泰瑞達 (TER) 2022 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Q1 2022 Teradyne, Inc. Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Mr. Andy Blanchard. Mr. Blanchard, the floor is yours.

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 2022 年第一季度泰瑞達公司收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。 （操作員說明）我現在想把今天的會議交給你的演講者，安迪布蘭查德先生。布蘭查德先生，地板是你的。

Thank you, Chris. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our discussion of Teradyne's most recent financial results. I'm joined this morning by our CEO, Mark Jagiela; and our CFO, Sanjay Mehta. Following our opening remarks, we'll provide details of our performance for 2022's first quarter, along with our outlook for the second quarter of 2022.

謝謝你，克里斯。大家早上好，歡迎來到我們關於泰瑞達最新財務業績的討論。今天早上，我們的首席執行官 Mark Jagiela 加入了我的行列；和我們的首席財務官 Sanjay Mehta。在我們的開場白之後，我們將提供 2022 年第一季度業績的詳細信息，以及我們對 2022 年第二季度的展望。

The press release containing our first quarter results was issued last evening. We're providing slides on the investor page of the website that may be helpful to you in following the discussion. Replays of this call will be available via the same page after the call ends.

包含我們第一季度業績的新聞稿於昨晚發布。我們在網站的投資者頁面上提供了幻燈片，可能對您進行討論有所幫助。通話結束後，將通過同一頁面重播此通話。

The matters that we discuss today will include forward-looking statements that involve risk factors that could cause Teradyne's results to differ materially from management's current expectations. We encourage you to review the safe harbor statement contained in our earnings release as well as our most recent SEC filings. Additionally, those forward-looking statements are made as of today, and we take no obligation to update them as a result of developments occurring after this call.

我們今天討論的事項將包括涉及風險因素的前瞻性陳述，這些風險因素可能導致泰瑞達的業績與管理層當前的預期存在重大差異。我們鼓勵您查看我們的收益發布以及我們最近提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中包含的安全港聲明。此外，這些前瞻性陳述是在今天做出的，我們沒有義務因為這次電話會議後發生的事態發展而對其進行更新。

During today's call, we'll make reference to non-GAAP financial measures. We've posted additional information concerning those non-GAAP financial measures, including reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure where available on the Investor page of the website.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將參考非 GAAP 財務指標。我們已經發布了有關這些非公認會計原則財務指標的更多信息，包括與網站投資者頁面上最直接可比的公認會計原則財務指標的對賬。

Looking ahead, between now and our next earnings call, Teradyne expects to participate in technology or industrial-focused investor conferences hosted by Cowen, Luke Capital, Bank of America, Stifel and Bernstein.

展望未來，從現在到我們的下一次財報電話會議，泰瑞達預計將參加由 Cowen、Luke Capital、美國銀行、Stifel 和 Bernstein 主辦的以技術或工業為重點的投資者會議。

Now let's get on with the rest of the agenda. First, Mark will comment on our recent results and the market conditions as we enter the new quarter. Sanjay will then offer more details on our quarterly results, along with our guidance for the second quarter. We'll then answer your questions, and this call is scheduled for 1 hour. Mark?

現在讓我們繼續議程的其餘部分。首先，馬克將在我們進入新季度時評論我們最近的業績和市場狀況。然後，桑傑將提供有關我們季度業績的更多細節，以及我們對第二季度的指導。然後我們將回答您的問題，本次電話會議時間為 1 小時。標記？

Hello, everyone, and thanks for joining us. Today, I'll summarize our Q1 results, review current market conditions, and provide an update on Q2 and the full year. Sanjay will then take you through the financial details, including our outlook for the second quarter.

大家好，感謝您加入我們。今天，我將總結我們的第一季度業績，回顧當前的市場狀況，並提供第二季度和全年的最新情況。然後，桑傑將帶您了解財務細節，包括我們對第二季度的展望。

The first quarter played out as expected from a financial perspective. We delivered results toward the high end of guidance as we cleared a few more supply chain bottlenecks than expected.

從財務角度來看，第一季度的表現符合預期。由於我們清除了比預期更多的供應鏈瓶頸，我們交付的結果接近指導的高端。

As outlined in January, we expect revenue growth throughout the year as we build toward 2023 and the transition to 3-nanometer. Consequently, we expect roughly 7% to 9% sequential quarter-over-quarter growth throughout the year.

正如 1 月份所述，隨著我們向 2023 年和向 3 納米的過渡，我們預計全年收入將增長。因此，我們預計全年環比增長約為 7% 至 9%。

Since January, we've seen incremental strengthening of demand for Semi Test and wireless in the areas of automotive, memory, WiFi 6c and 7. On the other hand, for the first time in 2 years, supply chain challenges are materially impacting our Semi Test shipments. This is reflected in our wider-than-normal revenue guidance range in Q2. Sanjay will describe these details shortly.

自 1 月以來，我們看到汽車、內存、WiFi 6c 和 7 領域對 Semi Test 和無線的需求逐漸增強。另一方面，供應鏈挑戰兩年來首次對我們的 Semi 產生重大影響測試出貨。這反映在我們第二季度超出正常的收入指導範圍。 Sanjay 將很快描述這些細節。

From a full year market perspective, we estimate the SOC market is trending to the high end of the $4.6 billion to $5 billion range we discussed in January. Strengthening automotive test demand is one element driving the market increase as both per car content and unit complexity are growing quickly. The accelerating move to electric vehicles is a key part of this increase with EVs growing at a 20% plus CAGR while the chip content of these vehicles is running more than 3x compared to gas-powered cars.

從全年市場的角度來看，我們估計 SOC 市場正趨向於我們在 1 月份討論的 46 億美元至 50 億美元範圍的高端。加強汽車測試需求是推動市場增長的一個因素，因為每輛車的內容和單元復雜性都在迅速增長。加速轉向電動汽車是這一增長的關鍵部分，電動汽車以 20% 以上的複合年增長率增長，而這些汽車的芯片含量是汽油動力汽車的 3 倍以上。

This year, we are seeing particular strength emerging in high-end automotive ADAS processors. Complexity of these processors is approaching the level of high-end cellphone applications processors. Additionally, high-end ADAS processors have about a 3 to 4x longer test time due to the more stringent test requirements for devices used in automotive safety applications. Furthermore, there are usually multiple ADAS processors per vehicle, amplifying the unit demand. Combining the enhanced EV semiconductor content with these ADAS trends, we expect the automotive test market to outgrow the core test market for the receivable future.

今年，我們看到高端汽車 ADAS 處理器的實力尤為突出。這些處理器的複雜性正在接近高端手機應用處理器的水平。此外，由於汽車安全應用中使用的設備的測試要求更加嚴格，高端 ADAS 處理器的測試時間大約延長了 3 到 4 倍。此外，每輛車通常有多個 ADAS 處理器，從而放大了單位需求。將增強的 EV 半導體內容與這些 ADAS 趨勢相結合，我們預計汽車測試市場的增長將超過應收賬款未來的核心測試市場。

Another area of growth is in hyperscaler silicon development. While the material test revenue impact from these complex chips is in 2023 and beyond, both the complexity and pace of development is accelerating. This has been a focused investment area for us over the last 18 months, and we are pleased with our win work -- sorry, pleased with our win rate for these new opportunities.

另一個增長領域是超大規模芯片開發。雖然這些複雜芯片對材料測試收入的影響是在 2023 年及以後，但複雜性和開發速度都在加快。在過去的 18 個月裡，這一直是我們關注的投資領域，我們對我們的成功工作感到滿意——抱歉，對我們在這些新機會中的成功率感到滿意。

Shifting to the memory test market. Our market size estimate for the year remains at about $1 billion. But within that, we have seen the DRAM demand soften a bit, offset by an increase in flash demand.

轉向內存測試市場。我們對今年的市場規模估計仍然在 10 億美元左右。但在此期間，我們看到 DRAM 需求略有下降，但被閃存需求的增加所抵消。

In System Test, defense and aerospace and production board test groups collectively grew over 30% from Q1 '21 on strong automotive board test demand and program buying in defense and aerospace.

在系統測試中，國防和航空航天以及生產電路板測試組從 21 年第一季度起總共增長了 30% 以上，原因是強大的汽車電路板測試需求以及國防和航空航天領域的程序購買。

In Storage Test, sales were down 28% as expected versus 1Q of '21. Customer concentration here causes this lumpiness, but the long-term complexity and unit demand drivers remain in place.

在 Storage Test 中，與 21 年第一季度的預期相比，銷售額下降了 28%。這裡的客戶集中導致了這種不穩定，但長期的複雜性和單位需求驅動因素仍然存在。

Our wireless test business at LitePoint remains very healthy with sales growing 26% year-over-year in Q1. Strong demand for emerging WiFi 6c and WiFi 7 standards is driving this growth and the outlook for the year.

我們在 LitePoint 的無線測試業務仍然非常健康，第一季度銷售額同比增長 26%。對新興 WiFi 6c 和 WiFi 7 標準的強勁需求正在推動這一增長和今年的前景。

LifePoint's strategy delivers high throughput, easy-to-deploy test solutions for the full array of wireless standards. Our chipset test library approach to programming allows customers to shorten their time to market and achieve superior test economics for these emerging standards.

