泰瑞達 (TER) 2020 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Q4 of 2020 Teradyne, Inc. Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

女士們，先生們，感謝您的支持，歡迎來到泰瑞達公司 2020 年第四季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Andy Blanchard, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

我現在想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁安迪布蘭查德先生。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, Sharon. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our discussion of Teradyne's most recent financial results. I'm joined for our discussion this morning by Teradyne's CEO, Mark Jagiela; and CFO, Sanjay Mehta. Following our opening remarks, we'll provide details of our performance for 2020's fourth quarter and full year, along with our outlook for the first quarter of 2021.

謝謝你，莎倫。大家早上好，歡迎來到我們對泰瑞達最近財務業績的討論。今天早上，泰瑞達的首席執行官馬克·賈吉拉 (Mark Jagiela) 和我一起參加了我們的討論；和首席財務官 Sanjay Mehta。在我們的開場白之後，我們將提供 2020 年第四季度和全年業績的詳細信息，以及我們對 2021 年第一季度的展望。

The press release containing our results was issued last evening. We are providing slides on the Investor page of the website that may be helpful to you in following the discussion. Replays of this call will be available via the same page after the call ends. The matters that we discuss today will include forward-looking statements that involve risk factors that could cause Teradyne's results to differ materially from management's current expectations. We encourage you to review the safe harbor statement contained in the earnings release as well as our most recent SEC filings.

包含我們結果的新聞稿於昨晚發布。我們在網站的“投資者”頁面上提供幻燈片，可能對您關注討論有所幫助。此通話的重播將在通話結束後通過同一頁面提供。我們今天討論的事項將包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述涉及可能導致泰瑞達業績與管理層當前預期存在重大差異的風險因素。我們鼓勵您查看收益發布中包含的安全港聲明以及我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件。

Additionally, those forward-looking statements are made as of today, and we take no obligation to update them as a result of developments occurring after this call.

此外，這些前瞻性陳述是截至今天作出的，我們沒有義務根據本次電話會議後發生的事態發展對其進行更新。

During today's call, we'll make reference to non-GAAP financial measures. We posted additional information concerning these non-GAAP financial measures, including reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure, where available, on the Investor page of our website. Looking ahead between now and our next earnings call, Teradyne will be participating in technology or industrial-focused investor conferences hosted by Goldman Sachs, Citi and Susquehanna.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將參考非 GAAP 財務指標。我們在我們網站的投資者頁面上發布了有關這些非 GAAP 財務指標的更多信息，包括與最直接可比的 GAAP 財務指標的對賬（如果可用）。展望從現在到下一次財報電話會議，Teradyne 將參加由高盛、花旗和 Susquehanna 主辦的以技術或工業為重點的投資者會議。

Now let's get on with the rest of the agenda. First, Mark will comment on our recent results and the market conditions as we enter the new year. Sanjay will then offer more details on our results along with our guidance for the first quarter. We'll then answer your questions, and this call is scheduled for 1 hour. Mark?

現在讓我們繼續議程的其餘部分。首先，馬克將在我們進入新的一年時評論我們最近的業績和市場狀況。然後，Sanjay 將提供有關我們結果的更多詳細信息以及我們對第一季度的指導。然後，我們將回答您的問題，此通話時間安排為 1 小時。標記？

Good morning, and thanks for joining us. In our call today, I'll summarize our Q4 and 2020 full year highlights and provide some initial comments on our outlook for 2021. Sanjay will then provide the financial details, Q1 outlook and review our updated earnings model and capital allocation plans.

早上好，感謝您加入我們。在我們今天的電話會議中，我將總結我們的第四季度和 2020 年全年亮點，並對我們對 2021 年的展望提供一些初步評論。然後 Sanjay 將提供財務細節、第一季度展望並審查我們更新的盈利模型和資本配置計劃。

Fourth quarter capped off an amazing year for Teradyne, with sales up 16% from the fourth quarter of 2019 and non-GAAP earnings per share up 25%. That brought our full year sales to just over $3.1 billion, up 36% and non-GAAP EPS to $4.62, up 62% versus 2019. These annual results, driven by strength in all of our test businesses more than made up for a soft industrial automation market that was impacted by COVID.

第四季度結束了 Teradyne 令人驚嘆的一年，銷售額比 2019 年第四季度增長 16%，非 GAAP 每股收益增長 25%。這使我們的全年銷售額超過 31 億美元，增長 36%，非 GAAP 每股收益達到 4.62 美元，比 2019 年增長 62%。這些年度業績在我們所有測試業務的實力推動下，足以彌補軟工業受 COVID 影響的自動化市場。

For the full year, our Semi Test business was especially strong, driven by investments in smartphone-related test capacity, our expansion into the compute sector of SOC with our new UltraFLEXplus product and the ramp of our Magnum EPIC product for DRAM test.

全年，我們的半測試業務特別強勁，這得益於對智能手機相關測試能力的投資、我們通過新的 UltraFLEXplus 產品擴展到 SOC 的計算領域以及用於 DRAM 測試的 Magnum EPIC 產品的增長。

In smartphones, global unit shipments contracted in 2020, but the growth in chipset complexity continued driving tester demand higher. Each subsystem on the phone, cellular power management, connectivity, display, cameras and application processing has its own cycle. And in 2020, both the processor and the cellular areas took big steps up in complexity. We use transistor count as a proxy for complexity, and the leading phone applications processors now exceed 10 billion transistors, growing double digits each generation.

在智能手機方面，2020 年全球單位出貨量收縮，但芯片組複雜性的增長繼續推動測試儀需求走高。手機上的每個子系統、蜂窩電源管理、連接、顯示、相機和應用程序處理都有自己的周期。到 2020 年，處理器和蜂窩領域的複雜性都大大提高了。我們使用晶體管數量作為複雜性的代表，領先的電話應用處理器現在超過 100 億個晶體管，每一代都以兩位數的速度增長。

In 2020, we also saw the beginning of meaningful 5G silicon content, which necessitated a build-out of new tester capacity. Together, these lifted the mobility test market in 2020, roughly $200 million to about $1.7 billion. This continuous refresh of smartphone silicon should be a tailwind for the semiconductor test business for the foreseeable future.

2020 年，我們還看到了有意義的 5G 芯片內容的開始，這需要建立新的測試儀容量。這些共同推動了 2020 年的移動測試市場，從大約 2 億美元增加到大約 17 億美元。在可預見的未來，智能手機芯片的不斷更新應該是半導體測試業務的順風車。

In 2020, we also ramped our UltraFLEXplus product in the compute portion of the SOC market. Recall, this has historically been a $500 million to $600 million market, where we've had relatively low share. With the emergence of more players and applications in the processor market, including hyperscalers and AI, we expect this sector to outgrow the general market. The plus brings a powerful value proposition in managing the unique complexity, power dynamics, yield learning and time-to-market requirements of this segment.

2020 年，我們還在 SOC 市場的計算部分推出了 UltraFLEXplus 產品。回想一下，這在歷史上一直是一個 5 億到 6 億美元的市場，我們在那裡的份額相對較低。隨著處理器市場上更多參與者和應用的出現，包括超大規模處理器和人工智能，我們預計該領域的增長將超過一般市場。 Plus 在管理該細分市場的獨特複雜性、動力動態、收益學習和上市時間要求方面帶來了強大的價值主張。

For 2020, we estimate the SOC market was in the range of $3.4 billion to $3.5 billion, up from about $3.3 billion in 2019. We estimate our SOC test market share moved up 15 points to about 54%. However, our internal view of share smooths out year-on-year swings due to the unique timing of investment cycles of both our and our competitors' customers. By that measure, we estimate our normalized 2020 SOC share at about 50%.

到 2020 年，我們估計 SOC 市場在 34 億美元到 35 億美元之間，高於 2019 年的約 33 億美元。我們估計我們的 SOC 測試市場份額上升了 15 個百分點，達到約 54%。然而，由於我們和競爭對手客戶的投資週期的獨特時機，我們對份額的內部看法消除了同比波動。按照這一標準，我們估計 2020 年標準化的 SOC 份額約為 50%。

Another notable growth segment of our Semi Test business in 2020 was memory. In this call, a year ago, we noted a significant design win for our Magnum EPIC product in the LPDDR5 portion of the DRAM market. This new entry into DRAM test ramped through the year and combined with healthy growth in our traditional NAND business, drove a 41% increase in memory sales from 2019. We estimate the market was about $900 million in 2020, up from $600 million in 2019 and our normalized 2020 memory share at about 42%.

2020 年我們半測試業務的另一個顯著增長部分是內存。在一年前的這次電話會議中，我們注意到我們的 Magnum EPIC 產品在 DRAM 市場的 LPDDR5 部分取得了重大設計勝利。這一新進入 DRAM 測試的項目在這一年中不斷攀升，再加上我們傳統 NAND 業務的健康增長，推動內存銷售額比 2019 年增長了 41%。我們估計到 2020 年市場規模約為 9 億美元，高於 2019 年的 6 億美元，並且我們標準化的 2020 年內存份額約為 42%。

Beyond Semi Test, our System Test group also had a great year delivering 43% growth, with the Storage Test business more than doubling from 2019. This is the second consecutive year of hyper growth in Storage Test driven by steady test intensity growth of terabyte HDD drives and similar growth in the system level test of complex semiconductor devices.

除了半測試之外，我們的系統測試部門在這一年也取得了 43% 的增長，其中存儲測試業務比 2019 年增長了一倍多。這是存儲測試連續第二年高速增長，這是由 TB 硬盤測試強度的穩定增長驅動的複雜半導體器件系統級測試的驅動和類似增長。

In our Wireless Test business at LitePoint sales grew 10% from 2019, with solid demand for both our connectivity and cellular end markets. WiFi 6, ultra-wideband test and increased investments in 5G-related handset tests all contributed.

在我們的無線測試業務中，LitePoint 的銷售額比 2019 年增長了 10%，對我們的連接和蜂窩終端市場都有強勁的需求。 WiFi 6、超寬帶測試和增加對 5G 相關手機測試的投資都做出了貢獻。

The performance of our test businesses more than offset the weaker results in our industrial automation business, which contracted 6% for the year. The global slowdown in manufacturing activity led to a 12% decline in sales at our Universal Robots unit. MiR, on the other hand, grew 1% as makers of ultraviolet disinfecting products recognize the value of an easier to deploy fully autonomous mobile robot.

