Spirit AeroSystems Holdings Inc (SPR) 2022 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. First Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Victoria, and I will be your coordinator today. (Operator Instructions)

女士們，先生們，早上好，歡迎參加 Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. 2022 年第一季度收益電話會議。我叫維多利亞，今天我將擔任您的協調員。 （操作員說明）

I'd now like to pass the presentation over to Aaron Hunt, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將演示文稿轉交給投資者關係總監 Aaron Hunt。請繼續。

Thank you, Victoria, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Spirit's First Quarter 2022 Results Call. I'm Aaron Hunt, Director of Investor Relations. And with me today are Spirit's President and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Gentile; Spirit's Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Mark Suchinski; and Spirit's Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer and President of Commercial Division, Sam Marnick. After opening comments by Tom, Sam and Mark regarding our performance and outlook, we will take your questions.

謝謝你，維多利亞，大家早上好。歡迎來到 Spirit 2022 年第一季度業績電話會議。我是投資者關係總監 Aaron Hunt。今天和我在一起的還有 Spirit 的總裁兼首席執行官 Tom Gentile； Spirit 的高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Mark Suchinski； Spirit 的執行副總裁、首席運營官兼商業部門總裁 Sam Marnick。在 Tom、Sam 和 Mark 對我們的表現和前景發表評論後，我們將回答您的問題。

Before we begin, I need to remind you that any projections or goals we may include in our discussion today are likely to involve risks, which are detailed in our earnings release and our SEC filings and the forward-looking statement at the end of this web presentation. In addition, we refer you to our earnings release and presentation for disclosures and reconciliation of non-GAAP measures we use when discussing our results. And as a reminder, you can follow today's broadcast and slide presentation on our website at investor.spiritaero.com.

在開始之前，我需要提醒您，我們今天討論中可能包含的任何預測或目標都可能涉及風險，這在我們的收益發布和我們的 SEC 文件以及本網站末尾的前瞻性聲明中有詳細說明介紹。此外，我們向您推薦我們的收益發布和演示文稿，以披露和協調我們在討論我們的結果時使用的非公認會計原則措施。提醒一下，您可以在我們的網站investor.spiritaero.com 上關註今天的廣播和幻燈片演示。

With that, I would like to turn the call over to our Chief Executive Officer, Tom Gentile.

有了這個，我想把電話轉給我們的首席執行官 Tom Gentile。

Thank you, Aaron, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Spirit's first quarter earnings call. We enjoyed meeting many of you at our Investor Day in March. Based on the positive feedback received from those who travel to Wichita, we are glad we had the opportunity to share with everyone some of the improvements we are making in our factories to prepare for the future.

謝謝你，Aaron，大家早上好。歡迎來到 Spirit 的第一季度財報電話會議。我們很高興在三月份的投資者日與你們中的許多人見面。基於從那些前往威奇託的人那裡得到的積極反饋，我們很高興有機會與大家分享我們在工廠中所做的一些改進，為未來做準備。

Our recovery continues despite ongoing challenges from the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, inflation and supply chain disruptions. Our factories continue to execute on deliveries to our customers, although we have seen some downward revisions in schedule to some programs. We continue to work with Boeing, Airbus and our other customers on production rate scenarios in this dynamic environment. The Russia invasion of Ukraine adds a new element of uncertainty to the recovery.

儘管 COVID-19 大流行、俄羅斯-烏克蘭衝突、通貨膨脹和供應鏈中斷帶來了持續挑戰，但我們的複蘇仍在繼續。我們的工廠繼續向我們的客戶交付貨物，儘管我們看到一些計劃的時間表有所下調。我們將繼續與波音、空中客車和我們的其他客戶在這種動態環境中的生產率方案上合作。俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭為複蘇增添了新的不確定因素。

In terms of revenue, we only have a small amount of Commercial and Aftermarket sales for the Irkut MC-21 that have been affected to date.

就收入而言，迄今為止，我們只有少量 Irkut MC-21 的商業和售後市場銷售受到影響。

In terms of supply chain, we purchased about 90% of our titanium through Boeing and Airbus buying consortiums, and both of them have sufficient stockpiles on hand to meet our immediate needs.

在供應鏈方面，我們約 90% 的鈦是通過波音和空中客車採購聯盟採購的，他們手頭都有足夠的庫存來滿足我們的即時需求。

In terms of our other titanium requirements, we have been able to procure approximately 12 to 18 months of requirements. Both the Boeing and Airbus buying consortia and our own supply chain teams have been developing alternative sources for titanium.

就我們的其他鈦需求而言，我們已經能夠採購大約 12 到 18 個月的需求。波音和空中客車採購聯盟以及我們自己的供應鏈團隊一直在開發鈦的替代來源。

The conflict is also accelerating inflation that had already begun earlier in the quarter. Increased logistics and utility costs have put pressure on our operations. Even though both of these items are a small percentage of our overall costs, we are working to offset the increases.

衝突也在加速本季度早些時候已經開始的通脹。物流和公用事業成本的增加給我們的運營帶來了壓力。儘管這兩個項目只占我們總成本的一小部分，但我們正在努力抵消增加的費用。

One of the ways we work to mitigate inflation in our supply chain is through long-term agreements. In some cases, our agreements with suppliers go out to 2033, which matches the term of our pricing contract on the 737 MAX with Boeing, providing a natural hedge to help mitigate short-term inflationary pressure.

我們減輕供應鏈通貨膨脹的方法之一是通過長期協議。在某些情況下，我們與供應商的協議有效期至 2033 年，這與我們與波音 737 MAX 定價合同的期限相匹配，提供了自然對沖以幫助緩解短期通脹壓力。

In terms of pricing, most of our customer agreements have clauses that help address both labor and material inflation and provide the ability to offset some of the increase in costs.

在定價方面，我們的大多數客戶協議都包含有助於解決勞動力和材料通脹問題的條款，並提供抵消部分成本增加的能力。

As we start to produce at higher rates, we are beginning to see signs of stress at some of our suppliers. Skilled labor availability and challenges with OEM qualifications and approvals are leading us to take actions to secure part supply in order to maintain a healthy production system. Sam will go over a few more details in her remarks on how we are addressing supply chain issues.

隨著我們開始以更高的速度生產，我們開始看到一些供應商的壓力跡象。熟練的勞動力可用性和 OEM 資格和批准的挑戰促使我們採取行動確保零件供應，以維持健康的生產系統。 Sam 將在她關於我們如何解決供應鏈問題的評論中詳細介紹一些細節。

Despite the challenges we have faced, we remain sharply focused on progressing our 3 key priorities: diversifying our revenues, delevering $1 billion over 3 years and driving margins to our 16.5% target.

儘管我們面臨挑戰，但我們仍然非常專注於推進我們的 3 個關鍵優先事項：實現收入多元化、在 3 年內減少 10 億美元的槓桿率以及將利潤率提高到 16.5% 的目標。

Our Belfast site is a key contributor to our diversification efforts. Our Airbus work packages increased significantly from this acquisition with the addition of the A220 integrated wing and center fuselage and strengthened Spirit's position as one of the top external suppliers to Airbus. We also became a top supplier to Bombardier with the addition of significant business jet content on the Challenger and the Global Express.

我們的貝爾法斯特工廠是我們多元化努力的關鍵貢獻者。通過增加 A220 集成機翼和中機身，我們的空中客車工作包顯著增加，並加強了 Spirit 作為空中客車頂級外部供應商之一的地位。我們還成為龐巴迪的頂級供應商，在挑戰者和全球快車上增加了重要的公務機內容。

One significant development recently is that we reached an agreement with the United Kingdom's Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy to retire the launch investment associated with the A220 program earlier than planned. Mark will go into more details on this financial transaction in his remarks.

最近的一項重大進展是，我們與英國商業、能源和工業戰略部達成協議，提前退出與 A220 計劃相關的發射投資。馬克將在他的講話中詳細介紹這項金融交易。

In early April, working with our 2 Belfast Union partners, we also negotiated a new pay agreement that covers more than 2,000 Unite and GMB represented employees in Belfast. The mutually beneficial arrangement, which runs through December of 2023 is an important element in our Commercial segment's future.

4 月初，我們與貝爾法斯特工會的 2 個合作夥伴合作，就一項新的薪酬協議進行了談判，該協議涵蓋了貝爾法斯特的 2,000 多名 Unite 和 GMB 代表員工。互惠互利的安排將持續到 2023 年 12 月，是我們商業部門未來的重要組成部分。

On the 737 MAX program, we are just moving to a production rate of 31 aircraft per month and are planning right now to stay there for the rest of the year. Our expectation is that we will produce 315 737 MAX units during 2022. Given what Boeing has communicated about their production rate, it will now likely take longer than we originally expected to reach a permanent buffer of 20 units of the Boeing-owned inventory in Wichita that will help cushion the production system in the future.

在 737 MAX 計劃中，我們只是將生產速度提高到每月 31 架飛機，並且現在計劃在今年剩餘時間裡保持這種狀態。我們的預期是，我們將在 2022 年生產 315 737 MAX 單位。鑑於波音公司已經傳達了他們的生產率，現在可能需要比我們最初預期的更長的時間才能達到威奇托波音擁有的 20 單位庫存的永久緩衝這將有助於緩衝未來的生產系統。

Turning to the 787 program. We are currently expecting to deliver about 20 units in 2022, a reduction in schedule, which contributed to the forward loss this quarter and created some headwinds to inventory on the program.

轉向787計劃。我們目前預計將在 2022 年交付約 20 台，減少了進度，這導致了本季度的遠期虧損，並對該計劃的庫存造成了一些不利因素。

On Airbus programs, we are generally in line with expectations for the year. Airbus remains extremely bullish on demand for the A320 and the A321 and plans to hit the production rate targets that they have communicated publicly. On the A350, we have begun engineering work on the new freighter, which Airbus has announced for entry into service in 2025.

在空中客車項目上，我們總體上符合今年的預期。空中客車公司仍然非常看好 A320 和 A321 的需求，併計劃達到他們公開傳達的生產率目標。在 A350 上，我們已經開始了新貨機的工程設計工作，空中客車公司已宣布將於 2025 年投入使用。

Our Defense & Space business showed solid growth in the first quarter and we expect to see that growth pick up in the back half of the year as current programs mature. The Defense & Space team had some great wins in this quarter, including winning the development contract announced by Boeing to support the B-52 commercial engine replacement program. We will be responsible for the engine pylons and nacelles on this program. An interesting note is that all of the B-52Hs currently in service today were built in our Wichita facility. We are excited to support the B-52's mission for many years into the future.

我們的國防和航天業務在第一季度表現出穩健的增長，隨著當前項目的成熟，我們預計今年下半年增長將回升。國防與航天團隊在本季度取得了一些重大勝利，包括贏得了波音公司宣布的支持 B-52 商用發動機更換計劃的開發合同。我們將負責該計劃中的發動機掛架和短艙。有趣的是，目前服役的所有 B-52H 都是在我們的威奇托工廠製造的。我們很高興能在未來多年支持 B-52 的使命。

We have a strong Defense & Space pipeline, which is almost entirely focused around Department of Defense programs that are currently in development, but not yet fielded, offering significant long-term upside to our Defense & Space business.

