泰瑞達 (TER) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Fourth Quarter and Full Year Teradyne Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference may be recorded. (Operator Instructions)

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎來到泰瑞達第四季度和全年收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，今天的會議可能會被錄製。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to hand the conference over to your host today, Andy Blanchard, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想把會議交給今天的主持人，投資者關係副總裁安迪布蘭查德。請繼續。

Thank you, Michelle. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our discussion of Teradyne's most recent financial results. I'm joined this morning by our CEO, Mark Jagiela and our CFO, Sanjay Mehta. Following our opening remarks, we'll provide details of our performance for 2021's fourth quarter and full year, along with our outlook for the first quarter of 2022. The press release containing our fourth quarter results was issued last evening. We're providing slides on the Investor page of the website that may be helpful to you in following the discussion. Replays of this call will be available via the same page after the call ends.

謝謝你，米歇爾。大家早上好，歡迎來到我們關於泰瑞達最新財務業績的討論。今天上午，我們的首席執行官 Mark Jagiela 和首席財務官 Sanjay Mehta 加入了我的行列。在我們的開場白之後，我們將提供 2021 年第四季度和全年業績的詳細信息，以及我們對 2022 年第一季度的展望。包含我們第四季度業績的新聞稿於昨晚發布。我們在網站的投資者頁面上提供了幻燈片，可能對您進行討論有所幫助。通話結束後，將通過同一頁面重播此通話。

The matters that we discuss today will include forward-looking statements that involve risk factors that could cause Teradyne's results to differ materially from management's current expectations. We encourage you to review the safe harbor statement contained in the earnings release as well as our most recent SEC filings. Additionally, those forward-looking statements are made as of today, and we make no obligation to update them as a result of developments occurring after this call.

我們今天討論的事項將包括涉及風險因素的前瞻性陳述，這些風險因素可能導致泰瑞達的業績與管理層當前的預期存在重大差異。我們鼓勵您查看收益發布中包含的安全港聲明以及我們最近提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件。此外，這些前瞻性陳述是在今天做出的，我們沒有義務因為這次電話會議後發生的事態發展而對其進行更新。

During today's call, we'll make reference to non-GAAP financial measures. We've posted additional information concerning these non-GAAP financial measures, including reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure where available, on the Investor page of our website.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將參考非 GAAP 財務指標。我們已經在我們網站的投資者頁面上發布了有關這些非公認會計原則財務指標的更多信息，包括與最直接可比的公認會計原則財務指標的對賬。

Looking ahead between now and our next earnings call, Teradyne will be participating in technology or industrial-focused investor conferences hosted by Citi, Morgan Stanley, and Susquehanna.

展望從現在到我們的下一次財報電話會議，泰瑞達將參加由花旗、摩根士丹利和 Susquehanna 主辦的以技術或工業為重點的投資者會議。

Now let's get on with the rest of the agenda. First, Mark will comment on our recent results and the market conditions as we enter the new year. Sanjay will then offer more details on our results along with our guidance for the first quarter. We'll then answer your questions. And this call is scheduled for 1 hour.

現在讓我們繼續議程的其餘部分。首先，馬克將在我們進入新的一年時評論我們最近的業績和市場狀況。然後，桑傑將提供有關我們業績的更多細節以及我們對第一季度的指導。然後，我們將回答您的問題。這個電話預定了1小時。

Mark?

標記？

Good morning, and thanks for joining us. In our call today, I'll summarize 2001's (sic) [2021's] 4th quarter and the full year and then comment on our early view of 2022. Sanjay will then provide the financial details and review our updated earnings model and capital allocation plans.

早上好，感謝您加入我們。在我們今天的電話會議中，我將總結 2001 年（原文如此）[2021 年] 第 4 季度和全年，然後評論我們對 2022 年的早期看法。桑傑隨後將提供財務細節並審查我們更新的收益模型和資本分配計劃。

While we forecast 2022 to be another solid year for Teradyne, overall sales will likely decline in the first half as we believe SOC test sales will be impacted by modest complexity growth in our largest market, as the jump to 3-nanometer production is pushed to 2023. More on that in a minute.

雖然我們預計 2022 年對泰瑞達來說將是又一個穩健的一年，但上半年的整體銷售額可能會下降，因為我們認為 SOC 測試銷售將受到我們最大市場的適度複雜性增長的影響，因為向 3 納米生產的跳躍被推到2023. 稍後會詳細介紹。

Recapping 2021. We finished the year strong, bringing full year sales, non-GAAP earnings growth to 19%, and sales growth to -- sorry, the sales growth of 19%, and GAAP earnings growth to 29%, respectively. 2021's performance was a result of broad-based growth across our Test and IA businesses. Semi Test sales grew about 17%, with our UltraFLEX family contributing to the expansion into the compute sector, and Eagle product lines serving the automotive and analog industrial sectors growing nearly 90%. For 2021, we estimate the SOC market was about $4.8 billion, up from $3.6 billion in 2020, which puts our market share at about 46% for the year.

回顧 2021 年。我們在這一年結束時表現強勁，全年銷售額、非 GAAP 收益增長至 19%，銷售額增長至 - 抱歉，銷售額增長 19% 和 GAAP 收益增長至 29%，分別。 2021 年的業績是我們測試和 IA 業務廣泛增長的結果。 Semi Test 的銷售額增長了約 17%，我們的 UltraFLEX 系列有助於擴展到計算領域，而服務於汽車和模擬工業領域的 Eagle 產品線增長了近 90%。到 2021 年，我們估計 SOC 市場約為 48 億美元，高於 2020 年的 36 億美元，這使我們今年的市場份額約為 46%。

The memory market in 2021 was about flat with 2020 at approximately $1 billion. Our Magnum family continues to shine in the NAND segment, and we're reinforcing our position in the DRAM segment as the industry prepares for LPDDR5 and DDR5 ramps in 2022 and beyond. Our share remains at about 40%.

2021 年的內存市場與 2020 年大致持平，約為 10 億美元。我們的 Magnum 系列繼續在 NAND 領域大放異彩，我們正在鞏固我們在 DRAM 領域的地位，因為該行業為 2022 年及以後的 LPDDR5 和 DDR5 坡道做準備。我們的份額保持在 40% 左右。

LitePoint's wireless test business had a great year, growing 25% from 2020. The global demand for connecting and tracking, just about everything, machines, materials, and people is nearly insatiable. LitePoint is well aligned to this trend with products that simplify testing of the expanding range of wireless standards. Whether in networking with WiFi 6E and 7, in location tracking with ultra-wideband, in cellular with 5G, or numerous other standards, the rate of technology change continues unabated, which is great for our business.

LitePoint 的無線測試業務取得了豐碩的一年，比 2020 年增長了 25%。全球對連接和跟踪的需求幾乎無法滿足，包括機器、材料和人員。 LitePoint 很好地順應了這一趨勢，其產品簡化了不斷擴大的無線標準範圍的測試。無論是使用 WiFi 6E 和 7 進行聯網、使用超寬帶進行位置跟踪、使用 5G 進行蜂窩網絡還是眾多其他標準，技術變革的速度都在持續有增無減，這對我們的業務非常有利。

Moving to our Industrial Automation business. At UR, sales were up 41% from 2020. We continue to expand the number of UR+ partners and certified plug-and-play apps with assembly, machine tending and palletizing among the most popular of the more than 375 available apps. We also continue to broaden our reach beyond existing markets, often with OEM partners. One exceptional example is our expansion into welding applications, where we finished the year with a growth of more than 3x above 2020 levels. Welding applications now account for more than 6% of UR sales.

轉向我們的工業自動化業務。在 UR，銷售額比 2020 年增長了 41%。我們繼續擴大 UR+ 合作夥伴和經過認證的即插即用應用程序的數量，其中包括 375 多個可用應用程序中最受歡迎的裝配、機器管理和碼垛應用程序。我們還繼續將我們的業務範圍擴大到現有市場之外，通常與 OEM 合作夥伴合作。一個特殊的例子是我們向焊接應用領域的擴張，我們在這一年的增長比 2020 年的水平高出 3 倍以上。焊接應用現在佔 UR 銷售額的 6% 以上。

At MiR, full year sales grew 42% from 2020 on the strength of our new higher payload MiR250, 600 and 1,350 kilogram AMRs. It's also notable that the value of MiR AMRs with advanced fleet management software is amplified as the size of the robot fleet grows. We saw this play out last year with large account sales, those with the potential to deploy hundreds of units, growing nearly 50% faster than the installed base at large.

在 MiR，得益於我們新的更高有效載荷 MiR250、600 和 1,350 公斤 AMR，全年銷售額比 2020 年增長了 42%。同樣值得注意的是，配備先進車隊管理軟件的 MiR AMR 的價值隨著機器人車隊規模的增長而擴大。去年，我們看到了大客戶銷售的結果，那些有可能部署數百個單位的客戶，其增長速度比整個安裝基數快近 50%。

Looking ahead to 2022, the long-term drivers that power our growth in Test and Industrial Automation are strong. In fact, as you will hear from Sanjay, our updated 2024 earnings model reflects an expected higher growth in sales and profits for both areas. However, in 2022, while we expect our IA business to power along with 35%-plus growth, we see our SOC business likely contracting during the year as the shift to 3-nanometer volume production is pushed to 2023. You can begin to see some of this effect in our 1Q guidance as we usually see the beginnings of our summer ramp in March.

展望 2022 年，推動我們在測試和工業自動化領域增長的長期驅動力非常強勁。事實上，正如您從 Sanjay 那裡聽到的那樣，我們更新的 2024 年盈利模型反映了這兩個領域的銷售額和利潤預期會有更高的增長。然而，在 2022 年，雖然我們預計我們的 IA 業務將實現 35% 以上的增長，但隨著向 3 納米量產的轉變被推到 2023 年，我們認為我們的 SOC 業務可能會在年內收縮。您可以開始看到我們的 1Q 指導中的一些影響，因為我們通常在 3 月份看到我們的夏季坡道開始。

We expect 2Q to show similar effects as it's usually our peak tooling period for our largest market. As a result, we are modeling first half sales down 15% to 20%. We don't expect the impact of this to extend into second half. We expect demand to accelerate again in 2023 as we begin to see the complexity growth related to investments for 3-nanometer gate-all-around and advanced packaging. Overall, we expect the 2022 SOC market to be similar in size to 2021 at approximately $4.6 billion to $5 billion.

