殼牌 (SHEL) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Shell's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Financial Results Announcement. Shell's CEO, Wael Sawan; and CFO, Sinead Gorman will present the results, then host a Q&A session. (Operator Instructions). We will now begin the presentation.

歡迎閱讀殼牌 2023 年第四季和全年財務表現公告。殼牌執行長 Wael Sawan；和財務長 Sinead Gorman 將介紹結果，然後主持問答環節。 （操作員指令）。我們現在開始演講。

Welcome, everyone. Today, Sinead and I will present to you the 2023 Fourth quarter and Full year results. We had another year of very strong performance, delivering the second highest cash flow from operations in Shell's history despite the external uncertainty and volatility.

歡迎大家。今天，Sinead 和我將向大家介紹 2023 年第四季和全年業績。我們又度過了業績非常強勁的一年，儘管外部存在不確定性和波動性，但殼牌仍然創造了歷史上第二高的營運現金流。

Starting with safety, which remains our top priority. Our personal safety results last year were slightly lower than in 2022, and our teams are determined to make sure 2024 is a year of improvement. I am, however, really pleased that our process safety results set a new record for Shell, confirming our top-tier performance in the industry.

從安全開始，這仍然是我們的首要任務。我們去年的人身安全結果略低於 2022 年，我們的團隊決心確保 2024 年是進步的一年。然而，我真的很高興我們的製程安全結果為殼牌創下了新紀錄，證明了我們在業界的頂級表現。

We are also making good progress across the targets outlined at our Capital Markets Day and expect more to come as we progress through 2024 and beyond. In 2023, we demonstrated our strong commitment to capital discipline by delivering at the lower end of our $23 billion to $27 billion range. In addition, we have already achieved $1 billion in structural cost reductions, well on our way to a reduction of $2 billion to $3 billion by the end of 2025. This reduction is a first step, this is not a one-off change program. We are building the capability to continuously adapt to changes through the energy transition. The reductions will be staggered. The most significant contribution in the short term comes from focusing on where we play, which are essentially portfolio choices. And at the same time, we are emphasizing a bottom-up focus to create a leaner, more agile organization that delivers more value.

我們在實現資本市場日所概述的目標方面也取得了良好的進展，並期望在 2024 年及以後取得更多進展。 2023 年，我們的資本支出控制在 230 億美元至 270 億美元的低位，展現了我們對資本紀律的堅定承諾。此外，我們已經實現了 10 億美元的結構性成本削減，並且預計在 2025 年底前削減 20 億至 30 億美元。這項削減只是第一步，並非一次性的變革計畫。我們正在建立透過能源轉型不斷適應變化的能力。減幅將分階段進行。短期內最重要的貢獻來自於關注我們的行動方向，這本質上是投資組合的選擇。同時，我們強調自下而上的重點，以創造一個更精簡、更敏捷的組織，從而提供更多價值。

We are also leveraging new technologies such as artificial intelligence to improve the performance of our assets. We have millions of sensors collecting over 5 trillion rows of data that our AI models, combined with our conventional models use to monitor equipment 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, alerting engineers to anomalies from a distance. This enables us to intervene and fix issues early, improving our performance, and we continue to high-grade our portfolio and position the company for growth into the future.

我們也利用人工智慧等新技術來提高資產的效能。我們擁有數百萬個感測器，收集超過 5 兆行數據，我們的 AI 模型結合傳統模型使用這些數據每週 7 天、每天 24 小時監控設備，並從遠處向工程師發出異常警報。這使我們能夠儘早幹預和解決問題，提高我們的業績，並繼續提高我們的投資組合質量，為公司未來的成長做好準備。

This past month, we agreed to sell our Nigerian onshore subsidiary, SPDC, subject to government approvals and other conditions. This is an important step for the company, and we hope to complete the deal as soon as is possible.

上個月，我們同意出售我們在尼日利亞的境內子公司 SPDC，但須獲得政府批准並滿足其他條件。這對公司來說是重要的一步，我們希望盡快完成交易。

In 2023, we saw production growth with the startup of a number of key new projects in our advantaged Upstream business. The projects which came on stream this past year at their peak, will add over 200,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day. They are part of our larger funnel set for start-up by 2025. Together at their peak, all projects will add more than 0.5 million barrels of oil equivalent a day to our production. And they will enable us to continue providing the energy security that the world needs while delivering cash flow longevity into the future.

2023年，我們優勢上游業務領域一批重點新專案陸續啟動，產量成長。去年投產的這些項目正值高峰期，每天將增加超過 20 萬桶石油當量。它們是我們計劃於 2025 年啟動的更大專案漏斗的一部分。所有項目加起來，在高峰期將為我們的日產量增加超過 50 萬桶油當量。它們將使我們能夠繼續提供世界所需的能源安全，同時為未來帶來現金流的長久性。

We also continue to invest to help enable the energy transition in areas where we can create value. Last year, we invested $5.6 billion in low carbon energy, such as our Nature Energy acquisition and the CrossWind JV, which will supply renewable power to Holland Hydrogen I, Europe's largest electrolyzer. In short, we're working hard to deliver the energy the world needs today and we're helping to build the energy system of the future.

我們也將繼續投資，幫助實現我們能夠創造價值的領域的能源轉型。去年，我們在低碳能源領域投資了 56 億美元，例如收購 Nature Energy 和成立 CrossWind JV，這將為歐洲最大的電解槽 Holland Hydrogen I 提供再生能源。簡而言之，我們正在努力提供當今世界所需的能源，並幫助建立未來的能源系統。

Our relentless focus on performance, discipline and simplification allowed us to deliver compelling returns and create more value for our shareholders in 2023. Our shareholder distributions for the year were over 42% of our CFFO. And today, we increased our dividend by another 4%, taking our total increase over the last 12 months to around 20%. We continue to progress towards our destination of a net zero emissions business. Our preliminary results show that we have further reduced our Scope 1 and 2 emissions in 2023. We are only halfway through the time line to our 2030 target, yet we have already achieved more than 60% of the reductions needed to reach the target. With that, let's go to Sinead for more financial results.

我們堅持不懈地專注於業績、紀律和簡化，這使我們能夠在 2023 年實現可觀的回報，並為股東創造更多價值。我們當年的股東分配額超過了 CFFO 的 42%。今天，我們又將股利提高了 4%，使過去 12 個月的股利總增幅達到 20% 左右。我們將繼續朝著淨零排放業務的目標邁進。我們的初步結果顯示，我們在 2023 年進一步減少了範圍 1 和範圍 2 的排放量。我們距離 2030 年目標只有一半，但我們已經實現了實現目標所需減量的 60% 以上。有了這些，讓我們去 Sinead 看看更多的財務結果。

Thank you, Wael. We delivered strong results in Q4, driven by our strong trading and optimization in LNG and robust operational performance. One of this quarter's highlights came from QGC Australia. This quarter, they had their highest ever LNG production, which helped deliver Cargo #1000 since startup.

謝謝你，瓦埃爾。由於我們在液化天然氣領域的強勁交易和優化以及強勁的營運業績，我們在第四季度取得了強勁的業績。本季的亮點之一來自 QGC Australia。本季度，他們的液化天然氣產量達到了歷史最高水平，這有助於運送自啟動以來的第 1000 批貨物。

Moving to our financial results. Our adjusted earnings were $7.3 billion for the quarter, and $28.3 billion for the full year. In the fourth quarter, we saw $4 billion in post-tax impairments driven by macro outlook and portfolio choices in line with what we announced at Capital Markets Day. We generated $12.6 billion of cash flow from operations, contributing to a total of $54.2 billion for the full year 2023, our second best year ever. Our strong performance allowed us to return $23 billion to our shareholders, delivering in excess of 30% to 40% CFFO range. And today, we have announced a new $3.5 billion share buyback program, which we expect to complete by the time of our Q1 results announcement in May.

轉向我們的財務表現。本季我們的調整後收益為 73 億美元，全年調整後收益為 283 億美元。第四季度，受宏觀前景和投資組合選擇的影響，我們的稅後減損金額達到 40 億美元，與我們在資本市場日宣布的情況一致。我們產生的營運現金流為 126 億美元，為 2023 年全年貢獻了總計 542 億美元的現金流，這是我們有史以來第二好的年份。我們的強勁表現使我們能夠向股東返還 230 億美元，實現超過 30% 至 40% 的 CFFO 範圍。今天，我們宣布了一項新的 35 億美元股票回購計劃，預計該計劃將於 5 月第一季業績公佈時完成。

We have also announced a dividend increase of 4%, in line with our progressive dividend policy. Our balance sheet remains strong with net debt reducing by $1.3 billion year-on-year. And looking forward in 2024, we will continue to target shareholder distributions of 30% to 40% of our cash flow from operations through the cycle, while maintaining our focus on delivering more value with less emissions. Now I will hand back to Wael for more on what's coming next.

我們也宣布將股利提高 4%，以符合我們的漸進式股利政策。我們的資產負債表依然強勁，淨債務年減 13 億美元。展望 2024 年，我們將繼續致力於在整個週期內將 30% 至 40% 的營運現金流分配給股東，同時繼續致力於以更少的排放創造更多的價值。現在我將把接下來的事情交還給 Wael。

Thank you, Sinead. So this was another year of strong results for Shell, marked by one of our highest ever annual adjusted earnings and cash flow from operations. We achieved this and much more despite volatility in the energy markets. In 2024, we will focus on delivery of our first sprint through performance, discipline and simplification, building on what we have achieved in 2023. By focusing on areas where we have differentiated capabilities and core competencies, we aim to be the investment case through the energy transition.

謝謝你，Sinead。因此，對於殼牌來說，這是另一個業績強勁的一年，其特點是年度調整後收益和經營現金流創下歷史新高。儘管能源市場波動，我們仍然取得了這項成就，甚至取得了更多成就。 2024 年，我們將在 2023 年取得的成就的基礎上，專注於透過績效、紀律和簡化來實現我們的第一個衝刺。透過專注於我們擁有差異化能力和核心競爭力的領域，我們的目標是透過能源轉型成為投資案例。

In the coming weeks, we hope you can join us for our LNG outlook and our annual ESG event, which will also cover the energy transition strategy 2024 publication. Thank you.

在接下來的幾週內，我們希望您能加入我們的 LNG 展望和年度 ESG 活動，該活動還將涵蓋 2024 年能源轉型策略出版物。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Thank you for joining us today. We hope that after watching this presentation, you've seen how we delivered strong results and how we continue to focus on our guiding principles. Today, Sinead and I will be answering your questions. And now please, could we have just one or two questions each so that everyone has the opportunity. And with that, can we have the first question, please, Luke?

感謝您今天加入我們。我們希望，在觀看本次演示後，您能夠看到我們如何取得出色的成果以及我們如何繼續關注我們的指導原則。今天，Sinead 和我將回答你們的問題。現在，請允許我們每人問一兩個問題，以便每個人都有機會。那麼，盧克，我們可以問第一個問題嗎？

Our first caller is Michele Della Vigna from Goldman Sachs.

我們的第一位來電者是高盛的米歇爾·德拉·維尼亞 (Michele Della Vigna)。

I wanted to ask two questions, if I may. The first one, is about your lineup of new projects. You've got one of the strongest pipelines in the industry in Brazil, Gulf of Mexico, LNG Canada, but also with the full restart of Monaca and Prelude. I was wondering if there is a way to guide us on what you think could be the incremental cash flow from these assets by the time they fully ramp up, let's say, by 2025, 2026?

如果可以的話，我想問兩個問題。第一個是關於你們的新項目陣容。你們擁有業內最強大的管道之一，包括巴西管道、墨西哥灣管道、加拿大液化天然氣管道，以及全面重啟的莫納卡管道和 Prelude 管道。我想知道，是否有辦法指導我們，當這些資產全面投入使用時，比如說到 2025 年或 2026 年，您認為這些資產可能產生的增量現金流是多少？

And then my second question is related to the European and the global gas market. We're mostly focused on price upside in the last few years and how to capture it, and Shell has certainly built a very good portfolio for it. But what I was wondering is, in an environment where, especially for the second half of this decade, we could see an oversupplied LNG market that challenges, it beats the arbitrage between the two sides of the Atlantic. Does that change of contracting strategy and how well set up is Shell to effectively successfully navigate what could be a tougher gas market for the coming years?

