托爾兄弟 (TOL) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Toll Brothers Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.

大家早上好，歡迎來到 Toll Brothers 第二季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意正在記錄此事件。

At this time, I'd like to turn the floor over to Douglas Yearley, CEO. Please go ahead.

現在，我想請首席執行官道格拉斯·耶利 (Douglas Yearley) 發言。請繼續。

Thank you, Jamie. Good morning. Welcome, and thank you all for joining us. Before I begin, I ask you to read our statement on forward-looking information in our earnings release of last night and on our website. I caution you that many statements on this call are forward-looking based on assumptions about the economy, world events, housing and financial markets, interest rates, the availability of labor and materials inflation and many other factors beyond our control that could significantly affect future results.

謝謝你，傑米。早上好。歡迎，並感謝大家加入我們。在我開始之前，我請您閱讀我們在昨晚發布的財報和我們網站上關於前瞻性信息的聲明。我提醒您，本次電話會議的許多陳述都是前瞻性的，基於對經濟、世界大事、住房和金融市場、利率、勞動力和材料通脹的可用性以及我們無法控制的可能對未來產生重大影響的許多其他因素的假設結果。

With me today are Marty Connor, Chief Financial Officer; Rob Parahus, President and Chief Operating Officer; Fred Cooper, Senior VP of Finance and Investor Relations; Wendy Marlett, Chief Marketing Officer; and Gregg Ziegler, Senior VP and Treasurer.

今天和我在一起的是首席財務官 Marty Connor； Rob Parahus，總裁兼首席運營官； Fred Cooper，財務和投資者關係高級副總裁；首席營銷官 Wendy Marlett；高級副總裁兼財務主管 Gregg Ziegler。

We are very pleased with our second quarter results. As mortgage rates have stabilized and buyer confidence has improved, the increase in demand that began in January has continued through our second quarter and into the start of our third quarter. This improvement in demand, combined with our strategy of increasing our supply of spec homes into the spring selling season, and our focus on operational efficiency, has resulted in second quarter performance that well exceeded our guidance.

我們對第二季度的業績感到非常滿意。隨著抵押貸款利率趨於穩定且買家信心有所改善，從 1 月份開始的需求增長一直持續到我們的第二季度和第三季度初。需求的改善，加上我們在春季銷售旺季增加規格房供應的戰略，以及我們對運營效率的關注，導致第二季度的業績遠遠超出了我們的預期。

As a result, we are raising our full year guidance across most metrics. We delivered 2,492 homes in the second quarter at an average price of $1 million, generating home sales revenues of approximately $2.5 billion each a second quarter record. Deliveries exceeded the midpoint of our guidance by nearly 400 units, primarily due to cycle time improvements and an increase in the number of spec homes we settled in the quarter. Adjusted gross margin of 28.3% in the second quarter improved 220 basis points compared to last year's second quarter and was 130 basis points better than guidance.

因此，我們提高了對大多數指標的全年指導。我們在第二季度以 100 萬美元的平均價格交付了 2,492 套房屋，第二季度的房屋銷售收入創下了約 25 億美元的記錄。交付量超過我們指導的中點近 400 個單位，這主要是由於週期時間的改善以及我們在本季度結算的規格房屋數量的增加。第二季度調整後的毛利率為 28.3%，與去年第二季度相比提高了 220 個基點，比指導高出 130 個基點。

Our homebuilding gross margin benefited from cost controls and greater leverage on fixed costs from higher homebuilding revenues. Our SG&A expense in the second quarter was $16 million lower than Q2 of last year. We are benefiting from approximately $50 million of cost reductions that we have taken over the past year, which we expect to be permanent savings, and we continue to target additional opportunities to become even more efficient. As a result of the significant beat on our top line and improved margin performance, we generated second quarter pretax income of $430.6 million and earnings per share of $2.85, up 46% and 54% and respectively, compared to last year's second quarter, both second quarter records.

我們的住宅建築毛利率受益於成本控制以及更高的住宅建築收入對固定成本的更大槓桿作用。我們第二季度的 SG&A 費用比去年第二季度減少了 1600 萬美元。我們受益於過去一年中大約 5000 萬美元的成本削減，我們預計這將是永久性的節省，我們將繼續瞄準更多機會以提高效率。由於我們的收入大幅增長且利潤率表現有所改善，我們第二季度的稅前收入為 4.306 億美元，每股收益為 2.85 美元，與去年第二季度相比分別增長 46% 和 54%，均位列第二季度記錄。

At second quarter end, our backlog stood at $8.4 billion and 7,574 homes. Our cancellation rate as a percentage of backlog was an industry low 3.9% in the second quarter.

在第二季度末，我們的積壓訂單為 84 億美元和 7,574 套房屋。第二季度，我們的取消率佔積壓訂單的百分比為 3.9%，處於行業最低水平。

As a reminder, our buyers are financially invested in their new homes as they make sizable nonrefundable down payments that average approximately $85,000. They also become emotionally invested as they personalize their homes by selecting their home sites, adding structural options to match their lifestyles and selecting finishes that reflect their tastes. In short, they stick. And the profile of our typical buyer is well suited for the current market.

提醒一下，我們的買家對他們的新房進行了財務投資，因為他們支付了大量不可退還的首付款，平均約為 85,000 美元。當他們通過選擇自己的住所、添加結構選項以匹配他們的生活方式以及選擇反映他們品味的飾面來個性化他們的家時，他們也會投入情感。簡而言之，他們堅持下去。我們典型買家的形象非常適合當前市場。

Our buyers are more affluent and tend to have significant equity built up in their existing homes, which better insulates them from affordability concerns and makes it easier for them to move.

我們的買家更富有，並且往往在他們現有的房屋中積累了大量資產，這可以更好地使他們免受負擔能力問題的影響，並使他們更容易搬家。

In the second quarter, 23% of our buyers paid all cash and those who took a mortgage averaged approximately 70% loan to value. In the second quarter, we signed 2,333 net contracts for $2.3 billion, down 19% in units and 26% in dollars compared to our very strong second quarter last year. Although our second quarter contracts were down on a year-over-year basis, demand has improved significantly compared to the previous 3 quarters.

在第二季度，我們的買家中有 23% 支付了所有現金，而那些抵押貸款的買家平均貸款價值約為 70%。第二季度，我們簽署了 2,333 份淨合同，價值 23 億美元，與去年第二季度非常強勁的表現相比，單位數量下降了 19%，美元下降了 26%。儘管我們第二季度的合同同比下降，但與前三個季度相比，需求有了顯著改善。

As I mentioned on our last call, we saw demand start to improve in January. I'm pleased to report that these more favorable conditions have continued through our second quarter and into the start of our third quarter. Physical traffic, web activity and deposits in the first 3 weeks of May have all been very encouraging. Overall, buyers appear to be adjusting to mortgage rates that have stabilized in the 6% to 7% range. The shock of last year's abrupt spike in rates appears to be wearing off and buyers are moving on with their lives.

正如我在上次電話會議中提到的那樣，我們看到需求在 1 月份開始好轉。我很高興地報告說，這些更有利的條件一直持續到我們的第二季度和第三季度的開始。 5 月前 3 週的實體流量、網絡活動和存款都非常令人鼓舞。總體而言，買家似乎正在適應穩定在 6% 至 7% 範圍內的抵押貸款利率。去年利率突然飆升的衝擊似乎正在消退，買家正在繼續他們的生活。

As I pointed out in the past, there is a substantial shortage of homes for sale in the U.S. with housing starts failing to keep up with population growth, for at least the past 15 years. Now with 90% of outstanding mortgages under 5%, the market is seeing the further impact of a low interest rate lock-in effect, existing home buyers -- excuse me, existing homeowners are reluctant to give up their low rate mortgages, which has led to historically tight resale inventories.

正如我過去指出的那樣，至少在過去 15 年裡，美國的待售房屋嚴重短缺，新屋開工跟不上人口增長。現在 90% 的未償還抵押貸款低於 5%，市場正在看到低利率鎖定效應的進一步影響，現有購房者——對不起，現有房主不願意放棄他們的低利率抵押貸款，這已經導致歷史上轉售庫存緊張。

In fact, according to recent reports, approximately 35% of homes currently for sale are new construction compared to the historical norm of between 10% and 15%. This phenomenon has become a boon for homebuilders and especially the larger, well-capitalized public builders who are more efficient and better positioned to take advantage of opportunities compared to smaller private builders. With such low levels of resale inventory on the market, buyers are gravitating to new homes. As they do, they benefit not just from the opportunity to buy new, but they can also take advantage of incentives like rate buy downs that are generally not available on resale homes.