LifePoint 的戰略為各種無線標準提供高吞吐量、易於部署的測試解決方案。我們的芯片組測試庫編程方法使客戶能夠縮短產品上市時間，並針對這些新興標準實現卓越的測試經濟性。

Moving to Industrial Automation. Group revenues were up 29% from Q1 of last year. Demand in North America was particularly strong with 55% growth year-over-year. While we cleared some supply issues at UR rate in the quarter, IA shipments overall continue to be constrained by material shortages.

轉向工業自動化。集團收入較去年第一季度增長 29%。北美的需求尤其強勁，同比增長 55%。雖然我們在本季度以 UR 率解決了一些供應問題，但整體 IA 出貨量繼續受到材料短缺的限制。

Globally, the PMIs for the U.S. and Europe remain over 50, while in China, the PMI dipped below 50 in March. We are closely watching to confirm that China data point as a short-term COVID lockdown issue and anticipate recovery in 3Q and 4Q.

在全球範圍內，美國和歐洲的採購經理人指數保持在 50 以上，而在中國，採購經理人指數在 3 月份跌至 50 以下。我們正在密切關注以確認中國數據點是一個短期的 COVID 鎖定問題，並預計在 3Q 和 4Q 復甦。

Similarly, the conflict in Ukraine slowed EU demand in March and has the potential to impact the European industrial activity throughout the year. While we expect these constraints to continue in 2Q, we do expect IA growth rates to increase through the year as supply constraints ease, AutoGuide begins to ramp shipments and UR and MiR see increased growth on China and EU recovery.

同樣，烏克蘭的衝突在 3 月份減緩了歐盟的需求，並有可能影響全年的歐洲工業活動。雖然我們預計這些限制將在第二季度繼續存在，但我們確實預計隨著供應限制的緩解、AutoGuide 開始增加出貨量以及 UR 和 MiR 看到中國和歐盟復甦的增長，IA 增長率將在全年增加。

At UR, our OEM welding application continued on a tear with 1Q growth of over 100% compared to 1 year ago. The U.S. geography was also strong with over 50% year-over-year growth. Our UR+ program of plug-and-play applications for our cobots is passing in the 400-product milestone this quarter. Each of these applications leverages an independent third-party developer's knowledge of a specific market vertical to solve a specific problem. This application is then certified by UR so our customers can deploy automation solutions quickly by spending less time on programming and integration work. The resulting network effect is a powerful differentiator for us, and we continue to invest to support this growing army of developers.

在 UR，我們的 OEM 焊接應用繼續增長，與 1 年前相比，第一季度增長超過 100%。美國的地理位置也很強勁，同比增長超過 50%。我們的協作機器人即插即用應用程序 UR+ 計劃在本季度通過了 400 種產品的里程碑。這些應用程序中的每一個都利用獨立的第三方開發人員對特定垂直市場的了解來解決特定問題。該應用程序隨後通過了 UR 認證，因此我們的客戶可以通過減少編程和集成工作的時間來快速部署自動化解決方案。由此產生的網絡效應對我們來說是一個強大的差異化因素，我們將繼續投資以支持這個不斷壯大的開發者隊伍。

At MiR, we are seeing two positive trends emerge as we grow the business. First, we are seeing a steady movement toward higher payload, higher ASP AMRs. In 2020, about 10% of our sales were above the 500-kilogram payload range. This moved to 22% in 2021. And in Q1, we saw over 30% of our sales in this class. This represents a broadening of AMR applications to a wider range of material handling tests and manufacturing and logistics.

在 MiR，隨著業務的發展，我們看到了兩個積極的趨勢。首先，我們看到了向更高有效載荷、更高 ASP AMR 的穩步發展。 2020 年，我們約有 10% 的銷售額超過了 500 公斤的有效載荷範圍。到 2021 年，這一比例上升到 22%。在第一季度，我們看到超過 30% 的銷售額來自該類別。這代表 AMR 應用擴展到更廣泛的材料處理測試以及製造和物流。

Second, we are seeing the trend toward both growing fleet sizes and increasing multifactory deployments at major customers. Within these environments, our fleet management software is an increasingly important product differentiator. These larger customers also have demanding uptime and support requirements, which also plays to our strength as MiR is leveraging Teradyne's global support and large account experience to meet these customers' needs in ways that smaller players can't.

其次，我們看到了車隊規模不斷擴大和主要客戶的多工廠部署增加的趨勢。在這些環境中，我們的車隊管理軟件是一個越來越重要的產品差異化因素。這些大客戶也有苛刻的正常運行時間和支持要求，這也發揮了我們的優勢，因為 MiR 正在利用泰瑞達的全球支持和大客戶經驗來滿足這些客戶的需求，這是小公司無法做到的。

With one quarter of 2022 in the books, the year is unfolding roughly in line with our forecast. The incrementally stronger demand in test is being balanced by supply constraints. Longer term, I am encouraged by the continued strength in WFE investments, which fuels our growth; the progress from industry leaders on 3-nanometer technology; the growing opportunity for our human scale automation projects and the resilience of Teradyne's global team and our partners that are enabling us to muscle through some very tough supply and operational constraints.

在 2022 年四分之一的情況下，這一年的發展大致符合我們的預測。不斷增加的測試需求正被供應限制所平衡。從長遠來看，我對 WFE 投資的持續強勁感到鼓舞，這推動了我們的增長；行業領導者在 3 納米技術方面的進展；我們的人工規模自動化項目的機會越來越大，泰瑞達全球團隊和我們的合作夥伴的彈性使我們能夠克服一些非常嚴峻的供應和運營限制。

And before closing, I want to note an important milestone at Teradyne. Mike Bradley will retire from our Board of Directors in May. Mike's Teradyne career spans over 40 years, including 10 years as CEO, helping shape Teradyne's products, business model and culture. Mike has had an incredible impact on our company, our customers and shareholders, and I'm especially appreciative for the help he's given me along the way. Thanks, Mike.

在結束之前，我想指出泰瑞達的一個重要里程碑。 Mike Bradley 將於 5 月從我們的董事會退休。 Mike 在泰瑞達的職業生涯跨越 40 多年，其中包括 10 年擔任首席執行官，幫助塑造泰瑞達的產品、商業模式和文化。 Mike 對我們的公司、我們的客戶和股東產生了不可思議的影響，我特別感謝他在此過程中給予我的幫助。謝謝，邁克。

Sanjay will now take you through the financial details. Sanjay?

Sanjay 現在將帶您了解財務細節。桑傑？

Thank you, Mark. Good morning, everyone. Today, I'll provide details on our Q1 results, offer additional color on the operating environment, including the supply line update and describe our Q2 outlook.

謝謝你，馬克。大家，早安。今天，我將提供我們第一季度業績的詳細信息，為運營環境提供額外的色彩，包括供應線更新，並描述我們的第二季度展望。

Now to Q1. First quarter sales were $755 million, with non-GAAP EPS of $0.98. Non-GAAP gross margins were 60.2% and our non-GAAP operating expenses were $248 million, slightly below our guidance due to slower-than-planned hiring. Non-GAAP operating profit rate was 27.4%. We had no 10% customers in the quarter. The tax rate, excluding discrete items for the quarter was 16% on both a GAAP and non-GAAP basis. Please note, you should now use this for the full year tax rate as well.

現在到第一季度。第一季度銷售額為 7.55 億美元，非公認會計原則每股收益為 0.98 美元。非 GAAP 毛利率為 60.2%，我們的非 GAAP 運營費用為 2.48 億美元，由於招聘速度低於計劃，略低於我們的指引。非美國通用會計準則營業利潤率為 27.4%。本季度我們沒有 10% 的客戶。按公認會計原則和非公認會計原則計算，本季度不包括離散項目的稅率均為 16%。請注意，您現在也應該將其用於全年稅率。

Looking at the results from a business unit perspective. Semi Test revenue of $482 million was down 9% from Q1 '21 as expected. SOC revenue was $387 million driven by strength and mobility in compute end markets. Memory revenue was $96 million, driven by flash final test and DRAM wafer sort. System Test group had revenue of $119 million, which was down 11% year-over-year, again, as expected. Storage Test sales, including HDD and system-level test solutions were $68 million in the quarter, down from $95 million in Q1 '21. Defense and aerospace and production board test grew year-on-year. At LitePoint, revenue of $52 million was up 26% from prior year due primarily to strong shipments of WiFi and UWB test systems.

從業務部門的角度來看結果。正如預期的那樣，Semi Test 收入為 4.82 億美元，比 21 年第一季度下降了 9%。受計算終端市場實力和移動性的推動，SOC 收入為 3.87 億美元。受閃存最終測試和 DRAM 晶圓分類的推動，內存收入為 9600 萬美元。 System Test 集團的收入為 1.19 億美元，同比下降 11%，再次符合預期。本季度存儲測試銷售額（包括 HDD 和系統級測試解決方案）為 6800 萬美元，低於 21 年第一季度的 9500 萬美元。國防和航空航天和生產板測試同比增長。 LitePoint 的收入為 5200 萬美元，較上年增長 26%，這主要歸功於 WiFi 和 UWB 測試系統的強勁出貨量。

Looking at our test portfolio overall. The positive demand environment, Mark noted, reinforces the trend line growth built into our 2024 earnings model. In Semi Test, growing device complexity supported by no transitions and unit growth will provide a long-term tailwind to that business. At LifePoint and in System Test, similar increases in complexity continue to drive growth.

