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Operator
Operator
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Q2 2021 Teradyne Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is not -- this conference call will resume -- I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Mr. Andy Blanchard.
各位女士、先生,早安,歡迎參加 Teradyne 2021 年第二季財報電話會議。(接線員指示)提醒各位,本次電話會議並非——本次電話會議將會恢復——現在我想把電話交給本次會議主持人 Andy Blanchard 先生。
Andrew J. Blanchard - VP of Corporate Relations
Andrew J. Blanchard - VP of Corporate Relations
Thank you, Phyllis. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our discussion of Teradyne's most recent financial results. I'm joined this morning by our CEO, Mark Jagiela; and our CFO, Sanjay Mehta.
謝謝你,Phyllis。各位早安,歡迎參加我們對 Teradyne 最新財務結果的討論。今天早上與我一同出席的有我們的執行長 Mark Jagiela,以及財務長 Sanjay Mehta。
Following our opening remarks, we'll provide details of our performance for 2021's second quarter along with our outlook for the third quarter of 2021. The press release containing our second quarter results was issued last [evening]. [We're providing slides] on the Investor page of the website that may be helpful to you when following the discussion. Replays of this call will be available via the same page after the call ends.
在開場致詞之後,我們將提供 2021 年第二季的表現細節,以及對 2021 年第三季的展望。包含第二季結果的新聞稿已於昨晚發布。[我們提供投影片]於本公司網站的投資人頁面,可能有助於您在聆聽討論時參考。本次電話會議結束後,亦可透過同一頁面取得重播。
Matters that we discuss today will include forward-looking statements that involve risk factors that could cause Teradyne's [results] to differ materially from management's current expectations. We encourage you to review the safe harbor statement contained in the earnings release as well as our most recent SEC filings. Additionally, those forward-looking statements are made as of today, and we take no obligation to update them as a result of developments occurring after this call.
我們今天討論的事項將包含前瞻性陳述,並涉及風險因素,可能導致 Teradyne 的[結果]與管理階層目前的預期出現重大差異。我們鼓勵您查閱財報新聞稿中的安全港聲明,以及我們最新的 SEC 申報文件。此外,這些前瞻性陳述係以今日為準,我們不承擔因本次電話會議後發生之發展而更新之義務。
During today's call, we'll make reference to non-GAAP [financial] measures. We've posted additional information concerning those non-GAAP financial measures, including reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and were available on the [Investor page] of our website.
在今天的電話會議中,我們將提及非 GAAP [財務]衡量指標。我們已張貼與這些非 GAAP 財務衡量指標相關的補充資訊,包括與最直接可比較之 GAAP 財務衡量指標的調節表,並已提供於本公司網站的[投資人頁面]。
Looking ahead between now and our next earnings call, Teradyne expects to participate in technology or industrial-focused investor conferences hosted by KeyBanc, Rosenblatt Securities, Deutsche Bank and Citi.
展望下一次財報電話會議之前,Teradyne 預期將參與由 KeyBanc、Rosenblatt Securities、Deutsche Bank 與 Citi 主辦、以科技或工業為主題的投資人研討會。
Now let's get on with the agenda. First, Mark will comment on our recent results and the market conditions as we enter the new quarter. Sanjay will then offer more details on our quarterly results along with our guidance for the third quarter. We'll then answer your questions, and this call is scheduled for [1 hour].
現在進入議程。首先,Mark 將就我們近期的結果以及進入新季度時的市場狀況發表評論。接著 Sanjay 將提供更多季度結果細節以及第三季的財測指引。之後我們將回答各位的問題,本次電話會議預計為[1 小時]。
Mark?
Mark?
Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director
Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director
Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. Today, I'll summarize our results for the second quarter and first half of 2021, update on current conditions in both Test and Industrial Automation, and comment on our view for the second half of the year. Sanjay will then provide the financial details on the quarter and our guidance for Q3.
各位早安,感謝各位加入。今天我將總結 2021 年第二季與上半年的結果,更新測試(Test)與工業自動化(Industrial Automation)兩大業務的現況,並說明我們對下半年的看法。接著 Sanjay 將提供本季的財務細節以及我們對第三季(Q3)的指引。
The strong demand we saw in Q1 accelerated in Q2 as both our Test and Industrial Automation groups grew substantially in the quarter. The long-term demand drivers we've discussed in the past continue to power demand for our products. In Test, it's device complexity and unit growth; in Automation, it's labor scarcity, the need for resiliency and productivity improvement.
我們在第一季看到的強勁需求在第二季進一步加速,因為測試與工業自動化兩個事業群在本季皆大幅成長。我們過去討論過的長期需求驅動因素持續推動對我們產品的需求。在測試方面,是裝置複雜度提升與出貨量成長;在自動化方面,則是勞動力短缺、對韌性(resiliency)的需求以及生產力提升。
Opening further, performance at the company level from 2016 through 2020 saw our sales and non-GAAP EPS grow at a compounded rate of 16% and 32%, respectively. For the first half of this year, sales are running ahead of that rate at 21%, and non-GAAP earnings per share grew at 29% compared with last year. This demonstrates both the [vitality] of the markets we serve and the efficiency of our operating model.
進一步說明,從 2016 年到 2020 年,公司層級的表現顯示,我們的營收與非 GAAP 每股盈餘(EPS)分別以 16% 與 32% 的複合成長率成長。今年上半年,營收成長率達到 21%,高於該水準;非 GAAP 每股盈餘相較去年成長 29%。這展現了我們所服務市場的[活力]以及我們營運模式的效率。
Significantly, in Q2, we saw Industrial Automation demand recover in all major regions, but particularly in North America. As a result, our production and [operating teams] operated at a high pace in Q2, and that pace is [increasing] in Q3. For the year, our IA business is on track to grow about 30% from 2019 and about 40% from 2020.
值得注意的是,在第二季,我們看到工業自動化在所有主要地區的需求皆回升,尤其是北美。因此,我們的生產與[營運團隊]在第二季以高節奏運作,而這個節奏在第三季仍在[提升]。以全年來看,我們的 IA 業務可望較 2019 年成長約 30%,較 2020 年成長約 40%。
Looking closely at the segment level. In Semi Test, SOC shipments grew 29% in Q2 from Q2 of 2020 with particular strength in both the compute and mobility end markets. For the first half, SOC sales grew 19%. For the first time in several years, smartphone unit shipments are helping growth in the mobility [segment], where as recent years have mostly relied on complexity growth.
更細看事業群層級。在半導體測試(Semi Test)方面,SOC 出貨量在第二季較 2020 年第二季成長 29%,其中以運算(compute)與行動(mobility)終端市場表現特別強勁。上半年 SOC 銷售成長 19%。這是數年來首次,智慧型手機的出貨量成長正在帶動行動[區隔]的成長;而近年多半仰賴的是複雜度提升所帶來的成長。
[IA] and compute are the 2 largest subsegments in SOC. Automotive, analog and industrial demand continues to be strong. The auto-related semi test market is expected to exceed $500 million this year, the highest level since 2017. This is despite the fact that automobile unit production will be about (inaudible) lower in 2017 -- lower than 2017. A portion of this strength is test equipment. We're also seeing the impact of increased semi content and complexity per automobile, driving the test market.
[IA] 與運算(compute)是 SOC 兩個最大的子區隔。汽車、類比與工業需求仍然強勁。預期今年汽車相關的半導體測試市場將超過 5 億美元,為 2017 年以來最高水準。即便如此,汽車整體單位產量將約較 2017 年(聽不清)更低——低於 2017 年。這股強勁動能的一部分來自測試設備。我們也看到每輛車的半導體含量與複雜度提升所帶來的影響,進一步推動測試市場。
Our memory test shipments also grew in Q2 from Q2 of 2020, up 9%, led by flash tester demand. For the 6-month period, overall shipments were up 18% from last year on solid demand for both flash wafer and [flash] systems. This reflects significant growth in smartphone demand, the build-out of new memory capacity in China and the growth of SSD demand.
我們的記憶體測試出貨在第二季也較 2020 年第二季成長 9%,主要由快閃記憶體(flash)測試機需求帶動。以 6 個月期間來看,整體出貨量較去年成長 18%,反映快閃晶圓(flash wafer)與[flash]系統的穩健需求。這反映了智慧型手機需求的顯著成長、中國新記憶體產能的建置,以及 SSD 需求的成長。
Looking at the full year, we are again revising up the SOC market for 2021 to now be in the range of $4.3 billion to $4.7 billion with increasing strength in the x86 GPU and display driver segments. Recall that we have lower customer exposure in those markets with much of this incremental growth going to our competitors. So we'll likely see our SOC share around 48% for the year.
就全年而言,我們再次上修 2021 年 SOC 市場規模預估,現在落在 43 億至 47 億美元區間,且在 x86 GPU 與顯示驅動(display driver)區隔的強勁程度持續提升。請記得,我們在這些市場的客戶曝險較低,因此這部分新增成長多數將流向競爭對手。所以我們今年的 SOC 市占率可能約在 48% 左右。
In memory, at the macro level, our market estimates are unchanged with the test market this year expected to be about $1 billion and our share to be at about the 40% level. I will note that the expected ramp of DDR5 for server applications and the broader adoption of LPDDR5 is pushing out into 2022.
在記憶體方面,從總體層級來看,我們的市場預估維持不變:今年測試市場預期約 10 億美元,我們的市占率約在 40% 水準。我也要指出,原先預期用於伺服器應用的 DDR5 放量,以及 LPDDR5 的更廣泛採用,正延後到 2022 年。
Shifting to our System Test group, sales were up 26% in the first half compared with 2020, with strong Storage Test demand and a recovery in our Production Board Test unit driving the growth. For the full year, we see System Test group -- the System Test group grow in the 10% to 20% range.
