泰瑞達 (TER) 2021 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Teradyne Third Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call.

女士們，先生們，感謝您的支持，歡迎參加泰瑞達 2021 年第三季度收益電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Andrew Blanchard.

（操作員說明）我現在想把會議交給你今天的演講者，Andrew Blanchard。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Please go ahead, sir.

請繼續，先生。

Thank you, Patrice.

謝謝你，帕特里斯。

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our discussion of Teradyne's most recent financial results.

大家早上好，歡迎來到我們關於泰瑞達最新財務業績的討論。

I'm joined this morning by our CEO, Mark Jagiela; and our CFO, Sanjay Mehta.

今天早上，我們的首席執行官 Mark Jagiela 加入了我的行列；和我們的首席財務官 Sanjay Mehta。

Following our opening remarks, we'll provide details of our performance for 2021's third quarter along with our outlook for the fourth quarter.

在我們的開場白之後，我們將提供 2021 年第三季度業績的詳細信息以及我們對第四季度的展望。

The press release containing our third quarter results was issued last evening.

包含我們第三季度業績的新聞稿於昨晚發布。

We're providing slides on the Investor page of the website that may be helpful to you in following the discussion.

我們在網站的投資者頁面上提供了幻燈片，可能對您進行討論有所幫助。

Replays of this call will be available via the same page after the call ends.

通話結束後，將通過同一頁面重播此通話。

The matters that we discuss today will include forward-looking statements that involve risk factors that could cause Teradyne's results to differ materially from management's current expectations.

我們今天討論的事項將包括涉及風險因素的前瞻性陳述，這些風險因素可能導致泰瑞達的業績與管理層當前的預期存在重大差異。

We encourage you to review the safe harbor statement contained in the earnings release as well as our most recent SEC filings.

我們鼓勵您查看收益發布中包含的安全港聲明以及我們最近提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件。

Additionally, those forward-looking statements are made as of today and we take no obligation to update them as a result of developments occurring after this call.

此外，這些前瞻性陳述是在今天做出的，我們沒有義務因為這次電話會議後發生的事態發展而對其進行更新。

During today's call, we'll make reference to non-GAAP financial measures.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將參考非 GAAP 財務指標。

We've posted additional information concerning these non-GAAP financial measures where appropriate on the Investor page of the website.

我們已在網站的“投資者”頁面上酌情發布了有關這些非公認會計原則財務措施的更多信息。

Looking ahead between now and our next earnings call, Teradyne expects to participate in technology or industrial-focused investor conferences hosted by Baird, Credit Suisse, Davidson and UBS.

展望從現在到我們的下一次財報電話會議，泰瑞達預計將參加由 Baird、瑞士信貸、戴維森和瑞銀主辦的以技術或工業為重點的投資者會議。

Now let's get on with the rest of the agenda.

現在讓我們繼續議程的其餘部分。

First, Mark will comment on our recent results, current market conditions and thoughts on the rest of 2021 and '22.

首先，馬克將評論我們最近的結果、當前的市場狀況以及對 2021 年剩餘時間和 22 年的想法。

Sanjay will then offer more details on our quarterly results along with our guidance for the fourth quarter.

然後，桑傑將提供有關我們季度業績的更多細節以及我們對第四季度的指導。

We'll then answer your questions, and this call is scheduled for 1 hour.

然後我們將回答您的問題，本次電話會議時間為 1 小時。

Mark?

標記？

Thanks, Andy.

謝謝，安迪。

Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us.

大家早上好，感謝您加入我們。

Today, I'll cover 4 topics: the highlights of our third quarter and the first 9 months of the year, the changes we're observing in the SOC test market, our outlook for the industrial automation market and how we're thinking about the test and automation markets as we close out this year and look into 2022 and beyond.

今天，我將討論 4 個主題：我們第三季度和今年前 9 個月的亮點、我們在 SOC 測試市場中觀察到的變化、我們對工業自動化市場的展望以及我們的思考方式隨著我們今年結束並展望 2022 年及以後的測試和自動化市場。

As our Q3 results demonstrate, demand remains strong across all of our businesses.

正如我們第三季度的結果所顯示的那樣，我們所有業務的需求仍然強勁。

At the company level, Q3 sales grew 16% from last year's record Q3 and non-GAAP EPS grew 35%.

在公司層面，第三季度銷售額比去年創紀錄的第三季度增長了 16%，非公認會計準則每股收益增長了 35%。

We did experience increased supply chain bottlenecks in our Industrial Automation business in the quarter and under ship demand.

我們在本季度的工業自動化業務中確實遇到了供應鏈瓶頸的增加以及船舶需求不足。

Sanjay will describe this in more detail, but we expect these constraints to persist into Q4.

桑傑將更詳細地描述這一點，但我們預計這些限制將持續到第四季度。

Despite this, for the first 9 months of 2021, company-wide sales grew 19% and non-GAAP EPS grew 31% from the year ago level.

儘管如此，在 2021 年前 9 個月，公司範圍內的銷售額增長了 19%，非公認會計準則每股收益比去年同期增長了 31%。

In each of our businesses, we are riding long-term secular trends that we expect will drive revenue and earnings growth for years to come.

在我們的每項業務中，我們都在把握長期的長期趨勢，我們預計這些趨勢將推動未來幾年的收入和盈利增長。

In our Test businesses, the unit growth and complexity drivers that power these markets continue unabated.

在我們的測試業務中，驅動這些市場的單位增長和復雜性驅動因素繼續有增無減。

For example, our semiconductor test business grew 18% through Q3, while -- with SOC leading the charge growing 22%.

例如，我們的半導體測試業務在第三季度增長了 18%，而 SOC 領先充電增長了 22%。

Sales continue to be dominated by our UltraFLEX product line which is well aligned to the performance requirements of the growing compute and mobility markets.

我們的 UltraFLEX 產品線繼續主導銷售，該產品線很好地滿足了不斷增長的計算和移動市場的性能要求。

Additionally, sales of our Eagle Test Systems more than doubled in the 9-month period as Automotive and Industrial Test markets have also rapidly expanded.

此外，隨著汽車和工業測試市場的快速擴張，我們 Eagle 測試系統的銷售額在 9 個月內翻了一番多。

Eagle's unique architecture hits the sweet spot in these markets by balancing high precision with the stress testing needed for these demanding applications.

Eagle 獨特的架構通過平衡高精度和這些要求苛刻的應用所需的壓力測試，在這些市場中達到最佳狀態。

Within SOC, there's been a clear shift this year to higher demand from the compute, automotive and industrial markets.

在 SOC 內部，今年明顯轉向計算、汽車和工業市場的更高需求。

While mobility is still the largest subsegment of SOC and growing, it has dropped from the high 50% range of the SOC test market in recent years to the high 40% range this year.

雖然移動性仍然是 SOC 的最大子細分市場，並且還在不斷增長，但它已經從近年來 SOC 測試市場的 50% 的高位下降到今年的 40% 的高位。

Over the midterm, we expect mobility will remain the largest SOC submarket and continue to grow but we also expect compute to grow at a faster rate, while automotive should remain at its current elevated levels.

在中期，我們預計移動性仍將是最大的 SOC 子市場並繼續增長，但我們也預計計算將以更快的速度增長，而汽車應保持目前的高水平。

For the last decade or so, mobility has made rapid annual advances in semiconductor complexity that has enabled the advancement of smartphone sophistication.

在過去十年左右的時間裡，移動性在半導體複雜性方面取得了快速的年度進步，從而推動了智能手機的複雜性。

The refresh pace has been much faster than traditional PCs, graphics, automotive and industrial end markets, leading to smartphone ICs rapidly progressing along the complexity scale.

更新速度比傳統的 PC、圖形、汽車和工業終端市場快得多，導致智能手機 IC 在復雜性規模上迅速發展。

This is true in many areas of smartphone silicon, apps processor compute engines, graphics engines, AI engines, image sensors, power management and more.

在智能手機芯片、應用處理器計算引擎、圖形引擎、人工智能引擎、圖像傳感器、電源管理等許多領域都是如此。

Our leading position in testing these key technologies has driven our growth.

我們在測試這些關鍵技術方面的領先地位推動了我們的發展。

At the same time, up until recently, the traditional compute testing market has been relatively flat with slower refresh rates and slower complexity growth.

與此同時，直到最近，傳統計算測試市場一直相對平穩，刷新率較慢，複雜性增長較慢。

However, the groundwork laid by mobility designs combined with advancing lithography nodes and design tools has enabled new entrants into the chip design space for compute engines.

然而，移動設計與先進的光刻節點和設計工具相結合所奠定的基礎，使新進入者能夠進入計算引擎的芯片設計領域。

The complexity of these chips whether for laptops, servers, autonomous driving, AI or graphics is incredible and advancing at an accelerated rate.

無論是用於筆記本電腦、服務器、自動駕駛、人工智能還是圖形芯片，這些芯片的複雜性令人難以置信，並且正在加速發展。

For example, laptop CPUs are now crossing the 30 billion transistor level, which is a huge leap over previous legacy designs.

例如，筆記本電腦 CPU 現在正在跨越 300 億個晶體管級別，這與之前的傳統設計相比是一個巨大的飛躍。

As we've said in the past, increased transistor counts drives increased test time and increased tester demand.

正如我們過去所說，增加的晶體管數量會增加測試時間並增加測試儀的需求。

We've seen that this year and there's more to come.

今年我們已經看到了這一點，而且還會有更多。

We're targeting this expanding collection of new players and new designs, leaning heavily into our UltraFLEX family's hardware performance and time-to-market advantages of our software.

我們的目標是不斷擴大的新玩家和新設計集合，並在很大程度上利用我們 UltraFLEX 系列的硬件性能和我們的軟件的上市時間優勢。

We've been adding new design wins every quarter.

我們每個季度都在增加新的設計勝利。

And while development pipelines can be long and these new designs can be speculative, we're confident we'll see growing production business from these wins in the future.

雖然開發管道可能很長，而且這些新設計可能是投機性的，但我們有信心在未來看到這些勝利帶來的生產業務不斷增長。

It's also notable that the traditional chip suppliers in these markets aren't standing still, they are doubling down on their advanced designs too, which is collectively driving WFE investments higher as applications expand and competition heats up.

同樣值得注意的是，這些市場的傳統芯片供應商並沒有停滯不前，他們也在加倍投入他們的先進設計，隨著應用程序的擴大和競爭的加劇，這共同推動了 WFE 的投資。

We expect this race to lead to higher test TAMs and given the higher performance and faster design to market cycle times, more share gain opportunities for Teradyne over the midterm.

