殼牌 (SHEL) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Shell's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Financial Results Announcement. Shell's CEO, Wael Sawan; and CFO, Sinead Gorman will present the results, then host a Q&A session. (Operator Instructions). We will now begin the presentation.

歡迎閱讀殼牌 2023 年第四季和全年財務表現公告。殼牌首席執行官 Wael Sawan；財務長 Sinead Gorman 將介紹結果，然後主持問答環節。 （操作員說明）。我們現在開始演示。

Welcome, everyone. Today, Sinead and I will present to you the 2023 Fourth quarter and Full year results. We had another year of very strong performance, delivering the second highest cash flow from operations in Shell's history despite the external uncertainty and volatility.

歡迎大家。今天，Sinead 和我將向您介紹 2023 年第四季和全年業績。儘管存在外部不確定性和波動性，但我們又取得了非常強勁的業績，實現了殼牌歷史上第二高的營運現金流。

Starting with safety, which remains our top priority. Our personal safety results last year were slightly lower than in 2022, and our teams are determined to make sure 2024 is a year of improvement. I am, however, really pleased that our process safety results set a new record for Shell, confirming our top-tier performance in the industry.

從安全開始，這仍然是我們的首要任務。我們去年的人身安全結果略低於 2022 年，我們的團隊決心確保 2024 年是進步的一年。然而，我真的很高興我們的製程安全結果為殼牌創造了新記錄，證實了我們在業界的頂級表現。

We are also making good progress across the targets outlined at our Capital Markets Day and expect more to come as we progress through 2024 and beyond. In 2023, we demonstrated our strong commitment to capital discipline by delivering at the lower end of our $23 billion to $27 billion range. In addition, we have already achieved $1 billion in structural cost reductions, well on our way to a reduction of $2 billion to $3 billion by the end of 2025. This reduction is a first step, this is not a one-off change program. We are building the capability to continuously adapt to changes through the energy transition. The reductions will be staggered. The most significant contribution in the short term comes from focusing on where we play, which are essentially portfolio choices. And at the same time, we are emphasizing a bottom-up focus to create a leaner, more agile organization that delivers more value.

我們在資本市場日概述的目標方面也取得了良好進展，並預計隨著 2024 年及以後的進展，我們將取得更多進展。 2023 年，我們透過在 230 億至 270 億美元範圍的下限交付資金，展現了我們對資本紀律的堅定承諾。此外，我們已經實現了 10 億美元的結構性成本削減，並預計在 2025 年底前削減 20 億至 30 億美元。這項削減只是第一步，不是一次性的變革計畫。我們正在建立透過能源轉型不斷適應變化的能力。削減將分階段進行。短期內最重要的貢獻來自於關注我們的投資方向，這本質上是投資組合的選擇。同時，我們強調自下而上的重點，以創造一個更精簡、更敏捷的組織，以提供更多價值。

We are also leveraging new technologies such as artificial intelligence to improve the performance of our assets. We have millions of sensors collecting over 5 trillion rows of data that our AI models, combined with our conventional models use to monitor equipment 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, alerting engineers to anomalies from a distance. This enables us to intervene and fix issues early, improving our performance, and we continue to high-grade our portfolio and position the company for growth into the future.

我們也利用人工智慧等新技術來提高資產的效能。我們擁有數百萬個感測器，收集超過 5 兆行數據，我們的 AI 模型與傳統模型相結合，用於每週 7 天、每天 24 小時監控設備，從遠處向工程師發出異常警報。這使我們能夠及早介入和解決問題，提高我們的績效，並且我們繼續對我們的投資組合進行高評級，並為公司未來的成長做好準備。

This past month, we agreed to sell our Nigerian onshore subsidiary, SPDC, subject to government approvals and other conditions. This is an important step for the company, and we hope to complete the deal as soon as is possible.

上個月，我們同意出售我們的尼日利亞境內子公司 SPDC，但須獲得政府批准並滿足其他條件。這對公司來說是重要的一步，我們希望盡快完成交易。

In 2023, we saw production growth with the startup of a number of key new projects in our advantaged Upstream business. The projects which came on stream this past year at their peak, will add over 200,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day. They are part of our larger funnel set for start-up by 2025. Together at their peak, all projects will add more than 0.5 million barrels of oil equivalent a day to our production. And they will enable us to continue providing the energy security that the world needs while delivering cash flow longevity into the future.

2023年，我們優勢上游業務一批重點新項目啟動，產量成長。這些項目在去年高峰期投產，每天將增加超過20萬桶石油當量。它們是我們計劃於 2025 年啟動的更大漏斗的一部分。在高峰期，所有項目加起來將為我們每天增加超過 50 萬桶石油當量。它們將使我們能夠繼續提供世界所需的能源安全，同時延長未來的現金流。

We also continue to invest to help enable the energy transition in areas where we can create value. Last year, we invested $5.6 billion in low carbon energy, such as our Nature Energy acquisition and the CrossWind JV, which will supply renewable power to Holland Hydrogen I, Europe's largest electrolyzer. In short, we're working hard to deliver the energy the world needs today and we're helping to build the energy system of the future.

我們也持續投資，幫助我們能夠創造價值的領域實現能源轉型。去年，我們在低碳能源領域投資了 56 億美元，例如收購 Nature Energy 和成立 CrossWind 合資企業，後者將為歐洲最大的電解槽 Holland Hydrogen I 提供再生電力。簡而言之，我們正在努力提供當今世界所需的能源，並幫助建立未來的能源系統。

Our relentless focus on performance, discipline and simplification allowed us to deliver compelling returns and create more value for our shareholders in 2023. Our shareholder distributions for the year were over 42% of our CFFO. And today, we increased our dividend by another 4%, taking our total increase over the last 12 months to around 20%. We continue to progress towards our destination of a net zero emissions business. Our preliminary results show that we have further reduced our Scope 1 and 2 emissions in 2023. We are only halfway through the time line to our 2030 target, yet we have already achieved more than 60% of the reductions needed to reach the target. With that, let's go to Sinead for more financial results.

我們對績效、紀律和簡化的不懈關注使我們能夠在 2023 年實現令人矚目的回報並為股東創造更多價值。我們當年的股東分配超過 CFFO 的 42%。今天，我們的股息又增加了 4%，使過去 12 個月的總股息成長達到 20% 左右。我們繼續朝著淨零排放業務的目標前進。我們的初步結果顯示，我們在 2023 年進一步減少了範圍 1 和範圍 2 的排放。我們距離 2030 年目標的時間進度僅過半，但我們已經實現了實現目標所需減排量的 60% 以上。接下來，讓我們去西尼德了解更多財務表現。

Thank you, Wael. We delivered strong results in Q4, driven by our strong trading and optimization in LNG and robust operational performance. One of this quarter's highlights came from QGC Australia. This quarter, they had their highest ever LNG production, which helped deliver Cargo #1000 since startup.

謝謝你，韋爾。在我們強勁的液化天然氣交易和優化以及強勁的營運業績的推動下，我們在第四季度取得了強勁的業績。本季度的亮點之一來自澳洲 QGC。本季度，他們實現了有史以來最高的液化天然氣產量，這有助於交付自啟動以來的 Cargo #1000。

Moving to our financial results. Our adjusted earnings were $7.3 billion for the quarter, and $28.3 billion for the full year. In the fourth quarter, we saw $4 billion in post-tax impairments driven by macro outlook and portfolio choices in line with what we announced at Capital Markets Day. We generated $12.6 billion of cash flow from operations, contributing to a total of $54.2 billion for the full year 2023, our second best year ever. Our strong performance allowed us to return $23 billion to our shareholders, delivering in excess of 30% to 40% CFFO range. And today, we have announced a new $3.5 billion share buyback program, which we expect to complete by the time of our Q1 results announcement in May.

轉向我們的財務表現。我們調整後的季度收益為 73 億美元，全年收益為 283 億美元。根據我們在資本市場日宣布的情況，第四季度，宏觀前景和投資組合選擇推動了 40 億美元的稅後減損。我們從營運中產生了 126 億美元的現金流，為 2023 年全年貢獻了 542 億美元的現金流，這是我們有史以來第二好的一年。我們強勁的業績使我們能夠向股東返還 230 億美元，CFFO 範圍超過 30% 至 40%。今天，我們宣布了一項新的 35 億美元股票回購計劃，預計在 5 月公佈第一季業績時完成。

We have also announced a dividend increase of 4%, in line with our progressive dividend policy. Our balance sheet remains strong with net debt reducing by $1.3 billion year-on-year. And looking forward in 2024, we will continue to target shareholder distributions of 30% to 40% of our cash flow from operations through the cycle, while maintaining our focus on delivering more value with less emissions. Now I will hand back to Wael for more on what's coming next.

我們也宣布將股利增加 4%，符合我們的累進股利政策。我們的資產負債表依然強勁，淨債務年減 13 億美元。展望 2024 年，我們將繼續以整個週期營運現金流的 30% 至 40% 為股東分配目標，同時繼續專注於以更少的排放創造更多價值。現在我將把接下來的事情交還給韋爾，以了解更多資訊。

Thank you, Sinead. So this was another year of strong results for Shell, marked by one of our highest ever annual adjusted earnings and cash flow from operations. We achieved this and much more despite volatility in the energy markets. In 2024, we will focus on delivery of our first sprint through performance, discipline and simplification, building on what we have achieved in 2023. By focusing on areas where we have differentiated capabilities and core competencies, we aim to be the investment case through the energy transition.

謝謝你，西妮德。因此，今年是殼牌取得強勁業績的另一年，其年度調整後獲利和營運現金流創下了歷史最高水準。儘管能源市場波動，我們還是實現了這個目標以及更多目標。 2024 年，我們將在2023 年取得的成就的基礎上，透過績效、紀律和簡化，重點實現我們的第一次衝刺。透過專注於我們擁有差異化能力和核心競爭力的領域，我們的目標是透過以下方式成為投資案例：能源轉型。

In the coming weeks, we hope you can join us for our LNG outlook and our annual ESG event, which will also cover the energy transition strategy 2024 publication. Thank you.

在接下來的幾週內，我們希望您能夠加入我們的液化天然氣展望和年度 ESG 活動，其中還將涵蓋 2024 年能源轉型策略出版物。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Thank you for joining us today. We hope that after watching this presentation, you've seen how we delivered strong results and how we continue to focus on our guiding principles. Today, Sinead and I will be answering your questions. And now please, could we have just one or two questions each so that everyone has the opportunity. And with that, can we have the first question, please, Luke?

感謝您今天加入我們。我們希望在觀看本次演示後，您能夠了解我們如何取得出色的成果以及我們如何繼續專注於我們的指導原則。今天，我和西尼德將回答大家的問題。現在請我們每個人只問一兩個問題，以便每個人都有機會。那麼，我們可以問第一個問題嗎，盧克？

Our first caller is Michele Della Vigna from Goldman Sachs.

我們的第一位來電者是來自高盛的 Michele Della Vigna。

I wanted to ask two questions, if I may. The first one, is about your lineup of new projects. You've got one of the strongest pipelines in the industry in Brazil, Gulf of Mexico, LNG Canada, but also with the full restart of Monaca and Prelude. I was wondering if there is a way to guide us on what you think could be the incremental cash flow from these assets by the time they fully ramp up, let's say, by 2025, 2026?

如果可以的話，我想問兩個問題。第一個是關於您的新專案陣容。巴西、墨西哥灣、加拿大液化天然氣公司擁有業內最強大的管道之一，而且 Monaca 和 Prelude 也已全面重啟。我想知道是否有一種方法可以引導我們了解您認為這些資產完全增加時（比如說到 2025 年、2026 年）可能產生的增量現金流？

And then my second question is related to the European and the global gas market. We're mostly focused on price upside in the last few years and how to capture it, and Shell has certainly built a very good portfolio for it. But what I was wondering is, in an environment where, especially for the second half of this decade, we could see an oversupplied LNG market that challenges, it beats the arbitrage between the two sides of the Atlantic. Does that change of contracting strategy and how well set up is Shell to effectively successfully navigate what could be a tougher gas market for the coming years?

