Teradyne 討論了其 2025 年第一季的財務業績,強調了強勁的銷售和盈利。由於貿易政策的影響和缺乏可見性,他們正在謹慎地管理開支。該公司對各個領域的成長機會持樂觀態度,並對應對當前的宏觀經濟環境充滿信心。
他們預計第二季的銷售額將在 6.1 億美元至 6.8 億美元之間,關稅的影響微乎其微。泰瑞達計劃提高股票回購目標,並專注於成長策略投資。機器人業務預計將隨著時間的推移而成長,為半導體客戶提供額外的價值。
使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Greetings. Welcome to Teradyne Incorporated first quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.
問候。歡迎參加 Teradyne Incorporated 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。(操作員指示)提醒一下,本次會議正在錄音。
It is now my pleasure to introduce Traci Tsuchiguchi , Vice President, Investor Relations. Thank you, you may begin.
現在我很高興介紹投資者關係副總裁 Traci Tsuchiguchi。謝謝,你可以開始了。
Traci Tsuchiguchi - Vice President - Corporate Affairs
Traci Tsuchiguchi - Vice President - Corporate Affairs
Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our discussion of Teradyne's most recent financial results. I'm joined this morning by our CEO, Greg Smith; and our CFO, Sanjay Mehta. Following our opening remarks, we'll provide details of our performance for the first quarter of 2025 and our outlook for the second quarter of 2025.
謝謝您,接線生。大家早安,歡迎參加我們對泰瑞達最新財務表現的討論。今天上午,我們的執行長 Greg Smith 也加入了我;以及我們的財務長 Sanjay Mehta。在我們的開場白之後,我們將詳細介紹 2025 年第一季的業績以及 2025 年第二季的展望。
The press release containing our first quarter results was issued last evening. We are providing slides as well as a copy of this earnings script on the Investor page of the Teradyne website that may be helpful in following the discussion. Replays of this call will be available via the same page after the call ends.
包含我們第一季業績的新聞稿已於昨晚發布。我們在 Teradyne 網站的投資者頁面上提供了幻燈片以及該收益腳本的副本,這可能有助於後續討論。通話結束後,可在同一頁面上重播本次通話。
The matters that we discuss today will include forward-looking statements that involve risks that could cause Teradyne's results to differ materially from management's current expectations. We caution listeners not to place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements included in this presentation.
我們今天討論的事項將包括前瞻性陳述,其中涉及的風險可能導致泰瑞達的業績與管理層目前的預期有重大差異。我們提醒聽眾不要過度依賴本簡報中的任何前瞻性陳述。
We encourage you to review the safe harbor statement contained in the slides accompanying this presentation as well as the risk factors described in our annual report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2024, on file with the SEC.
我們鼓勵您查看本簡報附帶的幻燈片中的安全港聲明以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日的財政年度的 10-K 表年度報告中描述的風險因素。
Additionally, these forward-looking statements are made only as of today, and we do not undertake any obligation to update forward-looking statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances, except to the extent required by law.
此外,這些前瞻性陳述僅截至今天作出,我們不承擔更新前瞻性陳述以反映後續事件或情況的任何義務,除非法律要求。
During today's call, we will refer to non-GAAP financial measures. We have posted additional information concerning these non-GAAP financial measures, including reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures were available on the Investor page of our website.
在今天的電話會議中,我們將參考非公認會計準則財務指標。我們已發布有關這些非 GAAP 財務指標的更多信息,包括與最直接可比的 GAAP 財務指標的對賬,這些資訊可在我們網站的投資者頁面上找到。
Looking ahead between now and our next earnings call, Teradyne expects to participate in the technology and industrial-focused investor conferences hosted by JPMorgan, TD Cowen and Stifel. Our quiet period will begin at the close of business on June 20, 2025.
展望從現在到我們下一次收益電話會議期間,泰瑞達預計將參加由摩根大通、TD Cowen 和 Stifel 主辦的以技術和工業為重點的投資者會議。我們的靜默期將於 2025 年 6 月 20 日下班後開始。
Following Greg and Sanjay's comments this morning, we'll open up the call for questions. This call is scheduled for one hour. Greg?
根據格雷格和桑傑今天上午的評論,我們將開始提問。此次通話預計可持續一小時。格雷格?
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks, Traci. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. Today, I'll discuss our first quarter results and provide an update on the trends that we are seeing across our businesses. Sanjay will then provide more detail on our first quarter results and second quarter guidance.
謝謝,特蕾西。大家早安,感謝大家的參與。今天,我將討論我們的第一季業績並提供我們在整個業務中看到的趨勢的最新資訊。隨後,桑傑將提供有關我們第一季業績和第二季指引的更多詳細資訊。
It's been seven weeks since our Analyst Day and the long-term themes that we discussed, AI, verticalization and electrification remain the primary industry drivers that we expect will accelerate our growth trajectory in the years ahead.
我們的分析師日已經過去七週了,我們討論的長期主題、人工智慧、垂直化和電氣化仍然是主要的行業驅動力,我們預計這些將在未來幾年加速我們的成長軌跡。
In the near term, the combination of trade policy and our customers' heightened uncertainty around end market demand has caused orders to push out as we discussed last month. Although the direct impact of current and anticipated 90 day tariffs on our model is minimal, we are more concerned about the impact of tariffs on the end market demand.
短期內,貿易政策和客戶對終端市場需求不確定性的加劇導致訂單推遲,正如我們上個月所討論的那樣。雖然當前和預期的 90 天關稅對我們的模型的直接影響很小,但我們更關心關稅對終端市場需求的影響。
Many of our customers, primarily in the mobile, automotive and industrial segments are reviewing their capital acquisition plans, and we do not have firm forecasts from them at this time.
我們的許多客戶,主要在行動、汽車和工業領域,正在審查他們的資本收購計劃,目前我們還沒有得到他們的確切預測。
Beyond the second quarter, our visibility is very limited. As such, we are not commenting on or reaffirming our expectations beyond the second quarter. We delivered first quarter revenue towards the high end of our guidance range with gross margin and earnings per share above the high end of our expectations.
在第二季度之後,我們的可見度非常有限。因此,我們不會對第二季之後的預期發表評論或重申。我們第一季的收入達到了指導範圍的高端,毛利率和每股收益高於我們的預期高端。
Strength in Semi Test, specifically SoC for the mobile end market, drove year-over-year growth. This mobile demand is transitory and related to some supply chain transitions at our customers rather than a signal of end market recovery.
半測試領域實力雄厚,特別是針對行動裝置市場的 SoC,推動了年成長。這種移動需求是暫時的,與我們客戶的一些供應鏈轉型有關,而不是終端市場復甦的訊號。
Our compute revenue also grew year-over-year in Q1 with record loading on our UltraFLEX and UltraFLEXplus testers for AI accelerators. Revenue in our product test and robotics test divisions were generally in line with our expectations in Q1.
我們第一季的運算收入也較去年同期成長,我們的 UltraFLEX 和 UltraFLEXplus AI 加速器測試儀的負載創下了歷史新高。我們產品測試和機器人測試部門的第一季收入基本上符合我們的預期。
In Semi Test, SoC delivered above our plan, and memory was in line with our expectations as customers digest the HBM or high bandwidth memory capacity that was put in place last year. In the quarter, our memory business unit secured a coveted HBM 4 performance test win with a major DRAM manufacturer, which is expected to begin shipping in the second half of this year.
