泰瑞達 (TER) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Q3 2024 Teradyne Incorporated earnings conference call.

女士們、先生們，美好的一天，歡迎參加泰瑞達公司 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Please note, this conference is being recorded.

請注意，本次會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to turn the conference over to the Vice President of Investor Relations, Traci Tsuchiguchi.

現在我想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 Traci Tsuchiguchi。

Please go ahead, ma'am.

請繼續，女士。

Thank you, operator.

謝謝你，接線生。

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our discussion of Teradyne's most recent financial results.

大家早安，歡迎來到我們對泰瑞達最新財務表現的討論。

I'm joined this morning by our CEO, Greg Smith; and our CFO, Sanjay Mehta.

今天早上我們的執行長格雷格史密斯 (Greg Smith) 也加入了我的行列。以及我們的財務長桑傑梅塔 (Sanjay Mehta)。

Following our opening remarks, we'll provide details of our performance for the third quarter of 2024 and our outlook for the fourth quarter of '24.

在我們的開場白之後，我們將提供 2024 年第三季業績的詳細資訊以及對 24 年第四季的展望。

The press release containing our third quarter results was issued last evening.

包含我們第三季業績的新聞稿於昨晚發布。

We are providing slides as well as a copy of this earnings script on the Investor page of the Teradyne website that may be helpful in following the discussion.

我們在泰瑞達網站的投資者頁面上提供了幻燈片以及此收益腳本的副本，這可能有助於追蹤討論。

Replays of this call will be available via the same page after the call ends.

通話結束後，可以透過同一頁面重播此通話。

The matters that we discuss today will include forward-looking statements that involve risk factors that could cause the current results to differ materially from management's current expectations.

我們今天討論的事項將包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述涉及可能導致當前結果與管理層當前預期有重大差異的風險因素。

We caution listeners not to place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements included in this presentation.

我們提醒聽眾不要過度依賴本簡報中的任何前瞻性陳述。

We encourage you to review the safe harbor statement contained in slides accompanying this presentation as well as the risk factors described in our annual report on Form 10-K filed with the SEC.

我們鼓勵您查看本簡報附帶的幻燈片中包含的安全港聲明以及我們向 SEC 提交的 10-K 表格年度報告中所述的風險因素。

Additionally, these forward-looking statements are made only as of today.

此外，這些前瞻性陳述僅在今天作出。

During today's call, we will refer to non-GAAP financial measures.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將提及非公認會計準則財務指標。

We have posted additional information concerning these non-GAAP financial measures, including reconciliations to most directly comparable GAAP financial measures, were available on the Investor page of our website.

我們已經發布了有關這些非 GAAP 財務指標的更多信息，包括與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的調整表，這些資訊可在我們網站的投資者頁面上找到。

Looking ahead between now and our next earnings call, Teradyne expects to participate in technology or industrial-focused conferences hosted by RW Baird and UBS.

展望從現在到下一次財報電話會議，泰瑞達預計將參加 RW Baird 和瑞銀主辦的以技術或工業為重點的會議。

Additionally, please note that we are planning to host a financial analyst meeting at our headquarters in North Reading, Massachusetts in the afternoon of March 11, 2025.

此外，請注意，我們計劃於 2025 年 3 月 11 日下午在馬薩諸塞州北雷丁市總部舉辦金融分析師會議。

Following Greg and Sanjay's comments this morning, we'll open up the call for questions.

在格雷格和桑傑今天早上發表評論之後，我們將開始提問。

This call is scheduled for one hour.

這次通話預計持續一小時。

Greg?

格雷格？

Thanks, Tracy.

謝謝，特雷西。

Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us.

大家早安，感謝您加入我們。

Today, I will summarize our third quarter results and discuss the trends we are seeing in the semiconductor and advanced robotics industry.

今天，我將總結我們第三季的業績，並討論我們在半導體和先進機器人產業看到的趨勢。

Sanjay will then provide more color on our third quarter results and forward-looking guidance.

然後，桑傑將為我們的第三季業績和前瞻性指導提供更多資訊。

Generally, the market dynamics that we identified in our July earnings call have continued through the third quarter.

總體而言，我們在 7 月的財報電話會議中確定的市場動態一直持續到第三季。

The ongoing strength of Cloud AI is driving demand in both the SOC and memory test markets and our Semiconductor business is performing above our expectations.

雲端人工智慧的持續優勢正在推動 SOC 和記憶體測試市場的需求，我們的半導體業務的表現超出了我們的預期。

Within SemiTest, the memory business delivered record high revenue in the third quarter on strong HPM demand.

在 SemiTest 內部，由於強勁的 HPM 需求，記憶體業務在第三季度實現了創紀錄的高收入。

Our SoC business was driven by networking and by vertically integrated producers or VIPs who are designing silicon for their own use in cloud and edge AI applications.

我們的 SoC 業務是由網路以及垂直整合的生產商或 VIP 推動的，他們正在設計供自己在雲端和邊緣人工智慧應用中使用的晶片。

Beyond compute and memory, we're beginning to see stabilization and in some cases, modest levels of improvement in our other SemiTest segments.

除了計算和記憶體之外，我們開始看到其他 SemiTest 領域的穩定性，在某些情況下還有適度的改進。

We are seeing utilization rates continue to tick higher as testers initially purchased for mobile are increasingly being upgraded to test cloud AI compute devices.

我們看到利用率繼續上升，因為最初為行動裝置購買的測試儀越來越升級為測試雲端人工智慧運算設備。

By the beginning of 2024, our lead times had returned to normal, and while our customers are not generally providing forecasts beyond a quarter or two, which limits our visibility, we do expect a broader market recovery as we progress through 2025.

到2024 年初，我們的交貨時間已恢復正常，雖然我們的客戶通常不會提供超過一兩個季度的預測，這限制了我們的可見性，但我們確實預計，隨著2025 年的進展，市場將出現更廣泛的復甦。

Robotics powered by channel transformation and SAM expansion continues to outpace its peer group as it operates in a difficult macro industrial environment that has now persisted for more than two years.

在通路轉型和 SAM 擴張的推動下，機器人技術繼續領先於同行，因為它在困難的宏觀工業環境中運營，而這種環境已經持續了兩年多。

Hosting in on Q3.

於第三季舉辦。

We delivered third quarter financial results at the high end of our revenue guidance range and above the high end of our gross margin and earnings guidance ranges.

我們交付的第三季財務表現處於收入指引範圍的高端，並且高於毛利率和收益指引範圍的高端。

Memory and SOC came in above our plan, driven mainly by AI applications.

內存和 SOC 超出了我們的計劃，主要由人工智慧應用驅動。

In Q3, Cloud AI drove compute revenue with notable strength in networking devices.

第三季度，雲端人工智慧在網路設備方面的顯著優勢推動了運算收入的成長。

As we have discussed in the past, AI-enabled data centers require much denser networks and our incumbent leadership position in networking combined with shipments to VIPs has resulted in a considerable shift in our revenue mix.

正如我們過去所討論的，支援人工智慧的資料中心需要更密集的網絡，而我們在網路方面現有的領導地位加上向 VIP 的出貨量導致我們的收入結構發生了重大轉變。

This year, we expect our revenue from compute to be 4x what it was in 2023.

今年，我們預計計算收入將是 2023 年的 4 倍。

We are increasing our SOC TAM forecast for the compute market segment by $200 million from $1.6 billion to $1.8 billion in 2024.

我們將 SOC TAM 對計算市場的預測增加了 2 億美元，從 16 億美元增加到 2024 年的 18 億美元。

This compares to $1.4 billion in 2023, approximately 30% year-over-year TAM growth.

相較之下，2023 年 TAM 成長率為 14 億美元，較去年同期成長約 30%。

The VIP portion of the compute TAM is growing fast, and our current estimate of this market for 2024 is approximately $300 million, of which we have roughly 50% share.

計算 TAM 的 VIP 部分正在快速成長，我們目前估計該市場到 2024 年約為 3 億美元，我們擁有其中約 50% 的份額。

In memory, AI-driven HPM DRAM demand remains very strong, and AI servers are driving demand for enterprise SSD NAND flash.

在記憶體方面，人工智慧驅動的HPM DRAM需求仍然非常強勁，人工智慧伺服器正在推動企業級SSD NAND快閃記憶體的需求。

Our memory business is at record levels, driven by volume shipments for DRAM wafer store and HBM stack die test.

在 DRAM 晶圓儲存和 HBM 堆疊晶片測試的批量出貨的推動下，我們的記憶體業務達到了創紀錄的水平。

We are revising our estimated memory TAM expectation for the year to approximately $1.4 billion, above our prior estimate range of 1.2 to 1.3.

我們正在將今年的記憶體 TAM 預期修改為約 14 億美元，高於我們先前 1.2 至 1.3 的估計範圍。

The memory tester TAM in 2024 is now expected to be over 35% higher than the last peak in 2021, we note that the 2024 memory TAM includes a big slug of initial tooling for HBM at multiple memory suppliers.

目前預計 2024 年的記憶體測試儀 TAM 將比 2021 年的上一個峰值高出 35% 以上，我們注意到 2024 年的記憶體 TAM 包括多個記憶體供應商的大量 HBM 初始工具。

It's likely that the HBM TAM will flatten or reduce in 2025.

HBM TAM 可能會在 2025 年趨於平緩或減少。

Moving on to Q4.

繼續進入第四季。

Cloud AI demand is expected to continue into the fourth quarter.

雲端人工智慧需求預計將持續到第四季。

However, given the surge of memory shipments in the third quarter, we expect that our memory revenue will moderate in the fourth, while SemiTest has consistently outperformed our expectations this year, our other test businesses have continued to see softer demand.

然而，鑑於第三季記憶體出貨量的激增，我們預計第四季度我們的記憶體收入將放緩，而SemiTest今年的表現一直好於我們的預期，我們的其他測試業務的需求將繼續疲軟。

Our wireless business, in particular, has been impacted by the slower-than-expected ramp of WiFi 7 in access points, PCs and laptops.

我們的無線業務尤其受到存取點、個人電腦和筆記型電腦中 WiFi 7 成長速度慢於預期的影響。

Our HD business continues to wait for our primary customer to work through capacity and our production board test business continues to be weak, mainly due to low demand from Tier 1 automotive OEMs.

我們的高清業務繼續等待我們的主要客戶充分利用產能，而我們的生產板測試業務仍然疲軟，這主要是由於一級汽車原始設備製造商的需求較低。

Now turning to robotics.

現在轉向機器人技術。

Despite roughly flat quarter-on-quarter revenue, our robotics business has delivered 8% year-to-date growth despite a worsening industrial macro backdrop.

儘管季度收入大致持平，但在工業宏觀背景惡化的情況下，我們的機器人業務今年迄今仍實現了 8% 的成長。

We see our industrial automation players with year-over-year declines averaging more than 10%.

