泰瑞達 (TER) 2020 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Third Quarter 2020 Teradyne Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

女士們、先生們，感謝大家的支持，歡迎參加泰瑞達 2020 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Andy Blanchard, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我想將會議交給今天的發言人，投資者關係副總裁安迪布蘭查德 (Andy Blanchard)。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, Josh. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our discussion of Teradyne's most recent financial results. I'm joined this morning by our CEO, Mark Jagiela; and our CFO, Sanjay Mehta.

謝謝你，喬許。大家早安，歡迎來到我們對泰瑞達最新財務表現的討論。今天早上我們的執行長 Mark Jagiela 也加入了我的行列。以及我們的財務長桑傑梅塔 (Sanjay Mehta)。

Following our opening remarks, we'll provide details of our performance for 2020's third quarter, along with our outlook for the fourth quarter of 2020. The press release containing our third quarter results was issued last evening. We are providing slides on the Investor page of the website that may be helpful to you in following the discussion. Replays of this call will be available via the same page after the call ends.

在我們的開場白之後，我們將提供 2020 年第三季度業績的詳細信息，以及我們對 2020 年第四季度的展望。我們在網站的投資者頁面上提供幻燈片，可能對您後續討論有所幫助。通話結束後，可以透過同一頁面重播此通話。

The matters that we discuss today will include forward-looking statements that may involve risk factors that could cause Teradyne's results to differ materially from management's current expectations. We encourage you to review the safe harbor statement contained in the earnings release as well as our most recent SEC filings. Additionally, those forward-looking statements are made as of today, and we take no obligation to update them as a result of developments occurring after this call.

我們今天討論的事項將包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述可能涉及可能導致泰瑞達的業績與管理層當前預期存在重大差異的風險因素。我們鼓勵您查看收益報告中包含的安全港聲明以及我們最近向 SEC 提交的文件。此外，這些前瞻性陳述是截至今天作出的，我們沒有義務因本次電話會議後發生的事態發展而更新這些陳述。

During today's call, we will make reference to non-GAAP financial measures. We have posted additional information concerning these non-GAAP financial measures, including the reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure, where available, on the investor page of our website.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將參考非公認會計準則財務指標。我們已在我們網站的投資者頁面上發布了有關這些非 GAAP 財務指標的更多信息，包括與最直接可比的 GAAP 財務指標（如有）的調整。

Also, please take special note of the safe harbor statement in the press release and slide deck for risks related to the COVID-19 pandemic and changes to the U.S. export regulations. Looking ahead, between now and our next earnings call, Teradyne expects to participate in technology or industrial-focused investor conferences hosted by Baird, Wolfe Research, Crédit Suisse and UBS.

另外，請特別注意新聞稿和幻燈片中的安全港聲明，以了解與 COVID-19 大流行相關的風險以及美國出口法規的變化。展望未來，從現在到我們的下一次財報電話會議，泰瑞達預計將參加由 Baird、Wolfe Research、瑞士信貸和瑞銀主辦的以技術或工業為重點的投資者會議。

Now let's get on with the rest of the agenda. First, Mark will comment on our recent results, current market conditions, trade regulations and our future outlook. Sanjay will then offer more details on our quarterly results along with our guidance for the fourth quarter. We will then answer your questions, and this call is scheduled for 1 hour. Mark?

現在讓我們繼續議程的其餘部分。首先，馬克將評論我們最近的業績、當前的市場狀況、貿易法規和我們的未來展望。然後，桑傑將提供有關我們季度業績的更多詳細資訊以及我們對第四季度的指導。然後我們將回答您的問題，本次通話預計持續 1 小時。標記？

Thanks, Andy. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. My prepared remarks today will cover 3 topics: first, the highlights of our third quarter and first 9 months of the year; second, the impacts of the latest trade regulations on Teradyne; and third, I'll share with you how we're thinking about the test and automation markets as we close out 2020 and look into the next year and beyond.

謝謝，安迪。大家早安，感謝您加入我們。我今天準備的發言將涵蓋三個主題：第一，我們第三季和今年前九個月的亮點；二是最新貿易法規對泰瑞達的影響；第三，我將與您分享在 2020 年即將結束並展望明年及以後時我們如何看待測試和自動化市場。

Our third quarter results were above guidance and reflect the continued strength of our test businesses. Additionally, our Industrial Automation businesses grew 17% from the Q2 trough, and we are now operating at 2019 quarterly levels as manufacturing activities in Europe and North America improve.

我們第三季的業績高於預期，反映了我們測試業務的持續實力。此外，我們的工業自動化業務較第二季低谷成長了 17%，隨著歐洲和北美製造活動的改善，我們目前的營運水準處於 2019 年季度水準。

At the company level, sales in Q3 were 41% above Q3 '19, and non-GAAP EPS grew 53% from the year ago level. Throughout 2020, and we have seen increased short-term upside demand across our Semi Test end markets. The impact of this is clear in both our above guidance results in Q3 and in our Q4 guidance, which at the midpoint is substantially higher than we forecast in July.

在公司層面，第三季銷售額比 19 年第三季成長 41%，非 GAAP 每股盈餘較去年同期成長 53%。在整個 2020 年，我們看到半測試終端市場的短期上行需求增加。這一影響在我們上述第三季的指導結果和第四季度的指導結果中都很明顯，其中數值遠高於我們 7 月的預測。

Throughout 2020, the semiconductor ecosystem has seen somewhat cautious initial forecast, which were replaced with better-than-expected actual demand and test has been no exception. We continue to run a manufacturing pipeline that allows us to respond to this upside. Stepping back and looking at our performance through the first 9 months of the year, the results show the success of our new products and related designing efforts and the resilience of our employees, supply line partners and operating model.

在整個2020年，半導體生態系的初步預測有些謹慎，取而代之的是好於預期的實際需求和測試也不例外。我們繼續經營一條製造管道，使我們能夠應對這一優勢。回顧我們今年前 9 個月的表現，結果顯示了我們的新產品和相關設計工作的成功以及我們的員工、供應線合作夥伴和營運模式的彈性。

Teradyne sales through 9 months are up 44%, and our non-GAAP earnings per share are up 79%. Our test businesses collectively grew 52% year-to-date, while Industrial Automation revenue on an as-reported basis contracted 10%, reflecting the pandemic impact. In Semi Test, we estimate the SOC market will be about $3.3 billion, roughly flat with 2019's level as automotive, industrial and linear markets remain depressed. However, our SOC test business is up 53% year-to-date due to strong investments in mobility test and the shipment of our new UltraFLEXplus platform, which is ramping significant design wins.

泰瑞達 9 個月的銷售額成長了 44%，我們的非 GAAP 每股盈餘成長了 79%。今年迄今為止，我們的測試業務整體成長了 52%，而按報告計算的工業自動化收入則收縮了 10%，反映了疫情的影響。在 Semi Test 中，我們預計 SOC 市場規模約為 33 億美元，與 2019 年的水準大致持平，因為汽車、工業和線性市場仍然低迷。然而，由於對行動性測試的大力投資以及我們新的 UltraFLEXplus 平台的出貨，我們的 SOC 測試業務今年迄今成長了 53%，該平台正在提升重大設計成果。

The principal driver of mobility test demand continues to be increases in complexity of cell phone silicon. This is especially notable in 2020 when smartphone unit shipments are expected to decline about 10% to 1.2 billion, yet the collective test intensity of each unit continues to grow at a rate in excess of this unit decline. Within smartphones, the mid-to-high tier is the place to be in test, and that's where Teradyne is solidly positioned. These phones are seeing disproportionate growth and complexity related to multiple high-density camera arrays, and the associated processing power and storage to manage this data.

行動測試需求的主要驅動力仍然是手機晶片複雜性的增加。這在 2020 年尤其值得注意，當時智慧型手機出貨量預計將下降約 10% 至 12 億部，但每台設備的集體測試強度繼續以超過該單位降幅的速度增長。在智慧型手機中，中高階是需要測試的地方，而這正是泰瑞達穩固的定位。這些手機正在經歷與多個高密度相機陣列以及管理這些數據的相關處理能力和儲存相關的不成比例的成長和複雜性。

Another complexity driver is 5G, and these high-tier phones are early adopters of the extra silicon needed to enable these features. Less than 250 million phones are expected to be 5G-enabled in 2020, and only a fraction of those will support millimeter wave communication. So despite the bump in 2020, we are still in the very early stages of 5G adoption.

另一個複雜性驅動因素是 5G，這些高階手機是實現這些功能所需的額外晶片的早期採用者。預計到 2020 年，支援 5G 的手機將少於 2.5 億部，其中只有一小部分支援毫米波通訊。因此，儘管 2020 年出現了一些困難，但我們仍處於 5G 採用的早期階段。

Memory test is another bright spot. The market is likely to be up about 50% from $600 million in 2019 to about $900 million in 2020. The shipment ramp of our Magnum EPIC product LPDDR5 win last year, combined with continued strength in flash demand, has driven our year-to-date memory revenues up 70% from 2019.

記憶體測試是另一個亮點。該市場可能會從2019 年的6 億美元成長約50% 至2020 年的約9 億美元。成長。

In System Test, revenues are up nearly 50% through 9 months on growth in Storage Test and defense-related investments. Recall Storage Test serves HDD and system-level test markets, and we expect sales to more than double in 2020 to over $200 million. And at LitePoint, sales are up 18% year-to-date due to increasing adoption of advanced connectivity standards like WiFi 6E and our growing share in 5G production test.

在系統測試方面，由於儲存測試和國防相關投資的成長，9 個月內收入成長了近 50%。 Recall Storage Test 服務於 HDD 和系統級測試市場，我們預計 2020 年銷售額將增加一倍以上，達到 2 億美元以上。在 LitePoint，由於越來越多地採用 WiFi 6E 等先進連接標準以及我們在 5G 生產測試中的份額不斷增加，今年迄今為止的銷售額增長了 18%。

As noted earlier, in Industrial Automation, we saw a significant uptick in demand in Q3 with growth of 17% off the second quarter trough. UR grew 23% as demand in Europe, North America and China showed steady gains. AutoGuide continues to win new accounts, and we expect over 50% growth in 2020 on a pro forma basis.

