Teradyne 召開電話會議,討論 2024 年第一季財務業績,強調了內存和 SOC 的強勁表現、人工智慧對業務的影響以及對第二季度的預期。他們預計,在人工智慧應用的推動下,運算 TAM、記憶體測試市場和機器人業務將會成長。
該公司提供了第一季的財務摘要、第二季的展望以及全年的預期。他們討論了 VIP 項目、2 奈米技術以及智慧型手機中人工智慧整合的影響。
泰瑞達 (Teradyne) 預計,在機器人技術新增長動力以及與 NVIDIA 合作的推動下,全年將實現環比增長。他們對自己在機器人市場的地位和潛在的成長機會感到樂觀。
使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Greetings, and welcome to Q1 2024 Teradyne, Inc. Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.
大家好,歡迎參加泰瑞達公司2024年第一季財報電話會議。 (操作員指示) 溫馨提示:本次會議正在錄音中。
It is now my pleasure to introduce your host Traci Tsuchiguchi, Vice President, Investor Relations. Thank you, Ms. Tsuchiguchi. You may begin.
現在,我很高興介紹主持人、投資者關係副總裁Traci Tsuchiguchi。謝謝您,Tsuchiguchi女士。您可以開始了。
Traci Tsuchiguchi
Traci Tsuchiguchi
Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our discussion of Teradyne's most recent financial results. I'm joined this morning by our CEO, Greg Smith; and our CFO, Sanjay Mehta. Following our opening remarks, we'll provide details of our performance for the first quarter of 2024 and our outlook for the second quarter of 2024.
謝謝接線生。大家早安,歡迎參加我們關於泰瑞達最新財務表現的討論。今天上午,我們的執行長 Greg Smith 和首席財務長 Sanjay Mehta 也參加了此次會議。在致開幕詞之後,我們將詳細介紹 2024 年第一季的業績以及 2024 年第二季的展望。
The press release containing our first quarter results was issued last evening. We are providing slides on the Investor page of our website that may be helpful in following the discussion. Replays of this call will be available via the same page after the call ends.
我們第一季業績的新聞稿已於昨晚發布。我們在網站的「投資者」頁面上提供了幻燈片,希望對您理解討論有所幫助。會議結束後,您可以在同一頁面上觀看本次電話會議的重播。
The matters that we discuss today will include forward-looking statements that involve risks that could cause Teradyne's results to differ materially from management's current expectations. We caution listeners not to place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements included in this presentation. We encourage you to review the safe harbor statement contained in slides accompanying this presentation as well as the risk factors described in our annual report on the 10-K with the SEC.
我們今天討論的事項將包含前瞻性陳述,這些陳述涉及的風險可能導致泰瑞達的業績與管理層的當前預期產生重大差異。我們提醒聽眾不要過度依賴本簡報中的任何前瞻性陳述。我們建議您閱讀本簡報隨附幻燈片中的安全港聲明,以及我們向美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 提交的 10-K 年度報告中所述的風險因素。
Additionally, these forward-looking statements are made only as of today. During today's call, we will make reference to non-GAAP financial measures. We have posted additional information concerning these non-GAAP financial measures including reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure where available on the Investor Relations page of our website. Looking ahead between now and our next earnings call, Teradyne expects to participate in technology or investor-focused investor conferences, hosted by JPMorgan, KeyBanc, Cowen, Bernstein and Stifel.
此外,這些前瞻性陳述僅截至今日有效。在今天的電話會議上,我們將參考非公認會計準則 (non-GAAP) 財務指標。我們已在網站的「投資者關係」頁面上發布了有關這些非公認會計準則 (non-GAAP) 財務指標的更多信息,包括與最直接可比的公認會計準則 (GAAP) 財務指標的對賬表(如有)。展望從現在到下次財報電話會議期間,泰瑞達預計將參加由摩根大通 (JPMorgan)、KeyBanc、Cowen、Bernstein 和 Stifel 主辦的以技術或投資者為中心的投資者會議。
Following Greg and Sanjay's comments this morning, we'll open up the call for questions. This call is scheduled for 1 hour. Greg?
根據格雷格和桑傑今天上午的發言,我們將開始電話會議,接受提問。本次電話會議預計持續1小時。格雷格?
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Thanks, Traci. Hello, everyone, and thanks for joining us this morning. Today, I will summarize our first quarter results and discuss some of the trends in the semiconductor industry and robotics that we believe position Teradyne for long-term growth. It is useful to comprehend these longer-term growth drivers because the industries in which we operate are inherently cyclical. Sanjay will then provide greater financial detail on our first quarter results, our current outlook and additional financial information.
謝謝,Traci。大家好,感謝您今天上午加入我們。今天,我將總結我們第一季的業績,並討論我們認為有助於泰瑞達實現長期成長的半導體產業和機器人技術的一些趨勢。了解這些長期成長動力非常有用,因為我們所在的行業本質上是週期性的。之後,Sanjay 將詳細介紹我們第一季的業績、當前的展望以及其他財務資訊。
We delivered first quarter financial results above our revenue, gross margin and earnings guidance ranges. Memory and SOC delivered above our plan and showed strong performance in the quarter driven primarily by AI applications. The impact of AI on our business was seen in networking as well as in Edge AI applications like ADAS. Over 40% of our memory shipments in the first quarter were driven by AI applications.
我們第一季的財務表現超出了我們的營收、毛利率和獲利預期。記憶體和系統級晶片 (SOC) 的業績超出了我們的預期,並在人工智慧應用的推動下在本季度表現強勁。人工智慧對我們業務的影響體現在網路以及 ADAS 等邊緣人工智慧應用。第一季度,我們超過 40% 的記憶體出貨量是由人工智慧應用驅動的。
As we expected, mobile continued to be soft in the first quarter. Our robotics business delivered to planned for the third consecutive quarter as their go-to-market execution continues to improve.
正如我們預期,行動業務在第一季持續疲軟。隨著機器人業務的市場執行力持續提升,我們的機器人業務連續第三個季度實現了預期交付。
Moving on to Q2. The impact of AI on test demand we experienced in the first quarter is continuing into the second quarter, improving our outlook in memory and in compute. However, a meaningful upturn in mobile, legacy auto and industrial end markets may not occur until the 2025 time frame.
接下來是第二季。我們在第一季感受到的人工智慧對測試需求的影響將持續到第二季度,這改善了我們對記憶體和運算領域的展望。然而,移動、傳統汽車和工業終端市場的顯著改善可能要到2025年才會出現。
Looking ahead, within the semiconductor test market, we expect that the compute TAM, which includes networking in many vertically integrated producers to grow at a faster pace than previously expected. We now estimate the compute TAM in 2024 to be $1.5 billion, up from $1.4 billion. We have lowered our TAM estimates for auto, industrial and mobile markets as recovery in these end markets appears to be pushing out in time. With the combination of our stronger first half and limited visibility into the second half, our estimate of the 2024 SOC TAM remains unchanged at $3.6 billion to $4.2 billion.
展望未來,在半導體測試市場,我們預期計算領域(包括眾多垂直整合生產商的網路)的TAM成長速度將快於先前預期。我們目前估計,2024年的運算領域TAM將達到15億美元,高於先前的14億美元。由於汽車、工業和行動市場的復甦似乎正在拖延,我們下調了這些終端市場的TAM預測。鑑於上半年業績表現強勁,而下半年前景可預見性有限,我們對2024年SOC TAM的預測保持不變,仍為36億美元至42億美元。
In memory test, we are increasing our expectation TAM growth to $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion from our prior estimate of $1 billion to $1.1 billion, driven mainly by stronger demand for HBM, which we expect to grow 5x last year's level. As I'm sure you've noticed, our first quarter results and second quarter expectations are significantly above our view from January. For the full year, at the company level, we continue to expect low single-digit growth from 2023.
在記憶體測試方面,我們將TAM成長預期從先前估計的10億至11億美元上調至12億至13億美元,這主要得益於HBM需求的增強,我們預計HBM需求將比去年增長5倍。相信您已經注意到,我們第一季的業績和第二季的預期都遠高於我們1月的預期。從公司層級來看,我們預計從2023年起,全年業績將持續維持低個位數成長。
In January, we are expecting the year to be back half loaded with mobile driving that recovery. We also shared that lead times were decreasing and our visibility was limited. The sustained strength and new demand in AI-driven applications are boosting our business in the first half. However, we are being cautious on the second half on what looks like continued weakness in the mobile market. Our operations team is continuing to enable us to pursue short lead time opportunities, so it certainly feels as if there's more upside opportunity than downside risk.
一月份,我們預計今年上半年的業績將恢復正常,行動市場將推動復甦。我們也曾表示,交付週期正在縮短,而我們的預期有限。人工智慧驅動的應用持續強勁成長和新增需求正在推動我們上半年的業務成長。然而,鑑於行動市場似乎仍將持續疲軟,我們對下半年的業績持謹慎態度。我們的營運團隊正在繼續幫助我們抓住交付週期較短的機遇,因此我們感覺上行機會大於下行風險。
Now turning to robotics. The first quarter is typically quite weak for our robotics business, and this year is no exception. We were very pleased to see the team deliver on plan and are expecting sequential growth in the second quarter. We are executing a plan which we expect to deliver 10% to 20% growth in 2024. This plan includes three elements: first is SAM expansion through new offerings. Second is growing our OEM solution provider in large account channels. Third is building increased recurring revenue through service and software offerings.
現在談談機器人生意。我們的機器人業務通常第一季表現疲軟,今年也不例外。我們非常高興地看到團隊按計劃完成了任務,並預計第二季將實現環比增長。我們正在執行一項計劃,預計到2024年將實現10%至20%的成長。該計劃包含三個要素:首先是透過新產品擴展SAM業務;其次是在大客戶通路中發展我們的OEM解決方案提供者;第三是透過服務和軟體產品增加經常性收入。
In the first quarter, we made good progress in all of these areas. We executed on new SAM expanding initiatives with the announcement of UR's collaboration with NVIDIA and the new MiR1200 pallet jack. We grew our UR OEM business 58% year-on-year, and we received the single largest order in the history of MiR from a strategic customer.
