泰瑞達 (TER) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

(technical difficulty)

（技術性困難）

Year 2022 conference call. (Operator Instructions)

2022 年度電話會議。（接線員指示）

I would now like to hand the call over to Andy Blanchard. Please go ahead.

我現在想把電話交給 Andy Blanchard。請開始。

Thank you, Latif. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our discussion of Teradyne's most recent financial results. I'm joined this morning by our CFO -- CEO, Mark Jagiela; President, Greg Smith; and CFO, Sanjay Mehta. Following our opening remarks, we'll provide details of our performance for 2022's second quarter, along with our outlook for the third quarter of '22.

謝謝你，Latif。各位早安，歡迎參加我們對 Teradyne 最新財務結果的討論。今天早上與我一同出席的有我們的 CEO Mark Jagiela、總裁 Greg Smith，以及 CFO Sanjay Mehta。在開場致詞之後，我們將提供 2022 年第二季表現的細節，並說明我們對 2022 年第三季的展望。

The press release containing our second quarter results was issued last evening. We're providing slides on the Investor page of the website that may be helpful to you in following the discussion. Replays of this call will be available via the same page after the call ends.

包含我們第二季結果的新聞稿已於昨晚發布。我們在網站的投資人頁面提供投影片，可能有助於您跟進本次討論。本次電話會議結束後，亦可透過同一頁面收聽重播。

The matters that we discuss today will include forward-looking statements that involve risk factors that could cause Teradyne's results to differ materially from management's current expectations. We encourage you to review the safe harbor statement contained in the earnings release as well as our most recent SEC filings. Additionally, those forward-looking statements are made as of today, and we take no obligation to update them as a result of developments occurring after this call.

我們今天討論的事項將包含前瞻性陳述，並涉及可能導致 Teradyne 結果與管理層目前預期有重大差異的風險因素。我們鼓勵您查閱財報新聞稿中的安全港聲明，以及我們最新的 SEC 申報文件。此外，這些前瞻性陳述係以今日為準，我們不承擔因本次電話會議後發生之發展而更新該等陳述的義務。

During today's call, we'll make reference to non-GAAP financial measures. We've posted additional information concerning these non-GAAP financial measures, including reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure where available on the Investor page of the website.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將提及非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。我們已在網站投資人頁面張貼關於這些非 GAAP 財務衡量指標的補充資訊，包括（如可得）與最直接可比的 GAAP 財務衡量指標之調節表。

Looking ahead between now and our next earnings call, Teradyne expects to participate in technology or industrial-focused investor conferences hosted by KeyBanc, Davidson, Jefferies, Deutsche Bank, Citi, Evercore, Piper Sandler and Goldman Sachs.

展望從現在到下一次財報電話會議之間，Teradyne 預期將參加由 KeyBanc、Davidson、Jefferies、德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）、花旗（Citi）、Evercore、Piper Sandler 與高盛（Goldman Sachs）主辦、聚焦科技或工業的投資人會議。

Now let's get on with the rest of the agenda. First, Mark and Greg will comment on our recent results and the market conditions as we enter the new quarter. Sanjay will then offer more details on our quarterly results along with our guidance for the third quarter. We'll then answer your questions, and this call is scheduled for 1 hour.

現在我們繼續接下來的議程。首先，Mark 與 Greg 將評論我們近期的結果，以及進入新季度時的市場狀況。接著 Sanjay 將就我們的季度結果提供更多細節，並給出第三季的財測指引。之後我們將回答各位的問題，本次電話會議預計 1 小時。

Mark?

Mark？

Hello, everyone, and thanks for joining us. Greg will summarize our Q2 results, and I'll comment on the full year outlook and technology drivers we expect in 2023. Sanjay will then take you through the financial details, including our outlook for the third quarter. Greg?

各位好，感謝加入我們。Greg 將總結我們第二季的結果，我將評論全年展望以及我們預期在 2023 年的技術驅動因素。接著 Sanjay 會帶各位了解財務細節，包括我們對第三季的展望。Greg？

Thanks, Mark, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝，Mark，各位早安。

Teradyne's second quarter sales and profits were above the midpoint of our guidance in revenue and profit with sales of $841 million and $1.21 in non-GAAP earnings per share. From a market perspective, we're seeing mixed signals. While the pressure to improve lead times in some Test markets is as strong as ever, and we continue to work through supply issues, we have seen some softening in mobility demand, our largest Test market.

Teradyne 第二季的銷售與獲利均高於我們財測指引的中位數，銷售額為 8.41 億美元，非 GAAP 每股盈餘為 1.21 美元。從市場角度來看，我們看到的訊號好壞參半。雖然在部分測試（Test）市場中縮短交期的壓力一如既往地強，我們也持續處理供應問題，但我們已看到行動裝置需求（我們最大的測試市場）出現一些走弱。

Also, it now looks like IA growth in the second half will be similar to first half growth.

此外，目前看來工業自動化（IA）在下半年的成長將與上半年的成長相近。

In today's call, we'll try to provide some context on how we're navigating this complex environment. Diving into the details of the second quarter. Semiconductor Test revenues were in line with our plan as were profits. The Automotive and Industrial end markets served by our Eagle platform were notably strong in the quarter.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將嘗試提供一些背景，說明我們如何在這個複雜環境中前行。深入第二季細節：半導體測試（Semiconductor Test）營收符合我們的計畫，獲利亦然。由我們 Eagle 平台服務的汽車與工業終端市場在本季表現特別強勁。

In Memory, Flash final Test and DRAM wafer sort was the strongest markets. From a strategic perspective, Semi Test had a strong quarter of competitive design wins for both R&D applications and for devices that we expect to ramp in volume production over the next year or so. The design wins were in a wide range of end markets. There were UltraFLEX family design wins in mobility, where the systems architecture supports higher throughput for large complex devices especially when time to market is an important factor.

在記憶體方面，Flash 最終測試（final Test）與 DRAM 晶圓分類（wafer sort）是最強勁的市場。從策略角度來看，半導體測試（Semi Test）在本季取得強勁的競爭性設計導入（design win），涵蓋研發（R&D）應用，以及我們預期在未來一年左右將於量產中放量的裝置。這些設計導入涵蓋廣泛的終端市場。在行動裝置領域，UltraFLEX 系列取得設計導入，其系統架構可為大型複雜裝置提供更高吞吐量，特別是在上市時程（time to market）為重要因素時。

Eagle Test had a significant design win in a battery management application where the system's highly accurate voltage measurement capability enables customers to get to market faster with better device specifications, delivering higher value.

Eagle Test 在電池管理應用中取得一項重要的設計導入；該系統高度精準的電壓量測能力，使客戶能以更佳的裝置規格更快上市，創造更高價值。

In Systems Test, sales were on plan in the quarter with solid year-on-year growth for storage Test and production board Test. At LitePoint, strong wireless Test demand for WiFi 6E, WiFi 7 R&D and ultra-wideband Test products drove double-digit year-on-year growth.

在系統測試（Systems Test）方面，本季銷售符合計畫，儲存測試（storage Test）與量產板測試（production board Test）均呈現穩健的年對年成長。在 LitePoint，WiFi 6E、WiFi 7 研發（R&D）以及超寬頻（ultra-wideband）測試產品的強勁無線測試需求，帶動年對年雙位數成長。

Notably, we're seeing strong interest in WiFi 7 development Test where we are qualified at all major chipset vendors and to date, we have won 20 of 21 design-in opportunities with end product design teams. This sets us up to expand our already high share of WiFi production Test as these products ramp.

值得注意的是，我們看到市場對 WiFi 7 開發測試（development Test）有強烈興趣；我們已在所有主要晶片組供應商取得資格認證，且截至目前，在與終端產品設計團隊的 21 個設計導入機會中，我們贏得了 20 個。這使我們在這些產品放量時，得以擴大我們在 WiFi 量產測試（production Test）中原本就很高的市占。

In Industrial Automation, revenues grew 10% from last year's Q2 and 19% for the first half. This lower-than-planned growth in the first half is attributed to 2 primary factors and warrants a few comments. The first factor was foreign exchange. The majority of IA revenue is linked to the euro. For example, within Europe, at UR, we saw a robust 34% unit growth in the first half of 2022 but the decline of the euro with respect to the dollar has muted UR revenue growth in that region to 20%.

在工業自動化（Industrial Automation）方面，營收較去年第二季成長 10%，上半年成長 19%。上半年成長低於原先規劃主要歸因於兩個因素，值得補充說明。第一個因素是外匯。IA 營收多數與歐元連動。舉例來說，在歐洲地區，Universal Robots（UR）於 2022 年上半年單位數量成長強勁、達 34%，但由於歐元兌美元走貶，使 UR 在該地區的營收成長被壓抑至 20%。

The dollars appreciation was a revenue headwind in the first half and Sanjay will comment further on the full year foreign exchange outlook.

美元升值在上半年對營收造成逆風，Sanjay 將進一步評論全年外匯展望。

The second factor is lower regional demand that can be traced to a variety of region-specific causes, including COVID lockdowns in China and distribution partner staff shortages in North America where end demand remains quite strong. Staff shortages for integration partners is an ongoing challenge.

第二個因素是部分地區需求較弱，可追溯至多項區域特定原因，包括中國的 COVID 封控，以及北美地區通路合作夥伴人力短缺（儘管終端需求仍相當強勁）。整合合作夥伴的人力短缺仍是一項持續的挑戰。

In the past, we've noted that our distribution partners struggle to grow staff at the same rate as IA demand growth. Our strategy to overcome this is to use software technology and plug-and-play applications from UR+ and MiRGo partners to shorten the deployment time to make these critical staff more productive. But an equally important part of the strategy is to build a robust OEM channel. For example, at Universal Robots, our OEM channel, which includes verticals like welding, power grid maintenance and order fulfillment is doing very well, growing 39% in the first half of 2022. The OEM channel is an important complement to our distributor-based channel because these OEM partners deliver a mostly complete solution to their customers that can be put in operation almost immediately.