如前所述，在工業自動化領域，我們看到第三季的需求顯著上升，較第二季的低潮成長了 17%。由於歐洲、北美和中國的需求穩定成長，UR 成長了 23%。 AutoGuide 持續贏得新客戶，我們預計 2020 年預計成長率將超過 50%。

Regarding trade, as we noted last quarter, the China military end-user restrictions require increased compliance work and costs. But we do not expect any material impact on our sales into China. In the case of Huawei restrictions, the fleet of testers previously installed at OSATs to support their device test are already being reabsorbed into the market to test the alternative sources of silicon supply that's growing to fill in the gap created by these regulations at Huawei.

關於貿易，正如我們上季所指出的，中國軍事最終用戶的限制需要增加合規工作和成本。但我們預計不會對我們在中國的銷售產生任何重大影響。在華為受到限制的情況下，先前在OSAT 上安裝的用於支援設備測試的測試機群已經被重新吸收到市場中，以測試替代的矽供應來源，這些供應來源正在不斷增長，以填補華為這些法規造成的空白。

For example, in the third quarter, we have seen an increase in upgrade orders at these OSATs customers to reconfigure installed testers to meet the unique needs of new customers. This upgraded and repurposing continues in fourth quarter.

例如，在第三季度，我們看到這些 OSAT 客戶的升級訂單增加，以重新配置已安裝的測試儀，以滿足新客戶的獨特需求。這種升級和重新利用將在第四季度繼續進行。

Shifting to the future. It's difficult to make the call on how 2021 will shape up as it's been difficult to predict 2020 even on a quarterly basis. Customers will likely continue to forecast conservatively and respond close into demand. However, semiconductor complexity growth has proven itself resilient to COVID, and is the fundamental driver of our test business. With that in mind, I'll comment on a few of the key indicators that we are watching.

轉向未來。很難預測 2021 年將如何發展，因為即使按季度預測 2020 年也很困難。客戶可能會繼續保守預測並根據需求做出反應。然而，半導體複雜性的成長已證明其對新冠疫情具有彈性，並且是我們測試業務的根本驅動力。考慮到這一點，我將評論我們正在關注的一些關鍵指標。

In SOC test, we will be watching the smartphone market for complexity increases to support higher performance video and still photography, the adoption rate of 5G in millimeter wave, AI integration and handset unit growth. We'll also be watching the automotive and analog markets for signs of a sustainable recovery in test demand. Longer term, the increase in edge AI devices should drive billions of additional complex chip units into the market by 2025 so early design wins in that area are key.

在 SOC 測試中，我們將關注智慧型手機市場的複雜性增加，以支援更高效能的視訊和靜態攝影、毫米波 5G 的採用率、人工智慧整合和手機銷售成長。我們還將關注汽車和模擬市場測試需求可持續復甦的跡象。從長遠來看，到 2025 年，邊緣人工智慧設備的增加將推動數十億個額外的複雜晶片單元進入市場，因此該領域的早期設計勝利是關鍵。

In memory, the transition to higher performance DDR5 standards is just underway and should accelerate in 2021, along with newer high-speed UFS and NVMe flash interfaces. The roadmaps for both flash and DRAM show continued growth in interface speeds, which is another driver of test intensity beyond the traditional bit growth, and should drive healthy memory test demand over the midterm.

在記憶體領域，向更高效能 DDR5 標準的過渡剛剛開始，並且應該會在 2021 年加速過渡，同時還會出現更新的高速 UFS 和 NVMe 快閃記憶體介面。快閃記憶體和 DRAM 的路線圖顯示介面速度持續成長，這是傳統位元成長之外測試強度的另一個驅動因素，並且應該在中期推動健康的記憶體測試需求。

At LitePoint, the continued growth of WiFi 6, 6E and ultra-wideband connectivity standards, along with 5G will be drivers for continued growth. A bit further out, we expect the next-generation WiFi 7 standard will require another refresh of the entire existing connectivity installed base of testers.

在 LitePoint，WiFi 6、6E 和超寬頻連線標準的持續成長以及 5G 將成為持續成長的驅動力。更進一步，我們預計下一代 WiFi 7 標準將需要對整個現有連接測試儀安裝基礎進行再次更新。

In System Test, Storage Test is the interesting wildcard. After [toward] growth in 2020, the underlying demand drivers remain in place. In HDD, both increasing complexity and 30%-plus annual exabyte growth and in system-level test, increasing device complexity and higher quality requirements are driving the additional test intensity. However, both our narrow markets and prone to swings in investment levels at individual customers.

在系統測試中，儲存測試是一個有趣的通配符。在 2020 年實現成長之後，潛在的需求驅動因素仍然存在。在 HDD 中，不斷增加的複雜性和每年超過 30% 的 EB 成長，以及在系統級測試中，不斷增加的設備複雜性和更高的品質要求正在推動額外的測試強度。然而，我們的市場狹窄，個人客戶的投資水準容易出現波動。

Our Industrial Automation businesses are well aligned to long-term economic and technical trends in manufacturing and material handling. So we are confident in their ability to return to high growth. The only question is how quickly the manufacturing economy returns to health. We continue to scale our distribution capability and invest in R&D to widen our leading position. Among other things, AutoGuide adoption by key logistics, e-commerce, retail and automotive customers in 2021 will set the stage for multiple years of double-digit growth.

我們的工業自動化業務與製造和物料搬運領域的長期經濟和技術趨勢保持一致。所以我們對他們恢復高成長的能力充滿信心。唯一的問題是製造業經濟恢復健康的速度有多快。我們繼續擴大我們的分銷能力並投資於研發，以擴大我們的領先地位。除此之外，到 2021 年，主要物流、電子商務、零售和汽車客戶對 AutoGuide 的採用將為未來多年的兩位數成長奠定基礎。

Despite these comments, as I've noted in the past, we do not spend too much time trying to predict the various short-term demand drivers as they generally don't affect our investment plans. We do spend a lot of time trying to predict the underlying long-term growth drivers. We want to be positioned with the right products at the right customers at the right time. We believe the use of semiconductors across the global economy will continue to expand and chip complexity will grow along with that expansion.

儘管有這些評論，正如我過去所指出的，我們並沒有花太多時間試圖預測各種短期需求驅動因素，因為它們通常不會影響我們的投資計劃。我們確實花了很多時間試圖預測潛在的長期成長動力。我們希望在正確的時間向正確的客戶提供正確的產品。我們相信，半導體在全球經濟中的使用將繼續擴大，晶片的複雜性也將隨著這種擴大而增加。

Similarly, in Industrial Automation, the cost performance of the sensor, software and mechanical building blocks of advanced automation continues to improve, making our products economically attractive to an expanding universe of customers. We have built our strategy on these fundamental beliefs, and built our operating model with the flexibility to deal efficiently with the inevitable ups and downs of economic cycles.

同樣，在工業自動化領域，先進自動化的感測器、軟體和機械構建塊的性價比不斷提高，使我們的產品在經濟上對不斷擴大的客戶群體具有吸引力。我們在這些基本信念的基礎上製定了我們的策略，並建立了能夠靈活有效地應對經濟週期不可避免的起伏的營運模式。

So while we can't predict what lies ahead in 2021, we finished 2020 on an optimistic note. The company -- across the company, our employees delivered remarkable results under very difficult circumstances. Our new test and IA products are seeing strong market acceptance, and our R&D pipelines are well-stocked with future products to drive future growth.

因此，雖然我們無法預測 2021 年的前景，但我們以樂觀的態度結束了 2020 年。在整個公司範圍內，我們的員工在非常困難的情況下取得了令人矚目的成績。我們的新測試和 IA 產品得到了廣泛的市場認可，我們的研發管道儲備充足，可滿足未來產品的需求，以推動未來的成長。

With that, I'll turn things over to Sanjay for the financial details.

這樣，我會將事情交給 Sanjay 了解財務細節。

Thank you, Mark, and hello, everyone. In my remarks, I'll review our Q3 financial results, comment on how COVID is impacting our business, provide Q4 guidance and comment on our full year financial outlook at the midpoint of our Q4 guidance.

謝謝你，馬克，大家好。在我的演講中，我將回顧我們第三季度的財務業績，評論新冠疫情對我們業務的影響，提供第四季度的指導，並在第四季度指導的中期評論我們的全年財務前景。

Our third quarter sales of $819 million were just above the high end of the guidance range, which enabled a 30% non-GAAP operating margin and $1.18 non-GAAP EPS, which is also above the high end of our range. Strength in Semi Test and Storage Test were the revenue highlights. Improved profit was a result of higher sales, partially offset by a higher-than-forecasted tax rate.

我們第三季的銷售額為8.19 億美元，略高於指引範圍的上限，從而實現了30% 的非GAAP 營業利潤和1.18 美元的非GAAP 每股收益，這也高於我們的指導範圍的上限。半測試和儲存測試的實力是收入亮點。利潤的提高是銷售額增加的結果，但部分被高於預期的稅率所抵銷。

Our non-GAAP operating expenses were $211 million, and our non-GAAP diluted share count in the quarter was 175 million. In Q3, our non-GAAP tax rate was 17.4%, which included a year-to-date catch-up as our estimated 2020 annual non-GAAP tax rate increased to 15.5% from our prior forecast of 14.5%. The increased tax rate is driven by higher foreign earnings, which resulted in an increase in the U.S. minimal tax on foreign earnings.

我們的非 GAAP 營運費用為 2.11 億美元，本季非 GAAP 稀釋後股票數量為 1.75 億股。第三季度，我們的非 GAAP 稅率為 17.4%，其中包括年初至今的追趕，因為我們預計 2020 年年度非 GAAP 稅率從先前預測的 14.5% 增加到 15.5%。稅率上調是由於海外收入增加所致，這導緻美國對海外收入的最低稅率提高。

We generated $280 million in free cash flow in Q3. We paid $17 million in dividends, had capital expenses of $63 million and ended the quarter with cash and marketable securities of approximately $1.3 billion and no short-term debt.

第三季我們產生了 2.8 億美元的自由現金流。我們支付了 1,700 萬美元的股息，資本支出為 6,300 萬美元，本季末現金和有價證券約為 13 億美元，沒有短期債務。

Inventory decreased to $191 million. DSO in the quarter decreased to 65 days. We had 1 10% customer in the quarter. At the business unit level, Semi Test sales were $592 million, up 49% from Q3 '19. SOC shipments were $449 million, and memory test had record shipments at $143 million. Semi Test saw strength in mobility and compute applications in SOC where we continue to ramp our UltraFLEXplus test system. In memory, we saw broad shipments across flash and our Magnum EPIC solution enabled continued strength in DRAM. We expect these products to continue to gain new applications as market acceptance has been very encouraging to date, and they're well aligned to technology trends in both SOC and memory test.

