泰瑞達 (TER) 2021 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Q1 2021 Teradyne Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

女士們、先生們，感謝你們的耐心等待，歡迎參加泰瑞達 2021 年第一季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Andy Blanchard. Thank you, sir. You may begin.

我現在想把會議交給今天的發言者安迪布蘭查德。謝謝你，先生。你可以開始了。

Thank you, April. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our discussion of Teradyne's most recent financial results. I'm joined this morning by our CEO, Mark Jagiela; and our CFO, Sanjay Mehta. Following our opening remarks, we'll provide details of our performance for 2021's first quarter, along with our outlook for the second quarter of '21. The press release containing our first quarter results was issued last evening. We're providing slides on the Investor page of the website that may be helpful to you in following the discussions. Replays of this call will be available via the same page after the call ends.

謝謝你，四月。大家早安，歡迎來到我們對泰瑞達最新財務表現的討論。今天早上我們的執行長 Mark Jagiela 也加入了我的行列。以及我們的財務長桑傑梅塔 (Sanjay Mehta)。在我們的開場白之後，我們將提供 2021 年第一季業績的詳細信息，以及對 21 年第二季的展望。包含我們第一季業績的新聞稿於昨晚發布。我們在網站的投資者頁面上提供幻燈片，可能對您追蹤討論有所幫助。通話結束後，可以透過同一頁面重播此通話。

The matters that we discuss today will include forward-looking statements that involve risk factors that could cause Teradyne's results to differ materially from management's current expectations. We encourage you to review the safe harbor statement contained in the earnings release as well as our most recent SEC filings. Additionally, these forward-looking statements are made as of today, and we take no obligation to update them as a result of developments occurring after this call.

我們今天討論的事項將包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述涉及可能導致泰瑞達的業績與管理層當前預期存在重大差異的風險因素。我們鼓勵您查看收益報告中包含的安全港聲明以及我們最近向 SEC 提交的文件。此外，這些前瞻性陳述是截至今天作出的，我們沒有義務因本次電話會議後發生的事態發展而更新這些陳述。

During today's call, we'll make reference to non-GAAP financial measures. We've posted additional information concerning these non-GAAP financial measures, including reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure where available on the Investor page of the website. Looking ahead between now and our next earnings call, Teradyne expects to participate in technology or industrial-focused investor conferences hosted by Wolfe Research, ISI Evercore, Baird, Bank of America, Bernstein and Stifel.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將參考非公認會計準則財務指標。我們發布了有關這些非 GAAP 財務指標的更多信息，包括與網站投資者頁面上最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的調整。展望從現在到下一次財報電話會議，泰瑞達預計將參加由 Wolfe Research、ISI Evercore、Baird、美國銀行、Bernstein 和 Stifel 主辦的以技術或工業為重點的投資者會議。

Now let's get on with the rest of the agenda. First, Mark will comment on our recent results and the market conditions as we enter the new quarter. Sanjay will then offer more details on our quarterly results along with our guidance for the second quarter, and we'll then answer your questions.

現在讓我們繼續議程的其餘部分。首先，馬克將評論我們最近的業績和進入新季度時的市場狀況。然後，桑傑將提供有關我們季度業績的更多詳細資訊以及第二季度的指導，然後我們將回答您的問題。

The call is scheduled for 1 hour. Mark?

通話預計為期 1 小時。標記？

Hello, everyone, and thanks for joining us today. In my remarks, I'll summarize our Q1 results, review current market conditions and provide an update on how we're looking at Q2 and the full year. Sanjay will then take you through the financial details of the quarter and our outlook for the second quarter. As you saw in our press release, our Q1 sales and profits grew double digits from Q1 of 2020's record level.

大家好，感謝您今天加入我們。在我的演講中，我將總結我們第一季的業績，回顧當前的市場狀況，並提供我們對第二季和全年的看法的最新資訊。然後，桑傑將向您介紹本季的財務細節以及我們對第二季的展望。正如您在我們的新聞稿中看到的，我們第一季的銷售額和利潤較 2020 年第一季的創紀錄水平增長了兩位數。

Test sales grew 9% on broad-based demand with notable strength in automotive, industrial compute, memory and storage. Industrial Automation sales grew 33% in the quarter with strong demand at both UR and MiR. Notably, since our January call, the market demand in both Test and IA has been greater than we expected, as you can see from our Q2 guidance. In Semiconductor Test, customer orders are very strong as complexity continues to increase and chip units are expected to grow almost 15% this year, more than twice last year's rate. Regarding the sustainability of this demand, our visibility is limited to just a quarter or 2, but the growth in WFE from $50 billion in 2017 to $60 billion last year to over $75 billion this year should translate into a healthy tester market in the years ahead.

由於汽車、工業運算、記憶體和儲存領域的廣泛需求，測試銷售額成長了 9%。由於 UR 和 MiR 的強勁需求，本季工業自動化銷售額成長了 33%。值得注意的是，自從我們 1 月的電話會議以來，測試和 IA 的市場需求都大於我們的預期，正如您從我們的第二季指導中看到的那樣。在半導體測試領域，隨著複雜性不斷增加，客戶訂單非常強勁，預計今年晶片單元將成長近 15%，是去年成長率的兩倍多。關於這項需求的可持續性，我們的能見度僅限於四分之一或二分之一，但WFE 從2017 年的500 億美元增長到去年的600 億美元，再到今年的超過750 億美元，應該會在未來幾年轉化為健康的測試儀市場。

Looking at SOC demand, the auto industrial segment is especially robust, with our Q1 Eagle shipments up nearly 90% year-on-year, and deliveries expected to grow further in Q2. Test demand for mobility and compute devices is also running ahead of our January estimates as these end markets push the performance limits of advanced process nodes and drive the highest complexity growth. This higher complexity drives longer chip test times and often demands unique tester capabilities. Our UltraFLEX platforms are well aligned to these performance dynamics.

從SOC需求來看，汽車工業領域尤其強勁，我們第一季Eagle出貨量年增近90%，預計第二季交車量將進一步成長。行動和運算設備的測試需求也超出了我們 1 月的估計，因為這些終端市場推動了先進製程節點的效能極限並推動了最高的複雜性成長。這種更高的複雜性導致晶片測試時間更長，並且通常需要獨特的測試儀功能。我們的 UltraFLEX 平台非常適合這些效能動態。

As a result of this demand strength, we now expect the SOC Test market to be in the $4 billion to $4.4 billion range, up about $700 million at the midpoint from our January estimate. This equates to about 16% growth from 2020, and we expect our share in SOC to be at about the 50% level. In memory test, we are seeing continued strength in both flash and DRAM. We now expect the full year memory test market to be in the $900 million to $1.1 billion range, up about $100 million from our January estimate and up about 5% from 2020 levels.

由於需求強勁，我們現在預計 SOC 測試市場將在 40 億至 44 億美元之間，將比我們 1 月的估計中位數增加約 7 億美元。這相當於自 2020 年起約 16% 的增長，我們預計我們在 SOC 中的份額將達到 50% 左右的水平。在記憶體測試中，我們看到快閃記憶體和 DRAM 持續走強。我們現在預計全年記憶體測試市場規模將在 9 億至 11 億美元之間，比我們 1 月的預測增加約 1 億美元，比 2020 年的水準成長約 5%。

Our Magnum platform is in lockstep with the performance trends in both markets, and we expect another strong year in 2021. However, since most of the test market growth is expected to be wafer test applications, where we have less exposure, we're likely to see our share dip a few points into the upper 30s.

我們的Magnum 平台與兩個市場的效能趨勢保持同步，我們預計2021 年又將是強勁的一年。少，因此我們可能會看到我們的份額下降了幾個點，進入了 30 多歲。

In System Test, revenue grew 14% from Q1 '20, primarily on higher Storage Test shipments. As we've noted in past calls, Storage Test is linked to increasing density and complexity of data center hard disk drives and the expanding adoption of system-level test per chip test. Our full year outlook for this business has improved from January as well on strength in both applications. The defense and aerospace and Board test units of STG are also performing well, and we expect the overall group will grow revenue 5% to 10% this year.

在系統測試方面，營收比 20 年第一季成長了 14%，主要是由於儲存測試出貨量增加。正如我們在過去的電話會議中指出的那樣，儲存測試與資料中心硬碟密度和複雜性的增加以及每晶片測試系統級測試的廣泛採用有關。我們對該業務的全年展望比一月份有所改善，這兩個應用程式的實力也有所改善。 STG的國防和航空航太以及電路板測試部門也表現良好，我們預計今年整個集團的營收將成長5%至10%。

Our LitePoint business is driven by the complexity of new wireless standards in the connectivity, cellular and other wireless markets. In Q1, connectivity demand was the dominant revenue driver as WiFi 6E ramps in smartphones and access points. We expect LitePoint to grow in the 0% to 5% range in 2021.

我們的 LitePoint 業務是由連接、蜂窩和其他無線市場中新無線標準的複雜性所推動的。第一季度，隨著 WiFi 6E 在智慧型手機和接入點中的普及，連接需求成為主要的收入驅動因素。我們預計 LitePoint 2021 年的成長率將在 0% 至 5% 之間。

Shifting to Industrial Automation. We are on track to grow 30-plus percent for the year. At the macro level, industrial economies are recovering with global PMIs above 50, indicating growing manufacturing investments. At the ground level, we are seeing increasing customer buying driven by economics, quality and lack of available shop floor labor. At UR, revenue grew 32% from Q1 '20 with a notable recovery in China where sales more than doubled in the quarter. Our China performance reflects the compelling value proposition UR offers, even in the face of low-cost competitors.

轉向工業自動化。我們今年預計將實現 30% 以上的成長。宏觀層面，工業經濟正在復甦，全球PMI在50以上，顯示製造業投資不斷成長。在底層，我們看到由於經濟、品質和可用車間勞動力缺乏而推動的客戶購買量不斷增加。 UR 的營收較 20 年第一季成長了 32%，其中中國市場顯著復甦，本季銷售額成長了一倍以上。我們在中國的表現反映了 UR 提供的令人信服的價值主張，即使面對低成本競爭對手也是如此。

We not only have the durability to operate in high-intensity production environments where downtime can't be tolerated, but we also offer a unique suite of organic and ecosystem provided software and peripherals to address a wide range of tasks with short deployment times. We're also seeing growth outside of the traditional manufacturing tasks. In the last several quarters, we've seen volume shipments of cobots to perform industrial service tasks, such as maintenance of high-power transmission lines while energized and robotic inspection of wind turbine blades. Together, these 2 applications account for over 500 installed cobots, and this should approximately double in 2021. Both examples highlight the flexibility of UR arms and value in performing dangerous service tasks.

