Spirit AeroSystems Holdings Inc (SPR) 2021 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome, ladies and gentlemen, to the Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. Second Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Grant, and I'll be your coordinator today. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded. I'd now like to turn the presentation over to Aaron Hunt, director of Investor Relations. Please proceed.

早安，女士們、先生們，歡迎參加 Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. 2021 年第二季財報電話會議。我叫格蘭特，今天我將擔任你們的協調員。 （操作員說明）請注意此事件正在被記錄。我現在想把演講交給投資者關係總監亞倫·亨特 (Aaron Hunt)。請繼續。

Thank you, Grant, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Spirit's Second Quarter 2021 Earnings Call. I'm Aaron Hunt, Director of Investor Relations. And with me today are Spirit's President and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Gentile; Spirit's Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Mark Suchinski, and Spirit's Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, Sam Marnick. After opening comments by Tom, Sam and Mark regarding our performance and outlook, we will take your questions.

謝謝你，格蘭特，大家早安。歡迎參加 Spirit 2021 年第二季財報電話會議。我是投資者關係總監亞倫·亨特。今天和我在一起的還有 Spirit 的總裁兼執行長 Tom Gentile； Spirit 資深副總裁兼財務長； Mark Suchinski 和 Spirit 執行副總裁兼營運長 Sam Marnick。在 Tom、Sam 和 Mark 對我們的業績和前景發表評論後，我們將回答您的問題。

Before we begin, I need to remind you that any projections or goals we may include in our discussion today are likely to involve risks, which are detailed in our earnings release, in our SEC filings and in the forward-looking statement at the end of this web presentation. In addition, we refer you to our earnings release and presentation for disclosures and reconciliation of non-GAAP measures we use when discussing our results. And as a reminder, you can follow today's broadcast and slide presentation on our website at investor.spiritaero.com.

在我們開始之前，我需要提醒您，我們今天討論中可能包含的任何預測或目標都可能涉及風險，這些風險在我們的收益發布、美國證券交易委員會文件以及年底的前瞻性聲明中進行了詳細說明。這個網路示範。此外，我們建議您參閱我們的收益發布和演示文稿，以了解我們在討論結果時使用的非公認會計準則衡量標準的揭露和調節。提醒一下，您可以在我們的網站 Investor.spiritaero.com 上關註今天的廣播和幻燈片演示。

With that, I would like to turn the call over to our Chief Executive Officer, Tom Gentile.

說到這裡，我想將電話轉給我們的執行長 Tom Gentile。

Thank you, Aaron, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Spirit's Second Quarter Earnings Call. We are pleased to see signs of recovery in global air traffic. The U.S. air travel recovery has been strong and has come back faster than some expected. TSA traveler throughput has exceeded 2 million passengers on multiple days during the past 2 months and some days in July where passenger screenings exceeded the 2019 levels. A recent International Air Transport Association report indicates domestic passenger market show improvement, but with demand still down 22% versus June 2019 levels.

謝謝你，亞倫，大家早安。歡迎參加 Spirit 第二季財報電話會議。我們很高興看到全球空中交通復甦的跡象。美國航空旅行復甦強勁，且恢復速度比一些人預期的要快。在過去 2 個月內，多日 TSA 旅客吞吐量超過 200 萬人次，7 月的某些日子旅客安檢量超過 2019 年水準。國際航空運輸協會最近的一份報告顯示，國內客運市場有所改善，但需求仍較 2019 年 6 月的水準下降 22%。

The situation remains dynamic. We are monitoring the most recent reports of a spike of COVID-19 cases and what impact this may have on air traffic recovery. However, the upward momentum of domestic air traffic over the past few months is an encouraging trend for our industry. We are pleased to see the rebound of demand for the MAX and the news of large orders from United, Southwest, Alaska Air and Ryanair. Ryanair took delivery of its first 737 MAX 8200 and had positive feedback. With 85% of Spirit's backlog associated with narrow-body aircraft, we believe we are well positioned to benefit from this domestic air traffic demand and narrow-body recovery.

局勢仍然動態。我們正在監測有關 COVID-19 病例激增的最新報告以及這可能對空中交通恢復產生的影響。然而，過去幾個月國內航空運輸量的上升勢頭對我們行業來說是一個令人鼓舞的趨勢。我們很高興看到 MAX 需求的反彈以及來自聯合航空、西南航空、阿拉斯加航空和瑞安航空的大訂單的消息。瑞安航空接收了第一架 737 MAX 8200，並獲得了正面的回饋。由於精神航空 85% 的積壓訂單與窄體飛機相關，我們相信我們處於有利位置，能夠從國內空中交通需求和窄體飛機復甦中受益。

In the first half of this year, we delivered 64 737 shipsets compared to 37 in the first half of last year, a 73% increase. We are also on track to deliver about 160 shipsets this year, a 125% increase over the 71 we delivered in 2020. As we have discussed before, we are trailing Boeing in terms of 737 production rate to burn off the inventory of storage shipsets in Wichita and Tulsa.

今年上半年，我們交付船舶64,737艘，比去年上半年的37艘成長73%。我們今年還有望交付約 160 架飛機，比 2020 年交付的 71 架增加 125%。正如我們之前討論過的，我們在 737 生產率方面落後於波音，以消耗 2020 年儲存船組的庫存。威奇托和塔爾薩。

This quarter, for example, we delivered 35 units but shipped 42 to Boeing. We currently have about 125 units in storage, all of which Boeing owns. We expect store units will decrease to about 100 shipsets by the end of the year. Our plan is that we will reach 20 stored units by the end of next year, which will remain as a permanent buffer to cushion the production system.

例如，本季我們交付了 35 台，但向波音公司運送了 42 台。目前，我們庫存了約 125 架飛機，全部由波音公司擁有。我們預計到年底商店數量將減少至 100 艘左右。我們的計劃是，到明年年底，我們的儲存量將達到 20 個，這將作為永久緩衝區，為生產系統提供緩衝。

Turning to the 787 program. As a result of our ongoing engagement with Boeing, we identified an additional fit and finish issue in the forward section of the fuselage. This issue is related to a part that Spirit receives from one of our Tier 2 suppliers, and we are working with Boeing and the supplier on a resolution. We continue to coordinate with Boeing to ensure that we are performing all necessary rework. Primarily driven by this issue, we have recognized a $46 million forward loss on the 787 program.

轉向787計劃。由於我們與波音公司的持續接觸，我們發現機身前部有額外的組裝和表面處理問題。此問題與 Spirit 從我們的二級供應商收到的零件有關，我們正在與波音和該供應商合作解決方案。我們將繼續與波音公司協調，以確保我們進行所有必要的返工。主要受此問題影響，我們確認 787 項目的遠期損失為 4,600 萬美元。

Despite this forward loss, we are maintaining our free cash flow target of negative $200 million to $300 million, as indicated on our last earnings call. This amount is net of the $300 million cash tax benefit, which we expect to receive in the second half of this year.

儘管存在預期損失，但正如我們上次財報電話會議所示，我們仍將自由現金流目標維持在負 2 億至 3 億美元之間。該金額扣除了我們預計在今年下半年獲得的 3 億美元現金稅收優惠。

Next, I would like to highlight the fact that we published our first sustainability report in June, outlining Spirit's environmental, social and governance strategy. The report also includes a few of our notable 2020 achievements. For example, by the end of this year, we intend to be 100% wind powered at our Wichita facility.

接下來，我想強調的是，我們在 6 月發布了第一份永續發展報告，概述了 Spirit 的環境、社會和治理策略。該報告還包括我們 2020 年的一些值得注意的成就。例如，到今年年底，我們計劃在威奇托工廠實現 100% 風力發電。

Now our Chief Operating Officer, Sam Marnick, will take you through updates on our acquisition integrations. Sam?

現在，我們的營運長 Sam Marnick 將向您介紹我們收購整合的最新動態。薩姆？

Thank you, Tom. The integration workstreams for our recent acquisitions are progressing well. We recently acquired the assets of Applied Aerodynamics, and we've already completed approximately 60% of the 323 identified integration tasks. The integration of our other acquisition from Bombardier is also going well. We have completed about 90% of the tasks required to integrate the Belfast, Morocco and Dallas site. The remaining tasks are largely associated with the information technology transition services agreement, and we expect to complete it before the end of the year.

謝謝你，湯姆。我們最近收購的整合工作進展順利。我們最近收購了 Applied Aerodynamics 的資產，並且已經完成了 323 項已確定的整合任務中的約 60%。我們從龐巴迪收購的另一項收購的整合也進展順利。我們已經完成了貝爾法斯特、摩洛哥和達拉斯站點整合所需任務的約 90%。剩下的任務主要與資訊科技過渡服務協議有關，我們預計在年底前完成。

The estimated synergies we're expecting from the deal are tracking to plan. We have seen good progress on A220 wing costs, supply chain improvements and infrastructure optimization. Airbus continues to have confidence in this aircraft, and we expect production rates to continue to improve over time.

