Spirit AeroSystems Holdings Inc (SPR) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Spirit AeroSystems Holdings Inc. Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Harry, and I'll be your coordinator today.

女士們，先生們，早上好，歡迎參加 Spirit AeroSystems Holdings Inc. 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議。我的名字是哈利，今天我將擔任你的協調員。

(Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the presentation over to Aaron Hunt, Director of Investor Relations. Please proceed.

（操作員說明）我現在想將演示文稿交給投資者關係總監 Aaron Hunt。請繼續。

Thank you, Harry, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Spirit's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. I'm Aaron Hunt, Director of Investor Relations. And with me today are Spirit's President and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Gentile; Spirit's Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Mark Suchinski; and Spirit's Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer and President of Commercial division, Sam Marnick.

謝謝你，哈利，大家早上好。歡迎來到 Spirit 的 2022 年第三季度財報電話會議。我是投資者關係總監 Aaron Hunt。今天和我在一起的還有 Spirit 的總裁兼首席執行官 Tom Gentile； Spirit 的高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Mark Suchinski； Spirit 的執行副總裁、首席運營官兼商業部門總裁 Sam Marnick。

After opening comments by Tom and Mark regarding our performance and outlook, we will take your questions.

在湯姆和馬克對我們的表現和前景發表評論後，我們將回答您的問題。

Before we begin, I need to remind you that any projections or goals we may include in our discussion today are likely to involve risks, including those detailed in our earnings release, in our SEC filings and the forward-looking statement at the end of this web presentation and referenced in our call today.

在我們開始之前，我需要提醒您，我們今天討論中可能包含的任何預測或目標都可能涉及風險，包括我們的收益發布、我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件和本文末尾的前瞻性聲明中詳述的風險網絡演示，並在我們今天的電話會議中引用。

In addition, we refer you to our earnings release and presentation for disclosures and reconciliation of non-GAAP measures we use when discussing our results. And as a reminder, you can follow today's broadcast and slide presentation on our website at spiritaero.com. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to our Chief Executive Officer, Tom Gentile.

此外，我們向您推薦我們的收益發布和演示文稿，以披露和協調我們在討論我們的結果時使用的非公認會計原則措施。提醒一下，您可以在我們的網站 spiritaero.com 上關註今天的廣播和幻燈片演示。有了這個，我想把電話轉給我們的首席執行官 Tom Gentile。

Thank you, Aaron, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Spirit's third quarter earnings call. Global air traffic demand continues to make good momentum toward pre-pandemic levels, but the lingering impacts of the pandemic are complicating the recovery and creating a challenging economic environment.

謝謝你，Aaron，大家早上好。歡迎來到 Spirit 的第三季度財報電話會議。全球空中交通需求繼續向大流行前水平保持良好勢頭，但大流行的揮之不去的影響使復蘇複雜化，並創造了充滿挑戰的經濟環境。

The supply side of the aerospace recovery remains in a fragile state. While we saw positive earnings from all 3 of Spirit's segments for the first time this year, our day-to-day operations continue to face challenges for multiple factors, including volatility in near-term production rate, schedules, supply chain challenges, availability of skilled labor and persistent inflation.

航空航天復甦的供給側仍處於脆弱狀態。雖然我們今年首次看到 Spirit 的所有 3 個部門都取得了正收益，但我們的日常運營繼續面臨多種因素的挑戰，包括近期生產率的波動、時間表、供應鏈挑戰、可用性熟練的勞動力和持續的通貨膨脹。

For example, while the headline production rates do not change, we have seen delivery schedule changes since last quarter for some programs, including the 767, the A220 and the A320, pushing units out of 2022 and putting pressure on free cash flow.

例如，雖然總體生產率沒有變化，但我們看到自上個季度以來某些項目的交付時間表發生了變化，包括 767、A220 和 A320，將單位推出 2022 年並對自由現金流造成壓力。

Frequent schedule changes create challenges for us and our supply chain. While many of our suppliers are performing to expectations, we continue to see disruption in the supply chain, which is causing part shortages in our factories. Several issues are driving the supply chain disruption, including skilled labor shortages, attrition, part shortages and inflation.

頻繁的日程變更給我們和我們的供應鏈帶來了挑戰。儘管我們的許多供應商的表現都達到了預期，但我們繼續看到供應鏈中斷，這導致我們工廠的零件短缺。有幾個問題正在推動供應鏈中斷，包括熟練勞動力短缺、人員流失、零件短缺和通貨膨脹。

Labor has also been a challenge. Earlier in the year, we addressed our labor needs by recalling workers. Many of these workers were less experienced and have had a longer learning curve to meet the same levels of productivity as the workers that retired during the pandemic.

勞動力也是一個挑戰。今年早些時候，我們通過召回工人來滿足我們的勞動力需求。這些工人中的許多人經驗不足，並且有更長的學習曲線才能達到與大流行期間退休的工人相同的生產力水平。

As we have gone to the open market to fill new openings, we have seen a higher level of attrition than in the past. To mitigate this attrition and attractive skilled labor needed, we have brought on additional contractors, have been holding job fairs. We have lengthened our training program and have increased hourly starting wages.

當我們去公開市場填補新的空缺時，我們看到了比過去更高的流失率。為了減輕這種流失和所需的有吸引力的熟練勞動力，我們引入了更多的承包商，一直在舉辦招聘會。我們延長了培訓計劃並提高了每小時的起薪。

In addition, we have even been offering a signing bonus for hourly workers of $3,000 in Wichita. These issues, schedule changes, part shortages, labor shortages and attrition and inflation, have disrupted our production system in Q3, resulting in lower-than-expected deliveries, which in turn had a negative impact on our cash flow.

此外，我們甚至為威奇託的小時工提供了 3,000 美元的簽約獎金。這些問題、日程變更、零件短缺、勞動力短缺以及人員流失和通貨膨脹，擾亂了我們第三季度的生產系統，導致交付量低於預期，進而對我們的現金流產生了負面影響。

We have put in place plans to address these challenges, and we continue to target 300 deliveries for the 737 during the full year 2022 with our team. There's obviously risk to achieving this target, but our team is making a tremendous effort to achieve this delivery schedule so that we start 2023 in a stronger position.

我們已經制定了應對這些挑戰的計劃，我們將繼續與我們的團隊一起在 2022 年全年交付 300 架 737。實現這一目標顯然存在風險，但我們的團隊正在努力實現這一交付計劃，以便我們在 2023 年開始時處於更有利的位置。

Right now, we are producing the 737 at a rate of 31 aircraft per month. We expect to be at this rate for much, if not most, of 2023. Given the ongoing schedule, supply chain and labor challenges that we have been encountering, we have launched a cost optimization effort that should enable Spirit to be profitable and cash flow positive when the 737 is at 31 aircraft per month, which is where we are now and may remain for some time.

目前，我們正在以每月 31 架飛機的速度生產 737。我們預計在 2023 年的大部分時間（即使不是大部分時間）都保持這個速度。鑑於我們一直遇到的持續的時間表、供應鍊和勞動力挑戰，我們已經啟動了一項成本優化工作，應該使 Spirit 能夠盈利和現金流當 737 每月有 31 架飛機時，這是積極的，這就是我們現在所處的位置，並且可能會持續一段時間。

This cost optimization effort will focus on reducing structural cost at Spirit in 3 major areas: operations, supply chain and infrastructure overhead. While our Commercial operations are taking more time to recover from the MAX grounding and the pandemic, our efforts to diversify into Defense & Space and Aftermarket are gaining more traction.

這項成本優化工作將專注於降低 Spirit 在三個主要領域的結構成本：運營、供應鍊和基礎設施開銷。雖然我們的商業運營需要更多時間從 MAX 停飛和大流行中恢復過來，但我們在國防與航天和售後市場多元化的努力正在獲得更大的牽引力。

Our Defense & Space segment grew this quarter its revenue by 17% with 11.4% margins. We have been able to win more classified defense projects that are important to the new National Defense Strategy by repurposing some of our excess wide-body capacity to defense application.

我們的國防與航天部門本季度的收入增長了 17%，利潤率為 11.4%。通過將部分過剩的寬體能力重新用於國防應用，我們已經能夠贏得更多對新國防戰略具有重要意義的機密國防項目。

So far, we have transitioned approximately 1.2 million square feet in Wichita to Defense business. These classified programs are early in their development, but will contribute to revenue and profit when they get into full rate production.

到目前為止，我們已經將威奇託的大約 120 萬平方英尺的面積轉變為國防業務。這些分類程序處於開發的早期階段，但當它們進入全速生產時將有助於收入和利潤。

In September, we were awarded a contract to provide the new horizontal stabilizers for the KC-135 tanker. We continue to target $1 billion in Defense & Space revenue by 2025.

9 月，我們獲得了為 KC-135 加油機提供新型水平穩定器的合同。我們的目標是到 2025 年國防和航天收入達到 10 億美元。

The Aftermarket business also saw solid growth in Q3. The segment grew 38% over Q3 2021 with 24% margins.

售後市場業務在第三季度也實現了穩健增長。該細分市場比 2021 年第三季度增長 38%，利潤率為 24%。

We recently signed an MOU with Malaysia Airlines Berhad to establish repair services for nacelles and flight control surfaces. We continue to target $500 million of revenue for our Aftermarket business, with margins in excess of 20% by 2025.

我們最近與馬來西亞航空公司簽署了一份諒解備忘錄，為機艙和飛行控制面建立維修服務。我們繼續將售後市場業務的收入目標定為 5 億美元，到 2025 年利潤率將超過 20%。

I'll now turn the call over to Mark to take you through a few more details on our third quarter results. Mark?

我現在將把電話轉給馬克，讓您了解我們第三季度業績的更多細節。標記？

Thank you, Tom, and good morning, everyone. We continue to experience significant pressures this quarter due to lingering impacts of the pandemic, including a very challenged supply chain, labor shortages, some production schedule volatility and ongoing inflation.

謝謝你，湯姆，大家早上好。由於大流行的揮之不去的影響，包括非常具有挑戰性的供應鏈、勞動力短缺、一些生產計劃的波動和持續的通貨膨脹，本季度我們繼續承受著巨大的壓力。

These challenges are not unique to Spirit, and I'm certain you have heard it from the other earnings calls over the last couple of weeks. We believe these challenges will continue through 2023, and we are taking additional actions like implementing a cost optimization program. We are slowly starting to see an improvement in our financial metrics.

這些挑戰並不是 Spirit 所獨有的，我敢肯定你已經從過去幾週的其他財報電話會議中聽到了。我們相信這些挑戰將持續到 2023 年，我們正在採取其他行動，例如實施成本優化計劃。我們正在慢慢開始看到我們的財務指標有所改善。

Revenues were up 30% year-over-year. Gross margins were the highest we've reported since the pandemic began. And most significantly, this is the first time we've reported positive Commercial segment margins since 2019, while operational cash flow has continued to improve due to higher 737 production rates.

收入同比增長 30%。自大流行開始以來，毛利率是我們報告的最高水平。最重要的是，這是我們自 2019 年以來首次報告商業部門的正利潤率，而由於 737 的生產率提高，運營現金流繼續改善。

Now let me take you through the details of our third quarter financial results. First, let's start with revenue on Slide 2. Revenue for the quarter was $1.3 billion, up 30% from the same quarter last year.

現在讓我帶您了解我們第三季度財務業績的詳細信息。首先，讓我們從幻燈片 2 的收入開始。該季度的收入為 13 億美元，比去年同期增長 30%。

This improvement was primarily due to higher production on the 737 program and increased Aftermarket revenue, partially offset by lower production revenue on the 747 program.

這一改善主要是由於 737 計劃的產量增加和售後市場收入增加，部分被 747 計劃的生產收入減少所抵消。

Turning to deliveries. The narrow-body programs in the third quarter of 2022 were 40% higher compared to 2021, with 226 in the third quarter of 2022. We delivered 22 more 737 units and 40 more A320 units compared to the third quarter last year. Wide-body program deliveries were up 11% compared to the third quarter of 2021.

