泰瑞達 (TER) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

Year 2022 conference call. (Operator Instructions)

2022 年電話會議。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to hand the call over to Andy Blanchard. Please go ahead.

我現在想把電話交給安迪布蘭查德。請繼續。

Thank you, Latif. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our discussion of Teradyne's most recent financial results. I'm joined this morning by our CFO -- CEO, Mark Jagiela; President, Greg Smith; and CFO, Sanjay Mehta. Following our opening remarks, we'll provide details of our performance for 2022's second quarter, along with our outlook for the third quarter of '22.

謝謝你，拉蒂夫。大家早上好，歡迎來到我們關於泰瑞達最新財務業績的討論。今天早上，我們的首席財務官——首席執行官 Mark Jagiela 加入了我的行列；總裁，格雷格·史密斯；和首席財務官 Sanjay Mehta。在我們的開場白之後，我們將提供我們 2022 年第二季度業績的詳細信息，以及我們對 22 年第三季度的展望。

The press release containing our second quarter results was issued last evening. We're providing slides on the Investor page of the website that may be helpful to you in following the discussion. Replays of this call will be available via the same page after the call ends.

包含我們第二季度業績的新聞稿於昨晚發布。我們在網站的投資者頁面上提供了幻燈片，可能對您進行討論有所幫助。通話結束後，將通過同一頁面重播此通話。

The matters that we discuss today will include forward-looking statements that involve risk factors that could cause Teradyne's results to differ materially from management's current expectations. We encourage you to review the safe harbor statement contained in the earnings release as well as our most recent SEC filings. Additionally, those forward-looking statements are made as of today, and we take no obligation to update them as a result of developments occurring after this call.

我們今天討論的事項將包括涉及風險因素的前瞻性陳述，這些風險因素可能導致泰瑞達的業績與管理層當前的預期存在重大差異。我們鼓勵您查看收益發布中包含的安全港聲明以及我們最近提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件。此外，這些前瞻性陳述是在今天做出的，我們沒有義務因為這次電話會議後發生的事態發展而對其進行更新。

During today's call, we'll make reference to non-GAAP financial measures. We've posted additional information concerning these non-GAAP financial measures, including reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure where available on the Investor page of the website.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將參考非 GAAP 財務指標。我們已經發布了有關這些非 GAAP 財務指標的更多信息，包括與網站投資者頁面上最直接可比的 GAAP 財務指標的對賬。

Looking ahead between now and our next earnings call, Teradyne expects to participate in technology or industrial-focused investor conferences hosted by KeyBanc, Davidson, Jefferies, Deutsche Bank, Citi, Evercore, Piper Sandler and Goldman Sachs.

展望從現在到我們的下一次財報電話會議，泰瑞達預計將參加由 KeyBanc、戴維森、傑富瑞、德意志銀行、花旗、Evercore、派珀桑德勒和高盛主辦的以技術或工業為重點的投資者會議。

Now let's get on with the rest of the agenda. First, Mark and Greg will comment on our recent results and the market conditions as we enter the new quarter. Sanjay will then offer more details on our quarterly results along with our guidance for the third quarter. We'll then answer your questions, and this call is scheduled for 1 hour.

現在讓我們繼續議程的其餘部分。首先，馬克和格雷格將在我們進入新季度時評論我們最近的業績和市場狀況。然後，桑傑將提供有關我們季度業績的更多細節以及我們對第三季度的指導。然後我們將回答您的問題，本次電話會議時間為 1 小時。

Mark?

標記？

Hello, everyone, and thanks for joining us. Greg will summarize our Q2 results, and I'll comment on the full year outlook and technology drivers we expect in 2023. Sanjay will then take you through the financial details, including our outlook for the third quarter. Greg?

大家好，感謝您加入我們。 Greg 將總結我們的第二季度業績，我將評論我們預計 2023 年的全年展望和技術驅動因素。然後，Sanjay 將帶您了解財務細節，包括我們對第三季度的展望。格雷格？

Thanks, Mark, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝，馬克，大家早上好。

Teradyne's second quarter sales and profits were above the midpoint of our guidance in revenue and profit with sales of $841 million and $1.21 in non-GAAP earnings per share. From a market perspective, we're seeing mixed signals. While the pressure to improve lead times in some Test markets is as strong as ever, and we continue to work through supply issues, we have seen some softening in mobility demand, our largest Test market.

泰瑞達第二季度的銷售額和利潤高於我們的收入和利潤指引的中點，銷售額為 8.41 億美元，非公認會計準則每股收益為 1.21 美元。從市場的角度來看，我們看到了喜憂參半的信號。雖然在某些測試市場中改善交貨時間的壓力一如既往地強大，而且我們繼續解決供應問題，但我們看到移動需求有所減弱，這是我們最大的測試市場。

Also, it now looks like IA growth in the second half will be similar to first half growth.

此外，現在看起來下半年的 IA 增長將與上半年的增長相似。

In today's call, we'll try to provide some context on how we're navigating this complex environment. Diving into the details of the second quarter. Semiconductor Test revenues were in line with our plan as were profits. The Automotive and Industrial end markets served by our Eagle platform were notably strong in the quarter.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將嘗試提供一些關於我們如何在這個複雜環境中導航的背景信息。深入了解第二季度的細節。半導體測試的收入和利潤都符合我們的計劃。我們的 Eagle 平台服務的汽車和工業終端市場在本季度表現尤為強勁。

In Memory, Flash final Test and DRAM wafer sort was the strongest markets. From a strategic perspective, Semi Test had a strong quarter of competitive design wins for both R&D applications and for devices that we expect to ramp in volume production over the next year or so. The design wins were in a wide range of end markets. There were UltraFLEX family design wins in mobility, where the systems architecture supports higher throughput for large complex devices especially when time to market is an important factor.

在內存方面，Flash 最終測試和 DRAM 晶圓分類是最強勁的市場。從戰略角度來看，Semi Test 在研發應用和我們預計在明年左右量產的設備方面都取得了強勁的季度競爭設計勝利。設計的勝利來自廣泛的終端市場。 UltraFLEX 系列設計在移動性方面取得了勝利，其中系統架構支持大型複雜設備的更高吞吐量，尤其是當上市時間是一個重要因素時。

Eagle Test had a significant design win in a battery management application where the system's highly accurate voltage measurement capability enables customers to get to market faster with better device specifications, delivering higher value.

Eagle Test 在電池管理應用中贏得了重大設計勝利，該系統的高精度電壓測量功能使客戶能夠以更好的設備規格更快地進入市場，從而提供更高的價值。

In Systems Test, sales were on plan in the quarter with solid year-on-year growth for storage Test and production board Test. At LitePoint, strong wireless Test demand for WiFi 6E, WiFi 7 R&D and ultra-wideband Test products drove double-digit year-on-year growth.

在系統測試方面，該季度的銷售按計劃進行，存儲測試和生產板測試的同比增長穩健。在 LitePoint，WiFi 6E、WiFi 7 研發和超寬帶測試產品的強勁無線測試需求推動了兩位數的同比增長。

Notably, we're seeing strong interest in WiFi 7 development Test where we are qualified at all major chipset vendors and to date, we have won 20 of 21 design-in opportunities with end product design teams. This sets us up to expand our already high share of WiFi production Test as these products ramp.

值得注意的是，我們看到了對 WiFi 7 開發測試的濃厚興趣，我們在所有主要芯片組供應商中都獲得了資格，迄今為止，我們已經贏得了最終產品設計團隊的 21 個設計導入機會中的 20 個。隨著這些產品的興起，這使我們能夠擴大我們在 WiFi 生產測試中已經很高的份額。

In Industrial Automation, revenues grew 10% from last year's Q2 and 19% for the first half. This lower-than-planned growth in the first half is attributed to 2 primary factors and warrants a few comments. The first factor was foreign exchange. The majority of IA revenue is linked to the euro. For example, within Europe, at UR, we saw a robust 34% unit growth in the first half of 2022 but the decline of the euro with respect to the dollar has muted UR revenue growth in that region to 20%.

在工業自動化領域，收入比去年第二季度增長 10%，上半年增長 19%。上半年低於計劃的增長歸因於兩個主要因素，值得發表一些評論。第一個因素是外匯。大部分 IA 收入與歐元掛鉤。例如，在歐洲，在 UR，我們在 2022 年上半年看到了 34% 的強勁單位增長，但歐元兌美元的貶值使 UR 在該地區的收入增長放緩至 20%。

The dollars appreciation was a revenue headwind in the first half and Sanjay will comment further on the full year foreign exchange outlook.

美元升值是上半年的收入逆風，桑傑將進一步評論全年外匯前景。

The second factor is lower regional demand that can be traced to a variety of region-specific causes, including COVID lockdowns in China and distribution partner staff shortages in North America where end demand remains quite strong. Staff shortages for integration partners is an ongoing challenge.

第二個因素是區域需求下降，這可以追溯到各種特定區域的原因，包括中國的 COVID 封鎖和北美的分銷合作夥伴人員短缺，而最終需求仍然相當強勁。集成合作夥伴的人員短缺是一個持續的挑戰。

In the past, we've noted that our distribution partners struggle to grow staff at the same rate as IA demand growth. Our strategy to overcome this is to use software technology and plug-and-play applications from UR+ and MiRGo partners to shorten the deployment time to make these critical staff more productive. But an equally important part of the strategy is to build a robust OEM channel. For example, at Universal Robots, our OEM channel, which includes verticals like welding, power grid maintenance and order fulfillment is doing very well, growing 39% in the first half of 2022. The OEM channel is an important complement to our distributor-based channel because these OEM partners deliver a mostly complete solution to their customers that can be put in operation almost immediately.

