托爾兄弟 (TOL) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Toll Brothers Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) The company is planning to end the call at 9:30 when the market opens. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Douglas Yearley, CEO. Please go ahead.

早上好，歡迎來到 Toll Brothers 第四季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）該公司計劃在市場開盤時的 9:30 結束通話。 （操作員說明）請注意正在記錄此事件。我現在想將會議轉交給首席執行官道格拉斯·耶利 (Douglas Yearley)。請繼續。

Thank you, Jason. Good morning. Welcome, and thank you all for joining us. Before I begin, I ask you to read our statement on forward-looking information in our earnings release of last night and on our website. I caution you that many statements on this call are forward-looking based on assumptions about the economy, world events, housing and financial markets, interest rates, the availability of labor and materials, inflation and many other factors beyond our control that could significantly affect future results. With me today are Marty Connor, Chief Financial Officer; Rob Parahus, President and Chief Operating Officer; Fred Cooper, Senior VP of Finance and Investor Relations; Wendy Marlett, Chief Marketing Officer; and Gregg Ziegler, Senior VP and Treasurer. One person who is not with us today is Bob Toll. Bob passed away in early October at the age of 81 and this is the first time in the 56 years since Toll Brothers was founded back in 1967 that we look to a new year without him.

謝謝你，傑森。早上好。歡迎，並感謝大家加入我們。在我開始之前，我請您閱讀我們在昨晚發布的財報和我們網站上關於前瞻性信息的聲明。我提醒您，本次電話會議的許多陳述都是前瞻性的，基於對經濟、世界大事、住房和金融市場、利率、勞動力和材料的可用性、通貨膨脹以及我們無法控制的許多其他因素的假設，這些因素可能會顯著影響未來的結果。今天和我在一起的是首席財務官 Marty Connor； Rob Parahus，總裁兼首席運營官； Fred Cooper，財務和投資者關係高級副總裁；首席營銷官 Wendy Marlett；高級副總裁兼財務主管 Gregg Ziegler。今天沒有和我們在一起的人是 Bob Toll。 Bob 於 10 月初去世，享年 81 歲，這是自 Toll Brothers 於 1967 年成立以來 56 年來我們首次迎來沒有他的新年。

About 500 of us gathered in November to honor Bob at our headquarters with thousands more watching on Zoom. The event was attended by national business and political leaders and by the first subcontractors who worked with Bob in the 1960s, '70s and '80s. Friends from the Philadelphia area, he had known since childhood attended along with dozens of his family members. It was a fitting tribute to a one-of-a-kind leader and a man who helped shape this industry for decades. Although he is no longer with us, Toll Brothers will always be Bob's company. We miss him very much.

11 月，我們約有 500 人聚集在我們的總部，向 Bob 致敬，還有數千人在 Zoom 上觀看。國家商業和政治領袖以及在 1960 年代、70 年代和 80 年代與 Bob 合作的第一批分包商參加了此次活動。來自費城地區的朋友，他從小就認識，和他的幾十個家人一起參加。這是對一位獨一無二的領導者和一位幾十年來幫助塑造這個行業的人的恰當致敬。雖然他不再和我們在一起，但 Toll Brothers 將永遠是 Bob 的公司。我們非常想念他。

Turning to the business at hand. As Bob would assist I'm pleased with our performance this year and extremely proud of the entire Toll Brothers team. In a year filled with supply chain disruptions, labor shortages, permitting delays, inflation, increasing mortgage rates and many other operational challenges, we delivered over 10,500 homes, the most in our history, and grew homebuilding revenues by over 15% to $9.7 billion. In the fourth quarter, we exceeded the midpoint of our deliveries and revenue guidance by 365 homes and $368 million, respectively, as we focus on converting our backlog as efficiently as possible. Our fourth quarter adjusted gross margin of 29%, a 310 basis point increase compared to last year, and we met our full year guidance of 27.5%, which was a 250 basis point improvement over fiscal 2021.

轉向手頭的業務。作為 Bob 的協助，我對我們今年的表現感到滿意，並為整個 Toll Brothers 團隊感到非常自豪。在充滿供應鏈中斷、勞動力短缺、許可延誤、通貨膨脹、抵押貸款利率上升和許多其他運營挑戰的一年中，我們交付了 10,500 多套房屋，這是我們歷史上最多的，房屋建築收入增長了 15% 以上，達到 97 億美元。在第四季度，由於我們專注於盡可能高效地轉換積壓訂單，我們分別超過交付和收入指導的中點 365 套和 3.68 億美元。我們第四季度調整後的毛利率為 29%，比去年增長 310 個基點，我們達到了 27.5% 的全年目標，比 2021 財年提高了 250 個基點。

We reduced SG&A expense as a percentage of revenue by 110 basis points in the fourth quarter and 80 basis points for the full year. Before taxes, we earned $1.7 billion in fiscal 2022. Net income was a record $1.3 billion or $10.90 per share diluted resulting in a return on beginning equity of 24.3%, a 720 basis point increase over fiscal year 2021. At fiscal year-end, our book value per share stood at $54.79 and our net debt-to-capital ratio was 23.4%. While we achieved record results in fiscal 2022, we are faced with a challenging market, primarily due to the dramatic increase in mortgage rates since March. Our net signed contracts were down 60% in units and 56% in dollars in the fourth quarter with no discernible change nearly halfway through our first quarter of '23. However, both web and foot traffic were only down 15% in Q4, suggesting that while many potential buyers are on the sidelines, they remain interested and may just be waiting for more clarity on the direction of mortgage rates and the overall economy before they transact.

我們在第四季度將 SG&A 費用佔收入的百分比降低了 110 個基點，全年降低了 80 個基點。稅前，我們在 2022 財年的收入為 17 億美元。淨收入達到創紀錄的 13 億美元或每股攤薄收益 10.90 美元，期初股本回報率為 24.3%，比 2021 財年增加 720 個基點。在財年末，我們的每股賬面價值為 54.79 美元，我們的淨債務資本比率為 23.4%。雖然我們在 2022 財年取得了創紀錄的業績，但我們面臨著充滿挑戰的市場，這主要是由於自 3 月以來抵押貸款利率急劇上升。第四季度，我們的淨簽約合同數量下降了 60%，美元下降了 56%，在我們 23 年第一季度的近一半時間裡沒有明顯的變化。然而，網絡和人流量在第四季度僅下降了 15%，這表明儘管許多潛在買家處於觀望狀態，但他們仍然感興趣，可能只是在等待抵押貸款利率和整體經濟的方向更加明朗後再進行交易.

As we navigate this market, we are strategically balancing the delivery of our large high-margin backlog in fiscal year 2023 which is down just 7% in value from year-end 2021 with the generation of new sales for future deliveries. We continue to assess and adjust where necessary product offerings, price and incentive levels in each of our communities, taking into account local market dynamics, including elasticity of demand. The size of each community's backlog and the depth and quality of our landholdings in the market. We intend to continue making appropriate adjustments as fiscal year 2023 progresses. Fortunately, because of the size of our backlog and the strength of our projected '23 earnings, we are able to look beyond the immediate slowdown in demand and focus on positioning the company for success in fiscal year 2024.

在我們探索這個市場的過程中，我們正在戰略性地平衡我們在 2023 財年交付的大量高利潤積壓訂單（其價值僅比 2021 年底下降 7%）與為未來交付創造新的銷售額。我們繼續在必要時評估和調整我們每個社區的產品供應、價格和激勵水平，同時考慮當地市場動態，包括需求彈性。每個社區積壓的規模以及我們在市場上持有的土地的深度和質量。我們打算隨著 2023 財年的進展繼續進行適當的調整。幸運的是，由於我們積壓的規模和我們預計的 23 年收益強勁，我們能夠超越眼前的需求放緩，專注於為公司在 2024 財年取得成功做好準備。

Let me take a moment to discuss our projected '23 results. With the year-end backlog of nearly 8,100 homes valued at $8.9 billion, and with a midpoint of 8,500 homes projected to be delivered, fiscal '23 is setting up to be another solid, high-margin year. Our backlog is supported by substantial nonrefundable down payments averaging about $83,000 per home. Through our build-to-order model, our buyers choose their specific home site, structural options and design studio finishes that match their lifestyles and their tastes. As they customize their homes, they become both financially and emotionally invested. Additionally, with approximately 20% of our buyers paying all cash and the average LTV for those who obtained a mortgage at 71%, affordability is less of an issue for our buyers who tend to be wealthier with more disposable income. As a result, our backlog cancellation rate has been the lowest in the industry for decades, both through good and bad markets.

