托爾兄弟 (TOL) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Toll Brothers second-quarter fiscal year 2025 conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please also note, today's event is be recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the floor over to Douglas Yearley, CEO. Please go ahead.

大家早安，歡迎參加 Toll Brothers 2025 財年第二季電話會議。（操作員指示）另請注意，今天的活動將被記錄下來。現在，我想把發言權交給執行長道格拉斯·耶爾利 (Douglas Yearley)。請繼續。

Thank you, Jamie. Good morning. Welcome, and thank you all for joining us. With me today are Marty Connor, Chief Financial Officer; Rob Parahus, President and Chief Operating Officer; Wendy Marlett, Chief Marketing Officer; and Gregg Ziegler, Senior VP, Treasurer and Head of Investor Relations.

謝謝你，傑米。早安.歡迎大家加入我們，謝謝大家。今天與我一起出席的還有財務長 Marty Connor、總裁兼營運長 Rob Parahus、首席行銷長 Wendy Marlett 和高級副總裁、財務主管兼投資者關係主管 Gregg Ziegler。

As usual, I caution you that many statements on this call are forward-looking based on assumptions about the economy, world events, housing and financial markets interest rates, the availability of labor and materials, inflation and many other factors beyond our control that could significantly affect future results. Please read our statement on forward-looking information in our earnings release of last night, and on our website to better understand the risks associated with our forward-looking statements.

像往常一樣，我提醒您，本次電話會議中的許多聲明都是前瞻性的，基於對經濟、世界事件、住房和金融市場利率、勞動力和材料供應、通貨膨脹以及許多其他我們無法控制的因素的假設，這些因素可能會對未來結果產生重大影響。請閱讀我們昨晚發布的收益報告中以及我們網站上的前瞻性資訊聲明，以更好地了解與我們的前瞻性陳述相關的風險。

I am pleased with our performance in the second quarter. In what proved to be a challenging environment, we met or exceeded our guidance across all key metrics. We delivered 2,899 homes at an average price of approximately $934,000, generating record second quarter home sales revenue of $2.71 billion or $236 million better than the midpoint of our guidance. We posted an adjusted gross margin of 27.5% and an SG&A margin of 9.5%, a 25 and 80 basis points better than guidance, respectively and we earned $352.4 million or $3.50 per diluted share. Adjusting for the $175 million pretax land sale gain we recorded last year, our second quarter earnings per share were a record.

我對我們第二季的表現感到滿意。事實證明，在充滿挑戰的環境中，我們在所有關鍵指標上都達到或超越了我們的預期。我們交付了 2,899 套房屋，平均價格約為 934,000 美元，創造了第二季度房屋銷售收入 27.1 億美元的紀錄，比我們預期的中位數高出 2.36 億美元。我們公佈的調整後毛利率為 27.5%，銷售、一般及行政費用利潤率為 9.5%，分別比預期高出 25 個基點和 80 個基點，我們的利潤為 3.524 億美元，即每股收益 3.50 美元。經過去年記錄的 1.75 億美元稅前土地出售收益的調整，我們第二季的每股盈餘創下了歷史新高。

We believe these results highlight the strength of our broadly diversified luxury product offerings, our balanced portfolio of build-to-order and spec homes and our strategy of prioritizing sales base and margin in the current environment as we seek to maximize returns. They also reflect the financial strength of our customers. Our results and the strength of our backlog also provide us the confidence to reaffirm all of our guidance for fiscal 2025, and including home sales revenue of $10.9 billion at the midpoint, an adjusted gross margin of 27.25% and earnings of approximately $14 per diluted share.

我們相信，這些結果凸顯了我們廣泛多樣化的豪華產品供應的優勢、我們均衡的按訂單生產和規格住宅組合以及我們在當前環境下優先考慮銷售基礎和利潤以尋求最大化回報的戰略。它們也反映了我們客戶的財務實力。我們的業績和強勁的積壓訂單也使我們有信心重申對 2025 財年的所有指導，包括中點 109 億美元的房屋銷售收入、27.25% 的調整後毛利率和每股約 14 美元的收益。

Turning to market conditions. In the second quarter, we signed 2,650 net agreements for $2.6 billion down approximately 13% in units and 11% in dollars compared to last year's strong second quarter. We experienced softer demand in the second quarter due to a decline in consumer confidence driven by increased economic uncertainty. These conditions have continued into our third quarter. In this environment, we believe prioritizing price and margin over pace makes the most strategic sense.

轉向市場狀況。第二季度，我們簽署了 2,650 份淨協議，價值​​ 26 億美元，與去年強勁的第二季度相比，單位數下降約 13%，金額下降約 11%。由於經濟不確定性增加導致消費者信心下降，第二季需求疲軟。這些情況一直持續到第三季。在這種環境下，我們認為優先考慮價格和利潤而不是速度才是最具戰略意義的。

We are confident that our balanced approach will allow us to continue successfully navigating this market.

我們相信，我們平衡的方法將使我們能夠繼續成功駕馭這個市場。

Our average sales price in the quarter was approximately $983,000 compared to $1 million in our first quarter and $967,000 in the second quarter of fiscal 2024. Given the softer demand environment, we modestly increased incentives in the quarter. Overall, incentives were approximately 7% of the average sales price, up from our recent average of 5% to 6%. As we discussed last quarter, we have been reducing our spec starts to match local market conditions. Our spec strategy is calibrated to effectively balance the need to add quick moving homes available to meet buyer demand while protecting margins.

本季我們的平均銷售價格約為 983,000 美元，而 2024 財年第一季的平均銷售價格為 100 萬美元，第二季的平均銷售價格為 967,000 美元。鑑於需求環境疲軟，我們在本季適度增加了激勵措施。總體而言，獎勵約佔平均銷售價格的 7%，高於我們最近的平均 5% 至 6%。正如我們上個季度所討論的那樣，我們一直在減少規格開工以適應當地市場情況。我們的規格策略經過精心調整，可以有效平衡增加快速移動房屋的需求，以滿足買家需求，同時保護利潤。

Over the past decade, we have worked hard to build a nationwide platform with operations in over 60 markets in 24 states. We now serve all buyer groups with the broadest home offerings in the industry and prices that range from the 300,000 to over $5 million. We have entered new markets and expanded our offerings while enhancing all that sets us apart as America's luxury homebuilder, an exceptional brand, our affluent customer base, prestigious locations, distinctive architecture, unrivaled choice and an extraordinary customer experience.

在過去的十年裡，我們努力建立一個全國性的平台，業務遍及 24 個州的 60 多個市場。我們現在為所有買家群體提供業內最廣泛的房屋選擇，價格從 30 萬美元到 500 萬美元以上不等。我們進入了新的市場並擴大了我們的服務範圍，同時增強了我們作為美國豪華住宅建築商、卓越品牌、富裕客戶群、優越地理位置、獨特的建築、無與倫比的選擇和非凡的客戶體驗的所有優勢。

We've executed this growth strategy while derisking our balance sheet improving capital efficiency and returning capital to stockholders. Our performance in the second quarter and over the past many years has demonstrated the competitive advantages of our business and brand in driving high returns as well as our ability to navigate through challenging markets. And while the near-term outlook for the housing market remains cloudy due to the well-known affordability pressures, and the volatile macro environment, we continue to believe the long-term outlook for new home for the new home market remains positive, particularly for our luxury niche.

我們執行了這個成長策略，同時降低了資產負債表的風險，提高了資本效率並向股東返還了資本。我們在第二季度以及過去多年的表現證明了我們的業務和品牌在推動高回報方面的競爭優勢以及我們應對充滿挑戰的市場的能力。儘管由於眾所周知的負擔能力壓力和動蕩的宏觀環境，房地產市場的短期前景仍然不明朗，但我們仍然相信，新房市場的長期前景依然樂觀，尤其是對於我們的豪華房地產市場而言。

With many entry-level buyers struggling with affordability challenges, we are pleased to be serving an affluent consumer. Over 70% of our business serves the move-up and empty nester segments. These buyers are wealthier, have greater financial flexibility and most have equity in their existing homes. The remaining 25% to 30% of our business serves the more affluent, older, first-time buyer. The financial strength of our customer base is highlighted by our industry low cancellation rate, high percentage of all cash buyers and low LTVs for those who take a mortgage. Consistent with the past several quarters, approximately 24% of our buyers paid all cash in the second quarter, up from our long-term average of approximately 20%.

