泰瑞達 (TER) 2019 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Teradyne Q4 2019 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

各位女士、先生，感謝您稍候，歡迎參加 Teradyne 2019 年第四季財報電話會議。(接線員指示) 請注意，今天的會議將被錄音。(接線員指示)

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker, Mr. Andrew Blanchard. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我想把會議交給今天的講者 Andrew Blanchard 先生。先生，請開始。

Thank you, Sherry. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our discussion of Teradyne's most recent financial results. I'm joined this morning by our CEO, Mark Jagiela; and CFO, Sanjay Mehta. Following our opening remarks, we'll provide details of our performance for 2019's fourth quarter and full year, along with our outlook for the first quarter of 2020. The press release containing our fourth quarter results was issued last evening. We're providing slides on the investor page of the website that may be helpful to you in following the discussion. Replay of this call will be available via the same page after the call ends.

謝謝你，Sherry。各位早安，歡迎參加我們對 Teradyne 最新財務結果的討論。今天早上與我一同出席的有我們的執行長 Mark Jagiela，以及財務長 Sanjay Mehta。在開場致詞之後，我們將提供 2019 年第四季與全年表現的細節，並分享我們對 2020 年第一季的展望。包含第四季結果的新聞稿已於昨晚發布。我們在網站的投資人頁面提供投影片，可能有助於您跟進本次討論。本次電話會議結束後，可透過同一頁面收聽重播。

The matters that we discuss today will include forward-looking statements that involve risk factors that could cause Teradyne's results to differ materially from management's current expectations. We encourage you to review the safe harbor statements contained in the earnings release as well as our most recent SEC filings. Additionally, those forward-looking statements are made as of today, and we take no obligation to update them as a result of developments occurring after this call.

我們今天討論的事項將包含前瞻性陳述，涉及可能導致 Teradyne 結果與管理層目前預期有重大差異的風險因素。我們鼓勵您查閱財報新聞稿中的安全港聲明，以及我們最近向 SEC 提交的文件。此外，這些前瞻性陳述係以今日為準，我們不承擔因本次電話會議後發生之發展而更新之義務。

During today's call, we'll make reference to non-GAAP financial measures. We've posted additional information concerning these non-GAAP financial measures, including reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure where available on the investor page [of the website]. Also, please take special note of the safe (technical difficulty) press release and slide deck for risks associated to potential changes in U.S. export regulations.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將提及非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。我們已在網站的投資人頁面張貼與這些非 GAAP 財務衡量指標相關的補充資訊，包括（如可取得）與最直接可比的 GAAP 財務衡量指標之調節表。另外，請特別注意新聞稿與投影片中關於美國出口法規可能變更之相關風險的安全（技術問題）。

Looking ahead, between now and our next earnings call, Teradyne will be participating in technology- or industrial-focused investor conferences hosted by Goldman Sachs, Citi, Barclays and Susquehanna.

展望未來，在現在到下一次財報電話會議之間，Teradyne 將參加由 Goldman Sachs、Citi、Barclays 與 Susquehanna 主辦、以科技或工業為主題的投資人研討會。

Now let's get on with the rest of the agenda. First, Mark will comment on our recent results and the market conditions as we enter the new year. Sanjay will then offer more details on our quarterly results, along with our guidance for the first quarter. We'll then answer your questions, and this call is scheduled for 1 hour.

現在我們繼續進行其餘議程。首先，Mark 將評論我們近期的結果，以及進入新年度時的市場狀況。接著 Sanjay 將提供更多季度結果細節，並說明我們對第一季的指引。之後我們將回答各位的問題，本次電話會議預計為 1 小時。

Thanks, Andy, and hello, everyone. In today's call, I'll note our Q4 and 2019 full year highlights and comment on our outlook for 2020. Sanjay will then provide the financial details. (technical difficulty) and as we do each January, update you on our earnings model and capital allocation plans.

謝謝你，Andy，各位好。在今天的電話會議中，我將說明我們第四季與 2019 全年的重點，並評論我們對 2020 年的展望。接著 Sanjay 將提供財務細節。(技術問題) 並且如同我們每年一月所做的，向各位更新我們的獲利模型與資本配置計畫。

We ended the year on a very strong (technical difficulty), with sales up 26% from the fourth quarter of 2018 and non-GAAP earnings per share up 40%. That brought our full year sales to about $2.3 billion, up 9%, and non-GAAP EPS to $2.86, up 21% versus 2018.

我們在（技術問題）非常強勁的態勢下結束年度，銷售額較 2018 年第四季成長 26%，非 GAAP 每股盈餘成長 40%。這使我們全年銷售額約為 23 億美元，成長 9%，非 GAAP EPS 為 2.86 美元，較 2018 年成長 21%。

Looking back at 2019, our test businesses performed well above our plan. Industrial Automation showed solid growth but came in below plan on manufacturing sector headwinds in the U.S. and Europe. In Semi Test, the above-plan results came primarily from 3 areas: first, 5G infrastructure buildout in China; second, significant smartphone complexity growth; and third, memory test share gains.

回顧 2019 年，我們的測試業務表現遠優於原先計畫。工業自動化（Industrial Automation）呈現穩健成長，但受美國與歐洲製造業逆風影響，全年表現低於計畫。在半導體測試（Semi Test）方面，超出計畫的結果主要來自三個領域：第一，中國的 5G 基礎建設；第二，智慧型手機複雜度顯著提升；第三，記憶體測試市占提升。

We estimate the 5G infrastructure buildout contributed about $200 million to the $3.3 billion SOC TAM in 2019, and we captured a sizable portion of that spending. As stated in prior calls, this buildout has, for the moment, been mostly concentrated in China.

我們估計 5G 基礎建設在 2019 年對 33 億美元的 SOC TAM 貢獻約 2 億美元，而我們掌握了其中相當大的一部分支出。如同先前電話會議所述，這波建設目前大多集中在中國。

In smartphones, complexity growth was very strong, driving up test intensity and, therefore, tester demand. The growth is largely unrelated to 5G as 5G handset volume was insignificant in 2019. Rather, the steady increase of features like multiple (technical difficulty) cameras, enhanced photo and video processing and new connectivity features drove test demand. In particular, image sensor test demand was very strong as there was broad adoption of 3 to 4 backside cameras in a wide variety.

在智慧型手機方面，複雜度成長非常強勁，推升測試強度，因而帶動測試機需求。此成長大致與 5G 無關，因為 2019 年 5G 手機出貨量仍不顯著。相反地，多（技術問題）鏡頭、強化的照片與影片處理，以及新的連線功能等特性持續增加，帶動測試需求。尤其是影像感測器的測試需求非常強勁，因為各式各樣的機型廣泛採用 3 到 4 顆背面鏡頭。

The third driver was memory. While the memory market declined as expected by about 35% from 2018, our sales were down about 3% as NAND test spending was buoyed by (technical difficulty) higher-speed devices and by investments from emerging suppliers in memory. Less significant in 2019 revenue but a significant impact going forward was our successful break into the DRAM (technical difficulty) testing, our new Magnum Epic LPDDR5 DRAM tester. This expands Teradyne's TAM, now serve all 4 segments of the test market with our Magnum platform.

第三個驅動因素是記憶體。雖然記憶體市場如預期較 2018 年下滑約 35%，但我們的銷售僅下滑約 3%，因為 NAND 測試支出受（技術問題）更高速裝置以及新興記憶體供應商投資所支撐。2019 年營收占比雖較不顯著，但對未來影響重大的，是我們成功切入 DRAM（技術問題）測試，推出新的 Magnum Epic LPDDR5 DRAM 測試機。這擴大了 Teradyne 的 TAM，使我們現在能以 Magnum 平台服務測試市場的全部四個區隔。

Our System Test and LitePoint test businesses also delivered above-plan results. In System Test, defense and aerospace, production board test and storage test all delivered strong growth for the full year. Storage test performance is especially noteworthy (technical difficulty) 70% coming from the increased test intensity of terabyte HDD drives and a growing business in the system-level test of complex semiconductor devices. While at LitePoint, new connectivity standards, along with early buy-in for the 5G handset test market, are the principal drivers of 19% growth for the full year.

我們的系統測試（System Test）與 LitePoint 測試業務也交出高於計畫的成果。在系統測試方面，國防與航太、量產板卡測試以及儲存測試，全年皆呈現強勁成長。儲存測試的表現尤其值得注意，（技術問題）其中約 70% 來自 TB 級 HDD 硬碟測試強度提升，以及在複雜半導體裝置系統層級測試方面的業務成長。至於 LitePoint，新連線標準以及對 5G 手機測試市場的早期導入，是全年 19% 成長的主要驅動因素。

While our test businesses operated above plan, our IA business performance was solid but below plan for the year, growing 12% on a pro forma basis. Individually, UR grew 6% and MiR grew 43% on a pro forma basis. As we've discussed, at UR, we've had high exposure to the global automotive supply chain and general European manufacturing sector, both of which faced strong economic headwinds throughout the year. On the other hand, MiR's mobile robots serve a more diverse range of end markets and showed solid growth in the year.

雖然我們的測試業務運作優於計畫，但我們的 IA 業務全年表現穩健但低於計畫，以擬制（pro forma）基礎計算成長 12%。個別來看，UR 以擬制基礎成長 6%，MiR 以擬制基礎成長 43%。如同我們先前討論過的，UR 對全球汽車供應鏈與歐洲一般製造業的曝險較高，而這兩者在全年都面臨強勁的經濟逆風。另一方面，MiR 的移動式機器人服務更為多元的終端市場，全年呈現穩健成長。

2019 was also a big year for Teradyne on the new product front. These new products both strengthen our core positions and set us up to profitably grow in the future. In Semi Test, we introduced the UltraFLEXplus platform, targeting the AI and big data markets, the Magnum Epic platform for LPDDR5 DRAM final test and the MX44 instrument for 5G millimeter wave device test. At LitePoint, we introduced new members of our IQgig and IQxel families of production testers for 5G handsets and [semi] (technical difficulty) WiFi, respectively.