我們擁有強大的國防和太空管道，幾乎完全專注於國防部目前正在開發但尚未部署的項目，為我們的國防和太空業務提供了顯著的長期優勢。

Our Aftermarket business also had a very strong first quarter, growing 52% on the top line and delivering 23% margins. The team achieved this growth even after offsetting the loss of MC-21 Aftermarket revenues. Our Aftermarket team has also been aggressively pursuing new opportunities. Just last week, Boeing Global Services selected Spirit as their partner for 737 MAX nacelle and flight control surface repairs. Our efforts to build a global MRO footprint enable us to serve Boeing's customers around the world with industry-leading turnaround times.

我們的售後市場業務第一季度也表現強勁，收入增長 52%，利潤率達到 23%。即使在抵消了 MC-21 售後市場收入的損失後，該團隊也實現了這一增長。我們的售後市場團隊也一直在積極尋求新的機會。就在上週，波音全球服務公司選擇 Spirit 作為 737 MAX 機艙和飛行控制面維修的合作夥伴。我們努力建立全球 MRO 足跡，使我們能夠以行業領先的周轉時間為波音在全球的客戶提供服務。

We were also pleased to announce a new partnership with Guangzhou Aircraft Maintenance Engineering Company, also known as GAMECO, to serve as an authorized Spirit repair center in China.

我們還很高興地宣布與廣州飛機維修工程公司（也稱為 GAMECO）建立新的合作夥伴關係，作為其在中國的授權維修中心。

I'll now turn it over to Sam to describe how we are driving productivity, rate readiness and growth in our Commercial segment. Sam?

我現在將把它交給 Sam 來描述我們如何在我們的商業部門推動生產力、利率準備和增長。山姆？

Thank you, Tom. we've seen some challenges in the first quarter. However, we're positioning ourselves to benefit from the air traffic recovery that appears to be gaining strength. The continued domestic air travel improvement in many parts of the world is driving narrow-body demand and will be favorable for Spirit as approximately 85% of our backlog is tied to single-aisle aircraft. With that in mind, we remain focused on execution. The narrow-body production rates recently increased, and we're now producing the 737 at a rate of 31 per month.

謝謝你，湯姆。我們在第一季度看到了一些挑戰。然而，我們正在將自己定位為從似乎正在增強的空中交通復甦中受益。世界許多地方國內航空旅行的持續改善正在推動窄體飛機的需求，並將有利於 Spirit，因為我們大約 85% 的積壓訂單與單通道飛機有關。考慮到這一點，我們仍然專注於執行。窄體機的生產速度最近有所提高，我們現在以每月 31 架的速度生產 737。

To date, we've been able to tap our recall list in order to meet all of our staffing needs. In Wichita, we just recently issued the final recalls for those that were furloughed during 2020, and we're recruiting new employees for future staffing needs. Wichita has a strong aviation labor pool of talent from which we can draw.

迄今為止，我們已經能夠利用我們的召回列表來滿足我們所有的人員需求。在威奇托，我們最近剛剛發布了對 2020 年休假人員的最終召回，我們正在招聘新員工以滿足未來的人員需求。威奇托擁有強大的航空人才庫，我們可以從中汲取靈感。

The implementation of digitization and automation projects to drive productivity is tracking to plan, which will support higher rates and improved Commercial segment margins in the future. On our Airbus programs, we also have the staffing in place to meet the rate requirements Airbus has requested.

推動生產力的數字化和自動化項目的實施正在按計劃進行，這將支持未來更高的費率和更高的商業部門利潤率。在我們的空中客車計劃中，我們還配備了人員以滿足空中客車公司要求的費率要求。

We are also working closely with our suppliers to support their rate readiness. Just like the rest of the industry, our supply chain is experiencing some challenges. Examples of the types of support we are providing to assist include logistics, raw material sourcing and inventory management. And in some cases, we are also extending contract terms where the suppliers have demonstrated excellent performance. We're fortunate to have a world-class supply chain and fabrication team that can work with suppliers to mitigate risk and even Blue Street parts where needed. In some cases, we're also dual sourcing some parts to mitigate risk.

我們還與供應商密切合作，以支持他們的費率準備。就像其他行業一樣，我們的供應鏈也面臨著一些挑戰。我們提供協助的支持類型包括物流、原材料採購和庫存管理。在某些情況下，我們還會延長供應商表現出色的合同條款。我們很幸運擁有一個世界級的供應鍊和製造團隊，可以與供應商合作以降低風險，甚至在需要的地方提供 Blue Street 零件。在某些情況下，我們還會對某些部件進行雙重採購以降低風險。

Our Commercial team is also focused on growth. This quarter, we announced that we signed an agreement with Airbus for the development of the City Airbus NextGen's prototype. We'll be responsible for developing and manufacturing the aircraft wings and supporting Airbus' exploration of disruptive aircraft design. We're also actively exploring other options to support the emerging eVTOL market. And in addition, as Tom mentioned, we have begun work on the Airbus A350 Freighter.

我們的商業團隊也專注於增長。本季度，我們宣布與空中客車公司簽署了開發城市空中客車公司 NextGen 原型機的協議。我們將負責開發和製造飛機機翼，並支持空中客車公司對顛覆性飛機設計的探索。我們還在積極探索其他選項來支持新興的 eVTOL 市場。此外，正如湯姆所提到的，我們已經開始研製空客 A350 貨機。

With that, I'll turn it back over to Tom. Tom?

有了這個，我會把它還給湯姆。湯姆?

Thanks, Sam. As expected, the first quarter has been a challenging one on cash attributed partly to the additional working capital we consumed to support the rate break to 31 aircraft per month in the 737 and the increase in rate on the A320. When those programs stabilized at higher rates, our cash position will continue to improve throughout the year. As we have previously communicated, we will be repaying Boeing $123 million this year for the advance on the 737 program in 2019.

謝謝，山姆。正如預期的那樣，第一季度在現金方面具有挑戰性，部分原因是我們消耗了額外的營運資金，以支持將 737 的費率降至每月 31 架飛機以及 A320 的費率增加。當這些計劃穩定在更高的利率時，我們的現金狀況將在全年繼續改善。正如我們之前所傳達的，我們今年將償還波音 1.23 億美元，用於 2019 年 737 計劃的預付款。

Given the current outlook, we now expect an additional $50 million to $100 million of pressure for all of 2022, which means that we expect cash usage for this year to be between negative $175 million and negative $225 million.

鑑於目前的前景，我們現在預計 2022 年全年將面臨額外 5000 萬至 1 億美元的壓力，這意味著我們預計今年的現金使用量將在負 1.75 億美元至負 2.25 億美元之間。

Mark will now take you through the details of our finances for the first quarter results. Mark?

馬克現在將帶您了解我們第一季度業績的財務細節。標記？

Thanks, Tom, and good morning, everyone. As we discussed on last quarter's call, we anticipated the first quarter's financial results would be the lowest of the year with meaningful improvements in the second half of 2022, driven by increased narrow-body deliveries, specifically the 737 and A320 programs. We expect to see this reflected in improvements to our deliveries, revenue, margin and cash flow throughout the rest of the year.

謝謝，湯姆，大家早上好。正如我們在上一季度的電話會議上所討論的那樣，我們預計第一季度的財務業績將是今年最低的，而 2022 年下半年的財務業績將出現顯著改善，這主要得益於窄體飛機交付量的增加，特別是 737 和 A320 計劃。我們預計這將反映在我們今年剩餘時間的交付、收入、利潤率和現金流的改善中。

At the start of 2022, we, like many others around the world, experienced surging COVID-19 cases which created some unexpected pressure. While case rates have declined in our factories, other parts of the globe continue to be adversely impacted by the pandemic, adding to near-term uncertainty. Then the Russian-Ukraine conflict began, which created additional challenges, including the procurement of materials and the exacerbation of inflation that we were experiencing. These pressures, along with the supply chain disruptions and customer schedule changes, have impacted our business and we are aggressively working on initiatives to help mitigate those impacts.

2022 年初，我們與世界上許多其他人一樣，經歷了激增的 COVID-19 病例，這造成了一些意想不到的壓力。雖然我們工廠的病例率有所下降，但全球其他地區繼續受到大流行的不利影響，增加了近期的不確定性。然後，俄羅斯與烏克蘭的衝突開始了，這帶來了額外的挑戰，包括我們正在經歷的材料採購和通貨膨脹加劇。這些壓力，以及供應鏈中斷和客戶日程變更，已經影響了我們的業務，我們正在積極採取措施幫助減輕這些影響。

Now let's move to our first quarter 2022 results. Please turn to Slide 3. Revenue for the first quarter was $1.2 billion, up 30% from the same quarter of last year. This improvement was primarily due to higher production on the 737, A220 and A320 programs as well as increased Aftermarket revenue. These increases were partially offset by lower production on the 787 program.

現在讓我們轉到 2022 年第一季度的業績。請轉到幻燈片 3。第一季度的收入為 12 億美元，比去年同期增長 30%。這一改進主要是由於 737、A220 和 A320 計劃的產量增加以及售後市場收入增加。這些增長被 787 計劃的較低產量部分抵消。

When we look at deliveries, the narrow-body programs in the first quarter of 2022 were 36% higher as compared to 2021, with 233 in the first quarter of 2022 compared to 171 deliveries in the same quarter last year. The 737, A220 and A320 programs each had increased deliveries. The first quarter 737 MAX deliveries were 60 units compared to 29 in the first quarter of last year. Wide-body program deliveries were down 21% to 38 units compared to 48 in the first quarter of '21, driven mainly by the 787 program. Overall, deliveries increased to 321 units compared to 262 in the same period of last year.

當我們查看交付量時，2022 年第一季度的窄體計劃與 2021 年相比增加了 36%，2022 年第一季度交付量為 233 次，而去年同期為 171 次。 737、A220 和 A320 計劃的交付量均有所增加。第一季度 737 MAX 交付量為 60 台，而去年第一季度為 29 台。與 21 年第一季度的 48 架相比，寬體計劃交付量下降了 21% 至 38 架，主要受 787 計劃的推動。總體而言，交付量從去年同期的 262 輛增加到 321 輛。

Now let's turn to earnings per share on Slide 4. We reported earnings per share of negative $0.51 compared to negative $1.65 per share in the first quarter of 2021. Adjusted EPS was positive $0.03 compared to negative $1.22 in the same period last year. 2022 adjusted EPS excludes the deferred tax asset valuation allowance. 2021 adjusted EPS excludes cost related M&A, restructuring as well as the deferred tax asset valuation allowance.

現在讓我們轉向幻燈片 4 的每股收益。我們報告的每股收益為負 0.51 美元，而 2021 年第一季度為負 1.65 美元。調整後的每股收益為正 0.03 美元，而去年同期為負 1.22 美元。 2022 年調整後的每股收益不包括遞延所得稅資產估值津貼。 2021 年調整後的每股收益不包括與成本相關的併購、重組以及遞延所得稅資產估值津貼。

We focus on operating margin. We saw improvements to negative 4% compared to negative 14% in the first quarter of 2021, reflecting increasing production rates and lower costs associated with excess capacity and changes in estimates recorded during the current period compared to the same quarter last year.

我們專注於營業利潤率。與 2021 年第一季度的負 14% 相比，我們看到了負 4% 的改善，這反映了與去年同期相比，與產能過剩相關的生產率提高和成本降低以及當前期間記錄的估計變化。

Forward losses in the first quarter of 2022 were $24 million, primarily driven by further production rate decreases and cost of rework on the 787 program as well as increased cost of quality and production rate increases -- decreases on the A350 program. Unfavorable cumulative catch-up adjustments totaled $26 million and were driven by increased estimates for supply chain, raw material and other costs on the 737 program. In comparison, during the first quarter of 2021, we recorded $72 million of forward losses driven by lower production rates on the 787 and A350 programs and $6 million of unfavorable cumulative catch-up adjustments.