我的第二個問題與歐洲和全球天然氣市場有關。我們主要關注過去幾年的價格上漲以及如何抓住它，殼牌無疑為此建立了非常好的投資組合。但我想知道的是，在這樣的環境下，特別是在這個十年的後半段，我們可能會看到供應過剩的液化天然氣市場帶來挑戰，它擊敗了大西洋兩岸之間的套利。承包策略的這種變化以及殼牌的設置是否足以有效地成功駕馭未來幾年可能更加嚴峻的天然氣市場？

I'll start by asking Sinead to address the first one, and I can take the second one.

我先請西尼德解決第一個問題，然後我可以解決第二個問題。

Sure. No, thank you, Michele. And indeed, thank you for the recognition of what is an incredibly strong funnel. Going forward, you listed many of the different projects. So as you say, Gulf of Mexico, LNG Canada, Monaca up and running, Prelude, but let's not forget, as you go past 2025, we have up until '25. We said greater than 500 KBU a day in terms of new projects coming in. And let's remember that we had more than 200 KBU day at the peak, as well mentioned earlier and coming through as well. But beyond that as well, we also have things like Crux coming in, we will have the Qatari volumes, et cetera, coming in. So there's a great wealth coming through.

當然。不，謝謝你，米歇爾。事實上，感謝您對這個極其強大的漏斗的認可。接下來，您列出了許多不同的項目。正如你所說，墨西哥灣、加拿大液化天然氣公司、莫納卡已啟動並運行，序幕，但我們不要忘記，當你過去 2025 年時，我們還有 25 年的時間。我們說過，就新專案進來而言，每天超過 500 KBU。讓我們記住，我們在高峰期每天有超過 200 KBU，正如前面提到的，並且也正在完成。但除此之外，我們還有像 Crux 這樣的東西進來，我們將有卡達的捲等等進來。所以會有巨大的財富進來。

Rather than guide to some specific CFFO dependent on price, et cetera, what I suggest as we look at, you saw our promise of 6% growth on free cash flow through and decades of that's sort of number to look at, and you can see we're easily meeting that in terms of our promises so far. And remember, in terms of Sprint 1, very much we're talking about a 10% growth per share. So you can see, of course, that's been easily met at the moment when we're doing things like 6.5% of the company being bought back last year in 2023. So great momentum going forward, Michele, and you're absolutely right. We have a wealth of projects to be delivered.

我建議您不要根據價格等來指導某些特定的 CFFO，而是看到我們對自由現金流增長 6% 的承諾，以及幾十年來這個數字值得關注，您可以看到到目前為止，我們很容易兌現我們的承諾。請記住，就 Sprint 1 而言，我們談論的主要是每股成長 10%。所以你可以看到，當然，當我們去年在 2023 年回購 6.5% 的公司股份時，這個目標很容易實現。米歇爾，未來的勢頭如此強勁，你是絕對正確的。我們有大量的項目需要交付。

Thanks, Sinead. And Michele, to your second point, I think if I start just by reemphasizing our conviction in the growing demand for LNG going into the future, I think, underpinned both by call it, energy security considerations in a place like Europe, but also in Asia, continuing to see very strong demand as well as to replace the declining domestic gas in several countries in Vietnam, for example, the Philippines and others have become recently importers of LNG as well. So there's quite a lot of latent demand. And I think what you will find is that as the price, as is happening at the moment, starts to stabilize again and the market fundamentals reassert themselves, you will see a lot of that latent demand starting to come back to the market. So I think that in the first instance, just gives a lot of confidence around the demand profile going forward.

謝謝，西妮德。米歇爾，關於你的第二點，我認為，如果我首先再次強調我們對未來液化天然氣需求不斷增長的信念，我認為，這既是歐洲等地能源安全考慮的基礎，也是亞洲的需求繼續強勁，並取代了越南等幾個國家不斷下降的國內天然氣，菲律賓和其他國家最近也成為液化天然氣進口國。所以潛在需求還是相當多的。我認為你會發現，隨著價格（正如目前正在發生的那樣）開始再次穩定並且市場基本面重新確立，你會看到很多潛在需求開始回到市場。所以我認為，首先，這讓人們對未來的需求狀況充滿信心。

On the supply side, for the next year or so, there's very little in terms of new capacity coming in. But indeed, you see that stepping up both on the American and the Qatari side predominantly into the second half of the decade. As Shell, as you know very well, Michele of course, we play across the commodity exposures. And so for us, it's the ability to be able to pick up from Henry Hub and to be able to be exposed to Brent or indeed across TTF and JKM and others. And so it is no bad thing to have a period of time with more supply coming into the market because it allows us to contract on the side of offtake agreements, which we have done in the past. And so we're not looking to bet on one period or the next. What we are looking to do is to continue to build an advantaged portfolio that allows us to take advantage of those cross commodity exposures. And that has been the power of this LNG business for us and will continue to be.

在供應方面，未來一年左右的時間裡，新增產能非常少。但事實上，美國和卡達的產能成長主要是在本世紀後半段。當然，正如您所熟知的那樣，作為殼牌，米歇爾，我們涉足大宗商品風險敞口。因此，對我們來說，我們能夠從 Henry Hub 獲取原油，並能夠接觸到布蘭特原油，甚至 TTF 和 JKM 等其他原油。因此，一段時間內有更多供應進入市場並不是壞事，因為它允許我們在承購協議方面簽訂合同，就像我們過去所做的那樣。因此，我們不打算對一個時期或下一個時期進行投注。我們希望做的是繼續建立一個優勢投資組合，使我們能夠利用這些交叉商品風險敞口。這一直是我們液化天然氣業務的動力，並將繼續如此。

Thank you for the questions. Luke, if I can go to the next question, please.

謝謝你的提問。盧克，請讓我進入下一個問題。

Our next caller is Biraj Borkhataria from RBC.

我們的下一個來電者是來自 RBC 的 Biraj Borkhataria。

The first one is on the dividend. And I guess you've raised your dividend 2x in 2Q and then 4Q. I'm trying to understand what the cycle is from here going forward. I guess, if I think about the two reasons you'd raised the dividend, one is the underlying growth in the business and then there's a share count reduction from the buyback. So should we assume you do it once a year and combine both into one going forward? And the reason I ask is because typically predictability is quite important there.

第一個是關於股息。我猜你在第二季和第四季將股息提高了兩倍。我試圖了解從這裡開始的循環是什麼。我想，如果我考慮一下你提高股利的兩個原因，一是業務的潛在成長，二是回購導致股票數量減少。那麼我們是否應該假設您每年進行一次並將兩者合併為一個？我之所以問這個問題，是因為可預測性通常非常重要。

And then the second question is just on the Venture Global issues. This has been ongoing for a few months now. We don't really have clarity on the sort of process or the timing and so on. So obviously, seen the letters flying around between the various parties and indeed, anyone who's looked at the export data can see that the project has been actually much more reliable than other projects. And if you think about the [arbs] between U.S. and Europe on the [Gazprom] over the last 2 years, you could be talking about multibillions in lost earnings for Shell. So it seems like a strong stance that you have. I understand this is a legal process, but can you talk about what happens from here process-wise and then the potential outcomes thereafter?

第二個問題是關於 Venture Global 的問題。這種情況已經持續了幾個月了。我們並不清楚流程的種類或時間安排等。顯然，看到各方之間飛來飛去的信件，事實上，任何查看過出口數據的人都可以看到該項目實際上比其他項目可靠得多。如果你想想過去兩年美國和歐洲之間關於俄羅斯天然氣工業股份公司的[套利]，你可能會談論殼牌數十億美元的收入損失。所以你的立場看起來很強硬。我知道這是一個法律程序，但您能談談從這裡開始發生的流程以及此後的潛在結果嗎？

Great. Thank you for the questions, Biraj. Let me start with the second one and then go to Sinead on the dividend. I think you characterized the issue well. I mean as far as I see at the moment in terms of what is publicly available, Venture Global have, I think, sold around 250 cargo, so far, 250 commissioning cargoes. And what we see is that the plant is at or near capacity and has been consistently. So we're very much focused on continuing to enforce our legal rights and protect the sanctity of contracts that are there.

偉大的。謝謝你的提問，比拉吉。讓我從第二個開始，然後談談股息。我認為你很好地描述了這個問題。我的意思是，就我目前所看到的公開情況而言，我認為 Venture Global 已售出約 250 批貨物，到目前為止，已售出 250 批調試貨物。我們看到的是，該工廠已達到或接近產能，並且一直保持穩定。因此，我們非常注重繼續執行我們的合法權利並保護現有合約的神聖性。

I won't get into the details of the legal proceedings. Suffice it to say that we have pulled on the lever of arbitration that exists for us and continue to have the required discussions to be able to fundamentally point out that this is not just an issue between two counterparts. Actually, it's many counterparts, all of whom are not receiving the offtake commitments that Venture Global had committed to. But also it starts to undermine the confidence in U.S. LNG for the longer term, something which, of course, with the recent announcement of the pause by the government, by the U.S. administration, just continue all to erode that confidence in the longer-term potential of U.S. LNG, which is a real shame, I think, given the potential it has. Let me pause there and maybe ask Sinead to cover the dividends.

我不會詳細介紹法律程序。我只想說，我們已經利用了現有的仲裁槓桿，並繼續進行必要的討論，以便能夠從根本上指出這不僅僅是兩個對手之間的問題。事實上，有很多同業都沒有收到 Venture Global 所承諾的承購承諾。但它也開始削弱人們對美國液化天然氣的長期信心，當然，隨著美國政府最近宣布暫停，這將繼續削弱人們對長期液化天然氣的信心。考慮到美國液化天然氣的潛力，我認為這確實是一種恥辱。讓我暫停一下，或許可以請西尼德支付股息。

Indeed. Thank you, Biraj. And indeed, we're very much focused on ensuring we have a compelling distribution to our shareholders. And actually, you saw, of course, in 2023, some [$23 billion] of distributions back. But you raised the point that we did [2] and actually increased our dividend by approximately 20% last year, what you've seen this quarter is 4%. And of course, many of you asked during Capital Markets Day last year, would we do something further? Would we do a bigger hike at this time of year? And we were very clear, no. We were very clear, we will say what -- we will do what we will say. And in effect, what we told you that time was 4% progressive and that we'd be very much focused on buybacks. And that's pure and simple just a preference towards buybacks, as you know, because of the value lens just given where they are in terms of price, number one. And secondly, of course, we've set the targets out there to say it is creating per share value. So that's where we're focused as well. So that should help with predictability. And if you look at the buyback range, it's been pretty predictable over the last couple of quarters. So what you should expect from us is if we're going to say something, we will do it thereafter. So I hope that helps.

的確。謝謝你，比拉傑。事實上，我們非常注重確保我們向股東提供令人信服的分配。當然，實際上，您會在 2023 年看到大約 [230 億美元] 的分配回來了。但您提出了我們所做的[2]，去年我們的股息實際上增加了約 20%，您在本季度看到的是 4%。當然，很多人在去年的資本市場日期間問，我們會採取進一步的措施嗎？每年的這個時候我們會進行更大幅度的升息嗎？我們非常清楚，不。我們非常清楚，我們會說什麼——我們會做什麼。實際上，我們告訴你的時間是 4% 的累進，我們將非常關注回購。如您所知，這純粹是對回購的偏好，因為價值鏡頭剛剛在價格方面給出了第一。其次，當然，我們設定的目標是創造每股價值。這也是我們關注的重點。所以這應該有助於提高可預測性。如果你看看回購範圍，你會發現過去幾季的回購範圍是相當可預測的。因此，您應該對我們抱有的期望是，如果我們要說些什麼，我們會在之後做到。所以我希望這會有所幫助。

Thanks, Sinead. And thank you for the questions, Biraj. If we can go to the next question, please, Luke.

謝謝，西妮德。謝謝你的提問，Biraj。盧克，請讓我們進入下一個問題。

Our next caller is Oswald Clint from Bernstein.

