殼牌 (SHEL) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Shell's First Quarter 2024 Financial Results Announcement. Shell's CFO, Sinead Gorman, will present the results, then host a Q&A session alongside Shell's CEO, Wael Sawan. (Operator Instructions) We will now begin the presentation.

歡迎閱讀殼牌 2024 年第一季財務業績公告。殼牌財務長 Sinead Gorman 將介紹結果，然後與殼牌執行長 Wael Sawan 一起主持問答環節。 （操作員指示）我們現在開始示範。

Welcome to Shell's 2024 First Quarter Results. It's been nearly a year since Capital Markets Day when we showed you our plans to deliver more value.

歡迎閱讀殼牌 2024 年第一季業績。距離我們向您展示我們提供更多價值的計劃的資本市場日已經過去了近一年。

And in March, our energy transition update shows how we will do that with less emissions, demonstrating our commitment to being a net 0 emissions energy business by 2050, whilst delivering enhanced shareholder returns.

3 月份，我們的能源轉型更新展示了我們將如何以更少的排放實現這一目標，展示了我們在 2050 年成為淨零排放能源企業的承諾，同時提高股東回報。

As we continue to turn our plans into action, I'm pleased that 2024 is off to a good start. We delivered yet another set of strong operational and financial results in the first quarter. In Upstream, our conventional oil and gas business performed very well with many of our core assets delivering high controllable availability.

隨著我們繼續將計劃轉化為行動，我很高興 2024 年有了一個好的開始。我們在第一季交付了另一組強勁的營運和財務表現。在上游，我們的傳統油氣業務表現良好，許多核心資產具有較高的可控可用性。

We also started production at oil Rydberg field, which is connected to our Appomattox production hub, reinforcing our leading deepwater position in the Gulf of Mexico, where our oil production has some of the lowest greenhouse gas intensity in the world. This is another project that supports the energy security the world needs and underpins the longevity of our cash flows.

我們也開始在里德伯格油田生產，該油田與我們的阿波馬托克斯生產中心相連，鞏固了我們在墨西哥灣的領先深水地位，我們的石油生產是世界上溫室氣體強度最低的地區之一。這是另一個支持世界所需的能源安全並支撐我們現金流的長壽的項目。

At Shell Polymers Monaca, our petrochemicals plant near Pittsburgh, we have successfully ramped up to full operation in Q1 and are on a pathway to longer-term stability. In our Renewables and Energy Solutions business, we have strategically diluted part of our stake in the Texan Brazos Wind Farm, whilst keeping access to 100% of the offtake as part of our integrated power strategy.

在我們位於匹茲堡附近的殼牌聚合物莫納卡石化工廠，我們已在第一季度成功全面投入運營，並正在走向長期穩定。在我們的再生能源和能源解決方案業務中，我們策略性地稀釋了我們在德州布拉索斯風電場的部分股權，同時保持100% 的承購權，作為我們綜合電力策略的一部分。

This allows us to build on our strengths and leverage our world-class trading and optimization capabilities. We continue to focus on maximizing the value of every electron molecule to help us deliver on all our targets.

這使我們能夠發揮我們的優勢並利用我們世界一流的交易和優化能力。我們繼續專注於最大化每個電子分子的價值，以幫助我們實現所有目標。

Moving on to our financial results. We continued to deliver strong results in the first quarter of 2024 despite above average well write-off, our adjusted earnings was $7.7 billion. And we generated $13.3 billion of cash flow from operations, driven by our consistent focus on performance.

接下來是我們的財務表現。儘管沖銷額高於平均水平，我們在 2024 年第一季繼續取得強勁業績，調整後收益為 77 億美元。在我們對業績的一貫關注的推動下，我們從營運中產生了 133 億美元的現金流。

In the first quarter, we had high liquefaction volumes, coupled with strong seasonal trading and optimization in our Integrated Gas business, even though market conditions were less favorable than in Q4.

在第一季度，儘管市場狀況不如第四季度有利，但我們的液化量很高，加上季節性交易強勁以及綜合天然氣業務的優化。

In Chemicals, we saw marked improvement in performance compared with previous quarters, and we still have potential for further growth. And it was a strong quarter for our Products business, particularly in trading and optimization, where we were able to capture high margins due to global product supply disruptions.

在化學品方面，與前幾季相比，我們的業績明顯改善，並且仍有進一步成長的潛力。對於我們的產品業務來說，這是一個強勁的季度，特別是在交易和優化方面，由於全球產品供應中斷，我們能夠獲得高利潤。

Moving on to our financial framework. We continue to be disciplined about our capital spend and our balance sheet is strong. Regarding shareholder distributions, today, we have announced another $3.5 billion share buyback program, which we expect to complete by the time of our Q2 results announcement in early August. That brings our expected shareholder distributions for the first half of the year to well over $10 billion.

繼續我們的財務框架。我們持續嚴格控制資本支出，資產負債表穩健。關於股東分配，今天，我們宣布了另一項 35 億美元的股票回購計劃，預計在 8 月初公佈第二季業績時完成。這使得我們預計今年上半年的股東分配將遠遠超過 100 億美元。

This demonstrates how we generate attractive shareholder returns in line with our guidance of 30% to 40% of our CFFO for shareholder distribution through the cycle. So, to summarize, Q1 was a good start to the year, a quarter of strong operational and financial performance. And for the rest of 2024, we will keep driving performance, focus on our strengths and continue to deliver more value with less emissions.

這展示了我們如何根據我們將 CFFO 的 30% 至 40% 用於整個週期股東分配的指導方針，產生有吸引力的股東回報。因此，總而言之，第一季是今年的良好開端，該季度營運和財務業績強勁。在 2024 年剩餘的時間裡，我們將繼續提高業績，專注於我們的優勢，並繼續以更少的排放創造更多價值。

Lastly, it's an important upcoming event for your calendar. Our Annual General Meeting 2024, is on May 21. We ask our shareholders to support our energy transition updates in which we outline how we continue to make good progress in reducing emissions from our operations whilst investing in areas where we have strength. These investments are helping our customers to decarbonize.

最後，這是您日曆上即將發生的重要事件。我們的 2024 年年度股東大會將於 5 月 21 日舉行。這些投資正在幫助我們的客戶脫碳。

And with this in mind, we have set a new ambition to reduce customer emissions from the oil products we sell by 15% to 20% by 2030. Therefore, we ask our shareholders to vote against the alternative resolution. By doing so, our shareholders will be endorsing this management team, our Board and Shell aim of being the investment case through the energy transition. Thank you.

考慮到這一點，我們制定了新的目標，即到 2030 年將我們銷售的石油產品的客戶排放量減少 15% 至 20%。透過這樣做，我們的股東將認可這個管理團隊、我們的董事會和殼牌的目標，即成為能源轉型投資案例。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Thank you for joining us today. We hope that after watching this presentation, you've seen how we delivered strong results and how we continue to focus on operational performance.

感謝您今天加入我們。我們希望在觀看本次演示後，您能夠了解我們如何取得強勁的業績以及我們如何繼續專注於營運績效。

Today, Sinead and I will be answering your questions. But first, I'd like to just take a moment to thank Tjerk Huysinga for all the work that he has done for us here at Shell. Tjerk has had a 35-year career, a very impressive career and has been pivotal in integrating the external market perspective into our strategy. So, we thought we would wish him well with a very strong quarter and thank him for all the effort he has put in.

今天，我和西尼德將回答大家的問題。但首先，我想花一點時間感謝 Tjerk Huysinga 在殼牌為我們所做的所有工作。 Tjerk 擁有 35 年的職業生涯，令人印象深刻，並且在將外部市場觀點融入我們的策略方面發揮了關鍵作用。因此，我們希望他能在這個季度表現出色，並感謝他所付出的一切努力。

And now if we move to the questions, Luke, can we please have 1 or 2 questions, please, from every person on the call, and I hand it over to you, Luke, let us know who the first caller is. Thank you.

現在，如果我們開始提問，盧克，我們可以請電話中的每個人問一兩個問題嗎？謝謝。

Our first caller is Michele Della Vigna from Goldman Sachs.

我們的第一位來電者是來自高盛的 Michele Della Vigna。

Congratulations on the strong delivery, and thank you, Tjerk, for all of your help over the years. I wanted to ask you 2 questions, if I may. The first one is, if I look at the delivery in this quarter, you've strengthened your balance sheet by $3 billion at the time when most of your peers actually increased the gearing.

恭喜您的順利交付，並感謝您，Tjerk，多年來的所有幫助。如果可以的話，我想問你兩個問題。第一個是，如果我看一下本季的交付情況，當大多數同業實際上增加了負債率時，您的資產負債表已經增強了 30 億美元。

I was wondering what would give you at this point, the confidence to increase the buyback from the current level and take advantage of the really cheap valuation to continue to buy back shares and accrue value per share?

我想知道此時什麼會給您帶來信心，從當前水平增加回購，並利用非常便宜的估值繼續回購股票並增加每股價值？

And then my second question is about the growing debate about relisting in the U.S. for some of the European oil companies have seen your comments. Total Energy has commented about it as well. I was wondering if you could walk us through perhaps what would you think would be some of the benefits but also some of the hurdles in considering such a potential material move.

我的第二個問題是關於在美國重新上市的爭論日益激烈，因為一些歐洲石油公司已經看到了您的評論。 Total Energy也對此發表了評論。我想知道您是否可以向我們介紹一下，您認為考慮這種潛在的實質舉措會帶來哪些好處，但也會遇到一些障礙。

Great. Michele, thank you for that. Sinead, do you want to take the first one? I can take the second.

偉大的。米歇爾，謝謝你。西妮德，你想拿第一個嗎？我可以拿第二個。

Certainly. And indeed, Michele, what you saw was put $3 billion towards the balance sheet this quarter. Of course, there's a couple of reasons about that. First of all, in this quarter, what we saw, of course, was fantastic operational performance, which drove good cash flows. So, I give one part of it.

當然。事實上，米歇爾，你看到的是本季資產負債表上投入了 30 億美元。當然，這有幾個原因。首先，在本季度，我們看到的當然是出色的營運業績，這推動了良好的現金流。所以，我給出其中的一部分。

We saw lower CapEx, of course, which gives a little bit of a bump in terms of the free cash flow, but also, of course, in terms of our distribution in terms of the buybacks, in terms of the phasing of them, a little bit fell into April. So, there was a little bit more that came through.

當然，我們看到了較低的資本支出，這在自由現金流方面帶來了一點衝擊，而且，當然，就我們的回購分配而言，就回購的分階段而言，一點點進入了四月。因此，還發生了一些事情。

What we do, of course, with the balance sheet is, and with debts, you see our debt fluctuate a little bit. We use it to demonstrate value whenever it comes through. But fundamentally, your question is really about distributions and the choice to do EUR 3.5 billion of share buybacks this quarter.

當然，我們對資產負債表所做的事情是，對於債務，你會看到我們的債務略有波動。每當它出現時，我們都會用它來展示價值。但從根本上來說，您的問題實際上是關於分配以及選擇本季進行 35 億歐元股票回購的問題。

As you know, we tend to look through various quarters. And what you saw, of course, in the past couple of quarters as we've had quarters with lower CFFO. And fundamentally, I've still done GBP 3.5 billion of buybacks at that point in time. So, we're now at 10 quarters where we've done buybacks of at least $3 billion. So, you see the pragmatic approach coming through and see some form of consistency.

如您所知，我們傾向於考察各個方面。當然，你在過去幾個季度中看到的情況是，我們有幾個季度的 CFFO 較低。從根本上說，我當時仍然進行了 35 億英鎊的回購。因此，我們現在已經有 10 個季度回購了至少 30 億美元。因此，您會看到務實的方法，並看到某種形式的一致性。

Thanks, Sinead. Michele, at your second question around the real estate, I think firstly, maybe just to sort of split it up into 2. I think let's start with the fundamentals, the valuation of this company. And what we have said in Capital Markets Day last June is our focus is on how we're going to grow those fundamentals, both on the free cash flow side, absolute as well as the free cash flow per share.

