托爾兄弟 (TOL) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to the Toll Brothers' first-quarter fiscal year 2025 conference call. (Operator instructions) And please note this event is being recorded.

早上好，歡迎參加 Toll Brothers 2025 財年第一季電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，此事件正在被記錄。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Douglas Yearly, CEO. Please go ahead, sir.

現在，我想將會議交給執行長道格拉斯·耶利先生。先生，請繼續。

Thank you, Chuck. Good morning. Welcome and thank you all for joining us. With me today are Marty Connor, Chief Financial Officer; Rob Parahus, President and Chief Operating Officer; Wendy Marlett, Chief Marketing Officer; and Greg Ziegler, Senior VP, Treasurer, and Head of Investor Relations.

謝謝你，查克。早安.歡迎並感謝大家的加入我們。今天和我在一起的是財務長 Marty Connor；總裁兼營運長 Rob Parahus；溫蒂‧馬萊特 (Wendy Marlett)，首席行銷長；以及資深副總裁、財務主管兼投資者關係主管 Greg Ziegler。

As usual, I caution you that many statements on this call are forward-looking based on assumptions about the economy, world events, housing and financial markets, interest rates, the availability of labor and materials, inflation, and many other factors beyond our control that could significantly affect future results. Please read our statement on forward-looking information in our earnings release of last night and on our website to better understand the risks associated with our forward-looking statements.

像往常一樣，我提醒您，本次電話會議中的許多陳述都是前瞻性的，基於對經濟、世界事件、住房和金融市場、利率、勞動力和材料的可用性、通貨膨脹以及許多其他我們無法控制的因素的假設，這些因素可能會對未來結果產生重大影響。請閱讀我們昨晚的收益報告和我們的網站上關於前瞻性資訊的聲明，以更好地了解與我們的前瞻性陳述相關的風險。

Last night we reported first quarter deliveries of 1,991 homes at an average price of $925,000 for home sales revenues of $1.84 billion. Our adjusted gross margin was 26.9% or 65 basis points better than guidance. And our SG&A expense as a percentage of home sales revenue was 13.1% or 40 basis points above guidance.

昨晚我們報告了第一季交付的 1,991 套房屋，平均價格為 925,000 美元，房屋銷售收入為 18.4 億美元。我們的調整後毛利率為 26.9%，比預期高出 65 個基點。我們的銷售、一般及行政開支佔房屋銷售收入的百分比為 13.1%，比預期高出 40 個基點。

While our net income and earnings per share came in below expectations, this was due primarily to impairments and a delay in the sale of a stabilized apartment property in one of our joint ventures. Our core home building operations met expectations in the quarter.

雖然我們的淨收入和每股收益低於預期，但這主要是由於我們的一家合資企業中的減值和穩定公寓物業的銷售延遲。我們的核心住宅建築業務本季達到了預期。

From a demand perspective, we signed 2,307 net contracts for $2.3 billion in the first quarter, up 13% in units and 12% in dollars compared to last year's very strong first quarter when contracts were up approximately 40% in both units and dollars on a per community basis, contracts were up 2% compared to last year.

從需求角度來看，我們在第一季度簽署了 2,307 份淨合同，價值 23 億美元，與去年非常強勁的第一季度相比，單位數增長了 13%，美元增長了 12%，而去年第一季度每個社區的合同單位數和美元數均增長了約 40%，與去年相比，合同數量增長了 2%。

We also continue to see a very healthy deposit conversion ratio in the first quarter with 82% of our deposits converted to sales, significantly higher than our five-year average of 70%. The average sales price of orders in our first quarter was approximately $1 million which was essentially unchanged compared to the fourth quarter of 2024.

我們也看到第一季的存款轉換率非常健康，其中 82% 的存款轉換為銷售額，遠高於我們五年平均值 70%。我們第一季的訂單平均銷售價格約為 100 萬美元，與 2024 年第四季相比基本保持不變。

On average, net pricing after incentives was flat in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. Geographically, first quarter demand was strongest in our north and mid-Atlantic regions from Boston to Atlanta, as well as Houston, Dallas, Boise, Denver, Las Vegas, and all of California.

平均而言，第一季的激勵後淨價格與 2024 年第四季相比持平。從地理位置來看，第一季需求最強勁的是北部和中大西洋地區，從波士頓到亞特蘭大，以及休士頓、達拉斯、博伊西、丹佛、拉斯維加斯和整個加州。

Among our buyer segments, both move up and first time luxury were up on a per community basis with a slight decline in empty nester. Although demand was solid in our first quarter, we have seen mixed results so far this spring selling season. While demand has remained healthy in many of our markets and particularly at the higher end, affordability constraints and growing inventories in certain markets are pressuring sales, especially at the lower end.

在我們的買家群體中，以社區計算，高檔買家和首次購房者的數量均有所增加，而空巢者的數量則略有下降。儘管第一季的需求強勁，但今年春季銷售季迄今的結果好壞參半。雖然我們許多市場（尤其是高端市場）的需求仍然強勁，但某些市場的承受能力限制和庫存增加正在給銷售帶來壓力，尤其是低端市場的銷售。

However, all that being said, we are somewhat encouraged by our sales activity this past week. Against this backdrop, we are carefully monitoring our pricing incentives, and spec inventory on a community by community basis. To match, to best match local selling conditions and to appropriately balance pace and price with a view towards generating higher returns in our overall business.

然而，話雖如此，我們對過去一週的銷售活動感到有些鼓舞。在此背景下，我們正在仔細監控我們的定價激勵措施，並根據社區情況制定庫存規格。為了匹配，最好地匹配當地的銷售條件，並適當平衡速度和價格，以期在我們的整體業務中產生更高的回報。

Based on our first quarter results, the gross margin embedded in our backlog and the mixed trends that we are seeing early in the spring selling season, we are maintaining all of our key home building guidance for the full year, including deliveries, average price, adjusted gross margin, SG&A margin, and community count growth.

根據我們第一季的業績、積壓訂單的毛利率以及春季銷售旺季初期的混合趨勢，我們維持全年所有關鍵房屋建築指導方針，包括交付量、平均價格、調整後的毛利率、銷售、一般及行政開支利潤率和社區數量增長。

We continue to see the long-term outlook for the new home market to be very positive, particularly for our luxury niche. Demand for our homes continues to be supported by our affluent customer base. Over 70% of our business is luxury move up and empty nester, which serves a wealthy cohort that has benefited from years of home price and stock market appreciation.

我們繼續看到新房市場的長期前景非常樂觀，特別是對於我們的豪華房地產市場。我們的住房需求持續受到富裕客戶群的支持。我們 70% 以上的業務是豪華升級和空巢老人，服務多年來受益於房價和股市升值的富裕群體。

The remaining 25% to 30% serves as a more affluent first time buyer, many of whom are older millennials buying their first home later in life when they have higher incomes and are more financially secure. Consistent with the past several quarters, approximately 26% of our buyers paid all cash in the first quarter, and the LTVs for buyers who took a mortgage was approximately 68%, also consistent with recent quarters.

剩下的 25% 到 30% 是較為富裕的首次購房者，其中許多人是年齡較大的千禧世代，他們在收入更高、經濟更穩定的時候購買了自己的第一套房子。與過去幾季的情況一致，第一季約有 26% 的買家支付了全額現金，而抵押貸款的買家的 LTV 約為 68%，也與最近幾季的情況一致。

Our contract cancellation rate in the first quarter remained low at 2.4% of beginning backlog. This industry low cancellation rate speaks to the financial strength of our buyers, as well as the sizable deposits they make and how emotionally invested they become as they personalize their homes at our design studios.

我們第一季的合約取消率仍然很低，僅為期初積壓訂單的 2.4%。這一行業最低的取消率說明了我們買家的財務實力，以及他們在我們的設計工作室個性化家居時所支付的巨額押金和投入的情感。

In the first quarter, our spec homes represented approximately 55% of sales. And 52% of deliveries and we had approximately 3,200 spec homes and inventory at quarter end. Overall, we are comfortable with this level of specs in our inventory and their stage of construction.

第一季度，我們的樣品屋約佔銷售額的 55%。交付率為 52%，季度末我們擁有約 3,200 套樣品屋和庫存。總體而言，我們對庫存的這種規格水準及其建造階段感到滿意。

As I mentioned, we are actively managing our spec starts, and we'll adjust them on a community by community basis based on local market conditions. This will mean fewer starts in some communities where inventories are building and may mean increased starts in other communities where demand has been strong. However, on a net basis, we do expect to reduce overall spec starts in the near term.