我們預計該交易將產生的協同效應正在按計劃進行。我們看到 A220 機翼成本、供應鏈改善和基礎設施優化方面取得了良好進展。空中巴士公司仍然對這架飛機充滿信心，我們預計生產力將隨著時間的推移繼續提高。

Turning to the Belfast pension plan. We have ended our formal consultation with employees and the unions. Subject to the completion of the process, we will close the plan to future benefit accrual and provide a defined contribution benefit plan before the end of the year. The Bombardier asset acquisition significantly increased our business jet work statement. We also secured the award of the engine nacelle on the new Falcon 10X. This new growth has established Spirit as a leading business jet aerostructure supplier, a market segment that is recovering rapidly following the pandemic. These business aircraft inventories are down around 40% year-over-year, highlighting a strong demand. Additionally, U.S. business jet flight activity is about 6% higher than prepandemic levels, another good indicator of a rebound in this market segment.

轉向貝爾法斯特退休金計劃。我們已經結束了與員工和工會的正式協商。待流程完成後，我們將結束未來福利應計計劃，並在年底前提供固定繳款福利計劃。龐巴迪資產收購顯著增加了我們的公務機工作報表。我們也獲得了新款 Falcon 10X 引擎室的獎項。這一新的成長使 Spirit 成為領先的公務機航空結構供應商，該細分市場在疫情後正在迅速復甦。這些公務機庫存年減約 40%，凸顯了強勁的需求。此外，美國公務機飛行活動比疫情前水準高出約 6%，這是該細分市場反彈的另一個良好指標。

We believe our capabilities and business ship programs position us well to generate $500 million of revenue at accretive margins by 2023.

我們相信，我們的能力和業務船舶計劃將使我們能夠在 2023 年之前以增值的利潤創造 5 億美元的收入。

Another market segment, we are watching closely is urban air mobility, also referred to as electric vertical and take off aircraft or eVTOL. We believe our expertise in composite aerostructure design and manufacturing bring unique capabilities in this future mode of transport. We've been exploring opportunities with a number of companies in this exciting new area and have signed agreements that are already generating revenue.

我們密切關注的另一個細分市場是城市空中交通，也稱為電動垂直起飛飛機或 eVTOL。我們相信，我們在複合材料航空結構設計和製造方面的專業知識為這種未來的運輸方式帶來了獨特的能力。我們一直在這個令人興奮的新領域與許多公司探索機會，並簽署了已經產生收入的協議。

Now I'll turn it back over to Tom.

現在我會把它轉回給湯姆。

Thanks, Sam. These 2 acquisitions have helped us grow our aftermarket and business jet businesses. We are also accelerating our revenue diversification efforts in defense, which we expect will grow by roughly 20% in 2021.

謝謝，薩姆。這兩項收購幫助我們發展了售後市場和公務機業務。我們也正在加速國防領域的營收多元化，預計 2021 年國防收入將成長約 20%。

Now I'll turn the call over to Mark to take you through our detailed financial results. Mark?

現在我將把電話轉給馬克，向您介紹我們詳細的財務表現。標記？

Thank you, Tom, and good morning, everyone. I hope everybody is doing well. We continue to see 2021 as a bridge year for our Spirit and the commercial aviation industry. Domestic air travel in the United States as well as many other regions of the world are starting to recover, which is encouraging, especially for narrow-body aircraft production rates. We are cautiously monitoring the COVID variant and its impact on this recovery, particularly with international travel. We expect international air travel will continue to recover at a slower pace, and therefore, wide-body programs will remain a headwind for the next few years. As we work through the second half of the year, we are starting to see the benefits of increasing narrow-body production rates.

謝謝你，湯姆，大家早安。我希望每個人都做得很好。我們繼續將 2021 年視為我們的精神和商業航空業的橋樑年。美國以及世界許多其他地區的國內航空旅行正在開始復甦，這是令人鼓舞的，特別是對於窄體飛機的生產率。我們正在謹慎監測新冠病毒變種及其對經濟復甦的影響，特別是對國際旅行的影響。我們預計國際航空旅行將繼續以較慢的速度復甦，因此寬體客機計畫在未來幾年仍將是阻力。隨著下半年的工作，我們開始看到提高窄體飛機生產率的好處。

Now let's move to our second quarter 2021 results. Please turn to Slide 3. Revenue for the quarter was $1 billion, up 55% from the same quarter of last year and approximately 11% above the first quarter of 2021. The revenue increase was primarily due to production on the 737 and A320 programs as well as increased revenue from the recently acquired A220 wing and Bombardier business jet programs. These increases were partially offset by the lower wide-body production rates resulting from the continued impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on international air traffic.

現在讓我們來看看 2021 年第二季的業績。請參閱投影片 3。本季營收為 10 億美元，比去年同期成長 55%，比 2021 年第一季成長約 11%。營收成長主要歸功於 737 和 A320 專案的生產，最近收購的A220 機翼和龐巴迪公務機計畫帶來的收入增加。這些增長被 COVID-19 大流行對國際空中交通的持續影響導致的寬體客機生產率降低所部分抵消。

Turning to deliveries. Overall deliveries increased to 243 shipsets compared to 159 shipsets in the same quarter of 2020. The second quarter 737 deliveries have increased to 35 compared to 19 shipsets delivered in the second quarter of last year. We still expect to deliver around 160 shipsets during the year. Additionally, second quarter A320 deliveries increased to 96 compared to 69 shipsets delivered in the same period of last year.

轉向交付。整體交付量增加至 243 艘船組，而 2020 年同季為 159 艘船組。第二季交付量為 737 艘，較去年第二季交付的 19 艘船組增加至 35 艘。我們仍預計年內交付約160艘船組。此外，第二季A320交車量增加至96架，去年同期交車量為69架。

Let's now turn to earnings per share on Slide 4. We reported earnings per share of negative $1.30 compared to negative $2.46 per share in the same period of 2020. Adjusted EPS was negative $0.31 compared to EPS of $2.28 in the second quarter of 2020. Adjusted EPS excludes acquisition costs, restructuring costs, noncash voluntary retirement plan charges and deferred tax asset valuation allowance.

現在讓我們來看看投影片4 上的每股盈餘。我們報告的每股盈餘為負1.30 美元，而2020 年同期為負2.46 美元。調整後每股盈餘為負0.31 美元，而2020 年第二季度每股收益為2.28 美元。每股盈餘不包括收購成本、重組成本、非現金自願退休計畫費用和遞延稅資產評估津貼。

Looking at the operating margin, we saw improvement in the second quarter to negative 10% and compared to negative 57% in the second quarter of 2020. The cost-reduction actions we have taken over the last year, along with increasing production rates, have contributed to the improved results with lower cost and expenses, including excess capacity, restructuring and abnormal COVID-19 costs. We also recognized lower forward loss charges compared to the same period last year.

從營業利潤率來看，我們看到第二季的營業利潤率有所改善，為負 10%，而 2020 年第二季為負 57%。我們去年採取的成本削減行動以及生產力的提高，以較低的成本和費用（包括產能過剩、重組和異常的COVID-19 成本）促進了業績的改善。與去年同期相比，我們也確認遠期損失費用較低。

In the second quarter, we recognized forward loss charges of $52 million, primarily driven by engineering analysis and rework on the 787 program compared to forward loss charges of $194 million in the same period of 2020. Additionally, the increase in other income is primarily related to Belfast pension plan and the absence of voluntary retirement expenses recognized in the second quarter of 2020.

第二季度，我們確認了5,200 萬美元的遠期損失費用，主要是由787 項目的工程分析和返工推動的，而2020 年同期的遠期損失費用為1.94 億美元。此外，其他收入的增加主要與貝爾法斯特退休金計劃以及 2020 年第二季度確認的自願退休費用的缺失。

I do want to mention that there was a revaluation of deferred tax assets during the second quarter of 2021 due to a future increase of the United Kingdom's corporate tax rate. This resulted in an income tax benefit of approximately $55 million. This benefit is included in both GAAP and adjusted EPS. The revaluation of deferred tax assets, along with the adjustments related to tax law changes and other state tax impacts, resulted in incremental adjustments to the valuation allowance. As a reminder, the valuation allowance is a noncash item.

我確實想提一下，由於英國未來企業稅率的提高，2021 年第二季的遞延稅務資產進行了重估。這帶來了約 5500 萬美元的所得稅優惠。此收益包含在公認會計原則和調整後每股收益中。遞延所得稅資產的重估，以及與稅法變化和其他國家稅收影響相關的調整，導致了估價備抵的增量調整。提醒一下，估價津貼是非現金項目。

Earlier this week, Spirit received the latest 787 program demand from Boeing. Based on our preliminary assessment, we expect to incur an incremental forward loss of approximately $40 million to $60 million in the third quarter of 2021 due to the impact of reduced production volumes and the corresponding amount of fixed overhead absorption applied to lower deliveries. Due to the timing, this is considered a subsequent event and is not reflected in our second quarter financial statements.

