使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon, and welcome to the Teradyne third quarter 2025 earnings conference call.
女士們、先生們,下午好,歡迎參加泰瑞達公司2025年第三季財報電話會議。
(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's call is being recorded.
(操作員說明)提醒您,今天的通話將會被錄音。
I would now like to turn the call over to Amy McAndrews, VP of Corporate Relations for Teradyne. Please go ahead.
現在我將把電話交給泰瑞達公司企業關係副總裁艾米‧麥克安德魯斯。請繼續。
Amy McAndrews - Vice President - Corporate Relations
Amy McAndrews - Vice President - Corporate Relations
Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our discussion of Teradyne's most recent financial results. I'm joined this morning by our CEO, Greg Smith; and our CFO, Sanjay Mehta. Following our opening remarks, we'll provide details of our performance for the third quarter of 2025 and our outlook for the fourth quarter of 2025. The press release containing our third quarter results was issued last evening.
謝謝接線生。各位早安,歡迎來到我們對泰瑞達最新財務表現的討論。今天早上和我一起的有我們的執行長格雷格·史密斯和財務長桑傑·梅塔。在開場白之後,我們將詳細介紹 2025 年第三季的業績以及 2025 年第四季的展望。昨晚我們發布了包含第三季業績的新聞稿。
The slides as well as a copy of this earnings script are available on the Investor page of the Teradyne website. Replays of this call will be available via the same page after the call ends.
幻燈片以及本次財報演講稿的副本可在泰瑞達公司網站的投資者頁面上找到。本次通話結束後,您可以透過同一頁面收聽回放。
The matters that we discuss today will include forward-looking statements that involve risks that could cause Teradyne's results to differ materially from management's current expectations. We caution listeners not to place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements included in this presentation.
我們今天討論的事項將包括前瞻性陳述,這些陳述涉及可能導致泰瑞達公司業績與管理層當前預期存在重大差異的風險。我們提醒聽眾不要過度依賴本次演講中包含的任何前瞻性陳述。
We encourage you to review the Safe Harbor statement contained in the slides accompanying this presentation as well as the risk factors described in our annual report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2024, on file with the SEC.
我們建議您查看本簡報隨附幻燈片中包含的「安全港」聲明,以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日的財政年度的 10-K 表格年度報告中描述的風險因素。
Additionally, these forward-looking statements are made only as of today, and we do not undertake any obligation to update forward-looking statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances, except to the extent required by law.
此外,這些前瞻性聲明僅代表截至今日的觀點,除法律要求外,我們不承擔任何更新前瞻性聲明以反映後續事件或情況的義務。
During today's call, we will refer to non-GAAP financial measures. We have posted additional information concerning these non-GAAP financial measures, including reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures were available on the Investor page of our website.
在今天的電話會議中,我們將提及非GAAP財務指標。我們已在網站的投資者頁面上發布了有關這些非GAAP財務指標的更多信息,包括與最直接可比較的GAAP財務指標的調節表。
Looking ahead between now and our next earnings call, Teradyne expects to participate in the UBS Technology Investor Conference. Our quiet period will begin at the close of business on December 24, 2025. Following Greg and Sanjay's comments this morning, we'll open up the call for questions.
展望未來,從現在到我們下次財報電話會議期間,泰瑞達預計將參加瑞銀科技投資者大會。我們的靜默期將於 2025 年 12 月 24 日營業結束時開始。繼格雷格和桑傑今天早上的演講之後,我們將開放提問環節。
This call is scheduled for one hour.
本次通話預計持續一小時。
Greg?
格雷格?
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks, Amy. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. Today, I'll discuss our third quarter results, talk a bit about what is driving the business in Q4 and provide a general update on conditions across our businesses. Sanjay will then provide more detail on our third quarter results and fourth quarter guidance.
謝謝你,艾米。各位早安,感謝各位的收看。今天,我將討論我們第三季的業績,談談第四季度業務發展的驅動因素,並對我們各項業務的整體情況進行更新。接下來,Sanjay 將詳細介紹我們第三季的業績和第四季的業績展望。
As you saw in the earnings release, we grew sequential revenue 18% and non-GAAP EPS by 49% in the third quarter. This growth was driven by AI demand in semiconductor tests. Our other test businesses delivered on plan in the quarter.
正如您在收益報告中看到的那樣,我們第三季度的收入環比增長了 18%,非 GAAP 每股收益增長了 49%。這一增長是由半導體測試領域對人工智慧的需求所推動的。本季我們其他測試業務均按計劃完成。
In Robotics, we continue a slow crawl up from our Q1 revenue trough in a challenging environment. The huge investments in cloud AI build-out drove our Q3 performance to the high end of our guidance range as our customers ramped production of a wide range of AI accelerator, networking, memory and power devices.
在機器人領域,儘管面臨充滿挑戰的環境,我們仍從第一季的營收低谷緩慢復甦。由於客戶加大了對各種人工智慧加速器、網路、記憶體和電源設備的生產力度,我們在雲端人工智慧建置方面的大量投資推動我們第三季的業績達到了預期範圍的高端。
An example of this AI strength is in compute, where our view of the second half of 2025 revenue is more than 50% higher than our expectations just three months ago. Some of this increase comes from us responding to customer pulling requests and some is demand increases. As design, process and packaging technologies for AI compute rapidly advanced, we expect that our growth will continue.
人工智慧在運算領域的實力就體現在在這裡,我們對 2025 年下半年收入的預期比三個月前的預期高出 50% 以上。部分成長來自我們對客戶需求的回應,部分成長來自市場需求的成長。隨著人工智慧運算的設計、製程和封裝技術的快速發展,我們預計我們的成長動能將持續下去。
Our UltraFLEXplus system has been architected from the ground up for high-performance processors and networking devices, which have demanding power, pin count and test data requirements. As AI devices become more complex, the UltraFLEXplus architectural advantages become more valuable to potential customers by enabling fast test development times and high-efficiency volume production.
我們的 UltraFLEXplus 系統從設計之初就面向高效能處理器和網路設備,這些設備對功耗、引腳數量和測試資料都有著很高的要求。隨著人工智慧設備變得越來越複雜,UltraFLEXplus 架構優勢能夠實現快速的測試開發時間和高效的大量生產,對潛在客戶來說變得更有價值。
Our focused investment in R&D is also yielding new differentiated capabilities for compute tests, some of which have been already been announced in Q3. In memory, our Q3 memory test sales more than doubled from Q2 to $128 million, with the majority of those shipments supporting AI applications.
我們對研發的重點投入也為運算測試帶來了新的差異化能力,其中一些能力已在第三季公佈。在記憶體方面,我們第三季的記憶體測試銷售額比第二季翻了一番多,達到 1.28 億美元,其中大部分出貨量用於支援人工智慧應用。
In Q3, 75% of our memory revenue was driven by DRAM, nearly all of it from final test of DRAM and HBM performance test. 25% of revenue was from flash mainly for cloud SSD, another segment being driven by AI data centers.
第三季度,我們75%的記憶體收入來自DRAM,幾乎全部來自DRAM和HBM效能測試的最終測試。 25%的收入來自快閃記憶體,主要用於雲端SSD,而人工智慧資料中心是另一個主要驅動力。
Our Magnum 7H product is differentiated in HBM performance test because it is a multi-generational product. It can cover the test needs of HBM3E and HBM4, and it provides upgrade headroom for HBM4E and HBM5. The Magnum 7H also supports HBM singulated stack performance test. In Q2, we won a design in for this insertion. And in Q3, we began volume shipments.
我們的 Magnum 7H 產品在 HBM 性能測試中脫穎而出,因為它是一款多代產品。它可以滿足 HBM3E 和 HBM4 的測試需求,並為 HBM4E 和 HBM5 提供升級空間。Magnum 7H 也支援 HBM 單堆效能測試。第二季度,我們贏得了該插件的設計訂單。第三季度,我們開始大量出貨。
So at this point, Teradyne participates in all major test insertions for HBM, memory die wafer sort, post stack wafer test and singulated stack test. Our results in memory test this year are especially satisfying in light of the composition and size of the memory TAM for 2025.
因此,目前泰瑞達參與了 HBM、記憶體晶片晶圓分選、堆疊後晶圓測試和單晶堆疊測試的所有主要測試插入工作。考慮到 2025 年記憶體市場規模的組成和大小,我們今年的記憶體測試結果尤其令人滿意。
Our best guess is that the total memory TAM for 2025 will be down low double digits, and the weakest part of this market is flash, our traditional strongest segment. Despite this, we expect our memory revenue will sustain at 2024 levels.
我們估計,到 2025 年,記憶體市場總規模 (TAM) 將下降到兩位數以下,而該市場中最薄弱的部分是快閃記憶體,這是我們傳統上最強大的細分市場。儘管如此,我們預計到 2024 年,我們的記憶體業務收入將保持在目前的水平。
AI-driven applications for power ICs were a bright spot in the auto industrial market segment. The Eagle Test platform has a leading position in the test of high-performance power conversion devices for data center applications.
人工智慧驅動的功率積體電路應用是汽車工業市場領域的一大亮點。Eagle 測試平台在資料中心應用高效能電源轉換元件的測試領域處於領先地位。
Volumes of these devices are forecast to grow over 50% between now and 2027. We expect the demand for VIP compute and networking to continue to grow significantly, and we have been investing in R&D, applications, sales, support and manufacturing capacity for this expansion. This includes investments to win new VIP and merchant GPU customers.
預計到 2027 年,這些設備的銷量將成長 50% 以上。我們預計對 VIP 運算和網路的需求將繼續大幅成長,為此,我們一直在研發、應用、銷售、支援和製造能力方面進行投資。這包括為贏得新的VIP和商家GPU客戶而進行的投資。
We're making good progress on new design and opportunities and are cautiously optimistic about our potential success.
我們在新設計和新機會方面取得了良好進展,並對可能的成功持謹慎樂觀態度。
But I would like to make it clear that our Q3 results and our Q4 guidance do not include any revenue from these types of new opportunities. For the deployed fleet of UltraFLEX and UltraFLEXplus testers, we see higher utilization and fewer system upgrades than in past quarters, which we believe means that customers are exhausting their inventory of underutilized systems. As a result, we now expect a more direct connection between inflection in end market demand and new system sales.
