Teradyne 召開電話會議,討論 2024 年第一季財務業績,強調了內存和 SOC 的強勁表現、人工智慧對業務的影響以及對第二季度的預期。他們預計,在人工智慧應用的推動下,運算 TAM、記憶體測試市場和機器人業務將會成長。
該公司提供了第一季的財務摘要、第二季的展望以及全年的預期。他們討論了 VIP 項目、2 奈米技術以及智慧型手機中人工智慧整合的影響。
泰瑞達 (Teradyne) 預計,在機器人技術新增長動力以及與 NVIDIA 合作的推動下,全年將實現環比增長。他們對自己在機器人市場的地位和潛在的成長機會感到樂觀。
使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Greetings, and welcome to Q1 2024 Teradyne, Inc. Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.
您好,歡迎參加泰瑞達 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。 (操作員指示)謹此提醒,本次會議正在錄製中。
It is now my pleasure to introduce your host Traci Tsuchiguchi, Vice President, Investor Relations. Thank you, Ms. Tsuchiguchi. You may begin.
現在我很高興向大家介紹主持人投資者關係副總裁 Traci Tsuchiguchi。謝謝土口女士。你可以開始了。
Traci Tsuchiguchi
Traci Tsuchiguchi
Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our discussion of Teradyne's most recent financial results. I'm joined this morning by our CEO, Greg Smith; and our CFO, Sanjay Mehta. Following our opening remarks, we'll provide details of our performance for the first quarter of 2024 and our outlook for the second quarter of 2024.
謝謝你,接線生。大家早安,歡迎來到我們對泰瑞達最新財務表現的討論。今天早上我們的執行長格雷格史密斯 (Greg Smith) 也加入了我的行列。以及我們的財務長桑傑梅塔 (Sanjay Mehta)。在我們的開場白之後,我們將提供 2024 年第一季業績的詳細資訊以及 2024 年第二季的展望。
The press release containing our first quarter results was issued last evening. We are providing slides on the Investor page of our website that may be helpful in following the discussion. Replays of this call will be available via the same page after the call ends.
包含我們第一季業績的新聞稿於昨晚發布。我們在我們網站的投資者頁面上提供幻燈片,這可能有助於追蹤討論。通話結束後,可以透過同一頁面重播此通話。
The matters that we discuss today will include forward-looking statements that involve risks that could cause Teradyne's results to differ materially from management's current expectations. We caution listeners not to place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements included in this presentation. We encourage you to review the safe harbor statement contained in slides accompanying this presentation as well as the risk factors described in our annual report on the 10-K with the SEC.
我們今天討論的事項將包括前瞻性陳述,這些陳述涉及可能導致泰瑞達的業績與管理層當前預期產生重大差異的風險。我們提醒聽眾不要過度依賴本簡報中的任何前瞻性陳述。我們鼓勵您查看本簡報附帶的幻燈片中包含的安全港聲明以及我們向 SEC 提交的 10-K 年度報告中所述的風險因素。
Additionally, these forward-looking statements are made only as of today. During today's call, we will make reference to non-GAAP financial measures. We have posted additional information concerning these non-GAAP financial measures including reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure where available on the Investor Relations page of our website. Looking ahead between now and our next earnings call, Teradyne expects to participate in technology or investor-focused investor conferences, hosted by JPMorgan, KeyBanc, Cowen, Bernstein and Stifel.
此外,這些前瞻性陳述僅在今天作出。在今天的電話會議中,我們將參考非公認會計準則財務指標。我們已經發布了有關這些非公認會計原則財務指標的更多信息,包括與我們網站投資者關係頁面上最直接可比的公認會計原則財務指標的調節。展望從現在到下一次財報電話會議,泰瑞達預計將參加由摩根大通、KeyBanc、Cowen、Bernstein 和 Stifel 主辦的技術或以投資者為中心的投資者會議。
Following Greg and Sanjay's comments this morning, we'll open up the call for questions. This call is scheduled for 1 hour. Greg?
在格雷格和桑傑今天早上發表評論之後,我們將開始提問。本次通話預計持續 1 小時。格雷格?
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Thanks, Traci. Hello, everyone, and thanks for joining us this morning. Today, I will summarize our first quarter results and discuss some of the trends in the semiconductor industry and robotics that we believe position Teradyne for long-term growth. It is useful to comprehend these longer-term growth drivers because the industries in which we operate are inherently cyclical. Sanjay will then provide greater financial detail on our first quarter results, our current outlook and additional financial information.
謝謝,特蕾西。大家好,感謝您今天早上加入我們。今天,我將總結我們第一季的業績,並討論半導體產業和機器人技術的一些趨勢,我們認為這些趨勢有助於泰瑞達實現長期成長。理解這些長期成長動力很有用,因為我們經營的產業本質上是週期性的。然後,桑傑將提供有關我們第一季業績、當前前景和其他財務資訊的更多財務細節。
We delivered first quarter financial results above our revenue, gross margin and earnings guidance ranges. Memory and SOC delivered above our plan and showed strong performance in the quarter driven primarily by AI applications. The impact of AI on our business was seen in networking as well as in Edge AI applications like ADAS. Over 40% of our memory shipments in the first quarter were driven by AI applications.
我們第一季的財務表現高於我們的收入、毛利率和獲利指引範圍。記憶體和 SOC 的交付超出了我們的計劃,並在本季度顯示出強勁的性能,這主要是由人工智慧應用程式推動的。人工智慧對我們業務的影響體現在網路以及 ADAS 等邊緣人工智慧應用。第一季超過 40% 的記憶體出貨量是由人工智慧應用推動的。
As we expected, mobile continued to be soft in the first quarter. Our robotics business delivered to planned for the third consecutive quarter as their go-to-market execution continues to improve.
正如我們預期的那樣,第一季行動市場繼續疲軟。我們的機器人業務連續第三個季度按計劃交付,因為它們的上市執行力不斷改善。
Moving on to Q2. The impact of AI on test demand we experienced in the first quarter is continuing into the second quarter, improving our outlook in memory and in compute. However, a meaningful upturn in mobile, legacy auto and industrial end markets may not occur until the 2025 time frame.
繼續第二季。人工智慧對我們在第一季經歷的測試需求的影響持續到第二季度,改善了我們在記憶體和運算方面的前景。然而,行動、傳統汽車和工業終端市場可能要到 2025 年才會出現有意義的改善。
Looking ahead, within the semiconductor test market, we expect that the compute TAM, which includes networking in many vertically integrated producers to grow at a faster pace than previously expected. We now estimate the compute TAM in 2024 to be $1.5 billion, up from $1.4 billion. We have lowered our TAM estimates for auto, industrial and mobile markets as recovery in these end markets appears to be pushing out in time. With the combination of our stronger first half and limited visibility into the second half, our estimate of the 2024 SOC TAM remains unchanged at $3.6 billion to $4.2 billion.
展望未來,在半導體測試市場中,我們預計計算 TAM(包括許多垂直整合生產商的網路)將以比之前預期更快的速度成長。我們現在估計 2024 年計算 TAM 將從 14 億美元增加到 15 億美元。我們降低了對汽車、工業和行動市場的 TAM 預測,因為這些終端市場的復甦似乎正在及時推進。由於上半年表現強勁,而下半年的前景有限,我們對 2024 年 SOC TAM 的預測維持在 36 億至 42 億美元不變。
In memory test, we are increasing our expectation TAM growth to $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion from our prior estimate of $1 billion to $1.1 billion, driven mainly by stronger demand for HBM, which we expect to grow 5x last year's level. As I'm sure you've noticed, our first quarter results and second quarter expectations are significantly above our view from January. For the full year, at the company level, we continue to expect low single-digit growth from 2023.
在記憶體測試中,我們將TAM 成長預期從先前的10 億美元到11 億美元提高到12 億美元到13 億美元,這主要是由於對HBM 的需求強勁,我們預計HBM 的需求將是去年水平的5 倍。我相信您已經注意到,我們第一季的業績和第二季的預期明顯高於我們一月份的預期。就公司層級而言,我們繼續預期 2023 年全年將出現低個位數成長。
In January, we are expecting the year to be back half loaded with mobile driving that recovery. We also shared that lead times were decreasing and our visibility was limited. The sustained strength and new demand in AI-driven applications are boosting our business in the first half. However, we are being cautious on the second half on what looks like continued weakness in the mobile market. Our operations team is continuing to enable us to pursue short lead time opportunities, so it certainly feels as if there's more upside opportunity than downside risk.
一月份,我們預計今年將迎來一半的行動推動復甦。我們也表示,交貨時間正在縮短,我們的可見度也有限。人工智慧驅動應用的持續強勁和新需求正在推動我們上半年的業務發展。然而,由於行動市場持續疲軟,我們對下半年持謹慎態度。我們的營運團隊正在繼續使我們能夠追求較短的交貨時間機會,因此肯定感覺上行機會多於下行風險。
Now turning to robotics. The first quarter is typically quite weak for our robotics business, and this year is no exception. We were very pleased to see the team deliver on plan and are expecting sequential growth in the second quarter. We are executing a plan which we expect to deliver 10% to 20% growth in 2024. This plan includes three elements: first is SAM expansion through new offerings. Second is growing our OEM solution provider in large account channels. Third is building increased recurring revenue through service and software offerings.
現在轉向機器人技術。我們的機器人業務第一季通常相當疲軟,今年也不例外。我們很高興看到團隊按計劃交付,並預計第二季將實現環比增長。我們正在執行一項計劃,預計到 2024 年將實現 10% 到 20% 的成長。其次是在大客戶通路中發展我們的 OEM 解決方案提供者。第三是透過服務和軟體產品增加經常性收入。
In the first quarter, we made good progress in all of these areas. We executed on new SAM expanding initiatives with the announcement of UR's collaboration with NVIDIA and the new MiR1200 pallet jack. We grew our UR OEM business 58% year-on-year, and we received the single largest order in the history of MiR from a strategic customer.
第一季度,我們在所有這些領域都取得了良好進展。我們執行了新的 SAM 擴展計劃,宣布 UR 與 NVIDIA 合作並推出新的 MiR1200 托盤搬運車。我們的 UR OEM 業務年增 58%,並從策略客戶那裡獲得了 MiR 歷史上最大的單筆訂單。
Zooming out, we see AI as the transformational secular growth driver across all of our businesses. AI applications are already having a profound impact on the test market, but we are in the very early days of the growth trend that will play out over the coming years. Today, the profit pool generated from AI is concentrated in the build-out of cloud AI capabilities, especially for training LLMs on huge data sets.