本週早些時候，Spirit收到了波音公司最新的787專案需求。根據我們的初步評估，由於產量減少以及交付量減少而吸收的相應固定管理費用的影響，我們預計 2021 年第三季將產生約 4,000 萬至 6,000 萬美元的增量遠期損失。由於時間安排，這被視為後續事件，不會反映在我們第二季的財務報表中。

Now turning to free cash flow on Slide 5. Free cash flow for the quarter was negative $53 million compared to negative -- $249 million negative in the same period of 2020. This year-over-year improvement is primarily due to cost-reduction actions, increased production volume and favorable working capital management. The second quarter cash from operations also reflect an improvement of $142 million as compared to the first quarter of '21. Excluding the cash interest payments of approximately $80 million made during the second quarter, cash from operations was positive $51 million. We expect the second half of this year to improve as single-aisle production rates continue to increase. Despite the additional challenge of the 787 program, we continue to expect free cash flow for the year to be between negative $200 million and $300 million.

現在轉向幻燈片 5 上的自由現金流。該季度的自由現金流為負 5300 萬美元，而 2020 年同期為負 2.49 億美元。這一同比改善主要歸功於成本削減行動，增加產量和有利的營運資金管理。第二季營運現金也比 21 年第一季增加了 1.42 億美元。不包括第二季支付的約 8,000 萬美元的現金利息，營運現金為正 5,100 萬美元。我們預計，隨著單通道生產力的持續提高，今年下半年情況將會有所改善。儘管 787 項目面臨額外挑戰，我們仍然預期今年的自由現金流將在負 2 億至 3 億美元之間。

Let's now turn to our cash and debt balances on Slide 6. We ended the second quarter with $1.3 billion of cash and $3.6 billion of debt. In February, we paid $300 million floating rate notes early, and we remain on track to repay $1 billion in debt during the next 3 years. The timing will be in line with air traffic and narrow-body production rate recoveries. The cadence of the global recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic could result in fluctuations in our cash flows from period-to-period.

現在讓我們來看看投影片 6 上的現金和債務餘額。第二季結束時，我們有 13 億美元的現金和 36 億美元的債務。 2 月份，我們提前支付了 3 億美元的浮動利率票據，我們仍有望在未來 3 年內償還 10 億美元的債務。時間安排將與空中交通和窄體飛機生產率的恢復一致。全球從 COVID-19 大流行中復甦的節奏可能會導致我們的現金流量出現不同時期的波動。

Now let's turn to our segment performance on Slide 7. In the second quarter, fuselage segment revenues were $492 million, up 51% compared to the same period of 2020, primarily due to higher production volumes on the 737 and Bombardier business jet program, partially offset by lower production volumes on the 787 program. Operating margin for the quarter was negative 7% compared to negative 77% in the same period of the prior year, primarily due to increased 737 production volumes and the resulting decrease in excess capacity costs as well as less net forward losses in the absence of a loss on disposal charges. The fuselage segment recorded $4 million of favorable cumulative catch-up adjustments and $36 million of net forward losses during the quarter, primarily due to the 787 program.

現在讓我們轉向幻燈片7 上的細分市場表現。第二季度，機身細分市場收入為4.92 億美元，與2020 年同期相比增長51%，這主要是由於737 和龐巴迪公務機項目的產量增加，部分原因是787 計畫產量下降所抵銷。本季營業利潤率為負 7%，而上年同期為負 77%，這主要是由於 737 產量增加以及由此導致的過剩產能成本下降，以及在沒有訂單的情況下淨遠期損失減少。處置費用損失。機身部分在本季錄得 400 萬美元的有利累計追趕調整和 3600 萬美元的淨遠期損失，這主要是由於 787 項目。

Propulsion revenue in the quarter improved to $242 million, up 43% compared to the same period of 2020, primarily due to higher revenue on the 737 program and aftermarket sales, partially offset by decreased volume on the 777 program. Despite the challenging environment, operating margin for the quarter was positive 12%. This is compared to negative 10% in the same quarter of 2020. Increased 737 production and the resulting decrease in excess capacity costs as well as less forward loss charges were the main drivers to the improvement in the segment profitability. The segment recorded $6 million of favorable cumulative catch-up adjustments and $9 million of forward losses.

本季推進系統營收增至 2.42 億美元，與 2020 年同期相比成長 43%，主要是由於 737 項目和售後市場銷售收入增加，部分被 777 項目銷售下降所抵銷。儘管環境充滿挑戰，本季營業利潤率仍達 12%。相較之下，2020 年同一季度的成長率為負 10%。737 產量的增加以及由此帶來的過剩產能成本的下降以及遠期損失費用的減少是該部門盈利能力改善的主要推動力。該部門錄得 600 萬美元的有利累計追趕調整和 900 萬美元的遠期損失。

High production volumes on the 737, A220 and A320 programs were the main contributors to the increase in wing revenue to $259 million. Operating margin for the quarter was negative 6% compared to negative 35% in the second quarter of 2020. The increases in segment profitability and operating margin were primarily a result of increased A320 production volume as well as less forward losses compared to the same period of 2020. The segment recorded $8 million of net forward losses.

737、A220 和 A320 項目的高產量是機翼收入增加至 2.59 億美元的主要貢獻者。本季營業利潤率為負 6%，而 2020 年第二季度為負 35%。部門盈利能力和營業利潤率的增長主要是由於 A320 產量增加以及遠期虧損較去年同期減少。2020 年。該部門錄得800 萬美元的淨遠期損失。

In closing, we are encouraged by the recovery in domestic air traffic demand. We anticipate improved performance through the second half of the year as narrow-body production rates continue to increase. Increasing narrow-body rates should also create positive momentum going into 2022. Additionally, we are pleased to see the progress made so far on our aftermarket business jet and defense diversification efforts. Integrating our acquisitions and expanding our diversification continue to drive long-term growth potential. Cash flows remain a top priority for our team, and we are actively working on the execution of our cost and working capital initiatives. We are also monitoring the remaining regulatory approvals needed for the 737 MAX return to service. And in addition, we are encouraged by the domestic aerospace recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.

最後，我們對國內航空運輸需求的復甦感到鼓舞。我們預計，隨著窄體飛機生產率的持續提高，今年下半年的業績將有所改善。窄體機價格的提高也應該會在 2022 年創造積極的勢頭。此外，我們很高興看到我們的售後公務機和國防多元化努力迄今為止所取得的進展。整合我們的收購並擴大我們的多元化繼續推動長期成長潛力。現金流仍然是我們團隊的首要任務，我們正在積極致力於執行成本和營運資本計畫。我們也正在監控 737 MAX 恢復服務所需的剩餘監管批准。此外，我們對國內航空航天從 COVID-19 大流行中恢復過來感到鼓舞。

With that, I'll turn it back over to Tom for some closing comments.

至此，我將把它轉回給 Tom 進行一些總結評論。

Thanks, Mark. We continue to see improvement in domestic air traffic, which has translated to improved production rates for our narrow-body aircraft versus 2020. For the year, we expect to deliver 160 737 shipsets, up from just 71 in 2020.

謝謝，馬克。我們繼續看到國內空中交通的改善，這轉化為我們窄體飛機的生產率與 2020 年相比有所提高。今年，我們預計將交付 160 737 架飛機，而 2020 年僅為 71 架。

This quarter, we also continued work with Boeing to address fit and finish issues on the 787 program, and we'll continue to coordinate with them to complete all necessary rework. The recovery in narrow-body production is supporting better overall performance. We're also encouraged by the continued growth in our aftermarket, business jet and defense programs. We are maintaining our 2021 free cash flow guidance of negative $200 million to $300 million.

本季度，我們也繼續與波音公司合作解決 787 項目的組裝和完工問題，我們將繼續與他們協調以完成所有必要的返工。窄體飛機生產的復甦支撐著更好的整體表現。我們的售後市場、公務機和國防項目的持續成長也讓我們感到鼓舞。我們維持 2021 年負 2 億至 3 億美元自由現金流指引。

With that, we'll be happy to take your questions.

這樣，我們將很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question will come from Seth Seifman with JPMorgan.

（操作員指令）我們的第一個問題將來自摩根大通的 Seth Seifman。

Okay. Great. A question about the 787 and just the degree to which you feel you have all of the, I guess, that rework needs to be done, understood and in hand and that your suppliers do as well.

好的。偉大的。我想問一個關於 787 的問題，以及您認為自己擁有所有需要完成、理解和掌握的返工程度，您的供應商也這樣做。

And then following up a little bit more on the quantitative side in terms of thinking about where revenue is going for you guys. When the rate came down by 2 per month in late 2019 and Q3 and then again in Q4, that was driving charges for Spirit of $34 million to $35 million. Is there anything we can read into the size of the $40 million to $60 million charge coming in Q3 with regard to where your production is going to go in the -- starting in the second half year?

