托爾兄弟 (TOL) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Toll Brothers fourth-quarter fiscal year 2024 conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

早上好，歡迎參加 Toll Brothers 2024 財年第四季電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Douglas Yearley, CEO. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議交給執行長道格拉斯·耶爾利 (Douglas Yearley)。請繼續。

Thank you, Drew. Good morning. Welcome and thank you all for joining us. With me today are Marty Connor, Chief Financial Officer; Rob Parahus, President and Chief Operating Officer; Wendy Marlett, Chief Marketing Officer; and Gregg Ziegler, Senior VP, Treasurer and Head of Investor Relations. As usual, I caution you that many statements on this call are forward-looking based on assumptions about the economy, world events, housing and financial markets, interest rates, the availability of labor and materials, inflation and many other factors beyond our control that could significantly affect future results. Please read our statement on forward-looking information in our earnings release last night and on our website to better understand the risks associated with our forward-looking statements.

謝謝你，德魯。早安.歡迎並感謝大家加入我們。今天和我在一起的有財務長馬蒂康納 (Marty Connor)；羅布‧帕拉胡斯 (Rob Parahus)，總裁兼營運長；溫蒂‧馬萊特，首席行銷長；資深副總裁、財務主管兼投資者關係主管 Gregg Ziegler。像往常一樣，我提醒您，本次電話會議中的許多陳述都是前瞻性的，基於對經濟、世界事件、住房和金融市場、利率、勞動力和材料的供應、通貨膨脹以及我們無法控制的許多其他因素的假設。請閱讀我們昨晚發布的收益報告和我們網站上關於前瞻性資訊的聲明，以更好地了解與我們的前瞻性聲明相關的風險。

I'm incredibly proud of our company's performance in fiscal 2024. We ended the year on a high note with a very strong fourth quarter. In the quarter, we delivered 3,431 homes and generated $3.3 billion of home sales revenues, up 25% in units and 10% in dollars compared to the fourth quarter of 2023. Our adjusted gross margin of 27.9%, beating our guidance by 40 basis points, and our SG&A was 8.3% of home sales revenues or 30 basis points better than guidance.

我對我們公司 2024 財年的業績感到非常自豪。本季度，我們交付了3,431 套房屋，實現了33 億美元的房屋銷售收入，與2023 年第四季度相比，單位數增長了25%，美元增長了10%。 ，比我們的指導高出40 個基點，我們的 SG&A 佔房屋銷售收入的 8.3%，比指導值高 30 個基點。

Both top line and margin and performance contributed to earnings of $475 million or $4.63 per diluted share, up 7% and 13%, respectively compared to last year's fourth quarter. In addition, contracts were up over 30% in both dollars and units in the quarter. For the full year, we generated a record $10.6 billion of home sales revenue, over $2 billion of pretax income, and over $1.5 billion of net income resulting in record earnings of $15.01 per diluted share and a return on beginning equity of 23.1%, the third year in a row we've generated returns above 20%. We delivered 10,813 homes at an average price of approximately $977,000 and with an adjusted gross margin of 28.4%. Our SG&A expense was 9.3% of home sales revenues, and our operating margin was 18.8%.

營收、利潤率和業績均貢獻了 4.75 億美元的收益或稀釋後每股收益 4.63 美元，與去年第四季度相比分別增長了 7% 和 13%。此外，本季合約金額和單位數量均上漲了 30% 以上。全年，我們的房屋銷售收入達到創紀錄的106 億美元，稅前收入超過20 億美元，淨利潤超過15 億美元，稀釋後每股收益達到創紀錄的15.01 美元，期初股本回報率為23.1% ，我們連續第三年創造了超過 20% 的回報率。我們交付了 10,813 套房屋，平均價格約為 977,000 美元，調整後毛利率為 28.4%。我們的 SG&A 費用佔房屋銷售收入的 9.3%，營業利潤率為 18.8%。

In addition, we grew contracts by 27% in both units and dollars and increased community count by 10% and to 408 communities at year-end. These are exceptional full-year and quarterly results, demonstrating the power of our luxury brand and the financial strength of our more affluent buyers. Our strategies of increasing our spec production, widening our geographies, price points, and product lines and focusing on operational and capital efficiency are working. As I mentioned, we finished the year strong with fourth-quarter contracts, up over 30% in both dollars and units. We achieved this in the face of election uncertainty, and mortgage rates have increased by nearly 100 basis points from mid-September to mid-November.

此外，我們的合約數量和金額增加了 27%，社區數量增加了 10%，到年底社區數量達到 408 個。這些都是出色的全年和季度業績，展示了我們奢侈品牌的力量以及更富裕買家的財務實力。我們增加規格產量、擴大地域、價格點和產品線以及注重營運和資本效率的策略正在發揮作用。正如我所提到的，我們第四季的合約表現強勁，無論是美元還是單位數量都增加了 30% 以上。我們在選舉不確定性的情況下實現了這一目標，抵押貸款利率從 9 月中旬到 11 月中旬增加了近 100 個基點。

Since the start of the first quarter of our fiscal 2025 six weeks ago, we have seen strong demand. With the uncertainty of the election behind us and mortgage rates trending in the right direction, we are encouraged by our traffic, deposits, and agreements and are optimistic for the start of the spring selling season in mid-January. Our positive outlook reflects the long-term fundamentals that continue to support the market for new homes generally and Toll Brothers in particular. These include favorable demographics driven by millennials, many of whom are buying their first home later in life when they have higher incomes and accumulated wealth and baby boomers who are moving in retirement. Due primarily to the well-known affordability issues in this country, the average age and wealth of a home buyer has increased.

自六週前 2025 財年第一季開始以來，我們看到了強勁的需求。隨著選舉的不確定性過去以及抵押貸款利率朝著正確的方向發展，我們對我們的流量、存款和協議感到鼓舞，並對一月中旬春季銷售季節的開始感到樂觀。我們的樂觀前景反映了長期基本面持續支持新房市場，尤其是 Toll Brothers 市場。其中包括由千禧世代推動的有利人口統計數據，他們中的許多人在晚年收入更高、累積財富時購買第一套住房，以及即將退休的嬰兒潮世代。主要由於該國眾所周知的負擔能力問題，購屋者的平均年齡和財富有所增加。

According to data published by the National Association of Realtors last month, the median age of a first-time homebuyer is at an all-time high of 38 years old and the median age of all buyers in the market is now 56 years old. In addition, first-time buyers comprise just 24% of the market over the past year, the lowest level in over 40 years. This means the vast majority of buyers in the market are move up or move down. These trends play right into our wheelhouse. Approximately 28% of our business is selling to older, more affluent first-time buyers, and the balance is catering to move up and move down buyers who are financially secure and have significant equity in their existing homes. In fact, according to the Federal Reserve data, 73% of the value of existing homes today is equity.

根據全國房地產經紀人協會上個月公佈的數據，首次購屋者的中位數年齡達到38歲，創下歷史新高，目前市場上所有購屋者的中位數年齡為56歲。此外，去年首次購屋者僅佔市場的 24%，為 40 多年來的最低水準。這意味著市場上絕大多數買家正在向上或向下移動。這些趨勢正好影響我們的駕駛艙。我們大約 28% 的業務是賣給年齡較大、更富裕的首次購房者，其餘的則用於迎合那些經濟上有保障且在現有房屋中擁有大量資產的購房者的升遷和降遷。事實上，根據聯準會的數據，當今現有房屋價值的 73% 是權益。

In addition, the resale market, our primary competition, continues to be locked up by persistently high rates with over half of outstanding mortgages under 4%. With limited inventory driving resale prices higher, the new home premium, which averaged just 3% this year, is the lowest premium it has been in decades. New homes are available and a great deal compared to resales. The median age of an existing home in the US is now over 40 years old, with well over half of them built before 1980, making new homes very attractive.

此外，我們的主要競爭轉售市場繼續受到持續高利率的困擾，超過一半的未償抵押貸款利率低於 4%。由於庫存有限導致轉售價格上漲，今年新屋溢價平均僅 3%，是數十年來的最低溢價。與轉售相比，新房子可供出售且價格優惠。目前美國現有房屋的中位數年齡已超過 40 年，其中超過一半建於 1980 年之前，這使得新房子非常有吸引力。

They are built better, require less maintenance, are less expensive to ensure, are more energy efficient, and, most importantly, are designed architecturally to appeal to today's buyers. Many are also part of communities that have sought-after amenities. It is simply impossible or prohibitively expensive to remodel most existing homes with today's new home features, making the value proposition for buying new even more compelling. While we recognize that affordability is a broad market issue, our more affluent buyer is less impacted by it.

