Spirit AeroSystems Holdings Inc (SPR) 2020 Q3 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. Third Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Cole, and I'll be your coordinator today. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the presentation over to Ryan Avey, Director of Investor Relations and Financial Planning and Analysis. Please proceed.

    早安,女士們、先生們,歡迎參加 Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. 2020 年第三季收益電話會議。我叫科爾,今天我將擔任你們的協調員。 (操作員說明)請注意,正在記錄此事件。我現在想將演講交給投資者關係及財務規劃與分析總監 Ryan Avey。請繼續。

  • Ryan Avey - Director of IR

    Ryan Avey - Director of IR

  • Thank you, Cole, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Spirit's Third Quarter 2020 Earnings Call. I'm Ryan Avey, Director of Investor Relations and Financial Planning and Analysis. And with me today are Spirit's President and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Gentile; and Spirit's Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Mark Suchinski. After opening comments by Tom and Mark regarding our performance and outlook, we will take your questions. (Operator Instructions)

    謝謝你,科爾,大家早安。歡迎參加 Spirit 2020 年第三季財報電話會議。我是瑞安‧艾維 (Ryan Avey),投資者關係及財務規劃與分析總監。今天和我在一起的還有 Spirit 的總裁兼執行長 Tom Gentile; Spirit 的高級副總裁兼財務長 Mark Suchinski。在湯姆和馬克對我們的業績和前景發表評論後,我們將回答您的問題。 (操作員說明)

  • Before we begin, I need to remind you that any projections or goals we may include in our discussion today are likely to involve risks, which are detailed in our earnings release and our SEC filings and in the forward-looking statement at the end of this web presentation. In addition, we refer you to our earnings release and presentation for disclosures and reconciliation of non-GAAP measures when discussing our results. And as a reminder, you can follow today's broadcast and slide presentation on our website at investor.spiritaero.com.

    在我們開始之前,我需要提醒您,我們今天討論中可能包含的任何預測或目標都可能涉及風險,這些風險在我們的收益發布和SEC 文件以及本新聞稿末尾的前瞻性聲明中進行了詳細說明。網路示範。此外,在討論我們的績效時,我們建議您參閱我們的收益發布和簡報,以了解非公認會計準則措施的揭露和調節。提醒一下,您可以在我們的網站 Investor.spiritaero.com 上關註今天的廣播和幻燈片演示。

  • With that, I would like to turn the call over to our Chief Executive Officer, Tom Gentile.

    說到這裡,我想將電話轉給我們的執行長 Tom Gentile。

  • Thomas C. Gentile - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas C. Gentile - President, CEO & Director

  • Thank you, Ryan, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Spirit's Third Quarter 2020 Earnings Call. The global aviation industry continues to struggle with the historic reduction in air traffic caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, which has created significant challenges for both airlines and aircraft manufacturers. As the pandemic unfolded, we quickly took actions to reduce costs and preserve liquidity.

    謝謝瑞安,大家早安。歡迎參加 Spirit 2020 年第三季財報電話會議。全球航空業持續努力應對新冠肺炎 (COVID-19) 大流行造成的航空交通量歷史性減少,這給航空公司和飛機製造商帶來了重大挑戰。隨著疫情的發展,我們迅速採取行動降低成本並保持流動性。

  • As we mentioned in last quarter's call, we have implemented about $1 billion of annualized cost-reduction actions or a 40% reduction in the nonmaterial base. We've also made the very difficult decision to reduce the headcount of our commercial aviation programs by 44%, which is more than 8,000 people. Most recently, we announced the closure of our McAlester, Oklahoma site, which does 3-axis machining and assembly for Boeing programs. Most of the work from McAlester will now move to our Tulsa and Wichita facilities.

    正如我們在上個季度的電話會議中提到的,我們已經實施了約 10 億美元的年度成本削減行動,即非物質基礎減少了 40%。我們也做出了一個非常艱難的決定,將商業航空專案的員工人數減少 44%,即 8,000 多人。最近,我們宣布關閉俄克拉荷馬州麥卡萊斯特工廠,該工廠為波音項目提供 3 軸加工和組裝。麥卡萊斯特的大部分工作現在將轉移到我們的塔爾薩和威奇托工廠。

  • Our biggest program is the 737 MAX, and we have been encouraged by the news on the continued progress Boeing has been making with the FAA and global regulators to return the aircraft to service. Completion of the certification flights and joint report from the United States, Canada, Brazil and the European Union Civil Aviation Authorities, which was incorporated in the FAA's draft Flight Standardization Board report for all key milestones for the program.

    我們最大的項目是 737 MAX,波音與美國聯邦航空局 (FAA) 和全球監管機構在使飛機恢復運營方面不斷取得進展的消息令我們深受鼓舞。完成美國、加拿大、巴西和歐盟民航局的認證飛行和聯合報告,該報告已納入美國聯邦航空局關於該計畫所有關鍵里程碑的飛行標準化委員會報告草案。

  • We are a proud partner on the MAX and make 70% of the structure. We are looking forward to seeing the airplane safely back in service. For 2021, we are planning 737 production deliveries to support Boeing's production requirements. Boeing has indicated that they will be at a rate of 31 aircraft per month by early 2022. Through 2021, we also plan to reduce the current buffer inventory of 128 737 shipsets. We will lag Boeing's production rates by about 5 units per month and plan to decrease the inventory of shipsets to a permanent buffer of 20 to 25 units. The production rates on the other programs for Boeing and Airbus remain as they have reported.

    我們是 MAX 的值得驕傲的合作夥伴,並且製造了 70% 的結構。我們期待看到這架飛機安全地重新投入使用。 2021 年,我們計劃生產交付 737 架,以支援波音的生產需求。波音表示,到 2022 年初,他們的飛機數量將達到每月 31 架。到 2021 年,我們還計劃減少目前 128,737 架飛機的緩衝庫存。我們每個月的生產率將落後波音約 5 艘,並計劃將船舶庫存減少至 20 至 25 艘的永久緩衝。波音和空中巴士其他項目的生產力與他們報告的一樣。

  • Based on our forecasted production, we estimate our free cash flow for 2021 will be negative, but significantly improved from 2020's usage. This estimate of 2021 cash usage does not include the Bombardier assets that we just acquired or cash tax benefits, both of which will be positive. We expect free cash flow to be positive in 2022.

    根據我們預測的產量,我們估計 2021 年的自由現金流將為負,但較 2020 年的使用情況顯著改善。對 2021 年現金使用量的估計不包括我們剛剛收購的龐巴迪資產或現金稅收優惠,這兩者都將為正。我們預計 2022 年自由現金流將為正值。

  • Over the last few months, 3 actions have helped improve our overall liquidity position. First, in late September, we mutually terminated our agreement to acquire Asco, eliminating a capital outlay of $420 million. While we were disappointed that the deal did not close, we have tremendous respect for Asco, and we'll continue working with them as a valued supplier. Second, we also took actions to restructure our balance sheet and improve our financial flexibility. We repaid our term loans of $430 million during the quarter and terminated the 2018 credit facility on October 5. We also raised $900 million of new secured debt.

    過去幾個月,三項行動幫助改善了我們的整體流動性狀況。首先,9月下旬,我們共同終止了收購 Asco 的協議,消除了 4.2 億美元的資本支出。雖然我們對交易未能完成感到失望,但我們非常尊重 Asco,我們將繼續與他們作為有價值的供應商合作。其次,我們也採取行動重組資產負債表,提高財務彈性。我們在本季償還了 4.3 億美元的定期貸款,並於 10 月 5 日終止了 2018 年信貸安排。我們還籌集了 9 億美元的新擔保債務。

  • And third, we recently closed the acquisition of select Bombardier assets for $865 million, which is 20% reduction from the original enterprise value. The deal consists of a $275 million cash payment to the sellers, a 45% reduction from the original cash consideration of $500 million. The $865 million deal value includes certain liabilities for pension and government incentives. These 3 actions result in an adjusted Q3 liquidity position of $2 billion. Mark will provide further details a little bit later.

    第三,我們最近以 8.65 億美元完成了對龐巴迪精選資產的收購,這比原始企業價值減少了 20%。該交易包括向賣方支付 2.75 億美元現金,比最初的 5 億美元現金對價減少了 45%。 8.65 億美元的交易價值包括退休金和政府激勵措施的某些負債。這 3 項行動導致第三季流動性部位調整為 20 億美元。馬克稍後將提供更多詳細資訊。

  • Now that we've closed the Bombardier acquisitions, we are thrilled to welcome our newest colleagues in Belfast, Casablanca and Dallas. The additions help accelerate our strategic transformation by providing more Airbus content, aftermarket business, defense and low-cost country operations. The Airbus content includes the composite wing for the A220, which leverages a state-of-the-art fabrication process known as resin transfer infusion. As a smaller narrow-body aircraft, the A220 will benefit from the quicker recovery of domestic air travel around the world after COVID-19. In general, Spirit will benefit from this higher domestic demand, since 85% of our unit backlog are narrow-body aircraft.

    現在我們已經完成了對龐巴迪的收購,我們很高興地歡迎貝爾法斯特、卡薩布蘭卡和達拉斯的新同事。這些新增內容透過提供更多空中巴士內容、售後市場業務、國防和低成本國家運營,有助於加速我們的策略轉型。空中巴士的內容包括 A220 的複合材料機翼,它採用了稱為樹脂轉移灌注的最先進的製造流程。作為一款較小的窄體飛機,A220 將受益於 COVID-19 疫情後全球國內航空旅行的更快恢復。總體而言,精神航空將受益於國內需求的增加,因為我們 85% 的積壓飛機都是窄體飛機。

  • The acquisition also significantly increases our aftermarket and maintenance, repair and overhaul business. Their focus on Airbus repairs and presence in the European market will complement Spirit's existing expertise with Boeing repairs and presence in the U.S. Spirit also secures exclusivity on Bombardier's business jet programs and is now one of their largest suppliers.

    此次收購也顯著增加了我們的售後以及維護、修理和大修業務。他們對空中巴士維修和歐洲市場業務的關注將補充 Spirit 現有的波音維修專業知識和在美國的業務。JV 也確保了龐巴迪公務機專案的排他性,目前是其最大的供應商之一。

  • And we expand our Rolls-Royce relationship with work on the BR710 and Trent 700 engine nacelle components. In addition, the acquisition includes a world-class manufacturing facility in Morocco with a highly-trained workforce located in an aerospace manufacturing cluster. The facility has a wide range of experience with flight controls, engine nacelles and fuselage sections and has an extremely competitive cost structure.

    我們還透過開發 BR710 和 Trent 700 引擎短艙組件來擴展我們與勞斯萊斯的合作關係。此外,此次收購還包括位於摩洛哥的世界級製造工廠,該工廠在航空航太製造集群中擁有訓練有素的員工隊伍。該工廠在飛行控制、發動機短艙和機身部分方面擁有豐富的經驗,並具有極具競爭力的成本結構。

  • Finally, the Bombardier acquisition also establishes a robust path for Spirit to participate in the evaluation and development efforts for the U.K.'s next-generation Tempest fighter program. Spirit's leading aerostructures, technology capability, along with a larger footprint in the U.K. is well suited for us to become a strong Team Tempest industrial partner. This opportunity fits nicely into Spirit's overall strategy of expanding our defense business, which, by the way, realized a 20% growth rate in 2020 revenue. We expect more than 15% growth in our defense business in 2021.

    最後,對龐巴迪的收購也為 Spirit 參與英國下一代「暴風雨」戰鬥機計畫的評估和開發工作奠定了堅實的基礎。 Spirit 領先的航空結構、技術能力以及在英國的更大足跡非常適合我們成為 Tempest 團隊強大的產業合作夥伴。這個機會非常適合 Spirit 擴大國防業務的整體策略,順便說一句,該業務在 2020 年實現了 20% 的收入成長率。我們預計 2021 年我們的國防業務將成長 15% 以上。

  • In summary, the acquisition of the Bombardier aerostructures assets accelerated the diversification of our customer base. In 2021, based on preliminary estimates, we expect Boeing commercial revenue to account for 45% of our total revenue and Airbus at 24%, defense at 15%, business and regional jets at 8% and aftermarket at 8%.

    總之,收購龐巴迪航空結構資產加速了我們客戶群的多元化。根據初步估計,到 2021 年,我們預計波音商業收入將占我們總收入的 45%,空中巴士佔 24%,國防佔 15%,公務機和支線飛機佔 8%,售後市場佔 8%。

  • The revised enterprise value from the Bombardier acquisition of $865 million represents a multiple of 8.8 -- 11.8x expected 2020 EBITDA, adjusted to remove onetime items. Our plan is to generate synergies in a number of areas, including the supply chain, facility consolidation and overhead reduction over the next 3 years. After taking into account the expected synergies of 6% of revenue, the adjusted EBITDA multiple will be 7.3x. Our preliminary estimate of 2021 revenue for the Bombardier assets that we just acquired is between $700 million and $800 million.

    收購龐巴迪後修正後的企業價值為 8.65 億美元,是 2020 年預期 EBITDA 的 8.8 倍至 11.8 倍(經過調整以刪除一次性專案)。我們的計劃是在未來 3 年內在多個領域產生協同效應,包括供應鏈、設施整合和減少管理費用。考慮6%收入的預期綜效後,調整後的EBITDA倍數將為7.3倍。我們對剛收購的龐巴迪資產 2021 年收入的初步估計在 7 億至 8 億美元之間。

  • One other highlight for the quarter was the work we did to manufacture ventilators in support of the battle against COVID-19. After building a state-of-the-art production facility, logistics system and global supply chain, the Spirit team, working with our partner, Vyaire, successfully delivered 20,000 critical care ventilators to U.S. customers and customers in more than 20 different countries. The contract was on a cost-plus basis and was accretive to our results. Spirit is very proud of our partnership with Vyaire to meet the demand for life-saving ventilators around the world.