但我想明確指出,我們第三季的業績和第四季的業績預期均不包括來自這些新機會的任何收入。對於已部署的 UltraFLEX 和 UltraFLEXplus 測試儀,我們發現其利用率比過去幾季更高,系統升級次數更少,我們認為這意味著客戶正在耗盡其未充分利用的系統庫存。因此,我們現在預期終端市場需求的變化與新系統銷售之間有更直接的連結。
Looking beyond AI and Semi Test, conditions in mobile and auto industrial remained somewhat weak. Now in our Integrated Systems division, our Q3 shipments were above plan as SLT customers accelerated deliveries for mobile processors and compute applications.
除了人工智慧和半導體測試領域之外,行動和汽車產業的狀況仍然有些疲軟。現在,在我們的整合系統部門,由於 SLT 客戶加快了行動處理器和運算應用的交付,我們第三季的出貨量超過了計畫。
We also saw increases in orders for both HDD and SLT systems. Now recall, lead times are generally measured in quarters for this business, so most of that order strength will translate into revenue in 2026 and beyond.
我們也看到硬碟 (HDD) 和 SLT 系統的訂單量均有所增加。要知道,該行業的交貨週期通常以季度為單位來衡量,因此大部分訂單量將在 2026 年及以後轉化為收入。
In Robotics, we are growing slowly from our trough quarter in Q1 2025. If you go down one level of detail, we continue to see persistent weakness in our core indirect distribution channel as we expand our large customer and OEM channels.
在機器人領域,我們正在從 2025 年第一季的低谷緩慢復甦。如果再深入一層細節,我們會發現,隨著我們拓展大客戶和 OEM 管道,我們的核心間接分銷管道仍然存在持續的疲軟。
An important element of our robotics strategy is to establish UR cobots as the preferred platform for AI-driven work cell applications and to deliver superior performance for our AMRs by leveraging AI features. In the third quarter, over 8% of robotics sales were for AI-related products, up from 6% in Q2.
我們機器人策略的一個重要組成部分是將 UR 協作機器人確立為人工智慧驅動的工作單元應用的首選平台,並透過利用人工智慧功能為我們的 AMR 提供卓越的性能。第三季度,機器人銷售額中超過 8% 來自人工智慧相關產品,高於第二季的 6%。
Another element of our robotics strategy is to deliver value-added service to our installed base of over 100,000 robots. Service represented 14% of sales in Q3, up from 12% in Q2. As we noted in our July call, our Semi Test business has evolved to where the largest demand driver is AI data center investments rather than consumer end markets.
我們機器人策略的另一個要素是為我們已安裝的超過 10 萬台機器人提供加值服務。服務收入佔第三季銷售額的 14%,高於第二季的 12%。正如我們在 7 月的電話會議中所提到的,我們的半導體測試業務已經發展到以人工智慧資料中心投資而非消費終端市場為最大需求驅動因素的階段。
We have aligned our R&D and go-to-market investments to capture the tremendous opportunities in test driven by this AI related demand. Our investments are focused on extending our product performance advantages with innovative R&D, while also expanding our engineering teams to help customers develop and ramp production of these fantastically complex devices on Teradyne platforms.
我們已調整研發和市場推廣的投資,以抓住人工智慧相關需求所帶來的測試驅動型市場的巨大機會。我們的投資重點在於透過創新研發來擴展我們的產品性能優勢,同時擴大我們的工程團隊,以幫助客戶在泰瑞達平台上開發和擴大這些極其複雜的設備的生產規模。
Sanjay will describe how these investments translate into OpEx, but as we're seeing, the returns are well worth the investment.
Sanjay 將介紹這些投資如何轉化為營運支出,但正如我們所看到的,這些投資的回報是值得的。
Looking at Q4, we expect AI-related demand for compute, networking and memory to be the primary engine of our growth, which reflects both industry trends and the result of our investments to align with those trends.
展望第四季度,我們預期與人工智慧相關的運算、網路和記憶體需求將成為我們成長的主要動力,這不僅反映了產業趨勢,也反映了我們為順應這些趨勢而進行的投資成果。
Looking to the future, the long-term themes that we've highlighted in the past, AI, verticalization and electrification remain firmly intact. As we enter 2026, we expect AI and verticalization will be the primary growth drivers. We've said before that the AI market is both highly concentrated and highly dynamic. The timing of any one project can affect the delivery schedule for hundreds of testers.
展望未來,我們過去強調的長期主題——人工智慧、垂直化和電氣化——仍然穩固不變。展望 2026 年,我們預期人工智慧和垂直化將成為主要的成長驅動力。我們之前說過,人工智慧市場既高度集中又高度動態。任何一個專案的進度安排都可能影響數百名測試人員的交付計畫。
This can swing quarterly results significantly.
這可能會導致季度業績出現顯著波動。
So with that understanding, let me offer a few high-level comments about how we're looking at 2026. At the company level, 2026 looks stronger today than it did six months ago, and all indications suggest solid growth from 2025.
基於以上理解,讓我對我們如何看待 2026 年提出一些高層次的看法。從公司層面來看,2026 年的前景比六個月前更加樂觀,所有跡像都表明,從 2025 年開始將實現穩健成長。
We anticipate that business conditions for mobile, auto industrial and robotics will improve, but the timing and the intensity of that recovery is uncertain. But the real story in 2026 is AI and the investments that we have made to develop differentiated solutions in that space will drive our growth plan. I'd like to share a few specific examples.
我們預計移動、汽車工業和機器人產業的商業環境將會改善,但復甦的時機和強度尚不確定。但 2026 年的真正故事是人工智慧,我們為開發該領域差異化解決方案所做的投資將推動我們的成長計畫。我想分享幾個具體的例子。
Massive investments in building data centers are translating into strong demand for UltraFLEXplus in VIP, compute, merchant compute and networking. In the memory market, AI will drive growth in HBM, DRAM and flash for SSD applications served by Magnum.
對資料中心建設的大量投資正在轉化為對 VIP、運算、商業運算和網路領域 UltraFLEXplus 的強勁需求。在記憶體市場,人工智慧將推動 HBM、DRAM 和快閃記憶體的成長,為 Magnum 提供的 SSD 應用服務。
Accelerated big growth in HDD is driving the demand for more HDD test. The deployment of AI-capable processors for mobile, client computing and cloud AI is driving the demand for more system-level test. We plan to give you a more detailed view as part of our model update in the January call.
硬碟機 (HDD) 的快速成長帶動了對更多 HDD 測試的需求。行動、客戶端運算和雲端人工智慧領域人工智慧處理器的部署,推動了對更多系統級測試的需求。我們計劃在1月份的電話會議上,作為模型更新的一部分,向您提供更詳細的說明。
Now before I hand the call over to Sanjay, I would like to say a few words about the CFO transition that we announced last night. Michelle Turner will be our Chief Financial Officer effective November 3, 2025. She brings 30 years of financial and strategic leadership experience in the technology and manufacturing sectors, and she has a strong track record of driving growth, disciplined capital allocation and operational efficiency. She is looking forward to getting to know all of you in the upcoming quarter. I'm excited to welcome Michelle to the Teradyne team.
在將電話交給桑傑之前,我想先就我們昨晚宣布的財務長人事變動談幾句。Michelle Turner 將於 2025 年 11 月 3 日起擔任我們的財務長。她在科技和製造業領域擁有 30 年的財務和策略領導經驗,並且在推動成長、嚴格的資本配置和營運效率方面有著良好的業績記錄。她期待在接下來的一個季度認識大家。我很高興歡迎米歇爾加入泰瑞達團隊。
Now Sanjay has been Teradyne's CFO since 2019, and he has offered to stay on as an executive adviser to operations as we expand capacity in 2026. I want to thank Sanjay for his excellent leadership and contributions over the past six years, and I'm grateful that we will have the benefit of this guidance.
自 2019 年以來,Sanjay 一直擔任 Teradyne 的首席財務官,並且他已表示願意繼續擔任營運方面的執行顧問,以幫助我們於 2026 年擴大產能。我要感謝桑傑在過去六年展現的卓越領導能力和所做的貢獻,我很感激我們能夠受益於他的指導。
With that, I'll turn the call over to Sanjay.
接下來,我會把電話交給桑傑。
Sanjay Mehta - Executive Advisor
Sanjay Mehta - Executive Advisor
Thank you, Greg. Good morning, everyone. Today, I'll cover the financial summary of Q3 and provide our Q4 outlook. Now to Q3. Third quarter sales were $769 million and non-GAAP EPS was $0.85, both near the high end of our guidance ranges.
謝謝你,格雷格。各位早安。今天,我將概述第三季的財務狀況,並展望第四季。現在進入第三季。第三季銷售額為 7.69 億美元,非 GAAP 每股盈餘為 0.85 美元,兩者都接近我們預期範圍的上限。
Non-GAAP gross margin was 58.5%, above our guidance range due to favorable mix. Non-GAAP operating expenses were $293 million, up sequentially and year-over-year on higher R&D, sales and marketing investments tied to AI as well as increases in our variable compensation. Non-GAAP operating profit was 20.4%.
由於產品組合有利,非GAAP毛利率為58.5%,高於我們的預期範圍。非GAAP營運費用為2.93億美元,環比和年比均有所成長,主要原因是與人工智慧相關的研發、銷售和行銷投資增加,以及可變薪酬的增加。非GAAP營業利益率為20.4%。
Turning to our revenue breakdown in Q3. Semi Test revenue for the quarter was $606 million, with SoC revenue contributing $440 million, which was up 11% sequentially and 12% year-over-year. Memory revenue was $128 million, up 110% sequentially and down 15% year-over-year. Strength in SoC was driven by AI compute and AI-related power test. Memory revenue more than doubled from Q2 on HBM and AI-related LPDDR demand.