第一季度,我們在所有這些領域都取得了良好的進展。我們實施了新的SAM擴展計劃,宣布優傲機器人與NVIDIA合作並推出新款MiR1200托盤搬運車。優傲機器人的OEM業務年增58%,並獲得了MiR史上最大的單筆訂單,該訂單來自一位策略客戶。
Zooming out, we see AI as the transformational secular growth driver across all of our businesses. AI applications are already having a profound impact on the test market, but we are in the very early days of the growth trend that will play out over the coming years. Today, the profit pool generated from AI is concentrated in the build-out of cloud AI capabilities, especially for training LLMs on huge data sets.
放眼未來,我們將人工智慧視為所有業務轉型的長期成長動力。人工智慧應用已對考試市場產生深遠影響,但我們正處於成長趨勢的初期,這一趨勢將在未來幾年內逐漸顯現。目前,人工智慧帶來的利潤池集中在雲端人工智慧能力的建構上,尤其是在海量資料集上訓練法學碩士(LLM)的能力。
The hardware requirements for training are massive and include general purpose fine grain compute, high bandwidth memory, dense network interconnection, and mammoth amounts of power, all of which are driving our business today. However, these LLMs will only deliver a business impact when they're used to solve problems in the real world. In other words, through inference applications, both in the cloud and at the edge.
訓練對硬體的要求非常高,包括通用的細粒度計算、高頻寬記憶體、密集的網路互連以及強大的運算能力,所有這些都是我們目前業務發展的驅動力。然而,這些 LLM 只有在用於解決現實世界中的問題時才會產生業務影響。換句話說,只有透過雲端和邊緣的推理應用程序,才能實現業務效益。
This is the key opportunity that is driving vertically integrated producers to develop their own devices and will materially affect the complexity of edge processors in automotive, industrial and mobile applications.
這是推動垂直整合生產商開發自己的設備的關鍵機遇,並將對汽車、工業和行動應用中的邊緣處理器的複雜性產生重大影響。
While our business is benefiting today from the considerable AI-driven growth in memory, networking and a few early ramps of vertically integrated producers, our greatest opportunity lies ahead as inference applications and edge AI accelerates because of our strong position with many of the leading providers of mobile and embedding computing in industrial and ADAS applications.
雖然我們的業務目前受益於記憶體、網路和一些垂直整合生產商的早期成長,但隨著推理應用和邊緣人工智慧的加速,我們最大的機會還在前方,因為我們在許多領先的行動和嵌入式運算供應商中佔據著工業和 ADAS 應用領域的強勢地位。
AI will also have a profound impact on the robotics industry. Teradyne Robotics is focused on collaborative applications, where robots need to work safely and efficiently in complex environments. AI provides an opportunity to more easily deploy robots that understand and adapt to their surroundings, making them more resilient and expanding the range of problems that they can address. With our layered approach to safety, high product quality and an open platform ecosystem, UR and MiR, are positioned as the preferred robotics platforms for the development of AI manufacturing and logistics solutions.
人工智慧也將對機器人產業產生深遠的影響。泰瑞達機器人公司專注於協作應用,這些應用要求機器人在複雜的環境中安全且有效率地工作。人工智慧使我們能夠更輕鬆地部署能夠理解和適應周圍環境的機器人,從而提高其韌性並擴展其可解決的問題範圍。憑藉我們分層的安全方案、卓越的產品品質和開放的平台生態系統,UR 和 MiR 已成為開發人工智慧製造和物流解決方案的首選機器人平台。
Last month, we announced a collaboration with NVIDIA to utilize their robotics stack on UR hardware and demonstrated the power of that collaboration at GTC with a visual inspection application. Also in the first quarter, we announced the MiR1200 pallet jack, a new AI-powered solution that uses 3D Vision to identify, pick up and deliver pallets even in dynamic and complex environments, making it a valuable resource for autonomous material handling in factories and warehouses.
上個月,我們宣布與 NVIDIA 合作,將其機器人技術堆疊應用於 UR 硬件,並在 GTC 大會上透過視覺檢測應用展示了此次合作的強大功能。此外,在第一季度,我們還發布了 MiR1200 托盤搬運車,這是一款全新的 AI 驅動解決方案,它利用 3D Vision 技術,即使在動態複雜的環境中也能識別、拾取和運送托盤,使其成為工廠和倉庫自主物料搬運的寶貴資源。
Advanced robotics is just one of the many early examples of Edge AI applications positively impacting our business. Others include advanced driver assistance systems and AI capabilities being added to premium tier mobile handsets. Edge AI is becoming a material driver of TAM growth for Semi Test, but we're in very early days. We expect AI will be an overarching growth driver for years to come in test as a primary demand driver and in robotics as a key enabler of market growth. We're positioned to benefit from this megatrend, and we're investing R&D and field resources to capture this opportunity.
先進的機器人技術只是邊緣人工智慧應用對我們業務產生積極影響的眾多早期案例之一。其他案例包括高級駕駛輔助系統和添加到高階手機中的人工智慧功能。邊緣人工智慧正成為半測試領域TAM成長的重要驅動力,但我們仍處於非常早期的階段。我們預計,未來幾年,人工智慧將成為測試領域的主要成長動力,成為主要的需求驅動因素,並將成為機器人領域市場成長的關鍵推動因素。我們已做好準備,從這一大趨勢中獲益,並正在投入研發和現場資源,以抓住這一機會。
Summing up the quarter, we're off to a strong start with Q1 results and our outlook for Q2 well ahead of our view just 3 months ago. The strength and test is focused on cloud and edge AI applications, while other parts of the semiconductor industry work through inventory. Calling the end of these corrections is a challenge. So we're being cautious about our second half outlook. That said, our flexible operations model will enable us to serve upside demand. We expect that industrial, automotive and mobile will rebound from their current low levels and entirely new demand drivers like AI are already contributing to our Test business. The industry's increase in WFE spend in 2024 and 2025 will drive unit volume and device complexity growth, reinforcing our confidence in our midterm outlook.
總結本季度,我們第一季的業績表現強勁,我們對第二季度的展望也遠超三個月前的預期。目前的優勢和測試主要集中在雲端和邊緣AI應用上,而半導體產業的其他部分則在透過庫存進行生產。預測這些調整的結束是一個挑戰。因此,我們對下半年的前景持謹慎態度。即便如此,我們靈活的營運模式將使我們能夠滿足上行需求。我們預計工業、汽車和行動市場將從目前的低位反彈,而像AI這樣的全新需求驅動因素已經為我們的測試業務做出了貢獻。 2024年和2025年,該產業在WFE支出方面的成長將推動單位產量和設備複雜度的成長,這增強了我們對中期前景的信心。
And with that, I'll turn the call over to Sanjay. Sanjay?
說完這些,我會把電話轉給桑傑。桑傑?
Sanjay Mehta - CFO, VP & Treasurer
Sanjay Mehta - CFO, VP & Treasurer
Thank you, Greg. Good morning, everyone. Today, I'll cover the financial summary of Q1, provide our Q2 outlook and full year planning assumptions. Now to Q1. First quarter sales were $600 million, which was $10 million above the high end of our guidance with non-GAAP EPS of $0.51, which was above the high end of our guidance of $0.38. Non-GAAP gross margins were 56.6%, above our guidance due to favorable product mix, higher volumes and improved operational efficiencies. Non-GAAP operating expenses were $251 million, both flat year-over-year and up slightly compared to our fourth quarter. Non-GAAP operating profit was approximately 15%.
謝謝,格雷格。大家早安。今天,我將介紹第一季的財務摘要,並提供我們對第二季的展望和全年計畫的假設。現在談談第一季。第一季銷售額為6億美元,比我們預期的上限高出1,000萬美元;非公認會計準則每股收益為0.51美元,高於我們預期的上限0.38美元。非公認會計準則毛利率為56.6%,高於我們的預期,這得益於良好的產品組合、更高的銷售量和更高的營運效率。非公認會計準則營運費用為2.51億美元,與去年同期持平,與第四季相比略有成長。非公認會計準則營運利潤約為15%。
Turning to our revenue breakdown in Q1. Semi Test revenue for the quarter was $412 million, with SOC revenue contributing $302 million and memory, $110 million. In memory, our sales were strongest in DRAM as AI-driven demand remains strong. Test for HBM is being prioritized by our customers, and we are seeing customers transition capital spending for testers away from flash to DRAM, in part due to HBM and the return of capacity adds and other DRAM test.
回顧我們第一季的收入組成。本季半測試業務收入為4.12億美元,其中SOC收入貢獻3.02億美元,內存收入貢獻1.1億美元。在記憶體領域,由於人工智慧驅動的需求依然強勁,DRAM的銷售表現最為強勁。客戶優先考慮HBM測試,並且我們看到客戶正在將測試設備的資本支出從快閃記憶體轉向DRAM,部分原因是HBM以及產能增加和其他DRAM測試的回歸。
Historically, we've seen split between flash and DRAM markets be more balanced. In System Test group, Q1 revenue was $75 million, with $23 million in storage test on low SLT and HDD demand. Recall, SLT has high exposure to the smartphone market. And even as HDD end markets begin to recover, tester capacity utilization rates remain low. In Wireless Test, revenue was $25 million in Q1, reflecting continued weakness in PC and mobile markets. In Q2, we expect wireless test to improve due to gaming end market and are now beginning to see the ramp of WiFi 7.
從歷史上看,我們看到快閃記憶體和 DRAM 市場的分化更加均衡。系統測試部門第一季營收為 7,500 萬美元,其中儲存測試收入為 2,300 萬美元,原因是 SLT 和 HDD 需求較低。需要注意的是,SLT 在智慧型手機市場的曝光率很高。即使 HDD 終端市場開始復甦,測試設備的產能利用率仍然很低。無線測試部門第一季營收為 2,500 萬美元,反映出 PC 和行動市場持續疲軟。我們預計第二季無線測試收入將因遊戲終端市場而有所改善,現在 WiFi 7 正在逐漸興起。
Now to robotics. Revenue was $88 million as planned with UR contributing $68 million and MiR, $20 million. Shifting to some cash metrics. At a company level, our free cash flow was an outflow of $37 million in the quarter. We typically consume cash in the first quarter as we pay taxes and variable employee compensation. We repurchased $22 million of shares in the quarter and paid $18 million in dividends. We ended the quarter with $871 million in cash and marketable securities.