讓我花點時間討論一下我們預計的 23 年結果。由於年底積壓了近 8,100 套價值 89 億美元的房屋，預計交付的中點為 8,500 套房屋，因此 23 財年將成為又一個穩定的高利潤年。我們的積壓訂單得到大量不可退還的首付款的支持，平均每套房屋約 83,000 美元。通過我們的按訂單生產模式，我們的買家可以選擇符合他們的生活方式和品味的特定住所、結構選項和設計工作室飾面。當他們定制自己的家時，他們在經濟和情感上都投入了。此外，大約 20% 的購房者支付所有現金，而獲得抵押貸款的購房者的平均 LTV 為 71%，對於我們的購房者來說，負擔能力不是問題，因為他們往往更富有，可支配收入更多。因此，無論市場好壞，我們的積壓訂單取消率幾十年來一直是業內最低的。

During the fourth quarter, our cancellation rate as a percentage of backlog was 2.9%, just slightly above the average of 2.3% since 2010. I want to emphasize that the right metric to focus on for our business is cancellations as a percentage of backlog. Cancellations as a percentage of current quarter sales is simply not as meaningful for a build-to-order company with a substantial backlog. The question should always be, what percentage of the homes that have been sold and are being built or canceling. For us, that number has consistently been the lowest in the industry. Based on the strength of our backlog and including estimates for increased cancellations and incentivizing, we are projecting a fiscal 2023 adjusted gross margin of 27%. We expect to earn between $8 and $9 per share next year which would be our second best year ever and for our book value per share to increase to over $60 at fiscal year-end 2023.

在第四季度，我們的取消率佔積壓訂單的百分比為 2.9%，略高於 2010 年以來的平均水平 2.3%。我想強調的是，我們業務關注的正確指標是取消佔積壓訂單的百分比。對於擁有大量積壓訂單的按訂單生產公司而言，取消佔當前季度銷售額的百分比根本沒有意義。問題應該始終是，已售出和正在建造或取消的房屋的百分比。對我們來說，這個數字一直是業內最低的。根據我們積壓的實力，包括對取消和激勵增加的估計，我們預計 2023 財年調整後的毛利率為 27%。我們預計明年每股收益在 8 美元至 9 美元之間，這將是我們有史以來第二好的年度，並且我們的每股賬面價值將在 2023 財年末增加到 60 美元以上。

As I mentioned, because of our strong backlog and in an environment where potential buyers in many markets were on the sidelines, we chose not to aggressively chase the market down over the past 6 months. Also, because of our build-to-order model, we did not have to take dramatically lower prices to clear a large inventory of spec homes. Instead, we have taken a more patient and balanced approach.

正如我所提到的，由於我們積壓了大量訂單，而且在許多市場的潛在買家都持觀望態度的環境下，我們在過去 6 個月中選擇不積極追逐市場。此外，由於我們的按訂單生產模式，我們不必採取大幅降低的價格來清空大量規格房庫存。相反，我們採取了更加耐心和平衡的方法。

In recent quarters, our delivery times for to-be-built homes has been extended in some cases, up to 16 months, which was not acceptable to many buyers. Additionally, building costs have been elevated due to the spike in inflation over the past 2 years. In that environment, it did not make sense to aggressively drop prices. Thankfully, quota delivery times have started to come down as we work through our backlog and as trades free up capacity in this slower market. We are also beginning to see some building costs come down beyond just lumber, which continues to steadily drop. The opportunity to build faster and at a lower cost may be here. Extended delivery times for our to-be-built homes have also resulted in the market for our spec homes being stronger than normal. With elevated spec demand and as cycle times and costs come down, we plan to thoughtfully replenish our supply of specs in select markets to generate additional deliveries in late '23 and throughout 2024.

在最近幾個季度，我們對待建房屋的交付時間在某些情況下已延長至 16 個月，這對許多買家來說是無法接受的。此外，由於過去 2 年通貨膨脹率飆升，建築成本有所上升。在那種環境下，大幅降價是沒有意義的。值得慶幸的是，隨著我們處理積壓的訂單以及在這個放緩的市場中釋放產能，配額交付時間開始下降。我們也開始看到一些建築成本下降，而不僅僅是木材，木材成本繼續穩步下降。以更低的成本更快地構建的機會可能就在這裡。我們待建房屋的交付時間延長也導致我們的規格房屋市場比正常情況更強勁。隨著規格需求的增加以及週期時間和成本的下降，我們計劃深思熟慮地補充我們在特定市場的規格供應，以在 23 世紀末和整個 2024 年產生更多的交付。

Community count in '23 and '24 will also drive results. As part of our strategy, we are timing community openings to take advantage of better seasonal opportunities. We are positioning for the spring selling season, where there is typically more demand even in tougher times. We are going back to opening our new communities in perfect white glove condition with decorated model homes, reflecting the traditional way Toll has always done it. That did not occur as often during the market frenzy that followed the pandemic where we often opened early without roads or models. During COVID, you could sell out of the back of a station wagon with success. That is no longer the case.

23 年和 24 年的社區數量也將推動結果。作為我們戰略的一部分，我們正在安排社區開放時間，以利用更好的季節性機會。我們正在為春季銷售旺季做準備，即使在困難時期，通常也會有更多的需求。我們將重新開放我們的新社區，以完美的白手套條件和裝飾精美的樣板房，反映 Toll 一貫的傳統方式。在大流行之後的市場狂潮中，這種情況並不常見，我們經常在沒有道路或模型的情況下提前開放。在 COVID 期間，您可以成功地將旅行車的後座賣光。這已不再是這種情況。

As an industry, we probably will not have a better sense of the depth and length of this downturn until we are further into the spring selling season in March and April and hopefully, after the Federal Reserve's work is done. We recognize that if market conditions do not improve, we will need to be more aggressive with price reductions to rebuild our backlog and turn our inventory. And we'd rather be doing that when cycle times and building costs are coming down and when more of our backlog has delivered than 3 or 6 months ago.

作為一個行業，在我們進一步進入 3 月和 4 月的春季銷售旺季之前，我們可能不會更好地了解這次衰退的深度和持續時間，並且希望在美聯儲的工作完成之後。我們認識到，如果市場狀況沒有改善，我們將需要更積極地降價，以重建我們的積壓訂單並轉變我們的庫存。我們寧願在周期時間和建築成本下降時以及我們的積壓訂單比 3 或 6 個月前交付更多時這樣做。

Turning to our land strategy. We continue to assess all transactions, whether they involve new land opportunities or takedowns under existing options using our rigorous underwriting standards that are focused on both margins and returns. Our existing attractive land portfolio allows us to be highly selective in this process and to walk away from or renegotiate deals that no longer meet our higher thresholds. Over the past 3 quarters, we have walked away from over 9,000 of our option lots and many additional deals have been deferred or restructured. This cost us $12 million in forfeited options and sunk development costs, $6 million of which was in the fourth quarter. At fiscal year-end, we owned approximately 37,700 lots and controlled about 38,300 through options. This is a 6,000 lot or 7.5% reduction in total lots in the fourth quarter alone. We continue to target an overall mix of 60% option and 40% owned over the longer term.

轉向我們的土地戰略。我們繼續使用我們專注於利潤和回報的嚴格承保標準評估所有交易，無論它們涉及新的土地機會還是現有選項下的拆除。我們現有的有吸引力的土地組合使我們能夠在此過程中高度選擇性，並放棄或重新談判不再符合我們更高門檻的交易。在過去的 3 個季度中，我們放棄了 9,000 多筆期權，許多額外的交易被推遲或重組。這使我們損失了 1200 萬美元的期權和沈沒開發成本，其中 600 萬美元發生在第四季度。截至財年末，我們擁有約 37,700 塊地塊，並通過期權控制約 38,300 塊地塊。僅第四季度就減少了 6,000 手，總手數減少了 7.5%。我們繼續以 60% 的期權和 40% 的長期所有權的總體組合為目標。

Excluding the loss allocated to our backlog, 56% of total lots were controlled through options. Our existing land should allow us to grow community count 10% in fiscal year 2023. We also control enough land for further community count growth in 2024. As a reminder, we acquired much of the land for our planned fiscal year '23 community openings prior to 2021 before land prices started inflating. In fiscal '22, we spent approximately $2.2 billion on land acquisition and development. In light of current market conditions, we expect to significantly reduce the spend in '23, which should free up capital for other uses. With over $3 billion of liquidity at fiscal year-end and substantial operating cash flow projected in fiscal year 2023, we are in a strong position to pay down debt buy back stock and opportunistically acquire control of land that may become more attractively priced, all while maintaining a conservative and low leverage balance sheet.

