托爾兄弟 (TOL) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Toll Brothers fourth quarter fiscal year 2025 conference call. (Operator Instructions) The company is planning to end the call at 9:30 when the market opens. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.

早上好，歡迎參加 Toll Brothers 2025 財年第四季電話會議。（操作員指示）公司計劃在市場開盤時（9:30）結束電話會議。（操作說明）請注意，本次活動正在錄影。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Douglas Yearley, CEO. Please go ahead.

現在我謹將會議交給執行長道格拉斯·耶利先生。請繼續。

Thank you, Drew. Good morning. Welcome, and thank you all for joining us. With me today are Rob Perrehouse, President and Chief Operating Officer; Wendy Marlett, Chief Marketing Officer; and Gregg Ziegler, our new Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，德魯。早安.歡迎各位，感謝你們的參與。今天陪同我出席的有總裁兼營運長羅伯·佩雷豪斯；首席行銷長溫蒂·馬利特；以及我們新任財務長格雷格·齊格勒。

While Greg has been on these calls for many years, this is his first as our CFO. Congratulations, Greg.

雖然格雷格多年來一直參與這些電話會議，但這是他作為我們財務長的第一次會議。恭喜你，格雷格。

Thank you, Doug.

謝謝你，道格。

As usual, I caution you that many statements on this call are forward-looking based on assumptions about the economy, world events, housing and financial markets, interest rates, the availability of labor and materials, inflation and many other factors beyond our control that could significantly affect future results.

像往常一樣，我要提醒各位，本次電話會議中的許多陳述都是基於對經濟、世界事件、住房和金融市場、利率、勞動力和原材料供應、通貨膨脹以及許多其他我們無法控制的因素的假設，這些因素可能會對未來的業績產生重大影響。

Please read our statement on forward-looking information in our earnings release of last night and on our website to better understand the risks associated with our forward-looking statements. Overall, I am pleased with our performance in fiscal 2025.

請閱讀我們昨晚發布的盈利報告中以及我們網站上關於前瞻性資訊的聲明，以便更好地了解與我們的前瞻性聲明相關的風險。總體而言，我對我們在 2025 財年的表現感到滿意。

We executed well and produced another year of strong results, notwithstanding a difficult sales environment. We delivered 11,292 homes at an average price of $960,000, generating a record $10.8 billion of home sales revenues.

儘管銷售環境艱難，但我們執行得當，又取得了一年的強勁業績。我們交付了 11,292 套住房，平均售價為 96 萬美元，創造了 108 億美元的房屋銷售收入紀錄。

We posted an adjusted gross margin of 27.3%, an SG&A margin of 9.5% and earnings of $13.49 per diluted share. We grew our community count by 9%, continued to produce strong operating cash flows of $1.1 billion and returned approximately $750 million to stockholders through share repurchases and dividends and generated a return on beginning equity of 17.6%.

我們公佈的調整後毛利率為 27.3%，銷售、管理及行政費用率為 9.5%，稀釋後每股收益為 13.49 美元。我們的社區成員數量增加了 9%，繼續產生強勁的經營現金流，達到 11 億美元，並透過股票回購和分紅向股東返還了約 7.5 億美元，並實現了 17.6% 的期初權益回報率。

These are the results that our entire team can be so proud of, and I'm grateful for the hard work and dedication that made these results possible.

這些成果令我們整個團隊感到無比自豪，我感謝大家為取得這些成果所付出的辛勤努力和奉獻精神。

In our fourth quarter, we met or exceeded guidance across all of our core homebuilding metrics, generating $3.4 billion in home sales revenue with an adjusted gross margin of 27.1% and an SG&A margin of 8.3%.

在第四季度，我們所有核心住宅建設指標均達到或超過了預期，實現了 34 億美元的住宅銷售收入，調整後的毛利率為 27.1%，銷售、一般及行政費用率為 8.3%。

We earned $4.58 per diluted share, which was modestly below guidance, primarily due to the delayed closing of the sale of our Apartment Living business that we announced back in September.

我們每股攤薄收益為 4.58 美元，略低於預期，主要原因是我們在 9 月宣布的公寓生活業務出售交易的完成時間有所延遲。

We expect to complete this transaction by the end of the first quarter and to completely exit the multifamily business over the next few years.

我們預計在第一季末完成這項交易，並在未來幾年內徹底退出多戶住宅業務。

Our fourth quarter and full year results demonstrate that our luxury business is differentiated as we serve a more affluent customer who was less impacted by the affordability pressures that continue to impact the broader housing market.

我們的第四季和全年業績表明，我們的奢侈品業務具有差異化優勢，因為我們服務的客戶更加富裕，他們受到的負擔能力壓力影響較小，而這種壓力仍在持續影響更廣泛的住房市場。

These results also underscore the resilience of our business model. Our results over the past few years and especially this last year, have proven that our business model and strategy can produce strong returns in good markets and bad.

這些結果也凸顯了我們商業模式的韌性。過去幾年，特別是去年，我們的業績證明，我們的商業模式和策略無論在市場行情好壞的情況下都能帶來豐厚的回報。

To illustrate this point, we started fiscal 2025 with fewer than 6,000 homes and $6.5 billion in backlog, down 9% in units and 7% in dollars from the prior year.

為了說明這一點，我們在 2025 財年開始時，房屋數量不足 6,000 套，積壓訂單達 65 億美元，比前一年減少了 9%（房屋數量）和 7%（金額）。

Yet in fiscal 2025, we delivered a record 11,292 homes and $10.8 billion in home sales revenues, a 4% in units and 3% in dollars despite a soft market throughout the year. We did this while maintaining an attractive adjusted gross margin of 27.3% and an operating margin of 15.7%.

然而，在 2025 財年，儘管全年市場疲軟，我們仍然交付了創紀錄的 11,292 套住房，住房銷售收入達到 108 億美元，按數量計算增長了 4%，按金額計算增長了 3%。我們實現了這個目標，同時維持了27.3%的調整後毛利率和15.7%的營業利潤率。

Our business today is more nimble, thanks in large part to the broadening of our geographies and product lines and price points as well as our shift to a more balanced portfolio of build-to-order and spec homes, all of which have helped us bring down construction cycle times improve inventory turns and gain efficiencies in the land development and construction processes.

如今，我們的業務更加靈活，這在很大程度上要歸功於我們地域、產品線和價格點的拓展，以及我們向更加平衡的定制住宅和現房組合的轉變，所有這些都幫助我們縮短了施工週期，提高了庫存週轉率，並提高了土地開發和施工流程的效率。

Our spec strategy has also allowed us to appeal to buyers looking for a quicker move in further widening our addressable market. In addition, many of our specs are sold early in the construction process, which affords many of our customers the opportunity to choose their finishes and make upgrades, an important competitive advantage for Toll Brothers.

我們的規格策略也使我們能夠吸引那些希望更快完成交易的買家，從而進一步擴大我們的目標市場。此外，我們的許多規格在施工過程的早期就已售出，這使得我們的許多客戶有機會選擇裝修材料並進行升級，這對 Toll Brothers 來說是一個重要的競爭優勢。

Specs accounted for approximately 54% of our deliveries in fiscal 2025. Given our year-end backlog and our deliveries guidance for fiscal 2026, we expect a similar ratio this year.

2025 財年，客製化產品約占我們交付量的 54%。鑑於我們年底的積壓訂單和 2026 財年的交付預期，我們預計今年的比例將與去年類似。

In the fourth quarter, we signed 2,598 net agreements for $2.5 billion, down 2% in units and 5% in dollars compared to Q4 of last year. We sold at a pace of approximately two contracts per community per month. Sales modestly improved as the quarter progressed, with October being our strongest month.

第四季度，我們淨簽發了 2,598 份協議，總額達 25 億美元，與去年第四季相比，數量下降了 2%，金額下降了 5%。我們平均每個社區每月售出約兩份合約。隨著季度推進，銷售額略有改善，其中 10 月表現最強勁。

Since the start of our fiscal 2026, six weeks ago, our per community deposit activity has been almost identical to the same six weeks last year, which is somewhat encouraging since last year's period was up 22% from the prior year.

自 2026 財年開始以來（六週前），我們每個社區的存款活動與去年同期幾乎相同，這多少令人鼓舞，因為去年同期比前一年增長了 22%。

Deposit activity in these first six weeks is also about the same as it was in October based on historical seasonal trends, it should have been down. While this activity is positive, it is just one data point.

根據歷史季節性趨勢，這前六週的存款活動與 10 月大致相同，而 10 月的存款活動本應下降。雖然這項活動是正面的，但這只是一個數據點。

And November and December are seasonally slow, so we are not reading too much into it. The real tale for whether the housing market can accelerate will be the spring selling season, which starts in late January.

11月和12月是淡季，所以我們不必過度解讀。房地產市場能否加速上漲的真正考驗，將取決於1月下旬開始的春季銷售旺季。

We are encouraged that mortgage rates have stabilized in the low 6% range and may go lower. We also recognize that the underlying fundamentals that fuel housing demand in the long term have not changed.

