托爾兄弟 (TOL) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Toll Brothers Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2025 Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) The company is planning to end the call at 9:30 when the market opens. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

早上好，歡迎參加 Toll Brothers 2025 財年第三季電話會議。(操作員指示)該公司計劃在市場開盤時 9:30 結束通話。（操作員指示）請注意，此事件正在被記錄。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Douglas Yearley, CEO. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給執行長道格拉斯·耶爾利 (Douglas Yearley)。請繼續。

Thank you, Drew. Good morning. Welcome, and thank you all for joining us. With me today are Marty Connor, Chief Financial Officer; Rob Parahus, President and Chief Operating Officer; Wendy Marlett, Chief Marketing Officer; and Gregg Ziegler, Senior VP, Treasurer and Head of Investor Relations.

謝謝你，德魯。早安.歡迎大家加入我們，謝謝大家。今天與我一起出席的還有財務長 Marty Connor、總裁兼營運長 Rob Parahus、首席行銷長 Wendy Marlett 和高級副總裁、財務主管兼投資者關係主管 Gregg Ziegler。

As usual, I caution you that many statements on this call are forward-looking based on assumptions about the economy, world events, housing and financial markets, interest rates, the availability of labor and materials, inflation and many other factors beyond our control that could significantly affect future results. Please read our statement on forward-looking information in our earnings release of last night and on our website to better understand the risks associated with our forward-looking statements.

像往常一樣，我提醒您，本次電話會議中的許多聲明都是前瞻性的，基於對經濟、世界事件、住房和金融市場、利率、勞動力和材料的可用性、通貨膨脹以及許多其他我們無法控制的因素的假設，這些因素可能會對未來結果產生重大影響。請閱讀我們昨晚發布的收益報告和網站上關於前瞻性資訊的聲明，以便更好地了解與我們的前瞻性陳述相關的風險。

Before we jump into our quarterly results and our outlook for the remainder of fiscal 2025, I'd like to take a moment to thank Marty for the enormous contributions he has made to our company since he joined us in 2008. As we announced in July, Marty plans to retire from the CFO role at the end of our fiscal year in October.

在我們討論季度業績和 2025 財年剩餘時間的展望之前，我想花點時間感謝 Marty 自 2008 年加入我們以來為公司做出的巨大貢獻。正如我們在 7 月宣布的那樣，Marty 計劃在 10 月財政年度結束時辭去財務長職務。

During his 17 years with Toll Brothers, Marty has been an outstanding leader, business partner, financial steward and good friend. He has played a central role in enhancing value for our stakeholders and helped shape the financial strategies that have been such a vital part of our success. Marty, your intelligence, wit and the spirit of fun you bring to the office every day will be missed by all of us.

在 Toll Brothers 工作的 17 年裡，Marty 一直是一位出色的領導者、商業夥伴、財務管家和好朋友。他在為我們的利害關係人提升價值方面發揮了核心作用，並幫助制定了對我們的成功至關重要的財務策略。馬蒂，我們所有人都會懷念你的智慧、機智和你每天帶到辦公室的快樂精神。

On behalf of the entire Toll Brothers team, thank you. Of course, one of our responsibilities we take very seriously here is developing talent. We have a very deep bench in our finance group, which includes Gregg Ziegler, a familiar name to many of you on this call. I am pleased that Gregg will be stepping up in November to become our next CFO.

我代表整個 Toll Brothers 團隊向您表示感謝。當然，我們非常重視的責任之一就是培養人才。我們的財務團隊擁有非常強大的人才儲備，其中包括格雷格·齊格勒 (Gregg Ziegler)，對於參加這次電話會議的許多人來說，他都是一個熟悉的名字。我很高興格雷格將於 11 月上任，成為我們的下一任財務長。

He has a wealth of experience, including 23-years at Toll Brothers and an unmatched understanding of our business. I look forward to working with him in his new role, and I'm confident that he is the right leader to continue our track record of financial success. With that, let's turn to our third quarter results. I'm very pleased with our performance in the quarter.

他擁有豐富的經驗，包括在 Toll Brothers 工作的 23 年以及對我們業務無與倫比的了解。我期待與他在新的職位上共事，並且我相信他是延續我們財務成功記錄的合適領導者。接下來，讓我們來看看第三季的業績。我對我們本季的表現非常滿意。

In a difficult market, our balanced operating model, broadly diversified luxury business and strategy of prioritizing price and margin over pace continues to pay dividends. In the quarter, we delivered 2,959 homes at an average price of $974,000, generating record third quarter home sale revenues of $2.9 billion. Our adjusted gross margin of 27.5% exceeded guidance by 25 basis points, and our SG&A expense was 8.8% of home sales revenues or 40 basis points better than guidance.

在艱難的市場中，我們均衡的營運模式、廣泛多元化的奢侈品業務以及優先考慮價格和利潤而不是速度的策略繼續帶來回報。本季度，我們交付了 2,959 套房屋，平均價格為 974,000 美元，創造了第三季度 29 億美元的創紀錄房屋銷售收入。我們的調整後毛利率為 27.5%，超出預期 25 個基點，銷售、一般及行政費用佔房屋銷售收入的 8.8%，比預期高出 40 個基點。

The outperformance on both our top line and in our margins contributed to third quarter earnings of $370 million or $3.73 per diluted share. We also returned approximately $226 million to stockholders through dividends and share repurchases in the quarter, positioning us to deliver another year of healthy profitability and solid returns in fiscal 2025.

我們的營業收入和利潤率的優異表現使得第三季的收益達到 3.7 億美元，即每股收益 3.73 美元。本季度，我們還透過股息和股票回購向股東返還了約 2.26 億美元，這使我們能夠在 2025 財年再次實現健康的盈利能力和穩健的回報。

In the quarter, we signed 2,388 net contracts for $2.4 billion. While units were down approximately 4% year-over-year, dollars were flat due to an increase in average sales price to just over $1 million. Our ASP was up 4.5% versus the third quarter of fiscal 2024 and up 3% versus last quarter. We are pleased with the resilience of our luxury business and more affluent customer base.

本季度，我們簽署了 2,388 份淨合同，價值 24 億美元。雖然銷量較去年同期下降了約 4%，但由於平均銷售價格上漲至略高於 100 萬美元，銷售額保持穩定。我們的平均銷售價格比 2024 財年第三季上漲了 4.5%，比上一季上漲了 3%。我們對奢侈品業務的韌性和更富裕的客戶群感到滿意。

While our contract ASP was up and our margin outperformed, our sales volumes have been impacted by the softer market. As a result, and given our strategy of balancing price and pace, we now expect deliveries to be approximately 11,200 homes for the full year at the lower end of our previous range. We are maintaining all other key guidance metrics, including a full year adjusted gross margin of 27.25%.

雖然我們的合約平均售價上漲且利潤率表現出色，但我們的銷售量卻受到了市場疲軟的影響。因此，考慮到我們平衡價格和速度的策略，我們現在預計全年交付房屋數量約為 11,200 套，處於我們之前預期範圍的低端。我們維持所有其他關鍵指導指標，包括全年調整後的毛利率為 27.25%。

In this environment, we continue to actively manage our spec starts and inventory levels on a community-by-community basis to match local market conditions. In some markets, especially in the North region, where inventory remains low and demand is strongest, we have increased spec production. Overall, as local markets evolve in the coming months, we will be making decisions as to how many spec homes to start as we plan ahead for fiscal 2026.

在這種環境下，我們將繼續積極管理每個社區的規格啟動和庫存水平，以適應當地的市場狀況。在某些市場，尤其是北部地區，庫存仍然較低且需求最強勁，我們增加了規格產量。總體而言，隨著未來幾個月當地市場的發展，我們將在規劃 2026 財年時決定開工建造多少套樣品屋。

In addition to the 3,200 specs that are in various stages of construction, we have another 1,800 building permits ready to go. As we see market improvement, we have the ability to quickly ramp up our spec production. Remember, our spec business model is differentiated. We sell our spec homes at various stages of construction, all the way from foundation poured to finished home.

除了處於不同施工階段的 3,200 個規格外，我們還有另外 1,800 個建築許可證準備發放。隨著市場好轉，我們有能力快速提高規格產量。請記住，我們的規範商業模式是差異化的。我們出售處於不同建設階段的樣品房，從澆築地基到竣工房屋。

This offers some of our spec buyers the opportunity to personalize their homes with features and finishes that match their tastes as choice remains a key pillar in the Toll Brothers buying experience while also providing us a faster and more efficient construction schedule. From a pricing perspective, we modestly increased incentives in the third quarter.

這為我們的一些規格買家提供了機會，可以透過符合他們品味的功能和裝飾來個性化他們的房屋，因為選擇仍然是 Toll Brothers 購買體驗的關鍵支柱，同時也為我們提供了更快、更有效率的施工進度。從定價角度來看，我們在第三季適度增加了激勵措施。

The average incentive in new contracts was approximately 8%, up from approximately 7% in the second quarter. At third quarter end, our backlog stood at 5,492 homes valued at $6.376 billion with an average sales price in that backlog of $1.16 million. We are pleased with both the average sales price and the gross margin embedded in our backlog. We also have 3,200 spec homes at various stages of completion.