現在談談機器人技術。營收按計畫達到8,800萬美元,其中UR貢獻了6,800萬美元,MiR貢獻了2,000萬美元。轉向一些現金指標。在公司層面,本季我們的自由現金流出3,700萬美元。我們通常在第一季消耗現金,用於支付稅款和浮動員工薪資。我們在本季回購了2,200萬美元的股票,並支付了1,800萬美元的股利。本季末,我們持有8.71億美元的現金和有價證券。
Some other financial information in Q1. We had one 10% customer in the quarter. The tax rate, excluding discrete items for the fourth quarter was 15% on a GAAP basis and 15.5% on a non-GAAP basis. In Q1, we incurred an FX loss on the fair value of the currency exchange hedge related to the expected investment in Technoprobe. This drove a larger than typical variance between our GAAP and non-GAAP earnings in the quarter.
第一季的其他一些財務資訊。本季我們有一位客戶,稅率為10%。第四季度,扣除獨立項目後的稅率(以美國通用會計準則計算)為15%,以非美國通用會計準則計算為15.5%。第一季度,我們因預期投資Technoprobe而產生的外匯對沖公允價值損失。這導致本季我們以美國通用會計準則和非美國通用會計準則計算的收益差異大於正常水準。
Turning to our current operational environment. In Semi Test, supply lead times continue to decline as supply versus demand is more in line. Our lead times continue to hold at 1 to 2 quarters. However, in some cases, we have been able to service demand inside these lead times. As a result, our customers are moving back towards historical buying patterns with shorter lead times, thus yielding lower second half 2024 visibility consistent with the pre-pandemic environment. Robotics remains a quick turns business and our execution continues to deliver to these market conditions.
談談我們當前的營運環境。在半測試領域,由於供需更加趨於一致,供應交付週期持續縮短。我們的交付週期持續維持在1至2季。然而,在某些情況下,我們能夠在這些交付週期中滿足需求。因此,我們的客戶正在回歸歷史性的採購模式,交付週期縮短,從而導致2024年下半年的可見度下降,與疫情前的情況一致。機器人技術仍然是一個快速週轉的業務,我們的執行力將繼續適應當前的市場環境。
Now turning to our outlook for Q2. Q2 sales are expected to be between $665 million and $725 million with non-GAAP EPS in a range of $0.64 to $0.84 and 162 million diluted shares. The second quarter guidance excludes the amortization of acquired intangibles and the anticipated gain on the expected sale of DIS, which is $0.29 in our GAAP forecast.
現在談談我們對第二季的展望。預計第二季銷售額在 6.65 億美元至 7.25 億美元之間,非 GAAP 每股收益在 0.64 美元至 0.84 美元之間,稀釋後每股收益為 1.62 億股。第二季業績指引不包括已收購無形資產的攤銷以及預期出售獨立存款保險計劃 (DIS) 的收益(根據我們的 GAAP 預測,該收益為 0.29 美元)。
Some color around the forecasted increase to Q2 revenue versus our January view. The increase is driven by our Semi Test business where ADAS, compute networking and HBM demand has strengthened. As noted, this AI strength has continued into the second quarter and some orders initially scheduled for shipment in the third quarter have moved into the second quarter, improving our near-term outlook. Second quarter gross margins are estimated at 57% to 58%. OpEx is expected to run at 36% to 39% of second quarter sales, up modestly from Q1. Non-GAAP operating profit rate at the midpoint of our second quarter guidance is 20%.
與我們一月份的預測相比,第二季營收成長預測略有不同。這一成長主要得益於我們的半測試業務,該業務對 ADAS、計算網路和 HBM 的需求有所增強。如前所述,這種 AI 成長勢頭延續到了第二季度,一些原定於第三季度發貨的訂單已移至第二季度,這改善了我們的短期前景。第二季毛利率預計為 57% 至 58%。預計營運支出將佔第二季銷售額的 36% 至 39%,較第一季略有上升。我們第二季指引中點的非 GAAP 營業利潤率為 20%。
A few points to assist you in modeling the rest of the year. I'll start with a few more details about the market estimates Greg provided. While our view of the SOC TAM is unchanged in total, under the cover, there are some puts and takes. Compute is up approximately $100 million, while mobile, auto and industrial are down a little over $100 million in aggregate. In anticipation of questions, let me provide the midpoint of our estimates by segment. Compute, $1.5 billion; mobile, $0.9 billion; auto MCU, $0.5 billion; Industrial, $0.3 billion; and service, $0.7 billion, summing up to $3.9 billion for SOC.
有幾點可以幫助您預測今年剩餘時間的走勢。首先,我將詳細介紹Greg所提供的市場估值。雖然我們對SOC TAM的預期總體上沒有變化,但在幕後,還是有一些利弊。計算領域成長了約1億美元,而行動、汽車和工業領域總計下降了略高於1億美元。為了因應大家的提問,我先按細分市場提供我們估值的中位數。計算領域,15億美元;移動領域,9億美元;汽車MCU領域,5億美元;工業領域,3億美元;服務領域,7億美元,SOC領域總計39億美元。
You'll notice the aggregate decline change has been allocated to the Industrial segment. Our memory estimate has increased $200 million with the midpoint of $1.25 billion. Please note, our final estimate for the 2023 SOC TAM is $4 billion, up $100 million in the Compute segment from our January view.
您會注意到,總下降幅度已分配給工業領域。我們對記憶體的預估增加了2億美元,中位數為12.5億美元。請注意,我們對2023年SOC TAM的最終預估為40億美元,計算領域的預估較我們1月的預測增加了1億美元。
Back to revenue. We expect Q3 sales to be similar to Q2 and Q4 to improve from there. Note that our flattish sequential growth in Q3 does not assume any revenue from DIS. Excluding the impact of the anticipated divestiture, we would expect revenue to grow sequentially in Q3. Our expectation for revenue distribution for the full year is now less back half weighted than our view in January. We currently expect around 47% of the company revenue to be in the first half and 53% in the second half. We expect full year revenue to grow in the low single-digit range compared to 2023.
回到收入問題。我們預計第三季銷售額將與第二季持平,第四季將在此基礎上有所改善。需要注意的是,我們第三季環比成長持平的預測並未假設來自DIS的任何收入。剔除預期資產剝離的影響,我們預期第三季營收將季增。我們對全年所得分配的預期目前比1月的預測有所降低。我們目前預計公司約47%的營收將來自上半年,53%的營收將來自下半年。我們預計全年收入將比2023年成長低個位數。
Now to gross margins. Gross margins are expected to continue to improve as we progress through the year and should be at our target gross margin model for the fourth quarter. Full year gross margins will likely be in the 58% to 59% range unchanged from our January outlook.
現在談談毛利率。預計毛利率將在今年持續改善,並有望達到我們第四季的目標毛利率模型。全年毛利率預計在58%至59%之間,與我們1月的預測持平。
Regarding OpEx for the full year. We expect full year 2024 OpEx to grow 5% to 7%, consistent with prior guide as we continue to make engineering and go-to-market investments. Our GAAP and non-GAAP tax rate, excluding discrete items, are forecasted to be 15% to 15.5%, respectively, in 2024.
關於全年營運支出。我們預計2024年全年營運支出將成長5%至7%,與先前的預期一致,因為我們將繼續進行工程和市場推廣方面的投資。我們預計2024年GAAP和非GAAP稅率(不包括獨立項目)分別為15%至15.5%。
A quick update on our previously announced strategic partnership with Technoprobe. As a reminder, the agreement has several key components. First, Technoprobe will purchase Teradyne's DIS business, which provides advanced interfaces that connect our testers to customers' chips for test. Second, Teradyne will make an equity investment in Technoprobe, acquiring 10% of the company. Third, Teradyne and Technoprobe will work together on a series of projects to expand the performance of semiconductor device interfaces to enable customers to realize the full performance of our test systems. We continue to expect the transactions to close in the second quarter.
我們先前宣布與 Technoprobe 建立策略合作夥伴關係,現簡單更新。需要提醒的是,該協定包含幾個關鍵部分。首先,Technoprobe 將收購 Teradyne 的 DIS 業務,該業務提供先進的接口,用於將我們的測試儀連接到客戶的晶片進行測試。其次,Teradyne 將對 Technoprobe 進行股權投資,收購其 10% 的股份。第三,Teradyne 和 Technoprobe 將合作一系列項目,以擴展半導體裝置介面的效能,使客戶能夠充分發揮我們測試系統的效能。我們預計交易將在第二季完成。
DIS revenue contribution for the first quarter was approximately $21 million. Post closing, our cash position will decline as the transaction is expected to consume an estimated $440 million of net cash. We will continue to limit our share buybacks in 2024 to an amount necessary to offset dilutions from equity compensation and our employee share purchase program in order to build cash back to a minimum goal of $800 million.
第一季度,DIS 的營收貢獻約為 2,100 萬美元。交易完成後,我們的現金狀況將下降,因為預計這筆交易將消耗約 4.4 億美元的淨現金。我們將繼續限制 2024 年的股票回購規模,使其達到足以抵銷股權薪酬和員工持股計畫稀釋的水平,從而將現金回流至少達到 8 億美元的目標。
Summing up, we delivered sales and earnings above the high end of our guidance range as memory and networking exceeded our plan in Semi Test, mainly driven by AI. The mobile, industrial and legacy auto markets remain soft. Our robotics team delivered to plan for the third consecutive quarter, as we continue to execute our new product development and go-to-market strategies. Overall, visibility beyond the second quarter is limited, given the increased level of turns business in Semi Test. Our first quarter performance and the improvement in our second quarter outlook elevates our confidence for the year. Midterm fundamentals remain intact, yielding continued optimism beyond 2024.
總而言之,由於記憶體和網路業務在半測試階段的業績超出預期(這主要得益於人工智慧的推動),我們的銷售額和收益都超出了預期範圍的上限。行動、工業和傳統汽車市場仍然疲軟。隨著我們繼續執行新產品開發和市場推廣策略,我們的機器人團隊連續第三個季度實現了預期業績。總體而言,鑑於半測試業務的周轉率有所提高,第二季之後的可預見性有限。我們第一季的業績以及第二季前景的改善增強了我們對今年的信心。中期基本面依然穩健,對2024年以後的前景仍持樂觀態度。
With that, I'll turn the call back to Traci. Traci?
這樣,我就把電話轉回給 Traci。 Traci?
