泰瑞達 (TER) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Teradyne Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Call and Webcast.

您好，歡迎參加泰瑞達 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議和網絡廣播。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Andy Blanchard, Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you, Andy. You may begin.

提醒一下，本次會議正在錄製中。現在我很高興向您介紹主持人，投資者關係副總裁安迪·布蘭查德 (Andy Blanchard)。謝謝你，安迪。你可以開始了。

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone, and welcome to our discussion of Teradyne's most recent financial results. I'm joined this morning by our CEO, Greg Smith; and our CFO, Sanjay Mehta. Following our opening remarks, we'll provide details of our performance for 2023's second quarter, along with our outlook for the third quarter. The press release containing our second quarter results was issued last evening. We're providing slides on the Investor page of the website that may be helpful to you in following the discussion. Replays of this call will be available via the same page after the call ends.

謝謝運營商，大家早上好，歡迎參加我們對泰瑞達最新財務業績的討論。今天早上我們的首席執行官格雷格·史密斯 (Greg Smith) 也加入了我的行列。以及我們的首席財務官桑傑·梅塔 (Sanjay Mehta)。在我們的開場白之後，我們將提供 2023 年第二季度業績的詳細信息以及對第三季度的展望。包含我們第二季度業績的新聞稿於昨晚發布。我們在網站的投資者頁面上提供幻燈片，可能對您後續討論有所幫助。通話結束後，可以通過同一頁面重播此通話。

The matters that we discuss today will include forward-looking statements that involve risk factors that could cause Teradyne's results to differ materially from management's current expectations. We encourage you to review the safe harbor statement contained in the earnings release as well as our most recent SEC filings. Additionally, those forward-looking statements are made as of today, and we take no obligation to update them as a result of developments occurring after this call.

我們今天討論的事項將包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述涉及可能導致泰瑞達的業績與管理層當前預期存在重大差異的風險因素。我們鼓勵您查看收益報告中包含的安全港聲明以及我們最近向 SEC 提交的文件。此外，這些前瞻性陳述是截至今天作出的，我們沒有義務因本次電話會議後發生的事態發展而更新這些陳述。

During today's call, we'll make reference to non-GAAP financial measures. We've posted additional information concerning these non-GAAP financial measures, including reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure where available on the Investor page of our website. Looking ahead between now and our next earnings call, Teradyne expects to participate in technology or industrial-focused investor conferences hosted by KeyBanc, Jefferies, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, Citi and Evercore ISI.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將參考非公認會計準則財務指標。我們已經發布了有關這些非 GAAP 財務指標的更多信息，包括與我們網站投資者頁面上最直接可比的 GAAP 財務指標的調節。展望從現在到下一次財報電話會議，泰瑞達預計將參加由 KeyBanc、Jefferies、德意志銀行、高盛、花旗和 Evercore ISI 主辦的以技術或工業為重點的投資者會議。

Now let's get on with the rest of the agenda. First, Greg will comment on our recent results and the market conditions as we enter the third quarter. Sanjay will then offer more details on our quarterly results, along with our guidance for the third quarter. We'll then answer your questions. This call is scheduled for 1 hour. Greg?

現在讓我們繼續議程的其餘部分。首先，格雷格將評論我們最近的業績和進入第三季度時的市場狀況。然後，桑傑將提供有關我們季度業績的更多詳細信息以及我們對第三季度的指導。然後我們將回答您的問題。本次通話預計持續 1 小時。格雷格？

Thanks, Andy, and good morning, everyone. Today, I will summarize our Q2 and first half results, comment on the current business conditions and our view of the second half. Sanjay will provide the financial details on Q2, our outlook for Q3 and offer some financial guideposts for the rest of the year.

謝謝安迪，大家早上好。今天，我將總結我們第二季度和上半年的業績，評論當前的業務狀況以及我們對下半年的看法。 Sanjay 將提供第二季度的財務細節、我們對第三季度的展望，並提供今年剩餘時間的一些財務指南。

Second quarter sales were at the top of our guidance range as supply constraints eased. Earnings were above our guide on higher gross margins. At the halfway point of the year, overall company performance has unfolded as expected, but at the segment level, test was incrementally stronger and robotics weaker.

隨著供應限制的緩解，第二季度的銷售額處於我們指導範圍的頂部。由於毛利率較高，盈利高於我們的預期。年中，公司整體業績表現符合預期，但在細分市場層面，測試逐漸加強，機器人技術逐漸減弱。

In semiconductor test, we are 4 quarters into a correction cycle driven by excess inventory, which has hit the mobility part of the market hardest. Automotive demand has remained strong and in memory test, the growth of DDR5 and HBM devices for data center applications are driving retooling.

在半導體測試中，我們已進入由庫存過剩驅動的修正週期四個季度，這對市場的移動部分造成了最嚴重的打擊。汽車需求依然強勁，在內存測試中，數據中心應用的 DDR5 和 HBM 設備的增長正在推動設備重組。

In our wireless and system test businesses, demand remains muted, unchanged from our April view. Robotics demand has softened over the past 3 months with worsening PMIs and the short-term impacts of the transformation of the UR distribution channel. Looking forward to the rest of 2023, we estimate the 2023 SOC test market will be $3.7 billion to $4.1 billion, down 13% to 21% from 2022, but up from our outlook in April. The continued weakness in mobility has been offset by sustained strength in the automotive segment. Also since April, the accelerating build-out of AI-enabled cloud computing is driving test demand for compute and networking.

在我們的無線和系統測試業務中，需求仍然低迷，與我們 4 月份的觀點相同。由於 PMI 惡化以及 UR 分銷渠道轉型的短期影響，機器人需求在過去 3 個月有所疲軟。展望 2023 年剩餘時間，我們預計 2023 年 SOC 測試市場規模將為 37 億美元至 41 億美元，比 2022 年下降 13% 至 21%，但高於我們 4 月份的預期。移動出行的持續疲軟已被汽車領域的持續強勁所抵消。同樣自 4 月份以來，人工智能雲計算的加速發展正在推動計算和網絡的測試需求。

In memory test, we expect the market will be at the low end of a $900 million to $1 billion range we described in April. In this market, the impact of AI is evident, especially in the HBM DRAM segment, where we see incrementally stronger test demand for Magnum products through the second half of 2023. Although HBM represents a small portion of the overall memory market, it is in a rapid growth phase, moving from under 5% of the test market last year to 10% to 15% of the market in 2023. And our HBM share is higher than our overall memory share.

在內存測試中，我們預計市場將處於我們 4 月份描述的 9 億美元至 10 億美元區間的低端。在這個市場中，人工智能的影響是顯而易見的，特別是在 HBM DRAM 領域，我們看到到 2023 年下半年，對 Magnum 產品的測試需求將逐漸增強。雖然 HBM 只佔整個內存市場的一小部分，但它在快速增長階段，從去年測試市場的不到 5% 上升到 2023 年的 10% 到 15%。而且我們的 HBM 份額高於我們的整體內存份額。

This technology-driven strength is offset by weaker capacity buys, especially in flash for mobile applications. Despite the current downturn, we remain confident about the future of the semiconductor test market. The primary growth driver is an insatiable demand for increasing device complexity. This can be seen in cloud and edge AI applications like ADAS systems, spatial computing and privacy-focused consumer applications.

這種技術驅動的優勢被產能購買的減弱所抵消，尤其是在移動應用的閃存領域。儘管當前經濟低迷，我們對半導體測試市場的未來仍然充滿信心。主要的增長動力是對不斷增加的設備複雜性的永不滿足的需求。這可以在 ADAS 系統、空間計算和注重隱私的消費者應用程序等雲和邊緣人工智能應用程序中看到。

These require enormous compute power, higher wireless data rates and more sophisticated power management. We expect the automotive TAM will grow at a faster rate than the rest of the SOC market through this midterm driven by the growth of EVs and hybrids, broader adoption of features such as ADAS, cabin lighting and infotainment and the high test intensity required to achieve automotive quality levels.

這些需要巨大的計算能力、更高的無線數據速率和更複雜的電源管理。我們預計，在電動汽車和混合動力汽車增長、ADAS、座艙照明和信息娛樂等功能更廣泛採用以及實現目標所需的高測試強度的推動下，汽車 TAM 在本中期將以比其他 SOC 市場更快的速度增長。汽車質量水平。

The trend to vertically integrated producers or VIPs is a fundamental disruption to the computing segment and is beneficial to Teradyne. Companies that provide cloud computing, cloud AI and edge AI are seeking to differentiate their solutions by taking control of chip design. Efforts that began a few years ago are now beginning to proliferate in data centers and vehicles, and this trend will accelerate. Over the midterm, we expect the VIP portion of the compute segment will grow faster than the overall compute segment, and our share will be higher than in traditional compute customers.

垂直整合生產商或 VIP 的趨勢對計算領域產生了根本性破壞，對泰瑞達有利。提供雲計算、雲人工智能和邊緣人工智能的公司正在尋求通過控制芯片設計來實現其解決方案的差異化。幾年前開始的努力現在開始在數據中心和車輛領域激增，而且這一趨勢還將加速。從中期來看，我們預計計算領域的 VIP 部分的增長速度將快於整個計算領域，並且我們的份額將高於傳統計算客戶。

The semiconductor industry has a process technology road map that supports these new, more complex devices. 3-nanometer is ramping now and 2-nanometer and Gate All Around are coming soon. In advanced packaging, we see broader adoption of stacked die for high-bandwidth memory and chiplets for processors. These new technologies will drive longer test times and retooling to test new interface standards.