正如我所提到的，我們正在積極管理我們的規範啟動，並且我們將根據當地市場情況逐個社區地進行調整。這意味著，一些庫存正在增加的社區的開工數量會減少，而另一些需求強勁的社區的開工數量可能會增加。然而，從淨值來看，我們確實預期短期內整體投產開工量將會減少。

Remember, we sell our specs at various stages of construction from foundation board to finished home. One-third of our specs sell before framing is completed, so the risk profile and margin for these homes is not all that different from build to order homes.

請記住，我們出售的是建築各個階段的規格產品，從地基板到成品房屋。我們的三分之一房屋在結構完工前就已售出，因此這些房屋的風險狀況和利潤與按訂單建造的房屋並沒有太大區別。

In addition, many of our spec buyers have the opportunity to visit our design studios and personalize their homes with finishes that match their tastes. This benefits our margins as design studio upgrades tend to be highly accretive.

此外，許多符合我們規格的買家都有機會參觀我們的設計工作室，並使用符合他們品味的裝飾來個性化他們的家。這有利於我們的利潤，因為設計工作室的升級往往具有很高的增值性。

In the first quarter, design studio upgrades, structural options, plus lot premiums averaged $200,000 or 25% of our average base sales price as compared to the long-term average of about 21%. At first quarter end, we were operating from 406 communities, slightly below the 410 that we got it to last quarter. We continue to target 8% to 10% community count growth in fiscal 2025, which would put us at 440 to 450 communities by fiscal year end.

第一季度，設計工作室升級、結構選擇加上地塊溢價平均為 20 萬美元，占我們平均基本銷售價格的 25%，而長期平均約為 21%。截至第一季末，我們在 406 個社區開展業務，略低於上一季的 410 個。我們繼續將 2025 財年的社區數量成長目標定為 8% 至 10%，到財年末，我們的社區數量將達到 440 至 450 個。

In the quarter, we saw modest improvements in our construction cycle times, as we continue to focus on increasing production efficiency. We have not seen any immediate supply chain impacts from tariffs or labor shortages due to changes in immigration policies, although we are monitoring developments closely and will pivot as necessary to deal with any issues that arise.

本季度，由於我們繼續致力於提高生產效率，我們的施工週期略有改善。由於移民政策變化導致關稅或勞動力短缺，我們尚未看到對供應鏈產生任何直接影響，但我們正在密切關注事態發展，並將根據需要採取必要措施來處理出現的任何問題。

We have all learned valuable lessons from the supply chain shocks we navigated through a few years ago with the pandemic. Turning to land at the first quarter end, we owned or controlled approximately 77,700 lots, 56% of which were optioned. We are pleased that we continue to make progress in the quarter towards a goal of 60% optioned and 40% owned.

我們都從幾年前疫情期間經歷的供應鏈衝擊中吸取了寶貴的教訓。談到土地，截至第一季末，我們擁有或控制約 77,700 塊土地，其中 56% 已被選擇。我們很高興本季繼續取得進展，朝著 60% 期權和 40% 自有的目標邁進。

Our solid land position provides us flexibility and allows us to be highly selective and disciplined as we assess new land opportunities. Our underwriting standards for the new land continue to incorporate stringent thresholds for both margins and returns, and we continue to seek out land acquisition and development opportunities that allow us to be more capital efficient, including through increased use of option arrangements, land banks, joint ventures, and similar structures that allow us to defer payments and lot takedowns.

我們穩固的土地地位為我們提供了靈活性，使我們能夠在評估新的土地機會時做到高度選擇性和紀律性。我們對新土地的承保標準繼續包含嚴格的利潤和回報門檻，並且我們將繼續尋求土地收購和開發機會，使我們能夠提高資本效率，包括透過更多地使用選擇權安排、土地銀行、合資企業和類似的結構，使我們能夠推遲付款和地塊收購。

Our balance sheet is very healthy. We have increased liquidity, low net debt, and no significant debt maturity this fiscal year. As announced last week, we recently extended the maturities of our credit facilities to February 2030, and upsized our revolver to $2.35 billion.

我們的資產負債表非常健康。本財年，我們的流動性增加，淨債務較低，且沒有重大債務到期。正如上周宣布的那樣，我們最近將信貸期限延長至 2030 年 2 月，並將循環信貸規模增加至 23.5 億美元。

We also continue to expect strong cash flow generation from operations this year and reaffirm our $500 million of targeted full year share repurchases. We expect to continue investing in the growth of our business, while simultaneously returning excess capital to our shareholders.

我們也繼續預計今年的營運將產生強勁的現金流，並重申全年 5 億美元的股票回購目標。我們希望繼續投資於業務成長，同時將多餘的資本回饋給股東。

With that, I will turn it over to Marty.

說完這些，我將把麥克風交給 Marty。

Thanks, Doug. First quarter net income was $177.7 million or $1.75 per share diluted. These results were below expectations due to impairments and lower than projected joint venture, land sales, and other income. The miss on joint venture and other income was mainly due to a delay in the sale of a stabilized apartment building from one of our joint ventures.

謝謝，道格。第一季淨收入為 1.777 億美元，即每股攤薄收入 1.75 美元。由於減值以及低於預期的合資、土地銷售和其他收入，這些結果低於預期。合資企業和其他收入的未達預期主要是由於我們的一家合資企業的一棟穩定公寓樓的銷售延遲所致。

We now expect this sale, which is under contract to close in the second half of fiscal 2025. Positively, our core home building operations met expectations. In the first quarter, we delivered 1,991 homes at an average price of $925,000 and generated home sales revenue of $1.84 billion.

我們目前預計，這筆交易將於 2025 財年下半年完成。積極的一面是，我們的核心房屋建築業務符合預期。第一季度，我們交付了 1,991 套房屋，平均價格為 925,000 美元，創造了 18.4 億美元的房屋銷售收入。

The average price of homes delivered in the quarter was at the low end of our range due primarily to mix, as we delivered more homes in our mountain region and had fewer deliveries in the North and Pacific regions than we had projected.

本季度交付的房屋平均價格處於我們預期範圍的低端，這主要是由於房屋組合的原因，因為我們在山區交付的房屋數量比我們預期的要多，而北部和太平洋地區的交付量則比我們預期的要少。

As Doug mentioned, we signed 2,307 net agreements for $2.3 billion in the quarter. This was up 13% in units and 12% in dollars compared to the first quarter of fiscal year 2024. The average price of contracts signed in the quarter was approximately $1 million, which was essentially flat compared to both the fourth quarter of fiscal '24 and the same period last year.

正如 Doug 所提到的，我們在本季度簽署了 2,307 份淨協議，價值​​ 23 億美元。與 2024 財年第一季相比，單位數成長了 13%，美元成長了 12%。本季簽訂的合約平均價格約為 100 萬美元，與 24 財年第四季和去年同期相比基本持平。

Our first quarter adjusted gross margin was 26.9%, 65 basis points better than our guidance of 26.25%. Q1 gross margin exceeded our guidance due primarily to mix, increased operating efficiency and slightly better margin from sell and settle spec homes compared to what we had projected. All regions and all property segment project product segments exceeded our expectations.

我們第一季的調整後毛利率為 26.9%，比我們的預期 26.25% 高出 65 個基點。第一季的毛利率超過了我們的預期，主要原因是產品組合、營運效率的提高以及銷售和結算樣品房的利潤率略高於我們的預期。所有地區和所有房地產細分項目產品領域均超出了我們的預期。

Based on our first quarter results, the gross margin embedded in our backlog and the mixed trends that we are seeing early in the spring selling season, we are maintaining our full year adjusted gross margin guidance of 27.25%. We expect our second quarter adjusted gross margin to also be 27.25%. Write-offs in our home sale gross margin totaled $16.4 million in the quarter.

根據我們第一季的業績、積壓訂單的毛利率以及春季銷售旺季初期的混合趨勢，我們維持全年調整後毛利率 27.25% 的預期。我們預計第二季調整後的毛利率也將達到 27.25%。本季度，我們房屋銷售毛利率的註銷總額為 1,640 萬美元。

$3.9 million of these impairments were associated with pre-development cost on deals we are no longer pursuing. And the remaining $12.5 million was related to a handful of operating communities in various markets around the country. We also had $1.8 million of land sale impairments and $4.4 million of pre-development write-offs in other income related to apartment projects we are no longer pursuing.