庫存減少至 1.91 億美元。本季的 DSO 減少至 65 天。本季我們有 1 10% 的客戶。在業務部門層面，Semi Test 銷售額為 5.92 億美元，比 19 年第三季成長 49%。 SOC 出貨量為 4.49 億美元，Memory Test 出貨量創歷史新高，達到 1.43 億美元。 Semi Test 在 SOC 的行動性和運算應用程式中看到了優勢，我們繼續提升 UltraFLEXplus 測試系統。在記憶體領域，我們看到快閃記憶體領域的廣泛出貨量，而我們的 Magnum EPIC 解決方案使 DRAM 領域持續保持強勁勢頭。我們預計這些產品將繼續獲得新的應用，因為迄今為止市場接受度非常令人鼓舞，而且它們與 SOC 和記憶體測試的技術趨勢非常一致。

As Mark noted, the automotive microcontroller and analog markets remained at historically low levels in 2020. But we did see some pickup in the analog markets in Q3 versus our expectations. Several analog companies have outperformed their expected results, and we are seeing some unexpected short lead time demand as a result.

正如 Mark 指出的那樣，汽車微控制器和模擬市場在 2020 年仍處於歷史低點。幾家模擬公司的業績超出了他們的預期，因此我們看到了一些意想不到的短交貨時間需求。

Shifting to System Test. Sales in the quarter were up 61% from Q3 '19 to $118 million, Storage Test was the star at $76 million as both HDD and system-level test delivered strong results. Defense and aerospace and production board test combined to deliver $43 million in the quarter. Rounding as the test portfolio, after a very strong second quarter, LitePoint sales softened to $41 million, down 4% from the Q3 '19 level.

轉向系統測試。該季度的銷售額比 19 年第三季度增長了 61%，達到 1.18 億美元，存儲測試是明星，銷售額為 7600 萬美元，因為 HDD 和系統級測試都取得了強勁的成果。國防和航空航天以及生產板測試在本季度總共交付了 4,300 萬美元。作為測試組合，在經歷了非常強勁的第二季度之後，LitePoint 銷售額疲軟至 4,100 萬美元，比 19 年第三季的水準下降了 4%。

Industrial Automation revenue was $69 million, flat from Q3 '19 and growth of 17% quarter-over-quarter. UR contributed $53 million, near $10 million and AG and Energid made up the remainder. While the COVID pandemic has negatively impacted our go-to-market efforts in Industrial Automation, we are seeing signs of improvement in several geographies across the globe and some seeing year-over-year increases in sales. These positive signs in different territories should be balanced by a continued uncertainty tied to COVID-19 in predicting the pace of the global recovery in IA over the short term.

工業自動化收入為 6,900 萬美元，與 19 年第三季持平，季增 17%。 UR 貢獻了 5300 萬美元，接近 1000 萬美元，AG 和 Energid 貢獻了剩餘部分。雖然新冠疫情大流行對我們在工業自動化領域的上市工作產生了負面影響，但我們看到全球多個地區出現了改善的跡象，有些地區的銷售額同比增長。在預測短期內全球經濟復甦步伐時，不同地區的這些正面跡象應該與 COVID-19 相關的持續不確定性相平衡。

Turning to the impact of COVID-19. At Teradyne, our priorities remain consistent during the coronavirus pandemic: safety of our employees, supporting our customers and a focus on execution to achieve our financial objectives. In line with my prior earnings call remarks, I want to acknowledge the continued challenges during the pandemic that our employees, customers, suppliers and their families are going through. Operationally, we continue to work through supply line issues in the quarter. And again, I must recognize the incredible work and scale of our operations team and our supplier partners to successfully overcome a wide variety of challenges to meet our customer requirements. Great execution also by our engineering teams in introducing new products and delivering products during the quarter, while overcoming significant supply chain issues along the way.

轉向 COVID-19 的影響。 在泰瑞達，在冠狀病毒大流行期間，我們的優先事項保持一致：員工的安全、支持客戶以及注重執行以實現我們的財務目標。根據我先前的財報電話會議發言，我想承認我們的員工、客戶、供應商及其家人在疫情期間持續面臨的挑戰。在營運方面，我們在本季持續解決供應鏈問題。再次，我必須認識到我們的營運團隊和供應商合作夥伴的出色工作和規模，成功克服了各種挑戰，滿足了我們的客戶需求。我們的工程團隊在本季推出新產品和交付產品方面也表現出色，同時克服了重大的供應鏈問題。

In late October, we're in a much better spot than 6 months ago. That said, there is still uncertainty of how this pandemic will impact global supply chains and market demand going forward. We still expect to encounter spot shortages and other issues through the remainder of the year and likely into 2021. Our guidance range continues to be wider than typical to reflect the potential impact of these uncertainties and some short lead time business noted earlier.

10 月下旬，我們的情況比 6 個月前好得多。儘管如此，此次疫情將如何影響全球供應鏈和市場需求仍存在不確定性。我們仍然預計在今年剩餘時間內，甚至可能到2021 年，都會遇到現貨短缺和其他問題。短的業務的潛在影響。

Our test portfolio continues to execute, grow shares and revenues. As a result, we are investing, along with our contract manufacturers, to increase capacity and resilience in our supply chain. Specific actions include building larger buffer stocks and some components, and increasing the geographic diversity of our supply and contract manufacturing. During the pandemic, we reduced our OpEx spending tied to travel, trade shows and other go-to-market activities. The savings were approximately $8 million to $10 million per quarter. Post the pandemic, when returning to normal, we expect these expenditures to come back to our P&L.

我們的測試組合繼續執行、增加份額和收入。因此，我們正在與合約製造商一起進行投資，以提高供應鏈的產能和彈性。具體行動包括建立更大的緩衝庫存和一些零件，以及增加我們供應和合約製造的地理多樣性。在大流行期間，我們減少了與旅行、貿易展覽和其他上市活動相關的營運支出。每季節省約 800 萬至 1,000 萬美元。疫情過後，當恢復正常時，我們預期這些支出將回到我們的損益表中。

Moving to the fourth quarter -- moving to the outlook for the fourth quarter. We expect revenue of $680 million to $740 million and on a non-GAAP -- and a non-GAAP EPS of $0.90 to $1.06 on 175 million diluted shares. This guidance excludes the amortization of acquired intangibles and noncash imputed interest on convertible debt. In prior guidance, I noted headwinds on gross margin in the second half of the year before returning to historical levels in 2021. I'm happy to report we're ahead of that plan, and gross margins are now expected to be 58% to 59% in Q4, up 56% in Q3. The earlier-than-expected improvement in margins is driven by increased volume, improved mix and supply chain execution in our new product ramps. In Q4, we expect operating expenses to be 29% to 31% of sales. The operating profit at the midpoint of our Q4 guidance is 29%.

轉向第四季－轉向第四季的前景。我們預計非 GAAP 營收為 6.8 億至 7.4 億美元，1.75 億股稀釋股票的非 GAAP 每股收益為 0.90 至 1.06 美元。本指引不包括所收購無形資產的攤銷和可轉換債務的非現金推定利息。在先前的指導中，我注意到毛利率在 2021 年恢復到歷史水平之前會在下半年遇到阻力。第四季成長59%，第三季成長56%。利潤率的改善早於預期，是由於我們新產品的產量增加、產品組合改善和供應鏈執行力的推動。第四季度，我們預計營運費用將佔銷售額的 29% 至 31%。我們第四季指引的中點營業利潤為 29%。

As Mark noted, you can see we've been positively surprised by both SOC and memory test demand since our last call. Continued strength in mobility test solutions for several customers was the primary driver, but we've also seen unforecasted demand with expedited lead times elsewhere in our test portfolio. For example, analog solutions utilizing our Eagle Test systems and DRAM memory applications for our Magnum EPIC systems have also driven up demand in Q4. We have seen this pattern play out over the last several months.

正如 Mark 指出的，您可以看到自上次通話以來我們對 SOC 和內存測試需求感到非常驚訝。幾個客戶的行動測試解決方案的持續優勢是主要驅動力，但我們在測試產品組合中的其他地方也看到了不可預見的需求和加快的交貨時間。例如，利用我們的 Eagle Test 系統的模擬解決方案和用於 Magnum EPIC 系統的 DRAM 記憶體應用程式也推動了第四季度的需求。在過去的幾個月裡，我們已經看到這種模式正在上演。

Looking at the full year from a financial perspective. Short-term slowdown in IA has been more than offset by the growth in our test businesses. At the midpoint of our Q4 guidance, our 2020 revenue should be above $3.1 billion and non-GAAP EPS will be approximately $4.50. Gross margin for the full year should be above 57%, down from 58% in 2019, reflecting the impact of high semiconductor shipments for mobility, along with the short-term impact of faster-than-expected ramps of new products.

從財務角度看全年。 IA 的短期放緩已被我們測試業務的成長所抵消。在我們第四季指引的中點，我們 2020 年的營收應超過 31 億美元，非 GAAP 每股盈餘約為 4.50 美元。全年毛利率應在 57% 以上，低於 2019 年的 58%，反映了半導體出貨量高對移動性的影響，以及新產品產量快於預期的短期影響。

Our 2020 non-GAAP operating profit rate will be in the high 20s, up from 25% in 2019, and our full year tax rate is expected to be 15.5%. Through 9 months, we spent $147 million on CapEx, and we expect we'll spend $193 million for the full year. At the start of the pandemic, it was unclear as to the depth and the duration of the economic consequences. As a result, we took actions to strengthen our liquidity and cash position. For example, we suspended share buybacks on April 1, and expect to end the year with approximately 175 million diluted shares. Given the share repurchases have historically been a part of our balanced capital allocation strategy, we'll update you in our January call on our capital return plan for 2021.