過去我們曾提到，通路合作夥伴在擴編人力方面，往往無法跟上 IA 需求成長的速度。我們克服此問題的策略，是運用軟體技術，以及來自 UR+ 與 MiRGo 夥伴的即插即用（plug-and-play）應用，縮短部署時間，讓這些關鍵人力更具生產力。但同樣重要的策略之一，是建立強健的 OEM 通路。以 Universal Robots 為例，我們的 OEM 通路涵蓋焊接、電網維護與訂單履約等垂直領域，表現非常好，2022 年上半年成長 39%。OEM 通路是我們以經銷商為主通路的重要補充，因為這些 OEM 夥伴能向其客戶交付大致完整的解決方案，幾乎可立即投入運作。

In many cases, these OEMs have an existing distribution network that can reach customers beyond our traditional channel. These partners can scale much more efficiently than distributors that add staff in proportion to revenue growth for customer support. We are actively adding new OEM partners to serve these and new market verticals.

在許多情況下，這些 OEM 已擁有既有的經銷網路，可觸及我們傳統通路以外的客戶。相較於需隨營收成長按比例增聘客服人力的經銷商，這些夥伴能更有效率地擴張。我們正積極新增 OEM 夥伴，以服務上述及新的市場垂直領域。

Now I'll hand it back to Mark for more on the market, the second half outlook and the demand drivers for next year.

現在我把時間交還給 Mark，請他進一步說明市場、下半年展望，以及明年的需求驅動因素。

Thanks, Greg. While the long-term drivers in our Test and automation markets remain firmly in place, the recent deceleration we're experiencing in Test will impact our full year results.

謝謝，Greg。雖然我們測試與自動化市場的長期驅動因素依然穩固，但我們近期在測試（Test）所經歷的放緩將影響我們的全年結果。

Over the past few weeks, we've seen a marked slowdown in SOC and wireless tester demand in the second half related to declines in end market shipments of smartphones, compute products and associated infrastructure. These demand adjustments are -- these demand adjustments are happening in real time, and we are projecting this will continue over the next several weeks as the market continues to align their production plans and inventory levels to this new reality.

在過去幾週，我們看到下半年 SoC 與無線測試機需求明顯放緩，與智慧型手機、運算產品及相關基礎設施的終端市場出貨下滑有關。這些需求調整正在即時發生——這些需求調整正在即時發生——我們預期在接下來幾週將持續，因為市場仍在調整其生產計畫與庫存水位，以符合這個新的現實。

This extends across multiple customers and device types, including apps processors, power management and RF. I will note that auto, MCU, industrial and Memory Test demand remains strong entering Q3 and we've seen no deceleration of demand in these markets.

這種情況橫跨多家客戶與多種裝置類型，包括應用處理器（apps processors）、電源管理與射頻（RF）。我也要指出，進入第三季時，汽車、MCU、工業與記憶體測試需求仍然強勁，我們在這些市場尚未看到需求放緩。

When forecasting the second half of 2022, we are expecting the Test realignments we've seen in the past few weeks are not a blip and that further adjustments are coming. Beyond the reductions we've already seen, several customers have indicated they are in a capital review phase, which we are assuming will lead to some additional impact to Q4 demand.

在預測 2022 年下半年時，我們預期過去幾週所見的測試（Test）重新調整並非短暫波動，且後續仍將有進一步調整。除了我們已經看到的下修之外，已有數位客戶表示其正處於資本支出審查階段，我們假設這將對第四季需求造成一些額外影響。

At a macro level, we also assume that China's smartphone volumes will not accelerate through the remainder of the year. We also believe that short-term global economic conditions will remain weak resulting in softening consumer demand and associated electronics inventory digestion.

在宏觀層面，我們也假設中國的智慧型手機出貨量在今年剩餘時間不會加速。我們也認為短期全球經濟狀況將維持疲弱，導致消費需求轉弱，以及相關電子產品庫存去化。

In IA, we forecast that our second half business will continue to grow at about a 20% year-over-year level, consistent with our achievements in the first half but below our 35% goal.

在 IA 方面，我們預估下半年業務將持續以約 20% 的年增率成長，與上半年達成的表現一致，但低於我們 35% 的目標。

As Greg highlighted, we believe that China demand will remain muted. Distributor labor shortages in North America will limit the rate of installation expansion in the short term and FX headwinds will not abate. Summing it all up, we now expect our second half revenue to be slightly lower than the first half, resulting in a roughly 52%, 48% first half, second half split. Our laTest forecast projects that 2022 SOC Test market will be in the range of $4.2 billion to $4.6 billion, down from our April estimate of about $5 billion, while in Memory, we expect the market will remain at about $1 billion.

如 Greg 所強調，我們認為中國需求將持續低迷。北美經銷商的勞動力短缺將在短期內限制安裝擴張的速度，而匯率逆風也不會緩解。綜合而言，我們目前預期下半年營收將略低於上半年，形成約 52%、48% 的上半年、下半年占比。我們最新的預測顯示，2022 年 SOC 測試市場規模將落在 42 億至 46 億美元之間，低於我們 4 月約 50 億美元的估計；而在記憶體方面，我們預期市場將維持在約 10 億美元。

To reiterate, much of our forecasted slowdown assumes continued yet to be identified demand decline in the fourth quarter.

再次重申，我們預測的放緩在很大程度上是假設第四季將出現持續、但目前尚未被辨識的需求下滑。

Looking further ahead, after 6 consecutive years of robust SOC Test market growth, we have entered a period of demand slowdown in digestion. This is not uncommon as we've seen this most recently in 2013 and 2015. And over the years, we've built our operating model to anticipate these kind of demand swings.

展望更長期，在 SOC 測試市場連續 6 年強勁成長之後，我們已進入需求放緩與去化的階段。這並不罕見，最近一次我們在 2013 年與 2015 年也曾見到。多年來，我們已建立營運模式以因應這類需求波動。

Predicting the depth and duration of these corrections is challenging, but in each of the last 3 corrections, growth returned after 6 to 12 months with the subsequent year showing strong growth. The ramp of 3 nanometer starting in 2023, followed by gate-all-around and increasing multichip packaging remains unaltered drivers of growth ahead.

要預測這些修正的深度與持續時間相當具挑戰性，但在過去 3 次修正中，成長都在 6 到 12 個月後回歸，且其後一年呈現強勁成長。自 2023 年起的 3 奈米量產爬坡，接續的環繞閘極（gate-all-around）以及多晶片封裝的增加，仍是未來成長不變的驅動因素。

Interface transitions in both Flash and DRAM are also imminent. Hyperscalers continue to expand their chip design starts and edge AI as a new class of silicon application gaining momentum.

Flash 與 DRAM 的介面轉換也迫在眉睫。超大規模業者（hyperscalers）持續擴大其晶片設計啟動（design starts），而邊緣 AI 作為一類新的矽應用也正加速取得動能。

In Industrial Automation, the value proposition has only strengthened as the short ROI remains compelling while increased resiliency in a world of questionable labor supply as another motivation to automate.

在工業自動化方面，其價值主張只會更為強化，因為短期投資報酬（ROI）仍具吸引力；同時，在勞動力供給不確定的世界中，提高韌性也成為另一項自動化動機。

So while the first half of 2022 unfolded roughly as outlined in January, the second half is looking considerably softer as we expected just 3 months ago. However, we are confident of our long-term growth strategy and are focused on execution of our design-ins and R&D programs so that we are positioned to capitalize on growth of these markets that we serve.

因此，雖然 2022 年上半年的發展大致如同我們 1 月所概述，但下半年看起來明顯比我們僅 3 個月前的預期更疲弱。然而，我們對長期成長策略充滿信心，並專注於設計導入（design-ins）與研發計畫的執行，以確保我們能把握所服務市場的成長機會。

Sanjay will now take you through the financial details. Sanjay?

接下來 Sanjay 將帶各位了解財務細節。Sanjay？

Thank you, Mark. Good morning, everyone. Today, I'll provide details on our Q2 results, offer additional color on how we're addressing the slowdown in some markets and supply shortages and others and describe our Q3 outlook.

謝謝你，Mark。各位早安。今天我將說明我們第二季（Q2）業績，補充我們如何因應部分市場放緩以及其他市場的供應短缺，並說明第三季（Q3）展望。

Now to Q2. Second quarter sales were $841 million with non-GAAP EPS of $1.21, non-GAAP gross margins were 60.2% and our non-GAAP operating expenses were $251 million, $14 million below mid guidance. The main driver -- sorry -- the main driver of the lower-than-planned OpEx was an Industrial Automation Group or IAG due to lower variable compensation tied to lower revenue projections and slower-than-planned hiring. Non-GAAP operating profit rate was 30.3%. We had 210% customers in the quarter. The tax rate, excluding discrete items for the quarter was 16.9% on a non-GAAP basis. Please note, you should now use 16.5% for the full year non-GAAP tax rate.

接著看 Q2。第二季營收為 8.41 億美元，非 GAAP 每股盈餘（EPS）為 1.21 美元，非 GAAP 毛利率為 60.2%，非 GAAP 營業費用為 2.51 億美元，較指引中位數低 1,400 萬美元。主要原因——抱歉——主要原因是工業自動化事業群（Industrial Automation Group，IAG），由於與較低營收預測連動的變動薪酬較少，以及招募進度慢於原先規劃，導致營業費用低於計畫。非 GAAP 營業利益率為 30.3%。本季我們有 210% 客戶。排除一次性項目後，本季非 GAAP 稅率為 16.9%。請注意，全年非 GAAP 稅率現在請使用 16.5%。

Looking at the results from a business unit perspective. Semi Test revenue was $541 million. SOC revenue was $461 million, driven by strength in automotive and industrial markets. Memory revenue was $81 million, led by Flash final Test and DRAM wafer sort. System Test group had revenue of $135 million, which was up 29% year-over-year. Storage Test sales, including both HDD and system-level Test solutions were $86 million in the quarter, up 49% from Q2 '21. Defense and aerospace and production board Test combined grew 4% year-on-year.

從事業單位角度來看。半導體測試（Semi Test）營收為 5.41 億美元。SOC 營收為 4.61 億美元，主要受惠於車用與工業市場的強勁表現。記憶體營收為 8,100 萬美元，由 Flash 終測（final test）與 DRAM 晶圓分類（wafer sort）帶動。系統測試事業群（System Test group）營收為 1.35 億美元，年增 29%。儲存測試（Storage Test）銷售額（包含 HDD 與系統層級測試解決方案）本季為 8,600 萬美元，較 2021 年第二季成長 49%。國防與航太以及生產板測試（production board test）合計年增 4%。

At LitePoint, revenue of $64 million was up 16% from prior year due primarily to strong shipments in WiFi 6E and WiFi 7 and UWB Test systems.