由於許多入門級買家都面臨著購買力不足的挑戰，我們很高興能夠為富裕的消費者提供服務。我們超過 70% 的業務服務於向上流動人口和空巢老人群體。這些買家更加富有，擁有更大的財務靈活性，大多數人擁有現有房屋的產權。其餘 25% 至 30% 的業務服務於較為富裕、年長的首次購屋者。我們客戶群的財務實力體現在我們行業較低的取消率、全現金買家比例較高以及抵押貸款人的低 LTV。與過去幾季一致，我們約有 24% 的買家在第二季支付了全現金，高於我們長期平均水準的約 20%。

The LTVs of buyers who took a mortgage in the quarter was approximately 70%, and our contract cancellation rate was 2.8% of beginning backlog. In addition, the average spend on design studio selections, structural options and lot premiums was approximately $200,000 per home in Q2 and consistent with our first quarter. These upgrades benefit our margins as they tend to be highly accretive. We continue to expect community count growth to help drive results in fiscal 2025 and beyond. We remain on target to reach our year-end guidance of approximately 440 to 450 communities, which would represent an 8% to 10% increase versus fiscal year-end 2024.

本季獲得抵押貸款的買家的 LTV 約為 70%，我們的合約取消率為期初積壓量的 2.8%。此外，第二季每套房屋在設計工作室選擇、結構選擇和地塊溢價上的平均花費約為 20 萬美元，與第一季持平。這些升級有利於我們的利潤率，因為它們往往具有很高的增值性。我們持續期待社區數量的成長將有助於推動 2025 財年及以後的業績。我們仍有望實現年底指導目標，即覆蓋約 440 至 450 個社區，與 2024 財年末相比增長 8% 至 10%。

We project similar community count growth in fiscal 2026. We also continue to see modest improvements in our construction cycle times as we focus on increasing production efficiency.

我們預計 2026 財年的社區數量也將出現類似的成長。隨著我們專注於提高生產效率，我們的施工週期也持續略有改善。

We have not yet seen any impact from potential tariffs on building costs or product availability, while it is difficult to predict where tariffs will land and the precise impact to our business, we do not believe we will see any significant impact in fiscal 2025.

我們尚未看到潛在關稅對建築成本或產品可用性產生任何影響，雖然很難預測關稅將在何處落地以及對我們業務的具體影響，但我們認為在 2025 財年不會看到任何重大影響。

Turning to land at our second quarter end, we controlled approximately 78,600 lots 8 of which were optioned. Over the past years -- excuse me, over the past year, we have increased our percentage of option lots from 48% to 58% of our total lot count consistent with our focus on structuring land deals in more capital-efficient ways in order to enhance returns.

談到土地，截至第二季末，我們控制約 78,600 個地塊，其中 8 個已被選擇。在過去的幾年裡——對不起，在過去的一年裡，我們將期權地塊的比例從總地塊數量的 48% 提高到了 58%，這與我們專注於以更具資本效率的方式構建土地交易以提高回報的重點一致。

Our land position allows us to continue to be highly selective and disciplined as we approach new opportunities. In today's environment, we have tightened our underwriting standards and are reducing land spend on new deals, which we expect to primarily impact fiscal 2026 land spend. At quarter end, we held approximately $686 million of cash and cash equivalents and our net debt-to-capital ratio was 19.8%. We continue to generate strong operating cash flows. This provides us plenty of opportunity to both grow our business and return capital to stockholders.

我們的土地優勢使我們能夠在抓住新機會時繼續保持高度的選擇性和紀律。在當今環境下，我們收緊了承保標準，並減少了新交易的土地支出，我們預計這將主要影響 2026 財年的土地支出。截至季末，我們持有約 6.86 億美元的現金和現金等價物，淨負債資本比率為 19.8%。我們持續產生強勁的營運現金流。這為我們提供了充足的機會來發展業務並向股東返還資本。

During the quarter, we repurchased $177 million of our common stock. Given our strong financial position, healthy projected cash flow and our focus on returning capital to stockholders, we are increasing our projected share repurchases in fiscal 2025 from $500 million to $600 million. With that, I will turn it over to Marty.

本季度，我們回購了價值 1.77 億美元的普通股。鑑於我們強大的財務狀況、健康的預期現金流量以及我們對向股東返還資本的關注，我們將 2025 財年的預期股票回購額從 5 億美元增加到 6 億美元。說完這些，我就把麥克風交給 Marty。

Thanks, Doug. And congrats on today being the 35th anniversary of your first day at Toll and your 60th conference call.

謝謝，道格。恭喜今天是您加入 Toll 的 35 週年紀念日，也是您參加第 60 次電話會議的紀念日。

We had a strong second quarter, beating our guidance for deliveries, homebuilding revenue, adjusted gross margin, SG&A and earnings. In the quarter, we delivered 2,899 homes and generated home sales revenues of $2.71 billion, up nearly 10% units and 2.3% in dollars compared to last year. Both were second quarter records. At the midpoint, we delivered nearly 300 more homes in our guidance or $236 million of home sales revenue. The average price of homes delivered in the quarter was approximately $934,000, a bit below the low end of our guidance as we delivered more homes in our Mountain and Mid-Atlantic regions than anticipated.

我們第二季表現強勁，交付量、房屋建築收入、調整後毛利率、銷售、一般及行政開支和收益均超乎預期。本季度，我們交付了 2,899 套房屋，創造了 27.1 億美元的房屋銷售收入，與去年相比，房屋數量增長了近 10%，銷售額增長了 2.3%。兩項數據均為第二季的記錄。截至目前，我們交付的房屋數量比預期多出近 300 套，房屋銷售收入達 2.36 億美元。本季交付的房屋平均價格約為 934,000 美元，略低於我們預期的低端，因為我們在山區和中大西洋地區交付的房屋數量超出預期。

We signed 2,650 net agreements for $2.6 billion in the quarter, down 13% in units and 11% in dollars compared to the second quarter of fiscal year 2024. The average price of contracts signed in the quarter was approximately $983,000, up 1.6% compared to last year. At second quarter end, our backlog still stood at $6.84 billion and 6,063 homes, down 7% in dollars and 15% units compared to a year ago. The average price of the homes in our backlog was $113 million, a company record. Our second quarter adjusted gross margin was 27.5% and which was 25 basis points better than guidance.

本季我們簽署了 2,650 份淨協議，價值​​ 26 億美元，與 2024 財年第二季相比，單位數下降 13%，金額下降 11%。本季簽訂的合約平均價格約為983,000美元，較去年同期上漲1.6%。截至第二季末，我們的積壓訂單仍為 68.4 億美元和 6,063 套房屋，與去年同期相比，金額下降 7%，套數下降 15%。我們積壓房屋的平均價格為 1.13 億美元，創下了公司最高紀錄。我們第二季的調整後毛利率為 27.5%，比預期高出 25 個基點。

Our Q2 gross margin exceeded guidance primarily due to positive mix, strong cost control and increased leverage from higher-than-projected revenues. Write-offs in our home sales gross margin totaled $9.8 million in the quarter, as compared to $28.4 million in the second quarter of 2024. SG&A as a percentage of home sales revenue was 9.5% in the second quarter and 80 basis points better than guidance. again, reflecting our focus on cost controls and leverage from higher-than-expected home sales revenue. Second quarter JV land sales and other income was $29 million versus our breakeven guidance.

我們第二季的毛利率超出預期，主要原因是積極的產品組合、強大的成本控制以及高於預期的收入帶來的槓桿率提高。本季度，我們房屋銷售毛利率的沖銷總額為 980 萬美元，而 2024 年第二季為 2,840 萬美元。第二季度，銷售、一般及行政費用佔房屋銷售收入的百分比為 9.5%，比預期高出 80 個基點。這再次反映了我們對成本控制的關注以及對高於預期的房屋銷售收入的槓桿作用。第二季合資土地銷售和其他收入為 2,900 萬美元，而我們的盈虧平衡預期為 2,900 萬美元。

Approximately $15 million of this gain was attributable to the sale of a stabilized asset in one of our Apartment Living joint ventures, with the remainder primarily attributable to interest income and income from our mortgage title and City Living operations.

其中約 1500 萬美元的收益歸因於我們其中一家 Apartment Living 合資企業出售一項穩定資產，其餘收益主要歸因於利息收入以及來自我們的抵押貸款和城市生活業務的收入。

Our tax rate in the second quarter was approximately 26.2%. Our balance sheet is very healthy. At second quarter end, we had $2.8 billion of liquidity, including approximately $686 million of cash, and our net debt-to-capital ratio was 19.8%. In addition, we are generating strong cash flows with approximately $1 billion of cash flows from operations projected for fiscal 2025. As previously reported, during the quarter, we extended the maturities of our credit facilities to February 2030 and upsized our revolver to $2.35 billion and we increased our quarterly dividend by 9% to $0.25 per share.

我們第二季的稅率約為26.2%。我們的資產負債表非常健康。截至第二季末，我們的流動資金為 28 億美元，其中包括約 6.86 億美元的現金，淨負債資本比率為 19.8%。此外，我們正在產生強勁的現金流，預計 2025 財年的營運現金流約為 10 億美元。如前所述，在本季度，我們將信貸額度的期限延長至 2030 年 2 月，並將循環信貸額度增加至 23.5 億美元，同時將季度股息提高 9% 至每股 0.25 美元。

We repurchased $177 million of our common stock, bringing full year repurchases to approximately $200 million and we bought 2,073 lots for $362 million.