接著談系統測試(System Test)事業群:上半年銷售額較 2020 年成長 26%,其中強勁的儲存測試(Storage Test)需求,以及我們生產板測試(Production Board Test)單位的復甦,帶動了成長。就全年而言,我們預期系統測試事業群將成長約 10% 至 20%。
At LitePoint, sales in Q2 were up 12% over 2Q 2020. While 5G millimeter wave demand is lower than expected, the environment in Wireless Test is improving as we move through the year due to the continued WiFi 6 growth and early WiFi 7 investments. In addition, ultra-wideband adoption is increasing, adding a new growth vector for LitePoint. For the full year, LitePoint will likely grow in the 10% range.
在 LitePoint 方面,第二季銷售額較 2020 年第二季成長 12%。雖然 5G 毫米波需求低於預期,但隨著年度推進,無線測試(Wireless Test)的環境正在改善,原因在於 WiFi 6 持續成長以及 WiFi 7 的早期投資。此外,超寬頻(ultra-wideband)的採用正在增加,為 LitePoint 增添新的成長向量。就全年而言,LitePoint 可能成長約 10% 左右。
Moving on to Industrial Automation. The combination of expanding demand across our major markets and the increase in the range of tests served by our Universal Robots and MiR units drove group sales up 57% in Q2 last year [to 45%] in the first half. Compared to pre-pandemic 2019, first half sales are up 22%. Supply chain issues have constrained growth a little bit with lead times pushing out about 1 week.
再來談工業自動化。由於我們主要市場的需求擴大,以及 Universal Robots 與 MiR 產品所涵蓋的測試範圍增加,帶動該事業群第二季銷售額較去年成長 57%,上半年成長[至 45%]。與疫情前的 2019 年相比,上半年銷售額成長 22%。供應鏈問題對成長造成些許限制,交期延後約 1 週。
The demand environment for IA has recovered in most regions from last year's slowdown. America was the fastest-growing major region in Q2 with sales up over 90% from last year. Although we did see a (inaudible) some countries in Asia where COVID has spiked in recent months, the second half of the year outlook is quite strong in all our major regions.
IA 的需求環境在多數地區已從去年的放緩中復甦。美洲在第二季是成長最快的主要地區,銷售額較去年成長超過 90%。雖然我們確實看到亞洲部分國家在近幾個月 COVID 再度升溫而出現(聽不清),但下半年在所有主要地區的展望都相當強勁。
Our long-term growth strategy in IA continues unchanged, and we expect long-term annual growth in the 20% to 35% range. This year, we will likely have a growth of about 40% from 2020, and we will continue to invest to enable this growth target of [15%] gross margins, [get] a 5% to 15% operating margin during these high-growth years.
我們在 IA 的長期成長策略維持不變,並預期長期年成長率可落在 20% 至 35% 區間。今年我們相較 2020 年可能成長約 40%,且我們將持續投資以支撐此成長目標,目標為[15%]毛利率,並在這些高成長年度達成 5% 至 15% 的營業利益率。
From an investment perspective, we are expanding our engineering programs to shorten deployment times, increase the served market and improve the customer support experience. We are also growing our capacity to support distributors, integrators and UR plus and MiRGo apps development partners as [they] engage customers. We are also expanding our sales to OEMs that integrate our robots into their products.
從投資角度來看,我們正在擴大工程計畫,以縮短部署時間、擴大可服務市場,並改善客戶支援體驗。我們也在擴充產能,以支援經銷商、系統整合商,以及 UR+ 與 MiRGo 應用程式開發合作夥伴在[他們]接觸客戶時的需求。我們也正在擴大對 OEM 的銷售,這些 OEM 會將我們的機器人整合到其產品中。
Last quarter, we noted the expanding range of applications for UR robots into the high-voltage line application with hundreds of (inaudible) being deployed. Today, I'd like to highlight the success of UR+ plug-and-play applications for Industrial [Automation].There is a long-standing and chronic shortage of qualified welders worldwide with an estimated 100,000 unfilled welding jobs in the U.S. alone. While automated solutions exist for large applications like auto manufacturing, customers with lower volume and higher mix products are not well served by traditional automation.
上一季,我們提到 UR 機器人的應用範圍正在擴大,已延伸至高壓電力線應用,並已部署數百台(聽不清)。今天,我想重點介紹 UR+ 即插即用的工業[自動化]應用所取得的成功。全球長期且持續缺乏合格焊工,僅美國就估計有 10 萬個焊接職缺未能補足。雖然汽車製造等大型應用已有自動化解決方案,但對於產量較低、產品組合更高混合的客戶而言,傳統自動化並未能很好地滿足其需求。
The integration of a force torque sensor into e-Series cobots enabled the precision needed for this application. And with UR+ [integrating] with our partners, we began serving this market about 3 years ago. During this time, welding applications have grown to be about 6% of our global [sales]and are on (inaudible) 1,000 cobots sold in 2021, more than tripling our 2020 pace.
將力矩感測器整合至 e-Series 協作機器人,使其具備此應用所需的精準度。並且透過 UR+ 與合作夥伴[整合],我們約在 3 年前開始服務這個市場。在此期間,焊接應用已成長至約占我們全球[銷售]的 6%,且在(聽不清)2021 年售出 1,000 台協作機器人,較 2020 年的速度增加逾三倍。
As we continue to extend the performance of our UR platform, we expect these high applications had growth vectors to traditional industrial applications. We have similar market-expanding initiatives in play on our MiR platform, but I'll save those details for a future call.
隨著我們持續延伸 UR 平台的效能,我們預期這些高應用將成為傳統工業應用的成長向量。我們在 MiR 平台上也有類似的市場擴張計畫正在推進,但相關細節我將留待未來的電話會議再說明。
Summing it all up, the first half of the year has been a strong sales, strong gross margins and earnings growth (inaudible). Longer term, the markets we serve are showing [increasing demand] in a future global economy. The importance, pervasiveness and enabling capability of electronics in every [aspect] of our lives and industry is driving more fab investment, more complexity and more test. Likewise, the broadening application and fast [ROI of] [collaborative] robots in a world with labor shortages and productivity challenges is another growth trend.
總結而言,今年上半年呈現強勁的銷售、強勁的毛利率與獲利成長(聽不清)。從長期來看,我們所服務的市場在未來全球經濟中展現[日益增加的需求]。電子產品在我們生活與產業各個[面向]的重要性、普及性與賦能能力,正推動更多晶圓廠投資、更高的複雜度以及更多測試。同樣地,在勞動力短缺與生產力挑戰的環境下,[協作]機器人的應用擴大與快速[投資報酬率(ROI)]也是另一項成長趨勢。
Strategically, we positioned ourselves in line with (inaudible) and plan to continue to make [System] Test and IA as our full potential while driving world-class [returns]. While the rate of change in our markets is accelerating, we are well positioned to thrive as a company and to bring additional value to customers and shareholders.
在策略上,我們已使自身定位與(聽不清)一致,並計畫持續充分發揮[系統]測試與 IA 的全部潛力,同時推動世界級[報酬]。儘管我們市場的變化速度正在加快,我們仍具備良好定位,能夠作為一家公司蓬勃發展,並為客戶與股東帶來更多價值。
I'll now turn things over to Sanjay [to provide] additional color on the financials.
接下來我把時間交給 Sanjay,請他就財務表現提供更多說明。
Sanjay Mehta - CFO, VP & Treasurer
Sanjay Mehta - CFO, VP & Treasurer
Thank you, Mark. Good morning, everyone. Today, I'll [provide details] on our Q2 results, comment on current business conditions and describe [our outlook for] Q3.
謝謝你,Mark。各位早安。今天我將[提供細節]說明我們第二季(Q2)的結果,評論目前的業務狀況,並描述我們對第三季(Q3)的[展望]。
Now to Q2. Second quarter sales were $1.086 billion with non-GAAP EPS of $1.91, up 29% and 44%, respectively, from Q2 '20. Non-GAAP gross margins were 59.6%, and our non-GAAP operating expenses were $250 million, but $5 million below the high guidance due to the timing of some nonrecurring engineering expenses.
接著談 Q2。第二季營收為 10.86 億美元,非 GAAP 每股盈餘(EPS)為 1.91 美元,分別較 2020 年第二季成長 29% 與 44%。非 GAAP 毛利率為 59.6%,非 GAAP 營業費用為 2.50 億美元,但因部分一次性工程費用的認列時點因素,較指引上緣低 500 萬美元。
Non-GAAP operating profit rate was 36.5%. [Gross margin] in the quarter was [59.6%] compared with our plan of 58%. The increase was tied to favorable product mix in the quarter versus planned.
非 GAAP 營業利益率為 36.5%。本季[毛利率]為[59.6%],高於我們 58% 的計畫。提升主要與本季產品組合較原先規劃更有利相關。
For context, Q2 2020 gross margin was approximately [56.2%]. In April (inaudible), we noted that this level of gross margin would continue in the near term, driven by the introduction of several key test systems in early 2020, which would [take several] quarters to come down the cost curve. These new product introductions, coupled with heightened costs driven by COVID shortages, were impacting our gross margins in 2020. One year later, we have now most of these test solutions at volume, and they have come down the cost curve as expected.
作為背景,2020 年第二季毛利率約為[56.2%]。在 4 月(聽不清),我們提到這樣的毛利率水準在短期內仍會持續,原因是 2020 年初推出數個關鍵測試系統,成本需要[數個]季度才能沿著成本曲線下降。這些新產品導入,加上 COVID 造成的短缺所帶來的成本上升,影響了我們 2020 年的毛利率。一年後,這些測試解決方案多數已進入量產,且如預期般沿成本曲線下降。
The result contributed to higher margins in the second quarter, which we expect will continue in the second half of the year. A component of gross margin improvement over 2020 is higher revenue yielding of leverage in the gross margin line. We had one 10% customer in the quarter (inaudible) excluding discrete items of [14.5%]on both GAAP and non-GAAP basis.
其結果促成第二季更高的毛利率,我們預期此趨勢將延續至下半年。相較 2020 年,毛利率改善的一部分來自較高營收帶來的規模效益,反映在毛利率項目上。本季我們有一位占比 10% 的客戶(聽不清);在 GAAP 與非 GAAP 基礎下,排除離散項目後為[14.5%]。
Looking at the results from a business unit perspective. [Semi Test] revenue of $834 million was up 27% from Q2 2020. SOC revenue was $742 million, up 29%, driven by strength in compute, mobility, industrial and automotive. Memory revenue was $92 million, up 9% from prior year, driven by strength in flash test and flash wafer sort segments.
