Spirit AeroSystems Holdings Inc (SPR) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc.'s Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Glenn, and I will be your coordinator today. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the presentation over to Aaron Hunt, Director of Investor Relations. Please proceed.

女士們，先生們，早安，歡迎參加Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. 2022年第四季及全年業績電話會議。我叫Glenn，今天將擔任您的主持人。 （操作員指示）現在，我想將演示交給投資者關係總監Aaron Hunt。請繼續。

Thank you, Glenn, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Spirit's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Results Call. I'm Aaron Hunt, Director of Investor Relations. And with me today are Spirit's President and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Gentile; Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Mark Suchinski; Executive Vice President and President of Defense & Space division, Duane Hawkins; and Spirit's Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer and President of Commercial Division, Sam Marnick. After opening comments by Tom, Duane and Mark regarding our performance and outlook, we will take your questions.

謝謝格倫，大家早安！歡迎參加Spirit公司2022年第四季及全年業績電話會議。我是投資者關係總監亞倫·亨特（Aaron Hunt）。今天與我一同出席的還有Spirit公司總裁兼首席執行官湯姆·金泰爾（Tom Gentile）、高級副總裁兼首席財務官馬克·蘇欽斯基（Mark Suchinski）、執行副總裁兼國防與航天部門總裁杜安·霍金斯（Duane Hawkins）以及Spirit公司執行副總裁、首席營運官兼商業部門總裁薩姆·馬尼克（Sam Marnick）。湯姆、杜安和馬克就公司業績和前景發表開場評論後，我們將回答大家的提問。

Before we begin, I need to remind you that any projections or goals we may include in our discussion today are likely to involve risks, including those detailed in our earnings release, in our SEC filings and the forward-looking statement at the end of this web presentation and referenced in our call today.

在我們開始之前，我需要提醒您，我們今天討論中可能包含的任何預測或目標都可能涉及風險，包括我們的收益報告、美國證券交易委員會文件以及本網絡演示末尾和今天電話會議中提到的前瞻性聲明中詳細說明的風險。

In addition, we refer you to our earnings release and presentation for disclosures and reconciliation of non-GAAP measures we use when discussing our results. And as a reminder, you can follow today's broadcast and slide presentation on our website at investor.spiritaero.com.

此外，請參考我們的績效報告和簡報，以了解我們在討論績效時所使用的非公認會計準則 (Non-GAAP) 指標的揭露和對帳。此外，您還可以造訪我們的網站 investor.spiritaero.com 以追蹤今天的直播和幻燈片簡報。

With that, I would like to turn the call over to our Chief Executive Officer, Tom Gentile.

說完這些，我想把電話轉給我們的執行長湯姆金蒂爾 (Tom Gentile)。

Thank you, Aaron, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Spirit's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Results Call. Last year, we saw domestic travel continue to recover across the globe. The U.S. was the best performing market, where air traffic was 2% below the 2019 level. And in China, we are encouraged to see some travel restrictions lifted in the 737 MAX return to service.

謝謝Aaron，大家早安。歡迎參加Spirit航空2022年第四季及全年業績電話會議。去年，我們看到全球國內旅行持續復甦。美國是表現最佳的市場，其航空客運量比2019年水準低2%。在中國，隨著737 MAX的複飛，一些旅行限制也隨之取消，這讓我們感到欣慰。

Domestic air travel favors narrow-body aircraft like the A320, and the 737 MAX, both of which logged several significant new orders during the year. The orders and additional backlog provide support to Airbus and Boeing's plans to increase narrow-body production rates further. We are encouraged by the continued demand, which we expect will benefit Spirit since 85% of our backlog is tied to narrow-body aircraft.

國內航空旅行青睞A320和737 MAX等窄體飛機，這兩款飛機在今年都獲得了多筆重要的新訂單。這些訂單和新增訂單為空中巴士和波音進一步提高窄體飛機生產率的計劃提供了支持。持續的需求令我們感到鼓舞，我們預計這將使Spirit航空受益，因為我們85%的訂單都與窄體飛機有關。

While demand remains robust, we experienced a number of challenges as we increased production rates during 2022. We had to hire a significant number of new employees who are taking time to reach the same level of proficiency as the workers we had prior to the pandemic. We also experienced higher levels of attrition with the new employees we hired.

儘管需求依然強勁，但在2022年提高生產力的過程中，我們遇到了許多挑戰。我們必須招募大量新員工，而這些新員工需要一段時間才能達到疫情前現有員工的熟練程度。此外，新進員工的流動率也更高。

In addition, our suppliers encountered similar challenges, which resulted in higher levels of part shortages throughout the year. We also encountered higher levels of inflation. Despite these challenges, we managed to increase our production rates across several major programs by 27% overall.

此外，我們的供應商也面臨類似的挑戰，導致全年零件短缺加劇。我們也遭遇了通貨膨脹加劇。儘管面臨這些挑戰，我們仍成功將幾個主要項目的生產力整體提高了27%。

On the 737 program, we managed through the challenges as production increased from 162 units in 2021 to 281 units in 2022, a 73% increase. To support the recovery and the expected higher level of production in 2023, we began hiring additional head count in the fourth quarter, which drove additional cost, but is an investment to get ready for the production rate increases in 2023.

在737專案方面，我們克服了挑戰，產量從2021年的162架增加到2022年的281架，成長率達73%。為了支持復甦並實現2023年預期的更高產量，我們從第四季開始招募更多員工，雖然增加了成本，但這也是一項為2023年產量提升做好準備的投資。

While we expect to see ongoing supply chain challenges and issues, as we stabilize production, our December 737 production was 40 units, demonstrating our capability to produce at higher rates. In 2023, we plan to produce about 420, 737 shipsets which includes the units behind schedule from 2022, in January, we delivered 33 737 units.

雖然我們預期供應鏈挑戰和問題將持續存在，但隨著生產逐步穩定，12月737飛機的產量達到40架，展現了我們以更高速度生產的能力。 2023年，我們計劃生產約420架737飛機，其中包括2022年計畫落後的飛機。今年1月，我們交付了33架737飛機。

Turning to our wide-body programs, the 787 program navigated through challenges last year, and we delivered 20 units to our customer. Our 787 production resumed with a new build process to address the fit and finish requirements applicable to all the partners on the program. After completing a few units with the new process, we have found more labor per unit is needed than originally expected, which is one of the reasons driving an additional forward loss on future units this quarter.

談到我們的寬體飛機項目，787項目去年克服了挑戰，向客戶交付了20架飛機。我們恢復了787的生產，並採用了新的製造流程，以滿足適用於該專案所有合作夥伴的組裝和外觀要求。在採用新流程完成幾架飛機後，我們發現每架飛機所需的勞動力比最初預期的要多，這也是導致本季未來飛機出現額外預期虧損的原因之一。

It is also taking us longer than we expected to rework the stored 787 units. We now believe we have incorporated what is needed for the 787 fit and finish requirements in the new build process and rework.

我們對已停產的787飛機進行返工的時間也比預期要長。現在，我們相信我們已經將787的組裝和外觀要求融入新製造流程和返工中。

On our A350 program, we continue to see disruption driving increased cost pressure. During the year, we saw continued disruptions from the supply chain. The transfer of parts and the ramp-up of production put the program behind schedule. We have initiated our recovery plan. However, recovery costs included expedited shipping of components to support our customers' production are resulting in additional forward loss. Mark will walk you through the details of the forward losses on these 2 programs in his section.

在我們的A350專案中，我們持續看到生產中斷導致成本壓力增加。今年，我們看到供應鏈持續中斷。零部件的轉移和產量的提升導致專案進度落後。我們已經啟動了恢復計劃。然而，包括為支持客戶生產而加急運送零件在內的恢復成本，正在造成額外的遠期損失。 Mark將在他的專欄中為您詳細介紹這兩個項目的遠期損失。

We continue to support Airbus on their narrow-body programs. Our production was in line with demand from Airbus, and we expect to continue to produce to remain in sync with their production plans. In 2023, we plan to produce between 650 and 680 A320 units and about 80 A220 units.

我們將繼續支持空中巴士的窄體飛機計畫。我們的產量符合空中巴士的需求，並預計將繼續與其生產計畫保持同步。 2023年，我們計劃生產650至680架A320飛機和約80架A220飛機。

And looking at our wide-body programs for 2023, we will support our customers as they increase their production rates to support the international traffic recovery. On the 787 program, we expect to produce between 40 and 45 787 shipsets. On the A350 program, we plan to remain in sync with Boeing -- excuse me, with Airbus production as they increase from 5 to 6 aircraft per month and plan to produce about 60 units on the A350.

展望我們2023年的寬體飛機項目，我們將支援客戶提高生產力，以支援國際客運量的復甦。在787項目上，我們預計將生產40至45架787飛機。在A350項目上，我們計劃與波音——不好意思，是空中巴士——保持同步生產，空中巴士的月產量將從5架增加到6架，併計劃生產約60架A350飛機。

Now let's turn to our defense and aftermarket businesses. On Defense & Space, our segment President, Duane Hawkins is retiring from his current role in just a few weeks and will hand off the segment to Mark Miklos. Duane and the team have done a great job in building Spirits' Defense & Space segment, and we wanted to give him an opportunity to take you through some of the many highlights from 2022.

現在，讓我們來談談我們的國防和售後市場業務。國防與航太業務部門總裁 Duane Hawkins）將在幾週後退休，並將該部門移交給馬克·米克洛斯（Mark Miklos）。杜安和他的團隊在打造Spirits國防與航太業務方面做出了巨大貢獻，我們想讓他有機會帶您回顧2022年的一些亮點。

Duane?

杜安？

Thanks, Tom. In 2022, the Defense & Space team did a really good job, executing on existing programs and winning some new ones. Across our 5 growth areas, Hypersonics, UAS, Next Generation Effects, Next Generation Aircraft, and Space, we expanded relationships with current customers and created some new ones. The Defense & Space segment revenues were up a little over 11% from 2022 to $650 million with approximately 11.2% margin. We had solid contributions from the P8 and KC-46 programs.

謝謝，湯姆。 2022年，國防與航太團隊表現非常出色，在執行現有專案的同時贏得了一些新專案。在我們五大成長領域——高超音速、無人機系統、下一代效應、下一代飛機和航太——中，我們拓展了與現有客戶的關係，並贏得了一些新客戶。國防與航太部門的營收較2022年成長了11%多一點，達到6.5億美元，利潤率約11.2%。 P8和KC-46計畫為我們做出了堅實的貢獻。

On the CH-53K program, we began preparing for full rate production by developing our rate production tooling and manufacturing build plan, while also delivering LRIP units.