轉向交付。與 2021 年相比，2022 年第三季度的窄體計劃增加了 40%，2022 年第三季度為 226 架。與去年第三季度相比，我們交付了 22 架 737 單位和 40 架 A320 單位。與 2021 年第三季度相比，寬體計劃交付量增長了 11%。

Overall, deliveries increased to 316 units compared to 248 in the same period of last year. Now let's turn to earnings per share on Slide 3. We reported earnings per share of negative $1.22 compared to negative $1.09 per share in the third quarter of 2021. Adjusted EPS was negative $0.15 compared to negative $1.13 in the same period last year.

總體而言，交付量從去年同期的 248 輛增加到 316 輛。現在讓我們轉向幻燈片 3 的每股收益。我們報告的每股收益為負 1.22 美元，而 2021 年第三季度為負 1.09 美元。調整後的每股收益為負 0.15 美元，而去年同期為負 1.13 美元。

This quarter's adjusted EPS excludes the deferred tax valuation allowance as well as costs related to the termination of the Pension Value Plan A, while the third quarter 2021 adjusted EPS excludes the deferred tax asset valuation allowance and a pension curtailment gain.

本季度調整後的每股收益不包括遞延稅項估值津貼以及與終止養老金價值計劃 A 相關的成本，而 2021 年第三季度調整後的每股收益不包括遞延稅項資產估值津貼和養老金削減收益。

We continue to experience disruptions in our factories as a result of part shortages and labor challenges, while continuing to see further inflationary pressures in logistics, energy and other indirect areas.

由於零件短缺和勞動力挑戰，我們的工廠繼續遭受中斷，同時物流、能源和其他間接領域繼續面臨進一步的通脹壓力。

Operating margins were slightly positive compared to negative 16% in the third quarter of 2021. The margin increase reflects higher production rates, specifically on the 737 program, as well as lower forward losses and excess capacity costs during the current period.

與 2021 年第三季度的 16% 的負數相比，營業利潤率略微為正。利潤率的增長反映了更高的生產率，特別是在 737 計劃上，以及當前期間的遠期虧損和產能過剩成本降低。

The quarter's forward losses were $49 million and unfavorable cumulative catch-up adjustments were $5 million. This is compared to $70 million of forward losses and $3 million of unfavorable cumulative catch-up adjustments in the third quarter of 2021.

本季度的遠期虧損為 4900 萬美元，不利的累積追補調整為 500 萬美元。相比之下，2021 年第三季度的遠期虧損為 7000 萬美元，不利的累積追補調整為 300 萬美元。

The current quarter forward losses were primarily driven by the A350, 787 and RB3070 programs. The A350 charges were a result of additional costs related to labor, freight, rework and the impact of part shortages, while the 787 losses were driven by increased supply chain and other costs associated with the ramp up of production, and the RB3070 program forward losses were driven by increased engineering cost estimates.

當前季度的遠期虧損主要是由 A350、787 和 RB3070 計劃造成的。 A350 收費是由於與人工、運費、返工和零件短缺的影響相關的額外成本，而 787 的損失是由於供應鏈增加和與產量增加相關的其他成本，以及 RB3070 計劃的遠期損失受到工程成本估算增加的推動。

The third quarter 2022 earnings also included $31 million of excess capacity costs, a decrease of $21 million over the same period of 2021. Other expense for the third quarter of 2022 was $42 million compared to other income of $95 million in the same period last year.

2022 年第三季度的收益還包括 3100 萬美元的過剩產能成本，比 2021 年同期減少 2100 萬美元。2022 年第三季度的其他費用為 4200 萬美元，而去年同期的其他收入為 9500 萬美元.

The variance was primarily due to pension plan termination activities that were undertaken separately in each of the third quarters, which drove special accounting impacts in each period.

差異主要是由於養老金計劃終止活動在第三季度的每個季度都單獨進行，這對每個期間產生了特殊的會計影響。

The third quarter of 2021 included a [curtailment] payment gain of $61 million, resulting from the closure of the defined benefit plans acquired as part of the Bombardier acquisition.

2021 年第三季度包括 6100 萬美元的 [縮減] 付款收益，這是由於關閉了作為收購龐巴迪的一部分而獲得的固定福利計劃。

In our current period, we terminated the frozen U.S. pension plan value A. This termination satisfies pension obligations to participants while also eliminating the risk of future market volatility and reducing future compliance and fiduciary obligations.

在我們當前期間，我們終止了凍結的美國養老金計劃價值 A。此終止履行了對參與者的養老金義務，同時也消除了未來市場波動的風險並減少了未來的合規和信託義務。

In relation to this termination, we recognized noncash charges of $73 million in the third quarter of this year, primarily driven by an enhanced benefit the company is providing to certain U.S. employees in conjunction with the planned termination. We also anticipate additional noncash charges over the next few quarters as the plan is finalized.

關於此次終止，我們在今年第三季度確認了 7300 萬美元的非現金費用，這主要是由於公司在計劃終止時為某些美國員工提供的福利增加。隨著計劃的最終確定，我們還預計未來幾個季度會產生額外的非現金費用。

Once this is completed, we expect after-tax cash reversion in 2023 in the range of $120 million to $150 million. Going forward, we anticipate the absence of this plan to reduce noncash pension income by about $30 million annually.

一旦完成，我們預計 2023 年的稅後現金返還在 1.2 億美元至 1.5 億美元之間。展望未來，我們預計該計劃的缺失將使非現金養老金收入每年減少約 3000 萬美元。

Now turning to free cash flow on Slide 4. Cash used in operations for the quarter was $36 million, which includes the quarterly cash repayment of $31 million towards the Boeing 737 Advance, received in 2019.

現在轉向幻燈片 4 上的自由現金流。本季度運營中使用的現金為 3600 萬美元，其中包括 2019 年收到的用於波音 737 預付款的季度現金償還 3100 萬美元。

Free cash flow usage for the quarter was $73 million, which was higher compared to the same period of 2021, driven mainly by large cash items in the third quarter of 2021, which included a $228 million tax refund and $38 million received from the Aviation Manufacturing Jobs Protection Program.

本季度的自由現金流使用量為 7300 萬美元，高於 2021 年同期，主要受 2021 年第三季度大額現金項目的推動，其中包括 2.28 億美元的退稅和從航空製造公司收到的 3800 萬美元工作保護計劃。

2022 free cash flow has been and will be negatively impacted by customer deliveries that have been pushed into 2023, particularly on the A320 and A220 programs, additional headwinds from the forward losses recognized on the A350, 787 and RB3070 in the third quarter as well as ongoing supply chain disruptions, labor shortages and inflationary pressures.

2022 年的自由現金流已經並將受到推遲到 2023 年的客戶交付的負面影響，特別是在 A320 和 A220 計劃上，以及第三季度 A350、787 和 RB3070 確認的遠期虧損的額外逆風以及持續的供應鏈中斷、勞動力短缺和通脹壓力。

As a result, we expect the fourth quarter free cash flow to be between breakeven and negative $75 million. This estimate along with the $450 million cash usage through the third quarter resulted in a full-year free cash flow usage of negative $450 million to $525 million.

因此，我們預計第四季度的自由現金流將在盈虧平衡和負 7500 萬美元之間。這一估計加上第三季度的 4.5 億美元現金使用量導致全年自由現金流使用量為負 4.5 億美元至 5.25 億美元。

Obviously, this is an increase from our previous target, with the majority of the increase due to pushout of deliveries into 2023.

顯然，這比我們之前的目標有所增加，其中大部分增長是由於將交付推遲到 2023 年。

With that, let's now turn to our cash and debt balances on Slide 5. We ended the quarter with $671 million of cash and $3.8 billion of debt. Considering the lower production rates we are seeing and the current plan to stay at rate 31 on the 737 program for longer than our previous plan, we expect that it will take us longer to reduce our debt than originally anticipated.

有了這個，現在讓我們轉向幻燈片 5 上的現金和債務餘額。本季度末我們有 6.71 億美元的現金和 38 億美元的債務。考慮到我們看到的較低的生產率以及當前計劃在 737 計劃中保持 31 的速度比我們之前的計劃更長，我們預計減少債務所需的時間將比最初預期的要長。

We now plan to explore refinancing options to provide additional cushion, given the uncertain economic environment. As I mentioned earlier, we also expect to receive the surplus cash from the pension termination in 2023, and we anticipate this amount to be approximately $120 million to $150 million.

鑑於不確定的經濟環境，我們現在計劃探索再融資方案以提供額外的緩衝。正如我之前提到的，我們還預計將在 2023 年從養老金終止中獲得盈餘現金，我們預計這一數額約為 1.2 億美元至 1.5 億美元。

Next, let's discuss our segment performance on Slides 6 through 8. This quarter, we saw significant year-over-year improvements across all 3 segments, as well as sequential improvements across each segment over the second quarter of 2022.

接下來，讓我們討論一下我們在幻燈片 6 到 8 上的細分錶現。本季度，我們看到所有 3 個細分市場的同比均有顯著改善，以及 2022 年第二季度每個細分市場的連續改善。

Now let's get into more detail on Commercial segment on Slide 6. In the third quarter of 2022, Commercial revenues increased 32% compared to 2021, primarily due to higher production volumes on the 737, 777 and A320 programs, partially offset by lower production on the 747.

現在讓我們在幻燈片 6 上更詳細地了解商業部分。在 2022 年第三季度，商業收入與 2021 年相比增長了 32%，這主要是由於 737、777 和 A320 計劃的產量增加，部分被747。

Operating margin for the quarter increased to positive 4% compared to negative 9% in the same period of 2021. The improvement was due to higher volumes on the 737 and lower changes in estimates and lower excess capacity costs.

與 2021 年同期的負 9% 相比，本季度的營業利潤率從 2021 年同期的負 9% 增加到正 4%。這種改善是由於 737 的銷量增加、估計變化較小以及過剩產能成本降低。

Changes in estimates during the current quarter included forward losses of $47 million and unfavorable cumulative catch-up adjustments of $7 million.

本季度的估計變化包括 4700 萬美元的遠期損失和 700 萬美元的不利累積追補調整。

In comparison, during the same period of 2021, the segment recorded $62 million of forward losses and $3 million of unfavorable cumulative catch-up adjustments. The segment had excess capacity cost of $30 million compared to $55 million in the same period last year.

相比之下，在 2021 年同期，該部門錄得 6200 萬美元的遠期虧損和 300 萬美元的不利累積追補調整。該部門的產能過剩成本為 3000 萬美元，而去年同期為 5500 萬美元。

Now let's turn to Defense & Space on Slide 7. Defense & Space revenue improved by 17% compared to the third quarter of 2021 due to increased CH-53K production and higher development program activity. Operating margin in the quarter increased to just under 12% compared to 6% in the same period of 2021.

現在讓我們轉向幻燈片 7 上的國防與航天。由於 CH-53K 產量增加和開發計劃活動增加，國防與航天收入與 2021 年第三季度相比增長了 17%。本季度的營業利潤率從 2021 年同期的 6% 增加到略低於 12%。

The improvement was due to higher classified program profit and lower forward losses compared to 2021, partially offset by higher costs in the current period on the Sikorsky CH-53K program.

這一改善是由於與 2021 年相比，分類項目利潤更高，遠期虧損更低，但部分被本期西科斯基 CH-53K 項目的成本增加所抵消。

The segment recorded forward losses, favorable cumulative catch-up adjustments and excess costs each of $2 million compared to forward losses of $9 million, favorable cumulative catch-up adjustments of $1 million and excess capacity cost of $2 million in the third quarter of 2021.

該部門在 2021 年第三季度錄得遠期虧損、有利的累積追補調整和超額成本各 200 萬美元，而遠期虧損為 900 萬美元、有利的累積追補調整為 100 萬美元和產能過剩成本為 200 萬美元。

For our Aftermarket segment results, let's turn to Slide 8. Aftermarket revenues were up 38% compared to the same period of 2021, primarily due to higher spare part sales as well as higher maintenance, repair and overall activity.

對於我們的售後市場部門結果，讓我們轉到幻燈片 8。售後市場收入與 2021 年同期相比增長了 38%，這主要是由於備件銷售增加以及維護、維修和整體活動增加。

Operating margin for the quarter increased to 24% compared to 14% in 2021 due to higher margins on spare part sales and MRO activity compared to the same period in the prior year. Our Aftermarket team continues to win new business, and we are pleased to see the continued growth in this segment.