LitePoint 方面，營收 6,400 萬美元，較去年同期成長 16%，主要來自 WiFi 6E、WiFi 7 以及 UWB 測試系統的強勁出貨。

Now to Industrial Automation. Industrial Automation revenue of $101 million in Q2 was up 10% year-over-year. This was lower than expected, as Greg noted. Despite the lower growth, we still expect IA revenue to follow the historical pattern and grow as we move through the year.

接著看工業自動化。第二季工業自動化營收為 1.01 億美元，年增 10%。如 Greg 所提，這低於預期。儘管成長較低，我們仍預期 IA 營收將遵循歷史型態，並隨著年度推進而成長。

UR sales were $883 million in Q2, up 8% year-over-year with the highest growth in Northern Europe. MiR sales were $17 million, up 9% from Q2 '21 in the quarter.

UR 第二季銷售額為 8.83 億美元，年增 8%，其中北歐成長最高。MiR 本季銷售額為 1,700 萬美元，較 2021 年第二季成長 9%。

From a financial perspective, in IA. The group was slightly under breakeven on a non-GAAP operating basis in the second quarter. And for the full year, we expect to be towards the low end of the 5% to 15% profit range we discussed in past calls. We view the roughly 20% growth rate in IA as a short-term situation, as Greg noted.

從財務角度來看，在 IA 方面，該事業群第二季在非 GAAP 營運基礎上略低於損益兩平。就全年而言，我們預期將落在先前電話會議所提 5% 至 15% 利潤區間的低端。如 Greg 所述，我們將 IA 約 20% 的成長率視為短期現象。

Like the company model, the IAG Group operating model naturally Flex is spending down based on profitability, and we're tightening discretionary spending where appropriate. But our long-term IA growth strategy and related investment plans remain unchanged.

如同公司整體模式，IAG 事業群的營運模式會依獲利狀況自然彈性調整支出，我們也會在適當之處收緊可自由裁量的支出。但我們長期的 IA 成長策略及相關投資計畫維持不變。

Shifting to supply. Our Q2 guidance excluded approximately $50 million of revenue tied to our inability to supply customer demand. In Q3, we're excluding a similar $50 million of revenue from our guidance range, primarily in our Test businesses. The shortage of semiconductors ranging from FPGAs to industrial analog continues to impact our production.

接著談供應。由於無法滿足客戶需求，我們的 Q2 指引已排除約 5,000 萬美元的營收。在 Q3，我們也在指引區間中排除類似的 5,000 萬美元營收，主要發生在我們的測試業務。從 FPGA 到工業類比晶片等各類半導體短缺，仍持續影響我們的生產。

As I've noted in prior calls, we're taking numerous actions to harden our supply chain but even with these actions, we expect supply line constraints to remain challenging. I will note these actions and other factors improved our supply situation in Q2, mainly in Test, which enabled higher shipments.

如我在先前電話會議所提，我們正採取多項行動以強化供應鏈，但即使如此，我們仍預期供應端限制將持續具挑戰。我也要指出，這些行動與其他因素在 Q2 改善了我們的供應狀況，主要是在測試業務，使我們得以提高出貨。

Shifting to the balance sheet and cash flow. Our cash and marketable securities at the end of the quarter totaled approximately $900 million, down from $1.2 billion at the end of Q1. We had $70 million in free cash flow in the quarter, reflecting the timing of shipments and supplier prepayments. Over 80% of our shipments occurred in May and June saw our DSO expanded to 74 days, which we expect will decline in the second half of the year.

接著看資產負債表與現金流。截至本季末，我們的現金與有價證券合計約 9 億美元，低於 Q1 期末的 12 億美元。本季自由現金流為 7,000 萬美元，反映出貨時點與對供應商預付款的時間差。我們超過 80% 的出貨發生在 5 月，而 6 月使我們的應收帳款週轉天數（DSO）擴大至 74 天；我們預期下半年將下降。

Other uses of cash in the quarter included share buybacks of $331 million, dividend payments of $18 million and debt retirement of $22 million. At the end of Q2, we're more than 2/3 of the way through our $750 million share repurchase plan for 2022 with $217 million remaining.

本季其他現金用途包括：庫藏股回購 3.31 億美元、股利支付 1,800 萬美元，以及償還債務 2,200 萬美元。截至 Q2 期末，我們 2022 年 7.5 億美元庫藏股回購計畫已完成超過 2/3，尚餘 2.17 億美元。

In October -- sorry, in our October call, we'll note any updates to our share buyback plan.

在 10 月——抱歉，在我們 10 月的電話會議上，我們將說明庫藏股回購計畫是否有任何更新。

Regarding debt. To date, $386 million of convertible bonds have early converted. I'd also like to note several points regarding the strong U.S. dollar and its impact on our results. In our Test portfolio, the majority of revenue and expense are in dollars, so there's not a material foreign exchange impact. In IA businesses, on the other hand, have a large amount of euro-linked expenses and about 50% of their revenue is tied to the euro.

關於負債方面，截至目前已有 3.86 億美元的可轉換公司債提前轉換。我也想就強勢美元及其對我們業績的影響補充幾點。在我們的測試產品組合中，多數營收與費用以美元計價，因此外匯影響並不重大。另一方面，在 IA 業務中，歐元連動的費用占比很高，且約 50% 的營收與歐元掛鉤。

The result is the strong dollar reduces IA's revenue and gross margin in dollars. In the first half, the FX impact reduced our IA growth rate approximately 4 points. Assuming exchange rates remain consistent with July's exchange rate, we expect 6 points of growth headwind for the full year compared to our January projection.

結果是，強勢美元會降低 IA 以美元計價的營收與毛利。上半年，匯率影響使我們的 IA 成長率約減少 4 個百分點。假設匯率維持在 7 月的水準，我們預期相較於 1 月的預測，全年成長將面臨 6 個百分點的逆風。

For IA, the strengthening dollar has a marginal benefit on the OpEx side. The revenue and margin degradation is offset by the OpEx gain, yielding a neutral effect on our operating profit for that segment.

就 IA 而言，美元走強在營業費用（OpEx）端帶來些微好處。營收與毛利的惡化可由 OpEx 的改善所抵銷，使該事業部的營業利益整體影響為中性。

Now to our outlook for Q3. A combination of slowing demand and Test, extending lead times due to material shortages and reduced automation demand in Europe and China results in a lower Q3 outlook than we expected 3 months ago.

接著談我們對第三季（Q3）的展望。需求放緩與測試（Test）業務因材料短缺而導致交期延長，再加上歐洲與中國的自動化需求下降，綜合因素使得我們對 Q3 的展望低於 3 個月前的預期。

As noted, the guidance excludes approximately $50 million of shipments due to material shortages primarily in Test. Also, the guidance assumes we won't see any extended shutdowns of production facilities due to COVID, and we won't see any new trade restrictions.

如前所述，本次指引排除約 5,000 萬美元因材料短缺而無法出貨的金額，主要發生在 Test。此外，本指引假設我們不會因 COVID 而出現任何延長的生產設施停工，也不會出現任何新的貿易限制。

With that said, sales in Q3 are expected to be between $760 million and $840 million, with non-GAAP EPS in a range of $0.90 to $1.16 on 166 million diluted shares. The third quarter guidance excludes the amortization of acquired intangibles. Third quarter gross margins are estimated at 58% to 59%, down from Q2 due to product mix, 2022 investment supply chain resiliency and wage inflation.

在此情況下，我們預期 Q3 銷售額介於 7.60 億至 8.40 億美元之間，非 GAAP 每股盈餘（EPS）介於 0.90 至 1.16 美元，係以 1.66 億股稀釋後股數計算。第三季指引不包含併購無形資產攤銷。第三季毛利率估計為 58% 至 59%，較 Q2 下滑，原因包括產品組合、2022 年供應鏈韌性投資以及薪資通膨。

Some of these effects are transitory, and we expect our midterm earnings model gross margin range of 59% to 60% to remain intact. OpEx is expected to run at 31% to 34% of third quarter sales. The non-GAAP operating profit rate at the midpoint of our third quarter guidance is 26%.

其中部分影響屬於短期性，我們預期中期獲利模型的毛利率區間 59% 至 60% 仍可維持不變。OpEx 預期將占第三季銷售額的 31% 至 34%。以第三季指引中點計算，非 GAAP 營業利益率為 26%。

As Mark noted, we expect second half revenue to be below the first half, approximately 48% of full year sales. Given the reduced revenue outlook for the second half of the year, our operating expenses are now planned to grow just 4% to 6% annually versus 11% to 13% planned in our prior guidance.

如 Mark 所提，我們預期下半年營收將低於上半年，約占全年銷售額的 48%。鑑於下半年營收展望下修，我們目前規劃營業費用年增僅 4% 至 6%，相較於先前指引規劃的 11% 至 13%。

The OpEx reduction from prior guide is driven by 2 factors. First, our variable compensation model is approximately half of the decline tied to reduced revenue. Second, we have delayed some expenditures in both Test and IA, which we believe will not impact our long-run competitiveness. Spending savings are roughly evenly split between engineering and go-to-market.

相較先前指引的 OpEx 下調主要由兩項因素驅動。第一，我們的變動薪酬模型約占與營收下滑連動之降幅的一半。第二，我們延後了 Test 與 IA 的部分支出，我們相信這不會影響長期競爭力。節省的支出約平均分配在工程與市場推進（go-to-market）兩方面。

Summing it all up, we're expecting revenue and profit in Q3 and the second half of the year to be lower than we projected 3 months ago, but our operating model is resilient to varying revenue levels. With the reduced revenue level, our model reduces variable compensation expense, and we're taking other steps as appropriate.

總結而言，我們預期 Q3 與下半年營收與獲利將低於 3 個月前的預測，但我們的營運模型對不同營收水準具備韌性。在營收水準降低的情況下，我們的模型會降低變動薪酬費用，並且我們也會視情況採取其他適當措施。

A downturn is always challenging, but we're confident we have the operating model, strategy and experience to lead us through whatever lies ahead, while keeping our focus on the needs of our customers and the long-term opportunities in the Test and industrial automation markets.

