泰瑞達 (TER) 2022 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Q1 2022 Teradyne, Inc. Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Mr. Andy Blanchard. Mr. Blanchard, the floor is yours.

各位早安，感謝您稍候。歡迎參加 Teradyne, Inc. 2022 年第一季（Q1 2022）財報電話會議。（接線員指示）請注意，今天的會議將被錄音。（接線員指示）現在我想把會議交給今天的主講人 Andy Blanchard 先生。Blanchard 先生，請開始。

Thank you, Chris. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our discussion of Teradyne's most recent financial results. I'm joined this morning by our CEO, Mark Jagiela; and our CFO, Sanjay Mehta. Following our opening remarks, we'll provide details of our performance for 2022's first quarter, along with our outlook for the second quarter of 2022.

謝謝你，Chris。各位早安，歡迎參加我們對 Teradyne 最新財務結果的討論。今天早上與我一同出席的有我們的執行長 Mark Jagiela，以及財務長 Sanjay Mehta。在開場致詞之後，我們將提供 2022 年第一季的表現細節，並說明我們對 2022 年第二季的展望。

The press release containing our first quarter results was issued last evening. We're providing slides on the investor page of the website that may be helpful to you in following the discussion. Replays of this call will be available via the same page after the call ends.

包含第一季結果的新聞稿已於昨晚發布。我們在網站的投資人頁面提供投影片，可能有助於您跟上討論內容。本次電話會議結束後，亦可透過同一頁面收聽重播。

The matters that we discuss today will include forward-looking statements that involve risk factors that could cause Teradyne's results to differ materially from management's current expectations. We encourage you to review the safe harbor statement contained in our earnings release as well as our most recent SEC filings. Additionally, those forward-looking statements are made as of today, and we take no obligation to update them as a result of developments occurring after this call.

我們今天討論的事項將包含前瞻性陳述，涉及可能導致 Teradyne 的結果與管理層目前預期出現重大差異的風險因素。我們鼓勵您查閱財報新聞稿中的安全港聲明，以及我們最近向 SEC 提交的文件。此外，這些前瞻性陳述係以今日為準，我們不承擔因本次電話會議後發生之事態發展而更新之義務。

During today's call, we'll make reference to non-GAAP financial measures. We've posted additional information concerning those non-GAAP financial measures, including reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure where available on the Investor page of the website.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將提及非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。我們已在網站的投資人頁面張貼與這些非 GAAP 財務衡量指標相關的補充資訊，包括在可取得的情況下，與最直接可比的 GAAP 財務衡量指標之調節表。

Looking ahead, between now and our next earnings call, Teradyne expects to participate in technology or industrial-focused investor conferences hosted by Cowen, Luke Capital, Bank of America, Stifel and Bernstein.

展望未來，在下一次財報電話會議之前，Teradyne 預期將參與由 Cowen、Luke Capital、Bank of America、Stifel 與 Bernstein 主辦、以科技或工業為主題的投資人研討會。

Now let's get on with the rest of the agenda. First, Mark will comment on our recent results and the market conditions as we enter the new quarter. Sanjay will then offer more details on our quarterly results, along with our guidance for the second quarter. We'll then answer your questions, and this call is scheduled for 1 hour. Mark?

現在我們繼續進行其餘議程。首先，Mark 將就我們近期結果以及進入新季度時的市場狀況發表評論。接著 Sanjay 將提供更多季度結果細節，並給出第二季的財測指引。之後我們將回答各位的問題，本次電話會議預計為 1 小時。Mark？

Hello, everyone, and thanks for joining us. Today, I'll summarize our Q1 results, review current market conditions, and provide an update on Q2 and the full year. Sanjay will then take you through the financial details, including our outlook for the second quarter.

各位好，感謝加入。今天我將總結我們第一季的結果，回顧目前市場狀況，並更新第二季與全年情況。接著 Sanjay 會帶各位了解財務細節，包括我們對第二季的展望。

The first quarter played out as expected from a financial perspective. We delivered results toward the high end of guidance as we cleared a few more supply chain bottlenecks than expected.

第一季從財務角度來看如預期發展。我們的結果落在指引區間的高端，因為我們清除了比預期更多的供應鏈瓶頸。

As outlined in January, we expect revenue growth throughout the year as we build toward 2023 and the transition to 3-nanometer. Consequently, we expect roughly 7% to 9% sequential quarter-over-quarter growth throughout the year.

如同 1 月所述，隨著我們為 2023 年以及轉向 3 奈米做準備，我們預期全年營收將持續成長。因此，我們預期全年各季將呈現約 7% 至 9% 的季對季（QoQ）成長。

Since January, we've seen incremental strengthening of demand for Semi Test and wireless in the areas of automotive, memory, WiFi 6c and 7. On the other hand, for the first time in 2 years, supply chain challenges are materially impacting our Semi Test shipments. This is reflected in our wider-than-normal revenue guidance range in Q2. Sanjay will describe these details shortly.

自 1 月以來，我們看到半導體測試（Semi Test）與無線領域在車用、記憶體、WiFi 6c 與 7 等方面的需求進一步增強。另一方面，兩年來首次，供應鏈挑戰正對我們的半導體測試出貨造成實質影響。這反映在我們第二季較以往更寬的營收指引區間中。Sanjay 稍後將說明這些細節。

From a full year market perspective, we estimate the SOC market is trending to the high end of the $4.6 billion to $5 billion range we discussed in January. Strengthening automotive test demand is one element driving the market increase as both per car content and unit complexity are growing quickly. The accelerating move to electric vehicles is a key part of this increase with EVs growing at a 20% plus CAGR while the chip content of these vehicles is running more than 3x compared to gas-powered cars.

從全年市場角度來看，我們估計 SoC 市場正朝向我們在 1 月討論的 46 億至 50 億美元區間的高端發展。車用測試需求增強是推升市場的一項因素，因為每輛車的晶片含量與單位複雜度都在快速提升。電動車加速普及是這項增長的關鍵部分：電動車以 20% 以上的年複合成長率（CAGR）成長，而這些車輛的晶片含量相較燃油車高出 3 倍以上。

This year, we are seeing particular strength emerging in high-end automotive ADAS processors. Complexity of these processors is approaching the level of high-end cellphone applications processors. Additionally, high-end ADAS processors have about a 3 to 4x longer test time due to the more stringent test requirements for devices used in automotive safety applications. Furthermore, there are usually multiple ADAS processors per vehicle, amplifying the unit demand. Combining the enhanced EV semiconductor content with these ADAS trends, we expect the automotive test market to outgrow the core test market for the receivable future.

今年，我們看到高階車用 ADAS 處理器展現出特別強勁的動能。這些處理器的複雜度正接近高階手機應用處理器的水準。此外，由於車用安全應用裝置的測試要求更嚴格，高階 ADAS 處理器的測試時間約長 3 到 4 倍。再者，每輛車通常有多顆 ADAS 處理器，進一步放大單位需求。結合電動車半導體含量提升與這些 ADAS 趨勢，我們預期車用測試市場在可預見的未來將成長快於核心測試市場。

Another area of growth is in hyperscaler silicon development. While the material test revenue impact from these complex chips is in 2023 and beyond, both the complexity and pace of development is accelerating. This has been a focused investment area for us over the last 18 months, and we are pleased with our win work -- sorry, pleased with our win rate for these new opportunities.

另一個成長領域是超大規模業者（hyperscaler）的矽晶片開發。雖然這些複雜晶片對測試營收的實質影響將在 2023 年及之後顯現，但其複雜度與開發速度都在加快。過去 18 個月這一直是我們重點投資的領域，我們對於在這些新機會上的得標表現——抱歉，對於我們在這些新機會上的得標率感到滿意。

Shifting to the memory test market. Our market size estimate for the year remains at about $1 billion. But within that, we have seen the DRAM demand soften a bit, offset by an increase in flash demand.

轉向記憶體測試市場。我們對今年的市場規模估計仍約為 10 億美元。但在其中，我們看到 DRAM 需求略為走弱，並由快閃記憶體（flash）需求增加所抵銷。

In System Test, defense and aerospace and production board test groups collectively grew over 30% from Q1 '21 on strong automotive board test demand and program buying in defense and aerospace.

在系統測試（System Test）方面，國防與航太以及生產板測試（production board test）團隊合計較 2021 年第一季成長超過 30%，主要受惠於強勁的車用板測試需求，以及國防與航太的專案採購。

In Storage Test, sales were down 28% as expected versus 1Q of '21. Customer concentration here causes this lumpiness, but the long-term complexity and unit demand drivers remain in place.

在儲存測試（Storage Test）方面，銷售額如預期較 2021 年第一季下滑 28%。此處的客戶集中度造成業績波動，但長期的複雜度與單位需求驅動因素仍然存在。

Our wireless test business at LitePoint remains very healthy with sales growing 26% year-over-year in Q1. Strong demand for emerging WiFi 6c and WiFi 7 standards is driving this growth and the outlook for the year.

我們在 LitePoint 的無線測試業務仍非常健康，第一季銷售額年增 26%。對新興 WiFi 6c 與 WiFi 7 標準的強勁需求正推動這項成長以及今年的展望。

LifePoint's strategy delivers high throughput, easy-to-deploy test solutions for the full array of wireless standards. Our chipset test library approach to programming allows customers to shorten their time to market and achieve superior test economics for these emerging standards.