接下來我們來看第三季的營收細節。本季半導體測試營收為 6.06 億美元,其中 SoC 營收貢獻了 4.4 億美元,季增 11%,年增 12%。記憶體營收為 1.28 億美元,季增 110%,年減 15%。SoC 效能的提升主要得益於 AI 運算和 AI 相關功耗測試。受 HBM 和 AI 相關 LPDDR 需求的推動,記憶體收入較第二季增加了一倍以上。
IST revenue was $38 million, up 9% sequentially, 46% year-over-year driven by strength in SLT shipments. In product test, Q3 revenue was $88 million, up 4% sequentially and 10% year-over-year, driven by growth in defense and aerospace.
IST 營收為 3,800 萬美元,較上季成長 9%,較去年同期成長 46%,主要得益於 SLT 出貨量的強勁成長。在產品測試方面,第三季營收為 8,800 萬美元,季增 4%,年增 10%,主要得益於國防和航空航太領域的成長。
Now to Robotics. Revenue was $75 million, flat quarter-on-quarter and down year-over-year. In the quarter, UR contributed $62 million and MiR contributed $13 million of revenue. As we noted in July, volume shipments to our large e-commerce customers are not expected to have a material impact on robotics revenue in 2025.
接下來是機器人技術。營收為 7,500 萬美元,與上一季持平,年減。本季度,UR貢獻了6,200萬美元的收入,MiR貢獻了1,300萬美元的收入。正如我們在 7 月指出的那樣,預計到 2025 年,向大型電子商務客戶批量發貨不會對機器人業務收入產生實質影響。
Some other financial information in Q3. We had two customers that directly or indirectly, which drove more than 10% of our revenue in the third quarter. The tax rate, excluding discrete items for the quarter was 16% on a GAAP and non-GAAP basis. Our free cash flow was $2 million. Our net income was offset by our net working capital increases tied to accounts receivable and inventory, which reduced our free cash flow.
第三季其他一些財務資訊。我們有兩家客戶直接或間接地為我們第三季帶來了超過 10% 的收入。本季不計特殊項目稅率,以美國通用會計準則和非美國通用會計準則計算為 16%。我們的自由現金流為200萬美元。我們的淨收入被應收帳款和存貨相關的淨營運資本增加所抵消,這減少了我們的自由現金流。
Receivables growth was tied to increased sales, which were weighted to the second half of the quarter. Inventory growth was tied to the ramp in compute and memory driven by upcoming AI demand.
應收帳款成長與銷售額成長密切相關,而銷售額成長主要集中在下半季。庫存成長與即將到來的人工智慧需求推動的運算和記憶體需求激增有關。
CapEx of $47 million was reasonably consistent with Q2. We repurchased [$244 million] of shares in the quarter and paid $19 million in dividends. Through the end of the third quarter, we've returned $575 million or approximately 2.5 times our free cash flow through dividends and buybacks to shareholders during the year. We ended the quarter with $427 million in cash and marketable securities.
4700萬美元的資本支出與第二季基本持平。本季我們回購了價值 2.44 億美元的股票,並支付了 1,900 萬美元的股利。截至第三季末,我們透過股利和股票回購,已向股東返還了 5.75 億美元,約合我們本年度自由現金流的 2.5 倍。本季末,我們持有現金和有價證券4.27億美元。
Now a little more detail on OpEx and our balance sheet strategy to help you with your modeling. In the second half of 2025, we're continuing to lean into R&D and go-to-market investments for AI opportunities that we expect will drive revenue in 2026 and beyond.
現在,我將更詳細地介紹營運支出和我們的資產負債表策略,以幫助您進行建模。2025 年下半年,我們將繼續增加對人工智慧機會的研發和市場推廣投資,我們預計這些機會將在 2026 年及以後推動營收成長。
OpEx in the second half of 2025 is also increasing tied to our variable compensation linked to increasing financial performance. At the midpoint of our Q4 guidance, we'll have full year revenue growth of 9% and OpEx growth of 7%. Long term, we target OpEx growth at approximately half the rate of our revenue growth.
2025 年下半年的營運支出也將增加,這與我們根據財務績效成長而調整的浮動薪酬有關。根據我們第四季業績指引的中位數,全年營收成長將達到 9%,營運支出成長將達到 7%。從長遠來看,我們的目標是使營運支出成長速度約為收入成長速度的一半。
In 2026 and longer term, as AI revenue blossomed, we expect to meet our OpEx target.
從長遠來看,隨著人工智慧收入的蓬勃發展,我們預計在 2026 年及以後將實現我們的營運支出目標。
Regarding the balance sheet, we expect to keep our cash and marketable securities at roughly $400 million while also continuing our balanced capital allocation strategy. In 2025, we saw an opportunity to accelerate buybacks in the short term to further enable shareholder value. At the operational level, we expect to exercise our credit lines more frequently as we did in Q3 and expect to in Q4.
關於資產負債表,我們預計將現金及有價證券維持在約 4 億美元,同時繼續執行均衡的資本配置策略。2025年,我們看到了一個機會,可以在短期內加速股票回購,進一步提升股東價值。在營運層面,我們預計將像第三季一樣更頻繁地行使信貸額度,並預期第四季也將如此。
From a modeling perspective, this means the interest and other line of the P&L will reflect higher interest expense. You should expect to see a couple of million dollars of net interest expense per quarter while we utilize our revolver.
從建模的角度來看,這意味著損益表中的利息和其他項目將反映出更高的利息支出。在我們利用循環信貸額度期間,預計每季淨利息支出將達到數百萬美元。
Now turning to our outlook for Q4. Before discussing the details of Q4 guidance, I'd like to remind you of some of the commentary from our July call. Specifically, we noted that we had large projects expected to ramp, which straddled Q3, Q4 or Q4, Q1.
現在來談談我們對第四季的展望。在討論第四季業績指引的細節之前,我想提醒大家回顧一下我們在7月電話會議上的一些評論。具體來說,我們注意到我們有一些大型專案預計將在第三季、第四季或第四季、第一季之間啟動。
As we move through the second half of 2025, we saw projects accelerate into Q3 and are now seeing projects accelerate into Q4. These projects are AI-driven.
隨著我們進入 2025 年下半年,我們看到專案在第三季加速推進,現在又看到專案在第四季度加速推進。這些項目都是由人工智慧驅動的。
In Q3, we were able to meet early ramp demands. In Q4, we are seeing demand ramp significantly. We continue to expedite our supply chain, and we are accelerating production capacity growth at factories in multiple geographies to meet the demand.
第三季度,我們能夠滿足早期產能爬坡的需求。第四季度,我們看到需求顯著成長。我們將持續加速供應鏈運轉,並加速提升多個地區工廠的產能,以滿足市場需求。
Now the details. Q4 sales are expected to be between $920 million and $1 billion. Fourth quarter gross margins are estimated at 57% to 58%. This includes some onetime supply costs in the quarter to meet accelerated demand.
現在來說說細節。預計第四季銷售額將在9.2億美元至10億美元之間。預計第四季毛利率為 57% 至 58%。這包括本季為滿足激增的需求而產生的一次性供應成本。
Turning to OpEx. Q4 OpEx is expected to run at 31% to 33% of fourth quarter sales. The non-GAAP operating profit rate at the midpoint of our fourth quarter guidance is 25.5%. The Q4 GAAP and non-GAAP tax rate is expected to be 14.5%. Q4 non-GAAP EPS is expected to be in the range of $1.20 to $1.46 on 157 million diluted shares. GAAP EPS is expected to be in the range of $1.12 to $1.39.
轉向營運支出。預計第四季營運支出將佔第四季銷售額的 31% 至 33%。我們第四季業績指引中點的非GAAP營業利益率為25.5%。預計第四季 GAAP 和非 GAAP 稅率為 14.5%。預計第四季非GAAP每股盈餘在1.20美元至1.46美元之間,稀釋後股數為1.57億股。GAAP每股收益預計介於1.12美元至1.39美元之間。
Summing up on Q3 results and Q4 guidance. AI is growing across the economy, driving exceptionally strong semiconductor test demand in the second half of 2025. This is evident in our Q3 sales, profit performance and our outlook for Q4. The acceleration of test demand in Q4 reflects customers' drive to pull AI projects in from Q1. We're optimistic about the AI-related market 2026, but we also know shipments can be lumpy.
總結第三季業績和第四季業績展望。人工智慧正在經濟的各個領域蓬勃發展,預計到 2025 年下半年,半導體測試需求將異常強勁。這一點在我們的第三季銷售額、利潤表現以及第四季度的展望中都有所體現。第四季測試需求的快速成長反映了客戶希望將人工智慧專案從第一季提前到第四季的意願。我們對 2026 年人工智慧相關市場持樂觀態度,但我們也知道出貨量可能會出現波動。
Now to my final remarks. After 6-plus years at Teradyne, it's clear that Teradyne is well positioned for significant growth over the midterm. Many environmental challenges have occurred during my tenure such as significant government regulations, COVID, tariffs, CEO transition, along with the strategic pivot of investments to AI in 2022. Through all of these opportunities, we have strengthened the company's infrastructure and processes.
現在我作最後總結。在泰瑞達工作六年多後,很明顯,泰瑞達已做好充分準備,將在中期內實現顯著增長。在我任職期間,出現了許多環境挑戰,例如重要的政府法規、新冠疫情、關稅、執行長更迭,以及 2022 年投資策略轉向人工智慧。透過所有這些機會,我們加強了公司的基礎設施和流程。
Our operational resilience is significantly stronger as we have derisked our supply chain, started the journey of multiple factories and multiple geographies to enable significant growth rooted in AI, strong management leads our diversified portfolio enabled through our variable business model, which has consistently delivered tremendous free cash flow through all of the changes and volatility we've experienced.
由於我們降低了供應鏈風險,開啟了在多個地區建立多家工廠的征程,從而實現了以人工智慧為基礎的顯著增長,強大的管理團隊領導著我們多元化的業務組合,並透過我們靈活的商業模式,在經歷所有變化和波動的情況下,持續創造了巨大的自由現金流,因此我們的營運韌性顯著增強。
Our balance sheet is strong with firepower to enable strategic investments, continue to deliver a balanced capital allocation and strong returns for our shareholders. I've had the opportunity to make New England my home and built many lasting relationships here internally and externally. I've enjoyed working with our shareholders and all of you in the investment community.
