托爾兄弟 (TOL) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Toll Brothers Second Quarter Fiscal Year 2024 Conference Call. (Operator Instructions). After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. (Operator Instructions) The company is planning to end the call at 9:30 when the market opens. (Operator Instructions). Please note today's event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Douglas Yearley, CEO. Please go ahead, sir.

早上好，歡迎參加 Toll Brothers 2024 財年第二季電話會議。 （操作員說明）。今天的演講結束後，將有機會提問。 （操作員指示）該公司計劃在 9:30 開市時結束通話。 （操作員說明）。請注意今天的活動正在錄製中。我現在想將會議交給執行長道格拉斯·耶爾利 (Douglas Yearley)。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, Rocco. Good morning. Welcome, and thank you all for joining us. As usual, I caution you that many statements on this call are forward-looking based on assumptions about the economy, world events, housing and financial markets, interest rates, the availability of labor and materials, inflation and many other factors beyond our control that could significantly affect future results. Please read our statement on forward-looking information in our earnings release last night and on our website to better understand the risks associated with our forward-looking statements.

謝謝你，羅科。早安.歡迎並感謝大家加入我們。像往常一樣，我提醒您，本次電話會議中的許多陳述都是前瞻性的，基於對經濟、世界事件、住房和金融市場、利率、勞動力和材料的供應、通貨膨脹以及我們無法控制的許多其他因素的假設。請閱讀我們昨晚發布的收益報告和我們網站上關於前瞻性資訊的聲明，以更好地了解與我們的前瞻性聲明相關的風險。

With me today are Marty Connor, Chief Financial Officer; Rob Parahus, President and Chief Operating Officer; Fred Cooper, Senior VP of Finance and Investor Relations; Wendy Marlett, Chief Marketing Officer; and Gregg Ziegler, Senior VP and Treasurer.

今天和我在一起的有財務長馬蒂康納 (Marty Connor)；羅布‧帕拉胡斯 (Rob Parahus)，總裁兼營運長； Fred Cooper，財務與投資者關係資深副總裁；溫蒂‧馬萊特，首席行銷長；以及資深副總裁兼財務主管 Gregg Ziegler。

Before I begin, I would like to take a moment to acknowledge the passing of Don Horton, Chairman and Founder of D.R. Horton. Like our founder, Bob Toll, the D.R. was a pioneer and an icon of the industry who helped shape how we all do business today. We extend our deepest sympathies to the Horton family and the entire D.R. Horton organization.

在開始之前，我想花一點時間對 D.R. 董事長兼創始人 Don Horton 的去世表示哀悼。霍頓。就像我們的創辦人 Bob Toll 一樣，D.R.是行業的先驅和偶像，他幫助塑造了我們今天的經營方式。我們向霍頓家族和整個 D.R. 致以最深切的同情。霍頓組織。

Turning to our second quarter results. I'm very pleased with our strong performance in the quarter. We delivered 2,641 homes at an average price of approximately $1 million, generating record second quarter home sales revenues of $2.65 billion, up 6% compared to last year and $185 million better than the midpoint of our guidance. We also signed 3,041 net agreements for $2.94 billion, up 30% in units and 29% in total dollars compared to last year. Solid demand has continued into the start of our third quarter.

轉向我們第二季的業績。我對我們本季的強勁表現感到非常滿意。我們以約 100 萬美元的平均價格交付了 2,641 套房屋，第二季度房屋銷售收入達到創紀錄的 26.5 億美元，比去年增長 6%，比我們指導的中位數高出 1.85 億美元。我們還簽署了 3,041 份淨協議，價值​​ 29.4 億美元，與去年相比，數量增加了 30%，總美元增加了 29%。強勁的需求一直持續到第三季初。

We have had a really good first 3 weeks of May. Our adjusted gross margin was 28.2% in the second quarter, 60 basis points better than guidance and SG&A expense as a percentage of home sales revenues was 9.0%, 70 basis points better than guidance. Both benefited from strong cost controls and greater leverage of fixed costs on higher home sales revenues.

五月的前三週我們過得非常好。第二季調整後毛利率為 28.2%，比指引高 60 個基點，SG&A 費用佔房屋銷售收入的百分比為 9.0%，比指引高 70 個基點。兩者都受益於強有力的成本控制以及固定成本對更高房屋銷售收入的更大槓桿作用。

Joint venture, land sales and other income was approximately $204 million in the quarter, most of which was generated by the land sale we discussed last quarter. As a reminder, in February, we sold a parcel of land in Northern Virginia to a data center developer. That transaction generated $181 million of net cash and $175 million in pretax land sale gains. All of this resulted in pretax income of approximately $650 million in the second quarter and record earnings of $4.55 per diluted share, a 60% increase over the $2.85 per share we earned last year. Adjusting for the land sale benefit, we earned $3.38 per diluted share, up 19% from last year.

本季合資、土地出售和其他收入約為 2.04 億美元，其中大部分來自我們上季度討論的土地出售。提醒一下，二月份，我們將弗吉尼亞州北部的一塊土地出售給了一家資料中心開發商。該交易產生了 1.81 億美元的淨現金和 1.75 億美元的稅前土地出售收益。所有這些導致第二季度稅前收入約為 6.5 億美元，稀釋後每股收益達到創紀錄的 4.55 美元，比去年每股 2.85 美元增長了 60%。調整土地出售收益後，我們每股攤薄收益為 3.38 美元，比去年增長 19%。

With continued strong demand for our homes and better-than-projected second quarter results, we are raising our full year 2024 revenue and earnings guidance. At the midpoint of our guidance, we now expect to deliver 10,600 homes at an average price of approximately $965,000, which would result in $10.23 billion of revenue, nearly $500 million or 5% better than our previous guidance.

由於對房屋的持續強勁需求和好於預期的第二季度業績，我們上調了 2024 年全年收入和盈利指引。在我們指導的中點，我們現在預計將以約 965,000 美元的平均價格交付 10,600 套房屋，這將帶來 102.3 億美元的收入，比我們之前的指導高出近 5 億美元或 5%。

We continue to expect a full year adjusted gross margin of 28.0% and which translates to an additional $137 million of gross profit on our increased revenue guidance. And we expect an SG&A margin of 9.6%, 20 basis points better than our previous guidance. This guidance would result in an operating margin of over 18% and earnings per share of approximately $14 and a return on beginning equity of approximately 22%.

我們仍預期全年調整後毛利率為 28.0%，這意味著我們在增加收入指引的基礎上額外增加 1.37 億美元的毛利。我們預計 SG&A 利潤率為 9.6%，比我們先前的指導高出 20 個基點。這項指引將使營業利潤率超過 18%，每股收益約為 14 美元，期初股本回報率約為 22%。

Our outstanding results in the first half of the fiscal year and the increase in our guidance for the full year are being driven by execution of the strategies that we've outlined on recent calls. To take advantage of the healthy demand and persistent lack of inventory that characterizes this market, we have both widened our price points to include more affordable luxury homes and increased our supply of spec homes, which has helped us grow market share. This also enables us to reduce cycle times, improve inventory turns and leverage our fixed costs, driving revenue growth and higher operating margins. With these strategies firmly in place and producing results and with our more capital-efficient land strategy, we are confident that we can continue to generate attractive returns well into the future.

我們在本財年上半年取得的出色業績以及全年指導的增加是由於執行我們在最近的電話會議中概述的策略而推動的。為了利用這個市場的健康需求和持續缺乏庫存的特點，我們擴大了價格點以包括更實惠的豪華住宅，並增加了規格住宅的供應，這幫助我們擴大了市場份額。這也使我們能夠縮短週期時間，提高庫存週轉率並利用我們的固定成本，推動收入成長和更高的營業利潤率。憑藉這些策略的堅定實施並產生成果，以及我們更具資本效率的土地策略，我們有信心在未來繼續創造有吸引力的回報。

Turning to market conditions. Demand has proven resilient even as rates increase, from 6.75% to 7.5% through the quarter. Sales were evenly spread across the second quarter with about 1,000 net signed contracts each month. As I mentioned earlier, we have seen strong demand continue through the first 3 weeks of May, which is encouraging. And it's nice to see rates dropping over the past week.

轉向市場狀況。事實證明，即使利率上漲（本季從 6.75% 升至 7.5%），需求仍具有彈性。第二季的銷售額分佈均勻，每月淨簽訂合約約 1,000 份。正如我之前提到的，我們看到 5 月前 3 週持續強勁的需求，這是令人鼓舞的。很高興看到過去一周利率下降。

Geographically, we saw broad-based and healthy demand across our entire footprint. We saw solid demand from Boston through Atlanta, especially in New Jersey. Texas; California; Boise, Idaho; and Colorado were also strong performers. Demand was also solid across all of our product lines. Sales of our luxury homes were a little bit stronger compared to the first quarter with approximately 37% of units and 53% of dollars. Affordable luxury was 44% of units and 31% of dollars, and active adult was 19% and 16%, respectively.