我們不僅具有在不能容忍停機的高強度生產環境中運行的耐用性，而且還提供一套獨特的有機和生態系統提供的軟體和周邊設備，以在較短的部署時間內解決各種任務。我們也看到傳統製造任務以外的成長。在過去的幾個季度中，我們看到用於執行工業服務任務的協作機器人的批量出貨，例如在通電時維護高功率輸電線路以及對風力渦輪機葉片進行機器人檢查。這兩個應用總共佔已安裝的協作機器人 500 多個，到 2021 年，這一數字大約會翻一番。

MiR also delivered strong results in the quarter, growing 55% year-on-year. A big part of that success has been the new MiR250, which was introduced in March of last year and was our leading seller in Q1. We are also seeing a nice expansion of applications for MiR products. Initially, most applications were moving goods to and fro. Last year, we saw a dramatic expansion in the use of MiR robots as the platform for mobile tasks such as disinfecting workspaces. And now we're seeing growing use in the conveyor market where our mobile platform replaces fixed conveyors. This provides owners greater flexibility than traditional fixed conveyor system and allows them to reconfigure their factory on the fly as production requirements dictate.

MiR 在本季也取得了強勁的業績，較去年同期成長 55%。這項成功的一個重要部分是新的 MiR250，它於去年 3 月推出，是我們第一季的暢銷產品。我們也看到 MiR 產品的應用得到了很好的擴展。最初，大多數應用程式都是來回移動貨物。去年，我們看到 MiR 機器人作為移動任務平台的使用急劇擴展，例如對工作空間進行消毒。現在，我們看到輸送機市場的使用越來越多，我們的行動平台取代了固定輸送機。與傳統的固定輸送機系統相比，這為業主提供了更大的靈活性，並允許他們根據生產要求動態重新配置工廠。

Although both UR and -- at both UR and MiR, our expanding range of plug-and-play apps, now totaling over 430 in our UR+ and MiRGo ecosystem, shortens the deployment time and increases the addressable market for cobots, adding additional growth factors for us. But we're not firing on all cylinders in IA yet. At AutoGuide, we have lowered our expectations for 2021. This year, we will focus on expanding existing customer deployments while we complete a series of engineering projects designed to scale and win new customers in the future. While this is surely a reset at our AutoGuide plan, we remain confident in the potential of the nascent market for high payload autonomous mobile robots and our ability to leverage AutoGuide's unique product architecture to deliver differentiated value to this growing market.

儘管UR 以及UR 和MiR 不斷擴大的即插即用應用程式範圍（目前在我們的UR+ 和MiRGo 生態系統中總計超過430 個）縮短了部署時間並增加了協作機器人的潛在市場，從而增加了額外的成長因素為了我們。但我們還沒有在 IA 全力以赴。在 AutoGuide，我們降低了對 2021 年的預期。雖然這肯定是我們 AutoGuide 計劃的重置，但我們仍然對高負載自主移動機器人新興市場的潛力以及我們利用 AutoGuide 獨特的產品架構為這個不斷增長的市場提供差異化價值的能力充滿信心。

Rolling it all up, the demand environment in our test businesses has strengthened dramatically since January and the wafer front end equipment forecasts suggest that tester demand over the next few years will continue to grow. In Industrial Automation, UR and MiR are benefiting from their differentiated products and the improving global economy, which puts us on track for a total IA group revenue growth of 30-plus percent for the year. Our employees are doing a great job, and our operating model is delivering strong financial profits and free cash flow.

總而言之，自一月份以來，我們測試業務的需求環境急劇增強，晶圓前端設備預測表明，未來幾年測試儀需求將繼續增長。在工業自動化領域，UR 和 MiR 受益於其差異化產品和不斷改善的全球經濟，這使我們預計在今年實現 IA 集團總收入成長 30% 以上。我們的員工做得很好，我們的營運模式正在帶來強勁的財務利潤和自由現金流。

And finally, I'd like to recognize and thank our Board Chair, Roy Vallee, who will be retiring next month after 20 years on the Teradyne Board. Roy's leadership, integrity and wise counsel have been invaluable to me and the executive team, and we all wish him the best in his future pursuits.

最後，我要感謝我們的董事會主席 Roy Vallee，他在泰瑞達董事會任職 20 年後將於下個月退休。羅伊的領導能力、正直和明智的建議對我和執行團隊來說非常寶貴，我們都祝福他在未來的事業中一切順利。

Sanjay will now take you through the financial details. Sanjay?

Sanjay 現在將帶您了解財務詳細資訊。桑傑？

Thank you, Mark. Good morning, everyone. Today, I'll provide details on our Q1 results, offer additional color on the operating environment, along with our plans to address a very strong demand environment and describe our Q2 outlook. During the appropriate sections, I'll provide some full year expectations.

謝謝你，馬克。大家，早安。今天，我將提供有關第一季業績的詳細信息，提供有關營運環境的更多信息，以及我們應對非常強勁的需求環境的計劃，並描述我們第二季度的前景。 在適當的部分中，我將提供一些全年期望。

Now to Q1. First year -- or sorry, first quarter sales were $782 million with non-GAAP EPS of $1.11. Non-GAAP gross margins were 59.1% and our non-GAAP operating expenses were $230 million, above our high guidance due to high variable compensation and G&A expenses. Non-GAAP operating profit rate was 29.6%. We had 2 10% customers in the quarter. Tax rate, excluding discrete items for the quarter, was 14.75% on both a GAAP and non-GAAP basis. Looking at the results from a business unit perspective, Semi Test revenue was $528 million, was up 9% from Q1 '21. SOC revenue was $420 million, up from prior year, driven by strength in compute, industrial and automotive markets, offset by a decline in our mobility shipments.

現在到 Q1。第一年——或抱歉，第一季銷售額為 7.82 億美元，非 GAAP 每股收益為 1.11 美元。非 GAAP 毛利率為 59.1%，我們的非 GAAP 營運費用為 2.3 億美元，由於高可變薪酬和 G&A 費用，高於我們的高指引。非公認會計準則營業利益率為29.6%。本季我們有 2 個 10% 的客戶。以 GAAP 和非 GAAP 計算，本季稅率（不含離散項目）均為 14.75%。從業務部門的角度來看，Semi Test 營收為 5.28 億美元，比 21 年第一季成長 9%。受計算、工業和汽車市場實力的推動，SOC 收入較上年增長 4.2 億美元，但被我們的行動出貨量下降所抵消。

Memory revenue was $108 million, up from prior year, driven by strength in flash final test segment. System Test group had revenue of $133 million which was up 14% year-over-year. This was driven by $95 million in Storage Test sales, including HDD and SLT solutions and $38 million in defense and aerospace and production board test. At LitePoint, revenue of $41 million was above plan, but down about 6% from prior year due to lower cellular test shipments.

受閃存最終測試領域的實力推動，記憶體收入為 1.08 億美元，較去年有所成長。系統測試集團營收為 1.33 億美元，年增 14%。這是由 9,500 萬美元的儲存測試銷售額（包括 HDD 和 SLT 解決方案）以及 3,800 萬美元的國防和航空航太及生產板測試銷售額所推動的。 LitePoint 的收入為 4,100 萬美元，高於計劃，但由於蜂窩測試出貨量下降，較上年下降約 6%。

Looking at our test portfolio overall. We're very optimistic about the market and technology trends unfolding over the midterm. The growing attach rate of electronics across the economy, the increasing complexity of those devices and significantly, a faster refresh rate for many of these complex devices benefit all of our test businesses. Looking at a significant example, the increasing number of companies creating high-performance processors to serve a growing range of end applications, each with unique performance and design cycles, is driving an estimated doubling of the compute portion of the SOC Test market this year compared with 2018. We've designed our UltraFLEXplus platform to serve this growing market and are having early success. This trend has complementary impacts on memory and SLT markets as well.

整體來看我們的測試組合。我們對中期發展的市場和技術趨勢非常樂觀。整個經濟體中電子產品的附加率不斷增長，這些設備的複雜性不斷增加，而且許多複雜設備的刷新率更快，這些都使我們所有的測試業務受益。看一個重要的例子，越來越多的公司創建高效能處理器來服務越來越多的終端應用，每個處理器都具有獨特的性能和設計週期，預計今年SOC 測試市場的計算部分將翻倍。這一趨勢對記憶體和 SLT 市場也有互補的影響。

Now to Industrial Automation. Given 2020 was a contraction year, I'll provide revenue metrics comparing Q1 '21 results with Q1 '20 and Q1 '19. Industrial Automation revenue was $80 million, was up 33% year-over-year and 21% over Q1 '19. Q1 '21 was a record for the seasonally soft first quarter of the year. U.S. and Europe represented over 70% of our IA revenue in the first quarter. As Mark noted, strength in China for UR, I'll add that we saw the IA group revenue in China more than double year-over-year and grow greater than 50% over Q1 '19. UR sales were $66 million in Q1, up 32% year-over-year and 15% over Q1 '19. MiR sales were $14 million, up 55% from both Q1 '20 and Q1 '19. Sales increased in every region over Q1 '20. In addition to the success of MiR250 that Mark noted, we also are starting to see a positive shipment trend towards higher payload MiR500 and MiR1000 models, which should improve our ASPs over time.

現在介紹工業自動化。鑑於 2020 年是收縮年，我將提供將 21 年第一季的結果與 20 年第一季和 19 年第一季的結果進行比較的收入指標。工業自動化收入為 8,000 萬美元，年增 33%，比 19 年第一季成長 21%。 21 年第一季創下了今年第一季季節性疲軟的紀錄。第一季度，美國和歐洲占我們 IA 收入的 70% 以上。正如 Mark 指出的，UR 在中國的實力，我要補充一點，我們看到 IA 集團在中國的收入同比增長了一倍多，並且比 19 年第一季度增長了 50% 以上。第一季 UR 銷售額為 6,600 萬美元，年增 32%，比 19 年第一季成長 15%。 MiR 銷售額為 1,400 萬美元，比 20 年第一季和 19 年第一季成長 55%。 20 年第一季度，每個地區的銷售額均有所成長。除了 Mark 指出的 MiR250 的成功之外，我們還開始看到更高有效負載的 MiR500 和 MiR1000 型號的積極出貨趨勢，這應該會隨著時間的推移提高我們的平均售價。

Demand at both UR and MiR continues to improve as the global economy recovers and companies work to add production capacity. The opportunity of automation is growing. Our IA portfolio is solving problems for companies such as improving economics with a typical ROI of approximately 1 year, addressing labor shortages experienced by manufacturing and warehousing firms and adding supply chain resilience over the long term. From a financial perspective in IA, we continue to lean into engineering, ecosystem and distribution investments to expand the range of applications in our IA products -- our IA products address and extend our global distribution reach.