我們測試業務的表現足以抵消我們工業自動化業務較弱的業績，該業務全年收縮 6%。全球製造業活動放緩導致我們的優傲機器人部門銷售額下降 12%。另一方面，由於紫外線消毒產品製造商認識到更易於部署的全自動移動機器人的價值，MiR 增長了 1%。

On a pro forma basis, AutoGuide also grew for the year. While the environment in IA was weaker than expected, the business troughed in the second quarter of 2020 and has improved dramatically in the second half, including record sales at UR in the fourth quarter. Collectively, the businesses returned to year-over-year growth in Q4, with UR growing 6% year-over-year and 41% sequential growth. With test slowing -- with test showing continued strength and industrial automation returning to growth, we are set up for another exciting year in 2021. Specifically, we are expecting a strong start to the year across all our businesses, with Q1 showing greater than 6% growth at the midpoint compared to Q1 of '19 -- sorry, Q1 of '20.

在備考基礎上，AutoGuide 在這一年也有所增長。儘管 IA 的環境弱於預期，但該業務在 2020 年第二季度觸底，並在下半年大幅改善，包括 UR 在第四季度創紀錄的銷售額。總的來說，這些業務在第四季度恢復了同比增長，其中 UR 同比增長 6%，環比增長 41%。隨著測試放緩——測試顯示出持續的實力和工業自動化恢復增長，我們準備在 2021 年迎來又一個激動人心的一年。具體來說，我們預計今年所有業務都有一個強勁的開端，第一季度顯示超過 6與 19 年第一季度相比的中點增長百分比——對不起，20 年第一季度。

As you know, full year visibility is always a challenge, as evidenced by our missing the strength of the test market and the decline of the IA market in our forecast just 1 year ago. That said, let me describe how we see things today, and of course, we'll keep you updated in future calls. I will preface my remarks with a note that the well-publicized surge in the forecasted semiconductor CapEx in 2021 is a very bullish sign. However, the impact on test is likely to be felt in 2022 and beyond as fab capacity built this year will drive additional testers in future years aligned to fab commissioning and ramping volumes and yields.

如您所知，全年可見度始終是一個挑戰，正如我們在 1 年前的預測中遺漏了測試市場的實力和 IA 市場的下滑所證明的那樣。也就是說，讓我描述一下我們今天的看法，當然，我們會在以後的電話中及時通知您最新情況。在我的發言之前，我將說明 2021 年預測的半導體資本支出的廣為人知的激增是一個非常看漲的信號。然而，對測試的影響可能會在 2022 年及以後感受到，因為今年建造的晶圓廠產能將在未來幾年推動更多的測試人員與晶圓廠調試以及產量和產量的提高保持一致。

In SOC test, the dynamics that made 2020 such a strong year continue into 2021. In addition, we have strengthening demand in the long dormant automotive test market with orders for our Eagle Test product line surging. Smartphone shipments are expected to grow in 2021 after contracting about 10% in 2020, and 5G content should increase. On the other hand, the SOC test market in China will likely be down in 2021 due to the expanded and full year effects of trade restrictions that were widened in 2020. Also, as always, tester demand from our largest customer will remain opaque until sometime in Q2.

在 SOC 測試中，使 2020 年如此強勁的一年一直持續到 2021 年。此外，隨著我們的 Eagle Test 產品線訂單激增，我們對長期處於休眠狀態的汽車測試市場的需求有所增強。智能手機出貨量在 2020 年收縮約 10% 後預計將在 2021 年增長，5G 內容應該會增加。另一方面，由於 2020 年擴大的貿易限制的擴大和全年影響，中國的 SOC 測試市場可能會在 2021 年下降。此外，與往常一樣，我們最大客戶的測試器需求將保持不透明，直到某個時候在第二季度。

Additionally, the global economic impact of COVID and its impact on electronics demand after a surge in 2020, it's hard to forecast with arguments for both positive and negative effects. Taking all of that into account, we have a bit wider range in our SOC market size estimate for 2021 at $3.3 billion to $3.8 billion, up slightly from 2020 at the midpoint.

此外，COVID 對全球經濟的影響及其在 2020 年激增後對電子產品需求的影響，很難通過正面和負面影響的論據進行預測。考慮到所有這些因素，我們對 2021 年 SOC 市場規模的估計範圍更寬一些，為 33 億美元至 38 億美元，略高於 2020 年的中點。

In memory test, the transition to LPDDR5 and DDR5 should gain momentum in 2021 and beyond. After growing about 50% in 2020, we view the memory market to be in the $800 million to $1 billion range in 2021, about even with 2020 at the midpoint. In Storage Test, the underlying demand drivers of increased density in HDD and increased complexity in semi devices driving system-level test remain in place. However, visibility is limited and annual shipments can be very lumpy. After more than tripling over the last 3 years, we expect 2021 sales to be in a band of plus or minus 20% from the 2020 level. For the rest of our test businesses, we expect growth in the 5% to 10% range in 2021.

在內存測試中，向 LPDDR5 和 DDR5 的過渡應該會在 2021 年及以後獲得動力。在 2020 年增長約 50% 之後，我們認為內存市場到 2021 年將在 8 億至 10 億美元之間，大約與 2020 年處於中點持平。在存儲測試中，HDD 密度增加和半器件驅動系統級測試複雜性增加的潛在需求驅動因素仍然存在。然而，能見度有限，每年的出貨量可能非常不穩定。在過去 3 年增長了兩倍多之後，我們預計 2021 年的銷售額將比 2020 年的水平高或低 20%。對於我們其餘的測試業務，我們預計 2021 年將增長 5% 至 10%。

In Industrial Automation, 2021 is starting off on a strong footing. Barring any additional COVID-related manufacturing sector shutdowns, we expect to deliver the highest ever first quarter sales in each of our automation businesses, and we are well positioned to grow in excess of 30% for the year.

在工業自動化領域，2021 年開局良好。除非有任何額外的與 COVID 相關的製造部門停工，否則我們預計我們每個自動化業務的第一季度銷售額都將創下歷史新高，並且我們有能力在今年實現超過 30% 的增長。

2020's results reflect well on Teradyne's strategy, execution and efficiency. Our test businesses show the successful results of R&D bets made in years past and enable us to increase those bets for the future. Our Industrial Automation investments continue undeterred by short-term impacts of COVID, and we are well positioned to capitalize on a world emerging to invest even more in automation to improve resilience and productivity.

2020 年的業績很好地反映了泰瑞達的戰略、執行和效率。我們的測試業務展示了過去幾年研發賭注的成功結果，並使我們能夠為未來增加這些賭注。我們的工業自動化投資並未因 COVID 的短期影響而受阻，我們已做好充分準備，可以利用新興世界對自動化進行更多投資，以提高彈性和生產力。

Equally significant, 2020 showed the resilience of Teradyne employees, our global suppliers and our operating model. In the face of unimaginable challenges across communities worldwide, the team dealt with health, safety and operation obstacles daily, met R&D milestones, executed steep new product ramps and delivered record shipments of SOC, memory and storage tech products to meet our customers' needs. We did all this while exercising the cost and schedule discipline expected at Teradyne. This is truly extraordinary, and I am very grateful to be part of such a powerful team.

同樣重要的是，2020 年展示了泰瑞達員工、我們的全球供應商和我們的運營模式的韌性。面對全球社區難以想像的挑戰，該團隊每天都在處理健康、安全和運營障礙，達到研發里程碑，執行新產品的陡峭坡道，並交付創紀錄的 SOC、內存和存儲技術產品出貨量，以滿足客戶的需求。我們在執行泰瑞達預期的成本和進度紀律的同時完成了所有這些工作。這真的很了不起，我很高興能成為這樣一支強大團隊的一員。

As we move into 2021, the outlook appears bright across all our markets. As Sanjay will detail, we are returning to our share repurchase program and have an active M&A pipeline. As 2020 taught us, no matter what comes our way in the short term, I am confident our global team and market strategy will deliver exciting long-term returns for our customers, investors and employees.

隨著我們進入 2021 年，我們所有市場的前景似乎都很光明。正如 Sanjay 將詳述的那樣，我們將重返我們的股票回購計劃，並擁有活躍的併購渠道。正如 2020 年教會我們的那樣，無論短期內發生什麼，我相信我們的全球團隊和市場戰略將為我們的客戶、投資者和員工帶來令人興奮的長期回報。

Sanjay will now take you through the financial and modeling details. Sanjay?

Sanjay 現在將帶您了解財務和建模細節。桑傑？

Thank you, Mark. Good morning, everyone. Today, I'll cover the financial highlights of Q4 and review the financial details of 2020. Looking forward, I'll provide our Q1 outlook, an update to our midterm earnings model and our capital allocation plans.

謝謝你，馬克。大家，早安。今天，我將介紹第四季度的財務亮點並回顧 2020 年的財務細節。展望未來，我將提供我們的第一季度展望、中期收益模型的更新和我們的資本配置計劃。

Now to Q4. Revenues were $759 million, which were $19 million above the high end of the guidance range. We delivered a non-GAAP operating profit of 30% and EPS of $1.10. Semi Test revenue of $524 million was driven by SOC and memory test demand, enabling 5G handsets and higher speed flash and DRAM devices. System Test group had revenue of $104 million, down quarter-over-quarter driven by lower storage test shipments. Industrial Automation, or IA, revenue of $92 million had a seasonal increase over Q3 and delivered year-over-year growth for the first time in 2020. LitePoint revenue of $40 million was approximately flat with Q3 and down year-over-year with a decline in trailing edge connectivity products, partially offset by new sales of new connectivity technology like WiFi 6 and emerging UWB technology.