新合約的平均激勵幅度約為 8%，高於第二季的約 7%。截至第三季末，我們的積壓房屋數量為 5,492 套，價值 63.76 億美元，平均售價為 116 萬美元。我們對積壓訂單的平均銷售價格和毛利率都感到滿意。我們還有 3,200 棟處於不同完工階段的樣品屋。

Our cancellation rate was 3.2% of beginning backlog as compared to 2.4% in last year's third quarter and 2.8% in the second quarter. Our cancellation rate remains the lowest in the industry, continuing to reflect the financial strength of our buyers and demonstrating that they remain comfortable and confident in completing their home purchases.

我們的取消率為期初積壓訂單的 3.2%，去年第三季為 2.4%，第二季為 2.8%。我們的取消率仍然是業內最低的，這繼續反映了我們買家的財務實力，並表明他們在完成購房時仍然感到舒適和自信。

About 26% of our buyers paid all cash in the third quarter, consistent with recent trends and well above our long-term average of 22%. The loan-to-value ratio for financed buyers was approximately 70%, highlighting the strong financial profiles of our customers. We continue to make progress improving construction cycle time. Overall, we have not seen any significant impact on build costs from tariffs, and we do not expect to see any this fiscal year.

第三季度，約有 26% 的買家以全現金支付，這與近期趨勢一致，遠高於我們 22% 的長期平均水平。融資買家的貸款價值比約為 70%，突顯了我們客戶強大的財務狀況。我們在縮短施工週期方面不斷取得進展。總體而言，我們尚未看到關稅對建築成本產生任何重大影響，我們預計本財年也不會看到任何影響。

In fact, we are anticipating that build costs will come down modestly in the foreseeable future. We ended the third quarter with 420 active selling communities. We remain on track to end the fiscal year with 440 to 450 communities, representing 8% to 10% year-over-year community count growth. Our land position remains strong, and we continue to prioritize capital-efficient deal structures that support long-term growth.

事實上，我們預計在可預見的未來建設成本將會適度下降。截至第三季度，我們擁有 420 個活躍銷售社群。我們仍有望在本財年結束時擁有 440 至 450 個社區，這意味著社區數量年增 8% 至 10%。我們的土地地位依然強勁，我們繼續優先考慮支持長期成長的資本高效的交易結構。

In the quarter, we spent $433 million on new land. We remain disciplined in our underwriting and focused on securing high-quality land at attractive returns with a continued emphasis on keeping land off balance sheet as long as practical to enhance capital efficiency. At quarter end, we owned or controlled 76,800 lots, 57% of which were controlled and 43% owned. This land position allows us to continue to be selective, disciplined and focused on efficiency when we assess new land opportunities.

本季度，我們花了 4.33 億美元購買新土地。我們在承保方面保持紀律，並專注於以有吸引力的回報獲得高品質的土地，同時繼續強調盡可能長時間地將土地排除在資產負債表之外，以提高資本效率。截至本季末，我們擁有或控制 76,800 個地塊，其中 57% 為控制地塊，43% 為擁有地塊。這種土地地位使我們能夠在評估新的土地機會時繼續保持選擇性、紀律性並專注於效率。

With that, I'll turn it over to Marty.

說完這些，我就把麥克風交給馬蒂。

Thanks, Doug. I appreciate the kind remarks at the outset and want to express my sincere gratitude for the opportunity afforded to me to be Toll's CFO for the past 15 years. It has been a real honor, and I'm proud of all that Toll Brothers has achieved over the past 1.5 decades. I would also like to express appreciation for the great teams I have here at Toll as well as at home.

謝謝，道格。我首先感謝您的善意評價，並想對過去 15 年來擔任 Toll 財務長的機會表示誠摯的感謝。這對我來說是一種真正的榮譽，我為 Toll Brothers 在過去 15 年裡的成就感到自豪。我也要向 Toll 公司以及家鄉的優秀團隊表示感謝。

I'm proud and pleased that Gregg will be picking up the reins when I step down. Gregg and I have worked closely since my first day, and I have the utmost confidence that Gregg is the right person for the job. Turning back to the numbers. It was a great third quarter. We significantly exceeded our guidance with earnings of $500 million before taxes and $370 million after or $3.73 per diluted share.

我感到自豪和高興，當我卸任後，格雷格將接任領導職務。自從我上任第一天起，格雷格就和我一直密切合作，我非常有信心格雷格是這份工作的合適人選。回到數字。這是一個精彩的第三季。我們大大超出了預期，稅前利潤為 5 億美元，稅後利潤為 3.7 億美元，即每股攤薄收益 3.73 美元。

As Doug mentioned, we delivered 2,959 homes, generating record third quarter home sales revenues of $2.9 billion. This was a 5% increase in units and a 6% increase in dollars compared to last year's third quarter. The average delivered price of $974,000 was in line with the midpoint of our guidance of $975,000 and included approximately $207,000 spent on lot premiums, structural options and design studio upgrades which are highly accretive to our margins.

正如道格所提到的，我們交付了 2,959 套房屋，創造了第三季 29 億美元創紀錄的房屋銷售收入。與去年第三季相比，銷量增加了 5%，銷售額增加了 6%。平均交付價格為 974,000 美元，與我們指導價的中點 975,000 美元一致，其中包括花費約 207,000 美元的地塊溢價、結構選擇和設計工作室升級，這些費用對我們的利潤率有很大的增值作用。

We signed 2,388 net contracts for $2.4 billion in the quarter, a 4% decline in units, but flat in dollars compared to Q3 2024. The average price of contracts signed in the quarter was $1.010 million. The average price in our backlog is even higher at $1.16 million, which includes $234,000 of lot premiums, structural options and design studio upgrades.

本季我們簽署了 2,388 份淨合同，價值 24 億美元，單位數下降 4%，但金額與 2024 年第三季相比持平。本季簽訂的合約平均價格為101萬美元。我們積壓訂單的平均價格甚至更高，為 116 萬美元，其中包括 234,000 美元的地塊溢價、結構選項和設計工作室升級。

Our buyers continue to demonstrate their financial strength and the value they place on their homes with the significant investments they make. Our third quarter adjusted gross margin was 27.5% or 25 basis points better than we had projected and guided. The outperformance was spread evenly across products and regions, and it was attributable to both greater efficiency in our homebuilding operations and favorable mix.

我們的買家透過大量的投資不斷證明他們的財務實力和他們對房屋的重視。我們第三季的調整後毛利率為 27.5%，比我們預測和指導的高出 25 個基點。這種優異表現在各個產品和地區均有體現，這歸功於我們房屋建築業務效率的提高和良好的產品組合。

SG&A as a percentage of revenue was 8.8% in the third quarter compared to 9.0% in the third quarter of 2024, and compared to our guidance of 9.2%. SG&A came in better than expected, primarily due to increased leverage from higher-than-forecast revenues as well as cost controls. We remain very focused on efficiency, and we continue to see the benefits flow through our results.

第三季銷售、一般及行政費用佔收入的百分比為 8.8%，而 2024 年第三季為 9.0%，而我們的預期為 9.2%。銷售、一般及行政開支優於預期，主要由於高於預期的收入以及成本控制所帶來的槓桿率提高。我們始終高度重視效率，我們也不斷看到效益透過我們的成果而產生。

Third quarter joint venture, land sales and other income was $15 million, ahead of our breakeven guidance as we realized gains and income related to several joint ventures in the quarter and saw better-than-forecast earnings in our mortgage operations. Our tax rate in the quarter was 26%.

第三季合資企業、土地銷售和其他收入為 1500 萬美元，高於我們的盈虧平衡預期，因為我們在本季度實現了與幾家合資企業相關的收益和收入，並且我們的抵押貸款業務的收益好於預期。本季我們的稅率為 26%。

I'll turn it over to Gregg to review our balance sheet, financial position and liquidity.

我將把這項工作交給格雷格來審查我們的資產負債表、財務狀況和流動性。

Thanks, Marty. I'm honored to be the next CFO of Toll Brothers and appreciate the confidence you and Doug have shown to me. As we announced earlier this month, in the third quarter, we issued $500 million of 10-year senior notes at a 5.6% coupon. At the same time, we called $350 million of senior notes that were scheduled to mature this November.

謝謝，馬蒂。我很榮幸成為 Toll Brothers 的下一任財務官，並感謝您和 Doug 對我的信任。正如我們本月稍早宣布的那樣，在第三季度，我們發行了 5 億美元的 10 年期優先票據，票面利率為 5.6%。同時，我們贖回了原定於今年 11 月到期的價值 3.5 億美元的優先票據。

With the issuance and redemption, we extended the weighted average years to maturity of our senior notes from 2.5-years to 4.8-years. This comes on top of the refinancing of our credit facilities in our second quarter, which pushed out a revolver and term loan by five-years and increased the size of the revolver by nearly $400 million. We now have no significant bank or senior debt maturities until March of 2027.

