托爾兄弟 (TOL) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Toll Brothers Fourth Quarter Fiscal Year 2023 Conference Call.

早上好，歡迎參加 Toll Brothers 2023 財年第四季電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions.

今天的演講結束後，將有機會提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

The company is planning to end the call at 9:30 when the market opens.

該公司計劃在 9:30 開市時結束電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Please also note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Douglas Yearley, CEO. Please go ahead, sir.

另請注意，此事件正在被記錄。我現在想將會議交給執行長道格拉斯·耶爾利 (Douglas Yearley)。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, [Rocco]. Good morning. Welcome and thank all of you for joining us. Before I begin, I ask you to read our statement on forward-looking information in our earnings release of last night and on our website. I caution you that many statements on this call are forward-looking based on assumptions about the economy, world events, housing and financial markets, interest rates, the availability of labor and materials, inflation and many other factors beyond our control that could significantly affect future results.

謝謝你，[羅科]。早安.歡迎並感謝大家加入我們。在開始之前，我請您閱讀我們昨晚發布的收益報告和我們網站上有關前瞻性資訊的聲明。我提醒您，本次電話會議中的許多陳述都是前瞻性的，基於對經濟、世界事件、住房和金融市場、利率、勞動力和材料的供應、通貨膨脹以及許多其他我們無法控制的因素的假設，這些因素可能會嚴重影響未來的結果。

With me today are Marty Connor, Chief Financial Officer; Rob Parahus, President and Chief Operating Officer; Fred Cooper, Senior VP of Finance and Investor Relations; Wendy Marlett, Chief Marketing Officer; and Gregg Ziegler, Senior VP and Treasurer.

今天和我在一起的有財務長馬蒂康納 (Marty Connor)；羅布‧帕拉胡斯 (Rob Parahus)，總裁兼營運長； Fred Cooper，財務與投資者關係資深副總裁；溫蒂‧馬萊特，首席行銷長；以及資深副總裁兼財務主管 Gregg Ziegler。

Fiscal 2023 and the fourth quarter were terrific for Toll Brothers. Our income and earnings per share for the full year were all-time highs, and we ended the year with a 72% increase in fourth quarter signed contracts compared to Q4 2022. We delivered 2,755 homes and generated $2.95 billion in home sales revenues in the fourth quarter, $211 million above the midpoint of our guidance.

2023 財年和第四季對 Toll Brothers 來說非常出色。我們全年的營收和每股盈餘創歷史新高，與2022 年第四季相比，我們在第四季簽署的合約成長了72%。我們交付了2,755 套房屋，並創造了29.5 億美元的房屋銷售收入。第四季度，比我們的指導中位數高出 2.11 億美元。

Our adjusted gross margin was 29.1%, and our SG&A expense as a percentage of home sales revenues was 8.2%, each feeding guidance by 60 basis points. The combination of top line outperformance and improved operating efficiency resulted in net income of $445.5 million or $4.11 per diluted share, our second best fourth quarter ever behind only last year's fourth quarter.

我們調整後的毛利率為 29.1%，SG&A 費用佔房屋銷售收入的百分比為 8.2%，每項指標均上調 60 個基點。出色的業績表現和營運效率的提高相結合，淨利潤達到 4.455 億美元，即稀釋後每股收益 4.11 美元，是我們第四季度第二好的季度業績，僅次於去年第四季。

For the full year, we delivered 9,597 homes at an average price of approximately $1.030 million, generating record homebuilding revenues of $9.9 billion. Our full year adjusted gross margin was 28.7%, a 120 basis point increase over 2022 and 20 basis points better than guidance. SG&A expense as a percentage of home sales revenues was 9.2%, an improvement of 90 basis points compared to last year and also 20 basis points better than guidance.

全年，我們交付了 9,597 套房屋，平均價格約為 103 萬美元，創造了創紀錄的 99 億美元的住宅建築收入。我們全年調整後毛利率為 28.7%，比 2022 年成長 120 個基點，比指導水準高 20 個基點。 SG&A 費用佔房屋銷售收入的百分比為 9.2%，比去年提高 90 個基點，也比指導值高 20 個基點。

Earnings in fiscal year 2023 were $1.4 billion or $12.36 per diluted share, both company records. Our book value per share was $65.49 at year-end and our return on beginning equity was 22.8%. We accomplished these results despite mortgage rates reaching generational highs, global unrest, gridlock in Washington and fears of a recession.

2023 財年的獲利為 14 億美元，稀釋後每股收益為 12.36 美元，均創公司紀錄。年末每股帳面價值為 65.49 美元，期初股本回報率為 22.8%。儘管抵押貸款利率達到世代高點、全球動盪、華盛頓陷入僵局以及對經濟衰退的擔憂，我們還是取得了這些成果。

Our success was due in large part to our strategies of not chasing sales at a lower margin in the second half of 2022, increasing our supply of spec homes and focusing on operational efficiency.

我們的成功在很大程度上歸功於我們在 2022 年下半年不追求較低利潤銷售的策略，增加了規格住宅的供應並專注於營運效率。

Turning to market conditions. We continue to see solid demand for our homes in the fourth quarter as a tight resale market continued to drive buyers to new homes. We signed 2,038 net contracts at an average price of $989,000, up 72% in units compared to Q4 2022. The average price was down 11% year-over-year, but essentially flat over the prior 3 quarters of 2023. The decline in ASP was due primarily to mix. In fact, we raised our average net price after incentives by $16,000 in the quarter. Remember that our mix shifts and lower ASPs should not be a surprise. It means our strategy of broadening our product offerings to include lower price points and capture greater market share and growth opportunities is working.

轉向市場狀況。我們繼續看到第四季度對房屋的強勁需求，因為轉售市場緊張繼續推動買家購買新房。我們簽署了 2,038 份淨合同，平均價格為 989,000 美元，與 2022 年第四季度相比增長了 72%。平均價格同比下降 11%，但與 2023 年前三個季度基本持平。平均售價下降主要是由於混合。事實上，本季我們將激勵後的平均淨價提高了 16,000 美元。請記住，我們的組合轉變和平均售價降低不應令人意外。這意味著我們擴大產品範圍、包括更低的價格點並佔領更大的市場份額和成長機會的策略正在發揮作用。

Along these lines, our affordable luxury and active adult communities were our strongest performers in the quarter. Unit sales of affordable luxury homes were up 109% in Q4 2023 and compared to Q4 2022 and active-adult was up 82%. In Q4, affordable luxury accounted for approximately 46% of our unit sales. Luxury was 31% and active-adult was 23%. On a dollar basis, affordable luxury was 38%, Luxury was 43% and active-adult was 19%.

沿著這些思路，我們負擔得起的奢侈品和活躍的成人社區是本季表現最強勁的社區。與 2022 年第四季相比，2023 年第四季經濟適用豪華住宅的單位銷售量成長了 109%，活躍成人住宅的單位銷售量成長了 82%。第四季度，平價奢侈品約占我們銷量的 46%。奢侈品佔 31%，活躍成人佔 23%。以美元計算，平價奢侈品佔 38%，奢侈品佔 43%，活躍成人佔 19%。

Geographically, our Pacific region was up nearly 250% in agreements in the fourth quarter versus the prior year, followed by our Mountain region which saw a 127% increase and the south of 87%. Our strongest markets in the quarter were Denver, Boise, Southern California, all of Texas and the Mid-Atlantic from Atlanta, up the Eastern seaboard to Boston.

從地理位置來看，我們的太平洋地區第四季的協議數量比去年同期增加了近 250%，其次是山區地區，成長了 127%，南部地區成長了 87%。本季我們最強勁的市場是丹佛、博伊西、南加州、整個德克薩斯州以及從亞特蘭大到東海岸到波士頓的大西洋中部地區。

In terms of cadence for the quarter, demand followed the typical seasonal pattern with September being the strongest for deposits. October was stronger than expected, given the rise in mortgage rates and we were encouraged that we did not have to increase incentives to drive sales in that month. As I mentioned, we actually raised our average price by $16,000 in the quarter, broken down as a $12,000 increase in base price and a $4,000 decrease in incentives. Demand has remained solid into the start of our first quarter and is consistent with normal seasonality.

就本季的節奏而言，需求遵循典型的季節性模式，其中 9 月的存款需求最為強勁。鑑於抵押貸款利率上升，十月份的表現強於預期，而且我們感到鼓舞的是，我們不必增加激勵措施來推動該月的銷售。正如我所提到的，我們本季的平均價格實際上提高了 16,000 美元，其中基本價格增加了 12,000 美元，激勵措施減少了 4,000 美元。第一季初期需求依然強勁，與正常的季節性相符。

As a reminder, historically, net orders declined about 20% from our fourth to first quarter primarily because of the holiday months of November and December followed our first quarter. We are anticipating a modestly better trend this year as we are encouraged by the recent 75 basis point decline in mortgage rates. With inflation easing over the past few quarters, we believe rates may drop further and the timing of the rate decline is setting up nicely for the upcoming spring selling season. This timing also plays well into our strategy of increasing our spec supply and growing our community count.