我的第二個問題與歐洲和全球天然氣市場有關。我們主要關注過去幾年的價格上漲以及如何抓住它，殼牌無疑為此建立了非常好的投資組合。但我想知道的是，在這樣的環境下，特別是在本世紀下半葉，我們可能會看到液化天然氣市場供應過剩，這對大西洋兩岸的套利構成挑戰，甚至可能對其造成不利影響。這是否會改變合約策略？殼牌將如何有效地應對未來幾年可能更加艱難的天然氣市場？

I'll start by asking Sinead to address the first one, and I can take the second one.

我先請 Sinead 回答第一個問題，然後我可以回答第二個問題。

Sure. No, thank you, Michele. And indeed, thank you for the recognition of what is an incredibly strong funnel. Going forward, you listed many of the different projects. So as you say, Gulf of Mexico, LNG Canada, Monaca up and running, Prelude, but let's not forget, as you go past 2025, we have up until '25. We said greater than 500 KBU a day in terms of new projects coming in. And let's remember that we had more than 200 KBU day at the peak, as well mentioned earlier and coming through as well. But beyond that as well, we also have things like Crux coming in, we will have the Qatari volumes, et cetera, coming in. So there's a great wealth coming through.

當然。不，謝謝你，米歇爾。確實，感謝您認識到這是一個非常強大的漏斗。展望未來，您列出了許多不同的項目。所以正如你所說，墨西哥灣、加拿大液化天然氣、莫納卡計畫都已啟動並投入運行，序幕已經開啟，但我們不要忘記，當你度過 2025 年時，我們還有時間到 25 年。我們說每天有超過 500 KBU 的新項目進來。而且，我們還記得，正如之前提到的，我們高峰期每天有超過 200 KBU 的新項目進來，而且現在也有新的項目進來。但除此之外，我們還有 Crux 等公司的進駐，還有卡達公司的進駐，等等。因此，我們將獲得巨大的財富。

Rather than guide to some specific CFFO dependent on price, et cetera, what I suggest as we look at, you saw our promise of 6% growth on free cash flow through and decades of that's sort of number to look at, and you can see we're easily meeting that in terms of our promises so far. And remember, in terms of Sprint 1, very much we're talking about a 10% growth per share. So you can see, of course, that's been easily met at the moment when we're doing things like 6.5% of the company being bought back last year in 2023. So great momentum going forward, Michele, and you're absolutely right. We have a wealth of projects to be delivered.

我的建議是，我們不根據價格等因素來指導某些特定的 CFFO，而是看看我們承諾的 6% 的自由現金流增長率，以及幾十年來值得關注的數字，你可以看到，就我們目前的承諾而言，我們很容易實現這一目標。請記住，就 Sprint 1 而言，我們談論的是每股 10% 的成長率。當然，您可以看到，當我們在 2023 年回購 6.5% 的公司股份時，目前這一目標很容易實現。所以，未來的發展勢頭強勁，米歇爾，您說得完全正確。我們有大量的項目需要交付。

Thanks, Sinead. And Michele, to your second point, I think if I start just by reemphasizing our conviction in the growing demand for LNG going into the future, I think, underpinned both by call it, energy security considerations in a place like Europe, but also in Asia, continuing to see very strong demand as well as to replace the declining domestic gas in several countries in Vietnam, for example, the Philippines and others have become recently importers of LNG as well. So there's quite a lot of latent demand. And I think what you will find is that as the price, as is happening at the moment, starts to stabilize again and the market fundamentals reassert themselves, you will see a lot of that latent demand starting to come back to the market. So I think that in the first instance, just gives a lot of confidence around the demand profile going forward.

謝謝，Sinead。米歇爾，關於你的第二點，我想如果我首先再次強調我們對未來液化天然氣需求不斷增長的信心，我認為這不僅是出於歐洲等地對能源安全的考慮，而且在亞洲，液化天然氣的需求將繼續保持強勁，以取代越南等幾個國家日益減少的國內天然氣，例如，菲律賓和其他國家最近也成為了液化天然氣的進口國。因此，潛在需求相當大。我認為你會發現，隨著價格（如目前的情況）開始再次穩定下來，市場基本面重新顯現，你會看到大量潛在需求開始重返市場。因此，我認為，首先，這給未來的需求狀況帶來了極大的信心。

On the supply side, for the next year or so, there's very little in terms of new capacity coming in. But indeed, you see that stepping up both on the American and the Qatari side predominantly into the second half of the decade. As Shell, as you know very well, Michele of course, we play across the commodity exposures. And so for us, it's the ability to be able to pick up from Henry Hub and to be able to be exposed to Brent or indeed across TTF and JKM and others. And so it is no bad thing to have a period of time with more supply coming into the market because it allows us to contract on the side of offtake agreements, which we have done in the past. And so we're not looking to bet on one period or the next. What we are looking to do is to continue to build an advantaged portfolio that allows us to take advantage of those cross commodity exposures. And that has been the power of this LNG business for us and will continue to be.

從供應方面來看，未來一年左右，新增產能將非常有限。但事實上，你會看到，美國和卡達的產能將在2020年下半年顯著增加。米歇爾，正如您所知，作為殼牌，我們涉足大宗商品領域。因此，對我們來說，這意味著能夠從亨利港獲取信息，並能夠接觸布倫特原油，或實際上接觸 TTF、JKM 和其他原油。因此，在一段時間內有更多的供應進入市場並不是壞事，因為它使我們能夠簽訂承購協議，就像我們過去所做的那樣。因此，我們不會押注某個時期或下一個時期。我們希望繼續建立一個優勢投資組合，以便我們能夠利用這些跨商品敞口。這一直是我們液化天然氣業務的力量所在，並將繼續如此。

Thank you for the questions. Luke, if I can go to the next question, please.

謝謝您的提問。盧克，請問我可以進入下一個問題嗎？

Our next caller is Biraj Borkhataria from RBC.

我們的下一個來電者是來自 RBC 的 Biraj Borkhataria。

The first one is on the dividend. And I guess you've raised your dividend 2x in 2Q and then 4Q. I'm trying to understand what the cycle is from here going forward. I guess, if I think about the two reasons you'd raised the dividend, one is the underlying growth in the business and then there's a share count reduction from the buyback. So should we assume you do it once a year and combine both into one going forward? And the reason I ask is because typically predictability is quite important there.

第一個是關於股息。我猜你們在第二季和第四季將股息提高了 2 倍。我試著去了解從現在開始的循環是怎麼樣的。我想，如果我考慮一下你提高股利的兩個原因，一是業務的潛在成長，二是回購導致的股票數量減少。那麼我們是否應該假設您每年執行一次並將兩者合併為一次？我之所以問這個問題是因為可預測性通常非常重要。

And then the second question is just on the Venture Global issues. This has been ongoing for a few months now. We don't really have clarity on the sort of process or the timing and so on. So obviously, seen the letters flying around between the various parties and indeed, anyone who's looked at the export data can see that the project has been actually much more reliable than other projects. And if you think about the [arbs] between U.S. and Europe on the [Gazprom] over the last 2 years, you could be talking about multibillions in lost earnings for Shell. So it seems like a strong stance that you have. I understand this is a legal process, but can you talk about what happens from here process-wise and then the potential outcomes thereafter?

第二個問題是關於 Venture Global 的問題。這種情況已經持續了幾個月了。我們確實不清楚具體流程、時間安排等等。顯然，看到各方之間來往的信件，事實上，任何看過出口數據的人都可以看出，該項目實際上比其他項目可靠得多。如果你考慮過去兩年美國和歐洲在俄羅斯天然氣工業股份公司問題上的套利，你可能會發現殼牌公司損失了數十億美元的利潤。看來你的立場很堅定。我知道這是一個法律程序，但您能談談接下來的流程以及可能出現的結果嗎？

Great. Thank you for the questions, Biraj. Let me start with the second one and then go to Sinead on the dividend. I think you characterized the issue well. I mean as far as I see at the moment in terms of what is publicly available, Venture Global have, I think, sold around 250 cargo, so far, 250 commissioning cargoes. And what we see is that the plant is at or near capacity and has been consistently. So we're very much focused on continuing to enforce our legal rights and protect the sanctity of contracts that are there.

偉大的。謝謝你的提問，Biraj。讓我先談第二個問題，然後再談關於股息的問題。我認為你對這個問題的描述很準確。我的意思是，就我目前所看到的公開資訊而言，Venture Global 迄今已售出約 250 批貨物，即 250 批委託貨物。我們看到的是，該工廠一直處於滿載或接近滿載狀態。因此，我們非常注重繼續執行我們的合法權利並保護現有合約的神聖性。

I won't get into the details of the legal proceedings. Suffice it to say that we have pulled on the lever of arbitration that exists for us and continue to have the required discussions to be able to fundamentally point out that this is not just an issue between two counterparts. Actually, it's many counterparts, all of whom are not receiving the offtake commitments that Venture Global had committed to. But also it starts to undermine the confidence in U.S. LNG for the longer term, something which, of course, with the recent announcement of the pause by the government, by the U.S. administration, just continue all to erode that confidence in the longer-term potential of U.S. LNG, which is a real shame, I think, given the potential it has. Let me pause there and maybe ask Sinead to cover the dividends.

我不會談論法律訴訟的細節。可以說，我們已經啟動了現有的仲裁機制，並繼續進行必要的討論，以便從根本上指出這不僅僅是兩個對手之間的問題。事實上，有很多同行，他們都沒有獲得 Venture Global 承諾的承購承諾。但它也開始削弱人們對美國液化天然氣的長期信心，當然，隨著美國政府最近宣布暫停液化天然氣項目，這一切都繼續削弱人們對美國液化天然氣長期潛力的信心，我認為這實在令人遺憾，因為它具有巨大的潛力。讓我在這裡暫停一下，也許可以請 Sinead 來支付股息。

Indeed. Thank you, Biraj. And indeed, we're very much focused on ensuring we have a compelling distribution to our shareholders. And actually, you saw, of course, in 2023, some [$23 billion] of distributions back. But you raised the point that we did [2] and actually increased our dividend by approximately 20% last year, what you've seen this quarter is 4%. And of course, many of you asked during Capital Markets Day last year, would we do something further? Would we do a bigger hike at this time of year? And we were very clear, no. We were very clear, we will say what -- we will do what we will say. And in effect, what we told you that time was 4% progressive and that we'd be very much focused on buybacks. And that's pure and simple just a preference towards buybacks, as you know, because of the value lens just given where they are in terms of price, number one. And secondly, of course, we've set the targets out there to say it is creating per share value. So that's where we're focused as well. So that should help with predictability. And if you look at the buyback range, it's been pretty predictable over the last couple of quarters. So what you should expect from us is if we're going to say something, we will do it thereafter. So I hope that helps.

的確。謝謝你，比拉傑。事實上，我們非常注重確保向股東提供有吸引力的分配。實際上，您當然會看到，在 2023 年，一些 [230 億美元] 的分配又回來了。但您提出的觀點是，我們確實[2]將股息在去年提高了約 20%，而本季度的股息提高了 4%。當然，去年資本市場日期間，許多人問過我們是否會採取進一步行動？我們會在每年的這個時候進行更大規模的健行嗎？我們非常清楚，不是的。我們非常清楚，我們會說什麼，我們會做到我們所說的。實際上，我們當時告訴你們的是 4% 的累進利率，而且我們會非常注重回購。這純粹只是一種對回購的偏好，正如你所知，因為從價值角度來看，它們的價格是第一位的。其次，當然，我們已經設定了目標，就是創造每股價值。這也是我們關注的重點。這有助於提高可預測性。如果你看一下回購範圍，你會發現過去幾季的回購範圍是相當可預測的。所以你應該期待我們做的是，如果我們要說什麼，我們就會做什麼。我希望這會有所幫助。

Thanks, Sinead. And thank you for the questions, Biraj. If we can go to the next question, please, Luke.

謝謝，Sinead。感謝您的提問，Biraj。路克，我們可以進入下一個問題嗎？

Our next caller is Oswald Clint from Bernstein.

