Spirit AeroSystems Holdings Inc (SPR) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Rica, and I will be your coordinator today. (Operator Instructions) And I now would like to hand the presentation over to Ryan Avey, Senior Director, of Investor Relations and FP&A. Please go ahead.

早安，女士們、先生們，歡迎參加 Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. 2023 年第四季和全年收益電話會議。我叫 Rica，今天我將擔任你們的協調員。 （操作員說明）現在我想將簡報交給投資者關係和 FP&A 高級總監 Ryan Avey。請繼續。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. I'm Ryan Avey, and with me today are Spirit's President and Chief Executive Officer, Pat Shanahan and Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Mark Suchinski. Before we begin, I need to remind you that any projections or goals we may include in our discussion today are likely to involve risks, including those detailed in our earnings release, in our SEC filings and in the forward-looking statement at the end of this web presentation.

謝謝大家，大家早安。我是 Ryan Avey，今天與我在一起的有 Spirit 總裁兼執行長 Pat Shanahan 和資深副總裁兼財務長 Mark Suchinski。在我們開始之前，我需要提醒您，我們今天討論中可能包含的任何預測或目標都可能涉及風險，包括我們的收益報告、美國證券交易委員會文件以及年底的前瞻性聲明中詳細說明的風險。這個網路演示。

In addition, we refer you to our earnings release and presentation for disclosures and reconciliation of non-GAAP measures we use when discussing our results. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Pat.

此外，我們建議您參閱我們的收益發布和演示文稿，以了解我們在討論結果時使用的非公認會計準則衡量標準的揭露和調節。有了這個，我想把電話轉給帕特。

Thank you, Ryan, and good morning, everyone. Today, I will update you on how we are running the business at Spirit. Most of my remarks will focus on the steps we took after the January 5th accident. Mark will address the financials in his comments. My mandate when I came here was to put our operations and financials back on solid footing. In my estimation, we achieved significant progress toward that goal in the fourth quarter. However, the accident on January 5th demanded a different focus by our team.

謝謝瑞安，大家早安。今天，我將向您介紹 Spirit 的業務運作。我的大部分演講將集中在 1 月 5 日事故發生後我們採取的措施。馬克將在評論中談到財務狀況。當我來到這裡時，我的任務是讓我們的營運和財務重新建立穩固的基礎。據我估計，我們在第四季度朝著這一目標取得了重大進展。然而，1 月 5 日發生的事故要求我們團隊改變焦點。

Consistent with our protocols, our response team was activated within hours. Since that moment, Spirit's focus was on supporting Boeing, it's airline customers, the NTSB, the FAA and our people. The immediate response was taking a hard look at our processes and incorporating any findings into action. Within days, we enacted countermeasures to include adding in-line and ship in place inspections with Boeing that replicated those performed by the airlines to return to service, leveraging the FAA's safety management system to conduct a product safety risk assessment.

根據我們的協議，我們的回應團隊在幾個小時內就啟動了。從那時起，Spirit 的重點就是支持波音公司、其航空公司客戶、NTSB、FAA 和我們的員工。我們立即做出的反應是認真審視我們的流程，並將任何發現納入行動中。幾天之內，我們制定了對策，包括與波音公司一起增加線上和就地檢查，複製航空公司為恢復服務而執行的檢查，利用美國聯邦航空局的安全管理系統進行產品安全風險評估。

Incorporation of detailed review and observation with Boeing of the mid-entry door plug assembly and installation process to include both Spirit and Boeing operations. Concurrent with those immediate actions, we have initiated a second wave of actions centered on addressing human factors, nonconformities, product safety, and expanded inspections across 737 manufacturing. People are at the heart of the company and our manufacturing processes. A significant portion of the 737 fuselage build is manually performed by our skilled teammates.

與波音公司一起對中入口門塞組裝和安裝過程進行詳細審查和觀察，包括 Spirit 和波音公司的營運。在採取這些立即行動的同時，我們也啟動了第二波行動，重點是解決人為因素、不合格問題、產品安全以及擴大 737 製造過程中的檢查範圍。人是公司和製造流程的核心。 737 機身建造的很大一部分是由我們熟練的團隊成員手動完成的。

Repeatability, reliability and capability in manufacturing is required to produce high-quality conforming products. The human condition and human factors must be accounted for in any improvement efforts. And through that lens, we are focusing additional actions. The four main levers to mitigate human factors that we are pulling include proficiency of our mechanics and inspectors, compliance to our quality management system, mistake proofing and observation.

生產高品質的合格產品需要重複性、可靠性和製造能力。在任何改進工作中都必須考慮人的狀況和人為因素。透過這個鏡頭，我們正在關注更多的行動。我們採取的減輕人為因素的四個主要手段包括我們的機械師和檢查員的熟練程度、遵守我們的品質管理系統、防錯和觀察。

We will do more testing and training. We will drive greater discipline to the QMS. We will enable our teammates with better tools, techniques and technology that is available today. The goal of any world-class manufacturing company is perfection or 0 defects. We aspire to achieve perfection. Detecting, correcting and ultimately propending defects otherwise known as nonconformities is the basis for continuous improvement.

我們將做更多的測試和培訓。我們將推動品質管理系統更加嚴格。我們將為我們的隊友提供當今可用的更好的工具、技術和技術。任何世界級製造公司的目標都是完美或零缺陷。我們渴望達到完美。檢測、修正並最終解決缺陷（也稱為不合格）是持續改善的基礎。

We are expanding our efforts to integrate more with Boeing's QMS realigning organizationally to accelerate redesign and process reengineering and utilizing more advanced data analytics. We are also increasing the number of spirit performed inspections and Boeing performed inspections. And soon, we will integrate these efforts with those with the FAA and customers who have joined us here in Wichita.

我們正在加強努力，與波音的品質管理系統進行更多整合，進行組織重組，以加速重新設計和流程再造，並利用更先進的數據分析。我們還增加了烈酒檢查和波音檢查的數量。很快，我們將把這些努力與美國聯邦航空局的工作以及在威奇託加入我們的客戶整合起來。

That is a brief summary of some of the systemic improvements in our second wave of collective actions. There are additional actions we are taking as well. The point is we are mobilized for implementation with detailed plans and fully aligned with Boeing. Our next wave of improvement will be the deployment of autonomation and automation for sections of the airplane that remain highly manual. That is the fundamental solution to zero defects and zero escapes.

這是我們第二波集體行動中一些系統性改進的簡要總結。我們還在採取其他行動。關鍵是我們已動員起來實施詳細計劃並與波音公司完全一致。我們的下一波改進將是在飛機上仍然高度手動的部分部署自動化和自動化。這是零缺陷、零逃逸的根本解決方案。

On the 737 fuselage, the front and back sections have the most complex physical geometries and are the most confined workspaces. The build is largely manual. Our eye is towards finding the right balance of using human-assisted technology and automated technology. There is a path to deployment. Broadly speaking, full-scale robotics is impractical. In our research labs, we have significant human-assisted technology that is manufacturing readiness level 6 that we look to accelerate. I have recently reviewed this technology with the team and will ensure it receives the appropriate resources and investments. I am very proud of how our team has responded to this accident. They have been calm, focused and moving with urgency. I have a lot of confidence in this team.

在 737 機身上，前部和後部具有最複雜的物理幾何形狀，也是最狹窄的工作空間。構建主要是手動的。我們的目標是找到使用人工輔助技術和自動化技術的正確平衡。有一條部署路徑。從廣義上講，全尺寸機器人技術是不切實際的。在我們的研究實驗室中，我們擁有重要的人工輔助技術，該技術已達到 6 級製造準備水平，我們希望加速這項技術的發展。我最近與團隊一起審查了這項技術，並將確保它獲得適當的資源和投資。我對我們團隊對這次事故的反應感到非常自豪。他們冷靜、專注、緊迫。我對這支球隊充滿信心。

At this point, the art form is to integrate broad actions with our ongoing operations and not as a one-off project. Our teams across manufacturing and engineering are fully aligned and will implement changes seamlessly. I believe we will move quickly because of our shift in governance away from being top down. The mindset shift is to understand that the airplane is the boss. The airplane tells us what to do. Our mechanics, sealers, engineers and inspectors are like surgeons. They tell us in management what they need to perform their operations.

在這一點上，藝術形式是將廣泛的行動與我們正在進行的運營相結合，而不是作為一次性項目。我們的製造和工程團隊完全協調一致，將無縫實施變革。我相信我們會迅速採取行動，因為我們的治理方式不再是自上而下的。心態的轉變是要明白飛機才是老大。飛機告訴我們該做什麼。我們的機械師、密封工、工程師和檢查員就像外科醫生。他們告訴我們管理階層他們需要什麼來執行他們的業務。

Our goal is to give them what they need, when they need it and resolve issues or make improvements. Receptivity from our teammates across our facilities, shop floors and offices have been positive. I also appreciate their candor and telling me what's on their minds. I've heard from every corner of the factory in Wichita and from every shift, lots of energy, lots of ideas. This does not surprise me. Our workforce at Spirit has a clear understanding of the importance of their work.