提醒一下，從歷史上看，第四季到第一季的淨訂單下降了約 20%，主要是因為第一季之後的 11 月和 12 月假期。由於近期抵押貸款利率下降 75 個基點，我們受到鼓舞，預計今年的趨勢將略有改善。隨著過去幾季通膨的緩和，我們認為利率可能會進一步下降，而利率下降的時機為即將到來的春季銷售季節做好了準備。這個時機也很好地融入了我們增加規格供應和增加社區數量的策略。

In the fourth quarter, spec homes represented approximately 42% of our orders and 33% of our deliveries. We expect that specs sold in fiscal 2024 will account for approximately 35% of deliveries in 2024. Remember that we define a spec as any home without a buyer that has a foundation poured. We sell our specs at various stages of construction, which allows many of our buyers the opportunity to still personalize their homes with finishes that match their tastes. Specs allow us to buy down mortgage rates, and we also benefit from a faster, more efficient construction schedule.

第四季度，規格住宅約占我們訂單的 42% 和交貨量的 33%。我們預計 2024 財年售出的規格將佔 2024 年交付量的約 35%。請記住，我們將規格定義為沒有買家且已澆築地基的任何房屋。我們在施工的各個階段出售我們的規格，這使我們的許多買家仍然有機會透過符合他們品味的飾面來個性化他們的房屋。規格使我們能夠降低抵押貸款利率，而且我們還受益於更快、更有效率的施工進度。

The other 65% of our projected 2024 deliveries are either in our backlog, which stood at nearly 6,600 homes and $6.95 billion at fiscal year-end or our build-to-order homes that have already sold or will be sold in this first quarter. This provides a solid base of high-margin homes to drive 2024 results. We expect community cap growth to also help drive results in fiscal 2024. We plan to increase community count by 10% this year and are targeting 410 operating communities at year-end. Importantly, we control sufficient land for community count growth beyond 2024.

我們預計2024 年交付的另外65% 要么是我們的積壓訂單（截至本財年末，已交付近6,600 套房屋，價值69.5 億美元），要么是我們已經售出或將在第一季度售出的按訂單建造的房屋。這為高利潤住宅推動 2024 年業績奠定了堅實的基礎。我們預計社區上限的成長也將有助於推動 2024 財年的業績。我們計劃今年將社區數量增加 10%，目標是到年底營運社區達到 410 個。重要的是，我們控制著足夠的土地來滿足 2024 年後社區數量的成長。

At fiscal year-end 2023, we controlled approximately 70,700 lots, 49% of which were optioned. Excluding the 6,578 lots committed to home buyers in our backlog, our option land represented 54% of lots. We continue to target an overall mix of 60% optioned and 40% owned over the longer term.

截至 2023 財年末，我們控制了約 70,700 塊土地，其中 49% 為選擇權。不包括我們積壓中向購屋者承諾的 6,578 塊地塊，我們的選擇權土地佔全部地塊的 54%。長期來看，我們的總體目標是實現 60% 的選擇權和 40% 的所有權的整體組合。

We also continue to be selective and disciplined in our approach to buying land. We assess all land deals, whether they involve new land opportunities or takedowns under existing options with underwriting standards focused on both margins and returns. This approach and our overall focus on capital efficiency has helped drive our ROE over 20% for the past 2 years.

我們在購買土地時也繼續保持選擇性和紀律。我們評估所有土地交易，無論它們涉及新的土地機會還是現有選項下的拆除，承保標準都專注於利潤和回報。這種方法以及我們對資本效率的整體關注幫助我們的 ROE 在過去 2 年中提高了 20% 以上。

In our fourth quarter, we repurchased $326 million of our common stock, bringing our full year repurchases to $556 million at an average price of $72 per share. During fiscal 2023, we repurchased approximately 7% of our diluted shares outstanding at the beginning of the year. We also paid $91 million in dividends in fiscal 2023. Buybacks and dividends will remain an important part of our capital allocation priorities well into the future. We have budgeted another $400 million of share repurchases in fiscal 2024. With that, I'll turn it over to Marty.

第四季度，我們回購了 3.26 億美元的普通股，使全年回購金額達到 5.56 億美元，平均價格為每股 72 美元。 2023 財年，我們回購了年初稀釋後流通股數的約 7%。我們還在 2023 財年支付了 9,100 萬美元的股息。回購和股息仍將是我們未來資本配置優先事項的重要組成部分。我們已經為 2024 財年再製定了 4 億美元的股票回購預算。這樣，我會將其交給 Marty。

Thanks, Doug. As Doug mentioned, we are very pleased with our fourth quarter and full year results. Our revenue, net income and earnings per share were all full year records. In fiscal year 2023's fourth quarter, we delivered 2,755 homes and generated home sales revenues of $2.95 billion, down 27% in homes and 18% in dollars from one year ago, reflecting the challenging sales environment from back then. The average price of homes delivered was up 13% to $1.071 million.

謝謝，道格。正如道格所提到的，我們對第四季和全年的業績非常滿意。我們的營收、淨利和每股盈餘均創下全年記錄。在 2023 財年第四季度，我們交付了 2,755 套房屋，房屋銷售收入為 29.5 億美元，房屋銷售收入較一年前下降 27%，美元收入下降 18%，反映出當時充滿挑戰的銷售環境。交付房屋的平均價格上漲 13%，達到 107.1 萬美元。

Fourth quarter net income was $445.5 million or $4.11 per diluted share compared to $640.5 million and $5.63 per diluted share one year ago. Remember that last year's net income included a net after-tax benefit of approximately $103 million related to the proceeds from the settlement of a legal claim. Our fourth quarter adjusted gross margin, which excludes interest and inventory write-downs, was 29.1% in 2023, up 10 basis points compared to 29.0% in the fourth quarter of 2022. Reflecting our strategy from over a year ago not to aggressively chase sales at the expense of margin when the market was softer.

第四季淨利為 4.455 億美元，即稀釋後每股收益 4.11 美元，而一年前為 6.405 億美元，稀釋後每股收益為 5.63 美元。請記住，去年的淨利潤包括與解決法律索賠收益相關的約 1.03 億美元的稅後淨收益。 2023 年第四季調整後毛利率（不包括利息和庫存減記）為 29.1%，比 2022 年第四季的 29.0% 上升 10 個基點。反映了我們一年多前不積極追逐銷售的策略當市場疲軟時，以犧牲保證金為代價。

SG&A as a percentage of revenues was 8.2% in the quarter, compared to 7.7% in the same quarter one year ago. The year-over-year percentage increase in SG&A was primarily related to less revenue leverage. Compared to 2022, total SG&A dollars were actually down $33 million in the quarter and $68 million for the year despite inflationary pressures.

本季 SG&A 佔營收的百分比為 8.2%，而一年前同一季度為 7.7%。 SG&A 年比百分比成長主要與收入槓桿減少有關。與 2022 年相比，儘管通膨壓力，但本季的 SG&A 總額實際上減少了​​ 3,300 萬美元，全年減少了 6,800 萬美元。

Joint venture, land sales and other income was $36 million in the fourth quarter compared to $152.5 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2022., which again included the aforementioned litigation recovery of $141 million on a pretax basis. Joint venture, land sales and other income in Q4 2023 included approximately $32 million of gains from the sale of stabilized apartment communities developed by Toll Brothers Apartment Living and held in joint venture.

第四季合資企業、土地銷售和其他收入為 3,600 萬美元，而 2022 財年第四季為 1.525 億美元，其中同樣包括上述稅前訴訟追回的 1.41 億美元。 2023 年第四季的合資企業、土地銷售和其他收入包括出售由 Toll Brothers Apartment Living 開發並由合資企業持有的穩定公寓社區帶來的約 3,200 萬美元收益。

Despite very challenging market conditions, we were able to sell 2 apartment communities at reasonable prices in the quarter, which is a testament to the quality of our apartment living communities. We expect to sell additional apartment communities this year.

儘管市場環境非常嚴峻，我們仍能夠在本季度以合理的價格出售兩個公寓社區，這證明了我們公寓居住社區的品質。我們預計今年將出售更多公寓社區。

Write-offs included in home sales cost of revenues totaled $8.3 million in the quarter compared to $22.1 million in the prior year period. Land sale write-offs were $12.9 million related to the planned sale of a city living land parcel into a joint venture. In the fourth quarter, 26% of our buyers paid all cash. Consistent with the 25% in the third quarter and up from our long-term average of 20%. Buyers who did take a mortgage averaged an LTV of 69% in the quarter. Our cancellation rate as a percentage of backlog was 3.4% in the fourth quarter, consistent with where this rate has been for all of 2023.