我們2020年的非公認會計原則營業利潤率將在20%左右，高於2019年的25%，全年稅率預計為15.5%。過去 9 個月，我們在資本支出上花費了 1.47 億美元，預計全年將花費 1.93 億美元。疫情爆發之初，經濟後果的深度和持續時間尚不清楚。因此，我們採取行動增強流動性和現金狀況。例如，我們於 4 月 1 日暫停股票回購，預計年底稀釋後股票數量約為 1.75 億股。鑑於股票回購歷來是我們平衡資本配置策略的一部分，我們將在 1 月的電話會議中向您通報 2021 年資本回報計畫的最新情況。

Looking ahead at 2021 from a modeling perspective. Macroeconomic conditions, timing of pandemic recovery and political environment all add uncertainty. The environment and demand uncertainty prevents us from speculating on 2021 market sizes. But at a high level, we expect gross margins to return to historical levels and OpEx to grow. From a longer-term model perspective, you can see that at the midpoint of our Q4 guidance will be inside the revenue range and above the EPS range of our 2022 earnings model. We'll provide you an update of the earnings model on our January call.

從建模角度展望 2021 年。宏觀經濟狀況、疫情復甦時機和政治環境都增加了不確定性。環境和需求的不確定性使我們無法猜測 2021 年的市場規模。但在較高水平上，我們預計毛利率將恢復到歷史水平，營運支出將成長。從長期模型的角度來看，您可以看到，我們第四季度指引的中點將位於我們 2022 年獲利模型的收入範圍內並高於每股收益範圍。我們將在一月份的電話會議上向您提供盈利模型的最新資訊。

To summarize, we closed out Q3 with outstanding financial and operational performance in a difficult working environment, and I again, thank our employees and partners for their incredible efforts. We entered Q4 with a forecast of higher-than-expected sales and earnings on the strength of mobility and memory.

總而言之，我們在困難的工作環境中以出色的財務和營運業績結束了第三季度，我再次感謝我們的員工和合作夥伴的巨大努力。進入第四季度，我們預計由於移動性和內存的優勢，銷售額和收益將高於預期。

For the full year, share gains in Semi Test and increased traction in our storage business enable us to exit the year stronger than when we entered. The Industrial Automation market is showing early signs of improvement, and we continue to invest in this segment as we monitor the market progress closely. While we're not immune to the macroeconomic shocks and our market visibility is limited, as you've seen since early July, overall, we feel good about our execution during 2020 in a challenging environment. It's too early to estimate demand in 2021, but we'll be prepared from a product, operations and balance sheet perspective for whatever comes our way.

就全年而言，Semi Test 的份額成長以及儲存業務牽引力的增加使我們能夠比進入時更加強勁地結束這一年。工業自動化市場正在顯示出改善的早期跡象，我們在密切關注市場進展的同時繼續投資該領域。儘管我們無法免受宏觀經濟衝擊，而且我們的市場能見度有限，正如您自 7 月初以來所看到的那樣，但總體而言，我們對 2020 年在充滿挑戰的環境中的執行情況感到滿意。現在估計 2021 年的需求還為時過早，但我們將從產品、營運和資產負債表的角度為發生的任何情況做好準備。

With that, I'll turn things back to Andy.

有了這個，我會把事情轉回給安迪。

Thanks, Sanjay. Josh, we'd now like to take some questions. (Operator Instructions).

謝謝，桑傑。喬什，我們現在想回答一些問題。 （操作員說明）。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question or comment comes from the line of Vivek Arya from Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題或評論來自美國銀行的 Vivek Arya。

Congratulations on the strong results and your execution. Mark, I'm curious, how much did 5G contribute to your results in calendar '20 versus what you thought at the start of the year? And the context here is that your large mobility customer now already has all their models with 5G, and I think the U.S. ones already feature millimeter wave.

恭喜您取得的優異成績和執行力。馬克，我很好奇，與您年初的想法相比，5G 對您 20 世紀日曆的結果有何貢獻？這裡的背景是，您的大型行動客戶現在已經擁有所有帶有 5G 的型號，我認為美國的型號已經配備了毫米波。

So does it mean that going forward, you are more dependent on unit growth rather than content growth, at least when it comes to mobility-related functions? So just what is the 5G TAM as you see it now and where are you in that journey?

那麼這是否意味著未來您將更加依賴單位成長而不是內容成長，至少在行動相關功能方面是如此？那麼，您現在所看到的 5G TAM 到底是什麼？

Yes. So just to refresh on the 5G TAM, we've been talking about a $400 million adder to the market, and we're roughly $250 million into that $400 million adder, and we expect that will peak out in the 2023, '24 time frame as the -- in that time frame, we would expect most -- greater than 50% of cellphones would have millimeter wave capability built-in, and that would run at that $400 million level for 3 or 4 years.

是的。因此，為了回顧5G TAM，我們一直在談論市場上一個4 億美元的增值項目，我們在這個4 億美元的增值項目中投入了大約2.5 億美元，我們預計這將在2023 年達到頂峰，即24 小時我們預計，在這個時間範圍內，超過 50% 的手機將內建毫米波功能，並且將以 4 億美元的水平運行 3 到 4 年。

So that's sort of the baseline. Where we are this year was -- just on the 5G content of cell phones, it's probably about $50 million higher than we expected this year. So certainly, more than we expected, but not dramatically more. So instead of the market being at what we might have thought a $200 million market, it's maybe closer to $250 million.

這就是基線。我們今年的情況是——僅就手機的 5G 內容而言，它可能比我們今年的預期高出約 5000 萬美元。所以當然，比我們預期的還要多，但也不會太高。因此，市場可能不是我們想像的 2 億美元市場，而是可能接近 2.5 億美元。

Now the other point you make about, without speaking to any specific customer situation, the market in terms of test equipment for 5G is facilitated to support about 300 million, maybe 250 million units of 5G capability. And so it's still a small fraction of what will happen over the next few years. So now Teradyne's concentration is a different matter. But I do think for the market that remains out there, the other 1.25 billion phones that are going to move to 5G over the next few years, you can assume that our market share in that space is roughly 50%. So we're pretty concentrated in what happened this year, but we have a very good position in what's happening over the next few.

現在你提到的另一點，在不談任何具體客戶情況的情況下，5G測試設備市場將有利於支援約3億，也許2.5億台5G能力。因此，這仍然只是未來幾年將發生的事情的一小部分。所以現在泰瑞達的專注力又是另一回事了。但我確實認為，對於仍然存在的市場，即未來幾年將轉向 5G 的其他 12.5 億支手機，你可以假設我們在該領域的市佔率約為 50%。因此，我們非常關註今年發生的事情，但我們對接下來幾年發生的事情有一個非常有利的位置。

And for my follow-up, I know you're not giving specific 2021 outlook. But I'm curious, after this very strong year that you had across the board in almost every division outside of IA, what of those markets do you think face a tougher comparison next year? That was there -- were there any one-offs, either from an end market or customer or product perspective that you think face tougher comparisons year-on-year as you look into next year, just trend-wise?

對於我的後續行動，我知道您沒有給出具體的 2021 年展望。但我很好奇，在經歷了這非常強勁的一年之後，除了 IA 之外的幾乎所有部門，您認為哪些市場明年將面臨更嚴峻的比較？就是這樣——無論是從終端市場、客戶還是產品的角度來看，您認為在展望明年時，就趨勢而言，是否會面臨更嚴格的同比比較？

Yes. It's probably -- it sounds like a copout, but no, I don't. All the markets that -- in test that showed growth this year have their own story. And the one thing I would maybe cite that I said in the script, that's a bit of a wildcard is the storage test piece, where we've had a phenomenal year, more than doubling of sales there. If -- again, if we listen to what customers are telling us, we think that still has room to run. But it's a thin market in terms of the customer base, and that one is a bit more of a wildcard than the others. But I don't see any other one-off issue with what we've seen in 2020 that would sort of say, "boy, that's going to be tough to beat next year."

是的。這可能——聽起來像是一種逃避，但不，我不這麼認為。所有在今年測試中顯示出成長的市場都有自己的故事。我可能會引用我在腳本中說過的一件事，這有點通配符是儲存測試部分，我們度過了驚人的一年，銷售額增加了一倍多。如果—再說一次，如果我們聽取客戶的意見，我們認為仍有發展的空間。但就客戶群而言，這是一個薄弱的市場，而且這個市場比其他市場更具不確定性。但我不認為 2020 年會出現任何其他一次性問題，例如“夥計，明年將很難被擊敗。”

Our next question or comment comes from the line of Brian Chin from Stifel.

我們的下一個問題或評論來自 Stifel 的 Brian Chin。

I guess, first, maybe for you, Mark. Just curious, again, does -- what you're seeing from a test utilization and/or market breadth standpoint, give you at least a degree of confidence that these stronger market conditions are likely to sustain into next year. And I realize that -- again, it's early to provide any official outlook on the test TAM. But can you at least give us a directional sense? Because in a vacuum, if smartphone unit demand grows stay 5% to 10% next year instead of contracting 10%, and 5G mix continues to shoot up, is there a reason to think that yours and the market TAM would not grow next year?

我想，首先，也許是為了你，馬克。再次，只是好奇——您從測試利用率和/或市場廣度的角度看到的情況，至少讓您有一定程度的信心，認為這些更強勁的市場狀況可能會持續到明年。我再次意識到，現在對測試 TAM 提供任何官方展望還為時過早。但你至少能給我們一個方向感嗎？因為在真空中，如果明年智慧型手機單位需求成長保持在 5% 到 10%，而不是收縮 10%，而 5G 組合繼續猛增，是否有理由認為您和市場 TAM 明年不會成長？

Yes. I think in that scenario that you cite, it would be hard to imagine the market TAM wouldn't grow. And so -- but there's so many variables. We've proven to ourselves and to you that we're not even that good at predicting the current quarter or the next one out. And so we're a little more gun-shy about speculation, I would say. But the issues that you cite around the suppressed unit demand for automotive, cellphones, both are significantly down in units this year and test is still jumping out of the gym.

是的。我認為在您提到的那種情況下，很難想像 TAM 市場不會成長。所以——但是變數太多了。我們已經向自己和你們證明，我們甚至不擅長預測當前季度或下一季的情況。所以我想說，我們對猜測更加謹慎。但你提到的汽車、手機單位需求受到抑制的問題，今年的單位需求都大幅下降，而且測試仍在進行中。

So a recovery next year in those 2 unit volume areas should bode well. But COVID is still out there, the economic situation of the world is unknown. So we're just -- we're not going to go too far out on a limb here and try to speculate.

因此，明年這兩個單位體積面積的復甦應該是個好兆頭。但新冠疫情依然存在，世界經濟情勢未知。所以我們只是——我們不會在這裡走得太遠並嘗試推測。

Okay. That's fair enough. And maybe second, deciding the recovery you're seeing in UR sales in 3Q, and it sounds like that's ongoing in the 4Q. I would assume maybe this is occurring absent any real sizable recovery in key markets such as auto. And maybe you can provide more color on the applications and markets that have begun to exhibit some improvement.