我們感到鼓舞的是，抵押貸款利率已穩定在 6% 左右的低位，並且可能會進一步下降。我們也意識到，推動住房需求長期發展的基本面因素並沒有改變。

Demographics are favorable with millennials still in their prime home buying years and Gen Z right behind them. We also continue to have a structural undersupply of millions of homes in this country, and the average age of the home in the US is now 40 years and growing.

人口結構對購屋者有利，千禧世代仍處於購屋黃金期，Z世代緊追在後。我們國家目前仍存在數百萬套住房的結構性供應不足問題，而且美國房屋的平均房齡已達 40 年，並且還在不斷增長。

All of these trends support demand for new homes. In terms of pricing in the quarter, we continue to take a measured approach to balancing pace and price. Our average incentive was the same as the third quarter at approximately 8% of delivered price, which is also the current incentive on the next homes sold.

所有這些趨勢都支撐了對新房子的需求。在本季的定價方面，我們繼續採取穩健的策略，在定價和定價之間取得平衡。我們的平均激勵措施與第三季相同，約為交貨價格的 8%，這也是目前下一批售房的獎勵措施。

Our average sales price in the quarter was approximately $972,000, down from $1 million in Q4 of last year due to mix. Geographically, we continue to see relative strength in the East from Boston down to South Carolina as well as in coastal California and Voice in the West.

由於產品組合變化，本季我們的平均銷售價格約為 97.2 萬美元，低於去年第四季的 100 萬美元。從地理上看，我們繼續看到東部地區（從波士頓到南卡羅來納州）以及西部的加州沿海地區和沃伊斯地區相對強勁。

Among our buyer segments, we saw little meaningful variation in demand. Given the cloudy near-term outlook for the overall housing market, which is being driven in large part by well-known affordability pressures, we are pleased to be serving an older, more affluent customer.

在我們所考察的買家群體中，需求幾乎沒有出現實質變化。鑑於整體房屋市場近期前景不明朗，這在很大程度上是由於眾所周知的住房負擔能力壓力所致，我們很高興能夠為年齡較大、經濟條件較好的客戶提供服務。

According to data published by the National Association of Realtors last month, the median age of a first-time homebuyer is at an all-time high of 40 years old and the median age of all buyers is now almost 60, which is one in five sales to a first-time buyer, the vast majority of sales in the market are to move up or move down buyers.

根據美國房地產經紀人協會上個月公佈的數據，首次購房者的年齡中位數達到了歷史最高水平 40 歲，所有購房者的年齡中位數現在接近 60 歲，這意味著五分之一的房屋銷售給了首次購房者，市場上絕大多數的房屋銷售都是給改善型或降級型購房者進行的。

These trends play right into our strategy, where 70% of our business serves the move-up and move-down segments. These buyers are wealthier, have greater financial flexibility and most of equity in their existing homes.

這些趨勢與我們的策略不謀而合，我們 70% 的業務都服務於升級換房和降級換房市場。這些買家經濟條件較好，財務靈活性更高，並且擁有現有房屋的大部分淨值。

The remaining 25% to 30% of our business is focused on the older, more affluent first-time buyer, who was also feeling less affordability pressure.

我們剩餘的 25% 到 30% 的業務集中在年齡較大、經濟條件較好的首次購屋者身上，他們感受到的購屋壓力也較小。

While we actively market rate buydowns, and they do drive traffic, we have a very low take rate as our buyers do not need a lower rate to qualify for a mortgage, and they'd rather spend incentive dollars upgrading their homes through our design studios.

雖然我們積極推廣利率優惠，而且確實能帶來客流量，但我們的成交率非常低，因為我們的買家不需要更低的利率就能獲得抵押貸款資格，他們寧願把獎勵資金花在我們設計工作室的房屋升級改造上。

In the fourth quarter, the average spend on design studio selections, structural options and lot premiums was approximately $206,000 per home or roughly 24% of base price. These upgrades benefit our margins as they tend to be highly accretive.

第四季度，每戶住宅在設計工作室選擇、結構選項和地塊溢價上的平均支出約為 206,000 美元，約佔基本價格的 24%。這些升級有利於我們的利潤率，因為它們往往能帶來很高的利潤成長。

The financial strength of our customers is also highlighted by a high percentage of all cash buyers the low LTVs of those who do take a mortgage, and our industry low cancellation rate. Consistent with the past several quarters, approximately 26% and of our top buyers paid all cash in the fourth quarter.

我們客戶的財務實力也體現在：全現金買家比例高，房貸客戶的貸款價值比低，以及我們產業內最低的取消率。與過去幾季的情況一致，第四季我們最大的買家中約有 26% 的人全額支付了現金。

The LTVs of buyers who took a mortgage in the quarter were approximately 69%, and our contract cancellation rate was 4.3% of beginning backlog.

本季抵押貸款購屋者的貸款成數約為 69%，合約取消率為期初積壓訂單的 4.3%。

Turning to land. At fiscal year-end, we controlled approximately 76,000 [lots], 57% of which were optioned. We continue to target a mix of 60% optioned and 40% owned over the long term.

轉向陸地。截至財政年度末，我們控制了約 76,000 個[批次]，其中 57% 已授予選擇權。長遠來看，我們仍將目標設定為60%選擇權持有和40%自有持有。

Our land position allows us to continue being highly selective and disciplined as we assess new opportunities. It also facilitates our plans to continue growing community count over the next several years, including another 8% to 10% in fiscal 2026.

我們的土地資源使我們能夠在評估新機會時繼續保持高度的選擇性和自律性。這也有助於我們在未來幾年繼續擴大社區規模，包括 2026 財年再擴大 8% 到 10%。

In our fourth quarter, we repurchased $249 million of our common stock, bringing our full year repurchases to $652 million at an average price of $120.44 per share. During fiscal 2025, we repurchased 5% of our outstanding shares at the beginning of the year. We also paid $97 million in dividends.

在第四季度，我們回購了價值 2.49 億美元的普通股，使全年回購總額達到 6.52 億美元，平均每股價格為 120.44 美元。在 2025 財年，我們在年初回購了 5% 的流通股。我們還支付了9700萬美元的股息。

Dividend and buybacks have been and will continue to be an important part of our capital allocation strategy. As I mentioned earlier, in September, we announced the sale of a significant portion of our Apartment Living business to Kennedy Wilson.

分紅和股票回購一直是並將繼續是我們資本配置策略的重要組成部分。正如我之前提到的，9 月我們宣布將我們公寓生活業務的很大一部分出售給 Kennedy Wilson。

The purchase price is now $380 million, reflecting ongoing investments since the September announcement. We thought it would close in Q4. It will now close this quarter.

收購價格目前為 3.8 億美元，反映了自 9 月宣布以來持續進行的投資。我們原以為它會在第四季關閉。本季即將結束。

We closed on part of the transaction last week and expect to complete the balance by the end of January. When it is completed, Kennedy Wilson will acquire about 1/2 of our Apartment Living portfolio including our operating platform and organization.

我們上週完成了部分交易，預計在1月底前完成剩餘部分。交易完成後，甘迺迪·威爾遜將收購我們約一半的公寓生活資產組合，包括我們的營運平台和組織。

We expect to sell our remaining interest in the retained properties over the next few years. As we exit the multifamily business, we anticipate using the significant cash proceeds from these transactions to both grow our core homebuilding business and return capital to stockholders.

我們預計將在未來幾年內出售我們持有的剩餘資產權益。隨著我們退出多戶住宅業務，我們預計將利用這些交易獲得的巨額現金收益，既發展我們的核心住宅建設業務，又向股東返還資本。

With that, I will turn it over to Greg.

接下來，我將把麥克風交給格雷格。

Thanks, Doug. Our fourth quarter capped off another strong year for Toll Brothers as we beat guidance across all our core homebuilding metrics, we would have beat on earnings as well, except for the delay in the apartment living sale.

謝謝你，道格。第四季為 Toll Brothers 又一個強勁的年份畫上了圓滿的句號，我們所有核心住宅建設指標均超出預期，如果不是公寓生活銷售的延遲，我們的盈利也會超出預期。

In fiscal year 2025 fourth quarter, we delivered 3,443 homes and generated home sale revenue of $3.4 billion, flat in units and up 5% in dollars from one year ago. The average price of homes delivered increased 4% to approximately $992,000.

在 2025 財年第四季度，我們交付了 3,443 套住房，創造了 34 億美元的住房銷售收入，按數量計算與去年同期持平，按美元計算增長了 5%。房屋交付的平均價格上漲了 4%，達到約 99.2 萬美元。

Fourth quarter net income was $446.7 million or $4.58 per diluted share compared to $475.4 million and $4.63 per diluted share one year ago. For the full year, we delivered 11,292 homes, up 4% year-over-year and generated home sales revenue of $10.8 billion, up 2.6%.

