Spirit AeroSystems Holdings Inc (SPR) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Spirit AeroSystems Holdings Inc. First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Jason, and I'll be the coordinator today. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the presentation over to Ryan Avey, Senior Director of Investor Relations and FP&A. Please proceed.

女士們先生們，早上好，歡迎來到 Spirit AeroSystems Holdings Inc. 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。我叫 Jason，今天我是協調員。 （操作員說明）我現在想將演示文稿轉交給投資者關係和 FP&A 高級總監 Ryan Avey。請繼續。

Thank you, Jason, and good morning, everyone. I'm Ryan Avey, and with me today are Spirit's President and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Gentile; and Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Mark Suchinski.

謝謝你，傑森，大家早上好。我是 Ryan Avey，今天和我在一起的還有 Spirit 的總裁兼首席執行官 Tom Gentile；高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Mark Suchinski。

Before we begin, I need to remind you that any projections or goals we may include in our discussion today are likely to involve risks, including those detailed in our earnings release and our SEC filings and in the forward-looking statement at the end of this web presentation. In addition, we refer you to our earnings release and presentation for disclosures and reconciliation of non-GAAP measures we use when discussing our results.

在我們開始之前，我需要提醒您，我們今天討論中可能包含的任何預測或目標都可能涉及風險，包括我們的收益發布和美國證券交易委員會備案文件以及本文末尾的前瞻性聲明中詳述的那些網絡演示。此外，我們建議您參閱我們的收益發布和演示文稿，以了解我們在討論結果時使用的非 GAAP 措施的披露和對賬。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to our Chief Executive Officer, Tom Gentile.

有了這個，我想把電話轉給我們的首席執行官 Tom Gentile。

Thank you, Ryan, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Spirit's first quarter results call. I want to begin today by providing an update to the quality issue with the Vertical Fin Attached Fittings, certain models of the 737 fuselage that Spirit builds. After identifying the issue, our top priority was to work with Boeing and the FAA for their confirmation that it was not an immediate safety of flight issue. Once we confirm this, we turned our attention to ensuring our ongoing production meets manufacturing standards. We have revised our assembly process in production, have restarted production and have resumed shipments of conforming fuselages to Boeing. We have identified the affected units located in Wichita, including units in Spirit work in process as well as Boeing owned inventory units in Wichita and have developed a repair.

謝謝你，瑞安，大家早上好。歡迎來到 Spirit 的第一季度業績電話會議。今天，我想首先更新垂直尾翼連接配件的質量問題，這是 Spirit 製造的 737 機身的某些型號。確定問題後，我們的首要任務是與波音公司和美國聯邦航空局合作，確認這不是直接的飛行安全問題。一旦我們確認這一點，我們就會將注意力轉向確保我們正在進行的生產符合製造標準。我們修改了生產中的組裝流程，重新開始生產，並恢復向波音公司運送符合要求的機身。我們已經確定位於威奇託的受影響裝置，包括 Spirit 在製品中的裝置以及波音在威奇托擁有的庫存裝置，並已展開維修工作。

Excluding units for China and other customers with no current delivery dates, this issue impacts 35 to 40 units in Wichita, about 60% of the total. We have completed repair on 4 units and our current assessment is that the repair work will be complete for units in Wichita by the end of July. The total impact for these repairs and the factory disruption it caused is $31 million, of which we booked $17 million in Q1. For your information, the repairs in Wichita are expected to average approximately $100,000 to $150,000 per unit. There will be some near-term impacts to our 737 deliveries in the second quarter due to rework and disruption in our factories. We are still targeting 2 production rate increases later this year to 38 airplanes per month in August and to 42 airplanes per month in October for the 737 program.

不包括當前沒有交貨日期的中國和其他客戶的單位，這個問題影響了威奇託的 35 到 40 個單位，約佔總數的 60%。我們已經完成了 4 台機組的維修，我們目前的評估是威奇托機組的維修工作將在 7 月底前完成。這些維修及其造成的工廠中斷的總影響為 3100 萬美元，其中我們在第一季度預訂了 1700 萬美元。供您參考，威奇託的維修費用預計平均約為每台 100,000 至 150,000 美元。由於我們工廠的返工和中斷，我們第二季度的 737 交付量將受到一些短期影響。對於 737 計劃，我們仍將今年晚些時候的生產率提高 2 次，在 8 月份達到每月 38 架飛機，在 10 月份達到每月 42 架飛機。

With the associated disruption, we now expect to deliver between 390 and 420, 737 fuselages in 2023. We are closely coordinating with Boeing to help minimize production schedule and delivery impacts, leveraging stored fuselages and new production. We appreciate the support Boeing has provided in working through this issue with us. Reinforcing the strong partnership that we have. We have worked with some of our customers to receive $280 million of cash advances to help support Spirit's near-term liquidity. As [Dave Calhoun], Boeing's CEO, mentioned in Boeing's earnings report, Boeing has agreed to provide Spirit with a cash advance of $180 million to help cover the short-term cash impact of fewer 737 deliveries in Q2.

由於相關的中斷，我們現在預計在 2023 年交付 390 到 420 架 737 架機身。我們正在與波音公司密切協調，以幫助最大限度地減少生產計劃和交付影響，利用存儲的機身和新的生產。我們感謝波音公司在與我們一起解決這個問題時提供的支持。加強我們之間的牢固夥伴關係。我們與我們的一些客戶合作獲得了 2.8 億美元的現金墊款，以幫助支持 Spirit 的近期流動性。正如波音公司首席執行官 [Dave Calhoun] 在波音公司的收益報告中提到的那樣，波音公司已同意向 Spirit 提供 1.8 億美元的現金預付款，以幫助彌補第二季度 737 交付量減少的短期現金影響。

The quality and safety of our products are very important to Spirit and our customers. Our employees understand and take great pride that the products we manufacture are enabling flights around the globe every single day. As part of our quality management system, we have processes in place to address issues like the Vertical Fin Attached Fittings, which we followed in this case. We also have an extensive root cause corrective action process and are implementing additional protocols to reinforce our quality systems to prevent similar occurrences in the future. We are committed to strengthening and continuously improving our safety and quality culture as a trusted partner to our customers. Mark will address our preliminary assessment of the financial impacts of the Vertical Fin Attached Fittings in his remarks.

我們產品的質量和安全對 Spirit 和我們的客戶來說非常重要。我們的員工理解並感到自豪，因為我們生產的產品每天都在支持全球各地的航班。作為我們質量管理體系的一部分，我們有適當的流程來解決垂直翅片連接配件等問題，我們在本案例中遵循了這些流程。我們還有一個廣泛的根本原因糾正措施流程，並正在實施額外的協議來加強我們的質量體系，以防止未來發生類似事件。作為客戶值得信賴的合作夥伴，我們致力於加強並不斷改進我們的安全和質量文化。馬克將在他的發言中談到我們對垂直翅片連接配件的財務影響的初步評估。

Now turning to our commercial business. We are encouraged by the continued strong growth in the return of air travel demand. Based on February results, global traffic is now at 85% of February 2019 levels, with domestic travel at 97% in international reaching 78%. Our backlog stands at $37 billion, which includes work packages on all commercial platforms in the Airbus and Boeing backlog. While the recovery of air traffic is progressing well toward the pre pandemic levels, we continue to face challenges associated with increasing production rates in terms of our supply chain and our factories. Overall, the health of our supply chain remains challenging and we continue to encounter shortages and one-off supplier issues that we must address as they arise.

現在轉向我們的商業業務。我們對航空旅行需求回歸的持續強勁增長感到鼓舞。根據 2 月份的結果，全球客流量目前為 2019 年 2 月水平的 85%，國內客流量為 97%，國際客流量為 78%。我們的積壓訂單為 370 億美元，其中包括空客和波音積壓訂單中所有商業平台的工作包。雖然空中交通正在朝著大流行前的水平順利恢復，但我們在供應鍊和工廠方面繼續面臨與提高生產率相關的挑戰。總的來說，我們供應鏈的健康狀況仍然充滿挑戰，我們繼續遇到短缺和一次性供應商問題，我們必須在它們出現時加以解決。

In the quarter, we recorded an $81 million forward loss on the A220 program, of which $46 million was for nonrecurring costs related to a distressed supplier. The remaining $35 million was driven by production schedule changes and foreign currency movements. One of our major focus areas remains execution within our factories and mitigating supply chain challenges to meet the upcoming production rate increases across multiple programs. We've made good progress in hiring and training new employees ahead of the planned 737 production rate increases later this year. We continue to expect ongoing supply chain challenges throughout the year, but do expect gradual improvement going into next year.

本季度，我們記錄了 A220 計劃的 8100 萬美元遠期虧損，其中 4600 萬美元是與陷入困境的供應商相關的非經常性成本。剩餘的 3500 萬美元是由生產計劃變更和外匯變動驅動的。我們的主要關注領域之一仍然是在我們的工廠內執行並減輕供應鏈挑戰，以滿足即將到來的跨多個項目的生產率增長。在計劃於今年晚些時候提高 737 生產率之前，我們在招聘和培訓新員工方面取得了良好進展。我們繼續預計全年供應鏈面臨持續挑戰，但確實預計明年會逐步改善。

In terms of expected deliveries on our other commercial programs this year, there is no change from what we discussed on our last earnings call of 40 to 45 ship sets on the 787 program and 60 ship sets on the A350 program. We continue to expect to deliver about 75 to 80, A220 units. For A320, we have received an updated production schedule from Airbus and now expected to deliver about 580 ship sets this year, about 85 fewer than we previously discussed last quarter.

就我們今年其他商業項目的預期交付量而言，與我們在上次財報電話會議上討論的 787 項目 40 至 45 架和 A350 項目 60 架沒有變化。我們繼續期望交付約 75 至 80 架 A220 飛機。對於 A320，我們已收到空客更新的生產計劃，現在預計今年將交付約 580 架，比我們之前討論的上個季度少約 85 架。

Now let's move on to our defense and aftermarket businesses. Our Defense & Space business continues to show strong top line growth up 19% this quarter compared to the first quarter of 2022. With the award decision on the future long-range assault aircraft FLRAA recently upheld, we look forward to supporting Textron and Bell as part of Team Valor on this important program for the U.S. Army. As a reminder, we first began work on the prototype for the FLRAA program nearly a decade ago and are excited to transition to the next phase of this program. This is another demonstration of Spirit's strong value proposition for military customers, including competitive cost manufacturing, with the application of commercial best practices and design build capabilities.

現在讓我們繼續我們的國防和售後市場業務。與 2022 年第一季度相比，我們的國防與航天業務本季度繼續保持強勁的收入增長 19%。隨著最近維持對未來遠程攻擊機 FLRAA 的授標決定，我們期待支持德事隆和貝爾，因為是 Team Valor 的一部分，參與了美國陸軍的這一重要計劃。提醒一下，我們大約十年前就開始研究 FLRAA 計劃的原型，並且很高興過渡到該計劃的下一階段。這是 Spirit 對軍事客戶的強大價值主張的又一次展示，包括具有競爭力的成本製造，以及商業最佳實踐和設計構建能力的應用。

We also announced an MOU with Skyworks Aeronautics to pursue support for Skyworks defense and commercial platforms in the U.K. and European markets. We will work collaboratively on detailed design activities to support Skyworks, a vertical takeoff and landing, high-speed and long-range aircraft. Our aftermarket business also produced strong revenue growth of 22% this quarter compared to the same period last year with solid operating margins of 20%. The aftermarket team is executing on our growth strategy, as highlighted by several recent agreements. We announced the signing of an exclusive cooperation agreement with Singapore's ST Engineering's commercial aerospace business to support customers in the Middle East with aircraft engine nacelle and MRO solutions.