由於備件銷售和 MRO 活動的利潤率高於去年同期，本季度的營業利潤率從 2021 年的 14% 增加到 24%。我們的售後市場團隊繼續贏得新業務，我們很高興看到這一領域的持續增長。

In closing, we remain focused on execution and delivering on our commitments to our customers as we manage through the pressures from the strained supply chain, a tight labor market, increased costs and the associated impacts of those pressures to our customer production schedules.

最後，我們將繼續專注於執行和兌現我們對客戶的承諾，因為我們要克服來自供應鏈緊張、勞動力市場緊張、成本增加以及這些壓力對客戶生產計劃的相關影響的壓力。

Although the pace isn't as fast as what we would like to see, we are on the right trajectory to financial recovery. Revenues, margins, and operational cash flow have continued to improve over the last 2 years, and we expect that recovery to continue going forward. As Tom mentioned, we now expect the 737 program to remain at a rate of 31 per month for most of 2023.

儘管步伐沒有我們希望看到的那麼快，但我們正走在金融復甦的正確軌道上。收入、利潤率和運營現金流在過去 2 年中持續改善，我們預計復甦將繼續向前發展。正如湯姆所說，我們現在預計 737 計劃在 2023 年的大部分時間裡將保持每月 31 架的速度。

And as a result, we are initiating a focused effort to enhance our profitability and cash flow in 2023. This program will have a dedicated team focusing on reducing structural costs in the areas of operations, supply chain and overhead.

因此，我們將開始集中精力在 2023 年提高我們的盈利能力和現金流。該計劃將有一個專門的團隊專注於降低運營、供應鍊和管理費用領域的結構成本。

As we look to 2023, we continue to expect free cash flow to be positive. And we plan on sharing more details at our next earnings call in February. Now let me turn it back over to Tom for some closing comments.

展望 2023 年，我們繼續預計自由現金流為正。我們計劃在 2 月份的下一次財報電話會議上分享更多細節。現在讓我把它轉回給湯姆，以徵求一些結束意見。

Thanks, Mark. It was a challenging quarter, but we were pleased to see some positive results, which will provide a foundation for a strong future outlook.

謝謝，馬克。這是一個充滿挑戰的季度，但我們很高興看到一些積極的結果，這將為強勁的未來前景奠定基礎。

First, overall revenue was up 30% year-over-year, mostly on 737 deliveries, which were 69 this quarter versus 47 a year ago. Defense revenue was up 17% year-over-year with 11% operating margins. Aftermarket revenue was up 38% with 24% operating margins.

首先，總體收入同比增長 30%，主要來自 737 次交付，本季度為 69 次，而一年前為 47 次。國防收入同比增長 17%，營業利潤率為 11%。售後市場收入增長 38%，營業利潤率為 24%。

This quarter, we had the first positive operating income in 3 years at $5 million, and it was the highest segment operating margin in 3 years at 6.5%.

本季度，我們實現了 3 年來的首次正營業收入，達到 500 萬美元，這是 3 年來最高的部門營業利潤率，達到 6.5%。

These positive results are encouraging, especially since the adverse impact of the pandemic is lingering far longer than we all expected. The main challenges we have seen are similar to what other companies are experiencing. Unstable schedules from customers in a very dynamic environment, even when headline production rates do not change.

這些積極的結果令人鼓舞，特別是因為大流行的不利影響持續的時間比我們所有人預期的要長得多。我們看到的主要挑戰與其他公司正在經歷的類似。在非常動態的環境中，客戶的日程安排不穩定，即使總體生產率沒有變化。

Supply chain disruption resulting in part shortages for our factories, labor shortages and elevated levels of attrition and high levels of inflation, we expect some of these challenges to continue into 2023.

供應鏈中斷導致我們的工廠出現零件短缺、勞動力短缺、人員流失率升高和通貨膨脹率高，我們預計其中一些挑戰將持續到 2023 年。

We are, therefore, taking several actions to position Spirit to be profitable and cash flow positive, even if production rates on the 737 remain longer than we expect at 31 aircraft per month.

因此，即使 737 的生產率仍然高於我們預期的每月 31 架飛機，我們也將採取多項措施使 Spirit 實現盈利和現金流為正。

These 3 major actions to reinforce our performance in 2023 are the following: first, launching a cost optimization effort to remove structural cost in infrastructure, supply chain and operations that will ensure that Spirit is profitable and cash flow positive at 31 aircraft per month, if that rate ends up being where we say for an extended period of time.

加強我們在 2023 年業績的這 3 項主要行動如下：首先，啟動成本優化工作，以消除基礎設施、供應鍊和運營中的結構性成本，這將確保 Spirit 在每月 31 架飛機上實現盈利和現金流為正，如果這個比率最終是我們所說的很長一段時間。

Second, exploring refinancing options to provide additional cushion, given the uncertain economic environment. We are not planning to issue equity.

其次，考慮到不確定的經濟環境，探索再融資方案以提供額外的緩衝。我們不打算發行股票。

And third, completing the process of our U.S. pension plan termination, which will revert between $120 million and $150 million of cash in 2023. With that, we'll be happy to take your questions.

第三，完成我們的美國養老金計劃終止程序，這將在 2023 年收回 1.2 億至 1.5 億美元的現金。有了這個，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question will be from the line of Greg Konrad from Jefferies.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Greg Konrad。

Maybe just starting on the puts and takes for Q4 free cash flow. At the lower end of the usage, it kind of matches Q3 with -- based on the 300, a pretty big step-up in 737 MAX deliveries. How do you think about the puts and takes? And how are you thinking about these items into 2023?

也許只是從第四季度自由現金流的看跌期權開始。在使用量的低端，它與 Q3 相匹配——基於 300，737 MAX 交付量的一個相當大的提升。你如何看待看跌期權？您如何看待這些項目到 2023 年？

Right. Well, the key, of course, for cash flow, both in Q4 and in 2023, is going to be deliveries of all programs, but particularly the 737 MAX. And so as I mentioned in my remarks, our target is still 300, which means we have about 100 more to go in Q4. And the team is focused on that. That will obviously drive better cash flow.

正確的。嗯，當然，對於第四季度和 2023 年的現金流來說，關鍵是所有項目的交付，尤其是 737 MAX。因此，正如我在講話中提到的，我們的目標仍然是 300，這意味著我們在第四季度還有大約 100 人要做。團隊專注於此。這顯然會推動更好的現金流。

And looking at next year, as I said, we're planning to stay at 31 aircraft per month and executing on that, stabilizing our factories, stabilizing the supply chain, getting working capital under control. And so that will be a key driver for next year on free cash flow.

正如我所說，展望明年，我們計劃保持每月 31 架飛機的數量並繼續執行，穩定我們的工廠，穩定供應鏈，控制營運資金。因此，這將成為明年自由現金流的關鍵驅動力。

Our next question is from the line of Seth Seifman of JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Seth Seifman。

I guess when you talk about next year and being free cash flow positive next year, would that be free cash flow positive before the, let's call it, $135 million from the pension coming back?

我想當你談論明年和明年的自由現金流為正時，在我們稱之為退休金的 1.35 億美元回歸之前，自由現金流是否為正？

And then also when we talk about exploring refinancing options, is that right now about the next year's maturity? Or is it something more comprehensive?

然後當我們談論探索再融資選擇時，現在是關於明年的到期嗎？或者是更全面的東西？

Right. Well, the answer on the first question is yes, that we expect to be free cash flow positive, even without the $120 million to $150 million reversion from the pension termination. And then secondly, in terms of -- your second question, again, Seth, was what?

正確的。嗯，第一個問題的答案是肯定的，即使沒有從退休金終止中恢復 1.2 億至 1.5 億美元，我們也預計自由現金流為正。其次，就你的第二個問題而言，Seth，是什麼？

Just about the refinancing...

只是關於再融資...

Yes. So Seth, we're just exploring all options. I would say that we're looking at it holistically. And so at this point in time, we're not really kind of narrowing in to any one specific maturity. We're just looking at the backdrop of our current -- the macroeconomic environment.

是的。所以賽斯，我們只是在探索所有的選擇。我會說我們正在整體上看待它。所以在這個時間點上，我們並沒有真正縮小到任何一個特定的成熟度。我們只是在看我們當前的背景——宏觀經濟環境。

We're looking at the fact that 737 production rates are going to be longer -- lower for longer. And so we're evaluating the -- our entire situation. We're evaluating the capital market environment, and we'll be making some decisions shortly.

我們正在考慮這樣一個事實，即 737 的生產率將會更長——更低的時間更長。所以我們正在評估我們的整個情況。我們正在評估資本市場環境，我們將很快做出一些決定。

And our next question is from the line of Robert Spingarn of Melius Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Robert Spingarn。

Tom, if I can, I've got two for you, one short term and one long term. What is it about Q3 that all of a sudden, we're seeing significant movement in the rate assumptions? It sounds like you all were -- you've changed since Q2 on this 31, and I imagine that's because of what Boeing said.

湯姆，如果可以的話，我有兩個給你，一個短期的，一個長期的。第三季度突然之間，我們看到利率假設發生了顯著變化，這是怎麼回事？聽起來你們所有人都 - 自第 31 季度以來，你們已經改變了，我想這是因為波音公司所說的。

And so why all of a sudden change in the plan, not just there, but on the 320 and the 220? What happened between July and now in the supply chain?

那麼為什麼計劃突然改變，不僅僅是在那裡，而是在 320 和 220 上？七月到現在供應鏈發生了什麼？

And then the longer-term question is, the second question, you haven't had much time to think about this. But now that Boeing has given us numbers for '25 and '26 for their own financials and on rate, so 50 for the MAX, 10 on the [787], you already have an Airbus plan for them. Can you come back to us with a plan for Spirit in those years?

然後是更長期的問題，第二個問題，你沒有太多時間考慮這個問題。但是，既然波音公司已經為他們自己的財務和費率提供了 '25 和 '26 的數字，因此 MAX 為 50，[787] 為 10，您已經為他們制定了空中客車計劃。你能帶著那些年的精神計劃回到我們身邊嗎？

Okay, Robert. Well, let me do the first question first. On the short term, in terms of the rate assumptions, let's just start with MAX, we are just, right now, getting some greater clarity from our customer, Boeing, in terms of what their outlook is.

好的，羅伯特。好吧，讓我先做第一個問題。在短期內，就費率假設而言，讓我們從 MAX 開始，我們現在正從我們的客戶波音公司那裡獲得更清晰的前景，了解他們的前景。

They gave a little bit more detail yesterday in their Investor Day. And so we're solidifying our plans. As we look at it, we've always said we want to trail them a little bit so we can burn off some of this inventory that we built up during the MAX grounding in the pandemic. And that hasn't really started yet.

他們昨天在投資者日提供了更多細節。所以我們正在鞏固我們的計劃。當我們看到它時，我們一直說我們想稍微落後一點，這樣我們就可以燒掉我們在大流行期間 MAX 停飛期間積累的一些庫存。而這還沒有真正開始。

So as we look at next year, they said they're going to be at 31 for an extended period of time, so we will as well. And we'll just watch their increases, and we'll trail along accordingly. We still have a buffer. This quarter it was about 75 units -- or actually 72 units, whereas last quarter it was 66 units. So it actually grew a little bit this quarter.

所以當我們展望明年時，他們說他們將在很長一段時間內保持 31 歲，所以我們也會。我們只會觀察它們的增長，並相應地跟踪。我們還有一個緩衝區。本季度大約有 75 個單位——實際上是 72 個單位，而上個季度是 66 個單位。所以這個季度它實際上增長了一點。

So that's the situation on 737 MAX. With regard to the 320 and the 220, it really wasn't necessarily anything to do with the supply chain. It was more just Airbus making some decisions to move units out of the year. So the production rate didn't change, but they just moved units out of the year that we won't deliver. And that was the update really in terms of those programs.

這就是 737 MAX 的情況。至於 320 和 220，其實不一定跟供應鏈有關係。更多的是空中客車公司做出了一些將單位搬出年度的決定。所以生產率沒有改變，但他們只是將我們無法交付的單元移出一年。這就是這些程序的真正更新。

So I mentioned that in my remarks. It was the headline production rates didn't change, but the number of units that we delivered did because they moved them out of the year. So that is the...

所以我在發言中提到了這一點。總體生產率沒有變化，但我們交付的單位數量卻發生了變化，因為他們將它們移出了一年。所以這就是...