其中 390 萬美元的減損與我們不再進行的交易的前期開發成本有關。剩下的 1250 萬美元與全國各市場的少數營運社區有關。我們還有 180 萬美元的土地銷售減損和 440 萬美元的開發前註銷其他收入，這些收入與我們不再進行的公寓項目有關。

SG&A as a percentage of revenue was 13.1% in the first quarter compared to our guide of 12.7%. Note that our SG&A margin in the first quarter is always higher, as it is generally our lowest revenue quarter and includes an accelerated employee stock-based compensation expense that only hits in that first quarter.

第一季銷售、一般及行政開支佔收入的百分比為 13.1%，而我們的預期為 12.7%。請注意，我們第一季的銷售、一般及行政開支利潤率始終較高，因為這通常是我們收入最低的季度，並且包括僅在第一季發生的加速員工股票薪酬費用。

The 40 basis point SG&A miss relative to our guidance was due to the loss of fixed cost leverage, due to lower than anticipated home building revenues, as well as due to higher than anticipated selling and marketing expenses in the quarter.

銷售、一般及行政開支相對於我們的預期低 40 個基點，是由於固定成本槓桿的損失、房屋建築收入低於預期以及本季度銷售和營銷費用高於預期。

Our tax rate in the first quarter was 19.7% or about 230 basis points lower than the guidance due entirely to the accounting benefit of stock compensation deductions on a lower base of pre-tax income. These stock compensation deductions will not repeat in the balance of the year.

我們第一季的稅率為 19.7%，比指導值低約 230 個基點，這完全是由於在較低稅前收入基數上扣除股票薪酬所帶來的會計效益。這些股票補償扣除不會在年度餘額中重複。

We ended the first quarter with over $2.3 billion of liquidity, including approximately $575 million of cash and $1.8 billion of availability under our revolving bank credit facility. We've added $400 million to that subsequent to the quarter end. As Doug mentioned, we increased the capacity of our revolving credit facility, and we also extended the maturities of both our revolver and our $650 million term loan to February 2030. We thank our banks for their continuing support.

截至第一季末，我們的流動資金超過 23 億美元，其中包括約 5.75 億美元現金和 18 億美元的循環銀行信貸額度下的可用資金。本季末之後，我們又增加了 4 億美元。正如 Doug 所提到的，我們增加了循環信貸額度，並且還將循環信貸和 6.5 億美元定期貸款的期限延長至 2030 年 2 月。我們感謝銀行的持續支持。

Our net debt to capital ratio was 21.1% at first quarter end. Down from 21.4% one year ago. We have no significant maturities of our long-term debt until fiscal 2026, when $350 million of notes come due this November. Our community count at quarter end was 406 compared to our guide of 410.

第一季末，我們的淨負債資本比率為 21.1%。比一年前下降了 21.4%。我們的長期債務在 2026 財年之前都沒有重大到期日，屆時 3.5 億美元的票據將於今年 11 月到期。本季末，我們的社區數量為 406，而我們的預期是 410。

Now let me turn to our forward guidance, which is subject to the usual caveats regarding forward-looking information. We are projecting fiscal 2025 second quarter deliveries of approximately 2,500 to 2,700 homes, with an average delivered price between $940,000 and $960,000.

現在讓我來談談我們的前瞻性指引，該指引受制於有關前瞻性資訊的通常警告。我們預計 2025 財年第二季交付約 2,500 至 2,700 套房屋，平均交貨價格在 940,000 美元至 960,000 美元之間。

For full fiscal year 2025, we are maintaining our projected deliveries to be between 11,200 and 11,600 homes, with an average price between $945,000 and $965,000.

對於 2025 財年全年，我們預計交付量在 11,200 至 11,600 套之間，平均價格在 945,000 美元至 965,000 美元之間。

As I noted earlier, we expect adjusted gross margin to be 27.25% for both the second quarter and the full year. We expect interest in cost of sales to be approximately 1.2% in the second quarter and for the full year. We project second quarter SG&A as a percentage of home sales revenues to be approximately 10.3%. For the full year, we continue to expect it to be 9.4% to 9.5%. Other income from unconsolidated entities and land sales gross profit in the second quarter is expected to break even.

正如我之前提到的，我們預計第二季和全年調整後的毛利率均為 27.25%。我們預計第二季和全年銷售成本的利息約為 1.2%。我們預計第二季銷售、一般及行政費用將佔房屋銷售收入的百分比約為 10.3%。就全年而言，我們繼續預計將增長 9.4% 至 9.5%。二季度其他非合併實體收入及土地銷售毛利預計將達到損益兩平。

We continue to expect $110 million for the full year, which includes the sale of several stabilized apartment projects in the second half. As noted earlier, we had planned to close one of these apartment sales in the first quarter. The sale is under contract and the transaction is now expected to close in the second half of the year.

我們繼續預計全年銷售額為 1.1 億美元，其中包括下半年出售幾個穩定的公寓項目。如前所述，我們計劃在第一季完成其中一套公寓的銷售。該銷售正在簽訂合同，預計交易將於今年下半年完成。

We project the second quarter tax rate to be approximately 26% and the full year rate to be approximately 25.5%. Based on land we currently own or control, we expect to grow community count by 8% to 10% by the end of fiscal 2025 and are targeting 440 to 450 communities. We expect to be operating from 415 selling communities at the end of the second quarter.

我們預計第二季稅率約為 26%，全年稅率約為 25.5%。根據我們目前擁有或控制的土地，我們預計到 2025 財年末社區數量將增加 8% 至 10%，目標是達到 440 至 450 個社區。我們預計到第二季末將有 415 個銷售社區開展業務。

Our weighted average share count is expected to be approximately 101 million shares for the second quarter and 100.5 million shares for the full year. This assumes we repurchase a targeted $500 million of common stock for the full year, with most of that occurring later in the year aligned with our anticipated higher cash flows.

我們預計第二季的加權平均股數約為 1.01 億股，全年加權平均股數約為 1.005 億股。這假設我們全年回購目標金額為 5 億美元的普通股，其中大部分將在今年稍後發生，與我們預期的更高現金流一致。

Now let me turn it back to Doug.

現在讓我把話題轉回給 Doug。

Thank you, Marty. Before I open it up for questions, I'd like to thank our Toll Brothers employees for their hard work, dedication, and commitment to our customers. Their talent and constant focus on our business is the driver of our long-term success.

謝謝你，馬蒂。在我開始提問之前，我想感謝我們的 Toll Brothers 員工的辛勤工作、奉獻精神和對客戶的承諾。他們的才華和對我們業務的持續關注是我們長期成功的驅動力。

Okay, Chuck, let's open it up to questions.

好的，查克，讓我們開始提問。

We will now begin the question and answer session.

我們現在開始問答環節。

(Operator instructions)

（操作員指令）

Steven Kim, Evercore ISI.

史蒂文金（Steven Kim），Evercore ISI。

Yeah, thanks very much guys. Appreciate the color. I guess I wanted to start off by just talking about your inventory. You talked about the fact that your spec levels where you were comfortable with them as well as the stage of construction and we can see that your specs actually came in a little lighter than we were expecting. So that all seems positive. That being said, your inventory did rise a lot, particularly the construction in progress, number rose pretty significantly.

是的，非常感謝大家。感謝色彩。我想先談談您的庫存。您談到了您對規格水平以及施工階段感到滿意的事實，我們可以看到，您的規格實際上比我們預期的要輕一些。因此，一切看起來都是正面的。話雖如此，你的庫存確實增加了很多，特別是在建工程數量增加得相當顯著。

And I was curious if you could talk about what drove that? Was there something about the land or the land on which you're building these homes, which has a greater value where are you just naturally, are you at a later stage of construction, but you're just comfortable with it? If you could help us understand sort of what's going into the much higher inventory number that we saw this quarter?

我很好奇，您能否談談促成這結果的因素？您建造這些房屋的土地是否有某些方面具有更高的價值，您是否自然而然地處於建設的後期階段，但您對此感到滿意？您能否幫助我們了解本季庫存數量大幅增加的原因是什麼？

Yes, Stephen, I think you hit it at it. I think we have more specs under construction and they're at a little bit further stage of completion stage of spend than they had been in prior years or more recently. And that's with an eye towards having the inventory to hit our 11,400 delivery guidance for this year.

是的，史蒂芬，我認為你成功了。我認為我們正在建設中的規格更多，而且與前幾年或最近幾年相比，它們的完成階段要稍微進一步一些。我們的目標是讓庫存達到我們今年 11,400 份的交貨預期。

And I thought you were going to continue there because you also had talked about the fact that you were looking to maybe slow down a little bit on your specs as you headed later the year, later in the year. Is this something that we should just, is this just the kind of the natural cadence that we should expect to see from you from this point forward as we go into the spring, just carrying more specs and that sort of thing and then sort of bringing that down as we go later in the year?

