Spirit AeroSystems Holdings Inc (SPR) 2019 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc.'s Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2019 Earnings Conference Call.

早安，女士們、先生們，歡迎參加 Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. 的 2019 年第四季和全年收益電話會議。

My name is Andrea, and I'll be your coordinator today.

我叫安德里亞，今天我將擔任你們的協調員。

(Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

（操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。

I would now like to turn the presentation over to Ryan Avey, Director of Investor Relations.

我現在想將演講交給投資者關係總監 Ryan Avey。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you, Andrea, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，安德里亞，大家早安。

Welcome to Spirit's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2019 Earnings Call.

歡迎參加 Spirit 2019 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。

I'm Ryan Avey, Director of Investor Relations.

我是投資者關係總監 Ryan Avey。

And with me today are Spirit's President and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Gentile; and Spirit's Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Mark Suchinski.

今天和我在一起的還有 Spirit 的總裁兼執行長 Tom Gentile； Spirit 的高級副總裁兼財務長 Mark Suchinski。

After opening comments by Tom and Mark regarding our performance and outlook, we will take your questions.

在湯姆和馬克對我們的業績和前景發表評論後，我們將回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Before we begin, I need to remind you that any projections or goals we may include in our discussion today are likely to involve risks, which are detailed in our earnings release and our SEC filings and in the forward-looking statement at the end of this web presentation.

在我們開始之前，我需要提醒您，我們今天討論中可能包含的任何預測或目標都可能涉及風險，這些風險在我們的收益發布和SEC 文件以及本新聞稿末尾的前瞻性聲明中進行了詳細說明。網路示範。

In addition, we refer you to our earnings release and presentation for disclosures and reconciliation of non-GAAP measures we use when discussing our results.

此外，我們建議您參閱我們的收益發布和演示文稿，以了解我們在討論結果時使用的非公認會計準則衡量標準的揭露和調節。

And as a reminder, you can follow today's broadcast and slide presentation on our website at investor.spiritaero.com.

提醒一下，您可以在我們的網站 Investor.spiritaero.com 上關註今天的廣播和幻燈片演示。

With that, I would like to turn the call over to our Chief Executive Officer, Tom Gentile.

說到這裡，我想將電話轉給我們的執行長 Tom Gentile。

Thank you, Ryan, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝瑞安，大家早安。

Welcome to Spirit's 2019 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Earnings Call.

歡迎參加 Spirit 2019 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。

I'd like to start today by welcoming our new Chief Financial Officer, Mark Suchinski.

今天首先我要歡迎我們新任財務長馬克‧蘇欽斯基 (Mark Suchinski)。

Mark is a long-tenured and respected leader at Spirit, particularly within the finance team where he held a variety of key roles from 2006 to 2018, including serving as Controller and Principal Accounting Officer from 2014 to 2018.

Mark 是 Spirit 的長期任職且受人尊敬的領導者，特別是在財務團隊中，他從 2006 年至 2018 年擔任過各種關鍵職務，包括從 2014 年至 2018 年擔任財務總監和首席會計官。

Most recently, Mark was our Vice President of Quality, and before that, VP of the 787 Program.

最近，Mark 擔任我們的品質副總裁，在此之前，擔任 787 專案副總裁。

He brings a comprehensive understanding of our business and has strong relationships with both internal and external stakeholders.

他對我們的業務有全面的了解，並與內部和外部利害關係人建立了牢固的關係。

Let's move on to the 737 MAX.

讓我們繼續討論 737 MAX。

I want to re-emphasize that while the current situation regarding the MAX is challenging, we remain confident in the long-term outlook for the aircraft.

我想再次強調，雖然目前 MAX 的情況充滿挑戰，但我們對飛機的長期前景仍然充滿信心。

The Boeing MAX backlog remains strong at approximately 4,400 aircraft and there have been no significant cancellations.

波音 MAX 飛機積壓量依然強勁，約 4,400 架，且沒有出現重大取消飛機的情況。

Air traffic growth was solid in 2019 at 4.2%.

2019 年航空運輸量穩健成長 4.2%。

2020 will be impacted by the coronavirus but expectations for long-term growth remain healthy.

2020 年將受到冠狀病毒的影響，但長期增長的預期仍然健康。

The MAX is critical to meet this demand for air traffic, especially given the high utilization of narrow-bodies and the MAX's range and mission.

MAX 對於滿足這種空中交通需求至關重要，特別是考慮到窄體飛機的高利用率以及 MAX 的航程和任務。

And Spirit manufactures 70% of the structure of the MAX, including the entire fuselage.

Spirit 製造了 MAX 70% 的結構，包括整個機身。

In short, the MAX is an important aircraft for the global aviation system and Spirit is one of the key suppliers to the program.

簡而言之，MAX 是全球航空系統的重要飛機，而 Spirit 是該計劃的主要供應商之一。

We are proud to be a partner on the MAX program, and we will support Boeing as they work with the FAA and other global regulators to return it safely to service.

我們很榮幸成為 MAX 計畫的合作夥伴，我們將支持波音公司與美國聯邦航空管理局和其他全球監管機構合作，使其安全恢復服務。

Given the delay in the MAX re-entry back to service, Boeing made the decision on December 16 to suspend deliveries beginning in January and directed Spirit to do the same on December 19.

鑑於 MAX 重新投入營運的延遲，波音公司於 12 月 16 日決定從 1 月開始暫停交付，並指示 Spirit 於 12 月 19 日也這樣做。

On December 20, we announced a production suspension and began taking immediate actions to align our cost structure with expected lower levels of production in 2020.

12 月 20 日，我們宣布暫停生產，並開始立即採取行動，使我們的成本結構與 2020 年預期較低的生產水準保持一致。

We took a number of actions.

我們採取了一些行動。

First, we directed our own suppliers to halt incoming deliveries to Spirit.

首先，我們指示自己的供應商停止向 Spirit 供貨。

We implemented a workforce reduction of approximately 2,800 employees in Wichita and 400 employees in Oklahoma.

我們在威奇托裁減了約 2,800 名員工，在俄克拉荷馬州裁減了 400 名員工。

We also initiated a voluntary retirement program for both hourly and salaried workers.

我們也為小時工和受薪工人啟動了自願退休計劃。

Further, we are reducing CapEx spend, deferring all but the most necessary expenditures.

此外，我們正在減少資本支出，推遲除最必要的支出之外的所有支出。

We've also created internal teams led by senior executives to manage and tightly control all of our indirect and discretionary expenditures.

我們也建立了由高階主管領導的內部團隊來管理和嚴格控制我們所有的間接和可自由支配的支出。

Additionally, we extended our IAM union contract for approximately 9,000 workers for 3 years.

此外，我們還將約 9,000 名工人的 IAM 工會合約延長了 3 年。

The previous contract was set to expire on June 26 of this year.

此前的合約原定於今年6月26日到期。

We jointly agreed with the IAM to work on the contract extension early so that we could focus solely on the MAX situation.

我們與 IAM 共同同意儘早進行合約延期工作，以便我們可以專注於 MAX 情況。

On January 30, we reached an agreement with Boeing regarding production and deliveries for 2020.

1月30日，我們與波音公司就2020年的生產和交付達成了協議。

We will produce and deliver 216 shipsets in 2020 compared to 606 shipsets in 2019.

我們將在 2020 年生產和交付 216 艘船舶，而 2019 年為 606 艘。

We will restart production slowly in the coming months, ramping up deliveries through the year to deliver about 70% in the back half of 2020.

我們將在未來幾個月緩慢恢復生產，提高全年交付量，並在 2020 年下半年交付約 70%。

We do not expect to return to 52 shipsets per month until late 2022.

我們預計要到 2022 年底才能恢復到每月 52 艘船。

Of course, this agreement is based on several assumptions, including the timing of the 737 MAX return to service and Boeing's expected production rate.

當然，該協議是基於幾個假設，包括 737 MAX 恢復服務的時間和波音的預期生產率。

In addition, as part of this agreement, Boeing will pay $225 million to Spirit, consisting of 2 parts.

此外，作為協議的一部分，波音公司將向Spirit支付2.25億美元，由兩部分組成。

The first part is $70 million in support of our inventory and production stabilization, of which we will repay $10 million in 2021.

第一部分是 7000 萬美元，用於支持我們的庫存和生產穩定，我們將在 2021 年償還其中 1000 萬美元。

The second part is $155 million, which is an incremental prepayment for deliveries over the next 2 years.

第二部分是1.55億美元，這是未來兩年交付的增量預付款。

Other terms of the agreement include extending the repayment of the $123 million advance we received last year until 2022 and extending the 737 MAX contract through 2033.

該協議的其他條款包括將我們去年收到的 1.23 億美元預付款的償還期延長至 2022 年，並將 737 MAX 合約延長至 2033 年。

It previously expired in 2030.

它之前於 2030 年到期。

Importantly, the agreement also includes the creation of a Boeing-Spirit joint task force to monitor the health of Spirit's 737 MAX supply chain.

重要的是，該協議還包括成立波音-Spirit 聯合工作小組，以監控 Spirit 737 MAX 供應鏈的健康狀況。

As production resumes this year and Boeing advances to its target of 57 airplanes per month in the future, we expect several years of strong double-digit compound annual growth.

隨著今年生產的恢復以及波音公司未來每月生產 57 架飛機的目標，我們預計未來幾年將實現強勁的兩位數複合年增長率。

This growth will be easier for us to execute for a number of reasons.

由於多種原因，這種增長對我們來說將更容易執行。

First, we have already transitioned to 100% MAX production.

首先，我們已經過渡到 100% MAX 生產。

Over the last few years, as we were increasing in rate, at the same time, we were shifting from the NG to the MAX.

在過去的幾年裡，隨著我們的速度不斷提高，同時我們也從 NG 轉向 MAX。

Today, the only NGs that we still produce are P-8s for the Navy, which average about 2 aircraft per month.

如今，我們仍在生產的唯一 NG 是為海軍生產的 P-8，平均每月生產約 2 架。

We have previously produced up to 57 aircraft per month, which we achieved in early 2019 just prior to the MAX grounding.

此前，我們每月生產多達 57 架飛機，這是我們在 2019 年初 MAX 停飛之前實現的。

And we have experience at each of the production levels we're going to see up to that level.