過去，我們注意到我們的分銷合作夥伴難以以與 IA 需求增長相同的速度增長員工。我們克服這一問題的策略是使用來自 UR+ 和 MiRGo 合作夥伴的軟件技術和即插即用應用程序來縮短部署時間，從而提高這些關鍵員工的工作效率。但該戰略的一個同樣重要的部分是建立一個強大的 OEM 渠道。例如，在優傲機器人，我們的 OEM 渠道（包括焊接、電網維護和訂單履行等垂直行業）表現非常好，在 2022 年上半年增長了 39%。OEM 渠道是我們基於分銷商的重要補充渠道，因為這些 OEM 合作夥伴向他們的客戶提供了幾乎可以立即投入運營的最完整的解決方案。

In many cases, these OEMs have an existing distribution network that can reach customers beyond our traditional channel. These partners can scale much more efficiently than distributors that add staff in proportion to revenue growth for customer support. We are actively adding new OEM partners to serve these and new market verticals.

在許多情況下，這些 OEM 擁有現有的分銷網絡，可以通過我們的傳統渠道覆蓋客戶。這些合作夥伴可以比分銷商更有效地擴展，這些分銷商根據收入增長為客戶支持增加員工。我們正在積極增加新的 OEM 合作夥伴，以服務於這些和新的垂直市場。

Now I'll hand it back to Mark for more on the market, the second half outlook and the demand drivers for next year.

現在我將把它交還給馬克，以了解更多關於市場、下半年前景和明年需求驅動因素的信息。

Thanks, Greg. While the long-term drivers in our Test and automation markets remain firmly in place, the recent deceleration we're experiencing in Test will impact our full year results.

謝謝，格雷格。雖然我們的測試和自動化市場的長期驅動因素仍然穩固，但我們在測試中遇到的近期減速將影響我們的全年業績。

Over the past few weeks, we've seen a marked slowdown in SOC and wireless tester demand in the second half related to declines in end market shipments of smartphones, compute products and associated infrastructure. These demand adjustments are -- these demand adjustments are happening in real time, and we are projecting this will continue over the next several weeks as the market continues to align their production plans and inventory levels to this new reality.

過去幾週，我們看到下半年 SOC 和無線測試儀需求明顯放緩，這與智能手機、計算產品和相關基礎設施的終端市場出貨量下降有關。這些需求調整是——這些需求調整是實時發生的，我們預計隨著市場繼續調整其生產計劃和庫存水平以適應這一新現實，這種情況將在未來幾週內持續下去。

This extends across multiple customers and device types, including apps processors, power management and RF. I will note that auto, MCU, industrial and Memory Test demand remains strong entering Q3 and we've seen no deceleration of demand in these markets.

這延伸到多個客戶和設備類型，包括應用處理器、電源管理和射頻。我會注意到，進入第三季度的汽車、MCU、工業和內存測試需求仍然強勁，我們沒有看到這些市場的需求減速。

When forecasting the second half of 2022, we are expecting the Test realignments we've seen in the past few weeks are not a blip and that further adjustments are coming. Beyond the reductions we've already seen, several customers have indicated they are in a capital review phase, which we are assuming will lead to some additional impact to Q4 demand.

在預測 2022 年下半年時，我們預計我們在過去幾週看到的測試調整不會是曇花一現，而且還會有進一步的調整。除了我們已經看到的減少之外，一些客戶表示他們正處於資本審查階段，我們假設這將對第四季度的需求產生一些額外的影響。

At a macro level, we also assume that China's smartphone volumes will not accelerate through the remainder of the year. We also believe that short-term global economic conditions will remain weak resulting in softening consumer demand and associated electronics inventory digestion.

在宏觀層面，我們還假設中國的智能手機銷量在今年剩餘時間內不會加速。我們還認為，短期全球經濟狀況仍將疲軟，導致消費需求疲軟和相關電子產品庫存消化。

In IA, we forecast that our second half business will continue to grow at about a 20% year-over-year level, consistent with our achievements in the first half but below our 35% goal.

在 IA，我們預測我們下半年的業務將繼續以約 20% 的同比水平增長，與上半年的成就一致，但低於我們 35% 的目標。

As Greg highlighted, we believe that China demand will remain muted. Distributor labor shortages in North America will limit the rate of installation expansion in the short term and FX headwinds will not abate. Summing it all up, we now expect our second half revenue to be slightly lower than the first half, resulting in a roughly 52%, 48% first half, second half split. Our laTest forecast projects that 2022 SOC Test market will be in the range of $4.2 billion to $4.6 billion, down from our April estimate of about $5 billion, while in Memory, we expect the market will remain at about $1 billion.

正如 Greg 強調的那樣，我們認為中國的需求將保持低迷。北美分銷商勞動力短缺將在短期內限制安裝擴張速度，外匯逆風不會減弱。綜上所述，我們現在預計下半年的收入將略低於上半年，導致上半年和下半年的收入分別為 52%、48%。我們最新的預測預測，2022 年 SOC 測試市場將在 42 億美元至 46 億美元之間，低於我們 4 月份估計的約 50 億美元，而在內存方面，我們預計市場將保持在 10 億美元左右。

To reiterate, much of our forecasted slowdown assumes continued yet to be identified demand decline in the fourth quarter.

重申一下，我們預測的放緩在很大程度上假設第四季度的需求持續下降尚未確定。

Looking further ahead, after 6 consecutive years of robust SOC Test market growth, we have entered a period of demand slowdown in digestion. This is not uncommon as we've seen this most recently in 2013 and 2015. And over the years, we've built our operating model to anticipate these kind of demand swings.

展望未來，經過連續 6 年強勁的 SOC 測試市場增長，我們已進入需求放緩消化期。這並不少見，因為我們最近在 2013 年和 2015 年看到了這種情況。多年來，我們建立了我們的運營模式來預測這種需求波動。

Predicting the depth and duration of these corrections is challenging, but in each of the last 3 corrections, growth returned after 6 to 12 months with the subsequent year showing strong growth. The ramp of 3 nanometer starting in 2023, followed by gate-all-around and increasing multichip packaging remains unaltered drivers of growth ahead.

預測這些修正的深度和持續時間具有挑戰性，但在最近 3 次修正中的每一次中，增長在 6 到 12 個月後恢復，隨後一年顯示出強勁增長。從 2023 年開始的 3 納米技術的興起，以及隨後的全面柵極和不斷增加的多芯片封裝仍然是未來增長的不變驅動力。

Interface transitions in both Flash and DRAM are also imminent. Hyperscalers continue to expand their chip design starts and edge AI as a new class of silicon application gaining momentum.

閃存和 DRAM 中的接口轉換也迫在眉睫。超大規模製造商繼續擴大他們的芯片設計起點，並將邊緣人工智能作為一種新的矽應用程序獲得動力。

In Industrial Automation, the value proposition has only strengthened as the short ROI remains compelling while increased resiliency in a world of questionable labor supply as another motivation to automate.

在工業自動化中，價值主張只會得到加強，因為短期投資回報率仍然引人注目，同時在勞動力供應存疑的世界中提高彈性作為自動化的另一個動力。

So while the first half of 2022 unfolded roughly as outlined in January, the second half is looking considerably softer as we expected just 3 months ago. However, we are confident of our long-term growth strategy and are focused on execution of our design-ins and R&D programs so that we are positioned to capitalize on growth of these markets that we serve.

因此，雖然 2022 年上半年大致如 1 月所述展開，但下半年看起來要溫和得多，正如我們在 3 個月前所預期的那樣。然而，我們對我們的長期增長戰略充滿信心，並專注於執行我們的設計和研發計劃，以便我們能夠利用我們所服務的這些市場的增長。

Sanjay will now take you through the financial details. Sanjay?

Sanjay 現在將帶您了解財務細節。桑傑？

Thank you, Mark. Good morning, everyone. Today, I'll provide details on our Q2 results, offer additional color on how we're addressing the slowdown in some markets and supply shortages and others and describe our Q3 outlook.

謝謝你，馬克。大家，早安。今天，我將提供有關我們第二季度業績的詳細信息，為我們如何解決某些市場放緩和供應短缺等問題提供更多色彩，並描述我們第三季度的前景。

Now to Q2. Second quarter sales were $841 million with non-GAAP EPS of $1.21, non-GAAP gross margins were 60.2% and our non-GAAP operating expenses were $251 million, $14 million below mid guidance. The main driver -- sorry -- the main driver of the lower-than-planned OpEx was an Industrial Automation Group or IAG due to lower variable compensation tied to lower revenue projections and slower-than-planned hiring. Non-GAAP operating profit rate was 30.3%. We had 210% customers in the quarter. The tax rate, excluding discrete items for the quarter was 16.9% on a non-GAAP basis. Please note, you should now use 16.5% for the full year non-GAAP tax rate.

現在到第二季度。第二季度銷售額為 8.41 億美元，非美國通用會計準則每股收益為 1.21 美元，非美國通用會計準則毛利率為 60.2%，我們的非美國通用會計準則運營費用為 2.51 億美元，低於指導中值 1400 萬美元。主要驅動因素 - 抱歉 - 低於計劃的運營支出的主要驅動因素是工業自動化集團或 IAG，因為較低的可變薪酬與較低的收入預測和低於計劃的招聘有關。非美國通用會計準則營業利潤率為 30.3%。我們在本季度擁有 210% 的客戶。按非公認會計原則計算，本季度不包括離散項目的稅率為 16.9%。請注意，您現在應該使用 16.5% 的全年非 GAAP 稅率。

Looking at the results from a business unit perspective. Semi Test revenue was $541 million. SOC revenue was $461 million, driven by strength in automotive and industrial markets. Memory revenue was $81 million, led by Flash final Test and DRAM wafer sort. System Test group had revenue of $135 million, which was up 29% year-over-year. Storage Test sales, including both HDD and system-level Test solutions were $86 million in the quarter, up 49% from Q2 '21. Defense and aerospace and production board Test combined grew 4% year-on-year.

從業務部門的角度來看結果。半測試收入為 5.41 億美元。受汽車和工業市場實力的推動，SOC 收入為 4.61 億美元。內存收入為 8100 萬美元，主要由 Flash 最終測試和 DRAM 晶圓分揀。 System Test 集團的收入為 1.35 億美元，同比增長 29%。本季度存儲測試銷售額（包括 HDD 和系統級測試解決方案）為 8600 萬美元，比 21 年第二季度增長 49%。國防和航空航天和生產板測試合計同比增長 4%。

At LitePoint, revenue of $64 million was up 16% from prior year due primarily to strong shipments in WiFi 6E and WiFi 7 and UWB Test systems.