    本季度的另一個亮點是我們為支持對抗 COVID-19 而製造呼吸機所做的工作。在建立了最先進的生產設施、物流系統和全球供應鏈後,Spirit 團隊與我們的合作夥伴 Vyaire 合作,成功向美國客戶和 20 多個不同國家的客戶交付了 20,000 台重症監護呼吸器。該合約是在成本加成的基礎上簽訂的,並且增加了我們的業績。 Spirit 對我們與 Vyaire 的合作關係感到非常自豪,以滿足世界各地對救生呼吸機的需求。

  • With that, I'll turn it over to Mark to take you through our detailed third quarter results. Mark?

    接下來,我將把它交給馬克,帶您了解我們詳細的第三季業績。標記?

  • Mark J. Suchinski - Senior VP & CFO

    Mark J. Suchinski - Senior VP & CFO

  • Thank you, Tom, and good morning, everyone. I hope everyone is doing well and staying healthy. As Tom mentioned in his opening remarks, Spirit as well as the overall aviation industry are in the early stages of a multiyear recovery, and we expect to continue to face near-term challenges. Throughout this year, our teams have responded well to the changes brought about by the COVID pandemic.

    謝謝你,湯姆,大家早安。我希望每個人都做得很好並保持健康。正如湯姆在開場白中提到的那樣,精神航空以及整個航空業正處於多年復甦的早期階段,我們預計近期將繼續面臨挑戰。今年以來,我們的團隊很好地應對了新冠疫情帶來的變化。

  • We have made significant adjustments in order to adapt our cost structure to our customers' lower production levels, and we'll continue to adjust with the goal of emerging as a stronger company. With our long-term growth and diversification strategy and focus, we are pleased to have closed on the acquisition of select assets of Bombardier. This acquisition is key to our strategic transformation efforts and the additional work content with Airbus and aftermarket will position us well going into the future.

    我們已經進行了重大調整,以使我們的成本結構適應客戶較低的生產水平,並且我們將繼續進行調整,以成為更強大的公司。憑藉我們的長期成長和多元化策略及重點,我們很高興完成對龐巴迪精選資產的收購。此次收購是我們策略轉型的關鍵,空中巴士和售後市場的額外工作內容將為我們的未來做好準備。

  • Now let's move to our third quarter results. Please turn to Slide 4. Revenue for the quarter was $806 million, down 58% from the same quarter last year. This reduction was primarily due to the lower production rate on the 737 MAX resulting from the continued grounding of the program and the significant impact of COVID-19 pandemic. Production rates across all of our commercial programs continue to be negatively impacted by COVID-19. We delivered 15 737 shipsets in the quarter compared to 154 in the same period of 2019. Overall deliveries decreased to 206 shipsets compared to 437 shipsets in the same quarter of last year.

    現在讓我們來看看第三季的業績。請參閱投影片 4。該季度營收為 8.06 億美元,比去年同期下降 58%。這一減少主要是由於該項目的持續停飛以及 COVID-19 大流行的重大影響導致 737 MAX 的生產力下降。我們所有商業項目的生產力繼續受到 COVID-19 的負面影響。本季我們交付了 15,737 艘船,而 2019 年同期為 154 艘。總體交付量從去年同期的 437 艘減少至 206 艘。

  • Let's now turn to earnings per share on Slide 5. In the quarter, we reported earnings per share of negative $1.50 per share compared to $1.26 per share in the same quarter last year. Adjusted EPS was negative $1.34 per share compared to positive EPS of $1.38 in the same period of 2019. Adjusted EPS excludes the impacts of the acquisitions, restructuring costs and the noncash voluntary retirement plan charges.

    現在讓我們轉向幻燈片 5 上的每股收益。本季度,我們公佈的每股收益為負 1.50 美元,而去年同期為每股 1.26 美元。調整後每股收益為負 1.34 美元,而 2019 年同期為正每股收益 1.38 美元。調整後每股收益不包括收購、重組成本和非現金自願退休計畫費用的影響。

  • The third quarter operating margins declined compared to the same period last year as a result of costs incurred related to the low rate of MAX production, including excess capacity cost of $73 million as well as lower production rates across almost all of our commercial programs due to the impacts of COVID-19.

    與去年同期相比,第三季營業利潤率有所下降,原因是 MAX 生產力低下產生的成本,包括 7,300 萬美元的產能過剩成本,以及我們幾乎所有商業項目的生產力下降。 COVID-19 的影響。

  • For the quarter, we recognized restructuring expenses of $20 million for cost alignment and headcount reductions as well as forward loss charges of $128 million primarily driven by the lower future production rates announced on the 787 and A350 programs. I'd also like to note that our total segment operating margin, normalized to exclude changes in estimates, improved significantly over the last quarter. This quarter-over-quarter improvement demonstrates the effectiveness of the many cost-reduction actions we have implemented this year. We expect to continue to recognize these benefits as we move into the future.

    本季度,我們確認了 2000 萬美元的重組費用,用於成本調整和裁員,以及 1.28 億美元的遠期損失費用,這主要是由於 787 和 A350 項目宣布的未來生產力較低所致。我還想指出,我們的部門總營業利潤率(經過標準化以排除估計變化)比上個季度顯著改善。這一季度環比的改善證明了我們今年實施的許多成本削減行動的有效性。我們期望在邁向未來時繼續認識到這些好處。

  • During the third quarter, we evaluated additional schedule and demand information received from our customers as well as other market and analyst data, and as a result, adjusted the results on the 787 and A350 programs to include a lower rate of production for a longer duration compared to our previous forecast. This resulted in an incremental fixed cost absorption on the 787 and A350 programs. And as a result, we recorded forward losses of $65 million on the 787 program and $45 million on the A350 programs during the quarter. Additionally, we recognized $18 million of forward losses on other programs, including the 747 and 76 program, which was primarily due to production rate decreases on this 777 program.

    在第三季度,我們評估了從客戶那裡收到的額外時間表和需求資訊以及其他市場和分析師數據,並因此調整了 787 和 A350 項目的結果,以包括較長時間內的較低生產率與我們之前的預測相比。這導致 787 和 A350 項目的固定成本逐漸吸收。因此,本季我們在 787 專案上記錄了 6,500 萬美元的遠期損失,在 A350 專案上記錄了 4,500 萬美元的遠期損失。此外,我們也確認了其他項目(包括 747 和 76 項目)的 1,800 萬美元遠期損失,這主要是由於 777 項目的生產力下降。

  • Our year-to-date tax rate was approximately 38%. As discussed last quarter, as a result of the CARES Act, we can carry back our anticipated 2020 net operating loss to years where we paid tax. This has created a favorable year-to-date tax rate compared to our expected normalized rate.

    我們年初至今的稅率約為 38%。如上季所討論的,由於 CARES 法案的實施,我們可以將預期的 2020 年淨營運虧損轉回我們納稅的年份。與我們預期的標準化稅率相比,這創造了一個有利的年初至今稅率。

  • Now turning to free cash flow on Slide 6. Free cash flow for the quarter was a use of $72 million compared to a source of $214 million in the same period of 2019. This year-over-year decrease is primarily due to the negative impact of working capital requirements and significantly lower deliveries across all of our commercial programs, partially offset by favorable cash tax.

    現在轉向幻燈片 6 上的自由現金流。本季的自由現金流使用了 7,200 萬美元,而 2019 年同期的來源為 2.14 億美元。這一同比下降主要是由於負面影響營運資金需求的減少以及我們所有商業計劃的交付量顯著降低,部分被優惠的現金稅所抵消。

  • The third quarter free cash flow was also impacted by $17 million of restructuring costs as well as $11 million of cash used to unwind the term loan interest rate swaps. Additionally, the third quarter of 2019 free cash flow included $123 million cash advance received as part of the April 2019 MOA reached with the Boeing Corporation.

    第三季自由現金流也受到 1,700 萬美元重組成本以及用於解除定期貸款利率掉期的 1,100 萬美元現金的影響。此外,2019 年第三季的自由現金流包括作為 2019 年 4 月與波音公司達成的 MOA 的一部分收到的 1.23 億美元預付現金。

  • Free cash flow improved by about $175 million from the last quarter. This quarter-over-quarter improvement was a result of the benefit from the cost-reduction actions we have taken throughout the year, a decrease in our working capital requirements as well as some favorability from the timing of certain deliveries in the quarter. We anticipate cash flow use in the fourth quarter to be slightly higher than what we have recognized in this quarter primarily due to higher interest on additional debt and some favorable timing of deliveries that are not expected to repeat in the fourth quarter.

    自由現金流較上季增加約 1.75 億美元。這一季度環比的改善得益於我們全年採取的成本削減行動、營運資金需求的減少以及本季某些交付時間的一些優惠。我們預計第四季度的現金流使用量將略高於我們在本季度所確認的水平,這主要是由於額外債務的利息增加以及預計第四季度不會重複的一些有利的交付時機。

  • Excluding Bombardier, we anticipate full year cash used in operating activities to be around $700 million to $800 million, with approximately $120 million of capital expenditures. In other words, we expect free cash flow for 2020 to be around $800 million to $900 million of outflow, which is in line with our expectations and our commitments to you in the last quarter. We are quickly diving into the Bombardier integration and analyzing the appropriate structure for the business. There will be a onetime cash outflow of $35 million in the fourth quarter relating to restructuring activity.

    不包括龐巴迪,我們預計全年經營活動所用現金約為 7 億至 8 億美元,其中資本支出約為 1.2 億美元。換句話說,我們預計 2020 年的自由現金流流出量約為 8 億至 9 億美元,這符合我們的預期以及上季對您的承諾。我們正在快速深入龐巴迪整合並分析適合業務的結構。第四季與重組活動相關的一次性現金流出將達到 3,500 萬美元。

  • Finally, as Tom mentioned in his remarks, our 2021 free cash flow will continue to be negative, but significantly improved from 2020, excluding cash tax benefits. We are expecting a cash tax benefit of approximately $300 million as a result of the carryback permitted by the CARES Act and anticipate receiving a majority of this benefit in 2021. This will provide cash benefits in 2021 above and beyond our year-over-year operational cash improvement.

    最後,正如湯姆在演講中提到的,我們2021年的自由現金流將繼續為負,但較2020年有顯著改善,不包括現金稅收優惠。由於《CARES 法案》允許的結轉,我們預計將獲得約 3 億美元的現金稅收優惠,並預計在 2021 年獲得大部分優惠。這將在 2021 年提供超出我們同比運營水平的現金優惠。現金改善。

  • Let's now turn to cash and debt balances on Slide 7. During the quarter, we announced the termination of the Asco acquisition along with new financing activity. We raised $900 million of first lien senior secured debt, including $400 million Term Loan B and $500 million in notes due in 2025. In connection with the closing of this new debt, we terminated the existing senior secured credit facility, including the revolver.

    現在讓我們轉向投影片 7 上的現金和債務餘額。在本季度,我們宣布終止對 Asco 的收購以及新的融資活動。我們籌集了9 億美元的第一留置權優先擔保債務,包括4 億美元的定期貸款B 和2025 年到期的5 億美元票據。在結清這筆新債務時,我們終止了現有的高級擔保信貸安排,包括左輪手槍。

  • Prior to the termination, on September 30, we paid off the term loans that had a remaining balance at the end of the second quarter of approximately $430 million. This financing activity, along with the Asco acquisition termination and Bombardier price reduction, improved our overall liquidity position by $1.2 billion and provides us with additional balance sheet and operational flexibility.

    在終止之前,即 9 月 30 日,我們還清了第二季末剩餘餘額約為 4.3 億美元的定期貸款。這項融資活動,加上 Asco 收購終止和龐巴迪降價,使我們的整體流動性狀況改善了 12 億美元,並為我們提供了額外的資產負債表和營運靈活性。

  • We ended the quarter with $1.4 billion of cash and $3 billion of debt. These balances reflect the termination of the prior credit facility, including the payoff of the term loans, but the cash and debt balances do not reflect the $900 million of new senior secured debt as those funds were not received until just after the end of the quarter. Including the capital raise and cash used for the Bombardier acquisition, the adjusted cash balance at the end of the quarter would be $2 billion. The debt balance adjusted for the $900 million debt raise and -- would result in a total debt balance of $3.9 billion. We believe our cash balance provides ample liquidity to navigate the uncertainty within our industry.

    本季末,我們擁有 14 億美元現金和 30 億美元債務。這些餘額反映了先前信貸安排的終止,包括定期貸款的償還,但現金和債務餘額並不反映 9 億美元的新優先擔保債務,因為這些資金直到本季度末才收到。包括用於收購龐巴迪的融資和現金,本季末調整後的現金餘額將為 20 億美元。根據 9 億美元債務籌集調整後的債務餘額將導致債務餘額總額達到 39 億美元。我們相信我們的現金餘額提供了充足的流動性來應對行業內的不確定性。

  • Now let's turn to our segment performance on Slide 8. Fuselage segment revenue in the quarter was $421 million, down compared to the same period of 2019 primarily due to lower production volumes on the 737, 787 and A350 programs. Operating margin for the quarter was negative 23% compared to 11% in the same period of the prior year. This decrease was primarily a result of forward losses recognized on the 787 and A350 programs and lower profit recognized on the 737 program, including excess capacity cost of $42 million.