我們在每個生產水平上都有經驗，我們將看到達到該水平。

We already have all the capital and tooling in place to achieve these higher production rates.

我們已經擁有實現更高生產力的所有資本和工具。

Finally, we are taking advantage of the slow period to train our workers, streamline our factories, do maintenance and improve manufacturing process flows so we can come back more efficient with higher levels of quality.

最後，我們正在利用緩慢的時期來培訓我們的工人，精簡我們的工廠，進行維護並改進製造流程，以便我們能夠以更高的品質水準提高效率。

We have identified a number of initiatives we can leverage in this transition period that would be harder to achieve during full rate production.

我們已經確定了許多可以在這個過渡時期利用的舉措，而這些舉措在全速生產期間很難實現。

These projects include things like accelerating the full transition of our new global digital logistics center, optimizing the product flow for 2 separate 737 fuselage sections, the wing box and the forward fuselage.

這些項目包括加速我們新的全球數位物流中心的全面轉型，優化 2 個獨立的 737 機身部分、翼盒和前機身的產品流程。

And pulling forward digitization projects for our operating system.

並推進我們作業系統的數位化專案。

Next, I want to address near-term cash and liquidity, which is a major focus for us right now.

接下來，我想談談近期現金和流動性，這是我們目前的主要關注點。

Our strong 2019 cash performance, combined with our decision to pause share repurchases, helped to create a healthy cash balance by the end of 2019.

我們 2019 年強勁的現金表現，加上我們暫停股票回購的決定，幫助我們在 2019 年底之前創造了健康的現金餘額。

Additionally, we drew $800 million on our revolver in late December shortly after Boeing directed us to suspend production in order to proactively protect liquidity given the uncertainty.

此外，在波音公司指示我們暫停生產以在不確定性的情況下主動保護流動性後不久，我們於 12 月底從左輪手槍中提取了 8 億美元。

We ended 2019 with $2.4 billion in cash on our balance sheet.

2019 年末，我們的資產負債表上有 24 億美元的現金。

Given the 737 program is our largest contributor of cash and it represents half our revenue, the production halt and slow subsequent production ramp will be challenging in terms of cash flow for the first half of 2020.

鑑於 737 項目是我們最大的現金貢獻者，占我們收入的一半，停產和隨後緩慢的產量增長將對 2020 年上半年的現金流構成挑戰。

We have taken a number of proactive measures to improve our near-term liquidity in addition to the cost mitigation actions I just described.

除了我剛才描述的降低成本的措施之外，我們還採取了許多積極措施來改善我們的短期流動性。

Let me go over those.

讓我回顧一下這些。

Given the significance of the 737 program to Spirit, we reduced our quarterly dividend from $0.12 to $0.01 to preserve liquidity until production rates are at higher levels.

鑑於 737 計劃對 Spirit 的重要性，我們將季度股息從 0.12 美元減少到 0.01 美元，以保持流動性，直到生產力達到更高水平。

As stated above, we also deferred repayment of the $123 million cash advance from Boeing that we agreed in our April 2019 agreement from 2020 until 2022.

如上所述，我們也將 2019 年 4 月協議中同意的波音 1.23 億美元現金預付款的償還期限從 2020 年推遲到 2022 年。

We have also entered into a $375 million short-term delayed draw term loan facility which ensures access to additional funds if we need them.

我們還簽訂了 3.75 億美元的短期延遲提取定期貸款協議，確保我們在需要時能夠獲得額外資金。

This facility matures in the third quarter of this year or 45 days after the FAA recertifies the 737 MAX, whichever is earlier.

該設施將於今年第三季或 FAA 重新認證 737 MAX 後 45 天成熟，以較早者為準。

To provide ourselves with a further liquidity cushion, we are planning to raise additional capital in the bond market this year.

為了給自己進一步的流動性緩衝，我們計劃今年在債券市場籌集額外資金。

The plan is to use this longer-term funding to pay off some of our shorter-term financing, including the revolver.

該計劃是利用這筆長期資金來償還我們的一些短期融資，包括左輪手槍。

In terms of cash uses, we have 2 previously announced acquisitions expected to close this year: Asco and selected assets of Bombardier's aerostructures business.

在現金使用方面，我們先前宣布的兩項收購預計將於今年完成：Asco 和龐巴迪航空結構業務的選定資產。

In addition, we closed one smaller defense-related acquisition in January, which I am very excited about, and will go into more detail shortly.

此外，我們在一月份完成了一項規模較小的國防相關收購，我對此感到非常興奮，並將很快詳細介紹。

All 3 of these acquisitions are aligned with our strategy of increasing our Airbus defense, fabrication and aftermarket content.

這三項收購都符合我們增加空中巴士國防、製造和售後市場內容的策略。

We remain committed to these acquisitions, all of which contribute positively to our revenue, profit and cash flow in the coming years.

我們仍然致力於這些收購，所有這些收購都對我們未來幾年的收入、利潤和現金流做出積極貢獻。

Collectively, these 3 deals at closing will require about $1 billion of cash in 2020, of which $120 million has already been paid.

總的來說，這 3 筆交易在 2020 年完成時將需要約 10 億美元現金，其中 1.2 億美元已經支付。

As a result of our proactive balance sheet management and cash mitigation actions since the MAX grounding, we are confident in our liquidity position to manage through the MAX situation under likely near-term scenarios.

自 MAX 擱淺以來，由於我們採取了積極的資產負債表管理和現金緩解措施，我們對在近期可能出現的情況下應對 MAX 情況的流動性狀況充滿信心。

Let's move on to Q4 now.

現在讓我們進入第四季。

Performance in Q4 was mixed.

第四季的表現好壞參半。

The announcement by Boeing that they had reduced 787 rate from 12 aircraft per month to 10 resulted in a $34 million forward loss in Q4.

波音公司宣布將 787 飛機的運輸量從每月 12 架飛機減少到 10 架，導致第四季的預期損失達 3,400 萬美元。

On 737, we saw significant disruption as we spent money early in the quarter on overtime and contractors to meet delivery and quality requirements for 2019, only to then see a suspension of production which caused us to extend our holiday shutdown period and take several units out of our production plan.

在737 上，我們看到了嚴重的中斷，因為我們在本季度初就在加班費和承包商上投入了資金，以滿足2019 年的交付和品質要求，結果卻出現生產暫停，導致我們延長了假期停工期並停產了幾台飛機我們的生產計劃。

Once we resume production of the 737 MAX, our goal is to stabilize the production system and return to our historically strong delivery and quality performance while we focus on recovering margins to our target levels.

一旦我們恢復 737 MAX 的生產，我們的目標是穩定生產系統並恢復到歷史上強勁的交付和品質表現，同時我們專注於將利潤率恢復到目標水平。

For 2020, improving quality while managing costs and ramping to higher rates of 737 production will be our #1 priority.

2020 年，在管理成本的同時提高品質並提高 737 的產量將是我們的第一要務。

At the same time and equally as important, we are not slowing down on our long-term inorganic growth and diversification strategy.

同時，同樣重要的是，我們不會放緩長期無機成長和多元化策略。

Our strategic priorities for inorganic growth are Airbus defense, fabrication and aftermarket.

我們的無機成長策略重點是空中巴士國防、製造和售後市場。

As I mentioned earlier, in January, we completed a small but very strategic acquisition of a company called FMI for $120 million.

正如我之前提到的，1 月份，我們以 1.2 億美元完成了對一家名為 FMI 的公司的小型但非常具有戰略意義的收購。

FMI is an industry-leading technology company specializing in high-temperature materials and composites primarily for defense, with several applications on hypersonic missiles.

FMI 是一家業界領先的技術公司，專門生產主要用於國防的高溫材料和複合材料，並在高超音速飛彈上有多種應用。

FMI is the sole source on several legacy strategic defense programs and they are partnered with the defense primes as well as the Department of Defense.

FMI 是多個傳統戰略防禦計劃的唯一來源，並與國防總理以及國防部合作。

FMI makes 3D woven carbon-carbon composite nose cones and throttles on vehicles like missiles, requiring temperatures above 4,000 degrees.

FMI 在飛彈等車輛上製造 3D 編織碳-碳複合材料鼻錐和節流閥，要求溫度高於 4,000 度。

Their performance on several Air Force and Navy programs over the last couple of decades has earned FMI attractive positions on strategic defense applications.

過去幾十年來，FMI 在多個空軍和海軍項目中的表現為 FMI 在戰略防禦應用領域贏得了相當吸引人的地位。

Acquiring FMI aligns with Spirit's strategic growth objectives to diversify its customer base and expand our current defense business.

收購 FMI 符合 Spirit 的策略成長目標，即實現客戶群多元化並擴大我們目前的國防業務。

FMI's advanced capabilities in high-temperature materials, combined with Spirit's expertise in industrializing next-generation aerostructures, creates a critical capability to industrialize state-of-the-art defense technologies essential for the advancement of hypersonic weapons, which the Department of Defense has identified as a national priority.

FMI 在高溫材料方面的先進能力，與Spirit 在下一代航空結構工業化方面的專業知識相結合，創造了一種關鍵能力，可以將最先進的國防技術工業化，這對高超音速武器的發展至關重要，國防部已經確定了這一點作為國家優先事項。

The Asco acquisition will increase our Airbus defense and fabrication footprint.

收購 Asco 將擴大我們的空中巴士國防和製造業務。

Asco's revenue is 50% Airbus with exclusive and sole source positions on all the Airbus programs for slats and other wing mechanisms.

Asco 的收入佔空中巴士公司 50% 的份額，在所有空中巴士縫翼和其他機翼機構項目中擁有獨家和唯一的來源地位。

Asco also grows our defense content on the F-35 program and expands our fabrication capability and capacity.

Asco 也增加了 F-35 項目的國防內容，並擴大了我們的製造能力和產能。

Asco has resumed its operations following the cyberattack it experienced last year, and we remain on track to meet all the conditions to close this transaction in 2020.

Asco 在去年遭受網路攻擊後已恢復運營，我們仍有望滿足 2020 年完成這筆交易的所有條件。

The Bombardier aerostructures acquisition solidifies our long-term relationship with Airbus through the A220 wing and the A320neo thrust reverser.