我們的資產負債表穩健,擁有充足的資金進行策略性投資,持續實現均衡的資本配置,並為股東帶來豐厚的回報。我有幸將新英格蘭作為我的家,並在這裡與國內外建立了許多持久的關係。我很高興能與我們的股東以及投資界的各位同仁一起工作。
With that, I'll turn the call back to the operator to open up the line for questions and soon hand the keys over to Michelle.
這樣,我就會把電話轉回給接線生,以便接聽提問,然後很快就把鑰匙交給米歇爾。
Operator?
操作員?
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions)
(操作說明)
CJ Muse, Cantor Fitzgerald.
CJ Muse,坎托·菲茨杰拉德。
C.J. Muse - Analyst
C.J. Muse - Analyst
Yeah, good morning. Thank you for taking the question, and Sanjay, big congrats to you. I guess when you look at -- so short-term question, long-term question. So short term, roughly $150 million upside versus consensus for December. And I would be curious if you could kind of share how much of that upside is versus what you thought maybe three months ago is driven by HBM, VIP, networking, SLT or perhaps other?
早安.感謝您回答這個問題,桑傑,恭喜你!我想當你檢視——所以是短期問題,也是長期問題。因此,短期來看,12 月的預期收益將比市場普遍預期高出約 1.5 億美元。我很想知道,您能否分享一下,與您三個月前認為的增長相比,其中有多少是由 HBM、VIP、人脈、SLT 或其他因素驅動的?
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
So CJ, it's Greg. When you look at Q4 it's really all in compute and memory is where the upside is coming from. If you look across the rest of the company, it's kind of not too different quarter-on-quarter, maybe a little bit stronger in our product test division, a little bit stronger in robotics.
所以CJ,我是格雷格。從第四季來看,成長主要來自運算和記憶體領域。如果縱觀公司其他部門,每個季度的情況並沒有太大變化,可能產品測試部門和機器人部門稍微強勁一些。
But the real story is in compute and memory. And I'd say it's kind of two-thirds, one-third in terms of the like compute is kind of two-thirds of it, memory is about one-third of it, and HBM is really strongly represented in that memory up.
但真正的故事在於計算和記憶體。我認為計算方面大概佔三分之二,記憶體方面佔三分之一,而 HBM 在記憶體方面佔有相當大的比重。
C.J. Muse - Analyst
C.J. Muse - Analyst
Very helpful. And then I guess, longer-term question on the compute side. I would be curious, as you think about high-performance compute, leapfrogging mobility reports suggest that NVIDIA is going to be the lead customer for -- with Feynman A16. How are you thinking about compute intensity? How are you thinking about increased test insertions?
很有幫助。然後,我想,關於計算方面的一個長期問題。我很好奇,當你考慮高效能運算時,跨越式行動報告表明,NVIDIA 將成為 Feynman A16 的主要客戶。您如何看待計算強度問題?您如何看待增加檢測插入量的問題?
And really, how are you thinking about kind of test time in a world where compute is driving leading edge?
那麼,在計算驅動技術前沿發展的世界裡,您是如何看待測試時間的呢?
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
So the -- we're pretty bullish about it in general, that as the die sizes get bigger and the performance required from the devices sort of gets -- the performance goes up, the test intensity also has to go up.
所以——總的來說,我們對此相當樂觀,隨著晶片尺寸增大,裝置所需的性能也隨之提高,測試強度也必須提高。
The other thing that makes us pretty optimistic in terms of sort of how this will affect the TAM for compute devices is that chiplet-based designs are becoming more and more of a thing. And when you get to the later stages of building up these complex multi-chip packages, the cost of -- sort of the cost of scrap really, really escalates. So that drives this sort of shift left adding tests intensity upstream.
另一個讓我們對運算設備市場規模 (TAM) 的影響相當樂觀的因素是,基於晶片組的設計正變得越來越普遍。當你進入建造這些複雜的多晶片封裝的後期階段時,廢料的成本就會急劇上升。因此,這就導致了這種向左轉移的趨勢,即在上游增加檢測強度。
And then there's also the downstream effect, which is these chips are going into data centers. And as NVIDIA likes to say, they're being used as if they're like 1 gigantic GPU. And so like 10,000, 50,000, 100,000 nodes have to work perfectly for an entire training run.
此外,還有下游效應,那就是這些晶片將被送入資料中心。正如英偉達所說,它們被當作一個巨型GPU來使用。因此,10,000、50,000、100,000 個節點必須在整個訓練過程中完美運作。
So there are tolerance for latent defects coming out in the middle of those kinds of training runs is very, very low. So those sort of environmental factors really make us think that the test intensity for the compute segment is going to continue to grow over the next few years.
因此,對於這類訓練過程中出現的潛在缺陷,容忍度非常非常低。因此,這些環境因素確實讓我們認為,未來幾年運算領域的測試強度將會持續成長。
The other thing that's happened in compute is that because it's now the primary driver for the semiconductor industry that many of the strategies that we've seen in the mobile space for years and years around things like dual sourcing, are becoming much more important to the producers in this space, like the strategy that you need when you're a small portion of your capital equipment providers, overall shipments is different when you actually dominate those shipments.
計算領域發生的另一件事是,由於它現在是半導體行業的主要驅動力,因此我們在移動領域多年來看到的許多策略,例如雙源採購,對這個領域的生產商來說變得更加重要,例如,當你只是資本設備供應商中的一小部分時所需的策略,與你實際主導這些出貨量時的整體出貨量是不同的。
You start to feel a little bit more vulnerable. And so customers in this space are increasingly turning to this notion of dual sourcing their supply chain at every step. And since we're coming from a lower share position trying to gain share, that dual sourcing is actually a very good thing for us.
你開始感到自己變得更脆弱了。因此,該領域的客戶越來越傾向於在供應鏈的每個環節中採用雙重採購模式。由於我們目前的市佔率較低,正在努力爭取市場份額,因此這種雙重採購方式實際上對我們來說是一件非常好的事情。
C.J. Muse - Analyst
C.J. Muse - Analyst
Thank you, Greg. Appreciate it.
謝謝你,格雷格。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Mehdi Hosseini, SIG.
Mehdi Hosseini,SIG。
Mehdi Hosseini - Equity Analyst
Mehdi Hosseini - Equity Analyst
Yeah, thanks for taking my question. Greg, I want to double click on these structural changes that are happening at various test insertion. And I want to focus on wafer level test. How do you see your activity and design wins manifesting into increased penetration in this specific segment. And with the burn in on a wafer level be part of those design wins? And I have a follow-up.
謝謝你回答我的問題。格雷格,我想雙擊查看在各種測試插入過程中發生的這些結構變化。我想專注於晶圓級測試。您認為您的活動和設計成果將如何轉化為在該特定細分市場中更高的滲透率?晶圓級老化測試能否成為設計成功的一部分?我還有一個後續問題。
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. So we definitely believe that SLT is a critical part for this sort of late-stage, ensuring that there aren't latent defects going into the data centers. So we think that there's positive effect there. The other thing is that there are new technologies that are coming along, like CoWoP where more complex modules are being built up and they need to go through a relatively extensive system test and burn-in.
是的。因此我們堅信,SLT 在這種後期階段至關重要,它能確保資料中心不會出現潛在的缺陷。所以我們認為這會產生正面影響。另一方面,還有一些新技術正在湧現,例如 CoWoP,它建構了更複雜的模組,這些模組需要經過相對廣泛的系統測試和老化測試。
So we believe that -- so we look at this as sort of a contiguous market between burn-in and SLT because the burn-in is generally done with the devices fully operating, not in a sort of -- in the test state.
所以我們認為——所以我們把這看作是老化測試和 SLT 之間的連續市場,因為老化測試通常是在設備完全運行的情況下進行的,而不是在測試狀態下進行的。
Mehdi Hosseini - Equity Analyst
Mehdi Hosseini - Equity Analyst
Okay. Maybe we could take this offline because there's so much technology. But when I look at your commentary that in your prepared remarks, none of the design wins have been embedded in your guide. I want to go back to your 2028 EPS target of $7 to $9.50. I imagine these design wins weren't factored in when you provided that target earlier this year.
好的。或許我們可以把這個主題轉到線下討論,因為這裡涉及的技術太多了。但是,當我查看你的評論時,發現你準備好的發言稿中並沒有將任何設計獲獎案例納入你的指南中。我想回到您之前給出的2028年每股收益目標,即7美元至9.50美元。我估計您在今年早些時候給出該目標時,並沒有將這些設計項目的成功案例考慮在內。
Would that be a fair statement? And how would you think about those targets in addition to the design wins that you highlighted in your prepared remarks?
這種說法公平嗎?除了您在準備好的演講稿中重點提到的設計成果之外,您如何看待這些目標?
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. So we'll update everyone in January in terms of our long-term model. The thing that I -- like as we're thinking about it, the thing that is apparent to us is that the long-term destination is not all that different, but the composition of the market is.
是的。所以我們會在一月向大家更新我們的長期模式。我認為——就像我們思考這個問題時,很明顯,長遠目標並沒有太大不同,但市場組成卻有所不同。
So we believe that we're well positioned to achieve the long-term model that we have published prior, but we believe that the composition of that business is going to be much more heavily dependent on the things that are being driven by the data center build-out. And that's across compute, networking, memory, even power that, that is far more important in the mix than the way we were looking at the long term before.
因此,我們相信我們有能力實現先前公佈的長期模式,但我們認為,該業務的組成將更加依賴資料中心建設所驅動的因素。而且,這涵蓋了計算、網路、內存,甚至電力,這在整體佈局中比我們以前看待長期問題的方式要重要得多。
Mehdi Hosseini - Equity Analyst
Mehdi Hosseini - Equity Analyst
Okay. Thank you.
好的。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Timothy Arcuri, UBS.
提摩西‧阿庫裡,瑞銀集團。
Timothy Arcuri - Analyst
Timothy Arcuri - Analyst
Greg, so I assume Semi Test is up something like $200 million in the guidance for December. So I'm just wondering if you can give us a sense. I know that this stuff is all pretty lumpy. But can you give us a sense like it seems like it's maybe evenly split between memory and SSD. Is that a fair just general number to kind of think about in terms of the composition of the growth in calendar Q4?
