托爾兄弟 (TOL) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Toll Brothers Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2023 Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) The company is planning to end the call at 9:30 when the market opens. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Douglas Yearley, CEO. Please go ahead.

早上好，歡迎參加 Toll Brothers 2023 財年第三季度電話會議。 （操作員指示）該公司計劃在 9:30 開市時結束通話。 （操作員說明）請注意此事件正在被記錄。我現在想將會議交給首席執行官道格拉斯·耶爾利 (Douglas Yearley)。請繼續。

Thank you, Betsy. Good morning. Welcome, and thank you all for joining us. Before I begin, I ask you to read our statement on forward-looking information in our earnings release of last night and on our website. I caution you that many statements on this call are forward-looking based on assumptions about the economy, world events, housing and financial markets, interest rates, the availability of labor and materials inflation and many other factors beyond our control that could significantly affect future results. With me today are Martin Connor, Chief Financial Officer; Rob Parahus, President and Chief Operating Officer; Fred Cooper, Senior VP of Finance and Investor Relations; Wendy Marlett, Chief Marketing Officer; and Gregg Ziegler, Senior VP and Treasurer.

謝謝你，貝特西。早上好。歡迎，並感謝大家加入我們。在開始之前，我請您閱讀我們昨晚發布的收益報告和我們網站上有關前瞻性信息的聲明。我提醒您，本次電話會議中的許多陳述都是前瞻性的，基於對經濟、世界事件、住房和金融市場、利率、勞動力和材料通脹以及許多其他我們無法控制的因素的假設，這些因素可能會嚴重影響未來結果。今天和我在一起的有首席財務官馬丁·康納 (Martin Connor)；羅布·帕拉胡斯 (Rob Parahus)，總裁兼首席運營官； Fred Cooper，財務和投資者關係高級副總裁；溫迪·馬萊特，首席營銷官；以及高級副總裁兼財務主管 Gregg Ziegler。

We had another terrific quarter and are very pleased with our fiscal third quarter results. We beat our guidance for home sales revenues, adjusted gross margin, SG&A margin and earnings. Our quarter end backlog of 7,295 homes and $7.9 billion is strong, and our cancellations remain very low.

我們又度過了一個出色的季度，並對第三季度的財務業績感到非常滿意。我們的房屋銷售收入、調整後毛利率、SG&A 利潤率和收益超出了預期。我們季度末積壓的房屋數量為 7,295 套，價值 79 億美元，數量強勁，而且取消訂單仍然非常低。

The market for new homes is solid, and we are well positioned with the right strategy in place to take advantage of it. As a result, we are raising our full year guidance for all of our core homebuilding metrics, including deliveries, adjusted gross margin and SG&A margin. We now project earnings of between $11.50 and $12 per diluted share in fiscal 2023 and a return on beginning equity of approximately 22%.

新房市場穩固，我們已做好充分準備，制定了正確的策略來利用這一市場。因此，我們提高了所有核心住宅建築指標的全年指引，包括交付量、調整後毛利率和銷售、一般行政費用 (SG&A) 利潤率。我們現在預計 2023 財年稀釋後每股收益將在 11.50 美元至 12 美元之間，期初股本回報率約為 22%。

In the quarter, we delivered 2,524 homes at an average price of $1.006 million, leading to record third quarter home sales revenues of $2.7 billion. Adjusted gross margin was 29.3% or 140 basis points above last year's third quarter, and our SG&A expense was 8.6% of home sales revenues 170 basis points better than last year.

本季度，我們交付了 2,524 套房屋，平均價格為 100.6 萬美元，第三季度房屋銷售收入達到創紀錄的 27 億美元。調整後毛利率為 29.3%，比去年第三季度高出 140 個基點，SG&A 費用佔房屋銷售收入的 8.6%，比去年高出 170 個基點。

Our margins continue to benefit from cost controls and greater leverage from higher revenues. With a significant beat on our top line and improved margin performance, we delivered earnings per share of $3.73, a third quarter record.

我們的利潤率繼續受益於成本控制和收入增加帶來的更大槓桿作用。憑藉我們的收入大幅增長和利潤率表現的改善，我們實現了每股收益 3.73 美元，創第三季度紀錄。

We signed 2,245 net contracts for $2.2 billion in our third quarter, up 77% in units and 30% in dollars compared to last year's third quarter when mortgage rates were much lower in the 5% to 6% range. On a per community basis, we sold at a pace of 2.2 homes per month compared to 1.3 last year and 2.3 last quarter.

第三季度，我們簽署了2,245 份淨合同，價值22 億美元，與去年第三季度相比，單位數量增長了77%，美元增長了30%，當時抵押貸款利率低得多，在5% 至6% 的範圍內。按每個社區計算，我們每月售出 2.2 套房屋，而去年為 1.3 套，上季度為 2.3 套。

Demand was stronger than normal in our third quarter compared to the second, with contracts down only 4% sequentially versus the long-term average of down 15%. Remember, the second quarter is historically stronger than the third since it is in the heart of the spring selling season.

與第二季度相比，第三季度的需求強於正常水平，合約環比僅下降 4%，而長期平均水平下降 15%。請記住，從歷史上看，第二季度比第三季度強勁，因為它正處於春季銷售季節的中心。

So running almost flat Q3 to Q2 is very encouraging, particularly with rates higher in Q3 than Q2. Demand was also solid across both geography and product lines in our third quarter and we raised price by an average of $20,000. We saw particular strength in the Mountain and South regions where we tend to have lower average prices.

因此，第三季度到第二季度幾乎持平是非常令人鼓舞的，特別是第三季度的利率高於第二季度。第三季度，各個地區和產品線的需求也很強勁，我們將價格平均提高了 20,000 美元。我們看到山區和南部地區的表現尤其強勁，這些地區的平均價格往往較低。

Due to the shift in mix and notwithstanding the price increase, our average sales price was flat compared to the second quarter. In terms of cadence, we saw a relatively steady number of deposits and contracts each month of the third quarter. Actually, June was our strongest month when normally, July is strongest.

由於產品組合的變化，儘管價格有所上漲，但我們的平均銷售價格與第二季度持平。從節奏來看，第三季度每個月的存款和合同數量相對穩定。事實上，六月是我們最強的月份，而通常情況下，七月是最強的。

Often, that is influenced by a sales event. And this year, we ran a national sales event in June rather than July. As we start our fourth quarter, demand remains solid. August deposits are usually down 25% to 30% versus July based on long-term historical trends as summer winds down and kids returned to school. So far in August, deposits are only down 11% and both physical and web traffic is up slightly compared to July.

通常，這會受到銷售活動的影響。今年，我們在六月而不是七月舉辦了全國銷售活動。隨著第四季度的開始，需求依然強勁。根據長期歷史趨勢，隨著夏季結束和孩子們重返校園，8 月份的存款通常比 7 月份下降 25% 至 30%。到目前為止，8 月份的存款僅下降了 11%，而實體流量和網絡流量與 7 月份相比均略有上升。

While it is only 3 weeks, this is encouraging considering the increase in mortgage rates that has occurred during this period. We attribute the solid demand for new homes, at least in part to the well-publicized shortage of existing homes for sale. Existing homeowners are clearly reluctant to give up their low-rate mortgages. And while rising rates remain a challenge for the overall industry, they further cement the lock-in effect that is kept to resell inventory at historically low levels.

雖然只有三週，但考慮到在此期間抵押貸款利率的上升，這令人鼓舞。我們將新房的強勁需求歸因於廣為人知的待售現房短缺。現有房主顯然不願意放棄低利率抵押貸款。儘管利率上升仍然是整個行業面臨的挑戰，但它們進一步鞏固了轉售庫存處於歷史低位的鎖定效應。

This has become a tailwind for homebuilders and especially the larger well-capitalized builders who build at lower costs and are better positioned to take advantage of spec building and buying down mortgage rates. The supply/demand imbalance created by low resale inventory, compounds the impact of the persistent underbuilding of homes over the past 15 years. Even before resale inventory dropped, there was a structural shortage of anywhere between 3 million and 6 million homes in this country.