收購龐巴迪航空結構公司透過 A220 機翼和 A320neo 推力反向器鞏固了我們與空中巴士公司的長期合作關係。

The acquisition also doubles our high-margin aftermarket business and adds significant business jet fuselage, propulsion and wing product revenue to our portfolio.

此次收購也使我們的高利潤售後市場業務增加了一倍，並為我們的產品組合增加了重要的公務機機身、推進和機翼產品收入。

This acquisition adds intellectual property in the form of state-of-the-art resin transfer infusion carbon fiber composite fabrication which is used on the A220 wing and positions Spirit well for the next-generation narrow-body aircraft.

此次收購以最先進的樹脂轉移灌注碳纖維複合材料製造的形式增加了智慧財產權，該材料用於 A220 機翼，並為 Spirit 下一代窄體飛機奠定了良好的基礎。

We expect to close on this transaction later this year.

我們預計將於今年稍後完成這筆交易。

With that, I'll ask Mark to lead you through the detailed 2019 financial results.

接下來，我將請馬克帶領您了解詳細的 2019 年財務表現。

Mark?

標記？

Thank you, Tom, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，湯姆，大家早安。

Before I begin, I want to thank Tom and the Board for their confidence in asking me to take on this new role.

在開始之前，我要感謝湯姆和董事會對我的信任，讓我擔任這個新角色。

While I'm new to the CFO position, I am not new to the company.

雖然我是財務長職位的新人，但我對公司並不陌生。

I look forward to leveraging my finance and operations experience to help us navigate through the challenges and uncertainties that have resulted from the 737 MAX situation.

我期待利用我的財務和營運經驗來幫助我們應對 737 MAX 情況帶來的挑戰和不確定性。

These are challenging times not only for Spirit, but also across the entire aerospace industry.

現在不僅對 Spirit 來說，而且對整個航空航太業來說都是充滿挑戰的時期。

I am confident that we are prudently managing the situation in the right way, and I'm optimistic about the company's strong future ahead.

我相信我們正在以正確的方式審慎地管理局勢，並且我對公司未來的強勁未來感到樂觀。

As we previously announced on January 30, the company conducted an accounting review.

正如我們之前在 1 月 30 日宣布的那樣，該公司進行了會計審查。

As a result of the review, the company determined that it did not comply with its established accounting processes with respect to certain potential contingent liabilities received after the end of the third quarter of 2019.

審查結果顯示，該公司認為，對於 2019 年第三季末後收到的某些潛在或有負債，其未遵守既定的會計流程。

After conducting the appropriate accounting review with respect to those potential contingent liabilities, the company concluded that it should have recorded an incremental contingent liability in the third quarter financial results of less than $8 million, and we have recorded the appropriate amount in Q4.

在對這些潛在的或有負債進行適當的會計審查後，該公司得出的結論是，它應該在第三季度財務業績中記錄少於800 萬美元的增量或有負債，並且我們在第四季度記錄了適當的金額。

This amount is not material to our third quarter results and does not require a restatement of our financial statements.

這筆金額對我們第三季的業績並不重要，也不需要重述我們的財務報表。

However, we have determined that the noncompliance resulted in a material weakness in our internal controls over financial reporting.

然而，我們確定，違規行為導致我們對財務報告的內部控制有重大缺陷。

We have corrective action in place and expect the material weakness in financial reporting to be fully remediated by the end of the year.

我們已採取糾正措施，預計財務報告中的重大缺陷將在年底前全面糾正。

Since being appointed as Chief Financial Officer about a month ago, I have done a deep dive into the company's financial results and can confidently summarize those for you today.

自從大約一個月前被任命為財務長以來，我深入研究了公司的財務業績，今天可以自信地為大家總結這些結果。

Please move to Slide 5.

請移至投影片 5。

Revenue for the year was $7.9 billion, up 9% from the prior year.

全年營收為 79 億美元，比上年成長 9%。

This growth was driven by higher volumes of production on the 777, 787 and A350 programs; higher revenue recognized on the 787 program; increased aftermarket activity and favorable 737 model mix.

這一增長是由 777、787 和 A350 項目產量增加所推動的； 787 計劃確認的收入更高；售後市場活動增加，737 機型組合受到青睞。

Let's now turn to earnings per share on Slide 6. We reported adjusted EPS of $5.54 per share compared to $6.26 in 2018.

現在讓我們來看看幻燈片 6 上的每股盈餘。我們報告的調整後每股收益為 5.54 美元，而 2018 年為 6.26 美元。

The 2019 adjusted EPS excludes the impact of expenses related to the acquisitions and the voluntary retirement program announced in the second quarter of 2019.

2019年調整後每股盈餘不包括2019年第二季宣布的收購和自願退休計畫相關費用的影響。

The adjusted EPS decreased year-over-year primarily due to forward losses recognized in the 787 program resulting from Boeing's announcements to decrease production from 14 to 10 aircraft per month; reduced profitability on the 737 program, largely resulting from the impact of the MAX grounding, partially offset by higher production volumes on the 737 and 777 programs.

調整後每股收益年減，主要是由於波音宣布將產量從每月 14 架飛機減少到 10 架，導致 787 項目確認了遠期損失； 737 專案的獲利能力下降，主要是由於 MAX 停飛的影響，但部分被 737 和 777 專案的產量增加所抵消。

The forward losses on the 787 program reflects the impact of fixed cost absorption due to extending the current accounting block, which runs through line unit 1405, and will now close in the first quarter of 2023.

787 計劃的遠期損失反映了由於擴展當前會計區塊而吸收固定成本的影響，該會計區塊貫穿第 1405 行單元，現已於 2023 年第一季關閉。

As Tom mentioned, fourth quarter performance was mixed.

正如湯姆所提到的，第四季的表現好壞參半。

In addition to the fixed cost absorption impact on the 787 from decreased production rate of 12 to 10 aircraft per month, we continue to have elevated costs on the 737 program due to production disruption and our efforts to improve quality.

除了每月生產 12 架至 10 架飛機的產量下降對 787 產生固定成本吸收影響外，由於生產中斷和我們提高品質的努力，我們的 737 專案成本持續上升。

The 737 production suspension also impacted the number of units in the accounting contract, which led to increased costs being recognized in the fourth quarter.

737 停產也影響了會計合約中的飛機數量，導致第四季度確認成本增加。

Also as mentioned on the last earnings call, there was a contractual price step-down on the A350 program in the fourth quarter.

正如上次財報電話會議中提到的，第四季度 A350 項目的合約價格有所下降。

Lastly, the fourth quarter was also impacted by a number of one-off nonrecurring type items.

最後，第四季也受到一些一次性非經常性項目的影響。

These items include an additional forward loss on the BR725 program due to a block extension, asset write-offs and a few other smaller items.

這些項目包括 BR725 計劃由於區塊延期、資產註銷和其他一些較小項目而產生的額外遠期損失。

Looking ahead to the 2020 financial reports, it's important to note that per GAAP, we will be recognizing excess costs resulting from the 737 MAX production suspension and subsequent production recovery schedule separate from normal production contract costs.

展望 2020 年財務報告，值得注意的是，根據 GAAP，我們將確認因 737 MAX 生產暫停和隨後的生產恢復計劃而產生的超額成本，與正常生產合約成本分開。

We will recognize excess or abnormal expenses related to the idle plant and subsequent abnormally low rate as unallocated segment cost of sales.

我們將確認與閒置工廠相關的超額或異常費用以及隨後的異常低利率作為未分配的分部銷售成本。

Further, these abnormal costs will be recognized and reported in the period in which they occur as opposed to normal production costs which are allocated to an accounting contract which could be spread over multiple periods.

此外，這些異常成本將在其發生的期間內得到確認和報告，而不是分配到可以分攤到多個期間的會計合約的正常生產成本。

As a result, these excess costs associated with the production suspension as well as the subsequent low rate production will be reflected as period results beginning in the first quarter of 2020 and will continue until the production resources are utilized at normal capacity.

因此，與生產暫停以及隨後的低產量相關的這些超額成本將反映在 2020 年第一季開始的期間業績中，並將持續到生產資源以正常產能利用為止。

Additionally, costs relating to restructuring, which include expenses such as those related to workforce reductions, will be reported separately on the income statement.

此外，與重組相關的成本，包括與裁員相關的費用，將在損益表中單獨報告。

Now turning to free cash flow on Page 7. Adjusted to exclude the impacts of the planned acquisitions, free cash flow for the year was $723 million compared to $565 million in 2018.

現在轉向第 7 頁的自由現金流。排除計畫收購的影響後，今年的自由現金流為 7.23 億美元，而 2018 年為 5.65 億美元。

This reflects a 28% increase year-over-year driven by several factors, including a $123 million cash advance received from Boeing in the third quarter, our continued focus on working capital and capital spend as well as lower cash taxes.

這反映了由多種因素推動的同比增長 28%，包括第三季度從波音收到的 1.23 億美元現金預付款、我們繼續關注營運資本和資本支出以及較低的現金稅。

Capital expenditures for the year were $232 million compared to $271 million in 2018.

今年的資本支出為 2.32 億美元，而 2018 年為 2.71 億美元。

During the first half of 2019, soon after the MAX was grounded, we took actions to review all capital expenditure projects in order to determine which could be deferred or delayed in order to reduce the amount of capital spend to a range of $200 million to $250 million as compared to our previously forecasted range of $250 million to $300 million.

2019 年上半年，MAX 停飛後不久，我們採取行動審查所有資本支出項目，以確定哪些可以推遲或延遲，從而將資本支出金額減少到 2 億至 250 美元之間百萬美元，而我們之前的預測範圍為2.5 億至3 億美元。

We plan to continue this process during 2020 and expect to spend around $150 million on capital expenditures.

我們計劃在 2020 年繼續這一過程，預計資本支出約為 1.5 億美元。

2020 will be a difficult year, especially in terms of cash.

2020年將是艱難的一年，尤其是在現金方面。

And I can assure you that we will be diligently managing our liquidity and adjusting our cost structure to align to the lower levels of production.

我可以向您保證，我們將努力管理我們的流動性並調整我們的成本結構，以適應較低的生產水準。

Currently, we're projecting negative overall free cash flow for 2020 with the majority of cash burn during the first half of the year.

