泰瑞達 (TER) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Teradyne Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

大家好，歡迎來到泰瑞達第四季度和 2022 年全年收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，正在錄製此會議。

I would now like to turn the call over to Andy Blanchard, Vice President of Corporate Communications. Thank you. You may begin.

我現在想把電話轉給企業傳播副總裁 Andy Blanchard。謝謝你。你可以開始了。

Thank you, Daryl. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our discussion of Teradyne's most recent financial results. I'm joined this morning by our CEO, Mark Jagiela; President, Greg Smith; and our CFO, Sanjay Mehta.

謝謝你，達里爾。大家早上好，歡迎來到我們對泰瑞達最近財務業績的討論。今天早上，我們的首席執行官 Mark Jagiela 加入了我的行列；總裁格雷格·史密斯；以及我們的首席財務官 Sanjay Mehta。

Following our opening remarks, we'll provide details of our performance for 2022's fourth quarter and full year, along with our outlook for the first quarter of 2023.

在我們的開場白之後，我們將提供 2022 年第四季度和全年業績的詳細信息，以及我們對 2023 年第一季度的展望。

The press release containing our fourth quarter results was issued last evening. We're providing slides on the Investor page of the website that may be helpful to you in following the discussion. Replays of this call will be available via the same page after the call ends.

昨晚發布了包含我們第四季度業績的新聞稿。我們在網站的“投資者”頁面上提供幻燈片，可能對您了解討論有所幫助。此通話的重播將在通話結束後通過同一頁面提供。

The matters that we discuss today will include forward-looking statements that involve risk factors that could cause Teradyne's results to differ materially from management's current expectations. We encourage you to review the safe harbor language contained in the earnings release as well as our most recent SEC filings.

我們今天討論的事項將包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述涉及可能導致泰瑞達業績與管理層當前預期存在重大差異的風險因素。我們鼓勵您查看收益發布中包含的安全港語言以及我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件。

Additionally, those forward-looking statements are made as of today, and we take no obligation to update them as a result of events occurring after this call.

此外，這些前瞻性陳述是截至今天作出的，我們沒有義務因本次電話會議後發生的事件而更新它們。

During today's call, we'll make reference to non-GAAP financial measures. We've posted additional information concerning these non-GAAP financial measures, including reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial as it were available on the Investor page of our website.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將參考非 GAAP 財務指標。我們已經發布了有關這些非 GAAP 財務措施的更多信息，包括與我們網站投資者頁面上提供的最直接可比的 GAAP 財務的對賬。

Looking ahead between now and our next earnings call, Teradyne expects to participate in technology or industrial-focused investor conferences hosted by Citi, Susquehanna, Luke Capital and Morgan Stanley.

展望從現在到我們下一次財報電話會議，Teradyne 預計將參加由花旗、Susquehanna、Luke Capital 和摩根士丹利主辦的以技術或工業為重點的投資者會議。

Now let's get on with the rest of the agenda. First, Mark and Greg will comment on our recent results and the market conditions as we enter the new year. Sanjay will then offer more details on our quarterly results, along with our guidance for the first quarter. We'll then answer your questions, and this call is scheduled for 1 hour.

現在讓我們繼續議程的其餘部分。首先，馬克和格雷格將在我們進入新的一年時評論我們最近的業績和市場狀況。然後，Sanjay 將提供有關我們季度業績的更多詳細信息，以及我們對第一季度的指導。然後，我們將回答您的問題，此通話時間安排為 1 小時。

Mark?

標記？

Hello, everyone, and thanks for joining us this morning. I'm going to limit my remarks today as Greg will be taking full leadership of the company from next week. I'll leave the outlook to Greg, and Sanjay will provide the financial details, including our updated midterm earnings model.

大家好，感謝今天早上加入我們。由於格雷格將從下週開始全面領導公司，我今天將限制我的發言。我會將前景留給 Greg，Sanjay 將提供財務細節，包括我們更新的中期收益模型。

2022 was another good year for Teradyne with our second highest sales in history. Midyear, we saw a turn in our markets with the SOC test market softening after 6 years of growth and Industrial Automation growth slowing.

2022 年是 Teradyne 的又一個好年頭，銷售額創歷史第二高。年中，我們看到市場出現轉機，SOC 測試市場在經歷了 6 年的增長和工業自動化增長放緩後走軟。

At the company level, our financial results were slightly under the long-term trend line after operating well above trend in 2020 and 2021. This oscillation around the trend line is a familiar pattern that we expect to continue.

在公司層面，我們的財務業績在 2020 年和 2021 年遠高於趨勢線後略低於長期趨勢線。這種圍繞趨勢線的振盪是我們預計會繼續的熟悉模式。

We manage our business investments according to this trend line and tend not to chase these excursions up or down. Sanjay will note how these trend lines roll into our updated midterm earnings model.

我們根據這條趨勢線來管理我們的商業投資，而不傾向於追逐這些偏離。 Sanjay 將注意到這些趨勢線如何進入我們更新的中期收益模型。

Looking at a longer-term perspective, over the last 8 years, Teradyne's revenue has about doubled and EPS has grown about 4x. Growth of our core test markets is part of the story, as is expansion into new markets like Industrial Automation and System Level Test.

從更長期的角度來看，在過去 8 年中，泰瑞達的收入增長了約一倍，每股收益增長了約 4 倍。我們核心測試市場的增長是故事的一部分，向工業自動化和系統級測試等新市場的擴張也是如此。

This, combined with a rich cash flow and a balanced capital allocation plan, has been the recipe for shareholder returns. As you will hear, we see all of these drivers remaining in place for the years to come.

這與豐富的現金流和平衡的資本分配計劃相結合，一直是股東回報的秘訣。正如您將聽到的，我們看到所有這些驅動因素在未來幾年都將繼續存在。

Since this is my last earnings call, I would like to thank all of you who follow, invest and influence our journey at Teradyne. As Greg takes on the role, I'm confident we won't miss a beat, and he's been a key part of developing and implementing our strategy for many years.

由於這是我最後一次財報電話會議，我要感謝所有關注、投資和影響我們在 Teradyne 旅程的人。隨著格雷格接任這個角色，我相信我們不會錯過任何一個節拍，多年來他一直是我們制定和實施戰略的關鍵部分。

With that, I'll turn things over to Greg for his deeper perspective on our results and outlook. Greg?

有了這個，我會把事情交給格雷格，讓他對我們的結果和前景有更深刻的看法。格雷格？

Thanks, Mark, and good morning, everyone. Today, I will summarize the full year of 2022 and then comment on our early view of 2023. For the full year, we delivered sales of $3.155 billion and non-GAAP earnings of $4.25 per share.

謝謝，馬克，大家早上好。今天，我將總結 2022 年全年，然後評論我們對 2023 年的早期看法。全年，我們實現了 31.55 億美元的銷售額和 4.25 美元的非 GAAP 每股收益。

2022 was the second-highest revenue in company history but down 15% from 2021's record level due mainly to reduced demand in SOC test, specifically in mobility and compute. This offset was -- this was offset somewhat by strength in the automotive end market, including substantial demand for ADAS processor test.

2022 年是公司歷史上第二高的收入，但比 2021 年的創紀錄水平下降了 15%，這主要是由於 SOC 測試需求減少，特別是在移動性和計算方面。這種抵消是——這在一定程度上被汽車終端市場的實力所抵消，包括對 ADAS 處理器測試的大量需求。

Overall for 2022, we estimate the SOC test market was about $4.6 billion, down 6% from '21, and the memory market was down a similar amount for the year.

總體而言，我們估計 2022 年 SOC 測試市場約為 46 億美元，比 21 年下降 6%，內存市場全年下降了類似數量。

Industrial Automation grew about 7% in dollar terms. Foreign exchange was a major headwind in that business. Our growth was 15% in constant currency.

以美元計算，工業自動化增長了約 7%。外匯是該業務的主要阻力。按固定匯率計算，我們的增長率為 15%。

I'll divide my comments on market conditions into an early view of 2023, followed by our outlook for the midterm.

我將把我對市場狀況的評論分成 2023 年的早期觀點，然後是我們對中期的展望。

In July of last year, we noted the Semi Test equipment market was entering a downturn, with demand declining in end markets such as smartphones. This began to create chip supply/demand and inventory imbalances.

去年 7 月，我們注意到半導體測試設備市場正進入低迷期，智能手機等終端市場的需求下降。這開始造成芯片供需和庫存失衡。

We noted these types of corrections typically have a 4- to 6-quarter duration. Now we're a bit more than 2 quarters in, and as the downturn continues, our customers continue to rebalance their production and inventory with end market demand.

我們注意到這些類型的修正通常持續 4 到 6 個季度。現在我們已經過了兩個多季度，隨著經濟持續低迷，我們的客戶繼續根據終端市場需求重新平衡他們的生產和庫存。

Much of the imbalance is in test-intensive end markets like smartphones, compute and networking, where we see lower utilization.

大部分不平衡出現在智能手機、計算和網絡等測試密集型終端市場，我們看到這些市場的利用率較低。

At this point in time, with limited visibility into the second half, we estimate a market size for SOC tests to be 10% to 30% below 2022's $4.6 billion level. Major SOC producers are expected to start the transition to 3-nanometer later in 2023, and this could mitigate the headwinds a bit.

目前，由於下半年的可見度有限，我們估計 SOC 測試的市場規模將比 2022 年的 46 億美元水平低 10% 至 30%。預計主要 SOC 生產商將在 2023 年晚些時候開始向 3 納米過渡，這可能會稍微緩解不利因素。

Our historically largest end customer is expected to lead this transition, and revenue driven by this customer is expected to grow in 2023, moving from less than 10% of our revenue in 2022 to low double-digit percents of revenue for this year. Demand won't be finalized until Q2 and will be weighted towards the second half of the year.