    現在讓我們轉向幻燈片 8 中的細分市場表現。本季機身細分市場收入為 4.21 億美元,與 2019 年同期相比有所下降,主要是由於 737、787 和 A350 項目的產量下降。本季營業利益率為負 23%,而上年同期為 11%。這一下降主要是由於 787 和 A350 項目確認的遠期損失以及 737 項目確認的利潤較低,包括 4,200 萬美元的超額產能成本。

  • The fuselage segment recorded $9 million of favorable cume catch-up adjustments and $92 million of net forward losses during the quarter. On a normalized basis, after reversing change in estimate impacts, fuselage segment margin improved to negative 3% in the third quarter compared to negative 20% in the second quarter, reflecting the benefits of cost-reduction initiatives we have completed this year.

    機身部分在本季錄得 900 萬美元的有利累積調整和 9,200 萬美元的淨遠期損失。在正常化的基礎上,在扭轉了估計影響的變化後,第三季機身部門利潤率從第二季的負20%改善至負3%,反映了我們今年完成的成本削減措施的好處。

  • Propulsion revenue in the third quarter was $171 million, down compared to the same period last year primarily due to lower production volumes on the 737 and 777 programs. Operating margin for the quarter was negative 9% compared to 21% in the same quarter of 2019.

    第三季推進系統營收為 1.71 億美元,與去年同期相比有所下降,主要是由於 737 和 777 項目的產量下降。該季度的營業利潤率為負 9%,而 2019 年同期為 21%。

  • The segment recorded $5 million of unfavorable cume catch-up adjustments and $15 million of net forward losses. The decrease in segment profitability and operating margin was primarily a result of lower margins recognized in the 737 program, including excess capacity cost of $18 million and the reduction in production rates on the 777 program.

    該部門記錄了 500 萬美元的不利累積追趕調整和 1500 萬美元的淨遠期損失。部門獲利能力和營業利潤率的下降主要是由於 737 項目中確認的利潤率較低,包括 1800 萬美元的產能過剩成本和 777 項目生產力的下降。

  • And finally, Wing revenue was $168 million, down compared to the same period of 2019 primarily due to lower production volumes on the 737, A320 and A350 programs. Operating margin for the quarter was a negative 14% compared to positive 14% in the same quarter of 2019. The segment recorded $22 million of net forward losses. The decrease in segment profitability and operating margin was due to forward losses recognized on the 787 and A350 programs and lower margin recognized on the 737 program, including excess capacity cost of $13 million.

    最後,Wing 收入為 1.68 億美元,與 2019 年同期相比有所下降,主要是由於 737、A320 和 A350 項目的產量下降。與 2019 年同一季度的正 14% 相比,本季的營業利潤率為負 14%。該部門錄得 2,200 萬美元的淨遠期虧損。部門獲利能力和營業利潤率下降的原因是 787 和 A350 項目確認的遠期損失以及 737 項目確認的利潤率較低,其中包括 1300 萬美元的過剩產能成本。

  • In closing, this has been a very challenging year for Spirit. We have taken difficult but necessary actions to adapt to the changes brought on from both the MAX grounding and COVID-19. We continue to assess potential future scenarios to identify areas of opportunity and develop action plans to mitigate risk. The $900 million capital raise, along with the termination of the Asco acquisition and the Bombardier price reduction, strengthens our liquidity position and enhances our ability to address future challenges. Further, we will continue to stay focused on our growth and diversification strategies. The acquisition of Bombardier is a significant event for us, and we look forward to making them a big part of the Spirit team.

    最後,對於 Spirit 來說,今年是非常具有挑戰性的一年。我們已採取困難但必要的行動來適應 MAX 停飛和 COVID-19 帶來的變化。我們繼續評估潛在的未來情景,以確定機會領域並制定行動計劃來降低風險。這次 9 億美元的融資,加上終止對 Asco 的收購和龐巴迪的降價,增強了我們的流動性狀況並增強了我們應對未來挑戰的能力。此外,我們將繼續專注於我們的成長和多元化策略。收購龐巴迪對我們來說是一件重大事件,我們期待讓他們成為 Spirit 團隊的重要組成部分。

  • With that, I will turn it back over to Tom for some closing comments.

    至此,我將把它轉回給湯姆,讓他發表一些結束語。

  • Thomas C. Gentile - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas C. Gentile - President, CEO & Director

  • Thanks, Mark. And I'll make some closing comments before we take questions. Given the significant changes to the global aviation industry resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic, Spirit has taken substantial cost-reduction actions to align to lower levels of production. These actions include the reduction of 8,000 employees on commercial programs, closure of several facilities and the reduction of other nonlabor spend. In total, the annualized cost reduction actions have exceeded $1 billion or 40% of our nonmaterial base. We've also made substantial improvements in our manufacturing processes to improve digitization, automation and process flow.

    謝謝,馬克。在我們回答問題之前,我將做一些總結評論。鑑於新冠肺炎 (COVID-19) 大流行為全球航空業帶來重大變化,Spirit 已採取大幅降低成本的行動,以適應較低的生產水平。這些行動包括減少商業計劃中的 8,000 名員工、關閉多個設施以及減少其他非勞動力支出。整體而言,每年的成本削減行動已超過 10 億美元,占我們非物質基礎的 40%。我們也對製造流程進行了重大改進,以提高數位化、自動化和流程流程。

  • Spirit also took several actions to strengthen our liquidity position. We mutually terminated the Asco acquisition; repaid our term loans and canceled our 2018 credit facility; raised $900 million of first lien secured capital; and closed the acquisition of Bombardier's aerostructures assets for $275 million, a cash reduction of $225 million from the original amount.

    Spirit 也採取了多項行動來加強我們的流動性狀況。我們共同終止了對 Asco 的收購;償還了我們的定期貸款並取消了 2018 年的信貸安排;籌集了 9 億美元的第一留置權擔保資本;並以 2.75 億美元完成了對龐巴迪航空結構資產的收購,現金比原來減少了 2.25 億美元。

  • The Bombardier acquisition also accelerates our strategic transformation with additional work on Airbus programs, aftermarket, business jets, engines and defense. The acquisition also brings low-cost manufacturing operations in Morocco. We have taken these significant steps during a very challenging time in the industry, which will allow us to emerge as a stronger, more diversified company.

    收購龐巴迪也加速了我們在空中巴士專案、售後市場、公務機、引擎和國防方面的額外工作,加速了我們的策略轉型。此次收購也為摩洛哥帶來了低成本的製造業務。我們在行業充滿挑戰的時期採取了這些重大舉措,這將使我們成為一家更強大、更多元化的公司。

  • With that, we'll be happy to take your questions.

    這樣,我們將很樂意回答您的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) And our first question today will come from Myles Walton with UBS.

    (操作員說明)今天我們的第一個問題將來自瑞銀集團的邁爾斯·沃爾頓。

  • Myles Alexander Walton - MD & Senior Analyst

    Myles Alexander Walton - MD & Senior Analyst

  • You've tackled a lot of issues in the quarter, so it's not an easy job where you sit. I was wondering if you could talk about the underlying margins, excluding the forward losses and cumulative changes. It looks like your segment margins were about breakeven. And curious if that's sort of the underlying business right now at these low levels, you're breaking even. And then maybe more detailed just a one-off on the A350, the size of the forward loss. There seems to be about double what was in the debt offering disclosure. I'm just curious what changed there because it looks like you were assuming 5 per month back then as well.

    你在本季解決了很多問題,所以這不是一件容易的事。我想知道您是否可以談談基本利潤,不包括遠期損失和累積變化。看起來你們的部門利潤率大約是損益兩平的。好奇的是,這是否是目前處於如此低水平的基礎業務,你是否能實現收支平衡。然後也許更詳細的是 A350 的一次性損失,即前向損失的大小。債務發行披露中的內容似乎約為兩倍。我只是好奇那裡發生了什麼變化,因為看起來你當時也假設每個月 5 個。

  • Thomas C. Gentile - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas C. Gentile - President, CEO & Director

  • Right. Well, I'll start off. In terms of the margins, you're right. We have made some substantial improvements quarter-over-quarter. I mean obviously deterioration year-over-year because of the reduction in production rates. But the cost reduction actions are starting to take hold. And so even at very low levels of production, you start to see the margin improvement.

    正確的。好吧,我就開始吧。就利潤而言,你是對的。我們每季都取得了一些重大改進。我的意思是,由於生產力下降,情況明顯逐年惡化。但降低成本的行動已開始生效。因此,即使產量非常低,您也開始看到利潤率的提高。

  • So for example, right now, effectively for 737, we're at 7 APM rate. On 777, we've dropped now to about 2 per month. On 787, we're still at 10, but that's dropping to 6. So even with all those headwinds, you saw the margins improve on the 737 program on a normalized basis last quarter at negative 20% and to this quarter at negative 3%, so almost breakeven. So we're pretty happy about that.

    例如,現在,對於 737,我們的 APM 速率有效。對於 777,我們現在已降至每月 2 趟左右。在787 上,我們仍處於10 名,但正在下降至6 名。因此,即使面臨所有這些不利因素,您仍會看到737 項目的利潤率在正常化基礎上有所改善,上個季度為負20%,本季為負3% ,所以幾乎是盈虧平衡。所以我們對此感到非常高興。

  • Now the forward loss on the A350 program was really just due to rates. When we originally made the estimate of what we thought the forward loss was going to be, we were working on the assumption that the rate was going to drop from 10 to 6. But in fact, Airbus dropped it to 5 for at least a 6-month period beginning in kind of the September time frame. So when we took that into account, that drove the higher forward loss than we predicted at the end of last quarter. Mark, anything else to add?

    現在,A350 計劃的遠期損失實際上只是由於費率造成的。當我們最初估計遠期損失時,我們假設該比率將從 10 降至 6。但事實上,空中巴士在至少 6 的時間內將其降至 5。- 以九月時間範圍開始的月份。因此,當我們考慮到這一點時,這導致遠期損失高於我們上季末的預測。馬克,還有什麼要補充的嗎?

  • Mark J. Suchinski - Senior VP & CFO

    Mark J. Suchinski - Senior VP & CFO

  • No, I think you hit it right, Tom. The A350, Myles, really was due to the fact that between now and the end of the year and mainly through next year, we're really going to be producing at about 4.5 per month. And when we originally made the assessment, it was in the forward losses in the 5 to 6 range. And so we've had to take that into account. And also with that lower level of production, it's had a negative impact not only on Section 15, but also our fixed leading edge program.

    不,我認為你說得對,湯姆。 A350,Myles,確實是因為從現在到今年年底,主要是到明年,我們的產量確實會達到每月 4.5 架左右。當我們最初進行評估時,遠期損失在5到6個範圍內。所以我們必須考慮到這一點。而且,由於生產水準較低,不僅對第 15 節產生了負面影響,而且對我們的固定前沿計劃也產生了負面影響。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question will come from Carter Copeland with Melius Research.

    我們的下一個問題將來自 Melius Research 的 Carter Copeland。

  • Carter Copeland - Founding Partner, President and Research Analyst of Aerospace & Defense

    Carter Copeland - Founding Partner, President and Research Analyst of Aerospace & Defense

  • Just a question on cash from what you've sort of disclosed about next year. Based on this year's guidance, sort of $850 million out, you get the cash tax benefits of $300 million, and the cost out isn't quite there. But I don't know, call that $200 million, it kind of gets you to low single-digit hundreds of millions out. Are there other pieces that I'm missing? And I guess specifically with that, what should we expect from a cash standpoint on the Bombardier assets in your view?

    只是關於你所披露的明年的現金問題。根據今年的指導,大約支出 8.5 億美元,您將獲得 3 億美元的現金稅收優惠,而成本支出並不完全存在。但我不知道,就算是 2 億美元,它也能讓你賺到幾億美元。我還缺其他部分嗎?我想具體來說,在您看來,從現金的角度來看,我們應該對龐巴迪資產有何期望?

  • Thomas C. Gentile - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas C. Gentile - President, CEO & Director

  • Well, first of all, as you know, the cash usage for this quarter was $72 million. Mark said it's going to be probably a little bit higher next quarter. As we go into next year, again, with our current forecast, 737 production should be higher than this year, but it's very dynamic, so we'll see. Some headwinds on the twin-aisle programs. But by and large, we don't expect the cash usage per quarter to exceed what we've seen in kind of Q3 and Q4.

    嗯,首先,如您所知,本季的現金使用量為 7,200 萬美元。馬克表示,下個季度可能會更高一些。當我們進入明年時,根據我們目前的預測,737 的產量應該會高於今年,但它非常活躍,所以我們拭目以待。雙通道專案面臨一些阻力。但總的來說,我們預計每季的現金使用量不會超過第三季和第四季的水平。

  • So you're right. With the cash tax benefit of $300 million, that will put us in the kind of single digit to right around the $100 million net usage and perhaps better, depending on performance. What it doesn't include is Bombardier. Still digging into it, but we do expect Bombardier to be positive. We've got some work to do there as we look at their capital expenditures and their R&D and things like that. And we align it to our programs and as well as we start to drive synergies, particularly in the supply chain. So we expect it to be positive. Don't know yet how much, but I think your analysis in terms of where we will be for cash flow next year, including the cash tax benefit, is about right.