從地理上看，我們在整個業務範圍內看到了基礎廣泛且健康的需求。我們看到從波士頓到亞特蘭大的強勁需求，尤其是新澤西州。德克薩斯州；加州；愛達荷州博伊西；和科羅拉多州也表現強勁。我們所有產品線的需求也很強勁。與第一季相比，我們的豪華住宅銷量略有成長，約佔 37% 的單位和 53% 的美元。經濟實惠的奢侈品分別佔單位的 44% 和美元的 31%，活躍的成年人分別佔 19% 和 16%。

We raised net price after incentives and about 60% of our communities, leading to an approximate $10,000 net price increase across the company. While mortgage rate buy downs are heavily marketed and offered nationwide, very few of our buyers use incentive dollars to buy down their rates. The vast majority of our customers can qualify for a mortgage without a buydown, and they prefer to use any incentives offered on design studio upgrades or to reduce their closing costs.

經過激勵措施後，我們提高了約 60% 社區的淨價，導致整個公司的淨價上漲了約 10,000 美元。雖然抵押貸款利率下調在全國範圍內進行了大量行銷和提供，但我們的買家很少使用激勵資金來下調利率。我們的絕大多數客戶無需首付即可獲得抵押貸款，他們更願意使用設計工作室升級提供的任何激勵措施或降低結帳成本。

We continue to be very pleased with our luxury focus as we are benefiting from a financially healthy consumer, strong demand and limited competition. With the widening of our product lines, approximately 30% of our customers are first-time home buyers. Most of these buyers are millennials, many of whom have waited later in life to form families and have accumulated greater wealth when they buy their first home. Some are benefiting from the greatest well transfer in U.S. history from boomer parents who want to see their kids enjoy the fruits of their success and help them financially.

我們仍然對我們對奢侈品的關注感到非常滿意，因為我們受益於財務健康的消費者、強勁的需求和有限的競爭。隨著我們產品線的拓寬，大約 30% 的客戶是首次購屋者。這些買家大多是千禧世代，他們中的許多人等到晚年才組建家庭，並在購買第一套房子時積累了更多財富。有些人受益於美國歷史上最大的福利轉移，這些轉移來自嬰兒潮世代的父母，他們希望看到自己的孩子享受成功的果實，並在經濟上幫助他們。

Approximately 27% of our buyers paid all cash in the second quarter, up from 25% in the first quarter and are long-term average of approximately 20%. The LTVs for buyers who took a mortgage was approximately 69% in the quarter. So for the 73% of our buyers who took a mortgage, on average, they put down 31%.

大約 27% 的買家在第二季支付了全部現金，高於第一季的 25%，長期平均約為 20%。本季抵押貸款買家的 LTV 約為 69%。因此，對於 73% 的抵押貸款買家來說，他們平均首付為 31%。

These metrics include the 30% of our customers who were first-time buyers and highlight the financial strength and affluence of our entire customer base. In fact in the second quarter, 20% of our affordable luxury buyers, many of whom are first-time buyers, paid all cash with an LTV of 74% for those who did get a mortgage. We are pleased that our cancellation rate in the second quarter remained low at 2.8% of beginning backlog.

這些指標包括我們 30% 的首次購買者，並突顯了我們整個客戶群的財務實力和富裕程度。事實上，在第二季度，我們 20% 的經濟適用奢侈品買家（其中許多是首次買家）支付了全部現金，對於那些獲得抵押貸款的人來說，LTV 為 74%。我們很高興第二季的取消率保持在初始積壓的 2.8% 的低水準。

We are also benefiting from the growing difference in quality between new and resale homes. The median age of an existing home in the U.S. is now over 40 years old. Approximately 60% of existing homes were built before 1980, and 35% and were built before 1970, making new homes even more attractive. They are built better, require less maintenance or less expensive to insure, are more energy efficient, and include features that today's buyer wants.

我們也受惠於新房和轉售房之間日益擴大的品質差異。美國現有房屋的中位數年齡現已超過 40 歲。大約 60% 的現有住宅建於 1980 年之前，35% 建於 1970 年之前，這使得新住宅更具吸引力。它們建造得更好，需要更少的維護或保險成本更低，更節能，並包含當今買家想要的功能。

Many are also part of communities that have spectacular amenities. All of these factors are helping to fuel a flight in new homes that we believe will continue even, if rates come down and the resale market unlocks. As good as our business is now, we look forward to, and we'll welcome lower rates.

許多人也是擁有一流設施的社區的一部分。所有這些因素都有助於推動新房屋的湧入，我們相信，即使利率下降且轉售市場開放，這種趨勢仍將持續。儘管我們現在的業務很好，但我們期待並歡迎更低的費率。

During the quarter, we continued to execute on our spec strategy. Specs represented approximately 54% of orders and 46% of deliveries in the second quarter, allowing us to meet the strong demand from buyers who choose a quicker move-in. As a reminder, we sell our specs at various stages of construction from foundation to finished home. This allows some of our spec buyers the opportunity to visit our design studios and personalize their homes with finishes that match their tastes. So choice, a very important pillar of Toll Brothers, is still part of our spec strategy.

本季度，我們繼續執行我們的規格策略。第二季度，規格約佔訂單量的 54% 和交付量的 46%，這使我們能夠滿足選擇更快入住的買家的強勁需求。提醒一下，我們在從地基到成品住宅的各個施工階段出售我們的規格。這使得我們的一些規格買家有機會參觀我們的設計工作室，並使用符合他們品味的飾面來個性化他們的房屋。因此，選擇作為 Toll Brothers 非常重要的支柱，仍然是我們規格策略的一部分。

Looking forward, we continue to expect community count growth to help drive results in fiscal 2024 and beyond. At second quarter end, we were operating from 386 communities, one more than the 385 we guided to last quarter. We remain on target to reach our year-end guidance of approximately 410 communities, which would be an approximate 10% increase versus first fiscal year-end 2023.

展望未來，我們繼續預期社區數量的成長將有助於推動 2024 財年及以後的業績。截至第二季末，我們在 386 個社區開展業務，比我們上季度指導的 385 個社區多了 1 個。我們的目標仍然是達到約 410 個社區的年底指導目標，這將比 2023 年第一個財年增加約 10%。

We control all the land we need to support continued growth in fiscal 2025 and 2026. At second quarter end, we controlled approximately 72,000 lots, 48% of which were optioned and 42% of which were contracted for prior to 2021. This land position allows us to be highly selective and disciplined as we assess new land opportunities.

我們控制著支持2025 財年和2026 財年持續成長所需的所有土地。合約。

We continue to be pleased with the quantity and quality of land deals we review each week. We are seeing a healthy flow of deals that meet our rigorous underwriting standards, which are focused on both margins and returns, and we continue to structure terms in more capital-efficient ways in order to enhance returns.

我們對每週審查的土地交易的數量和質量仍然感到滿意。我們看到符合我們嚴格承保標準的健康交易流，這些標準注重利潤和回報，並且我們繼續以更資本效率的方式建立條款，以提高回報。

Turning to the balance sheet. At quarter end, we held approximately $1 billion of cash and cash equivalents, and our net debt to capital ratio was 18.7% and with no significant near-term debt maturities. We have also been generating strong operating cash flows, which we expect to continue well into the future. This provides us plenty of opportunity to both grow our business and return capital to shareholders. During the quarter, we've repurchased $181 million of common stock and increased our quarterly dividend by 10%. Returning cash to stockholders will continue to be a very important part of our strategy well into the future.

轉向資產負債表。截至季末，我們持有約 10 億美元的現金和現金等價物，淨負債與資本比率為 18.7%，且近期沒有重大債務到期。我們也產生了強勁的營運現金流，我們預計這種情況將持續到未來。這為我們提供了大量的機會來發展業務並向股東返還資本。本季度，我們回購了 1.81 億美元的普通股，並將季度股息增加了 10%。向股東返還現金將繼續成為我們未來策略的一個非常重要的組成部分。

With that, let me turn it over to Marty.

接下來，讓我把它交給馬蒂。

Thanks, Doug. We had a terrific second quarter, beating our guidance for deliveries homebuilding revenue, adjusted gross margin, SG&A and earnings. Our strategy is playing out nicely in this environment, and we are raising our full year revenue and earnings guidance.