本季房屋銷售收入成本中的沖銷總額為 830 萬美元，而去年同期為 2,210 萬美元。與計劃將一塊城市生活用地出售給合資企業相關的土地出售沖銷為 1,290 萬美元。第四季度，26% 的買家支付了全部現金。與第三季的 25% 一致，高於我們 20% 的長期平均值。本季接受抵押貸款的買家平均貸款價值為 69%。第四季我們的取消率佔積壓訂單的百分比為 3.4%，與 2023 年全年的水準一致。

We continue to generate strong cash flow in fiscal 2023 with $1.3 billion of cash flow from operations. We ended the fiscal year with over $3 billion of liquidity, including $1.3 billion of cash and $1.8 billion available under our revolving bank credit facility, which has more than 4 years of duration remaining.

2023 財年，我們持續產生強勁的現金流，營運現金流達 13 億美元。在本財年結束時，我們擁有超過 30 億美元的流動資金，其中包括 13 億美元現金和循環銀行信貸安排下可用的 18 億美元，該信貸安排的剩餘期限超過 4 年。

In fiscal year 2023, we invested $2.3 billion in land acquisition and land development. We also returned $653 million to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends and reduced our senior debt by $400 million. Over the past 2 years, we've returned $1.3 billion to shareholders by repurchasing 18.9 million shares. Our net debt-to-capital ratio was 17.7% at fiscal year-end, and we have no significant debt maturities until fiscal 2026. Our balance sheet is in great shape.

2023財年，我們在土地收購和土地開發上投資了23億美元。我們也透過股票回購和股利向股東返還 6.53 億美元，並減少了 4 億美元的優先債務。在過去 2 年裡，我們透過回購 1,890 萬股股票向股東返還 13 億美元。截至財年末，我們的淨負債與資本比率為 17.7%，且在 2026 財年之前沒有重大債務到期。我們的資產負債表狀況良好。

Turning to our guidance. I'd like to remind you of the usual caveats regarding forward-looking statements. We are projecting first quarter deliveries of approximately 1,800 to 1,900 homes with an average price of between $985,000 and $1.005 million. Consistent with normal seasonal patterns, first quarter deliveries are expected to be the low point of the year, with deliveries for the full fiscal year weighted to the second half.

轉向我們的指導。我想提醒您有關前瞻性陳述的常見警告。我們預計第一季將交付約 1,800 至 1,900 套房屋，平均價格在 985,000 美元至 100.5 萬美元之間。與正常的季節性模式一致，第一季的交付量預計將是全年的最低點，整個財年的交付量將加權到下半年。

For full fiscal year 2024, we are projecting new home deliveries of between 9,500 and 10,350 homes with an average price between $940,000 and $960,000. We expect our adjusted gross margin in the first quarter of fiscal 2024 to be 28% and for the full year to be approximately 27.9%. The slight decline in our projected gross margin for Q1 from Q4 reflects the impact of the slower sales environment in the second half of fiscal '22 and the first quarter of fiscal '23, as more sales from that period will be delivering in Q1 then delivered in Q4.

2024 財年，我們預計新房交付量將在 9,500 至 10,350 套之間，平均價格在 940,000 美元至 960,000 美元之間。我們預計 2024 財年第一季調整後毛利率為 28%，全年調整後毛利率約為 27.9%。我們預計第一季的毛利率將較第四季度略有下降，反映了22 財年下半年和23 財年第一季銷售環境放緩的影響，因為該時期的更多銷售額將在第一季度交付，然後再交付在第四季。

We expect interest in cost of sales to be approximately 1.4% in the first quarter and for the full year. This reflects the continuing benefit of our lower leverage. We project first quarter SG&A as a percentage of home sales revenues to be approximately 12.4% versus 12.1% one year ago. Included in first quarter SG&A is about $12 million of our annual accelerated stock compensation expense that should not recur in the remainder of the year's quarters.

我們預計第一季和全年的銷售成本利息約為 1.4%。這反映了我們較低槓桿率帶來的持續好處。我們預計第一季 SG&A 將佔房屋銷售收入的比例約為 12.4%，而一年前為 12.1%。第一季的 SG&A 包括約 1,200 萬美元的年度加速股票補償費用，該費用不應在今年剩餘季度中再次出現。

For the full year, we project SG&A as a percentage of home sales revenues to be approximately 9.9%. The year-over-year projected increases in SG&A margin is due primarily to the impacts of lower revenue leverage, community count growth and cost inflation. We continue to focus on cost control and operating efficiency. We've made a lot of progress, but we are not done and are working to achieve additional cost savings in fiscal 2024 and beyond.

對於全年，我們預計 SG&A 將佔房屋銷售收入的比例約為 9.9%。 SG&A 利潤率預計將年增率主要是由於收入槓桿降低、社區數量成長和成本通膨的影響。我們持續關注成本控制和營運效率。我們已經取得了很大進展，但我們還沒有完成，我們正在努力在 2024 財年及以後實現額外的成本節約。

Other income, income from unconsolidated entities and land sales gross profit is expected to be a loss of $10 million in the first quarter, but a gain of $125 million for the full year which includes the sale of stabilized apartment communities. We do not expect any sales in the first quarter, but expect to sell a number of our communities by the end of the year. We project the first quarter and full year tax rate of approximately 26%.

其他收入、未合併實體的收入和土地銷售毛利潤預計第一季將虧損 1000 萬美元，但全年將獲得 1.25 億美元的收益，其中包括穩定公寓社區的銷售。我們預計第一季不會有任何銷售，但預計到年底會出售我們的一些社區。我們預計第一季和全年稅率約為 26%。

Our weighted average share count is expected to be approximately 106 million for the first quarter and 104 million for the full year. This assumes we repurchased a targeted $400 million of common stock this year, with most of that occurring later in the year, aligned with our anticipated higher cash flow. Based on land we currently own or control, we expect to grow community count by 10% by the end of fiscal 2024. Putting this all together, we project approximately $12 to $12.50 of earnings per share for the full year which would move our book value to approximately $78 per share at fiscal year-end 2024. With that, I'll turn it back over to Doug.

我們的加權平均股票數量預計第一季約為 1.06 億股，全年約為 1.04 億股。假設我們今年回購了 4 億美元的普通股，其中大部分發生在今年晚些時候，與我們預期的更高現金流量一致。根據我們目前擁有或控制的土地，我們預計到2024 財年末，社區數量將增加10%。將所有這些加在一起，我們預計全年每股收益約為12 至12.50 美元，這將改變我們的賬面價值到 2024 財年末，每股收益約為 78 美元。這樣，我會將其轉回給 Doug。

Thanks, Marty. Two years ago, in December 2021, the 30-year mortgage rate was around 3%. It doubled to 6% in December 2022 and a little over a month ago, it broke through 8%. It's extraordinary to think that mortgage rates have moved from 3% to 8% in 2 years. And yet during that time, we produced 2 consecutive years of record revenues and earnings with ROEs above 20%. We also increased our adjusted gross margin by 370 basis points, decreased our SG&A margin by 170 basis points.

謝謝，馬蒂。兩年前，也就是2021年12月，30年期抵押貸款利率約為3%。 2022 年 12 月，這一數字翻了一番，達到 6%，一個多月前，突破了 8%。抵押貸款利率在兩年內從 3% 升至 8%，這真是不可思議。但在此期間，我們連續兩年創造了創紀錄的收入和獲利，ROE 超過 20%。我們還將調整後毛利率提高了 370 個基點，將 SG&A 利潤率降低了 170 個基點。

And today, we are projecting another year of earnings above $12 per share. And we are not the only ones to have achieved strong results in the face of rising rates. It is clear the business model of the public builders has fundamentally changed. We have grown revenues and gained market share, lowered leverage, derisked balance sheet with a focus on capital efficiency, cash flows and ROE and returned a substantial amount of capital to our investors.

今天，我們預計明年每股收益將超過 12 美元。我們並不是唯一在利率上升的情況下取得強勁成果的國家。顯然，公共建築商的商業模式已經發生了根本性的變化。我們增加了收入，贏得了市場份額，降低了槓桿率，降低了資產負債表風險，重點關注資本效率、現金流和淨資產收益率，並向投資者返還了大量資本。

Today, Toll Brothers trades at approximately 7x earnings and 1.3x book value. The average PE multiple for the equally weighted S&P 500 is about 16x. In my opinion, our valuations deserve a fresh look.

