泰瑞達 (TER) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Please stand by. Your meeting is about to begin.

請稍候。會議即將開始。

Ladies and gentlemen, good morning and welcome to the Teradyne fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

女士們、先生們，早安，歡迎參加泰瑞達2025年第四季及全年業績電話會議。（操作說明）

As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Amy McAndrews, Vice President of Corporate Relations for Teradyne.

再次提醒，今天的通話將會被錄音。現在我將把電話交給泰瑞達公司企業關係副總裁艾米‧麥克安德魯斯。

Please go ahead

請繼續

Thank you, Operator.

謝謝接線生。

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our discussion of Teradyne's most recent financial results. I'm joined this morning by our CEO Greg Smith; and our CFO Michelle Turner.

各位早安，歡迎來到我們對泰瑞達最新財務表現的討論。今天早上和我一起接受採訪的有我們的執行長格雷格·史密斯和財務長米歇爾·特納。

Following our opening remarks, we'll provide details of our performance for the fourth quarter and full year of 2025, our outlook for the first quarter of 2026. And our new target earnings model. The press release containing our fourth quarter results was issued last evening.

在開場白之後，我們將詳細介紹 2025 年第四季和全年的業績，以及 2026 年第一季的展望。以及我們新的目標獲利模型。昨晚我們發布了包含第四季度業績的新聞稿。

We are providing slides as well as a copy of this earnings script on the Teradyne Investor website that may be helpful in following the discussions of this call by at the same page after the call ends.

我們在 Teradyne 投資者網站上提供了幻燈片以及本次財報電話會議的講稿副本，會議結束後，您可以在同一頁上繼續查看，以便更好地了解本次電話會議的討論內容。

The matter that we discussed today will include forward-looking statements that involve risks that could cause Teradyne's results to differ materially from management's current expectations. We caution listeners not to place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements included in this presentation.

我們今天討論的事項將包含前瞻性陳述，其中涉及風險，這些風險可能導致泰瑞達的業績與管理層目前的預期有重大差異。我們提醒聽眾不要過度依賴本次演講中包含的任何前瞻性陳述。

We encourage you to review the Safe Harbor statement contained in the slides accompanying this presentation, as well as the risk factors described in our annual report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2024, on file with the SEC.

我們鼓勵您查看本簡報隨附幻燈片中包含的「安全港」聲明，以及我們在截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日的財政年度的 10-K 表格年度報告中描述的風險因素，該報告已提交給美國證券交易委員會。

Additionally, these forward-looking statements are made only as of today. During today's call, we will refer to non-GAAP financial measures. We have posted additional information concerning these non-debt financial measures, including reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures where available on the investor page of our website.

此外，這些前瞻性聲明僅代表截至今日的觀點。在今天的電話會議中，我們將提及非GAAP財務指標。我們已在網站的投資者頁面上發布了有關這些非債務財務指標的更多信息，包括與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的調節表（如有）。

Looking ahead between now and our next earnings call, Teradyne expects to participate in technology or industrial focused industrial conferences hosted by Citi, Susquehanna, Morgan Stanley, and Cantor. Quiet period will begin at the close of business on March 13, 2026.

展望未來，從現在到我們下次財報電話會議期間，泰瑞達預計將參加由花旗集團、Susquehanna、摩根士丹利和Cantor主辦的以技術或工業為重點的行業會議。靜默期將於 2026 年 3 月 13 日營業結束時開始。

Following Greg and Michelle's comments this morning. We'll open up the call for questions. This call is scheduled for one hour.

繼格雷格和米歇爾今天早上發表評論。我們將開放提問環節。本次通話預計持續一小時。

Greg?

格雷格？

Thanks, Amy, and thank you all for joining us today.

謝謝艾米，也謝謝各位今天蒞臨現場。

I'll start off by summarizing our fourth quarter and full year 2025 results and provide some context for our initial view of 2026 and our new target earnings model.

首先，我將總結我們 2025 年第四季和全年業績，並為我們對 2026 年的初步展望和新的目標收益模型提供一些背景資訊。

Teradyne had a strong fourth quarter with 41% sequential revenue growth and more than 100% non-GAAP earnings growth. Both revenue and EPS were above our high guidance as trends we noted previously continued through the end of the year. Semiconductor Test, Product Test and Robotics, all delivered double-digit sequential growth.

Teradyne第四季業績強勁，營收季增41%，非GAAP獲利成長超過100%。營收和每股盈餘都高於我們先前的高預期，我們先前指出的趨勢也延續到了年底。半導體測試、產品測試和機器人業務均實現了兩位數的環比成長。

A striking trend was the increase in AI driven revenue in the second half of 2025. This is obvious in compute and memory. However, the rapid build-out of cloud and edge AI is also driving demand for power management, SLT, HDD, ICT and optical test. This aligns with the themes of AI, verticalization and electrification that we have highlighted in prior calls.

一個顯著的趨勢是，2025 年下半年人工智慧驅動的收入有所成長。這一點在計算和記憶體領域顯而易見。然而，雲端和邊緣 AI 的快速發展也推動了對電源管理、SLT、HDD、ICT 和光測試的需求。這與我們先前在電話會議中強調的人工智慧、垂直化和電氣化主題相一致。

When you roll it up, AI demand drove 40% to 50% of our revenue in Q3. In Q4, AI drove more than 60% of our revenue. Looking forward to Q1 of 2026, we expect that upwards of 70% of our revenue will be driven by AI applications. Now Michelle will go into a lot more detail about the quarterly results and trends, I'd like to give you a little full year color for each of Teradyne's businesses.

總體而言，人工智慧需求在第三季為我們帶來了 40% 到 50% 的收入。第四季度，人工智慧為我們貢獻了超過 60% 的收入。展望 2026 年第一季度，我們預計超過 70% 的營收將由人工智慧應用驅動。現在 Michelle 將更詳細地介紹季度業績和趨勢，我想先給大家簡要介紹一下 Teradyne 旗下各業務的全年情況。

Starting first with the Product Test Group. Overall, we grew revenue 8% in 2025 driven by strength in defense and aerospace. We have successfully integrated Quantifi Photonics into this group, including training the sales team for Lifepoint and Production Board Test on the Quantifi Photonics line. We expect all of our business lines in this group to grow in 2026.

首先從產品測試組開始。整體而言，在國防和航空航太領域強勁成長的推動下，我們預計 2025 年營收將成長 8%。我們已成功將 Quantifi Photonics 整合到該集團中，包括 Lifepoint 和 Production Board Test 的銷售團隊進行 Quantifi Photonics 產品線的培訓。我們預計該集團所有業務線將在 2026 年實現成長。

Turning now to robotics. In 2025, we saw consecutive quarters in growth starting in Q2. As we've discussed previously, we are optimistic about the value-creating opportunity in Physical AI and Advanced Robotics. And our strategy has been to focus the organization on the segments customers technologies with the highest growth potential.

接下來我們來談談機器人技術。2025年，我們看到從第二季開始連續幾季成長。正如我們之前討論過的，我們對物理人工智慧和先進機器人領域的價值創造機會持樂觀態度。我們的策略是將組織重點放在最具成長潛力的客戶和技術領域。

For all of 2025, the Semiconductor Test Group delivered 19% year-on-year growth. SoC test revenue grew 23% year-over-year, driven mainly by networking and VIP Compute. Memory Test revenue was up slightly in a roughly flat memory test market on continued share gains in HBM and DRAM final test.

2025 年全年，半導體測試集團實現了 19% 的年成長。SoC 測試營收年增 23%，主要得益於網路和 VIP 運算業務的推動。在記憶體測試市場整體穩定的情況下，記憶體測試收入略有成長，這主要得益於 HBM 和 DRAM 最終測試市場份額的持續成長。

With strong VIP revenue, we believe that we maintained about 50% market share in the VIP compute market in 2025. This entire segment remains very concentrated with only a few players driving significant ATE purchases. This contributed to revenue lumpiness in 2025 and complicates forecasting VIP share in the future.

憑藉強勁的 VIP 收入，我們相信到 2025 年，我們在 VIP 計算市場將保持約 50% 的市場份額。整個細分市場仍然高度集中，只有少數幾家企業推動了大量的 ATE 採購。這導致 2025 年收入出現波動，並使未來 VIP 份額的預測變得複雜。

Our full year financial results reflect a successful pivot to AI-driven demand in high-performance computing. Back in 2020 and 2021, our business was dominated by Mobile. We were highly exposed to Mobile in SoC, Memory and Wireless test.

我們的全年財務表現反映了我們成功轉型，滿足了人工智慧驅動的高效能運算需求。2020年和2021年，我們的業務以行動端為主。我們在 SoC、記憶體和無線測試方面接觸了大量行動技術。

Now in 2025, Compute is the largest component of our revenue and grew 90% year-over-year. This growth can be attributed to the decisions and investments we have made over the past few years that are now yielding.

到 2025 年，計算業務已成為我們收入的最大組成部分，年增 90%。這一成長可歸功於我們過去幾年所做的決策和投資，這些決策和投資現在正在產生回報。

Our historically strong networking business has been growing because of high-density network connections in AI data centers and the increasing complexity of networking components. The work that we have done to align our product roadmap and customer-facing teams to VIP and merchant computing customers has enabled us to capture valuable design wins.

由於人工智慧資料中心的高密度網路連接以及網路元件日益複雜化，我們歷來強大的網路業務一直在成長。我們透過調整產品路線圖和麵向客戶的團隊，使其與 VIP 和商家運算客戶的需求保持一致，贏得了寶貴的設計訂單。

While we are gaining in Compute and Memory, we believe that diverse revenue mix is Teradyne's long-term strength. Using round numbers, in 2023, only about 10% of our SoC product revenue was in Compute, 50% was in Auto and Industrial and 40% was in Mobile. Now in 2025, nearly 50% was in Compute and Auto/Industrial and Mobile were roughly balanced at a quarter each.