排除分配給我們積壓訂單的損失，總手數的 56% 是通過期權控制的。我們現有的土地應該能讓我們在 2023 財年增加 10% 的社區數量。我們還控制了足夠的土地，以便在 2024 年進一步增加社區數量。提醒一下，我們在計劃的 23 財年社區開放之前收購了大部分土地到 2021 年土地價格開始上漲之前。在 22 財年，我們在土地收購和開發上花費了大約 22 億美元。鑑於當前的市場狀況，我們預計將大幅減少 23 年的支出，這應該可以騰出資金用於其他用途。憑藉超過 30 億美元的財政年度流動性和預計 2023 財政年度的大量運營現金流，我們有能力償還債務回購股票並抓住機會獲得對價格可能更具吸引力的土地的控制權，同時維持保守和低杠桿的資產負債表。

In the fourth quarter, we repurchased $159 million of our common stock. Since the beginning of the fiscal year, we have repurchased approximately $543 million or 9% of our outstanding share count at the end of fiscal year 2021. We have also paid approximately $90 million in dividends in '22 and we retired $410 million of long-term debt. We expect debt reduction and share repurchases to remain an important part of our capital allocation priorities for the foreseeable future. We are planning to retire $400 million of our 4.375% bonds in mid-January when they become callable at par and we are targeting $100 million of share repurchases per quarter in fiscal year 2023. With that, I'll turn it over to Marty.

第四季度，我們回購了 1.59 億美元的普通股。自本財年開始以來，我們已在 2021 財年末回購了約 5.43 億美元，即我們已發行股票數量的 9%。我們還在 22 年支付了約 9000 萬美元的股息，並收回了 4.1 億美元的長期-定期債務。我們預計在可預見的未來，債務削減和股票回購仍將是我們資本配置優先事項的重要組成部分。我們計劃在 1 月中旬贖回 4.375% 債券中的 4 億美元，屆時它們可以按面值贖回，我們的目標是在 2023 財年每季度回購 1 億美元的股票。有了這個，我將把它交給馬蒂。

Thanks, Doug. As you mentioned, we are pleased with our fourth quarter and full year results. Our deliveries, revenue, net income and earnings per share were all quarterly and full year records. We noticed a few analysts wrote overnight about our drop in average price per home in new contracts quarter-over-quarter. We want to point out that this is not reflective of an actual price drop, but rather the elevated average price from Q3 associated with our calculation methodology, which we described in detail last quarter.

謝謝，道格。正如您所提到的，我們對第四季度和全年的業績感到滿意。我們的交付量、收入、淨收入和每股收益均創下季度和全年記錄。我們注意到一些分析師在一夜之間寫道，我們的新合同每套房屋平均價格環比下降。我們要指出的是，這並不是實際價格下跌的反映，而是與我們的計算方法相關的第三季度平均價格上漲，我們在上個季度對此進行了詳細描述。

Turning to fiscal year '22's fourth quarter. We delivered 3,765 homes and generated revenues of $3.6 billion, which were up 12.7% in homes and 21.4% in dollars from a year ago. The average price of homes delivered was $951,000. Fourth quarter net income was $640.5 million or $5.63 per share diluted compared to $374.3 million and $3.02 per share diluted a year ago. Included in net income was an after-tax net benefit of approximately $105 million related to the settlement of a legal claim over a 2015 gas leak in California, including an offset for the $10 million we used to fund our new foundation. Adjusting for this net benefit, net income was $535 million or $4.71 per share, up 43% compared to last year's fourth quarter and still an all-time quarterly earnings record.

轉向 22 財年第四季度。我們交付了 3,765 套房屋，創造了 36 億美元的收入，與一年前相比，房屋增長了 12.7%，美元增長了 21.4%。交付房屋的平均價格為 951,000 美元。第四季度淨收入為 6.405 億美元或每股攤薄收益 5.63 美元，而去年同期為 3.743 億美元和每股攤薄收益 3.02 美元。淨收入中包括約 1.05 億美元的稅後淨收益，這與解決 2015 年加利福尼亞州天然氣洩漏的法律索賠有關，其中包括我們用於資助新基金會的 1000 萬美元的抵消。調整這一淨收益後，淨收入為 5.35 億美元或每股 4.71 美元，比去年第四季度增長 43%，仍然是歷史季度收益記錄。

For the full year, we earned $10.90 per share on a GAAP basis. Excluding the net benefits associated with the settlement and contribution, we earned $10 per share even. As Doug mentioned, our fourth quarter adjusted gross margin was 29%, up 310 basis points compared to 25.9% in the fourth quarter of 2021. SG&A as a percentage of revenues was 7.7% in the quarter compared to 8.8% in the same quarter 1 year ago. The year-over-year reduction in SG&A percentage is primarily related to the leverage from increased revenues, but also to tighter cost controls as total SG&A expense only grew $6 million on $630 million in additional revenue excluding the $10 million contribution we made to our charitable bond -- charitable foundation with proceeds of the legal settlement.

按 GAAP 計算，全年每股收益為 10.90 美元。排除與和解和捐款相關的淨收益，我們甚至每股賺取 10 美元。正如 Doug 所提到的，我們第四季度調整後的毛利率為 29%，與 2021 年第四季度的 25.9% 相比上升了 310 個基點。本季度 SG&A 佔收入的百分比為 7.7%，而同一季度為 8.8%1一年前。 SG&A 百分比的同比下降主要與收入增加的槓桿作用有關，但也與更嚴格的成本控制有關，因為 SG&A 總費用僅增長 600 萬美元，額外收入為 6.3 億美元，不包括我們為慈善事業做出的 1000 萬美元捐款債券——慈善基金會用合法結算的收益。

Joint venture, land sales and other income was $152.5 million during the fourth quarter, which includes an approximately $141 million benefit related to the legal settlement. That compares to $63.5 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2021. Excluding the settlement, we exceeded our guidance on this line item by approximately $12 million.

第四季度合資企業、土地銷售和其他收入為 1.525 億美元，其中包括與法律和解相關的約 1.41 億美元收益。相比之下，2021 財年第四季度為 6350 萬美元。不包括和解，我們超出了我們對該項目的指導約 1200 萬美元。

Write-offs totaled $22 million in the quarter. Approximately $6 million of this amount was related to walk away and predevelopment costs on option land that we decided not to pursue. The remainder was associated with anticipated losses on the pending sales of two wholly owned city living land partials that we have decided not to build. Instead, we will sell. Both are under contract and in due diligence with buyers. We did not have any impairments on any of our traditional homebuilding land or operating communities.

本季度註銷總額為 2200 萬美元。其中大約 600 萬美元與我們決定不追求的可選土地的離開和開發前成本有關。其餘部分與我們決定不建設的兩塊全資城市生活用地部分待售的預期損失有關。相反，我們將出售。兩者都與買家簽訂合同並進行盡職調查。我們的任何傳統住宅建築用地或運營社區都沒有受到任何損害。

We continued to generate strong cash flow this year with $978 million of cash flow from operations. We ended the fiscal year with over $3 billion of liquidity, including $1.3 billion of cash and $1.8 billion available under our revolving bank credit facility. In fiscal year 2022, we invested $2.2 billion in land acquisition and land development and our spend dropped in each quarter as the year progressed. We also returned $633 million to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends and we reduced debt by approximately $410 million. Our net debt-to-capital ratio was 23.4% at fiscal year-end. As Doug mentioned, we are planning to further reduce our debt by repaying $400 million of senior notes due in April but callable at par in mid-January. After we repay these notes, we will have no significant maturities of our long-term debt until fiscal 2026.

今年我們繼續產生強勁的現金流，運營現金流為 9.78 億美元。我們在本財政年度結束時擁有超過 30 億美元的流動資金，其中包括 13 億美元的現金和 18 億美元的循環銀行信貸額度。在 2022 財年，我們在土地收購和土地開發方面投資了 22 億美元，隨著時間的推移，我們的支出在每個季度都在下降。我們還通過股票回購和派息向股東返還了 6.33 億美元，我們還減少了約 4.1 億美元的債務。截至財年末，我們的淨債務資本比率為 23.4%。正如 Doug 所提到的，我們計劃通過償還 4 億美元的 4 億美元優先票據來進一步減少債務，但可在 1 月中旬按面值贖回。在我們償還這些票據後，我們的長期債務在 2026 財年之前不會到期。

During the quarter, we transferred two New York city -- New York market City Living projects into joint ventures as part of our capital efficiency initiatives. Results from our former City Living segment are now reported in the regions in which the projects are located, primarily the North for this and all future reporting periods. Prior periods reported in our earnings release have been reclassified and additional periods will be reclassified in our upcoming 10-K.

在本季度，我們將兩個紐約市 - 紐約市場城市生活項目轉移到合資企業中，作為我們資本效率計劃的一部分。我們以前的城市生活部門的結果現在在項目所在的地區報告，主要是在本報告期和所有未來報告期的北部。我們的收益發布中報告的先前期間已經重新分類，其他期間將在我們即將發布的 10-K 中重新分類。

Our forward guidance is subject to the usual caveats regarding forward-looking information. As Doug mentioned, the 8,098 homes in backlog at fiscal year-end gives us good visibility into next year. The contracts in backlog are supported by sizable nonrefundable down payments, additional promissory notes, and as Doug laid out not to be minimized, the emotional attachment our buyers have to their new, highly personalized homes. However, given the unpredictability of the current demand environment, the volatility in mortgage rates, inflationary pressures and unclear global and macroeconomic conditions, I want to stress that our forward-looking projections, especially for the full year are subject to greater uncertainty than normal.

