泰瑞達 (TER) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Teradyne Q3 2022 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session.

您好，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加泰瑞達 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議。此時，所有參與者都處於只聽模式。演講者演講結束後，將進行問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

It is now my pleasure to introduce Vice President of Investor Relations, Andy Blanchard.

現在我很高興介紹投資者關係副總裁安迪布蘭查德。

Thank you, Andrew. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our discussion of Teradyne's most recent financial results. I'm joined this morning by our CEO, Mark Jagiela; President, Greg Smith; and our CFO, Sanjay Mehta. Following our opening remarks, we'll provide details of our performance for 2022's third quarter along with our outlook for the fourth quarter of '22. The press release containing our third quarter results was issued last evening.

謝謝你，安德魯。大家早上好，歡迎來到我們關於泰瑞達最新財務業績的討論。今天早上，我們的首席執行官 Mark Jagiela 加入了我的行列；總裁，格雷格·史密斯；和我們的首席財務官 Sanjay Mehta。在我們的開場白之後，我們將提供我們 2022 年第三季度業績的詳細信息以及我們對 22 年第四季度的展望。包含我們第三季度業績的新聞稿於昨晚發布。

We're providing slides on the Investor page of the website that may be helpful to you in following the discussion. Replays of this call will be available via the same page after the call ends. The matters that we discuss today will include forward-looking statements that involve risk factors that could cause Teradyne's results to differ materially from management's current expectations. We encourage you to review the safe harbor statement contained in the earnings release as well as our most recent SEC filings.

我們在網站的投資者頁面上提供了幻燈片，可能對您進行討論有所幫助。通話結束後，將通過同一頁面重播此通話。我們今天討論的事項將包括涉及風險因素的前瞻性陳述，這些風險因素可能導致泰瑞達的業績與管理層當前的預期存在重大差異。我們鼓勵您查看收益發布中包含的安全港聲明以及我們最近提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件。

Additionally, those forward-looking statements are made as of today, and we take no obligation to update them as a result of developments occurring after this call. During today's call, we'll make reference to non-GAAP financial measures. We've posted additional information concerning these non-GAAP financial measures, including reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure where available on the Investor page of our website.

此外，這些前瞻性陳述是在今天做出的，我們沒有義務因為這次電話會議後發生的事態發展而對其進行更新。在今天的電話會議中，我們將參考非 GAAP 財務指標。我們已經發布了有關這些非公認會計原則財務指標的更多信息，包括與我們網站投資者頁面上最直接可比的公認會計原則財務指標的對賬。

Looking ahead between now and our next earnings call, Teradyne expects to participate in technology or industrial-focused investor conferences hosted by Baird, Credit Suisse and UBS. Now let's get on with the rest of the agenda. First, Mark and Greg will comment on our recent results and the market conditions as we enter the new quarter. Sanjay will then offer more details on our quarterly results along with our guidance for the fourth quarter.

展望從現在到我們的下一次財報電話會議，泰瑞達預計將參加由 Baird、瑞士信貸和瑞銀主辦的以技術或工業為重點的投資者會議。現在讓我們繼續議程的其餘部分。首先，馬克和格雷格將在我們進入新季度時評論我們最近的業績和市場狀況。然後，桑傑將提供有關我們季度業績的更多細節以及我們對第四季度的指導。

We'll then answer your questions, and this call is scheduled for 1 hour. Mark?

然後我們將回答您的問題，本次電話會議時間為 1 小時。標記？

Thanks, Andy. Hello, everyone, and thanks for joining us this morning. In today's call, Greg will review our 3Q results and 4Q outlook. I'll then describe the longer-term view, and Sanjay will provide the financial details of the quarter. Greg?

謝謝，安迪。大家好，感謝您今天早上加入我們。在今天的電話會議中，格雷格將審查我們的第三季度業績和第四季度展望。然後我將描述長期觀點，桑傑將提供本季度的財務細節。格雷格？

Thanks, Mark, and good morning, everyone. Teradyne's third quarter sales and profits were above the midpoint of our guidance in revenue and profit with sales of $827 million and $1.15 in non-GAAP earnings per share. At the company level, the quarter unfolded generally as planned, but at the operating level, we cleared some supply bottlenecks, which allowed us to ship more semiconductor test products than planned in the quarter.

謝謝，馬克，大家早上好。泰瑞達第三季度的銷售額和利潤高於我們的收入和利潤指引的中點，銷售額為 8.27 億美元，非公認會計準則每股收益為 1.15 美元。在公司層面，本季度總體按計劃展開，但在運營層面，我們清除了一些供應瓶頸，這使我們能夠在本季度出貨比計劃更多的半導體測試產品。

On the other hand, Industrial Automation was weaker than we forecast in July. Putting the third quarter into context, when we spoke in July, we noted that slowing SOC and wireless tester demand in the second half were related to declines in the end-market shipments of smartphones, compute products and associated infrastructure.

另一方面，工業自動化弱於我們 7 月份的預測。回顧第三季度，當我們在 7 月發表講話時，我們注意到下半年 SOC 和無線測試儀需求放緩與智能手機、計算產品和相關基礎設施的終端市場出貨量下降有關。

With that backdrop, we reduced our estimate for the SOC market size and reduced our second half shipment plan approximately $300 million. About 1/3 of that amount was already confirmed in June and about 2/3, $200 million was our judgment on how the second half would unfold. In the subsequent 3 months, about $110 million of the $200 million additional decline was realized and about $90 million was not as overall test demand held up better than we expected in July.

在這種背景下，我們降低了對 SOC 市場規模的估計，並將下半年的出貨計劃減少了約 3 億美元。其中大約 1/3 已經在 6 月份確認，大約 2/3，2 億美元是我們對下半年如何展開的判斷。在隨後的 3 個月中，在 2 億美元的額外下降中實現了約 1.1 億美元，而約 9,000 萬美元沒有實現，因為總體測試需求保持得好於我們 7 月份的預期。

This incremental strength and test has been partially offset by weaker IA demand as reflected in the Q4 guidance. The highlight and Semi Test is the continued strength in Automotive Test demand. This year, we're seeing a step increase in our shipments for ADAS processors, silicon carbide drive and charging ICs and battery management devices.

正如第四季度指引所反映的那樣，這種增量實力和測試已被疲軟的 IA 需求部分抵消。亮點和半測試是汽車測試需求的持續強勁。今年，我們看到 ADAS 處理器、碳化矽驅動和充電 IC 以及電池管理設備的出貨量逐步增加。

Our UltraFLEX platform is well aligned to the unique requirements of multibillion transistor ADAS processors and our Eagle platform is well suited for the thousands of volts and hundreds of amps often required for silicon carbide devices. It's notable that these 3 device types collectively will add over $100 million of incremental SOC TAM in 2022, and they were insignificant 5 years ago.

我們的 UltraFLEX 平台非常適合數十億晶體管 ADAS 處理器的獨特要求，我們的 Eagle 平台非常適合碳化矽設備通常需要的數千伏和數百安培。值得注意的是，這 3 種設備類型將在 2022 年共同增加超過 1 億美元的增量 SOC TAM，而在 5 年前它們是微不足道的。

Shifting now to Industrial Automation. Because only about 30% of our sales are transacted in dollars and there have been significant changes in exchange rates in 2022, we'll describe results in both constant currency and dollar terms. In constant currency, Automation Group Q3 revenue grew 7% from last year's Q3 and is up 19% for the first 9 months of the year.

現在轉向工業自動化。因為我們只有大約 30% 的銷售額以美元交易，而且 2022 年匯率發生了重大變化，我們將以固定貨幣和美元計算結果。按固定匯率計算，自動化集團第三季度收入比去年第三季度增長 7%，今年前 9 個月增長 19%。

In dollar terms, however, revenue contracted 2% in the quarter compared with Q3 '21 and growth is 11% for the first 9 months. Looking at the full year, we expect IA growth from 2021 will be about 6% in dollar terms at the midpoint of our Q4 guidance. In constant currency terms, IA growth will come in at about 14%.

然而，以美元計算，該季度的收入與 21 年第三季度相比收縮了 2%，前 9 個月的增長率為 11%。縱觀全年，我們預計從 2021 年開始，在我們第四季度指引的中點，以美元計算的 IA 增長率約為 6%。以固定匯率計算，IA 增長率將達到 14% 左右。

Even using constant currency terms, this is below our 2022 plan to grow in the mid-30s from the 2021 level and reflects 2 additional factors. First, slowing industrial activity, especially in Europe, where PMIs dropped below 50 in July and have remained in that contraction zone since.

即使使用固定匯率計算，這也低於我們在 2022 年 30 年代中期從 2021 年水平增長的計劃，並反映了另外兩個因素。首先，工業活動放緩，尤其是在歐洲，7 月份 PMI 跌至 50 以下，此後一直處於收縮區域。

Europe is our largest end market for automation, and this is a 10-point headwind to growth. Second, labor scarcity continues in our distribution channel, which we expect to reduce growth by about 5 points. While 2022 growth is below our plan, we have a number of bright spots in IA, and I will highlight just a few. At Universal Robots, customer demand for our higher payload, longer-reach UR20 has been stronger than expected since its introduction midyear, and we expect it to be a meaningful contributor to results when it begins shipping in 2023.

