Spirit AeroSystems Holdings Inc (SPR) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Rica, and I will be your coordinator today. (Operator Instructions) And I now would like to hand the presentation over to Ryan Avey, Senior Director, of Investor Relations and FP&A. Please go ahead.

女士們，先生們，早安，歡迎參加Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. 2023年第四季及全年業績電話會議。我叫Rica，今天將擔任您的主持人。 （操作員指示）現在，我想將演示交給投資者關係和財務規劃與分析高級總監Ryan Avey。請開始。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. I'm Ryan Avey, and with me today are Spirit's President and Chief Executive Officer, Pat Shanahan and Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Mark Suchinski. Before we begin, I need to remind you that any projections or goals we may include in our discussion today are likely to involve risks, including those detailed in our earnings release, in our SEC filings and in the forward-looking statement at the end of this web presentation.

謝謝大家，早安。我是瑞安·艾維 (Ryan Avey)，今天與我一同出席的還有 Spirit 總裁兼首席執行官帕特·沙納漢 (Pat Shanahan) 和高級副總裁兼首席財務官馬克·蘇欽斯基 (Mark Suchinski)。在開始之前，我需要提醒大家，我們今天討論的任何預測或目標都可能涉及風險，包括我們收益報告、美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 文件以及本網路演示末尾的前瞻性聲明中詳細說明的風險。

In addition, we refer you to our earnings release and presentation for disclosures and reconciliation of non-GAAP measures we use when discussing our results. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Pat.

此外，我們建議您參閱我們的績效報告和簡報，其中揭露了我們在討論績效時使用的非公認會計準則 (Non-GAAP) 指標，並進行對帳。接下來，我想將電話會議交給派特。

Thank you, Ryan, and good morning, everyone. Today, I will update you on how we are running the business at Spirit. Most of my remarks will focus on the steps we took after the January 5th accident. Mark will address the financials in his comments. My mandate when I came here was to put our operations and financials back on solid footing. In my estimation, we achieved significant progress toward that goal in the fourth quarter. However, the accident on January 5th demanded a different focus by our team.

謝謝瑞安，大家早安。今天，我將向大家報告精神航空的運作情況。我的發言主要集中在1月5日事故發生後我們採取的措施。馬克將在他的演講中談到財務方面。我上任時的職責是讓我們的營運和財務狀況重回穩固。據我估計，我們在第四季度朝著這個目標取得了顯著進展。然而，1月5日的事故要求我們團隊重新關注。

Consistent with our protocols, our response team was activated within hours. Since that moment, Spirit's focus was on supporting Boeing, it's airline customers, the NTSB, the FAA and our people. The immediate response was taking a hard look at our processes and incorporating any findings into action. Within days, we enacted countermeasures to include adding in-line and ship in place inspections with Boeing that replicated those performed by the airlines to return to service, leveraging the FAA's safety management system to conduct a product safety risk assessment.

根據我們的規程，我們的回應團隊在幾個小時內就啟動了。從那時起，Spirit航空的重點就是支持波音公司、其航空公司客戶、美國國家運輸安全委員會 (NTSB)、美國聯邦航空管理局 (FAA) 以及我們的員工。我們立即採取的措施是認真審查我們的流程，並將任何發現轉化為行動。幾天之內，我們就制定了應對措施，包括與波音公司一起進行線上和到位檢查，這些檢查與航空公司為恢復服務而進行的檢查相同，並利用美國聯邦航空管理局的安全管理系統進行產品安全風險評估。

Incorporation of detailed review and observation with Boeing of the mid-entry door plug assembly and installation process to include both Spirit and Boeing operations. Concurrent with those immediate actions, we have initiated a second wave of actions centered on addressing human factors, nonconformities, product safety, and expanded inspections across 737 manufacturing. People are at the heart of the company and our manufacturing processes. A significant portion of the 737 fuselage build is manually performed by our skilled teammates.

與波音合作，對中部入口門插頭的組裝和安裝過程進行詳細的審查和觀察，涵蓋Spirit和波音的營運。在採取這些緊急行動的同時，我們啟動了第二輪行動，重點關注人為因素、不合格品、產品安全以及擴大737製造流程的檢驗範圍。人是公司和我們製造流程的核心。 737機身的很大一部分是由我們技術嫻熟的團隊成員手動完成的。

Repeatability, reliability and capability in manufacturing is required to produce high-quality conforming products. The human condition and human factors must be accounted for in any improvement efforts. And through that lens, we are focusing additional actions. The four main levers to mitigate human factors that we are pulling include proficiency of our mechanics and inspectors, compliance to our quality management system, mistake proofing and observation.

生產高品質、符合標準的產品，必須具備可重複性、可靠性和製造能力。任何改進工作都必須考慮人為因素和人為條件。為此，我們正在採取更多行動。我們正在採取的四個主要措施是降低人為因素的影響，包括提高機械師和檢驗員的熟練程度、遵守品質管理系統、防止錯誤以及觀察。

We will do more testing and training. We will drive greater discipline to the QMS. We will enable our teammates with better tools, techniques and technology that is available today. The goal of any world-class manufacturing company is perfection or 0 defects. We aspire to achieve perfection. Detecting, correcting and ultimately propending defects otherwise known as nonconformities is the basis for continuous improvement.

我們將進行更多測試和培訓。我們將加強品質管理系統的規範性。我們將為團隊成員提供當今可用的更先進的工具、技術和工藝。任何世界級製造公司的目標都是追求完美或零缺陷。我們渴望達到完美。檢測、修正並最終發現缺陷（也稱為不合格品）是持續改善的基礎。

We are expanding our efforts to integrate more with Boeing's QMS realigning organizationally to accelerate redesign and process reengineering and utilizing more advanced data analytics. We are also increasing the number of spirit performed inspections and Boeing performed inspections. And soon, we will integrate these efforts with those with the FAA and customers who have joined us here in Wichita.

我們正在加大力度，與波音公司的品質管理系統 (QMS) 進行更深入的整合，進行組織架構重組，以加快品質管理系統的重新設計和流程再造，並利用更先進的資料分析技術。我們也正在增加 Spirit 執行的檢查和波音執行的檢查數量。很快，我們將把這些工作與美國聯邦航空管理局 (FAA) 以及在威奇託加入我們的客戶的檢查整合在一起。

That is a brief summary of some of the systemic improvements in our second wave of collective actions. There are additional actions we are taking as well. The point is we are mobilized for implementation with detailed plans and fully aligned with Boeing. Our next wave of improvement will be the deployment of autonomation and automation for sections of the airplane that remain highly manual. That is the fundamental solution to zero defects and zero escapes.

以上是我們第二波集體行動中一些系統性改進的簡要總結。我們還在採取其他行動。重點是，我們已動員起來，制定了詳細的計劃，並與波音公司完全保持一致。我們的下一波改進將是為飛機中仍然高度依賴人工的部分部署自動化和自主化技術。這是實現零缺陷和零漏檢的根本解決方案。

On the 737 fuselage, the front and back sections have the most complex physical geometries and are the most confined workspaces. The build is largely manual. Our eye is towards finding the right balance of using human-assisted technology and automated technology. There is a path to deployment. Broadly speaking, full-scale robotics is impractical. In our research labs, we have significant human-assisted technology that is manufacturing readiness level 6 that we look to accelerate. I have recently reviewed this technology with the team and will ensure it receives the appropriate resources and investments. I am very proud of how our team has responded to this accident. They have been calm, focused and moving with urgency. I have a lot of confidence in this team.

在737機身中，前部和後部擁有最複雜的物理幾何形狀，也是最狹窄的工作空間。建造過程主要依靠人工。我們致力於在人工輔助技術和自動化技術之間找到適當的平衡。部署機器人技術是有途徑的。廣義上講，全面應用機器人技術是不切實際的。在我們的研究實驗室中，我們擁有重要的人工輔助技術，其製造就緒等級達到6級，我們希望加速其發展。我最近與團隊一起審查了這項技術，並將確保其獲得適當的資源和投資。我為團隊對此次事故的回應感到非常自豪。他們保持冷靜、專注，並迅速採取行動。我對這個團隊充滿信心。

At this point, the art form is to integrate broad actions with our ongoing operations and not as a one-off project. Our teams across manufacturing and engineering are fully aligned and will implement changes seamlessly. I believe we will move quickly because of our shift in governance away from being top down. The mindset shift is to understand that the airplane is the boss. The airplane tells us what to do. Our mechanics, sealers, engineers and inspectors are like surgeons. They tell us in management what they need to perform their operations.

目前，關鍵在於將廣泛的行動與我們正在進行的運營相結合，而不是將其作為一次性項目。我們製造和工程團隊已完全協調一致，並將無縫實施變革。我相信，由於我們的治理方式已不再是自上而下，我們將迅速採取行動。這種思維轉變意味著要理解飛機才是主人。飛機告訴我們該做什麼。我們的機械師、密封工、工程師和檢查員就像外科醫生一樣。他們透過管理階層告訴我們他們需要什麼來執行他們的手術。

Our goal is to give them what they need, when they need it and resolve issues or make improvements. Receptivity from our teammates across our facilities, shop floors and offices have been positive. I also appreciate their candor and telling me what's on their minds. I've heard from every corner of the factory in Wichita and from every shift, lots of energy, lots of ideas. This does not surprise me. Our workforce at Spirit has a clear understanding of the importance of their work.