謝謝，道格。我們第二季的業績非常出色，超越了我們對住宅建築交付收入、調整後毛利率、SG&A 和收益的指導。我們的策略在這種環境下發揮得很好，我們正在提高全年收入和盈利指導。

In the quarter, we delivered 2,641 homes and generated homebuilding revenues of $2.65 billion, both up by approximately 6% compared to last year and both second quarter records. The average price of homes delivered in the quarter was approximately $1 million. At the midpoint, we delivered 191 more homes in our guidance or $185 million of home sales revenue.

本季度，我們交付了 2,641 套住宅，住宅建築收入達 26.5 億美元，與去年和第二季度的記錄相比均增長約 6%。本季交付的房屋平均價格約為 100 萬美元。中期，我們按照指導方針交付了 191 套房屋，即房屋銷售收入 1.85 億美元。

We signed 3,041 net agreements for $2.94 billion in the quarter, up 30% units and 29% in dollars compared to the second quarter of fiscal year 2023. Both agreements and dollars were up over last year in every one of our geographic regions. The average price of contracts signed in the quarter was approximately $967,000, down about 1% compared to last year and down 4.4% sequentially. This decline was due to product and geographic mix changes, driven by our strategy of expanding our price points and building more spec homes, which we expect will lead to a continued modest drop in price over the next few quarters, but also revenue and earnings growth.

本季我們簽署了3,041 份淨協議，總金額為29.4 億美元，與2023 財年第二季相比，單位數量增加了30%，美元增加了29%。金額都比去年有所增長。本季簽訂的合約平均價格約為96.7萬美元，比去年下降約1%，比上一季下降4.4%。這種下降是由於產品和地理組合的變化，這是由我們擴大價格點和建造更多規格住宅的策略推動的，我們預計這將導致未來幾個季度價格持續小幅下降，但也會導致收入和獲利成長。

Our second quarter adjusted gross margin was 28.2% and compared to 28.3% in the second quarter of 2023 and 60 basis points better than guidance. Our Q2 gross margin exceeded our guidance, primarily due to strong cost control and increased leverage from higher-than-projected revenues. Positive mix versus projection also played a role, but to a smaller extent.

我們第二季調整後的毛利率為 28.2%，而 2023 年第二季為 28.3%，比指引高 60 個基點。我們第二季的毛利率超出了我們的指導，這主要是由於強有力的成本控制以及高於預期的收入所帶來的槓桿作用的增加。積極的組合與投射也發揮了作用，但程度較小。

While we continue to project the full year adjusted gross margin of 28%, we have increased our revenue guidance by approximately $500 million at the midpoint and improved our SG&A guidance by 20 basis points. For the third quarter, we project an adjusted gross margin of 27.7%, implying a fourth quarter gross margin of 27.4%.

雖然我們繼續預期全年調整後毛利率為 28%，但我們已將營收指引中位數提高了約 5 億美元，並將 SG&A 指引提高了 20 個基點。對於第三季度，我們預計調整後毛利率為 27.7%，這意味著第四季度毛利率為 27.4%。

As Doug mentioned, 54% of the homes sold in the second quarter were specs and we now expect more than half our deliveries in our second half to be specs. Having more spec homes available for delivery in the late summer and early fall, we expect will allow us to meet the demand from many of our buyers who want to move in when schools open. Our spec homes generally carry a lower margin compared to our build-to-order homes. In the second quarter, the adjusted gross margin for our spec homes delivered was 26.1% compared to 29.8% for build-to-order homes delivered.

正如 Doug 所提到的，第二季售出的房屋中有 54% 是規格房，我們現在預計下半年交付的房屋中有一半以上是規格房。我們預計，在夏末秋初將有更多規格房屋可供交付，這將使我們能夠滿足許多想要在學校開學時搬入的買家的需求。與按訂單建造的房屋相比，我們的規格房屋的利潤率通常較低。第二季度，我們交付的規格住宅的調整後毛利率為 26.1%，而按單交付的住宅調整後毛利率為 29.8%。

We typically build spec homes on lower premium home sites, saving higher premium sites for our build-to-order customers who place a higher value on them and who also spend more on upgrades. We also tend to offer higher incentives on completed spec homes. But the advantage to our spec business is that we can build faster with margins that are still strong and we are able to meet the demand from buyers who want to move in sooner. We believe this is the right strategy that we can achieve overall gross margins in the high 20% range while we grow the business better, improve operating margin, generate strong cash flow and achieve consistently high returns on equity.

我們通常在較低溢價的住宅網站上建造規格住宅，為我們的按單生產客戶保留較高溢價的網站，這些客戶對這些網站的價值更高，並且在升級上花費更多。我們也傾向於對已完工的規格住宅提供更高的獎勵。但我們規格業務的優勢在於，我們可以更快地建設，利潤仍然強勁，並且我們能夠滿足想要更快入住的買家的需求。我們相信這是正確的策略，我們可以實現 20% 以上的整體毛利率，同時更好地發展業務、提高營業利潤率、產生強勁的現金流並實現持續的高股本回報率。

Turning back to the P&L statement. Write-offs in our home sales gross margin totaled $28.4 million in the quarter as compared to $11.1 million in the second quarter of 2023. SG&A as a percentage of revenue was 9.0% in the second quarter compared to 9.1% in the same quarter 1 year ago. And this was 70 basis points better than guidance. Again, reflecting our focus on cost controls and leverage from higher-than-expected home sales revenue.

回到損益表。本季房屋銷售毛利率沖銷總額為 2,840 萬美元，而 2023 年第二季為 1,110 萬美元。 。這比指導值高出 70 個基點。再次反映出我們對成本控制的關注以及對高於預期的房屋銷售收入的槓桿作用。

Year-over-year total G&A dollars were essentially flat despite healthy increases in community count, settlements and agreements and the impact of overall cost inflation. We continue to focus intently on ways to increase productivity and operate more efficiently.

儘管社區數量、和解和協議以及總體成本通膨的影響健康成長，但 G&A 總額比去年同期基本持平。我們繼續專注於提高生產力和更有效率的營運方法。

Second quarter JV land sales and other income was $204 million versus approximately $1 million in the same quarter last year. As Doug mentioned, approximately $175 million of this was attributable to the gain we recognized on the sale of land to a data center developer. The remaining approximately $30 million was primarily attributable to increased interest income and a $21 million gain on the sale of an apartment living asset. JV land sales and other income also included $5 million of predevelopment write-offs in the Apartment Living business as we decided not to pursue certain deals in the current capital constrained environment for multifamily.

第二季合資企業土地銷售和其他收入為 2.04 億美元，而去年同期約為 100 萬美元。正如 Doug 所提到的，其中約 1.75 億美元來自我們向資料中心開發商出售土地所獲得的收益。剩餘的約 3000 萬美元主要歸因於利息收入的增加以及出售公寓生活資產的 2,100 萬美元收益。合資企業土地銷售和其他收入還包括公寓生活業務中 500 萬美元的開發前沖銷，因為我們決定在當前多戶家庭資本緊張的環境下不進行某些交易。

Our tax rate in the second quarter was approximately 25.9%, basically in line with our guidance of 25.8%. We ended the second quarter with over $2.7 billion of liquidity, including approximately $1 billion of cash and $1.7 billion of availability under our revolving bank credit facility. Our net debt to capital ratio was 18.7% at second quarter end. We have no significant maturities of our long-term debt until fiscal 2026, when $350 million of notes come due in November of 2025.

我們第二季的稅率約為25.9%，基本上符合我們25.8%的指引。截至第二季末，我們擁有超過 27 億美元的流動資金，其中包括約 10 億美元的現金和循環銀行信貸安排下的 17 億美元的可用資金。第二季末我們的淨負債與資本比率為 18.7%。在 2026 財年之前，我們的長期債務不會到期，屆時 3.5 億美元的票據將於 2025 年 11 月到期。

Our community count at quarter end was 386 compared to our guide of 385. We expect 400 at the end of the third quarter and reaffirm 410 by the end of the fiscal year. We are projecting fiscal 2024 third quarter deliveries of 2,750 to 2,850 homes with an average delivered price between $950,000 and $960,000. For full fiscal year 2024, we are increasing our projected deliveries to be between 10,400 and 10,800 homes with an average price between $960,000 and $970,000. These are increases of 350 homes and $15,000 per home at the midpoint, representing approximately $500 million in additional revenue. We expect interest and cost of sales to be approximately 1.3% in the third quarter and for the full year.