格雷格,所以我估計Semi Test在12月份的業績預期中上調了大約2億美元。所以我想知道您能否為我們介紹一下情況。我知道這些東西都結塊很厲害。但你能大概描述一下嗎?看起來記憶體和固態硬碟的比例似乎是五五開。這個數字是否合理,可以作為理解第四季經濟成長組成的一個參考?
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. So -- the -- it's not quite -- it's not half and half. It's more 2/3 compute and networking and 1/3 memory in the up.
是的。所以——這——它並不完全——它不是一半一半。其中 2/3 用於計算和網絡,1/3 用於記憶體。
Timothy Arcuri - Analyst
Timothy Arcuri - Analyst
Okay. Great. And then, Sanjay, can you talk a little bit about revenue shaping next year? I know memory tends to be pretty lumpy.
好的。偉大的。那麼,Sanjay,你能談談明年的收入規劃嗎?我知道記憶體往往不太穩定。
I mean, in particular, memory. And I know that there's this big stuff shipping in Q4. So can you just maybe give us a little bit of a sense on Q1? I mean, is it -- should we expect it to be down a little bit? And how do you see next year from a loading point of view?
我指的是,特別是記憶力。我知道第四季會有大件商品上市。那麼,能否簡單介紹一下Q1的問題呢?我的意思是,我們是不是應該預期它會稍微下降一些?從裝載量的角度來看,您如何看待明年?
Sanjay Mehta - Executive Advisor
Sanjay Mehta - Executive Advisor
Sure. I think in Greg's prepared remarks, we talked about the key drivers. And in my prepared -- key drivers going into 2026. And overall, we thought that the revenue would be up relative to 2025 tied to those drivers. And in my remarks, as well as Greg's, we talked about the acceleration of key projects that straddled Q3, Q4 and Q4, Q1 and the ones in kind of Q1 kind of accelerating into Q4.
當然。我認為在格雷格事先準備好的演講稿中,我們已經談到了關鍵驅動因素。而我已做好準備——邁向 2026 年的關鍵驅動因素。整體而言,我們認為與 2025 年相比,受這些驅動因素的影響,營收將會成長。在我的發言中,以及格雷格的發言中,我們都談到了跨越第三季、第四季和第一季度的關鍵項目的加速推進,以及那些在第一季度加速推進到第四季度的項目。
And so overall, we do see demand accelerating. I will share that from a seasonality, maybe if that's what you're getting to, is that the revenue mix has changed as we've noted in the second half, really tied to Semi Test driven by AI tied to compute and memory revenue.
因此總體而言,我們確實看到需求正在加速成長。我想從季節性角度來說(也許這就是你想要表達的意思),正如我們在下半年所指出的那樣,收入結構發生了變化,這主要與人工智能驅動的半導體測試以及計算和內存收入有關。
Historically, our business has been driven by the mobile launches where we've had significant demand in kind of Q2 and Q3. Business is no longer driven by that. If it comes in, sure, we'll have tailwinds on that front. It's more driven by compute projects. And those are lumpy, and they're really tied to customer launches.
從歷史上看,我們的業務一直由行動端產品發布推動,我們在第二季和第三季對這類產品的需求非常大。商業不再受此驅動。如果真的來了,那當然,我們在這方面會有順風。它更多地受到計算項目的影響。而且這些波動很大,它們與客戶發布密切相關。
So I think overall, what you'll see is a little different shaping in the way of seasonality for our business going forward. And we'll give you an update in the call in January.
所以我認為總體而言,未來我們業務的季節性發展趨勢將略有不同。我們將在1月的電話會議上向您報告最新情況。
Operator
Operator
Krish Sankar, TD Cowan. Your line is open.
Krish Sankar,TD Cowan。您的線路已開通。
Krish Sankar - Analyst
Krish Sankar - Analyst
Hi, thanks for taking my questions. This is Steven calling on behalf of Krish. Greg, first question for you related to the VIP customer demand as well as you mentioned of merchant GPU opportunities in the future. I guess first thing is in terms of the VIP customers, how much more expansion do you see in terms of the customer base from the larger CSPs and similarly for Tier 2 CSPs.
您好,感謝您回答我的問題。我是史蒂文,替克里什打來的電話。Greg,我的第一個問題與 VIP 客戶需求以及您提到的未來商家 GPU 機會有關。我想首先要問的是,就 VIP 客戶而言,您認為大型 CSP 的客戶群會有多少成長?同樣,二級 CSP 的客戶群也會有多少成長?
Is there a direct relationship that you have also with those customers potentially? Or is that more of a foundry type relationship?
您是否與這些客戶有直接的關聯?或者這更像是一種鑄造廠式的關係?
And similar question for merchant GPUs, is that direct or more of a foundry type of testing relationship?
對於商用 GPU,也有類似的問題,這種測試關係是直接的,還是更像是代工廠式的?
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
So in terms of the VIP customer base, it is incredibly concentrated that there are a lot of design starts. There are a lot of chips that are being developed, but the vast majority of the tester demand in the VIP space is really being driven by two customers. And that's how that market is playing out right now.
因此,就 VIP 客戶群而言,其集中度非常高,設計專案也很多。雖然有許多晶片正在研發中,但 VIP 領域絕大多數的測試器需求實際上是由兩個客戶推動的。這就是目前市場的發展現況。
What seems to be happening is that each of the hyperscalers has their own chip development program, and they benchmark that against what they can do with merchant silicon. And if the merchant silicon provides a better sort of tokens per watt, then they don't tend to ramp their internal silicon to the same extent.
目前的情況似乎是,每個超大規模資料中心營運商都有自己的晶片開發計劃,並以此作為基準來衡量他們使用商用晶片的能力。如果商用晶片每瓦能提供更好的代幣,那麼他們往往不會以同樣的程度提升其內部晶片的性能。
So like right now, we see that market as concentrated and it's going to expand -- that base is going to expand pretty slowly because it's a very competitive environment.
所以目前我們看到這個市場比較集中,而且它將要擴張——但這個基礎的擴張速度會相當緩慢,因為這是一個競爭非常激烈的環境。
The thing that we see with VIPs is as those VIPs are growing there, the actual specifier, the chip developer, the hyperscaler itself is exerting more control over the whole supply chain. They are moving from aggregator to aggregator. They are forming different partnerships and they're taking more control over their supply chain.
我們看到 VIP 的情況是,隨著 VIP 的發展壯大,實際的規格製定者、晶片開發商、超大規模資料中心本身正在對整個供應鏈施加更大的控制。他們正在從一個聚合平台轉移到另一個聚合平台。他們正在建立不同的合作關係,並加強對供應鏈的控制。
So sort of the way that people look at it in terms of the aggregator, the design partner as the one influencing the decisions, I think that, that is something that will fade over time, and we've seen it that occur in some of the VIP customers.
所以,人們看待聚合商、設計合作夥伴作為影響決策者的方式,我認為,隨著時間的推移,這種看法會逐漸消失,而且我們已經在一些 VIP 客戶身上看到了這種情況。
In the merchant space, it is all at the specifier, not at the foundry. So the merchant GPU or CPU player is the one that is going to decide on the test platform. They're the ones that are going to control the test programs and all the test IP. So our efforts around gaining share in merchant GPUs is directed at the specifier themselves, not at anyone in the supply chain.
在商業領域,一切都取決於規格製定者,而不是鑄造廠。因此,最終決定測試平台的是GPU或CPU廠商。他們將掌控測試程序和所有測試智慧財產權。因此,我們爭取在商用 GPU 市場佔有一席之地的努力是針對產品規格製定者本身,而不是針對供應鏈中的任何人。
Timothy Arcuri - Analyst
Timothy Arcuri - Analyst
Great. And just for my quick follow-up, for hard disk drives, just some of the strength that you mentioned there from the cloud demand, I was just curious like for System Test, like are you expecting strong double-digit growth in that segment for Q4 as well? Or could it be higher than that?
偉大的。我還有一個後續問題,關於硬碟,您剛才提到雲端需求帶來的強勁成長,我很好奇,對於系統測試,您是否也預計該領域在第四季也能實現兩位數的強勁成長?或可能更高?
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
So the process of adding capacity in HDD is -- it takes time. The manufacturing process for HDD is a complex one, highly automated. It's heavily capital-intensive, and so we're definitely seeing an uptick in the orders associated with that.
所以,增加硬碟容量的過程——需要時間。硬碟機的製造過程十分複雜,而且高度自動化。該行業屬於資本密集型行業,因此我們確實看到與此相關的訂單增加。
There's a lot of optimism in the space, but we would expect that to have a greater effect in 2026, then we would expect to see anything in 2025. 2025, I think, SLT is -- we're not expecting to see significant growth in the IST Group in Q4.
目前業界普遍樂觀,但我們預期這種樂觀情緒會在 2026 年產生更大的影響,而 2025 年我們可能不會看到任何影響。我認為,到 2025 年,SLT 將會——我們預計 IST 集團在第四季不會有顯著成長。
Timothy Arcuri - Analyst
Timothy Arcuri - Analyst
Great, thank you so much.
太好了,非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Shane Brett, Morgan Stanley.
Shane Brett,摩根士丹利。
Shane Brett - Analyst
Shane Brett - Analyst
Thank you for letting me ask a question. Let me ask a question in a bit more of a direct way. As of this moment, do you sort of expect SoC test to accelerate from this really strong December quarter into the first half where do you really kind of bake in a bit of seasonal decline or kind of a bit of conservatism into the March quarter? Thank you.
謝謝您允許我提問。讓我換個更直接的方式問個問題。就目前而言,您是否預計SoC測試會從12月這個非常強勁的季度加速成長,並延續到上半年?您會考慮到季節性下滑,或是在3月季度採取一些保守策略?謝謝。
Sanjay Mehta - Executive Advisor
Sanjay Mehta - Executive Advisor
I'll just reiterate some comments and maybe, Greg, if you want to add to it. The second half of the year of '25, we talked about straddling and we talked about the projects accelerating, and we're seeing that continue to accelerate. Of course, there's projects in the pipeline in Q1 and Q2 of 2026. It's just going to depend on how those projects go. Generally, we're seeing projects accelerate though.