在半測試中,SoC 的交付超出了我們的計劃,隨著客戶消化去年實施的 HBM 或高頻寬記憶體容量,記憶體也符合我們的預期。本季度,我們的記憶體業務部門與一家大型 DRAM 製造商合作,獲得了令人垂涎的 HBM 4 性能測試勝利,預計將於今年下半年開始出貨。
This is our first DRAM wafer win at this customer and a major milestone for our memory business. Our IST business, or integrated system test, delivered first quarter results in line with our expectations and achieved initial customer acceptance for the new Titan-HP targeted at system level test of AI accelerators.
這是我們首次從該客戶贏得 DRAM 晶圓,也是我們記憶體業務的重要里程碑。我們的 IST 業務(即整合系統測試)第一季的業績符合我們的預期,並且針對 AI 加速器系統級測試的新型 Titan-HP 獲得了客戶的初步認可。
We are seeing new opportunities emerging in the IST space with both new and existing customers. All of the businesses in our newly formed product test division delivered first quarter results in line with our expectations. While the wireless test end market for our LitePoint business has been generally weak since 2023. The team has continued to secure the majority of opportunities in wireless networking sockets.
我們看到 IST 領域正在為新舊客戶提供新的機會。我們新成立的產品測試部門的所有業務第一季的業績均符合我們的預期。而我們LitePoint業務的無線測試端市場自2023年以來一直普遍疲軟。團隊繼續確保無線網路插座中的大多數機會。
In the first quarter, LitePoint won 13 of 13 of the WiFi 7 wireless test opportunities. A critical aspect of our strategy to gain share in high-performance computing is to establish a leadership position in silicon photonics test.
第一季度,LitePoint贏得了13個WiFi 7無線測試機會中的13個。我們在高效能運算領域獲得份額的策略的一個關鍵方面是在矽光子測試領域確立領導地位。
In support of that goal, we believe that we are on track to close the acquisition of Quantifi Photonics in the second quarter. In the first quarter, our Robotics division executed a structural reorganization, consolidating the customer-facing sales, marketing and service organizations between UR and MiR. Our robotics team has responded with resilience in what continues to be a very challenging macro backdrop.
為了實現這一目標,我們相信我們將在第二季完成對 Quantifi Photonics 的收購。第一季度,我們的機器人部門進行了結構重組,整合了 UR 和 MiR 之間面向客戶的銷售、行銷和服務組織。在持續面臨嚴峻挑戰的宏觀背景下,我們的機器人團隊展現了堅韌的應對能力。
In the quarter, Teradyne Robotics received the largest order in its history from a global automotive manufacturer for both MiR AMRs and UR cobot arms. The new PalletJack MiR 1200 is now in the hands of distributors and select lead customers and pilot installations are running.
本季度,泰瑞達機器人公司從一家全球汽車製造商獲得了其歷史上最大的訂單,訂單內容包括 MiR AMR 和 UR 協作機器人手臂。新款 PalletJack MiR 1200 現已交付給經銷商和部分主要客戶,試點安裝正在進行中。
Moving on to Q2. As we discussed at our Analyst Day, we have seen customers push order delivery out from the second quarter into future quarters due to the uncertainty international trade policy could have on end market demand.
進入第二季。正如我們在分析師日所討論的那樣,由於國際貿易政策對終端市場需求的不確定性,我們看到客戶將訂單交付從第二季推遲到未來幾季。
Despite this, our view of Q2 remains in line with the expectations that we set in March. Given the lack of visibility and the impact that trade policy may have on the industry and our business, we are prudently managing expenses. While there are systematic OpEx savings that are delivered by our flexible business model and variable compensation strategy, we are also actively managing expenses with the objective of generating operating leverage.
儘管如此,我們對第二季的展望仍然與我們 3 月設定的預期一致。鑑於缺乏可見性以及貿易政策可能對行業和我們的業務產生的影響,我們正在謹慎地管理費用。雖然我們靈活的業務模式和可變薪酬策略可以實現系統性的營運支出節省,但我們也在積極管理費用,以產生營運槓桿。
With our strong balance sheet, consistent free cash flow generation, low capital intensity and variable operating model, we are continuing critical investments and are positioning ourselves to drive growth as customers figure out their strategy in the current macro environment.
憑藉我們強勁的資產負債表、持續的自由現金流產生、低資本密集度和靈活的營運模式,我們將繼續進行關鍵投資,並在客戶在當前宏觀環境下制定策略時,為推動成長做好準備。
We see green shoots of evidence of this across Teradyne as our business units address emerging opportunities and increasingly work across divisions to better solve customer problems.
隨著我們的業務部門抓住新興機會並加強跨部門合作以更好地解決客戶問題,我們在泰瑞達的各個部門都看到了這方面的證據。
TAS or Teradyne Automated Solutions is a great example. Semiconductor customers are interested in automating particularly their back-end processes, which are still quite labor-intensive. In the first quarter, we announced the strategic partnership with ADI, which will deploy UR cobots and MiR AMRs to support ADI's collaborative automation initiative.
TAS 或 Teradyne Automated Solutions 就是一個很好的例子。半導體客戶對自動化特別感興趣,特別是後端流程,因為這些流程仍然需要大量勞動力。第一季度,我們宣布與ADI建立策略合作夥伴關係,ADI將部署UR協作機器人和MiR AMR,以支援ADI的協作自動化計畫。
The semiconductor market is one of the segments our robotics business is targeting to drive diversified growth. Within Semi Test, IST is working hand-in-hand with our SoC team to help current and potential customers in the AI compute space cost-effectively optimized test insertion points.
半導體市場是我們機器人業務為推動多元化成長而瞄準的領域之一。在半測試領域,IST 與我們的 SoC 團隊攜手合作,幫助 AI 運算領域的現有和潛在客戶以經濟高效的方式優化測試插入點。
We are seeing this with our first Titan-HP customer acceptance and revenue in Q1 from a hyperscaler customer. And in product test, our PBT or production board test, business, which has historically been strongest in the automotive industry is making gains in AI compute where technologies pioneered by Semi Test are being leveraged to help hyperscalers test server-level products.
我們從首批 Titan-HP 客戶接受度和第一季超大規模客戶的收入中看到了這一點。在產品測試方面,我們的 PBT 或生產板測試業務歷來在汽車行業表現最強勁,在人工智慧運算領域也取得了進展,其中 Semi Test 率先採用的技術被用於幫助超大規模企業測試伺服器級產品。
The increasing complexity and high cost of failure of these end products is creating sizable opportunities for us. In the mobile space, after years of overcapacity, utilization rates have improved considerably, as evidenced by new system orders for AI compute complementing upgrades of underutilized mobile testers.
這些最終產品的日益複雜和高昂的故障成本為我們創造了巨大的機會。在行動領域,經過多年的產能過剩,利用率已大幅提高,這從人工智慧運算的新系統訂單補充了未充分利用的行動測試儀的升級中可以看出。
We have started to see improvement in LPDDR for mobile applications, and we started shipping our next-generation image sensor testers for the mobile market in Q1 of 2025. We are also winning new opportunities in SLT in the mobile market. With 2 nanometer and gate all around on the horizon, we are optimistic that as demand recovers, the setup for our mobile business is good.
我們已經開始看到 LPDDR 在行動應用方面的改進,並且我們將於 2025 年第一季開始向行動市場推出下一代影像感測器測試儀。我們還在行動市場中贏得了SLT的新機會。隨著 2 奈米和閘極技術的即將問世,我們樂觀地認為,隨著需求的復甦,我們的行動業務將有良好的準備。
We cannot predict the impact that dynamic trade policies will have on global end demand, but we know that Teradyne has historically emerged stronger coming out of challenging macroeconomic periods. We expect that to be the case in 2025 as well.