我們的下一個來電者是伯恩斯坦的奧斯瓦爾德·克林特。

Yes, the first one, just on the slides, some good slides there on progress relative to last year's targets on the free cash flow growth. You have the 6% up to 2013 to 10%. You've priced normalized those, which is helpful, but I think you've removed the numbers from the y-axis. We're playing around with it, and it looks like over $25 billion price normalized last year, which I guess is the target for next year. So the question is, are you surprised by this free cash flow delivery? Was an expectation that might be front-end loaded? Certainly feels like the 2025 target is well underpinned at this stage.

是的，第一個，就在幻燈片上，有一些很好的幻燈片，展示了相對於去年自由現金流成長目標的進展。到 2013 年，這一比例將達到 6% 至 10%。您已對這些進行了標準化定價，這很有幫助，但我認為您已從 y 軸中刪除了這些數字。我們正在研究這個問題，看起來去年正常價格超過 250 億美元，我猜這是明年的目標。所以問題是，你對這種自由現金流交付感到驚訝嗎？是否可能存在前端加載的期望？確實感覺 2025 年的目標在現階段已經得到了很好的支撐。

And then secondly, just on Integrated Gas and LNG, again, probably more 2024 focus, if I could. I mean, the East West spread could be a bit tighter this year. But now we have the Red Sea logistical risks just on top of this. So could I just get your outlook around business expectations in IG this year, especially with rerouting transportation OpEx or does your portfolio size help mitigate against this? Can you pass on some of these costs? Just how should investors think about this particular issue?

其次，僅就綜合天然氣和液化天然氣而言，如果可以的話，我可能會更關注 2024 年。我的意思是，今年東西方之間的差距可能會更小一些。但現在我們又面臨紅海物流風險。那麼，我能否了解一下您對今年 IG 業務預期的展望，尤其是重新規劃運輸營運支出，或者您的投資組合規模是否有助於緩解這種影響？您能轉嫁部分成本嗎？投資人究竟該如何看待這個特定問題？

Do you want to take the first one? I can take the second one.

你想拿第一個嗎？我可以拿第二個。

Yes. No, indeed. And thanks, Oswald. Yes, you're right. We did actually remove the numbers very much conscious of doing so. Largely, you're right, we're exceeding where we expect it to be at this point. There's a lot of noise in there. As you can imagine, it's the typical normalization that one needs to do for working capital, et cetera. But yes, true delivery in there is mostly from a range of things. It's, of course, the CapEx reductions that have come through, it's some OpEx coming through and of course, share count reduction. But let's not forget some of the growth that's actually coming through as well.

是的。不，確實如此。謝謝你，奧斯華。是的，你說得對。我們確實非常有意識地刪除了這些數字。整體來說，您說得對，我們目前的成績已經超出了我們的預期。那裡很吵。你可以想像，這是營運資金等需要做的典型規範化。但是是的，真正的交付主要來自一系列的事情。當然，這是資本支出的減少，這是營運支出的減少，當然還有股份數量的減少。但我們不要忘記實際上也正在出現的一些成長。

You saw us bring new volumes on this year as well, the Timi, the Vitos of this world, of course, Pierce redevelopment coming. And you can see that future build as well with the FIDs of Perdido 2, [Victory] coming through, just a range of them are coming Sparta as well. So indeed, do I have confidence in terms of delivery? Yes, at the moment and looking forward to driving it even further in terms of the things that we can control in terms of taking out OpEx, et cetera, as we continue to deliver what we promised.

您會看到我們今年也推出了新品，包括 Timi、Vitos，當然還有即將推出的 Pierce 重建項目。您還可以看到未來的建設，Perdido 2 的 FID、[Victory] ​​即將完成，其中一部分也將與 Sparta 一起完成。那麼，我對交付確實有信心嗎？是的，目前我們期待在能夠控制的事情方面取得更大進步，例如降低營運支出等等，同時我們將繼續兌現我們的承諾。

I think on your second or your first -- sorry, second question there, Oswald, just where the LNG markets are, in particular, in the context of the Red Se?, By and large, we are not seeing massive amounts of disruption yet to LNG flows because of the reality that in particular with a portfolio like ours that's blessed with supply points on either side of the Red Sea as well as on demand points, we are able to optimize and do swaps across the portfolio, which, of course, has always been our strength. We can truly through our trading and optimization organization create value from discontinuities. But maybe I won't project into the rest of the year. I think suffice it to say that Q4 was a very, very strong quarter for us on trading and optimization in the LNG space, particularly because of the opening up of the [arbs] across East West as well as the fact that, as you know, we typically have length this season, in the northern hemisphere season.

我認為關於您的第二或第一個問題——抱歉，第二個問題，奧斯瓦爾德，液化天然氣市場究竟在哪裡，特別是在紅海的背景下？總的來說，我們還沒有看到液化天然氣流動受到大規模幹擾，因為現實情況是，特別是像我們這樣的投資組合，在紅海兩岸都有供應點，也有需求點，我們能夠優化和進行整個投資組合的掉期，當然，這一直是我們的優勢。我們可以透過我們的交易和優化組織真正從不連續性中創造價值。但也許我不會將其投射到今年剩餘的時間。我認為可以說，第四季度對於我們在液化天然氣領域的交易和優化而言是一個非常強勁的季度，特別是因為東西方開放了套利交易，而且正如你所知，我們這個季節，也就是北半球的季節，通常都有較長的時間。

Now those arbs have compressed since the start of the year. The absolute prices of gas are lower at the moment. And so the question will be how much more volatility we will see, whether triggered by geopolitical considerations, higher-than-predicted demand in China, all of that will be an important determinant of where the LNG and the IG business particularly performs. But I think it's always fair to say we have good production at the moment. We're pleased with where Prelude is at after the turnaround. We're pleased with the progress we're making in Trinidad and Tobago, pleased with the progress we're making in Nigeria and so the fundamentals around the focus on performance, discipline and simplification are coming through. And now we'll need to see where the market goes to allow us to create the value we would hope to create from that market.

自今年年初以來，這些套利活動已經縮減。目前天然氣的絕對價格較低。因此，問題在於我們將看到多大的波動，無論是由於地緣政治因素，還是由於中國的需求高於預期，所有這些都將是決定液化天然氣和中質天然氣業務表現的重要因素。但我認為，公平地說，我們目前的產量很好。我們對 Prelude 轉型後的狀況感到滿意。我們對在特立尼達和多巴哥取得的進展感到滿意，對在尼日利亞取得的進展感到滿意，因此，關注績效、紀律和簡化的基本原則正在得到貫徹。現在我們需要了解市場走向，以便我們能夠創造我們希望從該市場中創造的價值。

Thank you for the questions. If we can go to the next question please, Luke.

謝謝您的提問。路克，我們可以進入下一個問題嗎？

Our next caller is Alastair Syme from Citi.

我們的下一位來電者是花旗銀行的 Alastair Syme。

Well, Sinead, you've spend in the res -- steps up quite considerably in '24. I mean it's certainly in line with what you said at the June CMD. I know you've got some strict returns criteria in this business. So the question is really as you scale up the spend, how you're finding the headroom versus those hurdle rates and certainly doesn't feel to me as if it's getting less competitive, but maybe you've got a different perspective.

好吧，Sinead，你在 24 年在 res 上的投入已經相當可觀了。我的意思是，這肯定與您在 6 月 CMD 上所說的一致。我知道你們在這個行業裡有一些嚴格的回報標準。所以問題實際上是，當你增加支出時，你如何找到與那些最低收益率相比的淨空，當然我並不覺得競爭力在下降，但也許你有不同的看法。

And then secondly, look, I won't disappoint you Wael, congratulations on turning the corner on reserves in the last two years. I know Qatar has been a big part of that, perhaps as much as half. And while the financial terms there look pretty good, it is also, to some extent, an unusual almost one-off situation. So my question to you is how do you think about the underlying picture? And how would you think about the GAAP analysis sort of over the next 5 years, presuming you don't get another opportunity like Qatar?

其次，看，我不會讓你失望的，瓦伊爾，祝賀你在過去兩年裡在儲備方面取得了突破。我知道卡達在其中發揮了重要作用，或許佔了一半。儘管那裡的財務條款看起來相當不錯，但在某種程度上，這也是一種不尋常的、幾乎是一次性的情況。所以我想問您，您如何看待潛在的情況？假設您沒有得到像卡達這樣的機會，您會如何看待未來 5 年的 GAAP 分析？

Thank you, Alastair. Did you want to take the first one?

謝謝你，阿拉斯泰爾。你想拿第一個嗎？

Sure. In terms of res, I think it's a great question, Alastair. We've all seen many, many discussions in a variety of media and otherwise around the returns that are available in this space. I think what I'd say is we're being very disciplined around it. So what you're seeing is between 2023 and 2022, you will have seen effectively that our CapEx did go down in terms of res spend, but it was varied. So remember, it differs depending on which region you're talking about specifically. So we can't make it a binary conversation.

當然。就 res 而言，我認為這是一個很好的問題，阿拉斯泰爾。我們在各種媒體和其他媒體上都看到很多有關該領域可獲得的回報的討論。我想說的是，我們對此非常嚴謹。因此，您會看到，在 2023 年至 2022 年之間，我們的資本支出確實有所下降，但幅度有所不同。所以請記住，這取決於您具體談論的地區。所以我們不能把它變成二元對話。

So what we're saying as we walk away from things where we just don't see the necessary returns. So the last German wind auction that we discussed previously, we just couldn't get there at the end of the day. Whereas in Australia, really seeing some decent returns coming through, and that's really where we have an integrated value chain. So we're being able to see the side of things where we have the demand in our own assets, we also have the customer book, but also we have battery power as well. So between all of the different elements with the renewables, we're able to see an end-to-end just significant return coming through.

所以，當我們放棄那些看不到必要回報的事情時，我們就會這麼說。因此，我們之前討論過的最後一次德國風能拍賣最終未能舉行。而在澳大利亞，我們確實看到了一些不錯的回報，而這正是我們擁有一體化價值鏈的地方。因此，我們能夠看到事物的一面，我們對自己的資產有需求，我們也有客戶書籍，而且我們也有電池電量。因此，在再生能源的所有不同要素之間，我們能夠看到端到端的顯著回報。

But this is about remaining disciplined, and we will be very, very focused on that. So very much ensuring that can we hit the hurdle rates? Do we believe we bring something different? And what's our confidence level in doing so?

但這是為了保持紀律，我們將非常非常專注於這一點。那麼，我們能否確保達到最低收益率？我們是否相信我們會帶來一些不同的東西？我們對此的信心程度如何？

Thanks, Sinead. Alastair, your question around resources, I think, the discussions you and I have also had in the past. I mean, in my mind, resources are ultimately a proxy for cash flow. And that's where our focus is. The quality of the resources rather than does it sit under the 1P or 2P. We still have a very attractive funnel of resources, as indicated by 20-plus years of commercial resource. By the way, that is even post an SPDC sale in Nigeria as well. So we will continue to have north of 20 years of commercial resource.

謝謝，Sinead。阿拉斯泰爾，關於資源的問題，我想，我們過去也曾經進行過討論。我的意思是，在我看來，資源最終是現金流的代表。這正是我們的重點。資源的品質而不是它是否屬於 1P 或 2P。我們仍然擁有非常有吸引力的資源管道，20多年的商業資源累積證明了這一點。順便說一句，這甚至是在尼日利亞 SPDC 出售之後發生的。因此我們將繼續擁有超過20年的商業資源。

And what's critical is it's high-quality barrels. You are talking predominantly deepwater barrels, predominantly LNG barrels. And what gives me particular confidence in the coming years is you're talking about some very attractive high-margin projects coming in. You have, for example, Mero-2 that just started up in Brazil at the turn of the year. You have Mero-3 coming through, Mero-4. We have Gato do Mato after that. Vito is up and running and delivering within the first year, top quartile schedule, top quartile availability. We have then Whale coming after that, Sparta coming on top of that even before you go into the Qatari project. And then, of course, you have LNG Canada that is also sort of making good progress. In LNG Canada, while it does not have a lot of, if any, bookable reserves, you can imagine how much value that is going to create.