景氣下行總是充滿挑戰，但我們有信心憑藉營運模型、策略與經驗，帶領我們度過未來任何情況，同時持續聚焦客戶需求，以及 Test 與工業自動化市場的長期機會。

With that, I'll turn things over to Andy.

接下來我把時間交給 Andy。

Thanks, Sanjay. Latif would now like to take some questions. And as a reminder, please limit yourself to one question and a follow-up.

謝謝你，Sanjay。Latif 現在想要回答一些問題。提醒各位，請將問題限制為一個問題加上一個追問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Vivek Arya of Bank of America.

（接線員指示）我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行（Bank of America）的 Vivek Arya。

I just wanted to clarify that you're guiding Q4 roughly around $670 million, $675 million, which seems to be kind of freak-over levels. And I think if I take your IA guidance into account, suggest that non-IA Q4 sales will be $430 million, which would be, I think, almost 20% below pre-COVID levels. Did I get that right? And I realize that there are headwinds, but why is such a sharp decline in your Q4 outlook?

我想確認一下，你們對 Q4 的指引大約是 6.70 億、6.75 億美元左右，看起來有點像是回到某種「異常偏低」的水準。而且我認為如果把你們的 IA 指引納入考量，代表非 IA 的 Q4 銷售額會是 4.30 億美元，這將比 COVID 前水準低將近 20%。我理解得對嗎？我知道有逆風，但為什麼你們對 Q4 的展望會出現這麼急劇的下滑？

Yes. Roughly speaking, those are about right. And I think, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, maybe we probably reduced our second half revenue targets somewhere between $300 million to $350 million. About 1/3 of that is known customer weakening where the demand has been communicated to us to have soften. 2/3 of it is just a projection of more to come of that fame based on conversations that are just beginning with customers. So there's not a clear -- and all of this is mostly related to Test.

是的。大致上來說，你的理解差不多正確。正如我在事先準備的發言中提到的，我們可能把下半年營收目標下調了約 3.00 億到 3.50 億美元。其中約三分之一是已知的客戶需求轉弱，也就是客戶已向我們傳達需求已經放緩；另外三分之二則是根據才剛開始與客戶的對話，推估後續還會有更多類似情況。因此，並沒有一個明確可辨識的——而且這些大多與 Test 相關。

So there's not sort of a clear identified 2/3 of that decline portion, but it's just the experience we've seen in prior cycles and the Test industry suggest that there's more to come.

所以，那三分之二的下滑部分並沒有明確可辨識的來源，但依據我們在過去循環中的經驗，以及 Test 產業的特性，顯示後面可能還會有更多下行。

If you go back to 2013, for example, when the market went through a significant 30% year-over-year correction, this was sort of the beginning of that kind of trend. Now here, we're talking about a market correcting about 9% off of the peak of last year. So a much more modest correction -- but that's -- this is kind of how the market turns and we're using history to sort of guide us in how we're projecting these yet-to-be-identified digestion phases.

例如回到 2013 年，當市場經歷顯著的年對年 30% 修正時，這大概就是那種趨勢的起點。現在我們談的是市場相較去年高點回檔約 9%，屬於更溫和的修正——但市場轉折大致就是這樣發生的，我們也用歷史來引導我們如何預測這些尚未被明確辨識的去化（digestion）階段。

Got it. And then, Mark, I'm curious, what is your exposure to Android smartphones this year versus last year? And how much of a headwind -- is that continuous? And do you think that will alleviate next year? Or can that still be an offset to any 3-nanometer Testing benefits on the iOS side? So just the interplay between Android and iOS kind of this year and what you're thinking about from a next year perspective?

了解。接著 Mark，我想問你們今年相較去年對 Android 智慧型手機的曝險有多大？這會造成多大的逆風——這是持續性的嗎？你認為明年會緩解嗎？或者它仍可能抵銷 iOS 端 3 奈米測試帶來的任何好處？也就是今年 Android 與 iOS 的互動，以及你對明年的看法。

Yes. I think our exposure to Android smartphones is a little bit higher this year than it's been in past years. We've picked up a little bit of market share in that segment. Obviously, that segment is down significantly this year in unit volume. So that's having the -- that's principally the reason for the declines we're forecasting here in the second half.

是的。我認為我們今年對 Android 智慧型手機的曝險比過去幾年略高一些，我們在該細分市場取得了一點市占。顯然，該細分市場今年的出貨量大幅下滑，所以——這基本上就是我們在此預測下半年下滑的主要原因。

Now when we look at 2023, it's hard to tell what's going to happen with the Android phones. Part of what's happened in 2022 in terms of the declines related to China -- and part of this is predicting how China will rebound in 2023 as consumer demand hopefully recovers. But we don't have a strong forecast for the Android subsegment of smartphones yet for 2023. So I can't really give you a lot of color on that.

至於 2023 年，我們很難判斷 Android 手機會如何發展。2022 年發生的一部分下滑與中國相關——而其中一部分也取決於我們如何預測 2023 年中國的反彈，期望消費需求能夠回升。但我們目前對 2023 年智慧型手機中 Android 子市場還沒有很強的預測，因此我無法提供太多細節。

Our next question comes from the line of Toshiya Hari of Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛（Goldman Sachs）的 Toshiya Hari。

I had 2 as well, one on Semi Test and the other on IA. On the Semi Test side, Mark, I was hoping you could speak to your expectations in terms of market share for the year? Given the incremental weakness you're seeing at the market level and given that you had sort of derisked your opportunity for this year with your largest customer. I feel like your market share position as of today is perhaps a little bit better than what you were thinking 3 months ago. I just wanted to clarify that on the Semi Test side?

我也有兩個問題，一個關於半導體測試（Semi Test），另一個關於 IA。在 Semi Test 方面，Mark，我希望你能談談你們對今年市占的預期？鑑於你們在市場層面看到的額外疲弱，以及你們今年已就最大客戶把機會做了某種程度的去風險（derisk），我覺得你們截至目前的市占位置可能比你們 3 個月前想的還要好一些。我想確認一下 Semi Test 這一塊是否如此？

Yes. I think -- so there's 2 pieces of Semi Test Memory and SOC Memory, it's going to be 40-ish percent market share, consistent with last year. On SOC, it really depends on what happens on the compute side in terms of how much decline happens in the market on compute, which is more of our competitors, strong soup. So we've baked in a significant decline in mobility. We believe a decline in compute is imminent -- but that's something that I think over the next few weeks, as we hear from our competitor, we'll know more about.

是的。我認為——Semi Test 有兩個部分：記憶體（Memory）與 SOC。在記憶體方面，我們的市占大約是 40% 左右，與去年一致。至於 SOC，則取決於運算（compute）端市場會發生什麼事，也就是市場在運算領域會下滑多少；那一塊更偏向我們競爭對手的強項。因此我們已把行動（mobility）的大幅下滑納入假設。我們認為運算端的下滑迫在眉睫——但我想在接下來幾週，隨著我們聽到競爭對手的說法，我們會更清楚。

All that being said, I think our statistical share is sort of in the upper -- mid- to upper 30% range in SOC Test this year. But that's based on, again, strong compute market, weak mobility market versus customer switching suppliers and that moves around quite a bit year-to-year.

綜合以上所述，我認為我們在今年 SOC Test 的統計市占率大概落在 30% 中後段到 30% 高段的區間。但這仍是基於（再次強調）運算市場強勁、行動裝置市場疲弱，相較於客戶更換供應商的情況；而這些因素每年之間會有相當大的波動。

Got it. That's helpful. And then as my follow-up on the IA side, I guess a 2-part question. The first part is I just wanted to clarify that fundamentals in the business remain pretty strong. And I asked the question because the reasons you noted for, I guess, the reduced outlook for the second half seemed technical transitory. You talked about FX. You talked about COVID lockdowns in China and staff shortages in the U.S. So fundamentally, is the business still healthy and intact? I guess that's number one.

了解。這很有幫助。接著我在 IA 方面的追問，我想是個兩段式問題。第一段是我想確認，這項業務的基本面仍然相當強勁。我之所以問，是因為你提到的、我想是下半年展望下修的原因，看起來比較偏技術性、短期性的因素。你談到匯率。你談到中國的 COVID 封控，以及美國的人力短缺。所以從基本面來看，業務是否仍然健康且完整？我想這是第一點。

And then number two, on the OEM channel dynamic, just curious, how big is that channel today as a percentage of IA? And where do you see that going in a couple of years? And how does that impact profitability as OEM grows vis-a-vis your Dusty business?

第二點，關於 OEM 通路的動態，我想了解：目前這個通路占 IA 的比重有多大？你們預期兩年後會走到哪裡？以及隨著 OEM 相對於你們的 Dusty 業務成長，這對獲利能力會有什麼影響？

This is Greg. Let me try and take that. So we believe that the fundamentals are still very strong in the IA market. The effects of China lockdowns and staff shortages should both ease to some extent through the rest of the year. We believe that the FX headwind is going to be consistent through the rest of this year. We don't see a significant appreciation of the euro. So that translation into dollars is going to continue to take a couple of points off the top in terms of our growth for revenue that's denominated in euros.

我是 Greg。我來試著回答。我們認為 IA 市場的基本面仍然非常強勁。中國封控與人力短缺的影響，在今年剩餘時間應該都會在某種程度上緩解。我們認為匯率逆風在今年剩餘時間會維持一致。我們不預期歐元會明顯升值。因此，將以歐元計價的營收換算成美元時，會持續在我們的營收成長上「削掉」幾個百分點。

To your second question, our OEM channel right now, it represents about 16% of overall UR revenue lower for the entirety of the Industrial Automation Group. And it's growing for the first half, it grew at 39% and we expect to be able to maintain that kind of a growth rate.

至於你的第二個問題，我們目前的 OEM 通路約占 UR 整體營收的 16%，而對整個工業自動化事業群而言占比更低。它在上半年成長了 39%，我們預期能維持這樣的成長率。

And impact on profitability?

那對獲利能力的影響呢？

So our pricing in the OEM channel is a little bit favorable to pricing through our normal distribution channel. So we don't expect to see any negative impact to profitability as that channel grows.