雖然我們在計算和記憶體領域取得了進展，但我們相信多元化的收入結構才是泰瑞達的長期優勢。粗略估計，到 2023 年，我們 SoC 產品收入中只有約 10% 來自運算領域，50% 來自汽車和工業領域，40% 來自行動領域。到 2025 年，近 50% 的份額集中在計算領域，汽車/工業領域和移動領域大致平衡，各佔四分之一。

This balance de-risks our target earnings model. The SoC TAM reached record levels in 2025, nearly 60% larger than 2024. Looking forward, we expect that TAM to grow robustly over the midterm, driven by continued data center build-out and the growth of Edge AI.

這種平衡降低了我們目標獲利模型的風險。2025 年 SoC TAM 達到創紀錄水平，比 2024 年增長近 60%。展望未來，我們預計在中期內，TAM 將強勁成長，這主要得益於資料中心的持續建設和邊緣人工智慧的成長。

Predicting this growth rate from year-to-year is going to be difficult because of the high concentration and less predictable product ramps. One big socket sliding across your boundaries could have a significant positive or negative effect on year-to-year growth.

由於市場集中度高且產品產能爬坡難以預測，因此很難預測每年的成長率。一個大型插座滑入你的邊界可能會對年度成長產生重大的正面或負面影響。

Although this uncertainty makes it challenging to predict the 2026 SoC TAM we are expecting robust year-on-year TAM growth. At a segment level, we expect Compute to grow significantly from a very high base driven by AI.

儘管這種不確定性使得預測 2026 年 SoC TAM 變得困難，但我們預計 TAM 將實現強勁的年成長。從細分市場來看，我們預計在人工智慧的驅動下，運算業務將在非常高的基數上顯著成長。

We expect to see moderate recovery in Auto/Industrial, but we are uncertain about the Mobile TAM. Although we are expecting to see a significant jump in device complexity, there are questions about unit volume, product mix and capital efficiency improvements. All in all, we believe that we are positioned to gain share in the single digits in SoC test and a significantly larger market.

我們預計汽車/工業領域將溫和復甦，但我們對移動領域的潛在市場規模尚不確定。儘管我們預期設備複雜性將大幅提升，但單位產量、產品組合和資本效率的提高仍有疑問。總而言之，我們相信我們有能力在 SoC 測試領域獲得個位數的市場份額，並在更大的市場中佔據一席之地。

Now shifting gears to Memory. In 2025, the overall Memory TAM was down about 4% from 2024, and we were able to gain a little share. A bright spot in the test, the memory test market was AI Compute demand for both HBM and DRAM.

現在轉入記憶領域。2025 年，整體記憶體 TAM 比 2024 年下降了約 4%，我們得以獲得一些市場份額。測試中，記憶體測試市場的一大亮點是人工智慧運算對 HBM 和 DRAM 的需求。

Again, it is useful to take a longer-term look at the changes in memory test. Back in 2020 and 2021, the memory test market was split more or less evenly between flash and DRAM. In 2025, DRAM and HBM comprise nearly 90% of the memory TAM, a trend we expect to continue into 2026.

再次強調，對記憶測試的變化進行長期觀察是有益的。2020 年和 2021 年，記憶體測試市場大致由快閃記憶體和 DRAM 平分秋色。到 2025 年，DRAM 和 HBM 將佔記憶體 TAM 的近 90%，我們預計這一趨勢將持續到 2026 年。

Overall, we expect a resurgent memory market in 2026 with low double-digit TAM growth over 2025 driven by continued strength in HBM and DRAM, and we expect to continue our incremental share gains. Our IST business delivered over 50% growth from 2024 to 2025.

總體而言，我們預計 2026 年記憶體市場將復甦，在 HBM 和 DRAM 持續強勁成長的推動下，2025 年的 TAM 將實現兩位數的低成長，我們預計將繼續逐步擴大市場份額。我們的IST業務在2024年至2025年間實現了超過50%的成長。

Historically, IST has had very high segment and customer concentration. In 2024 and before, we served the HDD and mobile SLT markets, and our revenue was mostly driven by a large single customer in each segment.

從歷史上看，IST 的細分市場和客戶集中度非常高。2024 年及之前，我們服務於 HDD 和行動 SLT 市場，我們的收入主要來自每個細分市場中的一個大客戶。

In 2025, this began to change. We won a new customer in mobile SLT in 2024, and that ramped strongly in 2025. Also in 2025, we entered compute SLT and won business from two customers in that segment. Finally, in late 2025, we received orders from a new customer in HDD, which will be ramping in 2026.

2025年，這種情況開始改變。我們在 2024 年贏得了行動 SLT 領域的新客戶，並且在 2025 年實現了強勁成長。同樣在 2025 年，我們進入了計算 SLT 領域，並贏得了該領域兩家客戶的業務。最後，在 2025 年底，我們收到了 HDD 新客戶的訂單，將於 2026 年開始量產。

All of this is setting us up for continued strong revenue growth from IST in 2026 and beyond. Michelle will be going over our target earnings model in some detail. I'd like to comment on the underlying drivers of that model. In looking at the future, we had to answer two questions. The first question is whether the markets we are in are poised for growth.

所有這些都為IST在2026年及以後持續強勁的營收成長奠定了基礎。米歇爾將詳細講解我們的目標報酬模型。我想就該模式的根本驅動因素發表一些看法。展望未來，我們必須回答兩個問題。第一個問題是，我們所處的市場是否具備成長的條件。

In our mind, the answer to that is unequivocally true. Right now, the prime mover of the market is AI Data Center. Our product lines cover this market from beginning to end from testing compute devices to complete server trays all the way to robot-assisted operations in AI Data Centers.

在我們看來，答案毫無疑問是正確的。目前，人工智慧資料中心是市場的主要驅動力。我們的產品線涵蓋了該市場的方方面面，從測試計算設備到完整的伺服器托架，再到人工智慧資料中心中的機器人輔助操作。

Looking beyond the AI Data Center segments of the market where Teradyne has high share are poised for a recovery. Auto/Industrial will have long-term growth tied to the transition to AI, EVs and 800-volt data center power. Mobile is positioned for steep complexity increases as the compute power required to run inference on LLMs is crammed into phones.

除了泰瑞達佔據較高市場份額的人工智慧資料中心市場之外，其他細分市場也有望復甦。汽車/工業領域的長期成長將與人工智慧、電動車和 800 伏特資料中心電力轉型密切相關。隨著運行 LLM 推理所需的運算能力被塞進手機中，行動裝置將面臨複雜性急劇增加的局面。

Physical AI is already expanding the applications of Advanced Robotics, and we believe that trend will continue to strengthen. The second question is whether we're positioned to gain share in the markets where we play.

物理人工智慧已經拓展了先進機器人技術的應用範圍，我們相信這一趨勢將會持續加強。第二個問題是，我們是否具備在所涉足的市場中獲得份額的條件。

Again, I think the evidence from 2025 is clear. We are. We have gained share in HBM and DRAM. We have maintained high share in networking -- we have ramped significant new VIP sockets. We have a leadership position in silicon photonics, and we are in play for a share of merchant GPU.

再次強調，我認為2025年的證據是明確的。我們是。我們在HBM和DRAM領域都獲得了市場份額。我們在網路領域保持了較高的市場份額——我們大幅增加了新的 VIP 插槽。我們在矽光子學領域處於領先地位，並且我們正在努力爭取在商用GPU市場中佔有一席之地。

We have won new segments and customers in our IST Group in both storage test and System Level Test of compute devices, but Teradyne's exposure to the growing AI data center market extends beyond device test. Our production board test business tests the server trays that devices go into. Our Quantify Photonics instruments test silicon photonics from device to rack.

我們在 IST 集團的儲存測試和計算設備的系統級測試方面都贏得了新的細分市場和客戶，但泰瑞達在不斷增長的 AI 資料中心市場的業務拓展遠不止於設備測試。我們的生產板測試業務是對設備安裝的伺服器托架進行測試。我們的 Quantify Photonics 儀器可對矽光子裝置進行從裝置到機架的全面測試。

In alignment with our strategy to go from wafer to data center, last Thursday, Teradyne announced an agreement with Multi-Lane to form a joint venture. Multi-Lane is a global leader in High-Speed I/O and data center interconnect test solutions. This joint venture will be called Multi-Lane test products and is being formed to serve the growing AI data center demand.

為了配合我們從晶圓到資料中心的策略，泰瑞達公司上週四宣布與 Multi-Lane 達成協議，成立一家合資企業。Multi-Lane 是高速 I/O 和資料中心互連測試解決方案的全球領導者。這家合資企業將被稱為 Multi-Lane 測試產品公司，其成立是為了滿足日益增長的人工智慧資料中心需求。

Upon the close of this transaction, which we expect in the first half of this year, we will be the majority owner of the JV and Multi-Lane will maintain a minority position. In robotics, we have built a world class platform for physical AI applications that is being applied in multiple industry verticals, and we have embedded AI capabilities into our AMR products.

預計交易將於今年上半年完成，屆時我們將成為合資企業的控股股東，而 Multi-Lane 將保留少數股權。在機器人領域，我們已經建立了一個世界級的實體人工智慧應用平台，該平台正在多個行業垂直領域中得到應用，我們已經將人工智慧功能嵌入到我們的 AMR 產品中。

Most importantly, we have begun to ramp an important worldwide AI-driven application in e-commerce. So to sum up, Teradyne is positioned to deliver better-than-market growth in markets that are going to be growing robustly over the next few years. We foresee a future where the ATE TAM will be $12 billion to $14 billion, up from about $9 billion in 2025. In that market, our long-term model illustrates our expectation that Teradyne would deliver nearly 2 times 2025's revenue and 2.5 times the earnings per share.

最重要的是，我們已經開始在全球大力推廣一款重要的AI驅動型電子商務應用。總而言之，泰瑞達已做好準備，在未來幾年將強勁成長的市場中實現優於市場平均的成長。我們預計未來 ATE TAM 將從 2025 年的約 90 億美元增至 120 億美元至 140 億美元。在該市場中，我們的長期模型表明，我們預期泰瑞達公司到 2025 年的營收將達到 2 倍，每股盈餘將達到 2.5 倍。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Michelle Turner, our Chief Financial Officer, and welcome her to her very first Teradyne earnings call. Michelle, over to you earnings call.