我們預計第二季度將顯示出類似的影響，因為它通常是我們最大市場的高峰工具期。因此，我們預計上半年銷售額將下降 15% 至 20%。我們預計這種影響不會延續到下半年。我們預計 2023 年需求將再次加速，因為我們開始看到與 3 納米全柵極和先進封裝的投資相關的複雜性增長。總體而言，我們預計 2022 年 SOC 市場的規模將與 2021 年相似，約為 46 億至 50 億美元。

Shifting to memory test. We expect the market in 2022 to be in the $900 million to $1.1 billion range with a midpoint that's similar to 2021. We expect spending will be weighted toward DRAM as LPDDR5 adoption expands and DDR5 for server applications ramp. In the past, a shift to spending in DRAM would be a significant headwind for us, but we expect we'll maintain our share at about 40% in 2022 as our Magnum EPIC DRAM tester grows in market popularity.

轉移到記憶測試。我們預計 2022 年的市場將在 9 億美元至 11 億美元之間，中間值與 2021 年相似。我們預計隨著 LPDDR5 採用的擴大和 DDR5 用於服務器應用程序的增加，支出將集中在 DRAM 上。過去，轉向 DRAM 支出對我們來說是一個重大阻力，但我們預計，隨著我們的 Magnum EPIC DRAM 測試儀在市場上的普及，我們將在 2022 年將我們的份額保持在 40% 左右。

In System Test, after 5 years of high growth driven by the Storage Test product line, we expect 2022 to be a digestion year with sales softening slightly. Wireless Test at LitePoint, however, is expected to fill that revenue gap, so we expect the combined System Test and Wireless Test will be about flat with 2021.

在 System Test 方面，在 Storage Test 產品線推動 5 年高增長後，我們預計 2022 年將是消化年，銷售略有疲軟。然而，LitePoint 的無線測試預計將填補這一收入差距，因此我們預計系統測試和無線測試的合併將與 2021 年持平。

Shifting from Test to Industrial Automation. Our business outlook is brighter than ever. As I noted in our last call, the penetration rate of both collaborative robots and autonomous mobile robots is under 3%. The economic environment is favorable with worker shortages, the movement of production capacity closer to end markets, and a relentless drive for higher quality and safer operations, all helping to drive demand. The opportunity in front of us is immense, and we are investing to exploit it to the fullest.

從測試轉向工業自動化。我們的業務前景比以往任何時候都更加光明。正如我在上次電話會議中指出的那樣，協作機器人和自主移動機器人的滲透率均低於 3%。經濟環境有利，工人短缺、產能向終端市場轉移，以及對更高質量和更安全運營的不懈追求，所有這些都有助於推動需求。我們面前的機會是巨大的，我們正在投資以充分利用它。

At the IA segment level, we've increased our long-term revenue growth rate and expect our sales in 2022 to grow more than 35% off of 2021. Sanjay will provide the long-term modeling details, but the key point is the investments we've made and will continue to make position us for both short- and long-term success in this expanding market.

在 IA 部門層面，我們提高了長期收入增長率，預計 2022 年的銷售額將比 2021 年增長 35% 以上。Sanjay 將提供長期建模細節，但關鍵是投資我們已經並將繼續為我們在這個不斷擴大的市場中的短期和長期成功奠定基礎。

Expanding OEM relationships and served markets is a key part of our strategy. Like the welding initiative that is bearing fruit, we have several others in flight. One example is in e-commerce. One of our partners, Nimble Robotics, uses AI, unique grippers, and clever software on our UR cobot platform to pick consumer goods and high-volume warehouse operations for numerous national brands. You may have seen the recent Wall Street Journal article complete with photos of the solution in action. Their innovative solution, dubbed 'goods to robot', complements automated storage and retrieval systems widely used in e-commerce. Our cobot ease of use and durability are a natural for this application. Well over 15 million items across 500,000 unique products have been picked to date as Nimble executes an ambitious growth plan in the e-commerce space.

擴大 OEM 關係和服務市場是我們戰略的關鍵部分。就像正在取得成果的焊接計劃一樣，我們還有其他幾個計劃在進行中。一個例子是電子商務。我們的合作夥伴之一 Nimble Robotics 在我們的 UR 協作機器人平台上使用 AI、獨特的抓手和智能軟件為眾多民族品牌挑選消費品和大容量倉庫作業。您可能已經看過《華爾街日報》最近的文章，其中包含正在運行的解決方案的照片。他們的創新解決方案被稱為“貨物到機器人”，補充了電子商務中廣泛使用的自動存儲和檢索系統。我們的協作機器人易用性和耐用性是該應用程序的自然之選。迄今為止，隨著 Nimble 在電子商務領域執行雄心勃勃的增長計劃，超過 500,000 種獨特產品中的超過 1500 萬件商品被挑選出來。

Another driver of growth in IA has been the growing use of UR cobots to improve the competitiveness of local manufacturing to support reshoring of production. Pentik, a Finnish maker of high-quality ceramics, is a good example. They've added automation to allow skilled craftspeople to focus on high-volume and high-value tasks, while UR cobots do the repetitive and physically demanding ones, such as glazing and finishing of ceramics.

IA 增長的另一個驅動力是越來越多地使用 UR 協作機器人來提高本地製造業的競爭力，以支持生產回流。芬蘭優質陶瓷製造商 Pentik 就是一個很好的例子。他們增加了自動化，讓熟練的工匠能夠專注於大批量和高價值的任務，而 UR 協作機器人則負責重複性和體力要求高的任務，例如陶瓷的上釉和精加工。

To summarize, 2021 was another year of impressive growth at Teradyne and caps a 5-year stretch where sales and non-GAAP earnings have grown at a compounded rate of 16% and 32%, respectively. As we've said before, we've managed the business to a trend line model. Our updated 2024 earnings model shows improved growth trend lines reflecting our increasing confidence in the business. These projections are not hockey sticks. They are consistent with our past performance and correlated to investment trends in semiconductor capacity and automation market drivers. Along the way, we expect some years will perform above the trend line and other years below. In Test, 2020 and 2021 were above trend line years, while 2022 will likely be below.

總而言之，2021 年是泰瑞達又一個令人印象深刻的增長年，並且在 5 年的時間裡，銷售額和非公認會計準則收益分別以 16% 和 32% 的複合增長率增長。正如我們之前所說，我們已將業務管理為趨勢線模型。我們更新的 2024 年收益模型顯示增長趨勢線有所改善，反映了我們對業務的信心增強。這些預測不是曲棍球棒。它們與我們過去的表現一致，並與半導體產能和自動化市場驅動因素的投資趨勢相關。在此過程中，我們預計一些年份將在趨勢線上方表現，而其他年份將低於趨勢線。在測試中，2020 年和 2021 年高於趨勢線年份，而 2022 年可能低於趨勢線年份。

These year-to-year swings in customer buying patterns are a part of our market dynamics. Our underlying business model with outsourced manufacturing in Test is designed to efficiently absorb these dynamics. Also, our good and improving gross margins give us increasing leverage within this dynamic. The growth in volume and complexity of semiconductors that propels the test market is stronger than ever. Our Industrial Automation portfolio is well positioned against macro trends and back to high growth. All these dynamics should net out to attractive midterm growth of both sales and earnings.

這些客戶購買模式的逐年波動是我們市場動態的一部分。我們在 Test 中採用外包製造的基本商業模式旨在有效吸收這些動態。此外，我們良好且不斷提高的毛利率使我們在這種動態中具有越來越大的影響力。推動測試市場的半導體數量和復雜性的增長比以往任何時候都更加強勁。我們的工業自動化產品組合在宏觀趨勢和高增長方面處於有利地位。所有這些動態都應抵消銷售和收益的有吸引力的中期增長。

With that, I turn it over to Sanjay for more details. Sanjay?

有了這個，我把它交給桑傑了解更多細節。桑傑？

Thank you, Mark. Good morning, everyone. Today, I'll cover the financial highlights of Q4 and review the financial details of 2021. Looking forward, I'll provide our Q1 outlook and update our midterm earnings model and our capital allocation plans.

謝謝你，馬克。大家，早安。今天，我將介紹第四季度的財務亮點並回顧 2021 年的財務細節。展望未來，我將提供第一季度的展望，並更新我們的中期收益模型和資本配置計劃。

Now to Q4. Revenues were $885 million, and we delivered a non-GAAP operating profit of 31% and EPS of $1.37. Semi Test revenue of $592 million was strong across the board with notable demand for apps processor, and RF test, and SOC, and higher speed flash test in memory. System Test group had revenue of $127 million, up 23% year-over-year, driven by higher sales in Storage Test and defense and aerospace. LitePoint revenue of $52 million was up over 31% and from the year-ago period on WiFi 6E and early WiFi 7 test demand. Industrial Automation revenue of $113 million was up 23% from the fourth quarter of last year on strong demand at both UR and MiR.

現在到第四季度。收入為 8.85 億美元，非公認會計準則營業利潤為 31%，每股收益為 1.37 美元。 Semi Test 收入為 5.92 億美元，整體強勁，對應用處理器、RF 測試和 SOC 以及內存中更高速閃存測試的需求顯著。系統測試集團的收入為 1.27 億美元，同比增長 23%，這主要得益於存儲測試、國防和航空航天領域的銷售額增長。由於 WiFi 6E 和早期 WiFi 7 測試需求，LitePoint 收入 5200 萬美元，同比增長 31% 以上。由於 UR 和 MiR 的強勁需求，工業自動化收入為 1.13 億美元，比去年第四季度增長 23%。

Non-GAAP gross margins were 59.5%, on plan and down quarter-over-quarter due to lower volume and product mix. You'll see our non-GAAP operating expenses were up $11 million to $253 million from the third quarter due primarily to ongoing Industrial Automation investments. We generated $302 million in free cash in the fourth quarter. The non-GAAP tax rate, excluding discrete items for the quarter, was 13.6%, and on a GAAP basis was 14.75%. For the full year, it was 14.5% on a non-GAAP basis and 14.75% on a GAAP basis.

