托爾兄弟 (TOL) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Toll Brothers First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded. I'd now like to turn the conference over to Douglas Yearley, CEO. Please go ahead.

早上好，歡迎來到 Toll Brothers 第一季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。我現在想將會議轉交給首席執行官道格拉斯·耶利 (Douglas Yearley)。請繼續。

Thank you, Keith. Good morning. Welcome, and thank you all for joining us. Before I begin, I ask you to read our statement on forward-looking information in our earnings release of last night and on our website. I caution you that many statements on this call are forward-looking based on assumptions about the economy, world events, housing and financial markets, interest rates, the availability of labor and materials, inflation and many other factors beyond our control that could significantly affect future results. With me today are Marty Connor, Chief Financial Officer; Rob Parahus, President and Chief Operating Officer; Fred Cooper, Senior VP of Finance and Investor Relations; Wendy Marlett, Chief Marketing Officer; and Gregg Ziegler, Senior VP and Treasurer.

謝謝你，基思。早上好。歡迎，並感謝大家加入我們。在我開始之前，我請您閱讀我們在昨晚發布的財報和我們網站上關於前瞻性信息的聲明。我提醒您，本次電話會議的許多陳述都是前瞻性的，基於對經濟、世界大事、住房和金融市場、利率、勞動力和材料的可用性、通貨膨脹以及我們無法控制的許多其他因素的假設，這些因素可能會顯著影響未來的結果。今天和我在一起的是首席財務官 Marty Connor； Rob Parahus，總裁兼首席運營官； Fred Cooper，財務和投資者關係高級副總裁；首席營銷官 Wendy Marlett；高級副總裁兼財務主管 Gregg Ziegler。

I'm very pleased with the strong first quarter results. We exceeded the midpoint of our guidance on all key metrics, and we have seen a meaningful uptick in demand that started in January and has continued through this past weekend. In our first quarter, we delivered 1,826 homes and generated homebuilding revenue of $1.75 billion, up 3.7% in dollars compared to the first quarter of fiscal 2022. Our adjusted gross margin was 27.5% or 50 basis points better than guidance and 190 basis points better than last year's first quarter. SG&A expense at 12.1% of homebuilding revenues was significantly better than both last year's first quarter and our guidance as we are benefiting from cost savings initiatives that we've implemented over the past year.

我對強勁的第一季度業績感到非常滿意。我們在所有關鍵指標上都超過了我們指導的中點，我們看到需求從 1 月份開始顯著上升，並一直持續到上週末。在第一季度，我們交付了 1,826 套房屋並產生了 17.5 億美元的房屋建築收入，與 2022 財年第一季度相比增長了 3.7%。我們調整後的毛利率為 27.5%，比指導高出 50 個基點，高出 190 個基點比去年第一季度。 SG&A 費用佔房屋建築收入的 12.1%，明顯好於去年第一季度和我們的指導，因為我們受益於過去一年實施的成本節約計劃。

Moving forward, we will continue to execute on additional cost-saving plans to further reduce SG&A expense. Pretax income was $253.8 million, and earnings per share was $1.70 diluted, up 26% and 37%, respectively, compared to last year's first quarter. At first quarter end, our backlog stood at $8.6 billion and 7,733 homes. Although we've seen orders decline 50% to 60% on a unit basis over the past 3 quarters. Backlog is down only 21% in dollars compared to 1 year ago. As a result, we continue to expect solid results this year, and we are reaffirming our full fiscal year 2023 guidance of an adjusted gross margin of 27% and $8 to $9 of diluted earnings per share.

展望未來，我們將繼續執行額外的成本節約計劃，以進一步減少 SG&A 費用。稅前收入為 2.538 億美元，攤薄後每股收益為 1.70 美元，與去年第一季度相比分別增長 26% 和 37%。第一季度末，我們的積壓訂單為 86 億美元和 7,733 套房屋。儘管我們看到過去 3 個季度的單位訂單量下降了 50% 到 60%。與一年前相比，以美元計算的積壓訂單僅下降了 21%。因此，我們繼續期望今年取得穩健的業績，並且我們重申 2023 財年調整後毛利率為 27% 和每股攤薄收益 8 至 9 美元的指導方針。

Turning to the sales environment. We are encouraged by what we have seen across our footprint over the past 1.5 months. Beginning in the first week of January, demand has picked up beyond the normal seasonality that we typically see at the start of the spring selling season and has continued into February. We've seen demand improve in most markets across the country, including Florida, Atlanta, South Carolina, Charlotte, D.C. Metro, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Texas, Colorado and Southern California. Over the past few weeks, we have also seen signs that demand is improving in markets that struggled the most in the second half of 2022, such as Boise, Phoenix, Reno, Las Vegas and Austin.

轉向銷售環境。我們對過去 1.5 個月的足跡所見所聞感到鼓舞。從 1 月的第一周開始，需求的回升超出了我們通常在春季銷售旺季開始時看到的正常季節性，並一直持續到 2 月。我們已經看到全國大部分市場的需求有所改善，包括佛羅里達州、亞特蘭大、南卡羅來納州、夏洛特、華盛頓特區地鐵、賓夕法尼亞州、新澤西州、德克薩斯州、科羅拉多州和南加州。在過去的幾周里，我們還看到有跡象表明，在博伊西、鳳凰城、里諾、拉斯維加斯和奧斯汀等 2022 年下半年陷入困境的市場中，需求正在改善。

We attribute the increase in demand to improve buyer sentiment as inflation appears to be receding and the overall economic outlook seems to be more stable than it was a few months ago. Over the past decade, the housing market has been driven by 75 million millennials entering their prime homebuying years. Baby boomers who have been buying homes as they retire and adopt new lifestyles and migration trends that have favored the sunshine and Mountain states. At the same time, the U.S. has chronically underproduced new homes. Study after study has shown that home starts have not kept up with household formations for many years. And as a result, they now exists a deficit of anywhere between 3 million and 6 million homes in this country. This supply of surge was obvious during the pandemic when buyer urgency surged, demand spiked and prices rapidly increased. It was less obvious in the second half of 2022 when the impact of the sharp and rapid increase in mortgage rates caused many prospective buyers to put their searches on pause.

我們將需求增加歸因於改善買家情緒，因為通貨膨脹似乎正在消退，整體經濟前景似乎比幾個月前更穩定。在過去十年中，7500 萬千禧一代進入購房黃金時期，推動了房地產市場。嬰兒潮一代在退休後一直在買房，並採用新的生活方式和移民趨勢，這些趨勢有利於陽光明媚的州和山區州。與此同時，美國的新房長期生產不足。一項又一項的研究表明，多年來，房屋開工率跟不上家庭結構。結果，他們現在在這個國家存在著 300 萬到 600 萬戶家庭的短缺。這種供應激增在大流行期間很明顯，當時買家的緊迫性激增，需求激增，價格迅速上漲。 2022 年下半年情況不太明顯，當時抵押貸款利率急劇上升的影響導致許多潛在買家暫停搜索。

Now, however, with the traditional spring selling season upon us and consumer confidence improving, buyers are coming off the sidelines. The most telling sign that these fundamentals are real and meaningful is the fact that rates didn't have to go back to 3.5% or even 5.5% for buyers to come back out. In fact, this past week, we had the most deposits we have seen in a month even though rates had moved back up over 6.5%. The improvement in demand is playing well into the strategy we outlined on our December call. In the second half of fiscal '22, with demand inelastic in many markets, that is buyers were not all that moved by price concessions. And with extended delivery times and elevated building costs, we chose not to chase the market down. Instead, we focused on delivering our large high-margin backlog while taking a more patient and balanced approach to new sales and waiting for what we believed would be a better spring selling season.

然而，現在隨著傳統春季銷售旺季的到來和消費者信心的改善，買家開始觀望。這些基本面是真實且有意義的最明顯跡像是利率不必回到 3.5% 甚至 5.5% 買家就會回來。事實上，在過去一周，我們的存款是一個月來最多的，儘管利率已經回升超過 6.5%。需求的改善很好地體現了我們在 12 月的電話會議上概述的戰略。在 22 財年下半年，由於許多市場的需求缺乏彈性，買家並沒有完全被價格優惠所打動。隨著交貨時間的延長和建築成本的增加，我們選擇不追逐市場。相反，我們專注於交付大量高利潤積壓訂單，同時對新銷售採取更加耐心和平衡的方法，並等待我們認為會更好的春季銷售季節。

We are now replenishing our supply of spec homes and increasing community count into the spring selling season, taking advantage of improving supply chains and cycle times and building costs that are stabilizing, all while demand appears to be rebounding. As we execute on this strategy, we continue to make appropriate adjustments to product, price and incentives at each of our communities based on a detailed assessment of local market dynamics, including elasticity of demand, the size of each community's backlog and the depth and quality of our landholdings in the market.