透過發行和贖回，我們將優先票據的加權平均到期年限從2.5年延長至4.8年。此外，我們在第二季進行了信貸額度再融資，將循環信貸和定期貸款的期限延長了五年，並使循環信貸額度增加了近4億美元。目前，截至 2027 年 3 月，我們沒有重大銀行債務或優先債務到期。

We finished the third quarter with a net debt-to-capital ratio of 19.3%, $852 million in cash and equivalents and $2.2 billion available under our $2.35 billion revolving bank credit facility. This year, we expect to generate another $1 billion in cash flow from operations. In the quarter, we spent $433 million to acquire 2,755 lots.

截至第三季度，我們的淨負債資本比率為 19.3%，現金及等價物為 8.52 億美元，23.5 億美元循環銀行信貸額度下可用資金為 22 億美元。今年，我們預計將從營運中再產生 10 億美元的現金流。本季度，我們花了 4.33 億美元收購了 2,755 個地塊。

We paid a dividend of $24.2 million and repurchased $201.4 million of common stock at an average price of $112.40. For the full year, we've repurchased approximately $402 million of common stock at an average price of $111.08. We continue to project $600 million of share repurchases for the full year. To summarize, our balance sheet, financial position and liquidity are as strong as they've ever been.

我們派發了2420萬美元的股息，並以平均112.40美元的價格回購了2.014億美元的普通股。全年我們以平均111.08美元的價格回購了約4.02億美元的普通股。我們繼續預計全年股票回購總額將達到6億美元。總而言之，我們的資產負債表、財務狀況和流動性都和以前一樣強勁。

They provide us ample flexibility to both invest in the future growth of our business while also returning capital to stockholders. This has been a pillar of our overall financial strategy for at least the past decade and will continue well into the future.

它們為我們提供了充足的靈活性，既可以投資於我們業務的未來成長，也可以向股東返還資本。至少在過去十年裡，這一直是我們整體財務策略的支柱，並將在未來繼續下去。

Marty, I'll turn it back to you to address guidance.

馬蒂，我會把問題轉回給你，提供指導。

Thanks, Gregg. As usual, our outlook is subject to all the caveats regarding forward-looking information and the assumptions, risks and uncertainties inherent to projections. Based on our backlog, recent sales activity and the number of spec homes completed or currently under construction, we expect to deliver approximately 3,350 homes in our fourth quarter, which comes to approximately 11,200 homes for the full year.

謝謝，格雷格。像往常一樣，我們的展望受制於有關前瞻性資訊的所有警告以及預測固有的假設、風險和不確定性。根據我們的積壓訂單、最近的銷售活動以及已完工或正在建設中的樣品屋數量，我們預計第四季度將交付約 3,350 套房屋，全年交付約 11,200 套房屋。

The average price of deliveries in the fourth quarter is expected to be between $970,000 and $980,000. We continue to expect the full year average delivered price between $950,000 and $960,000. As Doug mentioned, we continue to balance price and margin with pace. This strategy, combined with the gross margin embedded in our backlog gives us confidence in maintaining our full year projected adjusted gross margin of 27.25%.

預計第四季度交付的平均價格在 970,000 美元至 980,000 美元之間。我們仍然預計全年平均交付價格在 950,000 美元至 960,000 美元之間。正如 Doug 所提到的，我們繼續在價格、利潤和速度之間取得平衡。這項策略加上我們積壓訂單中的毛利率，使我們有信心維持全年預計的 27.25% 調整後毛利率。

For the quarter, we expect adjusted gross margin to be 27%. We expect interest and cost of sales to be approximately 1.1% of home sales revenues in the fourth quarter and for the full year. Fourth quarter SG&A as a percentage of home sales revenues is expected to be approximately 8.3%. For the full year, we continue to expect it to be between 9.4% and 9.5%.

我們預計本季調整後的毛利率為 27%。我們預計第四季和全年的利息和銷售成本約佔房屋銷售收入的 1.1%。預計第四季銷售、一般及行政費用佔房屋銷售收入的百分比約為 8.3%。我們預計全年成長率仍將在 9.4% 至 9.5% 之間。

Other income, income from unconsolidated entities and land sales gross profit for the full year is projected to be $110 million. For the fourth quarter, we expect it to be approximately $65 million. We project the fourth quarter tax rate to be approximately 25.5% and the full year rate to be approximately 25.1%. Our community count at quarter end was 420 compared to our guide of 430 as we move some openings into the fourth quarter.

預計全年其他收入、非合併實體收入和土地銷售毛利為 1.1 億美元。對於第四季度，我們預計其收入約為 6500 萬美元。我們預計第四季稅率約為 25.5%，全年稅率約為 25.1%。由於我們將一些空缺職位轉移到第四季度，因此季度末的社區數量為 420，而我們的指導值為 430。

We continue to expect 440 to 450 communities open by the end of the fiscal year. Our weighted average share count is expected to be approximately 98 million for the fourth quarter and 100 million shares for the full year. Putting this all together, we expect to earn approximately $13.75 per diluted share in fiscal 2025, achieve a full year return on beginning equity of approximately 18% and bring our book value to approximately $88 per share at year-end, which would cap off another great year for Toll Brothers.

我們預計本財政年度結束時將有 440 至 450 個社區開放。我們預計第四季的加權平均股數約為 9,800 萬股，全年的加權平均股數約為 1 億股。綜合以上所有因素，我們預計 2025 財年每股攤薄收益約為 13.75 美元，全年期初股本回報率約為 18%，年底賬面價值約為每股 88 美元，這將為 Toll Brothers 又一個偉大的一年畫上圓滿句號。

Now let me turn it back to Doug.

現在讓我把話題轉回給 Doug。

Thank you, Marty. Our results in the third quarter and our projections for the full year reinforce the strength and resiliency of our business model. They prove out our ability to successfully navigate changing market conditions while still delivering attractive returns to stockholders. This is the result of the hard work of all of our Toll employees. It is their passion for our business, dedication to our luxury brand and commitment to our customers that will ensure our continued success.

謝謝你，馬蒂。我們第三季的業績和全年的預測增強了我們商業模式的實力和彈性。它們證明了我們有能力成功應對不斷變化的市場條件，同時仍為股東帶來可觀的回報。這是我們全體 Toll 員工辛勤工作的成果。正是他們對我們業務的熱情、對我們奢侈品牌的奉獻以及對我們客戶的承諾確保了我們持續的成功。

With that, let's open it up for questions. Drew?

好了，讓我們開始提問吧。德魯？

(Operator Instructions) Stephen Kim, Evercore ISI.

（操作員指示）Stephen Kim，Evercore ISI。

Congrats to Gregg and Marty. I guess let me just start off with a simple one. Your cash flow from operations, I think you guided to greater than $1 billion. What was it year-to-date because I didn't see that in the release. And then if I could also ask you, you mentioned construction costs you expect to decline in the near term. I was wondering if you could kind of give us a breakdown on what components you're expecting to get some betterment.

祝賀格雷格和馬蒂。我想讓我從一個簡單的問題開始。我認為您預計您的經營現金流將超過 10 億美元。今年迄今為止的情況如何，因為我沒有在發布中看到。然後如果我還可以問你的話，你提到了預計短期內建築成本會下降。我想知道您是否可以向我們詳細介紹您希望改進的組件。

Sure. Gregg?

當然。格雷格？

Yes. I was trying to find out nine-months to date. This is a little rough. It's probably somewhere in that $400-plus million. So we do expect to see a lot of that pickup happening in Q4 to get to that $1 billion for the year. Which is a result Q1 relatively negative, Q2 starts to even out, Q3 positive.

是的。我試圖找出迄今為止的九個月的情況。這有點粗糙。其價值可能在 4 億多美元左右。因此，我們確實預計第四季將大幅成長，全年銷售額將達到 10 億美元。結果是 Q1 相對負面，Q2 開始趨於平穩，Q3 為正面。

Right. Building costs, flat to modestly down in the short term. Steve, we're just beginning to see trades negotiate a bit more than they were. Suppliers. We're out in the market for some major material supply renewals, and we're making some progress there on good pricing. It's community and market specific. But -- and it's moderate, but building costs are beginning to come down across the board. I can't point to one or two things. It's a combination of both subcontractor contracts for our major trades and materials.

正確的。建築成本短期內持平或略有下降。史蒂夫，我們剛開始看到交易談判比以前多了一點。供應商。我們正在市場上尋找一些主要的材料供應更新，並且在良好的定價方面取得了一些進展。它是針對特定社區和市場的。但是 — — 雖然幅度不大，但建築成本已經開始全面下降。我無法指出一兩件事。這是我們主要行業和材料的分包合約的組合。

John Lovallo, UBS.

