泰瑞達 (TER) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings. Welcome to the Teradyne Q3 2023 Earnings Call and Webcast. (Operator Instructions) Please note this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to your host, Andy Blanchard. You may begin.

問候。歡迎參加泰瑞達 2023 年第三季財報電話會議及網路廣播。 （操作員說明）請注意，本次會議正在錄製中。現在我將會議交給主持人安迪布蘭查德。你可以開始了。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone, and welcome to our discussion of Teradyne's most recent financial results. I'm joined this morning by our CEO, Greg Smith; and our CFO, Sanjay Mehta. Following our opening remarks, we'll provide details of our performance for 2023's third quarter along with our outlook for the fourth quarter.

謝謝大家，大家早安，歡迎參加我們對泰瑞達最新財務表現的討論。今天早上我們的執行長格雷格史密斯 (Greg Smith) 也加入了我的行列。以及我們的財務長桑傑梅塔 (Sanjay Mehta)。在我們的開場白之後，我們將提供 2023 年第三季業績的詳細資訊以及對第四季度的展望。

The press release containing our third quarter results was issued last evening. We're providing slides on the Investor page of the website that may be helpful to you in following the discussion. Replays of this call will be available via the same page after the call ends. The matters that we discuss today will include forward-looking statements that involve risk factors that could cause Teradyne's results to differ materially from management's current expectations.

包含我們第三季業績的新聞稿於昨晚發布。我們在網站的投資者頁面上提供幻燈片，可能對您後續討論有所幫助。通話結束後，可以透過同一頁面重播此通話。我們今天討論的事項將包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述涉及可能導致泰瑞達的業績與管理層當前預期存在重大差異的風險因素。

We encourage you to review the safe harbor statement contained in the earnings release as well as our most recent SEC filings. Additionally, those forward-looking statements are made as of today, and we take no obligation to update them as a result of developments occurring after this call.

我們鼓勵您查看收益報告中包含的安全港聲明以及我們最近向 SEC 提交的文件。此外，這些前瞻性陳述是截至今天作出的，我們沒有義務因本次電話會議後發生的事態發展而更新這些陳述。

During today's call, we'll make reference to non-GAAP financial measures. We've posted additional information concerning these non-GAAP financial measures, including reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure where available on the Investor page of our website. Looking ahead, between now and our next earnings call, Teradyne expects to participate in technology or industrial-focused investor conferences hosted by Baird, UBS and Wolfe Research.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將參考非公認會計準則財務指標。我們已經發布了有關這些非 GAAP 財務指標的更多信息，包括與我們網站投資者頁面上最直接可比的 GAAP 財務指標的調整。展望未來，從現在到我們的下一次財報電話會議，泰瑞達預計將參加由貝爾德(Baird)、瑞銀(UBS) 和沃爾夫研究(Wolfe Research) 主辦的以技術或工業為重點的投資者會議。

Now let's get on with the rest of the agenda. First, Greg will comment on our recent results and the market conditions as we enter the fourth quarter. Sanjay will then offer more details on our quarterly results, along with our guidance for the fourth quarter. We'll then answer your questions, and this call is scheduled for 1 hour. Greg?

現在讓我們繼續議程的其餘部分。首先，格雷格將評論我們最近的業績和進入第四季時的市場狀況。然後，桑傑將提供有關我們季度業績的更多詳細資訊以及我們對第四季度的指導。然後我們將回答您的問題，本次通話預計持續 1 小時。格雷格？

Thanks, Andy, and good morning, everyone. Today, I will summarize our Q3 results, describe the current business conditions and provide some insight on how we're thinking about 2024 and beyond. Sanjay will then provide the financial details on Q3, our outlook for Q4 and offer some comments on the modeling next year.

謝謝安迪，大家早安。今天，我將總結我們第三季的業績，描述當前的業務狀況，並提供一些關於我們如何看待 2024 年及以後的見解。然後，Sanjay 將提供第三季的財務詳細資訊、我們對第四季度的展望，並對明年的模型提出一些評論。

Third quarter sales and earnings were at the high end of our guidance range as robotics sales came in above plan, and we cleared some supply constraints and tests. The second half of 2023 is playing out as we described in July. We expect to close out the year with strong robotic shipments amplified by new product shipments at UR and seasonally softer test shipments.

由於機器人銷售超出計劃，並且我們清除了一些供應限制和測試，因此第三季的銷售額和收益處於我們指導範圍的高端。正如我們在 7 月所描述的那樣，2023 年下半年即將到來。我們預計，機器人出貨量將因 UR 的新產品出貨量和季節性疲軟的測試出貨量而放大，以強勁的機器人出貨量結束今年。

In semiconductor test, the mobility correction cycle persists and shipments remain well below historic levels, while our automotive test shipments remain high in Q3. Memory test shipments in Q3 were down sequentially due to the timing of shipments, but demand remains strong. LPDDR5 and HBM, both of which require higher speed testers drove the results.

在半導體測試中，遷移率修正週期持續存在，出貨量仍遠低於歷史水平，而我們的汽車測試出貨量在第三季仍然很高。由於出貨時間的原因，第三季記憶體測試出貨量較上季下降，但需求依然強勁。 LPDDR5 和 HBM 都需要更高速度的測試儀來推動結果。

In Wireless, demand remained muted in the quarter given the weak smartphone market and lack of new wireless standards this year. In System Test, defense and aerospace and storage test groups were on plan, while production board test softened in the quarter. Robotics demand has stabilized. In the first half of 2023, demand was quite low down 21% versus the first half of 2022.

在無線領域，由於智慧型手機市場疲軟且今年缺乏新的無線標準，本季需求仍然低迷。在系統測試中，國防、航空航天和儲存測試組已按計劃進行，而生產板測試在本季度有所放緩。機器人需求已經穩定。 2023 年上半年，需求相當低，與 2022 年上半年相比下降了 21%。

In Q3, demand strengthened with revenue nearly at 2022 levels and up 20% from Q2. Our shipments have stepped up as we execute an aggressive ramp of the new UR20 product and PMI seems to have stabilized a bit. Looking at the full year of 2023, our estimates of the SOC test market size are unchanged at $3.7 billion to $4.1 billion, down about 15% at the midpoint from last year.

第三季度，需求增強，營收接近 2022 年水平，較第二季度成長 20%。隨著新 UR20 產品的積極增加，我們的出貨量有所增加，而且 PMI 似乎已經穩定了一些。綜觀 2023 年全年，我們對 SOC 測試市場規模的預估維持在 37 億至 41 億美元不變，較去年中位數下降約 15%。

The weakest segment of SOC is mobility, down about 40% from 2022 on slower complexity growth in smartphone semiconductors and year-on decline in units. The compute Automotive and Industrial analog segments of the market will finish the year at similar levels to 2022. In Memory Test, we expect the market will be at the low end of the $900 million to $1 billion range, also unchanged from our July view.

SOC 最薄弱的部分是移動性，由於智慧型手機半導體的複雜性增長放緩以及數量同比下降，移動性比 2022 年下降了約 40%。計算汽車和工業模擬市場今年將達到與 2022 年類似的水平。在記憶體測試中，我們預計市場將處於 9 億至 10 億美元範圍的低端，這與我們 7 月的觀點相同。

The demand for high-speed DRAM test remains high as we close out 2023, which will help us pick up a few points of memory share for the full year. Teradyne's System Test group will finish 2023 down more than 20% from 2022. Within this group, we expect Defense and Aerospace will grow 10% year-on-year as global defense spending ticked up. The other segments of the business were negatively impacted by oversupply in the HDD market and mobility weakness.

隨著 2023 年的結束，對高速 DRAM 測試的需求仍然很高，這將幫助我們在全年記憶體份額中獲得幾個百分點。泰瑞達的系統測試小組到 2023 年將比 2022 年下降超過 20%。在該小組中，我們預計隨著全球國防支出的增加，國防和航空航太將年增 10%。該業務的其他部門受到硬碟市場供應過剩和移動性疲軟的負面影響。

Shifting now to Robotics. The macro environment for industry is incrementally better than last quarter with global PMI stable or improving slightly. The highlight of the quarter was a well-executed volume ramp of our UR20 collaborative robot. We delivered more than 300 units in Q3, and we expect to deliver a multiple of that in Q4. The UR20 extends UR's ease of use and quick ROI to higher payload and longer reach applications, expanding the market in many segments.

現在轉向機器人技術。工業宏觀環境比上季逐步好轉，全球PMI穩定或小幅改善。本季的亮點是我們的 UR20 協作機器人執行良好的產量提升。我們在第三季交付了 300 多台，預計第四季將交付數倍。 UR20 將 UR 的易用性和快速投資回報率擴展到更高的有效負載和更長距離的應用，從而擴大了許多細分市場的市場。

The strongest segments for UR20 so far are welding and palletizing. The distribution channel transformation that we described in past calls is also making steady progress. Complementing our existing distribution channel with direct coverage of large accounts and adding OEM partners is a long-term project, and we're beginning to see positive benefits.

到目前為止，UR20 最強大的部分是焊接和堆疊。我們在過去的電話中描述的分銷管道轉型也在穩步推進。透過直接覆蓋大客戶和增加 OEM 合作夥伴來補充我們現有的分銷管道是一個長期項目，我們已經開始看到積極的好處。

For example, in the OEM space, we have added 48 new OEM partners so far in 2023, bringing the total to 144. And we have seen direct OEM orders grow nearly 20%, driven by the high demand from the palletizing market. At MiR, our account strategy continues to deliver with our top 10 customers expanding their collective installed base by over 15% year-to-date. A rate that's more than 50% greater than the overall installed base growth.