目前，我們預計 2020 年整體自由現金流為負，其中大部分現金消耗發生在上半年。

However, as we increase MAX production rates and begin to realize the benefits of our cost mitigation actions, we expect positive free cash flow on a run rate basis by the end of the year.

然而，隨著我們提高最大生產力並開始認識到成本削減行動的好處，我們預計到今年年底，按運行率計算將出現正的自由現金流。

In addition, we amended our credit agreements to provide covenant relief through the end of the first quarter of 2021.

此外，我們還修改了信貸協議，以在 2021 年第一季末之前提供契約減免。

At which point, we expect to achieve sustained performance throughout the year from a stable and increasing MAX production rate and will also benefit from the full year contributions to earnings and cash flow from the acquisitions.

屆時，我們預計將透過穩定且不斷增長的最大生產力實現全年持續業績，並將受益於收購對全年盈利和現金流的貢獻。

The covenant relief demonstrates the support and confidence of our lenders in Spirit.

聖約救濟顯示了我們的貸款人在精神上的支持和信心。

Now let's turn to our segment performance on Slide 8. Fuselage segment revenue in the year was $4.2 billion, up 5% from 2018 primarily due to higher production volumes on the 777 and 787 programs and increased aftermarket activities, partially offset by lower production volumes on the Boeing 737 program.

現在讓我們轉向幻燈片8 中的細分市場表現。本年度機身細分市場收入為42 億美元，比2018 年增長5%，這主要是由於777 和787 項目的產量增加以及售後市場活動的增加，部分被777 和787 項目產量的減少所抵消。波音 737 計劃。

Operating margin for the year was 10.5% compared to 14.4% in the prior year primarily due to the 787 forward losses recognized as a result of Boeing's announced rate decreases and higher costs related to the 737 program.

本年度的營業利潤率為 10.5%，而前一年為 14.4%，這主要是由於波音宣布降低利率以及與 737 項目相關的成本上升而確認了 787 遠期損失。

On a normalized basis, after reversing changes in estimates from the prior periods, fuselage segment margin was 11.4% compared 14.4% last year.

在標準化基礎上，在扭轉前期預測變化後，機身部分利潤率為 11.4%，而去年為 14.4%。

In the fourth quarter, we continued to incur costs due to the production slowdown and efforts to improve quality on the 737 program.

第四季度，由於生產放緩和提高 737 專案品質的努力，我們繼續產生成本。

We are taking full advantage of the production suspension and the slow ramp in production rate throughout this year to further optimize our production system, which will lead to improved operational metrics and lower costs going forward.

我們正在充分利用今年停產和生產力緩慢上升的機會，進一步優化我們的生產系統，這將導致未來營運指標的改善和成本的降低。

Additionally, the price step-down on the A350 program impacted the fourth quarter profit.

此外，A350 項目的降價也影響了第四季的利潤。

In 2019, propulsion revenue was $2.1 billion, up 21% compared to the prior year primarily driven by higher production volumes on the 737, 777 and A220 programs as well as favorable model mix on the 737 program.

2019 年，推進系統收入為 21 億美元，比上年增長 21%，這主要是由於 737、777 和 A220 項目產量增加以及 737 項目有利的型號組合推動的。

Operating margin for the year was 19.7% compared to 16.7% in 2018 primarily due to performance and favorable model mix on the 737 program.

今年的營業利潤率為 19.7%，而 2018 年為 16.7%，這主要歸功於 737 項目的性能和有利的機型組合。

On a normalized basis, after reversing change in estimates, our propulsion segment margin was 20.5%, up compared to 16.7% in 2018.

在標準化的基礎上，在扭轉預測變化後，我們的推進部門利潤率為 20.5%，高於 2018 年的 16.7%。

In 2019, wing revenue was $1.6 billion, up 5% compared to 2018, driven by higher production volumes on the Boeing 787 and Airbus A350 programs.

2019 年，由於波音 787 和空中巴士 A350 專案產量增加，機翼收入為 16 億美元，較 2018 年成長 5%。

Operating margin for the year was 13.6% compared to 15% in 2018 primarily due to 787 forward losses recognized as a result of Boeing's production rate decrease, performance on the 737 program as well as pricing on the A350 program.

本年度的營業利潤率下降、737 項目的表現以及 A350 項目的定價導致 787 預期損失。

On a normalized basis, after reversing change in estimate impacts, wing segment margin was 14.2% compared to 14.8% in 2018.

在標準化基礎上，扭轉估計影響變化後，機翼部分利潤率為 14.2%，而 2018 年為 14.8%。

As Tom mentioned in his opening remarks, there is still a lot of uncertainty surrounding the timing of the MAX's return to service.

正如湯姆在開場白中提到的那樣，MAX 恢復服務的時間仍然存在許多不確定性。

And as a result, we will not be providing full year 2020 guidance at this time.

因此，我們目前不會提供 2020 年全年指引。

We expect to slowly restart production in March and then gradually ramp throughout the year.

我們預計將在 3 月緩慢恢復生產，然後全年逐步恢復生產。

For the year, we plan to produce a total of 216 MAX units, of which 70% will be produced during the second half of the year.

今年，我們計劃生產MAX 216輛，其中70%將在下半年生產。

We expect to return to a production rate of 52 per month by the end of 2022.

我們預計到 2022 年底，產能將恢復到每月 52 件。

I can assure you that detailed plans are being executed aggressively to manage overhead costs during the stage of low production.

我可以向您保證，正在積極執行詳細的計劃，以管理低產量階段的間接成本。

Cost reduction captains have been appointed to lead a very meticulous process to reset our cost structure to better align with our current production volumes.

成本削減負責人已被任命領導一個非常細緻的流程，以重置我們的成本結構，以更好地適應我們當前的產量。

Recovery begins in the second quarter and will improve through the year from increasing MAX production rates and realization of our cost mitigation activities.

復甦從第二季開始，並將透過提高最大生產力和實現我們的成本削減活動而在全年得到改善。

We plan to exit the year with stable cash flow generation and sufficient cash to fund our operations.

我們計劃以穩定的現金流產生和充足的現金來為我們的營運提供資金，結束這一年。

This is a very challenging time for Spirit, and we have a lot of work to do.

對於 Spirit 來說，這是一個非常具有挑戰性的時期，我們有很多工作要做。

But as I said in my opening remarks, I am confident that we are prudently managing the situation in the right way, and I feel very optimistic about our future.

但正如我在開場白中所說，我相信我們正在以正確的方式審慎地處理局勢，我對我們的未來感到非常樂觀。

With that, I will turn it back over to Tom for some closing comments.

至此，我將把它轉回給湯姆，讓他發表一些結束語。

Thanks, Mark, and now I'll make some closing comments before we take questions.

謝謝，馬克，現在在我們回答問題之前我將做一些總結評論。

Our focus in 2020 is on improving quality, managing costs and ramping to a higher rate of production over the next several years.

我們 2020 年的重點是提高品質、管理成本並在未來幾年提高生產力。

And we will leverage the current lower rates of production to make sustained improvements to our assembly lines, especially the 737 assembly line.

我們將利用目前較低的生產力來持續改進我們的裝配線，特別是 737 裝配線。

At the same time, we will work to close and integrate the 3 transformative acquisitions that we announced last year: Bombardier's aerostructure business, Asco and FMI.

同時，我們將努力完成並整合去年宣布的三項變革性收購：龐巴迪的航空結構業務、Asco 和 FMI。

Executing on these 2 priorities, the cost reductions and quality and the operational goals, along with the inorganic growth, will help us become a leaner, more diversified company over the coming years.

執行這兩個優先事項，即降低成本、品質和營運目標，以及無機成長，將幫助我們在未來幾年成為更精簡、更多元化的公司。

As I began earlier, we remain confident in the long-term viability of the Boeing 737 MAX program and the outlook for aviation overall.

正如我早些時候開始的那樣，我們對波音 737 MAX 專案的長期可行性以及整個航空業的前景仍然充滿信心。

The MAX is critical to the future of U.S. and global commercial aviation and has a tremendous impact on the U.S. economy.

MAX 對美國和全球商業航空的未來至關重要，並對美國經濟產生巨大影響。

Spirit is the most critical aerostructure supplier for the MAX, supplying 70% of the structure, including the entire fuselage.

Spirit是MAX最關鍵的航空結構供應商，提供70%的結構，包括整個機身。

Spirit remains a proud partner on the MAX program, and we look forward to working with Boeing to ensure the long-term success of the program.

Spirit 仍然是 MAX 專案的令人自豪的合作夥伴，我們期待與波音公司合作，確保該專案的長期成功。

With that, we'll be happy to take your questions.

這樣，我們將很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from Carter Copeland of Melius Research.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Carter Copeland。

I wondered if you might give us a little bit more understanding on -- you mentioned the supply chain health.

我想知道您是否可以讓我們對您提到的供應鏈健康狀況有更多的了解。

I sort of wonder, obviously, this is a challenging situation from a liquidity standpoint for you guys, but I'd imagine the supply chain beneath you is a collection of microcosms that look very similar.

我有點想知道，顯然，從流動性的角度來看，這對你們來說是一個具有挑戰性的情況，但我想你們下面的供應鏈是一組看起來非常相似的微觀世界。

And so do you anticipate having to pay out anything to support suppliers?

那麼您預計需要支付任何費用來支援供應商嗎？

And what has your task force that you mentioned kind of revealed about risks when you try to ramp back up?

當你試圖恢復時，你提到的特別工作小組揭示了哪些風險？

Just any color you can give us on how that looks today, Tom, would be helpful.

湯姆，只要你能給我們任何顏色來說明它今天的樣子，都會有幫助的。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks, Carter.

謝謝，卡特。

Well, as you can imagine, the suppliers are critical partners to us across all parts of our business, but particularly to the 737 program.

正如您可以想像的那樣，供應商是我們業務各個方面的重要合作夥伴，尤其是 737 項目。

And our most important strategic goal, along with Boeing, is to ensure the long-term viability and health of the supply chain because after we get back into service and start producing, eventually, the rates are going to start going up.

我們與波音公司最重要的策略目標是確保供應鏈的長期生存和健康，因為在我們恢復服務並開始生產後，最終費率將開始上升。

And we want to make sure that everybody can meet those rate increases and do it efficiently and with high levels of quality.