截至季末，我們的社區數量為 386 個，而我們的指導值為 385 個。 我們預計第三季末的社區數量將達到 400 個，並重申到本財年末將達到 410 個。我們預計 2024 財年第三季將交付 2,750 至 2,850 套房屋，平均交貨價格在 950,000 美元至 960,000 美元之間。在 2024 年整個財年，我們將預計交付量增加到 10,400 至 10,800 套房屋，平均價格在 960,000 美元至 970,000 美元之間。其中增加了 350 套房屋，每套房屋增加了 15,000 美元，相當於增加了約 5 億美元的額外收入。我們預計第三季和全年的利息和銷售成本約為 1.3%。

Third quarter SG&A as a percentage of home sales revenues is expected to be approximately 9.2%. For the full year, we expect it to be 9.6% an improvement of 20 basis points compared to our previous guidance. Other income, income from unconsolidated entities and land sales gross profit in the third quarter is expected to break even. We continue to project $260 million for the full year.

第三季SG&A佔房屋銷售收入的百分比預計約為9.2%。對於全年，我們預計為 9.6%，比我們先前的指導提高 20 個基點。第三季其他收入、未合併實體收入和土地銷售毛利預計將達到損益兩平。我們繼續預計全年預算為 2.6 億美元。

Less of the remaining $48 million of full year joint venture land sale and other income is projected to come from sales of our interest in certain stabilized apartment community developed by Toll Brothers Apartment Living, in joint venture with various partners.

在全年合資土地銷售和其他收入剩餘的 4,800 萬美元中，預計將有少量來自我們與多個合作夥伴合資開發的 Toll Brothers Apartment Living 開發的某些穩定公寓社區的權益。

We project the third quarter tax rate to be approximately 26% and the full year rate to be approximately 25.5%. Our weighted average share count is expected to be approximately 105 million for the third quarter and for the full year. This assumes we repurchased $500 million of common stock in the year or another $320 million in the second half of the year on top of the $180 million we repurchased in the first half.

我們預計第三季稅率約為26%，全年稅率約為25.5%。我們第三季和全年的加權平均股票數量預計約為 1.05 億股。假設我們今年回購了 5 億美元的普通股，或在上半年回購了 1.8 億美元的基礎上，下半年又回購了 3.2 億美元。

As Doug mentioned, with our updated guidance, we now expect to earn approximately $14 per diluted share in fiscal 2024 with an operating margin over 18%. This would result in a full year return on beginning equity of approximately 22% and would put our year-end book value per share at approximately $76.5.

正如 Doug 所提到的，根據我們更新的指引，我們現在預計 2024 財年稀釋後每股收益約為 14 美元，營業利潤率超過 18%。這將導致全年期初股本回報率約為 22%，並使我們的年末每股帳面價值約為 76.5 美元。

Now let me turn it back to Doug.

現在讓我把它轉回給道格。

Thank you, Marty. Before I begin to open it up for questions, I'd like to thank all of our Toll Brothers' employees for a great first half of 2024. I'm so proud of your dedication, hard work and commitment to our customers, which are key drivers to our long-term success.

謝謝你，馬蒂。在開始提問之前，我要感謝 Toll Brothers 的所有員工，感謝你們在 2024 年上半年度過了美好的時光。的關鍵驅動力。

I'd also like to announce that beginning in June, Gregg Ziegler will be assuming additional responsibilities as Head of Investor Relations. Gregg should be a familiar name to all of you. He has been with the company for over 20 years and is our Senior VP and Treasurer. He will be taking the reins from Fred Cooper, who has been our distinguished Head of IR since he joined the company over 30 years ago in 1993.

我還想宣布，從 6 月開始，Gregg Ziegler 將承擔投資者關係主管的額外職責。 Gregg對大家來說應該是個熟悉的名字。他在公司工作 20 多年，擔任我們的高級副總裁兼財務主管。他將從 Fred Cooper 手中接過領導權，Fred Cooper 自 1993 年加入公司 30 多年來一直擔任我們傑出的 IR 主管。

Fred is transitioning to the new role of Senior VP of Strategic Partnerships. We are excited that we will be able to continue to benefit from Fred's wisdom, while he concentrates on developing and expanding the many relationships he has helped foster with our debt, equity and other partners over the years. Congratulations to both Gregg and Fred.

弗雷德 (Fred) 即將調任策略夥伴資深副總裁這一新職位。我們很高興我們將能夠繼續受益於弗雷德的智慧，而他則專注於發展和擴大他多年來幫助我們與我們的債務、股權和其他合作夥伴建立的許多關係。祝賀格雷格和弗雷德。

Now let's open it up to your questions. Rocco?

現在讓我們來解答您的問題。羅科？

(Operator Instructions) Today's first question comes from Stephen Kim with Evercore ISI.

（操作員說明）今天的第一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Stephen Kim。

Appreciate all the color as always. Congrats to Gregg and Fred and to the rest of the team. I wanted to ask a couple of questions related to, I guess, your growth and your margins. Let's start with the margins.

一如既往地欣賞所有的顏色。恭喜格雷格和弗雷德以及團隊的其他成員。我想問幾個與您的成長和利潤相關的問題。讓我們從邊距開始。

You mentioned in your opening remarks that the spec homes that you build tend to be built on home sites with lower lot premiums, I think you said. And as a result, the gross margin somewhat lower as well as the fact that you also will incentivize them sometimes more. But I was wondering if you could disaggregate that for us because if you're building homes these specs on home sites with lower lot premiums, even if you didn't build them on a spec basis, they would probably still generate a somewhat lower margin is what I'm thinking. So curious how much is spec building for you actually driving a lower margin on an apples-to-apples basis, do you think taking out that issue?

您在開場白中提到，您建造的規格住宅往往建在地塊溢價較低的住宅用地上，我想您說過。結果，毛利率有所下降，有時你也會更多地激勵他們。但我想知道你是否可以為我們分解這一點，因為如果你在地塊溢價較低的住宅場地上建造這些規格的房屋，即使你沒有在規格的基礎上建造它們，它們可能仍然會產生稍低的利潤這就是我的想法。很好奇，您的規格建設實際上在同類基礎上降低了利潤率，您認為解決這個問題嗎？

Yes. So let me start at the beginning of your question and just take you through the business model. So right now, we're running at about 50% spec as we've talked about. I think long term, particularly if rates come down and the resale markets open up a bit, we've kind of targeted 40% or 50% as a long-term appropriate business model for the percent that will be spec.

是的。因此，讓我從你的問題開始，帶你了解商業模式。所以現在，正如我們所討論的，我們正在以大約 50% 的規格運行。我認為從長遠來看，特別是如果利率下降並且轉售市場稍微開放的話，我們的目標是 40% 或 50%，作為規範百分比的長期合適的商業模式。

We define a spec as a foundation in the ground. It's a little earlier than many other builders. We sell about 1/3 of our spec, up until when the house is framed. We sell another 1/3 of the spec between framing and when the finishes go in, and then the final 1/3 of the specs we sell when they are completed. The higher incentive tends to be on the completed specs. We are not incentivizing nearly as much. In fact, it's quite similar to the build-to-order incentive when the home is sold either as it's been framed or between drywall and the finishes. And we think that's a good business model because there's a lot of people [who] want to move in sooner, and we now have the inventory for them.

我們將規範定義為基礎。它比許多其他建築商要早一些。我們出售了大約 1/3 的規格，直到房子框架完成。我們在框架和飾面進入之間出售另外 1/3 的規格，然後在完成後我們出售最後 1/3 的規格。更高的激勵往往是在已完成的規格上。我們的激勵措施卻沒有那麼多。事實上，這與按訂單建造的激勵措施非常相似，即當房屋以框架形式或在乾牆和飾面之間出售時。我們認為這是一個很好的商業模式，因為有很多人想早點搬進來，而我們現在為他們準備了庫存。

We also strategically plan when we start spec thinking about when they will be completed and when the buyers want the house. So there are more specs that get started in time to be completed in the summer and early fall months because we know many buyers, particularly those with kids, and most of our buyers have kids want to move into the summer and the early fall as schools are opening.

當我們開始考慮規格時，我們還會進行策略性計劃，考慮它們何時完成以及買家何時想要房子。因此，有更多的規格需要在夏季和初秋月份及時開始完成，因為我們知道很多買家，特別是那些有孩子的買家，而且我們的大多數買家都有孩子想要進入夏季和初秋上學正在開放。

So that's all part of the strategy. And so we've always expected and we discussed that we will be a bit more spec-heavy in the second half of the year than in the first half in terms of deliveries. And those homes have a little bit lower margin. The reason they have a lower margin is because of 3 things. One, we tend to build them on the generic lot, the less valuable lot. So spec may carry -- an average spec may carry a lot premium of $25,000 where the build-to-order business has a lot premium of [$50,000] or higher.