謝謝，西妮德。米歇爾，關於你關於房地產的第二個問題，我想首先，也許只是把它分成兩部分。我們在去年六月的資本市場日上說過，我們的重點是如何發展這些基本面，無論是絕對自由現金流方面還是每股自由現金流方面。

The latter being something we want to grow 10-plus percent per annum through to 2025 and the former all the way through to 2030, growing at roughly 6% per year. That is what our focus is.

我們希望後者在 2025 年每年增長 10% 以上，而前者到 2030 年每年增長約 6%。這就是我們的重點。

So, what we have said is performance discipline and simplification are at the core of what we need to be driving. And you already see through this quarter, for example, the outcome of that, you're starting to see more stability on the operational performance. You're starting to see the costs move in the right direction. You're starting to see the discipline on capital started to shine fill.

因此，我們所說的是性能紀律和簡化是我們需要推動的核心。例如，您已經看到了本季的結果，您開始看到營運績效更加穩定。您開始看到成本朝著正確的方向發展。你開始看到資本紀律開始閃耀。

And, of course, all the subsequent benefits of a stronger balance sheet and so on and so forth. That is what the focus and that's what the priority is. Then there's a second bucket, which admittedly, we acknowledge that we see our share price as being below what we think is a fair market value at the moment. And what we are doing there, again, what we said in Capital Markets Day, we were going to do is to continue to lean into buybacks.

當然，還有更強勁的資產負債表帶來的所有後續好處等等。這就是重點，這就是優先事項。然後還有第二個桶，誠然，我們承認我們認為我們的股價低於我們目前認為的公平市場價值。我們正在做的事情，就像我們在資本市場日所說的那樣，我們要做的是繼續傾向於回購。

And once again, here's another $3.5 billion buyback for this quarter, which I think underpins that commitment that we have going forward. The simple relisting is not going to address the first point around the fundamental valuation. It could potentially play a role in this disconnect that we see.

本季又進行了 35 億美元的回購，我認為這鞏固了我們未來的承諾。簡單的重新上市並不能解決基本估值的第一點。它可能在我們所看到的這種脫節中發揮作用。

But for now, what we're focused on very much is the buyback. And so, of course, as a management team, we have a duty of care to continue to look at all opportunities to bridge that valuation. And so, we will always have something like a listing or other elements under review, but I can tell you it is not a live discussion at the moment for us.

但目前我們最關注的是回購。因此，當然，作為管理團隊，我們有責任繼續尋找所有機會來彌補這一估值。因此，我們總是會審查清單或其他元素之類的內容，但我可以告訴您，目前我們還沒有進行現場討論。

Our absolute focus is on driving the strategy more value with less emissions to make us that investment case through the energy transition.

我們的絕對重點是推動該策略以更少的排放創造更大的價值，使我們成為能源轉型的投資案例。

Our next caller is Biraj Borkhataria from RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一位來電者是來自 RBC 資本市場的 Biraj Borkhataria。

The first one is just on the LNG segment. It's encouraging to see the LNG volumes at the top end of the guidance after you narrowed it to the trading update. But I noticed that in addition to the higher volumes, the gas realization in Integrated Gas was quite a bit higher than I would have expected. And last few quarters, it's been quite predictable. And I guess the big change is prelude quarter-on-quarter. So, can you just talk a bit about what's driving that? That would be helpful or if it's something else?

第一個是液化天然氣領域。在將其範圍縮小到交易更新後，看到液化天然氣數量位於指南的頂部，這令人鼓舞。但我注意到，除了產量更高之外，Integrated Gas 中的天然氣實現量比我的預期要高得多。過去幾個季度，情況完全可以預測。我想最大的變化是季度環比的前奏。那麼，您能談談是什麼推動了這一趨勢嗎？這會有幫助還是有其他什麼？

And then the second question is on OpEx. And you just highlighted you continue to drive it lower. I was just wondering, at the group level, can you talk about the difference between the structural cost reductions of what you're seeing relative to the inflationary pressures that are coming through because the net result is lower, but I'm just trying to understand how you think you're performing on the controllables.

第二個問題是關於營運支出的。你剛剛強調你繼續壓低股價。我只是想知道，在集團層面，您能否談談您所看到的結構性成本削減與正在經歷的通膨壓力之間的差異，因為最終結果較低，但我只是想了解您認為自己在可控因素上的表現如何。

And then maybe a cheeky third question, but you've removed some of the disclosures on mobility. I'm just wondering why that was?

然後也許是厚顏無恥的第三個問題，但你已經刪除了一些有關流動性的披露。我只是想知道為什麼會這樣？

On your first one, Biraj, so actually, let me just take the last one was a really quick one. Just very clear, we're trying to simplify everything across the organization at the moment. So, we looked at our disclosures, which are quite extensive as you probably know, looking at our data book in some detail, and we looked at which ones we actually use most of where do we get the questions, so we simplified across everything.

關於你的第一個，Biraj，所以實際上，讓我說最後一個是一個非常快的。非常明確的是，我們目前正在努力簡化整個組織的一切。因此，我們查看了我們的披露信息，正如您可能知道的那樣，這些信息相當廣泛，詳細地查看了我們的數據手冊，並且我們查看了我們實際使用最多的內容以及我們在哪裡獲得問題，因此我們簡化了所有內容。

It's basically bang for the buck, how much effort we've put in ensuring that we have all of these up to date, et cetera. So, nothing more than that. On the LNG side, you asked about in terms of the realized price. You're right, you saw that change between, I think, it was $8 and $9. You saw that coming through on the realized price, really simply put for us.

這基本上是物有所值的，我們付出了多少努力來確保我們擁有所有這些最新的東西，等等。所以，僅此而已。在液化天然氣方面，您詢問了已實現的價格。你是對的，我認為你看到了 8 美元和 9 美元之間的變化。您看到了實際價格的實現，這對我們來說真的很簡單。

What you see, of course, is that we are quite heavy in terms of Brent price or oil price markers on some of this. So, some of them are oil, some of them are pure JCC and, of course, others are gas price. But in Q1, what we saw was, of course, Brent relatively flat, but JCC with that lag, that really played through now, and that completely over-weighted or compares or covered for, in effect, the slightly weaker gas prices as well. So, that's what played out.

當然，你所看到的是，我們對布蘭特原油價格或石油價格標記的某些方面相當重視。所以，其中一些是石油，一些是純粹的JCC，當然還有一些是天然氣價格。但在第一季度，我們看到的當然是布蘭特原油相對持平，但 JCC 具有這種滯後性，現在確實發揮了作用，並且實際上完全超配或比較或覆蓋了稍微疲軟的天然氣價格。所以，這就是結果。

On the OpEx side, in terms of just where are we in terms of differences in structural performance, et cetera. You saw OpEx come down this quarter, you're right. But I would say, remember this phasing. So, you always see in terms of us Q4 OpEx going higher. Just to remind you on that, of course, Q4 is always decommissioning and restoration updates come through a few on bonuses and largely basically people billing us towards the end when that comes through as well.

在營運支出方面，就我們在結構性能差異等方面的情況而言。您看到本季營運支出有所下降，您是對的。但我想說，記住這個階段。因此，您總是會看到我們第四季的營運支出更高。只是提醒您，當然，第四季度總是退役和恢復更新，透過一些獎金來完成，基本上人們在結束時向我們收費。

So, we're seeing good progress. And we talked about it at Q4 of $1 billion in of the total of 2 to 3 that we had talked about. Where are we seeing it come out? We'll do another update for you at the end of Q2 and walk you through some detail on that, but we're seeing good progress. It's beginning to filter through the organization. You already saw the portfolio side of things where we play.

所以，我們看到了良好的進展。我們在第四季度討論了 10 億美元，其中我們討論了 2 到 3 個項目。我們在哪裡看到它出來？我們將在第二季末為您做另一次更新，並引導您了解一些細節，但我們看到了良好的進展。它開始在組織中滲透。您已經看到了我們所做的事情的投資組合方面。

Now, how we play in terms of structural change is coming through. It's the simplification. One of the ones I just gave you earlier in terms of what we disclosed, what we spend our time on and trying to focus on that, which makes most sense. So, you see it simplify, try and speed up accountability and make sure actually the business is focused on where it should be, which is really about delivering value at the end of the day, and each part of that is different per asset.

現在，我們在結構性變革方面的表現正在顯現。這就是簡化。我剛才給你們的資訊之一是我們披露的內容、我們花時間做的事情以及努力關注的事情，這是最有意義的。因此，您會看到它簡化了，嘗試並加快了問責制，並確保業務實際上專注於它應該做的事情，這實際上是在一天結束時交付價值，並且每個部分的每個部分都是不同的。

Our next caller is Lydia Rainforth from Barclays.

我們的下一個來電者是來自巴克萊銀行的莉迪亞·雷恩福斯 (Lydia Rainforth)。

And clearly, very, very good 1Q. But just an observation, 1Q does tend to benefit from limited insurance, better trading volumes, which don't always repeat in 2Q, 3Q. So, can you just talk to what we can expect from that Sprint 1 program that really keeps the momentum going for Shell into the rest of the year?

顯然，第一季非常非常好。但僅觀察一下，第一季確實傾向於受益於有限的保險、更好的交易量，而這並不總是在第二季、第三季重複。那麼，您能否談談我們對 Sprint 1 計劃的期望，該計劃真正讓殼牌在今年剩餘時間內保持動力？

And I suspect probably linked to that on the cost base, I'm just going about, I think you're introducing a new process as of July this year in terms of that kind of seem approach in terms of really simplifying things. What sort of impact do you expect that to have?

我懷疑可能與成本基礎有關，我只是想，我認為從今年 7 月起，你們將在真正簡化事情的那種看似方法方面引入一個新流程。您預計這會產生什麼樣的影響？

Yes, so Lidia, the comment of Q1 tends to be higher. So, there is that element for us with Q4 and Q1, we are skewed towards, particularly from a trading point of view, the Northern Hemisphere winter for our LNG business. However, what I would say is actually some of the trading optimization, which you referred to plays out at different times, actually just different aspects come through.

是的，所以莉迪亞，第一季的評論往往會更高。因此，對我們來說，第四季和第一季有一個因素，特別是從貿易角度來看，我們的液化天然氣業務傾向於北半球冬季。然而，我想說的實際上是一些交易優化，你提到的這些優化是在不同的時間進行的，實際上只是不同的方面發生了。

So, there are elements, for instance, of maintenance that play at different times. So, you see maintenance heavier in one quarter than another, but you also see seasonality around, for instance, driving season. So, we would expect to see, of course, our marketing results come up with driving season increasing within the U.S. as well.

因此，有些元素，例如，在不同時間發揮作用的維護元素。因此，您會發現某個季度的維護工作比另一個季度的維護工作要重，但您也會看到季節性，例如駕駛季節。因此，我們當然希望看到我們的行銷成果也隨著美國駕駛季節的增加而出現。

We then see, of course, beyond that, we see different things like, for instance, for loops. It tends to be about industrial maintenance and industrial activities. So, for instance, Q1 tends to be a little bit higher, and we see Q4 also higher. So, that spreads out across the various assets.

當然，除此之外，我們也看到了不同的東西，例如 for 迴圈。它往往與工業維護和工業活動有關。例如，第一季往往會更高一些，我們看到第四季也更高。因此，它分佈在各種資產中。

What you will see, though, and what is key here is that this is an organization who is looking to deliver on what is promised. So, what you're going to see, Lydia, is us continue to be focused on quarter after quarter being simply boring on this and delivering exactly what we said.