我們的下一個來電者是來自伯恩斯坦的奧斯瓦爾德·克林特。

Yes, the first one, just on the slides, some good slides there on progress relative to last year's targets on the free cash flow growth. You have the 6% up to 2013 to 10%. You've priced normalized those, which is helpful, but I think you've removed the numbers from the y-axis. We're playing around with it, and it looks like over $25 billion price normalized last year, which I guess is the target for next year. So the question is, are you surprised by this free cash flow delivery? Was an expectation that might be front-end loaded? Certainly feels like the 2025 target is well underpinned at this stage.

是的，第一個，就在幻燈片上，其中一些不錯的幻燈片顯示了相對於去年自由現金流成長目標的進展。到 2013 年，你的比例是 6% 到 10%。您已經對這些進行了標準化定價，這很有幫助，但我認為您已經從 y 軸上刪除了這些數字。我們正在研究這個問題，看起來去年的價格正常化超過 250 億美元，我想這是明年的目標。那麼問題來了，你對這種自由現金流交付感到驚訝嗎？是否有可能被前端加載的期望？當然，2025 年的目標在現階段已經得到了充分的支持。

And then secondly, just on Integrated Gas and LNG, again, probably more 2024 focus, if I could. I mean, the East West spread could be a bit tighter this year. But now we have the Red Sea logistical risks just on top of this. So could I just get your outlook around business expectations in IG this year, especially with rerouting transportation OpEx or does your portfolio size help mitigate against this? Can you pass on some of these costs? Just how should investors think about this particular issue?

其次，如果可以的話，再次關注綜合天然氣和液化天然氣，可能會更重視 2024 年。我的意思是，今年東西部價差可能會比較窄。但現在除此之外我們還面臨紅海後勤風險。那麼，我能否了解一下您對 IG 今年業務預期的展望，特別是在重新安排運輸營運支出方面，或者您的投資組合規模是否有助於緩解這一問題？你能轉嫁其中一些成本嗎？投資人該如何思考這個特殊問題？

Do you want to take the first one? I can take the second one.

你想拿第一個嗎？我可以拿第二個。

Yes. No, indeed. And thanks, Oswald. Yes, you're right. We did actually remove the numbers very much conscious of doing so. Largely, you're right, we're exceeding where we expect it to be at this point. There's a lot of noise in there. As you can imagine, it's the typical normalization that one needs to do for working capital, et cetera. But yes, true delivery in there is mostly from a range of things. It's, of course, the CapEx reductions that have come through, it's some OpEx coming through and of course, share count reduction. But let's not forget some of the growth that's actually coming through as well.

是的。不，確實如此。謝謝，奧斯瓦爾德。你是對的。我們確實非常有意識地刪除了這些數字。很大程度上，你是對的，我們目前已經超出了我們的預期。裡面有很多噪音。正如您可以想像的那樣，這是營運資金等需要進行的典型標準化。但是，是的，真正的交付主要來自於一系列的事情。當然，這是資本支出的減少，一些營運支出的減少，當然還有股份數量的減少。但我們也不要忘記實際上正在發生的一些成長。

You saw us bring new volumes on this year as well, the Timi, the Vitos of this world, of course, Pierce redevelopment coming. And you can see that future build as well with the FIDs of Perdido 2, [Victory] coming through, just a range of them are coming Sparta as well. So indeed, do I have confidence in terms of delivery? Yes, at the moment and looking forward to driving it even further in terms of the things that we can control in terms of taking out OpEx, et cetera, as we continue to deliver what we promised.

你看到我們今年也帶來了新的捲，蒂米，這個世界的維托斯，當然，皮爾斯重建即將到來。你可以看到未來的構建以及 Perdido 2 的 FID，[勝利] 即將到來，其中的一系列也即將到來。那麼確實，我對交付有信心嗎？是的，目前，隨著我們繼續兌現我們的承諾，我們期待在我們可以控制的營運支出等方面進一步推動這一進程。

I think on your second or your first -- sorry, second question there, Oswald, just where the LNG markets are, in particular, in the context of the Red Se?, By and large, we are not seeing massive amounts of disruption yet to LNG flows because of the reality that in particular with a portfolio like ours that's blessed with supply points on either side of the Red Sea as well as on demand points, we are able to optimize and do swaps across the portfolio, which, of course, has always been our strength. We can truly through our trading and optimization organization create value from discontinuities. But maybe I won't project into the rest of the year. I think suffice it to say that Q4 was a very, very strong quarter for us on trading and optimization in the LNG space, particularly because of the opening up of the [arbs] across East West as well as the fact that, as you know, we typically have length this season, in the northern hemisphere season.

我想關於你的第二個或你的第一個- 抱歉，第二個問題，奧斯瓦爾德，液化天然氣市場在哪裡，特別是在紅硒的背景下？總的來說，我們還沒有看到大規模的破壞液化天然氣流量，因為現實是，特別是像我們這樣的投資組合，在紅海兩側都有供應點以及需求點，我們能夠優化並跨投資組合進行互換，當然， ，一直是我們的強項。我們可以真正透過我們的交易和優化組織從不連續性中創造價值。但也許我不會預測今年剩下的時間。我認為只需說第四季度對我們來說在液化天然氣領域的交易和優化方面是一個非常非常強勁的季度，特別是因為東西方的[套利]的開放以及事實，如你所知，在北半球季節，這個季節通常會有長度。

Now those arbs have compressed since the start of the year. The absolute prices of gas are lower at the moment. And so the question will be how much more volatility we will see, whether triggered by geopolitical considerations, higher-than-predicted demand in China, all of that will be an important determinant of where the LNG and the IG business particularly performs. But I think it's always fair to say we have good production at the moment. We're pleased with where Prelude is at after the turnaround. We're pleased with the progress we're making in Trinidad and Tobago, pleased with the progress we're making in Nigeria and so the fundamentals around the focus on performance, discipline and simplification are coming through. And now we'll need to see where the market goes to allow us to create the value we would hope to create from that market.

現在，自今年年初以來，這些套利空間已經壓縮。目前天然氣的絕對價格較低。因此，問題是我們將會看到多少波動，無論是由地緣政治考量還是中國高於預期的需求引發，所有這些都將成為液化天然氣和IG業務具體表現的重要決定因素。但我認為，公平地說我們目前擁有良好的生產能力。我們對 Prelude 在轉型後的表現感到滿意。我們對特立尼達和多巴哥的進展感到高興，對尼日利亞的進展感到高興，因此圍繞著績效、紀律和簡化的基本原則正在落實。現在我們需要了解市場走向，以便我們能夠創造我們希望從該市場創造的價值。

Thank you for the questions. If we can go to the next question please, Luke.

謝謝你的提問。路克，我們可以進入下一個問題嗎？

Our next caller is Alastair Syme from Citi.

我們的下一個來電者是花旗銀行的阿拉斯泰爾·賽姆 (Alastair Syme)。

Well, Sinead, you've spend in the res -- steps up quite considerably in '24. I mean it's certainly in line with what you said at the June CMD. I know you've got some strict returns criteria in this business. So the question is really as you scale up the spend, how you're finding the headroom versus those hurdle rates and certainly doesn't feel to me as if it's getting less competitive, but maybe you've got a different perspective.

好吧，Sinead，你在資源方面的投入在 24 年有了相當大的提升。我的意思是，這肯定與您在 6 月 CMD 上所說的一致。我知道你們在這個行業有一些嚴格的退貨標準。因此，問題實際上是，當你擴大支出時，你如何找到與這些最低門檻相比的淨空空間，當然我並不覺得競爭變得不那麼激烈，但也許你有不同的觀點。

And then secondly, look, I won't disappoint you Wael, congratulations on turning the corner on reserves in the last two years. I know Qatar has been a big part of that, perhaps as much as half. And while the financial terms there look pretty good, it is also, to some extent, an unusual almost one-off situation. So my question to you is how do you think about the underlying picture? And how would you think about the GAAP analysis sort of over the next 5 years, presuming you don't get another opportunity like Qatar?

其次，我不會讓你失望的，瓦爾，祝賀你在過去兩年裡扭轉了儲備的局面。我知道卡達是其中的重要組成部分，也許有一半之多。雖然那裡的財務條件看起來相當不錯，但在某種程度上，這也是一種不尋常的幾乎一次性的情況。所以我問你的問題是你如何看待潛在的情況？假設您不會再獲得像卡達這樣的機會，您會如何看待未來 5 年的 GAAP 分析？

Thank you, Alastair. Did you want to take the first one?

謝謝你，阿拉斯泰爾。你想拿第一個嗎？

Sure. In terms of res, I think it's a great question, Alastair. We've all seen many, many discussions in a variety of media and otherwise around the returns that are available in this space. I think what I'd say is we're being very disciplined around it. So what you're seeing is between 2023 and 2022, you will have seen effectively that our CapEx did go down in terms of res spend, but it was varied. So remember, it differs depending on which region you're talking about specifically. So we can't make it a binary conversation.

當然。就資源而言，我認為這是一個很好的問題，阿拉斯泰爾。我們都在各種媒體上看到很多很多關於這個領域的回報的討論。我想我想說的是我們對此非常自律。因此，您所看到的是 2023 年至 2022 年之間，您將有效地看到我們的資本支出在資源支出方面確實有所下降，但情況各不相同。因此請記住，它會根據您具體談論的地區而有所不同。所以我們不能把它變成一個二元對話。

So what we're saying as we walk away from things where we just don't see the necessary returns. So the last German wind auction that we discussed previously, we just couldn't get there at the end of the day. Whereas in Australia, really seeing some decent returns coming through, and that's really where we have an integrated value chain. So we're being able to see the side of things where we have the demand in our own assets, we also have the customer book, but also we have battery power as well. So between all of the different elements with the renewables, we're able to see an end-to-end just significant return coming through.

因此，當我們放棄那些看不到必要回報的事情時，我們會說些什麼。因此，我們之前討論的最後一次德國風電拍賣最終未能實現。而在澳大利亞，我們確實看到了一些可觀的回報，而這正是我們擁有完整價值鏈的地方。因此，我們能夠看到我們自己的資產有需求的一面，我們也有客戶名冊，而且我們也有電池電源。因此，在再生能源的所有不同元素之間，我們能夠看到端到端的顯著回報。

But this is about remaining disciplined, and we will be very, very focused on that. So very much ensuring that can we hit the hurdle rates? Do we believe we bring something different? And what's our confidence level in doing so?

但這是關於保持紀律，我們將非常非常關注這一點。那麼非常確保我們能夠達到最低門檻嗎？我們相信我們會帶來不同的東西嗎？我們這樣做的信心有多大？

Thanks, Sinead. Alastair, your question around resources, I think, the discussions you and I have also had in the past. I mean, in my mind, resources are ultimately a proxy for cash flow. And that's where our focus is. The quality of the resources rather than does it sit under the 1P or 2P. We still have a very attractive funnel of resources, as indicated by 20-plus years of commercial resource. By the way, that is even post an SPDC sale in Nigeria as well. So we will continue to have north of 20 years of commercial resource.

謝謝，西妮德。阿拉斯泰爾，你關於資源的問題，我想，你和我過去也曾進行過討論。我的意思是，在我看來，資源最終是現金流的代表。這就是我們的重點。資源的品質而不是它屬於1P還是2P。 20多年的商業資源表明，我們仍然擁有非常有吸引力的資源管道。順便說一句，這甚至包括 SPDC 在尼日利亞的銷售。所以我們將繼續擁有20年以上的商業資源。

And what's critical is it's high-quality barrels. You are talking predominantly deepwater barrels, predominantly LNG barrels. And what gives me particular confidence in the coming years is you're talking about some very attractive high-margin projects coming in. You have, for example, Mero-2 that just started up in Brazil at the turn of the year. You have Mero-3 coming through, Mero-4. We have Gato do Mato after that. Vito is up and running and delivering within the first year, top quartile schedule, top quartile availability. We have then Whale coming after that, Sparta coming on top of that even before you go into the Qatari project. And then, of course, you have LNG Canada that is also sort of making good progress. In LNG Canada, while it does not have a lot of, if any, bookable reserves, you can imagine how much value that is going to create.