LitePoint 的策略是為完整的無線標準組合提供高吞吐量、易於部署的測試解決方案。我們以晶片組測試函式庫（chipset test library）的方式進行程式設計，讓客戶能縮短上市時間，並在這些新興標準上達成更優異的測試經濟效益。

Moving to Industrial Automation. Group revenues were up 29% from Q1 of last year. Demand in North America was particularly strong with 55% growth year-over-year. While we cleared some supply issues at UR rate in the quarter, IA shipments overall continue to be constrained by material shortages.

接著談工業自動化（Industrial Automation）。該事業群營收較去年第一季成長 29%。北美需求特別強勁，年增 55%。雖然本季我們在 UR 端清除了一些供應問題，但整體 IA 出貨仍持續受到材料短缺的限制。

Globally, the PMIs for the U.S. and Europe remain over 50, while in China, the PMI dipped below 50 in March. We are closely watching to confirm that China data point as a short-term COVID lockdown issue and anticipate recovery in 3Q and 4Q.

在全球方面，美國與歐洲的採購經理人指數（PMI）仍維持在 50 以上，而中國的 PMI 在 3 月跌破 50。我們正密切觀察，以確認中國這項數據點是否屬於短期的 COVID 封控因素，並預期在第三季與第四季復甦。

Similarly, the conflict in Ukraine slowed EU demand in March and has the potential to impact the European industrial activity throughout the year. While we expect these constraints to continue in 2Q, we do expect IA growth rates to increase through the year as supply constraints ease, AutoGuide begins to ramp shipments and UR and MiR see increased growth on China and EU recovery.

同樣地，烏克蘭衝突在 3 月放緩了歐盟需求，並可能在全年影響歐洲工業活動。雖然我們預期這些限制在第二季仍將持續，但隨著供應限制緩解、AutoGuide 開始提升出貨，以及 UR 與 MiR 受惠於中國與歐盟復甦而加速成長，我們確實預期 IA 的成長率將在全年逐步提高。

At UR, our OEM welding application continued on a tear with 1Q growth of over 100% compared to 1 year ago. The U.S. geography was also strong with over 50% year-over-year growth. Our UR+ program of plug-and-play applications for our cobots is passing in the 400-product milestone this quarter. Each of these applications leverages an independent third-party developer's knowledge of a specific market vertical to solve a specific problem. This application is then certified by UR so our customers can deploy automation solutions quickly by spending less time on programming and integration work. The resulting network effect is a powerful differentiator for us, and we continue to invest to support this growing army of developers.

在 UR 方面，我們的 OEM 焊接應用持續高速成長，第一季較一年前成長超過 100%。美國地區同樣強勁，年增超過 50%。我們針對協作機器人（cobots）的 UR+ 即插即用應用計畫，本季將突破 400 項產品里程碑。每一項應用都運用獨立第三方開發者對特定垂直市場的知識，以解決特定問題。之後該應用會由 UR 認證，使客戶能快速部署自動化解決方案，並在程式設計與整合工作上花更少時間。由此產生的網路效應是我們強而有力的差異化優勢，我們也持續投資以支持這支日益壯大的開發者大軍。

At MiR, we are seeing two positive trends emerge as we grow the business. First, we are seeing a steady movement toward higher payload, higher ASP AMRs. In 2020, about 10% of our sales were above the 500-kilogram payload range. This moved to 22% in 2021. And in Q1, we saw over 30% of our sales in this class. This represents a broadening of AMR applications to a wider range of material handling tests and manufacturing and logistics.

在 MiR 方面，隨著我們擴大業務規模，我們看到兩個正向趨勢浮現。第一，我們看到市場穩定轉向更高載重、較高平均售價（ASP）的自主移動機器人（AMR）。在 2020 年，我們約 10% 的銷售來自載重 500 公斤以上的產品級距；2021 年提升至 22%；而在第一季，我們看到超過 30% 的銷售落在此級距。這代表 AMR 的應用正擴展到更廣泛的物料搬運任務，以及製造與物流領域。

Second, we are seeing the trend toward both growing fleet sizes and increasing multifactory deployments at major customers. Within these environments, our fleet management software is an increasingly important product differentiator. These larger customers also have demanding uptime and support requirements, which also plays to our strength as MiR is leveraging Teradyne's global support and large account experience to meet these customers' needs in ways that smaller players can't.

第二，我們看到主要客戶同時朝向車隊規模擴大以及多工廠部署增加的趨勢。在這些環境中，我們的車隊管理軟體正成為越來越重要的產品差異化因素。這些大型客戶也有嚴苛的正常運行時間（uptime）與支援需求，這同樣發揮了我們的優勢，因為 MiR 正在運用 Teradyne 的全球支援能力與大型客戶服務經驗，以小型競爭者無法做到的方式滿足這些客戶需求。

With one quarter of 2022 in the books, the year is unfolding roughly in line with our forecast. The incrementally stronger demand in test is being balanced by supply constraints. Longer term, I am encouraged by the continued strength in WFE investments, which fuels our growth; the progress from industry leaders on 3-nanometer technology; the growing opportunity for our human scale automation projects and the resilience of Teradyne's global team and our partners that are enabling us to muscle through some very tough supply and operational constraints.

2022 年已過一季，整體發展大致符合我們的預測。測試業務需求的邊際走強，正被供應限制所抵銷。長期而言，我對晶圓製造設備（WFE）投資持續強勁所帶動的成長感到鼓舞；也對產業領導者在 3 奈米技術上的進展、我們在人本尺度自動化（human scale automation）專案上日益增加的機會，以及 Teradyne 全球團隊與合作夥伴的韌性（使我們得以挺過一些非常嚴峻的供應與營運限制）感到振奮。

And before closing, I want to note an important milestone at Teradyne. Mike Bradley will retire from our Board of Directors in May. Mike's Teradyne career spans over 40 years, including 10 years as CEO, helping shape Teradyne's products, business model and culture. Mike has had an incredible impact on our company, our customers and shareholders, and I'm especially appreciative for the help he's given me along the way. Thanks, Mike.

在結束之前，我想提及 Teradyne 的一項重要里程碑。Mike Bradley 將於 5 月自董事會退休。Mike 在 Teradyne 的職涯橫跨 40 多年，其中包含 10 年擔任執行長（CEO），協助塑造 Teradyne 的產品、商業模式與文化。Mike 對我們公司、客戶與股東帶來了極其深遠的影響，我也特別感謝他一路以來對我的協助。謝謝你，Mike。

Sanjay will now take you through the financial details. Sanjay?

接下來 Sanjay 將帶各位了解財務細節。Sanjay？

Thank you, Mark. Good morning, everyone. Today, I'll provide details on our Q1 results, offer additional color on the operating environment, including the supply line update and describe our Q2 outlook.

謝謝你，Mark。各位早安。今天我將說明我們第一季（Q1）的業績細節，補充營運環境的更多背景（包括供應鏈最新狀況），並說明我們對第二季（Q2）的展望。

Now to Q1. First quarter sales were $755 million, with non-GAAP EPS of $0.98. Non-GAAP gross margins were 60.2% and our non-GAAP operating expenses were $248 million, slightly below our guidance due to slower-than-planned hiring. Non-GAAP operating profit rate was 27.4%. We had no 10% customers in the quarter. The tax rate, excluding discrete items for the quarter was 16% on both a GAAP and non-GAAP basis. Please note, you should now use this for the full year tax rate as well.

接著看 Q1。第一季營收為 7.55 億美元，非 GAAP 每股盈餘（EPS）為 0.98 美元。非 GAAP 毛利率為 60.2%，非 GAAP 營運費用為 2.48 億美元，由於招募進度慢於原先規劃，略低於我們的指引。非 GAAP 營業利益率為 27.4%。本季沒有任何單一客戶占比達 10%。本季稅率（不含一次性項目）在 GAAP 與非 GAAP 基礎上皆為 16%。請注意，全年稅率也應以此為準。

Looking at the results from a business unit perspective. Semi Test revenue of $482 million was down 9% from Q1 '21 as expected. SOC revenue was $387 million driven by strength and mobility in compute end markets. Memory revenue was $96 million, driven by flash final test and DRAM wafer sort. System Test group had revenue of $119 million, which was down 11% year-over-year, again, as expected. Storage Test sales, including HDD and system-level test solutions were $68 million in the quarter, down from $95 million in Q1 '21. Defense and aerospace and production board test grew year-on-year. At LitePoint, revenue of $52 million was up 26% from prior year due primarily to strong shipments of WiFi and UWB test systems.

從事業單位角度來看。半導體測試（Semi Test）營收為 4.82 億美元，如預期較 2021 年第一季（Q1 '21）下滑 9%。系統單晶片（SOC）營收為 3.87 億美元，受惠於運算終端市場的強勁需求與行動裝置領域。記憶體營收為 9,600 萬美元，主要來自快閃記憶體（flash）最終測試與 DRAM 晶圓排序（wafer sort）。系統測試（System Test）事業群營收為 1.19 億美元，同樣如預期年減 11%。儲存測試（Storage Test）銷售（包含 HDD 與系統層級測試解決方案）本季為 6,800 萬美元，低於 Q1 '21 的 9,500 萬美元。國防航太與生產板測試（production board test）年增。LitePoint 營收為 5,200 萬美元，較去年同期成長 26%，主要因 WiFi 與 UWB 測試系統出貨強勁。

Looking at our test portfolio overall. The positive demand environment, Mark noted, reinforces the trend line growth built into our 2024 earnings model. In Semi Test, growing device complexity supported by no transitions and unit growth will provide a long-term tailwind to that business. At LifePoint and in System Test, similar increases in complexity continue to drive growth.