隨著全球經濟復甦以及各公司努力增加產能，UR 和 MiR 的需求持續改善。自動化的機會正在成長。我們的 IA 產品組合正在為公司解決問題，例如以大約 1 年的典型投資回報率提高經濟效益、解決製造和倉儲公司遇到的勞動力短缺問題以及增強供應鏈的長期彈性。從IA的財務角度來看，我們繼續傾向於工程、生態系統和分銷投資，以擴大我們IA產品的應用範圍——我們的IA產品解決並擴大我們的全球分銷範圍。

Our goal in the short-term is to balance investments with sales growth in order to deliver an annual IA group operating profit of between 5% and 15%. However, given the reset Mark described at AutoGuide, we now expect AG revenues of less than $10 million in 2021, and AG will not be profitable in '21. As a result, at the IA group level, we expect we'll operate above breakeven in '21, but below that target profit range. We do expect both UR and MiR each to operate above the Rule of 40 in 2021. That is, the sum of the operating profit, revenue growth will be over 40%. We continue to have confidence in our IA growth over the midterm, as articulated in our January earnings model update and expect the overall group to grow revenue over 30% in 2021.

我們的短期目標是平衡投資與銷售成長，以實現 IA 集團的年度營業利潤在 5% 至 15% 之間。然而，考慮到 AutoGuide 中描述的重置馬克，我們現在預計 2021 年 AG 的收入將低於 1000 萬美元，並且 AG 在 21 年不會盈利。因此，在 IA 集團層面，我們預計 21 年的營運將高於損益平衡點，但低於目標利潤範圍。我們確實預期 UR 和 MiR 到 2021 年的營運均將高於 40 法則。正如 1 月份獲利模型更新所述，我們仍然對中期 IA 成長充滿信心，並預計 2021 年整個集團的收入成長將超過 30%。

Shifting to supply. As Mark noted, the test market size has increased significantly across the board. From a supply perspective, we are dealing with increasing lead times and cost increases, predominantly in the semiconductor area. Given the significant demand increase and the challenging supply environment, we are experiencing some shipment delays. This is most acute in the automotive and industrial tester markets where demand is significantly outstripping supply. We are working with our customers on a daily basis to minimize the impact of these delays. We see this challenge accelerating into the third quarter with supplier lead times increasing.

轉向供應。正如馬克所指出的那樣，測試市場規模全面顯著增加。從供應角度來看，我們正在應對交貨時間延長和成本增加的問題，主要是在半導體領域。鑑於需求大幅成長和供應環境充滿挑戰，我們遇到了一些延遲出貨的情況。這在汽車和工業測試儀市場最為嚴重，因為這些市場的需求遠遠超過供應。我們每天都與客戶合作，盡量減少這些延誤的影響。隨著供應商交貨時間的延長，我們看到這項挑戰在第三季加速。

I appreciate the incredible pace of our operations team and partners around the world have operated for over a year and continue to be impressed with their efforts to meet the needs of our customers. To sustain that pace and create a more resilient operation, we're continuing to invest in manufacturing capacity around the world. This includes qualifying redundant suppliers, production sites for critical components and redundant manufacturing capacity in new locations.

我很欣賞我們的營運團隊和世界各地的合作夥伴在一年多的營運中所取得的令人難以置信的速度，並繼續對他們為滿足客戶需求所做的努力印象深刻。為了保持這一速度並創造更具彈性的運營，我們將繼續投資於世界各地的製造能力。這包括合格的冗餘供應商、關鍵部件的生產基地以及新地點的冗餘製造能力。

Shifting to the balance sheet and cash flow. Our cash and marketable securities at the end of the quarter totaled $1.43 billion. We had $1 million in negative free cash flow in the quarter and spent $45 million and $17 million on buybacks and dividends, respectively. To date, $67 million of the convertible bondholders have elected to convert early. And in Q1, we paid $51 million of it to the bondholders. Regarding the buyback, we plan to increase our daily buying throughout the year and expect to purchase a minimum of $600 million in 2021, as noted in January. The relatively low volume of buybacks in Q1 was planned for 3 reasons.

轉向資產負債表和現金流量。截至本季末，我們的現金和有價證券總額為 14.3 億美元。本季我們的自由現金流為 100 萬美元，回購和股利分別支出 4,500 萬美元和 1,700 萬美元。迄今為止，已有 6,700 萬美元的可轉換債券持有人選擇提前轉換。在第一季度，我們向債券持有人支付了 5,100 萬美元。關於回購，我們計劃增加全年每日購買量，預計 2021 年至少購買 6 億美元，如 1 月所述。第一季回購量相對較低的原因有 3 個。

First, recall Q1 is a seasonally high use of cash, where we typically pay out our variable compensation and ramp up our prepayments to support increased Q2 test production. Second, we wanted to understand how much of our convertible debt would be redeemed in Q1. Third, we wanted to confirm the global recovery from the pandemic remained on track.

首先，回顧第一季度，現金的季節性使用較多，我們通常會支付可變薪酬並增加預付款，以支持第二季度測試產量的增加。其次，我們想了解第一季將贖回多少可轉換債務。第三，我們想確認全球從疫情復甦的勢頭仍在正軌上。

Now to Q2. As you've heard this morning, customer demand is strong and in nearly all parts of the business, our guidance assumes that we'll continue to be successful dealing with the numerous material shortages we noted earlier and that we won't see additional pandemic-related issues. With that said, sales in Q2 are expected to be between $1.01 billion and $1.09 billion, with non-GAAP EPS in a range of $1.62 to $1.83 on 177 million diluted shares. The second quarter guidance excludes the amortization of acquired intangibles and the noncash imputed interest on the convertible debt. Second quarter gross margins are estimated at 58%. OpEx is expected to run at 23% to 25% of second quarter sales. The non-GAAP operating profit at the midpoint of our second quarter guidance is 34%.

現在到第二季。正如您今天早上所聽到的，客戶需求強勁，幾乎在所有業務領域，我們的指導假設我們將繼續成功處理我們之前註意到的眾多材料短缺問題，並且我們不會看到更多的大流行-相關問題。儘管如此，第二季的銷售額預計將在 10.1 億美元至 10.9 億美元之間，非 GAAP 每股收益將在 1.77 億股稀釋後的 1.62 美元至 1.83 美元之間。第二季指引不包括所收購無形資產的攤銷和可轉換債務的非現金推定利息。第二季毛利率預計為 58%。營運支出預計將佔第二季銷售額的 23% 至 25%。我們第二季指引中位數的非 GAAP 營業利潤為 34%。

Regarding OpEx for the full year. We now expect OpEx will grow 17% to 19% over 2020. Note that this is up from our January plan for 2021, where we guided growth over 2020 at 8% to 10%. The increase from January in order of magnitude is in 3 general categories. One, higher revenue-driving, higher estimated variable compensation and higher engineering costs related to mitigating supply constraints. Two, higher incremental spending to accelerate several engineering projects in test and IA. And three, higher-than-expected G&A spending related to legal, insurance and IT costs. As we noted in January and included in the estimate, we expect travel and marketing expenses to increase through the remainder of the year as pandemic restrictions ease. As outlined last quarter, we set our sight on reaching $5.25 to $6.75 in EPS by 2024 in our earnings model. In 2021, we expect our largest end market, semi test, to grow 14% at the estimated midpoint above the estimate in our earnings model.

關於全年營運支出。我們現在預計 2020 年營運支出將成長 17% 至 19%。與 1 月相比，增幅主要分為 3 個類別。第一，與緩解供應限制相關的更高的收入驅動、更高的估計可變補償和更高的工程成本。第二，增加支出以加速測試和 IA 方面的多個工程項目。第三，與法律、保險和 IT 成本相關的一般管理支出高於預期。正如我們在一月份指出的並包含在估計中的那樣，隨著大流行限制的放鬆，我們預計旅行和行銷費用在今年剩餘時間內將會增加。如上季所述，我們的獲利模型目標是到 2024 年每股收益達到 5.25 美元至 6.75 美元。到 2021 年，我們預計我們最大的終端市場（半測試市場）的預期中位數將成長 14%，高於我們獲利模型中的預測。

Combined with industrial end markets recovering from the pandemic slump, these data points reinforce that our midterm earnings plan is on a solid foundation. We update our earnings model each January. In our next update, we'll look closely at both the WFE forecasts and test growth rates.

加上工業終端市場從大流行的低迷中復甦，這些數據點強化了我們的中期盈利計劃有著堅實的基礎。我們每年一月都會更新我們的獲利模型。在下一次更新中，我們將仔細研究 WFE 預測和測試成長率。

To sum up, the demand environment across nearly all of our markets remain strong, and we're working closely with our suppliers and customers to expand shipments and minimize the impact of material shortages. We've had an outstanding start to the year, and we are on a path to healthy sales growth and profit growth for 2021. At the midpoint of our Q2 guidance, we'll see sales grow 19% and non-GAAP EPS grow 21% above the first half of 2020, which itself was a record. We are well on our way to achieving our midterm revenue and earnings goals we set in our new earnings model.

總而言之，我們幾乎所有市場的需求環境仍然強勁，我們正在與供應商和客戶密切合作，以擴大出貨量並盡量減少材料短缺的影響。今年我們取得了出色的開局，我們正走在2021 年健康銷售成長和利潤成長的道路上。 21%比 2020 年上半年高出 %，這本身就是一個紀錄。我們正在順利實現我們在新獲利模式中設定的中期收入和獲利目標。

With that, I'll turn things back to Andy.

有了這個，我會把事情轉回給安迪。

Thanks, Sanjay. April, we'd now like to take some questions. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝，桑傑。四月，我們現在想回答一些問題。 （操作員說明）

(Operator Instructions) And your first question is from C.J. Muse with Evercore.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Evercore 的 C.J. Muse。

I guess first question, as it relates to the higher SOC Test outlook, can you share with us what you're seeing in terms of arm gaining momentum in both servers and PCs? And how we should think about that impacting your SOC Test revenue growth and market share?

我想第一個問題涉及更高的 SOC 測試前景，您能否與我們分享您所看到的 ARM 在伺服器和 PC 領域的發展勢頭？我們應該如何看待這對您的 SOC 測試收入成長和市場佔有率的影響？

Yes. I think it's a subtheme of what's happening in the compute area. The compute market for test this year will potentially double. Arm is eroding certain established share positions, and we're doing very well with arm. So -- but I think we're still in early innings there. I don't think this is sort of the end, it's sort of the beginning. And the proliferation of other bespoke architectures that are high -- 10 billion plus transistor count devices is proliferating, at least in design. They haven't started to ramp yet, but they're being worked on in design. So it looks to me like over the next few years, that compute segment is going to be very strong.

是的。我認為這是計算領域正在發生的事情的一個子主題。今年測試的計算市場可能會翻倍。 Arm 正在侵蝕某些既定的份額地位，而我們在 Arm 方面做得很好。所以——但我認為我們仍處於早期階段。我認為這不是結束，而是開始。其他高客製化架構的激增——晶體管數量超過 100 億的裝置正在激增，至少在設計方面是如此。它們還沒有開始投入使用，但正在設計中。 因此，在我看來，未來幾年，計算領域將會非常強大。

Very helpful. I guess as a follow-up, can you share with us your outlook for System Level Test combined with HDD growth in '21? And then thinking about the acceleration in near-line demand, how we should think about the growth CAGR there beyond 2021?

