泰瑞達 (TER) 2021 Q2 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Q2 2021 Teradyne Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is not -- this conference call will resume -- I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Mr. Andy Blanchard.

    女士們,先生們,早上好,歡迎參加 2021 年第二季度泰瑞達收益電話會議。 (操作員說明)提醒一下,本次電話會議不是——本次電話會議將繼續進行——我現在想將會議轉交給您的主持人安迪·布蘭查德先生。

  • Andrew J. Blanchard - VP of Corporate Relations

    Andrew J. Blanchard - VP of Corporate Relations

  • Thank you, Phyllis. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our discussion of Teradyne's most recent financial results. I'm joined this morning by our CEO, Mark Jagiela; and our CFO, Sanjay Mehta.

    謝謝你,菲利斯。大家早上好,歡迎來到我們關於泰瑞達最新財務業績的討論。今天早上,我們的首席執行官 Mark Jagiela 加入了我的行列;和我們的首席財務官 Sanjay Mehta。

  • Following our opening remarks, we'll provide details of our performance for 2021's second quarter along with our outlook for the third quarter of 2021. The press release containing our second quarter results was issued last [evening]. [We're providing slides] on the Investor page of the website that may be helpful to you when following the discussion. Replays of this call will be available via the same page after the call ends.

    在我們的開場白之後,我們將提供我們 2021 年第二季度業績的詳細信息以及我們對 2021 年第三季度的展望。包含我們第二季度業績的新聞稿於去年 [晚上] 發布。 [我們正在提供幻燈片] 在網站的投資者頁面上,這可能對您進行討論時有所幫助。通話結束後,將通過同一頁面重播此通話。

  • Matters that we discuss today will include forward-looking statements that involve risk factors that could cause Teradyne's [results] to differ materially from management's current expectations. We encourage you to review the safe harbor statement contained in the earnings release as well as our most recent SEC filings. Additionally, those forward-looking statements are made as of today, and we take no obligation to update them as a result of developments occurring after this call.

    我們今天討論的事項將包括涉及風險因素的前瞻性陳述,這些風險因素可能導致泰瑞達的 [結果] 與管理層當前的預期存在重大差異。我們鼓勵您查看收益發布中包含的安全港聲明以及我們最近提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件。此外,這些前瞻性陳述是在今天做出的,我們沒有義務因為這次電話會議後發生的事態發展而對其進行更新。

  • During today's call, we'll make reference to non-GAAP [financial] measures. We've posted additional information concerning those non-GAAP financial measures, including reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and were available on the [Investor page] of our website.

    在今天的電話會議中,我們將參考非 GAAP [財務] 措施。我們已經發布了有關這些非公認會計原則財務指標的更多信息,包括與最直接可比的公認會計原則財務指標的對賬,並可在我們網站的 [投資者頁面] 上找到。

  • Looking ahead between now and our next earnings call, Teradyne expects to participate in technology or industrial-focused investor conferences hosted by KeyBanc, Rosenblatt Securities, Deutsche Bank and Citi.

    展望從現在到我們的下一次財報電話會議,泰瑞達預計將參加由 KeyBanc、Rosenblatt Securities、德意志銀行和花旗主辦的以技術或行業為重點的投資者會議。

  • Now let's get on with the agenda. First, Mark will comment on our recent results and the market conditions as we enter the new quarter. Sanjay will then offer more details on our quarterly results along with our guidance for the third quarter. We'll then answer your questions, and this call is scheduled for [1 hour].

    現在讓我們繼續議程。首先,馬克將在我們進入新季度時評論我們最近的業績和市場狀況。然後,桑傑將提供有關我們季度業績的更多細節以及我們對第三季度的指導。然後,我們將回答您的問題,本次電話會議時間為 [1 小時]。

  • Mark?

    標記?

  • Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director

    Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director

  • Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. Today, I'll summarize our results for the second quarter and first half of 2021, update on current conditions in both Test and Industrial Automation, and comment on our view for the second half of the year. Sanjay will then provide the financial details on the quarter and our guidance for Q3.

    大家早上好,感謝您加入我們。今天,我將總結我們 2021 年第二季度和上半年的業績,更新測試和工業自動化的現狀,並評論我們對下半年的看法。然後,桑傑將提供該季度的財務細節以及我們對第三季度的指導。

  • The strong demand we saw in Q1 accelerated in Q2 as both our Test and Industrial Automation groups grew substantially in the quarter. The long-term demand drivers we've discussed in the past continue to power demand for our products. In Test, it's device complexity and unit growth; in Automation, it's labor scarcity, the need for resiliency and productivity improvement.

    由於我們的測試和工業自動化部門在本季度大幅增長,我們在第一季度看到的強勁需求在第二季度加速增長。我們過去討論過的長期需求驅動因素繼續推動對我們產品的需求。在測試中,它的設備複雜性和單位增長;在自動化方面,勞動力稀缺,需要彈性和提高生產力。

  • Opening further, performance at the company level from 2016 through 2020 saw our sales and non-GAAP EPS grow at a compounded rate of 16% and 32%, respectively. For the first half of this year, sales are running ahead of that rate at 21%, and non-GAAP earnings per share grew at 29% compared with last year. This demonstrates both the [vitality] of the markets we serve and the efficiency of our operating model.

    進一步開放,從 2016 年到 2020 年,公司層面的業績使我們的銷售額和非公認會計原則每股收益分別以 16% 和 32% 的複合增長率增長。今年上半年,銷售額以 21% 的速度超過該速度,非 GAAP 每股收益與去年相比增長了 29%。這證明了我們服務的市場的[活力]和我們運營模式的效率。

  • Significantly, in Q2, we saw Industrial Automation demand recover in all major regions, but particularly in North America. As a result, our production and [operating teams] operated at a high pace in Q2, and that pace is [increasing] in Q3. For the year, our IA business is on track to grow about 30% from 2019 and about 40% from 2020.

    值得注意的是,在第二季度,我們看到所有主要地區的工業自動化需求都在復蘇,尤其是在北美。因此,我們的生產和[運營團隊]在第二季度以高速度運行,並且在第三季度這種速度正在[增加]。今年,我們的 IA 業務有望從 2019 年增長約 30%,從 2020 年增長約 40%。

  • Looking closely at the segment level. In Semi Test, SOC shipments grew 29% in Q2 from Q2 of 2020 with particular strength in both the compute and mobility end markets. For the first half, SOC sales grew 19%. For the first time in several years, smartphone unit shipments are helping growth in the mobility [segment], where as recent years have mostly relied on complexity growth.

    仔細觀察細分市場。在 Semi Test 中,SOC 出貨量在第二季度較 2020 年第二季度增長了 29%,在計算和移動終端市場上表現尤為突出。上半年,SOC 銷售額增長 19%。幾年來,智能手機出貨量首次幫助移動 [segment] 的增長,而近年來主要依賴於復雜性的增長。

  • [IA] and compute are the 2 largest subsegments in SOC. Automotive, analog and industrial demand continues to be strong. The auto-related semi test market is expected to exceed $500 million this year, the highest level since 2017. This is despite the fact that automobile unit production will be about (inaudible) lower in 2017 -- lower than 2017. A portion of this strength is test equipment. We're also seeing the impact of increased semi content and complexity per automobile, driving the test market.

    [IA] 和計算是 SOC 中最大的 2 個子部分。汽車、模擬和工業需求繼續強勁。今年與汽車相關的半試車市場預計將超過 5 億美元,這是自 2017 年以來的最高水平。儘管事實上 2017 年汽車的單位產量將低於(聽不清)——低於 2017 年。其中的一部分實力是測試設備。我們還看到每輛汽車增加半成品含量和復雜性的影響,推動了測試市場。

  • Our memory test shipments also grew in Q2 from Q2 of 2020, up 9%, led by flash tester demand. For the 6-month period, overall shipments were up 18% from last year on solid demand for both flash wafer and [flash] systems. This reflects significant growth in smartphone demand, the build-out of new memory capacity in China and the growth of SSD demand.

    在閃存測試儀需求的帶動下,我們的內存測試出貨量在 2020 年第二季度也比 2020 年第二季度增長了 9%。在 6 個月期間,由於對閃存晶圓和 [閃存] 系統的強勁需求,整體出貨量比去年增長了 18%。這反映了智能手機需求的顯著增長、中國新內存容量的增加以及 SSD 需求的增長。

  • Looking at the full year, we are again revising up the SOC market for 2021 to now be in the range of $4.3 billion to $4.7 billion with increasing strength in the x86 GPU and display driver segments. Recall that we have lower customer exposure in those markets with much of this incremental growth going to our competitors. So we'll likely see our SOC share around 48% for the year.

    縱觀全年,我們再次上調 2021 年的 SOC 市場,目前在 43 億至 47 億美元的範圍內,x86 GPU 和顯示驅動程序領域的實力不斷增強。回想一下,我們在這些市場中的客戶曝光率較低,而這些增量增長大部分流向了我們的競爭對手。因此,我們很可能會看到我們今年的 SOC 份額約為 48%。

  • In memory, at the macro level, our market estimates are unchanged with the test market this year expected to be about $1 billion and our share to be at about the 40% level. I will note that the expected ramp of DDR5 for server applications and the broader adoption of LPDDR5 is pushing out into 2022.

    在內存方面,在宏觀層面,我們的市場估計沒有變化,今年的測試市場預計約為 10 億美元,我們的份額約為 40% 的水平。我會注意到,用於服務器應用程序的 DDR5 的預期增長以及 LPDDR5 的更廣泛採用將推遲到 2022 年。

  • Shifting to our System Test group, sales were up 26% in the first half compared with 2020, with strong Storage Test demand and a recovery in our Production Board Test unit driving the growth. For the full year, we see System Test group -- the System Test group grow in the 10% to 20% range.

    轉向我們的系統測試部門,上半年銷售額與 2020 年相比增長了 26%,強勁的存儲測試需求和我們的生產板測試部門的複蘇推動了增長。全年,我們看到系統測試組——系統測試組在 10% 到 20% 的範圍內增長。

  • At LitePoint, sales in Q2 were up 12% over 2Q 2020. While 5G millimeter wave demand is lower than expected, the environment in Wireless Test is improving as we move through the year due to the continued WiFi 6 growth and early WiFi 7 investments. In addition, ultra-wideband adoption is increasing, adding a new growth vector for LitePoint. For the full year, LitePoint will likely grow in the 10% range.