我們的目標是在他們需要的時候提供他們所需的一切，解決問題或做出改進。我們工廠、車間和辦公室的同事們都積極回應。我也很欣賞他們的坦誠，願意告訴我他們的想法。我在威奇托工廠的每個角落、每個班次都聽到了他們的正面回饋，他們充滿活力，想法豐富。這並不讓我感到驚訝。 Spirit 的員工清楚地認識到他們工作的重要性。

That commitment is rooted in a long legacy we have in this industry. In the coming weeks, we will learn more from the regulators from their formal reporting and will respond with urgency and transparency. Now I'll shift to a couple of other topics I think you have on your mind as well. First, we made significant progress in the fourth quarter in stabilizing the 737 production line. We briefly paused the line to stabilize, which ultimately allowed us to deliver 104 fuselages, the highest quarterly total in 4 years.

這項承諾根植於我們在這個行業的悠久歷史。未來幾週，我們將從監管機構的正式報告中了解更多信息，並將以緊迫和透明的方式回應。現在，我想談談我認為各位也關心的幾個其他話題。首先，我們在第四季在穩定737生產線方面取得了重大進展。我們短暫暫停了生產線以保持穩定，最終使我們交付了104架機身，創下了四年來最高的季度產量。

We made investments during the quarter to recover schedule and buffer the production system which enabled us to start the year with a balanced factory. Second, we recognized additional forward losses on the A350 and A220 programs this quarter, which Mark will address in a moment. That said, we are working to not only improve these programs in our day-to-day operations, but also are engaged in discussions with Airbus to address the long-term financials.

我們在本季度進行了投資，以恢復進度並緩衝生產系統，這使我們能夠在年初擁有一個平衡的工廠。其次，我們在本季確認了A350和A220項目的額外遠期損失，馬克稍後會談到這一點。話雖如此，我們不僅正在努力在日常營運中改進這些項目，而且還在與空中巴士進行討論，以解決長期財務問題。

The negotiations with Airbus continue and have been productive. We hope to conclude by February, but we need to ensure all items are addressed. We are converging on operational and financial solutions. I appreciate the partnership and engagement by their leadership. This remains an important near-term priority for me. I'll now turn the call over to Mark to review with you our financial results.

與空中巴士的談判仍在繼續，且富有成效。我們希望在2月前完成談判，但我們需要確保所有問題都得到解決。我們正在就營運和財務解決方案進行溝通。我感謝空中巴士領導層的合作與投入。這仍然是我近期的一項重要優先事項。現在，我將把電話交給馬克，與大家一起回顧我們的財務表現。

Thanks, Pat, and good morning, everyone. We experienced significant pressures in 2023 due to production schedule volatility, supply chain constraints and ongoing inflation. Quality challenges and increased labor costs. This resulted in higher-than-anticipated costs throughout the year. However, we also accomplished some major milestones during the year including reaching a contractual resolution with our largest union, bringing, Pat on board to lead spirits recovery and executing a favorable agreement with our largest customer.

謝謝帕特，大家早安。 2023年，由於生產計畫波動、供應鏈受限以及持續的通貨膨脹，我們承受了巨大的壓力。品質挑戰和勞動成本上升，導致全年成本高於預期。然而，我們也在這一年取得了一些重要的里程碑，包括與我們最大的工會達成了合約解決方案，聘請帕特領導烈酒業務的恢復工作，以及與我們最大的客戶達成了一項有利的協議。

We also due to debt refinance and a capital raise, which strengthened our capital structure and increased production rates across many of our major programs. While we expect some of these pressures from 2023 to continue into 2024, we entered the year strongly focused on execution to stabilize and strengthen Spirit both operationally and financially. Given the latest news around the 737 MAX production rates in relation to the FAA approval as well as our ongoing negotiations with Airbus, we are not in a position to provide guidance at this time.

我們也得益於債務再融資和資本籌集，這增強了我們的資本結構，並提高了許多主要項目的生產力。雖然我們預計2023年的部分壓力將持續到2024年，但進入2024年，我們高度重視執行力，以穩定和增強Spirit的營運和財務實力。鑑於與美國聯邦航空管理局（FAA）批准相關的737 MAX生產力的最新消息，以及我們與空中巴士的持續談判，我們目前無法提供指引。

Now let me take you through the details of our fourth quarter financial results. Let's start on Slide 2. Revenues for the quarter were $1.8 billion, up 37% from the fourth quarter of 2022. This substantial increase year-over-year was primarily due to higher production on our commercial programs, increased defense and space and aftermarket segment revenues as well as the impacts from the previously disclosed Boeing MOA executed in October of 2023, which included favorable pricing adjustments on the 787 program.

現在，讓我向您詳細介紹我們第四季的財務表現。我們從第二張投影片開始。本季營收為18億美元，較2022年第四季成長37%。年比大幅成長主要得益於我們商用專案產量的提高、國防、航太和售後市場收入的成長，以及先前揭露的波音於2023年10月簽署的諒解備忘錄（MOA）的影響，其中包括對787專案進行有利的價格調整。

Overall, deliveries in the quarter increased 16% year-over-year. Now turning our attention to EPS. We reported earnings per share of positive $0.52 compared to negative $2.32 in the fourth quarter of 2022. Excluding certain items, adjusted EPS was $0.48 compared to negative $1.46 in the prior year. Operating margin was positive 11% compared to negative 11% in the same period of 2022, largely driven by the favorable impacts from our Boeing MOA.

整體而言，本季交付量年增16%。現在，我們將注意力轉向每股收益。我們報告的每股收益為正0.52美元，而2022年第四季為負2.32美元。扣除某些項目後，調整後每股收益為0.48美元，去年同期為負1.46美元。營業利益率為正11%，而2022年同期為負11%，這主要得益於我們與波音簽署的協議備忘錄（MOA）的正面影響。

As a result of the favorable pricing adjustments to the 787, we reversed $361 million of total liabilities during the fourth quarter, which included 787 forward loss reversals of $206 million, which favorably reduced cost of sales and reversal of 787 material right obligation of $155 million, which flowed through the income statement as an increase to revenue.

由於對 787 進行了有利的定價調整，我們在第四季度沖銷了 3.61 億美元的總負債，其中包括 2.06 億美元的 787 遠期虧損沖銷，這有利地降低了銷售成本，並沖銷了 1.55 億美元的 787 重大權利義務，這些交易作為收入的流動性增加了。

Fourth quarter net forward loss reversals totaled $34 million and unfavorable cumulative catch-up adjustments was $55 million. This compared to $114 million of forward losses and $59 million of unfavorable cumulative catch-up adjustments in the fourth quarter of 2022. The current quarter forward losses relate primarily to A350 and A220 programs and were driven by higher estimates of supply chain, labor and other costs. We also recorded net incremental forward losses for anticipated performance obligations beyond 2025 in the amount of approximately $30 million.

第四季淨遠期虧損沖銷總額為3,400萬美元，不利累計補補調整為5,500萬美元。相較之下，2022年第四季的遠期虧損為1.14億美元，不利累計補補調整為5,900萬美元。本季的遠期虧損主要與A350和A220項目有關，原因是供應鏈、人工和其他成本的預估上調。我們也記錄了2025年以後預期履約義務的淨增量遠期虧損，金額約3000萬美元。

The unfavorable cumulative catch-up adjustments relate primarily to 737 program, reflecting higher costs required to recover and stabilize the production system, which we have done in the fourth quarter. Now turning to free cash flow. Free cash flow for the quarter was positive $42 million compared to free cash flow usage of $66 million in the fourth quarter of 2022.

不利的累計補差調整主要與737項目有關，反映了恢復和穩定生產系統所需的更高成本，我們已經在第四季度完成了這項工作。現在談談自由現金流。本季自由現金流為正4,200萬美元，而2022年第四季的自由現金流使用量為6,600萬美元。

Fourth quarter free cash flow includes the previously disclosed funding of approximately $100 million received from Boeing per the terms of the MOA and tooling and capital through 2025 on both the 737 and 787 programs. In our effort to stabilize operations, we also made certain working capital investments and accelerated certain capital investments in the fourth quarter of 2023.

第四季的自由現金流包括先前揭露的根據協議備忘錄條款從波音獲得的約1億美元資金，以及截至2025年737和787項目的工裝和資本。為穩定運營，我們也在2023年第四季進行了部分營運資本投資，並加快了部分資本投資。

Now let's discuss our quarterly segment performance, starting with our commercial segment on Slide 3. In the fourth quarter of 2023 commercial revenues increased 43% over the same period 2022 due to higher production across all of our programs as well as favorable pricing from the 787 Boeing MOA. Quarterly operating margin increased to positive 17% compared to negative 8% in the prior year, primarily driven by a favorable change in estimates recorded in the current period.

現在，讓我們來討論一下我們各部門的季度業績，首先從幻燈片3上的商用飛機部門開始。 2023年第四季，商用飛機營收較2022年同期成長了43​​%，這得益於我們所有專案的產量提升，以及787波音MOA帶來的優惠定價。季度營業利潤率由上年同期的負8%增至正17%，這主要得益於本期錄得的預期利潤調整。

These changes in estimates, which I previously disclosed, included net forward loss reversals of $48 million and unfavorable cumulative catch-up adjustments of $51 million. In comparison to the fourth quarter of 2022, the segment recorded charges of $111 million of forward losses and $58 million of unfavorable cumulative catch-up adjustments.