如今，Toll Brothers 的本益比約為 7 倍，帳面價值約為 1.3 倍。同等權重的標準普爾 500 指數的平均本益比約為 16 倍。在我看來，我們的估值值得重新檢視。

Before we open it up to questions, I'd like to thank the entire Toll Brothers team for staying focused on our customers, adapting to market conditions and consistently executing on our core strategies. Most importantly, you've helped position the company for continued success in 2024 and beyond. For that, I am truly grateful. Now let's open it up to questions. [Rocco], we're ready to go.

在我們提出問題之前，我要感謝整個 Toll Brothers 團隊始終專注於我們的客戶、適應市場條件並始終如一地執行我們的核心策略。最重要的是，您幫助公司在 2024 年及以後持續成功。對此，我真的很感激。現在讓我們提出問題。 [Rocco]，我們準備好了。

Yes, sir. We will now begin the question-and-answer session.

是的先生。我們現在開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

And today's first question comes from Stephen Kim with Evercore.

今天的第一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Stephen Kim。

Appreciate all the color. Congrats on the good results. I guess my first question is related to your ongoing product mix shift, the affordable luxury in particular. I was curious if you could give us a sense for how long do you think this process of sort of adjusting your mix is going to take? Is this something that we could see stabilize by year-end '24? Do you think you will have gotten your mix sort of where you want it? Or is it going to be something that's going to be a multiyear process? And can you help us understand what an expected range of absorptions should be sales per community per month once your mix does stabilize at the levels that -- at the sort of percentages that you want?

欣賞所有的顏色。恭喜取得好成績。我想我的第一個問題與你們正在進行的產品組合轉變有關，特別是平價奢侈品。我很好奇您能否告訴我們您認為調整混音的過程需要多長時間？我們可以看到這種情況到 24 年底就會穩定下來嗎？你認為你的混音會達到你想要的效果嗎？或者這將是一個需要多年的過程？一旦您的組合穩定在您想要的百分比水平，您能否幫助我們了解每個社區每月銷售額的預期吸收範圍應該是多少？

Sure. It's a fluid process, Steve. We're really proud of this move we made into some lower price, still affordable -- excuse me, still luxury product. As I've talked about, with 75 million millennials out there, we were not going to wait for them to hit their 40s and buy their move-up home, which is what the Toll Brothers has always been about. And I'm really proud of how we brought up the 3 Series BMW, and we went after the more affluent first-time buyer. I think it will stabilize around 45% of our business on a unit basis.

當然。這是一個流暢的過程，史蒂夫。我們對這項舉措感到非常自豪，我們推出了一些價格更低、價格仍然實惠的產品——對不起，仍然是奢侈品。正如我所說，有 7500 萬千禧世代，我們不會等待他們到了 40 歲才購買升級住房，而這正是 Toll Brothers 一直以來的宗旨。我對我們開發 3 系列 BMW 的方式感到非常自豪，我們追求的是更富有的首次購買者。我認為這將使我們的業務量穩定在 45% 左右。

Now remember, because the price is a bit lower on a dollar value that may be down 5 points or so from that 45% and based on the numbers we just gave you for where we are right now, we're getting pretty close to that. In the fourth quarter, we were spot on with affordable luxury being 46% of our unit sales and it reflected about 38% of our dollar value. So it's fluid. We continue to focus on more and more of those opportunities, but we're getting close to what I think is a good mix.

現在請記住，因為以美元計算的價格要低一些，可能會比 45% 下降 5 個百分點左右，並且根據我們剛剛向您提供的目前的數據，我們已經非常接近這個水平了。在第四季度，我們的平價奢侈品占我們單位銷售額的 46%，它反映了我們美元價值的 38% 左右。所以它是流體的。我們將繼續關注越來越多的此類機會，但我們正在接近我認為的良好組合。

Quarter-by-quarter, it may vary a little bit, but we're about there. And as I also mentioned, the affordable luxury and the active adult empty nester, which also tends to be a bit lower priced, naturally, they led in order growth fourth quarter '23 over '22. So the strategy is paying off. Those segments are performing well, and they should, right? 75 million millennials and 75 million boomers are driving the most action in those 2 segments for us.

每個季度，情況可能會略有不同，但我們已經差不多了。正如我還提到的，經濟實惠的奢侈品和活躍的成人空巢老人的價格也往往較低，自然，它們在 23 年第四季度的訂單增長領先於 22 年第四季度。所以這個策略正在得到回報。這些細分市場表現良好，應該如此，對吧？ 7500 萬千禧世代和 7500 萬嬰兒潮世代正在為我們推動這兩個細分市場的大部分行動。

So we're getting close to where we want to be with a little bit of fluidity as it moves quarter-to-quarter, but most of the hard work is behind us.

因此，我們正在接近我們想要的目標，隨著季度的變化，有一點流動性，但大部分的艱苦工作已經過去了。

And absorptions?

還有吸收？

So the last couple of years, we've been running at 24, 25 sales per community per year for the company. I think heading into '24, particularly with rates moving down, economic outlooks beginning to improve, a sense that the Fed is done or very close to being done, we believe we're going to do better than that 24 to 25 overall for the company. And of course, we have higher absorptions in both affordable luxury and active-adult moved down because the price point is lower. There's more buyers with those demographics. So let's just say if the average is 26 of the company, maybe affordable luxury active-adult is pushing up to 30 and move up is in, call it, the 22 to 24 range.

因此，過去幾年，我們公司每個社區的銷售額每年為 24、25。我認為進入 24 世紀，特別是隨著利率下降、經濟前景開始改善、美聯儲已經完成或非常接近完成任務的感覺，我們相信我們的整體表現將比 24 至 25 年更好。公司。當然，我們對經濟實惠的奢侈品和活躍成人的吸收率更高，因為價格點較低。這些人群中有更多的買家。因此，我們可以說，如果公司的平均年齡為 26 歲，那麼負擔得起的奢侈品活躍成人可能會升至 30 歲，並且向上移動的範圍是 22 至 24 歲。

Okay. That's helpful. Appreciate it. Next question is related to inventory. I was curious if you could give us a sense, maybe, Marty, what your expectations are for inventory dollars, either for the average of full year '24 or by year-end '24. Maybe you could put it in terms of inventory turns, if you like, or in just the dollar change? And at year-end -- at the end of fourth quarter, what was your sticks and bricks number?

好的。這很有幫助。欣賞它。下一個問題與庫存有關。我很好奇你能否告訴我們，馬蒂，你對庫存美元的預期是多少，無論是 24 年全年的平均水平還是 24 年年底的平均水平。如果您願意的話，也許您可以用庫存週轉率來表示，或者只用美元變化來表示？在年底 - 第四季末，你的木棍和磚塊數量是多少？

I'll let the team scramble to find that sticks and bricks number. In terms of inventory turns. It's a focus of ours. Our spec strategy should improve that, our mix shift to more affordable luxury and more active-adult, which are easier to help with that turn. They're quicker to build should be important for us. We do have a number of specs that are already in our inventory balance right now. So I don't think you're going to see our inventory balance grow dramatically this year compared to where it is right now, And right now, what have we got for construction in progress...

我會讓團隊爭先恐後地找到木棍和磚塊的編號。從庫存週轉率來看。這是我們的一個重點。我們的規格策略應該改進這一點，我們的組合轉向更實惠的奢侈品和更活躍的成年人，這更容易幫助實現這一轉變。它們的建造速度更快，這對我們來說應該很重要。我們現在確實有一些規格已經在我們的庫存餘額中。因此，我認為與現在相比，今年我們的庫存餘額不會大幅增長，而現在，我們正在建造工程有哪些...

Our CIP is $5.5 billion.

我們的 CIP 為 55 億美元。

$5.5 billion is our construction in progress. That includes the backlog and it includes around 40% of that is land and improvements.

55 億美元是我們的在建工程。這包括積壓的訂單，其中約 40% 是土地和改良項目。

And our next question today comes from Mike Dahl with RBC Capital Markets.

今天我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的麥克達爾。

Just to follow up on that, Marty. I think it's interesting in the inventory dynamic because as you're kind of shifting for the spec and projecting increase in deliveries, your backlog is still down and your construction in progress is actually down both sequentially and year-on-year. Maybe some of that is the mix shift to lower-priced homes, but it does seem to imply your expectations for a pretty significant increase in inventory turns or improvement in cycle times. So can you just elaborate a little bit on that more and give us a sense maybe of where you're at in terms of current homes under production in unit terms for specs and how you expect to stage that through the spring?