整體來看我們的測試產品組合。Mark 提到的正向需求環境，強化了我們在 2024 年獲利模型中所內建的趨勢性成長。在半導體測試方面，在無重大轉換（no transitions）與出貨量成長的支撐下，裝置複雜度提升將為該業務帶來長期順風。在 LitePoint 與系統測試方面，類似的複雜度提升也持續推動成長。

A couple of examples. One, LitePoint revenue in 2021 was approximately double the 2017 level. Two, our Storage Test business. Revenue in Storage Test has more than quadrupled from 2017 to 2021. At LitePoint, we expect growth to continue to be driven by more complex wireless standards for connectivity, sophisticated location tracking and security technologies and cellular applications. In Storage Test, growing chip complexity combined with higher density, hard disk drives are driving long-term growth.

舉兩個例子。第一，LitePoint 於 2021 年的營收約為 2017 年水準的兩倍。第二，我們的儲存測試業務：儲存測試營收在 2017 年至 2021 年間已成長超過四倍。在 LitePoint，我們預期成長將持續由更複雜的無線連線標準、先進的位置追蹤與資安技術，以及蜂巢式應用所帶動。在儲存測試方面，晶片複雜度提升加上更高密度的硬碟（hard disk drives）正推動長期成長。

Now to Industrial Automation. Industrial Automation revenue of $103 million was up 29% year-over-year. This was ahead of what we planned in our Q1 guidance as we were able to work through several supply line constraints in the quarter at UR. I'll also note that we expect IA revenue to follow the historical pattern and grow as we move through the year.

接著看工業自動化（Industrial Automation）。工業自動化營收為 1.03 億美元，年增 29%。由於我們在 UR 於本季得以克服數項供應鏈限制，表現優於我們在 Q1 指引中的規劃。我也要補充，我們預期 IA 營收將遵循歷史型態，隨著年度推進而成長。

UR sales were $85 million in Q1, up 30% and year-over-year with the highest growth in North America. MiR sales were $17 million, up 22% from Q1 '21. As Mark noted, higher payload products with higher ASPs contributed to that growth, and we expect this trend to continue.

UR 第一季銷售為 8,500 萬美元，年增 30%，其中北美成長最高。MiR 銷售為 1,700 萬美元，較 Q1 '21 成長 22%。如 Mark 所提，更高載重（payload）且平均售價（ASP）較高的產品帶動了成長，我們預期此趨勢將持續。

Overall demand at both UR and MiR remained strong as labor availability and rising costs make the financial case for our human scale automation compelling. But as noted, we are watching for the impacts of COVID events in China and the Russian-Ukraine war closely.

整體而言，UR 與 MiR 的需求仍然強勁，因為勞動力供給不足與成本上升，使我們的人本尺度自動化在財務上更具吸引力。不過如前所述，我們也正密切關注中國的 COVID 事件以及俄烏戰爭的影響。

From a financial perspective in IA, the group was breakeven on a non-GAAP operating basis in the first quarter. And for the full year, we expect to operate in the 5% to 15% range we discussed in past calls, with 2022 trending towards the low end of the range. Recall in 2021, IA delivered a 4% non-GAAP operating profit for the full year.

從 IA 的財務角度來看，該事業群在第一季以非 GAAP 營運基礎計算為損益兩平。就全年而言，我們預期營業利益率將落在過去電話會議所提到的 5% 至 15% 區間，且 2022 年將偏向區間低端。回顧 2021 年，IA 全年非 GAAP 營業利益率為 4%。

As noted in the past, with market penetration for cobots and AMRs below 3% and high market growth, our strategy is to prioritize growth over obtaining model profits. Simply put, we are investing to capture these markets as we see significant growth beyond the midterm.

如先前所述，在協作機器人（cobots）與自主移動機器人（AMRs）的市場滲透率低於 3% 且市場成長快速的情況下，我們的策略是優先追求成長，而非取得模型化的獲利（model profits）。簡而言之，我們正在投資以掌握這些市場，因為我們看到中期之後仍有顯著成長。

Shifting to supply. While the demand environment is strong, supply issues are getting progressively worse. We continue to manage through a very challenging supply environment as we have for the past 2 years. Our supply management operations teams and partners have done an incredible job, including navigating through a multi-week plant shutdown at one of our major contract manufacturers in Q1. Fortunately, it was mid-quarter, and we had time to recover. Had the shutdown happened later in the quarter, the recovery could have shifted into the following quarter. It highlights the risk which will persist during the global COVID pandemic.

接著談供應。雖然需求環境強勁，但供應問題正逐步惡化。過去兩年我們一直在非常具挑戰的供應環境中運作，現在仍持續管理。我們的供應管理營運團隊與合作夥伴表現非常出色，包括在 Q1 期間因應我們某家主要代工廠（contract manufacturer）長達數週的工廠停工。所幸停工發生在季度中段，我們有時間恢復；若停工發生在季度後段，復原可能會延續到下一季。這凸顯了在全球 COVID 疫情期間將持續存在的風險。

In Q2, there is more demand to ship if we could align supply. Issues range from chip shortages to COVID-related delivery shutdowns. We're taking numerous actions to harden our supply chain, including expanding our production operations geographically, adding new geographically diverse suppliers, redesigning products to use available components and many other actions. However, even with these actions, we expect supply line constraints to remain an issue through at least the first half of 2023.

在 Q2，如果供應能夠配合，我們其實有更多需求可以出貨。問題範圍從晶片短缺到與 COVID 相關的配送停擺。我們正採取多項行動以強化供應鏈，包括在地理上擴展生產營運、增加地理分散的新供應商、重新設計產品以採用可取得的元件，以及其他許多措施。然而，即使採取這些行動，我們仍預期供應鏈限制至少會持續到 2023 年上半年。

Shifting to the balance sheet and cash flow. Our cash and marketable securities at the end of the quarter totaled $1.2 billion. We had $37 million in negative free cash flow in the quarter. Cash burn in the first quarter is typical for us as we pay variable compensation and profit sharing in the quarter. We spent $201 million and $18 million on buybacks and dividends, respectively, in Q1. As noted in January, we expect to purchase a minimum of $750 million -- sorry, $750 million of shares in 2022.

接著看資產負債表與現金流。本季末我們的現金與有價證券合計為 12 億美元。本季自由現金流為負 3,700 萬美元。第一季出現現金流出對我們而言屬常態，因為我們會在本季支付變動薪酬與利潤分享。我們在 Q1 分別投入 2.01 億美元與 1,800 萬美元用於庫藏股回購與股利。如同 1 月所提，我們預期 2022 年至少回購 7.5 億美元——抱歉，是 7.5 億美元的股票。

Regarding debt. To date, $384 million of convertible bonds have early converted in Q1. We paid $21 million to bondholders in the quarter.

關於負債。截至目前，第一季已有 3.84 億美元的可轉換公司債提前轉換。我們本季支付給債券持有人 2,100 萬美元。

Now to our outlook for Q2. As you've heard this morning, customer demand is strong in all parts of the business. Our guidance range is wider than normal as number of material shortages continues to expand. And while we've been successful to date in addressing these issues, the margin for error continues to narrow, and the guidance assumes we won't see extended shutdowns of our production facilities due to COVID.

接著是我們對 Q2 的展望。如各位今早所聽到的，業務各部分的客戶需求都很強勁。由於物料短缺的項目數量持續增加，我們的指引區間比平常更寬。雖然截至目前我們在處理這些問題上相當成功，但容錯空間持續縮小；此外，該指引假設我們不會因 COVID 而出現生產設施長時間停工。

With that said, sales in Q2 are expected to be between $780 million and $870 million, with non-GAAP EPS in a range of $1 to $1.29 on 170 million diluted shares. The second quarter guidance excludes the amortization of acquired intangibles. Second quarter gross margins are estimated at 60% to 61%. OpEx is expected to run at 31% to 34% of second quarter sales. The non-GAAP operating profit rate at the midpoint of the second quarter guidance is 28%.

在此前提下，Q2 營收預期介於 7.8 億至 8.7 億美元之間；以 1.70 億股稀釋後股數計算，非 GAAP EPS 預期介於 1.00 至 1.29 美元。第二季指引不包含併購取得無形資產的攤銷。第二季毛利率估計為 60% 至 61%。營運費用（OpEx）預期約為第二季營收的 31% 至 34%。以第二季指引中點計算，非 GAAP 營業利益率為 28%。

Turning to the impact of inflation on our P&L. First, gross margins. We are seeing increased costs primarily in components and labor, both internally and at our partners. We're mitigating those increases through a variety of measures, including product pricing, operational efficiencies, multi-sourcing and seeing the benefit of our prior investments to reduce our bill of materials.