縮小範圍後,我們將人工智慧視為我們所有業務的轉型性長期成長驅動力。人工智慧應用已經對測試市場產生了深遠的影響,但我們正處於未來幾年成長趨勢的早期階段。如今,人工智慧產生的利潤池集中在雲端人工智慧能力的建構上,特別是在海量資料集上培訓法學碩士。
The hardware requirements for training are massive and include general purpose fine grain compute, high bandwidth memory, dense network interconnection, and mammoth amounts of power, all of which are driving our business today. However, these LLMs will only deliver a business impact when they're used to solve problems in the real world. In other words, through inference applications, both in the cloud and at the edge.
訓練的硬體需求非常高,包括通用細粒度運算、高頻寬記憶體、密集網路互連和龐大的功率,所有這些都在推動我們今天的業務發展。然而,這些法學碩士只有在用於解決現實世界中的問題時才會產生業務影響。換句話說,透過雲端和邊緣的推理應用程式。
This is the key opportunity that is driving vertically integrated producers to develop their own devices and will materially affect the complexity of edge processors in automotive, industrial and mobile applications.
這是推動垂直整合生產商開發自己的設備的關鍵機會,並將對汽車、工業和行動應用中邊緣處理器的複雜性產生重大影響。
While our business is benefiting today from the considerable AI-driven growth in memory, networking and a few early ramps of vertically integrated producers, our greatest opportunity lies ahead as inference applications and edge AI accelerates because of our strong position with many of the leading providers of mobile and embedding computing in industrial and ADAS applications.
雖然我們的業務今天受益於人工智慧驅動的記憶體、網路和垂直整合生產商的一些早期增長,但由於我們在許多領先供應商中的強勢地位,隨著推理應用和邊緣人工智慧的加速發展,我們最大的機會就在前方工業和 ADAS 應用中的行動和嵌入式計算。
AI will also have a profound impact on the robotics industry. Teradyne Robotics is focused on collaborative applications, where robots need to work safely and efficiently in complex environments. AI provides an opportunity to more easily deploy robots that understand and adapt to their surroundings, making them more resilient and expanding the range of problems that they can address. With our layered approach to safety, high product quality and an open platform ecosystem, UR and MiR, are positioned as the preferred robotics platforms for the development of AI manufacturing and logistics solutions.
人工智慧也將對機器人產業產生深遠的影響。泰瑞達機器人公司專注於協作應用,機器人需要在複雜的環境中安全且有效率地工作。人工智慧提供了一個機會,可以更輕鬆地部署能夠理解和適應周圍環境的機器人,使它們更具彈性並擴大它們可以解決的問題範圍。憑藉我們的分層安全方法、高產品品質和開放平台生態系統,UR 和 MiR 被定位為開發人工智慧製造和物流解決方案的首選機器人平台。
Last month, we announced a collaboration with NVIDIA to utilize their robotics stack on UR hardware and demonstrated the power of that collaboration at GTC with a visual inspection application. Also in the first quarter, we announced the MiR1200 pallet jack, a new AI-powered solution that uses 3D Vision to identify, pick up and deliver pallets even in dynamic and complex environments, making it a valuable resource for autonomous material handling in factories and warehouses.
上個月,我們宣布與 NVIDIA 合作,在 UR 硬體上利用他們的機器人堆棧,並在 GTC 上透過視覺檢測應用程式展示了這種合作的強大功能。同樣在第一季度,我們推出了MiR1200 托盤搬運車,這是一種新型人工智慧驅動的解決方案,即使在動態和複雜的環境中,它也能使用3D Vision 識別、拾取和交付託盤,使其成為工廠和工廠自動化物料搬運的寶貴資源。
Advanced robotics is just one of the many early examples of Edge AI applications positively impacting our business. Others include advanced driver assistance systems and AI capabilities being added to premium tier mobile handsets. Edge AI is becoming a material driver of TAM growth for Semi Test, but we're in very early days. We expect AI will be an overarching growth driver for years to come in test as a primary demand driver and in robotics as a key enabler of market growth. We're positioned to benefit from this megatrend, and we're investing R&D and field resources to capture this opportunity.
先進的機器人只是邊緣人工智慧應用對我們業務產生積極影響的眾多早期例子之一。其他包括高級駕駛輔助系統和被添加到高階手機的人工智慧功能。邊緣人工智慧正成為 Semi Test TAM 成長的重要驅動力,但我們仍處於早期階段。我們預計,人工智慧將成為未來幾年的首要成長驅動力,在測試中作為主要需求驅動力,在機器人技術中作為市場成長的關鍵推動者。我們準備好從這一大趨勢中受益,並且我們正在投資研發和現場資源來抓住這一機會。
Summing up the quarter, we're off to a strong start with Q1 results and our outlook for Q2 well ahead of our view just 3 months ago. The strength and test is focused on cloud and edge AI applications, while other parts of the semiconductor industry work through inventory. Calling the end of these corrections is a challenge. So we're being cautious about our second half outlook. That said, our flexible operations model will enable us to serve upside demand. We expect that industrial, automotive and mobile will rebound from their current low levels and entirely new demand drivers like AI are already contributing to our Test business. The industry's increase in WFE spend in 2024 and 2025 will drive unit volume and device complexity growth, reinforcing our confidence in our midterm outlook.
總結本季度,我們在第一季度的業績中取得了良好的開局,並且我們對第二季度的展望遠遠超出了我們三個月前的看法。強度和測試集中在雲端和邊緣人工智慧應用程序,而半導體行業的其他部分則透過庫存進行工作。結束這些修正是個挑戰。因此,我們對下半年的前景持謹慎態度。也就是說,我們靈活的營運模式將使我們能夠滿足上行需求。我們預計工業、汽車和移動將從目前的低水平反彈,而人工智慧等全新的需求驅動因素已經為我們的測試業務做出了貢獻。該行業 2024 年和 2025 年 WFE 支出的增加將推動單位數量和設備複雜性的成長,增強我們對中期前景的信心。
And with that, I'll turn the call over to Sanjay. Sanjay?
然後,我會將電話轉給 Sanjay。桑傑?
Sanjay Mehta - CFO, VP & Treasurer
Sanjay Mehta - CFO, VP & Treasurer
Thank you, Greg. Good morning, everyone. Today, I'll cover the financial summary of Q1, provide our Q2 outlook and full year planning assumptions. Now to Q1. First quarter sales were $600 million, which was $10 million above the high end of our guidance with non-GAAP EPS of $0.51, which was above the high end of our guidance of $0.38. Non-GAAP gross margins were 56.6%, above our guidance due to favorable product mix, higher volumes and improved operational efficiencies. Non-GAAP operating expenses were $251 million, both flat year-over-year and up slightly compared to our fourth quarter. Non-GAAP operating profit was approximately 15%.
謝謝你,格雷格。大家,早安。今天,我將介紹第一季的財務摘要,提供我們第二季的展望和全年計畫假設。現在到 Q1。第一季銷售額為 6 億美元,比我們指引的上限高出 1,000 萬美元,非 GAAP 每股收益為 0.51 美元,高於我們指引的上限 0.38 美元。由於有利的產品組合、更高的產量和更高的營運效率,非 GAAP 毛利率為 56.6%,高於我們的指引。非 GAAP 營運費用為 2.51 億美元,較去年同期持平,但與第四季相比略有上升。非 GAAP 營業利潤約 15%。
Turning to our revenue breakdown in Q1. Semi Test revenue for the quarter was $412 million, with SOC revenue contributing $302 million and memory, $110 million. In memory, our sales were strongest in DRAM as AI-driven demand remains strong. Test for HBM is being prioritized by our customers, and we are seeing customers transition capital spending for testers away from flash to DRAM, in part due to HBM and the return of capacity adds and other DRAM test.
轉向我們第一季的營收細分。該季度半測試營收為 4.12 億美元,其中 SOC 營收貢獻 3.02 億美元,記憶體貢獻 1.1 億美元。在記憶體方面,由於人工智慧驅動的需求依然強勁,我們的 DRAM 銷售最為強勁。我們的客戶優先考慮 HBM 測試,我們看到客戶將測試儀的資本支出從快閃記憶體轉向 DRAM,部分原因是 HBM 以及容量增加和其他 DRAM 測試的回歸。
Historically, we've seen split between flash and DRAM markets be more balanced. In System Test group, Q1 revenue was $75 million, with $23 million in storage test on low SLT and HDD demand. Recall, SLT has high exposure to the smartphone market. And even as HDD end markets begin to recover, tester capacity utilization rates remain low. In Wireless Test, revenue was $25 million in Q1, reflecting continued weakness in PC and mobile markets. In Q2, we expect wireless test to improve due to gaming end market and are now beginning to see the ramp of WiFi 7.
從歷史上看,我們發現快閃記憶體和 DRAM 市場之間的劃分更加平衡。在系統測試部門,第一季營收為 7,500 萬美元,其中 2,300 萬美元用於低 SLT 和 HDD 需求的儲存測試。回想一下,SLT 在智慧型手機市場的曝光率很高。即使硬碟終端市場開始復甦,測試儀產能利用率仍然很低。在無線測試領域,第一季的營收為 2,500 萬美元,反映出 PC 和行動市場的持續疲軟。在第二季度,我們預計無線測試將因遊戲終端市場而有所改善,並且現在開始看到 WiFi 7 的成長。
Now to robotics. Revenue was $88 million as planned with UR contributing $68 million and MiR, $20 million. Shifting to some cash metrics. At a company level, our free cash flow was an outflow of $37 million in the quarter. We typically consume cash in the first quarter as we pay taxes and variable employee compensation. We repurchased $22 million of shares in the quarter and paid $18 million in dividends. We ended the quarter with $871 million in cash and marketable securities.