我們歷史上最大的終端客戶預計將引領這一轉變，預計該客戶推動的收入將在 2023 年增長，從 2022 年占我們收入的不到 10% 增加到今年佔收入的低兩位數百分比。需求要到第二季度才能最終確定，並將在今年下半年加權。

In general, our models factor in 2 key demand drivers, unit volume and device complexity. We've read the same press reports that you have, that smartphone volumes are likely to be down in 2023.

一般來說，我們的模型考慮了 2 個關鍵的需求驅動因素，即單位體積和設備複雜性。我們已經閱讀了與您相同的新聞報導，即智能手機的銷量可能會在 2023 年下降。

The complexity growth associated with the 3-nanometer transition is likely to offset the test demand impact of the unit decrease, and the net effect is the increase in revenue that I've described.

與 3 納米過渡相關的複雜性增長可能會抵消單位減少對測試需求的影響，而淨效應就是我所描述的收入增加。

Our assumption that this transition is going to be gradual is likely to mute the peaks, but it will also fill in the troughs as the full portfolio migrates to 3-nanometer.

我們假設這種過渡將是漸進的，這可能會使峰值減弱，但隨著整個產品組合遷移到 3 納米，它也會填補低谷。

Overall, averaging across the entire life of a process node, like 5-nanometer or 3-nanometer, we expect that each new node will drive continued higher test investment in total than the prior node. On top of that, increased unit growth and the addition of new part types to the portfolio will drive further increases in test investment.

總的來說，平均一個工藝節點的整個生命週期，比如 5 納米或 3 納米，我們預計每個新節點將推動比前一個節點持續更高的總測試投資。最重要的是，單位增長的增加和產品組合中新零件類型的增加將推動測試投資的進一步增加。

In the memory test market, technology transitions continue to drive demand. Faster interface speeds in DRAM with DDR5 and in flash with UFS 4.0 cannot be tested on existing testers and are driving purchases of next-generation ATE.

在內存測試市場，技術轉型繼續推動需求。 DDR5 的 DRAM 和 UFS 4.0 的閃存中更快的接口速度無法在現有測試儀上進行測試，並且正在推動下一代 ATE 的購買。

Offsetting this technology-driven replacement demand is a difficult end market for our memory customers, which is likely to reduce capacity buying for this year. We are seeing some impact of that in the first quarter.

抵消這種技術驅動的更換需求是我們內存客戶的困難終端市場，這可能會減少今年的產能購買。我們在第一季度看到了一些影響。

On balance, we expect the memory test market size to be flat to slightly down from 2022. We expect Storage Test will be weak in 2023 due to excess capacity in the HDD end market. And Wireless Test demand will be soft on lower smartphone shipments and a demand lull in advance of the transition to WiFi 7 beginning in 2024.

總的來說，我們預計內存測試市場規模將持平至略低於 2022 年。我們預計由於 HDD 終端市場產能過剩，2023 年存儲測試將疲軟。由於智能手機出貨量下降以及 2024 年開始向 WiFi 7 過渡之前的需求停滯，無線測試需求將疲軟。

Shifting to Industrial Automation. As we expected, the macro outlook in industrial markets is cautious, with weak industrial PMIs. We expect this will be a growth headwind in the first half of the year.

轉向工業自動化。正如我們預期的那樣，工業市場宏觀前景謹慎，工業 PMI 數據疲軟。我們預計這將成為今年上半年的增長逆風。

Rolling up these headwinds and offsetting factors over the first half of the year, our current judgment for the total company has our second quarter about flat with Q1. However, in Industrial Automation for the full year, we have 3 notable factors that should help offset these headwinds later in the year.

綜合上半年的這些不利因素和抵消因素，我們目前對整個公司的判斷使我們的第二季度與第一季度基本持平。然而，在全年的工業自動化中，我們有 3 個值得注意的因素應該有助於在今年晚些時候抵消這些不利因素。

First, we do not expect the currency exchange impacts we experienced in 2022. Second, growth initiatives that began in 2022, including a channel transformation at UR, will gain traction.

首先，我們預計我們不會在 2022 年經歷貨幣兌換的影響。其次，2022 年開始的增長計劃，包括 UR 的渠道轉型，將獲得牽引力。

One component of the channel transformation is supplementing our traditional distributor channel with a focused OEM channel. That effort delivered 26% growth in 2022, and we expect this to continue in 2023 as our existing OEM partners continue to grow and we add additional OEMs and targeted verticals.

渠道轉型的一個組成部分是通過專注於 OEM 渠道來補充我們的傳統分銷商渠道。這一努力在 2022 年實現了 26% 的增長，我們預計隨著我們現有的 OEM 合作夥伴繼續增長以及我們增加更多的 OEM 和目標垂直行業，這種情況將在 2023 年繼續。

The third factor driving IA growth is expanding the served market through new products. Most notably, in 2023, shipments of the new long-reach, heavy-payload cobot at Universal Robots, the UR20, which will ramp in the second half of the year.

推動 IA 增長的第三個因素是通過新產品擴大服務市場。最值得注意的是，2023 年，Universal Robots 新型長距離、重載協作機器人 UR20 的出貨量將在下半年增加。

Barring a significant deterioration in the macro economy and reasonably stable currencies, we expect channel expansion, combined with new products, to drive greater than 20% growth for IA in 2023, weighted to the second half of the year.

除非宏觀經濟顯著惡化且貨幣相當穩定，否則我們預計渠道擴張和新產品將在 2023 年推動 IA 增長超過 20%，加權到下半年。

Now shifting to the midterm outlook. The short-term changes in customer buying patterns in semi cap equipment can be abrupt. We built our flexible operating model to accommodate those cycles.

現在轉向中期展望。半成品設備客戶購買模式的短期變化可能是突然的。我們建立了靈活的運營模式來適應這些週期。

Our midterm plans track the long-term historical trends and the future demand drivers in each of our businesses rather than the short-term cycles. In any given year, we will land above or below trend, but that trend line has provided a reliable baseline for planning.

我們的中期計劃跟踪我們每項業務的長期歷史趨勢和未來需求驅動因素，而不是短期週期。在任何一年，我們都會高於或低於趨勢線，但該趨勢線為規劃提供了可靠的基線。

Sanjay will be going through a quantitative view of our 2026 earnings model. To set up that discussion, I'd like to make a few qualitative comments to provide some context. Our 2026 earnings model shows significant revenue and EPS growth, and it's reasonable to ask why we assume midterm growth when the short-term environment is so weak.

Sanjay 將對我們的 2026 年盈利模型進行定量分析。為了展開討論，我想發表一些定性評論以提供一些背景信息。我們的 2026 年盈利模型顯示收入和每股收益顯著增長，有理由問為什麼我們在短期環境如此疲軟的情況下假設中期增長。

There are several factors that give us confidence in our midterm outlook. End markets, like AI and cloud computing, mobile processing and automotive, including ADAS and EV, are driving increased semiconductor content and increasing chip complexity.

有幾個因素讓我們對中期前景充滿信心。 AI 和雲計算、移動處理和汽車（包括 ADAS 和 EV）等終端市場正在推動半導體含量的增加和芯片複雜性的增加。

The deployment of advanced wireless standards will support ever higher data volumes and the pervasive deployment of edge AI. This end market demand will drive the timeline for new semi fab nodes and packaging technologies, like 3-nanometer, chiplets and gate all around.

先進無線標準的部署將支持更高的數據量和邊緣人工智能的普遍部署。這一終端市場需求將推動新的半晶圓廠節點和封裝技術的時間表，如 3 納米、小芯片和全門。

We have seen these technology transitions drive demand for test as the new nodes enable more complex chips and multichip packaging technologies like chiplets drive higher quality level requirements. Both of these factors drive longer test times and higher ATE TAMs.

我們已經看到這些技術轉型推動了對測試的需求，因為新節點支持更複雜的芯片，而小芯片等多芯片封裝技術推動了更高的質量水平要求。這兩個因素都會導致更長的測試時間和更高的 ATE TAM。

But the landscape is changing. These complex chips are increasingly developed by a new class of vertically integrated producers, or VIPs, including hyperscalers and automakers.

但情況正在發生變化。這些複雜芯片越來越多地由新型垂直整合生產商或 VIP 開發，包括超大規模生產商和汽車製造商。

We've had good design-in success to date with this emerging customer type, and these VIPs provide Teradyne with an opportunity to grow share in a space long dominated by legacy x86 architectures, where our share has historically been lower.

迄今為止，我們在這種新興客戶類型方面取得了良好的設計成功，這些 VIP 為 Teradyne 提供了在長期由傳統 x86 架構主導的空間中增加份額的機會，而我們的份額歷來較低。

These large, complex devices are used in uptime-critical applications and will require exceptionally low defect levels. To achieve this quality level, our customers will increasingly adopt an additional test step, system-level tests or SLT.

這些大型、複雜的設備用於對正常運行時間至關重要的應用程序，並且需要極低的缺陷水平。為達到這一質量水平，我們的客戶將越來越多地採用額外的測試步驟、系統級測試或 SLT。

We have a strong footprint in this growing market, and our design-in success with new customers is expected to be a growth driver over the midterm.

我們在這個不斷增長的市場中擁有強大的足跡，我們在新客戶中的成功設計有望成為中期的增長動力。

Over the midterm, we expect to see WiFi 7 ramp and the rapid expansion of UWB-enabled devices for both precision location tracking and security. These new standards obsolete existing test instrumentation, and this replacement cycle will be a growth engine over the midterm for both SOC test and Wireless Test.

在中期，我們預計會看到 WiFi 7 的普及以及支持 UWB 的設備在精確定位跟踪和安全方面的快速擴展。這些新標準淘汰了現有的測試儀器，這個更換週期將成為 SOC 測試和無線測試的中期增長引擎。

Turning to IA. Global labor shortages and converging regional wages will continue to be unrelenting demand drivers. Market penetration for collaborative robots, including AMRs, is under 5%, providing enormous opportunities for long-term growth.