LitePoint 的收入為 6400 萬美元，比上年增長 16%，這主要歸功於 WiFi 6E 和 WiFi 7 以及 UWB 測試系統的強勁出貨量。

Now to Industrial Automation. Industrial Automation revenue of $101 million in Q2 was up 10% year-over-year. This was lower than expected, as Greg noted. Despite the lower growth, we still expect IA revenue to follow the historical pattern and grow as we move through the year.

現在到工業自動化。第二季度工業自動化收入為 1.01 億美元，同比增長 10%。正如格雷格指出的那樣，這低於預期。儘管增長率較低，但我們仍預計 IA 收入將遵循歷史模式並隨著我們全年的發展而增長。

UR sales were $883 million in Q2, up 8% year-over-year with the highest growth in Northern Europe. MiR sales were $17 million, up 9% from Q2 '21 in the quarter.

UR 在第二季度的銷售額為 8.83 億美元，同比增長 8%，在北歐增長最快。 MiR 銷售額為 1700 萬美元，比本季度的 21 年第二季度增長 9%。

From a financial perspective, in IA. The group was slightly under breakeven on a non-GAAP operating basis in the second quarter. And for the full year, we expect to be towards the low end of the 5% to 15% profit range we discussed in past calls. We view the roughly 20% growth rate in IA as a short-term situation, as Greg noted.

從財務角度來看，在 IA。該集團在第二季度的非公認會計準則運營基礎上略低於盈虧平衡。對於全年，我們預計將接近我們在過去電話會議中討論的 5% 至 15% 利潤範圍的低端。正如 Greg 所說，我們將 IA 大約 20% 的增長率視為短期情況。

Like the company model, the IAG Group operating model naturally Flex is spending down based on profitability, and we're tightening discretionary spending where appropriate. But our long-term IA growth strategy and related investment plans remain unchanged.

與公司模式一樣，IAG 集團的運營模式自然是 Flex 會根據盈利能力減少支出，並且我們會在適當的時候收緊可自由支配的支出。但我們的長期 IA 增長戰略和相關投資計劃保持不變。

Shifting to supply. Our Q2 guidance excluded approximately $50 million of revenue tied to our inability to supply customer demand. In Q3, we're excluding a similar $50 million of revenue from our guidance range, primarily in our Test businesses. The shortage of semiconductors ranging from FPGAs to industrial analog continues to impact our production.

轉向供應。我們的第二季度指導排除了與我們無法滿足客戶需求相關的約 5000 萬美元收入。在第三季度，我們從指導範圍中排除了類似的 5000 萬美元收入，主要是在我們的測試業務中。從 FPGA 到工業模擬的半導體短缺繼續影響著我們的生產。

As I've noted in prior calls, we're taking numerous actions to harden our supply chain but even with these actions, we expect supply line constraints to remain challenging. I will note these actions and other factors improved our supply situation in Q2, mainly in Test, which enabled higher shipments.

正如我在之前的電話會議中指出的那樣，我們正在採取許多行動來加強我們的供應鏈，但即使採取了這些行動，我們預計供應線的限制仍然具有挑戰性。我會注意到這些行動和其他因素改善了我們第二季度的供應情況，主要是在測試中，這使得出貨量增加。

Shifting to the balance sheet and cash flow. Our cash and marketable securities at the end of the quarter totaled approximately $900 million, down from $1.2 billion at the end of Q1. We had $70 million in free cash flow in the quarter, reflecting the timing of shipments and supplier prepayments. Over 80% of our shipments occurred in May and June saw our DSO expanded to 74 days, which we expect will decline in the second half of the year.

轉向資產負債表和現金流。本季度末，我們的現金和有價證券總額約為 9 億美元，低於第一季度末的 12 億美元。本季度我們有 7000 萬美元的自由現金流，反映了發貨時間和供應商預付款項。我們超過 80% 的發貨發生在 5 月和 6 月，我們的 DSO 擴展到 74 天，我們預計下半年將下降。

Other uses of cash in the quarter included share buybacks of $331 million, dividend payments of $18 million and debt retirement of $22 million. At the end of Q2, we're more than 2/3 of the way through our $750 million share repurchase plan for 2022 with $217 million remaining.

本季度現金的其他用途包括 3.31 億美元的股票回購、1800 萬美元的股息支付和 2200 萬美元的債務清償。在第二季度末，我們完成了 2022 年 7.5 億美元的股票回購計劃的 2/3 以上，剩餘 2.17 億美元。

In October -- sorry, in our October call, we'll note any updates to our share buyback plan.

10 月——對不起，在我們 10 月的電話會議中，我們會注意到我們股票回購計劃的任何更新。

Regarding debt. To date, $386 million of convertible bonds have early converted. I'd also like to note several points regarding the strong U.S. dollar and its impact on our results. In our Test portfolio, the majority of revenue and expense are in dollars, so there's not a material foreign exchange impact. In IA businesses, on the other hand, have a large amount of euro-linked expenses and about 50% of their revenue is tied to the euro.

關於債務。迄今為止，3.86 億美元的可轉換債券已提前轉換。我還想指出關於強勢美元及其對我們業績的影響的幾點。在我們的測試產品組合中，大部分收入和費用都以美元計算，因此不會產生重大的外匯影響。另一方面，在 IA 業務中，有大量與歐元相關的費用，其大約 50% 的收入與歐元相關。

The result is the strong dollar reduces IA's revenue and gross margin in dollars. In the first half, the FX impact reduced our IA growth rate approximately 4 points. Assuming exchange rates remain consistent with July's exchange rate, we expect 6 points of growth headwind for the full year compared to our January projection.

結果是美元走強降低了 IA 的收入和毛利率（以美元計）。上半年，外匯影響使我們的 IA 增長率降低了約 4 個百分點。假設匯率與 7 月份的匯率保持一致，與 1 月份的預測相比，我們預計全年的增長逆風為 6 個百分點。

For IA, the strengthening dollar has a marginal benefit on the OpEx side. The revenue and margin degradation is offset by the OpEx gain, yielding a neutral effect on our operating profit for that segment.

對 IA 而言，美元走強在運營支出方面具有邊際收益。收入和利潤率下降被運營支出收益所抵消，對我們該部門的營業利潤產生中性影響。

Now to our outlook for Q3. A combination of slowing demand and Test, extending lead times due to material shortages and reduced automation demand in Europe and China results in a lower Q3 outlook than we expected 3 months ago.

現在來看我們對第三季度的展望。需求放緩和測試、材料短缺導致交貨時間延長以及歐洲和中國自動化需求減少導致第三季度前景低於我們三個月前的預期。

As noted, the guidance excludes approximately $50 million of shipments due to material shortages primarily in Test. Also, the guidance assumes we won't see any extended shutdowns of production facilities due to COVID, and we won't see any new trade restrictions.

如前所述，該指南不包括大約 5000 萬美元的出貨量，原因是主要在 Test 中出現材料短缺。此外，該指南還假設我們不會看到生產設施因新冠疫情而延長關閉，也不會看到任何新的貿易限制。

With that said, sales in Q3 are expected to be between $760 million and $840 million, with non-GAAP EPS in a range of $0.90 to $1.16 on 166 million diluted shares. The third quarter guidance excludes the amortization of acquired intangibles. Third quarter gross margins are estimated at 58% to 59%, down from Q2 due to product mix, 2022 investment supply chain resiliency and wage inflation.

話雖如此，第三季度的銷售額預計在 7.6 億美元至 8.4 億美元之間，1.66 億股稀釋後的非公認會計準則每股收益在 0.90 美元至 1.16 美元之間。第三季度指引不包括收購無形資產的攤銷。由於產品組合、2022 年投資供應鏈彈性和工資通脹，第三季度毛利率預計為 58% 至 59%，低於第二季度。

Some of these effects are transitory, and we expect our midterm earnings model gross margin range of 59% to 60% to remain intact. OpEx is expected to run at 31% to 34% of third quarter sales. The non-GAAP operating profit rate at the midpoint of our third quarter guidance is 26%.

其中一些影響是暫時的，我們預計我們的中期收益模型毛利率範圍為 59% 至 60% 將保持不變。 OpEx 預計將佔第三季度銷售額的 31% 至 34%。我們第三季度指引中點的非 GAAP 營業利潤率為 26%。

As Mark noted, we expect second half revenue to be below the first half, approximately 48% of full year sales. Given the reduced revenue outlook for the second half of the year, our operating expenses are now planned to grow just 4% to 6% annually versus 11% to 13% planned in our prior guidance.

正如馬克所指出的，我們預計下半年收入將低於上半年，約佔全年銷售額的 48%。鑑於下半年的收入前景下降，我們的運營費用現在計劃每年僅增長 4% 至 6%，而我們之前的指導計劃為 11% 至 13%。

The OpEx reduction from prior guide is driven by 2 factors. First, our variable compensation model is approximately half of the decline tied to reduced revenue. Second, we have delayed some expenditures in both Test and IA, which we believe will not impact our long-run competitiveness. Spending savings are roughly evenly split between engineering and go-to-market.

與先前指南相比，OpEx 減少是由兩個因素驅動的。首先，我們的可變薪酬模型大約是與收入減少有關的下降的一半。其次，我們推遲了測試和 IA 的一些支出，我們認為這不會影響我們的長期競爭力。節省的開支在工程和上市之間大致平均分配。

Summing it all up, we're expecting revenue and profit in Q3 and the second half of the year to be lower than we projected 3 months ago, but our operating model is resilient to varying revenue levels. With the reduced revenue level, our model reduces variable compensation expense, and we're taking other steps as appropriate.

總而言之，我們預計第三季度和下半年的收入和利潤將低於我們三個月前的預期，但我們的運營模式能夠適應不同的收入水平。隨著收入水平的降低，我們的模型減少了可變薪酬費用，我們正在酌情採取其他措施。

A downturn is always challenging, but we're confident we have the operating model, strategy and experience to lead us through whatever lies ahead, while keeping our focus on the needs of our customers and the long-term opportunities in the Test and industrial automation markets.