2019 年對 Teradyne 而言，在新產品方面也是重要的一年。這些新產品不僅強化我們的核心地位，也讓我們能在未來以更高獲利能力成長。在半導體測試方面，我們推出 UltraFLEXplus 平台，鎖定 AI 與大數據市場；推出用於 LPDDR5 DRAM 最終測試的 Magnum Epic 平台；以及用於 5G 毫米波裝置測試的 MX44 儀器。在 LitePoint，我們分別推出 IQgig 與 IQxel 系列的新成員，作為 5G 手機與[半導體]（技術問題）WiFi 的量產測試機。

In System Test, we ramped production of the spectrum high-speed tester for complex defense electronic systems. In Industrial Automation, we introduced the UR16e cobot for higher payload and began delivery of our bin picking solution to multiple beta site customers in Q4.

在系統測試方面，我們提升了用於複雜國防電子系統的 Spectrum 高速測試機之量產爬坡。在工業自動化方面，我們推出可承載更高負載的 UR16e 協作機器人，並於第四季開始向多個 beta 測試場域客戶交付我們的料箱取料（bin picking）解決方案。

In mobile robots, we introduced the MiR1000 for increased payloads and the MiR AI camera system that utilizes AI to improve robot traffic flow in busy industrial settings. And our engineering pipeline is full of future products across all groups.

在移動式機器人方面，我們推出可承載更高負載的 MiR1000，以及利用 AI 改善繁忙工業環境中機器人交通流的 MiR AI 相機系統。而我們在各事業群的工程研發管線中，也充滿了未來產品。

Rounding out 2019, our balanced approach to capital allocation resulted in the strategic acquisition of AutoGuide, serving the nascent autonomous mobile forklift market. We also continued our capital return program with $500 million in share buybacks and $61 million in dividends.

在2019年收官之際，我們在資本配置上採取均衡策略，促成對 AutoGuide 的策略性收購，以服務新興的自主移動式叉車市場。我們也持續推動資本回饋計畫，進行5億美元的股票回購並發放6,100萬美元股利。

Looking forward to 2020, we see continued strong momentum in our test businesses and an improvement in our IA growth. Early returns on our new products are positive with the UltraFLEXplus winning a significant competitive design-in during Q4 in the mobility space and the Magnum Epic tester winning in LPDDR final test at a major memory maker. These early wins in Semi Test contribute to our strong outlook for the first quarter.

展望2020年，我們看到測試業務持續強勁的動能，以及工業自動化（IA）成長的改善。新產品的初期回饋正面：UltraFLEXplus 在第四季於行動領域贏得一項重要的競爭性設計導入（design-in），而 Magnum Epic 測試機也在一家主要記憶體製造商的 LPDDR 最終測試中勝出。這些在半導體測試（Semi Test）的早期勝利，支撐我們對第一季的強勁展望。

I'd like to give you some context on how we're looking into 2020. First, we expect our smartphone test demand to be strong and back to levels similar to what we saw in 2016 and 2017. As then, we expect our 2020 revenue will be first half weighted in the year. Second, we expect storage test to be especially strong in the first half for both HDD and system-level test applications. For the year, it's expected to grow about 40% from 2019. Third, the design wins for the Magnum Epic and the UltraFLEXplus will begin to ramp in Q1, and this represents new customers and new segments that we expect to contribute revenue growth over the midterm.

我想提供一些我們如何看待2020年的背景。第一，我們預期智慧型手機測試需求將維持強勁，並回到與2016年及2017年相近的水準。如同當時，我們預期2020年的營收將偏重於上半年。第二，我們預期儲存測試在上半年將特別強勁，涵蓋 HDD 與系統層級測試應用。全年而言，預期將較2019年成長約40%。第三，Magnum Epic 與 UltraFLEXplus 的設計案勝利將於第一季開始放量，這代表新的客戶與新的細分市場，我們預期在中期將帶動營收成長。

Balancing this strength, we are seeing the expected pause in the 5G infrastructure test buying to power our 2019 sales. At a high level, we're seeing the 5G demand evolve from infrastructure to smartphones, as we outlined in past calls. The global 5G infrastructure build-out is still in the early innings, and we expect test demand will cycle at various geographies build -- as various geographies build out their networks.

在平衡這股強勢之際，我們也看到為支撐2019年銷售而帶動的 5G 基礎建設測試採購出現預期中的暫停。從宏觀層面來看，正如我們在過去電話會議中所述，我們看到 5G 需求正從基礎建設轉向智慧型手機。全球 5G 基礎建設建置仍處於早期階段，我們預期測試需求將隨各地區建置網路的進程而在不同地理區域間循環變動——隨著各地區逐步完成其網路建置。

5G smartphone-related test demand will begin in 2020, but it will be somewhat modest as it's mostly low-band or sub-6G technology rolling out. Millimeter wave investments are still to come over the midterm.

與 5G 智慧型手機相關的測試需求將於2020年開始，但由於主要是低頻段或 sub-6G 技術的推出，規模將相對溫和。毫米波的投資仍將在中期逐步到來。

Additionally, we do not expect to see any significant recovery in the automotive or analog markets in 2020. As Sanjay will describe, we will be increasing our 2020 OpEx in Test to expand these design wins, accelerate some new products and take advantage of what we now expect to be a faster-growing test market over the midterm.

此外，我們預期2020年汽車或類比市場不會出現任何顯著復甦。如 Sanjay 將說明，我們將提高2020年測試業務的營運費用（OpEx），以擴大這些設計案勝利、加速部分新產品，並把握我們目前預期在中期將更快速成長的測試市場。

Taken altogether, our outlook for the 2020 SOC Test market is in the $3.1 billion to $3.4 billion range, and Memory Test is in the $650 million to $750 million range. Of course, this assumes no change in the current global trade regulatory environment. We'll update you on this outlook as we move through the year. For reference, this compares to about a $3.3 billion SOC and about a $600 million memory test market in 2019.

綜合而言，我們對2020年 SoC 測試市場的展望為31億至34億美元區間，而記憶體測試市場為6.5億至7.5億美元區間。當然，這是假設目前全球貿易監管環境不發生變化。我們將在年度進行過程中更新此展望。供參考，2019年的市場規模約為 SoC 33億美元、記憶體測試約6億美元。

Turning to Industrial Automation. Recall, our strategy is to use the power of advanced technology to democratize automation and make industrial warehouse applications more productive and safer. We remain confident of the growth opportunity as we execute this strategy, and the addition of AutoGuide gives us access to an even broader set of opportunities. While we expect the automotive and general manufacturing markets in Europe and the U.S. to remain weak, we do think this headwind has dissipated. This, combined with our expansion into the electronics manufacturing sector, other consumer goods manufacturing, bin picking and the industrial forklift automation market, gives us confidence that a higher IA growth profile in 2020 is likely.

接著談工業自動化。請回想，我們的策略是運用先進技術的力量，讓自動化更普及，並使工業倉儲應用更具生產力且更安全。在執行此策略的過程中，我們對成長機會仍具信心，而 AutoGuide 的加入讓我們得以接觸更廣泛的一系列機會。雖然我們預期歐洲與美國的汽車與一般製造市場仍將疲弱，但我們確實認為這項逆風已經消散。再加上我們擴展至電子製造領域、其他消費品製造、料箱拣選（bin picking）以及工業叉車自動化市場，使我們有信心2020年更高的 IA 成長輪廓很可能實現。

Additionally, the UR+ ecosystem continues to grow, and we ended the year with 206 certified plug-and-play solutions available, up from about 130 at the start of 2019. A similar program for our mobile autonomous robots, MiRGo, launched in 2019 and will expand in 2020. Overall, we expect our 14% IA growth in 2019 to increase to above 20% in 2020.

此外，UR+ 生態系持續成長，我們在年底時已有206項可用的認證即插即用解決方案，較2019年初約130項增加。我們針對移動式自主機器人的類似計畫 MiRGo 於2019年推出，並將在2020年擴大。整體而言，我們預期2019年14%的 IA 成長將在2020年提升至20%以上。

In summary, we enter 2020 very optimistic. While uncertainties remain in trade policies and global economies, the overall technological and economic trends that fuel our business are strong. Our new products are opening new markets and gaining new customers. Test market growth is strong, and we are still in the early innings of 5G. IA growth is solid in the environment of a U.S. and European manufacturing slowdown, and we expect that this headwind is dissipating. This, plus a strong M&A pipeline and a commitment to capital returns, remains our strategy.

總結來說，我們以非常樂觀的態度進入2020年。儘管貿易政策與全球經濟仍存在不確定性，但推動我們業務的整體技術與經濟趨勢依然強勁。我們的新產品正在開拓新市場並獲得新客戶。測試市場成長強勁，而 5G 仍處於早期階段。在美國與歐洲製造業放緩的環境下，IA 成長依然穩健，我們預期這項逆風正在消散。再加上強勁的併購（M&A）管線與對資本回饋的承諾，仍是我們的策略。

Sanjay will now take you through the financial and modeling details. Sanjay?

接下來 Sanjay 將帶各位了解財務與建模細節。Sanjay？

Thank you, Mark. Good morning, everyone. Today, I'll cover the financial highlights of Q4 and review the financial details of 2019. Looking forward, I'll provide an update to our midterm-level Q1 outlook and color around 2020, which will include our capital allocation plans.

謝謝你，Mark。各位早安。今天我將說明第四季的財務重點，並回顧2019年的財務細節。展望未來，我將更新我們中期層級的第一季展望，並補充2020年的相關說明，其中也將包含我們的資本配置計畫。

Now to Q4. Revenues were $655 million, which were $25 million above the high end of our guidance range. Semi Test revenue of $439 million led the quarter-over-quarter growth driven by memory and SOC test demand, enabling 5G infrastructure and higher speed flash and DRAM devices. System Test group had revenue of $83 million, which grew quarter-over-quarter driven by our storage test solutions, enabling system-level test for SOCs. Industrial Automation, or IA, revenue of $88 million had a seasonal increase in revenue over Q3 and grew year-over-year in an environment where significant auto industry headwinds exist. LitePoint revenue of $45 million grew quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year with new connectivity standard, WiFi 6, and cellular 5G driving revenue.