非美國通用會計準則毛利率為 59.5%，按計劃計算，由於銷量和產品組合下降，環比下降。您會看到我們的非公認會計原則運營費用比第三季度增加了 1100 萬美元，達到 2.53 億美元，這主要是由於正在進行的工業自動化投資。我們在第四季度產生了 3.02 億美元的自由現金。本季度不包括離散項目的非公認會計原則稅率為 13.6%，按公認會計原則計算為 14.75%。全年按非公認會計原則計算為 14.5%，按公認會計原則計算為 14.75%。

We ended the year with cash and marketable securities of $1.5 billion. Regarding debt to date, $343 million of our convertible bond has been redeemed early and repaid. We have a remaining face value of $117 million.

我們以 15 億美元的現金和有價證券結束了這一年。關於迄今為止的債務，我們已提前贖回並償還了 3.43 億美元的可轉換債券。我們的剩餘面值為 1.17 億美元。

Turning to the full year results of 2021. Teradyne revenues of $3.7 billion grew $581 million or 19% year-over-year. $485 million of the growth was from our Test portfolio, while IA delivered $96 million of growth. We had one customer that directly or indirectly drove approximately 19% of our revenue in 2021. Gross margins for the year were 59.6%, and operating profit was 33%, up from 57.2% and 30%, respectively, in 2020. Non-GAAP EPS was $5.98, a 29% increase over 2020.We generated $966 million in free cash in 2021 and returned $666 million through share repurchases and dividends.

談到 2021 年的全年業績。泰瑞達 37 億美元的收入同比增長 5.81 億美元或 19%。 4.85 億美元的增長來自我們的測試產品組合，而 IA 實現了 9600 萬美元的增長。 2021 年，我們有一個客戶直接或間接推動了我們約 19% 的收入。全年毛利率為 59.6%，營業利潤為 33%，分別高於 2020 年的 57.2% 和 30%。非公認會計原則每股收益為 5.98 美元，比 2020 年增長 29%。我們在 2021 年產生了 9.66 億美元的自由現金，並通過股票回購和股息返還了 6.66 億美元。

Looking more closely at the components of 2021 revenue growth. As Mark outlined, SOC test revenues grew $371 million or 20% on strength in all market segments, but with particular growth in the compute, industrial, and automotive markets. In memory, revenues were $396 million, up 3%. NAND test demand drove the growth in 2021. In System Test sales, sales grew for the fifth consecutive year to $468 million, up 14% from 2020. All subsegments of System Test grew in 2021 with Storage Test delivering the largest increase moving from $242 million in 2020 to $288 million in 2021.

更仔細地研究 2021 年收入增長的組成部分。正如 Mark 所述，SOC 測試收入在所有細分市場中增長了 3.71 億美元或 20%，但在計算、工業和汽車市場的增長尤為明顯。在內存方面，收入為 3.96 億美元，增長 3%。 NAND 測試需求推動了 2021 年的增長。在系統測試銷售額中，銷售額連續第五年增長至 4.68 億美元，比 2020 年增長 14%。系統測試的所有子領域在 2021 年都有所增長，其中存儲測試的增幅最大，從 2.42 億美元2020 年到 2021 年達到 2.88 億美元。

LitePoint is also on an impressive growth path. Sales increased to $217 million, 25% above 2020 and has grown at an 18% CAGR since 2016. Growth drivers included the production ramp of WiFi 6E, WiFi 7 engineering systems and UWB expansion. It's notable that UWB is early in its market penetration, and we expect a long-term growth trajectory as new applications for this technology emerge.

LitePoint 也處於令人印象深刻的增長道路上。銷售額增至 2.17 億美元，比 2020 年增長 25%，自 2016 年以來以 18% 的複合年增長率增長。增長驅動因素包括 WiFi 6E、WiFi 7 工程系統和 UWB 擴展的產量增長。值得注意的是，UWB 處於其市場滲透的早期階段，隨著該技術的新應用的出現，我們預計將出現長期增長軌跡。

In 2021, IA revenue was $376 million, up 34% from 2020's $280 million level. UR grew 41% to $311 million, while MiR grew 42% to $64 million.

2021 年，IA 收入為 3.76 億美元，比 2020 年的 2.8 億美元增長 34%。 UR 增長 41% 至 3.11 億美元，而 MiR 增長 42% 至 6400 萬美元。

AutoGuide sales were under $2 million in 2021 as we continue to reposition that group for sustainable long-term growth. In 2021, we managed through numerous supply constraints at UR and MiR without a material impact on sales. We expect those constraints to become more severe and expect they may impact the timing of some shipments in the first half of 2022. We've considered that in our guidance.

2021 年 AutoGuide 的銷售額低於 200 萬美元，因為我們繼續重新定位該集團以實現可持續的長期增長。 2021 年，我們克服了 UR 和 MiR 的眾多供應限制，而對銷售沒有重大影響。我們預計這些限制將變得更加嚴重，並預計它們可能會影響 2022 年上半年某些發貨的時間。我們已在我們的指導中考慮了這一點。

Now to our outlook for Q1. Sales are expected to be between $700 million and 777 -- sales are expected to be between $700 million and $770 million. Non-GAAP EPS range of $0.76 to $0.98 on 175 million diluted shares. First quarter guidance excludes the amortization of acquired intangibles, and a noncash imputed interest on the convertible debt. First quarter gross margins are estimated at 58.5% and 59.5%, first quarter OpEx running at 33% to 36% of first quarter sales. The non-GAAP operating profit rate at the midpoint of our first quarter guidance is 24%.

現在來看我們對第一季度的展望。銷售額預計在 7 億美元至 777 美元之間——銷售額預計在 7 億美元至 7.7 億美元之間。 1.75 億股稀釋後的非公認會計原則每股收益為 0.76 美元至 0.98 美元。第一季度指引不包括所購無形資產的攤銷以及可轉換債務的非現金推算利息。第一季度毛利率估計為 58.5% 和 59.5%，第一季度運營支出佔第一季度銷售額的 33% 至 36%。我們第一季度指引中點的非公認會計原則營業利潤率為 24%。

Looking at 2022. Our first half 2022 outlook is down from 2021. This will be felt in the first and second quarters with expected Q2 company sales to be about 25% lower than Q2 '21 levels.

展望 2022 年。我們對 2022 年上半年的展望低於 2021 年。這將在第一和第二季度感受到，預計第二季度公司銷售額將比 21 年第二季度的水平低 25% 左右。

Regarding our OpEx plans for 2022. OpEx growth of 11% to 13% is expected with the majority of the incremental growth in IA. This will likely put our OpEx above model in 2022 before coming back to model in '23. The OpEx investment this year is targeted at R&D to improve ease of use, broaden our robot product lines and strengthen our go-to-market capabilities, all in support of long-term sales and earnings growth.

關於我們 2022 年的運營支出計劃。預計運營支出將增長 11% 至 13%，其中大部分增量增長來自 IA。這可能會使我們的運營支出在 2022 年高於模型，然後在 23 年回歸模型。今年 OpEx 投資的目標是研發，以提高易用性、拓寬我們的機器人產品線並加強我們的上市能力，所有這些都是為了支持長期銷售和盈利增長。

Turning to capital expenditures. We expect CapEx to be approximately $160 million. For 2022, our GAAP and non-GAAP tax rate is estimated at 15% based on current tax laws.

轉向資本支出。我們預計資本支出約為 1.6 億美元。根據現行稅法，2022 年我們的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 稅率估計為 15%。

Moving to our earnings model. We expect Test and IA growth will drive 2024 company revenue to $4.9 billion, and non-GAAP EPS to $8 at the midpoint of our updated model. Gross margin is estimated at 59% to 60%, a 100 basis point increase from the prior model and is based on product mix and operating leverage from higher revenue. OpEx as a percent of sales will decline to 26% to 28%, and non-GAAP operating margin expected will be 31% to 34%. The model assumes current tax laws. As shown on the supporting slide, the new model is in line with the trend line performance.

轉向我們的盈利模式。我們預計，在我們更新模型的中點，測試和 IA 的增長將推動 2024 年公司收入達到 49 億美元，非 GAAP 每股收益達到 8 美元。毛利率估計為 59% 至 60%，比之前的模型增加了 100 個基點，並且基於產品組合和更高收入的運營槓桿。運營支出佔銷售額的百分比將下降至 26% 至 28%，非 GAAP 營業利潤率預計為 31% 至 34%。該模型假設現行稅法。如支持幻燈片所示，新模型符合趨勢線表現。

Now let me provide a little color. With 2021 non-GAAP EPS of $5.98, we've achieved our previous 2024 earnings model 3 years early on the strength of our Test businesses. As we've done in the past, when building our earnings model, we consider the year-on-year demand swings that occur in both Test and IA, but we evaluate our growth on a trend line versus any specific year. Therefore, as in past models, we use the average of 2020 and 2021 revenue as the baseline for our projections. From that baseline, we expect Test revenue to grow at 7% to 11% compounded and IA revenues to grow 32% to 45% through 2024. Both growth rates are significant increases, both in absolute and relative terms from our earlier model.

現在讓我提供一點顏色。憑藉 5.98 美元的 2021 年非 GAAP 每股收益，我們憑藉測試業務的實力提前 3 年實現了之前的 2024 年盈利模型。正如我們過去所做的那樣，在構建我們的收益模型時，我們會考慮測試和 IA 中發生的同比需求波動，但我們會根據趨勢線與任何特定年份評估我們的增長。因此，與過去的模型一樣，我們使用 2020 年和 2021 年的平均收入作為我們預測的基準。從該基線開始，我們預計到 2024 年，測試收入複合增長 7% 至 11%，IA 收入增長 32% 至 45%。與我們之前的模型相比，無論是絕對還是相對而言，這兩種增長率都顯著增長。

In Semi Test, we expect long-term growth will be driven by the steady increase in device complexity across our businesses along with high single-digit semiconductor unit growth. The transition to 3-nanometer and gate-all-around technologies will drive complexity growth and higher transistor densities, increased test data collection for process yield learning and longer test times.