我們看到工業自動化廠商的年平均下滑超過 10%。

While the basic demand drivers for advanced robotics remain, low penetration rate the demographics of an aging population, fewer young workers willing to do factory work and the compellingly short ROI, the industrial market that we serve is inherently cyclical, and our customers have significantly cut back on capital investment plans.

雖然先進機器人技術的基本需求驅動因素仍然存在，但人口老化、滲透率低、願意在工廠工作的年輕工人越來越少以及投資回報率極低，但我們服務的工業市場本質上是週期性的，我們的客戶已經大幅削減了成本。

We believe a more appropriate short-term indicator of progress is to consider performance relative to the peer group rather than an absolute growth metric for this business, to consider absolute growth, one needs to look over a complete business cycle.

我們認為，更合適的短期進展指標是考慮相對於同業的業績，而不是該業務的絕對成長指標，要考慮絕對成長，需要審視整個商業週期。

Even in the adverse business environment, the robotics team is seeing good progress in executing its growth strategy.

即使在不利的商業環境中，機器人團隊在執行其成長策略方面也取得了良好進展。

Our highest priority in robotics go-to-market transformation is the development of the OEM solutions channel for

我們在機器人市場轉型中的首要任務是開發 OEM 解決方案管道

[UR].

[你]。

This channel is highly valuable because customers purchasing cobot based solutions from these partners get into production more quickly and have fewer problems than customers that develop custom solutions.

該管道非常有價值，因為從這些合作夥伴那裡購買基於協作機器人的解決方案的客戶比開發客製化解決方案的客戶能夠更快地投入生產，並且遇到的問題更少。

In the first three quarters of the year, OEM revenue at UR is up over 50% compared to 2023.

今年前三季度，UR 的 OEM 營收較 2023 年成長了 50% 以上。

Innovation-driven SAM expansion is central to outgrowing the market.

創新驅動的 SAM 擴展是超越市場的核心。

The new heavy payload UR robots that began shipping late last year have lasted well in the market and represents 16% of UR units shipped year-to-date.

去年年底開始出貨的新型重載 UR 機器人在市場上表現良好，佔今年迄今出貨的 UR 設備的 16%。

The OEM growth and new product revenue essentially account for Teradyne Robotics outperforming our peer group in budget-constrained market conditions.

OEM 成長和新產品收入基本上是泰瑞達機器人在預算有限的市場條件下超越同行的原因。

We expect innovation-driven growth to continue in Q4.

我們預計第四季度創新驅動的成長將持續。

The MIR 1200 Palo Jack is a breakthrough product that brings NVIDIA-powered AI to solve a tough problem in the physical industrial world.

MIR 1200 Palo Jack 是一款突破性產品，它採用 NVIDIA 驅動的 AI 來解決實體工業世界中的難題。

Our beta customer trials have completed successfully, and we expect commercial shipments to begin late this quarter.

我們的測試版客戶試驗已成功完成，我們預計商業出貨將於本季末開始。

Earlier this week, UR launched its AI accelerator, which is a ready-to-use hardware and software toolkit that will reduce time to market for AI-based workcell robotic solutions for UR's partners.

本週早些時候，UR 推出了人工智慧加速器，這是一個即用型硬體和軟體工具包，將為 UR 合作夥伴縮短基於人工智慧的工作單元機器人解決方案的上市時間。

To sum up, based on year-to-date outperformance of our SemiTest business and partially offset by the softer environment outside of Semi Test, we expect total company revenue growth of approximately 5%, up from our prior expectation of low single-digit revenue growth from 2023.

總而言之，基於我們的 SemiTest 業務今年迄今的優異表現，並被 Semi Test 之外的疲軟環境所部分抵消，我們預計公司總收入增長約為 5%，高於我們之前較低個位數收入的預期從2023 年開始成長。

As a reminder, excluding the impact of the sale of DIS to Technoprobe, our 2024 revenue growth would be a couple of percentage points higher.

提醒一下，排除將 DIS 出售給 Technoprobe 的影響，我們 2024 年的營收成長將高出幾個百分點。

Our third quarter results have reinforced our belief that AI is a transformational secular growth driver across Teradyne's businesses, both in test and in robotics.

我們第三季的業績強化了我們的信念，即人工智慧是泰瑞達業務（無論是在測試領域還是在機器人領域）的轉型性長期成長驅動力。

It is powering demand in Semi Test and powering innovative products in robotics.

它推動了半測試的需求並推動了機器人技術的創新產品。

We expect that this will only accelerate in the years ahead.

我們預計這種情況在未來幾年只會加速。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Sanjay.

這樣，我會將電話轉給 Sanjay。

Sanjay?

桑傑？

Thank you, Greg.

謝謝你，格雷格。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

Today, I'll cover the financial summary of Q3, provide our Q4 outlook and provide some color around 2025.

今天，我將介紹第三季的財務摘要，提供我們第四季度的展望，並提供 2025 年左右的一些資訊。

Now to Q3.

現在到第三季。

Third quarter sales were $737 million, which was at the high end of our guidance with non-GAAP EPS of $0.90, which was above our high-end guide of $0.86, non-GAAP gross margins were 59.7%.

第三季銷售額為 7.37 億美元，處於我們指引的高端，非 GAAP 每股收益為 0.90 美元，高於我們 0.86 美元的高端指導，非 GAAP 毛利率為 59.7%。

This was above our high guidance due primarily to product mix.

這主要是由於產品組合的原因，高於我們的高指引。

Non-GAAP operating expenses were $275 million, up sequentially and year-over-year, consistent with our guidance as we invest in targeted opportunities to drive long-term growth.

非 GAAP 營運費用為 2.75 億美元，環比和同比增長，與我們的指導一致，因為我們投資於有針對性的機會以推動長期成長。

Non-GAAP operating profit was approximately 22%.

非 GAAP 營業利潤約 22%。

Turning to our revenue breakdown in Q3.

轉向我們第三季的營收細分。

Semi Test revenue for the quarter was $543 million, with SoC contributing $393 million and memory $150 million.

該季度半測試收入為 5.43 億美元，其中 SoC 貢獻 3.93 億美元，記憶體貢獻 1.5 億美元。

Strength in SOC was driven by compute, while mobile and industrial continued to ship at a consistent level with Q2.

SOC 的實力由計算驅動，而移動和工業的出貨量繼續與第二季度保持一致。

Memory Test revenue was driven by HVM DRAM shipments flash tooling for new UFS 4.0 standard in Mobility and DRAM wafer sort.

記憶體測試收入由 HVM DRAM 出貨快閃記憶體工具推動，該工具適用於行動性和 DRAM 晶圓分類中的新 UFS 4.0 標準。

In memory, we continue to expect DRAM to dominate the memory mix at over 80% of the memory TAM in 2024.

在記憶體方面，我們繼續預期 DRAM 在 2024 年將在記憶體組合中佔據主導地位，佔記憶體 TAM 的比例超過 80%。

In System Test group, Q3 revenue was $73 million with continued weakness across the businesses.

在系統測試部門，第三季營收為 7,300 萬美元，但各業務持續疲軟。

Production Board Test business decline was driven by weakness in the automotive end market.

生產板測試業務下滑是由於汽車終端市場疲軟。

Storage Test weakness in SLT was tied to the mobile end market, while the HDD end market is recovering, the demand is being satisfied with underutilized test capacity.

SLT 儲存測試的弱點與行動裝置市場有關，而 HDD 端市場正在復甦，未充分利用的測試能力正在滿足需求。

In wireless test, revenue was $33 million in Q3, lower sequentially and year-on-year on a slower-than-expected ramp of WiFi 7 and continued weakness in the PC end market.

在無線測試中，第三季營收為 3,300 萬美元，環比和同比均有所下降，原因是 WiFi 7 的成長速度慢於預期以及 PC 終端市場的持續疲軟。

Now to robotics.

現在談談機器人技術。

Revenue was approximately $89 million, flattish sequentially and up 3% year-over-year.

營收約 8,900 萬美元，與上一季持平，年增 3%。

In the quarter, UR contributed $73 million and MIR contributed $15 million.

本季度，UR 貢獻了 7,300 萬美元，MIR 貢獻了 1,500 萬美元。

As noted, although the overall market is down, we are experiencing year-over-year growth tied to our SAM expansion and channel strategies.

如前所述，儘管整體市場下滑，但我們正在經歷與 SAM 擴張和通路策略相關的同比增長。

Some other financial information in Q3.

第三季的一些其他財務資訊。

Our equity investment in Technoprobe is reflected below the line in the income statement, where we recognized 10% of TPI's profit one quarter in arrears.

我們對 Technoprobe 的股權投資反映在損益表的線下，其中我們確認了 TPI 一季度拖欠利潤的 10%。

Clarity, as the transaction closed at the end of May, our third quarter results reflect the impact of one month of the TPI investment.

澄清一下，由於交易於 5 月底結束，我們第三季的業績反映了 TPI 投資一個月的影響。

We had three 10% customers in the quarter.

本季我們有 3 個 10% 的客戶。

The tax rate, excluding discrete items for the quarter 13.6% on a GAAP basis and 13.8% on a non-GAAP basis.

本季的稅率（不含離散項目）以 GAAP 計算為 13.6%，以非 GAAP 計算為 13.8%。

Full year rate is expected to be 14% on a GAAP basis, 14.5% on a non-GAAP basis.

以 GAAP 計算，全年利率預計為 14%；以非 GAAP 計算，全年利率預計為 14.5%。

Shifting to some cash metrics.

轉向一些現金指標。

At a company level, our free cash flow was $114 million, primarily driven by earnings and net working capital improvements in the quarter.

在公司層面，我們的自由現金流為 1.14 億美元，主要受到本季獲利和淨營運資本改善的推動。

We repurchased $25 million shares in the quarter and paid $20 million in dividends.

我們在本季回購了 2,500 萬美元的股票，並支付了 2,000 萬美元的股利。

We ended the quarter with $678 million in cash and marketable securities.

本季結束時，我們擁有 6.78 億美元的現金和有價證券。

Now to our outlook for Q4.

現在我們對第四季的展望。

Q4 sales are expected to be between $710 million and $760 million.

第四季銷售額預計在 7.1 億美元至 7.6 億美元之間。

Gross margins are estimated at 59.5% to 60.5%.

毛利率預計為59.5%至60.5%。

Recall in January, we had a plan to improve gross margins back to model in the second half of 2024.

回想一月份，我們計劃在 2024 年下半年將毛利率提高到正常水平。

The first half of 2024 had subscale revenues tied to a seasonally low Q1 and operational resiliency spend.

2024 年上半年的收入規模較小，這與第一季季節性較低和營運彈性支出有關。

In the second half of 2024, we are back to our model gross margins of 59% to 60%.