我們在 OEM 通路的定價，相較於透過一般經銷通路的定價略為有利。因此，隨著該通路成長，我們不預期會對獲利能力造成任何負面影響。

Our next question comes from the line of Samik Chatterjee of JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自 JPMorgan 的 Samik Chatterjee。

I have a couple as well. I think within Semi Test, you mentioned you're continuing to see robust demand in autos and industrial within Semi Test. So I was just wondering, given the trends you're seeing in industrial automation -- are you baking in any incremental weakness as you go through the remainder of the year in autos and industrial as well within Semi Test? And then I have a follow-up.

我也有幾個問題。在 Semi Test 方面，你提到在汽車與工業領域仍持續看到強勁需求。所以我想問，考量你們在工業自動化看到的趨勢——在今年剩餘時間，你們是否也在 Semi Test 的汽車與工業領域納入任何額外的疲弱假設？我還有一個追問。

No, not really. Most of the weakness we're baking in, again, in the fourth quarter that we've yet to really get confirmation on is in more in mobility and compute and infrastructure. But we think industrial and auto will remain strong through the end of the year.

沒有，並不太是。我們納入的疲弱主要是（再次強調）在第四季、目前我們還沒有真正獲得確認的部分，更多是在行動裝置以及運算與基礎設施。但我們認為工業與汽車會一路強勁到年底。

And just a follow up on the cost structure here. I see -- I mean, you've obviously paired back some of your expenses that were planned for this year. But in relation to sort of SG&A, you're running pretty much at the same rate that you were last year when revenues were much higher as you start to think about sort of the strategic CapEx if you buy some of your customers and maybe some delays to the secular long-term drivers that you have. What's the sort of flexibility in terms of taking the cost structure lower or sort of rightsizing it for maybe some of the sort of pushouts in terms of revenue that you're seeing greater -- could you just sort of postponing spend as you're doing sort of announcing today?

接著追問成本結構。我看到——你們顯然已經縮減了今年原本規劃的一些費用。但就 SG&A 而言，當你開始思考策略性資本支出（CapEx），例如你可能收購一些客戶，以及你們的長期結構性驅動因素可能出現一些延後時，你們目前的支出水準幾乎和去年一樣，而去年營收高得多。那麼，在把成本結構再往下調、或為了你們看到的營收遞延而進行「適度調整」方面，你們有多大的彈性？你能否談談，是否像你們今天宣布的那樣，主要是透過延後支出來因應？

It's Sanjay. So just a couple of comments on our business model as it relates to cost structure. So as you know, the majority of our Test portfolio has contract manufacturing. So it really provides great scalability up and down with our outsourced partners kind of fixed assets. So that helps on the margin line.

我是 Sanjay。先就與成本結構相關的商業模式補充幾點。如你所知，我們 Test 產品組合的大多數採用委外製造（contract manufacturing）。因此，透過外包夥伴的固定資產，我們在產能上調或下調時都具備很好的可擴展性，這對毛利率表現有幫助。

But then from an operating expense perspective, we have a key portion of our wages in a flexible or variable compensation plan that is that as revenue and profit goes up, that is passed along part of it to the employees. But as it goes down, which is one of -- it's about half of the driver of the growth reduction from a midpoint of 12% expected this year to a midpoint of 5%, as I noted in my prepared remarks, about half of that growth reduction is driven by the variable compensation.

而在營業費用方面，我們薪酬中有一個關鍵部分採用彈性或變動式的獎酬方案：當營收與獲利上升時，其中一部分會回饋給員工；當營收與獲利下降時也會相應下降。正如我在事先準備的講稿中提到的，從今年原先預期成長中位數 12% 下修到中位數 5%，其中約一半的下修幅度是由變動薪酬所驅動。

So we believe as time moves on and let's say, the market goes lower, we'll have the ability to reduce our operating expenses on a variable basis while keeping our workforce intact and investing for the long term. And obviously, as the market rebounds or increases, our revenue goes up, then that will increase our operating expenses on a variable basis.

因此我們相信，隨著時間推進，假設市場走弱，我們有能力在不裁減人力、同時持續進行長期投資的前提下，以變動方式降低營業費用。當市場反彈或成長時，我們的營收上升，營業費用也會以變動方式相應增加。

Our next question comes from the line of C.J. Muse of Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 C.J. Muse。

I guess first question on gross margins. If I look at what you've kind of discussed in terms of mix, that's actually a positive on the SOC side yet you're guiding gross margins, I think the worst is kind of mid-2020 at a revenue run rate, I think that exceeded back then. So -- so curious what is driving the gross margin hit here? Is it a much worse mix in SOC than what perhaps I'm contemplating? Or is it kind of the FX other issues around IA?

我想先問毛利率。如果我看你們談到的產品組合（mix），在 SOC 端其實是正面因素，但你們給的毛利率指引，我認為最差大概是 2020 年年中，而當時的營收運行水準（run rate）我記得還更高。所以我想了解，這次毛利率受挫的驅動因素是什麼？是 SOC 的組合比我想像的糟很多嗎？還是主要是匯率或 IA 相關的其他問題？

Sure, C.J. So yes, so I think when you think of the product mix, there is some mix degradation within Semi Test, but also as there's less Wireless Test, which is higher than the corporate average and less than expected kind of IA, which is higher than the corporate average. So you are seeing mix. But a couple of other drivers that I noted in my prepared remarks.

好的，C.J. 是的，當你看產品組合時，Semi Test 內部確實有一些組合惡化；此外，Wireless Test（其毛利率高於公司平均）占比下降，以及 IA（同樣高於公司平均）低於預期，因此你會看到組合面的影響。不過還有幾個我在事先準備的講稿中提到的其他驅動因素。

And that is we've spent a lot of effort and money on making our supply chain resilient through component qualification, through multi-country manufacturing, et cetera. A lot of those costs are going to be incurred in 2022 and the second half of 2022. So we have those that significantly curtail, there will be some in 2023, but will curtail the majority of them in 2022. So think of those as transitory. And then we're also seeing a little bit of wage inflation for both ourselves and our partners.

也就是說，我們投入了大量心力與資金，透過零組件認證、跨國製造等方式，讓供應鏈更具韌性。這些成本有很大一部分會在 2022 年、尤其是 2022 年下半年發生。我們會在 2022 年大幅收斂這些支出；2023 年仍會有一些，但大多數會在 2022 年結束。因此可把它們視為短期性因素。另外，我們也看到我們自身以及合作夥伴都有一些薪資通膨。

Very helpful. I guess as my follow-up, in terms of the slowdown that you're seeing in Test, are you seeing pushouts or actual cancellations? And then as you think about 2023, obviously, a lot of changes afoot in terms of heterogeneous compute, larger die sizes, smaller die sizes with chiplets advanced packaging. I'm curious how you're thinking about that net effect into 2023 and how you -- whether we could see growth or further declines and what your market share might look like?

非常有幫助。我的追問是，就你們在 Test 看到的放緩而言，你們看到的是交期遞延（pushouts）還是實際取消（cancellations）？另外，展望 2023 年，異質運算、晶粒尺寸變大或變小、chiplets 與先進封裝等方面顯然有很多變化正在發生。我想了解你們如何看待這些因素在 2023 年的淨影響——我們是否可能看到成長或進一步下滑？以及你們的市占率可能會是什麼樣子？

Yes. So on the heterogeneous computing and the effects in 2023, I think that's all positive for us. 3 nanometer is coming as planned. We don't see any changes or delays in anything associated with that. The trends toward chiplets, multichip packages and the associated Test intensity increase around known good die, more pins to Test in a chiplet design than there would be in a monolithic design. All are tailwinds for Test.

是的。關於異質運算及其在 2023 年的影響，我認為對我們都是正面的。3 奈米會按計畫推進。我們沒有看到任何相關事項出現變更或延遲。市場朝向 chiplets、多晶片封裝的趨勢，以及圍繞「已知良品晶粒」（known good die）的測試強度提升——在 chiplet 設計中需要測試的針腳（pins）比單晶片（monolithic）設計更多——這些都是 Test 的順風。

Now those have been occurring in the market and we'll continue to phase in over the next several years as that method of, let's say, package assembly gains more and more prevalence. So that is another one of the tailwinds that gives us confidence in the midterm earning model that we produced earlier in the year.

而這些趨勢已經在市場中發生，並將在未來幾年持續逐步導入，因為這種封裝組裝方式會愈來愈普及。因此，這也是讓我們對今年稍早提出的中期獲利模型（midterm earning model）保持信心的另一項順風因素。

So no change to our beliefs around 2023 at this point. And in terms of pushouts versus cancellations versus anything else, we're not seeing any cancellations. But what we have seen is that there's been a few pushouts, but more significantly, we do hold some capacity in place for some of our key customers on a basically -- a sort of 12- to 16-week delivery window basis that were unbooked and it's the demand for those unordered testers principally that disappeared.

因此，就目前而言，我們對 2023 年的看法沒有改變。至於延後出貨（pushouts）相較於取消（cancellations）或其他情況，我們沒有看到任何取消。但我們確實看到有少數延後；更重要的是，我們為部分關鍵客戶預留了一些產能，基本上是以約 12 到 16 週交期窗口為基礎，但這些產能並未被下單預訂，而主要消失的是對那些未下單測試機（testers）的需求。

Our next question comes from the line of [Robert Graham] of Loop Capital.

我們的下一個問題來自 Loop Capital 的 [Robert Graham]。

Welcome aboard, Greg. I have 2 maybe more 40,000-foot theoreticals, if you don't mind. The first is when we started the year, largest customer decides to curtail tester purchases because I think as we've determined to be correct, that their complexity in this year's launch, it was just not enough to warrant a new tester that the idea was that next year, their '23 launch would have much more complexity aided by 3-nanometer. Has -- with the smartphone market weaker today, has anything changed that framework in your mind or more -- perhaps even more importantly, if I may, what your largest customer is saying to you, Mark?

歡迎加入，Greg。我有兩個、也許更多偏 40,000 英尺高度的理論性問題，如果你不介意。第一個是：年初時，最大客戶決定縮減測試機採購，因為我想我們已經判定那是正確的——他們今年新品發表的複雜度不足以支撐購買新測試機；原先的想法是明年他們的 2023 年發表會在 3 奈米助力下變得更複雜。隨著目前智慧型手機市場走弱，這個框架在你心中有任何改變嗎？或者——也許更重要的是，如果我可以問——你們的最大客戶現在對你說了什麼，Mark？

Yes, no changes on that front. Our largest customer has fared pretty well this year despite overall unit declines in smartphones. And so it's a bright spot, if anything else that, that segment of the smartphone market is robust. And we expect -- and every -- there's nothing we've heard that would change our view of 2023.