    在 LitePoint,第二季度的銷售額比 2020 年第二季度增長了 12%。雖然 5G 毫米波需求低於預期,但由於 WiFi 6 的持續增長和早期的 WiFi 7 投資,無線測試的環境正在改善。此外,超寬帶的採用正在增加,為 LitePoint 添加了新的增長點。全年,LitePoint 可能會增長 10%。

  • Moving on to Industrial Automation. The combination of expanding demand across our major markets and the increase in the range of tests served by our Universal Robots and MiR units drove group sales up 57% in Q2 last year [to 45%] in the first half. Compared to pre-pandemic 2019, first half sales are up 22%. Supply chain issues have constrained growth a little bit with lead times pushing out about 1 week.

    轉向工業自動化。我們主要市場的需求不斷擴大,加上我們的 Universal Robots 和 MiR 裝置所服務的測試範圍增加,推動去年上半年集團銷售額在去年第二季度增長了 57% [至 45%]。與大流行前的 2019 年相比,上半年銷售額增長了 22%。供應鏈問題稍微限制了增長,交貨時間推遲了大約 1 週。

  • The demand environment for IA has recovered in most regions from last year's slowdown. America was the fastest-growing major region in Q2 with sales up over 90% from last year. Although we did see a (inaudible) some countries in Asia where COVID has spiked in recent months, the second half of the year outlook is quite strong in all our major regions.

    大多數地區的 IA 需求環境已從去年的放緩中恢復。美國是第二季度增長最快的主要地區,銷售額比去年增長了 90% 以上。儘管我們確實看到(聽不清)亞洲的一些國家最近幾個月 COVID 飆升,但我們所有主要地區的下半年前景都相當強勁。

  • Our long-term growth strategy in IA continues unchanged, and we expect long-term annual growth in the 20% to 35% range. This year, we will likely have a growth of about 40% from 2020, and we will continue to invest to enable this growth target of [15%] gross margins, [get] a 5% to 15% operating margin during these high-growth years.

    我們在 IA 的長期增長戰略保持不變,我們預計長期年增長率在 20% 至 35% 之間。今年,我們可能會比 2020 年增長約 40%,我們將繼續投資以實現 [15%] 毛利率的增長目標,[獲得] 5% 至 15% 的營業利潤率在這些高-成長年。

  • From an investment perspective, we are expanding our engineering programs to shorten deployment times, increase the served market and improve the customer support experience. We are also growing our capacity to support distributors, integrators and UR plus and MiRGo apps development partners as [they] engage customers. We are also expanding our sales to OEMs that integrate our robots into their products.

    從投資的角度來看,我們正在擴大我們的工程計劃以縮短部署時間、擴大服務市場並改善客戶支持體驗。我們還在提高我們的能力,以支持分銷商、集成商以及 UR plus 和 MiRGo 應用程序開發合作夥伴 [他們] 吸引客戶。我們還將銷售範圍擴大到將我們的機器人集成到其產品中的 OEM。

  • Last quarter, we noted the expanding range of applications for UR robots into the high-voltage line application with hundreds of (inaudible) being deployed. Today, I'd like to highlight the success of UR+ plug-and-play applications for Industrial [Automation].There is a long-standing and chronic shortage of qualified welders worldwide with an estimated 100,000 unfilled welding jobs in the U.S. alone. While automated solutions exist for large applications like auto manufacturing, customers with lower volume and higher mix products are not well served by traditional automation.

    上個季度,我們注意到 UR 機器人的應用範圍擴大到高壓線應用,部署了數百個(聽不清)。今天,我想強調一下 UR+ 即插即用應用在工業 [自動化] 方面的成功。全球範圍內長期且長期缺乏合格的焊工,僅在美國就估計有 100,000 個未完成的焊接工作。雖然自動化解決方案適用於汽車製造等大型應用,但傳統自動化無法很好地服務於產量較低、產品組合較多的客戶。

  • The integration of a force torque sensor into e-Series cobots enabled the precision needed for this application. And with UR+ [integrating] with our partners, we began serving this market about 3 years ago. During this time, welding applications have grown to be about 6% of our global [sales]and are on (inaudible) 1,000 cobots sold in 2021, more than tripling our 2020 pace.

    將力扭矩傳感器集成到 e 系列協作機器人中,實現了該應用所需的精度。隨著 UR+ 與我們的合作夥伴 [整合],我們大約在 3 年前開始服務於這個市場。在此期間,焊接應用已增長到我們全球 [銷售額] 的 6% 左右,並且在 2021 年售出(聽不清)1,000 台協作機器人,是我們 2020 年速度的三倍多。

  • As we continue to extend the performance of our UR platform, we expect these high applications had growth vectors to traditional industrial applications. We have similar market-expanding initiatives in play on our MiR platform, but I'll save those details for a future call.

    隨著我們繼續擴展我們的 UR 平台的性能,我們預計這些高應用程序對傳統工業應用程序具有增長向量。在我們的 MiR 平台上,我們有類似的市場拓展計劃,但我會保留這些細節以備將來調用。

  • Summing it all up, the first half of the year has been a strong sales, strong gross margins and earnings growth (inaudible). Longer term, the markets we serve are showing [increasing demand] in a future global economy. The importance, pervasiveness and enabling capability of electronics in every [aspect] of our lives and industry is driving more fab investment, more complexity and more test. Likewise, the broadening application and fast [ROI of] [collaborative] robots in a world with labor shortages and productivity challenges is another growth trend.

    總而言之,今年上半年銷售強勁,毛利率強勁,盈利增長(聽不清)。從長遠來看,我們所服務的市場在未來的全球經濟中顯示出[不斷增長的需求]。電子產品在我們生活和工業的各個[方面]中的重要性、普遍性和使能能力正在推動更多的晶圓廠投資、更多的複雜性和更多的測試。同樣,在勞動力短缺和生產力挑戰的世界中,[協作]機器人的廣泛應用和快速 [ROI] 是另一個增長趨勢。

  • Strategically, we positioned ourselves in line with (inaudible) and plan to continue to make [System] Test and IA as our full potential while driving world-class [returns]. While the rate of change in our markets is accelerating, we are well positioned to thrive as a company and to bring additional value to customers and shareholders.

    從戰略上講,我們將自己定位為(聽不清),併計劃繼續將 [系統] 測試和 IA 作為我們的全部潛力,同時推動世界級的 [回報]。雖然我們的市場變化速度正在加快,但我們已做好準備,作為一家公司蓬勃發展,並為客戶和股東帶來額外價值。

  • I'll now turn things over to Sanjay [to provide] additional color on the financials.

    我現在將把事情交給 Sanjay [以提供] 財務報表的額外顏色。

  • Sanjay Mehta - CFO, VP & Treasurer

    Sanjay Mehta - CFO, VP & Treasurer

  • Thank you, Mark. Good morning, everyone. Today, I'll [provide details] on our Q2 results, comment on current business conditions and describe [our outlook for] Q3.

    謝謝你,馬克。大家,早安。今天,我將[提供詳細信息]我們的第二季度業績,評論當前的業務狀況並描述[我們對第三季度的展望。

  • Now to Q2. Second quarter sales were $1.086 billion with non-GAAP EPS of $1.91, up 29% and 44%, respectively, from Q2 '20. Non-GAAP gross margins were 59.6%, and our non-GAAP operating expenses were $250 million, but $5 million below the high guidance due to the timing of some nonrecurring engineering expenses.

    現在到第二季度。第二季度銷售額為 10.86 億美元,非公認會計原則每股收益為 1.91 美元,比 20 年第二季度分別增長 29% 和 44%。非美國通用會計準則毛利率為 59.6%,我們的非美國通用會計準則運營費用為 2.5 億美元,但由於一些非經常性工程費用的時間安排,比高指導低 500 萬美元。

  • Non-GAAP operating profit rate was 36.5%. [Gross margin] in the quarter was [59.6%] compared with our plan of 58%. The increase was tied to favorable product mix in the quarter versus planned.

    非美國通用會計準則營業利潤率為 36.5%。本季度的[毛利率]為[59.6%],而我們的計劃為58%。這一增長與本季度有利的產品組合與計劃相比。

  • For context, Q2 2020 gross margin was approximately [56.2%]. In April (inaudible), we noted that this level of gross margin would continue in the near term, driven by the introduction of several key test systems in early 2020, which would [take several] quarters to come down the cost curve. These new product introductions, coupled with heightened costs driven by COVID shortages, were impacting our gross margins in 2020. One year later, we have now most of these test solutions at volume, and they have come down the cost curve as expected.

    就上下文而言,2020 年第二季度的毛利率約為 [56.2%]。在 4 月(聽不清),我們注意到,在 2020 年初引入的幾個關鍵測試系統的推動下,這一水平的毛利率將在短期內持續下去,這將 [需要幾個] 季度來降低成本曲線。這些新產品的推出,加上 COVID 短缺導致的成本上升,正在影響我們在 2020 年的毛利率。一年後,我們現在已經量產了大部分這些測試解決方案,並且它們已經按預期降低了成本曲線。

  • The result contributed to higher margins in the second quarter, which we expect will continue in the second half of the year. A component of gross margin improvement over 2020 is higher revenue yielding of leverage in the gross margin line. We had one 10% customer in the quarter (inaudible) excluding discrete items of [14.5%]on both GAAP and non-GAAP basis.

    這一結果有助於提高第二季度的利潤率,我們預計這將在下半年繼續。 2020 年毛利率改善的一個組成部分是毛利率線中槓桿的更高收入收益率。我們在本季度有一個 10% 的客戶(聽不清),不包括在 GAAP 和非 GAAP 基礎上 [14.5%] 的離散項目。

  • Looking at the results from a business unit perspective. [Semi Test] revenue of $834 million was up 27% from Q2 2020. SOC revenue was $742 million, up 29%, driven by strength in compute, mobility, industrial and automotive. Memory revenue was $92 million, up 9% from prior year, driven by strength in flash test and flash wafer sort segments.