It just seems like everything is tied to production rates and they're volatile and they're all over the place. I mean, I heard a lot of different production rates when I was out in Seattle in the past 2 days. And it just seems like there's still quite a bit going on in the supply chain that prevents visibility for all of you.

似乎一切都與生產率有關，而且它們是不穩定的，而且到處都是。我的意思是，過去兩天我在西雅圖外出時，我聽到了很多不同的生產率。看起來供應鏈中仍有相當多的事情發生，阻礙了你們所有人的可見性。

I think that's a fair comment. It's a very dynamic environment, and things are moving around. And one thing Boeing mentioned yesterday is they want to stabilize everything at the current production rates before they make decisions about going up.

我認為這是一個公平的評論。這是一個非常動態的環境，事情正在發生變化。波音公司昨天提到的一件事是，他們希望在決定提高產量之前，將一切都穩定在當前的生產速度上。

And Airbus really wants to ensure that everything is stable as well. And they have very, as you know, aggressive rate increases over the next few years. So we want to make sure that we are meeting the requirements -- yes?

空中客車公司真的想確保一切都穩定。正如你所知，他們在接下來的幾年裡會有非常激進的利率增長。所以我們要確保我們滿足要求——是嗎？

I was just going to say, it just seems like you were all -- you all felt more comfortable with this 3 months ago than you do now.

我只是想說，看起來你們都是——你們都覺得 3 個月前比現在更舒服。

I'd say, the dynamic environment and some of the uncertainty continues to play a part. It was a dynamic quarter for the reasons I mentioned, part shortages, attrition and inflation. So on the longer term, yes, you said that Boeing has outlined some of their targets for rates on 737 MAX, and [25] and [26] for [50] and then 787 to 10.

我想說，動態環境和一些不確定性繼續發揮作用。由於我提到的原因，零件短缺、人員流失和通貨膨脹，這是一個充滿活力的季度。所以從長遠來看，是的，你說波音已經概述了他們的一些目標，即 737 MAX 的費率，[25] 和 [26] 的 [50]，然後是 787 到 10。

And yes, that gives us some more clarity now, and we can take that information and incorporate it into our current forward-looking planning and start to come up with some outlook for those years as well. Obviously, we haven't had time to do it in the 24 hours since we learned about it, but we'll be using that information. Yes.

是的，這讓我們現在更加清晰，我們可以將這些信息納入我們當前的前瞻性計劃，並開始為那些年提出一些展望。顯然，自從我們了解它以來，我們在 24 小時內沒有時間去做，但我們將使用這些信息。是的。

I think the market would appreciate that.

我認為市場會欣賞這一點。

Our next question is from the line of Cai von Rumohr from Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Cai von Rumohr。

Yes. So your target is 100 737s in the fourth quarter. That's way above anything that you've done. What kind of challenge is there to get that? Is your cash flow guide based on getting there? And if you miss, how should we think about per unit, what that means in terms of cash flow shortfall?

是的。所以你的目標是第四季度的 100 737。這遠遠超過你所做的任何事情。有什麼樣的挑戰才能做到這一點？您的現金流指南是否基於到達那裡？如果你錯過了，我們應該如何考慮每單位，這在現金流短缺方面意味著什麼？

Right. It is higher than we've delivered in the recent past, but we've been working up to it with all of the changes and improvements and additions that we've been making over the course of the last year. .

正確的。它比我們最近交付的要高，但我們一直在努力解決我們在過去一年中所做的所有更改、改進和添加。 .

So for example, we have been continuing to hire new staff. We have brought on new contractors. We continue to incorporate the benefits of some of the digitization, automation and lean process flow changes that we've made in the plants. And so all of those things are starting to come into [fore].

例如，我們一直在繼續招聘新員工。我們帶來了新的承包商。我們繼續將我們在工廠中進行的一些數字化、自動化和精益工藝流程更改的好處納入其中。因此，所有這些事情都開始出現 [fore]。

We've also started to see some sort of stabilization in some of the part shortages. There's still some part shortages, but it's stabilizing, and we feel like we can have a good control of it. So that's why we set that target, and we are tracking to it right now.

我們也開始看到一些零件短缺情況有所穩定。仍然有一些零件短缺，但它正在穩定下來，我們覺得我們可以很好地控制它。所以這就是我們設定這個目標的原因，我們現在正在跟踪它。

Now there is a risk that we might miss some of those deliveries. And that was why when Mark said the guidance for Q4, he gave the range of 0 to negative 75 to take into account that if we execute on all of them, we would be at the higher end of that range. And if we miss some, we would be toward the lower end of the range. Mark, anything else to add?

現在存在我們可能會錯過其中一些交付的風險。這就是為什麼當馬克說第四季度的指導時，他給出了 0 到負 75 的範圍，以考慮到如果我們對所有這些都執行，我們將處於該範圍的高端。如果我們錯過了一些，我們將接近範圍的低端。馬克，還有什麼要補充的嗎？

No. I think you said it right. I mean, I would prefer not to give you such a wide range in the fourth quarter. But as Tom said, there continues to be part shortages. We've got a few very critical suppliers that we're depending on to make these deliveries in the fourth quarter. .

不，我認為你說得對。我的意思是，我不想在第四季度給你這麼大的範圍。但正如湯姆所說，零件仍然短缺。我們有一些非常關鍵的供應商，我們依賴它們在第四季度進行這些交付。 .

And if we can't get the parts in and we don't deliver, that means I can't turn around and build a customer and collect the cash.

如果我們不能把零件送進去，我們不交付，那意味著我不能轉身建立客戶並收取現金。

And so we're going to fight through it over the next couple of months. And so that's the range we have. If we end up not being able to make those deliveries this year, they fall into next year. That just means it's a timing situation. The cash ends up. We collect the cash in '23 as opposed to this year.

所以我們將在接下來的幾個月裡努力解決這個問題。這就是我們的範圍。如果我們今年最終無法交付這些產品，它們就會進入明年。這只是意味著這是一個時機問題。現金結束。我們在 23 年收取現金，而不是今年。

But I'd say, over the course of the last couple of quarters, we've been working toward getting to 31 aircraft per month and stabilizing at that level. So we're currently operating the plant at 31 aircraft per month. We remain on the plan that we outlined for Q4.

但我想說，在過去的幾個季度中，我們一直在努力爭取每月達到 31 架飛機並穩定在這個水平上。因此，我們目前以每月 31 架飛機的速度運營該工廠。我們仍然按照我們為第四季度概述的計劃。

There are lots of challenges, but we're confident that the team is now performing and executing at its highest level for the last several quarters.

有很多挑戰，但我們相信該團隊現在在過去幾個季度中的表現和執行水平達到了最高水平。

But I don't understand. So 31 per month basically equals 93, you're talking 100. You're talking more. So are there some that essentially have been built that you would complete because 100, I mean, as I said to begin, is a pretty aggressive number, given where you've been.

但我不明白。所以每月 31 基本上等於 93，你說的是 100。你說的更多。那麼有沒有一些基本上已經建成的你會完成的，因為100，我的意思是，正如我開始所說的那樣，考慮到你去過的地方，這是一個非常激進的數字。

Yes. The actual rate ties a little bit higher than 31 in terms of where we cycle, so that explains for some of it. We have some overtime built into that. And yes, there were about 8 or so, 8 or 10 units that were not delivered in Q2, that's carried over to Q3. And so we finished those up in the very early part of Q4. They didn't finish in Q3.

是的。就我們循環的地方而言，實際利率比 31 略高一點，所以這可以解釋其中的一些原因。我們有一些加班時間。是的，大約有 8 個左右，8 或 10 個單位在第二季度沒有交付，這已經轉移到第三季度。所以我們在第四季度的早期完成了這些。他們沒有在第三季度完成。

So it's all those factors that give us confidence that we can hit the target. Now there's some risk to it, but that's what the plan is, and that's what the team is executing to.

因此，正是所有這些因素讓我們有信心達到目標。現在它存在一些風險，但這就是計劃，這就是團隊正在執行的目標。

For our next question, Doug Harned of Bernstein.

對於我們的下一個問題，伯恩斯坦的 Doug Harned。

On -- you talked about on next year really pushing through a cost reduction effort. But given that we've gone through the pandemic, clearly, you and others, everyone had to reduce a lot of cost there. How do you envision taking cost out from here?

關於 - 你談到了明年真正推動降低成本的努力。但是鑑於我們已經經歷了大流行，顯然，你和其他人，每個人都必須在那裡減少很多成本。您如何設想從這裡降低成本？

And then with that, if we see a rate go up, which we expect we will, it's not clear exactly when, how do you make sure you haven't cut too much, so we don't end up back in the same kind of situation that a lot of suppliers were in before when demand picked up?

然後，如果我們看到利率上升，我們預計會上升，目前尚不清楚確切的時間，你如何確保你沒有削減太多，所以我們不會以同樣的方式結束需求回升之前很多供應商的情況是什麼？

Right. Well, a few things, Doug. First of all, on SG&A, we've got to make sure that we align the cost of all the indirect costs to the production levels that we have, not necessarily higher production levels that we may have anticipated. We want to continue to optimize those costs and make sure we are getting them at the most competitive rates.

正確的。好吧，有幾件事，道格。首先，在 SG&A 上，我們必須確保將所有間接成本的成本與我們擁有的生產水平保持一致，而不一定是我們可能預期的更高生產水平。我們希望繼續優化這些成本，並確保我們以最具競爭力的價格獲得它們。

So for example, a lot of our indirect sourcing and purchased services, we're taking a hard look at those types of costs to make sure that we are controlling them.

因此，例如，我們的許多間接採購和購買服務，我們正在認真研究這些類型的成本，以確保我們能夠控制它們。

The other thing is supply chain. And there, what we're looking at really is level loading the system in the optimal way, is figuring out where are the pockets of capacity and labor that exist and at more competitive cost.

另一個是供應鏈。在那裡，我們真正看到的是以最佳方式對系統進行水平加載，正在找出存在的容量和勞動力口袋在哪裡，並且成本更具競爭力。

And how can we move that around the supply chain, including how can we take some of the things that we have brought in during the pandemic, how can we push that back out to the supply chain and get more cost benefits and looking at a whole range of different options with the supply chain to level load the system and overall create more optimal pricing.

以及我們如何將其轉移到供應鏈中，包括如何將我們在大流行期間帶來的一些東西拿回來，我們如何將其推回供應鏈並獲得更多的成本收益並著眼於整體供應鏈的一系列不同選項，以平衡系統負載並整體創造更優化的定價。

And then the third thing is in operations, is continuing to leverage the investments that we've made over the last couple of years in things like digitization, automation and lean factory flow in capturing those benefits to drive improvements in realization and productivity on the factory floor to get more cost.

然後第三件事是在運營方面，繼續利用我們過去幾年在數字化、自動化和精益工廠流程等方面所做的投資，以獲取這些好處，以推動工廠實現和生產力的提高地板以獲得更多成本。

We'll also look at, for example, our R&D, is how can we get better benefits from the R&D, not so much in terms of necessarily reducing the R&D, but perhaps shifting some of it from things that are further out to R&D efforts that will deliver productivity benefits more in the near term.

例如，我們還將研究我們的研發，我們如何從研發中獲得更好的收益，與其說是必然減少研發，不如說是將其中的一部分從更進一步的事情轉移到研發工作中這將在短期內帶來更多的生產力收益。

So we have what we call Horizon 1, Horizon 2, Horizon 3. We'll be shifting some out of Horizon 3 into Horizon 1.

所以我們有了我們所說的地平線 1、地平線 2、地平線 3。我們將把一些從地平線 3 轉移到地平線 1。

And then the last area is things like capital expenditures is, again, looking at those capital expenditures and saying, well, what's absolutely critical, what can we potentially push out or stop in order to improve the outlook for 2023.

最後一個領域是資本支出之類的事情，再次審視這些資本支出，然後說，什麼是絕對關鍵的，我們可以推出或停止什麼，以改善 2023 年的前景。

So it's that combination of activities that will drive the benefits in overhead, in supply chain and in operations. Mark, anything else to add?

因此，正是這些活動的組合將推動間接費用、供應鍊和運營方面的收益。馬克，還有什麼要補充的嗎？

No, I think you covered it. Doug, we're not really going to be aggressive on the factory-specific assemblers, et cetera. There are many things that we're working on around outsourcing transactional type work. We're looking at combining some administrative functions across some of our sites.

