Spirit AeroSystems Holdings Inc (SPR) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc.'s Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Jordan, and I'll be your coordinator today. (Operator Instructions) I'd now like to turn the presentation over to Ryan Avey, Senior Director of Investor Relations and FP&A. Please proceed.

早上好，女士們、先生們，歡迎參加 Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. 的 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。我叫喬丹，今天我將擔任你們的協調員。 （操作員說明）我現在想將演示文稿交給投資者關係和 FP&A 高級總監 Ryan Avey。請繼續。

Thank you, Jordan, and good morning, everyone. I'm Ryan Avey and with me today are Spirit's President and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Gentile; Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Mark Suchinski; and President of Commercial and Chief Operating Officer, Sam Marnick.

謝謝喬丹，大家早上好。我是 Ryan Avey，今天和我在一起的還有 Spirit 的總裁兼首席執行官 Tom Gentile；高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Mark Suchinski；以及商業總裁兼首席運營官 Sam Marnick。

Before we begin, I need to remind you that any projections or goals we may include in our discussion today are likely to involve risks, including those detailed in our earnings release and our SEC filings and in the forward-looking statement at the end of this web presentation. In addition, we refer you to our earnings release and presentation for disclosures and reconciliation of non-GAAP measures we use when discussing our results. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to our Chief Executive Officer, Tom Gentile.

在我們開始之前，我需要提醒您，我們今天討論中可能包含的任何預測或目標都可能涉及風險，包括我們的收益發布和美國證券交易委員會文件以及本新聞稿末尾的前瞻性聲明中詳細說明的風險網絡演示。此外，我們建議您參閱我們的收益發布和演示文稿，以了解我們在討論結果時使用的非公認會計準則衡量標準的披露和調節。接下來，我想將電話轉給我們的首席執行官 Tom Gentile。

Thank you, Ryan, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Spirit's Second Quarter Results Call. I'll begin today by discussing the IAM contract and providing an update on the 737 vertical fin attached fitting progress.

謝謝瑞安，大家早上好。歡迎參加 Spirit 第二季度業績電話會議。今天我將首先討論 IAM 合同並提供 737 垂直尾翼安裝進度的最新信息。

On the IAM contract, we are very pleased to have in place a 4-year contract with our IAM represented employees, which reflects the gratitude we have for their contributions. While the first vote resulted in a work stoppage, we quickly went back to the table with our union partners and reached a resolution. Due to the work stoppage from the strike, we now expect to deliver between 370 and 390 units, 737 fuselages this year. The front of our production line is starting to break to 42 airplanes per month in August, but we won't be able to fully recover the lost manufacturing days from the work stoppage and the subsequent resumption of full production at our Wichita site.

關於 IAM 合同，我們很高興與 IAM 代表的員工簽訂了為期 4 年的合同，這反映了我們對他們的貢獻的感謝。雖然第一次投票導致停工，但我們很快與工會夥伴回到談判桌並達成了一項決議。由於罷工導致停工，我們預計今年將交付 370 至 390 架、737 架機身。 8 月份，我們的生產線前端開始突破每月 42 架飛機，但我們將無法完全恢復因停工和隨後在威奇托工廠全面恢復生產而損失的生產天數。

Mark will walk you through some of the financial impacts related to the new contract and work stoppage in his comments.

馬克將在評論中向您介紹與新合同和停工相關的一些財務影響。

On the vertical Fin attached fittings. First, all the rework on the available 737 fuselages in Wichita was completed during the second quarter, which was ahead of the time line we provided on our last call and within the financial estimates that we provided. We were quickly able to develop a repair process and prioritize the rework. I want to recognize our operations team for the incredible effort they made to develop the repair, implement it and maintain the schedule and budget.

在垂直翅片上附有配件。首先，威奇托現有 737 機身的所有返工工作均在第二季度完成，這超出了我們上次通話中提供的時間線，並且在我們提供的財務估計之內。我們很快就能夠制定修復流程並確定返工的優先順序。我想表彰我們的運營團隊為開發修復、實施修復以及維持進度和預算所做的令人難以置信的努力。

With regards to the units at Boeing, we have also recorded a provisional liability in the second quarter related to a potential claim for the repair work performed to date at Boeing. Additionally, we do not expect a material financial impact associated with previously delivered airplanes in the fleet.

對於波音公司的部門，我們還在第二季度記錄了與波音公司迄今為止進行的維修工作的潛在索賠相關的臨時負債。此外，我們預計機隊中之前交付的飛機不會產生重大財務影響。

Now turning to our commercial business. Commercial air traffic demand continues to be strong and is approaching full recovery to pre-COVID levels. Based on May results, global air traffic is at 96% of 2019 levels, with domestic air traffic now exceeding 2019 levels by 5% and international approving to 91% of 2019 levels. This strong recovery in traffic, combined with robust airline demand for new airplanes with improved fuel efficiency and seating capacity has fueled the recent large orders booked from airlines.

現在轉向我們的商業業務。商業航空交通需求持續強勁，並接近全面恢復至新冠疫情前的水平。根據 5 月份的結果，全球航空運輸量為 2019 年水平的 96%，其中國內航空運輸量現已超過 2019 年水平 5%，國際航空運輸量為 2019 年水平的 91%。客流量的強勁復甦，加上航空公司對燃油效率和載客量有所提高的新飛機的強勁需求，推動了航空公司近期的大量訂單。

As a result of these orders, our backlog at Spirit grew from $37 billion to $41 billion in the second quarter, which includes work packages on all commercial platforms in the Airbus and Boeing backlog.

由於這些訂單，我們第二季度 Spirit 的積壓訂單從 370 億美元增加到 410 億美元，其中包括空客和波音積壓訂單中所有商業平台的工作包。

We are focused on executing the upcoming rate increases to meet the strong recovery in demand. While we are making progress, there continues to be challenges in the supply chain, which have destabilized our production lines. We still see examples of distressed suppliers, even smaller ones, which have significantly disrupted our operations because of shortages we've had to address.

我們的重點是執行即將到來的加息，以滿足需求的強勁復甦。在我們取得進展的同時，供應鏈仍然面臨挑戰，這破壞了我們生產線的穩定性。我們仍然看到陷入困境的供應商的例子，甚至是規模較小的供應商，由於我們必須解決短缺問題，這些供應商嚴重擾亂了我們的運營。

Over the last 18 months, we have incurred impacts approaching $200 million from individual distressed suppliers and other supply chain pressures, which have been reflected in our past earnings. These challenges in the supply chain also drove some of the forward losses recorded in the second quarter, primarily on the 787, the A350 and the A220 programs.

在過去 18 個月中，個別陷入困境的供應商和其他供應鏈壓力給我們造成了近 2 億美元的影響，這些影響已反映在我們過去的收益中。供應鏈中的這些挑戰也導致了第二季度的一些遠期損失，主要是 787、A350 和 A220 項目。

Our priority for the second half of the year remains on execution within our factories and managing these supply chain challenges to meet production rate increases. While we continue to expect supply chain challenges, we have put plans in place to help mitigate the impacts. We have Spirit employees in the field, working with suppliers regularly, addressing rate readiness, helping them buy material, extending contracts and offloading work to release some of the pressure.

我們下半年的首要任務仍然是工廠內部的執行和管理這些供應鏈挑戰，以滿足生產率的提高。雖然我們仍然預計供應鏈將面臨挑戰，但我們已製定計劃來幫助減輕影響。我們有 Spirit 員工在現場，定期與供應商合作，解決價格準備問題，幫助他們購買材料，延長合同並減輕工作量以釋放一些壓力。

As we've mentioned previously, in our own factories, we are bringing in new employees earlier than we have in the past to help ensure a smoother transition on production rate breaks. Expectations for deliveries on our other programs for the year are as follows: 40 to 45 shipsets on 787, about 60 shipsets on the A350, 580 shipsets on the A320 and 75 to 80 shipsets on the A220.

正如我們之前提到的，在我們自己的工廠中，我們比過去更早地引進新員工，以幫助確保生產率中斷的平穩過渡。預計今年其他項目的交付量如下：787 交付 40 至 45 架飛機，A350 交付約 60 架飛機，A320 交付 580 架飛機，A220 交付 75 至 80 架飛機。

Now let's move to an update of our defense and aftermarket businesses which both continue to perform well toward our 2025 targets. Our Defense & Space business once again produced strong revenue growth, up 30% this quarter compared to the second quarter of 2022. The new business pipeline also remains robust, and we continue to make good inroads with the defense primes, displaying our design build capabilities and commercial best practices. Year-to-date, we have won 20 different contracts worth more than $200 million in total. We continue to bid on large defense programs and are on track to reach our target of $1 billion in Defense and Space revenue by 2025.

現在讓我們來看看我們的國防和售後市場業務的最新情況，這些業務在實現我們的 2025 年目標方面繼續表現良好。我們的國防和航天業務再次實現了強勁的收入增長，本季度與2022 年第二季度相比增長了30%。新業務管道也保持強勁，我們繼續在國防主力產品方面取得良好進展，展示了我們的設計構建能力和商業最佳實踐。今年迄今為止，我們已贏得 20 份不同的合同，總價值超過 2 億美元。我們繼續競標大型國防項目，並有望在 2025 年實現國防和航天收入 10 億美元的目標。

Our Aftermarket business also had another quarter of solid revenue growth, up 15% compared to the same quarter last year, driven by increased MRO and spares volume with strong operating margins of 26%, helped by some onetime items. The aftermarket team also remains on plan to reach their 2025 revenue target of $500 million. I'll now turn the call over to Mark to take you through some more of the financials for our results. Over to you, Mark.

在MRO 和備件數量增加的推動下，我們的售後市場業務收入又實現了一個季度的穩健增長，與去年同期相比增長了15%，在一些一次性產品的幫助下，運營利潤率高達26% 。售後市場團隊仍計劃實現 2025 年 5 億美元的收入目標。現在我將把電話轉給馬克，帶您了解更多有關我們業績的財務數據。交給你了，馬克。

Thanks, Tom, and good morning, everyone. I want to begin by discussing the 2 significant items that occurred during the second quarter, the 737 vertical fin attached fitting rework and the Wichita IAM negotiations. The teams worked diligently throughout the quarter on the 737 vertical fin attached fitting rework related to the quality issue that we explained in April. We're pleased to have resolved the required rework on available units in Wichita within the $31 million cost estimate we discussed on the last earnings call.

謝謝，湯姆，大家早上好。我想首先討論第二季度發生的兩個重要事項，即 737 垂直尾翼附件返工和威奇托 IAM 談判。該團隊整個季度都在努力進行與我們在 4 月份解釋的質量問題相關的 737 垂直尾翼附件返工工作。我們很高興在上次財報電話會議上討論的 3100 萬美元成本估算範圍內解決了威奇托可用單元所需的返工問題。

We recorded a contra-revenue charge of $23 million in the quarter to account for a potential claim from Boeing related to our estimate of the repair work to date at their facility, which we believe represents about half of the units. However, I want to emphasize that any potential claim we may receive from Boeing could be materially different from our estimate.

