泰瑞達 (TER) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Fourth Quarter and Full Year Teradyne Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference may be recorded. (Operator Instructions)

各位好，感謝您稍候。歡迎參加 Teradyne 第四季暨全年財報電話會議。（接線員指示）請注意，今天的會議可能會被錄音。（接線員指示）

I would now like to hand the conference over to your host today, Andy Blanchard, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給今天的主持人——投資人關係副總裁 Andy Blanchard。請開始。

Thank you, Michelle. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our discussion of Teradyne's most recent financial results. I'm joined this morning by our CEO, Mark Jagiela and our CFO, Sanjay Mehta. Following our opening remarks, we'll provide details of our performance for 2021's fourth quarter and full year, along with our outlook for the first quarter of 2022. The press release containing our fourth quarter results was issued last evening. We're providing slides on the Investor page of the website that may be helpful to you in following the discussion. Replays of this call will be available via the same page after the call ends.

謝謝你，Michelle。各位早安，歡迎參加我們對 Teradyne 最新財務結果的討論。今天早上與我一同出席的有我們的執行長 Mark Jagiela 與財務長 Sanjay Mehta。在開場致詞之後，我們將提供 2021 年第四季與全年表現的細節，並分享我們對 2022 年第一季的展望。包含第四季結果的新聞稿已於昨晚發布。我們在網站的投資人頁面提供投影片，可能有助於您跟進本次討論。本次電話會議結束後，亦可透過同一頁面取得重播。

The matters that we discuss today will include forward-looking statements that involve risk factors that could cause Teradyne's results to differ materially from management's current expectations. We encourage you to review the safe harbor statement contained in the earnings release as well as our most recent SEC filings. Additionally, those forward-looking statements are made as of today, and we make no obligation to update them as a result of developments occurring after this call.

我們今天討論的事項將包含前瞻性陳述，其中涉及可能導致 Teradyne 的結果與管理層目前預期有重大差異的風險因素。我們鼓勵您查閱財報新聞稿中的安全港聲明，以及我們最近的 SEC 申報文件。此外，這些前瞻性陳述係以今日為準，我們不承擔因本次電話會議後發生之發展而更新其內容的義務。

During today's call, we'll make reference to non-GAAP financial measures. We've posted additional information concerning these non-GAAP financial measures, including reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure where available, on the Investor page of our website.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將提及非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。我們已在網站的投資人頁面張貼與這些非 GAAP 財務衡量指標相關的補充資訊，包括在可取得的情況下，與最直接可比的 GAAP 財務衡量指標之調節表。

Looking ahead between now and our next earnings call, Teradyne will be participating in technology or industrial-focused investor conferences hosted by Citi, Morgan Stanley, and Susquehanna.

展望從現在到下一次財報電話會議之間，Teradyne 將參加由 Citi、Morgan Stanley 與 Susquehanna 主辦、以科技或工業為主題的投資人研討會。

Now let's get on with the rest of the agenda. First, Mark will comment on our recent results and the market conditions as we enter the new year. Sanjay will then offer more details on our results along with our guidance for the first quarter. We'll then answer your questions. And this call is scheduled for 1 hour.

現在讓我們繼續接下來的議程。首先，Mark 將評論我們近期的結果，以及我們進入新年度時的市場狀況。接著 Sanjay 將提供更多結果細節，並說明我們對第一季的指引。之後我們將回答各位的問題。本次電話會議預計為 1 小時。

Mark?

Mark？

Good morning, and thanks for joining us. In our call today, I'll summarize 2001's (sic) [2021's] 4th quarter and the full year and then comment on our early view of 2022. Sanjay will then provide the financial details and review our updated earnings model and capital allocation plans.

各位早安，感謝加入我們今天的電話會議。在今天的會議中，我將摘要 2001 年（原文誤植）（即 2021 年）第四季與全年表現，並分享我們對 2022 年的初步看法。接著 Sanjay 將提供財務細節，並回顧我們更新後的獲利模型與資本配置計畫。

While we forecast 2022 to be another solid year for Teradyne, overall sales will likely decline in the first half as we believe SOC test sales will be impacted by modest complexity growth in our largest market, as the jump to 3-nanometer production is pushed to 2023. More on that in a minute.

雖然我們預期 2022 年對 Teradyne 而言仍將是另一個穩健的一年，但整體銷售在上半年可能下滑，因為我們認為 SOC 測試銷售將受到我們最大市場中溫和的複雜度成長所影響，原因是 3 奈米量產的躍升被推遲到 2023 年。稍後我會再多談一些。

Recapping 2021. We finished the year strong, bringing full year sales, non-GAAP earnings growth to 19%, and sales growth to -- sorry, the sales growth of 19%, and GAAP earnings growth to 29%, respectively. 2021's performance was a result of broad-based growth across our Test and IA businesses. Semi Test sales grew about 17%, with our UltraFLEX family contributing to the expansion into the compute sector, and Eagle product lines serving the automotive and analog industrial sectors growing nearly 90%. For 2021, we estimate the SOC market was about $4.8 billion, up from $3.6 billion in 2020, which puts our market share at about 46% for the year.

回顧 2021 年。我們以強勁的態勢結束年度，全年銷售成長 19%，非 GAAP 獲利成長 19%，以及 GAAP 獲利成長 29%。2021 年的表現來自我們測試（Test）與工業自動化（IA）業務的廣泛成長。半導體測試（Semi Test）銷售約成長 17%，其中 UltraFLEX 產品家族推動我們擴展至運算（compute）領域，而 Eagle 產品線服務於車用與類比工業領域，成長近 90%。就 2021 年而言，我們估計 SOC 市場規模約為 48 億美元，高於 2020 年的 36 億美元，這使得我們全年市占率約為 46%。

The memory market in 2021 was about flat with 2020 at approximately $1 billion. Our Magnum family continues to shine in the NAND segment, and we're reinforcing our position in the DRAM segment as the industry prepares for LPDDR5 and DDR5 ramps in 2022 and beyond. Our share remains at about 40%.

2021 年的記憶體市場與 2020 年大致持平，約為 10 億美元。我們的 Magnum 產品家族在 NAND 區隔持續表現亮眼；同時，隨著產業為 2022 年及之後的 LPDDR5 與 DDR5 放量（ramps）做準備，我們也在 DRAM 區隔強化我們的地位。我們的市占率仍約為 40%。

LitePoint's wireless test business had a great year, growing 25% from 2020. The global demand for connecting and tracking, just about everything, machines, materials, and people is nearly insatiable. LitePoint is well aligned to this trend with products that simplify testing of the expanding range of wireless standards. Whether in networking with WiFi 6E and 7, in location tracking with ultra-wideband, in cellular with 5G, or numerous other standards, the rate of technology change continues unabated, which is great for our business.

LitePoint 的無線測試業務在 2021 年表現出色，較 2020 年成長 25%。全球對於連結與追蹤幾乎所有事物——機器、材料與人——的需求幾乎無止盡。LitePoint 透過可簡化日益擴大的無線標準測試之產品，與此趨勢高度契合。無論是在採用 WiFi 6E 與 7 的網路領域、採用超寬頻（ultra-wideband）的定位追蹤、採用 5G 的行動通訊，或是眾多其他標準，技術變化的速度仍持續不減，這對我們的業務非常有利。

Moving to our Industrial Automation business. At UR, sales were up 41% from 2020. We continue to expand the number of UR+ partners and certified plug-and-play apps with assembly, machine tending and palletizing among the most popular of the more than 375 available apps. We also continue to broaden our reach beyond existing markets, often with OEM partners. One exceptional example is our expansion into welding applications, where we finished the year with a growth of more than 3x above 2020 levels. Welding applications now account for more than 6% of UR sales.

接著談我們的工業自動化業務。在 UR，銷售較 2020 年成長 41%。我們持續擴大 UR+ 合作夥伴與通過認證的即插即用（plug-and-play）應用程式數量，其中組裝、機台上下料（machine tending）與棧板堆疊（palletizing）是超過 375 個可用應用中最受歡迎的幾項。我們也持續在既有市場之外拓展觸及範圍，且經常與 OEM 夥伴合作。一個特別突出的例子是我們在焊接應用的擴張：我們在年底的成長超過 2020 年水準的 3 倍。焊接應用目前占 UR 銷售的 6% 以上。

At MiR, full year sales grew 42% from 2020 on the strength of our new higher payload MiR250, 600 and 1,350 kilogram AMRs. It's also notable that the value of MiR AMRs with advanced fleet management software is amplified as the size of the robot fleet grows. We saw this play out last year with large account sales, those with the potential to deploy hundreds of units, growing nearly 50% faster than the installed base at large.

在 MiR，受惠於我們新推出的更高載重 MiR250、600 與 1,350 公斤 AMR（自主移動機器人），全年銷售較 2020 年成長 42%。同樣值得注意的是，隨著機器人車隊規模擴大，搭配先進車隊管理軟體的 MiR AMR 之價值會被放大。我們去年在大型客戶銷售上看到這一點——也就是那些有潛力部署數百台的客戶——其成長速度比整體已安裝基礎（installed base）快了將近 50%。

Looking ahead to 2022, the long-term drivers that power our growth in Test and Industrial Automation are strong. In fact, as you will hear from Sanjay, our updated 2024 earnings model reflects an expected higher growth in sales and profits for both areas. However, in 2022, while we expect our IA business to power along with 35%-plus growth, we see our SOC business likely contracting during the year as the shift to 3-nanometer volume production is pushed to 2023. You can begin to see some of this effect in our 1Q guidance as we usually see the beginnings of our summer ramp in March.

展望 2022 年，驅動我們測試與工業自動化長期成長的動能依然強勁。事實上，正如您將從 Sanjay 那裡聽到的，我們更新後的 2024 年獲利模型反映出兩大領域的銷售與獲利預期將有更高的成長。然而在 2022 年，雖然我們預期 IA 業務將以 35% 以上的成長持續推進，但我們認為 SOC 業務在年度內可能收縮，因為 3 奈米量產的轉換被推遲到 2023 年。您可以在我們第一季指引中開始看到部分影響，因為我們通常在 3 月會看到夏季拉升（summer ramp）的開端。

We expect 2Q to show similar effects as it's usually our peak tooling period for our largest market. As a result, we are modeling first half sales down 15% to 20%. We don't expect the impact of this to extend into second half. We expect demand to accelerate again in 2023 as we begin to see the complexity growth related to investments for 3-nanometer gate-all-around and advanced packaging. Overall, we expect the 2022 SOC market to be similar in size to 2021 at approximately $4.6 billion to $5 billion.