現在談第四季。營收為6.55億美元，較我們指引區間上緣高出2,500萬美元。半導體測試（Semi Test）營收4.39億美元，受記憶體與 SoC 測試需求帶動（支援 5G 基礎建設以及更高速的快閃記憶體與 DRAM 裝置），引領本季的季對季成長。系統測試事業群營收8,300萬美元，受我們的儲存測試解決方案帶動而季對季成長，支援 SoC 的系統層級測試。工業自動化（Industrial Automation，IA）營收8,800萬美元，較第三季呈現季節性增加，並在汽車產業存在顯著逆風的環境下仍實現年對年成長。LitePoint 營收4,500萬美元，在新連線標準 WiFi 6 與蜂巢式 5G 的帶動下，季對季與年對年皆成長。

Non-GAAP gross margins were 58.5%, a bit above our plan and slightly down quarter-over-quarter due to product mix. You'll see our non-GAAP operating expenses were up $19 million to $204 million for the third -- from the third quarter due to a higher variable compensation on higher profit, increased test spending to support design wins and ongoing IA investments.

非 GAAP 毛利率為58.5%，略高於我們的計畫，且因產品組合影響而較上季小幅下降。各位會看到我們的非 GAAP 營運費用較第三季增加1,900萬美元至2.04億美元，原因包括獲利較高帶動的變動薪酬增加、為支援設計案勝利而提高的測試支出，以及持續的 IA 投資。

Non-GAAP operating profit was 27%, and non-GAAP EPS was $0.88. The tax rate excluding discrete items for the quarter and the year was 15.5% on a GAAP basis and 16.5% on a non-GAAP basis. We bought back 2.1 million shares for $131 million at an average price of $62.44 in the quarter. For the full year, we bought back 10.9 million shares at an average price of $45.89. Since the start of 2015, we have spent $1.97 billion to repurchase 60.8 million shares with an average price of $32.38, which delivered significant shareholder returns over the 5-year period. We ended the year with cash and marketable security balances of approximately $1 billion.

非 GAAP 營業利益率為27%，非 GAAP 每股盈餘（EPS）為0.88美元。本季與全年（排除一次性項目）的稅率，在 GAAP 基礎下為15.5%，在非 GAAP 基礎下為16.5%。本季我們以平均每股62.44美元的價格回購210萬股，金額1.31億美元。全年我們回購1,090萬股，平均價格為45.89美元。自2015年初以來，我們已投入19.7億美元回購6,080萬股，平均價格為32.38美元，於這5年期間為股東帶來顯著回報。年底我們的現金與有價證券餘額約為10億美元。

Turning to the full year results of 2019. Teradyne revenues of $2.295 billion grew $194 million or 9%. $157 million of the growth was from our test portfolio and $37 million from IA. We had 2 customers with 10% or greater revenues in 2019, who will be disclosed in our 10-K filing. Gross margins were 58% and operating profit was 25%, which is consistent with 2018. EPS was $2.86 or 21% growth year-over-year.

接著看2019年全年業績。Teradyne營收為22.95億美元，增加1.94億美元或9%。其中1.57億美元的成長來自我們的測試產品組合，3,700萬美元來自IA。2019年我們有2位客戶的營收占比達到或超過10%，將於我們的10-K申報文件中揭露。毛利率為58%，營業利益率為25%，與2018年一致。每股盈餘（EPS）為2.86美元，年增21%。

Breaking down the components of 2019 revenues. As Mark outlined, the SOC test revenues grew $67 million or 6% on strength in 5G sub-6 infrastructure, increased complexity in mobile devices and millimeter wave development demand. In memory, revenues were $266 million, down 3% in the down market. Demand for higher-speed NAND testers from existing customers and new entrants, combined with DRAM wafer test demand, highlighted the year. Late in the year, we also received initial revenue for our Magnum Epic LPDDR5 DRAM package test system.

拆解2019年營收的組成。如Mark所述，SOC測試營收增加6,700萬美元或6%，主要受惠於5G sub-6基礎設施的強勁需求、行動裝置複雜度提升，以及毫米波開發需求。在記憶體方面，營收為2.66億美元，在市場下行下下降3%。既有客戶與新進者對更高速NAND測試機的需求，加上DRAM晶圓測試需求，成為本年度亮點。年末我們也開始認列Magnum Epic LPDDR5 DRAM封裝測試系統的初始營收。

In System Test, sales grew for the third year in a row. Revenue of $287 million grew $71 million or 33% year-over-year primarily on growth in storage test for both system-level test and HDD test, which had sales of $115 million, up from $67 million in 2018. We also saw annual growth in our defense and aerospace and production board test components of STG.

在系統測試（System Test）方面，銷售連續第三年成長。營收為2.87億美元，年增7,100萬美元或33%，主要來自儲存測試的成長，涵蓋系統層級測試與HDD測試；其中HDD測試銷售額為1.15億美元，高於2018年的6,700萬美元。我們也看到STG在國防與航太，以及生產板測試（production board test）等組件的年度成長。

At LitePoint, sales grew for a third year in a row as well. Revenue was $157 million, 19% above 2018 level. New connectivity standards were the biggest driver of demand, but we also saw surge in 5G cellular demand in Q4.

LitePoint的銷售也連續第三年成長。營收為1.57億美元，較2018年水準高出19%。新的連線標準是需求的最大驅動因素，但我們也在第四季看到5G蜂巢式需求的激增。

IA revenue of $298 million grew 14% from 2018 on an as-reported basis or 12% on a pro forma basis. Universal Robots revenue of $248 million or 6% year-over-year growth was below our original plan. As discussed by Mark, UR's demand has 40% plus exposure to manufacturing in Europe and the automotive industry, both of which faced significant market headwinds in 2019. Recent eurozone PMI data suggests a moderating trend but no indication of improvement in the near term. The auto outlook is similar.

IA營收為2.98億美元，按申報基礎（as-reported）較2018年成長14%，按擬制基礎（pro forma）成長12%。Universal Robots營收為2.48億美元，年增6%，低於我們原先的計畫。如Mark所述，UR的需求有超過40%曝險於歐洲製造業與汽車產業，而兩者在2019年都面臨顯著的市場逆風。近期歐元區PMI數據顯示趨勢趨於緩和，但短期內尚無改善跡象。汽車產業展望亦類似。

MiR revenues of $44 million grew 43% on a pro forma basis or 84% on an as-reported basis. Recall, we acquired MiR in April of 2018. IA in total had a non-GAAP operating profit of 10% for the full year, a rate that we're modeling for 2020 as well.

MiR營收為4,400萬美元，按擬制基礎成長43%，按申報基礎成長84%。提醒一下，我們於2018年4月收購MiR。IA整體全年非GAAP營業利益率為10%，我們在2020年的模型中也採用相同水準。

Shifting to our midterm earnings model. Factoring in both recent history and our latest outlook, we've updated the high end of our $3.50 to $4 earnings target to $4.25 of non-GAAP EPS in 2022. We have growing confidence in the semi test end market drivers such as greater product complexity for performance, 5G sub-6 millimeter wave driving capacity needs in infrastructure, phones and IoT devices. We also expect a continuation of the growing performance trends in memory devices. This, along with some specific mobility and memory share gains and device unit growth, give us confidence to raise the Semi Test revenue growth rates from 3% to 5%, to 4% to 8% from our baseline 2019 revenue. At the same time, to reflect near-term industry conditions, IA's model growth rate has been reduced to a range of 20% to 35% off of our 2019 baseline revenue, as Mark noted. We expect above 20% growth in 2020.

接著談我們的中期獲利模型。綜合近期表現與最新展望，我們已將2022年非GAAP EPS目標區間（3.50至4美元）的上緣更新為4.25美元。我們對半導體測試終端市場的驅動因素更具信心，例如為提升效能而增加的產品複雜度、5G sub-6與毫米波在基礎設施、手機與IoT裝置上帶動的產能需求。我們也預期記憶體裝置的效能提升趨勢將延續。上述因素，加上在行動與記憶體領域的特定市占提升與裝置出貨量成長，使我們有信心將半導體測試（Semi Test）營收成長率自以2019年基準營收計的3%至5%，上調至4%至8%。同時，為反映短期產業狀況，如Mark所述，IA的模型成長率已下調為以2019年基準營收計的20%至35%區間。我們預期2020年成長將高於20%。

In 2019, we experienced a significant slowdown in sales growth tied to macro conditions noted earlier. However, our long-term outlook remains positive, and we'll continue to invest in scaling the business, specifically increasing our distributor capacity, sharpening our focus on marketing efforts for lead generation and closure, investing to expand our reach to major accounts and continuing to invest in software solutions needed to scale our portfolio. The net result of these updated growth assumptions is a greater revenue contribution in 2022 from our test portfolio versus the prior model.

2019年，我們因先前提到的總體環境因素而經歷銷售成長顯著放緩。然而，我們的長期展望仍然正向，並將持續投資以擴大業務規模，具體包括提升經銷商（distributor）產能、加強行銷以提升商機開發與成交、投資擴大對主要客戶的覆蓋，以及持續投資於擴展產品組合所需的軟體解決方案。在這些更新的成長假設下，淨結果是：相較於先前模型，2022年來自我們測試產品組合的營收貢獻更高。

Our gross margin target has increased roughly 1%, which drops down to operating profit, increasing that to 26% to 28% at the top end of our EPS range and increasing the top end of our EPS range to $4.25.

我們的毛利率目標上調約1%，並將反映到營業利益，使其在EPS區間上緣時提升至26%至28%，同時將EPS區間上緣提高至4.25美元。

Now to our outlook for Q1. Sales are expected to be between $670 million and $710 million, non-GAAP EPS range of $0.86 to $0.96 on 174 million diluted shares. The first quarter guidance exclude the amortization of acquired intangibles and noncash imputed interest on the convertible debt. First quarter gross margins are estimated to be between 57% and 58%, down slightly from the fourth quarter due to mix.

接著是我們對第一季（Q1）的展望。預期銷售額介於6.70億至7.10億美元，非GAAP EPS區間為0.86至0.96美元（以1.74億股稀釋後股數計）。第一季指引不包含收購無形資產攤銷，以及可轉換債務的非現金推定利息（noncash imputed interest）。第一季毛利率估計介於57%至58%，因產品組合影響，較第四季略降。

The first quarter OpEx, running at 30% to 31% of first quarter sales, is up about $6 million from the fourth quarter due to further IA distribution and product development investments, including the addition of AutoGuide, along with incremental test investments I'll discuss shortly. The non-GAAP operating profit at the midpoint of the first quarter guidance is 27%.