這就是戰略的一部分。因此，我們一直預計並且我們討論過，在交付方面，下半年我們的規格將比上半年多一些。這些房屋的利潤率稍低。他們的利潤率較低的原因有三點。第一，我們傾向於在普通地段（價值較低的地段）上建造它們。因此，規格可能會帶來 25,000 美元的溢價，而按訂單生產業務的溢價可能會達到 [50,000 美元] 或更高。

We also [put] less in the house in terms of upgrades. And as you know, our upgrade business through our design studio is accretive to margin. We get about a 40% margin out of the design studio. But we're cautious. We don't want to overload a spec and be outside or above the market. So that is part of the strategy. And then the third reason is that the house gets to completion, we do incentivize it a bit more.

在升級方面，我們也減少了房屋的投入。如您所知，我們透過設計工作室進行的升級業務可以增加利潤。我們從設計工作室獲得了大約 40% 的利潤。但我們很謹慎。我們不想超載規格並超出市場或高於市場。這是戰略的一部分。第三個原因是房子即將竣工，我們確實會給予更多的誘因。

We have built in, we think, very conservative incentives for the balance of homes, we need specs that we need to sell and still deliver by October. And there's about 6,000 deliveries between now and the end of the year, half of, call it, 11,000 plus or minus. And about 1/4 of those or 1,500 are unsold specs that are being constructed right now. Some will sell in the next few months with modest incentive, but some may be sold when they're completed late in the summer, and we are budgeting for a higher incentive. We don't know where that incentive will be. It could be higher than our budget, it could be lower than our budget.

我們認為，我們已經為平衡房屋建立了非常保守的激勵措施，我們需要在 10 月之前出售並交付的規格。從現在到今年年底，交付量約為 6,000 份，其中一半，可以說是 11,000 份上下。其中約 1/4（即 1,500 個）是目前正在建造的未售出規格。有些將在接下來的幾個月內以適度的激勵措施出售，但有些可能會在夏末完工時出售，我們正在為更高的激勵措施制定預算。我們不知道激勵在哪裡。它可能高於我們的預算，也可能低於我們的預算。

We are encouraged by the start to May, which been very strong. We are encouraged by rates coming down. So we are certainly hopeful that we won't use all the incentivized -- or all the budgeted incentive but we'll just have to see how that plays out.

五月的開局非常強勁，令我們深受鼓舞。我們對利率下降感到鼓舞。因此，我們當然希望我們不會使用所有激勵措施或所有預算激勵措施，但我們只需要看看效果如何。

As to your main question, which is aren't we just substituting a spec home with the same margin as a build-to-order? Not quite because I think we are being more conservative than the market would be when they step up and they get to the design studio and they all fall in love with all the finishes, and they put more into the house than we are putting in because we want to make sure we sell that spec and we don't overdo it. So it's a fair point.

至於你的主要問題，我們不只是用與按訂單生產相同利潤的規格住宅來代替嗎？不完全是因為我認為我們比市場更保守，當他們站出來，他們到達設計工作室，他們都愛上了所有的飾面，他們在房子裡投入的比我們投入的更多，因為我們希望確保我們銷售該規格並且不會做得太過分。所以這是一個公平的觀點。

There is certainly lower margin, and lower lot premium lots because the lot premium is 100% margin, and there's lower margin when you put less upgrades in a home because of the accretive nature of the upgrade business. But I think our spec strategy is to be a bit more conservative than the client buying a build-to-order on that lot.

肯定會有較低的利潤和較低的地塊溢價，因為地段溢價是 100% 的利潤，並且由於升級業務的增值性質，當您對房屋進行較少的升級時，利潤會較低。但我認為我們的規格策略比客戶購買該批次的按訂單生產更加保守。

Great. Yes. So I mean, what I'm hearing from you is that the apples-to-apples, it's probably less than the 200 to 250 basis point lower gross margin versus BTO that you've talked about on a pure apples-to-apples basis, but it is still lower for sure. That's probably a fair way to say.

偉大的。是的。所以我的意思是，我從您那裡聽到的是，在同類比較中，它的毛利率可能比您在純同類比較基礎上談論的 BTO 低 200 到 250 個基點要低，但肯定還是更低。這可能是個公平的說法。

Okay. Good. All right. So second question relates to the M&A landscape. I'm curious if you could give us your assessment of the M&A landscape, specifically as it relates to Toll Brothers and your growth plans. How it fits in. We're hearing that private builders are finding it tougher and tougher to compete with the likes of public such as yourself. But also the pool of prospective buyers is pretty robust right now, particularly with the Japanese interest.

好的。好的。好的。第二個問題與併購格局有關。我很好奇您能否向我們提供您對併購情勢的評估，特別是與 Toll Brothers 和您的成長計畫相關的評估。它如何適應。但目前潛在買家的數量也相當強勁，尤其是日本人的興趣。

And at the same time, you have been talking about moving land light and having that be an integral part of your strategy going forward. So with all of those 3 major pieces, I'm curious if you could give us your general assessment of the M&A landscape. How interested are you in tapping the M&A pool to grow geographically or grow across different price points and things of that nature?

同時，您一直在談論移動地面照明，並將其作為您未來策略的一個組成部分。因此，對於這三個主要部分，我很好奇您是否能為我們提供併購前景的整體評估。您對利用併購池實現地理成長或跨不同價位和類似性質的成長的興趣有多大？

Sure. So what we're actually seeing more from the smaller builders who are facing some capital crunch is land deals that they have tied up, they process approvals on. They thought about building homes on. They're having a hard time finding the regional bank to finance them. And while they can't make a full profit they would have made had they built homes, they can make a fair profit by flipping the land to us. And so we're seeing quite a few deals like that out of the smaller, more local and regional builders.

當然。因此，我們實際上從面臨資本緊縮的小型建築商那裡看到更多的是他們已經捆綁的土地交易，他們正在處理審批。他們考慮在上面建造房屋。他們很難找到地區銀行來為他們提供融資。雖然他們無法獲得建造房屋時所能獲得的全部利潤，但他們可以透過將土地轉讓給我們來獲得公平的利潤。因此，我們看到不少規模較小、更本地化和區域性的建築商進行了類似的交易。

In terms of M&A, it's very active. There's a lot of deals out there. We're in action. We look at every deal. We have a seasoned team that's dedicated to M&A. That's all they do. There's nothing to report. Frankly, there's nothing that's exciting to us. We're really happy with the geographic footprint. We're really happy. There's very few new markets we're looking at. We're growing this company by getting bigger with wider price ranges in the markets we're in, where we know we're underserving most of the markets we are in. You pay a premium to buy a builder.

在併購方面，非常活躍。那裡有很多優惠。我們正在行動。我們關注每筆交易。我們擁有一支經驗豐富的團隊，致力於併購。這就是他們所做的一切。沒有什麼好報告的。坦白說，沒有什麼能讓我們興奮的。我們對地理足跡非常滿意。我們真的很高興。我們關注的新市場很少。我們正在透過在我們所在的市場中以更廣泛的價格範圍擴大規模來發展這家公司，我們知道我們對我們所在的大多數市場的服務不足。

It's a lot harder to pay that premium when you're in a market with a brand, with employees, with land, with contractors, with realtor relations and your cooking. You pay that premium when you want to enter a new market. We did it 15x in this company over the years as we are on a geographic growth mode.

當你身處一個有品牌、有員工、有土地、有承包商、有房地產經紀人關係和你的烹飪的市場時，支付這筆溢價要困難得多。當您想進入新市場時，您需要支付溢價。多年來，我們在這家公司做到了 15 倍，因為我們處於地理成長模式。

But right now, we love the footprint. We're getting bigger where we are. It doesn't mean M&A is off the table but it's going to be much harder to pencil and we're going to be more careful.

但現在，我們喜歡這個足跡。我們正在變得更大。這並不意味著併購不再被考慮，但它會變得更加困難，我們會更加小心。

And our next question today comes from John Lovallo with UBS.

今天我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的約翰‧洛瓦洛。

The first one, and I may have misheard this, so please correct me if I'm wrong. But I think you may have talked about gross margin settling in the kind of the 27% to 28% range. And if so, I'm just curious kind of what's contemplated in this. Spec expect deliveries increase here, lot prices are going up. What are sort of the positive offsets from the fiscal fourth quarter exit rate of, call it 27.4%?