瑞銀的約翰·洛瓦洛。

The first one is -- the only concern we're hearing out there really today is that the ability for you guys to grow next year. And maybe I'll frame the question this way. I mean, in the past, you've talked about achieving a sales pace of two communities -- sorry, two homes per community per month on average through the year. I just want to confirm that there's no change to the thinking there. And do you think that this is something that can be achieved in fiscal year '26 after what appears to be closer to maybe 1.8 in 2025?

第一個問題是──我們今天聽到的唯一擔憂是你們明年的成長能力。也許我會這樣提出這個問題。我的意思是，過去，您曾談到實現兩個社區的銷售速度——對不起，全年平均每個社區每月兩套房屋。我只是想確認那裡的想法沒有改變。您是否認為，在 2025 年的成長率可能接近 1.8% 之後，這一目標可以在 2026 財年實現？

Yes. So John, as you know, we're going to give all sorts of great details on '26 in December. We are very focused on '26. We are very -- excited by the community count growth we will see next year. In fact, we are expecting 20 to 30 openings in Q4 when you do the math off of the numbers we gave you of where community count stands at the end of Q3 and where we think it will be at the end of the year.

是的。所以約翰，如你所知，我們將在 12 月提供有關 26 的各種詳細資訊。我們非常關注'26。我們對明年社區數量的成長感到非常興奮。事實上，根據我們提供的第三季末社區數量以及我們認為年底的數量計算，我們預計第四季度會有 20 到 30 個職缺。

We've had some terrific openings lately. We just opened a community this weekend in Philadelphia that took 21 deposits. We actually shut down the action that got so hot at $2 million in Bucks County, Pennsylvania. We have a community in Irvine Ranch, Southern Cal that has taken 24 contracts north of $6 million in the last month.

我們最近有一些很棒的開局。本週末我們剛在費城開設了一個社區，接受了 21 份存款。我們實際上停止了在賓州巴克斯縣舉行的價值 200 萬美元的激烈活動。我們在南加州爾灣牧場有一個社區，上個月已經簽訂了 24 份價值超過 600 萬美元的合約。

We are positioning ourselves with the communities that are opening and with the business we have to set up for next year. We have 3,200 spec homes in process. We have 1,800 spec permits that we are ready to start homes on as we see market improvement. And as I mentioned, we're already beginning to do that in the north. We have fewer shares right now, and we're going to have even fewer shares next year that helps drive some EPS.

我們正在為即將開放的社區和明年要開展的業務做好定位。我們有 3,200 套樣品屋正在興建中。我們擁有 1,800 份規格許可證，隨著市場好轉，我們已準備好開始建造房屋。正如我所提到的，我們已經開始在北方這樣做了。我們目前的股票數量較少，明年我們的股票數量將會更少，這有助於提高每股盈餘。

Average price is up. That $1.16 million average price in backlog, which right now is about 5,500 homes is significant. But even on the homes we're selling today, the average price is up to $1 million. Build time, cycle time has come down. We now have about 35% of our communities that can build houses in eight months or less. That gives us more visibility more ability to sell homes into the early part of the spring selling season and still have those homes delivered by the end of the fiscal year.

平均價格上漲。積壓房屋的平均價格為 116 萬美元，目前約有 5,500 套，這是一個相當大的數字。但即使是我們今天出售的房屋，平均價格也高達 100 萬美元。建置時間、週期時間已經縮短。目前，我們大約有 35% 的社區能夠在八個月或更短的時間內建造房屋。這讓我們更清楚地了解在春季銷售季節初期出售房屋的能力，並且仍然可以在財政年度結束前交付這些房屋。

One of the things we look at all the time is what do we think a local market will look like next summer when most people want to close on their home to get their kids into school and when do we have to start new specs to have those homes ready next summer. And those decisions are all dependent about how long it takes to build the specs in each given community and what the market demand looks like in that community.

我們一直在關注的事情之一是，當大多數人想在明年夏天買下房子以便送孩子上學時，我們認為當地市場會是什麼樣子，以及我們什麼時候必須開始新的規格以便讓這些房子在明年夏天準備好。這些決定都取決於在每個特定社區中建立規範需要多長時間以及該社區的市場需求如何。

And we are evaluating those opportunities daily and making the appropriate decisions as we move through it. On the macro level, rates have come down nicely. We're now at 6 3/8 here at Toll Brothers. It looks like short-term rates are going to be coming down for the balance of the year and hopefully into next year. While there's not a direct correlation between those short-term rates and the 30-year mortgage, it's certainly encouraging.

我們每天都在評估這些機會，並在過程中做出適當的決定。從宏觀層面來看，利率已大幅下降。我們現在在 Toll Brothers 這裡是 6 3/8。看起來短期利率在今年餘下時間將會下降，並有望持續到明年。雖然短期利率和 30 年期抵押貸款之間沒有直接的相關性，但這無疑是令人鼓舞的。

There's pent-up demand building out there every day. There's still such an imbalance between supply and demand. And every day, we have buyers who have been on the sidelines who are waiting to come back in. And of course, the demographics are terrific. Our traffic is up, both web traffic and foot traffic in August. We're heading into the fall, which is a better time.

每天都有被壓抑的需求在增加。供需之間仍然存在不平衡。每天，我們都會遇到一些一直在場外等待回來的買家。當然，人口統計數據也非常棒。我們的流量有所上升，包括八月份的網路流量和人流量。我們即將進入秋季，這是一個更好的時節。

So I told you I wasn't going to give you any guide on '26 into December. And I don't think I've given you any guide except that we are positioned and very focused to have a good '26. We understand that we do need to drive activity through the community openings and through the spec strategy that we have employed. And we're ready to go. It's a big focus of us, and we're excited for the future year.

所以我告訴過你，我不會給你任何關於 26 日至 12 月的指南。我認為我沒有給你們任何指導，只是我們已做好準備並非常專注於取得 26 年的良好成績。我們明白，我們確實需要透過社區開放和我們所採用的規範策略來推動活動。我們準備出發了。這是我們的重點，我們對未來一年充滿期待。

We continue to have great leverage over SG&A. We're really proud of what we've done there. And as we continue to build spec, that leverage increases. And so there you have it. Sorry for the long answer, but it gave me an opportunity to give you sort of my feeling about the market. I feel better today than I did a few months ago.

我們繼續對銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 擁有很大的影響力。我們對於在那裡所做的事情感到非常自豪。隨著我們不斷建立規範，這種槓桿作用也會增加。就是這樣了。抱歉回答得這麼長，但這讓我有機會向大家表達我對市場的感受。我今天感覺比幾個月前好多了。

I think the economy is starting to heal. I think the buyers are beginning to come back out. I think rates dropping a little bit. It's more psychological for our client than it is affordability wise because we have more of a luxury client that can afford our homes. They just have to feel good about the economy. So we'll have to see what the fall brings. But we are positioned, particularly with all these specs that permit to be nimble and react quickly. And I'm feeling -- certainly feeling better than I was a few months ago.

我認為經濟正在開始復甦。我認為買家已經開始回歸了。我認為利率會下降一點。對於我們的客戶來說，這更多的是心理因素而不是經濟承受能力，因為我們擁有更多的能夠負擔得起我們房子的奢侈品客戶。他們只是對經濟感到滿意。所以我們必須看看秋天會帶來什麼。但我們已做好準備，特別是擁有所有這些允許我們靈活並快速做出反應的規格。我的感覺——肯定比幾個月前好多了。

Yes. That's really helpful, Doug. And that's really what I was trying to get at is the backlog maybe being down a bit from where people would have thought it might be perhaps. You guys still feel comfortable with the community count growth in 2026 and the ability to drive orders to drive growth as we move into the next couple of years.

是的。這真的很有幫助，道格。我真正想知道的是，積壓數量可能比人們想像的要少一些。你們仍然對 2026 年的社區數量增長以及在未來幾年推動訂單增長的能力感到滿意。

We do, very much so. And we're really excited about our land positions, and we haven't guided yet. But on the last call, I gave a soft guide that we have similar community count growth projected for '26. I can reaffirm that. We just have terrific land and terrific communities coming. So it's all good.

我們非常相信。我們對我們的陸地位置感到非常興奮，但我們還沒有給出指導。但在最後一次通話中，我給了一個軟指導，即我們預計 26 年社區數量將有類似的增長。我可以重申這一點。我們擁有優質的土地和優質的社區。所以一切都很好。

Michael Dahl, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Michael Dahl。

Marty heck of a run, congrats. And congrats, Gregg. Just a follow-up. Can you help us walk through how sales pace trended through the quarter and maybe elaborate a little more on your August comments? And the follow-up question would be similarly, if you think about the incentive ending up at 8% versus 7%. I think a lot of your peers talked about sequentially increasing incentives through each month of the summer period.