在 Semi Test 中，我們預計長期增長將由我們業務中設備複雜性的穩步增加以及高個位數的半導體單位增長推動。向 3 納米和全柵極技術的過渡將推動複雜性增長和更高的晶體管密度，增加用於工藝良率學習的測試數據收集和更長的測試時間。

The complexity point is illustrated by looking at the recent market size trends. When taking an average of 2018 and 2019, the ATE market size was approximately $4 billion. In '21 and '22, the average will be approximately $6 billion. Our earnings model assumes continued growth in the ATE market, and we believe WFE CapEx is a leading indicator of future test demand. This capacity is being put in place to service favorable semiconductor end market trends.

通過查看最近的市場規模趨勢來說明復雜性點。取 2018 年和 2019 年的平均值，ATE 市場規模約為 40 億美元。在 21 年和 22 年，平均將約為 60 億美元。我們的盈利模型假設 ATE 市場持續增長，我們認為 WFE 資本支出是未來測試需求的領先指標。這種能力正在到位，以服務於有利的半導體終端市場趨勢。

First, the compute market is benefiting from the growth of both x86 and ARM-based solutions in higher-performing solutions at a faster cadence than in the past. The ARM solutions include new hyperscale applications along with AI devices for the data center and edge compute. Second, automotive market has elevated to a higher level. Increases in electric and autonomous driving are pushing the growth in complexity and number of chips per car. Third, the analog industrial end market is expected to continue to operate at a higher level as the digitization of industry continues to broaden.

首先，計算市場正受益於 x86 和基於 ARM 的解決方案在更高性能的解決方案中以比過去更快的節奏增長。 ARM 解決方案包括新的超大規模應用程序以及用於數據中心和邊緣計算的 AI 設備。二是汽車市場邁上新台階。電動和自動駕駛的增加正在推動每輛車的複雜性和芯片數量的增長。第三，隨著工業數字化的不斷拓寬，模擬工業終端市場有望繼續在更高水平上運行。

In IA, we're attacking an attractive and sustainable long-term growth opportunity. The market penetration of cobots and autonomous mobile robots remains below 3%, while the range of applications they economically serve continues to expand. Our strategy is to drive penetration higher in existing markets, and grow the number of new applications in new industry verticals.

在 IA，我們正在尋找一個有吸引力且可持續的長期增長機會。協作機器人和自主移動機器人的市場滲透率仍低於 3%，而它們經濟服務的應用範圍繼續擴大。我們的戰略是提高現有市場的滲透率，並在新的垂直行業增加新應用的數量。

To enable this strategy, we continue to lean into our OpEx investments. We'll operate the IA business with a target operating margin of 5% to 15%, while we invest to drive growth and reinforce our competitive position. We don't expect the growth rate to moderate in the midterm. But at the point in the future that it does, we'll dial back the OpEx growth and expect operating margins above 20%. In 2022, we expect we'll operate towards the low end of the 5% to 15% range.

為了實現這一戰略，我們繼續依靠我們的運營支出投資。我們將以 5% 至 15% 的目標營業利潤率運營 IA 業務，同時我們將投資以推動增長並加強我們的競爭地位。我們預計中期增長率不會放緩。但在未來的某個時刻，我們將回撥運營支出增長，並預計營業利潤率將超過 20%。到 2022 年，我們預計我們將在 5% 至 15% 範圍的低端運行。

Shifting to capital allocation. We'll continue our balanced strategy. This year, we'll increase our quarterly dividend by 10% to $0.11 per share in 2022.

轉向資本配置。我們將繼續我們的平衡策略。今年，我們將在 2022 年將季度股息提高 10% 至每股 0.11 美元。

Regarding our share repurchases. In 2021, we bought back [4] million shares for $600 million at an average price of $125.74. In 2022, we expect a minimum of $750 million of repurchases, reflecting our confidence in our operating model and the end markets we serve.

關於我們的股票回購。 2021 年，我們以 125.74 美元的平均價格以 6 億美元的價格回購了 [4] 萬股股票。 2022 年，我們預計至少有 7.5 億美元的回購，這反映了我們對我們的運營模式和我們服務的終端市場的信心。

In summary, 2021 was a record year for sales and earnings. Our global team continued to deliver extraordinary results in a challenging environment. The team's success in balancing customer demand and business needs amidst a constantly changing collection of pandemic-induced constraints was impressive. As we look ahead, long-term growth trends in our end markets remain strong and we've updated our earning model to reflect that outlook. While we expect 2022 will be below the long-term revenue and earnings growth trend lines, we're confident in the long-term trends in our markets and our ability to thrive in them.

總之，2021 年是銷售額和收益創紀錄的一年。我們的全球團隊在充滿挑戰的環境中繼續取得非凡的成果。該團隊在不斷變化的大流行引發的限制條件中平衡客戶需求和業務需求方面的成功令人印象深刻。展望未來，我們終端市場的長期增長趨勢依然強勁，我們更新了盈利模型以反映這一前景。雖然我們預計 2022 年將低於長期收入和盈利增長趨勢線，但我們對市場的長期趨勢以及我們在其中茁壯成長的能力充滿信心。

With that, I'll turn things back to Andy.

有了這個，我會把事情轉回到安迪身上。

Thanks, Sanjay. Michelle, we'd now like to take some questions. (Operator Instructions) Thank you.

謝謝，桑傑。米歇爾，我們現在想回答一些問題。 （操作員說明）謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from the line of Mehdi Hosseini with SIG.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

I think it would be great if you could give us some more detail as it relates to your largest customer. Your commentary on 2021 and 19% contribution is insightful, but given your guide for '22, you suggest that we're in a 2-year digestion period. I understand the 3-nanometer, which has been known for 6 months, but I think expectation was for higher unit shipment for that particular customer to make up for push out in 3-nanometer, and it seems like that's not enough. And again, we go back to 2-year digestion and I am wondering if you can comment on what I just said and I have a follow-up.

我認為如果您能向我們提供更多與您最大客戶相關的詳細信息，那就太好了。您對 2021 年和 19% 貢獻的評論很有見地，但鑑於您對 22 年的指導，您建議我們處於 2 年的消化期。我了解 3 納米，這已經有 6 個月的歷史了，但我認為該特定客戶的預期是更高的單位出貨量來彌補 3 納米的推出，這似乎還不夠。再一次，我們回到 2 年的消化，我想知道你是否可以評論我剛才所說的，我有一個跟進。

Sure, Mehdi. Of course, I'm not going to divulge too much about our specific customer because that wouldn't be appropriate, but I'll give you some additional color.

當然，邁赫迪。當然，我不會過多地透露我們的特定客戶，因為那不合適，但我會給你一些額外的顏色。

So I wouldn't call last year a digestion period, first of all. Last year, we had tremendous growth outside of that concentration, which sort of brought their portion of our revenue from the low 20s down below 20%. So it's really growth elsewhere that drove them down a bit versus digestion. The phenomena this year is something that has been in -- whether -- we attribute it to a variety of things such as complexity growth due to unit volume. I think I don't want to comment too much about that because, again, it gets into some proprietary information. But the latest news we have is that, as we've indicated, there will be a pretty significant reduction here in the first half of the year, which is usually the big ramp of tooling for the fall launch of new products.

因此，首先，我不會將去年稱為消化期。去年，我們在這種集中度之外取得了巨大的增長，這使得他們在我們收入中的份額從 20 年代低點下降到 20% 以下。因此，與消化相比，其他地方的增長確實使它們下降了一點。今年的現像一直存在 - 無論 - 我們將其歸因於各種因素，例如由於單位數量導致的複雜性增長。我想我不想對此發表太多評論，因為它再次涉及一些專有信息。但我們得到的最新消息是，正如我們所指出的，今年上半年這裡將出現相當顯著的減少，這通常是秋季推出新產品的工具的大坡度。

And we've quantified that as best we can. The second half we don't see. But typically, tooling starts in March. It peaks in the second quarter and a little bit dribbles into July. So that's where we'll feel the impact.

我們已經盡可能地量化了這一點。下半場我們看不到。但通常情況下，工具從 3 月開始。它在第二季度達到頂峰，並在 7 月稍稍運球。所以這就是我們會感受到影響的地方。

Got it. And just a quick follow-up on IA. And Sanjay mentioned that for '22, operating margin is targeted at 5% at the low end. Perhaps you can give us some color on the ROIC difference between IA and automated test. And what is it that you're looking at in the longer term that would make a continued OpEx investment in IA attractive and perhaps maybe ROIC or some other metrics could help us to better think about the investment that you're making?

知道了。並且只是對 IA 的快速跟進。桑傑提到，對於 22 年，低端的營業利潤率目標為 5%。也許你可以給我們一些關於 IA 和自動化測試之間的 ROIC 差異的顏色。從長遠來看，您認為什麼會使對 IA 的持續 OpEx 投資具有吸引力，也許 ROIC 或其他一些指標可以幫助我們更好地考慮您正在進行的投資？

Yes. So Mehdi, it's Sanjay. So I think the latter part of the question first. As we see revenue continue to grow and with the penetration of the market of less than 3%, we are going to continue to invest in driving competitive advantage, broaden the portfolio, go-to-market -- across the board in engineering and go-to-market to continue to capture the market share.

是的。那麼Mehdi，是Sanjay。所以我認為是問題的後半部分。隨著我們看到收入持續增長並且市場滲透率低於 3%，我們將繼續投資於提高競爭優勢、擴大產品組合、進入市場——全面進行工程和推廣-to-market繼續佔領市場份額。

From a profitability or leverage perspective, moving more towards the ROIC comment is, fundamentally, when the market starts to slow and growth starts to slow at some time in the future, and we haven't considered that within our midterm, we don't see that growth moderating over the midterm with our 32% to 45% growth. At that point is when we will lower the investment.

從盈利能力或槓桿率的角度來看，從根本上講，當市場開始放緩並且未來某個時候增長開始放緩時，更多地轉向 ROIC 評論，我們沒有考慮到在我們的中期，我們不會看到增長在中期放緩，我們的增長率為 32% 至 45%。那時我們將降低投資。

I will comment another point on the ROIC is our gross margins in that segment are above the corporate average. So we'll start to see a much higher return on the invested capital when revenue starts to moderate, the growth starts to moderate. But fundamentally, we are leaning into OpEx to really capture that market.