然後在定量方面進行更多跟進，思考你們的收入去向。當費率在 2019 年末和第三​​季度每月下降 2 倍，然後在第四季度再次下降時，Spirit 的費用增加了 3,400 萬美元至 3,500 萬美元。我們是否可以解讀第三季 4,000 萬至 6,000 萬美元費用的規模，以及從下半年開始你們的生產將走向何方？

Okay. Thanks. So with regard to 787, what I would say is we have been working very hard in conjunction with Boeing to review all aspects of the production process to understand what issues might be there. And echoing what Dave Calhoun said on the Boeing earnings call, the latest issue isn't an example of Boeing being hard on Spirit or the FAA being hard on Spirit. It's a question of Spirit being hard on Spirit. We took a very hard look at all of our production processes, and we did identify an issue with a part in the forward fuselage that comes from one of our suppliers. And as a result of that, we've done some additional work and identified some rework, which we will be completing. And that's what really drove most of the forward loss in this quarter. And so have we gotten everything? We've looked at it very hard. We've scrubbed it very hard. So we're confident that the issues that we know about, we are addressing. And we will continue to look at it and work closely with Boeing.

好的。謝謝。因此，對於 787，我想說的是，我們一直在與波音公司一起非常努力地審查生產過程的各個方面，以了解可能存在哪些問題。與戴夫卡爾霍恩（Dave Calhoun）在波音財報電話會議上所說的話相呼應，最新一期並不是波音對 Spirit 或 FAA 對 Spirit 採取嚴厲措施的例子。這是一個精神對精神嚴厲的問題。我們仔細檢查了所有生產流程，確實發現了來自我們供應商之一的前機身零件存在問題。因此，我們做了一些額外的工作並確定了一些返工，我們將完成這些工作。這才是本季大部分遠期損失的真正原因。那麼我們已經得到了一切嗎？我們非常認真地研究過它。我們已經非常用力地擦洗了。因此，我們有信心我們正在解決我們所了解的問題。我們將繼續關注這一問題並與波音公司密切合作。

We do have a good handle in terms of the fixes required. We outlined some fixes in the last quarter. Those are underway. In fact, the repairs and the rework are more than half finished on the ones that were previously identified. On the new issue, we do have a repair. The engineering analysis did not show that it was a safety of flight issue. So we don't know that there's going to be anything required on the fleet, although we'll continue to do analysis and that might require more inspections in the future. But there is rework required on the units that Boeing hasn't shipped, and that's what we are in the process of doing. But we have the repair. We have delivered the first units and the rework has begun.

就所需的修復而言，我們確實有很好的處理能力。我們在上個季度概述了一些修復措施。這些正在進行中。事實上，先前確定的維修和返工已經完成一半以上。對於新問題，我們確實進行了修復。工程分析並未顯示這是飛行安全問題。因此，我們不知道機隊是否需要任何東西，儘管我們將繼續進行分析，並且將來可能需要更多檢查。但波音尚未出貨的設備需要進行返工，而這正是我們正在進行的工作。但我們有維修。我們已經交付了第一批設備，返工工作已經開始。

Now with regard to the rate outlook, the subsequent event was really a result of getting a new indication of program demand from Boeing and looking out over the next several years to see what impact it could have on our position. As you know, we're in a forward loss and our accounting block goes all the way out to 1405. So we're taking into account a very long period of time. And I have to say that the situation is extremely dynamic. We have information that we're learning more every day, and the situation is likely to change and we'll respond accordingly. But we did want to give an indication of a subsequent event because the program demand is changing as we all know. And over the next 3 months, as we get more information and we do more analysis, we'll have an update in terms of what the actual impact is.

現在就利率前景而言，隨後的事件實際上是從波音公司獲得有關項目需求的新指示的結果，並展望未來幾年，看看它可能對我們的立場產生什麼影響。如您所知，我們正處於遠期損失中，我們的會計區塊一直到 1405。因此，我們要考慮很長一段時間。我不得不說，情況非常動態。我們有信息表明，我們每天都在了解更多信息，情況可能會發生變化，我們會做出相應的反應。但我們確實想指出後續事件，因為眾所周知，計劃需求正在改變。在接下來的 3 個月裡，隨著我們獲得更多資訊並進行更多分析，我們將獲得有關實際影響的最新資訊。

Our next question will come from Myles Walton with UBS.

我們的下一個問題將來自瑞銀集團的邁爾斯·沃爾頓。

Maybe just a follow-up on that. You've taken about $100 million forward loss charges between this quarter and next quarter on the 87. How much of that is cash you're absorbing in the guidance for this year versus future years? I don't know who wants to take that one.

也許只是後續行動。從本季到下季度，您在 87 上承擔了大約 1 億美元的遠期損失費用。與未來幾年相比，您在今年的指導中吸收了多少現金？我不知道誰想拿走那個。

Myles, as you indicated, we took a $29 million forward loss on 787 in the first quarter. We identified some issues that were going to require some rework in our factory and help supporting Boeing. And then Tom just described the situation that occurred here in the second quarter, the additional $49 million.

邁爾斯，正如您所說，我們第一季 787 的遠期損失為 2900 萬美元。我們發現了一些問題，需要在我們的工廠進行一些返工，並幫助支持波音公司。然後湯姆剛剛描述了第二季度發生的情況，額外的 4900 萬美元。

We expect that as you factor in the impacts of lower production rates, a portion of the costs are cash and noncash in nature. We don't -- I would say the majority of the cash should be expended this year, the cash component of it. I do think that some of that cash consumption and the continued rework will continue into 2022. As Boeing indicated on their call, they expect to deliver about 1/2 of the units that they have stored here in 2021.

我們預計，當您考慮生產力下降的影響時，部分成本本質上是現金和非現金。我們不——我想說，今年應該花費大部分現金，也就是其中的現金部分。我確實認為，部分現金消耗和持續返工將持續到 2022 年。正如波音公司在電話中表示的那樣，他們預計將在 2021 年交付在此存儲的約 1/2 的設備。

And so the rework that we have to do, we have to coordinate with Boeing, get access to the airplanes. And so it's hard for me to be specific because it's a long and involved process, where we work with Boeing, we get access to the airplane. We have to have our mechanics to do the work, get the parts in there. But I would anticipate the rework costs that we have, knowing that about half of those aircraft will be delivered next year, we'll be incurring that cash impact both in 2021 and 2022. I wouldn't quite say it's 50-50. It's probably more heavily weighted to '21. But there will be some cash headwinds in 2022 as we continue to rework those airplanes to allow Boeing to deliver to their airline customers.

因此，我們必須進行返工，我們必須與波音公司協調，以獲得飛機的授權權。因此，我很難具體說明，因為這是一個漫長而複雜的過程，我們與波音合作，我們可以使用飛機。我們必須讓我們的機械師來做這項工作，把零件放在那裡。但我會預期我們的返工成本，因為我們知道大約一半的飛機將於明年交付，我們將在 2021 年和 2022 年產生現金影響。我不太會說是 50-50。 '21 的權重可能更大。但隨著我們繼續改造這些飛機以使波音能夠向其航空公司客戶交付飛機，2022 年將會出現一些現金阻力。

Okay. And Tom, you mentioned the -- or the liquidation of about 80 MAX inventory in 2022. I guess that would imply you producing, I don't know, just under 300 MAXs next year maybe. Is that going to swing materially based on the Boeing production schedule? Or is the idea you definitely want to get 80 liquidated, and so your production will be kind of the swing item?

好的。湯姆，您提到了 2022 年大約 80 台 MAX 庫存的清算。我想這意味著您明年可能會生產不到 300 台 MAX，我不知道。這會根據波音的生產計畫發生重大變化嗎？或者你的想法肯定希望得到 80 清算，所以你的產品將是一種搖擺項目？

No, it will definitely depend on Boeing's production, and we'll coordinate closely with them. And the current plan in terms of the buffer is based on outlook and scenarios that we've discussed with Boeing, but that could change. For example, Boeing has indicated that China's recertification of the MAX will likely influence their future production schedules. So that'll be one of the factors that we continue to monitor closely.

不，這肯定取決於波音的生產，我們會與他們密切協調。目前的緩衝計畫是基於我們與波音討論的前景和情景，但這可能會改變。例如，波音表示，中國對 MAX 的重新認證可能會影響其未來的生產計畫。因此，這將是我們繼續密切監控的因素之一。

Our next question will come from David Strauss of Barclays.

我們的下一個問題將來自巴克萊銀行的大衛·施特勞斯。

I think a question for Mark. Mark, in -- I guess is the guidance for 2022 still a return to positive free cash flow? And if so, can you help us bridge that difference or that gap between the, call it, $500 million to $600 million ex the tax benefit that you're talking about burning this year? And are you still -- what exactly are you assuming for working capital for this year and next?

我想問馬克一個問題。馬克，我想 2022 年的指導仍是回歸正向自由現金流嗎？如果是這樣，您能否幫助我們彌補您今年討論的扣除稅收優惠後的 5 億至 6 億美元之間的差異或差距？您對今年和明年的營運資金到底有何假設？

Sure, David. Yes, I mean, we've communicated our goal and objective. And based on the information that we have over the last couple of quarters that on an operational basis, we think that we can get to cash flow positive. I think that when you think about what are the tailwinds that will help us in 2022, obviously, the #1 component will be the increasing 737 MAX production rate. And I will tell you that, that is the single biggest driver to the cash flow improvement in 2022. And so we have some baseline assumptions on what the delivery rates are. But as you know here, Boeing is still working with China and have given indications that production rates above 31 are highly dependent on the China certification. So the #1 priority for us or the #1 factor is our assumptions on where the 737 production rates are going to go in 2022. And Boeing does -- we do have preliminary schedules, but those can change over time.