現在到第四季度。收入為 7.59 億美元，比指導範圍的上限高出 1900 萬美元。我們實現了 30% 的非 GAAP 營業利潤和 1.10 美元的每股收益。 Semi Test 收入為 5.24 億美元，受到 SOC 和內存測試需求的推動，支持 5G 手機和更高速的閃存和 DRAM 設備。系統測試部門的收入為 1.04 億美元，環比下降，原因是存儲測試出貨量下降。工業自動化 (IA) 收入為 9200 萬美元，較第三季度出現季節性增長，並在 2020 年首次實現同比增長。LitePoint 收入為 4000 萬美元，與第三季度基本持平，同比下降後緣連接產品的下降，部分被 WiFi 6 和新興 UWB 技術等新連接技術的新銷售所抵消。

Non-GAAP gross margins were 59%, on plan and up quarter-over-quarter due to product mix. You'll see our non-GAAP operating expenses were up $14 million to $224 million from the third quarter due to increased test spending to support design wins, higher payroll due to 4 extra days in the quarter and ongoing IA investments. We generated $222 million in free cash in the fourth quarter. The tax rate, excluding discrete items for the quarter was 13% on a GAAP basis and 14.5% on a non-GAAP basis. For the full year, it is 14.75% on a GAAP basis and 15.25% on a non-GAAP basis. We ended the year with cash and marketable securities of $1.55 billion.

非 GAAP 毛利率為 59%，符合計劃，並且由於產品組合而環比增長。你會看到我們的非 GAAP 運營費用比第三季度增加了 1400 萬美元至 2.24 億美元，這是由於增加了測試支出以支持設計勝利，由於本季度額外 4 天的工資增加以及正在進行的 IA 投資。我們在第四季度產生了 2.22 億美元的自由現金。本季度不包括離散項目的稅率在 GAAP 基礎上為 13%，在非 GAAP 基礎上為 14.5%。全年，按 GAAP 計算為 14.75%，按非 GAAP 計算為 15.25%。年底，我們擁有 15.5 億美元的現金和有價證券。

Turning to the full year results of 2020. Teradyne revenues of $3.12 billion grew $826 million or 36% year-over-year. $845 million of the growth was from our test portfolio, while IA contracted $18 million due to the pandemic-related slowdown. We had 1 customer that accounted for more than 10% of our revenue in 2020, which we'll disclose in our 10-K filing.

談到 2020 年的全年業績。Teradyne 的收入為 31.2 億美元，同比增長 8.26 億美元或 36%。 8.45 億美元的增長來自我們的測試產品組合，而 IA 由於與大流行相關的放緩而收縮了 1800 萬美元。我們有 1 個客戶占我們 2020 年收入的 10% 以上，我們將在我們的 10-K 文件中披露。

Gross margins for the year were 57% and operating profit was 30%, which is up from 25% in 2019.

全年毛利率為 57%，營業利潤率為 30%，高於 2019 年的 25%。

Non-GAAP EPS was $4.62, an increase of 62% over 2019. We generated $684 million in free cash in 2020.

非美國通用會計準則每股收益為 4.62 美元，比 2019 年增長 62%。我們在 2020 年產生了 6.84 億美元的自由現金。

Breaking down the components of 2020 revenues. As outlined by Mark, SOC test revenues grew $595 million or 46% on strength in mobility, market-driven by increased by device complexity and new standards like 5G along with growing growth in computing. In memory, revenues were $383 million, up 41%. While LPDDR-related DRAM revenues were a significant contributor to our results, we also continue to see strong NAND test demand through the year.

分解 2020 年收入的組成部分。正如 Mark 所概述的那樣，SOC 測試收入增長了 5.95 億美元或 46%，這主要歸功於移動性，這是由設備複雜性和 5G 等新標準的增加以及計算的增長推動的市場驅動。在內存中，收入為 3.83 億美元，增長 41%。雖然與 LPDDR 相關的 DRAM 收入對我們的業績做出了重要貢獻，但我們也繼續看到全年強勁的 NAND 測試需求。

In System Test, sales grew for the fourth year running. Revenue of $410 million grew $122 million or 43% year-over-year, primarily on growth in Storage Test for both hard disk drive and system level test. Storage Test sales were $242 million, up from $115 million in 2019. We also saw annual growth in our Defense & Aerospace component of STG.

在系統測試中，銷售額連續第四年增長。 4.1 億美元的收入同比增長 1.22 億美元或 43%，這主要是由於硬盤驅動器和系統級測試的存儲測試的增長。存儲測試銷售額為 2.42 億美元，高於 2019 年的 1.15 億美元。我們還看到了 STG 的國防和航空航天部分的年度增長。

At LitePoint, sales grew for the fourth consecutive year to $173 million, 10% above 2019. In 2020, IA revenue was $280 million, a decline of 6% from 2019 on an as-reported basis or 9% on a pro forma basis. As Mark noted, the COVID-related driven slowdown in manufacturing impacted Universal Robots, reducing revenue to $219 million, down 12% year-over-year.

LitePoint 的銷售額連續第四年增長，達到 1.73 億美元，比 2019 年增長 10%。2020 年，IA 收入為 2.8 億美元，按報告數據計算比 2019 年下降 6%，按備考計算下降 9%。正如 Mark 指出的那樣，與 COVID 相關的製造業放緩影響了 Universal Robots，收入減少至 2.19 億美元，同比下降 12%。

After troughing in Q2, UR grew in the second half of 2020 versus the first half of the year. In Q4, revenue grew 6% year-over-year, giving confidence heading into 2021. MiR grew slightly year-over-year with annual sales of $45 million, and AutoGuide full year's sales grew on a pro forma basis.

在第二季度觸底後，UR 在 2020 年下半年與上半年相比有所增長。第四季度，收入同比增長 6%，為進入 2021 年充滿信心。MiR 同比略有增長，年銷售額為 4500 萬美元，AutoGuide 全年銷售額在預估基礎上有所增長。

Now to our outlook for Q1. Sales are expected to be between $720 million and $780 million. Non-GAAP EPS range of $0.95 to $1.11 on 175 -- 179 million diluted shares. The first quarter guidance excludes amortization of acquired intangibles and the noncash imputed interest on the convertible debt. First quarter gross margins are estimated at 58% to 59%. First quarter OpEx, running at 29% to 31% of first quarter sales, is about flat with Q4 at the midpoint of guidance. The non-GAAP operating profit rate at the midpoint of our first quarter guidance is 29%.

現在我們對第一季度的展望。銷售額預計在 7.2 億美元至 7.8 億美元之間。 175 - 1.79 億股稀釋後的非美國通用會計準則每股收益在 0.95 美元至 1.11 美元之間。第一季度指引不包括已收購無形資產的攤銷和可轉換債務的非現金估算利息。第一季度毛利率預計為 58% 至 59%。第一季度運營支出佔第一季度銷售額的 29% 至 31%，與第四季度的指引中點持平。我們第一季度指引中點的非美國通用會計準則營業利潤率為 29%。

Regarding our OpEx plans for 2021, we expect our OpEx to grow 8% to 10% from 2020's $840 million. Approximately 2 points of the spend will be in the back half of the year related to travel, which we expect to resume to pre-COVID levels along with trade shows. In our test portfolio, we plan to increase our spending in engineering, sales and marketing, primarily in Semi Test. In IA, we'll continue to invest to reinforce our competitive product and ecosystem position across the sector. Also in IA, go-to-market investments will be made to support expected revenue growth.

關於我們 2021 年的運營支出計劃，我們預計我們的運營支出將從 2020 年的 8.4 億美元增長 8% 至 10%。大約 2 個百分點的支出將在今年下半年與旅行相關，我們預計旅行將隨著貿易展覽恢復到 COVID 之前的水平。在我們的測試組合中，我們計劃增加我們在工程、銷售和營銷方面的支出，主要是在半測試方面。在 IA 方面，我們將繼續投資以加強我們在整個行業的競爭產品和生態系統地位。同樣在 IA，將進行上市投資以支持預期的收入增長。

Turning to capital expenditures. In 2020, our CapEx was $185 million. This was used primarily for customer demonstration equipment, operations, engineering and initial spending on new facilities to replace leased ones in locations where we plan to grow over the next several years. We'll continue to invest in these new facilities in 2021, so CapEx is expected to be similar to 2020. Recall, we are buying land and developing it to eliminate lease costs and enable a more efficient spend profile over the mid- to long-term.

轉向資本支出。 2020 年，我們的資本支出為 1.85 億美元。這主要用於客戶演示設備、運營、工程和新設施的初始支出，以取代我們計劃在未來幾年發展的地點的租賃設施。我們將在 2021 年繼續投資於這些新設施，因此資本支出預計與 2020 年相似。回想一下，我們正在購買土地並對其進行開發，以消除租賃成本，並在中長期內實現更高效的支出狀況-學期。

For 2021, our GAAP tax rate is estimated at 15.5% and our non-GAAP tax rate is estimated at 16% based on current tax laws.

根據現行稅法，2021 年我們的 GAAP 稅率估計為 15.5%，我們的非 GAAP 稅率估計為 16%。

Moving to our midterm earnings model. As you've seen with 2020, our non-GAAP EPS of $4.62, we've exceeded our 2022 earnings model 2 years early on the strength of our test businesses. We continue to have confidence in the long-term growth outlook for test, and we expect IA to return to high growth as the global industrial economy improves. When building our midterm model, given our year-on-year demand swings, we've seen both in test and IA, we use the average of 2019 and 2020 revenues as the baseline for our growth projections. From that baseline, we expect test revenue to grow 4% to 8% compounded and IA revenues to grow 20% to 35% through 2024.

轉到我們的中期收益模型。正如您在 2020 年看到的那樣，我們的非 GAAP 每股收益為 4.62 美元，憑藉我們測試業務的實力，我們提前 2 年超過了 2022 年的盈利模式。我們繼續對長期增長前景充滿信心，隨著全球工業經濟好轉，我們預計IA將重回高增長。在構建我們的中期模型時，考慮到我們的年度需求波動，我們在測試和 IA 中都看到，我們使用 2019 年和 2020 年收入的平均值作為我們增長預測的基線。基於該基線，我們預計到 2024 年，測試收入將復合增長 4% 至 8%，IA 收入將增長 20% 至 35%。

In test, we expect that growth will be driven by steady increase in device complexity across our businesses along with the high single-digit semiconductor unit growth trend line. In IA, market penetration of cobots and autonomous mobile robots and forklifts remains low, while the range of applications they economically serve continues to expand, resulting in an attractive long-term growth opportunity for Teradyne. We expect this will drive 2024 company revenue to $3.9 billion and non-GAAP EPS to $6 at the midpoint of our estimates.