我們無法預測動態貿易政策對全球終端需求的影響,但我們知道,從歷史上看,泰瑞達在走出充滿挑戰的宏觀經濟時期後表現得更強大。我們預計 2025 年的情況也是如此。
With that, I'll turn the call over to Sanjay.
說完這些,我會把電話轉給桑傑。
Sanjay Mehta - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President
Sanjay Mehta - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President
Thank you, Greg. Good morning, everyone. Today, I'll cover the financial summary of Q1 and provide our Q2 outlook. Now to Q1. First quarter sales were $686 million, which was towards the high-end of our guidance with non-GAAP EPS of $0.75, above our high-end guide of $0.68. Non-GAAP gross margins were 60.6%. This was above our guidance due primarily to product mix.
謝謝你,格雷格。大家早安。今天,我將介紹第一季的財務摘要並提供第二季的展望。現在進入第一季。第一季的銷售額為 6.86 億美元,接近我們預期的高端,非 GAAP 每股收益為 0.75 美元,高於我們預期的高端 0.68 美元。非公認會計準則毛利率為60.6%。這高於我們的預期,主要是因為產品組合。
Non-GAAP operating expenses were $275 million, up year-over-year as we have increased our investment and target opportunities to drive longer-term growth. That said, it's down sequentially as part of our implemented spending controls. Non-GAAP operating profit was 20.5%.
非公認會計準則營運費用為 2.75 億美元,年成長,因為我們增加了投資並瞄準機會以推動長期成長。也就是說,作為我們實施的支出控制的一部分,它正在逐步下降。非公認會計準則營業利潤為20.5%。
Turning to our revenue breakdown in Q1. Semi Test revenue for the quarter was $543 million, with SoC revenue contributing $406 million; Memory, $109 million; and IST, $27 million. Strength in SoC was driven primarily by mobile. As expected, memory revenue was lower as customers digest the HBM test equipment delivered in 2024.
談談我們第一季的營收細目。本季半測試收入為 5.43 億美元,其中 SoC 收入貢獻 4.06 億美元;內存,1.09億美元; IST 為 2700 萬美元。SoC 的優勢主要來自於行動領域。正如預期的那樣,由於客戶消化了 2024 年交付的 HBM 測試設備,記憶體收入有所下降。
We expect DRAM to dominate the memory mix in 2025 just as it did in 2024. IST revenue was $27 million, was up both sequentially and year-over-year, driven by new SLT shipments for mobile and our first AI compute revenue.
我們預計 DRAM 將在 2025 年佔據記憶體市場的主導地位,就像 2024 年一樣。IST 收入為 2700 萬美元,環比和同比增長,這得益於行動端新 SLT 出貨量和我們的首個 AI 計算收入。
In product test, Q1 revenue was $74 million, down 4% year-over-year with wireless test revenue of $29 million, up 20% year-over-year. This growth in wireless test was offset with weakness in production board test tied to the automotive industry and timing of programs in defense and aerospace.
在產品測試方面,第一季營收為 7,400 萬美元,年減 4%,其中無線測試收入為 2,900 萬美元,年增 20%。無線測試的成長被與汽車產業以及國防和航空航太專案時間相關的生產板測試的疲軟所抵消。
Now to robotics. Revenue was $69 million, declining both sequentially and year-over-year. In the quarter, UR contributed $49 million and MiR contributed $20 million. While the long-term drivers of AI and onshoring and advanced robotics remain intact, near-term macro factors continue to be a headwind.
現在談談機器人技術。營收為 6,900 萬美元,季比和年比均有所下降。本季度,UR 貢獻了 4,900 萬美元,MiR 貢獻了 2,000 萬美元。儘管人工智慧、在岸化和先進機器人技術的長期驅動力仍然存在,但短期宏觀因素仍構成阻力。
In robotics, the operating loss was $22 million, in line with our expectations. Given our restructuring, I'll share the GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliation of the loss. On a GAAP basis, our loss in Q1 was $37 million, including approximately $11 million in restructuring primarily associated with our go-to-market consolidation and $4 million of amortization of intangible assets. This restructuring has reduced our operating breakeven revenue from $440 million to $365 million as described in January.
機器人業務的營運虧損為 2,200 萬美元,符合我們的預期。鑑於我們的重組,我將分享 GAAP 與非 GAAP 損失的調整。以 GAAP 計算,我們第一季的虧損為 3,700 萬美元,其中包括主要與市場整合相關的重組損失約 1,100 萬美元,以及無形資產攤銷 400 萬美元。正如 1 月所述,此次重組使我們的營業盈虧平衡收入從 4.4 億美元減少到 3.65 億美元。
I'd like to highlight our life-to-date robotics GAAP results. Life to date, our GAAP losses are $231 million. Breaking that down, approximately $233 million of non-cash amortization of intangibles, $45 million of restructuring costs resulting and $47 million of cumulative non-GAAP operating profit.
我想重點介紹一下我們迄今為止的機器人 GAAP 結果。迄今為止,我們的 GAAP 虧損為 2.31 億美元。具體來說,無形資產非現金攤銷約 2.33 億美元,重組成本為 4,500 萬美元,累計非 GAAP 營業利潤為 4,700 萬美元。
Some other financial information in Q1. We had one customer that directly or indirectly drove more than 10% of our revenue in the first quarter. In Q1, 19% of our revenue was shipped to China, 12% in support of multinational customers and 7% in support of indigenous Chinese customers.
Q1 的一些其他財務資訊。我們有一位客戶在第一季直接或間接地為我們帶來了 10% 以上的收入。第一季度,我們的營收有 19% 銷往中國,12% 用於支援跨國客戶,7% 用於支援中國本土客戶。
For context, in the past two years, shipments to Chinese indigenous customers has been 5% of Teradyne's revenue. The tax rate excluding discrete items for the quarter was 13.5% on a GAAP and non-GAAP basis.
具體來說,過去兩年,對中國本土客戶的出貨量佔泰瑞達收入的 5%。本季不包括單項項目的稅率以 GAAP 和非 GAAP 計算均為 13.5%。
At a company level, our free cash flow was $98 million, primarily driven by earnings and net working capital improvements in the quarter. We repurchased $157 million of shares in the quarter and paid $19 million in dividends. We ended the quarter with $622 million in cash and marketable securities.
從公司層級來看,我們的自由現金流為 9,800 萬美元,主要受本季收益和淨營運資本改善的推動。我們在本季回購了價值 1.57 億美元的股票,並支付了 1,900 萬美元的股息。本季結束時,我們擁有 6.22 億美元的現金和有價證券。
Now turning to our outlook for Q2. Q2 sales are expected to be between $610 million and $680 million. Second quarter gross margins are estimated at 56.5% and 57.5%, a decrease quarter-over-quarter driven by product mix and lower volume.
現在來談談我們對第二季的展望。預計第二季銷售額在 6.1 億美元至 6.8 億美元之間。第二季毛利率預計為 56.5% 和 57.5%,受產品組合和銷售下降的影響,季減。
Q2 OpEx is expected to run at 40.5% to 44.5% of second quarter sales. The non-GAAP operating profit rate at the midpoint of our second quarter guidance is 14.5%, with non-GAAP EPS expected to be in the range of $0.41 to $0.64 on 161 million diluted shares. GAAP EPS is expected to be in the range of $0.35 to $0.58.
預計第二季營運支出將佔第二季銷售額的 40.5% 至 44.5%。我們第二季指引中點的非 GAAP 營業利潤率為 14.5%,預計非 GAAP 每股收益在 1.61 億股稀釋股份的 0.41 美元至 0.64 美元之間。預計 GAAP EPS 將在 0.35 美元至 0.58 美元之間。
Moving to the topic of tariffs. As Greg noted, the primary concern of the tariffs is the impact on the end market demand. As our manufacturing footprint and the location of our customers, we expect only a minimal impact on the efficiency of our business model. The impact of the tariff will generally be passed along to customers in affected regions.