很有幫助。我想作為後續行動，您能否與我們分享您對 21 年系統級測試以及 HDD 成長的展望？然後考慮近線需求的加速，我們應該如何考慮 2021 年後的複合年增長率？

Yes. I think the System Level Test and HDD markets are both still on a growth trajectory. We had a big, big year last year. We didn't expect that. We might have a little digestion this year, but no, it's still heading north. And I think on the HDD front, that one looks like line of sight for several years ahead is positive. The exabyte growth in the 18-terabyte and above drive space just is very test intensive. And I don't see anything sort of blunting the transitions in the cloud storage to anything but those high-intensity drives.

是的。我認為系統級測試和硬碟市場仍處於成長軌道。去年我們度過了非常非常重要的一年。我們沒想到會這樣。今年我們可能會有一點消化，但沒有，它仍在向北移動。我認為在硬碟方面，未來幾年的前景看起來是積極的。 18 TB 及以上驅動器空間的 EB 成長需要非常密集的測試。我沒有看到任何東西會削弱雲端儲存向高強度驅動器以外的任何東西的過渡。

SLT is a little more of, I think, a lumpy market at this point. It could continue to sequentially grow, but it's still limited to very, I would say, a small subset of the market. Manufacturers building very high complexity devices in high volumes. Now engineering work is going on to make SLT more meaningful to lower complexity devices. And I think as those products come to market over the next few years, you'll start to see customer expansion in SLT and the market will grow. But I would sort of say, I wouldn't be surprised to see plus or minus 25% year-over-year swings as we try to get to a broader adoption of SLT.

我認為，目前 SLT 的市場更加不穩定。它可能會繼續持續成長，但我想說，它仍然僅限於市場的一小部分。製造商大量生產非常複雜的設備。現在，工程工作正在進行中，以使 SLT 對於較低複雜性的設備更有意義。我認為，隨著這些產品在未來幾年進入市場，您將開始看到 SLT 的客戶擴張，市場也會成長。但我想說，當我們試圖更廣泛地採用 SLT 時，看到正負 25% 的同比波動我不會感到驚訝。

Your next question is from Atif Malik with Citi.

您的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Atif Malik。

Congratulations on another strong quarter and guide. Mark, can you compare or contrast the mobility and compute piece at your largest customer, which was 25% of sales last year versus the 2018, 2019 period where you saw correction? Obviously, the dynamics are quite different with 5G and now the compute piece this year.

祝賀又一個強勁的季度和指南。 Mark，您能否比較或對比您最大客戶的行動性和計算部分（去年佔銷售額的 25%）與 2018 年、2019 年期間您看到的調整？顯然，5G 和今年的計算部分的動態有很大不同。

Yes. Unfortunately, I'm not going to be able to break down anything related to any customer's mix. So I can't address your question specifically. I do think though that the lumpiness compared to prior years has smoothed a bit because of the bigger portfolio of devices that are at play here. So -- and one of the big revisions, I would say, to our market size estimate as we move through the year, I've always talked about that our -- in our largest customer, the demand profile becomes clear in April. And up until April, there's a lot of variability. And it is starting to become clear, and it is stronger than we had expected. So that's part of the story of what's driving up the market and our revenue this year.

是的。不幸的是，我無法分解與任何客戶組合相關的任何內容。所以我無法具體回答你的問題。我確實認為，由於這裡使用的設備組合更大，與前幾年相比，波動性已經緩解。因此，我想說，隨著這一年的發展，對我們市場規模估計的重大修改之一是，我一直在談論我們最大的客戶，需求狀況在四月變得清晰。直到四月份，變化很大。它開始變得清晰，而且比我們預期的要強大。這就是今年推動市場和我們收入成長的部分原因。

Great. And as a follow-up for Sanjay. Sanjay, if you can comment on the M&A strategy from here. On the last earnings call, you mentioned that even some areas in Semiconductor Test are interesting to you guys. So just curious with the setback in the AutoGuide area, what are you thinking about M&A?

偉大的。作為桑傑的後續行動。 Sanjay，您可以在這裡評論一下併購策略嗎？在上次財報電話會議上，你們提到，甚至半導體測試的某些領域你們也很感興趣。所以只是對 AutoGuide 領域的挫折感到好奇，您對併購有何看法？

Sure. Thanks. Yes. So as you know, M&A is a key part of our allocation strategy. And over the years, we've had a focus on industrial automation. We have an active business development organization that continues to look at different opportunities and will continue to do so. And we're spending time as a management team kind of reviewing them. And when an opportunity makes sense both financially and a strategic product fit, we will act, and we'll advise at that time.

當然。謝謝。是的。如您所知，併購是我們配置策略的關鍵部分。多年來，我們一直專注於工業自動化。我們擁有一個活躍的業務開發組織，該組織將繼續尋找不同的機會，並將繼續這樣做。我們作為管理團隊正在花時間來審查它們。當一個機會在財務和策略產品上都有意義時，我們就會採取行動，並在那時提供建議。

Your next question is from Vivek Arya with Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Vivek Arya。

I think, Mark, you mentioned something interesting in your prepared remarks, which is that there could be some correlation between the rising front end WFE investments, that at some point, they will have a pull-through effect on testers. I'm curious, what have been your impressions over this correlation from a historical perspective. Because this year will be kind of the second very strong year for WFE. And there are expectations for almost 30% kind of growth this year. When do you see that impacting the demand for testers? Does it happen with a 6-month lag? Does it happen with a 1-year lag? And what is the kind of -- should we be expecting a 30% growth in testers next year, right? So just curious what you think the correlation is?

我想，馬克，你在準備好的發言中提到了一些有趣的事情，那就是不斷增加的前端 WFE 投資之間可能存在某種相關性，在某些時候，它們將對測試人員產生拉動效應。我很好奇，從歷史的角度來看，您對這種相關性有何印象？因為今年將是 WFE 表現強勁的第二年。預計今年的成長將達到近 30%。什麼時候看到這會影響對測試人員的需求？是否會滯後 6 個月發生？是否會滯後 1 年發生？我們是否應該預計明年測試人員數量將增加 30%，對嗎？所以只是好奇你認為相關性是什麼？

Yes. So there is a correlation and a lag, as you alluded to. So front end equipment usually goes into fabs. There's a period of time then after all of that is installed. Revenue gets recognized on behalf of those equipment makers and the fab gets tuned. The recipe, the yields and things before the fab is put into commission for real customer shipments. So that can take anywhere from -- the good suppliers these days maybe get through that phase in about 3 to 4 months. But then it's not a light switch that turns on. It's more like a knob on a faucet because you start to ramp wafer outs slowly and you proportionately start adding testers.

是的。因此，正如您所提到的，存在相關性和滯後性。因此前端設備通常進入晶圓廠。所有這些都安裝完畢之後，還有一段時間。代表這些設備製造商確認收入，並調整晶圓廠。配方、產量以及晶圓廠投入實際客戶出貨前的準備工作。因此，現在的優秀供應商可能會在大約 3 到 4 個月內完成這一階段。但隨後它就不是一個電燈開關打開了。它更像是水龍頭上的旋鈕，因為你開始緩慢地增加晶圓產量，並按比例開始添加測試人員。

So what you can expect to see is, let's say, maybe, in the beginning, the tester orders lag 4 to 5 months, but they really get going kind of a year after the fab equipment goes in. So if you offset the tester market from the fab investments by about, let's say, a year plus or minus 3 months, you get a good indication of growth. Now if you go back for the past 5 years, you'll see there's been pretty steady monotonic growth in WFE and there's been pretty steady monotonic growth in the tester market. It's just -- I think the most recent step, though, from 60 to 70 plus is larger than we've seen historically. So if all of that happens and it's truly put into commission, I would expect it to be something that pulls up the growth rate a little bit higher than we've seen in the past.

因此，您可以預期看到的是，也許一開始，測試機訂單會滯後4 到5 個月，但在晶圓廠設備投入使用一年後，它們才真正開始運轉。機市場的影響比方說，從晶圓廠投資大約一年加減三個月，您就可以得到良好的成長跡象。現在，如果您回顧過去 5 年，您會發現 WFE 的單調成長相當穩定，測試儀市場的單調成長也非常穩定。只是——我認為最近從 60 到 70 的進步比我們歷史上看到的要大。因此，如果所有這些都發生並且真正投入使用，我預計它會拉高成長率，比我們過去看到的要高一些。

But the one caution I would add is that what drives test again is transistor count, which we sometimes call complexity, but it's transistor count. And the capital intensity to build transistors at 3 nanometers and such on a per transistor basis, is getting to be quite high. So it may turn out that it takes more CapEx per transistor at some of these nodes than it has historically. So that could mute a little bit the cause and effect, if you follow what I'm saying. But overall, the big, big picture is, you're right, it's correlated. Maybe it's a year plus or minus 3 months delay.

但我要補充的一個警告是，再次推動測試的是晶體管數量，我們有時稱之為複雜性，但它是晶體管數量。以每個電晶體為基礎建構 3 奈米電晶體等的資本密集度變得相當高。因此，在某些節點上，每個電晶體的資本支出可能比歷史上更多。如果你照我說的去做的話，這可能會稍微減弱因果關係。但總的來說，大局是，你是對的，它是相關的。也許會延遲一年正負三個月。

Got it. And for my follow-up, maybe one for Sanjay on the cost and the operating leverage perspective. So on the cost side, are you seeing any rise in your input costs? And what are you doing in response? Are you passing those along? And will those be sticky over time? And then kind of part b of that, I think, Sanjay, you mentioned operating expenses could grow 17% to 19%. Do you think, when you grow OpEx that much, there is still leverage left in the model that could sales also grow in that neighborhood somewhere this year?

知道了。對於我的後續行動，也許是桑傑關於成本和營運槓桿角度的一個。那麼在成本方面，您是否看到投入成本上升？你正在做什麼回應？你正在傳遞那些嗎？隨著時間的推移，這些會變得黏稠嗎？然後，我認為 Sanjay，您提到營運費用可能會增加 17% 至 19%。您是否認為，當營運支出成長如此之多時，該模型中仍然存在槓桿作用，可以使該地區今年某個地方的銷售額也能成長？

Sure. So first on the cost of sales. Yes, we have seen certain cost increase. Raw materials, semiconductor components, et cetera. And fundamentally, we've been able to manage through those. And we expect, from a full year perspective, we'll be at model from a gross margin, 58% to 59%. And so we're just kind of managing through those cost increases. And from an operating expense perspective, yes, we are seeing a lower operating leverage in Q1, really some OpEx increases, but really throughout the year, you should expect to see us improve our operating leverage throughout the year.