半導體行業有一個支持這些新的、更複雜的設備的工藝技術路線圖。 3 納米技術正在蓬勃發展，2 納米技術和 Gate All around 也即將推出。在先進封裝中，我們看到高帶寬內存的堆疊芯片和處理器的小芯片得到了更廣泛的採用。這些新技術將推動更長的測試時間和重組以測試新的接口標準。

Rolling that all up, our growth hypothesis for the semiconductor test market remains unchanged. A similar complexity road map drives our wireless and system test businesses. In wireless test, new standards like WiFi 6E and 7 require new or upgraded test equipment. In system test, increased device complexity is broadening the adoption of SLT and a very solid pipeline in defense and aerospace puts our system test group on a solid foundation for growth.

綜上所述，我們對半導體測試市場的增長假設保持不變。類似的複雜性路線圖推動著我們的無線和系統測試業務。在無線測試中，WiFi 6E和7等新標準需要新的或升級的測試設備。在系統測試中，設備複雜性的增加正在擴大 SLT 的採用範圍，而國防和航空航天領域非常堅實的管道為我們的系統測試團隊的發展奠定了堅實的基礎。

Shifting to the robotics portfolio. I want to take a moment to highlight that Ujjwal Kumar joined Teradyne earlier this month as the new President of our Robotics group, which includes UR and MiR. Ujjwal joins us from Honeywell, where he ran the Process Solutions business. His industrial automation and software background, combined with the deep experience in building businesses through organic and inorganic growth across multiple end markets is a great addition for Teradyne, and we are delighted to have him join our leadership team.

轉向機器人產品組合。我想花點時間強調一下，Ujjwal Kumar 於本月早些時候加入泰瑞達，擔任我們機器人團隊的新總裁，該團隊包括 UR 和 MiR。 Ujjwal 在加入我們之前就職於霍尼韋爾，負責流程解決方案業務。他的工業自動化和軟件背景，加上在多個終端市場通過有機和無機增長建立業務的豐富經驗，對泰瑞達來說是一個巨大的補充，我們很高興他加入我們的領導團隊。

In the second quarter, Robotics demand softened significantly. The trends that we noted in April have continued and intensified challenging economic conditions, particularly low PMIs in Europe and the U.S. have resulted in lower demand in our highest revenue regions. We have previously noted that channel transformation work at UR was having an impact on pipeline conversion. This trend has continued in Q2.

第二季度，機器人需求顯著疲軟。我們在 4 月份指出的趨勢仍在繼續，並加劇了充滿挑戰的經濟狀況，特別是歐洲和美國的 PMI 較低，導致我們最高收入地區的需求下降。我們之前曾指出，UR 的渠道轉型工作對渠道轉型產生了影響。這一趨勢在第二季度得到了延續。

Large account development and the build-out of the OEM channel are progressing well, but not quickly enough to cover for the market softness in the quarter. With lead times under 5 weeks, change in end market demand, especially with our current high exposure to small- and medium-sized businesses is felt quickly. However, there is no shortage in interest in our human scale automation products. We saw record lead generation from 2 major automation trade shows in the quarter, but there's a clear reluctance from customers to place orders in the short term. As a result, we are now projecting full year revenue for our Robotics group to be flat to down 10% from last year.

大客戶開發和 OEM 渠道建設進展順利，但速度不足以彌補本季度的市場疲軟。由於交貨時間不到 5 週，終端市場需求的變化很快就能感受到，尤其是我們目前對中小型企業的敞口很大。然而，人們對我們的人體規模自動化產品並不缺乏興趣。我們在本季度的兩個主要自動化貿易展上看到了創紀錄的潛在客戶產生量，但客戶顯然不願意在短期內下訂單。因此，我們現在預計機器人部門的全年收入將與去年持平，甚至下降 10%。

Despite the difficult macro environment and the short-term impact of our distribution changes, we believe that we will emerge from 2023 in a stronger position in Robotics. On the new product front, we began shipments in the quarter of our higher payload longer-reach UR20. Customers serving welding and metal fabrication and palletizing across a number of industrial verticals have driven demand for the UR20 and a triple-digit unit backlog. We will see our first UR20 revenue in Q3 and ramp shipments through the second half.

儘管宏觀環境困難，而且我們的分銷變化會產生短期影響，但我們相信，從 2023 年開始，我們將在機器人領域佔據更強大的地位。在新產品方面，我們的更高有效載荷、更長距離的 UR20 在本季度開始發貨。為多個工業垂直領域的焊接、金屬製造和碼垛服務的客戶推動了對 UR20 的需求以及三位數的單位積壓。我們將在第三季度看到第一個 UR20 收入，並在下半年增加出貨量。

We also introduced MiR Insights, a cloud-based tool to enable MiR customers to monitor and optimize large fleets across multiple workflows and sites more effectively. We are transforming the UR distribution channel in 2023. Recall, we are complementing our existing distribution channel with direct touch coverage at large customers and adding OEM partners that have high long-term growth potential.

我們還推出了 MiR Insights，這是一種基於雲的工具，使 MiR 客戶能夠更有效地跨多個工作流程和站點監控和優化大型車隊。我們將在 2023 年對 UR 分銷渠道進行轉型。回想一下，我們正在通過直接覆蓋大客戶來補充我們現有的分銷渠道，並增加具有較高長期增長潛力的 OEM 合作夥伴。

In the short term, it appears this shift is slowing sales from distributors that were dependent on a high level of UR sales support. Longer term, however, the change puts our focus on customers with the highest revenue potential. Although these changes will take several quarters to yield, we're confident that we're on the right path.

從短期來看，這種轉變似乎正在減緩依賴高水平 UR 銷售支持的分銷商的銷售。然而，從長遠來看，這一變化使我們將重點放在具有最高收入潛力的客戶上。儘管這些改變需要幾個季度才能見效，但我們相信我們正走在正確的道路上。

We've added 28 new OEM partners so far this year and are working with our distribution partners to directly engage with over 200 large customers.

今年到目前為止，我們已經增加了 28 個新的 OEM 合作夥伴，並正在與我們的分銷合作夥伴合作，直接與 200 多家大客戶互動。

At MiR, our focus on large accounts is yielding good results. This year, our installed base at large customers has grown 3x the rate of our overall installed base. We view Robotics as a long-term opportunity. The market drivers are clear: aging populations, rising wages, labor shortage and the reshoring of production to reduce cost and cycle time. We have innovative, market-leading products serving a market that has the potential to grow to tens of billions of dollars per year. Our customers have already demonstrated the value of our product and ecosystem in their operations, and they're partnering with us to extend our robots performance to expand the range of tasks they are planning to automate.

在 MiR，我們對大客戶的關注正在產生良好的結果。今年，我們的大客戶安裝量增長了整體安裝量的 3 倍。我們將機器人視為一個長期機遇。市場驅動因素很明顯：人口老齡化、工資上漲、勞動力短缺以及生產回流以降低成本和周期時間。我們擁有市場領先的創新產品，服務於每年有潛力增長到數百億美元的市場。我們的客戶已經在他們的運營中展示了我們的產品和生態系統的價值，他們正在與我們合作，擴展我們的機器人性能，以擴大他們計劃自動化的任務範圍。

Teradyne brings the foundational expertise in engineering, operations and customer support needed to enable UR and MiR to become premier providers of human scale automation. We are putting the structure in place to support $1 billion in profitable sales by the end of the midterm. This is a long-term project, but we are seeing the early signs of this work yielding.

Teradyne 帶來了工程、運營和客戶支持方面的基礎專業知識，使 UR 和 MiR 成為人體規模自動化的首要提供商。我們正在建立結構，以在中期末支持 10 億美元的盈利銷售。這是一個長期項目，但我們已經看到這項工作取得成果的早期跡象。

Wrapping it all up, our test businesses are performing better than planned through the first 6 months, and we expect that performance to continue through the second half. Automotive and memory are our strongest markets in test this year and a combination of inventory reductions and new products should enable the mobility market to recover next year. Our Robotics business was below plan in the first half. And while we expect a stronger second half for the group, we expect to be below our growth and financial plan for the full year.

總而言之，我們的測試業務在前 6 個月的表現優於計劃，我們預計這種表現將持續到下半年。汽車和內存是我們今年測試的最強勁市場，庫存減少和新產品的結合將使移動市場明年復蘇。上半年我們的機器人業務低於計劃。雖然我們預計該集團下半年會表現強勁，但預計全年的增長和財務計劃將低於我們的目標。

Our plans to transform our distribution and expand our product line are on track. We are carefully managing our spending in this business while we execute these changes. With that, I'll turn things over to Sanjay for the financial details. Sanjay?