接著談通膨對我們損益表（P&L）的影響。首先是毛利率。我們看到成本上升主要來自零組件與人力，不論是內部或合作夥伴端皆然。我們正透過多項措施來緩解這些上升，包括產品定價、營運效率提升、多元供應來源（multi-sourcing），以及受惠於我們先前為降低物料清單（BOM）所做的投資。

Our gross margin performance in Q1 and outlook for Q2 reflects our success to date with these measures. But I remind you, this is a very dynamic environment.

我們在第一季的毛利率表現以及對第二季的展望，反映了迄今這些措施的成效。但我也要提醒各位，這是一個非常動態的環境。

On the OpEx front, we have planned for increased costs tied to inflation and we still plan on growing OpEx 11% to 13% over 2021 as noted in January.

在營業費用（OpEx）方面，我們已規劃因通膨帶來的成本增加，並且仍如同一月所提到的，計畫在 2021 年的基礎上將 OpEx 成長 11% 到 13%。

Looking at our revenue profile for the year. The first half is shaping up a little bit better than expected with very tight supply. The second half is looking to be slightly up versus last year's second half, reasonably consistent with our expectations at the beginning of the year, even though test demand is incrementally higher. Supply issues may push some of that incremental demand into 2023.

就我們今年的營收輪廓來看。由於供應非常吃緊，上半年表現看起來會比預期稍好。下半年看起來將較去年下半年小幅成長，與我們年初的預期大致一致，儘管測試需求略為更高。供應問題可能會把部分新增需求推遲到 2023 年。

We expect third quarter revenues will grow high single digits from the Q2 level and Q4 will grow sequentially as well. Our current view is that the first half revenues will be 46% to 47% and second half revenues will be 53% to 54%.

我們預期第三季營收將較第二季水準成長高個位數百分比，第四季也將呈現季增。我們目前的看法是，上半年營收占比為 46% 到 47%，下半年營收占比為 53% 到 54%。

To sum up, demand across the company remains strong and growing supply constraints are moderating our shipments more than at any other time since the pandemic began. We're expanding our playbook to address these issues, but it's a very dynamic playing field and we're calling a lot of audibles along the way.

總結來說，全公司需求仍然強勁且持續成長，而日益加劇的供應限制，正以前所未有的程度（自疫情開始以來）抑制我們的出貨。我們正在擴充我們的應對手冊來處理這些問題，但這是一個非常動態的賽局，我們也一路上做了很多臨場調整（audibles）。

Our global teams in go-to-market operations, engineering and support functions continue to execute and collaborate in a challenging and dynamic environment to meet customer demand and deliver shareholder value. The passion is enjoyable to observe. Well done, team.

我們在全球的市場推進（go-to-market）營運、工程與支援等團隊，持續在充滿挑戰且動態的環境中執行並協作，以滿足客戶需求並為股東創造價值。看到大家的熱情令人愉快。做得好，團隊。

With that, I'll turn things back to Andy.

接下來，我把時間交回給 Andy。

Thanks, Sanjay. Chris, we'd now like to take some questions. And as a reminder, please let me yourself to one question and a follow-up.

謝謝你，Sanjay。Chris，我們現在想開始提問。也提醒各位，請每位提問者限制為一個問題加上一個追問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from C.J. Muse of Evercore.

（接線員指示）我們的第一個問題來自 Evercore 的 C.J. Muse。

I guess first question, regarding your largest customer heading into 2023, and obviously, that's a long time from now. But curious, as you think about the move to 3-nanometer, how are you thinking about test demand as it relates to units versus complexity? And I guess the worry in the marketplace is that the adoption of 3 could be spread out over 2 years as opposed to 1, and that would reduce kind of the demand for testers from you guys. So would love to hear how you're thinking about that. And obviously, the caveat is it very early to have a great view there?

我想先問第一個問題，關於你們在 2023 年最大的客戶，當然那離現在還很久。不過我想了解，當你們思考轉向 3 奈米時，你們如何看待測試需求在「出貨量（units）」與「複雜度（complexity）」之間的關係？市場上的擔憂是，3 奈米的導入可能會分散到兩年而不是一年，這會降低你們測試機的需求。很想聽聽你們怎麼看。當然也要加上但書：現在要有很清楚的能見度可能還太早？

Yes, C.J., it's really early on that. But first of all, I think there's two parts of your question. I think overall, we're looking at 3-nanometer in 2023 as mostly a complexity growth equation versus a unit growth driver in the cellphone device arena.

是的，C.J.，現在談這個確實還很早。不過首先，我認為你的問題有兩個部分。整體而言，我們看 2023 年的 3 奈米，在手機裝置領域主要是「複雜度成長」的方程式，而不是由「出貨量成長」所驅動。

I think the other part of your question is, well, what if the adoption is partial for 3 nanometer. Certain devices go to 3 and other ones sort of lag. I think that is something we've seen before in iPads and other kinds of products in the market where they bifurcate migration.

我想你問題的另一部分是：如果 3 奈米的採用是部分導入呢？某些裝置轉到 3 奈米，其他的則稍微落後。我認為我們以前在 iPad 以及市場上其他類型產品也看過這種分流式的遷移（bifurcate migration）。

If and when that ever occurs, there could be a 1-year depressed demand for test. But then in subsequent years, those sort of bifurcated product lines kind of then move in lockstep again north, maybe one's waterfall back a year, but the complexity growth resumes thereafter. So it's all hypothetical, but something like that would have an impact.

如果、以及當這種情況發生時，測試需求可能會有一年的低迷。但在後續年度，這些分流的產品線通常又會再次同步往上走；也許其中一條會延後一年，但之後複雜度成長會再度恢復。所以這些都只是假設，但類似情況確實會帶來影響。

Very helpful. I guess for my second question, just trying to think through your kind of stronger second half versus first half. And obviously, the robotics piece is helping on that. But this is the first time I think I've ever seen you guys have kind of a stronger outlook for Semi Test. Into the back half, where normally Q2 seasonally is your strongest quarter. So is that all a factor of supply constraints? Or are there other drivers to that change in trend?

非常有幫助。我想第二個問題是，試著理解你們下半年相對上半年更強的走勢。當然，機器人那一塊對此有幫助。但我想這是我第一次看到你們對半導體測試（Semi Test）在下半年有更強的展望，因為通常第二季季節性是你們最強的一季。所以這完全是供應限制造成的嗎？還是還有其他因素導致這個趨勢改變？

Well, there's three things going on there. The biggest thing -- Q2 is usually large because our largest customer has a big tooling peak in 2Q and 3Q. So that's absent. But the other thing is that the visibility is a bit longer now with lead times out. Customers are ordering a little bit in advance for capacity. So we do see a little more of what's to come towards the back end of this year and early '23. And it sort of aligns to this complexity growth related to new nodes that we're seeing.

嗯，這裡有三件事同時在發生。最大的一點是——第二季通常會很大，因為我們最大的客戶在第二季和第三季會有一個很大的治具/產能建置高峰（tooling peak）。但今年這個因素不存在。另一點是，由於交期拉長，現在的能見度也更長。客戶為了產能會提早一些下單。因此，我們確實能看到今年後段以及 2023 年初將發生的一些事情。而這也與我們看到的新製程節點所帶來的複雜度成長相吻合。

So I think this year is a little unique in that absent the mobility bubble we usually see in the summer and adding in the move towards this node transition next year, we get this more linear ramp through the year of demand.

所以我認為今年有點特別：少了我們通常在夏季會看到的行動裝置泡沫（mobility bubble），再加上明年朝這個節點轉換的推進，使得今年的需求呈現更線性的逐步上升。

Our next question comes from Mehdi Hosseini of SFG.

我們的下一個問題來自 SFG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

I want to go back to your outlook, especially looking into next year, and you made a reference to WFE, which is very positive, given all the investment this year. But it also appears that the investment for trailing edge is growing much faster and particularly a higher level of investment in China. What I want to ask you is how are you positioned in China, especially for with OSAT houses? And is there any incremental opportunity for share gain? And I have a follow-up.

我想回到你們的展望，特別是看向明年。你提到了晶圓廠設備（WFE），在今年投資這麼多的情況下，這是非常正面的。但看起來成熟製程（trailing edge）的投資成長更快，尤其是在中國的投資水準更高。我想問的是，你們在中國的布局如何，特別是面向封測代工（OSAT）廠？是否有任何額外的市占提升機會？我還有一個追問。

Yes. I think in China, we're positioned very well in legacy nonleading edge. The one place in China, we're not positioned well is with Huawei and Huawei-associated companies, which tends to -- are trying to skew as best they can toward more leading-edge positions.

是的。我認為在中國，我們在傳統、非先進製程（legacy non-leading edge）方面的布局非常好。在中國我們布局不佳的一個地方，是華為以及與華為相關的公司；他們傾向——並且盡其所能——朝更先進製程的方向靠攏。

But to the extent China will continue to grow on trailing edge -- but overall, our share of, let's say, the non-Huawei part of China is roughly the same as it is outside of China. So it's not a balloon or an anchor, so to speak. We're kind of going to float up and down there, I think, with investment and demand.

但就中國在成熟製程持續成長而言——整體來說，我們在中國（非華為相關部分）的市占，大致與中國以外市場相同。所以它不算是氣球也不算是錨；可以這麼說，我認為我們會隨著投資與需求在那裡一起上下浮動。

Okay. So nothing really out of ordinary. If they are indeed investing more, it should trickle down to the back end and you as one of the two. Okay.