它們建造得更好，需要更少的維護，確保成本更低，更節能，最重要的是，其建築設計能夠吸引當今的買家。許多人也屬於擁有廣受歡迎的便利設施的社區。用當今的新家居功能改造大多數現有房屋根本不可能或過於昂貴，這使得購買新房的價值主張更加引人注目。雖然我們認識到負擔能力是一個廣泛的市場問題，但我們較富裕的買家受其影響較小。

In our fourth quarter, approximately 28% of our buyers paid all cash, consistent with the trend over recent quarters and significantly above our long-term average of approximately 20%. The loan-to-value ratio for our buyers who took a mortgage in the fourth quarter remained at approximately 69%. So for the 72% of our buyers who took a mortgage, on average, they put down 31%. Our cancellation rate as a percentage of backlog remained low at 2.5% in the fourth quarter. Our industry low cancellation rate is due to the significant upfront down payments our buyers make as well as the emotional attachment they form as they personalize their homes with us at our design studios.

在第四季度，大約 28% 的買家支付了全部現金，這與最近幾季的趨勢一致，並且顯著高於我們約 20% 的長期平均值。第四季抵押貸款買家的貸款成數維持在 69% 左右。因此，對於 72% 的抵押貸款買家來說，他們平均首付為 31%。第四季度，我們的取消率佔積壓訂單的百分比仍然很低，為 2.5%。我們行業中較低的取消率是由於我們的買家支付了大量的預付款，以及他們在我們的設計工作室與我們一起個性化他們的房屋時形成的情感依戀。

In the fourth quarter, structural options, design studio finishes, and lot premiums averaged $203,000 or 25% of the average base sales price. For the year, our design studios generated over $1 billion in sales and provided a great source of accretive, high-margin revenue for us. Each of these metrics, our high proportion of all cash buyers, low LTV ratios, low cancellation rates, and a substantial amount that our buyers spend on lot premiums and upgrades at our design studios, highlight the financial strength of our customer base. I'd also point out that we are benefiting from the greatest generational wealth transfer in history as many parents are looking to help their kids with down payments.

第四季度，結構選擇、設計工作室裝修和地塊溢價平均為 203,000 美元，即平均基本銷售價格的 25%。今年，我們的設計工作室創造了超過 10 億美元的銷售額，為我們提供了巨大的增值、高利潤收入來源。這些指標中的每一個，我們的現金買家比例高，LTV比率低，取消率低，以及我們的買家在我們的設計工作室的地塊溢價和升級上花費的大量資金，都凸顯了我們客戶群的財務實力。我還想指出，我們正受益於歷史上最大的代際財富轉移，因為許多父母都希望幫助他們的孩子支付首付。

Turning back to our fourth quarter. Despite the sharp increase in rates in the second half of the quarter, we maintained a steady cadence of orders from month to month. Approximately 30% of sales occurred in August with 35% of sales in each of September and October. On a per community basis, we sold at a pace of 2.2 homes per month, up meaningfully from the 1.9 pace sold in last year's fourth quarter. With our business now split roughly 50-50 between build-to-order and spec homes, we are more focused than ever on ROE, turning inventory and appropriately balancing pace and price.

回到我們的第四季。儘管第二季下半年費率急劇上升，但我們每個月的訂單節奏都保持穩定。大約 30% 的銷售額發生在 8 月，其中 35% 的銷售額發生在 9 月和 10 月。以每個社區計算，我們每月銷售 2.2 套房屋，比去年第四季的 1.9 套房屋銷售速度顯著提高。現在，我們的業務在按訂單建造和規格住宅之間的比例約為 50-50，因此我們比以往任何時候都更加關注 ROE、庫存週轉以及適當平衡節奏和價格。

As a result, when the market softened a bit in September and October in response to the spike in mortgage rates and the uncertainty leading up the election, we modestly lowered net price through incentive increases by an average of $12,000. As a result, our incentives in the fourth quarter were approximately 6.7% of the average sales price, slightly above our recent averages of between 5% and 6%. This small increase was primarily on finished spec homes, many of which are expected to be delivered in our first quarter. With the market improving, we have recently begun to decrease incentives, and we are optimistic that we will be able to further reduce incentives and also increase base prices with the start of the spring season in January. We are very comfortable with our inventory of spec homes per community and the gross margin spread between our spec and build-to-order homes.

因此，當市場在 9 月和 10 月因抵押貸款利率飆升和選舉前的不確定性而略有疲軟時，我們透過激勵措施將淨價平均降低了 12,000 美元。因此，我們第四季度的激勵措施約為平均銷售價格的 6.7%，略高於近期 5% 至 6% 的平均水平。這一小幅成長主要是針對成品規格住宅，其中許多預計將在第一季交付。隨著市場的改善，我們最近開始減少激勵措施，我們樂觀地認為，隨著 1 月春季的開始，我們將能夠進一步減少激勵措施並提高基本價格。我們對每個社區的規格住宅庫存以及規格住宅和按訂單建造的毛利率差感到非常滿意。

Our spec strategy has allowed us to grow EPS faster, increase our ROE, and increase our operating margin by leveraging overhead. We believe this is the right strategy to continue driving attractive returns well into the future.

我們的規格策略使我們能夠更快地成長每股收益，提高股本回報率，並透過利用管理費用來提高我們的營業利潤率。我們相信，這是在未來繼續推動有吸引力的回報的正確策略。

Turning to land. At fiscal year-end, we owned or controlled approximately 74,700 lots, 55% of which were optioned. Excluding the 5,996 lots committed to home buyers in our backlog, our optioned land represented 60% of lots. We continue to target an overall mix, including backlog of 60% optioned and 40% owned over the longer term. We are pleased to have made solid progress towards this goal in this quarter.

轉向陸地。截至本財年末，我們擁有或控制約 74,700 塊土地，其中 55% 為選擇權。不包括我們積壓中向購屋者承諾的 5,996 塊地塊，我們選擇的土地佔全部地塊的 60%。我們繼續以整體組合為目標，包括長期儲備 60% 的選擇權和 40% 的所有權。我們很高興本季在實現這一目標方面取得了堅實進展。

We are selective and disciplined in our approach to buying land. We assess all land deals, whether they involve new land opportunities or takedowns under existing options, using underwriting standards focused on both margins and returns. This approach and our overall focus on capital efficiency has helped drive our ROE over 20% for the past three years.

我們在購買土地時是有選擇性和嚴格的。我們使用注重利潤和回報的承保標準來評估所有土地交易，無論它們涉及新的土地機會還是現有選項下的收購。這種方法以及我們對資本效率的整體關注幫助我們在過去三年中將 ROE 提高了 20% 以上。

In the fourth quarter, we purchased $201 million of our common stock, bringing our full-year repurchases to $628 million at an average price of $127.79 per share. During fiscal 2024, we repurchased nearly 5% of our shares outstanding at the beginning of the year. We have now bought back half the company since 2016. We also paid $93 million in dividends. Buybacks and dividends will remain an important part of our capital allocation priorities well into the future.

第四季度，我們購買了 2.01 億美元的普通股，使全年回購金額達到 6.28 億美元，平均價格為每股 127.79 美元。 2024 財年，我們回購了年初近 5% 的已發行股票。自 2016 年以來，我們已經回購了公司一半的股份。回購和股利仍將是我們未來資本配置優先事項的重要組成部分。

For fiscal 2025, we have budgeted another $500 million of share repurchases, which we expect will be weighted to the back end of the year, consistent with our greater cash flow generation.

對於 2025 財年，我們也為股票回購制定了 5 億美元的預算，預計將在今年年底進行加權，這與我們更大的現金流產生保持一致。

With that, I'll turn it over to Marty.

有了這個，我會把它交給馬蒂。

Thanks, Doug. As Doug mentioned, we are very pleased with our fourth quarter and full-year results. Our revenue, net income, and earnings per share were all full-year records.