第四季淨利為 4.467 億美元，即每股攤薄收益 4.58 美元，去年同期為 4.754 億美元，即每股攤薄收益 4.63 美元。全年共交付房屋 11,292 套，年增 4%；房屋銷售收入達 108 億美元，年增 2.6%。

Full year net income was $1.35 billion, and $13.49 per diluted share compared to $1.57 billion and $15.01 last year. As a reminder, net income in 2024 included approximately $124 million or $1.19 per share of gains related to one parcel of land sold to a commercial developer for a data center.

全年淨利為 13.5 億美元，每股攤薄收益為 13.49 美元，而去年同期分別為 15.7 億美元和 15.01 美元。提醒一下，2024 年的淨收入包括約 1.24 億美元或每股 1.19 美元的收益，該收益與向商業開發商出售用於資料中心的一塊土地有關。

Excluding this gain, last year's net income would have been $1.45 billion or $13.82 per share. We signed 2,598 net contracts in the fourth quarter for $2.5 billion down 2.3% in units and 5.0% in dollars from one year ago.

如果排除這筆收益，去年的淨收入將為 14.5 億美元，即每股 13.82 美元。第四季我們淨簽合約 2,598 份，總額 25 億美元，與去年同期相比，數量下降 2.3%，金額下降 5.0%。

The average price of contracts signed in the quarter was approximately $972,000 down 2.8% compared to last year's fourth quarter. As Doug mentioned, the decrease in ASP, was primarily due to mix as we had fewer sales in our Pacific region.

本季簽訂的合約平均價格約為 972,000 美元，比去年第四季下降了 2.8%。正如 Doug 所提到的，平均售價下降主要是由於產品組合變化，因為我們在太平洋地區的銷售量減少。

At year-end, our backlog stood at $5.5 billion and 4,647 homes. Our cancellation rate, as a percentage of backlog was 4.3% in the fourth quarter.

截至年底，我們的積壓訂單總額為 55 億美元，待建房屋數量為 4,647 套。第四季度，我們的取消率（佔積壓訂單的百分比）為 4.3%。

Our fourth quarter adjusted gross margin at 27.1% was slightly better than guidance. In the quarter and throughout the year, we outperformed expectations in all regions and buyer segments, reflecting the ongoing benefits of our cost control efforts and improved efficiencies.

我們第四季調整後的毛利率為 27.1%，略優於預期。本季及全年，我們在所有地區和買家群體中均超出預期，這反映了我們持續的成本控制措施和效率提升所帶來的效益。

SG&A as a percentage of revenue was 8.3% in the quarter, flat compared to the same quarter one year ago, and in line with our guidance. Joint venture, land sales and other income was $6 million in the fourth quarter compared to $44.5 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2024 and our guidance of $65 million.

本季銷售、一般及行政費用佔營收的 8.3%，與去年同期持平，符合我們的預期。第四季合資企業、土地銷售和其他收入為 600 萬美元，而 2024 財年第四季為 4,450 萬美元，低於我們先前預測的 6,500 萬美元。

As we noted earlier, the miss was primarily because of the delay in the closing of the apartment living transaction. In addition, we booked $24 million of pre-tax impairments that were primarily related to three land positions that we now intend to sell.

正如我們之前提到的，這次失誤主要是由於公寓交易完成延遲所造成的。此外，我們也提列了 2,400 萬美元的稅前減損損失，主要與我們現在打算出售的三塊土地有關。

Impairments included in home sales cost of revenue totaled $16.4 million in the quarter, almost half of which related to only one community in Oregon, compared to $24.1 million in the prior year period.

本季計入房屋銷售成本收入的減損損失總計 1,640 萬美元，其中近一半與俄勒岡州的一個社區有關，而去年同期為 2,410 萬美元。

We continued to generate strong cash flow in fiscal 2025 with approximately $1.1 billion of cash flow from operations. We ended the fiscal year with over $3.5 billion of liquidity, including $1.3 billion of cash and $2.2 billion available under a revolving bank credit facility.

我們在 2025 財年持續保持強勁的現金流，經營活動產生的現金流約為 11 億美元。在本財年結束時，我們的流動資金超過 35 億美元，其中包括 13 億美元的現金和 22 億美元的循環銀行信貸額度。

In fiscal 2025, we invested $2.9 billion in land acquisition and land development. We also returned approximately $750 million to stockholders through share repurchases and dividends.

2025財年，我們投資29億美元用於土地收購和土地開發。我們也透過股票回購和分紅向股東返還了約 7.5 億美元。

Our net debt to capital ratio was 15.3% at fiscal year-end, and we have no significant debt maturities until fiscal 2027. Our balance sheet is in great shape.

截至財政年度末，我們的淨負債資本比率為 15.3%，且在 2027 財年之前我們沒有重大債務到期。我們的資產負債表狀況良好。

Turning to our first quarter and full year 2026 guidance, I want to emphasize that our assumptions and estimates are based on current market conditions, which as Doug noted are choppy. We have not assumed any market improvement in our forecast.

關於我們對 2026 年第一季和全年業績的預測，我想強調的是，我們的假設和估計是基於當前的市場狀況，正如 Doug 指出的那樣，目前的市場狀況並不穩定。我們的預測並未假設市場會有任何改善。

We are projecting first quarter deliveries of 1800 to 1900 homes with an average price between $985,000 and $995,000. Consistent with normal seasonal patterns, first quarter deliveries are expected to be the low point of the year, with deliveries for the full fiscal year weighted to the second half.

我們預計第一季將交付 1800 至 1900 套房屋，平均價格在 985,000 美元至 995,000 美元之間。與正常的季節性規律一致，預計第一季的交付量將是全年的最低點，而整個財年的交付量將主要集中在下半年。

For full year 2026, we are projecting new home deliveries of between 10,300 and 10,700 homes with an average price between $970,000 and $990,000.

我們預計 2026 年全年將交付 10,300 至 10,700 套新房，平均價格在 970,000 美元至 990,000 美元之間。

We expect our adjusted gross margin in the first quarter of fiscal 2026 to be approximately 26.25% and for the full year to be approximately 26.0%. We expect interest and cost of sales to be approximately 1.1% in the first quarter and for the full year.

我們預計 2026 財年第一季的調整後毛利率約為 26.25%，全年約為 26.0%。我們預計第一季和全年的利息和銷售成本約為 1.1%。

We project first quarter SG&A, as a percentage of home sale revenues to be approximately 14.2%, reflecting lower fixed cost leverage as the first quarter tends to be our lowest revenue quarter.

我們預計第一季銷售、一般及行政費用將佔房屋銷售收入的比例約為 14.2%，反映出固定成本槓桿較低，因為第一季往往是我們收入最低的季度。

Also included in the first quarter SG&A. It is about $14 million of annual accelerated stock compensation expense that does not recur in the remainder of the year.

也包含在第一季銷售、一般及行政費用。這是一筆約 1400 萬美元的年度加速股票補償費用，該費用在一年中的剩餘時間內不會再次發生。

For the full year, we project SG&A as a percentage of home sale revenues to be approximately 10.25%. Other income, income from unconsolidated entities and land sale gross profit, is expected to be $70 million in the first quarter and $130 million for the full year.

我們預計全年銷售、管理及行政費用將佔房屋銷售收入的比例約為 10.25%。其他收入、非並表實體收入和土地出售毛利預計第一季為 7,000 萬美元，全年為 1.3 億美元。

Our first quarter guidance includes gains on the sale of our apartment living assets to Kennedy Wilson. I want to be clear that after we complete the apartment living transaction with Kennedy Wilson, we will retain about 50% of our existing interest in apartment living assets, which will be managed by Kennedy Wilson in the future.

我們第一季的業績預期包括將公寓生活資產出售給 Kennedy Wilson 所獲得的收益。我想明確說明，在我們與 Kennedy Wilson 完成公寓生活交易後，我們將保留我們現有公寓生活資產約 50% 的權益，這些資產未來將由 Kennedy Wilson 管理。

We do not intend to commit any new capital and will exit the multi-family business as we sell off the retained properties. We project a first quarter and full year tax rate of approximately 23.2% and 25.5% respectively.

我們不打算投入任何新的資金，並將透過出售保留的房產退出多戶住宅業務。我們預計第一季和全年的稅率分別約為 23.2% 和 25.5%。

We are budgeting $650 million of share repurchases in fiscal 2026, with most of that occurring later in the year aligned with the higher operating cash flows we typically generate in the second half. We expect our weighted average share count to be approximately $97 million for the first quarter and $95 million for the full year.

我們計劃在 2026 財年投入 6.5 億美元用於股票回購，其中大部分將在今年稍後進行，這與我們通常在下半年產生的較高經營現金流相一致。我們預計第一季加權平均股份數約為 9,700 萬美元，全年約為 9,500 萬美元。

Based on land we currently own or control, we expect to grow community count by 8% to 10% by the end of fiscal 2026 and are targeting 480 to 490 communities. With that, I will turn the call back over to Doug.