我們的前瞻性指導受有關前瞻性信息的通常警告的約束。正如 Doug 所提到的，財政年度末積壓的 8,098 套房屋讓我們對明年有了很好的了解。積壓的合同得到了可觀的不可退還的首付款、額外的期票的支持，而且正如 Doug 所說的那樣，我們的買家對他們高度個性化的新家的情感依戀不容小覷。然而，鑑於當前需求環境的不可預測性、抵押貸款利率的波動、通脹壓力以及不明朗的全球和宏觀經濟狀況，我想強調，我們的前瞻性預測，尤其是全年的預測，比正常情況下具有更大的不確定性。

With that said, we are projecting fiscal year 2023 1st quarter deliveries of approximately 1,750 to 1,850 homes with an average delivery price of between $950,000 and $970,000. Consistent with normal seasonal patterns, first quarter deliveries are expected to be the low point of the year, with deliveries for the full fiscal year weighted to the second half.

話雖如此，我們預計 2023 財年第一季度將交付約 1,750 至 1,850 套房屋，平均交付價格在 950,000 美元至 970,000 美元之間。與正常的季節性模式一致，預計第一季度的交付量將是今年的最低點，整個財政年度的交付量將集中在下半年。

For full fiscal year 2023, we are projecting new home deliveries of between 8,000 and 9,000 homes with an average price between $965,000 and $985,000. We expect our adjusted gross margin in the first quarter of fiscal year 2023 and for the full year to be approximately 27%. We expect interest and cost of sales to be approximately 1.6% in the first quarter and 1.5% for the full year. This would represent a 20 basis point reduction in interest expense in cost of sales year-over-year as our leverage continues to decline. We project first quarter SG&A as a percentage of home sales revenues to be approximately 13.5% versus 13.4% 1 year ago. Included in first quarter SG&A is about $12 million of our annual accelerated stock compensation expense that should not recur in the remainder of the year. It was approximately -- it was approximately $10 million last year.

對於整個 2023 財年，我們預計將交付 8,000 至 9,000 套新房，平均價格在 965,000 美元至 985,000 美元之間。我們預計 2023 財年第一季度和全年的調整後毛利率約為 27%。我們預計第一季度的利息和銷售成本約為 1.6%，全年約為 1.5%。隨著我們的槓桿率繼續下降，這意味著銷售成本中的利息支出同比減少 20 個基點。我們預計第一季度 SG&A 佔房屋銷售收入的百分比約為 13.5%，而一年前為 13.4%。第一季度的 SG&A 中包含我們年度加速股票補償費用中的約 1200 萬美元，這些費用不應在今年剩餘時間再次發生。大約是——去年大約是 1000 萬美元。

For the full year, we project SG&A as a percentage of home sales revenues to be approximately 11.3% and expect total dollar spend to be flat with 2022. Other income, income from unconsolidated entities and land sales gross profit is expected to be approximately $10 million in the first quarter and $125 million for the full year. Much of this full year income is projected from sales of our interest in certain stabilized apartment communities developed by Toll Brothers Apartment Living in joint venture with various partners. While the market for rental properties is currently being disrupted by the volatility in rates and economic uncertainty, we do project selling our interest in four of our joint ventures by the end of the fiscal year. We project the first quarter and full year tax rate of approximately 26%. Our weighted average share count is expected to be approximately 112.5 million for the first quarter and 110 million shares for the full 2023 year. This assumes we repurchased a targeted $100 million of common stock per quarter.

對於全年，我們預計 SG&A 佔房屋銷售收入的百分比約為 11.3%，預計美元總支出將與 2022 年持平。其他收入、未合併實體收入和土地銷售毛利預計約為 1000 萬美元第一季度和全年 1.25 億美元。這一全年收入的大部分預計來自我們對 Toll Brothers Apartment Living 與多家合作夥伴合資開發的某些穩定公寓社區的權益的銷售。雖然租賃物業市場目前正受到利率波動和經濟不確定性的干擾，但我們確實計劃在本財政年度結束前出售我們在四家合資企業中的權益。我們預計第一季度和全年的稅率約為 26%。我們的加權平均股數預計第一季度約為 1.125 億股，2023 年全年約為 1.10 億股。這是假設我們每季度回購 1 億美元的目標普通股。

Based on land we currently own or control we expect to grow community count by 10% by the end of fiscal year 2023. Putting this all together, that works out to be between $8 and $9 per share for the full year. which would move our book value to above $60 at fiscal year-end 2023. With that, I will turn the call back over to Doug.

根據我們目前擁有或控制的土地，我們預計到 2023 財年末社區數量將增加 10%。將所有這些加在一起，全年每股收益在 8 到 9 美元之間。這將使我們的賬面價值在 2023 財年末達到 60 美元以上。有了這個，我將把電話轉回給道格。

Thank you, Marty. We continue to believe that the long-term prospects for the housing market remain positive despite the recent market weakness. Demographic and migration trends continue in our favor. In addition, there continues to be a substantial shortage of homes in America as how the starts have not kept up with population growth for at least the past 15 years. We believe these fundamental drivers will support the housing market well into the future. Before I open the call to questions, I want to again thank the entire Toll Brothers team for another great year. We are now facing a tougher environment. But we've been through this before.

謝謝你，馬蒂。我們仍然相信，儘管近期市場疲軟，但房地產市場的長期前景依然樂觀。人口和移民趨勢繼續對我們有利。此外，至少在過去 15 年裡，美國的房屋開工率一直跟不上人口增長，因此房屋仍然嚴重短缺。我們相信這些基本驅動因素將在未來很好地支持房地產市場。在開始提問之前，我想再次感謝整個 Toll Brothers 團隊又一個偉大的一年。我們現在面臨更嚴峻的環境。但我們以前經歷過這個。

We are executing on the right strategy for our company, and I am confident that our experienced teams will once again rise to the challenge and deliver another solid year for Toll Brothers in fiscal 2023 and beyond. With that, let me open it up for questions. Jason, it's all yours.

我們正在為公司執行正確的戰略，我相信我們經驗豐富的團隊將再次迎接挑戰，並在 2023 財年及以後為 Toll Brothers 帶來又一個堅實的一年。有了這個，讓我打開它來提問。傑森，都是你的。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, the company is planning to end the call at 9:30 when the market opens. (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Michael Rehaut from JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）提醒一下，公司計劃在市場開盤時的 9:30 結束通話。 （操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Michael Rehaut。

First, I'd love to get your sense of current pricing. You guided for a 27% gross margin for fiscal '23, which was better than we were looking for and I think speaks to the strength of the backlog and your ability to maintain some margins in the backlog. Can you try and contrast that to current pricing and the amounts of discounts that you're currently offering or incentives, trying to think about real-time gross margins and pricing in today's backdrop?

首先，我很想了解您對當前定價的看法。您指導 23 財年的毛利率為 27%，這比我們預期的要好，我認為這說明了積壓訂單的實力以及您在積壓訂單中保持一定利潤的能力。您能否嘗試將其與當前定價和您當前提供的折扣金額或激勵措施進行對比，並嘗試考慮當今背景下的實時毛利率和定價？

Sure, Michael. So our guide is 27%. And I think Marty clearly laid out some caution we have in '23 because of the current environment. If you look on paper at those 8,100 homes in backlog, the margin is higher than 27%. But we are putting a cushion on that because we do know that there will be what we think is some modest elevation of cancellations.

當然，邁克爾。所以我們的指南是 27%。而且我認為，由於當前的環境，馬蒂清楚地提出了我們在 23 年的一些警告。如果您從紙面上看積壓的 8,100 套房屋，利潤率高於 27%。但我們對此有所緩衝，因為我們知道我們認為會有一些適度的取消。

We also have some additional homes that we need to sell to hit the $8,500 midpoint of the '23 delivery. And so we buffered it a bit when we've come in with our guide of 27% because of the current market conditions. In terms of where we are today, the average incentive nationwide on the next home sold is 8%. And remember, that's not coming off of 0. Even in the very good times through COVID, we always had an incentive in the range of 3% to 4% guys. Is that about right?

我們還需要出售一些額外的房屋，以達到 23 年交付的 8,500 美元中點。因此，由於當前的市場狀況，當我們以 27% 的指導價進入市場時，我們對其進行了一些緩衝。就我們今天的情況而言，全國對下一個售出房屋的平均激勵是 8%。請記住，這並不是零。即使在 COVID 的好時期，我們也總是有 3% 到 4% 的人有動力。這樣說對嗎？

$25,000.

25,000 美元。

$25,000.