當然，大衛。是的，我的意思是，我們已經傳達了我們的目標。根據過去幾季我們在營運方面掌握的信息，我們認為我們可以實現正現金流。我認為，當你思考 2022 年對我們有幫助的有利因素時，顯然，排名第一的因素將是 737 MAX 生產力的提高。我會告訴你，這是 2022 年現金流改善的最大驅動力。因此，我們對交付率有一些基準假設。但如您所知，波音仍在與中國合作，並表示 31 以上的生產力高度依賴中國的認證。因此，對我們來說，第一要務或第一因素是我們對2022 年737 生產率的假設。波音確實有——我們確實有初步的時間表，但這些時間表可能會隨著時間的推移而改變。

The second item I would say is we'll continue to have some tailwind benefits on the working capital side. We built up a lot of inventory. As you can see this year, we're doing a good job of working and destocking some of our inventory. But the amount of inventory days on hand that I expect us to have at the end of the year as well as what we're turning our inventory is nowhere close to our historical levels. So we should continue to receive working capital benefits, particularly on the inventory side. There'll be some headwinds on the AR side just as the revenues increase.

我要說的第二點是，我們將繼續在營運資金方面獲得一些順風的好處。我們建立了大量的庫存。正如你所看到的，今年我們在處理和去庫存方面做得很好。但我預計我們到年底的現有庫存天數以及我們的庫存週轉量與歷史水準相去甚遠。因此，我們應該繼續獲得營運資本收益，特別是在庫存方面。隨著收入的增加，AR 方面也會遇到一些阻力。

But I would say that those are the 2 biggest components. It's the 737 MAX. Obviously, Airbus is talking about significantly higher production rates next year on the A320. That will be a nice contributor for us as well. And less rework that on the 787 should -- we should see less cash consumption on that. And those are the major drivers. But we have a bunch of other initiatives that we're working behind the scenes to go drive cash flow improvement. But I would say that the majority of the improvement that we're going to see between '21 and '22 is tied specifically to narrow-body production rate increases and the continued destocking of inventory, which gives us a really good chance to be -- to get to operational cash flow in '22.

但我想說的是，這是兩個最大的組成部分。這是 737 MAX。顯然，空中巴士正在談論明年 A320 的生產力大幅提高。這對我們來說也將是一個很好的貢獻者。 787 上的返工應該更少——我們應該會看到更少的現金消耗。這些是主要的驅動因素。但我們正在幕後採取一系列其他措施來推動現金流改善。但我想說的是，我們將在 21 世紀到 22 世紀之間看到的大部分改進都與窄體飛機生產率的提高和庫存的持續去庫存有關，這給了我們一個非常好的機會： - 22 年實現營運現金流。

And Mark, does that include the $120-or-so million advance you have to pay back to Boeing on the MAX in '22 in terms of thinking about positive free cash flow?

馬克，考慮到正自由現金流，這是否包括您在 22 年 MAX 項目上必須向波音公司支付的 120 億美元左右的預付款？

Well, I really view that as a onetime isolated repayment that is tied to an agreement that we had with Boeing back in 2019. Obviously, that's a big headwind that we want to overcome as well. But my primary goal is working with our teams to get to a point where operationally, income-wise, we're generating positive cash flow in 2022.

嗯，我真的認為這是一次孤立的還款，與我們在 2019 年與波音公司達成的協議有關。顯然，這也是我們想要克服的一個巨大阻力。但我的主要目標是與我們的團隊合作，在營運和收入方面，在 2022 年實現正現金流。

Our next question will come from Doug Harned of Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題將來自伯恩斯坦的道格·哈內德。

Getting back to -- you mentioned the -- Mark, you mentioned the Airbus rate. I mean they were very firm last week on their plans to ramp to 64 a month on the single aisle by Q2 2023. We've heard skepticism from a number of suppliers on that rate increase. How do you view this? They talked about a linear ramp to that point. I mean are you set, including your lower-tier suppliers, to execute on this? And then what happens if the demand environment should deteriorate and rates don't go on that trend line? How do you respond to that?

回到——你提到了——馬克，你提到了空中巴士的費率。我的意思是，他們上週非常堅定地計劃到 2023 年第二季將單通道數量增加到每月 64 件。我們聽到許多供應商對這一提速表示懷疑。您對此有何看法？他們討論了到達該點的線性斜坡。我的意思是，您（包括您的下級供應商）準備好執行此操作了嗎？那麼，如果需求環境惡化且利率沒有保持在趨勢線上，會發生什麼事？你對此有何回應？

So the first answer is, yes, we are set. We've been working very closely with our suppliers to meet the demand scenarios that Airbus has shared with us. I give a lot of credit to the Airbus leadership team, including Guillaume and all of his key lieutenants. They've met with the suppliers, and they've taken us through their assumptions and all the actions that they're taking to confirm what the rate increases are. And as indicated on their call last week, if you look at their backlog and how long it is at different production rates and how long airlines would have to wait for their units, the production rate increases would be justified. So on that basis, they've shared with us their scenarios, and we are working to those, and we're working with our sub-tier suppliers to those rates as well.

所以第一個答案是，是的，我們已經準備好了。我們一直與供應商密切合作，以滿足空中巴士與我們分享的需求場景。我非常感謝空中巴士的領導團隊，包括紀堯姆和他所有的重要副手。他們已經與供應商會面，並向我們介紹了他們的假設以及他們為確認加價而採取的所有行動。正如他們上週的電話會議所表明的那樣，如果你看看他們的積壓訂單、不同生產率下的積壓時間以及航空公司需要等待多長時間的訂單，生產率的提高是合理的。因此，在此基礎上，他們與我們分享了他們的方案，我們正在努力解決這些問題，我們也正在與我們的二級供應商合作解決這些費率。

Now if it changes, then, of course, we'll take the appropriate action. But the good news is we've been at these levels before. So all the infrastructure is in place, all the capital is in place, all the tooling is in place. And we've had all the workers hired and trained. Now some of those have been furloughed, but they remain available. And as the rates go up, we will be recalling them. And so we're confident that we're going to be able to execute on those. And if they change, we're confident also that we'll have sufficient lead time that we can take the appropriate actions. But we're ready and our sub-tier supplier base is ready as well.

現在，如果情況發生變化，那麼我們當然會採取適當的行動。但好消息是我們以前就達到這些水準。因此，所有基礎設施都已就位，所有資本均已就位，所有工具均已就位。我們已經僱用並培訓了所有工人。現在，其中一些人已經休假，但他們仍然可以工作。隨著價格的上漲，我們將召回它們。因此，我們有信心能夠執行這些目標。如果它們發生變化，我們也有信心我們將有足夠的準備時間來採取適當的行動。但我們已經準備好了，我們的二級供應商基礎也已經準備好了。

And then just related to that, on the A350, I mean, you had taken rate to 3 a month. Our understanding was that Airbus continues to produce 5 a month and that you delivered more fuselages than they can run through final assembly when they cut their rates. And they're now planning for a raise to 6 a month. What do you see as the trajectory for your production rate on the A350?

與此相關的是，在 A350 上，我的意思是，您已將費率改為每月 3 次。我們的理解是，空中巴士公司繼續每月生產 5 架飛機，而當他們降價時，你們交付的機身數量超過了他們完成組裝的數量。他們現在計劃加薪至每月 6 人。您認為 A350 的生產力軌跡如何？

Well, again, we mirror them pretty closely. The sections that we make for the A350 are the center fuselage section, which they call Section 15 and also the fixed leading edge on the wing. And so as their production rates go up, we'll go up.

好吧，我們再次非常仔細地反映了它們。我們為 A350 製作的部分是機身中央部分，他們稱之為第 15 部分，也是機翼上的固定前緣。因此，隨著他們的生產力提高，我們也會提高。

I mean there's sometimes some inventory adjustments that go on. But on the A350, we're usually pretty closely aligned. I mean we'll carry a few units in surplus to act as a buffer for the production system. But generally speaking, we're very much aligned to them. And so we don't see ourselves getting far off. It's very close. And our performance and delivery performance this year is quite good. They're pleased with it. And so I don't see a disconnect there. We'll go up with rate as they go up with rate on the A350, and we'll be very closely aligned.

我的意思是有時會進行一些庫存調整。但在 A350 上，我們通常非常一致。我的意思是我們將攜帶一些剩餘的單位作為生產系統的緩衝區。但總的來說，我們與他們非常一致。因此，我們認為自己不會離目標太遠。非常接近。而我們今年的業績和交付表現都是相當不錯的。他們對此很滿意。所以我不認為那裡有任何脫節。我們將提高 A350 的費率，就像他們提高 A350 的費率一樣，我們將非常緊密地保持一致。

Our next question will come from Robert Spingarn with Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題將來自瑞士信貸銀行的羅伯特·斯賓加恩。

Tom, I just have a few clarification questions. First, did A320 shipset delivery drop from Q1 to Q2?