好的。這很公平。也許第二，決定你在第三季看到的 UR 銷售復甦，聽起來第四季正在持續。我認為，如果汽車等關鍵市場沒有真正大幅復甦，這種情況可能就會發生。也許您可以為已經開始表現出一些改進的應用程式和市場提供更多資訊。

Yes. It's Sanjay. So just, obviously, we've seen growth quarter-over-quarter and a little bit more color. In UR, we grew, in IA, 23%. And actually, it was one of the reasons why we exceeded our guidance this quarter. What we've seen as manufacturing kind of comes back online, we've seen the U.S., Europe and China, bode strength. And really, it's a function of both growth in the quarter. And a couple of those markets, we're actually seeing year-over-year growth. And so -- and then also from an AG perspective, that continues to grow.

是的。這是桑傑。因此，很明顯，我們看到了季度環比的成長，並且色彩更加豐富。在UR，我們在IA 成長了23%。事實上，這也是我們本季超出預期的原因之一。我們所看到的製造業已經恢復正常，我們看到美國、歐洲和中國預示著實力的增強。實際上，這是本季成長的函數。在其中一些市場中，我們實際上看到了同比增長。因此，從 AG 的角度來看，這一數字還在繼續增長。

Our next question or comment comes from the line of Toshiya Hari from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題或評論來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

Congrats on the strong quarter and guidance. Mark, I wanted to ask you on market share in both SOC test and memory test. You're clearly executing really well in both segments. On the SOC test side, I guess the question is, is the growth that you're seeing in market share this year, primarily due to your largest customer having a strong year? Or are you picking up share elsewhere within SOC test?

祝賀強勁的季度和指導。 Mark，我想問您在 SOC 測試和內存測試方面的市場份額。顯然，你們在這兩個領域都表現得非常好。在 SOC 測試方面，我想問題是，您今年看到的市場份額的成長是否主要是由於您最大的客戶今年表現強勁？或者您正在 SOC 測試中的其他地方獲得份額？

And then similarly, on the memory test side, again, a very big quarter in Q3. How should we think about sustainability into 2021? Are you seeing wins that would support continuity in the current trajectory? Or should we consider this to be more of a one-off? And then I've got a quick follow-up.

同樣，在記憶體測試方面，第三季也是一個非常大的季度。我們該如何思考 2021 年的永續發展？您是否看到了能夠支援當前軌跡連續性的勝利？或者我們應該認為這更像是一次性的？然後我會進行快速跟進。

Yes. It's a good question because the whole market share year-to-year is very volatile. So how do you make any sense out of it? Just to give you an example, Teradyne's market share last year in SOC was probably around 40%. This year, it's going to be somewhere in the mid-50s. So what's real? So here's how I would characterize it. Last year's 40% wasn't real. It was probably in terms of real market share closer to the mid-40s. We have -- and this year, it will probably be in, like I said, the mid-50s. But what we have done is pick up real noncustomer buying pattern share year-over-year due to design-ins we had last year. And that's to the tune of, let's say, 5 or 6 points of real market share.

是的。這是一個很好的問題，因為整個市場份額逐年波動很大。那麼你如何理解它的意義呢？舉個例子，Teradyne 去年在 SOC 的市佔率可能在 40% 左右。今年，這個數字將在 50 年代中期。那什麼是真實的呢？這就是我對它的描述。去年的 40% 並不真實。就實際市場佔有率而言，可能接近 40 年代中期。我們已經——今年，就像我說的，可能是 50 年代中期。但由於我們去年的設計，我們所做的是逐年獲得真正的非客戶購買模式份額。比方說，這相當於 5 或 6 個百分點的實際市場份額。

So off that base of 45 last year, this year, we're probably really normalized running in the low -- 50 to low 50s, is the market share position I'd say we're at today. And there's been a lot going on that influences that. Some buyers of equipment have exited the market like Huawei. That causes some systemic shift in share. And in Teradyne's case, we -- certainly was a huge customer of Teradyne's. But we were -- it was a bit below our average share point. And as that silicon supply redistributes, that helps us. The UltraFLEXplus has designed into some new segments that we've really not participated in for the past decade, that's real new share. It's also designed into some other segments that are new to us.

因此，以去年 45 的基數為基礎，今年我們可能真的在低位運行正常化——50 到 50 左右，這就是我今天所說的市場份額位置。有很多事情影響了這一點。一些設備買家已經退出市場，例如華為。這會導致份額發生一些系統性變化。就泰瑞達而言，我們當然是泰瑞達的大客戶。但我們的份額略低於我們的平均份額。隨著矽供應的重新分配，這對我們有幫助。 UltraFLEXplus 設計了一些我們在過去十年中沒有真正參與過的新細分市場，這是真正的新份額。它也被設計到其他一些對我們來說是新的領域。

So under the covers of what looks like, mathematically, a 40 to 55, let's say, point share gain in 2020, what's really, I would say, happen as we've gone from mid-40s to 50 to low 50s based on that. In memory, now memory is a market where we see the TAM growing significantly this year. It's gone up $300 million from $600 million to $900 million. About $200 million of that's in DRAM and about $100 million is in flash. And fortunately, we were successful in entering that DRAM segment last year with our new Magnum EPIC. And so we've been able to grow as that DRAM segment has grown this year.

因此，在數學上看起來 2020 年 40 到 55 的點份額增益的背後，我想說的是，當我們從 40 多歲中期到 50 多歲到 50 多歲以下時，真正發生的情況是基於此。在記憶體方面，現在記憶體是我們看到今年 TAM 顯著成長的市場。從 6 億美元增加到 9 億美元，增加了 3 億美元。其中約 2 億美元用於 DRAM，約 1 億美元用於快閃記憶體。幸運的是，我們去年憑藉新的 Magnum EPIC 成功進入了 DRAM 領域。因此，隨著今年 DRAM 細分市場的成長，我們也能夠實現成長。

And that brings us to, I'd say, our true market share and our reported market share are going to really be close in memory in the low 40s. And what we've said is that given our footprint now with our products and customer base, we legitimately see a way to get that to that 50% level over the next few years. So maybe that's a long-winded answer, but those are the 2 touch points I'd give you.

我想說的是，這使我們的真實市場份額和我們報告的市場份額將在記憶中真正接近 40 左右。我們所說的是，考慮到我們現在的產品和客戶群的足跡，我們合理地找到了在未來幾年內將其達到 50% 水平的方法。也許這是一個冗長的答案，但這是我要給你的兩個接觸點。

And as a quick follow-up, I wanted to ask on Industrial Automation profitability. I suppose over the past several years, you've been in investment mode in the business, growing your distribution network, investing in R&D. I think currently, you're around breakeven, given muted revenue levels. But how should we think about kind of through-cycle profitability in IA? And if you could remind us what your long-term margin target is for the IA business, that would be super helpful.

作為快速跟進，我想詢問工業自動化的盈利能力。我想在過去的幾年裡，您一直處於業務投資模式，發展分銷網絡，投資研發。我認為，鑑於收入水平低迷，目前您已接近收支平衡。但我們該如何考慮 IA 的整個週期獲利能力？如果您能提醒我們 IA 業務的長期利潤目標是多少，那將會非常有幫助。

Sure. It's Sanjay. So long question there, but maybe I'll give you a little bit of color. Recall in 2019, our IA business had an operating profit of about 10%. We entered the year in 2020, a big investment year, but we expect it to be around that same operating profit. COVID hit a lot of the go-to-market OpEx, we reduced, obviously, because it was run rated towards the higher revenue levels. And in the first half of the year, we lost money.

當然。這是桑傑。問題很長，但也許我會給你一點顏色。回想一下2019年，我們IA業務的營業利潤約為10%。我們進入了 2020 年，這是一個大投資年，但我們預計營業利潤將保持在相同水平。新冠疫情對上市營運支出造成了很大影響，我們顯然減少了營運支出，因為它的評級是朝著更高的收入水平進行的。今年上半年，我們虧損了。

In Q3, we were slightly profitable. And as we've said in -- or in Q4, we expect revenues to continue to increase and to grow that profit level. We haven't concluded on our 2021 plans, but my expectation, assuming that revenue continues, we're going to then obviously increase some of the go-to-market, obviously, with travel, trade shows, et cetera. But the engineering investment has not really wavered from that standpoint. And so we expect to continue to heavily invest in Industrial Automation. So over the next several years, you would expect that our profitability wouldn't be at kind of the company average because it's still in investment mode as we grow.

第三季度，我們略有獲利。正如我們在第四季度所說的那樣，我們預計收入將繼續增加並提高利潤水平。我們還沒有敲定 2021 年的計劃，但我的預期是，假設收入持續增長，我們將透過旅行、貿易展覽等方式明顯增加一些市場投放。但從這個角度來看，工程投資並沒有真正動搖。因此，我們預計將繼續大力投資工業自動化。因此，在接下來的幾年中，您可能會期望我們的獲利能力不會達到公司的平均水平，因為隨著我們的發展，它仍處於投資模式。

And then what we said over the horizon is that -- sorry, over the midterm, is that we expect the revenues to grow between 20% to 35%.

然後我們所說的是——抱歉，從中期來看，我們預計收入將成長 20% 到 35%。

Our next question or comment comes from the line of C.J. Muse from Evercore.

我們的下一個問題或評論來自 Evercore 的 C.J. Muse。

I guess, Mark, wanted to, I guess, go back in time and use your memory because I can't remember. But if you look back to AP and all of mobility, in the kind of '14, '15, '16, '17, '18 period, despite, I guess, some consternation around Apple fully buying new testers. You continue to see strength in that business as other players came in. So curious, as you look back in time around the 4G ramp and then look forward to 5G and what you're seeing in terms of silicon content on the RF side, in particular, millimeter wave as well as some of the processing capabilities required. How does that make you feel around what you think the trajectory of mobility tests could look like over the coming 1, 2, 3 years relative to the strength that you're seeing here in 2020?