整體來看我們的測試組合。馬克指出，積極的需求環境強化了我們 2024 年盈利模型中的趨勢線增長。在 Semi Test 中，沒有過渡和單位增長支持的不斷增長的設備複雜性將為該業務提供長期的順風。在 LifePoint 和 System Test 中，複雜性的類似增加繼續推動增長。

A couple of examples. One, LitePoint revenue in 2021 was approximately double the 2017 level. Two, our Storage Test business. Revenue in Storage Test has more than quadrupled from 2017 to 2021. At LitePoint, we expect growth to continue to be driven by more complex wireless standards for connectivity, sophisticated location tracking and security technologies and cellular applications. In Storage Test, growing chip complexity combined with higher density, hard disk drives are driving long-term growth.

幾個例子。一、LitePoint 2021 年的收入大約是 2017 年水平的兩倍。二，我們的存儲測試業務。從 2017 年到 2021 年，存儲測試的收入翻了兩番。在 LitePoint，我們預計增長將繼續受到更複雜的無線連接標準、複雜的位置跟踪和安全技術以及蜂窩應用程序的推動。在存儲測試中，隨著芯片複雜性的增加以及更高的密度，硬盤驅動器正在推動長期增長。

Now to Industrial Automation. Industrial Automation revenue of $103 million was up 29% year-over-year. This was ahead of what we planned in our Q1 guidance as we were able to work through several supply line constraints in the quarter at UR. I'll also note that we expect IA revenue to follow the historical pattern and grow as we move through the year.

現在到工業自動化。工業自動化收入為 1.03 億美元，同比增長 29%。這超出了我們在第一季度指南中的計劃，因為我們能夠在 UR 在本季度克服幾個供應線限制。我還要指出，我們預計 IA 收入將遵循歷史模式並隨著我們全年的發展而增長。

UR sales were $85 million in Q1, up 30% and year-over-year with the highest growth in North America. MiR sales were $17 million, up 22% from Q1 '21. As Mark noted, higher payload products with higher ASPs contributed to that growth, and we expect this trend to continue.

UR 第一季度銷售額為 8500 萬美元，同比增長 30%，在北美增長最快。 MiR 銷售額為 1700 萬美元，比 21 年第一季度增長 22%。正如 Mark 所指出的，具有更高 ASP 的更高有效載荷產品促成了這一增長，我們預計這一趨勢將持續下去。

Overall demand at both UR and MiR remained strong as labor availability and rising costs make the financial case for our human scale automation compelling. But as noted, we are watching for the impacts of COVID events in China and the Russian-Ukraine war closely.

UR 和 MiR 的整體需求仍然強勁，因為勞動力的可用性和不斷上漲的成本使我們的人力規模自動化的財務案例引人注目。但如前所述，我們正在密切關注 COVID 事件對中國和俄烏戰爭的影響。

From a financial perspective in IA, the group was breakeven on a non-GAAP operating basis in the first quarter. And for the full year, we expect to operate in the 5% to 15% range we discussed in past calls, with 2022 trending towards the low end of the range. Recall in 2021, IA delivered a 4% non-GAAP operating profit for the full year.

從 IA 的財務角度來看，該集團在第一季度在非公認會計準則運營基礎上實現了盈虧平衡。全年，我們預計將在過去電話會議中討論的 5% 至 15% 範圍內運行，2022 年將趨向該範圍的低端。回顧 2021 年，IA 全年實現了 4% 的非公認會計原則營業利潤。

As noted in the past, with market penetration for cobots and AMRs below 3% and high market growth, our strategy is to prioritize growth over obtaining model profits. Simply put, we are investing to capture these markets as we see significant growth beyond the midterm.

正如過去所指出的，隨著協作機器人和 AMR 的市場滲透率低於 3% 以及高市場增長，我們的戰略是優先考慮增長而不是獲得模型利潤。簡而言之，我們正在投資以佔領這些市場，因為我們看到中期之後的顯著增長。

Shifting to supply. While the demand environment is strong, supply issues are getting progressively worse. We continue to manage through a very challenging supply environment as we have for the past 2 years. Our supply management operations teams and partners have done an incredible job, including navigating through a multi-week plant shutdown at one of our major contract manufacturers in Q1. Fortunately, it was mid-quarter, and we had time to recover. Had the shutdown happened later in the quarter, the recovery could have shifted into the following quarter. It highlights the risk which will persist during the global COVID pandemic.

轉向供應。儘管需求環境強勁，但供應問題正在逐漸惡化。與過去 2 年一樣，我們將繼續應對極具挑戰性的供應環境。我們的供應管理運營團隊和合作夥伴完成了令人難以置信的工作，包括在第一季度我們的一家主要合同製造商關閉了數週的工廠。幸運的是，現在是季度中期，我們有時間恢復。如果關閉發生在本季度晚些時候，復甦可能會轉移到下一個季度。它強調了在全球 COVID 大流行期間將持續存在的風險。

In Q2, there is more demand to ship if we could align supply. Issues range from chip shortages to COVID-related delivery shutdowns. We're taking numerous actions to harden our supply chain, including expanding our production operations geographically, adding new geographically diverse suppliers, redesigning products to use available components and many other actions. However, even with these actions, we expect supply line constraints to remain an issue through at least the first half of 2023.

在第二季度，如果我們能夠調整供應，將會有更多的出貨需求。問題範圍從芯片短缺到與 COVID 相關的交付關閉。我們正在採取許多措施來加強我們的供應鏈，包括在地域上擴大我們的生產業務、增加新的地域多樣化的供應商、重新設計產品以使用可用組件以及許多其他措施。然而，即使採取了這些行動，我們預計供應線限制至少在 2023 年上半年仍將是一個問題。

Shifting to the balance sheet and cash flow. Our cash and marketable securities at the end of the quarter totaled $1.2 billion. We had $37 million in negative free cash flow in the quarter. Cash burn in the first quarter is typical for us as we pay variable compensation and profit sharing in the quarter. We spent $201 million and $18 million on buybacks and dividends, respectively, in Q1. As noted in January, we expect to purchase a minimum of $750 million -- sorry, $750 million of shares in 2022.

轉向資產負債表和現金流。本季度末，我們的現金和有價證券總額為 12 億美元。本季度我們有 3700 萬美元的負自由現金流。第一季度的現金消耗對我們來說是典型的，因為我們在該季度支付可變薪酬和利潤分享。我們在第一季度分別花費了 2.01 億美元和 1800 萬美元用於回購和分紅。如 1 月份所述，我們預計在 2022 年至少購買 7.5 億美元——抱歉，7.5 億美元的股票。

Regarding debt. To date, $384 million of convertible bonds have early converted in Q1. We paid $21 million to bondholders in the quarter.

關於債務。迄今為止，3.84 億美元的可轉換債券已在第一季度提前轉換。我們在本季度向債券持有人支付了 2100 萬美元。

Now to our outlook for Q2. As you've heard this morning, customer demand is strong in all parts of the business. Our guidance range is wider than normal as number of material shortages continues to expand. And while we've been successful to date in addressing these issues, the margin for error continues to narrow, and the guidance assumes we won't see extended shutdowns of our production facilities due to COVID.

現在來看我們對第二季度的展望。正如您今天早上所聽到的，客戶需求在業務的各個方面都很強勁。隨著材料短缺數量的不斷擴大，我們的指導範圍比正常範圍更廣。儘管迄今為止我們已經成功解決了這些問題，但錯誤的餘地繼續縮小，並且該指導假設我們不會看到我們的生產設施因 COVID 而延長關閉。

With that said, sales in Q2 are expected to be between $780 million and $870 million, with non-GAAP EPS in a range of $1 to $1.29 on 170 million diluted shares. The second quarter guidance excludes the amortization of acquired intangibles. Second quarter gross margins are estimated at 60% to 61%. OpEx is expected to run at 31% to 34% of second quarter sales. The non-GAAP operating profit rate at the midpoint of the second quarter guidance is 28%.

話雖如此，預計第二季度的銷售額將在 7.8 億美元至 8.7 億美元之間，非 GAAP 每股收益在 1 至 1.29 美元之間，稀釋後為 1.7 億股。第二季度指引不包括收購無形資產的攤銷。第二季度毛利率估計為 60% 至 61%。 OpEx 預計將佔第二季度銷售額的 31% 至 34%。第二季度指引中點的非美國通用會計準則營業利潤率為 28%。

Turning to the impact of inflation on our P&L. First, gross margins. We are seeing increased costs primarily in components and labor, both internally and at our partners. We're mitigating those increases through a variety of measures, including product pricing, operational efficiencies, multi-sourcing and seeing the benefit of our prior investments to reduce our bill of materials.