例如，在 OEM 領域，截至 2023 年，我們已新增 48 個 OEM 合作夥伴，總數達到 144 個。在碼垛市場的高需求推動下，直接 OEM 訂單增長了近 20%。在 MiR，我們的客戶策略繼續發揮作用，我們的前 10 位客戶今年迄今的整體安裝基礎擴大了 15% 以上。此成長率比整體安裝基數成長率高出 50% 以上。

Shifting to the future, I'd like to describe our current thinking about 2024. Please bear in mind that it is still too early and visibility is too limited to be certain about what will happen next year. However, there are some longer-term trends that we expect to play out. As we've previously discussed, we expect the SOC market and our revenue to grow from 2023 on broader 3-nanometer adoption in the mobility space, driving market growth and continued strength in the compute market.

展望未來，我想描述我們目前對 2024 年的想法。請記住，現在還為時過早，可見性太有限，無法確定明年會發生什麼。然而，我們預計會出現一些長期趨勢。正如我們之前所討論的，我們預計 SOC 市場和我們的收入將從 2023 年開始隨著行動領域更廣泛的 3 奈米採用而成長，從而推動市場成長和計算市場的持續強勁。

The real question is the magnitude of the mobility recovery, which depends on smartphone unit growth, complexity growth and how quickly the industry can consume idle test capacity. For reference, we estimate subcon tester utilization is still low, up only marginally from our July estimate and well below the typical Q2 to Q3 increase. The automotive test market has been sustaining at a higher level in 2023 than we originally expected. It appears that channel inventories in Automotive are stabilizing, and we have seen some spot weakness in the market.

真正的問題是行動復甦的幅度，這取決於智慧型手機銷售的成長、複雜性的成長以及產業消耗閒置測試能力的速度。作為參考，我們估計分包測試儀利用率仍然較低，僅比我們 7 月的估計略有上升，遠低於第二季到第三季的典型增幅。 2023年汽車測試市場一直維持在比我們最初預期更高的水平。汽車領域的通路庫存似乎正在穩定，我們已經看到市場出現一些現貨疲軟。

We aren't expecting a significant change in the full year market size next year as unit forecasts and semiconductor attach rates driven by the crossover from internal combustion to EV remain bullish. The technology buys that have supported the memory TAM in 2023 should continue into next year, and we expect the memory market to grow as HBM, DDR5 and LPDDR5 penetration expands to support AI and computing growth.

我們預計明年全年市場規模不會發生重大變化，因為從內燃機到電動車的交叉驅動的單位預測和半導體附加率仍然看漲。支援 2023 年記憶體 TAM 的技術購買應該會持續到明年，我們預計記憶體市場將隨著 HBM、DDR5 和 LPDDR5 滲透率的擴大而成長，以支援人工智慧和運算的成長。

In flash, as protocol interface speeds continue to increase, we expect flash package test demand to grow as well. Overall, we expect the total ATE TAM to be up modestly from this year, and the key factor is the strength of recovery in mobile. Growth in our wireless business, LitePoint will be strongly linked to handset growth, a recovery in the PC market and the start of the rollout of WiFi 7. The supply-demand imbalance in HDD is likely to persist through 2024, and we expect HDD test to remain [leap].

在快閃記憶體中，隨著協定介面速度不斷提高，我們預期快閃記憶體封裝測試需求也會成長。總體而言，我們預計 ATE TAM 總額將比今年小幅成長，關鍵因素是行動領域的復甦力度。 LitePoint 無線業務的成長將與手機成長、PC 市場復甦以及 WiFi 7 的開始推出密切相關。HDD 的供需失衡可能會持續到 2024 年，我們預計 HDD 測試保持[跳躍]。

System-level test will depend largely on smartphone unit growth in the near term while we expect our defense and aerospace business to grow in 2024 on increased defense investments worldwide. In robotics, we're finishing 2023 on a positive note in a tough market with Q4 revenues up about 10% year-on-year on the strength of the new UR20 product introduction. That performance reinforces our optimism in robotics. We see robotics as a marathon, not a sprint. We are serving in an emerging market of $2 billion this year that we expect to grow to tens of billions of dollars per year in the future.

系統級測試將在很大程度上取決於近期智慧型手機銷量的成長，而我們預計我們的國防和航空航太業務將在 2024 年隨著全球國防投資的增加而成長。在機器人領域，我們在嚴峻的市場中以積極的姿態結束了 2023 年，得益於新 UR20 產品的推出，第四季度收入同比增長約 10%。這一表現增強了我們對機器人技術的樂觀態度。我們將機器人視為一場馬拉松，而不是短跑。我們今年服務於價值 20 億美元的新興市場，預計未來每年將成長到數百億美元。

Our operating model for robotics is built for that marathon with a strategy that prioritizes product and support investments that deliver value to customers now. We are counting on building relationships with those paying customers to help guide our ongoing investments to meet their evolving needs for the future. The key to this strategy is driving towards our model of 5% to 15% profit from our robotics portfolio. While we will fall short of this objective in 2023, it remains a key operating metric for 2024.

我們的機器人營運模式是為這場馬拉鬆而建構的，其策略優先考慮現在為客戶提供價值的產品和支援投資。我們指望與那些付費客戶建立關係，以幫助指導我們正在進行的投資，以滿足他們未來不斷變化的需求。這項策略的關鍵是推動我們的機器人產品組合 5% 至 15% 利潤的模式。雖然我們在 2023 年將無法實現這一目標，但它仍然是 2024 年的關鍵營運指標。

We do this to ensure that we remain focused on our customers' most important automation priorities while we've grown the business. Rolling it all up, 2024 looks to be stronger than 2023. With all of the uncertainty around chip inventories, low utilization rates and macroeconomic worries. I'd call it incrementally stronger, but we'll get a better view over the next quarter or so.

我們這樣做是為了確保在發展業務的同時，我們仍然專注於客戶最重要的自動化優先事項。總而言之，2024 年看起來會比 2023 年更強勁。考慮到晶片庫存、低利用率和宏觀經濟擔憂等所有不確定性。我認為它會逐漸增強，但我們將在下個季度左右得到更好的看法。

We're also assuming a quarterly revenue profile in 2024, similar to 2023, with Q1 as the low point and then growth from there. While early, we're modeling Q1 sales to be similar to Q1 '23. As we finish the year, I'm encouraged by indications that our largest market, Semi Test, appears to have troughed in 2023 at a level that delivers an operating profit of 20% for the total company.

我們也假設 2024 年的季度營收狀況與 2023 年類似，第一季為最低點，然後從那裡開始成長。雖然還很早，但我們對第一季的銷售額進行了建模，使其與 23 年第一季相似。當我們結束這一年時，有跡象表明我們最大的市場 Semi Test 似乎在 2023 年觸底，為整個公司帶來 20% 的營業利潤，這讓我感到鼓舞。

We are confident about the long-term growth outlook of the semiconductor market as the substantial fab equipment investments made in the recent past have not yet seen matching test investments. Also, we see consistent investment in tooling to enable continued process development, whether it is building a family of process nodes at 3-nanometer or enabling gate all around and 2-nanometer technologies. While the timing of test investments will be driven by end market chip demand and complexity growth, we are confident that this investment will happen.

我們對半導體市場的長期成長前景充滿信心，因為最近進行的大量晶圓廠設備投資尚未看到匹配的測試投資。此外，我們還看到對工具的持續投資，以實現持續的製程開發，無論是建構 3 奈米製程節點系列還是支援全柵極和 2 奈米技術。雖然測試投資的時機將取決於終端市場晶片需求和複雜性成長，但我們相信這項投資將會發生。

To be clear, our customers are still cautious about their near-term demand, and we're reflecting that caution in our initial outlook for next year. But long term, there is significant upside potential. In Robotics, we have a pipeline of new products, new applications and distribution changes that are now beginning to yield. At the end of the day, the global population trends are inarguable.

需要明確的是，我們的客戶對其近期需求仍然持謹慎態度，我們在明年的初步展望中也反映了這種謹慎態度。但從長遠來看，還有巨大的上升潛力。在機器人領域，我們擁有一系列新產品、新應用和分銷變革，現已開始產生成效。歸根究底，全球人口趨勢是無可爭議的。

The long-term demand for advanced automation must grow to deal with the increasing shortage of manufacturing workers, that coupled with market conditions that favor low-cost, short ROI automation investments and our team's growing execution skill. I expect renewed growth in robotics in 2024 as well. With that, I'll turn things over to Sanjay for the financial details. Sanjay?

對先進自動化的長期需求必須成長，以應對製造工人日益短缺的問題，再加上有利於低成本、短期投資回報率自動化投資的市場條件以及我們團隊不斷增長的執行技能。我預計 2024 年機器人技術也會出現新的成長。這樣，我會將事情交給 Sanjay 了解財務細節。桑傑？

Thank you, Greg. Good morning, everyone. Today, I'll cover the financial summary of Q3, provide our Q4 outlook and update you on our supply chain and resiliency progress. Now Q3. Third quarter sales were $704 million with non-GAAP EPS of $0.80, both at the high end of our guidance as robotics delivered above plan and some supply constraints eased in test.