不，我想你涵蓋了它。道格，我們不會真的對工廠特定的組裝機等採取積極的態度。我們正在圍繞外包交易類型的工作做很多事情。我們正在考慮在我們的一些網站上合併一些管理功能。

These are some things that, with production volumes being lower for longer, we could afford some of that in the past. But at this point in time, we can't. And so these are some real structural things that we're going to go do. But be very, very mindful that we don't have a negative impact on our ability to deliver.

這些是一些東西，隨著產量較低的時間更長，我們過去可以負擔得起一些。但在這個時間點，我們不能。所以這些是我們要做的一些真正的結構性事情。但是要非常非常注意，我們不會對我們的交付能力產生負面影響。

There's some of our sites, there are some factories that are overutilized. We have to do some consolidation. So it's those types of things. And we're -- at this point in time, we have to aggressively go at it. It will help us improve our overall margins, and it will improve the cash flow projections that we have.

我們有一些站點，有一些工廠被過度使用。我們必須做一些整合。所以就是這些類型的東西。而且我們 - 在這個時間點上，我們必須積極地去做。它將幫助我們提高整體利潤率，並將改善我們的現金流預測。

So we're taking it serious. We're doing it in a way to make sure that we protect the factory, but there is some costs out there that we need to go get, in fact, due to the fact that production rates aren't recovering as quickly as possible.

所以我們要認真對待。我們這樣做是為了確保我們保護工廠，但實際上我們需要付出一些成本，因為生產率並沒有盡快恢復。

But if I can -- if -- Boeing said yesterday that they looked at this 31 a month rate through the next year. But depending how things go in the supply chain, particularly with engines, at some point, it could go up to 38.

但是，如果我能——如果——波音昨天表示，他們會考慮到明年的每月 31 架飛機的速度。但取決於供應鏈中的情況，特別是發動機，在某些時候，它可能會上升到 38 個。

When you look at that, and you've been going through this for a while, this uncertainty of when that next rate break would be, how much lead time do you need to take rate up if Boeing were to say -- they're not going to do it, but if I Boeing were to say tomorrow, we're going to 38 in Q2 or something like that?

當您看到這一點時，並且您已經經歷了一段時間，不確定下一次降息時間是什麼時候，如果波音要說，您需要多長時間才能提高利率-他們是不會這樣做，但如果我明天波音公司說，我們將在第二季度達到 38 架或類似的情況？

Doug, as we've said before, we usually like to get 6 months of lead time on a rate increase. And we are very mindful that we need to make sure we deliver and meet the rate expectations of our customers. And so we're working closely with them. We're watching it.

道格，正如我們之前所說，我們通常希望通過提價獲得 6 個月的交貨時間。我們非常注意我們需要確保我們交付並滿足客戶的費率預期。所以我們正在與他們密切合作。我們正在關注它。

And we're not going to do anything in terms of our cost optimization project that would hinder us or prevent us from meeting the rate expectations of our partners. But generally speaking, we like to have a 6-month notice, and we're confident that working with Boeing will have at least that if there is a rate increase in 2023.

我們不會在成本優化項目方面做任何會阻礙我們或阻止我們滿足合作夥伴的費率預期的事情。但一般來說，我們希望提前 6 個月通知我們，如果 2023 年加息，我們相信與波音公司合作至少會有這樣的通知。

Yes. I would just add, Doug, that was historically true with the macroeconomic environment, labor shortages, attrition. We have to do this thoughtfully. We don't want to put ourselves in a position where we have a negative impact to the factory.

是的。道格，我只想補充一點，宏觀經濟環境、勞動力短缺和人員流失在歷史上都是如此。我們必須深思熟慮地做到這一點。我們不想讓自己處於對工廠產生負面影響的境地。

So definitely contractual commitments to 6 months. But in light of the current environment, we're trying to work with Boeing on 6 to 8 months lead time, right?

所以絕對是6個月的合同承諾。但鑑於目前的環境，我們正試圖在 6 到 8 個月的交貨時間上與波音公司合作，對嗎？

Let's make sure that we protect the production system, we hire the people, we place the orders and do it in a very thoughtful way, so that we could execute this in a manner that really help support the airlines but also protects our profitability.

讓我們確保我們保護生產系統，我們僱用人員，我們下訂單並以非常周到的方式進行，以便我們能夠以真正有助於支持航空公司但也保護我們的盈利能力的方式執行此操作。

Our next question is from George Shapiro from Shapiro Research.

我們的下一個問題來自夏皮羅研究公司的喬治夏皮羅。

Yes. Mark, I just wanted to go back and get some color as to why cash flow got so much worse and could it happen next year. Because like in the Q4 call that occurred only back in February, the guide was for effectively minus $120 million, including the cash payment to Boeing.

是的。馬克，我只是想回過頭來了解一下為什麼現金流會變得如此糟糕以及明年是否會發生。因為就像在 2 月份才發生的第四季度電話會議中一樣，該指南實際上是負 1.2 億美元，包括向波音公司支付的現金。

And obviously, you gave the numbers this morning. So when you look at that clear deterioration in like 8 months, what were the biggest drivers for it?

顯然，你今天早上給出了數字。因此，當您看到 8 個月內的明顯惡化時，最大的驅動因素是什麼？

George, I think we've tried to convey this, the production schedules, the delivery assumptions, right? We started the year expecting 350 737 deliveries, it's 300. 50 units on the amount of content and revenue and cash that's generated from that program is significant.

喬治，我想我們已經試圖傳達這一點，生產計劃，交貨假設，對吧？我們年初預計交付 350 737 次，實際是 300 次。從該計劃產生的內容、收入和現金數量上的 50 個單位意義重大。

When we look at the deliveries on A320 and where they are, we just talked about Airbus sliding out close to 30 units on us, either within their air supply window of 30 days, the A220 program, the OEMs are being challenged.

當我們查看 A320 的交付情況以及它們的位置時，我們剛剛談到空客在我們的 30 天供氣窗口內滑出近 30 個單位，A220 計劃，原始設備製造商正在受到挑戰。

They're seeing supply chain challenges. They're seeing engine shortages. All of this stuff rolls down to the Tier 1, right? And we're trying to react to it as quickly as we can.

他們看到了供應鏈挑戰。他們看到發動機短缺。所有這些東西都歸結到第 1 層，對吧？我們正試圖盡快對它做出反應。

But George, you've been in this business a long time. This is a long cycle, very complicated manufacturing process, long lead times. And so when we gear up the system to go produce and hire people and bring in inventory to support certain production rates, and those production rates change in short order, it's very difficult for us to pivot as quickly as that can be.

但是喬治，你從事這個行業已經很長時間了。這是一個長周期，非常複雜的製造過程，長的交貨時間。因此，當我們加速系統進行生產和僱用人員並引入庫存以支持某些生產率時，這些生產率會在短期內發生變化，我們很難盡快做出調整。

And so what I would tell you is this, the one lesson learned for me is to be very cautious, right, about those production rates and what people are saying about the increase. And therefore, as we think about 2023, trying to take those lessons learned and the comments that Tom talked about is -- our expectation is we're going to be at 31, right?

所以我要告訴你的是，我學到的一個教訓是要非常謹慎，對，對那些生產率以及人們對增長的看法。因此，當我們考慮到 2023 年時，試圖吸取這些教訓和湯姆談到的評論是——我們的期望是我們將在 31 歲時，對嗎？

We're not expecting and planning financially to do any better than that. And so from a financial planning standpoint, we have to assume that these production rates are going to be close to where we are now, right? We've got to get the factories healthy, and we can't anticipate these things going up until there's clear line of sight to it.

我們不期望和財務計劃做得比這更好。因此，從財務規劃的角度來看，我們必須假設這些生產率將接近我們現在的水平，對吧？我們必須讓工廠保持健康，在有明確的視線之前，我們無法預測這些事情的發展。

And so we've been through several cycles in the last 10 years, production rate climbs. And I've been here over 16 years, and I can tell you the challenges we're seeing with labor and supply chain, right, and the inflation is putting away more pressure on the production system, even when we went from 42 up to 52.

因此，我們在過去 10 年中經歷了幾個週期，生產率攀升。我在這裡已經超過 16 年了，我可以告訴你我們在勞動力和供應鏈方面看到的挑戰，對，通貨膨脹正在減輕生產系統的更多壓力，即使我們從 42 歲上升到52.

It's a challenging environment out there, and it's putting a lot of pressure on our ability to produce. It's putting a lot of pressure on our ability to generate cash. We've got to carry extra inventory buffers because of supply chain.

這是一個充滿挑戰的環境，它給我們的生產能力帶來了很大的壓力。這給我們產生現金的能力帶來了很大壓力。由於供應鏈，我們必須攜帶額外的庫存緩衝。

I would just say, it's not a stable environment. And right now, collectively, Spirit, the OEMs, we have to get the factory stable. We have to start delivering at 31 a month consistently. And when that happens, you'll start to see the earnings and the cash flow generation come through.

我只想說，這不是一個穩定的環境。現在，Spirit 和原始設備製造商，我們必須讓工廠穩定下來。我們必須始終在每月 31 點開始交付。當這種情況發生時，您將開始看到收益和現金流的產生。

Yes. And George, what I would say is the recovery has just been more uncertain than any of us expected. We've seen multiple schedule changes really in all the programs, pushing things out further than we had anticipated. So that's the biggest driver by far.

是的。喬治，我想說的是，復甦比我們任何人預期的都更加不確定。我們已經在所有項目中看到了多個日程安排的變化，這比我們預期的要推進得更遠。所以這是迄今為止最大的驅動力。

Okay. And let me just kind of push this towards '23 for a minute. So at the 31 rate, you're obviously going to deliver like 370 737s next year. It's only 20 more than what you expected to deliver early this year when the cash was going to be negative $120 million. And now you're saying it's going to be positive next year.

好的。讓我把它推向 23 分鐘。因此，按照 31 的速度，明年您顯然會交付 370 737 架。這僅比您今年年初預期的交付量多 20 倍，當時現金將是負 1.2 億美元。現在你說明年會是積極的。

I mean, you get positive just from 20 more 737 deliveries next year versus what your expectation was from early this year?

我的意思是，與今年年初的預期相比，明年還有 20 架 737 交付，您對此感到樂觀？

George, remember, the negative $120 million included the repayment of the Boeing Advances of $130 million.

喬治，請記住，負 1.2 億美元包括償還 1.3 億美元的波音預付款。

Right. Yes. (inaudible)...

正確的。是的。 （聽不清）...

So if you wouldn't have included those, right -- if you would not include that, you exclude it, and that would have said at 350 737s, we would have expect it to be positive.

所以如果你不包括那些，對 - 如果你不包括那個，你排除它，這會在 350 737s 上說，我們會期望它是積極的。

Yes. Breakeven is what you've said. But -- okay, but the A320...

是的。盈虧平衡就是你所說的。但是——好吧，但是 A320……

(inaudible) slightly positive.

（聽不清）略微積極。

Okay. And for '23, the extra 20 deliveries gets you to say you're quite positive ex the $120 million to $150 million pension benefit you're going to get? (inaudible)?

好的。而對於 23 年，額外的 20 次交付讓你說你非常積極，除了你將獲得的 1.2 億至 1.5 億美元的養老金福利嗎？ （聽不清）？

(inaudible) say we're trying to figure out what...

（聽不清）說我們正試圖弄清楚什麼......

We haven't said how cash positive. We said we would be cash flow positive in 2023, excluding the pension cash reversion, and that we would provide more specifics in February when we have a better line of sight to what our production schedules are going to be.

我們還沒有說現金有多積極。我們表示，不包括養老金現金返還，我們將在 2023 年實現現金流為正，並且我們將在 2 月份提供更多細節，屆時我們將更好地了解我們的生產計劃。

And our next question is from the line of Kristine Liwag of Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Kristine Liwag。

So looking at production rates, I mean, Tom, you alluded to that you heard about the new 737 production rate 24 hours ago when they released it to investors. In the past few quarters, it seems like the production rate guide down continued to be a surprise.