25,000 美元。

Great. No, that's very helpful. I guess secondly, you noted the SG&A for fiscal '23 on a flat dollar spend, can you kind of walk through the puts and takes of that? And to the extent that revenues would be, let's say, less than expected. Where is your ability to flex there and conversely, if you're able to close more homes due to better cycle times, how should we think about the variable on the upside?

偉大的。不，這非常有幫助。我想其次，你注意到 23 財年的 SG&A 是固定的美元支出，你能說說看跌期權嗎？並且在某種程度上，比方說，收入低於預期。你在那裡靈活的能力在哪裡，相反，如果你能夠由於更好的周期時間而關閉更多的房屋，我們應該如何考慮上行變量？

Mike, it's good to hear from you. I think SG&A is a significant focus of ours. Unfortunately, as an operating entity, we are not immune to the effects of inflation. And so we're pretty proud that we're able to keep the number flat year-over-year. Now that is on a lower expected revenue basis. So every day, we're working towards some initiatives to try and evaluate headcount and deal with some of these inflationary pressures. Our personnel are down around 6% in the last 6 months. Our open positions are down significantly over that same period of time. So we are doing a nice job of holding the line on headcount.

邁克，很高興收到你的來信。我認為 SG&A 是我們的一個重要重點。不幸的是，作為一個經營實體，我們無法免受通貨膨脹的影響。因此，我們非常自豪能夠保持這一數字同比持平。現在這是在較低的預期收入基礎上。因此，我們每天都在努力採取一些舉措來嘗試評估員工人數並應對其中的一些通脹壓力。在過去的 6 個月裡，我們的人員減少了大約 6%。我們的未平倉頭寸在同一時期大幅下降。因此，我們在控制員工人數方面做得很好。

We are facing an environment where we may need to turn the dial up a little bit on marketing spend and outside broker commissions. So we are working diligently to keep SG&A as low as we possibly can. Obviously, more revenue will help and less revenue or hurt in terms of the leverage. We've given you our best estimate of what we think it will be for 2023.

我們正面臨這樣一種環境，我們可能需要在營銷支出和外部經紀人佣金方面稍微調高一點。因此，我們正在努力將 SG&A 保持在盡可能低的水平。顯然，就槓桿而言，更多的收入會有所幫助，而收入減少或受到傷害。我們已經為您提供了我們對 2023 年的最佳估計。

Our next question comes from Stephen Kim from Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Stephen Kim。

It was all super helpful, particularly the comment about the strategy around the spring selling season being a better time to get more aggressive on things. Just I guess, as a point of clarification, Bob Toll, I remember, talked about the spring selling season really begins in some places in January. And I guess I wanted to get some clarity on your incentive number there that you gave today about 8%. Obviously, I would assume that it's including everything, whether it be rate locks and rate buydowns. And so just if you could clarify, is there anything that would be decremental to your gross margin that you're doing in the negotiation with the buyer that's not in that 8%. And then your order ASP, I think you said last quarter, like-for-like was like $1.15 million on average or something like that or like up 7%. Just wondering if this quarter's reported order ASP, you think is pretty much like-for-like or if it's a different number.

這一切都非常有幫助，尤其是關於春季銷售旺季戰略的評論是更積極進取的更好時機。我想，為了澄清一點，我記得 Bob Toll 談到春季銷售旺季在某些地方確實從 1 月份開始。我想我想弄清楚你今天給出的大約 8% 的激勵數字。顯然，我會假設它包括一切，無論是利率鎖定還是利率回購。所以，如果你能澄清一下，在與買家的談判中，有沒有什麼會降低你的毛利率，但不在這 8% 之內。然後你的訂單平均售價，我想你上個季度說過，平均同比增長 7% 大約 115 萬美元或類似水平。只是想知道本季度報告的訂單 ASP 是否與您認為的相當，或者它是否是一個不同的數字。

So I'll answer the first part. And then Marty, you can jump into the second part. Stephen, the 8% is all inclusive of whether it be price drops, incentive increases or closing cost assistance or mortgage buydowns or anything that we can think of and that you can think of is included within that 8%.

所以我會回答第一部分。然後馬蒂，你可以跳到第二部分。斯蒂芬，這 8% 包括價格下降、激勵增加或關閉成本援助或抵押貸款買斷或我們能想到的任何你能想到的都包含在這 8% 中。

And yes, Bob, you said talked about Super Bowl Sunday to Easter or the Super Bowl now in February. So it's a few weeks before Super Bowl Sunday, and it generally extends through late April is the heart of the traditional new home selling season. And as I mentioned, even in tougher times, we always expect more homes sold during that period than other times of the year. And so I think we strategically have made a good decision to work hard on delivering our backlog and protect it to incentivize where there is elasticity where the market is responding to incentives.

是的，鮑勃，你說過談到週日到復活節的超級碗或現在二月份的超級碗。所以距離週日超級碗還有幾週時間，通常會持續到 4 月下旬，這是傳統的新房銷售旺季的核心。正如我所提到的，即使在困難時期，我們也總是預計在此期間售出的房屋數量會多於一年中的其他時間。因此，我認為我們在戰略上做出了一個很好的決定，努力交付我們的積壓工作並保護它，以激勵市場對激勵措施有彈性的地方。

But to really wait for delivery times to come down for building costs to start coming down and to focus on when it makes the most sense to be a bit more aggressive to go chase deals if we need to do that. And that is by each community, by each market and based, of course, upon the overall bigger macro market conditions and economies. And so that is the strategy in place. I also talked about layering in some additional spec build where appropriate in those markets that have better dynamics and to do that at a time when we can build those specs for a bit less to set up good results for 2024. Marty?

但要真正等待交貨時間下降，建築成本開始下降，並專注於如果我們需要這樣做，什麼時候更積極地去追逐交易是最有意義的。這是每個社區，每個市場，當然，基於整體更大的宏觀市場條件和經濟。這就是現有的戰略。我還談到了在那些具有更好動態的市場中適當地分層構建一些額外的規範，並且在我們可以以更少的成本構建這些規範以便為 2024 年取得良好結果的時候這樣做。馬蒂？

Yes. I think I'm going to default to it is a like-for-like analysis with the number you quoted of $1.150 million. But I would caution that like-for-like is very tough for us because we have differences in geographic mix quarter-over-quarter. And we have differences in our various segments of Aflux, active adult and luxury. So it says like-for-like as we ever get.

是的。我想我會默認這是一個類似的分析，你引用的數字是 115 萬美元。但我要提醒的是，對我們來說，同類產品非常困難，因為我們在地理組合上的季度差異。我們在 Aflux、活躍成人和奢侈品的各個細分市場中存在差異。所以它說的是我們所得到的。

Aflux would be affordable luxury.

Aflux 將是負擔得起的奢侈品。

Yes.

是的。

When you saw -- we're going to get that out -- I heard that yesterday, I'm not going for that one. When you sell home some $300,000 to $4 million, it's just quarter-to-quarter, there can just be such differences because of geographic mix and price point mix.

當你看到——我們要把它弄出來——我昨天聽說了，我不打算那樣做。當您以 300,000 美元到 400 萬美元的價格出售房屋時，這只是季度與季度之間的差異，因為地理組合和價格點組合可能會存在這種差異。

Great. Yes. No, I appreciate that. Second question I have relates to the impact of mortgage rates. And I know that you talked about the fact that your buyer is not as sensitive to mortgage rates in terms of affordability. And yet, your buyer is also fairly savvy. And mortgage rates right now are -- we just had it reported at 6.4%. I mean it's already down like 70 basis points or something like that in a very short period of time. The spreads are still super wide. I think it's entirely possible you could see a mortgage rate come down meaningfully in the next 6 months. And so my question is, if that happens, do you think your buyer would -- that you would see an improvement, a tangible palpable improvement in demand as your buyer opportunistically takes advantage of that? Or do you think your buyer is basically insensitive to rates regardless if they fall or rise -- relatively insensitive, sorry, I should say.

偉大的。是的。不，我很感激。我的第二個問題與抵押貸款利率的影響有關。而且我知道你談到了這樣一個事實，即你的買家在負擔能力方面對抵押貸款利率不那麼敏感。然而，您的買家也相當精明。現在的抵押貸款利率是——我們剛剛報導的是 6.4%。我的意思是它已經在很短的時間內下降了 70 個基點或類似的東西。點差仍然超大。我認為您完全有可能在未來 6 個月內看到抵押貸款利率大幅下降。所以我的問題是，如果發生這種情況，你認為你的買家會 - 當你的買家機會主義地利用它時，你會看到需求的改善，明顯的明顯改善嗎？或者你認為你的買家基本上對利率不敏感，不管利率是下降還是上升——相對不敏感，對不起，我應該說。

Okay. Yes. So I don't think our buyer is even relatively insensitive to rates. I think they're very smart. They're wealthy and they are definitely aware of and focused on rates. Back in August, when we were all together, I spoke of some green shoots because rates had broken below 6% and we were encouraged for a few weeks. And of course, that went away as rates went up into the low to mid-7s. And now they are in, call it, the mid-6s. And there are some very, very modest green shoots of the last few weeks as rates have come down, but I am not ready to get sucked back into the conversation I had with all of you in August when we felt better because it's just -- we had Thanksgiving in the middle of this, and it's just not enough time to understand if that move from 7.25% to 6.5% is enough to start triggering more demand. It's December, it's not the timing of the year to really comment on that and we got a bit burned by the comments that the industry made in August that didn't play out.