是的，這方面沒有任何改變。儘管智慧型手機整體出貨量下滑，我們的最大客戶今年表現相當不錯。因此如果要說亮點的話，那個智慧型手機市場的細分領域反而相對強勁。我們預期——而且我們沒有聽到任何會改變我們對 2023 年看法的訊息。

And then as far as this whole 6- to 12-month slowdown that you've seen in the past, which is obviously documented in the numbers, Mark, in your eyes, does that actually start in 3Q because the first half was kind of more a Teradyne specific thing with that large customer? Does that essentially 6- to 12-month timetable start now?

再來，關於你過去看到的這種 6 到 12 個月的放緩——顯然數字也證明了這點——Mark，以你的角度看，這是否其實是從第三季才開始，因為上半年比較像是 Teradyne 自身的因素、與那個大客戶有關？也就是說，這個 6 到 12 個月的時間表現在才開始嗎？

Yes. I would suggest it starts in third quarter because you're right, the first half sort of market declines were pretty isolated to one customer having that big of an impact on the overall view of the market. What we're into now is something more classical, I think. It's certainly -- and part of this, again, I'll caution is a projection on our part. We've seen it now in the smartphone side but we believe and sense that it's coming in a broader set of markets like compute and infrastructure.

是的。我會說它從第三季開始，因為你說得對，上半年那種市場下滑其實相當集中在單一客戶，因為那個客戶對整體市場觀感造成了很大的影響。我們現在面對的，我認為更像是典型的循環。當然——而且再次提醒，其中一部分仍是我們的推估。我們已經在智慧型手機端看到了，但我們相信並感覺它也將出現在更廣泛的市場，例如運算與基礎設施。

And there's inventory overhangs as well out there that typically, in phases like this go through a digestion phase and working down inventory levels take that sort of 6- to 12-month period. And we think that as we head into sort of lower economic growth periods and a little bit more inventory in the channel than historically has been there -- that people are going to tighten down a bit and it's going to slow demand for sort of repeat orders for devices in those categories. So yes, starts in Q3, 6- to 12-months, I think, is a safe bet, and we'll see how it plays out.

此外，市場上也存在庫存過剩（inventory overhang），通常在這種階段會進入消化期，而去化庫存水位往往需要大約 6 到 12 個月。我們認為，當我們進入較低的經濟成長期，且通路端庫存略高於歷史水準時——大家會更趨於保守，這將放緩這些類別中裝置的重複下單需求。因此，是的，從第三季開始；6 到 12 個月我認為是相對保守且安全的判斷，後續就看實際發展。

Mark, if I could just sneak this one in. By extension to that -- by extension to that, does the 2024 framework now is at the lower end of that maybe more likely? Or is the lower end in jeopardy? I'm just wondering because you didn't put that framework into the deck.

Mark，如果我可以再偷偷問一題。延伸剛才的問題——延伸剛才的問題，現在 2024 年的框架是否更可能落在區間的低端？還是說低端也有風險？我只是想了解，因為你沒有把那個框架放在簡報裡。

No, I think -- look, I think if you look at the history of the market, that 2024 framework, our earnings model and projection is intact and in play, and I wouldn't characterize it as low end either. When you look at how much the markets move up and down year-to-year historically, we could easily see a snapback of 20%, 30% growth in a subsequent year.

不，我認為——你看，我覺得如果你回顧市場歷史，2024 年的框架、我們的獲利模型與預測仍然完整且持續有效，我也不會把它形容為低端。從歷史上看市場每年上下波動的幅度，我們完全可能在下一年看到 20%、30% 的反彈成長。

So I wouldn't call our 2024 in any way based on what we're seeing right now.

所以我不會說我們的 2024 年是以任何方式建立在我們現在所看到的情況之上。

Our next question comes from the line of Brian Chin of Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Brian Chin。

Thanks for letting us ask a few questions. Maybe just backtrack to the $600 million reduction in the SOC TAM. Can you maybe just delineate again whether it's mobility versus compute within that reduction?

謝謝讓我們問幾個問題。也許先回到 SOC TAM 減少 6 億美元這件事。你能否再說明一下，這個減少在行動（mobility）與運算（compute）之間各占多少？

And also just sort of zoom in on the compute TAM, are you seeing or anticipating any weakness outside of processors for client PCs, meaning sort of hyperscale or server high-performance compute chips as well?

另外再聚焦在運算 TAM：除了用於用戶端 PC 的處理器之外，你們是否看到或預期其他領域也會走弱，例如超大規模（hyperscale）或伺服器高效能運算晶片？

I'll take the TAM side of it. So where we're seeing in our estimates really tied to our $4.4 million -- sorry, $4.4 billion midpoint, we're seeing about $300 million, our estimate is a $300 million decline in compute, $400 million decline in mobility and an increase in auto of about $100 million. So that's really, Brian, where we're seeing it.

我來回答 TAM 的部分。我們在估算上，與我們 44 億美元——抱歉，是 44 億美元中點——相關的變化是：我們估計運算下滑約 3 億美元、行動下滑約 4 億美元，而車用（auto）則增加約 1 億美元。所以，Brian，我們看到的大致就是這樣。

And then on the question of where in the compute market are we anticipating or getting some early signals of weakness. Certainly, right now, the immediate corrections are occurring related to consumer laptops, a little bit of enterprise PC area. We're not seeing at the moment the correction in cloud infrastructure or service.

至於運算市場中哪些地方我們預期或已收到一些早期走弱訊號：目前最直接的修正確實發生在消費型筆電，企業 PC 領域也有一點。我們目前還沒有看到雲端基礎設施或服務端出現修正。

However, there are -- I would say, discussions going on in those areas that suggest that that's probably coming. And so part of what we've assumed in our both market projections and Q4 revenue projections are some declines starting in Q4 in those segments, modest relative to mobility, however.

不過，我會說，那些領域正在進行一些討論，顯示那可能也會到來。因此，我們在市場預測以及第四季營收預測中，已假設這些細分市場從第四季開始會有一些下滑；但相較於行動端，幅度會較溫和。

Okay. That's interesting. Maybe just switching gears then back to automation. We've also heard that supply issues, not even your MiR, but for other complementary products like 3D cameras or conveyance had also been delaying automation projects. I'm curious if that's something you're also seeing? And the kind of second part of that is, it's not totally fair to ask, but how are you thinking about IA growth rates for next year given the existing and anticipated headwinds, including demand, not only supply?

好的，這很有意思。那我換個話題回到自動化。我們也聽說供應問題——不只是你們的 MiR，其他互補產品例如 3D 相機或輸送設備（conveyance）——也在延後自動化專案。我很好奇你們是否也看到這種情況？第二部分是，這樣問不太公平，但在既有與預期的逆風（包括需求而不僅是供給）之下，你們如何看待明年的 IA 成長率？

So this is Greg. The -- in terms of supply issues, we are definitely hearing from our partners that they are having trouble procuring some elements of the solutions that they're building. And I think that's part of the headwind that we're seeing in North America that there's staff constraints, and there's also a large number of partially complete projects that they need to get off of their books.

我是 Greg。——就供應問題而言，我們確實從合作夥伴那裡聽到，他們在採購其所建置解決方案中的某些元件時遇到困難。我認為這也是我們在北美看到的逆風之一：有人力配置限制，同時他們帳上也有大量部分完成的專案需要結案。

So we expect as those supply constraints start to ease that, that will come off as a constraint. And we think that, that will probably happen towards the latter part of this year.

因此，我們預期隨著這些供應限制開始緩解，這個限制因素也會逐步解除。我們認為這大概會在今年較後段發生。

In terms of growth projections for '23, it's very early, but we don't see any reason to really deviate from the 30% to 45% range that we've been talking about in terms of IA growth long term because the end market fundamentals are very, very strong. We have very low market penetration and labor scarcity is still a big factor in all of the markets where we play.

至於 2023 年的成長預測，現在還很早，但我們沒有看到任何理由需要偏離我們長期談到的 IA 成長 30% 到 45% 區間，因為終端市場基本面非常、非常強。我們的市場滲透率仍然很低，而勞動力短缺在我們所參與的所有市場中仍是很大的因素。

Our next question comes from the line of Sidney Ho of Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）的 Sidney Ho。

Great. I want to double-click on the mobility market. I think most of us understand the order pattern of the largest customer. But excluding that customer is your revenue growth more closely tied to smartphone sales, meaning they are more reflective of current demand? The reason I ask is that if we start hearing smartphone inventory getting closer to normal levels, say, by the end of this year, does that mean you will start seeing more tested revenue growth in Q1? Or do we have to wait a little longer because your customers may not meet extra tested capacity until later?

很好。我想更深入追問行動市場。我想我們大多理解最大客戶的下單模式。但若排除該客戶，你們的營收成長是否更緊密地與智慧型手機銷售相關，也就是更能反映當前需求？我之所以這麼問，是因為如果我們開始聽到智慧型手機庫存到今年底接近正常水位，是否意味著你們會在第一季開始看到更多測試相關營收成長？還是我們得再等久一點，因為你們的客戶可能要到之後才會需要額外的測試產能？

Yes. So good question. I would roughly say that in the smartphone world, tester capacity precedes unit production by about 3 months. So what we're seeing in the decline in our third quarter for tester capacity demand reflects a unit production reduction of smartphones in the fourth quarter primarily.

是的。這是個好問題。我大致會說，在智慧型手機的世界裡，測試機產能需求通常會比整機生產提前大約 3 個月。因此，我們在第三季看到的測試機產能需求下滑，主要反映的是第四季智慧型手機整機產量的減少。

So if we're thinking about next year, then we would -- we should start to see tester demand pick back up 3 months prior to major phone launches or a return to growth in the China market, for example, that's sort of the model.