而至關重要的是它的桶子是高品質的。您談論的主要是深水桶，主要是液化天然氣桶。讓我對未來幾年充滿信心的是，您談到了一些非常有吸引力的高利潤項目。例如，今年年初剛在巴西啟動的 Mero-2 計畫。你有 Mero-3、Mero-4 通過。之後我們有 Gato do Mato。 Vito 已投入運作並在第一年內交付，進度和可用性均達到最高四分位數。在我們進入卡達計畫之前，我們先推出了 Whale 項目，然後又推出了 Sparta 項目。當然，加拿大液化天然氣公司也取得了良好的進展。在加拿大液化天然氣公司，雖然可預訂的儲量並不多（如果有的話），但你可以想像它將創造多少價值。

So we continue to be very, very focused on the overall cash flow potential of this company. And as indicated by our confidence, giving a 6% per annum free cash flow growth between now and 2030, you can see the confidence that we have going through that. Of course, from now to then, we will continue to look at the right opportunities to be able to both hopefully, discover resources, to acquire the right resources or within the capital discipline that we have outlined, which is the $22 billion to $25 billion over the next two years.

因此，我們繼續非常關注該公司的整體現金流潛力。正如我們的信心所表明的那樣，假設從現在到 2030 年，每年的自由現金流增長率為 6%，你就能看出我們對實現這一目標的信心。當然，從現在到那時，我們將繼續尋找合適的機會，希望能夠發現資源，獲取合適的資源，或在我們概述的資本限制範圍內，即未來兩年的 220 億美元至 250 億美元。

I think that's all I wanted to cover. Maybe -- thank you for the question, Alastair. Maybe Luke, we can go to the next one, please.

我想這就是我想要講的全部內容。也許——謝謝你的提問，阿拉斯泰爾。也許盧克，我們可以進入下一個。

Our next call is Irene Himona from Societe Generale.

我們接下來致電的是法國興業銀行的艾琳希莫娜 (Irene Himona)。

My first question is really one of clarification where you indicated that with your forthcoming annual ESG event next month, you intend to cover the energy transition strategy. But last year's CMD, obviously, you retired all the many operational targets relating to that transition. So we kind of lost visibility on what the path looks like. Can we expect you will restore that visibility at this ESG Day, please? And will present the new sort of longer-term transition strategy?

我的第一個問題實際上是一個澄清問題，您曾表示，在下個月即將舉行的年度 ESG 活動中，您打算討論能源轉型策略。但去年的 CMD，顯然，你取消了與該過渡相關的所有營運目標。因此，我們有點看不清這條路是什麼樣子的。我們能否期待您在本次 ESG 日恢復這種知名度？並將提出新的長期轉型策略？

And then my second question, a quick one on Q4 cash flows. Very, very strong EBITDA, and then you had a [$1 billion] charge for derivatives and a larger [$1.6 billion] charge for other. I think that may refer to these biofuel certificates. But can you perhaps remind us briefly how that works? And is there any guidance you can give us directionally for that going forward?

我的第二個問題是關於第四季現金流的。 EBITDA 非常非常強勁，然後你對衍生品收取了 [10 億美元] 費用，對其他產品收取了更大額度的 [16 億美元] 費用。我認為這可能指的是這些生物燃料證書。但您能否簡單提醒我們這是如何運作的？您能為我們提供一些未來的指導嗎？

Well, I'd love to have taken the second one. I will leave that to you, Sinead in a moment. Let me maybe, Irene, cover your first one, where -- if you allow me just a moment to reframe it. What we will be announcing in March is, in essence, the second leg of what we announced in Capital Markets Day 2023 in June. It's one strategy, we focused a lot more on the more value side of it in June, and we will focus a bit more on the -- with less emissions when it comes to March.

嗯，我很想選第二個。一會兒我將把這個留給你，Sinead。艾琳，也許讓我來談談你的第一個問題，如果你允許我花一點時間來重新構思它。我們將在 3 月宣布的消息，實際上是我們在 6 月 2023 年資本市場日宣布的消息的第二部分。這是一種策略，我們在六月更加重視價值方面，而到了三月份，我們將更加重視減少排放。

The retirement of a number of targets was not to create lack of transparency, but really was an intent as we look to transform Shell into the company we wanted to be to focus on the key targets that matter. Both the financial targets as well as the carbon targets that you will have seen when we announced them in Capital Markets Day. And so what you should expect coming in March is real clarity on what are the areas that we will continue to go forward with, not a whole bunch of new targets. And that is not the intent here. But the intent is to get clear on where we see value opportunities back to the question that was asked earlier around where we see, I think, it was by Alastair, opportunities for investment for our low carbon spend, of which we invested $5.6 billion last year. We want to be very clear on where we see those value pools emerging, where we have particular strength to be able to compete, where we see customer demand evolving in a positive way. And where do we see regulatory support that enables the overall investment to create the value that our shareholders expect. So expect more of that rather than a whole set of new targets. In our annual reports, you will always be updated on the progress that we are making towards the ambitions that we have set for ourselves. Sinead?

取消一些目標並非是為了降低透明度，而是為了將殼牌轉變為我們想要成為的公司，專注於重要的關鍵目標。我們在資本市場日宣布的財務目標和碳排放目標您都會看到。因此，三月我們應該真正明確我們將繼續推進的領域，而不是一大堆新目標。但這並不是本文的意圖。但我們的目的是要明確我們在哪裡看到了價值機會，回到先前提出的問題，我認為是阿拉斯泰爾提出的，我們在哪裡看到了低碳支出的投資機會，去年我們投資了 56 億美元。我們希望非常清楚地了解這些價值池在哪裡出現，我們在哪裡擁有特別的競爭優勢，以及我們看到客戶需求在哪裡以積極的方式發展。我們在哪裡看到監管支持使整體投資能夠創造出股東期望的價值。因此，我們期待的是更多這樣的目標，而不是一整套新的目標。在我們的年度報告中，您將始終了解我們在實現自己設定的目標方面所取得的進展。西妮德？

Indeed. And thanks, Irene. So basically, what you're asking is in terms of the cash flow from operations, excluding working capital, that's really where the question is going, what's unusual? So when you look at it the way I always try and separate it is what is Q4 specific and what is simply not. So that you can see the growth coming through. When I look at it in terms of what is Q4 specific in terms of excluding working capital, it really comes down to just a number of things. It's really about timing. So this is around the German emission certificates that come through and the U.S. biofuels program that we're part of. Those two things happen every Q4, and you see them coming through. And that combined with the extra tax that we pay, pure and simple. In Q4, it's phasing of a tax payment. And of course, given how much profit we made, we had extra taxes that came through. Those three things together actually come to about [$1.5 billion]. So you see that hit coming through in Q4, which is unusual to us.

的確。謝謝你，艾琳。所以基本上，你問的是經營活動產生的現金流，不包括營運資金，這才是真正的問題所在，有什麼不尋常的？因此，當您以我總是嘗試的方式看待它時，它會區分哪些是 Q4 特有的，哪些不是。這樣你就能看到成長的跡象。當我從不包括營運資金的第四季度具體情況的角度來看時，它實際上歸結為一些事情。這確實與時機有關。因此，這是圍繞德國排放證書和我們參與的美國生物燃料計劃進行的。這兩件事在每個第四季都會發生，你會看到它們的實現。再加上我們繳的額外稅款，就這麼簡單。在第四季度，我們正在分階段繳稅。當然，考慮到我們賺取的利潤，我們還需要繳納額外的稅金。這三項加起來實際上價值約 15 億美元。因此，您會看到第四季度出現這種衝擊，這對我們來說是不尋常的。

Then in terms of things that are not Q4 specific, what I would sort of direct your attention to is it's really related to price moves, that's twofold. One is [Cosan], the cost of supply adjustment. It's really just crude prices going down. And the second one is derivatives as you rightly pointed out, and that's around about [$1.1 billion]. So those two combined are just over [$ 2 billion]. So going back to that, you saw $1.5 billion that is Q4-specific. It's really around timing. And the second bit is really price related. So I hope that gives clarity.

那麼就第四季度以外的事情而言，我想請大家注意的是，它實際上與價格變動有關，這是雙重的。一個是[Cosan]，即供應成本調整。這其實只是原油價格下跌。第二個是衍生品，正如您正確指出的那樣，約為 11 億美元。因此，這兩項加起來剛好超過 [20 億美元]。回顧這一點，您會看到第四季特有的 15 億美元。這確實與時機有關。第二點確實與價格有關。我希望這能讓人清楚明白。

Thank you, Sinead. Irene, thank you for the questions. Luke, can we go to the next one, please?

謝謝你，Sinead。艾琳，謝謝你的提問。路克，我們可以進入下一個嗎？

Our next caller is Peter Low from Redburn Atlantic.

我們的下一位來電者是來自 Redburn Atlantic 的 Peter Low。

I had a question on disposals. You announced Nigeria just this month that you've been linked to several other potential divestments in the press and you also said you're looking to kind of exit your Singapore chemical refining asset. Can you perhaps [sort of update] on how that program is progressing and perhaps how large disposal proceeds could be kind of this year and in the coming years?

我有一個關於處置的問題。您本月剛在奈及利亞宣布，媒體通報您與其他幾項潛在的資產剝離交易有關，您也表示，您正在尋求退出新加坡化學精煉資產。您能否更新一下該計劃的進展情況，以及今年和未來幾年的處置收益可能有多少？

And then the second question was on inflation. In your kind of cost reduction slides, you show that actually kind of inflation has contributed to an increase in costs in 2023. I was just interested where in the business that's coming through and sort of what level of inflation you're currently seeing and planning for?

第二個問題是關於通貨膨脹。在您的成本削減幻燈片中，您表明通貨膨脹實際上導致了 2023 年成本的增加。我只是感興趣的是，業務中哪些部分正在經歷通貨膨脹，以及您目前看到併計劃應對的通貨膨脹水平是怎樣的？

You want to take both?

你想兩者皆用嗎？

Sure. In terms of divestments, you mentioned specifically SPDC and Singapore. SPDC is a great step forward, gaining momentum. I'm very, very pleased to see that as an outcome. That will happen in the course of this year. We have -- waiting for those approvals, et cetera. You'll also have seen, we announced at the time that approximately all of the proceeds that came with it, so I'll leave the detail there because there's some financing in it as well. And in terms of Singapore, which is really the refinery, Bukom and Jurong, the refining and chemicals plant together, we've confirmed that we are divesting and we're progressing through that. So I'm hopeful to be able to update you later in the year on that, Peter. In terms of the proceeds, of course, I wouldn't talk about commercial at this point, but both of them are more about ensuring that it fits our strategy rather than significant cash flows coming in from divestments. So that gives you a bit of an indication.

當然。在撤資方面，您特別提到了 SPDC 和新加坡。 SPDC 向前邁出了一大步，並且發展勢頭強勁。我非常非常高興看到這樣的結果。這將在今年內實現。我們正在等待這些批准等等。您還會看到，我們當時宣布了幾​​乎所有隨之而來的收益，所以我將在那裡保留細節，因為其中也有一些融資。就新加坡而言，我們已確認將剝離位於毛廣和裕廊的煉油廠和化工廠，並且正在推進這項工作。因此我希望能夠在今年稍後向您通報這一情況，彼得。當然，就收益而言，我現在不會談論商業，但它們更多的是為了確保它符合我們的策略，而不是從資產剝離中獲得大量現金流。這給了你一點提示。

Secondly, in terms of inflation, yes, I'm glad you picked that up. If you look at our OpEx, what you actually see this year is actually that the OpEx year-on-year has come down. We're really pleased to see that because what that means is not only do we deliver the $1 billion of structural savings that we discussed and that we promised [on our route to] $2 billion to $3 billion. But more importantly, what we also did was we [ate] inflation and we managed to cover acquisitions coming in. And there were quite a few of those with Nature Energy with Volta and many other things, including new production, which drives cash flow as well. So significant performance by the business, which is pleasing to see.