我們預計這場競賽將導致更高的 TAM 測試，並且鑑於更高的性能和更快的設計上市週期，泰瑞達在中期獲得更多份額的機會。

Our System Test segment last year -- sorry, our System Test segment year-to-date sales grew 11% from 2020 and Storage Test continued its multiyear growth trajectory, expanding sales 12% in the same period.

去年我們的系統測試部門——抱歉，我們的系統測試部門年初至今的銷售額比 2020 年增長了 11%，存儲測試繼續其多年增長軌跡，同期銷售額增長了 12%。

Higher capacity HDDs and more complex SOC devices, which require system-level test, are driving this demand.

需要係統級測試的更高容量 HDD 和更複雜的 SOC 設備正在推動這一需求。

Both trends are expected to continue into the foreseeable future.

預計這兩種趨勢都將持續到可預見的未來。

At LitePoint, sales were up 24% through 9 months compared with 2020, driven by WiFi 6E production, WiFi 7 R&D demand as well as ultra-wideband.

在 LitePoint，在 WiFi 6E 生產、WiFi 7 研發需求以及超寬帶的推動下，與 2020 年相比，過去 9 個月的銷售額增長了 24%。

More connected devices demanding more bandwidth while managing growing congestion drive complexity increases in each new WiFi standard and more tests.

越來越多的連接設備需要更多帶寬，同時管理日益增長的擁塞會導致每個新 WiFi 標準和更多測試的複雜性增加。

UWB, on the other hand, is a whole new wireless standard in application space.

另一方面，UWB 是應用領域的全新無線標準。

It's a new proximity detection wireless technology with the future of many promising security applications.

它是一種新的接近檢測無線技術，具有許多有前途的安全應用的未來。

We expect these trends to continue and to provide a long-term tailwind to our Wireless Test business.

我們預計這些趨勢將繼續下去，並為我們的無線測試業務提供長期的順風。

Shifting to Industrial Automation.

轉向工業自動化。

Universal Robots revenue grew 50% through the first 9 months of the year, while MiR grew 40% despite supply chain challenges.

今年前 9 個月，Universal Robots 的收入增長了 50%，而 MiR 儘管面臨供應鏈挑戰，但仍增長了 40%。

Each has a unique story.

每個人都有一個獨特的故事。

At UR, it's a combination of increasing sales for existing tasks and the expanding number of UR+ offerings, making it easier for customers to deploy our cobots to do new applications.

在 UR，它結合了現有任務的銷售額增加和 UR+ 產品數量的增加，使客戶更容易部署我們的協作機器人來執行新的應用程序。

We highlighted welding in our last call, but other examples include screw-driving and palletizing.

我們在上次電話會議中強調了焊接，但其他示例包括螺絲驅動和碼垛。

The UR+ ecosystem is key to expanding these tasks and now totals over 360 products created by over 300 partners, both riding on and broadening the coattails of our UR platform.

UR+ 生態系統是擴展這些任務的關鍵，現在共有 300 多個合作夥伴創建了 360 多種產品，這些產品都利用並擴大了我們 UR 平台的範圍。

This is a key advantage in the combination of our organic investments and our UR+ and OEM partners R&D dollars and creativity that's going into expanding the UR platform and it's unmatched.

這是我們有機投資與我們的 UR+ 和 OEM 合作夥伴研發資金和創造力相結合的一個關鍵優勢，這些資金將用於擴展 UR 平台，這是無與倫比的。

At MiR, the story is about new products.

在 MiR，故事是關於新產品的。

The MiR250 which was introduced just as COVID hit last March of last year, is now our largest seller by far.

MiR250 是在去年 3 月 COVID 襲擊時推出的，現在是我們迄今為止最暢銷的產品。

This year, we added the MiR Hook to the 250 family to expand its applications into tugging.

今年，我們將 MiR Hook 添加到 250 系列中，以將其應用擴展到牽引。

We've introduced higher payload products such as the MiR 600 and 1350 to expand our footprint in the fast-growing logistics market.

我們推出了更高負載的產品，例如 MiR 600 和 1350，以擴大我們在快速增長的物流市場中的足跡。

Unfortunately, with all this good news come supply chain issues that will limit IA growth in 2021 to be between 30% to 40% year-on-year, but demand is strong.

不幸的是，伴隨著所有這些好消息而來的是供應鏈問題，這將限制 2021 年 IA 同比增長在 30% 至 40% 之間，但需求強勁。

The long-term outlook in IA remains very bright.

IA 的長期前景仍然非常光明。

Looking at the capabilities of UR cobots today, we estimate the penetration rate is less than 2% of the servable market.

看看今天 UR 協作機器人的能力，我們估計滲透率不到可服務市場的 2%。

UR's approximate 45% market share puts us clearly in the lead, and we continue to drive R&D and distribution investments to extend our competitive advantages, expand the servable market and drive penetration higher.

UR 大約 45% 的市場份額使我們明顯處於領先地位，我們將繼續推動研發和分銷投資，以擴大我們的競爭優勢、擴大可服務市場並提高滲透率。

It's a similar story at MiR, where we estimate the autonomous mobile robot penetration is under 3%.

MiR 也有類似的情況，我們估計自主移動機器人的普及率低於 3%。

The AMR market doesn't have a single dominant player like UR cobots, and we estimate we're close to #2 in the broadly defined market.

AMR 市場沒有像 UR 協作機器人這樣的單一主導者，我們估計我們在廣泛定義的市場中接近第二。

And like at UR, we're making investments in both the distribution and product level to both reinforce our advantages and extend our product reach.

和 UR 一樣，我們正在對分銷和產品層面進行投資，以加強我們的優勢並擴大我們的產品範圍。

In both IA businesses, the fact that our penetration of today's servable market is low single digits and that the servable market continues to expand each year with product enhancements, sets up a fantastic future.

在這兩項 IA 業務中，我們對當今可服務市場的滲透率只有個位數，而且可服務市場隨著產品的改進每年都在不斷擴大，這為我們創造了美好的未來。

So even with very high growth rates in our IA business, we expect the penetration rates to remain low for many years, sustaining our long-term annual growth forecast of 20% to 35%.

因此，即使我們的 IA 業務增長率非常高，我們預計滲透率將在多年內保持在較低水平，從而維持我們 20% 至 35% 的長期年增長率預測。

In January, we will update you on the outlook for 2022 and our midterm earnings model.

一月份，我們將向您介紹 2022 年的展望和我們的中期收益模型。

Between now and then, we'll be looking at the rate and timing of new semiconductor fab capacity coming online, especially at the more advanced lithography nodes.

從現在到那時，我們將關注新半導體工廠產能上線的速度和時間，尤其是在更先進的光刻節點上。

And we'll also be looking at the rate of adoption of DDR5 as key swing factors.

我們還將把 DDR5 的採用率視為關鍵的搖擺因素。

In IA, we will be looking at the manufacturing output expansion, onshoring trends and PMIs in our principal geographies as tailwinds for continued robust growth.

在 IA，我們將關注我們主要地區的製造業產出擴張、外包趨勢和採購經理人指數，作為持續強勁增長的順風。

On the other hand, in both markets, supply chain bottlenecks could slow certain industries and become a headwind to growth demand.

另一方面，在這兩個市場中，供應鏈瓶頸可能會減緩某些行業並成為需求增長的逆風。

Short-term demand is influenced by many factors, but we manage our business aligned to the long-term trends.

短期需求受許多因素影響，但我們根據長期趨勢管理業務。

The trend of growing prevalence of increasingly complex semiconductors and a myriad of applications drives our semiconductor business and investments.

日益複雜的半導體和無數應用日益普及的趨勢推動了我們的半導體業務和投資。

The trend of new increasingly smart, cost-effective automation in a world with labor scarcity and onshoring challenges drives our IA business and investment strategy.

在勞動力稀缺和外包挑戰的世界中，新的日益智能、具有成本效益的自動化趨勢推動了我們的 IA 業務和投資戰略。

These systemic long-term trends paint an exciting future for Teradyne.

這些系統性的長期趨勢為泰瑞達描繪了一個令人興奮的未來。

With that, I'll turn it over to Sanjay.

有了這個，我會把它交給桑傑。

Thanks, Mark, and hello, everyone.

謝謝，馬克，大家好。

In my remarks, I'll review our Q3 financial results, discuss our supply line strategy in this challenging environment, provide Q4 guidance and comment on our full year financial outlook at the midpoint of our Q4 guidance.

在我的講話中，我將回顧我們的第三季度財務業績，討論我們在這個充滿挑戰的環境中的供應線戰略，提供第四季度指導，並在第四季度指導的中點對我們的全年財務前景發表評論。

To the financial headlines for Q3.

第三季度的財務頭條。

Our third quarter sales were $951 million was near the high end of guidance driven by strength in Semi Test and Wireless Test.

我們第三季度的銷售額為 9.51 億美元，接近於半測試和無線測試實力驅動的指導高端。

Gross margin in the quarter was approximately 60%.

本季度毛利率約為 60%。

Our non-GAAP operating expenses were $242 million or 25.5% of revenue.

我們的非公認會計準則運營費用為 2.42 億美元，佔收入的 25.5%。

The favorability in OpEx drove a non-GAAP operating margin of approximately 35% and non-GAAP EPS of $1.59.

運營支出的好壞推動了非 GAAP 營業利潤率約為 35%，非 GAAP 每股收益為 1.59 美元。

A few more components of third quarter data.

第三季度數據的更多組成部分。

Our tax rate, excluding discrete items, was 14.8% on both a GAAP and non-GAAP basis.

我們的稅率（不包括離散項目）在 GAAP 和非 GAAP 基礎上均為 14.8%。

Non-GAAP diluted share count was approximately 176 million.

非 GAAP 稀釋後的股票數量約為 1.76 億股。

We had two 10% customers.

我們有兩個 10% 的客戶。

Looking at the results from a business unit perspective.

從業務部門的角度來看結果。

Semi Test revenue of $688 million was up 16% from Q3 '20.

Semi Test 的收入為 6.88 億美元，比 20 年第三季度增長了 16%。

SOC revenue was $575 million, up 28%, driven by strength in applications processors, RF, industrial and automotive applications.