所以看看生產率，我的意思是，湯姆，你提到你在 24 小時前聽說過新的 737 生產率，當時他們向投資者發布了它。在過去的幾個季度中，似乎生產率引導下降繼續令人驚訝。

I guess, I would have assumed that you're in close discussion with Boeing, it would be part of their planning process. So is this surprise normal? Or is there something going on that you're not more in line with their planning process?

我想，我會假設您正在與波音公司進行密切討論，這將是他們計劃過程的一部分。那麼這個驚喜正常嗎？還是有什麼事情讓你不符合他們的計劃流程？

No. We obviously talk to Boeing every single day about production schedules. And we have plans that are in place and scenarios. What I was saying is just their public announcement. I mean, obviously, we have the schedules that are in place and the interactions that take place.

不。顯然，我們每天都與波音公司討論生產計劃。我們已經制定了計劃和情景。我所說的只是他們的公開聲明。我的意思是，很明顯，我們有適當的時間表和發生的互動。

But it's been dynamic. As I said, production schedules have changed in the last 14 months or so. We've had several different production schedule changes on the 737 at the highest level but also in terms of the minor model. It's a very dynamic environment. It's changing on a weekly basis. And so that's what I meant by that.

但它是動態的。正如我所說，生產計劃在過去 14 個月左右發生了變化。我們在最高級別的 737 以及次要型號方面對 737 進行了幾次不同的生產計劃更改。這是一個非常動態的環境。它每週都在變化。這就是我的意思。

Not to say that we are just learning now what the outlook is. We obviously have production rate scenarios that we have been working with in a lot of detail.

並不是說我們現在只是在了解前景是什麼。顯然，我們已經在很多細節上處理了生產率場景。

And that's why we're confident that whatever Boeing does, we will be able to adapt to meet it because we are in constant discussion with them, and we have good outlooks, and we're constantly looking at different scenarios.

這就是為什麼我們有信心無論波音做什麼，我們都能夠適應它，因為我們一直在與他們討論，我們有良好的前景，我們一直在研究不同的情況。

I see. That's really helpful color. And if I could clarify one thing you guys mentioned. So for 2023, it seems like your previous outlook where you'd be positive free cash flow, was predicated on higher production rate. So is that -- and I know you guys said that you'll provide more details next quarter.

我懂了。這顏色真的很有幫助。如果我能澄清你們提到的一件事。因此，對於 2023 年，您之前的自由現金流為正的前景似乎是基於更高的生產率。就是這樣 - 我知道你們說你們將在下個季度提供更多細節。

But now would be -- maintaining that positive free cash flow in '23 on lower production rate, does that imply that you expect to get that from these cost initiatives? Or like -- can you give us a few moving pieces on how you get there?

但現在是——在 23 年以較低的生產率保持正的自由現金流，這是否意味著您希望從這些成本計劃中獲得這一點？或者像——你能給我們一些關於你是如何到達那裡的動人的片段嗎？

Right. Well, we always said we would aspire to be cash flow breakeven essentially at 31. And what we're saying now is, since we expect to be at 31 longer, we want to take actions to enhance our profitability, put ourselves in a position to be more cash flow positive and more profitable if we stay at 31 longer.

正確的。好吧，我們總是說我們希望在 31 歲時基本上實現現金流盈虧平衡。而我們現在所說的是，由於我們希望在 31 歲時更長，我們希望採取行動來提高我們的盈利能力，讓自己處於有利位置如果我們保持在 31 歲以上，我們將獲得更多的正現金流和更多的利潤。

And the things that we're going to do are the things that I mentioned earlier in terms of our operations is we'll look to incorporate and get the benefit of some of the investments we've made in digitization, automation and flow.

我們要做的事情就是我之前提到的關於我們的運營的事情，我們將尋求整合併從我們在數字化、自動化和流程方面所做的一些投資中受益。

In terms of overhead, we'll look at consolidating capacity where it's underutilized, share -- aligning costs between sites in a more efficient way, looking harder at indirect costs and purchase services and making sure those are aligned to production.

在管理費用方面，我們將著眼於整合未充分利用的產能，共享——以更有效的方式調整站點之間的成本，更加關注間接成本和購買服務，並確保這些與生產保持一致。

And then in the supply chain, it's really looking at level loading to figure out how we can get the best cost position and go to where the capacity exists in terms of people and infrastructure because there are shortages in different pockets. And we've got to level load the system so that we can optimize that better.

然後在供應鏈中，它真的在關注水平加載，以找出我們如何獲得最佳成本位置，並在人員和基礎設施方面存在產能，因為不同的口袋都存在短缺。我們必須平衡系統負載，以便我們可以更好地優化它。

And those are the things that we would do to be more profitable and more cash flow positive at 31 aircraft per month.

這些就是我們會做的事情，以便在每月 31 架飛機上獲得更多利潤和更多正現金流。

Now we say 31 aircraft per month, we use the MAX as just a proxy for the whole system. But obviously, all of the programs contribute to it. It's just that the MAX is still our biggest program, and so we always use that as a proxy.

現在我們說每月 31 架飛機，我們使用 MAX 作為整個系統的代理。但很明顯，所有的程序都對此做出了貢獻。只是MAX仍然是我們最大的程序，所以我們總是用它作為代理。

Kristine, the only other item I would just add is we're coming off a pretty challenging third quarter. Deliveries aren't -- didn't really hit where we expected due to all the factors that we just talked about. And when you look at cash from ops, it was a consumption of $36 million, $31 million of that was a Boeing Advance repayment.

克里斯汀，我要補充的唯一其他項目是我們即將迎來一個非常具有挑戰性的第三季度。由於我們剛才談到的所有因素，交付沒有 - 並沒有真正達到我們的預期。當您查看來自運營的現金時，這是 3600 萬美元的消耗，其中 3100 萬美元是波音提前還款。

So operationally and working capitalized from a cash from ops standpoint, we were almost breakeven in a very challenging quarter. So I think those demonstrate the trends that we're seeing, the improvements that we're seeing in our cash position and our cost structure, you're seeing significantly lower excess costs.

因此，從運營的角度來看，從現金的運營和營運資本化來看，我們在一個非常具有挑戰性的季度幾乎實現了盈虧平衡。因此，我認為這些表明了我們所看到的趨勢，我們在現金狀況和成本結構方面看到的改善，你看到超額成本顯著降低。

And so if you look at last quarter, the cash from ops, you look at this quarter, and then the guide that we're providing, you are seeing a very, very favorable trend, right, in getting very close to breakeven cash flow from ops, even during the challenging times at this 31 a month.

因此，如果您查看上個季度，來自運營的現金，您查看本季度，然後是我們提供的指南，您會看到非常非常有利的趨勢，對，非常接近盈虧平衡現金流來自運營商，即使在每月 31 次的充滿挑戰的時期。

And as we get stable and we drive into next year, that's what gives us a pretty good feeling that at stable 31 a month, we can drive cash flow positiveness into our operations, take advantage of the cost optimization program.

隨著我們變得穩定並進入明年，這給了我們一種很好的感覺，即在每月穩定 31 個月時，我們可以將現金流積極性引入我們的運營，利用成本優化計劃。

And then who knows maybe late next year, a little higher production rate will be additive to that, but that's kind of how we're thinking about it.

然後誰知道可能在明年年底，更高的生產率會增加，但這就是我們正在考慮的方式。

The next question is from the line of David Strauss of Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊的大衛施特勞斯。

Just a follow-up on this line of questioning. On helping us think about bridging this year to next year on free cash flow, is really $450 million to $500 million a positive change, I guess, less the advance repayments? Is that really almost all MAX [rates] stabilizing at 31 a month? Is there anything else we should know in terms of a bridge?

只是對這一系列問題的跟進。在幫助我們考慮從今年到明年的自由現金流橋接問題上，我想，4.5 億美元到 5 億美元真的是一個積極的變化，減去預付款項？真的幾乎所有的 MAX [費率] 都穩定在每月 31 次嗎？關於橋樑，還有什麼我們應該知道的嗎？

And then as a follow-up question, Mark, in terms of refinancing, is an equity raise on the table? Or are you solely focused on the refinanced -- the fixed income side?

然後作為一個後續問題，在再融資方面，馬克是否會進行股權融資？還是您只專注於再融資——固定收益方面？

Yes. So the second item first. We're not exploring an equity raise. At this stage of the game with where our stock price is, that would not be fair to our investors. There's other opportunities we have from a refinancing standpoint. The capital markets are available to a company like Spirit.

是的。所以先說第二項。我們不是在探索股權融資。在我們股價所處的這個遊戲階段，這對我們的投資者來說是不公平的。從再融資的角度來看，我們還有其他機會。資本市場可供 Spirit 這樣的公司使用。

So at this point in time, we're not looking at an equity raise. When you think about the cash flow, David, and I know what the math you're doing, you're saying, "Hey, $450 million minus the $130 million, you're at $320 million, right? And so is that $320 million improvement between '22 and '23, all 737?" It's more complicated than that, okay?

所以在這個時間點上，我們不考慮股權融資。當你考慮現金流時，大衛，我知道你在做什麼數學，你會說，“嘿，4.5 億美元減去 1.3 億美元，你是 3.2 億美元，對嗎？那也是 320 美元'22 和 '23 之間的百萬改進，全部為 737？”比這更複雜，好嗎？

At the start of this year, we were at 21 aircraft per month right? We broke rate, we had to bring in additional inventory. We've seen a whole lot of disruption, higher costs earlier in the year that had a significant negative impact to cash flow in the first quarter. And a lot of that was, I would just say, costs that were consumed to break rate from 21 to 31 that won't repeat.

今年年初，我們每月有 21 架飛機，對嗎？我們打破了利率，我們不得不引入額外的庫存。今年早些時候，我們已經看到了很多中斷，更高的成本對第一季度的現金流產生了重大的負面影響。我只想說，其中很大一部分是用於將利率從 21 降到 31 所消耗的成本，並且不會重複。

So I think you have a couple of things going on. As you move into 2023, the -- what I would call the cost -- the inefficiency costs that occur when you go up in rate, hiring people ahead of time, learning curve, et cetera, those costs won't repeat if we stay and get stable at 31 for a longer period of time.

所以我認為你有幾件事正在發生。當你進入 2023 年時，我稱之為成本——當你提高速度、提前僱用人員、學習曲線等等時發生的低效率成本，如果我們留下來，這些成本將不會重複並在較長時間內穩定在 31 歲。

The second component is, just theoretically, we go up 70, 75 units on 737, very helpful from a revenue, earnings and cash flow standpoint. I will also tell you that we're expecting higher deliveries on the A320 program. Another very good program for us, a solid program.

第二個組成部分是，從理論上講，我們在 737 上上漲了 70、75 個單位，從收入、收益和現金流的角度來看非常有幫助。我還將告訴您，我們預計 A320 計劃的交付量會更高。對我們來說另一個非常好的程序，一個可靠的程序。

And so we're seeing an uptick in several of our other programs, higher revenue on Defense, higher revenue on Aftermarket. All those things are contributors to the cash flow. And if we can get things stable from a factory standpoint, then we have an opportunity to start to burn down some inventory, not bring in the inventory that is needed during this challenging time.

所以我們看到我們的其他幾個項目都有所增加，國防收入增加，售後市場收入增加。所有這些都是現金流的貢獻者。如果我們能從工廠的角度讓事情穩定下來，那麼我們就有機會開始消耗一些庫存，而不是在這個充滿挑戰的時期引入所需的庫存。

So I think the combination of all those factors, right, lead us to believe that ex the Boeing repayments, that we can take that negative [$320 million] that was -- that occurred here in 2022 and turned that around to being positive.

所以我認為所有這些因素的結合，對，讓我們相信，除了波音公司的還款，我們可以承擔 2022 年發生的負數 [3.2 億美元]，並將其轉為正數。

And again, we'll come back and talk more specifically about how much -- how more positive can it be. Give us a little time to dial in our production rates for next year, let us take a couple of more months to work through the disruption of our factories to try to get things a little bit more stable, and we'll have a better line of sight on that in a few months.

再一次，我們會回來更具體地討論多少——它可以有多積極。給我們一點時間來調整明年的生產率，讓我們再花幾個月的時間來解決我們工廠的中斷問題，試圖讓事情變得更穩定一些，我們會有更好的生產線幾個月後就可以看到了。

Okay. And how does the forward loss burn off on the [350, 787] A320 factor into all of this? I mean, you burned a lot of cash on those this year, just looking at the burn down of the forward loss balance. Has that been a negative to next year, given higher rates there? Or is that a neutral?