2024 年下半年，我們的毛利率將回到 59% 至 60% 的模型。

A little more color on gross margin seasonality.

毛利率的季節性有更多的色彩。

In Q1 2025, we anticipate revenue to be roughly 5% to 10% down quarter-over-quarter.

2025 年第一季度，我們預計營收將環比下降約 5% 至 10%。

With this lower volume, our gross margin is expected to be slightly below our target model.

由於銷售量較低，我們的毛利率預計將略低於我們的目標模型。

Back to Q4, OpEx is expected to run at 36.5% to 38.5% of fourth quarter sales.

回到第四季度，營運支出預計將佔第四季銷售額的 36.5% 至 38.5%。

The non-GAAP operating profit rate at the midpoint of our fourth quarter guidance is 23% with non-GAAP EPS expected to be in the range of $0.80 to $0.97 on 164 million diluted shares.

我們第四季指引中位數的非 GAAP 營業利潤率為 23%，1.64 億股稀釋後的非 GAAP 每股盈餘預計在 0.80 美元至 0.97 美元之間。

GAAP EPS is expected to be in the range of $0.73 to $0.91. A few comments on the semiconductor test market.

GAAP 每股盈餘預計在 0.73 美元至 0.91 美元之間。關於半導體測試市場的一些評論。

We are revising up our total semiconductor ATE TAM estimates for 2024.

我們正在上調 2024 年半導體 ATE TAM 總量預測。

We have provided a slide in the appendix of our earnings deck with this information.

我們在收益報告的附錄中提供了一張包含此資訊的幻燈片。

Recall, our SOC TAM range has been $3.6 billion to $4.2 billion with a midpoint of $3.9 billion.

回想一下，我們的 SOC TAM 範圍為 36 億美元至 42 億美元，中間值為 39 億美元。

We now expect the SOC TAM to be at the high end of this range around $4.2 billion.

我們現在預計 SOC TAM 將處於該範圍的高端，約為 42 億美元。

This is comprised of compute, which we now estimate to be $1.8 billion, up $200 million from our prior midpoint estimate and industrial to be around $400 million, up $100 million from our prior estimate.

其中包括計算設備，我們現在估計為 18 億美元，比我們之前的中點估計增加了 2 億美元；工業設備為 4 億美元左右，比我們之前的估計增加了 1 億美元。

We continue to estimate mobile to be around $800 million.

我們繼續估計行動業務的價值約為 8 億美元。

Auto MCU to be around $500 million and services at $700 million.

汽車 MCU 約 5 億美元，服務約 7 億美元。

We are also raising our memory TAM estimate to $1.4 billion, up from an estimated range of $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion.

我們也將記憶體 TAM 預估從 12 億美元至 13 億美元的預估範圍上調至 14 億美元。

Within our 2024 expectations, as Greg noted, we are calibrating our expectations of growth in robotics around the relative growth of the peer group.

正如 Greg 所指出的那樣，在我們 2024 年的預期中，我們正在圍繞同行的相對成長來調整我們對機器人技術成長的預期。

We are targeting growth in our robotics business to be 15% to 20% above the industrial automation peer group, which contemplates macroeconomic factors that are outside of our control.

我們的機器人業務成長目標是比工業自動化同業高出 15% 至 20%，這考慮到了我們無法控制的宏觀經濟因素。

We are confident in the long-term growth of this business and will continue to have a disciplined approach to spending.

我們對這項業務的長期成長充滿信心，並將繼續採取嚴格的支出方式。

Given the weak end market, we now expect robotics growth in 2024 to be between 5% and 10%.

鑑於終端市場疲軟，我們目前預計 2024 年機器人成長將在 5% 至 10% 之間。

With regard to capital allocation, we will continue to target our share buybacks in 2024 to have an amount necessary to offset dilution from equity compensation and our employee share purchase program.

在資本配置方面，我們將繼續以 2024 年股票回購為目標，以獲得必要的金額來抵銷股權薪酬和員工股票購買計畫帶來的稀釋。

Looking ahead to 2025, with an uptick in utilization and an expectation of end market improvement, we will be making investments that will increase our operating expenses.

展望 2025 年，隨著利用率的上升和終端市場改善的預期，我們將進行投資以增加我們的營運費用。

However, we expect to have a plan with operating leverage.

然而，我們預計會有一個具有營運槓桿的計劃。

We expect revenue growth to accelerate from 2024 levels across all businesses.

我們預計所有業務的營收成長將從 2024 年的水準開始加速。

That said, demand for most of our end markets outside of AI related to compute and memory is improving, but remains muted and the timing and magnitude of a broader-based recovery is not known.

也就是說，除了與計算和記憶體相關的人工智慧之外，我們對大多數終端市場的需求正在改善，但仍然低迷，而且更廣泛的復甦的時間和幅度尚不清楚。

Our variable business model is scalable and resilient with outsourced manufacturing and our operating expenses having a variable component.

我們的可變業務模型具有可擴展性和彈性，外包製造和我們的營運費用具有可變成分。

During a cyclical downturn, we shed OpEx enabling greater profitability and free cash flow generation.

在週期性低迷時期，我們削減了營運支出，從而實現了更高的獲利能力和自由現金流的產生。

During an upturn in the market, we expect in 2025, we will see an accelerated OpEx increase tied to our variable OpEx model.

我們預計，在 2025 年市場好轉期間，我們將看到與我們的可變營運支出模型相關的營運支出加速成長。

In 2025, given our expected top line growth, we are planning a low teens increase in year-over-year OpEx, mainly to fund our Semi Test growth initiatives, primarily in engineering and go-to-market.

考慮到我們預期的收入成長，到 2025 年，我們計劃營運支出同比增長兩位數，主要是為了資助我們的半測試增長計劃，主要是在工程和上市方面。

Also, approximately 30% of the growth is due to our variable compensation model.

此外，大約 30% 的成長歸功於我們的可變薪酬模型。

Q1 OpEx is expected to grow 15% to 20% year-over-year.

第一季營運支出預計將年增 15% 至 20%。

Summing up, we delivered strong sales and earnings in the third quarter as memory and compute revenue helped us drive to the high end of the range.

總而言之，我們在第三季實現了強勁的銷售和收益，因為記憶體和運算收入幫助我們達到了區間的高端。

Our robotics team delivered year-over-year growth despite a difficult auto and industrial end market as the business continues to execute its new product development and go-to-market strategy.

儘管汽車和工業終端市場困難重重，但隨著業務繼續執行新產品開發和上市策略，我們的機器人團隊仍實現了同比增長。

Overall, our midterm fundamentals remain strong, and we are investing to accelerate our long-term growth trajectory.

總體而言，我們的中期基本面仍然強勁，我們正在投資以加速我們的長期成長軌跡。

With that, I'll turn the call back to the operator to open the line up for questions.

這樣，我會將電話轉回給接線員，以開啟提問隊列。

Operator?

操作員？

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Mehdi Hosseini of SIG.

SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

Yes, the first one has to do with just the overall system level test, you have highlighted opportunities in compute I think of system-level test as an extension of compute impacting both your Semi Test and system level.

是的，第一個與整體系統級測試有關，您強調了計算方面的機會，我認為系統級測試是影響半測試和系統級的計算的擴展。

So remind me, where do you see the TAM in '24 and your projection for '25?

請提醒我，您在哪裡看到 24 年的 TAM 以及您對 25 年的預測？

And what are the opportunities that Teradyne could benefit from?

泰瑞達可以從哪些機會中受益？

And for context, SLT was mostly opportunities in the smartphone, I'm under impression that the end market diversified, and I want to hear how Teradyne is positioned, and I have a follow-up.

就背景而言，SLT 主要是智慧型手機領域的機會，我的印像是終端市場多元化，我想聽聽泰瑞達的定位，我有後續行動。

Mehdi, so unlike the semiconductor ATE market, there aren't as accurate measures of TAM in the SLT space because there are a lot of sort of fuzzy edges between SLT and burn in, different methodologies.

Mehdi，與半導體 ATE 市場不同，SLT 領域沒有那麼準確的 TAM 測量方法，因為 SLT 和老化、不同方法之間存在著許多模糊邊緣。

So we look more at this from a major customer perspective and a segment perspective.

所以我們更多的是從大客戶的角度和細分市場的角度來看這個問題。

.

。

So you're right.

所以你是對的。

The thing that's happened over the past few years, maybe the last like five years or so is SLT becoming an important part of the test strategy for the processors that go into smartphones.

過去幾年（也許是最近五年左右）發生的事情是，SLT 正在成為智慧型手機處理器測試策略的重要組成部分。

And that has been the primary driver for us, our business.

這一直是我們業務的主要驅動力。

Over in 2024, we have added compute customers to that mix.

2024 年，我們將計算客戶加入該組合。

And we're really going to hit more, like I think that's only going to be a meaningful contributor to SLT revenue once we get to 2025, there's a little bit in 2024, there will be more in 2025.

我們真的會取得更多成果，我認為只有到 2025 年，這才會對 SLT 收入產生有意義的貢獻，2024 年會有一點，2025 年會有更多。

We also while this the mobile downturn has been going on, we have been adding additional an additional customer in the mobile space.

雖然行動市場持續低迷，但我們一直在行動領域增加額外的客戶。

So when the mobile market hopefully recovers to an extent in 2025, we expect that to grow a little bit more robustly because we have an additional customer there.

因此，當行動市場預計在 2025 年恢復到一定程度時，我們預計其成長會更加強勁，因為我們在那裡有了更多客戶。

So I don't have a firm answer to give you, but we certainly believe that we're looking at a significantly stronger 2025 than 2024 in SLT.

因此，我沒有給您確切的答案，但我們當然相信，2025 年的 SLT 會比 2024 年明顯更強。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Sure.

當然。

And just as a follow-up, when I asked your customers, it seems like the overall test time for the next generation of AI Blackwell increases by more than 30% versus the prior generation.

作為後續，當我詢問你們的客戶時，似乎下一代 AI Blackwell 的整體測試時間比上一代增加了 30% 以上。

And I'm just wondering given the fact that you've had limited exposure to accelerate part of the AI market, would the escalating test time open the door for Teradyne to come in and reduce the test time and this is where SLT could potentially become an enabler.

我只是想知道，鑑於您對加速部分人工智慧市場的了解有限，不斷增加的測試時間是否會為泰瑞達打開大門並減少測試時間，而這正是 SLT 可能成為的領域一個推動者。

So it's a visit.

所以這是一次訪問。

The trend that you're talking about higher test times is really firmly tied to the complexity of the device.

您所說的更長測試時間的趨勢確實與設備的複雜性緊密相關。

The Blackwell is a huge die, its test time is quite well optimized to the complexity that's there.

Blackwell 是一個巨大的晶片，其測試時間針對其複雜性進行了很好的優化。

And there are I see SLT as primarily a way to limit the growth.