好的。是的。所以我不認為我們的買家對利率相對不敏感。我認為他們非常聰明。他們很富有，他們絕對了解並關注利率。回到 8 月，當我們在一起時，我談到了一些萌芽，因為利率已經跌破 6%，我們在幾週內受到鼓舞。當然，隨著利率上升到 7 的中低水平，這種情況就消失了。現在他們進入了 6 年代中期。隨著利率的下降，過去幾週出現了一些非常、非常溫和的複蘇跡象，但我還沒有準備好回到八月份與你們所有人的談話中，當時我們感覺好多了，因為它只是——我們在這中間度過了感恩節，現在還沒有足夠的時間來了解從 7.25% 到 6.5% 的變化是否足以開始引發更多需求。現在是 12 月，現在不是一年中真正對此發表評論的時間，我們對行業在 8 月份發表的評論沒有發揮作用感到有點惱火。

But longer term, if these rates can break through 6% and get into the 5s, I think we're really going to be on to something. And I think that applies to whether it be first time or whether it be the Toll Brothers buyer. Our buyers are definitely wealthier, they have more equity in their homes, if in fact, they have a home that they're going to be selling. There's more cash that they put up. There's lower leverage on the mortgage. And so we have a lot of good things going for us. But they are absolutely aware of and sensitive to where rates are moving.

但從長遠來看，如果這些利率能夠突破 6% 並進入 5s，我認為我們真的會有所作為。我認為這適用於是第一次還是 Toll Brothers 的買家。我們的買家肯定更富有，他們在自己的房屋中擁有更多的資產，如果事實上，他們有一個他們將要出售的房屋。他們投入了更多的現金。抵押貸款的槓桿率較低。因此，我們有很多美好的事情要做。但他們絕對清楚並敏感地了解利率的走勢。

Yes. That's what I think as well. Just as a clarification, though, can they lock the rate when they're buying like through the close?

是的。我也是這麼想的。不過，作為澄清，他們可以在收盤時鎖定利率嗎？

They can lock -- we can help them lock or they can lock a rate 1 year out, and that's why delivery times for us coming down is very helpful because when we were quoting 14, 16 months in some of these communities that were so backed up, it was very difficult to lock. They can let me explain when I say lock, they can cap a rate a year after, and it may flow down. They can lock a rate about 110 days before closing where they can definitively lock in a mortgage rate, but you can buy a cap as far as 1 year out.

他們可以鎖定——我們可以幫助他們鎖定，或者他們可以將利率鎖定 1 年，這就是為什麼我們降低交貨時間非常有幫助，因為當我們在其中一些社區中引用 14、16 個月時，這些社區得到瞭如此支持向上，很難鎖定。當我說鎖定時，他們可以讓我解釋，他們可以在一年後設定利率上限，並且可能會下降。他們可以在關閉前大約 110 天鎖定利率，在那裡他們可以最終鎖定抵押貸款利率，但您可以購買最長 1 年的上限。

It may not be very attractive from a pricing perspective to the consumer but it's available.

從定價的角度來看，它對消費者來說可能不是很有吸引力，但它是可用的。

But I do think if a buyer wants to buy a build-to-order home from Toll and it's a -- let's just say it's a 13-month delivery, and they can't do anything with it right now in terms of a lock. And let's say they have a home to sell. I think there may very well be some growing confidence over the next 3 to 6 months, that rates will be coming down when they can lock, call it, 7, 8, 9 months out. And as those rates come down, that will make it easier for them to sell their existing home and we'll give them a lower rate on the Toll home. And I think some people already feel that way. but I think that should grow as the Fed gets closer to being done with their business.

但我確實認為，如果買家想從 Toll 購買一套按訂單建造的房屋，而且它是——假設它是 13 個月的交貨期，而且他們現在不能對它做任何事情，就鎖而言.假設他們有房子要賣。我認為在接下來的 3 到 6 個月裡，人們可能會越來越有信心，當他們可以鎖定時，利率將會下降，稱之為 7、8、9 個月。隨著這些費率的下降，這將使他們更容易出售他們現有的房屋，我們將為他們提供較低的 Toll 房屋費率。我想有些人已經有這種感覺了。但我認為隨著美聯儲接近完成他們的業務，這種情況應該會增加。

Our next question comes from Alan Ratner from Zelman & Associates.

我們的下一個問題來自 Zelman & Associates 的 Alan Ratner。

Thanks for all the great detail so far. First question just on the margin guidance, and I certainly appreciate the disclaimer there about the unknown and the uncertainty I was just hoping to dig in a little bit more to the trajectory you guys have. Effectively, it sounds like it incorporates margins holding pretty flat through the year with the 1Q guide identical to the full year. Is there cost relief being assumed there that might be offsetting higher incentives and pricing pressure on specs as the year unfolds there? Is it mix driven? Why -- I'm just trying to think through why margins would hold stable for the year in an environment right now that seems like it's -- pricing is under pressure.

感謝您提供的所有詳細信息。第一個問題只是關於保證金指導，我當然很欣賞那里關於未知和不確定性的免責聲明，我只是希望能更深入地了解你們的軌跡。實際上，聽起來它包含了全年保持相當平穩的利潤率，而 1Q 指南與全年相同。隨著時間的推移，那裡是否假設成本降低可能會抵消更高的激勵措施和規格的定價壓力？它是混合驅動的嗎？為什麼——我只是想弄清楚為什麼在目前看來是這樣的環境中利潤率會在今年保持穩定——定價面臨壓力。

We haven't built in cost reductions in the backlog. We continue to maintain high, what we call, building cost reserves or contingencies in our underwriting. And as for Marty sequentially through the year...

我們沒有在積壓工作中降低成本。我們繼續保持高水平，即我們所說的，在我們的承保中建立成本準備金或突發事件。至於馬蒂，這一年依次......

I think the biggest factor in what would be perceived to be a declining margin environment that's offsetting that is the lumber pricing inherent in our deliveries as the year goes on. Lumber fell steadily over the last few quarters, and that will be reflective and supportive of a more flat margin for 2023.

我認為被認為是利潤率下降環境的最大因素抵消了這一點，因為隨著時間的推移，我們交付的木材定價是固有的。木材在過去幾個季度穩步下降，這將反映和支持 2023 年利潤率更加平穩。

You had that lumber -- just from the third quarter to the fourth quarter, lumber dropped $12,000 to $14,000 per house just in 1 quarter there.

你有那種木材——從第三季度到第四季度，僅在一個季度內，每棟房子的木材價格就下降了 12,000 美元到 14,000 美元。

Okay. so basically, to think about that incentive number you gave earlier at 8%. It's up probably 400 or 500 basis points from 9 months or so ago. A lot of that is being offset, at least as '23 progresses through lower lumber on a per loan basis.

好的。所以基本上，想想你之前給出的 8% 的激勵數字。與大約 9 個月前相比，它可能上漲了 400 或 500 個基點。其中很多正在被抵消，至少隨著 23 年通過減少每筆貸款的木材而取得進展。

I think if we need to point to one offsetting factor, it's the lumber.

我認為如果我們需要指出一個抵消因素，那就是木材。

We are feeling -- I talked about building costs beginning to come down and cycle times beginning to come down. The front-end trades, the excavator, the foundation and concrete, the framer window installation, siding, roofing, rough mechanical, electric plumbing, HVAC, everything you do before you insulate a home and button it up with drywall, those front-end trades are now feeling less action as there are less starts. And they're the ones coming forward now saying, "Hey, we have some capacity." And as soon as you hear the capacity word as a builder, you say, great, and here's the new price. And so there's negotiation occurring on the front end, and that will naturally move through to the back end as those finishing trades also feel less activity.

我們感覺——我談到建築成本開始下降，週期時間開始下降。前端行業、挖掘機、地基和混凝土、成框窗安裝、壁板、屋頂、粗機械、電力管道、暖通空調，在為房屋隔熱並用石膏板將其固定之前所做的一切，那些前端由於開始較少，交易現在感覺較少。他們現在站出來說，“嘿，我們有一些能力。”作為建造者，當您聽到容量這個詞時，您會說，太好了，這是新價格。因此，在前端進行談判，這自然會轉移到後端，因為那些完成的交易也感覺不太活躍。

Got it. That makes sense. Second question, this is just more of a strategic question or thought. You kind of maybe alluded to this a little bit, Doug. But I think it makes a lot of sense being willing to forego some sales in the near term with the backlog you have and kind of the seasonally slower time of the year. Just given your build-to-order model, though, how long are you willing to forgo sales or kind of give up some market share, recognizing it seems like you would be setting yourself up for a pretty big air pocket in '24 unless you're willing to meaningfully increase the mix of specs in your business in '24. Because if your build cycle, even if it improves to 12 months, you're not going to have an opportunity for a lot of sales unless you see a demand improvement through in the spring of next year. So how long are you willing to kind of give up that market share in the near term and maybe not be as aggressive on pricing? Or is the answer to that spec ship that you are willing to take higher?