好的。以及 [350, 787] A320 因素的遠期損失如何在所有這些中消失？我的意思是，你今年在這些上燒了很多錢，看看遠期虧損餘額的燒毀情況。鑑於那裡的利率較高，這對明年是否不利？還是那是中立的？

Well, what I would tell you is our cash forecasting, we're well aware of the fact that we have multiple programs that are forward loss. We know specifically, based on our forward cost projections, exactly how much cash they will consume in '23, '24 and '25, give or take.

好吧，我要告訴你的是我們的現金預測，我們很清楚我們有多個遠期虧損計劃。根據我們的遠期成本預測，我們具體知道他們在 23 年、24 年和 25 年將消耗多少現金，給予或接受。

Some of the recent forward losses is going to put a little bit of pressure on that. But based on our current situation with the forward losses that we've taken through the third quarter and our projected cost versus price in 2023, that is factored into our assumptions that we can get to cash flow positive.

最近的一些遠期損失將對此施加一點壓力。但根據我們目前的情況以及我們在第三季度所承受的遠期虧損以及我們在 2023 年預計的成本與價格之間的關係，我們假設我們可以實現正現金流。

Our next question is from the line of Myles Walton of Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Myles Walton。

There was a comment that Boeing made yesterday on 2 quality slips at their fuselage supplier in October that was preventing deliveries at pace and is requiring rework.

波音公司昨天發表評論稱，10 月份他們的機身供應商出現了 2 次質量問題，導致無法按時交付並需要返工。

I'm just curious if that is something that happens at Spirit? And is it recovered? And is there a financial impact that was observed in the third or will be observed in the fourth quarter?

我只是好奇這是否是在 Spirit 發生的事情？並且恢復了嗎？第三季度或將在第四季度觀察到財務影響嗎？

Yes. It's -- with the fuselage and all of our parts that go to Boeing across those different programs, there are occasionally some escapes either from things that we do or from our suppliers. I think the one that Stan was referring to was a supplier escape to us that ended up getting to Boeing.

是的。它是——機身和我們所有的零件都通過這些不同的項目進入波音公司，偶爾會有一些從我們所做的事情或從我們的供應商那裡逃脫的事情。我認為 Stan 所指的是一個供應商逃跑到我們身邊，最終來到了波音公司。

And if you think about it, there's 80,000 parts on a fuselage and 450,000 fasteners, it can happen. It's not routine, but we do see escapes. And we work with Boeing to get those fixed.

如果你想一想，機身上有 80,000 個零件和 450,000 個緊固件，它可能會發生。這不是例行公事，但我們確實看到了逃脫。我們與波音公司合作解決這些問題。

So it's nothing systemic. I think it was isolated to one of our suppliers, who had an escape in their factory, which unfortunately flowed through to Boeing, and we're working with them to resolve it.

所以這不是系統性的。我認為這是與我們的一位供應商隔離的，他們在他們的工廠中逃脫了，不幸的是流向了波音公司，我們正在與他們合作解決這個問題。

And so was the impact observed in the third quarter deliveries? Or will it be observed in the fourth quarter deliveries? And to Cai's point, all comments (inaudible)?

在第三季度的交付中觀察到的影響也是如此嗎？還是會在第四季度的交付中觀察到？至於蔡的觀點，所有評論（聽不清）？

Yes. I mean I think there are -- I don't know specifically in their line, but it's something that we don't expect is going to persist all the way through the fourth quarter.

是的。我的意思是我認為有 - 我不知道他們的具體情況，但我們預計這不會一直持續到第四季度。

So it would get resolved, as these things normally do, in a period measured in days and weeks, not months. I will call this a routine escape that we will resolve with Boeing.

所以它會像這些事情通常那樣在幾天和幾周而不是幾個月的時間內得到解決。我將稱之為例行逃生，我們將與波音公司一起解決。

Our next question comes from Michael Ciarmoli of Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Michael Ciarmoli。

Just curious, again, staying on the free cash flow, as we think about 31 a month into next year, where do you think the excess capacity costs track to, especially contemplating the cost reduction plan?

再次好奇，保持自由現金流，因為我們考慮到明年每月 31 個月，你認為過剩產能成本會追踪到哪裡，特別是考慮成本削減計劃？

And then just I guess you made some comments on '25 for Aftermarket and Defense relative to the Investor Day. Should we still be thinking the Commercial targets are still good? Or does anything change with Boeing being at 50 and 10 for the 787?

然後我猜你對 25 年的售後市場和國防相對於投資者日發表了一些評論。我們是否還應該認為商業目標仍然很好？或者波音 787 的價格分別為 50 和 10 有什麼變化嗎？

Right. Well, in terms of the excess cost, I'll leave that one for Mark. Let me just talk about the '25 outlook. Again, we work anticipating that the 737 rates would go up, we were anticipating the 787 rates would go up. I think Boeing has been more clear publicly now about those. And so we will incorporate those into our thinking and start to think about how that impacts '25 and '26.

正確的。好吧，就超額成本而言，我會把那個留給馬克。讓我談談'25展望。同樣，我們預計 737 的價格會上漲，我們預計 787 的價格會上漲。我認為波音現在對這些公開更加清楚。因此，我們會將這些納入我們的思考，並開始思考這將如何影響 25 年和 26 年。

But it's consistent with what the scenarios were that we have been working with. So no surprises on that. Mark, on the 31 excess costs, I'll let you answer that, (inaudible) [accounting issue].

但這與我們一直在使用的場景是一致的。所以這並不奇怪。馬克，關於 31 項超額成本，我會讓你回答，（聽不清）[會計問題]。

Yes. And we've talked about this before, just to give you a little history. In 2020, we incurred $280 million of excess costs. In 2021, it's $218 million of costs. Through the first 3 quarters, we're at $126 million, and we incurred around $31 million in the third quarter. .

是的。我們之前已經討論過這個，只是為了給你一點歷史。 2020 年，我們產生了 2.8 億美元的超額成本。到 2021 年，成本為 2.18 億美元。在前三個季度，我們的收入為 1.26 億美元，第三季度的收入約為 3100 萬美元。 .

Based on the 31 a month production rate as well as a couple of other programs that are -- have excess costs, we expect the excess cost again to significantly improve year-over-year.

基於每月 31 次的生產速度以及其他一些具有超額成本的計劃，我們預計超額成本將再次同比顯著改善。

And we expect that to -- it should end up being slightly inside of $100 million. So another nice benefit from an earnings and from a cash flow standpoint.

我們預計它最終應該會在 1 億美元以內。因此，從收益和現金流的角度來看，這是另一個不錯的好處。

Yes. And I would say that the positive about the MAX going up to 50 in the '25 time frame, and Airbus has already said they want the A320 family to be in the 75 range, that will be very positive for Spirit. 85% of our backlog is narrow-body aircraft. And as we get back to those rates, as we get back up to 52 -- towards 52 on the MAX, for example, the excess costs will go away.

是的。我想說的是，MAX 在 25 年的時間框架內上升到 50 是積極的，空中客車公司已經表示他們希望 A320 系列在 75 範圍內，這對 Spirit 來說是非常積極的。我們積壓的 85% 是窄體飛機。當我們回到這些費率時，當我們回到 52 - 例如，在 MAX 上接近 52，超額成本將消失。

And we'll be absorbing a lot better in terms of our fixed cost, and that will drive overall benefits for Spirit. So that's, I think, one positive aspect of the recovery, is that domestic travel is recovering first. That favors narrow-body production. 85% of our backlog is narrow-body.

而且我們將在固定成本方面更好地吸收，這將為 Spirit 帶來整體收益。所以，我認為，復甦的一個積極方面是國內旅行首先復甦。這有利於窄體生產。我們 85% 的積壓工作是窄體的。

And as those production rates increase on narrow-bodies and we can absorb more of our fixed cost and drive productivity and efficiency in our factories, that will be very positive for our productivity, our profitability and our cash flow.

隨著窄體機的生產率提高，我們可以吸收更多的固定成本並提高工廠的生產力和效率，這將對我們的生產力、盈利能力和現金流非常有利。

Our next question comes from Ronald Epstein of Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ronald Epstein。

Yes. Anyway, a couple of questions, quick ones. How cash accretive is your Defense business today when we think about how supportive that can be to your cash flow outlook? And how do you guys feel about the -- was it 7% to 9% cash flow guide that you -- target that you gave before?

是的。無論如何，幾個問題，快速的。當我們考慮到這對您的現金流前景有多大支持時，您今天的國防業務的現金增值有多大？你們對你們之前給出的 7% 到 9% 的現金流指導有何看法？

Right. Well, in terms of Defense, as we've said, we expect that it should be at $1 billion by 2025 at, we call it, normal Defense margins of 12% to 14%. And there's some -- obviously some overhead on that, but it still would yield a very good cash profile.

正確的。好吧，就國防而言，正如我們所說，我們預計到 2025 年它應該達到 10 億美元，我們稱之為正常的國防利潤率 12% 到 14%。還有一些 - 顯然有一些開銷，但它仍然會產生非常好的現金狀況。

So the Defense business is a good solid business for us. It's growing nicely. We've won a lot of new programs. And as those get into full rate production, that will drive those economics.

因此，國防業務對我們來說是一項很好的穩固業務。它長得很好。我們贏得了很多新項目。隨著這些產品進入全速生產，這將推動這些經濟效益。

And obviously, with the global geopolitical environment right now, Defense looks like a very good place for us to be growing and diversifying.

顯然，在目前的全球地緣政治環境下，國防看起來是一個非常適合我們發展和多元化的地方。

With regard to the 7% to 9%, that's been a historic target. We've talked about it. I mean, obviously, in the last 24 months, the environment has changed a lot in terms of inflation, interest rates going up and a lot of other challenges in the supply chain.

關於 7% 到 9%，這是一個歷史性的目標。我們已經談過了。我的意思是，很明顯，在過去的 24 個月裡，環境在通貨膨脹、利率上升和供應鏈中的許多其他挑戰方面發生了很大變化。

So we will take a look at that and absorb it and incorporate some of that thinking before we set targets.

因此，我們將在設定目標之前對其進行研究並吸收並整合一些想法。

But things have changed. I mean, our aspiration is obviously as production rates increase to improve our profitability and our margins and our cash flow conversion, but we also have to take into account that it's a much different macroeconomic environment than even it was 12 months ago. Mark, anything else to add?

但事情發生了變化。我的意思是，我們的願望顯然是提高生產率以提高我們的盈利能力、利潤率和現金流轉換，但我們也必須考慮到與 12 個月前相比，宏觀經濟環境已經大不相同。馬克，還有什麼要補充的嗎？

No, I think you're right. Ron, we've got to get stable. We got to get stable at 31 a month. First step first, start generating positive cash flow. Once we get a better line of sight into '24 and '25, where those production rates are and where the macroeconomic environment is, I think we'll be able to better discuss that.

不，我認為你是對的。羅恩，我們必須穩定下來。我們必須在每月 31 歲時穩定下來。第一步，開始產生正現金流。一旦我們更好地了解 24 年和 25 年，這些生產率在哪里以及宏觀經濟環境在哪裡，我認為我們將能夠更好地討論這個問題。

At this point in time, I don't have a crystal ball that's good enough to let me know where production rates are going to be and what the macroeconomic environment will look like during that time. But that's what we were able to demonstrate in the past, right?

在這個時間點上，我沒有足夠好的水晶球讓我知道生產率將在哪里以及在那段時間宏觀經濟環境會是什麼樣子。但這就是我們過去能夠證明的，對吧？

And so we're fundamentally the same company, stronger Defense business, stronger Aftermarket business. And so we're very focused on execution, getting stable and then getting back to the type of margins and cash flow that you guys saw back in 2018 and 2019.

所以我們基本上是同一家公司，更強大的國防業務，更強大的售後業務。因此，我們非常專注於執行，保持穩定，然後回到你們在 2018 年和 2019 年看到的利潤率和現金流。

Got it. Got it. And then if I may, maybe just one more broad question. And this is maybe an observation, might be wrong, from what Boeing told the world yesterday. It seems like they're going to be more protective of their balance sheet.