謝謝你，格雷格。大家，早安。今天，我將介紹第三季的財務摘要，提供我們第四季的展望，並向您介紹我們的供應鏈和彈性進展的最新情況。現在第三季。第三季銷售額為 7.04 億美元，非 GAAP 每股收益為 0.80 美元，均處於我們指導的高端，因為機器人交付高於計劃，並且測試中一些供應限制有所緩解。

Non-GAAP gross margins were 56.6%, in line with our guidance. Non-GAAP operating expenses were $243 million, down about 3% from the second quarter on spending controls and lower variable compensation. Non-GAAP operating profit rate was 22%. We had two 10% customers in the quarter. The tax rate, excluding discrete items for the quarter was 14.5% on a GAAP basis and 15.7% on a non-GAAP basis.

非 GAAP 毛利率為 56.6%，符合我們的指引。由於支出控制和可變薪酬降低，非公認會計原則營運支出為 2.43 億美元，較第二季下降約 3%。非 GAAP 營業利益率為 22%。本季我們有兩個 10% 的客戶。不包括離散項目的本季稅率（以 GAAP 計算）為 14.5%，以非 GAAP 計算為 15.7%。

Semi Test revenue for the quarter was $498 million with SOC revenue contributing $404 million and memory $94 million. As noted earlier, we continue to see strength in SOC concentrated in auto end market and image sensor parts of our business in the quarter. Memory sales continue to be weighted towards technology retooling for higher-speed protocol flash for smartphones, DDR5 and HBM DRAM for server applications.

該季度半測試收入為 4.98 億美元，其中 SOC 收入貢獻 4.04 億美元，記憶體貢獻 9,400 萬美元。如前所述，本季我們繼續看到 SOC 的優勢集中在汽車終端市場和我們業務的影像感測器部分。記憶體銷售繼續偏重於智慧型手機的高速協定快閃記憶體、伺服器應用的 DDR5 和 HBM DRAM 的技術重組。

System Test Group revenue was $83 million with $38 million in storage test as SLT and HDD production demand remains [muted]. In Wireless Test, revenue was $37 million in Q3, with low demand from both PC and smartphone end markets. We expect this market trend to continue over the next several quarters. Now to Robotics. Revenue in Q3 was $86 million with UR contributing $71 million and MiR $15 million, which was above plan, as Greg noted.

由於 SLT 和 HDD 生產需求仍[低迷]，系統測試集團收入為 8,300 萬美元，其中儲存測試收入為 3,800 萬美元。在無線測試方面，第三季營收為 3,700 萬美元，PC 和智慧型手機終端市場的需求較低。我們預計這種市場趨勢將在未來幾季持續下去。現在談談機器人。正如 Greg 指出的那樣，第三季的收入為 8,600 萬美元，其中 UR 貢獻了 7,100 萬美元，MiR 貢獻了 1,500 萬美元，這超出了計劃。

Shifting back to the company level financials. Our free cash flow was $140 million in the quarter, and we returned 97% to shareholders. We repurchased $119 million of shares in the quarter, paid $17 million in dividends and settled $9 million of debt. We have the final $24 million of convertible debt, which will be repaid in the fourth quarter. We ended the quarter with $820 million in cash and marketable securities.

回到公司層面的財務狀況。本季我們的自由現金流為 1.4 億美元，我們向股東返還了 97%。我們在本季回購了 1.19 億美元的股票，支付了 1,700 萬美元的股息，並償還了 900 萬美元的債務。我們還有最後 2,400 萬美元的可轉換債務，將在第四季償還。本季結束時，我們擁有 8.2 億美元的現金和有價證券。

Now to our outlook for Q4. Q4 sales are expected to be between $640 million and $700 million, with non-GAAP EPS in a range of $0.61 to $0.81 on 162 million diluted shares. Fourth quarter guidance excludes the amortization of acquired intangibles, restructuring and other charges. This outlook is in line with our July view at the company level for the second half. Our revenue guide for Q4 has no material supply constraints. As supply has become more in line with demand, we are now back to including normal supply issues in the revenue range.

現在我們對第四季的展望。預計第四季銷售額將在 6.4 億美元至 7 億美元之間，1.62 億股稀釋後的非 GAAP 每股收益將在 0.61 美元至 0.81 美元之間。第四季指引不包括收購無形資產的攤銷、重組及其他費用。這一前景與我們 7 月對下半年公司層面的看法一致。我們第四季的收入指南沒有材料供應限制。隨著供應變得更加符合需求，我們現在又將正常供應問題納入收入範圍。

As a result of supply and demand coming into balance, our lead times continue to improve. This enables customers to place orders more in line with their incremental production requirements. In Q4, there is a component of this behavior. But we expect to see more book ship variability in Q1 as lead times continue to be reduced.

由於供需平衡，我們的交貨時間持續改善。這使客戶能夠更符合其增量生產需求下訂單。在第四季度，存在這種行為的一個組成部分。但我們預計，隨著交貨時間持續縮短，第一季的圖書運輸變化將會更大。

Fourth quarter gross margins are estimated at 56% to 57%, OpEx is expected to run at 35% to 38% of fourth quarter sales in line with Q3. Non-GAAP operating profit rate at the midpoint of our fourth quarter guidance is 20%. A little more color on gross margins and OpEx profile for the second half. Recall, our long-term model has gross margins at 59% to 60%. In 2021 and 2022, we were in our model range with margins of 59.6% and 59.2%, respectively.

第四季毛利率預計為 56% 至 57%，營運支出預計佔第四季銷售額的 35% 至 38%，與第三季持平。我們第四季指引中位數的非公認會計準則營業利潤率為 20%。下半年的毛利率和營運支出概況有更多的色彩。回想一下，我們的長期模型的毛利率為 59% 至 60%。 2021 年和 2022 年，我們的模型範圍內的利潤率分別為 59.6% 和 59.2%。

In our July call, we noted the gross margin profile by quarter, which show lower gross margins in Q3 and Q4 due to the timing of spending to strengthen our supply chain, but that we expected our full year 2023 gross margins in the 57% to 58% range. That outlook is unchanged. Turning to resiliency spending. In operations, manufacturing spend will continue in Q4, but the spend associated with enabling our new factories to be qualified and producing testers is behind us.

在7 月的電話會議中，我們注意到按季度的毛利率概況，由於加強供應鏈的支出時機，第三季和第四季的毛利率較低，但我們預計2023 年全年毛利率將達到57% 58%範圍。這前景沒有改變。轉向彈性支出。在營運方面，製造支出將在第四季度繼續，但與使我們的新工廠合格和生產測試儀相關的支出已經過去。

Packing up inventory and some capital equipment from old locations is what is left to do for our manufacturing in Q4. In short, we have successfully completed our objectives of moving many product lines to new locations. I would like to thank our internal teams and our partners for their tireless effort in derisking our supply chain. Some component qualification will continue in 2024 but the majority of the test operational resiliency spending is behind us.

第四季我們的製造剩下要做的就是從舊地點收拾庫存和一些資本設備。簡而言之，我們已經成功完成了將許多產品線轉移到新地點的目標。我要感謝我們的內部團隊和合作夥伴為降低供應鏈風險所做的不懈努力。一些組件資格認證將在 2024 年繼續進行，但大部分測試營運彈性支出已經過去。

Regarding OpEx. As noted, our full year spend will be flat to slightly down versus 2022 spend levels. This is due to both spending controls and lower variable compensation. Recall, our operating model as a variable component for operating expenses, where the model flexes compensation expense with revenue and profits as both are lower than 2022 levels, we're spending less than 2023. As revenues are expected to grow in 2024 in future years, that variable compensation component will also grow.

關於營運支出。如前所述，我們的全年支出將與 2022 年支出水準持平或略有下降。這是由於支出控制和較低的可變薪酬所致。回想一下，我們的營運模式是營運支出的可變組成部分，該模型根據收入和利潤調整薪資支出，因為兩者都低於2022 年的水平，因此我們的支出低於2023 年。由於未來幾年收入預計將在2024 年成長，可變補償部分也將成長。

For the full year 2023, at the midpoint of our guidance, revenue will be slightly below $2.7 billion with non-GAAP EPS of $2.85 and operating profit of 20%. Gross margin for the full year should be above 57.5%. Our GAAP and non-GAAP tax rates are forecasted to be 15.75% and 16.5%, respectively, in 2023. Looking at 2024 business levels, Greg noted we expected revenue growth in 2024. How much growth is tough to call at this point? Starting the year with Q1 '24 revenues, similar to Q1 '23 levels, Q1 is expected to have unfavorable product mix yielding lower gross margins in Q4 '23.

2023 年全年，按照我們指引的中點，營收將略低於 27 億美元，非 GAAP 每股收益為 2.85 美元，營業利潤為 20%。全年毛利率應在57.5%以上。 2023 年，我們的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 稅率預計分別為 15.75% 和 16.5%。展望 2024 年的業務水平，Greg 指出，我們預計 2024 年收入將增長。目前很難預測增長多少？從今年開始，24 年第 1 季的營收與 23 年第 1 季的水平相似，預計第 1 季的產品組合不利，導致 23 年第 4 季的毛利率較低。

For the full year '24, we expect gross margins to be better than '23 on higher volume and lower resiliency spending. Summing up, our second half is playing out as expected with the highlight being strong execution by our UR team as they ramp UR20 to meet high customer demand. For the full year, while the end markets have softened in 2023, our company operating model has flexed costs down to support profitability while enabling our R&D and go-to-market investments to support our long-term growth objectives. We've transformed our supply chain to reduce geographic risk and strengthened our operations capacity.