我們希望確保每個人都能滿足這些升息的要求，並有效率、高品質地完成。

So it's in all of our interest to ensure that we have a healthy supply chain.

因此，確保擁有健康的供應鏈符合我們所有人的利益。

So to that end, what we've done with Boeing is we've formed a joint task force because a lot of the suppliers who supply us also supply Boeing directly.

為此，我們與波音合作成立了一個共同工作小組，因為許多向我們供貨的供應商也直接向波音公司供貨。

And so there's a lot of crossover.

所以有很多交叉。

So what we are doing is jointly reviewing all the suppliers and going through their situation, understanding their cash flow, their liquidity position, their debt situation, their operating performance and trying to understand what is a good solution for that particular supplier.

因此，我們正在做的是共同審查所有供應商並了解他們的情況，了解他們的現金流、流動性狀況、債務狀況、經營業績，並試圖了解對於特定供應商來說什麼是好的解決方案。

And there's a lot of different levers that we can look at in terms of their inventory levels, their payment terms, the rate at which they're producing.

我們可以從庫存水準、付款條件和生產速度考慮許多不同的槓桿。

We go through it and then we develop a customized solution for each of the suppliers.

我們會仔細檢查，然後為每個供應商開發客製化的解決方案。

Now as you can imagine, these discussions are ongoing.

現在，正如您可以想像的那樣，這些討論正在進行中。

They're very dynamic, very fluid because the situation is changing.

它們非常有活力、非常流動，因為情況正在改變。

And our goal is to work with each supplier to come up with a solution that works for them and works for the whole system with the goal that we all get through this together and that we emerge stronger and able to meet the production rate increases that we know are going to come in the future.

我們的目標是與每個供應商合作，提出一個適合他們和整個系統的解決方案，目標是我們共同渡過難關，讓我們變得更強大，能夠滿足我們的生產力成長。知道將來會發生。

And how many of the suppliers have you reviewed at this point?

目前您已經審核了多少家供應商？

We've reviewed a lot.

我們已經審查了很多。

And we're open to talk to all the suppliers.

我們願意與所有供應商交談。

I'm talking to suppliers every day.

我每天都在和供應商交談。

And we have these formal reviews with them.

我們與他們進行了正式的審查。

So we've got this mechanism set up and we're going to make sure that we use it in order to help all the suppliers get through this very challenging situation.

因此，我們建立了這個機制，我們將確保使用它來幫助所有供應商度過這個非常具有挑戰性的局面。

Our next question comes from Jon Raviv of Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的喬恩·拉維夫。

Tom, can you just put into context the recent debt moves, the downgrade, the new facility you've put in place.

湯姆，您能否介紹一下最近的債務變動、降級以及您設立的新設施的背景。

What does all this mean?

這是什麼意思呢？

And you're also saying you're going to raise debt on the sort of tail, short-term stuff.

你還說你將在尾部、短期的事情上籌集債務。

What does all that mean for capital allocation flexibility going forward?

這對於未來資本配置的彈性意味著什麼？

You can still do 2 deals, but when do you get to --?

您仍然可以進行 2 筆交易，但是您什麼時候可以--？

Are you able to look back at repo at some point?

您能在某個時候回顧一下回購協議嗎？

Can you reassess the dividend at some point?

您可以在某個時候重新評估股息嗎？

Are we sort of more tilted on frankly not, I think, being shareholder friendly in the -- even in the midterm, not just the near term, even going in '21, '22?

坦白說，我認為，我們是否更傾向於對股東友好——即使在中期，而不僅僅是近期，甚至在 21 年、22 年？

Right.

正確的。

Well, a couple things happened that impacted the whole liquidity situation.

嗯，發生了幾件事影響了整個流動性狀況。

The first thing was the suspension of the production system for January and what's also turned out into February had an impact on our earnings and in our cash flow in the first quarter.

首先是一月生產系統的暫停，二月的情況也對我們第一季的獲利和現金流產生了影響。

We have bank debt.

我們有銀行債務。

So we have an $800 million revolving facility and a $400 million term loan.

因此，我們有 8 億美元的循環貸款和 4 億美元的定期貸款。

And there were covenants on that bank debt which we would have been in danger of breaching through the normal course of operations in the first quarter.

而銀行債務有一些契約，我們在第一季的正常營運過程中可能有違反這些契約的危險。

So the first thing we did was we had to negotiate waivers to the covenants on those bank loans.

因此，我們做的第一件事就是必須就這些銀行貸款契約的豁免進行協商。

In addition, as you mentioned, we also did get downgraded by both Moody's and Standard & Poor's by 2 notches.

另外，正如你所提到的，穆迪和標準普爾也確實將我們的評級下調了2級。

And so that took us out of investment grade into high yield which put some additional pressure on the situation.

因此，這使我們從投資級別轉向高收益級別，這給情況帶來了一些額外的壓力。

So we did renegotiate those covenants and we negotiated waivers.

因此，我們確實重新談判了這些契約，並協商了豁免。

That did put some restrictions in terms of our capital allocation.

這確實對我們的資本配置造成了一些限制。

So until we return to investment grade, one of the restrictions is that we not make share repurchases.

因此，在我們恢復投資等級之前，限制之一是我們不能回購股票。

We do have the flexibility to increase dividends back up to the previous levels of about $0.12 a share.

我們確實可以靈活地將股息提高到先前每股約 0.12 美元的水平。

But our goal is, over the next couple of years, is really focus on executing on the MAX production system, getting back to (technical difficulty).

但我們的目標是，在接下來的幾年裡，真正專注於在 MAX 生產系統上執行，回到（技術難度）。

Pardon me, this is the conference operator.

對不起，這是會議接線生。

We seem to have lost connection with the speaker location.

我們似乎與說話者的位置失去了聯繫。

Please continue to hold while we get them reconnected.

請繼續等待，等待我們重新連線。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This is the conference operator.

這是會議操作員。

We have successfully reconnected the speaker location and they may proceed where they left off.

我們已成功重新連接揚聲器位置，他們可以從上次中斷的地方繼續。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

And apologies, everybody, for the technical issues.

對於技術問題，大家深感抱歉。

But Jon had asked me about capital allocation.

但喬恩問過我有關資本配置的問題。

Not sure how much of that got through, so let me just repeat.

不確定其中有多少內容通過了，所以讓我重複一遍。

When we learned of the production suspension at the end of 2019, that obviously impacted our first quarter financials, particularly our cash flow and our profitability because the MAX is half of our production.

當我們得知 2019 年底停產的消息時，這顯然影響了我們第一季的財務狀況，特別是我們的現金流和獲利能力，因為 MAX 占我們產量的一半。

And so that put us at risk of breaching our covenants on our bank loans, which consisted of our revolver and a $400 million term loan.

因此，這使我們面臨違反銀行貸款契約的風險，其中包括我們的左輪手槍和 4 億美元的定期貸款。

In addition, Standard & Poor's and Moody's downgraded us 2 notches.

此外，標準普爾和穆迪將我們的評級下調2級。

So we went to our banks and renegotiated our loan covenants, and we were successful in doing that.

因此，我們去了銀行並重新談判了貸款契約，我們成功地做到了這一點。

But as a result of doing that, particularly since we're no longer investment grade, our new covenants, at least for this period of time until the kind of early part of next year, have some restrictions on them related to capital allocation.

但這樣做的結果是，特別是因為我們不再是投資級別，我們的新契約，至少在明年初之前的這段時間內，對資本配置有一些限制。

Specifically, we are not permitted to do share repurchases until we regain investment grade.

具體來說，在我們恢復投資等級之前，我們不得進行股票回購。

We can increase the dividend.

我們可以增加股利。

But really, our focus for the immediate future is to focus on MAX execution to go up in rate, as Mark mentioned, by the second half of the year, really starting in Q3, we'll be cash flow positive again on a run rate basis.

但實際上，我們近期的重點是專注於 MAX 執行，以提高利率，正如馬克所提到的，到今年下半年，真正從第三季開始，我們的現金流將再次以運行率為正基礎。

And as production increases over time, we will continue to generate more cash.

隨著產量隨著時間的推移而增加，我們將繼續產生更多現金。

And our goal is to pay down debt over the next 1.5 years or so, get back to investment grade, and then we can resume the share repurchases and reset the dividend once we're in a much stronger cash position.

我們的目標是在未來 1.5 年左右的時間內償還債務，恢復到投資級別，然後一旦我們的現金狀況變得更加強勁，我們就可以恢復股票回購併重置股息。

Our next question comes from David Strauss of Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的大衛‧史特勞斯。

One clarifying question and then a follow-up.

先澄清問題，然後跟進。

So you had said that free cash flow in 2020 would be negative.

所以你說過2020年的自由現金流將為負值。

I guess the clarifying question is, does that include the Boeing advance or is that excluding the Boeing advance?

我想澄清的問題是，這包括波音預付款還是不包括波音預付款？

And then on 787, Tom, I know you've talked about step down pricing there.

然後在 787 上，湯姆，我知道你已經談到了那裡的降價。

Do you get any relief on 787 pricing given what we're headed to in terms of much lower rates?

考慮到我們將大幅降低費率，您對 787 的定價是否感到寬慰？

Okay.

好的。

Well, on the free cash flow question, let me turn it over to Mark and then I'll touch on the 787 question.

好吧，關於自由現金流問題，讓我把它交給馬克，然後我會談談 787 問題。

Yes, David.

是的，大衛。

Our projection for negative cash flow for the year does include the $225 million of advances that we got from Boeing, which represent a $155 million prepayment in price and roughly $70 million for inventory and rate stabilization.

我們對今年負現金流的預測確實包括從波音公司獲得的 2.25 億美元預付款，其中包括 1.55 億美元的預付款項以及約 7,000 萬美元的庫存和費率穩定費用。

Okay.

好的。

Regarding the 787 question in terms of pricing changes as the rate changes, the answer is no.

關於 787 所提出的定價隨費率變動而變動的問題，答案是否定的。

The prices that we agreed with Boeing are essentially fixed and they do not index to rate.

我們與波音公司達成的價格基本上是固定的，並且不與利率掛鉤。

That's different than the 737 program where we now have pricing out to 2033.

這與 737 計劃不同，我們現在的定價截止到 2033 年。

That is indexed to rate.