好的。所以沒有什麼特別異常。如果他們確實投資更多，應該會傳導到後段製程（back end）以及你們這兩家之一。好的。

And then moving on to Industrial Automation. And thanks for color on ADAS incremental opportunity. But it also seems to me that in order for you to fully realize the synergies between your Semi Test and Industrial Automation for EV and ADAS application, you would need to have more of a software content. And I'm just curious if I'm thinking about this the right way? And whether you would have to go to the market and acquire software IP so that you can have a more comprehensive portfolio for these growthy end markets?

接著談工業自動化。謝謝你們對 ADAS 額外機會的補充說明。但我也覺得，若要在電動車（EV）與 ADAS 應用上，充分實現你們半導體測試（Semi Test）與工業自動化之間的綜效，你們需要更多的軟體內容。我想確認我這樣想是否正確？以及你們是否需要到市場上收購軟體 IP，才能在這些高成長終端市場提供更完整的產品組合？

No, I don't see that, Mehdi. I think where we are positioned now, we're completely aligned to the technology trends in EV and ADAS and everything else there. So no, I don't see the need for that.

不，Mehdi，我不這麼看。我認為以我們目前的布局，我們已經完全對齊 EV、ADAS 以及其他相關領域的技術趨勢。所以不，我看不到有這樣的需求。

And next, we have Timothy Arcuri of UBS.

接下來是 UBS 的 Timothy Arcuri。

So Mark, you were saying that the SOC TAM is trending toward the high end of the $4.6 billion to $5 billion. I'm just wondering if you can give us some idea of sort of what end market's driving that the high end? I think last quarter, you gave us some breakdown. Compute, you thought would be $1.3 billion. I think you thought mobility would be $1.8 billion. Autos would be about $500 million. So can you just give us sort of what end market is driving that toward the high end? It sounds like Autos might be a little better.

Mark，你提到 SoC 的 TAM 正朝 46 億到 50 億美元區間的高端走。我想請你們談談，是哪些終端市場在推動它往高端走？我記得上季你們有提供一些拆分：運算（Compute）你們認為會是 13 億美元；行動（Mobility）你們認為會是 18 億美元；車用（Autos）大約 5 億美元。所以你能否再說明一下，是哪些終端市場把它推向高端？聽起來車用可能稍微更好。

Sure. It's Sanjay here. I'll take that one. So we're seeing strength in -- incremental strength in compute and in Auto that's driving us to the high end.

當然。我是 Sanjay，我來回答。我們看到運算（compute）與車用（Auto）都有更強的動能增量，這正是推動我們走向高端的原因。

Okay. And then I guess a question just around China. So are you seeing any impact or any pushouts or delays in shipment time lines from Chinese OSAT customers as a result of the lockdowns and maybe just as a result, also of weak demand in the consumer segment? So I mean, obviously, demand is still very strong if you look holistically. But if you look at the consumer markets and you look specifically in China, are you seeing any examples of customers delaying shipments of testers?

好的。接著我想問一個關於中國的問題。那麼你們是否看到因為封控，或可能也因為消費性領域需求疲弱，而導致中國 OSAT 客戶在出貨時程上有任何影響、延後或推遲？我的意思是，若從整體來看，需求顯然仍然非常強勁。但如果看消費性市場、尤其是中國，你們是否看到任何客戶延後測試機（tester）出貨的例子？

No, we're not seeing any tester real meaningful delays at all yet in China. We have seen in the Industrial Automation business, the robotics business, some slowdown in China. Sanjay referred to the Q1 performance there was a bit weak, and we're watching that. So that's more immediate. And as factories shutdown and things, we feel that. But I think on the test side, the headlights and the investments needed along the trend line are kind of obvious and compelling, and there's no yet any blips.

沒有，我們目前在中國還沒有看到任何真正有意義的測試機延遲。我們在工業自動化業務、機器人業務方面，確實看到中國有一些放緩。Sanjay 提到第一季那邊的表現有點疲弱，我們也在觀察。所以那是比較即時的影響。當工廠停工等等，我們會感受到。但我認為在測試這一端，沿著趨勢線所需要的能見度與投資其實相當明顯且具吸引力，目前還沒有出現任何小波動。

And next, we have Brian Chin of Stifel.

接下來是 Stifel 的 Brian Chin。

I guess the first one focused on test. Given the supply challenges that you're discussing, do you think you're baking in enough conservatism on the '22 TAM outlook? And I ask in part because I think despite strong order rates, your competitor Advantest, they widened their 2022 TAM outlook, but at the lower, not higher end of the range. So kind of curious about that.

我想第一個問題聚焦在測試。鑑於你們正在討論的供應挑戰，你們覺得在 2022 年 TAM 展望中已經納入足夠的保守性了嗎？我之所以這麼問，部分原因是我認為儘管訂單率很強，你們的競爭對手 Advantest 擴大了他們 2022 年 TAM 展望區間，但卻是在區間的較低端、而不是較高端。對此我有點好奇。

And also, beyond your largest customer with [telegraphed] last call, have you seen any incremental signs of capacity digestion in the broader SOC -- mobile SOC market?

另外，除了你們最大客戶在上次電話會議中已經[預告]的情況之外，你們是否在更廣泛的 SoC——行動 SoC 市場看到任何額外的產能消化（capacity digestion）跡象？

So just a quick comment from me first, and I'll let Sanjay talk a little more about it. I do think that compared to Advantest, we're in a very different supply chain situation. You look at their backlog out at almost a year. There's a very, I think, limited ability for them to see a road to incremental revenue in the year whereas we're 6 months and less versus 1 year. And we do have capacity growth capability in the back half. So that's the difference, but I'll let Sanjay address the broader question.

我先快速補充一下，然後讓 Sanjay 再多談一些。我確實認為，和 Advantest 相比，我們處在非常不同的供應鏈情境。你看他們的積壓訂單（backlog）幾乎排到將近一年。我認為他們在今年要看到額外營收的路徑能力相當有限；而我們是 6 個月以內，相較於 1 年。而且我們在下半年確實有擴充產能的能力。這就是差異，不過我讓 Sanjay 回答更廣泛的問題。

Yes, I think overall, supply is getting tighter. As I've said on prior calls, I thought with substrate and fab capacity coming online in 2022, we'd be a little bit more in balance with supply and demand, but that hasn't been the case. As I said, our current view is that we see the tightening continuing into the first half of 2023.

是的，我認為整體而言供應正在變得更緊。如同我在先前的電話會議中提到的，我原本以為隨著 2022 年基板與晶圓廠產能陸續開出，供需會更趨於平衡，但事實並非如此。正如我所說，我們目前的看法是，這種緊縮會延續到 2023 年上半年。

And from an overall market perspective, we do believe that there is a constraining element of supply to meet the overall demand. And it's in the places where you'd expect in the semiconductor parts, FPGA linear logic, memory, other ASICs.

從整體市場角度來看，我們確實相信供應端存在限制因素，無法完全滿足整體需求。而且這些瓶頸出現在你所預期的地方：半導體零組件、FPGA、線性/邏輯、記憶體、其他 ASIC 等。

Got it. And then as I missed the part, I think I asked about whether you're seeing any signs of digestion in the broader SOC mobile market?

了解。那我可能漏聽了一段，我想我問的是：你們是否在更廣泛的行動 SoC 市場看到任何消化跡象？

No, not really. And I think the demand is still strong and the request for shipments are not pushing out. So I don't see any signs yet in test of sort of slacking demand.

沒有，並沒有。我認為需求仍然強勁，出貨要求也沒有往後推。所以我在測試端還沒有看到任何需求轉弱的跡象。

Okay. Maybe just for my follow-up. In Industrial Automation, sorry if I missed this, but is sort of mid-30% plus still the bogey there in terms of growth rates? Obviously, talking about accelerated growth rates moving through the year. Improvements on your lead times, but also still some constraints, I think, was the discussion and also some -- want to see sort of how the pattern unfolds in China. So maybe can you discuss that and then also what that China exposure is? I think it's a fairly minority portion of the business, right?

好的。那我追問一下。在工業自動化方面，抱歉如果我漏聽了，你們在成長率上是否仍以 30% 中段以上作為目標（bogey）？顯然你們談到今年內成長率會加速、交期改善，但我想討論中也提到仍有一些限制，另外也想看看中國的走勢會如何發展。能否談談這些，以及你們在中國的曝險是多少？我記得那應該是業務中相對較小的一部分，對吧？

Yes. So it's Sanjay here. So 35% plus is still our objective or our plan this year. It's progressing as we'd expect. I would say that, as Mark noted, China, which has traditionally been a very high-growth environment for IA, was slightly down year-on-year. And as Mark noted, we believe it's really tied to the plant shutdowns. So we're watching it very closely.

是的，我是 Sanjay。今年我們的目標或計畫仍是 35% 以上。進展符合我們的預期。我會說，如 Mark 所提到的，中國過去一直是工業自動化（IA）非常高成長的環境，但今年第一季同比略為下滑。而如 Mark 所說，我們認為這確實與工廠停工有關，所以我們正在非常密切地觀察。

I would say on the supply front, a large -- a significant portion of that range increase is tied to supply. With UR, the range is approximately, let's say, $20 million, which is really a supply-driven range.