我以為你會繼續說下去，因為你也談到了這樣一個事實，隨著今年晚些時候的到來，你也許會放慢一點速度。這是我們應該做的嗎？

Steve, we definitely focus on seasonality when most buyers are in the market when most buyers want to move in, which is generally the summer months, and we try to time the start and the construction and, of course, then the completion of our spec inventory, so it lines up with seasonality, and I think that's what you're seeing right now.

史蒂夫，我們肯定會關注季節性，因為大多數買家都會在市場上，也就是大多數買家想要入住的時候，通常是夏季，我們會嘗試安排開工和施工的時間，當然，然後是我們的規格庫存的完成時間，所以它與季節性相一致，我認為這就是你現在看到的。

We have 3,200 spec homes that are at the beginning of framing or forward, so framing and beyond. And then we have about 1,000 specs that are sitting at foundation. Some of those are on hold it foundation where we haven't yet released them for framing. And then we have about 1,600 specs that are sitting at permit that have not been released yet for foundations to go in.

我們擁有 3,200 棟樣品房，這些住宅正處於框架建設的初期或後期。然後我們還有大約 1,000 個規格存放在基金會。其中有些仍處於擱置狀態，我們尚未發布它們進行框架設計。然後，我們還有大約 1,600 個規格處於等待許可狀態，但尚未發布供地基使用。

And this is all strategic. It's all based on the timing of the year. We're very comfortable with where the level stand. We did this on purpose to set up for the spring and for the summer delivery. Over time, short over short-term timing we do expect to cut back a bit on the new spec starts.

這一切都是戰略性的。一切都取決於一年的時間。我們對目前的水準非常滿意。我們特意這樣做是為了為春季和夏季的交付做好準備。隨著時間的推移，從短期來看，我們確實希望減少一些新規範的啟動。

So when I tell you that there are 1,600 at permit, but they've been held and are not authorized to go to foundation. We're keeping an eye on that closely. When I tell you there's 1,000 at foundation that haven't yet been released for framing, that's all strategic and intentional. It is all decided by market.

因此，當我告訴你有 1,600 人獲得許可，但他們被扣留並且無權前往基金會。我們正在密切關注此事。當我告訴你基金會有 1,000 個作品尚未發布用於裝框時，這都是有戰略意義和故意的。一切由市場決定。

There are some markets that are performing very well where we are actually increasing our spec activity in these other markets, as we've talked about, that have had more mixed results lately, where we are being more tempered. And so, this is the analysis we do. But at the moment, we are leaning more towards less spec starts than you've seen in the past.

有些市場表現非常好，我們實際上正在增​​加在這些其他市場的投機活動，正如我們已經討論過的，最近這些市場的結果好壞參半，我們在這些市場中採取了更加克制的態度。這就是我們所做的分析。但目前，我們更傾向於比過去更少的規格啟動。

I'd just add to that, Doug, it's even more specific than by market. It's by community, although the mentality often applies by market

我只想補充一點，道格，它比按市場劃分更具體。這是由社區決定的，儘管這種心態通常適用於市場

Yeah. That's very helpful. And it kind of leads into the next question I have, which is about the spring selling season. So you made the comment about it being mixed. And I think that, that is something that we've been hearing from a number of folks. I guess what I really wanted to understand is what is the company's posture relative to your production pipeline and your anticipated land spend over the next year or two, if the spring selling season continues to be mixed. Is this an environment which will cause you to have to pivot in some way? And if so, what kind of pivot or nudging the dial one way or the other, should we be expecting if the spring selling season remains mixed?

是的。這非常有幫助。這引出了我的下一個問題，關於春季銷售季節。所以你發表了關於它是混合的評論。我想，這是我們從很多人那裡聽到的。我真正想了解的是，如果春季銷售旺季繼續漲跌互現，那麼未來一兩年內公司在生產通路和預期土地支出方面的態勢將會如何。這種環境是否會迫使你以某種方式做出轉變？如果確實如此，如果春季銷售旺季依然保持好壞參半的局面，我們應該期待什麼樣的轉變或推動呢？

If the spring selling season remains mixed, the overall land spend will come down. We will become more conservative in certain markets in the underwriting of new land. As you know, and as we brag about all the time, we have a terrific pipeline of owned and optioned land. We are in great shape in all of our markets. We have the opportunity to be very selective.

如果春季銷售旺季仍漲跌不一，整體土地支出將會下降。在某些市場，我們將對新土地的承保採取更保守的態度。正如您所知，正如我們一直吹噓的那樣，我們擁有大量自有和可選土地。我們在所有市場都表現良好。我們有機會進行嚴格篩選。

While we haven't guided the 26 community count growth, I can tell you that the land we control today provides the opportunity to continue growing communities as we have the last few years without running out and finding any more land. So it's a very local business. We will still be active in the land buying business. But overall, the land spend would come down.

雖然我們還沒有指導 26 個社區數量的增長，但我可以告訴你，我們今天控制的土地為我們提供了繼續發展社區的機會，就像過去幾年一樣，不需要耗盡土地並找到更多的土地。所以這是一個非常本地化的業務。我們仍將積極從事土地購買業務。但整體而言，土地支出將會下降。

John Lovallo, UBS.

瑞銀的約翰·洛瓦洛。

Good morning guys. Thanks for taking my questions as well. Maybe just starting off on the gross margin. The second quarter gross margin outlook would seem to imply sort of steady fiscal year 2Q to 4Q gross margins to achieve that full year target of 27.25%. So I guess the question is, how are you thinking about incentives in that forecast? Are you assuming pretty fairly stable levels with what we saw in the first quarter?

大家早安。也感謝您回答我的問題。也許只是從毛利率開始。第二季的毛利率前景似乎意味著財年第二季至第四季的毛利率將保持穩定，以實現 27.25% 的全年目標。所以我想問題是，您是如何考慮該預測中的激勵措施的？您是否認為第一季的水平相當穩定？

Sure. So the second quarter gross margin with our guide jumping up to 27.25% is because we expect to have more specific, which is higher margin. We expect to have more luxury, which is higher margin and a bit less affordable luxury and empty nester or age targeted. So the mix aligns with that increased guide. When you look to the second half of the year, and obviously, it needs to be modestly above 27.25%.

當然。因此，我們預期第二季毛利率將躍升至 27.25%，因為我們預計會有更具體的利潤率。我們期望有更多利潤率更高的奢侈品，更少的廉價奢侈品和針對空巢老人或特定年齡層的奢侈品。因此，混合與增加的指南一致。當你展望下半年時，顯然它需要略高於 27.25%。

(inaudible). Just to comment that it's pretty steady. It's a pretty good.

（聽不清楚）。只是想評論一下，它非常穩定。這是相當不錯的。

Correct. Because the first quarter only had 2,000 deliveries, so the 26.9% is off of a smaller part of, it's not a quarter of the year, it's less than that. So we continue to see in the second half of the year pretty much what I just described, which is, more Pacific more North and North has been very high margin as the northern region, as we talked about, has been very strong, and we have more luxury than we have affordable and age targeted.

正確的。因為第一季只有 2,000 輛交付，所以 26.9% 只是佔全年較小部分的一小部分，不是全年的一個季度，而是比這個還要少。因此，我們在今年下半年繼續看到我剛才描述的情況，即太平洋地區的情況更多，北部地區的情況更多，而北部地區的利潤率一直很高，正如我們所討論的，北部地區的經濟一直很強勁，我們的豪華酒店比我們負擔得起的酒店和針對特定年齡段的酒店更多。

With respect to your question about our confidence level and how we have budgeted because we do recognize there are a number of sales that haven't occurred yet. We do have 6,300 homes in backlog. We have delivered 2,000 homes in the first quarter. So that is 8,300 of the 11.4%. I'm not saying every home in backlog delivers, but most of that delivers. But we do recognize that there are some homes that still have to be sold. Many of those are spec.

關於您關於我們的信心水平以及我們如何預算的問題，因為我們確實認識到有許多銷售尚未發生。我們確實有 6,300 套房屋積壓。我們在第一季交付了 2,000 套房屋。因此這佔 11.4% 中的 8,300。我並不是說每間積壓房屋都能交付，但大多數都能交付。但我們確實認識到仍有一些房屋尚未出售。其中許多都是規格。

All I'll tell you is we have a great level of confidence in the conservatism we have brought to the pricing, the incentivizing that needs to occur community by community, market by market to complete the year with the balance of those sales and still hit the guided margin.