我們還宣布了與 Skyworks Aeronautics 的諒解備忘錄，以在英國和歐洲市場尋求對 Skyworks 國防和商業平台的支持。我們將合作開展詳細設計活動，以支持垂直起降的高速遠程飛機 Skyworks。與去年同期相比，我們的售後市場業務本季度的收入也實現了 22% 的強勁增長，營業利潤率為 20%。正如最近的幾項協議所強調的那樣，售後市場團隊正在執行我們的增長戰略。我們宣布與新加坡 ST Engineering 的商業航空航天業務簽署獨家合作協議，為中東客戶提供飛機發動機短艙和 MRO 解決方案。

Additionally, we signed agreements with both Joramco and Jordan, and Aero technic in India to be Spirit's authorized repair center. Further expanding our strategy to be available locally for our global customers. I also want to mention our upcoming negotiations with the IAM Union here in Wichita. We appreciate our IAM colleagues' dedication and hard work, particularly over the pandemic as we continue to ramp our production lines as part of the aerospace recovery. Our primary objective is to reward our IAM colleagues with a fair and competitive contract as we meet the increased demand from our customers.

此外，我們還與 Joramco 和 Jordan 以及印度的 Aero technic 簽署了協議，成為 Spirit 的授權維修中心。進一步擴大我們的戰略，為我們的全球客戶提供本地服務。我還想提及我們即將在威奇託與 IAM 聯盟進行的談判。我們感謝 IAM 同事的奉獻精神和辛勤工作，特別是在大流行期間，我們繼續擴大生產線作為航空航天復甦的一部分。我們的主要目標是在滿足客戶不斷增長的需求時，以公平且有競爭力的合同獎勵我們的 IAM 同事。

I'll now turn the call over to Mark to take you through a few more details on our results. Mark?

我現在將電話轉給馬克，向您介紹我們結果的更多細節。標記？

Thanks, Tom, and good morning, everyone. I want to begin by discussing the financial impacts resulting from the Vertical Fin Attach Fitting issue that Tom addressed in his opening comments. We've performed a preliminary financial assessment of our production impacts and as a result, expect disruptions and rework within Spirits Wichita factory to negatively impact full year gross profit by approximately $31 million of which $17 million is reflected in the first quarter 2023 financial results. The rework costs on available units in Wichita is expected to average between $100,000 and $150,000 per unit, which is approximately $5 million of the total. We expect to incur future additional costs including those that our customer may assert to repair previously delivered units in their factory and warranty costs related to the affected 73 units in service. However, those remaining costs cannot be reasonably estimated at this time.

謝謝，湯姆，大家早上好。我想首先討論 Tom 在開場評論中提到的垂直翅片連接配件問題所產生的財務影響。我們已經對我們的生產影響進行了初步財務評估，因此預計 Spirits Wichita 工廠的中斷和返工將對全年毛利潤產生約 3100 萬美元的負面影響，其中 1700 萬美元反映在 2023 年第一季度的財務業績中。威奇托可用單位的返工成本預計平均為每單位 100,000 美元至 150,000 美元，約佔總成本的 500 萬美元。我們預計未來會產生額外費用，包括我們的客戶可能要求在其工廠維修之前交付的設備的費用，以及與受影響的 73 個正在使用的設備相關的保修費用。但是，目前無法合理估計這些剩餘成本。

The disruption of rework that will take place in Wichita will reduce near-term 737 production by about 30 to 40 units leading the full year 737 deliveries of about 390 and with the potential to make up additional units in the back half of the year. We will continue to evaluate the impacts on our financials. And as more information becomes available, we'll keep you updated.

威奇托工廠的返工中斷將使 737 的近期產量減少約 30 至 40 架，導致 737 的全年交付量約為 390 架，並有可能在今年下半年補充額外的產量。我們將繼續評估對我們財務的影響。隨著更多信息的出現，我們會及時通知您。

Now let me take you through the details of our first quarter financial results. So let's start on Slide 3. Revenue for the quarter was $1.4 billion, up 22% from the first quarter of 2022. This improvement was primarily due to higher production on the 737 program and increased aftermarket and defense and space revenue. Particularly -- or partially offset by lower production on the A220 program. The Defense & Space segment had a strong quarter with top line growth of 19% increasing revenue over the prior quarter by about $30 million. As we look at deliveries, overall narrow-body deliveries were 7% higher than the same period last year, driven by higher 737 deliveries partially offset by lower A220 and A320 units. Overall, 2022 deliveries increased 8% year-over-year.

現在讓我向您詳細介紹我們第一季度的財務業績。那麼讓我們從幻燈片 3 開始。本季度的收入為 14 億美元，比 2022 年第一季度增長 22%。這一改善主要是由於 737 項目的產量增加以及售後市場、國防和航天收入的增加。特別是 - 或部分被 A220 計劃的較低產量所抵消。國防與航天部門本季度表現強勁，營收增長 19%，收入比上一季度增加約 3000 萬美元。在我們查看交付量時，整體窄體機交付量比去年同期高出 7%，這主要是由於 737 交付量增加，部分被 A220 和 A320 交付量減少所抵消。總體而言，2022 年的交付量同比增長 8%。

Now let's turn our attention to EPS. We reported earnings per share of negative $2.68 compared to negative $0.51 in the first quarter of 2022. Excluding certain items, adjusted EPS was negative $1.69 and compared to $0.03 in the prior year. Operating margins was negative 7% compared to negative 4% in the prior period. The lower margin was driven by higher unfavorable changes in estimates in the absence of income related to the aviation manufacturing jobs protection program that was recognized in the first quarter of 2022, partially offset by higher production on the 737 program.

現在讓我們把注意力轉向 EPS。我們報告的每股收益為負 2.68 美元，而 2022 年第一季度為負 0.51 美元。不計入某些項目，調整後每股收益為負 1.69 美元，而去年同期為 0.03 美元。營業利潤率為負 7%，而上一時期為負 4%。較低的利潤率是由於在沒有與 2022 年第一季度確認的航空製造業就業保護計劃相關的收入的情況下，估計的不利變化增加，部分被 737 計劃的產量增加所抵消。

First quarter forward losses totaled $110 million and unfavorable cumulative catch-up adjustments were $12 million. This is compared to $24 million of forward losses and $26 million of unfavorable cumulative catch-up adjustments in the first quarter of 2022. The current quarter forward losses primarily relate to the A220 program and to a lesser extent, the A350 and 787 programs. The A220 loss of $81 million was driven by increased costs resulting from production schedule changes, foreign currency movement and $46 million of nonrecurring supply chain costs. The A350 charge of $18 million was a result of additional costs related to production schedule changes and the 787 forward losses of $8 million resulted from increased labor and supply chain.

第一季度遠期虧損總計 1.1 億美元，不利的累計追補調整為 1200 萬美元。相比之下，2022 年第一季度有 2400 萬美元的遠期虧損和 2600 萬美元的不利累計追趕調整。當前季度的遠期虧損主要與 A220 計劃有關，其次是 A350 和 787 計劃。 A220 損失 8100 萬美元，原因是生產計劃變更、外匯變動和 4600 萬美元的非經常性供應鏈成本導致成本增加。 A350 的 1800 萬美元費用是由於與生產計劃變更相關的額外成本，而 787 的 800 萬美元遠期損失是由於勞動力和供應鏈的增加。

Additionally, the unfavorable cum catch-up adjustment relate primarily to the 737 Vertical Fin Attach Fitting issue. Other expense was $117 million compared to other income of $38 million in the prior period. The higher expense was primarily due to the termination of our frozen U.S. pension plan which we initiated last year as well as higher foreign currency losses in this quarter. The pension expense totaled $101 million, including noncash termination charges of $65 million, as well as associated excise tax of $36 million. This should conclude the majority of the pretax charges associated with the termination of the plan.

此外，不利的追趕調整主要與 737 垂直尾翼連接裝置問題有關。其他費用為 1.17 億美元，而上一期間的其他收入為 3800 萬美元。費用增加主要是由於我們終止了去年啟動的凍結美國養老金計劃以及本季度外匯損失增加。養老金支出總計 1.01 億美元，包括 6500 萬美元的非現金離職費用，以及 3600 萬美元的相關消費稅。這應該包括與計劃終止相關的大部分稅前費用。

Now let's turn to free cash flow. Free cash flow usage for the quarter was $69 million. Cash usage improved by about $230 million compared to the same period of 2022, largely driven by $180 million of surplus cash received related to the termination of our pension plan. The associated excise tax payment of $36 million will be made during the second quarter of 2023. Higher 737 deliveries also provided a lift to cash flows in our first quarter. First quarter 2022 free cash flow included a quarterly repayment of $31 million related to the Boeing 737 advance received in 2019 and $14 million related to the jobs program grant. Consistent with prior years, first quarter free cash flow was negatively impacted by the seasonality of cash receipts related to the year-end holiday shutdown as well as employee-related benefits that we make in the first quarter.

現在讓我們轉向自由現金流。本季度的自由現金流使用量為 6900 萬美元。與 2022 年同期相比，現金使用量增加了約 2.3 億美元，這主要是由於與我們的養老金計劃終止相關的 1.8 億美元現金盈餘所致。 2023 年第二季度將繳納 3600 萬美元的相關消費稅。737 架交付量的增加也提振了我們第一季度的現金流。 2022 年第一季度的自由現金流包括與 2019 年收到的波音 737 預付款相關的 3100 萬美元季度還款以及與工作計劃補助金相關的 1400 萬美元。與往年一樣，第一季度自由現金流受到與年終假期停工相關的現金收入季節性以及我們在第一季度提供的員工相關福利的負面影響。

Looking ahead, the rework and disruption from the Vertical Fin Attach Fitting issue as well as the risk of lower 737 deliveries will have a negative impact on free cash flow this year. The forward losses taken during the quarter will also result in additional pressure in our cash flows. Given these headwinds, we now expect our full year free cash flow usage to be in the range of $100 million to $150 million negative. This range does not include the additional items I mentioned earlier related to the Vertical Fin Attach Fittings that can't be reasonably estimated at this time. Because we are in the very early stages of recovering from the 737 Vertical Fin Attach Fitting issue, we expect to further refine the impact to full year free cash flow as we progress through the rework and associated disruptions and return to normal production. The biggest impact to our free cash flow range will be dependent on our full year 737 deliveries.

展望未來，Vertical Fin Attach Fitting 問題導致的返工和中斷以及 737 交付量減少的風險將對今年的自由現金流產生負面影響。本季度的遠期虧損也將給我們的現金流帶來額外壓力。鑑於這些不利因素，我們現在預計我們全年的自由現金流使用量將在 1 億至 1.5 億美元的負範圍內。此範圍不包括我之前提到的與垂直翅片連接配件相關的其他項目，目前無法合理估計。由於我們正處於從 737 Vertical Fin Attach Fitting 問題中恢復的早期階段，我們預計隨著我們通過返工和相關中斷並恢復正常生產，進一步細化對全年自由現金流的影響。對我們的自由現金流範圍的最大影響將取決於我們全年的 737 交付量。

With that, let's now turn to our cash and debt balances on Slide 4. We ended the first quarter with $568 million of cash and $3.9 billion of debt. After the close of the first quarter, we entered into agreements with our customers to provide cash advances. And as a result, we expect to receive approximately $280 million of advances from customers of which $230 million will be received in the second quarter and $50 million in the fourth quarter. We plan to repay these cash advances to the tune of about $90 million in 2024 and the balance of $190 million in 2025. We expect these advances will be categorized as debt-like items on the balance sheet and reflected as cash from financing on the statement of cash flows.