我會說在供應面上，該區間上調中有很大——相當大的一部分是與供應相關。以 UR 來看，區間大約是 2,000 萬美元左右，這基本上是由供應所驅動的區間。

And then secondly -- I'd say secondly, we are seeing supply from an IA perspective, lead times -- or sorry, our backlog will still be -- we expect it to be between 4 to 6 weeks as opposed to our objective of 1 to 2 weeks to keep it a fast turns business.

然後第二點——我會說第二點，從 IA 的角度來看，我們的供應、交期——或抱歉，我們的積壓訂單（backlog）仍會——我們預期會在 4 到 6 週之間，而不是我們希望的 1 到 2 週，因為我們希望把它維持為一個快速周轉（fast turns）的業務。

So I do think the China piece is roughly 10% of our overall IA business. So it is flatlined in Q1 kind of on growth. But part of how we get to 35 plus through the back end of the year is assuming some of this COVID stuff goes away in China and in Q3 and -- we're presuming it persists through second quarter. But Q3 and Q4, it goes away.

所以我確實認為，中國這一塊大約占我們整體 IA 業務的 10%。因此在第一季成長上算是持平。但我們之所以能在今年下半年達到 35% 以上，部分假設是中國的這些 COVID 相關狀況會消退——我們假設它會持續到第二季；但在第三季與——我們假設第三季、第四季會消退。

Okay. That's fair.

好的。這樣合理。

Our next question comes from Atif Malik of Citi.

下一個問題來自 Citi 的 Atif Malik。

Mark, you talked about weakness in the DRAM market. If you can just provide some more color. Is this because of DDR5 adoption pushed out because of the supply rapid delay? Or are you seeing something more?

Mark，你提到 DRAM 市場的疲弱。能否再提供一些細節？這是因為 DDR5 的導入因供應方面的延遲而被推遲嗎？還是你們看到更多其他因素？

No, it's exactly that. DDR5 is moving slower than planned. It kind of server Sapphire Rapids delay. Nothing fundamental. The three elements of the memory market between DRAM wafer test final test and then flash wafer test final test kind of are 1/4, 1/4, 1/4 each of the total $1 billion TAM. There is a bit more tooling this year for DRAM wafer test, but that's nothing -- I think that's noise, not signal. And as I mentioned, we're seeing some strengthening in the flash side that's sort of making up more than the difference on the DDR5 weakness.

沒有，正是那個原因。DDR5 的進展比原先規劃慢，某種程度上是伺服器 Sapphire Rapids 延遲所致。沒有什麼根本性的問題。記憶體市場的三個要素：DRAM 晶圓測試、最終測試，以及快閃記憶體晶圓測試、最終測試，合計約 10 億美元 TAM 中各占 1/4、1/4、1/4。DRAM 晶圓測試今年會多一些設備投入，但那不算什麼——我認為那是雜訊，不是訊號。而如我提到的，我們看到快閃端有些走強，足以彌補 DDR5 疲弱所造成的差距，甚至超過。

The other thing about memory that's very encouraging for us is that we've talked about our market share being about 40%, low 40s globally there. In China, which is still investing heavily and growing quite rapidly in memory, it's moving closer to the high 50s. So we've got some good potential here with DDR5 hopefully coming back next year with Sapphire Rapids and the continued investments going into China.

關於記憶體，另一個對我們非常鼓舞的點是：我們談過我們在全球的市占大約是 40% 出頭、低 40% 的水準。在中國，記憶體仍在大量投資且成長相當快速，我們的市占正往接近 50% 高段移動。所以隨著 DDR5 希望在明年配合 Sapphire Rapids 回來，以及中國持續投入，我們在這裡有不錯的潛力。

Great. And as my follow-up, I want to go back to C.J.'s question earlier about the mobile compute adoption spread maybe over -- in a couple of years. That phone maker has publicly talked about facing physical limitations in creating a larger die to accommodate more transistors at 5-nanometer, which I don't believe was the driver in iPad-type decisions historically. So I mean, is it fair to assume that device maker could adopt 3-nanometer more widely moving forward given the limitations on the die side?

很好。那我追問一下，我想回到先前 C.J. 關於行動運算採用可能分散到——未來幾年的問題。那家手機製造商已公開談到，在 5 奈米要做更大的晶粒（die）以容納更多電晶體時，會面臨實體限制；而我不認為這在過去 iPad 類型的決策中是主要驅動因素。所以，我的意思是，考量到晶粒尺寸方面的限制，是否可以合理假設該裝置製造商未來可能會更廣泛地採用 3 奈米？

Yes, I think that's more likely. It was a hypothetical question, I think, that C.J. was asking. But I do think -- so just to walk it back a little bit. This year, we've seen a slackening demand in tester demand because the complexity growth is low in phone silicon, highly correlated with the fact that we're kind of in our third year of 5-nanometer production. And yes, you just can't afford to grow the die size. It doesn't make economic sense to grow the die size. And absent that, it's hard to get more transistors unless you do a node transition.

是的，我認為那更有可能。C.J. 問的我想是一個假設性問題。不過我確實認為——我稍微回顧一下。今年我們看到測試機需求有些放緩，因為手機晶片的複雜度成長偏低，這與我們已經進入 5 奈米量產的第三年高度相關。是的，你確實無法負擔晶粒尺寸持續變大；從經濟角度來看，讓晶粒變大並不合理。而在不變大晶粒的情況下，若不進行製程節點轉換，就很難塞進更多電晶體。

So there's a bit of a backlog and a pent-up demand to get to this next turn of the screw, the next node of 3 nanometer. So this all depends kind of on the yields of what 3-nanometer is going to look like. But on the other side of the argument, you could see a larger portfolio of devices driving to move to 3-nanometer next year and people will be competing for fab capacity if the yields prove to be good. And I think you want to be positioned with the customers who are in the front of the line on that fab capacity, which I hope we are. I think we are. But I would subscribe more to the fact that people are -- there's a pent-up demand, and it could swing the other way.

因此，市場對於進入下一個「再轉一圈螺絲」、也就是下一個 3 奈米節點，存在一些積壓與被壓抑的需求。這一切某種程度取決於 3 奈米的良率會呈現什麼樣子。但從另一個角度看，如果良率證明不錯，你可能會看到更大範圍的裝置產品組合在明年推動轉向 3 奈米，而大家會為了晶圓廠產能而競爭。我認為你會希望自己站在那些在產能排隊前段的客戶那一邊，我希望我們是。我認為我們是。但我更傾向於認同：人們確實有被壓抑的需求，而情勢可能會往另一個方向擺動。

And next, we have Vivek Arya of Bank of America.

接下來，我們請到美國銀行的 Vivek Arya。

I just wanted to revisit this notion of the supply situation getting tighter. How do we reconcile that with your forecast of growing high single digit in Q2, Q3 and Q4 if the supply situation is getting tighter, how are you able to grow faster?

我想再回到供應情況趨緊這個觀點。如果供應情況正在變得更緊，該如何與你們對第二季、第三季與第四季高個位數成長的預測相互印證？在供應更緊的情況下，你們如何還能更快成長？

Well, we've been planning for it. I think a couple of things. We've been investing in multi-sourcing of components, geographically diversing. We've been building capacity really tied to our plans that we published with our earnings model. And you can see by our balance sheet, we're building inventory. So fundamentally, we're planning for it, and we're looking to execute.

嗯，我們一直在為此做規劃。我想有幾件事。我們一直在投資於零組件的多來源供應，並在地理上分散。我們也在依照我們在獲利模型中公布的計畫來建置產能。從資產負債表也可以看到，我們正在建立庫存。所以從根本上說，我們是在做規劃，並且準備執行。

And the other thing we've been doing is some redesigns to remove some of the bottleneck parts. And as those redesigns sort of flow into the shipment stream in the second half of the year, that gives us some incremental flexibility. So it's usually -- it's a few critical parts that bottleneck us that go through mad scrambles, negotiations, phone calls and things to try to unlock some supply from the suppliers during the course of the quarter. And we've been largely successful for the past 2 years doing that. We're still able to grow here in Q2, doing that. It's just that the likely outcome is more and more sort of constraints on the top end of what we might otherwise be able to ship. So for example, in the second quarter, Sanjay, roughly how much revenue and test are we thinking we've bottlenecked because of the line of sight we have on supply?

另外一件我們在做的事，是透過一些重新設計來移除某些瓶頸零件。當這些重新設計在下半年逐步導入出貨流程時，會帶來一些額外的彈性。通常會卡住我們的是少數幾個關鍵零件，於是就會出現瘋狂的搶料、談判、電話往來等等，試圖在季度期間從供應商那裡解鎖一些供應。過去兩年我們大致上都成功做到這點。我們在第二季仍能成長，也是靠這樣做。只是很可能的結果是：我們原本可能能出貨的上限，會受到越來越多的限制。舉例來說，在第二季，Sanjay，依我們目前對供應的能見度，我們認為因為供應瓶頸而卡住了大約多少營收與測試（test）？

Yes. So in test, I'd say it's in the $40 million range. And I'd say in IA, it's in the $10 million range. And that is outside of our high end of our range, which is really unprecedented for us.