事實上，根據最近的報導，目前待售房屋中約有 35% 是新建房屋，而歷史標準為 10% 至 15%。這種現像已成為住宅建築商的福音，尤其是規模較大、資本充足的公共建築商，與小型私人建築商相比，它們效率更高、定位更佳，可以利用機會。由於市場上的轉售庫存水平如此之低，買家傾向於購買新房。當他們這樣做時，他們不僅受益於購買新房的機會，而且還可以利用轉售房屋通常無法獲得的折扣購買等激勵措施。

In addition to the underproduction of new homes in this country and the low level of resale inventory, there are many other factors that continue to support the housing market. These include favorable demographics with millions of millennials and baby boomers on the move. Millennials, in particular, are buying their first home later in life when they have higher incomes and accumulated wealth. Migration trends are driving the population south and west, which not only increases demand in these markets, but alleviate some of the affordability pressures as buyers move from high cost to low-cost markets. More flexibility in the workplace also supports this migration and the housing market in general as buyers place a greater emphasis on their homes. These trends have staying power that we believe will continue to support housing demand for years to come.

除了該國新房生產不足和轉售庫存水平低外，還有許多其他因素繼續支撐房地產市場。其中包括有利的人口統計數據，數百萬千禧一代和嬰兒潮一代正在遷移。尤其是千禧一代，他們會在晚些時候擁有更高的收入和積累的財富後購買他們的第一套房子。移民趨勢正在推動人口向南和向西轉移，這不僅增加了這些市場的需求，而且隨著買家從高成本市場轉移到低成本市場，減輕了一些負擔能力壓力。工作場所的更大靈活性也支持這種遷移和整個住房市場，因為買家更加重視他們的房屋。我們相信這些趨勢具有持久力，將在未來幾年繼續支持住房需求。

A key part of our strategy heading into the spring selling season was to focus on increasing our supply of spec homes to support deliveries in the second half of fiscal '23 and throughout 2024. With demand better than expected this spring, this strategy is paying off. Demand for our spec homes in the second quarter remained strong, representing approximately 40% of our orders in the quarter.

我們進入春季銷售旺季的戰略的一個關鍵部分是專注於增加規格房的供應，以支持 23 財年下半年和整個 2024 年的交付。由於今年春季的需求好於預期，這一戰略正在取得成效.第二季度對我們規格房的需求依然強勁，約佔本季度訂單的 40%。

As a reminder, we define a spec home with any unsold home with at least a foundation in the ground. We sell our specs at various stages of construction which still allows many of our buyers the opportunity to personalize their finishes. For those who prefer an even quicker move in, when we do finish our homes, we include designer-appointed features that reflect the luxury Toll brand.

提醒一下，我們將任何未售出的房屋定義為至少有地基的規格房屋。我們在施工的各個階段出售我們的規格，這仍然讓我們的許多買家有機會個性化他們的飾面。對於那些喜歡更快入住的人，當我們完成我們的房子時，我們會加入設計師指定的功能，以反映豪華的 Toll 品牌。

Specs also allow buyers to lock their mortgage rates at or near the time of contract. We believe that in this market, our spec strategy continues to make sense. With such limited resale inventory, specs fill a significant gap in supply. We expect that specs will continue to comprise between 30% and 40% of our sales for the foreseeable future. The more stable environment has allowed us to increase price in more than half of our communities. Factoring in base price increases and incentive reductions, we have increased price by an average of approximately $25,000 per home in the second quarter. We also saw modest improvements in our supply chain and some easing in labor constraints, especially at the front end of the construction process.

規格還允許買家在合同簽訂時或接近合同時鎖定抵押貸款利率。我們相信，在這個市場上，我們的規格策略仍然有意義。由於轉售庫存如此有限，規格填補了巨大的供應缺口。我們預計在可預見的未來，規格將繼續占我們銷售額的 30% 至 40%。更穩定的環境使我們能夠在超過一半的社區中提高價格。考慮到基本價格上漲和激勵措施減少，我們在第二季度平均將每套房屋的價格提高了約 25,000 美元。我們還看到我們的供應鏈有所改善，勞動力限制有所緩解，尤其是在施工流程的前端。

As a result, we saw our cycle times improve by approximately 2 weeks on average across our communities during the second quarter. The improvement in cycle times, combined with a stronger demand environment and our focus on increasing spec production has led us to increase our full year deliveries guidance. We now expect to deliver between 8,900 and 9,500 homes, an increase of approximately 700 homes at the midpoint of our previous guidance. We are also increasing our guidance for our full year average delivered price to between $975,000 and $995,000. This translates to a homebuilding revenue projection of approximately $9.2 billion for the full year. We are also increasing our full year adjusted gross margin guidance from 27% to 27.8%.

因此，在第二季度，我們整個社區的周期時間平均縮短了大約 2 週。週期時間的改善，加上更強勁的需求環境以及我們對增加規格生產的關注，使我們增加了全年交付指導。我們現在預計將交付 8,900 到 9,500 套房屋，比我們之前指導的中點增加了大約 700 套。我們還將全年平均交付價格的指導價提高到 975,000 美元至 995,000 美元之間。這意味著全年的房屋建築收入預測約為 92 億美元。我們還將全年調整後的毛利率指引從 27% 提高到 27.8%。

As I mentioned earlier, we expect to benefit from greater fixed cost leverage on higher revenues. We are also benefiting from being a more efficient builder with a streamlined portfolio of floor plans and option selections. On the land front, we remain committed to our disciplined and capital-efficient land acquisition strategy as well as our focus on returning capital to stakeholders.

正如我之前提到的，我們希望從更高的收入中獲得更大的固定成本槓桿。我們還受益於成為一個更高效的建築商，擁有精簡的平面圖和選項選擇組合。在土地方面，我們仍然致力於我們有紀律和資本效率的土地收購戰略，以及我們對向利益相關者返還資本的關注。

At the end of our fiscal second quarter, we owned or controlled 71,300 lots, of which 49% were controlled and 51% owned. Approximately 7,500 of these lots are already committed to buyers in our backlog. Excluding these, our controlled land represents 55% of lots. This provides us with sufficient land needed for significant growth well into the future. Therefore, we will continue to be very selective on new land deals as we apply our more rigorous underwriting standards.

在我們第二財季末，我們擁有或控制了 71,300 塊土地，其中 49% 為控制，51% 為自有。這些拍品中大約有 7,500 件已經提交給我們積壓的買家。排除這些，我們控制的土地佔地塊的 55%。這為我們提供了未來顯著增長所需的充足土地。因此，隨著我們應用更嚴格的承銷標準，我們將繼續對新的土地交易非常有選擇性。

Our financial position and liquidity remain very strong. In the second quarter, we retired $400 million of senior notes and extended our term loan and revolving credit facilities out 5 years. At quarter end, our net debt to capital ratio was 23.5%. We also purchased $84 million of our common stock at the average price of approximately $58 and in the second quarter and paid $46 million in dividends year-to-date.

我們的財務狀況和流動性仍然非常強勁。第二季度，我們收回了 4 億美元的優先票據，並將我們的定期貸款和循環信貸額度延長了 5 年。季度末，我們的淨債務資本比率為 23.5%。我們還以大約 58 美元的平均價格購買了 8400 萬美元的普通股，並在第二季度支付了 4600 萬美元的股息。

In March, our Board approved a 5% increase in our quarterly dividend. These actions reflect our confidence in the business and our commitment to delivering returns to shareholders.

3 月，我們的董事會批准將季度股息提高 5%。這些行動反映了我們對業務的信心以及我們為股東提供回報的承諾。

With that, I'll turn it over to Marty.

有了這個，我會把它交給馬蒂。

Thanks, Doug. Good morning, everyone. As Doug mentioned, we had a terrific second quarter. We beat our guidance for homebuilding revenues, adjusted gross margin, SG&A, and earnings. Our quarter end backlog of 7,574 homes and $8.4 billion is strong with high embedded gross margins and our cancellations have remained low, and we believe we have the right strategy in place to replenish this backlog and support deliveries in the second half of fiscal year '23 and throughout fiscal year '24.

謝謝，道格。大家，早安。正如道格所提到的，我們有一個很棒的第二季度。我們超出了我們對房屋建築收入、調整後毛利率、SG&A 和收益的指導。我們季度末積壓的 7,574 套房屋和 84 億美元的訂單量很大，嵌入的毛利率很高，我們的取消訂單仍然很低，我們相信我們有正確的策略來補充積壓的訂單並支持 23 財年下半年的交付以及整個 24 財年。

Homebuilding revenue of $2.5 billion on 2,492 delivered homes were both second quarter records, increasing 14% in dollars and 4% in units compared to 1 year ago. We signed 2,333 net contracts in the second quarter for $2.3 billion. The average price of contracts signed in the quarter was approximately $975,000, down about 2.1% compared to the first quarter of fiscal year '23. This decline was due to mix.