經濟低迷總是充滿挑戰，但我們相信我們擁有運營模式、戰略和經驗來帶領我們度過未來的一切，同時我們將專注於客戶的需求以及測試和工業自動化領域的長期機遇市場。

With that, I'll turn things over to Andy.

有了這個，我會把事情交給安迪。

Thanks, Sanjay. Latif would now like to take some questions. And as a reminder, please limit yourself to one question and a follow-up.

謝謝，桑傑。 Latif 現在想回答一些問題。提醒一下，請將自己限制在一個問題和後續行動上。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Vivek Arya of Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Vivek Arya。

I just wanted to clarify that you're guiding Q4 roughly around $670 million, $675 million, which seems to be kind of freak-over levels. And I think if I take your IA guidance into account, suggest that non-IA Q4 sales will be $430 million, which would be, I think, almost 20% below pre-COVID levels. Did I get that right? And I realize that there are headwinds, but why is such a sharp decline in your Q4 outlook?

我只是想澄清一下，你指導的第四季度大約在 6.7 億美元、6.75 億美元左右，這似乎是一種瘋狂的水平。而且我認為，如果我將您的 IA 指導考慮在內，建議非 IA 第四季度的銷售額將為 4.3 億美元，我認為這將比 COVID 之前的水平低近 20%。我做對了嗎？而且我意識到存在不利因素，但為什麼您的第四季度前景如此急劇下降？

Yes. Roughly speaking, those are about right. And I think, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, maybe we probably reduced our second half revenue targets somewhere between $300 million to $350 million. About 1/3 of that is known customer weakening where the demand has been communicated to us to have soften. 2/3 of it is just a projection of more to come of that fame based on conversations that are just beginning with customers. So there's not a clear -- and all of this is mostly related to Test.

是的。粗略地說，這些都差不多。而且我認為，正如我在準備好的講話中提到的那樣，也許我們可能會將下半年的收入目標降低到 3 億至 3.5 億美元之間。其中大約 1/3 是已知的客戶弱化，即需求已傳達給我們以軟化。其中 2/3 只是根據剛開始與客戶的對話預測更多的名聲。所以沒有一個明確的——所有這些都主要與測試有關。

So there's not sort of a clear identified 2/3 of that decline portion, but it's just the experience we've seen in prior cycles and the Test industry suggest that there's more to come.

因此，沒有明確確定下降部分的 2/3，但這只是我們在之前的周期中看到的經驗，測試行業表明還會有更多。

If you go back to 2013, for example, when the market went through a significant 30% year-over-year correction, this was sort of the beginning of that kind of trend. Now here, we're talking about a market correcting about 9% off of the peak of last year. So a much more modest correction -- but that's -- this is kind of how the market turns and we're using history to sort of guide us in how we're projecting these yet-to-be-identified digestion phases.

例如，如果你回到 2013 年，當市場經歷了 30% 的同比大幅調整時，這就是這種趨勢的開始。現在在這裡，我們談論的是一個市場從去年的峰值修正了大約 9%。所以一個更溫和的修正——但這就是——這就是市場的變化方式，我們正在利用歷史來指導我們如何預測這些尚未確定的消化階段。

Got it. And then, Mark, I'm curious, what is your exposure to Android smartphones this year versus last year? And how much of a headwind -- is that continuous? And do you think that will alleviate next year? Or can that still be an offset to any 3-nanometer Testing benefits on the iOS side? So just the interplay between Android and iOS kind of this year and what you're thinking about from a next year perspective?

知道了。然後，馬克，我很好奇，今年與去年相比，你對 Android 智能手機的了解程度如何？有多大的逆風——那是連續的嗎？你認為明年會緩解嗎？或者這仍然可以抵消 iOS 方面的任何 3 納米測試優勢嗎？那麼今年 Android 和 iOS 之間的相互作用，以及你從明年的角度考慮的問題？

Yes. I think our exposure to Android smartphones is a little bit higher this year than it's been in past years. We've picked up a little bit of market share in that segment. Obviously, that segment is down significantly this year in unit volume. So that's having the -- that's principally the reason for the declines we're forecasting here in the second half.

是的。我認為今年我們對 Android 智能手機的曝光率比往年要高一些。我們已經在該領域獲得了一點市場份額。顯然，該細分市場今年的單位銷量大幅下降。因此，這就是我們在下半年預測的下跌的主要原因。

Now when we look at 2023, it's hard to tell what's going to happen with the Android phones. Part of what's happened in 2022 in terms of the declines related to China -- and part of this is predicting how China will rebound in 2023 as consumer demand hopefully recovers. But we don't have a strong forecast for the Android subsegment of smartphones yet for 2023. So I can't really give you a lot of color on that.

現在，當我們展望 2023 年時，很難說 Android 手機會發生什麼。 2022 年發生的與中國相關的下降的部分原因是預測隨著消費者需求有望復蘇，中國將如何在 2023 年反彈。但是我們還沒有對 2023 年的智能手機 Android 細分市場做出強有力的預測。所以我真的不能給你很多顏色。

Our next question comes from the line of Toshiya Hari of Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

I had 2 as well, one on Semi Test and the other on IA. On the Semi Test side, Mark, I was hoping you could speak to your expectations in terms of market share for the year? Given the incremental weakness you're seeing at the market level and given that you had sort of derisked your opportunity for this year with your largest customer. I feel like your market share position as of today is perhaps a little bit better than what you were thinking 3 months ago. I just wanted to clarify that on the Semi Test side?

我也有 2 個，一個在 Semi Test 上，另一個在 IA 上。在半測試方面，馬克，我希望你能說出你對今年市場份額的期望？鑑於您在市場層面看到的漸進式疲軟，以及您在今年與最大客戶合作的機會有點冒險。我覺得你今天的市場份額可能比你 3 個月前的想法要好一些。我只是想在半測試方面澄清這一點？

Yes. I think -- so there's 2 pieces of Semi Test Memory and SOC Memory, it's going to be 40-ish percent market share, consistent with last year. On SOC, it really depends on what happens on the compute side in terms of how much decline happens in the market on compute, which is more of our competitors, strong soup. So we've baked in a significant decline in mobility. We believe a decline in compute is imminent -- but that's something that I think over the next few weeks, as we hear from our competitor, we'll know more about.

是的。我認為 - 所以有 2 塊半測試內存和 SOC 內存，它將佔據 40% 的市場份額，與去年一致。在 SOC 上，這實際上取決於計算方面發生的情況，即計算市場發生了多少下降，這更多是我們的競爭對手，強湯。因此，我們已經在流動性顯著下降的情況下進行了烘焙。我們相信計算能力的下降迫在眉睫——但我認為在接下來的幾週內，正如我們從競爭對手那裡聽到的那樣，我們會了解更多。

All that being said, I think our statistical share is sort of in the upper -- mid- to upper 30% range in SOC Test this year. But that's based on, again, strong compute market, weak mobility market versus customer switching suppliers and that moves around quite a bit year-to-year.

話雖如此，我認為我們的統計份額在今年的 SOC 測試中處於中上 30% 的範圍內。但這又是基於強大的計算市場、疲軟的移動市場與客戶轉換供應商的關係，並且每年都有相當多的變化。

Got it. That's helpful. And then as my follow-up on the IA side, I guess a 2-part question. The first part is I just wanted to clarify that fundamentals in the business remain pretty strong. And I asked the question because the reasons you noted for, I guess, the reduced outlook for the second half seemed technical transitory. You talked about FX. You talked about COVID lockdowns in China and staff shortages in the U.S. So fundamentally, is the business still healthy and intact? I guess that's number one.

知道了。這很有幫助。然後作為我在 IA 方面的後續行動，我猜是一個由兩部分組成的問題。第一部分是我只是想澄清業務的基本面仍然非常強勁。我問這個問題是因為你提到的原因，我猜，下半年前景的下降似乎是技術上的暫時性。你談到了外匯。您談到了中國的 COVID 封鎖和美國的員工短缺。那麼從根本上說，企業仍然健康和完好無損嗎？我想這是第一名。

And then number two, on the OEM channel dynamic, just curious, how big is that channel today as a percentage of IA? And where do you see that going in a couple of years? And how does that impact profitability as OEM grows vis-a-vis your Dusty business?

然後第二點，關於 OEM 渠道動態，只是好奇，今天該渠道佔 IA 的百分比有多大？你認為幾年後會發生什麼？隨著 OEM 相對於 Dusty 業務的增長，這將如何影響盈利能力？

This is Greg. Let me try and take that. So we believe that the fundamentals are still very strong in the IA market. The effects of China lockdowns and staff shortages should both ease to some extent through the rest of the year. We believe that the FX headwind is going to be consistent through the rest of this year. We don't see a significant appreciation of the euro. So that translation into dollars is going to continue to take a couple of points off the top in terms of our growth for revenue that's denominated in euros.

這是格雷格。讓我試試看。因此，我們認為 IA 市場的基本面仍然非常強勁。中國封鎖和人員短缺的影響應該會在今年餘下的時間裡得到一定程度的緩解。我們認為，外匯逆風將在今年餘下時間保持一致。我們沒有看到歐元大幅升值。因此，就我們以歐元計價的收入增長而言，轉換為美元將繼續降低幾個百分點。

To your second question, our OEM channel right now, it represents about 16% of overall UR revenue lower for the entirety of the Industrial Automation Group. And it's growing for the first half, it grew at 39% and we expect to be able to maintain that kind of a growth rate.

對於您的第二個問題，我們的 OEM 渠道目前佔整個工業自動化集團 UR 總收入的 16% 左右。上半年它還在增長，增長了 39%，我們預計能夠保持這樣的增長率。

And impact on profitability?

以及對盈利能力的影響？

So our pricing in the OEM channel is a little bit favorable to pricing through our normal distribution channel. So we don't expect to see any negative impact to profitability as that channel grows.