在 CH-53K 專案中，我們開始為全速率生產做準備，開發了速率生產工具和製造建置計劃，同時也交付了 LRIP 單元。

And in December, we had the opportunity to attend the B-21 unveiling to celebrate the team's contributions to this important new defense platform. Spirit is one of the 7 partners on the B-21 program. We have a strong pipeline of Defense & Space opportunities that we continue to pursue.

12月，我們有幸參加了B-21的揭幕儀式，慶祝團隊對這項重要新型國防平台的貢獻。 Spirit是B-21計畫的七個合作夥伴之一。我們擁有豐富的國防和航太合作機會，並將繼續積極拓展。

In 2022, the team won multiple classified and unclassified programs that could eventually result in significant revenue for Spirit. One of the first in the year was a win for the B-52 commercial engine replacement program, where Spirit will build the strut and nacelles for approximately 78 aircraft that are in service. We were also selected to support the KC-135 horizontal stabilizer program, which will help extend the life of an aircraft we often see gracing the skies here in Wichita.

2022年，團隊贏得了多個機密和非機密項目，這些項目最終可能為Spirit帶來可觀的收入。今年的首批項目之一是贏得B-52商用引擎更換項目，Spirit將為大約78架現役飛機製造支柱和引擎室。我們也被選中支援KC-135水平穩定器項目，這將有助於延長這款我們經常在威奇托天空中看到的飛機的使用壽命。

Another win in the year was the strategic partnership agreement for the Sierra Space's Shooting Star Cargo module. In addition to the Shooting Stars, Sierra Space and Spirit will work together to advance a family of cargo modules and service modules.

今年的另一項成果是Sierra Space公司與Spirit航太公司就其「流星」貨運艙達成的策略合作協議。除了「流星」貨運艙之外，Sierra Space公司和Spirit航太公司還將合作推動一系列貨運艙和服務艙的研發。

And finally, we are closely monitoring the protest of the army FLRAA approved award to our partner, Bell Helicopter and look forward to supporting them on this exciting new program. Spirit is proud to be a member of Team Valor.

最後，我們正在密切關注陸軍FLRAA批准的合同，並向我們的合作夥伴貝爾直升機公司提出抗議，並期待在這個激動人心的新項目中為他們提供支持。 Spirit公司很榮幸成為Valor團隊的一員。

The Spirit National Defense Prototype Center, NDPC, continues to support development, prototyping and industrialization capabilities to support our growth strategy. In addition to the NDPC, we have continued to repurpose some of our excess wide-body capacity to defense applications. So far, approximately 1.2 million square feet in Wichita has been transitioned to our Defense & Space business. This includes the establishment of our defense manufacturing center, which will provide significant classified machining capability with full-size determinate assembly accuracy. The ability of our team to be involved from the initial concept design to production is critical to optimizing how we can support customers on future programs.

Spirit 國防原型中心 (NDPC) 持續支援開發、原型設計和工業化能力，以支援我們的成長策略。除 NDPC 外，我們還持續將部分過剩的寬體飛機產能重新用於國防應用。迄今為止，位於威奇託的約 120 萬平方英尺的場地已轉用於我們的國防與航太業務。這包括建立國防製造中心，該中心將提供強大的機密加工能力，並具備全尺寸確定的組裝精度。我們團隊從初始概念設計到生產的全程參與能力，對於優化我們未來專案的客戶支援至關重要。

We closed out the year with the acquisition of [T.E.A.M.], a small company in Rhode Island that has a great set of technologies that complements our capabilities. The 100,000 square foot facility and the 35 talented individuals brings some unique 3D composite weaving technology and equipment to enhance our portfolio that will support hypersonic weapon development as well as other new product development opportunities. I'm proud of the Defense & Space business that we've been building at Spirit. It's on track to our target of $1 billion in Defense & Space revenue by 2025 with 12% to 14% segment margins.

我們以收購[T.E.A.M.]結束了這一年的營運。 T.E.A.M.是一家位於羅德島的小公司，擁有一系列能夠補充我們自身實力的優秀技術。這家佔地10萬平方英尺的工廠和35名優秀員工帶來了一些獨特的3D複合材料編織技術和設備，增強了我們的產品組合，這將支援高超音速武器的研發以及其他新產品的開發機會。我為我們在Spirit公司打造的國防與航太業務感到自豪。該業務正朝著我們2025年國防與航太業務收入達到10億美元、利潤率達到12%至14%的目標穩步前進。

And I look forward to working with our new Spirit Defense & Space leader, Mark Miklos as he takes over on April 1.

我期待與我們新的精神防禦與太空領導人馬克·米克洛斯 (Mark Miklos) 合作，他將於 4 月 1 日上任。

Back to you, Tom.

回到你身邊，湯姆。

Thanks, Duane. Our aftermarket business also had a strong year with revenue growth of 30% at 19% margins. The aftermarket team continued to build out our strategy to expand our MRO capabilities in key geographic regions.

謝謝，Duane。我們的售後市場業務今年也表現強勁，營收成長30%，利潤率19%。售後市場團隊繼續推進我們的策略，以擴大我們在關鍵地區的MRO能力。

In Asia, we established multiple ways to support customers in that region. In April, we signed an agreement with GAMECO to be the Spirit authorized repair center in China. Then in September, we formed a joint venture with Evergreen Technologies Corporation in Taiwan and signed an MOU with Malaysia Airlines Berhad to establish repair services for nacelles and flight control surfaces.

在亞洲，我們建立了多種方式來支持該地區的客戶。今年4月，我們與GAMECO簽署協議，成為Spirit在中國的授權維修中心。隨後，9月，我們與台灣長榮科技股份有限公司成立了合資公司，並與馬來西亞航空有限公司簽署了諒解備忘錄，以建立發動機艙和飛行控制面的維修服務。

We also signed a partnership with Boeing to provide repair services for the MAX on flight control surfaces, nacelles and thrust reversers. We closed out the year with an MOU with Joramco, the engineering arm of Dubai Aerospace Enterprise to explore how to bring a range of composite and metallic aerostructure repairs and services to customers in the Mid-East region.

我們也與波音公司簽署了合作協議，為 737 MAX 提供飛行控制面、引擎室和反推裝置的維修服務。年末，我們與杜拜航空航太企業旗下的工程部門 Joramco 簽署了諒解備忘錄，共同探討如何為中東地區的客戶提供一系列複合材料和金屬飛機結構維修和服務。

We continue to target $500 million of revenue for our aftermarket business with margins in excess of 20% by 2025.

我們繼續設定目標，到 2025 年，售後市場業務的收入將達到 5 億美元，利潤率將超過 20%。

I'll now turn it over to Mark to take you through more details on our results. Mark?

現在我將把時間交給馬克，他將會向你們詳細介紹我們的成果。馬克？

Thank you, Tom, and good morning, everyone. We experienced significant pressure in 2022 due to production schedule volatility of constrained supply chain, ongoing inflation and labor pressures, including shortages, high levels of attrition and increased training for our new hires. These challenges have resulted in higher-than-anticipated costs and disruptions in our factories.

謝謝湯姆，大家早安。 2022年，我們承受了巨大的壓力，原因包括供應鏈受限導致的生產計畫波動、持續的通貨膨脹以及勞動力壓力（包括短缺、高流失率以及新員工培訓增加）。這些挑戰導致成本高於預期，並導致工廠營運中斷。

We expect some of these pressures to continue into 2023, particularly those related to the supply chain and training new employees. We enter 2023 strongly focused on execution and getting our factories and people in place to stabilize and support higher production rates.

我們預計其中一些壓力將持續到2023年，尤其是與供應鏈和新員工培訓相關的壓力。進入2023年，我們將高度重視執行力，並全力以赴地做好工廠和人員的部署，以穩定並支援更高的生產力。

Now let me take you through the details of our 2022 financial results. Let's start with revenue on Slide 2. Revenue for the year was $5 billion, up 27% from 2021. This improvement was primarily due to higher production on the 737, A320 and A220 programs as well as increased aftermarket and Defense & Space revenue partially offset by lower production on the 747 and 787 programs. The Defense & Space segment had a strong year with top line growth of 11%, increasing revenue by about $65 million. Aftermarket also displayed strong execution with revenue growth of 30% over 2021 levels.

現在，讓我為您詳細介紹我們2022年的財務表現。首先從幻燈片2的收入開始。全年營收為50億美元，較2021年成長27%。這一成長主要得益於737、A320和A220專案產量的提高，以及售後市場和防務與航太收入的成長，但747和787專案產量的下降部分抵消了這一成長。防務與航太部門今年表現強勁，營收成長11%，營收增加約6,500萬美元。售後市場也表現出色，營收較2021年成長了30%。

Turning to deliveries. Overall, narrow-body deliveries in 2022 were 37% higher than 2021. We delivered 119 more 737 units and 124 more A320 units compared to 2021. Alternatively, wide-body program deliveries were down 6% compared to 2021, mainly driven by 17 less 787 units in 2022. Overall, 2022 deliveries increased 27% year-over-year.

談到交付情況。整體而言，2022 年窄體飛機的交付量比 2021 年高出 37%。與 2021 年相比，我們多交付了 119 架 737 飛機和 124 架 A320 飛機。另一方面，寬體飛機專案的交付量與 2021 年相比下降了 6%，主要原因是 2022 年 787 飛機減少了 17 架。總體而言，2022 年的交付量年增了 27%。

Now let's turn to earnings per share on Slide 3. We reported earnings per share of negative $5.21 compared to negative $5.19 in 2021. Excluding certain items, adjusted EPS was negative $2.81 compared to negative $3.46 in the prior year. Operating margin was negative 6% compared to negative 12% in 2021. The improvement over 2021 is due to higher production rates, specifically on the 737 program, partially offset by continued disruption in our factories, resulting from part shortages and labor challenges which led to out-of-sequence work and operational instability.