對於 24 年全年，我們預計毛利率將好於 23 年，因為銷售量增加且彈性支出較低。總而言之，我們的下半年正在按預期進行，亮點是我們的 UR 團隊在提高 UR20 以滿足高客戶需求時的強大執行力。就全年而言，雖然終端市場在 2023 年有所疲軟，但我們公司的營運模式已降低成本以支持獲利能力，同時使我們的研發和上市投資能夠支持我們的長期成長目標。我們對供應鏈進行了轉型，以降低地理風險並增強了我們的營運能力。

From a shareholder return perspective, year-to-date, we've returned 181% of our free cash flow to owners. Our cash position and strength in our balance sheet enables us to continue to invest in strategic organic initiatives and has the firepower to support a wide range of M&A options for inorganic growth in the future.

從股東回報的角度來看，今年迄今為止，我們已將 181% 的自由現金流返還給股東。我們的現金狀況和資產負債表實力使我們能夠繼續投資策略性有機舉措，並有能力支持未來無機成長的各種併購選擇。

With that, I'll turn the call back to Andy. Andy?

說完，我會把電話轉回給安迪。安迪？

Thanks, Sanjay. Operator, we'd now like to take some questions. And as a reminder, please limit yourself to one question and a follow-up.

謝謝，桑傑。接線員，我們現在想回答一些問題。提醒一下，請將自己限制在一個問題和一個後續問題上。

Thank you. At this time, we will be conducting a question and answer session. (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Tim Arcuri with UBS.

謝謝。此時，我們將進行問答環節。 （操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 UBS 的 Tim Arcuri 線路。

Greg, you had talked about there being some critical points where utilization has to get to, to then see mobility start to grow again. So how do you think about where we are sort of in aggregate? I know your large customer has their own dynamics. But how do you think about where we are right now in terms of utilization versus where you think we have to get until -- before the nonlarge customers would come back and start to buy again?

格雷格，您曾談到，利用率必須達到一些關鍵點，然後才能看到流動性再次開始成長。那麼您如何看待我們的整體情況？我知道你們的大客戶有自己的動態。但是，您如何看待我們現在在利用率方面的情況以及您認為我們必須達到的水平（在非大客戶回來並開始再次購買之前）？

Yes. That's -- thanks, Tim. So the -- right now, our -- I'm hesitant to give you exact numbers because our measurements of utilization are indirect. So we tend to look more at the changes from quarter-to-quarter than the absolute level. But they are significantly lower than what we've seen for people to want to buy.

是的。那是——謝謝，提姆。所以，現在，我們的——我不太願意給你確切的數字，因為我們對利用率的測量是間接的。因此，我們傾向於更多地關注季度與季度之間的變化，而不是絕對水準。但它們明顯低於我們所看到的人們想要購買的價格。

So -- and there's also a big difference between our IDM customers and our OSAT customers. So our IDM customer utilization by our measurements are up in the low 80s, and that's usually at a high enough level that trigger buys. Our OSAT customers are like 20 points lower, there's usually a few points of inflection, like an increase in utilization from Q2 to Q3, we saw very little in our data this time. And so it's still on the order of 20 points lower than what we're seeing inside of IDMs.

因此，我們的 IDM 客戶和 OSAT 客戶之間也存在很大差異。因此，根據我們的測量，我們的 IDM 客戶利用率上升到了 80 左右，而且通常處於足夠高的水平，足以觸發購買。我們的 OSAT 客戶大約低了 20 個點，通常有幾個拐點，例如利用率從第二季到第三季的增加，這次我們在數據中看到的很少。因此，它仍然比我們在 IDM 內部看到的低 20 個點。

So I think there's a -- there's a pretty big hill to climb in terms of utilization before that would trigger buys from OSATs to support the mobile space.

因此，我認為在利用率方面還有一個相當大的山峰需要攀登，然後才會觸發 OSAT 的購買來支援移動領域。

And then as you think about your -- I mean I think a lot depends on your large customer next year. But as you think about you read some of the plans in terms of what they're planning to do and having a new chips throughout the entire product portfolio going from N3B to N3E, through the entire product portfolio, you do get 30% more transistor density.

然後當你想到你的——我的意思是我認為這很大程度取決於你明年的大客戶。但是，當您考慮閱讀一些計劃時，他們計劃做什麼，並在從 N3B 到 N3E 的整個產品組合中使用新晶片，在整個產品組合中，您確實會獲得多 30% 的晶體管密度。

So it depends on the die size, obviously, but it does seem like there's going to be a fairly solid increase in transistors across the entire portfolio next year. So maybe can you just -- I'm not asking you to predict what happens with that large customer, but can you talk about sort of the things that you're watching to sort of determine whether you think that next year could be a good year for that customer or not?

因此，顯然，這取決於晶片尺寸，但明年整個產品組合中的晶體管似乎確實會出現相當穩定的增長。所以也許你可以 - 我不是要求你預測那個大客戶會發生什麼，但你能談談你正在觀察的一些事情，以確定你是否認為明年會是一個好的一年是否為該客戶提供一年？

Sure. So yes, I'm -- I think we're both sort of working off of the same source data when it comes to like reading the tea leaves about this large customer. We don't really know what their product plans are. The things that we are watching for are how quickly 3-nanometer goes into their high-performance computing process -- products that the more of that product line that's on 3-nanometer, the more complexity there will be, and that's a tailwind towards loading.

當然。所以，是的，我認為，當談到喜歡閱讀有關這個大客戶的茶葉時，我們都在使用相同的來源數據。我們真的不知道他們的產品計劃是什麼。我們正在關注的是 3 奈米技術進入高效能運算流程的速度有多快——產品線中採用 3 奈米技術的產品越多，複雜性就越高，這對載入來說是有利的。

The next is what's the relationship between -- like how do they use the next-generation 3-nanometer process? Do they use that to try to decrease die size and attack cost? Or do they use that to add features to sort of keep die size the same and a lot of complexity. So we're watching very closely to see how that plays out. And then the last is if there's any change to the strategy of using the [N-1] processor in the lower-end phone product line. If that changes, that compresses the period of time that they have to build the up chips, and that helps to drive peak loading.

接下來是它們之間的關係是什麼——例如他們如何使用下一代3奈米製程？他們是否用它來嘗試縮小晶片尺寸和攻擊成本？或者他們是否使用它來添加功能以保持晶片尺寸相同並提高複雜性。因此，我們正在密切關注，看看結果如何。最後是低階手機產品線使用[N-1]處理器的策略是否會改變。如果這種情況發生變化，就會壓縮他們建構晶片的時間，這有助於推動尖峰負載。

So we don't have information about that. We are -- so we're being pretty cautious in terms of how we model that going into the future. But there are -- like as you point out, there are a number of things that could drive some upside.

所以我們沒有這方面的資訊。我們是——所以我們在如何為未來建模方面非常謹慎。但正如您所指出的，有很多因素可以帶來一些好處。

And our next question comes from the line of Krish Sankar with TD Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Krish Sankar 和 TD Cowen 的對話。

I turn then to -- first one is on next year outlook to follow up on an earlier question. Historically, your big customers come around April or May time frame to confirm kind of like a test outlook for the year. Was it a similar -- and it seems like that was a different pattern this year. Do you expect to go back to regular patterns next year? Or is it still too early to commit this call? And I have a follow-up.

然後我轉向——第一個是明年的展望，以跟進先前的問題。從歷史上看，您的大客戶會在四月或五月左右的時間範圍內進行確認，就像是對今年的測試前景一樣。是不是很相似——今年似乎是不同的模式。您預計明年會恢復正常模式嗎？或者現在做出這個決定還為時過早嗎？我有一個後續行動。

So I think that they actually followed a familiar pattern this year. But what ended up happening in April, May was that they ended up meeting not a lot of additional capacity. So I think we've pointed out in prior calls that we expect that major customer to be less than 10% customer in 2023. But we haven't seen any significant change in the timing.

所以我認為他們今年實際上遵循了熟悉的模式。但最終在四月、五月發生的情況是，他們最終沒有滿足太多額外的產能。因此，我認為我們在先前的電話會議中已經指出，我們預計到 2023 年，主要客戶的比例將低於 10%。但我們沒有看到時間安排有任何重大變化。

The thing that we said in the prior call about this was we didn't see -- like we didn't have demand confirmed in that April, May time frame, but there was still some uncertainty about what their peak loading might be and whether they need additional capacity. And that played out the way it played out. So I think they're still on basically the same schedule.

我們在之前的電話會議中說過，我們沒有看到——就像我們在四月、五月的時間範圍內沒有確認需求一樣，但他們的峰值負載可能是多少以及是否存在仍然存在一些不確定性他們需要額外的能力。結果就這樣發生了。所以我認為他們的時間表仍然基本上相同。

Got it. Very helpful. And then a quick follow-up on the auto market. You said that it's been strong. We've seen some spot weakness, but still expected to grow or be strong in calendar '24. Is that purely because you see increase in semi content that is going to offset unit weakness? Is there anything else you're seeing in autos?