湯姆，我有幾個需要澄清的問題。首先，A320船組交付量是否從第一季下降到第二季？

It did. We had in Q1 130 deliveries and in Q2 96. And Airbus had in Q2 132 units. So if you look at there, it was a little bit of destocking going on, inventory adjustments post-Brexit, nothing from our standpoint to be concerned about. Our rate remained the same. It didn't change. It's just -- they pulled a few fewer units just because they're probably adjusting their inventory levels. So yes, that was what happened. But as we mentioned, we were up significantly from Q2 in 2020. We only delivered 69 units then. So...

它做了。我們在第一季度交付了 130 架，在第二季度交付了 96 架。空中巴士在第二季度交付了 132 架。因此，如果你看看那裡，你會發現，英國脫歐後正在進行一些去庫存、庫存調整，從我們的角度來看，沒有什麼值得擔心的。我們的費率維持不變。它沒有改變。只是——他們減少了一些單位，只是因為他們可能正在調整庫存水準。是的，這就是發生的事情。但正如我們所提到的，我們比 2020 年第二季有了顯著成長。當時我們只交付了 69 台。所以...

Do you think you're aligned now? Or does this play out over the quarter or 2?

你覺得你們現在一致了嗎？或者這會在一個季度或兩個季度內發揮作用嗎？

No, I think we're much more in alignment now. So we don't expect to see that kind of deviation going forward. I think it was an aberration in the quarter.

不，我認為我們現在更加一致了。因此，我們預計未來不會出現這種偏差。我認為這是本季的異常現象。

Okay. And then just going back to the 787. And I think you said you're still evaluating whether or not the existing fleet needs to be addressed. It sounds like that's a process you're going through with Boeing. I'm still wondering, do these conditions exist? Has this been part of the production process the entire time? Or was there a change where this supplier is doing something differently? Because I would imagine with 1,000 aircraft out there in the fleet, if you have to go there, this is a significantly more expensive problem.

好的。然後回到 787。我想您說過您仍在評估現有機隊是否需要解決。聽起來這就是你與波音公司正在經歷的一個過程。我還是想知道，這些條件存在嗎？這一直是生產過程的一部分嗎？或是該供應商是否做了不同的事情？因為我想像機隊中有 1,000 架飛機，如果你必須去那裡，這是一個成本更高的問題。

Right. Well, the answer is the production process hadn't changed. It was basically the same right from the beginning. It was just we're taking a harder look at it now and putting it under more scrutiny. The analysis showed that there was not a safety of flight issue in the fleet, and so there's no immediate action required. Now we'll continue to do engineering analysis. That could continue to evolve. But right now, there is none. And so we don't have any determination in terms of what the fleet disposition will be. But at this point, because it's not a safety of flight issue, we're looking at more inspections.

正確的。嗯，答案是生產過程沒有改變。從一開始就基本上是一樣的。只是我們現在更仔細地審視它並對其進行更多的審查。分析顯示，機隊不存在飛行安全問題，因此無需立即採取行動。現在我們繼續進行工程分析。這可能會繼續發展。但現在還沒有。因此，我們對艦隊的部署沒有任何決定。但目前，因為這不是飛行安全問題，所以我們正在考慮進行更多檢查。

But because there is a nonconformity, new aircraft can't be delivered if there's a known nonconformity. And so that's why there's rework required on the aircraft that are not delivered. And I think as Boeing mentioned, there's about 100 787 units that are not delivered right now, and so that's where we're focusing our rework efforts.

但由於有不合格項，如果有已知的不合格項，則無法交付新飛機。這就是為什麼未交付的飛機需要返工的原因。我認為正如波音公司所提到的，目前大約有 100 架 787 飛機尚未交付，因此這就是我們返工工作的重點。

Got it. And then just if you do have to take care of some aircraft that are already delivered, is that the kind of thing that can be done in a heavy check or would they have to have a special service call?

知道了。然後，如果您確實需要照顧一些已經交付的飛機，那麼這是可以透過大量檢查來完成的事情，還是需要進行特殊的服務呼叫？

Right. Those would be done in the normal scheduled heavy checks.

正確的。這些將在正常安排的大量檢查中完成。

Our next question will come from Hunter Keay with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Wolfe Research 的 Hunter Keay。

Just a couple from me. You mentioned eVTOL, I was wondering if you could expand on the opportunities there. And you mentioned some revenue, kind of curious where that's coming from, which program?

只是我的一對。您提到了 eVTOL，我想知道您是否可以擴展那裡的機會。你提到了一些收入，有點好奇它來自哪裡，哪個專案？

And then second question is, acn you give us a rough breakdown of the 54 biz jets and RJs in the quarter? And how you expect that to trend over the next 18 to 24 months?

第二個問題是，您能給我們本季 54 架公務機和 RJ 的粗略分類嗎？您預計未來 18 至 24 個月的趨勢如何？

Yes. Hunter, this is Sam. I'll take the question about eVTOL and what we're doing there. So we're talking with a number of the players in the market. And the kind of work that we're doing with the players right now, and these are yet to be announced agreements, and work with those different companies is generally around a few different areas. But I would say, specifically technical consulting services, so engineering services, things like that, but also looking forward at industrialization plans as well. So those are the areas that we're focusing on. Could you repeat your second question there, Hunter?

是的。亨特，這是山姆。我將回答有關 eVTOL 以及我們正在做什麼的問題。因此，我們正在與市場上的一些參與者進行交談。我們現在正在與玩家進行的工作，這些尚未宣布的協議，與這些不同公司的合作通常圍繞著幾個不同的領域。但我想說，特別是技術諮詢服務、工程服務等，也期待工業化計畫。這些都是我們關注的領域。亨特，你能重複一下你的第二個問題嗎？

Yes. It was about the 54 bizjet and RJ shipments in the quarter. I wonder if you can give us any color on the breakdown there and kind of how you expect that...

是的。這是關於本季度 54 架商務噴射機和 RJ 的出貨量。我想知道你是否可以給我們任何關於那裡的故障的資訊以及你的期望...

Well, let me jump on that one. So we don't break down specifically the business jet deliveries just at the request of the OEMs. But really, the increase is driven by the fact that we now have the Bombardier assets. And so the Challenger and the Global Express are now in these numbers where they were not before. And actually, in this quarter, there might be one Lear, the final last Lear, that snuck in there as well. But other than that, we don't break that down into more detail.

好吧，讓我跳上那個。因此，我們不會僅根據原始設備製造商的要求具體細分公務機交付量。但實際上，這種成長是由我們現在擁有龐巴迪資產這一事實所推動的。因此，挑戰者號和全球快車現在的數量達到了前所未有的水平。事實上，在這個季度，可能還有一個李爾王，最後一個李爾王，也潛入了那裡。但除此之外，我們不會將其分解為更多細節。

Our next question will come from Cai von Rumohr with Cowen.

我們的下一個問題將由蔡·馮·魯莫爾和考恩提出。

Yes. So you characterize the 787 rate change as a subsequent event. How much of the $40 million to $60 million applies to this year given that they basically have cut their rate until they get this problem done? And how much of this is in the guide? And do you expect to recover any of the cost if the 1 supplier had a part that's causing you the heartburn? I mean, are they going to be able to reimburse you for any of that?

是的。因此，您將 787 費率變更描述為後續事件。鑑於他們基本上已經降低了費率，直到解決這個問題，所以 4000 萬至 6000 萬美元中有多少適用於今年？指南中有多少內容？如果第一個供應商的零件讓您感到胃灼熱，您是否希望收回任何成本？我的意思是，他們能夠補償你的任何費用嗎？

Right. So I'll take that one, Cai. First of all, most of the forward loss would be associated with future years, not necessarily this year because our block goes out to 1405. And at current production rates that takes us out to 2025. So not much of it is related to this year. It's just the way the numbers work. But again, it's a dynamic situation. It's going to change. And so we'll learn more over the course of the next quarter and we'll give more firm indications of what the impact will be.

正確的。所以我就選那個，蔡。首先，大部分遠期損失將與未來幾年相關，不一定是今年，因為我們的區塊將持續到 1405 年。按照目前的生產力，我們將持續到 2025 年。所以其中與今年無關的不多。這就是數字的運作方式。但同樣，這是一個動態的情況。它將會改變。因此，我們將在下個季度了解更多信息，並就其影響給出更明確的指示。

With regard to supplier recoveries, we've taken into account everything with our current forward losses that we have announced. We're focused right now primarily on the operational recovery, and there'll be future commercial requirements. But we have had discussions with the supplier, and they're certainly cooperating. They're working very hard and coordinating with us. And they'll share in the commercial situation as well, but we've taken into account all of that with the current forward loss.

關於供應商的恢復，我們已經考慮了我們已宣布的當前遠期損失的所有內容。我們現在主要專注於營運恢復，未來還會有商業需求。但我們已經與供應商進行了討論，他們肯定會合作。他們工作非常努力並與我們協調。他們也將分享商業情況，但我們已經將所有這些與當前的遠期損失考慮在內。

And then you mentioned kind of the over absorption issue. Given that Boeing is basically cutting back their production near term below 5 a month, is that going to have any noticeable impact on this year at least? How much is it in terms of cash this year?