謝謝，道格。正如道格所提到的，我們對第四季和全年的業績非常滿意。我們的營收、淨利和每股盈餘均創下全年記錄。

In fiscal year 2024's fourth quarter, we delivered 3,431 homes and generated home sales revenues of $3.26 billion, up 24.5% homes and 10.4% in dollars from one year ago. The average price of homes delivered was down 11.3% to approximately $950,000. These results are consistent with our multiyear strategy of widening our geographies and price points, expanding our product lines, and increasing our supply of spec homes. Fourth-quarter net income was $475.4 million or $4.63 per diluted share compared to $445.5 million and $4.11 per diluted share one year ago.

2024 財年第四季度，我們交付了 3,431 套房屋，房屋銷售收入達 32.6 億美元，房屋數量比一年前增長了 24.5%，美元增長了 10.4%。交付房屋的平均價格下降了 11.3%，至約 95 萬美元。這些結果與我們擴大地域和價格點、擴大產品線以及增加規格住宅供應的多年策略是一致的。第四季淨利為 4.754 億美元，即稀釋後每股收益 4.63 美元，而一年前為 4.455 億美元，稀釋後每股收益為 4.11 美元。

For the full year, we delivered 10,813 homes, the most in our history, and generated record home sales revenues of $10.6 billion. Full-year net income was $1.57 billion and $15.01 per diluted share. As a reminder, net income includes approximately $124 million or $1.19 per share of gains related to a parcel of land that we sold in the second quarter. Excluding this gain, net income would have been $1.45 billion or $13.82. We signed 2,658 net contracts in the fourth quarter for $2.7 billion of approximately 30% units and 32% in dollars.

全年，我們交付了 10,813 套房屋，創歷史最高紀錄，房屋銷售收入達到創紀錄的 106 億美元。全年淨利潤為 15.7 億美元，稀釋後每股收益為 15.01 美元。提醒一下，淨利潤包括大約 1.24 億美元或每股 1.19 美元的與我們在第二季度出售的一塊土地相關的收益。排除此收益，淨利潤將為 14.5 億美元或 13.82 美元。第四季度，我們簽署了 2,658 份淨合同，價值 27 億美元，其中約 30% 為單位，32% 為美元。

The average price of contracts signed in the quarter was approximately $1 million, which was roughly flat to last year's fourth quarter. At year-end, our backlog stood at $6.5 billion and nearly 6,000 homes. As Doug mentioned, our cancellation rate as a percentage of backlog was just 2.5% in the fourth quarter, consistent with our long-term average of 2.3%. Our fourth quarter adjusted gross margin and 27.9% was 40 basis points better than guidance, which was due primarily to mix and cost control. We also benefited from reduced cycle times and greater stability in our building costs, which have been impacted by inflation of recent years.

本季簽訂的合約平均價格約為100萬美元，與去年第四季大致持平。截至年底，我們的積壓訂單已達 65 億美元，已交付近 6,000 套房屋。正如 Doug 所提到的，第四季我們的取消率佔積壓訂單的百分比僅為 2.5%，與我們 2.3% 的長期平均值一致。我們第四季的調整後毛利率為 27.9%，比指導值高 40 個基點，主要歸功於組合和成本控制。我們也受益於週期時間的縮短和建築成本的更大穩定性，這些成本受到近年來通貨膨脹的影響。

This past year, we were generally able to keep these building costs flat. SG&A as a percentage of home sales revenues was 8.3% in the quarter, which was essentially flat compared to 8.2% in the same quarter one year ago. and this was 30 basis points better than we had projected. The outperformance relative to guidance was primarily due to greater fixed cost leverage from higher-than-projected revenue. As we continue to focus on ways to become more efficient, we are seeing the benefits flow through our results.

去年，我們總體上能夠保持這些建築成本不變。本季銷售、管理及行政費用 (SG&A) 佔房屋銷售收入的百分比為 8.3%，與一年前同一季度的 8.2% 基本持平。這比我們的預期好 30 個基點。相對於指引的表現優於預期主要是由於高於預期的收入帶來了更大的固定成本槓桿。隨著我們繼續專注於提高效率的方法，我們看到了我們的成果所帶來的好處。

In fact, our G&A dollar spend grew only 1.7% year over year despite inflation, 10% community count growth, and double-digit percentage growth in both deliveries and contracts. Joint venture, land sales, and other income was $44 million in the fourth quarter compared to $36 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2023 and our guidance of $47 million. Joint venture, land sales, and other income in Q4 2024, primarily related to land sale gains as well as contributions from our title and mortgage business and included $6.6 million of write-offs related to Apartment Living joint ventures and another $2.2 million associated with abandoned projects.

事實上，儘管通貨膨脹、社區數量增長了 10%、交付量和合約都實現了兩位數百分比增長，但我們的 G&A 美元支出同比僅增長了 1.7%。第四季的合資企業、土地銷售和其他收入為 4,400 萬美元，而 2023 財年第四季為 3,600 萬美元，我們的指引為 4,700 萬美元。 2024 年第四季的合資企業、土地銷售和其他收入，主要與土地銷售收益以及我們的產權和抵押貸款業務的貢獻有關，包括與公寓生活合資企業相關的660 萬美元沖銷，以及與廢棄項目相關的另外220 萬美元項目。

Write-offs included in home sale cost of revenues totaled $24.1 million in the quarter compared to $8.3 million in the prior-year period. There were no land sale write-offs in the fourth quarter of 2024 versus $12.9 million in Q4 2023. We continued to generate strong cash flow in fiscal 2024 with approximately $1 billion of cash flow from operations. We expect to generate a similar amount this year. We ended the fiscal year with over $3.1 billion of liquidity, including $1.3 billion of cash and $1.8 billion available under our revolving bank credit facility.

本季房屋銷售收入成本中的沖銷總額為 2,410 萬美元，而去年同期為 830 萬美元。 2024 年第四季沒有土地出售註銷，而 2023 年第四季為 1,290 萬美元。我們預計今年將產生類似的金額。在本財年結束時，我們擁有超過 31 億美元的流動資金，其中包括 13 億美元現金和循環銀行信貸安排下的 18 億美元可用資金。

In fiscal year 2024, we invested $2.8 billion in land acquisition and development. We also returned $716 million to shareholders through share repos and dividends. Our net debt to capital ratio was approximately 15% at fiscal year-end, and we have no significant debt maturities until early fiscal 2026. Our balance sheet is in great shape.

2024財年，我們在土地收購和開發方面投資了28億美元。我們也透過股票回購和股利向股東返還 7.16 億美元。截至財年末，我們的淨債務與資本比率約為 15%，並且在 2026 財年年初之前我們沒有重大債務到期。

Turning to our guidance. We are projecting first-quarter deliveries of 1,900 to 2,100 homes with an average price between $925,000 and $945,000. Consistent with normal seasonal pattern, first quarter deliveries are expected to be the low point of the year, with deliveries for the full fiscal year weighted to the second half. For full year 2025, we are projecting new home deliveries of between 11,200 and 11,600 homes, with an average price between $945,000 and $965,000. We expect our adjusted gross margin in the first quarter of fiscal 2025 to be 26.25% of home sales revenues and for the full year to be approximately 27.25%. Our projected gross margin for Q1 primarily reflects the impact of mix and the increased incentives offered in our fourth quarter to move finished spec inventory and to counter softness in the market resulting from elect certainty and the spike in mortgage rates.

轉向我們的指導。我們預計第一季將交付 1,900 至 2,100 套房屋，平均價格在 925,000 美元至 945,000 美元之間。與正常的季節性模式一致，第一季的交付量預計將是全年的最低點，整個財年的交付量將加權到下半年。 2025 年全年，我們預計新房交付量將在 11,200 至 11,600 套之間，平均價格在 945,000 美元至 965,000 美元之間。我們預計 2025 財年第一季調整後毛利率將佔房屋銷售收入的 26.25%，全年約為 27.25%。我們預計第一季的毛利率主要反映了混合的影響以及第四季度為轉移成品規格庫存並應對因選舉確定性和抵押貸款利率飆升而導致的市場疲軟所提供的更多激勵措施。

We view our Q1 adjusted gross margin as a bit of an anomaly from both a mix and incentives perspective and fully expect it will be the low point of the year. I wouldn't read too much into it. We are very comfortable with our full year guide of 27.25% and implying approximately 27.5% for the balance of the year. We expect interest in cost of sales to be approximately 1.2% of home sales revenues in the first quarter and for the full year. We project first quarter SG&A as a percentage of home sales revenues to be approximately 12.7%, reflecting lower fixed cost leverage as the first quarter tends to be our lowest revenue quarter.