我認為 SLT 主要是限製成長的一種方式。

If the test time tracked with the transistor complexity increase, it would go up by a lot more than 30%.

如果測試時間隨著電晶體複雜性的增加而增加，則會增加 30% 以上。

SLT is sort of the backstop that's keeping that growth down, and we have significant opportunities in AI accelerators, but I don't see a significant opportunity for us to gain share with in a specific part like Blackwell.

SLT 是一種抑製成長的後盾，我們在人工智慧加速器方面有很大的機會，但我認為我們沒有在 Blackwell 等特定領域獲得份額的重大機會。

Our future is much more strongly tied to the vertically integrated producers.

我們的未來與垂直整合的生產商更加緊密地聯繫在一起。

So as the hyperscalers begin to deploy greater amounts of compute power on their own silicon, that's the thing that's going to be driving our improved results in the compute space.

因此，隨著超大規模企業開始在自己的晶片上部署更大量的運算能力，這將推動我們在運算領域取得更好的結果。

The other thing about that is coming along with that increased complexity in each of the devices is for when you're trying to do AI model training and the number of nodes in the model are increasing and increasing, the amount of networking is actually increasing at a faster pace than the number of nodes.

另一件事是，隨著每個設備的複雜性增加，當你嘗試進行人工智慧模型訓練並且模型中的節點數量不斷增加時，網路量實際上在增加速度比節點數量更快。

So that is like the mix.

這就像混合一樣。

If you look within a single company, they have they'll have AI accelerators and networking devices, the amount of test seconds required for the networking devices is going up at least as fast as the number of test seconds for the core compute devices because they're simply more links.

如果你看一下一家公司，他們將擁有人工智慧加速器和網路設備，網路設備所需的測試秒數的成長速度至少與核心運算設備的測試秒數一樣快，因為它們只是更多的連結。

So I think there's this test time expansion is kind of a broad tailwind for the ATE industry.

因此，我認為測試時間的延長對 ATE 行業來說是一個巨大的推動力。

We're going to be looking at larger TAMs, more testers and I think that the key message is that our primary opportunity is through the growth of the VIPs and networking.

我們將尋找更大的 TAM、更多的測試人員，我認為關鍵訊息是我們的主要機會是透過 VIP 和網路的成長。

Vivek Arya of Bank of America Securities.

美國銀行證券公司的 Vivek Arya。

Thank you for taking my question.

謝謝你回答我的問題。

I'm not sure how the TAM is being taken up several hundred million dollars, but your Q4 and Q1 sales are going to be below Q3 sales.

我不確定 TAM 是如何佔用數億美元的，但第四季和第一季的銷售額將低於第三季的銷售額。

And as we look forward, Greg, do you think that this 20%, 25% sales growth, which is kind of in line with your midterm model CAGR, that's the realistic target for 2025.

格雷格，當我們展望未來時，您認為 20%、25% 的銷售成長（這與您的中期模式 CAGR 一致）是 2025 年的現實目標嗎？

So let me take this in 2 parts.

讓我把這個分成兩個部分。

So in terms of the TAM expansion, there's three factors there's really two factors going on.

因此，就 TAM 擴張而言，有三個因素，實際上有兩個因素正在發生。

One is that as we are measuring ourselves and our competitors, we're seeing significantly stronger business in AI compute and things that are related to that HBM memory.

一是，當我們衡量自己和競爭對手時，我們發現 AI 運算以及與 HBM 記憶體相關的業務顯著增強。

The other factor is that as the year is going on, we are getting better visibility into the size of the TAM in China and the success of the local Chinese tester companies serving that Chinese TAM.

另一個因素是，隨著時間的推移，我們越來越清楚地了解中國 TAM 的規模以及為中國 TAM 提供服務的中國本土測試公司的成功。

So there's demand from companies in China that's being served by companies in China.

因此，中國公司的需求是由中國公司提供的。

And it's not so much that, that is strengthening, but we're getting a clearer picture of how much of that's going on.

與其說是加強，不如說我們正在更清楚地了解其中的情況。

So because of Teradyne's relatively low exposure in China, that isn't as big of a factor around our share of our growth, but it is certainly something that is accelerating the TAM, our estimate of the TAM in 2024.

因此，由於泰瑞達在中國的業務相對較低，這並不是影響我們成長份額的重要因素，但它肯定會加速 TAM（我們對 2024 年 TAM 的估計）的成長。

Now the second part of your question around like our model would suggest growth of 20% to 25% in 2025.

現在，你問題的第二部分就像我們的模型一樣，建議 2025 年成長 20% 到 25%。

We'll be giving you a complete picture of what we believe is like what our estimates are for 2025 specifically in our January call.

我們將在 1 月的電話會議中向您全面介紹我們對 2025 年的預測。

But I think the ingredients are there for us to be able to stay on model towards our 2026 plan.

但我認為我們已經具備了能夠維持 2026 年計畫模式的要素。

And from a follow-up, if I do a five year look back for your automation or your robotics business, the 29% to 24% if my model is right, it shows a 5% CAGR, so what explains that software growth?

從後續來看，如果我對您的自動化或機器人業務進行五年回顧，如果我的模型正確，那麼 29％ 到 24％ 的複合年增長率為 5％，那麼如何解釋軟體成長呢？

How does that long-term trend compare against the industry?

與產業相比，這長期趨勢如何？

And what needs to happen for Teradyne to grow at this 20%, 30% forecast for the next handful of years?

泰瑞達需要怎麼做才能在未來幾年以 20%、30% 的預測成長？

So that's a really good question.

所以這是一個非常好的問題。

And it's something that we've spent a fair amount of time doing some soul-searching about ourselves.

我們花了相當多的時間對自己進行自我反省。

And when we were trying to look at this, we saw a number of different factors.

當我們試圖研究這個問題時，我們看到了許多不同的因素。

One thing that is that has happened is that the if you rewind the tape, you had a sort of a five year look back. 2020 was a dismal year for industrial automation in general, that the semiconductor industry recovered very quickly because it was a critical industry during the COVID pandemic and results were really, really strong there.

已經發生的一件事是，如果你倒帶，你就會回顧五年。總體而言，2020 年對於工業自動化來說是慘淡的一年，但半導體產業恢復得很快，因為它是新冠疫情期間的關鍵產業，而且結果非常非常強勁。

But for industrial automation, including our industrial automation, it was a very, very difficult environment to try to grow sales.

但對於工業自動化，包括我們的工業自動化來說，試圖增加銷售量是一個非常非常困難的環境。

There was a strong recovery from that in 2021.

2021 年出現強勁復甦。

And then after that into 2022, our growth really flattened out, and we had negative growth in 2023.

然後到了 2022 年，我們的成長確實趨於平緩，並在 2023 年出現了負成長。

In the period from 2023 up through now, actually, the second half of 2022 through now, we've been looking at a very soft end market.

從 2023 年到現在，實際上是從 2022 年下半年到現在，我們一直在關註一個非常軟的終端市場。

The industrial PMI has been at or below 50%, indicating contraction for two years, and that is the longest period of time that, that indicator has been that low for the last 40 years.

工業PMI連續兩年處於或低於50%，處於收縮狀態，這是近40年來該指標處於如此低水平的最長時期。

I'm not sure about the 40 years, a very long time.

我不確定這40年，一段很長的時間。

The that coincides with the post-COVID contraction in general and also the period of time when interest rates started going up, making capital tighter for industrial expansion.

這與新冠疫情後的整體收縮相吻合，也是利率開始上升的時期，使得工業擴張的資本更加緊張。

We haven't been sort of sitting around while that's going on.

在這一切發生的過程中，我們並沒有袖手旁觀。

We have been looking at our own performance and our own issues in that business.

我們一直在關注我們自己在該業務中的表現和問題。

And the key thing that we saw in that business was that our distribution was inadequate for the growth objectives that we had and that in order to serve this huge unserved market that we needed to actually broaden our offerings both in hardware and software.

我們在該業務中看到的關鍵問題是，我們的分銷不足以滿足我們的成長目標，為了服務這個龐大的未服務市場，我們需要實際擴大我們在硬體和軟體方面的產品範圍。

And so that's what we've been doing.

這就是我們一直在做的事情。

While this while we've had these terrible end market conditions, we've added high payload robots to our UR line.

雖然我們面臨這些糟糕的終端市場狀況，但我們還是在 UR 系列中加入了高負載機器人。

We have we're out to introduce a product for that will roughly double our served market.

我們即將推出一種產品，將使我們服務的市場增加一倍。

And we've established an effective OEM solutions channel for UR, that's now accounting for a material part of their sales and growing 50% year-over-year in a weak market.

我們為 UR 建立了有效的 OEM 解決方案管道，該管道目前佔其銷售額的重要部分，並且在疲軟的市場中同比增長 50%。

So we definitely need better end market conditions than we see right now for us to be able to maintain 20% to 30% growth.

因此，我們肯定需要比現在更好的終端市場條件，才能維持 20% 至 30% 的成長。

What Sanjay said, I think is right, that we think we can outgrow the sort of traditional suppliers in robotics and industrial automation by 15 to 20 percentage points per year.

我認為 Sanjay 所說的是對的，我們認為我們可以每年以 15 到 20 個百分點的速度超越機器人和工業自動化領域的傳統供應商。

And that market typically grows a little bit faster than GDP, sort of a 5% growth rate.

這個市場的成長速度通常比 GDP 快一點，大約是 5% 的成長率。

So that would put us in the 20% to 25% growth just with a normal market.

因此，在正常的市場情況下，我們的成長率將達到 20% 到 25%。

So I think we're we have pretty strong conviction that we've done the right things to set ourselves up for growth, but we're consistently looking at it and adjust it.

所以我認為我們非常堅信我們已經做了正確的事情來為自己的成長做好準備，但我們一直在關注它並進行調整。

Tim Arcuri of UBS.

瑞銀集團的提姆·阿庫裡。

Thanks a lot on, Sanjay, you guided OpEx next year up low teens, and you talked about how that's going to be focused in Semi Test, but you also said you want to show leverage next year.

非常感謝，Sanjay，您指導明年的營運支出達到低十幾歲，並且您談到瞭如何將其重點放在半測試中，但您也表示您希望明年展示槓桿作用。

So implicit in that statement, you think you're going to grow revenue something higher than that.

該聲明隱含地表明，您認為您的收入成長將高於此。

The Street right now has it up low 20s.

目前華爾街的股價已經上漲了 20 多美元。

So is that a reasonable number since you're growing OpEx up low teens.

既然營運支出成長到十幾歲，那麼這個數字是否合理？

Is the Street projection of up low 20s.

是街道預測的低 20 多歲。

Is that a reasonable number?

這是一個合理的數字嗎？

Or do you think you can grow even faster than that?

或者你認為你可以比這更快成長嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Tim, I think it says a couple of things.