談到通貨膨脹對我們損益的影響。首先，毛利率。我們看到主要是組件和勞動力成本增加，無論是在內部還是在我們的合作夥伴處。我們正在通過各種措施來緩解這些增長，包括產品定價、運營效率、多源採購，以及看到我們先前投資減少材料清單的好處。

Our gross margin performance in Q1 and outlook for Q2 reflects our success to date with these measures. But I remind you, this is a very dynamic environment.

我們在第一季度的毛利率表現和第二季度的展望反映了我們迄今為止在這些措施方面取得的成功。但我提醒你，這是一個非常動態的環境。

On the OpEx front, we have planned for increased costs tied to inflation and we still plan on growing OpEx 11% to 13% over 2021 as noted in January.

在運營支出方面，我們計劃增加與通貨膨脹相關的成本，我們仍計劃在 2021 年將運營支出增長 11% 至 13%，如 1 月份所述。

Looking at our revenue profile for the year. The first half is shaping up a little bit better than expected with very tight supply. The second half is looking to be slightly up versus last year's second half, reasonably consistent with our expectations at the beginning of the year, even though test demand is incrementally higher. Supply issues may push some of that incremental demand into 2023.

查看我們今年的收入狀況。由於供應非常緊張，上半年情況好於預期。與去年下半年相比，下半年看起來會略有上升，這與我們年初的預期相當一致，儘管測試需求逐漸增加。供應問題可能會將部分增量需求推至 2023 年。

We expect third quarter revenues will grow high single digits from the Q2 level and Q4 will grow sequentially as well. Our current view is that the first half revenues will be 46% to 47% and second half revenues will be 53% to 54%.

我們預計第三季度收入將比第二季度高個位數增長，第四季度也將連續增長。我們目前的觀點是上半年收入將在 46% 到 47% 之間，下半年收入將在 53% 到 54% 之間。

To sum up, demand across the company remains strong and growing supply constraints are moderating our shipments more than at any other time since the pandemic began. We're expanding our playbook to address these issues, but it's a very dynamic playing field and we're calling a lot of audibles along the way.

總而言之，自大流行開始以來，整個公司的需求仍然強勁，而且不斷增長的供應限制正在減緩我們的出貨量。我們正在擴展我們的劇本來解決這些問題，但這是一個非常動態的競爭環境，我們在此過程中會呼籲很多聲音。

Our global teams in go-to-market operations, engineering and support functions continue to execute and collaborate in a challenging and dynamic environment to meet customer demand and deliver shareholder value. The passion is enjoyable to observe. Well done, team.

我們在上市運營、工程和支持職能方面的全球團隊繼續在充滿挑戰和動態的環境中執行和協作，以滿足客戶需求並為股東創造價值。這種激情是令人愉快的觀察。幹得好，團隊。

With that, I'll turn things back to Andy.

有了這個，我會把事情轉回到安迪身上。

Thanks, Sanjay. Chris, we'd now like to take some questions. And as a reminder, please let me yourself to one question and a follow-up.

謝謝，桑傑。克里斯，我們現在想回答一些問題。提醒一下，請讓我自己回答一個問題和跟進。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from C.J. Muse of Evercore.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Evercore 的 C.J. Muse。

I guess first question, regarding your largest customer heading into 2023, and obviously, that's a long time from now. But curious, as you think about the move to 3-nanometer, how are you thinking about test demand as it relates to units versus complexity? And I guess the worry in the marketplace is that the adoption of 3 could be spread out over 2 years as opposed to 1, and that would reduce kind of the demand for testers from you guys. So would love to hear how you're thinking about that. And obviously, the caveat is it very early to have a great view there?

我想第一個問題是關於您最大的客戶進入 2023 年，顯然，這距離現在很長一段時間。但好奇的是，當您考慮轉向 3 納米時，您如何看待與單元與復雜性相關的測試需求？而且我猜市場上的擔憂是採用 3 可能會在 2 年內而不是 1 年，這會減少你們對測試人員的需求。所以很想听聽你是怎麼想的。顯然，需要注意的是，現在在那裡欣賞美景還為時過早嗎？

Yes, C.J., it's really early on that. But first of all, I think there's two parts of your question. I think overall, we're looking at 3-nanometer in 2023 as mostly a complexity growth equation versus a unit growth driver in the cellphone device arena.

是的，C.J.，現在還為時過早。但首先，我認為你的問題有兩個部分。我認為總體而言，我們將 2023 年的 3 納米視為主要是複雜性增長方程，而不是手機設備領域的單位增長驅動因素。

I think the other part of your question is, well, what if the adoption is partial for 3 nanometer. Certain devices go to 3 and other ones sort of lag. I think that is something we've seen before in iPads and other kinds of products in the market where they bifurcate migration.

我認為您的問題的另一部分是，如果採用部分 3 納米會怎樣。某些設備達到 3 和其他一些滯後。我認為這是我們之前在 iPad 和市場上其他類型的產品中看到的，它們在這些產品中分叉遷移。

If and when that ever occurs, there could be a 1-year depressed demand for test. But then in subsequent years, those sort of bifurcated product lines kind of then move in lockstep again north, maybe one's waterfall back a year, but the complexity growth resumes thereafter. So it's all hypothetical, but something like that would have an impact.

如果發生這種情況，測試需求可能會下降 1 年。但在隨後的幾年裡，那些分叉的產品線又步調一致地向北移動，也許是一年前的瀑布，但此後復雜性增長又恢復了。所以這都是假設的，但類似的事情會產生影響。

Very helpful. I guess for my second question, just trying to think through your kind of stronger second half versus first half. And obviously, the robotics piece is helping on that. But this is the first time I think I've ever seen you guys have kind of a stronger outlook for Semi Test. Into the back half, where normally Q2 seasonally is your strongest quarter. So is that all a factor of supply constraints? Or are there other drivers to that change in trend?

很有幫助。我想我的第二個問題，只是想通過你的那種更強的下半場與上半場。顯然，機器人技術正在幫助解決這個問題。但這是我第一次看到你們對 Semi Test 有更強的前景。進入後半部分，通常第二季度是你最強的季度。那麼，這都是供應限制的一個因素嗎？或者還有其他驅動這種趨勢變化的因素嗎？

Well, there's three things going on there. The biggest thing -- Q2 is usually large because our largest customer has a big tooling peak in 2Q and 3Q. So that's absent. But the other thing is that the visibility is a bit longer now with lead times out. Customers are ordering a little bit in advance for capacity. So we do see a little more of what's to come towards the back end of this year and early '23. And it sort of aligns to this complexity growth related to new nodes that we're seeing.

嗯，那裡發生了三件事。最大的事情——第二季度通常很大，因為我們最大的客戶在第二季度和第三季度有一個很大的模具高峰。所以這是不存在的。但另一件事是，隨著交貨時間的延長，現在的可見性有點長。客戶提前一點訂購容量。因此，我們確實看到了今年年底和 23 年初將會發生的更多事情。它有點與我們看到的與新節點相關的複雜性增長相一致。

So I think this year is a little unique in that absent the mobility bubble we usually see in the summer and adding in the move towards this node transition next year, we get this more linear ramp through the year of demand.

所以我認為今年有點獨特，因為沒有我們通常在夏天看到的流動性泡沫，加上明年向這個節點過渡的趨勢，我們在需求年中獲得了這種更加線性的增長。

Our next question comes from Mehdi Hosseini of SFG.

我們的下一個問題來自 SFG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

I want to go back to your outlook, especially looking into next year, and you made a reference to WFE, which is very positive, given all the investment this year. But it also appears that the investment for trailing edge is growing much faster and particularly a higher level of investment in China. What I want to ask you is how are you positioned in China, especially for with OSAT houses? And is there any incremental opportunity for share gain? And I have a follow-up.

我想回到你的前景，特別是展望明年，你提到了 WFE，考慮到今年的所有投資，這是非常積極的。但也有跡象表明，後緣投資的增長速度要快得多，尤其是在中國的投資水平更高。我想問您的是，您在中國的定位如何，尤其是在 OSAT 公司方面？是否有任何增加份額的機會？我有一個後續行動。

Yes. I think in China, we're positioned very well in legacy nonleading edge. The one place in China, we're not positioned well is with Huawei and Huawei-associated companies, which tends to -- are trying to skew as best they can toward more leading-edge positions.

是的。我認為在中國，我們在傳統非領先優勢方面的定位非常好。在中國，我們定位不佳的一個地方是華為和與華為相關的公司，它們傾向於 - 正試圖盡可能地向更領先的位置傾斜。

But to the extent China will continue to grow on trailing edge -- but overall, our share of, let's say, the non-Huawei part of China is roughly the same as it is outside of China. So it's not a balloon or an anchor, so to speak. We're kind of going to float up and down there, I think, with investment and demand.

但在某種程度上，中國將繼續在落後的情況下增長——但總的來說，我們在中國非華為部分的份額與在中國以外的部分大致相同。所以它不是氣球或錨，可以這麼說。我認為，隨著投資和需求，我們會在那裡上下浮動。

Okay. So nothing really out of ordinary. If they are indeed investing more, it should trickle down to the back end and you as one of the two. Okay.