我之前披露的這些估計變更包括4800萬美元的淨遠期虧損逆轉和5100萬美元的不利累計補足調整。與2022年第四季相比，該部門記錄了1.11億美元的遠期虧損和5,800萬美元的不利累計補足調整。

Now let's turn to Defense & Space segment on Slide 4. Defense & Space grew to $205 million, up 12% higher than the fourth quarter of last year, due to higher development program activity and increased KC-46 Tanker production. Operating margin for the quarter decreased to 2% compared to 11% in 2022, primarily due to higher unfavorable changes in estimates recorded in the period. The segment recorded forward losses of $13 million and unfavorable cumulative catch-up adjustments of $4 million compared to forward losses of $2 million in the fourth quarter of 2022. The forward losses were primarily driven by higher production cost estimates on the CH-53K program and unfavorable cumulative catch-up adjustments, which were primarily driven by the Boeing PA program.

現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 4 上的國防和航太部門。由於開發案活動的增加和 KC-46 加油機產量的增加，國防和航太部門的營收成長至 2.05 億美元，比去年第四季成長 12%。本季營業利潤率從 2022 年的 11% 下降至 2%，這主要是由於本季記錄的估計不利變化較大。該部門錄得遠期虧損 1,300 萬美元，不利的累計追趕調整為 400 萬美元，而 2022 年第四季的遠期虧損為 200 萬美元。遠期虧損主要是由於 CH-53K 計劃的生產成本估算增加以及不利的累積追趕調整，而這主要由波音 PA 計劃推動。

For our aftermarket results, let's turn to Slide 5. Aftermarket had a strong quarter with revenue of $91 million, up 24% compared to the fourth quarter of 2022, primarily due to higher spare parts sales. Aftermarket has continued to grow with global aircraft recovery and is on track to meet our plan for $500 million by 2025. Operating margin was strong for the quarter at 23% compared to 13% during the same period of 2022, primarily due to the absence of a onetime inventory adjustment charge recognized in the fourth quarter of 2022.

請參閱幻燈片5，了解售後市場業績。售後市場本季表現強勁，營收達9,100萬美元，較2022年第四季成長24%，主要得益於備件銷售額的成長。隨著全球飛機市場的復甦，售後市場持續成長，預計將實現2025年實現5億美元目標的目標。本季營業利潤率強勁，達到23%，而2022年同期為13%，這主要得益於2022年第四季未確認一次性庫存調整費用。

With that, let's now briefly touch on our full year results on Slide 6. 2023 revenue came in at $6 billion. That's up 20% year-over-year, driven by higher commercial production volumes as well as higher defense and space and aftermarket segment revenues. 2023 adjusted EPS decreased year-over-year primarily due to higher interest and other expenses, partially offset by improved operating income during the current year. Other expense for 2023 was $140 million compared to other expenses of $14 million in 2022, primarily due to higher noncash losses related to settlement accounting for our primary U.S. pension plan, foreign currency and sales of receivables recognized in 2023.

現在，讓我們簡單介紹一下投影片 6 上的全年業績。 2023 年的營收為 60 億美元。這比去年同期增長了 20%，這得益於商業產量的增加以及國防、航太和售後市場收入的增加。 2023 年調整後的每股盈餘較去年同期下降，主要原因是利息和其他費用增加，但部分被本年度營業收入的增加所抵銷。 2023 年的其他費用為 1.4 億美元，而 2022 年的其他費用為 1,400 萬美元，主要原因是與我們的主要美國退休金計劃的結算會計、外幣和 2023 年確認的應收帳款銷售相關的非現金損失增加。

Full year cash flow was a usage of $374 million compared to a use of 516 in 2022. Free cash flow usage was higher than we previously expected, primarily due to factory costs incurred in the quarter to recover schedule and stabilize operations, higher levels of inventory to support rate increases as well as increased CapEx spend related to the customer-funded capital and tooling received as part of the Boeing MOA.

全年現金流使用量為 3.74 億美元，而 2022 年為 5.16 億美元。自由現金流使用量高於我們先前的預期，主要原因是本季為恢復進度和穩定營運而產生的工廠成本、為支持價格上漲而增加的庫存水平，以及與作為波音 MOA 的一部分收到的客戶資助資本和工具相關的資本支出增加。

With that, let's now turn to cash and debt balances on Slide 7. We ended the year with $824 million of cash, which reflects the proceeds from the issuance of common stock and exchangeable senior notes during the fourth quarter of '23. We will use the if converted method regarding exchangeable notes, implications to EPS, which results in the shares being dilutive if there is positive net income. If net loss position, they would be anti-dilutive. We ended the year with $4.1 billion of debt. There are now no significant debt maturities until 2026. So with that, we will be happy to take your questions.

現在，讓我們來看看幻燈片7上的現金和債務餘額。我們截至年底的現金餘額為8.24億美元，這反映了2023年第四季發行普通股和可交換優先票據的收益。對於可交換票據，我們將使用「如果轉換」法來計算其對每股盈餘的影響，這意味著如果淨利潤為正，則股票具有稀釋性。如果淨虧損，則股票具有反稀釋性。截至年底，我們的債務餘額為41億美元。目前，在2026年之前沒有重大債務到期。因此，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) We have the first question on the phone line from Seth Seifman of JPMorgan.

（操作員指示）我們接到了摩根大通的 Seth Seifman 在電話中提出的第一個問題。

Pat, thanks very much for the comments at the beginning of the call. I guess maybe to level set a bit where 737 is right now, you talked about kind of stabilizing the factory in the fourth quarter. Does that mean stabilizing at a production of 38 a month? And if we took it as a given that it's up to the FAA now when that rate will move higher. But if we took it as a given that that's the rate for 2024 that Spirit is now in a place to produce at that rate through the year and that what we saw -- what we've read about over the past few weeks since the Alaska accident and specifically yesterday with the latest mis-drilling issues and Boeing's effort to cut down on traveled work. Do you still kind of consider the factory to be stabilized at 38 a month?

帕特，非常感謝您在電話會議開始時的評論。我想，也許為了稍微平衡一下737目前的產量，您提到了在第四季穩定工廠的產量。這是否意味著穩定在每月38架的產量？如果我們假設這是2024年的產量，那麼Spirit航空現在能夠以這個產量全年生產，而且我們看到——自阿拉斯加事故發生以來的過去幾週，特別是昨天最新的鑽探錯誤問題以及波音公司減少差旅工作的努力——我們看到了這一點。您仍然認為工廠的產量穩定在每月38架嗎？

Seth, I would tell you that we are cycling at 42 a month but building at 38 a month. And by that, I mean we have a production schedule that allows us to have buffer days, and it's our means of testing our ability to go up in rate. And that buffer -- those buffer days allow the factory to when we talk about stability, minimized traveled work, have everybody stay in position. So from that standpoint, we're in a good position, and we'll take our guidance from Boeing as to how to adjust our schedules if necessary.

塞斯，我想告訴你，我們每月循環生產42天，但每月建造38天。我的意思是，我們有一個允許我們留出緩衝日的生產計劃，這是我們測試提高生產力能力的手段。這些緩衝日——也就是我們所說的穩定性，能夠最大限度地減少出差工作，讓每個人都保持在原地。所以從這個角度來看，我們處於有利地位，並且我們將聽取波音公司的指導，以便在必要時調整我們的計劃。

Maybe I'll just address those 2 nonconforming holes, those are not a safety of flight issue, and just kind of characterize the normal process. Anytime there's a nonconformity, we basically scope and bound it. Engineering does a preliminary look to see if there's a safety of flight issue, then essentially, we communicate to the customers if there's any potential exposure, but we say, here's a heads up and then we do a detailed engineering analysis and work to get a final disposition and when we have a final disposition that we can determine and repair and from that a response.

我可能只想解決那兩個不合格的孔洞，它們不涉及飛行安全問題，只是正常流程的體現。只要出現不合格情況，我們基本上都會進行範圍界定和限制。工程部門會進行初步檢查，看看是否存在飛行安全問題，然後，如果存在任何潛在風險，我們會告知客戶，我們會說“這是一個警告”，然後進行詳細的工程分析，並努力得出最終處置方案。有了最終處置方案後，我們就可以確定、修復並據此做出回應。

And relative to these 2 holes, there is not a final engineering disposition. We expect that in the next 72 hours. Based on that, we'll determine what the repair might be and any impact associated with that. And then the follow-on is a root-cause corrective action.

關於這兩個洞，目前還沒有最終的工程處置方案。我們預計在接下來的72小時內會做出最終決定。在此基礎上，我們將確定需要修復的內容以及可能的影響。之後，我們將根據根本原因採取糾正措施。

Thank you. We now have David Strauss of Barclays. You may proceed with your question.