根據我們目前擁有或控制的土地，我們預計到 2026 財年末，社區數量將增加 8% 至 10%，目標是 480 至 490 個社區。好了，現在我把電話轉回給道格。

Thank you, Greg. Before we open up the questions, I'd like to thank the entire Toll Brothers team for staying focused on our customers and consistently executing on our core strategies.

謝謝你，格雷格。在正式開始提問之前，我要感謝 Toll Brothers 的全體團隊成員，感謝他們始終專注於客戶，並持續執行我們的核心策略。

Most importantly, you've helped position the company for continued success in 2026 and beyond. For that, I am truly grateful. True, let's open it up for questions. Hello?

最重要的是，你幫助公司為在 2026 年及以後繼續取得成功奠定了基礎。為此，我由衷地感激。好的，我們來開放提問環節。你好？

Sure, all of you out there can hear me, but we need to find our moderator. If everybody can hear me, my sincere apologies, we've apparently lost our moderator. We are being told that our prepared comments came through loud and clear.

當然，你們所有人都能聽到我說話，但我們需要找到主持人。如果大家都能聽到我的話，我深感歉意，我們的主持人好像都走失了。我們被告知，我們事先準備好的評論已經清晰有力地傳達出去了。

So if you could just hang in with us for, hopefully, just a second here. We're going to get Drew back. This may be Drew's last time working with Toll Brothers, but we'll enjoy them, hopefully, for the next half hour.

所以，如果您能稍等片刻，即使只有一秒鐘的話。我們一定會把德魯找回來。這可能是德魯最後一次與托爾兄弟合作，但希望我們能在接下來的半小時欣賞他們的表演。

And if we need to extend this beyond 9:30 because of this short delay, we will be more than happy to. So this is the first. It's not fair to Gregg Ziegler, as he sits in the chair. But we will get through it. So please hang.

如果因為這次短暫的延誤而需要將會議時間延長到 9:30 之後，我們非常樂意這樣做。這是第一個。這對坐在椅子上的格雷格·齊格勒不公平。但我們會渡過難關的。所以請耐心等待。

Okay gang, so while we wait for our friend Drew. We email, questions in and we will read them back to everybody and move through it. So why don't you send them.

好了各位，在我們等待朋友德魯的時候。我們透過電子郵件接收問題，然後我們會把問題讀給每個人聽，並逐一解答。那你為什麼不把它們寄出去呢？

If you want you send to Drew Patrick, he is e-mailing you all as well just in case you don't have his e-mail address, but dpetri@tollbrothers.com, and we'll do this the old-fashioned in way at the moment.

如果你想把郵件發給德魯·帕特里克，他也會給你們所有人發郵件，以防你們沒有他的電子郵件地址，他的郵箱地址是 dpetri@tollbrothers.com，目前我們只能用老辦法了。

Stephen Kim, Evercore.

Stephen Kim，Evercore。

Sure. Our friend Drew is okay. Thank you again, apologies. And Stephen, let's get it rolling here.

當然。我們的朋友德魯沒事。再次感謝，抱歉。史蒂芬，咱們開始吧。

All right. Sounds good. Yeah, he wanted to ask about your assumptions for the active built buyer. I thought it was interesting you said that 70% of your sales are move up and move down. I was wondering if you could give us a sense of the move down.

好的。聽起來不錯。是的，他想問你對主動購屋者的看法。我覺得你說的很有意思，你們70%的銷售額都是向上移動和向下移動的。我想請您介紹一下這次搬遷的情況。

And any other kind of age breakdown of your buyer to the degree you can do it. And I'm curious what kind of trends you factor into your land purchasing decisions today? Because obviously, the stuff you're buying now or tying up, I should say, today, isn't going to be used probably for another maybe four or five years.

並盡可能對買家進行其他任何年齡細分。我很好奇，如今您在做出土地購買決定時會考慮哪些趨勢？很顯然，你現在購買或囤積的東西，可能在未來四、五年內都不會用到。

And so I'm curious as to what sort of potentially changing trends should we be cognizant about with respect to the move down buyer in particular, in terms of what you're considering as well?

因此，我很好奇，就您考慮的因素而言，我們應該注意哪些可能發生變化的趨勢，特別是對於降級購屋者？

Sure. So active adult is doing well. As you would expect, older, more affluent buyer invested in the markets, equity in their existing homes. It's about 17% of our revenue. So the biggest part of that, plus 70% we referenced being both move up and move down is our core move-up business, which is really doing well.

當然。所以，活躍成年人的生活狀況良好。正如你所預料的那樣，年齡較大、經濟條件較好的買家將資金投入市場中，並投資於他們現有的房產。這約占我們收入的17%。因此，其中最大的一部分，加上我們提到的 70% 既包括向上搬遷也包括向下搬遷，是我們的核心向上搬遷業務，該業務發展得非常好。

Trends with that buyer, I think through these softer times, we continue to expect the active adult group to outperform, and we're seeing that. With respect to the age of the different buyer segments, we don't have great data on that.

我認為，即使在當前經濟疲軟時期，我們仍然預期活躍的成年人群體會表現出色，而我們也看到了這一點。關於不同購買族群年齡的數據，我們還沒有很好的資料。

I think it's pretty consistent with the numbers I gave that the first-time buyer is now approaching 40 and the average buyer is approaching 60. I'm quite confident that would be about where we are. Our first-time buyer is not 250 to 400.

我認為這與我給出的數據相當吻合，首次購房者的年齡現在接近 40 歲，而平均購房者的年齡接近 60 歲。我相當肯定我們目前的處境大致是如此。我們的首次購屋者預算不是 250 到 400 美元。

Our first-time buyer is 450 to, in California, we have first-time buyers at $1.5 million. They're older. They're more affluent, less impacted by affordability issues, not looking for rate buydown. And I'm sure our age breakdown is pretty consistent with the numbers I gave.

我們的首次購屋者價格為 450 美元，而在加州，我們有首次購屋者的價格高達 150 萬美元。他們年紀比較大。他們經濟條件較好，受住房負擔能力問題的影響較小，不需要降價。我相信我們的年齡組成與我提供的數字基本一致。

With respect to trends on land, we're seeing good deal flow. We are being very conservative. We are being very disciplined in our underwriting. We talk all the time about this combination score of gross margin and IRR.

就陸地市場趨勢而言，我們看到交易量不錯。我們採取的是非常保守的做法。我們在承保方面非常嚴謹。我們經常談到毛利率和內部收益率的綜合評分。

And we have a lot of great land. We have community count growth that's lined up at 8% to 10%, which will follow exactly 9% in '25, but we're seeing good deal flow.

我們擁有大片優質土地。社區數量成長預計在 8% 到 10% 之間，2025 年將達到 9%，但我們看到交易量不錯。

Part of that is some softer markets. Part of that is the other big builders with capital do not tend to compete with us for land. So we have a bit of an advantage. And so most of the land we're buying or contracting for now is setting up '27 and '28 revenue.

部分原因是市場疲軟。部分原因是其他有資金的大型建築商往往不會與我們爭奪土地。所以我們略佔優勢。因此，我們現在購買或承包的大部分土地都是為了 2027 年和 2028 年的收入。

So it's always forward-looking because we have to get entitlements and get roads in and get sales centers open. But we are being quite disciplined, but continuing to see good deal flow and gives us the opportunity to not just focus on returning capital to shareholders, but grow the company.

所以，我們始終著眼於未來，因為我們必須獲得許可、建造道路並開設銷售中心。但我們一直保持著相當的自律，並且不斷看到良好的交易機會，這讓我們有機會不僅專注於向股東返還資本，而且還能發展公司。

Okay. That's helpful. And it was my next question is sort of related to that kind of a continuation of your thought there. I'm curious as to whether or not you think the number of lots owned by the end of next year could stay flat or maybe even decline compared to where it is today.

好的。那很有幫助。我的下一個問題其實與你剛才的思路有關，算是對你剛才想法的延續。我很想知道，您是否認為到明年年底，擁有的地塊數量會與現在相比保持不變，甚至可能下降。

And related to that cash flow conversion next year. Greg, any thoughts on maybe a range of values that you would generally target for cash flow conversion?

以及與明年現金流轉換相關的問題。Greg，你覺得現金流轉換率的目標值範圍大概是多少？

I'll take the first half and turn it over to Greg. We think owned lots will continue to come down a little bit. They came down a little bit through '25. We're doing more and more land banking, joint ventures with other builders.

我接手前半部分，然後交給格雷格。我們認為自有地塊的價格還會繼續小幅下降。他們在 25 年左右有所下降。我們正在進行越來越多的土地儲備，並與其他建築商進行合資計畫。

We're getting extended terms with land sellers where we can buy land over time. That's very important to us as we continue to focus on ROE.

我們正在與土地賣方協商延長購買期限，以便我們可以分期購買土地。這對我們來說非常重要，因為我們將繼續專注於提高淨資產收益率。

And so I think, Stephen, I'd say flat to modestly down on the owned option ratio. I've said before, while right now, 60-40 option to owned is a goal. I mean it's not going to take too long for us to go through that and give you a new goal that's even that's even better. Greg?