所以如果我們在思考明年，那麼我們——我們應該會在重大手機發表前約 3 個月，或例如中國市場恢復成長之前，開始看到測試機需求回升，這大概就是那個模型。

Okay. That's helpful. My follow-up question is on the Memory Test. You called out the strength in Memory Test in second quarter, and you still expect the TAM to be about $1 billion this year. But many Memory suppliers are likely going to cut CapEx quite a bit and slow down production. When do you think you will feel these adjustments in your revenue? Or is increased complexity and market share gains enough to offset these headwinds?

好的。這很有幫助。我追問的問題是關於記憶體測試（Memory Test）。你提到第二季記憶體測試很強勁，而且你仍預期今年的 TAM 約為 10 億美元。但許多記憶體供應商很可能會大幅削減資本支出並放慢生產。你認為你們何時會在營收上感受到這些調整？或者，增加的複雜度與市占率提升是否足以抵消這些逆風？

Yes. I think in Memory, it's a little different -- and we don't expect to see much of a correction because there's some tester obsolescence occurring in the new DDR5 and LPDDR5 interfaces that are growing in share in the DRAM world, require brand-new testers. And all the fab capacity that's been put in place in 2022 to produce that class of device that should start growing in the server world and in the phone world in 2023, will need to be facilitated with testers in the second half of this year going into next year.

是的。我認為在記憶體方面有點不同——我們不預期會看到太多修正，因為在新的 DDR5 與 LPDDR5 介面上正發生一些測試機汰舊（obsolescence），而這些介面在 DRAM 世界的占比正在提升，並且需要全新的測試機。2022 年已建置的所有晶圓廠產能，用來生產這一類裝置，預計在 2023 年於伺服器與手機領域開始成長，而這將需要在今年下半年到明年期間以測試機來支援。

So I think there's a bit of a lag between the CapEx investment on the front end and the tester investment on the back end. And we think at least through the early part of 2023, despite what we're hearing in Memory from the suppliers in terms of bit growth and everything else that these obsolescence -- technological obsolescence events will have to be solved with additional tester capacity because of the old tester just can't be reused.

所以我認為前端的資本支出投資與後端的測試機投資之間存在一些時間落差。而我們認為至少到 2023 年初，儘管我們從記憶體供應商那裡聽到關於位元成長（bit growth）等各方面的訊息，這些汰舊——技術性汰舊事件仍必須透過增加測試機產能來解決，因為舊的測試機就是無法再重複使用。

Our next question comes from the line of Joseph Moore of Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的 Joseph Moore。

In the past, you guys have sort of talked about the relationship between the wafer fab equipment market, particularly the logic portion and your SOC Test business, obviously, you're kind of diverging now. And I'm not asking you to make a call on WFE, which I think most of us do expect will probably contract. But can you just talk a little bit about that relationship and this contraction that you're seeing seems a little bit at odds with how much logic capacity is coming online and which -- how much stuff would presumably need to be tested? Just give us some context on that relationship.

過去你們曾談到晶圓廠設備（WFE）市場——特別是邏輯（logic）部分——與你們 SOC 測試業務之間的關係，顯然你們現在有點背離。我不是要你們去判斷 WFE，我想我們大多數人都預期它可能會收縮。但你們能否談談這個關係？你們看到的這種收縮似乎與大量邏輯產能上線有點不一致，而那些產能——照理說會有很多東西需要測試。請就這個關係提供一些背景。

You're right, it is at odds. It doesn't correlate well. It suggests that there would be some underutilized, either underutilized fab capacity for a period of time or there will be wafer die banking going on. In other words, the fabs will keep running, but the devices themselves may sit untested, undiced, unpackaged for some period of time.

你說得對，確實不一致。它的相關性不高。這暗示在一段時間內，可能會出現晶圓廠產能利用不足（underutilized），或者會發生晶圓裸晶（die）庫存堆積（wafer die banking）。換句話說，晶圓廠會持續運轉，但裝置本身可能會在一段時間內處於未測試、未切割（undiced）、未封裝（unpackaged）的狀態。

So I think that is likely to be the case for a little bit of a period of time coming in the next 6 to 9 months. But usually or historically, that washes itself out at the back end of the 6- to 12-month correction. But that's kind of what I would expect.

所以我認為在接下來 6 到 9 個月內，這種情況很可能會持續一小段時間。但通常或從歷史來看，在 6 到 12 個月的修正期後端，這些狀況會自行消化掉。不過這大概就是我所預期的。

Okay. And then for my follow-up, on the last question you kind of referenced technology transitions in Memory. If you talked about DDR5, I didn't hear it, but can you talk a little bit about is DDR5 timing kind of getting pushed back? Is that a factor in DRAM being a little lower this year and what does that tell you about kind of your Memory business prospects for next year?

好的。那我追問一下，上一題你提到記憶體的技術轉換。如果你談到 DDR5，我可能漏聽了，但你能否談談 DDR5 的時程是否正在被往後推？這是否是今年 DRAM 稍微偏低的因素之一？這對你們明年記憶體業務前景有何啟示？

Yes, it absolutely does. This year, we expected -- if you go back to the fourth quarter of last year, the DDR5 would be a bigger part of the market and our business in 2022. With the delay of Sapphire Rapids and such into 2023, a lot of that tooling pushed out. However, the market kind of held up because what filled in behind that was pretty robust investment for some new suppliers in China. All year long, they've been very aggressively ramping capacity. And so it turns out, despite the delay in DDR5, 2022 is a pretty good year for Memory.

是的，絕對是。今年我們原本預期——如果你回到去年第四季——DDR5 會在 2022 年成為市場與我們業務中更大的一部分。隨著 Sapphire Rapids 等產品延後到 2023 年，許多相關的設備導入（tooling）也被推遲。不過市場整體仍撐住了，因為後面補上的是中國一些新供應商相當強勁的投資。整年他們都非常積極地擴產。因此結果是，儘管 DDR5 延後，2022 年對記憶體而言仍是相當不錯的一年。

So when we look into 2023, there could be a little bit more of an incremental delay. I think everybody is hearing about maybe Sapphire Rapids is going to get split out another few months or so. But it's coming. We're getting close to escape velocity, I think. So -- and we're seeing the orders, we're seeing the orders for capacity for that coming in now. So that's what gives us some pretty -- a little bit more confidence on the Memory side than we're seeing on the SOC side.

所以當我們看向 2023 年，可能還會有一些額外的延後。我想大家都聽到也許 Sapphire Rapids 會再拆分、再延後幾個月左右。但它會來的。我認為我們已經接近「逃逸速度」（escape velocity）了。所以——而且我們正在看到訂單，我們正在看到相關產能的訂單現在就進來。這也是為什麼在記憶體端，我們比在 SOC 端看到的情況更有一些信心。

Our next question comes from the line of Krish Sankar of Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Krish Sankar。

Question, I had 2 of them. First on Mark or Greg, to the extent you can answer it, a question on next year. Do you worry that if and when mobile demand starts getting better next year and the auto industrial segment could roll over and wouldn't that be more detrimental to your margins? How do you think about that transition? If you can answer it, and then I have a follow-up.

我有兩個問題。第一個是問 Mark 或 Greg，在你們能回答的範圍內，關於明年。你們是否擔心如果、以及當行動裝置需求明年開始好轉時，汽車與工業（auto industrial）區塊可能會反轉下滑，而那會對你們的毛利率更不利？你們如何看待這個轉換？如果可以回答的話，然後我還有一個追問。

Yes, I don't think the margin between auto and mobile is that significant for us, frankly. I wouldn't say that there's a mix shift going on there that it's going to be a headwind or a tailwind. They're pretty blended close to each other.

是的，坦白說，我不認為汽車與行動裝置之間的毛利差異對我們來說有那麼大。我不會說那裡正在發生某種產品組合轉移（mix shift），會成為逆風或順風。兩者的毛利其實相當接近、彼此混合。

As to when we would expect mobile to return, that's -- we know at least from the pattern from our largest customer that that's a Q2, 3Q phenomena. And we see no change to that sort of timing just based on their product introduction cycles.

至於我們預期行動裝置何時回來，那是——至少從我們最大客戶的模式來看，那是一個第二季、第三季的現象。而基於他們的產品導入週期，我們看不到這種時程有任何改變。

So for Teradyne's point of view, we would expect the big changes to occur in those 2 periods. There should be a little bit of pickup in Q1, a modest pickup, I would say, related to some other manufacturers, phone introductions, but 2Q, 3Q is the big quarter.

所以從泰瑞達（Teradyne）的角度來看，我們預期最大的變化會發生在那兩個期間。第一季應該會有一些回升，我會說是溫和的回升，與其他製造商的新機發表有關，但第二季、第三季才是大季。

Got it. That's very helpful. And then a follow-up, you touched upon a little bit of a decoupling between front-end WFE and Test investments. I just wanted to like go into one subset of that, which is China. It seems like some of the Chinese OSATs have slowed down spending, but the front-end spending is still continuing. I'm just kind of curious of your view on how China evolves for Test spending and for Teradyne.

了解。這很有幫助。接著追問，你稍微提到前段 WFE 與測試投資之間有些脫鉤。我想深入其中一個子題，也就是中國。看起來一些中國的 OSAT 放緩了支出，但前段支出仍在持續。我有點好奇你對中國測試支出以及對泰瑞達而言，中國將如何演變的看法。

Yes, China is -- and it's not just China, but I would say that the fab investments, generally speaking, are continuing unabated. Going back to that utilization question, you could make the argument that the 3-nanometer investments that have been made going back now over a year are hugely underutilized because no revenue is yet to be produced off of that.

是的，中國——而且不只是中國——但我會說一般而言，晶圓廠投資仍在持續、幾乎沒有放緩。回到那個利用率的問題，你可以主張，過去一年多以來所做的 3 奈米投資其實是嚴重利用不足，因為目前還沒有任何營收從那裡產出。

So the tooling -- the advanced time to tool and tune the recipe for 3-nanometer has become an unprecedentedly long cycle. And so all of that fab capacity is "underutilized until next year revenue starts flowing" specifically back to China. There's a disconnect between Test, lead times and thinking and fab lead times.

所以，3 奈米的設備導入與製程配方（recipe）調校所需的前置時間，已變成前所未有的長週期。因此，所有那些晶圓廠產能在「直到明年營收開始流入之前」都處於「利用不足」狀態——特別是回到中國這一點。測試的交期與思維，和晶圓廠的交期之間存在落差。

Fabs tend to get put in a whole slug of capacity with all of the front-end equipment installed quarters before production starts. Cash tends to be added as a spot market ad. So once the fab starts running, the initial capacity gets facilitated in Test in a quarter, devices ramp up and output of the fab ramps up in subsequent quarters and incrementally Test ramps up as well. So Test is a much smoother deployment than a fab.