2022 年第一季度的遠期虧損為 2400 萬美元，主要是由於 787 計劃的生產率進一步下降和返工成本以及質量成本增加和生產率增加——A350 計劃的減少。不利的累積追趕調整總計 2600 萬美元，原因是對 737 計劃的供應鏈、原材料和其他成本的估計增加。相比之下，在 2021 年第一季度，我們記錄了 7200 萬美元的遠期損失，原因是 787 和 A350 計劃的生產率下降以及 600 萬美元的不利累積追趕調整。

First quarter 2022 earnings included $50 million of excess capacity costs, a decrease of $18 million over the same period of 2021 as well as abnormal costs related to COVID-19 of $10 million, an increase of $7 million over the first quarter of 2021 due to the impact of the COVID-19 cases that hit us at the beginning of the year. Additionally, earnings included $33 million related to the Aviation Manufacturing Jobs Protection Program, which was awarded during the third quarter of 2021. Other income for the first quarter of 2022 was $25 million better than the same period last year, resulting mainly from foreign currency exchange gains.

2022 年第一季度的收益包括 5000 萬美元的產能過剩成本，比 2021 年同期減少 1800 萬美元，以及與 COVID-19 相關的異常成本 1000 萬美元，比 2021 年第一季度增加 700 萬美元，原因是今年年初襲擊我們的 COVID-19 病例的影響。此外，收益包括與航空製造業就業保護計劃相關的 3300 萬美元，該計劃於 2021 年第三季度授予。2022 年第一季度的其他收入比去年同期增加 2500 萬美元，主要來自外匯兌換收益。

Now let's turn to free cash flow on Slide 5. Free cash flow usage for the quarter was $298 million. Historically, first quarter free cash flow has always been impacted by the seasonality of cash receipts related to the year-end annual holiday shutdown as well as employee benefit-related payments. Cash usage was $100 million higher this quarter compared to the same period of 2021 driven by higher working capital due to increased production activities as well as quarterly cash repayment of $31 million related to the Boeing 737 Advance we received in 2019. We also made a payment on the repayable investment agreement with the U.K. Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy and $15 million of that payment is reflected within free cash flow.

現在讓我們轉向幻燈片 5 上的自由現金流。本季度的自由現金流使用量為 2.98 億美元。從歷史上看，第一季度的自由現金流一直受到與年終假期關閉相關的現金收入的季節性以及與員工福利相關的付款的影響。與 2021 年同期相比，本季度的現金使用量增加了 1 億美元，原因是生產活動增加導致營運資金增加，以及與 2019 年收到的波音 737 預付款相關的季度現金償還 3100 萬美元。我們還支付了款項與英國商業、能源和工業戰略部簽訂的可償還投資協議，其中 1500 萬美元反映在自由現金流中。

The surge in COVID-19 cases at the beginning of 2022 resulted in cash outflows of $10 million. Then to address the conflict in Russia and Ukraine, we added additional inventory, including titanium to mitigate potential disruptions to our production system.

2022 年初 COVID-19 病例激增導致現金流出 1000 萬美元。然後，為了解決俄羅斯和烏克蘭的衝突，我們增加了額外的庫存，包括鈦，以減輕對我們生產系統的潛在干擾。

During the first quarter of this year, Spirit received $14 million of the AMJP program grant awarded in 2021 and the remaining $24 million is anticipated to be received in the remainder of 2022. Looking ahead, the recent downward revisions to production schedules for some of our programs will add additional pressures, specifically on earnings and cash related to the 737 program and slower inventory burn down than previously expected on the 787 program.

今年第一季度，Spirit 獲得了 2021 年授予的 1400 萬美元的 AMJP 計劃贈款，其餘的 2400 萬美元預計將在 2022 年剩餘時間內收到。展望未來，我們的一些生產計劃最近向下修訂計劃將增加額外的壓力，特別是與 737 計劃相關的收益和現金，以及比之前對 787 計劃的預期更慢的庫存消耗。

Given the customer schedule changes, supply chain disruptions, Ukraine-Russia conflict and inflationary pressures, we are now expecting full year 2022 free cash flow usage to be between $175 million to $225 million, inclusive of the $123 million Boeing Advance repayment. This reflects estimated capital expenditures of $150 million to $175 million.

鑑於客戶日程安排變化、供應鏈中斷、烏克蘭-俄羅斯衝突和通脹壓力，我們現在預計 2022 年全年自由現金流使用量將在 1.75 億美元至 2.25 億美元之間，其中包括 1.23 億美元的波音預付款。這反映了 1.5 億至 1.75 億美元的估計資本支出。

With that, let's turn to our cash and debt balances on Slide 6. We ended the quarter with $1.2 billion of cash and roughly $3.8 billion of debt. In April, we reached an agreement with the U.K.'s Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy to retire the outstanding repayable investment agreement, which we acquired as part of the acquisition of selected assets of Bombardier in 2020. This resulted in a cash payment of $291 million made in April. This transaction will be reflected in our second quarter 2022 financials. I would add that this will reduce interest related cash outflows annually and into the future.

有了這個，讓我們轉向幻燈片 6 上的現金和債務餘額。本季度末我們有 12 億美元的現金和大約 38 億美元的債務。 4 月，我們與英國商業、能源和工業戰略部達成協議，終止未償還的投資協議，該協議是我們在 2020 年收購龐巴迪選定資產的一部分。這導致了現金支付4 月份的 2.91 億美元。該交易將反映在我們 2022 年第二季度的財務報表中。我要補充一點，這將減少每年和未來與利息相關的現金流出。

Now let's turn to segment performance, and we'll begin with Commercial on Slide 7. In the first quarter of 2022, Commercial revenue increased 35% compared to 2021, primarily due to higher production volumes on the 737, A220, A320, partially offset by lower production on the 787. Operating margin for the quarter increased to breakeven compared to negative 12% in the same quarter of 2021. The improvement in operating margin was due to higher volumes on the 737, lower excess capacity costs, lower changes in estimates as well as income related to the AMJP program of $28 million. The segment recorded $26 million of net forward losses and $26 million of unfavorable cumulative catch-up adjustments during the first quarter of 2022. In comparison, during the same period of 2021, the segment recorded $68 million of forward losses and $8 million of unfavorable cumulative catch-up adjustments.

現在讓我們轉向細分市場表現，我們將從幻燈片 7 上的商業開始。在 2022 年第一季度，商業收入與 2021 年相比增長了 35%，這主要是由於 737、A220、A320 的產量增加，部分抵消了由於 787 的產量下降。本季度的營業利潤率增加到盈虧平衡，而 2021 年同一季度為負 12%。營業利潤率的提高是由於 737 的銷量增加、過剩產能成本降低、估計變化減少以及與 AMJP 計劃相關的 2800 萬美元收入。該部門在 2022 年第一季度錄得 2600 萬美元的淨遠期虧損和 2600 萬美元的不利累積追補調整。相比之下，在 2021 年同期，該部門錄得 6800 萬美元的遠期虧損和 800 萬美元的不利累積追趕調整。

Now let's turn to Defense & Space segment on Slide 8. Defense & Space revenue improved by 3% compared to the first quarter of 2021 due to increased P-8 production and development program activity. Operating margin for the quarter was 13% compared to 8% in the same quarter of 2021. The improved operating margin was driven by solid execution, favorable changes in estimates and lower excess capacity costs compared to the prior year. The segment recorded excess capacity costs of $3 million and favorable forward loss adjustments of $2 million compared to excess capacity costs and forward losses each of $5 million in the first quarter of 2021.

現在讓我們轉向幻燈片 8 上的國防與航天部分。由於 P-8 生產和開發計劃活動的增加，國防與航天收入與 2021 年第一季度相比增長了 3%。本季度的營業利潤率為 13%，而 2021 年同期為 8%。與上年相比，穩健的執行、有利的估計變化和較低的過剩產能成本推動了營業利潤率的提高。該部門記錄了 300 萬美元的產能過剩成本和 200 萬美元的有利遠期虧損調整，而 2021 年第一季度的產能過剩成本和遠期虧損均為 500 萬美元。

For our Aftermarket segment results, let's now turn to Slide 9. Aftermarket revenues were up 52% compared to the same period of 2021, driven by higher spare part sales as well as higher maintenance, repair and overhaul activity. Operating margin for the quarter improved to 23% compared to 21% in the first quarter of 2021, driven by favorable product mix recognized during the first quarter of 2022. Our Aftermarket team continues to win new business, and we are excited about the growth potential of this segment.

對於我們的售後市場部門結果，現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 9。售後市場收入與 2021 年同期相比增長了 52%，這得益於更高的備件銷售以及更高的維護、維修和大修活動。本季度營業利潤率從 2021 年第一季度的 21% 提高到 23%，這得益於 2022 年第一季度認可的有利產品組合。我們的售後市場團隊繼續贏得新業務，我們對增長潛力感到興奮該段的。

In closing, the recent downward revisions to production schedules for some of our programs will add pressure, specifically on the 737 and 787 programs. We are also facing supply chain disruptions as well as geopolitical and inflationary challenges that are putting pressure on freight, utilities and logistical costs.

最後，我們最近對一些計劃的生產計劃進行的向下修訂將增加壓力，特別是對 737 和 787 計劃。我們還面臨供應鏈中斷以及地緣政治和通脹挑戰，這些挑戰給貨運、公用事業和物流成本帶來壓力。

The Russian-Ukraine conflict has caused us to strategically increase some material inventory to minimize production pressures down the road. Although these challenges will have an impact in the near term, we remain focused on positioning ourselves to benefit from air traffic recovery, and we are remaining focused on execution and preparing for the various rate increases that we will see in the coming months.

俄烏衝突導致我們戰略性地增加一些材料庫存，以盡量減少未來的生產壓力。儘管這些挑戰將在短期內產生影響，但我們仍然專注於定位自己以從空中交通復甦中受益，我們將繼續專注於執行並為未來幾個月將看到的各種費率上漲做準備。

Now let's turn over this back over to Tom for some closing comments.

現在讓我們把它交給 Tom 來做一些結束評論。

Thanks, Mark. Our Spirit team has responded well given the challenging circumstances. The Commercial business will continue to benefit from the narrow-body recovery and future rate increases. The 737 MAX program's increase to 31 aircraft per month is an important milestone, and we expect to sustain that rate through the remainder of the year. The A220 and A320 programs continue to be in sync with Airbus, and we remain on plan to achieve the increased production rates that Airbus has announced.

謝謝，馬克。鑑於充滿挑戰的情況，我們的 Spirit 團隊反應良好。商業業務將繼續受益於窄體復甦和未來加息。將 737 MAX 計劃增加到每月 31 架飛機是一個重要的里程碑，我們預計將在今年剩餘時間內保持這一速度。 A220 和 A320 計劃繼續與空中客車公司保持同步，我們仍按計劃實現空中客車公司宣布的提高生產率。

Our diversification efforts had solid progress across all 3 segments. The Commercial segment secured an important work package on the new Airbus eVTOL aircraft. Our Defense team won work for the B-52 commercial engine replacement program and the Aftermarket business announced partnerships with Boeing and GAMECO.