只是為了跟進此事，馬蒂。我認為庫存動態很有趣，因為隨著您對規格的轉變和預計交付量的增加，您的積壓訂單仍然下降，而您的在建工程實際上連續和同比下降。也許其中一些是向低價房屋的混合轉變，但這似乎確實意味著您對庫存週轉率顯著增加或週期時間改善的預期。那麼，您能否詳細說明一下這一點，讓我們了解您目前正在生產的房屋的規格單位情況以及您預計如何在春季進行？

Sure. So in addition to the 6,600 or so homes that are in backlog, we have roughly another 2,700, 2,800 homes in various stages of construction that we define as quick move-in or spec homes. Around 400 to 500 of those are at CO or beyond. And I think we're very comfortable at that level. As it relates to the inventory balance, our backlog came down rather significantly from the end of last year to the beginning of this year, and it's been replaced, if you will, in the inventory with the spec homes that I just mentioned.

當然。因此，除了大約 6,600 套積壓的房屋之外，我們還有大約 2,700 套、2,800 套處於不同施工階段的房屋，我們將其定義為快速入住或規格房屋。其中大約 400 到 500 人處於 CO 或更高水平。我認為我們在這個水平上感到非常舒適。由於與庫存平衡有關，從去年底到今年年初，我們的積壓訂單顯著下降，並且如果您願意的話，它已在庫存中被我剛才提到的規格房屋所取代。

And Marty, just to help clarify that also that what we call the finished specs, which are those that a client can move in, in the next couple of months, it's only 1.5 homes per community that are specs that are at or very close to CO and we can offer up to the client as a great alternative to a resale home that is not on the market at the moment.

Marty，只是為了幫助澄清這一點，即我們所說的最終規格，即客戶可以在接下來的幾個月內搬入的規格，每個社區只有 1.5 套房屋的規格達到或非常接近CO，我們可以為客戶提供目前不在市場上的轉售房屋的絕佳替代方案。

And remember, we define a spec as a home that has a foundation port. Not all specs are full go to completion. Many of them are sold in the construction progress -- process at various stages of completion, and we very actively manage the stages of go, no-go and advancing the construction on those homes.

請記住，我們將規格定義為具有基礎連接埠的房屋。並非所有規格都已完成。其中許多是在施工進度中出售的——在完成的各個階段，我們非常積極地管理這些房屋的施工、不施工和推進施工的階段。

And our next question today comes from Michael Rehaut with JPMorgan.

今天我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Michael Rehaut。

Thanks and congrats on the results. First question, I just wanted to circle back to some of the commentary around the more recent trends and the outlook for first quarter orders being a little better than historical seasonality and importantly, you kind of highlighted that you didn't really have to raise incentives in October, and I believe you raised pricing during the quarter, the past quarter about 1%, 1.5%. Given where we are today and maybe some of the more recent trends that we've seen going into the current quarter and some of the optimism, I guess, that you talked about around the recent decline in rates into the spring, how should we think about like-for-like pricing in '24, particularly as you're still seeing pockets of inflation here or there across the construction cost spectrum?

感謝並祝賀結果。第一個問題，我只是想回顧一下有關最近趨勢的一些評論，以及第一季訂單的前景比歷史季節性要好一些，重要的是，您強調了您實際上不必提高激勵措施10月份，我相信你們在這個季度提高了定價，上個季度大約提高了1%、1.5%。考慮到我們今天所處的位置，也許還有我們在本季度看到的一些最新趨勢，以及您談到的近期利率下降到春季的一些樂觀情緒，我們應該如何思考關於24 年的同類定價，特別是當你仍然看到整個建築成本範圍內存在通貨膨脹的情況時？

Great question, Mike. We certainly don't have a crystal ball as to where the spring will end up. But I will tell you that I am a lot more encouraged sitting here in the middle of December than I was a year ago. On October 19, we hit 8.25% for a 30-year no-point mortgage. And I checked the rate sheet this morning before I walked in here, and today, we're at 7.25%. So we're down 100 basis points in the 30-year mortgage in 6 weeks.

好問題，麥克。我們當然沒有水晶球來預測春天最終會走向何方。但我要告訴你的是，12 月中旬坐在這裡時，我比一年前受到了更多的鼓舞。 10 月 19 日，30 年期無積分抵押貸款利率達 8.25%。今天早上我走進這裡之前檢查了費率表，今天我們的利率是 7.25%。因此，我們在 6 週內將 30 年期抵押貸款降低了 100 個基點。

It's December. I can't sit here and tell you that, that's translating immediately in the last couple of weeks' results because of seasonality. But it sure feels good heading into the spring season and the timing couldn't be better for a rate to drop like that in December, setting up that mid-January launch of the spring season when most homes are sold. The 10 years at 417, remember the historic spread from the 10-year to the 30 is 170 basis points. If that historic spread was in play today, that's a 5 and 7/8 mortgage off of this 10-year. I think we all believe the 10-year still has room to move south. And at some point, when there's more confidence in the longer-term macroeconomic outlook, the spread is going to come down from where it is now to something closer to that 170.

現在是十二月。我不能坐在這裡告訴你，由於季節性因素，這會立即反映在過去幾週的結果中。但進入春季的感覺確實不錯，而且 12 月份房價下降的時機再好不過了，為春季的 1 月中旬啟動，大多數房屋都已售出。 10 年期利率為 417，請記住，從 10 年期利率到 30 年期利率的歷史利差是 170 個基點。如果這個歷史利差今天發揮作用，那麼這 10 年期抵押貸款利率為 5 和 7/8。我想我們都相信十年仍有向南移動的空間。到了某個時候，當人們對長期宏觀經濟前景更有信心時，利差就會從現在的水平下降到接近 170 的水平。

So again, I don't have the crystal ball on rates, but it sure feels good and there's reason to believe that this 7.25% we sit at today may even get better. And that just sets up really well for the spring season. Where we have the most pricing power, that will be market by market. We make those decisions on a very local community-by-community basis. We have many, many communities opening during the spring season. We talk about 10% community cap growth, but that's a net number. We're going to have many communities sell out, and we're going to have over 100 to a week new communities opening in 2024. And over the last few years, there's been a lot of hype with the launches of these new communities because of the pent-up demand as people wait for that new community to open up. So I know it's a soft answer for you, but that's the best I can give you.

再說一次，我沒有關於利率的水晶球，但感覺確實不錯，並且有理由相信我們今天的 7.25% 甚至可能會變得更好。這為春季做好了準備。在我們擁有最大定價權的地方，這將是逐一市場的。我們在每個社區的基礎上做出這些決定。我們有很多很多社區在春季開放。我們談論的是 10% 的社區上限成長，但這只是一個淨數字。我們將有許多社區售空，並且到 2024 年，我們將有超過 100 個到一周的新社區開業。在過去幾年中，這些新社區的推出引起了很多炒作，因為當人們等待新社區開放時，被壓抑的需求就會被釋放。所以我知道這對你來說是一個溫和的答案，但這是我能給你的最好的答案。

But sitting here today, with where rates stand, with where sentiment stands, with how the company is positioned, with new openings and with the spec strategy that will be adding more homes available to purchase at various stages of completion as we roll through this coming spring, we have optimism. And therefore, we think we will be able to raise prices and we will be able to continue to manage and hopefully continue to modestly decline the incentive -- reduce the incentives.

但今天坐在這裡，了解利率的情況、情緒的情況、公司的定位、新開張的情況以及規格策略，隨著我們即將到來的未來，將在不同的完工階段增加更多可供購買的房屋春天，我們樂觀。因此，我們認為我們將能夠提高價格，我們將能夠繼續進行管理，並希望繼續適度地降低激勵措施——減少激勵措施。

Right. No, that all makes sense, Doug, and I appreciate the answer. Maybe secondly, just kind of looking at some of the broad strokes around order trends. You talked about sales pace maybe being potentially around 26% versus maybe that's up about 10% or so versus the last year or 2 talking about community count also about 10%. So you're talking about roughly a 20% growth in orders if those numbers kind of flow through. That would still kind of trail the midpoint of your closings for the year. And so you'd actually end up with a backlog down year-over-year once again in '24.

正確的。不，這一切都有道理，道格，我很欣賞你的答案。也許其次，只是看看訂單趨勢的一些大致情況。您談到銷售速度可能會在 26% 左右，而去年或兩年前可能增加了 10% 左右，而社群數量也約為 10%。因此，如果這些數字能夠實現的話，訂單量大約會成長 20%。這仍然會落後於今年結帳的中點。因此，實際上在 24 年，積壓訂單再次逐年減少。

As a result, in order to have closings growth in '25, you'd actually have to further turn your -- beginning your backlog faster, maybe something 1.8x or something around that if you're having a moderate level of closings growth. Is that something you're comfortable with in that type of scenario? Obviously, you talked about spec increasing as a percent of sales. I don't know if that would continue to increase in -- over the next year or 2. You have turned your beginning backlog in that 1.5 to 2x range in the past. So is that a scenario that is reasonable in your view?