Traci Tsuchiguchi
Traci Tsuchiguchi
Thanks. We will go ahead with questions.
謝謝。我們繼續提問。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) The first question comes from the line of Mehdi Hosseini with SIG.
(操作員指示)第一個問題來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。
Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst
Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst
Yes. Two follow-up. It seems to me that despite the fact that you highlighted mobile as an area of weakness, it had already been dialed into your January guide or commentary for the full year. Would that be fair?
是的。還有兩個後續問題。在我看來,儘管您強調行動領域是我們的弱點,但它已經體現在您的一月份業績指引或全年業績評論中了。這樣公平嗎?
Sanjay Mehta - CFO, VP & Treasurer
Sanjay Mehta - CFO, VP & Treasurer
Yes, it would, Mehdi.
是的,梅赫迪。
Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst
Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst
Okay. And this brings up what I want to really ask you. When I look at TSMC, they just announced their annual report, and obviously, Apple's mix of revenue went up. And I'm using that as a kind of trying to better understand the dynamics. So if TSMC is running or generating more revenues, that means more chips for that particular customer is coming out. And at some point, utilization rate for those testers are going to hit that 85%, 90% threshold. And I'm trying to look beyond the next couple of quarters.
好的。這引出了我真正想問您的問題。我關注台積電,他們剛發布了年報,顯然蘋果的收入組成有所上升。我利用這一點來更好地了解其動態。如果台積電的營運收入增加或創造了更多收入,就意味著該特定客戶將生產更多晶片。到某個時候,這些測試人員的利用率將達到 85% 或 90% 的門檻。我正在努力展望未來幾個季度之後的情況。
Are you also thinking that at some point in the next 2 to 4 quarters, those utilization rates are going to get to the point where even if that particular customer of TSM were to continue with kind of bifurcation of their technology node, they would still have to come back to the market and buy more testers?
您是否還認為,在未來 2 到 4 個季度的某個時候,這些利用率將達到這樣的水平:即使 TSM 的特定客戶繼續分叉其技術節點,他們仍然必須回到市場併購買更多的測試儀?
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Mehdi, this is Greg. I think you've got it right that utilization is continuing to increase. The equipment that is in place is being used quite efficiently through the year. So the loading is relatively constant. And we definitely believe that it's a matter of when, not if there's going to be a need for significant additional capacity to support that kind of product line.
Mehdi,我是Greg。我認為你說得對,利用率正在持續上升。現有設備全年都得到了相當高效的利用。因此,負荷相對穩定。我們堅信,這只是時間問題,而不是是否需要大幅增加產能來支持這類產品線的問題。
Operator
Operator
Next question comes from the line of Vivek Arya with Bank of America Securities.
下一個問題來自美國銀行證券的 Vivek Arya。
Vivek Arya - MD in Equity Research & Senior Semiconductor Analyst
Vivek Arya - MD in Equity Research & Senior Semiconductor Analyst
On the compute TAM, the $1.5 billion, I think that's up roughly 15% from last year. When I look at the size of the accelerator market this year, it's supposed to double. So is that one kind of high-level way to look at how much the accelerator market is growing versus how much your tester compute TAM is growing? Or is there a different way? So for example if, let's say, the accelerated market grows 30% next year, what does that imply for your compute TAM?
計算領域的潛在市場規模(TAM)方面,15億美元,我認為比去年增長了約15%。我預計今年加速器市場的規模會翻倍。那麼,這是一種比較高階的方式來衡量加速器市場的成長速度,以及測試儀計算領域TAM的成長速度嗎?或者有其他方法嗎?例如,假設加速器市場明年成長30%,這對你的運算領域TAM意味著什麼?
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Interesting question. Thinking about the TAM, that is the overall size of the market, so what we would get, what our competitor would get. And the size of the accelerator market has gone up a lot this year. Most of the testers to support this year's revenue in accelerators was put in place last year. So if the TAM that was supported last year supporting that sort of big growth that we've seen in the end market this year, what's going to happen this year, the $1.5 billion that we talked about is going to support a significant increase again next year.
這個問題很有意思。想想TAM,也就是市場的整體規模,也就是我們能得到什麼,我們的競爭對手又能得到什麼。今年加速器市場的規模成長了很多。支撐今年加速器收入的大部分測試人員去年就到位了。所以,如果去年支撐的TAM支撐了我們今年在終端市場看到的那種大幅成長,那麼今年會發生什麼事?我們之前談到的15億美元,明年會再次支撐一個顯著的成長。
And this year, the primary beneficiary in terms of that end market is NVIDIA. What we're seeing now is that we are having some vertically integrated producers start to have significant ramps and they're already loading significant numbers of testers. The TAM in 2024 for compute is actually a little bit constrained below what it would otherwise be because these new entrants are actually able to work with their OSAT partners and convert idle testers that would have been in mobile into the compute space.
今年,就終端市場而言,主要受益者是英偉達。我們現在看到的是,一些垂直整合的生產商開始大幅提升產能,並且已經裝載了大量測試設備。 2024 年計算領域的 TAM 實際上略低於原本的水平,因為這些新進入者實際上能夠與 OSAT 合作夥伴合作,將原本在行動領域的閒置測試設備轉移到計算領域。
So right now, the loading of compute testers is higher than it was than what you'd see in terms of the buys in the market. As mobile starts to come back, that means that there's less idle capacity to fill. It also means that the compute market is going to be translated into more direct buys.
因此,目前計算測試人員的負載比以往更高,而市場購買量也更高。隨著行動裝置的回歸,這意味著需要填補的閒置產能會減少。這也意味著計算市場將轉化為更多的直接購買。
Sanjay Mehta - CFO, VP & Treasurer
Sanjay Mehta - CFO, VP & Treasurer
And if I could add just a quick comment. In my prepared remarks, we noted that the -- our estimate was revised for 2023 for the compute market. When I do the math of our midpoint of $1.5 billion in '24 versus our old, you do get a 15% increase, but we revised that in my prepared remarks, I noted to $1.4 billion. So I think the growth is 7% versus 15%. I just wanted to point that out.
我想補充一點。在我的準備好的演講稿中,我們提到了我們對2023年計算市場的預測進行了修訂。當我計算2024年15億美元的中位數與先前的預測時,確實增加了15%,但我們在準備好的發言稿中將其修訂為14億美元。所以我認為成長率是7%,而不是15%。我只是想指出這一點。
Vivek Arya - MD in Equity Research & Senior Semiconductor Analyst
Vivek Arya - MD in Equity Research & Senior Semiconductor Analyst
And just a quick follow-up. A number of your WFE peers have started to see the benefits of 2-nanometer and gate-all-around. I'm wondering what does that mean for Teradyne? When will you start to see those benefits? And what does that mean for tester intensity? I assume that's more '25 or '26. Any color around that would be very useful.
再簡單問一下。你們許多WFE同行已經開始看到2奈米和環柵技術的優勢。我想知道這對泰瑞達意味著什麼?你們什麼時候才能看到這些優勢?這對測試強度意味著什麼?我估計大概在25或26年左右。任何圍繞這個點的顏色都非常有用。
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Sure. So we are expecting to see some testers being used to support the engineering work in early parts in 2-nanometer probably towards the end of 2025. We don't expect any volume associated with 2-nanometer gate-all-around until 2026. And the way that we're looking at that right now is that there's nothing particularly idiosyncratic about that node in terms of tester demand.
當然。所以我們預計大概在2025年底,一些測試儀將被用來支援2奈米製程早期階段的工程工作。我們預計2奈米全柵製程要到2026年才會量產。目前我們對此的看法是,就測試儀需求而言,該節點並沒有什麼特別之處。
So we're thinking of it primarily as an enabler to more complex parts. There are a lot of parts, for example, for cloud AI training that at this point are actually reticle limited, and so anything to allow increased complexity within the same die size is likely to be soaked up by AI. And so the faster that 2-nanometer comes online, the faster these more complex parts will be developed, and those will likely have longer test times, higher test intensity, which will drive the TAM.
因此,我們主要將其視為實現更複雜部件的助推器。例如,用於雲端AI訓練的許多零件目前實際上都受到光罩的限制,因此任何能夠在相同晶片尺寸內提升複雜性的技術都可能被AI所採用。因此,2奈米製程越快上線,這些更複雜零件的開發速度就越快,而這些零件的測試時間可能會更長,測試強度也會更高,這將推動TAM的成長。
Operator
Operator
Next question comes from the line of Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.
下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。
Toshiya Hari - MD
Toshiya Hari - MD
I had one question on memory and another one on your VIP business. On the memory side, you guys talked about a $1.25 billion TAM for '24. I was hoping you could provide a rough split between DRAM and NAND, how you're viewing the market, what the contribution could be from HBM, and if you can speak to your competitive position, your market share position within HBM, that would be helpful.
我有兩個問題,一個是關於內存,另一個是關於貴公司VIP業務。在記憶體方面,你們談到了2024年12.5億美元的TAM(潛在市場)。我希望您能大致介紹一下DRAM和NAND之間的區別,您如何看待市場,HBM(高頻寬記憶體)的貢獻是什麼,以及您能否談談貴公司在HBM領域的競爭地位和市場份額,這將會很有幫助。
Sanjay Mehta - CFO, VP & Treasurer
Sanjay Mehta - CFO, VP & Treasurer
Sure. Why don't I take the numbers, and maybe the competitive position, Greg, if you want to take? So the range that we provided was $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion, with the midpoint of $1.25 billion. And we think from a DRAM perspective, it's roughly 80% of that versus flash of 20%. Historically, I would say DRAM has been in the 40% and 50% of the overall memory market. So that's roughly the split. And then HBM we think is -- yes, we think that number is about $500 million. It's going to work upwards, but we think that number is above $500 million out of the $1.25 billion.
當然。 Greg,如果你想了解這些數字,以及競爭地位,我可以告訴你嗎?我們提供的市場範圍是12億美元到13億美元,中間值是12.5億美元。我們認為從DRAM的角度來看,大約佔80%,而快閃記憶體佔20%。從歷史上看,DRAM在整個記憶體市場的市佔率大約是40%到50%。所以大致就是這樣的。然後,我們認為HBM——是的,我們認為這個數字大約是5億美元。它也會繼續成長,但我們認為在12.5億美元中,這個數字應該超過5億美元。
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
So in terms of competitive position, the share patterns that have existed for a few years are persisting. We have very high share in flash final test, we have strong share position in DRAM final test and we have a lower share position in both flat wafer sort and DRAM wafer sort. So what's happening in the memory market? Like last year, there was a lot of technology-driven buys that were pushing final test purchases. This year, the spark is coming back to the memory market, and that is driving the need for more capacity, and that is driving wafer sort purchases.