現在談談機器人技術。按計劃,收入為 8800 萬美元,其中 UR 貢獻 6800 萬美元,MiR 貢獻 2000 萬美元。轉向一些現金指標。在公司層面,本季我們的自由現金流流出 3,700 萬美元。我們通常在第一季消耗現金,因為我們繳稅和可變員工薪資。我們在本季回購了 2,200 萬美元的股票,並支付了 1,800 萬美元的股息。本季結束時,我們擁有 8.71 億美元的現金和有價證券。
Some other financial information in Q1. We had one 10% customer in the quarter. The tax rate, excluding discrete items for the fourth quarter was 15% on a GAAP basis and 15.5% on a non-GAAP basis. In Q1, we incurred an FX loss on the fair value of the currency exchange hedge related to the expected investment in Technoprobe. This drove a larger than typical variance between our GAAP and non-GAAP earnings in the quarter.
第一季的一些其他財務資訊。本季我們有一個 10% 的客戶。第四季的稅率(不含離散項目)以 GAAP 計算為 15%,以非 GAAP 計算為 15.5%。第一季度,我們因與 Technoprobe 的預期投資相關的貨幣兌換對沖公允價值而產生了外匯損失。這導致本季我們的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 收益之間存在比典型差異更大的差異。
Turning to our current operational environment. In Semi Test, supply lead times continue to decline as supply versus demand is more in line. Our lead times continue to hold at 1 to 2 quarters. However, in some cases, we have been able to service demand inside these lead times. As a result, our customers are moving back towards historical buying patterns with shorter lead times, thus yielding lower second half 2024 visibility consistent with the pre-pandemic environment. Robotics remains a quick turns business and our execution continues to deliver to these market conditions.
轉向我們當前的營運環境。在半測試中,由於供需更加一致,供應交貨時間持續縮短。我們的交貨時間繼續保持在 1 到 2 個季度。然而,在某些情況下,我們能夠在這些交貨時間內滿足需求。因此,我們的客戶正在回歸歷史購買模式,交貨時間更短,從而導致 2024 年下半年的可見度較低,與疫情前的環境一致。機器人技術仍然是一項快速週轉的業務,我們的執行力將繼續滿足這些市場條件。
Now turning to our outlook for Q2. Q2 sales are expected to be between $665 million and $725 million with non-GAAP EPS in a range of $0.64 to $0.84 and 162 million diluted shares. The second quarter guidance excludes the amortization of acquired intangibles and the anticipated gain on the expected sale of DIS, which is $0.29 in our GAAP forecast.
現在轉向我們對第二季的展望。第二季銷售額預計在 6.65 億美元至 7.25 億美元之間,非 GAAP 每股收益在 0.64 美元至 0.84 美元之間,稀釋後股票數量為 1.62 億股。第二季指引不包括收購無形資產的攤銷和 DIS 預期銷售的預期收益,我們的 GAAP 預測為 0.29 美元。
Some color around the forecasted increase to Q2 revenue versus our January view. The increase is driven by our Semi Test business where ADAS, compute networking and HBM demand has strengthened. As noted, this AI strength has continued into the second quarter and some orders initially scheduled for shipment in the third quarter have moved into the second quarter, improving our near-term outlook. Second quarter gross margins are estimated at 57% to 58%. OpEx is expected to run at 36% to 39% of second quarter sales, up modestly from Q1. Non-GAAP operating profit rate at the midpoint of our second quarter guidance is 20%.
與我們一月份的觀點相比,第二季營收的預測成長存在一些色彩。這一成長是由我們的半測試業務推動的,其中 ADAS、計算網路和 HBM 需求有所增強。如前所述,這種人工智慧優勢一直持續到第二季度,一些最初計劃在第三季度發貨的訂單已轉移到第二季度,改善了我們的近期前景。第二季毛利率預計為57%至58%。營運支出預計將佔第二季銷售額的 36% 至 39%,較第一季小幅上升。我們第二季指引的中點非 GAAP 營業利潤率為 20%。
A few points to assist you in modeling the rest of the year. I'll start with a few more details about the market estimates Greg provided. While our view of the SOC TAM is unchanged in total, under the cover, there are some puts and takes. Compute is up approximately $100 million, while mobile, auto and industrial are down a little over $100 million in aggregate. In anticipation of questions, let me provide the midpoint of our estimates by segment. Compute, $1.5 billion; mobile, $0.9 billion; auto MCU, $0.5 billion; Industrial, $0.3 billion; and service, $0.7 billion, summing up to $3.9 billion for SOC.
有幾點可以幫助您在今年剩餘的時間裡進行建模。我將從格雷格提供的市場估計的更多細節開始。雖然我們對 SOC TAM 的看法總體上沒有變化,但在幕後,還是有一些看法。計算領域成長了約 1 億美元,而行動、汽車和工業領域總計下降了 1 億多美元。為了避免問題,讓我提供我們按細分市場估算的中點。計算,15億美元;移動,9億美元;汽車MCU,5億美元;工業,3億美元;和服務 7 億美元,SOC 總計 39 億美元。
You'll notice the aggregate decline change has been allocated to the Industrial segment. Our memory estimate has increased $200 million with the midpoint of $1.25 billion. Please note, our final estimate for the 2023 SOC TAM is $4 billion, up $100 million in the Compute segment from our January view.
您會注意到總下降變化已分配給工業部門。我們的記憶體預估增加了 2 億美元,中位數增加了 12.5 億美元。請注意,我們對 2023 年 SOC TAM 的最終估計為 40 億美元,比我們 1 月的預測增加了計算領域的 1 億美元。
Back to revenue. We expect Q3 sales to be similar to Q2 and Q4 to improve from there. Note that our flattish sequential growth in Q3 does not assume any revenue from DIS. Excluding the impact of the anticipated divestiture, we would expect revenue to grow sequentially in Q3. Our expectation for revenue distribution for the full year is now less back half weighted than our view in January. We currently expect around 47% of the company revenue to be in the first half and 53% in the second half. We expect full year revenue to grow in the low single-digit range compared to 2023.
回到收入。我們預計第三季的銷售額將與第二季相似,第四季的銷售額將在此基礎上有所改善。請注意,我們第三季的環比成長並沒有假設來自 DIS 的任何收入。排除預期剝離的影響,我們預計第三季營收將季增。我們對全年收入分配的預期現在比我們一月份的預期要少。我們目前預計公司收入的約47%來自上半年,53%來自下半年。與 2023 年相比,我們預計全年收入將在較低的個位數範圍內成長。
Now to gross margins. Gross margins are expected to continue to improve as we progress through the year and should be at our target gross margin model for the fourth quarter. Full year gross margins will likely be in the 58% to 59% range unchanged from our January outlook.
現在談談毛利率。隨著今年的進展,毛利率預計將繼續改善,並應達到我們第四季的目標毛利率模型。全年毛利率可能在 58% 至 59% 的範圍內,與我們 1 月的展望持平。
Regarding OpEx for the full year. We expect full year 2024 OpEx to grow 5% to 7%, consistent with prior guide as we continue to make engineering and go-to-market investments. Our GAAP and non-GAAP tax rate, excluding discrete items, are forecasted to be 15% to 15.5%, respectively, in 2024.
關於全年營運支出。隨著我們繼續進行工程和上市投資,我們預計 2024 年全年營運支出將成長 5% 至 7%,與先前的指導一致。 2024 年,我們的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 稅率(不包括離散項目)預計分別為 15% 至 15.5%。
A quick update on our previously announced strategic partnership with Technoprobe. As a reminder, the agreement has several key components. First, Technoprobe will purchase Teradyne's DIS business, which provides advanced interfaces that connect our testers to customers' chips for test. Second, Teradyne will make an equity investment in Technoprobe, acquiring 10% of the company. Third, Teradyne and Technoprobe will work together on a series of projects to expand the performance of semiconductor device interfaces to enable customers to realize the full performance of our test systems. We continue to expect the transactions to close in the second quarter.
我們先前宣布的與 Technoprobe 策略合作夥伴關係的快速更新。提醒一下,該協定有幾個關鍵組成部分。首先,Technoprobe將收購Teradyne的DIS業務,該業務提供先進的接口,將我們的測試儀連接到客戶的晶片進行測試。其次,泰瑞達將對Technoprobe進行股權投資,收購該公司10%的股份。第三,Teradyne和Technoprobe將合作一系列項目,以擴展半導體裝置介面的效能,使客戶能夠實現我們測試系統的全部效能。我們仍然預計交易將在第二季完成。
DIS revenue contribution for the first quarter was approximately $21 million. Post closing, our cash position will decline as the transaction is expected to consume an estimated $440 million of net cash. We will continue to limit our share buybacks in 2024 to an amount necessary to offset dilutions from equity compensation and our employee share purchase program in order to build cash back to a minimum goal of $800 million.
DIS 第一季的營收貢獻約為 2,100 萬美元。交易完成後,我們的現金部位將下降,因為預計交易將消耗約 4.4 億美元的淨現金。我們將繼續將 2024 年的股票回購限制在必要的數額,以抵消股權薪酬和員工股票購買計劃帶來的稀釋,從而將現金返還至 8 億美元的最低目標。
Summing up, we delivered sales and earnings above the high end of our guidance range as memory and networking exceeded our plan in Semi Test, mainly driven by AI. The mobile, industrial and legacy auto markets remain soft. Our robotics team delivered to plan for the third consecutive quarter, as we continue to execute our new product development and go-to-market strategies. Overall, visibility beyond the second quarter is limited, given the increased level of turns business in Semi Test. Our first quarter performance and the improvement in our second quarter outlook elevates our confidence for the year. Midterm fundamentals remain intact, yielding continued optimism beyond 2024.
總而言之,我們的銷售額和收益高於我們的指導範圍的高端,因為記憶體和網路超出了我們在半測試中的計劃,這主要是由人工智慧驅動的。行動、工業和傳統汽車市場仍然疲軟。隨著我們繼續執行新產品開發和上市策略,我們的機器人團隊連續第三個季度實現了計劃。總體而言,鑑於半測試業務的增加,第二季之後的前景有限。我們第一季的業績和第二季前景的改善增強了我們對今年的信心。中期基本面保持完好,2024 年後仍將保持樂觀。
With that, I'll turn the call back to Traci. Traci?
這樣,我會將電話轉回特雷西。特蕾西?
Traci Tsuchiguchi
Traci Tsuchiguchi
Thanks. We will go ahead with questions.
謝謝。我們將繼續提出問題。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) The first question comes from the line of Mehdi Hosseini with SIG.