歐洲是我們最大的自動化終端市場，這給增長帶來了 10 個百分點的阻力。其次，我們的分銷渠道繼續存在勞動力短缺，我們預計這會使增長減少約 5 個百分點。雖然 2022 年的增長低於我們的計劃，但我們在 IA 有許多亮點，我將僅強調其中的幾個。在優傲機器人，自年中推出以來，客戶對我們更高有效載荷、更遠距離的 UR20 的需求一直高於預期，我們預計它將在 2023 年開始出貨時對業績做出有意義的貢獻。

The UR20 expands our capability in the palletizing, welding and machine-tending end markets. Also, we've continued to grow our OEM channel at UR including supporting partner expansion from national to international sales coverage. The OEM channel is a powerful growth driver for us. For example, our welding channel grew over 80% in the first 9 months compared with last year.

UR20 擴展了我們在碼垛、焊接和機器管理終端市場的能力。此外，我們還在 UR 繼續發展我們的 OEM 渠道，包括支持合作夥伴從國內銷售範圍擴展到國際銷售範圍。 OEM渠道是我們強大的增長動力。例如，我們的焊接通道在前 9 個月與去年相比增長了 80% 以上。

And for this year, we expect to ship well over 1,200 robots in that vertical. At MiR, our sales to large customers continue to expand with more than 30 customers having fleet sizes greater than 20 robots. The number of customers with these large fleets has increased 30% in 2022. This is significant as our fleet management software is an increasingly important differentiator as fleet sizes grow.

今年，我們預計將在該垂直領域出貨超過 1,200 台機器人。在 MiR，我們對大客戶的銷售繼續擴大，超過 30 家客戶擁有超過 20 台機器人的車隊規模。擁有這些大型車隊的客戶數量在 2022 年增加了 30%。這很重要，因為隨著車隊規模的增長，我們的車隊管理軟件變得越來越重要。

On a related note, at the end of Q3, we merged AutoGuide into MiR as we prepare to offer customers a broad payload range from hundreds to thousands of kilograms sold by the same team using the same fleet management software backed by the same global distribution -- same global network of distributors, all while increasing our engineering, marketing and back-office leverage.

與此相關的是，在第三季度末，我們將 AutoGuide 合併到 MiR 中，因為我們準備為客戶提供廣泛的有效載荷範圍，由同一團隊使用由相同全球分銷支持的相同車隊管理軟件銷售數百至數千公斤 - - 相同的全球分銷商網絡，同時提高我們的工程、營銷和後台影響力。

Finally, MiR service and spares revenue has more than doubled to about 5% of revenue through the first 9 months compared with 2021 as we begin to expand our customer support offering. Across Industrial Automation, the investments we're continuing to make are giving us the foundation to support high growth with differentiated products to global customers through multiple distribution channels.

最後，與 2021 年相比，與 2021 年相比，MiR 服務和備件收入在前 9 個月翻了一倍多，達到收入的 5% 左右，因為我們開始擴展我們的客戶支持服務。在整個工業自動化領域，我們繼續進行的投資為我們通過多種分銷渠道向全球客戶提供差異化產品支持高增長奠定了基礎。

While we are not satisfied with 2022's growth rate and have taken actions to improve, we remain confident of our long-term strategy in these growing markets. With that, I'll now pass it back to Mark.

雖然我們對 2022 年的增長率並不滿意，並已採取行動進行改進，但我們仍然對我們在這些不斷增長的市場中的長期戰略充滿信心。有了這個，我現在將它傳回給馬克。

Thanks, Greg. I'll comment on the longer-term view of our markets and the impact of changes in the regulatory environment. Although better than estimated in our July call, the demand has slowed across our Test markets as we enter Q4. As I noted at the time, predicting the depth and duration of these corrections is challenging, but in each of the last 3 corrections, growth has returned after 6 to 12 months.

謝謝，格雷格。我將評論我們市場的長期觀點以及監管環境變化的影響。儘管好於我們 7 月電話會議中的估計，但隨著我們進入第四季度，整個測試市場的需求已經放緩。正如我當時指出的那樣，預測這些修正的深度和持續時間具有挑戰性，但在最近 3 次修正中的每一次中，增長都在 6 到 12 個月後恢復。

We haven't seen anything in the last 3 months to change that view. So while it's too early to offer estimates on 2023 full year market size, based on the historical patterns and current market conditions, we expect next year's first quarter and first half demand to remain relatively weak. That, combined with the weak macro environment in industrial markets suggest that our Q1 revenue will likely be about 10% softer than Q4.

在過去的 3 個月裡，我們沒有看到任何改變這種觀點的事情。因此，雖然現在就 2023 年全年市場規模做出估計還為時過早，但根據歷史模式和當前市場狀況，我們預計明年第一季度和上半年的需求仍將相對疲軟。再加上工業市場疲軟的宏觀環境，我們的第一季度收入可能會比第四季度低 10% 左右。

Looking at the full year 2023, it's too early to make quantitative predictions but I'll point out how we're thinking about the balloons and anchors for the year ahead. First, the balloons. We expect the semiconductor industry to begin to transition to 3-nanometer technology and our largest customer to grow from less than 10% of company sales in 2022 to more than 10% next year.

縱觀 2023 年全年，現在做出定量預測還為時過早，但我會指出我們如何看待未來一年的氣球和錨點。首先，氣球。我們預計半導體行業將開始向 3 納米技術過渡，我們最大的客戶將從 2022 年占公司銷售額的不到 10% 增長到明年的 10% 以上。

However, we expect them to be at a lower than historical past peak level as 3-nanometer will not hit full stride until 2024. In Industrial Automation, we also expect to grow year-over-year with the exact amount governed by macro conditions. Balancing these balloons are a few anchors. Semiconductor unit volumes and revenue are expected to decline in 2023 due to inventory digestion and macro headwinds.

然而，我們預計它們將低於過去的歷史峰值水平，因為 3 納米要到 2024 年才會全面發展。在工業自動化領域，我們還預計隨著宏觀條件的確切數量同比增長。平衡這些氣球的是一些錨。由於庫存消化和宏觀逆風，預計 2023 年半導體單位數量和收入將下降。

In Industrial Automation, slowing industrial growth worldwide and a pronounced slowdown in European manufacturing are additional anchors. So we're keeping a balanced view of next year, and we should have a better view of the full year in January. Looking longer term, the case for growth in both Test and IA remains intact and compelling.

在工業自動化領域，全球工業增長放緩和歐洲製造業明顯放緩是額外的錨點。所以我們對明年保持平衡，我們應該對一月份的全年有更好的看法。從長遠來看，測試和 IA 的增長情況仍然完好無損且令人信服。

In Semi Test, we're operating on a market growth trend line of 10% since 2017. Growth in our Test businesses is driven by unit growth and complexity. We expect those drivers to remain in place as new semiconductor technologies such as 3-nanometer, gate-all-around and chiplets ramp over the next few years. These technology building blocks enable applications to continue to grow in complexity, including emerging applications like AI, ADAS and new compute architectures.

在 Semi Test 中，自 2017 年以來，我們的市場增長趨勢線為 10%。我們的測試業務的增長是由單位增長和復雜性驅動的。我們預計這些驅動因素將在未來幾年隨著 3 納米、環柵和小芯片等新半導體技術的興起而繼續存在。這些技術構建塊使應用程序的複雜性繼續增長，包括人工智能、ADAS 和新計算架構等新興應用程序。

In Industrial Automation, we remain bullish on the future. While we're not immune to macro conditions, we recognize the underlying drivers of demand are favorable for cobot and AMR automation. Labor demographics and economics and the growing range of tasks our cobots can perform ensures an expanding market opportunity, and our strategy enables us to capitalize on that opportunity for many years to come.

在工業自動化方面，我們仍然看好未來。雖然我們不能倖免於宏觀條件，但我們認識到需求的潛在驅動因素有利於協作機器人和 AMR 自動化。勞動力人口統計和經濟學以及我們的協作機器人可以執行的任務範圍不斷擴大，確保了不斷擴大的市場機會，我們的戰略使我們能夠在未來很多年利用這一機會。

Regarding the recent changes in trade regulations, indigenous Chinese memory makers have been a significant and growing part of our Memory business. And while the new regulations mainly focus on fab equipment rather than test, tighter restrictions, combined with potential reduction in their wafer volume will likely impact our business.

關於最近貿易法規的變化，中國本土存儲器製造商一直是我們存儲器業務的重要組成部分，並且不斷增長。雖然新法規主要關注晶圓廠設備而不是測試，但更嚴格的限制，再加上晶圓產量的潛在減少，可能會影響我們的業務。

This situation is dynamic, but as of now, we see these regulations as about a $75 million to $100 million headwind going into 2023. On the supply side of the trade equation, we have a large manufacturing footprint in China, and our global support team has a professional services operation in place to support local and global customers. As part of our resiliency planning, we have been enabling additional global sites for these activities.