好的。所以沒有什麼不尋常的。如果他們確實投資更多，它應該會滲透到後端，而您將成為兩者中的一員。好的。

And then moving on to Industrial Automation. And thanks for color on ADAS incremental opportunity. But it also seems to me that in order for you to fully realize the synergies between your Semi Test and Industrial Automation for EV and ADAS application, you would need to have more of a software content. And I'm just curious if I'm thinking about this the right way? And whether you would have to go to the market and acquire software IP so that you can have a more comprehensive portfolio for these growthy end markets?

然後轉向工業自動化。並感謝 ADAS 增量機會的顏色。但在我看來，為了讓您充分實現電動汽車和 ADAS 應用的半測試和工業自動化之間的協同作用，您需要擁有更多的軟件內容。我只是好奇我是否以正確的方式思考這個問題？您是否必須進入市場並獲得軟件 IP，以便為這些快速增長的終端市場提供更全面的產品組合？

No, I don't see that, Mehdi. I think where we are positioned now, we're completely aligned to the technology trends in EV and ADAS and everything else there. So no, I don't see the need for that.

不，我看不到，邁赫迪。我認為我們現在所處的位置完全符合 EV 和 ADAS 以及其他所有領域的技術趨勢。所以不，我認為沒有必要。

And next, we have Timothy Arcuri of UBS.

接下來是瑞銀的蒂莫西·阿庫裡（Timothy Arcuri）。

So Mark, you were saying that the SOC TAM is trending toward the high end of the $4.6 billion to $5 billion. I'm just wondering if you can give us some idea of sort of what end market's driving that the high end? I think last quarter, you gave us some breakdown. Compute, you thought would be $1.3 billion. I think you thought mobility would be $1.8 billion. Autos would be about $500 million. So can you just give us sort of what end market is driving that toward the high end? It sounds like Autos might be a little better.

所以馬克，你是說 SOC TAM 正朝著 46 億到 50 億美元的高端趨勢發展。我只是想知道你是否能給我們一些關於什麼終端市場推動高端市場的想法？我認為上個季度，你給了我們一些細分。計算，您認為將是 13 億美元。我想你認為流動性將是 18 億美元。汽車將約為 5 億美元。那麼，您能否告訴我們是什麼終端市場將其推向高端？聽起來Autos可能會好一點。

Sure. It's Sanjay here. I'll take that one. So we're seeing strength in -- incremental strength in compute and in Auto that's driving us to the high end.

當然。這裡是桑傑。我會拿那個。因此，我們在計算和汽車領域看到了實力，這將我們推向了高端。

Okay. And then I guess a question just around China. So are you seeing any impact or any pushouts or delays in shipment time lines from Chinese OSAT customers as a result of the lockdowns and maybe just as a result, also of weak demand in the consumer segment? So I mean, obviously, demand is still very strong if you look holistically. But if you look at the consumer markets and you look specifically in China, are you seeing any examples of customers delaying shipments of testers?

好的。然後我猜一個關於中國的問題。那麼，您是否看到中國 OSAT 客戶的發貨時間線有任何影響或任何推遲或延遲，這是由於封鎖，或者僅僅是由於消費領域需求疲軟的結果？所以我的意思是，很明顯，如果你從整體上看，需求仍然非常強勁。但如果你看看消費市場，特別是中國，你有沒有看到客戶延遲測試儀發貨的例子？

No, we're not seeing any tester real meaningful delays at all yet in China. We have seen in the Industrial Automation business, the robotics business, some slowdown in China. Sanjay referred to the Q1 performance there was a bit weak, and we're watching that. So that's more immediate. And as factories shutdown and things, we feel that. But I think on the test side, the headlights and the investments needed along the trend line are kind of obvious and compelling, and there's no yet any blips.

不，我們在中國還沒有看到任何測試人員真正有意義的延遲。我們已經看到工業自動化業務、機器人業務在中國出現了一些放緩。桑傑提到第一季度的表現有點弱，我們正在關注這一點。所以這更直接。隨著工廠關閉和其他事情，我們感覺到了。但我認為在測試方面，趨勢線所需的前照燈和投資是顯而易見且引人注目的，還沒有任何跡象。

And next, we have Brian Chin of Stifel.

接下來是 Stifel 的 Brian Chin。

I guess the first one focused on test. Given the supply challenges that you're discussing, do you think you're baking in enough conservatism on the '22 TAM outlook? And I ask in part because I think despite strong order rates, your competitor Advantest, they widened their 2022 TAM outlook, but at the lower, not higher end of the range. So kind of curious about that.

我猜第一個專注於測試。鑑於您正在討論的供應挑戰，您認為您對 '22 TAM 的前景是否足夠保守？我之所以這樣問，部分原因是我認為儘管訂單率很高，但您的競爭對手 Advantest 擴大了 2022 年 TAM 的前景，但處於範圍的低端，而不是高端。對此有點好奇。

And also, beyond your largest customer with [telegraphed] last call, have you seen any incremental signs of capacity digestion in the broader SOC -- mobile SOC market?

此外，除了您最後一次致電 [電報] 的最大客戶之外，您是否看到更廣泛的 SOC（移動 SOC 市場）容量消化的任何增量跡象？

So just a quick comment from me first, and I'll let Sanjay talk a little more about it. I do think that compared to Advantest, we're in a very different supply chain situation. You look at their backlog out at almost a year. There's a very, I think, limited ability for them to see a road to incremental revenue in the year whereas we're 6 months and less versus 1 year. And we do have capacity growth capability in the back half. So that's the difference, but I'll let Sanjay address the broader question.

所以我先簡短地評論一下，我會讓 Sanjay 多談一點。我確實認為，與 Advantest 相比，我們處於非常不同的供應鏈情況。你看看他們將近一年的積壓工作。我認為，他們在今年看到增加收入的道路的能力非常有限，而我們只有 6 個月或更短的時間，而不是 1 年。而且我們確實有後半部分的產能增長能力。所以這就是區別，但我會讓 Sanjay 解決更廣泛的問題。

Yes, I think overall, supply is getting tighter. As I've said on prior calls, I thought with substrate and fab capacity coming online in 2022, we'd be a little bit more in balance with supply and demand, but that hasn't been the case. As I said, our current view is that we see the tightening continuing into the first half of 2023.

是的，我認為總體而言，供應越來越緊張。正如我在之前的電話會議上所說的那樣，我認為隨著基板和晶圓廠產能在 2022 年上線，我們會更加平衡供需，但情況並非如此。正如我所說，我們目前的觀點是，我們認為緊縮政策將持續到 2023 年上半年。

And from an overall market perspective, we do believe that there is a constraining element of supply to meet the overall demand. And it's in the places where you'd expect in the semiconductor parts, FPGA linear logic, memory, other ASICs.

從整體市場的角度來看，我們確實認為存在供應限制因素來滿足整體需求。它位於您期望的半導體部件、FPGA 線性邏輯、內存和其他 ASIC 的地方。

Got it. And then as I missed the part, I think I asked about whether you're seeing any signs of digestion in the broader SOC mobile market?

知道了。然後因為我錯過了這一部分，我想我問你是否看到更廣泛的 SOC 移動市場有消化的跡象？

No, not really. And I think the demand is still strong and the request for shipments are not pushing out. So I don't see any signs yet in test of sort of slacking demand.

不，不是。而且我認為需求仍然強勁，出貨需求並未推出。所以我還沒有看到任何跡象表明需求疲軟。

Okay. Maybe just for my follow-up. In Industrial Automation, sorry if I missed this, but is sort of mid-30% plus still the bogey there in terms of growth rates? Obviously, talking about accelerated growth rates moving through the year. Improvements on your lead times, but also still some constraints, I think, was the discussion and also some -- want to see sort of how the pattern unfolds in China. So maybe can you discuss that and then also what that China exposure is? I think it's a fairly minority portion of the business, right?

好的。也許只是為了我的後續行動。在工業自動化中，如果我錯過了，很抱歉，但就增長率而言，30% 左右仍然是那裡的柏忌嗎？顯然，談論的是全年的加速增長率。改進你的交貨時間，但我認為，還有一些限制是討論的，還有一些——想看看這種模式在中國是如何展開的。那麼，也許你能討論一下，然後再討論一下中國的風險是什麼？我認為這是業務的一小部分，對吧？

Yes. So it's Sanjay here. So 35% plus is still our objective or our plan this year. It's progressing as we'd expect. I would say that, as Mark noted, China, which has traditionally been a very high-growth environment for IA, was slightly down year-on-year. And as Mark noted, we believe it's really tied to the plant shutdowns. So we're watching it very closely.

是的。所以這裡是桑傑。所以 35% 以上仍然是我們今年的目標或計劃。它正在按我們的預期進行。我想說的是，正如 Mark 所說，傳統上對 IA 來說一直是一個非常高增長的環境的中國同比略有下降。正如馬克所指出的，我們認為這確實與工廠停工有關。所以我們正在密切關注它。

I would say on the supply front, a large -- a significant portion of that range increase is tied to supply. With UR, the range is approximately, let's say, $20 million, which is really a supply-driven range.