知道了。很有幫助。然後是對汽車市場的快速跟進。你說它很強大。我們已經看到了一些現貨疲軟，但仍預計在 24 年曆中會成長或強勁。這純粹是因為您看到半成品含量的增加將抵消單位的疲軟嗎？您在汽車中還看過什麼嗎？

No. So I think that what we're seeing in automotive is most of the players in that space, they're large IDMs and they all have a significant capacity expansion projects in process. And they've -- and with the lead times that they have for front-end equipment and where our lead times were running, say, even 6 months ago, they needed to place orders way in advance.

不。所以我認為我們在汽車領域看到的是該領域的大多數參與者，他們都是大型 IDM，並且都有正在進行中的重大產能擴張項目。他們——根據他們前端設備的交貨時間以及我們的交貨時間，比如說，甚至在 6 個月前，他們需要提前下訂單。

And as they're building out that capacity, they need to phase their deliveries so that it lines up with their commissioning. And -- so we've seen some rescheduling, but we haven't seen anything that we would consider to be a significant signal of demand change.

當他們建立這種能力時，他們需要分階段交付，以便與調試保持一致。而且——所以我們看到了一些重新安排，但我們還沒有看到任何我們認為是需求變化的重要訊號。

Our next question comes from the line of Mehdi Hosseini with SIG.

我們的下一個問題來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

Yes, I have 2 follow-up. And I'm not going to ask you about how to forecast iPhone 16 builds for next year. But what I wanted to learn is, actually, I want to get an update on the compute end market. We all hear of more of an ASIC design ramping hyperscalers ramping their own ASIC solution. By now, everyone has seen, grab it on and keeping you in the headline. And in that context, what's the update on Paradigm's content market share? And I have a follow-up.

是的，我有 2 個後續行動。我不會問你如何預測明年 iPhone 16 的生產情況。但實際上，我想了解的是，我想了解計算終端市場的最新情況。我們都聽說過越來越多的 ASIC 設計加速超大規模廠商推出自己的 ASIC 解決方案。到目前為止，每個人都已經看到了，抓住它並讓您成為頭條新聞。在這種背景下，Paradigm 的內容市佔率有何最新動態？我有一個後續行動。

Okay. So right now, the computing market, if you like, just to sort of break it down, there are a couple of components of the compute market. There's end equipment PCs. That part is significantly weak and continues to be. Then there's cloud computing, and the thing that's driving cloud computing is really AI acceleration. The beneficiaries of that are GPUs and then hyperscalers doing their own silicon.

好的。所以現在，計算市場，如果你願意的話，只是為了將其分解，計算市場有幾個組成部分。有終端設備 PC。這部分明顯薄弱，而且仍然如此。然後是雲端運算，而推動雲端運算的實際上是人工智慧加速。受益者是 GPU，然後是使用自己的晶片的超大規模廠商。

There's definitely increase in the amount of bespoke silicon that's going in, but it's still dwarfed by sort of traditional GPU-driven accelerators at this point. The TAM, sort of the amount of testers that are being sold to support the hyperscalers is very -- it's not very consistent at this point. We had a big hit last year from a revenue perspective, it's quieter this year, but we think that this is something that's going to play out over probably the next 3 or 4 years. So we're really looking at it in terms of socket wins.

客製化晶片的數量肯定會增加，但目前與傳統 GPU 驅動的加速器相比仍然相形見絀。 TAM（即為支援超大規模而出售的測試儀數量）目前還不太一致。從收入角度來看，去年我們受到了極大的打擊，今年則比較平靜，但我們認為這種情況可能會在未來三、四年內顯現出來。所以我們真的是從套接字獲勝的角度來看它。

And right now, I can tell you that we are on track with socket wins. We have low share in traditional compute. We were aiming to try and win half and half, like half the battles we get into on hyperscalers, and that's about what we're doing this year, that we're winning half of the sockets that we are fighting for and the other guys winning the other half.

現在，我可以告訴你，我們正在取得套接字勝利的軌道上。我們在傳統計算領域的份額很低。我們的目標是嘗試贏得一半一半，就像我們在超大規模電腦上進行的一半戰鬥一樣，這就是我們今年所做的事情，我們贏得了我們正在爭取的一半插座以及其他人贏得另一半。

Okay. And my follow-up has to do with your color on Q1, and I appreciate (inaudible) way to better help us with the modeling. The midpoint implies an 8% sequential decline. And SOCs has historically been the weakest in Q1. So should we assume that Semi Test SOC will be down by more than 8% and everything else would be down less than 8%?

好的。我的後續工作與 Q1 上的顏色有關，我很欣賞（聽不清楚）更好地幫助我們建模的方法。中點意味著環比下降 8%。從歷史上看，SOC 在第一季是最弱的。那麼，我們是否應該假設半測試 SOC 將下降超過 8%，而其他所有產品的下降將低於 8%？

Mehdi, it's Sanjay. Yes. So the seasonality decline is really coming through, I would say, in robotics. Obviously, seasonality comes down. And then we're ramping UR20 Q3 and really Q4 that goes down to run rate. The other component of the decline in Q -- or the forecasted decline in Q1 is tied to storage, really the mobility of the end market and SLT. And from an SOC perspective, we're seeing that as roughly flattish at this point, Q4 to Q1. So those are really the drivers of what we see now.

邁赫迪，我是桑傑。是的。因此，我想說，季節性下降確實在機器人領域出現。顯然，季節性下降。然後我們正在提高 UR20 第三季和第四季的運行速度。 Q 下降的另一個因素——或者第一季的預測下降與儲存有關，實際上是終端市場和 SLT 的移動性。從 SOC 的角度來看，我們認為第四季到第一季的情況大致相當。所以這些確實是我們現在看到的驅動因素。

And as I said in my prepared remarks, I'll just remind you that we're seeing, as lead times come down, a lot more kind of book ship and customers coming to us with incremental orders within lead time. So we're expecting to see kind of more bookings kind of at the tail end of for Q1 shipments. So there's a little bit more volatility there.

正如我在準備好的演講中所說，我只是提醒您，隨著交貨時間的縮短，我們看到越來越多的圖書運輸和客戶在交貨時間內向我們提供增量訂單。因此，我們預計第一季末的出貨量會出現更多預訂。因此，那裡的波動性更大一些。

Our next question comes from the line of Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自 Samik Chatterjee 與摩根大通的對話。

I guess if I can follow up on the last question Mehdi had -- actually, your response that you're getting the 50% of wins in the accelerated compute or sort of custom ASICs that you are targeting. Can you share a bit more in terms of then when we start to think about that translating the wind translating into revenue, when does that start to happen? And particularly, like when you look at a pipeline building here, how does that revenue progression look like? And I have a follow-up.

我想我是否可以跟進 Mehdi 提出的最後一個問題——實際上，您的回答是，您在目標加速計算或定制 ASIC 中獲得了 50% 的勝利。當我們開始考慮將風能轉化為收入時，您能分享更多的資訊嗎？這是什麼時候開始發生的？特別是，當您查看此處的管道建設時，收入進展如何？我有一個後續行動。

Yes. So right now, the noted characteristic of it is volatility year-on-year. Our model of it, though, is by the time you get out to sort of the 2026, 2027 time frame, we expect that these vertically integrated producers are going to represent about $400 million to $500 million of the compute test TAM. And for reference, that's probably going to be on the order of 1/4 to 1/3 of the total compute TAM out in that time frame.

是的。所以現在它的顯著特徵是同比波動。不過，我們的模型是，當你得出 2026 年、2027 年的時間框架時，我們預計這些垂直整合的生產商將佔計算測試 TAM 的約 4 億至 5 億美元。作為參考，這可能約為該時間範圍內總計算 TAM 的 1/4 到 1/3。

And then for my follow-up, I know you're talking about 2024 being a year of incremental growth, and there are lots of puts and takes here, but you're starting 1Q in line with 1Q '23 and when I look at consensus, it has you growing 20% for the year. So obviously, as a magnitude sort of overall difference in sort of where you're starting 1Q versus what consensus is expecting. Any sort of thoughts around whether that's a realistic assumption? Or if that 20% growth were to be realized, what do you need to see in terms of sort of uplift, which quarter that needs to come through for you to be able to realize that kind of strong growth through the year?

然後，對於我的後續行動，我知道您正在談論 2024 年是增量增長的一年，這裡有很多看跌和承受，但您開始的第一季度與 23 年第一季度一致，當我看到共識是，它會讓你今年成長20%。很明顯，第一季的起點與共識的預期之間存在著巨大的整體差異。關於這是否是現實的假設有什麼想法嗎？或者，如果要實現 20% 的成長，您需要看到什麼樣的提升，需要經歷哪個季度才能實現全年的強勁成長？

Yes. I think that -- it's Sanjay. I think that Greg really outlined kind of the potential headwinds and tailwinds in 2024. So right now, the first half and given the limited visibility, especially in mobility, it still continues to look a little dampened or weaker. But from a model perspective, where we see '24 tailwinds are in compute, mobility and robotics for 2024. And so that's where we do see the tailwinds.