這種情況是動態的，但截至目前，我們認為這些法規將在 2023 年帶來約 7500 萬至 1 億美元的逆風。在貿易等式的供應方面，我們在中國擁有龐大的製造足跡，我們的全球支持團隊擁有專業的服務運營來支持本地和全球客戶。作為我們彈性規劃的一部分，我們一直在為這些活動啟用更多的全球站點。

Given the current environment, we will be accelerating the capacity growth of these other sites. Sanjay will take you through more details of those plans. Stepping back to look at the full year. Despite the drop in demand in the second half, we're on track to deliver our second highest revenue in history. We've balanced our growth investments with financial discipline and we positioned Teradyne for high growth as our core test and IA markets improve.

在當前環境下，我們將加速這些其他站點的容量增長。桑傑將帶您了解這些計劃的更多細節。回過頭來看看全年。儘管下半年需求下降，但我們有望實現歷史第二高的收入。我們已經平衡了我們的增長投資和財務紀律，隨著我們的核心測試和 IA 市場的改善，我們將泰瑞達定位為高增長。

Sanjay will now take you through the financial details. Sanjay?

Sanjay 現在將帶您了解財務細節。桑傑？

Thank you, Mark. Good morning, everyone. Today, I'll provide details on our Q3 results, update you on the impact of the new trade regulations and describe our Q4 outlook. Now to Q3. Third quarter sales were $827 million, with non-GAAP EPS of $1.15. Non-GAAP gross margins were 58.7% and our non-GAAP operating expenses were $247 million.

謝謝你，馬克。大家，早安。今天，我將詳細介紹我們的第三季度業績，向您介紹新貿易法規的影響，並描述我們的第四季度展望。現在到第三季度。第三季度銷售額為 8.27 億美元，非公認會計原則每股收益為 1.15 美元。非美國通用會計準則毛利率為 58.7%，我們的非美國通用會計準則運營費用為 2.47 億美元。

About flat with second quarter OpEx due to implemented spending controls. Non-GAAP operating profit was 28.8%. We had [one 10%] customer in the quarter. The tax rate, excluding discrete items, for the quarter was 18.7% on a non-GAAP basis. Please note, you should now use 17.25% for the full year non-GAAP tax rate.

由於實施了支出控制，與第二季度的運營支出基本持平。非美國通用會計準則營業利潤為 28.8%。本季度我們有 [一個 10%] 的客戶。按非公認會計原則計算，本季度的稅率（不包括離散項目）為 18.7%。請注意，您現在應該使用 17.25% 的全年非 GAAP 稅率。

Looking at the results from a business unit perspective. Semi Test revenue was $576 million with SOC revenue contributing $451 million and Memory of $125 million. We cleared some supply constraints, which enabled the highest level of Memory shipments in the past 2 years. In Memory, the transitions to new Memory standards in both flash and DRAM, along with strong demand from indigenous China customers drove the results.

從業務部門的角度來看結果。 Semi Test 收入為 5.76 億美元，其中 SOC 收入為 4.51 億美元，內存為 1.25 億美元。我們清除了一些供應限制，這使過去 2 年的內存出貨量達到了最高水平。在內存方面，閃存和 DRAM 向新內存標準的過渡，以及中國本土客戶的強勁需求推動了業績的增長。

In SOC, the increasing Semi content for EVs, autonomous driving and infotainment and autos, along with continued strength in analog industrial contributed to the demand. System Test group had revenue of $116 million with Storage Test delivering $70 million in Defense and Aerospace and Production Board Test $46 million. In Wireless Test at LitePoint, revenue was $46 million in the quarter, down 33% year-over-year, primarily because of lower WiFi revenue tied to declining PC and smartphone end markets.

在 SOC 方面，電動汽車、自動駕駛和信息娛樂以及汽車的 Semi 含量不斷增加，以及模擬工業的持續強勢推動了需求。系統測試部門的收入為 1.16 億美元，其中存儲測試提供了 7000 萬美元的國防和航空航天以及生產板測試 4600 萬美元。在 LitePoint 的無線測試中，本季度收入為 4600 萬美元，同比下降 33%，主要是由於 PC 和智能手機終端市場下滑導致 WiFi 收入下降。

Now to Industrial Automation. IA revenue was $89 million with UR contributing $73 million and MiR $16 million. MiR results include AutoGuide. As Greg noted, a large portion of IA sales are outside the U.S. For the first 9 months, 41% of IA sales were in Europe, 29% in the U.S. and 11% in China and the remainder in the rest of the world.

現在到工業自動化。 IA 收入為 8900 萬美元，其中 UR 貢獻了 7300 萬美元，MiR 貢獻了 1600 萬美元。 MiR 結果包括 AutoGuide。正如 Greg 指出的那樣，IA 銷售的很大一部分在美國以外。前 9 個月，41% 的 IA 銷售在歐洲，29% 在美國，11% 在中國，其餘在世界其他地區。

From a financial perspective in IA, the group was slightly above breakeven on a non-GAAP operating basis in the third quarter. And for the full year, we expect to be about breakeven below the 5% to 15% profit range planned for the group. As growth has slowed this year, we've also slowed the growth in OpEx.

從 IA 的財務角度來看，該集團在第三季度的非公認會計準則運營基礎上略高於盈虧平衡。全年，我們預計將在集團計劃的 5% 至 15% 利潤範圍以下實現盈虧平衡。隨著今年增長放緩，我們也放慢了運營支出的增長。

Shifting to supply. Looking at Q4, we continue to face supply issues, but the supply trend continues to improve relative to 3 months ago. These supply bottlenecks noted at the beginning of each quarter have moved from $50 million in Q3 to about $15 million in the fourth quarter. These amounts are outside the high end of our guidance range.

轉向供應。縱觀第四季度，我們繼續面臨供應問題，但相對於 3 個月前，供應趨勢繼續改善。每個季度初注意到的這些供應瓶頸已從第三季度的 5000 萬美元上升到第四季度的約 1500 萬美元。這些金額超出了我們指導範圍的上限。

Switching to a strategic issue. We manufacture certain products and deliver certain engineering services in China for our global customers. While recent U.S. government actions have no immediate impact to these operations, due to concerns about potential future impacts, we are accelerating our strategy to expand our manufacturing and engineering service capabilities in other countries.

切換到戰略問題。我們在中國為我們的全球客戶製造某些產品並提供某些工程服務。儘管美國政府最近的行動對這些業務沒有直接影響，但出於對未來潛在影響的擔憂，我們正在加快我們的戰略，以擴大我們在其他國家的製造和工程服務能力。

In manufacturing, this work has been underway for several years and we're accelerating the work to complete our expansion strategy in the next several quarters. In Engineering Services, the transition will likely take most of 2023 to achieve. Shifting to the balance sheet and cash flow.

在製造業，這項工作已經進行了幾年，我們正在加快工作，以在未來幾個季度完成我們的擴張戰略。在工程服務領域，轉型可能需要 2023 年的大部分時間才能實現。轉向資產負債表和現金流。

Ladies and gentlemen, please stand by. Your conference will resume momentarily. Please stand by.

女士們，先生們，請稍候。您的會議將立即恢復。請待命。

Did John say where we lost it?

約翰有沒有說我們在哪裡丟的？

Ladies and gentlemen, please stand by. Your conference will resume momentarily.

女士們，先生們，請稍候。您的會議將立即恢復。

Andrew? Are we ready to go?

安德魯？我們準備好出發了嗎？

Yes, please go ahead. Yes. We are live with the audience.

是的，請繼續。是的。我們和觀眾一起生活。

Back to you, Sanjay.

回到你身邊，桑傑。

I'll go back to shifting to the balance sheet. Shifting to the balance sheet and cash flow. Our cash and marketable securities at the end of the quarter totaled approximately $900 million, about flat with Q2. We had $233 million in free cash flow in the quarter and our DSO came down from 74 to 58 days.

我將回到轉向資產負債表。轉向資產負債表和現金流。本季度末，我們的現金和有價證券總額約為 9 億美元，與第二季度持平。本季度我們有 2.33 億美元的自由現金流，我們的 DSO 從 74 天下降到 58 天。

Uses of cash in the quarter included share buybacks of $217 million, dividend payments of $17 million and debt retirement of $10 million. Due to opportunistic buying through the year, we finished our $750 million share repurchase plan for 2022 for 3 months ahead of the original schedule. Our Board has authorized continued opportunistic share repurchases in Q4.

本季度現金使用包括 2.17 億美元的股票回購、1700 萬美元的股息支付和 1000 萬美元的債務清償。由於全年的機會性購買，我們提前 3 個月完成了 2022 年 7.5 億美元的股票回購計劃。我們的董事會已授權在第四季度繼續進行機會性股票回購。

Since our program began in 2015, we've repurchased 74 million shares at an average price of $45.85. Regarding debt, to date, $397 million of convertible bonds have early converted. Now to our revolver. During Q3, we worked with our banking partners and have increased the capacity of the revolver to $750 million from $400 million. Our credit facility is in place until December 2026.