我將評論ROIC的另一點是我們在該領域的毛利率高於公司平均水平。因此，當收入開始放緩、增長開始放緩時，我們將開始看到投資資本的更高回報。但從根本上說，我們正依靠運營支出來真正佔領這個市場。

And our next question comes from the line of John Pitzer with Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 John Pitzer。

Mark, last night, Advantest reported overnight, and I think it's always a little bit dangerous to compare because starting points can be different. But I think they guided kind of their view of the SOC market up about 16% this year versus yours of flat. I'm just trying to -- and it's off the same growth rate that you have for '21.

馬克，昨晚，Advantest 在一夜之間報導了，我認為比較總是有點危險，因為起點可能不同。但我認為他們引導他們對 SOC 市場的看法今年上漲了約 16%，而你的看法則持平。我只是在嘗試——它的增長率與 21 年的增長率相同。

So I guess I'm just trying to square the circle as to whether or not I should view your guidance as being particularly conservative? Or is the way you square the circle just your relative customer concentration? And I guess if you look outside your largest customer, how do you see the SOC market trends for this year?

所以我想我只是想弄清楚我是否應該將您的指導視為特別保守？還是您將圓圈平方的方式只是您的相對客戶集中度？而且我想如果你看看你最大的客戶之外，你如何看待今年的 SOC 市場趨勢？

Yes. It's a good question. I saw those numbers, too. I think there's 2 phenomena that you've cited going on. I think we are a bit lower than them in terms of the annual market size guide. Part of that is due to the fact that probably what our largest concentration is doing this year is somewhat opaque to them. And so that's a factor that's probably not in their numbers.

是的。這是個好問題。我也看到了這些數字。我認為您引用的有兩種現象正在發生。我認為我們在年度市場規模指南方面比他們低一些。部分原因是我們今年最大的集中度可能對他們來說有些不透明。所以這可能不是他們的數字中的一個因素。

And I do think if you look at the rest of the market, excluding that high concentration of ours, there is growth this year in the market, which is what we expect. So probably -- it's almost probably 50-50 that gives the difference.

我確實認為，如果你看看市場的其他部分，不包括我們高度集中的市場，今年市場會出現增長，這正是我們的預期。所以可能 - 幾乎可能是 50-50 給出了差異。

That's helpful. And then Sanjay, just going back to Mehdi's question on the IA business. I think I understand the dynamic of growth rate to op margin. But is there sort of a revenue level of IA where you would expect to see scale take over? Or is this a business that the faster you're growing, the more you have to build out channels?

這很有幫助。然後 Sanjay，回到 Mehdi 關於 IA 業務的問題。我想我理解增長率對營業利潤率的影響。但是，您是否希望看到規模接管的 IA 收入水平？或者這是一個你發展得越快，你就需要建立更多渠道的業務？

I'm just kind of curious, is there a revenue level that we can expect you guys hitting in some time out in the future that's just going to drive some natural operating leverage in that business?

我只是有點好奇，有沒有我們可以期待你們在未來一段時間內達到的收入水平，這只會推動該業務的一些自然運營槓桿？

Yes. And over the midterm, in our model, we are seeing a little bit of that play out as revenues grow. Sure, the fixed -- certain fixed costs are going to gain on that leverage. But I'd ask you to think about if -- as we grow into different verticals and the applications within those verticals, we're really building both engineering capability in our product, reducing friction in those different verticals of how we can get to reducing the time of implementation significantly.

是的。在中期，在我們的模型中，隨著收入的增長，我們看到了一些影響。當然，固定 - 某些固定成本將在這種槓桿作用下獲得收益。但我想請你考慮一下——隨著我們發展到不同的垂直領域和這些垂直領域中的應用程序，我們真的在我們的產品中建立了工程能力，減少了這些不同垂直領域的摩擦，我們如何才能減少實施時間顯著。

So a significant portion is tied to R&D as well as scaling the go-to-market in different territories and in different segments. But the quick answer is, as I said earlier, there is some of that scale we are seeing in the midterm, and we will see that come in. But I just wanted to reinforce the point that we continue and plan to continue to invest in broadening the portfolio, reducing friction of implementation, and really go-to-market investments.

因此，很大一部分與研發以及在不同地區和不同細分市場擴大上市規模有關。但快速的答案是，正如我之前所說，我們在中期看到了一些規模，我們會看到這種規模的出現。但我只是想強調一點，我們將繼續併計劃繼續投資擴大投資組合，減少實施摩擦，以及真正進入市場的投資。

And our next question comes from the line of Vivek Arya with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Vivek Arya。

For my first one, I'm curious, Mark, how much does test intensity change as you move from 5 or 4 nanometers to 3-nanometers and gate-all-around? And is this a step function in '23 and then it stays flat in '24? Or is there a growth from '23 to '24?

對於我的第一個，我很好奇，馬克，當你從 5 或 4 納米移動到 3 納米和環柵時，測試強度會發生多大的變化？這是 23 年的階躍函數，然後在 24 年保持不變嗎？還是從 23 年到 24 年有增長？

So just conceptually, how much does test intensity or complexity, whichever way you want to quantify it, change from 5, 4 nanometers to 3-nanometers and gate-all-around.

所以只是從概念上講，測試強度或複雜性有多少，無論您想量化它的哪種方式，從 5、4 納米到 3 納米和全方位的門。

Okay. There's a couple of ways you can look at it. Maybe the economic way to look at it would just look at history a little bit. When we see a major node transition in the industry, you can see that the tester market, the ATE market and our revenue sort of grows faster than, let's say, 2 years into a node. So economically, if you look at that sort of -- and you can kind of see that in the charts we published with the earnings deck that shows the revenue trends against the trend line over time. Certain years are above the trend line, those tend to correlate to when new nodes get introduced. And the new nodes enable a big jump economically, a big jump in transistor count, and transistor count is what drives our business. More transistors means more test times, means more testers. But the last part of this is it takes a couple of years for a new node to sort of reach sort of its normalized volume.

好的。有幾種方法可以查看它。也許看待它的經濟方式只是稍微回顧一下歷史。當我們看到行業中的主要節點過渡時，您可以看到測試儀市場、ATE 市場和我們的收入增長速度快於，比如說，進入一個節點 2 年。所以從經濟上講，如果你看那種 - 你可以在我們發布的圖表中看到這一點，該圖表顯示了隨著時間的推移相對於趨勢線的收入趨勢。某些年份高於趨勢線，這些年份往往與引入新節點的時間相關。新節點在經濟上實現了巨大的飛躍，晶體管數量大幅增長，而晶體管數量是推動我們業務的動力。更多的晶體管意味著更多的測試時間，意味著更多的測試人員。但最後一部分是，一個新節點需要幾年的時間才能達到其標準化容量。

So in the first year of production, let's say it, 3-nanometer next year. Maybe 3-nanometer will grow to somewhere around 12% plus or minus of semiconductor revenue next year. Maybe it's 10%, maybe it's 13%, something like that. In 2024, it will continue to ramp and maybe it will represent closer to 20%, 25%. So we'll see a couple of years of benefit from 3-nanometer as it sort of grows in its contribution to the overall semiconductor revenue stream.

所以在生產的第一年，讓我們說，明年是 3 納米。也許明年 3 納米技術將增長到半導體收入的 12% 左右。也許是 10%，也許是 13%，諸如此類。到 2024 年，它將繼續上升，可能會接近 20%、25%。因此，我們將看到 3 納米技術在幾年內受益，因為它對整個半導體收入流的貢獻有所增長。

Got it. And for my follow-up, I'm curious, what is your current exposure to 5G modems? And how should we think about how it evolves from 2023, both from a unit and a content perspective?

知道了。對於我的後續行動，我很好奇，您目前對 5G 調製解調器的了解情況如何？從單元和內容的角度來看，我們應該如何看待它從 2023 年開始的演變？

Modems are a strong area for us. The dynamics are changing a bit there because more and more cell phone manufacturers are starting to build their own modems. So there's been a sort of a disaggregation of that market. And by and large, that's a positive trend for us because the -- the relative share position we have at, let's say, the established suppliers of modems was below our average share in the market. And our share at the disaggregated newcomers that are building their own modems is higher. So we look at that as a positive.

調製解調器對我們來說是一個強大的領域。由於越來越多的手機製造商開始構建自己的調製解調器，因此動態正在發生一些變化。因此，該市場出現了某種分解。總的來說，這對我們來說是一個積極的趨勢，因為我們在現有調製解調器供應商的相對份額位置低於我們在市場上的平均份額。我們在構建自己的調製解調器的分類新人中所佔的份額更高。所以我們認為這是積極的。

And is that contemplated in your '24 outlook? Or would that be incremental?

你的 24 年展望中是否考慮到了這一點？或者那會是增量的嗎？

It is complemented -- it is contemplated, yes.

它是補充的——它是被考慮的，是的。

And our next question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的蒂莫西·阿庫裡（Timothy Arcuri）。

I'm wondering, Mark, can you break down the $4.8 billion SOC TAM in 2021 into the different segments, mobility, and compute, and autos, and industrial, and all those kind of things? And then also, can you give us some sense of if you assume the market is flat, which I'm going to ask you a follow-up, it's like hard to believe that the market would be just flat. But if you assume it is, can you talk about how you would see the mix shifting in '22? And then I had a follow-up as well.

我想知道，馬克，您能否將 2021 年 48 億美元的 SOC TAM 分解為不同的細分市場、移動性、計算、汽車、工業以及所有這些領域？然後，你能否給我們一些感覺，如果你假設市場是平的，我會問你一個後續行動，很難相信市場會是平的。但如果你認為是這樣，你能談談你會如何看待 22 年的混合變化嗎？然後我也進行了跟進。

Okay. I'll give you the numbers by the segments as we currently kind of see them today. And of course, these are estimates for 2022 and 2021 for that matter. But the compute market, as an example, we think last year was about a $1.1 billion ATE market, and we think that's going to grow this year to about $1.3 billion. So there's growth in the compute segment. Mobility last year was about $2 billion. We think that will come down to $1.8 billion. Much of that is due to our concentrated area. Automotive and MCU, we think, is flat at about $0.5 billion year-over-year. Industrial's down slightly probably, $600 million to $500 million. And then the service business will grow maybe $100 million from $600 million to $700 million.