其次，就通貨膨脹而言，是的，我很高興你提出了這個問題。如果你看一下我們的營運支出，你實際上會看到今年的營運支出比去年同期實際上有所下降。我們真的很高興看到這一點，因為這意味著我們不僅實現了我們討論過的 10 億美元的結構性節約，而且實現了我們承諾的 20 億至 30 億美元的節約。但更重要的是，我們也做到了（承受）通貨膨脹，並設法彌補即將到來的收購。其中包括對 Nature Energy 和 Volta 的收購，以及許多其他收購，包括新產品的收購，這些也推動了現金流。業務表現如此出色，令人欣喜。

What are we seeing on inflation? It is considerable. We're beginning to see that come down. Of course, as you go into 2024, our own view on that is specifically that will probably be between 3% and 7%, roughly speaking. But the way we structure our company we're very much comfortable that we will be able to try and absorb that with our contracts and the variety of things we'll do. We'll see how it plays out in the year. It's very much sticky in certain areas rather than others. Where do we see it specifically, Peter? We're seeing it more in some of the electrical installations and some of the fabrication areas specifically, and of course, res without a doubt the renewable space is there. But that gives you a bit of a feel. I think fundamentally, the message to take away is that we've done exactly what we said. We've been able to deliver the structural savings, be able to eat inflation and be able to absorb new production coming in or acquisitions coming in.

我們看到的通貨膨脹情況如何？這是相當可觀的。我們開始看到這一情況下降。當然，進入 2024 年，我們對此的看法是，具體來說，成長率大概會在 3% 到 7% 之間。但是，我們非常樂意按照我們公司的結構方式，透過我們的合約和我們將要做的各種事情來嘗試和吸收這些。我們將拭目以待今年的情況如何。在某些區域，它的黏性比在其他區域要強。彼得，我們具體在哪裡看到它？我們在一些電氣裝置和一些製造領域中更多地看到了這一點，當然，毫無疑問可再生空間就在那裡。但這給你一點感覺。我認為從根本上來說，我們要傳達的訊息是我們已經完全按照我們所說的做了。我們已經能夠實現結構性儲蓄，能夠承受通貨膨脹，並且能夠吸收新的生產或收購。

Thanks, Sinead, and thank you, Peter, for the questions. Luke, can we have the next question please?

謝謝 Sinead，也謝謝 Peter 提出的問題。路克，我們可以問下一個問題嗎？

Our next call is Giacomo Romeo from Jefferies.

我們接下來致電的是 Jefferies 的 Giacomo Romeo。

Yes. First question is on your payout level in 2023, which came above the upper end of the 30% to 40% range. I'm just trying to frame please and understand sort of what's your approach? And are we allowed to talk about 40% as a soft ceiling like we used to with the previous range and under what circumstances you'd be considering keeping it above that level? Second question is on Namibia. I just wanted to check what's your work plan for this year? I think there's one more exploration well. And just wanted to check what's your planned [potential] activity on [39] this year?

是的。第一個問題是關於您 2023 年的支出水平，該水平超過了 30% 至 40% 範圍的上限。我只是想闡明一下並了解您的方法是什麼？我們是否可以像以前的範圍一樣將 40% 視為軟上限，以及在什麼情況下您會考慮將其保持在該水平之上？第二個問題是關於納米比亞的。我只是想了解一下你今年的工作計畫是什麼？我認為還有一個探索井。只是想檢查一下您今年計劃在 [39] 上進行哪些 [潛在] 活動？

Thanks, Giacomo, do you want to take the first one?

謝謝，賈科莫，你想坐第一個嗎？

Sure. Thanks, Giacomo. My preference is definitely not to introduce any new targets or anything else in. Let's keep it to the fact that if we say something, we're going to do it, Giacomo and that's what you see coming through. So 30% to 40% is through the cycle. That's very much what we've said in Capital Markets Day, and that's what you will continue to see us deliver.

當然。謝謝，賈科莫。我絕對傾向於不引入任何新目標或其他任何東西。讓我們堅持這樣的事實：如果我們說了什麼，我們就會去做，賈科莫，這就是你所看到的。因此 30% 到 40% 是透過週期實現的。這正是我們在資本市場日所說的，也是您將繼續看到我們實現的目標。

What is our thinking around that? We have a 4% progressive dividend, as you know, very attractive returns overall. Our shares remain undervalued by any metric that you want to look at. And therefore, we're looking to preferentially allocate towards those, really clear of why we would do that when you're sitting at 15% free cash flow yield. Of course, we're going to be going after the shares. Comfort in terms of leaning on the balance sheet when I need to lean on it. But fundamentally, what I'm doing is looking through the quarter. So it's not specifically just on the individual quarter. I'm making sure that I take a pragmatic approach to it. And basically have confidence in what are the cash flows going forward of the company. Hence, the fact you saw the distributions that you saw so far.

我們對此有何看法？我們有 4% 的累積股息，如您所知，整體回報率非常有吸引力。無論以何種指標衡量，我們的股票仍被低估。因此，我們希望優先分配這些資源，當你擁有 15% 的自由現金流收益率時，我們為什麼要這樣做就很清楚了。當然，我們會追求股份。當我需要依賴資產負債表時，可以感到很舒服。但從根本上來說，我所做的是回顧本季。因此，這不僅僅針對單一季度。我確保採取務實的態度來處理此事。並且基本上對公司未來的現金流充滿信心。因此，事實上您看到的是迄今為止所看到的分佈。

And Giacomo on Namibia, little to update at this stage. I think -- as you are well aware, we've been drilling some exploration wells, some appraisal wells. We have a couple actually that we plan to drill in the coming months. As I've said in the past, there's no question around the volume of the resource. The biggest question is around finding the sweet spots within that resource, within the rock to be able to create the opportunities for exciting developments there. And that's what we have to be able to find out. We will take our time and be thorough in the way we look through that because these are significant capital investments. And therefore, we want to make sure that we are able to deliver a return for our shareholders. And this is why we want to really derisk the opportunity. And of course, it also helps that we're not the only ones drilling there.

賈科莫關於納米比亞的情況目前沒有什麼更新。我認為——正如您所知，我們一直在鑽探一些勘探井和一些評估井。實際上，我們計劃在未來幾個月內進行幾處鑽探。正如我過去所說的那樣，資源的數量是毫無疑問的。最大的問題是如何在岩石資源中找到最佳開採點，從而為那裡的令人興奮的發展創造機會。這就是我們必須找到的答案。我們將花時間徹底研究這個問題，因為這是重大的資本投資。因此，我們希望確保能為股東帶來回報。這就是為什麼我們想要真正降低這個機會的風險。當然，我們不是唯一在那裡鑽探的人，這也有幫助。

So there's other activities in the basin, which will, of course, provide more data points that informs the broader picture around the prospectivity of the basin and our ability to create value from it. I hope that helps a bit. Thanks again for the questions. Luke, if we can go to the next question, please.

因此，盆地中還有其他活動，當然，這將提供更多的數據點，為盆地的勘探前景和我們從中創造價值的能力提供更廣泛的資訊。我希望這能有所幫助。再次感謝您的提問。路克，我們可以進入下一個問題嗎？

Our next caller is Josh Stone from UBS.

我們的下一位來電者是瑞銀的喬許‧史東 (Josh Stone)。

Two questions, please. Firstly, just the recent elections in the Netherlands and a potential impact on Shell, I appreciate coalition talks are still ongoing. But do you see any risk to an impact to your green investments in the country with particular interest in the biofuel and hydrogen projects? Do these continue regardless of the regulatory environment? Or could we see a slowdown in terms of change in mandates? And then second question on Nature Energy. And maybe if you could just talk about how that business is performing versus your expectation? And how the integration with where the business is going? And if you learned any lessons in the biogas market in particular?

請問兩個問題。首先，鑑於荷蘭最近的選舉及其對殼牌的潛在影響，我理解聯盟談判仍在進行中。但是，您是否認為您在該國的綠色投資（特別是生物燃料和氫氣計畫）會受到任何影響的風險？無論監管環境如何，這些情況都會持續下去嗎？或者我們會看到任務變更的進度放緩？第二個問題是關於自然能源的。您能否談談該業務的表現與您的預期相比如何？與業務發展方向如何整合？您是否在沼氣市場學到了什麼特別的教訓？

Thanks. I'll take the first one. If you want to take the second one. I think what's critical to say is all of our investments irrespective of the country, I think, have to be resilient to multiple administrations, multiple governments coming in and coming out, Josh. I mean that's the reality. For the specific projects that you talked about in the Netherlands, of course, the underpinning of the regulatory support is EU support, not just the Dutch support. A lot of what we tap into are the Renewable Energy Directive, #1 and #2 and potentially one day #3. Those are what creates some of the broader support for those projects. And so far, we don't see any moves away from that. And that's going to be a key determinant of the success of those projects. We will continue to look at opportunities to be able to, of course, engage with the government when it comes into power. For now, all the indications are support for the continued investment that we are making in the Netherlands, which is substantial by the way, predominantly in the low-carbon space as we also unwind our presence there on the Groningen field.

謝謝。我要第一個。如果你想選擇第二個。我認為至關重要的一點是，無論在哪個國家，我們的所有投資都必須能夠抵禦多屆政府、多屆政府的更迭，喬希。我的意思是這就是現實。對於您談到的荷蘭的具體項目，監管支持的基礎當然是歐盟的支持，而不僅僅是荷蘭的支持。我們利用的許多資源是再生能源指令，#1 和#2，並且可能有一天會是#3。這些都為這些項目提供了更廣泛的支持。到目前為止，我們還沒有看到任何改變這一現狀的措施。這將成為這些專案成功的關鍵因素。當然，我們將繼續尋找機會，以便在政府執政後能夠與其接觸。目前，所有跡像都支持我們在荷蘭繼續投資，順便說一下，我們的投資是巨大的，主要集中在低碳領域，因為我們也正在格羅寧根油田逐步退出。

And with respect to Nature Energy, it's quite early to tell at the moment. So we're into the first year of it, not even finished the first year so far. What we're seeing is a lot of learnings going back and forth because what you may remember is when we actually bought Nature Energy, we said we would actually fill some of our renewable natural gas activities within Europe into it as well. So it's a great opportunity for us to be able to see the information flow in both directions and actually learn from the team there as well to see the trading opportunities that we have as well.

就自然能源而言，現在下結論還為時過早。所以我們進入了第一年，但到目前為止第一年還沒結束。我們看到的是反覆進行的許多學習，因為您可能還記得，當我們真正收購自然能源時，我們說過我們實際上也會將我們在歐洲的一些再生天然氣活動納入其中。因此，這對我們來說是一個很好的機會，我們能夠看到雙向的資訊流，並且實際上可以從那裡的團隊學習，了解我們擁有的交易機會。

So early days, information flowing, making sure we actually get in place both the standards that we want to have from both sides and making sure that we have the ability to be able to move the molecules where we want. So looking forward to provide some updates into the future as well.

因此，早期的資訊流動確保我們真正實現了雙方都希望擁有的標準，並確保我們有能力將分子移動到我們想要的位置。因此也期待在未來提供一些更新。

Thanks, Sinead. Thanks, Josh. Luke can we get the next question, please?

謝謝，Sinead。謝謝，喬希。路克，我們可以回答下一個問題嗎？

Our next caller is Lydia Rainforth, from Barclays.

我們的下一位來電者是來自巴克萊銀行的 Lydia Rainforth。

Two questions. But on the first one, there is obviously a lot of free cash flow within the business, and it is quite remarkable how much you're generating. And Sinead I agree with that [saying] that your shares are undervalued. Did you ever think about giving an annual number for the buyback? And clearly, I can take 40% of my forecast and get to a number. But just on your side, why not have the confidence to give an annual number? And this is a [vaguely like] but on the acquisition side, we obviously have seen a lot of acquisitions across the globe. Is there any point where you think as you were missing out on this?

兩個問題。但就第一個問題而言，企業內部顯然存在大量自由現金流，而且產生的現金流非常可觀。 Sinead，我同意你的說法，你的股票被低估了。您是否考慮過給予一個年度回購金額？顯然，我可以採用 40% 的預測來得出一個數字。但就你們這邊來說，為什麼沒有信心給一個年度數字呢？這有點類似，但在收購方面，我們顯然已經看到全球範圍內有許多收購。您是否覺得自己錯過了什麼機會？

And then secondly, on the chemical side, on the Pennsylvania cracker, where are you now in terms of certification of some of those products? And it does appear that it's going to be difficult to meet that cost of capital hurdle. So when you're thinking about that process of would you do it again [actually] or how we should not make that sort of investment on, [one] that it's not going to make the return?