這已成為房屋建築商的順風車，尤其是資本雄厚的大型建築商，他們以較低的成本建造，並且更有能力利用規格建設和降低抵押貸款利率。低轉售庫存造成的供需失衡加劇了過去 15 年房屋建設持續不足的影響。即使在轉售庫存下降之前，這個國家就已經存在 300 萬至 600 萬套房屋的結構性短缺。

In addition, demographic and migration trends continue to provide long-term support for the industry with millennials forming families and buying their first home later in life when they have higher incomes and accumulated wealth. AB boomers who are either retiring or planning for it are also moving as they adjust to their new lifestyles.

此外，人口和移民趨勢繼續為該行業提供長期支持，千禧一代組建家庭，並在晚年擁有更高收入和積累財富時購買第一套房子。即將退休或計劃退休的 AB 嬰兒潮一代也在適應新的生活方式。

There also appears to be an increase in generational wealth transfer with parents helping their kids buy homes. All of these factors combined have kept demand for new homes solid in the face of higher rates, and we are benefiting. Our strategy of increasing our supply of spec homes, which we implemented several quarters ago, has helped us meet demand while also helping to improve our cycle times.

隨著父母幫助孩子買房，代際財富轉移似乎也有所增加。所有這些因素結合起來，在利率上漲的情況下保持了對新房的需求穩定，我們正在受益。我們在幾個季度前實施的增加規格住宅供應的戰略幫助我們滿足了需求，同時也幫助我們縮短了周期時間。

Our spec homes represented approximately 40% of our orders in the third quarter, and we expect that to continue in the near term. Specs were 28% of deliveries in the third quarter. We define a spec as any home without a buyer that has a foundation poured. We sell our specs at various stages of construction with a preference to sell before we finish the homes as many of our buyers want to personalize their homes. In this way, our buyers are able to select their fixtures, appliances, flooring and other finishing options while we benefit from a faster and more efficient construction schedule.

我們的規格住宅約佔第三季度訂單的 40%，我們預計這種情況在短期內將持續下去。規格佔第三季度交付量的 28%。我們將規格定義為任何沒有買家且已澆築地基的房屋。我們在施工的各個階段出售我們的規格，並優先在房屋完工之前出售，因為我們的許多買家都希望個性化他們的房屋。通過這種方式，我們的買家能夠選擇他們的固定裝置、電器、地板和其他裝修選項，同時我們也受益於更快、更高效的施工進度。

At third quarter end, our backlog stood at $7.9 billion and 7,295 homes. Our cancellation rate as a percentage of backlog was 3.2% in the third quarter, down from 3.9% in the second quarter. Our industry low cancellation rate is due to significant upfront down payments our buyers make as well as the emotional attachment they form as they personalize their homes with us.

截至第三季度末，我們的積壓訂單為 7,295 套，價值 79 億美元。第三季度我們的取消率佔積壓訂單的百分比為 3.2%，低於第二季度的 3.9%。我們行業中較低的取消率是由於我們的買家支付了大量的預付款，以及他們在與我們一起個性化他們的房屋時形成的情感依戀。

Our buyers also tend to be more affluent. In the third quarter, 25% of our buyers paid all cash, up from 23% in the second quarter and our long-term average of 20%. Buyers who do take a mortgage make higher down payments with an average LTV of 68% in this past quarter. We are also seeing modest improvements in our cycle times of supply chains and labor constraints continue to ease and as we increase production of spec homes.

我們的買家也往往更加富裕。第三季度，25% 的買家支付了全部現金，高於第二季度的 23% 和長期平均水平 20%。接受抵押貸款的買家在上個季度支付了更高的首付，平均貸款價值比 (LTV) 為 68%。隨著我們增加規格住宅的產量，我們還看到供應鏈週期時間略有改善，勞動力限制繼續緩解。

We expect cycle times to continue to improve as we move forward, which should further benefit our already strong cash flows. Turning to land. At the end of our fiscal third quarter, we owned or controlled 70,200 lots, half of which were controlled and the other half owned.

我們預計，隨著我們的前進，週期時間將繼續改善，這將進一步有利於我們本已強勁的現金流。轉向陸地。截至第三財季末，我們擁有或控制 70,200 塊土地，其中一半是控制的，另一半是擁有的。

Excluding the 7,295 lots committed to home buyers in our backlog, our controlled land represents 56% of total lots. Our lot count is down nearly 15% year-over-year, which reflects our selective approach to buying land and our focus on ROE and capital efficiency. Still, this land position provides us with sufficient land needed for growth in fiscal year 2024 and beyond, and allows us to continue being selective and disciplined in our approach to buying land.

不包括我們積壓中向購房者承諾的 7,295 塊土地，我們控制的土地佔總土地的 56%。我們的地塊數量同比下降了近 15%，這反映了我們對購買土地的選擇性方法以及我們對 ROE 和資本效率的關注。儘管如此，這種土地狀況為我們提供了 2024 財年及以後增長所需的充足土地，並使我們能夠繼續在購買土地方面保持選擇性和紀律性。

Since the start of the third quarter, we repurchased $163 million of our common stock bringing our year-to-date repurchase to $265 million at an average price of $68. We have also paid $69 million in dividends year-to-date. We expect buybacks and dividends to remain an important part of our capital allocation priorities well into the future.

自第三季度初以來，我們回購了 1.63 億美元的普通股，使年初至今的回購額達到 2.65 億美元，平均價格為 68 美元。今年迄今為止，我們還支付了 6900 萬美元的股息。我們預計回購和股息在未來仍將是我們資本配置優先事項的重要組成部分。

As a reminder, we have planned for $400 million of share repurchases in fiscal 2023. Assuming we buy back an additional $144 million at the current price in the fourth quarter, which would get us to the $400 million for the year, we will have bought back about 5% of our diluted share count at the beginning of the year. With that, I'll turn it over to Marty.

提醒一下，我們計劃在2023 財年回購4 億美元的股票。假設我們在第四季度按當前價格額外回購1.44 億美元，這將使我們全年回購4 億美元，那麼我們將回購股票收回年初稀釋後股份數量的約 5%。有了這個，我會把它交給馬蒂。

Thanks, Doug. It was a great quarter. We grew earnings per share by 59% and net income by 52% over last year. Homebuilding revenue of $2.7 billion was a third quarter record and increased 19% compared to 1 year ago. We delivered 2,524 homes in the quarter, up 5% year-over-year. With the outperformance in the third quarter, we are raising our full year deliveries guidance.

謝謝，道格。這是一個很棒的季度。與去年相比，我們的每股收益增長了 59%，淨利潤增長了 52%。住宅建築收入 27 億美元，創第三季度歷史新高，與一年前相比增長 19%。本季度我們交付了 2,524 套房屋，同比增長 5%。鑑於第三季度的優異表現，我們提高了全年交付指引。

We now expect to deliver between 9,500 and 9,600 homes, an increase of approximately 200 homes at the midpoint of our previous guidance. We are also increasing our guidance for full year average delivered price to between $1.005 million and $1.015 million. This translates to a homebuilding revenue projection of approximately $9.65 billion at the midpoint for the full year. We signed 2,245 net contracts in the third quarter for $2.2 billion, up 77% in dollars and 30% in units over last year.

我們現在預計交付 9,500 至 9,600 套房屋，比我們之前指導的中點增加了約 200 套。我們還將全年平均交付價格指引提高至 100.5 萬美元至 101.5 萬美元之間。這意味著全年中點住宅建築收入預計約為 96.5 億美元。第三季度，我們淨簽署了 2,245 份合同，價值 22 億美元，按美元計較去年增長 77%，按單位計較去年增長 30%。

The average price of contracts signed in the quarter was approximately $964,000, which was down 1.1% compared to our second quarter average price of $975,000. As Doug noted, we actually raised price by an average of $20,000 in the third quarter through base price increases and reduced incentives; which was offset by changes in mix.

本季度簽訂的合同平均價格約為 964,000 美元，比第二季度的平均價格 975,000 美元下降 1.1%。正如 Doug 指出的那樣，我們實際上通過提高基本價格和減少激勵措施，在第三季度將價格平均提高了 20,000 美元；這被混合的變化所抵消。

Turning back to the P&L. Pretax income was $553 million compared to $366 million in the third quarter of fiscal 2022. Net income was $414.8 million or $3.73 per share diluted compared to $273.5 million and $2.35 -- to $2.35 per share diluted 1 year ago.