我只想重申一些觀點,格雷格,如果你想補充的話。2025 年下半年,我們討論了跨界發展,也討論了專案加速推進,我們看到這種加速趨勢仍在繼續。當然,2026 年第一季和第二季也有一些項目正在籌備中。這完全取決於這些項目的進度。總體而言,我們看到專案正在加速推進。
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. I think as we talked about, there are things that are perched between quarters. The thing that I will say is Q4 was sort of a new high watermark for us in terms of capacity and shipping against our memory test and our SoC products.
是的。我認為正如我們討論的那樣,有些東西處於兩難。我想說的是,第四季在產能和出貨量方面,無論是在記憶測試還是SoC產品方面,都達到了一個新的高峰。
We expect demand to continue to be robust going into 2026. But like as an analyst, it would probably be a mistake to like look at the growth from Q3 to Q4 and draw a line straight up from there because there -- it's -- we're at a relatively high level, and we expect continued strength, but it is really lumpy and the timing continues to be uncertain, even between Q1 and Q2 of next year.
我們預計到2026年,需求將持續強勁。但作為分析師,如果只看第三季度到第四季度的增長,然後從那裡直接向上畫一條線,那可能就錯了,因為目前我們處於一個相對較高的水平,我們預計增長勢頭會繼續保持強勁,但增長確實波動很大,而且時間安排仍然不確定,即使是在明年第一季度和第二季度之間也是如此。
Shane Brett - Analyst
Shane Brett - Analyst
Got it. That's helpful. And for my follow-up, it's on memory. At a conference intra-quarter, you mentioned that on a go-forward basis, DRAM and NAND will grow, but NAND will grow faster because of how low it is right now. Just how low has NAND been this year relative to prior years?
知道了。那很有幫助。我的後續問題是關於記憶力的。在季度中期的一次會議上,您提到,從長遠來看,DRAM 和 NAND 都會成長,但 NAND 的成長速度會更快,因為 NAND 目前的市場規模很低。今年NAND快閃記憶體的價格與往年相比究竟跌了多少?
And what sort of growth are you expecting for the NAND portion of memory going forward? Thank you.
那麼,您預計未來NAND快閃記憶體部分將有怎樣的成長?謝謝。
Sanjay Mehta - Executive Advisor
Sanjay Mehta - Executive Advisor
Yes. It's Sanjay. So NAND is really low -- really from a percentage standpoint. I think it's really going to tie to the growth driven in the mobile industry. And if we see that growth, then it will -- then it should take off.
是的。是桑傑。所以從百分比的角度來看,NAND快閃記憶體的佔比真的很低。我認為這與行動產業的成長息息相關。如果我們看到這種成長,那麼它就會——那麼它應該會起飛。
But right now, it's at a really low point. And where we see it -- where we see DRAM is strengthening, obviously, in the HBM environment.
但現在,它正處於非常低的水平。我們看到,DRAM 的優勢——顯然是在 HBM 環境中——正在增強。
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. So our -- in the quarter, our business was 75% DRAM, 25% flash. And if you look at the results for our competitors, even more dominated by their DRAM shipments. Going into 2026, if there is -- so there's a couple of things going on in flash in 2026. There's likely to be a protocol shift in the mobile market, and that will drive some tester capacity purchase just to support those new standards.
是的。所以,本季我們的業務中,DRAM 佔 75%,快閃記憶體佔 25%。如果你看看我們競爭對手的業績,你會發現他們的 DRAM 出貨量更是佔據主導地位。展望 2026 年,如果真有那麼一年的話——所以 2026 年 Flash 領域會有幾件事發生。行動市場可能會出現協議轉變,這將推動一些測試設備容量的購買,只是為了支持這些新標準。
And then there's the X factor around SSD capacity required for AI data centers. And right now, I think that there's -- there are like rumblings in the end market that there's going to be demand increase for SSD. We haven't seen that translated in terms of increased forecast, but we're optimistic that, that market should be a bit stronger in '26 than it was in '25.
此外,人工智慧資料中心所需的固態硬碟容量也是未知因素。而現在,我認為終端市場已經出現了一些跡象,顯示對固態硬碟的需求將會增加。雖然我們還沒有看到這種樂觀情緒轉化為更高的預測,但我們樂觀地認為,2026 年的市場應該會比 2025 年更強勁一些。
Sanjay Mehta - Executive Advisor
Sanjay Mehta - Executive Advisor
And maybe just to add to my comments for a little bit more color. If you go back to 2020 or 2021, the DRAM and flash mix was more like 50-50 in rough numbers. But the flash view of TAM looking backwards was more than double than what it is now. And so it's really contracted. It's a much smaller component of the memory TAM.
也許我還可以補充一點,讓我的評論更生動一些。如果回顧 2020 年或 2021 年,DRAM 和快閃記憶體的比例大致為 50:50。但回顧過去,TAM 的閃光燈視圖是現在的兩倍多。所以它實際上已經縮水了。它是記憶體 TAM 中一個很小的組成部分。
Shane Brett - Analyst
Shane Brett - Analyst
Got it, thank you. That was really helpful.
明白了,謝謝。那真的很有幫助。
Operator
Operator
Jim Schneider, Goldman Sachs.
吉姆‧施耐德,高盛集團。
James Schneider - Analyst
James Schneider - Analyst
Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I was wondering if you could maybe kind of return to your expectations for mobile SoC heading into next year, realizing that Q2 and Q3 are seasonally stronger quarters. Do you have any sense about what you might expect sort of directionally in terms of improvement next year? And maybe just remind us of the relative sort of either test time or content increase you expect moving to the N2 generation?
早安.謝謝您回答我的問題。我想知道您是否可以稍微調整一下您對明年移動 SoC 的預期,考慮到第二季和第三季通常是季節性強季。您對明年在發展方向上的改進有什麼預期嗎?或許可以提醒我們一下,您預計從 N2 代到 N2 代,考試時間或考試內容會有怎樣的相對增長?
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Jim, so mobile SoC has been at a pretty low level for the past couple of years. Looking forward to next year, we don't know. I think the honest answer is we don't know exactly how big it would be. We're optimistic that it should be bigger than it is this year, but we're unsure of the magnitude of that. And let me tell you the why.
吉姆,所以移動SoC在過去幾年裡一直處於相當低的水平。展望明年,我們不得而知。我認為誠實的答案是我們並不清楚它究竟有多大。我們樂觀地認為今年的規模會比今年更大,但我們不確定具體會有多大。讓我來告訴你為什麼。
So there are three factors in terms of how big the mobile TAM is really going to be. One is the complexity of the part. And with N2 and with new packaging technologies like WMCM, we expect that the test intensity per part is going to be higher, like double digits kind of higher.
因此,行動市場實際規模有多大取決於三個因素。一是零件的複雜性。隨著 N2 和 WMCM 等新型封裝技術的應用,我們預期每個零件的測試強度將會更高,可能會高出兩位數。
The next factor is like yield. For new technologies, sometimes yield is lower. We do not count on that because there's been sort of a pattern of execution at very high yields for these kinds of products. So we are not expecting that to be a particular tailwind.
下一個因素類似於收益率。對於新技術而言,有時產量會較低。我們不指望這種情況,因為這類產品的產量一直都很高,這已經形成了一種模式。所以我們並不認為這會成為一個特別有利的因素。
The one that's really the most important factor right now is in unit volume that if there is a significant upward inflection in handset sales, people are refreshing phones because new phones are doing something interesting, then that not only drives the whole mobile processor space, but it also drives RF and PMIC and everything else.
目前最重要的因素是銷量,如果手機銷量出現顯著成長,人們會因為新手機的功能而更換手機,那麼這不僅會推動整個行動處理器市場的發展,還會推動射頻、電源管理積體電路以及其他所有相關技術的發展。
So I think the big X factor for us is whether we see an inflection in unit sales in 2026. If we do, it could be a strong year. If we don't, it would probably be just a modest improvement from where it is.
所以我認為對我們來說最大的未知因素是,我們能否在 2026 年看到銷售出現轉折點。如果能做到,今年可能會是豐收的一年。如果我們不這樣做,情況可能只會比現在略有改善。
James Schneider - Analyst
James Schneider - Analyst
That's helpful, Greg. And then maybe from a sort of financial perspective, obviously, 2026 is saving up to be a relatively solid growth year for you, but maybe you can remind us of the OpEx leverage you expect to get in the model, in other words, for every dollar of revenue increase or every 10% of revenue increase, how much OpEx increase would you expect to flow through? Thank you.
那很有幫助,格雷格。然後,從財務角度來看,顯然,2026 年對您來說將是一個相對穩健的增長年,但您能否提醒我們一下您預計在模型中獲得的運營支出槓桿作用,換句話說,每增加 1 美元的收入或每增加 10% 的收入,您預計會有多少運營支出增加?謝謝。
Sanjay Mehta - Executive Advisor
Sanjay Mehta - Executive Advisor
It's Sanjay. So as I said in my prepared remarks, our growth in OpEx was a little bit higher relative to the leverage we wanted to have -- we have in our overall earnings model, and that's going to happen from year-to-year. But in 2026, and our operating principle is basically for every dollar of revenue, we want to have of growth, we'd see roughly 50% of that in OpEx growth. So kind of like a ensuring that we are driving OpEx leverage. We expect to be at roughly that rule going into next year or being at that target roughly in 2026.
是桑傑。正如我在準備好的演講稿中所說,我們的營運支出成長相對於我們想要達到的槓桿水平(即我們在整體獲利模型中設定的槓桿水平)略高,而且這種情況會逐年發生。但到了 2026 年,我們的營運原則基本上是,每增加一美元的收入,我們希望看到約 50% 的營運支出成長。所以,這有點像是確保我們能夠有效利用營運支出槓桿。我們預計明年將大致達到該規則,或在 2026 年左右達到該目標。
Operator
Operator
Samik Chatterjee, JPMorgan.