我們的多元化努力在所有三個領域都取得了穩步進展。商業部門獲得了新空中客車 eVTOL 飛機的重要工作包。我們的國防團隊贏得了 B-52 商用發動機更換計劃的工作，售後業務宣布與波音和 GAMECO 建立合作夥伴關係。

As we expected, the first quarter was a challenging one. As the narrow-body production rates stabilized on the MAX, an increase on the A320 throughout the year, our financial results are positioned to continue to improve.

正如我們所料，第一季度充滿挑戰。隨著 MAX 的窄體生產率穩定，A320 全年的增長，我們的財務業績有望繼續改善。

With that, we'll be happy to take your questions.

有了這個，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from Robert Spingarn from Melius Research.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Robert Spingarn。

Either Tom or Sam, I wanted to ask you about inflation risk either in your fixed price contracts or contracts where protections may not keep up with inflation. And then as part of that, how should we think about your upcoming -- your expiring machines' contract next year? I think it covers about 6,000 people. And how might that factor into your future costs and your ability to hit the 16.5% margin?

無論是湯姆還是山姆，我都想問您關於固定價格合同或保護措施可能跟不上通貨膨脹的合同中的通貨膨脹風險。然後作為其中的一部分，我們應該如何考慮您即將到期的 - 明年即將到期的機器合同？我認為它涵蓋了大約 6,000 人。以及這對您未來的成本和達到 16.5% 利潤率的能力有何影響？

Well, on inflation, we have obviously lots of different contracts and all of them are somewhat different. But typically, on the Boeing contracts, the way inflation and escalation works is that we absorbed the first amount up to a threshold and then we split it above that. But in both the Airbus and Boeing examples, they are responsible essentially for the raw material costs. And so we have these buying consortia that I mentioned, TMX for Boeing combat for Airbus. And they take care of buying all of the raw materials for their respective programs and that helps us protect against and mitigate inflation.

好吧，在通貨膨脹方面，我們顯然有很多不同的合約，而且它們都有些不同。但通常情況下，在波音合同中，通脹和升級的運作方式是我們將第一筆金額吸收到一個閾值，然後我們將其拆分到該閾值之上。但在空客和波音的例子中，它們主要負責原材料成本。所以我們有我提到的這些採購聯盟，波音公司的 TMX 和空中客車公司的戰鬥。他們負責為各自的項目購買所有原材料，這有助於我們防止和減輕通貨膨脹。

As I mentioned, we also have long-term agreements in place with a lot of our suppliers that go out as far out as our MAX pricing contract, for example, to 2033, which creates a natural hedge. So those are some of the ways that we mitigate inflation and the way our contracts work.

正如我所提到的，我們還與我們的許多供應商簽訂了長期協議，這些協議的期限最長到我們的 MAX 定價合同，例如，到 2033 年，這創造了自然對沖。因此，這些是我們減輕通貨膨脹的一些方式以及我們的合同運作方式。

With regard to the IAM, the contract is due in June of 2023. We extended that in -- at the beginning of 2020, and we've already been in discussions with our union partners about that, and we'll continue to work with them in anticipation of that. We have taken into account that contract as we think about our long-term projections and the 16.5% margins.

關於 IAM，合同將於 2023 年 6 月到期。我們在 2020 年初延長了合同期限，我們已經與工會合作夥伴就此進行了討論，我們將繼續與他們對此有所期待。在考慮我們的長期預測和 16.5% 的利潤率時，我們已經考慮了該合同。

As I've always said, in this industry, you have to run fast to stand still. And even though we're driving productivity and supply chain and in our factory operations, we have headwinds in terms of labor increases, raw material increases, other inflation and things like logistics or utilities. And so we have to offset all those in order to achieve the 16.5%, and we are taking that into account as we make those projections.

就像我一直說的，在這個行業，你必須跑得快才能站穩腳跟。儘管我們正在推動生產力和供應鏈以及我們的工廠運營，但我們在勞動力增加、原材料增加、其他通貨膨脹以及物流或公用事業等方面遇到了不利因素。因此，我們必須抵消所有這些以實現 16.5%，我們在做出這些預測時會考慮到這一點。

And I guess the price step down as well on 37, if you get above 42?

如果你超過 42，我猜價格也會在 37 下降？

Yes, we've taken that into account as well. Because don't forget, when production goes above 42, we'll be obviously delivering a lot more units and generating a lot more revenue and total profit dollars, even though we -- the pricing goes into a discount once we go above 42.

是的，我們也考慮到了這一點。因為不要忘記，當產量超過 42 時，我們顯然會交付更多的單位並產生更多的收入和總利潤，即使我們 - 一旦我們超過 42，定價就會打折。

Our next question comes from Seth Seifman from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Seth Seifman。

I want to dig in a little bit more on this question of 737 profitability. Can you tell us how large the block size is for the 737 right now and how much of it is remaining? And then, I guess, to the extent that you have seen these cost pressures, how do you think about how enduring they might be versus how much of them are tied up in potentially temporary shortages of certain materials? And thus -- I'll leave it there with those 2.

我想在 737 的盈利能力這個問題上再深入一點。你能告訴我們現在 737 的塊大小有多大，還有多少？然後，我想，在您已經看到這些成本壓力的情況下，您如何看待它們可能有多持久，而其中有多少是由於某些材料可能暫時短缺而造成的？因此 - 我將把它留在那裡 2。

Seth, why don't I jump in and then Tom could add some color here. Our current accounting contract on the 737 that we just started here in April is roughly 200 shipsets. And so that's the typical size of our 73 accounting contracts, which are tied to purchase commitments by our customer.

賽斯，我為什麼不跳進去，然後湯姆可以在這裡添加一些顏色。我們在 4 月份剛剛開始的 737 的當前會計合同大約是 200 套。這就是我們 73 份會計合同的典型規模，這些合同與我們客戶的採購承諾相關。

Just a couple of comments from me. Obviously, when you -- we think about us holding 31 a month through the rest of the year, the majority of that contract should end up and close out before we get through the rest of the year. So any near-term inflation could put pressure on the 737 margins as we think about 2022. And we're seeing it. I mean we're -- it's obvious the month of March, we looked at the inflationary measures 8.5%. And so significantly higher sustained inflation over the next several months or the course of 2022 could put some pressure on labor costs and other costs that we mentioned.

只是我的一些評論。顯然，當你 - 我們認為我們在今年剩餘時間裡每個月持有 31 份合同時，該合同的大部分應該在我們度過今年剩餘時間之前結束並關閉。因此，當我們想到 2022 年時，任何近期的通脹都可能對 737 的利潤率造成壓力。我們正在看到它。我的意思是我們 - 很明顯 3 月份，我們查看了 8.5% 的通脹指標。因此，未來幾個月或 2022 年持續通脹顯著上升可能會給勞動力成本和我們提到的其他成本帶來一些壓力。

But we're working hard on it. The rate increase from 21 to 31 is significant. It's a 33% production rate increase that will have a significant help on the revenue earnings, and we'll also absorb our overhead costs and significantly reduce excess capacity costs. So we're looking forward to it. We're delivering at that rate starting this week. We're excited the production system is ready for it. We invested heavily. We made some decisions in the first quarter to make sure that we protected our 31 a month rate increase. And so where that thing -- that's where kind of things stand here in the near term.

但我們正在努力。從 21 到 31 的增長率是顯著的。生產率提高 33% 將對收入產生重大幫助，我們還將吸收我們的間接成本並顯著降低過剩產能成本。所以我們很期待。從本週開始，我們將以這個速度交付。我們很高興生產系統已經為它做好了準備。我們投入巨資。我們在第一季度做出了一些決定，以確保我們保護我們每月 31 次的加息。所以那件事在哪裡——這就是短期內這種事情的所在。

And Seth, I would just add to that. You asked about cost pressures this year. Most of our costs are really already locked up in long-term contracts with our suppliers and then we have our customer contracts. And so in terms of raw materials and detailed parts, those are already locked up. And as we just talked about, our labor contract with our biggest union goes through June of next year. So those are fairly stable as we're looking at this year.

賽斯，我想補充一下。您詢問了今年的成本壓力。我們的大部分成本實際上已經鎖定在與供應商的長期合同中，然後我們有了客戶合同。所以在原材料和細節部分方面，已經被鎖定了。正如我們剛剛談到的，我們與最大工會的勞動合同將持續到明年 6 月。因此，正如我們今年所看到的那樣，這些都相當穩定。

Where we see some inflationary pressures if we have to buy some commodities on the spot market incrementally or in some things like utilities and logistics. And those are subject to some increases. But as I said in my comments, this was a relatively small percentage of our total cost even though we're seeing some inflationary pressures. So I would say overall, the cost pressures are mitigated just because of the long-term contracts that we have in place.

如果我們不得不在現貨市場上逐步購買一些商品，或者在公用事業和物流等領域購買一些商品，我們會看到一些通脹壓力。這些會有所增加。但正如我在評論中所說，這在我們的總成本中只佔相對較小的比例，儘管我們看到了一些通脹壓力。所以我想說，總體而言，僅僅因為我們簽訂了長期合同，成本壓力就得到了緩解。

Our next question comes from Ken Herbert from RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Ken Herbert。

Tom or Mark, I'm wondering with the change in the free cash flow guide and the incremental costs, can you just talk about the key moving pieces sort of between the upper end and the lower end of the guide now for this year and what's changed, obviously, over the last few months as you think about where the sort of the incremental risk, but sort of the -- what's helping to bracket the range there and the key pieces in the range?

湯姆或馬克，我想知道自由現金流指南和增量成本的變化，你能談談今年指南的高端和低端之間的關鍵移動部分嗎？顯然，在過去幾個月中，當您考慮增量風險的種類時發生了變化，但是--什麼有助於將那裡的範圍和範圍中的關鍵部分括起來？

Yes. Ken, I'll start. The first thing is we have had some schedule changes from our customer, specifically on 787 has come down as Boeing continues to work through getting it back into delivery. The other is on the 737, earlier in the year, we were looking at scenarios where there might be yet another rate break this year. We don't anticipate that now. We expect that will stay at 31 for the rest of the year. So those were a couple of initial headwinds.

是的。肯，我要開始了。第一件事是我們的客戶對我們的時間表進行了一些更改，特別是隨著波音公司繼續努力使其恢復交付，787 已經下降。另一個是在 737 上，今年早些時候，我們正在研究今年可能再次降息的情況。我們現在沒有預料到。我們預計今年剩餘時間將保持在 31 歲。所以這些是最初的一些不利因素。

The other is, as we've been discussing, some supply chain disruptions. We're having to help some suppliers that get into distress with raw material purchases or on-site support or moving parts as the case may be. So that is a challenge. We have had some raw material buy heads, especially on titanium to secure some stockpiles and make sure we had adequate supplies that was about $10 million in the first quarter, but we felt that was a good investment to protect the production system.

正如我們一直在討論的那樣，另一個是一些供應鏈中斷。我們必須幫助一些因採購原材料或現場支持或移動部件而陷入困境的供應商，視情況而定。所以這是一個挑戰。我們有一些原材料採購頭，特別是鈦，以確保一些庫存，並確保我們在第一季度有大約 1000 萬美元的充足供應，但我們認為這是保護生產系統的良好投資。

As Mark mentioned, January with the Omicron variant was particularly heavy in January and that created about $10 million of pressure. And then as I mentioned, some inflation on logistics and utilities. So all of those things are going to drive that additional $50 million to $100 million of headwind that we said. Now we're going to continue to work on that, but we just wanted to give everybody the outlook that right now, we're looking at negative $175 million to negative $225 million for the quarter -- or for the year, which includes the $123 million payment to Boeing.