SOC 收入為 5.75 億美元，增長 28%，這得益於應用處理器、射頻、工業和汽車應用的強勁增長。

Automotive and industrials doubled revenue year-over-year.

汽車和工業部門的收入同比翻了一番。

Memory revenue was the second highest in history at $113 million, but down 21% from Q3 of last year's record.

內存收入為歷史第二高，為 1.13 億美元，但比去年第三季度的記錄下降了 21%。

FLASH final test demand was the strongest segment on handset and SSD end market demand.

FLASH最終測試需求是手機和SSD終端市場需求中最強勁的部分。

System Test group had revenue of $103 million, which was down 13% year-over-year.

System Test 集團的收入為 1.03 億美元，同比下降 13%。

Recall Storage is the largest business in this segment and has lumpy shipments.

召回存儲是該領域最大的業務，並且出貨量很大。

While Storage Test will still grow more than 15% for the year, sales, including HDD and SLT declined to $56 million on the timing of shipments in Q3.

雖然 Storage Test 今年仍將增長 15% 以上，但隨著第三季度的出貨時間，包括 HDD 和 SLT 在內的銷售額下降至 5600 萬美元。

Defense and aerospace and production board test combined grew 10% year-on-year to $47 million.

國防和航空航天以及生產板測試合計同比增長 10%，達到 4700 萬美元。

At LitePoint, revenue of $69 million was up 70% from prior year due to early success of our new WiFi 7 product, continued strength in 4G cellular and UWB.

LitePoint 的收入為 6900 萬美元，比上年增長 70%，這得益於我們新 WiFi 7 產品的早期成功，以及 4G 蜂窩和 UWB 的持續優勢。

Now to Industrial Automation.

現在到工業自動化。

As in July, given COVID shutdowns had impaired the UR business in 2020, I'll provide revenue metrics comparing Q3 '21 results with both Q3 '20 and Q3 '19.

與 7 月一樣，鑑於 COVID 關閉在 2020 年損害了 UR 業務，我將提供收入指標，將 21 年第三季度的結果與 20 年第三季度和 19 年第三季度的結果進行比較。

Industrial Automation revenue of $91 million was up 32% from both Q3 '19 and Q3 '20.

與 19 年第三季度和 20 年第三季度相比，工業自動化收入為 9100 萬美元，增長了 32%。

North America delivered the highest revenue growth from last year, but all regions expanded year-on-year.

與去年相比，北美實現了最高的收入增長，但所有地區都同比增長。

As Mark noted, supply issues, primarily semiconductors, reduced our IA shipments in the quarter.

正如 Mark 所指出的，供應問題（主要是半導體）減少了我們在本季度的 IA 出貨量。

UR sales were $78 million in Q3, up 46% year-over-year and 31% over Q3 '19.

UR 在第三季度的銷售額為 7800 萬美元，同比增長 46%，比 19 年第三季度增長 31%。

MiR sales were $13 million, up 27% from Q3 '20 and 35% from Q3 '19.

MiR 銷售額為 1300 萬美元，比 20 年第三季度增長 27%，比 19 年第三季度增長 35%。

IA was about breakeven in the quarter and full -- breakeven in the quarter and full year, we expect low single-digit profitability.

IA 在本季度和全年實現盈虧平衡——本季度和全年盈虧平衡，我們預計低個位數的盈利能力。

As we've noted before, we continue our strategy of investing during this high-growth era while maintaining gross margins to enable mid-20s operating profit in the future.

正如我們之前所指出的，我們在這個高增長時代繼續我們的投資戰略，同時保持毛利率，以實現未來 20 年代中期的營業利潤。

Shifting to supply.

轉向供應。

We continue to deal with numerous supply constraints across the company.

我們將繼續處理整個公司的眾多供應限制。

While semiconductor shortages are well reported, we're also seeing delays in mechanical parts and logistics, all exacerbated by rolling COVID-related shutdowns or labor shortages.

雖然半導體短缺的報導很多，但我們也看到機械零件和物流方面的延誤，所有這些都因與 COVID 相關的滾動停工或勞動力短缺而加劇。

We expect these issues will continue through the first half of 2022.

我們預計這些問題將持續到 2022 年上半年。

Despite these issues, we've been able to deliver record shipments and a big part of that performance is a result of the supply line management, operations teams and engineering teams working with our supply chain and contract manufacturing partners.

儘管存在這些問題，我們仍然能夠交付創紀錄的出貨量，而這一業績的很大一部分是供應線管理、運營團隊和工程團隊與我們的供應鍊和合同製造合作夥伴合作的結果。

We view our operational business model and execution against it as a core competence.

我們將我們的運營業務模式和執行視為一項核心競爭力。

Our gross margin performance over the last 10 years displays the financial value of this model.

我們過去 10 年的毛利率表現顯示了這種模式的財務價值。

In our test portfolio, our execution has kept most of our tester lead times within the range that meet customers' needs to expand their production capacity in this dynamic environment.

在我們的測試產品組合中，我們的執行使我們的大部分測試儀交付週期保持在滿足客戶在這種動態環境中擴大生產能力的需求的範圍內。

The significance of this lead time performance is that customer orders more closely reflect true test demand.

這種提前期表現的意義在於，客戶訂單更能反映真實的測試需求。

So while a bit counterintuitive, we feel that maintaining short lead times are a more accurate indicator of test demand with lower risk than holding orders with lead times far beyond chip manufacturing cycle times.

因此，雖然有點違反直覺，但我們認為保持較短的交貨時間是測試需求的更準確指標，並且比持有交貨時間遠遠超過芯片製造週期時間的訂單風險更低。

Of course, our supply line and operations model isn't static.

當然，我們的供應線和運營模式不是一成不變的。

We began adding resiliency through both geographic and supplier diversity prior to COVID.

在 COVID 之前，我們開始通過地理和供應商的多樣性來增加彈性。

Those efforts have accelerated over the last 20 months.

在過去的 20 個月裡，這些努力加速了。

This work is paying dividends in the current environment, and we'll continue to invest to harden our supply chain further.

這項工作在當前環境中帶來了紅利，我們將繼續投資以進一步加強我們的供應鏈。

Our lead time performance is an example of our resilience and execution.

我們的交貨時間表現是我們彈性和執行力的一個例子。

Another example is the ability to scale to significantly increase demand.

另一個例子是擴展以顯著增加需求的能力。

Auto and industrial sales have more than doubled year-over-year.

汽車和工業銷售額同比增長一倍多。

While we're not perfectly aligned to all customer requested delivery dates, we are managing through delivery issues in a reasonable manner.

雖然我們並不完全符合所有客戶要求的交貨日期，但我們正在以合理的方式管理交貨問題。

The value of these efforts can also be seen in the operating leverage in our gross margin line.

這些努力的價值也可以從我們的毛利率線的經營槓桿中看出。

In IA, we've seen lead times extend from our normal 1 to 2 weeks to 4 to 6 weeks for some products.

在 IA，我們看到某些產品的交貨時間從我們正常的 1 到 2 周延長到 4 到 6 週。

While this is a challenge with the business growing so quickly and ongoing industry supply issues, we've already seen the positive impact of our work in material sourcing and manufacturing cycle times.

儘管隨著業務的快速增長和持續的行業供應問題，這是一個挑戰，但我們已經看到了我們在材料採購和製造週期時間方面的工作所產生的積極影響。

We expect to bring lead times back to model over the next 2 to 3 quarters.

我們預計在接下來的 2 到 3 個季度內將提前期恢復到模型中。

Shifting to the balance sheet and cash flow.

轉向資產負債表和現金流。

Our cash and marketable securities at the end of the quarter totaled $1.45 billion.

本季度末，我們的現金和有價證券總額為 14.5 億美元。

We had $493 million in free cash flow in the quarter, and through 9 months, we've spent $103 million on CapEx, and we expect we'll spend $148 million for the full year.

本季度我們的自由現金流為 4.93 億美元，在過去的 9 個月中，我們在資本支出上花費了 1.03 億美元，我們預計全年將花費 1.48 億美元。

We spent $210 million and $16 million on buybacks and dividends, respectively.

我們分別在回購和分紅上花費了 2.1 億美元和 1600 萬美元。

Year-to-date, we've repurchased 3.3 million shares for $406 million at an average price of $123.53.

年初至今，我們以 123.53 美元的平均價格以 4.06 億美元的價格回購了 330 萬股股票。

In 2021, we expect to return over 80% of our free cash flow to shareholders.

到 2021 年，我們預計將 80% 以上的自由現金流返還給股東。

And from 2015, when we began repurchasing shares, we've returned 85% of our free cash flow to owners.

從 2015 年開始，當我們開始回購股票時，我們已經將 85% 的自由現金流返還給了所有者。

Regarding our convertible debt, $302 million of principal was paid in the first 9 months to the convertible bondholders ahead of maturity.

關於我們的可轉換債券，在前 9 個月向可轉換債券持有人支付了 3.02 億美元的本金。

By mid-December, bondholders will have converted approximately $343 million, leaving a face value of $117 million.

到 12 月中旬，債券持有人將轉換約 3.43 億美元，留下面值 1.17 億美元。

Now to our outlook for Q4.

現在來看我們對第四季度的展望。

Sales in Q4 are expected to be between $820 million and $900 million, with non-GAAP EPS in a range of $1.14 to $1.40 on 174 million diluted shares.

第四季度的銷售額預計在 8.2 億美元至 9 億美元之間，1.74 億股稀釋後的非公認會計準則每股收益在 1.14 美元至 1.40 美元之間。

Fourth quarter guidance excludes the amortization of acquired intangibles and noncash imputed interest on the convertible debt.

第四季度指引不包括所購無形資產的攤銷和可轉換債務的非現金推算利息。

Our guidance assumes no significant changes, positive or negative, in the availability of materials and assumes that we won't see additional pandemic-related issues.

我們的指導假設材料的可用性沒有重大變化，無論是積極的還是消極的，並假設我們不會看到其他與大流行相關的問題。

Fourth quarter gross margins are estimated at 59% to 60%.

第四季度毛利率估計為 59% 至 60%。

OpEx is expected to run at 28% to 31% of fourth quarter sales.

OpEx 預計將佔第四季度銷售額的 28% 至 31%。

The non-GAAP operating profit at the midpoint of our third quarter guidance is 30%.

我們第三季度指引中點的非公認會計原則營業利潤為 30%。

Regarding OpEx for the full year.