回到損益表。稅前收入為5.53 億美元，而2022 財年第三季度為3.66 億美元。淨利潤為4.148 億美元，即攤薄後每股收益3.73 美元，而一年前為2.735 億美元，攤薄後淨利潤為2.35 美元，即每股攤薄後2.35 美元。

Our third quarter adjusted gross margin was 29.3%, compared to 27.9% in the third quarter of 2022 and 160 basis points better than projected. The improvement was due primarily to better cost control and fixed cost leverage on higher-than-expected home sales revenues.

我們第三季度調整後毛利率為 29.3%，而 2022 年第三季度為 27.9%，比預期高 160 個基點。這一改善主要歸功於更好的成本控制以及對高於預期的房屋銷售收入的固定成本槓桿。

We are raising our full year adjusted gross margin guidance from 27.8% to 28.5%. This 28.5% is also what we expect in our fourth quarter. Note that our fourth quarter gross margin guidance includes the impact of homes that we sold a year ago in a softer sales environment.

我們將全年調整後毛利率指引從 27.8% 上調至 28.5%。這個 28.5% 也是我們對第四季度的預期。請注意，我們第四季度的毛利率指引包括我們一年前在銷售環境疲軟的情況下出售的房屋的影響。

SG&A as a percentage of revenue was 8.6% in the third quarter compared to 10.3% in the third quarter of last year. And this is 170 basis points better than projected. In dollar terms, our SG&A expense was $4 million lower this quarter compared to the third quarter of fiscal year '22 despite over $400 million of additional home sales revenue and the impact of inflation.

第三季度銷售、管理及行政費用佔收入的百分比為 8.6%，而去年第三季度為 10.3%。這比預期好 170 個基點。以美元計算，儘管房屋銷售收入增加了 4 億美元，並且受到通貨膨脹的影響，但與 22 財年第三季度相比，本季度我們的 SG&A 費用減少了 400 萬美元。

As we've pointed out before, we've been very focused on becoming more efficient, and we are now seeing the benefits flow through our results. We are projecting full year SG&A costs to be approximately 9.4% of home sales revenues, which represents a 60 basis point improvement from our prior guidance.

正如我們之前指出的，我們一直非常注重提高效率，現在我們看到了我們的成果所帶來的好處。我們預計全年 SG&A 成本將佔房屋銷售收入的 9.4% 左右，這比我們之前的指導提高了 60 個基點。

For the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2023, we expect SG&A to be approximately 8.8% of home sales revenue. Third quarter JV, land sales and other income was $39.4 million in the quarter or $14.4 million above our guidance. We now expect our full year joint venture land sales and other income to be approximately $105 million, down from the $125 million previously projected.

對於 2023 財年第四季度，我們預計 SG&A 約佔房屋銷售收入的 8.8%。第三季度合資企業、土地銷售和其他收入為 3,940 萬美元，比我們的指導水平高出 1,440 萬美元。我們現在預計全年合資土地銷售和其他收入約為 1.05 億美元，低於之前預測的 1.25 億美元。

This is due primarily to a challenged market for apartment building asset sales. Our new guidance assumes we closed the sale of three stabilized apartment communities that we expect to sell in this fourth quarter. Our tax rate in the third quarter was 25%, 100 basis points better than our guidance.

這主要是由於公寓樓資產銷售市場面臨挑戰。我們的新指導假設我們完成了預計在第四季度出售的三個穩定公寓社區的銷售。我們第三季度的稅率為 25%，比我們的指導值高 100 個基點。

We expect our fourth quarter tax rate to be 26%, which would bring the full year rate to approximately 25.4%. We expect interest in cost of sales to be approximately 1.5% in the fourth quarter and for the full year as we continue to benefit from our reduced leverage.

我們預計第四季度的稅率為 26%，這將使全年稅率達到約 25.4%。我們預計第四季度和全年的銷售成本利息約為 1.5%，因為我們繼續受益於槓桿率的降低。

We expect community count to be approximately 375 by fiscal year-end with continued growth in fiscal year 2024. Our weighted average share count is expected to be approximately 111 million for the full year and 109.5 million for the fourth quarter.

我們預計到財年末，社區數量將達到約 375 個，並在 2024 財年繼續增長。我們的加權平均股份數量預計全年約為 1.11 億股，第四季度為 1.095 億股。

We reiterate our guidance for approximately $400 million of share repurchase a year, implying approximately $150 million of buybacks in the fourth quarter. Putting this all together, we expect to earn between $11.50 and $12 per share in fiscal year 2023. We expect to achieve a full year return on beginning equity of approximately 22%, and we expect to bring our book value to approximately $65 per share at year-end. This would be the second year in a row, we earned well over $1 billion, and this is in a period when mortgage rates doubled from slightly over 3% in November of 2021 and to their current level, around 7.5%.

我們重申每年約 4 億美元的股票回購指引，這意味著第四季度回購約 1.5 億美元。綜上所述，我們預計 2023 財年的每股收益將在 11.50 美元至 12 美元之間。我們預計全年期初股本回報率將達到約 22%，我們預計每股賬面價值將達到約 65 美元。年底。這將是我們連續第二年賺取超過10 億美元的收入，而在此期間，抵押貸款利率從2021 年11 月的略高於3% 翻了一番，達到目前的水平，約為7.5% 。

In addition, since 2020, we have generated an average of $1.1 billion of operating cash flow per year and we expect 2023 to also exceed $1 billion. Turning to the balance sheet. We finished the quarter with a net debt-to-capital ratio of 20.5%, $1 billion in cash and cash equivalents and $1.8 billion available under our $1.9 billion revolving bank credit facility providing us with ample flexibility to both grow our business and return capital to stockholders.

此外，自2020年以來，我們平均每年產生11億美元的運營現金流，預計2023年也將超過10億美元。轉向資產負債表。本季度結束時，我們的淨債務與資本比率為20.5%，現金和現金等價物為10 億美元，19 億美元循環銀行信貸額度下可提供18 億美元，為我們發展業務和返還資本提供了足夠的靈活性。股東。

We also have no significant bank or senior debt maturities due until November 2025, which is fiscal year '26 for us. In recognition of our financial position, the solid demand for new homes and strong fundamentals underpinning the market as well as our favorable long-term prospects, Standard & Poor's upgraded our credit ratings to investment grade this quarter. We are now rated investment grade by all three major credit rating agencies. Now let me turn it back to Doug.

在 2025 年 11 月（對我們來說是第 26 財年）之前，我們也沒有到期的重大銀行或高級債務。鑑於我們的財務狀況、對新房的強勁需求、支撐市場的強勁基本面以及我們良好的長期前景，標準普爾本季度將我們的信用評級提升至投資級。我們現在被三大信用評級機構評為投資級。現在讓我把它轉回給道格。

Thanks, Marty. Before I open it up for questions, I'd like to recognize the hard work and dedication of all of our great Toll Brothers employees. It is your passion for our business and commitment to our customers that will ensure our continued success. Betsy, let's open it up for questions.

謝謝，馬蒂。在開始提問之前，我想對所有偉大的 Toll Brothers 員工的辛勤工作和奉獻精神表示認可。您對我們業務的熱情和對客戶的承諾將確保我們持續成功。貝特西，讓我們開始提問吧。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, the company is planning to end the call at 9:30 when the market open. (Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）謹此提醒，公司計劃於 9:30 開市時結束通話。 （操作員說明）

The first question today comes from Rafe Jadrosich of Bank of America.

今天的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Rafe Jadrosich。

Doug, I wanted to follow up on a comment you made earlier on the gross margin. You're seeing the fourth quarter outlook for 28.5% includes the impact of homes that were sold last year in a softer sales environment. How do we -- you have more visibility than other builders on the gross margin outlook. How do we think about how that goes going forward, just given that we saw at the beginning of the year, the sales environment that definitely improved.