我們現在正在補充規格房的供應並增加社區數量，以進入春季銷售旺季，利用改善供應鍊和週期時間以及正在穩定的建築成本，同時需求似乎正在反彈。在執行這一戰略時，我們將根據對當地市場動態的詳細評估，包括需求彈性、每個社區積壓訂單的規模以及深度和質量，繼續對我們每個社區的產品、價格和激勵措施進行適當調整我們在市場上的土地所有權。

In our first quarter, about 2/3 of the $117,000 sequential decline in the average sales price of new contracts was attributable to mix. The remaining 1/3 was due to increased incentives leading to a first quarter average incentive of about 8%. Today's incentive on the next home sold is about 6.5%. Historically, our average incentive has been approximately 3% over the past 15 years. Based on the recent strength in the market, we expect to continue to pull back on incentives in select communities.

在我們的第一季度，新合同平均銷售價格連續下降 117,000 美元，其中約 2/3 歸因於混合。剩餘的 1/3 是由於激勵措施增加，導致第一季度平均激勵措施約為 8%。今天對下一個售出房屋的激勵約為 6.5%。從歷史上看，過去 15 年我們的平均激勵大約為 3%。基於近期市場的強勁勢頭，我們預計將繼續減少特定社區的激勵措施。

With the resale market tight and buyers eager to lock their mortgages at contract and move more quickly into their new homes, demand for spec homes has been very strong. For the past several quarters, approximately 1/2 of our orders were for specs which we have sold at various stages of construction. Please remember that we define a spec as any unsold home with at least a foundation in the ground. Considering current market conditions, we are strategically starting more spec homes in select markets, but most will be sold early enough in the construction cycle so the buyer will still have the opportunity to personalize their finishes, which is very important to our luxury buyers.

由於轉售市場吃緊，買家急於按合同鎖定抵押貸款並更快搬進新房，因此對規格房的需求非常強勁。在過去的幾個季度中，我們大約 1/2 的訂單是針對我們在不同施工階段售出的規格。請記住，我們將規格定義為至少有地基的任何未售出房屋。考慮到當前的市場狀況，我們戰略性地在特定市場啟動更多規格住宅，但大多數將在建設週期的早期售出，因此買家仍然有機會個性化他們的裝修，這對我們的豪宅買家來說非常重要。

We are also pleased that our cancellations have remained low. Cancellations in the first quarter totaled 244, down from the 312 cancellations we recorded in the fourth quarter. As a percentage of backlog cancellations were 3% versus our long-term average of approximately 2.3%. Our low cancellation rates speak to the financial strength of our buyers, the sizable deposits they make and how emotionally invested they become as they personalize their new Toll homes. While we are encouraged that buyers are returning to the market, we recognize that the direction of the overall economy, mortgage rates in the housing market remains unclear.

我們也很高興我們的取消率仍然很低。第一季度取消總計 244 次，低於我們在第四季度記錄的 312 次取消。積壓取消的百分比為 3%，而我們的長期平均值約為 2.3%。我們的低取消率說明了買家的財務實力、他們投入的巨額存款以及他們在個性化他們的新 Toll 住宅時投入的情感。雖然我們對買家重返市場感到鼓舞，但我們認識到整體經濟的方向、房地產市場的抵押貸款利率仍不明朗。

In light of this uncertainty, we plan to remain prudent as we invest in the growth of our business through disciplined and capital-efficient land buying. We have sufficient land in our existing portfolio to support community count growth in both fiscal '23 and 2024, which allows us to be highly selective as we assess new land opportunities and takedowns under existing options. At the end of our first quarter, we owned or controlled approximately 71,300 lots versus 76,000 lots, at the end of our 2022 fourth quarter and 86,500 lots 1 year ago. 52% of our 2023 first quarter end lots were owned and 48% were controlled through options. Excluding the loss in backlog, 54% of our total lots were controlled through options. We continue to expect to generate substantial cash flow in 2023, and we have ample liquidity under our credit facilities. We intend to use excess cash to further reduce leverage and return capital to our shareholders.

鑑於這種不確定性，我們計劃在通過有紀律和資本高效的土地購買投資於業務增長時保持謹慎。我們現有的投資組合中有足夠的土地來支持 23 財年和 2024 財年的社區數量增長，這使我們能夠在評估現有選項下的新土地機會和拆遷時具有高度的選擇性。在我們的第一季度末，我們擁有或控制了大約 71,300 塊土地，而在我們的 2022 年第四季度末，我們擁有或控制了 76,000 塊土地，一年前為 86,500 塊土地。我們擁有 2023 年第一季度末地塊的 52%，通過期權控制了 48%。排除積壓損失，我們總手數的 54% 是通過期權控制的。我們繼續期望在 2023 年產生大量現金流，並且我們的信貸額度下有充足的流動性。我們打算使用多餘的現金來進一步降低杠桿率並向股東返還資本。

With that, I will turn it over to Marty.

有了這個，我會把它交給馬蒂。

Thanks, Doug. We are pleased with our first quarter results. We grew both our top and bottom lines and operated more efficiently compared to last year. First quarter net income was $191.5 million or $1.70 per share diluted, up 26% and 37%, respectively, compared to $151.9 million and $1.24 per share diluted a year ago. Our net income and earnings per share were both first quarter records. We delivered 1,826 homes and generated homebuilding revenues of $1.75 billion. The average price of homes delivered in the quarter was $958,000. We signed 1,461 net agreements in the quarter, down 50% compared to the first quarter of fiscal year 2022. However, demand improved each month as the quarter progressed. In fact, our January 2023 net agreements exceeded both November and December combined. As Doug mentioned earlier, February continues to show strength through this past weekend. The average price of contracts signed in the quarter was approximately $995,000, this was down approximately 3% year-over-year and 11% on a sequential basis. As Doug mentioned, 2/3 of this sequential decline was simply mix.

謝謝，道格。我們對第一季度的業績感到滿意。與去年相比，我們的收入和利潤均有所增長，運營效率更高。第一季度淨收入為 1.915 億美元或稀釋後每股收益 1.70 美元，分別比一年前的稀釋後每股收益 1.519 億美元和 1.24 美元增長 26% 和 37%。我們的淨收入和每股收益均創下第一季度記錄。我們交付了 1,826 套房屋，並創造了 17.5 億美元的房屋建築收入。本季度交付房屋的平均價格為 958,000 美元。我們在本季度簽署了 1,461 份淨協議，與 2022 財年第一季度相比下降了 50%。但是，隨著本季度的推進，需求每個月都在增加。事實上，我們 2023 年 1 月的淨協議超過了 11 月和 12 月的總和。正如道格之前提到的，二月在過去的這個週末繼續表現強勁。本季度簽訂的合同平均價格約為 995,000 美元，同比下降約 3%，環比下降 11%。正如道格所提到的，這種連續下降的 2/3 只是混合。

Our first quarter adjusted gross margin was 27.5%, up 190 basis points compared to the 25.6% in the first quarter of 2022. Gross margin exceeded our guidance due to good cost control and less-than-expected incentives in our deliveries. Write-offs in our home sales gross margin totaled $8 million in the quarter. Approximately $3 million of this was related to walkaway costs on 4,100 option lots that we decided not to buy and the balance was related to 1 operating community in the state of Washington.

我們第一季度調整後的毛利率為 27.5%，與 2022 年第一季度的 25.6% 相比上升了 190 個基點。由於良好的成本控制和低於預期的交付激勵，毛利率超過了我們的指導。本季度我們房屋銷售毛利率的沖銷總額為 800 萬美元。其中大約 300 萬美元與我們決定不購買的 4,100 個期權地塊的走動成本有關，餘額與華盛頓州的 1 個運營社區有關。

SG&A as a percentage of revenue was 12.1% in the first quarter compared to 13.4% in the same quarter 1 year ago. Note that our SG&A expense in the first quarter always includes accelerated stock compensation expense. It was $12 million this quarter compared to $10 million last year. This is an annual expense that only hits in the first quarter. The year-over-year 130 basis point reduction in SG&A margin reflects leverage from increased revenues as well as benefits from tighter cost controls. Total SG&A expense declined $15 million in the quarter compared to Q1 of 2022. With this improved operating efficiency, we are lowering our projected SG&A expense as a percentage of homebuilding revenue for the full year by 30 basis points. We now expect the full year 2023 SG&A margin of 11%.