因此,就競爭地位而言,幾年來一直存在的份額模式仍在持續。我們在快閃記憶體最終測試中擁有很高的份額,在DRAM最終測試中擁有強大的份額,而在平面晶圓測試和DRAM晶圓測試中的份額都較低。那麼,記憶體市場的情況如何呢?與去年一樣,許多技術驅動的採購推動了最終測試採購。今年,記憶體市場重新煥發活力,這推動了對更大產能的需求,也推動了晶圓測試採購。
So there's no customer losses, but we are expecting to see our share come down a little bit this year as those wafer start capacity buys go in. Now the subtext underneath that is, HBM is a wafer-level technology, so all of the tests for HBM falls into that wafer sort space. And in HBM, last year, we had about 50% of the test TAM for HBM. This year, we're expecting that, that is going to come down modestly in terms of share. Our revenue is going to be up significantly, but the market is 5x bigger. So our share is probably going to float down a little bit as people begin to tool up next generation for the volume expansion in HBM.
所以沒有客戶流失,但隨著晶圓產能的增加,我們預計今年的市佔率會略有下降。這背後的潛台詞是,HBM 是一種晶圓級技術,所以所有 HBM 的測試都屬於晶圓分類領域。去年,我們在 HBM 測試領域佔了約 50% 的份額。我們預計今年的份額會小幅下降。我們的收入將大幅成長,但市場規模是現在的 5 倍。因此,隨著人們開始為 HBM 的容量擴張而準備下一代設備,我們的份額可能會略有下降。
At the same time, we think that our opportunities for share gain in terms of new test insertions for HBM are quite good. And so we're projecting that we're going to be penetrating new customers and new test steps for that this year.
同時,我們認為在HBM新測試方面,我們有很大機會提升市場佔有率。因此,我們預計今年將開拓新客戶,並推出新的測試步驟。
Toshiya Hari - MD
Toshiya Hari - MD
Great. And then as my follow-up on the VIP side, we've all seen quite a few announcements from the Googles, the Amazons, the Metas of the world in terms of what they're working on. I'm curious when those announcements kind of translate into revenue for you guys. I know it takes time for those projects to ramp. But I think you have pretty good visibility as a test provider, you're probably pulled into those projects early. So is it a '25 dynamic, is it '26? And how should we think about that contribution as some of those projects ramp?
太好了。接下來,作為我對 VIP 方面的後續提問,我們已經看到谷歌、亞馬遜、Metas 等公司發布了不少關於他們正在開發的項目的公告。我很好奇這些公告何時能轉化為你們的收入。我知道這些項目的加速發展需要時間。但我認為身為測試提供者,你們的曝光度相當高,很可能很早就參與了這些專案。那麼,這是 2025 年的動態,還是 2026 年的動態呢?隨著一些專案的加速發展,我們該如何看待你們的貢獻?
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Well, from a vertically integrated producer perspective, it really kind of started back in like 2022, 2023. In 2024, like right now, there are hundreds of testers that are being used to test VIP source parts for us. And probably a similar number from our competitor. So it has happened. The thing that hasn't happened because of the -- the low utilization driven by the mobile slowdown, that hasn't translated into as much new tester purchases as we would have expected in a stronger market.
嗯,從垂直整合生產商的角度來看,這種情況其實始於2022年或2023年。到2024年,也就是現在,我們有數百名測試人員用來測試VIP來源元件。我們的競爭對手可能也有類似數量的測試人員。所以這種情況已經發生了。由於行動市場放緩導致利用率低,導致新測試人員的採購量沒有像我們在強勁市場中預期的那麼多。
But we have multiple VIP sockets that are loading more than 50 testers each, and we have a pipeline of new design starts that we are plan of record for that will stretch out all the way into 2026. So this is real. It's happening now, but the impact on our financial results has been muted by the low utilization because of the mobile downturn.
但我們有多個VIP插槽,每個插槽都裝載超過50台測試儀,而且我們還有一系列新設計的啟動計劃,這些計劃將持續到2026年。所以這是真的。現在正在發生,但由於行動市場低迷導致利用率低,這對我們財務表現的影響較小。
Operator
Operator
Next question comes from the line of C.J. Muse with Cantor Fitzgerald.
下一個問題來自 Cantor Fitzgerald 的 C.J. Muse。
Christopher James Muse - Senior MD & Semiconductor Research Analyst
Christopher James Muse - Senior MD & Semiconductor Research Analyst
Yes. I guess first question, Greg, in your prepared remarks, you talked about cautiousness on the second half, though seeing better upside opportunity than downside risk. So I was hoping to dig deeper into that. If you could share what would be the end markets that could be upward (inaudible) as we progress through the year.
是的。我想第一個問題,格雷格,您在準備好的發言中提到了對下半年的謹慎態度,儘管您認為上行機會大於下行風險。所以我想深入探討一下這個問題。您能否分享一下,隨著今年的推進,哪些終端市場可能會上漲(聽不清楚)。
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
So we have limited visibility, so just bear in mind that I'm going into the realm of speculation here. The things that could drive a higher second half is the leading edge of some sort of a recovery in mobile. Right now, we have a pretty low baseline baked into our plan. So essentially any capacity shortfalls would immediately turn into business.
所以我們的預見有限,請記住,我這裡只是在猜測。推動下半年業績上漲的因素是行動領域某種程度的復甦。目前,我們的計劃中設定的基線相當低。因此,任何容量短缺都會立即轉化為業務。
And then the other is, we've seen such a dramatic strengthening in the Compute segment with very short lead times in Q1. So that's what really drove our increased outlook for Q2. So we didn't see it coming. We had hints that it was coming. We thought it would be further out and smaller. It has come in bigger and faster than we expected. If that trend were to continue, then we'd see continued strengthening in the compute space, and that's another thing that could drive a second half up.
另一個原因是,我們在第一季看到運算領域出現如此顯著的成長,而且交貨週期非常短。這才是我們上調第二季業績預期的真正原因。我們之前並沒有預料到這種情況。我們之前有跡象表明這種情況即將發生。我們原以為它會持續更久、規模更小。但它的規模和速度都超出了我們的預期。如果這種趨勢持續下去,我們將看到運算領域持續成長,而這可能會推動下半年業績上漲。
The other way to think about that is we don't really think that industrial and automotive is going to significantly strengthen in the year. That's more of a 2025 thing.
另一種思考方式是,我們並不認為工業和汽車產業在今年會顯著增強。這更像是2025年的事。
Christopher James Muse - Senior MD & Semiconductor Research Analyst
Christopher James Muse - Senior MD & Semiconductor Research Analyst
Very helpful. As a follow-up, you talked briefly on Edge AI. And so I was curious to hear your thoughts on how you see that play out in the smartphone arena. It sounds like this is a year where everyone is trying to see what sticks and what use cases and then maybe next year is the year. Would love to hear whether you agree with that assessment? When you think the earliest we could see increased content to support Edge AI and smartphones? And how you see that playing out and impact Teradyne's test business?
非常有幫助。作為後續,您簡要地談到了邊緣人工智慧 (Edge AI)。因此,我很好奇想聽聽您對邊緣人工智慧在智慧型手機領域發展的看法。聽起來,今年每個人都在嘗試探索哪些技術能持續發展,有哪些用例,也許明年就是關鍵的一年。我很想知道您是否同意這種看法?您認為最早什麼時候我們能看到更多支援邊緣人工智慧和智慧型手機的內容?您如何看待這種發展以及對泰瑞達測試業務的影響?
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Yes. So that's a great question. We've been having very rich discussions internally about this to try and figure out when you consider a smartphone to be AI-enabled. And we're thinking about it in terms of the complexity of the processor that goes into the phone. There have been neural processing units and AI features in phones for years. But now, the AI opportunity, the edge AI opportunity is driving things towards pushing the amount of silicon area used for AI up towards like 50% or 1/3 of the silicon area going into that.
是的。這是一個很好的問題。我們內部就此進行了非常深入的討論,試圖弄清楚何時才能將智慧型手機定義為支援AI。我們正在從手機處理器的複雜性角度來考慮這個問題。多年來,手機中一直存在神經處理單元和AI功能。但現在,AI機遇,邊緣AI機遇,正在推動用於AI的矽片面積達到用於AI的矽片面積的50%或1/3。
So those types of processors are just starting to hit the market now at the premium tier. And I think we've got about a year of people trying to figure out what kind of customer features will actually be compelling using that. And right now, there aren't that many of them. I think that, that's what's going to happen during the rest of 2024, that there's some premium smartphones and some people that are trying to innovate the things to do with them. I think the processer generation that's really going to start having enough power to do LLM stuff on a phone is probably the stuff that would ramp towards the end of 2025, and it would become much more mainstream in the generation of silicon coming out in '26.
所以,這類處理器現在才剛開始在高階市場上市。我想,人們大概花了一年時間去探索,什麼樣的客戶功能才能真正吸引人。目前,這類處理器還不多。我認為,2024年剩餘時間裡,這種情況將會持續下去,屆時將會出現一些高階智慧型手機,有些人也會嘗試創新與之相關的功能。我認為,真正有能力在手機上實現LLM(邏輯推理能力)功能的處理器,很可能會在2025年底前開始普及,並在2026年推出的晶片中成為更主流的晶片。
Operator
Operator
Next question comes from the line of Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan Chase.
下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Samik Chatterjee。
Samik Chatterjee - Head of IT Hardware and Networking Equipment
Samik Chatterjee - Head of IT Hardware and Networking Equipment
Maybe just to stick with the mobile ecosystem a bit. Any sort of change in your thinking about the primary smartphone customer there? I know you've said previously, it's less than 10% is what your expectation for this year is. Just checking in terms of how much of the sort of change in 2Q or sort of thinking about the back half, any changes in how you think about the cadence of purchases from the primary customer or any change in your overall taking for the year for that customer.