接下來，我將把電話交給我們的財務長米歇爾‧特納，歡迎她參加她首次主持的泰瑞達財報電話會議。米歇爾，接下來由你主持財報電話會議。

Michelle, over to you.

米歇爾，該你了。

Thank you, Greg, and good morning, everyone. I'm thrilled to have joined the Teradyne team and look forward to the value-creating opportunities ahead. Today, I will cover our fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results, then I will share our Q1 2026 outlook. And then finally, I will discuss our new target earnings model. Now on to Q4.

謝謝你，格雷格，大家早安。我很高興加入泰瑞達團隊，並期待未來創造價值的機會。今天，我將介紹我們 2025 年第四季和全年的財務業績，然後我將分享我們 2026 年第一季的展望。最後，我將討論我們新的目標獲利模型。現在進入第四季。

Fourth quarter sales were $1.83 billion with non-GAAP EPS of $1.80, both above the high end of our guidance range. Fourth quarter sales were the highest revenue quarter of 2025 and our second highest quarter in history, only $3 million below our record during the mobile boom of 2021.

第四季銷售額為 18.3 億美元，非 GAAP 每股收益為 1.80 美元，均高於我們預期範圍的上限。第四季銷售額是 2025 年收入最高的季度，也是我們歷史上收入第二高的季度，僅比 2021 年行動通訊繁榮時期創下的紀錄少了 300 萬美元。

Semi Test revenue was $883 million, fueled by AI compute and memory demand. Within Semi Test, SoC revenue was $647 million, up 47% quarter-on-quarter. And Memory revenue was $206 million, up 61% quarter-on-quarter, marking a record sales quarter for our memory business. The Product Test Group at $110 million grew double digits sequentially and year-on-year, driven by strong defense and aerospace demand.

受人工智慧運算和記憶體需求的推動，Semi Test 的營收為 8.83 億美元。在半導體測試領域，SoC 營收為 6.47 億美元，季增 47%。記憶體業務收入為 2.06 億美元，季增 61%，創下記憶體業務季度銷售紀錄。受強勁的國防和航空航天需求推動，產品測試集團的收入達到 1.1 億美元，環比和同比均實現了兩位數增長。

Robotics revenue of $89 million grew for the third consecutive quarter and was up 19% from Q3. In Q4, greater than 5% of our robotics revenue was driven by a large e-commerce customer. Moving on to bottom line. Non-GAAP gross margins were 57.2%, aligned with our guidance range, driven by Semi Test AI demand strength, offset primarily by lower Product Test Group margins and robotics mix and an inventory write-down on legacy products.

機器人業務收入連續第三個季度成長，達到 8,900 萬美元，比第三季成長 19%。第四季度，我們機器人業務收入的 5% 以上來自一家大型電子商務客戶。接下來是結論部分。非GAAP毛利率為57.2%，與我們的預期範圍一致，主要得益於半導體測試人工智慧需求的強勁增長，但被產品測試組毛利率和機器人產品組合的下降以及傳統產品的庫存減值所抵消。

Non-GAAP operating expenses were $306 million, and the non-GAAP operating profit rate was 29% in the quarter. Non-GAAP operating profit dollars in the quarter roughly doubled to $314 million in comparison to both prior quarter and prior year. We generated $219 million in free cash flow and returned $204 million to our shareholders through share repurchases and dividends.

本季非GAAP營業費用為3.06億美元，非GAAP營業利益率為29%。本季非GAAP營業利潤約3.14億美元，比上一季及去年同期均翻了一番。我們產生了 2.19 億美元的自由現金流，並透過股票回購和分紅向股東返還了 2.04 億美元。

Our tax rate for the quarter, excluding discrete items, was 10.6% and 10.3% on a non-GAAP and GAAP basis, respectively. Overall, fourth quarter results were strong across the portfolio. Now turning to full year results. Our revenue was $3.2 billion, up 13% from prior year. At the beginning of the year, our SoC revenue was equally divided across our major end markets of compute, mobility and auto and industrial.

本季度，不計特殊項目，我們的稅率以非GAAP準則計算為10.6%，依GAAP準則計算為10.3%。整體而言，第四季各業務板塊業績表現強勁。現在來看全年業績。我們的收入為32億美元，比上年增長13%。年初時，我們的 SoC 收入在計算、移動、汽車和工業等主要終端市場之間平均分配。

Exiting the year, fueled by strong AI-driven demand, compute is now the largest part of our SoC portfolio, eclipsing our historical stronghold of mobile. From an overall portfolio perspective, Semi test now represents close to 80% of our enterprise sales, an increase from the low 70%s over the last few years.

年底，在強勁的人工智慧驅動需求推動下，運算已成為我們 SoC 產品組合中最大的部分，超越了我們以往在行動領域的強勢地位。從整體產品組合的角度來看，半自動測試目前占我們企業銷售額的近 80%，比過去幾年的 70% 左右有所成長。

From a customer perspective, I'd like to remind you about a characteristic of our business model. We typically have a specifying customer who chooses platforms and drives demand and a purchasing customer who actually places the order and receives the equipment. In different cases, the specifying and purchasing customers have more influence in the purchase decision.

從客戶的角度來看，我想提醒您我們商業模式的一個特徵。我們通常會有一個指定客戶，他選擇平台並推動需求；還有一個採購客戶，他實際下訂單並接收設備。在不同的情況下，指定客戶和採購客戶對購買決策的影響力更大。

In 2025, we had two greater than 10% specifying customers and one greater than 10% purchasing customer. Gross margin for the year was 58.3%, OpEx was $1.2 billion and operating profit was 22%. Non GAAP EPS was $3.96. We generated $450 million in free cash flow and returned $785 million or 174% of free cash flow to our shareholders through share repurchases and dividends.

2025年，我們有兩位指定客戶佔比超過10%，還有一位採購客戶佔超過10%。該年度毛利率為 58.3%，營運支出為 12 億美元，營業利益為 22%。非GAAP每股收益為3.96美元。我們產生了4.5億美元的自由現金流，並透過股票回購和分紅向股東返還了7.85億美元，即自由現金流的174%。

We ended 2025 with $448 million of cash and marketable securities. Our tax rate for the full year, excluding discrete items, was 12.8% and 12.6% on a non-GAAP and GAAP basis, respectively. Now to our outlook for Q1. Since our October call, we've continued to see demand across our group strengthen. Q1 sales are expected to be between $1.15 billion and $1.25 billion, which would be a new quarterly record, driven by all things AI. The midpoint of this revenue range is 11% growth from an already strong Q4 and 75% growth from the same period in 2025.

截至 2025 年底，我們擁有 4.48 億美元的現金和有價證券。除特殊項目外，我們全年的稅率按非公認會計準則和公認會計準則計算分別為 12.8% 和 12.6%。接下來我們展望一下第一季的情況。自從我們10月的電話會議以來，我們集團各部門的需求持續增強。預計第一季銷售額將在 11.5 億美元至 12.5 億美元之間，這將創下新的季度紀錄，這主要得益於人工智慧的蓬勃發展。該營收範圍的中點是：比已經表現強勁的第四季成長 11%，比 2025 年同期成長 75%。

Non-GAAP EPS is in the range of $1.89 to $2.25 on 158 million diluted shares. From a margin perspective, we expect first quarter gross margins to be in the range of 58.5% to 59.5%, up 180 basis points at the midpoint of the guidance quarter-over-quarter. OpEx is expected to increase 6% from Q4 and run at approximately 26% to 28% of first quarter sales.

非GAAP每股盈餘在1.89美元至2.25美元之間，稀釋後股數為1.58億股。從利潤率的角度來看，我們預計第一季毛利率將在 58.5% 至 59.5% 之間，比上一季預期中位數高出 180 個基點。預計營運支出將比第四季成長 6%，並達到第一季銷售額的 26% 至 28%。

The non-GAAP operating profit rate at the midpoint of our first quarter guidance is 32% -- with the strong start to the year, I want to take a minute to talk about our historical sales patterns and how this is a classic example of history is not necessarily indicative of the future. Many of you who have been following us for a while know historically, we've experienced what we call lumpy Q2 or Q3 revenue trends tied to Mobile demand and product life cycles.

我們第一季業績指引中點的非GAAP營業利潤率為32%——鑑於今年開局強勁，我想花點時間談談我們過去的銷售模式，以及這如何成為一個典型的例子，說明歷史並不一定能預示未來。許多一直關注我們的人都知道，從歷史數據來看，我們經常會遇到與行動需求和產品生命週期相關的第二季或第三季收入波動。

From 2020 to 2024, we consistently delivered the majority of our sales in second and third quarter. 2025 broke this pattern. Q4 represented our largest quarter of the year. As our Compute and Memory portfolios continue to grow, our revenue will continue to be lumpy, yet follow a less predictable pattern. While 2025 sales were 40% in the first half and 60% in the second half, based on what we know today, we expect 2026 sales to be at the inverse.

從2020年到2024年，我們的大部分銷售額都集中在第二季和第三季。 2025年打破了這項規律。第四季是我們全年業績最好的一個季度。隨著我們的計算和記憶體產品組合不斷增長，我們的收入將繼續呈現波動性，但其模式將變得難以預測。雖然 2025 年上半年的銷售額佔比為 40%，下半年佔比為 60%，但根據我們目前所掌握的信息，我們預計 2026 年的銷售額將相反。

Before I walk through our new target earnings model, a few comments on our recently announced MultiLane joint venture. As Greg mentioned, we expect to close the joint venture in Q2 26. For your modeling purposes, the results of this business will be consolidated into the results of our Product Test Group, and our EPS will reflect our share of the results of this business.

在詳細介紹我們新的目標獲利模型之前，先對我們最近宣布的 MultiLane 合資企業做一些說明。正如格雷格所提到的，我們預計將在2026年第二季完成合資企業的交割。為了便於建模，該業務的業績將併入我們的產品測試集團的業績，我們的每股收益將反映我們在該業務業績中所佔的份額。

We will disclose the net income attributable to the noncontrolling interest as a new line item on our income statement. We expect this deal to be accretive in 2026 with a de minimis impact to EPS. Now moving on to our new target earnings model.