道格，我想跟進您之前對毛利率的評論。您會看到 28.5% 的第四季度前景包括去年在銷售環境疲軟的情況下出售的房屋的影響。我們如何——您比其他建築商對毛利率前景有更多的了解。鑑於我們在年初看到銷售環境明顯改善，我們如何看待未來的發展。

Sure. So we'll give full guidance in December as we always do for 2024. And so we're not going to get ahead of ourselves right now. Marty's comment and our guidance, which is about 80 basis points lower than the 29.3% gross margin we achieved in Q3 for a 28.5% and in Q4 was just a reminder that if you go back 12 to 15 months, the market has slowed dramatically. That's why if you remember, back in April of '22, it's when rates went up dramatically and late spring of '22 through the summer and fall, the market softened dramatically, we reminded everyone back then that we were not going to chase the bottom and we didn't.

當然。因此，我們將在 12 月提供全面的指導，就像我們在 2024 年所做的那樣。因此，我們現在不會超前。 Marty 的評論和我們的指導意見（比第三季度毛利率 29.3% 低約 80 個基點，第四季度毛利率為 28.5%）只是提醒我們，如果回顧 12 到 15 個月，市場已經大幅放緩。這就是為什麼你是否還記得，早在 22 年 4 月，利率急劇上升，從 22 年春末到夏季和秋季，市場急劇疲軟，我們當時提醒大家，我們不會追底但我們沒有。

And so an 80 basis point drop is pretty well range-bound when you think about Q4 is going to represent a bit more of the sales that occurred back in that period of time. But it's -- again, it's only 80 basis points. Some of the sales from that slower time will continue into the beginning of '24.

因此，當您考慮到第四季度將代表該時期發生的更多銷售時，80 個基點的下降是相當範圍內的。但同樣，只有 80 個基點。那個較慢時期的一些銷售將持續到 24 年初。

But we're not going to get into the specific guidance until December on where the first quarter of '24 and the balance of the year comes out. But there is some shorter-term pressure, but the pressure is modest because we did not chase the bottom. Some of the other builders, as you know, had a pretty dramatic drop in margin for the sales that came through that period of time. And as you can see, based on our guide for the next quarter, our impact is very minimal.

但我們要到 12 月才會討論 24 年第一季度和今年剩餘時間的具體指導。但短期有一些壓力，但壓力不大，因為我們沒有追底。如您所知，其他一些建築商在那段時間的銷售利潤率大幅下降。正如您所看到的，根據我們下一季度的指南，我們的影響非常小。

That's very helpful. And then just we've seen an improvement on the backlog conversion over the last few quarters here. How do we think about additional opportunity going forward? Where are you versus your kind of historical average? And how do we think that could play out over the next few quarters?

這非常有幫助。然後我們就看到了過去幾個季度積壓訂單轉化率的改善。我們如何看待未來的額外機會？與您的歷史平均水平相比，您處於什麼位置？我們認為未來幾個季度會如何發展？

Well Ray, I think we expect to see better backlog conversion because of reduced cycle times on the [to-be] builds as we are in a more stable supply chain environment, we've addressed some reductions in SKUs, and we're getting better at building the to-be builds. But the big piece is going to come from more specs. Specs this quarter were 28% of deliveries. We're targeting 40% of sales. We achieved that this quarter. And so they'll be 40% of deliveries and they'll have a little bit less time in backlog, a lot less time in backlog than a to-be built.

好吧，雷，我認為我們期望看到更好的積壓轉換，因為我們處於更穩定的供應鏈環境中，因此[未來]構建的周期時間減少了，我們已經解決了SKU 的一些減少問題，並且我們正在得到更好地構建未來的構建。但重要的部分將來自更多的規格。本季度的規格佔交付量的 28%。我們的目標是佔銷售額的 40%。我們本季度實現了這一目標。因此，它們將佔交付量的 40%，並且積壓的時間會少一些，比即將建造的積壓時間要少得多。

The next question comes from Michael Rio with JP Morgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的邁克爾·里奧。

This is Andrew Rose on for Mike. I just wanted to get a sense of kind of regionally, market by market where you're seeing that ability to push price a little bit better and where it's a little bit more summer?

這是邁克的安德魯·羅斯。我只是想了解一下各個地區、各個市場的情況，您是否認為有能力將價格推高一點，以及夏天的時間長一點？

Sure. So really pleased nationwide. And by the way, the $20,000 price increase we saw in Q3, I know the question will come up, it's about a $10,000 drop in incentive plus a $10,000 increase in the base price or the sales sheet price. The incentive was about $55,000 in Q2 when it went to $45,000 in Q3 and then the price went up by 10%. That's on average.

當然。全國范圍內真的很高興。順便說一句，我們在第三季度看到的價格上漲了 20,000 美元，我知道問題會出現，大約是激勵措施減少 10,000 美元，加上基本價格或銷售單價增加 10,000 美元。第二季度的激勵金額約為 55,000 美元，第三季度達到 45,000 美元，然後價格上漲了 10%。這是平均水平。

And it's not everywhere, some areas are more. We still have some locations where we've gone to -- we're still doing final and best seal bid on select communities or select inventory. The best markets, and we mentioned the Mountain and the South had done the best this past quarter.

而且也不是到處都有，有的地區比較多。我們仍然有一些我們去過的地方——我們仍在對選定的社區或選定的庫存進行最終和最佳密封投標。最好的市場，我們提到山區和南部在上個季度表現最好。

Denver, very strong. Boise, Idaho is back in a big way after taking a pause. Southern California, very strong. Atlanta, New Jersey and Pennsylvania, very strong and then all of Florida, a bit softer where we're still feeling a little bit of pain. Phoenix hasn't come back yet. It's better, but it hasn't come back as we look forward to it coming back at some point, but not yet. And then on that list, I'd also throw in Portland, Oregon, which is a very small market for us, but that has been a bit softer.

丹佛，很強。愛達荷州博伊西在短暫休息後強勢回歸。南加州，很強。亞特蘭大、新澤西州和賓夕法尼亞州非常強勁，然後是整個佛羅里達州，稍微柔和一些，但我們仍然感到有點疼痛。鳳凰還沒回來。它好多了，但它還沒有回來，因為我們期待它在某個時候回來，但現在還沒有。然後在這個名單上，我還會考慮俄勒岡州波特蘭市，這對我們來說是一個非常小的市場，但情況要軟一些。

Thank you for that granularity. I appreciate it. I guess I wanted to ask about the sustainability. Obviously, this was a very nice SG&A. Maybe if you can bucket out what was driving that and kind of the sustainability going forward.

謝謝你的粒度。我很感激。我想我想問一下可持續性。顯然，這是一個非常好的 SG&A。也許如果你能找出推動這一趨勢的因素以及未來的可持續性。

Sure. So we talked now for over a year about a commitment and a drive to make Toll Brothers more efficient. And we're not done. But our headcount is down 11% and our business is growing. And there's also lower inside and outside commissions being paid on the sales side, but it is primarily overhead, and we will continue to look for opportunities to do more with less. I'm super proud of the steps we've taken. It will continue. And those are the main drivers of it.

當然。因此，我們花了一年多時間討論如何做出承諾並努力提高 Toll Brothers 的效率。我們還沒有完成。但我們的員工人數減少了 11%，而我們的業務卻在增長。銷售方面支付的內部和外部佣金也較低，但這主要是管理費用，我們將繼續尋找機會，以更少的錢做更多的事情。我對我們所採取的步驟感到非常自豪。它將繼續。這些是其主要驅動力。

The next question comes from Stephen Kim with Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Stephen Kim。

Yes. Obviously, great results. Thanks for all your comments so far. I do think it might be worth sort of thinking about what might happen if you were to see a slowdown in demand, I appreciate that in August, you -- what you shared with us certainly suggests you haven't seen that much of a negative impact from higher rates. But I think it's also fair to say we don't really know what's going to happen with rates in the next few months. And so hypothetically, if you did see buyer demand slow, do you look back upon the strategy that you pursued last year where you let orders slow significantly rather than get aggressive with incentives. Do you look back on that and say this is -- that -- we were vindicated that, that was the right thing to do. And if demand slows in the months ahead, you're going to do -- we should expect you to do a very similar thing that you did last year with respect to letting your orders slow but holding the line on price.