我們的分銷轉型和產品線擴展計劃正在按計劃進行。在執行這些變革的同時，我們正在仔細管理我們在該業務中的支出。這樣，我會將事情交給 Sanjay 了解財務細節。桑傑？

Thank you, Greg. Good morning, everyone. Today, I'll cover the financial summary of Q2, provide our Q3 outlook and full year planning assumptions. I will also update you on our supply chain and resiliency progress.

謝謝你，格雷格。大家，早安。今天，我將介紹第二季度的財務摘要，提供第三季度的展望和全年計劃假設。我還將向您介紹我們的供應鍊和彈性進展的最新情況。

Now to Q2. Second quarter sales were $684 million, which was at the high end of our guide, with non-GAAP EPS, $0.79, which was above our high guide of $0.74. Non-GAAP gross margins were 58.8%, above our guidance due to deferred resiliency costs until later in the year and improved product mix. Non-GAAP operating expenses were $251 million, flat with the first quarter. Non-GAAP operating profit was 22%.

現在到第二季度。第二季度銷售額為 6.84 億美元，處於我們指導的上限，非 GAAP 每股收益為 0.79 美元，高於我們指導的 0.74 美元的上限。由於彈性成本推遲到今年晚些時候以及產品組合的改善，非 GAAP 毛利率為 58.8%，高於我們的指導。非 GAAP 運營支出為 2.51 億美元，與第一季度持平。非 GAAP 營業利潤為 22%。

We had one 10% customer in the quarter. The tax rate, excluding discrete items for the quarter was 16.5% on a GAAP basis and 17.2% on a non-GAAP basis. Semi Test revenue for the quarter was $475 million with SOC revenue contributing $355 million and Memory $120 million.

本季度我們有一個 10% 的客戶。按 GAAP 計算，本季度的稅率（不包括離散項目）為 16.5%，按非 GAAP 計算為 17.2%。本季度半測試收入為 4.75 億美元，其中 SOC 收入貢獻 3.55 億美元，存儲器收入貢獻 1.2 億美元。

As Greg noted, we continue to see SOC strength concentrated in the auto end market. Memory sales were weighted towards technology-driven buys as the industry ramps new, higher-speed devices like protocol flash for smartphones, DDR5 and HBM DRAM for server applications.

正如 Greg 指出的那樣，我們繼續看到 SOC 的優勢集中在汽車終端市場。隨著行業不斷推出新的、更高速的設備，例如用於智能手機的協議閃存、用於服務器應用的 DDR5 和 HBM DRAM，內存銷售偏重於技術驅動的購買。

System Test Group Q2 revenue was $94 million with $38 million in storage test, which has been down all year on continued low SLT and HDD production demand. In wireless test, revenue was $44 million in Q2 with ongoing low demand from both PC and smartphone end markets.

系統測試集團第二季度收入為 9400 萬美元，其中存儲測試收入為 3800 萬美元，由於 SLT 和 HDD 生產需求持續較低，該收入全年都在下降。在無線測試中，由於 PC 和智能手機終端市場的需求持續低迷，第二季度的收入為 4400 萬美元。

Now to Robotics. Revenue in Q2 was $72 million with UR contributing $58 million and MiR $14 million, which was below plan, as Greg noted. FX did not have a material impact on our top or bottom-line results. Shifting back to the company level financials. Our free cash flow was $104 million in the quarter. We repurchased $135 million of shares in the quarter, paid $17 million in dividends and settled $2 million of debt. We have $33 million of convertible debt remaining. We ended the quarter with $813 million in cash and marketable securities.

現在談談機器人。 Greg 指出，第二季度的收入為 7200 萬美元，其中 UR 貢獻了 5800 萬美元，MiR 貢獻了 1400 萬美元，這低於計劃。外匯對我們的頂線或底線業績沒有產生重大影響。回到公司層面的財務狀況。本季度我們的自由現金流為 1.04 億美元。我們在本季度回購了 1.35 億美元的股票，支付了 1700 萬美元的股息，並償還了 200 萬美元的債務。我們還剩下 3300 萬美元的可轉換債務。本季度結束時，我們擁有 8.13 億美元的現金和有價證券。

Now to our outlook for Q3. Q3 sales are expected to be between $650 million and $710 million, with non-GAAP EPS in a range of $0.61 to $0.81 on 163 million diluted shares. The third quarter guidance excludes the amortization of acquired intangibles and restructuring and other charges. This outlook is above our April view at the company level, but under the covers, test is incrementally stronger and robotics softer. Third quarter gross margins are estimated at 56% to 57%. OpEx is expected to run at 35% to 38% of third quarter sales down slightly from Q2.

現在我們對第三季度的展望。第三季度的銷售額預計將在 6.5 億美元至 7.1 億美元之間，1.63 億股稀釋後的非 GAAP 每股收益將在 0.61 美元至 0.81 美元之間。第三季度指引不包括收購無形資產的攤銷以及重組和其他費用。這一前景高於我們 4 月份公司層面的預期，但在幕後，測試逐漸加強，機器人技術更加疲軟。第三季度毛利率預計為56%至57%。運營支出預計將佔第三季度銷售額的 35% 至 38%，較第二季度略有下降。

Non-GAAP operating profit rate at the midpoint of our third quarter guidance is 20%. A little more color on our revenue and gross margin profile for the second half. Our revenue guidance excludes approximately $35 million of test demand tied to supply constraints in Q3, which we expect to resolve in Q4. As a result, we expect Q4 revenue to be similar to the Q3 level. If we clear some of these supply constraints earlier, some Q4 revenue and resulting profits will shift into Q3. That will put second half revenue at roughly 51% of the full year.

我們第三季度指引的中點非 GAAP 營業利潤率為 20%。我們下半年的收入和毛利率概況有更多的色彩。我們的收入指引不包括與第三季度供應限制相關的約 3500 萬美元的測試需求，我們預計該問題將在第四季度得到解決。因此，我們預計第四季度收入將與第三季度水平相似。如果我們儘早消除其中一些供應限制，第四季度的一些收入和由此產生的利潤將轉移到第三季度。這將使下半年的收入約為全年的 51%。

Shifting to gross margins. Our long-term model has gross margins at 59% to 60%. In 2021 and 2022, we were in our model range with margins at 59.6% and 59.2%, respectively. In April, we noted that we expected full year 2023 gross margins to be at 57% to 58% due in part to transitory cost of adding new manufacturing sites for our test products, geographically multi-sourcing components and subassemblies to reduce supply line risks.

轉向毛利率。我們的長期模型毛利率為 59% 至 60%。 2021 年和 2022 年，我們的模型範圍內的利潤率分別為 59.6% 和 59.2%。 4 月份，我們指出，預計 2023 年全年毛利率將為 57% 至 58%，部分原因是為我們的測試產品、地理上多采購零部件和組件增加新製造基地以降低供應線風險的臨時成本。

We're also developing multi-country capability of some of our design services work. In past calls, we noted expected margins to be lowest in Q1 and improve through the year. However, the timing of these resiliency costs shifted to later in the year, which was a driver of outperformance on gross margin in Q1 and Q2. Since that spending will now happen in the second half, our margins in Q3 and Q4 will drop to reflect these costs.

我們還正在開發一些設計服務工作的多國能力。在過去的電話會議中，我們注意到預計第一季度的利潤率將最低，並在全年有所改善。然而，這些彈性成本的時間轉移到了今年晚些時候，這是第一季度和第二季度毛利率表現優異的推動因素。由於支出將在下半年發生，因此我們第三季度和第四季度的利潤率將下降，以反映這些成本。

Net-net, we continue to expect 57% to 58% gross margins for the full year, however, some of these transitory resiliency costs have been deferred until the second half of the year.

淨淨值，我們繼續預計全年毛利率為 57% 至 58%，但是，其中一些暫時的彈性成本已推遲到今年下半年。

Regarding OpEx for the full year. No change from our prior guide as we expect full year 2023 OpEx to be roughly flat compared with 2022. Now to profitability for Robotics for the full year. As Greg mentioned, we expect lower Robotic sales for the year. Even at these reduced revenue levels, Robotics' gross margins are above the corporate average, and while we expect UR to be profitable, the Robotics group overall is now expected to have an operating loss for the year. Our GAAP and non-GAAP tax rates are forecasted to be 16.5% and 17% respectively, in 2023.

關於全年運營支出。與我們之前的指南相比沒有變化，因為我們預計 2023 年全年運營支出將與 2022 年大致持平。現在我們來看看機器人技術全年的盈利能力。正如格雷格提到的，我們預計今年的機器人銷售額將會下降。即使在收入水平下降的情況下，Robotics 的毛利率仍高於公司平均水平，雖然我們預計 UR 將實現盈利，但目前預計 Robotics 集團今年將出現運營虧損。 2023 年，我們的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 稅率預計分別為 16.5% 和 17%。

Summing up. Our stronger test businesses in Q2 more than balanced weaker Robotic shipments, leading to sales at the high end of guidance with gross margin improvements, yielding profits above our high guidance. We're executing our plan to improve the resiliency of our supply chain and engineering services. We're modeling full year gross margins in the 57% to 58% range, in line with our April outlook, and are on track to hold our full year OpEx flat with last year. We have a strong balance sheet to support organic and inorganic growth while we continue returning excess cash to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends.