我們回購了價值 1.77 億美元的普通股，使全年回購額達到約 2 億美元，並以 3.62 億美元的價格購買了 2,073 股。

As Doug mentioned, as a result of our strong financial position and healthy cash flows, we are increasing our projected share repurchases in fiscal '25 from $500 million to $600 million. Turning to guidance. Our outlook is subject to the usual caveats regarding forward-looking information and the assumptions, risks and uncertainties inherent to projections. Based on our backlog, recent sales activity and the number of homes currently under construction or completed, we expect to deliver between 2,800 and 3,000 homes in the third quarter. and we continue to expect to deliver between 11,200 and 11,600 homes for the full year.

正如 Doug 所提到的，由於我們強大的財務狀況和健康的現金流，我們將 25 財年的預計股票回購額從 5 億美元增加到 6 億美元。轉向指導。我們的展望受制於有關前瞻性資訊的通常警告以及預測固有的假設、風險和不確定性。根據我們的積壓訂單、最近的銷售活動以及目前正在建造或已完工的房屋數量，我們預計第三季將交付 2,800 至 3,000 套房屋。我們繼續預計全年將交付 11,200 至 11,600 套房屋。

Our projected second half delivery cadence is consistent with what it has been over the past several years.

我們預計下半年的交付節奏與過去幾年的節奏一致。

On average, we delivered approximately 58% of full-year deliveries in the second half with 26% of the total delivered in the third quarter and 32% in the fourth quarter. We are projecting essentially the same percentages this year. The average price of deliveries in the third quarter is expected to be between $965,000 and $985,000. We are maintaining our full year projection of $945,000 to $965,000 for our average price of deliveries. As Doug mentioned, in today's softer demand environment we believe it makes the most strategic sense to prioritize price and margin over pace. This strategy, combined with the gross margin embedded in our backlog, a gives us confidence in maintaining our full year projected adjusted gross margin of 27.5%.

平均而言，我們在下半年交付了約 58% 的全年交付量，第三季度交付了 26% 的全年交付量，第四季度交付了 32% 的全年交付量。我們預計今年的百分比基本上相同。預計第三季交付的平均價格在 965,000 美元至 985,000 美元之間。我們維持全年平均交貨價格 945,000 美元至 965,000 美元的預測。正如道格所提到的，在當今需求疲軟的環境下，我們認為優先考慮價格和利潤而不是速度才是最具戰略意義的。這項策略，加上我們積壓訂單中的毛利率，使我們有信心維持全年預計的 27.5% 調整後毛利率。

For the third quarter, we also expect adjusted gross margin to be 27.25%. We expect interest in cost of sales to be approximately 1.2% of home sales revenues in the third quarter and also for the full year. Third-quarter SG&A as a percentage of home sales revenue is expected to be approximately 9.2%. For the full year, we continue to expect it to be between 9.4% and 9.5%. Other income, income from unconsolidated entities and land sales gross profit in the third quarter is expected to break even.

對於第三季度，我們也預期調整後的毛利率為 27.25%。我們預計第三季以及全年銷售成本中的利息將佔房屋銷售收入的約 1.2%。預計第三季銷售、一般及行政費用將佔房屋銷售收入的百分比約為 9.2%。就全年而言，我們仍然預計其成長率將在 9.4% 至 9.5% 之間。預計第三季其他收入、非合併實體收入及土地銷售毛利將達到損益兩平。

We continue to project $110 million for the full year much of which is projected to come from fourth quarter sales of our interest in certain stabilized department communities developed by Toll Brothers Apartment Living in joint venture with various partners.

我們繼續預計全年營收為 1.1 億美元，其中大部分預計來自第四季度出售我們在 Toll Brothers Apartment Living 與多個合作夥伴合資開發的某些穩定部門社區中的權益。

We project the third quarter tax rate to be approximately 26% and the full year rate to be approximately 25.5%. Our community count at quarter end was $421 compared to our guide of $4.15. We expect 430 at the end of the third quarter and reaffirm 440 to 450 communities by the end of the fiscal year. Our weighted average share count is expected to be approximately 99 million for the third quarter and 100 million for the full year. This assumes we repurchased $400 million of common stock in the second half on top of the $200 million we bought back so far this year, which would be consistent with the greater operating cash flow we typically generate in the second half.

我們預計第三季稅率約為 26%，全年稅率約為 25.5%。本季末，我們的社區數量為421個，而我們的預期是4.15個。我們預計第三季末社區數量將達到430個，並確認本財年末社區數量將達到440至450個。我們預計第三季的加權平均股數約為 9,900 萬股，全年的加權平均股數約為 1 億股。這假設我們在下半年回購了 4 億美元的普通股，而今年迄今為止我們已回購了 2 億美元，這與我們通常在下半年產生的更大的營運現金流相一致。

All of our guidance for fiscal 2025 translates to approximately $14 per diluted share. This would result in a full-year return of being return on beginning equity of approximately 18%, and we put our year-end book value per share at approximately $90. We believe these results will once again reinforce the strength and resiliency of our business model as well as our ability to successfully navigate changing market conditions while still delivering attractive returns to stockholders. Now let me turn it back to Doug.

我們對 2025 財年的所有指引相當於每股攤薄收益約 14 美元。這將導致全年回報率達到約 18% 的期初股本回報率，並且我們將每股年末帳面價值設定為約 90 美元。我們相信，這些結果將再次增強我們商業模式的實力和彈性，以及我們成功應對不斷變化的市場條件的能力，同時仍為股東帶來可觀的回報。現在讓我把話題轉回給 Doug。

Thank you, Marty. Before I open it up for questions, I'd like to thank our Toll Brothers employees for their hard work in the first half of 2025. I am proud of your commitment to our customers and dedication to our business. which are key drivers to our long-term success. Now let's open it up to your questions.

謝謝你，馬蒂。在開始提問之前，我想感謝 Toll Brothers 員工在 2025 年上半年的辛勤工作。我為你們對客戶的承諾和對我們業務的奉獻感到自豪，這些都是我們長期成功的關鍵驅動力。現在讓我們來回答你們的問題。

Jamie, we're ready to go.

傑米，我們準備出發了。

(Operator Instructions) Stephen Kim, Evercore ISI.

（操作員指示）Stephen Kim，Evercore ISI。

Appreciate all the color as usual. My first question actually has a bit of a housekeeping element to it. We didn't see your spec data and your homes under completed and under construction information. So I was wondering if you could kind of give us an update on where your specs stand, both completed as well as under construction.

一如既往地欣賞所有的色彩。我的第一個問題其實有點與日常事務有關。我們沒有看到您的規格數據以及您的房屋的已完工和在建資訊。所以我想知道您是否可以向我們介紹您的規格的最新情況，包括已完成的和正在建造的。

And my overarching question with respect to that is, you've talked about 11,500 closings, give or take. I'm kind of wondering, like how many units do you want to have under construction or completed at any point in time, given a run rate of about 11,000 closings? And where do we stand relative to that?

我對此的首要問題是，您談到了大約 11,500 起關閉事件，或多或少。我有點好奇，假設關閉的運行率約為 11,000 個，您希望在任何時間點有多少個單元處於建設中或完成狀態？那我們相對於這一點處於什麼位置呢？

So I'll let Marty -- Steve, I'll let Marty give you the details on the spec count, and then I'll be happy to jump in and answer your question.

所以我會讓馬蒂——史蒂夫，我會讓馬蒂給你有關規格數量的詳細信息，然後我會很高興地回答你的問題。

Sure. So Steve, we have just over 1,000 fully completed spec units right now. And we have a number.

當然。史蒂夫，我們現在有 1,000 多個完全完成的規格單元。我們有一個數字。

Can we get a specific number, do you mind? Marty?

您介意我們得到一個具體的數字嗎？馬蒂？

1,028. We have approximately (inaudible).

1,028。我們大約有（聽不清楚）。

I just got a text from the field, we sold one more.

我剛剛收到現場發來的短信，我們又賣了一個。

That is the number as of 4:30. 2,400 or so in progress, and we have permits available for another 1,000 or 2,000 behind those that we have not commenced construction on.

這是截至 4:30 的數字。大約有 2,400 個項目正在建設中，對於尚未開始建設的項目，我們還有 1,000 或 2,000 個項目可以獲得許可。

Right. So the 2,400 in progress means that we've issued a go to the field. And so in progress could mean the survey crew is taking out the lot to anticipate a foundation going in. So it goes all the way back to company's decision to go, but it could -- you may not visibly see anything on the site yet, but the permits in hand, and we're ready to go. So it's a very broad definition. With respect, does that give you what you need?