不過，您將會看到，這裡的關鍵是，這是一個希望兌現承諾的組織。所以，莉迪亞，你將看到的是，我們將繼續專注於一個又一個季度，對此感到無聊，並準確地交付我們所說的內容。

So, what you also see then is each asset knowing exactly what they need to deliver in terms of value and playing to that strength. So, that should provide the consistency across there. And, of course, you're going to see the drumbeat of further announcements coming through as we continue with delivering on exactly what we told you we would do.

因此，您還可以看到每項資產都確切地知道它們需要提供什麼價值並發揮這種優勢。因此，這應該可以提供一致性。當然，隨著我們繼續準確地履行我們告訴過您的事情，您將會看到更多公告的敲響。

The second part, of course, was around cost and the pace of it and taking things out. Good catch and these around female, I think what I referred to as last quarter as well, where we talked about changing and this is wider for others, it's about many of the standards that we have linked to the assets.

當然，第二部分是圍繞著成本、進度以及淘汰的問題。很好的收穫和圍繞女性的這些，我想我也提到了上個季度，我們談到了改變，這對其他人來說更廣泛，這是關於我們與資產相關的許多標準。

And what we basically said is, how do we reduce those down to what is the bare minimum? What is really required to hit our values, safety and actually correct operation for the environment, et cetera. But what is needed has to be fit for purpose for each asset. And it's not the same between an onshore asset and deepwater assets or a mobility asset or a refinery.

我們基本上說的是，我們如何將這些減少到最低限度？實現我們的價值觀、安全和實際正確的環境操作等真正需要什麼。但所需要的東西必須適合每項資產的用途。陸上資產與深水資產、移動資產或煉油廠之間並不相同。

So, that's the sort of thought process. So, those same standards are reducing by some 70%. But it's much more than that. It's not just that 70%. It's then how is that taken by each of the assets to do what they think is correct.

這就是這樣的思考過程。因此，這些相同的標準降低了約 70%。但它的意義遠不止於此。不只是那70%。然後是每個資產如何採取他們認為正確的做法。

It comes down to what assets need in terms of management information, what they need in terms of staffing levels, what they need in terms of legal support, et cetera. And that's the change that you're seeing.

這歸結為資產在管理資訊方面需要什麼，在人員配備水平方面需要什麼，在法律支援方面需要什麼，等等。這就是您所看到的變化。

Each asset each part of the business is looking at what are the risks, and therefore, what they need to cover those and to maximize value. So, that culture change will come through and has done very purposely.

業務的每個部分都在研究每項資產的風險，以及他們需要什麼來應對這些風險並實現價值最大化。因此，文化變革將會實現，而且是有目的的。

Our next caller is Alastair Syme from Citi.

我們的下一個來電者是花旗銀行的阿拉斯泰爾·賽姆 (Alastair Syme)。

Well look, I'll definitely share my best wishes to check a pilot intersected on several occasions over a long number of years. And sometimes we've agreed and sometimes we haven't, but it's always been first class in direction. So, I look forward to sharing a drink in a few weeks. A quick question, where do we stand on booking? So if you give us a little update on that?

好吧，我一定會分享我最美好的願望，檢查多年來多次相交的飛行員。有時我們同意，有時不同意，但方向始終是一流的。所以，我期待著幾週後分享一杯飲料。一個簡單的問題，我們在預訂方面的立場如何？那麼您能給我們一些最新消息嗎？

And then a longer one. While as you think about the strategic plan in year 1, I wanted to know whether your assumptions and the competitive landscape has remained sort of broadly within your range of expectations. Or has there been anything out there that's made you tweak your plan, push or pull harder in any one or more areas?

然後是更長的。當您考慮第一年的策略計劃時，我想知道您的假設和競爭格局是否大致在您的預期範圍內。或者是否有任何事情讓你調整你的計劃，在任何一個或多個領域更加努力地推動或拉動？

Thanks for and thank you for the kind words for Tjerk as well. Did you want to say a quick word on Booking first?

也感謝您對 Tjerk 的客氣話。您想先簡單介紹一下 Booking 嗎？

Yes, one line on that. I think we had said previously that we were going through a strategic review and that we concluded that and that our preferred option was towards divestments. We're continuing to pursue that route at this moment, and I look forward to being able to give you an update at some point in the future. You'll understand accounts they more than that at the moment.

是的，就這一點。我想我們之前曾說過，我們正在進行策略審查，我們的結論是，我們的首選選擇是撤資。目前我們正在繼續沿著這條路線前進，我期待著能夠在未來的某個時候向您提供最新資訊。你現在對帳戶的理解會比現在更多。

And to your second question there, Alastair. Look, I think the world around us, of course, has continued to be uncertain and volatile. And what you have seen is a number of things. I'd say, one, the amount of geopolitical risk that has played up the accentuation of the Russia-Ukraine issue, what we are seeing, of course, in the Middle East at the moment.

關於你的第二個問題，阿拉斯泰爾。當然，我認為我們周圍的世界仍然充滿不確定性和波動性。你所看到的是很多事情。我想說，第一，地緣政治風險的程度加劇了俄羅斯-烏克蘭問題，當然，我們目前在中東看到了這個問題。

And the challenging relationship across the U.S.-China access, all of it, of course, has just meant that, that volatility, that uncertainty that we had expected has been magnified, and we need to be able to adapt to that. And this is where I think it's reinforced my own conviction in the strategy that we have in something like LNG, where our ability to be able to have multiple supply points, our ability to have multiple demand points, our cross commodity exposures affords quite some resilience when you have such volatility.

當然，中美關係中充滿挑戰的關係，而這一切都意味著我們預期的波動性和不確定性被放大了，我們需要能夠適應這種情況。我認為這增強了我對液化天然氣等策略的信念，我們有能力擁有多個供應點，我們有能力擁有多個需求點，我們的跨商品敞口提供了相當大的彈性當你有這樣的波動性時。

Also, what we're seeing, of course, is from an external perspective is, different countries are dealing with their own respective challenges. Whether that's fiscal challenges, whether that is the need to step up, for example, defense budgets, health care services. And, therefore, the pace of the energy transition in some of those countries is varying.

當然，我們從外部角度看到的是，不同國家正在應對各自的挑戰。無論是財政挑戰，還是需要加強國防預算、醫療保健服務等。因此，其中一些國家的能源轉型步伐各不相同。

And, once again, I think our strength of being really focused on the global picture, but then honing in on the local realities has been key. And so, what does all this mean for the way that we are responding? I think we're doubling down on what we saw coming into Capital Markets Day, right?

而且，我再次認為，我們的優勢是真正關注全球局勢，但隨後又關注當地現實，這是關鍵。那麼，這一切對於我們的應對方式又意味著什麼呢？我認為我們正在加倍努力，以迎接資本市場日的到來，對吧？

We said at the time that there are some core basics we need to continue to follow through. We need to unlock the full potential of the asset base we have in place. And I think Q1 offered us a good glimpse of what that looks like when Monaca's up and running, when Prelude's up and running and so on and so forth.

我們當時就說過，有一些核心基礎需要我們繼續堅持下去。我們需要充分發揮現有資產基礎的潛力。我認為第一季讓我們很好地了解了 Monaca 啟動並運行、Prelude 啟動並運行等等時的情況。

We need to continue to keep that funnel of opportunities coming through. LNG Canada, our Brazilian project, our Gulf of Mexico project. We need to continue that cost momentum and bring down the structural cost, and we need to keep that discipline. So, all of those elements continue to play up in my mind and critically to contribute to the direction we're going.

我們需要繼續保持機會管道的暢通。加拿大液化天然氣公司、我們的巴西計畫、我們的墨西哥灣計畫。我們需要繼續這種成本動能並降低結構性成本，並且我們需要保持這種紀律。因此，所有這些元素繼續在我的腦海中浮現，並為我們前進的方向做出重要貢獻。

With all of that, we continue to see that disconnect between what our share price is and what that underlying valuation is, which is why, if anything, we have become hungry to continue to go for even more of, I think it was more time, right? So, I said, eating Shell. Our ability to continue to buy back more of Shell over the coming years. One in particular, our free cash flow yield continues to be a comfortable double-digit one or mid-double digits.

儘管如此，我們仍然看到我們的股價與基本估值之間存在脫節，這就是為什麼我們渴望繼續追求更多，我認為這是更多的時間， 正確的？所以，我說，吃Shell。我們有能力在未來幾年繼續回購更多殼牌股份。特別是，我們的自由現金流收益率仍然保持在兩位數一位或中兩位數的舒適水平。

So, all of that, I think, reinforces our direction and reinforces the need for that cultural evolution that we have committed to make, which I see some real green shoots and growing in confidence that we can move at a pace even faster than what we had anticipated. Thank you for the questions.

因此，我認為，所有這些都強化了我們的方向，並強化了我們致力於實現的文化進化的需要，我看到了一些真正的萌芽，並且越來越有信心，我們可以以比我們現在更快的速度前進。謝謝你的提問。

Our next caller is Paul Cheng from Scotiabank.

我們的下一個來電者是來自豐業銀行的 Paul Cheng。

Two questions, please. Way that your Pittsburgh, you can correct me, you're saying that in the first quarter, you're not running at full capacity. So, at this point on to improve the result in that, what is the operational improvement that we should expect? Or that is just going to be a function of selling the nonprofitable asset and also hoping for the margin to improve? That's the first question.

請教兩個問題。你的匹茲堡，你可以糾正我，你是說在第一季度，你沒有滿載運轉。那麼，在這一點上，為了改善結果，我們應該期望什麼樣的營運改善？或者這只是出售非營利資產並希望利潤率提高的功能？這是第一個問題。

Second question, clearly, is that it looks like the pace of energy transition perhaps is going to be a bit slower than previously assumed? And oil production may not peak until sometime next decade. You've been looking for your production in liquid production essentially flat, about 1.4 million barrels per day for the rest of the backing. Should we be listed, whether that is the right target? And whether that we should also eliminate the artificial band of looking at the exploration regions outside the existing area by 2025 or 2026?

顯然，第二個問題是，能源轉型的步伐似乎會比之前假設的要慢一些？石油產量可能要到下個十年的某個時候才會達到高峰。您一直在尋找液體產量基本上持平，剩餘的支持量約為每天 140 萬桶。我們是否應該上市，這是否是正確的目標？我們是否也應該在2025年或2026年之前消除在現有區域之外尋找勘探區域的人為限制？

Thank you. Great. I'll try to cover both of those, Paul. And firstly, let me make a quick apology. My team here informed me that it was actually Lucas who said we were eating ourselves not Martin, so I stand corrected. Paul, on your point around Monaca or Shell Polymers Monaca. A couple of things. I think, firstly, to recognize this first quarter was one where we were indeed trying to drive up the performance of all the trains in particular, that third train, which you'd recall had the equipment failure or equipment faulty realization, which is what we were working to improve.

謝謝。偉大的。我會盡力涵蓋這兩個問題，保羅。首先，讓我快速道歉。我的團隊告訴我，實際上是盧卡斯說我們在吃自己而不是馬丁，所以我糾正了。 Paul，關於 Monaca 或 Shell Polymers Monaca 的觀點。有幾件事。我認為，首先，要認識到第一季我們確實在努力提高所有列車的性能，特別是第三列列車，你會記得它有設備故障或設備錯誤實現，這就是我們正在努力改進。

And now that we have been able to fix that, we have seen all 3 trains at robust capacity. As we go into the next quarter, it's all about reliable operations now. It's stabilizing that facility. What I'm particularly proud of, I spoke earlier about culture change, right? And this was a great example that the team in Monaca showed that this is a culture change that is no longer just topped down.