晶圓廠往往會一次性導入一大批產能，把所有前段設備在開始量產前好幾個季度就先裝好。現金（cash）往往會以現貨市場加購（spot market ad）的方式補上。所以一旦晶圓廠開始運轉，初始產能會在一個季度內由測試端來支援，裝置開始爬坡，晶圓廠的產出在後續季度再爬坡，而測試也會逐步增加。因此，測試的部署比晶圓廠平滑得多。

And then the last thing, of course, going on in China, I think, is just the national priority around independence and access to technology has focused mainly on fab technology and therefore, it's the most, I would say, viewed as sort of threatening and enabling at the same time. And therefore, there's been a more, I'd say, resilient maybe counter economical push to invest in fab capacity there.

然後最後一點，當然，在中國正在發生的事情，我認為就是國家層面對於自主與取得技術的優先順序，主要聚焦在晶圓廠（fab）技術上；因此，我會說，它同時被視為既具威脅性又具賦能性。因此，也出現了更強、我會說更具韌性的、或許是反向的經濟推力，去投資當地的晶圓廠產能。

Our business in China is very strong. We have one major headwind, which is the largest single consumer of Test equipment in China, Huawei is somebody we cannot serve. But outside of that, we have a very strong business and a very decent growth that we're seeing there.

我們在中國的業務非常強勁。我們有一個主要逆風，也就是中國最大的單一測試設備消費者華為，是我們無法服務的客戶。但除此之外，我們的業務非常強，且我們在那裡看到相當不錯的成長。

Our final question comes from Mehdi Hosseini of SFG.

我們最後一個問題來自 SFG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

I want to go back to SOC Test. Mark, when I look at the trends since 2015, the SOC Test grew on a year-over-year basis. And perhaps there are 2 factors there. The parallel Test went away towards the end of the last decade and also the 5G that helped -- have started to be incremental in late 2019. And now we're here, you're guiding to $4.4 billion, which is still above the 2020 level.

我想回到 SOC 測試。Mark，當我看 2015 年以來的趨勢，SOC 測試是以年對年基礎成長的。而那裡可能有兩個因素。平行測試在上個十年末期逐漸消失，另外 5G 也在 2019 年底開始帶來增量。現在我們在這裡，你們指引到 44 億美元，仍高於 2020 年的水準。

So with that as a context, what gives you the confidence that we should see a quick snapback in SOC Test in '23 especially since your largest customer is expected to continue with bifurcation, not moving everything to the next leading edge [note]? I have a follow-up.

所以在這樣的背景下，是什麼讓你有信心我們應該會在 2023 年看到 SOC 測試快速反彈，特別是因為你們最大的客戶預期仍會持續採取分岔策略，並非把所有東西都移到下一個最先進製程節點 [note]？我有一個追問。

Okay. Good, Mehdi. You're right. Monotonic growth since 2015 has been true. And even with the $4.4 billion current midpoint view of the market in 2022, the trend line growth off of 2015 is still kind of a 10% CAGR. And we said all along, we run the business and expect volatility and sort of manage the business to the trend line. And the 10% CAGR is kind of in line with our midterm earnings model, too.

好的。很好，Mehdi。你說得對。自 2015 年以來的單調成長確實成立。即使以 2022 年市場目前 44 億美元的中位數觀點來看，從 2015 年起算的趨勢線成長仍大約是 10% 的年複合成長率（CAGR）。而我們一直都說，我們經營這門生意時會預期波動，並且以趨勢線來管理業務。而 10% 的 CAGR 也大致符合我們中期獲利模型。

So it's hard after so many years of monotonic sequential growth maybe to absorb that. But I think most of all of us have been around long enough to know that's part of history and not strange.

所以在這麼多年連續單調成長之後，可能很難消化這件事。但我想我們大多數人在這個產業待得夠久，都知道這是歷史的一部分，並不奇怪。

So the snapback or not in 2023. One thing I might want to just rewind a bit and preface my remarks on is that our tester market and our tester business demand is very sensitive to the growth rate of our customers. So for example, if a customer of ours is growing units at 4% and a year and creates a certain tester demand for us, if their growth rate nominally increases from 4% to 5%, small, small impact on their business, for Teradyne, that can be a 20%, 25% acceleration of demand for us because we -- our demand is driven off the first derivative, let's say, of customer growth.

至於 2023 年是否反彈。我想先稍微倒帶一下，作為我評論的前言：我們的測試機市場與測試機業務需求，對客戶的成長率非常敏感。舉例來說，如果我們某個客戶的出貨量一年成長 4%，會為我們帶來一定的測試機需求；若他們的成長率名目上從 4% 增加到 5%，對他們的業務只是很小的影響，但對 Teradyne 來說，可能就是 20%、25% 的需求加速，因為——我們的需求是由客戶成長的「一階導數」所驅動，可以這麼說。

And so obviously, we're very sensitive to what the macroeconomic conditions are going to be in 2023 around the growth rate of our customers. The technological issue around our largest customer in the smartphone market and the move to 3 nanometer, I think that's kind of baked in and is going to happen. Macroeconomically, what's going to be going on in the world and the inventory digestion or not that may be lagging from Q4 into early Q1, it's hard to tell right now. We're kind of reading tea leaves based on what we've seen happen, which I said is maybe about $100 million of demand drop out to what we're anticipating will happen.

因此，很顯然，我們對 2023 年總體經濟情勢將如何影響客戶成長率非常敏感。關於智慧型手機市場我們最大客戶的技術議題，以及轉向 3 奈米，我認為那基本上已經反映在預期之中，而且會發生。至於宏觀上世界會發生什麼事、庫存消化是否會從第四季延後到第一季初，現在很難判斷。我們有點像在看茶葉渣，根據我們看到的情況來推測；我先前說過，可能大約有 1 億美元的需求流失，相較於我們原先預期會發生的情況。

So I really wouldn't want to get too far out on the limb or forecast in 2023, but those are the factors at play.

所以我真的不想把話說得太滿或去預測 2023 年，但以上就是正在發揮作用的因素。

And one quick follow-up for Sanjay. Given all the color and guide, it seems like this year, revenues could be down mid-teens, plus/minus. And you're adjusting your OpEx -- OpEx growth of only 4% to 6%. Looking to next year, if we get a snapback, you do benefit from an easy compare from '22 into '23, should I assume that your OpEx growth would accelerate again? Or should I assume that the OpEx growth will be minimal to like, let's say, mid-single-digit percent, 5%?

再給 Sanjay 一個快速追問。綜合你們提供的各種細節與指引，看起來今年營收可能會下滑約中十位數百分比，上下浮動。而你們在調整營業費用（OpEx）——OpEx 成長只有 4% 到 6%。展望明年，如果出現反彈，你們確實會受惠於 2022 到 2023 的低基期，我是否應該假設你們的 OpEx 成長會再次加速？還是應該假設 OpEx 成長會維持很低，例如中個位數百分比，像 5%？

Yes. So Mehdi, this year, we had an anticipated plan. And obviously, as Mark said, we manage the business on a trend line, and we believe the fundamentals that we laid out in our January call and the earnings model are still intact in Test and IA.

是的。Mehdi，今年我們原本有一個預期計畫。而且如 Mark 所說，我們是以趨勢線來管理業務，我們相信我們在一月電話會議中所闡述的基本面，以及在測試（Test）與工業自動化（IA）的獲利模型，仍然完好。

With that backdrop, we did have a plan to increase OpEx 11% to 13%. And as I noted, we curtailed that, we believe in delaying some expenditures that aren't going to impact our long-term competitiveness. We haven't gone through the detailed planning in 2023. Of course, we'll provide that update in January. But my expectation is that we're going to keep the focus on what's going to help us be successful in the long term.

在這樣的背景下，我們確實有一個將 OpEx 提高 11% 到 13% 的計畫。而如我所提到的，我們縮減了該計畫；我們相信延後一些不會影響長期競爭力的支出是可行的。我們尚未完成 2023 年的詳細規劃。當然，我們會在一月提供更新。但我的預期是，我們會持續把重點放在能幫助我們長期成功的事情上。

And we're going to -- for example, we're going to keep on investing in industrial automation to secure the market going forward. We believe that, that market is still sub-5% penetrated, very good positions in our portfolio companies that go to market in that fashion.

而且我們將會——例如，我們會持續投資工業自動化，以確保未來的市場。我們相信那個市場的滲透率仍低於 5%；我們的投資組合公司在以那種方式進入市場方面，具備非常好的定位。

So my expectation is we're going to still operate at the kind of the 5% to 15% there and still keep our foot on the gas to grow to help drive that top line and capture more business. And in the Test portfolio, we're going to continue to ensure we have a very strong road map and a good go-to-market. The exact numbers I don't have right now, but the fundamentals of our business are the same.

所以我的預期是，我們仍會在那裡以大約 5% 到 15% 的水準運作，並且仍會踩著油門成長，來推動營收並爭取更多業務。在測試產品組合方面，我們也會持續確保我們有非常強的產品路線圖與良好的市場推進策略。確切數字我現在沒有，但我們業務的基本面是一樣的。

We're going through -- we're predicting to go through a little bit of a weaker second half than we anticipated. But at some point, this will snap back, which quarter that occurs. But we're going to keep our investment thesis intact.

我們正在經歷——我們預期下半年會比原先預想的更疲弱一些。但在某個時間點，這會反彈；至於會發生在哪一季——但我們會維持我們的投資論點不變。

And variable comp pool with revenue as we talked earlier.

而且如我們先前談到的，變動薪酬池會隨營收調整。

Okay. Folks, we are out of time. Mehdi, thank you for the question, and thanks, everybody, for their questions and attention. If you have follow-ups, please reach out, and we look forward to talking to you in the days and weeks ahead. Bye-bye.

好的，各位，我們時間到了。Mehdi，謝謝你的提問，也謝謝大家的問題與關注。如果你們有後續問題，請與我們聯繫，我們期待在接下來的幾天與幾週內再與各位交流。再見。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與。您現在可以掛線。