正確的。因此，正在進行的 2,400 項工作意味著我們已經向該領域發出了行動請求。因此，「正在進行」可能意味著勘測人員正在拆除地塊，以準備打地基。所以這一切都要追溯到公司的決定，但你可能還沒有在現場看到任何東西，但我們已經拿到了許可證，準備出發了。所以這是一個非常廣泛的定義。恕我直言，這能滿足您的需求嗎？

Yes. Will follow cleanup later on, but sure that gets us close.

是的。稍後會進行清理，但確保我們能接近目標。

I think the other aspect that may be along the lines of what you're looking for, this is about the highest concentration of work in progress and completed specs that we will have at any particular point in time during the year.

我認為另一個方面可能與您所尋找的一致，即我們在一年中任何特定時間點所擁有的在製品和已完成規格的最高集中度。

So you asked about our comfort level. We are comfortable with where we are in the spec business, we had gotten it up to 55% a few quarters ago. As you heard us say today, we are slowing the start of new specs. So many of those permits we talked about are sitting at permit without a go issue. And I think that is a smart way to run this business in the current environment.

所以您詢問我們的舒適度。我們對目前規格業務的狀況感到滿意，幾個季度前我們已經將其提升至 55％。正如您今天聽到我們所說的那樣，我們正在放慢新規格的推出速度。我們討論過的許多許可證都處於擱置狀態，沒有得到批准。我認為這是在當前環境下經營業務的明智方法。

We are very pleased with how well we did in the second quarter in terms of the sale of specs without larger incentives. And one of the reasons we had a revenue beat in Q2 is because we call it same quarter, sell and sell right? So it's not a spec we sold in a prior quarter to settle now, but how many cell and settles do we have intra-quarter. And we were very pleased in with that activity and that incentive levels that were manageable.

我們對第二季在沒有更大激勵措施的情況下的規格銷售表現感到非常滿意。我們第二季度收入超出預期的原因之一是，我們稱之為“同一季度，銷售不斷”，對嗎？因此，這不是我們在上一季銷售並需要現在解決的規格，而是我們在本季內有多少電池和多少個解決方案。我們對這項活動以及可控的激勵程度感到非常滿意。

And so as we move forward, we continue to be very comfortable with Q3 and Q4 number of specs that we believe will sell and settle and we believe, based on current market conditions, we have conservatively budgeted incentives. Those incentives are consistent with what we achieved with our spec sales in Q2.

因此，隨著我們不斷前進，我們對第三季度和第四季度將銷售和解決的規格數量感到非常滿意，並且我們相信，基於當前的市場狀況，我們已經保守地預算了激勵措施。這些激勵措施與我們第二季的規格銷售業績一致。

And that's why we have comfort in the guide understanding that we have 1,000 completed spec homes that we intended to sell and sell. And then beyond that, of course, some of these homes in progress, many of these homes of progress would be ready to deliver by the end of October, the end of our fiscal year.

這就是為什麼我們能安心地了解到，我們有 1,000 套已完成的樣品屋打算出售。除此之外，當然，其中一些正在建造的房屋，許多正在建造的房屋將在 10 月底，也就是我們的財政年度結束時準備好交付。

We have projected that some of those will, in fact, sell over the next 5.5 months and settle, but there'll be another bunch of those that while they could settled by the end of Q4. We are not budgeting for that. We are conservatively assuming that they roll into 2026 and set up that year.

我們預計其中一些將在未來 5.5 個月內出售並結算，但還有另一批可能在第四季末結算。我們沒有為此編制預算。我們保守地認為它們將在 2026 年推出並在那一年建立。

But in terms of the incentive front, which I know is question out there. We've read it overnight. We're very comfortable with how we budgeted. Yes, there's more incentive needed to move spec right now in this market than build to order. We are very pleased with build-to-order margin. It actually is coming in higher than we have budgeted, particularly for the more luxury homes, the more expensive homes.

但就激勵方面而言，我知道這是一個問題。我們一夜之間就讀完了它。我們對我們的預算非常滿意。是的，現在在這個市場上，改變規格比按訂單生產更需要激勵。我們對按訂單生產的利潤感到非常滿意。事實上，它的價格高於我們的預算，特別是對於更豪華、更昂貴的住宅。

Those margins are coming in even higher. So while the spec margin is a little bit lower, it all blends out to 27.25%, 27.5% as we did in this past quarter, and we are assuming no improvement in the market over the next 5.5 months to deliver the returns and the guidance that we have presented.

利潤率甚至會更高。因此，雖然規格利潤率略低，但總體而言達到 27.25% 或 27.5%，就像我們在上個季度所做的那樣，並且我們假設未來 5.5 個月市場不會有任何改善，從而實現我們提出的回報和指導。

John Lovallo, UBS.

瑞銀的約翰·洛瓦洛。

First one is, I mean, obviously, you did a really nice job managing the business. And as you talked about prioritizing price and margin over pace in the quarter. The third quarter gross margin outlook of 27% in the quarter implies pretty flat quarter-over-quarter margin in the fourth quarter. Just curious kind of what are the moving pieces impacting the second half gross margin. Any thoughts on sort of the sustainability of this into next year?

首先，我的意思是，顯然你在管理業務方面做得非常出色。正如您所說，本季度優先考慮價格和利潤而不是速度。第三季毛利率預期為 27%，這意味著第四季的毛利率將與上一季持平。只是好奇哪些因素會影響下半年的毛利率。對於明年這情況的可持續性，您有何看法？

Sure. So it's a great question. Yes, you are right in your math that the fourth quarter margin, we expect to be about the same as the third quarter at $272 million. While there will be some downward pressure because of the spec cell and settles, as I discussed, we have some tailwind on gross margin from mix. There's going to be more luxury delivering in the second half of the year, which is higher margin, and there's going to be more out of the Pacific and out of the Mid-Atlantic region, which both support higher gross margin.

當然。這是一個很好的問題。是的，您的計算是正確的，我們預計第四季度的利潤率將與第三季大致相同，為 2.72 億美元。雖然由於規格電池和穩定器的原因會存在一些下行壓力，但正如我所討論的，我們在組合毛利率方面獲得了一些順風。今年下半年將有更多豪華車型交付，利潤率更高，太平洋和大西洋中部地區的車型也將增加，這兩個地區都支持更高的毛利率。

So when you blend more spec that will have a bit -- we believe, a bit higher incentive with what I just described in the mix coming out of the Pacific and the Mid-Atlantic and more luxury nationwide. It all works out to the guidance we've given.

因此，當您將更多的規格融合在一起時，我們相信，與我剛才描述的來自太平洋和中大西洋地區以及全國範圍內的更多豪華酒店的組合相比，這將帶來更高的激勵。一切都按照我們給予的指導進行。

Understood. And then you guys beat the top end of the delivery guide by about 200 homes. What drove the beat? Was this product mix, maybe a little bit more spec? Was it regional mix?

明白了。然後你們就以大約 200 戶的配送範圍超越了配送指南的最高限額。是什麼推動了節奏？這種產品組合是否可能更具規格？這是地區混合嗎？

And does it imply that you're incrementally less optimistic on the full year given the maintained outlook?

這是否意味著，鑑於維持的前景，您對全年的樂觀程度逐漸降低？

I don't think it necessarily changes our optimism for the whole year. What we did in the second quarter is simply we outperformed by selling and settling more spec homes than we had projected, and we still had a gross margin beat. And I think that provides some evidence to the conservatism that we have in our guidance.

我認為這不一定會改變我們對全年的樂觀情緒。我們在第二季的表現非常出色，銷售和結算的樣品屋數量超出了我們的預期，而且我們的毛利率仍然超過了預期。我認為這為我們的指導方針的保守性提供了一些證據。

Mike Dahl, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Mike Dahl。

Just keep [attacking] the back half a little bit. I think when we look at it, historically, your point about the cadence being consistent. The flip side is, this is the first year that we can see looking back where your current backlog it didn't actually fully covering second half deliveries, meaning you need more deliveries in the second half than their current backlog.

繼續稍微攻擊後半部。我認為，當我們從歷史角度來看時，你對節奏的觀點是一致的。另一方面，回顧過去，這是我們第一次發現當前的積壓訂單實際上並沒有完全覆蓋下半年的交付量，這意味著下半年需要的交付量要多於當前的積壓訂單。

So I know like Doug, Marty, you talked about you expect to sell and settle some of the completed some of the under progress. Can you just give us a little more granularity on that opportunity like of the number of homes in progress or complete what is obviously complete can close, what percentage of that 2,400 you think could actually settled by year-end?

所以我知道，就像道格、馬蒂一樣，你們談到你們希望出售和解決一些已經完成和正在進行的事情。您能否向我們詳細介紹一下這一機會，例如，在建房屋數量或已完工且顯然可以成交的房屋數量，您認為這 2,400 套房屋中有多少比例可以在年底前真正成交？

And then just given the lack of visibility on margins for homes that you have get sold, a little more detail on how that pet margin progressed through the quarter would help, I think.