現在我們來看幻燈片3上的每股盈餘。我們報告的每股收益為負5.21美元，而2021年為負5.19美元。扣除某些項目後，調整後每股收益為負2.81美元，而上年度為負3.46美元。營業利益率為負6%，而2021年為負12%。 2021年業績的改善得益於生產率的提高，尤其是737項目的生產率，但部分抵消了我們工廠持續的停工。零件短缺和勞動力短缺導致生產順序混亂和營運不穩定。

Full year forward losses totaled $250 million and unfavorable cumulative catch-up adjustments were $28 million, this compared to $242 million of forward losses and $5 million of unfavorable cumulative catch-up adjustments in 2021.

全年遠期虧損總計 2.5 億美元，不利累計補補調整為 2,800 萬美元，而 2021 年的遠期虧損為 2.42 億美元，不利累計補補調整為 500 萬美元。

Specifically related to the fourth quarter of 2022, we incurred $114 million of forward losses, which were primarily driven by the 787 and A350 programs. The 787 forward loss of $38 million recorded in the fourth quarter was largely driven by higher cost estimates related to restarting the factory in ramping production as well as new build requirements on each unit resulting from the fit-and-finish issues. We forecast the cash impact from this loss to occur over the next 4 years.

具體到2022年第四季度，我們產生了1.14億美元的預期虧損，主要源自於787和A350項目。第四季787專案預期虧損3,800萬美元，主要原因是工廠復工以提高產量，以及組裝和組裝問題導致每架飛機都需要新建，導致成本估算增加。我們預測，該虧損的現金影響將在未來四年內顯現。

The A350 charge of $67 million in the fourth quarter of '22 was a result of additional costs related to labor and part shortages, manufacturing quality issues and additional freight to support our customer deliveries. In addition, during the fourth quarter, we experienced disruption resulting from transferring the production of parts from a supplier into our Kinston facility. This resulted in additional disruptions to our factory, and we have now initiated a recovery plan, which will result in additional costs. Approximately $40 million of that forward loss will have an impact to cash in 2023.

2022年第四季A350飛機的6700萬美元費用，是由於勞動力和零件短缺、製造品質問題以及為支持客戶交付而增加的運費等額外成本造成的。此外，在第四季度，我們將零件生產從供應商轉移到金斯頓工廠，導致生產中斷。這導致工廠進一步中斷，我們現在已啟動恢復計劃，這將產生額外成本。其中約4000萬美元的遠期損失將在2023年對現金產生影響。

Additionally, in the fourth quarter of 2022, we recognized unfavorable cumulative catch-up adjustments of $59 million, primarily driven by the 737 and A320 programs. On the 737 program, we experienced disruptions due to labor inefficiencies and continued part shortages, which exacerbated behind schedule hours and our auto sequence work. To catch up and prepare for the next rate break, we've made the decision to accelerate the hiring and training of employees to support a rate of 42 aircrafts per month. This investment has a near-term impact on the program's profitability and cash flow, but we believe it is important to improve Spirit's production efficiencies as well as prepare for higher production rates in the future.

此外，在2022年第四季度，我們確認了5,900萬美元的不利累計追趕調整，主要受737和A320專案的影響。在737專案中，由於勞動力效率低下和持續的零件短缺，我們的生產受到了乾擾，這加劇了工時落後和自動排序工作的延誤。為了趕上進度並為下一次降價做好準備，我們決定加快員工招募和培訓，以支援每月42架飛機的生產力。這項投資將在短期內對專案的獲利能力和現金流產生影響，但我們認為，這對於提高Spirit的生產效率以及為未來更高的生產力做好準備至關重要。

The A320 programs unfavorable adjustment was driven by operational and supply chain disruptions and increased costs related to material, freight and labor. 2022 earnings also included $157 million of excess capacity costs, a decrease of $60 million over 2021.

A320 專案的不利調整是由於營運和供應鏈中斷以及與材料、運費和勞動力相關的成本增加。 2022 年的收益還包括 1.57 億美元的過剩產能成本，比 2021 年減少了 6,000 萬美元。

Other expense were $14 million compared to other income of $147 million in 2021. This variance was primarily due to pension plan termination activities that were undertaken separately in each of the years. 2021 included a curtailment gain of $61 million resulting from the closure of the defined benefit plans acquired as part of the Bombardier acquisition. And in 2022, we terminated the frozen U.S. pension value plan A, which resulted in noncash charges of $108 million.

其他支出為1400萬美元，而2021年的其他收入為1.47億美元。這一差異主要歸因於每年單獨進行的退休金計劃終止活動。 2021年包括因收購龐巴迪而獲得的固定收益計畫終止而產生的6,100萬美元的縮減收益。 2022年，我們終止了凍結的美國退休金價值計畫A，導致非現金費用1.08億美元。

We anticipate additional pretax noncash charge in the first quarter of 2023 for the final settlement accounting as well as tax-related charges for the income and excise taxes, which we expect to conclude no later than the second quarter.

我們預計 2023 年第一季將產生額外的稅前非現金費用，用於最終結算會計以及所得稅和消費稅的稅務相關費用，我們預計這些費用將不遲於第二季完成。

Now turning to free cash flow on Slide 4. Free cash flow usage for the year was $516 million, in line with the range we communicated on our third quarter call. Free cash flow in both years were impacted by several large onetime cash items, including a $300 million tax refund received in 2021, a payment of $154 million to the Belfast pension plan in 2021 as well as the repayment in 2022 of $123 million Boeing 737 advance that we received in 2019.

現在就來看幻燈片4上的自由現金流。本年度自由現金流使用量為5.16億美元，與我們在第三季電話會議上溝通的範圍一致。兩年的自由現金流都受到幾項大額一次性現金項目的影響，包括2021年收到的3億美元退稅、2021年向貝爾法斯特養老金計劃支付的1.54億美元，以及2022年償還我們在2019年收到的1.23億美元波音737預付款。

In addition, 2022 free cash flow was negatively impacted by production schedule changes; the Ukraine, Russian conflict; headwinds from forward losses; labor constraints; supply chain part shortages and inflationary pressures. There were also several other cash items in 2022 that will not recur going forward, including $38 million of a grant received from the AMJP program, and $27 million of net pension-related benefits from the termination of the pension value plan B.

此外，2022 年的自由現金流受到生產計畫變更、烏克蘭與俄羅斯衝突、遠期虧損帶來的不利影響、勞動力限制、供應鏈零件短缺以及通膨壓力等因素的負面影響。 2022 年還有其他幾項現金項目未來不會重複出現，包括從 AMJP 計劃獲得的 3800 萬美元撥款，以及因退休金增值計劃 B 終止而獲得的 2700 萬美元淨養老金相關福利。

Looking to 2023, we plan to deliver approximately 420 737 units and 650 to 680 A320s during the year, which will be the largest driver of cash flow improvement. Additionally, 2023 will be positively impacted by $120 million to $140 million of surplus cash from the termination of the pension value Plan A, partially offset by higher interest payments and a previously reserved litigation payment, which has been appealed. Incorporating all items including the pension surplus cash, we are targeting 2023 free cash flow to be better than breakeven, reflected estimated capital expenditures in the range of $125 million to $150 million.

展望2023年，我們計劃在年內交付約420架737飛機和650至680架A320飛機，這將成為現金流改善的最大驅動力。此外，退休金價值計畫A終止後產生的1.2億至1.4億美元盈餘現金將對2023年產生正面影響，但部分抵銷了更高的利息支出和先前預留的訴訟賠償金（該賠償金已提起上訴）。計入包括退休金盈餘現金在內的所有項目，我們的目標是2023年的自由現金流優於損益平衡，反映的預計資本支出在1.25億至1.5億美元之間。

We anticipate the first quarter free cash flow to be the weakest and cash flow improving throughout the last 3 quarters of the year, partially due to normal seasonality of our cash flows.

我們預計第一季的自由現金流將是最弱的，而今年最後三個季度的現金流將會改善，部分原因是我們的現金流有正常的季節性。

With that, let's now turn to our cash and debt balances on Slide 5. We ended the year with $659 million of cash and $3.9 billion of debt. These balances reflect items I previously listed as drivers to free cash flow in addition to the $319 million payment to settle the repayable investment agreement in the first half of 2022 and the refinancing activity we completed during the fourth quarter of 2022, including refinancing and extending maturities on $800 million of existing debt and upsizing by $100 million.

現在，讓我們來看看幻燈片5上的現金和債務餘額。截至年底，我們的現金餘額為6.59億美元，債務餘額為39億美元。這些餘額反映了我先前列出的自由現金流驅動因素，以及2022年上半年支付的3.19億美元用於結算可償還投資協議，以及我們在2022年第四季度完成的再融資活動，包括對8億美元現有債務進行再融資和延長到期期限，以及增加1億美元債務規模。

Now let's discuss our segment performance, starting with the Commercial segment on Slide 6. In 2022, commercial revenue was $4.1 billion, an increase of 30% compared to 2021, primarily due to higher production volumes on the 737, A220 and A320 programs, partially offset by lower production on the 747 and 787 programs. Operating margin was negative 2% compared to negative 7% in 2021, driven by higher volumes on the 737.

現在我們來討論各部門的業績，先從幻燈片6上的商用飛機部門開始。 2022年，商用飛機收入為41億美元，較2021年增長30%，主要得益於737、A220和A320項目的產量增加，但747和787項目的產量下降部分抵消了這一增長。營業利益率為-2%，而2021年為-7%，這主要得益於737產量的增加。

As I previously mentioned, the changes in estimates during the year included forward losses of $244 million and unfavorable cumulative catch-up adjustments of $30 million. In comparison, during 2021, the segment recorded $227 million of forward losses and $6 million of unfavorable cumulative catchups. The segment had excess cost of $150 million compared to $207 million in 2021. Additionally, the segment recognized $38 million of charges related to the Russian sanctions, which had an impact during 2022.

正如我之前提到的，本年度的估計變化包括2.44億美元的遠期損失和3000萬美元的不利累計補差調整。相較之下，該部門在2021年錄得2.27億美元的遠期損失和600萬美元的不利累計補差調整。該部門的超額成本為1.5億美元，而2021年為2.07億美元。此外，該部門確認了與俄羅斯制裁相關的3,800萬美元費用，這對2022年產生了影響。

Now let's turn to the Defense & Space segment on Slide 7. Defense & Space revenue grew to $650 million or 11% higher than 2021 due to higher development program activity and increased P-8 production. Operating margin for the year increased to 11% compared to 8% in 2021. The improvement was due to higher classified program profit and the absence of nonrecurring charges taken into 2021. In 2022, the segment recorded forward losses of $6 million and excess capacity cost of $8 million compared to forward losses of $14 million and excess capacity cost of $11 million in 2021.