Samik Chatterjee,摩根大通。
Samik Chatterjee - Analyst
Samik Chatterjee - Analyst
Hi, thanks for taking my question and Sanjay, congrats on the retirement. And Michelle, congrats on the role as well. Maybe for the first one, Greg, I'm curious, I mean, you're calling out the memory increase overall in 4Q. And clearly, it looks like a step-up for next year as well.
您好,感謝您回答我的問題,桑傑,恭喜您退休。也祝賀米歇爾獲得這個角色。格雷格,或許對於第一個問題,我很好奇,我的意思是,你提到了第四季整體記憶體的成長。顯然,明年看來也會更上一層樓。
How much of the improvement here is related to market share that you talked about market share wins that you talked about earlier in the year relative to sort of general industry purchasing patterns being better.
這裡所取得的進步有多少與您年初談到的市佔率成長有關,又有多少與產業整體採購模式的改善有關?
And when you look at the overall portfolio, what are the end markets you would expect to sort of gain share and which are the areas you would sort of highlight as share opportunities as you look to 2026? And then I have a quick follow-up. Thank you.
從整體投資組合來看,您預期哪些終端市場會獲得市場佔有率?展望 2026 年,您會專注於哪些領域的市佔率成長機會?然後我還有一個簡短的後續問題。謝謝。
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yea. So the way that we look at the memory market is primarily -- think of it as like a 2x2 grid. We think of DRAM and we think of flash memory and then the other axis is wafer sort and then final or performance test. And if you look at like within each segment, our share is like very high like flash final test and DRAM final test, HBM performance test. We have healthy share in the final test section of the grid.
是的。所以我們看待記憶體市場的方式主要是——把它想像成一個 2x2 的網格。我們想到DRAM,想到閃存,然後另一個維度是晶圓分選,然後是最終或性能測試。如果你看一下每個細分市場,我們的份額非常高,例如快閃記憶體最終測試、DRAM最終測試、HBM效能測試。我們在網格的最終測試部分佔有相當大的份額。
Our share overall in the wafer sort, excluding HBM performance test is significantly lower. And so when the market is dominated by purchases for final test, our share tends to go up. And when the market is dominated by capacity adds for wafer sort, our share tends to go down.
除 HBM 效能測試外,我們在晶圓分類中的整體份額明顯較低。因此,當市場以最終測試的採購為主時,我們的份額往往會上升。當晶圓分選產能擴張佔據市場主導地位時,我們的市佔率往往會下降。
Looking into 2026, we're expecting that it's going to be an expansion year for memory in general. And so we think it's going to be a good year for us, but we also think that there's going to be a significant expansion in the SAM for the wafer sort part of the market. So I don't know if we're going to see significant share increase but I'm pretty sure we're going to see revenue growth.
展望 2026 年,我們預期這將是記憶體產業整體擴張的一年。因此,我們認為今年對我們來說將是好年頭,但我們也認為晶圓分選市場的 SAM 將會大幅擴張。所以我不知道市佔率是否會大幅成長,但我相當肯定我們會看到營收成長。
Samik Chatterjee - Analyst
Samik Chatterjee - Analyst
Okay. Great. And then a quick one for Sanjay here, Sanjay, and I apologize if this has been addressed before, I jumped on a bit late. But the gross margin guide for 4Q relative to where you ended 3Q, given the volume leverage that you should ideally see a bit more sort of muted. Can you just walk through the gross margin driver for the fourth quarter?
好的。偉大的。然後,這裡還有一個關於桑傑的問題,桑傑,如果這個問題之前已經討論過,我先道個歉,我來晚了。但考慮到銷售槓桿作用,第四季毛利率相對於第三季末的水平應該會略有下降。能否簡要介紹一下第四季的毛利率驅動因素?
Sanjay Mehta - Executive Advisor
Sanjay Mehta - Executive Advisor
Sure. So obviously, volumes are going up, and that's a tailwind. And we're -- at the midpoint, our guide is 57.5% and the headwind is really driven by two factors. First, we are investing in factory expansion in multiple geographies. That's a bit of a headwind.
當然。很顯然,銷量正在上升,這是一個利好因素。而我們——目前處於中間點,我們的指導值為 57.5%,而逆風實際上是由兩個因素造成的。首先,我們正在多個地區投資擴建工廠。這有點不利。
But I think the larger headwind is really tied to the significant acceleration tied to projects and end market demand. And to meet our customer delivery requirements, we've gone out and we've sourced some -- think of it as onetime kind of supply that's had kind of onetime, a little bit of elevated cost tied to meeting kind of customer requirements.
但我認為更大的阻力實際上與專案和終端市場需求的顯著加速有關。為了滿足客戶的交付要求,我們外出採購了一些——可以把它看作是一次性的供應,其成本略高,是為了滿足客戶的要求。
And so that's what's occurring in Q4. So two headwinds offsetting the volume tailwind is really the expansion of the factory and some supply chain kind of cost increase that's somewhat transitory or onetime.
這就是第四季正在發生的事情。因此,抵銷銷售順風的兩大不利因素是工廠擴張和供應鏈成本增加,而這些成本增加在某種程度上是暫時的或一次性的。
Samik Chatterjee - Analyst
Samik Chatterjee - Analyst
Okay, great, thanks for taking my questions.
好的,太好了,謝謝你們回答我的問題。
Operator
Operator
Brian Chin, Stiffel.
Brian Chin,Stiffel。
Brian Chin - Analyst
Brian Chin - Analyst
Hi there. Good morning. Thanks for letting us ask a few questions and thanks, Sanjay, definitely wish you the best. For the first question, on the AI accelerator part of the business, can you give us a sense of how significantly weighted that was the second half and maybe 4Q this year. And obviously, a lot of networking strength this year in SoC. For the full year, is AI accelerated revenue significantly above what you expected entering the year?
你好呀。早安.感謝您允許我們提問,也謝謝您,桑傑,祝您一切順利。第一個問題,關於人工智慧加速器業務部分,您能否讓我們了解該業務在今年下半年乃至第四季所佔的比重有多大?顯然,今年SoC領域有很多網路方面的強項。全年來看,人工智慧加速帶來的收入是否顯著高於您年初的預期?
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
That's -- it's an interesting question because our view of the year changed pretty dramatically between January and March. So in January, we were pretty optimistic about how 2025 would come out. By March, we were far more pessimistic because there was a lot of uncertainty in the market by the -- but leaving the year, like looking at it from the -- towards the end of 2025, I would say that our -- like sort of maybe this is at a higher level than you asked the question, but definitely significantly higher revenue in compute, both VIP compute and networking have worked out to be stronger than we expected coming into the year.
這是一個有趣的問題,因為我們對一年的看法在一月到三月之間發生了相當大的變化。所以在1月份,我們對2025年的發展前景相當樂觀。到了三月份,我們變得更加悲觀,因為當時市場存在很多不確定性——但是,從2025年底的角度來看,我認為我們的——也許這比你問的問題要高一些,但計算收入肯定會大幅增長,VIP計算和網絡業務都比我們年初預期的要強勁得多。
I would say that mobile is weaker than we expected coming into the year and auto and industrial is a little bit weaker as well. But the up in the compute space is the thing that really kind of brought us back up to that level.
我認為移動領域比我們年初預期的要弱,汽車和工業領域也略顯疲軟。但計算領域的進步才是真正讓我們回到那個水準的因素。
Memory, I think, has strengthened from our perspective at the beginning of the year, but not as significantly as the growth in the compute space.
我認為,從年初的角度來看,記憶體領域有所增強,但其成長幅度不如計算領域。
Brian Chin - Analyst
Brian Chin - Analyst
Okay. Great. And then for maybe just kind of a clarification and a question. In Industrial Robotics, do you expect Q4 to ship some positive seasonality Q-on-Q? Or could you even approach flat on a year-over-year basis?
好的。偉大的。然後,可能還有一點需要澄清和提問。在工業機器人領域,您預計第四季的出貨量會比上一季成長嗎?或者,您甚至有可能實現同比持平嗎?
I know there's definitely some headwinds for the year and probably into the back half of the year. And then kind of maybe not that tied to it, but just very curious on the Titan SLT, just for any given accelerated shift, is it common to just win that insertion kind of towards the back end of that test queue? Or is it more common do you think to win multiple subsequent insertions as well?
我知道今年肯定會面臨一些不利因素,而且這種情況可能會持續到下半年。然後,雖然可能與此關係不大,但我很好奇 Titan SLT,對於任何給定的加速輪班,是否經常能在測試隊列的末尾贏得插入機會?或者你認為連續多次插入都獲勝的情況更常見嗎?
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
So in terms of SLT, once you have been designed in for a particular AI accelerator, then our -- the Titan system for these AI accelerators was designed with sort of significant upgradability. So going from part generation to part generation as long as it fits within the general power envelope that we can provide, and there's some headroom there, then you're able to do change kits and upgrades.
因此,就 SLT 而言,一旦您被設計成使用特定的 AI 加速器,那麼我們的 Titan 系統(專為這些 AI 加速器設計)就具有相當大的可升級性。因此,只要零件的改進符合我們能夠提供的整體功率範圍,並且還有一些餘量,那麼就可以進行零件的更換和升級。
So there is an incumbency advantage in SLT. Kind of it's similar to the incumbency advantage that you have in ATE, not quite as strong, but pretty strong.
因此,SLT存在現任優勢。這有點像你在 ATE 中擁有的現任優勢,雖然沒有那麼強,但也相當強了。
Sanjay Mehta - Executive Advisor
Sanjay Mehta - Executive Advisor
And then on the robotics front.
然後是機器人技術方面。
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Sure.
當然。
Sanjay Mehta - Executive Advisor
Sanjay Mehta - Executive Advisor
Yeah. So there is some seasonality that we are expecting. We do expect an increase from Q4 to Q3 and what we view as a weaker kind of automation market. And as you know, we're still working through the strategic shift to large accounts and OEMs, but we do expect a seasonal uplift.
是的。所以,我們預期會存在一些季節性因素。我們預計第四季將比第三季有所成長,但我們認為自動化市場整體而言會比較疲軟。如您所知,我們仍在努力實現向大客戶和原始設備製造商的策略轉變,但我們預計會出現季節性成長。
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
One comment on robotics is that we've seen through this year that our ability to predict our revenue is somewhat limited. We are -- it's a very high turns business. We see demand shifting and demand responding to sort of current events depending on where you are.