在測試中，我們預計增長將受到我們業務中設備複雜性穩步增加以及高單位數半導體單位增長趨勢線的推動。在 IA，協作機器人、自主移動機器人和叉車的市場滲透率仍然很低，而它們以經濟方式服務的應用範圍繼續擴大，從而為泰瑞達帶來了極具吸引力的長期增長機會。我們預計這將推動 2024 年公司收入達到 39 億美元，非 GAAP 每股收益達到我們估計的中點 6 美元。

Gross margin is modeled at 58% to 59%, OpEx as a percentage of sales will decline to 28% to 29% and non-GAAP operating margin will improve to 30% to 31%. The model assumes the current tax laws are in place.

毛利率模型為 58% 至 59%，運營支出佔銷售額的百分比將下降至 28% 至 29%，非 GAAP 營業利潤率將提高至 30% 至 31%。該模型假設現行稅法已經到位。

Shifting to capital allocation. We'll continue to balance a strong cash position to support our operating investments and potential M&A with direct shareholder returns through dividends and share repurchases. We are raising our minimum cash levels from $1 billion to $1.25 billion, with the $250 million increase tied to the increased valuations of potential acquisitions.

轉向資本配置。我們將繼續平衡強勁的現金狀況，以支持我們的運營投資和潛在的併購，並通過股息和股票回購為股東帶來直接回報。我們將最低現金水平從 10 億美元提高到 12.5 億美元，其中 2.5 億美元的增加與潛在收購估值的增加有關。

Recall, we held $500 million for M&A and $500 million for severe economic downturn. We will also be increasing our cash balance in 2021 through 2023 to service our convertible bond, which comes due in December 2023. To date, $51 million of that bond has been redeemed early with payment planned in Q1, with the remaining face value of $409 million.

回想一下，我們為併購持有 5 億美元，為嚴重的經濟衰退持有 5 億美元。我們還將在 2021 年至 2023 年增加現金餘額，以償還將於 2023 年 12 月到期的可轉換債券。迄今為止，該債券中的 5100 萬美元已提前贖回，計劃在第一季度付款，剩餘面值為 409 美元百萬。

Regarding share repurchases. In 2020, we bought back $1.5 million -- sorry, 1.5 million shares for $88 million at an average price of $58.32. Recall, we suspended our share repurchase program in April due to COVID-related uncertainty. We are replacing our prior approved program with a new share repurchase authorization of $2 billion with no fixed end date. We plan a minimum of $600 million of repurchases in 2021. As in the past, the plan has both a programmatic and opportunistic components.

關於股份回購。 2020 年，我們以 58.32 美元的平均價格以 8800 萬美元的價格回購了 150 萬美元——對不起，150 萬股。回想一下，由於與 COVID 相關的不確定性，我們在 4 月份暫停了我們的股票回購計劃。我們正在用 20 億美元的新股票回購授權取代我們之前批准的計劃，並且沒有固定的結束日期。我們計劃在 2021 年至少進行 6 億美元的回購。與過去一樣，該計劃既有計劃性的，也有機會性的。

In summary, 2020 inflicted incredible human and economic hardship on societies across the world, and we're respectful of the widespread pain and loss. When the pandemic hit, I noted our priorities were the safety of our employees, supporting our customers and continued execution in achieving our financial objectives. The Teradyne community responded with a collaborative and supportive spirit, incredible energy, ingenuity and purpose, which delivered on all 3 of these priorities. I'm incredibly proud and thankful to be part of this team.

總而言之，2020 年給世界各地的社會帶來了難以置信的人類和經濟困難，我們對普遍存在的痛苦和損失表示尊重。當大流行來襲時，我注意到我們的首要任務是員工的安全、支持我們的客戶以及繼續執行實現我們的財務目標。泰瑞達社區以協作和支持的精神、令人難以置信的活力、獨創性和目標作出回應，實現了所有這 3 個優先事項。我為成為這個團隊的一員感到無比自豪和感激。

We enter 2021 in the strongest position in our history. The work in 2020 has made us more resilient and prepared us for the strong market demand that we currently see in both test and IA. While our visibility for the full year is limited, we're confident in the underlying market fundamentals, our competitive, diversified portfolio and our team, which will enable long-term growth prospects for the markets we serve. Collectively, we're excited to turn our new financial model into reality.

進入 2021 年，我們處於歷史上最強的位置。 2020 年的工作使我們更有彈性，並為我們目前在測試和 IA 中看到的強勁市場需求做好了準備。雖然我們全年的能見度有限，但我們對潛在的市場基本面、我們具有競爭力的多元化投資組合和我們的團隊充滿信心，這將為我們所服務的市場帶來長期增長前景。總的來說，我們很高興將我們的新財務模型變為現實。

With that, I'll turn things back to Andy.

有了這個，我會把事情還給安迪。

Thanks, Sanjay. Operator, we'd now like to take some questions. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝，桑傑。接線員，我們現在想回答一些問題。 （操作員說明）

(Operator Instructions) First question comes from Krish Sankar with Cowen.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自 Krish Sankar 和 Cowen。

Mark, I had two of them. First one, thanks for the color on calendar '21. I'm just kind of curious if you could peel the SOC Test market a little more to say, how much do you think mobility will be? And how much do you think Auto Test would be this year on SOC? And then I have a follow-up.

馬克，我有兩個。第一個，感謝日曆 '21 上的顏色。我只是有點好奇，您是否可以更深入地了解 SOC 測試市場，您認為移動性會有多大？您認為今年在 SOC 上的自動測試會有多少？然後我有一個後續行動。

Yes. So good question. Certainly, auto is going to be up sequentially in 2020. We've talked about that market being at a normalized -- let's say, maybe more of a peak run rate in the $400 million to $500 million range. It's been down to sort of $200 million last year. So this year, that should be up at least $150 million, maybe $200 million. It's really right now a bit of a rush for capacity. And we don't know exactly when the demand profile of the orders are going to taper off here. So it could go higher if this persists. So that's the color on auto.

是的。好問題。當然，汽車將在 2020 年連續上升。我們已經討論過該市場處於正常化狀態——比方說，可能更多的是在 4 億美元到 5 億美元範圍內的峰值運行率。去年已經下降到大約 2 億美元。所以今年，這應該至少增加 1.5 億美元，也許是 2 億美元。現在確實有點急於增加容量。而且我們不知道訂單的需求狀況何時會在這裡逐漸減少。因此，如果這種情況持續下去，它可能會走高。這就是汽車的顏色。

In mobility, I think it's harder for us to see that at the moment because of the significant impact of our largest customer on both us and the market, which doesn't really become solidified until April-ish of the year. So we're looking at it sort of flat, plus or minus $100 million in mobility.

在流動性方面，我認為我們目前更難看到這一點，因為我們最大的客戶對我們和市場都有重大影響，直到今年四月左右才真正鞏固。所以我們看它有點持平，加上或減去 1 億美元的流動性。

Got it. Got it. That's very helpful, Mark. And then just as a follow-up on the IA side. You mentioned 30-plus-percent growth, should we assume a big driver of that is going to be UR? In other words, UR should be higher than 30%? Or do you think UR is going to be in line with Industrial Automation growth?

知道了。知道了。這很有幫助，馬克。然後作為 IA 方面的後續行動。你提到了 30% 以上的增長，我們是否應該假設其中的主要推動力是 UR？也就是說，UR應該高於30%？還是您認為 UR 會與工業自動化的增長保持一致？

Yes. I think that's a good question. I think all of the groups are going to be better than 30%. And some of them like AutoGuide are small. So I think they'll pull up the average, albeit ahead of UR. And MiR and UR should be about the same for the year.

是的。我認為這是一個很好的問題。我認為所有的組都會超過 30%。其中一些像 AutoGuide 很小。所以我認為他們會拉高平均水平，儘管領先於 UR。而 MiR 和 UR 的年份應該差不多。

Next question comes from Mehdi Hosseini with SIG.

下一個問題來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

I just want to go back to your SOC commentary. I'm a little bit surprised with your kind of flattish outlook. And I say that because millimeter wave is expected to account for a larger mix of the 5G phones. And I believe last year was just the early investment. So why isn't the increased penetration of millimeter wave phone not giving you that incremental confidence? And I have a follow-up.

我只想回到你的 SOC 評論。我對你這種平庸的觀點感到有點驚訝。我之所以這麼說，是因為預計毫米波將佔 5G 手機的更大比例。我相信去年只是早期投資。那麼，為什麼毫米波電話普及率的提高沒有給您增加信心呢？我有一個後續行動。

Yes. I think that's certainly a balloon for the year, Mehdi. Maybe we're going to double the number of millimeter wave-enabled phones in 2021. But yes, last year, if you recall, there was also a significant step-up in the hundreds of millions of units of millimeter wave-enabled phones were brought to market last year. So if you add another 200 million to 300 million additional millimeter wave-enabled units this year and, let's say, that brings the global total to 600 million units out of 1.4 billion, you're essentially adding about as much capacity, maybe a little bit more because there'll be more than -- let's say, last year, added 250 million, this year, might add 350 million units. So yes, there will be a little bit of growth in additional millimeter wave test capacity. But last year was a pretty big year, too.

是的。我認為這肯定是今年的氣球，Mehdi。也許我們將在 2021 年將支持毫米波的手機數量翻一番。但是，是的，如果你還記得的話，去年，數億部支持毫米波的手機也有了顯著的增長。去年推向市場。因此，如果你今年再增加 2 億到 3 億個支持毫米波的裝置，比方說，這將使全球總數達到 14 億個中的 6 億個，你實際上增加了大約同樣多的容量，也許是一點點多一點，因為會有超過 - 比方說，去年增加了 2.5 億台，今年可能增加 3.5 億台。所以是的，額外的毫米波測試能力會有一點增長。但去年也是相當重要的一年。

Got it. And then looking at the midterm model 2024. What are the key underlying assumption for market share, especially as you try to capitalize on the synergies between Semi and a System Test? And in that context, are you accounting for any incremental share shift in the GPU end market?