謝謝。現在請巴克萊銀行的David Strauss發言。您可以繼續提問。

Quick follow-up there. What is the status of the MAX buffer stock as it relates to you matching up with Boeing in terms of your production rate? And then on the Airbus side of things, the $5 million (inaudible) on the balance sheet. At this point, is that really all A220, A350 (inaudible) negotiations conclude with Airbus, should we expect to see a significant reversal there?

快點跟進。 MAX緩衝庫存的狀況如何？這關係到你們在生產力上與波音的匹配嗎？然後，空中巴士方面，資產負債表上還有500萬美元（聽不清楚）。目前，所有與空中巴士的A220、A350（聽不清楚）談判真的都結束了嗎？我們是否應該期待看到重大逆轉？

Sure. David, let me address your second comment in regards to the balance sheet and the forward loss reserves that we have, both short term and long term. I think we met -- we mentioned this on the last call as it relates to Boeing and the 787 program. We stated that we would be in a forward loss through '24, maybe slightly into the first quarter of 2025. So really the short-term forward loss is -- has some 787 in there as we come down our unit cost curves and drive that to cash flow positive in 2025 and then it would include the A350 as you indicated an A220 and a little bit on 67 and CH-53K, but I think you got it right.

當然。大衛，我想談談你關於資產負債表和我們持有的遠期虧損準備金（包括短期和長期）的第二點意見。我想我們在上次電話會議上提到過這個問題，因為它與波音和787項目有關。我們當時表示，到2024年，或可能到2025年第一季度，我們的遠期虧損將持續到2025年。所以，短期遠期虧損實際上包括一些787項目，因為我們的單位成本曲線會下降，並在2025年實現現金流為正。之後，它還會包括你提到的A350、A220、少量的67和CH-53K，但我認為你說得對。

Maybe just to answer the question about the buffer or what we refer to as the ship in place, there are 42 available units today to ship in place. We're taking a few extra days. So think of that as a delay on some of the deliveries to rented just to make sure we can complete all the inspections related to the mid-entry door plug as well as any known rework and doing -- conducting some additional inspections.

也許只是為了回答關於緩衝期（或我們所說的「到位出貨」）的問題，今天有42個單位可供到位出貨。我們額外花了幾天時間。所以，這可以理解為延遲部分交付給租賃公司，只是為了確保我們能夠完成與中門塞相關的所有檢查，以及任何已知的返工和一些額外的檢查。

We now have Jason Gursky of Citigroup.

現在我們請到花旗集團的 Jason Gursky。

Maybe a 2-part question. I apologize for that. Patrick, wonder if you can just -- to fix the problem, you have to understand exactly how you got here. So I was wondering if you could just from your perspective, describe a little bit about the conditions that led us to where we are today. It sounds like you've got a plan to fix something. I'm just kind of curious to get your input on how we got here.

這個問題可能分為兩個部分。對此我深表歉意。派崔克，我想知道你是否可以——為了解決這個問題，你必須確切地了解事情是如何發展到這個地步的。所以，我想知道你是否可以從你的角度，稍微描述一下導致我們今天處境的條件。聽起來你已經有計畫要解決問題了。我只是有點好奇，想知道你對我們是如何走到這一步的有什麼看法。

And then the second part of the question is, once we figure this all out, has anything kind of fundamentally changed on the types of rate breaks that you can do in the future? I know Boeing's got a master schedule out there. And historically, you guys have gone up 10%, 15% on different rate breaks and then hold for a bit before going back up again. So I'm just wondering, in the context of all of this, whether things have fundamentally changed in the industry or the industry's view on its ability to go up in rate and whether we go up slower than we have in the past?

問題的第二部分是，一旦我們弄清楚了這一切，未來你們可以採取的降價措施類型是否發生了根本性的變化？我知道波音公司有一個總體計劃。從歷史上看，你們在不同的降價措施上會提高10%、15%，然後再維持一段時間再提高。所以，我只是想知道，在所有這些背景下，行業情況是否發生了根本性的變化，或者行業對提高降價能力的看法是否發生了根本性的變化，以及我們的降價速度是否比過去更慢？

Yes, Jason, I think it's hard to go back and look at how we got here. I wish I had that history. But what I would tell you is the basic fundamentals around rate breaks haven't changed. Some of the dynamics around the supply chain have changed. I would offer that some of the work that Spirit has done in the fourth quarter to align the 2024 plan with Boeing's rate schedule has afforded us some more stability. We have used that time to improve the dynamics of the supply chain. We've seen a lot of improvement in the near term to support rate 42. As it relates to rate 47, we have line of sight on virtually all the issues.

是的，傑森，我覺得很難回頭看看我們是如何走到這一步的。真希望我也能有那樣的經驗。但我要告訴你的是，關於費率調整的基本原則並沒有改變。供應鏈的一些動態已經改變了。我想說，Spirit 在第四季度為使 2024 年計劃與波音的費率表保持一致所做的一些工作，為我們帶來了一些穩定性。我們利用這段時間來改善供應鏈的動態。我們看到短期內對 42 號費率的支援有了很大的改善。至於 47 號費率，我們幾乎對所有問題都瞭如指掌。

Five suppliers that we have to give special attention to. But at this point, the majority of the issues are related to raw material and labor availability. I think the hardest part of this industry is given its complexity and breadth, how do you judge? How quickly to go up in rate? In the case of the 737, it's been done before. So there's a playbook that parametrically says -- this is what you can do, but we have to adjust that for current events in the environment.

我們必須特別關註五家供應商。但目前，大多數問題都與原材料和勞動力供應有關。我認為，這個行業最困難的部分在於其複雜性和廣度，你如何判斷？提高生產力的速度要多快？就737而言，以前也發生過類似的事情。所以，有一個策略手冊，它以參數化的方式告訴你——這是你能做的，但我們必須根據當前的環境情況進行調整。

But I would say that the 2024 plan we laid out is -- incorporates the existing environment. And if there are any changes, we'll accommodate Boeing's direction.

但我想說，我們所製定的2024年計畫已經融入了現有環境。如果有任何變化，我們也會順應波音的方向。

Thank you. We now have Myles Walton of Wolf Research.

謝謝。現在請沃爾夫研究中心的邁爾斯·沃爾頓發言。

Pat, you're in a pretty unique position having been inside of Boeing with Vice President of Commercial Airplanes for time and now inside of Spirit. And I can sort of give the perspective, I think, of what if and the what-if is -- if Wichita, we're still part of Boeing with the -- signals with the Boeing quality, the QMS system have captured these quality escapes sooner? And if so, does that create industrial logic for some element of reabsorption? Or is the solution just a greater integration into Boeing's existing QMS?

派特，你的處境非常特殊，曾在波音公司擔任民用飛機副總裁，現在又加入了精神航空。我想，我可以給你一個假設，假設——如果我們仍然是波音公司的一部分，而波音公司的品質訊號，品質管理系統（QMS）能夠更早捕捉到這些品質漏洞，那會怎麼樣？如果是這樣，這是否為某種程度的重新吸收創造了工業邏輯？或者，解決方案只是將其更大程度地融入波音現有的品質管理系統？

I guess I would respond not so much to the hypothetical, but the fact that we're behaving as if we were part of Boeing and that the coordination and the integration you refer to is really taking place now. So if you sat in one of our meetings, you people took off their badges, you would not be able to tell which company they worked for. I think because of the trust that's been built recently, some of the feedback loops that existed in the past are being restored and that should allow us to even work better together.

我想，我不太會回應那些假設，而是要回應我們表現得像波音公司的一部分，而且你提到的協調和整合正在真正進行的事實。所以，如果你參加我們的會議，你們摘下徽章，你就看不出他們為哪家公司工作。我認為，由於最近建立的信任，過去存在的一些回饋循環正在恢復，這應該能讓我們更好地合作。

So just to clarify that, Pat, is that a change of behavior, the tightness of the feedback loop? Or is that a reflection of what's always been the case?

所以，帕特，我想澄清一下，這是否是一種行為上的改變，是反饋迴路的緊密性？還是說，這只是一直以來情況的反映？

I would -- I think as a result of the MOA and the shedding of the financial constraints, it opened up the aperture to really work more seamlessly together, and we're seeing that. And I think we're surprised every single day how much more quickly people are working shoulder to shoulder. So I think the MOA was a big change that allowed us to increase the integration between the 2 companies.

我認為——由於簽署了MOA並擺脫了財務限制，它為真正更加無縫協作打開了大門，我們也看到了這一點。而且，我們每天都會驚訝地發現，大家的合作速度如此之快。所以，我認為MOA是一個重大變革，它使我們能夠加强两個公司之間的整合。

We now have Sheila Kahyaoglu from Jefferies.

現在我們請到的是 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

Pat, if I could ask you in just its current state, how do we think about the 737 cash profile per ship set, just given potentially additional costs this year, how does that change with the rate break in '25 if the FAA does also limit you guys at 38% a cap? I'm not sure. And then into '26, the free cash flow per ship set, just given the step down?

帕特，我想問您一下，就目前的情況而言，考慮到今年可能出現的額外成本，我們如何看待每艘737飛機的現金流狀況？如果聯邦航空管理局（FAA）也把你們的上限限制在38%，那麼2025年的利率下調會帶來什麼改變？我不確定。那麼，考慮到利率下調，到2026年，每艘飛機的自由現金流狀況會如何？

Sheila, I'm just trying to think. Yes. No, no, no. I mean we obviously go up in rates, you can distribute the overhead more broadly. The fundamentals of the things that we're doing in terms of improving cash flow or cost reduction and a lot of that's through productivity or improvement in quality. So those things aren't going to change. We've built a plan around achieving support -- labor support, I'll say, cost that mirrors our performance in 2018. We're working to that regardless of a change in direction from Boeing. So that might dampen a bit.