(操作員說明)第一個問題來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini 線路。
Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst
Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst
Yes. Two follow-up. It seems to me that despite the fact that you highlighted mobile as an area of weakness, it had already been dialed into your January guide or commentary for the full year. Would that be fair?
是的。兩個後續。在我看來,儘管您強調移動是一個薄弱領域,但它已經被納入您的一月份指南或全年評論中。這樣公平嗎?
Sanjay Mehta - CFO, VP & Treasurer
Sanjay Mehta - CFO, VP & Treasurer
Yes, it would, Mehdi.
是的,會的,邁赫迪。
Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst
Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst
Okay. And this brings up what I want to really ask you. When I look at TSMC, they just announced their annual report, and obviously, Apple's mix of revenue went up. And I'm using that as a kind of trying to better understand the dynamics. So if TSMC is running or generating more revenues, that means more chips for that particular customer is coming out. And at some point, utilization rate for those testers are going to hit that 85%, 90% threshold. And I'm trying to look beyond the next couple of quarters.
好的。這就提出了我真正想問你的問題。當我看台積電時,他們剛剛公佈了年度報告,顯然,蘋果的收入組合上升了。我用它來更好地理解動態。因此,如果台積電正在運作或產生更多收入,這意味著將為該特定客戶提供更多晶片。在某個時候,這些測試人員的利用率將達到 85%、90% 的門檻。我正在努力放眼未來幾季。
Are you also thinking that at some point in the next 2 to 4 quarters, those utilization rates are going to get to the point where even if that particular customer of TSM were to continue with kind of bifurcation of their technology node, they would still have to come back to the market and buy more testers?
您是否還認為,在未來 2 到 4 個季度的某個時刻,這些利用率將達到這樣的程度:即使 TSM 的特定客戶繼續對其技術節點進行某種分叉,他們仍然會擁有回到市場購買更多測試儀?
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Mehdi, this is Greg. I think you've got it right that utilization is continuing to increase. The equipment that is in place is being used quite efficiently through the year. So the loading is relatively constant. And we definitely believe that it's a matter of when, not if there's going to be a need for significant additional capacity to support that kind of product line.
邁赫迪,這是格雷格。我認為您說得對,利用率正在持續增加。全年使用現有設備的效率非常高。所以負載是相對恆定的。我們絕對相信,這只是時間問題,而不是是否需要大量額外產能來支援此類產品線。
Operator
Operator
Next question comes from the line of Vivek Arya with Bank of America Securities.
下一個問題來自 Vivek Arya 與美國銀行證券公司的關係。
Vivek Arya - MD in Equity Research & Senior Semiconductor Analyst
Vivek Arya - MD in Equity Research & Senior Semiconductor Analyst
On the compute TAM, the $1.5 billion, I think that's up roughly 15% from last year. When I look at the size of the accelerator market this year, it's supposed to double. So is that one kind of high-level way to look at how much the accelerator market is growing versus how much your tester compute TAM is growing? Or is there a different way? So for example if, let's say, the accelerated market grows 30% next year, what does that imply for your compute TAM?
在計算 TAM 上,即 15 億美元,我認為比去年增長了約 15%。當我看到今年加速器市場的規模時,它應該會增加一倍。那麼,這是一種查看加速器市場增長量與測試器計算 TAM 增長量的高級方法嗎?或者有什麼不同的方法嗎?舉例來說,如果加速市場明年成長 30%,這對您的運算 TAM 意味著什麼?
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Interesting question. Thinking about the TAM, that is the overall size of the market, so what we would get, what our competitor would get. And the size of the accelerator market has gone up a lot this year. Most of the testers to support this year's revenue in accelerators was put in place last year. So if the TAM that was supported last year supporting that sort of big growth that we've seen in the end market this year, what's going to happen this year, the $1.5 billion that we talked about is going to support a significant increase again next year.
有趣的問題。考慮 TAM,即市場的整體規模,我們會得到什麼,我們的競爭對手也會得到什麼。而且今年加速器市場的規模也有了很大的成長。大多數支援今年收入的加速器測試儀是在去年就位的。因此,如果去年受到支持的 TAM 支持我們今年在終端市場看到的那種大幅增長,那麼今年會發生什麼,我們談到的 15 億美元將在明年再次支持大幅增長年。
And this year, the primary beneficiary in terms of that end market is NVIDIA. What we're seeing now is that we are having some vertically integrated producers start to have significant ramps and they're already loading significant numbers of testers. The TAM in 2024 for compute is actually a little bit constrained below what it would otherwise be because these new entrants are actually able to work with their OSAT partners and convert idle testers that would have been in mobile into the compute space.
今年,該終端市場的主要受益者是 NVIDIA。我們現在看到的是,一些垂直整合的生產商開始出現顯著的成長,並且他們已經裝載了大量的測試人員。 2024 年計算領域的 TAM 實際上有點低於原本的水平,因為這些新進入者實際上能夠與他們的 OSAT 合作夥伴合作,並將行動裝置中的閒置測試人員轉換到運算領域。
So right now, the loading of compute testers is higher than it was than what you'd see in terms of the buys in the market. As mobile starts to come back, that means that there's less idle capacity to fill. It also means that the compute market is going to be translated into more direct buys.
因此,現在計算測試人員的負載比您在市場上看到的購買量要高。隨著行動裝置開始回歸,這意味著需要填補的閒置容量會減少。這也意味著計算市場將轉化為更直接的購買。
Sanjay Mehta - CFO, VP & Treasurer
Sanjay Mehta - CFO, VP & Treasurer
And if I could add just a quick comment. In my prepared remarks, we noted that the -- our estimate was revised for 2023 for the compute market. When I do the math of our midpoint of $1.5 billion in '24 versus our old, you do get a 15% increase, but we revised that in my prepared remarks, I noted to $1.4 billion. So I think the growth is 7% versus 15%. I just wanted to point that out.
如果我可以添加一個簡短的評論。在我準備好的發言中,我們注意到我們對 2023 年計算市場的估計進行了修訂。當我計算 24 年 15 億美元的中點與過去的相比時,確實增加了 15%,但我們在準備好的發言中對此進行了修改,我指出為 14 億美元。所以我認為成長率是 7% 和 15%。我只是想指出這一點。
Vivek Arya - MD in Equity Research & Senior Semiconductor Analyst
Vivek Arya - MD in Equity Research & Senior Semiconductor Analyst
And just a quick follow-up. A number of your WFE peers have started to see the benefits of 2-nanometer and gate-all-around. I'm wondering what does that mean for Teradyne? When will you start to see those benefits? And what does that mean for tester intensity? I assume that's more '25 or '26. Any color around that would be very useful.
只是快速跟進。許多 WFE 同行已經開始看到 2 奈米和環柵技術的優勢。我想知道這對泰瑞達意味著什麼?您什麼時候開始看到這些好處?這對於測試人員的強度意味著什麼?我認為這更多是'25或'26。周圍的任何顏色都會非常有用。
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Sure. So we are expecting to see some testers being used to support the engineering work in early parts in 2-nanometer probably towards the end of 2025. We don't expect any volume associated with 2-nanometer gate-all-around until 2026. And the way that we're looking at that right now is that there's nothing particularly idiosyncratic about that node in terms of tester demand.
當然。因此,我們預計可能會在 2025 年底之前看到一些測試儀被用來支援 2 奈米早期零件的工程工作。的方式是,就測試人員的需求而言,節點沒有什麼特別之處。
So we're thinking of it primarily as an enabler to more complex parts. There are a lot of parts, for example, for cloud AI training that at this point are actually reticle limited, and so anything to allow increased complexity within the same die size is likely to be soaked up by AI. And so the faster that 2-nanometer comes online, the faster these more complex parts will be developed, and those will likely have longer test times, higher test intensity, which will drive the TAM.
因此,我們主要將其視為更複雜部件的推動者。例如,雲端人工智慧訓練的許多部分實際上是有限的,因此任何允許在相同晶片尺寸內增加複雜性的東西都可能被人工智慧吸收。因此,2 奈米上線的速度越快,這些更複雜的零件的開發速度就越快,而這些零件的測試時間可能會更長、測試強度更高,這將推動 TAM 的發展。
Operator
Operator
Next question comes from the line of Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.
下一個問題來自 Toshiya Hari 與高盛的對話。
Toshiya Hari - MD
Toshiya Hari - MD
I had one question on memory and another one on your VIP business. On the memory side, you guys talked about a $1.25 billion TAM for '24. I was hoping you could provide a rough split between DRAM and NAND, how you're viewing the market, what the contribution could be from HBM, and if you can speak to your competitive position, your market share position within HBM, that would be helpful.
我有一個關於記憶的問題,還有一個關於您的 VIP 業務的問題。在記憶體方面,你們談論了 24 年 12.5 億美元的 TAM。我希望您能提供 DRAM 和 NAND 之間的粗略劃分、您如何看待市場、HBM 可以做出哪些貢獻,以及如果您能談談您的競爭地位、您在 HBM 中的市場份額地位,那就是有幫助。
Sanjay Mehta - CFO, VP & Treasurer
Sanjay Mehta - CFO, VP & Treasurer
Sure. Why don't I take the numbers, and maybe the competitive position, Greg, if you want to take? So the range that we provided was $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion, with the midpoint of $1.25 billion. And we think from a DRAM perspective, it's roughly 80% of that versus flash of 20%. Historically, I would say DRAM has been in the 40% and 50% of the overall memory market. So that's roughly the split. And then HBM we think is -- yes, we think that number is about $500 million. It's going to work upwards, but we think that number is above $500 million out of the $1.25 billion.
當然。為什麼我不拿這些數字,也許還有競爭地位,格雷格,如果你想拿的話?因此,我們提供的範圍是 12 億美元到 13 億美元,中間值為 12.5 億美元。我們認為,從 DRAM 的角度來看,這一比例大約是 80%,而快閃記憶體為 20%。從歷史上看,DRAM 佔據了整個記憶體市場的 40% 和 50%。這就是大致的劃分。然後,我們認為 HBM 是——是的,我們認為這個數字約為 5 億美元。它會向上發展,但我們認為這個數字在 12.5 億美元中超過了 5 億美元。
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
So in terms of competitive position, the share patterns that have existed for a few years are persisting. We have very high share in flash final test, we have strong share position in DRAM final test and we have a lower share position in both flat wafer sort and DRAM wafer sort. So what's happening in the memory market? Like last year, there was a lot of technology-driven buys that were pushing final test purchases. This year, the spark is coming back to the memory market, and that is driving the need for more capacity, and that is driving wafer sort purchases.