我們在本季度記錄了2300 萬美元的收入抵銷費用，以解釋波音可能提出的索賠，該索賠與我們對其工廠迄今為止的維修工作的估計有關，我們認為該維修工作約佔該工廠維修工作的一半。然而，我想強調的是，我們可能從波音公司收到的任何潛在索賠可能與我們的估計存在重大差異。

Now as it relates to the IAM. The IAM negotiations and strike disruption affected all of our programs at the Wichita, Kansas site, which the 737 program was mostly impacted. Financial impacts during the quarter included $28 million of charges in the estimates primarily related to higher employee benefits, including wages from the new AIM contract as well as strike disruption charges of $7 million and higher excess capacity costs.

現在與 IAM 相關。 IAM 談判和罷工中斷影響了我們在堪薩斯州威奇托工廠的所有項目，其中 737 項目受到的影響最大。本季度的財務影響包括估計中的 2800 萬美元費用，主要與較高的員工福利相關，包括新 AIM 合同的工資以及 700 萬美元的罷工中斷費用和較高的過剩產能成本。

Additionally, as we look ahead over the life of the new union contract, we are forecasting labor costs to be approximately $80 million more on an annual basis. This will put pressure on margins going forward in addition to the broader inflationary pressures we are experiencing. With the quality issue resolved in our factory and a new labor contract in place, our entire focus is directed towards executing on our customer commitments, including the upcoming production rate increases.

此外，當我們展望新工會合同的有效期時，我們預計勞動力成本每年將增加約 8000 萬美元。除了我們正在經歷的更廣泛的通脹壓力之外，這還將給未來的利潤率帶來壓力。隨著我們工廠的質量問題得到解決並簽訂了新的勞動合同，我們的全部重點都集中在履行我們的客戶承諾上，包括即將到來的生產率提高。

Now let me take you through the details of our second quarter financial results. So let's move to Slide 2. Revenue for the quarter was $1.4 billion, up 8% from the second quarter of 2022. Second quarter 2023 revenue was impacted by disruption from the vertical fin attached fitting issue as well as the IAM work stoppage. The year-over-year improvement was primarily due to higher production on the 737 and 787 programs and increased Defense and Space revenue, partially offset by lower production on the A220 program.

現在讓我向您詳細介紹我們第二季度的財務業績。讓我們轉到幻燈片 2。該季度的收入為 14 億美元，比 2022 年第二季度增長 8%。2023 年第二季度的收入受到垂直翅片安裝問題以及 IAM 停工的影響。同比增長主要是由於 737 和 787 項目的產量增加以及國防和航天收入的增加，但部分被 A220 項目產量的下降所抵消。

The Defense & Space segment had a strong quarter with top line growth of 30%, increasing revenue by about $45 million. Also, aftermarket had a robust performance with 15% revenue growth and 26% margins. Overall, deliveries for the quarter increased 8% on a year-over-year basis.

國防與航天部門本季度業績強勁，營收增長 30%，收入增加約 4500 萬美元。此外，售後市場也表現強勁，收入增長 15%，利潤率 26%。總體而言，本季度交付量同比增長 8%。

Now let's turn our attention to EPS. We reported earnings per share of negative $1.96 compared to negative $1.17 in the second quarter of 2022. Excluding certain items, adjusted EPS was negative $1.46 compared to negative $1.21 in the prior year. Operating margin decreased slightly to negative 9% compared to negative 8% in the same period of 2022, driven by higher changes in estimates as well as the potential customer claim that I discussed in my opening remarks, partially offset by the absence of losses related to the Russian sanctions recognized during the second quarter of 2022 and increased aftermarket earnings.

現在讓我們把注意力轉向每股收益。我們報告的每股收益為負 1.96 美元，而 2022 年第二季度為負 1.17 美元。排除某些項目，調整後每股收益為負 1.46 美元，而上一年為負 1.21 美元。與 2022 年同期的負 8% 相比，營業利潤率小幅下降至負 9%，原因是預估變化較大以及我在開場白中討論的潛在客戶索賠，但部分抵消了與俄羅斯制裁於2022 年第二季度生效，並增加了售後市場收益。

Second quarter forward losses totaled $105 million, and unfavorable cumulative catch-up adjustments were $22 million. This is compared to $64 million of forward losses and $8 million of unfavorable cumulative catch-up adjustments in the second quarter of 2022. The current quarter forward losses relate primarily to the 787, A350 and A220 programs. The 787 forward losses of $38 million resulted from the new IAM union contract as well as increased supply chain and other production-related costs. The A350 charges of $28 million were primarily due to increased costs related to production rate recovery efforts, including freight as well as unfavorable foreign currency movements, and the A220 loss of $27 million was driven by higher estimates of supply chain costs and unfavorable foreign currency fluctuations.

第二季度遠期損失總計 1.05 億美元，不利的累計追趕調整為 2200 萬美元。相比之下，2022 年第二季度的遠期損失為 6400 萬美元，不利的累積追趕調整為 800 萬美元。當前季度的遠期損失主要與 787、A350 和 A220 項目有關。 787 的遠期損失達 3800 萬美元，原因是新的 IAM 工會合同以及供應鍊和其他生產相關成本的增加。 A350 費用為 2800 萬美元，主要是由於與生產率恢復工作相關的成本增加，包括運費以及不利的外匯變動，而 A220 損失 2700 萬美元是由於對供應鏈成本的較高估計和不利的外匯波動造成的。

Additionally, the unfavorable cumulative catch-up adjustments relate primarily to the 737 program, reflecting increased labor costs from the IAM union negotiations as well as higher supply chain costs. Other expense in the second quarter of this year was $10 million compared to other income of $35 million in the prior year. This variance was due to gain recorded in the second quarter of 2022 of $21 million related to the settlement of the repayable investment agreement with the U.K. Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy as well as lower pension income and higher foreign currency losses recognized in the quarter.

此外，不利的累積追趕調整主要與 737 項目有關，反映出 IAM 工會談判導致的勞動力成本增加以及供應鏈成本上升。今年第二季度的其他支出為 1000 萬美元，而上一年的其他收入為 3500 萬美元。 This variance was due to gain recorded in the second quarter of 2022 of $21 million related to the settlement of the repayable investment agreement with the U.K. Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy as well as lower pension income and higher foreign currency losses recognized in the四分之一.

Now let's turn to free cash flow. Free cash flow usage for the quarter was $211 million. Cash usage increased compared to the same period of 2022, largely driven by the negative impacts to working capital resulting from the rework and disruption related to the quality issue and the IAM work stoppage as well as preparation for the third quarter 737 production rate increase. Second quarter 2023 cash from operations was also included customer advances of $50 million as well as an excise tax payment of $36 million related to the termination of the pension value Plan A.

現在讓我們轉向自由現金流。本季度自由現金流使用量為 2.11 億美元。與 2022 年同期相比，現金使用量有所增加，主要是由於質量問題、IAM 停工以及為第三季度 737 生產率提高做準備而導致的返工和中斷對營運資本造成的負面影響。 2023 年第二季度的運營現金還包括 5000 萬美元的客戶預付款以及與終止養老金價值計劃 A 相關的 3600 萬美元的消費稅。

Looking ahead, the new union contract was in line with our 2023 free cash flow expectations. However, the work stoppage resulting from the IAM work stoppage led to fewer 737 deliveries that will not be able to be made up in the back half of the year. We now expect full year 737 deliveries to be in the range of 370 to 390 units. Additionally, during these periods of disruption, we continue to receive materials and inventory to support our own supply chain, which caused additional pressure to free cash flows. These items, in combination with additional forward losses taken during the quarter will negatively impact full year cash flows.

展望未來，新的工會合同符合我們 2023 年自由現金流的預期。但由於IAM停工導致737交付量減少，下半年無法彌補。我們目前預計 737 全年交付量將在 370 至 390 架之間。此外，在這些中斷時期，我們繼續接收材料和庫存來支持我們自己的供應鏈，這對自由現金流造成了額外的壓力。這些項目加上本季度發生的額外遠期損失將對全年現金流產生負面影響。

Given these headwinds, we are now expecting our free -- full year free cash flow to be in the range of negative $200 million to $250 million. This updated range includes the benefit of $100 million of customer advances, which I will explain in more detail on the next slide. With that, let's now turn to our cash and debt balances on Slide 3.

考慮到這些不利因素，我們現在預計全年自由現金流將在負 2 億美元至 2.5 億美元之間。這個更新的範圍包括 1 億美元的客戶預付款的好處，我將在下一張幻燈片中更詳細地解釋這一點。現在，讓我們看看幻燈片 3 上的現金和債務餘額。

We ended the quarter with $526 million of cash and $3.9 billion of debt. As I discussed on the last earnings call, as part of our subsequent event discussion, we entered into agreements during the second quarter with our customers to provide cash advances. As a result, we will receive $280 million this year, of which $230 million was received in the second quarter and $50 million will be received in the fourth quarter. We plan to repay these advances with payments of $90 million in 2024 and $190 million in 2025.

本季度末，我們擁有 5.26 億美元現金和 39 億美元債務。正如我在上次財報電話會議上討論的那樣，作為後續活動討論的一部分，我們在第二季度與客戶簽訂了提供現金預付款的協議。因此，我們今年將收到2.8億美元，其中第二季度收到2.3億美元，第四季度收到5000萬美元。我們計劃在 2024 年和 2025 年分別償還 9000 萬美元和 1.9 億美元的預付款。

$180 million of these advances were received from Boeing and are categorized as other liabilities on the balance sheet and reflected as cash from financing on the statement of cash flows. The remaining $100 million is categorized as advances on the balance sheet and reflected as cash from operations and therefore, included in free cash flow.

其中 1.8 億美元是從波音公司收到的，在資產負債表上被歸類為其他負債，並在現金流量表上反映為融資現金。剩餘的 1 億美元在資產負債表上被歸類為預付款，並反映為運營現金，因此包含在自由現金流中。

Receiving these advances will help provide additional cushion as we incur the near-term financial impacts from the lower 737 deliveries and the buildup of inventory for production rate increases. We continue to have access to public financing markets, and we'll be looking at all available financing options to address our 2025 debt maturities as well as our overall liquidity.

收到這些預付款將有助於提供額外的緩衝，因為我們會因 737 交付量減少和生產率增加而增加庫存而受到短期財務影響。我們將繼續進入公共融資市場，並將考慮所有可用的融資方案，以解決 2025 年債務到期問題以及整體流動性問題。

Next, let's discuss our segment performance, starting with Commercial segment on Slide 4. In the second quarter of 2023, Commercial revenue increased 5% over the same period of 2022, due to higher production volumes on the 737 and 787 programs, partially offset by lower A220 production. Commercial revenue was negatively impacted by disruptions from the vertical fin attached fitting issue and the IAM work stoppage.

接下來，讓我們從幻燈片 4 上的商業部門開始討論我們的部門業績。2023 年第二季度，商業收入較 2022 年同期增長 5%，原因是 737 和 787 項目的產量增加，部分抵消了降低A220產量。商業收入受到垂直翅片安裝問題和 IAM 停工造成的負面影響。

Quarterly, operating margin decreased to negative 7% compared to negative 4% in the prior year, driven by higher unfavorable changes in estimates in the current period and the potential customer claim offset by the absence of losses related to the Russian sanctions recognized during the second quarter of 2022.