提姆，我認為這說明了一些事情。

One is we do have conviction in as I noted in my prepared remarks, we believe that across the business, we're going to see an improvement.

一是我們確實有信心，正如我在準備好的發言中指出的那樣，我們相信整個業務都會有所改善。

However, we are in a downturn or a muted set of demand for mobility, auto and industrial.

然而，我們正處於低迷時期，或對交通、汽車和工業的需求低迷。

And when that exactly turns will be an interesting dynamic that will fluctuate where we end up in 2025.

當這種情況真正發生轉變時，將會出現一個有趣的動態，它將影響我們在 2025 年的最終結果。

We will provide a view of 2025 and our January call.

我們將提供 2025 年的展望和 1 月份的電話會議。

But the other implicit point that we wanted to make was, hey, this is a dynamic environment.

但我們想要表達的另一個隱含的觀點是，嘿，這是一個動態的環境。

We're going through our strategic planning process now that culminates with a review with our Board.

我們現在正在經歷我們的策略規劃流程，最終將與董事會進行審查。

And then we provide an update to the earnings model in January as we always do.

然後我們會像往常一樣在一月份提供獲利模型的更新。

And we're still going through that process.

我們仍在經歷這個過程。

But one of the principles that we look at is how do we have operating leverage.

但我們關注的原則之一是我們如何擁有營運槓桿。

We wanted to put that out there.

我們想把它放在那裡。

Now tactically, as we do see that the market's changing pretty significantly, if you go back to 2008, you see mobility being very, very strong.

現在從戰術上講，我們確實看到市場正在發生相當大的變化，如果你回到 2008 年，你會發現流動性非常非常強。

And now obviously, with segment chip to compute, we believe we're as we've noted several years ago, we pivoted to VIP or hyperscaler strategy that is, we feel as being very successful in the short term.

現在顯然，隨著細分晶片的計算，我們相信，正如我們幾年前所指出的那樣，我們轉向了 VIP 或超大規模戰略，也就是說，我們感覺在短期內非常成功。

And we're making the right engineering and go-to-market decisions, we believe.

我們相信，我們正在做出正確的工程和上市決策。

So tactically, while we have this principle of driving operating leverage, tactically, we are looking at these investments very carefully.

因此，從戰術上講，雖然我們有推動營運槓桿的原則，但從戰術上講，我們正在非常仔細地檢視這些投資。

But this is where we expect to be.

但這正是我們所期望的。

So we wanted to make sure we set the right expectation from our investment profile as well as came out with a principle of operating leverage.

因此，我們希望確保從投資概況中設定正確的預期，並制定營運槓桿原則。

If I can just add sort of one comment that as we were looking at our 2026 earnings model and trying to make sure that we were providing useful like as much useful information as we can know without having complete plans for 2025, the thing that we were most concerned was that there was a chance that people would misunderstand our trajectory in OpEx going into 2025.

如果我可以添加一點評論，當我們審視 2026 年的盈利模型並試圖確保我們在沒有製定 2025 年完整計劃的情況下提供盡可能多的有用信息時，我們所做的就是最擔心的是，人們可能會誤解我們進入2025 年的營運支出軌跡。

We were less concerned about the sort of the impressions that existed, sort of the implication of our 2026 earnings model on 2025, we had less concerns about that in the area of revenue growth.

我們不太關心現有的印象，2026 年獲利模型對 2025 年的影響，我們不太擔心營收成長領域的問題。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

And I mean, obviously, as you guys know, I don't say good things about the industrial automation business often.

我的意思是，顯然，正如你們所知，我不經常說工業自動化業務的好話。

So I guess maybe I'll ask a question that could be kind of a green shoot question.

所以我想也許我會問一個可能是新手問題的問題。

And if you look at this white paper, I mean, Amazon obviously has Kiva for automated guided robots.

如果你看一下這份白皮書，我的意思是，亞馬遜顯然擁有用於自動引導機器人的 Kiva。

But they do have this new white paper where it looks like they're looking to fill a niche with cobots for warehouse and full fulfillment, things like that.

但他們確實有這份新的白皮書，看起來他們正在尋求用協作機器人來填補一個利基市場，用於倉庫和全面履行之類的事情。

So is that a green shoot that maybe, I mean, AI obviously hasn't done has not grown much.

所以，我的意思是，人工智慧顯然還沒有做到這一點，但它的萌芽並沒有長出太多。

But is that a green shoot that maybe should really start to catalyze that business?

但這是否是一個真正應該開始促進該業務的萌芽？

So yes, we don't comment on sort of specific customer engagements, the thing that I've seen the same white paper that you've seen.

所以，是的，我們不會評論某種特定的客戶參與，我看到的與您看到的相同的白皮書。

And it's really exciting technology.

這確實是令人興奮的技術。

The thing that's exciting to me is that they're applying AI to allow for cobots to be able to react to deal with like the hundreds of thousands of SKUs that they need to deal with on a day-to-day basis.

讓我興奮的是，他們正在應用人工智慧，讓協作機器人做出反應，處理他們每天需要處理的數十萬個 SKU。

We have other customers in the logistics space that are using AI and cobots in a very similar way, like cube storage systems for online grocery picking, those kinds of applications.

我們在物流領域還有其他客戶以非常相似的方式使用人工智慧和協作機器人，例如用於線上雜貨揀貨的立方體儲存系統等類型的應用程式。

So the green shoot in our mind is how AI can be used to allow cobots to be applied to a much broader range of product, problems that it's been able to serve before.

因此，我們腦海中的萌芽是如何利用人工智慧讓協作機器人應用於更廣泛的產品，解決它以前能夠解決的問題。

And I certainly believe that online retailing is one of the richest areas for that to possibly grow.

我當然相信線上零售業是最有可能成長的領域之一。

Samik Chatterjee of JPMorgan.

摩根大通的薩米克‧查特吉 (Samik Chatterjee)。

Hi, thanks for taking the question.

您好，感謝您提出問題。

So for the first one, I'm just trying to go back to your comments on the prepared remarks about growth being significantly higher in 2025, compared to 2024 and just trying to think about it in terms of the TAM by segments that you outlined.

因此，對於第一個問題，我只是想回顧一下您對準備好的評論的評論，即與2024 年相比，2025 年的增長將顯著提高，並試圖按照您概述的細分市場來考慮TAM 。

And I remember previously, you've outlined that the complete TAM probably is really not where you see a lot of upside into 2025, but more in the cyclical parts of the TAM that you outlined like Mobility and others.

我記得之前，您已經概述過，完整的TAM 可能實際上並不是您在2025 年看到很多上升空間的地方，而是更多地出現在您概述的TAM 的周期性部分，如移動性和其他方面。

I mean more curious if that's still your view as you look forward to 2025, because you just outlined today as well that the memory or the HP time might be sort of flattening out as well.

我的意思是，更好奇的是，當您展望 2025 年時，這是否仍然是您的觀點，因為您今天也概述了內存或 HP 時間也可能會趨於平緩。

So is it still very much when we start to think about next year significantly actual growth?

那麼，當我們開始考慮明年顯著的實際成長時，它仍然很大嗎？

Is it really driven by the cyclical parts of the TAM?

它真的是由 TAM 的周期性部分驅動的嗎？

Or is your view changing on compute or membrane aggregate in relation to that?

或者您對計算或膜聚合的看法是否與此相關？

And I have a quick follow-up.

我有一個快速跟進。

Yes.

是的。

So I'll give my usual we'll tell you in more detail what our view of '25 is in January.

所以我會像往常一樣，我們會在一月份更詳細地告訴你我們對 25 的看法。

But since we talked a little bit about this last quarter, what I'll do is I'll sort of give you an update sort of what we've seen to modify that view.

但既然我們在上個季度對此進行了一些討論，我要做的就是向您提供我們所看到的修改該視圖的更新內容。

So last quarter, we like what I was saying last quarter is like man, compute is hot.

所以上個季度，我們就像我上個季度所說的那樣，計算很熱門。

I don't I can't imagine it's going to get much hotter.

我不認為我無法想像它會變得更熱。

You know what, it's probably going to get a bit hotter.

你知道嗎，天氣可能會變得更熱。

It's probably going to grow a bit from where it is now.

它可能會比現在的情況有所增長。

We certainly are expecting a recovery from the lower levels that we see in 2024 in the automotive and industrial space.

我們當然預計汽車和工業領域將從 2024 年的較低水平中復甦。

There's a lot of end market demand that is going to come.

將會出現大量的終端市場需求。

The crossover from internal combustion to EV, even though it's delayed, it's going on in every single model year of car is increasing the semiconductor content.

從內燃機到電動車的跨界，儘管有所延遲，但在汽車的每個車型年中都會發生，這正在增加半導體含量。

So we see that there are long-term growth drivers that are going to help us in auto and industrial.

因此，我們看到長期成長動力將有助於我們在汽車和工業領域的發展。

In memory, we do think that HBM will moderate, but honestly, the other parts of the memory market are still quite weak.

在內存方面，我們確實認為 HBM 將會放緩，但老實說，內存市場的其他部分仍然相當疲軟。

The DRAM market is like was it 80% this year of the TAM.

DRAM 市場今年佔 TAM 的 80%。

And it's usually much more balanced than that.

而且通常比這要平衡得多。

So we think that there's definitely room for improved strength in the flash part of the memory market.

因此我們認為快閃記憶體市場的實力肯定還有提升的空間。

So I think I guess the premise of your question is, is it like AI like being the sole growth driver next year, I think that the real story is that the rest of the market kind of improves incrementally underneath a very strong AI market.

所以我想我想你問題的前提是，它是否會像人工智慧一樣成為明年唯一的成長動力，我認為真正的情況是市場的其他部分在非常強大的人工智慧市場下逐漸改善。

Got it.

知道了。

Good.

好的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And for my second one, just on Sanjay, you mentioned the into 1Q.

對於我的第二個，就在 Sanjay 上，你提到了進入 1Q。

If I sort of look at your business as AI versus sort of the more cyclical part, are the AI pieces also going to go through a seasonality typical to the rest of the business?

如果我將你的業務視為人工智慧而不是更具週期性的部分，那麼人工智慧部分是否也會經歷其他業務的典型季節性？

Or are you seeing those sort of stand out to see that and it's more driven by the cyclical aspects that you sort of take that step down into 1Q?

或者你是否看到這些很突出，並且它更多地受到週期性方面的驅動，你在第一季採取了這一步驟？

Yes.

是的。

I think if you look at our history, what you'll see is the seasonality come down in Q1.

我認為如果你看看我們的歷史，你會看到第一季的季節性下降。

And we're seeing that in robotics specifically.

我們特別在機器人技術中看到了這一點。

Historically, we've seen strong Q4 and then come down in Q1.

從歷史上看，我們看到第四季度表現強勁，然後在第一季下降。

And then from a test perspective, the AI strength right now, it will be interesting to see because one thing I want to tie back to is that our lead times have come down significantly from where they were several years ago.