    從業務部門的角度來看結果。 [Semi Test] 收入為 8.34 億美元,比 2020 年第二季度增長 27%。受計算、移動、工業和汽車領域實力的推動,SOC 收入為 7.42 億美元,增長 29%。內存收入為 9200 萬美元,比上年增長 9%,這主要得益於閃存測試和閃存晶圓分類領域的實力。

  • System Test group had revenue of $105 million, which was up 46% year-over-year. This is driven by $58 million in Storage Test sales, including both HDD and SLT solutions; [$27 million] in Defense & Aerospace and Production Board Test.

    System Test 集團的收入為 1.05 億美元,同比增長 46%。這是由 5800 萬美元的存儲測試銷售額推動的,包括 HDD 和 SLT 解決方案; [2700 萬美元] 用於國防和航空航天以及生產板測試。

  • In Storage Test, HDD and SLT demand remains robust as drive densities continue to increase and the number of devices adopting [SLT spokes]. At LitePoint, revenue of $55 million was 12% -- was up 12% from prior year due to continued strength at [WiFi], increases in (inaudible) and ultra-wide band test market segments.

    在存儲測試中,隨著驅動器密度不斷增加以及採用 [SLT 輻條] 的設備數量不斷增加,HDD 和 SLT 的需求依然強勁。在 LitePoint,收入為 5500 萬美元,同比增長 12%,原因是 [WiFi] 的持續強勢、(聽不清)和超寬帶測試細分市場的增長。

  • Now to Industrial Automation. As we did in April, I'll provide revenue metrics comparing Q2 '21 results with both Q2 '20 and Q2 '19, so you'll have the full context given the impact of a contracting market tied to COVID last year. Industrial Automation revenue of $92 million was up 57% year-over-year and 23% over Q2 '19. Revenue expanded in all regions in Q2 [over] last year, with North America delivering the highest absolute revenue growth. U.S. and Europe represented about 77% of IA revenue in the quarter, with China contributing about 14%.

    現在到工業自動化。正如我們在 4 月所做的那樣,我將提供收入指標,將 21 年第二季度的結果與 20 年第二季度和 19 年第二季度的結果進行比較,因此鑑於去年與 COVID 相關的承包市場的影響,您將獲得完整的背景信息。工業自動化收入為 9200 萬美元,同比增長 57%,比 19 年第二季度增長 23%。去年第二季度所有地區的收入均有所增長,其中北美的絕對收入增長最高。本季度美國和歐洲約佔 IA 收入的 77%,中國約佔 14%。

  • UR sales were $76 million in Q2, up 75% year-over-year and [80%] over 2019. MiR sales were $16 million, up 41% from Q2 '20 and 51% from Q2 '19. Recall, MiR had an (inaudible) on Q2 '20 as its robots were widely deployed in automated COVID disinfectant applications.

    UR 銷售額在第二季度為 7600 萬美元,同比增長 75%,比 2019 年增長 [80%]。MiR 銷售額為 1600 萬美元,比 20 年第二季度增長 41%,比 19 年第二季度增長 51%。回想一下,MiR 在 20 年第二季度有一個(聽不清),因為它的機器人被廣泛部署在自動化 COVID 消毒劑應用中。

  • The longer-term outlook in our IA business continues to brighten. We expect continued labor shortages to drive new applications for both our fixed and mobile robots. Mark highlighted the shortage of welders and how that has opened up a new market for our UR cobots, but that is just one of many job categories with acute short-term and long-term labor shortages.

    我們 IA 業務的長期前景繼續向好。我們預計持續的勞動力短缺將推動我們的固定和移動機器人的新應用。 Mark 強調了焊工的短缺以及這如何為我們的 UR 協作機器人開闢了一個新市場,但這只是短期和長期勞動力嚴重短缺的眾多工作類別之一。

  • Our strategy is to provide an open platform that creative developers can leverage to solve industry-specific labor shortages. The numerous filling ultraviolet disinfecting solutions built on our [platform] last year is a shining example of the agility of our partner networks to solve problems.

    我們的策略是提供一個開放平台,創意開發人員可以利用它來解決特定行業的勞動力短缺問題。去年在我們[平台]上構建的眾多灌裝紫外線消毒解決方案是我們合作夥伴網絡解決問題的敏捷性的一個光輝例子。

  • We're investing in engineering, support and marketing resources to make our MiR platforms even easier to build upon, which will enable the continued proliferation of high-value automated solutions to solve challenging problems for an expanding range of customers. Significantly, these development partners and customers provide great feedback on our R&D development plans.

    我們正在投資於工程、支持和營銷資源,以使我們的 MiR 平台更易於構建,這將使高價值自動化解決方案的持續擴散能夠為越來越多的客戶解決具有挑戰性的問題。值得注意的是,這些開發合作夥伴和客戶對我們的研發開發計劃提供了很好的反饋。

  • From a financial perspective, we expect IA will operate around the low end of our target profit range of 5% and 15%. We do expect IA to operate above the Rule of 40 in 2021, that is the sum of operating profit and revenue growth of over [40%]. Longer term, when growth moderates, we expect the IA group to have a similar operating profit rate as our Test portfolio.

    從財務角度來看,我們預計 IA 將在我們目標利潤範圍 5% 和 15% 的低端運行。我們確實預計 IA 的運營將在 2021 年超過 40 條規則,即營業利潤和收入增長的總和超過 [40%]。從長遠來看,當增長放緩時,我們預計 IA 集團的營業利潤率將與我們的測試組合相似。

  • Shifting to supply. We continue to manage through numerous supply constraints along with increased material, manufacturing and logistics costs in both our Test and IA businesses. For some products in both Test and IA, the supply constraints have extended our [lead times], and we're working closely with customers to minimize the impact of these delays.

    轉向供應。我們繼續在我們的測試和 IA 業務中應對眾多供應限制以及材料、製造和物流成本的增加。對於測試和 IA 中的某些產品,供應限制延長了我們的 [交貨時間],我們正在與客戶密切合作,以盡量減少這些延遲的影響。

  • But we've been able to offset these higher costs through operating leverage with higher volumes and other cost-saving measures, so the cost increase impact on the P&L has not been material. We do expect to be dealing with supply line-related issues in Q3 and Q4 this year, which are reflected in our forecasts.

    但是我們已經能夠通過更高的產量和其他成本節約措施來抵消這些更高的成本,因此成本增加對損益的影響並不重大。我們確實預計將在今年第三季度和第四季度處理與供應線相關的問題,這反映在我們的預測中。

  • Shifting to the balance sheet and cash flow. Our cash and marketable securities at the end of the quarter totaled $1.42 billion, $172 million of free cash flow in the quarter, $151 million and $17 million on buybacks and dividends, respectively. Year-to-date, we've repurchased 1.6 million shares for $197 million at an average [price] of $125.69 per share.

    轉向資產負債表和現金流。本季度末,我們的現金和有價證券總額為 14.2 億美元,本季度的自由現金流為 1.72 億美元,回購和股息分別為 1.51 億美元和 1700 萬美元。年初至今,我們以每股 125.69 美元的平均 [價格] 以 1.97 億美元的價格回購了 160 萬股股票。

  • Regarding our convertible debt. $15.6 million was paid in Q2 to convertible bondholders ahead of maturity. By the end of August 2021, bondholders will have already converted a total of $302 million, leaving a face value of $58 million outstanding.

    關於我們的可轉換債券。第二季度在到期前向可轉換債券持有人支付了 1560 萬美元。到 2021 年 8 月底,債券持有人將已兌換 3.02 億美元,未償還面值為 5800 萬美元。

  • Looking at our operating model, I'd like to make 3 quick points. First, our performance over time. From 10 years ago, our gross margin percent has expanded from the low to [mid-50s] to nearly 60% [today] and our operating margin from the teens to low 20s to greater than 30% today.

    看看我們的運營模式,我想快速提出 3 點。首先,隨著時間的推移我們的表現。從 10 年前開始,我們的毛利率百分比已經從低 [50 年代中期] 擴大到 [今天] 的近 60%,我們的營業利潤率從 10 多歲到 20 多歲低到今天的 30% 以上。

  • Second, our flexible business model shifts fixed cost to variable costs where appropriate through [contract] or outsourced manufacturing, variable compensation and other [means], which enables resiliency on the downside and is creative (sic) [accretive] when business is strong.

    其次,我們靈活的商業模式通過[合同]或外包製造、可變薪酬和其他[手段]在適當的情況下將固定成本轉變為可變成本,這可以在不利的情況下實現彈性,並且在業務強勁時具有創造性(原文如此)[增值]。

  • Third, the operating leverage in the model is evident in our Q2 results. Our Test businesses are dropping through over $0.50 per revenue dollar through to the profit line in 2021...

    第三,模型中的經營槓桿在我們的第二季度業績中很明顯。到 2021 年,我們的測試業務正在從每美元收入超過 0.50 美元跌至利潤線……

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (technical difficulty)

    (技術難度)

  • Sanjay Mehta - CFO, VP & Treasurer

    Sanjay Mehta - CFO, VP & Treasurer

  • Thank you.

    謝謝你。

  • Andrew J. Blanchard - VP of Corporate Relations

    Andrew J. Blanchard - VP of Corporate Relations

  • Ladies and gentlemen, we're going to have a quick transition.

    女士們,先生們,我們將進行快速過渡。

  • Sanjay Mehta - CFO, VP & Treasurer

    Sanjay Mehta - CFO, VP & Treasurer

  • I'll go back -- okay, it's Sanjay again. I'll go back to looking at our operating model. I'd like to make 3 quick points. First, our performance over time from 10 years ago, our gross margin percent has expanded from low to mid-50s to nearly 60% today and our operating margin from the teens to low 20s to greater than 30% today.