因此，為了在 25 年實現成交量成長，您實際上必須進一步加快您的積壓工作速度，如果您的成交量成長處於中等水平，則可能是 1.8 倍或左右。在這種情況下您對此感到滿意嗎？顯然，您談到規格佔銷售額的百分比增加。我不知道在未來一年或兩年內，這一數字是否會繼續增加。過去，您已將開始的積壓數量控制在 1.5 至 2 倍的範圍內。那麼您認為這種情況合理嗎？

Yes. We are committed to the new spec strategy. I think in the industry, we're on the low end, for sure, with a percentage of our homes at [rspec]. We're very careful in that strategy. But as we've come -- strategically come down in price point, there are more opportunities for us to build more spec. We also know there's a void with the tight resale market for those buyers that want to move in faster because maybe they went to market and we're looking for a resale. They couldn't find what they wanted. But they had in their mind an earlier move-in date than the typical 12-month build-to-order construction cycle time.

是的。我們致力於新的規格戰略。我認為在這個行業中，我們肯定處於低端，我們的房屋中有一定比例處於[rspec]。我們在這項策略上非常謹慎。但隨著我們策略性地降低價格，我們有更多機會打造更多規格。我們也知道，對於那些想要更快入住的買家來說，轉售市場緊張，存在空白，因為也許他們已經進入市場，而我們正在尋找轉售。他們找不到他們想要的東西。但他們認為搬入日期比典型的 12 個月按訂單生產週期還要早。

And so yes, the strategy is working. We are committed to it. And as Marty said earlier, many buildings to find spec as a home that's much further along and there's no opportunity for choice. We put many of our specs on the market when they're being framed. And on occasion, more than on occasion, regularly, we may slow down construction as drywall as being hung so that the buyer has that opportunity to pick their flooring, pick their kitchen cabinets, pick their countertops, pick their color, plumbing fixtures, et cetera, et cetera, and that still offers the buyer the opportunity to go through the design studio process. Have a home that they feel is accustomed to their lifestyle, but it's still a much quicker delivery than if they started fresh before we'd even pull the building permit. So this strategy is now in its second full year, it is working and it will continue to drive growth in the future.

是的，該策略正在發揮作用。我們致力於此。正如馬蒂之前所說，許多建築物尋找規格作為住宅的距離要遠得多，並且沒有選擇的機會。我們的許多規格在設計時就已推出市場。有時，比有時，定期，我們可能會放慢施工速度，就像懸掛的乾牆一樣，以便買家有機會選擇他們的地板，選擇他們的廚櫃，選擇他們的檯面，選擇他們的顏色，管道裝置等諸如此類，等等，這仍然為買家提供了經歷設計工作室流程的機會。擁有一個他們覺得習慣了他們的生活方式的家，但這仍然比在我們取消建築許可證之前他們重新開始交付要快得多。因此，該策略現在已進入第二個完整年度，它正在發揮作用，並將繼續推動未來的成長。

And our next question today comes from Alan Ratner with Zelman Associates.

今天我們的下一個問題來自 Zelman Associates 的艾倫·拉特納 (Alan Ratner)。

Congrats on the great year. A couple of questions. I know you're still somewhat early on in the spec shift, but I'm curious if you can give a little bit of color in terms of how specs kind of just perform in comparison to build to order. Obviously, margin is probably the main focal point. But do you see any differences in kind of how spec buyers behave when rates are volatile in either direction, either up or down or any other kind of interesting observations you've kind of taken as you've grown that part of your business?

祝賀偉大的一年。有幾個問題。我知道您在規格轉變方面還處於早期階段，但我很好奇您是否可以就規格與按訂單生產相比的表現提供一些資訊。顯然，利潤可能是主要焦點。但是，當利率朝任一方向（向上或向下）波動時，您是否發現投機買家的行為有何差異，或者您在發展這部分業務時所採取的任何其他有趣的觀察結果？

Sure. So let me first start on the numbers. Our specs sell for about $200,000 less than build to order, and that's because of 2 things. We generally don't build a spec on the high lot, premium lots. We save the best lots for those clients who want to go build-to-order because we know the build-to-order crowd when they get into our design studio, they spend a lot more money. And so part of that $200,000 lower price is a more average lot premium and it's less upgrades.

當然。讓我先從數字開始。我們的規格售價比以訂單生產的價格低約 20 萬美元，原因有二。我們通常不會針對高地段、優質地段製定規格。我們為那些想要按訂單生產的客戶保留最好的地段，因為我們知道按訂單生產的人群進入我們的設計工作室時，他們會花更多的錢。因此，200,000 美元的較低價格的一部分是更平均的地段溢價，以及更少的升級。

We make sure the specs are fully curated with great finishes. We bring in nationally acclaimed designers that do the interior design of our model homes to come up with great packages, but we don't go wild and we don't overdo it. And so naturally, that price is a couple of hundred thousand dollars lower. We also tend to build more specs in less expensive communities, because you have more buyers. The lower you go on price, the bigger the market you have. Generally, spec's gross margin is about 250 basis points lower than build-to-order. At this moment in time.

我們確保規格得到充分策劃並具有出色的飾面。我們聘請了全國知名的設計師來為我們的樣品屋進行室內設計，以提供出色的包裝，但我們不會瘋狂，也不會過度。因此，價格自然會低幾十萬美元。我們也傾向於在較便宜的社區建立更多的規格，因為你有更多的買家。價格越低，市場越大。一般來說，規格的毛利率比按訂單生產低約 250 個基點。就在此時此刻。

Now we are encouraged that, that spread is tightening a bit. But as part of our new business model, we've accepted that. We're not disappointed by that at all. We're happy with that because when you blend the build-to-order model and by the way, another stat that's related to this, we are now at 26.5% reflecting lot premium plus upgrades for the build-to-order client. That used to be 21%. So those that are going build-to-order, they're taking the best lots with the higher premiums and they're spending more money on both structural and finish upgrades.

現在令我們感到鼓舞的是，這種利差正在稍微收緊。但作為我們新商業模式的一部分，我們已經接受了這一點。我們對此一點也不失望。我們對此感到滿意，因為當你混合按訂單生產模式以及與此相關的另一個統計數據時，我們現在的比例為 26.5%，反映了批量溢價加上按訂單生產客戶的升級。以前是21%。因此，那些按訂單生產的企業會以更高的溢價購買最好的批次，並在結構和飾面升級上花費更多的錢。

And therefore, because as we've talked about, our gross margin coming out of our design studios is up at 40%, the build-to-order business model is driving terrific margins. We are happy to weigh into that, to blend into that a spec margin at 2.5 points lower because the overall package, as you can see, is pretty darn good, and we're driving a nice high margin. So that -- I hope that helped you, Alan, with the breakdown of the price point of the spec and the margin of the spec.

因此，正如我們所討論的，我們設計工作室的毛利率上升了 40%，而按訂單生產的業務模式正在推動極高的利潤率。我們很高興對此進行權衡，將規格利潤率降低 2.5 個百分點，因為正如您所看到的，整體包裝非常好，而且我們正在推動很高的利潤率。因此，我希望這對您有所幫助，艾倫，詳細介紹了規格的價格點和規格的利潤。

Yes, that's all really helpful. It definitely gives us good insight into how that mix will unfold. So I appreciate all the detail there. Second question I had is on the land side. I know there's been a few questions on inventory turns and things like that. You guys are making great progress towards the 60% option goal. I'm curious if you have a goal or a target or maybe your content where it is today in terms of where your supply of owned lots can go.

是的，這真的很有幫助。它確實讓我們很好地了解了這種混合將如何展開。所以我很欣賞那裡的所有細節。我的第二個問題是關於陸地方面的。我知道存在一些關於庫存週轉率之類的問題。你們正在朝著 60% 的選擇目標取得巨大進展。我很好奇你是否有目標或目標，或者你的內容在你擁有的土地供應方面是否有今天的情況。

Obviously, as you option the land, that has some impact. But your supply of owned lots has been pretty steady in the 4-year range, maybe plus or minus over the last several years, even as the option share has moved higher. And I would think that, that would be one lever you could pull to further improve those terms. So is there a target in mind how low could that number go with your business model? Obviously, all your peers are closer to 2 years, but you have a bit of a different model there. So any color you can give there would be great.