現在我們已經能夠解決這個問題，我們已經看到所有 3 列列車都具有強大的運力。當我們進入下一個季度時，現在最重要的是可靠的營運。它正在穩定該設施。我特別自豪的是，我之前談到了文化變革，對吧？這是摩納卡團隊的一個很好的例子，表明這是一種不再只是自上而下的文化變革。

But actually, now what you see is truly across the organization. People grabbing on to the mantra of how are we going to achieve our values and drive value. And what the team there did was, you'll recall, we had talked about the facility potentially allowing us to produce around 40 different grades of polyethylene.

但實際上，現在你所看到的確實是整個組織的情況。人們牢牢抓住我們將如何實現我們的價值觀並推動價值的口頭禪。您可能還記得，那裡的團隊所做的是，我們曾討論過該設施有可能使我們能夠生產大約 40 種不同等級的聚乙烯。

And the current cash generation opportunity, given the disconnect between oil prices and gas prices is just about flow. It's just about how much we can get polyethylene through. And so, the team pivoted to be able to drive what they call fewer for longer strategy. And in essence, what they're doing is they're going for a handful of grades where we know the operating envelope is working well, and they will drive that to the limit so that we can get as much volume throughput as we can to be able to generate the cash.

鑑於石油價格和天然氣價格之間的脫節，目前的現金產生機會只是流量。這只是關於我們可以讓聚乙烯通過多少。因此，團隊轉向能夠推動他們所謂的「更少、更長期」的策略。從本質上講，他們正在做的是，他們正在追求一些我們知道操作範圍運作良好的等級，他們會將其推向極限，以便我們可以獲得盡可能多的產量能夠產生現金。

A really nice example of how they were able to adjust to the circumstances in the market to unlock value. And so, expect that to play up, expect us to continue to drive value through that as we stabilize the facility and over time, continue to premiumize. This is a journey of multiple months and years, of course, but we are moving very much in the right direction.

這是他們如何適應市場環境以釋放價值的一個很好的例子。因此，預計這一點將會發揮作用，隨著我們穩定設施並隨著時間的推移，繼續實現高端化，預計我們將繼續透過這一點來推動價值。當然，這是一個持續數月甚至數年的旅程，但我們正在朝著正確的方向前進。

On your broader point around liquids production, the pace of the energy transition is consistent with what our beliefs have been. So, there hasn't been a fundamental change. This is not a new revelation. We have always said that we want to be able to be resilient to different degrees or different paces of the energy transition, simply because both the shape and the pace of the energy transition are uncertain.

從更廣泛的液體生產角度來看，能源轉型的步伐與我們的信念是一致的。所以，並沒有根本性的改變。這並不是什麼新發現。我們總是說，我們希望能夠適應不同程度或不同速度的能源轉型，因為能源轉型的形式和速度都是不確定的。

And so, our strategy has been one that is resilient to that. And so, what we have done on the LNG side is to say we are going to grow that LNG business by 20% to 30% through to 2030.

因此，我們的策略是能夠適應這種情況的策略。因此，我們在液化天然氣方面所做的就是說，到 2030 年，我們將把液化天然氣業務成長 20% 至 30%。

On the liquid side or the oil production side, to your point, we see that continuing to be a delivery of around 1.4 million barrels per day, plus or minus. And that's a focus that we have to be able to continue to high grade and make sure that it's not just about liquids production or volumes, it's all about making sure we continue to focus on those highest margin barrels. The ones which we have enjoyed in our portfolio, the ones that have given us the leading CFFO per barrel compared to our peers.

在液體方面或石油生產方面，就您而言，我們看到每天的交付量仍然約為 140 萬桶，上下浮動。這是我們必須能夠繼續保持高品位的一個重點，並確保這不僅僅是液體產量或數量，而是確保我們繼續專注於那些利潤率最高的桶。這些是我們在我們的投資組合中所享受的，那些使我們每桶 CFFO 與同行相比處於領先地位。

And our reserve base, of course, given it is preferentially skewed towards deepwater and LNG allows us to do more of that. On your point around exploration, look, the focus of our exploration is to tap into basins where we feel we have a true competitive edge, true competitive edge. And you've seen that, in particular in the Atlantic Basin, where we are leveraging Gulf of Mexico, Brazil, Nigeria, into a place like Namibia, and we will do more of that.

當然，我們的儲備基地優先偏向深水，而液化天然氣使我們能夠做更多的事情。關於您關於勘探的觀點，您看，我們勘探的重點是開發我們認為擁有真正競爭優勢的盆地。你們已經看到了這一點，特別是在大西洋盆地，我們正在利用墨西哥灣、巴西、奈及利亞進入納米比亞這樣的地方，我們還會做更多這樣的事。

So, we are not necessarily constraining ourselves, but we are focusing on the areas where we can get the highest bang for our buck. And in the world of making sure that we are focused and constrained in how we allocate every dollar of capital, I think that's a wise move for us to continue to follow through on. Thank you for the questions, Paul.

因此，我們不一定會限制自己，但我們會專注於能夠獲得最大回報的領域。在確保我們專注並限制如何分配每一美元資本的世界中，我認為這是我們繼續堅持下去的明智之舉。謝謝你的提問，保羅。

Our next caller is Josh Stone from UBS.

我們的下一個來電者是瑞銀集團的喬許史東。

Two questions, please. One on LNG. You've been connected in the press with a couple of transactions that would expand your LNG portfolio. I understand you won't be able to comment. But maybe more broadly, why now would be the right time to add to your LNG portfolio through acquisition and how you would ensure you get a fair value given what it seems to be a competitive process?

請教兩個問題。其中之一是液化天然氣。您已在媒體上報導過幾筆交易，這些交易將擴大您的液化天然氣投資組合。我知道您無法發表評論。但也許更廣泛地說，為什麼現在是透過收購增加液化天然氣投資組合的最佳時機，以及考慮到這似乎是一個競爭過程，如何確保獲得公平價值？

And second question on the departure from the power market in China. Can you maybe just talk about what was it about this business that led to your decision to depart? Also curious you haven't exited the EV charging business. So is it the case that maybe you don't see the need to integrate between your power business and our easy charging business for the portfolio more broadly?

第二個問題是關於脫離中國電力市場的。您能談談是什麼讓您決定離開這家公司嗎？另外很好奇你還沒退出電動車充電業務。那麼，您是否認為沒有必要將您的電力業務與我們的輕鬆充電業務進行更廣泛的產品組合整合？

Thank you, Josh. I'll take the first one. Sinead, if you want to take the power market. I suspect I have a sense of the deals that you have referenced there, Josh, that are being talked about in the press. I'd separate them. I think, one, for example, been talked about Ruwais LNG and Abu Dhabi.

謝謝你，喬許。我就拿第一個。西尼德，如果你想佔領電力市場。喬什，我懷疑我對你提到的交易有所了解，媒體正在談論這些交易。我會把他們分開。我認為，例如，人們談論的是魯維斯液化天然氣和阿布達比。

That's one which Abu Dhabi is developing on a greenfield basis. I won't give any specific comments other than to say organic opportunities to continue to grow our LNG portfolio opportunities that potentially can add more supply points to the portfolio in attractive locations where the carbon intensity is low and the value potential is high, are very much down the lane that we want to continue to grow.

這是阿布達比正在新建的項目。我不會給出任何具體評論，只是說繼續發展我們的液化天然氣投資組合的有機機會，這些機會可能會在碳強度低且價值潛力高的有吸引力的地區為投資組合增加更多供應點，這是非常好的。

We have a fundamental conviction that this is not an LNG sprint of a few years, but that LNG will be required for decades to come. And this is why continuing to find those differentiated opportunities is something we will look at.

我們有一個基本信念，即這不是幾年內的液化天然氣衝刺，而是未來幾十年都需要液化天然氣。這就是為什麼我們將繼續尋找那些差異化的機會。

We are indeed not looking at big M&A in that space. Whenever we're looking at LNG opportunities, we're looking at bolt-ons to our existing portfolio where we feel that the capabilities we have, the portfolio we have, the positions that we have built up over the years would allow us to be able to unlock more value than maybe a seller would be.

我們確實不考慮該領域的大型併購。每當我們尋找液化天然氣機會時，我們都會考慮對現有產品組合進行補充，我們認為我們擁有的能力、我們擁有的產品組合以及我們多年來建立的地位將使我們能夠釋放比賣家更多的價值。

And so, we would be looking at any of these opportunities, of course, being accretive to our overall delivery as an LNG business for Shell. I'll leave it at that.

因此，我們當然會考慮任何這些機會，以增加我們作為殼牌液化天然氣業務的整體交付量。我就這樣吧。

I think this was quite a simple one in the sense that what we talked about with respect to Power is that we will be very disciplined in this area. We're very focused, and I think it was last quarter that I actually talked through that we'll stay in a select number of markets, which I referenced to places like the U.S., places like potentially parts of Europe, et cetera.

我認為這是一個非常簡單的問題，因為我們在權力方面所討論的是我們將在這一領域非常自律。我們非常專注，我認為我實際上是在上個季度討論過我們將留在選定的一些市場，我提到了美國等地、歐洲潛在部分地區等地。

And we went through that in some detail. But whilst China remains attractive, it is a very different market as well, of course. And what you're drawing is the linkage between the fundamental selling B2B linked to EV. And those are, of course, very, very different. So, why are we exiting one and staying in the EV side?

我們詳細地討論了這一點。儘管中國仍然具有吸引力，但它當然也是一個非常不同的市場。你所繪製的是與電動車相關的基本銷售 B2B 之間的連結。當然，這些是非常非常不同的。那麼，我們為什麼要退出電動車領域並留在電動車領域？

So, in terms of the exit, we want to stay in markets where we bring differentiated capabilities where we have the ability to deal with intermittency where we have the ability to use our trading and optimization capability, battery power, a range of different things, and we didn't have that skill from a dedicated perspective, in China. That wasn't one where we were going to have a capability versus somebody else.

因此，就退出而言，我們希望留在能夠帶來差異化能力的市場，我們有能力處理間歇性，我們有能力使用我們的交易和優化能力、電池電量以及一系列不同的東西，在中國，從專門的角度來看，我們不具備這種技能。這不是我們有能力與其他人競爭的地方。

However, on the EV side, that's where our brand, our experience and our partnerships have really, really played out. Of course, China is slightly different. There's very high utilization risk compared to anywhere else, frankly, compared to the U.S. or Europe. And therefore, what we see is very attractive returns.

然而，在電動車方面，這才是我們的品牌、我們的經驗和我們的合作關係真正發揮作用的地方。當然，中國略有不同。坦白說，與美國或歐洲相比，與其他任何地方相比，使用風險非常高。因此，我們看到的是非常有吸引力的回報。

But, of course, that's going to change over time. So, it will all depend on how policies play out across the world. But specifically to your China point, we're very comfortable decoupling what was the B2B business versus an effect linked to the EV side of things, where, frankly, our brand plays out in a very strong way.

但是，當然，這種情況會隨著時間的推移而改變。因此，這完全取決於政策在世界各地的實施。但具體到你的中國觀點，我們非常樂意將 B2B 業務與電動車方面的影響脫鉤，坦白說，我們的品牌在電動車方面發揮著非常強大的作用。

Our next call is Irene Himona from Bernstein.

我們的下一個電話是來自伯恩斯坦的艾琳希莫納。

Congratulations on these very strong results. Two questions. First, on Upstream. You referred to improved performance and higher controllable availability. How sustainable do you think that is? And what drives it? If you can talk around, is it a change in processes or working practices and so on?

祝賀取得這些非常強勁的成果。兩個問題。首先，在上游。您提到了改進的性能和更高的可控可用性。您認為這有多可持續？是什麼驅動它？如果可以談，是流程或工作方式等方面的改變嗎？

And then my second question, trading was strong in power and products. In your 2023 if you very helpfully quantify the contribution last year of trading for both Power and products, can we hope or expect perhaps a similar annual disclosure regarding LNG trading?