關鍵是它的酒桶品質很高。你說的主要是深水桶，主要是液化天然氣桶。讓我對未來幾年特別有信心的是，你們正在談論一些非常有吸引力的高利潤項目。例如，年初剛在巴西啟動的 Mero-2。你有 Mero-3、Mero-4。之後我們有 Gato do Mato。 Vito 已啟動並運行，並在第一年內交付了最高四分之一的時間表和最高四分之一的可用性。鯨魚緊隨其後，斯巴達甚至在你進入卡達計畫之前就已經領先了。當然，加拿大液化天然氣公司也取得了良好的進展。在加拿大液化天然氣公司，雖然它沒有大量（如果有的話）可預訂儲備，但您可以想像這將創造多少價值。

So we continue to be very, very focused on the overall cash flow potential of this company. And as indicated by our confidence, giving a 6% per annum free cash flow growth between now and 2030, you can see the confidence that we have going through that. Of course, from now to then, we will continue to look at the right opportunities to be able to both hopefully, discover resources, to acquire the right resources or within the capital discipline that we have outlined, which is the $22 billion to $25 billion over the next two years.

因此，我們繼續非常非常關注該公司的整體現金流潛力。正如我們的信心所表明的那樣，從現在到 2030 年，自由現金流每年增長 6%，您可以看到我們對經歷這一過程的信心。當然，從現在到那時，我們將繼續尋找合適的機會，希望能夠發現資源、獲得合適的資源，或者在我們概述的資本紀律範圍內，即 220 億至 250 億美元在接下來的兩年裡。

I think that's all I wanted to cover. Maybe -- thank you for the question, Alastair. Maybe Luke, we can go to the next one, please.

我想這就是我想要涵蓋的全部內容。也許——謝謝你的提問，阿拉斯泰爾。也許盧克，我們可以轉到下一個。

Our next call is Irene Himona from Societe Generale.

我們的下一個電話是來自法國興業銀行的 Irene Himona。

My first question is really one of clarification where you indicated that with your forthcoming annual ESG event next month, you intend to cover the energy transition strategy. But last year's CMD, obviously, you retired all the many operational targets relating to that transition. So we kind of lost visibility on what the path looks like. Can we expect you will restore that visibility at this ESG Day, please? And will present the new sort of longer-term transition strategy?

我的第一個問題實際上是一個澄清，您表示在下個月即將舉行的年度 ESG 活動中，您打算涵蓋能源轉型策略。但顯然，去年的 CMD 取消了與該過渡相關的所有營運目標。所以我們有點看不到這條路是什麼樣子了。我們能否期望您能在本次 ESG 日恢復這種知名度？並將提出新的長期轉型策略？

And then my second question, a quick one on Q4 cash flows. Very, very strong EBITDA, and then you had a [$1 billion] charge for derivatives and a larger [$1.6 billion] charge for other. I think that may refer to these biofuel certificates. But can you perhaps remind us briefly how that works? And is there any guidance you can give us directionally for that going forward?

然後是我的第二個問題，關於第四季現金流的快速問題。 EBITDA 非常非常強勁，然後衍生性商品費用為 [10 億美元]，其他費用則更高 [16 億美元]。我認為這可能指的是這些生物燃料證書。但您能否簡單提醒我們這是如何運作的？您可以為我們提供任何未來方向的指導嗎？

Well, I'd love to have taken the second one. I will leave that to you, Sinead in a moment. Let me maybe, Irene, cover your first one, where -- if you allow me just a moment to reframe it. What we will be announcing in March is, in essence, the second leg of what we announced in Capital Markets Day 2023 in June. It's one strategy, we focused a lot more on the more value side of it in June, and we will focus a bit more on the -- with less emissions when it comes to March.

嗯，我很想拿第二個。我一會兒就把這個交給你了，西妮德。艾琳，也許讓我介紹一下你的第一個，如果你允許我一點時間重新組織它的話。我們將在 3 月宣布的內容本質上是我們在 6 月 2023 年資本市場日宣布的內容的第二站。這是一個策略，我們在 6 月份更專注於其更有價值的一面，到了 3 月份，我們將更專注於排放量減少。

The retirement of a number of targets was not to create lack of transparency, but really was an intent as we look to transform Shell into the company we wanted to be to focus on the key targets that matter. Both the financial targets as well as the carbon targets that you will have seen when we announced them in Capital Markets Day. And so what you should expect coming in March is real clarity on what are the areas that we will continue to go forward with, not a whole bunch of new targets. And that is not the intent here. But the intent is to get clear on where we see value opportunities back to the question that was asked earlier around where we see, I think, it was by Alastair, opportunities for investment for our low carbon spend, of which we invested $5.6 billion last year. We want to be very clear on where we see those value pools emerging, where we have particular strength to be able to compete, where we see customer demand evolving in a positive way. And where do we see regulatory support that enables the overall investment to create the value that our shareholders expect. So expect more of that rather than a whole set of new targets. In our annual reports, you will always be updated on the progress that we are making towards the ambitions that we have set for ourselves. Sinead?

取消一些目標並不是為了缺乏透明度，而是真正的意圖，因為我們希望將殼牌轉變為我們希望成為的公司，專注於重要的關鍵目標。當我們在資本市場日宣布財務目標和碳目標時，您將看到它們。因此，三月你應該期待的是我們將繼續推進哪些領域的真正清晰，而不是一大堆新目標。這不是這裡的意圖。但目的是弄清楚我們在哪裡看到了價值機會，回到之前提出的問題，我認為是阿拉斯泰爾提出的，我們的低碳支出的投資機會，我們去年投資了 56 億美元。年。我們希望非常清楚地了解這些價值池在哪裡出現，我們在哪裡有特別的競爭優勢，在哪裡我們看到客戶需求以積極的方式發展。我們在哪裡可以看到監管支持，使整體投資能夠創造股東期望的價值。因此，我們期待更多的目標，而不是一整套新目標。在我們的年度報告中，您將隨時了解我們為實現自己設定的目標所取得的進展。西妮德？

Indeed. And thanks, Irene. So basically, what you're asking is in terms of the cash flow from operations, excluding working capital, that's really where the question is going, what's unusual? So when you look at it the way I always try and separate it is what is Q4 specific and what is simply not. So that you can see the growth coming through. When I look at it in terms of what is Q4 specific in terms of excluding working capital, it really comes down to just a number of things. It's really about timing. So this is around the German emission certificates that come through and the U.S. biofuels program that we're part of. Those two things happen every Q4, and you see them coming through. And that combined with the extra tax that we pay, pure and simple. In Q4, it's phasing of a tax payment. And of course, given how much profit we made, we had extra taxes that came through. Those three things together actually come to about [$1.5 billion]. So you see that hit coming through in Q4, which is unusual to us.

的確。謝謝，艾琳。所以基本上，你問的是營運現金流，不包括營運資本，這才是真正的問題所在，什麼是不尋常的？因此，當你以我總是嘗試區分的方式來看待它時，你會發現什麼是第四季度特有的，什麼不是。這樣你就可以看到成長的過程。當我從第四季度排除營運資本的具體情況來看時，它實際上可以歸結為很多事情。這確實是關於時機的。因此，這是圍繞通過的德國排放證書和我們參與的美國生物燃料計劃而言的。這兩件事每個第四季都會發生，你會看到它們的發生。再加上我們支付的額外稅，純粹而簡單。第四季度，分階段納稅。當然，考慮到我們賺取了多少利潤，我們還需要繳納額外的稅金。這三件事加起來實際上約為 [15 億美元]。所以你看到第四季出現了這樣的打擊，這對我們來說是不尋常的。

Then in terms of things that are not Q4 specific, what I would sort of direct your attention to is it's really related to price moves, that's twofold. One is [Cosan], the cost of supply adjustment. It's really just crude prices going down. And the second one is derivatives as you rightly pointed out, and that's around about [$1.1 billion]. So those two combined are just over [$ 2 billion]. So going back to that, you saw $1.5 billion that is Q4-specific. It's really around timing. And the second bit is really price related. So I hope that gives clarity.

然後，就非第四季度特定的事情而言，我想提醒您注意的是，它確實與價格走勢有關，這是雙重的。一是【Cosan】，供應成本調整。其實只是原油價格下跌。第二個是衍生品，正如您正確指出的那樣，大約是[11億美元]。所以這兩者加起來剛好超過 [20 億美元]。回到這一點，您會看到第四季度特定的 15 億美元。這確實是關於時機的。第二點確實與價格相關。所以我希望這能說明問題。

Thank you, Sinead. Irene, thank you for the questions. Luke, can we go to the next one, please?

謝謝你，西妮德。艾琳，謝謝你的提問。盧克，我們可以轉到下一個嗎？

Our next caller is Peter Low from Redburn Atlantic.

我們的下一個來電者是來自 Redburn Atlantic 的 Peter Low。

I had a question on disposals. You announced Nigeria just this month that you've been linked to several other potential divestments in the press and you also said you're looking to kind of exit your Singapore chemical refining asset. Can you perhaps [sort of update] on how that program is progressing and perhaps how large disposal proceeds could be kind of this year and in the coming years?

我有一個關於處置的問題。您本月剛在奈及利亞宣布，您已在媒體上與其他幾項潛在的撤資聯繫在一起，並且您還表示您正在尋求退出新加坡化學煉油資產。您能否[更新]該計劃的進展情況以及今年和未來幾年的處置收益可能有多大？

And then the second question was on inflation. In your kind of cost reduction slides, you show that actually kind of inflation has contributed to an increase in costs in 2023. I was just interested where in the business that's coming through and sort of what level of inflation you're currently seeing and planning for?

第二個問題是關於通貨膨脹。在您的成本削減幻燈片中，您表明實際上某種類型的通貨膨脹導致了 2023 年成本的增加。我只是感興趣業務的哪些方面正在經歷以及您目前看到和計劃的通貨膨脹水平為了？

You want to take both?

你想兩者都拿嗎？

Sure. In terms of divestments, you mentioned specifically SPDC and Singapore. SPDC is a great step forward, gaining momentum. I'm very, very pleased to see that as an outcome. That will happen in the course of this year. We have -- waiting for those approvals, et cetera. You'll also have seen, we announced at the time that approximately all of the proceeds that came with it, so I'll leave the detail there because there's some financing in it as well. And in terms of Singapore, which is really the refinery, Bukom and Jurong, the refining and chemicals plant together, we've confirmed that we are divesting and we're progressing through that. So I'm hopeful to be able to update you later in the year on that, Peter. In terms of the proceeds, of course, I wouldn't talk about commercial at this point, but both of them are more about ensuring that it fits our strategy rather than significant cash flows coming in from divestments. So that gives you a bit of an indication.

當然。在撤資方面，您特別提到了 SPDC 和新加坡。 SPDC 向前邁出了一大步，勢頭強勁。我非常非常高興看到這樣的結果。這將在今年發生。我們正在等待這些批准等等。您還會看到，我們當時宣布了大約所有隨之而來的收益，所以我將保留細節，因為其中也有一些融資。就新加坡而言，實際上是煉油廠，Bukom 和 Jurong，煉油和化工廠的總和，我們已經確認我們正在剝離，並且正在取得進展。因此，我希望能夠在今年稍後向您通報最新情況，彼得。當然，就收益而言，我現在不會談論商業，但它們更多的是為了確保它符合我們的策略，而不是來自撤資的大量現金流。這給了你一些指示。

Secondly, in terms of inflation, yes, I'm glad you picked that up. If you look at our OpEx, what you actually see this year is actually that the OpEx year-on-year has come down. We're really pleased to see that because what that means is not only do we deliver the $1 billion of structural savings that we discussed and that we promised [on our route to] $2 billion to $3 billion. But more importantly, what we also did was we [ate] inflation and we managed to cover acquisitions coming in. And there were quite a few of those with Nature Energy with Volta and many other things, including new production, which drives cash flow as well. So significant performance by the business, which is pleasing to see.