我們的目標是在他們需要時為他們提供所需的東西並解決問題或進行改進。我們的設施、工作坊和辦公室的隊友的接受度都很積極。我也很欣賞他們的坦誠並告訴我他們的想法。我從威奇托工廠的每個角落和每個班次都聽到了很多精力和想法。這並不令我感到驚訝。 Spirit 的員工清楚地了解他們工作的重要性。

That commitment is rooted in a long legacy we have in this industry. In the coming weeks, we will learn more from the regulators from their formal reporting and will respond with urgency and transparency. Now I'll shift to a couple of other topics I think you have on your mind as well. First, we made significant progress in the fourth quarter in stabilizing the 737 production line. We briefly paused the line to stabilize, which ultimately allowed us to deliver 104 fuselages, the highest quarterly total in 4 years.

這項承諾植根於我們在這個行業的悠久傳統。在接下來的幾週內，我們將從監管機構的正式報告中了解更多信息，並將以緊迫和透明的方式回應。現在我將轉向其他幾個我認為您也關心的主題。首先，第四季我們在穩定737生產線方面取得了重大進展。我們短暫暫停了生產線以求穩定，最終我們交付了 104 架機身，這是 4 年來最高的季度總數。

We made investments during the quarter to recover schedule and buffer the production system which enabled us to start the year with a balanced factory. Second, we recognized additional forward losses on the A350 and A220 programs this quarter, which Mark will address in a moment. That said, we are working to not only improve these programs in our day-to-day operations, but also are engaged in discussions with Airbus to address the long-term financials.

我們在本季度進行了投資，以恢復進度並緩衝生產系統，這使我們能夠以平衡的工廠開始新的一年。其次，我們認識到本季 A350 和 A220 項目的額外遠期損失，馬克稍後將解決這個問題。也就是說，我們不僅致力於在日常營運中改進這些計劃，而且還與空中巴士公司進行討論，以解決長期財務問題。

The negotiations with Airbus continue and have been productive. We hope to conclude by February, but we need to ensure all items are addressed. We are converging on operational and financial solutions. I appreciate the partnership and engagement by their leadership. This remains an important near-term priority for me. I'll now turn the call over to Mark to review with you our financial results.

與空中巴士公司的談判仍在繼續，並且富有成效。我們希望在二月結束，但我們需要確保所有問題都得到解決。我們正在致力於營運和財務解決方案。我感謝他們領導階層的合作與參與。這對我來說仍然是一個重要的近期優先事項。我現在將電話轉給馬克，與您一起審查我們的財務表現。

Thanks, Pat, and good morning, everyone. We experienced significant pressures in 2023 due to production schedule volatility, supply chain constraints and ongoing inflation. Quality challenges and increased labor costs. This resulted in higher-than-anticipated costs throughout the year. However, we also accomplished some major milestones during the year including reaching a contractual resolution with our largest union, bringing, Pat on board to lead spirits recovery and executing a favorable agreement with our largest customer.

謝謝帕特，大家早安。由於生產計劃波動、供應鏈限制和持續的通貨膨脹，我們在 2023 年經歷了巨大的壓力。品質挑戰和勞動成本增加。這導致全年成本高於預期。然而，我們在這一年中也實現了一些重大里程碑，包括與我們最大的工會達成了合約決議、邀請帕特領導烈酒回收以及與我們最大的客戶簽署了有利的協議。

We also due to debt refinance and a capital raise, which strengthened our capital structure and increased production rates across many of our major programs. While we expect some of these pressures from 2023 to continue into 2024, we entered the year strongly focused on execution to stabilize and strengthen Spirit both operationally and financially. Given the latest news around the 737 MAX production rates in relation to the FAA approval as well as our ongoing negotiations with Airbus, we are not in a position to provide guidance at this time.

我們也得益於債務再融資和資本籌集，這加強了我們的資本結構並提高了我們許多主要項目的生產力。雖然我們預計 2023 年的部分壓力將持續到 2024 年，但進入這一年，我們強烈關注執行力，以在營運和財務上穩定和加強 Spirit。鑑於與 FAA 批准有關的 737 MAX 生產率的最新消息以及我們與空中巴士正在進行的談判，我們目前無法提供指導。

Now let me take you through the details of our fourth quarter financial results. Let's start on Slide 2. Revenues for the quarter were $1.8 billion, up 37% from the fourth quarter of 2022. This substantial increase year-over-year was primarily due to higher production on our commercial programs, increased defense and space and aftermarket segment revenues as well as the impacts from the previously disclosed Boeing MOA executed in October of 2023, which included favorable pricing adjustments on the 787 program.

現在讓我向您詳細介紹我們第四季的財務表現。讓我們從幻燈片2 開始。該季度的收入為18 億美元，比2022 年第四季度增長37%。這一同比大幅增長主要是由於我們的商業項目產量增加、國防和航太以及售後市場領域的增加收入以及先前披露的 2023 年 10 月執行的波音 MOA 的影響，其中包括對 787 項目的有利定價調整。

Overall, deliveries in the quarter increased 16% year-over-year. Now turning our attention to EPS. We reported earnings per share of positive $0.52 compared to negative $2.32 in the fourth quarter of 2022. Excluding certain items, adjusted EPS was $0.48 compared to negative $1.46 in the prior year. Operating margin was positive 11% compared to negative 11% in the same period of 2022, largely driven by the favorable impacts from our Boeing MOA.

總體而言，本季交付量年增 16%。現在將我們的注意力轉向每股收益。我們報告的每股收益為正 0.52 美元，而 2022 年第四季為負 2.32 美元。不包括某些項目，調整後每股收益為 0.48 美元，而上一年為負 1.46 美元。營運利潤率為正 11%，而 2022 年同期為負 11%，這主要是受到波音 MOA 的有利影響。

As a result of the favorable pricing adjustments to the 787, we reversed $361 million of total liabilities during the fourth quarter, which included 787 forward loss reversals of $206 million, which favorably reduced cost of sales and reversal of 787 material right obligation of $155 million, which flowed through the income statement as an increase to revenue.

由於對787 進行有利的定價調整，我們在第四季度沖銷了3.61 億美元的總負債，其中包括2.06 億美元的787 遠期損失沖銷，這有利地降低了銷售成本，並沖銷了1.55 億美元的787 重大權利義務，作為收入的增加流入損益表。

Fourth quarter net forward loss reversals totaled $34 million and unfavorable cumulative catch-up adjustments was $55 million. This compared to $114 million of forward losses and $59 million of unfavorable cumulative catch-up adjustments in the fourth quarter of 2022. The current quarter forward losses relate primarily to A350 and A220 programs and were driven by higher estimates of supply chain, labor and other costs. We also recorded net incremental forward losses for anticipated performance obligations beyond 2025 in the amount of approximately $30 million.

第四季淨遠期損失逆轉總額為 3,400 萬美元，不利的累計追趕調整為 5,500 萬美元。相較之下，2022 年第四季的遠期損失為1.14 億美元，不利的累積追趕調整為5,900 萬美元。本季的遠期損失主要與A350 和A220 項目有關，是由對供應鏈、勞動力和其他方面的較高估計造成的。成本。我們也記錄了 2025 年後預期履約義務的淨增量遠期損失，金額約 3,000 萬美元。

The unfavorable cumulative catch-up adjustments relate primarily to 737 program, reflecting higher costs required to recover and stabilize the production system, which we have done in the fourth quarter. Now turning to free cash flow. Free cash flow for the quarter was positive $42 million compared to free cash flow usage of $66 million in the fourth quarter of 2022.

不利的累計追趕調整主要與737計劃有關，反映出恢復和穩定生產系統所需的成本更高，我們在第四季度已經做到了這一點。現在轉向自由現金流。本季的自由現金流為正 4,200 萬美元，而 2022 年第四季的自由現金流使用量為 6,600 萬美元。

Fourth quarter free cash flow includes the previously disclosed funding of approximately $100 million received from Boeing per the terms of the MOA and tooling and capital through 2025 on both the 737 and 787 programs. In our effort to stabilize operations, we also made certain working capital investments and accelerated certain capital investments in the fourth quarter of 2023.

第四季自由現金流包括先前披露的根據 MOA 條款從波音獲得的約 1 億美元資金以及截至 2025 年 737 和 787 項目的工具和資本。為了穩定運營，我們也進行了一定的營運資本投資，並在 2023 年第四季加快了一定的資本投資。

Now let's discuss our quarterly segment performance, starting with our commercial segment on Slide 3. In the fourth quarter of 2023 commercial revenues increased 43% over the same period 2022 due to higher production across all of our programs as well as favorable pricing from the 787 Boeing MOA. Quarterly operating margin increased to positive 17% compared to negative 8% in the prior year, primarily driven by a favorable change in estimates recorded in the current period.

現在讓我們討論一下我們的季度業績表現，從幻燈片 3 上的商業部門開始。由於我們所有項目的產量增加以及 787 的優惠定價，2023 年第四季度商業收入比 2022 年同期增長了 43%波音MOA。季度營業利潤率從上一年的負 8% 增至正 17%，這主要是由於本期預測的有利變化所致。

These changes in estimates, which I previously disclosed, included net forward loss reversals of $48 million and unfavorable cumulative catch-up adjustments of $51 million. In comparison to the fourth quarter of 2022, the segment recorded charges of $111 million of forward losses and $58 million of unfavorable cumulative catch-up adjustments.