是的。顯然，效果很好。感謝您到目前為止的所有評論。我確實認為可能值得考慮一下如果您看到需求放緩會發生什麼，我很欣賞您在八月份與我們分享的內容肯定表明您沒有看到那麼多的負面影響較高利率的影響。但我認為，公平地說，我們並不真正知道未來幾個月的利率會發生什麼。因此，假設一下，如果您確實看到買家需求放緩，您是否會回顧去年所採取的策略，即讓訂單大幅放緩，而不是採取積極的激勵措施。你是否會回想起來並說這是——那——我們被證明是正確的。如果未來幾個月需求放緩，我們應該期望你們會做與去年非常相似的事情，即讓訂單放緩但保持價格不變。

Yes. I'm very proud of this management team's very thoughtful decisions around our strategy to not chase the bottom. I think we ramped up our spec strategy at the right time when building costs were beginning to come down, supply chain was easing. And so yes, we are not -- we are a margin-focused builder with an understanding, of course, the capital efficiency, ROE finally in the right way is critically important for long-term success but our houses are big. They're complicated. They have a lot of upgrades and features and they take a while to build, and we're not giving them away. We're not going to chase the bottom.

是的。我對這個管理團隊圍繞我們的戰略做出的非常深思熟慮的決定感到非常自豪，而不是追逐底部。我認為，當建築成本開始下降、供應鏈放鬆時，我們在正確的時間加強了我們的規格策略。所以，是的，我們不是——我們是一家注重利潤的建築商，當然，資本效率、股本回報率最終以正確的方式對於長期成功至關重要，但我們的房子很大。它們很複雜。它們有很多升級和功能，需要一段時間才能構建，但我們不會放棄它們。我們不會追到底。

It doesn't mean we're going to have our head in the sand and not have more incentives in a soft market than we had in a good market. I mean that's part of the conversation we've had around this modest drop in margin next quarter. But yes, I think the strategy has worked, and we will continue with that strategy if your hypothetical was to prove true.

這並不意味著我們將把頭埋在沙子裡，在疲軟的市場中不會比在良好的市場中獲得更多的激勵措施。我的意思是，這是我們圍繞下季度利潤率小幅下降進行的對話的一部分。但是，是的，我認為該策略已經奏效，如果您的假設被證明是正確的，我們將繼續採用該策略。

Excellent. That's very clear. And then taking it a step further, can we talk a little bit more about our capital allocation, again, under this hypothetical scenario, which hopefully doesn't actually manifest. If we do enter a softer demand patch, you've been pretty good with capital allocation in terms of dividends and buybacks and so forth. Would you likely though, shift even more capital to buy backs as opposed to investing in land, particularly since you have a lot more cash actually than you did last year.

出色的。這非常清楚。然後更進一步，我們能否在這種假設的情況下再多談談我們的資本配置，希望這種情況不會真正出現。如果我們確實進入需求疲軟的時期，那麼您在股息和回購等方面的資本配置就相當不錯。不過，你是否可能會轉移更多的資金來回購而不是投資土地，特別是因為你實際上比去年擁有更多的現金。

And more broadly, with emerging long-only interest in the space, do you feel maybe the time is right to pursue a more asset-light strategy that might bring your year supply of owned land down to like 2 years or less as we think about the longer-term positioning of the company strategy?

更廣泛地說，隨著對該領域的長期興趣不斷湧現，您是否認為是時候採取更加輕資產的戰略了，這可能會將您的自有土地的年供應量降至我們所認為的兩年或更短公司戰略的長期定位是什麼？

Yes. Our next debt maturity, as Marty said, is November of 2025, which is fiscal '26. We've been generating more than $1 billion of free cash flow for the last several years, 3 or 4 years. We have dropped our lot count by 15%, still being able with a lot land we control to grow community count last year, this year, next year and beyond.

是的。正如 Marty 所說，我們的下一個債務到期日是 2025 年 11 月，即 26 財年。在過去的幾年、三四年裡，我們創造了超過 10 億美元的自由現金流。我們已經減少了 15% 的地塊數量，但去年、今年、明年及以後仍然能夠利用我們控制的大量土地來增加社區數量。

Our land teams are very good at structuring land deals to be more capital efficient. We're doing joint ventures. We're relying upon land bankers. We're getting purchase money mortgages from land sellers. We're buying improved lots just in time. Can we get it down to 2 years owned, that's hard to do when you control main and main. That's all I'll say.

我們的土地團隊非常擅長構建土地交易以提高資本效率。我們正在做合資企業。我們依賴土地銀行家。我們從土地賣家那裡獲得購買資金抵押貸款。我們及時購買了改良的地塊。我們能否將其擁有時間縮短至 2 年，當您控制主要和主要業務時，這是很難做到的。我就說這麼多。

We're moving in the direction of having less owned land, but I'm not going to agree that 2 years is possible only because our business model, where we buy land is a bit different. Our land is very special. It's very unique and not every deal lines up with somebody there to feed you finished lots at the corner main and main in Greenwich, Connecticut, Princeton, New Jersey, Irvine, California...

我們正在朝著擁有更少土地的方向前進，但我不會同意僅僅因為我們購買土地的商業模式有點不同就可能有兩年的時間。我們的土地很特別。這是非常獨特的，並不是每筆交易都會有人在那里為您提供康涅狄格州格林威治、新澤西州普林斯頓、加利福尼亞州歐文等角落主要和主要的成品地段......

Rather Pennsylvania.

而是賓夕法尼亞州。

Rather Pennsylvania to take it home. But we are moving in that direction, and you will continue to see that effort as we go forward.

寧願賓夕法尼亞州把它帶回家。但我們正在朝這個方向前進，隨著我們的前進，您將繼續看到我們的努力。

The next question comes from Joe Ahlersmeyer with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Joe Ahlersmeyer。

Congrats on the results. I wanted to dig in on that point you made earlier about the higher down payments, lower loan to values. If you could maybe just hit on the psychology of this, whether you feel like your buyers are different in this regard, meaning, again, for those 3 out of 4 that are taking a mortgage, a 20% down payment, maybe a certain monthly payment, but are we sort of infer -- to infer that even with rates at higher levels, there is sort of cash on the buyer's balance sheet that they're using to knowingly pull forward that cash outlay and just reduce their overall debt service?

祝賀結果。我想深入探討您之前提出的關於較高首付、較低貸款價值的觀點。如果你能抓住這個心理，你是否覺得你的買家在這方面有所不同，這意味著，對於四分之三的抵押貸款人來說，首付可能是20%，也許是每月的某個月付款，但我們是否可以推斷，即使利率處於較高水平，買方的資產負債表上仍有某種現金，他們會故意用這些現金來提前支付現金支出，從而減少總體償債？

Joe, for sure. And to put it -- I know I said it, but I'll remind everybody, long term, 20% of our clients were all cash. This quarter was 25%. And there's a good reason for it. I have the money. I'm wealthy, and I don't love a 7.5% rate. So I'll put more of my own money to work and less of the bank's money to work.

喬，當然。總而言之，我知道我說過，但我要提醒大家，從長遠來看，我們 20% 的客戶都是現金。本季度為 25%。這是有充分理由的。我有錢。我很富有，而且我不喜歡 7.5% 的利率。所以我會用更多的自己的錢來工作，而不是用銀行的錢來工作。

Our LTV has gone from 70% is for those that do get a mortgage to 68%. Same reason. I'm going to put a little bit more down. Our buyers are clearly wealthier. They have equity in their homes. Remember, the resale market is very interesting, but good, solid used homes -- Sorry, we like that term as new homebuilders. They sell, and they're selling quickly and they're selling, in many cases, above asking price.

對於那些獲得抵押貸款的人，我們的 LTV 已經從 70% 上升到了 68%。同樣的原因。我要再放下一點。我們的買家顯然更加富有。他們擁有自己的房屋淨值。請記住，轉售市場非常有趣，但是優質、堅固的二手房——抱歉，作為新住宅建築商，我們喜歡這個詞。他們出售，而且出售得很快，而且在許多情況下，他們的出售價格高於要價。

What is sitting on the market is the old tired inventory which actually makes it even better for us because not only is the resale market really tight, but the quality of what's sitting on the resale market is lousy. We hope our buyers have some of the better homes that are moving faster and therefore, they may be getting a bit more equity out of their home than they had thought. So they're wealthier.