現在我們來看幻燈片7上的國防與航太部門。由於開發案活動增加及P-8產量增加，國防與航太部門的收入成長至6.5億美元，較2021年成長11%。全年營業利益率增至11%，而2021年為8%。這項改善得益於機密項目利潤的提高，以及2021年未計入非經常性費用。 2022年，該部門的預期虧損為600萬美元，產能過剩成本為800萬美元，而2021年的預期虧損為1,400萬美元，產能過剩成本為1,100萬美元。

For our aftermarket segment results, let's turn to Slide 8. Aftermarket revenues were $311 million, up 30% compared to 2021, primarily due to higher spare part sales as well as higher maintenance, repair in overall activity. Operating margin for the year increased to 19% compared to 21% in 2021 due to onetime inventory adjustment charges as well as losses of $4.2 million related to the Russian sanction.

看看我們售後市場部門的業績，請翻到第8張幻燈片。售後市場收入為3.11億美元，較2021年增長30%，主要得益於備件銷售額的增長以及整體維護和維修業務的增加。由於一次性庫存調整費用以及與俄羅斯制裁相關的420萬美元損失，本年度營業利潤率由2021年的21%上升至19%。

2022 was a more challenging year than we expected, production schedule volatility, a disrupted supply chain, labor constraints and ongoing inflation resulted in increased costs, forward loss charges and instability in our factories. Despite the many challenges during the year, there were several things that went right. Many of our financial metrics have reflected continued improvement over the last 2 years, and I expect the recovery to continue going forward.

2022年是比我們預期更具挑戰性的一年，生產計畫波動、供應鏈中斷、勞動力限制以及持續的通貨膨脹導致成本上升、遠期損失費用增加以及工廠不穩定。儘管這一年面臨諸多挑戰，但仍有幾件事進展順利。過去兩年，我們的許多財務指標反映出持續改善，我預計復甦動能將持續下去。

We have announced wins in our Defense & Space and aftermarket segments, and we have restructured our debt, including executing on refinancing activity, which has extended our maturities and settled a repayable investment agreement.

我們宣布了國防與航太以及售後市場領域的勝利，並且重組了我們的債務，包括執行再融資活動，這延長了我們的期限並達成了可償還的投資協議。

As we enter 2023, we are working with our suppliers and our internal teams to stabilize production and position ourselves for higher production rates. The focus on operational execution as well as optimizing our costs should enable us to improve profitability and cash flow as we move throughout 2023.

邁入2023年，我們正與供應商和內部團隊攜手合作，穩定生產，為提高生產效率做好準備。專注於營運執行以及優化成本，將有助於我們在2023年提升獲利能力和現金流。

Now let me turn it back over to Tom for some closing comments.

現在讓我把話題轉回給湯姆，讓他發表一些結束語。

Thanks, Mark. Demand remains strong in the global aerospace industry. However, it was a challenging year to navigate the supply chain and other challenges we faced. We worked hard to make progress to stabilize at higher production rates, and we were pleased to close the year with some positive results, which will provide a strong foundation for 2023.

謝謝，馬克。全球航空航太業的需求依然強勁。然而，過去的一年對於我們應對供應鏈和其他挑戰充滿挑戰。我們努力在更高的生產力上取得穩定進展，並很高興在年底取得了一些積極的成果，這將為2023年奠定堅實的基礎。

As we enter 2023, we expect free cash flow to be positive as we benefit from increased narrow-body production rates and continue to work on improving our labor productivity and stabilizing our supply chain. We have seen some improvements from the depths of the pandemic but expect that there will still be some volatility as the recovery continues. After 4 challenging years since the first MAX crash in 2018, we see some positive trends in the market that will benefit Spirit. Domestic traffic has recovered to 98% of what it was compared to 2019 levels, which will benefit narrow-body aircraft production. And 85% of Spirit's backlog is narrow-body aircraft.

邁入2023年，我們預期自由現金流將為正值，這得益於窄體飛機生產率的提升，以及我們持續致力於提高勞動生產力和穩定供應鏈。我們已經看到疫情的深度好轉，但預計隨著經濟復甦的持續，仍將存在一些波動。自2018年首架737 MAX墜機事故以來，經歷了充滿挑戰的四年，我們看到市場出現了一些利好，這將有利於Spirit航空。國內客運量已恢復到2019年水準的98%，將有利於窄體飛機的生產。 Spirit航空85%的訂單積壓訂單是窄體飛機。

Boeing has said that they do not want to develop a new aircraft until 2035, which is good news for Spirit since the MAX and all of our other Boeing programs will continue for many years to come. China has started to fly the MAX again. Both China Southern and Hainan have both made flights, which is very good news for that program and offers upside as China brings the stored MAX aircraft out of storage, starts taking deliveries again and then eventually places new orders.

波音公司表示，他們希望在2035年之前不開發新飛機，這對Spirit航空來說是個好消息，因為737 MAX以及我們所有其他波音項目都將在未來很多年持續下去。中國已恢復737 MAX的飛行。中國南方航空和海南航空都已完成737 MAX的試飛，這對該項目來說是個好消息，並且隨著中國將停飛的737 MAX飛機從倉庫中取出，重新開始接收交付，並最終下達新的訂單，這將帶來利好。

Boeing just announced that they're starting a fourth 737 MAX production line in Everett, which highlights their commitment to increasing rates on the MAX and that Spirit's biggest and most profitable program. And organic diversification in our Defense & Space segments and aftermarket is progressing well.

波音公司剛剛宣布將在埃弗雷特啟動第四條737 MAX生產線，這凸顯了他們致力於提高MAX產量的決心，而這同時也是Spirit航空規模最大、利潤最高的項目。此外，我們在國防與航太領域以及售後市場的有機多元化發展也進展順利。

We also have some good growth opportunities in commercial including freighters for Airbus and Boeing eVTOL opportunities and other machining opportunities. For 2023, our 3 primary objectives will be what we are calling the 3 Rs. First, we must realize the production rate increases across all of our programs while maintaining a safe workplace and improving quality.

我們在商用領域也擁有一些良好的成長機會，包括空中巴士和波音eVTOL貨機的訂單，以及其他機械加工的訂單。 2023年，我們的三大主要目標，也就是我們所謂的「3R」目標。首先，我們必須在保持工作場所安全並提高品質的同時，實現所有專案的生產力提升。

Second, we have to reduce structural costs to position Spirit to be profitable and cash flow positive even if production rates do not go up as fast as currently projected. We have assigned a senior executive and team of leaders to our cost optimization project focused in 3 areas: operations, infrastructure and supply chain.

其次，我們必須降低結構性成本，以確保Spirit即使生產力成長速度不如目前預期，也能獲利和正現金流。我們已指派一位高階主管和一支領導團隊負責成本優化項目，並專注於三個領域：營運、基礎設施和供應鏈。

In the infrastructure area, our target is to reduce 1,000 indirect positions from our 2023 headcount plan through a combination of reductions, attrition and closing open hiring requisitions.

在基礎設施領域，我們的目標是透過裁員、自然減員和終止公開招聘申請等方式，從 2023 年員工總數計劃中減少 1,000 個間接職位。

Third, we want to reenergize our workforce so that we are ready to meet the challenges ahead as fast as we can, as we face the fastest growing rates in the history of the aviation industry.

第三，我們希望重新激發員工隊伍的活力，以便我們能夠盡快準備好迎接未來的挑戰，因為我們面臨著航空業史上最快的成長率。

With that, we will be happy to take your questions.

我們將很高興回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Our first question comes from David Strauss from Barclays.

我們的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的戴維‧史特勞斯。

Great. Free cash flow. So I guess prior to today, you were seeing better than breakeven without the pension cash gain, now you're seeing kind of better than breakeven, but including that, I guess what changed in terms of your forecast? Because it looks like now 420 on the MAX would be better than what you were talking about before, which I think was 31 a month. So if you can just help us reconcile what changed now versus your prior free cash flow guidance.

太好了。自由現金流。所以，我想在今天之前，如果沒有退休金現金收益，您的業績比損益平衡要好，現在您的業績也比盈虧平衡好一些。但算上退休金現金收益，您的預測有什麼變化嗎？因為現在看來，最高工資420英鎊比您之前說的要好，我之前說的是每月31英鎊。所以，您能否幫助我們檢查現在的變化與您先前的自由現金流預測之間的差異？

Yes. So thanks, David. A lot of things have changed really since we made some of those forecasts. We have seen higher costs across the board in things like freight, utilities and logistics as well as labor.

是的。謝謝，大衛。自從我們做出這些預測以來，很多事情確實改變了。我們看到貨運、水力、物流以及勞動力等方面的成本全面上漲。

In addition, as we are looking at the -- just the overall cost for production, those are going up. So we mentioned that we've, for example, hired now up to 42 aircraft per month on the MAX program. That's in advance of any rate increases to that level.

此外，就我們目前所關注的——僅僅是生產總成本——這些成本都在上漲。例如，我們提到，目前我們每月為 MAX 專案租用的飛機數量已達 42 架。這比任何費率上漲都要早。

And the reason we did that was to prepare ourselves for higher rates in the future. That means it's a higher investment now. And so those are the types of pressures and headwinds that make us to conservatively estimate that we'll be breakeven now, including the pension benefit of $120 million to $150 million.

我們這樣做是為了因應未來更高的利率。這意味著現在的投資額度更高。正是這些壓力和阻力讓我們保守估計，現在我們將實現收支平衡，其中包括1.2億至1.5億美元的退休金福利。

Mark, anything else to add?

馬克，還有什麼要補充的嗎？

David, I think Tom summarized it right, we continue to see instability in our factories. We're bringing in much higher headcount to support our 737 production. And that is going to have a negative impact on 2023 cost and cash flow. And so that is the first headwind, an investment we need to make to drive stability in the factory and meet our delivery commitments to our customer.

大衛，我認為湯姆總結得沒錯，我們工廠的不穩定因素持續存在。為了支持737的生產，我們正在大幅增加員工數量。這將對2023年的成本和現金流量產生負面影響。所以，這是第一個阻力，也是我們需要進行的投資，以促進工廠的穩定，並履行我們對客戶的交付承諾。

Secondly, I had mentioned some challenges in our Kinston facility, and we took an additional $60-plus million forward loss. And I had mentioned that, that recovery is going to require us to hire more people, expedite shipments and incur some additional costs to support our customer requirements and indicated that, that cash impact will be $40 million, which was not incorporated in our last overall discussion.