我要告訴你們的是，我們對定價的保守性非常有信心，我們需要對每個社區、每個市場進行激勵，以平衡全年銷售額並達到指導利潤率。

Yeah, I'd add to that, John, that the specs we have with roughly 1,000 of them complete, and so the cost there is known. There's no variable variability in that cost and the specs we have under construction, which is another 2,300 or 2,400 behind that are contracted for and so the costs are pretty well locked down there, gives us further confidence in terms of what we will sell and settle from this point forward through the balance of the year. And we base our estimates based on what we're seeing in the market most recently for the balance of the year with some conservatism.

是的，約翰，我想補充一點，我們大約有 1,000 個完整的規格，因此成本是已知的。該成本和規格沒有可變的變化，我們正在建造的還有 2,300 或 2,400 個，落後於合約要求，因此成本已經相當確定，這讓我們對從現在開始到今年餘下時間的銷售和結算更加有信心。我們根據最近看到的市場情況對今年的餘額進行估算，並帶有一定的保守性。

Okay. So you're not assuming any relief from rates or any pullback in incentives is what I was trying to get at. Okay. That's, yes. That's helpful.

好的。所以，我試著表達的是，你並沒有認為利率會有任何降低，也沒有認為激勵措施會有任何撤回。好的。是啊。這很有幫助。

And then on the lower, some of the lower-priced inventory negatively impacting sales, I'm curious what price points specifically that you were seeing some of that competition? What markets you're referring to? I mean, we've heard from some of the more entry-level focused folks that the inventory at the very low level is still fairly limited. So I'm just curious where you guys were seeing that real competition intensifying.

然後，一些低價庫存對銷售產生了負面影響，我很好奇，您在具體哪些價格點看到了一些競爭？您指的是哪些市場？我的意思是，我們從一些更注重入門級的人那裡聽說，極低水準的庫存仍然相當有限。所以我只是好奇你們在哪裡看到了真正的競爭加劇。

Sure. So when we go down in price, it's not nearly as low as many of the other builders and what many define as a starter market. Our 25% to 30% of our business that is first-time buyer is still the affluent luxury end of the first-time buyer. They're a bit older, late 30s. They may have a combined family income of $200,000 and they can afford a $600,000, $700,000, $800,000 home, even in today's rate market.

當然。因此，當我們降低價格時，它遠不如許多其他建築商的價格低，也不像許多人所說的起步市場那麼低。我們的業務中 25% 到 30% 是首次購房者，他們仍然是首次購房者中的富裕奢侈品買家。他們年紀稍大一些，快 40 歲了。他們的家庭總收入可能為 20 萬美元，即使在今天的利率市場，他們也能負擔得起 60 萬美元、70 萬美元、80 萬美元的房子。

So we rarely go down into the territory where I think there's been the most pain and who's the most affordability pressure. I mentioned in my prepared comments are stronger markets. The softer markets in the first quarter included Jacksonville, Tampa, San Antonio, Phoenix, Reno, Salt Lake City and Portland, which are very small for us. But I will say, based on the last week or so of activity, and it's very early. This is a very fluid market.

因此，我們很少深入研究我認為最痛苦和承受能力壓力最大的領域。我在準備好的評論中提到了更強大的市場。第一季較為疲軟的市場包括傑克遜維爾、坦帕、聖安東尼奧、鳳凰城、雷諾、鹽湖城和波特蘭，這些市場對我們來說規模非常小。但我要說的是，根據過去一周左右的活動，現在還為時過早。這是一個非常流動的市場。

We are a bit encouraged by what's happened in the last week or so in several of these markets that were soft in Q1. So I would, if it was one week you're asking me about, I'd probably take Jacksonville, Tampa and even Phoenix off the list. But again, I'm not going to be all that bold because it's one week. But those would be the places where we're feeling the most pressure, particularly as you come down a bit in price.

我們對過去一周左右在第一季表現疲軟的幾個市場所取得的進展感到有些鼓舞。所以，如果您問我一周的話，我可能會將傑克遜維爾、坦帕甚至菲尼克斯從名單上劃掉。但我再說一遍，我不會那麼大膽，因為只有一週。但這些是我們感受到最大壓力的地方，特別是當價格下降的時候。

Trevor Allinson, Wolfe Research.

艾林森（Trevor Allinson），沃爾夫研究公司（Wolfe Research）。

Good morning and thank you for taking my questions. First, following up on the geographical question. Thinking about Southern California and Washington DC demand in those markets, Southern California with the wildfires and then DC with the [doge] impact on potential employment there. Have you started to see any impacts to either of those markets, either from the wildfires or just from overall employment uncertainty in DC?

早上好，感謝您回答我的問題。第一，繼續關注地理問題。考慮南加州和華盛頓特區在這些市場的需求，南加州遭受山火侵襲，而華盛頓特區則受到[doge]影響，這些因素對當地的潛在就業產生了影響。您是否已經開始看到這兩個市場受到的影響，無論是由於野火還是由於華盛頓特區的整體就業不確定性？

No. Washington DC, which for us is Maryland, Northern Virginia, it's strong, Southern Cal, strong.

不。華盛頓特區，對我們來說相當於馬裡蘭州，北維吉尼亞州，它很強大，南加州，也很強。

Okay. Great. It's good to hear. And then second, last fall, we consistently heard of buyers postponing home purchases, expecting rates to come down in 2025. And for your buyer who generally is not battling qualification issues with rates not moving lower here.

好的。偉大的。很高興聽到這個消息。第二，去年秋天，我們不斷聽到買家延後購屋的消息，他們預計 2025 年利率會下降。對於您的買家來說，他們通常不會遇到資格問題，因為這裡的利率也不會降低。

Are you starting to see a shift where some of those buyers that were maybe waiting before for rates to come down are starting to get back into the market and transact here? And then if not, can you talk about maybe what's holding them back? Is that still an expectation for rates to move lower or anything else to call out? Thanks.

您是否開始看到一種轉變：一些之前可能在等待利率下降的買家開始重返市場並在這裡進行交易？如果沒有的話，您能談談是什麼阻礙了他們嗎？這仍是預期利率會下降，或有其他值得警惕的情況？謝謝。

I think in some markets, we are seeing what you described. Our buyers are affluent. Nobody loves a six, seven, eight rate, but they can afford it and they've been waiting a long time. And I think if anything, they recognize now that rates are probably not going to move significantly lower this year. I think that's where the indications are, and it's time to move on with their lives. The kids have hit middle schools, time to get a bigger house and a more prestigious town with a better school district, and they're going to move forward.

我認為在某些市場，我們看到了您所描述的情況。我們的買家很富裕。沒有人喜歡六、七、八倍的利率，但他們可以負擔得起，而且他們已經等待很久了。我認為，如果有什麼不同的話，那就是他們現在意識到，利率今年可能不會大幅下降。我認為這就是跡象，是時候繼續他們的生活了。孩子們已經上了中學，是時候買更大的房子，去更有名望的城鎮，進入更好的學區，然後他們就可以繼續前進了。

Now that's not everywhere if it was, then it wouldn't be the mixed market that I have described. So in those areas where buyers are a bit more hesitant, I think it's, number one, those areas have had more significant price appreciation through the COVID years than other areas. So instead of a 40% to 50% price increase over the last five years, maybe they're in a market where there's been 60%, 70%, 80%, 100% price increase.

現在這並不是到處都存在的現象，如果是的話，那麼它就不會是我所描述的混合市場了。因此，在那些買家比較猶豫的地區，我認為，首先，這些地區在疫情期間的價格升值幅度比其他地區更為顯著。因此，他們所在的市場價格在過去五年中不是上漲了 40% 到 50%，而是上漲了 60%、70%、80% 甚至 100%。

And that includes Florida, primarily Austin, Texas, as an example, where we've seen prices up dramatically. And I think that can cause some concern to people that, boy, they just missed it, the price is up so much. That goes to affordability. There's markets where inventory levels are growing a bit. And so the resale market is not feeling as strong as it had in the past, and there are some fears about the ability to sell my home and they do they want to contract for a new move-up home when they're not as confident in selling their existing home as quickly or at the price that they thought they could sell it at.

其中包括佛羅裡達州，主要是德克薩斯州奧斯汀，這些地方的價格急劇上漲。我認為這可能會引起一些人們的擔憂，他們只是錯過了，價格上漲了這麼多。這與可負擔性有關。有些市場的庫存水準正在略有成長。因此，轉售市場並不像過去那麼強勁，而且人們對出售房屋的能力有些擔憂，當他們對快速出售現有房屋或以他們認為可以出售的價格出售現有房屋沒有信心時，他們是否想簽訂新的搬遷房屋合約。

A lot of this growing inventory in existing markets is not with used homes coming on the market. It's with more new spec inventory hitting the market from the builders. And so those markets where you have more national builders, there may be more inventory that those national builders have put on the market.