市場上的庫存是陳舊的庫存，這實際上對我們來說更好，因為不僅轉售市場非常緊張，而且轉售市場上的產品質量很差。我們希望我們的買家擁有一些更好的房屋，並且搬遷速度更快，因此，他們可能會從房屋中獲得比他們想像的更多的淨值。所以他們更富有。

They're getting a bit more equity out of the existing home and they want to move. I talked about it on the last call, find a house for people besides Marty Connor, our CFO, is not a strict financial decision, it's a family decision. It's emotional. It's moving all of your life. It's getting the kids in the better school. It's moving down as an empty nester. It's buying the second home.

他們從現有房屋中獲得了更多淨值，並且想要搬家。我在上次電話中談到，為我們的首席財務官馬蒂·康納以外的人找房子，不是一個嚴格的財務決定，而是一個家庭決定。這是情緒化的。它會感動你的一生。讓孩子們進入更好的學校。它正在作為一個空巢老人而下降。是要買第二套房子了

And all of that wins, it trumps the straight financial calculation on the back of a napkin and where do they go? They may start on a resale market. They can't find anything. We're really proud of what we do. We're really good at what we do. We have groupies. People want and aspire to get into the Toll Brothers house.

所有這些都是勝利，它勝過餐巾紙背面的直接財務計算，它們去了哪裡？他們可能會進入轉售市場。他們找不到任何東西。我們對我們所做的事情感到非常自豪。我們真的很擅長我們所做的事情。我們有追星族。人們想要並渴望進入托爾兄弟的房子。

We sell 10,000 a year, hope to sell 12,000, then 14,000 then 16,000, but in the scheme of the 1 million-plus houses, new homes that are sold in this country in a year, we are a small fraction of it, and there are plenty of buyers still out there that are in the market even at 7.5%, and we're benefiting from that, and that's going to continue as our brand gets better and better.

我們一年賣10,000套，希望賣12,000套，然後14,000套，然後16,000套，但是在這個國家一年銷售的100萬多套房屋、新房的計劃中，我們只是其中的一小部分，而且即使是7.5%，市場上仍然有很多買家，我們正在從中受益，隨著我們的品牌變得越來越好，這種情況將繼續下去。

Yes, it makes sense, a lot of sense. I'm glad you sort of took it that direction because I think a lot of times, folks are hearing the word tailwind and maybe understanding it, at least on the existing home inventory point to mean future headwind, right? And I'm just curious if you see it this way. It sounds like you don't -- I don't want to put words in your mouth, but maybe if you could just in your answer sort of touch on what you see as the most likely scenario for existing home inventory rising and whether or not you think for toll, this actually would represent sort of a follow-on tailwind because it means more of your prospective buyers are shaken loose from those existing homes?

是的，這是有道理的，很有道理。我很高興你採取了這個方向，因為我想很多時候，人們聽到順風這個詞，也許理解它，至少在現有的房屋庫存點上意味著未來的逆風，對嗎？我只是好奇你是否也這麼看。聽起來你不知道——我不想把話放在你嘴裡，但也許你可以在你的答案中談談你認為現有房屋庫存增加最有可能的情況，以及是否或您不認為對於收費而言，這實際上代表了某種後續的順風，因為這意味著更多的潛在買家將擺脫現有房屋的束縛？

Yes. I'm not suggesting that a 7.5% market is good for the industry. It has proven to be good for the new homebuilders because the wider the spread between mortgage of the existing homeowner and today's new rate, the more lock-in effect is occurring. So the resale market is tighter in a 7.5% rate environment than it in 6.5% because there's more people that are locking in.

是的。我並不是說 7.5% 的市場對整個行業有利。事實證明，這對新房屋建築商有利，因為現有房主的抵押貸款與當今的新利率之間的差距越大，鎖定效應就越大。因此，7.5% 利率環境下的轉售市場比 6.5% 利率環境下更加緊張，因為鎖定的人更多。

But all day long, I will take a 5.25% rate market that frees up more existing homeowners to want to move up into our homes. Of course, I'll take that. And will there be a bit more competition on the resale market because it is freeing up, yes, but there will be many more of those buyers -- of those homeowners that want to move up where overall, we will benefit and have even better results.

但一整天，我都會選擇 5.25% 的利率市場，讓更多現有房主能夠搬進我們的房子。當然，我會接受的。轉售市場上的競爭是否會更加激烈，因為它正在自由化，是的，但是會有更多的買家——那些想要升級的房主，總體而言，我們將受益並獲得更好的結果。

We're just very pleased with how well we're doing, considering how fast the rates have gone up, how they continue to go up and our traffic is good, our web traffic is good, and our sales are good and it's primarily driven by what I said. There are still buyers out there. They have very few options. They therefore find their way to us and they fall in love as we knew they would.

我們對我們的表現感到非常滿意，考慮到費率上升的速度有多快，它們如何繼續上升，我們的流量很好，我們的網絡流量很好，我們的銷售很好，這主要是由按我說的。那裡仍然有買家。他們的選擇很少。因此，他們找到了我們的路，並像我們知道的那樣墜入愛河。

The next question comes from Mike Dahl with RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部的邁克·達爾。

Doug, just a follow-up on kind of the LTV cash buyer dynamic. One of the interesting things about this recent rise in rates is I think at various points over the last year, the conventional 30-year had gone above 7%, but you look at arms or jumbos or FHA VA and they had kind of lived more in the like 6%, 6.5% range.

Doug，只是 LTV 現金買家動態的後續行動。最近利率上升的一個有趣的事情是，我認為在去年的不同時間點，傳統的 30 年期利率已超過 7%，但你看看arms、jumbos 或 FHA VA，他們的生活水平更高在6% 、6.5% 範圍內。

Now all rates have kind of surpassed 7%, the spreads have all compressed. Can you just talk a little about -- have you seen that like as people are putting that little extra money down, are you seeing people shift out of -- out of jumbos into conventionals or any ships and own products? And part two is, given there's not as much hypothetical arb between jumping around products today. Have you started to lean back into your buy downs over the last month as rates have risen?

現在所有的利率都已經超過了7%，利差都已經壓縮了。你能談談——你有沒有看到人們把那點額外的錢存下來，你有沒有看到人們從巨型船轉向傳統船或任何船舶和自己的產品？第二部分是，考慮到今天的產品之間沒有那麼多假設的套利。隨著利率上升，您是否在上個月開始重新買入？

Mike, I'll take a shot at the first half of that in terms of what we have seen buyers do. Often when rates rise, we would see them gravitate to adjustable rates. And we haven't seen that because it hasn't been attractive. The spread between adjustable and fixed just has not been substantial enough to motivate somebody to go in that direction.

邁克，我將根據我們所看到的買家的行為來分析前半部分。通常，當利率上升時，我們會看到他們傾向於調整利率。我們還沒有看到這一點，因為它沒有吸引力。可調節和固定之間的差距還不足以激勵人們朝這個方向發展。

We also just came through a period where jumbos were less expensive than conventionals. And so in 2021, '22, we saw buyers borrow more so that you could get to the lower jumbo rate. Right now, we're seeing the inverse of that. We are seeing them increase their down payments and reduce what they're borrowing so they can stay in conventional to a greater extent.

我們也剛剛經歷了巨型飛機比傳統飛機便宜的時期。因此，在 2021 年、22 年，我們看到買家借入更多資金，以便獲得較低的巨額利率。現在，我們看到的是相反的情況。我們看到他們增加了首付並減少了借款，以便在更大程度上保持傳統。

With respect to buy downs and whether we've accelerated that lately, the answer is no. The buydown program doesn't work for the build-to-order business because you can't buy down a rate that's 12, 14 months out. But it does work well as a lead marketing headline for the spec inventory that can deliver over a 4-month period of time. So we may advertise for spec inventory that will take a 7.5% rate down to 5.5%.

關於減持以及我們最近是否加速了減持，答案是否定的。買斷計劃不適用於按單生產業務，因為您無法購買 12、14 個月後的價格。但它確實可以作為規格庫存的主要營銷標題，可以在 4 個月的時間內交付。因此，我們可能會為規格庫存做廣告，將 7.5% 的費率降至 5.5%。

But the cost of that, and let's just say it's maybe $40,000 or $45,000 on the $1 million home the total sales, it doesn't capture the buyer's attention as much as them deciding or can I use that $45,000 and buy finishes in the house or do something that is long term. And I think the reason for that is they don't look at the 7.5% rate of the 30-year rate they're stuck with.