因此,就競爭地位而言,存在了幾年的份額格局仍在持續。我們在快閃記憶體最終測試中擁有非常高的份額,在 DRAM 最終測試中擁有強大的份額,而在平面晶圓分類和 DRAM 晶圓分類中我們的份額都較低。那麼內存市場發生了什麼事?與去年一樣,有許多技術驅動的購買推動了最終的測試購買。今年,記憶體市場重新煥發活力,這推動了對更多產能的需求,進而推動了晶圓類別的購買。
So there's no customer losses, but we are expecting to see our share come down a little bit this year as those wafer start capacity buys go in. Now the subtext underneath that is, HBM is a wafer-level technology, so all of the tests for HBM falls into that wafer sort space. And in HBM, last year, we had about 50% of the test TAM for HBM. This year, we're expecting that, that is going to come down modestly in terms of share. Our revenue is going to be up significantly, but the market is 5x bigger. So our share is probably going to float down a little bit as people begin to tool up next generation for the volume expansion in HBM.
因此,沒有客戶流失,但隨著晶圓啟動產能購買的增加,我們預計今年我們的份額會略有下降。分類空間。在 HBM 中,去年我們大約有 50% 的測試 TAM 是針對 HBM 的。今年,我們預計份額將小幅下降。我們的營收將大幅成長,但市場規模卻擴大了 5 倍。因此,隨著人們開始為 HBM 的容量擴展配備下一代工具,我們的份額可能會略有下降。
At the same time, we think that our opportunities for share gain in terms of new test insertions for HBM are quite good. And so we're projecting that we're going to be penetrating new customers and new test steps for that this year.
同時,我們認為,在 HBM 的新測試插入方面,我們獲得份額成長的機會非常好。因此,我們預計今年我們將滲透新客戶並採取新的測試步驟。
Toshiya Hari - MD
Toshiya Hari - MD
Great. And then as my follow-up on the VIP side, we've all seen quite a few announcements from the Googles, the Amazons, the Metas of the world in terms of what they're working on. I'm curious when those announcements kind of translate into revenue for you guys. I know it takes time for those projects to ramp. But I think you have pretty good visibility as a test provider, you're probably pulled into those projects early. So is it a '25 dynamic, is it '26? And how should we think about that contribution as some of those projects ramp?
偉大的。然後,作為我在 VIP 方面的後續行動,我們都看到了來自 Google、Amazon、世界各地的 Meta 的大量關於他們正在開發的內容的公告。我很好奇這些公告何時會轉化為你們的收入。我知道這些專案的推進需要時間。但我認為作為測試提供者,您具有相當好的知名度,您可能很早就參與了這些項目。那麼它是 25 世紀的動態,還是 26 世紀的動態呢?隨著其中一些項目的增加,我們應該如何看待這項貢獻?
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Well, from a vertically integrated producer perspective, it really kind of started back in like 2022, 2023. In 2024, like right now, there are hundreds of testers that are being used to test VIP source parts for us. And probably a similar number from our competitor. So it has happened. The thing that hasn't happened because of the -- the low utilization driven by the mobile slowdown, that hasn't translated into as much new tester purchases as we would have expected in a stronger market.
嗯,從垂直整合生產商的角度來看,它實際上是從 2022 年、2023 年開始的。我們的競爭對手可能也有類似的數字。所以它已經發生了。事情沒有發生是因為——移動放緩導致利用率低下,這並沒有轉化為我們在強勁市場中預期的那麼多新測試儀購買量。
But we have multiple VIP sockets that are loading more than 50 testers each, and we have a pipeline of new design starts that we are plan of record for that will stretch out all the way into 2026. So this is real. It's happening now, but the impact on our financial results has been muted by the low utilization because of the mobile downturn.
但我們有多個 VIP 插槽,每個插槽可加載 50 多個測試儀,並且我們有一系列新設計啟動的管道,我們計劃將其一直延續到 2026 年。現在這種情況正在發生,但由於行動業務低迷導致利用率低,因此對我們財務表現的影響已經減弱。
Operator
Operator
Next question comes from the line of C.J. Muse with Cantor Fitzgerald.
下一個問題來自 C.J. Muse 和 Cantor Fitzgerald 的台詞。
Christopher James Muse - Senior MD & Semiconductor Research Analyst
Christopher James Muse - Senior MD & Semiconductor Research Analyst
Yes. I guess first question, Greg, in your prepared remarks, you talked about cautiousness on the second half, though seeing better upside opportunity than downside risk. So I was hoping to dig deeper into that. If you could share what would be the end markets that could be upward (inaudible) as we progress through the year.
是的。我想第一個問題,格雷格,在你準備好的演講中,你談到了下半年的謹慎態度,儘管你看到了比下行風險更好的上行機會。所以我希望能更深入地研究這一點。如果您能分享隨著我們今年的進展,最終市場可能會上升(聽不清楚)。
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
So we have limited visibility, so just bear in mind that I'm going into the realm of speculation here. The things that could drive a higher second half is the leading edge of some sort of a recovery in mobile. Right now, we have a pretty low baseline baked into our plan. So essentially any capacity shortfalls would immediately turn into business.
所以我們的可見性有限,所以請記住,我在這裡進入的是猜測領域。下半年可能推動更高成長的因素是行動領域某種復甦的前沿。目前,我們的計劃中的基線相當低。因此,基本上任何產能短缺都會立即轉化為業務。
And then the other is, we've seen such a dramatic strengthening in the Compute segment with very short lead times in Q1. So that's what really drove our increased outlook for Q2. So we didn't see it coming. We had hints that it was coming. We thought it would be further out and smaller. It has come in bigger and faster than we expected. If that trend were to continue, then we'd see continued strengthening in the compute space, and that's another thing that could drive a second half up.
另一個是,我們在第一季的交付時間非常短的情況下看到了計算領域的顯著增強。這就是我們提高第二季前景的真正原因。所以我們沒有看到它的到來。我們有跡象表明它即將到來。我們認為它會更遠、更小。它的規模和速度都超出了我們的預期。如果這種趨勢持續下去,那麼我們會看到運算領域的持續增強,這是另一件可能推動下半年上漲的事情。
The other way to think about that is we don't really think that industrial and automotive is going to significantly strengthen in the year. That's more of a 2025 thing.
另一種思考方式是,我們並不真正認為工業和汽車產業今年會顯著走強。這更像是 2025 年的事。
Christopher James Muse - Senior MD & Semiconductor Research Analyst
Christopher James Muse - Senior MD & Semiconductor Research Analyst
Very helpful. As a follow-up, you talked briefly on Edge AI. And so I was curious to hear your thoughts on how you see that play out in the smartphone arena. It sounds like this is a year where everyone is trying to see what sticks and what use cases and then maybe next year is the year. Would love to hear whether you agree with that assessment? When you think the earliest we could see increased content to support Edge AI and smartphones? And how you see that playing out and impact Teradyne's test business?
很有幫助。作為後續,您簡要地談論了邊緣人工智慧。因此,我很想聽聽您對智慧型手機領域如何看待這種情況的看法。聽起來今年每個人都在嘗試看看什麼是持久的以及什麼用例,然後也許明年就是這一年。很想聽聽您是否同意這項評估?您認為我們最早什麼時候可以看到更多內容來支援邊緣人工智慧和智慧型手機?您如何看待這種情況的發生及其對泰瑞達測試業務的影響?
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Yes. So that's a great question. We've been having very rich discussions internally about this to try and figure out when you consider a smartphone to be AI-enabled. And we're thinking about it in terms of the complexity of the processor that goes into the phone. There have been neural processing units and AI features in phones for years. But now, the AI opportunity, the edge AI opportunity is driving things towards pushing the amount of silicon area used for AI up towards like 50% or 1/3 of the silicon area going into that.
是的。這是一個很好的問題。我們內部對此進行了非常豐富的討論,試圖弄清楚您何時認為智慧型手機具有人工智慧功能。我們正在考慮手機處理器的複雜性。手機中的神經處理單元和人工智慧功能已經存在多年了。但現在,人工智慧機會、邊緣人工智慧機會正在推動用於人工智慧的矽面積增加到該領域矽面積的 50% 或 1/3。
So those types of processors are just starting to hit the market now at the premium tier. And I think we've got about a year of people trying to figure out what kind of customer features will actually be compelling using that. And right now, there aren't that many of them. I think that, that's what's going to happen during the rest of 2024, that there's some premium smartphones and some people that are trying to innovate the things to do with them. I think the processer generation that's really going to start having enough power to do LLM stuff on a phone is probably the stuff that would ramp towards the end of 2025, and it would become much more mainstream in the generation of silicon coming out in '26.
因此,這些類型的處理器現在才剛開始進入高階市場。我認為我們花了大約一年的時間試圖找出什麼樣的客戶功能實際上會使用它來吸引人。而現在,這樣的人並不多。我認為,這就是 2024 年剩餘時間將發生的事情,一些高階智慧型手機和一些人正在嘗試創新與它們相關的事情。我認為真正開始擁有足夠能力在手機上完成 LLM 任務的處理器世代可能會在 2025 年底之前逐漸普及,並且在 26 年推出的晶片世代中它將變得更加主流。
Operator
Operator
Next question comes from the line of Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan Chase.
下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Samik Chatterjee。
Samik Chatterjee - Head of IT Hardware and Networking Equipment
Samik Chatterjee - Head of IT Hardware and Networking Equipment
Maybe just to stick with the mobile ecosystem a bit. Any sort of change in your thinking about the primary smartphone customer there? I know you've said previously, it's less than 10% is what your expectation for this year is. Just checking in terms of how much of the sort of change in 2Q or sort of thinking about the back half, any changes in how you think about the cadence of purchases from the primary customer or any change in your overall taking for the year for that customer.
也許只是為了堅持一點移動生態系統。您對那裡主要智慧型手機客戶的看法有什麼改變嗎?我知道你之前說過,你今年的預期不到10%。只需檢查第二季度的變化有多大,或者對後半段的思考,您對主要客戶購買節奏的看法是否有任何變化,或者您今年的總體收入有何變化顧客。
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
I hope I caught all of your question. If I didn't, then please correct me. We don't comment about specific customers. I will share that we don't expect that our historically largest customer will be a 10% customer this year. I'll also share that we think that there is more of -- that we've gotten sort of the bottom dialed into our plan, that there's definitely more upside to downside in terms of the plan associated with mobile in general.