第一季營業費用（OpEx）約為第一季銷售額的30%至31%，較第四季增加約600萬美元，原因是進一步投入IA的通路與產品開發（包括新增AutoGuide），以及我稍後將說明的額外測試相關投資。以第一季指引中點計算，非GAAP營業利益率為27%。

Now turning to some color around the full year outlook to help your model. As Mark noted, we expect a strong first half similar to 2016 and 2017 when the first half revenues were 55% and 54% of the full year sales, respectively. Key drivers of the first half revenue include handset test demand, system-level testers being sold to enable key product ramp in our storage test segment and early ramping of LPDDR5 DRAM memory test capacity. Unlike 2016 and '17, based on our very early estimates, we expect roughly similar sales levels in Q2 as in Q1.

接著補充一些全年展望的細節，協助你建立模型。如Mark所述，我們預期上半年將表現強勁，類似2016與2017年，當時上半年營收分別占全年銷售的55%與54%。上半年營收的主要驅動因素包括手機測試需求、為支援儲存測試事業中關鍵產品放量而銷售的系統層級測試機，以及LPDDR5 DRAM記憶體測試產能的早期爬坡。不同於2016與2017年，根據我們非常初步的估計，我們預期第二季（Q2）銷售水準將與第一季（Q1）大致相當。

Regarding our OpEx plans for 2020. We expect our OpEx to grow 10% to 12% from 2019's $758 million. This is driven by investments across the business. In IA, we'll continue to invest to reinforce our competitive position across the sector, as noted earlier. In our test portfolio, we plan to increase our spending in engineering, sales and marketing, primarily in Semi Test. The engineering efforts will include memory and SOC investments to maintain our leadership position as well as invest in areas of the market where we believe there's opportunity for us to grow. Increased sales and marketing investments are driven by share gains, which require effort to convert and ramp customers on Teradyne's products and then provide ongoing support. Beyond 2020, we model test OpEx to have flat to GDP growth.

關於我們2020年的營業費用（OpEx）規劃。我們預期OpEx將較2019年的7.58億美元成長10%至12%。這主要由全公司各項投資所帶動。在IA方面，我們將如先前所述，持續投資以強化我們在整個產業中的競爭地位。在測試產品組合方面，我們計畫增加工程、銷售與行銷支出，主要集中於半導體測試（Semi Test）。工程投入將包含記憶體與SOC的投資，以維持我們的領導地位，同時也投資於我們認為有機會成長的市場領域。增加的銷售與行銷投資則由市占提升所驅動，因為這需要投入資源將客戶轉換並導入Teradyne產品、推動放量，並提供後續持續支援。在2020年之後，我們模型中測試相關OpEx將呈持平至隨GDP成長。

Capital expenditures in 2020 will increase above our normal run rate. In 2019, our CapEx was $135 million, used primarily for customer demonstration equipment, operations and engineering. In 2020, we've earmarked an incremental $40 million or so for real estate investments in locations where we plan to grow significantly over the next several years. We are buying land and developing it to eliminate lease costs and enable more cost-efficient spend profile over the mid- to long term. The projects will take 2 years to complete, with the majority of the spending this year. Our GAAP and non-GAAP tax rate for 2020 is estimated at 16%.

我們在2020年的資本支出將高於我們正常的執行水準。2019年，我們的資本支出為1.35億美元，主要用於客戶展示設備、營運與工程。2020年，我們另外預留約4,000萬美元，用於在未來數年計畫大幅成長之地點進行不動產投資。我們正在購地並進行開發，以消除租賃成本，並在中長期實現更具成本效率的支出結構。這些專案將需要2年完成，其中大部分支出將發生在今年。我們預估2020年的GAAP與非GAAP稅率為16%。

Shifting to capital allocation. We'll continue to balance strong cash position to support our operating investments and potential M&A with direct shareholder returns through dividends and share repurchases. Recall, we have a $460 million face value convertible bond that matures in 2023.

接著談資本配置。我們將持續在維持強勁現金部位（以支持營運投資與潛在併購）與透過股利及庫藏股回購直接回饋股東之間取得平衡。提醒一下，我們有一筆面額4.6億美元、於2023年到期的可轉換公司債。

Regarding direct returns. We will be increasing our dividend by 11% to $0.10 per quarter, which reflects our confidence in our operating level and growing markets we serve.

關於直接回饋。我們將把股利提高11%，至每季每股0.10美元，這反映了我們對營運水準以及所服務市場成長的信心。

With regards to share repurchases. We canceled the unused portion of the prior program and replaced it with a $1 billion share repurchase program. We plan a minimum of $250 million of share repurchase in 2020. The program does not have a fixed end date and as in the past, there's a programmatic and opportunistic component. Recall, in 2018 and 2019, we spent approximately $1.3 billion in share buybacks driven by 2017 tax reform, which enabled offshore cash to be repatriated efficiently. Our 2020 target represents our getting back to a more normal level of share repurchases.

至於股票回購。我們取消了先前計畫中未使用的部分，並以一項10億美元的股票回購計畫取而代之。我們計畫在2020年至少回購2.5億美元的股票。該計畫沒有固定的結束日期，且如同過去一樣，包含例行性與機會性兩個部分。提醒一下，2018年與2019年，我們約投入13億美元進行股票回購，主要受2017年稅改驅動，使海外現金得以更有效率地匯回。我們2020年的目標代表我們回到較為正常的股票回購水準。

In summary, we closed out 2019 very strong and entered 2020 with good momentum powered by our strong test portfolio. Our updated capital allocation plan and earnings model reflects our confidence in Test and Industrial Automation while acknowledging the short-term impacts of the global slowdown in industrial spending. We'll continue to invest in R&D, distribution and internal capabilities to improve our competitive position and drive profitable growth across the business. While we can't predict what lies ahead for the full year, we have the products, the team and a proven flexible business model that can efficiently scale demand during a fluctuating time period and the strategy to thrive in the new year.

總結來說，我們在2019年以非常強勁的表現收官，並在強大的測試產品組合帶動下，以良好動能進入2020年。我們更新後的資本配置計畫與獲利模型，反映了我們對測試與工業自動化的信心，同時也承認全球工業支出放緩所帶來的短期影響。我們將持續投資於研發、通路與內部能力，以提升競爭地位，並推動全公司獲利性成長。雖然我們無法預測全年將會發生什麼，但我們擁有產品、團隊以及經驗證的彈性商業模式，能在需求波動期間有效率地擴縮，並具備在新年度茁壯成長的策略。

With that, I'll turn things back to Andy.

接下來，我把時間交回給Andy。

Thanks, Sanjay. And Sherry, we'd now like to take some questions. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝你，Sanjay。Sherry，我們現在想開始回答一些問題。(接線員指示)

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Vivek Arya with Bank of America.

(接線員指示) 我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行（Bank of America）的Vivek Arya。

For the first one, in the press release, you called out Huawei and HiSilicon as significant customers. I'm wondering how big were they directly or indirectly in 2019 and if you have a number for 2018 as well. And do you have a sense for how much of that related capacity is being utilized versus any extraneous effects due to tariff or trade or other issues?

第一個問題，在新聞稿中，你們特別提到華為與海思（HiSilicon）是重要客戶。我想了解他們在2019年直接或間接的占比有多大，以及你們是否也有2018年的數字。另外，你們是否能判斷與其相關的產能利用率有多少是在被使用中，或是否因關稅、貿易或其他議題而出現任何額外影響？

Yes. We're not going to give specific numbers for any specific customer. But what I will say is that, certainly, they are a significant customer of Teradyne, and utilization is 100-plus-percent. There's strong demand. There was demand all through the year, utilization high. And at this point, that situation continues, with the exception of 5G infrastructure, which represents a subset of the demand being weaker now than it was running in the second half of last year.

是的。我們不會針對任何特定客戶提供具體數字。但我可以說的是，他們確實是Teradyne的重要客戶，而且產能利用率在100%以上。需求非常強勁。全年都有需求，利用率很高。目前這種情況仍在持續，唯一的例外是5G基礎建設，這只占需求的一部分，而其需求目前比去年下半年運行時更弱。

All right. And for my follow-up, on the 5G side, you maintained the $200 million-or-so contribution or the market size for last year. And I think, in the past, you had mentioned the $300 million to $400 million opportunity. How do you see your share playing out? Which areas you think you are stronger versus your competitor?

好的。那我的追問是，在5G方面，你們維持去年約2億美元的貢獻或市場規模。而我記得過去你們曾提到3億到4億美元的機會。你們如何看待市占率的發展？你們認為相較競爭對手，哪些領域你們更強？

Yes, good question. So that $200 million number for 2019 was predominantly infrastructure related. And I think our share there was probably 70-plus-percent. As we enter 2020, there will be a shift towards handsets, and infrastructure will come down a bit. And I'd say, our share as a consequence of that will probably be somewhere between that 50% to 75% -- 50% to 70% range in that kind of a mix.

是的，問得好。2019年的那個2億美元數字主要與基礎建設相關。我認為我們在那裡的市占率可能在70%以上。進入2020年後，需求將轉向手機端，而基礎建設會稍微下滑。因此我會說，因為這樣的組合變化，我們的市占率可能會落在50%到75%之間——大約在50%到70%的區間，取決於那樣的組合。

But longer term, as more millimeter wave comes online, again, we're talking probably post 2020, that's when the total market should grow to that $400 million-ish range for Semi Test. And then on top of that, in LitePoint, there's probably -- we've been talking about $100 million-ish adder for 5G handset test. But the way we see it now, it's likely that could be a bit higher. That may peak at around $150 million or so. So that's how it progresses out through the next few years.