但是，這樣的成本，假設100萬美元的房屋總銷售額可能是40,000美元或45,000美元，它並沒有像買家決定的那樣吸引買家的注意力，或者我可以用這45,000美元購買房屋內的飾面或做一些長期的事情。我認為原因是他們沒有考慮他們所堅持的 30 年期利率 7.5%。

They look at it as a shorter-term time frame where they're going to refi out of it when the rate comes down. And so why use my incentive to buy a rate down that I'm not going to have for a long period of time. That doesn't mean some don't take advantage of the buy down, but it's not like all of our spec inventory is being sold through the buy-down program, and that's where all the incentive is going. It's a marketing headline. It grabs attention. It starts conversation. Some take it, but more flip the dollar value of the buy down into upgrades or features within the home.

他們將其視為一個較短的時間框架，當利率下降時，他們將重新融資。那麼，為什麼要利用我的激勵來購買我在很長一段時間內不會享受的優惠利率呢？這並不意味著有些人不會利用減持，但並不是我們所有的規格庫存都通過減持計劃出售，而這就是所有激勵措施的所在。這是一個營銷標題。它引起了人們的注意。它開始對話。有些人接受了它，但更多的人將購買的美元價值轉變成房屋內的升級或功能。

Yes, that's interesting. And maybe that's also a point of differentiation for your wealthier buyer.

是的，這很有趣。也許這也是富裕買家的一個差異化點。

The second question is...

第二個問題是...

Right, because it's not a straight affordability issue where they have to have the 4.5% rate to get approved, it's more discretionary as to where do they want to spend the incentive.

是的，因為這不是一個直接的負擔能力問題，他們必須有 4.5% 的利率才能獲得批准，所以他們可以自行決定將激勵資金花在哪裡。

Yes, yes,yes. Okay. Second question, and maybe, Marty, this is just a technicality or a clarification on the earnings guide, $11.50 at the low end. If I bridge your operating metrics and account for the year-to-date charges, I think you'd get to a number that's still maybe $0.30 give or take, north of that. So is that really just hedging for -- you're saying your guys including the three buildings that you anticipate to close is as simple as you're hedging in case those don't close in the fourth quarter? Or is there something else in the core operating metrics where you think there could be some give or take.

對對對。好的。第二個問題，也許，馬蒂，這只是一個技術細節或對盈利指南的澄清，低端為 11.50 美元。如果我將您的運營指標和年初至今的費用考慮在內，我認為您會得到一個可能仍為 0.30 美元的數字。那麼這真的只是對沖嗎——你是說你的人員，包括你預計關閉的三座建築，就像你對沖以防那些在第四季度沒有關閉一樣簡單嗎？或者您認為核心運營指標中是否還有其他方面可能存在一些讓步。

Well, I think we're trying to get to some rounded numbers, $11.50 to $12, is pretty rounded. I think there's some caution in there if something doesn't go according to plan. We don't project any impairments. We don't expect any, but there may be some. And so it's as simple as that, Mike. I don't think -- I think you're reading much more into it than you should.

嗯，我認為我們正在嘗試得到一些四捨五入的數字，11.50 美元到 12 美元，是相當四捨五入的。我認為如果事情沒有按計劃進行，那就需要謹慎對待。我們預計不會出現任何減損。我們不期望有任何，但可能會有一些。就這麼簡單，邁克。我不認為——我認為你讀的內容比你應該讀的多得多。

The next question comes from Ken Zener with Seaport Research.

下一個問題來自 Seaport Research 的 Ken Zener。

I wonder if you could quantify -- you've mentioned base pricing. Could you give us a sense this quarter, last quarter versus a longer-term trend. What's your kind of base price and how much of options traditionally been a percent of your sales? And the reason I'm asking that is, obviously, with this liquidity from your buyers, options historically have a higher margin profile. So I'm trying to sense if you're seeing greater share of options and what the impact is historically on your gross margins? If you could give us some context. Is that my first question.

我想知道你是否可以量化——你提到了基本定價。您能否讓我們了解本季度、上季度與長期趨勢的對比。您的基本價格是多少？傳統上有多少選項占您銷售額的百分比？我問這個問題的原因顯然是，由於買家的流動性，期權歷來具有更高的保證金。因此，我試圖了解您是否看到了更大的選擇份額以及歷史上對您毛利率的影響是什麼？如果您能給我們一些背景信息。這是我的第一個問題嗎？

Sure. Long-term average upgrades, and that includes the lot premium, it's 21%. Q3, it was 27%. And $236,000. That's counterintuitive, right, with rates going up, do you think maybe people are moving towards smaller homes, more affordable homes, not the case. And that goes right to the wealth of our clients and how we do it.

當然。長期平均升級（包括地段溢價）為 21%。第三季度為 27%。還有236,000美元。這是違反直覺的，對吧，隨著房價的上漲，你是否認為人們可能會轉向更小的房子、更便宜的房子，但事實並非如此。這直接關係到我們客戶的財富以及我們的做法。

This is their dream move. And if they can afford it, they're going to reach. And so I'm not telling you that trend is going to continue. I don't know, but those are the numbers. 21% long-term average upgrades, Q3 27%. And yes, the margin coming out of our design studios where we send the client to pick all their beautiful finishes is higher than the company's gross margin.

這是他們夢想的舉動。如果他們能負擔得起，他們就會達到目標。所以我並不是告訴你這種趨勢將會持續下去。我不知道，但這些是數字。長期平均升級 21%，第三季度為 27%。是的，我們設計工作室的利潤高於公司的毛利率，我們讓客戶挑選所有漂亮的飾面。

And the lot premium is 100% gross margin.

批次溢價為100%毛利率。

And the lot premium is...

而地塊溢價是...

Correct. What is the -- Well, I guess, following up on that, what is the split between land and the physical upgrades, if you would? And then the second question I really want to address is you talked about 2,200 presale units last quarter. I don't know if you guys are updating us on inventory units yet. That would be useful. But could you maybe talk about where we are in terms of those presales starts as well as that land upgrade mix, if you could.

正確的。嗯，我想，接下來，土地和物理升級之間的區別是什麼，如果你願意的話？我真正想解決的第二個問題是您談到上季度預售了 2,200 套。我不知道你們是否正在向我們更新庫存單位。那會有用的。但如果可以的話，您能否談談我們在預售開始以及土地升級組合方面的進展。

Greg. So I think we have approximately 2,400 specs under construction compared to the 2,200 you mentioned, and we have around 400 at CO or beyond compared to 350 last quarter ...

格雷格.因此，我認為與您提到的 2,200 個相比，我們正在建設大約 2,400 個規格，並且與上季度的 350 個相比，我們有大約 400 個或更多的 CO 規格......

Comparing to 350 last quarter.

相比之下，上季度為 350。

Last quarter -- in terms of a breakdown of the option premium versus things in the house -- what have we got there? You say in...

上個季度——就期權溢價與房屋內物品的細分而言——我們得到了什麼？你說在...

Yes, Ken. So the base house prices for the quarter was call it, high $870,000. So the lot premium this quarter, again, at 100% gross margin was almost $60,000 and then the option upgrades were around 175,000. Now that will include both the design studio and structural options.

是的，肯。因此，本季度的基本房價為 870,000 美元。因此，本季度毛利率為 100% 時的溢價接近 60,000 美元，而期權升級約為 175,000 美元。現在，這將包括設計工作室和結構選項。

The next question comes from Alex Barron with Housing Research Center.

下一個問題來自住房研究中心的亞歷克斯·巴倫。

Yes. I was hoping we could focus a little bit on your ASP trends, especially in orders. I'm guessing, July quarter a year ago was a bit distorted maybe by cancellations? Maybe not. Maybe you can clarify that. But clearly, the trend has gone from the $1.1 million towards $960,000. I'm just trying to understand that better. Is that due to more specs that are lower priced? Are you guys building smaller homes? Is it a more intentional thing that's going to continue? Or do you feel like the prices are here to stay at that level of the orders this quarter. Just some better understanding would be helpful.