正如 Mark 提到的，1 月份的 Omicron 變體在 1 月份尤為沈重，這造成了大約 1000 萬美元的壓力。然後正如我提到的，物流和公用事業的一些通貨膨脹。因此，所有這些都將推動我們所說的額外 5000 萬到 1 億美元的逆風。現在我們將繼續努力，但我們只是想給大家一個前景，現在，我們看到本季度或全年的負 1.75 億美元至負 2.25 億美元，其中包括向波音公司支付 1.23 億美元。

Great. So just to clarify, the delta between potentially the $50 million or $100 million incremental use, it sounds like that risk is really supply chain as you should feel pretty good about visibility on MAX and 787 now.

偉大的。因此，澄清一下，潛在的 5000 萬美元或 1 億美元的增量使用之間的差異，聽起來風險確實是供應鏈，因為您現在應該對 MAX 和 787 的可見性感到非常好。

That's correct.

這是正確的。

Our next question comes from David Strauss from Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊的大衛施特勞斯。

So Tom, I just wanted to follow up on the MAX comment because, I guess, I'm a little confused because I think before -- or I guess today, now you're talking about 315 units delivered production to Boeing this year and I think before you had kind of implied a similar level without specifically calling out an actual number, but you certainly implied something in the lowest 300 range, but you're saying these downward revisions, the MAX rate as a reason for taking down the free cash flow forecast.

所以湯姆，我只是想跟進 MAX 的評論，因為我想我有點困惑，因為我之前認為——或者我想今天，現在你說的是今年向波音公司交付了 315 台產品，並且我認為在您沒有明確指出實際數字的情況下暗示了類似的水平之前，但您肯定暗示了最低 300 範圍內的某些東西，但是您說的是這些向下修正，最大利率是取消免費的理由現金流量預測。

Yes. Well, as I mentioned earlier in the year, at the last earnings call, we thought there might be yet another rate increase this year. We now don't think that will happen, and we're going to be at the 315 level for the year, as we stay at 31 aircraft per month for the rest of the year. So that's really the situation.

是的。好吧，正如我在今年早些時候提到的，在上次財報電話會議上，我們認為今年可能還會再次加息。我們現在認為這不會發生，我們今年將保持在 315 架飛機的水平，因為我們在今年剩下的時間裡每月保持 31 架飛機。所以情況確實如此。

And any -- I guess, what is the expectation now in terms of drawing down your buffer inventory from, I guess, it's currently around 100 down to that 20 level. What do you think the time frame is on that now?

任何——我想，現在對減少緩衝庫存的期望是什麼，我想，目前大約是 100 到 20 的水平。你認為現在的時間框架是什麼？

Yes. Well, it's currently about 85. It's been as low as 75, but it's bouncing around a little bit. And I expect it's going to kind of plateau here for while we are at the same rate as Boeing. And so it's going to take longer. I expect it's going to go now into next year before we get down to the 20 level. Don't know exactly when it depends really on when Boeing increases their production rate above the 31 and we start to burn that down.

是的。嗯，目前大約是 85。它曾低至 75，但它有點反彈。而且我預計在我們與波音公司處於相同速度的情況下，它會在這裡趨於平穩。所以這將需要更長的時間。我預計它會在我們降到 20 級之前進入明年。不知道具體何時真正取決於波音何時將其生產率提高到 31 架以上，我們開始將其燒毀。

Our next question comes from Sheila Kahyaoglu from Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

Just sticking to the MAX, of course, when we think about the MAX at 31 a month stable for '22, how do you see that going up potentially in '23? Do you -- Tom, do you think that could be -- or Mark, do you think that could be potentially a supply constraint where you don't have the inventory available or the labor available or a demand constraint? Like what do you think about that? And if cost pressures, if you're eating 75% of the cost on those contracts, like how do you think about how you negotiate that?

當然，只要堅持 MAX，當我們考慮到 22 年每月 31 個穩定的 MAX 時，您如何看待 23 年可能會上升？你 - 湯姆，你認為這可能是 - 還是馬克，你認為這可能是一個潛在的供應限制，你沒有可用的庫存或可用的勞動力或需求限制？比如你怎麼看？如果有成本壓力，如果你在這些合同上承擔了 75% 的成本，比如你如何考慮如何談判？

Right. Well, first of all, we don't know what the rates will be in '23 yet. Boeing hasn't communicated that. And so we'll wait to see.

對。好吧，首先，我們還不知道 23 年的費率是多少。波音公司尚未就此進行溝通。所以我們拭目以待。

With regard to supply, we don't anticipate any supply constraints. We have some disruption in our supply chain, but we're mitigating it. And one thing that we have is we have a very strong fabrication operation. We make over 32,000 parts ourselves. And we have a lot of what we call Blue Street capabilities. So if a supplier gets into trouble, we can quickly manufacture that part. Many of the parts we used to manufacture ourselves, and things always are moving in and out of our own fabrication shops. So there is no constraint in terms of supply in meeting any production rate increases in the future. And we'll wait to see from Boeing what those will be. But right now, we're expecting we're going to be at 31 for the rest of this year.

在供應方面，我們預計不會有任何供應限制。我們的供應鏈出現了一些中斷，但我們正在緩解它。我們擁有的一件事是我們擁有非常強大的製造業務。我們自己製造超過 32,000 個零件。我們有很多我們稱之為藍街的能力。因此，如果供應商遇到麻煩，我們可以快速製造該零件。我們過去自己製造的許多零件，總是進出我們自己的製造車間。因此，在滿足未來任何生產率增長的情況下，供應方面沒有任何限制。我們將拭目以待波音公司會是什麼。但現在，我們預計今年剩餘時間我們將達到 31 歲。

Our next question comes from Doug Harned from Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自 Bernstein 的 Doug Harned。

On the 16.5% margin, this has been tied -- you all have tied this to the 42-month rate on the MAX. But can you talk about what is also implied in terms of assumptions on your other programs to get to that 16.5% margin, the A350, 787? How do you get to that number, assuming the MAX goes as you expect?

在 16.5% 的利潤率上，這已經綁定了——你們都已經將這與 MAX 的 42 個月利率綁定了。但是，您能否談談對您的其他程序（A350、787）進行 16.5% 利潤率的假設時還暗示了什麼？假設 MAX 符合您的預期，您如何獲得該數字？

Yes, Doug. Well, for one, as you know, MAX still is a major driver of our overall economics. And so we just use 42 aircraft per month on a MAX as a surrogate for kind of long-term stability. But we're also just assuming more or less what the OEMs have communicated publicly in terms of their production rates.

是的，道格。好吧，正如你所知，MAX 仍然是我們整體經濟的主要推動力。所以我們每個月只在 MAX 上使用 42 架飛機作為長期穩定性的替代品。但我們也只是或多或少地假設原始設備製造商在其生產率方面公開交流過的內容。

So for example, on the 787, we try to give you some indication right now for this year, we're looking at '20. But once Boeing starts delivering it again, they'll increase the rates. And those are the kind of assumptions that we've incorporated into our long-term planning on the margin.

因此，例如，在 787 上，我們現在嘗試為您提供今年的一些指示，我們正在尋找 20 年。但是一旦波音再次開始交付，他們就會提高費率。這些是我們在邊際上納入長期計劃的假設。

And on 777, Boeing made some announcements in terms of a delay on the introduction of the 777X, but some of that will be offset by Freighters in the near term. So we haven't really changed any assumptions on the 777.

在 777 上，波音公司發布了一些關於推遲推出 777X 的公告，但其中一些將在短期內被貨機公司所抵消。所以我們並沒有真正改變對 777 的任何假設。

And then on the Airbus programs, we're really just in lockstep with where Airbus has communicated. So for example, on the A320, they've said they're going to be at 65 by mid of 2023, and so that's what we've incorporated. And on the A350, they're planning to get up to about 5 or 6 aircraft per month as they get into 2023. So that's what we've included. And on the A220, we're right now at about between 5 and 6 aircraft per month, and they're planning to get to 14 by the middle of 2025.

然後在空中客車項目上，我們真的與空中客車公司溝通的地方步調一致。例如，在 A320 上，他們說他們將在 2023 年中期達到 65 架，這就是我們合併的內容。在 A350 上，他們計劃到 2023 年每月增加約 5 或 6 架飛機。這就是我們所包含的。在 A220 上，我們現在每月大約有 5 到 6 架飛機，他們計劃到 2025 年年中達到 14 架。

So those are the basic assumptions that we have built into that 16.5% projection. But again, the biggest driver is going to be the MAX. And what we've said is when we get to 42 at a sustained rate is that's when we think we can hit the 16.5% margins.

因此，這些是我們在 16.5% 預測中建立的基本假設。但同樣，最大的驅動力將是 MAX。我們所說的是，當我們以持續的速度達到 42 時，我們認為我們可以達到 16.5% 的利潤率。

Well, and on the MAX, when you talk about the 31 a month through the rest of this year, what's the typical lead time in terms of the signal? In other words, if you were going to be looking to go a breakup to, let's say, 42 at Boeing, how far in advance do you typically get that signal and are able to react to it?

好吧，在 MAX 上，當您談到今年剩餘時間每月 31 次時，就信號而言，典型的提前期是多少？換句話說，如果你打算分手，比如說在波音公司 42 歲，你通常會提前多長時間收到這個信號並能夠對它做出反應？

Well, typically, it's 6 months. But there's nothing typical about the last couple of years. We've had much shorter lead times for both increases and decreases. So look, we've got to be agile and we've got to work with Boeing based on the market. And we are going to be agile, and we will listen to both them and Airbus and make sure we're ready to deliver on what their requirements are.

嗯，通常是6個月。但過去幾年沒有什麼典型的。對於增加和減少，我們的交貨時間要短得多。所以看，我們必須靈活，我們必鬚根據市場與波音合作。我們將變得敏捷，我們將聽取他們和空中客車公司的意見，並確保我們準備好滿足他們的要求。

Our next question comes from George Shapiro from Shapiro Research.

我們的下一個問題來自夏皮羅研究公司的喬治夏皮羅。

Mark, I wanted to ask, if I take out all of the kind of excess costs and the AMJP in the quarter, the underlying margin in Commercial is about 8%. I know you don't take out excess costs, so you would be around 3%. Going forward for the rest of the year, how would you expect that number to change?

馬克，我想問一下，如果我剔除本季度所有的超額成本和 AMJP，商業的基本利潤率約為 8%。我知道你不會扣除超額成本，所以你會在 3% 左右。展望今年餘下的時間，您預計該數字將如何變化？

Well, thanks for the question, George. I think we've talked about this in the past. As we talked here, we're now producing and delivering at 31 aircraft per month on the 737 program, which is our strongest performing program. And when you think about the lift from a financial standpoint, obviously, we're going to have the revenue. But we would expect that 33% production increase on an incremental basis to help our margins, help our profitability specifically on that program by somewhere in the ballpark of 25% to 30%.

好吧，謝謝你的問題，喬治。我想我們過去已經討論過這個問題。正如我們在這裡所說的，我們現在在 737 計劃中每月生產和交付 31 架飛機，這是我們表現最強勁的計劃。當您從財務角度考慮提升時，顯然，我們將獲得收入。但我們預計產量增加 33% 將有助於提高我們的利潤率，特別是幫助我們在該項目上的盈利能力提高 25% 至 30% 左右。

Okay. So the incremental margin you're saying it would be 25% to 30%. Okay.