    所以你是對的。有了 3 億美元的現金稅收優惠,這將使我們的淨使用量達到個位數,約為 1 億美元,甚至可能更好,具體取決於業績。它不包括龐巴迪。仍在深入研究,但我們確實預計龐巴迪將持積極態度。當我們研究他們的資本支出和研發以及類似的事情時,我們還有一些工作要做。我們將其與我們的計劃相結合,並開始推動協同效應,特別是在供應鏈中。所以我們預計它會是正面的。尚不知道多少,但我認為您對明年現金流狀況(包括現金稅收優惠)的分析是正確的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question will come from Robert Spingarn with Credit Suisse.

    我們的下一個問題將來自瑞士信貸銀行的羅伯特·斯賓加恩。

  • Robert Michael Spingarn - Aerospace and Defense Analyst

    Robert Michael Spingarn - Aerospace and Defense Analyst

  • My question is going to be on Bombardier, but before we go there, just to clarify, based on the moving pieces and where rates are now, in what quarter, Tom or Mark, do you expect to -- based on current planned rates, no changes, would we see trough revenues? Because it sounds like some rates are still trending down on the wide-bodies. And of course, Bombardier is a little bit obscure. So that's the first question.

    我的問題是關於龐巴迪的,但在我們去那裡之前,只是想澄清一下,根據正在發生的事情以及現在的費率,在哪個季度,湯姆或馬克,你期望——根據當前的計劃費率,如果沒有變化,我們會看到收入低谷嗎?因為聽起來寬體飛機的某些費率仍然呈現下降趨勢。當然,龐巴迪有點默默無聞。這是第一個問題。

  • Second question is why did Spirit and Bombardier value the deal somewhat differently. Bombardier talked about some favorable adjustments on the forward business?

    第二個問題是,為什麼精神航空和龐巴迪對這筆交易的評價有所不同。龐巴迪談到了遠期業務的一些有利調整?

  • Mark J. Suchinski - Senior VP & CFO

    Mark J. Suchinski - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes. So first off, as it relates to the trough from a revenue standpoint, I would tell you that we expect the trough is behind us. The revenue that we generated in the second quarter of 2020 or this year, we expect that to be our low point. And as you saw here, we're -- we've made a slight improvement here in the third quarter.

    是的。首先,從收入的角度來看,這與低谷有關,我想告訴你,我們預期低谷已經過去。我們預計 2020 年第二季或今年的收入將是我們的最低點。正如您在這裡看到的,我們在第三季度取得了輕微的進步。

  • And then as we move into next year, we have to adjust for some of the twin-aisle pressure next year, but the expectation is 737 will be a little bit higher next year, which will help offset that. So I think we're in a good position as we move forward here to slightly start to see revenues move upward as we move into '21 and even stronger into the back half of next year based on the OEM data that has been provided to us.

    然後,當我們進入明年時,我們必須針對明年的一些雙通道壓力進行調整,但預計 737 明年的價格會更高一些,這將有助於抵消這種壓力。因此,我認為我們處於有利位置,隨著我們向前邁進,隨著我們進入 21 年,根據向我們提供的 OEM 數據,收入會略有上升,甚至明年下半年會更加強勁。 。

  • And then specifically, as it relates to Bombardier's press release and how they characterized, all I can tell you is that Bombardier accounting is due to IFRS, Spirit uses U.S. GAAP and how they calculated their liabilities or the deal values is really up to them and their accountants. I can tell you that we used our accountants and our actuaries to assess the pension obligation liability and the repayable launch agreement and then the cash proceeds.

    然後具體來說,因為它涉及龐巴迪的新聞稿及其特徵,我只能告訴你,龐巴迪的會計是根據國際財務報告準則,精神使用美國公認會計準則,他們如何計算負債或交易價值實際上取決於他們,他們的會計師。我可以告訴你,我們使用我們的會計師和精算師來評估退休金義務負債和可償還啟動協議,然後評估現金收益。

  • So when we finalized the purchase accounting here and established the balance sheet at the end of October, we're very comfortable with our accounting assessment as it relates to what the value of the deal is. I wish I could connect the dots more for you, but they probably had some different assumptions than we did, but we do know that our deal value in the enterprise and what the liabilities will establish on our books is consistent with U.S. GAAP.

    因此,當我們在這裡完成採購會計並在十月底建立資產負債表時,我們對我們的會計評估非常滿意,因為它與交易的價值有關。我希望我能為你把這些點聯繫起來,但他們可能有一些與我們不同的假設,但我們確實知道我們在企業中的交易價值以及我們賬簿上的負債與美國公認會計原則一致。

  • Thomas C. Gentile - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas C. Gentile - President, CEO & Director

  • Right. It really gets down to how they value the pension obligations in IFRS versus how we did in U.S. GAAP. That's the difference.

    正確的。這實際上取決於他們如何評估《國際財務報告準則》中的退休金義務,以及我們如何評估《美國公認會計準則》中的退休金義務。這就是區別。

  • Robert Michael Spingarn - Aerospace and Defense Analyst

    Robert Michael Spingarn - Aerospace and Defense Analyst

  • The last part, just, Tom, on the exclusivity that you have there. Did that -- is that part of a -- some kind of a pricing arrangement? Or should we see similar profitability in that business to what we would normally expect from Spirit?

    湯姆,最後一部分是關於你在那裡擁有的排他性。這是某種定價安排的一部分嗎?或者我們應該看到該業務的盈利能力與我們通常對 Spirit 的預期相似?

  • Thomas C. Gentile - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas C. Gentile - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Well, the exclusivity is that we have sole-source life of program agreements on the parts that the Belfast operations currently supplies to Bombardier on their business jet programs. And the profitability is slightly accretive on those programs to Spirit's normal profitability margins.

    是的。嗯,排他性在於,我們對貝爾法斯特營運部門目前向龐巴迪公務機專案提供的零件擁有獨家來源的專案協議期限。這些計劃的盈利能力略微提高了 Spirit 的正常盈利能力。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question will come from Kristine Liwag with Morgan Stanley.

    我們的下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的克里斯汀·利瓦格。

  • Kristine Tan Liwag - Equity Analyst

    Kristine Tan Liwag - Equity Analyst

  • For the Bombardier assets that you've acquired, can you discuss the free cash flow profile of these businesses? And then now that you've closed the deal, what your priorities are in the next year?

    對於您收購的龐巴迪資產,您能討論一下這些業務的自由現金流狀況嗎?既然您已經完成了交易,您明年的首要任務是什麼?

  • Mark J. Suchinski - Senior VP & CFO

    Mark J. Suchinski - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes, Kristine, I'll address the cash flow, and then I think Tom will kind of talk a bit about the business next year. But the reality is this, their business has been -- it's our business now, it's been impacted by COVID-19. So obviously, there's going to be lower revenues than we initially anticipated when we signed the purchase agreement there. And we just closed the deal a few days ago. Our teams just hit the ground on Monday. And Tuesday, I've got my financial team diving into the details as it relates to the next couple of months.

    是的,克里斯汀,我將討論現金流,然後我認為湯姆明年會談論一些業務。但現實是,他們的業務一直是——現在是我們的業務,它受到了 COVID-19 的影響。顯然,收入將低於我們在那裡簽署購買協議時最初的預期。幾天前我們剛完成了交易。我們的團隊週一才剛起步。週二,我讓我的財務團隊深入研究與未來幾個月相關的細節。

  • We'll be working with them over the next month or so to establish an annual operating plan for 2021. They had a plan previously and expectations with their former parent company. And as we think about the integration and the synergies and where that business is going on a go-forward basis, we expect decent revenues as it relates to the business jet side of things. I think we've got good line of sight to A220, and we're really pleased with the aftermarket part of the business.

    我們將在下個月左右與他們合作,制定 2021 年的年度營運計劃。他們之前有一個計劃,並對前母公司有期望。當我們考慮整合和協同效應以及該業務的未來發展方向時,我們預計會獲得可觀的收入,因為它與公務機方面相關。我認為我們對 A220 有良好的視野,而且我們對售後業務部分非常滿意。

  • So we're not yet going to really get into details as it relates to where we think their cash flow is going to do and -- next year and how it's going to contribute just specifically. We'll factor that into our guidance when we talk to you guys at the end of January. But it's really in the early days of the Bombardier acquisition, and our teams are working in earnest as it relates to the integration and the synergies, but we're really pleased about that business and what it could offer from a value proposition for Spirit.

    因此,我們還不會真正深入了解細節,因為這與我們認為他們的現金流將在哪裡以及明年以及它將如何具體做出貢獻有關。當我們在一月底與你們交談時,我們會將這一點納入我們的指導中。但這確實處於龐巴迪收購的早期階段,我們的團隊正在認真工作,因為它涉及整合和協同效應,但我們對該業務以及它可以從 Spirit 的價值主張中提供的內容感到非常滿意。

  • Thomas C. Gentile - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas C. Gentile - President, CEO & Director

  • Right. And Kristine, in terms of priorities for the business, first and foremost is integration. It's a new acquisition. It's a big one. It's the biggest that Spirit's ever made. And so we have a fairly large integration team working on all the normal things in terms of finance, HR, information technology, driving all of those things.

    正確的。克里斯汀(Kristine)就業務優先事項而言,首先也是最重要的是整合。這是一項新收購。這是一個很大的。這是 Spirit 有史以來最大的飛機。因此,我們有一個相當大的整合團隊,致力於財務、人力資源、資訊科技方面的所有正常事務,推動所有這些事務。

  • Second big focus is going to be on capturing synergies, and that's part of the integration effort, but specifically looking at supply chain, facilities optimization, overhead. And particularly in supply chain, with Spirit, we bring a lot more critical mass and scale with suppliers. And so we'll start integrating those opportunities and leveraging our existing supply base to get more competitive opportunities as we go forward.

    第二個重點是捕捉協同效應,這是整合工作的一部分,但特別關注供應鏈、設施優化和管理費用。特別是在供應鏈方面,透過 Spirit,我們為供應商帶來了更多的臨界質量和規模。因此,我們將開始整合這些機會,並利用我們現有的供應基礎,在我們前進的過程中獲得更具競爭力的機會。

  • Operationally, the A220, of course, is a huge program. It's the entire integrated wing using that resin transfer infusion technology for fabrication that I mentioned in my prepared remarks. And we're going to be looking very hard at the production process, the flow, material waste and looking at ways we can optimize the production and drive further productivity in it.

    從操作上來說,A220 當然是一個龐大的計畫。這是我在準備好的發言中提到的使用樹脂轉移灌注技術進行製造的整個整合機翼。我們將非常努力地研究生產流程、流程、材料浪費,並尋找優化生產並進一步提高生產力的方法。

  • And then the other big thing is aftermarket. This acquisition more than doubles our aftermarket business, and it gives us

    另一件大事是售後市場。這次收購使我們的售後市場業務增加了一倍多,它使我們能夠

  • (technical difficulty)

    (技術難度)

  • This is Tom again. I -- sorry, we must have dropped off. So moderator, could you let -- or perhaps you could let us know where did we stop? Did they hear my response to Kristine's question.

    這又是湯姆。我——抱歉,我們肯定已經下車了。主持人,您能否讓——或者也許您可以讓我們知道我們在哪裡停止了?他們聽到我對克莉絲汀問題的回答了嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • You were giving your response to Kristine's question. However, if you -- I have reopened Kristine's line, if you would like to reask that question again.

    你正在回答克里斯汀的問題。然而,如果你——我已經重新開通了克里斯汀的電話,如果你想再次問這個問題。

  • Thomas C. Gentile - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas C. Gentile - President, CEO & Director

  • So Kristine, let me -- I'll just start over and make sure we get it in fully. But in...

    所以克里斯汀,讓我——我會重新開始並確保我們完全理解。但在...

  • Kristine Tan Liwag - Equity Analyst

    Kristine Tan Liwag - Equity Analyst

  • Sure. I think the part you dropped off on was your question about aftermarket. That's the part where, I think, your line dropped off.

    當然。我認為您提出的問題是關於售後市場的問題。我想這就是你的線路斷線的部分。

  • Thomas C. Gentile - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas C. Gentile - President, CEO & Director

  • Okay. Right. Okay. So -- right. So aftermarket is going to be a big focus for us with this acquisition and Bombardier's assets more than double our aftermarket revenue. And so we've always historically been very strong on Boeing repairs for flight control surfaces, nacelles and thrust reversers in the U.S. market. And the Bombardier business was always very strong on Airbus flight control surfaces, nacelles and thrust reversers in the European market.

    好的。正確的。好的。所以——對。因此,透過這次收購,售後市場將成為我們的重點,龐巴迪的資產使我們的售後市場收入增加了一倍以上。因此,我們在美國市場上對波音飛行控制面、發動機短艙和推力反向器的維修方面一直表現強勁。龐巴迪在歐洲市場的空中巴士飛行控制面、引擎短艙和推力反向器方面的業務一直非常強勁。

  • So those 2 things come together very nicely and complement each other and will more than double our aftermarket business. And as I said in my prepared remarks, our aftermarket revenue now becomes 8% of our total, and we have substantial growth opportunities in the future. So this becomes a significant opportunity for Spirit to start to realize more revenue and income from aftermarket activity.

    因此,這兩件事非常完美地結合在一起,相輔相成,將使我們的售後市場業務增加一倍以上。正如我在準備好的演講中所說,我們的售後市場收入現在已佔總收入的 8%,未來我們有大量的成長機會。因此,這成為 Spirit 開始從售後市場活動中實現更多收入和收入的重要機會。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question will come from Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.