所以我覺得，史蒂芬，持有選擇權比率應該會持平或略有下降。我之前說過，目前的目標是 60% 選擇權持有，40% 持有。我的意思是，我們不會花太長時間來完成這件事，並為你設定一個甚至更好的新目標。格雷格？

Hi, Stephen. We think cash flow from operations will be modestly lower in '26 as it compares to 2025, so I think that the cash flow conversion, which is your original question, might be, I'll throw out something in the 60% range.

你好，史蒂芬。我們認為 2026 年的經營活動現金流將比 2025 年略低，所以我認為現金流轉換率（也就是你最初的問題）可能是，我隨便說一個 60% 左右。

John Lovallo, UBS.

瑞銀集團的約翰·洛瓦洛。

The first one is that, look, you guys have exceeded your quarterly delivery outlook in 11 of the past 12 quarters by like 5% on average versus the midpoint. You beat the gross margin outlook in each of the past 12 consecutive quarters, but I think, about 70 basis points on average.

首先，你們在過去 12 個季度中有 11 個季度都超出了季度交付預期，平均超出中點約 5%。你們連續 12 個季度都超過了毛利率預期，但我認為平均只超出了 70 個基點左右。

I understand that visibility is limited here. But do you believe you're leaving a little bit of room for cushion in your outlook, particularly if the market is at least slightly better in 2026 as we expect it might be?

我知道這裡的能見度有限。但您是否認為您在展望未來時留出了一些緩衝空間，尤其是在市場如我們預期的那樣在 2026 年略有好轉的情況下？

John, I'm a conservative guy. I run this company in a very conservative way. And I think all I'll say is the guidance we're giving you for '26 is conservative. We are not assuming any improvement in market conditions.

約翰，我是保守派。我經營這家公司的方式非常保守。我只想說，我們對 2026 年的預測是保守的。我們並不認為市場狀況會有任何改善。

We are not assuming that 8% incentive comes down. We have a lot of communities opening in the first half of the year. We have 30 opening in Q1. We have 60 opening in Q2.

我們並非假設8%的激勵措施會下降。今年上半年我們將有許多社區開放。第一季我們有30個職缺。第二季我們有 60 個職缺。

We now have over 35% of our communities that can deliver homes in less than eight months because frankly, we become better and more in builders and are turning houses faster. So there is an opportunity to get further into the spring not just with the communities we have but with the new openings that can still have deliveries this year.

現在，我們超過 35% 的社區可以在不到 8 個月的時間內交付房屋，因為坦白說，我們的建築商變得更好、更專業，房屋建造速度也更快了。因此，我們有機會將業務拓展到春季，不僅在我們現有的社區，而且在今年仍然可以進行配送的新開業的社區也是如此。

And that's just internally on how we're running the business. That doesn't even go to what the market conditions look like. Whether rates come down, whether affordability pressure eases a bit, whether there's overall consumer confidence that improves, none of that is built in.

而這僅僅是我們公司內部的經營方式。這甚至還沒涉及到市場狀況。利率是否會下降，購屋壓力是否會有所緩解，消費者整體信心是否會提高，這些都還未可知。

So I'm not going to sit here and tell you that we're going to blow through our guidance, but we've approached it the right way. I've learned this for 35 years.

所以我不會坐在這裡告訴你我們會突破指導方針，但我們採取的方法是正確的。我學這個已經35年了。

When you're in a softer market that's a bit bumpy, that is the time to be conservative when you guide to the Street. And that's exactly what we've done setting up '26.

在市場疲軟、波動較大的時候，當你向華爾街發出指引時，就應該採取保守的態度。而這正是我們籌備 2026 年賽事所做的。

Yeah, makes a lot of sense. Okay. The first quarter home sales gross margin guide is 26.25 the full year guidance 26, which would be seasonally sort of atypical given the normal cadence of sales. What's driving the implied moderation in the gross margin through the year in your view?

沒錯，很有道理。好的。第一季房屋銷售毛利率預期為 26.25%，全年預期為 26%，考慮到正常的銷售節奏，這在季節性上有些不尋常。您認為導致全年毛利率趨於平穩的原因是什麼？

So we are starting more spec now to set up when people want to move into homes, right? Most people want to move into a home in June, July, August, September, as the school year approaches or begins.

所以我們現在開始製定更多規範，以便在人們想要搬進新家時進行設置，對吧？大多數人都想在六月、七月、八月、九月搬進新家，因為那時正值學年臨近或開始。

And so you have to plan your spec strategy, in our opinion, not with the equal cadence month-to-month for spec starts, but begin homes focused on when they deliver and when the buyer wants them.

因此，我們認為，你必須制定你的投機策略，不要按月同步開工投機項目，而是要根據房屋的交付時間和買家的需求來製定開工計劃。

And so in the later part of the year, we will have more spec deliveries, some of those get sold early, and they can go to that design studio and load it. But some of those don't get sold until the house is further along. And so we all know right now, there is a bigger incentive on spec than on build to order.

因此，在今年下半年，我們將有更多樣機交付，其中一些將提前售出，然後他們可以送到設計工作室進行改裝。但其中一些房產要等到房子蓋到更後期才會出售。所以我們現在都知道，以規格生產比按訂單生產更有優勢。

And in the later part of the year, we will have more specs delivering. So we are being conservative in the gross margin guide assuming that those specs will require a bit of a higher incentive, and that's in the later part of the year. So that's the answer.

今年下半年，我們將推出更多規格的產品。因此，我們在毛利率預期中採取了保守態度，假設這些規格需要更高的激勵措施，而這要等到今年下半年才能實現。這就是答案。

Mike Dahl, RBC Capital Markets.

Mike Dahl，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

Steven Mia on for Mike Dahl today. I wanted to kind of dive a little more into the fiscal '26 delivery guide, like the company delivered around 11,300 homes from beginning backlog of around 6,000 last year, representing a little under 2 times your beginning backlog, kind of what you closed out the year with kind of, and going into next year, the guide is around 10,500 at the midpoint, you're adding for a little more than 2 times your beginning backlog.

今天史蒂文·米亞代替麥克·達爾上場。我想更深入地探討一下 2026 財年的交付指南，例如該公司去年交付了約 11,300 套房屋，而年初的積壓訂單約為 6,000 套，這相當於年初積壓訂單的近 2 倍，也大致相當於年底的交付量。展望明年，指南中期目標約 10,500 套，比年初積壓訂單增加了一倍以上。

What kind of, if you could give us some more color on kind of what gives you confidence in that random assuming spec plays a big part of that, but if there's anything else you could speak to and perhaps any more color you can give on the spec strategy side, that would be helpful.

如果您能更詳細地說明是什麼讓您對這種隨機假設有信心，那就太好了。假設投機在其中起著重要作用，但如果您還能談談其他方面，或者在投機策略方面提供更多細節，那就更有幫助了。

Sure. I'll be happy to. So let's go through the numbers for you because I want to make it clear. We have 4,500 homes in backlog. We have 3,000 spec homes or as we call quick move-ins under construction.

當然。我很樂意。所以，我來逐條分析這些數字，因為我想把事情說清楚。我們積壓了4500套房屋的建設項目。我們有 3000 套現房正在興建中，也就是我們所說的可以快速入住的房子。

That takes you to 7,500. We have 1,500 build-to-order homes that we believe conservatively will be sold and settled in fiscal '26. I mentioned that 35% or more of our communities are now delivering homes in less than 8 months from when the buyer in the agreement to the closing date.

這樣就達到了7500。我們有 1500 套客製化住宅，我們保守估計這些住宅將在 2026 財年售出並交付。我提到，我們社區中 35% 或更多的房屋現在都能在不到 8 個月的時間內交付，從買方簽訂協議到房屋交割日。

I mentioned the new communities that we'll be opening in the first half of the year, and we are very comfortable in that 1,500 number. And then we have another 2,300 spec permits that have not started construction.

我提到了我們將在今年上半年開設的新社區，我們對 1500 個社區的目標非常有信心。此外，還有 2300 個尚未開工的施工許可證。

But of those, we are selecting individually based on market conditions, 1500 that we will start and will allow us to sell and settle by year-end.

但我們會根據市場狀況，從中挑選出 1500 家公司開始生產，並計劃在年底前完成銷售和結算。

So when you add 4,500 backlog, 3,000 spec under construction, 1500 build-to-order and 1500 spec at permit that we are now selecting to start to have them done in those prime summer months that gets you right to 10.5%.

因此，加上 4,500 個積壓訂單、3,000 個在建項目、1500 個按訂單生產項目和 1500 個已獲許可的項目（我們現在正在選擇在夏季黃金月份開始施工），就正好達到了 10.5%。

Got it. That's super helpful. I appreciate the quantitative walk there. And if I could squeeze one in on the exit of the announcement to exit the remaining in the multifamily business. If you could give us a bit more color on how you came to that decision?