與上一年的負4% 相比，季度營業利潤率下降至負7%，原因是本期估計的不利變化加大，以及潛在客戶索賠被第二季度確認的與俄羅斯制裁相關的損失不存在所抵消。 2022 年第四季度。

The changes in estimates during the second quarter, which I previously discussed, included forward losses of $102 million and unfavorable cumulative catch-up adjustments of $16 million. In comparison to the second quarter of 2022, the segment recorded charges of $59 million of forward losses and $8 million of unfavorable cumulative catch-up adjustments.

我之前討論過的第二季度預估變化包括 1.02 億美元的遠期損失和 1600 萬美元的不利累計追趕調整。與 2022 年第二季度相比，該部門記錄了 5900 萬美元的遠期損失費用和 800 萬美元的不利累積追趕調整費用。

Additionally, in the second quarter of 2022, in relation to the sanctioned Russian business activities, the segment recognized net losses of $24 million.

此外，2022 年第二季度，與受制裁的俄羅斯商業活動相關，該部門確認淨虧損 2400 萬美元。

Now let's turn to Defense & Space segment on Slide 5. Defense & Space revenue grew to $190 million or 30% higher than the second quarter of last year due to higher development program activity and increased P-8 production. Operating margin for the quarter decreased to 6% compared to 9% in 2022, primarily due to increased costs on the P-8 and the KC-46 tanker resulting from the IAM union negotiations and higher supply chain costs as well as onetime charges on the Sikorsky CH-53K program.

現在讓我們轉向幻燈片 5 上的國防與航天部門。由於開發計劃活動增加和 P-8 產量增加，國防與航天收入增長至 1.9 億美元，比去年第二季度高出 30%。與 2022 年的 9% 相比，本季度的運營利潤率下降至 6%，主要是由於 IAM 工會談判導致 P-8 和 KC-46 加油機成本增加、供應鏈成本上升以及一次性費用西科斯基CH-53K 計劃。

The segment recorded forward losses of $3 million, unfavorable cumulative catch-up adjustments of $6 million and excess capacity cost of $1 million compared to forward losses of $4 million and excess capacity cost of $2 million in the second quarter of 2022.

該部門的遠期損失為300 萬美元，不利的累計追趕調整為600 萬美元，產能過剩成本為100 萬美元，而2022 年第二季度的遠期虧損為400 萬美元，產能過剩成本為200 萬美元。

For our Aftermarket segment results, let's turn to Slide 6. Aftermarket revenues were $92 million, up 15% compared to the second quarter of 2022, primarily due to higher spare part sales and MRO activity. Aftermarket growth continues to be supported by the global recovery in air travel and is on track to meet the plan for the year. Operating margin was very strong for the quarter at 26%. However, don't expect it to continue at this level going forward.

對於我們的售後市場部門業績，讓我們轉向幻燈片 6。售後市場收入為 9200 萬美元，比 2022 年第二季度增長 15%，這主要是由於備件銷售和 MRO 活動的增加。售後市場的增長繼續受到全球航空旅行複甦的支持，並有望實現今年的計劃。本季度營業利潤率非常強勁，達到 26%。然而，不要指望它會繼續保持在這個水平。

The increase compared to the same period of 2022 was primarily due to higher margins on increased activity, the absence of Russian sanction losses recognized during the second quarter of 2022 and a onetime benefit that will not repeat of $2 million.

與 2022 年同期相比的增長主要是由於活動增加帶來的利潤率提高、2022 年第二季度確認的俄羅斯制裁損失不存在以及一次性收益 200 萬美元不會重複。

Despite the recent challenges, we believe we are moving in the right direction. Going forward, we are focused on the long-term trajectory of our business. Our top priority is on the execution and stability in our factories with rate increases in the back half of this year as well as in 2024 and 2025. Supply chain remains very challenged, but we will continue our efforts to mitigate the impact and improve predictability as the industry continues to recover.

儘管最近面臨挑戰，但我們相信我們正在朝著正確的方向前進。展望未來，我們將專注於業務的長期發展軌跡。我們的首要任務是工廠的執行力和穩定性，今年下半年以及 2024 年和 2025 年將加價。供應鏈仍然面臨很大挑戰，但我們將繼續努力減輕影響並提高可預測性行業持續復甦。

There is work to do, but demand is strong, and we are working hard to restore our operational and financial strength. Now let me turn it back over to Tom for some closing comments.

還有工作要做，但需求強勁，我們正在努力恢復我們的運營和財務實力。現在讓我把它轉回給湯姆，讓他發表一些結束語。

Thanks, Mark. In summary, commercial aerospace demand is strong, and we are on the best platforms to take advantage of this demand. We worked through 2 recent challenging issues in the second quarter with the IAM contract and the vertical fin attached rework in Wichita. We expect that there will be continued challenges associated with the supply chain and stabilizing our factories going forward. We are making prudent investments and applying resources in the right places to help mitigate these challenges.

謝謝，馬克。總而言之，商業航空航天需求強勁，我們處於利用這一需求的最佳平台。我們在第二季度通過 IAM 合同和威奇託的垂直尾翼返工解決了最近的兩個具有挑戰性的問題。我們預計未來供應鍊和穩定工廠將繼續面臨挑戰。我們正在進行審慎的投資，並將資源運用到正確的地方，以幫助緩解這些挑戰。

Our focus in the back half of the year is on executing our production rate increases across all programs. We expect these actions will help enable us to drive sustained improvement in cash flows going forward. With that, we'll be happy to take your questions.

我們下半年的重點是提高所有項目的生產率。我們預計這些行動將有助於我們推動未來現金流的持續改善。這樣，我們將很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Myles Walton of Wolfe Research.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Myles Walton。

Mark, maybe you can start with the free cash flow. I think when I adjust for the advance, you've lowered it by about $200 million. And certainly have some discrete items. I guess I was thinking might add up to $100 million as opposed to the $200 million. So maybe you can just walk us through the -- maybe a little bit more discretely the elements of that $200 million revision.

馬克，也許你可以從自由現金流開始。我想當我調整預付款時，你們已經將其減少了大約 2 億美元。當然還有一些離散的項目。我想我當時想的可能是 1 億美元，而不是 2 億美元。因此，也許您可​​以向我們介紹一下 2 億美元的修訂​​版的各個要素，也許更具體一些。

Sure, Myles. Good to hear from you. Yes, I think the big impacts really -- I've tried to cover it, first and foremost, with the work stoppage in Wichita, it's had an impact on deliveries and obviously, 737 is the most significant program we have but -- essentially June 20. And so there's going to be some of the deliveries that we won't be able to make up. There's the cost of that disruption. We're taking on more inventory to support the rate increase in the back half of the year, and we continue to bring on more inventory as a mitigator for some of the challenges that we've seen in our supply chain.

當然，邁爾斯。很高興聽到你的消息。是的，我認為確實有很大的影響- 我已經試圖涵蓋它，首先也是最重要的是，威奇託的停工，它對交付產生了影響，顯然，737 是我們最重要的計劃，但是-本質上6 月 20 日。因此，有些交貨是我們無法彌補的。這種破壞是有代價的。我們正在增加庫存以支持今年下半年的價格上漲，並且我們將繼續增加庫存，以緩解我們在供應鏈中遇到的一些挑戰。

I would also tell you that if you look at our forward loss, additional forward loss charges that we booked both in the first and second quarter, that's going to put pressure on cash in the back half of the year. So really, I think to summarize it, lower Boeing deliveries led by 737, us taking on more inventory to protect the production system and then higher forward loss charges that we book that will end up having a negative impact on cash. And I think those will put us within the new guide that we have here and the goal really is to set this guidance for you, deliver on this and make sure that we meet the cash flow targets that we've provided to you.

我還想告訴你，如果你看看我們的遠期損失，我們在第一季度和第二季度預訂的額外遠期損失費用，這將給下半年的現金帶來壓力。所以說實話，我認為總結一下，737 導致波音交付量下降，我們需要更多庫存來保護生產系統，然後我們預訂的遠期損失費用更高，最終將對現金產生負面影響。我認為這些將使我們處於我們這裡的新指南中，目標實際上是為您制定該指南，實現這一目標並確保我們達到我們向您提供的現金流量目標。

And Myles, I'd just add one other way to look at it which is where we are right now in the year. In Q1, we had a negative $69 million. In Q2, it was negative $211 million. So that put us at negative $280 million. And our goal is to be essentially breakeven in Q3 and Q4. And as Mark said, the next $50 million from the customer advance is going to be treated as cash flow. So that would put us at $230 million, which is right in the middle of our range of negative $200 million to $250 million.

邁爾斯，我只想添加另一種看待它的方式，這就是我們今年所處的位置。第一季度，我們的虧損為 6900 萬美元。第二季度為負 2.11 億美元。因此，我們的收入為負 2.8 億美元。我們的目標是在第三季度和第四季度基本實現盈虧平衡。正如馬克所說，接下來的 5000 萬美元客戶預付款將被視為現金流。因此，我們的收入為 2.3 億美元，正好處於負 2 億美元至 2.5 億美元範圍的中間。

Our next question comes from Ken Herbert of RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的肯·赫伯特。

Tom and Mark, this is Steve Strackhouse on for Ken Herbert. Last call, we had discussed about 75% of the 250 aircraft in Boeing's inventory. Potentially another 500 in the field. The Boeing has completed the rework on about half of those and the contract revenue amount is for $23 million. This implies a cost of about $67,000 per aircraft, which is about half of what you guys had said it was last quarter for yourselves. Is this a fair way to -- is it fair for us to think that the $23 million should effectively double? Or can you give us a little bit more color on the number of aircraft that Boeing has identified or the cost to them?

湯姆和馬克，我是肯·赫伯特的史蒂夫·斯特萊克豪斯。上次通話時，我們討論了波音庫存 250 架飛機中的約 75%。可能還有 500 人在現場。波音公司已經完成了其中約一半的返工，合同收入為2300萬美元。這意味著每架飛機的成本約為 67,000 美元，大約是你們上個季度所說的成本的一半。這是一種公平的方式嗎——我們認為 2300 萬美元實際上應該翻倍是否公平？或者您能給我們更多關於波音已確定的飛機數量或飛機成本的信息嗎？

Yes. No, that's -- Ken, so there's a few things that -- let me highlight and go through it. We think that they've repaired about half the units that they need to repair so call it, [73% or 74%]. So that is a little bit less than the 75% of the $250 million. So it's really the [73%] that they've repaired, the $23 million repair estimate aligns to that. And so we've tried to make some conservative estimates. And it's just based on the units that are at Boeing, nothing in the fleet.

是的。不，那是——肯，所以有一些事情——讓我強調並回顧一下。我們認為他們已經修復了大約一半需要修復的單位，所以稱之為[73% 或 74%]。所以這比 2.5 億美元中的 75% 略少一些。所以他們確實修復了 [73%]，2300 萬美元的修復預算與此相符。因此我們嘗試做出一些保守的估計。它只是基於波音公司的單位，機隊中沒有任何內容。

So our view is that as our understanding of the current disposition in the fleet is we don't expect any material impact for units in the fleet. So the $23 million only represents the units that are at Boeing and yes, it represents half of what we think is going to need to be done eventually. But that was the best estimate we could make. And so we took the charge based on the low end of that estimate.