也許我只是想稍微關心一下行動生態系統。您對主要智慧型手機客戶的看法有什麼改變嗎?我知道您之前說過,您對今年的預期是不到10%。我想問一下,第二季的變化有多大,或者您對下半年的預期是什麼,您對主要客戶的購買節奏的看法有什麼變化,或者您對該客戶全年總收入的看法有什麼變化。
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
I hope I caught all of your question. If I didn't, then please correct me. We don't comment about specific customers. I will share that we don't expect that our historically largest customer will be a 10% customer this year. I'll also share that we think that there is more of -- that we've gotten sort of the bottom dialed into our plan, that there's definitely more upside to downside in terms of the plan associated with mobile in general.
我希望我回答了你所有的問題。如果沒有,請指正。我們不評論具體客戶。我想說的是,我們預計今年我們史上最大的客戶不會占到10%。我還想說的是,我們認為我們的計劃已經觸底,就行動套餐而言,總體而言,它肯定有更大的上漲空間和下跌空間。
Samik Chatterjee - Head of IT Hardware and Networking Equipment
Samik Chatterjee - Head of IT Hardware and Networking Equipment
Got it. And you got that question. So for my follow-up, if I can ask on robotics. Can you give us some sense of how you're thinking about first half versus second half there? And what's the -- right now, any updated thinking on profitability for the year for the business? How do you track in 1Q and sort of how you're thinking about the full year for robotics.
明白了。你問的正是這個問題。接下來我想問關於機器人技術的問題。能否談談你對上半年和下半年的展望?目前,你對今年機器人業務的獲利能力有什麼最新的看法?你如何追蹤第一季的業績?你對全年機器人業務的展望如何?
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
So I'll start off with sort of a qualitative answer in terms of the drivers, but then I'll pass it off to Sanjay to give you more of the precise split first half, second half and the profitability. So what's going on right now is we have a plan for the year that's going to be essentially sequentially growing quarter by quarter. And the reason that the plan is laid out that way is because there are new growth drivers that are coming online throughout the year. There are drivers that are in place from last year in Q1, that's specifically the UR20 and UR30, the heavy payload cobots.
所以,我先從驅動因素方面做一個定性的回答,然後交給Sanjay,他會更詳細地說明上半年、下半年以及獲利能力的劃分。目前的情況是,我們制定了年度計劃,基本上是逐季度環比增長。我們之所以這樣安排計劃,是因為全年都會出現新的成長動力。有些驅動因素從去年第一季就開始出現了,具體來說是UR20和UR30,也就是重型協作機器人。
In Q1, we had the announcement of the MiR1200 pallet jack. That's going to start really impacting revenue in the back half, primarily in the fourth quarter, but we're already taking orders. We're building backlog for that product. We also announced the collaboration with NVIDIA. That's going to really drive business through our OEM solution channel. So we're going to be providing the platform tools to that channel, so that they can create stuff that goes to market. So that's stuff that will also be back half loaded.
第一季度,我們發布了 MiR1200 托盤搬運車。這款產品將在下半年,主要是第四季度,開始對收入產生實質影響,但我們已經開始接訂單,正在累積該產品的訂單。我們也宣布了與 NVIDIA 的合作。這將真正推動我們 OEM 解決方案管道的業務成長。因此,我們將為該管道提供平台工具,以便他們能夠開發並投放市場的產品。所以,這些產品的交付量也將在下半年達到一半。
The other thing that's driving through the year is we are continuing to build our OEM channel and our large accounts channel. So those are things that we started. We started OEMs back in '22, we started large accounts in '23, and they have a significant amount of gestation time before they deliver revenue. We're right at the point where OEMs are starting to really click. We talked about the 58% year-on-year increase in that space. I'm expecting to see growth above the aggregate growth for large accounts in 2024. So that's going to be a growth driver through the end of the year.
今年的另一個推動力是我們將繼續建立OEM通路和大客戶通路。這些都是我們著手開展的業務。我們在2022年就啟動了OEM管道,在2023年啟動了大客戶管道,這些管道在產生收入之前需要相當長的醞釀期。我們正處於OEM頻道真正開始發力的階段。我們之前提到過該通路年增58%。我預計到2024年,大客戶的成長率將超過總成長率。因此,到今年年底,這將成為我們成長的動力。
So with that, I'll pass it off to Sanjay to give you sort of the precise breakdowns.
因此,我將把它交給 Sanjay,讓他給你精確的細分。
Sanjay Mehta - CFO, VP & Treasurer
Sanjay Mehta - CFO, VP & Treasurer
So roughly the first half of the year -- well, first, as Greg noted, we expect to grow sequentially in Q2, and we expect to grow throughout the year for the reasons Greg just noted. But in the first half, we have 42%-ish plus or minus, and then 58% in the back half of the year. We do expect to be profitable this year. I would say, over the year, and I would say that, that would be single-digit profitability. I will comment, I think you asked about Q1. We were not profitable just given the seasonality of the quarter. That should give you the context, I think that you asked.
所以大致來說,今年上半年——首先,正如格雷格所說,我們預計第二季將環比增長,並且由於格雷格剛才提到的原因,我們預計全年都會增長。但上半年我們的獲利在42%左右,下半年則為58%。我們確實預計今年會獲利。我想說,全年獲利能力應該個位數。我想補充一下,我想你問的是第一季的情況。由於季度的季節性因素,我們並沒有獲利。我想這應該能讓你了解一下具體情況。
Operator
Operator
Next question comes from the line of Krish Sankar with TD Cohen.
下一個問題來自 TD Cohen 的 Krish Sankar。
Krish Sankar - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Krish Sankar - MD & Senior Research Analyst
I had a couple of them. First one, on the memory side, how much of your memory revenues were from HBM in the March quarter. And I think Sanjay, you mentioned HBM revenues could grow 5x this year. I'm kind of curious, are you over-indexed to 1 customer, because my understanding is of the 3 HBM customers, 1 of them in sources, and within other 2, can you just talk a little bit about your share position there? Then I have a follow-up.
我有幾個問題。首先,在記憶體方面,你們3月季度的記憶體收入中有多少來自HBM? Sanjay,你提到HBM的營收今年可能會成長5倍。我有點好奇,你們是不是過度依賴一個客戶?據我了解,你們有3個HBM客戶,其中一個是消息來源,另外兩個是其他客戶。你能不能稍微談談你們在這方面的份額?然後我還有一個後續問題。
Sanjay Mehta - CFO, VP & Treasurer
Sanjay Mehta - CFO, VP & Treasurer
I'll take the first one on the memory in the quarter. Yes. So I want to say roughly about 45% of the memory revenue that we had was tied in the first quarter to HBM.
我首先要問的是本季的記憶體業務。是的。我想說的是,我們第一季大約 45% 的記憶體收入與 HBM 相關。
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Yes. So Krish, one quick comment. The 5x comment about HBM was referring to the market size for HBM memory. So last year was about $100 million of TAM for HBM. This year, we think it's about $500 million worth of TAM for HBM. Our revenue is not going to go up by a factor of 5. It's going to go up. It's going to go up significantly. But we're not going to be able to hold sort of the 50-ish percent share of HBM that we had last year.
是的。 Krish,簡單說一下。關於HBM的5倍成長指的是HBM記憶體的市場規模。去年HBM的TAM約1億美元。今年,我們估計HBM的TAM約為5億美元。我們的營收不會成長5倍,而是會成長,而且會大幅成長。但我們無法維持去年50%左右的HBM市佔率。
Are we over indexed to one customer? Well, the entire world is significantly over-indexed to one supplier in HBM. And that certainly has been driving our results to a great degree, both last year and will continue to drive our results this year. The other suppliers that are coming online. One of them is primarily internally based for test. We don't have any of that baked into our plan, although we think that they would be better off using our equipment, we haven't convinced them of that yet. And the other supplier in this space is a great customer of ours, although our share there is lower than our share in the leader in this space right now. So that's another reason that we expect to dilute our share a little bit this year.
我們是否過度依賴某個客戶?嗯,全球HBM供應商的依賴程度明顯高於單一供應商。這在很大程度上推動了我們的業績,去年如此,今年也將繼續如此。其他供應商也正在上線。其中一家主要在公司內部進行測試。我們尚未將這些納入計劃,儘管我們認為他們使用我們的設備會更好,但我們尚未說服他們。該領域的另一家供應商也是我們的大客戶,儘管我們目前在該領域的份額低於領先供應商。因此,這也是我們預計今年份額會略有縮減的另一個原因。
The other point that I'll make is I was saying that we like our chances in terms of getting into new insertions for HBM memory this year. I think that, that's an important point. And we are hopeful that, that's going to be delivering significantly higher revenue for us through the midterm.
我要說的另一點是,我之前說過,我們看好今年HBM記憶體新品的上市機會。我認為這很重要。我們希望這能為我們帶來中期顯著更高的收入。
Krish Sankar - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Krish Sankar - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Very helpful, very helpful. And then just a quick follow-up. You spoke about your revenue trajectory for the year. You said September should be similar to June and then growth in 4Q. I was just curious because that seems to be against normal seasonality. So what's the deviation this year?
非常有幫助,非常有幫助。然後我快速跟進。您談到了今年的收入走勢。您說9月份的營收應該與6月份持平,然後第四季會成長。我很好奇,因為這似乎與正常的季節性不符。那麼今年的偏差是多少呢?
Sanjay Mehta - CFO, VP & Treasurer
Sanjay Mehta - CFO, VP & Treasurer
Yes. Interesting question. I'd say that I remember several years back when we talked about we were going into a downturn and that downturn was 4 to 6 quarters, and the downturn has gone a lot longer in the way of mobility. And as Greg noted, we believe that our forecast considers mobility at a point where we feel comfortable that it's going to be achieved. And so I think as things pick back up, the historical seasonality, I put it in the context of some segments are going to be recovering and we have some new segments that are -- or some segments that are growing fairly well. So I think the seasonality comment with regards to the test perspective, or test portfolio of businesses we have. It's a little bit off this year.