好的。因此，您所說的增量利潤率將是 25% 到 30%。好的。

Yes. Yes.

是的。是的。

And the other question, just probably a minor one, but the tax rate of 17% this quarter seemed high to me and the deferred tax valuation was higher -- running a little higher than it runs some last year. So can you just explain what's going on between the deferred tax asset valuation and the tax benefits you got this quarter?

另一個問題，可能只是一個小問題，但本季度 17% 的稅率對我來說似乎很高，遞延稅估值更高——比去年高一點。那麼，您能否解釋一下遞延所得稅資產估值與您本季度獲得的稅收優惠之間發生了什麼？

Sure, George. The nuances of tax get a little complicated, but let me just try to walk you through that. When we look at our tax rate, the old tax rules where you looked at your actual performance in the quarter and you recorded your tax rate based on that. We have to look at our tax rate -- our effective tax rate based on a full year expectation of earnings. And so if we're in a situation, and this is just, call it an example, if you lose money in the first quarter, but make money in the back half of the year, we have to then smooth out the overall earnings, the pretax income over the course of the year, and that can drive some real significant variation as it relates to what you actually book from a tax standpoint compared to what your true pretax income is.

當然，喬治。稅收的細微差別有點複雜，但讓我試著帶你了解一下。當我們查看我們的稅率時，您會查看您在本季度的實際表現並據此記錄您的稅率的舊稅收規則。我們必須看看我們的稅率——基於全年預期收益的有效稅率。因此，如果我們處於一種情況，這只是，舉個例子，如果你在第一季度虧損，但在下半年賺錢，那麼我們必須平滑整體收益，一年中的稅前收入，這可能會導致一些真正的重大變化，因為它與您從稅收角度實際預訂的內容與您的真實稅前收入相比。

So although it looks abnormal, I understand why you're asking that. The new rules expect -- force us to kind of look at it over the course of the year and then normalize the tax rate on a quarterly basis. And so as we move through the course of the year and our earnings start to recover as we generate more revenue, you'll see that normalized tax rate, excluding the tax valuation reserve to make more sense to you.

所以雖然看起來很不正常，但我明白你為什麼這麼問。新規則預計 - 迫使我們在一年中審視它，然後按季度正常化稅率。因此，隨著我們度過這一年，隨著我們產生更多收入，我們的收益開始恢復，您會看到正常化的稅率，不包括對您更有意義的稅收估值準備金。

Our next question comes from Kristine Liwag from Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Kristine Liwag。

Following up on the 737 negative cumulative catch-up, I mean, should we think about that $26 million over the 200 airplanes in the accounting block? Because if we take that per unit, it sounds like it's about 2% margin headwind for the 737. Is that how we should think about it? Or is there something else we should consider?

我的意思是，在 737 負累積追趕之後，我們是否應該考慮會計部門中 200 架飛機中的 2600 萬美元？因為如果我們按單位計算，聽起來這對 737 來說大約是 2% 的利潤逆風。我們應該這樣想嗎？或者還有什麼我們應該考慮的？

Let me jump in here, Kristine, and then Tom may want to add to that. Really what happened here, that unfavorable cum catch-up is related to our accounting contract that just closed at the end of the first quarter. And as you -- as we are building and establishing our production system to support 31 aircraft per month, there were costs that we incurred in the first quarter. Supply chain disruption costs, some dual sourcing, some costs incurred from an inventory standpoint to protect ourselves so that we can seamlessly take that rate increase from 21 to 31. And that added -- at least half of those costs were supply chain disruptive -- disruption type costs that ended up in the block and caused the pressure in the accounting contract that just closed.

讓我跳到這裡，克里斯汀，然後湯姆可能想補充一下。真的在這裡發生的事情，不利的暨追趕與我們剛剛在第一季度末結束的會計合同有關。正如你——當我們正在建立和建立我們的生產系統以支持每月 31 架飛機時，我們在第一季度產生了成本。供應鏈中斷成本，一些雙重採購，從庫存的角度來看，為了保護我們自己而產生的一些成本，這樣我們就可以無縫地將費率從 21 提高到 31。而且，這些成本中至少有一半是供應鏈中斷的——中斷類型的成本最終出現在區塊中，並對剛剛結束的會計合同造成壓力。

Now as we move forward here and we're at the higher rate, we've worked through some of those supplier disruptions. It doesn't mean that our supplier -- supply chain is in perfect health, but those were costs that we incurred in the first quarter to protect the production system. And then as we move forward into our current accounting contract, which we're delivering now, we should see that supply chain disruption costs mitigate or minimize as we move forward at the higher rate.

現在，隨著我們在這裡前進並且我們處於更高的速度，我們已經解決了一些供應商中斷問題。這並不意味著我們的供應商——供應鏈處於完美的健康狀態，而是我們在第一季度為保護生產系統而產生的成本。然後，當我們進入我們現在正在交付的當前會計合同時，我們應該看到隨著我們以更高的速度前進，供應鏈中斷成本會減輕或最小化。

So it's really contained on our previous accounting contract, and I wouldn't expect a significant amount of that to recur. And it's our job to kind of manage through those challenges and protect our profitability. So again, it was protect the production system, protect our production rate. If we don't do that well, that would cost us a lot more than the $26 million.

所以它確實包含在我們之前的會計合同中，我預計不會再發生大量此類情況。我們的工作是應對這些挑戰並保護我們的盈利能力。再說一遍，這是保護生產系統，保護我們的生產率。如果我們做得不好，那將比 2600 萬美元多得多。

Yes, that's really helpful. And if I could follow up on the MAX production rate. Last quarter, you guys talked about producing at a 5 shipset rate less than Boeing to allow inventory burn off. Can you help us understand what's changed? And why 31 per month is now the 2022 production rate? I would have thought it'd just be a little lower.

是的，這真的很有幫助。如果我能跟進 MAX 生產率。上個季度，你們談到了以比波音低 5 艘船的速度生產，以使庫存消耗殆盡。你能幫助我們了解發生了什麼變化嗎？為什麼現在每月 31 個是 2022 年的生產率？我本來以為會低一點。

Right. Well, this has been in the plans for a while. And I think Boeing wants to make sure that its supply chain is stable, and it has already given us the signal. So we have gone up to the 31 as planned. They're staying at 31 now. And so we're going to be at the same rate for longer. So it means that the buffer will get burned out.

對。好吧，這已經計劃了一段時間了。而且我認為波音希望確保其供應鏈穩定，並且已經向我們發出了信號。所以我們按計劃升到了31。他們現在31歲。因此，我們將在更長的時間內保持相同的速度。所以這意味著緩衝區將被燒毀。

But the good news is that we have the agility to manage those trade-offs in order to preserve the production chain health. And so that's what Boeing has decided to do and we're matching it. But that's what happened is we've been planning for this break to 31 for a while. And Boeing has asked us to continue to do it, even though they're going to stay at 31 as well to protect the overall supply chain.

但好消息是，我們能夠靈活地管理這些權衡，以保持生產鏈的健康。這就是波音公司決定做的事情，我們正在與之匹配。但這就是發生的事情，我們一直在計劃將這個休息時間改為 31 歲。波音要求我們繼續這樣做，即使他們也將保持在 31 歲以保護整個供應鏈。

And just, I guess, for the free cash flow lower guide for the year, is that factoring in just a lower burn off of your inventory then?

而且，我想，對於今年的自由現金流量較低的指南，這是否只是考慮到您的庫存消耗較低？

No. No, Kristine. If you're talking specifically on 737, we were expecting a tick up in production rates in the fourth quarter. In our current schedules and our current expectations, we don't see that happening. And so as a result of that, there'll be lower revenue and earnings on the 737 program, which is going to cause lower cash flow than we previously expected.

不，不，克里斯汀。如果您專門談論 737，我們預計第四季度的生產率會有所提高。在我們目前的時間表和我們目前的期望中，我們沒有看到這種情況發生。因此，737 計劃的收入和收益將會下降，這將導致現金流低於我們之前的預期。

Now on the positive side is we're going to be staying at 31 for a longer period of time. We're going to drive a lot of stability and continue to work on our production system improvements. And I think we're going to see a lot of benefits as it relates to stabilizing at 31 a month, helping our suppliers stabilize at 31 a month before we aggressively go back up in rate. So I think near term, it's a little less revenue, a little less earnings and cash. But I think over the long term -- and we got to think about our business long term. We're a long-cycle business, right?

現在積極的一面是我們將在更長的時間內保持在 31 歲。我們將提高穩定性，並繼續致力於我們的生產系統改進。我認為我們將看到很多好處，因為它與穩定在每月 31 點有關，幫助我們的供應商在我們積極回升之前穩定在每月 31 點。所以我認為短期內，收入會少一點，收入和現金也會少一點。但我從長遠來看——我們必須從長遠考慮我們的業務。我們是一個長周期的企業，對吧？

I think over the course of the next 18 to 24 months, this is going to be positive for Spirit and for our suppliers as well as Boeing that we stabilized the production system. We get on a steady drumbeat, right? And that higher rate is good for us. We're going to generate more revenue and earnings. We'll drive the stability, we'll work with our supply chain and I think that will better prepare us for the next rate break when it comes.

我認為在接下來的 18 到 24 個月的過程中，這對 Spirit 和我們的供應商以及波音公司來說都是積極的，因為我們穩定了生產系統。我們打著穩定的鼓聲，對吧？更高的利率對我們有好處。我們將產生更多的收入和收益。我們將推動穩定，我們將與我們的供應鏈合作，我認為這將使我們更好地為下一次降息做好準備。

Our next question comes from Myles Walton from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的邁爾斯沃爾頓。

I just wanted to put a little bow on the 737 production rate dynamic. Is it fair to think that you were previously assuming Boeing is going to liquidate previously booked revenue 737 MAXs and you're previously assuming that there was going to be another rate hike in the back half of the year. So presumably, you were thinking Boeing is going to get to a rate above 40 before the end of the year. And now basically, they're going to stay at rate 31 and you're not going to liquidate inventory. Is that the short of it?

我只是想對 737 的生產率動態稍作介紹。認為您之前假設波音將清算之前預訂收入的 737 MAX 並且您之前假設今年下半年將再次加息是否公平。所以大概，你認為波音將在今年年底前達到 40 以上的速度。現在基本上，他們將保持在 31 的利率，而你不會清算庫存。這是短板嗎？

Well, first of all, it's not our inventory because we've already delivered those units to Boeing, and we're just storing them here in Wichita. But just to answer your question is, yes, we did expect a rate increase in the fourth quarter, as Mark said, and we don't expect that now. And so that's the major difference.

嗯，首先，這不是我們的庫存，因為我們已經將這些設備交付給波音，我們只是將它們存放在威奇托。但只是為了回答你的問題，是的，正如馬克所說，我們確實預計第四季度會加息，但我們現在不認為會出現這種情況。這就是主要的區別。

And you were expecting to liquidate the units you had booked revenue against that were sitting in Wichita.

而且您期望清算位於威奇託的已預訂收入的單位。

Correct. We expected that to burn off, and now it's going to be a slower burn off.