然後我的第二個問題，交易的力量和產品都很強大。在 2023 年，如果您非常有幫助地量化了去年電力和產品交易的貢獻，我們是否可以希望或期望有關液化天然氣交易的類似年度披露？

All right. Thank you, Irene. I'll take the first one and then leave what I suspect will be a sure second one to Sinead. I think firstly, on the upstream side, a lot of work has gotten us here. This is not a question of months or even a year. This has been a multiyear journey that has gotten this level of reliability and focus across our assets.

好的。謝謝你，艾琳。我會選擇第一個，然後把我懷疑肯定是第二個的留給西尼德。我認為首先，在上游方面，我們已經做了很多工作。這不是幾個月甚至一年的問題。經過多年的歷程，我們的資產才獲得如此高的可靠性和關注。

We're seeing it, by the way, in our Deepwater business. We've seen it in the conventional oil and gas business, and it seems to be now really sort of coming across many of the assets. And that's very pleasing.

順便說一句，我們在深水業務中也看到了這一點。我們已經在傳統石油和天然氣業務中看到了這種情況，現在似乎確實遇到了許多資產。這非常令人高興。

I think it's a tribute to some of our leaders, someone like Zoe, who's leading the integrated gas upstream business and her Executive Vice Presidents, who have made this operational performance and absolute key focus area for them. And what are they doing with that? They're looking at indeed the processes and making sure that the processes are pointing the different contributors to reliability in the same direction.

我認為這是對我們一些領導者的讚揚，例如領導綜合天然氣上游業務的佐伊（Zoe）和她的執行副總裁，他們為他們創造了這一營運績效和絕對關鍵的重點領域。他們用它做什麼？他們確實正在研究流程，並確保這些流程將可靠性的不同貢獻者指向同一方向。

You see it, for example, in the way that some of our projects and technology teams are working with our asset teams. We've seen it in the deepwater space recently. The objectives are much more aligned. The goals are much more aligned and you're seeing the power of that coming through day and day out.

例如，您可以從我們的一些專案和技術團隊與我們的資產團隊合作的方式中看到這一點。我們最近在深水空間看到了它。目標更加一致。目標更加一致，你會看到日復一日的力量。

By the way, does that mean that all is fine? No. Of course, we have a long, long way to go. But we are institutionalizing over the quarters, 1 quarter at a time, that real rigor in the way that we drive operational performance. An element of it is how also we reward folks where the consistency of excellent delivery rather than just thinking about the next new project is an important part of it.

順便問一下，這是否意味著一切都很好？不，當然，我們還有很長的路要走。但我們每季都在製度化，一次一個季度，以真正嚴格的方式推動營運績效。其中一個要素是我們如何獎勵那些堅持優秀交付而不是只考慮下一個新專案的人。

I also have to recognize some of the improvements that we have made in areas like overall proactive maintenance, where, for example, using some of the AI capabilities we have.

我還必須認識到我們在整體主動維護等領域所做的一些改進，例如使用我們擁有的一些人工智慧功能。

We have EUR 5 trillion rows of data that are being fed from some 5 million sensors across the organization with 18,000 pieces of equipment that are feeding into it with nerve centers that are sitting in places like the U.S. and Bangalore, looking to be able to create capabilities that allow or that create signals for our operators to intervene ahead of certain upsets.

我們擁有價值 5 兆歐元的數據，這些數據來自整個組織內約 500 萬個感測器和 18,000 台設備，這些設備透過位於美國和班加羅爾等地的神經中樞輸入，希望能夠創建允許或為我們的操作員創建信號以在某些混亂之前進行幹預的功能。

It's helped us in the LNG space. As I've mentioned in the past, to the tune of 1% to 2% improvement in reliability at low cost. All of that is just building that next level of rigor when it comes to operational performance and something that I think we are growing in confidence around and starting to be able to sort of embed on a much more consistent basis through the company. Sinead?

它在液化天然氣領域為我們提供了幫助。正如我過去提到的，以低成本提高可靠性 1% 到 2%。所有這些都只是在營運績效方面建立更高水準的嚴格性，我認為我們對這一點的信心正在增強，並開始能夠在公司中以更一致的方式嵌入。西妮德？

Yes. And on your trading question, I mean one of the reasons, of course, that we disclose a little bit more in terms of the res sector in terms of the information there is simply put because we don't have as many underlying assets there. So, that's why we give you a little bit of the breakdown.

是的。關於你的交易問題，我的意思是，當然，我們在資源部門方面披露了更多的信息，簡單地說，因為我們在那裡沒有那麼多的基礎資產。因此，這就是我們為您提供一些詳細資訊的原因。

And of course, fundamentally, across our assets, our T&O or trading and optimization works because of the underlying assets. So, it's not a so you can have one without the other. The magic happens when we link the 2 together because they're taking the products and ensuring what molecules, electrons, whatever it may be, they're in the right place at the right time and a huge part of that is coming from the underlying assets, slightly different in U.S.

當然，從根本上說，在我們的資產中，我們的 T&O 或交易和優化之所以有效，是因為基礎資產。所以，這並不是可以兩者兼得的情況。當我們將兩者連接在一起時，奇蹟就會發生，因為它們正在獲取產品並確保分子、電子，無論它是什麼，它們在正確的時間出現在正確的位置，其中很大一部分來自底層資產，在美國略有不同

In terms of disclosures, of course, what we gave you was 2% to 4% grew actually uplift for our T&O business, our T&O part of the organization. And we said specifically, which is a bit that you should probably look to is that integrated gas or the LNG part is at the mid-to upper end of that. And, of course, all products part is at the mid- to lower end.

當然，就揭露而言，我們為您提供的實際上是我們的 T&O 業務（我們組織的 T&O 部分）的 2% 到 4% 的成長。我們特別指出，您可能應該注意的是，綜合天然氣或液化天然氣部分位於其中的中高端。當然，所有產品都處於中低端。

So, I think those are the disclosures that we've given.

所以，我認為這些是我們已經披露的資訊。

Our next caller is Ryan Todd from Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個來電者是 Piper Sandler 的 Ryan Todd。

Maybe a follow-up on the comments on trading and optimization in our Integrated Gas business. As you think about the outlook over the next 1 to 2 years, given an LNG market that seems to have settled into maybe more modestly priced LNG environment with maybe a little less volatility than we've seen over the past couple of years. How should we think about the trading and optimization outlook for the Integrated Gas business in the medium term?

也許是對我們綜合天然氣業務的交易和優化的評論的後續行動。當你思考未來 1 到 2 年的前景時，考慮到液化天然氣市場似乎已經進入了價格更適中的液化天然氣環境，波動性可能比我們過去幾年看到的要小一些。我們該如何看待中期綜合燃氣業務的交易和優化前景？

And then maybe a second question on CapEx. Last year, you reduced the targeted medium-term outlook for capital spend. You've done a great job instilling confidence in terms of cost control and downward pressure there. What are you seeing in terms of cost inflation across your portfolio, particularly in LNG and deepwater and what risk or tension does that pose as you try to drive capital costs lower across the portfolio?

然後可能是關於資本支出的第二個問題。去年，你們降低了資本支出的中期目標前景。你們在成本控制和下行壓力方面樹立了信心，做得很好。您對整個投資組合（尤其是液化天然氣和深水）的成本通膨有何看法？

Great. All right. Do you want to take the first one? I can touch on the second one.

偉大的。好的。你想拿第一個嗎？我可以談談第二個。

In terms of sort of the trading and optimization outlook and in terms of going forward on LNG, I think it comes back again to the fact that we marry the 2 parts together, as you know, Ryan. So, is our underlying equity story for the volumes that we've got. And of course, then depending on the length that we have, how much we can actually play into the market.

就交易和優化前景以及液化天然氣的未來而言，我認為這又回到了我們將這兩部分結合在一起的事實，正如你所知，瑞安。因此，這就是我們現有數量的基礎股票故事。當然，然後取決於我們擁有的長度，我們實際上可以進入市場的程度。

What we are seeing, of course, is that this sort of price point, you're seeing latent demand actually lift, particularly in Southeast Asia. So, of course, interesting of these sort of prices you're seeing parties like Vietnam, Pakistan, even India coming in more into the market and therefore, creating more demand and, of course, inching the price upwards as well.

當然，我們看到的是，在這種價格點上，你會看到潛在需求實際上正在上升，特別是在東南亞。因此，當然，有趣的是，你會看到越南、巴基斯坦、甚至印度等國家更多地進入市場，從而創造更多的需求，當然，價格也會上漲。

It's quite small, but you can see that change over coming from coal waste as well. So, the small changes in supply will actually have an outsized impact on price from time to time because it is a tight market that we see going forward.

它很小，但你也可以看到煤炭廢物帶來的改變。因此，供應的微小變化實際上會時不時地對價格產生巨大影響，因為我們認為未來市場將會緊張。

I go back to was Freeport last year or just before that, but it was just an immense change a tiny volume, frankly, but you saw how much it played is in the market. And that for us is where it's an interesting one because given the size of the assets we have for not just the liquefaction assets and the production, we also, of course, have an amazing amount of vessels.

我去年或之前就回到了自由港，但坦白說，這只是一個巨大的變化，一個很小的數量，但你看到它在市場上發揮了多大作用。對我們來說，這是一個有趣的地方，因為考慮到我們擁有的資產規模，不僅僅是液化資產和生產，我們當然還有數量驚人的船隻。

And those vessels allow us to be able to move the product where it needs to be or in this case, the LNG where it needs to be. So, when those that volatility or those changes or disruptions in the market happen, that's where we managed to take advantage of and actually make even more returns.

這些船隻使我們能夠將產品運送到需要的地方，或者在這種情況下，將液化天然氣運送到需要的地方。因此，當市場出現波動或變化或擾亂時，我們就可以設法利用並實際上獲得更多回報。

So, it's very difficult to predict what's going to happen in the next 2 years in terms of the LNG market, but we see more demand coming in.

因此，很難預測未來兩年液化天然氣市場會發生什麼，但我們看到更多的需求進來。

Then Ryan, on your inflationary question, there's a couple of things. I think, firstly, it's just becoming much more rigorous in the way that we allocate capital.

那麼瑞安，關於你的通貨膨脹問題，有幾件事。我認為，首先，我們分配資本的方式變得更加嚴格。

And you see that, I think, coming through. We've had opportunities where we could have exceeded lower returns because of the inflationary pressure, where we decided to pause Gato do Mato in Brazil is a good example, where we said, no, we want to recycle it, and we want to get a better price point. Otherwise, we're not going to simply invest for the sake of it.

我想，你已經看到了這一點。由於通貨膨脹壓力，我們有機會超越較低的回報，我們決定暫停巴西的 Gato do Mato 就是一個很好的例子，我們說，不，我們想回收它，我們希望得到更好的價格點。否則，我們不會只是為了投資而投資。

And so, I think there's an element of rigor and capital allocation discipline that's important here. On the inflationary end of it, what we see at the moment is inflation quarter from portfolio level at around the 5% mark, plus or minus.

因此，我認為嚴格的資本配置紀律在這裡很重要。在通膨方面，我們目前看到的是投資組合水準的季度通膨率在 5% 左右（上下）。

There are certain elements or certain categories that are more in the 6% to 10% range. You see it, for example, in FPSOs, you see it with subsea hardware. But by and large, on a portfolio basis, you're talking about 5%.

某些元素或某些類別的含量較多在 6% 到 10% 的範圍內。例如，您可以在 FPSO 中看到它，您可以在海底硬體中看到它。但總的來說，在投資組合的基礎上，你談論的是 5%。

And so, a big focus for us is what can we continue to do to be able to at least mitigate a portion of that, difficult to mitigate all of it, but a portion of it while we continue to exercise enhanced discipline in the way we allocate that capital. Thank you for the questions, Ryan.

因此，我們關注的重點是我們可以繼續做什麼，以至少能夠減輕其中的一部分，很難減輕全部，但在我們繼續以我們的方式加強紀律的同時，我們可以減輕其中的一部分。謝謝你的提問，瑞安。

Our next caller is Alejandro Vigil from Santander.