我之前披露過的這些估計變化包括 4800 萬美元的淨遠期損失逆轉和 5100 萬美元的不利累積追趕調整。與 2022 年第四季相比，該部門記錄了 1.11 億美元的遠期損失費用和 5,800 萬美元的不利累積追趕調整費用。

Now let's turn to Defense & Space segment on Slide 4. Defense & Space grew to $205 million, up 12% higher than the fourth quarter of last year, due to higher development program activity and increased KC-46 Tanker production. Operating margin for the quarter decreased to 2% compared to 11% in 2022, primarily due to higher unfavorable changes in estimates recorded in the period. The segment recorded forward losses of $13 million and unfavorable cumulative catch-up adjustments of $4 million compared to forward losses of $2 million in the fourth quarter of 2022. The forward losses were primarily driven by higher production cost estimates on the CH-53K program and unfavorable cumulative catch-up adjustments, which were primarily driven by the Boeing PA program.

現在讓我們轉向投影片 4 上的國防與航太部門。由於開發計畫活動增加以及 KC-46 加油機產量增加，國防與航太部門成長至 2.05 億美元，比去年第四季成長 12%。與 2022 年的 11% 相比，本季的營業利潤率下降至 2%，這主要是由於該期間記錄的預估不利變化較多。該部門的遠期損失為1,300 萬美元，不利的累計追趕調整為400 萬美元，而2022 年第四季的遠期損失為200 萬美元。遠期損失主要是由於CH-53K 專案的生產成本估算較高且不利的累積追趕調整，主要是由波音 PA 計畫所推動的。

For our aftermarket results, let's turn to Slide 5. Aftermarket had a strong quarter with revenue of $91 million, up 24% compared to the fourth quarter of 2022, primarily due to higher spare parts sales. Aftermarket has continued to grow with global aircraft recovery and is on track to meet our plan for $500 million by 2025. Operating margin was strong for the quarter at 23% compared to 13% during the same period of 2022, primarily due to the absence of a onetime inventory adjustment charge recognized in the fourth quarter of 2022.

對於我們的售後市場業績，讓我們轉向幻燈片 5。售後市場季度表現強勁，收入為 9,100 萬美元，比 2022 年第四季度增長 24%，這主要是由於備件銷售增加。隨著全球飛機的復甦，售後市場持續成長，並預計在 2025 年實現 5 億美元的計畫。本季營業利潤率強勁，達到 23%，而 2022 年同期為 13%，這主要是由於沒有2022 年第四季確認的一次性庫存調整費用。

With that, let's now briefly touch on our full year results on Slide 6. 2023 revenue came in at $6 billion. That's up 20% year-over-year, driven by higher commercial production volumes as well as higher defense and space and aftermarket segment revenues. 2023 adjusted EPS decreased year-over-year primarily due to higher interest and other expenses, partially offset by improved operating income during the current year. Other expense for 2023 was $140 million compared to other expenses of $14 million in 2022, primarily due to higher noncash losses related to settlement accounting for our primary U.S. pension plan, foreign currency and sales of receivables recognized in 2023.

現在，讓我們簡要回顧幻燈片 6 上的全年業績。2023 年收入為 60 億美元。受商業產量增加以及國防、航太和售後市場收入增加的推動，這一數字年增 20%。 2023 年調整後每股盈餘年減，主要是由於利息和其他費用增加，但部分被本年度營業收入的增加所抵銷。 2023 年的其他費用為1.4 億美元，而2022 年的其他費用為1,400 萬美元，主要是由於與我們的主要美國退休金計劃的結算會計、外幣和2023 年確認的應收帳款銷售相關的非現金損失增加。

Full year cash flow was a usage of $374 million compared to a use of 516 in 2022. Free cash flow usage was higher than we previously expected, primarily due to factory costs incurred in the quarter to recover schedule and stabilize operations, higher levels of inventory to support rate increases as well as increased CapEx spend related to the customer-funded capital and tooling received as part of the Boeing MOA.

全年現金流使用量為3.74 億美元，而2022 年為516 美元。自由現金流使用量高於我們先前的預期，主要是由於本季為恢復進度和穩定營運而產生的工廠成本、庫存水準較高支持利率上漲以及與客戶資助的資本和作為波音 MOA 的一部分收到的工具相關的資本支出增加。

With that, let's now turn to cash and debt balances on Slide 7. We ended the year with $824 million of cash, which reflects the proceeds from the issuance of common stock and exchangeable senior notes during the fourth quarter of '23. We will use the if converted method regarding exchangeable notes, implications to EPS, which results in the shares being dilutive if there is positive net income. If net loss position, they would be anti-dilutive. We ended the year with $4.1 billion of debt. There are now no significant debt maturities until 2026. So with that, we will be happy to take your questions.

現在，讓我們轉向投影片 7 上的現金和債務餘額。年底，我們擁有 8.24 億美元的現金，這反映了 23 年第四季發行普通股和可交換優先票據的收益。對於可交換票據，我們將使用「如果轉換」方法，對每股盈餘的影響，如果淨收入為正，則會導致股票被稀釋。如果頭寸出現淨虧損，他們將進行反稀釋。年底我們的債務達到 41 億美元。目前在 2026 年之前沒有重大債務到期。因此，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) We have the first question on the phone line from Seth Seifman of JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）我們在電話線上接到了摩根大通的 Seth Seifman 的第一個問題。

Pat, thanks very much for the comments at the beginning of the call. I guess maybe to level set a bit where 737 is right now, you talked about kind of stabilizing the factory in the fourth quarter. Does that mean stabilizing at a production of 38 a month? And if we took it as a given that it's up to the FAA now when that rate will move higher. But if we took it as a given that that's the rate for 2024 that Spirit is now in a place to produce at that rate through the year and that what we saw -- what we've read about over the past few weeks since the Alaska accident and specifically yesterday with the latest mis-drilling issues and Boeing's effort to cut down on traveled work. Do you still kind of consider the factory to be stabilized at 38 a month?

帕特，非常感謝您在通話開始時的評論。我想也許是為了對 737 目前的情況進行一些調整，您談到了在第四季度穩定工廠的問題。這是否意味著產量穩定在每月 38 個？如果我們認為這是一個既定的事實，那麼現在就由美國聯邦航空局決定何時提高該利率。但如果我們假定這就是 2024 年的產量，那麼精神號現在就能夠以這一速度全年生產，並且我們所看到的——自阿拉斯加以來我們在過去幾週讀到的內容事故，特別是昨天，最新的誤鑽問題以及波音公司減少出差工作的努力。你還認為工廠穩定在每月38嗎？

Seth, I would tell you that we are cycling at 42 a month but building at 38 a month. And by that, I mean we have a production schedule that allows us to have buffer days, and it's our means of testing our ability to go up in rate. And that buffer -- those buffer days allow the factory to when we talk about stability, minimized traveled work, have everybody stay in position. So from that standpoint, we're in a good position, and we'll take our guidance from Boeing as to how to adjust our schedules if necessary.

Seth，我想告訴你，我們每月騎自行車 42 次，但建造每月 38 次。我的意思是，我們有一個生產計劃，可以讓我們有緩衝天數，這是我們測試提高生產力的能力的手段。當我們談論穩定性時，這些緩衝日允許工廠最大程度地減少出差工作，讓每個人都留在原地。因此，從這個角度來看，我們處於有利位置，我們將聽取波音公司的指導，以了解如何在必要時調整我們的時間表。

Maybe I'll just address those 2 nonconforming holes, those are not a safety of flight issue, and just kind of characterize the normal process. Anytime there's a nonconformity, we basically scope and bound it. Engineering does a preliminary look to see if there's a safety of flight issue, then essentially, we communicate to the customers if there's any potential exposure, but we say, here's a heads up and then we do a detailed engineering analysis and work to get a final disposition and when we have a final disposition that we can determine and repair and from that a response.

也許我會解決這兩個不合格的漏洞，這些不是飛行安全問題，只是描述正常過程。每當出現不合格情況時，我們基本上都會對其進行範圍和限制。工程部門會進行初步調查，看看是否有飛行安全問題，然後本質上，我們會與客戶溝通是否有任何潛在的風險，但我們會說，這裡有一個注意事項，然後我們會進行詳細的工程分析並努力獲得最終處置，當我們有了可以確定和修復的最終處置並從中做出回應時。

And relative to these 2 holes, there is not a final engineering disposition. We expect that in the next 72 hours. Based on that, we'll determine what the repair might be and any impact associated with that. And then the follow-on is a root-cause corrective action.

而相對於這2個洞，還沒有最終的工程處置。我們預計在接下來的 72 小時內。在此基礎上，我們將確定可能的修復內容以及與之相關的任何影響。接下來是根本原因糾正措施。

Thank you. We now have David Strauss of Barclays. You may proceed with your question.

謝謝。現在我們有巴克萊銀行的大衛‧史特勞斯。你可以繼續你的問題。

Quick follow-up there. What is the status of the MAX buffer stock as it relates to you matching up with Boeing in terms of your production rate? And then on the Airbus side of things, the $5 million (inaudible) on the balance sheet. At this point, is that really all A220, A350 (inaudible) negotiations conclude with Airbus, should we expect to see a significant reversal there?