從事業單位角度來看結果。[半導體測試(Semi Test)]營收為 8.34 億美元,較 2020 年第二季成長 27%。SoC 營收為 7.42 億美元,成長 29%,主要受惠於運算、行動、工業與車用需求強勁。記憶體營收為 9,200 萬美元,較去年成長 9%,主要由快閃記憶體測試與快閃晶圓分選(flash wafer sort)區隔的強勁需求帶動。
System Test group had revenue of $105 million, which was up 46% year-over-year. This is driven by $58 million in Storage Test sales, including both HDD and SLT solutions; [$27 million] in Defense & Aerospace and Production Board Test.
系統測試(System Test)事業群營收為 1.05 億美元,年增 46%。其中包括 5,800 萬美元的儲存測試(Storage Test)銷售,涵蓋 HDD 與 SLT 解決方案;以及[2,700 萬美元]的國防與航太(Defense & Aerospace)與生產板測試(Production Board Test)。
In Storage Test, HDD and SLT demand remains robust as drive densities continue to increase and the number of devices adopting [SLT spokes]. At LitePoint, revenue of $55 million was 12% -- was up 12% from prior year due to continued strength at [WiFi], increases in (inaudible) and ultra-wide band test market segments.
在儲存測試方面,隨著硬碟密度持續提升,以及採用[SLT spokes]的裝置數量增加,HDD 與 SLT 的需求仍然強勁。在 LitePoint,營收為 5,500 萬美元,較去年成長 12%,主要因[WiFi]持續強勁、(聽不清)增加,以及超寬頻(ultra-wide band)測試市場區隔的成長。
Now to Industrial Automation. As we did in April, I'll provide revenue metrics comparing Q2 '21 results with both Q2 '20 and Q2 '19, so you'll have the full context given the impact of a contracting market tied to COVID last year. Industrial Automation revenue of $92 million was up 57% year-over-year and 23% over Q2 '19. Revenue expanded in all regions in Q2 [over] last year, with North America delivering the highest absolute revenue growth. U.S. and Europe represented about 77% of IA revenue in the quarter, with China contributing about 14%.
接著談工業自動化(Industrial Automation)。如同我們在 4 月所做的,我將提供營收指標,將 2021 年第二季結果同時與 2020 年第二季及 2019 年第二季比較,讓各位在去年 COVID 導致市場收縮的影響下,能掌握完整脈絡。工業自動化營收為 9,200 萬美元,年增 57%,較 2019 年第二季成長 23%。第二季各地區營收相較去年皆擴張,其中北美帶來最高的絕對營收成長。本季 IA 營收中,美國與歐洲合計約占 77%,中國約占 14%。
UR sales were $76 million in Q2, up 75% year-over-year and [80%] over 2019. MiR sales were $16 million, up 41% from Q2 '20 and 51% from Q2 '19. Recall, MiR had an (inaudible) on Q2 '20 as its robots were widely deployed in automated COVID disinfectant applications.
UR 第二季銷售額為 7,600 萬美元,年增 75%,較 2019 年成長[80%]。MiR 銷售額為 1,600 萬美元,較 2020 年第二季成長 41%,較 2019 年第二季成長 51%。請記得,MiR 在 2020 年第二季有(聽不清),因其機器人被廣泛部署於自動化 COVID 消毒應用。
The longer-term outlook in our IA business continues to brighten. We expect continued labor shortages to drive new applications for both our fixed and mobile robots. Mark highlighted the shortage of welders and how that has opened up a new market for our UR cobots, but that is just one of many job categories with acute short-term and long-term labor shortages.
我們 IA 業務的長期展望持續改善。我們預期持續的勞動力短缺將推動固定式與移動式機器人的新應用。Mark 提到焊工短缺以及這如何為我們的 UR 協作機器人開啟新市場,但這只是眾多在短期與長期都面臨嚴重人力短缺的職類之一。
Our strategy is to provide an open platform that creative developers can leverage to solve industry-specific labor shortages. The numerous filling ultraviolet disinfecting solutions built on our [platform] last year is a shining example of the agility of our partner networks to solve problems.
我們的策略是提供一個開放平台,讓具創意的開發者能加以運用,以解決各產業特定的人力短缺問題。去年建立在我們[平台]上的眾多紫外線消毒解決方案,就是合作夥伴網路具備敏捷性、能解決問題的亮眼例證。
We're investing in engineering, support and marketing resources to make our MiR platforms even easier to build upon, which will enable the continued proliferation of high-value automated solutions to solve challenging problems for an expanding range of customers. Significantly, these development partners and customers provide great feedback on our R&D development plans.
我們正投入工程、支援與行銷資源,讓 MiR 平台更容易被用來開發,這將促使高價值自動化解決方案持續擴散,協助更廣泛的客戶群解決具挑戰性的問題。重要的是,這些開發夥伴與客戶也為我們的研發規劃提供了很好的回饋。
From a financial perspective, we expect IA will operate around the low end of our target profit range of 5% and 15%. We do expect IA to operate above the Rule of 40 in 2021, that is the sum of operating profit and revenue growth of over [40%]. Longer term, when growth moderates, we expect the IA group to have a similar operating profit rate as our Test portfolio.
從財務角度來看,我們預期 IA 的營運將落在目標獲利區間 5% 至 15% 的低端。我們確實預期 IA 在 2021 年將高於「40 法則」(Rule of 40),也就是營業利益率與營收成長率之和超過[40%]。長期而言,當成長趨緩時,我們預期 IA 事業群的營業利益率將與我們的測試(Test)產品組合相近。
Shifting to supply. We continue to manage through numerous supply constraints along with increased material, manufacturing and logistics costs in both our Test and IA businesses. For some products in both Test and IA, the supply constraints have extended our [lead times], and we're working closely with customers to minimize the impact of these delays.
接著談供應。我們在測試與 IA 業務中,持續因應多項供應限制,以及材料、製造與物流成本上升。對於測試與 IA 的部分產品,供應限制已拉長我們的[交期],我們正與客戶密切合作,以將延遲影響降至最低。
But we've been able to offset these higher costs through operating leverage with higher volumes and other cost-saving measures, so the cost increase impact on the P&L has not been material. We do expect to be dealing with supply line-related issues in Q3 and Q4 this year, which are reflected in our forecasts.
但我們已能透過更高出貨量帶來的營運槓桿與其他節成本措施,抵銷這些較高成本,因此成本上升對損益表(P&L)的影響並不重大。我們確實預期今年第三季與第四季仍將面臨與供應鏈相關的問題,並已反映在我們的預測中。
Shifting to the balance sheet and cash flow. Our cash and marketable securities at the end of the quarter totaled $1.42 billion, $172 million of free cash flow in the quarter, $151 million and $17 million on buybacks and dividends, respectively. Year-to-date, we've repurchased 1.6 million shares for $197 million at an average [price] of $125.69 per share.
接著談資產負債表與現金流。本季末我們的現金與有價證券合計為 14.2 億美元;本季自由現金流為 1.72 億美元;用於庫藏股回購與股利分別為 1.51 億美元與 1,700 萬美元。今年迄今,我們已以 1.97 億美元回購 160 萬股,平均[價格]為每股 125.69 美元。
Regarding our convertible debt. $15.6 million was paid in Q2 to convertible bondholders ahead of maturity. By the end of August 2021, bondholders will have already converted a total of $302 million, leaving a face value of $58 million outstanding.
關於我們的可轉換債務。我們在第二季於到期前向可轉換公司債持有人支付了1,560萬美元。截至2021年8月底,債券持有人將已累計轉換3.02億美元,剩餘未償還面額為5,800萬美元。
Looking at our operating model, I'd like to make 3 quick points. First, our performance over time. From 10 years ago, our gross margin percent has expanded from the low to [mid-50s] to nearly 60% [today] and our operating margin from the teens to low 20s to greater than 30% today.
從我們的營運模式來看,我想快速提出3點。第一,我們長期以來的表現。相較於10年前,我們的毛利率已從50%出頭到[50%中段]擴張至[今日]接近60%,而營業利益率則從10%多到20%出頭提升至今日超過30%。
Second, our flexible business model shifts fixed cost to variable costs where appropriate through [contract] or outsourced manufacturing, variable compensation and other [means], which enables resiliency on the downside and is creative (sic) [accretive] when business is strong.
第二,我們具彈性的商業模式會在適當情況下,透過[合約]或委外製造、變動薪酬及其他[方式],將固定成本轉為變動成本,使我們在景氣下行時更具韌性,且在業務強勁時具有創造性(原文如此)[增益性]。
Third, the operating leverage in the model is evident in our Q2 results. Our Test businesses are dropping through over $0.50 per revenue dollar through to the profit line in 2021...
第三,該模式的營運槓桿在我們第二季的結果中顯而易見。我們的測試業務在2021年每增加1美元營收,就有超過0.50美元流入至獲利端……
Operator
Operator
(technical difficulty)
(技術問題)
Sanjay Mehta - CFO, VP & Treasurer
Sanjay Mehta - CFO, VP & Treasurer
Thank you.
謝謝。
Andrew J. Blanchard - VP of Corporate Relations
Andrew J. Blanchard - VP of Corporate Relations
Ladies and gentlemen, we're going to have a quick transition.
各位女士先生,我們將快速轉換一下。
Sanjay Mehta - CFO, VP & Treasurer
Sanjay Mehta - CFO, VP & Treasurer
I'll go back -- okay, it's Sanjay again. I'll go back to looking at our operating model. I'd like to make 3 quick points. First, our performance over time from 10 years ago, our gross margin percent has expanded from low to mid-50s to nearly 60% today and our operating margin from the teens to low 20s to greater than 30% today.