然後，由於對已售房屋的利潤率缺乏了解，我認為，更詳細地了解本季寵物利潤率的進展會有所幫助。

All right, Mike. So we have roughly 6,400 units left to deliver this year to hit the 11,400 midpoint. Roughly 4,500 of them should deliver from our backlog. Remember, our backlog is 6,050 or so homes. So those homes are sold.

好的，麥克。因此，我們今年還需交付約 6,400 台，才能達到 11,400 台的中點。其中大約有 4,500 份應從我們的積壓訂單中交付。請記住，我們的積壓房屋數量約為 6,050 套。所以那些房子就賣掉了。

We know the revenue. The build costs are contracted. So we have limited risk on their cost growing or shrinking and we think we have adequate builder reserves in those cost estimates. So let's take those 4,500 off the table. We have roughly 1,900 homes that will need to come from our spec inventory that haven't been sold yet.

我們知道收入。建造成本已簽訂合約。因此，我們對其成本增長或縮減的風險有限，並且我們認為在這些成本估算中我們有足夠的建築商儲備。所以讓我們把這 4,500 取消掉。我們有大約 1,900 套房屋需要從尚未售出的規格庫存中挑選出來。

We told you -- actually 1,028 of them are completed. So there's no build cost risk there. The others are all under construction. In fact, more than the 900 we would need to sell and settle are under construction.

我們告訴過你——實際上其中 1,028 個已經完成。因此不存在建設成本風險。其餘均在建設中。事實上，我們需要出售和結算的 900 多棟房屋正在建設中。

So there's not much cost risk there because they're under contract for construction. So it's really the selling price of those 1,900 where there is some potential risk, and we believe we've accounted for that in this market based on recent comparable sales, a lot of which I just mentioned in the second quarter still allowed us to outperform our guidance for the second quarter. We sold and settled 250 to 300 more specs in the second quarter than we thought when we entered the quarter, and we beat gross margin still. So I hope that helps give some comfort and understanding of what we foresee in the next 6 months.

因此不存在太大的成本風險，因為他們已經簽訂了建設合約。因此，這 1,900 輛汽車的售價確實存在一些潛在風險，我們相信，根據最近的可比銷售額，我們已經將這一風險考慮在內，我剛才在第二季度提到的許多銷售額仍然使我們能夠超越第二季度的預期。我們在第二季度銷售和結算的規格比我們進入本季時預想的多 250 到 300 個，而且我們的毛利率仍然超過了預期。因此，我希望這有助於讓我們對未來 6 個月的預測感到安慰和理解。

In those 900, we have 1,000 completed and then we need 900 more that are under construction. We have significantly more than the 900 that could deliver by October 31. So we are not being aggressive in assuming that, oh boy, we need to sell and settle everything we're building to hit that number. There will be plenty that will be setting up 2026 that do not sell and settle by the end of this fiscal year. It's also safe to assume that as we manage our spec production, where we have a green light for specs is probably where we're doing best.

在這 900 個項目中，我們已經完成了 1,000 個，還需要 900 個正在建設中。截至 10 月 31 日，我們能夠交付的數量遠遠超過 900 份。因此，我們不會積極地假設，哦天哪，我們需要出售和解決我們正在建造的所有東西才能達到這個數字。將會有大量房產在 2026 年設立，但在本財年結束前卻無法出售和結算。也可以安全地假設，當我們管理我們的規格生產時，我們對規格的綠燈可能是我們做得最好的地方。

Okay. That's perfect. Yes, very helpful. My follow-up question, maybe just on similar lines, you talked about the stronger margins on built-to-order luxury, presumably a lot of that is in your backlog. So you talked about your backlog gross margin. Can you give us a sense of where your current backlog gross margin stands?

好的。那很完美。是的，非常有幫助。我的後續問題是，也許只是在類似的情況下，您談到了定制奢侈品的更高利潤率，大概其中許多都在您的積壓訂單中。所以你談到了你的積壓訂單毛利率。您能否告訴我們您目前的積壓訂單毛利率狀況如何？

I think that's inherent in the guidance we've given you.

我認為這是我們給予您的指導中所固有的。

I mean the build-to-order business runs several hundred basis points above the midpoint, and the spec business runs several hundred below. Lately, that range has widened a little bit on both ends, but it still comes out in the middle. And that's why we like the business. I think we're doing a really good job of balancing our spec business with our build-to-order business. And remember, we don't hold spec off until the end where the client has no choice.

我的意思是按訂單生產業務的運行價格比中點高出幾百個基點，而規格業務的運行價格比中點低幾百個基點。最近，這個範圍在兩端都有所擴大，但仍處於中間。這就是我們喜歡這項業務的原因。我認為我們在平衡規格業務和按訂單生產業務方面做得非常好。請記住，我們不會等到客戶別無選擇時才提出規格。

We sell a lot of our spec earlier where the buyer can still go to our design studios, pick all the finishes that allow them to have a home that really fits their lifestyle and that design studio is highly accretive in margin to the company's margin. So when we're able to sell a spec a bit earlier, even if it's incentivized a little more, there can be some residual margin left after they get to that design studio.

我們提前銷售了很多規格房，買家仍然可以去我們的設計工作室，挑選所有裝修，讓他們擁有一個真正適合他們生活方式的家，而且設計工作室的利潤率對公司的利潤率有很大的增值。因此，當我們能夠提前出售某個規格時，即使激勵力度稍大一些，在他們到達設計工作室後仍會剩下一些剩餘利潤。

Trevor Allinson, Wolfe Research.

特雷弗·阿林森（Trevor Allinson），沃爾夫研究公司。

You talked about demand slowing throughout the quarter. I think that's not very surprising given what we've heard from other builders in the stock market volatility in April. So the question would be then, as we got into May here, the stock market obviously got a lot better. You had a pause on tariffs. Did you see demand get better as we went into May? And if so, could you put any numbers around that perhaps either relative to April or relative to 2Q, however you want to frame it?

您談到整個季度的需求都在放緩。考慮到我們從其他建築商那裡聽到的有關四月份股市波動的消息，我認為這並不令人意外。那麼問題是，隨著我們進入五月，股市顯然已經好轉了很多。你們暫停徵收關稅。進入五月份，您是否發現需求有所改善？如果是這樣，您能否提供一些數字，也許是相對於 4 月份，或者相對於第二季度，無論您想如何表達？

So it's very interesting. February was our first worst month. We sold 1.7 homes in the month of February, March and April were pretty consistent at 2.4 and 2.3 sales in those months in May is trending more like March and April now may seasonally have lower sales historically than March and April, but June and July, the next 2 months of this third quarter have better sales historically than May. So we seem to be trending right now into May, consistent what we saw in March and April, which were better than February.

所以這非常有趣。二月是我們最糟糕的第一個月。我們在二月售出了 1.7 套房屋，三月和四月的銷量基本上穩定在 2.4 套和 2.3 套，而五月份的趨勢更像三月和四月，從歷史上看，三月和四月的季節性銷量可能低於三月和四月，但從歷史上看，六月和七月，即第三季度接下來的兩個月的銷量要好於五月。因此，我們現在似乎正朝著 5 月的趨勢發展，與 3 月和 4 月的情況一致，而且 3 月和 4 月的情況比 2 月要好。

I think we and all the other builders have explained it well. And we all know it. The market is softer than we had all anticipated back in January. There's a lot of good and understandable reasons for that with consumer confidence being down with macroeconomic volatility with the stock market moving around quite a bit. There are buyers on the sidelines.

我認為我們和所有其他建設者都已經解釋得很好了。我們都知道這一點。市場比我們一月份預期的要疲軟。造成這種情況的原因有很多，例如消費者信心下降、宏觀經濟波動、股市波動較大。也有買家在場外觀望。

One of the reasons we are favoring pace over price is because, we believe this market is fairly inelastic and to throw more incentive at home sales, it's going to hurt your margin a lot more than is going to increase sales because the buyer is not responding over $5,000, $10,000, $15,000, $20,000 of more incentive, many of them just happen to be on the sidelines. But I am very pleased with the company's performance through the second quarter and into the beginning of the third quarter, considering the macro environment out there.

我們更重視速度而不是價格的原因之一是，我們認為這個市場相當缺乏彈性，如果在房屋銷售中投入更多激勵，那麼對利潤的損害將遠遠大於對銷售額的增加，因為買家不會對 5,000 美元、10,000 美元、15,000 美元、20,000 美元以上的激勵做出反應，他們只是在場的許多人。但考慮到宏觀環境，我對公司第二季和第三季初的表現非常滿意。

And I think it has to do with what we said earlier that over 70% of our business is move up and empty nester. Buyer is more affluent. We have 1/4 of our buyers paying all cash. Those go a mortgage are 70 LTV. They're moving up or they're moving down.