但從長期來看，隨著更多毫米波上線——我們大概是在談2020年之後——那時半導體測試（Semi Test）的整體市場應該會成長到約4億美元的規模。此外，在LitePoint方面，我們一直在談5G手機測試大約再增加1億美元左右。但以我們目前的看法，這個數字可能會略高一些。它的高峰可能在約1.5億美元左右。這就是未來幾年的發展路徑。

Our next question comes from John Pitzer with Crédit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸（Crédit Suisse）的John Pitzer。

Mark, I'm just kind of curious, your view of calendar year '20 half-on-half being 55-45. To what extent is that just lack of visibility into the second half and conservatism versus actually having visibility that the second half is going to be down? And I guess help me understand why '16, '17 is the right analogy year to compare calendar year '20. And as you answer the question, if we're going through a pause in 5G infrastructure currently, when's the expectation for that to come back?

Mark，我有點好奇，你對2020年曆年上下半年55-45的看法。這在多大程度上只是因為對下半年能見度不足而採取保守假設，而不是你們其實已經看得到下半年會下滑？另外，請幫我理解為什麼2016、2017是拿來類比2020年曆年的合適年份。以及在回答時，如果我們目前正經歷5G基礎建設的暫停，預期何時會回來？

Yes, that's a good question. So I'd just like to point out that we have very little visibility into the second half. So the 55-45 split is purely based on a historical model or precedent where in 2016 and 2017, we had significant mobility handset test tooling in the first half, and we've simply looked at that and said, everything else being equal, let's assume the year follows that pattern. But we don't have any data points that I would say are strong on that.

是的，這是個好問題。我想先指出，我們對下半年的能見度非常有限。因此55-45的分配純粹是基於歷史模型或先例：在2016年與2017年，我們在上半年有大量行動裝置手機測試的治具/設備投入，我們只是回頭看那段歷史並說，在其他條件相同下，就假設今年也會遵循那樣的模式。但我們沒有我認為足夠有力的數據點來支持這個分配。

And then with infrastructure, we expect -- because most of the buildout in infrastructure was concentrated in China last year, it ran very hot. It's in a pause right now. But there's plenty of geographies that still need to build out. So that has to come back at some point. We don't think it's in the first half of the year where we do have visibility, but it could be in the second half of the year or early next year.

至於基礎建設方面，我們預期——因為去年基礎建設的建置大多集中在中國，當時非常火熱。目前正處於暫停狀態。但仍有許多地區尚需建置。因此它在某個時間點必須會回來。我們不認為會在我們目前較有能見度的上半年回來，但可能在下半年或明年初。

That's helpful. And maybe for my follow-on, to kind of add on to Vivek's first question, I understand the desire not to talk about absolute levels for a specific customer. But I'm kind of curious, just relative to some of the concerns investors had that there might be a change in the de minimis rule from 25% to 10%, would that change, as you understand it, impact your business to Huawei? Or how should we think about that in the investment community?

這很有幫助。那我再追問一下，延續Vivek的第一個問題，我理解你們不想談特定客戶的絕對金額。但我有點好奇，針對投資人擔心「微量豁免（de minimis）規則」可能從25%改為10%這件事，依你們的理解，這樣的變更是否會影響你們對華為的業務？或者投資社群應該如何看待這件事？

Yes, it's Sanjay. So the first thing is, is that -- I'll just say that Teradyne is going to be compliant with whatever the regulations are. And then the revenue impact, I'd say, is a little bit hard to call. Let me give you some color around there. Depending on -- there could be a lot of conjecture about what the rules could be and whatever they are. I think that if there's -- our inability to ship to Huawei for whatever reason, you have to consider -- if you consider the end market to be the end market, we believe that there would be a shift in -- to other providers. Now that would have a time gap as that process takes place. But I think it's very hard, a, we don't actually understand -- know what the regulations are going to be; and then b, the end market impact, I think, over the midterm would kind of work itself out. But there would be this fluctuation in the short term.

是的，我是 Sanjay。所以第一點是——我先說，Teradyne 會遵循不論是什麼樣的法規要求。至於營收影響，我會說有點難以判斷。我補充一些背景說明。視情況而定——對規則可能會是什麼、以及最終會是什麼樣，外界可能會有很多推測。我認為如果——我們因任何原因無法出貨給華為，你必須考量——如果把終端市場視為終端市場，我們相信需求會轉移——轉向其他供應商。當然，這個轉移過程會有時間落差。但我認為這很難判斷：a，我們其實還不清楚——也不知道法規會變成什麼；以及 b，終端市場的影響，我認為在中期會逐步自行消化。但短期內會出現一些波動。

Our next question comes from Timothy Arcuri with UBS.

我們下一個問題來自 UBS 的 Timothy Arcuri。

The first question, Mark, I just -- I'm going back to your comment that the $200 million extra SOC TAM that came from 5G this year, your share was about 70%. But total SOC share, if I take a $3.3 billion market this year, you actually lost like 300 basis points worth of share for the year. So why would that be if you captured sort of an abnormally high portion of that incremental 5G?

第一個問題，Mark，我只是——回到你提到今年因 5G 帶來額外 2 億美元的 SOC TAM，你們的市占大約是 70%。但如果我以今年 33 億美元的 SOC 市場來看，你們全年其實大概少了 300 個基點的市占。所以如果你們抓到了那筆增量 5G 中異常高的比例，為什麼會是這樣？

Yes. So there's lots going on under the covers in SOC test. So the 5G bump was one component of it, but analog and automotive were at a very low level, which is another place where we have very high share. So those 2, you might say, sort of almost negated each other in terms of share -- net share gain. Then the other effect going on is the -- there's a segment of the SOC test market, it's probably the only segment we don't serve, which is LCD driver -- display driver, that market has grown quite dramatically in 2019. It added, I think, about $100 million to $150 million of market. It's pretty much all going to Advantest, and that kind of makes up the difference in the calculation.

是的。所以在 SOC 測試裡，檯面下其實有很多事情同時在發生。5G 的拉升只是其中一個組成，但類比與車用的水準非常低，而那也是我們市占非常高的另一個領域。所以這兩者你可以說，在市占——淨市占增長方面，幾乎互相抵消。另外一個影響是——SOC 測試市場裡有一個區塊，可能也是唯一我們沒有服務的區塊，就是 LCD driver——顯示驅動；那個市場在 2019 年成長相當顯著。我想它大概增加了 1 億到 1.5 億美元的市場規模。幾乎全部都流向 Advantest，而這大致就補上了計算上的差距。

Okay. Got it. And then I guess just a follow-up question on the topic around export control. So if I take a flat June, which you're sort of implying is going to be flat, and then if I assume that the year sort of plays out that the first half is 55% and the back half is 45%, that sort of says that you're going to be at around 2.5 for the year. Does that guidance -- what does that assume in terms of export control rule changes? Because if the threshold goes to 10% and they remove the sensitive content requirement, does that assume that you'll still be able to ship to Huawei? Or does that assume that there will be some impact?

好的。了解。接著我想就出口管制這個主題追問一下。如果我假設 6 月持平——你們某種程度上暗示會持平——然後再假設全年走勢大致是上半年 55%、下半年 45%，那樣算起來你們全年大概會在 25 億左右。那這個指引——在出口管制規則變更方面，是做了什麼假設？因為如果門檻降到 10%，並且移除敏感內容的要求，這是否假設你們仍然能出貨給華為？還是說這假設會有一些影響？

Yes. I think with what we believe is being contemplated at the moment, and again, this is still in daily discussions obviously in the Commerce Department and the Department of Defense and everything else, that it would not have a significant impact to our plans for 2020. But what Sanjay said is true, is that let's assume for a minute that something more draconian than we expect happens with restrictions. The demand in the market won't change. So the supply will shift to other suppliers, and we're well positioned at the likely other suppliers that will shift to, so it's simply a movement of one place to another.

是的。以我們目前理解正在被考量的方向來看——而且再次強調，這顯然仍在商務部、國防部以及其他單位每日討論中——它不會對我們 2020 年的計畫造成重大影響。但 Sanjay 說得沒錯：假設先暫時想像一下，限制措施出現比我們預期更嚴厲的情況。市場需求不會改變。因此供給會轉移到其他供應商，而我們在那些最可能承接轉移的供應商端也有很好的布局，所以本質上只是從一個地方移到另一個地方。

Our next question comes from Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

我們下一個問題來自 Goldman Sachs 的 Toshiya Hari。

Mark, you guys lowered your long-term growth assumptions around the IA business from 30% to 40%, to 20% to 35%. I appreciate the near-term environment in Europe in automotive from an end demand standpoint remains pretty weak. But why the change? Have you sensed any change to the competitive landscape or how you think about the economics around the adoption of cobots? Or what's changed there?

Mark，你們把 IA 業務的長期成長假設從 30% 到 40%，下修到 20% 到 35%。我理解從終端需求角度來看，歐洲車用的短期環境仍然相當疲弱。但為什麼要改？你們是否感受到競爭態勢有任何變化，或是你們對協作機器人（cobots）導入的經濟性看法有改變？或是到底改變了什麼？

Yes. It's no competitive and no long-term change. It's simply math, meaning we've got another -- to get to that 2022 year, we've got 3 years to get there. We think 2020 is going to be better than '19 in terms of growth but not in that 30% to 40% range that would make that viable. So we think we're going to, again, move back north on growth rates this year. We'll be north of 20% for the group, and we would expect subsequent years to improve beyond that. But when you average it out over 3 years, that's kind of the range we think we'll be in. Longer term, nothing's changed.

是的。沒有競爭方面的變化，也沒有長期面的改變。純粹是數學問題，也就是說——要到 2022 年那個目標年，我們還有 3 年時間。我們認為 2020 年的成長會比 2019 年好，但不會達到 30% 到 40% 那種能讓原先假設成立的區間。所以我們認為今年成長率會再次往上走。整個事業群會高於 20%，而我們也預期後續年度會在此基礎上進一步改善。但把 3 年平均起來看，大概就是我們認為會落在的區間。更長期來看，沒有任何改變。

Got it. And then as a follow-up, I had a question on memory test. Can you confirm what your market share was in 2019 in NAND and DRAM relative to 2018? And then for the TAM for 2020, I think you guys are thinking 15-ish-percent growth on a year-over-year basis. That seems a little conservative given what we're seeing in terms of the memory market. What's kind of pulling that down, if you will?