從組合和激勵的角度來看，我們認為第一季調整後的毛利率有點​​反常，並完全預期這將是今年的最低點。我不會對此進行太多解讀。我們對 27.25% 的全年指導感到非常滿意，這意味著今年剩餘時間約為 27.5%。我們預計第一季和全年銷售成本利息將佔房屋銷售收入的 1.2% 左右。我們預計第一季的 SG&A 佔房屋銷售收入的百分比約為 12.7%，這反映出固定成本槓桿較低，因為第一季往往是我們收入最低的季度。

Also included in first quarter SG&A is about $15 million of our annual accelerated stock compensation expense that does not recur in the remainder of the year. For the full year, we project SG&A as a percentage of home sales revenues to be generally consistent with 2024 and in the range of 9.4% to 9.5%. Other income, income from unconsolidated entities and land sales gross profit is expected to be $33 million in the first quarter and $110 million for the full year and includes the projected sale of several stabilized apartment communities. We project the first quarter and full year tax rate of approximately 22% and 25.5% respectively. We expect our first-quarter tax rate to benefit from higher deductions related to previously granted equity awards that we do not project to recur for the balance of the year.

第一季的 SG&A 還包括約 1500 萬美元的年度加速股票補償費用，該費用在今年剩餘時間內不會重複發生。對於全年，我們預計 SG&A 佔房屋銷售收入的百分比與 2024 年基本一致，介於 9.4% 至 9.5% 之間。其他收入、來自未合併實體的收入和土地銷售毛利預計第一季為 3,300 萬美元，全年為 1.1 億美元，其中包括幾個穩定公寓社區的預計銷售。我們預計第一季和全年稅率分別約為22%和25.5%。我們預計第一季的稅率將受益於與先前授予的股權獎勵相關的更高扣除額，而我們預計今年剩餘時間不會再出現這些獎勵。

Our weighted average share count is expected to be approximately 102 million for the first quarter and 105 million for the full year. This assumes we repurchased a targeted $500 million in common stock for the year with most of that occurring later in the year, aligned with our anticipated higher cash flows. Based on land we currently own or control, we expect to grow community count by 8% to 10% and by the end of fiscal 2025 and are targeting 440 to 450 communities. With that, I'll turn it back to Doug.

我們的加權平均股票數量預計第一季約為 1.02 億股，全年約為 1.05 億股。假設我們今年回購了 5 億美元的普通股，其中大部分發生在今年晚些時候，這與我們預期的較高現金流量一致。根據我們目前擁有或控制的土地，我們預計到 2025 財年底，社區數量將增加 8% 至 10%，目標是 440 至 450 個社區。有了這個，我會把它轉回給道格。

Thank you, Marty. Before we open it up to questions, I'd like to thank the entire Toll Brothers team for staying focused on our customers and consistently executing on our core strategies. Most importantly, it's helped position the company for continued success in 2025 and beyond. For that, I am truly grateful.

謝謝你，馬蒂。在我們提出問題之前，我要感謝整個 Toll Brothers 團隊始終專注於我們的客戶並始終如一地執行我們的核心策略。最重要的是，它有助於公司在 2025 年及以後繼續取得成功。對此，我真的很感激。

Drew, let's open it up for questions.

德魯，讓我們開始提問吧。

(Operator Instructions) Stephen Kim, Evercore ISI.

（操作員說明）Stephen Kim，Evercore ISI。

Appreciate all the color. Certainly, I think the results in the quarter were strong all on the order front. Your ASP was also very strong. You've talked about the guidance for the first quarter though and for the full year that are a little lower than, I think, we and many others were expecting for the full year as well as the quarter. I wanted to talk about the operating margin.

欣賞所有的顏色。當然，我認為本季在訂單方面的業績都很強勁。你們的ASP也很強。您談到了第一季和全年的指導，我認為，這略低於我們和許多其他人對全年和本季的預期。我想談談營業利益率。

If you just kind of cut through the growth in this (inaudible) and just talk about the operating margin. It seems like you're guiding to something in the neighborhood of like sub-17%. You've done 18% in each of the last two years basically. I'm curious if you can talk about what sort of exogenous factors or factors that are out of your control? Are you embedding in your assumptions for 2025 in terms of the market outlook?

如果你只是削減這方面的成長（聽不清楚）並只談論營業利潤率。看起來你正在引導大約 17% 以下的東西。基本上過去兩年你每年都完成了 18%。我很好奇您能否談談哪些外在因素或您無法控制的因素？您是否將 2025 年的市場前景納入您的假設中？

I'm thinking things like can you give us a sense for what you're looking for mortgage rates. Can you give us a sense for if you're anticipating any disruptions from, let's say, Trump's immigration policies and things like that?

我在想，你能否讓我們了解一下你所尋找的抵押貸款利率。您能否告訴我們，您是否預期川普的移民政策等會造成任何干擾？

That's a big one. A lot of parts to that question. We're pleased that mortgage rates have begun to stabilize and even come down modestly. We, in the industry, were obviously disappointed that from mid-September through mid-November, rates went up as the spend was lower in short-term rates.

那是一件大事。這個問題有很多部分。我們很高興抵押貸款利率已經開始穩定，甚至小幅下降。我們業內人士顯然感到失望的是，從 9 月中旬到 11 月中旬，由於短期利率支出較低，利率上升。

But I think we are hopeful and have some good reason to be hopeful that rates will either stay where they are or more likely moderate a bit. They have been stubbornly high. We have sold well, as we talked about in the fourth quarter when the rates were elevated, and that really goes to all the stats we gave you about the percentage of cash buyers and the LTV ratios and the affluent makeup of our buyer group. We don't need lower rates to have success in this company. We just proved it in the last quarter.

但我認為我們充滿希望，並且有充分的理由希望利率要么保持在現有水平，要么更有可能稍微放緩。他們一直居高不下。正如我們在第四季度利率上漲時所討論的那樣，我們的銷售情況很好，這確實適用於我們向您提供的有關現金買家百分比、LTV 比率以及買家群體富裕構成的所有統計數據。我們不需要較低的利率就能在這家公司取得成功。我們剛剛在上個季度證明了這一點。

But we are optimistic that 2025 will be a year where, like I said, rates will either stay where they are or come down somewhat. As I mentioned, we've already begun to cut back on the incentives that were a little bit elevated in the fourth quarter. And as we traditionally as we open the spring season, we tend to have a nationwide price increase -- base price increase off the price sheet. And so when you combine that with a reduction in incentives, we -- and we think that business plan is in place. We have optimism for next year.

但我們樂觀地認為，正如我所說，2025 年利率要么保持不變，要么有所下降。正如我所提到的，我們已經開始削減第四季度略有提高的激勵措施。傳統上，當春季開始時，我們往往會在全國範圍內提價——價目表上的基本價格上漲。因此，當你將其與激勵措施的減少結合起來時，我們認為業務計劃已經到位。我們對明年持樂觀態度。

As to your question about disruptions, we are not anticipating disruptions. Obviously, we're keeping a close eye on policy. We are encouraged by a lot of the new policy that we think will be coming our way. And so it's business as usual. We are built to succeed in this type of a market, with our geographic mix, our product diversity, our price range, our spec business and, most importantly, the affluent nature of our client.

至於你關於中斷的問題，我們預計不會中斷。顯然，我們正在密切關注政策。我們認為即將到來的許多新政策令我們感到鼓舞。所以一切照常進行。我們致力於在此類市場中取得成功，憑藉我們的地理組合、產品多樣性、價格範圍、規格業務，以及最重要的是我們客戶的富裕程度。

Got you. I appreciate that color. I didn't catch a cash flow guide for 2025. I was wondering if you could give us that. And is it also -- would you -- I think I asked you this question maybe a quarter or two ago about what you think the long-term sustainable operating margin range might be?

明白你了。我很欣賞那種顏色。我沒有收到 2025 年現金流指南。我想我大概在一、兩個季度前就問過您這個問題，您認為長期可持續的營業利潤率範圍可能是多少？

And I think at that time, you had mentioned something in the neighborhood of 17%, 18% or 7.5%. Is that something that you still believe that general range is where you could sustain your operating margin longer term, you think?

我想當時你提到了 17%、18% 或 7.5% 左右的情況。您認為，您是否仍然認為整體範圍是您可以長期維持營業利潤率的地方？

Stephen, we are comfortable with the 17% to 18% range of our operating margin. And as it relates to the cash flow, we did $1 billion approximately in 2024, and we project a similar amount in 2025.