希拉，我只是在思考。是的。不是，不是，不是。我的意思是，我們顯然會提高費率，這樣可以更廣泛地分攤管理費用。我們正在做的一些事情，例如改善現金流或降低成本，其中許多是透過提高生產力或品質來實現的。所以這些事情不會改變。我們已經制定了一項計劃，旨在實現支持——也就是勞動力支持，也就是成本支持，這與我們2018年的業績相符。無論波音公司的方向如何變化，我們都在努力實現這個目標。所以這可能會稍微降低一些。

Indirect costs, we're going after the same way, probably the one that wouldn't be affected by rate as working capital because we just need to optimize that to a much larger degree last year, we were anticipating being at a much higher rate. So there's a real opportunity there regardless of where the rates stabilize that. Mark, do you have any other comments?

間接成本，我們也會採取同樣的措施，可能不受利率影響的，例如營運資金，因為我們只需要在更大程度上優化它，去年我們預期利率會更高。所以，無論利率穩定在哪裡，這都是一個非常好的機會。馬克，你還有其他意見嗎？

No, I think you hit it, Pat. Obviously, Sheila, as you go up in rate, you get the leverage from the higher production rates from an absorption standpoint. But at the end of the day, I think the key here is as we look over the next couple of years, it's about operating the factories efficiently, leaning it out, working on flow, working on the items that Pat talked about and he's got the teams really rallied around that.

不，帕特，我覺得你說對了。希拉，顯然，隨著產能提升，從吸收率的角度來看，更高的生產力會帶來優勢。但歸根結底，我認為關鍵在於，展望未來幾年，關鍵在於高效運營工廠，精簡流程，優化流程，以及帕特提到的那些項目，他已經讓團隊真正團結起來了。

And so we're really excited over the next couple of years as we go up in rate to see that financial benefits of those production rates through the variety of actions that we're working on, including focusing on improving overall quality. So we do think over the next couple of years, we'll continue to drive our unit cost down and take advantage of the higher production rates.

因此，我們非常期待未來幾年隨著產量的提升，透過我們正在採取的一系列措施，包括專注於提升整體質量，我們能夠看到這些生產力帶來的經濟效益。因此，我們認為在未來幾年，我們將繼續降低單位成本，並充分利用更高的生產力。

Sheila, maybe just one add-on here. I think we have to think about the supply chain. I mean, I think that's the one that if we do change production rates, we have to figure out what do we do with the things that we've already ordered. How do we keep them healthy, so that as things get corrected, we can go back to building fuselages. So I think that would be the one we still need to sort through.

希拉，我補充一點。我認為我們必須考慮供應鏈。我的意思是，如果我們真的調整了生產率，我們必須弄清楚如何處理已經訂購的產品。如何保持它們的健康，以便在情況得到糾正後，我們可以重新開始製造機身。所以我認為這仍然是我們需要解決的問題。

And just to follow up, given the MAX is the biggest driver of your free cash flow, do you still expect -- do you expect free cash flow to be positive in '24 without giving any guidance.

再問一下，鑑於 MAX 是您自由現金流的最大驅動力，您是否仍預計 - 您是否預計 24 年的自由現金流將為正，而無需提供任何指導。

Sheila, let me just address that. I think what I would tell you is with the question marks around the production rate increases in front of us that we had previously planned in '24, the Airbus negotiations, and then just trying to assess what additional cost may come as it relates to quality and the regulatory oversight.

希拉，我來回答一下這個問題。我想告訴你的是，我們之前在2024年就計劃提高生產力，與空中巴士的談判，以及接下來與空中巴士的談判，都存在一些疑問，而且我們還在評估與品質和監管監督相關的額外成本。

As we said in our press release, we're just -- we're not in a position to talk about cash flow. We know that it's an important aspect of our business here, and I'm not trying to avoid the topic. We're working really hard to improve the overall business financially. But give us a little time to digest the current situation here. And in the coming months, we'll be able to give you the answers that you guys are looking for. But I think we need a little bit more certainty. There's -- there's still too much uncertainty here for us to really dial this in and give you a more direct and concrete answer.

正如我們在新聞稿中所說，我們現在不方便談論現金流。我們知道這是我們業務的一個重要方面，我無意迴避這個話題。我們正在努力改善整體財務狀況。但請給我們一點時間消化一下目前的狀況。在接下來的幾個月裡，我們將能夠提供你們想要的答案。但我認為我們需要更多的確定性。目前仍存在太多不確定性，我們無法真正深入了解情況，也無法給出更直接、更具體的答案。

So more to come. It's not now, but give us a little while, and we'll be able to address those questions.

未來還會有更多。現在還不是，但再給我們一點時間，我們就能解答這些問題了。

We now have Scott Deuschle from Deutsche Bank.

現在我們有請德意志銀行的 Scott Deuschle。

Pat, have you priced your content on B21 yet?

帕特，你已經為你在 B21 上的內容定價了嗎？

You say that one more time. This is on the LRIP.

你再說一次。這是在 LRIP 上。

The B21 kind of.

B21種。

Yes, have you priced your LRIP content on B21 yet?

是的，您已經在 B21 上為 LRIP 內容定價了嗎？

We have not.

我們沒有。

Okay. And then, Pat, can you clarify what the operating elements might be with respect to the Airbus negotiations? Are you referencing moving some work over to them? Or is this something else?

好的。帕特，您能否解釋一下與空中巴士談判的具體操作內容？您指的是把一些工作轉移給他們嗎？還是其他什麼？

Well, our focus has really been on price and the focus has really been on understanding between the 2 companies what is the right level of productivity that should be achieved that they're willing to pay for and what is costs were all aligned on that is real and needs to be reflected in the price. And our discussions to date have been in substantiating both of those. And along with that, aligning expectations around our performance on the 220 and the 350 in '24.

嗯，我們一直以來的重點是價格，重點在於兩家公司之間如何理解他們願意支付的、應該達到的、合適的生產力水平，以及雙方在哪些成本上達成了一致，哪些是實際的，哪些需要反映在價格上。迄今為止，我們的討論一直致力於證實這兩個面向。同時，我們也在協調我們對220和350在2024年的表現預期。

We now have Ken Herbert of RBC Capital Market.

現在我們請到的是加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的肯‧赫伯特 (Ken Herbert)。

Pat and Mark. I wanted to ask on inventory build. Can you comment on at which rate you're pulling say, MAX shipments from suppliers at and depending upon your schedules with Boeing on the MAX, how much inventory are you prepared to build? And maybe how much of a use of cash as working capital this year versus maybe visibility on how much of a savings it can be in the back half of the year?

帕特和馬克。我想問一下庫存增加的問題。您能否透露一下，比如說，你們從供應商採購 737 MAX 的速度是多少？根據你們與波音公司在 737 MAX 上的計劃安排，你們準備增加多少庫存？今年會使用多少現金作為營運資金，以及下半年可以節省多少成本？

Thanks, Ken. Let me take that one. I think Pat briefly mentioned it, as we move through 2023, we had expected to be at a higher rate at this point in time. We'd expect it to deliver more than we finished the year out at. And so we built inventory throughout the year and ordered inventory from our suppliers in anticipation of that. And that caused us to build inventory to help to support 42 a month.

謝謝，肯。我來回答這個問題。我記得帕特之前簡要地提到過，隨著2023年的到來，我們預計目前的產量會更高。我們預計交付量會比年底的產量更高。因此，我們全年都在建立庫存，並提前從供應商訂購庫存。這使得我們能夠建立庫存，以支援每月42輛的交付量。

We've also tactically here in the fourth quarter, built strategic buffers with critical components for our production system. So really, you saw throughout the year, almost a $300 million increase in inventory through 2023, and that was in anticipation of higher rates. As we move into 2024, and where our plans are at here. We're not going to have to make that sizable increase because we've got the suppliers tuned up to help support and produce and deliver at 42 aircrafts per month. So I would say that as we move into 2024, I would anticipate working capital the drag that we saw in 2023 to be released to a big degree.

我們在第四季也採取了策略性措施，利用關鍵零件為生產系統建立了戰略緩衝。所以，實際上，您全年都能看到，到2023年，庫存增加了近3億美元，這是基於對更高利率的預期。隨著我們邁入2024年，我們的計劃也已製定。我們不需要大幅增加庫存，因為我們已經與供應商進行了協調，以支援、生產和交付每月42架飛機。因此，我想說，隨著我們邁入2024年，我預計2023年看到的營運資金拖累將會得到很大程度的緩解。

And so I think in summary, suppliers are delivering to us at 42. Pat talked about what our factory cycling to. And so our goal here is to really optimize the working capital as we stabilize the factory, and we think that there's some work for us to go do there. And we think that as we move forward here, that will create a bit of a tailwind to our free cash flow.