是的。我希望我們能稍微關註一下你們的平均售價趨勢，尤其是訂單方面。我猜，一年前的七月季度可能因取消而有點扭曲？也許不會。也許你可以澄清一下。但顯然，這一趨勢已從 110 萬美元上升到 96 萬美元。我只是想更好地理解這一點。這是因為規格更多但價格更低嗎？你們正在建造較小的房屋嗎？這是一件更有意為之的事情嗎？或者您是否認為價格將保持在本季度訂單的水平。只要有一些更好的理解就會有所幫助。

It's really a function of mix, Alex. I think we talked about the success we've had in the Mountain region and in the South where our prices are generally lower than they are in California or in the North. And so as the business has shifted to those geographies. And as we've increased the affordable luxury line as a percentage of total, the average price mathematically comes down. It is not a function of building house type A, this year at 4,000 square feet.

這確實是混合的功能，亞歷克斯。我想我們談論了我們在山區和南部取得的成功，那裡的價格通常低於加利福尼亞州或北部。因此，隨著業務轉移到這些地區。隨著我們增加了經濟實惠的奢侈品系列在總價格中所佔的比例，平均價格從數學上來說會下降。這不是建造A型房屋的功能，今年面積為4,000平方英尺。

And last year, it was 4,200 square feet. It's really just a function of the mix shift from a geography perspective as well as a market segment perspective.

去年，這個數字是 4,200 平方英尺。這實際上只是從地理角度和細分市場角度來看的混合轉變的函數。

Okay. So all else being equal, you don't necessarily see these trends taking the price further down necessarily or possibly yes.

好的。因此，在其他條件相同的情況下，您不一定會看到這些趨勢必然或可能會導致價格進一步下跌。

I think they could modestly go lower. But again, it can be very lumpy quarter-to-quarter based on what is delivering. We are now north of 40% affordable luxury. And I think we've said we're kind of -- we're comfortable with affordable luxury getting as high as half of our business. And we also have to be careful how we define affordable luxury now because it is -- it's gone up fairly dramatically in price through the COVID years and it's a very gray area.

我認為他們可以適度降低。但同樣，根據所交付的內容，每個季度的情況可能會非常不穩定。我們現在已經超出了 40% 的負擔得起的奢侈品。我想我們已經說過，我們對平價奢侈品佔據我們業務的一半感到滿意。我們現在還必須小心如何定義可負擔的奢侈品，因為它的價格在新冠疫情期間大幅上漲，這是一個非常灰色的區域。

We don't market it to the public as affordable luxury. It's just an internal term, to help us with how we prepare for marketing, how fancy we decorate the model homes and build the entrance features and also, I think it helps the Street in understanding this move we made in price. But we're close to where I think we want to be long term in terms of the mix between the affordable luxury, the true luxury the empty nester move down, et cetera. So there could be some modest drop in price, but I think you've seen most of it already.

我們不會將其作為負擔得起的奢侈品向公眾推銷。這只是一個內部術語，幫助我們如何準備營銷，如何裝飾樣板房和建造入口設施，而且，我認為它有助於華爾街理解我們在價格方面的舉措。但我認為我們已經接近長期目標，將經濟實惠的奢侈品、空巢老人真正的奢侈品等結合起來。因此，價格可能會略有下降，但我認為您已經看到了大部分。

The next question comes from John Lovallo with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的約翰·洛瓦洛。

I guess the first one is, that seasonality has certainly been a little bit tricky over the past few quarters, and you guys did better-than-normal seasonality in the most recent quarter. Just curious how you're thinking about absorption as we move into the fourth quarter, given what you're seeing out there in the market today.

我想第一個是，過去幾個季度的季節性確實有點棘手，而你們在最近一個季度的季節性表現比正常情況要好。只是好奇，鑑於您今天在市場上看到的情況，當我們進入第四季度時，您如何考慮吸收。

Yes. It feels right now, John, like it's trending very similar to Q3. And I think our comments around the 3 weeks of August helped explain that. We're running at a pace right now of about 24 homes sold per year per community. Last year was 25 homes sold per year per community. So it's relatively flat, and that's what we're projecting.

是的。約翰，現在感覺它的趨勢與第三季度非常相似。我認為我們在 8 月三週左右的評論有助於解釋這一點。我們目前的運行速度是每個社區每年售出約 24 套房屋。去年，每個社區每年售出 25 套房屋。所以它相對平坦，這就是我們的預測。

The 2010 to 2019 time frame, again, pre-COVID, we tracked at about 22 sales per community per year. So we're -- modestly call it, 10% or so above that. But that's what we anticipate for the fourth quarter.

在 2010 年至 2019 年的時間範圍內，同樣是在新冠疫情之前，我們追踪到每個社區每年的銷售額約為 22 筆。所以我們謙虛地稱之為，比這個數字高 10% 左右。但這就是我們對第四季度的預期。

Okay. That's helpful. And then you guys mentioned cycle times improving. Just wondering if you could help us kind of quantify where they are today maybe versus last quarter, maybe pre-covid. And then how much of that improvement is getting better on the to-be-built side versus just offering more spec?

好的。這很有幫助。然後你們提到了周期時間的改善。只是想知道您是否可以幫助我們量化他們今天的情況，也許與上個季度相比，也許是在新冠疫情之前。那麼，與僅僅提供更多規格相比，有多少改進是在待建方面變得更好呢？

So, cycle times are coming down slowly. We're picking up a couple of weeks. For the next home sold a range is about 10 to 11 months. I think the exact number, I think, is 315 days is what we project when you average out the entire company. That's obviously down dramatically from the COVID years and it's similar to what we saw pre-COVID. But we are more efficient. There's no question. We changed our operating model in the field and we're enjoying those efficiencies. The spec build as a larger percentage of our business is certainly helping because we can get to how started without the customer making all the selections. We can build the house without the customer visiting every Sunday afternoon and coming back at us with their own little punch list -- and how those are less complicated because we're not loading them up as much as some of our clients do when they run through the design studio. So that is certainly helping. We have less SKUs. We have optimized all of our plans. We have less homes that we offer, and all of that is contributing.

因此，週期時間正在緩慢縮短。我們要花幾個星期的時間。下一套出售的房屋的期限約為 10 至 11 個月。我認為確切的數字是 315 天，這是我們對整個公司進行平均後得出的數字。這顯然比新冠疫情期間大幅下降，並且與我們在新冠疫情之前看到的情況類似。但我們效率更高。毫無疑問。我們改變了該領域的運營模式，並且正在享受這些效率。規範構建在我們業務中所佔的比例更大肯定會有所幫助，因為我們可以在無需客戶做出所有選擇的情況下了解如何開始。我們可以建造房子，而無需客戶每週日下午來訪，並帶著他們自己的小清單回來找我們——以及這些如何變得不那麼複雜，因為我們沒有像我們的一些客戶在運行時那樣加載它們通過設計工作室。所以這肯定有幫助。我們的 SKU 較少。我們已經優化了所有計劃。我們提供的住房越來越少，但所有這些都在做出貢獻。

And I do feel like it's just the beginning, particularly with almost half our business being affordable luxury, which means smaller, simpler homes and this operations focus on becoming a better production builder there's still room to go. But I am encouraged that we're down a few weeks, and it's trending in an even better direction.

我確實覺得這只是一個開始，特別是我們幾乎一半的業務都是負擔得起的奢侈品，這意味著更小、更簡單的房屋，而且該業務專注於成為更好的生產建築商，還有很大的發展空間。但令我感到鼓舞的是，我們已經下降了幾週，而且正在朝著更好的方向發展。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to management for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉交管理層發表閉幕詞。

Thank you, Betsy. Thank you, everyone. We appreciate all your great questions and all of your interest. We're always here. As you know, to answer any additional questions off-line. I hope everyone had a wonderful summer although I believe it's over. And we'll see you through the fall and back on a call in December. So thanks again. Take care.

謝謝你，貝特西。謝謝大家。我們感謝您提出的所有重要問題和您的興趣。我們一直都在這裡。如您所知，離線回答任何其他問題。我希望每個人都度過了一個美好的夏天，儘管我相信它已經結束了。我們將在整個秋天與您見面，並在 12 月的電話會議上與您見面。所以再次感謝。小心。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。