因此，我們的觀點是，根據我們對機隊當前部署的了解，我們預計不會對機隊中的部隊產生任何重大影響。因此，2300 萬美元僅代表波音公司的設備，是的，它代表了我們認為最終需要完成的工作的一半。但這是我們能做出的最佳估計。因此，我們根據該估計的下限收取費用。

Yes. So I think if you do the math on that, you get a significantly different number than you quoted on the repair cost per unit.

是的。所以我認為，如果你對此進行數學計算，你會得到一個與你引用的每單位維修成本明顯不同的數字。

I think, yes, I think you had that wrong.

我想，是的，我認為你錯了。

Our next question comes from David Strauss of Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的大衛·施特勞斯。

So the updated free cash flow forecast, I mean you've got -- in terms of nonrecurring positive, you got $100 million of advances. You've got the $180 million pension benefit. So apples-to-apples, it's kind of a $500 million burn this year. Is there any way to bridge still the positive free cash flow in 2024?

因此，更新後的自由現金流預測，我的意思是，就非經常性正數而言，您獲得了 1 億美元的預付款。您已獲得 1.8 億美元的養老金福利。因此，從同類來看，今年相當於燒掉了 5 億美元。有沒有辦法在 2024 年仍然保持正的自由現金流？

I mean the simple answer is rate increases, primarily on the 737. And that's going to also help the back half of this year. As I mentioned, we're basically moving to 42 aircraft per month cycling in August, and we'll continue at that rate for the rest of this year. And then next year, that will be our starting point. So the improvement in cash flow is really going to be delivering more aircraft, primarily the 737.

我的意思是，簡單的答案是提高費率，尤其是 737。這也將有助於今年下半年。正如我所提到的，我們在 8 月份基本上每月有 42 架飛機進行騎行，並且我們將在今年剩餘時間繼續保持這一速度。明年，這將是我們的起點。因此，現金流的改善實際上將交付更多飛機，主要是 737。

And also then, David, we won't need to build as much inventory spare parts as the -- and stores inventory as the supply chain continues to get healthy. So we're -- there's no doubt we're taking on a lot of inventory at this point in time to prepare for those higher production rates to drive stability. So as Tom said, I think the 2 primary drivers are higher deliveries, which will generate more gross profit, which generates cash.

而且，大衛，隨著供應鏈繼續健康發展，我們將不需要建立與商店庫存一樣多的庫存備件。因此，毫無疑問，我們目前正在儲備大量庫存，為更高的生產率做好準備，以推動穩定。正如湯姆所說，我認為兩個主要驅動因素是更高的交付量，這將產生更多的毛利潤，從而產生現金。

The higher production rates will help us absorb more excess costs, and that's cash cost that will be mitigated. And then the third component is getting to a much better place as it relates to inventory and getting past some of these one-off forward loss charges that are putting additional pressure on the current year cash flow.

更高的生產率將幫助我們吸收更多的超額成本，這就是可以減輕的現金成本。第三個組成部分正在變得更好，因為它與庫存有關，並克服了一些一次性遠期損失費用，這些費用給本年度現金流帶來了額外的壓力。

Okay. A quick follow-up on the MAX rate. Can you just reconcile -- I think, Tom, you said you're still breaking the 42 here over the near term, but your implied second half of the year delivery guidance looks like it's averaging kind of 35 a month. So can you just reconcile that? And does Boeing or is there enough in buffer stock at this point given what it looks like here shortfall relative to Boeing's rate to allow Boeing to hit the 38 a month that they're now trying to achieve.

好的。快速跟進 MAX 速率。你能調和一下嗎 - 我想，湯姆，你說過你在短期內仍將打破 42，但你隱含的下半年交付指導看起來是平均每月 35。那麼你能調和一下嗎？考慮到與波音的利率相比，波音目前的緩衝庫存是否足夠，可以讓波音達到他們現在試圖實現的每月 38 架的目標。

Right. So you're right. If you just do the math, if we're at 169 units delivered to date and you take the midpoint of our guidance on [370 to 390 to 380 units], that would imply $211 million for the back half of the year for 6 months, which is 35 per month. But the way I would say it is we're cycling at 42. So we've got the headcount in place. We've got 2 full lines, each producing 21 aircraft per month. So we are cycling at 42 per month.

正確的。所以你是對的。如果你算一下，如果我們迄今為止交付了 169 個單位，並且你取我們指導的中點 [370 到 390 到 380 個單位]，這意味著今年下半年 6 個月的收入為 2.11 億美元，即每月35。但我想說的是，我們的騎行人數為 42 人。所以我們已經確定了人員編制。我們有 2 條完整的生產線，每條每月生產 21 架飛機。所以我們每月騎自行車 42 次。

The reason it's a little bit less than 42 in the back half of the year is just unscheduled days, so m days that we are actually building. So you think about Labor Day, Thanksgiving, day after Thanksgiving and so forth. So there's several unscheduled days. And then in addition to that, we'll be firing blanks through the production line as we normally do to increase surge capacity and just provide some cushion into the production. So that's why the average is 35. But we are cycling now at 42 per month. We will end the year at -- delivering at 42 per month, and that will be the starting point for next year.

下半年比 42 少一點的原因只是計劃外的天數，所以我們實際正在建設的天數是 m。所以你會想到勞動節、感恩節、感恩節後的第二天等等。所以還有好幾天沒有安排好。除此之外，我們將像往常一樣通過生產線燒製坯料，以增加激增產能並為生產提供一些緩衝。這就是為什麼平均騎行次數是 35 次。但我們現在的騎行次數是每月 42 次。我們的年底交付量為每月 42 點，這將是明年的起點。

In terms of the buffer, as you know, we built up buffer during the period of time when the MAX was grounded, and we were still building at 52 a month and delivering to Boeing at 42 per month. The good news is that, that buffer came in very handy during both the vertical fin issue and the strike. We were able to deliver more units from buffer to help minimize the disruption to Boeing. And so the buffer has gone down, but we still have about 50 to 55 units in Wichita, and then there's some others that are held up in Seattle. Some of those units are for customers that aren't going to deliver in the near term, like, for example, for China. But the buffer is still performing a very valuable function to ensure that we can meet Boeing's production rates as they go up and as we go up.

就緩衝而言，如您所知，我們在 MAX 停飛期間建立了緩衝，我們仍然以每月 52 架的速度建造，並以每月 42 架的速度交付給波音。好消息是，該緩衝器在垂直尾翼問題和罷工期間都非常方便。我們能夠從緩衝中交付更多單位，以幫助最大限度地減少對波音的干擾。因此，緩衝區已經減少，但我們在威奇托仍有大約 50 至 55 個單位，還有其他一些單位在西雅圖被擱置。其中一些單位是為短期內不會交付的客戶提供的，例如中國。但緩衝區仍然發揮著非常有價值的作用，以確保我們能夠滿足波音公司生產率的提高和我們的生產率的提高。

Our next question comes from Seth Seifman of JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的塞思·塞夫曼。

When we look at the continued forward loss charges on the A350 and the A220 and Spirit kind of having to absorb the supply chain challenges there, I guess when we think about Airbus as a customer, it seems like Spirit is losing money there. We'll continue to lose money there for a while. And we know from what Airbus says that they plan to continue to make structures a core internal capability for them. I mean does it -- at some point, is this not sustainable to continue working with them?

當我們看到 A350 和 A220 的持續遠期損失費用以及 Spirit 不得不承受那裡的供應鏈挑戰時，我想當我們將空客視為客戶時，Spirit 似乎在那裡虧損。我們將繼續在那裡虧損一段時間。我們從空中客車公司的說法中得知，他們計劃繼續將結構作為其核心內部能力。我的意思是——在某些時候，繼續與他們合作是否不可持續？

Yes, yes. So thanks, Seth. I would say this is Airbus is a valued customer. They are 1 of the 2 big commercial manufacturers of aircraft in the world. And it's very important that Spirit as an aerostructure provider supports them as well as Boeing and also expands into defense. So I would say Airbus is an important customer, and we want to continue to develop and further that relationship.

是的是的。所以謝謝，賽斯。我想說的是，空客是一位尊貴的客戶。他們是世界上兩大商業飛機製造商之一。非常重要的是，Spirit 作為航空結構供應商為他們以及波音提供支持，並擴展到國防領域。所以我想說空客是一個重要的客戶，我們希望繼續發展和進一步發展這種關係。

But I'd also say that you're absolutely right, the A350 and the A220 have been very challenged programs and have been in forward losses. And as we look broadly in the industry and air traffic is recovering, as I said in my remarks, there's obviously huge strong demand for aircraft. And we saw that at Paris, which was actually the third highest air show ever in terms of orders. So very high demand for aircraft. And yet, we're here in a very supply-constrained environment. And it's really important for the entire aerospace industry value chain to be financially healthy during this period, particularly as we go up in production rates.

但我還要說，你說得完全正確，A350 和 A220 一直是非常具有挑戰性的項目，並且一直處於前進損失之中。正如我在講話中所說，當我們放眼整個行業和空中交通正在復蘇時，對飛機的需求顯然非常強勁。我們在巴黎航空展上看到了這一點，就訂單而言，這實際上是有史以來第三高的航展。所以對飛機的需求非常高。然而，我們正處於供應非常有限的環境中。在此期間，整個航空航天業價值鏈保持財務健康非常重要，特別是當我們提高生產率時。

And so the way we see it is that suppliers, including Spirit, are experiencing inflation in materials, in logistics, in utilities, in labor, you just saw our increased labor costs, which are going to add about $80 million of cost per year. And on top of that, there's heightened expectations on quality, on fluctuating schedules. So all of these things are driving higher costs and programs, including on our Airbus programs, the A350 and A220, but also on our 787 program with Boeing. And these are important issues that the OEMs will need to address in the long term and these are important conversations that we are having right now with our customers.

所以我們看到的是，包括 Spirit 在內的供應商正在經歷材料、物流、公用事業、勞動力方面的通貨膨脹，你剛剛看到了我們勞動力成本的增加，這每年將增加約 8000 萬美元的成本。最重要的是，人們對質量和不斷變化的時間表抱有更高的期望。因此，所有這些因素都在推動更高的成本和項目，包括我們的空客項目、A350 和 A220，以及我們與波音合作的 787 項目。這些是原始設備製造商長期需要解決的重要問題，也是我們現在與客戶進行的重要對話。

Our next question comes from Robert Spingarn of Melius Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Robert Spingarn。

Just a clarification and then a question on margins. But Tom, when you -- just in terms of the vertical fin issues and the installed fleet, I think you and Mark have said, you haven't establish that exposure? Is it because there isn't any or we're not there yet, the inspections haven't occurred and you don't have a way to do that. So that's the clarification.