其次，就通貨膨脹而言，是的，我很高興你注意到這一點。如果你看一下我們的營運支出，你今年實際看到的實際上是營運支出比去年同期下降了。我們真的很高興看到這一點，因為這意味著我們不僅實現了我們討論過的 10 億美元結構性節約，而且我們承諾 [在我們的路線上] 20 億至 30 億美元。但更重要的是，我們所做的還包括我們[承受]通貨膨脹，我們設法涵蓋了進來的收購。其中有相當多的公司是Nature Energy、Volta 和許多其他項目，包括新的生產，這推動了現金流出色地。企業的業績如此顯著，令人高興。

What are we seeing on inflation? It is considerable. We're beginning to see that come down. Of course, as you go into 2024, our own view on that is specifically that will probably be between 3% and 7%, roughly speaking. But the way we structure our company we're very much comfortable that we will be able to try and absorb that with our contracts and the variety of things we'll do. We'll see how it plays out in the year. It's very much sticky in certain areas rather than others. Where do we see it specifically, Peter? We're seeing it more in some of the electrical installations and some of the fabrication areas specifically, and of course, res without a doubt the renewable space is there. But that gives you a bit of a feel. I think fundamentally, the message to take away is that we've done exactly what we said. We've been able to deliver the structural savings, be able to eat inflation and be able to absorb new production coming in or acquisitions coming in.

我們對通貨膨脹有何看法？這是相當可觀的。我們開始看到這種情況有所下降。當然，當你進入 2024 年時，我們對此的具體看法是，粗略地說，這一比例可能會在 3% 到 7% 之間。但我們對公司的架構方式感到非常滿意，我們將能夠嘗試透過我們的合約和我們要做的各種事情來吸收這一點。我們將看看今年的情況如何。它在某些領域比其他領域非常黏。彼得，我們具體在哪裡看到它？我們在一些電氣裝置和一些製造區域中看到了更多的這種情況，當然，毫無疑問，那裡有可再生空間。但這給你一點感覺。我認為從根本上來說，我們要傳達的訊息是，我們已經完全按照我們所說的去做了。我們已經能夠實現結構性節約，能夠應對通貨膨脹，並且能夠吸收新的生產或收購。

Thanks, Sinead, and thank you, Peter, for the questions. Luke, can we have the next question please?

謝謝西尼德，也謝謝彼得提出的問題。路克，我們可以問下一個問題嗎？

Our next call is Giacomo Romeo from Jefferies.

我們的下一個電話是來自傑富瑞 (Jefferies) 的賈科莫·羅密歐 (Giacomo Romeo)。

Yes. First question is on your payout level in 2023, which came above the upper end of the 30% to 40% range. I'm just trying to frame please and understand sort of what's your approach? And are we allowed to talk about 40% as a soft ceiling like we used to with the previous range and under what circumstances you'd be considering keeping it above that level? Second question is on Namibia. I just wanted to check what's your work plan for this year? I think there's one more exploration well. And just wanted to check what's your planned [potential] activity on [39] this year?

是的。第一個問題是關於您 2023 年的支付水平，高於 30% 至 40% 範圍的上限。我只是想框架並理解你的方法是什麼？我們是否可以像之前的範圍一樣將 40% 作為軟上限，在什麼情況下您會考慮將其保持在該水平之上？第二個問題是關於納米比亞的。我只是想了解一下你今年的工作計畫是什麼？我認為還有一項探索。只是想檢查一下您今年在 [39] 上計劃的[潛在]活動是什麼？

Thanks, Giacomo, do you want to take the first one?

謝謝，賈科莫，你想拿第一個嗎？

Sure. Thanks, Giacomo. My preference is definitely not to introduce any new targets or anything else in. Let's keep it to the fact that if we say something, we're going to do it, Giacomo and that's what you see coming through. So 30% to 40% is through the cycle. That's very much what we've said in Capital Markets Day, and that's what you will continue to see us deliver.

當然。謝謝，賈科莫。我的偏好絕對是不引入任何新目標或其他任何內容。讓我們堅持這樣一個事實：如果我們說了什麼，我們就會去做，賈科莫，這就是你所看到的結果。所以30%到40%是透過這個循環的。這就是我們在資本市場日所說的內容，也是您將繼續看到我們提供的內容。

What is our thinking around that? We have a 4% progressive dividend, as you know, very attractive returns overall. Our shares remain undervalued by any metric that you want to look at. And therefore, we're looking to preferentially allocate towards those, really clear of why we would do that when you're sitting at 15% free cash flow yield. Of course, we're going to be going after the shares. Comfort in terms of leaning on the balance sheet when I need to lean on it. But fundamentally, what I'm doing is looking through the quarter. So it's not specifically just on the individual quarter. I'm making sure that I take a pragmatic approach to it. And basically have confidence in what are the cash flows going forward of the company. Hence, the fact you saw the distributions that you saw so far.

我們對此有何想法？如您所知，我們有 4% 的累進股息，整體回報非常有吸引力。無論你想看什麼指標，我們的股票仍然被低估。因此，我們希望優先分配給那些，非常清楚為什麼當你的自由現金流收益率為 15% 時我們會這樣做。當然，我們將追求股票。當我需要依靠資產負債表時，我會感到很舒服。但從根本上說，我正在做的是回顧整個季度。因此，這不僅僅針對單一季度。我確保採取務實的態度。基本上對公司未來的現金流有信心。因此，您看到了到目前為止所看到的分佈。

And Giacomo on Namibia, little to update at this stage. I think -- as you are well aware, we've been drilling some exploration wells, some appraisal wells. We have a couple actually that we plan to drill in the coming months. As I've said in the past, there's no question around the volume of the resource. The biggest question is around finding the sweet spots within that resource, within the rock to be able to create the opportunities for exciting developments there. And that's what we have to be able to find out. We will take our time and be thorough in the way we look through that because these are significant capital investments. And therefore, we want to make sure that we are able to deliver a return for our shareholders. And this is why we want to really derisk the opportunity. And of course, it also helps that we're not the only ones drilling there.

賈科莫關於納米比亞的情況，現階段沒有什麼可更新的。我認為，正如你們所知，我們一直在鑽探一些勘探井和一些評估井。事實上，我們計劃在未來幾個月內進行一些鑽探。正如我過去所說，資源量是毫無疑問的。最大的問題是在該資源中、在岩石中找到最佳點，以便能夠為那裡令人興奮的開發創造機會。這就是我們必須能夠找到的答案。我們將花時間徹底研究這個問題，因為這些都是重大的資本投資。因此，我們希望確保我們能夠為股東帶來回報。這就是為什麼我們想要真正消除這個機會的風險。當然，我們並不是唯一在那裡鑽探的人，這也很有幫助。

So there's other activities in the basin, which will, of course, provide more data points that informs the broader picture around the prospectivity of the basin and our ability to create value from it. I hope that helps a bit. Thanks again for the questions. Luke, if we can go to the next question, please.

因此，該盆地還有其他活動，當然，這些活動將提供更多數據點，為該盆地的前景以及我們從中創造價值的能力提供更廣泛的資訊。我希望這能有所幫助。再次感謝您的提問。路克，我們可以進入下一個問題嗎？

Our next caller is Josh Stone from UBS.

我們的下一個來電者是瑞銀集團的喬希·斯通。

Two questions, please. Firstly, just the recent elections in the Netherlands and a potential impact on Shell, I appreciate coalition talks are still ongoing. But do you see any risk to an impact to your green investments in the country with particular interest in the biofuel and hydrogen projects? Do these continue regardless of the regulatory environment? Or could we see a slowdown in terms of change in mandates? And then second question on Nature Energy. And maybe if you could just talk about how that business is performing versus your expectation? And how the integration with where the business is going? And if you learned any lessons in the biogas market in particular?

請教兩個問題。首先，就荷蘭最近的選舉以及對殼牌的潛在影響而言，我對聯盟談判仍在進行中表示讚賞。但是您認為您在該國的綠色投資（尤其是對生物燃料和氫氣項目特別感興趣）是否存在受到影響的風險？無論監管環境如何，這些都會持續嗎？或者我們會看到任務變化放緩嗎？然後是關於自然能源的第二個問題。也許您可以談談該業務的表現與您的預期相比如何？以及如何與業務發展方向整合？您是否特別在沼氣市場中吸取了任何教訓？

Thanks. I'll take the first one. If you want to take the second one. I think what's critical to say is all of our investments irrespective of the country, I think, have to be resilient to multiple administrations, multiple governments coming in and coming out, Josh. I mean that's the reality. For the specific projects that you talked about in the Netherlands, of course, the underpinning of the regulatory support is EU support, not just the Dutch support. A lot of what we tap into are the Renewable Energy Directive, #1 and #2 and potentially one day #3. Those are what creates some of the broader support for those projects. And so far, we don't see any moves away from that. And that's going to be a key determinant of the success of those projects. We will continue to look at opportunities to be able to, of course, engage with the government when it comes into power. For now, all the indications are support for the continued investment that we are making in the Netherlands, which is substantial by the way, predominantly in the low-carbon space as we also unwind our presence there on the Groningen field.

謝謝。我就拿第一個。如果你想拿第二個。我認為最重要的是，我們所有的投資，無論在哪個國家，都必須能夠適應多屆政府、多屆政府的進出，喬許。我的意思是這就是現實。當然，對於你提到的荷蘭的具體項目，監管支持的基礎是歐盟的支持，而不僅僅是荷蘭的支持。我們利用的內容很多都是再生能源指令，#1 和#2，甚至有一天可能是#3。這些都是為這些項目帶來更廣泛支持的原因。到目前為止，我們還沒有看到任何偏離這個目標的舉動。這將是這些專案成功的關鍵決定因素。當然，我們將繼續尋找機會，以便在政府上台後與政府接觸。目前，所有跡像都支持我們在荷蘭的持續投資，順便說一下，這是一筆巨大的投資，主要是在低碳領域，因為我們也放鬆了在格羅寧根油田的存在。

And with respect to Nature Energy, it's quite early to tell at the moment. So we're into the first year of it, not even finished the first year so far. What we're seeing is a lot of learnings going back and forth because what you may remember is when we actually bought Nature Energy, we said we would actually fill some of our renewable natural gas activities within Europe into it as well. So it's a great opportunity for us to be able to see the information flow in both directions and actually learn from the team there as well to see the trading opportunities that we have as well.

至於自然能源，目前下結論還為時過早。所以我們已經進入了第一年，到目前為止甚至還沒有完成第一年。我們看到的是許多來回的學習，因為你可能還記得，當我們實際購買 Nature Energy 時，我們說我們實際上也會將歐洲境內的一些可再生天然氣活動納入其中。因此，這對我們來說是一個很好的機會，能夠看到雙向的資訊流，並實際向那裡的團隊學習，並看到我們擁有的交易機會。

So early days, information flowing, making sure we actually get in place both the standards that we want to have from both sides and making sure that we have the ability to be able to move the molecules where we want. So looking forward to provide some updates into the future as well.

所以早期，資訊流動，確保我們真正落實了雙方想要的標準，並確保我們有能力將分子移動到我們想要的地方。因此，期待未來提供一些更新。

Thanks, Sinead. Thanks, Josh. Luke can we get the next question, please?

謝謝，西妮德。謝謝，喬許。路克，我們可以回答下一個問題嗎？

Our next caller is Lydia Rainforth, from Barclays.

我們的下一個來電者是來自巴克萊銀行的莉迪亞·雷恩福斯 (Lydia Rainforth)。

Two questions. But on the first one, there is obviously a lot of free cash flow within the business, and it is quite remarkable how much you're generating. And Sinead I agree with that [saying] that your shares are undervalued. Did you ever think about giving an annual number for the buyback? And clearly, I can take 40% of my forecast and get to a number. But just on your side, why not have the confidence to give an annual number? And this is a [vaguely like] but on the acquisition side, we obviously have seen a lot of acquisitions across the globe. Is there any point where you think as you were missing out on this?

兩個問題。但就第一個面向而言，企業內部顯然有大量的自由現金流，而且產生的現金流量相當驚人。西尼德（Sinead）我同意你的股票被低估的說法。您有沒有想過給出每年的回購數字？顯然，我可以根據預測的 40% 得出一個數字。但就你這邊，為什麼沒有信心給一個年度數字呢？這是[隱約相似]但在收購方面，我們顯然已經在全球範圍內看到了很多收購。您是否認為自己錯過了這一點？

And then secondly, on the chemical side, on the Pennsylvania cracker, where are you now in terms of certification of some of those products? And it does appear that it's going to be difficult to meet that cost of capital hurdle. So when you're thinking about that process of would you do it again [actually] or how we should not make that sort of investment on, [one] that it's not going to make the return?