我們的下一個來電者是來自桑坦德銀行的亞歷杭德羅·維吉爾。

One question about Namibia has been a very exciting quarter for some other players in the area. What can you tell us about your exploration works there and update on your activity?

關於納米比亞的一個問題對該地區的其他一些參與者來說是一個非常令人興奮的季度。您能告訴我們您在那裡的勘探工作以及您的活動的最新情況嗎？

And the second question is about divestments. You have announced EUR 1 billion this quarter, which are your expectations for the rest of the year in terms of cash in from divestments?

第二個問題是關於撤資。您本季宣布了 10 億歐元，您對今年剩餘時間的撤資現金預期是多少？

Thank you, Alejandro, do you want to start with the divestment one? I can touch on the Namibia.

謝謝你，亞歷杭德羅，你想從撤資開始嗎？我可以談談納米比亞。

Yes, very short on that one, indeed. I think it's probably coming back to what we said at Capital Markets Day, where we play. We will play where we have differentiated capabilities. And you see us that exit that we talked about earlier, the great question earlier around from Paul in terms of China as well and moving on to the B2B business.

是的，確實很短。我認為這可能又回到了我們在資本市場日上所說的話。我們將在我們擁有差異化能力的地方發揮作用。你可以看到我們之前討論過的退出，保羅之前提出的關於中國以及 B2B 業務的重大問題。

You've seen that on other things. This quarter, indeed, South coast wins in the U.S. where we just don't feel that we can play in the right way given the returns that we would see, and we leave it to others who can do so in a different manner to us.

你在其他事情上也看到過這一點。事實上，本季度南海岸在美國獲勝，考慮到我們所看到的回報，我們只是覺得我們無法以正確的方式進行比賽，我們將其留給其他可以以與我們不同的方式做到這一點的人。

So, there's a number of those that you see coming through as well. And, of course, we've already announced the Pakistan divestment. We're looking to go towards completion. So, you'll see a drumbeat coming through of where we step back or exit and divest from certain aspects of the portfolio, where simply it doesn't hit our hurdle.

因此，您也看到了許多這樣的情況。當然，我們已經宣布從巴基斯坦撤資。我們希望盡快完成。因此，你會看到我們後退或退出並從投資組合的某些方面撤資的鼓聲，而這些方面根本沒有遇到我們的障礙。

And that comes back to what Wael was saying, the discipline that we are showing to ensure that we hit everything that we said to you that we were going to do performance not promise, as I've said it before, that is playing out across the full portfolio. And we're doing that because we have a wonderful position to be in.

這又回到了韋爾所說的，我們所表現出的紀律，是為了確保我們兌現我們對你們說過的一切，我們要做的是表現，而不是承諾，正如我之前說過的，這正在整個過程中發揮作用。我們這樣做是因為我們擁有一個絕佳的位置。

When we're sitting where we are, where the business is delivering very well, as you've seen from this quarter, where you're delivering over EUR 7 billion on earnings, over GBP 13 billion in terms of CFFO and more to come as we show the discipline on CapEx, show the discipline on OpEx, et cetera, our alternative is always going to be to have the ability to buy back shares. And you've seen us do that now 10 quarters in a row, so above EUR 3 billion.

當我們所處的位置時，業務交付非常好，正如您從本季度看到的那樣，您將實現超過 70 億歐元的收益，超過 130 億英鎊的 CFFO 以及未來更多當我們展示資本支出的紀律、營運支出的紀律等時，我們的替代方案始終是有能力回購股票。您已經看到我們現在連續 10 個季度都這樣做，因此銷售額超過 30 億歐元。

So, in terms of the divestments that come, there is definitely more to come. And of course, we look forward to updating you as we go through.

因此，就即將到來的撤資而言，肯定還會有更多的撤資。當然，我們期待為您提供最新進展。

Thanks, Sinead. Your first question on Namibia Alejandro, what I would say is we continue our de-risking program there. We continue to drill exploration and appraisal wells and study the results of it. And importantly, we continue to study the results from many of our neighboring blocks to be able to better inform our own choices.

謝謝，西妮德。關於納米比亞亞歷杭德羅的第一個問題，我想說的是我們繼續在那裡實施去風險計畫。我們繼續鑽探勘探井和評估井並研究其結果。重要的是，我們繼續研究許多鄰近街區的結果，以便能夠更好地為我們自己的選擇提供資訊。

We're not in a race here to be able to put the facility in place. What we have been very clear with the team on is this is a new basin. This is a complex reservoir. Significant volume is clear, but complex in terms of the porosities and the permeabilities. And so, it is important that we continue to ensure that if we are to invest significant capital here, we want to be able to have sufficiently de-risked it and make sure that we can deliver the sort of returns that our shareholders expect of us.

我們並不是為了將設施安裝到位而進行競賽。我們已經向團隊明確表示這是一個新盆地。這是一個複雜的水庫。大量的體積是清晰的，但在孔隙率和滲透率方面卻很複雜。因此，重要的是，我們要繼續確保，如果我們要在這裡投入大量資本，我們希望能夠充分降低風險，並確保我們能夠提供股東期望的回報。

And that's the mandate that the team is working on. So, working as quickly as they can, but with a clear objective to provide the right de-risking for us. I think the recent discovery from GAAP, I think, adds some excellent data points for the overall basin, and those will be taken into our broader considerations as we think about where we go next in our de-risking program. Thank you for the question, Alejandro.

這就是團隊正在努力完成的任務。因此，我們要盡快開展工作，但要有明確的目標，為我們提供正確的去風險方案。我認為 GAAP 最近的發現為整個流域增加了一些出色的數據點，當我們考慮前往風險計劃下一步的發展方向時，這些數據將被納入我們更廣泛的考慮範圍。謝謝你的提問，亞歷杭德羅。

Our next call is Christyan Malek from JP Morgan.

我們的下一個電話是來自摩根大通的 Christyan Malek。

And yes, just thank you very much, Tjerk for all the help over the years and also congrats to Oswald. So, the first question, if I may, is regarding what seems to be still quite a large degree of inconsistency in terms of cash flow, the cash flows from last quarter to this quarter, I mean 60% new compare your cash flow variability to one of life Exxon, it's far more.

是的，非常感謝 Tjerk 多年來的所有幫助，也祝賀奧斯瓦爾德。因此，第一個問題，如果可以的話，是關於現金流量方面似乎仍然存在很大程度的不一致，從上個季度到本季度的現金流量，我的意思是60% 新，將您的現金流量波動性與生命埃克森之一，它的意義遠不止於此。

And so, I guess the question I'm asking is, what level or range of cash flow through the quarters are you comfortable with? Given that volatility can be quite unpredictable. And within that same question, where do you think or sort of a normalized level of cash flow should be? And because I'm also trying to understand, when you say the Sprint, when does the sprint finish? What are you happy with? In the context of your KPIs to say we're done.

因此，我想我要問的問題是，您對各季度現金流量的水平或範圍感到滿意嗎？鑑於波動性可能相當難以預測。在同一個問題中，您認為現金流的正常水準應該在哪裡？因為我也試著去理解，當你說衝刺時，衝刺什麼時候結束？你有什麼高興的事？根據您的 KPI，我們已經完成了。

We can now move to the marathon because all of the things you talk about are improvements that all businesses should be doing, and it's wonderful to see it. I just want to understand what's the end of the runway on this first initial phase?

我們現在可以轉向馬拉松，因為你談論的所有事情都是所有企業都應該做的改進，很高興看到它。我只是想了解第一個初始階段的跑道終點是什麼？

And that sort of segues into my second question around your molecules. The LNG business is exceptional. I just wonder whether you're going to thinking or planning to be as competitive and is scalable in the oil business.

這就引出了我關於分子的第二個問題。液化天然氣業務非常出色。我只是想知道您是否會考慮或計劃在石油業務中保持競爭力和可擴展性。

But given your comments around transition and what seems to be potentially a bullish scenario, why aren't you thinking or talking about potential for consolidation given the window that we have to acquire oil barrels and particularly given the difficulty into building with a huge increase in CapEx necessary?

但是，鑑於您對過渡的評論以及似乎潛在的看漲情景，考慮到我們必須獲得石油桶的窗口，特別是考慮到隨著石油產量大幅增加而建設的困難，您為什麼不考慮或談論整合的潛力？資本支出必要嗎？

So, I just want to understand what's your think around buy versus build. Are you comfortable with the molecules that you have currently, particularly, let's say in a scenario or doubles or we are in a strong cycle. Are you back solving from that today?

所以，我只是想了解您對購買和建造的看法。您對目前擁有的分子感到滿意嗎，特別是在某種情況下或雙倍或我們處於強循環中。今天你解決這個問題了嗎？

Yes. Great. Thank you for those 2 questions, Christian, and for the recognition, both for Tjerk and so I'll take the second question first, and then I'm going to come to Sinead have a moment to think about the first one. I think on the oil business, a couple of things I'd say.

是的。偉大的。謝謝你提出這兩個問題，Christian，也謝謝你對 Tjerk 的認可，所以我先回答第二個問題，然後我會到 Sinead 來思考第一個問題。我想關於石油業務，我想說幾句話。

Firstly, over the next 6 years, we have guided, of course, to stable liquid production on the back of what we already have in the portfolio. So, that's our base case. The consolidation question, I think, is a good one, and we continue to look for opportunities to be able to, of course, bulk up as any good company should be doing. We have a couple of challenges here.

首先，在接下來的六年裡，我們當然會在我們已有的產品組合的基礎上實現穩定的液體生產。這就是我們的基本情況。我認為，整合問題是一個很好的問題，我們將繼續尋找機會，當然，能夠像任何優秀公司都應該做的那樣壯大。我們在這裡面臨一些挑戰。

One is, of course, our share price, we don't think is reflective of an opportunity to be buying somebody else and creating accretive returns for our shareholders. That, in my mind, is a must-do right? If we start to sort of run on the back of value-destructive deals, then we've lost the plot. So, we want to continue to be doing the right thing by our shareholders in that context.

當然，其中之一是我們的股價，我們認為這並不反映收購其他公司並為股東創造增值回報的機會。在我看來，這是必須要做的事情，對嗎？如果我們開始在破壞價值的交易的支持下逃跑，那麼我們就迷失了方向。因此，我們希望在這種情況下繼續為我們的股東做正確的事情。

The second point, of course, is that all the deals we're seeing out there at the moment, tailing comparison to actually buying back our shares against a double-digit free cash flow yield with a suite of portfolios, whether it's in deepwater, LNG, our trading business, our marketing business, which we know very well, which is much more derisked, which doesn't require as much of an integration effort and as much of a premium to be able to adjust, we can buy those at the discount today.

當然，第二點是，我們目前看到的所有交易，與透過一套投資組合以兩位數的自由現金流收益率實際回購我們的股票相比，無論是在深海，液化天然氣，我們的貿易業務，我們的行銷業務，我們非常了解，風險更低，不需要那麼多的整合工作和那麼多的溢價來進行調整，我們可以在今天的折扣。

And so, we will continue to do that. and we will continue to do that until we actually see that the share price has responded in a way and that we have the currency to do anything else. And that's why we said very clearly for this first sprint. It is all about getting the fundamentals right. And I'm sure Sinead will address the endpoint. But for my sense on it is the first print is nothing more than a milestone.

因此，我們將繼續這樣做。我們將繼續這樣做，直到我們真正看到股價以某種方式做出反應，並且我們有能力做其他事情。這就是為什麼我們對第一個衝刺說得非常清楚。這一切都是為了打好基礎。我確信 Sinead 會解決這個問題。但就我而言，第一張印刷品只不過是個里程碑。

There will be more that we need to continue to do well beyond that first print in terms of getting the business to its full potential. There is an enormous amount of latent potential, and that's what we're going to go after and unlock. Sinead?