史蒂芬，我們對 17% 到 18% 的營業利潤率感到滿意。由於與現金流相關，我們在 2024 年的支出約為 10 億美元，我們預計 2025 年的支出也將類似。

John Lovallo, UBS.

約翰‧洛瓦洛，瑞銀集團。

I'm going to dovetail off of Steve here for a moment. With the cash flow projected to be about the same year-over-year, why is the intent to buy back less stock, the $500 million versus the $628 million that you guys did in fiscal year '24?

我要暫時跟史蒂夫聊聊。由於現金流量預計與去年同期大致相同，為什麼回購股票的意圖減少了 5 億美元，而你們在 24 財年回購的股票為 6.28 億美元？

John, it's a guide. Last year, we started the year at $400 million guide, and we actually bought over $600 million. But as we enter the year and we look at the growth of our business and the land we're buying and the roads we're putting in and the cash flow we're generating. At this moment in time, we are comfortable at that number. History repeats itself, we're going to do more.

約翰，這是一個指南。去年，我們年初的指導價為 4 億美元，實際上我們買了超過 6 億美元。但當我們進入這一年時，我們會關注我們業務的成長、我們購買的土地、我們正在建造的道路以及我們正在產生的現金流。目前，我們對這個數字感到滿意。歷史會重演，我們將做得更多。

But we're not at this point in time, prepared to guide to what we did last year. But as I think we've proven to you that opportunity may be out there and we would take advantage of it.

但我們目前還沒有準備好指導我們去年所做的事情。但我認為我們已經向你們證明了機會可能就在那裡，我們會利用它。

Yes. That makes sense. And then on the first quarter gross margin, I think you guys explained that pretty well with mix and higher incentives on finished specs that are going to deliver in the first quarter. But I guess the question is $27.5 million that we would need through the remainder of the year. Is there a cadence that we should think about for that does it assume that interest rates actually come down from here?

是的。這是有道理的。然後，關於第一季的毛利率，我認為你們很好地解釋了這一點，對第一季度交付的成品規格進行了混合和更高的激勵。但我想問題是我們今年剩餘時間需要 2750 萬美元。我們是否應該考慮一種節奏，即假設利率實際上會從現在開始下降？

Or could you achieve it at rates that are at the same level or potentially a tad higher, if that's the way things went?

或者，如果情況確實如此，您能否以相同水平或可能更高的速度實現這一目標？

So I'll start, Marty will finish. It does not assume rates come down. It does not assume an improving market. I think we set up for you in our prepared comments, the opportunity in an improving market to do better, but it's not our company style to build that into guidance. And so that's how we approach the year.

所以我來開始，馬蒂來完成。它並不假設利率會下降。它並不假設市場正在改善。我認為我們在準備好的評論中為您提供了在不斷改善的市場中做得更好的機會，但這不是我們公司的風格，將其納入指導。這就是我們迎接這一年的方式。

Yes. And as it relates to the margin cadence, I think on average through the last quarter without much deviation from the last three quarters without much deviation from that is a good set of assumptions to us.

是的。由於它與保證金節奏相關，我認為上個季度的平均水平與過去三個季度沒有太大偏差，對我們來說這是一組很好的假設。

Trevor Allinson, Wolfe Research.

特雷弗·阿林森，沃爾夫研究中心。

First question, I want to visit some of your positive demand commentary. You mentioned demand over the last 6 weeks has been pretty strong. Can you provide any additional color around that now that we're post election, perhaps on traffic rates or absorption paces? And then any differences that you guys are seeing between your different consumer segments.

第一個問題，我想看看你們的一些正面的需求評論。您提到過去 6 週的需求非常強勁。既然我們已經選舉完畢，您能否提供任何其他信息，也許是關於流量率或吸收速度？然後是你們在不同消費族群之間看到的差異。

Sure. So traditionally, if you look back in time with Toll Brothers, the first quarter is, on average, down about 10% from fourth quarter in terms of sales, and we are trending better than that. We are projecting now halfway through the quarter about two contracts per community per month. So if you do the math off of that, you'll be able to figure it out. Actually, the guys are going to do it for me right now.

當然。因此，傳統上，如果你回顧 Toll Brothers 的歷史，第一季的銷售額平均比第四季下降約 10%，而我們的趨勢比這更好。我們現在預計在本季中段每個社區每月將簽訂兩份合約。因此，如果你對此進行數學計算，你就能找到答案。事實上，夥計們現在就會為我做這件事。

So it's going to -- it's in the 2,400 to 2,500 range when you think (inaudible) community times the --

所以當你認為（聽不清楚）社區乘以 - 時，它會在 2,400 到 2,500 範圍內 -

400 (inaudible).

400（聽不清楚）。

(inaudible) plus or minus communities. So there we have it. And that is better than traditional trends of how Q1 compares to Q4.

（聽不清楚）加上或減去社區。所以我們就有了。這比第一季與第四季相比的傳統趨勢要好。

Okay. That's helpful and very encouraging. And then the second question is on your lot supply. You mentioned your release having all the lots you need to grow in 2026. As we look at your lot supply currently on a four-year supply basis, it seems like it's down a bit from where it's been in the last few years.

好的。這很有幫助，也非常令人鼓舞。第二個問題是關於你們的批次供應。您提到您的發布擁有 2026 年種植所需的所有批次。

So the question is, as you stand here today, given your outlook for 2025, demand is still healthy for your product. Do you need to accelerate the loss you have under control from here?

所以問題是，當您今天站在這裡時，考慮到您對 2025 年的展望，您的產品需求仍然健康。您是否需要從這裡加速控制損失？

No, I'm very proud of our land buying. Very happy with the option versus owned momentum that is taking place to be more capital efficient. We have become more creative in how we buy land, tie it up now, pay for it later. Big deals do joint ventures with other builder friends or with Wall Street money, more and more land banking. Our goal is to have 1.5 to 2 years max, owned land and net of backlog -- net of backlog.

不，我對我們購買的土地感到非常自豪。對於正在發生的提高資本效率的選擇權與自有動力感到非常滿意。我們在購買土地、現在捆綁、以後付款的方式上變得更有創意。大型交易會與其他建築商朋友或華爾街的資金、越來越多的土地儲備建立合資企業。我們的目標是擁有最多 1.5 至 2 年的自有土地和淨積壓 - 淨積壓。

Thank you, Greg.

謝謝你，格雷格。

And we're making progress. We're not there yet, but we're going to continue to move in that direction. So our deal flow is strong. Our underwriting is very conservative. We demand a high margin.

我們正在取得進展。我們還沒有達到那個目標，但我們將繼續朝這個方向前進。所以我們的交易流很強勁。我們的承保非常保守。我們要求高利潤。

We demand high returns. We miss deals that get too skinny, and we're okay with that. We have a great finance group that is very creative about how we can structure deals to keep them controlled longer owned for a shorter period of time. And so the land business is in great shape. And I'm very comfortable and I'm really proud that we can grow this company with 10% community count the last two years in the market we're in.

我們要求高回報。我們會錯過那些太薄弱的交易，但我們對此並不介意。我們有一個偉大的財務團隊，他們在如何建立交易方面非常有創意，以在更短的時間內保持對它們的長期控制和擁有。因此，土地業務狀況良好。我感到非常放心，我真的很自豪我們能夠在過去兩年裡在我們所在的市場上以 10% 的社區數量發展這家公司。

So we're in great shape. And one additional advertisement here. Remember, with the geographies we're in 24 states, 60 markets with how we have widened the price point from $300,000 to over $5 million, how we have widened our product lines with the third first time and the 30% first time and the balance move up and move down, we have the widest of everything in the industry and therefore the most opportunity to grow. And by the way, at our price point, that affluent buyer can absorb some of these bumps we've seen with higher rates with a little bit of consumer sentiment being off now and again. And so the business model is in great shape, and I'm very excited about where we're at.

所以我們的狀態很好。這裡還有一則附加廣告。請記住，我們分佈在 24 個州、60 個市場，我們如何將價格點從 30 萬美元擴大到超過 500 萬美元，我們如何透過第三次首次和 30% 首次以及其餘部分擴大我們的產品線無論向上或向下，我們擁有業界最廣泛的一切，因此也擁有最多的成長機會。順便說一句，在我們的價格點上，富裕的買家可以承受我們在更高的利率下看到的一些衝擊，但消費者信心會不時下降。因此，商業模式狀況良好，我對我們所處的位置感到非常興奮。

Mike Dahl, RBC Capital Markets.