自我們的計劃於 2015 年開始以來，我們以 45.85 美元的平均價格回購了 7400 萬股股票。關於債務，迄今為止，3.97 億美元的可轉換債券已提前轉換。現在到我們的左輪手槍。在第三季度，我們與銀行合作夥伴合作，將左輪手槍的容量從 4 億美元增加到 7.5 億美元。我們的信貸額度有效期至 2026 年 12 月。

Now to our outlook for Q4. As Greg noted, our outlook is ahead of what we expected 3 months ago driven mainly by Semi Test. Sales in Q4 are expected to be between $670 million and $750 million with non-GAAP EPS in a range of $0.62 to $0.86 on 164 million diluted shares. Fourth quarter guidance excludes the amortization of acquired intangibles.

現在來看我們對第四季度的展望。正如 Greg 指出的那樣，我們的前景超出了我們 3 個月前主要受 Semi Test 推動的預期。第四季度的銷售額預計在 6.7 億美元至 7.5 億美元之間，非 GAAP 每股收益在 0.62 美元至 0.86 美元之間，攤薄後 1.64 億股。第四季度指引不包括收購無形資產的攤銷。

Fourth quarter gross margins are estimated at 56% to 57%, down from Q3 due to lower volume, product mix and spending on accelerating our manufacturing and service delivery resiliency. OpEx is expected to run at 34% to 38% of fourth quarter sales. On a non-GAAP operating -- the non-GAAP operating profit rate at the midpoint of our fourth quarter guidance is 21%.

第四季度毛利率預計為 56% 至 57%，低於第三季度，原因是銷量、產品組合和加速我們的製造和服務交付彈性的支出減少。 OpEx 預計將佔第四季度銷售額的 34% 至 38%。在非 GAAP 運營方面——我們第四季度指引中點的非 GAAP 運營利潤率為 21%。

Looking at the full year of 2022. At the midpoint of our guidance, 2022 revenue will be $3.1 billion with an EPS of $4.08. Gross margin for the full year should be approximately 59%. Regarding OpEx for the full year, we spent a bit lower than planned in Q3 in both Test and IA businesses. We expect the full year OpEx will be about $1 billion up about 3% from 2021 at the midpoint of our Q4 guidance.

展望 2022 年全年。在我們指導的中點，2022 年的收入將為 31 億美元，每股收益為 4.08 美元。全年毛利率應約為 59%。關於全年的運營支出，我們在第三季度在測試和 IA 業務上的支出都比計劃的要低一些。我們預計，在第四季度指引的中點，全年運營支出將比 2021 年增長約 10 億美元，增長約 3%。

Recall our operating model flexes OpEx with revenue. So growth has naturally trended down through the year. A couple of points looking ahead at 2023. First, gross margins. I will note that because of the additional spending on supply resiliency, and forecasted product mix, we expect Q1 gross margin will be similar to Q4's level.

回想一下，我們的運營模式通過收入來調整運營支出。因此，全年增長自然呈下降趨勢。展望 2023 年的幾點。首先，毛利率。我會注意到，由於供應彈性方面的額外支出和預測的產品組合，我們預計第一季度的毛利率將與第四季度的水平相似。

Second, tax rate in 2023 is forecasted to be at 17%. We'll update our midterm operating model in our January call. Summing it all up, we're expecting higher revenue and profit in the second half of the year than prior update in July. Declines in our Test portfolio were less than forecasted, offset by weaker IA business driven by FX, continued economic challenges in Europe and labor scarcity in the channel.

其次，預計2023年的稅率為17%。我們將在 1 月份的電話會議中更新我們的中期運營模式。綜上所述，我們預計下半年的收入和利潤將高於 7 月份的更新。我們的測試組合的下降幅度低於預期，但被外匯推動的 IA 業務疲軟、歐洲持續的經濟挑戰和渠道中的勞動力短缺所抵消。

For 2022, OpEx spending will increase year-over-year approximately 3% versus the 11% to 13% anticipated at the beginning of the year as revenue forecasts have declined from our view in January. In a challenging environment, regardless if the driver is economic downturn, regulatory changes, supply shortages, labor scarcity or whatever may come our way, we're confident we have a great team, strategy, operating model and experience to lead us through whatever lies ahead.

到 2022 年，OpEx 支出將同比增長約 3%，而年初預期的增長為 11% 至 13%，原因是我們 1 月份的收入預測有所下降。在充滿挑戰的環境中，無論驅動因素是經濟低迷、監管變化、供應短缺、勞動力短缺還是我們可能遇到的任何問題，我們都相信我們擁有出色的團隊、戰略、運營模式和經驗，可以帶領我們度過難關先。

We will continue to focus on our customers and the long-term opportunities in Test and Industrial Automation markets. With that, I'll turn things over to Andy.

我們將繼續關注我們的客戶以及測試和工業自動化市場的長期機遇。有了這個，我會把事情交給安迪。

Thanks, Sanjay. Andrew, we would now like to take some questions. And as a reminder, please limit yourself to one question and a follow-up.

謝謝，桑傑。安德魯，我們現在想回答一些問題。提醒一下，請將自己限制在一個問題和後續行動上。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our first question comes from the line of Krish Sankar from Cowen.

我們的第一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Krish Sankar。

Can you hear me?

你能聽到我嗎？

Yes, we can.

我們可以。

I had 2 of them. First one, Mark, I'm just kind of curious. You've seen Industrial Automation flow, you've seen mobile compute flow. And then I understand the demand drivers for ADAS and Auto. Do you worry that Auto and Industrial Test is the next shoe to drop? Or do you think that it could be resilient into 2023?

我有兩個。第一個，馬克，我只是有點好奇。您已經看到了工業自動化流程，您已經看到了移動計算流程。然後我了解了 ADAS 和汽車的需求驅動因素。您是否擔心 Auto and Industrial Test 會成為下一隻被淘汰的鞋？還是您認為它可以恢復到 2023 年？

Yes. I think that Industrial is probably something we're looking to soften a little bit in 2023. And Automotive at the moment is just -- there's no sign of that. It's very strong. We're in a year where the market size for Automotive Semiconductors is all-time peak.

是的。我認為工業可能是我們希望在 2023 年稍微軟化的東西。而目前的汽車只是——沒有任何跡象。它非常強大。我們正處於汽車半導體市場規模達到歷史最高水平的一年。

But the ADAS and EV content is on such a dramatic rise that it could very well be that next year has a flattening. But at the moment, we don't see it softening, certainly not through Q1.

但 ADAS 和 EV 的內容正在急劇上升，很可能明年會出現扁平化。但目前，我們沒有看到它軟化，當然不會到第一季度。

Got it. Got it. That's very helpful. And then as a quick follow-up, I think you mentioned that the China impact was probably $75 million to $100 million headwind in 2023. I'm kind of curious, you mentioned a lot of the exposure was through Memory. What about the China OSAT? I thought you had pretty high exposure over there too or is that a part of this $75 million to $100 million headwind?

知道了。知道了。這很有幫助。然後作為一個快速跟進，我想你提到了 2023 年對中國的影響可能是 7500 萬到 1 億美元。我有點好奇，你提到很多曝光都是通過記憶。中國OSAT呢？我認為你在那裡也有相當高的曝光率，還是這 7500 萬到 1 億美元逆風的一部分？

Most of that headwind is Memory. There's not really a lot of incremental restrictions that we have related to China OSAT. So that's not really a headwind for us.

大部分不利因素是內存。我們對中國 OSAT 的增量限制並不多。所以這對我們來說並不是真正的逆風。

And our next question comes from the line of C.J. Muse with Evercore.

我們的下一個問題來自 C.J. Muse with Evercore 的系列。

I guess I was hoping to get a little bit more detail on gross margins. I think you talked about manufacturing, engineering, resiliency and kind of investments outside of China negatively impacting margins into Q1. And I guess, can you give a little bit more color on the plans there and how we should think about the impact to overall calendar '23?

我想我希望能獲得更多關於毛利率的細節。我認為您談到了製造、工程、彈性和中國以外的投資類型對第一季度的利潤率產生負面影響。我想，您能否對那裡的計劃進行更多說明，以及我們應該如何考慮對 23 年整體日曆的影響？

Sure. It's Sanjay. So addressing gross margin, then I'll get to the resiliency plan. So think of Q4 as roughly 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 volume decline, product mix and then resiliency spending of the bridge from Q3 to Q4. And a lot of that continues into Q1. Getting into the resiliency plans.

當然。是桑傑。因此，解決毛利率問題，然後我將討論彈性計劃。因此，將第四季度視為大約 1/3、1/3、1/3 的銷量下降、產品組合以及從第三季度到第四季度的橋樑彈性支出。其中很多持續到第一季度。進入彈性計劃。

For the past couple of years, we've been working to -- on what I call a multi-country manufacturing approach. We've obviously grown over the last several years and we had to increase capacity. So we fundamentally took the approach to have redundant capacity in both different geographies and not just for manufacturing, but from a supply chain perspective.