知道了。那講得通。第二個問題，這更像是一個戰略問題或想法。道格，你可能稍微提到了這一點。但我認為，由於積壓的訂單和一年中季節性較慢的時間，願意在短期內放棄一些銷售是很有意義的。不過，只要考慮到您的按訂單生產模式，您願意放棄銷售或放棄一些市場份額多久，認識到您似乎會在 24 世紀為自己準備一個相當大的氣囊，除非您願意在 24 世紀有意義地增加您的業務的規格組合。因為如果你的構建週期，即使它提高到 12 個月，你也不會有大量銷售的機會，除非你在明年春天看到需求改善。那麼，您願意在短期內放棄該市場份額多長時間，並且可能不會在定價上那麼激進？還是您願意接受更高的規格船的答案？

Great question. Our head is not in the sand. I mentioned that we're very focused strategically on '24, and we will pull the levers necessary to have homes ready to be delivered in '24, which means we will increase spec build starting in the new year. That will be ready in early mid, end of '24. And it's been interesting, the last couple of quarters, while we're about 75% build-to-order, 25% spec, and the spec business for us has been better. It's been higher margin the client. One of the reasons is they can lock a rate for a quicker delivery, and they want a little more certainty around the finances associated with buying the home. So our spec business has done well, and we've had a bit better pricing power, which gives us confidence. We're not going 50-50 and maybe we get to 30-70. We'll have to see, but it's going to be based on certain markets and how those markets are doing and where the elasticity of demand has been.

很好的問題。我們的頭不在沙子裡。我提到我們在戰略上非常專注於 24 年，我們將採取必要的措施讓房屋在 24 年交付，這意味著我們將從新的一年開始增加規格建設。這將在 24 世紀末中期準備就緒。有趣的是，在過去的幾個季度裡，我們大約有 75% 按訂單生產，25% 的規格，而且規格業務對我們來說更好。客戶的利潤率更高。原因之一是他們可以鎖定利率以加快交付速度，並且他們希望在與購房相關的財務方面有更多的確定性。所以我們的規格業務做得很好，我們有更好的定價能力，這給了我們信心。我們不會達到 50-50，也許我們會達到 30-70。我們必須拭目以待，但這將取決於某些市場以及這些市場的表現以及需求彈性所在。

So we will continue to keep a close eye on market conditions and adapt accordingly. And if that means not just building more spec to set up those deliveries, but being a bit more aggressive on incentives, we're going to do that. We're not going to lose market share. We have the land to grow this company. We already mentioned 10% community count growth coming this year on the land we control, we have strategically delayed those openings, as I mentioned, so that they hit in a better part of the year, which is the spring season, and they hit, we're actively building models everywhere and holding off openings where in COVID, we would have opened them.

因此，我們將繼續密切關注市場狀況並做出相應調整。如果這意味著不僅要建立更多規範來設置這些交付，而且要在激勵措施上更加積極一點，我們就會這樣做。我們不會失去市場份額。我們有土地來發展這家公司。我們已經提到今年在我們控制的土地上將有 10% 的社區數量增長，正如我提到的，我們已經戰略性地推遲了這些開放時間，以便它們在一年中的大部分時間出現，也就是春季，它們出現了，我們正在各地積極構建模型，並在 COVID 中推遲開放，我們本可以開放它們。

We would have had what we call money shoes opening, where it's hard to get on the job site you got to work hard to buy a home. We're going to -- you're going to -- this is going to be Ritz-Carlton white glove, everything perfect, and we're going to do it at the right time of the year. So there's a lot of moving parts for us, but because of the landholdings and the ability to grow community count and our flexibility on both spec build and pricing to market where appropriate. I'm confident our strategy is in place to have a really good '24.

我們本來會有我們所說的金錢鞋開口，在那裡很難找到你必須努力工作才能買房的工作地點。我們要——你要——這將是麗思卡爾頓白手套，一切都很完美，我們將在一年中的正確時間做這件事。因此，我們有很多活動部件，但由於擁有土地和增加社區數量的能力，以及我們在適當的規格構建和市場定價方面的靈活性。我相信我們的戰略已經到位，可以擁有一個非常好的 24 年。

Our next question comes from Truman Patterson from Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Truman Patterson。

It's actually Paul Przybylski. I appreciate you guys giving the order incentives at 8%. I was wondering if you could combine that with your traditional market color and where incentives may be higher or lower than that average? And then also, if you could give us any color on your various business segments and how orders performed in the quarter.

實際上是 Paul Przybylski。感謝你們給予 8% 的訂單獎勵。我想知道你是否可以將其與你的傳統市場顏色結合起來，以及激勵可能高於或低於平均水平的地方？然後，如果你能告訴我們你的各個業務部門的任何顏色以及本季度訂單的執行情況。

Sure. Paul. Happy to do that. Interestingly, and it's the first time in some time, the East is better than the West in sales. We've talked about Smile States and everybody moving south and everybody moving west. And it's simply because at West, prices went up a lot more through COVID. And so you have markets like Boise and Phoenix as two examples out West and the Nevada markets of Reno and Vegas as examples where we had communities where prices were up over 40% through COVID and notwithstanding the long-term positive prospects for those markets because of affordability, job growth, sunshine, lifestyle, they as always happens in these cycles, the faster you go up the first you are to come down.

當然。保羅。很高興這樣做。有趣的是，這是一段時間以來第一次，東方的銷量好於西方。我們談到了微笑州和每個人都向南移動，每個人都向西移動。這僅僅是因為在西部，價格因 COVID 上漲了很多。因此，博伊西和菲尼克斯等市場是西部的兩個例子，內華達州的里諾和維加斯市場就是我們的社區，其中價格通過 COVID 上漲了 40% 以上，儘管這些市場的長期前景是積極的，因為負擔能力、工作增長、陽光、生活方式，它們總是在這些週期中發生，你上升得越快，你就越先下降。

And so the Western markets are softer. They have been slower. We have bigger backlogs out West because we were so hot out there through COVID. And so we're being a bit more protective of that backlog and a bit more careful to not chase those markets down lower which is necessary because of the inelasticity. So places like New Jersey, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Massachusetts, Michigan, Virginia and all of Florida right now are our best performers.

因此，西方市場較為疲軟。他們比較慢。我們在西部有更多的積壓，因為我們在那里通過 COVID 太熱了。因此，我們對積壓的訂單更加保護，並且更加小心，不要將這些市場追低，因為缺乏彈性，這是必要的。因此，像新澤西、費城、亞特蘭大、馬薩諸塞、密歇根、弗吉尼亞和佛羅里達州這樣的地方現在是我們表現最好的地方。

In terms of market segments, the active adult empty nester, which -- it's not just 55 and over, it's the boomers that are moving down. That has been our best segment for good reasons. They pay more cash. They're less impacted by rates because they have a lot more equity in the home they raise the kids in that they've owned for 20 or 30 years, and they're more affluent and they're willing to put either all or a lot more cash up and have lower mortgages -- the softest -- and the other three segments, which -- the other two segments, which would be affordable luxury and move-up luxury are running about the same and City Living is doing the best, which is right now, New York only. We have two buildings, one in Manhattan and one in Jersey City that are crushing it in terms of sale.

就細分市場而言，活躍的成年空巢老人——不僅僅是 55 歲及以上，而且正在下降的是嬰兒潮一代。有充分的理由，這是我們最好的部分。他們支付更多的現金。他們受利率的影響較小，因為他們在撫養孩子的家中擁有更多資產，因為他們已經擁有 20 或 30 年，而且他們更富裕，他們願意全部或部分投入更多的現金和較低的抵押貸款——最軟的——以及其他三個部分，這——另外兩個部分，即負擔得起的奢侈品和升級的奢侈品，它們的運行情況大致相同，而城市生活做得最好，現在僅限紐約。我們有兩棟建築，一棟在曼哈頓，一棟在澤西城，在銷售方面正在壓倒它。

they're all in JV.

他們都在合資企業。

They're all in JV that's going to come into the other income line, but we sold 80 units in Jersey City in 6 months. at $1 million plus a unit. And we're about to open on the Upper West side of Manhattan with what we think is significant pent-up demand. So I haven't said that in a long time, but the City Living segment is doing very, very well, but it's very small and again, in joint venture.