我想說的是，在供應方面，很大一部分範圍的增加與供應有關。使用 UR，範圍大約是，比如說，2000 萬美元，這實際上是一個供應驅動的範圍。

And then secondly -- I'd say secondly, we are seeing supply from an IA perspective, lead times -- or sorry, our backlog will still be -- we expect it to be between 4 to 6 weeks as opposed to our objective of 1 to 2 weeks to keep it a fast turns business.

其次——我想說第二，我們從 IA 的角度來看供應，交貨時間——或者抱歉，我們的積壓仍將是——我們預計它將在 4 到 6 週之間，而不是我們的目標1 到 2 週，以保持它的快速轉變業務。

So I do think the China piece is roughly 10% of our overall IA business. So it is flatlined in Q1 kind of on growth. But part of how we get to 35 plus through the back end of the year is assuming some of this COVID stuff goes away in China and in Q3 and -- we're presuming it persists through second quarter. But Q3 and Q4, it goes away.

所以我確實認為中國部分約占我們整體 IA 業務的 10%。所以它在第一季度的增長中持平。但是，我們如何在今年年底達到 35+ 的部分原因是假設這些 COVID 的一些東西在中國和第三季度消失了，而且我們假設它會持續到第二季度。但是第三季度和第四季度，它消失了。

Okay. That's fair.

好的。這還算公平。

Our next question comes from Atif Malik of Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗的 Atif Malik。

Mark, you talked about weakness in the DRAM market. If you can just provide some more color. Is this because of DDR5 adoption pushed out because of the supply rapid delay? Or are you seeing something more?

馬克，你談到了 DRAM 市場的疲軟。如果你能提供更多的顏色。這是因為 DDR5 的採用因為供應迅速延遲而被推遲嗎？或者你看到更多的東西？

No, it's exactly that. DDR5 is moving slower than planned. It kind of server Sapphire Rapids delay. Nothing fundamental. The three elements of the memory market between DRAM wafer test final test and then flash wafer test final test kind of are 1/4, 1/4, 1/4 each of the total $1 billion TAM. There is a bit more tooling this year for DRAM wafer test, but that's nothing -- I think that's noise, not signal. And as I mentioned, we're seeing some strengthening in the flash side that's sort of making up more than the difference on the DDR5 weakness.

不，正是這樣。 DDR5 的發展速度比計劃的要慢。它有點服務器藍寶石急流延遲。沒有什麼根本的。 DRAM 晶圓測試最終測試和閃存晶圓測試最終測試之間的內存市場的三個要素分別是 10 億美元 TAM 的 1/4、1/4、1/4。今年有更多用於 DRAM 晶圓測試的工具，但這沒什麼——我認為那是噪音，而不是信號。正如我所提到的，我們看到閃存方面有所加強，這在某種程度上彌補了 DDR5 弱點的差異。

The other thing about memory that's very encouraging for us is that we've talked about our market share being about 40%, low 40s globally there. In China, which is still investing heavily and growing quite rapidly in memory, it's moving closer to the high 50s. So we've got some good potential here with DDR5 hopefully coming back next year with Sapphire Rapids and the continued investments going into China.

對我們來說非常令人鼓舞的另一件事是，我們談到我們的市場份額約為 40%，全球範圍內只有 40 多歲。在內存方面仍在大量投資并快速增長的中國，它正在接近 50 年代的高位。因此，我們在這裡擁有一些不錯的潛力，DDR5 有望在明年與 Sapphire Rapids 一起回歸，並繼續對中國進行投資。

Great. And as my follow-up, I want to go back to C.J.'s question earlier about the mobile compute adoption spread maybe over -- in a couple of years. That phone maker has publicly talked about facing physical limitations in creating a larger die to accommodate more transistors at 5-nanometer, which I don't believe was the driver in iPad-type decisions historically. So I mean, is it fair to assume that device maker could adopt 3-nanometer more widely moving forward given the limitations on the die side?

偉大的。作為我的後續行動，我想回到 C.J. 早些時候提出的關於移動計算採用率可能會在幾年內蔓延的問題。那家手機製造商曾公開談到在製造更大的芯片以容納更多 5 納米晶體管時面臨物理限制，我認為這不是歷史上 iPad 類型決策的驅動因素。所以我的意思是，考慮到芯片方面的限制，假設設備製造商可以更廣泛地採用 3 納米技術是否公平？

Yes, I think that's more likely. It was a hypothetical question, I think, that C.J. was asking. But I do think -- so just to walk it back a little bit. This year, we've seen a slackening demand in tester demand because the complexity growth is low in phone silicon, highly correlated with the fact that we're kind of in our third year of 5-nanometer production. And yes, you just can't afford to grow the die size. It doesn't make economic sense to grow the die size. And absent that, it's hard to get more transistors unless you do a node transition.

是的，我認為這種可能性更大。我認為，這是 C.J. 提出的假設性問題。但我確實認為 - 所以只是往回走一點。今年，我們看到測試儀需求放緩，因為手機芯片的複雜性增長較低，這與我們進入 5 納米生產的第三年這一事實高度相關。是的，您無法承受增加芯片尺寸的費用。增加裸片尺寸沒有經濟意義。如果沒有這一點，除非您進行節點轉換，否則很難獲得更多晶體管。

So there's a bit of a backlog and a pent-up demand to get to this next turn of the screw, the next node of 3 nanometer. So this all depends kind of on the yields of what 3-nanometer is going to look like. But on the other side of the argument, you could see a larger portfolio of devices driving to move to 3-nanometer next year and people will be competing for fab capacity if the yields prove to be good. And I think you want to be positioned with the customers who are in the front of the line on that fab capacity, which I hope we are. I think we are. But I would subscribe more to the fact that people are -- there's a pent-up demand, and it could swing the other way.

所以有一點積壓和被壓抑的需求來實現下一輪螺旋，下一個 3 納米節點。所以這一切都取決於3納米的產量。但在爭論的另一邊，你可能會看到明年會有更多的設備轉向 3 納米，如果產量證明是好的，人們將爭奪晶圓廠的產能。而且我認為您希望與那些在晶圓廠產能上處於領先地位的客戶一起定位，我希望我們是。我想我們是。但我更贊同人們存在的事實 - 有一個被壓抑的需求，它可能會以相反的方式擺動。

And next, we have Vivek Arya of Bank of America.

接下來是美國銀行的 Vivek Arya。

I just wanted to revisit this notion of the supply situation getting tighter. How do we reconcile that with your forecast of growing high single digit in Q2, Q3 and Q4 if the supply situation is getting tighter, how are you able to grow faster?

我只是想重新審視一下供應情況越來越緊張的概念。如果供應形勢越來越緊張，我們如何與您預測的 Q2、Q3 和 Q4 增長高個位數的預測相協調，您如何能夠更快地增長？

Well, we've been planning for it. I think a couple of things. We've been investing in multi-sourcing of components, geographically diversing. We've been building capacity really tied to our plans that we published with our earnings model. And you can see by our balance sheet, we're building inventory. So fundamentally, we're planning for it, and we're looking to execute.

嗯，我們一直在計劃。我認為有幾件事。我們一直在投資多元化的組件採購，地理多樣化。我們一直在建設與我們在收益模型中發布的計劃真正相關的能力。您可以從我們的資產負債表中看到，我們正在建立庫存。所以從根本上說，我們正在為此做計劃，並且我們正在尋求執行。

And the other thing we've been doing is some redesigns to remove some of the bottleneck parts. And as those redesigns sort of flow into the shipment stream in the second half of the year, that gives us some incremental flexibility. So it's usually -- it's a few critical parts that bottleneck us that go through mad scrambles, negotiations, phone calls and things to try to unlock some supply from the suppliers during the course of the quarter. And we've been largely successful for the past 2 years doing that. We're still able to grow here in Q2, doing that. It's just that the likely outcome is more and more sort of constraints on the top end of what we might otherwise be able to ship. So for example, in the second quarter, Sanjay, roughly how much revenue and test are we thinking we've bottlenecked because of the line of sight we have on supply?

我們一直在做的另一件事是重新設計以消除一些瓶頸部分。隨著這些重新設計在今年下半年流入出貨流，這給了我們一些增量的靈活性。因此，通常是一些關鍵部分阻礙了我們在本季度期間經歷瘋狂的爭奪、談判、電話和試圖從供應商那裡釋放一些供應的事情。在過去的兩年裡，我們在這方面取得了很大的成功。我們仍然能夠在第二季度在這裡增長，這樣做。只是可能的結果是越來越多的限制在我們原本可以交付的高端產品上。因此，例如，在第二季度，桑傑，我們認為由於我們對供應的視線，我們認為我們已經瓶頸了多少收入和測試？

Yes. So in test, I'd say it's in the $40 million range. And I'd say in IA, it's in the $10 million range. And that is outside of our high end of our range, which is really unprecedented for us.