其次，在化學方面，就賓州裂解裝置而言，您目前對某些產品的認證情況如何？看起來，要滿足資本成本障礙將會非常困難。所以，當您考慮這個過程時，您是否會再次這樣做（實際上）或者我們不應該對不會產生回報的項目進行這種投資？

Yes. Thank you very much, Lydia. I think inherently three questions. I'll take the last two, start with those and then come back to you, Sinead, on the free cash flow generation. I think -- let me start with Monaca, and then go to the acquisition. On Monaca, you recall last update I provided was that the first two polyethylene trains -- two of three were running well. They are running at or above capacity and continue to do so, which is pleasing to see. I also updated you at the time that there was equipment issues on the third train. I'm pleased to report that, that piece of equipment now has been installed, the compressor that we needed to put into place and is in the process of being started up and will ramp up through the course of the coming weeks.

是的。非常感謝，莉迪亞。我認為本質上有三個問題。我將討論最後兩個問題，先從這兩個開始，然後再回到你，Sinead，關於自由現金流的產生。我想——讓我先從 Monaca 開始，然後再談收購。關於莫納卡，您記得我提供的最新更新是，前兩列聚乙烯列車——三列中的兩列運行良好。他們的產能達到或超過了最大產能，而且還在繼續這樣做，這令人欣慰。我當時也向您通報了第三列火車的設備出現問題。我很高興地報告，那台設備現在已經安裝完畢，我們需要安裝的壓縮機正在啟動過程中，並將在未來幾週內逐步投入使用。

So that allows us, hopefully, to stabilize the plant from there on. Our focus right now is on volume, on just pushing the volume through the plant. And why is that? That's because the differentials at the moment between the gas price and the product price are significant. So even before we get very forensic around the potential grades that we have that we can actually crack out there. The real focus is on just getting flow through, and that's what the team is focused on for the coming months. And then over time, of course, we will continue to optimize value through the opportunities that we have technically to do so.

因此，我們希望能夠從此穩定工廠。我們現在的重點是產量，就是推動工廠的產量。這是為什麼呢？這是因為目前天然氣價格和產品價格之間的差異很大。因此，甚至在我們對潛在成績進行深入分析之前，我們就可以真正地破解它。真正的重點是讓流程順利進行，這也是團隊在未來幾個月所關注的重點。當然，隨著時間的推移，我們將繼續利用技術上的機會來優化價值。

On your question around acquisition, I think, the worst thing you can ever do is get (inaudible) when others are acquiring. We set out a very clear strategy middle of last year. And if anything, we stand today in a position where we are very pleased with not just the progress we are making, but the momentum that we are building towards that strategy. And we are absolutely convinced that, that strategy, if we can continue to deliver on the pace we are delivering, will unlock significantly more value than any other acquisition. And of course, you see that playing through. You see it through the stability of our cash flow generation. I mean, our Gulf of Mexico business this last quarter produced at a record high, the highest in over two decades. Our Queensland Gas Company asset base is producing at a record high, the highest since it started up 10 years ago. So the quality of the CFFO is strong.

關於你提到的收購問題，我認為，你能做的最糟糕的事情就是在別人收購的時候（聽不清楚）。我們在去年年中製定了非常明確的策略。無論如何，我們今天所處的位置讓我們感到非常高興，不僅因為我們所取得的進展，也因為我們朝著這項策略所建立的勢頭。我們堅信，如果我們能夠繼續以目前的速度實施這項策略，它將比任何其他收購釋放出更大的價值。當然，你會看到這一切正在上演。您可以透過我們現金流產生的穩定性看到這一點。我的意思是，我們墨西哥灣業務上個季度的產量創下了歷史新高，是二十多年來的最高水平。我們的昆士蘭天然氣公司的資產基礎產量創下了歷史新高，這是自 10 年前啟動以來的最高水準。所以CFFO的素質很高。

Yes, there's more to do to get Prelude and Monaca up and running. At the same time, Sinead has already alluded to the growth in CFFO coming from the 200,000 barrels per day and new projects that will be coming through. Cost is coming down. CapEx discipline is showing. So I think you see all the credentials to be able to really focus on unlocking that value from the first sprint. And we're only two quarters into a 10-quarter Sprint. And so I do think it's a unique opportunity for us to continue to use that surplus cash to be able to lean in and do more buybacks, which is exactly what you see us do, and we will consistently do that in line with what we have said we will do. Sinead?

是的，要讓 Prelude 和 Monaca 正常運作還有很多工作要做。同時，Sinead 已經暗示 CFFO 的成長將來自每天 20 萬桶的產量以及即將推出的新項目。成本正在下降。資本支出紀律正在顯現。因此我認為您已經了解了所有憑證，能夠真正專注於從第一個衝刺開始釋放該價值。而我們僅完成了 10 個季度的 Sprint 中的兩個季度。因此，我確實認為這對我們來說是一個獨特的機會，讓我們能夠繼續利用這些剩餘現金來進行更多回購，這正是您所看到的我們所做的，而且我們將始終如一地按照我們所說的去做。西妮德？

I think that's the perfect answer to the first question as well. I think my sort of brief response would be when we set a target, you can see that we're looking at performance, not promises. We will meet it and hopefully beat it. You can see that preference is to not set a huge number of additional targets along the way. Just look at our track record.

我認為這也是對第一個問題的完美回答。我想我的簡短回答是，當我們設定目標時，你可以看到我們專注的是績效，而不是承諾。我們會迎接它並希望戰勝它。您可以看到，我們的偏好是不要在過程中設定大量額外的目標。看看我們的業績記錄就知道了。

If you look back over the last, however many quarters, 6 quarters, whatever it may be, it's a very tight range in terms of the buyback. So hopefully, it gives you complete predictability in terms of what's going forward, Lydia as well. But fundamentally, I'll always look at the performance of the company in the quarter and looking forward as well. That's why you see a $3.5 billion share buyback at this point.

如果回顧過去，無論是多少個季度、6 個季度，無論是什麼，回購的範圍都非常狹窄。所以希望它能讓你完全預測未來會發生什麼，莉迪亞也是如此。但從根本上來說，我會始終關注公司本季的表現並展望未來。這就是為什麼你會看到此時有 35 億美元的股票回購。

And maybe a fine point there, Lydia as well. You'd ask me, would we do Penn Chem again? I think -- what we will continue to do is to be very clear where every single dollar of capital is going to be prioritized. Does it go into a buyback or does it go into other projects? We have said we're going to keep our capital employed in chemicals flat through the decade. So of course, that's a key consideration. And we will make sure that we do less of what we would call the mega, mega projects. That is very much the philosophy that we are adopting. Small and replicable is beautiful, and we see it in the context of Vito to Whale to Sparta. And so more and more of our capital expenditure is going to be in areas where we feel we can really get our hands around those opportunities. and only in exceptional cases where we truly see value add will we go for the bigger projects.

這也許是一個很好的觀點，莉迪亞也是。你會問我，我們還會再參加賓州大學化學課程嗎？我認為——我們將繼續做的是明確每一美元資本的優先用途。它會用於回購還是用於其他項目？我們說過，我們將在未來十年內保持化學品資本投入的穩定。所以當然，這是一個關鍵的考慮因素。我們將確保減少所謂的大型專案。這正是我們所秉持的理念。小而可複製是美的，我們在從維托到鯨魚再到斯巴達的背景下看到了這一點。因此，我們將把越來越多的資本支出投入到我們認為真正能夠抓住這些機會的領域。只有在我們真正看到增值的特殊情況下，我們才會去做更大的專案。

Thank you for the questions. If we can go to the next question, please, Luke?

謝謝您的提問。路克，我們可以進入下一個問題嗎？

Our next caller is Christopher Kuplent from Bank of America.

我們的下一位來電者是美國銀行的克里斯托弗·庫普倫特 (Christopher Kuplent)。

Just one each, if I may. Wael, maybe you can tell us where your -- as you call it, 10 quarter sprint so far is frustrating you? Where have you not made progress as you would have hoped? I appreciate it's early on asking you that question, but if you can give us a bit of color and maybe my particular hobby horse, your experience from what you did in Pakistan, is that a model that you're hoping to roll out elsewhere when you think about cutting the tail in your retail network?

如果可以的話，每人只限一個。 Wael，也許您可以告訴我們，到目前為止，您所說的 10 個季度衝刺讓您感到沮喪嗎？您在哪些方面沒有取得如您所願的進展？我知道現在問您這個問題還為時過早，但您能否給我們講講我特別感興趣的內容，您在巴基斯坦的經驗，當您考慮削減零售網絡的尾巴時，您是否希望在其他地方推廣這種模式？

And one for you, I'm really sorry, Sinead, but I do have trouble calculating a 42% CFFO payout ratio on 2023. It seems like you're giving yourself a lot of credit for working capital inflows, et cetera. So is it fair to assume that the underlying payout ratio is significantly higher once you go below the CFFO headline. And that, to me, would be a very bullish interpretation going forward when working capital changes perhaps go the other way.

還有一點要問你，Sinead，真的很抱歉，但我確實很難計算出 2023 年 42% 的 CFFO 派息率。看起來你對自己的營運資金流入等給予了很大的信任。因此，一旦低於 CFFO 標題，是否可以公平地假設基礎派息率會顯著提高。對我來說，當營運資本變化可能朝另一個方向發展時，這將是一個非常樂觀的解釋。

Thanks, Chris. Let me cover the first one and then have Sinead cover the second one. Look, I think I just outlined earlier, Chris, the strong confidence I have, but also humility to recognize indeed, we are early in the journey. What are the frustrations? Let me sort of provide a couple of maybe live examples rather than just talk theoretically. So one of the things that gives me confidence -- well, let me step back. What we are doing well clearly on the cost reduction side is the portfolio. And we are moving, maybe I'll pick up your retail question there. We are looking at every option for those tail markets or for those tail assets to be able to monetize them or shift the structures around them, shift them into trademark license agreements or the like to really make sure that our capital employed and our energies and our focus are on the right areas. So we will continue to do that.

謝謝，克里斯。讓我來介紹第一個，然後讓 Sinead 介紹第二個。你看，我想我剛才已經概述過了，克里斯，我非常有信心，但同時也謙虛地認識到，我們確實還處於旅程的早期階段。有哪些令人沮喪的事？讓我提供幾個現實的例子而不是僅僅從理論上進行討論。因此，讓我有信心的事情之一——好吧，讓我退一步來說。在降低成本方面，我們顯然做得很好的是產品組合。我們正在前進，也許我會在那裡回答您的零售問題。我們正在研究這些尾部市場或尾部資產的各種選擇，以便能夠將它們貨幣化或改變其周圍的結構，將它們轉變為商標許可協議或類似協議，以真正確保我們所使用的資本、我們的精力和我們的重點放在正確的領域。因此我們將繼續這樣做。

The real focus -- and we always knew the hard yards come from the structural cost reductions. And there, we are really making progress in a number of areas. I'll give you one simple one that I think is iconic in the bigger scheme of things. Our asset managers have historically had some 1,800 standards that they need to be complying by. So we spent time last year really focused on how do we simplify those standards, and we have reduced that requirement by 70%, while still living up to all of our safety and reliability expectations. But that's down from 1,800 to 500 standards.

真正的重點——我們一直都知道，困難來自於結構性成本的削減。我們確實在許多領域取得了進展。我會給你一個簡單的例子，我認為它在更大的範圍內具有標誌性。我們的資產管理者歷來需要遵守約 1,800 條標準。因此，去年我們花了大量時間專注於如何簡化這些標準，並且我們將這些要求降低了 70%，同時仍然滿足我們對所有安全性和可靠性的期望。但標準數量已從 1,800 降至 500。

Now I wish we could do that in a week. I wish we could do that in a month, but that takes work because we really need to go back and de-bureaucratize a lot of the activities we have. And so I wish it could be faster. But there are other areas where I look and say, actually, teams are getting it. Places like the Gulf of Mexico, I talked about the record production. I would also reference how they're being able to, for example, challenge the way they do work, reducing their overall people movements offshore by some 35%, allowing us to reduce our demand on helicopters by 50%. Just small examples of where you see the momentum starting to build I'm sure I speak on Sinead's behalf as well. Both of us would love to see that to go even faster. But we also recognize we have to take an entire organization along and some of it is unpacking things which we have ingrained into our business for a long, long time. So this is transformational journey, which is both exciting but also, of course, one that is going to take its time. Sinead?