了解。接著追問一下，我有一個關於記憶體測試的問題。你能否確認你們 2019 年在 NAND 與 DRAM 的市占，相較於 2018 年是多少？另外，對於 2020 年的 TAM，我想你們的看法大概是年增約 15% 左右。以我們看到的記憶體市場狀況來看，這似乎有點保守。是什麼因素在拉低這個預估呢？

Well, let's see. So first of all, the share in 2018, we're roughly 30% share, and last year, we think we'll be around 43-ish-percent share, 43%. Looking to 2020 market, we're thinking $700 million roughly would be the market. We've said the long-term average should be about $750 million. I wouldn't be surprised if it was a bit higher, but it's -- again, at this point, it's hard to forecast.

嗯，我看看。首先，2018 年的市占我們大約是 30%，而去年我們認為大概會在 43% 左右，43%。展望 2020 年的市場，我們認為市場規模大約會是 7 億美元。我們也說過長期平均應該大約是 7.5 億美元。如果它稍微更高我也不意外，但——同樣地，就目前而言很難預測。

Now in terms of our share in 2020, the success we had -- all last year, we talked about this target of cracking in the final wedge of the memory test market, DRAM final test that we didn't participate in. And that was a year-long project that finally came to fruition in December. So that sets us up going into 2020 to serve all 4 segments of the market. China will continue to be pretty aggressive. So that's a balloon. And I think our share -- as I think in the last call, I said, expect our share to fall back into the high-30s, 35% to 40% range, as DRAM snaps back in 2020. But now that we're playing in that market, we think where -- share is going to stay up in that 40% range in 2020.

至於我們 2020 年的市占，我們去年一整年談到這個目標：要打入記憶體測試市場最後一塊楔子——也就是我們先前沒有參與的 DRAM 最終測試（final test）。那是一個歷時一年的專案，終於在 12 月開花結果。因此這讓我們在進入 2020 年時，能夠服務市場的全部 4 個區塊。中國將會持續相當積極。所以那會是一個膨脹的氣球。我認為我們的市占——就像我在上一通電話會議說的，隨著 2020 年 DRAM 回溫，預期我們的市占會回落到 30% 後段，也就是 35% 到 40% 的區間。但現在我們已經在那個市場裡了，我們認為——市占在 2020 年會維持在 40% 左右的水準。

Our next question comes from Atif Malik with Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗（Citi）的 Atif Malik。

Congratulations on strong results and guide. And also good job in winning the LPDDR5 design wins at the Korean memory makers. Mark, my first question is with respect to your expectations on the industrial auto demand not recovering this year, can you remind us how much is that semiconductor test demand down from the prior peak? And then as my follow-up, Sanjay, can you comment on the profitability of your memory test business relative to your overall semiconductor test business?

恭喜你們交出強勁的業績與指引。另外也恭喜你們在韓國記憶體製造商那邊拿下 LPDDR5 的設計導入（design wins）。Mark，我的第一個問題是，關於你們預期工業與車用需求今年不會復甦，能否提醒我們：相較於先前的高峰，那塊半導體測試需求下滑了多少？接著追問，Sanjay，你能否評論一下你們記憶體測試業務的獲利能力，相對於整體半導體測試業務的情況？

I'm sorry, Atif, I didn't get your first question. Could you just ask it again, please?

抱歉，Atif，我沒有聽清楚你的第一個問題。你可以再問一次嗎？

Yes. Mark, what I'm asking is how far is your industrial and auto test business down from the prior peak. And then for Sanjay, the memory profitability.

好的。Mark，我想問的是：你們的工業與車用測試業務，相較於先前的高峰下滑了多少？然後 Sanjay 的部分是記憶體獲利能力。

Got it. Thank you. Yes. So automotive and analog tends to peak at around $500 million or so of the market, $500 million to $550 million. Last year, we expect that it was somewhere in the $300 million to $325 million range. So it's down by about $200 million.

了解。謝謝。是的。所以車用與類比（analog）市場通常在大約 5 億美元左右見頂，大概是 5 億到 5.5 億美元。去年，我們預期大約落在 3 億到 3.25 億美元的區間。所以大約下滑了 2 億美元。

And from the memory profitability standpoint, we see the margins and the profitability similar to the SOC market.

就記憶體獲利能力而言，我們看到其毛利率與獲利水準與 SoC 市場相近。

Our next question comes from C.J. Muse with Evercore.

下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 C.J. Muse。

Curious on your new test outlook of 6% growth at the midpoint versus your prior view of 4%, and that's off of a higher base in '19. How much of that outlook is based on just what you're seeing overall testing as in complexity versus some of the share gains on the gaming console, DDR5, et cetera?

我想了解你們新的測試市場展望：中位數成長 6%，相較於先前看法的 4%，而且這是建立在 2019 年較高基期之上。這個展望有多少是基於你們看到整體測試因複雜度提升而成長， versus 來自遊戲主機、DDR5 等的市占提升？

Yes, I think that's -- it's Sanjay here. I think that you can view that as we see over the midterm growth really driven by, as you said, complexity in end devices, 5G, kind of both sub-6 and millimeter wave as well as share gains. So I'd say it's more like 30% tied to market and 70% tied to share gains roughly over the midterm.

是的，我想那個——我是 Sanjay。我認為你可以把中期成長視為主要由你提到的終端裝置複雜度、5G（包含 sub-6 與毫米波）以及市占提升所驅動。所以我會說，中期大約 30% 與市場本身相關、約 70% 與市占提升相關。

Very helpful. And then on the IA side, MiR clearly helped, but UR grew 23% sequentially on its own. Curious what signal that sends to you. I mean, how much of that was programmatic as opposed to perhaps an early indication of cyclical recovery on the manufacturing side?

很有幫助。接著在 IA 這邊，MiR 顯然有幫助，但 UR 即使不含 MiR 也季增 23%。想請教這對你們而言釋放了什麼訊號。我的意思是，其中有多少是專案性（programmatic）的因素，而不是製造業端景氣循環提早復甦的跡象？

Well, I think on the UR front zone as well as MiR, seasonally, Q4 is a generally high quarter if you look back over time. So that's encouraging. And it was actually one of the drivers of us being higher than our guidance range. However, as we look into the first half, we are seeing that seasonal pattern come down from an IA perspective. And I think it's really early innings to call a recovery in those -- in industrials and automotive at this point from our standpoint.

我想就 UR 以及 MiR 而言，從季節性來看，如果回顧過去，第四季通常是相對較高的一季。所以這是令人鼓舞的。而且這其實也是我們表現高於指引區間的原因之一。不過，當我們看向上半年，從 IA 的角度來看，我們確實看到這種季節性走勢回落。而以我們的立場來看，現在要判定工業與車用出現復甦還為時過早。

So when you're thinking about growing that business 20-plus-percent in 2020, is that really an indication of kind of the programs that you see for MiR? Or what's the underlying assumption for UR?

所以當你們在思考 2020 年讓那個業務成長 20% 以上時，這主要是反映你們看到 MiR 的一些專案嗎？或者 UR 的底層假設是什麼？

Yes. So we see MiR and UR both contributing obviously to the 20-plus-percent growth that Mark articulated. And we are investing in, as I said, growing in distribution. As you know, MiR is coming from -- is a little bit later in years as coming from a smaller base. But we see both contributing quite significantly to that 20-plus-percent growth.

是的。所以我們看到 MiR 與 UR 都會對 Mark 所提到的 20% 以上成長做出貢獻。而且我們正在投資——如我所說——擴大通路布局。如你所知，MiR 是——因為基期較小，所以在後續年度的貢獻會稍微晚一些顯現。但我們認為兩者都會對那個 20% 以上的成長做出相當顯著的貢獻。

And C.J., I'd just -- I would just add on that, that the UR is -- has higher exposure to automotive and sort of the general manufacturing issues that we're seeing in the market. But the fact that we did see the strong sequential performance that you alluded to, we did see a little bit of year-over-year gain, we introduced a new product last year with the 16-kilogram payload version that's just starting to ramp and we're just now -- actually, in April, going to be rolling out the bin picking solution in North America. So new products, bottoming of the headwinds in the manufacturing sector in Europe and North America are strong, strong indicators for us.

另外，C.J.，我再補充一下：UR 對車用以及我們在市場上看到的一般製造業問題的曝險更高。但正如你提到的，我們確實看到強勁的季比表現，也看到一些年比的成長；我們去年推出了一款新產品——16 公斤負載版本——目前才剛開始放量；而且我們現在——其實在 4 月——將在北美推出 bin picking 解決方案。所以，新產品，以及歐洲與北美製造業部門逆風觸底，對我們而言都是非常、非常強的指標。

The other thing is that last year, we saw really good performance in China in terms of growth. We grew -- I think it was 40% or so in China last year where those headwinds were absent. So UR, in a very competitive region, and still showing that kind of lens. So we're really confident with the new products and the sort of diminishing headwinds.

另外一點是，去年我們在中國的成長表現非常好。我們在中國去年成長——我想大約是 40% 左右——在那裡並沒有那些逆風。所以 UR 在一個競爭非常激烈的區域，仍然展現出那樣的動能。因此，對於新產品以及逆風逐步減弱，我們非常有信心。

Our next question comes from Mehdi Hosseini with SIG.

下一個問題來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

I want to take more of a broader outlook. If I just look at your commentary for 2020, the 55-45 mix, it seems to me that on the earnings side, you would come in at or slightly above the midpoint of your longer-term target. And I'm also under the impression that millimeter wave could be a big TAM for SOC, but that's most likely a 2022 catalyst. So given this kind of a thought process, could we see some fluctuation in annualized earning as you think about the longer term of maybe a best case $4.25? I'm just trying to better understand the dynamics of different parts of the company, especially with the change of outlook on IA and how SOC market is going to play out.