關於全年的運營支出。

We spent a bit lower than planned in Q3, and we expect the full year OpEx will be about $980 million, up 17% from 2020.

我們在第三季度的支出略低於計劃，我們預計全年運營支出約為 9.8 億美元，比 2020 年增長 17%。

At the midpoint of our guidance, 2021 will be another year of growth in both revenue and EPS, while sales growing -- or sorry, with sales growing 18% to $3.7 billion and non-GAAP EPS growing to $5.88, up 27%.

在我們指導的中點，2021 年將是收入和每股收益增長的又一年，而銷售額增長——或者對不起，銷售額增長 18% 至 37 億美元，非公認會計準則每股收益增長至 5.88 美元，增長 27%。

Gross margin for the full year should be approximately 59.5%, up from 57.2% in 2020, reflecting the ramp of new products, product mix and operating leverage, offsetting component and logistics cost increases.

全年毛利率應約為 59.5%，高於 2020 年的 57.2%，這反映了新產品、產品組合和經營槓桿的增加，抵消了零部件和物流成本的增加。

Our 2021 non-GAAP operating profit rate is expected to be about 33%, up from last year's 30%.

我們的 2021 年非公認會計原則營業利潤率預計約為 33%，高於去年的 30%。

Our full year tax rate is expected to be 14.8%.

我們的全年稅率預計為 14.8%。

These results put us comfortably in the range of our 2024 earnings model this year.

這些結果使我們在今年的 2024 年收益模型範圍內輕鬆自如。

We'll update the model on our regular cadence in January.

我們將在一月份按照我們的常規節奏更新模型。

The breadth of our customer buying in 2021 is also broader than last year.

我們客戶在 2021 年的購買範圍也比去年更廣。

In 2020, we had 1 customer that drove 25% of sales.

2020 年，我們有 1 個客戶推動了 25% 的銷售額。

In 2021, we do not expect to have any customer larger than 20% of our yearly revenue.

到 2021 年，我們預計任何客戶都不會超過我們年收入的 20%。

This reflects the trend Mark noted about 2021's higher growth in compute, auto and industrial demand compared with mobility demand in Semi Test.

這反映了 Mark 指出的趨勢，即與 Semi Test 中的移動需求相比，2021 年計算、汽車和工業需求的增長更高。

IA growth of over 30% year-over-year continues to diversify our revenue.

IA 同比增長超過 30% 繼續使我們的收入多樣化。

This growth is expected to continue over the midterm and become a larger portion of our revenue.

預計這種增長將在中期繼續，並成為我們收入的較大部分。

In summary, we expect to end the year with another quarter of strong year-on-year revenue and EPS growth.

總而言之，我們預計今年年底收入和每股收益將實現另一個季度的強勁增長。

On a full year basis, we'll exceed our midterm targets on stronger-than-expected demand on our test businesses, continued high growth in IA and excellent execution across the company.

在全年的基礎上，我們將超過我們的中期目標，因為我們的測試業務的需求強於預期、IA 的持續高速增長以及整個公司的出色執行。

While we don't have a clear picture of 2022 yet, we're confident that the long-term industry trends powering our test and IA businesses remain firmly in place.

雖然我們還沒有清晰的 2022 年圖景，但我們相信，驅動我們的測試和 IA 業務的長期行業趨勢仍然穩固。

With that, I'll turn the call back to Andy.

有了這個，我會把電話轉回給安迪。

Thanks, Sanjay.

謝謝，桑傑。

Patrice, we would now like to take some questions.

帕特里斯，我們現在想回答一些問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Atif Malik with Citi.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自花旗的 Atif Malik。

Good job in the tough supply environment.

在嚴峻的供應環境中表現出色。

And Mark, if I look at some of the recent ARM-based notebook processors, the transistor count is growing 2 to 4x versus prior generation.

馬克，如果我看看最近一些基於 ARM 的筆記本處理器，晶體管數量與上一代相比增長了 2 到 4 倍。

You commented mobility to grow and compute, auto, analog to grow faster than mobility in the midterm, understand you guys generally talk about next year outlook in January.

你評論移動性增長和計算，汽車，模擬在中期增長速度快於移動性，了解你們通常在 1 月份談論明年的前景。

How confident do you feel about your SOC growth next year?

您對明年的 SOC 增長有多大信心？

Well, I think at this point, pretty confident.

好吧，我認為在這一點上，非常有信心。

I mean we look at the trends that I just -- you cited and I cited and see that there's very little standing in the way of sort of this increased growth, but the caveat I would mention is there's a lot of supply chain bottlenecks in the system.

我的意思是，我們看看我剛才提到的趨勢——你引用了，我引用了，發現幾乎沒有什麼阻礙這種增長的方式，但我要提到的是，有很多供應鏈瓶頸在系統。

So if end products get bottlenecked, that can slow down the unit volume demand for new semiconductors.

因此，如果最終產品出現瓶頸，可能會減緩對新半導體的單位體積需求。

And the other thing we're looking at is when do these new nodes really come online in terms of capacity.

我們正在關注的另一件事是，這些新節點何時真正在容量方面上線。

All that $90 billion of WFE that was put in place this year hasn't yet had a single impact on test.

今年投入的所有 900 億美元的 WFE 尚未對測試產生任何影響。

That's all to come.

這就是一切。

But it kind of depends on when do those additional 5- and 3-nanometer fabs come online.

但這有點取決於這些額外的 5 納米和 3 納米晶圓廠何時上線。

That is kind of a big swing factor in the calendar year 2022 as to how our growth will chunk up.

這是 2022 日曆年的一個重要因素，決定了我們的增長將如何加速。

And that's kind of why we wait until January because we don't get a good enough visibility on that right now.

這就是為什麼我們要等到一月份，因為我們現在還沒有足夠好的知名度。

Great.

偉大的。

And Sanjay, as a follow-up, can you talk about concentration within mobility and compute customer and impact on long-term gross margins?

Sanjay，作為後續，您能否談談對移動和計算客戶的集中度以及對長期毛利率的影響？

There have been talks about price discounts with equipment suppliers by Tier 1 foundry.

一級代工廠商與設備供應商就價格折扣進行了談判。

Yes.

是的。

As I stated in my prepared remarks, we won't have any customer above 20%.

正如我在準備好的評論中所說，我們不會有任何超過 20% 的客戶。

So it's a broader breadth of customers.

因此，它的客戶範圍更廣。

And regarding gross margins, in throughout the year, we've improved gross margins.

關於毛利率，在全年中，我們提高了毛利率。

And as I said in earlier calls, really driven by a couple of key test systems coming online and we're shipping in volume that have come down the cost curve.

正如我在之前的電話會議中所說，實際上是由幾個關鍵的測試系統上線驅動的，我們的出貨量已經降低了成本曲線。

We've seen some benefits to product mix shift as well as our operating leverage offsetting the component costs and logistic cost increases.

我們已經看到產品組合轉變以及我們的運營槓桿抵消了組件成本和物流成本增加的一些好處。

From a look forward and sustainability of that gross margin, obviously, we'll give an update to our earnings model in January.

顯然，從毛利率的前景和可持續性來看，我們將在 1 月份更新我們的盈利模型。

But I see the second half of our gross margin performance kind of going into the first half of 2022.

但我認為我們下半年的毛利率表現會進入 2022 年上半年。

Your next question comes from Mehdi Hosseini with SIG.

您的下一個問題來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

Yes, the first one has to do with your largest customer.

是的，第一個與您最大的客戶有關。

And given your commentary in terms of revenue mix, it seems to me that that particular customer is going to be down like 5% to 6%.

鑑於您對收入組合的評論，在我看來，該特定客戶將下降 5% 至 6%。

In that context, should we assume a return to growth in '22, and this is a trend that has happened over the past several years?

在這種情況下，我們是否應該假設在 22 年恢復增長，而這是過去幾年發生的趨勢？

And should that happen again -- Should that pattern happen again into '22?

這種情況是否會再次發生——這種模式是否會在 22 年再次發生？

And I have a follow-up.

我有一個後續行動。

Yes.

是的。

We, of course, maybe can't talk about any individual customer and what they might do or not do in the future.

當然，我們可能無法談論任何個人客戶以及他們將來可能會做什麼或不做什麼。

So that I have to leave aside.

所以我不得不離開。

But I just point out in your first point that, yes, our largest customer is dropping below 20% in a growing revenue year.

但我只是在你的第一點中指出，是的，我們最大的客戶在收入增長的一年中下降到 20% 以下。

So the amount that you might think compute that they're falling has to be taken against our numerator of higher revenue.

因此，您可能認為他們正在下降的金額必須與我們更高收入的分子相比較。

Got it.

知道了。

And then I wanted to follow up to the question that came up 3 months ago when we were looking into your market share in the compute.

然後我想跟進 3 個月前我們在調查您在計算領域的市場份額時提出的問題。

Can you update us where you are with that market share in 2021?

你能告訴我們你在 2021 年的市場份額在哪裡嗎？

And as hyperscalers ramp their own ARM-based CPUs, how will your market share change over the next 1 or 2 years?

隨著超大規模廠商推出基於 ARM 的 CPU，您的市場份額在未來 1 年或 2 年將如何變化？

Well, like the total SOC market, year-to-year market share is very volatile.

嗯，就像整個 SOC 市場一樣，每年的市場份額非常不穩定。

It depends on whose customers are buying what in any given year.

這取決於在任何給定年份誰的客戶在購買什麼。

So what our market share might be in any given year, it can -- in a submarket like compute, it can swing 20 points year-to-year depending on who's buying.

因此，我們在任何一年的市場份額都可以——在計算等子市場中，它可以每年波動 20 個百分點，具體取決於購買者。

So for this year, it tends to be a very good compute year for us.

因此，對於今年來說，這對我們來說往往是一個非常好的計算年。

Our compute market share is up in, I would say, close to what our average share is in SOC this year.

我想說，我們的計算市場份額正在上升，接近我們今年在 SOC 中的平均份額。

But I would say that it's not steady Eddie.

但我會說這不是穩定的埃迪。

It's going to be pretty volatile year-to-year, it has been in the past.

每年都會非常不穩定，過去一直如此。

It probably will be going forward, too.

它可能也會向前發展。

I know we're supposed to ask only 2 questions, but just a quick follow-up.

我知道我們應該只問 2 個問題，但只是快速跟進。

I think what I'm trying to understand is I think on the GPU side, it's pretty clear that your competitor has dominated.