轉向 IA。全球勞動力短缺和趨同的區域工資將繼續成為不懈的需求驅動力。包括 AMR 在內的協作機器人的市場滲透率不到 5%，為長期增長提供了巨大的機會。

The steady application of new technologies in our products will continue to expand our served market, and the transformation of our channel will enable us to serve a broader range of customers and drive revenue to the $1 billion level in 2026.

新技術在我們產品中的穩步應用將繼續擴大我們服務的市場，我們渠道的轉型將使我們能夠服務更廣泛的客戶，並在 2026 年推動收入達到 10 億美元的水平。

Summing it up. Over the midterm, our strong core test businesses will support share gain and trend line growth, while IA will grow to be about 20% of company sales and become a meaningful contributor to earnings.

總結一下。在中期，我們強大的核心測試業務將支持份額增長和趨勢線增長，而 IA 將增長到公司銷售額的 20% 左右，並成為收益的重要貢獻者。

In 2022, we have planted the seeds for future growth. We expanded our design-in footprint in the vertically integrated producer space and recognized substantial revenues from this emerging market.

2022年，我們播下了未來成長的種子。我們擴大了在垂直整合生產商領域的設計足跡，並從這個新興市場獲得了可觀的收入。

We expanded our customer base in SLT. We grew our IA sales in challenging business conditions and set the foundation for higher long-term growth at both Universal Robots and [Newark].

我們擴大了 SLT 的客戶群。我們在充滿挑戰的商業環境中實現了 IA 銷售額的增長，並為 Universal Robots 和 [Newark] 的長期增長奠定了基礎。

We're in a cyclical downturn in the semiconductor capital industry, and visibility in downturns is always a challenge. We expect sales and earnings to be below our midterm trend line in 2023.

我們正處於半導體資本行業的周期性低迷時期，低迷時期的可見性始終是一個挑戰。我們預計 2023 年的銷售額和收益將低於我們的中期趨勢線。

While we don't have line of sight to an inflection in demand, that's typical in these cycles. The market will recover, and we expect to return to historical growth rates driving strong earnings over our midterm planning horizon, as Sanjay will describe.

雖然我們看不到需求的拐點，但這在這些週期中很典型。市場將會復蘇，我們預計將恢復到歷史增長率，從而在我們的中期計劃範圍內推動強勁的收益，正如桑傑將描述的那樣。

Before turning it over to Sanjay, I would like to thank Mark for his more than 40 years of service to Teradyne and his 9 years as CEO. He has steered the company through an extraordinary period in the semiconductor industry and helped to assure our future growth through our investments in robotics.

在將其移交給 Sanjay 之前，我要感謝 Mark 為 Teradyne 服務 40 多年以及擔任 CEO 的 9 年。他帶領公司度過了半導體行業的一個非常時期，並通過我們對機器人技術的投資幫助確保了我們未來的增長。

More personally, it's been an honor to work for Mark during that period. His candor and insight has made me and all of us at Teradyne better. Although we're facing a cyclical downturn, we're facing it as a company with tremendous financial strength, a great team and a clear strategic vision, thanks to Mark.

就個人而言，在那段時間為馬克工作是一種榮幸。他的坦率和洞察力讓我和 Teradyne 的所有人都變得更好。儘管我們正面臨週期性低迷，但我們作為一家擁有巨大財務實力、優秀團隊和清晰戰略願景的公司來面對它，這要感謝馬克。

Now Sanjay?

現在桑傑？

Thank you, Greg. Good morning, everyone. Today, I'll cover the financial summary of Q4 and the full year 2022, provide our Q1 outlook and review our updated earnings model and capital allocation plans. Now to Q4.

謝謝你，格雷格。大家，早安。今天，我將介紹第四季度和 2022 年全年的財務摘要，提供我們的第一季度展望，並回顧我們更新的盈利模型和資本配置計劃。現在到第四季度。

Fourth quarter sales were $732 million, which was approximately $20 million above our mid guide with non-GAAP EPS of $0.92. Semi Test revenue of $481 million was strong in Automotive and Industrial and SOC.

第四季度銷售額為 7.32 億美元，比我們的中期指導高出約 2000 萬美元，非 GAAP 每股收益為 0.92 美元。汽車和工業以及 SOC 的半測試收入為 4.81 億美元，表現強勁。

System Test group had revenue of $100 million, down 22% year-over-year, driven by lower sales in Storage Tests serving a weaker HDD end market, slightly offset by higher defense and aerospace and Production Board Tests.

系統測試部門的收入為 1 億美元，同比下降 22%，這是由於服務於較弱的 HDD 終端市場的存儲測試銷售額下降，但被更高的國防和航空航天以及生產板測試略微抵消。

LitePoint revenue of $40 million was down 23% from a year ago due to lower cellular and WiFi demand. Industrial Automation revenue of $110 million was down 2% from fourth quarter of last year, but up 7% in constant currency.

由於蜂窩和 WiFi 需求下降，LitePoint 的收入為 4000 萬美元，比一年前下降了 23%。工業自動化收入為 1.1 億美元，比去年第四季度下降 2%，但按固定匯率計算增長 7%。

Non-GAAP gross margins were 57.4%, above our guidance, due to favorable product mix and some resiliency costs deferred until the first half of '23. Non-GAAP operating expenses were $252 million, about flat with third quarter OpEx. Non-GAAP operating profit rate was 23%.

非 GAAP 毛利率為 57.4%，高於我們的指導，這是由於有利的產品組合和一些彈性成本推遲到 23 年上半年。非 GAAP 運營支出為 2.52 億美元，與第三季度運營支出持平。非美國通用會計準則營業利潤率為 23%。

We had one customer -- we had one 10% customer in the quarter. The tax rate, excluding discrete items for the quarter, was 12.3% on a non-GAAP basis and lower than planned because of geographic mix. We repurchased $2 million of shares in the quarter.

我們有一個客戶——本季度我們有一個 10% 的客戶。不包括本季度離散項目的稅率在非 GAAP 基礎上為 12.3%，由於地域組合的原因低於計劃。我們在本季度回購了 200 萬美元的股票。

Turning to the full-year results. We had revenue of approximately $3.2 billion. QUALCOMM was our one 10% customer for the full year. Gross margin for the year was 59.2%, OpEx was $1 billion, and operating profit was 27.5%. Non-GAAP EPS was $4.25. We generated $415 million in free cash flow in 2022.

轉向全年業績。我們的收入約為 32 億美元。 QUALCOMM 是我們全年 10% 的客戶。全年毛利率為 59.2%，運營支出為 10 億美元，營業利潤率為 27.5%。非 GAAP 每股收益為 4.25 美元。我們在 2022 年產生了 4.15 億美元的自由現金流。

We returned $822 million to our shareholders through share repurchases and dividends and ended the year with $1 billion of cash and marketable securities. Our tax rate for the full year, excluding discrete items, was 16.3% on a GAAP and non-GAAP basis.

我們通過股票回購和派息向股東返還了 8.22 億美元，並在年底以 10 億美元的現金和有價證券結束了這一年。根據 GAAP 和非 GAAP，我們全年的稅率（不包括離散項目）為 16.3%。

Semi Test revenue for the year was $2.1 billion, with SOC revenue contributing $1.7 billion and memory $373 million. Our SOC sales contracted in 2022. But I'll note a bright spot for us in Automotive, where year-on-year shipments increased over 60%. In memory, our sales declined about 6% and were roughly evenly split between flash and DRAM.

Semi Test 全年收入為 21 億美元，其中 SOC 收入貢獻 17 億美元，存儲器貢獻 3.73 億美元。我們的 SOC 銷售額在 2022 年收縮。但我會注意到我們在汽車領域的一個亮點，出貨量同比增長超過 60%。在內存方面，我們的銷售額下降了約 6%，並且在閃存和 DRAM 之間大致平分。

System Test group had revenue of $469 million, which was flat to 2021. Strength in defense and aerospace and Production Board Test was offset by a decline in our storage business.

系統測試集團的收入為 4.69 億美元，與 2021 年持平。國防和航空航天以及生產板測試的實力被我們存儲業務的下滑所抵消。

In Wireless Test, revenue of $202 million in 2022 was lower year-on-year, with declines in cellular and connectivity partially offset by strength in UWB.

在無線測試中，2022 年的收入為 2.02 億美元，同比下降，蜂窩和連接的下降部分被 UWB 的實力所抵消。

Now to Industrial Automation. IA revenue was $404 million, with UR contributing $326 million and MiR $77 million, which includes . Notably, MiR grew 26% for the year in constant currency, 19% in dollars.

現在到工業自動化。 IA 收入為 4.04 億美元，其中 UR 貢獻了 3.26 億美元，MiR 貢獻了 7700 萬美元，其中包括 .值得注意的是，MiR 按固定匯率計算全年增長 26%，按美元計算增長 19%。

Large portion of IA sales are outside the U.S. and sold in local currencies. For the full year, 40% of the IA sales were in Europe, 35% in the U.S., 11% in China and the remainder in the rest of the world.

大部分 IA 銷售額在美國境外並以當地貨幣出售。全年，40% 的 IA 銷售額在歐洲，35% 在美國，11% 在中國，其餘在世界其他地區。

From a profitability perspective in IA, the group was slightly above breakeven on a non-GAAP operating basis for the full year.

從 IA 的盈利能力角度來看，該集團全年在非 GAAP 運營基礎上略高於收支平衡。

Now to our outlook for Q1. In October, we expected Q1 revenue of approximately $640 million which was projected to be down 10% from our Q4 midpoint.