麥克·達爾，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。

Actually Chris Kalata for Mike. Just going back to your incentive comments, you guys saw a step up in incentives this quarter. You're expecting that to moderate down modestly. Could you just help quantify what you're expecting incentive to kind of settle out as we enter the new year? And then given your expectation of kind of a nationwide price increase and more moderate incentive load.

實際上克里斯·卡拉塔是麥克的。回到你們的激勵評論，你們看到本季激勵措施有所加強。您預計這種情況會適度下降。當我們進入新的一年時，您能幫忙量化您期望的激勵措施嗎？然後考慮到您對全國範圍內價格上漲和更溫和的激勵負擔的期望。

I mean, what's your confidence that you'll be able to maintain that two per month absorption trend that you guys called out into 1Q and then the rest of this year?

我的意思是，您對能夠維持第一季和今年剩餘時間中每月兩次吸收趨勢的信心有多大？

Yes. We think we're going to be settling in, in the 55,000 range as the spring season approaches.

是的。我們認為，隨著春季的臨近，我們將穩定在 55,000 人的範圍內。

That's 5% to 6% of selling price.

這是售價的 5% 到 6%。

Right, which is where we've been and we've already clawed back, as I said, a bit of the increases we saw in the fall. So that's where it is.

是的，這就是我們一直以來的情況，正如我所說，我們已經收回了秋季看到的一些增長。這就是它所在的地方。

Okay. And then you just plan to operate at that level for the remainder of the year, correct?

好的。然後你就計劃在今年剩下的時間裡保持這個水平，對嗎？

Well, I think the market will dictate where incentives are. We'll continue to lower incentives if the market continues to permit us to do that.

嗯，我認為市場將決定激勵措施在哪裡。如果市場繼續允許我們這樣做，我們將繼續降低激勵措施。

And, don't forget, prices increases. Nothing makes us happier or the backlog when they see the price sheet go up. So it is a combination as you're bringing incentives down, you usually have the ability to also take the price of the home up. It's a combined impact.

而且，不要忘記，價格上漲。當他們看到價格表上漲時，沒有什麼比積壓的訂單更讓我們高興的了。因此，這是一個結合，當你降低激勵措施時，你通常也有能力提高房屋的價格。這是綜合影響。

Michael Rehaut, JPMorgan.

麥可雷豪特，摩根大通。

Doug, first, on the first quarter -- I'm sorry, fourth quarter description about -- I'm sorry, first quarter description about the gross margin being the low point due to a combination of mix and incentives. I was wondering to get perhaps a rough breakout of how much of that difference in the first quarter versus the rest of the year is due to mix versus incentives. And more broadly, when you think about your spec strategy, obviously, you kind of highlighted the higher level of incentives that you applied to the finished spec in your -- that you had in the fourth quarter. If the market continues to be a little more volatile, if there's a little bit more, let's say, looseness in inventory or whatnot, would that cause you to shift a little bit away from spec maybe versus how you've approached the market in the last couple of years?

道格，首先，關於第一季——對不起，第四季度的描述——對不起，第一季的毛利率描述是由於混合和激勵措施的結合而導致的低點。我想知道第一季與今年剩餘時間的差異有多少是由於混合與激勵措施造成的。更廣泛地說，當您考慮您的規範策略時，顯然，您強調了您在第四季度的最終規範中應用的更高水平的激勵措施。如果市場繼續波動，如果有更多的波動，比如說庫存鬆動或其他什麼，這是否會導致你稍微偏離規格，而不是你在市場上的做法過去幾年？

So Mike, about 80% of the lower margin of Q1 is mix. We have less coming out of the Pacific region, and we have less coming out of the Mid-Atlantic. In Q1, that reverses itself and gets back to a more normal mix for the balance of the year. The other 20% is what we described, which is through September and October, rates jumped, buyers hit the sidelines as the election was approaching and most particularly with our finished inventory homes, which are the ones that we'll be delivering in Q1, we bumped the incentive a bit to move them. And as we've mentioned, we've seen a lot of that already reversed with the election behind us and with rates now stabilizing or even modestly dropping as we get closer and closer to that mid-January launch of the spring season.

所以麥克，第一季的較低利潤率中大約 80% 是混合的。我們來自太平洋地區的產品較少，來自大西洋中部的產品也較少。在第一季度，這種情況發生逆轉，並在今年剩餘時間內恢復到更正常的組合。另外 20% 是我們所描述的，即到 9 月和 10 月，隨著選舉的臨近，利率飆升，買家觀望，尤其是我們將在第一季度交付的成品庫存房屋，我們稍微降低了移動它們的動機。正如我們所提到的，隨著選舉的結束，我們已經看到很多情況已經發生逆轉，隨著我們越來越接近一月中旬春季的啟動，利率現在趨於穩定，甚至略有下降。

Marty, do you want to take the rest of that?

馬蒂，你想接受剩下的嗎？

I think I'd like to take the opportunity to iterate how returns focused we are. And with respect to any change to our spec strategy, I think that's unlikely based on what has allowed us to do with returns. And so we'll continue to be mindful of the specs we have particularly as market softness might occur, which we don't anticipate right now. But I think we want to reiterate our focus on returns and what we've been able to accomplish with return on equity through the combination of elevated gross margins, high gross margins, good operating margin and capital redeployment through dividends and repurchase.

我想我想藉此機會重申我們對回報的重視程度。至於我們的規格策略的任何變化，我認為基於我們對回報的處理方式，這不太可能。因此，我們將繼續關注我們所擁有的規格，特別是因為市場可能會疲軟，而我們目前並沒有預料到這種情況。但我認為我們想重申我們對回報的關注，以及我們透過提高毛利率、高毛利率、良好的營業利潤率以及透過股息和回購進行資本重新部署的結合，能夠實現的股本回報率。

Yes. I think it's important, once again, just quickly explain this new strategy that is now fully in place. When we were building 5 (inaudible) of our communities with spec, in today's market, you would be driving a higher margin because the build-to-order business at the luxury, luxury end of the business, which is what built Toll Brothers had a higher margin. We would be a much smaller company, and we wouldn't be able to drive the same ROE because that land is very expensive. It takes much longer to build the houses, and it's much harder to turn the money.

是的。我認為重要的是，再次快速解釋這項現已完全到位的新策略。當我們建造 5 個（聽不清楚）具有規格的社區時，在當今的市場上，您將獲得更高的利潤，因為在豪華、豪華業務領域的按訂單生產業務，這就是 Toll Brothers 所建造的更高的利潤。我們將成為一家規模小得多的公司，我們將無法實現相同的 ROE，因為土地非常昂貴。建造房屋需要更長的時間，賺錢也更困難。

So we are very happy with a blend that may be a little bit below that build-to-order margin because we recognize the spec margin. It's at a lower price point. It tends at times to have to be incentivized a little bit more. But when you put it all together, it's still a great margin. We're a much bigger company more revenue, more EPS and we are much more capital efficient.

因此，我們對可能略低於按訂單生產利潤的混合感到非常滿意，因為我們認識到規格利潤。它的價格較低。有時往往需要給予更多的激勵。但當你把它們放在一起時，它仍然是一個很大的利潤。我們是一家規模更大的公司，收入更高，每股收益更高，資本效率也更高。

And so as we move forward, this mix, we think, is perfect for the business that we are achieving.

因此，隨著我們前進，我們認為這種組合對於我們正在實現的業務來說是完美的。

Great. I appreciate that your perspective as well. I think it's helpful. Secondly, I'd love to just revisit your comments around the strong start to the first quarter. I'm just trying to understand a little bit better what you think are the drivers behind that?

偉大的。我也很欣賞你的觀點。我認為這很有幫助。其次，我很想重新回顧您對第一季強勁開局的評論。我只是想更了解您認為背後的驅動因素是什麼？

In other words, is it some of the election uncertainty that's maybe gone away? Is it rates perhaps stabilizing? And also to kind of delve into just the broader market trends, (inaudible) love a sense of how inventory is trending in your view across your key markets. If there's any markets where you've seen inventory pick up and how that might be playing into market dynamics as well?