    我們的下一個問題將由 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu 提出。

  • Sheila Karin Kahyaoglu - Equity Analyst

    Sheila Karin Kahyaoglu - Equity Analyst

  • Just to follow-up on Kristine's question, maybe sticking with Bombardier. Your EV on the deal fell 35% or so, but the implied EBITDA fell 50%. So I guess how do you think about how you've risk-adjusted the exposure here, given it's mainly A320 -- 220 and bizjet exposure? And how do you think about those program outlooks appreciating, Tom, that the deal just closed and you're going through the forecasting for it?

    只是為了跟進克里斯汀的問題,也許會堅持選擇龐巴迪。這筆交易的 EV 下降了 35% 左右,但隱含的 EBITDA 下降了 50%。所以我想,鑑於主要是 A320、220 和商務噴射機的風險敞口,您如何看待如何調整風險敞口?湯姆,您如何看待那些項目前景,因為交易剛剛結束,您正在對其進行預測?

  • Thomas C. Gentile - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas C. Gentile - President, CEO & Director

  • A few ways that we looked at it. Obviously, we struck the deal last October, but the world changed with the pandemic. And Bombardier had certain expectations in terms of deal valuation, and we were looking for some relief given the changes in the market. So it was, as you can imagine, a rigorous discussion, and we arrived at a mutual conclusion that it was a 20% reduction in the total deal valuation. But if you look at the cash consideration, it was a 45% reduction. So that's probably more in line with the EBITDA reduction that you just mentioned.

    我們看待它的幾種方式。顯然,我們去年十月就達成協議,但世界因疫情而改變。龐巴迪對交易估值有一定的預期,考慮到市場的變化,我們正在尋求一些緩解。所以,正如你可以想像的那樣,這是一次嚴格的討論,我們得出了一個共同的結論:交易總估值降低了 20%。但如果你看看現金考慮因素,你會發現減少了 45%。所以這可能更符合您剛才提到的 EBITDA 減少。

  • The other element of this is it was always a 3-way negotiation with Airbus because the pricing on the A220 and all the deliverables to Airbus had to be taken into account. And Airbus was also very supportive in these discussions to make sure we could come to a mutually-agreeable outcome. So all those things taken into account, we feel very comfortable with where we ended up in a deal valuation.

    另一個因素是,與空中巴士公司始終進行三方談判,因為必須考慮 A220 的定價和所有向空中巴士公司交付的產品。空中巴士公司也非常支持這些討論,以確保我們能夠達成雙方都同意的結果。因此,考慮到所有這些因素,我們對最終的交易估值感到非常滿意。

  • So it's a win really for Spirit because we get a transformative acquisition. It's a win for Bombardier to get the acquisition closed, so they can move on with making their business more focused on business jets. Really a win for Airbus and that they now have clarity in terms of their A220, particularly on the full integrated wing. And we would say, it's a win for the workforce in Belfast, Casablanca and Dallas because they now have certainty as we go forward.

    因此,這對 Spirit 來說確實是一場勝利,因為我們獲得了一次變革性的收購。完成收購對龐巴迪來說是一次勝利,因此他們可以繼續將業務更加專注於公務機。這對空中巴士來說確實是一場勝利,他們現在對 A220 有了清晰的認識,特別是在全集成機翼方面。我們想說,這對貝爾法斯特、卡薩布蘭卡和達拉斯的勞動力來說是一場勝利,因為他們現在在我們前進的過程中擁有了確定性。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question will come from Doug Harned with Bernstein.

    我們的下一個問題將來自伯恩斯坦的道格·哈內德。

  • Douglas Stuart Harned - SVP and Senior Analyst

    Douglas Stuart Harned - SVP and Senior Analyst

  • Last week, Airbus talked about the, basically, letters that it had sent out to suppliers on rate increases for the A320neo from 40 to 47 a month. And they said that this -- they had been planning for suppliers to be ready for such an increase in Q2 next year. They moved that back to Q3 next year.

    上週,空中巴士基本上談到了其向供應商發出的關於將 A320neo 的價格從每月 40 架增加到 47 架的信函。他們表示,他們一直在計劃讓供應商為明年第二季的這種成長做好準備。他們將其推遲到明年第三季。

  • What I'm interested in is you're the largest structural supplier on the A320neo. And when you get a message like that, that you should be ready for this rate increase, how do you think about responding? What do you do? And what did it mean that they moved this back from Q2 to Q3 from a Spirit standpoint?

    我感興趣的是你們是 A320neo 上最大的結構供應商。當您收到這樣的訊息,即您應該為此次升息做好準備時,您如何考慮回應?你做什麼工作?從 Spirit 的角度來看,他們將其從 Q2 移回 Q3 意味著什麼?

  • Thomas C. Gentile - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas C. Gentile - President, CEO & Director

  • So the letter, and we had calls with their senior leadership on this topic, is the way they characterize it is they asked us to protect rate 47 for the back half of the year. So the current schedule is rate 40, but they asked us to protect for 47.

    因此,這封信以及我們就此主題與他們的高級領導層進行了通話,他們的描述是他們要求我們在今年下半年保護 47 的匯率。所以目前的時間表是40,但他們要求我們保護47。

  • So that means to make sure that we have all of our capital and tooling in place, that we're prepared to increase the workforce 2 or 3 months in advance of that, and that we also have line of sight to material, particularly long-lead material like forgings, if the rate does go up. And they would give us enough advanced notice to put those things into effect. But protecting the rate means we have to be prepared to go there if they decide to make that move.

    因此,這意味著要確保我們所有的資本和工具都到位,我們準備好提前 2 到 3 個月增加勞動力,並且我們還對材料有視線,特別是長期的-鉛材料如鍛件,如果價格確實上漲的話。他們會提前給我們足夠的通知來實施這些事情。但保護利率意味著我們必須做好準備,如果他們決定採取這項行動的話。

  • Now obviously, the market is very dynamic right now. They have talked with all of their individual airlines and created a new skyline based on when airlines can take delivery and when they will take delivery. So they've been very diligent about the way they have constructed their schedule and what they've communicated to their suppliers. And they're effectively just giving us advanced notice to be prepared if the rate does go up.

    顯然,現在市場非常活躍。他們與所有各自的航空公司進行了交談,並根據航空公司何時可以提貨以及何時提貨創建了新的天際線。因此,他們非常努力地制定時間表以及與供應商溝通的內容。他們實際上只是提前通知我們,以便我們在利率確實上漲時做好準備。

  • The fact that it shifted 3 months doesn't really impact us. It just means that we push that lead time out. So we have done what they requested. We are protecting for rate 47 in the back half of the year, Q3 now. And if they do decide to go up, we'll be prepared.

    事實上,它改變了三個月並沒有真正影響我們。這只是意味著我們推遲了交付時間。所以我們已經照他們的要求做了。我們正在保護今年下半年(即第三季)的利率 47。如果他們確實決定上去,我們會做好準備。

  • Douglas Stuart Harned - SVP and Senior Analyst

    Douglas Stuart Harned - SVP and Senior Analyst

  • And what -- and this -- does the going up mean -- is this -- I mean, what does that exactly mean, that you would be, within whatever quarter that is, able to deliver in that quarter? Or does it mean that you would be kind of set to go? I'm sort of not sure what, for you, what -- and how to tie your rate to their rate. I guess that's the thing I'm trying to understand.

    上升意味著什麼——這意味著什麼——我的意思是,這到底意味著什麼,你在任何季度內都能夠在該季度交付?或者這是否意味著你已經準備好離開了?我有點不確定對你來說是什麼——以及如何將你的費率與他們的費率聯繫起來。我想這就是我想要理解的事情。

  • Thomas C. Gentile - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas C. Gentile - President, CEO & Director

  • Well, typically, on the A320, if they announce a rate of 47, we would be delivering at that rate during that period of time. So as they said on the call, I think Guillaume said October. So if they decide to go in October, we'd be prepared to deliver 47 shipsets in October.

    嗯,通常情況下,在 A320 上,如果他們宣布的速率為 47,我們將在該時間段內以該速率交付。正如他們在電話中所說,我認為紀堯姆說的是十月。因此,如果他們決定在 10 月出發,我們將準備在 10 月交付 47 艘船組。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question will come from Ken Herbert with Canaccord.

    我們的下一個問題將來自 Canaccord 的 Ken Herbert。

  • Kenneth George Herbert - MD and Senior Aerospace & Defense Analyst

    Kenneth George Herbert - MD and Senior Aerospace & Defense Analyst

  • I wanted to see, Tom, if you can provide any more detail on the glide path for the 737 from -- sounds like you're at 7 a month now to the, call it, 26 a month at the end of '21 or early '22, if you sort of lag by 5 a month. If you can provide any more detail on sort of rate breaks over the next several quarters on that and when you expect to catch up with Boeing on 737 rate?

    湯姆,我想知道您是否可以提供有關 737 滑翔路徑的更多詳細資訊——聽起來您現在是每月 7 點,到 21 年底每月 26 點,或者22 年初,如果您一個月落後5 個的話。您能否提供有關未來幾季的利率優惠的更多詳細資訊以及您預計何時在 737 利率上趕上波音?

  • Thomas C. Gentile - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas C. Gentile - President, CEO & Director

  • Right. Well, Boeing has provided guidance that they think that the production rate will be at 31 per month by early 2022. And as we said, we're going to lag them by about 5 aircraft per month to burn down the inventory that's stored here at Wichita. Right now, we're in the process of ramping up to 10 aircraft per month for January. So we're in the process of getting all of our headcount and material orders and supply chain aligned for that.

    正確的。嗯,波音公司提供了指導,他們認為到 2022 年初,生產率將達到每月 31 架。正如我們所說,我們將落後他們每月約 5 架飛機,以消耗掉存儲在這裡的庫存威奇托。目前,我們正在將 1 月份的飛機數量增加到每月 10 架。因此,我們正在為此調整所有員工人數、材料訂單和供應鏈。

  • Within that, we don't have much other guidance other than what Boeing would provide. It's a very dynamic environment, and we will be guided by what Boeing tells us. But that's how we're planning right now is we'll be at 10 by January, they'll be at 31 by early 2022, and we're going to lag them by about 5 per month.

    其中,除了波音公司提供的指導之外,我們沒有太多其他指導。這是一個非常動態的環境,我們將遵循波音公司告訴我們的資訊。但這就是我們現在的計劃,到 1 月我們將達到 10 個,到 2022 年初我們將達到 31 個,我們每月將落後他們約 5 個。

  • In terms of the catch-up based on the current schedule, it looks like we would burn down the 130 or so, the 128 units that we have in buffer now to 20 to 25 by mid-2022. And then we'll keep that buffer of 20 or 25 units just to cushion the production system so that we don't have any disruption that could upset Boeing's production line and effort. So that's the plan.

    就目前時間表的追趕而言,到 2022 年中期,我們似乎會將目前緩衝的 130 輛左右(即 128 輛)減少到 20 至 25 輛。然後我們將保留 20 或 25 台的緩衝,只是為了緩衝生產系統,這樣我們就不會出現任何可能擾亂波音生產線和工作的中斷。這就是計劃。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question will come from Seth Seifman with JPMorgan.

    我們的下一個問題將來自摩根大通的賽斯·塞夫曼。

  • Seth Michael Seifman - Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Seth Michael Seifman - Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • Wonder if maybe I could add sneak 2 in here. But one, on the 737, with the current workforce, how high can production go with the workforce at the size that it is now? And then just real quick on Bombardier and the A220. How should we think about where the rate needs to go on that program before it becomes -- before it starts to contribute at a solid cash margin?

    想知道我是否可以在這裡添加潛行2。但問題是,在 737 飛機上,以目前的勞動力水平,以目前的勞動力規模,產量能達到多少?然後很快就可以看到龐巴迪和 A220。在該計劃開始提供穩定的現金利潤之前,我們應該如何考慮該計劃的利率需要調整到什麼程度?

  • Thomas C. Gentile - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas C. Gentile - President, CEO & Director

  • Right. Well, on 737, our current workforce is aligned to our current production rate, which is 7 aircraft per month. And as I said, we're getting ready to go up to 10 by the beginning of the year. So I mentioned the ventilator program. As that's winding down, we're transferring some of those people back to the 737 program so that we are ready to go to 10 in January. So currently at a rate of 7 and going to 10.

    正確的。嗯,在 737 上,我們目前的員工隊伍與目前的生產力保持一致,即每月 7 架飛機。正如我所說,我們正準備在今年年初增加到 10 個。所以我提到了呼吸機計劃。隨著這項計劃的結束,我們將把其中一些人調回 737 計劃,以便我們準備好在一月份加入 10 人。目前的比率為 7,並將上升至 10。

  • In terms of Bombardier, the A220, the current rate is about 4 per month. And we're going to be prepared in the future to go up to 14 per month. But we'll be guided by, again, what Airbus decides in terms of how fast they'll ramp that up. In terms of profitability, we'll need to dig into it to figure out where exactly the breakeven points are in the profitability. But it's going to be a good program overall. The outlook on it is very good.

    就龐巴迪A220而言,目前的費率約為每月4架。我們準備將來增加到每月 14 個。但我們將再次以空中巴士決定以多快的速度提升這一速度為指導。在獲利能力方面,我們需要深入研究,找出獲利能力的損益平衡點到底在哪裡。但總的來說,這將是一個很好的計劃。其前景非常好。

  • As I mentioned, it's one of the smaller segments of the narrow-body market, and the narrow-body market is recovering. For example, China and Russia, on their domestic aircraft flights -- air traffic, are already above 2019 levels. So we expect to see the same in Europe and the U.S. is that domestic travel will recover first, that will favor narrow-bodies.