2,492 套交付房屋的房屋建築收入為 25 億美元，均創下第二季度的記錄，與一年前相比，以美元計算增長 14%，以單位計算增長 4%。我們在第二季度簽署了 2,333 份淨合同，價值 23 億美元。本季度簽訂的合同平均價格約為 975,000 美元，與 23 財年第一季度相比下降了約 2.1%。這種下降是由於混合。

As Doug mentioned, we actually raised price an average of $25,000 per home in the second quarter. Pretax income was $430.6 million compared to $295.8 million in the second quarter of fiscal 2022. Net income was $320.2 million or $2.85 per share diluted compared to $220.6 million and $1.85 per share diluted 1 year ago. Leading to a book value per share of $58.67 at quarter end.

正如 Doug 所提到的，我們實際上在第二季度平均將每套房屋的價格提高了 25,000 美元。稅前收入為 4.306 億美元，而 2022 財年第二季度為 2.958 億美元。淨收入為 3.202 億美元或每股攤薄收益 2.85 美元，而一年前為 2.206 億美元和每股攤薄收益 1.85 美元。導致季度末每股賬面價值為 58.67 美元。

Our second quarter adjusted gross margin was 28.3% compared to 26.1% in the second quarter of 2022, and that was 130 basis points better than projected. The improvement was due primarily to better cost control and fixed cost leverage on a higher-than-expected homebuilding revenues.

我們第二季度調整後的毛利率為 28.3%，而 2022 年第二季度為 26.1%，比預期高 130 個基點。改善主要是由於更好的成本控制和固定成本槓桿對高於預期的房屋建築收入。

As Doug mentioned, we are raising our full year adjusted gross margin guidance from 27.0% to 27.8%. In our third quarter, we expect adjusted gross margin of 27.7%. During our most recent quarter, impairments and write-offs in homebuilding cost of revenues were approximately $11 million. About $6 million of this related to sunk predevelopment and walkaway costs with the remainder related to 3 operating communities.

正如道格所提到的，我們將全年調整後的毛利率指引從 27.0% 提高到 27.8%。在我們的第三季度，我們預計調整後的毛利率為 27.7%。在我們最近一個季度，房屋建築收入成本的減值和註銷約為 1100 萬美元。其中約 600 萬美元與預開發和無人值守成本有關，其餘與 3 個運營社區有關。

SG&A as a percentage of revenue was 9.1% in the second quarter compared to 11.1% in the second quarter of last year, and that was 210 basis points better than projected. SG&A expense was $16 million lower in Q2 of fiscal year '23 compared to last year's second quarter. $13 million of this improvement was from lower G&A costs with selling and marketing expenses $3 million lower.

第二季度 SG&A 佔收入的百分比為 9.1%，而去年第二季度為 11.1%，比預期高出 210 個基點。與去年第二季度相比，23 財年第二季度的 SG&A 費用減少了 1600 萬美元。這一改進中有 1300 萬美元來自於較低的 G&A 成本以及 300 萬美元的銷售和營銷費用。

As we enter the second half of the year, we expect our G&A cost to remain relatively flat on a dollar basis as we continue to benefit from previous cost reductions, with modest increases in selling and advertising costs as the homes we sold in the slower second half of fiscal year '22 are being delivered over the next several quarters.

隨著我們進入今年下半年，我們預計我們的 G&A 成本將以美元為基礎保持相對平穩，因為我們繼續受益於之前的成本削減，銷售和廣告成本適度增加，因為我們在較慢的第二個銷售房屋'22 財年的一半將在接下來的幾個季度內交付。

Overall, we are projecting full year SG&A costs to be approximately 10% of homebuilding revenues, which would be about flat compared to fiscal year 2022 and which represents a 100 basis point improvement from our prior guidance.

總體而言，我們預計全年 SG&A 成本將佔住宅建築收入的 10% 左右，與 2022 財年相比基本持平，比我們之前的指導提高了 100 個基點。

For the third quarter of fiscal year 2023, we expect SG&A to be approximately 9.7% of homebuilding revenue. Second quarter JV, land sale and other income was approximately $1 million, in line with our breakeven guidance. We are maintaining our full year guidance for this item at $125 million. We expect third quarter joint venture, land sales and other income to be approximately $25 million. With the balance in the fourth quarter coming primarily from several apartment projects, we are working to sell before year-end.

對於 2023 財年第三季度，我們預計 SG&A 將佔住宅建築收入的 9.7% 左右。第二季度合資企業、土地出售和其他收入約為 100 萬美元，符合我們的盈虧平衡指引。我們將該項目的全年指導維持在 1.25 億美元。我們預計第三季度的合資、土地銷售和其他收入約為 2500 萬美元。由於第四季度的餘額主要來自幾個公寓項目，我們正努力在年底前出售。

Our tax rate in the quarter was 25.6%, slightly better than guidance of 26%. We finished the quarter with a net debt-to-capital ratio of 23.5%, $762 million in cash and equivalents, and $1.8 billion available under our $1.9 billion revolving bank credit facility. During the quarter, we retired $400 million of [4.38%] senior notes at maturity and extended the term loan and revolving bank credit facilities out 5 years.

我們本季度的稅率為 25.6%，略好於 26% 的指引。本季度結束時，我們的淨債務資本比率為 23.5%，現金和等價物為 7.62 億美元，我們的 19 億美元循環銀行信貸額度下有 18 億美元可用。在本季度，我們收回了 4 億美元 [4.38%] 到期的優先票據，並將定期貸款和循環銀行信貸額度延長了 5 年。

As a result, we have no significant bank or senior debt maturities until fiscal 2026. This financial position provides us with ample flexibility to both grow our business and return capital to our shareholders. We are projecting fiscal year 2023 3rd quarter deliveries of between 2,350 and 2,450 homes with an average price of $1,015 million.

因此，我們在 2026 財年之前沒有重大的銀行或高級債務到期。這種財務狀況為我們提供了足夠的靈活性來發展我們的業務和向股東返還資本。我們預計 2023 財年第三季度將交付 2,350 至 2,450 套房屋，平均價格為 10.15 億美元。

As Doug noted, we expect full year deliveries to be between 8,900 and 9,500. We have also increased our projected full year average delivered price to be between $975,000 and $995,000, which is $10,000 above our prior guidance at the midpoint. We expect interest in cost of sales to be approximately 1.5% in the third quarter and for the full year as we continue to benefit from our reduced leverage. We expect community count to be approximately 360 at the end of the third quarter and approximately 385 by fiscal year-end. We also expect continued community count growth in fiscal year 2024.

正如 Doug 指出的那樣，我們預計全年交付量將在 8,900 到 9,500 之間。我們還將預計的全年平均交付價格提高到 975,000 美元至 995,000 美元之間，比我們之前的中點指導價格高出 10,000 美元。我們預計第三季度和全年的銷售成本利息約為 1.5%，因為我們繼續受益於我們降低的槓桿率。我們預計到第三季度末社區數量約為 360，到財年末約為 385。我們還預計 2024 財年社區數量將持續增長。

We project a tax rate of approximately 26% for the third quarter and 25.7% for the full year. Our weighted average share count is expected to be 111 million for the full year and 110.5 million for the third quarter. Based on all these factors, we project earnings between $10 and $11 per diluted share for the full year, with the return on beginning equity approaching 20%.

我們預計第三季度的稅率約為 26%，全年的稅率約為 25.7%。我們全年的加權平均股數預計為 1.11 億股，第三季度為 1.105 億股。基於所有這些因素，我們預計全年每股攤薄收益在 10 美元至 11 美元之間，期初股本回報率接近 20%。

Now let me turn it back to Doug.

現在讓我把它轉回道格。

Thank you, Marty. Before I open it up for questions, I'd like to once again thank all of our Toll employees for their hard work this quarter. Your dedication and commitment to our customers is key to our continued success.

謝謝你，馬蒂。在我提出問題之前，我想再次感謝所有 Toll 員工本季度的辛勤工作。您對我們客戶的奉獻和承諾是我們持續成功的關鍵。

With that, Jamie, let's open it up for questions.

有了這個，傑米，讓我們開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today comes from John Lovallo from UBS.