轉到關稅話題。正如格雷格所指出的,關稅的主要擔憂是對終端市場需求的影響。由於我們的製造足跡和客戶所在地,我們預計這對我們的商業模式的效率只會產生極小的影響。關稅的影響通常會轉嫁給受影響地區的客戶。
In Q2, we expect to have a small increase of cost of sales and operating expenses, which amounts to approximately $0.02 of earnings for Q2, which is included in our guide. While we have assessed the financial impact due to tariffs in Q2, there is little ability to predict either the changes in tariff or trade policy or the magnitude of impact of the trade policy on end market demand.
在第二季度,我們預計銷售成本和營運費用將小幅增加,這相當於第二季度收益約 0.02 美元,這已包含在我們的指南中。雖然我們已經評估了第二季關稅造成的財務影響,但幾乎無法預測關稅或貿易政策的變化,或貿易政策對終端市場需求的影響程度。
As such, please do not rely on prior financial guidance that extend beyond the second quarter. That said, I'd like to provide additional color on the dynamics we're seeing in some of our markets.
因此,請不要依賴第二季度之後的先前財務指導。話雖如此,我想為我們在某些市場看到的動態提供更多細節。
In mobile, after two consecutive quarters of strength driven by some supply chain shifts, we expect our Q2 revenue for mobile to be lower. In Q2, we also expect a significant sequential decline in memory revenue as the market continues to digest installed HBM test capacity.
在行動領域,由於供應鏈轉變,行動業務連續兩季表現強勁,但我們預期第二季行動業務營收將會下降。在第二季度,隨著市場繼續消化已安裝的 HBM 測試容量,我們預計記憶體收入將大幅環比下降。
Looking out further, freight policy, including tariffs, are most likely to impact mobile, automotive and industrial end markets. Significant changes to the AI diffusion rule or semiconductor trade restrictions may impact the compute market.
進一步看,包括關稅在內的貨運政策最有可能影響移動、汽車和工業終端市場。人工智慧傳播規則或半導體貿易限制的重大變化可能會影響計算市場。
Turning to share buybacks. As noted in our press release, we've increased our share buyback target from $400 million in 2025 to up to $1 billion through the end of 2026, reflecting our confidence in our long-term plans and free cash flow generation.
轉向股票回購。正如我們的新聞稿中所述,我們已將股票回購目標從 2025 年的 4 億美元提高到 2026 年底的 10 億美元,這反映了我們對長期計畫和自由現金流產生的信心。
Summing up, we delivered strong sales, earnings and free cash flow in the first quarter. Our expectations for the second quarter are largely in line with our expectations provided at our Analyst Day, inclusive of the expected impact of tariffs.
總而言之,我們在第一季實現了強勁的銷售、獲利和自由現金流。我們對第二季度的預期與我們在分析師日提供的預期基本一致,其中包括關稅的預期影響。
While visibility remains limited and there is a heightened uncertainty on the end market demand, we are confident in the long-term drivers of AI, electrification and verticalization that will drive the industry and our businesses in the coming years.
儘管可見性仍然有限,並且終端市場需求的不確定性很大,但我們對人工智慧、電氣化和垂直化的長期驅動力充滿信心,這些驅動力將在未來幾年推動產業和我們的業務發展。
Our resilient variable business model and strong balance sheet enable us to continue to invest in areas of strategic importance as we await a broader end market recovery.
我們具有彈性的可變業務模式和強勁的資產負債表使我們能夠在等待更廣泛的終端市場復甦的同時繼續投資於具有戰略重要性的領域。
With that, I'll turn the call back to the operator to open the line up for questions. Operator?
說完這些,我將把電話轉回給接線生,以便大家可以提問。操作員?
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Krish Sankar, TD Cowen.
(操作員指示) Krish Sankar,TD Cowen。
Krish Sankar - Analyst
Krish Sankar - Analyst
Putting my question, Greg, you mentioned that how seven weeks ago at your Analyst Day you saw tariff-related pushouts. But now it seems like some of your OSAT customers are seeing tariff-related pull-ins. So I'm curious what are the dynamics you're seeing?
格雷格,提出我的問題是,您提到七週前在分析師日上您看到了與關稅相關的延遲。但現在看來,您的一些 OSAT 客戶正在遭遇與關稅相關的拉動。所以我很好奇您看到的動態是什麼樣的呢?
It seems like you're really seeing pushouts, no pull-ins, kind of like what end verticals is it coming from? Is it mostly auto analog industrials or are you also seeing this trend with mobile and HPC? And then had a quick follow-up.
看起來你真的看到了推出,沒有拉入,有點像它是從哪一端垂直方向來的?它主要是汽車模擬工業嗎,還是您在移動和 HPC 方面也看到了這種趨勢?然後進行了快速跟進。
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. Krish, so I think the effects of pull-ins for end orders, like people hurrying to get chips are mostly affecting capacity that -- it's using capacity that's already in place. We haven't seen significant pull-ins into Q1 or into Q2 to provide additional capital equipment to support that. So that's not a factor.
是的。Krish,所以我認為,對最終訂單的拉動效應,例如人們急於購買晶片,主要影響的是產能——它正在使用已經存在的產能。我們還沒有看到第一季或第二季大幅成長,以提供額外的資本設備來支持這一點。所以這不是一個因素。
The pushouts that we were talking about at Analyst Day are the situation is essentially the same as it was back then and the pushouts are primarily coming from our customers that serve the auto and industrial space. We haven't seen significant pushouts associated with mobile but we are concerned about the potential end market impact that is an effect yet to be seen that we don't have information about.
我們在分析師日談論的延期情況與當時基本相同,延期主要來自我們服務汽車和工業領域的客戶。我們尚未看到與行動相關的重大推廣,但我們擔心潛在的終端市場影響,這種影響尚待觀察,我們尚不掌握相關資訊。
Krish Sankar - Analyst
Krish Sankar - Analyst
Got it. Thanks, Greg. And then just a follow-up on the HPM wafer assortment win. Is this an existing HBM customer? Is it a new one? And also, typically, Teradyne has been better in final test because speed is more important. So I'm kind of curious what got you the wafer assortment? Thank you.
知道了。謝謝,格雷格。然後只是對 HPM 晶圓組合勝利的後續行動。這是現有的 HBM 客戶嗎?是新的嗎?而且,通常情況下,Teradyne 在最終測試中表現更佳,因為速度更為重要。所以我有點好奇你是怎麼得到這些威化餅的?謝謝。
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Okay. So the important thing to remember is that with HBM memory, there is now a performance test that occurs at wafer level. So this is a post stack test. So you do a core test of all of the DRAM wafers then you dice those wafers, you stack them up onto a substrate wafer, and then you do another wafer level test of the entire stacked HBM memory.
好的。因此,需要記住的重要一點是,對於 HBM 內存,現在可以在晶圓層級進行效能測試。所以這是一個堆疊後測試。因此,您需要對所有 DRAM 晶圓進行核心測試,然後將這些晶圓切割,將它們堆疊到基板晶圓上,然後對整個堆疊的 HBM 記憶體進行另一次晶圓級測試。
And that's a performance test that happens at higher speed. That's the insertion that we won, and that HBM4 win is with a customer we didn't have existing HBM3 or 3E business.