好的。我將按照我們今天看到的細分為您提供數字。當然，這些是對 2022 年和 2021 年的估計。但以計算市場為例，我們認為去年的 ATE 市場約為 11 億美元，我們認為今年將增長至約 13 億美元。因此，計算領域出現了增長。去年的流動性約為 20 億美元。我們認為這將降至 18 億美元。這在很大程度上是由於我們的集中區域。我們認為，汽車和 MCU 同比持平在 5 億美元左右。工業股可能略有下降，6 億至 5 億美元。然後服務業務將從 6 億美元增長到 7 億美元，可能會增長 1 億美元。

Got it. Okay. And then I guess I had a question just on -- I mean, having followed this industry for 25 years, the relationship, I mean, it doesn't hold true every year between WFE and tester market size. But some of maybe what you're seeing in the SOC market is because some of the WFE suppliers are struggling to get tools installed and whatnot. But once those tools get installed, you're going to have to test those chips. And if you compare the size of the SOC TAM to the size of the -- you compare non-memory to non-memory, you have a $60 billion to $65 billion non-memory WFE TAM this year. And if the SOC TAM is only $4.8 billion, I mean we've like never seen a ratio anywhere close to that low.

知道了。好的。然後我想我有一個問題——我的意思是，我已經關注這個行業 25 年，我的意思是，WFE 和測試儀市場規模之間的關係並不是每年都成立。但是，您在 SOC 市場上看到的一些情況可能是因為一些 WFE 供應商正在努力安裝工具等等。但是一旦安裝了這些工具，您將不得不測試這些芯片。如果您將 SOC TAM 的大小與 - 將非內存與非內存的大小進行比較，那麼今年您將擁有 600 億至 650 億美元的非內存 WFE TAM。如果 SOC TAM 只有 48 億美元，我的意思是我們從未見過如此低的比率。

So it would either say that the number this year has to be a lot higher as that stuff gets installed or you make it up next year. Can you just sort of talk about that? I know that you guys look at those numbers, but it just seems sort of hard to believe that the ratio would be that low.

所以它要么說今年的數字必須更高，因為安裝了這些東西，要么你明年補上。你能談談嗎？我知道你們看過這些數字，但似乎很難相信這個比率會這麼低。

You're absolutely right. And the reason is kind of what you hinted at is the time it's taking to bring up 3-nanometer is longer than traditionally it's taken to bring up a new node. We're kind of stretching it into a 3-year window. So the tool -- a lot of the tools, by the way, have been put in place. Some are a little bit constrained by supply, but a lot of them have been put in place, but tuning the recipe, getting it ready for ramp, and then the cycle -- the process cycle time for the wafers themselves is longer.

你是絕對正確的。原因就像您所暗示的那樣，提出 3 納米所需的時間比傳統上提出新節點所需的時間要長。我們有點把它延長到一個 3 年的窗口。所以工具——順便說一句，很多工具已經到位。有些受到供應的限制，但其中很多已經到位，但是調整配方，準備好斜坡，然後是周期——晶圓本身的工藝週期時間更長。

Once mass production switch turns on, it's incrementally longer to crank the wafers through the whole recipe than the prior node. So there is a throughput. So all of that kind of moves the impact of 3-nanometer to 2023. But the ratios that you talk about is why we've, we look at this carefully, too, and our midterm earnings model has increased so significantly compared to a year ago because all of this equipment going in to support this new technology is a bow-wave coming our way. And the only unfortunate thing is it's -- it didn't make it for 2022.

一旦量產開關打開，在整個配方中啟動晶圓的時間比之前的節點要長。所以有一個吞吐量。所以所有這些都將 3 納米的影響轉移到了 2023 年。但是你所說的比率是為什麼我們會仔細研究這一點，而且我們的中期收益模型與一年相比有瞭如此顯著的增長以前，因為支持這項新技術的所有這些設備都是向我們襲來的弓波。唯一不幸的是——它沒有在 2022 年實現。

And our next question comes from the line of Atif Malik with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗的 Atif Malik。

Mark, as a follow-up to Tim's prior question about the WFE relation, given that you have a very low or almost no exposure to x86-related spending, which is a very big portion of WFE this year and next year, I mean, how should we think about your test growth? I mean I think that correlation it probably breaks down because you don't have a lot of exposure there and they're spending a ton of spending from government and whatnot.

馬克，作為 Tim 之前關於 WFE 關係的問題的後續問題，考慮到您對 x86 相關支出的敞口非常低或幾乎沒有，這是今年和明年 WFE 的很大一部分，我的意思是，我們應該如何看待您的測試增長？我的意思是我認為這種相關性可能會破裂，因為你在那裡沒有太多的曝光率，而且他們從政府和諸如此類的地方花費了大量的開支。

And then what about things like advanced packaging and heterogeneous compute, if you can talk about when the test attach rates become a meaningful driver for those end markets?

然後，如果您可以談論測試附加率何時成為這些終端市場的重要驅動因素，那麼高級封裝和異構計算之類的事情呢？

Yes. So there's, let's say, Teradyne's growth and the market growth to think about. And the x86 world, for example, in 2022 was quite anemic whereas Teradyne's business was quite strong that year because of where we're concentrated and who -- which customers are tooling.

是的。比如說，泰瑞達的增長和市場增長需要考慮。例如，x86 世界在 2022 年相當低迷，而泰瑞達那年的業務相當強勁，因為我們集中在哪里以及誰在使用工具——哪些客戶在使用。

So in 2022, the x86 world, I think, is going to be more robustly tooling than last year even. And we won't benefit much from that this year. So that, in fact, is a true dynamic. And then other things happening with advanced packaging and chiplets and all of that, those are moving, I would say, modestly into the market. They moved in cell phones a while ago, but in compute, that's something I think that we're probably not going to feel until 2024. Maybe 3-nanometer will come first and then the sort of more ubiquitous use of different kinds of advanced packaging will follow shortly thereafter. But the 2 things won't jump on top of each other just because the -- I think the yield concerns of 2 new technologies at once will keep them staggered.

因此，我認為，到 2022 年，x86 世界甚至會比去年更加強大。今年我們不會從中受益太多。所以，事實上，這是一個真正的動態。然後是先進封裝和小芯片發生的其他事情以及所有這些，我想說，這些事情正在適度地進入市場。不久前他們進入了手機領域，但在計算領域，我認為我們可能要到 2024 年才能感受到這一點。也許 3 納米會首先出現，然後是更普遍地使用不同類型的先進封裝此後不久將跟進。但是這兩件事不會因為——我認為同時對兩種新技術的產量擔憂會讓它們錯開而相互重疊。

Great. And as a follow-up for Sanjay, is there any impact from supply constraints in your guidance for the March quarter as other suppliers have talked about getting hit from labor shortages and freight-related issues?

偉大的。作為 Sanjay 的後續行動，您對 3 月季度的指導意見中的供應限制是否會產生任何影響，因為其他供應商已經談到受到勞動力短缺和貨運相關問題的打擊？

Sure. I'd say the supply impact in Q4, there's really no material supply impact on sales. But in Q1, I'd say we have about $30 million to $40 million worth of supply risk, which we've contemplated in our updated revenue guide. None of this will result in a share loss, it will just be pushed into Q2.

當然。我想說的是第四季度的供應影響，實際上對銷售沒有實質性的供應影響。但在第一季度，我會說我們有大約 3000 萬到 4000 萬美元的供應風險，我們已經在更新的收入指南中考慮了這一點。這些都不會導致份額損失，只會被推到第二季度。

But a little bit of commentary on the supply environment. Fundamentally, we see the supply tightening in 2022. Many more semiconductor players are going into formal allocation, which is incrementally -- indicate incremental tightness in the market in 2022. We were under the impression that in the second half of 2022 with the fab and substrate investments that the supply-demand dynamic would alleviate and the tightening would loosen. However, our view currently is that that's being pushed out to the first half of 2023, really based on the discussion with our supply chain partners. And so while the fab and substrate capital is being deployed and increasing supply, we still see tightness over 2022.

但對供應環境稍作評論。從根本上說，我們認為 2022 年供應將趨緊。更多的半導體廠商正在進入正式配置階段，這表明 2022 年市場將逐漸趨緊。我們的印像是，在 2022 年下半年，晶圓廠和供需動態將緩解，緊縮將放鬆的基礎投資。然而，我們目前的觀點是，這將被推遲到 2023 年上半年，這實際上是基於與我們的供應鏈合作夥伴的討論。因此，儘管晶圓廠和基板資本正在部署並增加供應，但我們仍然看到 2022 年的供應緊張。

And our next question comes from the line of Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

I had two as well, one on the Semi Test side and the other on IA. Mark, I think in your prepared remarks, you talked about Eagle Test as sort of a platform growing 90% year-over-year. I think that's very consistent with some of the TAM numbers you just gave out in response to a prior question.

我也有兩個，一個在半測試方面，另一個在 IA。馬克，我認為在你準備好的評論中，你談到 Eagle Test 是一個同比增長 90% 的平台。我認為這與您剛剛在回答之前的問題時提供的一些 TAM 數字非常一致。

Just curious how you're thinking about Eagle Test in '22. When we listen to your customers talk about their CapEx intentions, not only in wafer processing but also in test, the posture is really aggressive, right, whether it be TI or SD or microchip, I mean a long list of customers. Just curious how you're thinking about Eagle Test and why is your TAM estimate flattish year-over-year?

只是好奇您如何看待 22 年的 Eagle Test。當我們聽你的客戶談論他們的資本支出意圖時，不僅在晶圓加工方面，而且在測試方面，姿態真的很激進，對，無論是 TI、SD 還是微芯片，我的意思是一長串客戶。只是好奇您如何看待 Eagle Test，為什麼您的 TAM 估計同比持平？

Yes. So there's a couple of things going on there. So the Eagle Test product and the thing that we usually talk about, called automotive, tends to be more the traditional power-related semiconductor content in an automobile. And so as the supply chain needed to be replenished last year and automobile production started to come back up, a lot of the traditional airbag control, antilock brake control, all of those things drove Eagle demand. And we think this year for Eagle, for those kind of devices will be similar to what it was last year, so not growth. And as I said, the market as well, not growth.