那裡的快速跟進。 MAX 緩衝庫存的狀況如何，因為它與您在生產率方面與波音匹配有關？然後在空中巴士方面，資產負債表上有 500 萬美元（聽不清楚）。至此，與空中巴士的所有 A220、A350（聽不清楚）談判真的結束了嗎？我們是否應該期待看到重大逆轉？

Sure. David, let me address your second comment in regards to the balance sheet and the forward loss reserves that we have, both short term and long term. I think we met -- we mentioned this on the last call as it relates to Boeing and the 787 program. We stated that we would be in a forward loss through '24, maybe slightly into the first quarter of 2025. So really the short-term forward loss is -- has some 787 in there as we come down our unit cost curves and drive that to cash flow positive in 2025 and then it would include the A350 as you indicated an A220 and a little bit on 67 and CH-53K, but I think you got it right.

當然。大衛，讓我談談您關於資產負債表和我們擁有的短期和長期遠期損失準備金的第二個評論。我想我們見過面——我們在上次通話中提到了這一點，因為它與波音和 787 項目有關。我們表示，我們將在2024 年之前陷入遠期損失，可能會稍微持續到2025 年第一季。因此，短期遠期損失實際上是——隨著我們降低單位成本曲線並推動這一趨勢，其中大約有787到 2025 年現金流為正，然後它將包括 A350，因為您指出了 A220，還有一點 67 和 CH-53K，但我認為您是對的。

Maybe just to answer the question about the buffer or what we refer to as the ship in place, there are 42 available units today to ship in place. We're taking a few extra days. So think of that as a delay on some of the deliveries to rented just to make sure we can complete all the inspections related to the mid-entry door plug as well as any known rework and doing -- conducting some additional inspections.

也許只是為了回答有關緩衝區或我們所說的「就位」的問題，今天有 42 個可用單位可供就位。我們還要多花幾天。因此，可以將其視為某些租賃交付的延遲，只是為了確保我們能夠完成與中入口門塞相關的所有檢查以及任何已知的返工和操作 - 進行一些額外的檢查。

We now have Jason Gursky of Citigroup.

現在我們有花旗集團的傑森古斯基（Jason Gursky）。

Maybe a 2-part question. I apologize for that. Patrick, wonder if you can just -- to fix the problem, you have to understand exactly how you got here. So I was wondering if you could just from your perspective, describe a little bit about the conditions that led us to where we are today. It sounds like you've got a plan to fix something. I'm just kind of curious to get your input on how we got here.

也許是一個由兩個部分組成的問題。我對此表示歉意。派崔克，想知道你是否可以——為了解決這個問題，你必須準確地理解你是如何走到這一步的。所以我想知道您是否可以從您的角度描述一下導致我們走到今天這一步的條件。聽起來你已經有解決某些問題的計畫了。我只是好奇想聽聽您對我們是如何走到這一步的看法。

And then the second part of the question is, once we figure this all out, has anything kind of fundamentally changed on the types of rate breaks that you can do in the future? I know Boeing's got a master schedule out there. And historically, you guys have gone up 10%, 15% on different rate breaks and then hold for a bit before going back up again. So I'm just wondering, in the context of all of this, whether things have fundamentally changed in the industry or the industry's view on its ability to go up in rate and whether we go up slower than we have in the past?

問題的第二部分是，一旦我們弄清楚了這一切，未來可以進行的利率優惠類型是否會發生根本性的變化？我知道波音公司有一個總體時間表。從歷史上看，你們在不同的利率調整中上漲了 10%、15%，然後持有一段時間，然後再次上漲。所以我只是想知道，在所有這一切的背景下，行業的情況是否發生了根本性的變化，或者行業對其增長能力的看法是否發生了根本性的變化，以及我們增長的速度是否比過去慢了？

Yes, Jason, I think it's hard to go back and look at how we got here. I wish I had that history. But what I would tell you is the basic fundamentals around rate breaks haven't changed. Some of the dynamics around the supply chain have changed. I would offer that some of the work that Spirit has done in the fourth quarter to align the 2024 plan with Boeing's rate schedule has afforded us some more stability. We have used that time to improve the dynamics of the supply chain. We've seen a lot of improvement in the near term to support rate 42. As it relates to rate 47, we have line of sight on virtually all the issues.

是的，傑森，我認為很難回頭看看我們是如何走到這一步的。我希望我有這樣的歷史。但我要告訴你的是，利率優惠的基本面沒有改變。供應鏈的一些動態已經改變了。我想說，Spirit 在第四季度為使 2024 年計劃與波音的費率表保持一致所做的一些工作為我們提供了更多的穩定性。我們利用這段時間來改善供應鏈的動態。我們在短期內看到了支持利率 42 的很大改善。由於它與利率 47 相關，我們幾乎關注所有問題。

Five suppliers that we have to give special attention to. But at this point, the majority of the issues are related to raw material and labor availability. I think the hardest part of this industry is given its complexity and breadth, how do you judge? How quickly to go up in rate? In the case of the 737, it's been done before. So there's a playbook that parametrically says -- this is what you can do, but we have to adjust that for current events in the environment.

我們必須特別關注的五個供應商。但目前，大多數問題都與原材料和勞動力的可用性有關。我認為這個行業最困難的地方在於它的複雜性和廣度，您如何判斷？利率上升的速度有多快？就 737 而言，以前就已經這樣做過。因此，有一本手冊以參數方式說明——這就是你可以做的，但我們必須根據環境中的當前事件進行調整。

But I would say that the 2024 plan we laid out is -- incorporates the existing environment. And if there are any changes, we'll accommodate Boeing's direction.

但我想說，我們制定的 2024 年計畫是——結合了現有環境。如果有任何變化，我們將適應波音的方向。

Thank you. We now have Myles Walton of Wolf Research.

謝謝。現在我們邀請了 Wolf Research 的 Myles Walton。

Pat, you're in a pretty unique position having been inside of Boeing with Vice President of Commercial Airplanes for time and now inside of Spirit. And I can sort of give the perspective, I think, of what if and the what-if is -- if Wichita, we're still part of Boeing with the -- signals with the Boeing quality, the QMS system have captured these quality escapes sooner? And if so, does that create industrial logic for some element of reabsorption? Or is the solution just a greater integration into Boeing's existing QMS?

派特，你的職位非常獨特，你曾在波音公司擔任商用飛機副總裁一段時間，現在又在精神航空公司任職。我認為，我可以給出一個觀點，假設和假設是 - 如果威奇托，我們仍然是波音公司的一部分 - 具有波音質量的信號，QMS 系統已經捕獲了這些質量逃得早嗎？如果是這樣，這是否為某些重吸收元素創造了工業邏輯？或者該解決方案只是更好地整合到波音現有的品質管理系統中？

I guess I would respond not so much to the hypothetical, but the fact that we're behaving as if we were part of Boeing and that the coordination and the integration you refer to is really taking place now. So if you sat in one of our meetings, you people took off their badges, you would not be able to tell which company they worked for. I think because of the trust that's been built recently, some of the feedback loops that existed in the past are being restored and that should allow us to even work better together.

我想我不會對這個假設做出太多回應，但事實是，我們的行為就好像我們是波音公司的一部分，而你提到的協調和整合現在確實正在發生。所以如果你參加我們的一次會議，你們摘下徽章，你就看不出他們在哪家公司工作。我認為，由於最近建立的信任，過去存在的一些回饋循環正在恢復，這應該使我們能夠更好地合作。

So just to clarify that, Pat, is that a change of behavior, the tightness of the feedback loop? Or is that a reflection of what's always been the case?

所以，帕特，我想澄清一下，這是行為的改變，還是回饋循環的緊密程度？還是這反映了一直以來的情況？

I would -- I think as a result of the MOA and the shedding of the financial constraints, it opened up the aperture to really work more seamlessly together, and we're seeing that. And I think we're surprised every single day how much more quickly people are working shoulder to shoulder. So I think the MOA was a big change that allowed us to increase the integration between the 2 companies.

我認為，由於 MOA 和財務限制的解除，它為真正更無縫地合作打開了大門，我們正在看到這一點。我認為我們每天都會驚訝於人們並肩工作的速度有多快。所以我認為 MOA 是一個很大的變化，它使我們能夠加强两個公司之間的整合。

We now have Sheila Kahyaoglu from Jeffries.

現在我們有來自 Jeffries 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

Pat, if I could ask you in just its current state, how do we think about the 737 cash profile per ship set, just given potentially additional costs this year, how does that change with the rate break in '25 if the FAA does also limit you guys at 38% a cap? I'm not sure. And then into '26, the free cash flow per ship set, just given the step down?

帕特，如果我可以問你在目前的情況下，我們如何看待每艘737 飛機的現金配置，考慮到今年可能產生的額外成本，如果FAA 也這樣做，那麼隨著25 年的費率調整，這種情況會如何改變你們限制上限為38%嗎？我不知道。然後進入 26 年，每艘船的自由現金流設置，只考慮到降級？

Sheila, I'm just trying to think. Yes. No, no, no. I mean we obviously go up in rates, you can distribute the overhead more broadly. The fundamentals of the things that we're doing in terms of improving cash flow or cost reduction and a lot of that's through productivity or improvement in quality. So those things aren't going to change. We've built a plan around achieving support -- labor support, I'll say, cost that mirrors our performance in 2018. We're working to that regardless of a change in direction from Boeing. So that might dampen a bit.