我想從更宏觀的角度來看。如果我看你們對 2020 年的評論，55-45 的組合，看起來在獲利面，你們會落在或略高於你們長期目標的中位數。我也認為毫米波可能會是 SoC 的一個很大的 TAM，但那很可能是 2022 年的催化劑。所以基於這樣的思路，當你們思考更長期、也許最佳情境是 4.25 美元時，我們是否可能看到年化獲利出現一些波動？我只是想更好地理解公司不同部分的動態，特別是在 IA 展望改變，以及 SoC 市場將如何發展的情況下。

Yes, we've been blessed with a pretty stable, nonvolatile test market here for quite some number of years. And so it's certainly possible on our way to $4.25 and beyond, we could see a drop-down. We haven't seen that -- our EPS have been monotonically growing here for quite some time. So there's still likely volatility. It doesn't seem imminent. So the drivers here, especially around 5G, are going to be pretty big balloons. But at the same time, you and I both know, being around for as long as we've been in this industry, something like a 20% correction can occur. That in no way changes the fundamentals of where 5-nanometer, 3-nanometer are going to take us with complexity and what these device -- the 5G transceivers and antennas and such that are going into their phones over the next few years are going to bring to the test world. So I'm not -- we don't plan and try to -- we're on a trend line projection, as you know, and that's what we believe.

是的，我們在這裡的測試市場多年來相當穩定、波動不大，算是很有福氣。因此，在我們邁向 4.25 美元甚至更高的過程中，確實有可能會出現回落。我們已經有相當長一段時間看到 EPS 持續單調成長。所以仍然可能存在波動。但看起來並非迫在眉睫。因此，這裡的驅動因素，特別是圍繞 5G 的部分，會是相當大的成長氣球。但同時，你我都知道，既然我們在這個產業待了這麼久，像 20% 的修正是可能發生的。但那完全不會改變基本面：5 奈米、3 奈米將如何透過複雜度帶動我們前進，以及未來幾年 5G 收發器、天線等導入手機後，將為測試領域帶來什麼。所以我不——我們不會去規劃並試圖——如你所知，我們是依照趨勢線做預測，而那就是我們所相信的。

Just as a follow-up, I'm just thinking that for millimeter wave, there will be some changes to the base station to the networking. And that would have to happen before there will be an SOC upgrade cycle. And the base station, TAM is like $200 million for test and AT is $400 million. How do you see the impact of millimeter wave on a networking versus the phone itself given the kind of picture that I just laid out?

再追問一下，我在想，對於毫米波而言，從基地台到網路端會有一些變化。而在出現 SoC 升級週期之前，這些變化必須先發生。而基地台的測試 TAM 大約是 2 億美元，AT 大約是 4 億美元。基於我剛才描述的情境，你們如何看待毫米波對網路端相對於手機本身的影響？

Yes. So I think that from a test intensity point of view, handsets will matter more. So the thing that made last year incredible in terms of infrastructure was the concentration in a very short period of time. So to roll out China sub-6 to your low band, to put in the infrastructure to do that, a tremendous amount of capacity was built out in 1 year to make that happen. Millimeter wave is going to be spread over many years. I don't think that it's going -- it will be marginally more test intensive than -- at the base station level than sub-6G. But it's not going to have the same sort of $150 million, $200 million bump in the TAM that we saw last year.

是的。所以我認為，從測試強度的角度來看，手機端會更重要。所以去年在基礎建設方面之所以令人驚訝，是因為在非常短的時間內高度集中。因此，要在你的低頻段部署中國 sub-6，並建置相應的基礎設施，在 1 年內就擴建了大量產能來促成這件事。毫米波將會分散在很多年內推進。我不認為它會——在基地台層級，相較於 sub-6G，測試強度只會略高一些。但它不會像我們去年看到的那樣，讓 TAM 出現 1.5 億美元、2 億美元的同等幅度躍升。

On the other hand, the handset side of this is where the real money will be for both LitePoint and Semi Test. And there's going to be a tipping point that we need to reach, specifically in the U.S., on deployment of millimeter wave base stations to shift, let's say, half the domestic supply of handsets to millimeter wave capable. And we just still think that's probably 2021 or 2022. It may -- we're a little more optimistic that it's coming sooner on millimeter wave. But if we go back to that $400 million bump to the SOC market, if you're thinking about 2022, it's probably $300 million plus of that is going to be handset related.

另一方面，這件事在手機端才是 LitePoint 和半導體測試（Semi Test）真正賺錢的地方。而且我們需要達到一個臨界點，特別是在美國，必須在毫米波基地台的部署上達到一定程度，才能把國內手機供應中大約一半轉向具備毫米波能力。而我們仍然認為那大概會是 2021 或 2022 年。也許——我們對毫米波更樂觀一些，覺得它會更早到來。但如果回到 SOC 市場增加 4 億美元的那個增量來看，若你把時間點放在 2022 年，其中大概有 3 億美元以上會與手機相關。

Our next question comes from Krish Sankar with Cowen and Co.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen and Co. 的 Krish Sankar。

I had 2 of them. First of all, Mark, thanks for the color on millimeter wave. Do you think that when you look at millimeter wave, now that you have a dual opportunity both on the SOC test side as well as LitePoint side, do you think they happen in tandem? Or does LitePoint lead or lag the AT business? And then I had a follow-up on cobots.

我有兩個問題。首先，Mark，謝謝你對毫米波的補充說明。你認為當你看毫米波時，現在你在 SOC 測試端以及 LitePoint 端都有雙重機會，你覺得它們會同步發生嗎？還是 LitePoint 會領先或落後 AT 業務？然後我還有一個關於協作機器人（cobots）的追問。

Yes. Sanjay. I think they come out in similar opportunities. I think what you're seeing right now in millimeter wave on the SOC test perspective is a lot of engineering work and testers associated with that. And then you do have the LitePoint end device tester in parallel for what millimeter wave devices that are out there. And then when the -- and as we say, it comes -- as we've said before, we believe it comes in waves. And arguably 2021 and 2022, I think you'll see both of them come up. Obviously, the chip guys on the SOC test will be slightly ahead, but I think they'll mainly come some early time.

是的。Sanjay。我認為它們會以相近的機會出現。我想你現在在毫米波的 SOC 測試面向看到的是大量的工程工作，以及與之相關的測試機。同時，你也有 LitePoint 的終端裝置測試機，並行用於市面上已有的毫米波裝置。然後當——而且如我們所說，它會——如我們之前所說，我們相信它會一波一波地到來。可以說在 2021 和 2022 年，我認為你會看到兩者都開始上升。顯然，在 SOC 測試方面晶片廠會稍微領先一些，但我認為它們主要會在較早的時間點陸續出現。

One more thing about LitePoint that we haven't mentioned that -- LitePoint's traditional strength has been WiFi connectivity test. And there's a lot going on in the next few years in WiFi. That's really encouraging to us. So finally, 802.11ax, or what's now been rebranded WiFi 6, is rolling out to phones. That's going to propel our connectivity business. Then we're going to open up the 7 gigahertz -- 6 to 7 gigahertz band for WiFi. That's another new need to retool the tester installed base for that frequency band. And then we're -- and the industry is working on this new 802.11be standard that is 16x16 MIMO. It's 360 megahertz of channel bandwidth, once again requiring new test capacity. So unlike the past 4 years where connectivity has been kind of dormant, when we look over the next 4 years, connectivity is also going to see significant retooling, we think.

關於 LitePoint 還有一點我們沒提到——LitePoint 傳統上的強項一直是 WiFi 連線測試。而未來幾年 WiFi 會有很多進展。這讓我們非常振奮。所以，終於，802.11ax（現在重新品牌為 WiFi 6）正在導入手機。這將推動我們的連線業務。接著我們將開放 7 GHz——也就是 6 到 7 GHz 頻段供 WiFi 使用。這又會帶來新的需求，需要針對該頻段重新整備既有測試機裝機基礎。然後我們——以及整個產業——正在推進新的 802.11be 標準，採用 16x16 MIMO。它有 360 MHz 的通道頻寬，再次需要新的測試產能。所以不同於過去 4 年連線業務相對沉寂，當我們看未來 4 年時，我們認為連線領域也將出現顯著的重新整備需求。

Got it. That's very helpful. And then I just had a follow-up on the cobots side. A 2-part question. Where are we on the installation time reduction for cobots? I think this used to be 4 to 6 weeks, but you guys are trying to reduce it. And also, do you have any update on the partnership you're doing with -- on the vision side for cobots?

了解。這非常有幫助。然後我還有一個關於協作機器人（cobots）的追問。這是一個兩部分的問題。我們在縮短 cobots 安裝時間方面進展到哪裡了？我記得以前是 4 到 6 週，但你們正在嘗試縮短。另外，關於你們在 cobots 視覺端所做的合作夥伴關係，有沒有任何更新？

I think on the deployment time, yes, we -- that's -- I alluded earlier to where we're investing. We continue to invest -- we don't have specific metrics around that, but we continue to see improvement and improvement in the initial deployment as well as the follow-on deployments at an existing customer.

我想在部署時間方面，是的，我們——那——我先前提到過我們投資的方向。我們持續投資——我們沒有針對那點的具體指標，但我們持續看到改善、再改善，不論是在初次部署，或是在既有客戶的後續部署上。

And then vision?

那視覺呢？

And the second question was tied to...

第二個問題是關於……

Vision partnerships.

視覺合作夥伴。

Vision partnerships. I think the answer is we have a lot UR+ partners that are suppliers.

視覺合作夥伴。我想答案是，我們有很多 UR+ 合作夥伴是供應商。

Yes. I think we're fielding a bin picking solution that has a vision system embedded in it that we will kind of be a reseller for. But there's a wide variety of partners already in our UR+ ecosystem that are natively embedded in our operating system. So all of that is sort of business as usual. No real new trends there.

是的。我想我們正在推出一個料箱取料（bin picking）解決方案，裡面內建視覺系統，而我們某種程度上會作為其轉售商。但在我們的 UR+ 生態系中，已經有非常多合作夥伴的方案原生整合在我們的作業系統裡。所以這些基本上都算是照常運作。那裡沒有什麼真正的新趨勢。

Our next question comes from Richard Eastman with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Baird 的 Richard Eastman。

Just a quick question around the Industrial Automation business in general. How did that -- how did their P&L or gross margin, I think, finished the year? And then also, I think you referenced an op profit contribution, the contribution margin there of 10%, and that was the expectation going forward into '20 as well. So I'm curious, is there a kicked up investment there below the gross margin line? Has the gross margin line kind of held around 60% there?