有了這個，讓我們現在轉向幻燈片 4 上的現金和債務餘額。我們以 5.68 億美元的現金和 39 億美元的債務結束了第一季度。第一季度結束後，我們與客戶簽訂了提供現金墊款的協議。因此，我們預計將從客戶那裡收到大約 2.8 億美元的預付款，其中 2.3 億美元將在第二季度收到，5000 萬美元將在第四季度收到。我們計劃在 2024 年償還這些預付現金約 9000 萬美元，到 2025 年償還餘額 1.9 億美元。我們預計這些預付款將在資產負債表上歸類為類似債務的項目，並在報表中反映為融資現金現金流量。

Receiving these advances will help provide additional cushion, especially as we incur the near-term financial impacts from the disruption and rework of the affected 737 fuselages, potentially lower 737 deliveries while continuing to receive materials and inventory to support our own supply chain.

收到這些預付款將有助於提供額外的緩衝，尤其是當我們因受影響的 737 機身的中斷和返工而受到短期財務影響時，可能會降低 737 的交付量，同時繼續接收材料和庫存以支持我們自己的供應鏈。

Now let's discuss our Segment Performance, starting with the Commercial Segment on Slide 5. In the first quarter of 2023, commercial revenues increased 22% compared to '22, primarily due to higher production volumes on the 737 and 777 programs, partially offset by lower production on the A220. Operating margins was negative 4% compared to breakeven in the same quarter of '22, driven by higher unfavorable changes in estimates in the current period, including the Vertical Fin Attach Fitting issue as well as the absence of income related to the jobs protection program that was recognized in the first quarter of 2022 and partially offset by higher volumes on the 737.

現在讓我們從幻燈片 5 的商業部門開始討論我們的部門業績。在 2023 年第一季度，商業收入比 22 年增長了 22%，這主要是由於 737 和 777 項目的產量增加，部分被較低的產量所抵消在 A220 上生產。營業利潤率與 22 年同一季度的盈虧平衡相比為負 4%，這是由於本期估計的不利變化較多，包括垂直翅片連接配件問題以及與工作保護計劃相關的收入缺失在 2022 年第一季度得到認可，並被 737 的銷量增加部分抵消。

As I previously mentioned, the change in estimates during the first quarter included forward losses of $110 million and unfavorable cumulative catch-up adjustments of $11 million. In comparison, during the first quarter of 2022, the segment recorded charges of $26 million for both forward losses and unfavorable cumulative catch-up adjustments. Additionally, the segment recognized $28 million of income related to the jobs protection program in the same period of 2022.

正如我之前提到的，第一季度的估計變化包括 1.1 億美元的遠期虧損和 1100 萬美元的不利累積追趕調整。相比之下，在 2022 年第一季度，該部門因遠期損失和不利的累積追補調整而產生的費用為 2600 萬美元。此外，該部門在 2022 年同期確認了與工作保護計劃相關的 2800 萬美元收入。

Now let's turn to Defense & Space on Slide 6. Defense & Space revenue grew to $188 million in the quarter, were 19% higher than the same period last year due to higher development program activity and increased PA production. Operating margin for the year decreased to 10% and compared to 13% in 2022, primarily due to higher unfavorable changes in estimates in the current period and absence of income related to the jobs program received in the first quarter of 2022. The segment recorded excess capacity cost of $2 million and unfavorable cumulative catch-up adjustments of $1 million compared to excess capacity cost of $3 million and favorable forward loss reversal of $2 million in the first quarter of 2022.

現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 6 上的國防與航天。國防與航天收入在本季度增長至 1.88 億美元，比去年同期增長 19%，這歸因於更高的開發計劃活動和增加的 PA 產量。與 2022 年的 13% 相比，今年的營業利潤率下降至 10%，這主要是由於本期估計的不利變化較大以及沒有與 2022 年第一季度收到的工作計劃相關的收入。該部門錄得超額與 2022 年第一季度 300 萬美元的產能過剩成本和 200 萬美元的有利遠期虧損逆轉相比，200 萬美元的產能成本和 100 萬美元的不利累計追趕調整。

Our Aftermarket segments are shown on Slide 7. Aftermarket revenues were $95 million, up 22% compared to the first quarter of '22, primarily due to higher part spare part sales. Aftermarket growth continues to be strongly supported by the global recovery in air travel. Operating margin for the year -- for the quarter decreased to 20% and compared to 23% in 2022, primarily due to the absence of income related to the jobs protection program of $1.9 million that was recognized in the first quarter of 2022. Going forward, we were working very closely with Boeing to rework the affected 737 units. This will drive some near-term disruptions, but we've identified the process to rework the units in Wichita, and have started producing and delivering conforming units to Boeing. As a very important Tier 1 supplier supporting a large supply chain underneath us, we've been able to work with our customers to obtain some near-term liquidity relief and as we ramp back up towards our increased production rates in the back half of the year.

我們的售後市場部分顯示在幻燈片 7 上。售後市場收入為 9500 萬美元，比 22 年第一季度增長 22%，這主要是由於備件銷售額增加。售後市場的增長繼續受到全球航空旅行複甦的有力支持。本季度的營業利潤率下降至 20%，而 2022 年為 23%，這主要是由於缺少與 2022 年第一季度確認的 190 萬美元就業保護計劃相關的收入。展望未來，我們與波音公司密切合作，對受影響的 737 機型進行返工。這將在短期內造成一些中斷，但我們已經確定了在威奇託對這些裝置進行返工的流程，並已開始生產並向波音公司交付符合要求的裝置。作為一個非常重要的一級供應商，支持我們下面的大型供應鏈，我們已經能夠與我們的客戶合作，以獲得一些近期的流動性緩解，並且隨著我們在下半年恢復生產率的提高年。

Our primary focus in the second quarter is to complete the rework and stabilize the 737 production line in order to position ourselves for higher deliveries in the back half of the year as well as prepare for higher production rates in 2024 and 2025.

我們第二季度的主要重點是完成返工並穩定 737 生產線，以便為下半年更高的交付量做好準備，並為 2024 年和 2025 年更高的生產率做好準備。

Now let me turn it back over to Tom for some closing comments.

現在讓我把它轉回給 Tom 作一些結束評論。

Thanks, Mark. In summary, the recently identified 737 quality issue will drive near-term disruptions. But we have identified an inspection and repair process, and we know what we need to do to support our customers. Boeing has provided a lot of support during this time, and we appreciate the strong partnership that we have with them as we work through this issue. As part of our recovery, we will continue to strengthen our safety and quality processes so that we can support all of our customers as a trusted partner. It's also important to note that as we look over the next couple of years, we are feeling more confident in the increasing production rates driving revenue growth in commercial aerospace as well as our 2025 revenue targets in both Defense and Aftermarket.

謝謝，馬克。總之，最近發現的 737 質量問題將導致近期中斷。但是我們已經確定了檢查和維修流程，並且我們知道我們需要做什麼來支持我們的客戶。波音公司在此期間提供了大量支持，我們感謝在解決此問題時與他們建立的牢固合作夥伴關係。作為我們恢復的一部分，我們將繼續加強我們的安全和質量流程，以便我們能夠作為值得信賴的合作夥伴為所有客戶提供支持。同樣重要的是要注意，在我們展望未來幾年時，我們對推動商業航空航天收入增長的生產率提高以及我們在國防和售後市場的 2025 年收入目標更有信心。

We have a lot of embedded growth in front of us. And so our primary focus is simply execute on that growth day in and day out in our factories and our supply chain. There will no doubt continue to be ongoing challenges as we've experienced over the last few years, returning to those higher rates of production. But we are working hard to mitigate those challenges. We are supporting our supply chain when issues arise and increasing active infield support throughout our supply base. We are making increased investments in our employees by proactively hiring and training much earlier for production rate increases compared to previous years. These are important actions to enable higher rates of production in the future and help drive increased free cash flow generation over the next several years.

我們面前有很多嵌入式增長。因此，我們的主要重點只是在我們的工廠和供應鏈中日復一日地執行增長。毫無疑問，正如我們在過去幾年中經歷的那樣，將繼續面臨持續的挑戰，回到更高的生產率。但我們正在努力減輕這些挑戰。當出現問題時，我們會支持我們的供應鏈，並在我們的整個供應基地增加積極的現場支持。與往年相比，我們通過更早地積極招聘和培訓員工來增加對員工的投資，以提高生產率。這些都是重要的行動，可以在未來實現更高的生產率，並有助於在未來幾年推動增加自由現金流的產生。

With that, we will be happy to take your questions.

這樣，我們將很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Seth Seifman with JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Seth Seifman。

I wonder if I could. I wonder if I could dive into the new cash flow target a little bit. The outflow. I think you mentioned of $100 million to $150 million. Does that include the $280 million of advances?

我想知道我是否可以。我想知道我是否可以深入探討新的現金流量目標。流出。我想你提到了 1 億到 1.5 億美元。這是否包括 2.8 億美元的預付款？

No, Seth. It doesn't. What I -- in my opening comments, the advances are going to be treated as debt like and they will be reflected in the financing section of our cash flow statement. So they will not be treated as cash flow from operations. From an accounting perspective, since those are not tied to any performance obligations, they won't be treated as in the cash flow statement that will be treated as financing and will be paid back in the same manner in 2024 and 2025.

不，賽斯。它沒有。我——在我的開場評論中，預付款將被視為債務，它們將反映在我們現金流量表的融資部分。因此，它們不會被視為運營現金流。從會計的角度來看，由於這些不與任何履約義務掛鉤，因此不會像在現金流量表中那樣被視為融資，並將在 2024 年和 2025 年以同樣的方式償還。

Okay. Okay. Got it. And then maybe just something a little more substantive. Tom, can you talk a little bit about how you can address the contracts on the defense side of the business to make sure that you have significant opportunities on B-21 and on FLRAA, but just to make sure that the company winds up with contracts that are profitable and not kind of in a place like where we are with the 220 and the 87 and the 350.

好的。好的。知道了。然後也許只是一些更實質性的東西。湯姆，你能談談你如何處理企業防禦方面的合同，以確保你在 B-21 和 FLRAA 上有重要的機會，但只是為了確保公司結束合同這是有利可圖的，而不是像我們使用 220、87 和 350 那樣的地方。

Right. Well, the contracts that we have with our defense programs are typical defense contracts. And in many cases, for example, on the B-21, they're currently cost-plus contracts. Now they'll convert in the future when we get into low rate initial production to fixed-price contracts. But by then, we'll have a lot of experience so that we can make sure that those contracts will be profitable as we go forward. It will be a similar situation on the FLRAA contract with Textron and Bell is starting off as a cost plus and then converting over time to fixed rate.

正確的。好吧，我們與國防項目簽訂的合同是典型的國防合同。在許多情況下，例如，在 B-21 上，它們目前是成本加成合同。現在，當我們進入低利率初始生產時，他們將在未來轉換為固定價格合同。但到那時，我們將擁有豐富的經驗，這樣我們就可以確保這些合同在我們前進的過程中能夠盈利。與 Textron 和 Bell 簽訂的 FLRAA 合同也將出現類似情況，Bell 開始是作為成本加成，然後隨著時間的推移轉換為固定費率。

But you're absolutely right. We need to ensure that when we do get to the fixed contract portion that we understand what the total costs are and price it accordingly.