    我會回去——好吧,又是桑傑。我會回頭看看我們的運營模式。我想快速提出 3 點。首先,我們從 10 年前開始的表現,我們的毛利率從低到 50 多歲到今天的近 60%,我們的營業利潤率從十幾歲到 20 多歲到今天的 30% 以上。

  • Second, our flexible business model shifts fixed cost to variable costs, where appropriate, through contract or outsourced manufacturing, variable compensation and other means, which enables resiliency on the downside and is accretive when business is strong.

    其次,我們靈活的商業模式將固定成本轉變為可變成本,在適當的情況下,通過合同或外包製造、可變薪酬和其他方式,這可以在下行時提供彈性,並在業務強勁時增加。

  • Third, the operating leverage in the model is evident in our Q2 results. Our Test businesses are dropping through over $0.50 per revenue dollar through to the profit line in 2021, even while we continue to increase our R&D support -- and support investments to strengthen our Test business. This enables Teradyne to continue to invest in both our Test and IA portfolios. For IA, we are building a deeper product ecosystem and distribution differentiation while achieving the Rule of 40 in our IA portfolio.

    第三,模型中的經營槓桿在我們的第二季度業績中很明顯。即使我們繼續增加研發支持並支持投資以加強我們的測試業務,我們的測試業務也正在從每美元收入超過 0.50 美元下降到 2021 年的利潤線。這使泰瑞達能夠繼續投資於我們的測試和 IA 產品組合。對於 IA,我們正在構建更深層次的產品生態系統和分銷差異化,同時在我們的 IA 產品組合中實現 40 規則。

  • Now to our outlook for Q3. As Mark noted, the demand environment across the business remains strong. Our guidance assumes no significant changes, positive or negative, in the availability of materials and also assumes that we won't see additional pandemic-related issues. With that said, sales in Q3 are expected to be between $880 million and $960 million with non-GAAP EPS in the range of $1.29 to $1.55 and 176 million diluted shares.

    現在來看我們對第三季度的展望。正如馬克所指出的,整個企業的需求環境依然強勁。我們的指導假設材料的可用性沒有重大變化,無論是積極的還是消極的,並且還假設我們不會看到其他與大流行相關的問題。話雖如此,第三季度的銷售額預計在 8.8 億美元至 9.6 億美元之間,非公認會計準則每股收益在 1.29 美元至 1.55 美元之間,稀釋後的股票為 1.76 億美元。

  • Third quarter guidance excludes the amortization of acquired intangibles and noncash imputed interest on convertible debt. Third quarter gross margins are estimated to be between 59% and 60%. OpEx is expected to run at 27% to 29% of third quarter sales. The non-GAAP operating profit at the midpoint of our third quarter guidance is 32%.

    第三季度指引不包括所購無形資產的攤銷和可轉換債務的非現金估算利息。第三季度毛利率估計在 59% 至 60% 之間。 OpEx 預計將佔第三季度銷售額的 27% 至 29%。我們第三季度指引中點的非公認會計原則營業利潤為 32%。

  • Regarding OpEx for the full year. While we spent a bit lower than planned in Q2, we expect the full year OpEx will be about in line with the plan we described in April. We expect total operating expenses for 2021 to be about $1 billion or up approximately 19% from 2020. We recognize that we're on track to meet our 2024 earnings model this year. We'll update the model on a regular cadence in January after our detailed midterm plan income is complete in Q4 this year.

    關於全年的運營支出。雖然我們在第二季度的支出略低於計劃,但我們預計全年運營支出將與我們在 4 月描述的計劃大致相符。我們預計 2021 年的總運營費用約為 10 億美元,比 2020 年增長約 19%。我們認識到,我們有望在今年實現 2024 年的盈利模式。在今年第四季度我們詳細的中期計劃收入完成後,我們將在 1 月份定期更新模型。

  • In summary, our businesses are performing extremely well, delivering strong revenue and earnings growth while funding the investments that will drive future success. Our first half sales grew 21%, and non-GAAP EPS grew 29% above the first half of 2020, which itself was a record. We expect to deliver the highest Q3 sales and profits in history.

    總之,我們的業務表現非常出色,在為推動未來成功的投資提供資金的同時,實現了強勁的收入和盈利增長。我們上半年的銷售額增長了 21%,非公認會計準則每股收益比 2020 年上半年增長了 29%,這本身就是一個記錄。我們預計將實現歷史上最高的第三季度銷售額和利潤。

  • Our employees and production partners around the world have delivered a record number of systems under challenging conditions. Our support teams have done whatever was needed to make our customers successful. And our engineering teams have kept the new product pipeline moving on schedule. It's been an impressive display of teamwork, and I'm proud to be part of this powerful Teradyne team.

    我們在世界各地的員工和生產合作夥伴在具有挑戰性的條件下交付了創紀錄數量的系統。我們的支持團隊已盡一切努力使我們的客戶取得成功。我們的工程團隊使新產品管道按計劃進行。這是團隊合作的一次令人印象深刻的展示,我很自豪能成為這個強大的泰瑞達團隊的一員。

  • With that, I'll turn things back to Andrew.

    有了這個,我會把事情轉回給安德魯。

  • Andrew J. Blanchard - VP of Corporate Relations

    Andrew J. Blanchard - VP of Corporate Relations

  • Thanks, Sanjay. And everybody, thanks for dealing with our small technical issue there. Phyllis, we would now like to take some questions. (Operator Instructions)

    謝謝,桑傑。大家,感謝您在那里處理我們的小技術問題。菲利斯,我們現在想回答一些問題。 (操作員說明)

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Brian Chin with Stifel.

    (操作員說明)您的第一個問題來自 Brian Chin 與 Stifel 的對話。

  • Brian Edward Chin - Associate

    Brian Edward Chin - Associate

  • A couple of questions here. Maybe just to kick things off. I'm just curious to what degree, if any, are the extended lead times in ATE in this sort of the current strong semiconductor environment impacting your shipment outlook or pattern in the second half? Obviously, Teradyne no longer discloses bookings, but your competitor appears to be building backlog into the December quarter. So I was wondering if you have better-than-typical backlog visibility beyond September.

    這裡有幾個問題。也許只是為了開始。我只是好奇,在這種當前強勁的半導體環境下,ATE 的交貨期延長在多大程度上(如果有的話)會影響您下半年的出貨前景或模式?顯然,泰瑞達不再披露預訂情況,但您的競爭對手似乎正在將訂單積壓到 12 月季度。所以我想知道你在 9 月之後是否有比典型的積壓更好的可見性。

  • Sanjay Mehta - CFO, VP & Treasurer

    Sanjay Mehta - CFO, VP & Treasurer

  • Yes. So lead times have definitely been moving out. I'd say auto and industrial demand is still outstripping supply. But our lead times have pushed out, obviously, based on the very, very tight supply chain environment we're dealing with. And so what used to be, let's say, within a quarter has pushed out to 5, 8 weeks incremental to where we were in the past to be, in some cases, in the 20s in weeks of lead time. So with that, we have been seeing, I guess, improved bookings from our customers, and we're working with them to manage through it.

    是的。所以交貨時間肯定已經推遲了。我想說汽車和工業需求仍然超過供應。但顯然,基於我們正在處理的非常非常緊張的供應鏈環境,我們的交貨時間已經推遲。因此,比方說,過去一個季度內的情況已經推遲到 5 到 8 週,比我們過去的情況增加了 20 週的交貨時間。因此,我想,我們已經看到客戶的預訂量有所改善,我們正在與他們合作以解決這個問題。

  • Brian Edward Chin - Associate

    Brian Edward Chin - Associate

  • Got it. And then maybe for Mark. I think you touched on how, at least in the smartphone market, units are kind of a bigger tailwind this year, which hasn't always been the case in recent years. But I think in the 2022, what do you think -- to what degree could increased packaging complexity across foundries and maybe some IDMs be a more meaningful driver of incremental test intensity next year?

    知道了。然後也許是馬克。我想你談到了,至少在智能手機市場,今年的單位是一種更大的順風,近年來並非總是如此。但我認為在 2022 年,您認為 - 代工廠之間的封裝複雜性會在多大程度上增加,也許一些 IDM 會成為明年增加測試強度的更有意義的驅動因素?

  • Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director

    Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes, we -- that's a good question. We bundle that into the complexity side of life. And there's already been advanced packaging technologies deployed for several years now in phones, but it's increasing. So that trend of multichip, multi-die packaging incrementally adds test time above and beyond what you would get if you were putting all of that silicon on a single integrated die. And there's not a good rule of thumb of how much of an adder it is, but it is a trend that's going to continue to grow and drive tests.

    是的,我們——這是一個很好的問題。我們將其捆綁到生活的複雜性方面。幾年來,先進的封裝技術已經部署在手機中,而且還在不斷增加。因此,多芯片、多芯片封裝的趨勢逐漸增加了測試時間,超出了將所有矽片放在單個集成芯片上所獲得的時間。並沒有一個好的經驗法則來說明它有多少加法器,但它是一種趨勢,它將繼續增長並推動測試。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Atif Malik with Citi.

    您的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Atif Malik。

  • Atif Malik - Director & Semiconductor Capital Equipment and Specialty Semiconductor Analyst

    Atif Malik - Director & Semiconductor Capital Equipment and Specialty Semiconductor Analyst

  • I have a similar question on the mobility side end market. It sounds like your mobility outlook has improved for the year versus 90 days ago despite millimeter wave weakness. You talked about units helping. Can you talk about the confidence in test intensity staying elevated for both mobility and compute into next year? And if you can also highlight the steps you're taking to improve your market share in the areas that you're not strong, like x86 GPU and display drivers.

    我對移動端終端市場也有類似的問題。儘管毫米波疲軟,但與 90 天前相比,您今年的出行前景似乎有所改善。你談到了單位的幫助。您能否談談對明年移動和計算測試強度保持高位的信心?如果您還可以突出顯示您正在採取的步驟,以提高您在您不擅長的領域的市場份額,例如 x86 GPU 和顯示驅動程序。

  • Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director

    Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. So I think the complexity trends looking even into the next year are all very strong and positive. In the case of mobility, the newer lithographies that are coming online are being widely adopted by the manufacturers of silicon for phones, which portends more transistors, which portends more test time. So that, looking into next year, all looks positive. And we get, at this point in the year, early glimpses of what the silicon for next year might actually look like.