換句話說，選舉的一些不確定性是否可能已經消失了？利率可能會趨於穩定嗎？而且，為了深入研究更廣泛的市場趨勢，（聽不清楚）喜歡了解您在關鍵市場中的庫存趨勢。您是否發現某個市場的庫存增加？

re. So why did the market get better in the (inaudible)? Number one, the election was behind us. Number one. Those on the sidelines came back out.

關於。那麼為什麼市場在（聽不清楚）中變得更好呢？第一，選舉已經過去了。第一。旁邊的人也都回來了。

Number two, a good to great economy. Number three, rates stabilizing coming down a bit and being digested and accepted by the client. We talked about it earlier, the significant equity that 3/4 of our buyers because 3/4 of our businesses move up and move down, significant equity they have in their houses, and therefore, their ability to trade up and maybe pay all or more cash by using that equity and not being as tied to the affordability issues of the higher rates. Affluent buyers, it's not just those that have equity in their house. They're just affluent buyers with good investments in the market that have done well and good jobs.

第二，經濟從好到偉大。第三，費率穩定下來，並被客戶消化和接受。我們之前談過，我們3/4 的買家因為我們3/4 的企業向上和向下移動而擁有大量資產，他們在自己的房屋中擁有大量資產，因此，他們有能力進行向上交易，並可能支付全部或透過使用這些股權來獲得更多現金，而不是與較高利率的負擔能力問題掛鉤。富裕的買家，不僅僅是那些擁有房屋淨值的人。他們只是富裕的買家，在市場上進行了良好的投資，並且做得很好，工作也很好。

We have a stock market that has been performing very well. Now some of that, you'll say, well, that occurred in October. That's why I started with postelection because I think all of those other components, while many of them had been in place preelection, the election being behind it us free it up. And so -- and the wealth transfer, I didn't even mention, which is -- and we said it in our prepared comments, incredible amount of money being passed down from mom and dad to their kids, so they can so they can buy their home, usually their first home. So I think that is the driver and we're excited for January.

我們的股票市場一直表現良好。現在，您可能會說，其中一些發生在十月。這就是為什麼我從選舉後開始，因為我認為所有其他組成部分，雖然其中許多組成部分已經在選舉前就位，但選舉在背後，我們將其釋放出來。所以，我什至沒有提到財富轉移，我們在準備好的評論中說過，大量的錢從父母那裡傳給了他們的孩子，這樣他們就可以購買他們的房子，通常是他們的第一套房子。所以我認為這就是驅動因素，我們對一月份感到興奮。

Rafe Jadrosich, Bank of America.

拉夫·賈德羅西奇，美國銀行。

Just following up on the first quarter gross margin guidance and then the improvement in the second -- through the second to fourth quarter. Can you just talk about maybe what you're assuming for spec margins? I know it's a little bit different for you because you have different levels of spec, whether it's sold free drywall or is finished specs. So what do you assume for spec margins in the first quarter and then for the rest of the year?

只是跟進第一季的毛利率指引，然後是第二季的改善——從第二季到第四季。能談談您對規格利潤率的假設嗎？我知道這對您來說有點不同，因為您有不同等級的規格，無論是免費出售的乾牆還是成品規格。那麼，您對第一季和今年剩餘時間的規格利潤率有何假設？

So our spec margin runs about 200 basis points below the average gross margin. So we've been guiding to 27.25% for the year. You can do that math, and our build-to-order margin is about 200 basis points above at average gross margin. In the first quarter, because we incentivized a little bit more as we talked about on finished spec that is delivering in the first quarter that 2 basis point spread is a little bit more.

因此，我們的規格利潤率比平均毛利率低約 200 個基點。因此，我們今年的目標是 27.25%。您可以計算一下，我們的按單生產利潤率比平均毛利率高出約 200 個基點。在第一季度，因為我們在討論第一季度交付的成品規格時採取了更多的激勵措施，因此 2 個基點的利差稍微多了一點。

And then assuming it goes back to normal for the normal spread in the remainder of the year?

然後假設在今年剩餘時間內恢復到正常的正常價差呢？

That is our assumption. That's right.

這是我們的假設。這是正確的。

All right. That's helpful. And then I think, Doug, in the past, you've spoken about some either regional or market differences. When you look at the fiscal -- the fourth quarter and heading into the fiscal first quarter, where are you seeing relative pockets of strength? And then where -- are there any specific markets where you've had to be a little bit more aggressive on the incentive side?

好的。這很有幫助。然後我想，道格，您過去曾談到過一些區域或市場差異。當您查看第四季度和第一財季的財報時，您在哪些方面看到了相對強勁的部分？那麼，在哪些特定市場中，您必須在激勵方面採取更積極的態度？

Are there specific regional trends? Or is it by price point? Can you just talk about the relative differences?

有具體的區域趨勢嗎？還是以價位來算？能談談相對差異嗎？

Sure. We have broad-based strength around the country. The Boston to Washington, DC market, which was a bit forgotten through the (inaudible) years when everybody was running away, is incredibly strong. Texas, there's a lot of chatter about Texas.

當然。我們在全國擁有廣泛的實力。波士頓到華盛頓特區的市場在（聽不清楚）大家都在逃跑的那些年有點被遺忘，但現在卻異常強勁。德克薩斯州，有很多關於德克薩斯州的討論。

I would take Dallas and Houston out of that conversation right now. We're seeing strength in those markets. Those are by far our biggest two Texas markets and they are back. There is still some softness in Austin that is driven by affordability because Austin prices ran and ran and ran through COVID. And so there's a bit more affordability pressure there with the higher prices.

我現在會把達拉斯和休士頓從談話中剔除。我們看到這些市場的實力。這是迄今為止我們德州最大的兩個市場，它們又回來了。奧斯汀仍然存在一些由負擔能力驅動的疲軟，因為奧斯汀的價格在新冠疫情期間不斷上漲。因此，價格上漲會帶來更大的負擔能力壓力。

And then San Antonio, which is a very small market for us, has also been a bit softer. Out west, all good, the only market that we have a little bit of caution out on as Phoenix, where inventories are up a little bit. And while it's good, it is certainly -- I wouldn't call it great. And then the one in (inaudible) last is Florida. The good news in Florida is Jacksonville has been very strong, but the other markets in Florida have seen some elevated inventory levels.

聖安東尼奧對我們來說是一個非常小的市場，也有點疲軟。西部地區，一切都很好，這是我們在鳳凰城唯一一個稍微謹慎的市場，那裡的庫存略有上升。雖然它很好，但它確實——我不會稱之為偉大。最後一個（聽不清楚）是佛羅裡達州。佛羅裡達州的好消息是傑克遜維爾一直非常強勁，但佛羅裡達州其他市場的庫存水準有所上升。

They also had significant price increases through COVID that outpaced the company -- excuse me, the country's average, and therefore, there's a bit more of an affordability issue down there because prices are up. And so we're keeping an eye on Florida. The winter season is just beginning as the snowbirds are arriving, but that's probably our most cautionary market in the country.

由於新冠疫情，他們的價格也大幅上漲，超過了公司的漲幅——對不起，是全國的平均水平，因此，由於價格上漲，承受能力問題更大。所以我們正在密切關注佛羅裡達州。隨著雪鳥的到來，冬季才剛剛開始，但這可能是我們在這個國家最謹慎的市場。

As it relates to the product type, Luxury is our best performer. Affordable luxury comes in second. And then the third would be our age-restricted active adult which is really not quite as strong simply because of a very tough comp the year before.

就產品類型而言，奢侈品是我們表現最好的。經濟實惠的奢侈品位居第二。第三個是我們有年齡限制的活躍成年人，由於前一年的比賽非常艱難，它實際上並沒有那麼強大。

I think that market is good because there's a lot of boomers and they're paying a lot of cash because of that equity in their house. But on paper, it doesn't get good right now, but that's really the comp to last year more than the quality of that business today.

我認為這個市場很好，因為有很多嬰兒潮世代，他們因為房子的淨值而支付了大量現金。但從紙面上看，現在的情況並不好，但這實際上是去年的比較，而不是今天的業務品質。

Alan Ratner, Zelman & Associates.

艾倫·拉特納，Zelman & Associates。

Thanks for all the great color so far. Most of my questions have been answered here, but I got a few. First on the potential for tariffs. I'm curious if you guys have done any internal analysis of your supply chain to try to figure out what potential exposure might be there either from China, Canada, Mexico, and if you've done any work to try to kind of expand your supplier base to kind of avoid some of those risks.