我想，馬克，我想，我想，回到過去並利用你的記憶，因為我不記得了。但如果你回顧 AP 和所有移動性，在「14」、「15」、「16」、「17」、「18」時期，儘管我猜蘋果完全購買新測試儀引起了一些驚愕。隨著其他參與者的加入，您將繼續看到該業務的優勢。毫米波以及需要的一些處理能力。相對於您在 2020 年看到的實力，您對未來 1、2、3 年移動性測試的軌跡有何看法？

Yes. Good question. So just to put it a little bit in perspective. So the TAM or the test market for mobility, if you go back to, let's say, 2017, '16 time frame was roughly $1 billion of test equipment for mobility. This year, we estimate it will be close to $1.6 billion. And that's 1 data point. And that's in light of lower unit volumes. Another data point I'll give you is that if you look at a 4G phone and add up all the silicon in a typical 4G phone from a few years ago and say, "how much time does it take to test all that silicon?" And then you take, let's say, a high-end 5G phones today that are just coming on the market and ask the question, "how long is it to test all of that silicon?"

是的。好問題。所以只是稍微客觀地看待一下。因此，TAM 或行動測試市場，如果你回到 2017 年，16 年的時間框架大約是 10 億美元的行動測試設備。今年，我們估計將接近 16 億美元。這是 1 個數據點。這是考慮到單位體積較低。我將向您提供的另一個數據點是，如果您查看一款 4G 手機，並將幾年前典型 4G 手機中的所有晶片加起來，然後說：“測試所有這些晶片需要多少時間？”然後你拿一款今天剛上市的高端 5G 手機問一個問題：“測試所有這些晶片需要多長時間？”

And all I'm talking about now is the RF content and the apps processor. I'm not talking about the cameras and the power management and all that other stuff. It's up about 60% on a per unit phone basis, and we're just getting into 5G content phones.

我現在談論的是射頻內容和應用程式處理器。我不是說攝影機和電源管理以及所有其他東西。每支手機的價格上漲了約 60%，而且我們剛剛進入 5G 內容手機領域。

So you can see that there should be, as long as the units stay reasonable on cell phones and 5G keeps rolling out, a lot of tailwinds around continued growth of the mobility camp.

因此，您可以看到，只要手機銷售保持合理且 5G 不斷推出，行動陣營的持續成長就會帶來許多推動力。

That's very helpful. I guess as a follow-up question. You talked about mid-50s share here in 2020. On the last earnings call, you talked about a target of 60%. And I guess, can you kind of speak to what can bridge those 5 points, particularly around -- anything you can say around wins with UltraFLEXplus as well as the fact that auto and linear are probably down 35% this year versus last year. So I would think simply right there, that could bridge you to 60% in 2021.

這非常有幫助。我想作為後續問題。您談到了 2020 年 50 年代中期的份額。我想，你能談談什麼可以彌補這 5 點，特別是圍繞 UltraFLEXplus 的勝利以及今年自動和線性可能比去年下降 35% 的事實，你可以說的任何事情。所以我認為，到 2021 年，這一比例就可以達到 60%。

Yes. So just on the share, first of all, I'm not going to use, as I mentioned earlier, 55% is our normalized share right now. I'd say it's somewhere around 50, plus or minus. So how do we get 10 more points is probably the right way to think about it. And there's a clear path there in my mind. So 1 piece of it is, as you cited, when automotive and linear comes back, that's a place where we have higher-than-normal market share, and that will be a bit of an inflator to our share.

是的。因此，就份額而言，首先，我不會使用，正如我之前提到的，55% 是我們目前的標準化份額。我想說大約 50，上下左右。那麼如何才能多拿到10分，或許才是正確的思考方式。我心中有一條清晰的道路。因此，正如您所引用的，其中之一是，當汽車和線性回歸時，我們的市場份額高於正常水平，這對我們的份額將有一定的推動作用。

The UltraFLEXplus, though, is a key component of the strategy. We've already secured some segments that we've not participated in, in a long time. They're just beginning to ramp this year. So that platform designing into those segments alone should bring us halfway at least to that 60% or extra 10 points we need to get there. So if analog brings us a couple of points, and the UltraFLEXplus brings us maybe another 5, now we're talking -- we're up in that sort of 7-ish range.

不過，UltraFLEXplus 是該策略的關鍵組成部分。我們已經鎖定了一些我們很長時間沒有參與的部分。他們今年才剛開始成長。因此，僅針對這些細分市場進行平台設計就應該讓我們至少達到我們需要達到的目標的 60% 或額外 10 個點。因此，如果模擬為我們帶來了幾個點，而 UltraFLEXplus 可能為我們帶來了另外 5 個點，那麼現在我們正在討論 - 我們處於 7 點左右的範圍內。

And then the last piece that I alluded to in my script is there's this -- and this is another UltraFLEXplus story, I think. But edge AI devices are growing. Our position there is encouraging. And I see that, that segment as it establishes itself, if we can get that early design wins to kind of ramp with that growth of devices at the 60% share kind of level, that can pull us the rest of the way. By the way, we're talking -- maybe this is a 5-year, 6-year journey. It's not something that's around the corner.

然後我在劇本中提到的最後一段是這樣的——我認為這是另一個 UltraFLEXplus 的故事。但邊緣人工智慧設備正在成長。我們在那裡的地位令人鼓舞。我認為，隨著該細分市場的建立，如果我們能夠讓早期設計的勝利隨著設備份額的增長達到60% 的水平而有所提升，那麼我們就能在剩下的道路上走得更遠。順便說一下，我們正在談論——也許這是一個5年、6年的旅程。這不是指日可待的事。

Our next question or comment comes from the line of Mehdi Hosseini from SIG.

我們的下一個問題或評論來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

A couple of follow-ups regarding your Q3. So if upgrading some of the installed testers that last year were used for Huawei helped with the Semi services. How should I think about looking forward and its impact on the SOC tester? To what extent system upgrades of the past 6 months would have adverse impact on the new SOC test demand?

關於第三季的一些後續行動。因此，如果去年升級用於華為的一些已安裝測試儀有助於 Semi 服務。我應該如何考慮未來及其對 SOC 測試儀的影響？過去6個月的系統升級會對新的SOC測試需求產生多大的不利影響？

And as a second question or a follow-up, can you elaborate on the mix of HDD system? And to what extent the strength in advanced packaging like chiplets had the impact there? Any detailed color that would help us separate HDD from system-level test would be great.

作為第二個問題或後續問題，您能否詳細說明一下 HDD 系統的組合？小晶片等先進封裝的實力在多大程度上產生了影響？任何能夠幫助我們將硬碟與系統級測試區分開來的詳細顏色都會很棒。

Yes. It's Sanjay. I'll take the first one. So from a services perspective, yes, in the quarter, we did see some drop in or supplies' demand. And really some of it was tied to the upgrade of kind of existing testers that are being kind of reconfigured at OSATs to test other silicon -- providers of silicon. And it was a very high quarter from a services perspective. We did have some increases on new testers as well. But we expect that business to kind of continue. At or -- once we get through, I would say, the migration or repurposing of existing testers of the OSATs for other customers. So we expect that to be a little bit up in the very short term but get back to normal over the midterm.

是的。這是桑傑。我就拿第一個。因此，從服務的角度來看，是的，在本季度，我們確實看到供應需求下降。實際上，其中一些與現有測試儀的升級有關，這些測試儀正在 OSAT 中進行重新配置，以測試其他晶片（晶片提供者）。從服務角度來看，這是一個非常高的季度。我們確實也增加了新測試人員的數量。但我們預計這項業務會持續下去。我想說的是，一旦我們完成了為其他客戶遷移或重新利用現有 OSAT 測試人員的工作。因此，我們預計這一數字在短期內會略有上升，但在中期會恢復正常。

And then the HDD and SLT.

然後是 HDD 和 SLT。

Yes. So on HDD and SLT. So roughly, the way to think about it is, today, the revenue split there is almost 50-50. It fluctuates, but roughly 50-50. Going forward, there's a lot -- there's actually upside on both sides of this. So on the HDD side, what really has been driving that business historically has been exabyte growth rates. But the -- this is a similar story to test intensity. These 18-plus -- giga, terabyte-plus drives that are being produced and the roadmaps that we have, have rather sophisticated electronics to allow for high-density error-free read/write operations that require more test intensity. So we're getting a multiplicative effect on the HDD side a bit on top of exabyte growth. So we are optimistic that, that leg of the stool in storage test can continue to grow.

是的。 HDD 和 SLT 也是如此。大致來說，今天的收入分成幾乎是 50-50。它有波動，但大約50-50。展望未來，有很多——實際上雙方都有好處。因此，在 HDD 方面，歷史上真正推動該業務的是 EB 成長率。但這是一個與測試強度類似的故事。這些正在生產的 18+ 千兆、太字節以上驅動器以及我們擁有的路線圖，具有相當複雜的電子設備，可以實現需要更高測試強度的高密度無錯誤讀取/寫入操作。因此，除了 EB 成長之外，我們還在 HDD 方面獲得了乘數效應。所以我們樂觀地認為，儲存測試中的凳子腿可以繼續增長。

SLT is a little more -- a harder thing to...

SLT 更難一些…

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

So the -- on the other side of it, the SLT side, chiplets and things like that, certainly, that complexity presents an opportunity for more system-level test, testing the module, so to speak, before they go into a higher value-added subassembly is going to be a premium. So that's the theory. And we're in various trials around various customers to see if economically, it makes sense to -- for those class of parts, add a test insertion. It's made sense for some mobility parts.

因此，另一方面，SLT 方面、小晶片和類似的東西，當然，這種複雜性提供了進行更多系統級測試的機會，可以說，在它們進入更高的價值之前測試模組-添加的組件將是一個溢價。這就是理論。我們正在圍繞不同的客戶進行各種試驗，以了解對於這些類別的零件，添加測試插入是否經濟實惠。這對於某些移動部件來說是有意義的。

But remember, those are billion of units a year. So the question really that we haven't gone out on a limb yet and really answered for ourselves is how far down the unit volume equation can SLT go to make sense. So that one, I'd say, is still a bit of a wildcard.

但請記住，這些是每年十億個單位。因此，我們尚未竭盡全力並真正為自己解答的問題是，SLT 的單位體積方程式到底能走多遠才有意義。所以我想說，這個仍然是一個通配符。

Our next question or comment comes from the line of Atif Malik from Citi.

我們的下一個問題或評論來自花旗銀行的 Atif Malik。

First one, for Mark. Mark, if you can remind us about your opportunity on the compute side. There's a discussion that the die sizes for the CPUs for a North American customer notebooks next year, it could be 3 to 5x larger than what's used in tablets. Can you just talk about the compute opportunity for Teradyne this year and next year?