現在我們對第一季度的展望。 10 月份，我們預計第一季度收入約為 6.4 億美元，預計比第四季度中點下降 10%。

Since then, 3 declines have occurred: First, approximately $20 million of revenue was pulled in from Q1. Second, we expect approximately $20 million of supply constraints in Q1, which has not been included in our guidance range.

從那以後，出現了 3 次下降：首先，第一季度收入減少了約 2000 萬美元。其次，我們預計第一季度約有 2000 萬美元的供應限制，這未包括在我們的指導範圍內。

Third, approximately $20 million of memory related to capacity additions has shifted to later in the year, including other offsetting factors.

第三，與容量增加相關的大約 2000 萬美元內存已轉移到今年晚些時候，包括其他抵消因素。

Q1 sales are expected to be between $550 million and $630 million, with non-GAAP EPS in a range of $0.28 to $0.52 on 165 million diluted shares. First quarter guidance excludes the amortization of acquired intangibles.

第一季度銷售額預計在 5.5 億美元至 6.3 億美元之間，非 GAAP 每股收益在 0.28 美元至 0.52 美元之間，稀釋後的 1.65 億股。第一季度指引不包括已收購無形資產的攤銷。

First quarter gross margins are estimated at 55% to 56%, down from Q4 due to lower volume and higher spending on accelerating our manufacturing and service resiliency. OpEx is expected to run at 39% to 44% of first quarter sales. The non-GAAP operating profit rate at the midpoint of our first quarter guidance is 14%.

第一季度的毛利率預計為 55% 至 56%，低於第四季度，原因是銷量下降以及加速我們的製造和服務彈性的支出增加。運營支出預計將佔第一季度銷售額的 39% 至 44%。我們第一季度指引中點的非美國通用會計準則營業利潤率為 14%。

A few points to assist you in the modeling in 2023. First, the gross margin profile. In 2023, we expect gross margins will be below our model in the first half, driven by lower volume and additional spending on accelerating our manufacturing and service resiliency. We expect second half gross margins to return to our 59% to 60% model range.

2023年輔助大家建模的幾點。第一，毛利率概況。到 2023 年，我們預計上半年的毛利率將低於我們的模型，這是由於銷量下降和加速我們的製造和服務彈性的額外支出。我們預計下半年毛利率將回到我們 59% 至 60% 的模型範圍。

Regarding OpEx for the full year. We expect full year 2023 OpEx to be roughly flat, compared with 2022. IA profitability is planned to be in the range of 5% to 15% profit level on higher volume. Our GAAP and non-GAAP tax rate is forecasted to be 16.75% in 2023.

關於全年的運營支出。與 2022 年相比，我們預計 2023 年全年的運營支出將大致持平。IA 的盈利能力計劃在 5% 至 15% 的利潤水平範圍內，產量更高。我們的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 稅率預計在 2023 年為 16.75%。

Turning to capital allocation. Our strategy remains consistent as we take a balanced approach and prioritize free cash flow to maintain a minimum cash level to run the business and to have reserves set aside in the event of a significant downturn.

轉向資本配置。我們的戰略保持一致，因為我們採取平衡的方法並優先考慮自由現金流，以維持最低現金水平來經營業務，並在出現嚴重衰退時預留儲備金。

Excess free cash flow will be prioritized for M&A, share buybacks and dividends. Prior share buyback authorization was replaced with a new $2 billion authorization. We expect up to $500 million of repurchases in 2023.

多餘的自由現金流將優先用於併購、股票回購和派息。之前的股票回購授權被新的 20 億美元授權所取代。我們預計 2023 年將進行高達 5 億美元的回購。

Moving to our earnings model. We expect test and IA growth will drive 2026 company revenue to approximately $5 billion and non-GAAP EPS to $8.75 at the midpoint of the updated model. Gross margin is estimated at 59% to 60%. OpEx as a percent of sales will decline to 26% to 28%, yielding a non-GAAP operating margin of 31% to 34%.

轉向我們的盈利模式。我們預計，在更新模型的中點，測試和 IA 增長將推動 2026 年公司收入達到約 50 億美元，非 GAAP 每股收益達到 8.75 美元。毛利率估計為 59% 至 60%。運營支出佔銷售額的百分比將下降至 26% 至 28%，非 GAAP 營業利潤率為 31% 至 34%。

Some context on the model. Over the last 6 years, Teradyne has grown revenue at a compounded 10% rate and our non-GAAP EPS at a 19% rate. Our model midpoint, we -- at our model midpoint, we expect the 2016 to 2026 extended trend line for revenue and non-GAAP EPS CAGRs will be -- to be 11% and 19%, respectively, roughly in line with the historical rate and reflecting an increasing contribution of revenue from Industrial Automation. We have included a backup slide in the deck that illustrates these trends.

模型的一些上下文。在過去的 6 年裡，泰瑞達的收入以 10% 的複合增長率增長，我們的非 GAAP 每股收益以 19% 的速度增長。我們的模型中點，我們 - 在我們的模型中點，我們預計 2016 年至 2026 年收入和非 GAAP EPS CAGR 的擴展趨勢線將分別為 11% 和 19%，與歷史增長率大致一致並反映了工業自動化收入貢獻的增加。我們在幻燈片中加入了一張備用幻燈片來說明這些趨勢。

In prior calls and Greg's comments today, we have outlined the key drivers for the test portfolio, including device technology trends, complexity and unit growth, which we anticipate will drive ATE growth over the 4-year horizon. Our test revenues are expected to grow at a CAGR of 8% to 13% from 2022 to 2026.

在之前的電話會議和 Greg 今天的評論中，我們概述了測試產品組合的主要驅動因素，包括設備技術趨勢、複雜性和單位增長，我們預計這將在 4 年內推動 ATE 增長。從 2022 年到 2026 年，我們的測試收入預計將以 8% 到 13% 的複合年增長率增長。

For IA, we believe this market is still sub-5% penetrated. Greg has outlined the drivers over the midterm for this market, including labor shortages, new products and applications and channel transformation. Our IA revenues are expected to grow 20% to 30% from 2022 to 2026.

對於 IA，我們認為該市場的滲透率仍低於 5%。 Greg 概述了該市場的中期驅動因素，包括勞動力短缺、新產品和應用以及渠道轉型。從 2022 年到 2026 年，我們的 IA 收入預計將增長 20% 到 30%。

Summing up. After 6 years of growth, the SOC test market slowed in the second half of 2022, and our financial model flexed down as designed.

加起來。經過 6 年的增長，SOC 測試市場在 2022 年下半年放緩，我們的財務模型按設計縮減。

Despite the smaller test market, we delivered 27.5% non-GAAP operating profit, generated over $400 million in free cash flow, returned over $800 million to shareholders, reduced our share count by 4% and ended the year with $1 billion in cash.

儘管測試市場規模較小，但我們實現了 27.5% 的非 GAAP 營業利潤，產生了超過 4 億美元的自由現金流，向股東返還了超過 8 億美元，將我們的股份數量減少了 4%，並在年底以 10 億美元現金結束。

Going forward, our updated model builds on proven foundation of historical growth in test and IA and includes new drivers of future growth. While there is uncertainty in the short run, we are confident of the growth opportunities in the markets we serve and our team executing our strategy to capture that growth.

展望未來，我們更新的模型建立在測試和 IA 歷史增長的可靠基礎之上，並包括未來增長的新驅動力。雖然短期內存在不確定性，但我們對我們所服務市場的增長機會以及我們的團隊執行我們的戰略以抓住這種增長充滿信心。

With that, I'll turn the call back over to Andy. Andy?

有了這個，我會把電話轉回給安迪。安迪？

Thanks, Sanjay. Daryl, we would now like to take some questions. (Operator Instructions).

謝謝，桑傑。達里爾，我們現在想回答一些問題。 （操作員說明）。

(Operator Instructions) Our first questions come from the line of Mehdi Hosseini with SIG.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

The first one has to do with the Semi Test cycle. You did mention in your prepared remarks that perhaps we are in the second quarter of a typical downturn that would last 4 to 6 quarters. But wouldn't that be fair to say that the situation with Teradyne Semi Test is different?

第一個與半測試週期有關。您在準備好的發言中確實提到，也許我們正處於持續 4 到 6 個季度的典型低迷的第二季度。但是，如果說 Teradyne Semi Test 的情況有所不同，這難道不公平嗎？

If I just look at your guide for Q1, it would suggest that Semi Test is already down by more than 50% since the peak some time in early '21, and perhaps Teradyne is well into the semi cycle correction. I would appreciate if you could help me reconcile, and then I have a follow-up.

如果我只看你的 Q1 指南，這表明 Semi Test 已經比 21 年初的某個時間的峰值下降了 50% 以上，也許 Teradyne 已經進入半週期修正。如果您能幫助我和解，我將不勝感激，然後我會進行跟進。

Thanks for the question, Mehdi. Our thought in terms of the Semi Test cycle is that we really don't have great visibility. Where -- we believe we are about 2 quarters in. And one thing to remember is that the peak that you're talking about was well above our trend line.

謝謝你的問題，邁赫迪。我們對半測試週期的想法是，我們確實沒有很好的知名度。在哪裡 - 我們相信我們大約有兩個季度。要記住的一件事是你所說的峰值遠高於我們的趨勢線。

So there was a fair amount of contraction to happen before we got into a region, where we would have considered it to be sort of a true downturn. So we're really measuring from that sort of July of '22 time frame. And we think we are just about 2 quarters into it.

因此，在我們進入一個我們認為是真正的衰退的區域之前，會發生相當多的收縮。因此，我們實際上是在 22 年 7 月的那種時間框架內進行衡量。我們認為我們只進行了大約 2 個季度。

In terms of when it will inflect back up, we really don't have good visibility. There are a number of factors that make us feel a little bit better about the second half of the year than the first. But we don't see the kinds of leading indicators that the demand is returning. So I don't think we can give you a lot more color than that.