我會回到——好,又是Sanjay。我回到我們的營運模式。我想快速提出3點。第一,我們長期以來的表現。相較於10年前,我們的毛利率已從50%出頭到50%中段擴張至今日接近60%,而營業利益率則從10%多到20%出頭提升至今日超過30%。
Second, our flexible business model shifts fixed cost to variable costs, where appropriate, through contract or outsourced manufacturing, variable compensation and other means, which enables resiliency on the downside and is accretive when business is strong.
第二,我們具彈性的商業模式會在適當情況下,透過合約或委外製造、變動薪酬及其他方式,將固定成本轉為變動成本,使我們在景氣下行時更具韌性,且在業務強勁時具有增益性。
Third, the operating leverage in the model is evident in our Q2 results. Our Test businesses are dropping through over $0.50 per revenue dollar through to the profit line in 2021, even while we continue to increase our R&D support -- and support investments to strengthen our Test business. This enables Teradyne to continue to invest in both our Test and IA portfolios. For IA, we are building a deeper product ecosystem and distribution differentiation while achieving the Rule of 40 in our IA portfolio.
第三,該模式的營運槓桿在我們第二季的結果中顯而易見。我們的測試業務在2021年每增加1美元營收,就有超過0.50美元流入至獲利端,即使我們仍持續提高研發支援——以及支援性投資以強化我們的測試業務。這使Teradyne能持續投資於我們的測試與IA產品組合。就IA而言,我們在打造更深的產品生態系與差異化的通路,同時在IA產品組合中達成40法則(Rule of 40)。
Now to our outlook for Q3. As Mark noted, the demand environment across the business remains strong. Our guidance assumes no significant changes, positive or negative, in the availability of materials and also assumes that we won't see additional pandemic-related issues. With that said, sales in Q3 are expected to be between $880 million and $960 million with non-GAAP EPS in the range of $1.29 to $1.55 and 176 million diluted shares.
接著談我們對第三季的展望。如Mark所提,整體業務的需求環境仍然強勁。我們的指引假設材料供應的可得性不會出現重大變化(無論正面或負面),也假設不會看到額外與疫情相關的問題。在此前提下,第三季銷售額預期介於8.80億至9.60億美元之間,非GAAP每股盈餘(EPS)介於1.29至1.55美元,稀釋後股數為1.76億股。
Third quarter guidance excludes the amortization of acquired intangibles and noncash imputed interest on convertible debt. Third quarter gross margins are estimated to be between 59% and 60%. OpEx is expected to run at 27% to 29% of third quarter sales. The non-GAAP operating profit at the midpoint of our third quarter guidance is 32%.
第三季指引不包含併購取得無形資產的攤銷,以及可轉換債務的非現金推算利息。第三季毛利率估計介於59%至60%。營業費用(OpEx)預期約為第三季銷售額的27%至29%。以第三季指引中點計算,非GAAP營業利益率為32%。
Regarding OpEx for the full year. While we spent a bit lower than planned in Q2, we expect the full year OpEx will be about in line with the plan we described in April. We expect total operating expenses for 2021 to be about $1 billion or up approximately 19% from 2020. We recognize that we're on track to meet our 2024 earnings model this year. We'll update the model on a regular cadence in January after our detailed midterm plan income is complete in Q4 this year.
關於全年營業費用。雖然我們第二季的支出略低於原先規劃,但我們預期全年營業費用將大致符合我們在4月所描述的計畫。我們預期2021年總營業費用約為10億美元,較2020年增加約19%。我們也認知到,我們今年有望達成2024年的獲利模型。我們將在今年第四季完成更詳細的中期計畫損益後,於明年1月以固定節奏定期更新該模型。
In summary, our businesses are performing extremely well, delivering strong revenue and earnings growth while funding the investments that will drive future success. Our first half sales grew 21%, and non-GAAP EPS grew 29% above the first half of 2020, which itself was a record. We expect to deliver the highest Q3 sales and profits in history.
總結來說,我們的各項業務表現極佳,在挹注推動未來成功所需投資的同時,帶來強勁的營收與獲利成長。我們上半年銷售額成長21%,非GAAP EPS較2020年上半年成長29%,而2020年上半年本身就已是創紀錄。我們預期將創下史上最高的第三季銷售與獲利。
Our employees and production partners around the world have delivered a record number of systems under challenging conditions. Our support teams have done whatever was needed to make our customers successful. And our engineering teams have kept the new product pipeline moving on schedule. It's been an impressive display of teamwork, and I'm proud to be part of this powerful Teradyne team.
在充滿挑戰的條件下,我們遍布全球的員工與生產合作夥伴交付了創紀錄數量的系統。我們的支援團隊竭盡所能協助客戶成功。而我們的工程團隊也讓新產品管線按計畫推進。這是一場令人印象深刻的團隊合作展現,我很自豪能成為這支強大的Teradyne團隊的一員。
With that, I'll turn things back to Andrew.
接下來,我把時間交還給Andrew。
Andrew J. Blanchard - VP of Corporate Relations
Andrew J. Blanchard - VP of Corporate Relations
Thanks, Sanjay. And everybody, thanks for dealing with our small technical issue there. Phyllis, we would now like to take some questions. (Operator Instructions)
謝謝,Sanjay。各位,也謝謝大家包容我們剛才的小技術問題。Phyllis,我們現在想開始提問。(接線員指示)
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Brian Chin with Stifel.
(接線員指示)第一個問題來自Stifel的Brian Chin。
Brian Edward Chin - Associate
Brian Edward Chin - Associate
A couple of questions here. Maybe just to kick things off. I'm just curious to what degree, if any, are the extended lead times in ATE in this sort of the current strong semiconductor environment impacting your shipment outlook or pattern in the second half? Obviously, Teradyne no longer discloses bookings, but your competitor appears to be building backlog into the December quarter. So I was wondering if you have better-than-typical backlog visibility beyond September.
我這裡有幾個問題,先從一個開始。我想了解一下,在目前半導體景氣強勁的環境下,ATE交期拉長在多大程度上(如果有的話)會影響你們下半年出貨展望或出貨節奏?顯然Teradyne已不再揭露接單數據,但你們的競爭對手似乎正在把積壓訂單(backlog)累積到12月季度。所以我想問,你們是否在9月之後有比以往更好的積壓訂單能見度?
Sanjay Mehta - CFO, VP & Treasurer
Sanjay Mehta - CFO, VP & Treasurer
Yes. So lead times have definitely been moving out. I'd say auto and industrial demand is still outstripping supply. But our lead times have pushed out, obviously, based on the very, very tight supply chain environment we're dealing with. And so what used to be, let's say, within a quarter has pushed out to 5, 8 weeks incremental to where we were in the past to be, in some cases, in the 20s in weeks of lead time. So with that, we have been seeing, I guess, improved bookings from our customers, and we're working with them to manage through it.
是的。交期確實一直在拉長。我會說汽車與工業需求仍然供不應求。但在我們所面臨非常、非常緊繃的供應鏈環境下,我們的交期顯然被推遲了。過去可能在一個季度內就能交付的,現在相較以往又往後推了5到8週;在某些情況下,交期甚至達到20多週。因此,我們確實看到客戶的接單狀況有所改善,我們也正與他們合作來管理並度過這段期間。
Brian Edward Chin - Associate
Brian Edward Chin - Associate
Got it. And then maybe for Mark. I think you touched on how, at least in the smartphone market, units are kind of a bigger tailwind this year, which hasn't always been the case in recent years. But I think in the 2022, what do you think -- to what degree could increased packaging complexity across foundries and maybe some IDMs be a more meaningful driver of incremental test intensity next year?
了解。接著可能問Mark。我想你提到至少在智慧型手機市場,今年出貨量在推動上是比較大的順風,這在近幾年並不總是如此。但我想問在2022年,你認為——晶圓代工廠以及可能一些IDM的封裝複雜度提升,在多大程度上可能成為明年額外測試強度(test intensity)更有意義的驅動因素?
Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director
Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director
Yes, we -- that's a good question. We bundle that into the complexity side of life. And there's already been advanced packaging technologies deployed for several years now in phones, but it's increasing. So that trend of multichip, multi-die packaging incrementally adds test time above and beyond what you would get if you were putting all of that silicon on a single integrated die. And there's not a good rule of thumb of how much of an adder it is, but it is a trend that's going to continue to grow and drive tests.
是的,我們——這是個好問題。我們把這歸在複雜度這一面。先進封裝技術其實已在手機上部署好幾年了,但確實正在增加。多晶片、多裸晶(multi-die)封裝的趨勢,會在你把所有矽都整合在單一整合裸晶上所需的測試時間之外,額外增加測試時間。至於會增加多少,沒有一個很好的經驗法則,但這是一個會持續成長並帶動測試需求的趨勢。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Atif Malik with Citi.
下一個問題來自Citi的Atif Malik。
Atif Malik - Director & Semiconductor Capital Equipment and Specialty Semiconductor Analyst
Atif Malik - Director & Semiconductor Capital Equipment and Specialty Semiconductor Analyst
I have a similar question on the mobility side end market. It sounds like your mobility outlook has improved for the year versus 90 days ago despite millimeter wave weakness. You talked about units helping. Can you talk about the confidence in test intensity staying elevated for both mobility and compute into next year? And if you can also highlight the steps you're taking to improve your market share in the areas that you're not strong, like x86 GPU and display drivers.
我有一個類似的問題,關於行動端終端市場。聽起來你們今年的行動業務展望相較90天前有所改善,儘管毫米波偏弱。你提到出貨量有所幫助。你能談談對於行動與運算兩個領域,測試強度在明年仍能維持高檔的信心來源嗎?另外也請說明你們正在採取哪些步驟,以提升你們在一些相對不強的領域的市占,例如x86 GPU與顯示驅動器。
Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director
Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director
Yes. So I think the complexity trends looking even into the next year are all very strong and positive. In the case of mobility, the newer lithographies that are coming online are being widely adopted by the manufacturers of silicon for phones, which portends more transistors, which portends more test time. So that, looking into next year, all looks positive. And we get, at this point in the year, early glimpses of what the silicon for next year might actually look like.