當然。首先是銷售成本。是的，我們已經看到成本增加。原料、半導體元件等。從根本上來說，我們已經能夠應對這些挑戰。我們預計，從全年的角度來看，我們的毛利率將達到 58% 至 59%。因此，我們只是在應對這些成本增加。從營運費用的角度來看，是的，我們看到第一季的營運槓桿較低，營運支出確實有所增加，但實際上全年，您應該期望看到我們全年的營運槓桿有所改善。

Your next question is from Mehdi Hosseini with SIG.

您的下一個問題來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

Mark, I just want to go back to your earlier comment regarding transistor. It's interesting in your press release last night, you also talked about a smartphone unit as contributing to upside to SOC Test growth. So in that context, can you -- test growth. So in that context, can you please help us understand how smartphone unit growth and transistor density are driving the SOC Test growth? Or which one do you think is going to be a bigger factor this year versus 2020? And I have a follow-up.

馬克，我只想回到你之前關於晶體管的評論。有趣的是，您昨晚的新聞稿中還談到了智慧型手機單元對 SOC 測試成長的貢獻。因此，在這種情況下，您可以測試成長嗎？那麼在這種情況下，您能否幫助我們了解智慧型手機單位成長和電晶體密度如何推動 SOC 測試成長？或者您認為與 2020 年相比，今年哪一個因素會成為更大的因素？我有一個後續行動。

Okay. Good question. Obviously, they're related, they're correlated. But for example, in 2020, we saw a dramatic increase in the tester market when cell phone units weren't growing. And that was all driven by complexity growth. So you can see the power of complexity growth alone by examining 2020, it's big. Now in 2021, interestingly, we're getting a year where the, I would say, complexity growth of the silicon going into phones is less than it was in 2020, but that's been more than offset by the fact that units are going to grow. So now we have units working for us a little more in a year where complexity, it's going up, but not as dramatically as it did last year. So it's almost a multiplicative effect of the 2. And this year is really a story of both, but I'd say the -- without the unit growth, we would be looking at a smaller market, a smaller overall TAM than we're seeing.

好的。好問題。顯然，它們是相關的，它們是相關的。但例如，在 2020 年，我們看到測試器市場急劇成長，而手機銷售量卻沒有成長。這都是由複雜性成長所驅動的。因此，透過審視 2020 年，您就可以看到複雜性成長的力量，它是巨大的。有趣的是，到了 2021 年，我想說的是，手機晶片的複雜性增長低於 2020 年，但這已經被單位數量增長的事實所抵消。因此，現在我們有更多的單位為我們工作，複雜性在這一年裡有所上升，但沒有去年那麼顯著。所以這幾乎是 2 的乘法效應。

Got it. And just moving on to System Test. What is the mix between SLT and HDD? And how are each one of these 2 pieces growing on a year-over-year basis.

知道了。然後繼續進行系統測試。 SLT 和 HDD 之間的組合是什麼？這兩部分的逐年增長情況如何？

Yes. Mehdi, it's Sanjay here. It's roughly a 50-50 split, plus or minus a bit. And as Mark indicated, from an HDD perspective, really strong end market growth. And SLT, there's some investments going to expand that market. But we see growth in both.

是的。邁赫迪，我是桑傑。大約是 50-50 的分配，加減一點。正如馬克所指出的那樣，從硬碟的角度來看，終端市場成長確實強勁。 SLT，有一些投資將擴大該市場。但我們都看到了兩者的成長。

Your next question is from Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

您的下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

Mark, I wanted to ask about your market share traction in memory test. 2020 was a very strong year for you guys, particularly in DRAM package test. You talked about customer mix or spending mix this year driving maybe a little bit of a decline year-over-year. But in terms of customer pull and your expectations through cycle, what are you seeing in memory test right now?

馬克，我想問一下你們在記憶體測試中的市佔率牽引力。 2020 年對你們來說是非常強勁的一年，特別是在 DRAM 封裝測試方面。您談到今年的客戶組合或支出組合可能會導致同比略有下降。但就客戶拉力和您對整個週期的期望而言，您現在在記憶體測試中看到了什麼？

Yes. So memory test is strengthening. It's -- at the midpoint of the new market estimate, it will actually grow compared to last year, which again was a pretty good year. It's -- the sort of areas that are growing, some of them we're participating in and some of them we're not. So China is growing dramatically, and we're doing very well in China. So we're seeing good pickup there of the products in both flash and DRAM, and we're gaining market share.

是的。所以記憶力測驗正在加強。在新的市場估計的中點，與去年相比，它實際上會成長，這又是一個相當不錯的一年。這是一種正在成長的領域，其中一些我們正在參與，有些我們沒有參與。所以中國正在急劇成長，我們在中國做得很好。因此，我們看到快閃記憶體和 DRAM 產品都有良好的成長，並且我們正在獲得市場份額。

In other geographies where DRAM is growing, the piece of the DRAM market, final test for LPDDR5 that we targeted our new product for and have design wins, that's also looking very good and growing. But what's growing even faster is wafer test for DRAM, which is an area we really don't participate. It tends to be a low technology tester product that serves that market, it's not a big profit pool. And because of that, I alluded to the fact that our share might drop from 40%, 41% down to maybe 38%, 39% for the year.

在 DRAM 成長的其他地區，DRAM 市場的一部分，我們針對新產品進行的 LPDDR5 的最終測試，並取得了設計勝利，看起來也非常好並且正在成長。但成長更快的是 DRAM 晶圓測試，這是我們真正不參與的領域。它往往是服務該市場的低技術測試產品，利潤池並不大。因此，我提到今年我們的市佔率可能會從 40%、41% 下降到 38%、39%。

Got it. That's helpful. And then as a quick follow-up, I just wanted to go back to the AutoGuide reset. And sorry if I missed this, Mark, but what's changed in that business over the past 3 to 6 months? And perhaps more importantly, does this change how you think about your growth strategy or M&A strategy within overall IA?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後，作為快速跟進，我只想回到 AutoGuide 重置。如果我錯過了這一點，很抱歉，馬克，但是過去 3 到 6 個月該業務發生了哪些變化？也許更重要的是，這是否會改變您對整個 IA 中的成長策略或併購策略的看法？

Yes. It doesn't change anything about our thinking on M&A and growth strategy in IA, just to sort of take that one first. And over the course of many acquisitions we've done in the past 10 years, we've had various levels of success, I would say. The bigger acquisitions like the Nextest, the Eagles, the URs and the MiRs of the world have gone really, really well. And some of the smaller ones have taken longer to realize their potential than we expected at the beginning.

是的。它不會改變我們對 IA 併購和成長策略的思考，只是先考慮這一點。我想說，在過去十年中我們進行的許多收購中，我們取得了不同程度的成功。像 Nextest、Eagles、UR 和 MiR 這樣的大型收購進展得非常非常順利。一些較小的公司需要比我們一開始預期的更長的時間才能實現其潛力。

And so AutoGuide is a case where we're kind of in that same situation. We've -- We started out last year deploying the product into multiple big name, high potential accounts. And we're sort of a lily pad getting these initial deployments up and running. As we reflected back on where we stood, we were getting overextended on new accounts where the current accounts' potential could be jeopardized by not doing more to augment the product with the ability to dock into other factory automation systems that these customers are implementing. So we've just decided, let's retrench around the 5 or 6 big accounts we have today, get them rock solid, develop these linkages to warehouse automation, manufacturing systems, strengthen our linkage to our MiR product line, so we have more of a seamless connection there. And just grow within those accounts and then go on to a more expansive footprint.

AutoGuide 就是我們處於同樣情況的一個例子。我們從去年開始將產品部署到多個知名、高潛力的客戶。我們就像一片睡蓮，負責啟動並執行這些初始部署。當我們反思我們的立場時，我們在新帳戶上過度擴張，如果不採取更多措施來增強產品與這些客戶正在實施的其他工廠自動化系統的對接能力，經常帳戶的潛力可能會受到損害。所以我們只是決定，讓我們縮減目前擁有的 5 到 6 個大客戶，讓它們堅如磐石，開發與倉庫自動化、製造系統的聯繫，加強與 MiR 產品線的聯繫，這樣我們就有更多那裡無縫連接。然後在這些客戶中成長，然後繼續擴大足跡。

So it's absolutely not what we planned a year ago when we acquired AutoGuide. But in the light of today, the opportunity looks so large that we think we're better off doing -- taking this tack than just trying to proliferate more and more accounts.

所以這絕對不是我們一年前收購 AutoGuide 時的計畫。但從今天來看，這個機會看起來如此之大，以至於我們認為我們最好採取這種策略，而不是只是試圖增加越來越多的帳戶。

Your next question is from John Pitzer with Crédit Suisse.

您的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸銀行的約翰‧皮策 (John Pitzer)。

Congratulations on the solid results. Sanjay, I just want to go back to your commentaries around supply constraints and duration. It sounds like from your prepared remarks, that this is going to last at least into the calendar third quarter. Do things get worse from here? Is there any way to quantify the impact it's having to your revenue? And usually, when customers can't get what they want, they tend to order more than they need. So how are you safeguarding against the inevitable sort of double ordering and excess build out?

祝賀取得了紮實的成果。 Sanjay，我只想回顧一下您對供應限制和持續時間的評論。從您準備好的發言來看，這似乎將持續至少到日曆第三季。事情從這裡開始變得更糟嗎？有什麼方法可以量化它對您的收入的影響嗎？通常，當顧客得不到他們想要的東西時，他們往往會訂購超出他們需要的東西。那麼，您如何防範不可避免的雙重訂購和過度擴建呢？

Yes, great question. So we are seeing shortages, and we've been able to -- through our inventory strategies as well as multiple suppliers been able to work through them. Fundamentally, in the rise of the demand in 2020 and through COVID and then in 2021 in Q1. We're seeing it in Q2, and we see it getting -- supply getting tighter. We're seeing lead times increase from our suppliers across the board. And we're booked out pretty much for the year. And we're -- as I said in my prepared remarks, we're spending more engineering dollars and qualifying different suppliers. So it is getting tighter as demand continues to increase throughout the year.

是的，很好的問題。因此，我們看到了短缺，並且我們已經能夠透過我們的庫存策略以及多個供應商來解決這些問題。從根本上講，需求將在 2020 年、新冠疫情期間以及 2021 年第一季出現成長。我們在第二季度看到了這種情況，而且我們看到供應變得越來越緊張。我們看到供應商的交貨時間全面增加。今年我們的房間已經訂滿了。正如我在準備好的演講中所說，我們正在花費更多的工程資金並對不同的供應商進行資格認證。因此，隨著全年需求持續增加，供應變得越來越緊張。

And Q2, we feel pretty good about where we're at and the range. Of course, there's always things we're managing. And -- but Q3, we see it getting tighter. Visibility, we have good visibility into Q3, some issues we're working through. And then Q4, the visibility, obviously, further out, it goes down. I'd say on the duplicate orders perspective, I don't really see in the demand statement a whole set of duplication of orders. We're working with our customers, we're understanding their specific needs and working to get them what they need and just working through that.