但你是絕對正確的。我們需要確保當我們到達固定合同部分時，我們了解總成本是多少並相應地定價。

Our next question is from Ken Herbert with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC 資本市場的 Ken Herbert。

Tom and Mark, I wanted to see -- thanks for all the detail regarding the costs associated with the rework of the aircraft and which is on the MAX. But can you talk at least maybe qualitatively how the work differs for the aircraft, either at your customer or out in service. If you don't have a good understanding today of the costs associated with that, how maybe just does the physical work or timing around that work vary compared to what you're doing, obviously, in Wichita?

Tom 和 Mark，我想看看——感謝所有關於飛機返工相關成本的詳細信息，這些細節在 MAX 上。但是您能否至少從質量上談談飛機的工作有何不同，無論是在您的客戶處還是在服役中。如果你今天對與之相關的成本沒有很好的了解，那麼與你在威奇託所做的相比，體力勞動或圍繞這項工作的時間安排有何不同？

Right. Well, Ken, the work for the repair is similar in terms of the approach and how it gets done. What's different is that when we do the rework, we're working on a fuselage and Boeing will be working on an aircraft that's further in the production system or even a completed aircraft because they do have completed aircraft. And so the rework for them involves removing some structures to get access to the area where the fitting ultimately will need to be replaced and also potentially moving around some systems. And so that's the difference.

正確的。好吧，肯，修復工作在方法和完成方式上是相似的。不同的是，當我們進行返工時，我們正在研究機身，而波音公司將在生產系統中更進一步的飛機上工作，甚至是完成的飛機，因為他們確實已經完成了飛機。因此，他們的返工涉及移除一些結構以進入最終需要更換配件的區域，並且還可能在某些系統周圍移動。這就是區別。

But the repair itself is the exact same. It's just that they'll have to remove a few more structures and also some systems before they get access to the area where they need to replace the fitting and then to replace those after the replacement is done.

但修復本身是完全一樣的。只是他們必須先拆除一些結構和一些系統，然後才能進入需要更換配件的區域，然後在更換完成後更換這些配件。

And is the repair work itself done? Is that something you have to do in Wichita? Or could that be done where the aircraft is?

維修工作本身完成了嗎？這是你必須在威奇托做的事情嗎？或者可以在飛機所在的地方完成嗎？

It can be done where the aircraft is. We'll do the units that are in Wichita. We will repair those in Wichita. The units that are in Boeing's factory, they'll repair and the units that they have in storage, they will repair. It's important to note, though, that the units that are out in the fleet will be treated differently. Right now, the FAA and Boeing have determined it's not immediate safety of flight issue, and so what will happen is there'll be a disposition to determine what the inspection frequency needs to be. And when you do the inspection, if a defect is observed, then there'll be a replacement. But it really is determined by what the inspection frequency is, and that disposition has not yet been made.

它可以在飛機所在的地方完成。我們會做威奇託的單位。我們將修理威奇託的那些。波音工廠中的設備，他們會修理，而他們存放的設備，他們會修理。不過，重要的是要注意，艦隊中的單位將受到不同的對待。現在，美國聯邦航空局和波音公司已經確定這不是直接的飛行安全問題，因此將會發生的事情是決定需要什麼檢查頻率。當你進行檢查時，如果發現缺陷，就會進行更換。但實際上是由檢查頻率決定的，目前還沒有做出這樣的處理。

Our next question comes from Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

And think you lot to dig into this quarter, but maybe I want to focus on the A220 if that's okay, given the forward losses of $81 million in the quarter and not much of a real production schedule change there. So can you maybe talk to us about any of the nonrecurring supply chain cost there? How does this shift expectations on when this program starts to generate cash?

並且認為你很想深入研究本季度，但如果可以的話，也許我想專注於 A220，因為本季度的遠期虧損為 8100 萬美元，而且那裡的實際生產計劃變化不大。那麼，您能否與我們談談那裡的任何非經常性供應鏈成本？這如何改變對該計劃何時開始產生現金的預期？

Right. Well, the -- the majority of the forward losses we mentioned was due to a distressed supplier. We stepped in and had to resolve the situation, and it involved a lot of nonrecurring costs. That was the primary driver. There were some schedule changes as we looked in the out years compared to what we had in the plan. That helped drive some of the additional forward loss, and then there were some foreign exchange issues as well. So that's what drove it.

正確的。好吧，我們提到的大部分遠期損失是由於一家陷入困境的供應商造成的。我們介入並不得不解決這個問題，這涉及到很多非經常性成本。那是主要的驅動力。與我們的計劃相比，我們在未來幾年看到了一些時間表變化。這有助於推動一些額外的遠期損失，然後還有一些外匯問題。這就是推動它的原因。

In terms of the go forward, what we've seen on the 220 program, it's a great program. Ultimately, it's going to be very profitable for Spirit, but we have seen the schedule slide to the right. And so right now, the way it works out is we're seeing fewer units coming out right now and in the period of time that we had through our forward loss calculation that we initially made when we completed the purchase accounting. And so that's what's creating the forward loss.

就前進而言，我們在 220 計劃中看到的，這是一個很棒的計劃。最終，Spirit 將非常有利可圖，但我們已經看到時間表向右滑動。所以現在，它的工作方式是我們看到現在和我們在完成採購會計時最初進行的遠期損失計算所擁有的時間段內出現的單位更少。這就是造成遠期損失的原因。

Yes. Sheila, let me just jump in real quick because I think the $46 million is a large component of this. But the A220 program isn't forward loss and that forward loss is projected out through 2025. And so maybe to help you understand this a little better, there's a big component of kind of onetime payments that we're making to the supplier in '23, '24 and '25. And so the real cash impact and cost impact is spread out over the next several years. But because we're in a forward loss program, we've got to book 100% of that forward loss right now.

是的。 Sheila，讓我快速插話，因為我認為 4600 萬美元是其中的很大一部分。但是 A220 計劃不是遠期損失，而且該遠期損失預計會持續到 2025 年。因此，也許為了幫助您更好地理解這一點，我們在“ 23、24 和 25。因此，真正的現金影響和成本影響將在未來幾年內展開。但是因為我們在一個遠期損失計劃中，我們現在必須預訂 100% 的遠期損失。

Got it. That's great color. And then I wanted to follow up on Seth's question, if that's okay. Just to understand contracts such as B-21 and V-280 on FLRAA. How do we think about you guys mitigating risk. Do you currently have contracts signed with the OEM there? And are they cost plus? And when do they kind of go into fixed price phases?

知道了。那是很棒的顏色。然後我想跟進賽斯的問題，如果可以的話。只是為了了解 FLRAA 上的 B-21 和 V-280 等合同。我們如何看待你們降低風險。您目前是否與那裡的 OEM 簽訂了合同？他們是成本加成嗎？他們什麼時候進入固定價格階段？

Right. Well, with B-21, yes, we do have a contract. And currently, it's cost plus and it will shift into fixed price when it gets into low rate initial production, and that will be some point in the future. Right now, we're still in the engineering manufacturing development phase. With Textron and Bell on the FLRAA program, the final contracts are in development right now and all of those considerations, of course, are going to be taken into account. It will start off more as a cost plus and then shift into a fixed price as we get into low rate initial production.

正確的。好吧，對於 B-21，是的，我們確實有合同。目前，它是成本加成，當它進入低利率初始生產時，它將轉變為固定價格，這將是未來的某個時刻。目前，我們仍處於工程製造開發階段。隨著 Textron 和 Bell 參與 FLRAA 計劃，最終合同目前正在製定中，當然，所有這些考慮因素都將被考慮在內。它將更多地作為成本加成開始，然後隨著我們進入低利率初始生產而轉變為固定價格。

Our next question is from David Strauss with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的大衛施特勞斯。

Tom, when you say that you are now delivering clean MAX units, Boeing. Can you define what that means? Does that mean you're actually shipping to Boeing? Or are you just effectively delivering to Boeing by completing a unit and then sticking in your own WIP, and then we'll ship the (inaudible). I was under the impression that you would have to fix your WIP units before you would start shipping the Boeing directly again off the line.

湯姆，當你說你現在正在交付乾淨的 MAX 裝置時，波音。你能定義這意味著什麼嗎？這是否意味著您實際上要運送到波音公司？或者您只是通過完成一個單元然後堅持您自己的 WIP 來有效地交付給波音公司，然後我們將發貨（聽不清）。我的印像是，您必須先修復您的 WIP 單元，然後才能再次直接下線運送波音。

Yes. Well, David, we're doing both. We're shipping units to Boeing, and we're completing units, conforming units and putting them into a ship in place. In fact, I would say the ship in place that we have here in Wichita, the Boeing owned inventory in Wichita has been helping us deliver units to Boeing while the factory recovers. So for example, right now, we have about 65 units in Wichita, 35 of those are not available for current delivery because they're destined for customers that aren't taking delivery right now like China, for example. But 30 of the units are available, of those, 19 do require repairs, but 11 were available to deliver. And we are producing new units, which are supplementing that.

是的。好吧，大衛，我們都在做。我們正在向波音公司運送設備，我們正在完成設備、合格設備並將它們放入船中。事實上，我想說的是，我們在威奇托擁有的這艘船，波音公司在威奇托擁有的庫存一直在幫助我們在工廠恢復期間向波音公司交付設備。因此，例如，現在，我們在威奇託有大約 65 個單位，其中 35 個不能用於當前交付，因為它們的目的地是像中國這樣現在不接受交付的客戶。但是有 30 台可用，其中 19 台確實需要維修，但有 11 台可以交付。我們正在生產新的裝置，以補充這一點。

So that's how we've been supplementing Boeing -- deliveries to Boeing in the short term is taking units that are not -- with no defects out of the stored units and also producing new conforming units. And those 19 units that do require repair that are in ship in place here in Wichita we expect the repairs for those to be done by the end of July.

所以這就是我們一直在補充波音的方式——短期內向波音交付的是不存在的單元——從存儲的單元中沒有缺陷，並且還生產新的合格單元。那些確實需要維修的 19 台設備已在威奇托運到位，我們預計這些設備的維修工作將在 7 月底完成。

Yes, David, we're really doing 3 things here. We're -- so David, we're producing -- we're now producing good units, conforming units, at the same time, we're repairing or reworking units that were in our WIP, work in process when this issue happened. And we're also working to rework the ship in place units, and we're doing all 3 items within our factory. We set up a separate call it, a rework factory within our factory so that we can restart production and start producing new units. So we're really attempting here in the second quarter to do all 3 of those to support our customer.

是的，大衛，我們真的在這裡做了三件事。我們 - 所以大衛，我們正在生產 - 我們現在正在生產良好的單元，符合要求的單元，與此同時，我們正在修理或返工 WIP 中的單元，發生此問題時正在進行中.我們也在努力返工船舶就地單位，我們正在我們的工廠內完成所有 3 項工作。我們在工廠內設立了一個單獨的返工工廠，這樣我們就可以重新開始生產並開始生產新產品。所以我們真的在第二季度在這裡嘗試做所有這三件事來支持我們的客戶。

Yes. And just to give you the information, in our work in process, there were 19 units that needed to be repaired. So we've already completed 3 of those. We have 16 to go. And then as I just mentioned, we had 19 units that were in the stored inventory that needed to repair. We have started repair on 4 of those, and the first 2 will complete today.