第一季度 SG&A 佔收入的百分比為 12.1%，而一年前同期為 13.4%。請注意，我們第一季度的 SG&A 費用始終包括加速股票補償費用。本季度為 1200 萬美元，而去年為 1000 萬美元。這是僅在第一季度發生的年度支出。 SG&A 利潤率同比下降 130 個基點反映了收入增加帶來的影響以及更嚴格的成本控制帶來的好處。與 2022 年第一季度相比，本季度總 SG&A 費用減少了 1500 萬美元。隨著運營效率的提高，我們將預計的 SG&A 費用佔全年房屋建築收入的百分比降低了 30 個基點。我們現在預計 2023 年全年的 SG&A 利潤率為 11%。

Joint venture, land sales and other income was $16.8 million during the first quarter compared to $29.9 million in the first quarter of fiscal year '22. We exceeded our guidance by approximately $7 million even after a $13 million impairment to mark down land we intend to sell to its fair value. We ended the first quarter with $2.6 billion of liquidity, including approximately $790 million of cash and $1.8 billion of availability under our revolving bank credit facility.

第一季度的合資、土地銷售和其他收入為 1680 萬美元，而 22 財年第一季度為 2990 萬美元。即使在減值 1300 萬美元以減記我們打算出售的土地至其公允價值之後，我們仍超出了我們的指導約 700 萬美元。第一季度結束時，我們擁有 26 億美元的流動資金，其中包括約 7.9 億美元的現金和 18 億美元的循環銀行信貸額度。

Last week, we extended our 22 bank $1.905 billion revolving credit facility up 5 years to February of 2028. We also extended the maturity of $487.5 million of our $650 million term loan out to February of 2018. The remaining $162.5 million of our term loan will mature in part in November of '25 and November of '26. Importantly, $400 million of our $650 million term loan has been hedged through November of 2025 with interest rate swaps that are fixed at approximately 1.5%. Our net debt-to-capital ratio was 27.5% at first quarter end, down from 31.9% 1 year ago. We plan to further reduce our debt by repaying $400 million of senior notes when they come due in April of 2023. After we repay these notes, we will have no significant maturities of our long-term debt until fiscal 2026.

上週，我們將 22 家銀行的 19.05 億美元循環信貸額度延長 5 年至 2028 年 2 月。我們還將 6.5 億美元定期貸款中的 4.875 億美元的期限延長至 2018 年 2 月。剩餘的 1.625 億美元定期貸款將25 年 11 月和 26 年 11 月部分成熟。重要的是，截至 2025 年 11 月，我們 6.5 億美元定期貸款中的 4 億美元已通過固定在 1.5% 左右的利率掉期進行了對沖。我們的淨債務資本比率在第一季度末為 27.5%，低於一年前的 31.9%。我們計劃通過償還 2023 年 4 月到期的 4 億美元優先票據來進一步減少債務。在我們償還這些票據後，我們的長期債務在 2026 財年之前不會到期。

Our book value per share at quarter end was $55.98, and I'll remind you that we have almost no intangibles on our balance sheet. In the first quarter of fiscal 2023, we returned $32 million to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. We continue to target $400 million of annual share repurchases, and we continue to pay a quarterly dividend of $0.20 per share. Our community count at quarter end was 328 compared to our guide at 340. The variance from our guide was almost entirely due to selling out 11 communities faster than we anticipated. Our openings generally met our plan.

我們在季度末的每股賬面價值為 55.98 美元，我要提醒您，我們的資產負債表上幾乎沒有無形資產。在 2023 財年第一季度，我們通過股票回購和派息向股東返還了 3200 萬美元。我們繼續以 4 億美元的年度股票回購為目標，並繼續支付每股 0.20 美元的季度股息。我們在季度末的社區數量為 328，而我們的指南為 340。與我們指南的差異幾乎完全是由於 11 個社區的銷售速度比我們預期的要快。我們的空缺通常符合我們的計劃。

Our forward guidance is subject to the usual caveats regarding forward-looking information. That being said, the 7,733 homes in backlog at the first quarter end gives us good visibility for the remainder of the year. We are projecting fiscal 2023 second quarter deliveries of approximately 2,050 to 2,150 homes with an average delivered price of between $980,000 and $1 million. For fiscal year 2023, we are maintaining our guidance and project deliveries of between 8,000 and 9,000 homes with an average price between $965,000 and $985,000.

我們的前瞻性指導受有關前瞻性信息的通常警告的約束。話雖如此，第一季度末積壓的 7,733 套房屋為我們提供了今年剩餘時間的良好可見性。我們預計 2023 財年第二季度將交付約 2,050 至 2,150 套房屋，平均交付價格在 980,000 美元至 100 萬美元之間。對於 2023 財年，我們將維持 8,000 至 9,000 套房屋的指導和項目交付，平均價格在 965,000 美元至 985,000 美元之間。

We expect our adjusted gross margin in the second quarter of fiscal year 2023 and for the full year to be approximately 27%. We expect interest in cost of sales to be approximately 1.5% in the second quarter and for the full year. This would represent a 20-basis-point reduction in interest expense and cost of sales year-over-year as our leverage continues to decline. We project second quarter SG&A as a percentage of home sales revenues to be approximately 11.2%. And as I mentioned, for the full year, we now expect it to be 11.0%. Other income, income from unconsolidated entities and land sales gross profit is expected to be approximately breakeven in the second quarter and $125 million for the full year.

我們預計 2023 財年第二季度和全年的調整後毛利率約為 27%。我們預計第二季度和全年的銷售成本利息約為 1.5%。隨著我們的槓桿率繼續下降，這意味著利息支出和銷售成本同比減少 20 個基點。我們預計第二季度 SG&A 佔房屋銷售收入的百分比約為 11.2%。正如我提到的，對於全年，我們現在預計為 11.0%。其他收入、未合併實體的收入和土地銷售毛利潤預計在第二季度大約實現盈虧平衡，全年將達到 1.25 億美元。

Much of this full year other income is projected from second half sales of our interest in certain stabilized department communities developed by Toll Brothers Apartment Living in joint venture with various partners. While the market for the sale of these stabilized rental properties is unpredictable due to volatility in the capital markets. Our occupancies remain strong and we do currently expect to sell our interest in 4 of these joint ventures by the end of the fiscal year.

這一全年其他收入的大部分預計來自我們在 Toll Brothers Apartment Living 與各種合作夥伴合資開發的某些穩定部門社區中的權益的下半年銷售。由於資本市場的波動，這些穩定出租物業的銷售市場是不可預測的。我們的入住率仍然很高，我們目前確實希望在本財政年度結束前出售我們在其中 4 家合資企業中的權益。

We project the second quarter tax rate at approximately 26% and a full year tax rate at 25.7%. Our weighted average share count is expected to be approximately 120 -- I'm sorry, 112 million shares for the second quarter and 111 million shares for the full 2023 fiscal year. This assumes we repurchased a targeted $100 million of common stock for the second quarter and $400 million for the year.

我們預計第二季度的稅率約為 26%，全年稅率為 25.7%。我們的加權平均股數預計約為 120——對不起，第二季度為 1.12 億股，整個 2023 財年為 1.11 億股。這假設我們第二季度回購了 1 億美元的普通股，全年回購了 4 億美元。

Putting this all together, that works out to be between $8 and $9 per share for the full year which would move our book value above $60 at fiscal year-end 2023. Lastly, as Doug mentioned, we expect to continue generating strong cash flow in 2023 and we remain cautious on new land spend. But based on the land we currently own or control, we continue to expect community count to grow by 10% by the end of fiscal year 2023. This would be off the base of 348 communities that we started the year with. We also control enough land to grow community count in fiscal year 2024.

綜上所述，全年每股收益在 8 美元至 9 美元之間，這將使我們的賬面價值在 2023 財年末超過 60 美元。最後，正如道格所提到的，我們預計將繼續產生強勁的現金流2023 年，我們對新的土地支出保持謹慎。但根據我們目前擁有或控制的土地，我們繼續預計到 2023 財年末社區數量將增長 10%。這將超出我們年初的 348 個社區的基礎。我們還控制了足夠的土地以在 2024 財年增加社區數量。

Now let me turn it back to Doug.