希拉，我只是想想想。是的。不不不。我的意思是，我們顯然會提高費率，您可以更廣泛地分配管理費用。我們正在做的事情的基本原理是改善現金流或降低成本，其中許多是透過生產力或品質提高來實現的。所以這些事情不會改變。我們已經制定了一項圍繞獲得支持的計劃——我想說的是，勞動力支持的成本反映了我們 2018 年的業績。無論波音公司的方向如何改變，我們都在努力實現這一目標。所以這可能會減弱一點。

Indirect costs, we're going after the same way, probably the one that wouldn't be affected by rate as working capital because we just need to optimize that to a much larger degree last year, we were anticipating being at a much higher rate. So there's a real opportunity there regardless of where the rates stabilize that. Mark, do you have any other comments?

間接成本，我們正在以同樣的方式追求，可能不會受到營運資本費率的影響，因為我們去年只需要在更大程度上優化它，我們預計會有更高的費率。因此，無論利率穩定在哪裡，都存在著真正的機會。馬克，您還有其他意見嗎？

No, I think you hit it, Pat. Obviously, Sheila, as you go up in rate, you get the leverage from the higher production rates from an absorption standpoint. But at the end of the day, I think the key here is as we look over the next couple of years, it's about operating the factories efficiently, leaning it out, working on flow, working on the items that Pat talked about and he's got the teams really rallied around that.

不，我想你成功了，派特。顯然，希拉，當你提高生產力時，從吸收的角度來看，你會從更高的生產力中獲得槓桿作用。但歸根結底，我認為這裡的關鍵是，我們展望未來幾年，它是關於高效運營工廠，精益求精，致力於流程，致力於帕特談到的項目，他已經得到了團隊確實圍繞這一點團結起來。

And so we're really excited over the next couple of years as we go up in rate to see that financial benefits of those production rates through the variety of actions that we're working on, including focusing on improving overall quality. So we do think over the next couple of years, we'll continue to drive our unit cost down and take advantage of the higher production rates.

因此，在接下來的幾年裡，我們非常興奮，因為我們將透過我們正在採取的各種行動（包括專注於提高整體品質）來提高生產力，從而看到這些生產力所帶來的經濟效益。因此，我們確實認為在接下來的幾年中，我們將繼續降低單位成本並利用更高的生產力。

Sheila, maybe just one add-on here. I think we have to think about the supply chain. I mean, I think that's the one that if we do change production rates, we have to figure out what do we do with the things that we've already ordered. How do we keep them healthy, so that as things get corrected, we can go back to building fuselages. So I think that would be the one we still need to sort through.

希拉，也許只是這裡的一個附加元件。我認為我們必須考慮供應鏈。我的意思是，我認為如果我們確實改變生產率，我們必須弄清楚如何處理我們已經訂購的東西。我們如何保持它們的健康，以便當事情得到糾正時，我們可以重新開始建造機身。所以我認為這將是我們仍然需要解決的問題。

And just to follow up, given the MAX is the biggest driver of your free cash flow, do you still expect -- do you expect free cash flow to be positive in '24 without giving any guidance.

跟進一下，鑑於 MAX 是您自由現金流的最大驅動力，您是否仍然期望 - 您是否期望 24 年自由現金流為正，而無需給出任何指導。

Sheila, let me just address that. I think what I would tell you is with the question marks around the production rate increases in front of us that we had previously planned in '24, the Airbus negotiations, and then just trying to assess what additional cost may come as it relates to quality and the regulatory oversight.

希拉，讓我來解決這個問題。我想我要告訴你的是，我們之前計劃在 24 年進行空中巴士談判，圍繞我們面前的生產力提高提出問號，然後只是試圖評估與品質相關的額外成本可能會出現和監管監督。

As we said in our press release, we're just -- we're not in a position to talk about cash flow. We know that it's an important aspect of our business here, and I'm not trying to avoid the topic. We're working really hard to improve the overall business financially. But give us a little time to digest the current situation here. And in the coming months, we'll be able to give you the answers that you guys are looking for. But I think we need a little bit more certainty. There's -- there's still too much uncertainty here for us to really dial this in and give you a more direct and concrete answer.

正如我們在新聞稿中所說，我們只是——我們無法談論現金流。我們知道這是我們業務的一個重要方面，我並不是想迴避這個話題。我們正在努力改善整體業務的財務狀況。但請給我們一點時間來消化這裡目前的狀況。在接下來的幾個月裡，我們將能夠為你們提供你們正在尋找的答案。但我認為我們需要更多的確定性。這裡仍然存在太多的不確定性，我們無法真正解決這個問題並給您一個更直接和具體的答案。

So more to come. It's not now, but give us a little while, and we'll be able to address those questions.

未來還會有更多。現在還不是時候，但請給我們一點時間，我們將能夠解決這些問題。

We now have Scott Deuschle from Deutsche Bank.

現在請來德意志銀行的斯科特‧德施勒 (Scott Deuschle)。

Pat, have you priced your content on B21 yet?

Pat，您在 B21 上為您的內容定價了嗎？

You say that one more time. This is on the LRIP.

你再說一次。這是 LRIP 上的。

The B21 kind of.

B21之類的。

Yes, have you priced your LRIP content on B21 yet?

是的，您已經在 B21 上為 LRIP 內容定價了嗎？

We have not.

我們還沒有。

Okay. And then, Pat, can you clarify what the operating elements might be with respect to the Airbus negotiations? Are you referencing moving some work over to them? Or is this something else?

好的。然後，帕特，您能否澄清一下空中巴士談判的營運要素是什麼？您是指將一些工作交給他們嗎？還是這是別的什麼？

Well, our focus has really been on price and the focus has really been on understanding between the 2 companies what is the right level of productivity that should be achieved that they're willing to pay for and what is costs were all aligned on that is real and needs to be reflected in the price. And our discussions to date have been in substantiating both of those. And along with that, aligning expectations around our performance on the 220 and the 350 in '24.

嗯，我們的重點實際上是價格，重點是兩家公司之間的理解，他們願意支付的應該達到的正確生產力水平是多少，以及成本是多少。真實且需要反映在價格中。到目前為止，我們的討論一直在證實這兩點。除此之外，我們也調整了 24 年 220 和 350 性能的預期。

We now have Ken Herbert of RBC Capital Market.

現在請來了加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的肯‧赫伯特 (Ken Herbert)。

Pat and Mark. I wanted to ask on inventory build. Can you comment on at which rate you're pulling say, MAX shipments from suppliers at and depending upon your schedules with Boeing on the MAX, how much inventory are you prepared to build? And maybe how much of a use of cash as working capital this year versus maybe visibility on how much of a savings it can be in the back half of the year?

帕特和馬克。我想問一下庫存建設。您能否評論一下您從供應商提貨的速度，以及根據您與波音公司在 MAX 上的時間表，您準備建立多少庫存？也許今年使用了多少現金作為營運資金，而下半年可能會節省多少資金？

Thanks, Ken. Let me take that one. I think Pat briefly mentioned it, as we move through 2023, we had expected to be at a higher rate at this point in time. We'd expect it to deliver more than we finished the year out at. And so we built inventory throughout the year and ordered inventory from our suppliers in anticipation of that. And that caused us to build inventory to help to support 42 a month.

謝謝，肯。讓我拿走那個。我認為帕特簡單地提到了這一點，隨著我們進入 2023 年，我們預計此時的成長率會更高。我們預計它的交付量將超過我們今年年底的交付量。因此，我們全年都建立了庫存，並為此向供應商訂購了庫存。這促使我們建立庫存以幫助支援每月 42 個產品。

We've also tactically here in the fourth quarter, built strategic buffers with critical components for our production system. So really, you saw throughout the year, almost a $300 million increase in inventory through 2023, and that was in anticipation of higher rates. As we move into 2024, and where our plans are at here. We're not going to have to make that sizable increase because we've got the suppliers tuned up to help support and produce and deliver at 42 aircrafts per month. So I would say that as we move into 2024, I would anticipate working capital the drag that we saw in 2023 to be released to a big degree.

我們還在第四季度從戰術上為我們的生產系統的關鍵組件建立了戰略緩衝區。事實上，到 2023 年，全年庫存增加了近 3 億美元，這是在預期更高的利率的情況下實現的。進入 2024 年，我們的計劃就到此為止。我們不需要大幅增加，因為我們已經對供應商進行了調整，以幫助支援、生產和交付每月 42 架飛機。因此，我想說，隨著我們進入 2024 年，我預計我們在 2023 年看到的營運資本拖累將在很大程度上得到緩解。

And so I think in summary, suppliers are delivering to us at 42. Pat talked about what our factory cycling to. And so our goal here is to really optimize the working capital as we stabilize the factory, and we think that there's some work for us to go do there. And we think that as we move forward here, that will create a bit of a tailwind to our free cash flow.

所以我認為總而言之，供應商在 42 點向我們交貨。帕特談到了我們工廠的循環。因此，我們的目標是在穩定工廠的同時真正優化營運資金，我們認為我們還有一些工作要做。我們認為，當我們向前邁進時，這將為我們的自由現金流帶來一些順風。

And maybe just to add on to what Mark is saying, there are discrete plans around how we're managing the suppliers and the buffer. So again, one of the things we ask them to do is protect the factory in terms of the critical jobs that need parts to maintain the build of the aircraft. And so in those critical areas, we've built buffer stock. There are also suppliers when we look at their history that are unpredictable. So those we will continue to work with, but we'll probably build some buffer stock.