其次，我之前提到了金斯頓工廠面臨的一些挑戰，我們額外承擔了6000多萬美元的預期損失。我還提到，復甦需要我們僱用更多員工，加快發貨速度，並承擔一些額外成本來滿足客戶需求，並指出現金影響將達到4000萬美元，這在我們上次的總體討論中沒有被納入。

And then I'll also tell you, as we think about the supply chain that we have here, I think it's going to put a little bit of pressure on our working capital. We're needing to bring in additional inventory, provide some buffers ahead of the rate breaks, probably more so than we anticipated as the stability continues here. So at this point in time, it's early in the year. We've just started. We want to make sure that we're providing you with some information that we can meet, and we'll continue to update you as we progress throughout the year.

然後我還要告訴你們，考慮到我們現有的供應鏈，我認為這會對我們的營運資金造成一些壓力。我們需要增加庫存，在利率下調之前提供一些緩衝，隨著市場持續穩定，我們可能需要的緩衝可能比我們預期的更多。所以現在才剛開始，今年才剛開始。我們希望確保能夠提供一些我們所能提供的信息，並且我們將在全年持續更新。

We'll take our next question from Cai von Rumohr from Cowen.

我們將回答來自 Cowen 的 Cai von Rumohr 提出的下一個問題。

Yes. So the pattern of cash flow throughout the year, maybe give us some color there. Is it all 3 quarters of red ink and then 1 quarter of black ink, if you just break even? And then related to that, you delivered 33 737s in January. Is that a sustainable rate? Or is that just -- they were sort of pretty much done in the fourth quarter? And because the inventory bulged and now they're just getting out the door. So that's kind of tough to build so that we're not going to get a huge benefit from delivering planes in the first quarter.

是的。所以，全年的現金流模式或許能給我們一些參考。如果你們只是收支平衡，是不是三個季度都是虧損，然後只有一個季度獲利？與此相關的是，你們一月交付了33架737飛機。這是一個可持續的成長速度嗎？還是說——它們在第四季就基本完成了交付？而且由於庫存膨脹，現在飛機才剛出廠。所以，要保持這種成長速度有點困難，所以我們不會從第一季的飛機交付中獲得巨大的收益。

Yes. So Cai, as we said it a little bit earlier, cash flow in Q1 is going to be our toughest quarter. And then the cash flow in Q2, Q3 and Q4 should be positive. That's the pattern that we are anticipating. Normally, the Q1 is our hardest because of several onetime cash payments that happen just in the first quarter from a seasonality standpoint.

是的。蔡先生，正如我們之前所說，第一季的現金流將是我們最艱難的一個季度。第二、三、四季的現金流應該會是正值。這是我們預期的模式。通常情況下，第一季是最艱難的季度，因為從季節性角度來看，第一季會有幾筆一次性現金支付。

In terms of the production level for January, 33% is a run rate projection. As we said, we're going to produce about 420 MAX units for 2023. The plan for Q1 is about 105. So it's just basically right on schedule throughout the year. We do expect some rate breaks in the back half of the year. But the total, again, is 420 units with 105 in Q1, and we started off the year with 33 in January.

就1月份的產量而言，33%是按計畫進行的預測。正如我們所說，2023年我們將生產約420輛MAX。第一季的計劃是105輛左右。所以，全年產量基本上是按計畫進行。我們確實預計下半年產量會下降。但總產量仍是420輛，其中第一季生產了105輛，年初一月份產量為33輛。

If you mentioned the one-timers in the first quarter, could you give us some color on what those are because interest basically is -- gets hit in the second and fourth quarter.

如果您提到第一季的一次性支出，您能否向我們詳細說明這些支出是什麼，因為利息基本上是在第二季和第四季受到打擊。

Yes. Sure, Cai. I mean the first quarter always is typically from a seasonality standpoint, our worst cash flow. A lot of that has to do with shutting down production at the end of the year. And so what happens is, we start off the year, we pay bills but we go the first week or 2 without any cash receipts from all of our customers.

是的，蔡先生，當然。我的意思是，從季節性角度來看，第一季通常是我們現金流最差的季度。這很大程度上與年底停產有關。所以，年初的時候，我們付了帳單，但第一週或第二週，我們所有客戶都沒有收到任何現金。

And so I would say that is the biggest negative as it relates to our seasonality in the first quarter. Last 7 to 10 days of the year, we don't make any deliveries. And therefore, it takes a couple of weeks for us to start delivering units and starting to get paid. And so cash receipts are always the lowest in the first quarter, but you still have 13 payment cycles in the first quarter, and therefore, that's what puts overall pressure on our cash flow.

所以我認為這是最大的負面影響，因為它與我們第一季的季節性有關。一年中的最後7到10天，我們沒有任何發貨。因此，我們需要幾週時間才能開始出貨並開始收到貨款。所以，第一季的現金收入總是最低的，但第一季仍然有13個付款週期，因此，這給我們的現金流帶來了整體壓力。

There's some incentive-related type compensated related things that get paid out in the first quarter that don't repeat. But you're correct. As it relates to the big headwinds on cash as it relates to interest is going to occur in the second and fourth quarters.

有一些與激勵相關的補償項目在第一季支付，但不會重複。但你說得對。這與現金和利息相關的巨大阻力有關，這將在第二季和第四季出現。

We have our next question, comes from Sheila Kahyaoglu from Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

So I just wanted to ask us, how are you thinking about the cash burn on the 787 just given the forward losses and what the contribution is in 2023, given the target to deliver between 40 and 45 shipsets. Can you hear me?

所以我想問一下，考慮到未來虧損，您如何看待787專案的現金消耗？考慮到交付40到45架飛機的目標，以及2023年的貢獻，您能聽到我說話嗎？

Yes.

是的。

We can hear you, Sheila.

我們能聽到你的聲音，希拉。

Okay. You heard the question...

好的。你聽到了這個問題…

Yes. Yes. 787 is cash burn. 787 right now still continues to burn cash on a per unit basis. Part of it is related to Boeing advance from several years ago that we send with each shipset. So it's about $450,000 per unit. And then on top of that, as I mentioned, with this new fit and finish, the set of requirements in the build process, is resulting in some more hours, which is creating some further drag in terms of the overall 787 program.

是的，沒錯。 787 確實在燒錢。目前，787 每架飛機仍在持續燒錢。部分原因是幾年前波音公司預付的款項，我們每架飛機都付了預付款。所以每架飛機大約 45 萬美元。此外，正如我所提到的，由於新的組裝和組裝要求，建造過程中的一系列要求導致工時增加，這進一步拖累了整個 787 專案。

We've reflected that in the forward loss that we announced in this quarter. But the 787 does continue to be a challenging program. We do have a price step-up at line unit 1405, where we go up to a higher price with Boeing. But until then, the program is going to continue to be negative as we continue to work our cost reduction programs.

我們已經在本季度公佈的預期虧損中反映了這一點。但787項目仍充滿挑戰。我們確實在1405號生產線上進行了價格上調，與波音的合作價格更高。但在此之前，由於我們仍在繼續實施成本削減計劃，該項目將繼續虧損。

Sheila, I would just add, I think you're going here. If you think about -- as Tom said, we're in a forward loss. So everybody understands that our costs are higher than the price and 787 consumes cash. So when you think about 2022, for most of the year, for a big portion of the year, production was stopped. And so we were incurring costs at the end of the day, you couldn't completely shut down the place, you still had to pay bills and some of the employees. So our cost per unit at the lower production in 2022 was significantly higher.

希拉，我想補充一下，我想你應該明白了。如果你仔細想想──就像湯姆說的，我們目前處於虧損狀態。大家都明白，我們的成本高於價格，而且787會消耗現金。所以，想想2022年，一年中的大部分時間，很大一部分時間，生產都停了。所以我們最終還是會產生成本，你不可能完全關閉工廠，你仍然需要支付帳單和一些員工的薪水。所以，2022年產量較低時，我們的單位成本高很多。

As we move into 2023, we are going to double production, which will help from a fixed cost standpoint and help reduce our cost per unit. And so when we think about cash flow, the consumption that we had in '22 versus '23, typically, as you build more units, that would put more pressure on your cash flow year-over-year. But with the doubling of production, when we think about the cash consumption in '22 on 787, how much cash we consumed at delivering 20 units versus how much cash we're going to consume at 45 units, I would say there's a little bit of pressure on cash flow in '23 compared to 2022, but that's how things shape up. We're going to bring the cost per unit down. Production starts back up. We're still losing money on it. Just a little less than what we lost in 2022. If that helps provide a little bit more clarity.

進入2023年，我們的產量將翻一番，這將有助於降低固定成本和單位成本。因此，當我們考慮現金流時，如果將2022年的消耗量與2023年的消耗量進行比較，通常情況下，隨著產量的增加，現金流的年比壓力也會更大。但隨著產量翻番，如果我們考慮2022年787的現金消耗量，即交付20架飛機時消耗的現金量與交付45架飛機時消耗的現金量進行比較，我認為2023年的現金流與2022年相比會略有壓力，但情況就是這樣。我們將降低單位成本。產量將恢復。我們仍在虧損，但比2022年的虧損略少。如果這有助於更清楚地說明情況的話。

Our next question comes from Ken Herbert from RBC.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Ken Herbert。

Mark or Tom, I just wanted to see if you could clarify. It sounds like on a per unit basis on the 737, you talked in the past about breakeven at 31 a month, looks like that number is just creeping up with obviously the incremental cost around staffing and supply chain disruptions. Can you level set us now on how we should think about that for the 737, maybe sort of where we are today and where you expect it to be at the end of the year?

馬克或湯姆，我只是想看看你們能否解釋一下。聽起來，就737的單機成本而言，你們之前提到每月31架飛機的損益平衡，現在看來，由於人員配備和供應鏈中斷帶來的成本增加，這個數字還在緩慢上升。你們能否就737的損益平衡問題，談談我們目前的狀況以及你們預計年底的損益平衡點？

Well, can I think -- it is true that we are seeing higher levels of cost on the 737 program right now, in particular, because we've overstaffed it to get ready for higher rate breaks. And we've also seen some increases in cost in things like utilities and logistics and even some labor costs as well as supply chain.