現在讓我把它轉回道格。

Thank you, Marty. Earlier this month, Fortune Magazine named us the #1 World's Most Admired Homebuilding Company. This is the eighth time we have received this honor. I would like to thank all of our Toll Brothers team members for achieving this tremendous recognition. They continue to demonstrate their dedication to our brand and to our customers. And for that, I'm very grateful. I'm so proud of our team and of our company.

謝謝你，馬蒂。本月早些時候，《財富》雜誌將我們評為全球最受讚賞的住宅建築公司第一名。這是我們第八次獲此殊榮。我要感謝所有 Toll Brothers 團隊成員獲得這一巨大認可。他們繼續展示他們對我們品牌和客戶的奉獻精神。為此，我非常感激。我為我們的團隊和我們的公司感到驕傲。

With that, Keith, let's open it up to questions.

基思，讓我們開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, the company is planning to end the call at 9:30 when the market opens. (Operator Instructions) And the first question comes from Stephen Kim with Evercore ISI.

（操作員說明）提醒一下，公司計劃在市場開盤時的 9:30 結束通話。 （操作員說明）第一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Stephen Kim。

Thanks for all the great color here. Obviously, it seems like the tone of your demand has stayed strong. So I'm not going to ask about that, probably others will, but it's very encouraging. I was curious about your customer acquisition costs. This environment we've been living through over the last couple of years has been so unusual. But as you look forward with a market that potentially is normalizing, can you give us a sense for what your customer acquisition costs look like relative to, let's say, what it was like pre-pandemic, I'm thinking things like external broker fees and maybe increased use of the Internet to attract incremental customers to give us a sense for where your SG&A margin is likely to trend over the next couple of years?

感謝這裡所有的好顏色。顯然，您的需求基調似乎一直很強烈。所以我不會問這個問題，可能其他人會問，但這非常令人鼓舞。我很好奇您的客戶獲取成本。我們在過去幾年中所經歷的這種環境非常不尋常。但是當你展望一個可能正在正常化的市場時，你能否讓我們了解一下你的客戶獲取成本相對於大流行前的情況，我在想外部經紀人費用之類的事情也許增加互聯網的使用以吸引更多的客戶，讓我們了解您的 SG&A 利潤率在未來幾年可能出現的趨勢？

Sure. It's a great question, Stephen. The money we spend is 99% digital today. You won't find Toll Brothers on the TV, on the radio or in the Sunday paper and it's become more and more efficient as we've gotten better and better at how we target clients through digital means. We're very proud of our website. We have an internal web team, that's all they do. And we get lots of compliments from our clients on their ability to navigate on our website to try to find the homes that they want. And so I think we will continue to become more and more efficient with the dollar spend when it comes to the digital marketing, which is so important to us.

當然。這是一個很好的問題，斯蒂芬。今天，我們花的錢有 99% 是數字化的。你不會在電視、廣播或週日報紙上找到 Toll Brothers，而且隨著我們越來越擅長通過數字方式瞄準客戶，它變得越來越有效率。我們為我們的網站感到非常自豪。我們有一個內部網絡團隊，這就是他們所做的一切。我們從客戶那裡得到了很多讚美，因為他們能夠在我們的網站上導航以嘗試找到他們想要的房屋。因此，我認為在數字營銷方面，我們將繼續提高美元支出的效率，這對我們來說非常重要。

The biggest expense, of course, is brokers, realtors and we have been comforted and happy to see the realtor engagement involvement with the client is coming down. Back 5, 10 years ago as you know, we were running about 60% of our sales had a realtor and that number today is down around 40%. You could argue a year ago when we were on allocation, and we sort of had clients lined up that you had more clients that were coming in without the realtor because they were just waiting in line for their opportunity. But in today's market, for that number to be down around 40%, we're very encouraged.

當然，最大的支出是經紀人、房地產經紀人，我們很高興看到房地產經紀人與客戶的接觸正在減少。如您所知，回到 10 年前的 5 年，我們大約 60% 的銷售額有一個房地產經紀人，而今天這個數字下降了 40% 左右。你可能會在一年前爭辯說，當我們在分配時，我們有點讓客戶排隊，你有更多的客戶在沒有房地產經紀人的情況下進來，因為他們只是在排隊等待他們的機會。但在今天的市場上，這個數字下降了 40% 左右，我們感到非常鼓舞。

And we're hearing from the client with the resale markets being tight, they are moving faster or exclusively to new homes and they're able to go on our website and learn everything they need to learn where they are confident and comfortable that they can buy on their own without the broker. So the realtor community is important to us. We support that community. We know we need them, but it is a significant expense, and it has come down. We're going to have to wait a few quarters to see if this is a pretty longer-term permanent change to the business. But for the last couple of quarters, it's been down at that 40% range at a time when you wouldn't think it would be down. So for that, we are encouraged, and I think we're going to get more and more efficient on the S of the SG&A.

我們從轉售市場吃緊的客戶那裡得知，他們正在更快地或專門搬到新房，他們能夠訪問我們的網站並學習他們需要的一切，以在他們自信和舒適的地方學習自己買，不用中介。所以房地產經紀人社區對我們很重要。我們支持那個社區。我們知道我們需要它們，但這是一筆不小的開支，而且已經下降了。我們將不得不等待幾個季度，看看這是否是對業務的長期永久性改變。但在過去的幾個季度裡，它一直在 40% 的範圍內下降，而你認為它不會下降。因此，為此，我們感到鼓舞，我認為我們將在 SG&A 的 S 上變得越來越高效。

Got you. That's helpful. I wanted to also ask about the difference you're seeing in your, let's call it, your afflux or affordable luxury customer versus your more traditional luxury customer. As it relates to your comments about incentives, I think that you had talked about incentives actually running at 6.5% today versus 8% in the past quarter, which would imply obviously that things are getting better. I wanted to understand, is that reduction in the incentive due primarily to the fact that the mortgage rate buydown is not costing you as much just because the prevailing market rate has come down? Or is that actually due to actions, proactive actions on your part to not have to -- to not offer significant incentives. And is there a difference between what you're seeing in the incentive trend at the lower -- not low end, but affordable luxury end versus the traditional luxury end.

明白了這很有幫助。我還想問問您在您的（我們稱之為）匯聚或負擔得起的奢侈品客戶與更傳統的奢侈品客戶中看到的差異。關於您對激勵措施的評論，我認為您已經談到今天的激勵措施實際運行率為 6.5%，而上個季度為 8%，這顯然意味著情況正在好轉。我想知道，激勵減少是否主要是因為抵押貸款利率回購併沒有因為現行市場利率下降而讓你付出那麼多的代價？或者這實際上是由於您的行動，您不必主動採取行動 - 不提供重要的激勵措施。您在較低端的激勵趨勢中看到的情況是否存在差異——不是低端，而是負擔得起的奢侈品端與傳統奢侈品端。

Sure. So let's start with sales. The sales cadence between affordable luxury, luxury and what we call empty-nester active adult, which is (inaudible) for the first quarter, it was the same. We were down 50% as we mentioned, and each of those segments was virtually identical. So they're all performing about the same. When it comes to the [incentives] it is slightly higher on the age restricted than it is on the affordable luxury, and it is quite significantly lower on the true luxury, our bread and butter. So let's just pick a number of 8% to go back to the fourth -- to the first quarter. Age-targeted, age-restricted ran about 8.5%, affordable luxury ran about 8% and the luxury ran around 4-ish -- in that range. The luxury client is wealthier. They're less impacted by rate. They -- it's just a different buyer as we've talked about for many, many years. And we think we've had that advantage in a volatile rate market.