知道了。這太有幫助了。我很欣賞這種量化分析。如果我能擠出一點時間，在宣布退出剩餘的多戶住宅業務之際，再補充一點。您能否更詳細地說明一下您做出這個決定的過程？

And if I could also ask how we should maybe think about the use of potential additional proceeds once you're able to fully exit the business.

另外，我能否問一下，一旦您能夠完全退出公司，我們應該如何考慮如何使用可能獲得的額外收益？

Sure. So in a business I've been very proud of for the last 15 years. If we were private, we would stay in it. But we recognize as a public home builder, we're not getting the full credit that we think we deserve for the earnings generated from that business.

當然。所以，在我過去15年來一直引以為傲的事業中。如果我們是私人企業，我們會待在裡面。但作為一家上市住宅建築商，我們意識到，我們並沒有因為這項業務所產生的收益而獲得我們認為應得的全部認可。

We understand that analysts, investors and Wall Street would prefer that we focus on core pure-play homebuilding, and so we have waived the white flag. We are selling the business. We will focus exclusively on our for-sale business.

我們理解分析師、投資者和華爾街更希望我們專注於核心的純住宅建設，因此我們已經舉出白旗投降。我們正在出售這家公司。我們將專注於待售業務。

And we wish our team that was so talented to have a tremendous future under the Kennedy Wilson platform in terms of the money generated, the cash generated from the sale, not just the Kennedy Wilson, but then the subsequent sale of the retained assets, it's going to be used to grow the business and to return cash to shareholders.

我們希望我們才華橫溢的團隊在 Kennedy Wilson 的平台上擁有一個輝煌的未來，無論是在資金方面，還是在出售 Kennedy Wilson 以及隨後出售保留資產所產生的現金方面，這些資金都將用於發展業務並向股東返還現金。

Trevor Allinson, Wolfe Research.

Trevor Allinson，Wolfe Research。

First question on fourth quarter orders, typically, they're down mid-single digits sequentially. This quarter, they were up 9%. I think ex-COVID, that was the best sequential performance you had seen a really long time. But you mentioned demand still remains soft. So what drove the outperformance in the quarter?

關於第四季訂單，第一個問題是，通常情況下，訂單環比下降幅度在個位數中段。本季度，他們的業績成長了9%。我認為，在新冠疫情之後，這是很長一段時間以來你見過的最好的連續表現。但您提到需求依然疲軟。那麼，是什麼因素推動了本季業績的優異表現？

Is that a desire to work down some inventory, or why did that outperform normal seasonality so significantly? And then with that in mind, how are you thinking about orders relative to normal seasonality here in your first quarter?

這是為了減少庫存嗎？還是說，為什麼它的表現會如此顯著地超越正常的季節性波動？那麼，考慮到這一點，您如何看待第一季訂單相對於正常季節性的變化？

Trevor, it's Greg. Fourth quarter '25 order growth there. I think that we saw in quite a number of geographies across the country as well as most of our buyer segments. So I think that we did well, and you will notice in the results here that the North region was definitely above our expectations.

特雷弗，我是格雷格。2025年第四季訂單成長。我認為我們在全國許多地區以及大多數買家群體中都看到了這種情況。所以我認為我們做得很好，從結果中可以看出，北部地區的表現絕對超出了我們的預期。

So we're proud of the results that we have there. As you're asking about orders for contracts for the rest of the year, especially into Q1. I think our comments around the November demand we saw in deposits is probably as far as we would like to comment publicly on orders as we move forward.

所以，我們對在那裡所取得的成果感到自豪。您詢問的是今年剩餘時間，特別是第一季的合約訂單狀況。我認為，我們之前對11月份存款需求的評論，可能是我們未來希望公開評論訂單情況的極限了。

Okay. Fair enough. Second question then is around new home inventory in the industry levels. There's been a lot of talk about that being extended, especially in some of the weaker markets such as Texas and Florida. But obviously, you guys operate at very different price points versus a lot of your peers.

好的。很公平。第二個問題是關於產業內新房庫存水準的。關於延長這一期限的討論很多，尤其是在德克薩斯州和佛羅裡達州等一些較弱的市場。但很顯然，你們的產品定價與許多同行相比都大相逕庭。

Can you talk about where you think new home inventory stands and at your price points in some of those more challenged markets, do you think some of the overbuilding that we've seen is more across price points, or you think that from what you guys can see is more concentrated at the entry level, but.

您能否談談您對一些更具挑戰性的市場中新房庫存現狀的看法，以及在您設定的價格區間內，您認為我們看到的過度建設現像是遍及各個價格區間，還是更多地集中在入門級市場？

It's definitely more concentrated at the entry level. You look at the Boston to, I'll call it, Philadelphia or even Northern Virginia corridor, which most in this room live in, there's very little on the resale market.

入門級產品肯定更集中。你看看從波士頓到費城，甚至北維吉尼亞走廊（在座的大多數人都住在那裡），二手房市場上的房源非常少。

There's very little land for the new home builders, we have a pretty unique positioning there. It's tough to come into those markets. And finally, you can get entitled quickly and get the machine running. So this is our home corridor that we do well in.

可供新建房屋的土地非常少，我們在那裡的地理位置相當獨特。進入這些市場很困難。最後，您可以快速獲得授權並啟動機器。所以這是我們擅長的主場走廊。

We know how difficult the entitlements are, and we're benefiting from it with very, very tight resale markets and very few builders to compete with, that's also been true in Coastal California. We've done very well. I mentioned earlier, and it may surprise some.

我們知道獲得這些權利有多麼困難，我們也因此受益，二手房市場非常非常緊張，而且很少有建築商與我們競爭，加州沿海地區的情況也是如此。我們做得非常好。我之前提到過，這可能會讓一些人感到驚訝。

But while Sacramento and Palm Springs have been a bit off both Northern Cal and Southern Cal what we call our coastal markets, which is all the San Francisco suburbs and the LA and Orange County communities are doing extremely well there's limited resale at our price points.

雖然薩克拉門托和棕櫚泉的情況與北加州和南加州的情況略有不同，但我們所說的沿海市場（即舊金山郊區、洛杉磯和橙縣的社區）表現非常出色，在我們這個價位上，轉售房源有限。

We don't have the other builders anywhere near our price points. And those markets have continued to perform well with limited competition. Just a couple of examples out of both of those East and West Coast areas. We opened a community in Central New Jersey.

我們的價格根本無法與其他建築商相提並論。而且，在競爭有限的情況下，這些市場一直表現得很好。僅舉東海岸和西海岸地區的幾個例子。我們在新澤西州中部開設了一個社區。

Eight weeks ago, in what's seasonally not considered a great time of October and November, and we took 20 sales of $1.8 million. We have a community in Irvine Ranch in Orange County that opened about six months ago back in May, has $0.40 sales at over $6 million including 14 of those 47 sales just in the past eight weeks.

八週前，在通常不被認為是銷售旺季的十月和十一月，我們完成了 20 筆銷售，銷售額達 180 萬美元。我們在橙縣爾灣牧場有一個社區，大約六個月前，也就是五月開業，銷售額為每套 0.40 美元，超過 600 萬美元，其中 47 筆交易中有 14 筆是在過去八週內完成的。

So those are just two examples. But yes, there are markets that have a lot of big public that are building a lot of spec at lower prices. And we're in the food chain, right?

以上只是兩個例子。但確實有一些市場有很多大型上市公司以較低的價格建造大量投機性住房。我們身處食物鏈之中，對吧？

So we have, there is some impact on us, particularly because we have a lot of buyers that have homes to sell, but in our core business of $1 million homes, we're just not seeing it. We have a unique niche that we feel very lucky to be in.

所以，這確實對我們產生了一些影響，尤其是因為我們有很多買家要賣房，但在我們核心的100萬美元房屋業務中，我們並沒有看到這種情況。我們擁有一個獨特的市場定位，我們為此感到非常幸運。

Sam Read, Wells Fargo.

山姆·里德，富國銀行。

Just wanted to dig a little deeper on SG&A. When I run the numbers, it looks like SG&A dollars might be up a little bit year-over-year. Could you just bucket some of the incremental dollar expenses that you're planning for?

只是想更深入了解一下銷售、一般及行政費用（SG&A）。我計算了一下，銷售、管理及行政費用似乎比去年同期略有成長。能否將您計劃增加的部分費用按類別列出？

Maybe things like third-party broker commissions, new community growth. Would just love some additional context on the SG&A piece.

或許包括第三方經紀人佣金、新社區發展等因素。很想了解更多銷售、管理及行政費用部分的背景資訊。

So it tamed to me to give the guide I gave on SG&A. We're fighting hard every day to reduce overhead in this company, and that effort is elevating we're more and more focused on it than ever. That's what soft markets do.