也許只是為了補充馬克所說的，關於我們如何管理供應商和緩衝區有一些離散的計劃。再說一次，我們要求他們做的事情之一就是保護工廠的關鍵工作，這些工作需要零件來維持飛機的製造。因此，在這些關鍵領域，我們建立了緩衝庫存。當我們回顧他們的歷史時，也有一些供應商是不可預測的。因此，我們將繼續與這些人合作，但我們可能會建立一些緩衝庫存。

Then there are the highly reliable consistent suppliers where we need to maximize inventory turns and the teams are taking those bleeding down the inventory and trying to balance there, the suppliers build -- we don't want to turn them off and start them at the same time, we've got a kind of optimized way to get our inventory turns up. So it's a dance and the teams are able to do pulled 10 levers, whereas in the past, I think it was just one order all the parts. So I expect to see a real improvement in 2024.

然後是高度可靠的一致供應商，我們需要最大限度地提高庫存週轉率，團隊正在減少庫存並試圖平衡供應商建立的供應商——我們不想關閉它們並在同時，我們有一種優化的方法來提高庫存週轉率。所以這是一場舞蹈，團隊能夠拉動 10 個槓桿，而在過去，我認為這只是一個命令所有部件。所以我預計 2024 年會看到真正的改善。

We now have Doug Harned of Bernstein.

現在我們有伯恩斯坦的道格·哈尼德。

When you talked about the process redesign, introducing automation as some of the things you're doing to deal with the quality escapes across the company. But I think of this on really 2 time scales, and that can be and some of those things can be longer term. But at the same time, you have issues that may already be in things that have been done, like the mis-drilled holes that came up over the weekend. There's a lot of concern that there could be another incident like the Alaska MAX 9 incident.

當您談到流程重新設計時，引入自動化作為您正在做的一些事情來處理整個公司的品質問題。但我實際上是在兩個時間尺度上思考這個問題，這可能是，其中一些事情可能是長期的。但同時，已經完成的事情可能已經存在一些問題，例如週末出現的誤鑽漏洞。人們非常擔心可能會再次發生像阿拉斯加 MAX 9 事件這樣的事件。

How do you make sure that as you do the broader redesign, you can also identify any situations that might be an issue in things that have already been essentially produced?

如何確保在進行更廣泛的重新設計時，您還可以識別出可能在已經基本生產的產品中出現問題的任何情況？

Yes. No, good. Thank you for that question. And I remember in the last call, you asked me about just the overall quality and maybe we can expand into that. I think the short answer to that question is our quality management system really looks at product quality, the FA's safety management system looks at product safety.

是的。不好。謝謝你提出這個問題。我記得在上次通話中，您只問了我關於整體品質的問題，也許我們可以擴展到這一點。我認為這個問題的簡短答案是我們的品質管理系統真正著眼於產品質量，FA 的安全管理系統著眼於產品安全。

So our first look at the 37 has been through the product safety lens. And maybe just in parallel, I think what you'll find is that there -- if we drew a Venn diagram, there would be a lot of overlap between the safety management, system risk assessment and feedback nonconformities for our QMS. But our first priority has been to look through the product safety lens. We have 4 discrete categories that we're evaluating. If you look at the installation plans that we have that direct how a 737 fuselage is built, there are 2,300. Through this lens of product safety, we've distilled it down to 200 that we're going through and doing a detailed examination to include observations of the mechanics and a review by our master mechanic of the build process.

因此，我們首先從產品安全角度來檢視 37。也許同時，我想你會發現，如果我們畫了維恩圖，我們的品質管理系統的安全管理、系統風險評估和回饋不合格之間會有很多重疊。但我們的首要任務是從產品安全角度來檢視。我們正在評估 4 個獨立的類別。如果你看一下我們指導如何建造 737 機身的安裝計劃，你會發現有 2,300 個。透過產品安全的視角，我們將其精簡為 200 個，我們正在經歷並進行詳細檢查，其中包括對機械結構的觀察以及我們的機械師對建造過程的審查。

That's in parallel, I think, Doug, maybe to this broader question of what are you doing now about quality? And what are you doing long term? And the short answer for us at Spirit on quality is less manual, less interpretation and more inspections. Medium term and long term is more human-assisted equipment and technology, more automation. And when we think about, well, where is the focus, it's where most of the manual work is, it's in the forward and rear sections of the airplane.

我想，道格，這可能與這個更廣泛的問題是並行的，即你現在在品質方面做了什麼？你長期在做什麼？ Spirit 對品質的簡短回答是減少手動、減少解釋和更多檢查。中長期來看是更多的人力輔助設備和技術，更多的自動化。當我們思考焦點在哪裡時，這是大部分手動工作的地方，在飛機的前部和後部。

If you are a mechanic working in there, you'd almost have to be a gymnast. So we're really looking at, well, how do we address the human factors as some of this other technology is bridging to be implemented. We're very focused in four areas. The first is proficiency. We got to test more, we got to train more. The second is compliance. And I always think of Bill Belicheck here is, do your job. So part of the compliance piece is people have to show up and do their job. I mean, we will help them do their job, but there's an element of they need to be committed to personal warranty.

如果你是在那裡工作的機械師，你幾乎必須是體操運動員。因此，我們真正關注的是，隨著其他一些技術的實施，我們如何解決人為因素的問題。我們非常關註四個領域。首先是熟練程度。我們必須進行更多測試，我們必須進行更多訓練。二是合規性。我一直認為比爾貝利切克就是，做好你的工作。因此，合規性的一部分是人們必須出現並做好他們的工作。我的意思是，我們將幫助他們完成工作，但他們需要致力於個人保固。

The third is, there's a lot of things we can do to mistake-proof. The build of the aircraft. And probably the last one is observation. It's not just more inspections, but it's our team spending more time on the factory floor. So that's -- if you were to come here to our war room and look at our plans, you see that we're really trying to address human factors in the near term, prioritized by product safety.

第三，我們可以做很多事情來防止錯誤。飛機的構造。也許最後一項就是觀察。這不僅僅是更多的檢查，而是我們的團隊在工廠車間花了更多的時間。所以，如果您來到我們的作戰室並查看我們的計劃，您會發現我們確實在短期內努力解決人為因素問題，並以產品安全為優先考慮。

And if I can just quickly follow up. Is there a way to characterize where you are on this path? I mean, you've now had a chance to be much closer to this over the last few months. Is there a way to characterize when you feel like at least in the near term here, the issues, the escapes that we have seen that you've got a really solid handle on it and feel confident in what's being delivered, I guess.

如果我能快速跟進的話。有沒有辦法描述你在這條道路上的位置？我的意思是，在過去的幾個月裡，你現在有機會更接近這一點。我想，當你至少在短期內感覺到我們已經看到的問題和逃避時，有沒有一種方法可以描述你已經真正掌握了它並對所交付的內容充滿信心。

Yes. I mean that's the question that I think we all wrestle with how can we predict the future? It's hard. I don't know how to predict it, but I -- some of the things that we just talked about it or the best way to do that. So it's here in short order, making real progress in making these things stick, I think, will give us the belt and suspenders confidence that we can mitigate this.

是的。我的意思是，我認為這是我們都在努力解決的問題：我們如何預測未來？這個很難（硬。我不知道如何預測它，但我 - 我們剛剛討論過的一些事情或做到這一點的最佳方法。因此，我認為，在短期內，在使這些事情堅持下去方面取得真正的進展，將使我們充滿信心，相信我們可以緩解這一問題。

I'd say the other one is we've been working with Boeing to do more inspections and more inspections as though we weren't doing a lot of inspections. I think what we're doing a better job of is harmonizing our work together. So we're looking at it the same way, at the same time, all the time and trying to keep it here in Wichita. And these are -- some of them are our interpretation of fastener rider skin quality. But those -- when we're working together mitigate what ends up being found in rent in where it's much more disruptive to fix.

我想說的另一個是我們一直在與波音合作進行更多的檢查，就好像我們沒有進行大量的檢查一樣。我認為我們做得更好的是協調我們的工作。因此，我們始終以同樣的方式看待它，並努力將其保留在威奇托。其中一些是我們對緊固件騎士皮膚品質的詮釋。但當我們共同努力時，這些問題最終會減輕租金中的問題，而解決起來更具破壞性。

We now have George Shapiro from Shapiro Research.

現在請來夏皮羅研究中心的喬治·夏皮羅。

Mark, if I look at the underlying margins that you've had in commercial, I mean you had 10.6% as the high in the first quarter, and you had relatively high 737 deliveries. But this quarter, you had the highest 737 deliveries and the margin was like 8.5%. Now is that just reflective of the extra work that you mentioned that you put into try and improve the production process in the quarter? And what would be kind of a normal look as we went forward on this?