只是一個澄清，然後是關於利潤的問題。但是湯姆，當你——就垂直尾翼問題和已安裝的機隊而言，我想你和馬克已經說過，你還沒有建立這種曝光？是因為沒有，還是我們還沒有到，檢查還沒有發生，你沒有辦法做到這一點。這就是澄清。

And then, Mark, since March '22, if we go back to the Investor Day back then, you talked about a 16.5% segment margin, free cash conversion is 7% to 9% of sales. When the 737 gets to 42, Tom, you just said you'll exit the year at that level, but a lot of things have changed since then, interest rates, higher inflation and now this new IAM deal that's $80 million more expensive. So when we bake all that in, how do we think about your margins factoring those various things in?

然後，馬克，自 22 年 3 月以來，如果我們回到當時的投資者日，您談到了 16.5% 的部門利潤率，自由現金轉換為銷售額的 7% 至 9%。當737 達到42 架時，湯姆，你剛剛說過你將以這個水平退出這一年，但從那時起很多事情都發生了變化，利率、更高的通貨膨脹以及現在這項新的IAM 交易貴了8000 萬美元。因此，當我們考慮所有這些因素時，我們如何考慮將這些不同因素考慮在內的利潤率？

Yes. So on the vertical fin, let me say it this way, so it's very clear. Based on the disposition as we understand it for the fleet, we do not expect that there will be any material financial impact to Spirit based on that disposition, okay. So we don't expect any material financial...

是的。那麼在垂直尾翼上，我這樣說一下，這樣就非常清楚了。根據我們對機隊的了解，我們預計該配置不會對精神號造成任何實質性的財務影響，好吧。所以我們預計不會有任何實質性的財務...

Because they don't need to...

因為他們不需要...

The way the disposition will work, we don't expect there to be a financial impact, a material financial impact for Spirit. And that disposition is still being finalized, but that is our understanding of it as of right now, and that's how we are communicating it.

就該處置的實施方式而言，我們預計不會對 Spirit 產生財務影響，即重大財務影響。該處置仍在最終確定中，但這是我們目前對此的理解，也是我們溝通的方式。

Okay. So with regard to the second part of your question, the 16.5% margins, 7% to 9% free cash flow conversion when we get to 42 aircraft per month. Obviously, those were made before this hyperinflationary environment, before our new labor contract, before a lot of schedule changes, before a lot of different expectations in terms of how we build the aircraft. And so what we would say now is, yes, there's more pressure. Once we get stabilized, we'll revisit and determine what those projections will be for the future. But obviously, right now, there's more pressure because those estimates were made before a lot of what we know today occurred.

好的。因此，關於你問題的第二部分，當我們達到每月 42 架飛機時，16.5% 的利潤率、7% 到 9% 的自由現金流轉換。顯然，這些都是在這種惡性通貨膨脹環境之前、在我們新的勞動合同之前、在很多時間表變化之前、在我們對如何製造飛機產生很多不同期望之前製定的。所以我們現在要說的是，是的，壓力更大。一旦我們穩定下來，我們將重新審視並確定這些對未來的預測。但顯然，現在壓力更大，因為這些估計是在我們今天所知的許多事情發生之前做出的。

Okay. And then just on the $80 million, what size business does that contemplate? Is that where you are now? Is that a cost when things stabilize, what production volume [that's like $80 million].

好的。那麼就 8000 萬美元而言，這涉及多大規模的業務？那是你現在所在的地方嗎？當情況穩定時，這是一個成本嗎？產量是多少[大約8000萬美元]。

It's based on what we are currently at and what we project over the next 4 years of the term of the contract.

它基於我們目前的狀況以及我們對未來 4 年合同期限的規劃。

Yes. So Rob, that -- it's an average. Obviously, it's a little lower today. We'll be hiring more people over the next couple of years as rates go up, but that is an average over the 4-year period. So a little lower today, higher in year 3, 4.

是的。羅布，這是一個平均值。顯然，今天的價格要低一些。隨著費率的上漲，我們將在未來幾年僱用更多的人，但這是 4 年期間的平均水平。所以今天稍微低一點，第三年、第四年更高。

Our next question comes from Sheila Kahyaoglu of Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

I just wanted to step back from the cash outflows today and maybe specifically focusing on the MAX contribution in '23, '24 and '25. Obviously, work stoppages, pauses and IAM agreements change the free cash flow profile of the MAX in '23. How do you think about that in '24 and '25 and how does the rate and inventory depletion progress?

我只是想從今天的現金流出中退一步，也許特別關注 23 年、24 年和 25 年的 MAX 貢獻。顯然，停工、暫停和 IAM 協議改變了 23 年 MAX 的自由現金流狀況。您如何看待 24 和 25 年的情況？比率和庫存消耗進展如何？

Sheila, I'll answer first and then let Mark provide a little bit of detail. But the first thing is, you're right, in '23, the work stoppage did impact us, and we lowered our guidance in terms of the deliveries for the MAX as a result.

希拉，我先回答，然後讓馬克提供一些細節。但首先，你是對的，在 23 年，停工確實對我們產生了影響，因此我們降低了 MAX 交付量的指導。

But the good news is that we do now have our contract in place with the IAM, and it's for 4 years, and we're satisfied with that. It's a very competitive contract and it reflects the gratitude that we have to our IAM colleagues for their contributions. So it impacted '23 but as we go into '24 and '25, we have stability now on that front and we will be able to execute on our rate increases and the rates that we expect to be delivering. And those will be higher.

但好消息是，我們現在與 IAM 簽訂了為期 4 年的合同，我們對此感到滿意。這是一份非常有競爭力的合同，它體現了我們對 IAM 同事所做貢獻的感激之情。所以它影響了'23，但當我們進入'24和'25時，我們現在在這方面已經穩定，我們將能夠執行我們的加息和我們預期提供的利率。這些將會更高。

So as I said, we are already moving to 42 aircraft per month in terms of what where we're cycling. We'll end the year at that and that will be the starting point for next year. And we do expect that we'll have at least 1 rate increase in 2024 as well over the 42. So if you lay that out, because the MAX is our biggest program, and deliveries are going to be going up is that will drive more free cash flow. And now we have a more stable environment with the contract in our rearview mirror.

正如我所說，就我們的騎行地點而言，我們已經將飛機數量增加到每月 42 架。我們將以此結束今年，這將是明年的起點。我們確實預計，到 2024 年，我們的利率將比 42 年至少增加 1 次。因此，如果你把這一點列出來，因為 MAX 是我們最大的計劃，交付量將會增加，這將推動更多自由現金流。現在我們有了一個更加穩定的環境，合同就在我們的後視鏡中。

Yes. Sheila, I think the thing that I would add is the quality issue, the vertical fin, the work stoppage, that caused significant disruption to us. Significant, right? And it was obviously not planned at the start of the year, much lower deliveries in the second quarter. We've had to add more people. We've -- we're taking deliveries out of the plan. It had serious impacts to the overall cash flow projection for the year.

是的。希拉，我想我要補充的是質量問題、垂直尾翼、停工，這些問題對我們造成了重大干擾。意義重大，對吧？這顯然不是年初的計劃，第二季度的交付量要低得多。我們不得不增加更多的人手。我們已經——我們正在取消計劃中的交付。這對本年度整體現金流預測產生了嚴重影響。

And as we move into 2024, we move past the work stoppage. We moved -- as Tom said, we moved past the quality issue. It's all about execution. It's about stabilizing supply chain and producing on time in our factories and meeting our delivery commitments on time, right? And so the positive cash flow is all 100% based on the further stabilization of supply chain and meeting our production commitments internally. And if we can go do that, we'll see a significant improvement in overall free cash flow and that's what we have to do. Operationally, we've got to execute. We've got to execute better, and that will lead with the higher production rates to much better profitability and cash flow.

當我們進入 2024 年時，我們已經超越了停工期。我們搬家了——正如湯姆所說，我們克服了質量問題。一切都與執行有關。這是為了穩定供應鏈並在我們的工廠按時生產並按時履行我們的交貨承諾，對嗎？所以正現金流都是100%基於供應鏈的進一步穩定和內部生產承諾的履行。如果我們能做到這一點，我們將看到整體自由現金流的顯著改善，這就是我們必須做的。從操作上來說，我們必須執行。我們必須更好地執行，這將帶來更高的生產率，從而帶來更好的盈利能力和現金流。

So how does that change just like your free cash flow margin per aircraft on the MAX? Like if it was close to 20% before, does it lower at 500 bps? So I'm thinking like instead of $1.2 million per MAX, you're down to $1 million with all these changes.

那麼，就像 MAX 每架飛機的自由現金流利潤率一樣，這種變化是如何變化的呢？就像之前接近20%一樣，現在會降低500個基點嗎？所以我想，通過所有這些變化，每個 MAX 的成本將不再是 120 萬美元，而是降至 100 萬美元。

Well, I'd say this, Sheila. I mean, we tried to be really, really granular as it relates to the IAM impact. And I would tell you, when you think about, as you just said, the cash per unit, the biggest driver as we look forward on the 737 is the impacts of the IAM contract. You know that it's over 50% of our revenues as a company but much higher than that as it relates to Wichita. And so I think that you can put some math to the negative impacts or the higher cost and the pressure that's going to put on our overall business and a big portion of that is going to hit the 737.

好吧，我會這麼說，希拉。我的意思是，我們試圖做到非常非常細緻，因為它涉及到 IAM 的影響。我想告訴你，正如你剛才所說，當你考慮每架飛機的現金時，我們對 737 的最大推動力是 IAM 合同的影響。您知道，它占我們公司收入的 50% 以上，但遠高於威奇託的收入。因此，我認為您可以對負面影響或更高的成本以及將給我們整體業務帶來的壓力進行一些數學計算，其中很大一部分將影響 737。

And Sheila, the way I would also say it is as we've said before, is you always have to run fast in this industry to stand still. We're always facing pressures. We knew the IAM contract was going to create additional financial pressure, and it did and we need to continue to work to mitigate that through our productivity initiatives.

希拉，我也想說，就像我們之前說過的那樣，在這個行業中，你總是必須跑得快才能站穩腳跟。我們總是面臨著壓力。我們知道 IAM 合同將造成額外的財務壓力，而且確實如此，我們需要繼續努力通過我們的生產力計劃來減輕這種壓力。

Our next question comes from Doug Harned of Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的道格·哈內德。

I wanted to go over to the wide-bodies. And when you look at the 787 and the A350 and can you tell us what the rates are you're at now? And when you look forward, you have Airbus standing by, producing 9 a month at the end of 2025, Boeing on the 787, 10 a month in 2025, '26. Where are you now? And how do you get to those high numbers?

我想轉向寬體飛機。當您查看 787 和 A350 時，您能告訴我們您現在的價格是多少嗎？當你展望未來時，空中客車公司將在 2025 年底每月生產 9 架飛機，波音公司的 787 飛機將在 2025 年每月生產 10 架，'26。你現在在哪裡？如何獲得如此高的數字？

Right. Well, as it sits right now, Doug, both on 87 and 350, we're really at about 5 per month right now in terms of what we're delivering at. And so as I mentioned in my remarks, we're going to deliver between 40 and 45 87s this year and about 60 or so A350s. But the rate right now on both programs is about 5.