他們都是合資企業，將進入另一條收入線，但我們在 6 個月內在澤西城售出了 80 套。 100萬美元加上一個單位。我們即將在曼哈頓上西區開業，我們認為這是被壓抑的巨大需求。所以我很久沒這麼說了，但城市生活部門做得非常非常好，但它的規模很小，而且還是合資企業。

I think over the -- let's call it, the past 12 to 18 months, maybe even a little bit longer, you probably entered maybe a half a dozen new markets. Can you maybe give us some color on where those stand? And are you still committed to those markets, given the new environment and the likelihood you haven't achieved a scale yet.

我認為在過去的 12 到 18 個月，甚至更長的時間裡，你可能進入了六個新市場。你能給我們一些顏色嗎？考慮到新環境以及您尚未達到規模的可能性，您是否仍致力於這些市場？

Sure. So we had in three markets in South Carolina, Charleston, Myrtle Beach and Greenville through the acquisition of one builder down there, it's fantastic. And those markets are doing very well. They're part of the Smile States, when we talked about Smile States and now they're part of the East as we talk about the East. So we're very, very happy with that acquisition. We had a very small acquisition in San Antonio. We have a great presence in Texas. We've previously been in San Antonio. We actually have land in San Antonio for our own account when we acquired that builder. That's a small market, and we're just beginning to integrate their I'd say it's too early to say. But generally, Texas is doing just fine.

當然。因此，我們通過收購那裡的一家建築商，在南卡羅來納州、查爾斯頓、默特爾比奇和格林維爾擁有三個市場，這太棒了。這些市場表現非常好。他們是微笑州的一部分，當我們談論微笑州時，現在他們是東方的一部分，因為我們談論東方。所以我們對這次收購非常非常滿意。我們在聖安東尼奧進行了一次非常小的收購。我們在得克薩斯州有很大的影響力。我們以前去過聖安東尼奧。當我們收購那個建築商時，我們實際上在聖安東尼奧擁有土地供我們自己使用。那是一個小市場，我們才剛剛開始整合他們，我認為現在說還為時過早。但總的來說，得克薩斯州做得很好。

What else more recent guys and well, that's a new market. So Spokane, Coeur d'Alene, which was not a builder acquisition, but it was a new market. On the eastern side of the state of Washington. And of course, Coeur d'Alene is in Idaho, but it's right down the road from Spokane. That's at a very slow start. We just entered Long Island. And at $3 million, $4 million, we're doing really well. That's -- and we opened 4 months ago, not great timing, but we actually have really good sales.

還有什麼最近的人，好吧，這是一個新市場。所以斯波坎，科達倫，這不是建築商收購，而是一個新市場。在華盛頓州的東部。當然，科達倫在愛達荷州，但它就在斯波坎的路上。這是一個非常緩慢的開始。我們剛進入長島。在 300 萬、400 萬美元的情況下，我們做得非常好。那是——我們 4 個月前開業，不是很好的時機，但實際上我們的銷售額非常好。

Nashville is a new market, just too early to tell. We have a couple of urban buildings, not high rise, but midrise and we haven't even opened our first suburban building. So that will take a little bit of time. Tampa opened maybe 3 years ago, terrific sales -- we're having some production issues there that we're working through. But long term, I think we're very pleased with being in Tampa and Marty put it on the board for me, and that rounds it out.

納什維爾是一個新市場，現在下結論還為時過早。我們有幾棟城市建築，不是高層建築，而是中層建築，我們甚至還沒有開設第一座郊區建築。所以這需要一點時間。坦帕大約 3 年前開業，銷量非常好——我們在那裡遇到了一些生產問題，我們正在努力解決。但從長遠來看，我認為我們對在坦帕感到非常高興，馬蒂為我把它放在了董事會上，這就結束了。

Our next question comes from Mike Dahl from RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Mike Dahl。

Doug, just following up on Alan's question and Steve's earlier around just the strategy of how you evaluate the spring and not mean sense to kind of push on a string in December. I guess any more quantification for -- what's kind of the trigger point on a pace basis where you just say, "Hey, this isn't working in the spring because the back half of your fiscal year, you ran about a 1.2 a month. So is it -- if you just flatline at 1.2, been, hey, like we've got to drive back towards 2 or whatever the number is? Or maybe just a little elaboration on metrics that you're going to be looking for and what's acceptable.

道格，只是跟進艾倫的問題，而史蒂夫早些時候只是圍繞您如何評估春季的策略，而不是在 12 月推動字符串的意思。我想還有更多的量化——基於速度的觸發點是什麼，你只是說，“嘿，這在春天不起作用，因為你財政年度的後半部分，你每月跑了大約 1.2 . 所以是嗎——如果你只是在 1.2 保持平穩，嘿，就像我們必須回到 2 或任何數字一樣？或者可能只是對你要尋找的指標的一些詳細說明什麼是可以接受的。

Sure. So there's not one metric. We don't have a sales quota. We've never run this company top line down but we're very mindful of the need if we get to that point of driving more sales. And I'm sorry for the vague answer, but that means that we analyze every community locally. We start having meetings with the sales team, with the community team. We do a deep dive into the market comps and we start making pricing decisions accordingly. We also may have some modest shift in product offering. Maybe you come in with a smaller house. Maybe you come in with the same house, but you pull some features out of it. There's a lot of different moves that we make.

當然。所以沒有一個指標。我們沒有銷售配額。我們從來沒有經營過這家公司的頂線，但如果我們達到推動更多銷售的地步，我們會非常注意這一點。很抱歉回答含糊不清，但這意味著我們會在本地分析每個社區。我們開始與銷售團隊和社區團隊開會。我們深入研究市場比較，並開始相應地做出定價決策。我們也可能在產品供應方面有一些適度的轉變。也許你進來時有一個較小的房子。也許你帶著同樣的房子進來，但你從中提取了一些特徵。我們做了很多不同的動作。

It's studied weekly, but it's studied very, very locally. So I can't tell you that if we sit at 1, 2 sales per month and really want to be at 2, we're going to start making some dramatic company-wide moves. It's going to continue to be market and community specific, and we will act accordingly as we roll through the spring season.

它每週學習一次，但它的學習非常非常本地化。所以我不能告訴你，如果我們每月銷售 1、2 件並且真的想達到 2 件，我們將開始在全公司範圍內採取一些戲劇性的舉措。它將繼續針對特定市場和社區，我們將在整個春季期間採取相應行動。

Understood. Okay. And then maybe from a more near-term standpoint, given some of the comments earlier in the quarter and how you say you got burned by them. But it does seem like maybe you ended the quarter closer to 1 a month. So when you make the comment about no discernible improvement, is that kind of relative to quarter end pace? Is it -- you were down 60% for the full quarter, and you're just saying still down about 60% -- maybe just give us a little more on the current sales pace and what you're trying to -- the message with that comment?

明白了。好的。然後也許從更近期的角度來看，考慮到本季度早些時候的一些評論以及你如何說你被他們燒毀了。但看起來你在本季度末接近每月 1 個。因此，當您評論說沒有明顯的改善時，這是相對於季度末的速度嗎？是嗎 - 你整個季度下降了 60%，你只是說仍然下降了大約 60% - 也許只是給我們更多關於當前銷售速度和你正在嘗試的東西 - 信息有那個評論？

Yes. So the demand was pretty even between August, September and October. So our comments on November and the first -- the beginning of December here are related to the entire fourth quarter. So I wouldn't read more into it than that. To my earlier comment on we're going to continue to react to the need to incentivize where appropriate. Remember, we haven't given up on ROE, and we are very focused on ROE, and we will continue to focus on ROE, not just in terms of any future land buying or in terms of renegotiating of existing deals, but also in terms of the need to turn inventory. And so building costs coming down, cycle time coming down, and the need to turn that inventory is front and center in our mind.

是的。因此，8 月、9 月和 10 月之間的需求相當均衡。因此，我們對 11 月和 12 月初的評論與整個第四季度有關。所以我不會閱讀更多內容。對於我之前的評論，我們將繼續對適當激勵的需要做出反應。請記住，我們沒有放棄 ROE，我們非常關注 ROE，我們將繼續關注 ROE，不僅是在任何未來的土地購買或現有交易的重新談判方面，而且在條款方面需要周轉庫存。因此，建築成本下降、週期時間下降以及周轉庫存的需求成為我們的首要考慮因素。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to management for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回管理層聽取任何閉幕詞。

Jason, thank you very much. Thanks, everyone for your interest and support and great questions. We are always here to help clarify any further questions you may have. And have a wonderful, wonderful holiday season, and we'll see you in the new year. Thank you.

傑森，非常感謝你。謝謝大家的興趣和支持，以及很好的問題。我們總是在這裡幫助澄清您可能有的任何進一步問題。祝你有個美好的假期，我們新年見。謝謝你。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。