我希望我能回答你所有的問題。如果我沒有,那麼請糾正我。我們不會對特定客戶發表評論。我想說的是,我們預計今年我們史上最大的客戶不會是 10% 的客戶。我還將分享,我們認為我們的計劃已經達到了底部,就與移動相關的計劃而言,總體上肯定有更多的好處和壞處。
Samik Chatterjee - Head of IT Hardware and Networking Equipment
Samik Chatterjee - Head of IT Hardware and Networking Equipment
Got it. And you got that question. So for my follow-up, if I can ask on robotics. Can you give us some sense of how you're thinking about first half versus second half there? And what's the -- right now, any updated thinking on profitability for the year for the business? How do you track in 1Q and sort of how you're thinking about the full year for robotics.
知道了。你有這個問題。因此,對於我的後續行動,我是否可以詢問機器人技術。能為我們介紹一下您對上半場和下半場的看法嗎?現在,對於該業務今年的獲利能力有什麼最新的想法嗎?您如何追蹤第一季的情況以及您對全年機器人技術的看法。
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
So I'll start off with sort of a qualitative answer in terms of the drivers, but then I'll pass it off to Sanjay to give you more of the precise split first half, second half and the profitability. So what's going on right now is we have a plan for the year that's going to be essentially sequentially growing quarter by quarter. And the reason that the plan is laid out that way is because there are new growth drivers that are coming online throughout the year. There are drivers that are in place from last year in Q1, that's specifically the UR20 and UR30, the heavy payload cobots.
因此,我將從關於驅動程式的定性答案開始,然後我會將其傳遞給 Sanjay,為您提供更多關於上半場、下半場和盈利能力的精確劃分。所以現在發生的事情是我們有一個今年的計劃,基本上將逐季度連續成長。之所以這樣制定計劃,是因為全年都有新的成長動力不斷湧現。去年第一季就已經安裝了一些驅動程序,特別是 UR20 和 UR30(重載協作機器人)。
In Q1, we had the announcement of the MiR1200 pallet jack. That's going to start really impacting revenue in the back half, primarily in the fourth quarter, but we're already taking orders. We're building backlog for that product. We also announced the collaboration with NVIDIA. That's going to really drive business through our OEM solution channel. So we're going to be providing the platform tools to that channel, so that they can create stuff that goes to market. So that's stuff that will also be back half loaded.
在第一季度,我們發布了 MiR1200 托盤搬運車。這將開始真正影響下半年的收入,主要是第四季度,但我們已經在接受訂單了。我們正在為該產品建立積壓訂單。我們也宣布了與 NVIDIA 的合作。這將真正透過我們的 OEM 解決方案管道推動業務發展。因此,我們將為該管道提供平台工具,以便他們可以創建進入市場的產品。所以這些東西也將被半載。
The other thing that's driving through the year is we are continuing to build our OEM channel and our large accounts channel. So those are things that we started. We started OEMs back in '22, we started large accounts in '23, and they have a significant amount of gestation time before they deliver revenue. We're right at the point where OEMs are starting to really click. We talked about the 58% year-on-year increase in that space. I'm expecting to see growth above the aggregate growth for large accounts in 2024. So that's going to be a growth driver through the end of the year.
今年推動的另一件事是我們正在繼續建立我們的 OEM 管道和大客戶管道。這些就是我們開始的事情。我們早在 22 年就開始了 OEM,我們在 23 年開始了大客戶,他們在交付收入之前有大量的醞釀時間。我們正處於原始設備製造商開始真正合作的時刻。我們談到了該領域同比增長 58%。我預計 2024 年的成長將高於大帳戶的整體成長。
So with that, I'll pass it off to Sanjay to give you sort of the precise breakdowns.
因此,我會將其傳遞給 Sanjay,以便為您提供精確的細分。
Sanjay Mehta - CFO, VP & Treasurer
Sanjay Mehta - CFO, VP & Treasurer
So roughly the first half of the year -- well, first, as Greg noted, we expect to grow sequentially in Q2, and we expect to grow throughout the year for the reasons Greg just noted. But in the first half, we have 42%-ish plus or minus, and then 58% in the back half of the year. We do expect to be profitable this year. I would say, over the year, and I would say that, that would be single-digit profitability. I will comment, I think you asked about Q1. We were not profitable just given the seasonality of the quarter. That should give you the context, I think that you asked.
因此,大約在今年上半年 - 嗯,首先,正如格雷格指出的那樣,我們預計第二季度將連續增長,並且由於格雷格剛才指出的原因,我們預計全年都會增長。但上半年,我們的正負率為 42% 左右,下半年則為 58%。我們預計今年將獲利。我想說,這一年的獲利能力將是個位數。我會發表評論,我想你問的是 Q1。考慮到本季的季節性,我們沒有獲利。我想你問過,這應該給你背景資訊。
Operator
Operator
Next question comes from the line of Krish Sankar with TD Cohen.
下一個問題來自 Krish Sankar 和 TD Cohen 的對話。
Krish Sankar - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Krish Sankar - MD & Senior Research Analyst
I had a couple of them. First one, on the memory side, how much of your memory revenues were from HBM in the March quarter. And I think Sanjay, you mentioned HBM revenues could grow 5x this year. I'm kind of curious, are you over-indexed to 1 customer, because my understanding is of the 3 HBM customers, 1 of them in sources, and within other 2, can you just talk a little bit about your share position there? Then I have a follow-up.
我有幾個。第一個是記憶體方面,您的記憶體收入中有多少來自於 3 月季度的 HBM。我認為 Sanjay,您提到 HBM 今年的收入可能會成長 5 倍。我有點好奇,您是否對 1 個客戶過度索引,因為我的理解是 3 個 HBM 客戶,其中 1 個是來源,另外 2 個是,您能簡單談談您在那裡的份額嗎?然後我有一個後續行動。
Sanjay Mehta - CFO, VP & Treasurer
Sanjay Mehta - CFO, VP & Treasurer
I'll take the first one on the memory in the quarter. Yes. So I want to say roughly about 45% of the memory revenue that we had was tied in the first quarter to HBM.
我將在本季度進行第一個關於內存的操作。是的。所以我想說,第一季我們大約 45% 的記憶體收入與 HBM 相關。
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Yes. So Krish, one quick comment. The 5x comment about HBM was referring to the market size for HBM memory. So last year was about $100 million of TAM for HBM. This year, we think it's about $500 million worth of TAM for HBM. Our revenue is not going to go up by a factor of 5. It's going to go up. It's going to go up significantly. But we're not going to be able to hold sort of the 50-ish percent share of HBM that we had last year.
是的。克里什,簡短評論一下。關於 HBM 的 5x 評論指的是 HBM 記憶體的市場規模。因此,去年 HBM 的 TAM 約為 1 億美元。今年,我們認為 HBM 的 TAM 價值約為 5 億美元。我們的收入不會增加 5 倍。將會大幅上漲。但我們將無法持有去年所擁有的 HBM 50% 左右的份額。
Are we over indexed to one customer? Well, the entire world is significantly over-indexed to one supplier in HBM. And that certainly has been driving our results to a great degree, both last year and will continue to drive our results this year. The other suppliers that are coming online. One of them is primarily internally based for test. We don't have any of that baked into our plan, although we think that they would be better off using our equipment, we haven't convinced them of that yet. And the other supplier in this space is a great customer of ours, although our share there is lower than our share in the leader in this space right now. So that's another reason that we expect to dilute our share a little bit this year.
我們是否過度索引某個客戶?嗯,整個世界對 HBM 的一家供應商的指數明顯過高。這無疑在很大程度上推動了我們去年的業績,並將繼續推動我們今年的業績。其他即將上線的供應商。其中之一主要是基於內部進行測試。我們的計劃中沒有任何內容,儘管我們認為他們使用我們的設備會更好,但我們還沒有說服他們這一點。這個領域的另一家供應商是我們的大客戶,儘管我們在該領域的份額低於我們目前在該領域領先者的份額。因此,這是我們預計今年會稍微稀釋我們份額的另一個原因。
The other point that I'll make is I was saying that we like our chances in terms of getting into new insertions for HBM memory this year. I think that, that's an important point. And we are hopeful that, that's going to be delivering significantly higher revenue for us through the midterm.
我要說的另一點是,我們希望今年有機會插入新的 HBM 記憶體。我認為這是很重要的一點。我們希望,這將在中期為我們帶來顯著更高的收入。
Krish Sankar - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Krish Sankar - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Very helpful, very helpful. And then just a quick follow-up. You spoke about your revenue trajectory for the year. You said September should be similar to June and then growth in 4Q. I was just curious because that seems to be against normal seasonality. So what's the deviation this year?
非常有幫助,非常有幫助。然後進行快速跟進。您談到了今年的營收軌跡。您說 9 月應該與 6 月相似,然後是第四季的成長。我只是很好奇,因為這似乎違反了正常的季節性。那麼今年的偏差是什麼呢?
Sanjay Mehta - CFO, VP & Treasurer
Sanjay Mehta - CFO, VP & Treasurer
Yes. Interesting question. I'd say that I remember several years back when we talked about we were going into a downturn and that downturn was 4 to 6 quarters, and the downturn has gone a lot longer in the way of mobility. And as Greg noted, we believe that our forecast considers mobility at a point where we feel comfortable that it's going to be achieved. And so I think as things pick back up, the historical seasonality, I put it in the context of some segments are going to be recovering and we have some new segments that are -- or some segments that are growing fairly well. So I think the seasonality comment with regards to the test perspective, or test portfolio of businesses we have. It's a little bit off this year.