馬蒂跑得真棒，恭喜。恭喜你，格雷格。只是後續行動。您能否幫助我們了解本季的銷售速度趨勢，並進一步闡述您八月份的評論？而後續問題也類似，如果你考慮激勵最終是 8% 而不是 7%。我想很多同行都談到了在夏季每個月逐步增加激勵措施。

So if you could talk about how that shook out for you and whether we should be thinking the exit rate on incentives was higher than that 8%. Sorry, that's two questions in there, but those are my two.

因此，如果您可以談談這對您有何影響，以及我們是否應該認為激勵的退出率高於 8%。抱歉，這裡有兩個問題，但這是我的兩個問題。

We understand. So May was the worst month. June and July were better. August has been similar to what we saw throughout the quarter. No, the incentives are not up at the end of July from where they were in May or they're not up today from where they were in July or June. The increase in incentive from that 7% to 8% is primarily driven by a little bit more discounting we had to do with some finished spec.

我們明白。所以五月是最糟糕的月份。六月和七月的情況較好。八月份的情況與我們整個季度看到的情況類似。不，7 月底的激勵水準並沒有比 5 月份的水準有所提高，今天的激勵水準也沒有比 7 月份或 6 月份的水準有所提高。激勵從 7% 增加到 8% 主要是因為我們對一些成品規格給予了更多折扣。

As we continue to explain, and I know you all understand our spec strategy is a bit different where we do sell a number of our specs earlier where the client can hit the design studio, buy a bunch of upgrades, feel like it is a custom home even though we started it, and that process is very accretive to us and the margin has been closer to build-to-order margin when we sell those specs earlier.

正如我們繼續解釋的那樣，我知道你們都明白我們的規格策略有點不同，我們確實提前出售了一些規格，客戶可以進入設計工作室，購買一堆升級產品，感覺它是一棟定制住宅，儘管是我們開始的，這個過程對我們來說非常有增值作用，當我們提前出售這些規格時，利潤率更接近按訂單生產的利潤率。

But we do have a number of finished specs in some markets that are under a bit of pressure, and that explains the little bit of an increase you see on the average incentive. I am a little bit encouraged. It's early, but over the last three weeks, we have seen the incentive in finished specs moderate a bit. So no, it's, in fact, not what you described, which is maybe going up a bit, but it's actually stabilized or come down a little bit. And again, it's only three weeks, so we'll have to see.

但在某些面臨一定壓力的市場中，我們確實有一些成品規格，這也解釋了平均激勵措施略有增加的原因。我稍微受到一點鼓舞。現在還為時過早，但在過去的三週裡，我們已經看到成品規格的激勵有所緩和。所以，不，事實上，它不是你所描述的那樣，可能會上升一點，但實際上已經穩定下來或下降了一點。再說一次，只有三週的時間，所以我們還得拭目以待。

But we -- as I mentioned earlier, our web traffic in August is up. That exact number is around 5% to 10% and our foot traffic into our communities is up about 15%. It is taking people longer to deposit because they're more cautious, but our conversion ratio from deposit to agreement of sale is about the highest it's ever been around 80%.

但是，正如我之前提到的，我們八月份的網路流量有所上升。這個確切的數字大約是 5% 到 10%，而我們社區的客流量增加了約 15%。由於人們更加謹慎，所以他們花了更長的時間來存款，但我們從存款到銷售協議的轉換率達到了歷史最高水平，約為 80%。

So four out of five people that go to deposit are several weeks later pressing firmly and moving forward with a binding agreement. I mean, historically, that number when I was a kid in this business was running like 60%. So it takes a bit longer to get them to the table to deposit, but then they stick. And so we haven't seen an immediate impact from the rates dropping from, call it, 6.75 or 6.58 down to 6.38.

因此，五分之四的存款者在幾週後都會堅持要求並達成具有約束力的協議。我的意思是，從歷史上看，當我還是個孩子的時候，從事這個行業，這個數字大約是 60%。因此，讓他們到桌邊存款需要更長的時間，但之後他們就會堅持下去。因此，我們還沒有看到利率從 6.75 或 6.58 降至 6.38 的直接影響。

It's only been a couple of weeks. I wouldn't have expected it to be that immediate, particularly for our client where it's not, oh my gosh, now I can afford that monthly payment. Let me jump in. It's -- our clients don't think that way. Plus it's August. We're closing up summer houses. We're getting kids back to school. I think people might be waiting to see if the rates come down a little bit more.

才過了幾個星期而已。我沒有想到它會這麼快就收到，特別是對於我們的客戶來說，天哪，現在我可以負擔得起每月的還款了。讓我加入吧。但我們的客戶可不這麼認為。而且現在已經是八月了。我們正在關閉避暑別墅。我們正在讓孩子們重返校園。我認為人們可能正在等待看利率是否會進一步下降。

We're going to know a lot more through the month of September. And I am anticipating as these rates settle into the market, we're going to see more demand coming out from all this pent-up demand that's been waiting on the sidelines.

整個九月我們將會了解更多的資訊。我預計，隨著這些利率在市場上穩定下來，我們將看到更多的需求從所有這些被壓抑的需求中釋放出來。

Stephen Kim, Evercore ISI.

史蒂芬金 (Stephen Kim)，Evercore ISI。

Stephen, I'm sorry, Drew cut you off.

史蒂芬，對不起，德魯打斷了你。

I'll get even with Drew later. So question, I guess, on the volumes that we saw the orders. I think last year, Doug, you had referred to the order cadence. I think you had sort of talked about how typically 4Q orders are down about 10% from third quarter. And you had said last year that was going to be different and all that. You kind of called that out, if I recall.

我稍後會報復德魯。所以我想，問題在於我們看到的訂單數量。道格，我想去年您曾提過訂單節奏。我想您已經談到第四季度的訂單量通常比第三季度下降約 10%。您去年就說過情況會有所不同等等。如果我沒記錯的話，您確實說過這一點。

Can you talk to us about what the order picture you think would look like this year as we move sequentially from 3Q to 4Q? Is there anything that would be helpful for us as we think about your near-term plans on absorptions?

您能否與我們談談，隨著我們從第三季度連續過渡到第四季度，您認為今年的訂單情況會是什麼樣的？當我們考慮您近期的吸收計畫時，有什麼對我們有幫助的嗎？

So I'll take a shot at this, Steve. I think our community count growth in the fourth quarter is going to be outsized compared to other quarters this year and a year ago. So that gives us encouragement. We see rates have dropped 50 basis points as we head to our fourth quarter. That's got to be a positive. We've had some of these new openings that Doug mentioned that have really jump started right out of the gate for the fourth quarter.

所以我會嘗試一下，史蒂夫。我認為，與今年和去年其他季度相比，我們第四季度的社區數量成長將會非常大。這給了我們鼓勵。隨著第四季的臨近，我們看到利率已經下降了 50 個基點。這必定是正面的。道格提到的一些新機會確實在第四季一開始就發揮了作用。

And as Doug mentioned, he's feeling better than he did a couple of months ago. So all that builds some optimism as we head to our fourth quarter here.

正如道格所說，他現在感覺比幾個月前好多了。因此，當我們進入第四季度時，所有這些都給我們帶來了一些樂觀情緒。

And, Steve, as you know, because you know the numbers so well, our fourth quarter is historically about 4% down from Q3. I've already mentioned that for three weeks of August, which is a very short glimpse into what's going to happen, we're about flat to Q3, but that's deposits. That's not even agreements. That's just a couple of weeks of taking the deposit checks. So we'll have to see.

史蒂夫，正如你所知，因為你非常了解這些數字，從歷史上看，我們的第四季比第三季下降了約 4%。我已經提到過，八月份的三週，這只是對即將發生的情況的一個非常簡短的了解，我們與第三季度基本持平，但那是存款。這甚至不算是協議。這僅僅是接受存款支票的幾週時間。所以我們得拭目以待。

What Marty described is spot on. It gives us some optimism, but we'll just have to see how the balance of August and September and October play out. We are well positioned with the community openings we have, with the interest we have, the interest list we have and some of those openings that are coming. But we'll just have to see how it plays out.

馬蒂的描述非常準確。這給了我們一些樂觀的感覺，但我們只需要看看八月、九月和十月的平衡情況如何。憑藉我們擁有的社區空缺、我們的興趣、我們的興趣清單以及一些即將出現的空缺，我們處於有利地位。但我們只需看看結果如何。

But historically, it's down 4% and first three weeks of August have been flat. So it's trending about where history would suggest it should, but we do have some reason to be optimistic that we could do better.

但從歷史上看，這一數字下降了 4%，而 8 月的前三週則持平。因此，它的趨勢與歷史所顯示的一致，但我們確實有理由樂觀地認為我們可以做得更好。

Trevor Allinson, Wolfe Research.