是的。我認為——是桑傑。我認為格雷格確實概述了 2024 年潛在的逆風和順風。所以現在，上半年，鑑於能見度有限，特別是在流動性方面，它仍然看起來有點受挫或疲軟。但從模型的角度來看，我們認為 2024 年的「24 個順風車」是在計算、移動性和機器人技術方面。因此，這就是我們確實看到的順風車。

The question is, to what degree. And we've provided some transparency of what we know about in Q1. And we think that, that is the low point. We think we'll grow from there. It's tough to call right now how it appears to be for the rest of the year. And we'll provide an update in January with what we know.

問題是，到什麼程度。我們在第一季提供了一些我們所了解的資訊的透明度。我們認為，這就是最低點。我們認為我們將從那裡成長。現在很難預測今年剩餘時間的情況。我們將在一月份提供我們所知道的最新資訊。

Our next question comes from the line of Vivek Arya with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vivek Arya 與美國銀行的聯繫。

First one on gross margins. Sanjay, could you remind us what drove second half gross margin is lower than the first half? And what will drive overall '24 gross margins higher than '23?

第一個是毛利率。 Sanjay，您能否提醒我們是什麼導致下半年毛利率低於上半年？什麼將推動 24 年整體毛利率高於 23 年？

Yes. Good question. So it's a similar story to what I noted in July, Vivek. Fundamentally, it's product mix in the second half, and we deferred resiliency spending in operations really from first half to second half and in the first half, we were focused on chasing and meeting customer demand. So some of our projects were deferred into the second half. So it's mainly mix as well as deferred resiliency spending from first half to second half.

是的。好問題。所以這與我在 7 月提到的故事類似，Vivek。從根本上來說，是下半年的產品組合，我們實際上將營運中的彈性支出從上半年推遲到了下半年，而在上半年，我們專注於追逐和滿足客戶需求。所以我們的一些專案就延後到了下半年。因此，主要是上半年到下半年的混合支出以及遞延彈性支出。

And 2024, really, I think if -- as we've noted in our prepared remarks, incremental volume. Incremental volume, product mix is a main driver of product mix. And then there's a bunch of other puts and takes. And as I've noted in my prepared remarks, we expect to see much of the operational resiliency costs behind us in '24.

確實，我認為 2024 年——正如我們在準備好的發言中指出的那樣，數量會增加。產品結構增量是產品結構的主要驅動力。然後還有一堆其他的 put 和 take 。正如我在準備好的演講中指出的那樣，我們預計 24 年我們將看到大部分營運彈性成本已經過去。

Got it. And for my follow-up, Greg, I was hoping you could help us kind of square some of the more muted commentary from customers such as the Texas Instruments about industrial right demand, not as much automotive but a lot more industrial demand. I think they said the industrial weakness is broadening. How correlated is that demand to what you see and what your UR business sees? Because you're noticing strength in UR, but when we look at folks such as TI or analog devices, they were talking about weakness on the industrial side. So how correlated have these 2 trends been historically? And what is the kind of the right read across?

知道了。對於我的後續行動，格雷格，我希望你能幫助我們解決來自德州儀器等客戶關於工業權需求的一些較為溫和的評論，不是那麼多的汽車需求，而是更多的工業需求。我認為他們說工業疲軟正在擴大。該需求與您所看到的以及您的 UR 業務所看到的相關性如何？因為您注意到 UR 的優勢，但當我們關注 TI 或模擬設備等公司時，他們正在談論工業方面的弱點。那麼這兩種趨勢在歷史上的相關性又是如何呢？而什麼樣的正確閱讀呢？

So I think the answer to your question is not very. The business that we're in with UR and MiR, tends to be -- it's a short lead time business. We tend to run with about 4 weeks of lead time and customers will use our stuff for smaller projects. Much of the rest of the industrial segment that TI and Infineon and ST are serving is towards much longer lead time projects. So some of our industrial robot competitors are working off of year-long backlogs and for process control equipment, it can be even longer than that.

所以我認為你的問題的答案不是很。我們與 UR 和 MiR 開展的業務往往是交貨時間短的業務。我們的交付週期通常為 4 週左右，客戶會在較小的專案中使用我們的產品。 TI、英飛凌和意法半導體所服務的其他工業領域大部分都是針對交付時間較長的專案。因此，我們的一些工業機器人競爭對手正在處理長達一年的積壓訂單，而對於製程控制設備來說，積壓的時間甚至可能更長。

So what we tend to see is that the cycles of investment for advanced automation lag we do are actually a little bit out of phase with the cycles of investment for, say, factory building. And right now, we're seeing that there is significant weakness in orders for our peers in Industrial Automation compared to where they were a year ago. And we're actually stabilizing relative to them. And that kind of makes sense. They will build a factory, they'll start running in the factory, and then they will look at different tasks in the factory that could be automated using AMRs and cobots and then they'll make a subsequent investment to do that.

因此，我們傾向於看到的是，我們對先進自動化的投資週期確實落後，實際上與工廠建設等投資週期有點不同步。目前，我們發現工業自動化領域同業的訂單與一年前相比明顯疲軟。我們相對於他們實際上正在穩定。這是有道理的。他們將建造一座工廠，開始在工廠中運行，然後他們將研究工廠中可以使用 AMR 和協作機器人實現自動化的不同任務，然後他們將進行後續投資來實現這一目標。

So I think the answer to your question is that you can't really infer what's going to happen with our robotics business based on the industrial semi trends.

所以我認為你問題的答案是，你無法根據工業半導體趨勢真正推斷我們的機器人業務將會發生什麼。

Our next question comes from the line of Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自 Toshiya Hari 與高盛的對話。

My first question, I have two. But my first question on Semi Test lead times, Greg, where are they today? How much have they come in over the past couple of quarters? And over the next couple of quarters, where do you see them going? And when you talk about Q1 of '24 revenue being flat, year-over-year. I guess that's for the overall company. But within your SOC test business or Semi Test business, what percentage of Q1 revenue do you think will be turns business?

我的第一個問題，我有兩個。但我關於半測試交付時間的第一個問題，格雷格，他們今天在哪裡？過去幾季他們的收入是多少？在接下來的幾個季度中，您認為他們會走向何方？當你談到 24 年第一季的營收同比持平時。我想這對整個公司都是如此。但在您的 SOC 測試業務或半測試業務中，您認為 Q1 收入的百分比是多少？

So I'll take the lead time, and then I'll pass it off for the percent of turns to Sanjay. The lead times, if you go back about a year, our lead times were running out past 26 weeks out to 39 weeks, we were way oversubscribed. And right now, we've managed to be able to tighten up the supply chain and get us to the point where our lead times are running in the 16-week time frame, and we're aiming in the short term to get those down to something that's closer to 13 weeks. That's probably where we're going to be sitting.

因此，我將佔據領先時間，然後將輪流百分比傳遞給 Sanjay。交貨時間，如果你追溯到一年左右，我們的交貨時間從過去的 26 週到 39 週，我們已經超額認購了。現在，我們已經設法收緊供應鏈，使我們的交貨時間在 16 週的時間內完成，我們的目標是在短期內將這些時間縮短接近 13 週的時間。那可能就是我們要坐的地方。

But again, that's sort of an average lead time. We will be maintaining some an ability to work within lead time for particular high-priority orders. And so going into a quarter, we will probably have a very good idea about the majority of our revenue but we will have some ability to do book ship. And I don't know, we're scrambling through the papers to make sure we give you a good answer for the turns question here. It's actually kind of fun to watch. So have you gotten to the right page yet?

但同樣，這只是平均交貨時間。我們將保持在交貨時間內處理特定高優先訂單的能力。因此，進入一個季度，我們可能會對我們的大部分收入有一個很好的了解，但我們將有一定的能力進行預訂運輸。我不知道，我們正在翻閱報紙，以確保我們為您提供有關轉彎問題的良好答案。觀看起來確實很有趣。那麼您到達正確的頁面了嗎？

Sure. Yes. A little bit of context. Obviously, with very long lead times, looking out a quarter we'd be mainly booked. And then there's always the rescheduling and stuff drops in and just the tactical kind of shifts back and forth. But overall, for the business, we see it at like 25%, 30% and then dropping down into Semi Test, that is in the 15% to 20% range, which we're now starting to see that, that kind of book ship is starting to become a little bit more increasing and increasing over time. As you'd expect, lead times coming down, people are going to place the orders when they believe they need them. And that's when we get the POs.

當然。是的。一點背景知識。顯然，由於交貨時間很長，預計四分之一的時間我們將主要預訂。然後總是會有重新安排和一些事情的發生，只是戰術上的來回轉變。但總的來說，對於業務來說，我們看到它在 25%、30% 左右，然後下降到半測試，即在 15% 到 20% 的範圍內，我們現在開始看到那種書隨著時間的推移，船舶開始變得越來越多。正如您所期望的，隨著交貨時間的縮短，人們會在認為需要時下訂單。那就是我們收到採購訂單的時候。

That makes sense. And then as my follow-up, a question on China. Your peers in WFE or on the front end side of things, they're seeing 40% to 50% of their revenue come from customers in China. I think your business peaked at about 20% China a couple of years ago, and I think the most recent quarter, you were in the low teens. With new customers and existing customers, expanding capacity, is China a potentially a growth area for you guys with the time lag over the next, call it, 24 months? Or is there a reason to believe that your exposure there could stay low in given competition or what have you?