正確的。好吧，Doug，就目前的情況來看，無論是 87 還是 350，我們現在的交付量實際上是每月 5 個左右。正如我在發言中提到的，我們今年將交付 40 至 45 架 87 和大約 60 架左右的 A350。但目前這兩個項目的利率都在 5 左右。

Now Boeing has said they're going to go up to high as 10 at the end of '24. And Airbus has said, I think high as 9 in 2025, which would include some freighters. And so the way we get up to those rates -- we have already the capital because we've been up as high as 14 on 787. Now there is some more pressure on the build process because things have changed, the fitting finish issue on 787 and the pull-up force, it has resulted in some change in the build process, which puts some pressure on it.

現在，波音公司表示，到 24 年底，他們的數量將增加到 10 個。空中客車公司表示，我認為 2025 年將達到 9 架，其中包括一些貨機。因此，我們達到這些利率的方式 - 我們已經有了資本，因為我們在 787 上的利率已高達 14。現在，由於情況發生了變化，構建過程面臨更大的壓力，裝配完成問題787和上拉力，它導致了構建過程中的一些變化，這給它帶來了一些壓力。

But we have a lot of the capital and tooling to get up to 14. And so it's really a question of adding the headcount and making sure we adjust and take into account some of the changes in the build process. And that's how it will happen on 787.

但我們有大量的資本和工具來增加到 14 人。因此，這實際上是一個增加員工人數並確保我們進行調整併考慮到構建過程中的一些變化的問題。這就是 787 上的情況。

On A350, we're capitalized for 13 aircraft per month, and we've been as high as 10. And so obviously, we're at a much lower rate right now. There's some differences there in terms of build process as well, but it's really a question of hiring the people in our Kinston plant and our Saint-Nazaire plant to increase the rates to what Airbus is expecting.

在 A350 上，我們每月資本化生產 13 架飛機，目前已高達 10 架。顯然，我們現在的資本化率要低得多。在建造過程方面也存在一些差異，但這實際上是一個僱用金斯頓工廠和聖納澤爾工廠的人員以將生產率提高到空中客車公司預期的問題。

The other thing I would say, though, is the freighter, which is in development right now is going to be a substantially different aircraft. I mean it's a derivative, but there's a lot of changes to it. And so that will also put a little bit of pressure on the system. And it's kind of a version of the 10. And so that creates another minor model mix, let's say, so some additional complexity. But the capital is in place to get up to rate 9 as Airbus is expecting, and we just need to start hiring the people at the right time period so that they're ready to meet those rate increases.

不過，我要說的另一件事是，目前正在開發的貨機將是一架截然不同的飛機。我的意思是它是一個衍生品，但有很多變化。所以這也會給系統帶來一點壓力。它是 10 的一個版本。因此，這創建了另一個較小的模型組合，可以說，所以有一些額外的複雜性。但正如空中客車公司所期望的那樣，資本已經到位，可以達到 9 級，我們只需要在正確的時間段開始僱用人員，以便他們準備好滿足這些利率的增長。

Well, should we expect and we shouldn't expect any additional capital investment requirements. But next year, just trying to dimension the pressure that this ramp-up from a staffing standpoint, what is that going to suggest in terms of just pressure on your margins and cash next year?

那麼，我們是否應該期待並且不應該期待任何額外的資本投資要求。但明年，從人員配置的角度來衡量這種增加的壓力，這對明年的利潤和現金壓力意味著什麼？

Yes. Well, since both of those programs are in forward loss, that's the normal type of pressure. We've built into our projections in the out years, the increase in head count to support higher rates, but you also get the benefit when you have higher rates, of course, of better fixed cost absorption. And so that will be an offsetting benefit.

是的。好吧，由於這兩個程序都處於前向損失狀態，所以這是正常的壓力類型。我們已經在未來幾年的預測中加入了員工數量的增加來支持更高的費率，但當你有更高的費率時，你也會得到好處，當然，更好的固定成本吸收。因此，這將是一個抵消性的好處。

But I'll just get back to what I said a little bit earlier, when Seth asked the question about the forward loss charges, is this is an industry-wide problem and in a kind of a very high demand environment, which also has supply constraints, it's important that all the suppliers are healthy and suppliers are incurring higher levels of cost on inflation and material as well as labor, logistics and utilities. And these do have to be addressed in the long term, and these are the conversations that we're having with our OEM partners.

但我要回到我之前所說的，當賽斯詢問有關遠期損失費用的問題時，這是一個全行業的問題嗎？在一種需求非常高的環境中，也有供應儘管受到限制，但重要的是所有供應商都保持健康，並且供應商在通貨膨脹和材料以及勞動力、物流和公用事業方面承擔了更高的成本。從長遠來看，這些問題確實必須得到解決，這些是我們正在與 OEM 合作夥伴進行的對話。

Next question comes from George Shapiro of Shapiro Research.

下一個問題來自夏皮羅研究中心的喬治·夏皮羅。

Mark, just a clarification. The $80 million you said was an average. I mean, if I look at the wage changes, they go up like 11% from '23 to '25. So I just assume that, that $80 million was really like a 2024 number, forgetting the people you got to hire. That was just kind of the average wage per individual, right?

馬克，只是澄清一下。你說的8000萬美元是平均水平。我的意思是，如果我看看工資變化，從 23 年到 25 年工資上漲了 11%。所以我只是假設，8000 萬美元真的就像 2024 年的數字，忘記了你必須僱用的人。這只是每個人的平均工資，對嗎？

Yes, it's about right, George.

是的，這是正確的，喬治。

Okay. And then one other quick clarification. What is different between the agreement you have on the advance from Boeing versus Airbus that lets Airbus be counted as free cash flow and Boeing is financing?

好的。然後是另一項快速澄清。你們就波音公司與空客公司的預付款達成的協議有什麼不同，該協議允許空客公司計入自由現金流，而波音公司則進行融資？

Sure, George. So the main fundamental difference between the $180 million advance from we got from Boeing and the $100 million from another customer is the Boeing Advance is paid to us. We've collected that money and we make a onetime payment to Boeing in the first quarter of 2024 of $90 million, just the payment to them like paying back a bank, and we do that in 2025. The other customer wanted its structure differently at the end of the day for their own reasons. And so we're paying that one back in a per shipset quantity in 2025.

當然，喬治。因此，我們從波音公司獲得的 1.8 億美元預付款與其他客戶的 1 億美元預付款之間的主要根本區別在於，波音預付款是支付給我們的。我們已經籌集到這筆錢，並在2024 年第一季度向波音一次性付款9000 萬美元，就像償還銀行一樣向他們付款，我們會在2025 年這樣做。另一個客戶希望其結構有所不同，由於自己的原因而結束了這一天。因此，我們將在 2025 年按每艘船的數量償還這筆費用。

So essentially, we're paying it back in 2025. So I think the other way you can look at it, it's a prepayment that we received $100 million against deliveries that we're making in 2025 and so from an ASC 606 accounting standpoint, that results in us -- that requires us to treat that as in cash from operations as an advance and so again, it's really more of a technical accounting item. It's -- at the end of the day, it's not operational, but technical accounting wise, it results in us having to have to treat it in 2023 as favorable to free cash flow and in '25, that will be a negative impact to free cash flow in 2025.

所以本質上，我們會在2025 年償還。所以我認為你可以從另一個角度來看，這是一筆預付款，我們在2025 年交付的貨物中收到了1 億美元，因此從ASC 606 會計的角度來看，這就要求我們將其視為來自運營的現金預付款，因此，這實際上更像是一個技術會計項目。歸根結底，它無法運行，但從技術會計角度來看，這導致我們必須在 2023 年將其視為有利於自由現金流，而在 25 年，這將對自由現金流產生負面影響2025年的現金流。

Our next question comes from Cai Von Rumohr of TD Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Cai Von Rumohr。

So 2 questions on cash flow. First, while the 737 build is a big plus, the 787, 350 and 220 are basically losers. So as those rates build, what is the incremental build in terms of the forward loss burn off. And then secondly, because you have the Boeing repayments are below the line, will you be able, over the period, '24 and '25 to reduce your debt?

所以有兩個關於現金流的問題。首先，雖然 737 機型是一大優勢，但 787、350 和 220 基本上都是失敗者。因此，隨著這些利率的增加，就遠期損失燃盡而言，增量是多少。其次，因為波音公司的還款額低於底線，你能否在“24”和“25”期間減少債務？

Yes. Well, let me just address the forward loss issue. As you said, on 737, the impact will be positive on 87 and 220. In terms of the forward loss, we've taken into account the projections in terms of the schedules going forward going up. So that has all been taking into account in terms of the forward loss. In terms of the Boeing payment being below the line, that is how it is. But what was the second part of your question then, Cai, the second part?

是的。好吧，讓我來談談前向損失問題。正如您所說，對於 737，對 87 和 220 的影響將會是積極的。就遠期損失而言，我們已經考慮了對未來航班時刻表的預測。因此，就遠期損失而言，這一切都已考慮在內。就波音的付款低於底線而言，就是這樣。但是蔡，你問題的第二部分是什麼？

Well, I mean, so with those 3 programs building, presumably the cash loss as you move forward, increase's. That's why you took the forward loss. And then you do have the Boeing payments and you have the cash payment to Airbus, at least the cash that you don't get. So over the 2-year period, will you be able to reduce your overall net debt.

嗯，我的意思是，隨著這 3 個項目的建立，隨著你的前進，現金損失可能會增加。這就是您承擔遠期損失的原因。然後你確實收到了波音公司的付款，也收到了支付給空中客車公司的現金，至少是你沒有收到的現金。因此，在兩年期間，您是否能夠減少總體淨債務。

Cai, let me jump in real quick. So I think first off, we do have loss-making programs. We talk about those. I would tell you that the amount of burn on those cash -- those forward loss programs in 2023 will be higher than '24, right? Even though we're going to produce more in '24. We started to ramp up on 787, we didn't restart production until August of last year. And we had a lot of units as we slowly started to go from 1 to 3 to 5, a lot of higher costs, way up on the learning curve, the build process changed. So we're seeing an abnormally high cost per unit build on 787 in 2023. And you're seeing some of that reflected in the additional forward losses that we booked in the first and second quarters.

蔡，讓我快點進去。所以我認為首先，我們確實有虧損的項目。我們談論這些。我想告訴你，這些現金的消耗量——2023 年的遠期損失計劃將高於 24 年，對吧？儘管我們將在 24 年生產更多產品。我們開始加大787的生產力度，直到去年8月才重新開始生產。當我們慢慢地開始從 1 到 3 到 5 時，我們有很多單元，成本上升了很多，學習曲線上也隨之上升，構建過程也發生了變化。因此，我們看到 2023 年 787 的每架飛機成本異常高。您會看到其中一些反映在我們在第一季度和第二季度預訂的額外遠期損失中。

Very similar on A350 as we recovered the production plan from an overstaffing standpoint to recover that expedited boats that is all putting additional pressure on what I would call cash per unit on the loss-making programs in 2023. And then as we move into 2024, what should happen is we're moving down. We've got more stability in those factories. The higher rates will help us absorb more fixed costs. Some of the pressure that we saw in 2023 will abate as we move in 2024. There are still loss-making programs. A220 goes up in rate, a nice little tick-up in 2024, which will help. So I would say when you think about cash between '23 and '24, yes, there's cash consumption on the loss-making contracts in '23, and there will be on 2024. But I would tell you, based on our -- what we believe today, it will be less impactful in '24 than '23.