正確的。我們預計會燒掉，現在燒掉的速度會更慢。

We expected higher and we expected to burn off. At the end of the day, we really can't opine on Boeing's production system. Right now, the systems are pretty disconnected. What Boeing delivers, what we produce, what we're really focused on is what is our requirements, what do we deliver from. And at the end of the day, Boeing will deal with their production and they'll deal with their deliveries. And I think there's a lot of challenges here.

我們預計會更高，我們預計會燒掉。歸根結底，我們真的無法對波音的生產系統發表意見。目前，這些系統非常斷開連接。波音提供什麼，我們生產什麼，我們真正關注的是我們的要求，我們提供什麼。歸根結底，波音公司將處理他們的生產，他們將處理他們的交付。我認為這裡有很多挑戰。

So as it relates to what they produce and what's their new production, what do they deliver out of stored aircraft, that's really kind of something Boeing has to address. We know what our obligations are and what our requirements, and we're trying to give you best color as we can over -- what we see over the next 7 to 8 months.

因此，當它涉及到他們生產什麼以及他們的新產品是什麼，他們從存儲的飛機中交付什麼，這確實是波音必須解決的問題。我們知道我們的義務是什麼以及我們的要求是什麼，並且我們正在努力為您提供最好的顏色——我們在接下來的 7 到 8 個月內看到的內容。

Got it. And now that you're above 31, should we expect excess costs to be de minimis? How much of the excess cost is specifically of the 37 and is everything above 31 no longer excess?

知道了。既然你已經 31 歲以上，我們是否應該期望超額成本是微不足道的？ 37 的超額成本有多少，31 以上的所有東西都不再超額了嗎？

No. We'll still continue to see that. I think in 2020, we incurred about $280 million as XX costs. In 2021, it was around $210 million to $220 million. I would expect it to be 40% to 50% lower here in 2022 because of that rate increase.

不，我們仍將繼續看到這一點。我認為在 2020 年，我們產生了大約 2.8 億美元的 XX 成本。 2021年約為2.1億至2.2億美元。由於利率的提高，我預計到 2022 年它會降低 40% 到 50%。

Yes. But Mark, the excess costs will continue until we get back to 52.

是的。但是馬克，超額成本將持續到我們回到 52。

Right. It will go down again. We'll still have some excess costs in 2023. But we're expecting it -- if we go up in rate, it will go down again in '23.

對。它會再次下降。到 2023 年，我們仍然會有一些超額成本。但我們期待它——如果我們提高利率，它會在 23 年再次下降。

our next question comes from Cai von Rumohr from Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Cai von Rumohr。

Yes. So you gave us your rate plan for the year for those 2 Boeing programs. What about the A320 and the A350, because you seem to be going pretty hot on the A320 in the first quarter?

是的。因此，您向我們提供了這 2 個波音項目的年度費率計劃。 A320 和 A350 怎麼樣，因為您在第一季度似乎對 A320 很感興趣？

Yes. Well, on the A320, Cai, as you saw from our results, we delivered 155. So we're -- right now, we're probably at about 55, and we're planning to go to the 65 by middle of 2023. But if you just look at a total number, we're expecting just over 600 on the A320. And on the A350, we're expecting about 50 units. So it will be average a little bit over 4 -- between 4 and 5 for the year.

是的。好吧，在 A320 上，蔡，正如你從我們的結果中看到的那樣，我們交付了 155 個。所以我們 - 現在，我們可能在 55 個左右，我們計劃到 2023 年年中達到 65 個. 但是，如果您只看總數，我們預計 A320 將超過 600 架。在 A350 上，我們預計大約有 50 個單位。因此，今年的平均水平將略高於 4 - 4 到 5 之間。

Very helpful. And then, Mark, you mentioned prepaid U.K. royalty $291 million. I assume that's happening below the line because the Boeing Advances are above the line. And what is the interest rate savings you're going to have on that retirement?

很有幫助。然後，馬克，你提到了預付了 2.91 億美元的英國特許權使用費。我認為這發生在該線以下，因為波音 Advances 位於該線之上。退休後您將節省多少利率？

You're correct, Cai. It's -- the majority of the $291 million, the majority of it will end up flowing through our free cash flow statement in the financing section because it's a debt-like liability. And we talked about this the fourth -- in the fall last year, we increased our term loan by about $200 million at a base interest rate of about 3.75%. And I think we had told you guys that we were paying -- when Bombardier did this deal, it was cut at a 7% to 8% interest rate.

你是對的，蔡。這是 - 2.91 億美元中的大部分，其中大部分最終將流經我們在融資部分的自由現金流量表，因為它是一種類似債務的負債。我們第四次談到了這一點——去年秋天，我們以約 3.75% 的基本利率將定期貸款增加了約 2 億美元。而且我想我們已經告訴你們我們正在支付 - 當龐巴迪完成這筆交易時，它被削減了 7% 到 8% 的利率。

So effectively, we used $200 million of the term loan or $100 million of cash off our balance sheet with the cash balance we have. And we're going from the $200 million from 8% to under 4%, and we expect to see roughly a little more than a $20 million benefit in cash interest expense on a go-forward basis.

如此有效地，我們使用了我們擁有的現金餘額中的 2 億美元定期貸款或資產負債表上的 1 億美元現金。我們將從 2 億美元的 8% 降至 4% 以下，我們預計未來現金利息支出將獲得大約 2000 萬美元的收益。

Excellent. And the last one is when you look at where you're likely to be in terms of 737 in the second quarter, I mean, as I look at my model, it looks like pretty much all of the Q-to-Q increase first quarter to second quarter in revenues is the 737. So should we assume you get a big margin step-up in the second quarter? Or you still have gate-up costs from going to 31 so that it's not going to be as big? How should we think about that step up?

優秀的。最後一個是當您查看第二季度可能達到的 737 時，我的意思是，當我查看我的模型時，看起來幾乎所有 Q-to-Q 增長首先到第二季度的收入是 737。那麼我們是否應該假設您在第二季度獲得大幅提升？或者你仍然有從 31 到 31 的入門成本，所以它不會那麼大？我們應該如何看待這一步？

Well, as I said, we're now at -- delivering at 31 here in the month of May. So if you think about it, April, we were still at 21 a month. May and June will be at 31 a month. So we're not going to see the full incremental benefit of producing at 31 a month in the second quarter. I think you'll see -- still a little bit of trailing costs as it relates to breaking to that rate that we incurred in the month of April.

好吧，正如我所說，我們現在在 - 5 月份的 31 點交付。因此，如果您考慮一下，四月，我們仍然是每月 21 歲。 5 月和 6 月將是每月 31 日。因此，我們不會在第二季度看到每月 31 台生產的全部增量收益。我想你會看到 - 仍然有一點跟踪成本，因為它與打破我們在 4 月份發生的利率有關。

So you're going to see a nice tick up in revenue. You're going to see a tick up in earnings, and we'll -- and cash flow follows after that. I think really, you would want to measure us on when we get to the third quarter, at that point in time, we'll be fully delivering full up at 31 aircraft per month. We'll get the peak revenue in that quarter. And I'm really expecting revenue and earnings to be meaningfully improved, and we'll start to really see the benefits of those production rates flow through cash flow.

因此，您將看到收入的大幅增長。你會看到收益上升，我們會看到——然後現金流隨之而來。我認為真的，你會想在我們到第三季度的時候衡量我們，到那個時候，我們將以每月 31 架飛機的速度完全交付。我們將在該季度獲得最高收入。而且我真的希望收入和收益會得到顯著改善，我們將開始真正看到這些生產率的好處通過現金流流動。

Our next question comes from Ronald Epstein from Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ronald Epstein。

Yes. It seems like 73 has been sort of beaten to death there. So maybe let's change topics a little bit. So Tom, with -- what's going on in Defense markets today? Do you expect kind of more flow through your Defense business than you were previously anticipating maybe 6 to 9 months ago?

是的。好像73在那裡被打死了。所以也許讓我們稍微改變一下話題。那麼湯姆，今天國防市場發生了什麼？您是否預計國防業務的流量會比您在 6 到 9 個月前預期的要多？

Well, there's certainly been a pickup in activity and the Defense budget has gone up to reflect some of the new requirements for what's going on in Ukraine, but just more broadly. What we have seen is a lot of activity in terms of bids and proposals. As we mentioned earlier, back in 2016, we only had 4 programs that were over $1 million and now we have over 30 such programs. So that's what's happening.

好吧，活動肯定有所回升，國防預算已經上升，以反映對烏克蘭正在發生的事情的一些新要求，但范圍更廣。我們所看到的是在投標和建議方面的大量活動。正如我們之前提到的，早在 2016 年，我們只有 4 個超過 100 萬美元的項目，而現在我們有 30 多個這樣的項目。所以這就是正在發生的事情。

And as I've said before, we have a lot of capacity that used to be for wide-body for composite fabrication. So things like automated fiber placement machines, autoclaves, trim and drill, nondestructive inspecting, that kind of heavy capital equipment that we're able to repurpose to Defense and we're able to offer that immediately to the Defense primes, and that's helped us win some new programs.

正如我之前所說，我們有很多過去用於復合材料製造的寬體能力。因此，諸如自動纖維鋪放機、高壓滅菌器、修整和鑽孔、無損檢測之類的重型資本設備，我們能夠重新用於國防，我們能夠立即將其提供給國防總理，這對我們有幫助贏得一些新節目。

So we do expect, as I mentioned in my comments, we have a very solid pipeline. We've won some programs and those are classified programs that are in the development phase. But as those get through development phase and into production, that should drive continued Defense growth. So we're very optimistic about the Defense opportunity in the key areas that we're focusing on. So of course, next-generation aircraft but also missiles and hypersonics. And we have a very strong capability in hypersonics with our new FMI Group out in Maine, which makes the 3D carbon, carbon that's used on the high-temperature surfaces.

所以我們確實希望，正如我在評論中提到的，我們有一個非常穩固的管道。我們贏得了一些項目，這些項目是處於開發階段的分類項目。但隨著這些產品通過開發階段並投入生產，這應該會推動國防業務的持續增長。因此，我們對我們關注的關鍵領域的防禦機會非常樂觀。當然，下一代飛機還有導彈和高超音速飛機。我們在緬因州的新 FMI 集團擁有非常強大的高超音速能力，該集團製造 3D 碳，用於高溫表面的碳。

And then we're also looking at things like attributable drones, which should be a big part of the force of the future and then Space. All of these areas are heavily focused on structures and that's really where our expertise is. So we're very bullish on the Defense & Space market outlook.

然後我們也在研究諸如歸屬無人機之類的東西，這應該是未來力量的重要組成部分，然後是太空。所有這些領域都非常關注結構，而這正是我們的專長所在。因此，我們非常看好國防和航天市場的前景。

Got you. Got you. Got you. And then maybe changing gears to business aviation and what you've got going on in Belfast. Given what's going on in that end market, is Belfast doing better than you would have anticipated given demand for large cabin business jet?

得到你。得到你。得到你。然後可能會轉向公務航空以及您在貝爾法斯特發生的事情。鑑於該終端市場的情況，考慮到對大型客艙公務機的需求，貝爾法斯特的表現是否比您預期的要好？

Let me ask Sam to address business jet. She oversees that.

讓我請山姆向公務機講話。她負責監督。

Thanks, Tom. So we're seeing a lot of -- from the growth side of things, we're seeing a lot of opportunities coming up for us to look at and to bid on. So that side of the business is staying pretty much, pretty stable in terms of rates and production. What I would say is that the opportunity pipeline has certainly increased. And second, kind of related to that market, we talked a little bit about the eVTOL emerging market, particularly on the technical consulting side of things, the engineering services side of the business that certainly started to pick up as well. So what I would say at this point is it's kind of holding its own on the business jet side of it. There's a lot of opportunities and work that we're chasing.