是的。我認為即便看向明年,複雜度的趨勢仍然非常強勁且正面。以行動為例,正在上線的新製程節點被手機晶片製造商廣泛採用,這意味著更多電晶體,也意味著更多測試時間。因此,展望明年,一切看起來都很正面。而在一年中的這個時間點,我們也能初步看到明年的矽產品可能實際會是什麼樣子。
The -- on the compute side, similarly, we not only have the trend of lower lithography nodes, but the new interface standards related to LPDDR5 and DDR5, as I mentioned in my remarks, the early adoption of that has been pushed out a little bit as the processors that go with it have been delayed a bit. But all of the complexity required to run at those higher bandwidths is coming in 2022. So those are 2 positive things I look at that gives me confidence that this driver of complexity growth is definitely going to be strong next year.
在——運算端方面同樣如此,我們不僅有製程節點持續下探的趨勢,還有與LPDDR5與DDR5相關的新介面標準。正如我在談話中提到的,這些標準的早期導入因為搭配的處理器稍有延後而被推遲了一點。但要在更高頻寬下運作所需的所有複雜度,將在2022年到來。所以我看到這兩個正面因素,讓我有信心,這個由複雜度成長所驅動的動能在明年肯定會很強。
In terms of share, what we said before is that penetrating the traditional x86 GPU stalwarts is going to be a long-term endeavor for us that's going to hinge on some kind of technological discontinuity like that shift to DDR5 or like a shift to PAM4 interfaces to crack into. So that one is episodic and will play out over, let's say, 3 to 5 years.
就市占而言,我們之前說過,要打入傳統x86 GPU的既有強勢供應商,對我們來說會是一項長期的努力,關鍵在於某種技術不連續點,例如轉向DDR5,或轉向PAM4介面,才能切入。因此,這會是階段性(episodic)的,並會在大約3到5年的時間內逐步展開。
On the other front is -- are the emerging hyperscalers and new people coming into the market of creating complex silicon. These are automobile manufacturers, hyperscalers that we've talked about in the past, the Googles, the Facebooks, the Microsofts, the Amazons, that's where we're focused on getting a position to grow with them as they launch their products into the market in the shorter term.
另一方面是——正在崛起的超大規模業者(hyperscalers)以及新進入市場、開始打造複雜矽晶片的人。這些包括汽車製造商、我們過去談過的超大規模業者——Google、Facebook、Microsoft、Amazon——我們的重點是在較短期內,當他們把產品推向市場時,取得一個能與他們一起成長的立足點。
Atif Malik - Director & Semiconductor Capital Equipment and Specialty Semiconductor Analyst
Atif Malik - Director & Semiconductor Capital Equipment and Specialty Semiconductor Analyst
Great, very helpful. And Sanjay, for you, the largest U.S. phone maker and your biggest indirect customer talked about supply constraints impacting smartphone sales in the September quarter yesterday. Have the materials and parts tightness gone worse over the last 90 days for your business?
很好,非常有幫助。Sanjay,想請教你,美國最大的手機製造商、也是你們最大的間接客戶,昨天提到供應受限正在影響 9 月季度的智慧型手機銷售。過去 90 天,你們業務所需的材料與零組件緊缺情況有變得更嚴重嗎?
Sanjay Mehta - CFO, VP & Treasurer
Sanjay Mehta - CFO, VP & Treasurer
Well, first of all, I won't comment on any particular customer, but I will speak in general about the environment. Last year, we were really working through demand increases, but we had fairly good, robust inventory strategies, and we are working through the impact of COVID. You have thousands of components that go into these testers, and we did a lot of resiliency improvements there. You fast forward to today's environment, and the demand has really kept accelerating. And the environment is tighter, I would say, today. And frankly, we don't see it letting up until the second half of 2022.
首先,我不會評論任何特定客戶,但我會就整體環境做一般性的說明。去年我們主要是在因應需求增加,但我們有相當良好、穩健的庫存策略,同時也在處理 COVID 的影響。這些測試機裡有成千上萬個元件,我們在那方面做了很多韌性提升。快轉到今天的環境,需求確實持續加速。我會說,今天的環境更緊。坦白講,我們不認為這種情況會在 2022 年下半年之前緩解。
So I think as the semiconductor industry goes through continued growth, you're seeing supply chains really getting tested. And then with the increase in the infection rates of COVID, especially, I'd say, in Southeast Asia, we're working through and managing the best we can. But I believe the net summation is it's a tighter industry now than it was, say, 3, 6 months ago.
所以我認為,隨著半導體產業持續成長,你會看到供應鏈真的正在接受考驗。再加上 COVID 感染率上升,尤其我會說在東南亞,我們正盡最大努力去應對與管理。但我相信總結來看,現在的產業供應更緊,較之於例如 3 個月、6 個月前更為吃緊。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Mehdi Hosseini with SIG.
下一個問題來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。
Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst
Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst
Two questions, one on ARM-based ASIC design. I'm trying to get a sense of how you see the TAM. You can either elaborate as a mix of SOC tests or perhaps you can tell us how is the test time for an ARM-based ASIC chip compared to like an app process or maybe that way we could give a sense of how demand looks like. So either qualitatively or quantitatively, you can -- if you can elaborate on ARM-based SOC test will be great. And I have a follow-up.
兩個問題,第一個是關於 ARM 架構的 ASIC 設計。我想了解你們如何看待 TAM(總可服務市場)。你可以從 SoC 測試的組合來說明,或者也可以告訴我們,ARM 架構的 ASIC 晶片相較於例如應用處理器(app processor)的測試時間如何,這樣我們或許能對需求樣貌有個概念。無論是定性或定量,如果你能就 ARM 架構 SoC 測試多做一些說明會很棒。之後我還有追問。
Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director
Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director
Yes. So I guess the first thing I'd say is that a ARM-based high-end map processor, which is what's in most of our phones today, driving most of our phones, has a transistor count that's equivalent to any laptop, x86 kind of product you might have in your computer. And the test times comparatively between those 2 are not that different. It's kind of proportional to test count.
好的。我想我首先會說,ARM 架構的高階行動處理器——也就是今天大多數手機裡、驅動大多數手機的那種——其電晶體數量與你電腦裡可能有的任何筆電 x86 類產品相當。而這兩者的測試時間相較之下並沒有差很多,大致上與測試項目數量成正比。
The new ARM processors that are coming to market for compute applications, not smartphone applications, have perhaps anywhere from a 25% to 60% at or, on transistor count, above what's at the highest end of smartphones. And the test time associated with them, I would say, is proportionately longer at this point. And so I think it's, generally speaking, scaling with transistor count, and the transistor count on the ARM side is running a little bit at a faster clip than it is on the more traditional architecture side, if that helps.
而即將進入市場、用於運算應用(不是智慧型手機應用)的新一代 ARM 處理器,其電晶體數量可能比最高階智慧型手機的水準高出約 25% 到 60%。我會說,與之相關的測試時間目前也會按比例更長。因此一般來說,它是隨電晶體數量在擴張;而 ARM 這邊的電晶體數量成長速度,比較傳統架構那邊稍微快一些,希望這樣有幫助。
Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst
Mehdi Hosseini - Senior Analyst
Sure. So the follow-up has to do with ARM-based. Actually, I want to just dig in a little bit more. Would you, at some point, break this out so we could better understand how kind of ARM-based SOC tester is tracking or scaling versus the rest of the SOC market? And number two, is there anything you can give us to better understand the competitive landscape for this specific application?
了解。追問還是關於 ARM。其實我想再深入一點。你們是否會在某個時間點把這部分拆分出來,讓我們更清楚 ARM 架構 SoC 測試機的追蹤或擴張情況,相對於整體 SoC 市場是如何?第二,針對這個特定應用,你們能否提供一些資訊,幫助我們更了解競爭態勢?
Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director
Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director
Yes. I guess I haven't thought about trying to find a way to break out ARM because most of what mobility is, is ARM; and then there's, let's say, compute applications for ARM; and then there's some processors that are almost dual-use, and they go into either application. So I think it's fair to say that any compute business that we have at Teradyne is ARM-based compute. And perhaps maybe in the future, we can look at some way to sort of characterize both the market and our associated revenue for that. But I don't have a good number for you now on that.
可以。我想我還沒有特別去思考要如何把 ARM 拆分出來,因為行動(mobility)基本上大多就是 ARM;另外還有 ARM 的運算應用;再來也有一些處理器幾乎是雙用途,可能用在任一種應用上。所以我認為可以這麼說:我們 Teradyne 的任何運算業務基本上都是 ARM 架構運算。也許未來我們可以看看是否有方法去描述市場以及我們相對應的營收,但我現在沒有一個好的數字可以提供。
And in terms of the applications coming to market, in the short term, we know about the phone applications, we know about some early adopters of ARM for compute. Those are all coming to market or are in the market now. The hyperscalers that we're working with are coming into market at various points next year with products that are quite interesting but highly speculative as to whether they'll latch in the market. And obviously, I'm not going to talk about those because they're pretty confidential. But we'll see what latches. If one of these applications can become a 100-plus million unit application, which most of these design teams are targeting, then that's a significant adder to the market.
至於即將進入市場的應用,短期內我們知道手機應用,也知道一些 ARM 用於運算的早期採用者;這些都正在進入市場或已在市場上。我們正在合作的超大規模業者,明年會在不同時間點推出一些相當有趣的產品,但它們是否能在市場上被採用仍高度不確定。當然我不會談那些,因為相當機密。我們就看哪些會被市場接受。如果其中某個應用能成為年出貨量超過 1 億台的應用——而這些設計團隊多數都以此為目標——那將會為市場帶來顯著的增量。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Vivek Arya with Bank of America.
下一個問題來自美國銀行(Bank of America)的 Vivek Arya。
Vivek Arya - Director
Vivek Arya - Director
I was curious, how is your kind of visibility for Q4 as you kind of stand today versus what it is usually? And if you could give us some color by end market in terms of what is in your assumption for Q3 and the second half, that would be very helpful.