我們預期第二季將呈現類似影響，因為那通常是我們最大市場的工具（tooling）高峰期。因此，我們的模型預估上半年銷售將下滑 15% 至 20%。我們不預期此影響會延伸到下半年。我們預期 2023 年需求將再度加速，因為我們將開始看到與 3 奈米環繞閘極（gate-all-around）及先進封裝投資相關的複雜度成長。整體而言，我們預期 2022 年 SOC 市場規模將與 2021 年相近，約為 46 億至 50 億美元。

Shifting to memory test. We expect the market in 2022 to be in the $900 million to $1.1 billion range with a midpoint that's similar to 2021. We expect spending will be weighted toward DRAM as LPDDR5 adoption expands and DDR5 for server applications ramp. In the past, a shift to spending in DRAM would be a significant headwind for us, but we expect we'll maintain our share at about 40% in 2022 as our Magnum EPIC DRAM tester grows in market popularity.

轉向記憶體測試。我們預期 2022 年市場規模將落在 9 億至 11 億美元區間，其中點與 2021 年相近。我們預期支出將偏向 DRAM，因為 LPDDR5 的採用擴大，以及伺服器應用的 DDR5 放量。在過去，支出轉向 DRAM 對我們而言會是顯著逆風，但我們預期 2022 年將維持約 40% 的市占率，因為我們的 Magnum EPIC DRAM 測試機在市場上的受歡迎程度持續提升。

In System Test, after 5 years of high growth driven by the Storage Test product line, we expect 2022 to be a digestion year with sales softening slightly. Wireless Test at LitePoint, however, is expected to fill that revenue gap, so we expect the combined System Test and Wireless Test will be about flat with 2021.

在系統測試（System Test）方面，在由儲存測試（Storage Test）產品線帶動的 5 年高速成長之後，我們預期 2022 年將是消化（digestion）的一年，銷售將略為走軟。然而，LitePoint 的無線測試（Wireless Test）預期將填補該營收缺口，因此我們預期系統測試與無線測試合計將與 2021 年大致持平。

Shifting from Test to Industrial Automation. Our business outlook is brighter than ever. As I noted in our last call, the penetration rate of both collaborative robots and autonomous mobile robots is under 3%. The economic environment is favorable with worker shortages, the movement of production capacity closer to end markets, and a relentless drive for higher quality and safer operations, all helping to drive demand. The opportunity in front of us is immense, and we are investing to exploit it to the fullest.

從測試轉向工業自動化。我們的業務展望比以往任何時候都更為光明。正如我在上次電話會議中提到的，協作機器人與自主移動機器人的滲透率都低於 3%。在勞動力短缺、產能向終端市場靠近的趨勢，以及對更高品質與更安全作業的持續追求等因素帶動下，整體經濟環境有利，並共同推升需求。我們面前的機會極其龐大，我們正加大投資，以最充分地把握這一機會。

At the IA segment level, we've increased our long-term revenue growth rate and expect our sales in 2022 to grow more than 35% off of 2021. Sanjay will provide the long-term modeling details, but the key point is the investments we've made and will continue to make position us for both short- and long-term success in this expanding market.

在 IA 事業部層級，我們已上調長期營收成長率，並預期 2022 年銷售額相較 2021 年成長超過 35%。Sanjay 將提供長期模型的細節，但重點在於：我們已投入且將持續投入的各項投資，使我們在這個持續擴張的市場中，同時具備短期與長期成功的有利位置。

Expanding OEM relationships and served markets is a key part of our strategy. Like the welding initiative that is bearing fruit, we have several others in flight. One example is in e-commerce. One of our partners, Nimble Robotics, uses AI, unique grippers, and clever software on our UR cobot platform to pick consumer goods and high-volume warehouse operations for numerous national brands. You may have seen the recent Wall Street Journal article complete with photos of the solution in action. Their innovative solution, dubbed 'goods to robot', complements automated storage and retrieval systems widely used in e-commerce. Our cobot ease of use and durability are a natural for this application. Well over 15 million items across 500,000 unique products have been picked to date as Nimble executes an ambitious growth plan in the e-commerce space.

擴大 OEM 合作關係與服務市場是我們策略的關鍵部分。如同已開始開花結果的焊接計畫，我們還有數個計畫正在推進中。其中一個例子是在電子商務領域。我們的合作夥伴之一 Nimble Robotics，在我們的 UR 協作機器人（cobot）平台上，運用 AI、獨特的夾爪與巧妙的軟體，為多個全國性品牌執行消費品揀選與高吞吐量倉儲作業。您可能看過近期《華爾街日報》的報導，並附有該解決方案實際運作的照片。他們的創新方案被稱為「goods to robot（貨到機器人）」，可與電子商務中廣泛使用的自動化儲存與取貨系統相互補強。我們協作機器人的易用性與耐用性非常適合此應用。迄今為止，隨著 Nimble 在電子商務領域推動雄心勃勃的成長計畫，已完成超過 1,500 萬件商品、涵蓋 50 萬種獨特產品的揀選。

Another driver of growth in IA has been the growing use of UR cobots to improve the competitiveness of local manufacturing to support reshoring of production. Pentik, a Finnish maker of high-quality ceramics, is a good example. They've added automation to allow skilled craftspeople to focus on high-volume and high-value tasks, while UR cobots do the repetitive and physically demanding ones, such as glazing and finishing of ceramics.

IA 成長的另一個驅動因素，是 UR 協作機器人日益被用來提升在地製造的競爭力，以支持生產回流（reshoring）。芬蘭高品質陶瓷製造商 Pentik 就是一個很好的例子。他們導入自動化，讓熟練工匠能專注於高產量與高價值的工作，而由 UR 協作機器人負責重複性與體力負荷較高的作業，例如陶瓷的上釉與精加工。

To summarize, 2021 was another year of impressive growth at Teradyne and caps a 5-year stretch where sales and non-GAAP earnings have grown at a compounded rate of 16% and 32%, respectively. As we've said before, we've managed the business to a trend line model. Our updated 2024 earnings model shows improved growth trend lines reflecting our increasing confidence in the business. These projections are not hockey sticks. They are consistent with our past performance and correlated to investment trends in semiconductor capacity and automation market drivers. Along the way, we expect some years will perform above the trend line and other years below. In Test, 2020 and 2021 were above trend line years, while 2022 will likely be below.

總結而言，2021 年是 Teradyne 另一個令人印象深刻的成長年度，也為過去 5 年的成長期畫下句點；在此期間，銷售額與非 GAAP 盈利分別以 16% 與 32% 的複合成長率成長。正如我們先前所說，我們以趨勢線模型來管理業務。我們更新後的 2024 年盈利模型顯示更佳的成長趨勢線，反映我們對業務信心的提升。這些預測並非「曲棍球棒式」的暴衝成長；它們與我們過去的表現一致，並與半導體產能投資趨勢及自動化市場驅動因素相互關聯。在此過程中，我們預期某些年度會高於趨勢線，另一些年度則會低於趨勢線。在測試業務方面，2020 與 2021 年高於趨勢線，而 2022 年很可能低於趨勢線。

These year-to-year swings in customer buying patterns are a part of our market dynamics. Our underlying business model with outsourced manufacturing in Test is designed to efficiently absorb these dynamics. Also, our good and improving gross margins give us increasing leverage within this dynamic. The growth in volume and complexity of semiconductors that propels the test market is stronger than ever. Our Industrial Automation portfolio is well positioned against macro trends and back to high growth. All these dynamics should net out to attractive midterm growth of both sales and earnings.

客戶採購模式的年度間波動是我們市場動態的一部分。我們在測試業務採用外包製造的基礎商業模式，旨在有效吸收這些動態。此外，我們良好且持續改善的毛利率，使我們在此動態環境中具備更高的槓桿效益。推動測試市場的半導體出貨量與複雜度成長比以往任何時候都更強勁。我們的工業自動化產品組合在宏觀趨勢下具備良好定位，並已回到高成長軌道。綜合上述動態，預期將帶來銷售與盈利在中期皆具吸引力的成長。

With that, I turn it over to Sanjay for more details. Sanjay?

接下來我把時間交給 Sanjay，請他提供更多細節。Sanjay？

Thank you, Mark. Good morning, everyone. Today, I'll cover the financial highlights of Q4 and review the financial details of 2021. Looking forward, I'll provide our Q1 outlook and update our midterm earnings model and our capital allocation plans.

謝謝你，Mark。各位早安。今天我將說明第四季的財務重點，並回顧 2021 年的財務細節。展望未來，我會提供第一季展望，並更新我們的中期盈利模型與資本配置計畫。

Now to Q4. Revenues were $885 million, and we delivered a non-GAAP operating profit of 31% and EPS of $1.37. Semi Test revenue of $592 million was strong across the board with notable demand for apps processor, and RF test, and SOC, and higher speed flash test in memory. System Test group had revenue of $127 million, up 23% year-over-year, driven by higher sales in Storage Test and defense and aerospace. LitePoint revenue of $52 million was up over 31% and from the year-ago period on WiFi 6E and early WiFi 7 test demand. Industrial Automation revenue of $113 million was up 23% from the fourth quarter of last year on strong demand at both UR and MiR.

先看第四季。營收為 8.85 億美元，我們交出非 GAAP 營業利益率 31% 與每股盈餘（EPS）1.37 美元。半導體測試（Semi Test）營收 5.92 億美元，各領域表現強勁，其中應用處理器、RF 測試、SOC，以及記憶體中更高速的快閃測試需求尤為突出。系統測試事業群營收 1.27 億美元，年增 23%，主要由儲存測試以及國防與航太領域的較高銷售所帶動。LitePoint 營收 5,200 萬美元，較去年同期成長逾 31%，主要受 WiFi 6E 與早期 WiFi 7 測試需求帶動。工業自動化營收 1.13 億美元，較去年第四季成長 23%，UR 與 MiR 需求皆強勁。

Non-GAAP gross margins were 59.5%, on plan and down quarter-over-quarter due to lower volume and product mix. You'll see our non-GAAP operating expenses were up $11 million to $253 million from the third quarter due primarily to ongoing Industrial Automation investments. We generated $302 million in free cash in the fourth quarter. The non-GAAP tax rate, excluding discrete items for the quarter, was 13.6%, and on a GAAP basis was 14.75%. For the full year, it was 14.5% on a non-GAAP basis and 14.75% on a GAAP basis.