在過去的幾年裡，我們一直在努力——我稱之為多國製造方法。在過去的幾年裡，我們顯然已經成長了，我們不得不增加產能。因此，我們從根本上採取了在不同地區擁有冗餘產能的方法，而不僅僅是製造業，而是從供應鏈的角度來看。

And from that, we've chosen to accelerate over the next couple of quarters. So what you're seeing is an accelerated spend on the manufacturing. And then from an engineering services perspective, again, to create capacity in different locations, that will take a little bit longer into the second half of 2023.

因此，我們選擇在接下來的幾個季度加速。所以你看到的是製造業的加速支出。然後再次從工程服務的角度來看，在不同的地點創造能力，這將需要更長的時間到 2023 年下半年。

Very helpful. As my follow-up, you talked a bit about 2023 outlook and highlighted your top customer accelerating higher, but not getting back to prior peak. I guess any color there in terms of kind of the diversification of the business and/or when you'll have clear visibility to what kind of the magnitude of the growth might look like?

非常有幫助。作為我的後續行動，您談到了 2023 年的前景，並強調了您的主要客戶加速走高，但沒有回到之前的高峰。我猜在業務多樣化和/或您何時可以清楚地了解增長的幅度方面有什麼顏色？

Yes. As usual, with our largest customer, the visibility comes pretty late April of next year. We do get signs as early as this time of the year, which is why we have the sort of commentary on it going back above 10% for them. But it's not going to go back to greater than 20%. We don't believe where we've seen prior peaks, primarily because the 3-nanometer move in 2023 will be -- for a fraction of the phone models that will be introduced.

是的。像往常一樣，對於我們最大的客戶來說，能見度會在明年 4 月下旬到來。早在一年中的這個時候我們就會收到跡象，這就是為什麼我們對它的評論會回到 10% 以上。但它不會回到超過 20% 的水平。我們不相信我們在哪裡看到了之前的峰值，主要是因為 2023 年的 3 納米移動將是 - 對於將要推出的手機型號的一小部分。

So that will expand as we go beyond 2023, and we would expect it to continue to grow, therefore, that business piece. Outside of that, we've talked a bit in these calls about design wins in emerging vertically integrated nontraditional semiconductor companies. That should be another growth engine for us as we look into 2023. So I didn't call that out as a specific balloon, but that sits there as well on top.

因此，隨著我們超過 2023 年，這將擴大，我們預計它會繼續增長，因此，該業務部分。除此之外，我們在這些電話會議中談到了新興垂直整合非傳統半導體公司的設計勝利。當我們展望 2023 年時，這應該是我們的另一個增長引擎。所以我沒有把它稱為一個特定的氣球，但它也是最重要的。

And our next question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的蒂莫西·阿庫裡（Timothy Arcuri）。

So I'm wondering if -- Mark, maybe you can help bridge the gap between Q4 is better because things aren't as bad as you thought when you guided, particularly on the Semi Test side, mostly it sounds like because of supply, but then Q1 being worse. So if to get Q1 down 10%, you have to assume a pretty significantly worse than normal Q1, which I assume would mostly come from Semi Test. So can you sort of help us bridge that gap?

所以我想知道——馬克，也許你可以幫助彌合第四季度之間的差距，因為事情並沒有你在指導時想像的那麼糟糕，特別是在半測試方面，聽起來主要是因為供應，但隨後 Q1 變得更糟。因此，如果要讓第一季度下降 10%，你必須假設比正常的第一季度要差得多，我認為這主要來自半測試。那麼你能幫助我們彌合這個差距嗎？

Well, first of all, in Industrial Automation, our Q1 is always down from Q4. So that is a factor here. And it's reasonably significant. So that is one thing. But in the case of Semi Test, we do see some incremental weakening in Industrial, which we spoke about. The China headwinds we talked about around Memory will start to impact us in Q1 as well.

嗯，首先，在工業自動化領域，我們的第一季度總是低於第四季度。所以這是一個因素。它相當重要。所以這是一回事。但是在半測試的情況下，我們確實看到了我們談到的工業領域的一些漸進式減弱。我們談到的關於內存的中國逆風也將在第一季度開始影響我們。

So the combination of those 2 are kind of what leads us into that estimate for Q1.

因此，這兩者的結合就是導致我們對第一季度進行估計的原因。

Got it. Okay. And then can you also talk about -- I know that it's a bit early to kind of talk about what the outlook is for the full year next year. But can you talk about any sense of directionality for the SOC TAM? I assume that the Memory TAM will be down. Clearly, you have front-end WFE down 40% plus next year for Memory.

知道了。好的。然後你能不能談談——我知道現在談論明年全年的前景還為時過早。但是你能談談 SOC TAM 的方向感嗎？我假設內存 TAM 將關閉。顯然，明年內存的前端 WFE 下降了 40% 以上。

So I assume that the Memory Test TAM would be down. But front-end foundry and logic WFE TAM is not down that much next year. It's down probably 5%, maybe 10%. So do you have any sense in terms of where the SOC TAM could go next year, at least from a directional perspective?

所以我假設內存測試 TAM 會關閉。但前端代工和邏輯 WFE TAM 明年並沒有下降那麼多。它可能下降了 5%，也可能下降了 10%。那麼你對 SOC TAM 明年的發展方向有什麼看法嗎，至少從方向的角度來看？

Well, it's interesting. So first on Memory, although you're right on the WFE estimates, a lot of what's going to happen in Memory, especially DRAM next year, is the shift to DDR5 finally for server applications. That requires a brand-new Test platform. So we actually think that Memory next year for a test will actually be pretty good.

嗯，這很有趣。所以首先是內存，雖然你對 WFE 的估計是正確的，但明年內存，尤其是 DRAM 中將發生的很多事情是服務器應用最終向 DDR5 的轉變。這需要一個全新的測試平台。所以我們實際上認為明年的內存測試實際上會非常好。

It may be, let's say, flattish with 2022 levels. It could -- because on the NAND side, it could come down a little bit, but we're pretty optimistic given what we're hearing from our customers because of the DDR5 transition. In SOC, from a TAM point of view, I would expect the overall TAM to be a little bit weaker because the -- late in the year, declines in the PC markets, the compute markets, I think will precipitate into a lull in capacity adds early next year.

比方說，它可能與 2022 年的水平持平。它可能——因為在 NAND 方面，它可能會下降一點，但考慮到由於 DDR5 過渡而從客戶那裡聽到的消息，我們非常樂觀。在 SOC 中，從 TAM 的角度來看，我預計整體 TAM 會稍微弱一些，因為今年年底，PC 市場、計算市場的下滑，我認為將陷入產能停滯明年初添加。

And that will get offset, of course, by, let's say, some mobility growth related to 3-nanometer. But maybe the falloff on the PC side -- the impact of the falloff on the PC side might be more pronounced than the growth on the mobility side. So -- and let's say, Automotive remains relatively strong. Industrial weakens a bit. So I could see it being marginally down next year. The first half much more so. I think that's where we're going to see the sort of digestion around capacity for PC Test and such come to fruition.

當然，這將被一些與 3 納米相關的移動性增長所抵消。但也許 PC 端的衰落——PC 端的衰落的影響可能比移動端的增長更明顯。所以 - 讓我們說，汽車仍然相對強大。工業略有減弱。所以我可以看到它明年會略有下降。前半段更是如此。我認為這就是我們將看到圍繞 PC 測試容量進行的那種消化，從而取得成果。

Our next question comes from the line of Samik Chatterjee with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Samik Chatterjee。

For the first one, if I could start on gross margin, you gave us some color for 1Q. I was just thinking if you can give us a bit more color on the trajectory for the year, particularly the implications of the drivers of growth that you're outlining, which is -- seems to have a lot of the growth will come from your primary customer next year and some from IA?

對於第一個，如果我可以從毛利率開始，你給了我們第一季度的一些顏色。我只是在想，如果你能給我們更多關於今年軌蹟的顏色，尤其是你所概述的增長驅動因素的含義，那就是——似乎有很多增長將來自你的明年的主要客戶和一些來自 IA 的客戶？

But there's obviously demand slowdown across the board as well as the Memory headwinds that you outlined. So -- and there's also, I guess, supply improvement. So as we sort of look at the puts and takes, how should we think about the trajectory of gross margin given the growth drivers? And I have a follow-up.

但顯然需求全面放緩以及您概述的內存逆風。所以 - 我猜還有供應改善。因此，當我們查看看跌期權時，考慮到增長驅動因素，我們應該如何考慮毛利率的軌跡？我有一個後續行動。

Sure. So first, let me ground you -- and as I've said in my prepared remarks, this year, we plan to come in approximately 59% are on model. There's no change to our operating model that we're managing the business at 59% to 60%.