其次，在化學方面，在賓州餅乾方面，您現在在其中一些產品的認證方面處於什麼位置？而且看起來確實很難滿足資本成本的要求。因此，當您考慮這個過程時，您是否會[實際上]再做一次，或者我們如何不應該進行這種投資，[一個]它不會帶來回報？

Yes. Thank you very much, Lydia. I think inherently three questions. I'll take the last two, start with those and then come back to you, Sinead, on the free cash flow generation. I think -- let me start with Monaca, and then go to the acquisition. On Monaca, you recall last update I provided was that the first two polyethylene trains -- two of three were running well. They are running at or above capacity and continue to do so, which is pleasing to see. I also updated you at the time that there was equipment issues on the third train. I'm pleased to report that, that piece of equipment now has been installed, the compressor that we needed to put into place and is in the process of being started up and will ramp up through the course of the coming weeks.

是的。非常感謝你，莉迪亞。我本質上認為三個問題。我將從最後兩個開始，然後回到你，西尼德，關於自由現金流的產生。我想——讓我從 Monaca 開始，然後再討論收購。在莫納卡，你還記得我提供的最後一次更新是前兩列聚乙烯列車——三列中的兩列運行良好。他們正在以滿載或超負荷運行，並將繼續這樣做，這是令人高興的。我當時也向您通報了第三班列車上出現設備問題的情況。我很高興地報告，該設備現已安裝，我們需要安裝的壓縮機正在啟動，並將在未來幾週內逐步啟動。

So that allows us, hopefully, to stabilize the plant from there on. Our focus right now is on volume, on just pushing the volume through the plant. And why is that? That's because the differentials at the moment between the gas price and the product price are significant. So even before we get very forensic around the potential grades that we have that we can actually crack out there. The real focus is on just getting flow through, and that's what the team is focused on for the coming months. And then over time, of course, we will continue to optimize value through the opportunities that we have technically to do so.

因此，我們希望能夠從此穩定工廠。我們現在的重點是產量，只是推動工廠的產量。為什麼是這樣？這是因為目前天然氣價格和產品價格之間的差異很大。因此，即使在我們對我們擁有的潛在成績進行非常深入的調查之前，我們實際上也可以在那裡破解。真正的重點是讓流程順利通過，這就是團隊未來幾個月的重點。當然，隨著時間的推移，我們將繼續透過技術上擁有的機會來優化價值。

On your question around acquisition, I think, the worst thing you can ever do is get (inaudible) when others are acquiring. We set out a very clear strategy middle of last year. And if anything, we stand today in a position where we are very pleased with not just the progress we are making, but the momentum that we are building towards that strategy. And we are absolutely convinced that, that strategy, if we can continue to deliver on the pace we are delivering, will unlock significantly more value than any other acquisition. And of course, you see that playing through. You see it through the stability of our cash flow generation. I mean, our Gulf of Mexico business this last quarter produced at a record high, the highest in over two decades. Our Queensland Gas Company asset base is producing at a record high, the highest since it started up 10 years ago. So the quality of the CFFO is strong.

關於你關於收購的問題，我認為，你能做的最糟糕的事情就是在別人收購時得到（聽不清楚）。去年年中我們制定了非常明確的策略。如果有什麼不同的話，那就是我們今天所處的位置，我們不僅對我們正在取得的進展感到非常滿意，而且對我們為實現該戰略而建立的勢頭感到非常滿意。我們絕對相信，如果我們能夠繼續以我們目前的速度交付，該策略將釋放比任何其他收購更多的價值。當然，你會看到這一點。您可以從我們現金流產生的穩定性中看到這一點。我的意思是，我們上個季度的墨西哥灣業務創下了歷史新高，是二十多年來的最高水平。我們的昆士蘭天然氣公司資產基礎產量創歷史新高，是該公司成立 10 年來的最高水準。所以說CFFO的品質是很強的。

Yes, there's more to do to get Prelude and Monaca up and running. At the same time, Sinead has already alluded to the growth in CFFO coming from the 200,000 barrels per day and new projects that will be coming through. Cost is coming down. CapEx discipline is showing. So I think you see all the credentials to be able to really focus on unlocking that value from the first sprint. And we're only two quarters into a 10-quarter Sprint. And so I do think it's a unique opportunity for us to continue to use that surplus cash to be able to lean in and do more buybacks, which is exactly what you see us do, and we will consistently do that in line with what we have said we will do. Sinead?

是的，要讓 Prelude 和 Monaca 啟動並運行，還有很多工作要做。同時，Sinead 已經提到 CFFO 的成長來自於每天 20 萬桶的產量以及即將實施的新項目。成本正在下降。資本支出紀律正在顯現。因此，我認為您已經看到了能夠真正專注於從第一個衝刺中釋放該價值的所有憑證。我們距離 10 個季度的 Sprint 只剩下兩個季度了。因此，我確實認為這對我們來說是一個獨特的機會，可以繼續利用多餘的現金來進行更多的回購，這正是你所看到的我們所做的，我們將始終如一地按照我們現有的做法這樣做說我們會這樣做。西妮德？

I think that's the perfect answer to the first question as well. I think my sort of brief response would be when we set a target, you can see that we're looking at performance, not promises. We will meet it and hopefully beat it. You can see that preference is to not set a huge number of additional targets along the way. Just look at our track record.

我認為這也是第一個問題的完美答案。我想我的簡短回應是，當我們設定目標時，你可以看到我們專注的是績效，而不是承諾。我們將會遇到它，並希望能夠擊敗它。您可以看到，人們的偏好是不要在過程中設定大量額外目標。只要看看我們的記錄就知道了。

If you look back over the last, however many quarters, 6 quarters, whatever it may be, it's a very tight range in terms of the buyback. So hopefully, it gives you complete predictability in terms of what's going forward, Lydia as well. But fundamentally, I'll always look at the performance of the company in the quarter and looking forward as well. That's why you see a $3.5 billion share buyback at this point.

如果你回顧過去的情況，無論是多少個季度、6 個季度，無論是什麼，就回購而言，這都是一個非常狹窄的範圍。所以希望它能讓你對未來的發展有完全的可預測性，莉迪亞也是如此。但從根本上說，我將始終關注公司本季的業績並展望未來。這就是為什麼此時您會看到 35 億美元的股票回購。

And maybe a fine point there, Lydia as well. You'd ask me, would we do Penn Chem again? I think -- what we will continue to do is to be very clear where every single dollar of capital is going to be prioritized. Does it go into a buyback or does it go into other projects? We have said we're going to keep our capital employed in chemicals flat through the decade. So of course, that's a key consideration. And we will make sure that we do less of what we would call the mega, mega projects. That is very much the philosophy that we are adopting. Small and replicable is beautiful, and we see it in the context of Vito to Whale to Sparta. And so more and more of our capital expenditure is going to be in areas where we feel we can really get our hands around those opportunities. and only in exceptional cases where we truly see value add will we go for the bigger projects.

也許這也是一個很好的觀點，莉迪亞。你會問我，我們會再做一次賓州化學嗎？我認為，我們將繼續做的是非常明確每一美元資本的優先順序。是用於回購還是其他項目？我們已經說過，我們將在未來十年內保持我們在化學品領域的資本投入持平。當然，這是一個關鍵的考慮因素。我們將確保減少所謂的大型專案。這正是我們正在採用的理念。小型和可複製是美麗的，我們在維托到鯨魚到斯巴達的背景下看到了它。因此，我們越來越多的資本支出將投入到我們認為能夠真正抓住這些機會的領域。只有在我們真正看到增值的特殊情況下，我們才會選擇更大的項目。

Thank you for the questions. If we can go to the next question, please, Luke?

謝謝你的提問。路克，我們可以進入下一個問題嗎？

Our next caller is Christopher Kuplent from Bank of America.

我們的下一個來電者是來自美國銀行的 Christopher Kuplent。

Just one each, if I may. Wael, maybe you can tell us where your -- as you call it, 10 quarter sprint so far is frustrating you? Where have you not made progress as you would have hoped? I appreciate it's early on asking you that question, but if you can give us a bit of color and maybe my particular hobby horse, your experience from what you did in Pakistan, is that a model that you're hoping to roll out elsewhere when you think about cutting the tail in your retail network?

如果可以的話，每人一份。 Wael，也許你可以告訴我們，到目前為止，你所說的 10 個季度的衝刺讓你感到沮喪嗎？你在哪些方面沒有預期的進步？我很高興現在就問你這個問題，但如果你能給我們一些顏色，也許我特別喜歡的馬，你在巴基斯坦所做的經歷，是你希望在其他地方推出的模式您考慮削減零售網絡中的尾巴嗎？

And one for you, I'm really sorry, Sinead, but I do have trouble calculating a 42% CFFO payout ratio on 2023. It seems like you're giving yourself a lot of credit for working capital inflows, et cetera. So is it fair to assume that the underlying payout ratio is significantly higher once you go below the CFFO headline. And that, to me, would be a very bullish interpretation going forward when working capital changes perhaps go the other way.

對你來說，我真的很抱歉，西尼德，但我確實很難計算 2023 年 42% 的 CFFO 支付率。看起來你對自己的營運資本流入等給予了很大的信任。因此，一旦低於 CFFO 標題，假設基本支付率會顯著升高是否公平？對我來說，當營運資本變動可能朝相反的方向發展時，這將是一個非常樂觀的解釋。

Thanks, Chris. Let me cover the first one and then have Sinead cover the second one. Look, I think I just outlined earlier, Chris, the strong confidence I have, but also humility to recognize indeed, we are early in the journey. What are the frustrations? Let me sort of provide a couple of maybe live examples rather than just talk theoretically. So one of the things that gives me confidence -- well, let me step back. What we are doing well clearly on the cost reduction side is the portfolio. And we are moving, maybe I'll pick up your retail question there. We are looking at every option for those tail markets or for those tail assets to be able to monetize them or shift the structures around them, shift them into trademark license agreements or the like to really make sure that our capital employed and our energies and our focus are on the right areas. So we will continue to do that.

謝謝，克里斯。讓我介紹第一個，然後讓 Sinead 介紹第二個。看，我想我剛才概述了，克里斯，我有很強的信心，但也謙虛地認識到，我們確實處於旅程的早期。有哪些挫敗感？讓我提供一些可能是活生生的例子，而不僅僅是理論上的談論。所以給我信心的一件事是——好吧，讓我退後一步。我們在降低成本方面做得很好的是產品組合。我們要搬家了，也許我會在那裡回答你的零售問題。我們正在為那些尾部市場或那些尾部資產尋找各種選擇，以便能夠將它們貨幣化或改變它們周圍的結構，將它們轉變為商標許可協議或類似協議，以真正確保我們的資本、我們的精力和我們的能力得到充分利用。重點放在正確的領域。所以我們將繼續這樣做。

The real focus -- and we always knew the hard yards come from the structural cost reductions. And there, we are really making progress in a number of areas. I'll give you one simple one that I think is iconic in the bigger scheme of things. Our asset managers have historically had some 1,800 standards that they need to be complying by. So we spent time last year really focused on how do we simplify those standards, and we have reduced that requirement by 70%, while still living up to all of our safety and reliability expectations. But that's down from 1,800 to 500 standards.

真正的焦點——我們一直都知道硬碼來自於結構成本的降低。在那裡，我們確實在許多領域取得了進展。我會給你一個簡單的例子，我認為它在更大的計劃中具有標誌性。我們的資產管理公司歷來有大約 1,800 項需要遵守的標準。因此，我們去年花了很多時間真正專注於如何簡化這些標準，我們將該要求降低了 70%，同時仍滿足我們所有的安全性和可靠性期望。但這從 1,800 個標準下降到 500 個標準。

Now I wish we could do that in a week. I wish we could do that in a month, but that takes work because we really need to go back and de-bureaucratize a lot of the activities we have. And so I wish it could be faster. But there are other areas where I look and say, actually, teams are getting it. Places like the Gulf of Mexico, I talked about the record production. I would also reference how they're being able to, for example, challenge the way they do work, reducing their overall people movements offshore by some 35%, allowing us to reduce our demand on helicopters by 50%. Just small examples of where you see the momentum starting to build I'm sure I speak on Sinead's behalf as well. Both of us would love to see that to go even faster. But we also recognize we have to take an entire organization along and some of it is unpacking things which we have ingrained into our business for a long, long time. So this is transformational journey, which is both exciting but also, of course, one that is going to take its time. Sinead?