我們將把歸屬於少數股東權益的淨利作為新的項目列入損益表。我們預計這項交易將在 2026 年帶來收益成長，對每股盈餘的影響微乎其微。接下來我們來看看新的目標收益模型。

Rather than incurring our earnings model to a specific future year as we've done historically, this year, we are framing it around what our P&L looks like at an ATE TAM of $12 billion to $14 billion, which we believe is achievable within this new term. This approach better reflects the inherent lumpiness both compute and memory demand, where program timing and customer buying patterns can shift revenue across the quarter and year bounders.

與以往將獲利模式限定於未來某一年的做法不同，今年我們將其設定為在 ATE TAM 為 120 億至 140 億美元的情況下，我們的損益表會是什麼樣子，我們相信在新任期內這是可以實現的。這種方法更好地反映了計算和記憶體需求的固有波動性，其中程式時間和客戶購買模式可能會使季度和年度收入偏移。

So at an ATE TAM of $12 billion to $14 billion, our target model assumes roughly $6 billion of revenue. At this scale, we expect gross margins between 59% and 61%, a point higher at the high end versus our prior model. We anticipate OpEx of 27% to 29% of revenue, reflecting operating leverage and the benefits of scale.

因此，在 ATE TAM 為 120 億美元至 140 億美元的情況下，我們的目標模型假設收入約為 60 億美元。在這個規模下，我們預期毛利率在 59% 到 61% 之間，比我們之前的模型高出一個百分點。我們預計營運支出佔收入的 27% 至 29%，這反映了營運槓桿和規模效益。

This results in an operating profit of 30% to 34% and non-GAAP EPS of $9.50 to $11. We expect this growth over the midterm to be proportional across each of our groups. From a SemiTest group perspective, we expect to grow our revenue greater than the overall ATE market growth rate, reflecting our expectations of share gains, which is driven by continued strength in AI compute and Memory as well as anticipated recovery in Auto and Industrial and mobile.

這將帶來 30% 至 34% 的營業利潤率和非 GAAP 每股收益 9.50 至 11 美元。我們預期中期各組的成長比例將保持一致。從 SemiTest 集團的角度來看，我們預計我們的營收成長將超過 ATE 市場的整體成長率，這反映了我們對市場佔有率成長的預期，而市場佔有率的成長將受到 AI 運算和記憶體領域持續強勁成長以及汽車、工業和行動領域預期復甦的推動。

Our Mobile assumptions reflect recovery but not a return to the 2021 peak. We also expect growth in IST tied to wins in SLT for compute as well as HDD from a Product Test Group perspective, we expect growth across the portfolio tied to Compute, Defense, Photonics, High-Speed Internet Data and Data Centers. From a robotics group perspective, we expect growth tied to physical AI expanding SAM, reducing implementation complexity and continued persistent labor shortages.

我們對行動端的預測反映了復甦，但並未恢復到 2021 年的高峰。我們也預計，隨著 SLT 在計算和 HDD 領域的成功，IST 將會成長。從產品測試組的角度來看，我們預計整個產品組合，包括運算、國防、光子學、高速互聯網數據和數據中心，都將實現成長。從機器人集團的角度來看，我們預計成長將與實體人工智慧擴大SAM、降低實施複雜性以及持續存在的勞動力短缺有關。

Our strategic pivot towards large accounts, along with a sharper focus on e-commerce, logistics, semiconductor and electronic verticals is expected to further support growth. This new target earnings model is reflective of our conviction in the growth potential of the ATE TAM driven by all things AI even at today's unprecedented levels.

我們向大客戶進行策略調整，同時更加專注於電子商務、物流、半導體和電子垂直行業，預計將進一步支持成長。這個新的目標獲利模型反映了我們對人工智慧驅動下的 ATE TAM 成長潛力的信心，即使在當今前所未有的水平上也是如此。

Moving from a date-driven earnings model to an evergreen one reflects this conviction while also recognizing a lack of precision in terms of which year this comes to fruition. Now turning to capital allocation. Our strategy remains consistent to maintain cash reserves that enable us to run the business and have dry powder for M&A.

從以日期為導向的收益模型轉向常青模型，既體現了這種信念，也承認了在哪一年實現這一目標方面缺乏精確性。現在來談談資本配置。我們的策略始終如一，即保持現金儲備，以便我們能夠經營業務並為併購留有資金。

For reference, from 2015 to 2025, we returned over $5.4 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends, which is roughly 100% of free cash flow. We will remain opportunistic around value-creating inorganic opportunities as well as share buybacks. So summing up, exiting 2025, we are encouraged by the strength of the business.

作為參考，從 2015 年到 2025 年，我們透過股票回購和分紅向股東返還了超過 54 億美元，這大約相當於自由現金流的 100%。我們將繼續抓住機會，尋求創造價值的非有機成長機會以及股票回購。綜上所述，展望 2025 年，我們對公司的強勁發展動能感到鼓舞。

Our overall company revenues grew 13% year-on-year, and our SoC and memory contributed 17% year-over-year, helping to achieve a 23% increase in our EPS to $3.96. We are making strategic investments to drive competitive advantages and gain market share in the Semi Test and Product test groups. We remain focused on large accounts and attractive verticals to drive sustainable growth in robotics. We enter 2026 feeling good about the year ahead.

公司整體營收年增13%，其中SoC和記憶體業務年增17%，推動每股收益成長23%至3.96美元。我們正在進行策略性投資，以增強競爭優勢，並在半導體測試和產品測試領域擴大市場份額。我們將繼續專注於大客戶和有吸引力的垂直領域，以推動機器人技術的可持續成長。我們對即將到來的一年充滿信心，並由此邁入2026年。

With that, I'll turn the call back to the operator for questions.

這樣，我就把電話轉回接線生，回答大家的問題。

Operator?

操作員？

Thank you. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝。（操作說明）

C.J. Muse, Cantor Fitzgerald.

C.J. Muse，坎托爾·菲茨杰拉德。

Thank you for taking the question. I guess, wanted to focus near term and then a longer-term question. On the near term, can you kind of help us understand how to better think about calendar '26. I heard you talk about kind of the inverse of that 58%, 42% we saw in calendar '25, but curious how to think about perhaps the overall revenue new growth rate or thinking about June so we can size it. Will you gest above the high end of kind of the revenue target range of 25%? Or any help would be great.

感謝您回答這個問題。我想，我首先想關注近期問題，然後再討論一個長期問題。短期內，您能否幫助我們更理解如何看待2026年曆？我聽你說過，這與我們在 2025 年看到的 58% 和 42% 的增長率有點相反，但我很好奇如何看待整體收入的新增長率，或者考慮一下 6 月份的情況，以便我們能夠對其進行估算。你們的營收目標能否超過25%的上限？任何幫助都將不勝感激。

Hi, good morning, CJ. Thanks for the question.

你好，早安，CJ。謝謝你的提問。

This is Michelle. So I'll give some color commentary. I know this is going to be aventuous to everyone who's listening in. So a couple of things I would reference in terms of this year versus past years. One, we are entering the year with a healthy backlog. And so we're excited by that. That's a positive when you think about our positioning for 2026. So we have better fidelity than we did say the same period last year. And then the other thing I would highlight is we typically for those that follow the Teradyne story, you know we talk about having my 13 weeks of demand kind of insights from a forecast perspective.

這是米歇爾。接下來我將進行一些評論。我知道這對所有收聽的人來說都將是一次冒險。所以，我想就今年與往年相比的幾點進行說明。第一，我們今年的訂單積壓情況良好。所以，我們對此感到很興奮。從我們2026年的定位來看，這是一個正面的訊號。所以，與去年同期相比，我們的保真度有所提升。另外，我想強調的是，對於關注泰瑞達發展歷程的人來說，我們通常會談到從預測的角度出發，提供未來 13 週的需求洞察。

I would say we have better insights this year to first half. And so that's a positive from an overall 2026 perspective. I do want to balance this, however, with kind of what I talked about in my opening remarks and really emphasize the lumpiness of this new sales pattern. So I want to caution us against kind of a linearity trend assumptions with the recognition that we could see things move between quarters and between years as we recognize some of these ordering patterns in this kind of new AI infrastructure build-out environment.

我認為我們對今年上半年的情況有了更清晰的認識。所以從2026年的整體情況來看，這是一個正面的訊號。不過，我想用我在開場白中提到的內容來平衡一下，並專注於這種新銷售模式的不穩定性。因此，我想提醒大家不要抱持線性趨勢的假設，因為我們可能會看到，在這種新的人工智慧基礎設施建設環​​境中，隨著一些排序模式的出現，事物在不同季度和不同年份之間可能會改變。

And C.J., I'll add one thought here. This is Greg. Because the run rate that we have in Q1 we have a fair amount of strength in Q1. We don't have great visibility into the second half. So we're a little bit cautious that we don't want people to sort of take that and run with it for the full year. We expect that we're in kind of a 2-, 3-quarter surge that may lead to a shorter period of digestion afterwards.

C.J.，我再補充一點。這是格雷格。因為我們在第一季的運作率很高，所以我們在第一季擁有相當強的實力。我們對下半季的情況不太清楚。所以我們有點謹慎，不希望有人把這個說法當作現實，並且沿用一整年。我們預計我們將經歷一個持續兩到三個季度的成長期，之後可能會出現較短的消化期。

Great. Very helpful.

偉大的。很有幫助。

And then, Greg, longer-term question. implicit in your new target model is a vision for your share of AAT to grow from about 25% to 46%. So would love to hear kind of your high-level thoughts on what the key drivers are behind that?