這就說得通了。接下來是關於中國的問題。 WFE 或前端領域的同行發現，他們 40% 到 50% 的收入來自中國客戶。我認為幾年前你們的業務在中國的佔比達到頂峰，約為 20%，而最近一個季度，你們的業務佔比只有十幾歲。隨著新客戶和現有客戶的增加，產能的擴大，中國對你們來說是否是一個潛在的成長區域，而未來的時間落後，稱之為 24 個月？或者是否有理由相信您在特定競爭中的曝光率可能會保持較低水平，或者您有什麼理由？

Sure. It's Sanjay. I'll take kind of the first half and provide some context about our current China kind of revenue. And then maybe, Greg, if you want to take the second part about the potential growth competition. So just to provide in context, right, in 2022, 15% of our revenue is in China in '23, year-to-date, we've got about 12% of our revenue from China. And that 12% -- about 1/4 of that 12% is really from robotics, production board test and LitePoint.

當然。這是桑傑。我將介紹上半年的情況，並提供一些有關我們目前在中國的收入情況的背景資訊。格雷格，也許你想聽第二部分關於潛在成長競爭的內容。因此，為了提供背景信息，對吧，到 2022 年，我們 15% 的收入來自中國。23 年至今，我們大約有 12% 的收入來自中國。這 12%——其中大約 1/4 實際上來自機器人技術、生產板測試和 LitePoint。

75% is from our Semi Test group and about 60% of that Semi Test, I know a lot of percentages, but 60% of that 70% is from indigenous Chinese customers and 40% is from multinationals. So the indigenous component is roughly about 5% of our overall business really tied to Semi Test.

75%來自我們的半測試小組，大約60%來自半測試，我知道很多百分比，但這70%中的60%來自中國本土客戶，40%來自跨國公司。因此，本土業務大約占我們整體業務的 5% 左右，真正與半測試相關。

And so I'll talk a little bit about the growth trends. If you decompose the business that we have in China right now, probably the part of the segment that's heaviest investment for us is really in memory. And we expect that to continue to grow. There's significant capital investment, WFE investment going into memory in China, and we have very good exposure to that. And there's also a significant growth in analog and power for automotive and industrial in China, and we serve that segment very well with our Eagle Test platform.

所以我會談談成長趨勢。如果你分解我們現在在中國的業務，可能對我們來說投資最多的部分確實在記憶中。我們預計這一數字將持續成長。中國有大量的資本投資、WFE 投資進入記憶體領域，我們對此有很好的了解。中國汽車和工業領域的類比和電源也有顯著成長，我們透過 Eagle Test 平台很好地服務於該領域。

The biggest headwind that we have in China is we are unable to sell test equipment into Huawei. That's by U.S. regulations. And frankly, that takes the biggest single chunk of the test TAM in China out of our -- off of the table for us. So we're in there. We have a great team in China. We're competing for all the business that we can go after. And so we're hoping to kind of hold and potentially grow from where we are.

我們在中國面臨的最大阻力是我們無法向華為出售測試設備。這是美國規定的。坦白說，這讓我們無法考慮在中國測試 TAM 的最大部分。所以我們就在那裡。我們在中國擁有一支優秀的團隊。我們正在爭奪所有我們可以追求的業務。因此，我們希望能夠維持現狀並有可能實現成長。

Our next question comes from the line of Brian Chin with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Brian Chin 和 Stifel 的對話。

I'll just ask a few questions. Greg, maybe taking your starting point, which is modest growth, in the test TAM -- semiconductor test TAM next year in calendar '24. A couple of questions. What kind of market share gain might you expect given maybe the initial expected profile of test spending next year? And also what kind of semiconductor IC unit growth or demand underpins your initial forecast for next year?

我只問幾個問題。 Greg，也許你的起點是適度增長，在測試 TAM——明年日曆 '24 的半導體測試 TAM 中。有幾個問題。考慮到明年測試支出的初步預期情況，您預計會獲得什麼樣的市場份額？您對明年的初步預測是由什麼樣的半導體 IC 單位成長或需求所支持的？

So right now, when we roll it up, we think that our overall ATE share is probably going to be flat to slightly up next year. No dramatic shifts from where we are. And I think there may be a bit of a tailwind because if the -- and that will depend on sort of the strength of the mobility recovery. So that's probably the biggest x factor in terms of where share goes. Now in terms of IC unit growth, I don't have the data at my fingertips in terms of what our current expectations are. I think it's typically -- I'm almost there.

因此，現在，當我們匯總起來時，我們認為明年我們的整體 ATE 份額可能會持平或略有上升。我們現在的情況沒有發生巨大的變化。我認為可能會有一點順風，因為這將取決於流動性復甦的強度。因此，這可能是影響份額走向的最大因素。現在就 IC 單位成長而言，我手頭上沒有關於我們目前預期的數據。我認為這通常是——我就快到了。

Yes. So we're looking at -- probably -- yes. So unit growth was actually down this year, and it's coming back slightly, but it will still be below the units back in 2022 by our best guests. So the thing that's really going on is even though the units will be sort of at or below the peak that they had in 2022, the complexity growth that's happened since 2022 will drive test capacity requirements.

是的。所以我們正在考慮——可能——是的。因此，今年的單位增長實際上有所下降，並且略有回升，但仍低於 2022 年我們最好的客人的單位增長。因此，真正發生的事情是，即使這些單元的數量將達到或低於 2022 年的峰值，但自 2022 年以來發生的複雜性增長將推動測試容量需求。

Got it. And is there any particular end markets where you see that sort of that unit gap feel better in terms of the complexity increase?

知道了。是否有任何特定的終端市場，您認為這種單位差距在複雜性增加方面感覺更好？

I'm sorry, could you repeat that?

抱歉，您能再說一次嗎？

Thinking about sort of the high watermark semiconductor shipments in calendar '22, given some markets maybe won't retest that unit level. Where is the complexity increases or quality control increases big enough to sort of fill that gap?

考慮到 22 年半導體出貨量的高水位線，考慮到某些市場可能不會重新測試該單位水準。複雜性的增加或品質控制的增加在哪裡足以填補這一空白？

Yes. So the biggest lever there is the degree to which advanced processors move to 3-nanometer technology. So it's really in the digital space. There are some tailwinds as more of the compute segment moves towards chipset-based design. That's about a 10% to 20% tailwind on the amount of test that's required. And another area that is -- that complexity really helps is the more complex devices that are going into an automotive environment, it has a much higher test threshold than other markets. So high-performance processors for ADAS applications, those have very high test intensity for the same number of transistors is the same thing going into a fall. So that's where we're really looking for some sort of a complexity tailwind, I guess.

是的。因此，最大的槓桿是先進處理器轉向 3 奈米技術的程度。所以它確實是在數位空間中。隨著越來越多的運算領域轉向基於晶片組的設計，存在一些有利因素。這相當於所需測試量的 10% 到 20% 的順風。另一個領域是，複雜性真正有幫助的是進入汽車環境的更複雜的設備，它的測試門檻比其他市場高得多。因此，用於 ADAS 應用的高效能處理器，對於相同數量的電晶體具有非常高的測試強度，同樣會導致下降。我想這就是我們真正尋找某種複雜性順風車的地方。

Okay. Got it. Maybe for my second question then just -- and maybe for Sanjay. I know maybe January is when you guys like to sort of refresh your thinking the most in terms of forward financial targets, but given sort of the more subdued initial outlook for calendar '24, what is sort of your initial thinking in terms of the calendar '26 financial model?

好的。知道了。也許是為了我的第二個問題——也許是為了桑傑。我知道也許一月是你們最喜歡刷新關於遠期財務目標的想法的時候，但考慮到日曆 '24 的初步前景更加黯淡，您對日曆的初步想法是什麼'26財務模型？

Yes. Great question. Every year, we go through a process where we go through a strategic planning process in Q4. It culminates with a review with our Board in January. And then we share an update to our earnings model. And we're just starting to go through that process now. So I think the first quick answer is [Sanjay] will share that with you in January.

是的。很好的問題。每年，我們都會在第四季進行策略規劃流程。董事會在一月份進行的審查將其推向高潮。然後我們分享我們獲利模式的更新。我們現在才剛開始經歷這個過程。所以我認為第一個快速答案是 [Sanjay] 將在一月份與您分享。

But let me provide a little bit of color to your question. We still have conviction in the overall key drivers and fundamentals of the model in test and in robotics. I think Greg talked a little bit about them, we've narrated them. So over the mid and long term, we have conviction. Obviously, in the short term, the visibility is very muted and very cautious. And so we're going through that now. We're looking for key indicators of when the inflections will occur.

但讓我為你的問題提供一些色彩。我們仍然對測試和機器人技術模型的整體關鍵驅動因素和基礎原理充滿信心。我想格雷格談過一些關於它們的事情，我們已經敘述過它們。因此，從中長期來看，我們有信心。顯然，短期內，能見度非常低，而且非常謹慎。所以我們現在正在經歷這件事。我們正在尋找拐點何時發生的關鍵指標。

But fundamentally, we believe, over the mid and long term, we're going to get to those goals. The timing, we're going to work through and provide an update in January.

但從根本上講，我們相信，從中長期來看，我們將實現這些目標。我們將在 1 月研究並提供更新的時間表。

Our next question comes from the line of Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自喬摩爾與摩根士丹利的對話。

Great. You talked about a memory business that's being driven by speeds and kind of new standards, but we are seeing some volume pickup there. So I'm wondering, are you seeing test utilizations in memory that could drive business there at some point? And then some of your memory customers have underutilized their fabs, any indication that, that supply comes back online?