加起來。我們在第二季度強勁的測試業務超過了機器人出貨量的疲軟，導致銷售達到指導的高端，毛利率提高，產生的利潤高於我們的高指導。我們正在執行提高供應鍊和工程服務彈性的計劃。我們預計全年毛利率將在 57% 至 58% 範圍內，這與我們 4 月份的展望一致，並且全年運營支出有望與去年持平。我們擁有強大的資產負債表來支持有機和無機增長，同時我們繼續通過股票回購和股息向股東返還多餘現金。

With that, I'll turn the call back over to Andy. Andy?

這樣，我會將電話轉回給安迪。安迪？

Thanks, Sanjay. Operator, we'd now like to take some questions. And as a reminder, please limit yourself to 1 question and a follow-up.

謝謝，桑傑。接線員，我們現在想回答一些問題。提醒一下，請將自己限制在 1 個問題和一個後續問題內。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our first question is from Timothy Arcuri with UBS.

我們的第一個問題來自瑞銀集團的蒂莫西·阿庫裡。

I had a question on the revision of the TAM, SOC TAM. So you took it up about $300 million. Can you talk about where that's coming from? Is that all in auto, so autos goes from 6 to 9 this year? And then also in that, I think you previously had said that your share would be in the kind of 38% to 39% range this year. Is that still the expectation even on this higher TAM?

我對 TAM、SOC TAM 的修訂有疑問。所以你拿了大約3億美元。你能談談它是從哪裡來的嗎？這一切都在汽車領域嗎？今年汽車數量從 6 增加到 9 嗎？另外，我想您之前曾說過，今年您的份額將在 38% 到 39% 的範圍內。即使對於更高的 TAM，這仍然是期望嗎？

Sure. Roughly at the midpoint last time we guided the SOC TAM at the midpoint of about $3.6 billion now, obviously, as Greg noted, $3.7 billion to $4.1 billion, so roughly a $300 million increase, and that's really tied to the compute market, as a key driver. And we're rounding to hundreds of millions, but it's mainly in Compute. Then I would say from a share perspective, our view on the full year is that we're roughly flat and may tick up a bit.

當然。上次我們指導 SOC TAM 的中間值約為 36 億美元，顯然，正如 Greg 指出的那樣，從 37 億美元到 41 億美元，大約增加了 3 億美元，這確實與計算市場相關，因為關鍵驅動因素。我們四捨五入到數億，但主要是在計算領域。然後我想說，從股票的角度來看，我們對全年的看法是，我們的股價大致持平，可能會略有上升。

Okay. Got it. Then can you give a sense of just storage for the full year and sort of how you see that evolving next year? I think the expectation is still that it's going to be very soft in Q4 and then do you think that's going to rebound as you kind of get into the first part of next year?

好的。知道了。那麼您能否介紹一下全年的存儲情況以及您對明年存儲情況的看法？我認為人們的預期仍然是第四季度將非常疲軟，然後您認為隨著明年上半年的到來，這種情況會反彈嗎？

So this is Greg. Yes, we think that storage is sort of running along at a minimal ship rate. We're going to expect to continue at that rate. And there might be a recovery in 2024, but I don't think it would be a first half thing. I think that there's still a fair amount of softness in the end market for HDD, a fair amount of oversupply. So it's really only one we're going to see significant capacity inflection. When HAMR comes online and demand increases, that will drive higher test times and ultimately drive additional capacity purchases, but that's probably further out in time than the first half of next year.

這就是格雷格。是的，我們認為存儲是在以最低的運輸速度運行。我們預計將繼續保持這一速度。 2024 年可能會出現復甦，但我認為這不會是上半年的事情。我認為硬盤終端市場仍然相當疲軟，供應過剩。因此，這實際上只是我們將看到的重大產能變化之一。當 HAMR 上線並且需求增加時，這將導致更長的測試時間並最終推動額外的容量購買，但這可能比明年上半年要晚一些。

Our next question is from Mehdi Hosseini with Susque?

我們的下一個問題是 Mehdi Hosseini 和 Susque 提出的？

Just going back to SOC TAM, I wanted to get an update how you see the transistor density growth evolving into 2024. I remind you, a couple of years ago, the SOC test was benefiting handsomely and then we had the pause, and I'm just trying to get an understanding of how that growth rate is evolving into next year? And I have a follow-up.

回到 SOC TAM，我想了解您如何看待 2024 年晶體管密度增長的最新情況。我提醒您，幾年前，SOC 測試受益匪淺，然後我們暫停了，我'我只是想了解明年的增長率如何演變？我有一個後續行動。

This is Greg. So the semiconductor process road map seems to be pretty much in line with what we saw before, perhaps a little bit ramping 3-nanometer a little bit more slowly than we would have expected maybe back in 2020. But in terms of -- compared to recent events, it's pretty much on track. The key thing is that those complexity transitions are occurring in a market where end unit volumes, especially in mobile are significantly down.

這是格雷格。因此，半導體工藝路線圖似乎與我們之前看到的非常一致，也許 3 納米的發展速度比我們在 2020 年的預期要慢一些。從最近發生的事情來看，一切都已步入正​​軌。關鍵是，這些複雜性轉變發生在終端銷量（尤其是移動終端銷量）大幅下降的市場中。

So even though the complexity increases are happening, and we are seeing sort of the expected changes in test time, there's a fair amount of idle capacity because of the unit declines that's being filled versus driving new tester purchases. So I hope that answers your question. But basically, we think that the pace of new process adoption is kind of going as we expected.

因此，儘管複雜性正在增加，並且我們看到了測試時間的預期變化，但由於正在填補的單位數量下降而不是推動新測試儀的購買，因此仍然存在相當多的閒置容量。所以我希望這能回答你的問題。但基本上，我們認為新流程採用的步伐符合我們的預期。

Does that imply that the growth rate would accelerate in '24? Or would that remain the same?

這是否意味著24年增長率將會加快？還是會保持不變？

So I think our view of 2024 is that the number of high-volume 3-nanometer devices is definitely going to increase. So there'll be more chips on 3-nanometer. And the sort of third-party reports that we see around end market is that it's up, but not up dramatically. So I've seen numbers between 3% and 5% in terms of smartphone unit volume increases. So we definitely think that there's going to be 3-nanometer coming from more fabs. They're going to be more parts on 3-nanometer and volumes are going to be up. So we think that 2024 is going to be incrementally stronger than 2023.

因此，我認為我們對 2024 年的看法是，大批量 3 納米器件的數量肯定會增加。因此將會有更多 3 納米芯片。我們在終端市場看到的第三方報告顯示，終端市場的價格有所上漲，但漲幅並不顯著。因此，我看到智能手機銷量增長了 3% 到 5%。因此，我們確信更多的晶圓廠將會生產 3 納米工藝。更多的部件將採用 3 納米技術，並且產量也會增加。因此，我們認為 2024 年將比 2023 年更加強勁。

Our next question is from Vivek Arya with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Vivek Arya。

Greg, I think in the last call, you said tester utilization in Q1 was kind of a generational low. Where do you think it is now? Because when I look at where consensus expectations are for Teradyne next year, they are for almost 25% sales growth. And I'm trying to understand when do you start to see the orders to justify those kind of growth expectations if utilization still remains at these kind of generational lows?

格雷格，我想在上次通話中，您說過第一季度的測試人員利用率是一代人的低點。你認為現在在哪裡？因為當我查看泰瑞達明年的普遍預期時，他們的銷售額增長近 25%。我試圖了解，如果利用率仍然保持在這種世代低點，您什麼時候開始看到訂單來證明這種增長預期是合理的？

Vivek, thanks for the question. So, the good news is that utilization hasn't gotten any worse. So the -- and frankly, it's up a bit. So in the 2% to 5% increase in terms of utilization of Teradyne equipment. So our view is really of our own fleet. The thing that I will tell you is that there's a significant disparity in utilization between IDMs and subcons. So utilization inside of IDMs is in the upper 80s, and that's well into the range where our customers are actively adding capacity. And that's really the strength that we see in automotive.

維韋克，謝謝你的提問。因此，好消息是利用率並沒有變得更糟。所以坦率地說，它有所上升。因此在泰瑞達設備的利用率方面提高了2%到5%。所以我們的觀點實際上是我們自己的艦隊。我要告訴您的是，IDM 和分包商之間的利用率存在顯著差異。因此，IDM 內部的利用率處於 80 左右，這完全符合我們的客戶積極增加產能的範圍。這確實是我們在汽車領域看到的優勢。

In subcons, the utilization is nearly 20 points lower, but it is heading in the right direction. So I think it's a really good question in terms of how much that idle capacity will impact the size of business in 2024. So we are -- that's sort of factored into our plans. We think 2024 would be stronger, but we really don't have a great idea about how much stronger it will be.