現在我希望我們能在一周內完成這件事。我希望我們能在一個月內做到這一點，但這需要努力，因為我們確實需要回去並使我們現有的許多活動去官僚化。所以我希望它能夠更快。但從其他領域來看，我發現實際上各支球隊都已經實現了這一點。在墨西哥灣等地，我談到了唱片產量。我還要提到他們如何能夠挑戰他們的工作方式，將離岸人員流動總量減少約 35%，從而使我們對直升機的需求減少 50%。這只是一些小例子，從中你可以看到勢頭開始增強，我確信我也代表 Sinead 發言。我們倆都希望看到這一進程能夠更快一些。但我們也意​​識到，我們必須帶領整個組織一起努力，其中一些工作正在解開我們長期以來根深蒂固的業務觀念。所以這是一趟轉型之旅，既令人興奮，但當然也需要時間。西妮德？

Yes. Indeed, and thanks, Chris. In terms of the question of just your point on the calculation of the payout ratio, we actually haven't changed it year-on-year. So as you know, if you look back at the previous year, so '22, where we had actually working capital outflows and quite substantial ones as well. We calculate it on the back of that. When we looked at it in '23, where we had inflows, we looked at it in that. So working capital, you're right, it does vary with us. It goes in and out across the period, but we keep it pretty consistent. What I'm probably more interested in regardless of how I calculate, is just simply put, am I giving a compelling return to my shareholders or not? I think with $23 billion across the year, we've definitely done exactly that in terms of that mix. I hope we can look through that to continue to regardless of the working capital, like the working capital inflow this quarter or not. I'm still looking through it to be able to say, do I have confidence in the future cash flows of the company to be able to continue to distribute which is why the $3.5 billion. So hopefully, you'll see that tight range that I mentioned before and that track record coming through. Happy to work the details of the calculation with you through IR at any point.

是的。確實，謝謝你，克里斯。關於您提到的派息率計算問題，我們實際上並沒有逐年進行改變。所以，如你所知，如果你回顧前一年，也就是 22 年，我們實際上有營運資金流出，而且流出量相當大。我們以此為基礎進行計算。當我們在 23 年觀察它時，我們發現有資金流入，我們就從這個角度來觀察它。所以，你說得對，營運資金確實因人而異。它會在整個期間內進進出出，但我們保持它相當一致。無論我如何計算，我更感興趣的可能是，簡單地說，我是否為股東帶來了可觀的回報？我認為，考慮到全年 230 億美元的投入，我們在這一組合方面確實做到了這一點。我希望我們能夠繼續關注這一點，無論營運資金如何，例如本季是否有營運資金流入。我仍在仔細研究它，以便能夠說，我是否對公司未來的現金流有信心，能夠繼續分配，這就是 35 億美元的原因。因此，希望您能看到我之前提到的狹窄範圍以及所取得的成績。很高興隨時透過 IR 與您一起討論計算細節。

Thanks, Sinead. And thank you, Chris, for the questions. Luke let's go to our next question please.

謝謝，Sinead。謝謝克里斯提出的問題。盧克，請讓我們進入下一個問題。

Our next caller is Martijn Rats from Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個來電者是來自摩根士丹利的 Martijn Rats。

I've got two, if I may. If you look at sort of the 4Q results and also the full year 2023 results, I have a question about sort of trading and optimization. Because previously, you've indicated that trading and optimization is sort of 2% to 4% point sort of uplift to return on capital for the company at large. But sort of backing this out is always tremendously difficult. But it looks to me like in 2023, it was either at or possibly even above that range. And I was wondering if that is indeed the case. And the reason why I'm asking is that if it is indeed the case, I mean it has become -- it is a very, very large share of the company's sort of overall earnings. And the other one I wanted to ask is about the disposal of onshore Nigeria. If you could say a few words on how that might impact sort of earnings cash flow sort of going forward? What are the implications of that, that we should take into account from a modeling perspective?

如果可以的話，我有兩個。如果您查看第四季度業績以及 2023 年全年業績，我會對交易和優化產生疑問。因為之前您曾表示，交易和優化可以提高整個公司的資本回報率 2% 到 4%。但要擺脫這種困境總是極為困難的。但在我看來，到 2023 年，它要么達到這個範圍，甚至可能超過這個範圍。我想知道事實是否確實如此。我之所以問這個問題是因為，如果確實如此，那麼它已經佔據了公司整體收益中非常非常大的一部分。我想問的另一個問題是關於尼日利亞境內石油的處置。您能否簡單談談這將如何影響未來的獲利現金流？從建模角度來看，我們應該考慮哪些影響？

You want to take both?

你想兩者皆用嗎？

Yes. Happy to. So indeed, thanks Martijn. And in terms of trading and optimization, particularly this quarter, we saw a really good result from our LNG trading and optimization. It's pretty exceptional quarter. Q4 tends to be very good, as you know, for them so we saw that repeated again. You're right, we said 2% to 4% in terms of Capital Markets Day in terms of the uplift that comes through. It's very difficult to guide quarter-on-quarter, of course, because there is that volatility that comes through. The way I tend to look at it is it tends to be linked to either the opportunities that we have or in effect, weather. And what we tend to see, of course, is that with respect to the LNG side, set up for the Northern Hemisphere that Wael mentioned earlier, Q4 and Q1 tend to be the stronger ones. Not surprising as gas at the end of the day. So this is about the winter there. And of course, about the volatility in [arb] opportunities, which were very strong, as he already alluded to as well, in Q4.

是的。很開心。確實，感謝 Martijn。在交易和優化方面，特別是本季度，我們的液化天然氣交易和優化取得了非常好的結果。這是一個相當特殊的季度。正如你所知，Q4 對他們來說往往非常好，所以我們再次看到這種情況重演。你說得對，我們說資本市場日的漲幅將達到 2% 到 4%。當然，預測季度環比成長非常困難，因為存在波動。我傾向於認為它往往與我們擁有的機會或實際上的天氣有關。當然，我們傾向於看到的是，就瓦埃爾之前提到的北半球的液化天然氣方面而言，Q4 和 Q1 往往表現更強勁。一天結束時就像氣體一樣，這並不奇怪。這就是那裡的冬天。當然，正如他已經提到的，第四季的套利機會波動非常強烈。

What we see in Chemicals and Products and particularly on the product side, of course, is that although there's a weather element of that, so of course, with gasoline driving season, et cetera, and diesel, you see much more, it's about the opportunities that come about. Q4 tends to not be there. And that's why we get that volatility over it. So we see that 2% to 4% is a pretty good representation. But you're right, IG tends to be on the higher end of the 2% to 4% within that range and you tend to see the Chemicals and Products more middle to lower end of it, so it gives that blend across it.

我們在化學品和產品方面，特別是在產品方面看到的是，雖然其中有天氣因素，但當然，隨著汽油駕駛季節等等，以及柴油，你會看到更多，這是關於隨之而來的機會。 Q4 往往不存在。這就是我們為什麼會經歷這種波動的原因。因此，我們認為 2% 到 4% 是一個相當不錯的代表性。但您說得對，IG 往往處於該範圍內 2% 到 4% 的高端，而化學品和產品則往往處於該範圍的中間到低端，因此它呈現出這種混合。

In terms of the disposals, you talked about particularly Nigeria, what are you talking about there? Well, in terms of the reserves, just to give you a bit of a feel, it's less than 5% of our reserves. But as we know, when we talk about any of these barrels, it's less than 100 KBU day as an example. But of course, it depends on price, and it depends on your ability to get paid as well as it comes through. So each barrel is not created equal, and I think that's very much the case in terms of Nigeria. So we're not worried about in terms of the impact coming out of the cash flows. And actually, when you look at the disposals we've announced, and the disposals we've already done. That growth element that Wael and myself have both talked about whether it's Timi, Vito, LNG Canada, all of those different ones coming through, they more than exceed the cash flows from the divestments, which is the key point to take away here, but thank you, Martijn.

在處置方面，您特別提到了尼日利亞，您在那裡談論的是什麼？嗯，就儲備而言，只是為了讓你有點感覺，它不到我們儲備的 5%。但我們知道，當我們談論這些桶子中的任何一個時，例如每天的產量都少於 100 KBU。但當然，這取決於價格，也取決於你獲得報酬的能力。所以，每一桶石油都不是生來平等的，我認為，奈及利亞的情況就是如此。因此，我們並不擔心現金流帶來的影響。實際上，當您查看我們已宣布的處置以及我們已經完成的處置時。 Wael 和我都談到的成長因素，無論是 Timi、Vito、LNG Canada，還是所有這些不同的項目，它們的現金流都超過了資產剝離帶來的現金流，這是這裡的關鍵點，但還是謝謝你，Martijn。

Thanks, Sinead. Thank you, Martijn, for the questions. Luke, can we go to the next one, please?

謝謝，Sinead。謝謝 Martijn 提出的問題。路克，我們可以進入下一個嗎？

Our next caller is Lucas Herrmann from BNP.

我們的下一位嘉賓是來自法國巴黎銀行的盧卡斯·赫爾曼 (Lucas Herrmann)。

I wonder if I could push you a bit on Chemicals or a little bit more on chemicals or maybe you could help me out. So Wael, it looks like you lost about $2 billion at the EBIT level on Chemicals this year. The losses were larger in the fourth quarter than they were in the third, despite your indicated margin being improved and the comment that two of the three trains, et cetera, at Monaca are working. Can you help me understand -- as Monaca comes on, hopefully, as Singapore goes out, how do I think about the progress that one might expect to see in terms of EBIT, cash flow improvement across that business, which chunks of the business are actually making money at the present time, if any? Just walk me through the business and give me -- help me determine how to think about the profitability or otherwise, the ones likely to see as we go through this year and try and leave the macro behind, which I don't think is going to help you greatly unfortunately.

我想知道我是否可以在化學方面給你一些幫助，或者多給你一些幫助，或者你能否幫助我。所以 Wael，看起來你今年在化學品方面的息稅前利潤損失了大約 20 億美元。儘管您指出利潤率有所提高，並且摩納卡的三列火車中有兩列仍在運行，但第四季度的虧損比第三季度更大。你能幫我理解嗎——隨著莫納卡的崛起（希望如此），隨著新加坡的退出，我如何看待人們期望看到的息稅前利潤（EBIT）、整個業務的現金流改善方面的進展，哪些業務部分目前實際上正在賺錢（如果有的話）？只需向我介紹一下業務並告訴我——幫助我確定如何考慮盈利能力或其他方面，我們在今年可能會看到這些，並試圖將宏觀拋在腦後，但不幸的是，我認為這不會對你有太大幫助。

Very good. Was that it, Lucas, have I missed anything that you wanted to ask as well?

非常好。就是這樣嗎，盧卡斯，我是否遺漏了你想問的任何事情？

No, that was probably far too long anyway, Wael, but I appreciate any insights.

不，那可能太長了，Wael，但我感謝任何見解。

I'll give a perspective and then invite Sinead to also add if needed. Look, I think, of course, the performance of Chemicals has been something that is very much in the spotlight for us. And we haven't tried to sugarcoat that even as far back as Capital Markets Day. And we still realize we have a long journey to go there. I'd say there are three key levers that we are pulling there, Lucas. One is indeed the fundamental is making sure that the $14 billion or so of capital employed in Shell Polymers Monaca, the Penn Chem facility are generating the return. You don't see a lot of that coming through in Q4 you're right because Q4 was actually -- those units were down in Q4 as we were looking to complete all the maintenance work on the cracker itself before we were about to bring up the third train and to repair things that we had discovered through the start-up process. And so that startup of those units was, I think, towards the tail end of last year in the December period and have gone through into the January period. And as I earlier said, the third train is in the process of starting up. So don't expect much at least for the first few weeks coming out of it until we've ramped it up.