A350 非常相似，因為我們從人員過剩的角度恢復了生產計劃，以恢復快速船隻，這都給 2023 年虧損項目的單位現金帶來了額外的壓力。然後，當我們進入 2024 年時，應該發生的事情是我們正在向下移動。我們在這些工廠裡更加穩定。較高的利率將幫助我們吸收更多的固定成本。隨著我們進入 2024 年，我們在 2023 年看到的一些壓力將會減輕。仍然有虧損的項目。 A220 的價格上漲，2024 年會有一個不錯的小幅上漲，這會有所幫助。所以我想說，當你考慮 23 到 24 年間的現金時，是的，23 年虧損合同上有現金消耗，2024 年也會有。但我會告訴你，基於我們的——什麼我們相信今天，它在24 年的影響力將不如23 年。

And so when you think about cash flow over the next couple of years, obviously, the issues around the quality issue and the strike has moved the cash flow generation a bit to the right. And therefore, we won't be able to generate significant cash flow in '24 and '25. There will be some cash that we're able to generate, which we'll use to pay down debt as best we can as we move through that.

因此，當你考慮未來幾年的現金流時，顯然，圍繞質量問題和罷工的問題使現金流的產生稍微向右移動。因此，我們將無法在 24 年和 25 年產生大量現金流。我們將能夠產生一些現金，在我們渡過難關的過程中，我們將用這些現金盡可能地償還債務。

And so really, that's the game plan. I think more burn on the forward loss this year, a little bit less next year. And as we move into '24 and '25, and we move the cash flow positive, we will use that cash flow to pay down debt, and that's part of -- that's overall when we think about our overall financing strategy and liquidity strategy on how we're addressing our debt and our cash balances.

確實，這就是遊戲計劃。我認為今年的遠期損失會更多，明年會少一些。當我們進入“24”和“25”時，我們將現金流轉為正值，我們將利用該現金流來償還債務，這是我們考慮整體融資策略和流動性策略時的一部分。我們如何解決我們的債務和現金餘額。

Yes. And Cai, what I would say about that is we will use the excess cash in '24 and '25 to start to pay down debt. But we have a big chunk that's due in April of 2025. We are not going to be able to generate enough cash to pay all of that off. So we are going to start to look at some refinancing options, and we'll consider all different types of options, as Mark said in his comments, as we look to refinance that 2025 debt.

是的。蔡，我想說的是，我們將在 24 年和 25 年使用多餘的現金來開始償還債務。但我們有一大筆資金將於 2025 年 4 月到期。我們將無法產生足夠的現金來償還所有這些資金。因此，我們將開始考慮一些再融資選擇，正如馬克在評論中所說，我們將考慮所有不同類型的選擇，因為我們希望為 2025 年債務進行再融資。

Very helpful. You mentioned price hikes. One of the messages from Paris was that pretty much everyone is asking for and most people are getting price hikes. Do your forecast and your comments assume any price hikes?

很有幫助。你提到了漲價。來自巴黎的信息之一是，幾乎每個人都在要求，而且大多數人都得到了價格上漲。您的預測和評論是否假設價格會上漲？

No, they do not. Not at this time.

不，他們沒有。目前還不行。

Our next question comes from Kristine Liwag of Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的克里斯汀·利瓦格。

So in terms of follow-up to question earlier, I mean aerospace is still largely duopoly and therefore, both Boeing and Airbus are important customers. But you've got programs like the 787 and the A350 that have been negative free cash flow for over a decade now, and you've got additional pressures for the A220 and even defense.

因此，就之前問題的後續行動而言，我的意思是航空航天業在很大程度上仍然是雙頭壟斷，因此波音和空客都是重要客戶。但像 787 和 A350 這樣的項目十多年來自由現金流一直為負，而且 A220 甚至國防也面臨著額外的壓力。

With costs continue to increase with labor and supply chain still kind of fragile in some spots, I mean, more pain seems to be unsustainable. At what point do you go back to the customer, I mean despite their importance and renegotiate pricing? And if they're not willing to negotiate, like what's your walkaway point of returning some of these programs back to your customers?

我的意思是，隨著成本持續增加，勞動力和供應鏈在某些地方仍然脆弱，更多的痛苦似乎是不可持續的。我的意思是，儘管他們很重要，但你什麼時候會回到客戶那裡並重新協商定價？如果他們不願意談判，那麼您將其中一些項目退還給客戶的方法是什麼？

Well, Kristine, you raised very good points. And it's a situation that exists both on the commercial side and on the defense side with the large primes is the impact of inflation especially when you have a fixed-price contract has an impact. And as I said, it's a broader industry issue in terms of the fact that there's a huge demand out there right now as their traffic recovers, but there's all these supply constraints and there's pressures on the supply chain in terms of inflation in material and labor, logistics and utilities, new build processes, fluctuating schedules.

嗯，克里斯汀，你提出了很好的觀點。這種情況在商業方面和國防方面都存在，大質數是通貨膨脹的影響，特別是當固定價格合同產生影響時。正如我所說，這是一個更廣泛的行業問題，因為隨著流量的恢復，目前存在巨大的需求，但存在所有這些供應限制，並且供應鏈在材料和勞動力通脹方面面臨壓力、物流和公用事業、新建流程、不斷變化的時間表。

And so I would say the -- the issue is we are under contract, and we are going to meet our contractual commitments to our customers. But really, the OEMs and the U.S. government from a defense standpoint, do have to recognize the environment has changed and it's a highly inflationary environment. And these are very important conversations that we have to have with our customers.

所以我想說的是——問題是我們簽訂了合同，我們將履行對客戶的合同承諾。但實際上，從國防的角度來看，原始設備製造商和美國政府確實必須認識到環境已經發生變化，這是一個高度通貨膨脹的環境。這些是我們必須與客戶進行的非常重要的對話。

And in terms of getting some of that pricing alleviation, I mean we're hearing from your peers they're getting better pricing and attrition or even the challenges in supply chain. Is there something different specifically with your long-term agreement to make it more difficult for you to get that pricing increase?

就獲得部分定價緩解而言，我的意思是我們從同行那裡聽到他們正在獲得更好的定價和人員流失，甚至供應鏈方面的挑戰。您的長期協議是否有什麼特別的不同之處，使您更難獲得漲價？

Well, our long-term agreements are typical, I would say, the industry, their requirements contracts. We are fortunate that we have these contracts that our life of program, usually sole source. And these are extremely unique contracts and they're on all the best programs. I mean if you look at the 737, we make 70% of the structure on the 737 for Boeing, including the entire fuselage. On the 320, we make about 60% of the structure for the wing with Airbus. We have a huge work package on the A350 with the center fuselage and the fixed leading edge. And on the 220, we make 3 sections of the center fuselage, the entire wing, including all the systems, and we make the [fuselage].

嗯，我想說，我們的長期協議是典型的行業及其要求合同。我們很幸運，我們擁有這些合同，這些合同是我們項目生命週期的唯一來源。這些都是非常獨特的合同，而且它們都屬於最好的項目。我的意思是，如果你看看 737，就會發現 737 70% 的結構是我們為波音製造的，包括整個機身。在 320 上，我們約 60% 的機翼結構是與空中客車公司合作製造的。我們在 A350 上有一個巨大的工作包，包括中央機身和固定前緣。在 220 上，我們製造了中央機身的 3 個部分，整個機翼，包括所有系統，我們製造了[機身]。

So when you think about the industry and narrow-body aircraft being so important, we have the biggest work packages by far on the narrow-body programs. It's 85% of our backlog. So we feel very fortunate that we have those positions on those contracts. Yes, so that there has been a big change in the environment with inflation both in material and labor, utilities and logistics, different build processes, different rates that are still lower than we were overall back in 2019. And so those are realities and the OEMs are fully aware of it. And as I said, these are discussions that we need to be having with the OEMs at this time.

因此，當你想到這個行業和窄體飛機如此重要時，我們在窄體項目上擁有迄今為止最大的工作包。這是我們積壓訂單的 85%。因此，我們感到非常幸運，我們在這些合同上擁有這些頭寸。是的，因此環境發生了巨大變化，材料和勞動力、公用事業和物流方面的通貨膨脹、不同的建造流程、不同的利率仍然低於 2019 年的總體水平。所以這些都是現實， OEM 廠商對此有著充分的認識。正如我所說，這些是我們此時需要與原始設備製造商進行的討論。

Our next question comes from Michael Ciarmoli of Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Michael Ciarmoli。

I guess just staying on Kristine's point, with these contracts? I mean you're boasting you're on the best programs, but seemingly, you're just not getting compensated or paid for the value you're providing. And I guess, you're saying some of these things have to be addressed. How receptive are Boeing and Airbus, their sense of urgency. I mean do you think you can get something changed here in the shorter term to capture some pricing. And then I guess maybe even you still have, I guess, the price step-downs as you go up in volumes. I mean, is that something that you're looking very closely at.

我想只是停留在克里斯汀的觀點上，通過這些合同？我的意思是，你吹噓自己參加了最好的項目，但看起來，你只是沒有因為你提供的價值而得到補償或報酬。我想，你是說其中一些問題必須得到解決。波音和空客的接受程度如何，他們的緊迫感如何。我的意思是，你認為你可以在短期內做出一些改變來獲得一些定價嗎？然後我想，隨著銷量的增加，價格可能還會下降。我的意思是，這是你正在密切關注的事情嗎？

I think if you can remind us, I think 42 was sort of the optimal rate for the 737, but once you go above that, you're going to start getting price step down. It just seems like you're getting squeezed from all sides here. And maybe there should be more urgency and I get it running fast to stay still, but that doesn't really sound like a good proposition for shareholders.

我想如果你能提醒我們的話，我認為 42 是 737 的最佳價格，但一旦你超過這個價格，你就會開始降低價格。看起來你似乎受到了來自四面八方的擠壓。也許應該有更多的緊迫感，我讓它快速運行以保持靜止，但這對股東來說聽起來並不是一個好的建議。

It's a challenging environment, and I think we all recognize that. It's much more inflationary in material. And with these new labor contracts, now you see that in labor as well. And as I've said, it's an industry-wide problem because demand is clearly there. The orders are coming in, production rates are going up, but all suppliers are facing challenges with these higher level of costs. And so it's an important systemic issue that the OEMs do need to address. And it's important that we have these conversations with them. And I can't put any sort of time frame on it. Discussions like these are always difficult and challenging. But it's something that we are prepared to have for the reasons that you just outlined.

這是一個充滿挑戰的環境，我想我們都認識到這一點。物質方面的通貨膨脹要嚴重得多。有了這些新的勞動合同，現在你也可以在勞動中看到這一點。正如我所說，這是一個全行業的問題，因為需求顯然是存在的。訂單不斷湧入，生產率不斷提高，但所有供應商都面臨著成本上升的挑戰。因此，這是原始設備製造商確實需要解決的一個重要的系統性問題。我們與他們進行這些對話很重要。我無法給它設定任何時間框架。諸如此類的討論總是困難且具有挑戰性的。但出於您剛才概述的原因，我們已經做好了準備。

Yes, Michael, I would just add to just try to be clear, there is a sense of urgency by the management team here, okay? We hear you. We understand. We've got a lot of work to do on this end.