知道了。然後看看 2024 年的中期模型。市場份額的關鍵基本假設是什麼，尤其是當您試圖利用半成品和系統測試之間的協同作用時？在這種情況下，您是否考慮了 GPU 終端市場的任何增量份額轉移？

Yes. Mehdi, it's Sanjay. Yes. So in the earnings model, we see, obviously, growth in the market. As Mark alluded to, more players are coming into the compute space that we can address. And with that, we feel that with the UltraFLEXplus solution, we're very well positioned, and we are projecting share growth. When we think about from a memory perspective, if you go back, let's say, 10 years, we've been on this steady increase of memory share growth, where as we continue to execute, we see continued share growth on that perspective as well. So really, growth in market size as well as continued share growth are our drivers.

是的。邁赫迪，我是桑傑。是的。因此，在盈利模型中，我們顯然看到了市場的增長。正如 Mark 所暗示的那樣，越來越多的參與者正在進入我們可以解決的計算空間。因此，我們認為通過 UltraFLEXplus 解決方案，我們處於非常有利的位置，並且我們預計份額會增長。當我們從內存的角度考慮時，如果你回頭看，比方說，10 年，我們一直在穩步增加內存份額增長，隨著我們繼續執行，我們也看到從這個角度來看份額持續增長.所以說真的，市場規模的增長以及份額的持續增長是我們的驅動力。

That includes the synergy between different sectors or segments?

這包括不同部門或部門之間的協同作用？

You want to expand on that question?

你想擴展這個問題嗎？

Yes. Just going back to the question. I see opportunities between your Semi and a System Test, especially as the system-level test diversifies. And I'm just wondering if that's baked into your 2024 model?

是的。回到問題。我看到了您的半測試和系統測試之間的機會，尤其是在系統級測試多樣化的情況下。我只是想知道這是否融入了您的 2024 模型？

Yes. Okay. Thanks for the clarification. Yes, it is. With device complexity, we were going 5-nanometer and then to 3-nanometer, I think both system-level test as well as ATE test take that into account.

是的。好的。感謝您的澄清。是的。由於設備的複雜性，我們先是 5 納米，然後是 3 納米，我認為系統級測試和 ATE 測試都考慮到了這一點。

Next question comes from Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

Mark, I wanted to ask about your largest customer. I appreciate things will remain pretty fuzzy or opaque, as you said, until sort of the April-ish time frame. But can you sort of walk us through the potential range of outcomes you're thinking internally? Obviously, you've got units, you've got transistor density as it relates to the new chip. Also curious if their efforts on the notebook side of their business, in-sourcing CPUs, could have an impact on your business as well? And then I've got a quick follow-up.

馬克，我想問問你最大的客戶。正如您所說，直到 4 月份左右的時間框架，事情仍將非常模糊或不透明，我對此表示讚賞。但是您能否向我們介紹一下您在內部考慮的潛在結果範圍？顯然，你有單位，你有與新芯片相關的晶體管密度。還想知道他們在筆記本業務方面的努力（內購 CPU）是否也會對您的業務產生影響？然後我有一個快速的跟進。

Okay. I always am a bit reluctant to be too specific on any 1 customer. So I'm going to speak more to the segment a bit, which I'll bundle compute and mobility together here. So yes, last year was incredibly strong in both our traditional mobility market because of the complexity growth of phones, which we alluded to and the fact that we did enter compute as a new segment. So we ended up with additional revenues in compute last year, that north of $50 million for the first year in that market.

好的。我總是有點不願意對任何一位客戶過於具體。因此，我將對這個部分進行更多討論，我將在這裡將計算和移動性捆綁在一起。所以是的，去年我們的傳統移動市場非常強勁，因為我們提到了手機的複雜性增長，以及我們確實將計算作為一個新領域進入的事實。因此，我們去年在計算領域獲得了額外收入，在該市場的第一年就超過了 5000 萬美元。

So as we think about this year, the issue of smartphone unit growth and complexity growth of the apps processor, the camera systems and such in the phones is part of the equation. And we have a reasonably good read on that.

因此，當我們考慮今年時，智能手機的單位增長和應用程序處理器、攝像頭系統等手機的複雜性增長的問題是等式的一部分。我們對此有相當好的閱讀。

On the compute side, there's a lot of moving parts there. And there's a lot -- since it's a new market for us and a new market for some of our customers, that has the bigger range of potential outcomes for the year. So that's the one we're triangulating on. That could be up significantly over last year. It could be up modestly over last year. But at this point, we really can't be too specific.

在計算方面，那裡有很多活動部件。還有很多——因為這對我們來說是一個新市場，對我們的一些客戶來說也是一個新市場，所以今年的潛在結果範圍更大。這就是我們要進行三角測量的那個。這可能比去年大幅上升。它可能比去年小幅上升。但在這一點上，我們真的不能太具體。

Got it. And then as a quick follow-up. On Industrial Automation, I wanted to ask about the profit margin profile of the business, where does it stand today, I guess, as of 2020? You guys have done a great job in improving gross margin at UR and the other businesses that you've acquired over the past couple of years. At the same time, you've been aggressively spending from an OpEx perspective. So in your 2024 model, what sort of margin profile for IA is embedded in your numbers?

知道了。然後作為快速跟進。在工業自動化方面，我想問一下該業務的利潤率情況，我想，截至 2020 年，今天的情況如何？你們在提高 UR 和你們過去幾年收購的其他企業的毛利率方面做得很好。同時，從 OpEx 的角度來看，您一直在積極支出。那麼在您的 2024 年模型中，您的數字中嵌入了什麼樣的 IA 利潤率？

It's Sanjay. So IA as a whole this year was roughly just a bit better than breakeven. Obviously, with the COVID impact on multiple businesses and the contraction in UR, we're just above breakeven. But fundamentally, we continue to invest in the portfolio, the ecosystem, the go-to-market for product and differentiation, ease of implementation. And so you should expect that to continue over the midterm, and we're focused on driving the revenue growth and the investments.

是桑傑。因此，今年 IA 總體上比收支平衡略好一點。顯然，由於 COVID 對多項業務的影響以及 UR 的收縮，我們剛剛達到收支平衡。但從根本上說，我們繼續投資於產品組合、生態系統、產品上市和差異化、易於實施。因此，您應該期望這種情況會在中期繼續，我們專注於推動收入增長和投資。

And so with that, we expect the margin profile to be roughly consistent with the current profile as we -- as AutoGuide is relatively new to the organization, just over a year, we expect that to improve with our Teradyne supply chain as well as other quality processes we step in.

因此，我們預計利潤率概況與我們目前的概況大致一致 - 由於 AutoGuide 對組織來說相對較新，僅僅一年多，我們預計我們的 Teradyne 供應鏈以及其他供應鏈將得到改善我們介入的質量流程。

Just one thing I'm going to add on to that commentary around the Industrial Automation business to remind people that what we focus on right now during the high growth phase of that business is sales growth and gross margin. And the bottom line, as Sanjay mentioned, if we're at breakeven, we're happy as long as we can sort of adhere to or exceed the rule of 40. And through the midterm, we think we expect to be close to that kind of up top line growth rates. And what we bring down to the bottom line will kind of depend on the size of the growth, what we see ahead of us. And if we're growing at 50% and breakeven, we are happy as clams. And if the growth rates come down below 20%, we'll start dropping more and more down to the bottom line.

我將在圍繞工業自動化業務的評論中添加一件事，以提醒人們，在該業務的高增長階段，我們現在關注的是銷售增長和毛利率。底線，正如 Sanjay 提到的，如果我們處於盈虧平衡狀態，只要我們能夠堅持或超過 40 的規則，我們就會很高興。在中期，我們認為我們希望接近那個一種最高的增長率。我們降低底線的內容將在某種程度上取決於增長的規模，以及我們對未來的看法。如果我們以 50% 的速度增長並實現收支平衡，我們就會像蛤蜊一樣快樂。如果增長率下降到 20% 以下，我們將開始越來越多地下降到底線。

Next question comes from Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的喬摩爾。

Following on the last question. Can you just characterize the tone of business for the Universal Robotics business? And I guess in the context of -- it feels like a lot of the business activity in the last 12 months is business continuity and supply chain disruption, maybe that's negative for new technologies and manufacturing. At the same time, I would think social distancing and stuff like that as an opportunity for you. So just kind of characterize those puts and takes, and just what that tells you about what the trends may look like over the course of this year.

接著上一個問題。您能描述一下優傲機器人業務的基調嗎？我想在這樣的背景下——感覺過去 12 個月的很多業務活動都是業務連續性和供應鏈中斷，這可能對新技術和製造業不利。與此同時，我認為社交距離之類的東西對你來說是一個機會。因此，只要描述一下這些看跌期權的特徵，以及它告訴你今年的趨勢可能是什麼樣的。

Yes. Sure. It's Sanjay here. So in the short run, we actually saw a contraction as evidenced by how our revenues were. However, I think your comments hit home with regards to plant and warehouse decision-makers seeking to build resilience into their supply chains. And we view that over the midterm as a tailwind. We are seeing the market obviously come back with Universal Robots. We've talked in our prepared remarks about the automotive and electronics industry. And then we're also seeing strength in a couple of other verticals.

是的。當然。我是桑傑。所以在短期內，我們實際上看到了收縮，這可以從我們的收入情況中看出。但是，我認為您的評論對於尋求在其供應鏈中建立彈性的工廠和倉庫決策者來說是切中要害的。我們將中期視為順風。我們看到市場明顯回歸了 Universal Robots。我們在準備好的評論中談到了汽車和電子行業。然後我們也看到了其他幾個垂直領域的實力。

Next question comes from C.J. Muse with Evercore.

下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 C.J. Muse。

I wanted to follow-up on Mehdi's question regarding your 2024 model. So if I look at your implied Semi Test revenues versus 2020 actual, you're up about $250 million to $350 million, which seems conservative, particularly when you reflect on what you're doing with system-level test, new UltraFLEXplus. So can you, I guess, walk through what assumptions you're making in terms of market share for both SOC and memory implied in that number? And where you might point to as areas that might be conservative?