第二季度，我們對自己所處的位置和範圍感覺非常好。當然，我們總是在管理一些事情。而且 - 但第三季度，我們看到它變得更加緊張。可見性，我們對第三季有很好的了解，我們正在解決一些問題。然後第四季度，可見度顯然會進一步下降。我想說，從重複訂單的角度來看，我在需求聲明中並沒有真正看到一整套重複訂單。我們正在與客戶合作，了解他們的具體需求，並努力滿足他們的需求，並努力解決這個問題。

That's helpful. And then, Mark, as my follow-up, clearly, a lot of conversation coming out of Washington about trying to get more domestic front end production inside the U.S. If the goal here is to kind of secure the supply chain, it seems kind of silly to build a wafer here that you have to then ship over to Asia to test and package. I'm just kind of curious from your perspective, are you seeing any drive towards sort of regionalization of test capacity, what might that mean for your business in the future? And maybe beyond even Semi Test, are you seeing across other supply chains, sort of a redomiciling of that supply chain that might actually help your IA business.

這很有幫助。然後，馬克，作為我的後續行動，顯然，華盛頓有很多關於試圖在美國境內進行更多國內前端生產的對話。然後將其運送到亞洲進行測試和封裝是愚蠢的。我只是從您的角度很好奇，您是否看到了測試能力區域化的任何推動力，這對您未來的業務意味著什麼？也許除了半測試之外，您是否看到其他供應鏈，某種供應鏈的重新定位，可能實際上有助於您的 IA 業務。

Yes. So I think there's a lot in what you just said that's interesting and also possibly a deterrent to these regional fabs because a regional fab is, in my view, meaningless without the associated infrastructure around it, including test, supply of the chemistry. The local supply thing makes the whole venture economical. And as an alternative to doing everything in Taiwan, if you want to do in the U.S. or Japan or Europe, you really need a competitive infrastructure to get it done. So it will necessarily require test if it's not going to be an orphan.

是的。因此，我認為您剛才所說的有很多內容很有趣，也可能對這些區域晶圓廠構成威懾，因為在我看來，如果沒有周圍的相關基礎設施，包括測試和化學品供應，區域晶圓工廠就毫無意義。本地供應使整個企業變得經濟。如果你想在美國、日本或歐洲做所有事情，而不是在台灣做所有事情，你確實需要一個有競爭力的基礎設施來完成它。因此，如果它不是孤兒，就必須進行測試。

And I'm a little bit skeptical, will all of these jurisdictions have the 10-year sort of intestinal fortitude to move forward and invest in that kind of infrastructure build-out. But I think in the U.S. case, my read is that the answer is probably yes. The national security issues, there's just a lot behind this that suggests it's probably going to happen. And in the case of test and robots as well, I think the fracturing of the supply chain to be more geographically disperse, on the one hand, maybe for a global economy is a little bad because it creates some inefficiency in the market, but for a supplier of equipment into that market, it's a helpful, it's a tailwind. And so I do think you're going to find probably globally a little bit less utilization efficiency of equipment because of this trend.

我有點懷疑，所有這些司法管轄區是否都具有 10 年的毅力來前進並投資於此類基礎設施建設。但我認為就美國的情況而言，我的解讀是答案可能是肯定的。國家安全問題，這背後有許多因素表明它可能會發生。就測試和機器人而言，我認為供應鏈的斷裂在地理上更加分散，一方面，也許對於全球經濟來說有點糟糕，因為它會造成市場效率低下，但對於設備供應商進入該市場，這是一種幫助，也是一種順風。因此，我確實認為，由於這種趨勢，您可能會發現全球設備的利用率下降。

But the national instincts around secure supply chains are going to overdrive that and probably subsidize it to some level. And I think both of our businesses will be a beneficiary of that.

但圍繞安全供應鏈的國家本能將過度推動這一趨勢，並可能在某種程度上對其進行補貼。我認為我們兩家公司都將受益於此。

Your next question is from Timothy Arcuri with UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的 Timothy Arcuri。

I guess, a couple of things. First, Mark, I think you said that compute -- so I guess my question really is for you to break down what the Semi Test TAM, if I take your $4.2 billion midpoint this year for SOC, I'm just wondering if you can break that down. I think you had said last year of the $3.45 billion, it was like $600 million compute. And so I'm wondering, out of the $800 million that's going to grow this year from $3.45 billion up to $4.2 billion, I'm wondering if you can kind of break that down. It sounds like most of it's compute because you said compute is going to double from $600 million last year. But I'm just wondering if you can sort of reset the segments for us as well.

我想，有幾件事。首先，馬克，我想你說過計算——所以我想我的問題實際上是讓你分解一下半測試TAM，如果我把你今年42 億美元的SOC 中點計算出來，我只是想知道你是否可以打破它。我想你去年說過 34.5 億美元相當於 6 億美元的計算資金。所以我想知道，在今年將從 34.5 億美元成長到 42 億美元的 8 億美元中，我想知道你是否可以將其細分。聽起來大部分都是計算費用，因為你說計算費用將從去年的 6 億美元增加一倍。但我只是想知道您是否也可以為我們重置這些片段。

Yes. I'll give you some rough numbers, but take it a little bit with a grain of salt because here we are 3 months later, talking about a big revision to our view of what the market size is. So I don't profess to be overly wise on this. But our current view on compute would be about $1 billion-ish market this year, for example. So not quite doubling. It's only -- the year is not even halfway over, so who knows what could happen, but that's our current view. Mobility compared to last year is probably flattish, could be down a little bit compared to last year. The one part of mobility we haven't talked about that of all the places that are surging for demand, there is a pocket where demand is softer this year, and that's in millimeter wave test capability.

是的。我會給你一些粗略的數字，但請對此持保留態度，因為 3 個月後，我們正在談論對市場規模看法的重大修正。所以我並不認為我在這方面過於明智。但我們目前對計算市場的看法是，今年的市場規模約為 10 億美元。所以還沒有翻倍。只是——今年還沒有過半，所以誰知道會發生什麼，但這就是我們目前的觀點。與去年相比，流動性可能持平，甚至可能略有下降。我們還沒有談到移動性的一部分，在所有需求激增的地方中，今年有一個需求疲軟的地方，那就是毫米波測試能力。

And last year, there was a lot of tooling for millimeter wave as some of the phones were early adopters of millimeter wave technology. But the fact of the matter is that telcos globally aren't deploying millimeter wave to any large extent. Spotty deployment in the U.S. and almost nothing outside of the U.S. And so that's suppressing demand this year for millimeter wave test equipment. That makes the -- is a little bit of a headwind for the mobility market. So call it flat to slightly down in mobility at about -- let's say, it's about $1.6 billion or $1.65 billion or so.

去年，由於一些手機是毫米波技術的早期採用者，因此出現了許多毫米波工具。但事實是，全球電信公司並未大規模部署毫米波。在美國的部署參差不齊，在美國以外幾乎沒有部署，因此這抑制了今年對毫米波測試設備的需求。這對行動市場來說有點不利。因此，我們可以說流動性持平或略有下降，約為 16 億美元或 16.5 億美元左右。

The automotive and MCU market is closer to $450 million for the year. That's up from about $225 million last year. So big, big jump there. And the last segment that we sort of track is industrial, and that one is up to about $500 million from maybe $340 million, $325 million last year. So that's how we segment it right now.

今年汽車和 MCU 市場接近 4.5 億美元。這比去年的約 2.25 億美元有所增加。那裡跳得那麼大、那麼大。我們追蹤的最後一個領域是工業領域，該領域的規模從去年的 3.4 億美元、3.25 億美元增加到約 5 億美元。這就是我們現在對其進行細分的方式。

Awesome. Awesome. And then I guess I just wanted to maybe push back a little bit on the correlation between WFE and Test TAM. It's been a little more consistent in memory the past couple of years. Of course, when you get these big pricing swings, that's going to probably go away. But on the SOC side, wouldn't you agree, your big customer is a significantly larger portion of the SOC Test TAM than they are of consumption in the front end non-memory WFE world. So doesn't the SOC market depend a lot more on what the large customer is doing in the test world than in the WFE world. So the correlation in SOC could sort of break down a bit because of what the large customer is doing. And I guess on that point, they've never been good 3 years in a row, not once, and this is the second big year. So how do you handicap the odds that next year is a big down year and that works against you in terms of share, even if the market doesn't come down that much.

驚人的。驚人的。然後我想我只是想稍微推遲一下 WFE 和 Test TAM 之間的相關性。在過去的幾年裡，它在記憶中更加一致了。當然，當價格大幅波動時，這種情況可能就會消失。但在 SOC 方面，您是否同意，您的大客戶在 SOC 測試 TAM 中所佔的比例明顯大於前端非記憶體 WFE 世界中的消耗量。因此，與 WFE 領域相比，SOC 市場不是更依賴大客戶在測試領域所做的事情嗎？因此，由於大客戶正在做的事情，SOC 的相關性可能會有點崩潰。我想在這一點上，他們從來沒有連續三年表現出色，一次也沒有，而今年是第二個重要的一年。那麼，即使市場下跌幅度不大，您如何降低明年大幅下跌的可能性，這對您的份額不利。

All right. A lot in there, Tim, but I'll try to take it on. So your point about the large customer or our large customer never having sort of as a proportion of our revenue, 3 big years in a row, I think there's truth to that, but there's also a difference in what's happening because the portfolio there is growing. If you go back to the sort of 2014, '15 -- '13, '14, '15, '16 area, it was kind of one device type that was driving the story and the demand. And now we're into a much broader portfolio than that. So I would just offer that, that dynamic's changed. And that's a fact that could propel this more sequential growth for a longer period of time.

好的。提姆，裡面有很多東西，但我會盡力承擔。因此，您關於大客戶或我們的大客戶連續三年從未占我們收入的比例的觀點，我認為這是事實，但所發生的情況也存在差異，因為那裡的投資組合正在增長。如果你回到 2014 年的那種 '15 - '13、'14、'15、'16 區域，就會發現這是一種推動故事和需求的設備類型。現在我們的投資組合比這更廣泛。所以我只想說，這種動態已經改變了。這一事實可能會在更長的時間內推動這種連續增長。

On the correlation between WFE, Test -- SOC Test demand and whether that's stronger than who's buying, let's say, big -- certainly, customers have different test intensities. And so part of the noise that's running under the hood, certainly as it relates to our revenue, is related to large high test intensity customers and how much they're buying. We're fortunate that we participate in segments of the market that tend to have high test intensities, but that's by design. We target those segments. And it's not just one large customer that produces devices that have high test intensity. There's others, and that's where we play.