（操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題來自瑞銀的 John Lovallo。

This is actually Spencer Kaufman on for John. Nice quarter. Apologies for starting off with a glass half-empty question here, but rates have certainly picked up over the last few weeks, and you guys kind of alluded to this, but have you seen any impact to demand thus far? And if rates sort of stay at 7% would you expect incentive activity and cancellation rates to pick back up again for the industry?

這實際上是約翰的斯賓塞考夫曼。不錯的季度。很抱歉從一個半空的問題開始，但過去幾周利率肯定有所回升，你們提到了這一點，但到目前為止你們是否看到對需求的任何影響？如果利率保持在 7%，您是否預計該行業的獎勵活動和取消率會再次回升？

Spencer, the answer is no. We have not seen any drop in activity over the last few weeks as rates have moved up a little bit. In fact, May, if we look back historically, just because of seasonality as the spring season begins to wind down and may represent graduations and weddings and opening of summer homes. May generally is down historically for the company, about 30%, it's off from April. And that's a historic number that goes back long before the COVID years, and we're only 3 weeks a year in, but May right now, it's trending significantly better than being down that 30%.

斯賓塞，答案是否定的。由於利率略有上升，我們在過去幾週沒有看到任何活動下降。事實上，如果我們回顧歷史，5 月只是因為季節性，春季開始結束，可能代表畢業典禮、婚禮和避暑別墅的開放。公司從歷史上看，5 月總體下降了 30%，與 4 月相比有所下降。這是一個歷史性的數字，可以追溯到 COVID 年代之前很久，我們一年只有 3 週，但現在是 5 月，它的趨勢明顯好於下降 30%。

In fact, we look back to 2019, and this May, so far, through 3 weeks is up fairly significantly over May of '19 when rates were in the low 4s. So I don't have that crystal ball as to where this market goes. If the rates continue to sit at 7%. But so far, for the last couple of weeks, we're very pleased with the continued very strong activity with rates at that level.

事實上，我們回顧 2019 年，今年 5 月，到目前為止，通過 3 週的時間比 19 年 5 月利率處於低 4 秒時顯著上升。所以我沒有關於這個市場走向的水晶球。如果利率繼續保持在 7%。但到目前為止，在過去的幾周里，我們對利率保持在該水平的持續非常強勁的活動感到非常滿意。

Okay. Yes, that's actually really encouraging and good to hear. Maybe just on I think you guys mentioned that you've been able to increase pricing by about $25,000 per home in the quarter. Just curious as to which markets you're finding an ability to do that or a little bit higher than that? And maybe which markets are being a little bit more stubborn right now?

好的。是的，這真的很鼓舞人心，也很高興聽到。也許就在我想你們提到你們已經能夠在本季度將每戶家庭的價格提高約 25,000 美元。只是想知道您發現哪些市場有能力做到這一點或比這更高一點？也許現在哪些市場更加頑固？

Sure. So it's around the country. We don't raise price by market. We raise it by community based on the activity. The brightest spot for us would be Atlanta -- excuse me, 1 second, would be Atlanta, all of Texas, Florida, California, which is doing really well and Pennsylvania, New Jersey. Those are the strongest but again, we're seeing that pricing power and good activity around the country. The softest markets today would be Seattle. And while Phoenix has improved, it's still not back to where we would hope it would be.

當然。所以它在全國各地。我們不按市場提價。我們根據活動通過社區籌集資金。對我們來說最亮的地方是亞特蘭大——對不起，請稍等一下，亞特蘭大、德克薩斯州、佛羅里達州、加利福尼亞州的所有地區都做得很好，還有新澤西州的賓夕法尼亞州。那些是最強大的，但我們再次看到全國各地的定價能力和良好的活動。今天最疲軟的市場將是西雅圖。儘管 Phoenix 有所改善，但仍未回到我們希望的水平。

Our next question comes from Michael Rehaut from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Michael Rehaut。

Congrats on the results. First question, kind of thinking about gross margins in the back half, and it looks like the guide is for something a little less than the second quarter. And just trying to think about how the interplay of maybe prior incentives in a softer back half might be influencing that? And given the improved pricing that you've seen in the second quarter, how to think about gross margins in the backlog? And if the back half of '23, is there any good way to think about kind of a launching point into next year, not necessarily talking about guidance for next year, but just some of the puts and takes as you see things playing out over the next few quarters?

祝賀結果。第一個問題，有點考慮後半部分的毛利率，看起來指南是針對比第二季度少一點的東西。只是想想想在較軟的後半場中可能先前激勵的相互作用可能會如何影響這一點？鑑於您在第二季度看到的定價有所改善，如何考慮積壓訂單中的毛利率？如果在 23 年的後半段，是否有任何好的方法來考慮明年的啟動點，不一定要談論明年的指導，而只是在你看到事情發生時的一些看跌期權接下來的幾個季度？

Sure. So -- and then, Marty, please follow me. The back half of this year's deliveries are primarily coming from those 9 months we had from last May until the end of the year when our orders were down 60%, 60% and 50%. And so during that time, we had to increase our broker commissions a bit. We had to incentivize a bit more. We -- as you know and we've talked about, we did not chase the bottom. So we were not giving massive discounts, we were patient, and I think that patience has paid off. But we did have to incentivize more as we've talked about. The incentive back in that time frame was in the, call it, $70,000 per home range. And right now, it's $50,000 and trending down. So that's a bit of a headwind, but it's not all that dramatic, particularly since we have the tailwind of lower lumber costs, which will be helping us as we move forward.

當然。那麼——然後，Marty，請跟我來。今年後半部分的交付主要來自我們從去年 5 月到年底的那 9 個月，當時我們的訂單下降了 60%、60% 和 50%。因此，在那段時間裡，我們不得不稍微增加經紀人佣金。我們必須多一點激勵。我們 - 如您所知並且我們已經談到，我們沒有追逐底部。所以我們沒有提供大量折扣，我們很有耐心，我認為耐心得到了回報。但正如我們所討論的那樣，我們確實必須激勵更多。當時的激勵措施是每個家庭範圍 70,000 美元。而現在，它是 50,000 美元並且呈下降趨勢。所以這有點不利，但並不是那麼劇烈，特別是因為我們有較低的木材成本的順風，這將在我們前進的過程中幫助我們。

When you ask about '24, we're not going to give guidance right now on '24 except to say that we should continue to have the nice tailwind of lower lumber. Lumber this week just broke below $400, a 1,000 board feet as it continues to trend down. And as we've talked about, the last 3.5 months -- excuse me, 4.5 months since January have had strong sales and a reduction in incentives, so next year, we'll not be delivering very many of those homes during those 9 months of slower times that concluded '22, but will be more reflective of the sales that have occurred in the last 4 months. So I'm not -- again, we're not going to give those details, but I think that gives you a pretty good flavor of where we are.

當你問到 24 年時，我們現在不會在 24 年給出指導，只是說我們應該繼續擁有較低木材的順風。木材本周剛剛跌破 400 美元，即 1,000 板英尺，因為它繼續呈下降趨勢。正如我們所說，過去 3.5 個月——對不起，自 1 月以來的 4.5 個月銷售強勁，激勵措施減少，所以明年，我們不會在這 9 個月內交付很多這樣的房屋結束 '22 的較慢時間，但將更多地反映過去 4 個月內發生的銷售情況。所以我不是 - 再次強調，我們不會提供這些細節，但我認為這讓你對我們所處的位置有一個很好的了解。

I don't have much to add to that, Doug. I think I would just emphasize that we didn't chase the market 9 months ago than some of these gross margins that we have just reported and that we are projecting are reflective of that.

我沒有太多要補充的，道格。我想我只想強調，我們在 9 個月前沒有追逐市場，而不是我們剛剛報告的一些毛利率和我們正在預測的毛利率反映了這一點。

Right. That makes sense. I appreciate that. I guess just shifting to the balance sheet and the share repurchase activity, just wanted to confirm, number one, that the share count guidance, and correct me if I'm wrong, I believe it had originally assumed $100 million of repurchase per quarter each quarter for this year. I wanted to know if that's still the case. And secondly, given the strength of the balance sheet, and you've been kind of on a pretty consistent share repurchase cadence for the last few years. If we could expect, if it's reasonable to expect something similar, if not even maybe slightly bigger, just given the strength in the balance sheet and the consistency here of growth potentially.