那麼，格雷格，還有一個更長遠的問題。你的新目標模型中隱含著一個願景，就是你希望在AAT的份額從大約25%成長到46%。所以，我很想聽聽您對這背後關鍵驅動因素的看法？

Right now, in the -- our model, our sort of $12 billion to $14 billion TAM model with us at $6 billion. That actually is moderated from that 46% level just a little bit. And that reflects, in that model, we expect that the compute TAM is going to continue to grow. We're going to be gaining share in the compute space, but we're coming from a much lower share position. So I think we are -- like thinking about it from a long-term model perspective, we expect to gain share in compute.

目前，在我們的模型中，我們的TAM模型大約為120億至140億美元，而我們本身規模為60億美元。實際上，這個數字比 46% 的水平略有下降。而這反映出，在該模型中，我們預期計算 TAM 將持續成長。我們將在計算領域獲得更大的份額，但我們目前的份額要低得多。所以我認為，從長遠模型的角度來看，我們期望在計算領域中獲得份額。

We expect the mobile market to probably get to maybe 1.5 times the size that it is now, and we've maintained the share that we have auto and industrial, probably the same kind of proportional gain in terms of the TAM size and we'd maintained. And then in memory, it's going to have incremental growth through this midterm. And right now, we feel like if you look back a few years, there were multiple parts of the memory market where we were not even present.

我們預計行動市場規模可能會達到現在的 1.5 倍，並且我們保持了在汽車和工業領域的市場份額，就 TAM 規模而言，可能會有類似的比例增長，而且我們也保持了這一比例。然後，在記憶體方面，它將在中期考試期間逐步增長。而現在，我們感覺，如果你回顧幾年前，你會發現記憶體市場的許多領域我們甚至沒有涉足。

Now we feel like we are in most of the segments for most of the customers, and so we are in a position to sort of split the share and ride the trends in the markets.

現在我們感覺我們已經涵蓋了大多數客戶的大部分細分市場，因此我們有能力瓜分市場份額，並順應市場趨勢。

Timothy Arcuri, UBS

瑞銀集團的提摩西·阿庫裡

Thanks. Greg, I wanted to come at the last question from a different angle. So if I take your new model, it seems -- if I take what you've already said for Robotics, how much it will grow, and I grow systems test at a pretty good clip, product test at a good clip. It seems to me like the SemiTest share only gets back to the like high-series which is really only where it was from 2022 to 2025.

謝謝。格雷格，我想從另一個角度來回答最後一個問題。所以，如果我採用你的新模型，似乎——如果我採用你已經對機器人技術所說的增長幅度，並且我以相當快的速度進行系統測試，以相當快的速度進行產品測試。在我看來，SemiTest 的股價似乎只能回到高位，也就是 2022 年至 2025 年的水準。

So it doesn't really seem to imply that much share gain? I mean it does off of where it was in 2025 because it was sub-30, but it doesn't seem to imply very much share from where it was in 2022 to 2024. So maybe you can provide a little more color, like is that calculation wrong? Is the SemiTest number assumed having share higher than that? Because it seems like it's not that much higher than it's been in the past few years.

所以這似乎不代表市佔率會有太大成長？我的意思是，它確實比 2025 年的情況要好，因為當時低於 30%，但從 2022 年到 2024 年來看，似乎並沒有太大的份額增長。所以，您能否提供更多信息，例如，這個計算有誤嗎？SemiTest的份額是否被認為高於這個數字？因為看起來它並沒有比過去幾年高出多少。

I think in order to get to the numbers that you have that you probably have slightly more aggressive growth expectations for the robotics and the product test group. So we're kind of thinking across this midterm that the proportion -- sort of the 80-10-10 proportions are going to be roughly the same. And so -- and by my math, we are in the low 40s for share in ATE. And remember that like the IST stuff is in our revenue, but it's not in the ATE TAM. That's in a separate segment

我認為，為了達到你所擁有的數字，你可能對機器人和產品測試組的成長預期要稍微激進一些。所以我們認為，在這次期中考中，80-10-10 的比例大致上會維持不變。因此——根據我的計算，我們在 ATE 中的份額在 40% 左右。請記住，IST 相關內容計入了我們的收入，但並未計入 ATE TAM。那屬於另一個部分。

Yeah. Okay. All right. And then can you break either your -- Michelle, can you break down the SoC TAM in 2025, the $7.2 billion. Can you break it down between compute, mobile, auto? And maybe also, you've talked before about how large the VIP TAM is within compute. Can you give us a sense of how big that was in 2025?

是的。好的。好的。那麼，米歇爾，你能詳細分析一下 SoC TAM 的 2025 年 72 億美元嗎？你能把它細分為電腦、行動裝置和汽車嗎？而且，您可能之前也談到 VIP TAM 在運算領域有多麼龐大。你能大概描述一下到 2025 年，這個數字有多大嗎？

So in 2025, the TAM broke down roughly -- we think it's -- and this is subject to us sort of totaling up the final numbers, which will come in over the next couple of months from third-party sources. But our expectation was that compute was in the neighborhood of $5 billion for the year. Mobility in about $1 billion; auto industrial just under $1 billion and service was in the $700 million range. For memory, overall, we think that the TAM was just under $1.4 billion and $1.2 billion of that was DRAM. The rest was flash.

因此，2025 年的 TAM 大致細分為——我們認為是——這取決於我們匯總最終數據，這些數據將在未來幾個月內從第三方來源獲得。但我們預計，當年的計算支出將在 50 億美元左右。旅遊領域約10億美元；汽車工業略低於10億美元；服務業約7億美元。就記憶體而言，我們認為整體市場規模略低於 14 億美元，其中 12 億美元是 DRAM。其餘的都是閃光燈。

And Greg, of the compute portion, how much is VIP, sorry?

格雷格，關於計算部分，VIP費用是多少？不好意思。

I think just over 600.

我想應該是600多一點。

Mehdi Hosseini, SIG.

Mehdi Hosseini，SIG。

Yes, sir, thanks for taking questions. Just one additional follow-up on the SoC TAM. Greg, you highlighted market share of around 50% for custom ASIC back in 2025. How do you see that evolving, especially given the increased new products coming out? It is my expectation that the concentration is actually going to get broaden out and more custom ASIC coming out? And would that enable you to increase market share above 50%? And I have a follow-up.

是的，先生，謝謝您回答問題。關於 SoC TAM，還有一點後續問題。Greg，你曾指出，到 2025 年，客製化 ASIC 的市佔率將達到 50% 左右。您認為這種情況會如何發展，尤其是在新產品不斷出現的情況下？我預計，未來的發展方向將會更加多元化，並且會有更多客製化的ASIC晶片問世？這樣能否讓你的市佔率超過 50%？我還有一個後續問題。

Sure. So yeah, so in 2025, we think share was roughly 50% of VIP compute. When you look into the future, we expect that, that share split is going to -- it's -- the thing about this space is that no share is safe. We are challenging for sockets that we don't have. We're being challenged for sockets that we do have.

當然。所以，我們認為到 2025 年，VIP 計算的份額將達到約 50%。展望未來，我們預計，股票分割將會－在這個領域，沒有哪隻股票是絕對安全的。我們正在爭取我們根本沒有的插座。我們現在面臨的挑戰是，我們現有的插座數量不足。

And that's true for stuff that is in high volume right now and programs that have yet to ramp. The thing that I'm a little bit cautious in terms of trying to size the TAM for ASIC programs that are not yet in volume because what tends to happen is that the hyper scalers will benchmark the performance of their own ASICs against what they can get commercially, and they will only take their ASICs to full volume if they see an advantage in like tokens per watt or what other metric they are trying to focus on.

對於目前銷售量很高的產品和尚未全面鋪開的產品來說，情況都是如此。對於尚未量產的 ASIC 項目，我在估算其潛在市場規模時會比較謹慎，因為通常情況下，超大規模數據中心運營商會將自家 ASIC 的性能與市面上可獲得的 ASIC 進行比較，只有當他們看到在每瓦代幣數或其他他們關注的指標方面具有優勢時，才將自家 ASIC 推向全面量產。

So I think long term, it's likely that we'll be able to maintain 50%, but I am expecting that this is going to be a really noisy number, especially at the quarter-by-quarter level, but even yearly, depending on when different ramps happen, it's going to slosh the share around a fair amount.

所以我認為從長遠來看，我們很可能能夠保持 50% 的份額，但我預計這將是一個波動很大的數字，尤其是在季度層面，即使是按年來看，根據不同增長速度的提升時間，份額也會有相當大的波動。

Okay. And then for the entire team. As we look at $6 billion near-term revenue target, given your revised ATE market, it was only 6, 9 months ago that we were contemplating if your revenues would increase above a couple of billion. And now there's a new target. And what I wanted to figure out, what the question is, what is the sensitivity to that TE and the $6 billion revenue target?

好的。然後是整個團隊。鑑於您修訂後的ATE市場，我們展望近期60億美元的營收目標，而就在6到9個月前，我們還在考慮您的營收是否會超過20億美元。現在又有了新的目標。我想弄清楚的是，問題是什麼，TE 和 60 億美元的營收目標之間的敏感度是多少？

Is that a baseline assumption? Is that a kind of average of awards and a best case scenario? And any thoughts around how you came up with the ATE and the $6 billion revenue target would be very helpful.

這是基本假設嗎？這是獎項的平均值，也是最佳情況的估計嗎？如果您能分享一下您是如何得出 ATE 和 60 億美元營收目標的，那就太好了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

So, I think-- first, I'll say that it's a balanced number that there are potential balloons and anchors around our $6 billion. Probably the most important uncertainty is the speed at which the market grows? Like how long does it take to get to this kind of a TAM size? And I say that because, like I've been in this business for a long time. And I've been in situations where we look into the future and we see like up until the right TAM forcasts and then external conditions change things.

所以，我認為──首先，我要說，這是一個平衡的數字，我們60億美元的預算中既有潛在的泡沫，也有潛在的阻礙。可能最重要的不確定因素是市場成長的速度？要達到這種TAM規模需要多久時間？我這麼說是因為我從事這個行業已經很久了。我曾經遇到過這樣的情況：我們展望未來，看到各種正確的TAM預測，但外部條件改變了一切。

So I think it's one of the reasons that we wanted to look at an evergreen model is because we can't predict the external factors that are going to drive the TAM. So that's probably the biggest X factor in all of this. The next is our share in the ATE market.