這是以更高速度進行的效能測試。這是我們贏得的插入,而 HBM4 的勝利是與我們目前沒有的 HBM3 或 3E 業務的客戶一起取得的。
Operator
Operator
CJ Muse, Cantor Fitzgerald.
CJ Muse、康托·菲茨傑拉德。
CJ Muse - Analyst
CJ Muse - Analyst
Yeah. Good morning. Thank you for taking the question. I guess, I understand not guiding to the second half given lack of visibility. But I'm hoping you could speak to what you can control? So how are you thinking about what the new gross margin range would look like for the full calendar year? And do you have an updated view on how we should be thinking about OpEx?
是的。早安.感謝您回答這個問題。我想,我理解由於缺乏可見性,無法指導下半場。但我希望你能談談你能控制什麼?那麼您認為全年新的毛利率範圍會是怎麼樣的呢?您對我們應該如何看待營運支出有什麼最新的看法嗎?
Sanjay Mehta - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President
Sanjay Mehta - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President
Yeah. Hi, CJ. It's Sanjay. So for the full calendar year, given the uncertainty on the topline, the impact of the tariffs or the trade policy, for the revenue mix is really a large factor. So we're not providing any guide for the gross margin. I will share that our first half from a gross margin perspective percentage wise is roughly in line with where we expected Q1, a little bit better and as we're guiding Q2, a little bit worse.
是的。你好,CJ。是桑傑。因此,對於全年而言,考慮到收入的不確定性,關稅或貿易政策的影響對於收入結構來說確實是一個重要因素。因此,我們沒有提供任何毛利率指引。我想說的是,從毛利率的角度來看,我們上半年的百分比與我們對第一季的預期大致一致,略好一些,而根據我們對第二季的預測,略差一些。
But overall, in the first half, percentage wise, we're aligned. And given the uncertainty of the topline, we're not providing any guide for the second half. From an OpEx perspective, the story is it may sound a little bit redundant, but from a variable compensation model perspective, what we'll see is depending on the revenue flux, if the revenue comes down, we'll have a favorable impact, lower spend.
但整體而言,從百分比來看,上半年我們的表現是一致的。鑑於營收的不確定性,我們不會為下半年提供任何指引。從營運支出的角度來看,這個故事可能聽起來有點多餘,但從可變薪酬模型的角度來看,我們會看到,這取決於收入變化,如果收入下降,我們就會有有利的影響,降低支出。
If it goes up, we'll have more spend. But the narrative is consistent where we're going to prioritize our Semi Test, our engineering and our go-to-market. You saw the restructuring in robotics in Q1. You should see that decline year-over-year. And from an OpEx perspective and product test, it should be roughly flattish to the prior year.
如果價格上漲,我們的支出就會增加。但敘述是一致的,我們將優先考慮我們的半成品測試、我們的工程和我們的行銷。您在第一季看到了機器人技術的重組。您應該會看到這種趨勢逐年下降。從營運支出角度和產品測試來看,它應該與前一年大致持平。
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
So if you don't mind, Sanjay, I'd like to add one historical perspective to that, CJ. If you look into past situations where we have had like a sharp downturn within a year, like from 2022 to 2023 -- in the middle of '23, we had a sharp slowdown in the mobile space that occurred mid-year and our margins went from 59% in 2022 to 57% in 2023.
所以如果你不介意的話,桑傑,我想補充一個歷史觀點,CJ。如果你回顧過去的情況,我們會發現我們在一年內經歷了一次急劇的下滑,例如從 2022 年到 2023 年——在 2023 年中期,我們的移動領域在年中出現了急劇的放緩,我們的利潤率從 2022 年的 59% 下降到了 2023 年的 57%。
So we're not calling a gross margin for the full year because we don't have a good picture of the full year. The thing I want to emphasize is that it's probably going to move in a pretty narrow range.
因此,我們不會公佈全年的毛利率,因為我們對全年的情況並不十分清楚。我想強調的是,它可能會在一個相當狹窄的範圍內波動。
CJ Muse - Analyst
CJ Muse - Analyst
Very helpful context. And I guess as my follow-up, I was hoping you could speak to the SLT wins that you highlighted in your prepared remarks. So can you give us a little more color on what you're seeing with AI accelerators? And then also on the mobility side of 2 nanometer, is that just a win at your large existing customer or have you broadened your design wins in that arena? Thank you.
非常有用的背景。我想作為我的後續問題,我希望您能談談您在準備好的發言中強調的 SLT 勝利。那麼,您能否向我們詳細介紹一下您對 AI 加速器的看法?那麼在 2 奈米的移動性方面,這僅僅是您現有的大客戶的勝利嗎?還是您擴大了在該領域的設計勝利?謝謝。
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. So I'm glad you asked for clarification around the mobile SLT win. So in my script, it was sort of two separate thoughts that we have won additional mobile sockets that are going to drive business in 2025 and into 2026. A separate thought is the transition to 2 nanometer is going to be a positive demand tailwind in 2026 as well.
是的。所以我很高興您要求澄清有關移動 SLT 勝利的問題。因此,在我的腳本中,這有點像兩個獨立的想法,我們贏得了額外的行動插座,這將推動 2025 年和 2026 年的業務。另一個想法是,向 2 奈米的過渡也將成為 2026 年積極的需求順風。
I didn't mean to imply that we won an SLT 2 nanometer socket. So I just want to make sure that we're really clear about that. On AI accelerators, this is a leading edge trend. What we're seeing is that AI accelerator devices when they're being incorporated into higher-level assemblies, those assemblies have higher than acceptable failure rate as they're being built into servers and it takes a significant amount of time to get the test coverage that you need for these devices and many of the failures can only be found when they are running actual like training workloads.
我並不是說我們贏得了 SLT 2 奈米插座。所以我只是想確保我們確實清楚這一點。對於人工智慧加速器來說,這是一個前沿趨勢。我們看到的是,當人工智慧加速器設備被整合到更高級別的組件中時,這些組件的故障率高於可接受的水平,因為它們被內置到伺服器中,並且需要花費大量時間才能獲得這些設備所需的測試覆蓋率,而且許多故障只有在運行實際的訓練工作負載時才能發現。
The most cost-effective way to be able to run those training workloads is to do it in a system level test environment. And so, we've implemented that for a leading-edge AI accelerator. We've delivered that product. That product has been accepted and is being used in production right now.
運行這些訓練工作負載的最具成本效益的方式是在系統層級測試環境中進行。因此,我們已經將其應用於尖端的人工智慧加速器。我們已經交付該產品。該產品已被接受並且目前正在生產中使用。
The trend that we believe is going to happen is that with next-generation accelerators that are even more complex that a 100% SLT is going to be the most economic choice that these customers will make in order to achieve the quality levels that they need.
我們相信,隨著下一代加速器的出現,其將變得更加複雜,100% SLT 將成為這些客戶為達到其所需的品質水準所做的最經濟的選擇。
So this is the tip of the spear when it comes to SLT of these devices. And the key thing that we have is a great solution around the thermal control and power required to do this. So it's an important strategic win that is going to deliver significant revenue in 2026.
因此,當涉及到這些設備的 SLT 時,這就是尖端技術。而我們的關鍵在於針對實現這一目標所需的熱控制和功率,找到了一個很好的解決方案。因此,這是一場重要的策略性勝利,將在 2026 年帶來可觀的收入。
Operator
Operator
Timothy Arcuri, UBS.
瑞銀的提摩西·阿庫裡。
Timothy Arcuri - Analyst
Timothy Arcuri - Analyst
Thanks a lot. Greg, you talked about -- I think you said the biggest robotics order ever. I think you talked about that in the script. June has historically been all over the map. I mean, if you said it's normal seasonal, it's pretty flat I guess in June. So can you talk about that order? What was it for? What does it tell you about the business and when is it going to hit?