是的。順便說一下，在我們進行中的工作中，有 19 台設備需要維修。所以我們已經完成了其中的 3 個。我們還有 16 個要走。然後正如我剛才提到的，我們有 19 個單元在庫存中需要維修。我們已經開始修復其中的 4 個，前兩個將於今天完成。

Great. That's great color. As a quick follow-up on A320, pretty significant reduction there. I mean that implies that your -- you're delivering at below 50 a month kind of stated rate out of Airbus. Can you -- I know you're typically ahead by probably 3 to 6 months. Can you give any color around that reduction?

偉大的。那是很棒的顏色。作為 A320 的快速跟進，那裡的數量大幅減少。我的意思是，這意味著您 - 您每月交付的空中客車低於 50 件規定的費率。你能——我知道你通常會提前 3 到 6 個月。你能給這個減少點什麼顏色嗎？

We're just aligning to the schedule that Airbus has given us. And I would say last year, if you looked at the numbers, we over delivered to them relative to their deliveries. So they built up a buffer. And this year, they do not require as many aircraft. But as it turned out, it was a fairly significant reduction since last quarter of about 85 units.

我們只是在調整空中客車公司給我們的時間表。我想說的是，去年，如果你看一下這些數字，我們就會向他們交付超過他們的交付量。所以他們建立了一個緩衝區。而今年，他們不需要那麼多飛機。但事實證明，自上個季度以來減少了約 85 個單位，這是一個相當顯著的減少。

But that could still be subject to change as market conditions change. So we remain flexible and agile, and we'll be responsive to their schedule requests.

但隨著市場條件的變化，這仍可能會發生變化。所以我們保持靈活和敏捷，我們將響應他們的日程安排請求。

Our next question is from Doug Harned with Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自 Doug Harned 和 Bernstein。

Thank you. When you look at some of the challenges that you've had here, and we've seen challenges on the 787, the A350 and the MAX even before this current issue. And last quarter, you made some organizational changes, and we've still got new charges coming through now. And what I'm trying to understand is the steps you're taking now that can give us confidence that you can really get these operational issues behind you and start to deliver with the performance levels that I think you would hope for?

謝謝。當你看看你在這裡遇到的一些挑戰時，我們甚至在本期雜誌之前就已經看到了 787、A350 和 MAX 上的挑戰。上個季度，你做了一些組織上的改變，我們現在仍然有新的收費。我想了解的是您現在採取的步驟可以讓我們相信您可以真正解決這些運營問題並開始交付我認為您希望的性能水平？

Yes, Doug. So last quarter, we did make some organizational changes, and we've continued to strengthen our teams in all of the different programs. We've brought in, for example, several external hires on the Airbus side that will help us with the A350 and the A220. So people in quality and operations and engineering. That will bring significant expertise in those areas that will help us on execution. And here in Wichita on the 737, this was obviously an unexpected issue, related to a quality issue, but we have a strong quality team, operations team, engineering team, and they've all been working in close association with Boeing to address the issue and get execution back on track to get production flowing again and also to recover some of the units that we lost.

是的，道格。所以上個季度，我們確實進行了一些組織上的改變，並且我們繼續在所有不同的項目中加強我們的團隊。例如，我們在空中客車方面引進了幾名外部僱員，他們將幫助我們開發 A350 和 A220。所以質量、運營和工程方面的人。這將帶來那些有助於我們執行的領域的重要專業知識。在威奇託的 737，這顯然是一個意想不到的問題，與質量問題有關，但我們擁有強大的質量團隊、運營團隊、工程團隊，他們一直與波音公司密切合作，以解決發布並讓執行重回正軌，讓生產再次流動，並恢復我們丟失的一些單位。

And I would say one of the big things in terms of the 737 line, is having those strong teams, but also really the strong coordination with Boeing. In challenging times like this, our 2 companies have really come together in terms of program, operations, supply chain, engineering, to help address the issue. We've shared a lot of information, for example, on how to do the repair and share best practices to accelerate and come down the learning curve. And so I think that level of cooperation also gives us confidence that we can recover from this issue and get back to meeting the production rate increases as we go throughout the year.

我想說的是，就 737 系列而言，其中一件大事就是擁有那些強大的團隊，而且與波音公司的合作也非常緊密。在這樣充滿挑戰的時期，我們兩家公司在項目、運營、供應鏈、工程方面真正走到了一起，以幫助解決這個問題。我們分享了很多信息，例如，關於如何進行修復和分享最佳實踐以加速和降低學習曲線的信息。因此，我認為這種合作水平也讓我們有信心，我們可以從這個問題中恢復過來，並重新滿足全年的生產率增長。

And then specifically on the A350, your -- the rate the rate that you're delivering at which is 4 months in the quarter, it's below what their goals are, but they've been delivering at lower rates as well. I know you had a supplier issue there. Can you describe are you now delivering at -- is your rate constrained by your supply chain and your situation? Or is it constrained by basically the response to the signals demand signals from Airbus at this point?

然後特別是在 A350 上，你的交付率是本季度 4 個月的交付率，它低於他們的目標，但他們也一直以較低的速度交付。我知道你那裡有供應商問題。你能描述一下你現在的交付速度嗎——你的速度是否受到你的供應鍊和你的情況的限制？或者它是否基本上受到空中客車信號需求信號響應的限制？

You're talking about the A350?

你說的是 A350？

Yes.

是的。

We're aligned with Airbus schedule, and we're delivering to that. So we are on track to hit our deliveries for the year. We do have some behind schedule as normal based on supply shortages and things like that. But we are on track to hit their delivery schedule for the year. And the factory is in recovery mode, but is executing to the recovery plan and is on track for the full number of deliveries for this year. It's about 60.

我們與空中客車的時間表保持一致，我們正在為此提供服務。因此，我們有望實現今年的交付。基於供應短缺和類似的事情，我們確實有一些正常的進度落後。但我們有望達到他們今年的交貨時間表。工廠正處於恢復模式，但正在執行恢復計劃，並有望實現今年的全部交貨量。大約是60。

Our next question is from Cai von Rumohr with Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cai von Rumohr 和 Cowen。

Yes. So I can appreciate the difficulty in estimating the cost of the 737 fittings. But can you give us some help in terms of how many planes are involved. I would have calculated 250 that are in inventory of Boeing plus some 800 or so out in the fleet. So somewhat over about 1,000 planes. Is that a relatively accurate range?

是的。所以我能理解估算 737 配件成本的難度。但是你能在涉及多少架飛機方面給我們一些幫助嗎？我會計算出波音庫存中有 250 架，機隊中有大約 800 架。所以大約有 1,000 多架飛機。這是一個相對準確的範圍嗎？

Well, I think you mentioned the airplanes that Boeing has kind of in its factory and in storage. And I think on the earnings call, Dave Calhoun said about 75% of those are affected. So that's in the realm of right. In terms of the units out in the field, I think 800 is a little bit high compared to the current founding that we understand. It's probably closer to 500. And again, this could change because there's still work going on in terms of the bounding. But about 500 in the field. And as I said, the disposition hasn't been determined yet. It's likely to involve inspections in the field and the frequency is not known yet. And then in the inspection, if there is a defect observed, then there would be a replacement. But that's how that process will work.

好吧，我想你提到了波音公司在其工廠和倉庫中的飛機。我認為在財報電話會議上，Dave Calhoun 表示其中大約 75% 受到了影響。所以這是在權利範圍內。就現場的單位而言，我認為 800 與我們了解的當前創始相比有點高。它可能接近 500。而且，這可能會改變，因為在邊界方面仍在進行工作。但現場大約有500人。正如我所說，處置尚未確定。它可能涉及實地檢查，頻率尚不清楚。然後在檢查中，如果發現有缺陷，就會進行更換。但這就是該過程的運作方式。

Got it. That's very helpful. And then so you've got 688 million of forward losses on your balance sheet. And you've been burning through those at about 95 million a quarter the last couple of quarters. Can you give us some help in terms of understanding if those numbers are right, how they burn off? And then given you now have these advances to pay back when you get out to 2025, in addition to the $1.2 billion in debt to, what's your thinking in terms of how you're going to refinance all of that?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後你的資產負債表上有 6.88 億美元的遠期損失。在過去的幾個季度裡，你一直在以每季度約 9500 萬的速度消耗這些數據。您能否在理解這些數字是否正確以及它們如何消耗掉方面給我們一些幫助？然後考慮到你現在有這些預付款要在你到 2025 年時償還，除了 12 億美元的債務外，你對如何為所有這些再融資有什麼想法？

Well, Cai, let me just jump in here. If you look at our balance sheet, we're pretty transparent as it relates to the forward losses that we have on our books. And I think you're right, at the end of the first quarter, we're sitting at short-term forward losses of $324 million. And so essentially, what that means is over the next 12 months, we'll burn those losses off, which will reduce the forward loss liability balance. And not 100% of that is cash because there's some -- as we book costs, some noncash costs are embedded like depreciation, et cetera.

好吧，蔡，讓我跳進去。如果你看一下我們的資產負債表，我們非常透明，因為它與我們賬面上的遠期損失有關。我認為你是對的，在第一季度末，我們的短期遠期虧損為 3.24 億美元。所以基本上，這意味著在接下來的 12 個月裡，我們將消除這些損失，這將減少遠期損失負債餘額。並不是 100% 是現金，因為有一些 - 當我們預訂成本時，一些非現金成本被嵌入，如折舊等。

But that's what we're facing. That's what's in our cash flows, and that's what's been having an impact on our quarterly cash flows. You're right, the advances. We've pushed them out get us some relief, higher production rates in 2025 as we move into '24 and '25. We expect to be positive from a free cash flow standpoint. And then we do have a $1.2 billion worth of bonds that come due in, call it, April of 2025. And we've got a little bit of time to address those, but they will definitely based on where our cash position is today. We will be looking to refinance some portion of those, probably a large portion of those as we move into 2024. And that's how we're trying to balance all these puts and takes.

但這就是我們所面臨的。這就是我們的現金流量，這就是對我們的季度現金流量產生影響的因素。你是對的，進步。隨著我們進入 24 年和 25 年，我們已經推出了它們，讓我們在 2025 年獲得一些安慰和更高的生產率。從自由現金流的角度來看，我們預計會是積極的。然後我們確實有價值 12 億美元的債券將於 2025 年 4 月到期。我們有一點時間來解決這些問題，但它們肯定會基於我們今天的現金狀況。當我們進入 2024 年時，我們將尋求對其中的一部分進行再融資，可能是其中的很大一部分。這就是我們試圖平衡所有這些投入和獲取的方式。

Excellent. Thank you very much.

出色的。非常感謝。

Our next question is from Myles Walton with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Myles Walton 和 Wolfe Research。

So you've taken in about $280 million of cash advances or treating the liability, and you've talked about $125 million of lower free cash flow. So I'm just curious, Mark, the difference, should we interpret that as being sort of the upper boundary of the risk of costs yet to be determined?

因此，您已經獲得了大約 2.8 億美元的現金墊款或處理負債，並且您已經談到了 1.25 億美元的較低自由現金流。所以我很好奇，馬克，差異，我們是否應該將其解釋為尚未確定的成本風險的上限？

No, Myles, I wouldn't -- don't try to correlate the cash advances as support to help us with the cost of this issue. We haven't been able to determine that there -- we've -- it's been 2 weeks into this process. We've reworked a few Boeing starting to work a few of those units. I think the final fleet disposition is out there. It's really more as you think about not delivering 30 to 40 units in the second quarter. That's going to reduce the cash receipts. And because we want to make sure that we continue to be prepared for the rate break at 38, we continue to receive parts from our supply base at 31.5 a month. So it's a combination here in the near term. The impacts of lower deliveries, which is lower cash receipts and us continuing to receive parts at the current production schedules that we have to make sure that when we break rate, we have the parts -- the correct parts to build.