是的。所以在測試中，我會說它在 4000 萬美元的範圍內。我會說在 IA，它在 1000 萬美元的範圍內。這超出了我們範圍的高端範圍，這對我們來說確實是前所未有的。

Right. So that gives you some flavor of the magnitude. And that test in the past quarters might have been $10 million kind of numbers, small, but it's going from $10 million to $40 million, that's significant. And we look out in Q3 and Q4, it's judgment still, but we still think everything that Sanjay says we've done positions us to grow with reasonable performance on clearing some of these critical parts and anticipating this constrained environment persisting and getting a little bit worse.

對。所以這給了你一些規模的味道。過去幾個季度的測試可能是 1000 萬美元的數字，很小，但從 1000 萬美元到 4000 萬美元，這很重要。我們在第三季度和第四季度展望，這仍然是判斷，但我們仍然認為 Sanjay 所說的我們所做的一切使我們在清除其中一些關鍵部分並預期這種受限環境持續存在並獲得一點點方面以合理的表現實現增長更差。

Very helpful. And then for my follow-up, Mark, I wanted to revisit this content growth argument when you move from one node to another. So a few questions on that. First, could you give us a range of how much your average content grew in prior cycles and mobile SOCs when your customer moved from one generation to another? Was it 10% to 15%? 15% to 20%? If you could just give us some sense of what that range has been historically.

很有幫助。然後在我的後續行動中，馬克，當你從一個節點移動到另一個節點時，我想重新審視這個內容增長論點。所以有幾個問題。首先，您能否告訴我們當您的客戶從一代到另一代時，您的平均內容在之前的周期和移動 SOC 中增長了多少？是 10% 到 15% 嗎？ 15% 到 20%？如果你能給我們一些關於這個範圍在歷史上的意義。

And the other thing I'm curious about is that will this require brand-new testers? Or can part of the deployed base be upgraded? Just how much incremental is this move to 3 nanometer so we're not surprised when it happens next year?

我很好奇的另一件事是這需要全新的測試人員嗎？或者可以升級部分已部署的基地？向 3 納米邁進到底有多少增量，所以明年發生時我們不會感到驚訝？

I'm not sure what you mean by the content growth. So just clarify that for a minute.

我不確定您所說的內容增長是什麼意思。所以請澄清一下。

Sure. So how does one quantify complexity, right, that if your average tester per unit of that smartphone is X when that SOC moves from 5 to 3, then how much extra tester revenue can you get from that for the same number of units?

當然。那麼，如何量化複雜性，對，如果當 SOC 從 5 變為 3 時，每部智能手機的平均測試人員為 X，那麼對於相同數量的單元，您可以從中獲得多少額外的測試人員收入？

Yes. So the -- first of all, that second part of your question, which was reuse of testers. Testers are absolutely reused node to node, generation to generation. And testers we put in 10 years ago are still being used for mobile device testing. So long, long product lives. They do need to be upgraded a bit now and then. That's part of the flow, but there's no obsolescence event coming in the short term around testers. That's not in our midterm plan and anything else and hasn't been in the past.

是的。所以——首先，你的問題的第二部分，即測試人員的重用。測試人員是絕對重用節點到節點，一代又一代。我們在 10 年前投入的測試儀仍在用於移動設備測試。很長很長的產品壽命。他們確實需要不時地升級一下。這是流程的一部分，但短期內不會出現圍繞測試人員的過時事件。這不在我們的中期計劃和其他任何事情中，過去也沒有。

So the node transitions typically enable transistor count bumps, and that's what drives incremental test capacity because you -- the same device requires more test time. And so I think you could expect something in the rough jump of 30%, 40% jump in transistor counts; drive, maybe a 20% jump in tester capacity. So you've got to do the math across the whole installed base of testers and everything else. So I haven't recently sat down and tried to pencil that out, so I can't sort of do it off the top of my head, but that's roughly the ratio is that what a node transition will give us is that big jump in transistor count.

因此，節點轉換通常會導致晶體管數量激增，這就是驅動增加測試容量的原因，因為您 - 同一個設備需要更多的測試時間。所以我認為你可以期待晶體管數量的粗略跳躍 30% 到 40%；驅動器，測試器容量可能會增加 20%。因此，您必須對整個已安裝的測試人員群和其他所有內容進行數學計算。所以我最近沒有坐下來試著把它畫出來，所以我不能在我的頭頂上做它，但大致的比例是節點轉換會給我們帶來的是巨大的跳躍晶體管數。

And then you can say, okay, just to take an example, if the installed base of testers is 100, and there's no unit growth, all there is a node transition of about a 30% to 40% complexity bump, you would need 20 more testers to cover that in that year. The model is much more complex than that, of course. You'd have to sort of do it over years and model it. But that's the tips of the waves on it.

然後你可以說，好吧，舉個例子，如果測試人員的安裝基數是 100，並且沒有單位增長，只有節點轉換大約 30% 到 40% 的複雜性凸起，你需要 20在那一年有更多的測試人員來覆蓋它。當然，該模型比這複雜得多。您必須經過多年的努力並對其進行建模。但那是海浪的提示。

And next, we have Krish Sankar of Cowen.

接下來，我們有 Cowen 的 Krish Sankar。

I have two of them. Mark, thanks for the color on the industry market sizes. Given that the incremental strength in SOC is coming from auto, and memory is kind of more rejiggered towards NAND versus DRAM, is it fair to still assume that your market share in SOC and memory is going to be about 40% this year? Or do you think SOC may be slightly higher, memory slightly lower? Then I have a follow-up.

我有兩個。馬克，感謝行業市場規模的顏色。鑑於 SOC 的增量實力來自汽車，而且內存更傾向於 NAND 而不是 DRAM，仍然假設您今年在 SOC 和內存中的市場份額將達到 40% 左右是否公平？或者你認為SOC可能會略高，內存略低？然後我有一個跟進。

Yes. I think for the year, memory is probably still around 40, plus or minus 1% or so, but around 40. I don't think it changes significantly with this flash shift.

是的。我認為今年的內存可能仍然在 40 左右，上下浮動 1% 左右，但在 40 左右。我認為它不會隨著這次快速轉變而發生顯著變化。

In the case of -- I wouldn't characterize it as much of a change. It's also probably slightly short of 40 for the year. And it will kind of depend on what happens in the supply chain issues as we get into Q4. I anticipate we'll be -- and we anticipate in our discussion here that we're going to be bottlenecked. The 30 -- $40-ish million were bottlenecked here in Q2 will likely grow as we get toward Q4. And if that, in fact, happens, then we'll probably be 38% to 39% share. If we can unconstrain that, we can ship more testers off, it could be in the 40% range.

在這種情況下——我不會將其描述為變化太大。今年也可能略低於40。這在某種程度上取決於我們進入第四季度時供應鏈問題會發生什麼。我預計我們會——並且我們在這裡的討論中預計我們會遇到瓶頸。隨著我們進入第四季度，在第二季度遇到瓶頸的 30 - 40 美元左右的百萬美元可能會增長。如果這真的發生了，那麼我們可能會佔據 38% 到 39% 的份額。如果我們可以取消限制，我們可以運送更多的測試人員，它可能在 40% 的範圍內。

Got it. Got it. And then you kind of spoke about the 3-nanometer from a large customer next year. Historically, there's been a little bit of a headwind to gross margin when they spend. I'm just kind of curious, should that be worse or similar to historical trends, if next year auto test flows and the tailwind you have this year from the Eagle test high-margin testers moderate as your large customer becomes a bigger portion in 2023?

知道了。知道了。然後你談到了明年一位大客戶的 3 納米。從歷史上看，當他們支出時，毛利率會受到一點阻力。我只是有點好奇，如果明年的汽車測試流動和你今年從 Eagle 測試高利潤測試人員那裡獲得的順風會隨著你的大客戶在 2023 年成為更大的一部分而緩和，那是否會更糟或與歷史趨勢相似?

Yes. It's Sanjay. So I think it's a good observation that the mobility, we'll call it the bubble. If we see that in 2023 on a margin percentage, it will have an impact. But I will say that we are having investments that continually work to both add supply assurance, but also -- and give us flexibility but also drives from a bill of materials. And we've been fighting the cost or the component inflation. But we plan to execute in our at our earnings model level of 59% to 60% would be our expectation.

是的。是桑傑。所以我認為這是一個很好的觀察流動性，我們稱之為泡沫。如果我們在 2023 年看到利潤率百分比，就會產生影響。但我要說的是，我們正在進行的投資不僅可以增加供應保證，還可以為我們提供靈活性，但也可以從材料清單中獲得動力。我們一直在與成本或組件通脹作鬥爭。但我們計劃在我們的盈利模型中執行 59% 至 60% 的水平，這將是我們的預期。

Up next, we have Toshiya Hari of Goldman Sachs.

接下來，我們有高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

I had two as well. Mark, you talked about the hyperscale opportunity in your prepared remarks. I think you noted that some of the customer activity seems to be accelerating and that you've been pleased with your run rate. I was hoping you could elaborate on that a little bit and to the extent possible, kind of speak to the timing of a potential inflection in that business. I realize that's sort of a medium- to long-term opportunity for you. But curious to hear any new developments there?