我想了解,以你們目前的狀態來看,對第 4 季的能見度相較於通常情況如何?另外,如果你能按終端市場提供一些補充說明,談談你們對第 3 季與下半年的假設,會非常有幫助。
Sanjay Mehta - CFO, VP & Treasurer
Sanjay Mehta - CFO, VP & Treasurer
Sure. So Q4, if I look back at my last 2 years here, we've been surprised mainly on the positive side. And I'd say that given the tightness of supply and customers providing a little bit more in the way of backlog, it gives us a little bit more insight. However, obviously, in the near term, we have much stronger visibility in Q3 than in Q4. And so -- but we do have, I'd say, a little bit of incremental visibility.
當然。就第 4 季而言,如果我回顧我在這裡的過去兩年,我們主要是被正向驚喜所驚訝。我會說,鑑於供應吃緊、以及客戶提供更多的訂單積壓(backlog),這讓我們多了一些洞見。不過很明顯,在短期內,我們對第 3 季的能見度遠高於第 4 季。但我們確實有一些額外的能見度提升。
In color -- in your question in regards to color for Q3, we see continued strength in semiconductor. Obviously, the different components within Semi Test are going to be a little volatile, but we do see a trend down. It's still what we believe is very strong demand, but we see a trend down. And we see in our IA portfolio, really, a strength. Obviously, with the COVID impact in 2020, industrials are really coming back. I'll cite some PMIs in the 60s at the U.S. and Europe. And we really see that in our, as Mark noted, in our growth in the U.S. But we're seeing that growth in China as well as in Europe and the U.S. So continued expected growth in IA and then, from a test perspective, coming down a bit.
至於你問到第 3 季的補充說明,我們看到半導體持續強勁。當然,半導體測試(Semi Test)內部不同組成會有些波動,但我們確實看到一個下行趨勢。這仍是我們認為非常強的需求,但趨勢是往下。而在我們的 IA 產品組合方面,我們看到的是強勁表現。顯然,受到 2020 年 COVID 的影響,工業端正在明顯回升。我可以引用一些 PMI:美國與歐洲都在 60 多的水準。我們確實在業務中看到這點,如 Mark 所提到的,我們在美國的成長;同時也在中國、歐洲與美國看到成長。因此 IA 預期持續成長;而從測試的角度來看,則會稍微回落一些。
Vivek Arya - Director
Vivek Arya - Director
Got it. And then on the UR side, Mark, I'm curious, what are the top 3 applications you're serving today? And how do you expect these applications to evolve? You are maintaining a very strong growth rate in that business. And I'm curious, what is driving that. Is it more number of customers? Is it more applications within the same customer? So what's giving you the confidence you can maintain this very strong growth rate in the UR business? And is -- on the gross margin side, is it accretive? I know on the operating margin side, you've given a range. But I imagine on the gross margin side, it might be accretive to your business.
了解。接著在 UR 方面,Mark,我想請教你們目前服務的前三大應用是什麼?你預期這些應用會如何演變?你們在那項業務維持非常強的成長率。我想知道背後的驅動因素是什麼:是客戶數增加?還是同一客戶內的應用增加?是什麼讓你有信心能在 UR 業務維持這麼強的成長率?另外,在毛利率方面,它是否對你們的整體毛利率有增益(accretive)?我知道在營業利益率方面你們給過一個區間,但我想在毛利率方面,它可能對你們的業務是有增益的。
Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director
Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director
Yes. It's interesting because there's no silver bullet as to what's driving the growth at UR. So for example, we're going to be up about 30% from revenue in 2019, 40% up from 2020. And in the script, I mentioned this application for welding, which is a brand-new application that is now driving about 6% of our sales for the year. Last quarter, I talked about this service application for servicing high-voltage power lines that's also running at around that 6% of sales applications that was nonexistent -- essentially nonexistent 2 years ago.
是的。很有意思的是,UR 的成長並沒有單一的「銀彈」因素。舉例來說,相較於 2019 年,我們的營收將成長約 30%;相較於 2020 年,將成長 40%。在講稿中我提到焊接這個應用,這是一個全新的應用,目前已帶動我們今年約 6% 的銷售。上一季我也談到一個用於高壓電力線維修的服務型應用,目前也約占銷售的 6%;而這個應用在兩年前基本上是不存在的——幾乎不存在。
So already, we have 12% of our growth attributed to new applications in new markets with new customers that we didn't have 2 years ago. So it's a combination of expanding applications like those 2 examples as well as established markets growing that's driving this. And our top 3 applications tend to be the same. It's automotive supply chain, it's industrial machine tending and it's electronic assembly tend to be the ones that are at the top of the pack. But frankly, they are shrinking as a percentage of sales as these new applications come online.
所以光是這些新市場的新應用、以及我們兩年前沒有的新客戶,就已經貢獻了我們成長的 12%。因此,驅動因素是多種因素的組合:一方面是像這兩個例子那樣的應用擴張,另一方面是既有市場的成長。我們的前三大應用通常也差不多:汽車供應鏈、工業機台上下料(machine tending)、以及電子組裝,通常是排名最前面的幾項。但坦白說,隨著這些新應用陸續上線,它們占銷售的比重正在下降。
So what gives me confidence looking forward is that ecosystem of partners who are developing these application solutions on our platform, not our competitors, is just continuing to grow and prosper. And they're not all going to be as successful as high-voltage line tending or welding. But it only takes 10% of them to fuel the kind of growth numbers that we've been seeing. And the activity there is very strong, and the technology is maturing to the point that more and more applications can economically be served.
因此,讓我對未來有信心的是:由合作夥伴所組成的生態系正在持續成長並蓬勃發展,他們是在我們的平台上(而不是在競爭對手的平台上)開發這些應用解決方案。而且他們不可能都像高壓電線維護或焊接那樣成功。但只要其中 10% 能夠成功,就足以推動我們近來所看到的那種成長數字。那邊的活動非常強勁,技術也正在成熟到一個程度,使得越來越多的應用可以在經濟上可行地被服務。
And over the horizon, when you look at what AI can bring, there's a whole new set of, let's say, features that will enable yet another expansion of the market. It's what gives us the confidence to talk about these kind of decade-long growth rates of 25%, 30%, 35%.
而放眼更遠的未來,當你看 AI 能帶來什麼時,會有一整套新的、可以說是功能特性,將使市場再度擴張。這也是讓我們有信心去談這種長達十年的 25%、30%、35% 成長率的原因。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of John Pitzer with Credit Suisse.
下一個問題來自 Credit Suisse 的 John Pitzer。
John William Pitzer - MD, Global Technology Strategist and Global Technology Sector Head
John William Pitzer - MD, Global Technology Strategist and Global Technology Sector Head
Mark, maybe another way to ask the calendar fourth quarter question is, over the last 3 years, the business has run in such a way that second half has been greater than the first half from a top line perspective, which has broken kind of a trend, where if you go back the prior 7 years, it was first half stronger than second half. Did you have any commentary on sort of how you think the second half over the first half looked this year just given how strong the market environment is and how tight test capacity is?
Mark,也許換個方式問關於曆年第四季的問題:過去 3 年,從營收角度來看,下半年都高於上半年,這打破了一種趨勢;如果回到更早之前的 7 年,則是上半年強於下半年。考量到目前市場環境非常強勁、測試產能又很吃緊,你對今年下半年相對上半年的表現有什麼看法嗎?
Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director
Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director
You're right, perfect student of the history. And we have been, as Sanjay said, always a bit surprised in the recent years on how strong the fourth quarter has come in and driven second half to be a bit higher than first. So if you asked us today, we'd say first half is a little bit stronger than second, but that's no different than kind of what we thought for the last couple of years, too. And that just is a testament to the visibility in Q4 as -- the lack of visibility in Q4.
你說得對,你完全是歷史的優等生。而且正如 Sanjay 所說,近幾年我們一直有點驚訝第四季竟然如此強勁,帶動下半年略高於上半年。所以如果你今天問我們,我們會說上半年會比下半年稍強一些,但這也不不同於我們過去幾年原本的看法。這其實也反映了我們對 Q4 的能見度——也就是 Q4 的能見度不足。
As Sanjay said, though, it's a little bit more visibility now than before because lead times are a little longer. But all the upside that could come in is the, obviously, the piece that's not visible. So we feel probably better now about Q4 than we felt in any prior 2 or 3 years, but it's sort of what might happen between now and October that's invisible.
不過如 Sanjay 所說,現在的能見度確實比以前高一點,因為交期變得更長。但所有可能出現的上行空間,顯然就是那個看不見的部分。所以我們現在對 Q4 的感覺,可能比過去 2、3 年任何時候都更好一些,但真正看不見的是從現在到 10 月之間可能會發生什麼。
John William Pitzer - MD, Global Technology Strategist and Global Technology Sector Head
John William Pitzer - MD, Global Technology Strategist and Global Technology Sector Head
That's helpful. And then, Mark, as my follow-on, I apologize, the audio quality was a little poor during your prepared comments. I wanted to go back to some of the commentary you made around DDR5 adoption. I think the point you were making is perhaps it's a little bit slower than you thought. Is that correct? And I guess, more importantly, can you give us an update of how you think you're positioned for DDR5 when it does start to ramp relative to share in memory test?
這很有幫助。接著,Mark,作為追問我先道歉,你在事先準備的發言中音質有點差。我想回到你提到 DDR5 導入的一些評論。我理解你想表達的是,DDR5 的導入可能比你原先預期慢一些。這樣理解正確嗎?更重要的是,當 DDR5 開始放量時,相較於記憶體測試的市占,你能否更新一下你們在 DDR5 上的布局與定位?
Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director
Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director
Yes. Yes, sorry about the audio quality. But in fact, yes, DDR5 for server applications has pushed out a bit as the server chips themselves have been delayed. We've seen the impact of that in the demand for DDR5 testers. And similar things happened with LPDDR5 going into mobility applications. So despite all that, the share position for Teradyne, we think, is unchanged from our earlier estimates at around 40% of the market, and it's going to be a tailwind next year when the DDR5 and LPDDR5 ramp as was originally thought would happen toward the end of this year. So we're well positioned there, and I think that's a tailwind for us next year.