我想跟進 Mehdi 關於您的 2024 模型的問題。因此，如果我看一下你的隱含半測試收入與 2020 年實際收入的對比，你會增加大約 2.5 億至 3.5 億美元，這似乎是保守的，特別是當你反思你在系統級測試方面所做的事情時，新的 UltraFLEXplus。那麼，我想，您能否根據該數字所隱含的 SOC 和內存的市場份額，了解您所做的假設？您可能指出哪些地方可能是保守的？

Yes. I think that as I articulated from -- I'll touch on memory first. Our share right now is in the low 40s. We see that -- we could see that growing to the mid-40s in the plan. And then from an SOC perspective, Mark talked about a normalized share level of about 50%. And we see that increasing over the midterm.

是的。我認為，正如我所闡述的——我將首先談及記憶。我們現在的份額在 40 多歲左右。我們看到了——我們可以看到在計劃中增長到 40 年代中期。然後從 SOC 的角度來看，Mark 談到了大約 50% 的標準化份額水平。我們看到這種情況在中期會增加。

But within the implied model, are you assuming the 50% or the 60% that Mark spoke about back in July as to what a goal could look like?

但在隱含模型中，你是假設馬克在 7 月份談到的目標可能是什麼樣子的 50% 或 60%？

So yes, I think what we've been saying, C.J., is that we can get about 1 point to 1.5 points a share growth a year. So by 2024, as I mentioned, I think our normalized share is somewhere around 50%. We should be up around 55%, 56% by then in SOC.

所以，是的，我認為我們一直在說，C.J.，我們每年可以獲得大約 1 到 1.5 點的份額增長。所以到 2024 年，正如我提到的，我認為我們的標準化份額約為 50%。屆時我們的 SOC 應該上漲 55% 左右，上漲 56%。

And in memory, share was a little chunkier because there's only a few players there. So on the memory side, we could be in the mid to upper mid-40s by then, I would say, is one way to think about it.

在記憶中，份額有點大，因為那裡只有少數玩家。因此，在內存方面，我想說，到那時我們可能處於 40 年代中期到中期，這是一種思考方式。

But the other piece of color in terms of aggressive versus conservative that I'd add here is the recent investment profile of the front end with CapEx moving up into the $70 billion range, is something we haven't modeled into our midterm plan. We've assumed that incremental fab capacity across the midterm would be sort of consistent with the rate that it's been added for the prior 4 years. So if $70-plus billion of investment in WFE is the new normal for the next 4 years, that's certainly going to drive more tests than we modeled.

但我要在這裡添加的另一種積極與保守的顏色是最近前端的投資概況，資本支出上升到 700 億美元的範圍，這是我們沒有模擬到我們的中期計劃中的東西。我們假設中期的晶圓廠產能增量將與前 4 年增加的速度保持一致。因此，如果 70 多億美元的 WFE 投資成為未來 4 年的新常態，那肯定會推動比我們模擬的更多的測試。

Very helpful. As my follow-up, can you speak to what we should be thinking about for SOC Test gross margins here in '21 versus 2020? I'm trying to get a sense of what uplift might look like, particularly from Eagle Test.

非常有幫助。作為我的後續行動，您能否談談我們應該考慮 21 年與 2020 年的 SOC 測試毛利率？我正在嘗試了解提升可能是什麼樣子，尤其是來自 Eagle Test。

I mean gross margins, we -- you should expect a relatively consistent with how we've guided Q1 and in our long-term model.

我的意思是毛利率，我們 - 你應該期望與我們指導第一季度和我們的長期模型的方式相對一致。

Next question comes from Brian Chin with Stifel.

下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Brian Chin。

Maybe the first question, back on the topic of Industrial Automation. Automotive has historically been a key portion of sales here. And I was curious, do you expect or even need the auto portion of your sales to grow 30% year-over-year, given sort of the increasing breadth of market adoption that you might be seeing?

也許是第一個問題，回到工業自動化的話題。汽車歷來是這裡銷售的關鍵部分。我很好奇，鑑於您可能看到的市場採用範圍越來越廣，您是否期望甚至需要銷售額的汽車部分同比增長 30%？

Yes. I think that with an emerging market, there's still a lot of footprint to cover, so we expect that to continue in the automotive vertical as well as electronics and industrials as well as other verticals.

是的。我認為對於一個新興市場，仍有很多足跡需要覆蓋，因此我們預計汽車垂直領域以及電子和工業以及其他垂直領域將繼續如此。

Okay. Yes, I was just sort of get -- trying to gauge whether you're seeing a lot of adoption outside of auto? And is it -- in terms of visibility, you're starting the year with pretty good visibility. Is auto kind of starting from a similar point? Or is it kind of more -- a little bit more on the whole to start the year, and you're going to expect a bigger snap back later in the year?

好的。是的，我只是有點想知道你是否在汽車之外看到了很多采用？是嗎——就知名度而言，你以相當不錯的知名度開始了這一年。汽車是從類似的點開始的嗎？或者是更多 - 整體上開始今年多一點，你會期待今年晚些時候有更大的反彈？

Yes. We're seeing also -- we're seeing market drivers in our verticals, adoption and education. R&D, pharma as well as life sciences. But from a starting point, obviously, we have a very strong incumbent installed base over the years that we've built in the auto vertical.

是的。我們也看到了——我們在我們的垂直領域、採用和教育中看到了市場驅動力。研發、製藥和生命科學。但從一開始，很明顯，多年來我們在汽車垂直領域建立了非常強大的現有安裝基礎。

And I'd just add to that, that certainly, automotive was one of the most hard hit aspects of UR's business. Automotive has been running in the high 30s, 40% of the business coming into 2020. That contracted dramatically because of COVID, down to the point that it was in the low 20s. And I would say it's certainly, at this point, although back and growing, it hasn't come back yet to where it should be in our portfolio. This has issues around the semiconductor supply chain and other things have sort of crimped some of the ambitions of car companies to ramp volumes here. There's a little bit to go still.

我還要補充一點，當然，汽車是 UR 業務中受災最嚴重的方面之一。汽車業一直處於 30 多歲的高點，40% 的業務進入 2020 年。由於 COVID，這一數字急劇收縮，降至 20 多歲的低點。我要說的是，在這一點上，雖然它正在恢復和增長，但它還沒有回到我們投資組合中應該出現的位置。這在半導體供應鍊和其他方面都存在問題，這在某種程度上削弱了汽車公司在這裡提高銷量的一些雄心。還有一點要走。

But our footprint over time, since we acquired UR has been reducing in the automotive segment, not so much because automotive is not growing, of course, but it's just that our expansion into the other areas that Sanjay mentioned has been. And we expect over time that automotive component will continue to decline as a percentage of our sales.

但隨著時間的推移，自從我們收購 UR 以來，我們在汽車領域的足跡一直在減少，當然，並不是因為汽車沒有增長，而是我們向 Sanjay 提到的其他領域的擴張。我們預計，隨著時間的推移，汽車零部件占我們銷售額的百分比將繼續下降。

Great. Yes. I was sort of getting maybe at that. And then in the 2024 model, granted it's 4 years out, but can you give us sort of a rough sense of how much of the IA sales might be AMR or mobile vehicle driven? I think the split roughly is kind of 80% UR, 20% mobile at the moment. Could that be sort of like a 2/3, 1/3 in that time frame?

偉大的。是的。我有點明白了。然後在 2024 模型中，假設它已經 4 年了，但是你能給我們一個粗略的概念，即 IA 銷售中有多少可能是 AMR 或移動車輛驅動的嗎？我認為目前的劃分大致是 80% UR，20% 移動。在那個時間範圍內，這可能有點像 2/3、1/3 嗎？

Yes. I think that, obviously, UR, we've had for a little bit longer, and it is a larger percentage. But I think you're spot on that the AMR portion will grow with AutoGuide and MiR as a percentage of revenue.

是的。我認為，很明顯，UR，我們已經有一段時間了，而且比例更大。但我認為你發現 AMR 部分將隨著 AutoGuide 和 MiR 佔收入的百分比增長。

Next question comes from Atif Malik with Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗的 Atif Malik。

Good job on results and guide. Mark, the first one, following up on the last question, AutoGuide, how is adoption going at larger enterprises and warehouse customers? And then I have a follow-up.

在結果和指導方面做得很好。馬克，第一個，跟進最後一個問題，AutoGuide，大型企業和倉庫客戶的採用情況如何？然後我有一個後續行動。

Yes. Good question. So to be frank with you, we had a good year. We grew 50-ish-percent in the year, but we didn't hit our target. And part of this is extended evaluations at the large accounts that you're referencing. And it's been very difficult in a small business like AutoGuide's case in a COVID area to acquire new customers and get the pilot production validation work done in the same time frame that we could have gotten it done in a non-COVID world.

是的。好問題。所以坦率地說，我們度過了美好的一年。我們在這一年增長了 50% 左右，但沒有達到目標。其中一部分是對您所引用的大客戶的擴展評估。在 AutoGuide 這樣的小型企業中，像 AutoGuide 在 COVID 地區的案例一樣，很難在我們本可以在非 COVID 世界中完成的時間範圍內獲得新客戶並完成試生產驗證工作。

So we've seen some extension of those evals, but we're in some of the boutique name brands for evals that you would hope we are in, in both the industrial manufacturing side as well as the e-commerce side and logistics side of life.

所以我們已經看到了這些評估的一些擴展，但是我們在一些你希望我們參與的精品名牌評估中，在工業製造方面以及電子商務方面和物流方面生活。

So we're hoping that this year is going to be the big breakout year. It's the kind of business that should at least be doubling, if not more, once these big accounts latch. But we did -- if any place sort of had a big impact from COVID last year, it was AutoGuide because of the whole -- new customer acquisition is the whole game there at this point.

所以我們希望今年將成為突破性的一年。一旦這些大客戶鎖定，這種業務至少應該翻一番，如果不是更多的話。但我們做到了——如果去年有任何地方受到 COVID 的重大影響，那就是 AutoGuide，因為整個——新客戶的獲取是目前的全部遊戲。

Great. And as a follow-up, you mentioned the China SOC Test to be down this year, which makes sense given the restrictions from last year, but some of the front end peers have talked about maybe flattish China investments on the front end and back end is different. Can you just walk us through the components on where China investments are down? And why you aren't benefiting on some of the mature technologies and nodes?