不，邁爾斯，我不會——不要試圖將預付現金與幫助我們解決這個問題的成本聯繫起來。我們無法確定那裡——我們已經——這個過程已經進行了 2 週。我們已經對一些波音公司進行了改造，開始使用其中的一些裝置。我認為最終的艦隊部署在那裡。考慮到第二季度不交付 30 到 40 個單位，這真的更多。這將減少現金收入。而且因為我們想確保我們繼續為 38 美元的利率突破做好準備，我們繼續以每月 31.5 美元的價格從我們的供應基地接收零件。所以它在短期內是一個組合。交付量減少的影響，即現金收入減少，我們繼續按照當前的生產計劃接收零件，我們必須確保當我們打破利率時，我們有零件——要製造的正確零件。

So there's definitely pressure on lower cash receipts and there's pressure as it relates to inventory that's coming in as well as we're making a lot of investment on the supply chain to make sure that we have the right buffers. We talk due to the fact that we continue to see have challenges from a supply chain standpoint. And our big OEMs are -- have big plans of going up from a rate standpoint at the end of this year and into '24. So some of that cash is just the near-term relief to help us with the fact that deliveries are going to be lower and that we're going to be carrying extra inventory as a result of that. And so really, that's how I would size that up, Myles.

因此，肯定存在現金收入減少的壓力，並且存在與即將到來的庫存相關的壓力，以及我們正在對供應鏈進行大量投資以確保我們擁有正確的緩衝。我們之所以交談，是因為我們繼續看到從供應鏈的角度來看存在挑戰。我們的大型原始設備製造商有很大的計劃，要在今年年底從利率的角度上升到 24 年。因此，其中一些現金只是近期的緩解措施，可以幫助我們應對交貨量將降低以及因此我們將攜帶額外庫存這一事實。所以，真的，這就是我的評估方式，Myles。

And as we said, the delivery impact will likely be in Q2. It will be 30 or 40 units. And what we said for the full year in terms of 737, our target is 390 to the 420. So that 30 units of pressure, that's why we said there's $100 million to $150 million of cash flow pressure for the year. It's mostly related to the potential shortage of deliveries on the 737.

正如我們所說，交付影響可能會出現在第二季度。它將是 30 或 40 個單位。而我們所說的全年 737，我們的目標是 390 到 420。所以 30 個單位的壓力，這就是為什麼我們說全年有 1 億到 1.5 億美元的現金流壓力。這主要與 737 的潛在交付短缺有關。

Yes. It's deliveries in inventory.

是的。它是庫存交貨。

Okay. And one quick high-level question for you, Tom. Last summer, you had a supplier bankruptcy on the 220, you had to take in house. In the fourth quarter of '22, you had a 350 supplier that sort of you had to take on their work scope. You've got another supplier here in the quarter on the 220. Can you give us like a state of affairs of your supply chain and where the risks are and aren't?

好的。湯姆，請問你一個快速的高級問題。去年夏天，您的 220 供應商破產了，您不得不收拾房子。在 22 年第四季度，您有 350 家供應商，您必須承擔他們的工作範圍。您在本季度 220 有另一家供應商。您能否向我們介紹一下您的供應鏈的狀況以及風險所在和風險所在？

Yes. As we've said, the supply chain is fragile. Like us, they've been through very challenging crisis, the MAX grounding and the pandemic. And as we came into the recovery, a lot of the suppliers already had fragile balance sheets because of those issues, massive decreases in production had to lay off a lot of people. And then now faced with production rate increases, the suppliers have had to go out and hire new staff, try to train them by advanced materials. And the cash conversion cycle is such that they're not getting cash coming in right away.

是的。正如我們所說，供應鍊是脆弱的。和我們一樣，他們經歷了極具挑戰性的危機、MAX 停飛和大流行病。當我們進入復甦階段時，由於這些問題，許多供應商的資產負債表已經脆弱，產量大幅下降不得不裁員。然後現在面對生產率的提高，供應商不得不出去僱用新員工，並嘗試用先進的材料對他們進行培訓。現金轉換週期使得他們無法立即獲得現金。

So it's creating tremendous pressure on the supply chain and a lot of the smaller suppliers haven't been able to cope with it. So you mentioned 3 examples, and they happen to be big ones where we had to step in and resolve the issue. I can assure you there have been smaller ones, too, that we're dealing with every day. I think it is just part of the supply chain challenge that we've been talking about. And that's why the supply chain is not completely stable yet, and we expect some more disruptions as we go through this year and into next year. It's getting better. But the supply base is fragile. We're working every day. We probably got 75 or 80 people out in the field every day working with our most distressed suppliers, helping them fix their plan, helping them buy material or, in some cases, offloading some work to give them pressure. We can either unload it or move it to other suppliers. We've got a variety of different strategies that we employ.

因此，它給供應鏈帶來了巨大壓力，許多較小的供應商無法應對。所以你提到了 3 個例子，它們恰好是我們必須介入並解決問題的大例子。我可以向你保證，我們每天都在處理更小的問題。我認為這只是我們一直在談論的供應鏈挑戰的一部分。這就是供應鏈尚未完全穩定的原因，我們預計今年和明年會出現更多中斷。它越來越好。但供應基礎很脆弱。我們每天都在工作。我們可能每天派出 75 或 80 人到現場與我們最困難的供應商一起工作，幫助他們制定計劃，幫助他們購買材料，或者在某些情況下，卸載一些工作給他們壓力。我們可以將其卸下或將其移至其他供應商。我們採用了多種不同的策略。

But I think it's all part of just this fragility that exists in the supply chain because they've been through a very challenging time, they're coming out of it. Now the good news is that the production rates are going up, and there is opportunities. So there's light at the end of the tunnel, but it's still fragile, and we're still working it every day.

但我認為這都是供應鏈中存在的這種脆弱性的一部分，因為他們經歷了一個非常具有挑戰性的時期，他們正在走出困境。現在好消息是生產率正在上升，並且有機會。所以隧道盡頭有光，但它仍然很脆弱，我們每天都在努力。

Our next question is from Rob Spingarn with Melius Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Rob Spingarn。

I don't know if you've covered this already, but is any -- are any of these costs on this issue recoverable from the supply chain, from the supplier that originated this issue?

我不知道您是否已經討論過這個問題，但是是否可以從供應鏈中，從引發此問題的供應商那裡收回有關此問題的任何這些成本？

No, we don't believe so. The issues are really contained within Spirit.

不，我們不相信。這些問題確實包含在 Spirit 中。

Yes. So Rob, this particular supplier one, there's not much we can do from a recovery, but some of the others that we had mentioned in previous quarters, we are in the process of working through potential recoveries from these suppliers that have caused us disruption. But those typically happen after the fact. And so in order for us to make sure that we keep production stable, we're incurring these costs and then working with those suppliers to try to get some recovery after the fact.

是的。所以 Rob，這個特定的供應商之一，我們從復蘇中無能為力，但我們在前幾個季度提到的其他一些供應商，我們正在努力解決這些供應商的潛在復蘇，這些供應商已經導致我們中斷。但這些通常發生在事後。因此，為了確保我們保持生產穩定，我們承擔了這些成本，然後與這些供應商合作，試圖在事後獲得一些恢復。

Yes, my mistake. I thought you were talking about the Vertical Fin Attach Fitting. For the supplier issues, for example.

是的，我的錯。我以為您在談論垂直翅片連接配件。例如，對於供應商問題。

I was. No I was.

我曾是。不，我是。

Okay. Yes, yes. So for the Vertical Fin Attach Fittings, it's not a supplier issue, yes.

好的。是的是的。所以對於垂直翅片連接配件，這不是供應商問題，是的。

It's not a supplier issue.

這不是供應商問題。

Okay. The other thing I wanted to ask around this is still on the supply chain was and based on your prior answer, is there a point at which you need to maybe bring work in-house. And this applies -- on any program, it sounds like -- I understand it's fragile because of the pandemic and the grounding, but maybe some of these suppliers aren't going to recover and certain things you need to bring in. We have heard such things from some of the other suppliers in the industry.

好的。我想問的另一件事仍然是在供應鏈上，並且根據您之前的回答，您是否需要在內部開展工作。這適用於任何項目，聽起來像是——我知道它很脆弱，因為大流行和停飛，但也許其中一些供應商不會恢復，某些東西你需要帶進來。我們聽說過來自業內其他一些供應商的此類產品。

The answer is yes. And we have a very large fabrication unit in Spirit, one of the largest in the world. And we have unloaded quite a bit of work from our supply chain for suppliers that were distressed and not able to perform. We're always balancing it. Sometimes we bring in work. We push out other work. But this year for certain, the net flow has been inward. We have unloaded a lot of work from suppliers in various programs in order to basically resolve issues with distressed suppliers.

答案是肯定的。我們在 Spirit 有一個非常大的製造單位，是世界上最大的製造單位之一。我們已經從我們的供應鏈中為陷入困境且無法執行的供應商卸載了相當多的工作。我們總是在平衡它。有時我們會帶來工作。我們推出其他工作。但今年可以肯定的是，淨流量是向內流入的。我們在各種項目中已經從供應商那裡卸下了很多工作，以便從根本上解決陷入困境的供應商的問題。

The good news is, is that we have a very capable fabrication operation that we're able to do that. And it's one of the strategic advantages that we have is that we do have a strong fabrication business.

好消息是，我們有一個非常有能力的製造操作，我們能夠做到這一點。我們擁有的戰略優勢之一是我們擁有強大的製造業務。

Our next question is from George Shapiro with Shapiro Research.

我們的下一個問題來自夏皮羅研究中心的喬治夏皮羅。

Yes, I wanted to ask I think, Tom, earlier, you said in response to Cai's question is like 500 in the field that we require. We work and Boeing has got an inventory of 250, maybe.

是的，我想問一下，Tom，早些時候，你在回答 Cai 的問題時說，我們需要的字段中有 500 個。我們工作，波音公司的庫存可能有 250 架。

George, let me just say, I didn't say 500 would required rework. I said there's 500 in the field that we would have to inspect. Not all of them are require rework, just to be clear.

喬治，我只想說，我沒有說 500 需要返工。我說現場有 500 個我們必須檢查。並不是所有的都需要返工，只是為了清楚。

Okay. That's what -- part of what I was going to ask. And roughly, you said about half of what you had 19 out of 30 or so required rework. So if we assume that half of everything out there requires rework. And I would imagine the rework is more than the 100,000 to 150,000 that you're doing because you got to disassemble part of it to get there. Is Boeing going to then come back to you with the bill for that total amount that would be due? And how would you negotiate that?

好的。這就是我要問的問題的一部分。粗略地說，您說大約 30 個中有 19 個需要返工。因此，如果我們假設所有東西中有一半需要返工。而且我認為返工比您正在做的 100,000 到 150,000 多，因為您必須拆卸其中的一部分才能到達那裡。波音公司是否會帶著應付的總金額的賬單返回給您？你將如何談判？

Yes. Well, first of all, let me just say that we don't know how many units will require rework. That will be part of the disposition. And it will also be a result of an inspection in the field to determine if there is a defect. And only where there is an identifiable defect where there'll be rework required. So that's why Mark said we can't estimate it at this time because we haven't gone through that whole process. But I would not say that it will be half or any number. It will be we'll inspect it if there's a defect, then there will be a repair.