所以我認為，我們想要研究常青模型的原因之一是，我們無法預測驅動 TAM 的外部因素。所以，這或許是這一切中最大的未知因素。接下來是我們在ATE市場的佔有率。

And that is really related to the compute space. We have -- we believe we're positioned to gain share in the Compute space on an incremental basis, but it will take time, but we think that we have a good product and good position with the customers in this space to be able to increase ourselves from a relatively low position.

而這其實與計算領域有關。我們相信，我們有能力逐步擴大在運算領域的市場份額，但這需要時間，但我們認為，我們擁有優秀的產品，並且在這個領域擁有良好的客戶基礎，能夠從相對較低的地位發展壯大。

The next part of this and the thing that gives me a fair amount of confidence around our $6 billion number is the other stuff beyond the core ATE, the Compute space, if you will. I think the Mobile space, we are going to ride whatever the TAM does, and I think that TAM is going to recover on the basis of complexity. We are in a position to gain share in the Industrial and automotive space, because of the acquisition of the Power group that we got from Infineon last year to cover the wideband gap power market.

接下來，也是讓我對我們 60 億美元的數字相當有信心的部分，是核心 ATE 以外的其他部分，也就是計算領域。我認為行動領域的發展將取決於市場規模（TAM）的走勢，而我認為市場規模（TAM）會隨著複雜性的增加而復甦。由於去年我們從英飛凌收購了電源集團，因此涵蓋了寬頻隙電源市場，我們有能力在工業和汽車領域獲得份額。

And our IST business has a much broader customer base to help drive healthy revenue growth through this midterm and then we have this extra large customer in the Robotics space on top of the core business that we think is a catalyst for growth there. So I think we have a balanced plan going on to the future, and I think that helps to de-risk that number.

我們的IST業務擁有更廣泛的客戶群體，有助於推動中期健康的收入成長；此外，我們在機器人領域還有一個超大的客戶，我們認為這將成為該領域成長的催化劑。所以我認為我們有一個平衡的未來計劃，我認為這有助於降低該數字的風險。

Thank you. Krish Sankar, TD Cowen

謝謝。Krish Sankar，TD Cowen

Greg, congrats on the great results and guidance. I know you can't get into specifics. I'm just kind of curious on the GPU test side, which is a growth opportunity for you. What is the realistic market share expectation for this year? And how high can that go over the next 2 years or so? And can it partly into basic market share to? And then I had a quick follow-up.

格雷格，恭喜你取得如此優異的成績，也感謝你的指導。我知道你不能透露具體細節。我對GPU測試方面比較感興趣，這對你們來說是一個發展機會。今年實際的市佔率預期是多少？未來兩年左右，這個數字能漲到多高？它能否部分轉化為基本的市場佔有率？然後我又快速地跟進了一次。

Okay. So let me give you sort of a quick update of where we are in this project. So we're making great project -- progress, and we expect to achieve production qualification. The call process for these things is very complex. It's very extensive, and the exact date for our release production is tough to pin down, but we're really confident of our success here.

好的。那麼，讓我快速地向大家報告這個專案目前的進度。所以我們的專案進展順利，我們有望獲得生產資格。這些事情的呼叫流程非常複雜。這個專案規模非常大，確切的發布日期很難確定，但我們對這次的成功充滿信心。

Once we achieve qualification, I believe we'll incrementally gain share for these devices over the course of a couple of years. I just want to be clear that our guidance for Q1 does not include any merchant GPU revenue.

一旦我們獲得認證，我相信在接下來的幾年裡，我們將逐步提高這些設備的市場份額。我只想澄清一點，我們第一季的業績指引不包括任何商家GPU營收。

We see that as more of a factor in the second half of 2026, and we believe it would be a material amount of revenue for us, but it would not be a heck of a lot of share inside of the account where we want. So with single-digit kind of share numbers to start.

我們認為這在 2026 年下半年會是一個更重要的因素，我們相信這將為我們帶來可觀的收入，但不會在我們想要的帳戶中佔據很大的份額。所以一開始，股份數量可能只有個位數。

And then over time, what we've seen in other situations where we have a competitive dual source situation, is that we eventually get to a situation where the vendors are balanced between 30% and 70% share. And that is not saying that like our share top is 30%, but we'll take time to get up to that 30% and then we'll essentially be going head-to-head on a competitive basis around who gets how much.

然後隨著時間的推移，我們在其他競爭性雙供應商情況下看到的是，最終供應商的市佔率會在 30% 到 70% 之間達到平衡。這並不是說我們的市佔率上限是 30%，而是說我們需要時間才能達到 30%，然後我們基本上會在競爭的基礎上展開正面較量，看誰能獲得多少份額。

Got it. Very helpful. And then just a quick follow-up. I understand you don't want to give a full year outlook in first half weighted for this year. Is that because of I'm just curious because given that Mobile is less, I would expect no seasonality anymore. So I'm just curious, why do you think it's still first half weighted besides visibility on (inaudible).

知道了。很有幫助。然後還有一個簡短的後續問題。我明白您不想在上半年就給予全年的業績展望（包括今年的業績）。是因為……嗎？我只是好奇，因為考慮到行動裝置的銷售量較低，我原本以為季節性因素會消失。所以我很好奇，除了可見性之外，你認為為什麼它仍然在前半部分佔據主導地位？（聽不清楚）

So I'll give Michelle a chance to comment. I would say that part of it is because major programs that we're a part of are first half loaded, and so the demand that we can map for the full year is definitely more concentrated in the first half than the second half, but there's also an element of, we don't know about the second half that there are a lot of irons in the fire that could result in second half growth, but we can't pin that down enough to sort of give a confident forecast for where the full year would be. I don't know, Michelle, do you want to add anything on there?

所以我給米歇爾一個發言的機會。我認為部分原因是，我們參與的主要項目都集中在上半年，因此我們能夠預測的全年需求肯定比下半年更集中在上半年。但也有一部分原因是，我們對下半年的情況並不了解，有很多專案正在籌備中，可能會導致下半年成長，但我們無法確定這些專案的具體情況，因此無法對全年的情況做出有信心的預測。我不知道，米歇爾，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

I think you summed it up well, Greg. I think the only other thing I would add is in comparison to previous years, coming into '26, we have a really strong backlog, which is giving us better fidelity and insights into the first half.

格雷格，我覺得你總結得很好。我認為我唯一要補充的是，與往年相比，進入 2026 年，我們積壓了大量訂單，這讓我們對上半年的情況有了更清晰的了解和更深入的認識。

Jim Schneider, Goldman Sachs

吉姆‧施耐德，高盛

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Just a bit of a clarification, if I could, and I may have missed it, so I apologize. But if you -- as we think about 2026, can you maybe help give us a sense, given everything you said about the first half and 2-quarter visibility and the potential unknowns in the back half, maybe give us any sense about how we should be thinking about the Q2, relative to Q1 rough numbers?

早安.謝謝您回答我的問題。如果可以的話，我想稍微澄清一下，可能是我漏掉了什麼，所以很抱歉。但是，當我們展望 2026 年時，鑑於您之前對上半年和下半年的可見性以及下半年的潛在未知因素所做的一切，您能否幫助我們了解一下，相對於第一季度的大致數據，我們應該如何看待第二季度？

I mean, is flattish, something we should expect as a reasonable jumping up point on a sequential basis and/or can you help us on where you think, roughly, even if it's a large range, we could land in terms of the ATE TAM in 2026?

我的意思是，平坦是否是我們預期中合理的成長起點？或者，您能否幫我們大致估算一下，即使範圍很大，2026 年 ATE TAM 可能會達到什麼水平？

Yeah, so from a Q2 perspective, we're not going to give the second quarter guidance, just going to go back to, we have better visibility within the first half and I would expect '26 to be the inverse of 2025 by roughly 60% of our sales in the first half. We'll give you an update when we get into Q2. Thank you, Jim.

是的，所以從第二季的角度來看，我們不會給出第二季的業績指引，而是回到上半年的情況，我們對上半年的前景有更清晰的了解，我預計2026年上半年的銷售額將比2025年下降約60%。進入第二季時，我們會給您更新資訊。謝謝你，吉姆。

On the ATE TAM for 2026, what we talked about in our prepared remarks was a robust growth from 2025, and the reason that we're using adjectives versus numbers is that it comes down to a really wide range essentially based on the uncertainty in the second half. So like if you wanted to put a big wide range around it, it would be like 20% to 40% growth for the year, but we don't know where in that range it would land.

關於 2026 年的 ATE TAM，我們在準備好的演講稿中談到的是 2025 年以來的強勁增長，我們使用形容詞而不是數字的原因是，這最終會成為一個非常廣泛的範圍，主要取決於下半年的不確定性。所以，如果要給它設定一個很大的範圍，那就是今年成長 20% 到 40%，但我們不知道它最終會落在這個範圍的哪個位置。

Understood. That is helpful. And then maybe just as a follow-up, it was referred to before, and I think you talked about -- I think, to paraphrase many ways to get to the target model, assuming that not everything happens perfectly, even if the endpoint is uncertain, but as you think about that model, is that what you think could be a mid-cycle model in a couple or 3 years time, whereas that would kind of incorporate a lot of cyclical ups and downs once we get past this kind of period of very explosive growth.

明白了。那很有幫助。然後，也許可以作為後續問題，之前有人提到過，我想你也談過過——我想，用我的話來說，有很多方法可以達到目標模型，假設並非一切都會完美進行，即使最終結果不確定，但當你思考這個模型時，你認為它是否可以在兩三年內成為一個中期週期模型，而一旦我們度過了這種爆發式增長期，它就會包含很多周期性的起伏。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah. So the -- when we when we were doing a model that was like fixed to a particular year -- we always had all of these caveats around sort of we're trying to average out the cycle, looking at long-term growth trends and all of that was, in the end, not particularly helpful. So what we decided to do was to give people an idea of sort of what Teradyne would look like at $6 billion.