非 GAAP 毛利率為 59.5%，符合計畫，但因出貨量較低與產品組合影響，較前一季下滑。您會看到我們的非 GAAP 營業費用較第三季增加 1,100 萬美元至 2.53 億美元，主要原因是持續投入工業自動化。我們在第四季產生 3.02 億美元自由現金流。非 GAAP 稅率（排除當季一次性項目）為 13.6%，GAAP 基礎為 14.75%。全年而言，非 GAAP 稅率為 14.5%，GAAP 稅率為 14.75%。

We ended the year with cash and marketable securities of $1.5 billion. Regarding debt to date, $343 million of our convertible bond has been redeemed early and repaid. We have a remaining face value of $117 million.

年底我們持有的現金與有價證券為 15 億美元。就目前的債務而言，我們的可轉換公司債已有 3.43 億美元提前贖回並償還，剩餘面額為 1.17 億美元。

Turning to the full year results of 2021. Teradyne revenues of $3.7 billion grew $581 million or 19% year-over-year. $485 million of the growth was from our Test portfolio, while IA delivered $96 million of growth. We had one customer that directly or indirectly drove approximately 19% of our revenue in 2021. Gross margins for the year were 59.6%, and operating profit was 33%, up from 57.2% and 30%, respectively, in 2020. Non-GAAP EPS was $5.98, a 29% increase over 2020.We generated $966 million in free cash in 2021 and returned $666 million through share repurchases and dividends.

接著看 2021 年全年結果。Teradyne 營收 37 億美元，年增 5.81 億美元或 19%。其中 4.85 億美元的成長來自我們的測試產品組合，而 IA 貢獻 9,600 萬美元的成長。2021 年我們有一位客戶直接或間接貢獻約 19% 的營收。全年毛利率為 59.6%，營業利益率為 33%，分別高於 2020 年的 57.2% 與 30%。非 GAAP EPS 為 5.98 美元，較 2020 年成長 29%。2021 年我們產生 9.66 億美元自由現金流，並透過庫藏股回購與股利發放回饋股東 6.66 億美元。

Looking more closely at the components of 2021 revenue growth. As Mark outlined, SOC test revenues grew $371 million or 20% on strength in all market segments, but with particular growth in the compute, industrial, and automotive markets. In memory, revenues were $396 million, up 3%. NAND test demand drove the growth in 2021. In System Test sales, sales grew for the fifth consecutive year to $468 million, up 14% from 2020. All subsegments of System Test grew in 2021 with Storage Test delivering the largest increase moving from $242 million in 2020 to $288 million in 2021.

更深入看 2021 年營收成長的組成。如 Mark 所述，SOC 測試營收增加 3.71 億美元或 20%，各市場區隔皆強勁，尤其在運算、工業與車用市場成長更為突出。在記憶體方面，營收為 3.96 億美元，成長 3%。2021 年的成長主要由 NAND 測試需求帶動。在系統測試銷售方面，銷售額連續第五年成長至 4.68 億美元，較 2020 年增加 14%。2021 年系統測試的所有子領域皆成長，其中儲存測試增幅最大，從 2020 年的 2.42 億美元提升至 2021 年的 2.88 億美元。

LitePoint is also on an impressive growth path. Sales increased to $217 million, 25% above 2020 and has grown at an 18% CAGR since 2016. Growth drivers included the production ramp of WiFi 6E, WiFi 7 engineering systems and UWB expansion. It's notable that UWB is early in its market penetration, and we expect a long-term growth trajectory as new applications for this technology emerge.

LitePoint 也正走在令人印象深刻的成長軌道上。銷售額提升至 2.17 億美元，較 2020 年高出 25%，自 2016 年以來的年複合成長率（CAGR）為 18%。成長動能包括 WiFi 6E 的量產爬坡、WiFi 7 工程系統，以及 UWB 的擴張。值得注意的是，UWB 仍處於市場滲透的早期階段；隨著此技術的新應用逐步出現，我們預期其將呈現長期成長軌跡。

In 2021, IA revenue was $376 million, up 34% from 2020's $280 million level. UR grew 41% to $311 million, while MiR grew 42% to $64 million.

2021 年，IA 營收為 3.76 億美元，較 2020 年的 2.80 億美元成長 34%。UR 成長 41% 至 3.11 億美元，而 MiR 成長 42% 至 6,400 萬美元。

AutoGuide sales were under $2 million in 2021 as we continue to reposition that group for sustainable long-term growth. In 2021, we managed through numerous supply constraints at UR and MiR without a material impact on sales. We expect those constraints to become more severe and expect they may impact the timing of some shipments in the first half of 2022. We've considered that in our guidance.

AutoGuide 2021 年銷售額低於 200 萬美元，因我們持續重新定位該團隊，以實現可持續的長期成長。2021 年，我們在 UR 與 MiR 面對多項供應限制，但未對銷售造成實質影響。我們預期這些限制將變得更為嚴峻，並可能影響 2022 年上半年部分出貨的時點。我們已在財測指引中納入此因素。

Now to our outlook for Q1. Sales are expected to be between $700 million and 777 -- sales are expected to be between $700 million and $770 million. Non-GAAP EPS range of $0.76 to $0.98 on 175 million diluted shares. First quarter guidance excludes the amortization of acquired intangibles, and a noncash imputed interest on the convertible debt. First quarter gross margins are estimated at 58.5% and 59.5%, first quarter OpEx running at 33% to 36% of first quarter sales. The non-GAAP operating profit rate at the midpoint of our first quarter guidance is 24%.

現在談談我們對第一季的展望。預期銷售額將介於7億美元至777——預期銷售額將介於7億美元至7.7億美元之間。以1.75億股稀釋後股數計算，非GAAP每股盈餘（EPS）區間為0.76美元至0.98美元。第一季指引不包含併購取得之無形資產攤銷，以及可轉換債務的非現金推算利息。第一季毛利率估計為58.5%至59.5%，第一季營業費用（OpEx）約為第一季銷售額的33%至36%。在第一季指引的中點，非GAAP營業利益率為24%。

Looking at 2022. Our first half 2022 outlook is down from 2021. This will be felt in the first and second quarters with expected Q2 company sales to be about 25% lower than Q2 '21 levels.

再看2022年。我們對2022年上半年的展望較2021年下修。這將反映在第一季與第二季，預期第二季公司銷售額將較2021年第二季水準低約25%。

Regarding our OpEx plans for 2022. OpEx growth of 11% to 13% is expected with the majority of the incremental growth in IA. This will likely put our OpEx above model in 2022 before coming back to model in '23. The OpEx investment this year is targeted at R&D to improve ease of use, broaden our robot product lines and strengthen our go-to-market capabilities, all in support of long-term sales and earnings growth.

關於我們2022年的營業費用（OpEx）規劃。預期OpEx將成長11%至13%，其中大部分的增量成長將來自IA。這可能使我們2022年的OpEx高於模型水準，並在2023年回到模型水準。今年的OpEx投資重點放在研發（R&D），以提升易用性、擴大我們的機器人產品線並強化我們的市場推進（go-to-market）能力，皆是為了支持長期的銷售與獲利成長。

Turning to capital expenditures. We expect CapEx to be approximately $160 million. For 2022, our GAAP and non-GAAP tax rate is estimated at 15% based on current tax laws.

接著談資本支出。我們預期CapEx約為1.6億美元。就2022年而言，我們的GAAP與非GAAP稅率在現行稅法下估計為15%。

Moving to our earnings model. We expect Test and IA growth will drive 2024 company revenue to $4.9 billion, and non-GAAP EPS to $8 at the midpoint of our updated model. Gross margin is estimated at 59% to 60%, a 100 basis point increase from the prior model and is based on product mix and operating leverage from higher revenue. OpEx as a percent of sales will decline to 26% to 28%, and non-GAAP operating margin expected will be 31% to 34%. The model assumes current tax laws. As shown on the supporting slide, the new model is in line with the trend line performance.

接下來談我們的獲利模型。我們預期Test與IA的成長將帶動2024年公司營收達49億美元，更新後模型的中點顯示非GAAP EPS為8美元。毛利率估計為59%至60%，較先前模型提高100個基點，係基於產品組合與更高營收帶來的營運槓桿。OpEx占銷售額比重將下降至26%至28%，預期非GAAP營業利益率為31%至34%。該模型假設現行稅法不變。如支援投影片所示，新模型與趨勢線表現一致。

Now let me provide a little color. With 2021 non-GAAP EPS of $5.98, we've achieved our previous 2024 earnings model 3 years early on the strength of our Test businesses. As we've done in the past, when building our earnings model, we consider the year-on-year demand swings that occur in both Test and IA, but we evaluate our growth on a trend line versus any specific year. Therefore, as in past models, we use the average of 2020 and 2021 revenue as the baseline for our projections. From that baseline, we expect Test revenue to grow at 7% to 11% compounded and IA revenues to grow 32% to 45% through 2024. Both growth rates are significant increases, both in absolute and relative terms from our earlier model.

我再補充一些說明。以2021年非GAAP EPS 5.98美元來看，憑藉我們Test業務的強勁表現，我們比原先的2024年獲利模型提早3年達成。如同過去在建立獲利模型時，我們會考量Test與IA兩個業務中每年需求波動，但我們以趨勢線而非任何特定年度來評估成長。因此，與過去模型相同，我們以2020年與2021年營收的平均作為預測基準。在此基準上，我們預期Test營收至2024年將以7%至11%的複合成長率成長，IA營收將以32%至45%的複合成長率成長。這兩個成長率相較我們先前模型，無論在絕對值或相對幅度上，都是顯著提升。

In Semi Test, we expect long-term growth will be driven by the steady increase in device complexity across our businesses along with high single-digit semiconductor unit growth. The transition to 3-nanometer and gate-all-around technologies will drive complexity growth and higher transistor densities, increased test data collection for process yield learning and longer test times.

在半導體測試（Semi Test）方面，我們預期長期成長將由各業務中裝置複雜度的穩定提升，以及半導體出貨量的高個位數成長所驅動。向3奈米與環繞閘極（gate-all-around）技術的轉換，將推動複雜度提升與更高的電晶體密度、增加為製程良率學習而蒐集的測試資料，以及更長的測試時間。

The complexity point is illustrated by looking at the recent market size trends. When taking an average of 2018 and 2019, the ATE market size was approximately $4 billion. In '21 and '22, the average will be approximately $6 billion. Our earnings model assumes continued growth in the ATE market, and we believe WFE CapEx is a leading indicator of future test demand. This capacity is being put in place to service favorable semiconductor end market trends.