當然。因此，讓我們從銷售開始。第一季度（聽不清）的負擔得起的奢侈品、奢侈品和我們所謂的空巢活躍成年人之間的銷售節奏是一樣的。正如我們所提到的，我們下降了 50%，而且每個細分市場幾乎都是相同的。所以他們的表現都差不多。說到 [激勵措施]，年齡限制略高於負擔得起的奢侈品，而真正的奢侈品，即我們的麵包和黃油，則要低得多。因此，讓我們只選擇 8% 的數字回到第四季度——回到第一季度。有年齡限制的、有年齡限制的大約佔 8.5%，負擔得起的奢侈品大約佔 8%，而奢侈品大約佔 4%——在這個範圍內。奢侈品客戶更富有。它們受利率的影響較小。他們 - 這只是我們多年來談論的不同買家。我們認為我們在波動的利率市場中擁有這種優勢。

With respect to what we're doing with incentives, the increase in demand in January and now into February, when we look back on it, it was partially driven by us increasing some incentives, as I mentioned in the prepared comments, as we saw demand become more elastic we could incentivize a little more and see good results. But we think it is more driven by buyer sentiment by the seasonality by people coming back out, they absorbed -- they were able to absorb the higher rate and they wanted to buy. And when they went out to the market, they realized the resale market is so tight. There's no opportunity and they came to us and they started hearing our salespeople talk about significant increase in traffic. The boss saying, I may be raising [prices] or dropping incentives and there became this sense of urgency with the client that, oh, boy, it sure sounds like we're off the bottom. And I don't want to miss this opportunity even though, yes, the rate is higher, it sounds like Toll Brothers maybe raising some prices or drop in some incentives.

關於我們正在採取的激勵措施，1 月份和現在進入 2 月份的需求增長，當我們回顧它時，部分原因是我們增加了一些激勵措施，正如我在準備好的評論中提到的那樣，正如我們所看到的需求變得更有彈性，我們可以多激勵一點，並看到好的結果。但我們認為，這更多是受買家情緒的驅動，人們回來了，他們吸收了季節性——他們能夠吸收更高的利率，他們想購買。當他們進入市場時，他們意識到轉售市場非常緊張。沒有機會，他們來找我們，他們開始聽到我們的銷售人員談論流量的顯著增加。老闆說，我可能會提高 [價格] 或降低激勵措施，這讓客戶產生了一種緊迫感，哦，天哪，聽起來我們確實已經觸底了。我不想錯過這個機會，雖然，是的，利率更高，聽起來 Toll Brothers 可能會提高一些價格或減少一些激勵措施。

And that urgency was created, and it's real. We are dropping incentives. We are raising prices. We're doing it selectively. We're doing it surgically, but it's happening throughout the country, which is one of the reasons why I explained in my prepared comments that the -- today's incentive is less than it was back in December, and we think that's going to continue to go down. So that's the market environment. That's the breakdown between our product mix. I hope I helped you.

這種緊迫感是被創造出來的，而且是真實的。我們正在放棄激勵措施。我們正在提高價格。我們正在有選擇地這樣做。我們正在做外科手術，但它正在全國范圍內發生，這就是為什麼我在準備好的評論中解釋說 - 今天的激勵措施比去年 12 月份要少，我們認為這將繼續下去。這就是市場環境。這就是我們產品組合之間的細分。我希望我幫助了你。

And the next question comes from Michael Rehaut with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Michael Rehaut。

I know there's a lot of discussion. You just kind of alluded to some things around, buyer confidence versus interest rates. And it's obviously very interesting that you're saying the strongest sales weekend has been this past and that obviously, after a pretty tumultuous February so far. I guess the question is, obviously, sometimes it takes a little bit of time for a move in rates to have its impact into the marketplace. The MBA Purchase app Index was down pretty sharply this morning. So just wanted to get your take, as you've seen the volatility in rates over the past 6 months, 6, 7 months, how you view this most recent move, and obviously, it's a pretty encouraging data point over this past weekend. But how do you put into context this most recent move over the past month. And does it kind of create any concerns or anything in terms of traffic over the last few weeks that might make you concerned as you saw a lot of volatility, obviously, over the last 2 or 3 quarters?

我知道有很多討論。你只是提到了周圍的一些事情，買家信心與利率。顯然非常有趣的是，你說最強勁的銷售週末已經過去了，顯然，在經歷了一個非常動蕩的 2 月之後。我想問題是，顯然，有時利率變動需要一點時間才能對市場產生影響。 MBA 購買應用程序指數今早大幅下跌。所以只是想听聽你的看法，因為你已經看到過去 6 個月、6 個月、7 個月的利率波動，你如何看待最近的走勢，顯然，這是過去週末的一個非常令人鼓舞的數據點。但是，您如何將過去一個月的最新舉措納入背景。在過去幾週的流量方面，它是否會引起任何擔憂或任何事情，這可能會讓您擔心，因為您顯然在過去 2 或 3 個季度看到了很大的波動？

Sure. So Mike, if you'd ask me, Doug, if the rate goes from 7.38% to 6.25%, are these buyers are going to be rolling back in? I honestly would have told you, yes, I don't know. I don't think -- I don't know if that's enough. And they did. And then when you asked me, Doug, in a 2-week period of time when the rates go from 6.25% to 6.75% what's that going to do? I tell you the truth. I'd be worried. And it's not that I'm not worried. You're right, it's only 1 week. We've had rates go up now for 2 weeks, and we've had 2 good weeks with this last week being the better of the 2.

當然。所以邁克，如果你問我，道格，如果利率從 7.38% 上升到 6.25%，這些買家會回滾嗎？老實說，我會告訴你，是的，我不知道。我不認為——我不知道這是否足夠。他們做到了。然後當你問我，道格，在兩週的時間內，當利率從 6.25% 上升到 6.75% 時，那會發生什麼？我告訴你真相。我會擔心的。這並不是說我不擔心。你是對的，只有1週。我們的利率已經上漲了 2 週，我們已經度過了 2 週的美好時光，上周是這 2 周中最好的一周。

Now the prior week was a Super Bowl week which isn't -- historically isn't quite as strong as the week following the Super Bowl, which is what we're now in. So it's too early to be running around here with a lot of high 5s. I get that. But it is very encouraging that buyers came back out at 6.25%. It didn't take 5.5%. It didn't take 4.99%. It certainly didn't take the old -- the good old days of a year ago of 3%. That was really encouraging, and it's even more encouraging with a very short time frame data point that as those rates move from that 6.25% to 6.75%, they're still out. Traffic is really good. Web activity is really good. We have continued to create urgency in the sales center because we are dropping incentives. We are raising prices and the buyers are out.

現在前一周是超級碗週，這不是 - 從歷史上看並不像超級碗之後的一周那麼強勁，這就是我們現在所處的狀態。所以現在在這裡跑來跑去還為時過早很多高 5s。我明白了。但令人鼓舞的是，買家以 6.25% 的價格回歸。它沒有佔5.5%。它沒有佔4.99%。它當然沒有採取舊的 - 一年前的 3% 的美好時光。這真的令人鼓舞，而且更令人鼓舞的是，隨著這些利率從 6.25% 上升到 6.75%，他們仍然出局了非常短的時間框架數據點。交通真的很好。網絡活動真的很好。我們繼續在銷售中心製造緊迫感，因為我們正在放棄激勵措施。我們正在提高價格，而買家卻出局了。

But I'm not going to sit here and tell you that we're out of the woods. We understand the volatility to rates. We understand the clouds over the economy. They haven't all cleared yet. It's looking better inflation is coming down. The Fed seems to be doing their job, but their -- the stock markets until the last few weeks have performed well. Our buyers are less impacted by rates for all the reasons we've been talking about back to the top totally used to talk about it 25 years ago. But we're encouraged by the recent activity. That's the best I can tell you, and it's happening in the 6.5-plus rate environment.

但我不會坐在這裡告訴你我們已經走出困境。我們了解利率的波動性。我們了解籠罩在經濟上的烏雲。他們還沒有全部清除。看起來通貨膨脹率正在下降。美聯儲似乎在做他們的工作，但他們的——股市直到最近幾週表現良好。由於我們一直在談論的所有原因，我們的買家受利率的影響較小回到 25 年前完全習慣談論它的頂部。但我們對最近的活動感到鼓舞。這是我能告訴你的最好的情況，而且它發生在 6.5 以上的速率環境中。

Remember that the 10-year -- the spread from the 10-year to the 30 years, 300 points. Historically, it runs in the high 100s. So if that spread does tighten to more historical norms, we're going to be in good shape. And the buyer doesn't have a mentality of I'm locked into this 6.5% rate for 30 years. Refi happened all the time. Our buyers are sophisticated. Most of them have owned homes before. Almost all of them have refied in their life. They are now for $2,000, $3,000, $4,000 and they can get out of a higher rate and jump into a low rate, and there's also that mentality. They want to move on with their lives. They took 8 months off. They're now sensing some urgency, and they're back. And I'm not saying rates aren't important, and they don't impact affordability, they do. But for our business model, it is not the #1 thing.