第一個，給馬克。馬克，您能否提醒我們您在計算方面的機會。有討論稱，明年北美客戶筆記型電腦的 CPU 晶片尺寸可能比平板電腦中使用的晶片尺寸大 3 到 5 倍。您能談談泰瑞達今年和明年的電腦會嗎？

Well, compute is an area that Teradyne really hasn't participated in since the '90s. The UltraFLEXplus was specifically designed to give us that opportunity to break back into that segment. And again, roughly, just to give you numbers, you can think of compute is somewhere in that $600 million a year TAM in the total market right now. I expect that's going to grow because of the diversity of suppliers of compute devices is growing.

嗯，計算是泰瑞達自 90 年代以來就沒有真正涉足的領域。 UltraFLEXplus 是專門為讓我們有機會重新進入該細分市場而設計的。再說一次，粗略地，只是給你一些數字，你可以認為計算在目前整個市場中每年 6 億美元的 TAM 中的某個位置。我預計這一數字將會成長，因為計算設備供應商的多樣性正在不斷增長。

There's a bit of a disaggregation of the supply chain for compute devices. So the UltraFLEXplus is targeted there. It's had some success already in that mission, and we expect that will continue. So I do think it's a rich area for us. But to put it in perspective, it's a market that's about maybe around $600 million on average now, could grow to $800 million in the next year or 2.

計算設備的供應鏈有些分散。因此，UltraFLEXplus 的目標就是這一點。它已經在該任務中取得了一些成功，我們預計這種情況將繼續下去。所以我確實認為這對我們來說是一個富裕的地區。但從長遠來看，這個市場現在平均約為 6 億美元，在未來一兩年內可能會成長到 8 億美元。

Great. And then Sanjay, there was no material impact to your sales from military end use China restrictions, like you talked about. But can you talk about if the demand from domestic China semiconductors, memory and logic was higher than what you expected in both Q3 and Q4? And how big is domestic China semiconductors as a percentage of your total sales?

偉大的。然後桑傑，正如您所說，中國軍事最終用途限制對您的銷售沒有重大影響。但您能否談談第三季和第四季中國國內半導體、記憶體和邏輯的需求是否高於您的預期？中國本土半導體佔你們總銷售額的比例有多大？

Yes. So maybe I'll start with the end. So roughly 15% in Q3 of our sales were China based. And so it's true that with the regulations, either tied to Huawei or discussions about SMEC or the military end use. Really from a military end use perspective, there's a tremendous amount of internal compliance work that we're doing to ensure that we are compliant with the regulations. And it has not had a material impact on our revenue stream.

是的。所以也許我會從結尾開始。因此，我們第三季約 15% 的銷售額來自中國。因此，確實存在與華為相關的法規，或與 SMEC 或軍事最終用途相關的法規。實際上，從軍事最終用途的角度來看，我們正在做大量的內部合規工作，以確保我們遵守法規。它並沒有對我們的收入來源產生重大影響。

And I think in earlier remarks we've made is that as the end market remains the same. And the different silicon providers are providing solutions for that end market, we feel good about our position on that front. So it's a -- there are some short term disruptions. We talked about service upgrades for testers that are being redeployed at the OSATs that we're servicing high silicon solutions and now going to be servicing other solutions. So that's the type of stuff we're seeing in the short term. But in the long term, we feel good about our position because we see it as a share shift where we're positioned well.

我認為我們在之前的評論中說過，終端市場保持不變。不同的晶片供應商正在為該終端市場提供解決方案，我們對我們在這方面的地位感到滿意。因此，存在一些短期中斷。我們討論了測試人員的服務升級，這些測試人員正在 OSAT 中重新部署，我們為高矽解決方案提供服務，現在將為其他解決方案提供服務。這就是我們短期內看到的情況。但從長遠來看，我們對自己的地位感覺良好，因為我們認為這是我們處於有利地位的份額轉變。

Our next question or comment comes from the line of Krish Sankar from Cowen & Company.

我們的下一個問題或評論來自 Cowen & Company 的 Krish Sankar。

I have 2 of them. Mark, thanks for the qualitative color on calendar '21, and I understand it's very hard to quantify it at this time. But if you look at the SOC test market, it's kind of grown for the last 4 or 5 years. A lot of it is because of increased complexity. But the memory test market in the last 4 years has been more cyclical up and down. Do you think memory is at an inflection where you could see as LPDDR5 and everything else comes along that you might be in a prolonged strength for memory like SOC? And then I have a follow-up.

我有 2 個。馬克，感謝 21 年日曆上的定性顏色，我知道目前很難對其進行量化。但如果你看看 SOC 測試市場，你會發現它在過去 4 到 5 年裡一直在成長。這很大程度是因為複雜性增加。但最近4年的記憶體測試市場更具週期性的上下波動。您是否認為記憶體正處於一個拐點，您可以看到 LPDDR5 以及其他一切的出現，您可能會像 SOC 這樣的記憶體處於長期優勢？然後我有一個後續行動。

Yes. So on memory, you're right. Absolutely, it's been cyclical for the past few years. There are good compelling arguments that it could be pretty less volatile and more sustained high-level investments over the next few. Certainly, our memory team believes that. And because of LPDDR5 and DDR5 transitions that are imminent, that's going to compel a lot of investment on the DRAM side.

是的。所以根據記憶，你是對的。當然，過去幾年它一直是週期性的。有充分令人信服的論點表明，在接下來的幾年裡，它的波動性可能會大大降低，並且高層投資會更加持續。當然，我們的記憶團隊相信這一點。由於 LPDDR5 和 DDR5 過渡迫在眉睫，這將迫使 DRAM 方面進行大量投資。

So I just don't see the downside in memory nearly as typical as we've seen in the past decade. I think the DRAM story alone is going to keep the memory market pretty healthy. So then the question is flash. And flash is a tougher one to read. The only thing I'd say that's encouraging is this relentless innovation around the interface speeds of flash drives a lot of tester demand and drives obsolescence of the fleet. And the roadmaps there are pretty robust.

因此，我認為記憶體的缺點並不像過去十年那麼常見。我認為光是 DRAM 的故事就能讓記憶體市場保持相當健康的狀態。那麼接下來的問題就是flash。而閃存則更難讀取。我想說的唯一令人鼓舞的是，圍繞閃存介面速度的不懈創新滿足了許多測試人員的需求，並推動了設備的淘汰。那裡的路線圖非常穩健。

These cellphones and the camera systems in the cellphones just generate an incredible amount of data that needs to be quickly moved in and out of flash. So I'm kind of optimistic that memory in the next 4 years won't be as volatile as it's been, let's say, in the last 4 or 5.

這些手機和手機中的相機系統會產生大量數據，需要快速移入和移出閃光燈。因此，我對未來 4 年的記憶體不會像過去 4 或 5 年那樣不穩定感到樂觀。

Got it. That's helpful. And then as a follow-up, on the Industrial Automation side, how much of your IA revenues are from the auto vertical? And how much are coming from small and medium businesses?

知道了。這很有幫助。接下來，在工業自動化方面，你們的 IA 收入有多少來自汽車垂直領域？有多少來自中小企業？

35%.

35%。

Yes. It's Sanjay here. So from the auto perspective, it's in the neighborhood of 35%-ish. And sorry, your second question?

是的。我是桑傑。所以從汽車的角度來看，這個比例在 35% 左右。抱歉，你的第二個問題？

How much from SMB?

SMB 多少錢？

Small and medium size business.

中小型企業。

I don't know. We'd have to dig that one out. But it's been running in that sort of, I'd say, 75% range. So it's still the vast majority of our sales. The larger enterprises have been a growing percentage over the past 3 to 4 years. But that's a rough number.

我不知道。我們得把那個挖出來。但我想說，它一直在 75% 的範圍內運行。所以這仍然是我們銷售額的絕大多數。在過去的三、四年裡，規模較大的企業所佔的比例不斷增加。但這是一個粗略的數字。

Our next question or comment comes from the line of John Pitzer from Crédit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題或評論來自瑞士信貸銀行的約翰·皮策 (John Pitzer)。

Mark just a follow-up to Mehdi's earlier question on Huawei. To the extent that they were historically a large customer, a lot of those testers are sitting at OSATs and can be repurposed. I'm just kind of curious, do you -- how much insight do you have into kind of that installed base and its ability to move to additional customers or new customers? And I guess, are you putting up these results despite the fact of that? Or is that something that we need to kind of worry about in future quarters?

馬克只是邁赫迪之前關於華為的問題的後續。就他們歷史上的大客戶而言，許多測試人員都在 OSAT 工作並且可以重新利用。我只是有點好奇，您對現有客戶群及其吸引更多客戶或新客戶的能力有多少了解？我想，儘管如此，你還是會公佈這些結果嗎？或者這是我們在未來幾季需要擔心的事情？

So we have decent visibility into the utilization of those testers. But the high-level picture I'd give you is, let's say there's 100 testers out there for Huawei that we're testing 1 billion parts a year. As Huawei ends up unable to supply those 1 billion parts, the first immediate reaction is, oh, that's 100 idle testers. They've got to go somewhere. But the fact of the matter is that somebody else has to supply those 1 billion parts because the end-user demand isn't changing that much because of this.

因此，我們對這些測試人員的利用率有很好的了解。但我想向您提供的總體情況是，假設華為有 100 名測試人員，我們每年測試 10 億個零件。當華為最終無法供應這10億個零件時，第一個反應是，哦，那是100個閒置的測試人員。他們必須去某個地方。但事實是，其他人必須供應這 10 億個零件，因為最終用戶的需求並沒有因此而改變太多。

So -- and typically, by the way, those suppliers at the moment are outside of China suppliers that are filling in that billion unit gap to use this analogy. So that -- and then those testers that were idle, just sort of shift from testing parts that had the high silicon Huawei brand stamp on them to testing parts that have these other suppliers' brands on them, but they're very similar in nature. So the upgrades to facilitate that shift of the fleet over to those new sources of supply started in earnest in Q3.

因此，順便說一句，目前這些供應商通常都是中國以外的供應商，他們正在填補這個類比的十億單位缺口。因此，然後那些閒置的測試人員，只是從測試帶有高矽華為品牌印記的部件轉向測試帶有其他供應商品牌的部件，但它們本質上非常相似。因此，旨在促進機隊轉向新供應源的升級工作在第三季正式開始。

And so despite the fact that there's already repurposing happening at a pretty good clip of those testers, we're putting up the numbers we put up, and we're guiding the numbers we're guiding, and we expect that will continue in Q4. When will that entire fleet get repurposed is kind of the last end game question in that, and that's harder to tell. We may end up not seeing that fully flushed out until somewhere in the second quarter of next year.