是的。好吧，首先，我只想說，我們不知道有多少單位需要返工。這將是處置的一部分。並且它也會是現場檢查的結果，以確定是否存在缺陷。並且只有在需要返工的地方存在可識別的缺陷。所以這就是為什麼馬克說我們現在無法估計它，因為我們還沒有經歷整個過程。但我不會說它會是一半或任何數字。如果有缺陷，我們會檢查它，然後進行維修。

With regard to units that Boeing repairs, I think what you're asking is, is there any potential that they could come back to us with a claim. That's a possibility. We have normal processes for these sort of things that we work through with Boeing. Right now, our primary focus is working with Boeing to make sure that we've addressed the safety flight issues, which we are doing and have done. There's no immediate safety of flight issue. The next thing is to make sure that we can identify a repair, which we have done and are collaborating very well on it. And then next is to get the production system flowing again to address any impacts and to recover the schedule.

關於波音公司維修的設備，我想你問的是，他們是否有可能向我們提出索賠。這是一種可能。對於與波音公司合作的這類事情，我們有正常的流程。目前，我們的主要重點是與波音公司合作，以確保我們已經解決了我們正在做和已經做的安全飛行問題。沒有直接的飛行安全問題。接下來的事情是確保我們能夠確定修復，我們已經完成並在這方面合作得很好。接下來是讓生產系統再次運行以解決任何影響並恢復進度。

And that's really where the focus is right now. The other issues we will address in the normal processes that we have with Boeing over -- in the future. But right now, the focus is focusing on the repairs and the production schedule and getting the disposition and the fleet finalized.

這就是現在的重點所在。其他問題我們將在未來與波音一起解決的正常流程中解決。但現在，重點是維修和生產計劃，以及最終確定處置和艦隊。

Okay. And one follow-up for Mark. If I looked at the underlying margin mark in the quarter, you take out excess costs and the charges and everything it's about 10%, a little less than the fourth quarter, I'm sure, because of the negative cume adjustments on the MAX. Is that 10% a decent run rate going forward? Will it get better? Or I guess it could deteriorate more if you got more negative cum catches. So just your kind of thought process on that.

好的。馬克的後續行動。如果我查看本季度的基本保證金標記，你會去掉超額成本和費用以及大約 10% 的所有內容，我敢肯定，比第四季度少一點，因為 MAX 的負累積調整。這 10% 是一個不錯的運行率嗎？它會變得更好嗎？或者我想如果你有更多的負面暨捕獲，它可能會惡化得更多。所以只是你的思考過程。

Well, George, you're exactly right. We continue to be, in the first quarter, have certain levels of disruption within our factories. And I think on our last call, I had told you that we had added some additional costs to support the factory to achieve our delivery commitments in the first quarter, which was roughly 100 units. And so if you strip those things out, the onetime items like the forward losses and the impact of the Vertical Fin. I think you're right, if you want to kind of think about it as a normalized what would the company look like without those disruptions.

嗯，喬治，你完全正確。在第一季度，我們的工廠內仍然存在一定程度的中斷。我想在我們上次電話中，我已經告訴過你我們增加了一些額外的成本來支持工廠在第一季度實現我們的交付承諾，大約是 100 台。因此，如果你去掉這些東西，比如前向損失和垂直鰭的影響等一次性項目。我認為你是對的，如果你想把它看作是一個標準化的公司，如果沒有這些中斷，它會是什麼樣子。

And that's a good starting point as we move after the second quarter, we deal with the impacts of the Vertical Fin, as we move up in rate, you'll see those margins start to expand. It's the higher production rates, 7 or 8 more units per month. It's the fixed cost absorption benefits. It's the reduction in our excess costs. And both of those things will help lift up the margin and create some uplift as we move into the back half of the year, and that's what the plans are.

這是一個很好的起點，因為我們在第二季度之後移動，我們處理 Vertical Fin 的影響，隨著我們提高速度，你會看到這些利潤率開始擴大。這是更高的生產率，每月增加 7 或 8 個單位。這是固定成本吸收收益。這是我們超額成本的減少。當我們進入今年下半年時，這兩件事都將有助於提高利潤率並創造一些提升，這就是計劃。

So as Tom said, first things first. We've got to work really hard to rework the units, get the production system back going, deliver units to Boeing can support their customers. And as part of this, a big portion of the cost that we're booking associated with the Vertical Fin is to stabilize our factory because we shut down production. We didn't do anything for several weeks as we work through the fix. So we've got further book behind schedule. So the focus is do the rework start producing, stabilize the factory, burn this the back behind schedule down and then put ourselves in a really good position to do a really good job increasing our -- to the next production rate break in August, which is 38. And all of that, from an operational standpoint, we execute on that, we'll see a margin lift.

正如湯姆所說，要事第一。我們必須非常努力地重新加工這些裝置，讓生產系統恢復正常，將裝置交付給波音公司以支持他們的客戶。作為其中的一部分，我們預訂的與 Vertical Fin 相關的大部分成本是為了穩定我們的工廠，因為我們關閉了生產。在修復過程中，我們有幾個星期沒有做任何事情。所以我們有更多的書落後於計劃。因此，重點是返工開始生產，穩定工廠，把落後於計劃的時間燒掉，然後讓我們自己處於一個非常好的位置，做好工作，增加我們的——到 8 月份的下一個生產率中斷，這是 38。所有這些，從運營的角度來看，我們執行它，我們將看到利潤率提升。

Yes. And George, I'll just reiterate because Mark made an important point there is we are still planning to do the production rate increase in August to 38 in October to 42 aircraft per month. We have the headcount in place for 42 aircraft per month. A lot of them are getting trained and on the job experience so that we can hit those production rates throughout the rest of this year. That's part of our recovery plan.

是的。喬治，我只是重申一下，因為馬克提出了一個重要的觀點，我們仍計劃在 8 月將生產率提高到 38 架，在 10 月達到每月 42 架飛機。我們有每月 42 架飛機的員工人數。他們中的許多人正在接受培訓並獲得工作經驗，以便我們可以在今年餘下的時間里達到這些生產率。這是我們恢復計劃的一部分。

Our next question is from Kristine Liwag with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Kristine Liwag。

Tom, Mark, following up on your comments regarding the fragility of the supply chain how much incremental working capital is embedded in your updated free cash flow guide that's earmarked to provide cash support for suppliers? And what's your confidence level that you've captured the risk?

湯姆，馬克，跟進您對供應鏈脆弱性的評論，您更新的自由現金流量指南中嵌入了多少增量營運資金，專門用於為供應商提供現金支持？您對已捕捉到風險的信心水平如何？

Well, in terms -- I mean we've taken into account known items in terms of our free cash flow guidance. There could always be unknown things that surface, and we would deal with those at the time. But as I said, the supply chain is fragile, but we're taking a lot of actions, as I described, to help shore it up. And the good news is that we have a very strong fabrication operation so that we can unload work when it's required. And we also gained a lot of experience over the last several years of transferring work between suppliers. And that capability is paying off now because we are able to transfer work when needed between suppliers.

好吧，就我們的自由現金流量指導而言，我的意思是我們已經考慮了已知的項目。總會有未知的事情浮出水面，我們會在那個時候處理這些事情。但正如我所說，供應鍊是脆弱的，但正如我所描述的，我們正在採取很多行動來幫助支撐它。好消息是我們擁有非常強大的製造業務，因此我們可以在需要時卸載工作。在過去幾年中，我們在供應商之間轉移工作方面也積累了很多經驗。這種能力現在正在得到回報，因為我們能夠在需要時在供應商之間轉移工作。

So I think we can mitigate the risks and any known issues in terms of cash are incorporated into our current forecast.

因此，我認為我們可以降低風險，並且現金方面的任何已知問題都已納入我們當前的預測中。

And if I could do a follow-up on your upcoming labor agreement expiration that ends in June. Can you give us any color on how negotiations are going? And also second, when you think about your full year outlook, how much labor increase is embedded in your guide?

如果我可以跟進您即將於 6 月到期的勞動協議到期。你能告訴我們談判的進展情況嗎？其次，當你考慮你的全年展望時，你的指南中包含多少勞動力增加？

Great. Well, the negotiations have just started. The main table negotiations started on May 1, and the teams are now engaged in dialogue. It's very constructive and positive relationship and the initial dialogue is going well. Our primary objective, as I said before, is to make sure we reward our employees with a competitive contract as we go forward. Our employees have been through a lot, and they have performed very well, and we certainly want to recognize that. And it's really in both of our interests that we reach an agreement. So that is the objective, and that's the discussion that is already underway.

偉大的。嗯，談判才剛剛開始。主桌談判於5月1日開始，各隊正在進行對話。這是非常有建設性和積極的關係，初步對話進展順利。正如我之前所說，我們的主要目標是確保在我們前進的過程中以有競爭力的合同獎勵我們的員工。我們的員工經歷了很多，他們的表現非常出色，我們當然希望認識到這一點。達成協議確實符合我們雙方的利益。這就是目標，這就是已經在進行的討論。

In terms of the impact, we obviously, know what other labor agreements in the market have been with other industrial companies and specifically with the IAM at places like Lockheed or United Launch Alliance or Pratt Whitney or Boeing St. Louis. And so we've taken all those into account. And our future guidance and forecasts are based on estimates of where we think we will end up. Now of course, that can change but we do have benchmarks in terms of what has already happened, and we are using those in terms of developing a competitive contract offer for our employees.

就影響而言，我們顯然知道市場上與其他工業公司簽訂的其他勞動協議，特別是與 IAM 在洛克希德或聯合發射聯盟或普拉特惠特尼或波音聖路易斯等地的協議。所以我們已經考慮了所有這些。我們未來的指導和預測是基於我們認為我們最終會在哪裡的估計。現在當然，這可能會改變，但我們確實有已經發生的事情的基準，我們正在使用這些基準為我們的員工製定有競爭力的合同報價。

Our next question is from Michael Ciarmoli with Truist.

我們的下一個問題來自 Michael Ciarmoli 和 Truist。

I guess just on the you've got basically $570 million of cash on the balance sheet. If you're going to burn $150 million, that leaves you with of 418. Help me understand why you exactly need the $280 million cash advance. I mean what do we not know here that could be a big risk to cash?

我猜你的資產負債表上基本上有 5.7 億美元的現金。如果你要燒掉 1.5 億美元，那你還剩下 418 美元。幫助我理解為什麼你確實需要 2.8 億美元的預付現金。我的意思是我們在這裡不知道什麼可能對現金構成巨大風險？

It really is just to have some additional surplus and cushion because you're right, that's about the -- those are the right numbers. We just felt it was prudent to make sure we had some additional cushion. We've always said we want between $300 million and $500 million to run the business. And the $280 million gave us some cushion to put us above that threshold. And that's really the reason. I don't think there's any other underlying reason other than we felt it prudent to have that cushion. And we were fortunate that our customers were able to support us, particularly Boeing.

這真的只是為了有一些額外的盈餘和緩衝，因為你是對的，這就是 - 這些是正確的數字。我們只是覺得確保我們有一些額外的緩衝是謹慎的。我們一直說我們需要 3 億到 5 億美元來運營這項業務。 2.8 億美元為我們提供了一些緩衝，使我們能夠超越這一門檻。這就是真正的原因。除了我們認為擁有這種緩衝是謹慎的做法之外，我認為沒有任何其他潛在原因。我們很幸運，我們的客戶能夠支持我們，尤其是波音公司。

Okay. Is there an interest rate attached to that? Or is this an interest-free cash advantage?

好的。那有利率嗎？或者這是免息現金優勢？

The Boeing cash advance is interest-free.