請記住，10 年——從 10 年到 30 年的利差，300 點。從歷史上看，它運行在高 100s。因此，如果這種利差確實收緊到更多的歷史規範，我們將處於良好狀態。買家並沒有這樣的心態，即我被鎖定在這個 6.5% 的利率 30 年。 Refi一直在發生。我們的買家很老練。他們中的大多數人以前擁有房屋。幾乎所有的人都在他們的生活中重塑了。他們現在的價格是 2,000 美元、3,000 美元、4,000 美元，他們可以擺脫較高的利率並跳入較低的利率，而且還有這種心態。他們想繼續他們的生活。他們休息了 8 個月。他們現在感覺到了一些緊迫感，他們回來了。我並不是說費率不重要，它們不會影響負擔能力，而是會影響。但對於我們的商業模式，這不是第一件事。

Right. No, no, no. I appreciate those comments, Doug. And certainly, a lot of it makes sense, particularly on the refi side. I guess, secondly, just wanted to make sure I heard right from the prior question. The decline in average incentives going from 8% to currently 6.5%. I just missed it that was driven by actual outright incentive reductions or the cost of the mortgage rate buydowns being less expensive and more broadly -- sorry?

正確的。不不不。我很欣賞這些評論，道格。當然，其中很多都是有道理的，尤其是在再融資方面。我想，其次，我只是想確保我從前面的問題中聽到的是正確的。平均激勵從 8% 下降到目前的 6.5%。我只是錯過了它，這是由實際的直接激勵減少或抵押貸款利率回購的成本更低且更廣泛所驅動的——抱歉？

It's incentives. It's not a difference in buydown rate.

是激勵。這不是回購率的差異。

Okay. Well, the heart of the question though was looking at the guidance, you took down SG&A due to some progress on cost saves. The gross margin, though, I'm curious if that was more based on the 8% average incentive and if you continue to have 6.5% or potentially even lower could that ultimately drive some upside in your gross margin guidance for the full year? I think you said that the upside in the first quarter was due to less incentives as well.

好的。好吧，問題的核心是查看指南，由於在節省成本方面取得了一些進展，您取消了 SG&A。不過，毛利率，我很好奇這是否更多地基於 8% 的平均激勵，如果你繼續擁有 6.5% 或可能更低的毛利率，這最終會推動你全年毛利率指導的上行嗎？我想你說過第一季度的上行也是由於激勵措施減少。

Yes, Mike, it's Marty. Thanks for your questions. We expect our gross margin to be relatively consistent through the balance of the year to get to that 27% for the year. There's estimates in that, obviously, with respect to what's in the backlog and what may be sold and settled in the interim. But we feel like we've accounted for the puts and takes that we showed in the guidance we've given you.

是的，邁克，是馬蒂。感謝您的提問。我們預計我們的毛利率在今年餘下時間將保持相對穩定，達到 27%。顯然，其中有關於積壓訂單中的內容以及在此期間可能出售和結算的內容的估計。但我們覺得我們已經考慮了我們在給您的指導中顯示的看跌期權和看跌期權。

And part of that, Mike, there is a budget in place as part of that guidance for that occasional need to work with some of the backlog to get them to close. But we've been very pleased with how low that can rate is and how little we have had to spend with that backlog.

其中一部分，邁克，有一個預算作為該指導的一部分，用於偶爾需要處理一些積壓工作以使其關閉。但我們對能率有多低以及我們在積壓工作上花費的費用有多少感到非常滿意。

And the next question comes from Rafe Jadrosich from Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Rafe Jadrosich。

It's Rafe. Just first, the net debt to cap is already kind of at the low end of your historical range. Can you just talk about the right level you're thinking about going forward? And then with the market improving a little bit here and supply chain improvement, you're going to generate a lot of cash. Just how do you think about land spend versus buybacks going forward?

是雷夫。首先，上限淨債務已經處於歷史範圍的低端。你能談談你正在考慮前進的正確水平嗎？然後隨著這裡的市場稍微改善和供應鏈的改善，你將產生大量現金。您如何看待未來的土地支出與回購？

With respect to the net debt to cap, I think we're comfortable with the gross level in the high 20s, the net level in the mid-20s that's consistent with our discussions with the rating agencies. It may fluctuate a little bit around those numbers based on timing and maturities. With respect to new land and debt paydowns and stock repurchases as it relates to capital allocation, it's a delicate balance. And we are fortunate based on our financial flexibility to do a little bit of all of those. Right now, the deal flow for land has to hit a much higher underwriting threshold and has been a little bit less. There are plenty of deals in our pipeline that meet those thresholds, particularly those that were underwritten a number of years ago, and we continue to execute on those. And we have $400 million of debt that we'll be paying off in the second quarter here, while we continue to buy land and buy stock back.

關於上限的淨債務，我認為我們對 20 多歲的總水平感到滿意，20 多歲的淨水平與我們與評級機構的討論一致。它可能會根據時間和期限圍繞這些數字略有波動。關於與資本配置相關的新土地和債務償還以及股票回購，這是一個微妙的平衡。我們很幸運，基於我們的財務靈活性來做所有這些。目前，土地交易流量必須達到更高的承銷門檻，而且有所減少。我們的管道中有很多交易符合這些門檻，特別是那些幾年前承保的交易，我們將繼續執行這些交易。我們有 4 億美元的債務將在第二季度償還，同時我們將繼續購買土地和回購股票。

And I would point out that over the last 5 quarters, we have walked away from 14,000 option lots. Part of our strategy a few years ago to get more capital efficient and have less risk in our landholdings was to option more land. And as you've seen by the modest walkaway costs that we've had over all those 5 quarters, it's been pretty painless to walk away from those lots because in today's environment, they weren't working. Now that will be replenished at the right price and also with capital-efficient strategies. But I think it shows it's the payoff of being very capital efficient and selective in how we've been buying land that we can walk away from that number of options painlessly.

我要指出的是，在過去的 5 個季度中，我們已經放棄了 14,000 個期權手。幾年前，我們提高資本效率和降低土地持有風險的部分戰略是選擇更多土地。正如您在這 5 個季度中看到的適度的走動成本所看到的那樣，離開這些地段非常輕鬆，因為在今天的環境中，他們沒有工作。現在，將以合適的價格和資本效率策略對其進行補充。但我認為這表明，在我們購買土地的方式上具有非常高的資本效率和選擇性的回報，我們可以毫不費力地擺脫那麼多的選擇。

That's helpful. And then in the gross margin guidance, can you talk about sort of the underlying assumptions or just what you're seeing in terms of construction costs going forward here? For example, can you talk about maybe for how it started today, what's the construction cost that you would anticipate versus a similar house 3 months ago? Like have you started to see that come down? And what type of tailwind can we expect from a margin perspective there?

這很有幫助。然後在毛利率指導中，你能談談一些基本假設，或者你在未來的建築成本方面所看到的嗎？例如，您能否談談它今天是如何開始的，與 3 個月前的類似房屋相比，您預計的建築成本是多少？就像你開始看到它下降了嗎？從利潤率的角度來看，我們可以期待什麼樣的順風？

Sure. The -- so let's start. Supply chain is improving. Cycle time is improving as contractors have more capacity. And costs have stabilized, except for lumber, which is our biggest material cost, has come down significantly. So there's a very nice tailwind with lumber. It's flattened out in the last month or so, 6 weeks maybe. But before that, it was coming down pretty rapidly every week. We do believe, as the year progresses that there will be other costs, both labor and materials that will be coming down. But right now, costs are stabilized, except for lumber, which is a nice tailwind. So stay tuned for the balance of the year. We are actively talking to trades. The normal conversation is the trade that didn't have capacity now comes and says, "Hey, I've got an extra framing crew or 2 that could use some work." That is the opening to get a price concession. And so that is the beginning of the process of seeing costs come down.