謝謝，湯姆。因此，我們看到了很多 - 從事物的增長方面，我們看到了很多機會供我們關注和競標。因此，業務的這一方面在費率和產量方面保持相當穩定。我想說的是，機會管道肯定增加了。其次，與該市場有關，我們談到了 eVTOL 新興市場，特別是在技術諮詢方面，業務的工程服務方面當然也開始回升。所以我現在要說的是，它在公務機方面擁有自己的優勢。我們正在追逐很多機會和工作。

And we do have a couple of new business jet programs.

我們確實有幾個新的公務機項目。

Yet to be announced. Yes.

尚待公佈。是的。

Well, one was the Falcon 10X from Dassault.

嗯，其中之一是達索的獵鷹 10X。

Falcon 10X. Yes.

獵鷹 10X。是的。

Our next question comes from Noah Poponak from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Noah Poponak。

On the MAX, had Boeing given you the next rate break, it's timing and size and then reverse that on you? Or were you making your best assumption and having to manage your business?

在 MAX 上，波音是否給了你下一次降息，時間和規模，然後反過來給你？或者您是否做出了最好的假設並且必須管理您的業務？

It's more of the latter, Noah. As we've said, we are always working on rate scenarios and those change based on circumstances. So the schedules that we currently have right now with Boeing is we're going to stay at 31 for the rest of the year. Previously, we had expected a rate increase in the fourth quarter, but we don't expect that right now. And so again, we're always working on different scenarios, but we have to be agile. This is a very challenging time right now, very dynamic and so we're going to be flexible.

更多的是後者，諾亞。正如我們所說，我們一直在研究利率情景，這些情景會根據情況而變化。因此，我們目前與波音公司的時間表是，我們將在今年剩下的時間裡保持在 31 歲。此前，我們曾預計第四季度會加息，但我們現在預計不會出現這種情況。同樣，我們一直在處理不同的場景，但我們必須保持敏捷。現在這是一個非常具有挑戰性的時期，非常有活力，所以我們將變得靈活。

Yes. Noah, I would just say, we get kind of a skyline update from, call it, Boeing and Airbus routinely. And with all the challenges in the marketplace as it relates to COVID and now Russia-Ukraine, we're seeing more skyline adjustments than we've ever seen before. And so you get a skyline, which kind of gives you an indication of where you think things are going, right? But at the end of the day, it's got to be the formal purchase order, right, that comes through.

是的。諾亞，我只想說，我們經常從波音和空中客車那裡得到一種天際線更新。面對與 COVID 和現在的俄羅斯-烏克蘭相關的市場挑戰，我們看到的天際線調整比以往任何時候都多。所以你得到了一個天際線，它可以告訴你你認為事情的發展方向，對嗎？但歸根結底，必須是正式的採購訂單，對，是通過的。

And so I think we're coming on the back end of COVID. We're seeing a lot of recovery on the airline side of things and seeing more stability, but there's still a lot of uncertainty, right? I mean Boeing is delivering out of their storage. They got the issue on the 787. So I think we still have some uncertainty. I think it's clear on the Airbus side where they want to go. But those skylines adjust and change, and then we have to adapt to the purchase commitments that are flowed down to us.

所以我認為我們正處於 COVID 的後端。我們在航空公司方面看到了很多複蘇，並且看到了更多的穩定性，但仍然存在很多不確定性，對吧？我的意思是波音正在交付他們的倉庫。他們在 787 上遇到了問題。所以我認為我們仍然存在一些不確定性。我認為空中客車方面很清楚他們想去哪裡。但是那些天際線會調整和變化，然後我們必須適應流向我們的購買承諾。

And we wanted to give you clarity in terms of what we see now for the rest of this year, now that we're into May. And on the MAX, that's why we said right now, our plan is 315 units.

我們希望讓您清楚地了解我們現在在今年剩下的時間裡看到的情況，現在我們已經進入了 5 月。在 MAX 上，這就是我們現在說的原因，我們的計劃是 315 台。

Yes. Okay. That all makes a lot of sense, and it's helpful. There's a lot of focus on when China will resume deliveries on the MAX. And it almost seems like, to your point, Mark, there's their size as a percentage of the total MAX backlog, but then there's also just the issue of they're in the skyline. So even if there are enough aggregate customers to have a certain production rate, there's so much skyline movement that has to happen. You can't take it to a higher rate. Is that a fair take that, that's almost a bigger challenge in the near term than just the size of the customer?

是的。好的。這一切都很有意義，而且很有幫助。中國何時恢復 MAX 的交付備受關注。馬克，就你的觀點而言，它們的大小似乎佔總 MAX 積壓的百分比，但也只是它們在天際線中的問題。因此，即使有足夠多的總客戶來獲得一定的生產率，也必鬚髮生如此多的天際線運動。你不能把它提高到更高的速度。這是公平的嗎，在短期內這幾乎是一個比客戶規模更大的挑戰？

I don't know. I don't have that deep knowledge of how Boeing manages their skyline and how they move slots and how they work with the airline customers. I think that's more of a question for them. I've not worked at an OEM. So I'm not quite sure how they manage it. But obviously, there's a lot going on right now. And I think we're trying to do the best we can to support our customer. 37 is important to us, 37 is really important to Boeing and we're trying to stay lockstep and make sure that we deliver on time and support their -- support them as they deliver to airline customers.

我不知道。我對波音公司如何管理他們的天際線、他們如何移動插槽以及他們如何與航空公司客戶合作沒有那麼深入的了解。我認為這對他們來說更像是一個問題。我沒有在 OEM 工作過。所以我不太確定他們是如何管理的。但顯然，現在發生了很多事情。我認為我們正在盡最大努力支持我們的客戶。 37 對我們很重要，37 對波音來說非常重要，我們正努力保持同步，確保我們按時交付並支持他們——在他們向航空公司客戶交付時支持他們。

I could see the answer here also being -- it's a better question for Boeing, but just good to get mosaic of opinions and it's a big part of your business. Does anyone anywhere in the system have any visibility on why and when China resumes deliveries of the MAX?

我也可以在這裡看到答案——這對波音來說是一個更好的問題，但很好地獲得各種意見，這是你業務的重要組成部分。系統中的任何地方是否有人了解中國為何以及何時恢復 MAX 的交付？

I would say, from our standpoint, we do not. We depend on what we hear from our customers, Boeing and Airbus and also what we read. But it's obviously a very complex situation with a lot of different dynamics. And so we don't have any clarity on that, no.

我想說，從我們的角度來看，我們沒有。我們依賴於我們從客戶波音和空客那裡聽到的信息以及我們閱讀的內容。但這顯然是一個非常複雜的情況，有很多不同的動態。因此，我們對此沒有任何明確性，不。

Our last question comes from Michael Ciarmoli from Truist Securities.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Michael Ciarmoli。

Just I guess, Mark, just on the excess capacity costs, what specifically drove the $5 million sequential increase from the fourth quarter? And I guess, now with the MAX at 31 for the full year and the 787, where it is, I mean, looking into '23, I mean, if you're going to cut excess costs by, call it, 50%, I mean, it still seems like there's going to be a pretty big drag into '23, given your lead times on brakes. I mean should we kind of just calibrate ourselves for some residual excess costs in the $40 million to $50 million range in kind of '23?

只是我猜，馬克，就過剩產能成本而言，是什麼特別推動了第四季度 500 萬美元的連續增長？我猜，現在 MAX 全年為 31，而 787，我的意思是，展望 23 年，我的意思是，如果你要削減超額成本，稱之為 50%，我的意思是，考慮到您的剎車提前期，到 23 年似乎仍然會有很大的拖累。我的意思是，我們是否應該針對 23 年的 4000 萬美元到 5000 萬美元範圍內的一些剩餘超額成本進行校準？

Yes, I mean if you -- if we -- what I said it was around $210 million, $220 million in '21. We're breaking to 31, and that's going to help reduce that to, call it, cut in half to $110 million, $120 million. With that [peg], a rate of 52 aircraft per month, if we go back up in rate, you'll see another tick down. The higher we go up, the bigger benefit we see from an excess standpoint. And so you really didn't see a big drop first quarter compared to fourth quarter because we weren't delivering at 31 a month. You'll see that a nice tick down in excess costs in the second quarter as we start to deliver at the higher rate.

是的，我的意思是如果你——如果我們——我所說的大約是 2.1 億美元，21 年是 2.2 億美元。我們將突破到 31 家，這將有助於將其減少到，稱之為，減半至 1.1 億美元，1.2 億美元。有了這個 [掛鉤]，每月 52 架飛機的速度，如果我們恢復速度，你會看到另一個下降。我們升得越高，從過度的角度來看，我們看到的好處就越大。所以你真的沒有看到第一季度與第四季度相比有很大的下降，因為我們沒有以每月 31 次交付。隨著我們開始以更高的速度交付，您會看到第二季度的超額成本大幅下降。

Yes. But I would say the reason it went up $5 million is very simple. There were some costs during the first quarter to get ready for the rate increase. So that contributed to it. And also there was a small adjustment on the MC-21 that I mentioned. And so those were the 2 factors that drove it from what was $45 million in Q4 to basically $50 million in Q1.

是的。但我想說它上漲 500 萬美元的原因很簡單。第一季度有一些成本為加息做準備。所以這促成了它。我提到的 MC-21 也有一個小的調整。因此，這兩個因素將其從第四季度的 4500 萬美元推高到第一季度的基本 5000 萬美元。

Got it. Got it. But even still, I mean, if the MAX goes up to 42, 47, if I look at your narrow-bodies getting to rate, I mean, it seems like the wide-bodies are still going to be under pressure. So that's going to be some residual costs -- excess costs regardless, even if we get 87 back to 5 and A350 at 6 and 777 where it is, it still seems like you're going to have that wide-body drag, correct?

知道了。知道了。但即便如此，我的意思是，如果 MAX 上升到 42、47，如果我看看你的窄體機正在評分，我的意思是，寬體機似乎仍然會承受壓力。所以這將是一些剩餘成本——不管怎樣，超額成本，即使我們讓 87 回到 5，A350 回到 6 和 777，看起來你仍然會有那種寬體阻力，對嗎？

Well, Michael, there are specific accounting rules around how we treat excess costs, but the wide-body lower production rates, those costs today, there is not a separate excess cost calculation for the twin aisles. Those are embedded in the profit rates that we have today. But lower production on our twin-aisle programs obviously puts pressure on our twin-aisle margins. And in some instances, on a large site like Wichita, can have negative impact across the board. So there's definitely a headwind as it relates to those lower production rates.

好吧，邁克爾，關於我們如何處理超額成本有特定的會計規則，但是寬體較低的生產率，今天的這些成本，沒有單獨的雙通道超額成本計算。這些都包含在我們今天的利潤率中。但我們雙通道項目的低產量顯然對我們的雙通道利潤率造成了壓力。在某些情況下，在像威奇托這樣的大型網站上，可能會產生全面的負面影響。因此，與那些較低的生產率有關，肯定存在不利因素。

At this time, there are no further questions. And our conference call has now concluded. I would like to thank everybody for joining today's call. You may now disconnect your lines.

此時，沒有進一步的問題。我們的電話會議現已結束。我要感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。您現在可以斷開線路。