多謝。格雷格,你談到了——我想你說的是有史以來最大的機器人訂單。我認為你在劇本中談到了這一點。從歷史上看,六月是多變的。我的意思是,如果你說這是正常的季節性,那麼我猜六月的情況相當平穩。那你能談談這個命令嗎?這是為了什麼?它告訴您有關業務的什麼資訊以及什麼時候會產生影響?
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. Sure. So as we've said in the script, it's for an automotive customer. And this has been historically large strategic customer for us for both UR and MiR for a while. This is the first -- it's the largest order for our AMRs that we've ever received. And it's the first time that we've received an order where we dealt with this customer in a combined way as a robotics unit versus a UR and MiR unit.
是的。當然。正如我們在腳本中所說的那樣,它是為汽車客戶準備的。一直以來,這都是 UR 和 MiR 的重要策略客戶。這是我們收到的第一個 AMR 訂單,也是最大的訂單。這是我們第一次接到這樣的訂單,我們以機器人部門而非 UR 和 MiR 部門的聯合方式與該客戶打交道。
So it demonstrated the ability to transition the sales force to selling all of our products to these strategic customers. The product is primarily used in -- so for the AMRs, they're primarily used in the material handling part of the factory. So essentially, they bring parts from storage to line side and then the other automation takes that and brings it into the product being assembled.
因此,它展示了將銷售人員轉變為向這些策略客戶銷售我們所有產品的能力。該產品主要用於 - 對於 AMR 而言,它們主要用於工廠的物料處理部分。因此,本質上,他們將零件從倉庫運送到生產線邊,然後其他自動化系統將其運送到正在組裝的產品中。
The cobot arms are generally used to automate manual processes in existing factories. So when they build a factory, they will design in the core automation for the assembly line. There is a significant amount of manual operations that occur, especially as the product gets further through the process.
協作機器人手臂通常用於實現現有工廠中手動流程的自動化。因此,當他們建造工廠時,他們會設計裝配線的核心自動化。會出現大量的手動操作,特別是當產品進一步經過該過程時。
And after the factory is commissioned, this customer will continually look for process improvements and collaborative robotics is one of the key technologies that they use for those kinds of improvements because they don't have to make sure that the automation and the workers are separated. So it's an ongoing continuous improvement investment from this customer on the cobot side.
工廠投入使用後,該客戶將不斷尋求流程改進,而協作機器人是他們用於此類改進的關鍵技術之一,因為他們不必確保自動化和工人分開。因此,這是該客戶在協作機器人方面持續改進的投資。
Timothy Arcuri - Analyst
Timothy Arcuri - Analyst
And when does it help the business? And then, Sanjay, can you give us some TAM updates from what you provided during the Analyst Day? You had said [49 SSC, 14 memory] and then you had all the breakdown within SSC. Is there any change to that that you would want to highlight?
它什麼時候對業務有幫助?然後,桑傑,您能否根據您在分析師日期間提供的資訊向我們提供一些 TAM 更新?你曾說過 [49 SSC,14 記憶],然後你就在 SSC 內發現了所有故障。您是否想強調一下其中的改變?
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
So Tim, I didn't quite catch the first part of your question around that?
那麼提姆,我不太明白你問題的第一部分?
Timothy Arcuri - Analyst
Timothy Arcuri - Analyst
Yeah. Greg, I was just trying to understand like, I mean, like this is such a big order, when does it help the business? Does it ship in the back half of the year? Does it ship in June? When is the ship?
是的。格雷格,我只是想了解一下,我的意思是,這是一個這麼大的訂單,它什麼時候對業務有幫助?它是在下半年發貨嗎?六月出貨嗎?船什麼時候到?
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
No. So its shipments are spread out through from Q1 into Q2. So it wouldn't extend into the second half of this year. The lead times on the robotics products are generally pretty short.
不。因此其出貨量從第一季分散到第二季。因此它不會延續到今年下半年。機器人產品的交貨時間通常很短。
Sanjay Mehta - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President
Sanjay Mehta - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President
And then maybe addressing your next request. As we've said in the prepared remarks, given the uncertainty, we're not providing an update on the TAM and the breakdown for the full year.
然後也許會處理您的下一個請求。正如我們在準備好的評論中所說的那樣,鑑於不確定性,我們不會提供 TAM 的更新以及全年的細分情況。
Operator
Operator
Samik Chatterjee, JPMorgan.
摩根大通的 Samik Chatterjee。
Priyanka Thapa - Analyst
Priyanka Thapa - Analyst
Hi. This is Priyanka Thapa on for Samik Chatterjee. My question is on secondary impact for tariffs. Have you observed a shift among international customers towards non-US competitors in the testing space? Or have you noticed that your competitive positioning has remained stable?
你好。這是 Priyanka Thapa,取代 Samik Chatterjee 演出。我的問題是關於關稅的次生影響。您是否觀察到國際客戶在測試領域轉向非美國競爭對手?或者您注意到您的競爭定位保持穩定?
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Hi, Priyanka. In terms of competitive impact -- the key thing in the test market is we have two major international suppliers, and then there are indigenous suppliers in China and Korea that also serve the market.
你好,Priyanka。就競爭影響而言-測試市場的關鍵在於我們有兩家主要的國際供應商,此外還有中國和韓國的本土供應商也服務於該市場。
We have not seen any competitive impact, customers that are deciding to buy from a different vendor because of the tariffs. And there are certainly -- it's a very competitive market. So we're in competing all the time. There tariffs has not been a deciding factor in any of those competitions.
我們沒有看到任何競爭影響,客戶因為關稅而決定從其他供應商購買。確實如此——這是一個競爭非常激烈的市場。所以我們一直都在競爭。在任何競爭中,關稅都不是決定性因素。
Priyanka Thapa - Analyst
Priyanka Thapa - Analyst
All right. And one follow-up. Just to put on the gross margin impact. It was noticeably strong on product mix this quarter. What measures are necessary in the long-term to achieve the sort of 60% gross margin or is the narrow range that you spoke of like somewhat below that?
好的。還有一個後續行動。只是為了說明毛利率的影響。本季的產品組合明顯強勁。從長遠來看,需要採取哪些措施才能實現 60% 左右的毛利率,或者說,要達到您所說的 60% 以下的窄幅範圍?
Sanjay Mehta - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President
Sanjay Mehta - Chief Financial Officer, Vice President
Yeah. Hi, it's Sanjay. Thanks for the question. The strength as we noted in the prepared remarks is really tied to product mix. And overall, when we make our investment decisions, we are looking to differentiate our solutions, and we have an overall business model of 59% to 60% and that's how we design our products in the markets we enter.
是的。你好,我是桑傑。謝謝你的提問。正如我們在準備好的評論中所指出的,其優勢實際上與產品組合息息相關。總體而言,當我們做出投資決策時,我們希望使我們的解決方案與眾不同,我們的整體商業模式為 59% 到 60%,這就是我們在進入的市場中設計產品的方式。
I would say, in the short run, when we talk about product mix from a tester perspective, depending on what the needs are for a particular customer, it's really configuration dependent on what goes in there. But overall, in the first half, if you take a look at our guide, the first half, we're at 59%. We do believe over the mid and long-term that we'll continue to operate our business at 59% to 60%.
我想說,從短期來看,當我們從測試人員的角度談論產品組合時,根據特定客戶的需求,配置實際上取決於其中的內容。但總體而言,在上半年,如果你看一下我們的指南,上半年我們的成功率是 59%。我們確實相信,從中長期來看,我們的業務營運率將繼續保持在 59% 至 60%。
Operator
Operator
Brian Chin, Stifel.