就何時會反彈而言，我們真的沒有很好的能見度。有很多因素讓我們對今年下半年的感覺比上半年好一些。但我們沒有看到需求正在恢復的領先指標。所以我不認為我們能給你更多的顏色。

Got it. As my second as a follow-up and as a follow-up to your comment, would it be fair to say that you have pushed out your targeted model by 2 years because you just -- we don't know the rate of recovery into '24, and yet you have a new target 2026.

知道了。作為我的第二個跟進和對你的評論的跟進，可以公平地說你已經將你的目標模型推遲了 2 年，因為你只是 - 我們不知道恢復到'24，但你有一個新的目標 2026。

We may go through another downturn before we get to that target. But the main valuable here is the rate of recovery into '24, and we just don't know.

在達到該目標之前，我們可能會經歷另一次低迷。但這裡主要有價值的是恢復到 24 年的速度，我們只是不知道。

And I also want to thank Mark for all the calls that he has hosted and wish him the best of luck in his next endeavor.

我還要感謝馬克主持的所有電話會議，並祝他在接下來的工作中好運。

Yes. Mehdi, it's Sanjay. Yes, I think it's a reasonable comment to say that the model has shifted to the right, really tied to the economic downturn. Really, as Greg mentioned, the inventory in the channel tied to the demand in the end markets coming down and the supply in the market.

是的。邁赫迪，我是桑傑。是的，我認為說模型向右移動是一個合理的評論，這確實與經濟衰退有關。真的，正如格雷格提到的那樣，渠道中的庫存與終端市場的需求下降和市場供應有關。

And maybe, Mehdi, thank you for those kind comments. I'll just make one quick comment on your first point, which is every downturn cycle, as we try to measure, it's different.

也許，Mehdi，謝謝你的評論。我只想對你的第一點做一個快速評論，這是每個低迷週期，正如我們試圖衡量的那樣，它是不同的。

But if you classify it around when does the imbalance between semiconductor supply and demand start to inflect and cause an industry-wide downturn, from that point of view, we see it as something that started last summer. So that's how -- why we mark it back to that date.

但是，如果圍繞半導體供需之間的失衡何時開始出現變化並導致整個行業的低迷進行分類，從這個角度來看，我們認為它是去年夏天開始的。這就是為什麼我們將其標記回那個日期。

Our next questions come from the line of Timothy Arcuri with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的蒂莫西·阿庫裡 (Timothy Arcuri)。

So the SOC TAM in 2022, it came in at the high end of what your range was. So what segment drove that in 2022?

因此，2022 年的 SOC TAM 處於您範圍的高端。那麼在 2022 年是哪個細分市場推動了這一點？

And then, can you also segment for us, in 2023, how you see the mix? I mean, I think this year, you'd been -- you sort of gave us some numbers for each of the markets. Can you sort of tell us -- if you just take the midpoint of that down 20%, can you tell us sort of what the mix will be, and how the different markets will change?

然後，您能否也為我們細分，在 2023 年，您如何看待這種組合？我的意思是，我認為今年，你已經 - 你給了我們每個市場的一些數字。你能不能告訴我們——如果你把中間值降低 20%，你能告訴我們組合會是什麼樣子，不同的市場將如何變化嗎？

Yes. It's Sanjay. Yes, 2022, the SOC market, we estimate about $4.6 billion and continued strength in compute, a little bit down in '22 from '21 in mobility, and then strength in auto that we referenced in prior calls, and industrial continued along with service.

是的。是桑傑。是的，到 2022 年，SOC 市場，我們估計約為 46 億美元，計算領域持續走強，22 年的移動性比 21 年略有下降，然後是我們在之前的電話會議中提到的汽車領域的實力，工業和服務繼續.

And in '23, really across the board in SOC, we see a decline with the exception of service across the board. And most notably, of course, in compute and mobility, as those markets we've talked about, we see a supply and demand imbalance, as well as Automotive and Industrial. So really, it's across the board from a decline perspective, is our view.

而在 23 年，真正全面的 SOC，除了全面的服務外，我們看到了下降。當然，最值得注意的是，在計算和移動性方面，正如我們談到的那些市場，我們看到供需不平衡，以及汽車和工業。因此，我們認為，從下降的角度來看，它確實是全面的。

Okay. Okay. Got it. And then I guess, Greg, since you're taking over for the company, I know you've been running IA. And I guess the indictment I would have over the past 5 -- well, really more like 7 years in IA, the growth expectations sort of have consistently been downticking since 2017 or 2018. And I get there's been a ton of macro headwinds.

好的。好的。知道了。然後我想，格雷格，既然你接管了公司，我知道你一直在運行 IA。我想我會在過去 5 年裡受到起訴——好吧，實際上更像是在 IA 的 7 年裡，增長預期自 2017 年或 2018 年以來一直在下降。我知道有很多宏觀逆風。

But can you just sort of take a step back and sort of assess maybe the competitive element in the market? Do you think some of it is competition? I know you'd like to maybe do some M&A, it sounds like in IA.

但是你能不能退後一步，評估一下市場中的競爭因素？你認為其中有一部分是競爭嗎？我知道你可能想進行一些併購，這聽起來像是在 IA 中。

So I think some -- I mean I just get a lot of questions from folks that just question whether there really is as much growth in IA as you think there is because the model does keep on pushing out.

所以我認為一些 - 我的意思是我只是從人們那裡得到很多問題，這些問題只是質疑 IA 是否真的像你認為的那樣增長，因為該模型確實不斷推出。

Yes. So it's a really good question. The thing that I would note is the growth of the collaborative robotics, including AMRs, has been slower than we or other players in the market or analysts have predicted. So essentially, the TAM has grown at a slower rate than we were originally envisioning.

是的。所以這是一個非常好的問題。我要指出的是，包括 AMR 在內的協作機器人的增長速度低於我們或市場上的其他參與者或分析師的預測。因此，從本質上講，TAM 的增長速度比我們最初設想的要慢。

So there are other competitive entries in the field, but in general, what we're seeing is that they're sort of raising the profile of the market and potentially helping to accelerate how fast we increase market penetration overall.

因此，該領域還有其他競爭性進入者，但總的來說，我們看到的是它們在某種程度上提高了市場知名度，並可能有助於加快我們提高整體市場滲透率的速度。

So especially in cobots, where we have a really strong share position, we think that market entrants are both sort of a blessing and a curse, that they are certainly giving customers options to compare.

因此，尤其是在協作機器人方面，我們擁有非常強大的市場份額，我們認為市場進入者既是福也是禍，他們肯定會給客戶提供比較的選擇。

We think we've got a good product, and we believe that we're going to be able to hold our share despite those entrants. And that's going to sort of increase market awareness and help to accelerate the growth of the whole market.

我們認為我們有一個好的產品，我們相信儘管有這些進入者，我們仍能保持我們的份額。這將在某種程度上提高市場意識，並有助於加速整個市場的增長。

In AMRs, it's much more of a toss-up, that we are one of the leaders in that market, but their -- the share is spread quite wide. And the market is still forming and people are still figuring out how to really make money in that space. We think we have a winning strategy over the midterm for that, but we have less certainty of the market growth in AMRs.

在 AMR 中，這更像是一種折騰，我們是該市場的領導者之一，但他們的份額分佈相當廣泛。市場仍在形成，人們仍在想辦法在那個領域真正賺錢。我們認為我們在中期有一個成功的戰略，但我們對 AMR 的市場增長不太確定。

So our plan is to take both of those things into account. But to sort of sum up, the growth has been slower in TAM. We don't think that it's a sign of loss of share due to competition.

所以我們的計劃是將這兩件事都考慮在內。但總而言之，TAM 的增長速度較慢。我們不認為這是由於競爭導致份額流失的跡象。

Our next question has come from the line of C.J. Muse with Evercore.

我們的下一個問題來自 C.J. Muse with Evercore。

First off, Mark, congrats. And we'll miss seeing you on Valentine's Day, but I'm sure you'll find better dates from here.

首先，馬克，恭喜。我們會想念在情人節那天見到你的，但我相信你會在這裡找到更好的約會對象。

But first question, for SOC test market share in '23, I guess I would love to hear your thoughts on the moving parts. It looks like roughly 37% share in '22, which was a very off year for your Cupertino account.

但第一個問題，對於 23 年的 SOC 測試市場份額，我想我很想听聽您對活動部件的看法。看起來 22 年的份額大約為 37%，這對您的 Cupertino 帳戶來說是非常低的一年。

What kind of recovery are you assuming there? And I guess, what kind of offset on the negative side should we be thinking around Eagle from the slowdown in Auto, Industrial? Would love to hear your thoughts there.

你假設那裡有什麼樣的恢復？而且我想，我們應該考慮從汽車、工業的放緩中圍繞 Eagle 進行什麼樣的負面抵消？很想听聽你的想法。

Sure. No, it's a good question. We're very cautious about making predictions about 2023. We have a reasonable line of sight, but a lot of uncertainty around even just the first half. In the second half, there are some things that could break our way and could drive both the market larger and our share higher.

當然。不，這是個好問題。我們對 2023 年的預測非常謹慎。我們有一個合理的視線，但即使只是上半年也有很多不確定性。在下半年，有些事情可能會打破我們的道路，並可能推動市場擴大和我們的份額增加。

And there has also been -- in 2022, there's been quite strong buying in compute with traditional customers that has tended to push our share down. So I can't really give you sort of a target number for share in 2023, but we believe that we're going to see some share recovery.

而且還有——在 2022 年，傳統客戶在計算方面的購買力相當強勁，這往往會壓低我們的份額。所以我真的不能給你一個 2023 年份額的目標數字，但我們相信我們會看到一些份額回升。

Very helpful. And then maybe more importantly, as you think about the underlying growth trends for SOC test, can you speak to 2024? And if you kind of had to rank-order the positive drivers for your business, whether it's 3-nanometer, a recovery in auto, hyperscalers starting to really expand, could you kind of walk through the 3 most important drivers that we should be thinking about into 2024?