    正如我所提到的,它是窄體市場中較小的細分市場之一,並且窄體市場正在復蘇。例如,中國和俄羅斯的國內航班——空中交通——已經高於 2019 年的水平。因此,我們預計歐洲和美國也會出現同樣的情況,即國內旅行將首先復甦,這將有利於窄體飛機。

  • And with overall levels of traffic lower than they were in the past, a smaller narrow-body like the A220 should do very well. So we expect that Airbus will hit their long-term production rate commitments on it, and we will be ready to meet those commitments. And as we get further into it, I think we'll have a better sense of what the profitability breakeven points are.

    由於整體交通水平低於過去,像 A220 這樣的小型窄體飛機應該會表現得很好。因此,我們預期空中巴士將兌現其長期生產力承諾,我們也將做好履行這些承諾的準備。隨著我們進一步深入研究,我認為我們將對獲利損益平衡點有更好的了解。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question will come from Jon Raviv with Citi.

    我們的下一個問題將來自花旗銀行的喬恩·拉維夫。

  • Jonathan Phaff Raviv - VP & Analyst

    Jonathan Phaff Raviv - VP & Analyst

  • Back to cash. Can you talk a little more specifically, Tom, about what you need to see in 2021 for cash burn to be significantly better? And then same thing, what do you need to see for cash breakeven in '22? What's in your control? What's not in your control? And it strikes me that narrow-body is clearly very important. You talked about Airbus, you're talking about MAX a lot.

    回到現金。 Tom,您能否更具體地談談您需要在 2021 年看到什麼才能使現金消耗明顯改善?同樣的,你需要看到什麼才能在 22 年達到現金收支平衡?什麼是你能掌控的?什麼是你無法控制的?讓我印象深刻的是,窄體顯然非常重要。你談到空客,你常常談到 MAX。

  • But Boeing is talking about slower deliveries in '21, which would therefore constrain their production, which would therefore constrain your deliveries. So just a little bit more on what's in your control versus what's not in your control. And what production rate do you have to hit to actually make cash on each 737?

    但波音公司正在談論 21 年的交貨速度較慢,這將限制他們的生產,從而限制你們的交付。因此,請多了解您可以控制的內容和您無法控制的內容。每架 737 的生產力必須達到多少才能真正賺錢?

  • Thomas C. Gentile - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas C. Gentile - President, CEO & Director

  • Right. So as you said, I mean what's in our control versus what's not in our control. What's in our control is our cost-reduction actions. And we need to continue to execute on those. We've got -- a lot of them are already in place, but we need to maintain that vigilance. We also need to continue to drive productivity in our factories with what I mentioned, things like digitization and automation, robotics, factory floor automation. So those are the things that are in our control to drive, and we are definitely going to continue to drive those.

    正確的。正如你所說,我的意思是我們可以控制的事情和我們無法控制的事情。我們能控制的是我們的成本削減行動。我們需要繼續執行這些措施。我們已經——其中很多已經到位,但我們需要保持警惕。我們還需要繼續透過我提到的數位化和自動化、機器人技術、工廠車間自動化等來提高工廠的生產力。因此,這些都是我們可以控制的,我們肯定會繼續推動這些。

  • Things not in our control and really the biggest driver for cash flow in 2021 is going to be production rates, particularly on the 737. Obviously, the 737 is our biggest program. We make 70% of the structure. Last year, it accounted for half of our revenue. This year, we only produced 72 units versus 606 in 2019. So if that recovers and it's supposed to recover from this year, according to Boeing's current projections, that obviously drive improved cash flow for next year, even with the headwinds of some lower rates on the wide-bodies like the 777 and the A350.

    生產力是我們無法控制的,也是 2021 年現金流的最大驅動力,尤其是 737。顯然,737 是我們最大的專案。我們製造了 70% 的結構。去年,它占我們收入的一半。今年,我們只生產了72 架飛機,而2019 年為606 架。因此,如果這種情況恢復,並且根據波音公司當前的預測,它應該從今年開始恢復,這顯然會推動明年現金流的改善,即使有利率下降的不利因素適用於 777 和 A350 等寬體飛機。

  • But this is a very dynamic environment and lots of things could change. Obviously, we're still waiting for the MAX to get back into service. It's promising, it's encouraging, but that needs to happen. And the FAA have said there's no timetable on that, but they have said a lot of positive things about it. So has IASA, by the way, which is encouraging. So we need to see that.

    但這是一個非常動態的環境,很多事情都可能會改變。顯然,我們仍在等待 MAX 重新投入使用。這是有希望的,令人鼓舞的,但這需要發生。美國聯邦航空局表示沒有時間表,但他們對此說了很多積極的話。順便說一下,IASA 也是如此,這令人鼓舞。所以我們需要看到這一點。

  • And then, of course, they're pandemic. People are starting to fly more domestically in places like China and Russia. But with the recent surge, it creates more uncertainty. So once a vaccine is in place, that will obviously give greater focus. And also the development of these private health care corridors or travel bubbles that you start to see developing between different countries, which should help stimulate some international traffic.

    然後,當然,它們是大流行病。在中國和俄羅斯等地,人們開始更多地乘坐國內航班。但隨著最近的飆升,它帶來了更多的不確定性。因此,一旦疫苗到位,顯然會引起更多關注。此外,您開始看到這些不同國家之間正在發展的私人醫療保健走廊或旅行泡沫的發展,這應該有助於刺激一些國際交通。

  • So those, I think, are the key issues for 2021 and frankly, for 2022 as well. We've got to continue to drive our cost-reduction actions, but we need to see single-aisle production rates increase as air traffic recovers around the world.

    因此,我認為這些是 2021 年的關鍵問題,坦白說,也是 2022 年的關鍵問題。我們必須繼續推動成本削減行動,但隨著世界各地空中交通的恢復,我們需要看到單通道生產力的提高。

  • Mark J. Suchinski - Senior VP & CFO

    Mark J. Suchinski - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes, John, just to kind of add to what Tom said. We're -- with all the reductions in production rates this year, we really do -- when you think about delivering 72 737s, we're really kind of at the trough right now of production volumes. So even a modest improvement in 737 deliveries next year will be -- will create some tailwind and accretive benefits for us.

    是的,約翰,只是為了補充湯姆所說的內容。我們——隨著今年生產率的下降,我們確實如此——當你考慮交付 72 737 架時,我們目前確實處於產量的低谷。因此,即使明年 737 的交付量略有改善,也將為我們帶來一些順風和增值效益。

  • So as we said before, some of the drag of working capital that consumed quite a bit of cash here in 2020 will not repeat. I expect working capital to be a bit of a tailwind. A little bit of benefit from 737 next year. And as we said before, from an operational standpoint, we expect our cash flow to be significantly better year-over-year. More than half of our cash burn here in 2020 is working-capital-related, and that will not repeat next year. We'll get a little bit of benefit there.

    因此,正如我們之前所說,2020 年消耗大量現金的營運資金拖累將不會重演。我預計營運資金將起到一定的推動作用。明年737有點好處。正如我們之前所說,從營運角度來看,我們預計我們的現金流將比去年同期顯著改善。 2020 年,我們一半以上的現金消耗與營運資本相關,明年不會再發生這種情況。我們會在那裡得到一點好處。

  • And when you think about it, Carter kind of did some good math on where we think cash flow is. So significant improvement next year. Even with the lower production volumes, the cost-reduction activities are taking place. You see it in our cash usage this quarter. So we're going to continue to go battle the cost-reduction side, but we also, I think, have some real opportunities on the working capital.

    當你仔細想想,卡特對我們認為的現金流量做了一些很好的計算。明年會有顯著改善。儘管產量較低,但降低成本的活動仍在進行中。您可以從我們本季的現金使用情況中看到這一點。因此,我們將繼續努力降低成本,但我認為,我們在營運資本方面也有一些真正的機會。

  • I think we can do a better job next year on inventory management, which will potentially give us some additional tailwind on the cash flow side. And if the market predictions come true, we're looking at some modest recoveries back half of next year and into 2022, that will help on the operational front.

    我認為明年我們可以在庫存管理方面做得更好,這可能會為我們帶來現金流方面的額外推動力。如果市場預測成真,我們預計明年下半年和 2022 年將出現一些溫和復甦,這將有助於營運方面。

  • And then we've -- as we said, the -- it's kind of a pro and a con, but the operating losses this year will generate some sizable onetime cash tax benefit in 2021. And that will create some additional liquidity or cash to help us work through the challenges here. But we feel good about where we're at and where we think cash flow is going to be next year, significant improvement. And then as Tom indicated, we get a little -- some help here on the vaccination and then narrow-body starts to recover, we can be back in business, generating free cash flow in 2022.

    然後,正如我們所說,這是有利有弊的,但今年的經營虧損將在 2021 年產生一些相當大的一次性現金稅收優惠。這將創造一些額外的流動性或現金幫助我們應對這裡的挑戰。但我們對目前的狀況感到滿意,我們認為明年的現金流將會有顯著改善。然後,正如湯姆所指出的,我們在疫苗接種方面得到了一些幫助,然後窄體飛機開始恢復,我們可以重新開展業務,在 2022 年產生自由現金流。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question will come from George Shapiro with Shapiro Research.

    我們的下一個問題將來自夏皮羅研究中心的喬治·夏皮羅。

  • George D. Shapiro - CEO and Managing Partner

    George D. Shapiro - CEO and Managing Partner

  • I just wanted to go back to last year, Bombardier was going to do about $1 billion of revenues in '19. What is that number this year? I know you mentioned on the call, it will go up to $700 million-plus next year. So I'm just trying to get the comparison here as to what's...

    我只想回到去年,龐巴迪在 19 年的收入約 10 億美元。今年這個數字是多少?我知道你在電話中提到,明年將達到 7 億美元以上。所以我只是想在這裡進行比較...

  • Thomas C. Gentile - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas C. Gentile - President, CEO & Director

  • Well, you're right. Last year was about $1 billion. This year, with the impact of COVID -- and again, we're just getting to look at the books from the standpoint of closing the deal, it looks like it will be $700 million to $800 million and then a recovery to the $1 billion in the 2022 time period. But that's what we see right now.

    嗯,你是對的。去年約為10億美元。今年,受新冠疫情的影響,我們只是從完成交易的角度來審視帳簿,看起來這筆交易將達到 7 億至 8 億美元,然後恢復到 10 億美元在2022年的時間段內。但這就是我們現在所看到的。

  • Mark J. Suchinski - Senior VP & CFO

    Mark J. Suchinski - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes, George, to be more specific, this year, we're looking at $600 million to $650 million. That's what we're projecting for the year and then next year to $700 million to $800 million. So just a little bit of modest improvement next year before we start to see the revenue start to climb back up in '22.

    是的,喬治,更具體地說,今年我們的目標是 6 億至 6.5 億美元。這是我們今年和明年的預測,即 7 億至 8 億美元。因此,明年只要有一點點小幅改善,我們就會開始看到 22 年收入開始回升。

  • George D. Shapiro - CEO and Managing Partner

    George D. Shapiro - CEO and Managing Partner

  • And just on the 737, what happens if Boeing further delays the increase to the 31 per month rate? Because certainly, they've got a lot of planes to deliver. They've got a lot of grounded planes. So I just wanted to see how you react to that.

    就 737 而言,如果波音進一步推遲增加至每月 31 架,會發生什麼事?因為當然,他們有很多飛機要交付。他們有很多停飛的飛機。所以我只是想看看你對此有何反應。

  • Thomas C. Gentile - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas C. Gentile - President, CEO & Director

  • Well, we will respond to their production rate, and we'll lag them by at least 5 per month. And if the rates are lower than we're expecting, this will align our costs accordingly.

    好吧,我們會對他們的生產力做出反應,我們每個月會落後他們至少 5 個。如果費率低於我們的預期,這將相應地調整我們的成本。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question will come from David Strauss with Barclays.

    我們的下一個問題將來自巴克萊銀行的大衛·施特勞斯。

  • David Egon Strauss - Research Analyst

    David Egon Strauss - Research Analyst

  • Tom, I was wondering if you could just specify exactly what you're assuming for MAX production in '21 that you've got reflected in your commentary around '21 free cash flow. And then looking beyond the MAX, it's the other important platforms, 320, 350, 787. You're currently delivering well -- you're delivering into the manufacturers well above their own delivery rates at this point. So what -- how much risk is there that you actually have to drop your production rates on those programs, you actually have to drop below the manufacturer-stated production rates going forward?

    湯姆,我想知道您是否可以準確說明您對 21 年 MAX 產量的假設,您在關於 21 年自由現金流的評論中已經反映了這一點。然後看看 MAX 以外的其他重要平台,320、350、787。您目前的交付情況良好 - 此時您向製造商交付的交付率遠高於他們自己的交付率。那麼,您實際上必須降低這些計劃的生產率,實際上必須降低到製造商規定的未來生產力以下,這會帶來多大的風險?

  • Thomas C. Gentile - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas C. Gentile - President, CEO & Director

  • Right. Well, on the other programs, our rate tends to line up to the manufacturer's rate, so Airbus and Boeing. And when they give us a schedule, we deliver to it. And so those are pretty closely aligned. And on the 320, Airbus has been very clear they're at a rate of 40 right now, which is going to continue into next year. They've asked us to protect for 47 in the October time frame and beyond. The A350 is, right now, at a rate of 5, and that will go into early part of next year, May, June and then go back up to 6. 787 right now is at 10, and it's supposed to go to the 6 in about the March time frame. And 777 is really down to 2, 1.8. And those are all as -- what the manufacturers have stated, and we are aligned to those.