我想我想了解的是我認為在 GPU 方面，很明顯你的競爭對手已經佔據主導地位。

And assuming that that work to remain unchanged, I think the incremental change to the compute is all driven by ARM-based.

假設這項工作保持不變，我認為計算的增量變化都是由基於 ARM 的驅動的。

And I was just trying to better understand how you look at your competitive position as these new chips coming to the market addressing the compute end market?

我只是想更好地了解您如何看待這些新芯片進入市場以解決計算終端市場的競爭地位？

We -- look, we're very pleased and confident with our progress in ARM-based compute and design-ins in that realm, but I would say that it's not -- there's the tester market for compute also driven by more traditional x86 demand as well.

我們——看，我們對我們在該領域基於 ARM 的計算和設計的進展感到非常高興和自信，但我想說不是——計算測試儀市場也受到更傳統的 x86 需求的推動也是。

You've got a couple of suppliers there that are not standing still, as I mentioned, and are upping their kind of complexity growth curve.

正如我所提到的，你有幾個供應商並沒有停滯不前，並且正在提高他們的複雜性增長曲線。

And so there will be certainly a lot of growth there as well, I believe.

所以我相信那里肯定也會有很大的增長。

Your next question comes from Toshiya Hari, Goldman Sachs.

您的下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

Congrats on the strong execution.

祝賀強大的執行力。

I had 2 questions as well.

我也有2個問題。

My first one is on the supply constraints, maybe for Mark, maybe for Sanjay.

我的第一個問題是供應限制，可能是馬克，也可能是桑傑。

Just curious how significant the headwinds were for IA in Q3 and what's embedded in your Q4 guidance?

只是好奇第三季度對 IA 的不利影響有多大，以及您的第四季度指導中包含什麼？

If you can share that, that would be helpful.

如果您可以分享，那將很有幫助。

And I just wanted to confirm that there was little to no impact on your Semi Test business.

我只是想確認對您的半測試業務幾乎沒有影響。

And then on gross margins, similarly, you came in at the high end of your guided range, but was there any impact on your profitability in the quarter from supply chain shortages?

然後在毛利率方面，類似地，您進入了指導範圍的高端，但是供應鏈短缺對您本季度的盈利能力有任何影響嗎？

Sure.

當然。

So I'll take those.

所以我會拿那些。

So from an Industrial Automation perspective, year-to-date, we've grown 40% in IA, and Q4 demand is high.

因此，從工業自動化的角度來看，今年迄今為止，我們在 IA 方面增長了 40%，第四季度的需求很高。

If we can't supply at all, that's why we've -- I think it's going to be growth year-on-year of about 30% to 40%.

如果我們根本無法供應，這就是為什麼我們 - 我認為這將是同比增長約 30% 到 40% 的原因。

And so predominantly, it's in semiconductors.

因此，主要是在半導體中。

And I expect we'll be out of the supply chain crunch given our visibility in Q2 or Q3 for IA.

鑑於我們在第二季度或第三季度對 IA 的可見性，我預計我們將擺脫供應鏈緊縮。

So that's the IA side.

這就是IA方面。

And then from a supply chain perspective on the test side, we've seen the supply chain tightening on the test portfolio quarter-over-quarter, where we don't think it's going to be abated until the end of Q2 of 2022.

然後從測試方面的供應鏈角度來看，我們看到測試組合的供應鏈環比收緊，我們認為直到 2022 年第二季度末才會有所緩解。

And again, mainly semiconductor parts.

再次，主要是半導體零件。

And really, we see that coming back online in the second half, really tied to the wafer and the substrate capacity coming online.

真的，我們看到下半年會重新上線，這與晶圓和基板產能的上線息息相關。

And then from a gross margin perspective, we've been managing through the component increases and logistics increases in cost.

然後從毛利率的角度來看，我們一直在通過組件增加和物流成本增加進行管理。

And we've -- as I've said earlier, we've had favorable product mix.

而且我們 - 正如我之前所說，我們擁有有利的產品組合。

And as our volumes or our revenues are higher, we're gaining operating leverage along with coming down the cost curve of our new products that we've introduced late last year.

隨著我們的銷量或收入增加，我們正在獲得運營槓桿，同時降低了去年年底推出的新產品的成本曲線。

So we're managing through it, and it's true well-publicized component cost increases.

所以我們正在通過它進行管理，這是真正廣為人知的組件成本增加。

Got it.

知道了。

That's super helpful.

這非常有幫助。

And then as my follow-up, Mark, I wanted to ask about your Eagle Test business.

然後，作為我的後續行動，馬克，我想問一下您的 Eagle Test 業務。

In your prepared remarks, you noted that the business is up more than 2x year-to-date.

在您準備好的評論中，您指出該業務今年迄今增長了 2 倍以上。

I guess historically, like many other parts of your business, I think the Eagle Test has been quite cyclical.

我想從歷史上看，就像您業務的許多其他部分一樣，我認為 Eagle 測試具有相當的周期性。

You would be up for 1 year, 1.5 years, 4 to 6 quarters and then down a little bit as customers digest their test capacity.

你會上升 1 年、1.5 年、4 到 6 個季度，然後隨著客戶消化他們的測試能力而下降一點。

Based on what you said, it seemed like you're expecting 2022 to be another strong year.

根據您所說的，您似乎預計 2022 年將是又一個強勁的一年。

I guess the question is what's different this time as you think about Eagle Test into '22.

我想問題是，當您想到 22 年的 Eagle Test 時，這次有什麼不同。

I realize there's complexity growth, but you could argue there's been complexity growth for a very long time.

我意識到復雜性在增長，但你可以說複雜性增長已經很長時間了。

So just curious how different this cycle could be relative to past cycles.

所以只是好奇這個週期與過去的周期有多大不同。

Right.

正確的。

Good question.

好問題。

And in addition, automobile unit volume isn't near its historical peak either.

此外，汽車銷量也未接近歷史峰值。

So how could this thing keep going beyond the normal 6-quarter surge in automotive, which is you're right, again, that's kind of the traditional pattern.

那麼，這件事怎麼能繼續超出汽車行業正常的 6 個季度的激增，這是你的正確做法，這又是一種傳統模式。

But I think what we see happening and makes us believe this will persist at least through 2022 is there's a lot of silicon refresh going on that's new in the automotive space.

但我認為我們看到正在發生的事情並使我們相信這將至少持續到 2022 年，因為汽車領域正在進行大量的矽更新。

New -- kind of racing to get new, more current generation lithography node silicon into automotive design because the legacy lines out there are hard to get at.

新——一種將新的、更當前一代的光刻節點矽引入汽車設計的競賽，因為那裡的傳統生產線很難獲得。

Chip suppliers are trying to obsolete those fabs.

芯片供應商正試圖淘汰這些晶圓廠。

And so the automotive customers don't have as much, I would say, power in this frothy demand environment on the semiconductor supply side.

因此，我想說，在半導體供應方面這種充滿泡沫的需求環境中，汽車客戶沒有那麼多的權力。

And so the semiconductor suppliers are kind of same, get with the program, move to more advanced nodes.

所以半導體供應商也是一樣的，接受這個計劃，轉向更先進的節點。

And a little bit of that's happening, which is what -- that means complexity, yield issues, and that means a little more test than you might expect.

有一點正在發生，這就是——這意味著複雜性、產量問題，這意味著比你預期的要多一點的測試。

And I think that's what's giving us a different view this time.

我認為這就是這次給我們帶來不同觀點的原因。

Your next question comes from John Pitzer, Credit Suisse.

您的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 John Pitzer。

Congratulations on the solid results.

祝賀你取得了堅實的成果。

Mark, I want to go back to increasing test times in the Semi Test business.

馬克，我想回到增加半測試業務的測試時間。

You've done a good job kind of helping us understand complexity and transistor count.

您在幫助我們了解複雜性和晶體管數量方面做得很好。

I'm kind of curious, as we move from a world of sort of general purpose compute to one of more optimized silicon, you're going to move from a world where you're testing huge volumes in one device to smaller volumes across multiple devices.

我有點好奇，當我們從一種通用計算的世界轉向一種更優化的芯片時，你將從一個在一個設備中測試大量數據的世界轉向跨多個設備的小體積設備。

What does that do for test efficiency at your customers and hence, test times as that trend takes hold?

這對您的客戶的測試效率以及測試時間有什麼影響？

It is a -- building, let's say, 100 billion transistors on 1 chip versus 4, to give an example, isn't equivalent test time.

舉個例子，在 1 個芯片上構建 1000 億個晶體管而不是 4 個，這不是等效的測試時間。

The 4-chip version is likely -- these are going to be rough rules of thumb, but let's say, 25% more test intensive than the single chip design because there's a premium on sort of known good die testing to -- when you put those together in an advanced package.

4 芯片版本很可能——這些將是粗略的經驗法則，但假設測試密集度比單芯片設計高 25%，因為在某種已知的良好芯片測試方面存在溢價——當你投入將它們放在一個高級包中。

And then the advanced package itself has more potential defect failure modes that need to be tested.

然後高級包本身有更多潛在的缺陷失效模式需要測試。

So that's one thing around the whole chiplet, multi-chip package thing.

所以這是圍繞整個小芯片、多芯片封裝的一件事。

The other thing, though, that's happening, and this is really going to become prevalent at 3-nanometer and beyond is the move from FinFET to gate-all-around transistor architectures.

不過，另一件事正在發生，而且這在 3 納米及以後將變得普遍，這就是從 FinFET 向環柵晶體管架構的轉變。

And if you remember, when the world moved from planar to FinFET, it was back in 2012, '13, '14 era, that drove -- if you go back and look at the history of sort of the test market, that drove incremental test intensity and complexity in the market.

如果你還記得，當世界從平面轉向 FinFET 時，那是在 2012 年，13 年，14 年的時代，推動了——如果你回顧一下測試市場的歷史，推動了增量市場中的測試強度和復雜性。

And we're headed for another one of those with gate-all-around.

我們正朝著另一個擁有全能門的方向前進。

There's going to be new defect modes, new kind of test intensity boosts coming from this new architecture on the transistor.

將會有新的缺陷模式，新的測試強度提升來自晶體管上的這種新架構。

So even at equivalent transistor counts, we're going to see a little bit more test intensity because of that.

因此，即使在晶體管數量相同的情況下，我們也會因此看到更多的測試強度。

So these 2 trends of chiplets and gate-all-around and 3-nanometer, that's probably all the 2023 and beyond story given where 3-nanometer is right now, but it's coming.