在分包商中，利用率低了近 20 個百分點，但正在朝著正確的方向發展。因此，我認為，就閒置產能將在 2024 年對業務規模產生多大影響而言，這是一個非常好的問題。因此，我們將這一點納入了我們的計劃中。我們認為 2024 年會更強大，但我們真的不知道它會強大到什麼程度。

And then maybe 1 follow-up on the IA business, right? It's very innovative. The value proposition makes sense, but it has sort of consistently underperformed its potential, and I don't think it's ever been profitable. And I'm curious, what has been the disconnect? Is it really a structural growth business because it's actually declined 2 out of the last 4 years. So what's been that disconnect? What will change in the future? And just kind of related to that, do you think the competitive and pricing environment will be more or less favorable in that business for the next few years?

然後也許是 IA 業務的 1 個後續行動，對吧？這是非常有創新性的。這個價值主張是有道理的，但它一直未能發揮其潛力，而且我認為它從未盈利過。我很好奇，到底是什麼造成了這種脫節？它真的是一個結構性增長業務嗎？因為它實際上在過去 4 年中有 2 年出現了下滑。那麼這種脫節是什麼？未來會發生什麼變化？與此相關的是，您認為未來幾年該業務的競爭和定價環境會或多或少有利嗎？

So it's a good question. The first thing that I'll point out is that the group has consistently underperformed our profit targets. It hasn't consistently lost money. So this is the -- I think this is really the first year where we're projecting a loss for that group. But you're right. We are in Robotics for growth, and we're not delivering the growth that we expected to from this business. And what we're really discovering is that there's a -- if I'm going to sort of sum it up, we misunderstood how large the potential end market is.

所以這是一個好問題。我要指出的第一件事是，該集團的業績一直低於我們的利潤目標。它並沒有持續虧損。所以，我認為這確實是我們預測該集團出現虧損的第一年。但你是對的。我們進入機器人領域是為了實現增長，但我們並沒有實現我們對這項業務的預期增長。我們真正發現的是，如果我要總結一下，我們誤解了潛在的終端市場有多大。

And how much the early years of those business was driven by very sophisticated early adopters, people that were like robot enthusiasts. And what we found is that as we satisfied those early enthusiasts and started moving into a larger market where people were more focused on just buying a solution that they didn't have the skills that they needed to put these robots into operation. So that's the logic behind our transformation in the channel at UR that by shifting more emphasis towards solution providers like OEMs, we're going to be able to provide solutions that are at the level of the capability of our customers, and by directly connecting to larger customers, those are customers that have the heft to be able to maintain and implement the robots within their organizations.

這些業務的早期發展在很大程度上是由非常成熟的早期採用者（例如機器人愛好者）推動的。我們發現，當我們滿足了那些早期的愛好者並開始進入更大的市場時，人們更專注於購買解決方案，而他們不具備將這些機器人投入運行所需的技能。這就是我們 UR 渠道轉型背後的邏輯，通過將更多的重點轉向 OEM 等解決方案提供商，我們將能夠提供符合客戶能力水平的解決方案，並通過直接連接到較大的客戶，這些客戶有能力在其組織內維護和實施機器人。

So I think that the things that we're discovering is that the challenge in Robotics isn't as much around technology as it is a go-to-market and a product market fit challenge, and we have a lot of evidence that our products do deliver value. We just are working out the best way to get them into the hands of our customers in a way that they're going to be able to easily adopt them.

因此，我認為我們發現的事情是，機器人技術的挑戰並不在於技術，而在於進入市場和產品市場契合度的挑戰，而且我們有大量證據表明我們的產品創造價值。我們只是想出最好的方法，將它們交到我們的客戶手中，讓他們能夠輕鬆採用。

Competitive environment.

競爭環境。

Yes. So thanks for the cue, Andy. So in terms of the competitive environment, the UR is a clear leader in its space. It has more than 3x the market share of our nearest competitor. And our share is in the mid-30s. We see 2 kinds of competitors, industrial robot makers that are pivoting into cobots and sort of pure-play cobot companies, mostly from China. We have not lost any significant share to the industrial robot players that have entered the cobot market in the past couple of years, but we have lost a few points of share to the Chinese pure-play entrants. And almost all of that share losses specifically in China.

是的。謝謝你的提示，安迪。因此，就競爭環境而言，UR 顯然是其領域的領導者。它的市場份額是我們最接近的競爭對手的三倍多。我們的份額在 30 多歲。我們看到兩種競爭對手，一種是轉向協作機器人的工業機器人製造商，另一種是純粹的協作機器人公司，其中大部分來自中國。在過去的幾年裡，我們並沒有失去任何進入協作機器人市場的工業機器人玩家的重要份額，但我們已經失去了一些中國純粹的進入者的份額。幾乎所有的份額損失都來自中國。

So I said that our share is like mid-30s worldwide. If you exclude China, our share worldwide is over 50% or around 50% and it's much, much lower in China. And to be really frank, we are struggling with coming up with the best solution to gain share in China because a lot of that market is being served at prices that aren't profitable for us. And we're not really interested in growth at the expense of overall profitability.

所以我說我們的份額在全球範圍內大約是 30 多歲。如果排除中國，我們在全球的份額超過 50% 或 50% 左右，而中國的份額要低得多。坦白說，我們正在努力尋找最佳解決方案來贏得中國市場份額，因為很多市場的價格對我們來說是無利可圖的。我們對以犧牲整體盈利能力為代價的增長並不真正感興趣。

In AMRs, it's the Wild, Wild West. We have about -- the total AMR market is about $2 billion per year, and our share is probably in the range of about 3%, and we're in a crowd of a whole bunch of other companies that are in that 1% to 6% range. The thing there is that it's very fragmented. There's no clear leader. And we are really working on trying to establish strategic relationships with global customers because they're the ones that have the ability to adopt large fleets. So I think we see competition, but we believe that it's fragmented and we'll be able to outperform.

在 AMR 中，這是狂野的西部。我們的 AMR 市場總額約為每年 20 億美元，我們的份額可能在 3% 左右，而我們屬於這一領域的一大群其他公司，這些公司的份額在 1% 到 1% 之間。 6%範圍。問題是它非常分散。沒有明確的領導者。我們確實正在努力與全球客戶建立戰略關係，因為他們有能力採用大型機隊。所以我認為我們看到了競爭，但我們相信競爭是分散的，我們將能夠表現出色。

Our next question is from C.J. Muse with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 C.J. Muse。

I guess first question, I was hoping you could speak in more detail around the $35 million shortage. Is that specific to auto? And I guess what would enable those revenues to come in earlier in Q3?

我想第一個問題是，我希望你能更詳細地討論 3500 萬美元的短缺問題。這是汽車特有的嗎？我想什麼能讓這些收入在第三季度提前到來？

Sure. It's Sanjay. Thanks for the question. I'd say it's spread across the entire Semi Test portfolio across many of the product lines. And the supply shortages are, as I've noted in the past, really tied to analog and linear logic. A couple of other items, but those are the ones that as we're working with our supply chain partners as supply comes online, to enable that. And so right now, it's excluded from the range, and we're trying to be transparent just as we have over the last couple of years. And I just want to be clear that if that does come out of Q4 and is provided into Q3, it shouldn't have an overall impact on the second half of the year.

當然。這是桑傑。謝謝你的提問。我想說它遍布整個半測試產品組合的許多產品線。正如我過去所指出的，供應短缺實際上與模擬和線性邏輯有關。還有其他一些項目，但這些是我們與供應鏈合作夥伴在供應上線時合作實現的項目。所以現在，它被排除在這個範圍之外，我們正在努力保持透明，就像過去幾年一樣。我只是想澄清，如果這確實從第四季度產生並提供到第三季度，那麼它不應該對今年下半年產生總體影響。

Makes sense. I guess for mobility for '24, you gave some great detail earlier, but I was hoping perhaps you could kind of rank order 3-nanometer complexity, unit growth, potential for edge AI demand? And any other kind of drivers we should be thinking about to support growth for that business next year?

說得通。我想對於 24 世紀的移動性，您之前提供了一些詳細信息，但我希望您可以對 3 納米複雜性、單位增長、邊緣人工智能需求潛力進行排序？我們應該考慮哪些其他類型的驅動因素來支持明年該業務的增長？

Specifically in mobile or... So in mobile, I would say that we bake edge AI into the complexity factor. So the edge AI is the market pull that is causing the chipset, the mobile processor developers to go to 3-nanometer and to increase their transistor counts a lot. So I lump that. I think that's probably the key driver for complexity in mobile is increasing the capability for AI in the handset.

特別是在移動領域或者……所以在移動領域，我想說我們將邊緣人工智能融入到復雜性因素中。因此，邊緣人工智能是市場的拉動，導致芯片組、移動處理器開發商轉向 3 納米並大量增加晶體管數量。所以我把它歸為一類。我認為，手機中人工智能功能的增強可能是移動領域複雜性的關鍵驅動因素。

Having said that, the pace at which complexity increases is kind of linear. It's not -- it hasn't inflected up. It's not inflecting down. It's been a pretty consistent factor. The thing that we see inflecting in 2024 is the unit volume. So when we look at this, we tend to look at peak quarters, peak shipment quarters and the peak shipment quarter in 2020 was 20% higher than the peak shipment quarter in 2022 for smartphones. And that's a pretty big hole to try and dig out of. So next year, unit volume is going to inflect and complexity has been increasing over the past -- will have been over the past 4 years. So we expect to see unit volume being the driver.