然後從測試的角度來看，現在的人工智慧實力將會很有趣，因為我想聯繫的一件事是我們的交貨時間比幾年前顯著下降。

And one of the drivers of our strength in Q3 was really tied to customers pulling in future forecast to meet current wafer routes and test requirements.

我們第三季實力的驅動因素之一實際上與客戶拉動未來預測以滿足當前的晶圓路線和測試要求有關。

.

。

And we're seeing that more and more, and we're positioned well to service that.

我們越來越多地看到這種情況，並且我們已經做好了提供服務的準備。

There have been some unforecasted demand.

出現了一些不可預見的需求。

So I would say that the visibility is starting to get a little bit lower looking out into kind of Q1 from a tactical execution perspective.

所以我想說，從戰術執行的角度來看，第一季的能見度開始變得有點低。

Now we are positioned well that if customers come in and we can service it.

現在我們的定位很好，如果客戶進來，我們可以提供服務。

But even in test, we are seeing historically a little bit of seasonality, but a large part is driven by robotics and a little bit in test.

但即使在測試中，我們在歷史上也看到了一點季節性，但很大一部分是由機器人技術驅動的，還有一點是在測試中。

Brian Chin of Stifel.

Stifel 的布萊恩·欽 (Brian Chin)。

Thanks for letting us ask a few questions, maybe just first question.

感謝您讓我們問幾個問題，也許只是第一個問題。

Can you discuss why the industrial test TAM was revised higher for this year?

您能談談為什麼今年工業測試TAM上調了嗎？

Is there a connection to China there?

那裡和中國有聯繫嗎？

Or would you explain that in another way?

或者你能用另一種方​​式解釋一下嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So you hit the nail on the head that the this isn't a case of the industrial TAM strengthening from quarter-to-quarter.

因此，您一語中的，這不是工業 TAM 逐季走強的情況。

It's a case of us getting better visibility into the size of the TAM that existed in China that's being served by indigenous suppliers.

這是我們更了解由本土供應商提供服務的中國 TAM 規模的一個案例。

Okay.

好的。

That's very clear and helpful.

這非常清楚且有幫助。

And Greg, maybe can you also you referenced this on prior calls, and I think this as well, but can you help to quantify roughly what percent of the mobile installed tester base?

Greg，也許您在之前的電話會議中也提到過這一點，我也認為這一點，但是您能否幫助量化一下行動安裝的測試人員基數的大致百分比？

I assume that OSAT principally has been reduced, rationalized or repurposed for other chips and markets such as AI accelerator GPUs and ASICs.

我認為 OSAT 主要已被減少、合理化或重新用於其他晶片和市場，例如 AI 加速器 GPU 和 ASIC。

Yes, right now, like as of today, based on the upgrade shipments that we've done over 100 testers have been repurposed, and by the end of the year, we expect that over 200 testers will have been repurposed into other markets.

是的，現在，就像今天一樣，根據我們已經完成的升級出貨量，超過 100 台測試儀已被重新利用，到今年年底，我們預計超過 200 台測試儀將被重新利用到其他市場。

Most of that isn't to compute, but not all of it.

其中大部分不需要計算，但不是全部。

And the other thing that we look at is to see directionally what's happening with utilization.

我們關注的另一件事是定向了解利用率的變化。

We don't trust the absolute numbers, but since we keep our measurement methodology consistent, you can get a better idea of whether this whether capacity is getting tighter or looser and we've seen a meaningful uptick in utilization as these testers have been converted and put to use, so we definitely believe that there's less idle capacity now than there was a quarter ago, and they'll be even less when we get the end of the year.

我們不相信絕對數字，但由於我們保持測量方法一致，因此您可以更好地了解容量是否變得更緊張或更寬鬆，並且隨著這些測試儀的轉換，我們已經看到利用率顯著上升並投入使用，所以我們絕對相信現在的閒置產能比一個季度前要少，到年底時閒置產能會更少。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

You understand kind of the supply side of that and the demand is what you're kind of floating at the moment for next year.

您了解供應方面的情況，而需求則是您目前為明年浮動的情況。

Maybe one last quick question.

也許還有最後一個快速問題。

And I understand maybe the reluctance to give a number for 2025 of that VIP compute TAM.

我理解也許不願意給出 2025 年 VIP 計算 TAM 的數字。

But you revised it higher again for this year.

但今年你又把它調高了。

Maybe it will ultimately push higher in terms of what your 2026 view has been.

也許它最終會推高你對 2026 年的看法。

But maybe can you at least talk about the key considerations that maybe drive the size of that opportunity next year?

但也許您至少可以談談可能推動明年機會規模的關鍵考慮因素嗎？

And are constraints for things like cobot capacity or HBM supply one of those considerations?

協作機器人產能或 HBM 供應等限制是這些考慮因素之一嗎？

Okay.

好的。

So first, in terms of the VIPs, what we've said before is that we by 2026, we believe that the TAM will be about for VIP compute that we believe that TAM will be about $500 million.

首先，就 VIP 而言，我們之前說過，到 2026 年，我們相信 TAM 將用於 VIP 計算，我們相信 TAM 將約為 5 億美元。

This year, we believe that TAM is going to be about $300 million.

今年，我們認為 TAM 將達到 3 億美元左右。

And frankly, that was a positive surprise in terms of the market size for 2024.

坦白說，就 2024 年的市場規模而言，這是一個積極的驚喜。

Because of that, we are currently taking a hard look at whether that $500 million number for 2026 is right, and we'll give you an update in January about whether we think that that's that needs to be revised upward.

因此，我們目前正在認真研究 2026 年 5 億美元的數字是否正確，我們將在 1 月份向您提供最新情況，說明我們是否認為這個數字需要向上修正。

I certainly feel like there's upward pressure on it.

我當然感覺到它有向上的壓力。

The other thing that we've said about the VIP TAM is that because it's so few producers and so few part types, the TAM is really lumpy.

關於 VIP TAM，我們所說的另一件事是，由於生產商太少，零件類型也太少，所以 TAM 確實很不穩定。

So if you strike a winner, you get a big amount of orders in one period of time.

所以如果你贏了，你就會在一段時間內獲得大量訂單。

And then that capacity gets in place and it's used.

然後該能力就位並被使用。

So that market has not sort of reached the level of maturity and breadth where you can draw a straight line to say it's this and this year, it's this two years later.

因此，這個市場還沒有達到成熟度和廣度的水平，你可以畫一條直線說是今年，是兩年後。

Therefore, it's going to be halfway in between in the middle year.

因此，它會在年中的中間。

But the trend is definitely strengthening.

但這種趨勢肯定正在加強。

Now in terms of the constraints, the things that we are seeing when we talk to VIP customers is that they are constrained in terms of the amount of HBM memory, they can get, they're constrained in the amount of advanced packaging in order to be able to assemble these kinds of parts.

現在就限製而言，當我們與 VIP 客戶交談時，我們看到的是，他們在可以獲得的 HBM 記憶體數量方面受到限制，在高級封裝數量方面受到限制，以便能夠組裝這些類型的零件。

Those are probably the two most important constraints.

這些可能是兩個最重要的限制。

The other thing that I think is an x factor in this space is the part has to work, these are huge dye, reticle constrained dye surprises and they are designing a fair amount of redundancy into them to try to make sure that they get adequate yields.

我認為這個領域的一個未知因素是零件必須工作，這些是巨大的染料，掩模版受限的染料驚喜，他們正在設計相當數量的冗餘，以確保它們獲得足夠的產量。

But this is it's not a slam dunk that these parts are going to work the first time around.

但這並不是說這些部件第一次就能運作。

So the demand for these testers can shift around in time.

因此，對這些測試人員的需求可能會隨著時間的推移而改變。

So it's a kind of a challenging space to predict.

因此，這是一個具有挑戰性的預測領域。

But it's definitely the trend is moving faster than we thought it would.

但毫無疑問，這種趨勢的發展速度比我們想像的還要快。

Yes, that's super helpful color.

是的，這是非常有用的顏色。

C.J. Muse of Cantor Fitzgerald.

坎托·菲茨杰拉德的 C.J. 繆斯。

Yes, good morning.

是的，早安。

Thank you for taking the question.

感謝您提出問題。

I guess first question, I realize you want to save the funder for your Analyst Day in March.

我想第一個問題是，我意識到您想為三月的分析師日保留資助者。

But everything that I'm hearing in this call is telling me that 2025 is a transition year.

但我在這次電話會議中聽到的一切都在告訴我，2025 年是個過渡年。

Your OpEx in Q1 is at new highs, while your revenues are 37% below the prior peak.

您第一季的營運支出創下新高，而您的收入比之前的峰值低了 37%。

So can you give us a little bit of help here to understand that there's actually real leverage in the model in '25.

那麼您能否給我們一點幫助，讓我們了解 25 年的模型實際上具有真正的槓桿作用。

Yes.

是的。

C.J. So when we take our as Greg noted, look, we're going through our strategic planning process.

C.J. 因此，當我們採取格雷格指出的那樣時，看，我們正在經歷我們的策略規劃流程。

And but what we're seeing is early indicators are that we are talking to customers and hearing about their plans.

但我們看到的是，早期跡象表明我們正在與客戶交談並聽取他們的計劃。

We do we have gone through our early market kind of size assessments.

我們確實已經完成了早期的市場規模評估。

And as Greg noted, look, we are seeing incremental or we are planning incremental growth in mobility, auto, industrial.

正如格雷格指出的那樣，你看，我們正在看到或正在計劃移動、汽車、工業領域的增量成長。

And from a percentage-wise, that's coming off of a low base, so that would be higher, and compute is doing really well.

從百分比來看，這個數字是從較低的基數開始的，所以這個數字會更高，而且計算的表現非常好。

So we feel comfortable that at this point, with all the facts we have, we did note that we do expect to see operating leverage while we do grow low teens in the way of OpEx and a lot changes in 90 days.

因此，我們感到放心的是，在這一點上，根據我們掌握的所有事實，我們確實注意到，我們確實希望看到營運槓桿，同時我們的營運支出確實會增長到十幾歲以下，並且在90天內會發生很多變化。

And we've got to complete our planning process, and we'll provide an update.

我們必須完成我們的規劃過程，我們將提供更新。

But we feel comfortable that at this point, we expect to see the operating leverage in our business in '25.

但我們感到放心的是，在這一點上，我們預計將在 25 年看到我們業務的營運槓桿。

Yes.

是的。

So if I can just add a little bit of add on to that.

所以如果我可以加一點點的話。

When we hit our prior peak like the upturn that was serving was it played precisely into Teradyne's strength.

當我們達到先前的峰值（如正在服務的好轉）時，它恰恰發揮了泰瑞達的優勢。

Like we are great in mobile, and it was a huge boom in mobile demand.