特雷弗·阿林森（Trevor Allinson），沃爾夫研究公司。

I'll echo congratulations to both Marty and Gregg as well. The first question, we've heard a few builders talk about seeing some relief on development costs. A couple of questions around that. Are you guys also seeing some softening on development? How widespread is that? And then if you are, what's the timeline for when that starts to flow through your P&L? And how much benefit do you think you could perceive from that from what you're seeing currently?

我也要向 Marty 和 Gregg 表示祝賀。第一個問題，我們聽到一些建築商談到開發成本減輕。圍繞這個話題有幾個問題。你們是否也看到了一些發展上的軟化？這種現像有多普遍？那麼，如果是的話，什麼時候開始流入您的損益表的時間表是怎樣的？從您目前看到的情況來看，您認為您可以從中看到多少好處？

Trevor, we have not seen much relief on land development costs. There may very well be some downward pressure if there is less activity for land developers and they become a bit more aggressive in their pricing. But I don't think we've experienced that yet.

特雷弗，我們並沒有看到土地開發成本有太大的減輕。如果土地開發商的活動減少，並且在定價上變得更具侵略性，那麼很可能會出現一些下行壓力。但我認為我們還沒有經歷過這種情況。

Okay. Got you. Makes sense. And then the second question on the 4Q community count guide. It looks like a really nice jump here sequentially going from 420 to 445. How should we think about the timing of those? Do they come on pretty ratably throughout the course of the quarter? Or is there a good portion that's scheduled to open up near the end of the quarter? And then any regional concentration that we should be considering?

好的。明白了。有道理。然後是關於 4Q 社區計數指南的第二個問題。從 420 到 445 的連續跳躍看起來確實很不錯。我們該如何考慮這些時機？在整個季度中，他們的表現是否相當出色？或者是否有相當一部分計劃在本季末開放？那我們應該考慮哪些區域集中度呢？

So it's spread throughout. There's no real concentration in terms of timing. And remember, that's a net number at 445. So there are some communities that are closing, selling out in the next 2.5 months. So the gross number of openings will actually be modestly more than that '25 that gets you from 420 to 445 because of sellouts. Regionally, it's pretty well spread, right, guys, around the country. So there's no -- I wouldn't call it any particular regional concentration.

所以它就傳遍了各地。在時間安排方面沒有真正的集中。請記住，這是淨數字 445。因此，有些社區將在未來 2.5 個月內關閉並出售。因此，由於門票銷售一空，實際開票總數實際上會略高於 25 個門票，即從 420 個增加到 445 個。從地區來看，它在全國各地傳播得相當廣泛。所以不存在——我不會稱之為任何特定的區域集中。

I'm sorry. North Mid-Atlantic South seems to be a little bit of the concentration for Q4 openings.

對不起。北中大西洋南部地區似乎是第四季開業的重點地區。

I like that considering Boston to Washington, D.C. is our strongest corridor. Charlotte. Charlotte has been hot lately. So there you go. A little bit more in the North, Mid-Atlantic and South.

我很高興看到波士頓到華盛頓特區是我們最強大的走廊。夏洛特。夏洛特最近很紅。就這樣吧。北部、中大西洋地區和南部稍微多一點。

Sam Reid, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的薩姆·里德。

Congrats to Marty and Gregg. Gregg, looking forward to keeping it going. I wanted to talk cycle times. 35% of your communities can build in eight-months or less. It's a great, very helpful stat. Can you just talk to what cycle times look like across the remaining 65% of your communities? And then when we think about ways to improve that on the spec and build-to-order side, just talk through levers that you can pull to improve cycle times into next year.

恭喜 Marty 和 Gregg。格雷格，期待繼續下去。我想談談週期時間。 35％的社區可以在八個月或更短的時間內建成。這是一個非常棒、非常有用的統計數據。您能否談談其餘 65% 社區的周期時間是怎樣的？然後，當我們考慮如何在規格和按訂單生產方面進行改進時，只需討論可以利用哪些槓桿來縮短明年的周期時間。

So the balance of 65% would be eight months in a day to probably 11-months. And the 11-months, we'll take the extreme is really big houses that have probably a lot of build-to-order with a lot of money spent in the design studio and maybe a lot of structural options that are being offered and the houses are more complicated.

因此，65% 的餘額將是一天中的 8 個月到大概 11 個月。在這 11 個月裡，我們將採取極端的做法，建造大型房屋，這些房屋可能有很多是按訂單建造的，在設計工作室花費了大量資金，可能還提供了很多結構選擇，而且房屋更加複雜。

They may very well be in towns that have some difficult permitting and inspection processes that can slow you down a little bit. They could also be in locations where we have significant backlog because we've been hot, and it just takes a little bit longer to build. So every community has its own story, but that is generally the reason why we have some that are still stuck at 11-months.

他們所在的城鎮很可能有一些複雜的許可和檢查流程，可能會讓你的速度稍微慢下來。他們也可能位於我們有大量積壓訂單的地區，因為我們一直很熱，而且建造時間只需要更長一點。所以每個社區都有自己的故事，但這通常是為什麼有些社區仍然停留在 11 個月的原因。

And how do we get better? We just keep doing what we're doing, which is working really hard. We have teams out there that study every home we build, every day, why we lost a day here or there, what we can do to improve it how we make our floor plans and our architecture more efficient, more optimized, how we get people through the design studios faster.

我們怎樣才能變得更好？我們只是繼續做我們正在做的事情，那就是努力工作。我們每天都有團隊研究我們建造的每一個房屋，研究為什麼我們會在這裡或那裡浪費一天的時間，我們可以做些什麼來改進它，如何讓我們的平面圖和建築更有效率、更優化，如何讓人們更快地完成設計工作室。

We track how many days it takes somebody to get through that design studio and sign off so we can get going. So we are all over it. I am so proud of the progress we've made, and there is more to come. The spec side of the business helps a lot, too.

我們追蹤某人完成設計工作室並簽字需要多少天，以便我們能夠開始工作。所以我們對此都很關注。我為我們所取得的進步感到自豪，未來還會有更多進步。業務的規格方面也有很大幫助。

Exactly.

確切地。

As a 50% spec builder now, those homes don't have a customer yet in the early stages. So we don't have -- we're able to build them a lot faster because we pick the finishes, we pick the structural changes. We can go full speed without waiting for a design studio process, without reacting to a client's walk-through on Sunday afternoon as the house is under construction. And that certainly helped bring the overall cycle time down.

作為目前 50% 規格的建築商，這些房屋在早期階段還沒有客戶。所以我們沒有——我們能夠更快地建造它們，因為我們選擇了飾面，我們選擇了結構變化。我們可以全速前進，無需等待設計工作室的流程，也不用在房屋建造期間在周日下午對客戶的訪問做出反應。這確實有助於縮短整體週期時間。

And on the front end, we have that permit sitting on a shelf. We don't have to spend incremental time to go get that permit for those spec homes.

在前端，我們將該許可證放在架上。我們不必花費大量時間去取得這些樣品屋的許可證。

No, that helps, guys. Really appreciate it. Maybe switching to another line item on the P&L. In the prepared remarks, you alluded to better cost controls behind the SG&A beat versus guide. Would just love a little bit of context in terms of what those cost controls were, how sustainable that is perhaps into 2026? And then thinking about Q4 specifically, you've got a step-up in community count quarter-over-quarter. Would just love to know any grand opening expenses that might be embedded in that guidance for SG&A.

不，這有幫助，夥計們。真的很感激。也許切換到損益表上的另一個項目。在準備好的評論中，您提到銷售、一般及行政開支超出預期是成本控制得更好。我想知道這些成本控制的具體背景是什麼，以及到 2026 年這些成本控制的可持續性如何？然後具體考慮第四季度，你會發現社區數量比上一季增加。我很想知道該指南中可能包含的開業費用（SG&A）。

Sure. So our cost controls span the gamut of cost. We've done a great job of maintaining pretty stable headcount despite growth in community count. We've maintained inside and outside sales commissions at a reasonable level despite the challenging market. And we continue to benefit from the technology investments we've made over the last six-years or seven-years in terms of our systems from a CRM and an ERP perspective and even in HR side.

當然。因此我們的成本控制涵蓋了所有成本。儘管社區人數不斷增長，但我們仍出色地保持了相當穩定的員工人數。儘管市場充滿挑戰，我們仍將內部和外部銷售佣金維持在合理水準。我們繼續受益於過去六年或七年來在 CRM 和 ERP 系統甚至人力資源方面的技術投資。

There is pressure on some costs. Insurance costs are pressured. And there are incremental costs associated with community count openings, but they're all baked into our guidance.

部分成本存在壓力。保險成本面臨壓力。社區計數開放會產生增量成本，但這些成本都已包含在我們的指導中。

And just to remind everyone, one of the primary reason why the Q4 guide on SG&A is modestly higher is because of all these communities we are opening that have front-end expenses without the revenue coming in yet.

需要提醒大家的是，第四季度銷售、一般及行政費用指南略高的主要原因之一是，我們正在開放的所有這些社區都有前期支出，但尚未產生收入。

Alan Ratner, Zelman & Associates.