現在我希望我們能在一周內做到這一點。我希望我們能在一個月內做到這一點，但這需要工作，因為我們確實需要回去並消除我們現有的許多活動的官僚主義。所以我希望它能更快一些。但我在其他領域觀察並說，實際上，團隊正在了解這一點。在像墨西哥灣這樣的地方，我談到了創紀錄的產量。我也會提到他們如何能夠挑戰他們的工作方式，將離岸總人員流動減少約 35%，從而使我們對直升機的需求減少 50%。只是一些小例子，你可以看到勢頭開始增強，我相信我也代表西尼德發言。我們倆都希望看到這一切進展得更快。但我們也意​​識到，我們必須帶領整個組織一起前進，其中一些工作正在解開我們長期以來在業務中根深蒂固的東西。因此，這是一趟變革之旅，既令人興奮，但當然也需要時間。西妮德？

Yes. Indeed, and thanks, Chris. In terms of the question of just your point on the calculation of the payout ratio, we actually haven't changed it year-on-year. So as you know, if you look back at the previous year, so '22, where we had actually working capital outflows and quite substantial ones as well. We calculate it on the back of that. When we looked at it in '23, where we had inflows, we looked at it in that. So working capital, you're right, it does vary with us. It goes in and out across the period, but we keep it pretty consistent. What I'm probably more interested in regardless of how I calculate, is just simply put, am I giving a compelling return to my shareholders or not? I think with $23 billion across the year, we've definitely done exactly that in terms of that mix. I hope we can look through that to continue to regardless of the working capital, like the working capital inflow this quarter or not. I'm still looking through it to be able to say, do I have confidence in the future cash flows of the company to be able to continue to distribute which is why the $3.5 billion. So hopefully, you'll see that tight range that I mentioned before and that track record coming through. Happy to work the details of the calculation with you through IR at any point.

是的。確實如此，謝謝克里斯。至於你提到的派息率計算方式的問題，我們實際上比去年同期沒有改變。如您所知，如果您回顧前一年，即 22 年，我們實際上出現了營運資本外流，而且還出現了相當大的流動資金外流。我們以此為基礎進行計算。當我們在 23 年看到有資金流入時，我們就這樣看待它。所以營運資金，你是對的，它確實因我們而異。它在整個時期內進進出出，但我們保持它相當一致。無論我如何計算，我可能更感興趣的是，簡單地說，我是否為股東提供了令人信服的回報？我認為，憑藉全年 230 億美元的資金，我們在這一組合方面確實做到了這一點。我希望我們能夠繼續審視這一點，無論營運資金如何，例如本季營運資金流入與否。我仍在仔細研究它，以便能夠說，我對公司未來的現金流是否有信心，能夠繼續分配，這就是 35 億美元的原因。因此，希望您能看到我之前提到的狹窄範圍和追蹤記錄。很高興隨時透過 IR 與您一起處理計算細節。

Thanks, Sinead. And thank you, Chris, for the questions. Luke let's go to our next question please.

謝謝，西妮德。謝謝克里斯提出的問題。盧克，讓我們進入下一個問題。

Our next caller is Martijn Rats from Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個來電者是來自摩根士丹利的 Martijn Rats。

I've got two, if I may. If you look at sort of the 4Q results and also the full year 2023 results, I have a question about sort of trading and optimization. Because previously, you've indicated that trading and optimization is sort of 2% to 4% point sort of uplift to return on capital for the company at large. But sort of backing this out is always tremendously difficult. But it looks to me like in 2023, it was either at or possibly even above that range. And I was wondering if that is indeed the case. And the reason why I'm asking is that if it is indeed the case, I mean it has become -- it is a very, very large share of the company's sort of overall earnings. And the other one I wanted to ask is about the disposal of onshore Nigeria. If you could say a few words on how that might impact sort of earnings cash flow sort of going forward? What are the implications of that, that we should take into account from a modeling perspective?

如果可以的話，我有兩個。如果你看一下 4 季度的結果以及 2023 年全年的結果，我有一個關於交易和優化的問題。因為之前您已經指出，交易和優化可以使整個公司的資本回報率提高 2% 到 4%。但要推翻這一點總是非常困難的。但在我看來，到 2023 年，它要么處於這個範圍，甚至可能高於這個範圍。我想知道情況是否確實如此。我問這個問題的原因是，如果情況確實如此，我的意思是它已經成為——它在公司整體收益中佔據了非常非常大的份額。我想問的另一個問題是關於尼日利亞陸上的處置問題。您能否談談這可能會如何影響未來的獲利現金流？我們應該從建模的角度來考慮這意味著什麼？

You want to take both?

你想兩者都拿嗎？

Yes. Happy to. So indeed, thanks Martijn. And in terms of trading and optimization, particularly this quarter, we saw a really good result from our LNG trading and optimization. It's pretty exceptional quarter. Q4 tends to be very good, as you know, for them so we saw that repeated again. You're right, we said 2% to 4% in terms of Capital Markets Day in terms of the uplift that comes through. It's very difficult to guide quarter-on-quarter, of course, because there is that volatility that comes through. The way I tend to look at it is it tends to be linked to either the opportunities that we have or in effect, weather. And what we tend to see, of course, is that with respect to the LNG side, set up for the Northern Hemisphere that Wael mentioned earlier, Q4 and Q1 tend to be the stronger ones. Not surprising as gas at the end of the day. So this is about the winter there. And of course, about the volatility in [arb] opportunities, which were very strong, as he already alluded to as well, in Q4.

是的。高興。確實如此，謝謝馬丁。在交易和優化方面，特別是在本季度，我們的液化天然氣交易和優化取得了非常好的結果。這是一個非常特別的季度。正如你所知，第四季度對他們來說往往非常好，所以我們看到這種情況再次重複。你是對的，我們說過資本市場日帶來的提升為 2% 到 4%。當然，按季度進行指導非常困難，因為存在波動。我傾向於看待它的方式是，它往往與我們擁有的機會或實際上與天氣有關。當然，我們傾向於看到的是，就液化天然氣方面而言，Wael 之前提到的為北半球設立的，第四季度和第一季往往是更強的。歸根結底，作為氣體並不奇怪。這是關於那裡的冬天的。當然，關於[套利]機會的波動性，正如他在第四季度也提到的那樣，波動性非常大。

What we see in Chemicals and Products and particularly on the product side, of course, is that although there's a weather element of that, so of course, with gasoline driving season, et cetera, and diesel, you see much more, it's about the opportunities that come about. Q4 tends to not be there. And that's why we get that volatility over it. So we see that 2% to 4% is a pretty good representation. But you're right, IG tends to be on the higher end of the 2% to 4% within that range and you tend to see the Chemicals and Products more middle to lower end of it, so it gives that blend across it.

當然，我們在化學品和產品，特別是在產品方面看到的是，儘管其中存在天氣因素，所以當然，隨著汽油駕駛季節等，以及柴油，您會看到更多，這是關於出現的機會。第四季往往不存在。這就是為什麼我們會出現波動。所以我們看到 2% 到 4% 是一個很好的代表。但你是對的，IG 往往處於該範圍內 2% 到 4% 的高端，而你往往會看到化學品和產品處於其中的中低端，因此它提供了混合。

In terms of the disposals, you talked about particularly Nigeria, what are you talking about there? Well, in terms of the reserves, just to give you a bit of a feel, it's less than 5% of our reserves. But as we know, when we talk about any of these barrels, it's less than 100 KBU day as an example. But of course, it depends on price, and it depends on your ability to get paid as well as it comes through. So each barrel is not created equal, and I think that's very much the case in terms of Nigeria. So we're not worried about in terms of the impact coming out of the cash flows. And actually, when you look at the disposals we've announced, and the disposals we've already done. That growth element that Wael and myself have both talked about whether it's Timi, Vito, LNG Canada, all of those different ones coming through, they more than exceed the cash flows from the divestments, which is the key point to take away here, but thank you, Martijn.

在處置方面，您特別談到了尼日利亞，您在那裡談論了什麼？嗯，就儲備而言，只是讓您感受一下，它還不到我們儲備的 5%。但正如我們所知，當我們談論任何這些桶子時，以每天不到 100 KBU 為例。但當然，這取決於價格，也取決於您獲得報酬以及實現報酬的能力。因此，每個桶的情況並不相同，我認為尼日利亞的情況就是如此。因此，我們並不擔心現金流的影響。事實上，當你看看我們已經宣布的處置以及我們已經完成的處置。瓦爾和我自己都談到了成長因素，無論是蒂米、維托、加拿大液化天然氣公司，還是所有這些不同的公司，它們都超過了撤資帶來的現金流，這是這裡要去掉的關鍵點，但謝謝你，馬丁。

Thanks, Sinead. Thank you, Martijn, for the questions. Luke, can we go to the next one, please?

謝謝，西妮德。謝謝馬丁提出的問題。盧克，我們可以轉到下一個嗎？

Our next caller is Lucas Herrmann from BNP.

我們的下一個來電者是法國巴黎銀行的盧卡斯‧赫爾曼 (Lucas Herrmann)。

I wonder if I could push you a bit on Chemicals or a little bit more on chemicals or maybe you could help me out. So Wael, it looks like you lost about $2 billion at the EBIT level on Chemicals this year. The losses were larger in the fourth quarter than they were in the third, despite your indicated margin being improved and the comment that two of the three trains, et cetera, at Monaca are working. Can you help me understand -- as Monaca comes on, hopefully, as Singapore goes out, how do I think about the progress that one might expect to see in terms of EBIT, cash flow improvement across that business, which chunks of the business are actually making money at the present time, if any? Just walk me through the business and give me -- help me determine how to think about the profitability or otherwise, the ones likely to see as we go through this year and try and leave the macro behind, which I don't think is going to help you greatly unfortunately.

我想知道我是否可以在化學品方面向您提出一點建議，或者在化學品方面進一步推動您，或者也許您可以幫助我。因此，Wael，今年您在化學品業務的息稅前利潤水準上損失了約 20 億美元。儘管您指出的利潤率有所改善，並且評論說莫納卡的三列火車中的兩列等正在運行，但第四季度的損失比第三季度更大。你能否幫助我理解——隨著莫納卡的崛起，希望隨著新加坡的走出去，我如何看待人們在息稅前利潤、整個業務的現金流改善方面可能期望看到的進展，以及業務的哪些部分目前真的能賺錢嗎？只要帶我了解一下業務，並幫助我確定如何考慮盈利能力或其他方面，這些是我們今年經歷的可能會看到的，並嘗試將宏觀拋在腦後，我認為這不會發生不幸的是，對你有很大幫助。

Very good. Was that it, Lucas, have I missed anything that you wanted to ask as well?

非常好。是這樣嗎，盧卡斯，我是不是漏掉了你想問的任何事情？

No, that was probably far too long anyway, Wael, but I appreciate any insights.

不，無論如何，這可能太長了，Wael，但我很欣賞任何見解。

I'll give a perspective and then invite Sinead to also add if needed. Look, I think, of course, the performance of Chemicals has been something that is very much in the spotlight for us. And we haven't tried to sugarcoat that even as far back as Capital Markets Day. And we still realize we have a long journey to go there. I'd say there are three key levers that we are pulling there, Lucas. One is indeed the fundamental is making sure that the $14 billion or so of capital employed in Shell Polymers Monaca, the Penn Chem facility are generating the return. You don't see a lot of that coming through in Q4 you're right because Q4 was actually -- those units were down in Q4 as we were looking to complete all the maintenance work on the cracker itself before we were about to bring up the third train and to repair things that we had discovered through the start-up process. And so that startup of those units was, I think, towards the tail end of last year in the December period and have gone through into the January period. And as I earlier said, the third train is in the process of starting up. So don't expect much at least for the first few weeks coming out of it until we've ramped it up.