我也有兩個。馬克，你在準備好的評論中談到了超大規模的機會。我認為您注意到某些客戶活動似乎正在加速，並且您對自己的運行速度感到滿意。我希望你能詳細說明這一點，並儘可能地談談該業務潛在拐點的時機。我意識到這對你來說是一個中長期的機會。但是想知道那裡有什麼新的發展嗎？

Yes, that's -- it's tough to speculate because there's two classes of hyperscaler silicon development that are going on. There's a class of development around new consumer products. That one is incredibly difficult for us to forecast because it's unprecedented-type product introductions to see if the market will develop or will they even be introduced. So to me, those -- they're active, we're highly engaged, they're wildcards.

是的，那是 - 很難推測，因為有兩類超大規模芯片開發正在進行中。圍繞新的消費產品有一類發展。這對我們來說非常難以預測，因為這是前所未有的產品介紹，以了解市場是否會發展或是否會被引入。所以對我來說，那些 - 他們很活躍，我們高度參與，他們是通配符。

Then there's another class that I would say is more compute, cloud infrastructure. Chips going into the cloud for specialized. Could be AI applications going into the edge. Those are a little more, I would say, have precedented applications, and we have long-term sort of plans. And those, I expect are going to start ramping next year. I think some of these are going to ramp.

然後還有另一類我想說的是更多的計算，雲基礎設施。專用於雲端的芯片。可能是人工智能應用程序進入邊緣。我想說，這些還有一些先例，我們有長期的計劃。我預計這些將在明年開始增加。我認為其中一些將會增加。

Now how material will they be? I think we're still talking from a tester point of view, tens of millions versus hundreds of millions of dollars of incremental revenue. So we're still going to be early innings, but that gives you some sense.

現在它們會有多重要？我認為我們仍然從測試人員的角度討論，數千萬美元與數億美元的增量收入。因此，我們仍將處於早期階段，但這會給您一些意義。

Got it. That's helpful. And then as a quick follow-up, maybe one for Sanjay. You guys seem to be executing really well from a gross margin perspective despite everything that's going on. I think you beat the midpoint of your guidance in Q1 by more than 100 basis points. You're guiding to another higher than 60% quarter for Q2 despite everything that's going on. So I guess the question is, is this primarily a function of your largest customer being absent or at least being a small percentage of your revenue than typical in that driving a better mix? Or are there -- I know you guys are working on a bunch of things. Is there anything sustainable that could drive margins above your long-term model?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後作為快速跟進，也許是給桑傑的。儘管發生了一切，但從毛利率的角度來看，你們似乎執行得非常好。我認為你在第一季度的指導中點超過了 100 個基點。儘管一切都在發生，但您正在指導第二季度的另一個高於 60% 的季度。所以我想問題是，這主要是因為你最大的客戶缺席，還是至少佔你收入的一小部分，而不是推動更好的組合？或者在那裡——我知道你們正在做很多事情。有什麼可持續的東西可以使利潤率超過您的長期模型嗎？

Yes. So in Q1, it was really a function of product mix and really operational efficiencies and execution that drove us beyond what we guided in Q2 and beyond. Fundamentally, we were growing IA; LitePoint is growing, as examples. And in 2022, we see those businesses having higher than corporate average margins.

是的。因此，在第一季度，它實際上是產品組合以及真正的運營效率和執行力的一個功能，驅使我們超越了我們在第二季度及以後的指導。從根本上說，我們正在發展 IA；例如，LitePoint 正在增長。到 2022 年，我們看到這些企業的利潤率高於企業平均水平。

I do believe that as we continue to work -- we have plans and we're working towards margin plans that are accretive. But let me remind you that there's been significant inflation and component costs and labor are increasing. So we feel like we manage the business to a 59% to 60% gross margin over the midterm. We have internal plans that are challenging those to make them higher, but we're also realistic about some of the headwinds in play in the environment.

我確實相信，隨著我們繼續工作——我們有計劃，我們正在努力實現增值的利潤計劃。但讓我提醒您，通貨膨脹嚴重，組件成本和勞動力正在增加。所以我們覺得我們在中期將業務管理到 59% 到 60% 的毛利率。我們有內部計劃，正在挑戰那些讓它們更高的計劃，但我們也對環境中的一些不利因素持現實態度。

And we have Joe Moore of Morgan Stanley.

我們有摩根士丹利的喬摩爾。

In terms of the supply constraints that you have, can you kind of frame that competitively? I feel like last year, you had sort of a better supply situation than Advantest did? Is that still the case? And any ramifications for market share in the more transactional parts of the business?

就你所擁有的供應限製而言，你能有競爭力的框架嗎？我覺得去年，你們的供應情況比 Advantest 更好？還是這樣嗎？對業務中更多交易部分的市場份額有何影響？

Well, we're not inside Advantest to know a lot. But what we do know from the outside is their backlog's close to a year. Their customers are forced to order in advance around a year. And so yes, apparently, whatever is going on in terms of supply chain strategy, it's been slightly more favorable on our side.

好吧，我們在 Advantest 內部並不知道很多。但我們從外部知道的是他們的積壓接近一年。他們的客戶被迫提前一年左右訂購。所以是的，顯然，無論在供應鏈戰略方面發生什麼，對我們來說都稍微有利一些。

But we've worked this since 2019, 2018, sort of -- as a sort of a business continuity planning exercise around a whole series of things that could have gone wrong in the world, we never anticipated COVID but generally built up inventory resilience and backups that have fared well for us for 2 years.

但我們自 2019 年、2018 年以來一直在開展這項工作，有點像——作為一種圍繞世界上可能出現問題的一系列事情的業務連續性規劃練習，我們從未預料到 COVID，但總體上建立了庫存彈性和對我們來說已經運行了 2 年的備份。

So it kind of -- we've been hoping we would get through all of this without any significant bottlenecks. And we're seeing our first sort of headwind here in test at about a $40 million bottleneck in Q2. So 5% of our revenue roughly. We might have been able to increase revenue 5%.

所以它有點 - 我們一直希望我們能夠在沒有任何重大瓶頸的情況下完成所有這些。我們在第二季度看到了大約 4000 萬美元的瓶頸。所以大約占我們收入的 5%。我們可能已經能夠增加 5% 的收入。

And maybe that's going to be about the percentage through the year that we're going to be bottlenecked. We hope that we can keep it at that, keep lead times in sort of a 6-month range in test. And incrementally, get some of Advantest customers to consider us as a more responsive supplier. We'll see.

也許這將是全年我們將遇到瓶頸的百分比。我們希望我們可以保持這種狀態，在測試中將交貨時間保持在 6 個月的範圍內。逐漸地，讓一些 Advantest 客戶將我們視為響應速度更快的供應商。我們拭目以待。

And next, we have Sidney Ho of Deutsche Bank.

接下來是德意志銀行的 Sidney Ho。

Just one question for me. Related to your largest customer, are you still expecting them to be a 10% revenue this year? And given normally, you have some good visibility into them in about this time April, June -- April, May time frame. Is there much variability for the rest of this year?

對我來說只有一個問題。與您最大的客戶相關，您是否仍然期望他們今年能獲得 10% 的收入？通常情況下，您可以在大約 4 月、6 月 - 4 月、5 月的時間框架內對它們有一些很好的了解。今年剩餘時間有很大的變化嗎？

Yes. Sidney, it's Sanjay. Thanks for that question. So right now, our expectation is that we will not have that large customer be over 10%, consistent with what we thought in January.

是的。西德尼，是桑傑。謝謝你的問題。所以現在，我們的預期是我們的大客戶不會超過 10%，這與我們 1 月份的想法一致。

And I think on the, is there anything for the rest of the year? I think for 2Q and 3Q, no, it's pretty locked in. 4Q, frankly, is a wildcard because that in past years has been a surprise for us. It depends on sort of the ramp in 2022, the early silicon prove-outs and all kinds of factors and other products that might be launching. So fourth quarter is kind of still opaque to us. So I would say that if there's a potential for something in fourth quarter that we might not see yet, yes. But we'll be somewhat constrained there too, based on the earlier supply discussions.

我想，今年剩下的時間有什麼事情嗎？我認為對於 2Q 和 3Q，不，它已經被鎖定了。坦率地說，4Q 是一個通配符，因為在過去的幾年裡，這對我們來說是一個驚喜。這取決於 2022 年的增長、早期的矽驗證以及各種因素和其他可能推出的產品。所以第四季度對我們來說仍然是不透明的。所以我想說，如果第四季度有可能我們可能還看不到，是的。但根據早先的供應討論，我們也會在一定程度上受到限制。

And I see no further questions in the queue. I will turn the conference back over to Mr. Blanchard. Sir, you may continue.

我在隊列中看不到其他問題。我將把會議轉回給布蘭查德先生。先生，您可以繼續。

Well, for the first time in over 40 quarters, we're finished in early. Thanks, everybody, for joining us. Look forward to talking to you in the days and weeks ahead. Bye-bye.

好吧，這是 40 多個季度以來的第一次，我們提前完成了。謝謝大家加入我們。期待在未來幾天和幾週內與您交談。再見。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect, and have a pleasant day.

今天的電話會議到此結束。謝謝大家的參與。您現在可以斷開連接，度過愉快的一天。