是的。是的,抱歉音質不佳。事實上,DDR5 用於伺服器應用的時程確實往後推了一些,因為伺服器晶片本身延遲了。我們已在 DDR5 測試機需求上看到其影響。類似的情況也發生在 LPDDR5 導入行動裝置應用上。儘管如此,我們認為 Teradyne 的市占地位與先前估計一致,約為市場的 40%;而當 DDR5 與 LPDDR5 在明年放量(原本預期是今年底)時,將成為順風。因此我們在這方面布局良好,我認為這會是我們明年的一個順風。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of C.J. Muse with Evercore.
下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 C.J. Muse。
Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst
Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst
I guess first question, Mark, you've taken SOC test market size higher again. And I guess, curious, if we were to hit the high end of the range, what would be the driver there? And would your market share still be 48%? Or could you see greater contribution from what's driving potentially the market to the higher end of the range?
第一個問題,Mark,你再次上調了 SOC 測試市場規模。我想了解,如果我們達到區間上緣,驅動因素會是什麼?而你們的市占仍會是 48% 嗎?或者推動市場到區間上緣的因素,是否可能讓你們的貢獻更大、帶來更高的市占?
Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director
Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director
Yes. Certainly, if the market goes up towards the high end of that range, our revenue would grow probably proportional to that. Would our share go much higher? I gave a number -- I threw in a number of roughly 48% at the midpoint of our market size guide. I would expect our market share is probably going to stay around that number, plus or minus 0.5 point at this point in the year.
是的。當然,如果市場往該區間的上緣走,我們的營收大概也會按比例成長。我們的市占會大幅提高嗎?我給過一個數字——在我們市場規模指引的中點,我隨口提到大約 48%。我預期在今年這個時間點,我們的市占大概會維持在那個數字附近,上下約 0.5 個百分點。
But it's hard to sort of prognosticate too much about where the share comes from. And as you know, one customer's buying capacity can swing multiple points of share in any given year. And so one of our customers could come in and drive a demand that we don't see right now. We have the manufacturing capacity to serve it. And yes, I guess we could be up at 50% share if that happened. It's just a little opaque at the moment.
但要對市占來源做太多預測其實很難。你也知道,任何一年中,單一客戶的採購產能就可能讓市占擺動好幾個百分點。因此,我們某個客戶可能會突然帶來我們目前還看不到的需求。我們有製造產能可以支援。若真如此,是的,我想我們可能會到 50% 的市占;只是目前還有點不透明。
Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst
Christopher James Muse - Senior MD, Head of Global Semiconductor Research & Senior Equity Research Analyst
Okay. That's helpful. And I guess a follow-on question to a few of the questions that you got earlier. You spoke to DDR5 now being pushed to a tailwind next year. You've spoken to high-performance compute, particularly the non-x86 world as a tailwind for you guys next year. I think the concern out there is that your one large customer could decline meaningfully and that would cause SOC for you guys to be down next year. So I guess, as you sit here today and you're setting up your supply for customers and lead times have extended, how are you thinking about the world into 2022 for SOC for Teradyne?
好的,這很有幫助。接著追問一下,呼應你先前收到的幾個問題:你提到 DDR5 現在被推遲,將成為明年的順風;你也提到高效能運算,特別是非 x86 的領域,將是你們明年的順風。市場上的擔憂是,你們的一個大型客戶可能會顯著下滑,導致你們明年的 SOC 業務下滑。所以我想問,站在今天、你們正在為客戶安排供應且交期已拉長的情況下,你們如何看待 Teradyne 在 2022 年的 SOC 走勢?
Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director
Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director
Very bullish because I think the concern -- let's see, I'm not going to speak too specifically around our customer. But what I would say is that the portfolio of devices that are being developed by our hyperscaler customers continues to expand. And that's going to -- in addition to the complexity growth of the existing portfolio, you add more chips on top of that, it portends a growing market, a growing customer. So there's going to be ups and downs, but I think the cataclysmic or sort of a cliff concern, we're now a decade into this almost, so -- and it just hasn't happened. So the trend line, I think, is pretty clear, and I think that trend line will continue.
非常看多,因為我認為那個擔憂——我不會對我們的客戶講得太具體。但我想說的是,我們超大規模雲端客戶正在開發的裝置組合仍在持續擴大。再加上既有產品組合的複雜度提升,當你在原有基礎上再增加更多晶片,這預示著市場會成長、客戶也會成長。當然會有起伏,但那種災難性、或所謂斷崖式下滑的擔憂——我們幾乎已經走了快十年——而且它並沒有發生。所以我認為趨勢線相當清楚,而且我認為那條趨勢線會持續下去。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.
下一個問題來自 Goldman Sachs 的 Toshiya Hari。
Toshiya Hari - MD
Toshiya Hari - MD
I had 2 as well. Mark, I guess somewhat related to C.J.'s question. Just curious in terms of the auto SOC test market, I think in your prepared remarks, you mentioned that you expect the market to exceed $500 million this year and now that's the highest mark since 2017. How are you thinking about sustainability there into '22? Near-term demand is clearly very strong. And when we speak with your customers, they're all kind of complaining about extending lead times. So I guess the bias is to the upside, but curious how you're thinking about that market.
我也有兩個問題。Mark,我想這和 C.J. 的問題有點相關。我好奇在汽車 SOC 測試市場方面,我記得你在事先準備的發言中提到,你預期今年市場會超過 5 億美元,而且這是自 2017 年以來的最高水準。你如何看待 2022 年的可持續性?短期需求顯然非常強。當我們與你們的客戶交談時,他們都在抱怨交期延長。所以我猜偏向上行,但仍想了解你對這個市場的看法。
And then as a follow-up, a question on Storage Test. It seems like both HDD and SLT are trending very nicely. I think the business was up more than 2x last year in 2020. Curious what you're thinking about the business full year 2021. If you can differentiate between SLT and HDD, that would be super helpful.
接著追問一個關於儲存測試(Storage Test) 的問題。看起來 HDD 和 SLT 的趨勢都相當不錯。我認為 2020 年該業務成長超過 2 倍。想請教你對 2021 全年的看法。如果能區分 SLT 與 HDD,會非常有幫助。
Sanjay Mehta - CFO, VP & Treasurer
Sanjay Mehta - CFO, VP & Treasurer
It's Sanjay here. So I'll take a cut at them. So from an auto market perspective, it's true this year, we've seen tremendous growth and just about $500 million or plus or minus a bit from a market size, and yes, as far as we've seen even back to 2017. And fundamentally, I think in the last call, there was commentary around the auto industry, for years, has lived on a just-in-time manufacturing. And fundamentally, in back half of 2019, sales weren't so high. And coming into '20, obviously, demand has really picked up. And so you're seeing just a significant replenishment of inventory back into the system. And we're seeing that continue. We see, obviously, the lead times. And currently, the demand is outstripping our supply. And we see that good visibility until the end of 2021.
我是 Sanjay。我來嘗試回答。就汽車市場而言,確實,今年我們看到非常可觀的成長,市場規模大約 5 億美元左右,上下可能有些差異;而且是的,就我們所見,這是回到 2017 年以來的高點。從根本上來看,我想在上次電話會議中曾提到,汽車產業多年來一直採取即時(just-in-time)製造。基本上,在 2019 年下半年,銷售並不算高;進入 2020 年後,需求顯著回升。因此你看到系統內出現了相當大幅度的庫存回補。我們也看到這種情況持續。我們當然也看到交期拉長。目前需求超過我們的供給。而且我們對 2021 年底之前都有良好的能見度。
2022 will be interesting because we'll have to take a look at what are the inventory levels and what is the market demand in 2022 in first half. And so it's a little bit opaque, I'd say, in 2022, but it will depend on what I believe to be the inventory level and, obviously, the end market demand.
2022 年會很有意思,因為我們必須觀察 2022 年上半年庫存水位如何,以及市場需求如何。所以我會說,2022 年仍有點不透明;它將取決於我認為的庫存水位,以及當然還有終端市場需求。
And from a storage perspective, a little bit of color around 2020 and 2021. If I go back to 2020, HDD and our SLT business was kind of split relatively even. One was a little bigger than the other. And from an HDD perspective, we've seen continued end-market demand fueling that business. But when we look into 2021 from an SLT perspective, we're seeing a broadening of devices being adopted for SLT testing, which is providing a tailwind, which is enabling a larger growth in that segment of the storage business this year relative to the HDD business.
從儲存的角度來看,補充一些關於 2020 年和 2021 年的背景。如果回到 2020 年,HDD 與我們的 SLT 業務大致上相對平均地分成兩部分,其中一個略大於另一個。從 HDD 的角度,我們看到終端市場需求持續推動該業務成長。但當我們看 2021 年的 SLT 角度時,我們看到採用 SLT 測試的裝置範圍正在擴大,這帶來順風,有助於今年儲存業務中該區塊相較於 HDD 業務實現更大的成長。
So the HDD business is still very strong; end-market demand, very strong. But the broadening of the SLT -- or sorry, the ASICs being tested under SLT is increasing, which is really good news. So it's growing a little faster than the HDD shipments from a storage perspective.
所以 HDD 業務仍然非常強勁;終端市場需求非常強。但 SLT——抱歉,是在 SLT 下被測試的 ASIC 數量正在增加,這真的是好消息。因此,從儲存的角度來看,它的成長速度比 HDD 出貨量快一些。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri with UBS.
下一個問題來自 UBS 的 Timothy Arcuri。
Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
I had a question about your commentary, Mark, about your SOC share for the year and sort of what it implies for SOC in Q4, and more broadly, what it implies for total company revenue in Q4. So you've sort of given us all the different pieces. You guided wireless for the year, you guided systems for the year and you gave us the pieces on the Test businesses.
我想問一個關於你先前評論的問題,Mark,關於你今年的 SOC 份額,以及它對第四季 SOC 的含意;更廣泛地說,它對公司第四季總營收的含意。你其實已經把各個不同的拼圖都給我們了:你給了全年無線的指引、全年系統的指引,也給了測試業務的各個部分。
So if I just look at what that implies for SOC in Q4, I mean you're going to do about $575 million roughly for SOC in Q3. That's not a big mystery. But the Q4 number implies it goes down to like $425 million, somewhere in the low 4s. That will be down year-over-year. So I guess my first question is like why would that be given that you have all this visibility? And obviously, you're quite bullish about the market. So why would Q4 be down so much? That's my first question in SOC.