因此，考慮到 3 納米現在的位置，這可能是 2023 年及以後的故事，但它即將到來。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And that's my second question, Mark, just going back to your largest customer, I'm kind of curious if you can help me better understand the diversity of business with that customer.

這是我的第二個問題，馬克，回到你最大的客戶，我很好奇你是否能幫助我更好地了解與該客戶的業務多樣性。

I mean clearly, it's been mobility-led for the last several years.

我的意思很清楚，在過去的幾年裡，它一直以移動性為主導。

Now you've got them doing more in the compute space.

現在你已經讓他們在計算空間中做更多的事情了。

You've talked about in the past the complexity around these AirTags.

您過去曾討論過圍繞這些 AirTags 的複雜性。

Are you seeing a meaningful diversification of demand drivers at that customer?

您是否看到該客戶的需求驅動因素存在有意義的多樣化？

And can you help me -- because I just don't know how fungible is your -- is their test capacity across those different product families?

你能幫我嗎——因為我只是不知道你的可替代性如何——他們在這些不同產品系列中的測試能力是什麼？

Yes, I'm not going to be able to talk too much about the sort of breadth there.

是的，我不會過多談論那裡的廣度。

I think you can imagine it, and you've rattled off some examples.

我想你可以想像它，而且你已經列舉了一些例子。

In terms of fungibility, they're pretty fungible to testers across what's used for compute engine in a phone versus a compute engine in a laptop or a desktop or anything else.

在可替代性方面，對於測試人員來說，它們在手機中的計算引擎與筆記本電腦或台式機或其他任何東西中的計算引擎之間是相當可替代的。

The one that's a little bit unique is when you get into things like, the RF type products, of course, have a bit of a different architecture, power management type products have a bit of a different architecture.

有點獨特的是，當您進入諸如 RF 類型的產品，當然，有一點不同的架構，電源管理類型的產品有一點不同的架構。

And so those testers tend to be a little more unique.

因此，這些測試人員往往更加獨特。

But we've talked about in the past that -- I think people have looked at us and said, well, in a world where cell phones are kind of plateauing, doesn't that -- unit growth of cell phones doesn't that that portends some kind of slowing for us.

但我們過去曾討論過——我認為人們看著我們說，好吧，在一個手機處於平穩狀態的世界裡，不是嗎——手機的單位增長不是這對我們來說預示著某種放緩。

And what we've always said is that, look, cell phone unit growth can slow, complexity isn't.

我們一直說的是，看，手機單元增長會放緩，複雜性不會。

And some of these customers are diversifying into more silicon, both in the phone and now more silicon outside the phone into compute.

其中一些客戶正在向更多的芯片多樣化，包括手機中的芯片以及現在更多的手機以外的芯片進入計算領域。

There are these emerging hyperscalers that are building silicon for both cloud computing and other new yet-to-be introduced consumer products.

這些新興的超大規模廠商正在為雲計算和其他尚未推出的新消費產品構建芯片。

So the ability of a design team today to be formed and put together a $10 billion-plus transistor chip for a consumer application is easier and easier and easier.

因此，如今組建設計團隊並將價值超過 100 億美元的晶體管芯片組裝到消費應用中的能力越來越容易，越來越容易。

And as I said in my script, we work with a lot of them.

正如我在劇本中所說，我們與他們中的很多人合作。

Maybe a small fraction of them will be hits in the future, but they can bring entirely new classes of semiconductor -- high compute engine semiconductor applications to the market.

也許其中一小部分會在未來大受歡迎，但它們可以將全新的半導體類別——高計算引擎半導體應用推向市場。

And all of those are kind of UltraFLEX, UltraFLEXplus family devices.

所有這些都是 UltraFLEX、UltraFLEXplus 系列設備。

Your next question comes from C.J. Muse of Evercore.

您的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 C.J. Muse。

I guess, Mark, another technology question.

我想，馬克，另一個技術問題。

You've kind of taught us to think about transistor count in kind of thinking about test times for mobility compute.

您在某種程度上教我們在考慮移動計算的測試時間時考慮晶體管數量。

And curious, as we go to more high-performance compute, where there are more thermal issues, perhaps more complex software algorithms, how should we be thinking about the test times in that transition?

好奇的是，隨著我們轉向更高性能的計算，那裡有更多的熱問題，也許更複雜的軟件算法，我們應該如何考慮這種過渡中的測試時間？

Well, I think the test times have less to do with the application.

好吧，我認為測試時間與應用程序的關係不大。

The only place where the application drives really fundamentally different test times as automotive because of the issues there.

由於那裡的問題，應用程序驅動真正與汽車測試時間完全不同的唯一地方。

It's more the technology.

更多的是技術。

So I go back to C.J., what I said before about 3-nanometer is going to be more impactful to both test times in phones and in computers and in servers and in graphics and in everything else, probably than any of those end market applications.

所以我回到 C.J.，我之前所說的關於 3 納米的內容將對手機、計算機、服務器、圖形和其他一切的測試時間產生更大的影響，可能比任何這些終端市場應用程序都更具影響力。

Okay.

好的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then I guess, Sanjay, a question for you.

然後我想，桑傑，問你一個問題。

Clearly, you're making investments, particularly in IA.

顯然，您正在進行投資，尤其是在 IA 方面。

But as you look to 2022, can you speak to your outlook for operating leverage.

但是，當您展望 2022 年時，您能否談談您對經營槓桿的展望。

And as part of that, how we should think about OpEx relative to top line growth?

作為其中的一部分，我們應該如何考慮相對於收入增長的運營支出？

Sure.

當然。

I'd say we're in the early innings of looking at 2022 and obviously, we'll provide an update in January.

我想說我們正處於 2022 年的早期階段，顯然，我們將在一月份提供更新。

But OpEx is growing in kind of a couple of key areas this year, obviously tied to higher volume, we have variable compensation as well as engineering spends tied to our operations to qualify new suppliers et cetera.

但今年運營支出在幾個關鍵領域都在增長，顯然與更高的產量有關，我們有可變的薪酬以及與我們的運營相關的工程支出，以使新供應商合格等。

And then we continue to invest in both go-to-market and engineering across the test portfolio.

然後我們繼續投資於整個測試產品組合的上市和工程設計。

And as you noted, we're leaning in, obviously, in -- as I noted in my prepared remarks, we're leaning into our IA investments really to help drive going forward.

正如你所指出的，我們顯然傾向於 - 正如我在準備好的評論中指出的那樣，我們傾向於我們的 IA 投資，以幫助推動前進。

The other component is the G&A expenses going forward.

另一個組成部分是未來的 G&A 費用。

This was a big year of OpEx growth.

這是運營支出增長的重要一年。

The only thing I'd say is that next year we're not going to be as large percentage-wise growth, but that's really all I have to say on it right now.

我唯一想說的是，明年我們不會有那麼大的百分比增長，但這就是我現在要說的全部內容。

Your next question comes from Timothy Arcuri, UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Timothy Arcuri。

Mark, I just wanted to see if you can update us on the SOC TAM.

馬克，我只是想看看你是否可以在 SOC TAM 上更新我們。

You had said 4, 5 last call and segments of that was compute was about $1 billion.

您曾說過最後一次通話 4、5 次，其中計算部分約為 10 億美元。

Mobility was 1.8 to 1.85.

流動性為 1.8 至 1.85。

Autos were about 500, Industrial was 500, 550.

汽車大約是 500，工業是 500、550。

I'm just kind of wondering if you can update us on those numbers.

我只是想知道您是否可以向我們更新這些數字。

Yes.

是的。

Good question.

好問題。

So fundamentally, it's in the same range.

所以從根本上說，它在同一個範圍內。

It's probably trending more up towards the higher end of that range.

它可能更趨向於該範圍的高端。

So I think the numbers, the submarkets you got right on what we talked about last time, maybe compute is driving us a little bit higher in that range at this point in time.

所以我認為你在我們上次談到的內容上得到的數字，子市場，也許計算正在推動我們在這個時間點的範圍內走高一點。

But it's pretty close.

但它非常接近。

And memory is still at about $1 billion TAM as well.

內存也仍然在 10 億美元左右。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

And then I guess I had a question just on profitability in IA.

然後我想我有一個關於 IA 盈利能力的問題。

I note, Sanjay, you just answered a question about operating leverage next year.

我注意到，桑傑，你剛剛回答了一個關於明年運營槓桿的問題。

But what's the catalyst maybe -- this time last year, we were thinking IA would be 10% to 15% op margin and then it got cut to 10% and then it went to 5%, and now it's kind of low single digits.

但催化劑可能是什麼 - 去年這個時候，我們認為 IA 將是 10% 到 15% 的運營利潤率，然後它被削減到 10%，然後又下降到 5%，現在它有點低個位數。

And I get that the penetration there is very low.

我知道那裡的滲透率非常低。

But what's the catalysts for you to look at maybe we shouldn't be investing so much money and maybe we can optimize OpEx investment?

但是你看的催化劑是什麼，也許我們不應該投資這麼多錢，也許我們可以優化 OpEx 投資？

So I guess I'm just kind of wondering how you think about sort of what's going on at IA and what the long-term profitability target is?

所以我想我只是想知道你如何看待 IA 正在發生的事情以及長期盈利目標是什麼？

Yes.

是的。

So our range, as we said prior is 5% to 15%, and we expect to be low single digits, as I said in my prepared remarks.

因此，正如我們之前所說，我們的範圍是 5% 到 15%，正如我在準備好的評論中所說，我們預計將是低個位數。

But really, how we think about it is we manage the business on a -- think about it as a rule of 40, combining the year-over-year growth with the operating profit.

但實際上，我們如何看待它是我們按照 40 條規則來管理業務，將同比增長與營業利潤相結合。

And fundamentally, we're -- as we see or as been noted by Mark, where penetration is very, very low and we look at all the jobs that can be automated and the scarcity of labor and economic growth, we really see a strong tailwind for the portfolio.

從根本上說，我們 - 正如我們所看到或馬克所指出的那樣，滲透率非常非常低，我們看到所有可以自動化的工作以及勞動力和經濟增長的稀缺性，我們確實看到了強大的投資組合的順風。

And with that, we're very focused and conscious on both engineering and go-to-market investments.

因此，我們非常專注於工程和上市投資。

And so how we think about it is quite simple.