正確的。這就說得通了。我很感激。我想只是轉向資產負債表和股票回購活動，只是想確認，第一，股票數量指導，如果我錯了請糾正我，我相信它最初假設每個季度回購 1 億美元今年的季度。我想知道情況是否仍然如此。其次，考慮到資產負債表的實力，過去幾年你的股票回購節奏一直很穩定。如果我們可以預期，如果有理由預期類似的事情，即使不是稍微大一點，只要考慮到資產負債表的實力和潛在增長的一致性。

Sure. Mike, we're about $100 million into share repurchases for this year. And while we said $100 million a quarter, our real target is around $400 million for the year. Our cash flow is generally better in the back end of the year. And remember, we had $400 million of debt that we -- an eyeball to pay off here in April. So cash flow and cash usage is going to be a little bit more free in the back half of this year. So we're still at $400 million, which is $300 million over the next 2 quarters. As it relates to beyond that, I don't think we're going to get very specific but repurchases and return on equity and equity management are all part of the capital allocation strategy.

當然。邁克，我們今年大約有 1 億美元用於股票回購。雖然我們說每季度 1 億美元，但我們的實際目標是全年 4 億美元左右。我們的現金流在年底通常會更好。請記住，我們有 4 億美元的債務，我們需要在 4 月份在這裡償還債務。因此，今年下半年現金流和現金使用將更加自由。所以我們仍然是 4 億美元，在接下來的兩個季度裡是 3 億美元。與此相關的是，我認為我們不會變得非常具體，但回購和股權回報以及股權管理都是資本配置策略的一部分。

Our next question comes from Stephen Kim from Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Stephen Kim。

Very encouraging everything you've said so far. I wanted to just pick up on the capital allocation comments there, Marty. Particularly on 2 fronts. One is land spend intentions. We're at a conference, and we're seeing -- we're hearing a lot of chatter about how tighter credit conditions for smaller builders is making things very difficult for them and narrowing the range options for getting projects developed.

到目前為止你所說的一切都非常鼓舞人心。馬蒂，我只想了解那裡的資本配置評論。特別是在 2 個方面。一是土地支出意向。我們在一個會議上，我們看到——我們聽到很多關於小型建築商的信貸條件如何收緊如何讓他們的事情變得非常困難並縮小項目開發範圍選擇的討論。

And I'm wondering whether or not you're seeing that, hearing that and whether that is in your eyes, creating an increased opportunity set to acquire land and possibly maybe smaller builders as we look forward over the next year or 2, and if that's something that you're increasingly thinking about. And then secondarily, with respect to inventory, we would generally think that as cycle times move back down, that you could free up some of the dollars in inventory in your CIP, construction in progress. But you're also doing more specs, which could push it the other way. So can you tell me, Marty, whether you think that your overall CIP could benefit from some dollars being released net of those 2 factors?

我想知道您是否看到、聽到以及是否在您的眼中，創造了更多的機會來獲得土地，並可能在我們期待明年或 2 年時獲得更小的建築商，如果這是你越來越多地考慮的事情。其次，關於庫存，我們通常認為，隨著周期時間回落，您可以釋放 CIP 中的一些庫存美元，在建工程。但是你也在做更多的規範，這可能會把它推向另一個方向。那麼，你能告訴我，馬蒂，你是否認為你的整體 CIP 可以從扣除這兩個因素後釋放的一些美元中受益？

So Marty, you take that one, and then I'll take the first one.

所以馬蒂，你拿那個，然後我拿第一個。

All right. I think between the growth in community count and the spec strategy, that it will offset about equally the cash flow from quick returns. So I think I'd consider that a neutral, Stephen.

好的。我認為在社區數量的增長和規範策略之間，它將大致相等地抵消來自快速回報的現金流。所以我想我會認為這是中立的，斯蒂芬。

Great.

偉大的。

Okay. And then on smaller builders pressure they're feeling with their banking relations, M&A, land, everything you describe and everything you're hearing at this conference you're at is, absolutely accurate. We are seeing more land opportunities being presented by smaller builders who are now becoming sellers and not builders. It's interesting because in the last couple of weeks, we've seen more improved lots, ready-to-go land opportunities that can feed our pipeline faster because of other builders who have decided they're going to take a smaller profit, but they're going to take a profit and become sellers and not builders. I think that will continue and that will accelerate. There's profit in their land. And so they're going to get out when they can because they're feeling the pressure and they are concerned with -- they're more regional and local banking relationships.

好的。然後對較小的建築商施加壓力，他們在銀行關係、併購、土地、你描述的一切以及你在本次會議上聽到的一切都是絕對準確的。我們看到小型建築商提供了更多的土地機會，他們現在正在成為賣家而不是建築商。這很有趣，因為在過去的幾周里，我們看到了更多改進的地塊、隨時可用的土地機會，這些機會可以更快地滿足我們的管道需求，因為其他建築商已經決定他們將減少利潤，但他們將獲利並成為賣家而不是建築商。我認為這將繼續下去，而且會加速。他們的土地上有利潤。因此，他們會在可能的時候離開，因為他們感受到了壓力並且他們擔心 - 他們更多的是區域和本地銀行關係。

And so that same theory, that same concept is also beginning to show itself with local M&A. We are seeing an increase in potential M&A deals. Again, this is small privates as I think they recognize, they have a pretty good story to tell. They can put a nice book together, that shows the last couple of years of good sales, good margin. And maybe this is the time to try to sell the company because of the banking pressures they're feeling. And so yes, there's more action in that regard, too. And we'll see where it plays out. But I think it's going to just develop even more.

因此，同樣的理論，同樣的概念也開始在本地併購中顯現出來。我們看到潛在的併購交易在增加。再一次，我認為他們是小兵，他們有一個很好的故事要講。他們可以把一本好書放在一起，展示過去幾年的良好銷售和良好的利潤率。也許現在是時候嘗試出售公司了，因為他們感受到了銀行業的壓力。所以是的，在這方面也有更多的行動。我們將看看結果如何。但我認為它只會發展得更多。

Yes. I really appreciate that. I do think that's going to be a very important emerging trend this year and into next year. Lastly, I'm just going to touch on the SG&A comment. I think you had indicated that marketing costs were a little higher during the back half of last year, and those are going to be delivered in the back half of this year. Mike already touched on the gross margin. But on the SG&A and the marketing costs, I believe you put agent or agent bonuses and stuff like that into your marketing costs. Is it reasonable to think that these bonuses or whatever your overall external agent commissions went up during that ugly period and are trending back down now? And if you could give us some sense of maybe how much we should think that dynamic has -- how big that dynamic is?

是的。我真的很感激。我確實認為這將成為今年和明年的一個非常重要的新興趨勢。最後，我只想談談 SG&A 評論。我想你曾表示去年下半年營銷成本略高，這些將在今年下半年交付。邁克已經談到了毛利率。但關於 SG&A 和營銷成本，我相信你將代理人或代理人獎金和類似的東西計入你的營銷成本。認為這些獎金或您的整體外部代理人佣金在那個醜陋的時期上漲並且現在呈回落趨勢是否合理？如果你能給我們一些感覺，也許我們應該認為這種動態有多大——這種動態有多大？

I think at this point, Stephen, the agent cost definitely did go up during that time. They haven't quite come down yet. I think the marketing spend has moderated a bit from what it was then. And I think the guidance we've given for the back end of the year, we're very comfortable with, and we'll leave it at that and see where the market goes from there.

我認為在這一點上，斯蒂芬，代理成本在那段時間確實上升了。他們還沒有完全下來。我認為營銷支出比當時有所緩和。而且我認為我們對今年年底給出的指導，我們非常滿意，我們會把它留在那兒，看看市場從那裡走向何方。

Our next question comes from Rafe Jadrosich from Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Rafe Jadrosich。

You gave the percent -- the spec percent of orders at 40%. How much was deliveries -- what percent of deliveries were spec in the quarter? And then can you just talk about the spec strategy going forward and longer term?

你給出了百分比——訂單的規格百分比為 40%。交付量是多少——本季度交付量的百分比是多少？然後你能談談未來和長期的規格策略嗎？

Sure. So 25% of deliveries in Q2 were spec, and we are comfortable with 40% spec mix moving forward. We think the huge hole that's being left in the resale market due to lock-in effect that I spoke of in my prepared remarks is here for some time. And the spec strategy fills that void. It's been very successful for us. And so 40% is a number that we are comfortable with.

當然。因此，第二季度 25% 的交付是規格，我們對未來 40% 的規格組合感到滿意。我們認為，由於我在準備好的發言中提到的鎖定效應，轉售市場留下的巨大漏洞已經存在一段時間了。而規格策略填補了這一空白。這對我們來說非常成功。所以 40% 是一個我們滿意的數字。

It's very actively managed at various stages of construction. Spec target is set for each community that's about to open, and the teams are very familiar with how to manage not getting over specked and trying not to be under specked.