話雖如此，複雜性增加的速度是線性的。它不是——它還沒有變化。它沒有向下彎曲。這是一個非常一致的因素。我們看到 2024 年發生的變化是單位體積。因此，當我們看待這個問題時，我們傾向於關注高峰季度、高峰出貨季度，而 2020 年智能手機高峰出貨季度比 2022 年高峰出貨季度高出 20%。這是一個相當大的坑，需要嘗試挖出來。因此，明年，單位數量將會發生變化，複雜性將在過去四年中不斷增加。因此，我們預計單位體積將成為驅動因素。

Our next question is from Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Samik Chatterjee。

I guess if I can start on a somewhat related topic on AI. You mentioned the benefit or the demand you're seeing on the memory side. But, maybe if you can share your thoughts about 2024, if you're looking at next year, where sort of the biggest impact on the business will be from an AI demand perspective, memory and any other pieces that you see that demand coming through? And I have a follow-up.

我想我是否可以從一個與人工智能相關的話題開始。您提到了您在內存方面看到的好處或需求。但是，也許您可以分享您對 2024 年的想法，如果您展望明年，對業務影響最大的將是人工智能需求的角度、內存以及您認為需求出現的任何其他部分？我有一個後續行動。

So the cloud AI driving HBM and DDR5 is something that we expect to continue. It's still a minority of the DRAM shipments, and so there's significant room for it to grow. And there's also less oversupply in those parts than there is in the general DRAM market. The application of AI in mobile is going to drive the adoption of next-generation flash protocols and that will also drive performance tester sales into that segment. And then when you look in the SOC space, there's significant business, of course, for traditional Compute suppliers.

因此，我們預計雲 AI 驅動 HBM 和 DDR5 將會繼續下去。它仍然只佔 DRAM 出貨量的一小部分，因此還有很大的增長空間。而且這些部件的供應過剩情況也比一般 DRAM 市場要少。人工智能在移動領域的應用將推動下一代閃存協議的採用，也將推動該領域性能測試儀的銷售。當你觀察 SOC 領域時，你會發現，對於傳統計算供應商來說，當然有重要的業務。

But it is the primary driver for vertically integrated producers to be developing their chips. And so we're looking for growth in those VIPs in 2024 for both -- especially for cloud AI, hyperscaler type stuff, but also in terms of AI capabilities and vehicles, we expect that, that's going to be a driver of business from those nontraditional compute players.

但這是垂直整合生產商開發芯片的主要驅動力。因此，我們希望 2024 年這些 VIP 的增長——尤其是雲人工智能、超大規模器類型的東西，而且在人工智能功能和車輛方面，我們預計，這將成為這些業務的驅動力非傳統計算玩家。

Okay. And a follow-up, just going back to Vivek's question on Robotics profitability. I mean, we can see that based on what you've done in that segment, like it looks like breakeven point is more sort of around $360 million to $400 million annually in terms of revenue. Any thoughts in terms of what level of scale you need to get to your internal sort of targets in relation to profitability in that segment?

好的。接下來，回到維韋克關於機器人盈利能力的問題。我的意思是，我們可以看到，根據您在該細分市場所做的工作，就收入而言，盈虧平衡點似乎每年約為 3.6 億至 4 億美元。您是否有想過需要達到什麼規模才能實現與該細分市場盈利能力相關的內部目標？

And as you think about the sort of next few quarters, what does the turnaround in revenue look like, how much longer before the distribution channel hiccups are out of the way and then you're more dependent on the macro? Any views on that as well.

當您考慮未來幾個季度的情況時，收入的轉變會是什麼樣子，分銷渠道的問題需要多長時間才能解決，然後您會更加依賴宏觀經濟？對此還有什麼看法。

Sure. So let me take that backwards. So in terms of how long does it take, we expect that we're going to see significant improvement in Q4 of this year related both to the release of the UR20 and also that will have given us kind of 12 months of direct account coverage in some large accounts, which is on par with what our normal sales cycle is. So we're hoping to see some improvement in Q4 results over where we are now.

當然。讓我回顧一下。因此，就需要多長時間而言，我們預計今年第四季度我們將看到與 UR20 的發布相關的顯著改善，並且這將為我們提供 12 個月的直接帳戶覆蓋一些大客戶，這與我們正常的銷售週期相當。因此，我們希望看到第四季度的業績比現在有所改善。

In terms of the scale for profitability, I think it's probably best to talk about that in terms of where we are now and where we're heading to. So our target going into 2023 was that this group was going to yield 5% to 15% profit. And we've capitulated against that because we're not achieving the growth. That is our baseline in terms of our planning for next year is to return to that range. And by the time we are at the end of this midterm in the 2026 time frame, we expect that profitability range to eke up a couple of points from there.

就盈利規模而言，我認為最好從我們現在所處的位置和未來的發展方向來討論。因此，我們進入 2023 年的目標是該集團將產生 5% 至 15% 的利潤。我們已經屈服於這一點，因為我們沒有實現增長。這是我們明年計劃的基準，即回到該範圍。當我們在 2026 年中期結束時，我們預計盈利範圍將在此基礎上維持幾個百分點。

But the answer to when the profits that we make from Robotics is in the same range as our sort of mature Semi Test business. That really depends on the growth rate that we're seeing as we exit this midterm. So if we're on track and that business is growing 20% to 30% per year, then we're going to continue to drive it in that 10% to 20% profit range because we see a tremendous, a larger future value by doing that. If we're seeing that we've misunderstood the scale of this $500 billion potential end market then we will be changing gears and trying to reduce our OpEx in those groups to try and get into the same range as the rest of the company.

但答案是我們從機器人技術中獲得的利潤何時與我們成熟的半測試業務處於同一範圍內。這實際上取決於我們在中期退出時看到的增長率。因此，如果我們步入正軌並且業務每年增長 20% 到 30%，那麼我們將繼續在 10% 到 20% 的利潤範圍內推動業務增長，因為我們看到了巨大的、更大的未來價值這樣做。如果我們發現我們誤解了這個 5000 億美元的潛在終端市場的規模，那麼我們將改變策略並嘗試減少這些群體的運營支出，以嘗試進入與公司其他部門相同的範圍。

The rule of thumb that we're planning to is we want that group to operate at a rule of 40. And I would be delighted to have it delivering 30% growth and 10% profit exiting the midterm because that means that we'd be on track for having that unit at multiple billions of dollars over the long term.

我們計劃的經驗法則是，我們希望該集團按照 40 的規則運營。我很高興讓它在中期實現 30% 的增長和 10% 的利潤，因為這意味著我們將從長遠來看，該部門的價值將達到數十億美元。

Our next question is from Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

Greg, a question on the auto and industrial semiconductor test businesses. I guess the level that I was hoping you could share, roughly what percentage of SOC test revenue in calendar '23 will likely come from auto and industrial? And I guess, more importantly, how are you thinking about sustainability into '24? I think this has been one of the most extended upturns for your customers and for you guys as well. I think collectively, we appreciate the long-term secular drivers and you spoke to some of them in your script, but how are you thinking about the cycle into '24?

Greg，一個關於汽車和工業半導體測試業務的問題。我想我希望您能分享的水平是，23 日曆年的 SOC 測試收入中大概有多少百分比可能來自汽車和工業？我想，更重要的是，您如何看待 24 世紀的可持續發展？我認為這對於您的客戶和你們來說都是最持久的好轉之一。我認為總的來說，我們欣賞長期的世俗驅動因素，你在劇本中與其中一些人進行了交談，但你如何看待進入 24 世紀的周期？

Yes. So -- why don't I -- I'll take the second half of your question, and I'll pass it off to Sanjay for the sort of exact splits in terms of this year. In terms of sustainability, the key thing that we're looking at is the increasing attach rate of semiconductors in cars. So the rate of EVs as a percentage of the whole fleet is about a 20% CAGR. Like the portion of EVs is growing as a portion of the total car market. And there's twice as much semiconductors in an EV as there is in a standard internal combustion car.

是的。所以，我為什麼不呢，我將回答你問題的後半部分，然後將其轉交給 Sanjay，以獲取今年的確切劃分。在可持續性方面，我們關注的關鍵是半導體在汽車中的附著率不斷提高。因此，電動汽車佔整個車隊的比例複合年增長率約為 20%。就像電動汽車在整個汽車市場中所佔的份額正在增長一樣。電動汽車中的半導體數量是標準內燃機汽車的兩倍。

When you roll all that together, what we're seeing is that the dollar value of semiconductors in each car shipped is increasing at about a 12% rate. And that's a lot faster than the total semiconductor revenue CAGR, so there's this underlying driver in terms of an increasing attach rate, that's a pretty -- it's a fair amount larger than the variation in automotive demand.

當你把所有這些放在一起時，我們看到每輛汽車中所裝半導體的美元價值正在以大約 12% 的速度增長。這比半導體總收入的複合年增長率要快得多，因此就附加率的增加而言，這是一個潛在的驅動因素，這是一個相當大的數字，比汽車需求的變化要大得多。

So the automotive demand is going to continue to cycle and there certainly could be periods of overbuying and periods of absorption coming in the future. But the fact that the utilization is as high as it is right now and the end market fundamentals are this strong, we don't see that kind of softness.