複雜度的觀點可從近期市場規模趨勢看出。以2018年與2019年的平均來看，ATE市場規模約為40億美元；在2021年與2022年，平均約為60億美元。我們的獲利模型假設ATE市場持續成長，且我們認為晶圓廠設備（WFE）資本支出（CapEx）是未來測試需求的領先指標。這些產能正在建置，以服務半導體終端市場的有利趨勢。

First, the compute market is benefiting from the growth of both x86 and ARM-based solutions in higher-performing solutions at a faster cadence than in the past. The ARM solutions include new hyperscale applications along with AI devices for the data center and edge compute. Second, automotive market has elevated to a higher level. Increases in electric and autonomous driving are pushing the growth in complexity and number of chips per car. Third, the analog industrial end market is expected to continue to operate at a higher level as the digitization of industry continues to broaden.

第一，運算市場受惠於x86與ARM架構解決方案的成長，且在更高效能解決方案上的推進節奏較以往更快。ARM解決方案包含新的超大規模（hyperscale）應用，以及用於資料中心與邊緣運算的AI裝置。第二，車用市場已提升至更高水準。電動化與自動駕駛的提升，推動每輛車的晶片複雜度與晶片數量成長。第三，類比工業終端市場預期將持續維持在較高水準，因為產業數位化持續擴大。

In IA, we're attacking an attractive and sustainable long-term growth opportunity. The market penetration of cobots and autonomous mobile robots remains below 3%, while the range of applications they economically serve continues to expand. Our strategy is to drive penetration higher in existing markets, and grow the number of new applications in new industry verticals.

在IA方面，我們正切入一個具吸引力且可持續的長期成長機會。協作機器人（cobots）與自主移動機器人（autonomous mobile robots）的市場滲透率仍低於3%，而它們能以具經濟效益方式服務的應用範圍仍在擴大。我們的策略是在既有市場提高滲透率，並在新的產業垂直領域中增加新的應用數量。

To enable this strategy, we continue to lean into our OpEx investments. We'll operate the IA business with a target operating margin of 5% to 15%, while we invest to drive growth and reinforce our competitive position. We don't expect the growth rate to moderate in the midterm. But at the point in the future that it does, we'll dial back the OpEx growth and expect operating margins above 20%. In 2022, we expect we'll operate towards the low end of the 5% to 15% range.

為了推動此策略，我們持續加大OpEx投資。我們將以5%至15%的目標營業利益率來經營IA業務，同時投資以推動成長並鞏固競爭地位。我們不預期中期成長率會放緩。但在未來某個時點一旦放緩，我們將下調OpEx成長，並預期營業利益率可高於20%。在2022年，我們預期將朝5%至15%區間的低端運作。

Shifting to capital allocation. We'll continue our balanced strategy. This year, we'll increase our quarterly dividend by 10% to $0.11 per share in 2022.

接著談資本配置。我們將持續採取均衡策略。今年我們將在2022年把季度股利提高10%，至每股0.11美元。

Regarding our share repurchases. In 2021, we bought back [4] million shares for $600 million at an average price of $125.74. In 2022, we expect a minimum of $750 million of repurchases, reflecting our confidence in our operating model and the end markets we serve.

關於庫藏股回購。2021年，我們以平均價格125.74美元回購了[4]百萬股，總金額6億美元。2022年，我們預期至少回購7.5億美元，反映我們對營運模型以及所服務終端市場的信心。

In summary, 2021 was a record year for sales and earnings. Our global team continued to deliver extraordinary results in a challenging environment. The team's success in balancing customer demand and business needs amidst a constantly changing collection of pandemic-induced constraints was impressive. As we look ahead, long-term growth trends in our end markets remain strong and we've updated our earning model to reflect that outlook. While we expect 2022 will be below the long-term revenue and earnings growth trend lines, we're confident in the long-term trends in our markets and our ability to thrive in them.

總結來說，2021年是銷售與獲利的創紀錄年度。我們的全球團隊在充滿挑戰的環境中持續交出卓越成果。團隊在疫情引發、且不斷變動的一系列限制下，仍能在客戶需求與業務需求之間取得平衡，其表現令人印象深刻。展望未來，我們終端市場的長期成長趨勢依然強勁，我們也更新了獲利模型以反映該展望。雖然我們預期2022年將低於長期營收與獲利成長趨勢線，但我們對市場的長期趨勢以及我們在其中茁壯的能力充滿信心。

With that, I'll turn things back to Andy.

接下來我把時間交回給Andy。

Thanks, Sanjay. Michelle, we'd now like to take some questions. (Operator Instructions) Thank you.

謝謝你，Sanjay。Michelle，我們現在想開始回答一些問題。（接線員指示）謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from the line of Mehdi Hosseini with SIG.

（接線員指示）我們的第一個問題來自SIG的Mehdi Hosseini。

I think it would be great if you could give us some more detail as it relates to your largest customer. Your commentary on 2021 and 19% contribution is insightful, but given your guide for '22, you suggest that we're in a 2-year digestion period. I understand the 3-nanometer, which has been known for 6 months, but I think expectation was for higher unit shipment for that particular customer to make up for push out in 3-nanometer, and it seems like that's not enough. And again, we go back to 2-year digestion and I am wondering if you can comment on what I just said and I have a follow-up.

我想如果你能就你們最大客戶相關情況提供更多細節會很有幫助。你對2021年以及19%貢獻度的評論很有洞見，但考量你們對2022年的指引，你似乎暗示我們正處於為期兩年的消化期。我理解3奈米，這在6個月前就已為人所知，但原本的預期是該客戶會有更高的出貨量來彌補3奈米的遞延，而看起來這樣仍不夠。再者，我們又回到兩年的消化期，我想請你評論我剛才所說的內容，我還有一個追問。

Sure, Mehdi. Of course, I'm not going to divulge too much about our specific customer because that wouldn't be appropriate, but I'll give you some additional color.

當然，Mehdi。當然我不會透露太多關於特定客戶的細節，因為那並不適當，但我可以提供一些額外的背景說明。

So I wouldn't call last year a digestion period, first of all. Last year, we had tremendous growth outside of that concentration, which sort of brought their portion of our revenue from the low 20s down below 20%. So it's really growth elsewhere that drove them down a bit versus digestion. The phenomena this year is something that has been in -- whether -- we attribute it to a variety of things such as complexity growth due to unit volume. I think I don't want to comment too much about that because, again, it gets into some proprietary information. But the latest news we have is that, as we've indicated, there will be a pretty significant reduction here in the first half of the year, which is usually the big ramp of tooling for the fall launch of new products.

首先，我不會把去年稱為消化期。去年我們在該集中度之外的業務有非常強勁的成長，這使得他們占我們營收的比重從20%出頭降到20%以下。因此，與其說是消化，不如說是其他領域的成長讓他們的占比略為下降。今年出現的現象，無論我們將其歸因於多種因素，例如因出貨量帶來的複雜度提升等。我不想對此評論太多，因為同樣會涉及一些專有資訊。但我們最新掌握的消息是，如同我們所指出的，今年上半年將出現相當顯著的下滑；而上半年通常是為了秋季新產品發表而進行設備導入（tooling）的大幅拉升期。

And we've quantified that as best we can. The second half we don't see. But typically, tooling starts in March. It peaks in the second quarter and a little bit dribbles into July. So that's where we'll feel the impact.

而且我們已盡可能把它量化。下半年我們看不到。但通常，治具（tooling）會在三月開始，於第二季達到高峰，並有一小部分延續到七月。所以我們會在那段期間感受到影響。

Got it. And just a quick follow-up on IA. And Sanjay mentioned that for '22, operating margin is targeted at 5% at the low end. Perhaps you can give us some color on the ROIC difference between IA and automated test. And what is it that you're looking at in the longer term that would make a continued OpEx investment in IA attractive and perhaps maybe ROIC or some other metrics could help us to better think about the investment that you're making?

了解。再快速追問一下 IA。Sanjay 提到 2022 年營業利益率目標在低端是 5%。也許你可以多談談 IA 與自動化測試之間 ROIC 的差異。另外，從更長期來看，你們在看的是什麼，會讓持續在 IA 上投入 OpEx 變得有吸引力？或許 ROIC 或其他指標能幫助我們更好地理解你們正在做的投資？

Yes. So Mehdi, it's Sanjay. So I think the latter part of the question first. As we see revenue continue to grow and with the penetration of the market of less than 3%, we are going to continue to invest in driving competitive advantage, broaden the portfolio, go-to-market -- across the board in engineering and go-to-market to continue to capture the market share.

是的。Mehdi，我是 Sanjay。我先回答問題的後半段。隨著我們看到營收持續成長，而且市場滲透率不到 3%，我們將持續投資以建立競爭優勢、擴大產品組合、強化 go-to-market——在工程與 go-to-market 各方面全面投入，以持續取得市占。

From a profitability or leverage perspective, moving more towards the ROIC comment is, fundamentally, when the market starts to slow and growth starts to slow at some time in the future, and we haven't considered that within our midterm, we don't see that growth moderating over the midterm with our 32% to 45% growth. At that point is when we will lower the investment.

從獲利或槓桿的角度、回到 ROIC 的評論，本質上是：當市場在未來某個時間點開始放緩、成長開始放緩時——而我們在中期規劃中尚未把這種情境納入，因為以我們 32% 到 45% 的成長，我們不認為中期會出現成長趨緩——到那個時候，我們才會降低投資。

I will comment another point on the ROIC is our gross margins in that segment are above the corporate average. So we'll start to see a much higher return on the invested capital when revenue starts to moderate, the growth starts to moderate. But fundamentally, we are leaning into OpEx to really capture that market.

我再補充一點關於 ROIC：我們該事業部的毛利率高於公司平均。因此當營收開始趨於平穩、成長開始趨緩時，我們會看到投入資本報酬率顯著提高。但從根本上說，我們目前是加大 OpEx 投入，以真正掌握那個市場。

And our next question comes from the line of John Pitzer with Credit Suisse.