總而言之，我認為供應商的供貨速度是42%。帕特談到了我們工廠的周期。因此，我們的目標是在穩定工廠的同時，真正優化營運資本，我們認為在這方面我們還有一些工作要做。我們認為，隨著我們在這方面的推進，這將對我們的自由現金流產生一些推動作用。

And maybe just to add on to what Mark is saying, there are discrete plans around how we're managing the suppliers and the buffer. So again, one of the things we ask them to do is protect the factory in terms of the critical jobs that need parts to maintain the build of the aircraft. And so in those critical areas, we've built buffer stock. There are also suppliers when we look at their history that are unpredictable. So those we will continue to work with, but we'll probably build some buffer stock.

補充一下馬克所說的，我們有一些關於如何管理供應商和緩衝庫存的獨立計劃。我們要求他們做的一件事就是在關鍵工序方面保護工廠，這些工序需要零件來維持飛機的運作。因此，在這些關鍵環節，我們建立了緩衝庫存。此外，從供應商的歷史記錄來看，有些供應商的狀況難以預測。因此，我們將繼續與這些供應商合作，但我們可能會建立一些緩衝庫存。

Then there are the highly reliable consistent suppliers where we need to maximize inventory turns and the teams are taking those bleeding down the inventory and trying to balance there, the suppliers build -- we don't want to turn them off and start them at the same time, we've got a kind of optimized way to get our inventory turns up. So it's a dance and the teams are able to do pulled 10 levers, whereas in the past, I think it was just one order all the parts. So I expect to see a real improvement in 2024.

然後是高度可靠且穩定的供應商，我們需要最大限度地提高庫存週轉率，團隊正在處理那些不斷減少庫存的供應商，並努力保持平衡。供應商正在建造——我們不想同時關閉和啟動它們，我們有一種優化的方法來提高庫存週轉率。所以這就像一場舞蹈，團隊能夠同時拉動10個槓桿，而在過去，我認為只需要一個訂單就能搞定所有零件。所以我預計2024年會看到真正的改善。

We now have Doug Harned of Bernstein.

現在我們請到的是伯恩斯坦公司的 Doug Harned。

When you talked about the process redesign, introducing automation as some of the things you're doing to deal with the quality escapes across the company. But I think of this on really 2 time scales, and that can be and some of those things can be longer term. But at the same time, you have issues that may already be in things that have been done, like the mis-drilled holes that came up over the weekend. There's a lot of concern that there could be another incident like the Alaska MAX 9 incident.

您剛剛談到流程重新設計，引入自動化，這是你們為解決全公司品質問題而採取的一些措施。但我認為這個問題實際上是從兩個時間尺度來考慮的，而且有些措施可能需要更長的時間才能解決。但同時，一些問題可能已經存在於已完成的工作中，例如週末發現的鑽孔錯誤。人們非常擔心可能會再次發生類似阿拉斯加 MAX 9 事件的事故。

How do you make sure that as you do the broader redesign, you can also identify any situations that might be an issue in things that have already been essentially produced?

您如何確保在進行更廣泛的重新設計時，還能發現在已經基本生產的產品中可能存在問題的任何問題？

Yes. No, good. Thank you for that question. And I remember in the last call, you asked me about just the overall quality and maybe we can expand into that. I think the short answer to that question is our quality management system really looks at product quality, the FA's safety management system looks at product safety.

是的。不，很好。謝謝你的提問。我記得上次電話會議中，你只問了我關於整體品質的問題，也許我們可以進一步探討。我認為這個問題的簡短答案是，我們的品質管理系統真正關注的是產品質量，而FA的安全管理系統關注的是產品安全。

So our first look at the 37 has been through the product safety lens. And maybe just in parallel, I think what you'll find is that there -- if we drew a Venn diagram, there would be a lot of overlap between the safety management, system risk assessment and feedback nonconformities for our QMS. But our first priority has been to look through the product safety lens. We have 4 discrete categories that we're evaluating. If you look at the installation plans that we have that direct how a 737 fuselage is built, there are 2,300. Through this lens of product safety, we've distilled it down to 200 that we're going through and doing a detailed examination to include observations of the mechanics and a review by our master mechanic of the build process.

因此，我們首先從產品安全的角度檢視了這37個項目。同時，我想你會發現——如果我們繪製維恩圖，我們的品質管理系統的安全管理、系統風險評估和回饋不合格項之間會有很多重疊。但我們的首要任務是從產品安全的角度來檢視。我們正在評估四個獨立的類別。如果你看一下我們指導737機身製造的安裝計劃，你會發現有2300個。從產品安全的角度，我們將其精簡到200個，並進行了詳細的檢查，包括對機械師的觀察以及由我們的機械師對製造過程的審核。

That's in parallel, I think, Doug, maybe to this broader question of what are you doing now about quality? And what are you doing long term? And the short answer for us at Spirit on quality is less manual, less interpretation and more inspections. Medium term and long term is more human-assisted equipment and technology, more automation. And when we think about, well, where is the focus, it's where most of the manual work is, it's in the forward and rear sections of the airplane.

道格，我想，這個問題可能與一個更廣泛的問題相關：你們現在在品質方面做了什麼？你們的長期計畫是什麼？對我們Spirit航空來說，關於品質的簡短答案是減少人工操作、減少解釋、增加檢查。中期和長期目標是增加人工輔助設備和技術，提高自動化程度。至於重點在哪裡，我們思考的是，大多數人工操作都在飛機的前部和後部。

If you are a mechanic working in there, you'd almost have to be a gymnast. So we're really looking at, well, how do we address the human factors as some of this other technology is bridging to be implemented. We're very focused in four areas. The first is proficiency. We got to test more, we got to train more. The second is compliance. And I always think of Bill Belicheck here is, do your job. So part of the compliance piece is people have to show up and do their job. I mean, we will help them do their job, but there's an element of they need to be committed to personal warranty.

如果你是在那裡工作的機械師，你幾乎得像個體操運動員。所以我們真正在思考的是，在其他一些技術即將落地實施之際，該如何解決人為因素的問題。我們非常關註四個方面。首先是熟練程度。我們必須進行更多測試，進行更多培訓。其次是合規性。我總是想起比爾貝利切克，他說的是「做好你的工作」。合規性的一部分是員工必須到崗並做好自己的工作。我的意思是，我們會幫助他們完成工作，但他們也需要對個人保固做出承諾。

The third is, there's a lot of things we can do to mistake-proof. The build of the aircraft. And probably the last one is observation. It's not just more inspections, but it's our team spending more time on the factory floor. So that's -- if you were to come here to our war room and look at our plans, you see that we're really trying to address human factors in the near term, prioritized by product safety.

第三，我們可以做很多事情來避免錯誤。比如飛機的製造。最後一點可能是觀察。這不僅僅是更多的檢查，而是我們的團隊在工廠車間投入了更多時間。所以——如果你來我們的作戰室看看我們的計劃，你會發現我們確實在努力在短期內解決人為因素問題，並將產品安全放在首位。

And if I can just quickly follow up. Is there a way to characterize where you are on this path? I mean, you've now had a chance to be much closer to this over the last few months. Is there a way to characterize when you feel like at least in the near term here, the issues, the escapes that we have seen that you've got a really solid handle on it and feel confident in what's being delivered, I guess.

我可以快速跟進嗎？您能描述一下您在這條道路上目前所處的位置嗎？我的意思是，在過去的幾個月裡，您已經有機會更接近目標了。您覺得至少在短期內，您覺得我們已經對這些問題和我們所看到的困境有了非常紮實的把握，並且對正在交付的成果充滿信心嗎？

Yes. I mean that's the question that I think we all wrestle with how can we predict the future? It's hard. I don't know how to predict it, but I -- some of the things that we just talked about it or the best way to do that. So it's here in short order, making real progress in making these things stick, I think, will give us the belt and suspenders confidence that we can mitigate this.

是的。我的意思是，我認為我們都在思考這個問題：如何預測未來？這很難。我不知道如何預測，但我——我們剛才談到的一些事情，或者說最好的預測方法。所以，在短期內，我認為在堅持這些目標方面取得真正的進展，將讓我們充滿信心，相信我們能夠緩解這種情況。

I'd say the other one is we've been working with Boeing to do more inspections and more inspections as though we weren't doing a lot of inspections. I think what we're doing a better job of is harmonizing our work together. So we're looking at it the same way, at the same time, all the time and trying to keep it here in Wichita. And these are -- some of them are our interpretation of fastener rider skin quality. But those -- when we're working together mitigate what ends up being found in rent in where it's much more disruptive to fix.

我想說的另一點是，我們一直在與波音合作，進行越來越多的檢查，就好像我們之前沒有做過很多檢查一樣。我認為我們做得更好的地方在於協調彼此的工作。所以我們會始終以相同的視角看待這個問題，並努力在威奇托保持這種狀態。其中一些是我們對緊固件騎手錶皮品質的解讀。但這些——當我們共同努力時，可以減輕最終在租金中發現的問題，因為租金的修復會更加麻煩。

We now have George Shapiro from Shapiro Research.

現在我們請到的是 Shapiro Research 的 George Shapiro。

Mark, if I look at the underlying margins that you've had in commercial, I mean you had 10.6% as the high in the first quarter, and you had relatively high 737 deliveries. But this quarter, you had the highest 737 deliveries and the margin was like 8.5%. Now is that just reflective of the extra work that you mentioned that you put into try and improve the production process in the quarter? And what would be kind of a normal look as we went forward on this?