第一個，可能是我聽錯了，有錯誤請指正。但我認為您可能已經談到毛利率穩定在 27% 到 28% 的範圍內。如果是這樣，我只是好奇其中的設想。規格預計這裡的交貨量會增加，批次價格也會上漲。第四財季 27.4% 的退出率有哪些正面的抵銷作用？

Yes, John, I think it's -- that range we're comfortable with the 27% to 28% long term. We think is the right range for our business model. Remember, we're building out this faster. Our SG&A is coming down. So I don't lose sight of the operating margin, which is going up even with the gross margin in that range. And that's, obviously, very important to us. We've been on this strategy of widening price point coming down with more affordable luxury, focusing on the affluent first-time millennial, doing more and more active adults, building more spec, particularly at some of the lower price points. That strategy has now been with us for several years. It's pretty much fully implemented.

是的，約翰，我認為這是——從長遠來看，我們對 27% 到 28% 的範圍感到滿意。我們認為這是適合我們商業模式的範圍。請記住，我們正在更快地建立它。我們的銷售及管理費用（SG&A）正在下降。因此，我不會忽視營業利潤率，即使毛利率在這個範圍內，營業利潤率仍在上升。顯然，這對我們來說非常重要。我們一直採取的策略是擴大價格點，推出更實惠的奢侈品，專注於富裕的首次千禧世代，做越來越活躍的成年人，建立更多的規格，特別是在一些較低的價格點。這一策略已經伴隨我們好幾年了。它幾乎已經完全實現了。

So while we think average delivered price may come down a little bit more, we think it's going to settle in the low 900s. We think gross margin should settle in the 27% to 28% range. And we're just very comfortable with that business model. The spec business is allowing us to capture a bigger part of the market, not just in terms of price but in terms of buyers that want to move in faster. And it's giving us opportunity to build houses faster. And so when we combine that at a slightly lower margin with the build-to-order business that is still driving very high margins for all the reasons we are giving, we think that allows more growth.

因此，雖然我們認為平均交貨價格可能會進一步下降，但最終會穩定在 900 美元左右。我們認為毛利率應該穩定在 27% 至 28% 的範圍內。我們對這種商業模式非常滿意。規格業務使我們能夠佔領更大的市場份額，不僅在價格方面，而且在想要更快進入的買家方面。它讓我們有機會更快地建造房屋。因此，當我們將利潤率略低的業務與按訂單生產業務結合起來時，由於我們給出的所有原因，按訂單生產業務仍然推動著非常高的利潤率，我們認為這會帶來更多增長。

And John, gross margin is obviously a very key metric for us. But we can't ignore the fact that we're trying to generate high return on equity. And if -- there is a balance between gross margin and revenue growth. We'll work that balance.

約翰，毛利率顯然對我們來說是一個非常關鍵的指標。但我們不能忽視這樣一個事實：我們正在努力創造高股本回報率。如果——毛利率和收入成長之間存在平衡。我們將努力實現這種平衡。

An example is a land banking arrangement where the cost of that land ultimately is a bit higher thus putting a bit of downside pressure on gross margin for that community, but it allows us to grow revenue and have more capital to allocate to new deals, buybacks, debt repurchase, dividends, et cetera. So it's a balancing act, and I think we've done a nice job of balancing here as we've been able to continue to maintain pretty high industry-leading gross margins while also generating very strong return on equity.

一個例子是土地儲備安排，其中土地的成本最終會稍高一些，從而對該社區的毛利率造成一定的下行壓力，但它使我們能夠增加收入，並有更多的資本分配給新交易、回購、負債回購、股利等。所以這是一個平衡的行為，我認為我們在平衡方面做得很好，因為我們能夠繼續保持行業領先的相當高的毛利率，同時也產生非常強勁的股本回報率。

Okay. That's helpful. And then maybe just sticking on the cost side, which was very strong in the quarter. I mean, SG&A as a percentage of sales, I think, is expected to tick up about 20 basis points quarter-over-quarter, despite the slightly higher revenue. What's driving sort of the uptick here in SG&A? And how should we sort of think about that as we move forward?

好的。這很有幫助。然後也許只是堅持成本方面，本季成本方面非常強勁。我的意思是，儘管收入略有增加，但我認為 SG&A 佔銷售額的百分比預計將環比上升約 20 個基點。 SG&A 上升的推動因素是什麼？當我們前進時，我們應該如何思考這個問題？

Yes. Some of it is just the inflationary pressures. Some of it's incentives on some of our spec homes that are given to the brokerage community, and we'd see more brokers involved in the spec home sales than we do in the build-to-order sales. So there's additional costs in marketing right now. And I think that's the basis.

是的。其中一些只是通膨壓力。其中一些是對我們的一些規格房屋的激勵措施，這些措施是給予經紀界的，我們會看到更多的經紀人參與規格房屋的銷售，而不是按訂單生產的銷售。所以現在行銷方面有額外的成本。我認為這就是基礎。

We also have quite a few communities that we'll be opening in the second half of the year. There's always upfront community opening costs that where communities have not yet generated revenue. And so I think part of it, Marty, is that also. Absolutely.

我們還有很多社區將在下半年開放。在社區尚未產生收入的情況下，總是存在著前期社區開放成本。馬蒂，我認為這也是其中的一部分。絕對地。

And our next question today comes from Alan Ratner with Zelman & Associates.

今天我們的下一個問題來自 Zelman & Associates 的 Alan Ratner。

Congrats on a great quarter and thanks for all the helpful color so far. First question, Doug. I was listening to your comments on some of the market commentary there. And I think one market you left out was Florida. And I know we've seen, at least, in some of the markets in Florida, some pretty decent increases in resale inventory off of the trough levels of late.

恭喜您度過了一個出色的季度，並感謝迄今為止所有有用的顏色。第一個問題，道格。我正在聽你對那裡的一些市場評論的評論。我認為您遺漏的一個市場是佛羅裡達州。我知道，至少在佛羅裡達州的一些市場上，轉售庫存比最近的低谷水平有了相當可觀的成長。

So I'm curious specific to Florida, but I guess, across your entire footprint in areas where resale inventory has begin to inflect higher. How is that impacting your business? Are you seeing the need for additional incentives? Are you seeing absorption slow at all? Just talk to that trend would be great.

因此，我對佛羅裡達州的具體情況感到好奇，但我想，在您的整個足跡中，轉售庫存已經開始走高。這對您的業務有何影響？您是否認為需要額外的激勵措施？您是否發現吸收速度很慢？只要談談這個趨勢就太好了。

Sure. Every one of our markets in Florida is in the top half of our list on rating performance. I didn't highlight Florida in my opening comments because they are not top 5 markets at the moment, and I tried to limit my comments to the best of the best. Florida East, which is small for us called the Fort Lauderdale to Vero Beach corridor is very good. We are encouraged because May has been very strong throughout Florida. We are keeping an eye on inventory. It has increased modestly in some of our markets. Jacksonville, Orlando as 2 examples. But we don't see it impacting our business.

當然。我們佛羅裡達州的每個市場的評級表現都位於我們名單的上半部分。我在開場白中沒有強調佛羅裡達州，因為它們目前還不是前 5 名的市場，而且我試圖將我的評論限制在最好的市場中。佛羅裡達東部，對我們來說很小，稱為勞德代爾堡至維羅海灘走廊，非常好。我們很受鼓舞，因為五月整個佛羅裡達州的天氣都非常強勁。我們正在密切關注庫存。在我們的一些市場中，這一數字略有增加。傑克遜維爾、奧蘭多就是兩個例子。但我們認為這不會影響我們的業務。

So I would grade Florida a B+. I wouldn't give it an A, but I wouldn't give it a B-. I think it's a solid good market, and we're going to keep growing down there. And like I said, the last 3 weeks have been very good. So no worries about what's going on down in the Sunshine State.

所以我會給佛羅裡達評級為 B+。我不會給它 A，但我不會給它 B-。我認為這是一個堅實的良好市場，我們將在那裡繼續成長。就像我說的，過去三週非常好。所以不用擔心陽光之州發生的事。

Got it. I appreciate that, that info there. Second, on kind of the NAR settlement and I guess more broadly, your relationship with the brokerage community right now. Can you talk to how you view the relationship there? What percentage of your transactions are used in a co-broke? Do you think of that brokerage community as a vehicle to attract more traffic? Do you kind of flex commission rates there to any extent? And where do you see that going forward post settlement?

知道了。我很欣賞那裡的訊息。其次，關於 NAR 和解的問題，我想更廣泛地說，您現在與經紀界的關係。您能談談您如何看待那裡的關係嗎？您的交易中有多少百分比是用於共同破產？您認為經紀社群是吸引更多流量的工具嗎？你們是否有一定程度的彈性佣金率？您認為和解後的進展如何？

Sure. So about 65% of our sales involve a realtor, a broker. The brokerage community is very important to Toll Brothers. We take great care of them. We market to them regularly. I think they like coming -- bringing their clients to our communities. The business is changing. Co-ops are coming down industry-wide. We're just beginning to see it. We're not going to be a leader. We're going to be a follower.