關於機器人技術,有一點需要說明,那就是我們今年已經看到,我們預測收入的能力在某種程度上是有限的。我們是——這是一個波動性非常大的行業。我們看到需求會隨著所在地區的不同而變化,並且會對當前發生的各種事件做出反應。
So we're trying to be as cautious as we can in terms of predicting growth. We do expect that Q4 would be stronger, but we're not predicting a gigantic hockey stick or anything like that.
因此,我們在預測成長方面力求盡可能謹慎。我們預計第四季度業績會更好,但我們並不預測會出現巨大的成長勢頭。
Brian Chin - Analyst
Brian Chin - Analyst
Great, thanks, Sanjay. Thanks, Greg.
太好了,謝謝你,桑傑。謝謝你,格雷格。
Operator
Operator
Vedvati Shrotre, Evercore.
Vedvati Shrotre,Evercore。
Vedvati Shrotre - Equity Analyst
Vedvati Shrotre - Equity Analyst
Hi, thanks for taking my question. The first one I have is a follow-up to the HBM questions you had. So on HBM, you talked about a new test insertion, like a singulated die test and you're shipping volumes in 3Q. So I wanted to understand if that is the norm now? Has that increased the TAM? And are all suppliers expected to do this (multiple speakers) factors?
您好,感謝您回答我的問題。我的第一個問題是對您之前提出的 HBM 問題的後續問題。所以關於 HBM,你談到了一種新的測試插入方式,例如單晶片測試,並且你們在第三季開始出貨。所以我想知道這是否是現在的常態?這是否增加了潛在市場規模(TAM)?所有供應商都必須考慮這些因素(多揚聲器)嗎?
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. So right now, only one major manufacturer is routinely doing this singulated stack testing. And I wouldn't say that it is even pervasive across all memory types. We're not sure. If there is a significant improvement in downstream yield, the device that the HBM gets put into, if yield of that device goes up and HBM-related faults go down as causes of problems downstream, then that will proliferate across multiple manufacturers.
是的。所以目前,只有一家大型製造商在常規地進行這種單堆測試。而且我也不認為這種情況普遍存在於所有類型的記憶中。我們不確定。如果下游良率顯著提高,那麼 HBM 應用到的裝置的良率就會提高,而 HBM 相關的故障作為下游問題的原因就會減少,那麼這種改進將會在多家製造商中推廣開來。
But right now, it's really only one of the three major HBM manufacturers is doing that for a high volume of devices.
但目前,三大 HBM 製造商中只有一家在大量生產這種設備。
Vedvati Shrotre - Equity Analyst
Vedvati Shrotre - Equity Analyst
Understood. Okay. And then my follow-up was on SoC. Have you -- can you provide any color on how much compute is as a part of SoC in second half '25? And then even as we think about 2028, I think your -- during the Analyst Day, the idea was the composition would be one-third mobility, one-third compute and one-third auto industrial market. So do you have an update to that now that compute is a strong driver?
明白了。好的。然後我的後續研究是關於SoC的。您能否提供一些關於2025年下半年SoC中運算能力佔比的資訊?即使我們展望 2028 年,我認為——在分析師日上,你們的想法是,市場組成將由三分之一的移動出行、三分之一的計算和三分之一的汽車工業市場組成。既然運算能力已成為強勁的驅動力,那麼你對此有何最新進展?
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
So do you want to take the compute second half?
那麼你想參加電腦科學的後半部嗎?
Sanjay Mehta - Executive Advisor
Sanjay Mehta - Executive Advisor
Sure. Look, I won't break out the specific numbers, it is a significant component, just as we've talked about. And in the second -- in mobile was more first half dominated tied to supply chain shift. And think of the second half of our business is very strongly driven by compute really tied to VIPs and networking. So a very significant component.
當然。聽著,我不會透露具體數字,但這確實是一個重要組成部分,正如我們之前討論過的。而第二點——行動端市場在上半年受到供應鏈轉變的更多影響。想想看,我們業務的後半部分很大程度上是由計算驅動的,而計算又與 VIP 和網路密切相關。所以這是一個非常重要的組成部分。
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
So I did a quick math and like. So this is trying to understand AI driven. So it includes all of the memory-driven stuff and the SoC compute stuff. Just like from Q3 to Q4, like 50% of our total revenue in Q3 was coming from AI-driven stuff in those segments. It's up to like 60% in Q4.
所以我快速計算了一下,然後…所以這是在嘗試理解人工智慧驅動的過程。所以它包含了所有記憶體驅動的部分和SoC計算的部分。就像從第三季到第四季一樣,第三季我們總營收的 50% 左右都來自這些領域的 AI 驅動業務。第四季已經達到 60% 左右。
So this is -- it's a very different composition of business in 2025 and especially the second half of 2025 from where we were before. We'll update you in January in terms of what our long-term model is. But it's safe to assume that, that model is going to have a much heavier weight on the compute and the compute part of the market and the AI-driven parts of the memory market.
所以,2025 年的商業組成,尤其是 2025 年下半年的商業組成,與我們之前的情況截然不同。我們將在1月向您詳細介紹我們的長期模式。但可以肯定的是,該模型將在計算領域和計算市場以及人工智慧驅動的記憶體市場中佔據更重要的地位。
Vedvati Shrotre - Equity Analyst
Vedvati Shrotre - Equity Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
David Duley, Steelhead Securities.
David Duley,Steelhead Securities。
David Duley - Analyst
David Duley - Analyst
Thank you and thank you for squeezing my question and I guess, first, I had a clarification. You talked about strength in AI in Q4 coming from networking and hyperscalers and HBM. I'm assuming that you have not won any business on stand-alone GPUs yet, and that is not included in any of the guidance statements.
謝謝,也謝謝您仔細審閱我的問題。我想,首先,我需要澄清一下。您提到第四季度人工智慧領域的優勢來自網路、超大規模資料中心和 HBM。我假設你們還沒有贏得任何獨立GPU的業務,而且這也沒有包含在任何指導性聲明中。
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, that's correct. Look, we're making good progress, but we have not included that in our guide and there wasn't revenue for that in Q3.
是的,沒錯。你看,我們取得了不錯的進展,但我們沒有將其納入我們的業績指引,而且第三季也沒有這方面的收入。
David Duley - Analyst
David Duley - Analyst
Okay. And then as my follow-on, do you think you could update us on the size of the SoC TAM and then perhaps some of the major pieces like the high-performance computing piece? And then just one last question is, as far as your HBM4 ramp going into Q4 -- excuse me, HBM ramp going into Q4, is that mainly driven by HBM4 ramping up? Or is it driven by new test insertions or is it driven by something else?
好的。接下來,您能否介紹一下 SoC 的 TAM 規模,以及一些主要部分,例如高效能運算部分?最後一個問題是,關於您在第四季度 HBM4 產能提升——抱歉,是第四季度 HBM 產能提升——這主要是由 HBM4 產能提升所驅動的嗎?或者,這是由新增測試案例驅動的,還是由其他因素驅動的?
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
So let me take the second one first. So the HBM ramp that we're seeing in Q4 is probably half and half between new test insertion and additional capacity for -- and it's really like new test insertion singulated stack test. Additional capacity is for stack die wafer level test.
那我就先回答第二個問題吧。因此,我們在第四季度看到的 HBM 產能提升可能一半用於新的測試插入,一半用於額外的產能——實際上就像新的測試插入單層堆疊測試一樣。新增產能用於堆疊晶片晶圓級測試。
So both of those are increasing, but it's all around capacity adds for HBM4 or like it's all driven by HBM4. Now we are not providing an update to the SoC TAM mainly because the SoC TAM is all over the place.
所以這兩者都在成長,但這一切都是圍繞 HBM4 產能的增加,或者說這一切都是由 HBM4 驅動的。現在我們不提供 SoC TAM 的更新,主要是因為 SoC TAM 的情況非常混亂。
And for both Teradyne and our competition, there is a lot of dynamic action between Q4 and Q1, that's going to have a significant impact on the ultimate size of the market and especially the size of the high-performance computer market. So we're going to stick with our overall guide, and we're going to watch how that turns out.
對於泰瑞達和我們的競爭對手來說,第四季到第一季之間有很多動態變化,這將對市場的最終規模,尤其是高效能電腦市場的規模產生重大影響。所以我們將堅持我們的整體指導方針,並觀察結果如何。
Operator
Operator
This concludes the Q&A portion of today's conference. I would now like to turn the call back over to Greg Smith for closing remarks.
今天的問答環節到此結束。現在我謹將電話交還給格雷格·史密斯,請他作總結發言。
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, operator. I'd like to offer a quick final thought. I mentioned in closing the July call that AI was having a profound and positive impact on Teradyne's business. I'm encouraged by how quickly we're seeing returns on our investments to pivot to AI.
謝謝接線生。最後,我想補充一點想法。我在7月的電話會議結束時提到,人工智慧對泰瑞達的業務產生了深遠而積極的影響。我對我們在人工智慧領域的投資如此迅速地獲得回報感到鼓舞。
AI is the dominant driver of our business for the foreseeable future and will continue to align ourselves to the outsized opportunities that it offers.
在可預見的未來,人工智慧將是我們業務的主要驅動力,我們將繼續調整自身以適應它所帶來的巨大機會。
We've made great strides so far in 2025 and while our progress is not expected to be entirely linear, we're more excited than ever about our prospects for continued profitable growth in the years ahead.
2025 年至今,我們取得了長足的進步。雖然我們預計未來的發展不會完全是線性的,但我們對未來幾年持續獲利成長的前景比以往任何時候都更加充滿信心。
Thanks for joining us today, and I look forward to updating you on our progress in January. Thank you.
感謝您今天參加我們的活動,我期待在1月向您報告我們的進展。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
This concludes today's Teradyne third quarter 2025 earnings call and webcast. You may disconnect your line at this time. Have a wonderful day.
泰瑞達公司2025年第三季財報電話會議和網路直播到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路了。祝您有美好的一天。