是的。所以那裡發生了幾件事。所以Eagle Test產品和我們通常說的汽車，往往更多的是汽車中傳統的與電源相關的半導體內容。所以去年供應鏈需要補充，汽車生產開始回升，很多傳統的安全氣囊控制，防抱死制動控制，所有這些都推動了 Eagle 的需求。而且我們認為今年對於 Eagle，這類設備將與去年相似，因此不會增長。正如我所說，市場也是如此，而不是增長。

However, there's another thing that we're having a harder time classifying is automotive, which is the digital content of automobiles. We tend to put that at the moment in the compute market. And those advanced controllers are something that is more targeted and put on our UltraFLEX platform. So we are expecting to see some growth there for applications, automotive applications, their digital content. But for the moment, at least, because it's somewhat nascent and growing, it's bucketed in compute.

然而，還有一件事我們很難分類，那就是汽車，它是汽車的數字內容。我們目前傾向於將其放在計算市場中。這些高級控制器更有針對性，並放在我們的 UltraFLEX 平台上。因此，我們預計應用程序、汽車應用程序及其數字內容會出現一些增長。但至少就目前而言，因為它有點新生和成長，它被存儲在計算領域。

Got it. And then as my follow-up on the IA side, I guess I'm curious why wouldn't this business grow faster in the near term. I realize you've got supply constraints. But when you think about the business on a 3- to 5-year basis, 40-ish percent growth is certainly not bad growth. But given the penetration rate of cobots that you guys have talked about, the labor shortages, with wage inflation, I'm guessing payback periods are shorter.

知道了。然後作為我在 IA 方面的後續行動，我想我很好奇為什麼這項業務不會在短期內增長得更快。我意識到你有供應限制。但是當你從 3 到 5 年的基礎上考慮業務時，40% 左右的增長肯定不是壞的增長。但是考慮到你們談到的協作機器人的普及率，勞動力短缺，工資上漲，我猜投資回收期會更短。

So from a user perspective, I feel like it's a no-brainer, particularly with COVID and all these things going on. So is it manufacturing capacity? Is it distribution? I think in the past, you guys have talked about getting the word out is kind of an important dynamic as you grow that business. But why wouldn't this grow 60%, 70%, 80% as opposed to 35%, 40%?

所以從用戶的角度來看，我覺得這很容易，尤其是在 COVID 和所有這些事情發生的情況下。那麼是製造能力嗎？是分銷嗎？我認為在過去，你們談論過宣傳是一種重要的動力，因為你發展了這項業務。但是為什麼不增長 60%、70%、80% 而不是 35%、40%？

Yes. That is the million-dollar question that I ask every day and -- because you're absolutely right. The dynamics are there. The ROI is there. Everything is there. The biggest obstacle to sort of faster growth is the unfortunate fact that to deploy a cobot takes a human and it takes a skilled human, a technician, today to spend some number of weeks depending on the application, putting it into production. And therefore, we're somewhat constrained by the same labor supply issues that all global industry is experiencing. We're growing that 30-plus percent a year, that army. It's not an army that we ourselves hire as much as it's an army that our distribution partners hire, and they are. But there's some practical limitation on how quickly they can hire and train.

是的。這是我每天都會問的價值百萬美元的問題，而且——因為你是絕對正確的。動態就在那裡。投資回報率就在那裡。一切都在那裡。實現更快增長的最大障礙是一個不幸的事實，即部署協作機器人需要一個人，而今天需要一個熟練的技術人員，一個技術人員，根據應用程序花費數週時間，將其投入生產。因此，我們在某種程度上受到所有全球行業都在經歷的相同勞動力供應問題的限制。我們正在以每年 30% 以上的速度增長，這支軍隊。這不是我們自己僱傭的軍隊，而是我們的分銷合作夥伴僱傭的軍隊，他們確實如此。但是，他們僱傭和培訓的速度存在一些實際限制。

So the way out of this bottleneck is to make that deployment time quicker, and quicker, and quicker, which is why we are actually growing faster than we're growing the human fleet of people to install these things. So we've got to widen that gap. We have to get -- to grow 50% only takes 10% more people, for example, in the applications deployment space. But that's the biggest single thing and we're working on that. We're planning though. In the model we presented here, growing -- continuing to grow at this sort of 30% to 45% rate through 2024, we're assuming that every year we're going to make progress on that efficiency.

所以擺脫這個瓶頸的方法是讓部署時間越來越快，越來越快，這就是為什麼我們實際上的增長速度比我們安裝這些東西的人力隊伍的增長速度要快。所以我們必須擴大這個差距。我們必須得到——例如，在應用程序部署領域，增長 50% 只需要增加 10% 的人。但這是最重要的事情，我們正在努力。不過我們正在計劃。在我們在這裡展示的模型中，增長——到 2024 年繼續以 30% 到 45% 的速度增長，我們假設每年我們都會在效率方面取得進展。

And our next question comes from the line of C.J. Muse with Evercore.

我們的下一個問題來自 C.J. Muse with Evercore 的系列。

I guess first question, Mark, if I go back to kind of your commentary 3, 4 months ago, it certainly sounded like the breadth of spending at your largest customer, combined with diversification and share gains elsewhere at kind of new ARM-based emerging players, gave you the confidence that even if your top customer were to decline in '22 that you'd still be well positioned. But now you're guiding to an SOC test market relative to advanced test that is $700 million lower, you told us that your largest customer was 19%, which is about $700 million.

我想第一個問題，馬克，如果我回到你 3、4 個月前的評論，聽起來肯定是你最大客戶的支出廣度，再加上在基於 ARM 的新興新興市場中的多元化和分享收益玩家，讓您有信心，即使您的頂級客戶在 22 年下降，您仍然處於有利地位。但是現在您正在引導 SOC 測試市場相對於高級測試低 7 億美元，您告訴我們您的最大客戶是 19%，大約是 7 億美元。

So are you basically telling us that you're taking your largest customer to 0 this year? And I guess why would that change so dramatically kind of in the last 3 to 4 months? I think that it was widely known that 3-nanometer was going to be a very kind of small node in '22, much larger in '23. So curious what really has changed in the last 3 to 4 months in your view.

那麼，您基本上是在告訴我們，您今年將最大的客戶減少到 0 嗎？我猜為什麼在過去的 3 到 4 個月內會發生如此巨大的變化？我認為眾所周知，3 納米在 22 年將是一個非常小的節點，在 23 年會更大。很好奇在你看來，過去 3 到 4 個月真正發生了什麼變化。

Well, I think the -- certainly, the macro number around how much our largest customer represents as revenue last year is right, around $700 million at 19% of revenue. No, it's not going to 0. It's going to probably be below 10%. So the magnitude, I think, that the change that has occurred represents is larger than we would have expected. And I think that the transparency -- and even now, the amount of visibility into what that will be is still vague.

好吧，我認為 - 當然，關於我們最大客戶在去年的收入代表多少的宏觀數字是正確的，大約 7 億美元，佔收入的 19%。不，它不會為 0。它可能會低於 10%。因此，我認為，已經發生的變化所代表的幅度比我們預期的要大。而且我認為透明度——即使是現在，對這將是什麼的可見性仍然是模糊的。

So it's not something that we typically get full confirmation of it until April of this year, so to speak. So we're kind of working on the most recent inputs that we've received. And I think they're fundamentally -- as I've said in the past, there's always multiple scenarios in flight with the area we're concentrated in as to how the year can play out. And there's a range of forecasts that we get that get updated along the way. And those can swing dramatically as they've done this time.

因此，可以這麼說，我們通常要到今年 4 月才能完全確認它。因此，我們正在處理我們收到的最新意見。而且我認為它們從根本上說 - 正如我過去所說，我們所關注的領域總是存在多種情況，以了解這一年如何發揮作用。我們得到的一系列預測會在此過程中不斷更新。就像他們這次所做的那樣，這些可能會發生巨大的變化。

So I don't have any more insight than that or anything that I think is prudent to share around what changed with that large account. But I do think if you go from $700 million below 10%-ish probably this year, that's a big portion of the delta between perhaps what Advantest is guiding and we're guiding. And then we're down into 5% difference on a forecast for the year. And it could be either way, it could be either way. I don't think there's a lot of precision in that on our side or theirs, but I think we're pretty close.

因此，我沒有比這更多的見解或任何我認為謹慎分享該大帳戶發生的變化的信息。但我確實認為，如果你今年可能從 7 億美元低於 10% 左右，這可能是 Advantest 指導的和我們指導的差額的很大一部分。然後我們對今年的預測有 5% 的差異。它可以是任何一種方式，也可以是任何一種方式。我不認為我們這邊或他們那邊有很多精確度，但我認為我們非常接近。

Very, very helpful. I guess my follow-up question on your target model. You're talking about Test revenues growing at a 7% to 11% CAGR. I'm assuming that that's kind of your underlying growth rate for Semi Test. And if I make that assumption, then your System Test, plus LitePoint, plus HDD, SD, revenues essentially are like down $200 million in 3 years' time. So I guess, are you assuming a slower kind of growth CAGR for Semi Test? Or is there something else going on in kind of the other bucket?

非常非常有幫助。我想我對您的目標模型的後續問題。你說的是測試收入以 7% 到 11% 的複合年增長率增長。我假設這就是您對 Semi Test 的潛在增長率。如果我做出這樣的假設，那麼您的系統測試、LitePoint、HDD、SD 的收入在 3 年內基本上會減少 2 億美元。所以我想，您是否假設 Semi Test 的複合年增長率較慢？或者在另一個桶中還有其他事情發生嗎？

Yes. It's Sanjay here. So yes. So overall Test is growing 7% to 11%. Obviously, Semi Test is the largest component of our Test portfolio. But think of our other businesses as growing marginally in Test, marginally at the same level or marginally a little bit higher.

是的。這裡是桑傑。所以是的。所以總體測試增長了 7% 到 11%。顯然，Semi Test 是我們測試產品組合中最大的組成部分。但想想我們的其他業務在測試中的增長幅度很小，處於相同水平或稍高一點。

And our next question comes from the line of Krish Sankar with Cowen and Company.