當然。所以首先，讓我讓你停下來——正如我在準備好的評論中所說的那樣，今年，我們計劃進入大約 59% 的模型。我們的運營模式沒有改變，我們以 59% 到 60% 的比例管理業務。

I think I outlined in Q1 that we expect some headwinds tied to product mix as well as spending on resiliency accelerations. We're just going through the planning phase right now for 2023, and we'll be able to provide a little bit more color in the January call, but we fundamentally manage the business at 59% to 60% gross margins. And in any given quarter, those are going to oscillate tied to product mix and kind of what's happening in the environment.

我想我在第一季度概述了我們預計與產品組合以及彈性加速支出有關的一些不利因素。我們現在剛剛進入 2023 年的規劃階段，我們將能夠在 1 月份的電話會議中提供更多的色彩，但我們從根本上以 59% 到 60% 的毛利率管理業務。在任何給定的季度，這些都將與產品組合和環境中發生的事情有關。

For my follow-up. I think I heard you say for the Industrial Automation slowdown that you're seeing, some level of that slowdown come through because of labor shortages. I'm not sure if I heard you correctly there. But I'm just curious if what you're hearing from your customers is more of a pullback in terms of capital investment plans that's driving the slowdown that you're seeing right now?

為了我的後續。我想我聽到你說你看到的工業自動化放緩，某種程度的放緩是由於勞動力短缺造成的。我不確定我是否聽對了。但我只是好奇，如果您從客戶那裡聽到的更多的是資本投資計劃的回落，這會導致您現在看到的經濟放緩？

Or is that sort of more of a next step right now, it's more about labor shortages that you sort of outlined?

或者現在是不是更多的下一步，更多的是你概述的勞動力短缺？

I pointed out there were sort of 2 factors involved. There is a slowdown in spend primarily in Europe due to economic conditions. And there, you do see some customers that are implementing capital freezes or limiting their investments. In other regions, the labor scarcity in the channel is the primary factor.

我指出這涉及到兩個因素。由於經濟狀況，主要在歐洲的支出放緩。在那裡，你確實看到一些客戶正在實施資本凍結或限制他們的投資。在其他地區，渠道勞動力稀缺是首要因素。

What we see with our partners is that they actually are maintaining very high project backlogs and they're trying to work through those projects and add to their capacity at the same time, so that they're able to support a higher level of business. So we haven't seen a pullback in regions other than Europe, it's much more a constraint -- a capacity constraint in our traditional distributor channel.

我們從合作夥伴那裡看到的是，他們實際上維護著非常高的項目積壓，他們正在努力完成這些項目並同時增加他們的能力，以便他們能夠支持更高水平的業務。因此，我們在歐洲以外的地區沒有看到回落，這更多是一種限制——我們傳統分銷渠道的能力限制。

Our next question comes from the line of Mehdi Hosseini with SIG.

我們的下一個問題來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

The first one for Sanjay. In this scenario, and I'm not asking for a guide, in a scenario where your 2023 revenues would be flattish, would you expect OpEx flat, up or down? And I have a follow-up.

桑傑的第一個。在這種情況下，我並不是在尋求指導，在您的 2023 年收入將持平的情況下，您會期望 OpEx 持平、上升還是下降？我有一個後續行動。

Yes. Good question, Mehdi. We're -- as I said earlier in the Q&A, we're currently preparing our plans for 2023, and we'll provide an update. But I will say, in January, we thought OpEx was going to grow of this year, 11% to 13%. Our operating model, obviously, with the macro environment and our projections coming down for the back half of '22 and then for the full year, our operating model has our very little compensation declining OpEx and we also implemented spending controls.

是的。好問題，梅赫迪。我們 - 正如我之前在問答環節中所說，我們目前正在準備 2023 年的計劃，我們將提供更新。但我會說，在一月份，我們認為今年的運營支出會增長 11% 到 13%。顯然，我們的運營模式隨著宏觀環境和我們對 22 年下半年和全年的預測下降，我們的運營模式幾乎沒有降低運營支出的補償，我們還實施了支出控制。

So what I can guide is that we're going to have a plan that's integrated and ties to a revenue and a market view. And then if the environmental conditions change, we'll course correct as you've seen us do this year.

所以我可以指導的是，我們將製定一個與收入和市場觀點相結合的計劃。然後，如果環境條件發生變化，我們將按照您今年看到的那樣進行糾正。

Okay. Let me come back to the question in a different way. You guys have been very proactive in helping us better help investors -- you were the first one, 9, 12 months ago to talk about 3-nanometer pushed out and this morning, again, your recent expectation with 3-nanometer 9 months ago, you were referring to significant strengthened capacity being added for MCUs analog.

好的。讓我以不同的方式回到這個問題。你們一直非常積極主動地幫助我們更好地幫助投資者——在 9 個月、12 個月前，你們是第一個談論推出 3 納米的人，今天早上，再次，您最近對 9 個月前對 3 納米的期望，您指的是為模擬 MCU 添加了顯著增強的容量。

And now I'm looking forward and some of those front-end equipment being added and may not be fully utilized. So why not take opportunity and be more conservative? Now I understand you're helping us by giving an overview of Q1 but why not just be more aggressive in being conservative?

現在我很期待，其中一些前端設備被添加並且可能沒有被充分利用。那麼為什麼不抓住機會，更加保守呢？現在我知道您通過概述第一季度來幫助我們，但為什麼不更加積極地保守呢？

Well, I don't think we're being conservative or optimistic in terms of beyond Q1. We just don't have visibility. And so we could be speculative maybe. But it's just being a little bit prudent of what we know versus what we speculate. And I think the days of inventory in the semiconductor supply chain suggest there's just digestion needed. And that should be something that's already starting and perhaps works its way through by next summer in many of these markets. But the bottom line is we don't know. And so we don't want to go out too far on our speculation.

好吧，我不認為我們在第一季度之後是保守或樂觀的。我們只是沒有能見度。所以我們可能會投機。但這只是對我們所知道的與我們推測的相比有點謹慎。而且我認為半導體供應鏈中庫存的日子表明只需要消化。這應該是已經開始的事情，並且可能會在明年夏天在許多這些市場中實現。但最重要的是我們不知道。所以我們不想在我們的猜測上走得太遠。

I'm not asking for speculating, but if I go back to 9 months ago, we are thinking of yes, considerable amount of front-end investments being added. But now we're finally looking at the inventory situation that is problematic. 25, you're high and your customers have to come back on production. So even if they have added investment for front end, those equipment are not going to be fully utilized. So wouldn't none compute SOC be weak into midyear as your customers become more aggressive in working down inventories?

我不是在要求投機，但如果我回到 9 個月前，我們正在考慮是的，大量的前端投資正在增加。但現在我們終於看到了有問題的庫存情況。 25，你情緒高漲，你的客戶必須回來生產。因此，即使他們增加了前端投資，這些設備也不會得到充分利用。那麼，隨著您的客戶在減少庫存方面變得更加積極，沒有人計算 SOC 會不會在年中變得疲軟？

Sure. It's very -- it's likely that's the case. But on the other hand, there's offsets to that, that I mentioned. Our largest customer probably is going to be stronger. And so there's offsets to what is, let's say, likely to be digestion in some of those markets.

當然。非常 - 很可能就是這種情況。但另一方面，我提到了這一點。我們最大的客戶可能會變得更強大。因此，可以說，其中一些市場可能正在消化的東西可以抵消。

But in our neck of the woods around mobility, 2022 was unprecedentedly weak because of the factors around product migration and complexity growth that worked against our neck of the woods. That's going to work in our favor a little bit next year to offset some of what you're referring to.

但在我們圍繞流動性的困境中，由於產品遷移和復雜性增長等因素對我們不利，因此 2022 年空前疲軟。明年這將對我們有所幫助，以抵消您所指的一些內容。

And our next question comes from the line of Vivek Arya with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Vivek Arya。

First one on smartphone test. I'm curious how much of the existing capacity that's for 5-nanometer can be repurposed for 3-nanometer tested? Is there a large reuse element that we should be aware of? And kind of related to that, I thought that one of the incremental growth areas for next year was the possibility that if your large customer would in-source their 5G modems, that would provide you incremental opportunity, but that seems to be pushed out as well.

第一個智能手機測試。我很好奇 5 納米的現有容量中有多少可以重新用於 3 納米測試？是否有我們應該注意的大的重用元素？與此相關，我認為明年的增量增長領域之一是，如果您的大客戶將他們的 5G 調製解調器內購，這將為您提供增量機會，但這似乎被推出為出色地。

So I just wanted to get your insights on the reuse aspect and the large customer retaining the 5G modem, what impact does that have on how you're thinking about next year?

所以我只是想了解您對重用方面和保留 5G 調製解調器的大客戶的見解，這對您明年的想法有什麼影響？

Yes. So first of all, testers reuse, yes, 100%. There's no obsolescence in the short term on the SOC AP Test side. This has been true for 10-plus years. The testers do not often obsolete themselves. We will come to that point at some point in the next 4 or 5 years where that will begin to happen, but not in the short term.