是的,這是一個有趣的問題。我記得幾年前我們討論過經濟衰退,那次衰退持續了4到6個季度,而就移動出行而言,衰退持續的時間更長。正如格雷格所說,我們認為我們的預測考慮到了移動出行,並且我們確信它能夠實現。因此,我認為隨著經濟回暖,歷史季節性,我將其放在某些細分市場將會復甦的背景下,我們有一些新的細分市場正在復甦——或者說,一些細分市場正在增長相當好。所以我認為,關於測試視角或我們業務組合的測試,季節性的評論今年略有偏差。
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
This is Greg. Just one additional bit of color. If you think about the seasonality pattern that we developed really for a decade, 2010 through 2021, that seasonality, if you looked at all of our segments with the exception of mobile, there wasn't a really marked seasonality. Like those automotive, compute, industrial, they kind of chugged along. The seasonality was really driven by the mobile TAM, and that was driven by consumer buying behavior, right, that you needed to have things for the holiday season and for Lunar New Year. All of that inventory needed to be built up. And so there was a concentration of capacity that would go in, in Q2 and Q3, with mobile not driving right now, the seasonality is very, very muted. So I would expect to see that the seasonality will return once the mobile market is stronger, but I don't think you can use normal patterns to predict the way things will look in '24.
我是格雷格。我再補充一點。想想我們過去十年(2010 年至 2021 年)形成的季節性模式,除了行動業務之外,我們所有的細分市場都沒有明顯的季節性。像是汽車、計算和工業領域,它們的季節性都比較平穩。季節性實際上是由行動市場總規模 (TAM) 驅動的,而行動市場總規模又受消費者購買行為的影響,例如節日季節和農曆新年期間需要備貨。所有這些庫存都需要囤積。因此,產能會集中在第二季和第三季度,由於行動業務目前沒有起色,季節性非常非常弱。所以我預計,一旦行動市場走強,季節性就會回歸,但我認為你不能用常規模式來預測 2024 年的情況。
Operator
Operator
Next question comes from the line of Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley.
下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的喬·摩爾。
Joseph Lawrence Moore - Executive Director
Joseph Lawrence Moore - Executive Director
I wonder if you could talk to the smartphone issues that you just mentioned. Away from your biggest customer, you sort of saw the smartphone suppliers reduce balance sheet inventory by 15, 20 days in Q4. And they talked about doing that again in Q1. So I would expect you to have low visibility, but shouldn't you get some recovery as they stop depleting that much inventory? Is there any kind of nuance in terms of how much of that inventory has been tested already in die bank, things like that. But shouldn't we have some optimism that this is going to get better.
我想知道您能否談談剛才提到的智慧型手機問題。除了您最大的客戶之外,您發現智慧型手機供應商在第四季度將資產負債表庫存減少了15到20天。他們也談到在第一季再次採取同樣的措施。所以我預計您的庫存可見度會很低,但隨著他們停止消耗那麼多庫存,您的業績不應該有所回升嗎?在庫存中有多少已經進行了測試之類的方面,是否存在一些細微的差別?但我們不應該對情況會好轉抱持樂觀的態度嗎?
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Well, I think we certainly have optimism that it can get better. And that's basically because we've dialed in the bottom. And the way we do this is we typically will look at tester utilization numbers. And frankly, those numbers are all over the map. Some indicators show that capacity is tightening. Other indicators are showing that it's relatively -- utilization is tightening. Others show that it's relatively flat. Our qualitative checks, when we are talking to people in the ecosystem, they are telling us that capacity -- that utilization is getting tighter and it's forecast to go up from there.
嗯,我認為我們當然對情況會好轉抱持樂觀態度。這主要是因為我們已經觸底了。我們的做法是,通常會查看測試人員的使用率數字。坦白說,這些數據參差不齊。一些指標顯示產能正在收緊。其他指標則顯示利用率相對收緊。還有一些指標則顯示利用率相對持平。當我們進行定性檢查時,與生態系統中的人們交談時,他們告訴我們,產能利用率正在收緊,並且預計此後還會上升。
So the thing that, that hasn't done is it hasn't turned into firm forecast for additional business. And there is a fair amount of -- I think the lack of visibility that we see, it runs all the way through the supply chain that people are wondering what's going to happen. People are wondering how well handset sales will recover? And I think it's really going to come down to the way that the holiday season demand is shaping up. That's the thing that's going to be the lever that either turns on some additional spot buys or we'll have people waiting until 2025.
所以,它還沒能轉化為對額外業務的明確預測。而且,我認為我們看到的缺乏透明度,貫穿了整個供應鏈,人們都在猜測接下來會發生什麼。人們想知道手機銷量會復甦到什麼程度?我認為這最終取決於假日季需求的形成。假期季節需求將成為關鍵因素,要么刺激一些額外的現貨購買,要么讓人們等到2025年。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Brian Chin with Stifel.
謝謝。下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Brian Chin。
Brian Edward Chin - Associate
Brian Edward Chin - Associate
Just to clarify, maybe firstly, was the third quarter pull-in, was that for AI, for compute, or for memory, or for both? And just to be clear, your share of the $200 million memory TAM increase, should we think about that being closer to, say, 40% if the emphasis is on wafer sort. And kind of sorry one more part to this. But I didn't catch this earlier, but if HBM demand is biased to a single customer, do you expect memory sales to be lumpy this year kind of from a quarterly perspective?
首先要澄清的是,第三季的銷售成長是來自人工智慧、運算、內存,還是兩者兼具?另外,需要明確的是,如果重點放在晶圓排序上,您在2億美元記憶體TAM成長中所佔的份額是否應該接近40%?抱歉,我還有一點補充。但我之前沒注意到,如果HBM需求偏向單一客戶,從季度角度來看,您是否預期今年的記憶體銷售會比較不穩定?
Sanjay Mehta - CFO, VP & Treasurer
Sanjay Mehta - CFO, VP & Treasurer
Yes, I'll take the kind of the Q3 to Q2. It was, I'd say, mainly in compute and some ADAS that was accelerated and -- just looking up something.
是的,我會選擇 Q3 到 Q2 那種類型的。我想說,主要是在計算和一些加速的 ADAS 方面——只是在尋找一些東西。
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Yes. So in terms of the TAM increase, we moved the TAM up by $200 million. And I think -- I think your guess of $40 million is a bit low. I think we'll be up a bit more than -- we'll get a larger chunk of that up than that, probably in line with our historical share level, kind of 35% to 40% of that TAM increase should probably go to us. In terms of lumpy sales, no, I think actually the memory business is driving -- we have deliveries that will be stretching out through the year. And I think the demand is relatively steady and potentially increasing. So I think on a quarterly basis, we don't expect a lot of memory variation.
是的。就TAM增幅而言,我們把TAM提高了2億美元。我認為你估計的4000萬美元有點低。我認為我們的增幅會更高一些,我們會從中分得更大的一杯羹,可能與我們的歷史份額水平一致,TAM增幅的35%到40%應該會歸於我們。至於銷售額的波動,我認為實際上是內存業務在推動——我們的交付將持續到全年。我認為需求相對穩定,並且有可能成長。所以我認為按季度來看,我們預計內存業務的波動不會太大。
Brian Edward Chin - Associate
Brian Edward Chin - Associate
Okay. That's helpful. And then switching gears to robotics. It seems like your omnichannel and new product focus is driving a lot of this improved momentum in that business. But can you also just touch on the broader environment you're seeing in robotics, and where, if any, you see sort of macro like headwinds or tailwinds? And last part of that, what vertical or application was that customer that placed the record MiR order? And did that include any of the MiR1200s?
好的,這很有幫助。然後我們轉到機器人領域。看起來,你們對全通路和新產品的關注在很大程度上推動了該業務的成長勢頭。但是,您能否也談談您在機器人領域看到的更廣泛的環境?如果有的話,您認為有哪些宏觀因素,例如逆風或順風?最後一點,下達創紀錄 MiR 訂單的客戶是哪個垂直產業或應用領域?訂單中是否包含 MiR1200 機器人?
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Okay. So in terms of the macro environment, it's pretty weak. I mean it was weak throughout 2023, and we don't see a significant improvement right now in terms of the end market conditions. If you look at PMIs, some regions are clicking up slightly, but we haven't really seen that turned into like a hot market. Having said that, we're in a part of the robotics market that is very, very low penetration. And so we are not -- we have seen our business results vary with the macro conditions, and we think that, that is indicative of the -- that was one of the things that drove us to go and make the changes in terms of adding new products and driving channel development, because we think we're 5% of the way into something that could be huge.
好的。就宏觀環境而言,情況相當疲軟。我的意思是,2023年全年都表現疲軟,就終端市場而言,我們目前還沒有看到顯著改善。如果你看一下PMI,你會發現一些地區的PMI略有回升,但我們還沒有真正看到它們變成熱門市場。話雖如此,我們所處的機器人市場滲透率非常非常低。因此,我們的業務成果會隨著宏觀環境的變化而變化,我們認為,這表明了——這也是促使我們在增加新產品和推動通路開發方面做出改變的原因之一,因為我們認為我們已經完成了5%的目標,而這個目標可能會非常巨大。
And if that's the case, then we should be somewhat immune to these cycles. But we've been looking at like industrial robot competitors and their results this quarter have been pretty meager. Like especially if you look at their incoming order rates, which is more comparable, they have long lead times. We have short lead times. So it's better for us to compare their orders to our orders. We feel like we are doing far better than they are in these end market conditions. But we're really focused on kind of controlling our own destiny by finding the things that need support even when the end market is (inaudible).
如果是這樣,那麼我們應該能在某種程度上免受這些週期的影響。但我們一直在關注工業機器人競爭對手,他們本季的業績相當慘淡。尤其是如果你看看他們的訂單率,這更具可比性,你會發現他們的交貨週期很長。而我們的交貨週期很短。所以我們最好將他們的訂單與我們的訂單進行比較。我們覺得在目前的終端市場環境下,我們的表現遠勝於他們。但我們真正專注於掌控自己的命運,即使在終端市場(聽不清楚)的情況下,我們也能找到需要支援的產品。
One thing that I'll say is looking at other sort of industrial analyst notes and talking to people in that space, they are expecting improved strength like they think that things are going to get better, not worse. So I'm optimistic that we're going to have some macro tailwinds in addition to the plan that we baked, that's kind of counting on things staying around where they are.
我想說的是,我查看了其他行業分析師的報告,並與業內人士交流,他們預計經濟實力會增強,就像他們認為情況會好轉而不是惡化一樣。因此,我樂觀地認為,除了我們所製定的計畫之外,我們還將獲得一些宏觀利好因素,這在某種程度上取決於情況能否維持現狀。
Operator
Operator
Next question comes from the line of Gus Richard with Northland Capital.