它在施工的各個階段都得到了非常積極的管理。為每個即將開放的社區設定了規範目標，團隊非常熟悉如何管理不被過度關注和盡量不被低估。

Right. So if you have, as an example, just to make the math easy, if a community is running 25 sales a year, and we may say in that case, okay, this is a good spec market. Let's have 10 a year be spec, but they're getting cadenced out. And as I mentioned, we count a spec from foundation forward. So we may have 3 or 4 between foundation and framing and then 2 or 3 between framing and drywall, and then 2 or 3 close to finish, and if you buy that -- if you choose one of those at the earlier stage, you can still go to the design studio and customize it to your lifestyle. But if you want a quick move in then you may pick one that's further along where we have picked the finishes.

正確的。因此，舉個例子，如果一個社區每年進行 25 次銷售，我們可能會說，好吧，這是一個很好的規格市場。讓我們每年有 10 個成為規格，但它們正在被淘汰。正如我所提到的，我們從基礎開始計算一個規範。所以我們可能在地基和框架之間有 3 或 4 個，然後在框架和石膏板之間有 2 或 3 個，然後在接近完成時有 2 或 3 個，如果你購買 - 如果你在早期選擇其中一個，你可以仍然去設計工作室並根據您的生活方式對其進行定制。但是，如果您想快速入住，那麼您可以選擇距離我們選擇的飾面更遠的地方。

Remember the new home spring season generally runs from January to April and the used home, the resale market generally runs from April through July. And so right now, we are in what you would consider the end of a new home spring season, but the beginning of a used home or resale spring season. And as the buyers that thought they wanted to resale because they want to move in quickly, they want to get the kids in by August so they can start the new school year without moving boxes particularly if it's a new school district, they're hitting the market now and realizing there's no inventory, and so they naturally gravitate to the new homes where we now have spec available for them that can get them in, in a shorter time frame.

請記住，新房春季通常從 1 月到 4 月，二手房的轉售市場通常從 4 月到 7 月。所以現在，我們正處於你認為新房春季結束的階段，但二手房或轉售春季的開始。作為那些認為他們想要轉售是因為他們想快速入住的買家，他們希望在 8 月之前讓孩子們入住，這樣他們就可以在不搬箱子的情況下開始新學年，特別是如果它是一個新的學區，他們正在打擊現在市場上並意識到沒有庫存，因此他們自然而然地被吸引到我們現在為他們提供規格的新房，可以在更短的時間內讓他們入住。

And that's why I believe May has been so good for us and why I believe there is an opportunity. We'll have to see how it plays out, that the new home market this year may extend and continue into the historic resale market of the summer months because of this hole that we are filling in that vacant resale market.

這就是為什麼我相信五月對我們如此有利，以及為什麼我相信有機會。我們必須看看結果如何，今年的新房市場可能會擴展並繼續進入夏季的歷史性轉售市場，因為我們正在填補那個空置轉售市場的空缺。

That's really helpful. And then just to follow up on some earlier comments on sort of the gross margin cadence. You talked about how in the second half of the year, you're delivering homes that were sold when the market was softer. For the orders that you're taking today, are you seeing a sequential improvement on gross margin from prior quarters because the incentives are down, and you're still -- you're seeing the tailwind from lower lumber costs.

這真的很有幫助。然後只是跟進一些早期關於毛利率節奏的評論。您談到了下半年如何交付市場疲軟時售出的房屋。對於您今天接受的訂單，您是否看到前幾個季度的毛利率連續改善，因為激勵措施減少了，而且您仍然 - 您看到木材成本降低的順風。

So the gross margin today is definitely better than the gross margin for those homes that were sold between May of '22 and December of '22. And we are seeing a reduction in incentives or an increase in price, as we mentioned, of about $25,000. So the answer there, of course, is yes. With the only what I'll call modest headwind to that being that spec margins have sort of reverted back to the pre-COVID margin, which is modestly lower than the to-be-built margin.

因此，今天的毛利率肯定好於那些在 22 年 5 月至 22 年 12 月之間售出的房屋的毛利率。正如我們提到的，我們看到激勵措施減少或價格上漲約 25,000 美元。所以答案當然是肯定的。唯一我稱之為適度逆風的是，規格利潤率已經恢復到 COVID 之前的利潤率，略低於待建利潤率。

Remember, through COVID, there was a premium margin. There's a premium price for specs because the market was so anxious to get into a new home and it was taking so long to build -- to be built because of the disruption in labor and supply. We have now, as an industry, and I think you've heard it from the others, reverted back to where the spec margin is modestly below to be built. So that is the only minor, what I'll call, a headwind to what I described as the other tailwinds of better market today than we saw last year, lower lumber costs and a reduction in incentives, increase in pricing in more than half of our communities.

請記住，通過 COVID，可以獲得溢價。規格的價格很高，因為市場非常急於進入新房，而且由於勞動力和供應中斷而需要很長時間才能建造。我們現在，作為一個行業，我想你已經從其他人那裡聽說過，回到了規格利潤率略低於要建立的地方。所以這是唯一的次要因素，我稱之為逆風，我稱之為今天比去年更好的市場的其他順風，木材成本降低和激勵措施減少，超過一半的價格上漲我們的社區。

Our next question comes from Alex Barron from Housing Research Center.

我們的下一個問題來自住房研究中心的 Alex Barron。

Yes. In yesterday's new home sales report, it shows that the growth is starting to come back in year-over-year orders and it showed that it was mostly predominant and lower-priced houses, so I was curious if these specs that you guys are starting, are they more focused on the affordable luxury segment, or how are you guys thinking about that?

是的。在昨天的新屋銷售報告中，它顯示訂單的同比增長開始回升，而且主要是價格較低的房屋，所以我很好奇你們是否開始使用這些規格，他們是否更專注於負擔得起的奢侈品領域，或者你們如何看待這一點？

Alex, they are not. We are building spec around the country. But of course, as we've gone down in price a bit with the affordable luxury initiative we've been talking about. And if you look at the new markets we've entered over the last 3 or 4 years, Atlanta, Tampa, Charleston, Greenville, Myrtle Beach, Hilton Head, Boise, Idaho, Salt Lake City, San Antonio, those are some of our more recent entries, they tend to be lower priced. So our footprint geographically and therefore by price has certainly come down, so we're building more spec in less expensive areas, not because of a strategy but more because that's where we now build.

亞歷克斯，他們不是。我們正在全國范圍內建立規範。但是，當然，由於我們一直在談論的負擔得起的奢侈品計劃，我們的價格有所下降。如果你看看我們在過去 3 或 4 年進入的新市場，亞特蘭大、坦帕、查爾斯頓、格林維爾、默特爾比奇、希爾頓黑德、博伊西、愛達荷州、鹽湖城、聖安東尼奧，這些都是我們的一些較新的條目，它們的價格往往較低。因此，我們在地理上和價格上的足跡肯定已經下降，所以我們在成本較低的地區建立更多的規格，不是因為戰略，而是因為那是我們現在建立的地方。

About 45% of our sales right now are in what we call internally this affordable luxury price point, 35% are true luxury, and 20% is age targeted. And so the mix of the company has now come down, which is making us even more confident in the spec strategy because, obviously, at the lower prices, there's going to be more demand for the spec, but that does not mean in Southern Cal and in Northern Cal and in some of the Texas markets and in Denver, and I can go on and on, higher-priced areas, we are not building spec. We're very deliberate. We're very thoughtful. I took you through before sort of the strategy of how the specs are cadenced out, so there are at different stages of construction. But the spec strategy is nationwide, but because of our mix, it's now more naturally targeted to a bit lower than it would have 5, 10 years ago.

我們目前約有 45% 的銷售額處於我們內部稱之為負擔得起的奢侈品價格點，35% 是真正的奢侈品，20% 是針對年齡的。因此，公司的組合現在已經下降，這使我們對規格策略更有信心，因為顯然，在較低的價格下，對規格的需求將會增加，但這並不意味著在南加州在北加州、德克薩斯州的一些市場和丹佛，我可以繼續說下去，價格較高的地區，我們沒有建立規範。我們很刻意。我們很周到。我之前向您介紹了規範如何節奏的策略，因此存在不同的構建階段。但規格策略是全國性的，但由於我們的組合，它現在更自然地比 5 年、10 年前的目標低一點。

Just to follow on that mix comment from Doug. The stats he gave of 45% affordable luxury are units based. If you were to do a dollars-based it would be 35% affordable luxury and 45% luxury and 20% active adult. So swing 10 percentage points between units and dollars between affordable luxury and luxury.