知道了。知道了。然後，如果可以的話，也許只是一個更廣泛的問題。這可能是波音昨天告訴世界的一個觀察結果，可能是錯誤的。他們似乎會更加保護自己的資產負債表。

And if that's the case, that kind of implies they're going to be less protective of other balance sheets and maybe in their supply chain. I mean, how does that complicate your life, if at all?

如果是這樣的話，這意味著他們將減少對其他資產負債表的保護，也許在他們的供應鏈中。我的意思是，如果有的話，這會使你的生活變得多麼複雜？

I would just say -- my response to that is we need to be prepared for lower -- for staying -- for us taking a longer time frame to get back to the higher production rates, that's what I'm interpreting.

我只想說 - 我對此的回應是，我們需要為更低的 - 留下 - 我們需要更長的時間來恢復更高的生產率，這就是我正在解釋的。

Right. And that's exactly why we're launching this cost optimization program, is to take control of what we control and not worry about the things that we can't control or are beyond what we can control.

正確的。這正是我們推出這個成本優化計劃的原因，是為了控制我們可以控制的東西，而不用擔心我們無法控製或超出我們可以控制的東西。

So if we're going to be at 31 longer, then we will make sure we can enhance our ability to be profitable and cash flow positive at 31.

因此，如果我們要長到 31 歲，那麼我們將確保我們能夠提高在 31 歲時盈利和現金流為正的能力。

Our next question is from the line of Noah Poponak of Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的諾亞波波納克。

How do you -- can you talk about how you expect your MAX units that -- I believe you said is now at 72. How do you expect that to progress from here? And where do you expect it to end next year?

你如何 - 你能談談你對你的 MAX 單位的期望 - 我相信你說現在是 72 歲。你如何期望從這裡取得進展？你預計它明年會在哪裡結束？

Right. Well, as we've said, over time, as the recovery continues, at some point, we will trail Boeing 5 units or so a month in order to burn off the excess units.

正確的。好吧，正如我們所說，隨著時間的推移，隨著復甦的繼續，在某個時候，我們將落後波音 5 台左右，以消耗掉多餘的機組。

Now some of the units are still in, I would say, holding pattern. So there's some China units, for example. And so we expect that, that will burn off. As Boeing goes up in rate, we will lag them. And that gives us a little bit more time stabilize our factory. So that's all a positive.

我想說，現在一些單位仍然處於持有模式。例如，有一些中國單位。所以我們預計，它會燃燒殆盡。隨著波音的價格上漲，我們將落後於它們。這給了我們更多的時間來穩定我們的工廠。所以這都是積極的。

The other thing is that we've said this before is the buffer has actually turned out to be a very good and helpful thing for both Boeing and Spirit because it allows us to have a cushion in the production system to prevent any sort of last-minute issues impacting loads at the Renton factory.

另一件事是，我們之前已經說過，緩衝實際上對波音和 Spirit 都是非常好的和有幫助的，因為它允許我們在生產系統中有緩衝，以防止任何形式的最後——影響 Renton 工廠負載的微小問題。

And so we've jointly agreed with Boeing is that we will keep a buffer in place. And we expect that to be about 20 units or so. And that will be a permanent buffer that will help cushion the production system. And we didn't have that in place back in the 2018, 2019 time period, and it could sometimes create disruption.

因此，我們與波音公司共同同意，我們將保持適當的緩衝。我們預計這將是大約 20 個單位左右。這將是一個永久的緩衝，有助於緩衝生產系統。而且我們在 2018 年和 2019 年的時間段內還沒有這樣做，它有時可能會造成乾擾。

So we know there are some challenges in the production system ongoing, some things have happened right before delivery on occasion. And so that permanent buffer will help cushion the production system.

所以我們知道在生產系統中存在一些挑戰，有些事情有時在交付之前就發生了。因此，永久緩衝將有助於緩衝生產系統。

So we're at 72 now. We will keep a permanent buffer of 20, which means that we'd want to burn off about 50. And then there are some that I said that are kind of in a holding pattern. And so that's the situation on the buffer right now.

所以我們現在已經 72 歲了。我們將保留 20 的永久緩衝，這意味著我們想要燒掉大約 50。然後我說有些是處於持有模式的。這就是緩衝區現在的情況。

Yes. I would just say this, Noah, it's probably for your modeling purposes because you're kind of talking specifically about 2023. We're at 31 a month. I don't anticipate us going below 31 a month. That's not in the cards.

是的。我只想這麼說，諾亞，這可能是為了你的建模目的，因為你是在專門談論 2023 年。我們一個月是 31 歲。我預計我們每月不會低於 31 歲。那不在卡片上。

And based on Boeing's conversation yesterday about they want to get stable at 31 a month, those two conversations just would lead you to believe that we're not going to burn a lot off next year, which means our production is 31 and their production is 31 for the most of the year, which would mean that there probably wouldn't be a significant reduction in the burn off of the buffer units next year, which would mean our buffer would probably continue beyond that into 2024 at some point in time.

根據波音昨天關於他們希望每月穩定在 31 架的談話，這兩次談話只會讓你相信我們明年不會燒掉很多，這意味著我們的產量是 31 架，而他們的產量是31 年的大部分時間，這意味著明年緩衝單元的燒毀可能不會顯著減少，這意味著我們的緩衝可能會在某個時間點持續到 2024 年。

So I think, based on what we told you about staying at 31 for most of next year and what Boeing said yesterday, I just think from a modeling standpoint, that's -- those are 2 data points to take into consideration.

所以我認為，根據我們告訴你的關於明年大部分時間保持在 31 歲以及波音公司昨天所說的話，我只是從建模的角度來看，那就是 - 這是需要考慮的 2 個數據點。

So basically, whenever they break to 38, you'll then have, call it, 4 to 6 months of staying at 31 to get the [70] to the 20?

所以基本上，每當他們突破到 38 歲時，你就會有，稱之為，4 到 6 個月的時間停留在 31 歲，以使 [70] 到 20 歲？

We do not necessarily burn it all off at once. So we may lag them a couple of months when they go to 38 and then maybe a couple of months when they go to 42, with the plan of burning the buffer off gradually.

我們不一定要一次將其全部燒掉。因此，當他們達到 38 歲時，我們可能會延遲他們幾個月，然後當他們達到 42 歲時可能會落後幾個月，併計劃逐漸燒掉緩衝區。

We're -- there's no time pressure to burn it off, and it's actually providing a good cushion to the production system. So it's serving a good purpose right now.

我們 - 沒有時間壓力來燒掉它，它實際上為生產系統提供了一個很好的緩衝。所以它現在有一個很好的目的。

Okay. Can you quantify the cost optimization for next year?

好的。你能量化明年的成本優化嗎？

Not yet. We're working on that. We'll have more to say at the February earnings call.

還沒有。我們正在努力。在 2 月份的財報電話會議上，我們將有更多話要說。

And will any of that last into your longer-term margins? Or should we consider the vast majority of that to be variable and it eventually comes back?

這些中的任何一個都會持續到您的長期利潤中嗎？還是我們應該認為其中絕大多數是可變的並且最終會回來？

Well, the idea is to improve the -- reduce the structural cost, which ultimately will help margins. Now I know you're probably thinking also, does that mean your 16.5% target would go up? Well, don't forget there's lots of headwinds, and you always have to run fast to stand still.

嗯，這個想法是改善 - 降低結構成本，這最終將有助於利潤率。現在我知道你可能也在想，這是否意味著你的 16.5% 目標會上升？好吧，別忘了有很多逆風，你總是要跑得快才能站穩。

And so I don't -- it will help the long term, obviously. It won't necessarily help us go beyond the 16.5%. We would still have a long way to go to get there, given all of the other pressures like inflation that we're seeing right now in the macroeconomic environment. But it certainly will help.

所以我不——顯然，這將有助於長期。它不一定會幫助我們超過 16.5%。考慮到我們現在在宏觀經濟環境中看到的所有其他壓力，比如通貨膨脹，我們還有很長的路要走。但這肯定會有所幫助。

And our last question for today comes from the line of Peter Arment of Baird.

我們今天的最後一個問題來自 Baird 的 Peter Arment。

Tom and Mark, you both mentioned several times about just the ongoing labor shortages, and you've talked about this for a while. Just maybe you could just update us on where headcount stands in Wichita and what you have to kind of get to I guess, for beyond rate 31, whenever it occurs for you to kind of be able to kind of hit all the targets that you've kind of laid out longer term.

湯姆和馬克，你們都多次提到持續的勞動力短缺問題，而且你們已經談了一段時間了。只是也許你可以更新我們在威奇託的員工人數以及我猜你必須達到的目標，超過 31 倍率，只要你能夠擊中你的所有目標'我們已經制定了長期計劃。

Right. So yes, I mean the issue is that it's -- as we have started to go up in rate, we've had to bring more people on. So for example, we have about 11,000 people in Wichita right now. And we've recalled this year in Wichita about 470 people.

正確的。所以，是的，我的意思是問題是——隨著我們的速度開始上升，我們不得不讓更多的人加入。例如，我們現在在威奇託有大約 11,000 人。我們今年在威奇托召回了大約 470 人。

But yes, we've hired in Wichita over 1,900 new people. And so that gives you just an order of magnitude of roughly 2,300 new people, but 1,900 of those were new hires. And what we're seeing is based on history, the level of attrition is just higher than in the past.

但是，是的，我們在威奇托僱傭了超過 1,900 名新員工。這樣一來，您就可以增加大約 2,300 名新員工，但其中 1,900 名是新員工。而且我們所看到的都是基於歷史的，損耗水平只是比過去高。

I mean, it's gone from about 9% to 12% overall. But what we're seeing is some of the new hires, particularly the entry-level mechanic positions, the attrition rate has actually been even a little bit higher than that.

我的意思是，它總體上從大約 9% 下降到了 12%。但我們看到的是一些新員工，尤其是入門級技工職位，流失率實際上甚至比這高一點。

And so that's -- that kind of took a little bit of us to adjust to that higher level of attrition during Q2 and Q3. We've ended up having to hire more.

所以這就是——我們花了一點時間來適應第二季度和第三季度更高的流失率。我們最終不得不僱用更多人。

I think we're starting to stabilize now. We understand it better. But those are the dynamics, is we've hired now globally over 3,200 new people globally, and 1,900 of those in Wichita.

我認為我們現在開始穩定下來。我們更好地理解它。但這就是動態，我們現在在全球範圍內僱傭了超過 3,200 名新員工，其中 1,900 名在威奇托。

And with the higher levels of attrition, it's meaning that we've had to go back and hire even more. But those are the dynamics. It's a dynamic environment out there.

隨著更高水平的人員流失，這意味著我們不得不回去僱用更多人。但這些都是動態的。這是一個動態的環境。

As I said, in Wichita, we actually had to increase our starting hourly wage, and we're even offering a signing bonus. But that's helping. The job fairs are helping. And we are getting to the point where we're stabilizing at 31, and we'll continue to work on that as we anticipate higher rates in the future.

正如我所說，在威奇托，我們實際上不得不提高我們的起薪小時工資，我們甚至提供簽約獎金。但這很有幫助。招聘會正在提供幫助。我們正在達到穩定在 31 歲的地步，我們將繼續努力，因為我們預計未來會有更高的利率。

Okay. And just a clarification, and Mark, maybe if you have it, just -- do you remember what you were [back at] staffing levels in Wichita back in 2018 in terms of total employment?

好的。只是一個澄清，馬克，也許如果你有它，只是 - 你還記得你在 2018 年在總就業方面 [回到] 威奇託的人員配備水平嗎？

I don't have that, Peter.

我沒有那個，彼得。

We'll get that number and get it out. Rather than just -- yes, I mean I have a rough approximation, but I don't want to give you a number that's not completely accurate. It was higher than the 11,000 that I just quoted.

我們會得到那個號碼並把它拿出來。而不僅僅是——是的，我的意思是我有一個粗略的近似值，但我不想給你一個不完全準確的數字。它高於我剛才引用的 11,000。

Yes, it's in our 10-K. Right.

是的，它在我們的 10-K 中。正確的。

We'll get that out. Okay.

我們會解決的。好的。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the Spirit AeroSystems Holdings Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Thank you for joining, and you may now disconnect your lines.

女士們先生們，Spirit AeroSystems Holdings 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議到此結束。感謝您的加入，您現在可以斷開您的線路。