是的，邁克爾，我想補充一點，就是想澄清一下，這裡的管理團隊有一種緊迫感，好嗎？我們聽到你的聲音。我們明白。為此我們還有很多工作要做。

Our next question comes from Ron Epstein of Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的羅恩·愛潑斯坦。

Maybe the elephant in the room, I'll just bring it up. People have been sort of beating around it. Is there a fundamental change that you have to make in Spirits business to make it less volatile and just more predictable because it always seems like you guys end up on the tail of the whip, A220, A320, 737, they're great programs like Michael said, but they don't seem to be helping you right now, although they're helping the OEMs.

也許房間裡的大象，我會提出來。人們一直在圍繞它進行討論。您是否必須在烈酒業務中做出根本性的改變，以使其波動性更小，並且更可預測，因為看起來你們總是處於鞭子的尾巴上，A220、A320、737，它們都是很棒的計劃，例如邁克爾說，但他們現在似乎並沒有在幫助你，儘管他們正在幫助原始設備製造商。

You must, I mean, if you can give us some feeling for how you're thinking about strategy and how you could change Spirit to make it a more -- I don't want to say viable, but less volatile business that the public markets could view easier, right? Because things swinging all over the place. It seems like you guys always end up with the short end of the stick, and that just doesn't seem fair.

我的意思是，如果你能讓我們了解你是如何思考戰略的，以及如何改變Spirit 使其成為一個更加——我不想說是可行的，但波動性較小的業務，那麼你必須讓我們了解一下。市場可以更容易地看待，對嗎？因為事情到處搖擺。看來你們總是吃虧，這似乎不公平。

So as I said, it's a challenging environment right now. And on our narrow-body contracts, we have sole-source life of program and we have great work packages. And those rates are going up. The challenge has really been on some of the wider body contracts and more of the composite programs. So if you look at the 3 programs that are in forward loss, the 87, the 350 and the 220, those are all composite programs, and that has been more challenging. We've not come down the learning curve as fast as we all thought we would when they first started. And so we do need to have the conversations about how we address that given the inflationary environment that we're in.

正如我所說，現在的環境充滿挑戰。在我們的窄體合同中，我們擁有獨家的項目壽命，並且我們有很棒的工作包。而且這些利率正在上升。挑戰實際上在於一些更廣泛的車身合同和更多的複合項目。因此，如果你看看 87、350 和 220 這 3 個正向損失的程序，這些都是複合程序，這更具挑戰性。我們的學習曲線並沒有像他們剛開始時想像的那麼快。因此，考慮到我們所處的通脹環境，我們確實需要就如何解決這個問題進行對話。

But let me see, you said, what can we do to improve and change fundamental changes in Spirit. A lot of it is in our production system. And these are investments we've been making over the last 3, 4 years during the pandemic to improve the flow of our factories, improve digitization and automation and robotics and drive quality in a much more fundamental way. And those are going to start to pay dividends as we go up in rate. So you will see that. The other broader thing, I would say, you said about strategy is when we went into the pandemic, we were too concentrated.

但你說，讓我看看我們能做些什麼來改善和改變精神的根本變化。其中很多都在我們的生產系統中。這些是我們在過去三四年的大流行期間進行的投資，旨在改善工廠的流程，改進數字化、自動化和機器人技術，並以更根本的方式提高質量。隨著利率的上升，這些將開始帶來紅利。所以你會看到這一點。我想說，你所說的關於戰略的另一個更廣泛的事情是，當我們陷入大流行時，我們過於集中。

We were 95% commercial. We were 98% original equipment. We were about 75% Boeing and 50% of our revenue came from MAX. We were too concentrated. And so we've made a concerted effort over the last 4 years, including during the pandemic, to start to diversify. And that diversification, a big part of it was the acquisition we made from Bombardier in Belfast, Morocco and Dallas to give us more Airbus content, to give us twice as much aftermarket and 4x as much business yet.

我們95%是商業化的。我們98%都是原裝設備。我們大約 75% 是波音公司，我們 50% 的收入來自 MAX。我們太集中了。因此，我們在過去四年中，包括在大流行期間，共同努力開始多元化。這種多元化，其中很大一部分是我們從貝爾法斯特、摩洛哥和達拉斯的龐巴迪公司進行的收購，為我們提供了更多的空客內容，為我們提供了兩倍的售後市場和四倍的業務。

And so the diversification will start to pay dividends over time. As we've said, we want to be $1 billion in defense by 2025. We want to be $500 million in aftermarket by 2025. And so those are some of the things that we're doing to fundamentally change Spirit is improving the factory and delivering productivity through all of the different advanced manufacturing initiatives I said, having discussions with the OEMs about the composite programs and the material system and the challenges that we've incurred over time and then continuing the diversification of Spirit so that we're less concentrated in the future with a broader exposure to Defense & Space as well as aftermarket.

因此，隨著時間的推移，多元化將開始帶來紅利。正如我們所說，我們希望到2025 年在國防領域的投資達到10 億美元。我們希望到2025 年在售後市場的投資達到5 億美元。因此，這些是我們正在做的一些事情，以從根本上改變精神正在改善工廠和通過我所說的所有不同的先進製造計劃來提高生產力，與原始設備製造商討論複合材料項目和材料系統以及我們隨著時間的推移所遇到的挑戰，然後繼續Spirit 的多元化，以便我們不那麼集中未來將更廣泛地涉足國防與航天以及售後市場。

And I mean, if I may, as a follow-on. When we look at Belfast, specifically, has that created any value, I mean to this point? And when would you expect it to do so?

我的意思是，如果可以的話，作為後續。當我們具體看看貝爾法斯特時，我的意思是，這是否創造了任何價值？您預計什麼時候會這樣做？

It's where we expected it to be. Rates are a little bit lower, and that's driven some of the forward losses. But when we did the program, we knew it was going to be a challenge. We took a purchase accounting charge of about $375 million through 2025. And we expected that the rates would get up to 14 or 15 by the middle of 2025. Now that could get pushed out, but that's still what Airbus is saying. The A220, we think, is a great program. It is 100 and the 300 right now take it from about 100 passengers up to 150 passengers.

這正是我們所期望的。利率稍微低一點，這導致了一些遠期損失。但當我們執行該計劃時，我們知道這將是一個挑戰。到 2025 年，我們的採購會計費用約為 3.75 億美元。我們預計到 2025 年中期，費率將達到 14 或 15。現在這可能會被推遲，但這仍然是空客所說的。我們認為 A220 是一個很棒的計劃。現在是 100 座，而現在的 300 座可以容納大約 100 名乘客到 150 名乘客。

It's got a brand-new engine and a geared turbo fan. It's a lightweight fuselage, and it's a fully composite wing, all of which we make. And so it is a very efficient aircraft. The airlines do like it. I know it's had some operational challenges, which they're working through and they'll get that right. But it's a great program. And someday, they might extend it up to 500, which would take it up to 170 passengers, which would increase the rate even further.

它有一個全新的發動機和一個齒輪渦輪風扇。它是一個輕質機身，也是一個全複合材料機翼，所有這些都是我們製造的。因此它是一架非常高效的飛機。航空公司確實喜歡它。我知道它遇到了一些運營挑戰，他們正在解決這些挑戰，並且他們會解決這個問題。但這是一個很棒的計劃。有一天，他們可能會將載客量擴展到 500 人，這樣乘客數量就會增加到 170 人，這將進一步提高費率。

So we made a big bet on the A220 program. We're happy with that bet. We think it's a great strategic program. It's taking a little bit longer to realize. But in the long term, it was a good strategic move. We're happy we did it. It's going to help diversify Spirit because in addition to the A220 program that we got out of Belfast, we also doubled our aftermarket, and we got 4x the amount of business jet work. So we think it was a good deal and it will pay off in the long term.

所以我們對A220項目下了很大的賭注。我們對這個賭注很滿意。我們認為這是一個偉大的戰略計劃。需要更長的時間才能意識到。但從長遠來看，這是一個很好的戰略舉措。我們很高興我們做到了。這將有助於精神航空的多元化，因為除了我們從貝爾法斯特獲得的 A220 項目之外，我們的售後市場也擴大了一倍，公務機工作量也增加了 4 倍。所以我們認為這是一筆很好的交易，從長遠來看會得到回報。

Our final question comes from Peter Arment of Baird.

我們的最後一個問題來自貝爾德 (Baird) 的彼得·阿門特 (Peter Arment)。

Mark, maybe I'll just try to end on a positive note, aftermarket mix or the margins where it was very strong this quarter. Just any one time to call out? Or was it just mix and how sustainable is it?

馬克，也許我會嘗試以積極的態度結束，售後市場組合或本季度非常強勁的利潤率。只要有時間就可以打電話嗎？或者只是混合，它的可持續性如何？

Thanks, Peter, and good to hear from you. We're really happy with aftermarket. It continues to grow. It's hitting our revenue targets for the year. It's performing from an operational delivery performance margin perspective and we've talked about it being a 20-plus percent margin business. There are a couple of small things that happened in the second quarter that won't repeat when we think about the third and fourth quarter. But the team is executing. I want to congratulate our aftermarket team. They're hitting their big revenue goals for the year. They're performing well for the customers. We continue to grow geographically and expand our portfolio. And so we're really pleased with that.

謝謝，彼得，很高興收到你的來信。我們對售後市場非常滿意。它繼續增長。它達到了我們今年的收入目標。從運營交付績效利潤率的角度來看，它的表現良好，我們已經討論過它是一項利潤率超過 20% 的業務。第二季度發生的一些小事情在我們考慮第三和第四季度時不會重複。但團隊正在執行。我要祝賀我們的售後團隊。他們正在實現今年的大收入目標。他們為客戶表現良好。我們繼續擴大地域範圍並擴大我們的產品組合。所以我們對此非常滿意。

And as we move through the balance of the year, we're going to continue to drive execution and hit the 20-plus percent margins. And as Tom talked about, we're right on track, $500 million, 20-plus percent margins. And although it doesn't seem as large as our commercial business, it's going to be a nice contributor as we grow over the next couple of years. So Peter, I appreciate you asking the question. We're happy with the team. We're hitting the marks, and we are very, very focused on continuing growing that business and making sure that it produces accretive margins.

隨著今年剩下的時間，我們將繼續推動執行力並達到 20% 以上的利潤率。正如 Tom 所說，我們正走在正軌上，5 億美元，20% 以上的利潤率。雖然它看起來不像我們的商業業務那麼大，但隨著我們未來幾年的發展，它將成為一個很好的貢獻者。彼得，我很感謝你提出這個問題。我們對團隊很滿意。我們正在達到目標，我們非常非常專注於繼續發展該業務並確保其產生增值的利潤。

We have no further questions on the line. With that, this concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.

我們沒有其他問題了。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的加入。您現在可以斷開連接。