我認為這與我們之前所說的有關，即我們 70% 以上的業務是向上流動和空巢老人。買家比較富裕。我們有四分之一的買家全額支付現金。那些抵押貸款的 LTV 是 70。它們要么上升，要么下降。

They're moving on with their lives. They have equity in their homes. And so I think we're in a really good niche in the market, notwithstanding the fact that the market is a bit softer, but that's a long answer to your cadence of the quarter, but it we were surprised that February was worse, and we are -- May is where we thought it would be, which is consistent with what we've seen in March and April. June should be a bit better. July should be a bit better.

他們繼續他們的生活。他們擁有自己的房屋產權。因此，我認為我們在市場上處於一個非常好的利基市場，儘管市場有些疲軟，但這是對本季節奏的一個長篇回答，但我們對二月份的情況更糟感到驚訝，而五月份的情況與我們預想的一樣，這與我們在三月和四月看到的情況一致。六月應該會好一點。七月應該會好一點。

We are not anticipating an improvement in this market in any of the guidance we are giving. And as I said, I think we have adequately and conservatively budgeted the incentives necessary for the sell and settle spec inventory we have.

在我們給出的任何指導中，我們都沒有預期這個市場會有所改善。正如我所說，我認為我們已經充分且保守地預算了銷售和結算規格庫存所需的激勵措施。

As a second question, I guess it would be more of a follow-up on that and kind of double-clicking on some of the comments you just made there because it sounds like your April trends were we're pretty different from what we've heard from some other builders, a lot of other builders have made it has suggested that April was much softer. So do you think that is just purely for you guys, just a different profile for your consumer as you were just talking about? And then if that's the case, you mentioned earlier that you guys build across a pretty wide range of price points. Are you seeing big differences here more recently in demand relative to what you were seeing earlier in the year across those price points?

第二個問題，我想這更像是一個後續問題，有點像是重複您剛才發表的一些評論，因為聽起來您四月份的趨勢與我們從其他一些建築商那裡聽到的非常不同，很多其他建築商都表示四月份的趨勢要疲軟得多。那麼，您是否認為這僅僅針對你們而言，只是針對消費者的一種不同形象，正如你們剛才所說的？如果是這樣的話，您之前提到過，您們的產品價格範圍非常廣泛。與今年早些時候看到的情況相比，您最近在這些價格點上的需求是否有很大差異？

So I apologize if I was misunderstood. Overall, the results are still softer than our expectations. I was comparing -- you asked for a cadence, and I was comparing March and April February. We are not happy with 2.4 and 2.3 sales per month in the March -- in the month of March and April. But that's the market.

如果我被誤解了，我深感抱歉。總體而言，結果仍然低於我們的預期。我正在比較——你要求一個節奏，我正在比較三月和四月和二月。我們對 3 月（3 月和 4 月）每月 2.4 輛和 2.3 輛的銷售並不滿意。但這就是市場。

And so what others are describing. I think we would be consistent with that, but I just wanted to explain that we see February being best, March being next best and then April being the worst because of the cadence of what was going on with tariff conversations and macro issues. We sort of flattened out in March, and we stayed where we were. And so I just want you to understand that, that -- I want to put that perspective around it. It is a soft housing market.

其他人也正在描述這一點。我認為我們會堅持這一點，但我只是想解釋一下，我們認為二月是最好的，三月其次，四月是最糟糕的，這是因為關稅談判和宏觀問題的節奏。3 月我們的發展勢頭趨於平穩，並保持原狀。所以我只是想讓你明白這一點，我想從這個角度來看它。房地產市場疲軟。

We all know it, and we're doing pretty well in that market. And I think we're managing the business extraordinarily well.

我們都知道這一點，而且我們在該市場上做得很好。我認為我們的業務管理得非常好。

Sam Reid, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的薩姆·里德。

Wanted to drill down a bit on SG&A. Just looking at the implied Q4 guide, the math would suggest some fairly nice leverage I did anywhere from 30 to 40 bps year-over-year, which is really great kind of on the back of a few deleverage quarter. So just talk to kind of what's driving that leverage? Just any nuances with regard to kind of your community openings, marketing spend, would just love some more perspective on kind of how you're going to exit the year on SG&A.

想要深入了解銷售、一般和行政費用 (SG&A)。僅查看隱含的第四季度指南，計算結果就表明我的槓桿率相當不錯，同比增加了 30 到 40 個基點，這在幾個去槓桿季度的支撐下確實很棒。那麼，我們來談談是什麼推動了這種槓桿作用？關於您的社群開放、行銷支出等任何細微差別，我都希望能了解更多關於您今年如何在銷售、一般和行政費用上支出的詳情。

So I think the biggest issue, Sam, is that we're going to have a lot more revenue. We're going to have 235 million more -- $235 million more revenue than last year, and that's really what's driving a lot of the leverage.

所以我認為最大的問題是，山姆，我們將會有更多的收入。我們的收入將比去年增加 2.35 億美元，這才是推動槓桿的真正原因。

In Q4.

在第四季。

In Q4, I'm talking about Q4. Yes. We are very focused on SG&A. We're growing community count pretty significantly, particularly in that fourth quarter. And so there are pressures, but we've done a really nice job of managing costs.

在第四季度，我談論的是第四季。是的。我們非常關注銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A)。我們的社區數量正在顯著增長，尤其是在第四季度。因此存在壓力，但我們在成本管理方面做得非常好。

We're not immune from some of the inflationary pressures. I'll say, particularly on the health care front, it seems like something that's grown a little bit more than we'd like. but we're managing it very actively, and we have the flexibility to continue to manage it actively as the market evolves.

我們也無法免受一些通膨壓力的影響。我想說，特別是在醫療保健方面，它的成長似乎比我們想要的要快一些。但我們正在非常積極地管理它，並且隨著市場的發展，我們可以靈活地繼續積極地管理它。

And in addition to leverage, Sam, our variable sales costs component of SG&A came down a little bit. It was a little bit below what we expected in this quarter. In this past quarter, which was a little bit of a tailwind for us.

除了槓桿作用之外，山姆，我們的銷售、一般及行政費用中的變動銷售成本部分也略有下降。這比我們本季的預期略低一些。在過去的一個季度，這對我們來說是一個小小的順風。

Yes, absolutely. No, that helps. And then maybe just switching gears here. I realize you guys are not offering up a '26 outlook today. You're probably knocking in for another let's call it, 2 quarters other than to say, it does sound like community count is going to be up year-over-year in 2026.

是的，絕對是。不，這有幫助。然後也許只是在這裡轉換一下話題。我知道你們今天並沒有提出 26 年的展望。您可能還需要再敲兩個季度，但聽起來 2026 年社區數量確實會比去年同期增加。

I said, I wanted to maybe double-click a little bit on what delivery in 2026 could look like? And the basis for that is the backlog is a little smaller this year than it was last year. I would love to kind of get your sense as to sort of kind of what a good base case assumption for 2026 deliveries could be in the context of that backlog back?

我說，我想稍微看一下 2026 年的交付情況會是什麼樣子？其基礎是今年的積壓量比去年略少。我很想聽聽您的意見，在積壓訂單的背景下，2026 年交付的良好基準假設是什麼？

I appreciate you asking and trying to get us to give some guide on 26. We're not prepared to do that right now. That is usually the highlight of the December call. But I will -- with that, I will say that the average price of homes in '26 will be higher. That's obvious from the last couple of quarters of sales and where that average price is.

感謝您提出詢問並試圖讓我們在 26 日提供一些指導。我們現在還沒準備好這麼做。這通常是 12 月電話會議的亮點。但我會——我會說 26 年的平均房價會更高。從過去幾季的銷售情況和平均價格可以明顯看出這一點。

We are focused and know we need a strong backlog heading into 2026. We will have a continuing spec strategy that we know is important. As we head into 2026, we will continue to be mindful of market conditions on a very local level as to where we start spec and where we are more cautious, but we are well aware and embrace the importance of our spec strategy.

我們非常專注，並且知道我們需要在 2026 年之前累積大量訂單。我們將製定一個持續的規格策略，我們知道這很重要。當我們邁入 2026 年時，我們將繼續關注非常本地化的市場狀況，以確定從哪裡開始投機以及在哪些方面更加謹慎，但我們非常清楚並接受投機策略的重要性。

And we will have, as I said in my prepared comments, around 10% community count growth in 2026. So I'm not giving you any numbers, but I will give you a bit of that background and flavor. When we open communities, we often get kind of a boost to sales as there's some pent-up demand for those communities. And we can moderate that if we want or let it run if we want. So that's part of the strategy we would deploy to.

正如我在準備好的評論中所說，到 2026 年，我們的社群數量將增加 10% 左右。所以我不會給你任何數字，但我會給你一些背景和細節。當我們開放社區時，我們的銷售通常會有所提升，因為這些社區存在一些被壓抑的需求。如果我們願意，我們可以對其進行調節，或者如果我們願意，我們可以讓它繼續運作。這是我們將要實施的策略的一部分。

Alan Ratner, Zelman & Associates.