嗯，我想——目前737項目的成本確實在上升，尤其是因為我們為了應對更高的費率而人手過剩。此外，公用事業、物流、甚至一些勞動力成本以及供應鏈成本也都有所增加。

So we said that in the past that once we got to 31 aircraft per month, that would be breakeven. This year, we're going to -- basically, we started the year off at 31%, and we're going to continue. We have a couple of rate breaks later in the year, and we're saying that we're going to be breakeven. So we do have some additional units in this year, but we'll see how everything flows out in terms of how much better we can do.

所以我們過去說過，只要達到每月31架飛機的產量，就能達到損益兩平。今年，我們基本上會——年初的產量是31%，而且會繼續維持下去。今年稍後我們會有幾次降價，我們的目標是實現損益平衡。所以，今年我們確實有一些新增飛機，但我們會觀察一切進展，看看我們能做得有多好。

But I would say that we said that 31 aircraft per month, we get back to breakeven. This year, we're going to be consistently at 31 aircraft per month plus some at the back end of the year, and we will be breakeven. All that said, as I said, there are some higher costs, no doubt about it in the system, which is putting pressure and we're working to offset those. What will help, though, is as we continue to go up in rate, we'll absorb more of the fixed cost, and we will naturally improve the margin as the rate goes up.

但我想說，我們說過，每月生產31架飛機，我們就能達到損益兩平。今年，我們將穩定維持每月31架飛機的生產量，並在年底再增加一些，最終實現損益兩平。儘管如此，正如我所說，系統中確實存在一些成本上升，這毫無疑問，這帶來了壓力，我們正在努力抵消這些成本。不過，隨著運價持續上漲，我們將吸收更多固定成本，利潤率自然也會隨之提高，這將有所幫助。

Yes, Ken, I would just say that the single biggest driver and the difference between being breakeven and the situation we're in now is the instability in the factory. Once we get to stable, we get the out-of-sequence work built down and behind schedule within the control limits will be right back to our previous expectations of being breakeven at 31, but there's a lot of cost at this point in time, an investment that we're making to drive the instability down in the factory to get the factory back within its control limits.

是的，肯，我想說，最大的驅動因素，也是我們之前實現損益平衡和現在狀況的差別，就是工廠的不穩定性。一旦我們達到穩定狀態，把那些不按順序完成的、進度落後的工作控制在可控範圍內，就能回到我們之前預期的31年盈虧平衡點。但目前我們投入了大量成本，我們正在進行一項投資，以降低工廠的不穩定性，讓工廠回到可控範圍內。

And that's why we're making the investment now here in the first quarter to get that cost down so that we're in a good position to generate positive cash flow going forward and to make sure that we're more than well prepared for the next breaks that happened in the back half of the year, right?

這就是為什麼我們在第一季進行投資以降低成本，以便我們能夠在未來產生正現金流，並確保我們為下半年發生的下一次中斷做好充分的準備，對嗎？

So the headcount we're investing in right now is to make us capable of 42 and that's where we expect to end the year. So by having those individuals in place now, they've got their training, they get experience on the job, and we'll be ready for those breaks as they happen.

因此，我們目前正在進行的員工投資，目標是將員工人數增加到42人，預計今年底也將達到這個數字。現在這些員工到位，他們已經接受了培訓，累積了工作經驗，我們也能隨時做好準備，應對可能出現的變化。

Great. Just one quick follow-up. Is the instability in the factory. It sounds like it's predominantly rate related to just the surge in hiring you're having to do to support rate down the road. But are you still seeing issues with supplier disruption and delays? Or is it predominantly just labor and the ramp-up and training associated with that?

好的。我只想快速跟進一下。工廠的不穩定是真的嗎？聽起來主要跟生產力有關，因為你們為了支撐未來的生產力，只好大幅增加招募。但是，你們是否仍然遇到供應商中斷和延誤的問題？還是主要跟勞動力以及隨之而來的產能提升和培訓有關？

No, it's both, Ken. Certainly, bringing all the new labor on and getting them trained is a factor, and we have seen higher levels of attrition. And it just -- it takes time for people to get up to the levels of productivity that we were at back in 2018 and 2019.

不，兩者都有，肯。當然，引進新員工並進行培訓是一個因素，而且我們已經看到了更高的員工流動率。而且，人們需要時間才能達到2018年和2019年的生產力水準。

They're getting there. It's just taking some time. But there's no doubt that there's also still supply chain disruption. We're seeing shortages probably 2 or 3x higher than when the factory is in steady state. And when you have those kind of supply chain shortages, it creates traveled work, it creates disruption in the factory, it exacerbates all the other issues.

他們正在努力，只是需要一些時間。但毫無疑問，供應鏈仍會中斷。我們看到的短缺情況可能是工廠穩定的2到3倍。當出現這種供應鏈短缺時，就會造成人員流動，造成工廠中斷，並加劇所有其他問題。

So it really is both things. It's the labor, but it's also the supply chain shortages. I would say though that the supply chain situation is under better control than we were last year. There are still challenges, but it's definitely improving. We can see that, but we just got to stay laser focused on it.

所以這其實是兩方面的問題。一方面是勞動力問題，另一方面是供應鏈短缺。不過我想說，供應鏈狀況比去年控制得更好了。雖然仍然存在挑戰，但肯定在改善。我們可以看到這一點，但我們必須保持高度專注。

We have our next question comes from Seth Seifman from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Seth Seifman。

Tom, I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about the guidance for 737 this year, the deliveries in the past, there have been plans for rate breaks later in the year that haven't really materialized, and that's left you guys in a tougher position in terms of kind of what you've told the investor community. So can you talk a little bit about your level of confidence in the rate breaks for later this year versus in the past?

湯姆，我想問您能否談談今年波音737的預期，以及過去的交付情況。今年稍後曾有降價計劃，但目前尚未實現。這讓你們在向投資者群體傳達訊息方面面臨更大的困難。您能否談談與過去相比，您對今年稍後降價的信心程度？

Well, you're right, the schedules have been more volatile over the past couple of years, but we've worked very closely with our customer Boeing in this case, to establish what the production rates are going to be for 2023. And they've been very firm and committed to saying that that's what they will take from us. And by now, their own production rates may vary, but we know fairly well at this point that will deliver in the 420 units and that Boeing is committed to take those.

嗯，你說得對，過去幾年的計畫安排比較不穩定，但這次我們與客戶波音公司密切合作，確定了2023年的生產力。他們非常堅定地承諾，這就是他們從我們這裡拿到的訂單。目前，他們自己的生產率可能會有所變化，但目前我們相當清楚，波音公司將交付420架飛機，並承諾接受這些訂單。

And that's going to involve 2 rate breaks later in the year to achieve it. But we're staffing for it now so that we can make it. So I would say there has been more volatility, but we're further along in the process post pandemic. And we do expect, with a fairly high degree of certainty at this point, that the projections that we have right now for the 420 units is what we'll deliver this year.

為了實現這一目標，我們將在今年稍後進行兩次降價。但我們現在正在為此配備人員，以便能夠實現這一目標。所以，我想說，雖然波動性增加，但疫情過後，我們的進程已經取得了進一步的進展。我們目前有相當高的把握預計，目前對420套房的預測，就是我們今年將實現的目標。

We have next question comes from George Shapiro from Shapiro Research.

下一個問題來自 Shapiro Research 的 George Shapiro。

Inventory was up $80 million in the fourth quarter from the third. Is that all pretty much due to the 19 37 deliveries that we missed?

第四季庫存比第三季增加了8000萬美元。這主要是因為我們錯過了1937次交貨嗎？

George, as always, you're very -- you're intuitive as it relates to the numbers, you know our numbers very well. I would say, for the most part, we had expected to make those deliveries and burn that inventory down. We brought the parts in to support 300 shipsets on the 737. A lot of them are pretty well down the road by the end of the year, but we just -- with the disruption and some shortages, we just couldn't push those out the door.

喬治，一如既往，你對數字的直覺非常敏銳，你對我們的數據非常了解。我想說，在大多數情況下，我們預計會完成這些交付並消耗庫存。我們購買的零件是為了支援737飛機上的300套船用零件。很多零件到年底就已經完成了，但由於供應中斷和一些短缺，我們實在無法及時出貨。

So the biggest driver to that growth in inventory between the third and fourth quarter was due to the fact that we didn't make those additional 20 deliveries by the end of the year.

因此，第三季和第四季庫存成長的最大驅動因素是我們在年底前沒有完成額外的 20 批交付。

Okay. And a follow-up, Mark, given the negative cum catches on the 320 in the 737, how much -- does that start to impact what you've said in the past that at 42 rate, you'd be able to get back to the 16% margins that you made in 2018?

好的。馬克，接下來我想問一下，考慮到 737 中 320 的負累積收益，這會對您之前所說的在 42% 的收益率下能夠恢復到 2018 年 16% 的利潤率產生多大影響？

I would say this, George, and we've talked about it the last couple of calls and in some of the earnings or some of the conferences that we've gone to. The 16.5% was a good proxy back in 2016. But I would tell you today, in 2023, when you think about the macroeconomic environment, when you think about the inflationary pressures overall from a cost standpoint, we're going to have to evaluate that at this point in time, I think that all of those things that I just talked about are going to put pressure on our ability to achieve the 16.5% margin. We're not backing off our goals to improve our segment margins and get back to the types of cash flow that you saw in 2019 and 2018.

喬治，我想說的是，我們在最近的幾次電話會議、一些財報會議或我們參加的一些會議上都討論過這個問題。 16.5%在2016年是一個不錯的指標。但我今天要告訴你，到了2023年，當你考慮宏觀經濟環境，當你從成本角度考慮整體通膨壓力時，我們必須在此時此刻進行評估。我認為我剛才提到的所有這些因素都會對我們實現16.5%利潤率的能力構成壓力。我們不會放棄提高部門利潤率、恢復到2019年和2018年那樣的現金流水準的目標。

But there are a lot of things that are outside of our control at this point in time that are putting pressure on overall margins. We know that our pricing is fixed with our customer. And so the way we have to drive those margins is to manage our costs and take advantage of the higher production rates in front of us. But we'll continue to -- as we move throughout the year, we tackle these higher production rates. First things first, we've got to get our factories stable, we've got to get ourselves to cash flow positive. And that's what we're really focused on here in 2023 and then improving on that as we move into 2024.