所以我們如何看待它很簡單。

And that is where we have a strong belief that we're going to grow and it's going to accelerate that revenue growth, we're going to lean into the investment.

這就是我們堅信我們會增長的地方，它將加速收入增長，我們將投入投資。

And again, think about it in the rule of 40.

再一次，在 40 的規則中考慮它。

And as I said in my prepared remarks, our gross margins are actually improving in that portfolio.

正如我在準備好的評論中所說，我們的毛利率實際上在該投資組合中有所提高。

And so when we see that growth start to moderate, then we'll start to moderate the OpEx to get to an operating profit of, let's say, in the mid-20s.

因此，當我們看到增長開始放緩時，我們將開始放緩 OpEx 以達到 20 年代中期的營業利潤。

Your next question comes from Vivek Arya, Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Vivek Arya。

Mark, this move to 3-nanometer, is that a benefit for Teradyne in '22 or '23?

馬克，向 3 納米邁進，這是泰瑞達在 22 年還是 23 年的好處嗎？

I thought it would be '23, but I wanted to confirm.

我以為會是 23 年，但我想確認一下。

And kind of following on for that, what are the top 1 or 2 end markets that you are most excited about in terms of growth for next year?

接下來，就明年的增長而言，您最興奮的前 1 或 2 個終端市場是什麼？

So on the 3-nanometer question, that was one of the things I mentioned that we'll be looking at carefully between now and January when we update you on the 2022 view.

所以關於 3 納米的問題，這是我提到的事情之一，我們將在從現在到 1 月份更新您關於 2022 年的觀點時仔細研究。

And we've seen some pushouts on some of those nodes for a -- by a few months.

幾個月來，我們已經看到其中一些節點上出現了一些推送。

So the ability to intercept them in a meaningful way in Q -- or sorry, in 2022 is a swing factor.

因此，在 Q 中以有意義的方式攔截它們的能力——或者對不起，在 2022 年是一個搖擺因素。

We don't see that exactly yet.

我們還沒有確切地看到這一點。

But whatever happens in 2022, it might get some early ramping, but the bulk of it is going to be 2023, '24, '25 kind of and beyond.

但無論 2022 年發生什麼，它可能會提前一些，但大部分將是 2023 年、24 年、25 年及以後。

So a little bit could happen in '22, how much we won't know more until January.

所以在 22 年可能會發生一些事情，直到 1 月份我們才會知道更多。

In terms of markets next year that are interesting and exciting, I think it goes back to these emergent hyperscalers that are developing some new applications and very complex silicon for those new applications.

就明年有趣和令人興奮的市場而言，我認為這可以追溯到這些新興的超大規模企業，他們正在為這些新應用開發一些新應用和非常複雜的芯片。

Some of those could latch in the market with new product introductions and drive a whole new sort of demand stream for semiconductors and the testers associated with them.

其中一些可能會隨著新產品的推出而進入市場，並推動對半導體和與之相關的測試儀的全新需求流。

So that's kind of what we're rooting for and what we're close to, and we're seeing could be breakouts for 2022.

所以這就是我們所支持的，也是我們接近的，我們看到的可能是 2022 年的突破。

Got it.

知道了。

Very helpful.

非常有幫助。

And maybe just following up on that.

也許只是跟進。

Is there a way, Mark, to contrast the additional complexity in a product that's going into a hyperscaler application versus a mobility application.

馬克，有沒有辦法對比進入超大規模應用程序和移動應用程序的產品的額外複雜性。

I understand die sizes might be different, then packaging, et cetera, might be different.

我知道裸片尺寸可能會有所不同，然後包裝等可能會有所不同。

But in -- conceptually, what does the mix shift from a more mobility heavy end market to something that is taking you more into the compute and hyperscaler land means for Teradyne in terms of your growth prospects?

但在 - 從概念上講，從移動性更強的終端市場轉變為讓您更多地進入計算和超大規模領域的市場對泰瑞達的增長前景意味著什麼？

And also the -- just the seasonality because mobility tends to be a lot more seasonal markets.

還有——只是季節性，因為流動性往往是更多的季節性市場。

Those other markets are perhaps less seasonal.

那些其他市場可能沒有那麼季節性。

So what does that mix shift mean for Teradyne over the long term?

那麼從長遠來看，這種混合轉變對泰瑞達意味著什麼？

Yes, that's a good question.

是的，這是個好問題。

And the range of devices being developed at hyperscalers is quite large.

超大規模公司正在開發的設備範圍非常大。

Some of them are simpler than a classic cellphone device, apps processor in a cell phone.

其中一些比經典的手機設備、手機中的應用程序處理器更簡單。

So those aren't going to have much of an impact even if they latch.

因此，即使它們鎖定，它們也不會產生太大影響。

But some of them that are more, I would say, leverage AI, machine learning and high res displays are equal to or greater complexity than what you might find in a typical cell phone application for those technologies.

但我想說，其中一些更多地利用人工智能、機器學習和高分辨率顯示器，其複雜性等於或高於你在典型手機應用程序中可能發現的這些技術的複雜性。

So it's a broad spectrum is, I guess, the bottom line.

所以，我想，它的範圍很廣，是底線。

But if you sort of play it out, I'd say the hyperscalers are going to, on average, bring cell phone-like complexity applications to the market.

但如果你把它發揮出來，我會說超大規模廠商平均而言會將類似手機的複雜應用程序推向市場。

It's probably not going to be something that's -- take the $50 billion transistor device that kind of surprised everybody.

它可能不會是這樣的事情——以價值 500 億美元的晶體管設備為例，讓每個人都感到驚訝。

It's probably not at that extreme.

應該沒有那麼極端吧。

It's probably more in the $10 billion transistor range on average and then moving up year-over-year-over-year after that as they iterate on the design.

平均而言，它可能更多在 100 億美元的晶體管範圍內，然後隨著他們對設計的迭代而逐年上升。

Your next question comes from Krish Sankar with Cowen and Company.

您的下一個問題來自與 Cowen and Company 的 Krish Sankar。

I have 2 questions.

我有 2 個問題。

Mark, just want to ask the 3-nanometer question in a different way, you spoke about how test investments have to catch up to front end WFE spending.

馬克，只是想以不同的方式提出 3 納米問題，您談到了測試投資必須如何趕上前端 WFE 支出。

But during the 3D NAND investment cycle WFE grew in 2016 and '17, while the memory test spending kind of came in 2018 in a meaningful way.

但在 3D NAND 投資週期中，WFE 在 2016 年和 17 年增長，而內存測試支出在 2018 年以有意義的方式出現。

So I'm kind of curious, how should we think about the time lag effect of test to front end foundry logic WFE this time around?

所以我有點好奇，這次我們應該如何考慮測試對前端代工邏輯 WFE 的時滯效應？

Yes.

是的。

Good questions.

好問題。

So all of the WFE investment gets recognized before single testers associated with that investment.

因此，所有 WFE 投資都會在與該投資相關的單個測試人員之前得到認可。

So the way to think about test is whenever you see some silicon coming off a new node, assume that the testers were installed maybe 3 months or so prior to that.

因此，考慮測試的方式是，每當您看到一些矽片從新節點脫落時，假設測試儀可能在此之前 3 個月左右安裝。

So once the 3-nanometer fab comes online and you start to see product coming off of it in reasonable volume more than sort of pilot line volume, assume that the tester installations occurred about 3 months prior.

因此，一旦 3 納米晶圓廠上線，並且您開始看到從其生產出來的產品數量合理，超過了試產線數量，假設測試儀安裝發生在大約 3 個月前。

That's kind of the best guidance I can give you there.

這是我可以給你的最好的指導。

And then the only other thing I would caution about memory versus SOC is that the curve of test time to transistor count is not the same in memory as it is in SOC.

關於內存與 SOC，我唯一要注意的另一件事是，內存中的測試時間與晶體管數量的曲線與 SOC 中的曲線不同。

Memory tends to be a bit more efficient for reasons I won't get into here.

由於我不會在這裡討論的原因，內存往往會更有效率。

So you can double transistors and memory, and you're not going to probably move test time more than 20%, 30% or so, let's say, whereas in SOC, it's not quite linear, but it's closer.

因此，您可以將晶體管和內存加倍，並且您可能不會將測試時間移動超過 20%、30% 左右，比方說，而在 SOC 中，它不是很線性，但更接近。

Got it.

知道了。

Got it.

知道了。

That's very helpful, Mark.

這很有幫助，馬克。

Then I have a follow-up for Sanjay on gross margins.

然後我對桑傑的毛利率進行了跟進。

Despite the constrained environment, gross margins have stepped up about 200-plus basis points over the last like 4 quarters or so to a 59% to 60% range.

儘管環境受到限制，但毛利率在過去 4 個季度左右上升了約 200 多個基點，達到 59% 至 60% 的範圍。

Is this kind of the new baseline we should assume at these revenue run rates?

在這些收入運行率下，我們應該假設這種新基線嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I think I talked about that earlier.

我想我之前已經談過了。

So we're going through our strategic planning process in Q4, and it's really the basis of our earnings model update in January.

因此，我們將在第四季度完成我們的戰略規劃流程，這實際上是我們在一月份更新盈利模型的基礎。

As I've said, just having some visibility into the first half of next year, I think you should expect to see that gross margin be similar in the first half of next year as we have in the second half of 2021.

正如我所說，只要對明年上半年有所了解，我認為您應該期望看到明年上半年的毛利率與 2021 年下半年相似。

From -- and so there's many different variables in there.

從——那裡有很多不同的變量。

I noted that we've been managing through the component and logistics cost increase.

我注意到我們一直在管理組件和物流成本的增加。

We've had good mix and come down the cost curve of our new products and gaining operating leverage.

我們有很好的組合，降低了新產品的成本曲線，並獲得了經營槓桿。

So there's many variables in there that we're going to look at closely and as our revenue gets more and more diversified.

因此，隨著我們的收入越來越多樣化，我們將密切關注其中的許多變量。

There's a lot of puts and takes, but we'll provide more guidance on that in the January call.

有很多看跌期權，但我們將在 1 月份的電話會議中提供更多指導。

Your next question comes from Brian Chin, Stifel.

您的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Brian Chin。

Nice results.

不錯的結果。

Sorry, first to clarify something going back on the commentary.

抱歉，首先要澄清一些關於評論的內容。

If you had more chips, you would be able to ship to an appreciably higher level of revenue in both the Semi Test and Industrial Automation businesses in Q4.