感謝迄今為止所有出色的顏色。我的大部分問題都已在這裡得到解答，但我還有一些問題。首先是關稅的潛力。我很好奇你們是否對你們的供應鏈進行了內部分析，試圖找出來自中國、加拿大、墨西哥的潛在風險，以及你們是否做過任何工作來嘗試擴大你們的供應鏈。風險。

Well, we've certainly done some analysis, we've had a lot of good conversations with our suppliers. We went through supply chain issues in a big way through the COVID years. that wasn't tariff driven. It was availability driven. So this industry and Toll Brothers have some experience on how to navigate through some supply chain challenges.

嗯，我們確實做了一些分析，我們與供應商進行了很多良好的對話。在新冠疫情期間，我們嚴重經歷了供應鏈問題。這不是關稅驅動的。這是可用性驅動的。因此，這個行業和 Toll Brothers 在如何應對一些供應鏈挑戰方面擁有一些經驗。

Overall, we are comfortable that it will be de minimis, but we have to wait and see. I don't think it's clear to anybody yet exactly where and when and to what extent the tariffs hit. I think most of our suppliers are studying it. They're prepared. A lot of them moved if not to the US, they moved closer to the US.

總體而言，我們對這將是微不足道的感到滿意，但我們必須拭目以待。我認為任何人都不清楚關稅的具體地點、時間和程度。我想我們大多數供應商都在研究它。他們已經準備好了。他們中的許多人即使沒有搬到美國，也搬到了離美國更近的地方。

and a lot of the manufacturing over the last 5 to 10 years. So this is a wait and see. We're prepared for it. And I don't personally think it's going to be a big issue but we're not prepared to try to quantify it at this point. We'll just have to see.

以及過去 5 到 10 年的大量製造業。所以這是一個觀望的過程。我們已做好準備。我個人認為這不會是一個大問題，但我們目前不準備嘗試量化它。我們只需要看看。

Great. Appreciate the thoughts there, Doug. This one might be for Marty, but obviously, a huge focus on ROE across the company, and it's pretty visible. The steps are taking there to keep that ROE high. I wanted to just touch quickly on the joint venture line on the balance sheet.

偉大的。欣賞那裡的想法，道格。這可能是針對 Marty 的，但顯然，整個公司都非常關注 ROE，而且這一點非常明顯。我們正在採取措施保持較高的股本回報率。我想快速了解一下資產負債表上的合資企業項目。

You've got about $1 billion investment there. And if I look back historically, the joint venture line on the P&L has traditionally been a pretty solid contributor of earnings this past year, it wasn't. And I know the composition of your (inaudible) have changed, I think, historically, it might have been a bit more city living projects and now maybe it's some land JVs. So I was hoping you could just give a little bit more color on what's embedded in that investment and how we should expect to see that flow through the P&L and the returns going forward?

你在那裡有大約10億美元的投資。如果我回顧歷史，損益表上的合資項目傳統上是去年收益的相當可靠的貢獻者，但事實並非如此。我知道你們（聽不清楚）的組成已經發生了變化，我認為，從歷史上看，它可能是更多的城市生活項目，現在可能是一些土地合資企業。因此，我希望您能對這項投資中包含的內容提供更多的說明，以及我們應該如何期望看到該投資在損益表中的流動以及未來的回報？

Yes. So our JV line includes an investment in a couple of city living buildings. It's relatively small. It includes investment in our apartment projects that are stabilized or in development. Generally, we absorbed a bit of an operating loss during the development period of time and then show a gain on sale.

是的。因此，我們的合資產品線包括對幾座城市居住建築的投資。它相對較小。它包括對我們穩定或正在開發的公寓項目的投資。一般來說，我們在開發期間吸收了一些營運虧損，然後在銷售時顯示出收益。

So that's a bit lumpy through the income statement. And then a lot of our JV is what I'm going to call breakeven land development ventures with other builders where it's designed to hold the land off balance sheet, feed the land to each of the builders at cost and generate higher gross margins on balance sheet on the income statement.

所以損益表上的數據有點混亂。然後，我們的許多合資企業就是我所說的與其他建築商的盈虧平衡土地開發企業，其目的是將土地保留在資產負債表之外，以成本價將土地提供給每個建築商，並產生更高的毛利率損益表上的表。

Sam Reid, Wells Fargo. Your line is open. Is it muted accidentally? Okay. We'll go to the next questioner in that case, which will be Alex Barron with the Housing Research Center.

薩姆·里德，富國銀行。您的線路已開通。是不是不小心靜音了？好的。在這種情況下，我們將請下一位提問者，他是住房研究中心的亞歷克斯·巴倫(Alex Barron)。

Yes. Thank you. Yes, I wanted to ask about the price cuts you've mentioned. I think I heard $12,000 or something like that. I mean it doesn't seem like that level of price cut would make a big difference in the affordability of people buying your homes.

是的。謝謝。是的，我想問你提到的降價事宜。我想我聽說過 12,000 美元之類的。我的意思是，降價幅度似乎不會對購買你的房屋的人的承受能力產生很大影響。

So I'm just wondering if that's working, what's -- is it just more of an emotional thing that gets people over the fence to buy because of that? Is there any offsetting thing you guys are doing, say, on closing costs or something else? Or like can you just elaborate a little bit on that? How is it moving the needle?

所以我只是想知道這是否有效，這是否只是一種情感因素，讓人們越過柵欄去購買？你們是否正在做任何抵銷性的事情，例如，在結帳成本或其他方面？或是能詳細說明一下嗎？它是如何移動針的？

Great question, Alex. Is it working? We had 30% order growth. So yes, it's working in a tough market. Is it emotional?

好問題，亞歷克斯。有效嗎？我們的訂單增加了 30%。所以是的，它在一個艱難的市場中運作。是情緒化的嗎？

Absolutely. Those stats of 28%, all cash and 69% LTV ratio, that $12,000 isn't necessary to qualify our buyer but it helps them feel like and what they know is a bit of a softer market because they read about it. They know on the sidelines with an election coming up. They know rates have jumped up. Sometimes it just gives them a little bit that is necessary to make them feel like I squeezed a couple of bucks out of Toll, I got a deal and I'm ready to go.

絕對地。 28%、全現金和 69% LTV 比率的統計數據，12,000 美元對於我們的買家來說並不是必要的，但它幫助他們感覺市場有點疲軟，因為他們讀到了相關資訊。他們知道選舉即將到來。他們知道利率已經上漲。有時候，這只是給了他們一點必要的東西，讓他們覺得我從拓領那裡榨了幾塊錢，我達成了協議，我準備好了。

Now of course, I always challenge my guys, why didn't we give it away because I felt you still could have gotten them if you didn't give them the extra money. But I usually lose that argument. But yes, I think you've nailed it. It's not -- we're buying mortgages down so the buyer can qualify for a mortgage at the lower rate because they can't qualify at the market rate. This is much more emotional as we are absorbing sort of the headlines and the softening market, it's how the business rolls.

當然，現在我總是挑戰我的人，為什麼我們不把它放棄，因為我覺得如果你不給他們額外的錢，你仍然可以得到它們。但我通常會輸掉這場爭論。但是，是的，我認為你已經成功了。事實並非如此——我們購買抵押貸款是為了讓買家能夠以較低的利率獲得抵押貸款，因為他們無法按照市場利率獲得抵押貸款。當我們吸收各種頭條新聞和疲軟的市場時，這會更加情緒化，這就是業務的發展方式。

It's very subjective. It's very soft. We reverse it as quickly as we can. We're all about driving price, making that backlog feel great. But during that period of time, we drove orders up 30% and by playing around a little bit with the incentive and making our customers feel good.

這是非常主觀的。它非常柔軟。我們會盡快扭轉局面。我們致力於提高價格，讓積壓的訂單感覺很棒。但在那段時間裡，我們採取一些激勵措施，讓客戶感覺良好，使訂單量增加了 30%。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to management for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉交管理層發表閉幕詞。

Drew, thank you. You were great. Thanks, everyone, for all your support, all your interest. We're always here for you to answer any questions offline you may have. Have a wonderful, wonderful holiday season.

德魯，謝謝你。你很棒。謝謝大家的支持與關注。我們隨時為您在線下解答任何問題。祝您有個美好、美好的假期。

And thank you again.

再次感謝您。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。