為了讓業務充分發揮潛力，除了第一次印刷之外，我們還需要繼續做更多的事情。存在著巨大的潛在潛力，這就是我們要追求和釋放的潛力。西妮德？

Indeed. And thank you, Christyan. This is where you'll always get me excited about it because your comments, I can take it in 2 ways. So, the way I will refer to it is, of course, more than EUR 13 billion of CFFO despite approximately EUR 3 billion, just under GBP 3 billion of working capital is. So, you're right, $16 billion of cash flow is an awful up.

的確。謝謝你，克里斯蒂安。這就是你總是讓我興奮的地方，因為你的評論，我可以透過兩種方式接受。因此，我的說法當然是超過 130 億歐元的 CFFO，儘管營運資金約 30 億歐元，略低於 30 億英鎊。所以，你是對的，160 億美元的現金流是一個可怕的成長。

And indeed, every quarter, there is a lot of cash flow coming through from this business. And, of course, that's what gives us the confidence to be able to do the buybacks. And that's exactly what we're doing despite the volatility. You've heard me talk about it before, we actually welcome volatility in the sense that we have a strong balance sheet.

事實上，每個季度都有大量現金流來自這項業務。當然，這讓我們有信心能夠進行回購。儘管存在波動，這正是我們正在做的事情。你以前聽我說過，我們實際上歡迎波動，因為我們擁有強大的資產負債表。

We take the time to be able to delever from time to time. And we also, of course, manage to provide consistency. And that's the key point for investors in terms of the buyback. To remind you, since the Permian deal, including what we've announced now, we've done over EUR 40 billion worth of share buybacks. That's a huge proportion that has come through. And this is 10 quarters of $3 billion or more.

我們花時間去槓桿化。當然，我們也設法提供一致性。這是投資者回購的關鍵點。提醒您，自二疊紀交易以來，包括我們現在宣布的交易，我們已經進行了價值超過 400 億歐元的股票回購。這是已經實現的很大一部分。這是 10 個季度的 30 億美元或更多。

So, in terms of inconsistency or consistency, I would say absolutely not, you see that drumbeat time and time again, we are predictable in terms of what we do. And how can we do that? We do it because of the underlying cash flows of this business. You're right, it does change quarter-to-quarter, and that's why I look through the quarters to be able to provide that stability throughout.

因此，就不一致或一致性而言，我絕對不會說，你一次又一次地看到這種鼓聲，我們所做的事情是可以預測的。我們怎樣才能做到這一點？我們這樣做是因為這項業務的潛在現金流。你是對的，它確實每個季度都會發生變化，這就是為什麼我會仔細觀察各個季度，以便能夠在整個過程中提供這種穩定性。

That's why we've provided targets out there in the market in terms of the free cash flow and free cash flow per share. We have confidence in the levers of that. So, that's exactly what we're doing.

這就是為什麼我們在自由現金流和每股自由現金流方面提供了市場目標。我們對此充滿信心。所以，這正是我們正在做的事情。

Stability in terms of the CapEx discipline, OpEx time, buybacks through debt being able to be delivered as well, providing that overall investment case as well. So, my worry is, and what should I think in terms of free cash flow? What's key to me is to ensure that I have a balance sheet at a live meeting invest through the cycle, allows me to be able to continue to buy back shares, which at this price are, frankly, just undervalued.

資本支出紀律、營運支出時間、透過債務回購等方面的穩定性也能夠交付，從而也提供了整體投資案例。所以，我擔心的是，在自由現金流方面我該怎麼想？對我來說，關鍵是確保我在整個週期的現場投資會議上擁有資產負債表，使我能夠繼續回購股票，坦白說，以這個價格，這些股票的價值被低估了。

And I get excited about the fact that the share price today is not even representing the underlying value of the business today, let learn what we are going to do in terms of capital markets day delivery as well.

我感到興奮的是，今天的股價甚至不能代表今天業務的潛在價值，讓我們了解一下我們在資本市場日交割方面將要做什麼。

So, yes, all good on that. And you said when does Sprint finish. As you can see, I can get excited about this. The Sprint it will finish at the end of 2025. That's what we've said so far. Thank you.

所以，是的，一切都很好。你說Sprint什麼時候結束。正如你所看到的，我對此感到興奮。 Sprint 將於 2025 年底完成。謝謝。

Our next caller is Lucas Herrmann from BNP.

我們的下一個來電者是法國巴黎銀行的盧卡斯‧赫爾曼 (Lucas Herrmann)。

A couple, if I might. I just wanted to come back to chemicals and to try and it's I guess it's back to Paul's question around utilization. You've moved away from 60%. You're guiding towards 72% to 80%, and I'm presuming you're saying within that, the Monaca's running, if anything, it sounds above nameplate.

如果可以的話，一對。我只是想回到化學物質並嘗試一下，我想這又回到了保羅關於利用率的問題。你已經遠離 60%了。你正在指導 72% 到 80%，我猜你是在說 Monaca 正在運行，如果有的話，它聽起來在銘牌上方。

So, it's really trying to understand why the numbers remain as modest as they are. Is that a consequence of a very difficult margin environment, and you're actively deciding you're not going to run plant. Do you think that on the EUR 25 billion of capital that's invested in that business, how much of that capital do you think can earn a cost of capital return? How much of it not?

因此，它確實試圖理解為什麼這些數字仍然如此溫和。這是利潤環境非常困難的結果嗎？您認為在投資於該業務的 250 億歐元資本中，您認為其中有多少資本可以賺取資本回報成本？有多少不是？

And secondly, and Paul, sorry to stay on some of the businesses where I don't quite understand what they're delivering, sectors and decarbonization. If I look back that business used to deliver $600 million, $700 million of net income per annum. It's done GBP 20 million in the first quarter. Does it kind of become an area of experimentation and development and spend for the future and for the power and progress strategy?

其次，保羅，很抱歉繼續從事一些我不太了解他們正在提供什麼、部門和脫碳的業務。如果我回顧一下，該業務過去每年帶來 6 億至 7 億美元的淨利潤。第一季銷售額為 2000 萬英鎊。它是否會成為一個實驗和開發領域，並為未來以及權力和進步策略進行支出？

Or what kind of level of net income do you think we should realistically anticipate from that business in the near to medium term rather than a long?

或者您認為我們應該在中短期（而不是長期）實際預期該業務的淨利潤水平是多少？

Lucas, thank you for that and we will indeed keep eating away. Let me take the first one and then ask Sinead to address the second one. On chemicals, you'll recall, Lucas, of course, in June, we talked about chemicals and how we were positioning chemicals.

盧卡斯，謝謝你，我們確實會繼續吃下去。讓我先解決第一個問題，然後請西尼德解決第二個問題。關於化學品，你會記得，盧卡斯，當然，在六月，我們討論了化學品以及我們如何定位化學品。

We had some assets in the portfolio that were, if anything, actually destroying value, they are negative return on capital employed, others that were sort of coming out from a nonproductive phase of capital deployment into productive phase such as Shell Polymers Monaca and others that were somewhere in between like our European assets, and we had to sort of do some work on them.

我們投資組合中的一些資產實際上正在破壞價值，它們的資本回報率為負，其他資產則從資本部署的非生產階段進入生產階段，例如殼牌聚合物莫納卡和其他就像我們的歐洲資產一樣，我們必須對它們做一些工作。

I think it's fair to say that on all 3, we're making good progress at the moment, right? So, of the $25-plus billion of capital employed, we have already talked about the planned divestment of Bukom Jurong, which is the Singapore asset base. We have announced a couple of things on a few of the units in Europe. And then the other 50% of that capital employed sits in Shell Polymers Monaca.

我認為可以公平地說，我們目前在這三個方面都取得了良好的進展，對嗎？因此，在所使用的超過250億美元的資本中，我們已經討論了新加坡資產基礎Bukom Jurong的計畫撤資。我們已經宣布了有關歐洲一些單位的一些事情。所用資本的另外 50% 位於殼牌聚合物莫納卡公司 (Shell Polymers Monaca)。

There's a lot that we are doing in that space. We have talked about selling or high grading the portfolio by selling the assets that are underperforming. We have talked about other specific units that are underperforming, we will either shut them down or convert them.

我們在這個領域做了很多事。我們已經討論過透過出售表現不佳的資產來出售或高評級投資組合。我們已經討論過其他表現不佳的具體單位，我們將關閉它們或轉換它們。

We have recognized that our cost structure in that business needs to be addressed, and we've made some moves, including, for example, a few months ago where we trimmed down significantly the commercial staff base. We have shifted the interaction between our chemicals and products and our trading organization where there are some elements which we had duplication. We have now removed that duplication and consolidate it.

我們已經認識到我們在該業務中的成本結構需要解決，並且我們已經採取了一些舉措，例如，幾個月前我們大幅削減了商業人員數量。我們改變了化學物質和產品與貿易組織之間的互動，其中一些元素是重複的。我們現在已經刪除了重複內容並對其進行了合併。

So, we're doing all the things we can do to be able to bring this business to be the best it can be within the constraints that we continue to have. As we continue to step up on Shell Polymers Monaca, what you will see is continued improvement there, of course, as we look to go into the next grade of products and the next greater product, we will be locking windows with many of our customers that typically happens in the late third quarter, early fourth quarter.

因此，我們正在盡一切努力，使這項業務在我們繼續面臨的限制範圍內做到最好。隨著我們繼續加強殼牌聚合物莫納卡的開發，您將看到那裡的持續改進，當然，當我們尋求進入下一個級別的產品和下一個更偉大的產品時，我們將與許多客戶鎖定窗口這通常發生在第三季末、第四季初。

So, all of that is yet to come. But right now, we're maximizing value within the constraints we have. And I would say, to your point, margins continue to be very challenged, right? The indicator chemical margin for this quarter was 150, better than what it was in Q4, but that is still worthful compared to the historic trends.

所以，這一切都還沒到來。但現在，我們正在有限的範圍內實現價值最大化。我想說，就你的觀點而言，利潤率仍然面臨很大的挑戰，對吧？本季的指標化學利潤率為 150，好於第四季度，但與歷史趨勢相比仍然值得。

And so, we will do all we can within what we can control and position ourselves to have choices thereafter.

因此，我們將在我們能夠控制和定位的範圍內盡我們所能，以便之後做出選擇。

Yes. sectors in decarbonization, I'll keep it reasonably short, Lucas, because I think there's a number of parts from here. And you've got parts like Holland Hydrogen 1, you've got the HEFA plant in the Netherlands, both of which you're right. They're not generating any net income at the moment, but they will in the future. And, of course, you have to invest for and you know the investment case for on those.

是的。盧卡斯，我會保持相當簡短的內容，因為我認為這裡有很多部分。你有像 Holland Hydrogen 1 這樣的零件，你有荷蘭的 HEFA 工廠，這兩件事你都是對的。他們目前沒有產生任何淨收入，但將來會產生任何淨收入。當然，您必須進行投資，並且您知道這些投資的投資理由。

So, no need to talk about that. We also, of course, have had a difference between what would have been the voluntary market before in terms of the drop in, of course, of different fuels. You're right, that has come down in the recent times, but that obviously goes back and forth along the way.

所以，沒必要談這個。當然，我們在不同燃料的下降方面也與先前的自願市場有所不同。你是對的，這種情況最近有所下降，但顯然一路上來回變化。

The other part of it, of course, is that risen sits there as well. And rising, of course, in what we've seen in Brazil over the last couple of quarters is we've seen actually a lot of ethanol into the market. Now, I can either take that as being very worrying or actually ticket as being -- we know there will be a change because what Brazil will do as it typically does.