偉大的。作為後續行動，你提到今年中國 SOC 測試將下降，考慮到去年的限制，這是有道理的，但一些前端同行談到中國在前端和後端的投資可能持平是不同的。您能否簡單介紹一下中國投資下降的組成部分？為什麼您沒有從一些成熟的技術和節點中受益？

Yes. So if you look at China, I think you need to separate memory and SOC because it's quite different. On the memory side, there will be growth in China this year in test as well and we -- or we expect that at least. And so that's a healthy, growing midterm profile, I'd say, for China.

是的。所以如果你看看中國，我認為你需要將內存和 SOC 分開，因為它們完全不同。在內存方面，今年中國的測試也將有所增長，我們 - 或者我們至少預計如此。因此，我想說，對於中國來說，這是一個健康的、不斷增長的中期概況。

On SOC, it's really a little bit more difficult to see growth occurring this year because the impact of the trade restrictions on Huawei and HiSilicon are tremendous in terms of their buying power in the market historically. What they buy in both silicon and then test capacity for that silicon has been severely hampered. And then further restrictions on other companies like SMIC and such are much smaller factors, but tail or headwinds against growth.

在 SOC 方面，今年要實現增長確實有點困難，因為貿易限制對華為和海思的影響從歷史上看在市場上的購買力是巨大的。他們在矽片中購買的東西以及該矽片的測試能力都受到了嚴重阻礙。然後對中芯國際等其他公司的進一步限制是小得多的因素，但對增長不利或不利。

So I think SOC is likely to contract. Memory is going to grow. But net-net, it's not going to be hugely down, but it will probably be down a little bit on the test side of life.

所以我認為SOC很可能收縮。記憶力會增長。但是 net-net，它不會大幅下降，但它可能會在生活的測試方面下降一點。

Next question comes from Vivek Arya with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Vivek Arya。

I had two, one on operating leverage and the second on M&A. On operating leverage, Sanjay, I believe you mentioned OpEx growth of 8% to 10% this year. Do you think there is a potential to still drive leverage with that kind of growth? And then when I look at your 2024 model, you're keeping operating margins at about 30%, 31%, kind of where you are already, even though sales are expected to grow, and Mark had outlined a number of interesting growth drivers. So I was hoping you could talk to operating leverage this year, and then what would be the drivers as you look at your '24 model?

我有兩個，一個關於經營槓桿，第二個關於併購。關於經營槓桿，Sanjay，我相信你提到今年 OpEx 增長了 8% 到 10%。您認為這種增長仍有可能推動槓桿作用嗎？然後，當我查看您的 2024 年模型時，您將營業利潤率保持在 30%、31% 左右，這與您已經達到的水平相當，儘管銷售額預計會增長，而且馬克概述了一些有趣的增長動力。所以我希望你能談談今年的經營槓桿，然後當你看到你的 24 模型時，驅動因素是什麼？

Okay. Sure. Yes. So obviously, it's another -- it's an investment year. And I think in my prepared remarks, I noted that we're getting back to travel and trade shows, which is a key point. You really -- if you look at it in 2 portfolios, we -- for the year, we're going to have leverage in the test business, where the growth in OpEx as a percentage will be lower, but the growth in the IA space, the OpEx growth is higher. And so the leverage from a -- like we're growing in the IA space, but we will see -- we should see a degree of leverage in the short-term in the test business.

好的。當然。是的。很明顯，這是另一個 - 這是一個投資年。我想在我準備好的發言中，我注意到我們正在回到旅遊和貿易展覽會，這是一個關鍵點。你真的 - 如果你在 2 個投資組合中看它，我們 - 今年，我們將在測試業務中發揮影響力，其中 OpEx 的增長百分比會較低，但 IA 的增長空間，OpEx 增長更高。因此，槓桿作用——就像我們在 IA 領域的增長一樣，但我們會看到——我們應該在測試業務中看到一定程度的短期槓桿作用。

When you cascade that out to 2024, obviously, with the revenues that we're predicting in IA, I think Mark described it well. If we're growing at 50% and have a forecast to continue to grow, we'll continue to drive the investment. But as the growth starts to go down, let's say, below the rule of 40, then we'll start to drop more to the bottom line. That's how we're thinking about it.

當你將其推到 2024 年時，顯然，根據我們在 IA 中預測的收入，我認為馬克描述得很好。如果我們以 50% 的速度增長並預測會繼續增長，我們將繼續推動投資。但隨著增長開始下降，比方說，低於 40 的規則，然後我們將開始下降更多的底線。我們就是這麼想的。

But when I look at that '24 model, right, you're forecasting overall sales to grow at a 6% CAGR from the 2020 level. So that is below the 16% CAGR you have been at. And you're saying operating margins are going to stay pretty much flattish versus -- I'm just puzzled as to if you're saying sales are not really going to grow as much as they have grown in the last 3, 4 years and operating margins are not going to expand from here, is that model very conservative? Or what needs to be done to either grow faster or drive more operating leverage?

但是當我看那個 24 模型時，你預測整體銷售額將從 2020 年的水平以 6% 的複合年增長率增長。所以這低於你一直達到的 16% 的複合年增長率。你說的是營業利潤率將保持平穩——我只是很困惑，如果你說銷售額的增長不會像過去 3、4 年和營業利潤率不會從這裡擴大，該模型是否非常保守？或者需要做些什麼才能更快地增長或推動更多的運營槓桿？

Yes. I think that -- well -- and that's why in my prepared remarks, I comment, we looked at the model, not just off of a point of 2020, but off of an average of '19 and '20, just given the significant balloon in 2020 tied to the mobility space and then the contraction in IA. And when you look at it from an average of '19 and '20, we believe in that growth -- overall growth of the 4% to 8%. And then we are, during that period, going to be growing out the investments in the IA portfolio.

是的。我認為——好吧——這就是為什麼在我準備好的發言中，我評論說，我們研究了這個模型，不僅僅是從 2020 年的某個點開始，而是從 19 年和 20 年的平均水平開始，只是考慮到重要的2020 年的氣球與移動空間相關，然後是 IA 的收縮。當你從 19 年和 20 年的平均水平來看時，我們相信這種增長——4% 到 8% 的整體增長。然後，在此期間，我們將增加對 IA 投資組合的投資。

And I would just say, if you go back to what we said, if you look at that pie chart of the mix. When we get out to 2024, IA should be a bigger mix of our revenue than test. So test will continue to grow. It will have a very high drop-through. It will be very efficient. And if that's all you're looking at, yes, bottom line profitability should increase.

我只想說，如果你回到我們所說的，如果你看一下混合的餅圖。到 2024 年，IA 應該是我們收入的一個比測試更大的組合。因此測試將繼續增長。它將具有非常高的下降率。這將是非常有效的。如果這就是您所關注的，是的，底線盈利能力應該會增加。

But on the IA side, it's more likely that we'll be growing more rapidly, and we'll be pulling up gross margins for the enterprise with the IA business. But on the bottom line, we're being a bit conservative on how much we plan to drop-through there because we want to keep investing for more and more growth. So it kind of just depends on what's the investment profile in IA. And we've modeled in -- we're not going to optimize for profit in the midterm there, we're optimizing for growth.

但在 IA 方面，我們更有可能增長得更快，我們將通過 IA 業務拉高企業的毛利率。但最重要的是，我們對計劃在那裡下降多少有點保守，因為我們希望繼續投資以實現越來越多的增長。所以這在某種程度上取決於 IA 的投資概況。我們已經建立了模型——我們不會在中期優化利潤，我們正在優化增長。

Understand. And Mark, just a follow-up to that. You mentioned the prospects for some additional M&A. I presume it's in the IA side of the business, but I was hoping you would talk to that. Do you -- are you contemplating kind of smaller tuck-in technology type transactions? Are you thinking about something that could be bigger and could require the use of stock, just how we should think about what M&A pipeline is and how it could impact this baseline model that you have set for us?

理解。馬克，只是對此的後續行動。您提到了一些額外併購的前景。我想這是在業務的 IA 方面，但我希望你能談談。你 - 你是否正在考慮一種更小的折入技術類型的交易？您是否正在考慮可能更大並且可能需要使用股票的事情，我們應該如何考慮併購渠道是什麼以及它如何影響您為我們設定的基準模型？

Yes. So most of what we have in our pipeline is consistent with the kind of things we've been investing in and acquiring in the past 5 to 6 years, Industrial Automation, modestly sized investments, let's say, relative to our market cap. However, we have expanded our aperture a bit to look in the test space and areas that are correlated to test, which bring with it potentially some larger M&A things. It's always governed by the same rich internal rate of return metrics that we always use on these things.

是的。因此，我們管道中的大部分內容與我們在過去 5 到 6 年中一直投資和收購的東西一致，工業自動化，相對於我們的市值而言，規模適中的投資。但是，我們稍微擴大了視野，以查看與測試相關的測試空間和區域，這可能會帶來一些更大的併購事件。它總是受我們在這些事情上經常使用的同樣豐富的內部回報率指標的約束。

So whatever we do is going to be something that's more attractive to the -- our investors than buying back our stock or those kind of -- our internal weighted cost of capital. So that's about all I think I can say about that.

因此，無論我們做什麼，都將成為對我們的投資者更有吸引力的事情，而不是回購我們的股票或類似的東西——我們的內部加權資本成本。這就是我想我能說的。

Next question comes from Timothy Arcuri with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Timothy Arcuri。

I had a couple. So for OpEx this year, you're saying it's going to grow about 8% to 10%. So at the midpoint, you're going to grow OpEx about $76 million. I'm wondering, Sanjay, if you can tell us how much of that's going to come in IA? And I guess another way of asking that is sort of what sort of op margin do you think you can do this year in IA? I mean you were basically breakeven last year. Can you get to high single digits this year? And is 10% to 15% still the long-term target for that business? I know that Mark's commenting that if growth slows, you can sort of crank back on OpEx and you can drop more. But just wondering if you can comment there. And then I had a follow-up.