關於工業自動化（Industrial Automation）業務整體，我有個簡短問題。它——它的損益表（P&L）或毛利率，我想，年末表現如何？另外，我記得你提到 IA 的營業利益貢獻——那裡的貢獻毛利為 10%，而這也是往後進入 20 年的預期。所以我想了解的是，毛利線以下是否有加大投資？毛利率是否大致維持在 60% 左右？

Yes. This is Sanjay. So I think the gross margin is roughly as you'd expect it to be. There's been no degradation at all. And I did comment that our operating profit in IA in general is 10%. You should expect that next year. I think the -- when I think about the Industrial Automation business and our strategy towards it, fundamentally, as we have significant growth, we plan on investing to improve our competitive position. We believe in this nascent market, and our outlook in the long term, as Mark said earlier, is unchanged.

是的。我是 Sanjay。所以我認為毛利率大致如你所預期。完全沒有惡化。而我也提到，我們 IA 整體的營業利益大約是 10%。你明年也應該預期如此。我想——當我思考工業自動化業務以及我們對它的策略時，基本上，隨著我們有顯著成長，我們計畫投資以提升競爭地位。我們看好這個新興市場，而我們對長期的展望——如 Mark 先前所說——並未改變。

I think when -- you should start thinking about it, when you expect -- or when we expect growth in single digits, that's when you'd expect us to be at or above kind of our model profit or, let's say, 20% operating profit plus as growth tends to slow. But as we see the market and as we believe that we're going to grow significant double digits, and into the future, we're going to continue to invest to drive the top line and then when we see the growth taper off, you'd expect our operating profit to improve.

我想當——你應該開始這樣思考：當你預期——或當我們預期成長落在個位數時，那時你會預期我們達到或高於我們模型中的利潤水準，或者說，隨著成長趨緩，營業利益率達到 20% 以上。但當我們看到市場，並且相信我們將維持顯著的雙位數成長、且延續到未來時，我們會持續投資以推動營收成長；然後當我們看到成長開始趨緩時，你就會預期我們的營業利益會改善。

So in the 50% that's OpEx there, is that kicked up on the R&D side? Or is this still kind of go-to-market support cost and expansion of the distribution base? Or where do you pull that 50% out to drop the contribution margin of 10%? Because it had been riding 15% to 20%.

所以在那 50% 的營運費用（OpEx）裡，是在研發（R&D）端增加的嗎？還是這仍然比較像是市場推廣（go-to-market）的支援成本，以及通路基礎的擴張？或者你們是從哪裡把那 50% 抽出來，才會讓貢獻毛利率（contribution margin）降到 10%？因為之前一直維持在 15% 到 20%。

Yes. It's a combination of both, I'd say. The other point I'd put -- I'd add in there is that our 2020 forecast includes AutoGuide. But it's both, really, investments in lead generation and closure, distribution, our partners. We're really putting forward the go-to-market. But then also things like fleet management, system software and different software capability to help drive the scalability of our solutions to customers.

是的。我會說兩者都有。另外我想補充的一點是，我們 2020 年的預測包含 AutoGuide。但確實兩者都有：在潛在客戶開發與成交、通路、以及我們的合作夥伴上的投資。我們確實在大力推進 go-to-market。但同時也包括像車隊管理、系統軟體，以及不同的軟體能力，來協助提升我們解決方案對客戶的可擴展性。

Okay. And then just as my second question, just -- Mark, I wanted to return to something you talked about, the 5G infrastructure business in the Semi Test. You referenced there that the market there and the demand there is pausing in the China market. I'm trying to get my arms around -- a little bit around the timetable here. Just from the standpoint of you continue to see some fairly aggressive production and deployment numbers around base stations in China, in the Asian market in general, and so is your reference to the test demand that that is in place ahead of the production? So in other words, there's some inventory of the chip content into the base stations? Or how do we reconcile the aggressive forecasts around production and deployment of base stations with your commentary about the market pausing out?

好的。然後作為我的第二個問題——Mark，我想回到你提到的半導體測試（Semi Test）中的 5G 基礎建設業務。你提到那邊的市場與需求在中國市場正在暫停。我想更清楚掌握一下——時間表大概是怎麼樣。因為從你們的角度看，中國以及整體亞洲市場在基地台的生產與部署數字仍相當積極；所以你提到的測試需求，是不是指測試需求是先於量產而提前發生？換句話說，基地台裡的晶片內容是否已經有一些庫存？或者我們要如何把基地台生產與部署的積極預測，和你說市場正在暫停的評論對起來？

Yes, it's exactly what you said. So in advance of deployments of the actual base stations, a lot of silicon test capacity goes in place. So now those base stations are churning out like mad out of the factories, which is why utilization of test equipment is very high. So it's required an additional bump in deployment rate of base stations to drive the next round of test equipment, so U.S., Europe, the rest of the world. And China as well, there's not enough really capacity in China to totally facilitate China where it has to get to. But what they need to do for 2020, it's probably sufficient.

是的，正如你所說。在實際基地台部署之前，會先建置大量的矽晶（silicon）測試產能。所以現在那些基地台正從工廠大量產出，這也是為什麼測試設備的稼動率非常高。因此，需要基地台部署速度再額外提升一波，才能帶動下一輪測試設備需求——也就是美國、歐洲以及世界其他地區。中國也是一樣，中國本身的產能其實不足以完全支撐中國要達到的目標，因此必須往外取得。但就他們 2020 年的需求來看，可能已經足夠。

Our next question comes from Sidney Ho with Deutsche Bank.

我們下一個問題來自德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）的 Sidney Ho。

You talk about second quarter revenue to be flat quarter-over-quarter in Q2, and that's different from how it was a few years ago, 2016 and 2017. Can you add a little more color, what are some of the factors that make it different than those 2 years?

你們提到第二季營收在 Q2 將與前一季持平（flat quarter-over-quarter），這和幾年前、2016 與 2017 年的情況不同。你能否再多補充一些背景，哪些因素讓它和那兩年不一樣？

Yes. It's Sanjay. So I think in Q1, we've had -- we will have some significant drivers outside of SOC test and then inside. The first one is storage test or system-level test and HDD where we'll have a significant revenue in Q1, which will decline in Q2. The second comment I'd make is that within Semi Test, we've got some share gains that require some initial tooling in Q1 that will be moderating in Q2. The last point I'd leave you with is that it's still early stages for Q2. This is roughly where we think we're going to end up.

是的。我是 Sanjay。我認為在 Q1，我們已經——我們將會有一些在 SoC 測試之外、以及 SoC 測試之內的重要驅動因素。第一個是儲存測試或系統層級測試，以及 HDD，我們在 Q1 會有相當可觀的營收，但在 Q2 會下滑。第二點是，在半導體測試（Semi Test）內，我們有一些市占提升需要在 Q1 先做初期的治具/工具（tooling）投入，而在 Q2 會趨於緩和。最後我想提醒的是，現在對 Q2 來說仍屬早期階段。這大致就是我們認為最終會落在的水準。

Okay. That's helpful. My follow-up is that you guided the SOC TAM to be, call it, roughly flat in 2020. How do you think about the different moving parts in terms of end markets? And related to that, how do you expect your share in SOC test to do this year? I think last year was around 40%. Any color, end market, customer mix, product mix that's driving the shares will be helpful.

好的。這很有幫助。我的追問是，你們指引 SoC 的 TAM 在 2020 年大致持平。你們如何看待終端市場在不同面向上的變動因素？以及相關地，你們預期今年在 SoC 測試的市占會如何表現？我記得去年大約是 40%。若能提供一些背景，例如終端市場、客戶組合、產品組合如何驅動市占，會很有幫助。

Yes. So our expectation this year is that the mix -- the combination of some of the design wins I alluded to in my remarks around the UltraFLEXplus platform, plus a little bit, I would say, of a shift toward our customers in this year will bring our share likely up into the mid-40% area is what we expect.

是的。我們今年的預期是：組合——也就是我在談話中提到的 UltraFLEXplus 平台的一些設計導入（design wins），再加上一點我會說是今年客戶結構的轉移——將使我們的市占很可能提升到 40% 中段（mid-40%）的區間，這是我們的預期。

Our final question will come from Tom Diffely with D.A. Davidson.

我們最後一個問題將來自 D.A. Davidson 的 Tom Diffely。

I was hoping you could talk a little bit more about the service component in Semi, in particular, going forward and how you see that playing out.

我希望你能再多談一點半導體（Semi）業務中的服務（service）組成，特別是往前看，你們認為它會如何發展。

In Semi?

在 Semi？

Yes.

是的。

So the -- yes, Semi service for us, for years, has been a very strong part of the portfolio. It's roughly -- runs around 20% of Semi revenue. And it's up into the $300 million range. We don't expect as a percentage of revenue it will vary that much. But that's roughly where it is.

所以——是的，對我們而言，Semi 的服務多年來一直是產品組合中非常強的一部分。它大約——約占 Semi 營收的 20%。金額大概在 3 億美元左右。我們不預期它占營收的比例會有太大變動。大致就是這樣的水準。

Okay. So there's not a view into that increasing markedly over the next few years as you get to your target model?

好的。所以在未來幾年、當你們達到目標模型時，並不認為它會顯著增加？

Yes. I think it will scale with System revenue. I think on the Industrial Automation side, that's an area where service will go from -- when we acquired these companies having essentially no service business, we're now growing service in those businesses at a faster rate than the top line. So that will be a story that evolves through over the next few years. But in Semi, it should stay consistent.

是的。我認為它會隨著系統（System）營收一起擴大。我認為在工業自動化（Industrial Automation）那一端，服務是一個會從——我們收購這些公司時基本上沒有服務業務——到現在我們在那些業務中的服務成長速度快於營收成長的領域。所以這會是一個在未來幾年逐步發展的故事。但在 Semi 方面，它應該會保持一致。

All right, everybody. Thank you so much for joining us today. I apologize for the static at the front end of the call, and we look forward to talking to you in the days and weeks ahead. Bye-bye.

各位。非常感謝今天加入我們。我為電話會議一開始的雜音致歉，我們也期待在接下來的幾天與幾週內再與各位交流。再見。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

各位女士、先生，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。您現在可以掛線。