下一題來自 Credit Suisse 的 John Pitzer。

Mark, last night, Advantest reported overnight, and I think it's always a little bit dangerous to compare because starting points can be different. But I think they guided kind of their view of the SOC market up about 16% this year versus yours of flat. I'm just trying to -- and it's off the same growth rate that you have for '21.

Mark，昨晚 Advantest 發布了最新訊息。我知道拿來比較總是有點危險，因為起點可能不同。但我認為他們對今年 SOC 市場的看法是成長約 16%，而你們的看法是持平。我想釐清一下——而且這是基於你們對 2021 年相同的成長率。

So I guess I'm just trying to square the circle as to whether or not I should view your guidance as being particularly conservative? Or is the way you square the circle just your relative customer concentration? And I guess if you look outside your largest customer, how do you see the SOC market trends for this year?

所以我想確認的是：我是否應該把你們的指引視為特別保守？或者你們用來解釋差異的原因只是你們相對較高的客戶集中度？另外，如果排除你們最大客戶，你們如何看待今年 SOC 市場的趨勢？

Yes. It's a good question. I saw those numbers, too. I think there's 2 phenomena that you've cited going on. I think we are a bit lower than them in terms of the annual market size guide. Part of that is due to the fact that probably what our largest concentration is doing this year is somewhat opaque to them. And so that's a factor that's probably not in their numbers.

是的，這是個好問題。我也看到了那些數字。我認為你提到的有兩個現象同時在發生。我們在年度市場規模的指引上確實比他們低一些。其中一部分原因是，我們最大集中客戶今年的動向對他們而言可能相對不透明，因此那個因素大概沒有反映在他們的數字裡。

And I do think if you look at the rest of the market, excluding that high concentration of ours, there is growth this year in the market, which is what we expect. So probably -- it's almost probably 50-50 that gives the difference.

而且我確實認為，如果你看市場的其他部分、排除我們那個高度集中的客戶，今年市場是有成長的，這也符合我們的預期。所以大概——幾乎可以說是 50-50 造成了這個差異。

That's helpful. And then Sanjay, just going back to Mehdi's question on the IA business. I think I understand the dynamic of growth rate to op margin. But is there sort of a revenue level of IA where you would expect to see scale take over? Or is this a business that the faster you're growing, the more you have to build out channels?

這很有幫助。接著 Sanjay，再回到 Mehdi 關於 IA 業務的問題。我想我理解成長率與營業利益率之間的動態。但 IA 是否存在某個營收規模，到了那個程度你會預期規模效益開始主導？還是說這是一個你成長越快、就越需要擴建通路的業務？

I'm just kind of curious, is there a revenue level that we can expect you guys hitting in some time out in the future that's just going to drive some natural operating leverage in that business?

我有點好奇：是否有一個營收水位，我們可以期待你們在未來某個時間達到，然後就會在該業務中帶來一些自然的營運槓桿？

Yes. And over the midterm, in our model, we are seeing a little bit of that play out as revenues grow. Sure, the fixed -- certain fixed costs are going to gain on that leverage. But I'd ask you to think about if -- as we grow into different verticals and the applications within those verticals, we're really building both engineering capability in our product, reducing friction in those different verticals of how we can get to reducing the time of implementation significantly.

是的。在中期來看，在我們的模型中，隨著營收成長，我們確實看到其中一部分正在發生。當然，某些固定成本會帶來槓桿效益。但我希望你這樣思考：當我們成長到不同的垂直領域，以及這些垂直領域內的各種應用時，我們其實是在建立產品的工程能力，並降低在不同垂直領域導入時的摩擦，讓導入時間能大幅縮短。

So a significant portion is tied to R&D as well as scaling the go-to-market in different territories and in different segments. But the quick answer is, as I said earlier, there is some of that scale we are seeing in the midterm, and we will see that come in. But I just wanted to reinforce the point that we continue and plan to continue to invest in broadening the portfolio, reducing friction of implementation, and really go-to-market investments.

因此，很大一部分與研發（R&D）相關，也與在不同地區、不同細分市場擴大 go-to-market 規模相關。但簡短的回答是：如我先前所說，我們在中期確實看到一些規模效益，且會逐步顯現。不過我也想再次強調，我們仍會、也計畫持續投資於擴大產品組合、降低導入摩擦，以及 go-to-market 投資。

And our next question comes from the line of Vivek Arya with Bank of America.

下一題來自美國銀行（Bank of America）的 Vivek Arya。

For my first one, I'm curious, Mark, how much does test intensity change as you move from 5 or 4 nanometers to 3-nanometers and gate-all-around? And is this a step function in '23 and then it stays flat in '24? Or is there a growth from '23 to '24?

第一個問題我想請教 Mark：當你從 5 或 4 奈米走到 3 奈米以及 GAA（gate-all-around）時，測試強度會改變多少？這會在 2023 年出現一個階躍式提升，然後在 2024 年維持持平嗎？還是 2023 到 2024 之間仍會有成長？

So just conceptually, how much does test intensity or complexity, whichever way you want to quantify it, change from 5, 4 nanometers to 3-nanometers and gate-all-around.

概念上來說，從 5、4 奈米到 3 奈米與 GAA，測試強度或複雜度——不論你想用哪種方式量化——會改變多少？

Okay. There's a couple of ways you can look at it. Maybe the economic way to look at it would just look at history a little bit. When we see a major node transition in the industry, you can see that the tester market, the ATE market and our revenue sort of grows faster than, let's say, 2 years into a node. So economically, if you look at that sort of -- and you can kind of see that in the charts we published with the earnings deck that shows the revenue trends against the trend line over time. Certain years are above the trend line, those tend to correlate to when new nodes get introduced. And the new nodes enable a big jump economically, a big jump in transistor count, and transistor count is what drives our business. More transistors means more test times, means more testers. But the last part of this is it takes a couple of years for a new node to sort of reach sort of its normalized volume.

好。有幾種看法。也許從經濟角度來看，可以先回顧一些歷史。當產業出現重大製程節點轉換時，你會看到測試機市場（tester market）、ATE 市場以及我們的營收，往往會比例如進入某個節點兩年後的時期成長更快。從經濟面來看——你也可以在我們隨財報簡報（earnings deck）發布的圖表中看到：圖表顯示營收趨勢相對於長期趨勢線的變化。某些年度會高於趨勢線，而那些通常與新節點導入的時間點相關。新節點在經濟上帶來很大的跳升、電晶體數量大幅增加，而電晶體數量正是驅動我們業務的因素。更多電晶體意味著更長的測試時間、也意味著需要更多測試機。但最後一點是，新節點需要幾年時間才能達到較為正常化的出貨量。

So in the first year of production, let's say it, 3-nanometer next year. Maybe 3-nanometer will grow to somewhere around 12% plus or minus of semiconductor revenue next year. Maybe it's 10%, maybe it's 13%, something like that. In 2024, it will continue to ramp and maybe it will represent closer to 20%, 25%. So we'll see a couple of years of benefit from 3-nanometer as it sort of grows in its contribution to the overall semiconductor revenue stream.

所以在量產的第一年——比如說明年是 3 奈米——3 奈米明年可能會成長到約占半導體營收的 12% 左右，上下浮動一些。可能是 10%，也可能是 13%，大概是那樣。到了 2024 年，它會持續爬坡，可能會更接近 20%、25%。因此，隨著 3 奈米對整體半導體營收貢獻占比提升，我們會看到它帶來幾年的效益。

Got it. And for my follow-up, I'm curious, what is your current exposure to 5G modems? And how should we think about how it evolves from 2023, both from a unit and a content perspective?

了解。那我的追問是：你們目前對 5G 數據機（modems）的曝險有多大？我們應該如何看待它從 2023 年開始的演變——不論是出貨量（unit）或內容價值（content）的角度？

Modems are a strong area for us. The dynamics are changing a bit there because more and more cell phone manufacturers are starting to build their own modems. So there's been a sort of a disaggregation of that market. And by and large, that's a positive trend for us because the -- the relative share position we have at, let's say, the established suppliers of modems was below our average share in the market. And our share at the disaggregated newcomers that are building their own modems is higher. So we look at that as a positive.

數據機對我們來說是很強的領域。那裡的動態正在有些改變，因為越來越多手機製造商開始自製數據機。因此市場出現某種程度的分散化（disaggregation）。整體而言，這對我們是正向趨勢，因為——我們在既有數據機供應商那邊的相對市占，低於我們在整體市場的平均市占；而在這些分散化後、開始自製數據機的新進者那邊，我們的市占更高。所以我們把這視為正面。

And is that contemplated in your '24 outlook? Or would that be incremental?

那這已經反映在你們對 2024 年的展望裡了嗎？還是會是額外增量？

It is complemented -- it is contemplated, yes.

它是互補的——是的，確實在考量之中。

And our next question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri with UBS.

下一個問題來自 UBS 的 Timothy Arcuri。

I'm wondering, Mark, can you break down the $4.8 billion SOC TAM in 2021 into the different segments, mobility, and compute, and autos, and industrial, and all those kind of things? And then also, can you give us some sense of if you assume the market is flat, which I'm going to ask you a follow-up, it's like hard to believe that the market would be just flat. But if you assume it is, can you talk about how you would see the mix shifting in '22? And then I had a follow-up as well.

我想請教一下，Mark，你能否把 2021 年 48 億美元的 SOC TAM 按不同區隔拆分一下，例如行動（mobility）、運算（compute）、汽車（autos）、工業（industrial）等等？另外，也請你談談，如果假設市場持平——我接下來會追問，因為很難相信市場會完全持平——但如果假設確實持平，你怎麼看 2022 年的組合（mix）會如何變化？我也還有一個追問。

Okay. I'll give you the numbers by the segments as we currently kind of see them today. And of course, these are estimates for 2022 and 2021 for that matter. But the compute market, as an example, we think last year was about a $1.1 billion ATE market, and we think that's going to grow this year to about $1.3 billion. So there's growth in the compute segment. Mobility last year was about $2 billion. We think that will come down to $1.8 billion. Much of that is due to our concentrated area. Automotive and MCU, we think, is flat at about $0.5 billion year-over-year. Industrial's down slightly probably, $600 million to $500 million. And then the service business will grow maybe $100 million from $600 million to $700 million.