現有市場上不斷增長的庫存中有很多並不是二手房進入市場。隨著建築商推出更多新規格庫存，它們將湧入市場。因此，在擁有較多國內建築商的市場中，這些國內建築商可能向市場投放了更多庫存。

One of the reasons Boston down to Atlanta and particularly Boston down to the Carolinas has been so strong for us is because the resale market does not have a lot of the new home spec sitting on it because the big builders don't build there.

波士頓至亞特蘭大，特別是波士頓至卡羅來納州對我們如此強勁的原因之一是，轉售市場上沒有太多新房存量，因為大型建築商不在那裡建造房屋。

And so the resale market tends to be the older traditional resales, and there aren't a lot of those on the market and it's tight and the opportunity is to go new. And so that's one of the reasons the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic is so strong. So it's a really mixed story. Part of it is what you described, where there is, our people are ready to move. But in other areas, there's a bit of a hesitancy and we're just, we're managing through all of it.

因此，轉售市場往往是較傳統的轉售，市場上的轉售數量並不多，而且供不應求，機會在於開拓新的市場。這就是東北部、中大西洋地區如此強大的原因之一。所以這真是一個複雜的故事。其中一部分如你所描述的，哪裡有，哪裡就有我們的人員準備行動。但在其他領域，存在一些猶豫，我們只是在努力解決所有問題。

Trevor, the one thing I'd add to Doug's comments since you mentioned rates is that 26% of our buyers pay all cash. So the rate equation is of less relevance to them. And that is a really strong number for us.

特雷弗，既然你提到了利率，我想補充一點，那就是 26% 的買家都是全額現金支付。因此速率方程式對它們來說關係不大。對我們來說，這是一個非常強勁的數字。

And the LTV at 68% means people have the ability because of their financial strength to take a bit less mortgage at a higher rate and still make the move. And since we're selling here, let's not forget mom and dad. They are affluent and they are wanting to help their kids move up in life and support down payments or whatever else they can do through gifting to lower the mortgage amount.

68% 的 LTV 意味著人們有能力憑藉自己的財務實力以更高的利率承擔較少的抵押貸款並繼續採取行動。既然我們在這裡銷售，就不要忘記爸爸媽媽。他們很富裕，他們希望幫助他們的孩子提高生活水平，並支持首付或透過贈送其他東西來降低抵押貸款金額。

Mike Dahl, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Mike Dahl。

Morning, thanks for taking my questions. At the risk of asking you to extrapolate where none of us really want to extract late a day, a week, a few weeks. Given your comments on kind of both the mix, but then than the more recent week. Can you just help level set what, like quantify some level of trends quarter-to-date because typically, you would be up very significantly sequentially in terms of order pace. So how are you stacking up compared to that? What are you thinking in terms of a 2Q kind of pace how you're tracking?

早上好，感謝您回答我的問題。冒著要求您進行推斷的風險，我們實際上都不想提取晚一天，一周，幾週的時間。鑑於您對這兩種混合體的評論，但比最近一周更是如此。您能否幫助設定一些水平，例如量化本季迄今為止的某些趨勢，因為通常情況下，您的訂單速度會連續顯著上升。那麼與此相比，您的表現如何？就第二季的追蹤速度而言，您認為如何？

Yes. As you know, Mike, we're hesitant to give sales guidance, but I'll tell you that we believe that we will hit, we can hit. The market is there to hit with the margin we talked about and with, we balance pace and price. We are not margin proud. We want to drive returns, but we're also, we have a good mix, and it's working really well and we're going to continue to execute upon this strategy to stay in the middle lane between price and pace. And we think we will hit 3,000 contracts in Q2, which is 2.4 agreements per month. And there you have it. Right, Marty?

是的。如你所知，麥克，我們不願意給出銷售指導，但我可以告訴你，我們相信我們會達到目標，我們能夠達到目標。市場已經達到了我們談論的利潤率，我們平衡了速度和價格。我們並不以利潤為傲。我們希望提高回報，但我們也擁有良好的組合，而且效果非常好，我們將繼續執行這項策略，保持在價格和速度之間的中間地帶。我們預計第二季我們將達成 3,000 份合同，即每月 2.4 份協議。一切就緒了。對吧，馬蒂？

Yes. I think that's an achievable number without much move in the pricing of the homes.

是的。我認為，在房價沒有太大波動的情況下，這個數字是可以實現的。

Correct.

正確的。

Okay. So status quo, 3,000 got it. In terms of then the spec dynamics, Marty, I think you mentioned kind of modest upside to spec margins as a driver for 1Q. Can you give us an update, and I know you've got kind of mix adjusted numbers like-for-like. There's a lot of things that go into the spec spread when you consider which specific loss you're building on. Can you give us an update on kind of where those margin spreads are on the specs versus (inaudible) to order right now?

好的。因此現狀是，3,000 人得到了它。就規格動態而言，馬蒂，我認為您提到了規格利潤率的適度上行是第一季的驅動因素。您能否向我們提供最新情況，我知道您已經獲得了類似的混合調整數字。當你考慮所基於的具體損失時，有很多因素會影響到規格價差。您能否向我們介紹一下目前規格與訂單（聽不清楚）之間的保證金差價情況？

Mike, I'll take this one. Spec margin is still running, as we talked in the past about 200 to 250 basis points below average. We're comfortable with that. We did a little better in the first quarter, which is why the margin was up. And when we look at our spec that is now in our backlog that we'll be delivering at some point here. One of the reasons we're comfortable with our guide going forward is because it's doing a bit better than that.

麥克，我要這個。規格保證金仍在運行，正如我們過去所談到的，低於平均 200 到 250 個基點。我們對此感到滿意。我們在第一季的表現稍好一些，這就是利潤率上升的原因。當我們查看現在積壓的規格時，我們會在某個時間點交付。我們對我們的未來指南感到滿意的原因之一是因為它的表現比那更好。

On a related subject, which also includes spec, let's talk about incentives a little bit. The average incentive in Q4 of '24 was $68,000. The average incentive in Q1 of '25 was $62,000, so came in by 6,000. We ended Q1 '25 or started Q2 '25 with an incentive at $55,000. So it had come down another 7,000 from the average in Q1.

在相關主題上，其中也包括規格，我們來稍微談談激勵措施。24 年第四季的平均獎勵為 68,000 美元。25 年第一季的平均獎勵為 62,000 美元，因此增加了 6,000 美元。我們在 2025 年第一季結束時或 2025 年第二季開始時的獎勵為 55,000 美元。因此，它比第一季的平均值又下降了 7,000。

And with the mixed market we have described, in some markets, we're raising prices and cutting incentives. But in other markets, we know we will be giving back some of that improvement to take it back to what might have been the average in Q1. And we have, all of that built in, plus some additional cushion when we talk about the returns we expect over the balance of the year. So that's where things stand right now.

對於我們所描述的混合市場，在某些市場，我們正在提高價格並削減激勵措施。但在其他市場，我們知道我們將放棄一些改進，以使其回到第一季的平均水平。而且，當我們談論預計全年剩餘回報時，我們已經將所有這些都考慮在內，另外還增加了一些額外的緩衝。這就是目前的情況。

Michael Rehaut, J.P. Morgan.

摩根大通的麥可‧雷豪特 (Michael Rehaut)。

Great, thanks for taking my questions. Good morning, everyone. I just wanted to circle back to your comment of mixed results, and I think there was a question about if those mix results were to continue, how would that affect the rest of the year?

太好了，謝謝您回答我的問題。大家早安。我只是想回到你對混合結果的評論，我認為有一個問題是，如果這些混合結果繼續下去，那將如何影響今年剩餘時間？

And the answer that you gave it was interesting in that it didn't it appeared that your reiteration of full year guidance is, in some ways, I guess, kind of incorporating the current state of mixed results. In other words, kind of reflecting where we are today. So I wanted to know if that kind of my take on that is kind of accurate.

而您給出的答案很有趣，因為看起來您對全年指引的重申在某種程度上並沒有考慮到當前混合結果的狀態。換句話說，這反映了我們今天的狀況。所以我想知道我的看法是否準確。

And in other words, with maybe the present state where you just described you're maybe raising prices in some communities, raising incentives than others. If that current state again, some of the mix of pricing actions here anticipating in response to that mixed results type of dynamic, if that's all kind of incorporated in your current guide?