只是為了遵循 Doug 的混合評論。他給出的 45% 負擔得起的奢侈品的統計數據是基於單位的。如果你要以美元為基礎，它將是 35% 的負擔得起的奢侈品和 45% 的奢侈品和 20% 的活躍成年人。因此，在負擔得起的奢侈品和奢侈品之間，在單位和美元之間搖擺 10 個百分點。

So I'm a marketing guy. I talk units and Marty is a finance guy as he should he talks dollars.

所以我是一個營銷人員。我談論單位，而馬蒂是一名財務人員，他應該談論美元。

Got it. That's very helpful, guys. And then I thought your comment on the private builders selling land and that opening up M&A opportunities that seem very interesting. So if you guys were to consider some potential M&A with private builders, what would be the criteria? Is it more geography-based? Is it more large in increasing the size of an existing market or more like entering a new market? Or what is the way you guys would think about a potential M&A opportunity for you there?

知道了。這很有幫助，伙計們。然後我想到你對出售土地的私人建築商的評論以及開放的併購機會似乎非常有趣。那麼，如果你們考慮與私人建築商進行一些潛在的併購，標準是什麼？它更基於地理嗎？是擴大現有市場的規模更大，還是更像是進入一個新市場？或者你們會如何考慮那裡的潛在併購機會？

We're really happy with the geographic footprint. So it's not to say there wouldn't be a builder of interest in a market that we're not in yet, but it's more likely that the M&A would make us bigger, more diverse in one of our existing markets. We'll just have to see how those deals flow, but as I said, I think it's more likely that it goes that route, which means it becomes a big land deal because we have an organization, we have a brand. We have to be careful not to pay too big of a premium or not using that builder to enter a new market. So the deal flow is there, we'll just see. If we were to do a deal or 2, that would certainly help with some deliveries in 2024. And so we're certainly aware of that and focused on that, but we'll stay tuned. There's nothing to report right now. There's no -- we're not in the final stages of negotiation on anything, but we have noticed over the last month or so that activity is picking up.

我們對地理足跡非常滿意。所以這並不是說我們還沒有進入的市場不會有興趣的建設者，但併購更有可能使我們在現有市場之一中變得更大、更多樣化。我們只需要看看這些交易是如何進行的，但正如我所說，我認為它更有可能走這條路，這意味著它會成為一筆大土地交易，因為我們有一個組織，我們有一個品牌。我們必須小心不要支付太大的溢價或不使用該建築商進入新市場。所以交易流程就在那裡，我們拭目以待。如果我們要達成一兩筆交易，那肯定會有助於 2024 年的一些交付。因此我們當然意識到這一點並專注於此，但我們會繼續關注。現在沒有什麼可報告的。沒有——我們還沒有進入任何談判的最後階段，但我們注意到在過去一個月左右的時間裡，活動正在增加。

Yes. And as it relates to kind of the one-off pieces of land that those builders may choose to sell, it is certainly in our eyesights that deals that they take to market that can drive deliveries for us in 2024 are that much more attractive.

是的。由於它涉及那些建築商可能選擇出售的一次性土地，因此在我們看來，他們推向市場的交易可以推動我們在 2024 年交付的交易更具吸引力。

Our next question comes from Alan Ratner from Zelman & Associates.

我們的下一個問題來自 Zelman & Associates 的 Alan Ratner。

Really great quarter, congratulations. Doug, first, I'd love to drill in on a couple of disclosures you gave early on about your credit profile of buyers and then just some commentary about relocation. First, on the relocation side, do you track the percentage of your buyers that are moving across state lines? And what does that trend look like over the last several years and more recently? And then second, on the down payment side, I think you mentioned your average LTV on loans is 30% -- or excuse me, at 70%. Do you track kind of down payment assistance from family from parents and then how that metric has been tracking as well of late?

真的很棒的季度，恭喜。道格，首先，我想詳細了解一下您早些時候披露的有關買家信用狀況的幾項信息，然後是一些關於搬遷的評論。首先，在搬遷方面，您是否跟踪跨州搬遷的買家的百分比？在過去幾年和最近幾年，這種趨勢是什麼樣的？其次，在首付方面，我想你提到你的平均 LTV 貸款是 30%——或者對不起，是 70%。您是否跟踪過父母提供的家庭首付援助，以及該指標最近的跟踪情況如何？

As to the latter, no. We don't and that's very hard to get your arms around.

至於後者，沒有。我們不這樣做，而且很難得到您的支持。

But it is a factor for sure. Anecdotally, it is a factor.

但這是一個肯定的因素。有趣的是，這是一個因素。

Absolutely.

絕對地。

Positive factor.

積極因素。

The wealth transfer is growing, right? Just look at the demographics with the boomers, you have 75 million boomers who are going to be passing their wealth down. I mean I remember when I was 26 years old, and I was starting my first job, and my dad didn't give me -- my parents didn't give me money, but thankfully, my father, cosign my mortgage, which is another form of helping out.

財富轉移正在增長，對吧？只要看看嬰兒潮一代的人口統計數據，就有 7500 萬嬰兒潮一代將把他們的財富傳承下去。我的意思是，我記得我 26 歲那年，我開始了第一份工作，我爸爸沒有給我——我父母沒有給我錢，但謝天謝地，我爸爸幫我簽了抵押貸款，這是另一種形式的幫助。

With respect to your question about relo, during COVID, when everybody was running for the hills or the sun or the beach, we had about 40% of our sales were coming from another state. We're now running at about 35%. That number is up from pre-COVID, but it has certainly come down, as you would expect, as things are back to normal. With respect to your question about creditworthiness and loan to value. As I mentioned, we're running -- we have 23% of our buyers all cash. That's up from about 20%, which makes sense as rates are higher, let's put more cash in and take the mortgage. Most of that 23% cash is the active adult, the empty nester because they're trading down. They have built a lot of equity in their prior home, and they built wealth in their life. Affordable luxury is running about 75% loan-to-value. Luxury is running about 68% loan-to-value and age targeted, age restricted for the reasons I gave about many of those are cash buyers or more cash, that group is running 59% loan-to-value.

關於你關於 relo 的問題，在 COVID 期間，當每個人都在為山上、陽光下或海灘奔跑時，我們大約 40% 的銷售額來自另一個州。我們現在的運行速度約為 35%。這個數字比 COVID 之前有所上升，但正如您所期望的那樣，隨著一切恢復正常，它肯定有所下降。關於您關於信用度和貸款價值的問題。正如我提到的，我們正在運行——我們有 23% 的買家都是現金。這比大約 20% 高，這是有道理的，因為利率更高，讓我們投入更多現金並獲得抵押貸款。這 23% 的現金中的大部分是活躍的成年人，空巢老人，因為他們正在交易。他們在以前的家中積累了大量資產，並在生活中積累了財富。負擔得起的奢侈品的貸款價值比約為 75%。奢侈品的貸款價值比和年齡目標約為 68%，由於我給出的原因，年齡受到限制，其中許多人是現金買家或更多現金，該群體的貸款價值比為 59%。

Very helpful. A lot of great data in action. The other question I had, just going back to the spec build-to-order. So I was a little surprised that you referenced a small gross margin spread between specs and build-to-order. Only I would have thought that for you guys, given the margins you generate on options and upgrades and designs that would be a greater headwind on a spec product since you're not getting as much of that, so is that just a function of when the timing of when you sell the specs that you're still selling them fairly early on at this point in the construction process. So you're getting more of those upgrades?

很有幫助。大量重要數據在起作用。我的另一個問題，只是回到規格按訂單生產。所以我有點驚訝你提到規格和按訂單生產之間的毛利率差很小。只有我會想到，對於你們來說，考慮到您在選項、升級和設計上產生的利潤，這將對規格產品造成更大的阻力，因為您沒有得到那麼多，所以這只是時間的函數當你出售規格的時候，你仍然在建造過程的這個階段相當早地出售它們。所以你得到了更多的升級？

So let's talk about small because I don't want to mislead. The historic difference between to-be-built and spec is about 200 basis points. And that's about what we're back to right now. Through COVID, it probably flipped the other way.

所以讓我們談談小的，因為我不想誤導。待建和規格之間的歷史差異約為 200 個基點。這就是我們現在要回到的狀態。通過 COVID，它可能會以另一種方式翻轉。

The nuance is that 200 basis points is on a to-be-build sold today, and a spec-sold today. In reality, what runs through our income statement is a spec-sold today and a to-be-build sold yesterday.

細微差別是 200 個基點是在今天銷售的待建產品和今天銷售的規格產品上。實際上，貫穿我們損益表的是今天售出的規格房和昨天售出的待建房。

12 months ago.

12 個月前。

Yes.

是的。

More than yesterday.

比昨天還多。

Right.

正確的。

Right. So there's a big timing difference there.