好的。我會按我們目前今天所看到的區隔來提供數字。當然，這些都是對 2022 年以及 2021 年的估算。以運算市場為例，我們認為去年大約是 11 億美元的 ATE 市場，而我們認為今年會成長到大約 13 億美元。所以運算區隔是有成長的。行動去年大約是 20 億美元，我們認為會下滑到 18 億美元。其中很大一部分是因為我們的集中領域。汽車與 MCU，我們認為年對年持平在大約 5 億美元。工業可能小幅下滑，從 6 億美元到 5 億美元。然後服務業務可能會成長約 1 億美元，從 6 億美元到 7 億美元。

Got it. Okay. And then I guess I had a question just on -- I mean, having followed this industry for 25 years, the relationship, I mean, it doesn't hold true every year between WFE and tester market size. But some of maybe what you're seeing in the SOC market is because some of the WFE suppliers are struggling to get tools installed and whatnot. But once those tools get installed, you're going to have to test those chips. And if you compare the size of the SOC TAM to the size of the -- you compare non-memory to non-memory, you have a $60 billion to $65 billion non-memory WFE TAM this year. And if the SOC TAM is only $4.8 billion, I mean we've like never seen a ratio anywhere close to that low.

了解。好的。然後我想我有一個問題是關於——我的意思是，追蹤這個產業 25 年了，WFE 與測試機市場規模之間的關係並不是每年都成立。但你們在 SOC 市場看到的一些情況，可能是因為部分 WFE 供應商在工具安裝等方面遇到困難。不過一旦那些工具安裝完成，你就必須測試那些晶片。若把 SOC TAM 的規模與——把非記憶體對非記憶體來比，今年非記憶體 WFE TAM 大約是 600 億到 650 億美元。而如果 SOC TAM 只有 48 億美元，我們幾乎從未見過比率低到這種程度。

So it would either say that the number this year has to be a lot higher as that stuff gets installed or you make it up next year. Can you just sort of talk about that? I know that you guys look at those numbers, but it just seems sort of hard to believe that the ratio would be that low.

所以這要嘛表示今年隨著那些設備安裝到位，數字必須高很多；要嘛就是明年補回來。你能否談談這點？我知道你們也會看這些數字，但這個比率看起來實在很難相信會這麼低。

You're absolutely right. And the reason is kind of what you hinted at is the time it's taking to bring up 3-nanometer is longer than traditionally it's taken to bring up a new node. We're kind of stretching it into a 3-year window. So the tool -- a lot of the tools, by the way, have been put in place. Some are a little bit constrained by supply, but a lot of them have been put in place, but tuning the recipe, getting it ready for ramp, and then the cycle -- the process cycle time for the wafers themselves is longer.

你說得完全正確。原因正如你暗示的那樣：3 奈米導入（bring up）的時間比傳統上導入新節點所需的時間更長。我們某種程度上把它拉長到 3 年的時間窗。就設備而言——順帶一提，很多工具其實已經就位了。有些因供應而稍微受限，但很多都已經就位；然而，調校製程配方（recipe）、讓它準備好量產爬坡（ramp），以及——晶圓本身的製程週期時間也更長。

Once mass production switch turns on, it's incrementally longer to crank the wafers through the whole recipe than the prior node. So there is a throughput. So all of that kind of moves the impact of 3-nanometer to 2023. But the ratios that you talk about is why we've, we look at this carefully, too, and our midterm earnings model has increased so significantly compared to a year ago because all of this equipment going in to support this new technology is a bow-wave coming our way. And the only unfortunate thing is it's -- it didn't make it for 2022.

一旦量產開關打開，相較於前一個節點，把晶圓跑完整套配方所需的時間會逐步變得更長。因此會有吞吐量（throughput）的影響。所有這些因素，基本上把 3 奈米的影響推遲到 2023 年。但你提到的那些比率，也是我們為什麼會仔細看這件事；而且我們的中期獲利模型相較一年前大幅上修，因為為了支援這項新技術而投入的所有設備，正形成一波即將到來的需求浪潮（bow-wave）。唯一不幸的是——它沒有趕上 2022 年。

And our next question comes from the line of Atif Malik with Citi.

下一個問題來自 Citi 的 Atif Malik。

Mark, as a follow-up to Tim's prior question about the WFE relation, given that you have a very low or almost no exposure to x86-related spending, which is a very big portion of WFE this year and next year, I mean, how should we think about your test growth? I mean I think that correlation it probably breaks down because you don't have a lot of exposure there and they're spending a ton of spending from government and whatnot.

Mark，延續 Tim 先前關於 WFE 關係的問題，鑑於你們對 x86 相關支出的曝險非常低、甚至幾乎沒有，而 x86 其實是今年與明年 WFE 的很大一部分，那我們應該如何看待你們的測試成長？我想那個相關性可能會失效，因為你們在那邊曝險不大，但他們有大量支出，還有政府等方面的支出。

And then what about things like advanced packaging and heterogeneous compute, if you can talk about when the test attach rates become a meaningful driver for those end markets?

另外，像先進封裝（advanced packaging）與異質運算（heterogeneous compute）這些，如果可以的話，能否談談測試附掛率（test attach rates）何時會成為這些終端市場的有意義驅動因素？

Yes. So there's, let's say, Teradyne's growth and the market growth to think about. And the x86 world, for example, in 2022 was quite anemic whereas Teradyne's business was quite strong that year because of where we're concentrated and who -- which customers are tooling.

是的。所以可以從兩個層面來看：例如 Teradyne 的成長，以及市場的成長。以 x86 世界為例，2022 年其實相當疲弱，但 Teradyne 當年的業務卻相當強勁，因為我們的集中領域以及——哪些客戶在建置產能（tooling）。

So in 2022, the x86 world, I think, is going to be more robustly tooling than last year even. And we won't benefit much from that this year. So that, in fact, is a true dynamic. And then other things happening with advanced packaging and chiplets and all of that, those are moving, I would say, modestly into the market. They moved in cell phones a while ago, but in compute, that's something I think that we're probably not going to feel until 2024. Maybe 3-nanometer will come first and then the sort of more ubiquitous use of different kinds of advanced packaging will follow shortly thereafter. But the 2 things won't jump on top of each other just because the -- I think the yield concerns of 2 new technologies at once will keep them staggered.

所以在 2022 年，x86 世界我認為今年的建置會比去年更強勁，而我們今年不會從中受益太多。這確實是一個真實的動態。至於先進封裝、chiplets 等等其他事情，我會說它們正以相對溫和的速度進入市場。它們在手機上早就導入了，但在運算領域，我認為我們可能要到 2024 年才會明顯感受到。也許 3 奈米會先來，然後更普遍地使用各種先進封裝會在不久之後跟上。但這兩件事不會同時疊加發生，因為——我認為同時導入兩種新技術的良率疑慮，會讓它們錯開（staggered）。

Great. And as a follow-up for Sanjay, is there any impact from supply constraints in your guidance for the March quarter as other suppliers have talked about getting hit from labor shortages and freight-related issues?

很好。那接著追問 Sanjay，你們對 3 月季度的指引中，是否有任何來自供應限制的影響？因為其他供應商提到受到勞動力短缺與運輸相關問題的衝擊。

Sure. I'd say the supply impact in Q4, there's really no material supply impact on sales. But in Q1, I'd say we have about $30 million to $40 million worth of supply risk, which we've contemplated in our updated revenue guide. None of this will result in a share loss, it will just be pushed into Q2.

當然。我會說在第四季（Q4），供應面對銷售其實沒有實質性的影響。但在第一季（Q1），我會說我們大約有 3,000 萬到 4,000 萬美元的供應風險，我們已在更新後的營收指引中納入考量。這些都不會造成市占流失，只是會延後到第二季（Q2）。

But a little bit of commentary on the supply environment. Fundamentally, we see the supply tightening in 2022. Many more semiconductor players are going into formal allocation, which is incrementally -- indicate incremental tightness in the market in 2022. We were under the impression that in the second half of 2022 with the fab and substrate investments that the supply-demand dynamic would alleviate and the tightening would loosen. However, our view currently is that that's being pushed out to the first half of 2023, really based on the discussion with our supply chain partners. And so while the fab and substrate capital is being deployed and increasing supply, we still see tightness over 2022.

另外補充一些對供應環境的評論。從根本上來看，我們看到 2022 年供應持續收緊。更多半導體業者進入正式配給（formal allocation），這進一步——顯示 2022 年市場的緊俏程度加劇。我們原本以為在 2022 年下半年，隨著晶圓廠與載板（substrate）投資到位，供需動態會改善、緊縮會緩解。然而，目前我們的看法是，根據與供應鏈夥伴的討論，這個時間點被推遲到 2023 年上半年。因此，雖然晶圓廠與載板資本支出正在投入並增加供給，我們仍然看到 2022 年整體偏緊。

And our next question comes from the line of Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自 Goldman Sachs 的 Toshiya Hari。

I had two as well, one on the Semi Test side and the other on IA. Mark, I think in your prepared remarks, you talked about Eagle Test as sort of a platform growing 90% year-over-year. I think that's very consistent with some of the TAM numbers you just gave out in response to a prior question.

我也有兩個問題，一個關於半導體測試（Semi Test），另一個關於 IA。Mark，我想你在事先準備的發言中提到 Eagle Test 作為一個平台年對年成長 90%。我認為這與你剛才回覆前一個問題時給出的部分 TAM 數字非常一致。

Just curious how you're thinking about Eagle Test in '22. When we listen to your customers talk about their CapEx intentions, not only in wafer processing but also in test, the posture is really aggressive, right, whether it be TI or SD or microchip, I mean a long list of customers. Just curious how you're thinking about Eagle Test and why is your TAM estimate flattish year-over-year?

我只是好奇你如何看待 2022 年的 Eagle Test。當我們聽你們的客戶談他們的資本支出（CapEx）意圖時，不僅在晶圓製程，也包括測試端，態度都非常積極，對吧？不管是 TI、SD 或 Microchip，客戶名單很長。想請教你如何看 Eagle Test，以及為什麼你們的 TAM 估計看起來年對年相對持平？

Yes. So there's a couple of things going on there. So the Eagle Test product and the thing that we usually talk about, called automotive, tends to be more the traditional power-related semiconductor content in an automobile. And so as the supply chain needed to be replenished last year and automobile production started to come back up, a lot of the traditional airbag control, antilock brake control, all of those things drove Eagle demand. And we think this year for Eagle, for those kind of devices will be similar to what it was last year, so not growth. And as I said, the market as well, not growth.