所以如果我只看這對第四季 SOC 的含意,我的意思是,你們第三季 SOC 大概會做到約 5.75 億美元。這不是什麼謎題。但第四季的數字暗示它會降到大約 4.25 億美元,落在 4 億出頭。這會是年減。所以我第一個問題是:既然你們有這麼高的能見度,為什麼會這樣?而且顯然你們對市場相當看多。那為什麼第四季會下滑這麼多?這是我對 SOC 的第一個問題。
Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director
Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director
Yes. I don't know if it will be down so much or not. It's a portfolio of businesses, and all of those numbers have a margin of plus or minus, let's say, 1% around them. So that creates a large Monte Carlo simulation. And if you go right down the middle, I think you probably -- I'm sure you did the math right, that's probably what you come up with.
是的。我不確定它是否會下滑那麼多。這是一個業務組合,而所有這些數字都有一個上下浮動的範圍,比如說正負 1% 左右。這會形成一個很大的蒙地卡羅模擬。如果你取正中間的情境,我想你大概——我確定你算得沒錯——就會得到那樣的結果。
But that's typical, as I said earlier, of where we stand at this point in the year looking into Q4 as in past years where it's come in higher. There's a significant unknown around what we'll book between now and through October that can drive Q4 shipments. And while we have backlog that extends in some product lines, as Sanjay mentioned, all the way through the end of the year, there's others that's more of a turns business.
但這很典型,正如我先前提到的,在每年這個時間點展望第四季,過去幾年也常常是如此,最後實際結果會更高。從現在到 10 月之間我們能接到多少訂單(book),存在很大的不確定性,而這會驅動第四季的出貨。雖然如 Sanjay 所提到的,我們在某些產品線的積壓訂單(backlog)一路延伸到年底,但也有一些業務更偏向於短週期的「當季接單當季出貨」(turns)型態。
And we've positioned ourselves to be very responsive on the SOC front, in general, to capitalize on these sort of short demand request to come from our customers. That's why we've in the past been enabled to, in the quarter, exceed our guidance and even in the fourth quarter and prior years exceed what we thought when we were talking back then in July.
而且我們已經讓自己在 SOC 這一端整體上具備很高的反應速度,以便把握客戶提出的這類短期需求。這也是為什麼過去我們能在單季超越指引,甚至在第四季、在過去幾年也能超出我們在 7 月時所預期的水準。
So it could very well turn out that the demand that we've seen in the last couple of years in Q4 yet materializes again and we end up, as C.J. was hinting at, having a second half larger than first. It's just that at this point in the year, given what customers are talking about, we just don't see that as the most likely outcome.
所以很有可能,過去幾年我們在第四季看到的需求再次出現,然後我們最終——如 C.J. 暗示的——下半年比上半年更大。只是以今年這個時間點、根據客戶目前的說法,我們不認為那是最可能的結果。
And it's episodic, too. What happens in Q4, a lot of it happens, in the past couple of years, in the December quarter, preparing for product launches that occur in February time frame, new phones and things like that. And so -- and again, with a rash of phone introductions in February, although we don't see it now, we could see a demand for SOC testers to support that driving December shipments.
而且這也具有階段性(episodic)。第四季發生的很多事情,在過去幾年多半發生在 12 月季度,為 2 月左右的新產品發表做準備,例如新手機之類的。因此——再說一次,如果 2 月有一波密集的手機導入,雖然我們現在還沒看到,但我們可能會看到對 SOC 測試機的需求,以支援這些導入,進而帶動 12 月的出貨。
Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Yes. No, it's -- I mean the total company revenue is sort of implied to be below what people are expecting for Q4, so that's kind of why I was asking.
是的。不——我的意思是,公司第四季總營收似乎暗示會低於市場預期,所以我才會這樣問。
So anyway, on your revised TAM for Semi Test, so can you just update us on the segment? So I think before, you were thinking compute would be $1 billion, mobility would be $1.6 billion. Auto, you just gave that number, is like $500 million. And industrial, I think before, you were talking about $500 million. So is the revision mostly in the compute side, can you sort of update us on those numbers?
總之,關於你們修訂後的半導體測試(Semi Test)TAM,你能更新一下各細分市場嗎?我記得之前你們認為運算(compute)會是 10 億美元、行動(mobility)是 16 億美元。汽車(auto)你剛剛給的數字大概是 5 億美元。工業(industrial)我記得之前你們談的是 5 億美元。所以這次修訂主要是在運算端嗎?你能更新一下這些數字嗎?
Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director
Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director
Yes. The numbers for compute are about the same. Mobility is probably up a couple of hundred million. Auto is up probably $50 million and industrial up about $50 million.
可以。運算的數字大致相同。行動可能上調了約 2 億美元。汽車大概上調 5,000 萬美元,工業大概上調 5,000 萬美元。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Krish Sankar with Cowen.
下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Krish Sankar。
Krish Sankar - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Krish Sankar - MD & Senior Research Analyst
And Mark, thanks for the color earlier on the ARM test opportunity. I just want to ask the question in a different way. When do you think the non-x86 compute TAM or maybe the total test compute TAM be similar or bigger than the mobility test market? And then I had a follow-up.
Mark,謝謝你先前對 ARM 測試機會的補充說明。我想用不同方式問同一個問題:你認為非 x86 的運算 TAM,或也許整體運算測試 TAM,什麼時候會與行動測試市場相當或更大?然後我還有一個追問。
Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director
Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director
Bigger than the mobility test. So your question is when will the ARM compute test TAM be bigger than the ARM mobility test TAM?
比行動測試更大。你的問題是:ARM 運算測試 TAM 何時會大於 ARM 行動測試 TAM?
Krish Sankar - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Krish Sankar - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Yes, mobility test TAM is about $1.6 billion or $1.7 billion, and you said compute is about $1 billion. When do you think the total compute TAM or maybe just the non-x86 compute TAM get to be bigger than mobility?
是的,行動測試 TAM 大約是 16 億或 17 億美元,而你說運算大約是 10 億美元。你認為整體運算 TAM,或也許只是非 x86 的運算 TAM,什麼時候會大於行動?
Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director
Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director
I don't think it's going to be in the next 4 or 5 years. I think much of what's being developed in the ARM space by the hyperscalers will more likely fall into the category of mobility. So I don't see compute growing beyond mobility in the next 4 or 5 years.
我不認為會在未來 4 到 5 年內發生。我認為超大規模業者(hyperscalers)在 ARM 領域開發的許多東西,更可能會落在行動(mobility)的範疇。因此我不認為在未來 4 到 5 年內,運算會成長到超過行動。
Krish Sankar - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Krish Sankar - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Got it. Got it. And then, Mark, on the auto test market, you said it's over $500 million. I'm guessing that includes auto microcontroller, linear, et cetera. If that is the case, is there any way of giving some more color within that? Or you think it's too hard to segment it?
了解,了解。接著,Mark,關於汽車測試市場,你說超過 5 億美元。我猜那包含汽車微控制器(microcontroller)、類比/線性(linear)等等。如果是這樣的話,有沒有辦法在其中再多給一些細分的背景?還是你覺得太難切分?
Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director
Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director
Yes, it does include microcontrollers. And I would say that auto is outstripped -- most of the growth is auto more than microcontrollers. Microcontrollers is growing too, but it's mostly auto. Auto -- and of course, there's microcontrollers in auto. So when I say auto, I mean microcontrollers for auto versus microcontrollers, let's say, for white goods and things like that.
是的,確實包含微控制器。我會說汽車的成長更快——大部分的成長來自汽車本身而非微控制器。微控制器也在成長,但主要是汽車。汽車——當然,汽車裡也有微控制器。所以當我說汽車時,我指的是用於汽車的微控制器,相對於例如用於白色家電(white goods)之類的微控制器。
Operator
Operator
Your final question comes from the line of Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley.
最後一個問題來自 Morgan Stanley 的 Joe Moore。
Joseph Lawrence Moore - Executive Director
Joseph Lawrence Moore - Executive Director
I wanted to ask about the millimeter wave commentary. It seemed like the expectation was primarily one customer in one region. So when you say that was kind of short of your expectations, what are you referring to there?
我想問關於毫米波的評論。看起來市場預期主要是一個客戶、在一個地區。所以當你說那低於你們的預期時,你指的是什麼?
Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director
Mark E. Jagiela - President, CEO & Director
So it's not one customer, one region. Millimeter wave last year for us grew significantly. We probably had 90% share of the early buying per millimeter wave test in 2020. And I would say that was spread out across 6 or 7 customers. Anybody who's making a chipset related to millimeter wave was pretty much using a Teradyne tester in 2020. The deployment of millimeter wave by the telecommunication companies has ground to a halt. And that has proportionately ground to a halt the need for incremental test in 2021.
所以不是一個客戶、一個地區。對我們而言,去年毫米波成長非常顯著。2020 年毫米波測試的早期採購,我們大概有 90% 的市占。我會說那分散在 6 到 7 個客戶之間。任何在做與毫米波相關晶片組的人,2020 年幾乎都在使用 Teradyne 的測試機。電信公司對毫米波的部署已經停滯不前,而這也相對地讓 2021 年對新增測試設備的需求停了下來。
Andrew J. Blanchard - VP of Corporate Relations
Andrew J. Blanchard - VP of Corporate Relations
Okay, folks, thanks so much for joining us today. That concludes the call. We apologize for the audio difficulties at the front end of it. We look forward to talking to you in the days and weeks ahead. And those in the queue, I'll get back with you directly here. Thank you.
好的,各位,非常感謝今天加入我們。電話會議到此結束。我們對一開始的音訊問題致歉。我們期待在接下來的幾天與幾週內再與各位交流。至於還在排隊的各位,我會在這裡直接回覆你們。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation, and have a wonderful day. You may all disconnect.
各位女士先生,今天的會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與,祝各位有美好的一天。各位現在可以斷線。