非常有幫助。然後也許更重要的是，當你考慮 SOC 測試的潛在增長趨勢時，你能談談 2024 年嗎？如果你不得不對你的業務的積極驅動因素進行排序，無論是 3 納米、汽車的複蘇，還是超大規模開始真正擴張，你能否介紹一下我們應該考慮的 3 個最重要的驅動因素大約到 2024 年？

Yes. So I think you hit many of them. So I think that we are more bullish about 2024 than we are about 2023, certainly. There's -- it's a cloudy crystal ball to try and figure out what's going on.

是的。所以我認為你打了很多。所以我認為我們對 2024 年的看法肯定比對 2023 年的看法更為樂觀。有 - 這是一個混濁的水晶球，試圖弄清楚發生了什麼。

But the positive drivers, I think you hit an important one, that 3-nanometer is going to have much broader adoption across the industry, and 3-nanometer enables a significant increase in device complexity. That's always been a really good driver for ATE TAM.

但積極的驅動因素，我認為你擊中了一個重要的驅動因素，即 3 納米將在整個行業中得到更廣泛的採用，而 3 納米可以顯著增加設備的複雜性。這一直是 ATE TAM 的一個非常好的驅動程序。

The hyperscalers and automakers, we think that, that is going to be a -- we tend to think of it more as a share gain opportunity than a real TAM driver.

我們認為，超大規模和汽車製造商將成為——我們傾向於將其更多地視為獲得份額的機會，而不是真正的 TAM 驅動程序。

So if you think about -- the end market has a demand for a certain number of semiconductors, those semiconductors are going to come from traditional suppliers or these vertically integrated producers. We think that we have an opportunity to do well with that class of customers and potentially shift some share.

因此，如果您考慮 - 終端市場對一定數量的半導體有需求，這些半導體將來自傳統供應商或這些垂直整合的生產商。我們認為我們有機會與這類客戶打交道，並有可能轉移一些份額。

Overall, I think I hit kind of the high points around AI, cloud computing, a recovery in mobile and especially increasing semiconductor content in automotive.

總的來說，我認為我在人工智能、雲計算、移動領域的複蘇，尤其是汽車中半導體含量的增加方面達到了某種高點。

The one thing that could happen in 2024 is we're seeing unit declines in smartphones in 2023. And typically, if people take time off, if they slow down their refresh cycle for their phones, the following year tends to have a little bit more positive [task] to it. So that may also help with the rebound.

2024 年可能發生的一件事是，我們將看到 2023 年智能手機的出貨量下降。通常情況下，如果人們休假，如果他們放慢手機的更新周期，那麼接下來的一年往往會多一點積極[任務]。因此，這也可能有助於反彈。

Our next questions come from the line of Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Samik Chatterjee。

I guess for the first one, I know you're sort of seeing the test market, particularly on the SOC side, being down, particularly in the first half. But -- I mean, you called this sort of the early part of a down cycle as well.

我想對於第一個，我知道你有點看到測試市場，特別是在 SOC 方面，正在下降，尤其是在上半年。但是——我的意思是，你也將這種情況稱為下行週期的早期階段。

But when you sort of rely on your experience going through prior down cycles, how would you sort of think about the recovery path between the different pieces here?

但是當你有點依賴你經歷過之前的下降週期的經驗時，你會如何考慮這裡不同部分之間的恢復路徑？

Like should we expect memory test to sort of rebound sooner? Or are there certain pieces of SOC that you would expect to sort of rebound a bit faster than the others? How should we think about sort of the recovery path? And then I have a follow-up.

就像我們是否應該期望記憶測試能夠更快地反彈？還是您希望某些 SOC 的反彈速度比其他 SOC 快一點？我們應該如何考慮恢復路徑？然後我有一個後續行動。

That's interesting subtlety. So I think your question is really, how should we expect the shape of the recovery? Do we expect it to come first in SOC, first in memory?

這是有趣的微妙之處。所以我認為你的問題真的是，我們應該如何預期復甦的形狀？我們是否期望它首先出現在 SOC 中，首先出現在內存中？

The first thing that I'll say is that, right now, it appears that the SOC market is impacted more than the memory market in terms of 2023 TAM. And that's mainly because of these technology transitions in memory that are driving tester purchases, even though there isn't a need for more capacity.

我要說的第一件事是，就 2023 TAM 而言，目前看來 SOC 市場受到的影響大於內存市場。這主要是因為內存中的這些技術轉變正在推動測試儀的購買，即使不需要更多的容量。

What that says to me is that, when there is a recovery, it's probably more likely to be SOC-led than memory-led because there's sort of a capacity overage in memory that is going to need to be absorbed as the end market for memory recovers.

這對我來說是，當出現復甦時，它可能更可能是由 SOC 主導的，而不是內存主導的，因為內存中存在某種容量過剩，需要作為內存的終端市場來吸收恢復。

So that's just my opinion. I think it's pretty murky. So it could turn out a different way. But I think SOC is likely to snap back a little faster and harder than memory would.

所以這只是我的意見。我認為這很模糊。所以它可能會變成另一種方式。但我認為 SOC 可能會比內存恢復得更快、更難。

Okay. And for a follow-up, and I apologize if you've discussed this already on the call, I jumped a bit late. But in terms of sort of your expectations for what sounds like a bit better sort of second half versus first half, I mean, is -- how much of that is driven by sort of one of the primary customers moving to 3-nanometer?

好的。對於後續行動，如果您已經在電話中討論過這個問題，我深表歉意，我跳得有點晚了。但就您對下半年與上半年相比聽起來更好的期望而言，我的意思是，其中有多少是由轉向 3 納米的主要客戶之一推動的？

And have you -- are you able to provide a split of how you're thinking about sort of first half versus second half in terms of revenue?

你有沒有 - 你能否提供你對上半年和下半年收入的看法？

All right. It's Sanjay here. Yes, I think from a revenue perspective, right now, our plans in the first half, as we provided, are lower, obviously, than the second half of '22. And we do expect an increase through the year really tied to IA and including in Semi Test. And we do expect that to occur in the SOC market as well.

好的。我是桑傑。是的，我認為從收入的角度來看，目前我們提供的上半年計劃顯然低於 22 年下半年的計劃。我們確實預計今年的增長確實與 IA 相關，包括半測試。我們確實希望 SOC 市場也會出現這種情況。

Yes. But we're not able to sort of predict a 2023 in full, so we really can't give you an exact percentage, this percent first half, this percent second half. We're cautiously optimistic that it will be bigger.

是的。但是我們無法完全預測 2023 年，所以我們真的不能給你一個確切的百分比，這個百分比是上半年，這個百分比是下半年。我們謹慎樂觀地認為它會更大。

Our next questions come from the line of Brian Chin with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Brian Chin。

Again, best of luck, Mark. And Greg, congratulations and look forward to working more with you.

再次祝你好運，馬克。格雷格，祝賀並期待與您合作更多。

Maybe first question, just to clarify on the complexity. You outlined again that you expect your largest customer to grow year-over-year and expect -- I believe that complexity-driven revenue will occur mostly in the second half of the year.

也許第一個問題，只是為了澄清複雜性。你再次概述了你希望你最大的客戶同比增長並期望 - 我相信複雜性驅動的收入將主要出現在今年下半年。

And so while the sizing sounds fairly similar, is this later than you anticipated maybe 3 months ago from a timing perspective? And just how would you describe why that those shipments could occur later towards the second half versus sort of maybe in 2Q, but where I might normally expect it to be concentrated?

因此，儘管規模聽起來相當相似，但從時間安排的角度來看，這是否比您 3 個月前預期的要晚？您如何描述為什麼這些出貨量可能會在下半年晚些時候發生，而不是可能在第二季度發生，但我通常預計它會集中在哪裡？

Yes. Thanks, Brian. Yes. I think it is a bit later than we've seen in some other years. Our customer always tends to firm up their demand during the second quarter. But oftentimes, they have sort of a directional idea of what they'll need.

是的。謝謝，布萊恩。是的。我認為這比我們在其他幾年看到的要晚一些。我們的客戶總是傾向於在第二季度加強他們的需求。但通常情況下，他們對自己需要什麼有某種方向性的想法。

I think the combination of softness in the smartphone end market and this technology transition is pushing those decisions a little bit later in the year. But that's sort of our outside observation.

我認為智能手機終端市場的疲軟和這種技術轉型正在推動這些決定在今年晚些時候做出。但這是我們的外部觀察。

Got it. And I mean this is probably just geared up to a plan at the moment, which obviously is subject to change or revision. But do you have sort of a -- or could you give us a sense of where test cell utilization is broadly across our device end markets? Maybe where you think it gets to by midyear and where it could end the year, based on your current planning?

知道了。我的意思是，這可能只是目前的計劃，顯然可能會發生變化或修訂。但是你有沒有——或者你能給我們一個關於測試單元利用率在我們的設備終端市場中廣泛使用的感覺嗎？根據您目前的計劃，也許您認為它會在年中到達哪里以及年底可能到達哪裡？

Yes. So it's -- measuring utilization is something that's challenging to do, and so the absolute numbers aren't perfectly trustworthy. The thing that we try to do is we try to use the sort of a consistent method to look at it each quarter, so that we can trust the deltas.

是的。所以它 - 衡量利用率是一件具有挑戰性的事情，因此絕對數字並不完全值得信賴。我們嘗試做的事情是我們嘗試使用一種一致的方法來每個季度查看它，以便我們可以信任增量。

So if things are moving down, then that's not great. If things are moving up, then that is a good leading indicator.