波音現金墊款是免息的。

Okay. Perfect. Thanks, guys.

好的。完美的。多謝你們。

Our next question is from Noah Poponak with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Noah Poponak。

Good day. Mark, could you maybe spend a minute on the shape and pacing of the quarterly free cash flow through the rest of the year, especially just given in 2Q here, you've got the lower deliveries while you're taking on the inventory to go higher?

再會。馬克，你能不能花一點時間了解一下今年剩餘時間的季度自由現金流的形狀和節奏，尤其是這裡給出的第二季度，你在庫存庫存時交付量較低更高？

Sure, Noah. And it kind of relates to the discussion around the cash advances and Michael's commentary about, hey, we know what your full year cash update is negative $100 million to negative $150 million. You know what your cash balance is. But there is nuances to our cash flow by quarter, right? And we just talked about the fact that we will be looking at 30 to 40 lower 737 fuse launch deliveries in the second quarter while continuing to take in 30 or 40 units of inventory that we're not going to deliver. So that obviously is a short-term impact to free cash flow in the second quarter.

當然，諾亞。這與圍繞現金預支的討論和邁克爾的評論有關，嘿，我們知道你的全年現金更新是負 1 億美元到負 1.5 億美元。你知道你的現金餘額是多少。但是我們每個季度的現金流量都有細微差別，對嗎？我們剛剛談到了這樣一個事實，即我們將在第二季度考慮減少 30 到 40 個 737 保險絲發射交付，同時繼續接收 30 或 40 個我們不會交付的庫存。因此，這顯然是對第二季度自由現金流的短期影響。

And we -- with the support of our customers, it's like, hey, we're not going to run out of cash, but why don't we help you out as you guys focus on production, make sure you keep your supply chain healthy because we need you guys to go up in rate. And so the second quarter just operationally as a result of that is going to be quite a bit challenging, okay? And it's obviously going to -- we're going to consume more cash than we consumed in the first quarter. And then when we think about the third and fourth quarter as it relates to our overall plan, the viewpoint was always the first half of the year was going to be the most challenging from a margin and a cash flow standpoint. And as we recovered the factory. We got on a steady drum rate on delivering units, and we hit the 38 production rate in the back half of the year. That would help us stabilize the inventory and improve the deliveries, the throughput through the factory, improve cash receipts, burn-offs in inventory in the back half of the year was always going to move into a positive cash flow range, right?

我們 - 在我們客戶的支持下，就像，嘿，我們不會用完現金，但為什麼我們不幫助你們，因為你們專注於生產，確保你們保持供應鏈健康，因為我們需要你們提高速度。因此，第二季度的運營將面臨相當大的挑戰，好嗎？很明顯，我們將消耗比第一季度消耗更多的現金。然後，當我們考慮與我們的總體計劃相關的第三和第四季度時，從利潤率和現金流的角度來看，上半年的觀點始終是最具挑戰性的。當我們恢復工廠時。我們在交付單位方面取得了穩定的鼓率，我們在今年下半年達到了 38 的生產率。這將有助於我們穩定庫存並改善交付、工廠的吞吐量、改善現金收入、下半年庫存的消耗總是會進入正現金流範圍，對吧？

And so if we do our jobs well, right, and we're very, very focused on supporting our customer and recovering our factories in the second quarter, that type of trajectory should occur, right? We should I think there'll be -- continue to be some trickle impacts in the third quarter because there's still some rework that will take place into July. But we're still expecting a nice improvement in our cash situation -- free cash flow situation in the back half of the year and still focused on getting to a quarter positive cash flow. And but all of that will be highly dependent on how we execute the second quarter and deal with the rework and restart the production. And then we've got costs here that will have to be dealt with at some point in time in the future. But that's the game plan from a true production standpoint, second quarter will be tougher than the first and as we move into the back half of the year, we continue to expect to be cash flow positive.

因此，如果我們做好我們的工作，對，並且我們非常非常專注於支持我們的客戶並在第二季度恢復我們的工廠，那麼應該會出現這種軌跡，對吧？我認為我們應該會在第三季度繼續產生一些涓滴影響，因為 7 月份仍有一些返工。但我們仍然期待我們的現金狀況有一個很好的改善——今年下半年的自由現金流狀況，並且仍然專注於實現四分之一的正現金流。但所有這些都將在很大程度上取決於我們如何執行第二季度並處理返工並重新開始生產。然後我們這裡有成本，必須在未來的某個時間點處理。但從真正的生產角度來看，這是遊戲計劃，第二季度將比第一季度更艱難，隨著我們進入今年下半年，我們繼續期望現金流為正。

Is 2Q a larger usage than the 69 reported or the 249, if I strip out the.

2Q 的使用量是否大於報告的 69 或 249，如果我去掉了。

Larger than the 69.

大於69。

Is it larger than the 249 if I strip out the pension page?

把pension頁去掉是不是比249大？

We're not ready to disclose this at this point, right? Again, and I'm not trying to be tongue in cheek here, but it's really -- we're just a couple of weeks into this, and I don't want to give you guys a number that you're going to depend on. And so let's hold with what we have here. Give us some time to work through this, and we'll give you another report out after the second quarter.

我們現在還沒準備好透露這一點，對吧？再說一次，我並不是想在這裡開玩笑，但它真的 - 我們只需要幾週時間，我不想給你們一個你們將依賴的數字在。因此，讓我們堅持我們所擁有的。給我們一些時間來解決這個問題，我們會在第二季度後給你另一份報告。

No, fair enough. Just trying to get as calibrated as possible, plus also an answer.

不，很公平。只是想盡可能地校準，再加上一個答案。

I understand.

我明白。

Michael's question there. The payments -- or the cost to rework what's in Boeing scope and not delivered and then what's in the active fleet. Can you speak to the timing of that? When will all of that -- when will those 2 categories of rework occur?

那裡有邁克爾的問題。付款 - 或返工波音範圍內未交付的產品以及現役機隊中的產品的成本。你能說說時間嗎？所有這些什麼時候——這兩類返工什麼時候發生？

Yes. Well, let's just take the fleet first. That will be over a very long period of time as the inspections take place and whether there is a determination if any rework is required. But that takes place over a long time. based on the flight and the cycles of each individual aircraft. And with Boeing in terms of their repairs, again, that will take place over a period of time as well. We don't know yet what Boeing's schedule will be -- they're obviously working quickly to do it. And as I mentioned before, we'll sit down like we do through our normal processes and understand how we allocate the cost for that.

是的。好吧，讓我們先拿艦隊來說吧。隨著檢查的進行以及是否需要返工，這將持續很長時間。但那是在很長一段時間內發生的。基於每架飛機的飛行和周期。就波音公司的維修而言，這也將在一段時間內進行。我們還不知道波音公司的時間表是什麼——他們顯然正在迅速開展工作。正如我之前提到的，我們將像正常流程一樣坐下來了解我們如何為此分配成本。

Okay. And are you -- is your best estimate that, that cost to rework what's not yours -- or it's not your fuselages will be a multiple of the $100,000 to $150,000 or it's just too early to tell?

好的。你是——你最好的估計是，返工不屬於你的東西的成本——或者不是你的機身將是 100,000 美元到 150,000 美元的倍數，還是現在下結論還為時過早？

It's too early. We know that for us to repair a unit, it's $100,000 to $150,000. As I said, with Boeing, they have aircraft that are more complete, all the way to completed aircraft, and they have more structure to remove in some systems. So their costs will be higher than ours.

太早了。我們知道，我們修理一個單元需要 10 萬到 15 萬美元。正如我所說，對於波音公司，他們擁有更完整的飛機，一直到完成的飛機，並且在某些系統中他們有更多的結構需要移除。所以他們的成本會比我們的高。

Okay.

好的。

But it's essentially the same type of rework, it just -- it's going to take them a little bit longer to complete that. And the cost of the parts are no different whether we do it or Boeing does it.

但它本質上是相同類型的返工，只是 - 他們需要更長的時間才能完成。無論我們做還是波音做，零件的成本都沒有什麼不同。

So that sounds, Mark, that sounds like just a little bit of a lack of visibility. It's going to be a higher number likely but not a multiple -- not 2 to 3x higher.

所以這聽起來，馬克，這聽起來有點缺乏能見度。它可能會是一個更高的數字，但不是倍數——不是高 2 到 3 倍。

Again, I don't.

再一次，我沒有。

It's a little bit early to say, but.

現在說有點早，但是。

You wouldn't have those discussions, but I think you're thinking about it right.

你不會有那些討論，但我認為你正在考慮它是正確的。

Yes. The repair is the exact same type of repair. It's just that they have more structures and systems to remove and replace.

是的。維修是完全相同類型的維修。只是他們有更多的結構和系統需要拆除和更換。

Our next question is from Peter Arment with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Peter Arment 和 Baird。

Mark, thanks for all those free cash flow details just with Noah, I think we're all trying to figure that out. Just a quick one, Tom. Just on the 787 program, production your plans around -- should we expect you'll be at the kind of the 5 a month rate as you get into the fourth quarter? Or are you going to be leading that? Maybe you're going to be doing that before? And then just how long you kind of hold that rate? I appreciate it.

馬克，感謝諾亞提供的所有自由現金流細節，我想我們都在努力弄清楚。只是一個快速的，湯姆。就 787 計劃而言，圍繞您的計劃進行生產——我們是否應該期望您在進入第四季度時達到每月 5 架的速度？或者你要領導那個？也許你以前會這樣做？然後你持有這個利率多久了？我很感激。

Yes. Well, the plan for 787 this year is to deliver 40 to 45. We are currently getting up to rate 5. And so we will be there probably before the end of the year. And the schedule then will go up to 7 later in the year. But again, right in conformance with Boeing schedule. So we have the rate ramps lined up, and we will meet the Boeing schedule. And the current deliveries for the 787 for this year are 40 to 45.

是的。好吧，今年 787 的計劃是交付 40 到 45 架。我們目前正在達到 5 級。所以我們可能會在今年年底之前到達那裡。然後時間表將在今年晚些時候上升到 7。但同樣，與波音公司的時間表一致。因此，我們已經排好速度坡道，我們將滿足波音公司的時間表。今年 787 目前的交付量為 40 到 45 架。

Our next question is from Ron Epstein with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ron Epstein。

Hi, everyone. This is actually Andre Madrid (inaudible) on for Ron today. So kind of a broader question, going back to what everybody was asking on supply chain. I guess going up the supply chain even further how would you guys respond to an approach by Boeing sort of buy back operations at Wichita? Is that something you'd be receptive to given how it might streamline things up and down the supply chain?

大家好。這實際上是 Andre Madrid（聽不清）今天替 Ron 發言。這是一個更廣泛的問題，回到每個人在供應鏈上提出的問題。我想在供應鏈上走得更遠，你們會如何回應波音公司在威奇託的回購業務？考慮到它如何簡化供應鏈上下的事情，你會接受嗎？

Well, I will have to leave that to Boeing to respond to. We're a public company. People can make offers for public companies and we would respond to those things. I have no idea what Boeing's plans are related to something like that.

好吧，我將不得不把它留給波音公司來回應。我們是一家上市公司。人們可以為上市公司提供報價，我們會對這些事情做出回應。我不知道波音公司的計劃與類似的事情有什麼關係。

Got you. Understood. Yes, I'll leave it at that.

明白了明白了。是的，我會保留它。

That's our last question for the day. Thank you all for joining us. We will now disconnect your lines.

這是我們今天的最後一個問題。謝謝大家加入我們。我們現在將斷開您的線路。