所以，我欣然接受了我之前給的關於銷售、一般及行政費用的指南。我們每天都在努力降低公司的營運成本，而這種努力正在提升我們的業績，我們比以往任何時候都更專注於此。這就是疲軟市場的表現。

It is a conservative guide. We're 75 basis points above last year's result. 50 of those 75 basis points is just leverage on less revenue.

這是一本保守的指南。我們目前的業績比去年同期高出75個基點。這75個基點中有50個基點是因為營收減少所帶來的槓桿效應。

And that obviously could change if we do better in '26 with our sales and with our deliveries and the balance of 25 basis points is inflation in wages, it's health care costs, and it's some modest elevated both internal and third-party sales commissions when you're in a softer market, per house, you pay your salespeople a little more because you don't want to take them backwards in their total comp.

如果我們在 2026 年的銷售和交付方面做得更好，這種情況顯然可能會改變。剩下的 25 個基點包括薪資通膨、醫療保健成本，以及在市場疲軟時適度提高的內部和第三方銷售佣金。每套房產，你都會多付給銷售人員一些錢，因為你不想讓他們的總收入減少。

So if they're selling if you have a few less houses, you give them a little more per house. And you have to incent the third-party realtors a little bit more to get them to come to your community. So those numbers are modestly elevated, but that's the breakdown.

所以，如果他們要賣房子，而你的房子數量又少一些，你就給他們每間房子多付一點錢。你需要給第三方房地產經紀人一些額外的激勵措施，才能吸引他們來你的社區。所以這些數字略有上升，但這就是具體情況。

50 basis points leverage, 25 basis point those other items. But we're fighting this fight every day, and I am determined to bring that number into all of you by the end of the year with a nine in front of it.

槓桿率為 50 個基點，其他項目為 25 個基點。但我們每天都在為這場戰鬥而努力，我決心在年底前讓你們所有人實現這個目標，而且這個數字前面還要加上一個九。

All helpful context there. Maybe switching gears and talking lot costs. Would just love to hear some context as to where you exited 2025 on lot cost inflation? And then any sense in terms of what's embedded in guide for 2026 lot cost inflation based on what you plan to deliver?

這裡提供了所有有用的背景資訊。或許我們可以換個話題，聊聊大宗商品的成本。我很想了解您對2025年地塊成本通膨的預測背景？那麼，根據你們的交付計劃，你們對 2026 年地塊成本通膨的指導原則有何看法？

The guys around me are telling me it's flat. Our guide is also flat. We're seeing, as I said, there's some opportunities now we're excited about, which sometimes happens in a softer market. We are renegotiating a lot of our land deals, the impairments were up modestly because we did sell out of a few of our deals.

我周圍的人都說這​​裡是平的。我們的導遊也是平的。正如我所說，我們現在看到了一些令我們興奮的機會，有時會在疲軟的市場中發生。我們正在重新談判許多土地交易，減損損失略有增加，因為我們出售了一些交易的股份。

But that final sign off by our land committee in here, there's a lot of conversations about going back and working to get a little better price because the market is a bit softer. So that's a longer answer to lot cost land prices being flat.

但是，在我們土地委員會的最終批准之後，有很多關於回去爭取更好價格的討論，因為市場行情有點疲軟。所以，這就是關於地價長期持平問題的更詳細解釋。

Michael Rehaut, JPMorgan.

Michael Rehaut，摩根大通。

Wanted to first zero in a little bit and kind of hit the closings guidance. I know Doug, you kind of walked through some of the math and how to get to the midpoint earlier.

想先集中精力稍微調整一下，看看能否達到收盤預期。我知道道格，你之前已經講解過一些數學知識以及如何得出中點。

But on an overall level, given the fact also that you expect the spec mix to be similar in '26 versus '25, you kind of obviously walked through the community count growth.

但從整體上看，考慮到你預計 2026 年的規格組合與 2025 年相似，你顯然已經考慮到了社區數量的增長。

On a kind of looking at it from a different angle, is the guidance for the percent decline in closings largely just driven by Matt from where you're starting out the year with the backlog being down as it is.

換個角度來看，成交量下降百分比的預期是否主要源自於 Matt 的預測，即年初積壓訂單量已經下降？

Or is there some element of a timing of community openings throughout the year or even perhaps a slower sales pace that you're baking in to protect margins, maybe if you were to be a little more aggressive on deliveries, it might be more at the expense of gross margin. So just trying to look at it from a different angle and understand the decline in closings in '26.

或者，您是否在全年社區開放的時間表上做了一些調整，或者放慢了銷售速度以保護利潤率？如果您在配送方面更積極一些，可能會以犧牲毛利率為代價。所以，我只是想從另一個角度來看待這個問題，並了解 2026 年房屋成交量下降的原因。

Mike, it is the lower backlog to begin in '26.

麥克，積壓工作量減少的局面將從 2026 年開始。

Okay. So all those other factors obviously really not coming into play then?

好的。所以其他那些因素顯然都沒有起作用？

Correct. We assume we're going to sell at the same pace. Right now, we're running at about two sales per month per community. We have not assumed that's going to improve.

正確的。我們預計銷售速度將保持不變。目前，我們每個社區每月大約有兩筆銷售。我們並沒有認為情況會好轉。

And so doing the math off of the beginning backlog with those other buckets that I laid out for you earlier in terms of spec under construction, build-to-order that we think can sell and settle and spec permits that we are intending to start to have summer deliveries. But it all starts with that 4,500 beginning year backlog.

因此，根據最初的積壓訂單，加上我之前向你列出的其他類別（例如在建的樣品房、我們認為可以售出並結算的按訂單生產項目以及我們打算在夏季開始交付的樣品房許可證），進行計算。但這一切都始於年初積壓的 4500 件訂單。

Right. Okay. No, that's fair.

正確的。好的。不，這很合理。

Go ahead, please.

請繼續。

No. Why don't you finish your thought? And then I'll ask my second question.

不。為什麼不把你的想法說完呢？然後我會問我的第二個問題。

It's the two per month, which is a pretty low number in the company's history that does a bit better than obviously each of those other buckets can improve. But that's not how we're approaching the guidance for '26.

每月兩筆訂單，這在公司歷史上是一個相當低的數字，但顯然比其他每個訂單類別都要好一些，而且每個類別都有改進的空間。但我們並沒有採用這種方式來制定 2026 年的指導方針。

Right. Okay. Second question kind of on the gross margins. I think you've highlighted the fact that your incentives are roughly flattish, at least most recently. I think you just said you're (technical difficulty) '26 to be flat versus '25.

正確的。好的。第二個問題是關於毛利率的。我認為你已經強調了這樣一個事實：至少在最近一段時間裡，你的激勵機制大致處於平穩狀態。我想你剛才說的是（技術上困難）'26 與 '25 相比是平坦的。

So I just wanted to understand what's driving the sequential decline in gross margins into the first quarter? And then more broadly in the full year?

所以我想了解是什麼原因導致第一季毛利率較上季下降？那麼，更廣泛地說，全年情況如何？

Because I would have assumed if you are assuming incentives being flat I would have thought land cost inflation was be the primary driver of that, but I'd love to understand what let's, what are kind of the impacts, or what are the factors driving 1Q and '26 overall relative to '25?

因為我原本以為，如果假設激勵措施保持不變，那麼土地成本上漲應該是主要驅動因素，但我很想了解，相對於 2025 年，2026 年第一季和整體情況有哪些影響或驅動因素？

Sure. The incentive a year ago on this call was that was out there for us, was $68,000 an ounce. The incentive today is $80,000 a house. That explains the full 27.3, down to 26 margin change. And we are projecting out the year again on that same 80,000.

當然。一年前，我們在這次電話會議上得到的激勵是，每盎司黃金的價格是 68,000 美元。今天的優惠是每間房子8萬美元。這就解釋了利潤率從 27.3 降至 26 的原因。我們再次以相同的 80,000 為基準，對全年進行預測。

Alan Ratner, Zelman Associates.

艾倫·拉特納，澤爾曼聯合公司。

Tough market. Greg, great job on first call. I won't hold the technical snafu against you. So it's all up from here, though.

市場行情艱難。格雷格，第一次通話就做得很好。我不會因為這次技術故障而責怪你。所以，一切都取決於運氣了。

That's all right. They can blame me for the technical snafu.

沒關係。技術故障他們可以把責任推到我身上。

No, we're going to blame (multiple speakers).

不，我們要責怪他們。（多位發言者）

(inaudible) himself. So a lot of my questions are on the guidance, but I think we beat that topic there pretty good. Doug, just thinking about the consumer and your buyer today, obviously, there's a lot of cross currents.

（聽不清楚）他自己。所以我的許多問題都與指導有關，但我認為我們已經很好地討論了這個問題。道格，想想今天的消費者和買家，顯然，有很多相互交織的因素。

The stock market remains strong, but we're hearing confidence is challenging. We're seeing on the resale side, a lot of delisting so people that might have been putting their house up for sale, deciding not to move forward with the sale and maybe some of that is seasonal.