    是的。因此,我認為即使到明年的複雜性趨勢都非常強勁和積極。在移動性方面,即將上線的較新光刻技術正被手機矽製造商廣泛採用,這預示著更多的晶體管,也預示著更多的測試時間。因此,展望明年,一切看起來都是積極的。在今年的這個時候,我們可以初步了解明年的矽片實際上會是什麼樣子。

  • The -- on the compute side, similarly, we not only have the trend of lower lithography nodes, but the new interface standards related to LPDDR5 and DDR5, as I mentioned in my remarks, the early adoption of that has been pushed out a little bit as the processors that go with it have been delayed a bit. But all of the complexity required to run at those higher bandwidths is coming in 2022. So those are 2 positive things I look at that gives me confidence that this driver of complexity growth is definitely going to be strong next year.

    - 在計算方面,同樣,我們不僅有更低光刻節點的趨勢,而且與 LPDDR5 和 DDR5 相關的新接口標準,正如我在評論中提到的,早期採用已經被推遲了一點位,因為與之配套的處理器已經延遲了一點。但是,以更高帶寬運行所需的所有復雜性都將在 2022 年到來。因此,我看到的 2 件積極的事情讓我相信,這種複雜性增長的驅動力明年肯定會很強勁。

  • In terms of share, what we said before is that penetrating the traditional x86 GPU stalwarts is going to be a long-term endeavor for us that's going to hinge on some kind of technological discontinuity like that shift to DDR5 or like a shift to PAM4 interfaces to crack into. So that one is episodic and will play out over, let's say, 3 to 5 years.

    在份額方面,我們之前說過,滲透傳統的 x86 GPU 中堅力量對我們來說將是一項長期的努力,這將取決於某種技術的不連續性,比如轉向 DDR5 或轉向 PAM4 接口破解。所以那個是偶發的,會持續,比如說,3到5年。

  • On the other front is -- are the emerging hyperscalers and new people coming into the market of creating complex silicon. These are automobile manufacturers, hyperscalers that we've talked about in the past, the Googles, the Facebooks, the Microsofts, the Amazons, that's where we're focused on getting a position to grow with them as they launch their products into the market in the shorter term.

    另一方面是——新興的超大規模製造商和進入複雜矽製造市場的新人。這些是我們過去討論過的汽車製造商、超大規模製造商、谷歌、Facebook、微軟、亞馬遜,這就是我們專注於在他們將產品推向市場時與他們一起成長的地方在短期內。

  • Atif Malik - Director & Semiconductor Capital Equipment and Specialty Semiconductor Analyst

    Atif Malik - Director & Semiconductor Capital Equipment and Specialty Semiconductor Analyst

  • Great, very helpful. And Sanjay, for you, the largest U.S. phone maker and your biggest indirect customer talked about supply constraints impacting smartphone sales in the September quarter yesterday. Have the materials and parts tightness gone worse over the last 90 days for your business?

    太好了,很有幫助。昨天,美國最大的手機製造商和最大的間接客戶 Sanjay 談到了影響智能手機銷售的供應限制。在過去 90 天內,您的企業的材料和零件密封性是否變差?

  • Sanjay Mehta - CFO, VP & Treasurer

    Sanjay Mehta - CFO, VP & Treasurer

  • Well, first of all, I won't comment on any particular customer, but I will speak in general about the environment. Last year, we were really working through demand increases, but we had fairly good, robust inventory strategies, and we are working through the impact of COVID. You have thousands of components that go into these testers, and we did a lot of resiliency improvements there. You fast forward to today's environment, and the demand has really kept accelerating. And the environment is tighter, I would say, today. And frankly, we don't see it letting up until the second half of 2022.

    好吧,首先,我不會評論任何特定的客戶,但我會籠統地談論環境。去年,我們確實在努力應對需求增長,但我們有相當好的、穩健的庫存策略,我們正在努力應對 COVID 的影響。你有成千上萬的組件進入這些測試器,我們在那裡做了很多彈性改進。你快進到今天的環境,需求確實在不斷加速。我會說,今天的環境更加緊張。坦率地說,我們認為它要到 2022 年下半年才會放緩。

  • So I think as the semiconductor industry goes through continued growth, you're seeing supply chains really getting tested. And then with the increase in the infection rates of COVID, especially, I'd say, in Southeast Asia, we're working through and managing the best we can. But I believe the net summation is it's a tighter industry now than it was, say, 3, 6 months ago.

    因此,我認為隨著半導體行業的持續增長,您會看到供應鏈確實受到了考驗。然後隨著 COVID 感染率的增加,尤其是在東南亞,我們正在盡我們所能努力和管理。但我相信淨總和是現在它是一個比 3、6 個月前更緊的行業。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Mehdi Hosseini with SIG.

    您的下一個問題來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

  • Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst

    Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst

  • Two questions, one on ARM-based ASIC design. I'm trying to get a sense of how you see the TAM. You can either elaborate as a mix of SOC tests or perhaps you can tell us how is the test time for an ARM-based ASIC chip compared to like an app process or maybe that way we could give a sense of how demand looks like. So either qualitatively or quantitatively, you can -- if you can elaborate on ARM-based SOC test will be great. And I have a follow-up.

    兩個問題,一個關於基於 ARM 的 ASIC 設計。我試圖了解您如何看待 TAM。您可以詳細說明 SOC 測試的組合,或者您可以告訴我們基於 ARM 的 ASIC 芯片的測試時間與應用程序進程相比如何,或者我們可以了解需求情況。因此,無論是定性還是定量,你都可以——如果你能詳細說明基於 ARM 的 SOC 測試將會很棒。我有一個後續行動。

  • Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director

    Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. So I guess the first thing I'd say is that a ARM-based high-end map processor, which is what's in most of our phones today, driving most of our phones, has a transistor count that's equivalent to any laptop, x86 kind of product you might have in your computer. And the test times comparatively between those 2 are not that different. It's kind of proportional to test count.

    是的。所以我想我要說的第一件事是基於 ARM 的高端地圖處理器,這是我們當今大多數手機中的驅動器,驅動著我們的大多數手機,其晶體管數量相當於任何筆記本電腦,x86 類型您的計算機中可能擁有的產品。並且這兩者之間的測試時間比較並沒有那麼不同。它與測試計數成正比。

  • The new ARM processors that are coming to market for compute applications, not smartphone applications, have perhaps anywhere from a 25% to 60% at or, on transistor count, above what's at the highest end of smartphones. And the test time associated with them, I would say, is proportionately longer at this point. And so I think it's, generally speaking, scaling with transistor count, and the transistor count on the ARM side is running a little bit at a faster clip than it is on the more traditional architecture side, if that helps.

    面向計算應用而非智能手機應用上市的新 ARM 處理器的晶體管數量可能比智能手機的最高端高 25% 到 60%,或者在晶體管數量上。我想說,與它們相關的測試時間在這一點上成比例地更長。所以我認為,一般來說,隨著晶體管數量的增加,ARM 端的晶體管數量比傳統架構端的運行速度要快一些,如果有幫助的話。

  • Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst

    Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst

  • Sure. So the follow-up has to do with ARM-based. Actually, I want to just dig in a little bit more. Would you, at some point, break this out so we could better understand how kind of ARM-based SOC tester is tracking or scaling versus the rest of the SOC market? And number two, is there anything you can give us to better understand the competitive landscape for this specific application?

    當然。所以後續就跟ARM相關了。其實,我只是想再深入一點。您是否會在某個時候打破這一點,以便我們更好地了解基於 ARM 的 SOC 測試儀與其他 SOC 市場相比如何跟踪或擴展?第二,您有什麼可以讓我們更好地了解這個特定應用的競爭格局的嗎?

  • Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director

    Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. I guess I haven't thought about trying to find a way to break out ARM because most of what mobility is, is ARM; and then there's, let's say, compute applications for ARM; and then there's some processors that are almost dual-use, and they go into either application. So I think it's fair to say that any compute business that we have at Teradyne is ARM-based compute. And perhaps maybe in the future, we can look at some way to sort of characterize both the market and our associated revenue for that. But I don't have a good number for you now on that.

    是的。我想我還沒有想過試圖找到一種方法來突破 ARM,因為大多數移動性是 ARM;然後是 ARM 的計算應用程序;然後有一些處理器幾乎是兩用的,它們可以進入任何一個應用程序。因此,我認為可以公平地說,泰瑞達的任何計算業務都是基於 ARM 的計算。也許在未來,我們可以尋找某種方式來描述市場和我們的相關收入。但我現在沒有一個好的數字給你。

  • And in terms of the applications coming to market, in the short term, we know about the phone applications, we know about some early adopters of ARM for compute. Those are all coming to market or are in the market now. The hyperscalers that we're working with are coming into market at various points next year with products that are quite interesting but highly speculative as to whether they'll latch in the market. And obviously, I'm not going to talk about those because they're pretty confidential. But we'll see what latches. If one of these applications can become a 100-plus million unit application, which most of these design teams are targeting, then that's a significant adder to the market.

    而在即將上市的應用程序方面,在短期內,我們了解手機應用程序,我們了解一些早期採用 ARM 進行計算的應用程序。這些都即將上市或現在正在上市。我們正在與之合作的超大規模企業將在明年的不同時間點進入市場,其產品非常有趣,但對於它們是否會進入市場具有高度投機性。顯然,我不會談論這些,因為它們非常機密。但我們會看看有什麼鎖存器。如果這些應用程序中的一個可以成為這些設計團隊中的大多數都瞄準的超過 100 百萬個單位的應用程序,那麼這對市場來說是一個重要的補充。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Vivek Arya with Bank of America.

    您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Vivek Arya。

  • Vivek Arya - Director

    Vivek Arya - Director

  • I was curious, how is your kind of visibility for Q4 as you kind of stand today versus what it is usually? And if you could give us some color by end market in terms of what is in your assumption for Q3 and the second half, that would be very helpful.