當然。因此，我們大約 65% 的銷售額涉及房地產經紀人、經紀人。經紀社區對 Toll Brothers 來說非常重要。我們非常照顧他們。我們定期向他們推銷。我認為他們喜歡來——把他們的客戶帶到我們的社區。業務正在改變。整個產業的合作社正在減少。我們才剛開始看到它。我們不會成為領導者。我們將成為追隨者。

But we are already bringing brokerage commissions down in many markets around the country. We think that will continue, but we will not be an outlier. Right now, the brokerage commission for us around the country is in the range of 2% to 2.5%. And it was 2.5% to 3%. There are some markets that are going to flat fee. I think the industry, you're going to see more and more builders moving to flat fee and getting away from a percentage. So it's very fluid, but it is definitely a tailwind on the S component of SG&A, and we're just in the early stages.

但我們已經降低了全國許多市場的經紀佣金。我們認為這種情況將會持續下去，但我們不會成為局外人。目前我們在全國的經紀佣金在2%到2.5%之間。是2.5%到3%。有些市場將實施固定費用。我認為在這個行業中，你會看到越來越多的建築商轉向固定費用並擺脫百分比。所以它非常流暢，但它絕對是 SG&A 的 S 部分的順風車，而我們正處於早期階段。

And our next question today comes from Mike Dahl with RBC Capital Markets.

今天我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的麥克達爾。

Congrats to Gregg and Fred. Just back on the gross margin in the near term. I mean the margin performance has been exceptional. So that notwithstanding, I think if -- we if we look at the trajectory that's implied, you beat the second quarter, held the guide, so there's a (inaudible) slightly weaker. Doug, everything you're saying sounds on balance, more positive. We've seen the same pricing trends you're alluding to, in terms of pretty broad increases that you've implemented.

恭喜格雷格和弗雷德。毛利率將在短期內恢復。我的意思是利潤率表現非常出色。因此，儘管如此，我認為如果——我們看看暗示的軌跡，你擊敗了第二節，保持了領先，所以（聽不清楚）稍微弱一些。道格，你所說的一切聽起來都很平衡，更積極。我們已經看到了您所提到的相同的定價趨勢，即您實施的相當廣泛的上漲。

The spec closing mix has already been elevated as you talked about in the 2Q level. So a little increase spec wouldn't seem like it's going to move the needle that much on margins. So maybe just help us bridge the gap a little bit more. I'm just kind of after such a strong 2Q performance, why the back half margins would still trend down, call it, like 80 basis points, 70 basis points by the time you get to 4Q versus 2Q?

正如您在第二季度談到的那樣，規格收盤組合已經有所提高。因此，稍微增加規格似乎不會對利潤造成太大影響。所以也許只是幫我們彌補一點差距。我只是在經歷瞭如此強勁的第二季表現之後，為什麼到第四季與第二季相比，後半段利潤率仍會下降，例如 80 個基點、70 個基點？

Thanks, Mike. As Doug kind of hinted at, we forecast approximately 4,500 homes in backlog to deliver in our second half, along with another 1,500 unsold generally low-margin spec homes. Remember, a large number of those 4,500 backlog homes are also specs that have been sold and then have not yet been completed and delivered. The spec deliveries in our second half will far exceed 50% of total deliveries. And as we've said, they generally carry low margins.

謝謝，麥克。正如 Doug 所暗示的那樣，我們預計下半年將交付約 4,500 套積壓房屋，另外還有 1,500 套未售出的低利潤規格房屋。請記住，這 4,500 套積壓房屋中的大量也是已售出但尚未完工和交付的規格。我們下半年的規格交付量將遠超過總交付量的50%。正如我們所說，它們的利潤率通常較低。

So despite some recent margin beats as we look at those 4,500 homes, the concentration of specs in them, the initial 1,500 specs still to be sold, we feel prudent to hold our gross margin guidance at 28% for the full year.

因此，儘管最近我們看到這 4,500 套房屋的利潤率超出了預期，其中規格集中，最初的 1,500 套規格仍有待出售，但我們仍謹慎地將全年毛利率指引維持在 28%。

And then just as a point of clarity, Marty. Does that assume -- I know you said it baked in kind of higher incentives on specs. So does that assume that the spec gross margin will be lower in the second half than it was the first half?

然後，為了澄清一點，馬蒂。這是假設嗎——我知道你說過它在規格上有更高的動機。那麼，這是否假設下半年規格毛利率將低於上半年？

And then my follow-up question is when you think about that long-term gross margin guide, you've obviously tightened up your kind of algorithm for thinking about the total margin and return that allows you to underwrite a deal? It still seems like you're finding success getting to that high 20s margin on new deals, which is a little bit surprising given the amount of capital out there chasing land.

然後我的後續問題是，當您考慮長期毛利率指南時，您顯然已經收緊了用於考慮允許您承保交易的總利潤和回報的演算法？看起來你仍然在新交易中取得了成功，達到了 20 多美元的高利潤率，考慮到追逐土地的資本數量，這有點令人驚訝。

And so I guess just talk a little bit about that kind of ability to continue to underwrite. And as you're pushing things into land banking, ultimately, what percent of those deals are still self-developed and maybe that's still a delta that's allowing you to really capture both?

所以我想稍微談談這種繼續承保的能力。當你將事情推向土地儲備時，最終，這些交易中有多少百分比仍然是自行開發的，也許這仍然是一個三角洲，可以讓你真正捕獲兩者？

There's a lot there (inaudible) let me see how I can address that. I think our spec margin in the back half of the year is expect it to be a little bit lower than it was in the first half of the year because the first half of the year was particularly benefited with strong spec gross margin in the first quarter. And that came out of the Pacific region, where we just don't expect that to continue.

有很多（聽不清楚）讓我看看如何解決這個問題。我認為我們下半年的規格利潤率預計會比上半年略低一些，因為今年上半年特別受益於第一季強勁的規格毛利率。這種情況來自太平洋地區，我們預期這種情況不會持續下去。

As it relates to underwriting and elevated standards. You're right, we are able to find deals. There is a bit of capital out there chasing deals. But maybe not as much as you might think at our price points and at our deal size. We'll do 40 lot deals, we'll do 50 lot deals. We're advantaged compared to the smaller, less capitalized builders who we compete with for those deals.

因為它涉及承保和提高標準。你是對的，我們能夠找到優惠。有一些資本正在追逐交易。但根據我們的價格點和交易規模，可能沒有您想像的那麼多。我們將進行 40 手交易，我們將進行 50 手交易。與我們在這些交易中競爭的規模較小、資本較少的建築商相比，我們具有優勢。

And as Doug mentioned, we're actually getting a number of deals from some of the smaller, less capitalized builders as they can't close on all the deals they have out there. So we're encouraged by what we're seeing there. In terms of land banking, I think it's probably a good rule of thumb to say 25% of our deals are land bank. We continue to be encouraged by the depth and the permanence of that land banking market where they have perceived permanence of that land banking market.

正如道格所提到的，我們實際上從一些規模較小、資本較少的建築商那裡獲得了許多交易，因為他們無法完成所有的交易。因此，我們對在那裡看到的一切感到鼓舞。在土地儲備方面，我認為我們 25% 的交易是土地儲備可能是一個很好的經驗法則。我們繼續對土地儲備市場的深度和持久性感到鼓舞，他們認為土地儲備市場具有持久性。

So that number may go up. That puts a little pressure on gross margin, but as we've said before, really enhances returns and growth. Was there another question in there?

所以這個數字可能會上升。這對毛利率造成了一點壓力，但正如我們之前所說，確實提高了回報和成長。裡面還有其他問題嗎？

You got (inaudible) sustainability of margin, how you're underwriting land today.

您獲得了（聽不清楚）保證金的可持續性，以及您今天承保土地的方式。

Okay. Yes, our underwriting is rigorous, and we are not compromising margin in that underwriting. So we would expect to continue to achieve the 27% to 28% we talked about earlier.

好的。是的，我們的承保是嚴格的，我們不會在承保中犧牲利潤。因此，我們預計將繼續實現我們之前談到的 27% 至 28%。

And our next question comes from Rafe Jadrosich with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Rafe Jadrosich。

If I look at the lot count, since the beginning of 2023, it's been relatively stable, kind of in the 70,000 range. But over that time period, you've added about, I think, 70 new communities. How do you think about the level of land spend and community count growth going forward? And then when would you need to start to see lots growing to keep up your long-term growth targets? Are we talking about years or quarters? Like how long can you sustain the community count growth at this level of lot count?