因此，如果事情正在下降，那就不好了。如果事情在向上發展，那麼這是一個很好的領先指標。

And what we've seen across the fourth quarter of 2022 is that utilization is declining, especially in OSATs. It's helped -- holding up a little bit better inside of IDMs.

我們在 2022 年第四季度看到的是利用率正在下降，尤其是在 OSAT 中。它有所幫助——在 IDM 中保持更好的狀態。

And we are -- we expect it to sort of bottom out around where it is, and potentially, utilization to increase through the back half of this year. But it's definitely softened in the second half of '22.

而且我們 - 我們預計它會在今年下半年觸底反彈，並且可能會在今年下半年增加利用率。但它在 22 年下半年肯定有所軟化。

Got it. I appreciate the comment. Maybe if I could just sneak one thing on Automation. Greg, you provide a growth rate for the OEM business through UR, 26% last year. Can you give us a sense of how large that is, the significance relative to UR sales? And also, is that margin profile similar or different relative to traditional channels?

知道了。我很欣賞這個評論。也許我可以在自動化上偷偷做一件事。 Greg，你通過 UR 為 OEM 業務提供了增長率，去年為 26%。你能告訴我們這對 UR 銷售的重要性有多大嗎？而且，相對於傳統渠道，利潤率概況是相似還是不同？

Let me take that in backwards order. So the margin in the OEM channel right now is the same or better than our traditional channels. So that is a potential operating margin improvement for that business.

讓我倒序來看。因此，目前 OEM 渠道的利潤率與我們的傳統渠道相同或更好。因此，這是該業務的潛在營業利潤率改善。

In terms of the portion of sales, if I'm recalling correctly, I think it was 16% of UR sales in 2022, but we probably should double check that number.

就銷售額的比例而言，如果我沒記錯的話，我認為它是 2022 年 UR 銷售額的 16%，但我們可能應該仔細檢查這個數字。

Our next questions come from the line of Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

The weakness in SOC test this year, Greg, you mentioned it was pretty broad-based. I guess I'm a little surprised that Eagle Test, Auto and Industrial could be weak as well, just given how your customers sound as of today. Are you seeing weakness kick in, in the near term? Or are you embedding some sort of conservatism as you progress into the second half?

今年 SOC 測試的弱點，格雷格，你提到它的基礎非常廣泛。我想我有點驚訝 Eagle Test、Auto 和 Industrial 也可能很弱，只是考慮到您的客戶今天的聲音。您是否看到短期內出現疲軟？或者你是否在進入下半場時嵌入了某種保守主義？

Yes. We're -- I think it's safe to say that we're baking in conservatism into the 2023 plan for Automotive and Industrial. It's been a very, very strong year for that in 2022, and it sustained very well through the whole year and into the first quarter. But we've definitely modeled declines in that market as well.

是的。我們 - 我認為可以肯定地說，我們正在將保守主義納入 2023 年汽車和工業計劃。 2022 年是非常非常強勁的一年，並且在全年和第一季度都保持得非常好。但我們肯定也模擬了該市場的下跌。

Got it. And then as my follow-up, a high-level question for you, Greg. I know you've been with the company for a long time, you've partnered with Mark for a long time. From a top-down kind of strategy standpoint, how you manage the portfolio? How you think about capital allocation? Buybacks versus M&A? What do you intend to inherit? And what are some of the changes you might introduce going forward?

知道了。然後作為我的後續行動，格雷格，一個高層次的問題要問你。我知道你在公司工作了很長時間，你和馬克合作了很長時間。從自上而下的戰略角度來看，您如何管理投資組合？您如何看待資本配置？回購還是併購？你打算繼承什麼？您可能會在未來引入哪些變化？

Yes. So it's an interesting question because I helped to bake this cake. The strategy that we have in terms of a capital allocation strategy that prioritizes M&A, share buybacks, dividends, nothing is going to change in terms of that strategy.

是的。所以這是一個有趣的問題，因為我幫忙烤了這個蛋糕。我們在優先考慮併購、股票回購、股息的資本配置戰略方面的戰略，就該戰略而言沒有任何改變。

The thing that's happened is we've been on the sidelines since 2019 in terms of M&A, mainly because when we did our analysis of the valuations, it didn't seem like we would be able to do something that was beneficial to our shareholders by using our capital in that way.

發生的事情是，自 2019 年以來，我們在併購方面一直處於觀望狀態，主要是因為當我們對估值進行分析時，我們似乎無法通過以下方式做對股東有利的事情以這種方式使用我們的資本。

It's a different market now. And we assume that valuations are going to become more reasonable. And so you may see different outcomes across the next few years than you've seen in the past few years.

現在是一個不同的市場。我們假設估值將變得更加合理。因此，未來幾年你可能會看到與過去幾年不同的結果。

That's not a reflection of a change in strategy, it's more of a change in the business conditions.

這並不是戰略變化的反映，更多的是商業環境的變化。

Our next questions come from the line of Vivek Arya with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Vivek Arya。

Congratulations and best wishes to both Mark and Greg. For my first one, from what you have described about the different segments, it seems like full-year sales are in the ballpark of being down 10% to 15% year-on-year. I just wanted to make sure I'm in the ballpark.

祝賀馬克和格雷格，並向他們致以最良好的祝愿。對於我的第一個，從你對不同細分市場的描述來看，全年銷售額似乎在同比下降 10% 到 15% 的範圍內。我只是想確保我在球場上。

And if yes, I wanted to check how you expect your mobility sales to do this year versus last year.

如果是，我想檢查一下您預計今年的移動銷售與去年相比如何。

It's Sanjay, Vivek. Thanks for the question. Yes, we do expect full-year sales to be down. And really, as you can see with our first quarter guide and our comments throughout the call, visibility is really unclear in the second half.

是桑傑，維維克。謝謝你的問題。是的，我們確實預計全年銷售額會下降。實際上，正如您在我們的第一季度指南和我們在整個電話會議中的評論中所看到的那樣，下半年的能見度真的很不清楚。

And that's something we've learned from prior downturns, the depth and the duration of this downturn is questionable. So it's really challenging to provide a full-year view. But I would give you the directional -- yes, we agree. We expect it to be down.

這是我們從之前的經濟衰退中學到的東西，這次經濟衰退的深度和持續時間值得懷疑。因此，提供全年視圖確實具有挑戰性。但我會給你方向——是的，我們同意。我們預計它會下降。

From a mobility perspective, again, in earlier questions, how do we view the TAM? We view the TAM in mobility to come down. And again, our revenues are expected to come down as well, as that market significantly, we believe, is softer, just given the inventory in the channel and demand coming down and volume.

同樣，從流動性的角度來看，在前面的問題中，我們如何看待 TAM？我們認為流動性中的 TAM 會下降。再一次，我們的收入預計也會下降，因為我們認為，考慮到渠道中的庫存和需求下降以及數量，該市場明顯疲軟。

Got it. And for my follow-up, I'm curious, for the 3-nanometer transition, do I absolutely need new testers? Or is it possible to just reuse existing tester capacity?

知道了。對於我的後續行動，我很好奇，對於 3 納米過渡，我是否絕對需要新的測試儀？或者是否可以只重用現有的測試儀容量？

Yes. Vivek, that's an excellent question. So unlike the memory market or the Wireless Test market, where you need new equipment for new standards, and that drives replacements, in node transitions like 3-nanometer, for the most part, the installed capacity is perfectly capable of testing the new part. And so the tester demand is really driven by increased complexity.

是的。 Vivek，這是一個很好的問題。因此，與內存市場或無線測試市場不同，在這些市場中，您需要新設備來滿足新標準，並推動更換，在 3 納米等節點過渡中，大多數情況下，裝機容量完全能夠測試新部件。因此，測試人員的需求實際上是由增加的複雜性驅動的。

So if you are testing a part that takes longer to test, you're going to need to add to your test capacity, test the part on both the stuff you already own and then the new testers that you buy.

因此，如果您正在測試一個需要更長測試時間的部件，您將需要增加測試能力，在您已經擁有的部件和您購買的新測試儀上測試該部件。

And so we look really carefully at how much of the industry is on a particular node because that drives basically the number of transistors that have to get tested. So it's definitely -- there's a high degree of reuse in the SOC market as nodes transition.

因此，我們非常仔細地查看特定節點上有多少行業，因為這基本上驅動了必須進行測試的晶體管數量。所以這絕對是——隨著節點的轉變，SOC 市場上有高度的重用。

Got it. So there is a scenario where, if 3-nanometer volumes are low enough, that they don't really need to buy new testers in the back half, right?

知道了。所以有一種情況，如果 3 納米的體積足夠低，他們真的不需要在後半部分購買新的測試儀，對嗎？

Yes. That's certainly one scenario. It's not our current best view, but things could certainly play out that way because of this balance of units versus complexity.

是的。那當然是一種情況。這不是我們目前的最佳觀點，但由於單位與復雜性之間的這種平衡，事情肯定會以這種方式發展。

Our next questions come from the line of Krish Sankar with Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Krish Sankar 和 Cowen 的對話。

Mark, thanks for all your help, and welcome, Greg.

馬克，感謝你的幫助，歡迎你，格雷格。

Two quick questions. First one, Sanjay, you mentioned about gross margins in the back half of the year kind of going back up.

兩個快速問題。第一個，Sanjay，你提到了今年下半年的毛利率有點回升。

Kind of curious, what gives you that comfort, especially given the fact that if auto does roll over, those are high-margin Eagle testers that get out of your profitability equation? So I'm just kind of curious on the second half gross margin. And then I have a follow-up.