這是指數化的。

But on 787, it is not.

但在 787 上卻並非如此。

Our next question comes from Seth Seifman of JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的賽斯‧塞夫曼。

Just 2 kind of quick clarifications, I guess, to follow up on David's last question.

我想，只有兩種快速澄清是為了跟進大衛的最後一個問題。

So at a rate of 10 a month, presumably, I guess unit 1400 goes out I think you said early in 2023.

因此，以每月 10 台的速度，我猜 1400 台設備將在 2023 年初淘汰。

Beyond that, is there an opportunity to be cash profitable if hypothetically the rate is 10 a month?

除此之外，如果假設利率為每月 10 美元，是否有機會實現現金獲利？

The answer is yes.

答案是肯定的。

It represents -- each rate break from 14 to 12 and then from 12 to 10 represented a headwind of about $100,000, so $200,000.

它代表——每次利率從 14 跌至 12，然後從 12 跌至 10 代表約 100,000 美元的逆風，因此為 200,000 美元。

The new price is about $5.25 million after the 1405.

繼1405之後新售價約525萬美元。

And so we got to make up the extra $200,000, but we have more time now to do it.

所以我們必須補足額外的 20 萬美元，但現在我們有更多的時間來做這件事。

The other positive aspect of this rate decline is the 787 is in a forward loss position and it's cash flow negative.

此次利率下降的另一個正面是 787 處於遠期虧損狀態，現金流為負。

And because we're delivering fewer units, we consume less cash in the time period up until 1405.

由於我們交付的單位數量較少，因此我們在 1405 年之前的時間內消耗的現金也較少。

But we fully expect still to be cash flow positive once we get the line unit 1405, which is now going to be in early 2023 on the 787 program.

但我們完全預計，一旦我們獲得 1405 號機組，現金流仍將為正值，該機組將於 2023 年初安裝在 787 項目上。

Great.

偉大的。

Great.

偉大的。

And then just really quick follow-up.

然後就是非常快速的跟進。

To be clear, the $375 million short-term loan, that's still undrawn?

需要明確的是，3.75 億美元的短期貸款尚未提取？

Yes, it is.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

And we don't expect to draw on it.

我們並不期望利用它。

It was really a vehicle to help us get through the covenant renegotiations.

它確實是幫助我們完成聖約重新談判的工具。

And as we said, it expires later this year, either by the third quarter or by the recertification of the MAX 60 days after that, whichever comes first.

正如我們所說，它將於今年稍後到期，要么在第三季度到期，要么在 60 天後對 MAX 進行重新認證，以先到者為準。

Our next question comes from Cai von Rumohr of Cowen and Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen and Company 的 Cai von Rumohr。

Yes.

是的。

First, your comment about negative cash flow for the year.

首先，您對今年負現金流的評論。

You mentioned you expect to be cash positive in the third and fourth quarters, which basically implies like a pretty big deficit in the first and I guess, less in the second.

您提到您預計第三季和第四季的現金為正，這基本上意味著第一季的赤字相當大，我想第二季的赤字會更少。

Can you, A, walk us through kind of some of the drivers?

A，您能為我們介紹一些驅動因素嗎？

Is that mainly going to be unallocated cost of goods sold?

這主要是未分配的銷售成本嗎？

Is that going to be severance because you already laid off 21% of Wichita?

這是遣散費嗎，因為您已經解雇了威奇托 21% 的員工？

And yes, if you could answer those questions, that would be great.

是的，如果你能回答這些問題，那就太好了。

Sure, Cai.

當然，蔡。

It's Mark.

是馬克。

Let me walk you through that.

讓我帶您了解一下。

Obviously, the very low rate of production or essentially limited production in the first quarter is going to have a negative impact as it relates to our ability to -- we're not going to generate revenue, and therefore, that's going to have a negative impact on any cash coming in the door.

顯然，第一季的生產力非常低或基本上有限的產量將會產生負面影響，因為這關係到我們的能力——我們不會產生收入，因此，這將會產生負面影響對任何現金流入的影響。

But you have to remember, at the end of '19, we were producing at a rate of 52 airplanes per month.

但你必須記住，在 19 年底，我們的生產速度是每月 52 架。

We had a $1 billion accounts payable cash balance on our books.

我們的帳面上有 10 億美元的應付帳款現金餘額。

A big cash drag is related to working capital.

現金的巨大拖累與營運資金有關。

So therefore, we're going to have to liquidate the payables, most of our payment terms are between 60 and 90 days with those suppliers.

因此，我們將不得不清算應付帳款，我們與這些供應商的大多數付款期限在 60 至 90 天之間。

So therefore, accounts payable will be a big consumer of drawing down cash here in the first quarter.

因此，應付帳款將成為第一季現金的主要消耗者。

We'll start to slowly start to ramp back up in the second quarter which will allow us to book some revenue and start to generate some cash.

我們將在第二季開始慢慢恢復成長，這將使我們能夠預訂一些收入並開始產生一些現金。

But obviously, the biggest drag is going to be specifically around working capital in the first half of the year.

但顯然，最大的拖累將特別是今年上半年的營運資金。

Obviously, lower production volumes on 37, going from 600 units down to 200, will also have a negative impact on revenue and cash.

顯然，37 的產量下降，從 600 輛減少到 200 輛，也會對收入和現金產生負面影響。

So it's a combination of those 2 items, the burn down of the payables and the slow revenue rate ramp back up.

因此，這是這兩個因素的結合，即應付帳款的消耗和收入率緩慢回升。

And really, at the end of the day, as we move into the back half of the year, we will not have the type of excess costs, abnormal costs and fixed costs that we have in the first half, which, again, also will drive some consumption of cash.

事實上，歸根究底，當我們進入下半年時，我們將不會出現上半年那樣的超額成本、異常成本和固定成本，而這些成本也將再次出現。帶動部分現金消費。

Yes.

是的。

So all the cash mitigation actions or the cost mitigation actions that we're taking, they are taking place now, including the layoffs and some of the reductions in our indirect cost.

因此，我們正在採取的所有現金緩解措施或成本緩解措施現在都在進行，包括裁員和部分間接成本的削減。

The benefits start to accrue in the back half of the year, which helps our cash position.

效益在下半年開始顯現，這有助於我們的現金狀況。

So you mentioned layoffs, but you already announced layoffs.

所以你提到裁員，但你已經宣布裁員了。

So is this the cash impact of the layoffs really is hitting in the first quarter as opposed to in the fourth?

那麼，裁員對現金的影響真的是在第一季而不是第四季產生的嗎？

Cai, that's right.

蔡，沒錯。

And part of the regulatory process, we had to provide a WARN Act.

作為監管流程的一部分，我們必須提供警告法案。

And upon that WARN, we were required to pay our employees that were impacted by the reduction 60 days worth of pay.

收到該警告後，我們需要向受到 60 天工資減少影響的員工支付工資。

And so essentially, those employees that were impacted by the workforce reduction, we're essentially paying their wages through the end of the first quarter and into April.

因此，基本上，那些受到裁員影響的員工，我們基本上會在第一季末到四月支付他們的薪水。

And so therefore, that's going to cause some negative drag on cash flow in the first quarter as well.

因此，這也會對第一季的現金流造成一些負面拖累。

Our next question comes from Sheila Kahyaoglu of Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

Welcome, Mark.

歡迎，馬克。

Can we maybe talk about profitability expectations on the MAX for fuselage segment margins once you reach a normalized MAX production rate whether it's in 2022?

一旦達到標準化的 MAX 生產力（無論是在 2022 年），我們是否可以討論一下 MAX 機身部分利潤率的獲利預期？

And Mark, you alluded to some charges that you said would be in the corporate line.

馬克，你提到了一些你所說的屬於公司範圍的指控。

How do we think about that Q4 run rate of 8.6% margins for fuselage given you were still producing at a rate of 52 a month in Q4?

鑑於您在第四季度仍以每月 52 架的速度生產，我們如何看待第四季度機身利潤率為 8.6% 的運行率？

Well, there were several impacts.

嗯，有幾個影響。

As Tom indicated, early in the fourth quarter, we were running pretty hard from a factory standpoint to catch up on some deliveries.

正如湯姆指出的那樣，在第四季度初，從工廠的角度來看，我們非常努力地趕上一些交貨。

We had some extra head count, some contractors and some overtime which had a negative impact on the profitability in the quarter.

我們有一些額外的人員、一些承包商和一些加班，這對本季的獲利能力產生了負面影響。

But also due to the slowdown, we actually shut down production the last couple of weeks of December after we were notified by Boeing that they were ceasing production in January.

但也由於經濟放緩，在接到波音公司將於 1 月停產的通知後，我們實際上在 12 月的最後幾週關閉了生產。

That also had a big time impact to us.

這對我們也產生了很大的影響。

And then as a result of that slowdown, we had accounting contracts that go over periods.

由於經濟放緩，我們的會計合約會過期。

And so we had to split our accounting contracts.

所以我們只好分割我們的會計合約。

We have less units in the accounting contracts, which also had a negative impact on what I would consider to be a normalized margin in the fourth quarter.

我們的會計合約單位較少，這也對我認為的第四季正常化利潤率產生了負面影響。

So the bottom line is, Q4 as it relates to the slowdown and some of our initial efforts on quality and overtime in the early part of the quarter really had a negative impact on the fourth quarter profitability for the fuselage segment.

因此，底線是，第四季度，因為它與經濟放緩有關，而且我們在本季度初期在品質和加班方面所做的一些初步努力確實對機身部門第四季度的盈利能力產生了負面影響。

I would tell you, as we get into '22 and 2023 and get back to 47, 52, we will go back up and have the types of margins that you guys have seen in the 2017 and 2018 time frame.

我想告訴你，當我們進入 22 年和 2023 年並回到 47 年、52 年時，我們將回升並擁有你們在 2017 年和 2018 年時間範圍內看到的利潤類型。

And really, as unfortunate as this situation is, there's a little silver lining here.

事實上，儘管這種情況很不幸，但這裡還是有一線希望的。

We're really doing a lot of things from a factory standpoint that will allow us to go back up in rate much more efficiently, much more cost effectively and allow us to really have a good chance to reach those target margins that we have.