馬克，如果我看一下你們商用飛機業務的基本利潤率，第一季你們的最高利潤率為10.6%，而且737的交付量也相對較高。但本季，你們的737交量最高，利潤率卻只有8.5%。這是否僅僅反映了你提到的你們在本季為改善生產流程而投入的額外工作？在我們推進這項工作的過程中，正常的利潤率應該是怎麼樣的？

George, I would say just that, I mean, it's hard to assess and state that the fourth quarter is kind of a normalized commercial margin. We entered the quarter in a very disruptive state behind schedule. Pat talked about, we did a pause in the fourth quarter. And so there was a lot of investment to stabilize the factory in the fourth quarter. And you saw that come through in the unfavorable cumulative catch-up.

喬治，我想說的是，很難評估並斷言第四季的商業利潤率已經恢復正常。我們進入本季時，進度非常落後，非常混亂。帕特提到，我們在第四季暫停了生產。因此，我們在第四季度投入了大量資金來穩定工廠。而你也看到了，這體現在不利的累積追趕效應。

We delivered the most deliveries that fuselages in the fourth quarter than we did in 4 years. So there was definitely a big cost investment to stabilize the 737 production system. And when we think about jobs behind schedule all of the operational metrics that we had as we exited the year we were in the best shape than we've been in a long, long time here. So I don't want to lean forward here and start talking about what the normal margins are, but they were definitely depressed as it relates to the investment we made to stabilize the operations.

我們第四季交付的機身數量是四年來最多的。因此，為了穩定737生產系統，我們投入了大量成本。考慮到進度落後的作業，以及我們年底時的所有營運指標，我們處於長期以來的最佳狀態。所以我不想在這裡談論正常的利潤率是多少，但考慮到我們為穩定營運所做的投資，利潤率確實很低。

And we did a lot of good work in the fourth quarter. Anything you want to cover, Pat, on top of that?

我們在第四節表現非常出色。帕特，除此之外，你還有什麼想說的嗎？

And in addition, it's not margins, but we also made working capital investments to also stabilize that factory and that put a little bit of pressure on cash, although your question wasn't about cash. It was more about the margins. But the goal here is once you have a stable factory, the financials will come with it, and that's what we're focused on.

此外，問題不在於利潤率，我們也進行了營運資本投資，以穩定工廠，這給現金帶來了一些壓力，雖然你的問題與現金無關。問題更多的是關於利潤率。但我們的目標是，一旦工廠穩定，財務狀況就會隨之好轉，而這正是我們關注的重點。

And one quick follow-up, Mark. The free cash flow that you missed in the quarter, I mean, certainly, it looks like $30 million or so was CapEx, and you enumerated a couple of other things. I would think that some of that is actually a benefit to 2024 because you won't be spending that much more on CapEx than what you spent this quarter. Is that a fair statement?

馬克，我再補充一個問題。您本季沒有記錄的自由現金流，我的意思是，看起來大概有3000萬美元左右是資本支出，您還列舉了其他一些項目。我認為其中一些實際上對2024年有利，因為您本季的資本支出不會比現在多太多。這樣說合理嗎？

That's right, George. We'll buy some of that back as we move into 2024, for sure, right? We as we think about stabilizing the operations and co-investing with Boeing, we did accelerate some of that CapEx to stabilize the system. And so as you said, some of that will come back as a benefit in 2024.

是的，喬治。到2024年，我們肯定會回購一部分，對吧？為了穩定營運並與波音公司共同投資，我們確實加快了部分資本支出，以穩定係統。正如你所說，其中一部分將在2024年作為收益回流。

We now have Gavin Parsons of UBS.

現在我們請到的是瑞銀的加文‧帕森斯 (Gavin Parsons)。

Maybe just following up on George's question there or on the end on cash flow. A lot of moving pieces in '23. I think besides the working capital, the pension closeout the MOA, the advances labor contract ratification. What are some of the other moving pieces? Or are there other onetime items we should keep an eye out for in '24 or is '24 a relatively clean year best we can tell?

也許只是繼續喬治的問題，或是最後關於現金流的問題。 2023年有很多變動因素。我認為除了營運資本、退休金結算、協議備忘錄和預付款勞動合約批准之外，還有哪些其他變動因素？或者，2024年還有哪些一次性專案值得我們關注？或者，2024年是否是一個相對乾淨的年份？

As you said, there was several onetime items, both good and bad in 2023. As we think about 2024, we are not anticipating significant one-offs as we stand here today. I think it's about just running the business. We talked about some of the opportunities to improve free cash flow and what are some of the tailwinds we're working hard. We talked about the operations, but we're also focused on indirect and overhead costs and the working capital side of things. But Gavin, I'm not aware of any of the sizable type items that we saw in 2023 coming back in 2024.

正如您所說，2023年有幾項一次性項目，有好有壞。展望2024年，我們預計目前不會出現重大的一次性項目。我認為這只是關乎業務運作。我們討論了一些改善自由現金流的機會，以及我們正在努力實現的一些有利因素。我們討論了運營，但我們也關注間接成本、間接成本以及營運資金方面。但是，加文，我並不清楚2023年出現的任何重大項目是否會在2024年再次出現。

We now have Noah Poponak from Goldman Sachs. You may proceed.

現在我們有請高盛的諾亞·波波納克發言。請繼續。

Pat and Mark, what's your latest thinking on your framework of where your free cash flow margin can go in the future, putting any specific (inaudible) just longer term at -- compared to history at equivalent volumes, right? You used to have a targeted range and then you've had a targeted range for when volumes are back at certain levels.

帕特和馬克，你們最近對未來自由現金流利潤率的框架有什麼想法？能否給出一些具體的（聽不清楚）長期目標——與歷史上同等交易量的情況相比，對嗎？你們以前會設定一個目標範圍，現在也會設定交易量回到某個水準時的目標範圍。

Is there any kind of new way you're thinking about that as you evaluate where pricing costs are shaking out -- and then I'm curious also to hear you talk about how you are going through the process of renegotiating pricing while your costs are such a moving target? Right? You're at low volumes where you sort of don't even know what the cost per unit is at higher volumes or double the volumes, right? So how are you factoring that in as you go through these customer pricing renegotiations?

在評估定價成本波動時，您有什麼新的想法嗎？另外，我也很好奇，想聽聽您談談在成本如此波動的情況下，您是如何進行重新定價的？對嗎？現在產量很低，您甚至不知道產量增加或產量翻倍時每單位成本是多少，對嗎？那麼，在與客戶重新談判價格時，您是如何考慮這些因素的呢？

Okay. Noah, let me address the second one first and I understand your point with fourth quarter here, we just took some additional forward losses, which will put pressure on unit costs as we move forward here. But we've been doing a lot of work as we think about the A220, A350 on our long-term unit costs. We've worked shoulder to shoulder with our customer as it relates to where we are now, what the learning curves look like, what benefits we'll get from optimizing the supply chain over the next 3 or 4 years.

好的。諾亞，我先來談第二個問題。我理解你關於第四季度的觀點，我們剛剛承受了一些額外的預期損失，這將對我們未來的單位成本造成壓力。但是，我們在考慮A220和A350的長期單位成本方面做了很多工作。我們與客戶並肩合作，探討目前的狀況、學習曲線如何，以及未來3到4年優化供應鏈將帶來哪些好處。

We've done a deep dive internally to assess that as best we can based on what we know now. And that is really the information that we're using as we enter the conversations with our customers and that's the best way that I would describe that on the Airbus side. As it relates to longer term...

我們內部進行了深入研究，根據目前掌握的信息，盡力評估了這一點。這些資訊正是我們在與客戶溝通時所用到的，也是我站在空中巴士角度對此進行描述的最佳方式。至於長期來看…

Maybe I'll just add on to that, Noah. When we think about like the 220, for example, a good portion of the cost reduction, which allows us to get to the right pricing level comes from a transfer of work. Many of the suppliers that we would transfer the work to, this is coming out the old Bombardier supply chain are going to Airbus suppliers. And we've jointly evaluated those costs, and Airbus has a significant history with those suppliers. So I feel confident in that cost basis. We also have a fairly good understanding of the cost and productivity curves for assembly, particularly in Belfast. And that's really 9% or 10% of the cost. But those learning curves hold true.

諾亞，我可能想補充一下。比方說，當我們考慮220型飛機時，很大一部分成本削減，也就是讓我們能夠達到合理定價水準的部分，都來自於工作轉移。許多我們原本打算將工作轉移給的供應商，也就是之前龐巴迪供應鏈中的供應商，現在都轉向了空中巴士的供應商。我們已經共同評估了這些成本，空中巴士與這些供應商有著長期的合作。所以我對這個成本基礎很有信心。我們也對組裝的成本和生產力曲線有相當好的了解，尤其是在貝爾法斯特。這實際上佔了成本的9%或10%。但這些學習曲線確實存在。

And I would just say on the 350, there's a history of a higher production. So that kind of holds as a baseline that we need to get back to, and then there's a normal adjustment for labor and raw material price increases. So I don't think there's -- with these increased rates that it really creates a different cost estimating basis that we're not familiar with.