關於 WFE、測試（SOC 測試需求）之間的相關性以及是否比購買者更強（比如說，大），當然，客戶有不同的測試強度。因此，引擎蓋下運行的部分噪音，當然與我們的收入有關，與大量高測試強度客戶以及他們的購買量有關。我們很幸運，我們參與的市場區隔往往具有高測試強度，但這是設計使然。我們的目標是這些細分市場。生產具有高測試強度的設備的不僅是一家大客戶。還有其他的，那就是我們玩的地方。

So I would agree with you that if the market shifted away from high test intensity customers, meaning high complexity devices, you could see a disconnect, an anchor on the test market that was disconnected from WFE. But it just doesn't seem likely because the reason these investments are being made in the front end and the reason they're so expensive to make is that they're going after 3-nanometer EUV lines to build devices for these very customers we're talking about. So I just don't see that the disconnect can emerge unless the fabs sit idle. If the fabs are going to sit idle, yes. But if the fabs aren't going to be idle, it's the exact customers we're talking about that are going to utilize them. So I don't disabuse your point. It actually has some merit, but I just think the correlation, almost by definition, has to occur unless the fabs are idle.

因此，我同意您的觀點，如果市場從高測試強度客戶（即高複雜性設備）轉移，您可能會看到一種脫節，即測試市場上與 WFE 脫節的錨點。但這似乎不太可能，因為這些投資是在前端進行的，而且製造成本如此之高，是因為他們正在追求 3 奈米 EUV 生產線，為我們這些客戶建造設備。因此，我認為除非晶圓廠閒置，否則不會出現脫節。如果晶圓廠要閒置，是的。但如果晶圓廠不會閒置，那麼我們所說的正是客戶將利用它們。所以我不會反駁你的觀點。它實際上有一些優點，但我只是認為這種相關性，幾乎按照定義，必須發生，除非晶圓廠閒置。

Your next question is from Krish Sankar with Cowen.

您的下一個問題來自 Krish Sankar 和 Cowen。

And Mark, thanks for the color on the SOC Test. I just wanted to like focus on the compute test market. And it looks like you said it's going from $600 million to $1 billion. Is the incremental growth all coming from custom silicon? And if that is the case, can you just tell us how much your market share in compute was last year? And how much do you think it's going to be this year? And then I have a follow-up.

馬克，感謝 SOC 測試中的顏色。我只是想專注於計算測試市場。看起來你說的將從 6 億美元增加到 10 億美元。增量成長全部來自於客製化晶片嗎？如果是這樣，您能告訴我們去年您在計算領域的市場份額是多少嗎？您認為今年會是多少？然後我有一個後續行動。

Yes. So most of the growth is, I would say, coming -- what, is it non-custom-silicon, I couldn't say that. No, I think growth is coming from the nontraditional suppliers of compute devices, is a disproportionate amount of it. But the other usual suspects are growing too. AMD, obviously, is growing. And NVIDIA is obviously growing. So it's broad-based. But as a proportion, I'd say, yes, you're right. It's probably some of the newer players that are growing the market faster than others. And as to our share position, historically, our share in compute has been below our overall market share. So maybe in the 30s, and it moves around in the 30s, is where it's been.

是的。所以我想說，大部分成長即將到來——什麼，是非客製化矽，我不能這麼說。不，我認為成長來自非傳統的計算設備供應商，而且其中的成長量不成比例。但其他常見的嫌疑犯也在成長。顯然，AMD 正在成長。 NVIDIA 顯然正在成長。所以它的基礎廣泛。但從比例來看，我會說，是的，你是對的。可能是一些新玩家的市場成長速度比其他玩家更快。至於我們的份額地位，從歷史上看，我們在計算領域的份額一直低於我們的整體市場份額。所以也許在 30 年代，它一直在 30 年代左右移動。

This -- we're trending into a period of time because of this change of who's building these devices where our share is more likely to move up closer to our overall average share in the market. So if our SOC average share is somewhere in the 50-ish percent range, it might take a little bit of time, but that's kind of where we're trending to.

由於製造這些設備的人發生了變化，我們正進入一段時期，我們的份額更有可能接近我們在市場上的整體平均份額。因此，如果我們的 SOC 平均份額在 50% 左右的範圍內，可能需要一點時間，但這就是我們的趨勢。

Got it. Got it. That's really helpful, Mark. And then just a follow-up. I think you made a comment that you're kind of booked out for the rest of the year. Is that a Semi Test and a Storage Test comment? And if so, should we assume that you would not see seasonality in the back half or in Q4 because the demand is strong. Or in other words, is your Q2 Semi Test revenue run rate sustainable?

知道了。知道了。這真的很有幫助，馬克。然後只是後續行動。我想你曾說過今年剩餘時間的時間都被預訂滿了。這是半測試和儲存測試評論嗎？如果是這樣，我們是否應該假設您不會在下半年或第四季度看到季節性，因為需求強勁。或者換句話說，您的第二季半測試收入運行率是否可持續？

It's Sanjay. So I made the comment that we were booked out, and it was really tied to our supply perspective. We're working with our -- both contract manufacturers and our direct suppliers to fundamentally make sure that we have orders on the books until the end of the year, just given the supply constraints in the environment.

這是桑傑。所以我評論說我們已經被預訂滿了，這確實與我們的供應角度有關。考慮到環境中的供應限制，我們正在與合約製造商和直接供應商合作，從根本上確保我們的訂單到年底為止。

Your next question is from Brian Chin with Stifel.

您的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Brian Chin。

First, on the Semi Test business, I definitely respect that visibility in this or any year has limitations. But if I do take the midpoint of your new expectations for the test markets, take your market share projection and assume the majority of the second quarter growth will be Semi Test driven. I think I'd back into about a 10% or so sales decline in Semi Test in the second half of the year, am I kind of in the ballpark here? And to what extent is your backlog coverage supportive of this?

首先，在半測試業務上，我絕對尊重今年或任何一年的可見度都是有限的。但如果我確實採用您對測試市場的新預期的中點，則採用您的市佔率預測，並假設第二季的大部分成長將由半測試驅動。我認為下半年半測試的銷售額會下降 10% 左右，我的情況是否還算正常？您的積壓工作覆蓋範圍在多大程度上支持這一點？

Yes. When you take a look at the numbers, that's a -- we do -- overall, maybe I'll comment overall, we are expecting to see, given the visibility and obviously, with a significant reset of the market size, and as we move throughout the year, the lack of visibility in the second half. But with all of those provisions, we are seeing overall an expectation that the second half of the year revenue will be slightly down, both for the enterprise and that's a similar direction down for Semi Test.

是的。當你看一下這些數字時，我們確實這樣做了，總的來說，也許我會總體評論一下，鑑於可見性，顯然，市場規模將發生重大調整，我們預計會看到這一點，而且隨著我們的全年走勢不佳，下半年缺乏可見性。但考慮到所有這些規定，我們總體預計今年下半年的收入將略有下降，無論是對於企業還是半測試來說，這都是類似的下降方向。

Got it. Got it. And then maybe just on the Industrial Automation business, and sorry if I missed some of this, but I definitely heard about China as a geography showing strong year-over-year growth. A lot of growth in MiR and a snapback in the UR business as well. Can you characterize maybe Europe and North America, obviously, clear key markets as well. Sort of where are they in terms of their snapping back relative to where you might expect them to get this year?

知道了。知道了。然後也許只是關於工業自動化業務，如果我錯過了其中一些，我很抱歉，但我確實聽說過中國作為一個顯示出強勁的同比增長的地區。 MiR 實現了大幅成長，UR 業務也出現了快速回升。您能否描述一下歐洲和北美的特點，顯然，它們也有明確的關鍵市場。相對於你今年的預期，他們的反彈程度如何？

Yes. It's Sanjay. Yes. So from a U.S. perspective, we are seeing the snapback, whether you look at increases over Q1 of '19, pre-COVID year or even Q1 of '20. Similar with Europe, a very strong kind of double-digit snapback over either year.

是的。這是桑傑。是的。因此，從美國的角度來看，無論你看的是 19 年第一季、新冠疫情爆發前的年份還是 20 年第一季的成長，我們都看到了經濟的快速回升。與歐洲類似，每年都會出現非常強勁的兩位數反彈。

Your next question is from Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley.

您的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的喬·摩爾。

I wonder if you could talk about in the automotive and the broader markets, the degree to which test is one of the bottlenecks they're dealing with? Like we hear about shortages on wafers packaging, a little bit test. Just how severe do you think you're bottlenecking them? And then when you look at a 90% comparison in auto, it would seem like there's some catch-up in that, like does that create sustainability risk in your mind maybe next year?

我想知道您是否可以談談在汽車和更廣泛的市場中，測試在多大程度上是他們正在處理的瓶頸之一？就像我們聽說晶圓包裝短缺一樣，進行一點測試。您認為您對他們造成的瓶頸有多嚴重？然後，當您查看汽車領域 90% 的比較時，似乎存在一些追趕，例如這是否會在您的腦海中產生明年的可持續發展風險？

Yes. I think the big, big issue is wafers, not tests in terms of bottlenecking the automotive manufacturers. That doesn't mean that we're completely aligned on deliveries for test equipment to the chip suppliers who are trying to ramp shipments. We are misaligned by a few weeks here and there. And we're pulling like mad and they're pulling like mad. But the big, big, bigger issue is getting wafer capacity. So no big -- we're not in the headlights quite yet, but we're certainly in tense conversations to try to pick up a week or 2 here or there so that they can get a little bit more out a week or so sooner.

是的。我認為最大的問題是晶圓，而不是阻礙汽車製造商的測試。這並不意味著我們在向試圖增加出貨量的晶片供應商交付測試設備方面完全一致。我們到處都有幾週的偏差。我們瘋狂地拉扯，他們也瘋狂地拉扯。但最大、更大、更大的問題是晶圓產能的增加。所以沒什麼大不了的——我們還沒有受到關注，但我們肯定處於緊張的對話中，試圖在這裡或那裡爭取一兩週的時間，以便他們可以在一周左右更快地獲得更多信息。

Great. And how many absolute level you have?

偉大的。你的絕對等級是多少？

The sustainability of -- automotive always kind of goes in fits and starts. And I think the supply chain in automotive is going to come out of this, having learned a lesson that they can't be so lean on just in time. And I know that raises the specter of everybody's worry that there's inventory being going to be built in addition to real line demand. And I think that will happen. That's certainly not happening yet, that's to come. So there's going to be a phase here where we get through the urgency, then there will be investments made to build more, I'd say, slack in the system for the devices that go into automotives.

汽車的可持續性總是時斷時續。我認為汽車產業的供應鏈將會從中吸取教訓，他們不能及時依賴這項教訓。我知道這引起了每個人的擔憂，除了實際的生產線需求之外，還會增加庫存。我認為這將會發生。這肯定還沒有發生，那將會發生。因此，我們將會經歷一個階段，克服緊迫性，然後進行投資，為汽車設備建立更多的系統。

So that will be a bit of a balloon. But then it will settle back to, I think, its normal rhythm, where increasing electronic and chip attach rates in automobiles will drive the market. And we're going to get to kind of a peak level of test investment in automotive this year, close to that $500 million number. And that could even -- certainly, I think it could sustain through the end of the year because of this inventory catch up. But my guess is as we get into the 2022 area and beyond, it'll sort of back into oscillating between the $300 million to $500 million rate.