就像我們在行動領域很出色一樣，而且行動需求也出現了巨大的繁榮。

And so we were operating at peak efficiency.

因此我們的營運效率最高。

We did not need to layer in significant OpEx in order to serve that level of revenue, coming out of like and it's pretty clear from our earnings model that we believe that we are set up for relatively robust TAM growth over the next couple of years.

我們不需要大量的營運支出來滿足這樣的收入水平，從我們的獲利模型中可以清楚地看出，我們相信我們已經為未來幾年相對強勁的 TAM 成長做好了準備。

The difference is that, that TAM growth doesn't naturally play to where Teradyne's historic strength was.

不同之處在於，TAM 的成長並不能自然地發揮泰瑞達的歷史優勢。

And so we needed to pivot, and we needed to invest in order to make sure that we were able to reap the benefit of the change in the market.

因此，我們需要轉型，需要投資，以確保我們能夠從市場變化中獲益。

And so we made significant investments to try and align to the HBM market, and we are making significant progress in terms of our exposure and our success in the performance stacked die test.

因此，我們進行了大量投資來嘗試適應 HBM 市場，並且我們在性能堆疊晶片測試方面的曝光度和成功方面正在取得重大進展。

We made significant investments in engineering and sales and marketing in order to align to VIP, and our share in compute VIPs is 50% this year versus like much, much lower share in traditional compute.

為了與 VIP 保持一致，我們在工程、銷售和行銷方面進行了大量投資，今年我們在計算 VIP 中的份額為 50%，而在傳統計算中的份額要低得多。

So like the thing that you need to understand is this is a conscious decision on our part that we weren't able to control the changes in the market but we are able to react to it.

因此，您需要了解的是，這是我們有意識的決定，我們無法控制市場的變化，但我們能夠對其做出反應。

And to be able to increase our investments moderately while still maintaining very, very good operating margins is the thing that we need to do to try and make sure that we maintain a leadership position in this industry.

能夠適度增加投資，同時仍然保持非常非常好的營業利潤率，是我們需要做的事情，以確保我們在這個行業中保持領先地位。

That's very helpful.

這非常有幫助。

As my follow-up, a near-term question on robotics, it looks like you're guiding that business to grow 50% sequentially in December.

作為我的後續問題，一個關於機器人技術的近期問題，看起來您正在指導該業務在 12 月連續成長 50%。

Can you kind of walk through the drivers there and how to think of what the business will look like after that?

您能否介紹一下那裡的驅動因素以及如何思考之後的業務會是什麼樣子？

I believe that's driven primarily by mere product cycle, but would love to hear more color there.

我相信這主要是由產品週期驅動的，但我很想聽到更多的顏色。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yes.

是的。

So the Robotics business has historically had very, very large Q4.

因此，機器人業務歷史上第四季的規模非常非常大。

There's a lot of seasonality in that business, and this year is no exception, that we expect sort of the normal seasonality pattern.

該業務有很多季節性，今年也不例外，我們預計會出現正常的季節性模式。

We also expect that the growth that we're seeing in the OEM channel and with heavy payload is going to continue to contribute.

我們也預期 OEM 通路和大負載的成長將繼續做出貢獻。

I also note, like it's a lesser factor, but now there's a more meaningful amount of service revenue that's coming into those businesses.

我還注意到，雖然這是一個較小的因素，但現在這些業務中出現了更有意義的服務收入。

So the like the near story is much more of a 2025 story than a 2024 story.

因此，近期的故事更像是 2025 年的故事，而不是 2024 年的故事。

We need to get our new pallet jack into the hands of customers.

我們需要將新的托盤搬運車交給客戶。

That is going to happen at the end of this quarter, but it's not going to be a material contributor to Q4 growth.

這將在本季末發生，但不會對第四季的成長產生實質貢獻。

So it's really more a view of the pipeline that we have, like our lead pipeline for Q4, how strong we expect that business to be from what we have going now than any contribution from like a mere new product.

因此，這實際上更多是對我們擁有的管道的看法，就像我們第四季度的主要管道一樣，我們期望該業務從我們現在所做的事情中獲得多大的力量，而不是僅僅來自新產品的任何貢獻。

Toshiya Hari of Goldman Sachs.

高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

I had two questions as well.

我也有兩個問題。

First on the mobile SoC test TAM.

首先在移動SoC上測試TAM。

I know you're not giving guidance for '25.

我知道你不會為 '25 提供指導。

But Greg, I'm curious how you're thinking about the opportunity set medium to long term.

但是格雷格，我很好奇你如何看待中長期的機會。

I think the market peaked around $2 billion a couple of years ago, several years ago, you are at $800 million today, how do you think about sort of the through cycle?

我認為市場幾年前達到了 20 億美元左右的頂峰，幾年前，今天達到了 8 億美元，您如何看待整個週期？

I know there is no steady state.

我知道沒有穩定狀態。

But how do you think about sort of the through cycle opportunity for mobile?

但您如何看待行動領域的貫穿週期機會？

You talked about utilization rates coming up per year market intel, but medium to long term, are you thinking $1.2 billion, $1.3 billion for mobile test and some of the reasons behind that, that would be super helpful?

您談到了每年市場英特爾的利用率，但從中長期來看，您是否認為 12 億美元、13 億美元用於行動測試以及背後的一些原因，這會非常有幫助？

Yes.

是的。

So I think once we get to a steady state in terms of like having shoot up the excess capacity, and I think that happens in 2025.

因此，我認為一旦我們達到穩定狀態，例如增加過剩產能，我認為這會在 2025 年發生。

I think the kind of like I would expect that the floor in mobile is going to be closer to $1 billion than the $800 million that it is now, up from that is really going to depend on whether AI-enabled smartphones are a thing or not, and whether AI-enabled smartphones deliver compelling customer value because that's a two for in terms of the market. if a phone comes out that has that like has a much more complex processor, that's going to require more test time, which means that you need more testers to do it.

我認為，我預計行動領域的市場規模將比現在的 8 億美元更接近 10 億美元，而這個數字實際上取決於支援人工智慧的智慧型手機是否成為現實，以及支援人工智慧的智慧型手機是否能夠提供引人注目的客戶價值，因為就市場而言，這是兩個問題。如果一款手機問世，配備了更複雜的處理器，那麼將需要更多的測試時間，這意味著您需要更多的測試人員來完成這項工作。

And if it offers features that customers want badly enough, then that drives the refresh cycle down.

如果它提供了客戶非常想要的功能，那麼就會縮短更新周期。

And right now, like the average age of smartphones is older now than it's ever been that people have been holding on to their phones much longer because there really hasn't been that compelling new feature that drives people to upgrade.

現在，就像智慧型手機的平均年齡比以往任何時候都要老一樣，人們持有手機的時間也更長，因為確實沒有那麼引人注目的新功能來促使人們升級。

So I really think that upside to like a $1 billion in mobile is going to depend on whether the refresh rate in phones goes up and phone unit volume goes up.

因此，我確實認為 10 億美元的手機市場的上漲空間將取決於手機的刷新率是否提高以及手機銷售是否提高。

Got it.

知道了。

And then as my follow-up, just a question on how you're thinking about the overall business portfolio.

然後，作為我的後續行動，我想問一個關於您如何看待整體業務組合的問題。

It's been, I think, something like eight years since you guys acquired UR and I know that predate becoming CEO of the company.

我想，自從你們收購 UR 以來已經有大約八年了，我知道那是在成為公司執行長之前。

But since then, I think at the time, I think the growth expectation around Semi Test was lower perhaps than how you're thinking about the business today?

但從那時起，我認為當時圍繞 Semi Test 的成長預期可能會低於您今天對業務的看法？

And I think the market sort of perceived the acquisition as a diversification play.

我認為市場認為這次收購是一種多元化經營。

When you think about the opportunity set today, I think you've got a lot going on in Semi Test and you touched on quite of those part a few of those things, whether it be HBM or the VIP opportunity set.

當您考慮今天的機會集時，我認為您在半測試中發生了很多事情，並且您觸及了其中的大部分內容，無論是 HBM 還是 VIP 機會集。

I guess to ask the question of bluntly, do you feel like you're still the right owner of the Robotics business?

我想坦白問一個問題，你覺得你仍然是機器人業務的正確所有者嗎？

Do you feel like you're getting fair value for running this business?

您覺得經營這項業務獲得了公平的價值嗎？

And do you guys ever internally debate separating the two businesses?

你們內部是否曾經爭論過要將這兩個業務分開？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yes.

是的。

No, that is a remarkably blunt question, but it's fair.

不，這是一個非常直率的問題，但這是公平的。

So and you're right in terms of the initial motivation that the way the world looked to us in 2015 when we bought UR was that we were coming out of like a decade of shrinking TAMs in the semiconductor test market.

因此，您的最初動機是正確的，即 2015 年我們購買 UR 時，世界對我們的看法是，我們正在擺脫半導體測試市場 TAM 十年的萎縮。

And over that same decade, Paradigm also doubled our share in the semiconductor test market.

在同一十年中，Paradigm 在半導體測試市場的份額也增加了一倍。

So look, in that environment, we managed to become more profitable.

所以看，在那種環境下，我們成功地獲得了更多的利潤。

We've managed to essentially double our share position, but we didn't see that as a great long-term growth strategy.

我們已經成功地將我們的股票地位基本上增加了一倍，但我們並不認為這是一個偉大的長期成長策略。

Like you can end up owning up a market that goes away.

就像你最終可能會擁有一個消失的市場一樣。

That's not particularly satisfying.

這並不是特別令人滿意。

So we were definitely on the hunt for a way to ensure the long-term growth of the enterprise.

因此，我們肯定在尋找一種確保企業長期成長的方法。

That was our original motivation.

這就是我們最初的動機。

The thing that we have discovered since we bought these robotics companies is that Paradigm essentially presents a unique value proposition in the advanced robotics space, that if you look at the people that can compete with us in the industrial automation world, the folks that are coming from industrial robots and industrial automation, the big players, they are typically not as comfortable in terms of delivering very high-tech products with very, very high tech very, very high reliability requirements.

自從我們收購這些機器人公司以來，我們發現，Paradigm 本質上在先進機器人領域提出了獨特的價值主張，如果你看看那些可以在工業自動化領域與我們競爭的人，那些即將到來的人對於工業機器人和工業自動化領域的大公司來說，他們通常不太願意提供具有非常非常高的技術、非常、非常高的可靠性要求的高科技產品。

What we do with testers is honestly kind of astonishing.

老實說，我們對測試人員所做的事情令人驚訝。

The level of reliability and the level of complexity is really kind of off the charts.

可靠性水準和複雜程度確實是超乎想像的。

And being able to bring that mindset and that skill set to our robotics businesses and also that reputation to our robotics businesses allows them to really compete well against the traditional IA folks that are pivoting into the advanced robotics space.