是的。所以那裡有幾件事同時在發生。Eagle Test 產品以及我們通常談到、稱為汽車（automotive）的那一塊，往往更偏向汽車中較傳統、與電力相關的半導體內容。因此，隨著去年供應鏈需要補庫存、汽車產量開始回升，許多傳統的安全氣囊控制、防鎖死煞車控制等，這些都帶動了 Eagle 的需求。我們認為今年 Eagle 針對這類裝置的情況會與去年相近，也就是不成長。而如我所說，整體市場也是，不成長。

However, there's another thing that we're having a harder time classifying is automotive, which is the digital content of automobiles. We tend to put that at the moment in the compute market. And those advanced controllers are something that is more targeted and put on our UltraFLEX platform. So we are expecting to see some growth there for applications, automotive applications, their digital content. But for the moment, at least, because it's somewhat nascent and growing, it's bucketed in compute.

不過，還有另一件我們較難歸類為汽車（automotive）的事情，那就是汽車的數位內容。我們目前傾向把它歸在運算（compute）市場。而那些先進控制器更具針對性，並且會部署在我們的 UltraFLEX 平台上。因此，我們預期在那裡會看到一些成長，主要來自應用面、汽車應用的數位內容。但至少就目前而言，因為它仍較新且正在成長，所以被歸類在運算（compute）之中。

Got it. And then as my follow-up on the IA side, I guess I'm curious why wouldn't this business grow faster in the near term. I realize you've got supply constraints. But when you think about the business on a 3- to 5-year basis, 40-ish percent growth is certainly not bad growth. But given the penetration rate of cobots that you guys have talked about, the labor shortages, with wage inflation, I'm guessing payback periods are shorter.

了解。那我在 IA 這邊的追問是，我有點好奇為什麼這項業務在短期內不會成長得更快。我知道你們有供應限制。但當你以 3 到 5 年的角度來看，約 40% 的成長當然不算差。不過考量到你們談過的協作機器人（cobots）滲透率、勞動力短缺以及薪資通膨，我猜投資回收期應該更短。

So from a user perspective, I feel like it's a no-brainer, particularly with COVID and all these things going on. So is it manufacturing capacity? Is it distribution? I think in the past, you guys have talked about getting the word out is kind of an important dynamic as you grow that business. But why wouldn't this grow 60%, 70%, 80% as opposed to 35%, 40%?

所以從使用者角度來看，我覺得這幾乎是不用想的選擇，尤其在 COVID 以及這些事情同時發生的情況下。所以是製造產能嗎？是通路/分銷嗎？我記得過去你們提過，把訊息傳出去（getting the word out）在你們擴大這項業務時是一個重要的動態。但為什麼它不會成長 60%、70%、80%，而是 35%、40%？

Yes. That is the million-dollar question that I ask every day and -- because you're absolutely right. The dynamics are there. The ROI is there. Everything is there. The biggest obstacle to sort of faster growth is the unfortunate fact that to deploy a cobot takes a human and it takes a skilled human, a technician, today to spend some number of weeks depending on the application, putting it into production. And therefore, we're somewhat constrained by the same labor supply issues that all global industry is experiencing. We're growing that 30-plus percent a year, that army. It's not an army that we ourselves hire as much as it's an army that our distribution partners hire, and they are. But there's some practical limitation on how quickly they can hire and train.

是的。這就是我每天都在問的百萬美元問題——因為你說得完全正確。動能在那裡，投資報酬率（ROI）在那裡，一切條件都具備。阻礙更快成長的最大障礙，是一個不幸的事實：要部署一台協作機器人（cobot）需要人，而且今天需要一位有技能的人——技術員——依應用不同，可能要花上數週把它導入量產。因此，我們在某種程度上也受到全球產業都在經歷的同樣勞動力供給問題所限制。我們每年把那支隊伍擴大 30% 以上；那不是我們自己大量雇用的隊伍，而是我們的通路夥伴雇用的隊伍，而他們確實在做。但他們能夠雇用與訓練的速度，實務上仍有一些限制。

So the way out of this bottleneck is to make that deployment time quicker, and quicker, and quicker, which is why we are actually growing faster than we're growing the human fleet of people to install these things. So we've got to widen that gap. We have to get -- to grow 50% only takes 10% more people, for example, in the applications deployment space. But that's the biggest single thing and we're working on that. We're planning though. In the model we presented here, growing -- continuing to grow at this sort of 30% to 45% rate through 2024, we're assuming that every year we're going to make progress on that efficiency.

所以突破這個瓶頸的方法，就是讓部署時間更快、更快、再更快；這也是為什麼我們的成長速度其實快於安裝這些設備的人力隊伍成長速度。因此我們必須把這個差距拉大。舉例來說，要成長 50%，在應用部署領域可能只需要多 10% 的人力。但這是最大的單一因素，我們正在努力解決。在我們這裡提出的模型中，透過 2024 年持續以約 30% 到 45% 的速度成長，我們假設每一年都會在效率上取得進展。

And our next question comes from the line of C.J. Muse with Evercore.

下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 C.J. Muse。

I guess first question, Mark, if I go back to kind of your commentary 3, 4 months ago, it certainly sounded like the breadth of spending at your largest customer, combined with diversification and share gains elsewhere at kind of new ARM-based emerging players, gave you the confidence that even if your top customer were to decline in '22 that you'd still be well positioned. But now you're guiding to an SOC test market relative to advanced test that is $700 million lower, you told us that your largest customer was 19%, which is about $700 million.

我想先問第一個問題，Mark，如果我回到你大概 3、4 個月前的評論，當時聽起來你最大客戶的支出廣度，加上你們在其他地方的多元化與在新興 ARM 架構玩家那邊的市占提升，讓你有信心即使你們的最大客戶在 2022 年下滑，你們仍會處於有利位置。但現在你們對 SOC 測試市場（相對於先進測試）的指引比之前低了 7 億美元；你也告訴我們你最大客戶占比是 19%，約 7 億美元。

So are you basically telling us that you're taking your largest customer to 0 this year? And I guess why would that change so dramatically kind of in the last 3 to 4 months? I think that it was widely known that 3-nanometer was going to be a very kind of small node in '22, much larger in '23. So curious what really has changed in the last 3 to 4 months in your view.

所以你基本上是在告訴我們，你們今年把最大客戶做到 0 嗎？那我想問，為什麼在過去 3 到 4 個月內會出現如此劇烈的變化？我認為大家早就知道 3 奈米在 2022 年會是很小的節點，而在 2023 年會大很多。所以想了解在你看來，過去 3 到 4 個月到底改變了什麼。

Well, I think the -- certainly, the macro number around how much our largest customer represents as revenue last year is right, around $700 million at 19% of revenue. No, it's not going to 0. It's going to probably be below 10%. So the magnitude, I think, that the change that has occurred represents is larger than we would have expected. And I think that the transparency -- and even now, the amount of visibility into what that will be is still vague.

嗯，我想——當然，關於我們最大客戶去年占營收多少的總體數字是對的，大約 7 億美元、占營收 19%。不，它不會降到 0。它可能會降到 10% 以下。所以我認為，這次發生的變化幅度，比我們原先預期的更大。而且我想透明度——甚至到現在，對於它最終會是多少的能見度仍然模糊。

So it's not something that we typically get full confirmation of it until April of this year, so to speak. So we're kind of working on the most recent inputs that we've received. And I think they're fundamentally -- as I've said in the past, there's always multiple scenarios in flight with the area we're concentrated in as to how the year can play out. And there's a range of forecasts that we get that get updated along the way. And those can swing dramatically as they've done this time.

所以可以說，我們通常要到今年 4 月才會得到完整的確認。因此我們目前是根據最新收到的資訊在運作。我認為它在本質上——如我過去所說，在我們所聚焦的領域，關於一年會如何發展，總是同時存在多種情境。我們會收到一系列預測，並在過程中持續更新。而這些預測可能會像這次一樣出現劇烈擺動。

So I don't have any more insight than that or anything that I think is prudent to share around what changed with that large account. But I do think if you go from $700 million below 10%-ish probably this year, that's a big portion of the delta between perhaps what Advantest is guiding and we're guiding. And then we're down into 5% difference on a forecast for the year. And it could be either way, it could be either way. I don't think there's a lot of precision in that on our side or theirs, but I think we're pretty close.

所以我沒有更多洞見，或任何我認為適合分享的內容，來說明那個大客戶到底改變了什麼。但我確實認為，如果你從 7 億美元降到今年可能 10% 以下，這就是我們與 Advantest 指引差異之間很大一部分的落差。然後我們在全年預測上就只剩下 5% 的差異。而結果可能在任何一邊，可能在任何一邊。我不認為我們或他們在這方面有很高的精準度，但我覺得我們已經很接近了。

Very, very helpful. I guess my follow-up question on your target model. You're talking about Test revenues growing at a 7% to 11% CAGR. I'm assuming that that's kind of your underlying growth rate for Semi Test. And if I make that assumption, then your System Test, plus LitePoint, plus HDD, SD, revenues essentially are like down $200 million in 3 years' time. So I guess, are you assuming a slower kind of growth CAGR for Semi Test? Or is there something else going on in kind of the other bucket?

非常、非常有幫助。我接著想追問你們的目標模型。你們談到測試（Test）營收以 7% 到 11% 的年複合成長率（CAGR）成長。我假設那是你們對半導體測試（Semi Test）的基本成長率。如果我這樣假設，那麼你們的系統測試（System Test）加上 LitePoint、加上 HDD、SD 的營收，在 3 年後基本上是少了 2 億美元。所以我想問，你們是假設半導體測試（Semi Test）的 CAGR 較慢嗎？還是其他那個桶（other bucket）有別的因素？

Yes. It's Sanjay here. So yes. So overall Test is growing 7% to 11%. Obviously, Semi Test is the largest component of our Test portfolio. But think of our other businesses as growing marginally in Test, marginally at the same level or marginally a little bit higher.

是的，我是 Sanjay。是的，整體測試（Test）是以 7% 到 11% 成長。很明顯，半導體測試（Semi Test）是我們測試產品組合中最大的部分。但把我們其他業務想成是在測試（Test）中小幅成長，成長幅度大致相同，或是小幅高一些。

And our next question comes from the line of Krish Sankar with Cowen and Company.

下一個問題來自 Cowen and Company 的 Krish Sankar。

I have two of them. Mark, thanks for the color on the SOC market size by segment. You mentioned that compute should grow to about $1.3 billion from $1.1 billion last year. I'm just kind of curious if you can help give a little more color on that on the split between x86 and non-x86. And as one of the large U.S. IDMs start doing more foundry business, is that an opportunity where they would start looking at outside platforms versus in-house-designed SOC testers? And then I have a follow-up.