我會給出一個觀點，然後如果需要的話邀請 Sinead 也補充。當然，我認為化學品的表現一直是我們最關注的焦點。即使早在資本市場日，我們也沒有試圖粉飾這一點。但我們仍然意識到我們還有很長的路要走。盧卡斯，我想說，我們在這裡要利用三個關鍵槓桿。第一個真正重要的是確保殼牌莫納卡聚合物公司和賓州大學化學工廠投入的約 140 億美元資本能夠產生回報。您不會在第四季度看到很多這樣的情況，您說得對，因為第四季度實際上 - 這些裝置在第四季度處於停工狀態，因為我們希望在啟動第三列火車之前完成裂解裝置本身的所有維護工作，並修復我們在啟動過程中發現的問題。因此，我認為這些單位的啟動時間是在去年 12 月底，並持續到 1 月。正如我之前所說，第三列列車正在啟動。因此，至少在最初的幾週內，在我們將其提升到更高水平之前，不要抱有太大的期望。

What we have said, and we haven't changed our guidance is that you should expect $1 billion to $1.5 billion of EBITDA from Monaca, when it's up and running, which is not going to be in 2024. It's more likely to be in 2025, 2026, that's when you should expect that. The second key lever that we're using is -- that we're deploying, of course, is the portfolio one. You talked about [Bukom]. I won't address that. That, of course, is bleeding. And therefore, the sooner we can move on that portfolio, [you move] the better.

我們已經說過，我們沒有改變我們的指導方針，當 Monaca 投入運營時，你應該預計它的 EBITDA 為 10 億至 15 億美元，這不會在 2024 年實現。更有可能的是，在 2025 年、2026 年，那時你才應該預期這一點。我們正在使用的第二個關鍵槓桿是——當然，我們部署的是投資組合槓桿。您談到了[Bukom]。我不會談論這個。那當然就是流血了。因此，我們越早採取行動，就越好。

We're also looking to high grade our portfolio through something like the recent announcement on Rhineland, where we are shutting down one of the crackers and converting it into a high-quality base oil units that will supply roughly 40% of Germany's needs. So that portfolio transformation is also ongoing.

我們也希望透過類似最近在萊茵蘭發布的公告來提升我們的投資組合，我們將關閉其中一座裂解裝置，並將其改造成高品質的基礎油裝置，以滿足德國約 40% 的需求。因此投資組合轉型也在進行中。

And then thirdly, there's a cost component. We just need to get sharper on cost. And so what we're doing there is, for example, reducing our IT spend there as part of a broader corporate focus program on IT, where we have, in essence, reduced some 35% of our IT contractors, some 3,000 people since middle of last year and really getting much sharper on where we want to focus our scarce IT dollars. We have recently announced a significant downsizing of the commercial team in Chemicals down by some 25% headcount. So there's a lot of actions to be able to do what we can control or fix what we can control.

第三，還有成本因素。我們只是需要更加關注成本。例如，我們正在削減 IT 支出，這是更廣泛的企業 IT 重點計畫的一部分。自去年年中以來，我們實質上已經減少了約 35% 的 IT 承包商，約 3,000 名員工，並且更加明確地知道我們應該將稀缺的 IT 資金集中到哪裡。我們最近宣布大幅縮減化學品業務的商業團隊，員工人數減少約 25%。因此，我們可以採取很多行動來做我們能夠控制的事情或解決我們能夠控制的事情。

The margins aren't great. I mean that's obvious, and I don't know how long that lasts. But what we have to be able to do is to do the best that we can within the constraints that we have. And so we are focused on that. We also haven't changed the guidance that against the indicative chemical margin that we presented in Capital Markets Day, we expect to deliver around $3 billion to $4 billion of earnings coming out of the Chemicals and Products portfolio. So that's where we are, and there is no shortage of attention or effort to be able to get this to be the best business that it can be within the constraints of what the business is today, while we continue to look at options to do even better. Sinead, would you have wanted to add anything?

利潤並不大。我的意思是這很明顯，但我不知道這會持續多久。但我們必須要做的就是在現有的限制條件下盡力做到最好。因此我們專注於此。我們也沒有改變我們在資本市場日提出的化學品利潤率指導方針，我們預計化學品和產品組合將帶來約 30 億至 40 億美元的收益。這就是我們現在的狀況，我們投入了大量的注意力和精力，以便在現有業務限制的範圍內，將業務做到最好，同時我們也會繼續尋找更好的選擇。 Sinead，您還有什麼要補充的嗎？

I think one sentence would be you're completely right. It is loss-making at this point in time. And that's why you can see my confidence and our confidence as we talk about the free cash flow into the future of the company. By stopping that loss-making side of things, by turning it around, by doing the divestments, by getting Monaca up and running, it just gives us that runway, Lucas, into the future in terms of being able to just see that free cash flow growth. I think you've covered it already.

我認為一句話就是你完全正確。目前該公司處於虧損狀態。這就是為什麼當我們談論公司未來的自由現金流時，你可以看到我的信心和我們的信心。透過停止虧損，透過扭轉局面，透過撤資，透過讓 Monaca 開始運轉，這為我們未來提供了一條跑道，盧卡斯，讓我們能夠看到自由現金流的增長。我認為你已經講過了。

Thank you very much, Lucas, for the question. Luke, could we go to the next question, please?

非常感謝盧卡斯提出的問題。路克，我們可以進入下一個問題嗎？

Our final caller today is Jeoffrey Lambujon from TPH & Co.

今天我們最後一位訪客是來自 TPH & Co. 的 Jeoffrey Lambujon。

My first is a follow-up on one of the projects you mentioned earlier, LNG Canada. Could you provide a status update there whether in terms of completion and start-up time lines or however you'd characterize it as you see things today? And then my second question is on the structural cost reductions, which as you mentioned already well in flight following the strong 2023. I know you referenced that this is going to be an ongoing initiative even beyond the 2025 time frame that [bounds] the near-term target. But could you comment on how you're thinking about sources for and time line of deliverability for these reductions over the near term, just at least as far as the visibility that you have and can share?

我的第一個問題是跟進您之前提到的項目之一——LNG Canada。您能否提供當前狀態的更新，無論是完成和啟動時間表，還是您今天所看到的情況？我的第二個問題是關於結構性成本削減，正如您所說，在 2023 年取得強勁增長之後，這一舉措已經在順利推進。我知道您提到，這將是一項持續的舉措，甚至會持續到 2025 年（設定近期目標）之後。但是，您能否評論一下，您如何考慮這些削減的來源和短期內可交付時間表，至少就您所擁有和可以分享的可見性而言？

Thank you very much, Jeoffrey. I'll take the first one and then let Sinead address the second one. LNG Canada, you'll have -- we also addressed this last year. We have seen, of course, the Coastal GasLink pipeline completed mechanically last year and ready and available to ramp up through the course of 2024. The facility itself at Kitimat is now just over 90% complete as per the report from the joint venture. So they're making good progress. And we would expect that later this year, they would start up the commissioning of the plant. That, of course, takes several months, well into 2025. But it's comforting to see the progress that is being made. And of course, once we start producing those commissioning cargoes will be made available from day one to our foundational customers as you would expect. So pleased with the progress, but this is -- no doubt, this is a very, very complex facility that's going to be ramped up. And therefore, we are going to be -- to watch it and to support the team as they do that through the course of the coming 12 to 18 months.

非常感謝，傑弗裡。我先回答第一個問題，然後請 Sinead 回答第二個問題。 LNG 加拿大，我們去年也討論過這個問題。當然，我們已經看到，Coastal GasLink 管道已於去年完成機械施工，並已做好準備，可在 2024 年之前逐步增加產量。根據合資公司的報告，位於基蒂馬特的設施本身目前已完成 90% 以上。所以他們正在取得良好的進展。我們預計他們將在今年稍後啟動該工廠的調試。當然，這需要幾個月的時間，到 2025 年才會實現。但看到正在取得的進展令人欣慰。當然，一旦我們開始生產，這些調試貨物將從第一天起提供給我們的基礎客戶，正如您所期望的那樣。我對進展感到非常高興，但毫無疑問，這是一個非常複雜的設施，需要進一步完善。因此，我們將在未來 12 到 18 個月內關注並支持該團隊。

And thanks, Jeoffrey. You asked about OpEx. You heard me talk about how pleased I am in terms of the progress to date, $1 billion after only 7 months. Great progress. We talk about it in terms of where we play and how we play. In terms of where we play, the portfolio moves on the predominance of that at the moment. And you can see, of course, is ramping up with Pakistan coming through, Nigeria coming through and many others that you will see flow through as well. So you'll see some of the OpEx come down.

謝謝你，傑弗裡。您詢問了有關 OpEx 的問題。您聽到我說過我對迄今為止的進展感到多麼高興，僅用 7 個月就籌集了 10 億美元。很大的進步。我們從比賽地點和比賽方式的角度來談論它。就我們所處的位置而言，投資組合的變動目前以此為主導。當然，您可以看到，巴基斯坦、奈及利亞以及其他許多國家的援助正在增加。因此你會看到部分營運支出下降。

The reason I don't give you timing on that is, of course, it's dependent on approvals and when that will actually occur. So we expect those to happen towards the back end of this year, more than likely 2024. How we play, that's a difficult stuff, that's the bottoms up. Very much in terms of three areas I'd look at, Leaner Corporate Center, Wael already alluded to IT and taking out contingent workers there, but across all of the functions, making sure it's fit for purpose. We, of course, look at it in terms of pacing the growth in terms of our Downstream and res business. Really going after things. Wael talked about Chemicals, et cetera, and the thoughts of taking costs out there. But of course, also, you see it in terms of low carbon fuels where we've got this mixture of actual growth coming through with Nature Energy but of course, moving away from some of the aspects of hydrogen into mobility in California as an example. So you'll see a bit of a mix there.

我之所以沒有告訴你具體時間，當然是因為這取決於批准情況以及何時真正發生。因此，我們預計這些將在今年年底實現，更有可能是 2024 年。我們如何比賽，這是一件困難的事情，這是自下而上的事情。就我要關注的三個領域而言，精益企業中心，Wael 已經提到了 IT 和在那裡撤出臨時工，但要涵蓋所有職能，確保它適合用途。當然，我們會從下游和資源業務的成長速度的角度來看待這個問題。真正追求事物。 Wael 談到了化學物質等，以及降低這些方面的成本的想法。當然，你也可以從低碳燃料的角度來看，我們透過自然能源實現了實際成長，但當然，我們也從氫能的某些方面轉向了加州的移動出行領域。因此你會看到那裡有一點混合。

And finally, we're looking at continued improvement, of course, in our Upstream business, where you see the aspects of going after [hards] where we spend money in terms of maintenance, making sure it's really bang for our buck, et cetera. So those ones you will see come through in the course of the year, but the big meaty ones will be probably towards the end of the year. What I hope you're seeing on all of this is, we've given you a promise in terms of $2 billion to $3 billion. We're already $1 billion through there. So indeed, it's about performance rather than the promises, and we're really continuing to drive that hard.

最後，我們當然希望上游業務能夠持續改進，您可以看到我們在維護方面投入的資金，確保物有所值，等等。因此，您將在一年內看到這些成果，但重大成果可能會在年底出現。我希望你們看到的是，我們向你們承諾了 20 億至 30 億美元。我們已經在那裡投入了 10 億美元。所以事實上，這關乎業績而非承諾，我們確實會繼續努力。

That's a great way to end. Jeoffrey, thank you for the questions. And hopefully, the theme of today you would have taken is this is a company that is truly delivering now on its sprint and we are building the track record that we said we want to build. Thank you all for your questions. Thank you for joining the call. Wishing you all a very pleasant end of the week. Thank you for your time.

這是一個很好的結束方式。傑弗裡，謝謝你的提問。希望您能理解今天的主題：這是一家真正在衝刺中實現目標的公司，我們正在創造我們想要創造的業績記錄。謝謝大家的提問。感謝您參加此通話。祝大家週末愉快。感謝您抽出時間。