是的。所以——當我們做一個固定於特定年份的模型時——我們總是會提出各種各樣的限制條件，比如我們試圖平均週期，著眼於長期增長趨勢等等，但最終，所有這些並沒有特別的幫助。所以我們決定讓人們了解一下，如果泰瑞達公司擁有 60 億美元的市值，它會是什麼樣子。

And at $6 billion, we think that we need an ATE TAM between $12 billion and $14 billion to be at that kind of revenue level? And then the rest of the business model soREIT of drops down from there in terms of our expectations of the investments we need to make and the kind of margin we get.

我們認為，要達到 60 億美元的營收水平，我們需要 ATE TAM 在 120 億美元到 140 億美元之間？然後，就我們對所需投資和所獲利的預期而言，房地產投資信託基金 (soreit) 的商業模式的其他部分也隨之下降。

So I do believe that the model is achievable over the next few years. But whether it's at the -- whether you interpret a few as a small number or a few as a larger number really depends on how quickly the ATE TAM grows and that has to do with whether the current pace of data center build-out continues kind of at this rate. So the numbers that are out in terms of how much silicon is going into data centers are kind of mind-boggling.

所以我相信，在未來幾年內，這種模式是可以實現的。但是，你把「幾個」理解為小數字還是大數字，實際上取決於 ATE TAM 的成長速度，而這與資料中心建設的當前速度是否會繼續保持這種速度有關。因此，目前關於資料中心矽晶片使用量的數字令人瞠目結舌。

It's from '24 to '25, it's like 60% more silicon revenue in data centers. Looking out to 2026, it's way more than 100% year-on-year growth. So whether that can persist from '26 to '27 or if it moderates, that's the thing that's going to determine how fast it takes to get to that $6 billion.

從 2024 年到 2025 年，資料中心的矽收入成長了約 60%。展望 2026 年，年成長率將遠超過 100%。所以，這種趨勢能否從 2026 年持續到 2027 年，或者是否會放緩，這將決定達到 60 億美元目標需要多長時間。

Thank you. Brian Chin, Stifel

謝謝。Brian Chin，Stifel

Hi there, good morning. Thanks for letting us ask a few questions. Maybe to start with, Greg, I was wondering if you could outline maybe a few catalysts for GPU share gain over the next few years in terms of Teradyne's platform differentiation, higher device power and complexity and maybe the addition of new test insertions

您好，早安。謝謝你們允許我們提問。格雷格，或許首先，我想請你概述一下未來幾年泰瑞達平台差異化、裝置功耗和複雜性增加，以及新增測試模組等方面，可能推動GPU市場份額成長的幾個關鍵因素。

Yeah. So the addition of new test insertions, I think, is a catalyst for TAM growth more than a catalyst for share growth. So as these new insertions come in, we will have an opportunity to compete for them. And the same thing is as the merchant GPU market has more specialized chiplets per device, I think there's more shots on goal, more higher quality requirements for the test at the chiplet level. So there's a bunch of things that I think are accelerating the compute TAM.

是的。因此，我認為，新增測試插入量對 TAM 成長的促進作用大於對市場佔有率成長的促進作用。因此，隨著這些新插入項的推出，我們將有機會參與競爭。同樣的情況是，隨著商用 GPU 市場中每個裝置擁有更多專用晶片，我認為測試的機會更多，對晶片級測試的品質要求也更高。所以我認為有很多因素正在加速運算 TAM 的成長。

Now in terms of compute share, there are a number of things that I think our customers like about our product. The first and most obvious is that they believe that we have a more resilient supply chain that we're able to respond to demand with generally shorter lead times. And that's an important thing when their demands are somewhat unpredictable.

就計算份額而言，我認為我們的客戶喜歡我們產品的幾個方面。首先也是最顯而易見的一點是，他們認為我們擁有更具韌性的供應鏈，能夠以更短的交貨時間回應需求。當他們的要求難以預測時，這一點就顯得尤為重要。

The second is that it's actually a better tester. We have very good reliability in production circumstances. We have good uptime. The OSATs like it a lot. So they are helping to advocate for that as a choice. And we also have a next generation of instruments that is in beta test now, which will significantly increase the amount of power available to the devices and very importantly, the amount of memory for the test programs and the test patterns that these devices are going to need.

第二點是，它實際上是一個更好的測試工具。我們在生產環境中具有非常好的可靠性。我們的正常運作時間良好。OSAT 團隊非常喜歡它。所以他們正在幫助倡導將此作為一種選擇。我們還有下一代儀器，目前正在進行 beta 測試，它將顯著增加設備的可用功率，更重要的是，增加這些設備所需的測試程序和測試模式的記憶體容量。

The last is that I think our tester has better capabilities to allow these devices to be tested in the same way that they're used in the server in a mission mode. And that requires a pretty sophisticated, almost like building a server into the tester itself. So I think we have some advantages that allow us to achieve higher coverage, essentially moving defect detection as far to the left as possible.

最後一點是，我認為我們的測試人員擁有更好的能力，可以像在伺服器任務模式下使用這些設備一樣對這些設備進行測試。這需要相當複雜的技術，幾乎就像在測試器本身中建立伺服器一樣。所以我認為我們有一些優勢，可以實現更高的覆蓋率，本質上是將缺陷檢測盡可能提前。

Great. That's really helpful. And then I think in the prepared remarks, you mentioned a new HDD customer. Is that an example of your test platform outperforming their internal tester? I guess, how much growth do you expect from HDD test in '26 and also what revenue base in '25.

偉大的。這真的很有幫助。然後，我想您在準備好的演講稿中提到了一位新的硬碟客戶。這是否說明你們的測試平台表現優於他們的內部測試人員？我想問一下，您預計 2026 年 HDD 測試會成長多少？ 2025 年的收入基礎又會是多少？

And then kind of last part of that. More broadly, are there other historical instances of semiconductor logic and DRAM IDMs using captive test platforms? And way at the point there where complexity in semi test really compels those companies also to use external platforms.

然後就是最後一部分。更廣泛地說，歷史上還有哪些半導體邏輯和 DRAM IDM 使用專用測試平台的範例？而到了半導體測試的複雜性真正迫使這些公司也使用外部平台的地步。

Yeah. So in HDD of commercial test replacing in-house test -- the right way to think about it is complementing internal tests. I don't think that this is like a way for a customer to affect -- so -- but we're really excited about the change because we've been and we've been working to try and achieve it for a number of years. From a revenue perspective, we don't break out the HDD versus other revenue inside of the IST Group. But I will tell you that like our HDD revenue is going to like double between 2025 and 2026.

是的。因此，在 HDD 中，商業測試取代內部測試——正確的理解方式是將其視為內部測試的補充。我不認為這是客戶可以施加影響的一種方式——所以——但我們對這一變化感到非常興奮，因為我們多年來一直在努力實現這一目標。從收入角度來看，我們不會對 IST 集團內部的 HDD 收入與其他收入進行單獨分析。但我可以告訴你，我們的硬碟收入在 2025 年到 2026 年間將會翻倍。

Sorry, you had a part B to your question, which is other captive in the rest of the semiconductor ATV space. So right now, -- there are really -- there's one big player in SoC, and there's one big player in memory that have captive ATE strategies. I think the like long term, I think the memory one is probably more persistent. The SoC one, I think, is probably going to change over the next couple of years as the there are a broader range of customers for foundry that want commercial platforms.

抱歉，您的問題還有 B 部分，這部分內容屬於半導體 ATV 領域的其他範疇。所以現在，SoC 領域確實只有一家大型廠商，記憶體領域也只有一家大型廠商，它們都擁有自主研發的 ATE 策略。我認為從長遠來看，記憶力方面的影響可能更持久。我認為，SoC 領域在未來幾年可能會發生變化，因為代工廠的客戶群越來越廣泛，他們需要的是商業平台。

Samik Chatterjee, JPMorgan

薩米克·查特吉，摩根大通

Yeah. Thanks for taking my questions. Greg, maybe if I can just change gears here and ask you about the TAM. And in your prepared remarks, I think you did say you're expecting it to be about 1.5x in the current TAM in your target model.

是的。謝謝您回答我的問題。格雷格，或許我可以換個話題，問你關於TAM的問題。在你的準備發言稿中，我想你確實說過，你預期在目標模型中，目前TAM的規模將達到1.5倍左右。

I mean, is that sort of all driven by the complexity or are you thinking about some sort of volume tailwinds as well -- and then you did mention near term there being sort of a capital efficiency of customers that may be making you a bit more cautious, if you can explain that as like what you're seeing on that front that we quick follow-up.

我的意思是，這完全是由複雜性驅動的，還是您也考慮到了某種銷售成長的利多因素？ ——您也提到，短期內客戶的資本效率可能會讓您更加謹慎，如果您能解釋一下您在這方面看到的情況，我們將盡快跟進。

Sure. So yeah, the thing that we want to try and emphasize is that in like a $12 billion to $14 billion TAM model we are not expecting the mobile TAM to get back to prior peak that it's like a half decent guess is somewhere like halfway between where it is now and the prior peak. So -- and you're asking in terms of like what would drive that. I think that it is primarily around complexity, that's not units.

當然。所以，我們想強調的是，在 120 億至 140 億美元的 TAM 模型中，我們預計移動 TAM 不會恢復到之前的峰值，一個比較合理的估計是，它應該介於現在的水平和之前的峰值之間。所以——你是在問是什麼因素會驅動這種情況。我認為這主要與複雜性有關，與單位無關。

That smartphone units have been sort of hovering in a relatively narrow range there's a potential that if there's a compelling new form factor or really compelling AI-based features that it would drive a higher refresh rate, but that certainly hasn't been the case for the last 4- or 5-years. So we're modeling kind of relatively consistent unit volume but increased complexity across the broad product line.