    我很好奇,當你今天的立場與通常情況相比,你對第四季度的知名度如何?如果您可以根據您對第三季度和下半年的假設,在終端市場上給我們一些顏色,那將非常有幫助。

  • Sanjay Mehta - CFO, VP & Treasurer

    Sanjay Mehta - CFO, VP & Treasurer

  • Sure. So Q4, if I look back at my last 2 years here, we've been surprised mainly on the positive side. And I'd say that given the tightness of supply and customers providing a little bit more in the way of backlog, it gives us a little bit more insight. However, obviously, in the near term, we have much stronger visibility in Q3 than in Q4. And so -- but we do have, I'd say, a little bit of incremental visibility.

    當然。所以第四季度,如果我回顧我在這裡的過去 2 年,我們主要在積極方面感到驚訝。我想說的是,鑑於供應緊張和客戶以積壓的方式提供更多,這讓我們有了更多的洞察力。然而,很明顯,在短期內,我們在第三季度的能見度要比第四季度強得多。所以 - 但我們確實有,我想說,一點點增量可見性。

  • In color -- in your question in regards to color for Q3, we see continued strength in semiconductor. Obviously, the different components within Semi Test are going to be a little volatile, but we do see a trend down. It's still what we believe is very strong demand, but we see a trend down. And we see in our IA portfolio, really, a strength. Obviously, with the COVID impact in 2020, industrials are really coming back. I'll cite some PMIs in the 60s at the U.S. and Europe. And we really see that in our, as Mark noted, in our growth in the U.S. But we're seeing that growth in China as well as in Europe and the U.S. So continued expected growth in IA and then, from a test perspective, coming down a bit.

    在顏色方面——在你關於第三季度顏色的問題中,我們看到半導體的持續強勢。顯然,Semi Test 中的不同組件會有些波動,但我們確實看到了下降的趨勢。我們認為這仍然是非常強勁的需求,但我們看到了下降的趨勢。我們在我們的 IA 產品組合中看到了真正的優勢。顯然,隨著 2020 年新冠病毒的影響,工業界真正捲土重來。我將引用 60 年代美國和歐洲的一些 PMI。正如馬克所說,我們確實在我們的美國增長中看到了這一點,但我們在中國以及歐洲和美國看到了這種增長所以在 IA 繼續預期增長,然後,從測試的角度來看,即將到來下降一點。

  • Vivek Arya - Director

    Vivek Arya - Director

  • Got it. And then on the UR side, Mark, I'm curious, what are the top 3 applications you're serving today? And how do you expect these applications to evolve? You are maintaining a very strong growth rate in that business. And I'm curious, what is driving that. Is it more number of customers? Is it more applications within the same customer? So what's giving you the confidence you can maintain this very strong growth rate in the UR business? And is -- on the gross margin side, is it accretive? I know on the operating margin side, you've given a range. But I imagine on the gross margin side, it might be accretive to your business.

    知道了。然後在 UR 方面,Mark,我很好奇,你今天服務的前 3 個應用程序是什麼?您希望這些應用程序如何發展?您在該業務中保持著非常強勁的增長率。我很好奇,是什麼推動了這一點。是不是更多的客戶?同一客戶中有更多應用程序嗎?那麼,是什麼讓您有信心在 UR 業務中保持如此強勁的增長率呢?而且 - 在毛利率方面,它是增值的嗎?我知道在營業利潤率方面,您已經給出了一個範圍。但我想在毛利率方面,它可能會增加你的業務。

  • Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director

    Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. It's interesting because there's no silver bullet as to what's driving the growth at UR. So for example, we're going to be up about 30% from revenue in 2019, 40% up from 2020. And in the script, I mentioned this application for welding, which is a brand-new application that is now driving about 6% of our sales for the year. Last quarter, I talked about this service application for servicing high-voltage power lines that's also running at around that 6% of sales applications that was nonexistent -- essentially nonexistent 2 years ago.

    是的。這很有趣,因為對於推動 UR 增長的因素沒有靈丹妙藥。例如,我們將在 2019 年的收入基礎上增長 30%,比 2020 年增長 40%。在腳本中,我提到了這個用於焊接的應用程序,這是一個全新的應用程序,現在正在推動大約 6我們當年銷售額的百分比。上個季度,我談到了這個用於維修高壓電力線的服務應用程序,該服務應用程序也在大約 6% 的銷售應用程序中運行,而這在 2 年前基本上是不存在的。

  • So already, we have 12% of our growth attributed to new applications in new markets with new customers that we didn't have 2 years ago. So it's a combination of expanding applications like those 2 examples as well as established markets growing that's driving this. And our top 3 applications tend to be the same. It's automotive supply chain, it's industrial machine tending and it's electronic assembly tend to be the ones that are at the top of the pack. But frankly, they are shrinking as a percentage of sales as these new applications come online.

    因此,我們已經有 12% 的增長歸功於新市場中的新應用程序以及我們在 2 年前沒有的新客戶。因此,像這兩個示例這樣的擴展應用程序以及推動這一點的成熟市場增長的結合。我們的前 3 個應用程序往往是相同的。它是汽車供應鏈,它是工業機器,它的電子組裝往往是最重要的。但坦率地說,隨著這些新應用程序的上線,它們在銷售額中所佔的百分比正在縮小。

  • So what gives me confidence looking forward is that ecosystem of partners who are developing these application solutions on our platform, not our competitors, is just continuing to grow and prosper. And they're not all going to be as successful as high-voltage line tending or welding. But it only takes 10% of them to fuel the kind of growth numbers that we've been seeing. And the activity there is very strong, and the technology is maturing to the point that more and more applications can economically be served.

    因此,讓我對未來充滿信心的是,在我們的平台上開發這些應用程序解決方案的合作夥伴生態系統,而不是我們的競爭對手,正在繼續成長和繁榮。而且它們並不都像高壓線路維護或焊接那樣成功。但只需要其中的 10% 就可以推動我們所看到的那種增長數字。那裡的活動非常強大,技術正在成熟到可以經濟地為越來越多的應用程序提供服務的程度。

  • And over the horizon, when you look at what AI can bring, there's a whole new set of, let's say, features that will enable yet another expansion of the market. It's what gives us the confidence to talk about these kind of decade-long growth rates of 25%, 30%, 35%.

    在地平線上,當你看到人工智能可以帶來什麼時,會有一套全新的功能,比如說,將推動市場的另一次擴張。這讓我們有信心談論這種長達十年的 25%、30%、35% 的增長率。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of John Pitzer with Credit Suisse.

    您的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 John Pitzer。

  • John William Pitzer - MD, Global Technology Strategist and Global Technology Sector Head

    John William Pitzer - MD, Global Technology Strategist and Global Technology Sector Head

  • Mark, maybe another way to ask the calendar fourth quarter question is, over the last 3 years, the business has run in such a way that second half has been greater than the first half from a top line perspective, which has broken kind of a trend, where if you go back the prior 7 years, it was first half stronger than second half. Did you have any commentary on sort of how you think the second half over the first half looked this year just given how strong the market environment is and how tight test capacity is?

    馬克,問日曆第四季度問題的另一種方式可能是,在過去 3 年中,業務的運行方式是,從收入的角度來看,下半年的業績要好於上半年,這已經打破了趨勢,如果你回到前 7 年,上半年比下半年強。鑑於市場環境有多強勁以及測試能力有多緊,您對今年下半年與上半年的看法有何評論?

  • Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director

    Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director

  • You're right, perfect student of the history. And we have been, as Sanjay said, always a bit surprised in the recent years on how strong the fourth quarter has come in and driven second half to be a bit higher than first. So if you asked us today, we'd say first half is a little bit stronger than second, but that's no different than kind of what we thought for the last couple of years, too. And that just is a testament to the visibility in Q4 as -- the lack of visibility in Q4.

    你是對的,歷史的完美學生。正如桑傑所說,近年來,我們一直對第四季度的強勁表現感到有些驚訝,並推動下半年比第一季度略高。因此,如果您今天問我們,我們會說上半場比下半場強一點,但這與我們過去幾年的想法沒有什麼不同。這只是證明了第四季度的可見性——第四季度缺乏可見性。

  • As Sanjay said, though, it's a little bit more visibility now than before because lead times are a little longer. But all the upside that could come in is the, obviously, the piece that's not visible. So we feel probably better now about Q4 than we felt in any prior 2 or 3 years, but it's sort of what might happen between now and October that's invisible.

    不過,正如 Sanjay 所說,現在的知名度比以前要高一些,因為交貨時間要長一些。但顯然,所有可能帶來的好處是不可見的部分。因此,我們現在對第四季度的感覺可能比之前 2 或 3 年的感覺要好,但從現在到 10 月之間可能發生的事情是看不見的。

  • John William Pitzer - MD, Global Technology Strategist and Global Technology Sector Head

    John William Pitzer - MD, Global Technology Strategist and Global Technology Sector Head

  • That's helpful. And then, Mark, as my follow-on, I apologize, the audio quality was a little poor during your prepared comments. I wanted to go back to some of the commentary you made around DDR5 adoption. I think the point you were making is perhaps it's a little bit slower than you thought. Is that correct? And I guess, more importantly, can you give us an update of how you think you're positioned for DDR5 when it does start to ramp relative to share in memory test?

    這很有幫助。然後,馬克,作為我的後續,我很抱歉,在你準備好的評論中,音頻質量有點差。我想回到您對採用 DDR5 所做的一些評論。我認為您提出的觀點可能比您想像的要慢一些。那是對的嗎?而且我想,更重要的是,您能否向我們介紹一下您認為當 DDR5 相對於內存測試份額開始上升時您對 DDR5 的定位?

  • Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director

    Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Yes, sorry about the audio quality. But in fact, yes, DDR5 for server applications has pushed out a bit as the server chips themselves have been delayed. We've seen the impact of that in the demand for DDR5 testers. And similar things happened with LPDDR5 going into mobility applications. So despite all that, the share position for Teradyne, we think, is unchanged from our earlier estimates at around 40% of the market, and it's going to be a tailwind next year when the DDR5 and LPDDR5 ramp as was originally thought would happen toward the end of this year. So we're well positioned there, and I think that's a tailwind for us next year.