是的。有趣的問題。我想說,我記得幾年前,當我們談論我們將陷入低迷時,低迷期持續了 4 到 6 個季度,而且在流動性方面,低迷期持續了更長的時間。正如格雷格指出的那樣,我們相信我們的預測將流動性考慮到了我們對實現這一目標感到滿意的程度。因此,我認為,隨著情況回升,歷史季節性,我將其放在某些細分市場將會復甦的背景下,我們有一些新的細分市場,或一些成長相當好的細分市場。因此,我認為季節性評論是關於測試角度或我們擁有的業務組合的測試。今年有點少了。
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
This is Greg. Just one additional bit of color. If you think about the seasonality pattern that we developed really for a decade, 2010 through 2021, that seasonality, if you looked at all of our segments with the exception of mobile, there wasn't a really marked seasonality. Like those automotive, compute, industrial, they kind of chugged along. The seasonality was really driven by the mobile TAM, and that was driven by consumer buying behavior, right, that you needed to have things for the holiday season and for Lunar New Year. All of that inventory needed to be built up. And so there was a concentration of capacity that would go in, in Q2 and Q3, with mobile not driving right now, the seasonality is very, very muted. So I would expect to see that the seasonality will return once the mobile market is stronger, but I don't think you can use normal patterns to predict the way things will look in '24.
這是格雷格。只需添加一點顏色即可。如果你考慮一下我們在 2010 年到 2021 年這十年間開發的季節性模式,如果你查看我們除行動裝置之外的所有細分市場,你會發現並沒有真正明顯的季節性。就像汽車、電腦、工業領域一樣,它們也一路緩慢前進。季節性實際上是由行動 TAM 驅動的,而這是由消費者購買行為驅動的,對吧,你需要為假期和農曆新年準備一些東西。所有這些庫存都需要建立。因此,第二季和第三季的產能將集中,由於行動裝置目前還沒有發揮作用,季節性非常非常溫和。因此,我預計一旦行動市場走強,季節性就會回歸,但我認為你不能使用正常模式來預測 24 年的情況。
Operator
Operator
Next question comes from the line of Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley.
下一個問題來自喬摩爾與摩根士丹利的對話。
Joseph Lawrence Moore - Executive Director
Joseph Lawrence Moore - Executive Director
I wonder if you could talk to the smartphone issues that you just mentioned. Away from your biggest customer, you sort of saw the smartphone suppliers reduce balance sheet inventory by 15, 20 days in Q4. And they talked about doing that again in Q1. So I would expect you to have low visibility, but shouldn't you get some recovery as they stop depleting that much inventory? Is there any kind of nuance in terms of how much of that inventory has been tested already in die bank, things like that. But shouldn't we have some optimism that this is going to get better.
我不知道你能否談談你剛才提到的智慧型手機問題。遠離你最大的客戶,你會看到智慧型手機供應商在第四季度將資產負債表庫存減少了 15、20 天。他們談到在第一季再次這樣做。所以我預計你的能見度會很低,但是當他們停止消耗那麼多庫存時,你不應該得到一些恢復嗎?有多少庫存已經在模具庫中進行了測試,諸如此類的事情,是否存在任何細微差別。但我們不應該對情況會變得更好持樂觀態度嗎?
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Well, I think we certainly have optimism that it can get better. And that's basically because we've dialed in the bottom. And the way we do this is we typically will look at tester utilization numbers. And frankly, those numbers are all over the map. Some indicators show that capacity is tightening. Other indicators are showing that it's relatively -- utilization is tightening. Others show that it's relatively flat. Our qualitative checks, when we are talking to people in the ecosystem, they are telling us that capacity -- that utilization is getting tighter and it's forecast to go up from there.
嗯,我認為我們當然樂觀地認為它會變得更好。這基本上是因為我們已經撥入了底部。我們這樣做的方式通常是查看測試人員的使用率數據。坦白說,這些數字遍布地圖上。一些指標顯示產能正在收緊。其他指標則顯示利用率正在相對收緊。其他人則表明它相對平坦。我們的定性檢查,當我們與生態系統中的人們交談時,他們告訴我們容量——利用率正在變得越來越緊張,並且預計會從此上升。
So the thing that, that hasn't done is it hasn't turned into firm forecast for additional business. And there is a fair amount of -- I think the lack of visibility that we see, it runs all the way through the supply chain that people are wondering what's going to happen. People are wondering how well handset sales will recover? And I think it's really going to come down to the way that the holiday season demand is shaping up. That's the thing that's going to be the lever that either turns on some additional spot buys or we'll have people waiting until 2025.
因此,尚未完成的事情是它尚未轉變為對額外業務的堅定預測。我認為我們看到了相當多的缺乏可見性,它貫穿整個供應鏈,人們想知道會發生什麼。人們想知道手機銷售恢復情況如何?我認為這實際上取決於假日季節需求的形成方式。這將成為要么開啟一些額外現貨購買的槓桿,要么讓人們等到 2025 年。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Brian Chin with Stifel.
謝謝。下一個問題來自 Brian Chin 和 Stifel 的對話。
Brian Edward Chin - Associate
Brian Edward Chin - Associate
Just to clarify, maybe firstly, was the third quarter pull-in, was that for AI, for compute, or for memory, or for both? And just to be clear, your share of the $200 million memory TAM increase, should we think about that being closer to, say, 40% if the emphasis is on wafer sort. And kind of sorry one more part to this. But I didn't catch this earlier, but if HBM demand is biased to a single customer, do you expect memory sales to be lumpy this year kind of from a quarterly perspective?
只是為了澄清,也許首先,第三季是否拉動,是針對人工智慧,計算,還是內存,還是兩者?需要明確的是,如果重點是晶圓排序,您在 2 億美元記憶體 TAM 中所佔的份額會增加,我們是否應該考慮接近 40%。對此還有一點抱歉。但我之前沒有註意到這一點,但如果 HBM 需求偏向單一客戶,那麼從季度角度來看,您是否預計今年記憶體銷售會出現波動?
Sanjay Mehta - CFO, VP & Treasurer
Sanjay Mehta - CFO, VP & Treasurer
Yes, I'll take the kind of the Q3 to Q2. It was, I'd say, mainly in compute and some ADAS that was accelerated and -- just looking up something.
是的,我會選擇Q3到Q2的那種。我想說,主要是在計算和一些 ADAS 加速方面,而且只是尋找一些東西。
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Yes. So in terms of the TAM increase, we moved the TAM up by $200 million. And I think -- I think your guess of $40 million is a bit low. I think we'll be up a bit more than -- we'll get a larger chunk of that up than that, probably in line with our historical share level, kind of 35% to 40% of that TAM increase should probably go to us. In terms of lumpy sales, no, I think actually the memory business is driving -- we have deliveries that will be stretching out through the year. And I think the demand is relatively steady and potentially increasing. So I think on a quarterly basis, we don't expect a lot of memory variation.
是的。因此,就 TAM 成長而言,我們將 TAM 上調了 2 億美元。我認為——我認為你對 4000 萬美元的猜測有點低。我認為我們的漲幅會比這更大一些,可能與我們的歷史份額水平一致,TAM 增長的 35% 到 40% 可能會流向我們。就不穩定的銷售而言,不,我認為實際上記憶體業務正在推動——我們的交付量將延長到全年。我認為需求相對穩定且有可能增加。因此,我認為按季度計算,我們預計記憶體不會有很大變化。
Brian Edward Chin - Associate
Brian Edward Chin - Associate
Okay. That's helpful. And then switching gears to robotics. It seems like your omnichannel and new product focus is driving a lot of this improved momentum in that business. But can you also just touch on the broader environment you're seeing in robotics, and where, if any, you see sort of macro like headwinds or tailwinds? And last part of that, what vertical or application was that customer that placed the record MiR order? And did that include any of the MiR1200s?
好的。這很有幫助。然後轉向機器人技術。看來您對全通路和新產品的關注正在很大程度上推動該業務的改善勢頭。但您能否也談談您在機器人技術中看到的更廣泛的環境,以及在哪裡(如果有的話)您看到了諸如逆風或順風之類的宏觀環境?最後一部分,下達 MiR 記錄訂單的客戶屬於哪個垂直領域或應用程式?其中是否包括任何 MiR1200?
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Okay. So in terms of the macro environment, it's pretty weak. I mean it was weak throughout 2023, and we don't see a significant improvement right now in terms of the end market conditions. If you look at PMIs, some regions are clicking up slightly, but we haven't really seen that turned into like a hot market. Having said that, we're in a part of the robotics market that is very, very low penetration. And so we are not -- we have seen our business results vary with the macro conditions, and we think that, that is indicative of the -- that was one of the things that drove us to go and make the changes in terms of adding new products and driving channel development, because we think we're 5% of the way into something that could be huge.
好的。所以從宏觀環境來看,它是相當弱的。我的意思是整個 2023 年都很疲軟,而且我們目前沒有看到終端市場狀況有顯著改善。如果你看一下採購經理人指數,一些地區的情況略有上升,但我們還沒有真正看到市場變得炙手可熱。話雖如此,我們所處的機器人市場滲透率非常非常低。所以我們不是 - 我們已經看到我們的業務結果隨宏觀條件而變化,我們認為,這表明 - 這是促使我們在增加方面做出改變的因素之一新產品和推動渠道開發,因為我們認為我們已經完成了5% 的工作,而這可能是一件巨大的事情。
And if that's the case, then we should be somewhat immune to these cycles. But we've been looking at like industrial robot competitors and their results this quarter have been pretty meager. Like especially if you look at their incoming order rates, which is more comparable, they have long lead times. We have short lead times. So it's better for us to compare their orders to our orders. We feel like we are doing far better than they are in these end market conditions. But we're really focused on kind of controlling our own destiny by finding the things that need support even when the end market is (inaudible).
如果是這樣的話,那麼我們應該在某種程度上免受這些週期的影響。但我們一直在關注工業機器人競爭對手,他們本季的業績相當微薄。尤其是如果你看一下他們的進貨訂單率,這更具可比性,他們的交貨時間很長。我們的交貨時間很短。因此,我們最好將他們的訂單與我們的訂單進行比較。我們覺得在這些終端市場條件下我們的表現比他們好得多。但我們真正關注的是透過找到需要支持的東西來控制我們自己的命運,即使最終市場(聽不清楚)也是如此。
One thing that I'll say is looking at other sort of industrial analyst notes and talking to people in that space, they are expecting improved strength like they think that things are going to get better, not worse. So I'm optimistic that we're going to have some macro tailwinds in addition to the plan that we baked, that's kind of counting on things staying around where they are.