但目前有許多因素超出了我們的控制範圍，對整體利潤率帶來了壓力。我們知道我們的定價是與客戶約定的。因此，我們提高利潤率的方法是管理成本，並利用我們面臨的更高生產力。但我們會繼續下去——隨著全年的推進，我們會努力應對這些更高的生產力。首先，我們必須確保工廠穩定，實現正現金流。這正是我們在2023年真正關注的重點，並在邁向2024年時不斷改進。

And we'll dialogue with you guys every call on our progress to those plans. But at this point in time, there's a lot that has taken place between when we had those conversations now. But our goals are continuing to stretch ourselves to improve our overall profitability and make sure that we're providing great value to our investors.

我們會在每個電話會議中與大家溝通這些計畫的進度。但目前來看，距離我們進行這些對話已經過了許多時間。我們的目標是繼續努力，提高整體獲利能力，確保為投資者提供巨大的價值。

We have our next question comes from Kristine Liwag from Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Kristine Liwag。

On the 420 737 MAX production this year, can you guys talk about how you think about the inventory burn down that Boeing already had? Is that factored in? So could we see true production rate and final assembly be higher than the 420 for the year that you have?

關於今年420架737 MAX的產量，可以談談對波音公司現有庫存消耗的看法嗎？這是否被考慮進去了？那麼，我們能否看到實際生產率和最終組裝量高於今年420架的產量？

Right. Well, we have taken into account the inventory and the buffers. The 420 is what we will produce and deliver to Boeing and get paid for. Now we still have roughly 90 units or so in buffer in Wichita. Those will continue to get burned down over time. But in the meantime, they also provide a cushion to the production system as rates go up. And honestly, it's quite a useful thing to have that buffer in place. Over the next 2 years, that buffer will get smaller at different times as Boeing's production rate exceeds Spirit's. But for right now, that buffer is in place and it's serving a very useful purpose to cushion the production system.

是的。我們已經考慮了庫存和緩衝量。 420 架飛機是我們將生產並交付給波音公司並獲得付款的。現在我們在威奇托還有大約 90 架飛機的緩衝量。隨著時間的推移，這些飛機將繼續消耗殆盡。但同時，隨著生產率的上升，它們也為生產系統提供了緩衝。說實話，保留緩衝量非常有用。在接下來的兩年裡，隨著波音的生產力超過 Spirit 航空公司，緩衝量會在不同時期逐漸縮小。但就目前而言，緩衝量已經到位，並且正在發揮非常有效的緩衝作用。

And Kristine, I would just add. For clarity and what we're focused on is the 420, it's about 20 units that we didn't deliver in 2022 will carry over. And so we're planning on new production of 400 units. And that's what we expect to put and ship in place and to be paid for. What Boeing delivers to their customers is we have no purview, that's on the Boeing side. We're just trying to communicate to you what contract schedules we have and what we expect to produce internally and what we expect to ship the Boeing and to get paid for.

克里斯汀，我想補充一下。為了清楚起見，我們重點關注的是420架飛機，也就是大約20架我們在2022年未交付的飛機，這些飛機將會結轉。因此，我們計劃新生產400架飛機。我們預計這些飛機將到位並交付，並收取相應費用。波音公司向其客戶交付的飛機，我們沒有權限，這是波音公司的事。我們只是想告訴您，我們有哪些合約時間表，我們預計內部生產哪些飛機，以及我們預計向波音公司交付哪些飛機並獲得相應費用。

And so again, I think you have to separate our production from what Boeing delivers because they have a production line, they have stored units. And we can't really opine on what Boeing is going to deliver to the customers. What we do know is we have contractual commitments to deliver to our customer, and that's what our production rates are...

所以，我再次強調，我認為你必須將我們的生產與波音交付的產品區分開來，因為他們有生產線，有庫存。我們無法真正評判波音將向客戶交付什麼。我們唯一知道的是，我們有合約承諾要交付給客戶，而我們的生產力就是這樣的…

Yes. And just to clarify, the production for the year is going to be 420 units, which includes 20 that carried over from last year. So total units production this year and deliveries to Boeing is 420.

是的。需要澄清的是，今年的產量將為420架，其中包括去年結轉的20架。因此，今年的總產量和交付給波音的飛機數量為420架。

If I could do a follow-up question on margins. So I mean before it was 30 per month, it's breakeven, now with your guide for 420 per year, if we just average that, that's 35 per month for breakeven. I mean when we get out to 42, how should we think about the margin progression? And also for when you get to the mid-40s, I mean it sounded like you guys are walking back to 16.5% segment margin. So can you give us an idea of the magnitude of change and where margins could be when you get to that mid-40s rate and stable there?

我想問一下關於利潤率的後續問題。之前是每月30美元，算是損益平衡。現在按照您給的年利潤420美元的指導價，如果我們平均下來，就是每月35美元就能盈虧平衡。我的意思是，當利潤率達到42美元時，我們該如何考慮利潤率的成長？另外，當利潤率達到45%左右時，聽起來你們的分部利潤率正在回落到16.5%。您能否為我們介紹一下變化幅度，以及當利潤率達到45%左右並穩定下來時，利潤率會達到多少？

Yes. Well, what I would say is as production rates increase, margins will improve. We've certainly seen a lot of headwinds in terms of labor costs, inflation in utilities and freight and logistics and other things in terms of supply chain. And as the production rates increase, the margins will improve. Now at this point, there's been so much change in volatility is we're not making projections in terms of where we'll be at specific times, but they will certainly improve as the production rates increase.

是的。我想說的是，隨著生產力的提高，利潤率也會提高。我們確實在勞動力成本、公用事業通膨、貨運、物流以及供應鏈的其他方面看到了許多阻力。隨著生產力的提高，利潤率也會提高。目前，波動性已經發生了很大變化，我們無法預測特定時間點的波動情況，但隨著生產力的提高，利潤率肯定會提高。

We have our next question comes from Myles Walton from Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Myles Walton。

You have [Louis] adding on for Myles. Just a couple of quick cleanups here. Can you guys size the inventory charge in aftermarket in the fourth quarter? .

你們讓[Louis]接替Myles。這裡只是簡單整理一下。你們能估算一下第四季售後市場的庫存費用嗎？

I'm sorry, could you repeat that?

抱歉，您能再說一次嗎？

Sorry, can you size the inventory charge in the fourth quarter and aftermarket?

抱歉，您能估算一下第四季和售後市場的庫存費用嗎？

Inventory charge.

庫存費用。

Sure. It was small. It was -- we had some excess and obsolete inventory that we had to dispose of in the fourth quarter. It was a couple of million dollars, $2 million, $3 million. If you think about aftermarket, it's $360 million of revenue. We did about $73 million in the fourth quarter. So $2 million or $3 million could have a pretty big impact on the overall profitability. That probably -- excluding that inventory reduction or charge that we took, aftermarket margins would have been in excess of 20%.

當然。規模不大。第四季我們有一些積壓的、過時的庫存需要處理，價值幾百萬美元，大概兩三百萬美元。如果算上售後市場，我們的收入是3.6億美元。第四季我們的收入大約是7300萬美元。所以，兩三百萬美元的損失可能會對整體獲利能力產生相當大的影響。如果不算我們扣除的庫存減少或費用，售後市場的利潤率可能會超過20%。

All right. Great. And then just you mentioned there's going to be a pension charge in the first quarter, any way to guess size that as well? .

好的。太好了。然後你剛剛提到第一季會有一筆退休金支出，你能估算一下這筆支出的金額嗎？

At this point in time, we're finalizing that with our actuaries. We're probably thinking somewhere between $70 million and $100 million, but we're working through the final impacts of that. Again, that is the noncash component of it. And then we'll also have some tax and excise that we'll have to deal with as part of that closure.

目前，我們正在與精算師進行最終確認。我們預計損失可能在7000萬到1億美元之間，但我們正在考慮最終的影響。再次強調，這是非現金部分。此外，作為關閉的一部分，我們還必須處理一些稅收和消費稅。

Okay. Great. And then just last one, I guess with all the talk about the cash impact and the margins going forward, I believe you guys have an IAM agreement that expires in June. How, if at all, are you taking that into account for the guidance for this year? And just how do we think about that going forward, given potential cost increases on that.

好的。太好了。最後，我想說的是，關於現金影響和未來利潤率的討論，我相信你們的IAM協議將於6月到期。你們在今年的業績指引中是如何考慮這一點的？考慮到潛在的成本增加，我們未來如何看待這一點？

Right. Well, our IAM agreement does expire on June 23. And we have taken into account any potential impact in our projections that we've provided today. So -- we naturally have seen several other agreements that the IAM has concluded with Boeing in St. Louis with Lockheed; with Pratt & Whitney; ULA and so forth. So we've taken into account that potential impact in our projections today.

是的。我們的 IAM 協議將於 6 月 23 日到期。我們在今天提供的預測中已經考慮了所有潛在影響。因此，我們自然也看到了 IAM 與聖路易斯的波音公司、洛克希德馬丁公司、普惠公司、ULA 等公司達成的其他幾項協議。因此，我們在今天的預測中已經考慮了這些潛在影響。

We have our next question comes from Michael Ciarmoli from Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Michael Ciarmoli。

So I guess just thinking about the production versus deliveries. It sounds like at 400, the implied rate is 33, but I thought you said there were going to be potentially 2 rate breaks. It doesn't really imply too much of a step function increase in production. I mean, is that how we should look at that? Or are you guys anticipating higher monthly production rates in the second half of the year?

所以我想只是考慮一下產量和交付量。聽起來400的隱含產量是33，但我以為你說可能會有兩次產量突破。這並不意味著產量會有太大的階躍式成長。我的意思是，我們應該這樣看待這個問題嗎？還是你們預計下半年的月產量會更高？

Well, the production rates will go up in the second half of the year. So we'll have a break to 38, and then we'll have a break to 42. And we've taken that into account in the terms of the total number that we're going to produce this year is 420. But that's -- we'll have a production rate break. We'll go to 38 in August and 42 in October. That's the plan. And when you add it out, and I think it's important always to focus not on the rates, but on the total numbers of deliveries. The rate break is what you're cycling at, at any given point, but what really matters, obviously, is the total number of deliveries in a period.