換句話說，也許就像您剛才描述的現在的情況一樣，您可能在某些社區提高了價格，在其他社區提高了激勵措施。如果再次出現當前狀態，那麼這裡的一些定價行動組合預計將響應這種混合結果類型的動態，如果這些都包含在您目前的指南中？

Yes. We are anticipating, with the guidance we have given for the second quarter and the full year, we have assumed a continuation of this mixed market.

是的。我們預計，根據我們對第二季和全年的預測，這種混合市場將持續下去。

Right. Okay. That's helpful. And I think important just to obviously stated explicitly.

正確的。好的。這很有幫助。我認為明確地說明這一點很重要。

I think it's also important to remember, our backlog is two-third of what we have left to go, right? So we're really talking about the other 3,000, 3,300 homes that we haven't sold and settled yet that have the, I'll say, variability and potential to impact positively or negatively are margin guidance.

我認為同樣需要記住的是，我們的積壓工作量是剩餘工作的三分之二，對嗎？因此，我們實際上談論的是尚未出售和結算的另外 3,000 至 3,300 套房屋，這些房屋具有可變性和對利潤率指引產生積極或消極影響的潛力。

Right. No, that's fair as well. And I guess it was very helpful, Doug, in terms of walking through the dollar percent, the dollars of incentives, 4Q, 1Q and where you stand today, which is pretty impressive, all the, I guess, just to level set that. What was the average incentive in fiscal '24? And I guess, with any kind of forward-looking view on land cost inflation. How are you thinking about land cost inflation this year and perhaps next year?

正確的。不，這也很公平。道格，我想這非常有幫助，就美元百分比、激勵金額、第 4 季、第 1 季以及您目前所處的位置而言，這非常令人印象深刻，我想，所有這些只是為了設定水平。'24 財年的平均激勵措施是多少？我想，這對土地成本通膨有前瞻性的看法。您認為今年以及明年的土地成本通膨情況如何？

Q1 of '24, Gregg Ziegler tells me our incentive was $55,000. And I'm sorry, Mike, that I was focused on that number, trying to get it for you. What was the other?

24 年第一季度，Gregg Ziegler 告訴我我們的獎勵是 55,000 美元。很抱歉，麥克，我太關注那個號碼了，想幫你得到它。其他的是什麼？

Land cost inflation, what do we think?

土地成本上漲，我們該怎麼想？

Thank you, apologies. Very happy with deal flow. We continue to find good action with our strict underwriting of a combination score of gross margin and IRR. It's modest, I would say, low to mid-single digit if I had, that's where I think it is. Mike, it's, I'm very pleased. We've had very unique opportunities lately in the land game.

謝謝，抱歉。對交易流程非常滿意。透過嚴格承保毛利率和內部收益率 (IRR) 的組合評分，我們繼續取得了良好的業績。我想說，這個數字比較適中，如果我有的話，應該是低到中等個位數，我認為就是這樣。麥克，我很高興。我們最近在陸地比賽中獲得了非常獨特的機會。

A lot of suburban office that is half occupied and is better suited to be torn down and rebuilt as residential with towns embracing that because they don't want to look at a blinded half empty office building anymore with the weeds growing and they'd rather have some vibrancy and some people.

許多郊區的辦公室只有一半被佔用，更適合被拆除並重建為住宅，而城鎮則接受這種做法，因為他們不想再看到雜草叢生、空蕩蕩的辦公大樓，他們寧願看到一些活力和一些人。

And we're seeing a lot of cool deal flow around that, which is more infill. The entitlements are a bit easier and more predictable and the margins have been great. So that's just one example. But there's a lot of that going on, and we're really well suited for those kind of unique deals with the way we go about it and as attractive as Toll Brothers is to many municipalities. So I'm very pleased in the land side and the inflation is low.

我們看到圍繞這一領域有很多很酷的交易流程，它們更具填充性。福利變得更容易一些，更可預測一些，利潤也很高。這只是一個例子。但這樣的情況還有很多，我們處理問題的方式確實非常適合這類獨特的交易，而且 Toll Brothers 對許多城市來說都很有吸引力。因此，我對陸地方面非常滿意，而且通貨膨脹率很低。

And Mike, since we've focused a lot about our projections for this year, that low inflation cost is not relevant to our projections for this year. The land we have in the projections for this year is already known. It's not going to be impacted by any inflationary pressures.

麥克，由於我們重點關注了今年的預測，因此低通膨成本與我們今年的預測無關。我們今年預測的土地數量已經知道了。它不會受到任何通膨壓力的影響。

And next year for the most part, it's hard to turn raw land into houses in less than 18 months

明年，大部分情況下，在不到 18 個月的時間內，很難將未開發土地變成房屋

Jesse Letterman, Zelman and Associates.

傑西·萊特曼，澤爾曼及其同事。

Actually, it's Ivy. Good morning. So I think with Michael Rehaut and others might be trying to get to just to circle back to guidance. Is that going into the year at the end of your fourth quarter and giving guidance for 1Q. You didn't know the market was going to be mixed. And now the market is mixed, but yet your outlook for earnings did not change.

事實上，她是 Ivy。早安.因此我認為 Michael Rehaut 和其他人可能正在嘗試重新回到指導。這是在第四季末進入年底並對第一季做出指導嗎？你不知道市場將會變得混亂。現在市場漲跌互現，但您的獲利前景卻沒有改變。

And I guess the question is what were you incorporating as you gave that forecast for the original guidance? I think that's the disconnect. But I think, Marty, maybe you explained it because this year is only going to have one quarter that could be at risk. So is that the framework that we should be thinking about? Just to circle back there. And then I have a follow-up.

我想問題在於，您在給出最初的指導預測時考慮了哪些因素？我認為這就是脫節之處。但我認為，馬蒂，也許你已經解釋過了，因為今年只有一個季度可能面臨風險。那麼這就是我們應該考慮的框架嗎？回到那裡。然後我有一個後續問題。

Sure. Great to hear your voice, Ivy. If you guys remember back in the fall, we were hinting towards a 27.50% gross margin in '25. And then when we give more definitive guidance in December, we cut that back modestly by 25 points to the 27.25%. So there was a little bit of conservatism in December when we were thinking about where the market was.

當然。很高興聽到你的聲音，艾薇。如果你們還記得的話，去年秋天我們曾暗示25年的毛利率將達到27.50%。然後，當我們在 12 月給予更明確的指導時，我們會將其小幅下調 25 個百分點至 27.25%。因此，當我們在思考市場狀況時，12 月的時候，我們有點保守。

We felt better in December, but we had a bad, we had a bad September and October as rates had jumped up and as we were heading into the election. So I wouldn't say we were euphoric in December, we were still cautious. And we were hopeful. And now that we sit here in mid-February, the results have been a bit more mixed than we thought, but we're still doing okay.

12 月我們感覺好一些，但 9 月和 10 月的情況很糟糕，因為利率上漲，而且我們即將迎來大選。因此，我不會說我們 12 月很興奮，我們仍然很謹慎。我們充滿希望。如今已是二月中旬，結果比我們想像的複雜一些，但我們做得還不錯。

And we're outperforming, frankly. Our spec pricing has been a bit better. There's more luxury coming in the second half of the year, as we've talked about. There's more North and Pacific coming. So, we're just feeling good about where we are so all I can tell you. And part of that might have been a little bit of a little bit of conservatism that we built into what we said in December, which I'm glad we did.

坦白說，我們的表現非常出色。我們的規格定價已經稍微好一點了。正如我們所討論的，今年下半年將會有更多奢侈品推出。還有更多北部和太平洋風暴來襲。所以，我們對目前的狀況感覺很好，我可以告訴你一切。其中一部分原因可能是我們在 12 月的演講中融入了一點保守主義，我很高興我們這樣做了。

Got it. No, that's helpful. And I think going back to the last question on land. I just don't know if you can quantify for us how much land still remains that would have been purchased pre-COVID. And if, in fact, there is a decent amount still that you will be able to go vertical on at low-cost basis.

知道了。不，這很有幫助。我想回到關於陸地的最後一個問題。我只是不知道您是否可以為我們量化一下，在疫情之前可以購買的土地數量還有多少。如果事實上仍有相當多的量，你將能夠以低成本進行垂直營運。

I think, we like the term contracted for rather than purchased, Ivy, just to be clear because some of it might have been purchased more recently, but based on the price that we set pre-COVID. We use December of 2020 as our pre and post-COVID and we think it's approximately 30% of our land bank right now is still priced pre-COVID, 50% of what we owned and 40% of what we settled.