因此，汽車需求將繼續循環，未來肯定會出現過度購買和吸收的時期。但事實上，目前的利用率如此之高，而且終端市場基本面如此強勁，我們沒有看到這種疲軟。

Coming into this year, we weren't as confident that it was going to sustain. Now I do separate industrial out from automotive and industrial is -- it doesn't show the same kind of fundamental strength. There are some parts of the industrial market that are booming around clean energy and in terms of the manufacturing infrastructure for EVs and batteries and stuff like that. That is certainly consuming semiconductors and it's helped driving significant growth of our business testing high-power discrete devices like GaN and silicon carbide. So we see strength in industrial. It's not as pervasive as the strength we see in automotive. Does that answer that part of your question?

進入今年，我們對這種情況能否持續沒有信心。現在我確實將工業與汽車區分開來——它並沒有表現出同樣的基本實力。工業市場的某些部分圍繞清潔能源以及電動汽車和電池等的製造基礎設施而蓬勃發展。這無疑會消耗半導體，並有助於推動我們測試 GaN 和碳化矽等高功率分立器件業務的顯著增長。所以我們看到了工業的實力。它並不像我們在汽車領域看到的那樣普遍。這能回答你的那部分問題嗎？

That's super helpful. And then, Sanjay, any color on how...

這非常有幫助。然後，Sanjay，任何顏色如何...

Sure. Let me take it from a market and then bring it down to revenue for contact. So we view -- in our view of the market size, we view that auto and industrial is about 25% of the SOC TAM this year. And relative to our revenue, we believe that of the SOC revenue that we have, it's about 35% of our revenue or just under roughly 20% of our revenue overall. That's how we see the year unfolding.

當然。讓我把它從市場中提取出來，然後將其歸結為聯繫收入。因此，我們認為，從市場規模來看，汽車和工業行業約佔今年 SOC TAM 的 25%。相對於我們的收入，我們認為我們的 SOC 收入約占我們收入的 35%，或者略低於我們總體收入的 20%。這就是我們對這一年的看法。

That's very helpful. And then as my follow-up, curious, Greg, how you're thinking about the memory test TAM into '24? I think the market has been very consistent over the past several years, somewhere in the $900 million to $1 billion range this year is, I guess, no exception.

這非常有幫助。然後，作為我的後續跟進者，格雷格，你好奇，你如何看待 24 世紀的記憶測試 TAM？我認為過去幾年市場一直非常穩定，今年在 9 億至 10 億美元的範圍內也不例外。

But given what you're seeing in HBM, given what we hope to be a recovery in '24 across DRAM and NAND, is there a possibility the market kind of breaks out and it's closer to $1.5 billion? Is that realistic? And I guess, importantly, how should we be thinking about your market share? I mean you spoke about your presence in HBM being higher than your average in DRAM, but if you can kind of provide a little bit more context there, that would be helpful.

但考慮到您在 HBM 中看到的情況，考慮到我們希望 DRAM 和 NAND 在 24 年實現復甦，市場是否有可能突破並接近 15 億美元？這現實嗎？我想，重要的是，我們應該如何考慮您的市場份額？我的意思是，您談到您在 HBM 中的表現高於 DRAM 中的平均水平，但如果您能提供更多背景信息，那將會有所幫助。

Yes. So the memory market is famously volatile, and it is remarkable that the TAMs have been as stable as they've been over the past couple of years. It's too early in the year right now for us to really peg a dollar value or even a range for next year. I am optimistic that there are more up forces than downforces against the memory TAM next year. So you have sort of a consistent pace of technology adoption that we think is going to continue. We think that HBM is going to continue to grow as a portion of the memory business.

是的。因此，內存市場的波動性是出了名的，而值得注意的是 TAM 卻像過去幾年一樣穩定。現在對於我們來說，真正確定明年的美元價值甚至範圍還為時過早。我樂觀地認為，明年內存 TAM 的上升力量將多於下降力量。因此，我們認為技術採用的步伐將會持續下去。我們認為 HBM 作為內存業務的一部分將繼續增長。

We think that transitions to new protocols are going to happen. And from what I've seen in the analysis of the memory makers, it appears that they're working through their inventory and that they may be in a position to start adding more capacity in terms of the mainstream of their business. So I think it will be up, but I'm not going to agree with the number that you put out there.

我們認為向新協議的過渡將會發生。從我對內存製造商的分析來看，他們似乎正在清理庫存，並且他們可能能夠開始在其主流業務方面增加更多產能。所以我認為它會上升，但我不會同意你在那裡提出的數字。

Our next question is from Brian Chin with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Brian Chin。

Maybe actually just to reclarify something, and this is sort of the math around industrial automation. I think to achieve the low end of your revised flat to down 10% forecast, I might have to put a very strong sequential growth in 4Q even beyond kind of normal seasonal. Is that correct? And if so, what are you factoring in, and does that include like [rev rec] on that backlog of UR20 that you have or something else?

也許實際上只是為了澄清一些事情，這是一種圍繞工業自動化的數學。我認為，要實現修訂後的持平預測的低端下降 10%，我可能必須在第四季度實現非常強勁的環比增長，甚至超出正常的季節性增長。那是對的嗎？如果是這樣，您要考慮什麼？這是否包括您積壓的 UR20 的 [rev rec] 或其他內容？

Yes. So I think the way I would model it is a normal seasonal Q4 plus the additional shipments of UR20. So we're expecting -- our Q4 is always our strongest quarter of the year. And we've been taking orders for the UR20 for nearly a year at this point. And we have a significant backlog that will support sort of a new layer or basically, it represents additional SAM that we're serving that we were unable to serve before.

是的。所以我認為我的建模方式是正常的第四季度季節性加上 UR20 的額外發貨量。因此，我們預計，第四季度始終是一年中最強勁的季度。到目前為止，我們已經接受 UR20 訂單近一年了。我們有大量的積壓工作，將支持某種新層，或者基本上，它代表了我們正在服務的額外 SAM，而我們之前無法提供服務。

Got it. And is that just sort of the release point is 4Q, why that's sort of backlog up to the end of the year?

知道了。這只是第四季度的發佈點嗎？為什麼會積壓到年底？

No. So we began shipments of the robot at the end of the second quarter. We will recognize that revenue plus continued shipments in the third quarter. But the volume per week is increasing as we go through Q4. So the bulk of the revenue is going to be in Q4.

不會。所以我們在第二季度末開始發貨機器人。我們將在第三季度確認收入加上持續出貨量。但隨著第四季度的到來，每週的數量正在增加。因此，大部分收入將來自第四季度。

Okay. Got it. And then just curious, on the other side of sort of this inventory correction, just curious, how are you thinking about sort of native demand? A lot of talk about complexity here of testing understandably. So when you think about native demand for smartphones, on the other side of this unit correction, do you kind of -- even though it's been a big driver of the test CAGR historically, in relation to auto, in relation to high-performance compute, maybe parts of the memory TAM as well, do you think SOC mobile potentially is a bit of a drag on the test CAGR over the midterm?

好的。知道了。然後只是好奇，在庫存調整的另一方面，只是好奇，您如何考慮本地需求？這裡有很多關於測試複雜性的討論，這是可以理解的。因此，當您考慮智能手機的本地需求時，在單位修正的另一方面，您是否會認為 - 儘管它一直是歷史上與汽車、高性能計算相關的測試複合年增長率的重要驅動因素，也許也是內存 TAM 的一部分，您認為 SOC 移動設備是否可能會拖累中期的測試複合年增長率？

So it's interesting. We had a conversation about this yesterday. And we expect a pretty robust recovery in mobile over time. But at this -- like while this has been going on, the amount of semiconductors and cars and the complexity of semiconductors and cars is really accelerating. And the investments around cloud computing and especially AI accelerated cloud computing are proceeding at a pretty good clip. So when you look back in time -- sort of a large portion of the whole SOC TAM was mobile.

所以這很有趣。昨天我們就此事進行了交談。我們預計隨著時間的推移，移動領域將出現相當強勁的複蘇。但在這個過程中，半導體和汽車的數量以及半導體和汽車的複雜性確實在加速增長。圍繞雲計算，尤其是人工智能加速雲計算的投資正在以相當好的速度進行。因此，當你回顧過去時，整個 SOC TAM 的很大一部分都是移動的。

And there were years for us where it was over 50% of our SOC sales went into that space. What we see looking forward is we think the whole market is going to grow at kind of 8% to 13% CAGR, that mobile will come back, but the rest of the market will have grown so that it's less concentrated in that area. So it's not like mobile is dead, but we think that there is a greater level of diversity across segments looking forward.

多年來，我們超過 50% 的 SOC 銷售額都進入了該領域。展望未來，我們認為整個市場將以 8% 至 13% 的複合年增長率增長，移動市場將會捲土重來，但市場的其餘部分將會增長，從而不會那麼集中在該領域。因此，移動設備並不是已經消亡，但我們認為，未來各個細分市場將呈現出更高水平的多樣性。

Our next question is from Sidney Ho with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Sidney Ho。

I just want to follow up with Brian's question. If you look at Q4 guidance of being flat quarter-over-quarter. You talked about the Robotics business up quite a bit in Q4, but what gets you to flat revenue in terms of what are the businesses are down taking? Any particular segment you would call out that may be below normal seasonality?