正確的。所以那裡有很大的時間差異。

Correct.

正確的。

But that's what we're showing right now, Alan. And...

但這就是我們現在展示的，艾倫。和...

To clarify that on that though, Marty. So the 200 basis point spread today, given that timing nuance, if you were comparing apples-to-apples and homes-sold today, spec versus BTO, it sounds like it's greater than that.

不過，為了澄清這一點，馬蒂。所以今天 200 個基點的價差，考慮到時間上的細微差別，如果你比較今天的同類產品和房屋銷售，spec 與 BTO，聽起來比這更大。

200 basis points.

200個基點。

Got it.

知道了。

And remember, we don't sit on a lot of finished inventory that requires a lot of discounting. And as I went through that cadence of the example I gave of 10 out of 25 in a community or spec. There's a bunch that gets sold early enough that they can pick their finishes, which is one of the special sauces of Toll. It's one of our Toll advantages that you can go to these design studios and have added. And so that -- there's margin -- our design studios are running high 30s gross margin. And so even on some of those specs, there is the opportunity to drive higher margin because of the timing of when it is being sold.

請記住，我們不會坐擁大量需要大量折扣的成品庫存。當我經歷這個例子的節奏時，我在社區或規範中給出了 25 個中的 10 個。有一堆提早售出，他們可以挑選成品，這是 Toll 的特色調味料之一。您可以去這些設計工作室並添加，這是我們 Toll 的優勢之一。因此——有利潤——我們的設計工作室的毛利率高達 30 多歲。因此，即使在其中一些規格上，也有機會提高利潤率，因為它的銷售時間。

And our specs have a lot of designer-appointed features, a lot of options in them already.

我們的規格有很多設計師指定的功能，其中已經有很多選項。

Right.

正確的。

They are in the price.

他們在價格中。

Our designers and our national decorators that decorate our beautiful models they get involved in the finishes that go into specs when Toll is picking those finishes because the house is progressing further along before it's being sold. So they naturally have some margin built into what we have picked.

我們的設計師和我們的國家裝潢師裝飾我們美麗的模型，他們參與了當 Toll 挑選這些飾面時進入規格的飾面，因為房子在出售之前正在進一步發展。因此，他們自然會在我們選擇的內容中內置一些保證金。

Alan, for the deliveries this quarter, our option upgrades, which includes lot premiums, were $212,000. And remember, 25% of those deliveries were specs.

艾倫，對於本季度的交付，我們的期權升級（包括批次溢價）為 212,000 美元。請記住，這些交付中有 25% 是規格。

And our next question comes from Mike Dahl from RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Mike Dahl。

Just a couple of follow-ups here. Back on the price increases on the $25,000. Is that kind of a gross base price number? Is it net inclusive of incentives? And can you just help us understand of that $25,000, if it is kind of all in what the split is in terms of rolling back incentives versus true base price increases?

這裡只是一些後續行動。回到 25,000 美元的價格上漲。那是一種總基價數字嗎？它是否包含激勵措施？你能幫我們理解這 25,000 美元嗎，如果它在回滾激勵與真正的基本價格上漲方面的分歧是什麼？

So Mike, it's net. So it's the combination of price increases and drops in incentives, and I would say it's probably half price increases and half incentives. It just depends upon the community and the amount of demand. We love raising price because you can put that price sheet in front of the next buyer and say, this was last week's price, this is this week's price, and the boss just told me, I may have a new sheet next week. Incentive is softer. Incentive is more cautious, of course, because once the price sheet goes up, we're not taking it backwards. But I think it's probably half and half, but that number -- that $25,000 is net.

所以邁克，它是淨的。所以這是價格上漲和激勵措施下降的結合，我想說這可能是一半的價格上漲和一半的激勵措施。這僅取決於社區和需求量。我們喜歡提價，因為你可以把價目表放在下一個買家面前說，這是上週的價格，這是本週的價格，老闆剛剛告訴我，下週我可能會有一張新的價單。激勵更柔和。當然，激勵措施更為謹慎，因為一旦價格表上漲，我們就不會倒退。但我認為這可能是一半，但這個數字——25,000 美元是淨額。

Okay. Yes, makes sense. And my second question, Doug, the idea of kind of the tightness in existing homes. It's obviously a huge thematic right now. You guys are primarily a builder that serves buyer that already has an existing house and you're seeing strong demand. So by definition, your buyers are making the choice to leave existing homes and trade into your homes and probably giving up low-rate mortgages, consensus right now is everyone is kind of opt in, but you're seeing every builder who's move up or higher still seeing these buyers come to their communities. You guys may be a little bit different given your cash buyer and some of the age targeted, but can you maybe just articulate that a little bit better in terms of what you think is driving that decision to -- why you're seeing the strength in demand if what you're also saying the existing home tightness is kind of true in terms of people not wanting to give up those rates.

好的。是的，有道理。我的第二個問題，道格，現有房屋的密封性。這顯然是一個巨大的主題。你們主要是為已經擁有現有房屋的買家提供服務的建築商，並且您看到了強勁的需求。因此，根據定義，您的買家正在選擇離開現有房屋並換成您的房屋，並且可能放棄低利率抵押貸款，現在的共識是每個人都選擇加入，但您看到每個建築商都在升遷或更好的是看到這些買家來到他們的社區。考慮到您的現金購買者和一些目標年齡，你們可能會有點不同，但您能否就您認為推動該決定的因素更好地闡明這一點 - 為什麼您看到了力量如果您還說現有的房屋緊俏對於不想放棄這些利率的人們來說是真實的，那麼需求量很大。

Sure. You got a number of factors that are at work here. Let's not forget, 15 years of serious imbalance between homes built and demand population growth, that is in play. Our buyers have equity in their homes. In fact, with a tight resale market, even at a 6.5%, 7% rate a lot of these homes are selling at or above asking price because there's nothing out there.

當然。這裡有許多因素在起作用。我們不要忘記，15 年來房屋建造與需求人口增長之間的嚴重失衡正在發揮作用。我們的買家擁有自己房屋的產權。事實上，在轉售市場吃緊的情況下，即使是 6.5%、7% 的利率，許多這些房屋的售價也等於或高於要價，因為那裡什麼都沒有。

So when they do sell their house, they're confident they're going to have even more equity than you would normally think in this kind of rate environment. They're wealthier. They're a move-up buyer that has had success in life, but most importantly, there's still buyers out there that want to move up with their life. They want to move the kids to the better school district. They want the more prestigious town. They want the bigger home, they want Toll Brothers, frankly.

因此，當他們賣掉自己的房子時，他們相信在這種利率環境下，他們將擁有比你通常想像的更多的資產。他們更富有。他們是一個在生活中取得成功的升級買家，但最重要的是，仍然有買家想要升級他們的生活。他們想把孩子們搬到更好的學區。他們想要更有聲望的城鎮。坦率地說，他們想要更大的家，他們想要 Toll Brothers。

We're really good at what we do. Our communities are really special. We build plus or minus 10,000 houses a year. And so even though rates are higher, there's an affordability issue. There are still a lot of buyers out there that want to move up, that have waited long enough, and they see our offering, and yes, it's more expensive than it was because rates have gone up, but it is time to move on with their life. This is not a financial decision. Does finances play into it? Of course, it does. But this is a family decision. This is a lifestyle decision, and we're it, people aspire to be in our communities, and that's what we're offering. And we're seeing great results because of it.

我們真的很擅長我們的工作。我們的社區真的很特別。我們每年建造正負 10,000 棟房屋。因此，即使利率更高，也存在負擔能力問題。仍然有很多買家想要升級，他們已經等待了足夠長的時間，他們看到了我們的產品，是的，它比以前貴了，因為利率上漲了，但現在是時候繼續前進了他們的生活。這不是財務決定。財務有影響嗎？當然可以。但這是一個家庭決定。這是一種生活方式的決定，我們就是這樣，人們渴望加入我們的社區，這就是我們所提供的。因此，我們看到了很好的結果。

Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we'll turn the floor back over to management for any closing remarks.

女士們，先生們，此時，我們將把發言權交還給管理層，聽取任何結束語。

Thank you, Jamie. Thanks, everyone. We appreciate all the great questions and your interest and your support. And we hope you have a wonderful, wonderful summer, and we will see you soon. Take care.

謝謝你，傑米。感謝大家。我們感謝所有重要的問題以及您的興趣和支持。我們希望你有一個美好的夏天，我們很快就會見到你。小心。

And ladies and gentlemen, with that, we'll conclude today's conference call and presentation. We thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

女士們，先生們，我們將結束今天的電話會議和演講。我們感謝您的加入。您現在可以斷開線路。