    是的。是的,對音頻質量感到抱歉。但事實上,是的,由於服務器芯片本身已經延遲,用於服務器應用的 DDR5 已經推出了一點。我們已經看到了這對 DDR5 測試儀需求的影響。類似的事情發生在 LPDDR5 進入移動應用中。因此,儘管如此,我們認為泰瑞達的市場份額與我們之前估計的大約 40% 的市場份額相比沒有變化,明年 DDR5 和 LPDDR5 的增長將是一個順風,正如最初認為的那樣今年年底。所以我們在那裡的位置很好,我認為這對我們明年來說是一個順風。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of C.J. Muse with Evercore.

    您的下一個問題來自 C.J. Muse with Evercore 的台詞。

  • Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • I guess first question, Mark, you've taken SOC test market size higher again. And I guess, curious, if we were to hit the high end of the range, what would be the driver there? And would your market share still be 48%? Or could you see greater contribution from what's driving potentially the market to the higher end of the range?

    我想第一個問題,馬克,你又把 SOC 測試市場規模擴大了。而且我想,好奇,如果我們要達到範圍的高端,那裡的司機會是什麼?你的市場份額還會是 48% 嗎?或者,您能否看到推動潛在市場走向高端的更大貢獻?

  • Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director

    Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Certainly, if the market goes up towards the high end of that range, our revenue would grow probably proportional to that. Would our share go much higher? I gave a number -- I threw in a number of roughly 48% at the midpoint of our market size guide. I would expect our market share is probably going to stay around that number, plus or minus 0.5 point at this point in the year.

    是的。當然,如果市場上升到該範圍的高端,我們的收入可能會與之成正比增長。我們的份額會更高嗎?我給出了一個數字——我在我們的市場規模指南的中點投入了大約 48% 的數字。我預計我們的市場份額可能會保持在這個數字左右,在今年這個時候正負 0.5 個百分點。

  • But it's hard to sort of prognosticate too much about where the share comes from. And as you know, one customer's buying capacity can swing multiple points of share in any given year. And so one of our customers could come in and drive a demand that we don't see right now. We have the manufacturing capacity to serve it. And yes, I guess we could be up at 50% share if that happened. It's just a little opaque at the moment.

    但很難對份額的來源做出過多預測。如您所知,一個客戶的購買能力在任何一年都可以擺動多個份額。因此,我們的一位客戶可能會進來並推動我們目前看不到的需求。我們有能力為它服務。是的,我想如果發生這種情況,我們的份額可能會上升到 50%。目前只是有點不透明。

  • Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • Okay. That's helpful. And I guess a follow-on question to a few of the questions that you got earlier. You spoke to DDR5 now being pushed to a tailwind next year. You've spoken to high-performance compute, particularly the non-x86 world as a tailwind for you guys next year. I think the concern out there is that your one large customer could decline meaningfully and that would cause SOC for you guys to be down next year. So I guess, as you sit here today and you're setting up your supply for customers and lead times have extended, how are you thinking about the world into 2022 for SOC for Teradyne?

    好的。這很有幫助。我猜想是您之前提出的一些問題的後續問題。您談到了 DDR5,明年將被推向順風。您已經談到了高性能計算,尤其是非 x86 世界,這對你們來說是明年的順風車。我認為你的一個大客戶可能會大幅下降,這將導致你們明年的 SOC 下降。所以我想,當您今天坐在這裡並且您正在為客戶設置供應並且交貨時間已經延長時,您如何看待 2022 年泰瑞達 SOC 的世界?

  • Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director

    Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director

  • Very bullish because I think the concern -- let's see, I'm not going to speak too specifically around our customer. But what I would say is that the portfolio of devices that are being developed by our hyperscaler customers continues to expand. And that's going to -- in addition to the complexity growth of the existing portfolio, you add more chips on top of that, it portends a growing market, a growing customer. So there's going to be ups and downs, but I think the cataclysmic or sort of a cliff concern, we're now a decade into this almost, so -- and it just hasn't happened. So the trend line, I think, is pretty clear, and I think that trend line will continue.

    非常看好,因為我認為擔心 - 讓我們看看,我不會太具體地談論我們的客戶。但我想說的是,我們的超大規模客戶正在開發的設備組合繼續擴大。這將 - 除了現有產品組合的複雜性增長之外,您還可以添加更多芯片,這預示著不斷增長的市場,不斷增長的客戶。所以會有起起落落,但我認為災難性的或類似懸崖的問題,我們現在已經接近十年了,所以 - 它只是沒有發生。因此,我認為趨勢線非常清晰,而且我認為趨勢線將繼續下去。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

    我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

  • Toshiya Hari - MD

    Toshiya Hari - MD

  • I had 2 as well. Mark, I guess somewhat related to C.J.'s question. Just curious in terms of the auto SOC test market, I think in your prepared remarks, you mentioned that you expect the market to exceed $500 million this year and now that's the highest mark since 2017. How are you thinking about sustainability there into '22? Near-term demand is clearly very strong. And when we speak with your customers, they're all kind of complaining about extending lead times. So I guess the bias is to the upside, but curious how you're thinking about that market.

    我也有2個。馬克,我想這與 C.J. 的問題有些相關。只是對汽車 SOC 測試市場感到好奇,我認為在您準備好的講話中,您提到您預計今年市場將超過 5 億美元,現在這是自 2017 年以來的最高水平。您如何看待 22 年的可持續性?近期需求顯然非常強勁。當我們與您的客戶交談時,他們都在抱怨延長交貨時間。所以我猜偏見是向上的,但很好奇你是如何看待這個市場的。

  • And then as a follow-up, a question on Storage Test. It seems like both HDD and SLT are trending very nicely. I think the business was up more than 2x last year in 2020. Curious what you're thinking about the business full year 2021. If you can differentiate between SLT and HDD, that would be super helpful.

    然後作為後續,關於存儲測試的問題。看起來 HDD 和 SLT 的趨勢非常好。我認為該業務在 2020 年增長了 2 倍以上。好奇您對 2021 年全年業務的看法。如果您能區分 SLT 和 HDD,那將非常有幫助。

  • Sanjay Mehta - CFO, VP & Treasurer

    Sanjay Mehta - CFO, VP & Treasurer

  • It's Sanjay here. So I'll take a cut at them. So from an auto market perspective, it's true this year, we've seen tremendous growth and just about $500 million or plus or minus a bit from a market size, and yes, as far as we've seen even back to 2017. And fundamentally, I think in the last call, there was commentary around the auto industry, for years, has lived on a just-in-time manufacturing. And fundamentally, in back half of 2019, sales weren't so high. And coming into '20, obviously, demand has really picked up. And so you're seeing just a significant replenishment of inventory back into the system. And we're seeing that continue. We see, obviously, the lead times. And currently, the demand is outstripping our supply. And we see that good visibility until the end of 2021.

    這裡是桑傑。所以我會削減他們。因此,從汽車市場的角度來看,今年確實出現了巨大的增長,市場規模只有大約 5 億美元或上下浮動,是的,就我們甚至可以追溯到 2017 年的情況而言。從根本上說,我認為在上次電話會議中,有關於汽車行業的評論,多年來,一直以準時制製造為生。從根本上說,在 2019 年下半年,銷售額並沒有那麼高。顯然,進入 20 世紀,需求確實有所回升。因此,您只會看到大量的庫存補充回系統中。我們看到這種情況還在繼續。顯然,我們看到了交貨時間。目前,需求超過了我們的供應。直到 2021 年底,我們才能看到這種良好的能見度。

  • 2022 will be interesting because we'll have to take a look at what are the inventory levels and what is the market demand in 2022 in first half. And so it's a little bit opaque, I'd say, in 2022, but it will depend on what I believe to be the inventory level and, obviously, the end market demand.

    2022 年會很有趣,因為我們必須看看 2022 年上半年的庫存水平和市場需求是多少。所以它有點不透明,我會說,在 2022 年,但這將取決於我認為的庫存水平,顯然,最終市場需求。

  • And from a storage perspective, a little bit of color around 2020 and 2021. If I go back to 2020, HDD and our SLT business was kind of split relatively even. One was a little bigger than the other. And from an HDD perspective, we've seen continued end-market demand fueling that business. But when we look into 2021 from an SLT perspective, we're seeing a broadening of devices being adopted for SLT testing, which is providing a tailwind, which is enabling a larger growth in that segment of the storage business this year relative to the HDD business.

    從存儲的角度來看,2020 年和 2021 年左右有點顏色。如果我回到 2020 年,HDD 和我們的 SLT 業務相對平分。一個比另一個大一點。從 HDD 的角度來看,我們已經看到終端市場的持續需求推動了該業務。但是,當我們從 SLT 的角度展望 2021 年時,我們看到 SLT 測試所採用的設備正在擴大,這提供了順風,這使得今年存儲業務的該部分相對於 HDD 實現了更大的增長商業。

  • So the HDD business is still very strong; end-market demand, very strong. But the broadening of the SLT -- or sorry, the ASICs being tested under SLT is increasing, which is really good news. So it's growing a little faster than the HDD shipments from a storage perspective.

    所以硬盤業務還是很強勁的;終端市場需求,非常強勁。但是 SLT 的擴展——或者抱歉,在 SLT 下測試的 ASIC 正在增加,這真是個好消息。因此,從存儲的角度來看,它的增長速度比 HDD 的出貨量要快一些。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri with UBS.

    您的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的蒂莫西·阿庫裡(Timothy Arcuri)。

  • Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment

    Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment

  • I had a question about your commentary, Mark, about your SOC share for the year and sort of what it implies for SOC in Q4, and more broadly, what it implies for total company revenue in Q4. So you've sort of given us all the different pieces. You guided wireless for the year, you guided systems for the year and you gave us the pieces on the Test businesses.

    我對你的評論有疑問,馬克,關於你今年的 SOC 份額,以及它對第四季度 SOC 的含義,更廣泛地說,它對第四季度公司總收入的含義。所以你給了我們所有不同的部分。你指導了這一年的無線,你指導了這一年的系統,你給了我們關於測試業務的部分。

  • So if I just look at what that implies for SOC in Q4, I mean you're going to do about $575 million roughly for SOC in Q3. That's not a big mystery. But the Q4 number implies it goes down to like $425 million, somewhere in the low 4s. That will be down year-over-year. So I guess my first question is like why would that be given that you have all this visibility? And obviously, you're quite bullish about the market. So why would Q4 be down so much? That's my first question in SOC.