我只想跟進布萊恩的問題。如果你看看第四季度的指導，季度環比持平。您談到機器人業務在第四季度大幅增長，但是什麼讓您的收入與業務下降的情況持平？您會指出任何可能低於正常季節性的特定細分市場嗎？

Well, it's Sanjay here. Thanks for the question. I think it's just the timing within our Semi Test portfolio that you're seeing kind of the ebbs and flows. It's not uncommon for Q4 and some of our test businesses to have a lower Q4. It's nothing more than that.

嗯，桑傑來了。謝謝你的提問。我認為這只是我們的半測試投資組合中您看到的潮起潮落的時機。第四季度和我們的一些測試業務第四季度較低的情況並不罕見。僅此而已。

Okay. That's fair. If I -- let me switch over to talk about the compute SOC TAM. It sounds like that is definitely stronger. You raised the overall TAM, but maybe within the compute, it's now $1.3 billion instead of $1 billion that you talked about a quarter ago. Within that number, how should we think about the vertically integrated producers today and how that could look like next year? And maybe what kind of market share are you expecting within the VIP group that you mentioned?

好的。這還算公平。如果我——讓我轉而談論計算 SOC TAM。聽起來確實更強了。您提高了總體 TAM，但也許在計算範圍內，它現在是 13 億美元，而不是您四分之一前談到的 10 億美元。在這個數字中，我們應該如何看待今天的垂直整合生產商以及明年會是什麼樣子？也許您期望在您提到的 VIP 群體中獲得什麼樣的市場份額？

So one of the things that we have highlighted about VIPs is because there are a relatively small number of players and the parts that they're producing are quite complex that it's going to be spotty that there will be capacity buys that happen for particular devices, and they will -- it's all 1 customer will pop and then a different customer will pop. So we think that year-on-year from 2022 to 2023, the VIP TAM is going to be down a bit. Our share, like last year, we had more than $100 million of revenue in VIPs. This year, it's probably between $50 million and $100 million.

因此，我們強調的有關 VIP 的一件事是，因為玩家數量相對較少，而且他們生產的零件非常複雜，因此針對特定設備進行的容量購買將會不穩定，他們會——都是 1 個客戶出現，然後另一個客戶出現。因此，我們認為從 2022 年到 2023 年，VIP TAM 將會略有下降。與去年一樣，我們的 VIP 收入超過 1 億美元。今年，這個數字可能在 5000 萬到 1 億美元之間。

So I don't know exactly what it will be in 2024. But by the time we get out to 2026, we think that, that TAM is probably going to be somewhere north of $500 million. So it's going to be a significant chunk of the overall SOC TAM by the time we exit this midterm.

所以我不知道 2024 年具體會是多少。但到 2026 年，我們認為 TAM 可能會超過 5 億美元。因此，當我們中期退出時，它將成為整個 SOC TAM 的重要組成部分。

Our next question is from Krish Sankar with TD Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Krish Sankar 和 TD Cowen。

Two of them, Greg, I'm just curious on the DDR5 in high-bandwidth memory test. Is it skewed more towards wafer test or final test? And what is your market share in either of those? And then I have a follow-up.

其中兩位，Greg，我只是對高帶寬內存測試中的 DDR5 感到好奇。它更傾向於晶圓測試還是最終測試？你們在這兩個領域的市場份額是多少？然後我有一個後續行動。

So the fun thing about HBM is that it doesn't go into a package. So it's essentially all wafer test. There are 2 phases of that wafer test. So there's a test of the memory itself, and then there is an interface performance test, which is done at the wafer level. And once all of that test takes place and the HBM has been built up, then it gets shipped off to be incorporated into a chiplet-based design for the final product. The TAM that we're talking about for HBM test is probably roughly split about half and half between the core testing and the performance testing.

因此，HBM 的有趣之處在於它不包含在一個包中。所以本質上都是晶圓測試。該晶圓測試分為兩個階段。因此，需要對存儲器本身進行測試，然後進行接口性能測試，這是在晶圓級完成的。一旦完成所有測試並且 HBM 已構建完成，它就會被運走並納入最終產品的基於小芯片的設計中。我們談論的 HBM 測試 TAM 可能大致分為核心測試和性能測試。

Got it. Very helpful. And then just to follow up on the VIP. You said it's going to be $50 million to $100 million this year compared to almost over $100 million last year. Is that basically skewed towards 1 customer or 1 auto customer for you? Or is it more diversified?

知道了。很有幫助。然後就是跟進 VIP。您說今年的金額將達到 5000 萬至 1 億美元，而去年則幾乎超過 1 億美元。對您來說，這基本上是偏向 1 個客戶還是 1 個汽車客戶？還是更加多元化？

No, it's much, much more diverse. So last year, like what you could probably think about is that the broad diversity of customers from last year to this year is actually increasing. But last year, on top of that broad-based, a single customer did pop for a lot of capacity. So I think that's -- so I guess the answer to your question is yes and no.

不，它更加多樣化。所以去年，你可能會想到的是，從去年到今年，客戶的廣泛多樣性實際上正在增​​加。但去年，除了基礎廣泛之外，一個客戶確實獲得了大量容量。所以我認為——所以我想你的問題的答案是肯定和否定。

Our next question is from Atif Malik with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的阿提夫·馬利克 (Atif Malik)。

Greg, I have a question on your Robotics business. You spoke about 2 challenges that I not able to build OEM channels fast enough and then macro environment. And I'm just trying to understand how much of this is on you guys and how much of it is on macro? Is it more like 60% on you guys for not building the channel or for these higher weight robot and 40% macro? If you can help us out on that split.

格雷格，我有一個關於您的機器人業務的問題。您談到了我無法足夠快地建立 OEM 渠道和宏觀環境的兩個挑戰。我只是想了解這其中有多少是你們的責任，又有多少是宏觀的？是因為你們沒有建立渠道而承擔 60% 的責任，還是因為這些重量更大的機器人和 40% 的宏觀責任？如果你能幫助我們解決這個問題。

So it's a tough split to make because, if you compare us to peers in industrial automation, we have a significantly different lead time profile than most industrial automation players. So we're working with kind of 5 lead times. And for industrial robots and for standard automation, those lead times are out kind of 2 quarters. So we tend to compare what our business is doing to what their businesses are doing, looking at order rates. And so if you look at order rates for, say, UR, we're down roughly 10% year-on-year, so first half of '22 to the first half of '23.

因此，這是一個艱難的劃分，因為如果你將我們與工業自動化領域的同行進行比較，我們的交貨時間概況與大多數工業自動化參與者有顯著不同。所以我們的交貨時間大約是 5 個。對於工業機器人和標準自動化來說，交貨時間大約是兩個季度。因此，我們傾向於將我們的業務與他們的業務進行比較，查看訂單率。因此，如果你看看 UR 的訂單率，我們同比下降了大約 10%，所以從 22 年上半年到 23 年上半年。

If you look at some of our industrial robotics peers, they're down 20% or greater over that same comparison period. So there's definitely a broad economic headwinds that we're facing. But because we're coming into this space as a disruptor, we would expect to have significantly higher growth than the main players. And right now, we're not happy with the growth that we're seeing.

如果你看看我們的一些工業機器人同行，就會發現它們在同一比較時期下降了 20% 或更多。因此，我們肯定面臨著廣泛的經濟阻力。但由於我們是作為顛覆者進入這個領域，因此我們預計會有比主要參與者更高的增長。目前，我們對所看到的增長並不滿意。

We also think that we should have greater immunity to these cycles because we're solving a problem that these manufacturers have, whether it's a good business or a bad business. And so I think the -- what you're seeing is our current distribution is quite vulnerable to macroeconomic cycles and the distribution setup that we're moving towards is going to be more suited to deliver consistent results.

我們還認為，我們應該對這些週期有更大的免疫力，因為我們正在解決這些製造商所面臨的問題，無論是好生意還是壞生意。因此，我認為，您所看到的是，我們當前的分配非常容易受到宏觀經濟周期的影響，而我們正在採取的分配設置將更適合提供一致的結果。

So I would say that it's -- honestly, I think it's mostly macroeconomic that the macroeconomic headwinds are particularly bad given the types of customers that we serve and the way that we serve them. The build-out of OEM and large account coverage is something that's going to give us a better immunity in future headwinds.

所以我想說，老實說，我認為考慮到我們服務的客戶類型以及我們為他們服務的方式，宏觀經濟的逆風特別糟糕，這主要是宏觀經濟的問題。 OEM 的擴展和大客戶覆蓋範圍將使我們在未來的不利因素中具有更好的免疫力。

Okay. And operator, we are out of time. So everyone, thank you for joining us today. And those in the queue, I'll follow up shortly after this call, and we look forward to talking with you in the days and weeks ahead. Bye-bye.

好的。接線員，我們沒時間了。謝謝大家今天加入我們。對於那些排隊的人，我將在這次通話後不久進行跟進，我們期待在未來的幾天和幾週內與您交談。再見。

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

今天的會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。