是的。所以首先，測試人員重用，是的，100%。 SOC AP 測試方面短期內不會過時。 10 多年來一直如此。測試人員通常不會過時。我們將在未來 4 或 5 年的某個時間點開始發生這種情況，但不會在短期內發生。

On the drivers of Test demand at our largest customer subject for a little bit. I'm going to answer it a little bit broader than just the modem because I don't want to speculate or get into our customers' introduction plans on any specific device. But in general, when we look at 2022, now that we understand and it's public that, a, the new processor for phones that was introduced in 2022 only went to the high-end phone models and that new processor being the last processor built on 5-ish nanometer was only a 6% growth in transistor count.

關於我們最大客戶主題的測試需求驅動因素。我將比調製解調器更廣泛地回答它，因為我不想推測或進入我們客戶在任何特定設備上的介紹計劃。但總的來說，當我們看到 2022 年時，現在我們已經了解並且公開了，a，2022 年推出的用於手機的新處理器僅適用於高端手機型號，而新處理器是最後一個基於該處理器的處理器5-ish 納米的晶體管數量僅增長了 6%。

So very modest complexity growth, really muted the demand from that our largest customer this year, drove them below 10%, and that's all kind of clear. Now if we look forward, the combination of what you described, the introduction of a new line of silicon, when that happens, will be a bump. And I'm not going to say if it's when, but that's obviously in the pipe.

因此，非常溫和的複雜性增長，確實抑制了我們今年最大客戶的需求，將它們推低到 10% 以下，這一切都很清楚。現在，如果我們向前看，結合你所描述的，引入新的矽線，當這種情況發生時，將是一個顛簸。我不會說是不是什麼時候，但這顯然是在醞釀之中。

Another bump is 3-nanometer for the apps processor for 2023 phones. If, in fact, that occurs, it's likely that it will be a pretty significant complexity bump, not 6%, but probably back in the 20% to 30% complexity growth that we've seen historically with a new node. That gets muted a little bit though because it's likely it will still only go into the top-end phone models, while this year's 6% incremental complex part waterfalls down to the other models.

2023 年手機的應用處理器的另一個突破是 3 納米。如果事實上發生這種情況，它很可能會是一個非常顯著的複雜性提升，而不是 6%，但可能會回到我們歷史上使用新節點看到的 20% 到 30% 的複雜性增長。不過，這有點被忽略了，因為它很可能仍然只會進入高端手機型號，而今年 6% 的增量複雜部分會下降到其他型號。

So the other models in 2023 aren't going to see much of a bump, but the high-end phone will. That's what kind of gives us this view that they could go back to being greater than 10%, but less than historical peaks. Then let's look forward to 2024. We see another significant bump in complexity at the high end that phone app processor that was introduced in 2023 would likely waterfall down to the other models.

因此，2023 年的其他機型不會有太大的提升，但高端手機會。這就是讓我們認為它們可以回到大於 10%，但低於歷史峰值的觀點。然後讓我們期待 2024 年。我們看到 2023 年推出的手機應用處理器可能會下降到其他型號的高端複雜性顯著增加。

And then the full product line in 2024 is likely to see a significant jump in complexity. So this is sort of how the movie plays out. And then on top of that, there's new silicon. There's also high-performance computing. All of that moving to 3-nanometer. But it's just going to be partially, I think, in '23 and probably more fully in '24. I'm sorry if that's too long an answer.

然後到 2024 年，整個產品線的複雜性可能會出現顯著增長。所以這就是電影的播放方式。最重要的是，還有新的矽。還有高性能計算。所有這些都轉向 3 納米。但我認為，這只是部分，在 23 年，可能在 24 年更全面。如果答案太長，我很抱歉。

No, no, very helpful. My follow-up question is, it's interesting that you are keeping your calendar '24 earnings model of $8, which is roughly a doubling from the '22 level even though '23 seems to be facing some of these macro headwinds. Mark, what's your gut on -- what is kind of the bottom of the cycle for you, right? Is it Q1, Q2 next year? Like when do you start making the recovery to your '24 plan? Or is the '24 plan looking ambitious at this point?

不不不，很有幫助。我的後續問題是，有趣的是，您將 24 年日曆收入模型保持在 8 美元，這大約是 22 年水平的兩倍，儘管 23 年似乎面臨著一些宏觀逆風。馬克，你的直覺是什麼——對你來說，週期的底部是什麼樣的，對吧？明年是Q1、Q2嗎？比如你什麼時候開始恢復你的 '24 計劃？還是'24 計劃在這一點上看起來雄心勃勃？

Well, we'll update you on the '24 plan in January. But what I just described gives you some understanding of why we think '24 is probably a pretty strong year. In '23, as usual, our quarters are lumpy. So our largest customer tends to tool in Q3 and Q4. So we would expect a bit of a bump there.

好吧，我們將在 1 月份向您更新 '24 計劃。但我剛才描述的內容讓您了解了為什麼我們認為 24 年可能是非常強勁的一年。 23 年，像往常一樣，我們的宿舍很崎嶇。因此，我們最大的客戶傾向於在第三季度和第四季度使用工具。因此，我們預計那裡會有一些顛簸。

But one thing we can't predict very well is the macroeconomic conditions that are going to occur. The digestion of inventory in the channel and those things, we have some ability to think about a model. But if the world is going to be in a recessionary environment or -- and the effect of that on both semiconductors and IA is a little bit harder for us at this juncture to suss out.

但是我們不能很好地預測的一件事是即將發生的宏觀經濟狀況。在渠道消化庫存之類的東西，我們有一定的能力去思考一個模式。但是，如果世界將處於衰退環境中，或者——在這個關鍵時刻，這對半導體和 IA 的影響對我們來說有點難以確定。

What I did say though is that 12 months is kind of a normal cycle here to go through. So that would suggest come third quarter next year, we should start to see a broader recovery, if it's like anything in the past.

我確實說過，12 個月是一個正常的周期。所以這意味著明年第三季度，我們應該開始看到更廣泛的複蘇，如果它像過去一樣。

And our next question comes from the line of Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的喬摩爾。

Great. Why don't you talk about Memory Test from the perspective of the DRAM and NAND vendors are building a lot of inventory right now? Is that untested and is that -- like as their volume picks up, do you see a recovery in Test volume that maybe helps you next year? And then on the flip side of that, I think you talked a little bit about what the deceleration in WFE might mean, but do you have any kind of sense of what Memory supply does next year above and beyond the DDR5?

偉大的。為什麼不從 DRAM 和 NAND 供應商的角度談談 Memory Test 呢？那是未經測試的嗎？就像他們的交易量增加一樣，您是否看到測試量的恢復可能會在明年對您有所幫助？然後另一方面，我想你談到了 WFE 的減速可能意味著什麼，但你對明年內存供應在 DDR5 之上和之後的表現有任何了解嗎？

Yes. I think DDR5 is the only bright spot next year. The rest is kind of very tenuous. And I would expect the first half of next year, we're going to see other than DDR5 pretty weak demand as people are trying to balance fab capacity, inventory with end-market demand. So I don't -- earlier, I said maybe Memory might -- there's an argument that Memory will hold up next year as a market for Test because of the DDR5 transition, I think that's possible.

是的。我認為DDR5是明年唯一的亮點。其餘的有點非常脆弱。我預計明年上半年，我們將看到除 DDR5 之外的需求相當疲軟，因為人們正試圖平衡晶圓廠產能、庫存和終端市場需求。所以我不 - 早些時候，我說也許內存可能 - 由於 DDR5 過渡，內存明年將作為測試市場保持不變，我認為這是可能的。

I think it's more likely though we see that happen, but NAND fall off a bit stronger. And so a little bit more of a anchor on the market next year for Memory than a balloon because of DDR5. And then we have the specific issue around China, where we've been -- our overall market share in Memory Test is somewhere around 40%. But in China, it's been north of 50%. And this issue with one of our customers in China, which we may be prohibited from selling to is kind of going to be for Teradyne probably a net negative for Memory Test revenue in 2023.

我認為雖然我們看到這種情況發生的可能性更大，但 NAND 的跌幅更大。因此，由於 DDR5，明年內存市場上的錨點比氣球要多一點。然後是中國的具體問題，我們一直在中國——我們在內存測試的整體市場份額約為 40%。但在中國，這一比例已超過 50%。與我們在中國的一位客戶的這個問題，我們可能被禁止出售給泰瑞達，這可能會對 2023 年的內存測試收入產生淨負面影響。

Okay. But on those large inventory builds on the producer balance sheets, is that Die Bank that has yet to be tested? Or is there already some test that you think has occurred on that inventory?

好的。但是，在生產商資產負債表上建立的大量庫存中，是否還有尚未測試的模具庫？還是您認為該庫存已經進行了一些測試？

There is some test that's occurred, but a lot of it is in that sort of Die Bank area, keeping the fabs running is kind of something that makes economic sense. But finishing the product doesn't make sense until the demand materializes.