如果我看一下批次數量，自 2023 年初以來，它一直相對穩定，大約在 70,000 個範圍內。但在這段時間裡，我認為您已經增加了大約 70 個新社區。您如何看待未來的土地支出水準和社區數量成長？那麼您什麼時候需要開始看到土地成長以維持您的長期成長目標？我們談論的是幾年還是幾季？例如，在這個批次數量水準上，您能維持社群數量成長多久？

So as I mentioned, we have the land controlled to grow community count in '25 and '26. And we're seeing 10 to 25 deals a week and some of those are very, very long entitlement processes, that many of them will be able to deliver houses or at least sell houses over the few years, which means the communities could open.

正如我所提到的，我們控制了土地，以在 25 年和 26 年增加社區數量。我們每週都會看到 10 到 25 筆交易，其中一些是非常非常長的授權流程，其中許多人將能夠在幾年內交付房屋或至少出售房屋，這意味著社區可以開放。

So we are on plan to grow community count 10% in '24 over '23, and we are confident we can continue that type of community count growth based on the land we control and the deal flow we see. So 70,000 lots when you're building 10,000, 11,000, 12,000, 13,000, 14,000 homes a year as we continue to grow this company, is putting us in great shape and allowing us to be diligent and conservative and careful as we continue to look at new land opportunities.

因此，我們計劃在 24 年將社區數量比 23 年增加 10%，並且我們有信心根據我們控制的土地和我們看到的交易流，我們可以繼續這種類型的社區數量增長。因此，隨著我們繼續發展這家公司，每年建造 10,000、11,000、12,000、13,000、14,000 套房屋，70,000 塊地塊使我們處於良好狀態，並允許我們在繼續關注時保持勤奮、保守和謹慎。的土地機會。

So land is about the least of my worries here. We have terrific teams. We have a great brand. Sellers want to sell to us, towns want us to build our homes in their towns. The type of deals we're seeing is widening dramatically. I talked about smaller builders selling us land. I can't tell you the number of suburban office, complexes that are half leased up, that are being sold to be torn down and redeveloped into townhomes.

所以在這裡，土地是我最不擔心的。我們有很棒的團隊。我們有一個偉大的品牌。賣家想賣給我們，城鎮希望我們在他們的城鎮建造房屋。我們看到的交易類型正在急劇擴大。我談到較小的建築商向我們出售土地。我無法告訴你有多少郊區辦公室、半出租的綜合體正在被出售以拆除並重新開發為聯排別墅。

It's all sorts of new deals that we didn't see years ago based on the nature of today's market.

根據當今市場的性質，這是我們幾年前沒有看到的各種新交易。

And new deal structures as we've encouraged our land teams to get creative and deferring payment terms. We've seen a few deals where we don't pay for the land until the home closes. And we've seen more profit participation arrangements where there might be an upfront payment for the land and then an additional payment at closing. And we're seeing more seller take back financing terms. So while we are still at this 50-50 roughly split between owned and optioned, don't be misled by that because a lot of our payments are actually happening very late for that land that we may already own and that really helps us with cash flow and it helps us with the return on equity.

以及新的交易結構，因為我們鼓勵我們的土地團隊發揮創意並推遲付款條件。我們見過一些交易，在房屋關閉之前我們不支付土地費用。我們也看到了更多的利潤參與安排，可能需要預先支付土地費用，然後在成交時支付額外費用。我們看到越來越多的賣家收回融資條款。因此，雖然我們仍然處於擁有和選擇之間大約50-50 的比例，但不要被這個誤導，因為對於我們可能已經擁有的土地，我們的許多付款實際上很晚才發生，這確實有助於我們獲得現金流動，它有助於我們提高股本回報率。

Got it. That's helpful. And then the SG&A, you mentioned early, it's been down pretty material. I think on a year-over-year basis, you're up $10 million on -- even if you pull out the land sales on $160 million of higher home sales. Can you give us more color like where you're getting the leverage and how sustainable that is going forward, if there's additional opportunity?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後，SG&A，你之前提到過，它已經下降了相當多的材料。我認為，與去年同期相比，即使您將土地銷售收入增加了 1.6 億美元，房屋銷售量也增加了 1000 萬美元。您能否向我們提供更多信息，例如您在哪裡獲得影響力以及未來的可持續性如何（如果有額外的機會）？

As I mentioned in the prepared remarks, our general and administrative dollars expanded are flat year-over-year. So S has gone up a little bit with the volume of additional revenue. and a little bit more broker usage. But the G&A for the team around this operation has been flat. And we're getting more done with the same amount of people or even less people despite community count growth. We're increasing productivity. We've completed implementation of new ERP systems, customer relationship management systems and human resource systems and we're starting to reap the benefits from some of those technological investments.

正如我在準備好的發言中提到的，我們的一般和行政支出比去年同期持平。因此，隨著額外收入的增加，S 略有上升。以及更多一點的經紀人使用。但團隊圍繞此操作的一般管理費用卻持平。儘管社區數量正在增長，但我們在相同數量的人員甚至更少的人員的情況下完成了更多的工作。我們正在提高生產力。我們已經完成了新的 ERP 系統、客戶關係管理系統和人力資源系統的實施，並且我們開始從其中一些技術投資中獲益。

And our next question comes from Sam Reid with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的薩姆·里德。

I wanted to talk order volumes really quickly. I know you don't guide on orders. But could you just give us some high-level context on how orders should theoretically trend in Q3 and Q4? And I guess what I'm getting at here is, should we see a departure from the seasonal cadence as you mix deeper into spec?

我想盡快談談訂單量。我知道你不指導訂單。但您能否為我們提供一些關於理論上第三季和第四季訂單趨勢的高層背景資訊？我想我在這裡想說的是，當你更深入地融入規格時，我們是否應該看到與季節性節奏的背離？

Sure. So I mentioned that we're really happy with 3 weeks of May. It's only 3 weeks, but we are trending higher than the historic numbers would suggest. Third quarter is usually down about 15% from the second quarter, if you look back in history, and we're doing much better than that for these 3 weeks. I think you're right, we don't guide to sales, but 2.4 sales per community per month, we're very comfortable with right now with how this quarter has begun, and that's better than normal seasonal trends in the beginning of the third quarter. So I think that's the best flavor I can give you on it.

當然。所以我提到我們對五月的三週感到非常滿意。雖然只有三週時間，但我們的趨勢比歷史數據顯示的要高。如果你回顧歷史，第三季通常比第二季下降約 15%，而我們這三週的表現比第二季好得多。我認為你是對的，我們不指導銷售，但每個社區每月 2.4 的銷售量，我們現在對本季度的開始方式感到非常滿意，這比年初的正常季節性趨勢要好第三季度。所以我認為這是我能給你的最好的味道。

No, that helps. And then maybe pivoting really quickly to land. I know you've already touched on some of this. But I wanted to get a sense for the visibility you have into your land pipeline because it sounds like you pretty much have a good idea as to what's going to happen in 2025 and 2026. So the question here is sort of do you have any view on how we should be modeling lot cost inflation over those next few years?

不，這有幫助。然後也許會很快地旋轉著陸。我知道您已經接觸過其中的一些內容。但我想了解一下您對陸地管道的了解，因為聽起來您對 2025 年和 2026 年將會發生的事情非常了解。成本通膨進行建模？

So right now, it's been running 5% to 10%, maybe probably closer to 5% up over the last year or so. And I think that's a fair -- if you're going to put it in a model, I think 5% is probably a fair number.

所以現在，它一直在運行 5% 到 10%，可能比去年左右增長接近 5%。我認為這是一個公平的數字——如果你要把它放入一個模型中，我認為 5% 可能是一個公平的數字。

It's important to reiterate that 42% of the lots that we own and control were priced for -- contracted for prior to 2021, which is kind of when the land market started to reap the benefits of COVID and the demand we saw in COVID.

需要重申的是，我們擁有和控制的地塊中有 42% 是在 2021 年之前簽訂合約定價的，此時土地市場開始從新冠疫情和我們在新冠疫情中看到的需求中獲益。

That's right.

這是正確的。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to management for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回管理階層進行閉幕致詞。

Rocco, thank you very much. You are terrific. Thanks, everyone. We appreciate all your interest and support. We're always here to answer any questions you may have. And I hope you have a wonderful Memorial Day and the start of a great summer. Thank you.

羅科，非常感謝你。你太棒了。感謝大家。我們感謝您的關注與支持。我們隨時解答您的任何問題。我希望您度過一個美好的陣亡將士紀念日並開始一個美好的夏天。謝謝。

Thank you, sir. This concludes today's conference call. We thank you all for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines, and have a wonderful day.

謝謝你，先生。今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝大家參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開線路，度過美好的一天。