有點好奇，是什麼讓您感到舒適，特別是考慮到如果汽車確實翻車，那些是高利潤的 Eagle 測試儀，它們會脫離您的盈利能力方程式？所以我只是對下半年的毛利率感到好奇。然後我有一個後續行動。

Sure. Thanks for the question. So I think a couple of things are included in our plan. The first thing is we expect to gain some operational efficiencies, some tied to specific programs, I would say, mainly in our IA portfolio. There are also some price increases baked into our -- that are rolling through in the second half, and some volume that is anticipated in the second half.

當然。謝謝你的問題。所以我認為我們的計劃中包含了一些內容。第一件事是我們希望獲得一些運營效率，一些與特定程序相關，我想說，主要是在我們的 IA 組合中。我們的價格也有一些上漲 - 下半年正在滾動，預計下半年會有一些銷量。

Got it. Got it. Very helpful. And then as a follow-up, maybe for Greg. Kind of curious, in the past, you folks have mentioned how -- I understand you're not impacted by some of these China export controls because it's more of a front end.

知道了。知道了。非常有幫助。然後作為後續行動，也許是針對 Greg。有點奇怪，過去，你們提到過——我知道你們沒有受到其中一些中國出口管制的影響，因為它更像是一個前端。

But the Chinese OSATs have been a big component of your China sales, and they might also see a slowdown if some of your front-end counterparts are seeing weakness. I'm kind of curious how to think about China on a go-forward basis, especially given the fact that through 2021 and the first half of 2022, Chinese OSATs seemed to have ordered a lot of equipment.

但中國 OSAT 一直是你們中國銷售的重要組成部分，如果你們的一些前端同行出現疲軟，他們也可能會放緩。我很好奇如何在未來的基礎上考慮中國，尤其是考慮到到 2021 年和 2022 年上半年，中國的 OSAT 似乎已經訂購了很多設備。

Yes. So that's -- it's a good question because most of the business that's going through Chinese OSATs, it comes from 2 places. There are local Chinese fabless specifiers that are driving volume through that value chain. And then there's also companies that are from other places that are utilizing those facilities.

是的。所以這是 - 這是一個很好的問題，因為大多數通過中國 OSAT 的業務來自兩個地方。中國本土的無晶圓廠製造商正在通過該價值鏈推動銷量。然後還有來自其他地方的公司正在利用這些設施。

What we expect is that, if there are issues in terms of producing chips in China because of any sort of restrictions, the non-Chinese specifiers will move their supply chains. They still need to build their chips. They will move to other parts of the world, other facilities to do that.

我們期望的是，如果由於任何形式的限制在中國生產芯片方面出現問題，非中國指定者將轉移他們的供應鏈。他們仍然需要構建自己的芯片。他們將轉移到世界其他地方，其他設施來做到這一點。

The indigenous Chinese sales, that could be affected by the new trade regulations that are in place. But I'd like to point out that, that's not the majority of our revenue in China, and it's not the majority of the business that -- of the TAM in China. So our exposure there is limited to probably less than 5% of our total revenues.

中國本土的銷售，可能會受到新的貿易法規的影響。但我想指出的是，這不是我們在中國的大部分收入，也不是中國 TAM 的大部分業務。因此，我們在那裡的風險敞口可能僅限於我們總收入的不到 5%。

Our next questions come from the line of Vedvati Shrotre with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vedvati Shrotre 與 Jefferies 的合作。

So I just wanted to dig in a little bit on the compute SOC side of things. So you mentioned that you're seeing a lot of digestion that's going on in the traditional x86 markets, where you have lower share.

所以我只是想深入了解一下計算 SOC 方面的事情。所以你提到你看到傳統 x86 市場正在發生大量消化，你的市場份額較低。

So does that, in a way, put you in a better position? Are you seeing things -- are things different on the hyperscalers versus the traditional x86 architectures?

那麼，在某種程度上，這會讓你處於更好的位置嗎？您是否看到了一些事情——超大規模計算器與傳統的 x86 架構有什麼不同嗎？

So that's a really good question because 2022 was a terrific year for traditional compute suppliers, and they drove a lot of tester purchases. We are seeing that soften in the back half of the year, and we expect that to remain soft, going into 2023.

所以這是一個非常好的問題，因為 2022 年對於傳統計算供應商來說是非常棒的一年，他們推動了大量測試儀的購買。我們看到這種情況在今年下半年有所緩和，我們預計這種情況會在 2023 年之前保持疲軟。

The new vertically integrated producers, including hyperscalers, are running to it on a different track. They have new parts that they're designing, that they're releasing to production. And those parts typically need different tester configurations that are driving capacity in different places than the traditional compute specifiers.

新的垂直整合生產商，包括超大規模生產商，正在不同的軌道上奔向它。他們有他們正在設計的新零件，他們正在發佈到生產中。這些部件通常需要不同的測試儀配置，這些配置在與傳統計算說明符不同的地方驅動容量。

So we do think that, that's going to be a stronger part of the compute market in 2023 than the traditional -- there'll be softness in the traditional market.

所以我們確實認為，到 2023 年，計算市場將比傳統市場更強大——傳統市場將會疲軟。

That's great. And then for my follow-up. On the automotive side, there's, I think, portion of your revenues are tied to legacy parts and some would be more on the ADAS side of things. Could you help me understand like what that split is, essentially? Is it a 50-50 split? Or is it more levered to traditional and less towards ADAS or other way around?

那太棒了。然後是我的後續行動。在汽車方面，我認為，你們的部分收入與遺留部件有關，有些收入更多地集中在 ADAS 方面。你能幫我理解這種分裂本質上是什麼嗎？是50-50的比例嗎？還是它更傾向於傳統而不是更傾向於 ADAS 或其他方式？

Yes. So it's definitely a market in transition. If you look back in time, legacy automotive parts, airbag controllers, engine controllers and MCUs, was sort of the majority of that market. And last year, that market would have been in the $600 million to $800 million range.

是的。所以這絕對是一個轉型中的市場。如果回顧過去，傳統汽車零部件、安全氣囊控制器、發動機控制器和 MCU 佔據了該市場的大部分。去年，該市場規模在 6 億至 8 億美元之間。

There are new part types, and there are 2 types of new part types. One are ADAS, which are complex digital devices. And the other would be power devices for battery management and for high-power management going into electric motors, in EVs and hybrid vehicles.

有新零件類型，有 2 種新零件類型。一種是 ADAS，這是一種複雜的數字設備。另一個是用於電池管理和用於電動馬達、電動汽車和混合動力汽車的高功率管理的功率器件。

That part is, in 2022, would probably have been maybe 2/3 of the size of the traditional automotive. Well, actually -- so the number that I gave you in terms of the size of the automotive market includes these new classes, and I would say that in 2022, it was probably a little bit more than half in these new stuff that's growing, the EV and ADAS, and slightly less than half in legacy.

到 2022 年，這部分可能是傳統汽車規模的 2/3。嗯，實際上——所以我給你的關於汽車市場規模的數字包括這些新類別，我想說的是，到 2022 年，這些正在增長的新東西可能會超過一半， EV 和 ADAS，略低於傳統的一半。

Moving forward, we expect the legacy stuff to track vehicle sales. So as vehicle sales increase, that would increase at a relatively slow rate. But the adoption of ADAS and the transition from internal combustion to electric vehicles is going to drive much higher growth rates in ADAS and power.

展望未來，我們希望傳統的東西能夠追踪汽車銷售。因此，隨著汽車銷量的增長，增長速度將相對緩慢。但 ADAS 的採用以及從內燃機到電動汽車的過渡將推動 ADAS 和電力的增長率更高。

And operator, can we sneak in just one last question, please?

接線員，我們可以偷偷問最後一個問題嗎？

Our final questions come from the line of Sidney Ho with Deutsche Bank.

我們的最後一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Sidney Ho。

I just have one question. So you talked about your largest customer going from less than 10% of sales to, I think, ['22]. So call it $300 million, going to low double digits in '23. So maybe $100 million increase. But that's still quite a bit lower than in 2021.

我只有一個問題。所以你談到你最大的客戶從不到銷售額的 10% 到，我認為，['22]。所以稱它為 3 億美元，在 23 年將下降兩位數。所以可能會增加 1 億美元。但這仍然比 2021 年低很多。

First, are those numbers right? And second, do you think that this, call it, $400 million range is the correct run rate, going forward, but maybe with less volatility than in the past?

首先，這些數字對嗎？其次，你認為這個，稱之為 4 億美元的範圍是正確的運行率，向前看，但波動性可能比過去小嗎？

Yes. So I don't think I want to comment on the specific numbers. But directionally, I think you're not wrong.

是的。所以我想我不想對具體數字發表評論。但在方向上，我認為你沒有錯。

And your comment about smoothing out the troughs, that's our belief as well. As to what the sort of steady state average is, I think we're going to have to wait and see.

還有你關於消除低谷的評論，這也是我們的信念。至於什麼樣的穩態平均值，我認為我們將不得不拭目以待。

We're pretty -- we have some optimism that, that average is going to be strong because of both new parts coming into the portfolio and the transition of the portfolio of all processors going to 3-nanometer and continuing to march in that way.

我們很樂觀——我們樂觀地認為，由於新部件進入產品組合以及所有處理器產品組合向 3 納米過渡並繼續以這種方式前進，平均水平將會很高。

So that's -- I think that's kind of our view, that we have some optimism that the peaks are going to be lower, the overall is going to be stronger.

所以這就是 - 我認為這是我們的觀點，我們對峰值會降低，整體會更強勁持樂觀態度。

All right, folks. And we've overstayed our welcome. So thank you so much for joining us today, and we look forward to talking with you in the weeks ahead. And those remaining in the queue, I'll get back to you later this morning. Thanks so much.

好的，伙計們。我們已經過了我們的歡迎期。非常感謝您今天加入我們，我們期待在未來幾週與您交談。還有那些留在隊列中的人，我會在今天早上晚些時候回复你。非常感謝。

Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. We appreciate your participation.

謝謝你。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。