艾倫·拉特納（Alan Ratner），澤爾曼與合夥人公司。

I'll add congrats to Marty and Gregg there. Looking forward to working with Gregg. So on the spec mix, Doug, I think you mentioned it's 50-50 today. Can you just refresh our memory what it was pre-COVID or kind of in more normal times? And what the margin differential currently is on your spec product maybe across the three buckets in terms of completion status versus the build-to-order home?

我要向 Marty 和 Gregg 表示祝賀。期待與 Gregg 合作。因此，關於規格組合，道格，我認為你提到今天的比例是 50-50。您能否讓我們回憶一下新冠疫情之前或更正常時期的情況？那麼，就完工狀態和按訂單生產的房屋而言，您的規格產品在三個方面的利潤差異目前是多少？

Sure. In the old days, 10% to 15% was our spec business. I remember when I was a kid and I was a project manager in the field, Bob Toll would give us one spec per community. And if we wanted to build a second spec, we had to go see him personally. So --

當然。過去，10% 到 15% 是我們的投機業務。我記得當我還是個孩子的時候，我是該領域的專案經理，鮑勃·托爾 (Bob Toll) 會給我們每個社區一個規範。如果我們想要建立第二個規範，我們必須親自去見祂。所以--

What answer would he give you?

他會給你什麼答案？

And he would put you through the ringer is what he would do so that you wouldn't come back the next time. So yes, I'd say 10% to 15% up to where we are today. The margin delta between spec and build-to-order is consistent with what we've been talking about for the last few quarters. It has widened a little bit. We're really pleased that the build-to-order side of the business has gone up to north of 30%.

他會讓你經得起嚴峻的考驗，這樣你下次就不會再來了。所以是的，我認為到目前為止，成長率將達到 10% 到 15%。規格和按訂單生產之間的利潤差異與我們過去幾季所討論的情況一致。它已經變寬了一點。我們非常高興看到按訂單生產業務的份額增長了 30% 以上。

And again, on the spec side, it depends a lot on when we sell the house in terms of the timing during the construction cycle. And of late, as I described, some of these finished specs we have, we've had to discount a bit more. But we love the business. And the combined margin in that 27% range, as we talked about, we think is the right way to run the business.

再次，從規格方面來看，這很大程度上取決於我們在施工週期中何時出售房屋。最近，正如我所描述的，我們不得不對其中一些成品規格進行更多的折扣。但我們熱愛這項事業。正如我們所說，我們認為 27% 左右的綜合利潤率是經營業務的正確方式。

There's tremendous capital efficiency that is brought to us by the spec business. There's obviously opportunities to pivot as we've been talking about with all these spec permits, we have to move pretty quickly if we want to, to try to fill that hole in the future when the time comes for people to want to move in. So we have a 27% average, as we talked about last quarter, we were just north of 30% -- around 30% or just north of 30% on build-to-order, call that 3 points plus or minus up.

投機業務為我們帶來了巨大的資本效率。正如我們討論的所有這些規格許可證一樣，顯然存在著轉變的機會，如果我們願意，我們必須迅速採取行動，以便在將來人們想要搬進來時填補這個空白。因此，我們的平均值為 27%，正如我們上個季度所討論的那樣，我們的按訂單生產率略高於 30% - 約為 30% 或略高於 30%，可以稱之為正負 3 個百分點。

And so obviously, if it's 50-50, the math would tell you we're about 3 points plus or minus down for the spec business.

因此，顯然，如果比例是 50-50，那麼數學計算就會告訴你，我們的投機業務大約會下降 3 個百分點左右。

Got it. That's really helpful. And I guess my follow-up is a more difficult question, but presuming you don't maybe get back to 90% build-to-order, it sounds like if you can get that share a little bit higher, that would certainly be a positive for your margin and certainly for the visibility in your business. How do this Toll and the industry get back to a more normal build-to-order or spec mix?

知道了。這真的很有幫助。我想我的後續問題比較難，但假設您可能無法恢復到 90% 的按訂單生產，聽起來如果您可以將這個份額提高一點，這肯定會對您的利潤率產生積極影響，並且肯定會提高您業務的知名度。Toll 和整個行業如何恢復到更正常的按訂單生產或規格組合模式？

I mean it seems like everybody has kind of pivoted very hard towards spec. And during the early stages of the pandemic when resale inventory was so tight, that made a lot of sense. But now it almost feels like builders are kind of forced to keep the spec machine running if they want to maintain growth and have the volume ready to go. So I'm just curious how you see this playing out and what can be done to get back to a more normal build-to-order mix?

我的意思是，似乎每個人都非常努力地轉向規格。在疫情初期，轉售庫存非常緊張，這很有意義。但現在感覺，如果建築商想要保持成長並保證產量，他們就必須保持規格機器的運作。所以我只是好奇您如何看待這種情況以及如何才能恢復到更正常的按訂單生產組合？

Alan, it's a good question, and I'm not sure what back to normal is going to mean in the future because I think the industry for some time now has been pretty committed to some level of spec construction. We, as I described, had very few spec, and we are very comfortable at 50-50 even in this somewhat softer environment. We're getting really good at it.

艾倫，這是個好問題，我不確定恢復正常在未來意味著什麼，因為我認為一段時間以來，該行業一直致力於某種程度的規範建設。正如我所描述的，我們的規格非常少，即使在這種稍微柔和的環境中，我們在 50-50 的情況下也感覺非常舒適。我們在這方面做得越來越好了。

Our construction teams are not picking the structural changes that go into spec. They're certainly not picking the finished choices that go into spec. We have national designers that decorate our model homes that have come up with different packages, and we market those. These are curated packages that have been picked by the designer that you're walking through a model home and you fall in love with the decorating.

我們的施工團隊不會選擇符合規格的結構變更。他們當然不會選擇符合規格的最終選擇。我們擁有全國各地的設計師來裝飾我們的樣品房，並設計出不同的方案，然後我們進行行銷。這些都是由設計師精心挑選的套餐，當您參觀樣品屋時，您會愛上它的裝飾。

And we tell you that our -- the spec you're interested in was designed by that nationally acclaimed decorator who just decorated this model you love. And so we're selling them at different stages. I like the business. I mean, will it move from 40% to 50%, maybe to 60% back to 40%? Sure. And a lot of that is market specific. But I don't think your thesis that when do we get back to the good old days of 90% build-to-order, I don't see it.

我們告訴您，您感興趣的規格是由那位剛剛裝飾了您喜愛的這款車型的全國知名裝飾師設計的。因此我們在不同的階段銷售它們。我喜歡這個生意。我的意思是，它會從 40% 升至 50%，甚至升至 60%，再回到 40% 嗎？當然。其中很多都是特定於市場的。但我不認為你的論點是什麼時候我們才能回到 90% 按訂單生產的美好舊時代，我沒有看到這一點。

And you're hearing that from the one company that did the least spec out there. So it's fluid. You have to really manage it closely. But I -- the buyers today also, particularly the millennials that are coming along that are more affluent and are not just buying more expensive first homes at 38 years old, but they're now in their 40s moving up. They're not all that interested in waiting a year and designing their custom house.

而您是從一家規格最低的公司那裡聽到的。所以它是流動的。你必須嚴密管理它。但我——今天的買家也是如此，特別是正在崛起的千禧世代，他們更加富裕，不僅在 38 歲時購買更昂貴的第一套房子，而且他們現在已經 40 多歲了。他們不太願意等待一年時間來設計自己的客製化房屋。

And if we can give them a home that they can move into in 90-days, five-months, seven-months because it's under construction and still have the opportunity to pick finishes to make it feel like their own and live like their lifestyle and their decorating choices, it's a smart way to go. And we're going to keep at it within that range I talked about, I'd say, of, let's say, 40% to 60%.

如果我們能為他們提供一個可以在 90 天、5 個月或 7 個月內入住的家（因為房子還在建設中），並且他們仍然有機會選擇裝修，讓它感覺像自己的家，按照他們的生活方式和裝飾選擇生活，那麼這是一個明智的選擇。我們將保持在我所說的範圍內，比如說 40% 到 60%。

We're generating great returns with this mix. We're maintaining high margins with this mix. I don't know why we would feel compelled at this moment to change this mix based on how we're doing. And I echo Doug's comments, I think there is a greater percentage of consumers that don't have the patience or the desire to wait and spend the time to design, particularly when they walk into some of our highly curated spec homes and say, wow, this is pretty good. Remember, we do this all day long. An individual does it one, two, three times in their lifetime. So we do it pretty well.