我有兩個問題。Mark，謝謝你對 SOC 市場規模按分項拆分的說明。你提到運算（compute）應該會從去年的約 11 億美元成長到約 13 億美元。我想請你再多補充一點，特別是 x86 與非 x86 之間的拆分。另外，隨著一家大型美國 IDM 開始做更多晶圓代工（foundry）業務，這是否是一個機會，讓他們開始考慮外部平台，而不是自家設計的 SOC 測試機？然後我還有一個追問。

Yes. I wouldn't attribute it all to x86. We use that as shorthand sometimes in these conversations, but there's other areas like graphics, chips, and FPGAs that are also part of that compute thing that are growing this year. So the collection of x86 plus graphics and FPGAs would be the driver of that. What was the second part of the question?

是的。我不會把這一切都歸因於 x86。我們在這些對話中有時會用它作為簡稱，但還有其他領域，例如圖形、晶片以及 FPGA，也都是今年成長的那個運算領域的一部分。所以，x86 加上圖形與 FPGA 的組合，會是推動因素。問題的第二部分是什麼？

Foundry.

晶圓代工。

Yes. So the thing is I do believe -- there's no doubt that if a company is getting into the foundry business, they're going to have to accommodate external test platforms. The only thing is that just because there's a new foundry player doesn't -- it sort of doesn't change the overall global market. They're just stealing share from some other foundry who would also buy commercial test equipment. The real question is for their internal product development, will they shift to commercial equipment where today they use in-house equipment. And that -- let's wait and see. It's -- we're not assuming that in any of our midterm plans.

是的。所以事情是這樣：我確實相信——毫無疑問，如果一家公司要進入晶圓代工業務，他們就必須支援外部測試平台。唯一的問題是，僅僅因為出現了一個新的晶圓代工玩家，並不——它某種程度上不會改變整體全球市場。他們只是從其他同樣會購買商用測試設備的晶圓代工廠那裡搶市佔。真正的問題在於，他們在內部產品開發上，是否會從目前使用自製設備，轉向使用商用設備。而這點——我們就拭目以待。——我們在任何中期規劃中都沒有把這件事納入假設。

So this plan through 2024 does not assume any of that. But you can imagine that the cost of continuing to invest in that is high. And the rate of the road map change now for x86 manufacturers is quite high. It used to be a very slow predictable cadence. And now the competition is heated up, and it's fast and furious, it's harder and harder for the internal tester group to keep up with that.

所以，這個到 2024 年的計畫並未假設任何這類情況。但你可以想像，持續投入那方面的成本很高。而且現在 x86 製造商的產品路線圖變動速度相當快。過去是非常緩慢、可預測的節奏。現在競爭升溫，節奏又快又猛，內部測試機團隊要跟上變得越來越困難。

So we don't assume it's going to happen, but I think the cards are sort of played in a way that suggests it's probably going to happen, maybe not by '24, but certainly out in the next 4 or 5 years. That would be my bet.

所以我們不假設它一定會發生，但我覺得情勢的發展方式顯示它很可能會發生，也許不是在 '24 年之前，但在接下來 4 到 5 年內肯定會。我會這麼押注。

Got it. Fair enough. Fair enough. Super helpful. And then just a quick follow-up, maybe a 2-part question, if I can. On the IA side, if throughput issue for you when as the industrial robotic folks start getting into down the tail or it seems like they might be faster than the cobot, is that an issue from your vantage point?

了解。合理。合理。非常有幫助。接著我再快速追問一下，如果可以的話，可能是兩個部分的問題。在 IA 這邊，當傳統工業機器人廠商開始往長尾市場切入，或看起來他們可能比協作機器人更快時，從你的角度看，這會是吞吐量方面的問題嗎？

And then just a quick follow-up is I think Advantest when they talk about SOC market, they include services in it. You guys do not. So is that a way of what you think services would be this year versus last year? Maybe that could explain a couple of hundred million dollar difference maybe.

然後再一個快速追問：我認為 Advantest 在談 SoC 市場時，會把服務也算進去。你們不會。所以你們怎麼看今年的服務相較於去年會是什麼情況？也許這可以解釋幾億美元的差異。

Yes. So first, on the speed of the robots question. Yes, traditional industrial robots tend to have much faster cycle times. They can pick, and move, and place things at a lightning speed. That's partly why they're dangerous, partly why they're in cages. They're kept away from people. And those products have been around for decades, frankly, decades. Collaborative robots is really opening up a whole new application space where those 20-year-old fast products couldn't perform for some reason, either because the cost of isolating them from humans was too high, or the flexibility that they had in terms of repeatability and such wasn't good enough, or the time to change over for a higher mix environment was onerous. If it's picking up one thing and moving one thing 1,000 times a minute for years, it's the right solution and it's been solved.

是的。先回答機器人速度的問題。是的，傳統工業機器人的週期時間通常快得多。它們可以以閃電般的速度抓取、移動、放置。這也是它們危險的部分原因，也是它們被關在護欄或籠子裡的部分原因——要讓它們遠離人。坦白說，這些產品已經存在了數十年，真的就是數十年。協作機器人正在開啟一個全新的應用空間，因為那些 20 年前的高速產品在某些情況下無法勝任：要嘛是把它們與人隔離的成本太高；要嘛是它們在重複精度等方面的彈性不夠；或是在高混合環境下換線所需時間太繁瑣。如果是撿起一個東西、移動一個東西，每分鐘 1,000 次，持續好多年，那就是正確的解決方案，而且早就被解決了。

So cobots is a brand new thing. It's all the places those things didn't make sense that we're opening up with cobots. And I think that's what's exciting. So I don't think there's any news there. And your last question was service in the TAM, yes.

所以協作機器人是一個全新的事物。我們用協作機器人正在打開的是那些過去不合理的場景。我覺得這才是令人興奮的地方。所以我不認為那裡有什麼新消息。你最後一個問題是把服務納入 TAM，是的。

I think we estimated somewhere in the $600 million to $700 million range. I frankly don't know what Advantest estimates on that, but it's probably close.

我想我們估計大約在 6 億到 7 億美元的區間。坦白說我不知道 Advantest 對此的估計是多少，但可能差不多。

And operator, we have time for just one more question, please.

接線員，我們只剩下一個問題的時間了，謝謝。

All right. Then our last question will come from the line of Brian Chin with Stifel.

好的。那我們最後一個問題將由 Stifel 的 Brian Chin 這條線提出。

I may just ask a few questions. I guess, first, on the Semi Test side, on a quarterly basis, Mark, it looks like the year-over-year declines might bottom out in 2Q and certainly first half. But I guess, off this lower first half revenue base, has it been unfair to expect unit seasonality? Or do you think a typical sort of 52%, 48% first half, second half relationship still applies given sort of your views for the TAM this year?

我可能會問幾個問題。我想，首先，在半導體測試（Semi Test）這邊，以季度來看，Mark，看起來年對年下滑可能會在第二季觸底，至少在上半年會是如此。但我想問的是，在上半年這個較低的營收基礎之上，期待出貨量的季節性是否不太公平？或者就你對今年 TAM 的看法而言，典型的上半年 52%、下半年 48% 這種關係仍然適用嗎？

Yes. The second -- we've proven in the last 2 years that we're not good forecasting the second half of the year. But because of this abnormality in the first half, I would expect on average that you're going to see a little more of a second half weighting because we kind of have this a little bit of an abnormal hole in the first. So it wouldn't be a typical year, they'll probably be a little more back weighted.

是的。第二——我們在過去兩年已經證明，我們不擅長預測下半年。但由於上半年有這種不正常的情況，我預期平均而言你會看到下半年權重稍微更高一些，因為我們在上半年有一個有點不正常的缺口。所以這不會是典型的一年，可能會更偏向下半年。

Okay. So not even level set but maybe even a stronger bias to second half.

好的。所以不只是回到正常水準，甚至可能更明顯偏向下半年。

Yes.

是的。

Okay. Interesting. And I guess on the Industrial Automation side, based on your commentary, there's constraints and I'd imagine you expect year-over-year growth to slow near term but accelerate moving across the year. Can you give us a sense of the magnitude of revenue impact this is creating in first half? And do you view that demand as perishable or shifting to second half?

好的。有意思。那我想在工業自動化（Industrial Automation）這邊，根據你的評論，存在一些限制，我猜想你預期短期年對年成長會放緩，但隨著年度推進會加速。你能否讓我們了解一下，這在上半年造成的營收影響幅度大概是多少？以及你認為這些需求是會消失（perishable），還是會遞延到下半年？

Brian, are you asking a question about supply?

Brian，你是在問供應方面的問題嗎？

Well, it's supply -- the overlay of supply constraints against the demand profile you see in Industrial Automation. It sounds like there was a talk of some constraints or even severe constraints in first half in that business. And so I'm kind of wondering what that revenue impact then is and also if it just shifts to the second half or if it's perishable.

嗯，是供應——也就是供應限制疊加在你們看到的工業自動化需求輪廓之上。聽起來你提到這個業務在上半年有一些限制，甚至是嚴重限制。所以我想知道這對營收的影響是多少，以及它是否只是轉移到下半年，還是會消失。

Yes. So demand is quite strong. And in Q1, out of the $30 million to $40 million I noted, about $10 million of it is tied to IA. And really, just given the allocation for Q2, our commentary in my prepared remarks, it had a little bit of the impact there. So it's true we are seeing some supply impact in the first half. But I would say that from a first half, second half, we do expect demand in and revenue in the second half for IA to be larger than the first half.

是的。所以需求相當強勁。在第一季，我提到的 3,000 萬到 4,000 萬美元之中，大約有 1,000 萬美元與 IA 有關。而且就第二季的配給情況來看，我在事先準備的講稿中也提到，那裡也有一些影響。所以確實，我們在上半年看到一些供應面的影響。但我會說，從上半年、下半年的角度來看，我們確實預期 IA 的下半年需求與營收會大於上半年。

All right, folks. We are out of time. For those in the queue, I'll follow up with you off-line, and thanks for joining us, and we look forward to talking to you in the weeks ahead. Bye-bye.

各位，我們時間到了。對於還在排隊的各位，我會在會後私下跟進。感謝大家加入，我們也期待在接下來幾週再與各位交流。再見。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與。您現在可以掛線。祝大家今天愉快。