然後你提到了過度吸收的問題。鑑於波音公司近期基本上將其產量削減至每月 5 架以下，這至少會對今年產生任何明顯影響嗎？今年的現金是多少？

It's going to create a little bit of a headwind. But as we've indicated, we're holding to the guidance we gave, which is we'll have a cash usage of $200 million to $300 million net of the cash tax benefit. So yes, it's some headwind, but we're actually doing better in some of our working capital initiatives to help offset it as well as some of our cost management initiatives. So we're holding to the guidance that we gave earlier.

這將會產生一點阻力。但正如我們所指出的，我們堅持我們給予的指導，即扣除現金稅收優惠後，我們將擁有 2 億至 3 億美元的現金使用量。所以，是的，這是一些逆風，但我們實際上在一些營運資本計劃以及一些成本管理計劃方面做得更好，以幫助抵消它。因此，我們堅持之前給予的指導。

Our next question will come from George Shapiro with Shapiro Research.

我們的下一個問題將來自夏皮羅研究中心的喬治·夏皮羅。

Yes. Mark, I wanted to ask, if I look at the implied underlying margins in like fuselage and wings, sequentially, they're actually down despite higher revenues. I'm just wondering what's driving that deterioration. I'm taking out all of the onetime things that you talked about.

是的。馬克，我想問，如果我依次查看機身和機翼等隱含的基本利潤，儘管收入較高，但它們實際上是下降的。我只是想知道是什麼導致了這種惡化。我要把你曾經談論過的所有事情都拿出來。

Well, we probably need to compare notes here, George, because some of our internal looks at -- I'm seeing slight sequential improvements from the first quarter to the second quarter. Not as much as I would like to see, but the analysis that I have here indicates a sequential improvement first quarter to the second quarter in all of the segments, fuselage, propulsion and wing.

好吧，喬治，我們可能需要在這裡交換意見，因為我們的一些內部觀察——我看到從第一季到第二季略有連續改善。沒有我希望看到的那麼多，但我在這裡的分析表明，從第一季到第二季度，所有部件、機身、推進系統和機翼都出現了連續改善。

My numbers are taking out the pretax losses, taking out the cume adjustments, taking out the restructuring, abnormal costs, excess capacity, so I'm taking everything out, and I have fuselage going from 8.8 to 8 and wings going from 6.9 to 3.8. I have propulsion going up. So maybe I'll check with Ryan or Aaron, and we can compare the notes that way then. But because you're saying you see -- you've done the same analysis and you're seeing the margin up slightly.

我的數字去掉了稅前損失，去掉了累積調整，去掉了重組、異常成本、過剩產能，所以我把所有東西都去掉了，我的機身從8.8變成了8，機翼從6.9變成了3.8 。我有上升的動力。所以也許我會和 Ryan 或 Aaron 核實一下，然後我們就可以這樣比較筆記。但因為你說你看到了——你做了同樣的分析，你發現利潤略有上升。

Exactly. Yes, we're seeing in fuselage somewhere between 100 and 200 basis points improvement in our margins. And that's what we're expecting. We'll see as the narrow-bodies rates pick up here in the third and fourth quarter, continue to focus on our costs and our productivity, and that should continue to allow us sequential improvements in our op margins.

確切地。是的，我們看到機身領域的利潤率提高了 100 到 200 個基點。這就是我們所期待的。我們將看到，隨著第三季和第四季窄體機運價的回升，我們將繼續關注我們的成本和生產力，這應該會繼續使我們的營運利潤率持續改善。

Okay. I'll check afterwards with Ryan. And then one other quick one. It looked like maybe a $20 million benefit from Belfast pension income in the quarter where you had the surprisingly large other income. Is that something that continues here? Or what's actually driving it?

好的。之後我會和瑞安核實一下。然後是另一個快速的。在你擁有驚人的其他收入的那個季度，貝爾法斯特退休金收入看起來可能會帶來 2000 萬美元的收益。這是這裡繼續存在的事情嗎？或者說到底是什麼在推動它？

Good question, George. Based on the current market conditions and the actuarial assumptions, we are seeing some tailwinds on pension income as it relates to, I guess, what we'll call the Bombardier or Belfast Shorts pension plan. And so that's a noncash benefit that's rolling through other income. It's completely tied to market conditions, the interest rates, the valuation of the assets and liabilities. And so that's a bit of a tailwind. I think we'll continue to see those benefits in the third and fourth quarter as long as market conditions hold. With the inflation increasing, it's obviously a very dynamic calculation when you try to factor in where your assets and liabilities are going to go. We are -- just from a clarity standpoint, we are in a deficit position on that program. But based on current market conditions, you are seeing some lift in other income, and I expect that to continue in the third quarter.

好問題，喬治。根據當前的市場狀況和精算假設，我們看到了一些退休金收入的順風車，因為我猜這與我們所說的龐巴迪或貝爾法斯特肖特退休金計劃有關。因此，這是一項透過其他收入滾動的非現金福利。它完全與市場狀況、利率、資產和負債的估值掛鉤。所以這有點順風順水。我認為，只要市場狀況保持不變，我們將在第三和第四季繼續看到這些好處。隨著通貨膨脹的加劇，當你試圖考慮你的資產和負債的去向時，這顯然是一個非常動態的計算。從明確的角度來看，我們在該計劃上處於赤字地位。但根據當前的市場狀況，您會看到其他收入增加，我預計這種情況將在第三季持續下去。

Yes. I think the other important point is that, as Sam just mentioned, on that pension program, we have closed it to new entrants and to new accruals in terms of the defined benefit portion of it. And it's going to be replaced with the defined contribution plan. And that will all be complete by the end of the year.

是的。我認為另一個重要的一點是，正如薩姆剛才提到的，在退休金計劃中，我們已經對新加入者和新的應計項目關閉了它的固定福利部分。它將被固定繳款計劃所取代。這一切都將在今年底完成。

Yes. And that's why, Tom, I was asking whether that income continues, I guess it continues the rest of this year and then it goes away next year if -- with the program, no?

是的。這就是為什麼，湯姆，我問這種收入是否會持續下去，我想它會持續到今年剩餘時間，然後明年就會消失，如果 - 通過該計劃，不是嗎？

That's right, George, right? Once we do the formal closeout, we'll have to do a curtailment assessment for accounting purposes. That could be positive or negative. That will be noncash. But as we move into 2022, the Belfast site will be on a more traditional plan, consistent with Presswick and our U.S. sites.

是的，喬治，對吧？一旦我們完成正式的收尾工作，我們就必須出於會計目的進行縮減評估。這可能是積極的，也可能是消極的。那將是非現金。但隨著進入 2022 年，貝爾法斯特工廠將採用更傳統的計劃，與普萊斯威克和我們的美國工廠保持一致。

The next question will come from Kristine Liwag with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題將由摩根士丹利的克里斯汀·利瓦格（Kristine Liwag）提出。

On the 787, can you give more details on exactly what the rework entails? Do you have to take it apart, remanufacture pieces? And how involved is the testing in rework? And how long does it take?

對於 787，您能否提供更多有關返工具體內容的詳細資訊？需要把它拆開，重新製造嗎？測驗在返工中的參與程度如何？需要多長時間？

Right. Well, the rework involves essentially replacing a part. And so Boeing and FAA will decide on the final fix, and then we'll support it as necessary and do the rework. But we've already defined what the fix is in terms of being able to provide a replacement part. And the rework -- again, these things always evolve. So it starts off, it might take 8 or 10 days to do the first one, and then it gets progressively smaller as the team gets more experienced going forward. But that's the current situation. We've already started it. We've already completed the first few units. And we're starting to get down the learning curve as we speak.

正確的。嗯，返工本質上是更換一個零件。因此，波音和美國聯邦航空管理局將決定最終的修復方案，然後我們將根據需要提供支援並進行返工。但我們已經定義了修復的內容，也就是能夠提供替換零件。還有返工——再說一次，這些事情總是在發展。因此，一開始，第一個任務可能需要 8 或 10 天的時間來完成，然後隨著團隊的經驗變得越來越豐富，它會逐漸變小。但這就是目前的情況。我們已經開始了。我們已經完成了前幾個單元。正如我們所說，我們開始降低學習曲線。

I see. And a follow-up on the 787, too. Since the program is at a unit cash loss, are you better off with fewer units so you're losing less cash? Or does not having economies of scale hurt you more?

我懂了。還有 787 的後續產品。由於該計劃存在單位現金損失，那麼單位數量越少，現金損失就越少，您的情況是否會更好？或者沒有規模經濟對你的傷害更大嗎？

It's the former. It is in a cash loss position. So the fewer units we deliver for Spirit, that means our cash is better.

是前者。它處於現金虧損狀態。因此，我們為 Spirit 交付的產品越少，這意味著我們的現金就越好。

Our next question will come from Noah Poponak with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題將來自高盛的諾亞波波納克。

Tom, so I just wanted to try to ask you with everything you know and everything you've discussed on 787, if you're willing to make an estimate as to approximately when you're far enough along and rework is done such that deliveries can resume?