我要說的一件事是,查看其他類型的工業分析師報告並與該領域的人們交談,他們期待實力的提高,就像他們認為事情會變得更好,而不是更糟。因此,我樂觀地認為,除了我們制定的計劃之外,我們還會有一些宏觀的推動力,這有點依賴事情保持在原地。
Operator
Operator
Next question comes from the line of Gus Richard with Northland Capital.
下一個問題來自 Gus Richard 與 Northland Capital 的關係。
Auguste Philip Richard - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Auguste Philip Richard - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Congratulations on the results. On the Industrial Automation, you've got a partnership with NVIDIA on AI. And sort of one on the limiters to penetration is the lack of a VAR channel, having to have to work with people to implement this stuff. Does multimodal AI or AI in general sort of simplify the implementation? Can you simplify the programming and implementation of robotics with that infusion of AI?
祝賀結果。在工業自動化方面,您與 NVIDIA 在 AI 方面建立了合作夥伴關係。限制滲透率的一個因素是缺乏 VAR 管道,必須與人們合作來實施這些東西。多模式人工智慧或一般人工智慧是否會簡化實施?您能否透過人工智慧的注入來簡化機器人的程式設計和實作?
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Yes. So for sure, the great thing about AI, there are two primary benefits to AI. One is that it's far easier to design a solution that is able to deal with variation, whether it's part variation or location variation or other uncertainties that exist in normal manufacturing environments, the solutions end up being far more resilient. So that means that more people would be willing to adopt them.
是的。因此,可以肯定的是,人工智慧的偉大之處在於,人工智慧有兩個主要好處。一是設計能夠處理變化的解決方案要容易得多,無論是零件變化還是位置變化或正常製造環境中存在的其他不確定性,解決方案最終都更具彈性。這意味著更多的人願意採用它們。
People don't want to put fragile things into production and AI will help make things more robust. The simplicity of developing things is definitely a huge benefit of AI. So the demonstration that we did at GTC was a pretty sophisticated visual inspection application. And because we were leveraging a really powerful AI stack from NVIDIA, we were able to put that together in less than 2 weeks. It was a very fast turnaround to be able to build that solution. And we expect that both customers and customers and especially solution providers are going to be able to leverage that and create solutions to categories of problems that will help drive growth.
人們不想將脆弱的東西投入生產,人工智慧將有助於讓東西變得更堅固。開發事物的簡單性無疑是人工智慧的巨大優勢。因此,我們在 GTC 上所做的演示是一個非常複雜的視覺檢測應用程式。由於我們利用了 NVIDIA 非常強大的 AI 堆棧,因此我們能夠在不到 2 週的時間內將其組合在一起。能夠建立該解決方案的周轉速度非常快。我們希望客戶和客戶,尤其是解決方案提供者都能夠利用這一點,為有助於推動成長的問題類別創建解決方案。
Auguste Philip Richard - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Auguste Philip Richard - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Got it. And then on the semi test side, you've got sort of -- it's going to be a while before we get to 2 nanometers, yields at 3. I don't think we're that great. And the AI accelerators are reticle limited. How are you seeing the expansion of use of chiplets sort of beyond AI accelerators and servers and FPGAs. Is that beginning to broaden out?
知道了。然後在半測試方面,我們還需要一段時間才能達到 2 奈米,產量達到 3。而且人工智慧加速器的標線是有限的。您如何看待小晶片的使用擴展到人工智慧加速器、伺服器和 FPGA 以外的領域。這是否開始擴大?
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Not really. Well, one thing is that most of the advanced packaging capacity in the world has been consumed by the people who are doing cloud AI, high-performance computing. So there's more demand than there is supply for it. So I think that's limiting it to the markets that are willing to pay the most for the ability to do it. I think that it's possible that chiplet technology will migrate out of high-performance computing potentially -- I mean it could potentially migrate into some mobile applications. I think that's going to be a relatively slow process because the price points are very, very different.
並不真地。嗯,有一點是,世界上大部分的先進封裝產能都被做雲端AI、高效能運算的人消耗掉了。因此,需求多於供給。因此,我認為這將其限制在那些願意為實現這一目標支付最高費用的市場中。我認為小晶片技術有可能從高效能運算中遷移出來——我的意思是它有可能遷移到某些行動應用程式。我認為這將是一個相對緩慢的過程,因為價格點非常非常不同。
And then I think for industrial and automotive AI applications, it's likely to be a long time before you see chiplet technology in there because of the reliability and temperature range questions. It's a much more challenging environment to try and put packages. But that's kind of my view. I think that there are people that have a more aggressive view in terms of where chiplets will go.
然後,我認為對於工業和汽車人工智慧應用,由於可靠性和溫度範圍問題,可能需要很長時間才能看到小晶片技術。嘗試和放置軟體包是一個更具挑戰性的環境。但這是我的看法。我認為有些人對小晶片的發展方向有更正面的看法。
Operator
Operator
We have time for one last question. The next question comes from the line of Steve Barger with KeyBanc Capital Markets.
我們還有時間回答最後一個問題。下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Steve Barger。
Robert Stephen Barger - MD & Equity Research Analyst
Robert Stephen Barger - MD & Equity Research Analyst
I'll be quick. Greg, you said share gain opportunities in HBM are good. Is that primarily due to you having capacity to support a fast-growing addressable market, or is there something unique in your current or future testers that will make you a supplier of choice for some variations of HBM?
我會快點的。 Greg,您說過 HBM 的分享收益機會很好。這主要是因為您有能力支援快速成長的目標市場,還是您目前或未來的測試儀中是否有一些獨特之處,使您成為 HBM 某些變體的首選供應商?
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
I think it's definitely the latter. So we believe we have a differentiated solution, both in terms of ability to support data rates out through HBM 4 and also in terms of being able to use same platform across multiple insertions. So we think that we have an ability to deliver more cost-effective performance test of HBM, and we believe that we're going to make some progress there.
我想肯定是後者。因此,我們相信我們擁有差異化的解決方案,無論是在透過 HBM 4 支援資料速率的能力方面,還是在能夠跨多個插入使用相同平台方面。因此,我們認為我們有能力提供更具成本效益的 HBM 性能測試,我們相信我們將在這方面取得一些進展。
Robert Stephen Barger - MD & Equity Research Analyst
Robert Stephen Barger - MD & Equity Research Analyst
Understood. And for the large account channel in robotics, you said there's a gestation time before revenue. Was this largest ever MiR order a function of work prior done to the pivot? Or did it come after? And then to your point about being more immune to cycles, is that just because large accounts are more likely to invest through cycles and are less swayed by near-term conditions?
明白了。對於機器人領域的大客戶管道,您說過在收入之前有一個醞釀時間。這個有史以來最大的 MiR 訂單是樞軸之前完成的工作的函數嗎?還是後來才出現的?然後,關於您對週期更有免疫力的觀點,是否只是因為大帳戶更有可能透過週期進行投資,並且較少受到近期狀況的影響?
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Yes. So let me take the large account question first. And I need to apologize to Brian because I didn't answer his question before. So the largest order that we've ever gotten from MiR, it came from an automotive customer. And it is also our historically largest customer for MiR. By no coincidence, it's also a significantly large customer for UR. So we have been selling them robots for a long time. The one thing that has happened since we established our large account effort is that we've been applying many of the strategic account management techniques that we've been using for decades in semiconductor test towards addressing those accounts and really organizing ourselves around the way that those large accounts acquire new equipment and also how to take care of the equipment that they have. So I think it's certainly an account that predated that effort, but I think our ability to serve that account has improved with this effort.
是的。那我先來談談大帳戶問題。我需要向布萊恩道歉,因為我之前沒有回答他的問題。我們從 MiR 獲得的最大訂單來自汽車客戶。而且它也是我們史上 MiR 最大的客戶。並非巧合的是,它也是 UR 的大客戶。所以我們長期以來一直向他們出售機器人。自從我們建立大型客戶工作以來發生的一件事是,我們一直在應用我們在半導體測試中使用了數十年的許多戰略客戶管理技術來解決這些客戶問題,並真正圍繞以下方式組織我們自己:這些大客戶購買新設備,以及如何保養他們擁有的設備。所以我認為這肯定是一個早於這項工作的帳戶,但我認為我們為該帳戶提供服務的能力透過這項工作得到了提升。
Robert Stephen Barger - MD & Equity Research Analyst
Robert Stephen Barger - MD & Equity Research Analyst
And then just about being more immune to cycles, is that because large accounts will invest through cycles? And so that pivot will make you less cyclical yourself?
然後就是更不受週期的影響,是因為大帳戶會透過週期進行投資嗎?那麼這個支點會讓你自己的週期性減少嗎?
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
Gregory S. Smith - President, CEO & Director
I think actually, the large accounts may be the segment that has -- that will continue to be sensitive to end market conditions, because large accounts will work off of budgets. And if they don't provide budgets for automation, then those purchases won't happen. The thing that we're really trying to do is make sure that we are adding enough new opportunities to drive growth even if end market conditions are weak.
我認為實際上,大客戶可能會繼續對終端市場狀況敏感,因為大客戶將超出預算。如果他們不提供自動化預算,那麼這些採購就不會發生。我們真正想做的事情是確保即使終端市場狀況疲軟,我們也能增加足夠的新機會來推動成長。
So a key part of this is being able to find and serve customers that have these problems. We have 95% of this market that is as yet unserved. So there is plenty of opportunity. And the key thing that we're trying to do is to pick our shots, pick the specific industry verticals and the specific applications that are likely to be driving growth independent of the aggregate macro conditions.
因此,其中的關鍵部分是能夠找到並服務有這些問題的客戶。我們有 95% 的市場尚未得到服務。所以有很多機會。我們要做的關鍵事情是選擇我們的鏡頭,選擇可能獨立於整體宏觀條件推動成長的特定行業垂直領域和特定應用程式。
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, we have reached the end of question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the floor over to Traci Tsuchiguchi for closing comments.
女士們、先生們,問答環節已經結束。現在我想請 Tracy Tsuchiguchi 發表結束評論。
Traci Tsuchiguchi
Traci Tsuchiguchi
Great. Thank you all for joining us this morning for our first quarter earnings call. We look forward to being in touch with you all through the course of the quarter. Thank you. Good day.
偉大的。感謝大家今天早上參加我們的第一季財報電話會議。我們期待在整個季度與您保持聯繫。謝謝。再會。
Operator
Operator
This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time.
今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。