我想說的是，350的產量歷史上一直較高。所以，這可以作為我們需要回歸的基準，然後根據勞動力和原材料價格的上漲進行正常的調整。所以，我認為，這些提高的產量不會真正創造出我們不熟悉的成本估算基礎。

Okay. That makes sense.

好的。這很有道理。

And then to address your first question around long term. I don't want to get into the prediction business. But when you think about what this business generated in the past, I think you're referencing the 7% to 9% margins and $500 million to $600 million worth of free cash flow in the future. As we go up to the higher rates that will obviously help from a revenue and a profitability and a cash flow standpoint, I think we can get back to those levels.

然後回答你關於長期的第一個問題。我不想談預測。但想想這項業務過去創造的業績，我想你指的是未來7%到9%的利潤率和5億到6億美元的自由現金流。隨著利率上升，這顯然會從收入、獲利能力和現金流的角度帶來幫助，我認為我們可以回到這些水平。

There are some headwinds as it relates to some of the inflationary pressures that we talked about before like the IM contract. But I think the single biggest item that we need to work on to help us drive back up to those cash flows because I think the business is going to drive it is we're carrying $4 billion of debt and $350 million, $325 million of cash interest.

我們之前談到的通膨壓力，例如IM合約，確實存在一些阻力。但我認為，為了幫助我們恢復現金流，我們需要努力解決的最大問題是，我們目前背負著40億美元的債務和3.5億至3.25億美元的現金利息，因為我認為業務將推動現金流回升。

So over the next couple of years, we need to take that positive cash flow, pay down debt. Not only will that help our leverage from a balance sheet standpoint, but it will get the cash interest drag off the books. And if we can drive that interest back down to our historical measures, we can get back to similar to levels that we've had in the past.

因此，在接下來的幾年裡，我們需要利用這筆正現金流來償還債務。這不僅能從資產負債表的角度提高我們的槓桿比率，還能消除現金利息帶來的帳面拖累。如果我們能將利息率降至歷史水平，就能恢復到與過去類似的水平。

Your next question comes from Robert Stallard of Vertical Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research 的 Robert Stallard。

Pat, I just wanted to follow up on a comment you made earlier that you said that Spirit personnel are acting as if they're now part of Boeing. I was wondering if this has any sort of impact on your relationship with Airbus in particular and perhaps to other customers?

派特，我只是想跟進你之前的評論，你說精神航空的員工現在表現得好像自己是波音公司的一部分。我想知道這是否會對你們與空中巴士的關係，尤其是對其他客戶的關係產生影響？

I don't think so. I guess the real difference is I know more people at Boeing than I do at Airbus, but I've quickly come to meet quite a few of the executive leadership through program reviews we've been doing on the $220 million and the $350 million. But my Rolodex isn't as great. But I'd say the interaction is just as positive and the transparency and the focus on driving improvement. I'll do a number of -- they use Google Meet, we Google meet. And the feedback I get is just as direct as the feedback I get from Boeing and working together effort is almost identical.

我不這麼認為。我想真正的差別在於我在波音認識的人比在空中巴士認識的多，但透過我們之前對2.2億美元和3.5億美元項目進行的評估，我很快就認識了不少高階主管。我的Rolodex（人脈）不太好。但我想說，雙方的互動同樣積極，透明度也很高，而且都專注於推動改善。我會做一些——他們用Google Meet，我們也用Google Meet。我得到的回饋和波音的回饋一樣直接，而且雙方的合作幾乎是一致的。

I mean, everybody tries to get the job done the right way. I think with Boeing, I just had a few more tricks in my bag just because of my familiarity with how to navigate their system. But the treatment and the behavior and working together Spirit out of (inaudible) is strong. And we just were able to get things done pretty well.

我的意思是，每個人都力求以正確的方式完成工作。我覺得在波音公司，我掌握了一些技巧，因為我很熟悉他們的系統。但他們的待遇、行為舉止以及團結協作的精神（聽不清楚）非常強大。我們能夠把事情做得相當好。

Your next question comes from Michael Ciarmoli of Truist Securities.

您的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Michael Ciarmoli。

Pat, lots of talk about quality. If the airplane is the boss, we got safety and quality are paramount. If I just -- maybe not to put you on the spot, but if I look at your proxy, and I guess you're going to file it next month, compensation incentives, looks like only 20% is tied to quality on annual cash comp, nothing tied to quality in the longer term. It seems like everything we're talking about here, cash generation revenue, EBIT margin, all tied to quality.

帕特，關於品質的討論太多了。如果飛機是老大，那麼安全和品質至關重要。如果我——或許不是想讓你為難，但我看了你的委託書——我猜你下個月就要提交了——薪酬激勵方面，看起來只有20%的年度現金薪酬與質量掛鉤，與長期質量沒有任何關聯。我們這裡討論的一切，現金創造收入、稅前利潤率，似乎都與品質掛鉤。

I mean, are you guys planning on changing compensation to drive some of this behavior towards more of a focus on quality.

我的意思是，你們是否計劃改變薪酬以推動某些行為更加重視品質。

It will be significantly different. And the heaviest weighting will be on quality. And right now, I'm really working to design it. So the system can't -- manipulation is probably too strong, but I want to make sure that it drives the right behaviors and we can measure true performance. I'll just do a shout out to Donna Anderson at T. Rowe Price, and she threw out the idea. You got to really look at the utility industry. We're in their quality metric, there's a significant penalty for an escape.

這將是截然不同的。其中最重要的考慮因素將是品質。目前，我正在努力設計它。這樣一來，系統就無法——操縱可能太強大，但我希望確保它能夠驅動正確的行為，並且我們能夠衡量真實的績效。我想向普信集團的唐娜安德森致敬，是她提出了這個想法。你必須認真研究一下公用事業產業。我們採用的是他們的品質指標，任何違規行為都會受到嚴厲的懲罰。

So we're really trying to look at how do we measure defect reduction, but also what if there's any type of escape. Only one wouldn't drive much in the metric, but it really should. So the answer to your question is we're changing it fundamentally, and we're now making sure that what we put in place works well and drives the right kind of behavior.

所以，我們真的在努力研究如何衡量缺陷減少，以及如果出現任何類型的逃脫該怎麼辦。只有一個缺陷對指標的影響不大，但確實應該如此。所以，你的問題的答案是，我們正在從根本上改變它，我們現在要確保我們實施的措施能夠有效運作，並推動正確的行為。

Thank you. Due to time, our final caller comes from Peter Arment of Robert W. Baird.

謝謝。由於時間關係，我們最後一位來電者是羅伯特·W·貝爾德公司的彼得·阿門特。

Yes, Mark, Pat. Maybe just a quick one. I mean is there a timing when you expect to price the B-21 LRIP? And then just, Mark, if you could just give a little more color on the CH-53K program. I know you mentioned some of the forward losses there. Just what -- any color in terms of the health of the program right now?

是的，馬克，帕特。我只想快速問一下。我的意思是，你們預計B-21遠端改善專案（LRIP）的定價時間是什麼時候？然後，馬克，能否再多介紹CH-53K計畫？我知道你們提到了一些前期損失。請問目前該計畫的健康狀況如何？

Why don't we switch? Why don't you answer the LRIP, I'll answer the 53.

我們換個方式吧？你不回答LRIP嗎？我回答53。

Absolutely. Yes. Thanks, Peter. On the B21, we expect in the back half of this year to complete the negotiations in regards to the initial LRIP on that program. We're on the tail end of the development side of the program, which is a cost-plus type arrangement and so we'll be able to report back more on that later in the year. And obviously, when we think about our customers, our goal here is to sign up for contracts that add value to our company. And so that's what our focus is going to be as we negotiate that contract later in the year.

當然。是的。謝謝，彼得。關於B21項目，我們預計在今年下半年完成該項目初始LRIP（低風險投資計畫）的談判。我們目前正處於該專案開發的尾聲，這是一種成本加成式的協議，因此我們將在今年稍後報告更多相關情況。當然，當我們考慮客戶時，我們的目標是簽訂能夠為公司增值的合約。因此，這將是我們在今年稍後談判該合約時的重點。

Yes, just maybe comment on the CH-53 program. We disappointed Stephanie Hill and our teammates at Lockheed Martin in '23. We're on track to turn that around in '24, and it personally consumes my time every week, so we can deliver not only deliver on the airframes we've committed to, but also get to a higher production rate that supports the needs of the Marine Corps.

是的，或許可以評論一下CH-53計畫。 23年，我們讓史蒂芬妮·希爾和洛克希德·馬丁的隊友們失望了。我們預計在24年扭轉局面，我個人每週都在為此努力，這樣我們不僅能按時交付承諾的飛機，還能提高生產力，滿足海軍陸戰隊的需求。

We have no further questions. And I would like to conclude the call here. Thank you all for joining and I can confirm the Spirit AeroSystems Fourth Quarter 2023 Conference Call has now concluded. And you may now disconnect your lines, and please enjoy the rest of your day.

我們沒有其他問題了。我想就此結束本次電話會議。感謝各位的參與，我可以確認，Spirit AeroSystems 2023 年第四季電話會議現已結束。現在您可以掛斷電話，享受接下來的一天。