馬克，如果我看看你們在商業領域的基本利潤率，我的意思是你們第一季的最高利潤率為 10.6%，並且你們的 737 交付量相對較高。但本季，你們的交付量最高為 737 架，利潤率約為 8.5%。這是否只是反映了您提到的在本季度嘗試改進生產流程的額外工作？當我們繼續討論這個問題時，正常的外觀是什麼樣的？

George, I would say just that, I mean, it's hard to assess and state that the fourth quarter is kind of a normalized commercial margin. We entered the quarter in a very disruptive state behind schedule. Pat talked about, we did a pause in the fourth quarter. And so there was a lot of investment to stabilize the factory in the fourth quarter. And you saw that come through in the unfavorable cumulative catch-up.

喬治，我只想說，我的意思是，很難評估和聲明第四季是一種正常化的商業利潤。我們在進入本季度時處於非常混亂的狀態，落後於計劃。帕特談到，我們在第四節暫停了。因此，第四季有大量投資來穩定工廠。你看到了這一點是在不利的累積追趕中實現的。

We delivered the most deliveries that fuselages in the fourth quarter than we did in 4 years. So there was definitely a big cost investment to stabilize the 737 production system. And when we think about jobs behind schedule all of the operational metrics that we had as we exited the year we were in the best shape than we've been in a long, long time here. So I don't want to lean forward here and start talking about what the normal margins are, but they were definitely depressed as it relates to the investment we made to stabilize the operations.

我們第四季交付的機身數量是四年來最多的。所以為了穩定737的生產體系肯定需要很大的成本投入。當我們考慮到落後於計劃的工作時，我們在今年結束時所擁有的所有營運指標都處於比我們很長一段時間以來最好的狀態。因此，我不想在這裡向前傾斜並開始談論正常利潤率是多少，但他們肯定很沮喪，因為這與我們為穩定營運而進行的投資有關。

And we did a lot of good work in the fourth quarter. Anything you want to cover, Pat, on top of that?

我們在第四季做了很多出色的工作。派特，除此之外，你還有什麼想要報道的嗎？

And in addition, it's not margins, but we also made working capital investments to also stabilize that factory and that put a little bit of pressure on cash, although your question wasn't about cash. It was more about the margins. But the goal here is once you have a stable factory, the financials will come with it, and that's what we're focused on.

此外，這不是利潤，但我們也進行了營運資本投資，以穩定工廠，這給現金帶來了一點壓力，儘管你的問題與現金無關。更多的是關於利潤。但這裡的目標是，一旦你擁有穩定的工廠，財務狀況就會隨之而來，這就是我們關注的重點。

And one quick follow-up, Mark. The free cash flow that you missed in the quarter, I mean, certainly, it looks like $30 million or so was CapEx, and you enumerated a couple of other things. I would think that some of that is actually a benefit to 2024 because you won't be spending that much more on CapEx than what you spent this quarter. Is that a fair statement?

還有一個快速跟進，馬克。你在本季錯過的自由現金流，我的意思是，當然，看起來資本支出約為 3000 萬美元，你還列舉了其他一些事情。我認為其中一些實際上對 2024 年是有利的，因為您在資本支出上的支出不會比本季度花費的多得多。這是一個公平的說法嗎？

That's right, George. We'll buy some of that back as we move into 2024, for sure, right? We as we think about stabilizing the operations and co-investing with Boeing, we did accelerate some of that CapEx to stabilize the system. And so as you said, some of that will come back as a benefit in 2024.

沒錯，喬治。當我們進入 2024 年時，我們肯定會回購其中的一些，對吧？當我們考慮穩定營運並與波音公司共同投資時，我們確實加快了一些資本支出以穩定係統。正如您所說，其中一些將在 2024 年作為收益回來。

We now have Gavin Parsons of UBS.

現在我們有瑞銀集團的加文‧帕森斯。

Maybe just following up on George's question there or on the end on cash flow. A lot of moving pieces in '23. I think besides the working capital, the pension closeout the MOA, the advances labor contract ratification. What are some of the other moving pieces? Or are there other onetime items we should keep an eye out for in '24 or is '24 a relatively clean year best we can tell?

也許只是跟進喬治的問題或最後的現金流問題。 23 年有很多動人的作品。我認為除了營運資金之外，退休金還清了MOA，預支了勞動合約批准書。還有哪些令人感動的作品？或者我們在 24 年是否還應該關注其他一次性項目，或者我們能判斷 24 是否是一個相對乾淨的年份？

As you said, there was several onetime items, both good and bad in 2023. As we think about 2024, we are not anticipating significant one-offs as we stand here today. I think it's about just running the business. We talked about some of the opportunities to improve free cash flow and what are some of the tailwinds we're working hard. We talked about the operations, but we're also focused on indirect and overhead costs and the working capital side of things. But Gavin, I'm not aware of any of the sizable type items that we saw in 2023 coming back in 2024.

正如您所說，2023 年有幾個一次性項目，有好有壞。當我們思考 2024 年時，我們今天站在這裡，預計不會出現重大一次性項目。我認為這只是經營業務。我們討論了改善自由現金流的一些機會以及我們正在努力的一些有利因素。我們討論了運營，但我們也關注間接成本和間接成本以及營運資金方面。但 Gavin，我不知道我們在 2023 年看到的任何大型專案會在 2024 年回歸。

We now have Noah Poponak from Goldman Sachs. You may proceed.

現在請來高盛的諾亞波波納克 (Noah Poponak)。您可以繼續。

Pat and Mark, what's your latest thinking on your framework of where your free cash flow margin can go in the future, putting any specific (inaudible) just longer term at -- compared to history at equivalent volumes, right? You used to have a targeted range and then you've had a targeted range for when volumes are back at certain levels.

帕特和馬克，您對未來自由現金流利潤率框架的最新想法是什麼，將任何特定（聽不清楚）的長期目標與同等數量的歷史相比，對嗎？你曾經有一個目標範圍，然後當成交量回到某個水平時你也有一個目標範圍。

Is there any kind of new way you're thinking about that as you evaluate where pricing costs are shaking out -- and then I'm curious also to hear you talk about how you are going through the process of renegotiating pricing while your costs are such a moving target? Right? You're at low volumes where you sort of don't even know what the cost per unit is at higher volumes or double the volumes, right? So how are you factoring that in as you go through these customer pricing renegotiations?

當你評估定價成本的變化時，你是否正在思考這個問題——然後我也很好奇聽到你談論在成本下降的情況下你是如何經歷重新談判定價的過程的。這麼移動的目標？正確的？您的產量較低，您甚至不知道較高產量或雙倍產量時的每單位成本是多少，對嗎？那麼，在進行這些客戶定價重新談判時，您該如何考慮這一因素？

Okay. Noah, let me address the second one first and I understand your point with fourth quarter here, we just took some additional forward losses, which will put pressure on unit costs as we move forward here. But we've been doing a lot of work as we think about the A220, A350 on our long-term unit costs. We've worked shoulder to shoulder with our customer as it relates to where we are now, what the learning curves look like, what benefits we'll get from optimizing the supply chain over the next 3 or 4 years.

好的。諾亞，讓我先解決第二個問題，我理解你第四季度的觀點，我們剛剛承受了一些額外的遠期損失，這將給我們前進的單位成本帶來壓力。但我們在考慮 A220、A350 的長期單位成本時做了很多工作。我們與客戶並肩工作，因為這關係到我們現在所處的位置、學習曲線是什麼樣的、我們將在未來 3 到 4 年內從優化供應鏈中獲得什麼好處。

We've done a deep dive internally to assess that as best we can based on what we know now. And that is really the information that we're using as we enter the conversations with our customers and that's the best way that I would describe that on the Airbus side. As it relates to longer term...

我們已經在內部進行了深入研究，以根據我們現在所知道的情況盡可能地評估這一點。這確實是我們在與客戶進行對話時使用的訊息，這是我在空中巴士方面描述這一點的最佳方式。因為它涉及到更長期的...

Maybe I'll just add on to that, Noah. When we think about like the 220, for example, a good portion of the cost reduction, which allows us to get to the right pricing level comes from a transfer of work. Many of the suppliers that we would transfer the work to, this is coming out the old Bombardier supply chain are going to Airbus suppliers. And we've jointly evaluated those costs, and Airbus has a significant history with those suppliers. So I feel confident in that cost basis. We also have a fairly good understanding of the cost and productivity curves for assembly, particularly in Belfast. And that's really 9% or 10% of the cost. But those learning curves hold true.

也許我會補充一點，諾亞。例如，當我們考慮 220 時，成本降低的很大一部分來自工作轉移，這使我們能夠達到正確的定價水準。我們將把工作轉移給許多供應商，這些供應商來自舊的龐巴迪供應鏈，現在將轉​​移給空中巴士供應商。我們共同評估了這些成本，空中巴士與這些供應商有著悠久的歷史。所以我對這個成本基礎充滿信心。我們對組裝的成本和生產力曲線也有相當深入的了解，尤其是在貝爾法斯特。這實際上只佔成本的 9% 或 10%。但這些學習曲線是正確的。

And I would just say on the 350, there's a history of a higher production. So that kind of holds as a baseline that we need to get back to, and then there's a normal adjustment for labor and raw material price increases. So I don't think there's -- with these increased rates that it really creates a different cost estimating basis that we're not familiar with.