當然，它的另一部分是，上升也坐在那裡。當然，過去幾季我們在巴西看到的情況是，我們實際上看到大量乙醇進入市場。現在，我要么認為這是非常令人擔憂的，要么實際上是——我們知道將會發生變化，因為巴西將像往常一樣做事。

You have the flexibility, of course, for cars to run their dual fuel. They can flip between ethanol and normal fuel. They will change the requirements there, which is what they've done year-on-year, and that will require basically more ethanol input into which will increase the market as well.

當然，您可以靈活地讓汽車使用雙燃料。它們可以在乙醇和普通燃料之間切換。他們將改變那裡的要求，這是他們逐年所做的，這基本上需要更多的乙醇投入，這也將擴大市場。

So, you see that, but you're right, it's at a low price now. And beyond that, of course, there's things like aviation and marine in there. And, of course, what you typically see is that you'll see the ramp-up, particularly for aviation, coming towards the traveling season, it's pretty low at the moment. But to be fair, it has not come back since what we saw pre-Covert as well.

所以，你看到了，但你是對的，現在價格很低。當然，除此之外，還有航空和航海等領域。當然，你通常會看到，在旅行旺季來臨之際，你會看到成長，特別是航空業，但目前的成長速度相當低。但公平地說，自從我們在《隱密》之前看到的情況以來，它就沒有再出現過。

Beyond that, which I think is where you're going to as well, investments going forward, clearly, they'll be at the hurdle risk, and that's where we're very thoughtful. What we've seen is actually the EVP for that business actually looking at where she can step back from certain things and say, "Do I have a differentiating capability". So, we don't serve the mining sector for decarbonization in there anymore because that's not where we add a lot of value.

除此之外，我認為這也是你要去的地方，很明顯，未來的投資將面臨障礙風險，而這正是我們非常深思熟慮的地方。我們所看到的實際上是該業務的執行副總裁實際上在考慮她可以從某些事情中退一步並說：「我是否具有差異化能力」。因此，我們不再為採礦業提供脫碳服務，因為這不是我們增加大量價值的地方。

We don't make good margins. So I'll keep it there.

我們的利潤率並不高。所以我會把它留在那裡。

Sure. Thank you, Shane. Luke, I think we're close to time. Any more questions?

當然。謝謝你，謝恩。盧克，我想我們已經接近時間了。還有其他問題嗎？

Our final caller today is Christopher Kuplent from Bank of America.

今天我們的最後一位來電者是來自美國銀行的 Christopher Kuplent。

A quick one, maybe, Sinead, you can, of course, point to seasonality in CapEx. It's been a light quarter, but maybe you can talk to that seasonality versus real underlying efforts of spending less. I've noticed that spending levels have halved basically in mobility, for example. Maybe you can touch on a few points there.

西尼德（Sinead），您當然可以快速指出資本支出的季節性。這是一個清淡的季度，但也許你可以談談季節性與減少支出的真正潛在努力。例如，我注意到流動性方面的支出水準基本上減少了一半。也許你可以談談其中的幾點。

And maybe you referred to the AGM that's upcoming in your opening remarks. So, I'll leave it to you, while maybe to comment on how Shell is this time around, at least in the AGM season, made an example amongst the big oils and the shareholder resolution that you're up against.

也許您在開場白中提到了即將召開的年度股東大會。因此，我將把它留給您，同時也許可以評論一下殼牌這次（至少在年度股東大會期間）的表現，在您所面對的大型石油公司和股東決議中樹立了榜樣。

Can you maybe put that into context considering the conversation whether live or not about where your primary listing should be?

您能否將這一點放在上下文中，考慮一下關於您的主要清單應該在哪裡的對話，無論是實時的還是非實時的？

Excellent. Thank you very much, Christopher. Let me hand over to you, Sinead, for the first one.

出色的。非常感謝你，克里斯多福。讓我把第一個任務交給你，Sinead。

Yes, I'll keep it short to allow enough time for the second one. You're right. CapEx is low, absolutely this first quarter. It tends to be very lumpy there as well. I think it was Libya in Q3 last year. Actually, you called us on that and asked for a bit more. What we're seeing, of course, is just that capital discipline is kicking in. You're absolutely right. You see that in mobility, et cetera, but it is about timing as well.

是的，我會保持簡短，以便為第二次會議留出足夠的時間。你說得對。第一季的資本支出絕對很低。那裡也往往非常凹凸不平。我認為去年第三季是利比亞。事實上，您為此打電話給我們並要求更多。當然，我們看到的是資本紀律正在發揮作用。你可以在流動性等方面看到這一點，但這也與時機有關。

So, a lot of our payments tend to be a little bit lumpy. So, you see it at different times. So Q4, as you will have seen, was quite an uptick there as well. But that discipline lands is going through the whole organization. You'll see lumpiness, things like Wael, et cetera, different payments that still have to come through in the course of the year.

因此，我們的許多付款往往有點不穩定。所以，你會在不同的時間看到它。因此，正如您所看到的，第四季度也出現了相當大的成長。但這種紀律正在貫穿整個組織。你會看到混亂，諸如Wael之類的事情，以及在這一年中仍然需要完成的不同付款。

So, I'm not reducing the guidance at the moment, keeping it in terms of 22% to 25%.

因此，我目前不會降低指導值，將其保持在 22% 至 25%。

Thank you, Sinead. Then to your broader question, Christopher, thank you for the opportunity maybe to comment on the AGM on May 21. So a few things. I think One is, we go into this AGM with, I think, real momentum in the share price. One or a few of the comments that I received at the last AGM where many of the shareholders with a few shares, retail shareholders saying, "Hey, we've been holding your shares for a long, long time. We want to be able to see some uptick"

謝謝你，西妮德。然後回答你更廣泛的問題，Christopher，感謝你給我機會對 5 月 21 日的年度股東大會發表評論。我認為其中之一是，我們在參加本次年度股東大會時，股價出現了真正的動力。我在上屆年度股東大會上收到的一條或幾條評論中，許多持有少量股份的股東、散戶股東說：「嘿，我們已經持有你們的股份很長時間了。我們希望能夠看到一些上升”

And hopefully, we can stand proud and say, we have been able to continue to drive some of the valuation of the company while recognizing there is a lot more to go. And so, we will humbly submit that there's a lot more running room. We will also, of course, be putting forward our energy transition strategy for a vote, which hopefully, everyone will have seen the thoughtfulness that we put behind it, the broader understanding of the energy system.

希望我們能夠自豪地說，我們已經能夠繼續推動公司的部分估值，同時也意識到還有很多工作要做。因此，我們將謙虛地承認還有更多的運行空間。當然，我們也將提出我們的能源轉型策略進行投票，希望每個人都能看到我們背後的深思熟慮，以及對能源系統更廣泛的理解。

What I would say is a company that is truly leaning forward in the energy transition, but in a thoughtful and profitable way because ultimately, that transition is only going to materialize with scalable and profitable business models, which is what we are trying to unlock, and that will require us. It will require governments, it to require customers to step to the plate.

我想說的是，一家真正在能源轉型中向前邁進的公司，但以一種深思熟慮和有利可圖的方式，因為最終，這種轉型只會透過可擴展和有利可圖的商業模式來實現，這就是我們正在努力解鎖的，這需要我們。這將需要政府、要求客戶採取行動。

There is, of course, also the follow this resolution. I think to your implicit point around to make an example, I think there is a focus on Shell, which we welcome because at the end of the day, we have the opportunity to be able to, I think, tell a very compelling story. A story of how this company has invested or would be investing $10 billion to $15 billion between 2023 and 2025 and invested $5.6 billion in the low-carbon space last year.

當然，還有以下決議。我認為你隱含的觀點是舉個例子，我認為重點是殼牌，我們對此表示歡迎，因為最終，我認為我們有機會能夠講述一個非常引人注目的故事。講述該公司如何在 2023 年至 2025 年間投資或將投資 100 億至 150 億美元，並去年在低碳領域投資 56 億美元的故事。

A company that is investing in the largest green hydrogen facility in Europe and looking to create real value out of that when others have made promises but have not followed through. And so, it would be a real opportunity to tell our story. But importantly, as well, a reminder that the resolution, while period in its intent, fundamentally hits a few key points for us.

該公司正在投資歐洲最大的綠色氫設施，並希望在其他公司做出承諾但尚未兌現時從中創造真正的價值。因此，這將是一個講述我們故事的真正機會。但同樣重要的是，它提醒我們，該決議雖然其意圖有些時期，但從根本上擊中了我們的幾個關鍵點。

One is, it is bad governance. It looks at one specific metric without looking at the entire energy system, and this is where we would ask our shareholders to spend time just reading through the energy transition strategy and looking at how we are thinking about the broader positioning of the company.

一是治理不善。它著眼於一個特定指標，而不著眼於整個能源系統，這就是我們要求股東花時間閱讀能源轉型策略並了解我們如何思考公司更廣泛定位的地方。

We also think that, that resolution is going to be very bad for shareholders. We will be giving our businesses to others for the sake of it. It will be bad for our customers who are depending on us to actually support them in this transformation and in this transition, and it will not actually help the climate because all it will result in is us getting at the businesses that others would serve.

我們也認為，該決議對股東來說非常不利。我們將為此而將我們的業務交給其他人。這對我們的客戶來說是不利的，因為他們依賴我們在這場轉型和轉型中真正支持他們，而這實際上不會幫助氣候，因為它只會導致我們獲得其他人將服務的業務。

And so, for all those reasons, you've seen a unanimous support or unanimous advice from both the management team and the Board for the eighth year in a row to say, do not support that resolution and support management's resolution. And I hope that through the efforts and through the debate that is becoming much more qualified these days and a deeper understanding of how we need to keep the balance through the energy system, our shareholders will vote in the right way in support of management's recommendations.

因此，基於所有這些原因，您已經看到管理團隊和董事會連續第八年一致支持或一致建議說，不支持該決議並支持管理層的決議。我希望，透過努力，透過這些天變得更加合格的辯論，以及對我們需要如何透過能源系統保持平衡的更深入的了解，我們的股東將以正確的方式投票支持管理層的建議。

And I look forward to that very little in terms of how this all impacts listing. I think the ESG agenda when done in the right way, it should be done all over the world. So, that's not a Europe or U.K. specific thing. But hopefully, it's more the investors leaning in and being able to truly get much more detailed in the way we're thinking about our energy transition and not full pray to what is too simplistic and to some extent, a distractive resolution that has been tabled.

就這一切對上市的影響而言，我不太期待。我認為 ESG 議程如果以正確的方式實施，就應該在全世界實施。所以，這不是歐洲或英國特有的事。但希望投資人能夠更深入地了解我們對能源轉型的思考方式，而不是完全祈禱過於簡單化、在某種程度上已經提出的分散注意力的決議。

Let me leave it there, Christopher, thank you very much for that. And apologies for those who haven't been able to get their questions in. I'm sure your questions will be more than adequately addressed by our IR team.

讓我把它留在那裡，克里斯托弗，非常感謝你。對那些未能提出問題的人表示歉意。

Let me close off by saying thank you to all of you for the questions for joining the call. In conclusion, we have delivered yet another strong quarter. We announced another $3.5 billion of share buybacks, which makes this, as Sinead already said, 10 quarters in a row with buybacks of at least $3 billion.

最後，我要對大家提出的問題表示感謝。總之，我們又交付了一個強勁的季度。我們又宣布了 35 億美元的股票回購，正如 Sinead 所說，這使得我們連續 10 個季度回購至少 30 億美元。

I think we are building now a track record of consistency and are progressing well in our first sprint to deliver more value with less emissions and continue to aim to be the investment case through the energy transition. We wish all of you very well and have a pleasant end of the week. Thank you all.

我認為我們現在正在建立一致性的記錄，並且在我們的第一個衝刺中進展順利，以更少的排放提供更多的價值，並繼續致力於成為能源轉型的投資案例。我們祝福大家一切順利，週末愉快。謝謝你們。