股市依然強勁，但我們了解到市場信心面臨挑戰。我們看到二手房市場出現了大量下架現象，也就是說，有些人原本打算出售房屋，但現在決定不再繼續出售，其中可能有些是季節性因素造成的。

But I heard your encouraging sales data through the first six weeks of the quarter, but are you sensing any change in your consumer confidence or their dire to sell their house because the data would seem to be a bit more alarming on that front?

但我聽說了你們本季前六週令人鼓舞的銷售數據，但您是否感覺到消費者信心或他們急於賣房的意願有任何變化？因為從數據來看，這方面的情況似乎有點令人擔憂？

Yeah. No. We're not I can't, that's why I caution that don't read too much in November and December just because of the seasonality of those months not being slower sales and not telling us a lot. So it's modestly encouraging that the last six weeks are flat to '24, and '24 was up 22% to 23%.

是的。不。我們不能，所以我提醒大家不要在 11 月和 12 月閱讀太多文章，因為這兩個月並非銷售淡季，季節性因素導致文章內容不夠詳盡。因此，過去六週與 24 年持平，而 24 年上漲了 22% 至 23%，多少令人鼓舞。

And that those six weeks were also flat to October, which shouldn't be the case, they should be down. But no, there's nothing I can point to feel great about where the market is, consumer confidence for us, for our client is the number one driver.

而且，這六周到十月份的業績也持平，這不應該發生，業績應該下降才對。但是，不，我找不到任何跡象顯示市場情況大好，對我們和我們的客戶來說，消費者信心是首要驅動因素。

Affordability, mortgage rates, while I will celebrate a 5.5% rate, it's just not as important to our buyer, as we talked about with our buy downs. We market the heck of buydowns, they drive traffic and very, very few people take it.

考慮到購屋能力和抵押貸款利率，雖然我會為 5.5% 的利率感到高興，但這對我們的買家來說並不像我們之前討論過的降價方案那樣重要。我們大力推廣折扣商品，它們能帶來流量，但很少人購買。

And so there's issues around job growth. We still have a lock-in effect, of course, that with 70% of our homes requiring a client to sell their existing home, whether they're moving up or moving down.

因此，就業成長方面存在一些問題。當然，我們仍然存在鎖定效應，即我們 70% 的房屋都需要客戶出售他們現有的房屋，無論他們是升級還是降級。

There's still some that are locked in and just don't want to give up that 3% rate. So those are all real headwinds the passage of time is a bit of a tailwind, right? It's just we're pretty far into this down cycle.

還有一些人仍然被鎖定在3%的利率下，不願放棄。所以這些都是真正的阻力，而時間的流逝則算是一種順風，對吧？只是我們已經深陷這一輪經濟下行週期了。

If you look historically at housing down cycles, we should be on the other side of it and maybe coming out of it. But that's just looking at prior peaks and valleys.

從歷史角度來看，房地產市場低迷週期已經過去，我們現在應該已經度過了低迷期，或許正在走出低迷期。但這只是回顧以往的高峰和低谷。

And as people stay in their beat up old house, and always dreamed of moving those kids up to the pretty Toll Brothers house in a better school district and a bigger lot, joined the fancy Country Club, whatever they want to do with their life.

人們仍然住在破舊的老房子裡，一直夢想著把孩子們搬到托爾兄弟公司在更好的學區和更大的地塊上建造的漂亮房子裡，加入高檔的鄉村俱樂部，無論他們想做什麼。

The passage of time has an amazing psychological effect on people finally saying I've done well in the markets, I have equity in my house. I have a resale market that's pretty darn good, and we're going to bite that finger and move up.

時間的流逝對人們的心理產生了驚人的影響，最終人們會說：“我在股市中賺了不少錢，我的房子也有了淨值。”我的二手房市場相當不錯，我們打算把握這個機會，升級換房。

Now Marty Cotter may not do that because he's a finance geek. But a lot of people want to do that because they want to improve the lives of their kids and their family.

馬蒂·科特可能不會那麼做，因為他是個金融迷。但很多人想這樣做，是因為他們想改善孩子和家人的生活。

And so the passage of time really helps in that regard. But Alan, that's a very soft comment I'm making, right? It's just kind of the psychology of the buyer. But we're getting closer. I think we're getting closer to when we see some light.

因此，時間的流逝在這方面確實很有幫助。但是艾倫，我說的已經是很委婉的說法了，對吧？這其實就是買家的心理問題。但我們正在接近目標。我覺得我們離看到曙光越來越近了。

And I'm excited about that, but I can't point to it. But if there's pressure on rates coming down with a couple of more cuts, if confidence improves a bit, as time moves on, and we're further along in this down cycle, I think there's a great opportunity because of those long-term tailwinds see some improvement.

我對此感到興奮，但我無法指出具體原因。但如果利率面臨下行壓力，再降幾次價，如果市場信心隨著時間的推移有所改善，並且我們在這個下行週期中走得更遠，我認為這是一個絕佳的機會，因為這些長期利好因素會帶來一些改善。

But I can't point to any data point right now, and that is the main reason why we're staying conservative in our '26 guide.

但我現在無法指出任何數據點，這也是我們在 2026 年指南中保持保守的主要原因。

Makes sense. No, understood. I appreciate the comments, even if you call them soft, I think it's helpful just to what you're seeing. Greg, I'm going to put the next spot and then hop off. Just on the share buyback guide for $650 million.

有道理。不，明白了。我很感謝你的評論，即使你認為它們不夠客觀，但我認為它們對你看到的內容很有幫助。格雷格，我去放下一個廣告位，然後就下車。光是股票回購計畫就高達 6.5 億美元。

So pretty flat with the past year. if I look at this past year, I think you did you generated $1.1 billion of cash. You're saying that maybe that's down a little bit, but you also have the sale of the apartment business in there in the first quarter.

所以和去年相比基本持平。如果回顧過去一年，我認為你們創造了11億美元的現金流。你的意思是說，也許這個數字略有下降，但第一季也包含了公寓業務的出售。

So it would seem like unless you're looking to, I don't know, build up cash or delever, which you don't have any debt coming due this year that there should be an opportunity to drive that buyback number decently higher from '25. So what's holding you back there?

所以，除非你打算累積現金或降低槓桿率（而你今年沒有任何債務到期），否則似乎應該有機會將2025年的股票回購數量大幅提高。那是什麼阻礙了你呢？

Sure, Alan. We would like to go higher, but we do think that $650 million is very prudent guide at this point to start the year. So we'll continue to evaluate it throughout the year, but this is where we want to launch.

當然可以，艾倫。我們希望目標更高，但我們認為，在年初這個階段，6.5億美元是一個非常謹慎的指導目標。因此，我們將在今年持續對其進行評估，但這是我們想要推出的版本。

We're going extend for another question because of our friend Drew.

因為我們的朋友德魯，我們還要再加一個問題。

Rafe Jadrosich, Bank of America.

Rafe Jadrosich，美國銀行。

Victoria Fister on for Rafe Jadrosich. My first question is on what are you thinking about stick in brick costs and labor costs for 2026? And what is embedded in the guidance?

維多利亞·菲斯特替補拉夫·賈德羅西奇上場。我的第一個問題是，您認為 2026 年的砌磚成本和人力成本是多少？該指導方針中包含了哪些內容？

Great question. We're seeing a modest decrease in construction costs in most parts of the country, it's either flat or it's down slightly. And maybe $2, maybe $3 a square foot in reduction in building costs. It cost us plus or minus $100 a square foot to build our homes.

問得好。我們看到全國大部分地區的建築成本略有下降，要么持平，要么略有下降。或許每平方英尺可以節省 2 到 3 美元的建築成本。建造我們的房屋，每平方英尺的成本大約是 100 美元左右。

When I started in this business, Rob Parehouse is here with me, we're the old guys. We used to build for $55 a square foot. Remember, Rob, that's a couple of points, right?

我剛入行的時候，羅伯‧帕雷豪斯就和我在一起，我們都是老前輩了。我們以前的建築造價是每平方英尺 55 美元。羅布，記住，那可是幾分啊，對吧？

A couple of percentage points down, which is encouraging, and I think that should continue. We have not built in any continued reduction in building costs for the balance of the year.

下降了幾個百分點，這令人鼓舞，我認為這種趨勢應該會繼續下去。今年剩餘時間內，我們沒有計劃繼續降低建築成本。

That concludes our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to management for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想把會議交還給管理階層，請他們作總結發言。

Thanks, everyone. We appreciate all your interest, all your great questions. We're always here to answer any follow-up questions you may have. have a wonderful, wonderful holiday season, and we look forward to seeing all of you soon. Thanks so much.

謝謝大家。我們感謝大家的關注和提出的所有精彩問題。我們隨時樂意解答您可能遇到的任何後續問題。祝您假期愉快，期待很快與您見面。非常感謝。

Thank you, sir. The conference has now concluded, and we thank you all for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines, and have a wonderful day.

謝謝您，先生。會議已經結束，感謝各位參加今天的報告。現在您可以斷開線路了，祝您有美好的一天。