湯姆，所以我只是想嘗試詢問您所知道的一切以及您在 787 上討論過的所有內容，您是否願意對大約何時進行足夠遠的估計並完成返工以便交付可以恢復嗎？

Well, I won't be able to give you that information. I mean, really, Boeing is going to make that determination probably in conjunction with the FAA. We're focused really on the rework that we do, and then Boeing will take that into account to determine when the deliveries will begin. But as I said, we've identified our fix and we have started to perform that rework. And I think Boeing would be able to give you the best indication about when deliveries will actually resume.

好吧，我無法向您提供該資訊。我的意思是，實際上，波音公司可能會與美國聯邦航空局一起做出這項決定。我們真正專注於我們所做的返工，然後波音公司將考慮到這一點來確定何時開始交付。但正如我所說，我們已經確定了修復方案，並開始進行返工。我認為波音公司能夠為您提供有關何時真正恢復交付的最佳指示。

Okay. And then Mark or Samantha, you mentioned in the discussion of next year's cash flow, Mark, I think the wording you used was initiatives behind the scenes. Those -- that sounded new. Are those new things you're working in your operational drumbeat? And if so, could you maybe detail what you found or what you're working on there?

好的。然後馬克或薩曼莎，你在討論明年的現金流時提到，馬克，我認為你使用的措辭是幕後的舉措。那些——聽起來很新鮮。您正在進行的這些新工作是否符合您的營運節奏？如果是這樣，您能否詳細說明您發現了什麼或您正在那裡做什麼？

No, they're really -- maybe I gave the impression that these are some new ideas that we've come up. I can tell you, we have a very strong operational cadence. We have 4 or 5 different specific cost reduction efforts around the Boeing programs, the Airbus programs, our organization, our infrastructure, along with supply chain and some of our growth initiatives. The only point I'm making is behind the scenes here, we're doing, I think, a really good job of managing our costs. And we're working across all of our businesses as it relates to how do we optimize, improve productivity, lean. Tom has talked before about the variety of automation and digital-type projects that we have. All of those things are being worked behind the scenes. And I truly believe as we move back up in rate, we're going to be more cost competitive or more cost efficient than we were previous to the higher rate breaks. And so all of that should contribute to an improvement in our cash generation as compared to where we were before.

不，它們確實——也許我給人的印像是這些是我們提出的一些新想法。我可以告訴你，我們有非常強大的營運節奏。我們圍繞著波音專案、空中巴士專案、我們的組織、我們的基礎設施、供應鏈和我們的一些成長計劃，開展了 4 到 5 個不同的具體成本削減工作。我想說的唯一一點是在幕後，我認為我們在管理成本方面做得非常好。我們正在所有業務領域開展工作，因為這涉及我們如何優化、提高生產力和精益。湯姆之前談到我們擁有的各種自動化和數位類型專案。所有這些事情都在幕後進行。我堅信，隨著利率的回升，我們將比利率下調之前更具成本競爭力或更具成本效益。因此，與以前相比，所有這些都應該有助於改善我們的現金產生能力。

Our next question comes from Michael Ciarmoli with SunTrust.

我們的下一個問題來自 SunTrust 的 Michael Ciarmoli。

As it relates to the 787, you talked about the overhead absorption. How do we think about the excess capacity costs? I think you were targeting to maybe reduce that by 30% last year. Does that become a little bit more challenging just given the lower rates and kind of how you're going to have to manage this program?

由於與 787 相關，您談到了開銷吸收。我們如何看待產能過剩成本？我認為去年你們的目標是減少 30%。考慮到較低的費率以及您將如何管理該計劃，這是否會變得更具挑戰性？

It puts a little bit more pressure on our overall cost structure here, more specifically in Wichita. But just for the sake of clarity, our excess capacity costs are really tied to what I'll call really kind of 3 specific areas: it's the 737 program because we're expecting to get back to 52 aircraft per month; it's our A320 program because we have a line of sight to go back up to, hopefully, 60 a month on the A320 program; and then the expectations are from our customer on the A320 wing program that we will be producing at much higher rates in the future. And so those are the 3 programs that really generate the excess costs and the $47 million that we reported in the second quarter here. I will tell you, as we go up in rate and we continue to manage our costs, you're seeing improvement in that excess cost. In the first quarter, we incurred $67 million worth of costs, and it's $20 million lower here in the second quarter. And that's a combination of higher production rates as well as our continued efforts on making our costs better aligned with our current production rates.

這給我們的整體成本結構帶來了更大的壓力，更具體地說是在威奇托。但為了清楚起見，我們的過剩產能成本實際上與我所謂的 3 個特定領域相關：737 計劃，因為我們預計每月恢復 52 架飛機；這是我們的 A320 計劃，因為我們希望 A320 計劃能夠恢復到每月 60 架；然後我們的客戶對 A320 機翼專案的期望是我們未來將以更高的速度生產。這些是真正產生超額成本的 3 個項目，以及我們在第二季報告的 4700 萬美元。我會告訴你，隨著我們提高費率並繼續管理成本，你會看到超額成本有所改善。第一季度，我們產生了價值 6,700 萬美元的成本，第二季減少了 2,000 萬美元。這是更高的生產力以及我們不斷努力使我們的成本更好地與當前的生產力相結合的結果。

Good step-down in the second half just on the narrow-body volume increases?

下半年好降壓只是窄體成交量的增加？

Exactly. We'll see lower excess costs in the back half of the year, and I would expect significantly lower costs in 2022.

確切地。我們將在今年下半年看到超額成本降低，我預計 2022 年成本將大幅降低。

Perfect. And just for clarification, the part in question on the 787, is that your design? Is it a build to print? Or does the supplier own the design on that part?

完美的。澄清一下，787 上有問題的零件是您設計的嗎？它是要列印的建置嗎？或是供應商是否擁有該零件的設計？

Spirit has design authority on the part, but it was actually designed before Spirit existed.

神靈有設計權，但實際上它是在神靈存在之前就被設計出來的。

Last question will come from Peter Arment with Baird.

最後一個問題將由 Peter Arment 和 Baird 提出。

Question just, Mark, on CapEx. Your question -- just regarding whether we see that start to trend back up as we get into '22. I know you'd been previously running at around 3% or 4% of sales. Is that still a good level to think about? Or are you getting some efficiencies on just your CapEx spending?

馬克，問題只是關於資本支出。你的問題——只是關於當我們進入 22 世紀時我們是否看到這種趨勢開始回升。我知道您之前的銷售額約為 3% 或 4%。這仍然是一個值得思考的好層次嗎？或者您僅在資本支出方面獲得了一些效率？

Thanks, Peter. Specific to CapEx, and I think we've talked about this on a few earlier calls, over the last couple of years as production rates have climbed essentially across all of our platforms, that's required significant capital investment from a tooling, from an infrastructure, a lot of the capital that we've expended are on highly automated programs like the A350 and 787. And so the real benefit that we're seeing, we are managing our CapEx tightly in these very challenging times. But as we move forward into '22 and '23, as production volumes come back up, we are not going to have to spend and invest the type of capital CapEx that we have historically. It will be our normal maintenance CapEx and some CapEx that go support our diversification efforts.

謝謝，彼得。具體到資本支出，我想我們在之前的幾次電話會議中已經討論過這一點，在過去的幾年裡，隨著我們所有平台的生產率基本上攀升，這需要來自工具、基礎設施的大量資本投資，我們花費的大量資金都花在了 A350 和 787 等高度自動化的項目上。因此，我們看到的真正好處是，我們在這個充滿挑戰的時期嚴格管理我們的資本支出。但隨著我們進入“22 年”和“23 年”，隨著產量的回升，我們將不必花費和投資我們歷史上擁有的資本支出類型。這將是我們的正常維護資本支出和一些支持我們多元化努力的資本支出。

As we win organic work on the defense on the aftermarket side, there'll be some capital that will be required for that. But really, I'm expecting in 2022, maybe a tick up higher than where we are now. But we've indicated we're looking at around $150 million of CapEx this year. And so over the next couple of years, we're going to keep a very tight leash around the CapEx, mainly because the business isn't requiring it. And so what you're seeing now, I think, over the next couple of years will be fairly consistent. And that will also help us as we think about what our cash flow generation is going to be in '22 and '23.

當我們贏得售後市場防禦的有機工作時，將需要一些資金。但實際上，我預計到 2022 年，價格可能會比現在更高。但我們已經表示，今年我們預計資本支出約為 1.5 億美元。因此，在接下來的幾年裡，我們將對資本支出保持非常嚴格的控制，主要是因為業務不需要它。因此，我認為，您現在所看到的情況在未來幾年內將相當一致。當我們思考 22 和 23 年現金流量的產生情況時，這也將有助於我們。

Ladies and gentlemen, this will conclude our question-and-answer session. And now the conference has concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

女士們先生們，我們的問答環節到此結束。現在會議已經結束了。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。