因此，我們在 OEM 渠道中的定價比通過我們的正常分銷渠道定價稍微有利一些。因此，隨著該渠道的增長，我們預計不會對盈利能力產生任何負面影響。

Our next question comes from the line of Samik Chatterjee of JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Samik Chatterjee。

I have a couple as well. I think within Semi Test, you mentioned you're continuing to see robust demand in autos and industrial within Semi Test. So I was just wondering, given the trends you're seeing in industrial automation -- are you baking in any incremental weakness as you go through the remainder of the year in autos and industrial as well within Semi Test? And then I have a follow-up.

我也有一對。我認為在 Semi Test 中，您提到您在 Semi Test 中繼續看到汽車和工業的強勁需求。所以我只是想知道，鑑於您在工業自動化中看到的趨勢——當您在今年剩餘的時間裡在汽車和工業以及 Semi Test 中度過任何增量的弱點時，您是否會感到疲倦？然後我有一個跟進。

No, not really. Most of the weakness we're baking in, again, in the fourth quarter that we've yet to really get confirmation on is in more in mobility and compute and infrastructure. But we think industrial and auto will remain strong through the end of the year.

不，不是。我們在第四季度再次出現的大部分弱點，我們尚未真正得到確認，更多的是在移動性、計算和基礎設施方面。但我們認為工業和汽車行業將在年底前保持強勁勢頭。

And just a follow up on the cost structure here. I see -- I mean, you've obviously paired back some of your expenses that were planned for this year. But in relation to sort of SG&A, you're running pretty much at the same rate that you were last year when revenues were much higher as you start to think about sort of the strategic CapEx if you buy some of your customers and maybe some delays to the secular long-term drivers that you have. What's the sort of flexibility in terms of taking the cost structure lower or sort of rightsizing it for maybe some of the sort of pushouts in terms of revenue that you're seeing greater -- could you just sort of postponing spend as you're doing sort of announcing today?

這裡只是對成本結構的跟進。我明白了 - 我的意思是，您顯然已經將今年計劃的一些費用配對了。但就 SG&A 而言，你的運行速度與去年收入高得多時的運行速度幾乎相同對於你擁有的長期長期驅動力。在降低成本結構或調整成本結構方面的靈活性是什麼今天宣布什麼？

It's Sanjay. So just a couple of comments on our business model as it relates to cost structure. So as you know, the majority of our Test portfolio has contract manufacturing. So it really provides great scalability up and down with our outsourced partners kind of fixed assets. So that helps on the margin line.

是桑傑。因此，就我們與成本結構相關的商業模式發表一些評論。如您所知，我們的大部分測試產品組合都有合同製造。因此，它確實為我們的外包合作夥伴類型的固定資產提供了極大的可擴展性。所以這有助於邊緣線。

But then from an operating expense perspective, we have a key portion of our wages in a flexible or variable compensation plan that is that as revenue and profit goes up, that is passed along part of it to the employees. But as it goes down, which is one of -- it's about half of the driver of the growth reduction from a midpoint of 12% expected this year to a midpoint of 5%, as I noted in my prepared remarks, about half of that growth reduction is driven by the variable compensation.

但從運營費用的角度來看，我們在靈活或可變的薪酬計劃中擁有工資的關鍵部分，即隨著收入和利潤的增加，部分工資將轉嫁給員工。但隨著它的下降，這是其中一個 - 正如我在準備好的評論中指出的那樣，它是推動增長從今年預期的 12% 中點下降到 5% 中點的大約一半增長減少是由可變薪酬驅動的。

So we believe as time moves on and let's say, the market goes lower, we'll have the ability to reduce our operating expenses on a variable basis while keeping our workforce intact and investing for the long term. And obviously, as the market rebounds or increases, our revenue goes up, then that will increase our operating expenses on a variable basis.

因此，我們相信隨著時間的推移，假設市場走低，我們將有能力在可變的基礎上減少運營費用，同時保持我們的員工隊伍完好無損並進行長期投資。顯然，隨著市場反彈或增加，我們的收入會增加，那麼這將在可變的基礎上增加我們的運營費用。

Our next question comes from the line of C.J. Muse of Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 C.J. Muse。

I guess first question on gross margins. If I look at what you've kind of discussed in terms of mix, that's actually a positive on the SOC side yet you're guiding gross margins, I think the worst is kind of mid-2020 at a revenue run rate, I think that exceeded back then. So -- so curious what is driving the gross margin hit here? Is it a much worse mix in SOC than what perhaps I'm contemplating? Or is it kind of the FX other issues around IA?

我想第一個問題是關於毛利率的。如果我看一下您在混合方面討論過的內容，這實際上是 SOC 方面的積極因素，但您正在指導毛利率，我認為最糟糕的是 2020 年年中的收入運行率，我認為當時超過了。所以 - 很好奇是什麼推動了這裡的毛利率？它在 SOC 中的組合是否比我正在考慮的要糟糕得多？或者是關於 IA 的 FX 其他問題？

Sure, C.J. So yes, so I think when you think of the product mix, there is some mix degradation within Semi Test, but also as there's less Wireless Test, which is higher than the corporate average and less than expected kind of IA, which is higher than the corporate average. So you are seeing mix. But a couple of other drivers that I noted in my prepared remarks.

當然，C.J. 所以是的，所以我認為當您考慮產品組合時，Semi Test 中存在一些組合退化，但無線測試也較少，這高於公司平均水平，低於預期的 IA，這高於企業平均水平。所以你看到的是混合。但是我在準備好的評論中提到了其他幾個驅動程序。

And that is we've spent a lot of effort and money on making our supply chain resilient through component qualification, through multi-country manufacturing, et cetera. A lot of those costs are going to be incurred in 2022 and the second half of 2022. So we have those that significantly curtail, there will be some in 2023, but will curtail the majority of them in 2022. So think of those as transitory. And then we're also seeing a little bit of wage inflation for both ourselves and our partners.

那就是我們花費了大量的精力和金錢來通過組件認證、多國製造等來使我們的供應鏈具有彈性。其中很多成本將在 2022 年和 2022 年下半年產生。所以我們有那些顯著削減的成本，2023 年會有一些成本，但將在 2022 年削減大部分成本。所以認為這些成本是暫時的.然後我們也看到我們自己和我們的合作夥伴的工資上漲了一點。

Very helpful. I guess as my follow-up, in terms of the slowdown that you're seeing in Test, are you seeing pushouts or actual cancellations? And then as you think about 2023, obviously, a lot of changes afoot in terms of heterogeneous compute, larger die sizes, smaller die sizes with chiplets advanced packaging. I'm curious how you're thinking about that net effect into 2023 and how you -- whether we could see growth or further declines and what your market share might look like?

非常有幫助。我想作為我的後續行動，就您在測試中看到的放緩而言，您看到的是推出還是實際取消？然後當你想到 2023 年時，很明顯，在異構計算、更大的芯片尺寸、更小的芯片尺寸和小芯片先進封裝方面正在發生很多變化。我很好奇您如何看待到 2023 年的淨效應以及您如何——我們是否可以看到增長或進一步下降以及您的市場份額可能會是什麼樣子？

Yes. So on the heterogeneous computing and the effects in 2023, I think that's all positive for us. 3 nanometer is coming as planned. We don't see any changes or delays in anything associated with that. The trends toward chiplets, multichip packages and the associated Test intensity increase around known good die, more pins to Test in a chiplet design than there would be in a monolithic design. All are tailwinds for Test.

是的。所以關於異構計算和 2023 年的影響，我認為這對我們來說都是積極的。 3納米如期而至。我們沒有看到與此相關的任何變化或延遲。小芯片、多芯片封裝和相關測試強度的趨勢隨著已知良好管芯的增加而增加，小芯片設計中要測試的引腳比單片設計中的要多。所有這些都是測試的順風。

Now those have been occurring in the market and we'll continue to phase in over the next several years as that method of, let's say, package assembly gains more and more prevalence. So that is another one of the tailwinds that gives us confidence in the midterm earning model that we produced earlier in the year.

現在這些已經出現在市場上，我們將在接下來的幾年內繼續逐步採用這種方法，比如說，封裝組裝的方法越來越流行。因此，這是另一個讓我們對今年早些時候製作的中期盈利模型充滿信心的順風。

So no change to our beliefs around 2023 at this point. And in terms of pushouts versus cancellations versus anything else, we're not seeing any cancellations. But what we have seen is that there's been a few pushouts, but more significantly, we do hold some capacity in place for some of our key customers on a basically -- a sort of 12- to 16-week delivery window basis that were unbooked and it's the demand for those unordered testers principally that disappeared.

因此，在這一點上，我們對 2023 年左右的信念沒有改變。就推出與取消與其他任何事情而言，我們沒有看到任何取消。但我們所看到的是有一些推出，但更重要的是，我們確實為我們的一些主要客戶保留了一些容量，基本上是 - 一種 12 到 16 週的交付窗口，但未預訂主要是對那些無序測試人員的需求消失了。

Our next question comes from the line of [Robert Graham] of Loop Capital.

我們的下一個問題來自 Loop Capital 的 [Robert Graham]。

Welcome aboard, Greg. I have 2 maybe more 40,000-foot theoreticals, if you don't mind. The first is when we started the year, largest customer decides to curtail tester purchases because I think as we've determined to be correct, that their complexity in this year's launch, it was just not enough to warrant a new tester that the idea was that next year, their '23 launch would have much more complexity aided by 3-nanometer. Has -- with the smartphone market weaker today, has anything changed that framework in your mind or more -- perhaps even more importantly, if I may, what your largest customer is saying to you, Mark?

歡迎登機，格雷格。如果你不介意的話，我還有 2 個可能還有 40,000 英尺的理論值。首先是當我們年初時，最大的客戶決定減少購買測試儀，因為我認為我們已經確定是正確的，他們在今年發佈時的複雜性，只是不足以保證新的測試儀的想法是明年，他們的 '23 發射將在 3 納米技術的幫助下變得更加複雜。隨著今天智能手機市場的疲軟，是否有任何事情改變了你心中的框架或更多——也許更重要的是，如果可以的話，馬克，你最大的客戶對你說了什麼？

Yes, no changes on that front. Our largest customer has fared pretty well this year despite overall unit declines in smartphones. And so it's a bright spot, if anything else that, that segment of the smartphone market is robust. And we expect -- and every -- there's nothing we've heard that would change our view of 2023.