艾倫·拉特納（Alan Ratner），澤爾曼與合夥人公司。

Good morning nice quarter, and thanks for all the details. So I'd love -- I appreciate the monthly cadence data, and I was hoping just to get a little bit more qualitative kind of commentary on, how do things progress for you guys with the moving pieces in your business, obviously, your buyer is probably more tied to the stock market volatility than other builders and April was obviously a very challenging month for the stock market. The last few weeks, the markets rebounded. And I'm just curious, it doesn't sound like your order date has necessarily picked up meaningfully. But have you seen any green shoots either in traffic or just kind of the commentary from your salespeople that the stabilization in the stock market is having any positive leading indicators on your buyer pool?

早上好，這是一個愉快的季度，感謝您提供的所有詳細資訊。所以我很樂意——我很欣賞每月的節奏數據，我希望得到一些更定性的評論，關於你們業務中的變化部分進展如何，顯然，你們的買家可能比其他建築商更受股市波動的影響，而四月顯然是股市非常具有挑戰性的一個月。過去幾週，市場出現反彈。我只是好奇，聽起來您的訂單日期並不一定會有意義地增加。但是，您是否看到客流量出現任何復甦跡象，或者您的銷售人員是否評論說股市穩定對您的買家群體有任何積極的領先指標？

Yes, Alan, it's modest. It's too early to tell. There's no question confidence, consumer confidence, I think it's the #1 leading indicator at least for tolls business at the more affluent end, do rates matter, of course, they do. We celebrate a 5, 7, 8, 30-year no-point mortgage, of course, we will. But a little tick in mortgage rate doesn't affect our client as much for the reasons we've talked about 25% all cash, those that get a mortgage are at 70%.

是的，艾倫，這很謙虛。現在下結論還為時過早。毫無疑問，信心、消費者信心，我認為這是第一大領先指標，至少對於較富裕的收費業務而言，費率重要嗎？當然重要。我們慶祝 5 年、7 年、8 年、30 年無點抵押貸款，當然我們會的。但是抵押貸款利率的小幅上漲並不會對我們的客戶造成太大影響，原因我們已​​經討論過了，25% 的全現金貸款，而獲得抵押貸款的利率則是 70%。

We know a good part of the 30% of first-time buyers we sell to are getting some help from mom and dad with generational wealth transfer.

我們知道，我們銷售的 30% 首次購屋者中，很大一部分人得到了父母在代際財富轉移方面的幫助。

And so that's going to take a mortgage payment down because they're probably getting able to put a bigger down payment on the house, thanks to mom and dad. So while interest rates are important, you're right that the stock market overall confidence some positive news out of DC about resolving some of the tariff conflict, all of that matters, and it can matter in a big way. And we have significant under supply of homes in this country. We have terrific demographics that are a tailwind for future growth. And we've all seen it.

這樣就可以減少抵押貸款支付，因為他們可能能夠在房子上支付更大的首付，這要感謝父母。因此，雖然利率很重要，但您說得對，股市整體上對華盛頓傳出的一些關於解決部分關稅衝突的積極消息充滿信心，所有這些都很重要，而且可能產生重大影響。我們國家的住房供應嚴重不足。我們擁有極好的人口統計數據，這對未來的成長來說是順風。我們都看到了。

I've been doing this 35 years. When this turns --

我已經做這份工作35年了。當這一切轉變--

Exactly 35.

正好35。

Thank you, Martin. I know it's my 60th call. I didn't know it was my 30-50 anniversary today. But we've all seen it. When this market turns with those tailwinds and with so many people on the sidelines just waiting to feel better so they can move on with their lives, look out because it's going to come.

謝謝你，馬丁。我知道這是我第60次打電話。我不知道今天是我 30-50 歲紀念日。但我們都看到了。當這個市場順風而動，而許多人卻在場外等待感覺好轉，以便繼續他們的生活時，要小心，因為它即將到來。

But I can't tell you in the last two, three, four weeks as the market -- the stock market has stabilized that we've seen anything definitive. There's just some modest conversations and color that we get out of sales, the traffic is up, the quality of traffic is up. We've had a few openings lately of new communities with significant interest at the opening.

但我無法告訴你，在過去的兩週、三週、四周裡，隨著市場——股市已經穩定下來，我們已經看到了任何確定的消息。我們從銷售中獲得了一些適度的對話和色彩，流量上升了，流量品質也上升了。我們最近開放了一些新社區，引起了人們的極大興趣。

We've had a couple where we've gone back to best and final offer, where we let people bid up the 5 houses that we're offering because there's so much interest. That's the exception. I don't need that to be a headline right now. But we'll keep an eye on it. We're not heading into the spring season.

我們已經有過幾次回到最佳和最終報價的情況，因為人們對我們提供的 5 套房子很感興趣，所以我們讓人們提高報價。這是例外。我現在不需要將其作為頭條新聞。但我們會密切關注。我們還沒有進入春季。

We're heading into the summer. So it's a little bit different time. It is a good time to sell finished spec. Because buyers want to get into their new home by the school year to not disrupt the kids. And so you need to buy a house in the next couple of months.

我們即將進入夏季。所以這是一個稍微不同的時間。現在是出售成品規格的好時機。因為買家希望在開學前搬進新家，以免打擾孩子。所以你需要在接下來的幾個月買一棟房子。

to get that out to close by the end of August.

並在八月底之前完成這項工作。

And so -- and we have timed that appropriately. We're -- we know that you want to bring finish spec into the market at the right time when buyers want it, which is that generally the summer months. So we'll have to see, again, another long answer that, no, I don't see anything definitive yet, but I wouldn't be surprised if it comes if there's more stabilization in the macro market.

所以——我們的時間安排得很恰當。我們—我們知道您希望在買家需要的時候將成品規格引入市場，通常是在夏季。因此，我們必須再次看到另一個長答案，不，我還沒有看到任何明確的答案，但如果宏觀市場更加穩定，我不會感到驚訝。

Got it. Appreciate the other commentary there. Second question, there's obviously a lot of headlines associated with immigration and what's going on there. And I was hoping you could just refresh my memory, what percentage of your buyers are far national, I guess, specifically kind of H1B Visa holders? And have you seen any changes in demand among that cohort of buyers year-to-date?

知道了。感謝那裡的其他評論。第二個問題，顯然有很多頭條新聞與移民問題及其發生的事情有關。我希望您能提醒我一下，您的買家中有多少比例是來自全國各地的，特別是 H1B 簽證持有者？今年迄今為止，您是否發現該群體買家的需求有任何變化？

It's less than 5% of for the first part of your question. And no, we haven't seen any change over the -- since the new year. The Chinese buyer in particular, and again, that may be a Chinese national, maybe Chinese American, but that buyer in particular, is still very strong for us in California.

它不到你問題第一部分的 5%。不，自新年以來我們沒有看到任何變化。尤其是中國買家，他們可能是中國人，也可能是美籍華人，但對我們加州來說，這樣的買家仍然非常強大。

Alex Barron, Housing Research Center.

住房研究中心的亞歷克斯·巴倫。

Yes. I wanted to focus in on your comments about having more than enough expects to hit your numbers in the fourth quarter. I was kind of going back several years now. It looks like your deliveries have exceeded your orders by quite a bit as your backlog has been coming down from a peak of 11,700 or so to 5,000 now. So can you explain that dynamic?

是的。我想重點談談您關於在第四季度有足夠的預期來實現業績的評論。我感覺自己回到了幾年前。看起來你們的交貨量已經遠遠超過了訂單量，因為你們的積壓訂單量已經從高峰期的 11,700 份左右下降到了現在的 5,000 份。那你能解釋一下這種動態嗎？

I mean how many total homes, I guess, are sort of not in the backlog that are under construction, I guess, back to help us kind of understand that dynamic a little bit better.

我的意思是，我猜有多少棟房屋不在積壓的建設中，我想，這可以幫助我們更好地理解這種動態。

Sure. Alex, I think over that period of time, you've seen us move from a 90% build-to-order business to a 50%, 55% spec business where we sit currently. So the backlog coming down is not unplanned. We opened the call mentioning that we had 1,028 completed specs that could be sold and settled in the next 6 months. We have another what was the number, 2,400 specs at various stages of construction.

當然。亞歷克斯，我想在那段時間裡，你已經看到我們從 90% 的按訂單生產業務轉變為目前的 50%、55% 的規格業務。因此，積壓訂單的減少並非沒有計劃。我們在電話會議開始時提到，我們有 1,028 個已完成的規格，可以在未來 6 個月內出售和結算。我們還有另外 2,400 個處於不同施工階段的規格。

And so we will have more than enough completed specs by the end of the year. to deliver the roughly 900 additional sell and settle specs on top of 1,000 cell and settle specs to hit our delivery guidance factoring in roughly of 4,500 homes coming out of backlog as well.