    正確的。嗯,在其他項目上,我們的費率往往與製造商的費率一致,空中巴士和波音也是如此。當他們給我們一個時間表時,我們就會按照時間表進行交付。所以這些都是非常一致的。對於 320,空中巴士公司已經非常明確地表示,他們目前的產能利用率為 40,並將持續到明年。他們要求我們在 10 月份及以後的時間範圍內保護 47 人。 A350 目前的成長率為 5,這將進入明年初,即 5 月、6 月,然後回到 6。787 目前的成長率為 10,應該會達到 6大約在三月份的時間範圍內。而 777 確實下降到了 2、1.8。這些都是製造商所說的,我們也同意這些。

  • On the MAX, Boeing hasn't been specific yet about what the production rate will be in 2021. What they've said is they expect to be to 31 by early 2022. And we're getting ready to go to 10 in January. And so we haven't really said what the specific rate will be for 2021. And we'll really wait and see what Boeing does. We don't want to get out ahead of them. It's obviously a very dynamic environment. They're working really hard with the airlines. And they've given some guidance to the market, and we're following that guidance, and we're making sure that we align to the schedule that they've given us.

    對於 MAX,波音尚未具體說明 2021 年的生產率。他們表示預計到 2022 年初將達到 31 架。我們正準備在 1 月達到 10 架。因此,我們還沒有真正透露 2021 年的具體費率是多少。我們將拭目以待,看看波音會做什麼。我們不想比他們先出去。顯然這是一個非常動態的環境。他們與航空公司非常努力地合作。他們向市場提供了一些指導,我們正在遵循該指導,並且我們確保我們符合他們給我們的時間表。

  • Mark J. Suchinski - Senior VP & CFO

    Mark J. Suchinski - Senior VP & CFO

  • And David, I think your point, though, is Boeing and Airbus, Boeing on the 87 has built up some units that they haven't delivered yet. Airbus has some as well. Again, that's really kind of outside of our control. They've asked us to produce. We're delivering. And we know that there's a lot of uncertainty as we move into 2021. I think production rates are still dynamic. And as we've acted very quickly this year, if there are further rate reductions, we will be forced to have to take additional workforce reductions and continue to focus our cost to align with the production rates.

    大衛,我認為你的觀點是波音和空中巴士,波音 87 已經建造了一些尚未交付的裝置。空中巴士公司也有一些。再說一次,這確實超出了我們的控制範圍。他們要求我們生產。我們正在送貨。我們知道,進入 2021 年,存在著許多不確定性。我認為生產力仍然是動態的。由於我們今年的行動非常迅速,如果進一步降低生產力,我們將被迫進一步裁員,並繼續集中成本以與生產力保持一致。

  • We have a highly variable cost structure here. And the best thing that we can do is -- production rates are out of our control. And if they go lower because of the situation that you just addressed, we're going to have to take further workforce actions, and we will continue to align our cost structure with the marketplace as we see it today. And as you know, it continues to be dynamic because of COVID-19.

    我們這裡的成本結構高度變動。我們能做的最好的事情就是——生產力是我們無法控制的。如果由於您剛才提到的情況而導致成本下降,我們將不得不採取進一步的勞動力行動,並且我們將繼續使我們的成本結構與我們今天所看到的市場保持一致。如您所知,由於 COVID-19,它繼續保持活力。

  • David Egon Strauss - Research Analyst

    David Egon Strauss - Research Analyst

  • And Mark, one quick follow-up. Working capital in 2020, the $800 million to $900 million free cash flow burn that you're guiding to. What are you including in there? I mean as you look at working capital, what you call working capital, what are you assuming within that number for kind of negative or free cash -- working capital burn in '20?

    馬克,快速跟進。 2020 年的營運資金,即您所引導的 8 億至 9 億美元自由現金流的消耗。你裡麵包括什麼?我的意思是,當你考慮營運資本時,你所說的營運資本,你在這個數字中假設什麼是負現金或自由現金——20 世紀營運資本消耗?

  • Mark J. Suchinski - Senior VP & CFO

    Mark J. Suchinski - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes. So David, I would focus on receivables, inventory, accounts payable and accrued liabilities and profit-sharing. Those are the big cash-driving working capital items on our balance sheet.

    是的。大衛,我將重點放在應收帳款、庫存、應付帳款、應計負債和利潤分享。這些是我們資產負債表上主要的現金驅動營運資金項目。

  • David Egon Strauss - Research Analyst

    David Egon Strauss - Research Analyst

  • Okay. And you think those are -- the sum of all that in '21 is a positive.

    好的。你認為 21 年所有這些的總和是正面的。

  • Mark J. Suchinski - Senior VP & CFO

    Mark J. Suchinski - Senior VP & CFO

  • Slightly positive, yes.

    有點積極,是的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question will come from Cai von Rumohr with Cowen.

    我們的下一個問題將由蔡·馮·魯莫爾和考恩提出。

  • Cai von Rumohr - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Cai von Rumohr - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • So when you first announced the Bombardier deal in October of 2019, I think you were talking of 6.5x EBITDA with synergies, which if you kind of back it up to the $1 billion, was like close to an 11% EBITDA margin. And now you're talking of $600 million to $650 million in terms of revenues for 2020. And if I use the 7.3x, it backs up to about a 12% EBITDA margin. So a higher EBITDA margin after a substantial revenue drop. And then if we're looking at next year, wouldn't the EBITDA margin go up if, in fact, the revenues are building as you hope?

    因此,當您在 2019 年 10 月首次宣布龐巴迪交易時,我認為您談論的是具有協同效應的 6.5 倍 EBITDA,如果您將其支持到 10 億美元,則相當於接近 11% 的 EBITDA 利潤率。現在你談論的 2020 年收入為 6 億至 6.5 億美元。如果我使用 7.3 倍,它的 EBITDA 利潤率可達 12% 左右。因此,在收入大幅下降後,EBITDA 利潤率會更高。然後,如果我們著眼於明年,如果收入實際上如您所希望的那樣增長,那麼 EBITDA 利潤率不會上升嗎?

  • Mark J. Suchinski - Senior VP & CFO

    Mark J. Suchinski - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes. I mean when you think of it that way, I don't think that an EBITDA margin on any of our business at around 10% is unreasonable. I think we have a lot of opportunity from a cost standpoint. Tom talked about 3 or 4 major drivers that we think that we can take advantage of as it relates to the Belfast site that could really help us from a profitability standpoint, from a cash flow standpoint. So I don't think it's unrealistic to assume that, that business can generate 10-plus -- 10- to 12-plus percent EBITDA margins as we look at getting back to the higher revenues over the next 1 to 2 years here.

    是的。我的意思是,當你這樣想時,我不認為我們任何業務的 EBITDA 利潤率在 10% 左右是不合理的。我認為從成本角度來看我們有很多機會。湯姆談到了我們認為可以利用的 3 或 4 個主要驅動因素,因為它與貝爾法斯特工廠相關,從盈利能力和現金流的角度來看,它們確實可以幫助我們。因此,當我們考慮在未來 1 到 2 年內恢復更高的收入時,我認為假設該業務可以產生 10% 以上 - 10% 到 12% 以上的 EBITDA 利潤率是不切實際的。

  • Thomas C. Gentile - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas C. Gentile - President, CEO & Director

  • And Cai, I would say we do think we can increase EBITDA margin next year as we drive the synergies, particularly in supply chain.

    蔡,我想說,隨著我們推動協同效應,特別是在供應鏈方面,我們確實認為明年可以提高 EBITDA 利潤率。

  • Cai von Rumohr - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Cai von Rumohr - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • But so if I look at this, what is driving the revenues up? Because A220 is already at rate, I assume, the 7500 has gone from aerostructures' point of view, 35 to 40. The aftermarket, I guess, could be flat to up. But I have a little trouble understanding what's driving the revenue up next year.

    但如果我看看這個,是什麼推動了營收的成長?因為 A220 已經達到了標準,我認為,從航空結構的角度來看,7500 已經從 35 上升到 40。我猜,售後市場可能會持平到上升。但我很難理解是什麼推動了明年的營收成長。

  • Mark J. Suchinski - Senior VP & CFO

    Mark J. Suchinski - Senior VP & CFO

  • Well, Cai, as we said, I indicated that we're looking at around mid-650s from a revenue standpoint, and we're projecting $700 million to $800 million, $800 million if some of the business jet and aftermarket business holds and does -- outperforms kind of where our heads are. But I don't think when you think about an increase in revenue from $650 million to around $700 million that we're talking about a substantial drop, right?

    好吧,蔡,正如我們所說,我表示我們從收入的角度來看大約是650 年代中期,我們預計7 億至8 億美元,如果一些公務機和售後市場業務保持不變,則為8 億美元——超出了我們的頭腦。但我認為,當你想到收入從 6.5 億美元增加到 7 億美元左右時,我們所說的並不是大幅下降,對嗎?

  • A little bit of benefits on the business jet side. I would expect that the 7500 will deliver a few more units. We'll produce a few more next year. We got a little bit of lift on the aftermarket side of things, right? And we -- as it relates to some of the discussion that we've had with Airbus on price, et cetera, could add some value as it relates to the A220 program.

    公務機方面有一些好處。我預計 7500 將交付更多的單位。明年我們會再生產一些。我們在售後市場方面得到了一些提升,對嗎?我們——因為這與我們與空中巴士公司就價格等問題進行的一些討論有關,可以增加一些與 A220 項目相關的價值。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question will come from Hunter Keay with Wolfe Research.

    我們的下一個問題將來自沃爾夫研究中心的亨特·凱伊。

  • Hunter Kent Keay - MD and Senior Analyst of Passenger Airlines, Aerospace & Defense

    Hunter Kent Keay - MD and Senior Analyst of Passenger Airlines, Aerospace & Defense

  • Quick follow-up to that last comment, Mark, when you talked about -- I was going to ask you what your shipset content was on 220 prior and pro forma. So I'd be curious about that. And then the second one is, Tom, what's your primary metric for how you measure employee productivity?

    馬克,當你談到時,我想問一下你的船內容在 220 之前和準備考試中是什麼。所以我對此很好奇。第二個問題是,湯姆,您衡量員工生產力的主要指標是什麼?

  • Mark J. Suchinski - Senior VP & CFO

    Mark J. Suchinski - Senior VP & CFO

  • Sure, Hunter. Real quick on the work statement on A220 today. Today, as it relates -- or the new A220 work that we're going to capture as part of this acquisition is, Tom talked a lot about the fully integrated composite wing. But there's some potential fuselage work, some center wingbox work to complement our propulsion package that we have on the A220, the pylon. So we're starting to have some sizable work statement as we add the work content from the Bombardier acquisition.

    當然,亨特。今天的 A220 工作聲明非常快。今天,正如它所涉及的——或者我們將在這次收購中捕捉到的新 A220 作品一樣,湯姆談論了很多關於完全集成的複合材料機翼的問題。但還有一些潛在的機身工作,一些中心翼盒工作,以補充我們在 A220 上的推進套件,即掛架。因此,當我們加入龐巴迪收購的工作內容時,我們開始有了一些相當大的工作說明。

  • Thomas C. Gentile - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas C. Gentile - President, CEO & Director

  • Right. And Hunter, and then to get to employee productivity. I'll focus on direct labor productivity. Our major metric is hours per unit, which we look at across every program and continue to work on that. And we look at we call it do what's due, but it's a realization metric, which is for the -- our schedule today for a particular unit, how many did we complete? So what was our effectiveness at executing the workload for today that was scheduled? So hours per unit and what we call do what's due. And we look at those metrics across all of our programs on a daily basis.

    正確的。亨特,然後是為了提高員工的生產力。我將重點放在直接勞動生產力上。我們的主要指標是每個單元的小時數,我們會在每個專案中都會考慮這一點,並繼續致力於此。我們稱之為“做到期的事”,但它是一個實現指標,它是針對——我們今天針對特定單元的計劃,我們完成了多少?那麼,我們執行今天安排的工作量的效率如何?因此,每個單位的小時數和我們所說的時間都是應得的。我們每天都會查看所有項目的這些指標。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question will come from Ron Epstein with Bank of America.

    我們的下一個問題將來自美國銀行的羅恩·愛潑斯坦。

  • Ronald Jay Epstein - Industry Analyst

    Ronald Jay Epstein - Industry Analyst

  • So we've discussed a lot of how you're restructuring the business and so on and so forth. Can you restructure how you do contracts that you've got more downside protection if another downturn of -- like this were to happen again? I mean is there a way to do these things so, below a certain point, you're cost-plus or something? Because, I mean, the situation we're in, I suppose, is once in a lifetime thing, but it might not be, right? I mean is there a better way to build downside protection into your contracts with the OEs?

    我們已經討論了很多關於如何重組業務等等的問題。如果像這樣的經濟低迷再次發生,您是否可以調整合約的執行方式,從而獲得更多的下行保護?我的意思是,有沒有一種方法可以做到這些事情,以便在低於某個點時,您可以增加成本或其他什麼?因為,我的意思是,我想,我們所處的情況是一生一次的事情,但也可能不是,對吧?我的意思是,是否有更好的方法可以在與原始設備製造商的合約中建立下行保護?