Brian Chin,Stifel。
Brian Chin - Analyst
Brian Chin - Analyst
Good morning. Thanks for letting us ask a few questions. Maybe one for you, Greg. When you size the VIP TAM at around $600 million in '26 and potentially $800 million in 2028, were you including SLT? Can you give us a sense, even if you don't want to necessarily reaffirm those targets at the moment, like how material to those TAM figures could SLT be?
早安.感謝您讓我們提出幾個問題。也許有一個適合你,格雷格。當您將 VIP TAM 的規模定為 2026 年約為 6 億美元,2028 年可能為 8 億美元時,您是否包括了 SLT?即使您現在不想重申這些目標,您能否讓我們了解一下,例如 SLT 對這些 TAM 數字有多重要?
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. So the numbers that we cited for the VIP TAM are around semiconductor ATE and it doesn't include SLT revenue. If the trends that I'm talking about plays out, then I don't think we've provided a formal estimate of that TAM. It's not like going to be as big.
是的。因此,我們引用的 VIP TAM 數字大約是半導體 ATE,不包括 SLT 收入。如果我所說的趨勢得以實現,那麼我認為我們還沒有對 TAM 提供正式的估計。它不會變得那麼大。
But probably in the 10% to 30% of the total TAM would be the SLT TAM for that. We'll be updating that over time, and we'll let you know probably in January of next year when we start talking about the long term. But you should look at it as impactful but not huge, not like this.
但可能在總 TAM 的 10% 到 30% 中是 SLT TAM。我們會逐步更新該訊息,並可能在明年 1 月開始討論長期計劃時通知您。但你應該把它看作是有影響的,但不是巨大的,不是這樣的。
Brian Chin - Analyst
Brian Chin - Analyst
Okay. Thanks. And then I guess broadly, are you anticipating more meaningful advanced back-end test and packaging lines to be onshored here in the states? And what time frame seems realistic? And should this coincide with the next expansion of advanced logic wafer fab capacity in the US?
好的。謝謝。然後我想,從廣義上講,您是否預計更多有意義的先進後端測試和包裝生產線將在美國境內落地?什麼樣的時間框架看起來是現實的?這是否應該與美國下一次先進邏輯晶圓廠產能擴張相吻合?
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. So the thing that we have usually said, and we still believe is that customers buy testers for the parts that they need to test. And where those parts are produced, whether it's in Taiwan or in China or in the US doesn't affect the end market demand for those chips.
是的。因此,我們通常會說,我們仍然相信的是,客戶購買測試儀是為了測試他們需要測試的零件。這些零件的生產地,無論是台灣、中國或美國,都不會影響這些晶片的終端市場需求。
So our ship to locations may change in the future if there's more on-site manufacturing in the US, but the total demand is unlikely to change in any meaningful way. There may be some additional inefficiency if yields are lower at first or if utilization is lower, but I think the onshoring of manufacturing is probably a bigger factor for front-end equipment where you need to make a large front-end investment, whether or not you have the demand for the product. For things like testers, you're only going to buy testers essentially at the point in time when you know that you have the wafer volume that's going to require the test capacity.
因此,如果美國有更多的現場製造,我們的發貨地點將來可能會發生變化,但總需求不太可能發生任何有意義的變化。如果一開始產量較低或利用率較低,可能會出現一些額外的效率低下,但我認為,對於前端設備而言,製造業的國內化可能是一個更大的因素,因為無論是否對產品有需求,都需要進行大量的前端投資。對於測試儀之類的東西,您基本上只會在知道您擁有需要測試容量的晶圓數量時才會購買測試儀。
Operator
Operator
Shane Brett, Morgan Stanley.
摩根士丹利的 Shane Brett。
Shane Brett - Analyst
Shane Brett - Analyst
Thank you for taking my question. So firstly, on memory. You spoke about DRAM dominating the memory mix in 2025, just as it did in 2024, which would imply NAND remains at very low levels. What do you think is needed from customer utilization or technology transitions to see test orders again? Thank you.
感謝您回答我的問題。首先,關於記憶。您談到 DRAM 將在 2025 年佔據記憶體組合的主導地位,就像 2024 年一樣,這意味著 NAND 仍處於非常低的水平。您認為需要從客戶利用率或技術轉型做些什麼才能再次看到測試訂單?謝謝。
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
So there are two factors that will drive a larger NAND demand. The first is really mobile phone unit volume. So if mobile phone unit volume inflects significantly, then we would see an increase in the demand. Also if the rise of AI-enabled smartphones requires a lot more local storage for model parameters, that would increase the amount of NAND per phone. So those are the volume drivers for the market.
因此有兩個因素將推動更大的NAND需求。第一個是真正的手機單元體積。因此,如果手機銷售發生顯著變化,那麼我們就會看到需求增加。此外,如果支援人工智慧的智慧型手機的興起需要更多的本地儲存來儲存模型參數,那麼每部手機的 NAND 數量就會增加。這些就是市場銷售的驅動因素。
The other important driver is interface standards. And this is true both in the mobile space and also in the compute space. In the mobile space, there are new protocols in both the iOS ecosystem and the Android ecosystem that require investment in new tester capacity to be able to verify those devices. So as new phones adopt new standards, that does drive TAM in the mobile space.
另一個重要驅動因素是介面標準。無論是在行動領域還是在運算領域,情況都是如此。在行動領域,iOS 生態系統和 Android 生態系統中都有新的協議,需要投資新的測試儀容量才能驗證這些裝置。因此,隨著新手機採用新標準,這確實推動了行動領域的 TAM。
The last factor around the NAND market is as the NAND capacity continues to increase and the need for nearline storage for AI increases, there's a potential for very high demand in the cloud compute space for storage. And that's something that we think would be a positive factor for demand for ATE. And we also think that that's an interesting market for us for our IST Group.
NAND 市場最後一個因素是,隨著 NAND 容量不斷增加以及 AI 對近線儲存的需求不斷增加,雲端運算領域對儲存的需求可能會非常高。我們認為這對於 ATE 的需求來說是一個正面因素。我們也認為,對於我們的 IST 集團來說,這是一個有趣的市場。
Shane Brett - Analyst
Shane Brett - Analyst
Got it. Thank you. And as for my follow-up, you previously mentioned that most of the VIP demand in '24 came from upgrades and if they were system sales, revenue would have doubled. Do you have a gauge on what the utilization are for your testers? And at what point would customers have to purchase new testers rather than resorting to upgrade? Thank you.
知道了。謝謝。至於我的後續問題,您之前提到,24 年的大部分 VIP 需求來自升級,如果是系統銷售,收入將會翻倍。您是否有一個衡量測試人員利用率的標準?那麼在什麼情況下客戶才需要購買新的測試器而不是升級呢?謝謝。
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
So we don't have an accurate enough measure of utilization that we can share sort of specific numbers. The trend is definitely upward. And we have already seen an increase in system orders associated with AI accelerators. So in the early parts of 2024, it was really quite dominated by the upgrade sales. As we got into the latter half of 2024, we began to see significant system orders in addition to those upgrade orders.
因此,我們沒有足夠準確的利用率衡量標準來分享具體的數字。趨勢肯定是上升的。我們已經看到與人工智慧加速器相關的系統訂單增加。因此,在 2024 年初,升級銷售確實佔據主導地位。進入 2024 年下半年,除了升級訂單外,我們開始看到大量系統訂單。
And also, the mobile business that we've transacted over Q4 and Q1 is consuming additional capacity. It's mobile of one type to mobile of another type, but it is definitely consuming idle testers. So the best I can do is give you a qualitative answer that we believe that the number of upgradable systems is much, much lower now than it was, say, six months ago.