顯然，當你選擇土地時，這會產生一些影響。但你擁有的土地供應量在 4 年範圍內相當穩定，在過去幾年中可能有所增加或減少，即使期權份額有所上升。我認為，這將是您可以進一步改善這些條款的一個槓桿。那麼，您心中是否有一個目標，就是根據您的業務模式，這個數字可以低到多低？顯然，你所有的同齡人都接近 2 歲，但你的模型有點不同。所以你可以給那裡任何顏色都會很棒。

Sure, Alan. I think the long-term goal for us is to get down to 2 to 2.5 years of owned land with almost a year's worth of that owned land having a backlog home or a spec home on it in various stages of construction.

當然，艾倫。我認為我們的長期目標是將自有土地的使用年限減少到 2 到 2.5 年，其中幾乎一年的自有土地上有處於不同建設階段的積壓房屋或規格房屋。

And our next question today comes from Rafe Jadrosich with Bank of America.

今天我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Rafe Jadrosich。

Just following up on the last question on the difference between spec and BTL. Can you talk a little bit about the return on inventory on spec or current equity on spec versus the build to order?

繼續跟進最後一個關於spec 和BTL 之間區別的問題。您能談談規格庫存回報率或規格當前權益與按訂單生產的情況嗎？

Sure. The spectrum on average take about 2 months less to build and deliver.

當然。頻譜的建置和交付平均需要大約 2 個月的時間。

So Rafe, the return on equity from the spec homes is a little higher than the return on equity for the build-to-order homes. And the inverse relationship of the gross margin is the balance we're trying to play there.

因此，Rafe，規格住宅的股本回報率略高於按訂單建造的住宅的股本回報率。毛利率的反比關係就是我們試圖達到的平衡。

Got it. That makes sense. It's very helpful. And then just on the order commentary for the first quarter, sort of what you're seeing quarter-to-date, the comment that it's sort of generally in line with normal seasonality or a little -- maybe a little bit better. You do have more communities right now and then mortgage rates, as you said, have come down. Why wouldn't it be better than normal seasonality? Is that just because October didn't actually really slow that much? Or is it just a slow period in December? Is there community timing? How come it's not better than normal seasonality, just given you have some incremental tailwinds quarter-to-date?

知道了。這就說得通了。這非常有幫助。然後是第一季的訂單評論，就像你在本季所看到的那樣，評論說它總體上符合正常的季節性，或者有點——也許更好一點。現在確實有更多的社區，然後抵押貸款利率，正如你所說，已經下降。為什麼它不會比正常的季節性更好？這僅僅是因為十月實際上並沒有真正放緩那麼多嗎？或者說這只是12月的淡季？有社區時間嗎？考慮到本季迄今有一些增量順風，為什麼它沒有比正常的季節性更好？

Well, it's seasonality. The November and December, historically, are slower months. You've got -- obviously, we know the holidays, you have from Thanksgiving through New Year's. And I'm actually pleased that we're trending where we are. We've already said that historically, Q1 is down 20% because in Q1, you have this November and December, but we're hopeful.

嗯，這是季節性的。從歷史上看，十一月和十二月是較慢的月份。顯然，我們知道假期，從感恩節到新年。事實上，我很高興我們的發展趨勢。我們已經說過，從歷史上看，第一季下降了 20%，因為在第一季度，你有今年 11 月和 12 月，但我們充滿希望。

And it's a combination of the sales we've had to date to start the first quarter plus these pretty dramatic drop in the rates over the last few weeks, setting up what we think not from now through New Year's, but in early January we have, I think, very solid legitimate reasons to believe that the market is going to -- we're going to have a good start to that spring season in January, we're going to do better than that historic to 20% down.

這是我們迄今為止第一季開始的銷售量加上過去幾週費率大幅下降的綜合結果，我們認為從現在到新年都不會發生這種情況，但在一月初我們已經我認為，有非常充分的合理理由相信市場將會——我們將在1 月的春季有一個良好的開端，我們將比歷史性的下跌20% 做得更好。

Right? When we talk about seasonal trends, we're talking about on a per community basis as well. So we've kind of already adjusted for a little bit more communities.

正確的？當我們談論季節性趨勢時，我們也在談論每個社區的趨勢。所以我們已經針對更多的社區進行了調整。

And one week doesn't make a trend. But last week was a really good week. And I'm not going to read too much into that, but we're going to stay where we are, which is -- it feels seasonal. The norm is down 20%. We think we'll do a little better.

而且一週並不能形成一種趨勢。但上週真是美好的一周。我不會對此進行太多解讀，但我們將保持現狀，這感覺是季節性的。標準下降 20%。我們認為我們會做得更好一點。

And our next question today comes from Alex Barrón with Housing Research Center.

今天我們的下一個問題來自住房研究中心的 Alex Barrón。

Yes. Great job. I wanted to ask in terms of incentives, particularly rate incentives, what seems to be working for you guys better? Or what are you offering that clients are (inaudible) to come in?

是的。做得好。我想問在激勵方面，特別是利率激勵方面，什麼似乎對你們更有效？或是您提供客戶什麼（聽不清楚）進來？

Alex, it's a great question. It's very interesting for us, and this may be a bit different from the other builders. We have all the programs the other builders have. We've got the 2/1 buydown, we've got the [3/2/1] buy down. We'll take your 30-year rate from now 7.25% to 5.58%. You want, we'll call our mortgage company, and we'll figure it out. And it's a great front-end marketing tool. It's all over our website. It's all over the e-mail marketing campaigns we have with our clients. It drives traffic into our communities (inaudible) take it.

亞歷克斯，這是一個很好的問題。這對我們來說非常有趣，這可能與其他建造者有點不同。我們擁有其他建築商擁有的所有計劃。我們有 2/1 的買入，我們有 [3/2/1] 的買入。我們會將 30 年期利率從現在的 7.25% 提高到 5.58%。如果您願意，我們會打電話給我們的抵押貸款公司，我們會解決的。它是一個很棒的前端行銷工具。我們的網站上到處都是。這貫穿我們與客戶進行的電子郵件行銷活動中。它推動了我們社區的流量（聽不清楚）接受它。

And the reason is, if we're buying your rate down, we're looking at a 30-year time frame and most clients think to themselves, I'm going to be in this house 5 to 7 years, which is the average amount of time that you're in a home or they think I can refi at some point before that 5 to 7 years and the incentive that Toll Brothers is wrapping into this rate buydown, they have offered me as an alternative incentive to go have funded a design studio and have a discount or a credit in that design studio. And I'd rather upgrade my house on them, than take advantage of a rate buy down.

原因是，如果我們降低利率，我們會考慮 30 年的時間框架，大多數客戶都會自己想，我將在這所房子里呆 5 到 7 年，這是平均水平你在家裡的時間，或者他們認為我可以在5 到7 年之前的某個時間重新融資，以及Toll Brothers 納入此利率購買的激勵措施，他們為我提供了作為資助的替代激勵措施設計工作室，並在該設計工作室享有折扣或積分。我寧願用它們升級我的房子，也不願利用降價的機會。

So it's driving traffic, it's conversation, but we are not seeing the stickiness that maybe others are.

因此，它推動了流量，促進了對話，但我們沒有看到其他人可能擁有的黏性。

Part of it is 26% our buyers are all cash. And those that get a mortgage have 69% LTV. And I think maybe they're obviously more affluent. Maybe they take a little lower mortgage than they would otherwise have. That's particularly true in active adults with that LTV is probably closer to 50% because they have more equity coming out of their existing home and they're thinking to themselves, I'd rather use the money to upgrade my home and refi earlier than maybe the formula shows. And so we market the heck out of it, but we don't see a lot of takers.

其中一部分是26%我們的買家都是現金。那些獲得抵押貸款的人的 LTV 為 69%。我認為也許他們顯然更富有。也許他們的抵押貸款比原本要低。對於活躍的成年人來說尤其如此，LTV 可能接近50%，因為他們從現有房屋中獲得更多資產，而且他們自己想，我寧願用這些錢來升級我的房屋和重新裝修，而不是更早公式顯示。所以我們大力推銷它，但我們沒有看到很多接受者。

Okay. Well, I appreciate that answer. It's very great. Many other builders have been using forward commitments to push close to completion specs. Are you guys doing any of that?

好的。嗯，我很欣賞這個答案。太棒了。許多其他建築商一直在利用遠期承諾來推動接近完工規格。你們有這樣做嗎？

Yes. Yes. And the further along the home is, the less expensive the buydown is because you can lock a lower rate for 60 days. or less cost than locking that rate for, 90 or 120. So yes.

是的。是的。離房屋越遠，購買的費用就越便宜，因為您可以在 60 天內鎖定較低的利率。或比鎖定該費率 90 或 120 的成本更低。所以是的。

Buy downs got cheaper over the last month as well.