我將給出一個觀點，然後邀請 Sinead 在需要時也補充。當然，我認為化學品的表現一直是我們關注的焦點。早在資本市場日我們就沒有試圖粉飾這一點。我們仍然意識到我們還有很長的路要走。我想說，盧卡斯，我們正在拉動三個關鍵槓桿。事實上，最根本的一點是確保殼牌聚合物莫納卡 (Penn Chem) 工廠使用的 140 億美元左右的資本能夠產生回報。你沒有看到第四季度發生很多事情，你是對的，因為第四季度實際上 - 這些設備在第四季度停機了，因為我們希望在我們準備恢復之前完成裂解裝置本身的所有維護工作第三列火車並修復我們在啟動過程中發現的東西。因此，我認為這些裝置的啟動是在去年年底的 12 月期間，並且已經持續到 1 月期間。正如我之前所說，第三趟列車正在啟動。因此，至少在最初幾週，在我們加大力度之前，不要抱太大希望。

What we have said, and we haven't changed our guidance is that you should expect $1 billion to $1.5 billion of EBITDA from Monaca, when it's up and running, which is not going to be in 2024. It's more likely to be in 2025, 2026, that's when you should expect that. The second key lever that we're using is -- that we're deploying, of course, is the portfolio one. You talked about [Bukom]. I won't address that. That, of course, is bleeding. And therefore, the sooner we can move on that portfolio, [you move] the better.

我們已經說過，而且我們沒有改變我們的指導意見，即當 Monaca 啟動並運行時，您應該期望獲得 10 億至 15 億美元的 EBITDA，這不會是在 2024 年。更有可能是在 2025 年， 2026 年，那是你應該期待的時候。我們正在使用的第二個關鍵槓桿是——當然，我們正在部署的是投資組合。你談到了[Bukom]。我不會解決這個問題。那當然是流血了。因此，我們越早轉移該投資組合，[您轉移]就越好。

We're also looking to high grade our portfolio through something like the recent announcement on Rhineland, where we are shutting down one of the crackers and converting it into a high-quality base oil units that will supply roughly 40% of Germany's needs. So that portfolio transformation is also ongoing.

我們還希望透過萊茵蘭最近的公告來提高我們的投資組合，我們將關閉其中一座裂解裝置，並將其轉化為高品質基礎油裝置，以滿足德國約 40% 的需求。因此，投資組合轉型也持續進行。

And then thirdly, there's a cost component. We just need to get sharper on cost. And so what we're doing there is, for example, reducing our IT spend there as part of a broader corporate focus program on IT, where we have, in essence, reduced some 35% of our IT contractors, some 3,000 people since middle of last year and really getting much sharper on where we want to focus our scarce IT dollars. We have recently announced a significant downsizing of the commercial team in Chemicals down by some 25% headcount. So there's a lot of actions to be able to do what we can control or fix what we can control.

第三，還有成本部分。我們只需要在成本方面更加敏銳。因此，我們正在做的事情是，例如，減少我們在那裡的IT 支出，作為更廣泛的企業IT 重點計劃的一部分，從本質上講，我們已經減少了約35% 的IT 承包商，自中期以來約3,000 人。去年以來，我們對於將稀缺的 IT 資金集中在哪些方面確實變得更加敏銳。我們最近宣布大幅裁員化學品商業團隊，人數減少約 25%。因此，有很多行動可以做我們可以控制的事情或修復我們可以控制的事情。

The margins aren't great. I mean that's obvious, and I don't know how long that lasts. But what we have to be able to do is to do the best that we can within the constraints that we have. And so we are focused on that. We also haven't changed the guidance that against the indicative chemical margin that we presented in Capital Markets Day, we expect to deliver around $3 billion to $4 billion of earnings coming out of the Chemicals and Products portfolio. So that's where we are, and there is no shortage of attention or effort to be able to get this to be the best business that it can be within the constraints of what the business is today, while we continue to look at options to do even better. Sinead, would you have wanted to add anything?

利潤並不大。我的意思是，這是顯而易見的，而且我不知道這種情況會持續多久。但我們要做的就是在有限的範圍內盡我們所能。所以我們專注於此。我們也沒有改變指導，即根據我們在資本市場日提出的指示性化學品利潤率，我們預計化學品和產品組合將帶來約 30 億至 40 億美元的收益。這就是我們所處的位置，並且不乏關注或努力，以便能夠在當今業務的限制範圍內使其成為最好的業務，同時我們繼續尋找甚至可以做的選擇更好的。 Sinead，您想補充什麼嗎？

I think one sentence would be you're completely right. It is loss-making at this point in time. And that's why you can see my confidence and our confidence as we talk about the free cash flow into the future of the company. By stopping that loss-making side of things, by turning it around, by doing the divestments, by getting Monaca up and running, it just gives us that runway, Lucas, into the future in terms of being able to just see that free cash flow growth. I think you've covered it already.

我認為一句話就可以說你是完全正確的。目前該公司處於虧損狀態。這就是為什麼當我們談論公司未來的自由現金流時，你可以看到我的信心和我們的信心。透過阻止事情的虧損面，透過扭轉局面，透過撤資，透過讓 Monaca 啟動並運行，盧卡斯，它只是為我們提供了通往未來的跑道，讓我們能夠看到自由現金流量增長。我想你已經介紹過了。

Thank you very much, Lucas, for the question. Luke, could we go to the next question, please?

非常感謝盧卡斯提出的問題。路克，我們可以進入下一個問題嗎？

Our final caller today is Jeoffrey Lambujon from TPH & Co.

今天我們的最後一位來電者是來自 TPH & Co. 的 Jeoffrey Lambujon。

My first is a follow-up on one of the projects you mentioned earlier, LNG Canada. Could you provide a status update there whether in terms of completion and start-up time lines or however you'd characterize it as you see things today? And then my second question is on the structural cost reductions, which as you mentioned already well in flight following the strong 2023. I know you referenced that this is going to be an ongoing initiative even beyond the 2025 time frame that [bounds] the near-term target. But could you comment on how you're thinking about sources for and time line of deliverability for these reductions over the near term, just at least as far as the visibility that you have and can share?

我的第一個項目是您之前提到的加拿大液化天然氣項目的後續項目。您能否在那裡提供狀態更新，無論是在完成和啟動時間表方面，還是在您今天看到的情況下如何描述它？然後我的第二個問題是關於結構性成本削減，正如您所提到的，在強勁的2023 年之後，結構性成本削減已經在順利進行。我知道您提到，這將是一項持續的舉措，甚至超出2025 年的時間範圍，該時間範圍[限制]近期長期目標。但您能否評論一下您如何考慮近期這些削減的來源和交付時間線，至少就您擁有並可以分享的可見性而言？

Thank you very much, Jeoffrey. I'll take the first one and then let Sinead address the second one. LNG Canada, you'll have -- we also addressed this last year. We have seen, of course, the Coastal GasLink pipeline completed mechanically last year and ready and available to ramp up through the course of 2024. The facility itself at Kitimat is now just over 90% complete as per the report from the joint venture. So they're making good progress. And we would expect that later this year, they would start up the commissioning of the plant. That, of course, takes several months, well into 2025. But it's comforting to see the progress that is being made. And of course, once we start producing those commissioning cargoes will be made available from day one to our foundational customers as you would expect. So pleased with the progress, but this is -- no doubt, this is a very, very complex facility that's going to be ramped up. And therefore, we are going to be -- to watch it and to support the team as they do that through the course of the coming 12 to 18 months.

非常感謝你，傑弗裡。我先解決第一個問題，然後讓西尼德解決第二個問題。加拿大液化天然氣公司，我們去年也解決了這個問題。當然，我們已經看到 Coastal GasLink 管道去年機械完工，並已準備好在 2024 年之前進行擴建。根據合資企業的報告，基蒂馬特的設施本身目前已完成 90% 多一點。所以他們正在取得良好的進展。我們預計今年晚些時候，他們將開始調試工廠。當然，這需要幾個月的時間，直到 2025 年。但看到正在取得的進展令人欣慰。當然，一旦我們開始生產這些調試貨物，將從第一天起就如您所期望的那樣向我們的基礎客戶提供。對進展感到非常滿意，但毫無疑問，這是一個非常非常複雜的設施，將會得到加強。因此，我們將在接下來的 12 到 18 個月內觀察並支持團隊這樣做。

And thanks, Jeoffrey. You asked about OpEx. You heard me talk about how pleased I am in terms of the progress to date, $1 billion after only 7 months. Great progress. We talk about it in terms of where we play and how we play. In terms of where we play, the portfolio moves on the predominance of that at the moment. And you can see, of course, is ramping up with Pakistan coming through, Nigeria coming through and many others that you will see flow through as well. So you'll see some of the OpEx come down.

謝謝，傑弗裡。您詢問了營運支出。你聽到我談到我對迄今為止的進展感到多麼高興，僅 7 個月後就實現了 10 億美元。巨大的進步。我們從比賽地點和比賽方式來討論。就我們的投資方向而言，投資組合目前處於主導地位。當然，你可以看到，隨著巴基斯坦的通過、尼日利亞的通過以及你也會看到的許多其他國家的通過，正在加速發展。所以你會看到一些營運支出下降。

The reason I don't give you timing on that is, of course, it's dependent on approvals and when that will actually occur. So we expect those to happen towards the back end of this year, more than likely 2024. How we play, that's a difficult stuff, that's the bottoms up. Very much in terms of three areas I'd look at, Leaner Corporate Center, Wael already alluded to IT and taking out contingent workers there, but across all of the functions, making sure it's fit for purpose. We, of course, look at it in terms of pacing the growth in terms of our Downstream and res business. Really going after things. Wael talked about Chemicals, et cetera, and the thoughts of taking costs out there. But of course, also, you see it in terms of low carbon fuels where we've got this mixture of actual growth coming through with Nature Energy but of course, moving away from some of the aspects of hydrogen into mobility in California as an example. So you'll see a bit of a mix there.

當然，我不給你時間的原因是，這取決於批准以及何時實際發生。所以我們預計這些會在今年年底發生，更有可能是 2024 年。我們如何打球，這是一件困難的事情，這是自下而上的。就我關注的三個領域而言，精簡企業中心，Wael 已經提到了 IT 並在那裡抽調了臨時工，但在所有職能部門中，確保其符合目的。當然，我們會從調整下游和資源業務的成長速度來看待它。真正追求事物。瓦爾談到了化學品等問題，以及降低成本的想法。但當然，你也可以從低碳燃料的角度來看，我們已經透過自然能源實現了實際成長的混合，但當然，以加州的流動性為例，從氫的某些方面轉向流動性。所以你會看到一些混合的情況。

And finally, we're looking at continued improvement, of course, in our Upstream business, where you see the aspects of going after [hards] where we spend money in terms of maintenance, making sure it's really bang for our buck, et cetera. So those ones you will see come through in the course of the year, but the big meaty ones will be probably towards the end of the year. What I hope you're seeing on all of this is, we've given you a promise in terms of $2 billion to $3 billion. We're already $1 billion through there. So indeed, it's about performance rather than the promises, and we're really continuing to drive that hard.

最後，我們正在尋求持續改進，當然，在我們的上游業務中，你可以看到追求[困難]的方面，我們在維護方面花錢，確保它真正物有所值，等等。所以你會看到那些在一年中完成的，但大的肉可能會在年底。我希望您在這一切中看到的是，我們已經向您承諾了 20 億至 30 億美元。我們已經有 10 億美元了。因此，事實上，這關乎性能而不是承諾，我們確實會繼續努力推動這一點。

That's a great way to end. Jeoffrey, thank you for the questions. And hopefully, the theme of today you would have taken is this is a company that is truly delivering now on its sprint and we are building the track record that we said we want to build. Thank you all for your questions. Thank you for joining the call. Wishing you all a very pleasant end of the week. Thank you for your time.

這是一個很好的結束方式。傑弗裡，謝謝你的提問。希望你們今天的主題是，這是一家真正正在衝刺的公司，我們正在建立我們所說的我們想要建立的業績記錄。謝謝大家的提問。感謝您加入通話。祝大家週末愉快。感謝您的時間。