當然。 - 讓我們開始吧。供應鏈正在改善。隨著承包商擁有更多產能，週期時間正在縮短。成本已經穩定，除了我們最大的材料成本木材已經大幅下降。所以有一個非常好的木材順風。它在上個月左右趨於平緩，大概 6 週。但在此之前，它每週都在迅速下降。我們確實相信，隨著時間的推移，勞動力和材料等其他成本將會下降。但現在，成本穩定，除了木材，這是一個很好的順風。所以請繼續關註今年的餘額。我們正在積極與交易商交談。正常的談話是沒有能力的行業現在過來說，“嘿，我有一個或兩個額外的取景組可以使用一些工作。”那就是獲得價格優惠的開口。這就是看到成本下降的過程的開始。

And the next question comes from John Lovallo with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的 John Lovallo。

The first one is on just going back to SG&A, down $15 million year-over-year on a similar revenue base. And I know you talked about broker commissions and a few other things, Doug. But what are some of the more structural cost-saving plans that you guys have been successful with?

第一個是回到 SG&A，在類似的收入基礎上同比減少 1500 萬美元。我知道你談到了經紀人佣金和其他一些事情，道格。但是，你們成功實施了哪些更具結構性的成本節約計劃？

Headcount. We're trimming the firm. We're learning how to be more efficient with less people. As we have retirements, we're replacing from within, we're promoting from within, without needing another person. We've gone through a very difficult, thoughtful round of cuts in the last 30 days. We have a plan for -- in order to become even more efficient with headcount and some other initiatives in the firm, but it's primarily headcount.

人數。我們正在裁員公司。我們正在學習如何用更少的人提高效率。當我們退休時，我們正在從內部更換，我們從內部提拔，而不需要另一個人。在過去的 30 天裡，我們經歷了一輪非常艱難、深思熟慮的削減。我們有一個計劃——為了提高員工人數和公司其他一些舉措的效率，但這主要是員工人數。

Got it. Maybe if I could just follow up on that. Is there a risk that you're going to negatively impact growth if things were to pick up here given those headcount reductions?

知道了。也許我可以跟進一下。如果裁員後情況好轉，是否存在對增長產生負面影響的風險？

No.

不。

Okay. Okay. Great. And then second question is just digging into buyer mentality and psych here, which is pretty interesting. I mean, it looks like there was a slight step-up in cash buyers' quarter-over-quarter, at least as a percentage. And you mentioned some fear of missing out, maybe more confidence. But in general, from what you're hearing, do you think folks are just getting more accustomed to higher interest rates?

好的。好的。偉大的。然後第二個問題只是在這裡挖掘買家的心態和心理，這很有趣。我的意思是，看起來現金買家的季度環比略有上升，至少在百分比上是這樣。你提到了一些害怕錯過的恐懼，也許是更有信心。但總的來說，根據你所聽到的，你認為人們只是越來越習慣於更高的利率嗎？

Yes. So cash went from 20% of our buyers to 23% that we expected. It's common sense, right? As rates go up, if you can afford to write the check, you write the check. But I do believe, as we thought, it would take some time for the buyers to adjust to a higher rate environment. And that's exactly what happened. It happened back for the mid-'90s to the mid-2000s, which was good market, we were at 6% plus mortgage rate environment. It's been many years since we've been there, and now we're back there and it took some time. And I think that's the primary -- we have great fundamentals. I know I went through them the migration trends, the demographics with millennials and boomers, the pent-up demand, a tight resale market, 3 million to 6 million too few homes in this country. That big demand supply and balance has been there for a decade. All of that can't be ignored. And as the buyer took a pause and absorbed the higher rate it appears they're coming back out. That's what we've seen over the last 7 weeks.

是的。因此，現金從 20% 的買家增加到我們預期的 23%。這是常識，對吧？隨著利率上升，如果你能負擔得起支票，你就開支票。但我確實相信，正如我們所想的那樣，買家需要一些時間來適應更高的利率環境。而這正是發生的事情。它發生在 90 年代中期到 2000 年代中期，這是一個很好的市場，我們處於 6% 以上的抵押貸款利率環境。我們去過那裡已經很多年了，現在我們回到那裡需要一些時間。我認為這是主要的——我們有很好的基礎。我知道我經歷了移民趨勢、千禧一代和嬰兒潮一代的人口統計數據、被壓抑的需求、緊張的轉售市場、這個國家 300 萬到 600 萬套住房太少。這種巨大的需求供應和平衡已經存在了十年。這一切都不容忽視。當買家停下來接受更高的利率時，他們似乎又回來了。這就是我們在過去 7 週內看到的情況。

And the next question comes from Susan Maklari with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的 Susan Maklari。

My first question is around the commentary that you gave of increasing your spec construction just given that are looking for quick move-in homes. Can you give a bit more detail on the number of specs you have and how you're thinking about adding supply as we go further into the spring?

我的第一個問題是關於您在尋找快速入住房屋的情況下增加規格建設的評論。你能否更詳細地說明你擁有的規格數量以及你如何考慮在我們進入春季時增加供應？

Sure. So Susan, our model right now -- we have about 2,200 specs to answer your question. And those are -- again, we define a spec as foundation or beyond. And we sell a lot of these with enough time left for the client to pick finishes. So they can get kitchen cabinets and countertops and flooring and some of the other fancy things that we show up in our design studios. Our business model right now is to be about 30% to 35% spec which means we will be starting more homes without a buyer.

當然。所以蘇珊，我們現在的模型——我們有大約 2,200 個規格來回答你的問題。那些是 - 同樣，我們將規範定義為基礎或更高版本。我們出售了很多這樣的產品，留給客戶足夠的時間來挑選飾面。所以他們可以獲得廚櫃、檯面、地板以及我們在設計工作室中展示的其他一些花哨的東西。我們現在的商業模式是大約 30% 到 35% 的規格，這意味著我們將在沒有買家的情況下建造更多房屋。

So we're not holding them off the market. But that's the business model at the moment. It's obviously market-dependent, community-dependent based upon local dynamics, but that is what we are targeting. And I'm very comforted when I look at those 2,200 specs and where they are spread between permit and foundation and framing and finishes and complete because we break all that down, it's a really good mix.

所以我們不會阻止他們進入市場。但這就是目前的商業模式。它顯然依賴於市場，依賴於基於當地動態的社區，但這正是我們的目標。當我查看這 2,200 個規格以及它們分佈在許可和地基、框架和飾面之間的位置時，我感到非常欣慰，因為我們將所有這些都分解了，這是一個非常好的組合。

So when the client comes in, they want a house in 60 days, we may very well have it. If they want in 4 months and they want to fix some finishes, we may very well have it. It's really nicely spread. So what we're talking about is the cadence of the starts of the new specs to continue to fill in as we sell what we have. And we have a very detailed plan in place, but it should get to about that 30% around this year.

所以當客戶進來時，他們想要在 60 天內買房子，我們很可能會得到它。如果他們想要在 4 個月內修復一些飾面，我們很可能會得到它。它真的很好傳播。因此，我們正在談論的是新規格開始的節奏，以在我們出售現有產品時繼續填補。我們有一個非常詳細的計劃，但它應該在今年左右達到 30% 左右。

Yes. Susan, I think it's -- and Doug hinted at this but it's a very carefully managed process as to how many specs to start based on what you just sold, what stage of construction other units are in. And so we've developed some pretty sophisticated ways looking at this by market, by community, by stage of construction by pace of sales.

是的。蘇珊，我認為這是——道格暗示過這一點，但這是一個非常謹慎的管理過程，根據你剛剛售出的產品、其他單位所處的建設階段，開始製定多少規格。所以我們開發了一些漂亮的通過市場、社區、建設階段和銷售速度來看待這個問題的複雜方法。

And given the guide and the commentary, is it fair to assume that the margin that you're realizing on those specs is not materially different than what you're getting on the core product?

鑑於指南和評論，是否可以公平地假設您在這些規格上實現的利潤與您在核心產品上獲得的利潤沒有實質性差異？

So through COVID, specs generated a higher margin because people were paying a premium to get into a home quickly. From the summer through the end of the year, specs were getting a lower margin than to-be-built because the market was a lot softer as buyers were on the sideline. And now we are trimming the incentives on specs faster than the to-be-built. And so that's a long answer to say, yes, today, the margin between spec and to-be-built has narrowed. And we think if this demand for specs continues, we're going to get back to having the spec margin be a bit higher, but we're not there yet, but it is beginning to trend in that direction.