如果你有更多的芯片，你將能夠在第四季度的半測試和工業自動化業務中實現更高水平的收入。

Did I hear that correctly?

我沒聽錯嗎？

In Industrial Automation, percentage-wise, we'd be able to ship more.

在工業自動化領域，按百分比計算，我們可以出貨更多。

In the Test portfolio, we think we're going to manage through the majority of the supply issues at this point.

在測試產品組合中，我們認為此時我們將解決大部分供應問題。

Okay.

好的。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

And then interesting discussion here on 3-nanometer and sort of like a fulcrum event in terms of test intensity again at 3-nanometer or gate-all-around.

然後在這裡對 3 納米進行有趣的討論，就測試強度而言，有點像一個支點事件，再次是 3 納米或全柵。

Maybe a couple of questions as my follow-up.

也許有幾個問題作為我的後續行動。

What is it about that, that -- I know it probably is a longer-form discussion, but in short form, what is it about 3-nanometer or 3-nanometer gate-all-around, is it sort of what the yield modeling suggests for kind of lower yield rates there compounded by die sizes, compounded by transistors or advanced packaging?

它是什麼，那個 - 我知道這可能是一個較長形式的討論，但簡而言之，它是什麼關於 3 納米或 3 納米門環，它是什麼產量建模建議由於芯片尺寸、晶體管或先進封裝而導致的較低良率？

Or is it also sort of a combination of the types of devices that you think that enables in terms of the intersection point of various customers and their kind of chip road maps?

還是您認為根據不同客戶的交叉點和他們的芯片路線圖類型實現的設備類型的組合？

Just kind of want to get at that.

只是有點想明白這一點。

And then like in kind of bigger picture, if the high-performance compute test TAM is a little bit more secular, a little bit more growthy, if you've kind of benchmarked test growth at sort of 4% to 8%, how much of a premium do you think we're looking at over the next several years in terms of HPC TAM?

然後就像在更大的圖景中一樣，如果高性能計算測試 TAM 更世俗一點，增長一點點，如果你的基準測試增長在 4% 到 8% 之間，多少就 HPC TAM 而言，您認為我們在未來幾年內會考慮溢價嗎？

Okay.

好的。

there's a lot in there, Brian.

裡面有很多東西，布賴恩。

So let me, first of all, take on 3-nanometer.

所以，讓我，首先，採用 3 納米。

So the issues about 3-nanometer certainly enables more dense, more transistors per die.

因此，關於 3 納米的問題肯定會實現更密集、每個裸片更多的晶體管。

That's not what I'm talking about.

這不是我要說的。

That's a big driver of test in the future.

這是未來測試的一大推動力。

That would absolutely be something that would give us a positive outlook for the next midterm.

這絕對會給我們下一個中期帶來積極的前景。

There's the chiplet thing that we talked about where you have mixed nodes going into chips, and then you need known good die testing and then the multi-packaging needs increasingly test intensity.

有我們談到的小芯片問題，您將混合節點放入芯片中，然後您需要已知良好的裸片測試，然後多封裝需要越來越多的測試強度。

That's not what I'm talking about.

這不是我要說的。

But that's real and that's there, too.

但那是真實的，那也是存在的。

The thing that I'm talking about with 3-nanometer that's unique, let's say, is the change in the transistor architecture from FinFET to gate-all-around.

我所說的 3 納米的獨特之處在於晶體管架構從 FinFET 到環柵的變化。

That happens once per decade.

這種情況每十年發生一次。

Again, it happened with FinFETs earlier in the last decade.

再一次，它發生在過去十年早些時候的 FinFET 上。

It's happening with gate-all-around here in the next few years.

在接下來的幾年裡，這一切都會發生在這裡。

Those transitions, everything else being equal, introduce additional, typically, failure modes that need more test methodologies to make sure the device is functioning correctly.

在其他條件相同的情況下，這些轉換通常會引入額外的故障模式，需要更多的測試方法來確保設備正常運行。

And so let's say, the average test time per transistor can tend to be higher because of the additional verification needed related to that new architecture.

因此，假設每個晶體管的平均測試時間可能會更長，因為需要與新架構相關的額外驗證。

Now early in the architecture's life, that tends to be higher.

現在在建築生命的早期，這往往更高。

As the architecture matures over time, that premium, let's say, comes down.

隨著架構隨著時間的推移而成熟，比方說，這種溢價會下降。

So -- and the world doesn't shift to 3-nanometer en masse day 1 either.

所以——世界也不會在第一天大規模轉向 3 納米。

So there's this bleeding up of certain devices using 3-nanometer that are highly test-intensive and more and more come online year after year, and then the learning curve comes on.

因此，某些使用 3 納米技術的設備出現了這種情況，這些設備測試密集度很高，並且年復一年地越來越多的設備上線，然後學習曲線就開始了。

But net-net, again, if you look at the test market from 2000 to 2012, it had been a declining market.

但是net-net，再一次，如果你看看2000年到2012年的測試市場，它一直是一個下滑的市場。

And 2012 to now, it's been growing quite well in excess of 10%.

從 2012 年到現在，它的增長率一直超過 10%。

Part of that is the parallel testing, ameliorating that we've talked about, part of it's the FinFET story that we've talked about and the growing transistor count.

其中一部分是並行測試，改善了我們已經談到的，部分是我們談到的 FinFET 故事和不斷增長的晶體管數量。

So we're at another one of those junctures with gate-all-around.

因此，我們正處於另一個關口。

And then sorry, HPC and...

然後抱歉，HPC 和...

Test HPC higher or lower...

測試 HPC 更高或更低...

Okay.

好的。

Yes.

是的。

So the -- the growth rate in compute is certainly going to be at the higher end of our mix of submarkets, we think, over the midterm.

因此，我們認為，在中期，計算的增長率肯定會處於我們子市場組合的高端。

So if you think the average market growth rate, we're going to update this in January, but pick a number, is 8%.

因此，如果您認為平均市場增長率，我們將在 1 月份進行更新，但選擇一個數字，即 8%。

We think compute is probably leading that by at least a couple of points.

我們認為計算可能至少領先幾分。

And operator, we have time for one more question, please.

接線員，我們有時間再問一個問題。

Your final question comes from Sidney Ho, Deutsche Bank.

您的最後一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Sidney Ho。

So I have 2 quick ones.

所以我有2個快速的。

The first one is, you talk about supply constraints impacting the IA business.

第一個是，您談到影響 IA 業務的供應限制。

I'm just curious, the gross margin has been pretty good overall, you talk about offering the leverage is one of the reasons.

我只是好奇，整體毛利率還不錯，你說提供槓桿是原因之一。

To the extent that your input cost on logistics and freight cost increase, both in your test and IA business, are you able to pass along some of those costs to your customers?

如果您在物流和貨運成本方面的投入成本增加，無論是在您的測試和 IA 業務中，您是否能夠將其中一些成本轉嫁給您的客戶？

So at this point, we've been managing through it.

所以在這一點上，我們一直在管理它。

So materially, no.

所以在物質上，沒有。

Okay.

好的。

Maybe my follow-up question is, a lot of discussion on 3 nanometers today, but it's really an opportunity in 2023 and beyond.

也許我的後續問題是，今天有很多關於 3 納米的討論，但這確實是 2023 年及以後的機會。

But if you kind of look at next year, I know you're going to update us in January, how does this impact your tester business, if a customer chooses to move from instead of going to 3 nanometers, they go to a different generation of 5 nanometers?

但是如果你看看明年，我知道你會在一月份更新我們，這對你的測試儀業務有什麼影響，如果客戶選擇從 3 納米遷移而不是轉向 3 納米，他們會轉向不同的一代5納米？

What is the tester reuse rate when you compare the 2 nodes between the 3 nanometers and the alternative?

當您比較 3 納米和替代品之間的 2 個節點時，測試儀的重用率是多少？

Yes.

是的。

The tester reuse, people will reuse 5-nanometer generation testers in the 3-nanometer era.

測試儀重用，人們將在3納米時代重用5納米一代的測試儀。

So a new tester is not required.

因此不需要新的測試儀。

And testers tend to have a useful life of a decade or more at a customer, and they can span usability across many, many nodes and many, many generations of devices.

並且測試人員在客戶身上往往有十年或更長時間的使用壽命，並且他們可以跨越許多節點和許多許多代設備的可用性。

So there's nothing in terms of a new tester here that comes with 3-nanometer.

因此，這裡沒有配備 3 納米的新測試儀。

And yes, by and large, it's a 2023 and beyond type story.

是的，總的來說，這是一個 2023 年及以後的故事。

But absent that story, what we've been seeing for the past 10 years in test, since 3-nanometer in 2022 is likely not going to be a huge event because it's likely to be later in the year, people will still move down the complexity curve at 5- and 5-plus nanometer nodes and increase transistor counts and such along that path.

但是如果沒有這個故事，我們在過去 10 年的測試中看到的，因為 2022 年的 3 納米可能不會是一個大事件，因為它可能會在今年晚些時候，人們仍然會向下移動5 納米和 5 納米以上節點處的複雜度曲線，並沿該路徑增加晶體管數量等。

So even absent 3-nanometer, we have an optimistic view of what '22 looks like.

因此，即使沒有 3 納米，我們也對 22 年的樣子持樂觀態度。

We'll probably start out the year similar to how we started out years in the past and at the beginning of the year with some modest growth in the first quarter and then it kind of swings on what's going to happen over the summer, which is our peak quarters, around the refreshes.

我們可能會像過去幾年和年初一樣開始新的一年，在第一季度有一些適度的增長，然後它會在夏天發生的事情上有所波動，這是我們的高峰宿舍，周圍的清涼。

Will those refreshes of silicon be in 3-nanometer, will they be in 5 plus with the traditional normal transistor count growth that we've seen for the past 10 years, those are things that we have to get closer to next year to really understand.

這些矽的更新會是 3 納米嗎，它們會是 5 納米以上嗎？隨著我們在過去 10 年中看到的傳統正常晶體管數量的增長，這些都是我們必須在明年更接近才能真正理解的事情.

Okay, everybody.

好的，大家。

We are out of time.

我們沒時間了。

Thanks so much for joining us today.

非常感謝您今天加入我們。

And those in the queue, I'll get back to you later today.

排隊的人，我會在今天晚些時候回复你。

And again, thanks, everyone, for joining.

再次感謝大家的加入。

Bye-bye.

再見。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you participating.

謝謝你的參與。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連接。