上個月買入的價格也變得更便宜。

Buy downs definitely got cheaper. You're buying down from 7.25% instead of [8.8%]. So thank you, Marty. That's exactly right. The other nice piece of news here that I'll throw in. The loan limit on a conforming Fannie Freddie is up $313,000 since 2018. Just went up again. And that helps the business.

買跌肯定變得更便宜了。您購買的價格是 7.25%，而不是 [8.8%]。謝謝你，馬蒂。完全正確。我要在這裡介紹的另一個好消息是，自 2018 年以來，符合標準的房利美 (Fannie Freddie) 的貸款限額提高了 313,000 美元。剛剛又提高了。這對業務有幫助。

And our next question today comes from John Lovallo with UBS.

今天我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的約翰‧洛瓦洛。

Just a couple of quick ones. The first one, just following up on Ray's question. The comment that you guys made about a little bit better than normal seasonality, was that specific to absorption? Or was that for the -- for total orders in the first quarter for order growth?

只是幾個快速的。第一個，只是跟進雷的問題。你們所說的比正常季節性好一點的評論是專門針對吸收的嗎？還是第一季總訂單量的訂單成長？

Absorption.

吸收。

As measured by deposits.

以存款衡量。

As measured right now by deposits.

目前以存款衡量。

For our community.

為了我們的社區。

Because whenever we give you guys some flavor on what's happened since the end of the quarter to the call, and it's usually 3 or 4 weeks, but because it's fiscal year-end, it's 5 weeks. That information is always based on deposit activity because, as you know, we take a deposit that can then take 2, 3, sometimes we hope not, but sometimes 4 weeks to convert from deposit to agreement on that subject, another good stat.

因為每當我們向大家介紹自季度末到電話會議以來所發生的情況時，通常需要 3 到 4 週，但因為是財年末，所以需要 5 週。這些資訊始終基於存款活動，因為如您所知，我們收取一筆存款，然後可以收取2、3 筆存款，有時我們希望不要，但有時需要4 週才能從存款轉換為就該主題達成的協議，這是另一個很好的統計數據。

Historically, we run about 68% of our deposits convert to agreement. In the fourth quarter, 79% of the deposits converted to agreement. So when the people go through the process, they pick their lot, they give us the deposit, they start the process of finalizing their lot choice, their home design, their upgrades. It's sticky. It's now up to 79% of those deposits move forward.

從歷史上看，我們大約 68% 的存款都轉換為協議存款。第四季度，79%的存款轉為協議存款。因此，當人們完成這個過程時，他們會選擇自己的地塊，給我們押金，然後開始最終確定地塊選擇、家居設計和升級的過程。它很粘。目前，其中高達 79% 的存款已被轉期。

Okay. That's really helpful. And then a quick follow-up here. In your outlook, how are you guys sort of thinking about mortgage rates? I mean, I guess the question is, if rates were to stay at a similar level than they were today, how much risk is there to what you guys are talking about today?

好的。這真的很有幫助。然後在這裡進行快速跟進。在你們看來，你們如何看待房貸利率？我的意思是，我想問題是，如果利率保持在與今天相似的水平，那麼你們今天談論的風險有多大？

Little. We sold a lot of houses at 8%. We'll sell more houses at 7.25%. And if my long monologue about where the 10-year is and where the 170 spread typically is and where we think things are coming. If I'm right, we can break through that 7 into 6 land. Yes, every time there's a drop in rates, our business should get better. That's proven true over the last couple of years. So we are optimistic.

小的。我們以8%的價格賣掉了很多房子。我們將以 7.25% 的價格出售更多房屋。如果我的長篇獨白是關於 10 年期和 170 年期通常在哪裡以及我們認為事情會發生什麼。如果我是對的，我們就能突破七成六的土地。是的，每當費率下降時，我們的業務就會變得更好。過去幾年證明了這一點。所以我們很樂觀。

And our final question today comes from Truman Patterson with Wolfe.

今天我們的最後一個問題來自杜魯門·帕特森和沃爾夫。

First, I just want to make sure for clarity. When you were talking about 24 inventory dollars overall kind of being flattish is the expectation, that included homes under construction and land as well, correct?

首先，我只想確保清楚。當你談論 24 美元的庫存時，總體上是持平的預期，其中包括在建房屋和土地，對嗎？

Yes. I mean the land spend is a little tough to really project this early compared to the end of the year, but yes.

是的。我的意思是，與年底相比，這麼早就真正預測土地支出有點困難，但是是的。

Yes. Yes. Understood. Just 2 quick ones for me. You all rely pretty heavily on realtors given your consumer base. I'm hoping you can remind us what portion of your sales have a realtor associated with them? Once you're kind of typical broker commission and just any thoughts on the preliminary NAR ruling and the impact on your business.

是的。是的。明白了。對我來說只有 2 個快速的。考慮到你們的消費者基礎，你們都非常依賴房地產經紀人。我希望您能提醒我們您銷售的哪一部分與房地產經紀人相關？一旦您成為典型的經紀人佣金，並且對 NAR 初步裁決以及對您業務的影響有任何想法。

Sure. So 2/3 of our sales involve a outside realtor representing our client. On average, we pay that realtor 2.25% of the delivered price of the home. When you do the math, that comes out to 1.5% of total revenue of the company is with third-party realtors. It's too early to comment on the NAR litigation. Obviously, there's appeals and there's other litigation that has popped up since that case. But I think longer term, the industry, we are all encouraged to believe that the third-party commissions will be coming down.

當然。因此，我們 2/3 的銷售涉及代表我們客戶的外部房地產經紀人。平均而言，我們向房地產經紀人支付房屋交付價格的 2.25%。如果你算一下，你會發現公司總收入的 1.5% 來自第三方房地產經紀人。現在對 NAR 訴訟發表評論還為時過早。顯然，自該案發生以來，也出現了上訴和其他訴訟。但我認為從長遠來看，整個行業，我們都相信第三方佣金將會下降。

Okay. Perfect. And then, Doug, you mentioned eventually getting to 60% option land. I'm just trying to understand, do you think that could potentially take a pause in '24 on that progression? We've just been hearing that developer cost of capital and availability is tightening. So it might make it a little more expensive to option those deals, perhaps find better raw land owned deals that you could possibly bring on your balance sheet? Just trying to understand how you're thinking about opportunities in '24 there.

好的。完美的。然後，道格，你提到最終獲得 60% 的土地選擇權。我只是想了解一下，您認為這可能會在 24 年暫停這一進程嗎？我們剛剛聽說開發商的資金成本和可用性正在收緊。因此，選擇這些交易可能會變得更加昂貴，也許會找到更好的原始土地擁有交易，您可以將其納入您的資產負債表？只是想了解您如何看待 24 年的機會。

Yes. I think it's a fair comment, Truman. We -- land banking got more expensive. And so we probably did a little bit less land banking which is one of the reasons that we didn't option as much land. However, we are -- even though we're at 50% owned, 50% optioned and the progression to 60-40 may take a bit more time, that doesn't change our obsession with capital efficiency with driving IRRs and therefore, ROEs because we're not going to land bank it, which may keep it off our books and keep it option longer.

是的。我認為這是一個公平的評論，杜魯門。我們——土地儲備變得更昂貴。因此，我們可能會少做一點土地儲備，這也是我們沒有選擇那麼多土地的原因之一。然而，即使我們擁有 50% 的股權、50% 的期權，並且向 60-40 的進步可能需要更多時間，但這並沒有改變我們對資本效率的痴迷，從而推動 IRR 和 ROE因為我們不會將其土地儲備起來，這可能會將其從我們的帳簿中剔除，並使其保留更長時間。

We're going to get terms from our land sellers to purchase money mortgages, where even though we own the land, we don't pay for it until some date in the future through a purchase money mortgage format. So the IRRs are still being driven and are still very much focused on as we underwrite land even if it's taking a bit longer to move the option bucket higher.

我們將從土地賣家那裡獲得購買貨幣抵押貸款的條款，即使我們擁有土地，我們也不會在未來的某個日期透過購買貨幣抵押貸款形式支付它。因此，內部報酬率仍在受到推動，並且仍然非常關注我們承保土地的情況，即使需要更長的時間才能將選擇桶推高。

Thank you. This concludes our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to management for any closing remarks.

謝謝。我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回管理階層進行閉幕致詞。

Thank you, [Rocco]. You've been terrific. Thank you, everyone, for your interest and support of our great company, and we wish all of you a wonderful holiday season.

謝謝你，[羅科]。你已經很棒了。感謝大家對我們偉大公司的關注和支持，祝大家假期愉快。

Thank you. The conference has now concluded, and we thank you all for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines, and have a wonderful day.

謝謝。會議現已結束，感謝大家參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開線路，度過美好的一天。