已經進行了一些測試，但其中很多都在那種模具銀行區域，保持晶圓廠運轉是一種具有經濟意義的事情。但是在需求實現之前完成產品是沒有意義的。

Our next question comes from the line of (technical difficulty)

我們的下一個問題來自（技術難度）

Can you hear me okay?

你能聽到我的聲音嗎？

Yes, we can.

我們可以。

Okay. Great. So I had one clarification and one question. In terms of my clarification, just on the China export control. You talked about the headwind in 2023 being $75 million to $100 million. Just curious how significant China Memory Test was in Q3?

好的。偉大的。所以我有一個澄清和一個問題。就我的澄清而言，只是關於中國的出口管制。您談到 2023 年的逆風為 7500 萬至 1 億美元。只是好奇第三季度的中國記憶測試有多重要？

And I assume that number should be 0 in Q4. Am I thinking about that correctly? And can you speak to the profitability of some of these China Memory customers?

我假設這個數字在第四季度應該是 0。我是否正確地考慮了這一點？您能談談其中一些中國存儲器客戶的盈利能力嗎？

Yes. Well, it's not 0 in Q4 or next year. So that's maybe one comment. The profitability is not distinctively different than any -- than our global margin. So there's no difference there. But there's a portion of the market in China will continue to serve. China overall, I think Sanjay mentioned is roughly 16% -- 15%, 16% of the company's revenue.

是的。嗯，在第四季度或明年它不是 0。所以這可能是一個評論。盈利能力與我們的全球利潤率沒有明顯不同。所以那裡沒有區別。但仍有一部分中國市場將繼續服務。總體而言，我認為 Sanjay 提到的中國大約占公司收入的 16% - 15%，即 16%。

Half of that is multinationals that really are not subject to any restrictions around this set of regulations. So about 8% of our annual sales, let's say, are 2 indigenous Chinese companies. And then roughly half of that might be Memory. And then a fraction of that is this headwind of this one customer.

其中一半是跨國公司，它們確實不受這套法規的任何限制。因此，假設我們年銷售額的 8% 左右是 2 家中國本土公司。然後大約一半可能是內存。然後其中一小部分是這個客戶的逆風。

Okay. Mark, just a quick follow-up. So I meant local China Memory. That should be near 0 or 0 going forward, correct? The multinationals you'll serve.

好的。馬克，只是一個快速的跟進。所以我的意思是當地的中國記憶。未來應該接近 0 或 0，對嗎？您將服務的跨國公司。

We'll serve the multinationals, but there's a portion of the indigenous China Memory market that we still can serve under the current regulation regime.

我們將為跨國公司提供服務，但在目前的監管制度下，我們仍然可以服務於中國本土內存市場的一部分。

Okay. Okay. Got it. And then my question is on the IA side, maybe one for Greg. I realize it's hard to predict what 2023 could look like. But hoping to get your preliminary views there. You talked about labor scarcity outside of Europe being a 5 percentage point headwind. You talked a little bit about some of the idiosyncratic stuff that you're working on in terms of the new product, the higher payload, longer-reach product, you talked about the OEM channel.

好的。好的。知道了。然後我的問題是關於 IA 方面的，也許是 Greg 的問題。我意識到很難預測 2023 年會是什麼樣子。但希望在那裡得到你的初步意見。你談到歐洲以外的勞動力短缺是一個 5 個百分點的逆風。你談到了一些你在新產品、更高有效載荷、更遠距離產品方面正在研究的特殊東西，你談到了 OEM 渠道。

Could those be sort of impactful enough for your growth to accelerate in '23? Or is it a little premature to talk about those things?

這些影響是否足以讓您在 23 年加速增長？還是說這些事情有點為時過早？

So it is a little premature. We haven't fully worked out our complete plans, but I think you have hit some of the major factors that are going to go into that equation. So one thing is that the reason that we are talking about our results in constant currency is that we do expect a more stable FX environment in 2023.

所以有點為時過早。我們還沒有完全制定出我們的完整計劃，但我認為你已經觸及了一些將進入這個等式的主要因素。所以有一件事是，我們談論我們以不變貨幣計算的結果的原因是，我們確實預計 2023 年的外匯環境會更加穩定。

And that alone would add significantly to the growth that we saw in 2022 because that was like a 10-point headwind to where we are. Beyond that, we do expect significant impact from new products, both from UR and from MiR in 2023. And we also are going to continue to grow our complementary channels like OEM at similar rates to what we saw in 2022, but off of a larger base.

僅此一項就會顯著增加我們在 2022 年看到的增長，因為這對我們所處的位置來說就像一個 10 點的逆風。除此之外，我們確實預計 2023 年來自 UR 和 MiR 的新產品將產生重大影響。我們還將繼續以與 2022 年相似的速度發展我們的互補渠道，如 OEM，但規模更大根據。

So overall, they're going to have a greater impact on growth in 2023 than they had in 2022. So in other words, we are expecting these new things to help out with growth. We believe that our distribution partners are going to work on labor scarcity, but we are not counting on them to completely solve it in 2023.

所以總的來說，它們對 2023 年的增長的影響將比 2022 年更大。換句話說，我們期待這些新事物有助於增長。我們相信我們的分銷合作夥伴將致力於解決勞動力短缺問題，但我們並不指望他們在 2023 年徹底解決這個問題。

And our next question comes from the line of Atif Malik with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗的 Atif Malik。

Mark, your comments on next year's end markets, they all make sense, Memory stable on DDR5, Industrial coming down, Mobile improving on the large customer. The only one that I struggled is on the Auto side, the Auto TAM is around $700 million this year from historically $350 million. Now $100 million of that, like you said, is coming from new opportunities in ADAS, silicon carbide, power management.

馬克，你對明年終端市場的評論，它們都很有道理，內存在 DDR5 上穩定，工業在下降，移動在大客戶上有所改善。我唯一苦苦掙扎的是在汽車方面，今年 Auto TAM 的價格約為 7 億美元，而歷史上為 3.5 億美元。現在，正如您所說，其中 1 億美元來自 ADAS、碳化矽、電源管理領域的新機遇。

What about the opportunities outside those areas like won't that see a correction next year if there's a recession?

如果出現經濟衰退，這些領域之外的機會會不會在明年出現修正？

Yes. I think that's likely. You're right. I think some of the things that have contributed to getting the Auto market up to the $700 million TAM level are a lot of these new technologies. But underneath that, there's a kind of core piece of legacy technologies that I would expect would soften as we get out of this sort of frenzy of trying to replenish the supply chain on those parts.

是的。我認為這很可能。你是對的。我認為促使汽車市場達到 7 億美元 TAM 水平的一些因素是很多這些新技術。但在這之下，有一種遺留技術的核心部分，我預計隨著我們擺脫這種試圖補充這些部分的供應鏈的狂熱，它會軟化。

So what I was saying is we don't see that coming in Q1. It's kind of not something we baked into Q1. But for 2023, that underlying -- let's say, legacy piece of Automotive technology is likely to come down.

所以我說的是我們看不到第一季度會出現這種情況。這不是我們在第一季度烘焙的東西。但是到 2023 年，這個潛在的——比如說，傳統的汽車技術可能會下降。

Got it. And then, Sanjay, can you talk about what are the other geographies you're looking at in improving your supply chain resiliency moving out of China?

知道了。然後，Sanjay，您能否談談您在移出中國時正在考慮哪些其他地區來提高您的供應鏈彈性？

Sure. From a manufacturing standpoint, you should think about it from both manufacturing and supply chain, but think about other countries in Southeast Asia, Malaysia, Thailand, and then from an engineering services resiliency, think about Southeast Asia, but also think about other parts of the globe like in Europe.

當然。從製造的角度，你應該從製造和供應鏈兩個方面考慮，但要考慮東南亞其他國家，馬來西亞，泰國，然後從工程服務彈性考慮，考慮東南亞，還要考慮其他部分像歐洲一樣的地球。

And operator, we have time for just one more question, please.

接線員，我們有時間再問一個問題。

Certainly. Our next question comes from the line of Steve Barger with KeyBanc. Pardon me, Steve, please check your mute button. Pardon me, Steve, please check your mute button.

當然。我們的下一個問題來自於 KeyBanc 的 Steve Barger。對不起，史蒂夫，請檢查你的靜音按鈕。對不起，史蒂夫，請檢查你的靜音按鈕。

Okay. I will now turn the call back over to Vice President of Investor Relations, Andy Blanchard for any closing remarks.

好的。我現在將把電話轉回投資者關係副總裁安迪布蘭查德的任何結束語。

Thank you, everyone, for joining us today, and apologies for the technical pause along the way there. We look forward to talking to you in the days and weeks ahead. And certainly, if you have follow-up questions, reach out to me directly. Thanks so much.

謝謝大家今天加入我們，並為沿途的技術暫停錶示歉意。我們期待在未來的幾天和幾週內與您交談。當然，如果您有後續問題，請直接與我聯繫。非常感謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating, and you may now disconnect.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。