從工廠的角度來看，我們確實做了很多事情，這將使我們能夠更有效、更具成本效益地提高生產力，並讓我們真正有很好的機會達到我們的目標利潤。

And Tom has indicated in the past of getting a gross margin of 16.5%.

Tom 過去曾表示毛利率為 16.5%。

And if you'll let me just add to that.

如果您願意的話我補充一下。

I think Mark summarized it pretty well.

我認為馬克總結得很好。

But the fuselage margins were really impacted a lot by fixed overhead right now which we're not absorbing.

但機身利潤率現在確實受到固定開銷的很大影響，我們沒有吸收這一點。

Once we get back to rate and we start absorbing that, we expect that with all the cost reduction actions that we took in the fuselage in terms of process improvements and supply chain is the fuselage margins will get back to the historic levels of 15% to 16%.

一旦我們回到利率並開始吸收這一點，我們預計，隨著我們在製程改進和供應鏈方面對機身採取的所有成本降低措施，機身利潤率將恢復到 15% 的歷史水準16%。

But one of the things we've been talking about the last few quarters and I think you really see it this quarter is, how propulsion now is really growing in terms of margin.

但我們過去幾季一直在談論的一件事是，現在的推進力在利潤率方面確實在增長，我想你在本季度確實看到了這一點。

So the margin this quarter for propulsion was 20% versus 16% last year.

因此，本季的推進利潤率為 20%，而去年為 16%。

So we're really starting to see propulsion go up.

所以我們真的開始看到推進力的提升。

That's going to continue.

這種情況將會持續下去。

We're going to see relatively stronger margins in propulsion, but the fuselage margins will bounce back to their historic levels of the 15% to 16% range.

我們將看到推進力利潤率相對較高，但機身利潤率將反彈至 15% 至 16% 的歷史水準。

And as Mark said, the overall margin, our goal is, once we get up into the 42, 47 range again, is for that to be at about 16.5%.

正如馬克所說，我們的目標是，一旦我們再次進入 42、47 範圍，整體利潤率將達到 16.5% 左右。

Our next question comes from Myles Walton of UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的邁爾斯·沃爾頓。

A couple of clarifications.

一些澄清。

One, I think, Tom, you mentioned 30% of the deliveries would take place in the first half and obviously implies starting production deliveries next month, I would guess.

一，我想，湯姆，你提到 30% 的交付將在上半年進行，我猜這顯然意味著下個月開始生產交付。

What's the contingent milestones to restart that production?

重啟生產的或有里程碑是什麼？

Is there anything externally related to the certification that's actually required for you to start delivering and for Boeing to start accepting those fuselages?

是否有任何與您開始交付和波音開始接受這些機身實際所需的認證相關的外部資訊？

The answer is no.

答案是不行。

I think Boeing has decoupled the production from the recertification.

我認為波音公司已經將生產與重新認證脫鉤了。

They've said that the recertification, they could expect it in midyear, but that they were going to essentially start the production system so that they could maintain the viability of the supply chain earlier than that.

他們表示，重新認證預計將在年中進行，但他們基本上將啟動生產系統，以便能夠在此之前保持供應鏈的可行性。

So it's decoupled.

所以它是解耦的。

Now there's all sorts of assumptions that will be built into this.

現在將有各種各樣的假設被納入其中。

But right now, the plans are to restart production even in advance of the recertification per the plans that Boeing has already announced.

但目前，根據波音公司已經宣布的計劃，計劃甚至在重新認證之前就重新開始生產。

Okay.

好的。

And then the other one of the clarification on Bombardier, I think you mentioned closing in 2020.

關於龐巴迪的另一項澄清，我想你提到了 2020 年關閉。

Previously, you talked about the first half of 2020.

此前您談到了2020年上半年的情況。

Is it now looking like it's moving to the second half or is it still on track for the first half?

現在看起來是要進入下半場還是仍處於上半場的軌道上？

No.

不。

I think we're still on track for the first half.

我認為上半場我們仍處於正軌。

We've made all the regulatory filings and working through the detailed closing.

我們已經提交了所有監管文件並完成了詳細的交割工作。

It's all on track.

一切都步入正軌。

And I said 2020, but we still think first half is achievable.

我說的是2020年，但我們仍然認為上半年是可以實現的。

Our next question comes from Robert Spingarn of Crédit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸銀行的羅伯特·斯賓加恩。

Tom, I wanted to go a little high level here and move past, if we could, the disruption this year and next year, go back to your normalized free cash conversion around 7% to 9% of sales.

湯姆，我想在這裡說得更高一點，如果可以的話，超越今年和明年的混亂，回到銷售額的 7% 到 9% 左右的標準化自由現金轉換。

And I think you said you're going to bounce back on margins.

我想你說過你會在利潤率上反彈。

So the question is, can you bounce back to that on cash flow long term taking into account the new businesses you've bought?

所以問題是，考慮到您購買的新業務，您的現金流量能否長期反彈？

And how does that answer change if mature rate on MAX only gets to 52 and if 87 stays at 10?

如果 MAX 的成熟利率只達到 52 而 87 維持在 10，那麼這個答案會如何改變？

Right.

正確的。

The answer is absolutely we're committed to getting back to that level of cash flow generation.

答案是我們絕對致力於恢復到現金流產生的水平。

I think once the MAX gets back into the 42 range, that's a more normalized level of production for us.

我認為一旦 MAX 回到 42 系列，這對我們來說就是一個更標準化的生產水準。

And with all the actions that we've taken in terms of cost and manufacturing process, cash flow generation should be pretty good.

透過我們在成本和製造流程方面採取的所有行動，現金流的產生應該相當不錯。

The acquisitions all contribute positively and accretively to cash flow.

這些收購都對現金流做出了積極且增值的貢獻。

So 7% to 9% is certainly our goal.

所以7%到9%當然是我們的目標。

Now we're going to have a little bit of headwind with 787 at 10.

現在，我們將在 10 點遇到 787 的逆風。

But Boeing has indicated that they expect that to go back up to 12 once orders recover in Asia, in particular.

但波音公司表示，一旦訂單恢復，尤其是亞洲訂單恢復，他們預計這一數字將回升至 12。

But even at 10, our goal is going to be 7% to 9% once the MAX gets back up into the 42 range of production rate.

但即使是 10，一旦 MAX 回到 42 的生產力範圍，我們的目標將是 7% 到 9%。

Our next question comes from Doug Harned of Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的道格·哈內德。

This is Caius Slater standing in for Doug.

這是凱厄斯·斯萊特代替道格。

So I just want to go back to the Propulsion Systems margins.

所以我只想回到推進系統的利潤。

So Tom, you said you thought the margins were going to stay strong there.

湯姆，你說你認為那裡的利潤率會保持強勁。

A part of that has been the shift towards the MAX.

其中一部分就是向 MAX 的轉變。

And now that shift's taken place and you got a couple of years of lower MAX production, what are the other parts that you're seeing there and why are you confident in the margin outlook there?

現在這種轉變已經發生，而且您的 MAX 產量連續幾年下降，您在那裡看到的其他部分是什麼？為什麼您對那裡的利潤前景充滿信心？

Well, the reason we're confident in the margin outlook there is, we had the most change in the configuration of those parts.

嗯，我們對利潤率前景充滿信心的原因是，我們對這些零件的配置進行了最大的改變。

So it's the pylon and the thrust reverser.

這是掛架和反推力裝置。

So if you look at the MAX, we always say it's about 35% different than the NG, but most of the change was in the pylon and the thrust reverser.

因此，如果你看一下 MAX，我們總是說它與 NG 大約有 35% 的差異，但大部分變化是在掛架和反推力裝置上。

So that meant we went out to the market and essentially sourced all new products with suppliers and were able to negotiate good rates.

因此，這意味著我們走向市場，基本上從供應商採購所有新產品，並能夠協商優惠的價格。

So a lot of the benefit came from sourcing those new products for the pylon and for the thrust reverser.

因此，為塔架和推力反向器採購這些新產品帶來了許多好處。

That certainly continues.

這肯定會繼續下去。

The other thing is, another program that we have a pylon on is the A220.

另一件事是，我們有一個掛架的另一個項目是 A220。

And the A220 was at a fairly low rate when it was the CSeries under Bombardier.

而A220在龐巴迪旗下的C系列時期，其使用率相當低。

Now that Airbus has taken over the program, we've seen the rates really start to ramp up very significantly and will continue to do so.

現在空中巴士已經接管了該計劃，我們已經看到費率確實開始大幅上升，並將繼續如此。

That program is a good program for us.

該計劃對我們來說是一個很好的計劃。

And that is also going to contribute to our propulsion margins over time, particularly as the rates increase now that it's the A220.

隨著時間的推移，這也將有助於提高我們的推進裕度，特別是隨著 A220 的價格上漲。

Our next question comes from Hunter Keay of Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究中心的亨特‧基伊。

This is actually Mike Maugeri on for Hunter.

這其實是亨特的麥克·毛傑裡。

Can you talk a little bit about what you're seeing in Airbus in regard to the A321, the ACF delays?

您能談談您在空中巴士公司看到的有關 A321 和 ACF 延誤的情況嗎？

Are you seeing lower shipset pulls from Airbus in the supply chain?

您是否發現空中巴士在供應鏈中的船舶組拉動量較低？

Any color would be helpful.

任何顏色都會有幫助。

I would say, we've seen a little bit of a mix shift.

我想說，我們已經看到了一些混合轉變。

So some of the A321s we had in our skyline has shifted to A320s, but the rates are, I would say, largely the same.

因此，我們天際線中的一些 A321 已轉為 A320，但我想說，價格基本上相同。

We've just seen a little bit of a mix shift.

我們剛剛看到了一些混合轉變。

And we continue to do rate studies for Airbus in terms of looking at higher rates in the future.

我們繼續對空中巴士進行費率研究，以期未來提高費率。

And so as we see it, as they resolve some of the production issues they have in Hamburg with the A321 and open up the new production line in Toulouse, that will normalize over time.

因此，正如我們所見，隨著他們解決了漢堡 A321 的一些生產問題並在圖盧茲開設了新生產線，隨著時間的推移，這種情況將會正常化。

But at this point, all we've seen is some mix shifting between the A321 and the A320.