智慧型手機的刷新率一直徘徊在一個相對狹窄的範圍內，如果出現引人注目的新外形設計或真正引人注目的基於人工智慧的功能，則有可能推動更高的刷新率，但在過去 4 到 5 年裡，這種情況肯定沒有發生過。因此，我們正在模擬相對一致的單位體積，但整個產品線的複雜性卻在增加。

Now the reason that we are are cautious about that, I think like we're pretty certain that there's going to be a lot of complexity growth and more complexity means more testers are required. However, there is a really large fleet of testers that are installed for mobile, and there are a lot of different parts across a number of different vendors that could use very similar tester configurations.

我們之所以對此保持謹慎，我認為我們相當肯定，複雜性將會增加，而複雜性的增加意味著需要更多的測試人員。然而，目前已安裝了大量用於行動裝置的測試儀，而且許多不同供應商生產的零件可能使用非常相似的測試儀配置。

And so by carefully arranging the use of that fleet they can optimize the utilization on a year-round basis, and it can help to moderate the amount of additional capacity that they need to add. In the old days, like back in 2020, 2021, there was a smaller installed base and there were fewer SKUs that were being tested, -- more of them were being introduced and ramped very quickly. That was the kind of thing that really piled up the demand to drive much higher TAMs.

因此，透過精心安排車隊的使用，他們可以全年優化利用率，這有助於減少他們需要增加的額外運力。在過去，例如 2020 年、2021 年，安裝基礎較小，測試的 SKU 也較少——當時推出的 SKU 數量更多，而且推廣速度非常快。正是這類因素真正推高了市場需求，從而帶來了更高的市場規模。

And maybe just for my follow-up, going back to the AI compute side. I mean you did mention that the VIP ASC sort of what's not launched already in production in the volumes are a bit tough to quantify at this point. But in terms of broadening of the customer base, given it's a very concentrated sort of purchasing from a few customers right now, as you look out to the medium term, particularly in terms of your earnings target earnings model, do we see -- do you see a broadening out of the customer base?

或許我接下來要補充的是，回到人工智慧運算方面。我的意思是，你確實提到過 VIP ASC 之類的產品，但目前還沒有正式投產，其產量現在很難量化。但就擴大客戶群而言，鑑於目前客戶購買非常集中，主要來自少數客戶，展望中期，特別是就您的盈利目標盈利模型而言，我們是否看到——您是否看到客戶群擴大？

Does that sort of reduce when you get to that target model does that reduce the lumpiness in the business, just given higher visibility from a broader set of customers?

當達到目標模型時，這種波動是否會減少？是否會因為來自更廣泛客戶群的更高可見度而減少業務中的不穩定性？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah. So in a $12 billion to $14 billion TAM, our expectation is that we would add additional logos in terms of VIP compute wins. But it's not like it's going to go from a very small number to dozens. It's more like four or five different programs -- and what I expect to see the steady state in this market is that Teradyne and Advantest are going to be competing on a generational basis for new design wins -- and those decisions are going to be made on the basis of the features of the tester, the reliability of the tester more than sort of incumbency as the thing that drives the selection.

是的。因此，在 120 億至 140 億美元的 TAM 市場中，我們預計我們將在 VIP 運算業務的贏得方面增加更多客戶。但這不可能從極少數人一下子增加到幾十人。更像是四到五個不同的項目——我預計這個市場的穩定狀態是，泰瑞達和愛德萬測試將在新一代產品的基礎上競爭，以贏得新的設計訂單——而這些決定將更多地基於測試儀的功能和可靠性，而不是像現在這樣，成為選擇的決定性因素。

David Duley, Steelhead

David Duley，Steelhead

Thank you for taking my questions. I guess the first one is, I think you mentioned 30% customers. Could you talk about which segments they might be in or how large they might be? I know you probably don't want to give us the names, but if you could give us things that would be great as well.

謝謝您回答我的問題。我想第一個問題是，我記得你提到過 30% 的客戶。您能否談談它們可能屬於哪些細分市場，或者它們的規模有多大？我知道你可能不想告訴我們名字，但如果你能提供一些信息，那就太好了。

In the 3, 10% customers, as Michelle said, 2 of them were specifiers, one was a purchasing customer. The specifying customers, 1 was in the Mobile space, 1 was in the Compute space. And the purchasing customer does it all.

正如米歇爾所說，在這 3 位客戶中，有 10% 是指定客戶，其中 2 位是採購客戶。指定的客戶中，1 個來自行動領域，1 個來自計算領域。而購買的顧客則包辦了一切。

Okay. And relative size of how much above 10%, I guess I'm just trying to figure out customer concentration.

好的。至於超過 10% 的相對比例是多少，我想我只是想弄清楚客戶集中度。

Roughly 10%, it's not substantially higher than that.

大約10%，不會比這高很多。

So each one around 10%, is that what you just said? I'm sorry

所以每隻佔10%左右，你是這麼說的嗎？對不起

Yeah.

是的。

Okay. All right. Final question, I guess, is, Greg, I think you kind of mentioned, when you look at all the pieces for 2026, the overall TAM growth, I guess, is going to be around 30% I'm guessing that the SoC TAM goes faster than that and the memory TAM goes slower than that in 2026.

好的。好的。最後一個問題，Greg，我想你剛才提到過，從 2026 年的整體市場規模來看，我估計整體市場規模成長率會在 30% 左右。我猜測 2026 年 SoC 市場規模的成長速度會更快，而記憶體市場規模的成長速度會更慢。

If you could just comment on roughly the growth in each piece. And then if you said you're going to gain share in 2026, and that means, obviously, you're going to grow faster than 30%? Is that a fair assumption?

能否請您大致評價每件作品的成長情況？如果你說你將在 2026 年獲得市場份額，那顯然意味著你的成長速度將超過 30%？這種假設合理嗎？

No. The -- yes, the -- like in a range between 20 and 40, you may arithmetically put that at the mean of 30. We are not trying to communicate that at all. We are trying to communicate that we have -- we don't have sufficient visibility into the second half to give a good TAM estimate for 2026.

不。——是的，——例如在 20 到 40 的範圍內，你可以用算術方法將其平均值設為 30。我們完全沒有想表達這個意思。我們想傳達的訊息是——我們對下半年的情況沒有足夠的了解，因此無法對 2026 年的 TAM 做出準確的估計。

Your assumption around SoC growing faster in memory going slower, I think it's fair. I think that we are expecting that kind of a market where the Compute TAM is already big, and it's going to grow a lot. The Memory TAM is going to grow more incrementally. The -- we believe that we are positioned for share gain, and that really depends to a certain extent around whether -- like which segments of the TAM grow the most.

我認為你關於SoC成長速度加快而記憶體成長速度減慢的假設是合理的。我認為我們預期會出現這樣的市場：計算領域的市場規模已經很大，而且還會大幅成長。記憶體市場的潛在市場規模將以漸進的方式成長。我們相信我們已經做好了獲得市場份額的準備，而這在某種程度上取決於TAM的哪些細分市場成長最快。

So even if we gain share in compute, since our share position in compute is relatively lower if the compute TAM grows a ton, then that could be dilutive for our overall share position even though we're getting better in every segment that we serve. So that's the reason that I want to be cautious about that.

因此，即使我們在計算領域獲得份額，由於我們在計算領域的份額相對較低，如果計算領域的市場規模大幅增長，即使我們在所服務的每個細分市場都取得了進步，這也可能會稀釋我們的整體份額。所以，這就是我對此保持謹慎的原因。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Vedvati Shrotre, Evercore.

Vedvati Shrotre，Evercore。

Thanks for squeezing me in. One clarification I had is so the GPU win, the GPU merchant win -- does that, in any way, dictate your second half versus first half dynamic? And then even in the new target model, are you assuming contributions from CP wins?

謝謝你擠出時間幫我。我還有一個疑問，那就是 GPU 廠商的勝利——這是否會以某種方式決定你們下半場與上半場的動態？即使在新目標模型中，您是否假設 CP 獲勝會帶來貢獻？

So yes, a significant ramp associated with merchant GPU would have an impact in the second half. I'm not sure I caught the second part of your question

所以，是的，與商家 GPU 相關的顯著成長將在下半年產生影響。我不太確定我是否理解了你問題的第二部分。

Is that a part of your new target model as well?

這也是你們新目標模型的一部分嗎？

Oh, yeah. So -- and it's -- but the thing I want to emphasize is -- as I said, the merchant like share in merchant GPU is going to be an incremental gain over years -- and so it is a part of that $6 billion model, but we don't assume a radically high share in the merchant GPU space.

哦，是的。所以——而且——但我想強調的是——正如我所說，商家GPU的份額將在未來幾年逐步增長——因此它是60億美元模型的一部分，但我們並不假設商家GPU領域會佔據非常高的份額。

Understood. And then the second question I had was on the robotics, you have the large e-commerce program starting to ramp. So does that mean that you -- is there a possibility that your revenues grow like the robotics piece grows to higher than the breakeven revenues that you have for that business?

明白了。然後我的第二個問題是關於機器人技術的，你們的大型電子商務專案正在逐步推進。那麼，這是否意味著——你的收入有可能像機器人業務一樣成長，最終超過你為該業務設定的損益平衡點收入嗎？

Yeah. So we're aiming at breakeven for Robotics this year -- and we expect -- so just in terms of the large e-commerce customer, we think that, that revenue is kind of going to triple-ish between 2025 and 2026 and then grow substantially post '26 as the deployments go to a larger number of facilities. So that's a pretty good tailwind. And it -- so I think we're looking to have that business at breakeven in '26 and then contributing positively beyond.

是的。因此，我們今年的目標是實現機器人業務的收支平衡——我們預計——僅就大型電子商務客戶而言，我們認為，2025 年至 2026 年間，該業務的收入將增長三倍左右，然後在 2026 年之後隨著部署到更多設施而大幅增長。所以這算是相當不錯的順風。所以，我認為我們希望這項業務在 2026 年實現收支平衡，然後在此之後做出積極貢獻。

And this concludes our Q&A session as well as the Teradyne fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings call and webcast. You may disconnect your line at this time. Have a wonderful day

至此，我們的問答環節以及泰瑞達2025年第四季和全年財報電話會議和網路直播就結束了。現在您可以斷開線路了。祝您有美好的一天