是的，在這方面沒有變化。儘管智能手機的整體銷量下降，但我們最大的客戶今年的表現相當不錯。所以這是一個亮點，如果有的話，智能手機市場的這一部分是強勁的。我們預計——而且每一次——我們所聽說的任何事情都不會改變我們對 2023 年的看法。

And then as far as this whole 6- to 12-month slowdown that you've seen in the past, which is obviously documented in the numbers, Mark, in your eyes, does that actually start in 3Q because the first half was kind of more a Teradyne specific thing with that large customer? Does that essentially 6- to 12-month timetable start now?

然後就你過去看到的整個 6 到 12 個月的放緩而言，這顯然記錄在數字中，馬克，在你看來，這實際上是從第三季度開始的，因為上半年有點更多與大客戶有關的泰瑞達特定的東西？基本上 6 到 12 個月的時間表現在開始了嗎？

Yes. I would suggest it starts in third quarter because you're right, the first half sort of market declines were pretty isolated to one customer having that big of an impact on the overall view of the market. What we're into now is something more classical, I think. It's certainly -- and part of this, again, I'll caution is a projection on our part. We've seen it now in the smartphone side but we believe and sense that it's coming in a broader set of markets like compute and infrastructure.

是的。我建議它從第三季度開始，因為你是對的，上半年的市場下跌非常孤立，因為一位客戶對市場的整體看法產生瞭如此大的影響。我想，我們現在進入的是更經典的東西。這當然是——我要再次提醒的是，其中一部分是我們的預測。我們現在已經在智能手機方面看到了它，但我們相信並感覺到它正在進入更廣泛的市場，如計算和基礎設施。

And there's inventory overhangs as well out there that typically, in phases like this go through a digestion phase and working down inventory levels take that sort of 6- to 12-month period. And we think that as we head into sort of lower economic growth periods and a little bit more inventory in the channel than historically has been there -- that people are going to tighten down a bit and it's going to slow demand for sort of repeat orders for devices in those categories. So yes, starts in Q3, 6- to 12-months, I think, is a safe bet, and we'll see how it plays out.

而且還有庫存過剩，通常在這樣的階段會經歷消化階段，降低庫存水平需要 6 到 12 個月的時間。我們認為，隨著我們進入某種較低的經濟增長期，並且渠道中的庫存比歷史上多一點——人們將收緊一點，這將減緩對某種重複訂單的需求對於這些類別的設備。所以是的，從第三季度開始，6 到 12 個月，我認為，是一個安全的賭注，我們將看看它會如何發揮作用。

Mark, if I could just sneak this one in. By extension to that -- by extension to that, does the 2024 framework now is at the lower end of that maybe more likely? Or is the lower end in jeopardy? I'm just wondering because you didn't put that framework into the deck.

馬克，如果我能把這個偷偷溜進去的話。延伸到那個——延伸到那個，2024 年框架現在是否更有可能處於低端？還是低端處於危險之中？我只是想知道，因為你沒有把那個框架放到甲板上。

No, I think -- look, I think if you look at the history of the market, that 2024 framework, our earnings model and projection is intact and in play, and I wouldn't characterize it as low end either. When you look at how much the markets move up and down year-to-year historically, we could easily see a snapback of 20%, 30% growth in a subsequent year.

不，我認為 - 看，我認為如果你看看市場的歷史，2024 年的框架，我們的盈利模式和預測是完整的並且正在發揮作用，我也不會將其描述為低端。當您查看歷史上市場每年上下波動的幅度時，我們可以很容易地看到隨後一年的 20% 和 30% 的快速回升。

So I wouldn't call our 2024 in any way based on what we're seeing right now.

因此，根據我們現在所看到的，我不會以任何方式稱呼我們的 2024 年。

Our next question comes from the line of Brian Chin of Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Brian Chin。

Thanks for letting us ask a few questions. Maybe just backtrack to the $600 million reduction in the SOC TAM. Can you maybe just delineate again whether it's mobility versus compute within that reduction?

感謝您讓我們提出幾個問題。也許只是回溯到 SOC TAM 減少 6 億美元。您能否再次描述在這種減少範圍內它是移動性還是計算性？

And also just sort of zoom in on the compute TAM, are you seeing or anticipating any weakness outside of processors for client PCs, meaning sort of hyperscale or server high-performance compute chips as well?

並且只是放大計算 TAM，您是否看到或預期客戶端 PC 處理器之外的任何弱點，這意味著超大規模或服務器高性能計算芯片也是如此？

I'll take the TAM side of it. So where we're seeing in our estimates really tied to our $4.4 million -- sorry, $4.4 billion midpoint, we're seeing about $300 million, our estimate is a $300 million decline in compute, $400 million decline in mobility and an increase in auto of about $100 million. So that's really, Brian, where we're seeing it.

我將採取它的TAM 方面。因此，我們在估算中看到的確實與我們的 440 萬美元掛鉤——抱歉，44 億美元的中點，我們看到大約 3 億美元，我們的估算是計算減少 3 億美元，移動性下降 4 億美元，而移動性增加汽車價值約1億美元。所以這真的是，布賴恩，我們看到它的地方。

And then on the question of where in the compute market are we anticipating or getting some early signals of weakness. Certainly, right now, the immediate corrections are occurring related to consumer laptops, a little bit of enterprise PC area. We're not seeing at the moment the correction in cloud infrastructure or service.

然後是關於計算市場在哪裡我們預計或得到一些疲軟的早期信號的問題。當然，現在，消費者筆記本電腦和企業 PC 領域的一些即時修正正在發生。我們目前沒有看到雲基礎設施或服務的修正。

However, there are -- I would say, discussions going on in those areas that suggest that that's probably coming. And so part of what we've assumed in our both market projections and Q4 revenue projections are some declines starting in Q4 in those segments, modest relative to mobility, however.

但是，我想說，在那些領域正在進行的討論表明這可能即將到來。因此，我們在市場預測和第四季度收入預測中所假設的部分內容是，從第四季度開始，這些細分市場出現了一些下降，但相對於移動性而言是適度的。

Okay. That's interesting. Maybe just switching gears then back to automation. We've also heard that supply issues, not even your MiR, but for other complementary products like 3D cameras or conveyance had also been delaying automation projects. I'm curious if that's something you're also seeing? And the kind of second part of that is, it's not totally fair to ask, but how are you thinking about IA growth rates for next year given the existing and anticipated headwinds, including demand, not only supply?

好的。那很有意思。也許只是切換齒輪然後回到自動化。我們還聽說供應問題，甚至不是您的 MiR，而是其他補充產品（如 3D 相機或運輸工具）也推遲了自動化項目。我很好奇你是否也看到了這種情況？第二部分是，問這個問題並不完全公平，但是鑑於現有和預期的逆風，包括需求，而不僅僅是供應，你如何看待明年的 IA 增長率？

So this is Greg. The -- in terms of supply issues, we are definitely hearing from our partners that they are having trouble procuring some elements of the solutions that they're building. And I think that's part of the headwind that we're seeing in North America that there's staff constraints, and there's also a large number of partially complete projects that they need to get off of their books.

這就是格雷格。 - 在供應問題方面，我們肯定從我們的合作夥伴那裡聽到他們在採購他們正在構建的解決方案的某些元素方面遇到了麻煩。我認為這是我們在北美看到的逆風的一部分，即人員限制，還有大量部分完成的項目需要他們擺脫困境。

So we expect as those supply constraints start to ease that, that will come off as a constraint. And we think that, that will probably happen towards the latter part of this year.

因此，我們預計隨著這些供應限制開始緩解，這將成為一種限制。我們認為，這可能會在今年下半年發生。

In terms of growth projections for '23, it's very early, but we don't see any reason to really deviate from the 30% to 45% range that we've been talking about in terms of IA growth long term because the end market fundamentals are very, very strong. We have very low market penetration and labor scarcity is still a big factor in all of the markets where we play.

就 23 年的增長預測而言，現在還為時過早，但我們認為沒有任何理由真正偏離我們在 IA 長期增長方面一直在談論的 30% 到 45% 的範圍，因為終端市場基本面非常非常強大。我們的市場滲透率非常低，勞動力稀缺仍然是我們所從事的所有市場的一個重要因素。

Our next question comes from the line of Sidney Ho of Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Sidney Ho。

Great. I want to double-click on the mobility market. I think most of us understand the order pattern of the largest customer. But excluding that customer is your revenue growth more closely tied to smartphone sales, meaning they are more reflective of current demand? The reason I ask is that if we start hearing smartphone inventory getting closer to normal levels, say, by the end of this year, does that mean you will start seeing more tested revenue growth in Q1? Or do we have to wait a little longer because your customers may not meet extra tested capacity until later?

偉大的。我想雙擊移動市場。我想我們大多數人都了解最大客戶的訂單模式。但排除該客戶，您的收入增長是否與智能手機銷售更緊密相關，這意味著它們更能反映當前的需求？我問的原因是，如果我們開始聽到智能手機庫存接近正常水平，例如，到今年年底，這是否意味著您將在第一季度開始看到更多經過測試的收入增長？還是我們必須再等一會兒，因為您的客戶可能要等到以後才能滿足額外的測試容量？

Yes. So good question. I would roughly say that in the smartphone world, tester capacity precedes unit production by about 3 months. So what we're seeing in the decline in our third quarter for tester capacity demand reflects a unit production reduction of smartphones in the fourth quarter primarily.

是的。這麼好的問題。我粗略地說，在智能手機世界中，測試儀的產能比單位生產早了大約 3 個月。因此，我們在第三季度看到的測試儀容量需求下降主要反映了第四季度智能手機的單位產量減少。

So if we're thinking about next year, then we would -- we should start to see tester demand pick back up 3 months prior to major phone launches or a return to growth in the China market, for example, that's sort of the model.