但目前，我們所看到的只是 A321 和 A320 之間的一些混合轉換。

Our next question comes from Peter Arment of Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自貝爾德 (Baird) 的彼得·阿門特 (Peter Arment)。

Tom, you didn't mention -- can we maybe just get a better understanding on the production side how you're treating the fuselages that are in storage, how you're going to be feathering those into the production system?

湯姆，你沒有提到——我們能否在生產方面更好地了解你們如何處理儲存中的機身，以及你們將如何將這些機身納入生產系統？

Right.

正確的。

So we've got about 120 in storage right now.

現在我們的儲存量約為 120 個。

And they're all wrapped and stored on the ramp that is adjacent to McConnell Air Force Base.

它們都被包裹起來並存放在麥康奈爾空軍基地附近的坡道上。

And so the goal is over the next couple of years, as we ramp back up to 57, is that by the time we get to 57, that inventory should be essentially burned off to the sustainable level that we want.

因此，我們的目標是在未來幾年內，當我們恢復到 57 個時，當我們達到 57 個時，庫存應該基本上被消耗到我們想要的可持續水平。

And one of the things that we've learned through this whole process is having a buffer between Wichita and Renton is a very good thing.

我們透過整個過程學到的一件事是，在威奇托和倫頓之間建立一個緩衝區是一件非常好的事情。

It enables us to catch things, to ensure that there are no issues with train delays or anything like that.

它使我們能夠趕上事情，以確保不存在火車延誤或類似問題。

So we'll probably always keep 20 or 25 in a buffer so that we can cushion the production system.

因此，我們可能會始終在緩衝區中保留 20 或 25 個，以便為生產系統提供緩衝。

And the goal is that by the time we get to 57 sometime out in the future is we will be at that level.

我們的目標是，當我們在未來某個時候達到 57 分時，我們將達到這個水平。

So we will essentially lag Boeing's production rate.

因此，我們基本上將落後於波音的生產率。

They'll go up higher than us and we'll burn that off.

他們會比我們升得更高，我們會把它燒掉。

But we expect that this year, the buffer will still grow from the 120, but then it will burn down over the next couple of years as Boeing goes up in production and goes above us until we both get to 57.

但我們預計今年的緩衝量仍將從 120 架開始成長，但隨著波音公司產量的增加並超過我們，緩衝量將在未來幾年內消耗殆盡，直到我們都達到 57 架。

Our next question comes from Michael Ciarmoli of SunTrust.

我們的下一個問題來自 SunTrust 的 Michael Ciarmoli。

Tom, just back to the free cash flow, I guess.

湯姆，我想，回到自由現金流。

To exit the year at free cash flow positive, what sort of rate should we expect to see?

為了以正的自由現金流結束這一年，我們應該期望看到什麼樣的利率？

And I guess how ironclad is the contract with Boeing to produce at 216 if we continue to see maybe certification slide?

我想如果我們繼續看到認證幻燈片的話，與波音公司在 216 生產的合約有多鐵定？

Right.

正確的。

Well, the 216 is the agreement that we have with Boeing.

嗯，216 是我們與波音公司達成的協議。

It depends on a lot of assumptions.

這取決於很多假設。

And if things change, they obviously could change that.

如果事情發生變化，他們顯然可以改變這一點。

So that is not locked in stone, but I think given the assumptions they made for a midyear certification of the MAX, we expect to do that.

所以這並不是一成不變的，但我認為考慮到他們對 MAX 年中認證所做的假設，我們預計會做到這一點。

Now as we said, it's going to be a little bit fluid.

現在正如我們所說，它會變得有點流動。

As Mark said, about 70% of that production will be in the back half of the year.

正如馬克所說，大約 70% 的產量將在今年下半年完成。

So we're going to start off relatively slowly in March, April and May, to let the production system kind of catch up and catch its breath.

因此，我們將在三月、四月和五月相對緩慢地開始，讓生產系統趕上並喘口氣。

And then we have to flush through a lot of work-in-process over the next couple of months as well.

然後我們還必須在接下來的幾個月內完成大量正在進行的工作。

So again, if you look at over 10 months, the average -- because we start in March, 10 months, it's about 21 a month, start very low and then gradually increase over the course of the year.

所以，如果你看一下 10 個月以上的平均值，因為我們從 3 月開始，10 個月，大約每月 21 次，開始時非常低，然後在一年中逐漸增加。

So not quite sure where we'll end up the year, but 28 to 30, in that range, is probably a good estimate.

因此，不太確定今年的結果，但在這個範圍內，28 到 30 可能是一個不錯的估計。

Got it.

知道了。

And then just a follow-up, the 777X.

然後是後續機型 777X。

Is that going to be additive to cash flow as you guys get through or exit the year or how are you thinking about that program?

當你們度過或退出這一年時，這會增加現金流嗎？或者你如何看待該計劃？

Well, as you know, the 777X schedule is pushing out.

嗯，如您所知，777X 的時間表即將推出。

And so we expect to see a little bit of headwind this year in terms of number of units that are in the skyline.

因此，我們預計今年天際線的單位數量會遇到一些阻力。

And those units are going to shift more towards the 300ER and the freighter and away from the X. So that's probably a little bit of headwind this year compared to last year.

這些單位將更多地轉向 300ER 和貨機，而不是 X。因此，與去年相比，今年可能有點逆風。

But again, once that program is out, and I mean it had its first flight, it was terrific.

但同樣，一旦該計劃推出，我的意思是它進行了首次飛行，那真是太棒了。

I saw the aircraft just before it took its flight.

我在飛機起飛前看到了它。

And with those folding wings, it's a spectacular aircraft.

憑藉那些可折疊的機翼，這是一架壯觀的飛機。

It's got a great outlook for it.

它有一個很好的前景。

And once the orders start building and they get back up to the rate, 5 aircraft per month and potentially even above that that will be a very strong program for us.

一旦訂單開始增加並恢復到每月 5 架飛機的速度，甚至可能超過這個數字，對我們來說將是一個非常強大的計劃。

But this year, it's a little bit of headwind because of the delay.

但今年，由於延誤，情況有點不利。

Our last question is a follow-up from David Strauss of Barclays.

我們的最後一個問題是巴克萊銀行的大衛·施特勞斯的後續問題。

So Mark, it was helpful your description of how the accounting will work on the MAX.

馬克，您對 MAX 上的會計工作方式的描述很有幫助。

At what rate -- you're saying you're going to have period costs when we're below normal in terms of production.

以什麼速度——你是說當我們的產量低於正常水平時，你將會產生期間成本。

At what rate would you not expect to be taking these costs as period costs and they would flow through the block in a normal way?

在什麼情況下，您不希望將這些成本視為期間成本，並且它們會以正常方式流過該區塊？

I would say, once you get to a rate of about 32, we get back to what we would consider to be normal type production in the factory and therefore wouldn't be required to be recording these as abnormal or idle production costs.

我想說，一旦達到大約 32 的比率，我們就會回到我們認為工廠正常類型的生產，因此不需要將這些記錄為異常或閒置的生產成本。

So for the most part, you're going to see the abnormal costs end up being period costs primarily here in 2020.

因此，在大多數情況下，您將看到異常成本最終主要是 2020 年的期間成本。

There might be a little bit of bleed into 2021, but it'll be mainly contained in 2020.

到 2021 年可能會有一些流失，但主要會在 2020 年得到遏制。

Okay.

好的。

And one other follow-up, Tom.

還有另一位跟進者，湯姆。

As you think about going back up in rate, can you talk about potentially the need to hire back labor and your ability to potentially call back or bring back experienced labor rather than green labor?

當您考慮重新提高利率時，您能否談談重新僱用勞動力的潛在需求以及您可能召回或帶回經驗豐富的勞動力而不是綠色勞動力的能力？

Right.

正確的。

Well, our preference would be to bring back the people that we laid off.

好吧，我們的首選是讓我們解僱的人回來。

This was a difficult decision to have to make.

這是一個必須做出的艱難決定。

These are our colleagues that we work with every day.

這些是我們每天一起工作的同事。

And there were 2,800 people in Wichita and about 400 people in Oklahoma.

威奇託有 2,800 人，俄克拉荷馬州約有 400 人。

So the first goal would be to get those individuals back.

因此，首要目標是讓這些人回來。

Now of course, given that this production slowdown period could last up to 1 year, 1.5 years before we're going to need all of those people, they're going to look for new work.

當然，考慮到生產放緩期可能會持續長達 1 年、1.5 年，我們將需要所有這些人，他們將尋找新的工作。

And we've actually been organizing job fairs in both Wichita and in Oklahoma with a goal to get as many people as possible jobs in the local area because that's where they would prefer to live.

實際上，我們一直在威奇托和俄克拉荷馬州組織招聘會，目標是讓盡可能多的人在當地找到工作，因為那是他們更喜歡居住的地方。

Now we've also been talking to other companies, suppliers, customers who are out-of-state, not in Kansas or Oklahoma.

現在，我們也一直在與州外、堪薩斯州或俄克拉荷馬州以外的其他公司、供應商和客戶進行交談。

They've been coming in as well.

他們也已經進來了。

And so some people may leave the state.

因此有些人可能會離開該州。

But the people who live here in Wichita really like living in Wichita.

但住在威奇託的人們真的很喜歡住在威奇托。

And so when we have jobs, we're confident we can get a lot of them back.

因此，當我們找到工作時，我們有信心重新獲得很多工作。

But even if we can't, this area has always been a very fertile ground for experienced aircraft mechanics and engineers.

但即使我們不能，這個領域也一直是經驗豐富的飛機機械師和工程師的沃土。

And so we're confident that we'll be able to tap the area and get the people we need as we go back up in rate.

因此，我們有信心，隨著我們的速度回升，我們將能夠開發該地區並獲得我們需要的人員。

But our first obligation and commitment and desire is to bring back all of the 2,800 people in Wichita and the 400 people in Oklahoma that were part of the layoffs earlier this year.

但我們的首要義務、承諾和願望是讓今年早些時候裁員的威奇托市 2,800 名員工和俄克拉荷馬州 400 名員工全部回歸。

This concludes our question-and-answer session.

我們的問答環節到此結束。

The conference has now also concluded.

會議現在也結束了。

Thank you for attending today's presentation.

感謝您參加今天的演講。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。