所以這會有點像氣球。但我認為，隨後它將回到正常節奏，汽車中電子和晶片附加率的增加將推動市場。今年我們在汽車領域的測試投資將達到最高水平，接近 5 億美元。當然，我認為由於庫存的增加，這種情況甚至可以持續到今年年底。但我的猜測是，當我們進入 2022 年及以後的地區時，它會回到 3 億美元到 5 億美元之間振盪。

Your next question is from Blake Gendron with Wolfe Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Blake Gendron。

I want to come back to the arm's SOC commentary, not from a market share perspective, but rather the complexity discussion. Because as we've seen large customers accelerating this arm's rollout here a bit. So it seems like the architecture consolidates the number of wafers for various compute functions, simplify the circuit a bit. So share opportunities notwithstanding, I'm wondering what the complexity in test intensity puts and takes are with this arms trend specifically?

我想回到arm的SOC評論，不是從市場佔有率的角度，而是從複雜性的討論。因為正如我們所看到的，大客戶正在加速該手臂的推出。因此，該架構似乎整合了用於各種運算功能的晶圓數量，稍微簡化了電路。因此，儘管分享機會，但我想知道這種武器趨勢的測試強度的複雜性是什麼？

Yes. That's a little tricky. So first of all, let me say that most of the applications processors in your phone, which is a $1.5 billion -- 1.5 billion unit market are arm-based processors. And those devices in the high-end phones, which comprise maybe 400 million to 500 million units out of the 1.5 billion, have transistor counts on par with any desktop or laptop computer you might buy. 10 billion-plus kind of transistors. So the test -- when you look at the test intensity there compared to a traditional microprocessor, it's a little bit more efficient, I would say, than a traditional microprocessor, but not a lot more efficient. So for the same, let's say, 10 billion transistor x86 architecture compared to a map device in your phone, maybe it's at 90% versus 100% kind of test time delta, so not big.

是的。這有點棘手。首先，我要說的是，手機中的大多數應用程式處理器（這是一個價值 15 億美元、15 億台的市場）都是基於 ARM 的處理器。高階手機中的這些裝置（這 15 億部中可能有 4 億到 5 億部）的電晶體數量與您可能購買的任何桌上型電腦或筆記型電腦相當。超過 100 億個電晶體。因此，當您查看與傳統微處理器相比的測試強度時，我想說，它比傳統微處理器更有效率，但效率並沒有高很多。因此，對於同樣的情況，比如說，100 億個電晶體的 x86 架構與手機中的地圖設備相比，可能是 90% 與 100% 的測試時間增量，所以並不大。

Now when you get into arm-based compute devices for more non-phone applications, there's different cash requirements, different IO technologies needed that further complexify the arm implementation that bring it back up to test intensities very similar to the x86 world. So I don't see a big difference there.

現在，當您進入基於ARM 的運算設備來實現更多非電話應用程式時，就會有不同的現金需求，需要不同的IO 技術，這些都進一步複雜化了ARM 的實現，使其恢復到與x86 世界非常相似的測試強度。所以我看不出有什麼大的差別。

That's really helpful. And then a follow-up on Industrial Automation. You noted peripheral services that demand additional software apps and likely hardware. We've seen a bit of proliferation of companies that are attacking things like computer vision, machine learning, other AI capabilities. So wondering what kind of artificial intelligence capabilities Teradyne has in IA to keep up with these trends. It seems like robotics peers, both large and small, are really descending on the cobot space here. Or could this be a focus of M&A moving forward?

這真的很有幫助。然後是工業自動化的後續內容。您注意到需要額外的軟體應用程式和可能的硬體的外圍服務。我們看到越來越多的公司正在攻擊電腦視覺、機器學習和其他人工智慧功能。因此想知道泰瑞達在 IA 方面擁有什麼樣的人工智慧能力來跟上這些趨勢。看起來機器人同行，無論大小，都真正降臨到這裡的協作機器人領域。或者這可能成為未來併購的重點？

So certainly in our M&A funnel, there's various opportunities like that. But what I would say is that many of the startups in the IA and machine learning space that are exploring ways to enhance robots, cobots, are doing it on our platform as a partner. If you go into our -- again, UR+ ecosystem or a MiRGo ecosystem, you'll see a variety of machine learning and AI tools that have been targeted and customized for our products. So we're benefiting from them whether we own them or not. We do have organic IA products that we have on our MiR platform already. But it's going to be important for the evolution of ease of use and applications expansion for cobots, for sure. And whether we need to own it or whether we need to be the preferred platform that they all write their apps for, I think, is still kind of a case-by-case consideration for us.

因此，在我們的併購管道中，肯定存在著各種類似的機會。但我想說的是，IA 和機器學習領域的許多新創公司正在探索增強機器人、協作機器人的方法，它們正在作為合作夥伴在我們的平台上進行。如果您再次進入我們的 UR+ 生態系統或 MiRGo 生態系統，您將看到針對我們的產品量身定制的各種機器學習和人工智慧工具。因此，無論我們是否擁有它們，我們都可以從中受益。我們的 MiR 平台上確實有有機 IA 產品。但毫無疑問，這對於協作機器人易用性的發展和應用程式的擴展非常重要。我認為，我們是否需要擁有它，或者我們是否需要成為他們編寫應用程式的首選平台，這對我們來說仍然是一種具體情況的考慮。

We're just about at the limit, but we can sneak 1 quick question in, if you would, April, please.

我們已經達到極限了，但如果您願意，我們可以偷偷地問一個簡單的問題，April，謝謝。

Okay. And your last question is from Sidney Ho with Deutsche Bank.

好的。你的最後一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Sidney Ho。

Just can you give us an update on your revenue opportunity related to 5G for both SOC Test and LitePoint? And maybe in the 5G infrastructure side, are you seeing a recovery of that market in any regions right now?

您能否向我們介紹一下 SOC Test 和 LitePoint 與 5G 相關的收入機會的最新情況？也許在 5G 基礎設施方面，您現在是否看到任何地區的市場正在復甦？

Yes. I think infrastructure is really not driving much tester demand generally. It did for us back in 2019 when China was going crazy, rolling out sub-6G and Huawei was investing heavily at the time. But the kind of what is now a $5 billion tester market, infrastructure, 5G investments are, I think, always going to be sub-$100 million and maybe more in the sort of $60 million to $70 million range. The bigger one is what happens with the phones and the terminals and such. And there, the U.S., the spectrum auction around sub-6G is concluded. I think that carriers are kind of clearly going to roll that out as their next step.

是的。我認為基礎設施總體上並沒有推動太多測試儀需求。早在 2019 年，我們就做到了這一點，當時中國正在瘋狂推出 sub-6G，而華為當時正在大力投資。但我認為，現在 50 億美元的測試儀市場、基礎設施和 5G 投資始終會低於 1 億美元，甚至可能更多，在 6,000 萬至 7,000 萬美元之間。更大的問題是電話和終端機等發生的情況。在美國，圍繞 sub-6G 的頻譜拍賣已經結束。我認為運營商顯然會將其作為下一步推出。

That's, as I said earlier, going to suppress the demand for millimeter wave, which is the most test intensive portion of 5G. And so in the past calls, I've talked about LitePoint and Semi Test combined driving an incremental $400 million to $500 million worth of tester demand in the 5G era. And I think where we are in that now is we're probably in that $250 million to $300 million piece of it. And I think it's going to go sideways here for a while because of the fact that millimeter wave this year will be less probably investment than last year. And that will be the last kicker. Maybe it's still a couple of years out to bring it up to that full potential.

正如我之前所說，這將抑制對毫米波的需求，而毫米波是 5G 測試最密集的部分。因此，在過去的電話會議中，我談到了 LitePoint 和 Semi Test 的結合將在 5G 時代推動價值 4 億至 5 億美元的測試儀需求增量。我認為我們現在所處的位置是我們可能處於其中 2.5 億至 3 億美元的部分。我認為它將在一段時間內橫向波動，因為今年毫米波的投資可能性將低於去年。這將是最後的一步。也許還需要幾年的時間才能充分發揮潛力。

Great. Maybe just lastly on the System Level Test. What is the size of that market today? And how big could that be when those lower complexity devices that you alluded to start to come into the market? And maybe just a little bit on the competition side, how do you sustain your market share in that market?

偉大的。也許最後是系統級測試。如今該市場的規模有多大？當您提到的那些複雜性較低的設備開始進入市場時，這個規模會有多大？也許只是在競爭方面，您如何維持在該市場的市佔率？

Yes. I think the market is pretty thin. We don't have a good number to give you on market size. But I think if you look at us and Advantest, you can kind of get a general sense. We probably, again, have 80% of the market between us. There's some other bespoke custom products that certain suppliers provide, but that's the way you could get at the market. And Advantest and Teradyne are kind of, I think, both hard-core players here. We each have our own benefits. And as we said earlier, this additional test step that high complexity devices are requiring is likely to proliferate into other markets. But 2 things are kind of important. I think from like the automotive market, as an example, is a very high-quality demanding market. But the volumes, frankly, are relatively low compared to something like a phone, 100 million cars versus 1.5 billion phones.

是的。我認為市場相當薄弱。我們無法提供有關市場規模的具體數據。但我認為，如果您看看我們和 Advantest，您就會有一個大致的了解。我們可能再次擁有 80% 的市佔率。某些供應商還提供其他一些客製化產品，但這就是您可以進入市場的方式。我認為 Advantest 和 Teradyne 都是這裡的硬派玩家。我們每個人都有自己的好處。正如我們之前所說，高複雜性設備所需的這個額外測試步驟可能會擴散到其他市場。但有兩件事很重要。我覺得以像汽車市場為例，是一個對品質要求非常高的市場。但坦白說，與手機之類的東西相比，數量相對較低，1 億輛汽車與 15 億部手機相比。

So for a market like that with lower volume devices to take advantage of SLT, which they would love to, we need a different architecture that we're developing to address these, I'd say, higher mix, lower volume markets. And I think our position and the sustainability of this is pretty good. It's like semiconductor tests, where the changeover costs are pretty high. Once you're in, somebody else has really got to have a better mousetrap by a long shot to sort of dislodge you.

因此，對於像這樣的市場，他們希望利用低容量設備來利用 SLT，我們需要開發不同的架構來解決這些，我想說的是，更高混合度、低容量市場。我認為我們的地位和永續性非常好。這就像半導體測試，轉換成本相當高。一旦你進去了，其他人就必須有一個更好的捕鼠器來把你趕走。

Okay. We are out of time. Thanks so much for joining us today, and we look forward to talking to you in the days and weeks ahead. Thanks, again. Bye-bye.

好的。我們沒時間了。非常感謝您今天加入我們，我們期待在未來的幾天和幾週內與您交談。再次感謝。再見。