我認為，我們更喜歡採用簽約而非購買的方式，Ivy，這樣更清楚，因為其中一些可能是最近購買的，但基於我們在 COVID 之前設定的價格。我們將 2020 年 12 月作為新冠疫情前後的數據，我們認為目前我們大約 30% 的土地儲備仍以新冠疫情之前的價格定價，我們擁有的土地儲備的 50% 和我們結算的土地儲備的 40%。

Rafi Jadrosich, Bank of America.

美國銀行的拉菲‧賈德羅西奇 (Rafi Jadrosich)。

Hi, good morning, it's Rafe. Thanks for taking my question.

嗨，早上好，我是 Rafe。感謝您回答我的問題。

How are you, Rafe.

你好嗎，雷夫。

Just kind of following up on the comment about the kind of current absorption pace and the demand trends have been a little bit more mixed. If we see sort of the absorption pace, kind of stay like this over the intermediate term or over the next few quarters. Do you still think that you'll be able to hold this 27% gross margin range or if the absorption sort of stays at this level, you mentioned that you're not margin proud. Would you kind of push or lean a little bit more into incentives?

只是對當前吸收速度和需求趨勢的評論進行一些後續跟進，情況有些複雜。如果我們看到吸收速度，那麼在中期或未來幾季內就會保持這種狀態。您是否仍認為您能夠保持 27% 的毛利率範圍，或者如果吸收率保持在這個水平，您提到您對利潤率並不滿意。您會推動或更傾向於激勵措施嗎？

Well, we're not going to guide beyond '25. We're very confident in what we've given all of you for the second quarter and the balance of the year. You say that this market sticks. I think if this market stick, since we already said we've, we're assuming it sticks with the guide we've given, then we are confident in this range of margin. However, to take it to the next level, if the market is better, you're going to see better margins out of us because we're, we love grades and prices.

嗯，我們不會再指導 25 年以後的事了。我們對第二季以及全年的業績非常有信心。你說這個市場堅挺。我認為，如果這個市場堅持下去，因為我們已經說過，我們假設它堅持我們給予的指導，那麼我們對這個利潤範圍充滿信心。然而，從另一個角度來說，如果市場好轉，你會看到我們的利潤率會更高，因為我們喜歡等級和價格。

Nothing, no better way to create urgency than price increase coming next Monday. And if the market was to soften, we're not going to stand proud and not sell homes and try to hang on to a margin that's not attainable. We're going to manage our business, which means there will be an intelligent, thoughtful local decision being made between pace and price. And that's how we go about it.

沒有什麼比下週一漲價更能製造緊迫感的了。如果市場變得疲軟，我們不會袖手旁觀，不出售房屋，並試圖保留無法實現的利潤。我們將管理我們的業務，這意味著我們將在速度和價格之間做出明智、深思熟慮的本地決策。這就是我們的做法。

We are encouraged. I talked about how the incentive had come down as we started Q2 and how we're able to keep that incentive down in some markets, but we might have to get some of it back in others. We've already begun doing a little bit of that, and we are encouraged with the elasticity of demand, meaning as we throw a few more bucks at it, buyers are responding. And that is certainly a good sign. There's nothing worse than the inelasticity or it doesn't matter what you do, the buyers are on the sidelines. So we are encouraged by what we're seeing in those markets that have required a little bit more of an incentive.

我們深受鼓舞。我談到了我們在第二季開始時激勵措施是如何下降的，以及我們如何能夠在某些市場保持較低的激勵水平，但我們可能必須在其他市場恢復部分激勵措施。我們已經開始做了一些這方面的工作，我們對需求的彈性感到鼓舞，這意味著當我們投入更多的資金時，買家就會做出反應。這無疑是個好兆頭。沒有什麼比缺乏彈性更糟糕的了，否則無論你做什麼，買家都會袖手旁觀。因此，我們對那些需要更多誘因的市場所看到的情況感到鼓舞。

Thank you. That's helpful. And then just on the SG&A, you called out that it was higher in the first quarter. Some of it just has to do with lower deliveries, but also higher selling expenses. And then you still have deleverage in the second quarter as well, but then leverage in the second half of the year. Can you just talk about what's driving it higher in the first half [because] of where does the leverage come from in the second half and how we think about just SG&A dollar inflation going forward?

謝謝。這很有幫助。然後僅就銷售、一般及行政費用而言，您指出第一季的費用較高。部分原因不僅在於交付量降低，還在於銷售費用增加。然後，第二季仍會去槓桿，但下半年會升槓桿。您能否談談上半年推動其上漲的原因，下半年的槓桿來自哪裡，以及我們如何看待未來銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 美元通膨？

Sure. The biggest driver, we had a little bit of a creep in sales and marketing expenses, but the biggest driver is just the leverage off of revenue. In the second half of 2025, we expect $6.6 billion of revenue. In the second half of 2024, we had $6 billion of revenue. So we have $600 million more revenue in the second half of '25 than '24, and the SG&A was 8.6% in the second half of '24, and so we believe it's going to be in the low 8s for the second half of '25 based off of leverage with that additional revenue I just described, and that is what brings home the full year guide.

當然。最大的驅動因素是，我們的銷售和行銷費用略有增加，但最大的驅動因素還是收入的槓桿作用。2025 年下半年，我們預計營收為 66 億美元。2024 年下半年，我們的營收為 60 億美元。因此，2025 年下半年我們的收入比 2024 年多 6 億美元，2024 年下半年的銷售、一般及行政費用為 8.6%，因此我們認為，基於槓桿作用加上我剛才描述的額外收入，2025 年下半年的收入將在 8% 出頭，這就是全年指南的內容。

Sam Reid, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的薩姆·里德。

Sam we can't hear you.

山姆，我們聽不到你的聲音。

Sam Reid, your line is muted

Sam Reid，你的線已靜音

Alex Barron, Housing Research Center.

住房研究中心亞歷克斯·巴倫 (Alex Barron) 說。

Yes, thank you. Good morning guys.

是的，謝謝。大家早安。

Good morning, Alex.

早安，亞歷克斯。

I wanted to ask about your specs. Are they mainly concentrated in your lower price points? Or are they across all price points?

我想問你的規格。它們主要集中在你們的較低價格點嗎？或者說它們涵蓋了所有價位嗎？

They're across all price points, but they lean a little bit towards the affordable luxury side because we, I think we're more comfortable at specking $800,000 houses than we are in $2 million or $3 million houses. But we have, it's across the board, but it leans a little bit to the more affordable end.

它們涵蓋了所有價位，但更偏向於可負擔的豪華房屋，因為我認為，與 200 萬美元或 300 萬美元的房子相比，我們更願意購買 80 萬美元的房子。但我們已經涵蓋了所有領域，但稍微偏向更實惠的範圍。

Got it. And in terms of you guys stepping on the brakes, I guess, on new permitting or new specs, I think that makes a lot of sense. Is it your sense that other builders are starting to do that as well? And can you quantify, are you guys just talking about delaying what you've already sort of expect and started? Or are you how can we get our arms around what stepping on the brakes would mean for you?

知道了。至於你們在新的許可或新的規格上踩剎車，我想，這是很有意義的。您是否覺得其他建築商也開始這麼做了？你能量化一下嗎，你們只是在談論推遲已經預期並開始的事情嗎？或者您如何理解踩剎車對您來說意味著什麼？

Yes. We may be pumping the brakes a little bit. I don't think we're stepping on the brakes, but, we are, it's a fair comment. And Alex, I don't think we have enough intelligence in the field yet to be able to give you a definitive answer on whether the other builders are similarly pumping the brakes. I am encouraged by some builders' comments on earnings calls or elsewhere that they too are being a bit more cautious in their specs starts.

是的。我們可能稍微踩了煞車。我不認為我們在踩剎車，但是，我們確實在踩剎車，這是一個公平的評論。亞歷克斯，我認為我們目前還沒有足夠的資訊來給你一個明確的答案，即其他建築商是否也在採取類似的踩剎車措施。一些建築商在收益電話會議或其他地方的評論令我感到鼓舞，他們在規格啟動方面也更加謹慎了。

This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to management for any closing remarks. Please go ahead.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議交還給管理階層，以便他們發表結束語。請繼續。

Chuck, thank you very much. Thanks everyone for your interest and support. As you all know, we are always here to answer any questions you may have individually. And stay warm. I think we're 24 degrees in Philadelphia today, or I hope you're somewhere where it is warm. Take care. Thank you.

查克，非常感謝你。感謝大家的關注與支持。眾所周知，我們隨時準備為您單獨解答任何問題。保持溫暖。我認為今天費城的氣溫是 24 度，或者我希望你在某個溫暖的地方。小心。謝謝。

The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。