我們的下一個問題來自與 Cowen and Company 的 Krish Sankar。

I have two of them. Mark, thanks for the color on the SOC market size by segment. You mentioned that compute should grow to about $1.3 billion from $1.1 billion last year. I'm just kind of curious if you can help give a little more color on that on the split between x86 and non-x86. And as one of the large U.S. IDMs start doing more foundry business, is that an opportunity where they would start looking at outside platforms versus in-house-designed SOC testers? And then I have a follow-up.

我有兩個。馬克，感謝按細分市場劃分的 SOC 市場規模的顏色。你提到計算應該從去年的 11 億美元增長到 13 億美元左右。我只是有點好奇您是否可以幫助在 x86 和非 x86 之間的拆分上提供更多顏色。隨著美國大型 IDM 之一開始開展更多代工業務，這是他們開始關注外部平台而不是內部設計的 SOC 測試人員的機會嗎？然後我有一個跟進。

Yes. I wouldn't attribute it all to x86. We use that as shorthand sometimes in these conversations, but there's other areas like graphics, chips, and FPGAs that are also part of that compute thing that are growing this year. So the collection of x86 plus graphics and FPGAs would be the driver of that. What was the second part of the question?

是的。我不會把它全部歸功於 x86。我們有時在這些對話中使用它作為速記，但還有其他領域，如圖形、芯片和 FPGA，它們也是今年增長的計算事物的一部分。因此，x86 加上圖形和 FPGA 的集合將成為其驅動力。問題的第二部分是什麼？

Foundry.

鑄造廠。

Yes. So the thing is I do believe -- there's no doubt that if a company is getting into the foundry business, they're going to have to accommodate external test platforms. The only thing is that just because there's a new foundry player doesn't -- it sort of doesn't change the overall global market. They're just stealing share from some other foundry who would also buy commercial test equipment. The real question is for their internal product development, will they shift to commercial equipment where today they use in-house equipment. And that -- let's wait and see. It's -- we're not assuming that in any of our midterm plans.

是的。所以我確實相信——毫無疑問，如果一家公司進入代工業務，他們將不得不適應外部測試平台。唯一的問題是，僅僅因為有一個新的代工廠商不會——它不會改變整個全球市場。他們只是從其他一些也會購買商業測試設備的代工廠中竊取份額。真正的問題是他們的內部產品開發，他們是否會轉向商業設備，而如今他們使用內部設備。那 - 讓我們拭目以待。這是 - 我們沒有在我們的任何中期計劃中假設這一點。

So this plan through 2024 does not assume any of that. But you can imagine that the cost of continuing to invest in that is high. And the rate of the road map change now for x86 manufacturers is quite high. It used to be a very slow predictable cadence. And now the competition is heated up, and it's fast and furious, it's harder and harder for the internal tester group to keep up with that.

所以這個到 2024 年的計劃不假設任何這些。但你可以想像，繼續投資的成本很高。現在 x86 製造商的路線圖變化率非常高。它曾經是一個非常緩慢的可預測的節奏。而現在競爭白熱化，又快又猛，內測組越來越難跟上。

So we don't assume it's going to happen, but I think the cards are sort of played in a way that suggests it's probably going to happen, maybe not by '24, but certainly out in the next 4 or 5 years. That would be my bet.

所以我們不認為它會發生，但我認為這些牌的播放方式表明它可能會發生，也許不會在 24 年發生，但肯定會在未來 4 或 5 年內發生。那將是我的賭注。

Got it. Fair enough. Fair enough. Super helpful. And then just a quick follow-up, maybe a 2-part question, if I can. On the IA side, if throughput issue for you when as the industrial robotic folks start getting into down the tail or it seems like they might be faster than the cobot, is that an issue from your vantage point?

知道了。很公平。很公平。超級有幫助。然後只是一個快速的跟進，如果可以的話，也許是一個兩部分的問題。在 IA 方面，如果當工業機器人人員開始進入尾部或看起來他們可能比協作機器人更快時對您來說吞吐量問題，從您的角度來看，這是一個問題嗎？

And then just a quick follow-up is I think Advantest when they talk about SOC market, they include services in it. You guys do not. So is that a way of what you think services would be this year versus last year? Maybe that could explain a couple of hundred million dollar difference maybe.

然後，我認為 Advantest 在談論 SOC 市場時會快速跟進，他們將服務包括在其中。你們沒有。那麼這是您認為今年與去年相比服務的一種方式嗎？也許這可以解釋幾億美元的差異。

Yes. So first, on the speed of the robots question. Yes, traditional industrial robots tend to have much faster cycle times. They can pick, and move, and place things at a lightning speed. That's partly why they're dangerous, partly why they're in cages. They're kept away from people. And those products have been around for decades, frankly, decades. Collaborative robots is really opening up a whole new application space where those 20-year-old fast products couldn't perform for some reason, either because the cost of isolating them from humans was too high, or the flexibility that they had in terms of repeatability and such wasn't good enough, or the time to change over for a higher mix environment was onerous. If it's picking up one thing and moving one thing 1,000 times a minute for years, it's the right solution and it's been solved.

是的。首先，關於機器人問題的速度。是的，傳統的工業機器人往往具有更快的循環時間。他們可以以閃電般的速度挑選、移動和放置物品。這就是它們危險的部分原因，也是它們被關在籠子裡的部分原因。他們遠離人們。這些產品已經存在了幾十年，坦率地說，幾十年。協作機器人確實開闢了一個全新的應用空間，那些有 20 年曆史的快速產品由於某種原因無法執行，要么是因為將它們與人類隔離的成本太高，要么是它們在以下方面的靈活性可重複性等不夠好，或者轉換到更高混合環境的時間很繁瑣。如果多年來它每分鐘撿起一件東西並移動一件東西 1000 次，那麼它就是正確的解決方案，並且已經解決了。

So cobots is a brand new thing. It's all the places those things didn't make sense that we're opening up with cobots. And I think that's what's exciting. So I don't think there's any news there. And your last question was service in the TAM, yes.

所以協作機器人是一個全新的事物。我們正在使用協作機器人開放所有這些東西沒有意義的地方。我認為這就是令人興奮的地方。所以我認為那裡沒有任何消息。您的最後一個問題是在 TAM 中的服務，是的。

I think we estimated somewhere in the $600 million to $700 million range. I frankly don't know what Advantest estimates on that, but it's probably close.

我認為我們估計在 6 億到 7 億美元之間。坦率地說，我不知道 Advantest 對此的估計，但它可能很接近。

And operator, we have time for just one more question, please.

接線員，我們有時間再問一個問題。

All right. Then our last question will come from the line of Brian Chin with Stifel.

好的。那麼我們的最後一個問題將來自於 Stifel 的 Brian Chin 的台詞。

I may just ask a few questions. I guess, first, on the Semi Test side, on a quarterly basis, Mark, it looks like the year-over-year declines might bottom out in 2Q and certainly first half. But I guess, off this lower first half revenue base, has it been unfair to expect unit seasonality? Or do you think a typical sort of 52%, 48% first half, second half relationship still applies given sort of your views for the TAM this year?

我可能只是問幾個問題。我想，首先，在半測試方面，按季度，馬克，看起來同比下降可能會在第二季度和上半年觸底。但我想，在上半年收入基數較低的情況下，預期單位季節性是否不公平？還是根據您對今年 TAM 的看法，您認為典型的 52%、48% 上半年和下半年的關係仍然適用嗎？

Yes. The second -- we've proven in the last 2 years that we're not good forecasting the second half of the year. But because of this abnormality in the first half, I would expect on average that you're going to see a little more of a second half weighting because we kind of have this a little bit of an abnormal hole in the first. So it wouldn't be a typical year, they'll probably be a little more back weighted.

是的。第二個——我們在過去兩年中已經證明，我們不能很好地預測下半年。但是由於上半場的這種異常，我平均預計下半場你會看到更多的權重，因為我們在上半場有點不正常的洞。所以這不會是一個典型的年份，他們可能會更重一些。

Okay. So not even level set but maybe even a stronger bias to second half.

好的。所以甚至不是水平設置，但可能對下半場有更強烈的偏見。

Yes.

是的。

Okay. Interesting. And I guess on the Industrial Automation side, based on your commentary, there's constraints and I'd imagine you expect year-over-year growth to slow near term but accelerate moving across the year. Can you give us a sense of the magnitude of revenue impact this is creating in first half? And do you view that demand as perishable or shifting to second half?

好的。有趣的。我猜在工業自動化方面，根據您的評論，存在限制，我想您預計短期內同比增長會放緩，但全年會加速。您能否讓我們了解這在上半年產生的收入影響的幅度？您是否認為這種需求會消失或轉移到下半年？

Brian, are you asking a question about supply?

布賴恩，你問的是關於供應的問題嗎？

Well, it's supply -- the overlay of supply constraints against the demand profile you see in Industrial Automation. It sounds like there was a talk of some constraints or even severe constraints in first half in that business. And so I'm kind of wondering what that revenue impact then is and also if it just shifts to the second half or if it's perishable.

嗯，它是供應——供應限制與您在工業自動化中看到的需求概況的疊加。聽起來該業務上半年有一些限制甚至嚴重限制。所以我有點想知道那對收入的影響是什麼，以及它是否只是轉移到下半年或者它是否易腐爛。

Yes. So demand is quite strong. And in Q1, out of the $30 million to $40 million I noted, about $10 million of it is tied to IA. And really, just given the allocation for Q2, our commentary in my prepared remarks, it had a little bit of the impact there. So it's true we are seeing some supply impact in the first half. But I would say that from a first half, second half, we do expect demand in and revenue in the second half for IA to be larger than the first half.

是的。所以需求相當旺盛。在第一季度，在我注意到的 3000 萬到 4000 萬美元中，其中大約 1000 萬美元與 IA 相關。真的，考慮到第二季度的分配，我們在我準備好的評論中的評論，它在那裡產生了一點影響。因此，我們確實在上半年看到了一些供應影響。但我想說的是，從上半年、下半年來看，我們確實預計下半年 IA 的需求和收入將大於上半年。

All right, folks. We are out of time. For those in the queue, I'll follow up with you off-line, and thanks for joining us, and we look forward to talking to you in the weeks ahead. Bye-bye.

好吧，伙計們。我們沒時間了。對於排隊的人，我將在離線狀態下與您聯繫，感謝您加入我們，我們期待在未來幾週內與您交談。再見。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。大家，有一個美好的一天。