能夠將這種思維方式和技能帶入我們的機器人業務，並將這種聲譽帶入我們的機器人業務，使他們能夠真正與正在轉向先進機器人領域的傳統 IA 人員進行良好的競爭。

And it gives us a killer advantage against the pure play advanced robotics folks because they're typically undersized, there under scale, their spending beyond their spending to a loss.

它為我們提供了對抗純粹的先進機器人技術人員的殺手級優勢，因為他們通常規模較小，規模不足，他們的支出超出了支出，導致虧損。

They don't have international distribution or a spares logistics network.

他們沒有國際分銷或備件物流網絡。

And so we kind of think that we are the right player to bring advanced robotics to an industrial scale.

因此，我們認為我們是將先進機器人技術推向工業規模的合適參與者。

So the base that we have is, is there some point in the future where we where we may unlock shareholder value by having these two businesses be separate.

因此，我們的基礎是，在未來的某個時刻，我們是否可以透過將這兩項業務分開來釋放股東價值。

Maybe.

或許。

But right now, we think that like the Teradyne is like attaching Teradyne to the advanced robotics name is actually a significant differentiator and will allow us to lead in that space.

但現在，我們認為，就像泰瑞達一樣，將泰瑞達附加到先進的機器人名稱上實際上是一個顯著的差異化因素，將使我們能夠在該領域處於領先地位。

Krish Sankar of TD Cowen.

TD Cowen 的 Krish Sankar。

Yes, thanks for taking my question.

是的，感謝您提出我的問題。

Greg, I have two of them first, and I just wanted to come back those OpEx thing either for Greg or Sanjay, I thought the strategy and the SemiTest was with the idea is to engage earlier.

Greg，我首先有兩個，我只是想為 Greg 或 Sanjay 回歸那些 OpEx 的東西，我認為策略和 SemiTest 的想法是儘早參與。

And then on the GPU customer side was to get into the networking test side with the semi just OpEx increase.

然後，在 GPU 客戶方面，我們將進入網路測試方面，營運支出也將增加。

Are you trying to build new platforms to compete?

您是否正在嘗試建立新的競爭平台？

And this is I understand that this is a structurally new OpEx level for the cemetery business closes.

據我了解，這是墓地業務關閉時結構上新的營運支出水準。

Just cyclical, trying to get market share.

只是周期性的，試圖獲得市場份額。

So on, I would consider it more to be cyclical on.

所以，我更認為它是周期性的。

It's not and And for sure, we're always trying to get more market share, right?

當然，我們一直在努力獲得更多的市場份額，對吧？

So that's kind of a given.

所以這是理所當然的。

But the thing that we're seeing is that the VIP. customers, they're building extremely complex devices and the amount of applications and of field technical support required to help them get to market is on is significant.

但我們看到的是 VIP。對於客戶來說，他們正在建造極其複雜的設備，幫助他們進入市場所需的應用程式和現場技術支援的數量是巨大的。

And it's worth it that if you invest that that money with that team, then you end up with a part that drives a significant amount of business.

值得的是，如果您將這筆錢投入到該團隊中，那麼您最終將獲得一個能夠推動大量業務的部分。

So the ROI. is there to make those investments.

所以投資報酬率。是否可以進行這些投資。

But those investments right now, we are we are definitely in the phase where we're making more investments than we're reaping the results of them.

但現在的這些投資，我們肯定處於這樣一個階段：我們所進行的投資多於我們所獲得的成果。

So I think it is a cyclical effect on long term.

所以我認為這是長期的周期性影響。

I would expect that we would be able to on like I think we will grow revenue into the OpEx that we're taking on on not reduce OpEx, again, lower revenue.

我希望我們能夠像我認為的那樣將收入增加到我們正在承擔的營運支出中，而不是減少營運支出，再次降低收入。

That's sort of the view that we have that by getting in place in these IP and networking spaces that we're going to be able to hold and grow without without proportionate increase in OpEx the whole way.

我們認為，透過在這些 IP 和網路空間中佔有一席之地，我們將能夠維持並發展這些空間，而無需全程按比例增加營運支出。

Cargo is very helpful, Greg, and do a quick follow up on HBM. on.

Cargo 非常有幫助，Greg，並對 HBM 進行了快速跟進。在。

Can you talk a little bit about your opportunity and market share in the post guide that this will also be resolved?

您能否在後期指南中談談您的機會和市場份額，這也將得到解決？

Okay.

好的。

So on.

很快。

So on post stack die test, that's a market that Teradyne was not able to participate in and how we were qualified by our major supplier in the middle of this year.

因此，在堆疊後晶片測試方面，這是泰瑞達無法參與的市場，以及我們如何在今年年中獲得主要供應商的認可。

And so we have significant excess capital for SaaS side performance tests in the second half of this year from one of the major HVM suppliers we are in call add an additional OEM supplier.

因此，我們在今年下半年從主要 HVM 供應商之一獲得了用於 SaaS 端效能測試的大量過剩資金，我們正在呼籲添加額外的 OEM 供應商。

And that's something that we would expect to drive some revenue in 2025 on depending on the success of that particular supplier to get share.

我們預計這將在 2025 年帶來一些收入，具體取決於特定供應商能否成功獲得份額。

How when it comes to wafer, sort of that's really more aligned to sort of the traditional traditional market share breakdown in the wafer starts storage space.

當談到晶圓時，這實際上更符合晶圓儲存空間的傳統市場份額細分。

So if you look at the bill is just a few two important memory players are we have great DRAM wafer starts share at one of the majors.

因此，如果你看一下帳單，你會發現這只是少數兩個重要的記憶體廠商，我們在其中一個主要廠商中擁有龐大的 DRAM 晶圓開工份額。

We don't have much wafer start per share at the biggest on.

我們沒有太多的每股晶圓起始量。

And we have we're doing well in the on the memory manufacturers that are in China also as they grow, we will do well as well.

我們在中國的記憶體製造商方面做得很好，隨著他們的成長，我們也會做得很好。

So I think of wafer sort, it is probably the shares the share space in wafer sort of kind of stay about the same.

所以我想到了晶圓排序，晶圓排序中的共享空間可能保持大致相同。

But we're going to be gaining share and stacked die.

但我們將獲得份額並堆疊晶片。

Thanks a lot, Greg, very helpful.

非常感謝，格雷格，非常有幫助。

Our final question comes from Gus Richard of Northland Capital.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Northland Capital 的格斯理查德。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Hi, yes, thanks for taking my question.

你好，是的，謝謝你提出我的問題。

On China.

關於中國。

Ask about Tom.

詢問湯姆的情況。

Your expectations for complexity grows and mobile processors on next generation next year on inclusion of more AI capability, perhaps on integration of modem.

您對複雜性的期望不斷增長，明年下一代行動處理器將包含更多人工智慧功能，也許會整合數據機。

Do you have any thoughts or any thoughts on what that might look like in 25?

您對 25 年後的情況有什麼想法或想法嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So on, it's interesting.

如此下去，就很有趣了。

It's an interesting take the on the devices that are going to ramp next year are at the test chip phase now on and and will we expect that there's modest Matas complexity increases on and a lot of that complexity increases associated with a I of modems is a different story that we don't see a trend towards additional mode, some integration, but we do see the opportunity for on changes in supply chain for Motive that you felt like different handset manufacturers may begin to get us to get motorhomes from different sources.

這是一個有趣的看法，明年即將推出的設備目前正處於測試晶片階段，我們是否預計 Matas 複雜性會適度增加，而其中許多複雜性的增加與調製解調器相關。模式、某些整合的趨勢，但我們確實看到了Motive 供應鏈變化的機會，你覺得不同的手機製造商可能會開始讓我們從不同的來源獲得房車。

And they get now in that feel that that's at play both in the iOS . and the Android space so on.

他們現在感覺到這在 iOS 中都在發揮作用。以及Android空間等等。

So we don't we don't see modem integration, but we do see sort of shifts in terms of who's providing those modems.

因此，我們沒有看到調製解調器集成，但我們確實看到了提供這些調製解調器的人發生了某種變化。

Great.

偉大的。

That's super helpful.

這非常有幫助。

And then just touching on capacity utilization on new indicated it was up sequentially, and I was just wondering if you could quantify that a bit more.

然後，只要觸及新的產能利用率，就表明它是連續上升的，我只是想知道您是否可以進一步量化這一點。

What was it in Q3 on what are you thinking beyond Q2, Q3 and Q4, how it's SOC utilization on trend it.

第三季是什麼，您對第二季、第三季和第四季之後的想法是什麼，SOC 利用率的趨勢如何。

Can you quantify that?

你能量化一下嗎？

I wish I could, but I can't we have the numbers and we use them internally and we don't feel that they are well as our auditors to use them externally in this way, saying that I can tell you is that it's on It's up a fair amount quarter-on-quarter, sort of mid- to high single digits range.

我希望我可以，但我不能，我們有這些數字，我們在內部使用它們，我們覺得他們不適合我們的審計師以這種方式在外部使用它們，我可以告訴你的是，它是在它比上一季有相當大的成長，在中高個位數範圍內。

But I don't really want to give absolute numbers because it's hard for us to do audit.

但我真的不想給出絕對數字，因為我們很難進行審計。

And whether that continues in the fourth quarter, my expectation is that we will see significant continued increases in utilization in Q4, both because of normal seasonality and also because of the number of testers that we have upgrade kits to go from one market to another like someone is not going to upgrade a utilized investor to use it someplace else.

無論這種情況在第四季度持續下去，我的預期是，我們將在第四季度看到利用率的持續大幅增長，這既是因為正常的季節性，也是因為我們擁有從一個市場到另一個市場的測試人員數量有人不會升級已使用的投資者以將其用於其他地方。

They're going to upgrade an underutilized tester.

他們將升級一個未充分利用的測試儀。

So that's probably going to slide a bunch of testers from the unutilized column into the utilized column.

因此，這可能會將一群測試人員從未使用的列滑入已使用的列。

So I think there's going to be additional improvement in utilization in Q4, but I can't give you a hard number.

因此，我認為第四季的利用率將會進一步提高，但我無法給你一個確切的數字。

Got it.

知道了。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

Appreciate it.

欣賞它。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, we have reached the end of the question-and-answer session.

女士們、先生們，問答環節已經結束。

I will now hand over to Traci Tsuchiguchi for closing remarks.

現在請特雷西·土口 (Traci Tsuchiguchi) 致閉幕詞。

Thanks so much for joining us this morning.

非常感謝您今天早上加入我們。

We look forward to speaking with many of you through the course of this quarter.

我們期待在本季與你們中的許多人交談。

Thanks again.

再次感謝。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's event.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，今天的活動到此結束。

Thank you for attending, and you may now disconnect your lines.

感謝您的出席，您現在可以斷開線路了。