因此，到今年年底，我們將有足夠多的已完成規格，以便在 1,000 個單元和結算規格的基礎上再交付大約 900 個額外的銷售和結算規格，以達到我們的交付指導，其中還考慮到大約 4,500 個積壓房屋。

Got it. And then those --

知道了。然後那些--

2,000, we have another 2,000 prefooting permits polled homes that we will begin production of a certain percentage of depending on how the market evolves.

2,000，我們還有另外 2,000 個已獲得預建許可證的房屋，我們將根據市場發展開始生產一定比例的房屋。

And that's the bucket that we have slowed and are making very local decisions on based on market conditions.

我們已經放慢了這一步伐，並根據市場情況做出了非常本地化的決策。

Got it. And so when would you expect, I guess, your backlog to sort of hit bottom in a sense and start trending back up? Is it kind of towards the end of this year?

知道了。那麼，我猜您預計什麼時候您的積壓訂單會觸底並開始回升？是不是快到今年底了？

Well, with the slowing of spec starts, I don't know if it's the end of the year exactly, but yes, there will be a point where you will -- you should see that go up. Again, it's all -- it's market conditions driven, right? But we have recently seen a bit of a move back towards a desire for build to order versus faster delivery of a spec home. And I think that's for a couple of reasons. When you have a bit of a softer market and higher rates, there are buyers that say, this is my dream home.

好吧，隨著規格啟動的放緩，我不知道這是否正好是年底，但是是的，你會在某個時候看到它上升。再說一遍，這一切都是由市場條件驅動的，對嗎？但我們最近發現，人們越來越傾向於按訂單建造房屋，而不是更快地交付樣品屋。我認為這有幾個原因。當市場稍微疲軟且利率上升時，有些買家會說，這是我夢想中的家。

I want to design it to exactly my taste. I want to be able to customize it. and I'm willing to wait. It may take me a little longer to sell my home.

我想按照我的品味來設計它。我希望能夠定制它。而我願意等待。我可能需要更長的時間才能賣掉我的房子。

Maybe the rates come down when I have to lock in 60 days before the home is delivered. And I sort of like the idea and the comfort of this move occurring in 12 months to my Dream Home versus 2, 3, 4 months to spec inventory. And we are feeling a bit of that now, which we are encouraged by, frankly, because our special sauce is choice, and we talked about the higher margin in build to order. It's not a dramatic change, but we are beginning to see out in the field, a bit of a leaning preference towards the build-to-order versus the spec.

也許當我必須在房屋交付前 60 天鎖定時，利率就會下降。我很喜歡這個想法，而且在 12 個月內就能搬到我的夢想之家，而不是花 2、3、4 個月的時間搬到規格庫存房，這讓我感到很舒服。現在我們感受到了一點這種感覺，坦白說，這讓我們感到鼓舞，因為我們的特色是精選的，而且我們談到了按訂單生產的更高利潤率。這不是一個戲劇性的變化，但我們開始看到，在這個領域，人們有點傾向於按訂單生產，而不是按規格生產。

Buck Horne, Raymond James.

巴克霍恩、雷蒙詹姆斯。

I wanted to add a little bit I want to ask a little bit about the land spend in the quarter. It seemed like it was one of the higher quarterly amounts you guys have spent in recent memory, added some additional loss. Was there any particular land deal or anything noticeable that kind of drove the surge? And should we have any other takeaways in terms of what does that mean about your confidence about the land market?

我想補充一點，我想問一下本季的土地支出狀況。這似乎是你們近期記憶中花費較高的季度金額之一，增加了一些額外的損失。是否有任何特定的土地交易或任何值得注意的事件推動了這種增長？關於您對土地市場的信心，我們是否有其他看法？

Yes. So our land spend in the second quarter was $362 million compared to $360 million in the first quarter. So we have spent $763 million for the full months. I think it may ratchet up in the back end of the year, but a lot of that depends on the timing of deals as they closed. There was nothing in particular in the second quarter that drove the number to be consistent with the first quarter.

是的。因此，我們第二季的土地支出為 3.62 億美元，而第一季為 3.6 億美元。因此，我們整整幾個月花了 7.63 億美元。我認為它可能會在年底上升，但這很大程度上取決於交易完成的時間。第二季並沒有什麼特別的因素導致這個數字與第一季保持一致。

Yes. I think for us to move forward and close on the ground in this environment means it's still pencils. We may have been able to renegotiate price or take down terms. We're land banking more than we ever have, new deals coming in. I think we're at 40%, guys.

是的。我認為，對我們來說，在這種環境下繼續前進並接近目標意味著我們仍然需要用鉛筆。我們也許能夠重新協商價格或降低條款。我們的土地儲備比以往任何時候都多，新的交易不斷湧現。夥計們，我想我們已經達到 40% 了。

Is that sort of number?

是那種數字嗎？

Of the new -- the new deals.

關於新的—新的交易。

The new deals coming in are being land banks. But our comments about due to softer market conditions, we're being more cautious, and we expect land spend to probably come down to '26. I wouldn't read anything into the last few quarters or the next few quarters in terms of land spend because those deals are baked and they still work. And so we're moving forward maybe on the same terms or maybe on modified terms but it's really the next deal contracted for, which may have 2 or 3 years of entitlements ahead of it or it may have a closing in 6 months. It all depends on what the land deal is.

新達成的交易都是土地儲備。但我們表示，由於市場條件疲軟，我們更加謹慎，預計土地支出可能會降至 26%。我不會對過去幾季或未來幾季的土地支出做出任何解讀，因為這些交易已經完成並且仍然有效。因此，我們可能會按照相同的條款或修改後的條款繼續推進，但這實際上是簽訂的下一筆交易，該交易可能有 2 或 3 年的權利，也可能會在 6 個月內完成。這一切都取決於土地交易的具體內容。

But those are the ones that over time, at least at the moment, the land spend may come down a bit.

但隨著時間的推移，至少目前，土地支出可能會下降。

But if this market improves, then that may also change and we may find ourselves buying more ground. But we're very happy to have the 80,000 plus or minus locks that we own and control. We're very proud of moving more and more lots to the option category and that gives us great flexibility and conservatism when it comes to the next deal because our land bank is in such great shape.

但如果市場好轉，情況可能也會發生變化，我們可能會發現自己買了更多的土地。但我們很高興擁有並控制著 80,000 多把鎖。我們非常自豪能夠將越來越多的地塊轉移到選擇類別，這為我們在下一筆交易時提供了極大的靈活性和保守性，因為我們的土地儲備狀況非常好。

Got it. Got it. Very helpful clarification. And just with a little bit of timing. Can you just walk us through geographically how the markets were shaping up versus your expectations?

知道了。知道了。非常有用的澄清。只需稍加把握時間即可。您能否從地理位置向我們介紹市場與您的預期相比如何發展？

Any standout surprises to you in terms of how things progressed during the quarter, either with economic sensitivity, either strength or downside or upside?

就本季的情況進展而言，有沒有什麼讓您感到意外的方面，無論是經濟敏感性、強勢、下行還是上行？

Sure. So the better markets were New Jersey, Pennsylvania and New York. It did well, D.C. Metro, Charlotte and Atlanta. So that's just the Eastern Seaboard did well.

當然。因此，較好的市場是新澤西州、賓州和紐約州。華盛頓地鐵、夏洛特和亞特蘭大的表現都不錯。所以這只是東海岸表現良好。

out West, Las Vegas, Denver, Boise, Idaho did well and all of California did well. softer spots, Pacific Northwest, for us, that's Greater Seattle and Portland, Oregon, most of Florida, parts of Texas and Phoenix continue to be on the softer side of our business.

在西部，拉斯維加斯、丹佛、博伊西、愛達荷州表現良好，整個加州表現也都很好。對我們來說，較軟的地區，太平洋西北地區，也就是大西雅圖和俄勒岡州波特蘭、佛羅裡達州大部分地區、德克薩斯州部分地區和鳳凰城繼續處於業務較軟的一面。

And ladies and gentlemen, with that, we'll be concluding today's question-and-answer session. At this point, I'd like to turn the floor back over to management for any closing remarks.

女士們、先生們，今天的問答環節就到此結束。現在，我想將發言權交還給管理階層，請他們做最後發言。

Jamie, thank you very much. You've been terrific. Thanks, everybody, for your interest and support. We are always here to answer any follow-up questions you may have. Have a wonderful Memorial Day weekend and summer.

傑米，非常感謝。你表現得太棒了。謝謝大家的關注與支持。我們隨時準備好解答您可能遇到的任何後續問題。祝您陣亡將士紀念日週末和夏天愉快。

And we'll see you soon. Thanks much. Take care.

我們很快就會見到你。非常感謝。小心。

And ladies and gentlemen, with that, we'll conclude today's conference call. We do thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議就到此結束。我們非常感謝您參加今天的演講。現在您可以斷開線路了。