  • Thomas C. Gentile - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas C. Gentile - President, CEO & Director

  • Well, I mean, certainly, you can try. They're good negotiators. But -- and the one thing I would say is our biggest program is the MAX. And as we said before, our MAX contract is indexed to rate. So as rates go down, our price went up. And that's probably the best way to protect yourself in the event of a downturn because you just can't anticipate these things. But in that case, that contract being our biggest contract, that was a good contract, if you will, mechanism that helps with this downturn.

    嗯,我的意思是,當然,你可以嘗試。他們是優秀的談判者。但是——我要說的一件事是我們最大的計劃是 MAX。正如我們之前所說,我們的 MAX 合約與利率掛鉤。因此,隨著利率下降,我們的價格上漲。這可能是在經濟低迷時期保護自己的最佳方式,因為你無法預見這些事情。但在這種情況下,該合約是我們最大的合同,如果你願意的話,這是一份很好的合同,有助於應對經濟低迷的機制。

  • Short of that, we always work with our customers in terms of what are the best terms and conditions that make sense in the market and that we can live with. So there's always a large focus on quality and delivery. It's difficult to protect normally against downturns like this. I mean this is a once-in-a-millennium type of situation. But for our longer-term contracts, we also build in some escalation protection as well. So lots of different things that you can do, and it's always a negotiation based on what market conditions are and what the needs and requirements are of both parties at the time.

    除此之外,我們始終與客戶合作,制定市場上有意義且我們可以接受的最佳條款和條件。因此,品質和交付始終受到高度關注。正常情況下很難防範這樣的經濟衰退。我的意思是,這是千年一遇的情況。但對於我們的長期合同,我們也建立了一些升級保護。你可以做很多不同的事情,而且總是根據市場狀況以及雙方當時的需求和要求進行談判。

  • Ronald Jay Epstein - Industry Analyst

    Ronald Jay Epstein - Industry Analyst

  • But -- and if I may, on 787 specifically, I think you said at one point, you guys would be cash flow breakeven in '22. When does that happen now? Is it like '24, '25? I mean like...

    但是——如果可以的話,特別是在 787 上,我想你們曾經說過,你們將在 22 年實現現金流收支平衡。現在什麼時候發生這種事?是像「24」、「25」嗎?我的意思是像...

  • Thomas C. Gentile - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas C. Gentile - President, CEO & Director

  • No, we -- what we said is be positive in terms of cash flow and profitability when we get to line unit 1405. Now originally, that was in '22, '23 time period. Obviously, now with lower rates of production, that gets pushed out to the end of 2024, thereabouts.

    不,我們 - 我們所說的是,當我們到達 1405 號線時,現金流和盈利能力是積極的。現在最初,那是在 22 年、23 年時期。顯然,現在由於生產力較低,這項任務將被推遲到 2024 年底左右。

  • Ronald Jay Epstein - Industry Analyst

    Ronald Jay Epstein - Industry Analyst

  • And it's still 1405, that's still the same line number?

    而且還是 1405,還是同一個行號嗎?

  • Thomas C. Gentile - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas C. Gentile - President, CEO & Director

  • That's right, yes.

    沒錯,是的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question will come from Noah Poponak with Goldman Sachs.

    我們的下一個問題將來自高盛的諾亞波波納克。

  • Noah Poponak - Equity Analyst

    Noah Poponak - Equity Analyst

  • Quick clarification and then a longer-term question. The $800 million to $900 million of projected 2020 free cash burn that you've provided, does that include or exclude that I think you said $35 million to $40 million of Bombardier outflow in the fourth quarter?

    快速澄清,然後提出一個長期問題。您提供的預計 2020 年自由現金消耗為 8 億至 9 億美元,這是否包括或排除您所說的龐巴迪第四季度 3500 萬至 4000 萬美元的資金流出?

  • Mark J. Suchinski - Senior VP & CFO

    Mark J. Suchinski - Senior VP & CFO

  • It does not include the $35 million. The $800 million to $900 million is what we told you guys on our second quarter earnings call. That's the legacy business, excluding the Bombardier. I think we're going to be on the favorable side of that. And that does not include those onetime severance-related cash cost that will be incurred on the Bombardier acquisition, and we'll pay those out in November and December.

    其中不包括3500萬美元。 8億至9億美元是我們在第二季財報電話會議上告訴大家的。這是傳統業務,不包括龐巴迪。我認為我們會站在有利的一邊。這還不包括因收購龐巴迪而產生的一次性遣散費相關現金成本,我們將在 11 月和 12 月支付這些費用。

  • Noah Poponak - Equity Analyst

    Noah Poponak - Equity Analyst

  • Great. And then longer term, you've spoken to the mix change in the business from a revenue -- percentage of revenue perspective. If we're looking 3, 4, 5 years out, how should we think through the margin differential in defense versus aftermarket versus -- I mean, I know it's different by airplane program in the original equipment business. But just in the pieces you're adding, whether you want to frame it by defense versus aftermarket versus the Bombardier assets, just curious to hear you talk through the margin in those things that are mixing up.

    偉大的。從長遠來看,您從收入——收入百分比的角度談到了業務的組合變化。如果我們展望 3、4、5 年,我們應該如何考慮國防與售後市場的利潤差異——我的意思是,我知道原始設備業務中的飛機項目是不同的。但就在您添加的部分中,無論您是想透過防禦、售後市場還是龐巴迪資產來界定它,只是想聽聽您談論那些混合在一起的事情的利潤。

  • Thomas C. Gentile - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas C. Gentile - President, CEO & Director

  • Right. Well, as we go out for the next few years, obviously next year, the MAX program is still lower. So we would expect the Boeing percent of Spirit's revenue to increase again in the future as the production rates normalize.

    正確的。嗯,隨著我們未來幾年的發展,顯然明年,MAX 計劃仍然較低。因此,我們預計,隨著生產力正常化,未來波音公司佔 Spirit 收入的百分比將再次增加。

  • In terms of margin, our older, more mature programs tend to have higher margins, as you would normally expect. But the defense margins are what you typically expect in defense contracts. They don't go as high, but they also are more stable even in downturns. So those are in the kind of 12% to 14% range typically. So -- and that's what we would expect as we go forward on defense. And as I said, this year, our defense business grew about 20%. Next year, we're expecting 15%. And we've got line of sight to making it a $1 billion business in 2022-2023 time frame, which is a little bit ahead of what we originally thought going back a couple of years ago.

    就利潤率而言,正如您通常預期的那樣,我們較舊、更成熟的專案往往具有更高的利潤率。但防務利潤是您在國防合約中通常所期望的。它們的漲幅沒有那麼高,但即使在經濟低迷時期也更加穩定。所以這些通常在 12% 到 14% 的範圍內。所以——這就是我們在防守上前進時所期望的。正如我所說,今年我們的國防業務成長了約 20%。明年,我們預計為 15%。我們的目標是在 2022 年至 2023 年的時間範圍內使其成為價值 10 億美元的業務,這比我們幾年前最初的想法提前了一點。

  • On aftermarket, margins in aftermarket typically are higher. If you think of typical Spirit margins of 16.5%, aftermarket would be higher. And as we go forward -- it's going to be 8% of our business next year. As we go forward, it will continue to grow and become a bigger portion of Spirit's overall revenues in the future.

    在售後市場,售後市場的利潤通常較高。如果你考慮到典型的烈酒利潤率為 16.5%,那麼售後市場的利潤率會更高。隨著我們的前進,明年這將占我們業務的 8%。隨著我們的前進,它將繼續增長,並在未來成為 Spirit 總收入的更大部分。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question will come from Peter Arment with Baird.

    我們的下一個問題將來自彼得·阿門特和貝爾德。

  • Peter J. Arment - Senior Research Analyst

    Peter J. Arment - Senior Research Analyst

  • Tom, you gave a lot of details on Bombardier. On the synergy comment, the 6% in terms of expected synergies, can you give a rough time line on when you expect to kind of achieve that? And any kind of color you can give on that?

    湯姆,您提供了有關龐巴迪的許多詳細資訊。關於綜效的評論,就預期綜效而言,6%,您能否給出一個粗略的時間表,說明您預計何時實現這一目標?你可以給它任何顏色嗎?

  • Thomas C. Gentile - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas C. Gentile - President, CEO & Director

  • We're going to start immediately. But the full 6% will take us 3 years was our original projection. And we'll stick with that. Obviously, with the pandemic, lots of things have changed. But we still see lots of opportunity and we feel good about a 6% number in over a 3-year time period.

    我們要立即開始。但我們最初的預測是,要達到 6% 的目標需要 3 年。我們會堅持下去。顯然,隨著大流行,很多事情都改變了。但我們仍然看到很多機會,我們對 3 年多時間裡 6% 的數字感到滿意。

  • Peter J. Arment - Senior Research Analyst

    Peter J. Arment - Senior Research Analyst

  • Is the supply chain still the big -- one of the bigger opportunities that you kind of called out?

    供應鏈仍然是最大的——您所說的更大的機會之一嗎?

  • Thomas C. Gentile - President, CEO & Director

    Thomas C. Gentile - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes, we see that. And it's because Spirit has a lot of critical mass and scale in structures, more so than Bombardier did. And so as we bring our suppliers into the mix, we expect that we'll be able to get to a lot more competitive outcomes.

    是的,我們看到了。這是因為精神號在結構上具有很大的臨界質量和規模,比龐巴迪更重要。因此,當我們將供應商納入其中時,我們希望能夠獲得更具競爭力的結果。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our final question today will come from Mike Ciarmoli with Truist Securities.

    今天我們的最後一個問題將來自 Truist Securities 的 Mike Ciarmoli。

  • Michael Frank Ciarmoli - Research Analyst

    Michael Frank Ciarmoli - Research Analyst

  • I guess just back to the working capital and cash flow, looking specifically at inventory, I mean, it continues to remain high. Rates are lower. Should we just expect -- you've got all that long-lead material. Should we expect significant declines? Looking at inventory contract assets, we didn't see too much of a change sequentially. But are you having luck slowing down your incoming raw materials? Just trying to get a sense of where that specific line can go under these new reduced rates.

    我想回到營運資金和現金流,特別是庫存,我的意思是,它繼續保持在高位。利率較低。我們是否應該期待——你已經擁有了所有那些長期的材料。我們應該預期會大幅下降嗎?從庫存合約資產來看,我們沒有看到環比出現太大變化。但是您是否有運氣減緩原料的進貨速度?只是想了解一下在這些新的降低的費率下該特定線路的走向。

  • Mark J. Suchinski - Senior VP & CFO

    Mark J. Suchinski - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes. I mean you see the balance sheet. You look at what our inventory balances are and our business is 1/2 the size it was a year ago. We very quickly reduced -- 37 got shut down. We've gone through a series of production rate cuts. From a master scheduling standpoint, it takes a little time for us to slow the schedule down, feed it back to our supply chain. So there's no doubt we're carrying extra inventory right now.

    是的。我的意思是你看資產負債表。你看看我們的庫存餘額是多少,我們的業務規模只有一年前的 1/2。我們很快就減少了 37 個工廠關閉。我們經歷了一系列的生產力削減。從主調度的角度來看,我們需要一點時間來放慢進度,將其回饋給我們的供應鏈。因此,毫無疑問我們現在擁有額外的庫存。

  • And so from a planning standpoint, as we factor our factory and the needs from a part-consumption standpoint with what we have on hand, our supply chain team is working very diligently with our suppliers to align that up accordingly as we move through the rest of this year and into next year. And we saw some modest improvement in our inventory balances come down a bit between here at the end of the third quarter compared to the second. I expect our inventories to continue to improve as we move through the fourth quarter.

    因此,從規劃的角度來看,當我們從零件消耗的角度考慮我們的工廠以及我們現有的需求時,我們的供應鏈團隊正在與我們的供應商非常努力地合作,以便在我們完成其餘部分時相應地進行調整今年和明年。我們發現,與第二季末相比,第三季末我們的庫存餘額略有改善。我預計第四季我們的庫存將繼續改善。

  • And then in 2021, I do think from a working capital standpoint, we'll see some benefits because we have a lot of the parts. We were prepared for higher rates. And therefore, we're going to -- we have the parts, we need and we'll consume them, and we'll slow down the incoming receipt. Obviously, we'll have to focus and we'll continue to work with our supply chain.

    然後到 2021 年,我確實認為從營運資金的角度來看,我們會看到一些好處,因為我們有很多零件。我們已經做好了接受更高利率的準備。因此,我們將——我們擁有我們需要的零件,我們將消耗它們,我們將放慢收貨速度。顯然,我們必須集中精力,並繼續與我們的供應鏈合作。

  • We want to make sure our supply chain is healthy and they're in a position to go up in rate late next year and into 2022. So we really kind of balance both of that. We will definitely take advantage of, I think, making our inventory levels more efficient or more in alignment with what our current rates of production are. And so that will help out in 2021 as compared to where our inventory levels are now.

    我們希望確保我們的供應鏈是健康的,並且能夠在明年底和 2022 年之前提高價格。因此,我們確實在兩者之間取得了平衡。我認為,我們肯定會利用這一優勢,提高我們的庫存水平,或更符合我們目前的生產力。因此,與我們現在的庫存水準相比,這將在 2021 年有所幫助。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And this will conclude our question-and-answer session, also concluding today's call. We'd like to thank you for attending today's presentation. And at this time, you may now disconnect your lines, and have a great day.

    我們的問答環節就此結束,今天的電話會議也將結束。我們要感謝您參加今天的示範。此時,您可以斷開線路,享受美好的一天。