下一個問題來自 Northland Capital 的 Gus Richard。
Auguste Philip Richard - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Auguste Philip Richard - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Congratulations on the results. On the Industrial Automation, you've got a partnership with NVIDIA on AI. And sort of one on the limiters to penetration is the lack of a VAR channel, having to have to work with people to implement this stuff. Does multimodal AI or AI in general sort of simplify the implementation? Can you simplify the programming and implementation of robotics with that infusion of AI?
祝賀你們所取得的成果。在工業自動化領域,你們與英偉達在人工智慧領域建立了合作關係。而限制滲透率的因素之一是缺乏增值轉售管道,需要與人合作才能實現這些目標。多模態人工智慧或一般意義上的人工智慧是否能簡化實施?透過引入人工智慧,你們能否簡化機器人技術的程式設計和實作?
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Yes. So for sure, the great thing about AI, there are two primary benefits to AI. One is that it's far easier to design a solution that is able to deal with variation, whether it's part variation or location variation or other uncertainties that exist in normal manufacturing environments, the solutions end up being far more resilient. So that means that more people would be willing to adopt them.
是的。人工智慧的偉大之處當然在於它有兩大優點。其一是它更容易設計出能夠應對各種變化的解決方案,無論是零件變化、位置變化,還是正常製造環境中存在的其他不確定性,這些解決方案最終都會更具彈性。這意味著會有更多人願意採用它們。
People don't want to put fragile things into production and AI will help make things more robust. The simplicity of developing things is definitely a huge benefit of AI. So the demonstration that we did at GTC was a pretty sophisticated visual inspection application. And because we were leveraging a really powerful AI stack from NVIDIA, we were able to put that together in less than 2 weeks. It was a very fast turnaround to be able to build that solution. And we expect that both customers and customers and especially solution providers are going to be able to leverage that and create solutions to categories of problems that will help drive growth.
人們不願意將脆弱的東西投入生產,而人工智慧將使其變得更加穩健。開發過程的簡易性無疑是人工智慧的一大優勢。我們在GTC上演示的是一款相當複雜的視覺檢測應用程式。由於我們利用了NVIDIA強大的人工智慧堆疊,我們能夠在不到兩週的時間內完成它。能夠建立這個解決方案,這是一個非常快速的週期。我們期望客戶,尤其是解決方案提供商,都能利用這一點,為各類問題創建解決方案,從而推動成長。
Auguste Philip Richard - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Auguste Philip Richard - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Got it. And then on the semi test side, you've got sort of -- it's going to be a while before we get to 2 nanometers, yields at 3. I don't think we're that great. And the AI accelerators are reticle limited. How are you seeing the expansion of use of chiplets sort of beyond AI accelerators and servers and FPGAs. Is that beginning to broaden out?
明白了。然後在半測試方面,我們還需要一段時間才能達到2奈米,良率達到3奈米。我認為我們目前還沒有達到那個水平。而AI加速器受到光罩的限制。您如何看待Chiplet在AI加速器、伺服器和FPGA之外的應用程式擴充?這個領域是否正在開始拓展?
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Not really. Well, one thing is that most of the advanced packaging capacity in the world has been consumed by the people who are doing cloud AI, high-performance computing. So there's more demand than there is supply for it. So I think that's limiting it to the markets that are willing to pay the most for the ability to do it. I think that it's possible that chiplet technology will migrate out of high-performance computing potentially -- I mean it could potentially migrate into some mobile applications. I think that's going to be a relatively slow process because the price points are very, very different.
並非如此。嗯,首先,全球大部分先進封裝產能都被從事雲端AI和高效能運算的人消耗了。因此,市場對這類技術的需求大於供給。所以我認為這限制了它只能在那些願意為此支付最高價格的市場中發展。我認為Chiplet技術有可能從高效能運算領域遷移出來——我的意思是,它可能會遷移到一些行動應用中。我認為這將是一個相對緩慢的過程,因為價格點差異很大。
And then I think for industrial and automotive AI applications, it's likely to be a long time before you see chiplet technology in there because of the reliability and temperature range questions. It's a much more challenging environment to try and put packages. But that's kind of my view. I think that there are people that have a more aggressive view in terms of where chiplets will go.
然後,我認為對於工業和汽車AI應用來說,由於可靠性和溫度範圍的問題,晶片技術可能還需要很長時間才能實現。在這樣的環境下,封裝的嘗試將更具挑戰性。但這只是我的觀點。我認為有些人對晶片的發展方向有更正面的看法。
Operator
Operator
We have time for one last question. The next question comes from the line of Steve Barger with KeyBanc Capital Markets.
我們還有時間問最後一個問題。下一個問題來自KeyBanc Capital Markets的Steve Barger。
Robert Stephen Barger - MD & Equity Research Analyst
Robert Stephen Barger - MD & Equity Research Analyst
I'll be quick. Greg, you said share gain opportunities in HBM are good. Is that primarily due to you having capacity to support a fast-growing addressable market, or is there something unique in your current or future testers that will make you a supplier of choice for some variations of HBM?
我很快回覆。 Greg,您說 HBM 的市佔率成長機會很好。這主要是因為你們有能力支持快速成長的潛在市場,還是因為你們目前或未來的測試儀有什麼獨特之處,使你們成為某些 HBM 型號的首選供應商?
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
I think it's definitely the latter. So we believe we have a differentiated solution, both in terms of ability to support data rates out through HBM 4 and also in terms of being able to use same platform across multiple insertions. So we think that we have an ability to deliver more cost-effective performance test of HBM, and we believe that we're going to make some progress there.
我認為肯定是後者。因此,我們相信我們擁有一個差異化的解決方案,不僅能夠支援透過 HBM 4 傳輸的資料速率,還能在多個插入中使用相同平台。因此,我們認為我們有能力提供更具成本效益的 HBM 性能測試,我們相信我們將在這方面取得一些進展。
Robert Stephen Barger - MD & Equity Research Analyst
Robert Stephen Barger - MD & Equity Research Analyst
Understood. And for the large account channel in robotics, you said there's a gestation time before revenue. Was this largest ever MiR order a function of work prior done to the pivot? Or did it come after? And then to your point about being more immune to cycles, is that just because large accounts are more likely to invest through cycles and are less swayed by near-term conditions?
明白了。您之前提到,對於機器人領域的大客戶管道,在收益產生之前需要一段醞釀期。那麼,這筆有史以來最大的 MiR 訂單是與轉型之前的工作有關嗎?還是在轉型之後?然後,關於您提到的更不受週期影響的觀點,這是否僅僅是因為大客戶更有可能在周期內進行投資,並且不太受短期狀況的影響?
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Yes. So let me take the large account question first. And I need to apologize to Brian because I didn't answer his question before. So the largest order that we've ever gotten from MiR, it came from an automotive customer. And it is also our historically largest customer for MiR. By no coincidence, it's also a significantly large customer for UR. So we have been selling them robots for a long time. The one thing that has happened since we established our large account effort is that we've been applying many of the strategic account management techniques that we've been using for decades in semiconductor test towards addressing those accounts and really organizing ourselves around the way that those large accounts acquire new equipment and also how to take care of the equipment that they have. So I think it's certainly an account that predated that effort, but I think our ability to serve that account has improved with this effort.
是的。那我先來回答一下大客戶的問題。我需要向Brian道歉,因為我之前沒有回答他的問題。我們從MiR獲得的最大訂單來自一位汽車客戶。這也是我們MiR史上最大的客戶。絕非偶然,它也是UR的一個相當大的客戶。我們長期以來一直在向他們銷售機器人。自從我們建立大客戶業務以來,我們一直在運用我們在半導體測試領域數十年來一直使用的許多戰略客戶管理技術來處理這些客戶,並真正圍繞這些大客戶採購新設備的方式以及如何維護現有設備進行組織。所以我認為,這當然是一個早於我們建立大客戶業務的客戶,但我認為透過這項業務,我們服務該客戶的能力得到了提升。
Robert Stephen Barger - MD & Equity Research Analyst
Robert Stephen Barger - MD & Equity Research Analyst
And then just about being more immune to cycles, is that because large accounts will invest through cycles? And so that pivot will make you less cyclical yourself?
那麼,關於更不受週期影響,是否因為大額帳戶會隨著週期變化而投資?所以,這種轉變會讓你自身不那麼受週期影響?
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
I think actually, the large accounts may be the segment that has -- that will continue to be sensitive to end market conditions, because large accounts will work off of budgets. And if they don't provide budgets for automation, then those purchases won't happen. The thing that we're really trying to do is make sure that we are adding enough new opportunities to drive growth even if end market conditions are weak.
我認為,實際上,大客戶可能是對終端市場狀況持續敏感的細分市場,因為大客戶會根據預算來運作。如果他們不提供自動化預算,那麼這些採購就無法進行。我們真正想做的是確保即使在終端市場狀況疲軟的情況下,也能增加足夠的新機會來推動成長。
So a key part of this is being able to find and serve customers that have these problems. We have 95% of this market that is as yet unserved. So there is plenty of opportunity. And the key thing that we're trying to do is to pick our shots, pick the specific industry verticals and the specific applications that are likely to be driving growth independent of the aggregate macro conditions.
因此,其中的關鍵在於能夠找到並服務面臨這些問題的客戶。我們在這個市場上有95%的份額尚未滿足。因此,機會無限。我們努力做到的關鍵是選擇目標,選擇特定的垂直產業和特定的應用,這些領域和應用可能會在不受宏觀經濟環境影響的情況下推動成長。
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, we have reached the end of question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the floor over to Traci Tsuchiguchi for closing comments.
女士們,先生們,我們的問答環節已經結束。現在,我想請Traci Tsuchiguchi發表最後總結。
Traci Tsuchiguchi
Traci Tsuchiguchi
Great. Thank you all for joining us this morning for our first quarter earnings call. We look forward to being in touch with you all through the course of the quarter. Thank you. Good day.
太好了!感謝大家今天上午參加我們第一季財報電話會議。我們期待在本季繼續與大家保持聯繫。謝謝大家。祝大家早日康復。
Operator
Operator
This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time.
今天的電話會議到此結束。您可以掛斷電話了。