偉大的。您談到了由速度和新標準驅動的記憶體業務，但我們看到那裡的銷量有所回升。所以我想知道，您是否看到記憶體中的測試利用率可能會在某個時候推動業務發展？然後，您的一些內存客戶沒有充分利用他們的晶圓廠，有任何跡象表明供應恢復在線嗎？

This is Greg. So we definitely are seeing that the market is being driven this year by technology-driven retool. So HBM, DDR5, LPDDR5 and next-generation protocols. The fundamentals in the memory market are getting better. So inventory levels are coming down a bit and production rates are going up.

這是格雷格。因此，我們肯定會看到今年的市場正在受到技術驅動的重組的推動。 HBM、DDR5、LPDDR5 和下一代協議。記憶體市場的基本面正在好轉。因此，庫存水準略有下降，生產力上升。

Right now, we haven't seen that reach a trigger to drive a large amount of capacity buys. But that is one of the tailwinds that we're expecting to help a little bit in 2024, that we don't expect it to be a dramatic increase, and we would expect it to be somewhat back-end loaded because there is a fair amount of capacity that needs to be loaded before they trigger more buys, but it's definitely a tailwind.

目前，我們還沒有看到這種情況觸發大量產能購買。但這是我們預計在 2024 年會有所幫助的有利因素之一，我們預計它不會出現大幅增長，而且我們預計它會在一定程度上後端加載，因為有一個公平的市場在觸發更多購買之前需要加載的容量，但這絕對是一個順風車。

Great. And do you think that you can continue to gain share within memory? Given the transitions that are happening?

偉大的。你認為你能繼續獲得記憶體份額嗎？鑑於正在發生的轉變？

Well, we would love to. The thing that I can tell you is that our share in memory is highest in final test and we also tend to be a first mover that we have the capability to test next-generation standards and protocols, and that allows us to sort of capture more share in that part of the market. In the wafer sort part of the market that's driven really by capacity needs, there's less differentiation, less profit and more competitors.

好吧，我們很樂意這樣做。我可以告訴你的是，我們的內存份額在最終測試中是最高的，而且我們也往往是先行者，我們有能力測試下一代標準和協議，這使我們能夠捕獲更多信息分享那部分市場。在晶圓類別市場中，真正由產能需求驅動的部分，差異化程度較低，利潤較少，但競爭者較多。

So what we tend to see is when we're in a technology-driven retooling cycle, our share tends to be high. And when we're in a much broader capacity add that our share would tend to go down a little bit. But we're always fighting and we do have share in the wafer sort space. It's just not as high as our share in the final test space.

因此，我們傾向於看到的是，當我們處於技術驅動的重組週期時，我們的份額往往很高。當我們的能力更廣泛時，我們的份額往往會略有下降。但我們一直在戰鬥，而且我們確實在晶圓分類領域佔有份額。只是沒有我們在最終測試空間中所佔的比例那麼高。

And our next question comes from the line of Steve Barger with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Steve Barger。

Just going back to the robotics demand stabilizing, we are seeing some plateauing in some industrial markets but the long-term model appears unchanged for robotics. So as you target bigger customers, do they have more durable robust plans relative to smaller customers? Or what gives you confidence that you can get back on track to that mid-20% CAGR by 2026?

回到機器人需求的穩定，我們看到一些工業市場處於穩定狀態，但機器人的長期模型似乎沒有改變。那麼，當您瞄準較大的客戶時，相對於較小的客戶，他們是否有更持久、穩健的計劃？或者是什麼讓您有信心到 2026 年能夠重回 20% 複合年增長率的正軌？

Steve, so thanks for your question. Definitely, large customers are a very different sales process and application process than small customers and robotics. So in small customers, the sales cycle can be quite short but the level of repeat purchases tends to be low.

史蒂夫，謝謝你的提問。當然，大客戶的銷售流程和應用流程與小型客戶和機器人有很大不同。因此，對於小型客戶來說，銷售週期可能很短，但重複購買的水平往往較低。

What we're seeing is we increase our direct coverage of large accounts from robotics is that they work against annual planning cycles and they come up with sort of multi project plans that they will put you into or not. And so since we started assigning more salespeople into this space in 2023, we now have a pretty rich opportunity funnel but it takes longer to get through that funnel than it does with smaller customers.

我們看到的是，我們增加了對機器人大客戶的直接覆蓋範圍，他們按照年度規劃週期工作，並提出了某種多項目計劃，無論您是否參與其中。因此，自從我們在 2023 年開始向這個領域分配更多銷售人員以來，我們現在擁有一個相當豐富的機會漏斗，但與小客戶相比，通過該漏斗需要更長的時間。

So we expect to see a much greater impact from large customers in '24 than we do in '23. At the same time, there's also a lag time associated with the build-out of our OEM channel. So just to remind you, when I say OEM, what I'm talking about is we'll sell a robot to someone who has developed a repeatable solution, whether it's for adhesive application or welding or palletizing, they basically have a product that has our robot inside of it. And then they have their own sales and marketing and service to take care of distribution and customer service.

因此，我們預期 24 年大客戶的影響將比 23 年大得多。同時，我們的 OEM 渠道的建設也存在著一定的滯後性。所以提醒您，當我說 OEM 時，我指的是我們將向開發了可重複解決方案的人出售機器人，無論是用於粘合劑應用、焊接還是碼垛，他們基本上都有一種產品我們的機器人在裡面。然後他們有自己的銷售、行銷和服務來負責分銷和客戶服務。

So we signed up 48 new partners in 2023. Those partners have to go through that development process and build out their own distribution. So what we see is that, not all of the OEMs succeed. There's a certain percentage that do, and they tend to have an inflection about 18 to 24 months after the initial sign-up. So we have sign-ups that have come from 2021 and 2022 that have inflected and are about to inflect.

因此，我們在 2023 年簽約了 48 個新合作夥伴。這些合作夥伴必須經歷該開發過程並建立自己的發行版。所以我們看到的是，並不是所有的原始設備製造商都能成功。有一定比例的人會這樣做，而且他們往往會在初次註冊後 18 到 24 個月左右出現拐點。因此，我們的 2021 年和 2022 年的註冊人數已經發生了變化，並且即將發生變化。

The ones that we signed up in 2023 are going to become a factor towards the end of '24 and into '25.

我們在 2023 年簽署的協議將成為 24 世紀末和 25 世紀的因素。

So if I can summarize that, that longer selling cycle could help mitigate the cyclicality of the underlying markets just because of that length? Is that fair?

因此，如果我可以總結一下，較長的銷售週期可能會因為這個長度而有助於減輕基礎市場的周期性？這樣公平嗎？

It's fair. There's still cyclicality because big companies have lean times and investment times as well. So they sort of follow these PMI cycles a bit, but they work on longer lead times. The thing that I think we're looking at long term as a key way to reduce revenue volatility is to try to increase the amount of software and service revenue as part of our robotics business.

這是公平的。週期性仍然存在，因為大公司也有經濟困難時期和投資時期。因此，他們有點遵循這些 PMI 週期，但他們的交貨時間更長。我認為，從長遠來看，我們將努力增加軟體和服務收入作為我們機器人業務的一部分，作為減少收入波動的關鍵方法。

So we're working to try and make sure that we can develop some recurring revenue streams in that space. And we think that, that will have a good effect. Not immediately, but by the end of this -- by sort of the '26, '27 time frame.

因此，我們正在努力確保我們可以在該領域開發一些經常性收入來源。我們認為，這將會產生良好的效果。不是立即，而是到本次結束時——大約是「26、27」的時間框架。

And so that's a good segue to a quick follow-up. You mentioned being ready to execute M&A if something makes sense, which I don't recall being a big topic the past few quarters, are you thinking more about that? And where would you focus on that across the portfolio?

這是快速跟進的一個很好的延續。您提到如果有道理，準備進行併購，我不記得這在過去幾個季度是一個大話題，您是否對此進行了更多思考？您會在整個投資組合中重點關注哪些面向？

So we're always thinking about M&A. So the -- just to remind you, our capital allocation strategy is that accretive M&A is the highest priority identified use for capital. When we do not find suitable M&A targets, we return that cash flow to our investors, primarily through buybacks. And of course, we have the dividend as well. We always have a pipeline running. We're always looking at things, and we don't comment on what's in our pipeline.

所以我們一直在考慮併購。因此，只是提醒您，我們的資本配置策略是增值併購是確定的資本用途的最高優先順序。當我們找不到合適的併購目標時，我們主要透過回購的方式將現金流回饋給投資者。當然，我們也有股利。我們總是有一條管道在運行。我們總是在關注事物，並且不會評論我們正在開發的內容。

And operator, we're about out of time. So I'd like to just thank everybody for joining. And if you have questions, please reach out directly to me, Andy Blanchard. Thank you and look forward to talking to you over the weeks ahead. Bye-bye.

接線員，我們快沒時間了。所以我想感謝大家的加入。如果您有疑問，請直接聯繫我，安迪布蘭查德。謝謝您，並期待在未來幾週內與您交談。再見。

And this concludes today's conference, and you may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

今天的會議到此結束，大家可以掛斷電話了。感謝您的參與。