    因此,如果我只看一下這對第四季度 SOC 的含義,我的意思是你將在第三季度為 SOC 做大約 5.75 億美元。這不是什麼大謎。但第四季度的數字意味著它下降到 4.25 億美元左右,處於低 4s 的某個位置。這將逐年下降。所以我想我的第一個問題是,為什麼要考慮到您擁有所有這些可見性?顯然,你對市場相當看好。那麼為什麼第四季度會下降這麼多呢?這是我在 SOC 的第一個問題。

  • Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director

    Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. I don't know if it will be down so much or not. It's a portfolio of businesses, and all of those numbers have a margin of plus or minus, let's say, 1% around them. So that creates a large Monte Carlo simulation. And if you go right down the middle, I think you probably -- I'm sure you did the math right, that's probably what you come up with.

    是的。不知道會不會跌這麼多。這是一個業務組合,所有這些數字都有正負的邊際,比如說,1% 左右。這樣就創建了一個大型的蒙特卡羅模擬。如果你從中間走,我想你可能 - 我相信你做對了,這可能就是你想出的。

  • But that's typical, as I said earlier, of where we stand at this point in the year looking into Q4 as in past years where it's come in higher. There's a significant unknown around what we'll book between now and through October that can drive Q4 shipments. And while we have backlog that extends in some product lines, as Sanjay mentioned, all the way through the end of the year, there's others that's more of a turns business.

    但正如我之前所說,這是我們在今年第四季度所處的位置的典型情況,就像過去幾年一樣,它的價格更高。從現在到 10 月,我們將預訂什麼可以推動第四季度的出貨量,還有一個重大的未知數。正如桑傑所說,雖然我們的一些產品線的積壓工作一直延伸到今年年底,但還有一些產品線更像是一個周轉業務。

  • And we've positioned ourselves to be very responsive on the SOC front, in general, to capitalize on these sort of short demand request to come from our customers. That's why we've in the past been enabled to, in the quarter, exceed our guidance and even in the fourth quarter and prior years exceed what we thought when we were talking back then in July.

    通常,我們已經將自己定位為在 SOC 方面非常敏感,以利用來自我們客戶的這類短期需求請求。這就是為什麼我們過去能夠在本季度超過我們的指導,甚至在第四季度和前幾年都超過了我們在 7 月份談論時的想法。

  • So it could very well turn out that the demand that we've seen in the last couple of years in Q4 yet materializes again and we end up, as C.J. was hinting at, having a second half larger than first. It's just that at this point in the year, given what customers are talking about, we just don't see that as the most likely outcome.

    因此,我們在過去幾年第四季度看到的需求很可能再次實現,正如 C.J. 暗示的那樣,我們最終的下半年比第一季度大。只是在今年的這個時候,鑑於客戶在談論什麼,我們只是不認為這是最有可能的結果。

  • And it's episodic, too. What happens in Q4, a lot of it happens, in the past couple of years, in the December quarter, preparing for product launches that occur in February time frame, new phones and things like that. And so -- and again, with a rash of phone introductions in February, although we don't see it now, we could see a demand for SOC testers to support that driving December shipments.

    它也是偶發的。第四季度發生的事情,很多事情發生在過去幾年中,在 12 月季度,為 2 月時間框架內發生的產品發布做準備,新手機和類似的事情。所以——再一次,隨著 2 月份手機的大量推出,雖然我們現在看不到,但我們可以看到對 SOC 測試人員的需求,以支持推動 12 月份的出貨量。

  • Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment

    Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment

  • Yes. No, it's -- I mean the total company revenue is sort of implied to be below what people are expecting for Q4, so that's kind of why I was asking.

    是的。不,它是——我的意思是,公司總收入有點低於人們對第四季度的預期,所以這就是我問的原因。

  • So anyway, on your revised TAM for Semi Test, so can you just update us on the segment? So I think before, you were thinking compute would be $1 billion, mobility would be $1.6 billion. Auto, you just gave that number, is like $500 million. And industrial, I think before, you were talking about $500 million. So is the revision mostly in the compute side, can you sort of update us on those numbers?

    所以無論如何,在你為半測試修改過的 TAM 上,你能更新我們的部分嗎?所以我之前認為,你認為計算將是 10 億美元,移動性將是 16 億美元。汽車,你剛剛給出的數字,大概是 5 億美元。而工業,我之前認為,你說的是 5 億美元。那麼修訂主要是在計算方面,你能告訴我們這些數字的最新情況嗎?

  • Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director

    Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. The numbers for compute are about the same. Mobility is probably up a couple of hundred million. Auto is up probably $50 million and industrial up about $50 million.

    是的。計算的數字大致相同。流動性可能增加了幾億。汽車可能上漲 5000 萬美元,工業上漲約 5000 萬美元。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Krish Sankar with Cowen.

    您的下一個問題來自與 Cowen 的 Krish Sankar 一行。

  • Krish Sankar - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Krish Sankar - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • And Mark, thanks for the color earlier on the ARM test opportunity. I just want to ask the question in a different way. When do you think the non-x86 compute TAM or maybe the total test compute TAM be similar or bigger than the mobility test market? And then I had a follow-up.

    還有馬克,感謝早些時候在 ARM 測試機會上的顏色。我只是想以不同的方式問這個問題。您認為非 x86 計算 TAM 或總測試計算 TAM 何時會與移動性測試市場相似或更大?然後我進行了跟進。

  • Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director

    Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director

  • Bigger than the mobility test. So your question is when will the ARM compute test TAM be bigger than the ARM mobility test TAM?

    比移動測試更大。所以你的問題是 ARM 計算測試 TAM 什麼時候會比 ARM 移動性測試 TAM 大?

  • Krish Sankar - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Krish Sankar - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Yes, mobility test TAM is about $1.6 billion or $1.7 billion, and you said compute is about $1 billion. When do you think the total compute TAM or maybe just the non-x86 compute TAM get to be bigger than mobility?

    是的,移動性測試 TAM 大約是 16 億美元或 17 億美元,你說計算大約是 10 億美元。您認為總計算 TAM 或僅非 x86 計算 TAM 何時會比移動性更大?

  • Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director

    Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director

  • I don't think it's going to be in the next 4 or 5 years. I think much of what's being developed in the ARM space by the hyperscalers will more likely fall into the category of mobility. So I don't see compute growing beyond mobility in the next 4 or 5 years.

    我不認為它會在未來 4 或 5 年內發生。我認為超大規模廠商在 ARM 領域開發的大部分內容更有可能屬於移動性範疇。因此,我認為未來 4 或 5 年內計算不會超越移動性。

  • Krish Sankar - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Krish Sankar - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Got it. Got it. And then, Mark, on the auto test market, you said it's over $500 million. I'm guessing that includes auto microcontroller, linear, et cetera. If that is the case, is there any way of giving some more color within that? Or you think it's too hard to segment it?

    知道了。知道了。然後,馬克,在汽車測試市場上,你說它超過 5 億美元。我猜這包括汽車微控制器、線性等。如果是這樣的話,有沒有辦法在其中提供更多顏色?或者你認為分割它太難了?

  • Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director

    Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes, it does include microcontrollers. And I would say that auto is outstripped -- most of the growth is auto more than microcontrollers. Microcontrollers is growing too, but it's mostly auto. Auto -- and of course, there's microcontrollers in auto. So when I say auto, I mean microcontrollers for auto versus microcontrollers, let's say, for white goods and things like that.

    是的,它確實包括微控制器。我會說汽車已經超過了——大部分增長是汽車而不是微控制器。微控制器也在增長,但主要是自動的。汽車——當然,汽車中有微控制器。因此,當我說汽車時,我指的是用於汽車的微控制器與用於白色家電之類的微控制器的對比。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your final question comes from the line of Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley.

    你的最後一個問題來自摩根士丹利的喬摩爾。

  • Joseph Lawrence Moore - Executive Director

    Joseph Lawrence Moore - Executive Director

  • I wanted to ask about the millimeter wave commentary. It seemed like the expectation was primarily one customer in one region. So when you say that was kind of short of your expectations, what are you referring to there?

    我想問一下毫米波評論。似乎期望主要是一個地區的一位客戶。所以當你說這有點低於你的期望時,你指的是什麼?

  • Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director

    Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director

  • So it's not one customer, one region. Millimeter wave last year for us grew significantly. We probably had 90% share of the early buying per millimeter wave test in 2020. And I would say that was spread out across 6 or 7 customers. Anybody who's making a chipset related to millimeter wave was pretty much using a Teradyne tester in 2020. The deployment of millimeter wave by the telecommunication companies has ground to a halt. And that has proportionately ground to a halt the need for incremental test in 2021.

    所以它不是一個客戶,一個地區。毫米波去年對我們來說增長顯著。在 2020 年每毫米波測試的早期購買中,我們可能佔據了 90% 的份額。我會說這分佈在 6 或 7 個客戶中。 2020 年,任何製造與毫米波相關的芯片組的人幾乎都在使用泰瑞達測試儀。電信公司對毫米波的部署已經停止。這相應地停止了在 2021 年進行增量測試的需要。

  • Andrew J. Blanchard - VP of Corporate Relations

    Andrew J. Blanchard - VP of Corporate Relations

  • Okay, folks, thanks so much for joining us today. That concludes the call. We apologize for the audio difficulties at the front end of it. We look forward to talking to you in the days and weeks ahead. And those in the queue, I'll get back with you directly here. Thank you.

    好的,伙計們,非常感謝您今天加入我們。這結束了通話。對於前端的音頻問題,我們深表歉意。我們期待在未來的幾天和幾週內與您交談。排隊的人,我會在這裡直接回复你。謝謝你。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation, and have a wonderful day. You may all disconnect.

    女士們,先生們,今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與,祝您有美好的一天。你們都可以斷開連接。