因此，如果我們考慮明年，那麼我們應該會在主要手機發布或中國市場恢復增長之前 3 個月開始看到測試人員的需求回升，例如，這就是模式.

Okay. That's helpful. My follow-up question is on the Memory Test. You called out the strength in Memory Test in second quarter, and you still expect the TAM to be about $1 billion this year. But many Memory suppliers are likely going to cut CapEx quite a bit and slow down production. When do you think you will feel these adjustments in your revenue? Or is increased complexity and market share gains enough to offset these headwinds?

好的。這很有幫助。我的後續問題是關於記憶測試。您在第二季度指出了 Memory Test 的實力，您仍然預計今年的 TAM 約為 10 億美元。但許多內存供應商可能會大幅削減資本支出並放慢生產速度。您認為您的收入何時會感受到這些調整？還是增加的複雜性和市場份額的增加足以抵消這些不利因素？

Yes. I think in Memory, it's a little different -- and we don't expect to see much of a correction because there's some tester obsolescence occurring in the new DDR5 and LPDDR5 interfaces that are growing in share in the DRAM world, require brand-new testers. And all the fab capacity that's been put in place in 2022 to produce that class of device that should start growing in the server world and in the phone world in 2023, will need to be facilitated with testers in the second half of this year going into next year.

是的。我認為在內存方面，它有點不同——我們預計不會看到太大的修正，因為新的 DDR5 和 LPDDR5 接口在 DRAM 世界中的份額正在增長，需要全新的測試儀測試人員。 2022 年已經到位的所有晶圓廠產能，用於生產應該在 2023 年在服務器世界和手機世界開始增長的此類設備，將需要在今年下半年通過測試人員來促進明年。

So I think there's a bit of a lag between the CapEx investment on the front end and the tester investment on the back end. And we think at least through the early part of 2023, despite what we're hearing in Memory from the suppliers in terms of bit growth and everything else that these obsolescence -- technological obsolescence events will have to be solved with additional tester capacity because of the old tester just can't be reused.

所以我認為前端的資本支出投資和後端的測試人員投資之間存在一些滯後。我們認為至少到 2023 年初，儘管我們從內存供應商那裡聽到了比特增長和其他所有這些過時的情況——技術過時事件將不得不通過額外的測試器容量來解決，因為舊的測試儀不能重複使用。

Our next question comes from the line of Joseph Moore of Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的約瑟夫摩爾。

In the past, you guys have sort of talked about the relationship between the wafer fab equipment market, particularly the logic portion and your SOC Test business, obviously, you're kind of diverging now. And I'm not asking you to make a call on WFE, which I think most of us do expect will probably contract. But can you just talk a little bit about that relationship and this contraction that you're seeing seems a little bit at odds with how much logic capacity is coming online and which -- how much stuff would presumably need to be tested? Just give us some context on that relationship.

過去，你們有點談論晶圓廠設備市場之間的關係，特別是邏輯部分和你們的 SOC 測試業務，顯然，你們現在有點分歧。而且我並不是要你打電話給 WFE，我認為我們大多數人確實希望它可能會收縮。但是你能談談這種關係嗎？你所看到的這種收縮似乎與上線多少邏輯容量以及可能需要測試多少東西有點不一致？只是給我們一些關於這種關係的背景。

You're right, it is at odds. It doesn't correlate well. It suggests that there would be some underutilized, either underutilized fab capacity for a period of time or there will be wafer die banking going on. In other words, the fabs will keep running, but the devices themselves may sit untested, undiced, unpackaged for some period of time.

你是對的，這是矛盾的。它沒有很好的相關性。這表明將有一些未充分利用，或者在一段時間內未充分利用的晶圓廠產能，或者將有晶圓芯片庫正在進行。換句話說，晶圓廠將繼續運行，但設備本身可能會在一段時間內未經測試、未切割、未包裝。

So I think that is likely to be the case for a little bit of a period of time coming in the next 6 to 9 months. But usually or historically, that washes itself out at the back end of the 6- to 12-month correction. But that's kind of what I would expect.

因此，我認為在接下來的 6 到 9 個月的一段時間內，可能會出現這種情況。但通常或從歷史上看，這會在 6 到 12 個月的修正後自行消失。但這正是我所期望的。

Okay. And then for my follow-up, on the last question you kind of referenced technology transitions in Memory. If you talked about DDR5, I didn't hear it, but can you talk a little bit about is DDR5 timing kind of getting pushed back? Is that a factor in DRAM being a little lower this year and what does that tell you about kind of your Memory business prospects for next year?

好的。然後在我的後續行動中，關於最後一個問題，您提到了內存中的技術轉換。如果你談到 DDR5，我沒聽到，但你能談談 DDR5 的時序會被推遲嗎？這是今年 DRAM 價格略低的一個因素嗎？這對您明年的內存業務前景有何影響？

Yes, it absolutely does. This year, we expected -- if you go back to the fourth quarter of last year, the DDR5 would be a bigger part of the market and our business in 2022. With the delay of Sapphire Rapids and such into 2023, a lot of that tooling pushed out. However, the market kind of held up because what filled in behind that was pretty robust investment for some new suppliers in China. All year long, they've been very aggressively ramping capacity. And so it turns out, despite the delay in DDR5, 2022 is a pretty good year for Memory.

是的，確實如此。今年，我們預計——如果你回到去年第四季度，DDR5 將在 2022 年成為市場和我們業務的更大一部分。隨著 Sapphire Rapids 等推遲到 2023 年，其中很多工具推出。然而，市場有點支撐，因為在中國的一些新供應商的投資相當強勁。整整一年，他們一直在非常積極地提高產能。事實證明，儘管 DDR5 出現延遲，但 2022 年對於內存來說是相當不錯的一年。

So when we look into 2023, there could be a little bit more of an incremental delay. I think everybody is hearing about maybe Sapphire Rapids is going to get split out another few months or so. But it's coming. We're getting close to escape velocity, I think. So -- and we're seeing the orders, we're seeing the orders for capacity for that coming in now. So that's what gives us some pretty -- a little bit more confidence on the Memory side than we're seeing on the SOC side.

因此，當我們展望 2023 年時，可能會有更多的增量延遲。我想每個人都聽說過 Sapphire Rapids 可能會再分幾個月左右。但它來了。我想我們正在接近逃逸速度。所以 - 我們看到了訂單，我們看到了現在的產能訂單。所以這就是給我們一些漂亮的東西 - 在內存方面比我們在 SOC 方面看到的更有信心。

Our next question comes from the line of Krish Sankar of Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Krish Sankar。

Question, I had 2 of them. First on Mark or Greg, to the extent you can answer it, a question on next year. Do you worry that if and when mobile demand starts getting better next year and the auto industrial segment could roll over and wouldn't that be more detrimental to your margins? How do you think about that transition? If you can answer it, and then I have a follow-up.

問題，我有兩個。首先是關於馬克或格雷格，如果你能回答，明年的問題。您是否擔心如果明年移動需求開始好轉，汽車工業部門可能會翻身，這不會更不利於您的利潤嗎？您如何看待這種轉變？如果你能回答，然後我有後續。

Yes, I don't think the margin between auto and mobile is that significant for us, frankly. I wouldn't say that there's a mix shift going on there that it's going to be a headwind or a tailwind. They're pretty blended close to each other.

是的，坦率地說，我認為汽車和移動設備之間的差距對我們來說並不那麼重要。我不會說那裡正在發生混合轉變，這將是逆風或順風。它們相互融合得非常接近。

As to when we would expect mobile to return, that's -- we know at least from the pattern from our largest customer that that's a Q2, 3Q phenomena. And we see no change to that sort of timing just based on their product introduction cycles.

至於我們預計移動何時回歸，那是 - 我們至少從我們最大客戶的模式中知道這是第二季度、第三季度的現象。僅根據他們的產品推出週期，我們認為這種時間安排沒有任何變化。

So for Teradyne's point of view, we would expect the big changes to occur in those 2 periods. There should be a little bit of pickup in Q1, a modest pickup, I would say, related to some other manufacturers, phone introductions, but 2Q, 3Q is the big quarter.

因此，就泰瑞達的觀點而言，我們預計這兩個時期會發生重大變化。 Q1 應該會有一點回升，我會說適度回升，與其他一些製造商、手機介紹有關，但 2Q、3Q 是大季度。

Got it. That's very helpful. And then a follow-up, you touched upon a little bit of a decoupling between front-end WFE and Test investments. I just wanted to like go into one subset of that, which is China. It seems like some of the Chinese OSATs have slowed down spending, but the front-end spending is still continuing. I'm just kind of curious of your view on how China evolves for Test spending and for Teradyne.

知道了。這很有幫助。然後跟進，您談到了前端 WFE 和測試投資之間的一點脫鉤。我只是想進入其中的一個子集，那就是中國。似乎一些中國 OSAT 已經放緩了支出，但前端支出仍在繼續。我只是有點好奇你對中國如何在測試支出和泰瑞達方面發展的看法。

Yes, China is -- and it's not just China, but I would say that the fab investments, generally speaking, are continuing unabated. Going back to that utilization question, you could make the argument that the 3-nanometer investments that have been made going back now over a year are hugely underutilized because no revenue is yet to be produced off of that.

是的，中國是——而且不僅僅是中國，但我想說的是，總的來說，晶圓廠的投資有增無減。回到那個利用率問題，您可以提出這樣的論點，即現在過去一年多的 3 納米投資沒有得到充分利用，因為還沒有產生任何收入。

So the tooling -- the advanced time to tool and tune the recipe for 3-nanometer has become an unprecedentedly long cycle. And so all of that fab capacity is "underutilized until next year revenue starts flowing" specifically back to China. There's a disconnect between Test, lead times and thinking and fab lead times.