透過這種組合，我們獲得了豐厚的回報。透過這種組合，我們保持了較高的利潤率。我不知道為什麼我們會覺得有必要根據我們的現狀來改變這種組合。我同意 Doug 的評論，我認為有很大一部分消費者沒有耐心或不願意等待並花時間去設計，特別是當他們走進我們精心策劃的一些樣品屋時，會說，哇，這真是太好了。請記住，我們整天都在做這件事。一個人一生中會做一、二、三次這樣的事。所以我們做得很好。

And the other thing, Alan, just to wrap it up, in many of our communities, we have some very special lots, home sites that generate very high lot premiums. We save those for the build-to-order business. We're not going to spec on the $400,000 lot premium lot because we know the buyer of that lot who's going to put a home on that lot, who's going to load it with structural changes and really load it with design studio changes, all of which are very accretive.

另外，艾倫，總結一下，在我們的許多社區中，有一些非常特殊的地段，這些住宅用地會產生非常高的地段溢價。我們將這些保存起來用於按訂單生產業務。我們不會對價值 40 萬美元的優質地塊進行投機，因為我們知道這塊地的買家會在上面建造房屋，會對其進行結構性改造，並真正對設計工作室進行改造，所有這些都是非常有增值的。

And so part of our strategy is more of the vanilla generic lots, not all, but more of them get the spec house and we drive the margin. One of the reasons that margin is north of 30% is because we are saving the better lots for the client who we know will spend more money with the upgrades.

因此，我們的策略的一部分是更多地採用香草通用批次，雖然不是全部，但更多的是採用規格型號，這樣我們就能提高利潤率。利潤率超過 30% 的原因之一是因為我們為客戶保留了更好的地段，我們知道客戶會在升級上花更多的錢。

Michael Rehaut, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的麥可雷豪特。

Marty, it's been a pleasure. Best of luck in the future. Gregg, obviously, congrats and looking forward to working with you more.

馬蒂，我很榮幸。祝你未來好運。格雷格，顯然，我向你表示祝賀，並期待與你有更多的合作。

I met Marty's grand baby Saturday night. And now I fully understand why he's retiring.

星期六晚上我見到了馬蒂的孫子。現在我完全理解他為什麼要退休了。

That's great. That's great. A couple of questions. I guess, first, just on the incentives. It's very helpful, Doug, kind of given the detail that a lot of that increase, 8% versus 7% related to finished spec and maybe that's come down slightly recently. But I think if I'm right, looking back a couple of quarters, your incentives as a percent of sales have increased maybe closer to 200 basis points year-to-date.

那太棒了。那太棒了。有幾個問題。我想，首先，只是關於激勵措施。道格，這非常有幫助，考慮到細節，其中許多增長，8% 對 7% 與成品規格有關，也許最近略有下降。但我認為，如果我是對的，回顧幾個季度，你們的激勵佔銷售額的百分比今年迄今可能已經增加接近 200 個基點。

Obviously, you're expecting a little bit of relief on some build costs, perhaps lot cost inflation would be an ongoing issue on the other side. But it would seem like, again, without pinning it down to '26 guidance, which I know you're not going to give, but is there any reason directionally why we shouldn't expect somewhat of a moderation in '26 versus '25 at this point?

顯然，您期望一些建築成本能得到一點緩解，但另一方面，地塊成本上漲可能是持續存在的問題。但是，似乎再次沒有將其歸結為 26 年的指導，我知道您不會給出，但從方向上看，有什麼理由讓我們不應該期望 26 年相對於 25 年有所緩和？

Again, Mike, we're going to give all the details in December. You're right. It's in the numbers. Our incentive in the third quarter is higher than it was in the second quarter and higher than it was in the first quarter. That 5,500 homes in backlog that has an average price of $1.16 million is high margin, and that is very comforting for us. But I'm not in a position to start giving you some guide on where the gross margin will be in '26.

再說一次，麥克，我們將在 12 月提供所有細節。你說得對。它存在於數字之中。我們第三季的激勵比第二季更高，也比第一季更高。積壓的 5,500 套房屋平均價格為 116 萬美元，利潤率很高，對我們來說非常令人欣慰。但我無法給你關於 26 年毛利率的指導。

We're going to -- we'll address that in December. And frankly, there's a lot of time between now and December, and there's a lot of market in front of us that is going to be evolving. And we talked about our ability to start all these specs and be ready for next summer when people want to move in. We're just going to have to see where this market is through the course of September, October and November before that December call to have a much better idea for you on where things are.

我們將在 12 月解決這個問題。坦白說，從現在到 12 月還有很長的一段時間，我們面前還有很多市場需要發展。我們討論了啟動所有這些規格的能力，並為明年夏天人們入住做好準備。在 12 月召開電話會議之前，我們需要觀察 9 月、10 月和 11 月的市場狀況，以便讓您更了解市場現狀。

Because when you do sit on a lot of spec, current market conditions can really affect the amount of incentive on those specs. As you recall, through the COVID years, Toll was penalized a bit because we didn't have the spec and home prices were going up so rapidly, we sold the house at agreement of sale and the homebuyer got the benefit of home price appreciation during construction.

因為當你確實持有大量規格時，當前的市場狀況確實會影響這些規格的誘因。你還記得，在疫情期間，Toll 受到了一些懲罰，因為我們沒有規格，而且房價上漲得太快，我們按照銷售協議出售了房子，而購房者在施工期間獲得了房價升值的好處。

And those builders that were spec builders got the benefit of the home price appreciation during construction because they didn't sell to the end. That was unusual. That doesn't usually happen. But we'll have to see what takes hold through the fall and stay tuned for December.

而那些投機建築商則獲得了施工期間房價升值的好處，因為他們直到最後才賣出房屋。這很不尋常。這種事通常不會發生。但我們必須觀察秋天將會發生什麼，並繼續關註十二月的情況。

Mike, I'd also point out that our gross margin a year ago for the quarter ended a year ago was adjusted gross margin, 28.8%. And at the end of this year, our fourth quarter, it's projected at 27%. So we've seen a lot of that margin unfortunate erosion already over the course of the past 12-months and the next 3-months in our projections.

麥克，我還要指出的是，我們去年同期的毛利率為調整後的毛利率 28.8%。到今年第四季末，預計這一比例將達到 27%。因此，在我們的預測中，過去 12 個月和未來 3 個月內，我們已經看到利潤率大幅下降。

Right. No, that's definitely fair. And maybe just secondly, Doug, I think you alluded to earlier a little bit lower rates over the last -- maybe by, I want to say, 20 bps, 30 bps, maybe on a broader market level. You talked about June and July being a little better from a sales pace perspective versus March versus May and obviously, the last few weeks.

正確的。不，這絕對公平。其次，道格，我想你之前提到過，過去的利率可能會稍微低一些——我想說，可能是 20 個基點、30 個基點，也許是在更廣泛的市場層面上。您談到從銷售速度的角度來看，六月和七月比三月、五月以及最近幾週要好一些。

I'm wondering if you're trying to maybe parse out the increase in incentives maybe throughout the quarter to -- and maybe that was again to move the finished spec. You also have obviously some seasonality. But I'm wondering between seasonality and maybe a little bit of a higher incentive, how do you think about that, let's say, 20 bps, 30 bps decline in rates impact on demand relative to some of the other factors that perhaps are driving sales pace currently and into the fall?

我想知道您是否試圖分析整個季度激勵措施的增加 - 也許這又是為了推動完成的規範。顯然，你還具有一些季節性。但我想知道，在季節性因素和可能更高的激勵因素之間，您如何看待利率下降 20 個基點、30 個基點對需求的影響，相對於其他一些可能推動當前和秋季銷售速度的因素？

Mike, as I mentioned, we haven't yet seen an immediate impact in sales from the lower rate. It will be coming. With every tick down in rate, you're going to have more buyers that step into the market. It's August. I think we just have to wait a little bit and see how it plays out. And we also have to see what the Fed does, and we have to see what the macroeconomic world looks like.

麥克，正如我所提到的，我們還沒有看到降低利率對銷售的直接影響。它會來的。隨著利率的每次下降，都會有更多的買家進入市場。現在是八月。我認為我們只需要等待一會兒，看看事情會如何發展。我們也要看看聯準會會採取什麼行動，看看宏觀經濟世界是什麼樣子。

There's a lot of moving parts here, and I am encouraged by where it feels like things are headed. But I have no empirical data for you as to what's happened since rates came down, and I'm certainly not going to give you the crystal ball projection on where things go. We'll wait and see. We love our positioning, and I'm feeling a bit better.

這裡有很多活動的部分，我對事情的發展方向感到鼓舞。但我沒有關於利率下降以來發生了什麼的經驗數據，而且我當然不會給你關於事態發展的預測。我們將拭目以待。我們喜歡我們的定位，我感覺好多了。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to management for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議交還給管理階層，請他們發表結束語。

Drew, thank you very much. We appreciate it. Thanks, everyone, for all your great questions and all your interest. Have a wonderful end of the summer, and we'll see you all soon. Thanks. Take care.

德魯，非常感謝你。我們對此表示感謝。謝謝大家提出的所有精彩問題和關注。祝大家有個美好的夏天，我們很快就會再見。謝謝。小心。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。