是的。就測試（test）而言，我會說大約在 4,000 萬美元的範圍。就 IA 而言，大約在 1,000 萬美元的範圍。而且這是在我們區間高端之外，對我們來說確實前所未見。

Right. So that gives you some flavor of the magnitude. And that test in the past quarters might have been $10 million kind of numbers, small, but it's going from $10 million to $40 million, that's significant. And we look out in Q3 and Q4, it's judgment still, but we still think everything that Sanjay says we've done positions us to grow with reasonable performance on clearing some of these critical parts and anticipating this constrained environment persisting and getting a little bit worse.

對。所以這讓你大概了解其量級。過去幾季測試（test）可能是 1,000 萬美元這種小數字，但從 1,000 萬增加到 4,000 萬，這就很顯著。我們往第三季、第四季看，仍然需要判斷，但我們仍認為 Sanjay 所說我們所做的一切，讓我們在合理表現地清除一些關鍵零件瓶頸的前提下，能夠持續成長；同時也預期這種受限的環境會持續，並且會稍微變得更糟。

Very helpful. And then for my follow-up, Mark, I wanted to revisit this content growth argument when you move from one node to another. So a few questions on that. First, could you give us a range of how much your average content grew in prior cycles and mobile SOCs when your customer moved from one generation to another? Was it 10% to 15%? 15% to 20%? If you could just give us some sense of what that range has been historically.

非常有幫助。接著我的追問，Mark，我想再回到你提到客戶從一個製程節點移轉到另一個節點時的「內容（content）成長」論點。我有幾個問題。第一，你能否給我們一個區間：在過去的週期中、在行動 SoC 上，當客戶從一代移轉到下一代時，你們的平均內容（content）成長大概是多少？是 10% 到 15%？15% 到 20%？如果你能讓我們了解一下歷史上大概落在哪個範圍。

And the other thing I'm curious about is that will this require brand-new testers? Or can part of the deployed base be upgraded? Just how much incremental is this move to 3 nanometer so we're not surprised when it happens next year?

另外我也好奇，這是否需要全新的測試機（tester）？還是已部署的機台有一部分可以升級？轉向 3 奈米到底有多少增量，讓我們不至於在明年發生時感到意外？

I'm not sure what you mean by the content growth. So just clarify that for a minute.

我不太確定你所說的內容（content）成長是指什麼。你先釐清一下這點。

Sure. So how does one quantify complexity, right, that if your average tester per unit of that smartphone is X when that SOC moves from 5 to 3, then how much extra tester revenue can you get from that for the same number of units?

當然。要如何量化複雜度，對吧？如果每支智慧型手機在某個 SoC 上的平均測試機（tester）配置是 X，當該 SoC 從 5 奈米移到 3 奈米時，在相同出貨量下，你們能從中獲得多少額外的測試機營收？

Yes. So the -- first of all, that second part of your question, which was reuse of testers. Testers are absolutely reused node to node, generation to generation. And testers we put in 10 years ago are still being used for mobile device testing. So long, long product lives. They do need to be upgraded a bit now and then. That's part of the flow, but there's no obsolescence event coming in the short term around testers. That's not in our midterm plan and anything else and hasn't been in the past.

是的。首先，你問題的第二部分，也就是測試機的重複使用。測試機絕對會在不同節點、不同世代之間重複使用。我們 10 年前部署的測試機，現在仍在用於行動裝置測試。產品壽命非常非常長。它們確實需要不時做一些升級，這是流程的一部分，但短期內不會出現測試機的淘汰事件。這不在我們的中期計畫中，過去也沒有。

So the node transitions typically enable transistor count bumps, and that's what drives incremental test capacity because you -- the same device requires more test time. And so I think you could expect something in the rough jump of 30%, 40% jump in transistor counts; drive, maybe a 20% jump in tester capacity. So you've got to do the math across the whole installed base of testers and everything else. So I haven't recently sat down and tried to pencil that out, so I can't sort of do it off the top of my head, but that's roughly the ratio is that what a node transition will give us is that big jump in transistor count.

製程節點的轉換通常會帶來電晶體數量的提升，而這會推動額外的測試產能需求，因為同一顆裝置需要更多測試時間。因此我認為你可以預期電晶體數量大約會有 30% 到 40% 的跳升，進而帶動測試機產能需求可能約 20% 的提升。你必須把整個已安裝的測試機基礎等因素一起算進去。我最近沒有坐下來把這些細算，所以沒辦法即席算給你，但大致上的比例就是：節點轉換會帶來那樣幅度的電晶體數跳升。

And then you can say, okay, just to take an example, if the installed base of testers is 100, and there's no unit growth, all there is a node transition of about a 30% to 40% complexity bump, you would need 20 more testers to cover that in that year. The model is much more complex than that, of course. You'd have to sort of do it over years and model it. But that's the tips of the waves on it.

然後你可以說，好，舉個例子，如果已安裝的測試機基礎是 100 台，而且沒有出貨量成長，只有節點轉換帶來約 30% 到 40% 的複雜度提升，那一年你可能需要再增加 20 台測試機來覆蓋這個需求。當然，模型比這複雜得多。你得跨多年去建模。但這大概就是它的輪廓。

And next, we have Krish Sankar of Cowen.

接下來，我們請到 Cowen 的 Krish Sankar。

I have two of them. Mark, thanks for the color on the industry market sizes. Given that the incremental strength in SOC is coming from auto, and memory is kind of more rejiggered towards NAND versus DRAM, is it fair to still assume that your market share in SOC and memory is going to be about 40% this year? Or do you think SOC may be slightly higher, memory slightly lower? Then I have a follow-up.

我有兩個問題。Mark，謝謝你對產業市場規模的補充說明。鑑於 SoC 的增量強勁主要來自車用，而記憶體則更像是重新調整到 NAND 而非 DRAM，今年仍然合理假設你們在 SoC 與記憶體的市占率大約都是 40% 嗎？還是你認為 SoC 可能略高、記憶體略低？然後我還有一個追問。

Yes. I think for the year, memory is probably still around 40, plus or minus 1% or so, but around 40. I don't think it changes significantly with this flash shift.

是的。我認為就全年而言，記憶體大概仍在 40% 左右，上下差不多 1% 之內，但大約是 40%。我不認為這個快閃（flash）轉移會讓它有顯著變化。

In the case of -- I wouldn't characterize it as much of a change. It's also probably slightly short of 40 for the year. And it will kind of depend on what happens in the supply chain issues as we get into Q4. I anticipate we'll be -- and we anticipate in our discussion here that we're going to be bottlenecked. The 30 -- $40-ish million were bottlenecked here in Q2 will likely grow as we get toward Q4. And if that, in fact, happens, then we'll probably be 38% to 39% share. If we can unconstrain that, we can ship more testers off, it could be in the 40% range.

至於——我不會把它形容成很大的變化。全年可能也略低於 40%。而且這會取決於我們進入第四季時供應鏈問題的發展。我預期——也在我們今天的討論中預期——我們會受到瓶頸限制。第二季我們大約有 3,000 萬到 4,000 萬美元左右受瓶頸影響，到了第四季可能會增加。如果確實如此，那我們的市占率可能會是 38% 到 39%。如果能解除這些限制、我們能多出貨一些測試機，那就可能回到 40% 左右。

Got it. Got it. And then you kind of spoke about the 3-nanometer from a large customer next year. Historically, there's been a little bit of a headwind to gross margin when they spend. I'm just kind of curious, should that be worse or similar to historical trends, if next year auto test flows and the tailwind you have this year from the Eagle test high-margin testers moderate as your large customer becomes a bigger portion in 2023?

了解，了解。接著你提到明年某個大客戶的 3 奈米。歷史上，當他們支出增加時，毛利率通常會有一些逆風。我想請教的是：如果明年車用測試流程持續推進，而今年來自 Eagle 測試高毛利測試機的順風在 2023 年隨著大客戶占比提高而趨於緩和，這種毛利率逆風會比歷史更嚴重，還是大致相同？

Yes. It's Sanjay. So I think it's a good observation that the mobility, we'll call it the bubble. If we see that in 2023 on a margin percentage, it will have an impact. But I will say that we are having investments that continually work to both add supply assurance, but also -- and give us flexibility but also drives from a bill of materials. And we've been fighting the cost or the component inflation. But we plan to execute in our at our earnings model level of 59% to 60% would be our expectation.

是的，我是 Sanjay。我認為這是個很好的觀察：行動端，我們稱之為泡泡（bubble）。如果 2023 年出現那種情況，對毛利率百分比會有影響。但我也要說，我們持續進行投資，一方面提升供應保障、也——提供我們彈性，同時也從物料清單（BOM）的角度著手。我們一直在對抗成本或零組件通膨。但我們的計畫是以獲利模型的水準來執行，我們的預期會是 59% 到 60%。

Up next, we have Toshiya Hari of Goldman Sachs.

接下來，我們請到高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

I had two as well. Mark, you talked about the hyperscale opportunity in your prepared remarks. I think you noted that some of the customer activity seems to be accelerating and that you've been pleased with your run rate. I was hoping you could elaborate on that a little bit and to the extent possible, kind of speak to the timing of a potential inflection in that business. I realize that's sort of a medium- to long-term opportunity for you. But curious to hear any new developments there?