我只想說，350 有著更高產量的歷史。因此，我們需要回到這種基線，然後對勞動力和原材料價格上漲進行正常調整。因此，我認為這些增加的費率並不會真正創造出我們不熟悉的不同成本估算基礎。

Okay. That makes sense.

好的。這就說得通了。

And then to address your first question around long term. I don't want to get into the prediction business. But when you think about what this business generated in the past, I think you're referencing the 7% to 9% margins and $500 million to $600 million worth of free cash flow in the future. As we go up to the higher rates that will obviously help from a revenue and a profitability and a cash flow standpoint, I think we can get back to those levels.

然後回答你關於長期的第一個問題。我不想涉足預測產業。但當你思考這項業務過去產生的成果時，我認為你指的是未來 7% 到 9% 的利潤率和價值 5 億到 6 億美元的自由現金流。當我們提高利率時，從收入、獲利能力和現金流的角度來看，這顯然會有所幫助，我認為我們可以回到這些水平。

There are some headwinds as it relates to some of the inflationary pressures that we talked about before like the IM contract. But I think the single biggest item that we need to work on to help us drive back up to those cash flows because I think the business is going to drive it is we're carrying $4 billion of debt and $350 million, $325 million of cash interest.

存在一些阻力，因為它與我們之前討論過的一些通膨壓力有關，例如 IM 合約。但我認為我們需要努力幫助我們恢復這些現金流的最重要的項目是我們背負著 40 億美元的債務和 3.5 億美元、3.25 億美元的現金，因為我認為業務將推動它。興趣。

So over the next couple of years, we need to take that positive cash flow, pay down debt. Not only will that help our leverage from a balance sheet standpoint, but it will get the cash interest drag off the books. And if we can drive that interest back down to our historical measures, we can get back to similar to levels that we've had in the past.

因此，在接下來的幾年裡，我們需要利用正現金流來償還債務。從資產負債表的角度來看，這不僅有助於我們的槓桿作用，而且還能將現金利息從帳面上拖走。如果我們能夠將這種興趣降低到我們的歷史衡量標準，我們就可以回到與過去類似的水平。

Your next question comes from Robert Stallard of Vertical Research.

您的下一個問題來自垂直研究公司的羅伯特·斯塔拉德。

Pat, I just wanted to follow up on a comment you made earlier that you said that Spirit personnel are acting as if they're now part of Boeing. I was wondering if this has any sort of impact on your relationship with Airbus in particular and perhaps to other customers?

帕特，我只是想跟進您之前發表的評論，您說精神號人員的表現就好像他們現在是波音公司的一部分一樣。我想知道這是否會對您與空中巴士的關係（尤其是與其他客戶的關係）產生任何影響？

I don't think so. I guess the real difference is I know more people at Boeing than I do at Airbus, but I've quickly come to meet quite a few of the executive leadership through program reviews we've been doing on the $220 million and the $350 million. But my Rolodex isn't as great. But I'd say the interaction is just as positive and the transparency and the focus on driving improvement. I'll do a number of -- they use Google Meet, we Google meet. And the feedback I get is just as direct as the feedback I get from Boeing and working together effort is almost identical.

我不這麼認為。我想真正的區別是我在波音認識的人比在空中巴士認識的人多，但透過我們對 2.2 億美元和 3.5 億美元進行的專案審查，我很快就結識了相當多的執行領導層。但我的名片盒沒那麼好。但我想說的是，互動同樣積極、透明，並且專注於推動改進。我會做一些——他們使用 Google Meet，我們使用 Google Meet。我得到的回饋與我從波音公司得到的回饋一樣直接，而且共同努力幾乎是相同的。

I mean, everybody tries to get the job done the right way. I think with Boeing, I just had a few more tricks in my bag just because of my familiarity with how to navigate their system. But the treatment and the behavior and working together Spirit out of (inaudible) is strong. And we just were able to get things done pretty well.

我的意思是，每個人都試圖以正確的方式完成工作。我認為在波音公司，我只是因為熟悉如何導航他們的系統而在我的包裡多了一些技巧。但治療、行為和共同努力的精神（聽不清楚）很強。我們只是能夠很好地完成事情。

Your next question comes from Michael Ciarmoli of Truist Securities.

您的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Michael Ciarmoli。

Pat, lots of talk about quality. If the airplane is the boss, we got safety and quality are paramount. If I just -- maybe not to put you on the spot, but if I look at your proxy, and I guess you're going to file it next month, compensation incentives, looks like only 20% is tied to quality on annual cash comp, nothing tied to quality in the longer term. It seems like everything we're talking about here, cash generation revenue, EBIT margin, all tied to quality.

帕特，很多關於品質的討論。如果飛機是老大，那麼安全和品質就至關重要。如果我只是——也許不是讓你難堪，但如果我看看你的委託書，我猜你會在下個月提交，薪酬激勵看起來只有 20% 與年度現金的質量有關comp，從長遠來看與品質無關。看起來我們在這裡談論的一切，現金產生收入，息稅前利潤率，都與品質掛鉤。

I mean, are you guys planning on changing compensation to drive some of this behavior towards more of a focus on quality.

我的意思是，你們是否計劃改變薪酬，以推動這種行為更加重視品質。

It will be significantly different. And the heaviest weighting will be on quality. And right now, I'm really working to design it. So the system can't -- manipulation is probably too strong, but I want to make sure that it drives the right behaviors and we can measure true performance. I'll just do a shout out to Donna Anderson at T. Rowe Price, and she threw out the idea. You got to really look at the utility industry. We're in their quality metric, there's a significant penalty for an escape.

這將會有很大的不同。最重要的權重將是品質。現在，我正在努力設計它。所以系統不能——操縱可能太強了，但我想確保它驅動正確的行為，並且我們可以衡量真實的性能。我只想向 T. Rowe Price 的唐娜安德森大聲喊叫，但她拒絕了這個想法。你必須真正關注公用事業行業。我們按照他們的品質標準，逃跑會受到嚴重處罰。

So we're really trying to look at how do we measure defect reduction, but also what if there's any type of escape. Only one wouldn't drive much in the metric, but it really should. So the answer to your question is we're changing it fundamentally, and we're now making sure that what we put in place works well and drives the right kind of behavior.

因此，我們確實在嘗試研究如何衡量缺陷減少情況，以及如果存在任何類型的逃逸該怎麼辦。只有一個人不會在公制中駕駛太多，但它確實應該。所以你的問題的答案是我們正在從根本上改變它，我們現在正在確保我們所採取的措施運作良好並推動正確的行為。

Thank you. Due to time, our final caller comes from Peter Arment of Robert W. Baird.

謝謝。由於時間關係，我們的最後一位來電者來自 Robert W. Baird 的 Peter Arment。

Yes, Mark, Pat. Maybe just a quick one. I mean is there a timing when you expect to price the B-21 LRIP? And then just, Mark, if you could just give a little more color on the CH-53K program. I know you mentioned some of the forward losses there. Just what -- any color in terms of the health of the program right now?

是的，馬克，帕特。也許只是快一點。我的意思是，您預計何時為 B-21 LRIP 定價？然後，馬克，您能否為 CH-53K 計劃提供更多資訊。我知道你提到了一些遠期損失。到底是什麼——目前該計劃的健康狀況有什麼變化嗎？

Why don't we switch? Why don't you answer the LRIP, I'll answer the 53.

我們為什麼不換？為什麼不回答 LRIP，我回答 53。

Absolutely. Yes. Thanks, Peter. On the B21, we expect in the back half of this year to complete the negotiations in regards to the initial LRIP on that program. We're on the tail end of the development side of the program, which is a cost-plus type arrangement and so we'll be able to report back more on that later in the year. And obviously, when we think about our customers, our goal here is to sign up for contracts that add value to our company. And so that's what our focus is going to be as we negotiate that contract later in the year.

絕對地。是的。謝謝，彼得。關於 B21，我們預計在今年下半年完成有關該計劃初始 LRIP 的談判。我們正處於該計劃開發方面的尾部，這是一種成本加成類型的安排，因此我們將能夠在今年稍後報告更多相關情況。顯然，當我們考慮客戶時，我們的目標是簽署為我們公司增加價值的合約。因此，這就是我們今年稍後談判合約時的重點。

Yes, just maybe comment on the CH-53 program. We disappointed Stephanie Hill and our teammates at Lockheed Martin in '23. We're on track to turn that around in '24, and it personally consumes my time every week, so we can deliver not only deliver on the airframes we've committed to, but also get to a higher production rate that supports the needs of the Marine Corps.

是的，也許只是對 CH-53 計劃發表評論。 23 年，我們讓史蒂芬妮·希爾 (Stephanie Hill) 和洛克希德·馬丁公司的隊友們感到失望。我們預計在 24 年扭轉這一局面，這每週都會佔用我的時間，因此我們不僅可以交付我們承諾的機身，還可以達到更高的生產率來滿足需求海軍陸戰隊的。

We have no further questions. And I would like to conclude the call here. Thank you all for joining and I can confirm the Spirit AeroSystems Fourth Quarter 2023 Conference Call has now concluded. And you may now disconnect your lines, and please enjoy the rest of your day.

我們沒有其他問題了。我想在此結束這通通話。感謝大家的加入，我可以確認 Spirit AeroSystems 2023 年第四季電話會議現已結束。現在您可以斷開線路，並享受接下來的一天。