因此，通過 COVID，規格產生了更高的利潤，因為人們支付高價以快速進入房屋。從夏季到年底，規格的利潤率低於待建的利潤率，因為市場疲軟得多，因為買家持觀望態度。現在，我們正在以比待建產品更快的速度削減對規格的激勵措施。所以這是一個很長的答案，是的，今天，規格和待建之間的差距已經縮小。我們認為，如果對規格的這種需求持續下去，我們將恢復到規格利潤率更高一點的狀態，但我們還沒有做到這一點，但它開始朝著這個方向發展。

And the next question comes from Truman Patterson of Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Truman Patterson。

First, I'm just hoping to get perhaps a clean number on orders pricing because a couple of quarters ago, I think there was an accounting and mix issue in the order ASP. And I understand that incentives have reduced recently, but sometimes incentives can turn into base price cuts, et cetera. So I'm trying to understand what core pricing might be down from peak between base price cuts and just all in incentives?

首先，我只是希望在訂單定價上獲得一個乾淨的數字，因為幾個季度前，我認為訂單 ASP 中存在會計和混合問題。我知道激勵措施最近有所減少，但有時激勵措施會變成基本降價等。因此，我試圖了解在基本降價和所有激勵措施之間，核心定價可能會從峰值下降多少？

Well, we tried to address that in our comment that 1/3 of the price difference this quarter versus last quarter was associated with incentives. So call that $35,000 to $40,000.

好吧，我們試圖在我們的評論中解決這個問題，即本季度與上一季度的價格差異的 1/3 與激勵措施有關。所以稱之為 35,000 美元到 40,000 美元。

Which is also base price drops. It's all 1 bucket.

這也是基礎價格下降。都是1桶。

Okay. Got you. Okay. So that's kind of an all-in number that you all gave perfect. And then over the past decade or so, you all have had some pretty nice geographical expansion from mid-Atlantic, Northeast, out west and south, et cetera. I'm trying to understand, given the softness in the market, the recession that we've just gone through, are there any areas that you might find some land opportunities or geographical areas that you're targeting to expand to in the coming years?

好的。明白了好的。所以這是一個你們都給出了完美的全押數字。然後在過去十年左右的時間裡，你們都從大西洋中部、東北部、西部和南部等地進行了相當不錯的地理擴張。我試圖了解，鑑於市場疲軟，我們剛剛經歷的經濟衰退，您是否可以在任何領域找到一些土地機會或您打算在未來幾年擴展到的地理區域？

We've expanded quite a bit in the last 3 or 4 years. We went into San Antonio. We went into Tampa. We've gone to Portland, Oregon. We've gone to Salt Lake City. We went to Spokane and [Coeur d'Alene]. And so at the moment, Truman, there are -- we're going to Long Island. We just opened in Long Island. So at the moment, there's no hot new market that we have our eyes on that were far enough along to tell you that we think we're going. We're always looking. I think we're most focused, however, on getting bigger and more diversified in the existing core markets where we're operating really well. That's also going to really help leveraging the SG&A because some of these smaller market startups are pretty inefficient for a number of years before you get the machine going. And so I think over the next couple of years, you'll see less of the secondary tertiary market expansion and more growth in our core markets.

在過去的 3 或 4 年裡，我們已經擴展了很多。我們去了聖安東尼奧。我們去了坦帕。我們去了俄勒岡州的波特蘭。我們去了鹽湖城。我們去了斯波坎和[Coeur d'Alene]。所以現在，杜魯門，我們要去長島。我們剛剛在長島開業。所以目前，我們所關注的熱門新市場還沒有足夠長的時間告訴你我們認為我們要去。我們一直在尋找。然而，我認為我們最關注的是在我們經營得很好的現有核心市場上變得更大、更多元化。這也將真正幫助利用 SG&A，因為在你讓機器運轉之前，這些較小的市場初創公司中的一些在很多年裡效率都非常低。所以我認為在接下來的幾年裡，你會看到二級市場的擴張減少，而我們的核心市場增長更多。

The 1 market you didn't mention is Nashville where we do have expense and we don't have any communities to open yet.

你沒有提到的第一個市場是納什維爾，我們在那裡有支出，而且我們還沒有任何社區可以開放。

And the next question comes from Mike Dahl with RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Mike Dahl。

Just a follow-up on the orders environment, it was helpful in terms of the color on January being greater than November, December combined. So I guess high-level math would be January had to be at least around 750 orders compared to 350, give or take. And November, December, but could you put a finer point on just help walk us through the monthly trends? And then when you talk about the February improvement, if you can give us some sense of quantification on orders, not just deposits.

只是跟進訂單環境，這有助於 1 月的顏色大於 11 月、12 月的總和。所以我猜高階數學會是 1 月份必須至少有 750 個訂單，而不是 350 個，給予或接受。還有 11 月、12 月，但你能否更詳細地說明如何幫助我們了解月度趨勢？然後當你談到 2 月份的改進時，如果你能給我們一些訂單量化的感覺，而不僅僅是存款。

All right. I got it right here. So November was down 72% year-over-year. December was down 55% year-over-year. January was down 31% year-over-year. January sales were the highest pre-January 2020 since January of 2005, February is the same as January.

好的。我在這裡得到它。因此，11 月同比下降 72%。 12 月同比下降 55%。 1 月份同比下降 31%。 1 月銷售額是 2020 年 1 月之前的最高水平，自 2005 年 1 月以來，2 月與 1 月持平。

Okay. That's very helpful. And when you say [same as January] in unit terms or a percent change?

好的。這很有幫助。當你說 [與一月相同] 的單位或百分比變化時？

Units.

單位。

Units.

單位。

Okay. My follow-up question, just on the land side. I mean, you guys obviously tightened up your underwriting quite a bit. You've given some high-level metrics in terms of combined margin and IRR thresholds in the past. How -- where do those stand now? Have you maintained the similar threshold? Have you shifted that threshold at all up or down based on what you're seeing?

好的。我的後續問題，就在陸地方面。我的意思是，你們顯然收緊了承保。過去，您已經根據組合利潤率和 IRR 閾值給出了一些高級指標。怎麼樣 - 現在那些站在哪裡？您是否保持了類似的閾值？您是否根據所看到的情況向上或向下移動了該閾值？

We've kept it the same, which is -- we used to be 55% combined gross margin IRR to buy ground. That went to 60%, it's now 65%. So if you're going to have a 25% gross margin, you're going to need a 40% IRR. If you're going to have a 30% gross margin we'll give you a 35% IRR. It's tight. It's hard to find deals. We have deal flow, it's happening, but we are being very disciplined right now in that very high combined underwriting.

我們一直保持不變，那就是——我們曾經以 55% 的綜合毛利率 IRR 來購買土地。那是 60%，現在是 65%。因此，如果您要獲得 25% 的毛利率，則需要 40% 的內部收益率。如果你要有 30% 的毛利率，我們會給你 35% 的內部收益率。很緊。很難找到交易。我們有交易流，它正在發生，但我們現在在非常高的聯合承銷方面非常有紀律。

And we're using current paces. In other years, we might have had a 12-month pace put in front of us. And we say the 12 months don't matter. We need to see what happened over the last 4 weeks, 8 weeks kind of pace because that should -- that's what you should annualize not the full 12 months.

我們正在使用當前的步伐。在其他年份，擺在我們面前的可能是 12 個月的進度。我們說 12 個月並不重要。我們需要看看過去 4 週發生了什麼，8 週的速度，因為那應該——那是你應該年化的，而不是整個 12 個月。

Right. Now as cycle times come down, as some building costs come down, the team are allowed to plug in current conditions for that, too, but they have to work off of current market conditions when it comes to sales price and sales pace. So we have some frustrated land teams out there, but that's good. They're [houseful in]. And we celebrate deals. We're doing deals and we make sure everybody knows that the treasury is open. It's just tight.

正確的。現在隨著周期時間的縮短，隨著一些建築成本的下降，團隊也可以為此插入當前條件，但在銷售價格和銷售速度方面，他們必鬚根據當前市場條件進行工作。所以我們有一些沮喪的陸地團隊，但這很好。他們[滿屋子]。我們慶祝交易。我們正在做交易，我們確保每個人都知道財政部是開放的。只是很緊。

And this concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to management for any closing comments.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回管理層徵求任何結束意見。

Thank you very much. Thanks, everyone, for your interest and support. We appreciate very much. We're always here to answer any individual questions you may have. And -- what is it 6pm in Philly today, so spring is coming. Thanks so much. Take care.

非常感謝。謝謝大家的關心和支持。我們非常感謝。我們總是在這裡回答您可能遇到的任何個人問題。而且 - 今天在費城下午 6 點是多少，所以春天來了。非常感謝。小心。

Thank you. The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines.

謝謝。會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開線路。