我有一對。所以對於今年的 OpEx，你說它會增長 8% 到 10%。因此，在中點，您將增加約 7600 萬美元的運營支出。我想知道，Sanjay，您是否可以告訴我們其中有多少會出現在 IA 中？我想另一種問這個問題的方式是，您認為今年您可以在 IA 中獲得什麼樣的運營利潤率？我的意思是你去年基本上是收支平衡的。你今年能拿到高個位數嗎？ 10% 到 15% 仍然是該業務的長期目標嗎？我知道 Mark 評論說如果增長放緩，你可以在 OpEx 上重新啟動，你可以降低更多。但只是想知道您是否可以在那裡發表評論。然後我進行了跟進。

Sure. Yes. I think it's spot on. I think when you take out the travel and the trade shows, the majority of the spend will come in OpEx from -- on a year-over-year basis. And from a profit perspective, we're assuming growth, and we expect to improve back to our original growth plans. Like if you think about 2020 as the anomaly and you look at the jump-off point of 2019, we were about a 10% profit level. With our growth, we should be in that similar level going forward in 2021.

當然。是的。我認為這是正確的。我認為當你拿出旅行和貿易展覽時，大部分支出將來自 - 與去年同期相比的 OpEx。從利潤的角度來看，我們假設增長，我們預計會恢復到我們最初的增長計劃。就像如果您將 2020 年視為異常情況，然後看看 2019 年的起點，我們的利潤水平約為 10%。隨著我們的增長，我們應該在 2021 年達到類似的水平。

Okay. Got it. So you think you can get to 10% op margin this year?

好的。知道了。所以你認為你今年可以達到 10% 的營業利潤率嗎？

Yes, plus or minus, but yes.

是的，加號或減號，但是是的。

Okay. Okay. Great. And then, I guess, a question for you, Mark. So when you were going to your top customer, you presented a couple of scenarios. I know it's very tough to predict. But the scenarios you presented didn't include that revenue from that customer is down. I get that the compute piece is going to be up, but they're also not going to shrink this year. And in the past, that's been sort of a harbinger of a potential decline in the number of testers they buy unless they're willing to live with a much larger die size, which may or may not be the case. So I'm just kind of wondering -- I'm not asking for any specifics on that customer. I'm just sort of wondering if you can look back in the past and draw in your past experience and say, well, yes, in the past, when that happens, that is sort of a harbinger of the potential that it could be down because you didn't present that as a down or as a possible outcome this year?

好的。好的。偉大的。然後，我想，有一個問題要問你，馬克。所以當你去見你的頂級客戶時，你展示了幾個場景。我知道這很難預測。但是您提供的場景不包括來自該客戶的收入下降。我知道計算部分將會增加，但今年它們也不會縮小。在過去，這在某種程度上預示著他們購買的測試儀數量可能會下降，除非他們願意接受更大的芯片尺寸，這可能是也可能不是這種情況。所以我只是有點想知道——我並不是要詢問有關該客戶的任何細節。我只是想知道你是否可以回顧過去，借鑒你過去的經驗，然後說，好吧，是的，過去，當這種情況發生時，這是一種可能下降的預兆因為你沒有將其作為今年的失敗或可能的結果呈現？

Yes. I think it's a possible outcome, but let me go back to what I was outlining in my remarks. When you look at the phone, there's various elements of the phone in terms of technology, dapps processors, the modem, the cameras, the memory, those areas of the phone refresh and take leaps of complexity in different cadences. And in 2020, the apps processor and 5G -- basically, the apps processor had a big jump in complexity, and 5G proliferated throughout all the phones.

是的。我認為這是一個可能的結果，但讓我回到我在發言中概述的內容。當你看手機時，手機在技術方面有各種元素，dapps 處理器、調製解調器、相機、內存，手機的這些區域以不同的節奏刷新並實現複雜性的飛躍。而在 2020 年，應用處理器和 5G——基本上，應用處理器的複雜性有了很大的飛躍，5G 在所有手機中激增。

So as you look at 2021, the need for incremental 5G capacity, whereas in 2020, several, let's say, 100 million units worth of phones needed 5G capacity. This year, it will be less because the incremental unit growth there is one factor in incremental 5G capacity plus complexity growth of the 5G modem itself. So 5G is big in 2020, not as big in 2021.

因此，當您展望 2021 年時，需要增加 5G 容量，而在 2020 年，有幾部（比方說）價值 1 億部的手機需要 5G 容量。今年，它會更少，因為增量單位增長有一個因素是增量 5G 容量加上 5G 調製解調器本身的複雜性增長。所以 5G 在 2020 年很重要，但在 2021 年就沒有那麼大了。

That leaves what's happening with the cameras, what's happening with power management, what's happening with the screen resolution. Other things could be balloons that pull it back up. But I do think you do have that -- 5G has happened for that one area of our mobility customer base.

剩下的就是相機發生了什麼，電源管理髮生了什麼，屏幕分辨率發生了什麼。其他東西可能是將它拉回來的氣球。但我確實認為你確實擁有 - 5G 已經發生在我們移動客戶群的一個領域。

And operator, we have time for just one more question, please.

接線員，我們還有時間再問一個問題。

Last question comes from John Pitzer with Crédit Suisse.

最後一個問題來自 Crédit Suisse 的 John Pitzer。

Mark, my first question is just on the whole China dynamic. You're clearly guiding it to be down this year. I'm kind of curious if there is a date on between U.S.-China relations, is that a zero-sum game, an exercise in market shift? Or do you think it would be accretive? And I guess more importantly, we're now seeing the U.S. government kind of incentivize domestic production of semis. I'm just kind of curious as to whether or not you could benefit from that, either indirectly as some of your customers build capacity domestically, or directly as we think about your long-term tax rate? And then I've got a quick follow-up.

馬克，我的第一個問題是關於整個中國的動態。你明確地指導它今年下降。我有點好奇美中關係是否有日期，那是零和遊戲，是市場轉移的練習嗎？或者你認為它會增值嗎？而且我想更重要的是，我們現在看到美國政府在某種程度上鼓勵國內生產半成品。我只是有點好奇你是否可以從中受益，無論是間接地因為你的一些客戶在國內建設產能，還是直接因為我們考慮你的長期稅率？然後我有一個快速的跟進。

Okay. So China. If for some reason, the restrictions on China ease and more indigenous Chinese makers start to grow again, I think it's neutral. As business shifted out of China in 2020, it was pretty much neutral to us. There was -- the customers that picked up the manufacturing of, let's say, applications processors or modems that would have been done by indigenous Chinese suppliers or Teradyne customers and Advantest customers and a proportion that isn't that different than it was in China. So as it ebbs and flows back and forth, I wouldn't say there's a big ramification.

好的。所以中國。如果出於某種原因，對中國的限制放鬆，更多中國本土製造商開始重新增長，我認為這是中性的。隨著業務在 2020 年轉移出中國，這對我們來說幾乎是中性的。有一些客戶選擇了應用處理器或調製解調器的製造，而這些應用程序處理器或調製解調器本來是由中國本土供應商或 Teradyne 客戶和 Advantest 客戶完成的，並且所佔比例與中國沒有什麼不同。因此，當它來回潮起潮落時，我不會說有很大的影響。

On the U.S. domestic supply question, I think it's going to take a long time and many, many years of a steadfast set of incentives from the government for that to mature to something significant to our business.

關於美國國內供應問題，我認為政府需要很長時間和很多年的一系列堅定的激勵措施才能成熟到對我們的業務具有重要意義。

If we stick at that in the U.S. for 7, 8 years and really build up an infrastructure to manufacture semiconductors domestically, I think it could have a bit of a positive impact, but I think it's small. I don't think because semiconductors might be manufactured in the U.S., all of a sudden, there's a propensity that they're going to buy more Teradyne equipment. It's at the margin, but nothing I would bake in as a trend line to count on.

如果我們在美國堅持 7、8 年並真正建立起在國內製造半導體的基礎設施，我認為它可能會產生一些積極影響，但我認為它很小。我不認為因為半導體可能是在美國製造的，所以突然之間，他們有購買更多 Teradyne 設備的傾向。它處於邊緣，但我不會將其作為可以指望的趨勢線。

That's helpful. And then just as my follow-up, going back to the 2024 model. Your explanation as to kind of how you're getting to the op profit targets you're getting to makes a ton of sense.

這很有幫助。然後就像我的後續行動一樣，回到 2024 模型。您關於如何實現運營利潤目標的解釋很有道理。

I'm just kind of curious, to the extent that the top line proves to be conservative, how should we think about incremental operating margins above sort of the high end of the target model? Or maybe another way of thinking about it, as IA gets scale, where do we think the longer-term op margin of the business can go?

我只是有點好奇，就頂線被證明是保守的而言，我們應該如何考慮高於目標模型高端的增量營業利潤率？或者換一種思考方式，隨著 IA 規模的擴大，我們認為業務的長期運營利潤率會走向何方？

Yes. I think that if the test business -- if what drives the incremental revenue, if the test businesses come to fruition, I think you'll see a higher drop-through. If and again, just to repeat myself, if we're growing and we see continued growth, and we're going to continue to invest in IA, that drop-through may be lower. But let's say, it comes -- let's say, the revenues grow significantly over the first couple of years. And then at the end, they start to -- the growth starts to tail down, you may see a little bit more leverage. But it's really -- we have to see how the market unfolds in IA. But over the short term, we are planning a significant investment.

是的。我認為，如果測試業務——如果是什麼推動了增量收入，如果測試業務取得成果，我認為你會看到更高的下降率。如果一次又一次，只是重複一遍，如果我們正在增長並且我們看到持續增長，並且我們將繼續投資於 IA，那麼下降可能會更低。但是，可以說，它來了——比如說，收入在頭幾年顯著增長。然後在最後，他們開始——增長開始放緩，你可能會看到更多的槓桿作用。但它真的——我們必須看看市場在 IA 中的發展情況。但在短期內，我們計劃進行重大投資。

All right, folks. That wraps us up for today. Look forward to talking to you in the days ahead. And those that are still in the queue, I'll get back to you straight away. Thanks so much.

好的，伙計們。今天就到此結束。期待在未來的日子裡與您交談。那些還在排隊的人，我會馬上回复你。非常感謝。

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。