我也有兩個問題。Mark，你在事先準備的發言中談到超大規模（hyperscale）的機會。我想你提到一些客戶活動似乎正在加速，而且你對目前的 run rate 感到滿意。我希望你能再多談一點，並在可能的範圍內，談談這項業務可能出現拐點的時間點。我知道那對你們而言是中長期機會，但也想聽聽是否有任何新的進展？

Yes, that's -- it's tough to speculate because there's two classes of hyperscaler silicon development that are going on. There's a class of development around new consumer products. That one is incredibly difficult for us to forecast because it's unprecedented-type product introductions to see if the market will develop or will they even be introduced. So to me, those -- they're active, we're highly engaged, they're wildcards.

是的，那個——很難推測，因為目前有兩類超大規模業者（hyperscaler）的矽晶開發正在進行。一類是圍繞新的消費性產品的開發。這一類對我們來說極難預測，因為這些是前所未有類型的產品導入，要看市場是否會發展，甚至它們是否會被推出。所以對我而言，那些——它們很活躍，我們高度參與，但它們是變數。

Then there's another class that I would say is more compute, cloud infrastructure. Chips going into the cloud for specialized. Could be AI applications going into the edge. Those are a little more, I would say, have precedented applications, and we have long-term sort of plans. And those, I expect are going to start ramping next year. I think some of these are going to ramp.

然後還有另一類，我會說更偏向運算、雲端基礎設施。晶片進入雲端，用於特定用途。也可能是用於邊緣端的 AI 應用。這些我會說相對更有既有的應用先例，我們也有長期的規劃。而我預期這些將在明年開始放量。我認為其中一些會開始放量。

Now how material will they be? I think we're still talking from a tester point of view, tens of millions versus hundreds of millions of dollars of incremental revenue. So we're still going to be early innings, but that gives you some sense.

那它們會有多大程度的實質貢獻？我認為從測試機（tester）的角度來看，我們談的仍是數千萬美元對比數億美元的增量營收。所以我們仍處於早期階段，但這能讓你有一些概念。

Got it. That's helpful. And then as a quick follow-up, maybe one for Sanjay. You guys seem to be executing really well from a gross margin perspective despite everything that's going on. I think you beat the midpoint of your guidance in Q1 by more than 100 basis points. You're guiding to another higher than 60% quarter for Q2 despite everything that's going on. So I guess the question is, is this primarily a function of your largest customer being absent or at least being a small percentage of your revenue than typical in that driving a better mix? Or are there -- I know you guys are working on a bunch of things. Is there anything sustainable that could drive margins above your long-term model?

了解。這很有幫助。然後快速追問一下，可能問 Sanjay。儘管目前發生了這麼多事情，你們在毛利率方面似乎執行得非常好。我想你們在第一季（Q1）毛利率比指引中點高出超過 100 個基點。你們對第二季（Q2）的指引仍是超過 60% 的季度，儘管目前發生了這麼多事情。所以我的問題是：這主要是因為你們最大客戶缺席，或至少其營收占比比以往小，從而帶來更好的產品組合？還是——我知道你們在做很多事情——是否有任何可持續的因素，能把毛利率推升到高於你們長期模型的水準？

Yes. So in Q1, it was really a function of product mix and really operational efficiencies and execution that drove us beyond what we guided in Q2 and beyond. Fundamentally, we were growing IA; LitePoint is growing, as examples. And in 2022, we see those businesses having higher than corporate average margins.

是的。所以在第一季（Q1），主要是產品組合，以及營運效率與執行力，讓我們的表現超過了我們對第二季（Q2）及之後所給的指引。從根本上來說，我們的 IA 在成長；例如 LitePoint 也在成長。而在 2022 年，我們看到這些業務的毛利率高於公司平均水準。

I do believe that as we continue to work -- we have plans and we're working towards margin plans that are accretive. But let me remind you that there's been significant inflation and component costs and labor are increasing. So we feel like we manage the business to a 59% to 60% gross margin over the midterm. We have internal plans that are challenging those to make them higher, but we're also realistic about some of the headwinds in play in the environment.

我確實相信，隨著我們持續推進——我們有計畫，並正朝著具增益（accretive）的毛利率計畫努力。但我也要提醒你，通膨顯著，零組件成本與人力成本都在上升。因此我們覺得，在中期我們會以 59% 到 60% 的毛利率來管理業務。我們內部有計畫在挑戰這些目標、希望把它們做得更高，但我們也對環境中存在的一些逆風保持務實。

And we have Joe Moore of Morgan Stanley.

接下來是摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的 Joe Moore。

In terms of the supply constraints that you have, can you kind of frame that competitively? I feel like last year, you had sort of a better supply situation than Advantest did? Is that still the case? And any ramifications for market share in the more transactional parts of the business?

就你們面臨的供應限制而言，你能否從競爭角度幫我們框定一下？我覺得去年你們的供應狀況似乎比 Advantest 更好？現在仍是如此嗎？以及這對業務中較偏交易型（transactional）的部分之市占率有何影響？

Well, we're not inside Advantest to know a lot. But what we do know from the outside is their backlog's close to a year. Their customers are forced to order in advance around a year. And so yes, apparently, whatever is going on in terms of supply chain strategy, it's been slightly more favorable on our side.

嗯，我們不在 Advantest 內部，所以不了解太多。但我們從外部所知道的是，他們的積壓訂單（backlog）接近一年。他們的客戶被迫要提前大約一年下單。所以是的，顯然在供應鏈策略方面，不管他們那邊發生了什麼，我們這邊相對稍微更有利一些。

But we've worked this since 2019, 2018, sort of -- as a sort of a business continuity planning exercise around a whole series of things that could have gone wrong in the world, we never anticipated COVID but generally built up inventory resilience and backups that have fared well for us for 2 years.

但我們從 2019 年、2018 年就開始做這件事——作為一項業務持續營運（business continuity）規劃演練，針對一系列可能在世界上出錯的事情；我們從未預期 COVID，但整體而言，我們建立了庫存韌性與備援，過去兩年對我們很有幫助。

So it kind of -- we've been hoping we would get through all of this without any significant bottlenecks. And we're seeing our first sort of headwind here in test at about a $40 million bottleneck in Q2. So 5% of our revenue roughly. We might have been able to increase revenue 5%.

所以——我們一直希望能在沒有任何重大瓶頸的情況下度過這一切。而我們現在在測試（test）業務上看到第一個逆風：第二季（Q2）大約有 4,000 萬美元的瓶頸。大約占我們營收的 5%。我們本來可能可以把營收提高 5%。

And maybe that's going to be about the percentage through the year that we're going to be bottlenecked. We hope that we can keep it at that, keep lead times in sort of a 6-month range in test. And incrementally, get some of Advantest customers to consider us as a more responsive supplier. We'll see.

而且也許今年整年我們被瓶頸限制的比例大概就是這個百分比。我們希望能把它維持在這個水準，讓測試（test）的交期維持在大約 6 個月的範圍內。並且逐步讓一些 Advantest 的客戶把我們視為更具回應速度的供應商來考慮。我們再看看。

And next, we have Sidney Ho of Deutsche Bank.

接下來是德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）的 Sidney Ho。

Just one question for me. Related to your largest customer, are you still expecting them to be a 10% revenue this year? And given normally, you have some good visibility into them in about this time April, June -- April, May time frame. Is there much variability for the rest of this year?

我這邊只有一個問題。關於你們最大客戶，你們今年仍預期他們會占營收 10% 嗎？而且考量到通常你們在每年這個時間點——4 月、6 月——4 月、5 月這段時間，對他們會有不錯的能見度。今年剩餘時間是否存在很大的變動性？

Yes. Sidney, it's Sanjay. Thanks for that question. So right now, our expectation is that we will not have that large customer be over 10%, consistent with what we thought in January.

是的，Sidney，我是 Sanjay。謝謝你的問題。所以目前我們的預期是，那位大客戶今年不會超過 10%，與我們在 1 月的看法一致。

And I think on the, is there anything for the rest of the year? I think for 2Q and 3Q, no, it's pretty locked in. 4Q, frankly, is a wildcard because that in past years has been a surprise for us. It depends on sort of the ramp in 2022, the early silicon prove-outs and all kinds of factors and other products that might be launching. So fourth quarter is kind of still opaque to us. So I would say that if there's a potential for something in fourth quarter that we might not see yet, yes. But we'll be somewhat constrained there too, based on the earlier supply discussions.

至於你問今年剩餘時間是否還有什麼變數？我認為第二季（2Q）和第三季（3Q）沒有，基本上已經很確定了。第四季（4Q）坦白說是個變數，因為過去幾年那往往會讓我們感到意外。這取決於 2022 年的放量節奏、早期矽晶驗證（silicon prove-outs）以及各種因素，還有可能推出的其他產品。所以第四季對我們來說仍然不太明朗。我會說，如果第四季有一些我們現在還看不到的潛在變化，是的，有可能。但基於先前對供應的討論，我們在那裡也會受到一定限制。

And I see no further questions in the queue. I will turn the conference back over to Mr. Blanchard. Sir, you may continue.

我看到隊列中沒有進一步的問題。我將把電話會議交回給 Blanchard 先生。先生，您可以繼續。

Well, for the first time in over 40 quarters, we're finished in early. Thanks, everybody, for joining us. Look forward to talking to you in the days and weeks ahead. Bye-bye.

嗯，超過 40 個季度以來第一次，我們提早結束。謝謝各位加入我們。期待在接下來的幾天與幾週內再與各位交流。再見。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect, and have a pleasant day.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與。您現在可以掛線，祝您有美好的一天。