因此，儘管事實上這些測試人員已經在相當好的一段時間內進行了重新利用，但我們正在公佈我們公佈的數字，我們正在指導我們正在指導的數字，我們預計這將在第四季度繼續下去。整個艦隊何時才能重新利用是最後一個最終問題，而且很難說。直到明年第二季的某個時候，我們最終可能不會看到它完全消失。

That's really helpful. And then Mark, as my follow-up. In the quarter, you guys created a new role in the IA division and you put in place there a very incredible guy in the form of Greg Smith. I'm wondering if you could spend a little bit of time just kind of helping us understand the rationale and how we should think about this -- Greg's sort of efforts in IA and what it means to the overall strategy there?

這真的很有幫助。然後是馬克，作為我的跟進者。在本季度，你們在 IA 部門創建了一個新角色，並任命了一位非常不可思議的人，即 Greg Smith。我想知道您是否可以花一點時間幫助我們理解其基本原理以及我們應該如何思考這個問題——Greg 在 IA 方面所做的努力以及它對那裡的整體戰略意味著什麼？

Yes. Thank you for asking that because Greg is a very proven exceptional leader and has driven our semiconductor test business here for the past 5 years. And it's a significant testament to both what we, as a company, and Greg personally believes the opportunities are in IA for future growth. And Greg's mission really is in looking at the portfolio we have is to look for areas where we can get leverage, enhance our M&A strategy, look for common investments that will give us both in software and hardware, further differentiation. And sort of bring more of the resources of the company to bear on those businesses.

是的。感謝您提出這個問題，因為 Greg 是一位經過驗證的傑出領導者，在過去 5 年裡一直推動我們的半導體測試業務。這有力地證明了我們作為一家公司和 Greg 個人都相信 IA 未來發展的機會。格雷格的使命實際上是審視我們擁有的投資組合，尋找我們可以利用的領域，加強我們的併購策略，尋找共同投資，這將使我們在軟體和硬體方面獲得進一步的差異化。並在某種程度上將公司的更多資源用於這些業務。

Most of them are now through their earn-out phase, which gave us a little bit of -- there were a little bit of handcuffs on there of how we could think about operating those businesses. But now that that's behind us, we have a lot more degrees of freedom. And Greg is going to be a great resource to figure that out for us.

他們中的大多數現在已經進入盈利階段，這給我們帶來了一些——我們如何思考經營這些業務的一些束縛。但現在這已經成為過去，我們擁有了更多的自由度。格雷格將成為我們解決這個問題的重要資源。

Our next question or comment comes from the line of Sidney Ho from Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題或評論來自德意志銀行的 Sidney Ho。

I have 2. My first question is on the SOC test market. The mobility is roughly half of the SOC TAM today. I think, Mark, you mentioned $1.6 billion of the $3.3 billion this year. Can you remind us what are the other main buckets within the SOC test market? And which segments are still below the normal run rate? Maybe help us size how much below the normal levels in some of those markets, please?

我有 2.我的第一個問題是關於 SOC 測試市場的。其機動性大約是當今 SOC TAM 的一半。我想，馬克，你提到了今年 33 億美元中的 16 億美元。您能否提醒我們 SOC 測試市場中的其他主要領域是什麼？哪些細分市場的開工率仍低於正常水準？也許請幫助我們確定其中一些市場比正常水平低多少？

Okay. I'll give you sort of the rough numbers. So there's a compute segment that is CPUs and FPGAs and AI and all that good stuff, that's roughly $600 million that we just spoke about. And it's actually a little bit hot, too. I'd say it's running -- it's another growth segment for some of the reasons I talked about earlier. There's automotive and linear and microcontrollers. That this year -- and again, these are rough estimates, but it's roughly around $200 million to $250 million market. That's less than half of its normal run rate.

好的。我會給你一些粗略的數字。因此，有一個計算領域，包括 CPU、FPGA 和人工智慧以及所有這些好東西，我們剛才談到的大約是 6 億美元。實際上也有點熱。我想說它正在運行——出於我之前談到的一些原因，這是另一個增長部分。有汽車、線性和微控制器。今年——再說一次，這些都是粗略的估計，但市場規模大約在 2 億至 2.5 億美元左右。這還不到正常運作率的一半。

A normal run rate for that business would be $500-ish million. So that one is certainly -- and it's down from last year as well. So it's trending down and it's half. And then the last one we track is industrial. Industrial is somewhere like around $300 million. And it's also down from a normal run rate that might be closer to -- it's not as volatile, but it's probably up in the high 3s to $400 million.

該業務的正常運作率約為 5 億美元。所以這個數字肯定是——而且也比去年有所下降。所以它呈下降趨勢，而且下降了一半。我們追蹤的最後一個是工業領域。工業價值約 3 億美元。而且它也低於正常運行率，可能更接近——它沒有那麼波動，但它可能會上升到 3 億美元左右。

Great. That's super helpful. My follow-up question is as you talk about an increase in demand for short-term lead time -- lead time businesses in Q3. Does that -- does your 4Q guidance assume any kind of headwinds from any kind of supply constraints in any of the product lines?

偉大的。這非常有幫助。我的後續問題是，當您談到第三季的短期交貨期業務需求增加時。您的第四季指引是否假設任何產品線中的任何供應限制都會帶來任何阻力？

Right now -- it's Sanjay here. So right now, we're not -- we believe that there could be some issues that arise. But the last 6 months has clearly shown us that we can overcome what those hurdles are. Nothing is perfect, but we feel that we're in a very good spot in replenishing our components and manufacturing. And if there are things that come up, we've got some capability to solve those problems. So at this point, there's no supply constraints.

現在——桑傑在這裡。所以現在，我們認為可能會出現一些問題。但過去 6 個月的情況清楚地表明，我們可以克服這些障礙。沒有什麼是完美的，但我們認為我們在補充零件和製造方面處於非常有利的位置。如果出現問題，我們有能力解決這些問題。所以目前不存在供應限制。

Our final question or comment comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri from UBS.

我們的最後一個問題或評論來自瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的 Timothy Arcuri。

So I had 2. The first thing, Mark, I'm still trying to figure out on the SOC share point. The TAM of $3.3 billion, it's not a whole lot different than what you thought it would be at the start of the year. And at that time, you thought your share would go from roughly 40% to mid -- to roughly mid-40s. Here we are, we're kind of mid-50s this year.

所以我有 2。 TAM 為 33 億美元，與您年初的預期並沒有太大不同。那時，您認為自己的份額將從大約 40% 上升到大約 40% 左右。我們今年已經是 50 多歲了。

So I guess I'm trying to understand where the incremental 1,000 basis points of share came from. Was this your biggest customer ordering more? Was this something else? Maybe you can double-click on that a little bit, and then I have a follow-up. Because it sounds like it's not really 5G, you said that 5G is only like a $50 million swing factor for the whole market. So I'm still trying to figure out where that share came from versus your expectations?

所以我想我正在嘗試了解增量 1,000 個基點的份額從何而來。這是您最大的客戶訂購更多嗎？這是別的什麼嗎？也許你可以雙擊一下，然後我會進行後續操作。因為聽起來這不是真正的5G，所以你說5G對於整個市場來說只是一個5000萬美元的搖擺因素。所以我仍在試圖弄清楚這個份額與您的期望相比來自哪裡？

Yes. So at the highest, highest level, it's just that the market -- the supply side of the semiconductor market has shifted more favorably to our customers. But underneath that, why is that? Well, one thing we didn't see happening when the year started was that further regulations would come into place on Huawei and drive them out of the market for silicon and test. And since that occurred, what happened, as I described a bit earlier, was other suppliers have had to step in and fill the void, and we're better positioned at those other suppliers. So that is an upside. Our customers, our traditional customers, independent of that particular situation, are also buying more than we had forecast. So that is absolutely another piece of the upside.

是的。因此，在最高、最高水準上，只是市場——半導體市場的供應方已經轉向更有利於我們的客戶。但在這之下，這是為什麼呢？嗯，年初時我們沒有看到發生的一件事是，將對華為實施進一步的監管，並將其趕出晶片和測試市場。自從那件事發生以來，正如我之前所描述的，其他供應商不得不介入並填補空白，而我們在這些其他供應商中處於更好的位置。所以這是一個好處。我們的客戶，我們的傳統客戶，無論具體情況如何，購買的數量也超出了我們的預測。所以這絕對是另一個好處。

I'd say those are the 2 most significant ones. And then the third one, which isn't an SOC thing, but I think is a total company thing is on the memory side, the fact that the market has been so hot, and that our LPDDR5 ramp has been probably better than we expected, has helped on that side as well.

我想說這是兩個最重要的。然後是第三個，這不是 SOC 的事情，但我認為這是整個公司的事情，是在內存方面，市場如此火爆，而且我們的 LPDDR5 斜坡可能比我們預期的要好，在這方面也有所幫助。

Got it. And then I guess for my second question, just on the point about Huawei. So you saw the original bump in the capacity required for Huawei from the OSATs. And now you're seeing some boost from upgrades to that fleet. Can you sort of quantify how much of a boost these upgrades are giving you? So I guess, how much of the [$449 million] SOC revenue was related to the upgrade of this fleet for non-Huawei OEMs?

知道了。然後我想回答我的第二個問題，就是關於華為的問題。所以你看到了華為 OSAT 所需產能的最初增加。現在您會看到該機隊的升級帶來了一些提升。您能量化一下這些升級為您帶來了多少提升嗎？所以我猜，[4.49 億美元] SOC 收入中有多少與非華為 OEM 設備的升級有關？

Yes. It's less than 10%, but more than 5%.

是的。雖然不到10%，但也超過5%。

Okay. Folks, we are out of time. Thanks so much for joining us again this quarter, and I'll follow-up with folks individually that are still in the queue. Again thanks so much. Take care.

好的。各位，我們的時間不多了。非常感謝您本季再次加入我們，我將單獨跟進仍在排隊的人員。再次非常感謝。小心。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This concludes the program. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a wonderful day.

女士們、先生們，感謝你們參加今天的會議。程式到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。祝大家有美好的一天。