此外,我們在第四季和第一季開展的行動業務正在消耗額外的容量。從一種類型的移動到另一種類型的移動,但這肯定會消耗空閒的測試人員。因此,我能做的最好的就是給你一個定性的答案,我們認為現在可升級系統的數量比六個月前要低得多。
Operator
Operator
Dave Duley, Steelhead Securities.
Steelhead Securities 的 Dave Duley。
Dave Duley - Analyst
Dave Duley - Analyst
Yes. Thank you for taking my question. I guess I had one clarification. As far as the HBM stack die test, just to clarify, I guess you now have all three of the HBM dyes for stack die test. Is that how we interpret this win?
是的。感謝您回答我的問題。我想我已經澄清了一點。至於 HBM 堆疊晶片測試,只是為了澄清一下,我猜您現在已經擁有用於堆疊晶片測試的所有三種 HBM 染料。這就是我們對這場勝利的解讀嗎?
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
No. We have -- that is not a correct assumption.
不。我們有——這不是一個正確的假設。
Dave Duley - Analyst
Dave Duley - Analyst
Okay. And then as far as at the Analyst Day, you demonstrated a robot that was loading and unloading hoops and I was wondering and I think you mentioned that was in production or in demonstration of one customer. Just help us understand the timing of when you expect to start to see revenue from that product? And how big a market do you think that can be?
好的。然後就分析師日而言,您演示了一個裝卸箍的機器人,我很好奇,我想您提到這是在生產中或是為一位客戶演示。請協助我們了解您預計何時開始從該產品獲得收入?您認為這個市場有多大?
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
So we already have -- we had revenue in Q1 in association with the semiconductor vertical for our robotics business. And so, those are -- and we also have semiconductor workflows similar to what we demonstrated at our Analyst Day in production at multiple sites for a different semiconductor customer.
因此,我們在第一季已經獲得了與機器人業務的半導體垂直領域相關的收入。所以,這些是 - 而且我們也有類似於我們在分析師日為不同的半導體客戶在多個地點生產時所展示的半導體工作流程。
In terms of the revenue impact in 2025, it's kind of single-digit millions of dollars, and we expect it to grow over time. But it also is a key element of a enterprise level value proposition to these customers that we are already in their production facilities to provide support for our test equipment, we understand their workflows quite well.
就 2025 年的收入影響而言,它將達到數百萬美元,並且我們預計它會隨著時間的推移而成長。但對於這些客戶來說,這也是企業級價值主張的關鍵要素,我們已經在他們的生產設施中為我們的測試設備提供支持,我們非常了解他們的工作流程。
And by being able to offer them the robotics that they need to automate some of these processes, we're able to do that quite efficiently and we're also a trusted partner. So we think that this is an important way for us to demonstrate that we are the right test and robotics partner to these customers. Thank you.
透過為他們提供實現部分流程自動化所需的機器人技術,我們能夠非常有效率地完成這項工作,並且我們也是值得信賴的合作夥伴。因此,我們認為這是我們向這些客戶證明我們是合適的測試和機器人合作夥伴的重要方式。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
[Vivek Arya], Bank of America.
[Vivek Arya],美國銀行。
Duksan Jang - Analyst
Duksan Jang - Analyst
Hi. Thank you for taking our question. This is Duksan Jang on behalf of Vivek. One on compute. I know you said you're not seeing a lot of pushouts with this end market, and I know you won't guide the second half. But should we then expect this business to generally remain on track with your expectations from the Investor Day, just given you're not seeing any pushouts? Thank you.
你好。感謝您回答我們的問題。我是代表 Vivek 的 Duksan Jang。一個在計算上。我知道您說過您沒有看到這個終端市場出現太多的推銷,我知道您不會對下半年做出指導。但是,鑑於您沒有看到任何延遲,我們是否應該預期這項業務總體上將保持與投資者日的預期一致?謝謝。
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. So we haven't seen significant pushouts in terms of affecting our Q1 and Q2 results. There is uncertainty around the second half of the year. And I'd like to emphasize that it is uncertainty. There are potential upside factors and there are potential downside factors and that's one of the reasons that we are not trying to guide the full year.
是的。因此,我們尚未看到對第一季和第二季業績產生重大影響的現象。下半年存在不確定性。我想強調的是,這是不確定性。有潛在的上行因素,也有潛在的下行因素,這也是我們不試圖指導全年業績的原因之一。
It's that we're not trying to suddenly communicate a downward message or anything. We're just hearing a lot of uncertainty from our customers about the timing of projects and the need for capacity. But yeah, the view from the Analyst Day to now is essentially the same.
我們並不是想突然傳達負面訊息或任何其他訊息。我們只是聽到客戶對專案時間和產能需求有很多不確定性。但是,從分析師日到現在的觀點基本上是一樣的。
Duksan Jang - Analyst
Duksan Jang - Analyst
Got it. And then one on robotics. Obviously, the sales side is a bit uncertain, but you've previously been assuming that this segment will outgrow your industrial peers by a significant margin. So is this still what you're expecting, that would be helpful? Thank you.
知道了。然後是關於機器人技術。顯然,銷售方面有點不確定,但您之前已經假設這一細分市場的成長幅度將遠遠超過您的工業同行。那麼這仍然是您所期望的嗎?這樣會有幫助嗎?謝謝。
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Smith - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. So the way that we are typically thinking about our robotics business is that we would want to significantly outgrow traditional industrial automation peers in this space, mainly because we're addressing an underpenetrated market, the advanced robotics segment and especially the segment of robotics where people are trying to automate processes that needs to be in the presence of people or interoperating with people.
是的。因此,我們通常思考機器人業務的方式是,我們希望在這個領域大幅超越傳統的工業自動化同行,主要是因為我們正在解決一個滲透率較低的市場,即先進的機器人領域,特別是人們試圖實現需要在人面前或與人互動的流程自動化的機器人領域。
So that's a different market, and we believe a market that is going to be accelerated by AI. We have not seen anything that changes our opinion that that's possible. But we definitely are struggling with an end market that's quite sluggish. And if people don't have money for projects, then it's difficult for you to achieve an absolute level of growth in the business.
這是一個不同的市場,我們相信這個市場將會因人工智慧而加速發展。我們還沒有看到任何可以改變我們的看法的事情。但我們確實在努力應對終端市場相當低迷的情況。如果人們沒有錢來做項目,那麼你的業務就很難實現絕對的成長。
So that's the key reason that we undertook restructuring that we did to try and bring down our breakeven. So our breakeven was at $440 million in 2024. Our breakeven for this year is down at $365 million. And that was really a reaction to understanding that we don't have control over those end market conditions.
這就是我們進行重組並試圖降低損益平衡點的主要原因。因此,2024 年我們的損益平衡點是 4.4 億美元。我們今年的損益平衡點下降至 3.65 億美元。這實際上是對我們無法控制最終市場狀況的理解的反應。
And we needed to set ourselves up so that we could maintain our critical investments and still be more careful in terms of the investments that we are making around the go-to-market and achieve the synergies that we could between these two groups.
我們需要做好準備,以便能夠維持我們的關鍵投資,並且在我們圍繞市場進入所做的投資方面更加謹慎,並實現這兩個集團之間的協同效應。
Operator
Operator
With no further questions in the queue, this will conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time and thank you for your participation.
如果沒有其他問題,今天的會議就到此結束。現在您可以斷開您的線路了,感謝您的參與。