嗯，下半年產量會上升。所以我們會先突破到38輛，再突破到42輛。我們已經把這個數字考慮進去了，今年的總產量是420輛。不過，我們的產量會有一個突破。 8月產量會達38輛，10月達42輛。這是計劃。總而言之，我認為重要的是，關注的不是產量，而是交付總量。產量突破指的是任何特定點位的周期變化，但真正重要的顯然是一段時期內的交付總量。

Michael, I would just add that the second-rate break happens very late in the year. And so there is some investment in capital -- Working capital that we'll have, but that rate break has very little impact on deliveries. The benefit of deliveries will really mostly take effect in 2024.

邁克爾，我想補充一點，二等艙的降價發生在年底。因此，我們會有一些資本投資——營運資金，但降價對交付量的影響很小。交付量帶來的收益其實主要要到2024年才能真正體現出來。

Got it. That makes sense. And then just another one. I mean, do you guys have any opportunities to renegotiate these contracts? I mean we keep hearing most of the suppliers out there passing through cost, getting price increases. I mean, you guys seem to be structurally stuck here as a price taker. I mean you mentioned the 787 pricing at that line unit 1405. I mean, is there anything on the 37 with new blocks? Or are you just here for the long haul at these prices or with these contracts?

明白了。這很有道理。還有一個問題。我的意思是，你們有機會重新談判這些合約嗎？我的意思是，我們一直聽到大多數供應商轉嫁成本，導致價格上漲。我的意思是，你們似乎在結構上陷入了價格接受者的困境。我的意思是，你提到了787在1405號生產線上的定價。我的意思是，37號機有什麼新零件嗎？或者你們只是打算以這些價格或合約長期合作？

Well, we're always in discussions with our customers about the current market environment and the pressures that we're facing. The 737 contract, the pricing on that is set all the way out to 2033. And it's indexed to rate as we've said in the past. But on all the programs, we're always in constant discussions with all of our customers in terms of the current market conditions.

嗯，我們一直在與客戶討論當前的市場環境以及我們面臨的壓力。 737合約的定價一直到2033年。正如我們過去所說，它是與利率掛鉤的。但對於所有項目，我們始終在與所有客戶就當前的市場狀況進行持續討論。

We have our next question, comes from Noah Poponak from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Noah Poponak。

Just going to stay on that MAX discussion. Just want to confirm, what you're saying is there are rate breaks going on in the system on the MAX to that 38 and that 42, but one, because you're doing them late in the year; and then two, you kind of get your system there, you break there before you're actually sustainably delivering there that those don't really generate a significant amount of units for you this year? Is that correct?

繼續討論MAX的問題。我想確認一下，您說的是，從MAX到38和42的航線，系統裡確實存在費率中斷，但首先，因為你們是在年底才這麼做的；其次，你們的系統已經達到了這個水平，但在真正實現可持續交付之前就中斷了，所以這些航線今年實際上並沒有給你們帶來大量的產量，對嗎？

In particular, the 42 a month it happens way late in the year, that is correct.

特別是，每月 42 次，這種情況發生在年底，這是正確的。

Okay. But should we then think about 2024, shipments as running off of that underlying 42 rate?

好的。但是，我們是否應該考慮 2024 年的出貨量是否以 42% 的基準利率運作呢？

Yes. we'll end the year at 42, and we'd expect to continue at that rate throughout 2024.

是的。今年年底我們將達到 42 家，我們預計到 2024 年全年都將保持這一速度。

Okay. And I mean, I know there's always a little bit of a interesting or difficult. I don't know the right word, but a dynamic of, you don't want to get ahead of Boeing, but you physically produce ahead of Boeing and Boeing wants to be conservative and cautious and everybody still trying to figure out the health of the supply chain. But I guess I'll just ask it anyway. I mean, how do I foot what you're saying there on MAX rate breaks and when they occur compared to the latest from Boeing is sort of there's still a scenario that they're at 31 a month through this entire year. And if supply chain is a little better, maybe they can break into the high 30s sometime in the back half of the year?

好的。我的意思是，我知道這總是有點有趣或困難。我不知道該用什麼詞來形容，但有一種動態，你不想領先於波音，但你的實際生產卻領先於波音，而波音希望保持保守和謹慎，而每個人都仍在試圖弄清楚供應鏈的健康狀況。但我想我還是會問這個問題。我的意思是，我如何理解你所謂的MAX費率突破？當它們發生時，與波音最新的情況相比，他們仍然有可能在今年全年每月都保持在31美元。如果供應鏈情況好一點，也許他們可以在下半年的某個時候突破30美元的高點？

Right. Well, what we've given you is the production schedule that we have from our customer. What they determine is their production rate and how they communicate -- you'll have to talk to them. But what we wanted to do here is give you what we have -- I mean these schedules have to be put in place for us long in advance. And that's a schedule that we have right now is to produce 420 units and to have 2 rate breaks in the back half of the year. So we just wanted to give you clarity and transparency into what our production schedule is.

對。我們給您的是客戶給我們的生產計畫。他們決定的是他們的生產力以及溝通方式——您必須與他們溝通。但我們想做的是把我們現有的資訊告訴您——我的意思是，這些計劃必須提前很久就為我們準備好。我們目前的計劃是生產420台，並在下半年進行兩次降價。所以我們只是想讓您清楚透明地了解我們的生產計劃。

No, I would also think of it this way. Boeing has said by in '25, they're going to go to 52 aircraft per month. So that's -- we're getting close to 18 months away from that time frame. So at some point in time, in order to hit 52 aircraft per month, there's going to have to be rate breaks. All of that can happen in 2024. So again, I think, again, what Boeing is saying they're delivering to their customers, that's what they do.

不，我也會這麼想。波音公司曾表示，到2025年，他們的月產量將達到52架。也就是說，我們距離這個目標還有將近18個月的時間。所以，在某個時候，為了達到每月產量52架的目標，必須降低價格。所有這些都可能在2024年實現。所以，我再次強調，波音公司承諾交付給客戶的產品，而他們確實做到了。

We're focused on what do we have to do to meet our contractual commitments to deliver to Boeing and what they pull from us is their decision at this point in time. But again, Tom talked about 2 rate breaks. One of them will help us get to the 420 deliveries this year, the other one will bring people in and working capital, but the real benefit from a delivery standpoint really doesn't take place until 2024.

我們專注於如何履行與波音的合約承諾，而他們目前從我們這裡得到什麼，是他們自己的決定。不過，湯姆又提到了兩個費率優惠。其中一項將幫助我們今年完成420架飛機的交付，另一項將帶來人員和營運資金，但從交付的角度來看，真正的好處要到2024年才能顯現。

Okay. And maybe just one more on the topic. Is supply chain actually better? Are the bottlenecks coming to you, coming to Boeing saying, "Hey, we're now ready to go?" Or is it you and Boeing and those that aren't bottlenecks are saying, let's just start gunning for it and that will help pull the bottlenecks along?

好的。關於這個話題，我再問一個問題。供應鏈真的變得更好了嗎？瓶頸會來找你，找波音說：「嘿，我們現在可以開始了？」還是你、波音以及那些不是瓶頸的部門會說，讓我們開始努力，這樣就能解決瓶頸問題？

Yes. No, the supply chain is better. The way I would measure it is just shortages, part shortages. And our shortages are still elevated, as I said, 2 or 3x higher than what they would be at steady state, but they're less than half of what they were at some point in 2022. So we've definitely seen improvement in the supply chain.

是的。不，供應鏈確實更好了。我衡量它的方式就是看短缺，看零件短缺。正如我所說，我們的短缺仍然很高，比穩定狀態下的短缺高出2到3倍，但比2022年某個時候的短缺程度還不到一半。所以我們確實看到了供應鏈的改善。

Now that said, there's always about a dozen suppliers that are in deep distress that we're having to work with. And often, by the way, we're working closely with Boeing on those suppliers.

話雖如此，我們總是需要與十幾家陷入困境的供應商合作。順便說一句，我們經常與波音公司就這些供應商展開密切合作。

We actually have right now about 70 people out in the field, Spirit People as well as contractors, working with individual suppliers on the rate deliveries. And in addition to that, we are working on bringing some work in. We have our fab unit, which can help cover, and we also move work to other suppliers that have capacity to level load the system. But the shortages are still higher than they should be, but they're less than half of what they were. And so that's why I can say there's been some improvement in the supply chain.

實際上，目前我們大約有70人在現場，包括Spirit People和承包商，他們正在與各個供應商合作，以確保快速交付。除此之外，我們還在努力引進一些工作。我們有自己的晶圓廠，可以彌補產能不足，也將工作轉移到其他有能力平衡系統負載的供應商。雖然缺口仍然高於正常水平，但已經不到之前的一半了。因此，我可以說供應鏈已經有所改善。

We have our next question from Peter Arment from Baird.

下一個問題來自貝爾德公司的彼得·阿門特 (Peter Arment)。

Tom, just quickly, just on the rate breaks going to 38 and then eventually 42, historically, we've always kind of understood that kind of they've done a little more methodically kind of at least 6-month increments. It seems like August and October pretty close. Just maybe if you want to highlight how you're thinking about that or whether I'm wrong in my assumption on those rate break increments.

湯姆，我想簡單說一下，關於利率下調幅度，先是達到38%，然後最終達到42%，從歷史上看，我們一直都認為，他們的升息方式更有條理，至少每6個月遞增一次。 8月和10月的情況似乎比較接近。或許您可以強調一下您對此的看法，或者我對利率下調幅度的假設是否錯誤。

No, you're right. it's closer than we -- Yes. Thanks, Peter. It is closer than we would normally do. But that's why we've made the investment now in getting up to the 42 head count so that we can practice cycling there essentially all year, that will help us do the 38 break in August and then to go to 42 in October. So it's a little closer, but because we have the 42 heads now which is well in advance of when we would normally have them, we were confident that we could do that, and we discussed it in a lot of detail with Boeing, and we both agreed that, that was the right plan.

不，你說得對。比我們——是的。謝謝，彼得。比我們通常的計劃更接近了。但正因如此，我們現在才投入資金，將人數增加到42人，這樣我們基本上可以全年在那裡進行訓練，這將幫助我們在8月份完成38人的休息，然後在10月份達到42人。所以，現在距離目標更近了一點，但由於我們現在有42名員工，這比通常的人數提前了很多，我們有信心能夠做到這一點。我們與波音公司進行了非常詳細的討論，雙方都認為這是正確的計畫。

We have no further questions on the line. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

我們沒有其他問題了。女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。現在您可以掛斷電話了。