所以工具——3納米的工具和調整配方的先進時間已經成為一個前所未有的長周期。因此，所有這些晶圓廠產能“在明年收入開始流入之前都沒有得到充分利用”，特別是流回中國。測試、交貨時間與思考和製造交貨時間之間存在脫節。

Fabs tend to get put in a whole slug of capacity with all of the front-end equipment installed quarters before production starts. Cash tends to be added as a spot market ad. So once the fab starts running, the initial capacity gets facilitated in Test in a quarter, devices ramp up and output of the fab ramps up in subsequent quarters and incrementally Test ramps up as well. So Test is a much smoother deployment than a fab.

在生產開始之前，晶圓廠往往會在所有前端設備安裝區的情況下投入大量產能。現金往往作為現貨市場廣告添加。因此，一旦晶圓廠開始運行，初始產能將在一個季度內進行測試，設備會增加，晶圓廠的產量會在隨後的季度增加，並且測試也會逐步增加。所以測試是一個比晶圓廠更順利的部署。

And then the last thing, of course, going on in China, I think, is just the national priority around independence and access to technology has focused mainly on fab technology and therefore, it's the most, I would say, viewed as sort of threatening and enabling at the same time. And therefore, there's been a more, I'd say, resilient maybe counter economical push to invest in fab capacity there.

最後，當然，在中國發生的最後一件事，我認為，只是圍繞獨立的國家優先事項，技術的獲取主要集中在晶圓廠技術上，因此，我會說，這是最被視為某種威脅的事情並同時啟用。因此，我會說，有一個更具彈性的可能會反經濟推動在那裡投資晶圓廠產能。

Our business in China is very strong. We have one major headwind, which is the largest single consumer of Test equipment in China, Huawei is somebody we cannot serve. But outside of that, we have a very strong business and a very decent growth that we're seeing there.

我們在中國的業務非常強大。我們有一個主要的不利因素，那就是中國最大的測試設備單一消費者，華為是我們無法服務的人。但除此之外，我們有一個非常強大的業務和我們在那裡看到的非常可觀的增長。

Our final question comes from Mehdi Hosseini of SFG.

我們的最後一個問題來自 SFG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

I want to go back to SOC Test. Mark, when I look at the trends since 2015, the SOC Test grew on a year-over-year basis. And perhaps there are 2 factors there. The parallel Test went away towards the end of the last decade and also the 5G that helped -- have started to be incremental in late 2019. And now we're here, you're guiding to $4.4 billion, which is still above the 2020 level.

我想回到 SOC 測試。馬克，當我查看自 2015 年以來的趨勢時，SOC 測試逐年增長。也許有兩個因素。平行測試在過去十年結束時消失了，而幫助的 5G 在 2019 年末開始增加。現在我們到了，你的目標是 44 億美元，這仍然高於 2020 年等級。

So with that as a context, what gives you the confidence that we should see a quick snapback in SOC Test in '23 especially since your largest customer is expected to continue with bifurcation, not moving everything to the next leading edge [note]? I have a follow-up.

因此，以此為背景，是什麼讓您有信心在 23 年看到 SOC 測試的快速回升，特別是因為您的最大客戶預計將繼續分叉，而不是將所有內容都轉移到下一個前沿 [注]？我有後續行動。

Okay. Good, Mehdi. You're right. Monotonic growth since 2015 has been true. And even with the $4.4 billion current midpoint view of the market in 2022, the trend line growth off of 2015 is still kind of a 10% CAGR. And we said all along, we run the business and expect volatility and sort of manage the business to the trend line. And the 10% CAGR is kind of in line with our midterm earnings model, too.

好的。很好，邁赫迪。你是對的。自 2015 年以來的單調增長是真實的。即使以 2022 年 44 億美元的當前市場中點來看，2015 年的趨勢線增長仍然是 10% 的複合年增長率。我們一直說，我們經營業務並預期波動性並將業務管理到趨勢線。 10% 的複合年增長率也符合我們的中期收益模型。

So it's hard after so many years of monotonic sequential growth maybe to absorb that. But I think most of all of us have been around long enough to know that's part of history and not strange.

因此，經過這麼多年的單調連續增長，可能很難吸收它。但我認為我們中的大多數人已經存在了足夠長的時間，知道這是歷史的一部分，並不奇怪。

So the snapback or not in 2023. One thing I might want to just rewind a bit and preface my remarks on is that our tester market and our tester business demand is very sensitive to the growth rate of our customers. So for example, if a customer of ours is growing units at 4% and a year and creates a certain tester demand for us, if their growth rate nominally increases from 4% to 5%, small, small impact on their business, for Teradyne, that can be a 20%, 25% acceleration of demand for us because we -- our demand is driven off the first derivative, let's say, of customer growth.

所以在 2023 年是否會反彈。我可能想稍微回顧一下並作為我的前言，我們的測試儀市場和我們的測試儀業務需求對我們客戶的增長率非常敏感。例如，如果我們的客戶以每年 4% 的速度增長單位，並為我們創造了一定的測試儀需求，如果他們的增長率名義上從 4% 增加到 5%，對泰瑞達的業務影響很小，很小，這對我們來說可能是 20%、25% 的需求加速，因為我們的需求是由客戶增長的一階導數驅動的。

And so obviously, we're very sensitive to what the macroeconomic conditions are going to be in 2023 around the growth rate of our customers. The technological issue around our largest customer in the smartphone market and the move to 3 nanometer, I think that's kind of baked in and is going to happen. Macroeconomically, what's going to be going on in the world and the inventory digestion or not that may be lagging from Q4 into early Q1, it's hard to tell right now. We're kind of reading tea leaves based on what we've seen happen, which I said is maybe about $100 million of demand drop out to what we're anticipating will happen.

很明顯，我們對 2023 年圍繞客戶增長率的宏觀經濟狀況非常敏感。圍繞我們在智能手機市場的最大客戶的技術問題以及向 3 納米的轉變，我認為這已經根深蒂固並且將會發生。從宏觀經濟上看，世界將發生什麼，以及可能從第四季度到第一季度初的庫存消化與否，現在很難說。我們正在根據我們所看到的情況來閱讀茶葉，我說這可能是大約 1 億美元的需求下降到我們預期會發生的情況。

So I really wouldn't want to get too far out on the limb or forecast in 2023, but those are the factors at play.

所以我真的不想在 2023 年預測或預測太遠，但這些都是在起作用的因素。

And one quick follow-up for Sanjay. Given all the color and guide, it seems like this year, revenues could be down mid-teens, plus/minus. And you're adjusting your OpEx -- OpEx growth of only 4% to 6%. Looking to next year, if we get a snapback, you do benefit from an easy compare from '22 into '23, should I assume that your OpEx growth would accelerate again? Or should I assume that the OpEx growth will be minimal to like, let's say, mid-single-digit percent, 5%?

以及對 Sanjay 的快速跟進。鑑於所有的顏色和指南，今年似乎收入可能會下降十幾歲左右，加/減。而且您正在調整您的運營支出——運營支出僅增長 4% 到 6%。展望明年，如果我們獲得回彈，您確實受益於從 22 年到 23 年的簡單比較，我是否應該假設您的運營支出增長會再次加速？或者我應該假設 OpEx 增長將是最小的，比如說，5% 的中個位數百分比？

Yes. So Mehdi, this year, we had an anticipated plan. And obviously, as Mark said, we manage the business on a trend line, and we believe the fundamentals that we laid out in our January call and the earnings model are still intact in Test and IA.

是的。所以 Mehdi，今年，我們有一個預期的計劃。顯然，正如馬克所說，我們按照趨勢線管理業務，我們相信我們在 1 月份電話會議中列出的基本面和收益模型在測試和 IA 中仍然完好無損。

With that backdrop, we did have a plan to increase OpEx 11% to 13%. And as I noted, we curtailed that, we believe in delaying some expenditures that aren't going to impact our long-term competitiveness. We haven't gone through the detailed planning in 2023. Of course, we'll provide that update in January. But my expectation is that we're going to keep the focus on what's going to help us be successful in the long term.

在這種背景下，我們確實計劃將運營支出提高 11% 至 13%。正如我所指出的，我們削減了這一點，我們相信推遲一些不會影響我們長期競爭力的支出。我們還沒有完成 2023 年的詳細規劃。當然，我們會在 1 月份提供更新。但我的期望是，我們將把重點放在有助於我們長期成功的事情上。

And we're going to -- for example, we're going to keep on investing in industrial automation to secure the market going forward. We believe that, that market is still sub-5% penetrated, very good positions in our portfolio companies that go to market in that fashion.

我們將——例如，我們將繼續投資於工業自動化，以確保未來的市場。我們認為，該市場的滲透率仍低於 5%，在我們以這種方式進入市場的投資組合公司中處於非常好的位置。

So my expectation is we're going to still operate at the kind of the 5% to 15% there and still keep our foot on the gas to grow to help drive that top line and capture more business. And in the Test portfolio, we're going to continue to ensure we have a very strong road map and a good go-to-market. The exact numbers I don't have right now, but the fundamentals of our business are the same.

因此，我的期望是，我們仍將在那里以 5% 到 15% 的比例運營，並繼續保持增長，以幫助推動收入增長並獲得更多業務。在測試產品組合中，我們將繼續確保我們擁有非常強大的路線圖和良好的市場推廣。我現在沒有確切的數字，但我們業務的基本面是相同的。

We're going through -- we're predicting to go through a little bit of a weaker second half than we anticipated. But at some point, this will snap back, which quarter that occurs. But we're going to keep our investment thesis intact.

我們正在經歷——我們預計下半年會比我們預期的要弱一些。但在某個時候，這會突然反彈，發生在哪個季度。但我們將保持我們的投資論點不變。

And variable comp pool with revenue as we talked earlier.

正如我們之前談到的，可變補償池與收入。

Okay. Folks, we are out of time. Mehdi, thank you for the question, and thanks, everybody, for their questions and attention. If you have follow-ups, please reach out, and we look forward to talking to you in the days and weeks ahead. Bye-bye.

好的。伙計們，我們沒時間了。 Mehdi，謝謝你的提問，也謝謝大家的提問和關注。如果您有後續跟進，請聯繫我們，我們期待在未來幾天和幾週內與您交談。再見。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。