殼牌 (SHEL) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Shell's third-quarter results presentation. This quarter, we've delivered another strong set of results despite a less favorable macro environment. This was driven by solid operational performance across our portfolio continuing the momentum we've built over recent quarters. We further strengthened our balance sheet leaving us well positioned, irrespective of the macro environment.

歡迎觀看殼牌第三季業績發表會。儘管宏觀環境不太有利，本季我們仍取得了另一組強勁的業績。這是由我們整個投資組合穩健的營運表現所推動的，延續了我們最近幾季建立的勢頭。我們進一步強化了資產負債表，無論宏觀環境如何，我們都處於有利地位。

Looking at Q3 in more detail, our adjusted earnings were $6 billion and we delivered $14.7 billion of cash flow from operations. Our integrated gas business performed well with increased LNG liquefaction volumes. In Upstream, we were pleased to complete a number of scheduled maintenance activities ahead of time. This paved the way for higher production output helping us have a good quarter.

更詳細地看第三季度，我們的調整後收益為 60 億美元，營運現金流為 147 億美元。我們的綜合天然氣業務表現良好，液化天然氣液化量增加。在上游，我們很高興提前完成了一些預定的維護活動。這為更高的產量鋪平了道路，幫助我們度過了一個美好的季度。

In Downstream, results were tempered by lower refining margins and continued weak chemical margins. But our marketing business delivered strong results with adjusted earnings above $1 billion as an oil price still well above the reference price used at our Capital Markets Day. The results across our businesses were enhanced by another quarter of robust trading and optimization contributions.

在下游，煉油利潤率下降和化學品利潤率持續疲軟，結果受到影響。但我們的行銷業務取得了強勁的業績，調整後收益超過 10 億美元，因為油價仍遠高於我們資本市場日使用的參考價格。又一個季度強勁的交易和優化貢獻增強了我們整個業務的業績。

Now let me give you some updates on our portfolio. In our Upstream business, we announced the start of gas production at Jerun in Malaysia, adding additional attractive volumes to this important hub. We also took a final investment decision on Vito water flood in the Gulf of Mexico, and we agreed to invest in Surat Phase II in Australia, enhancing longevity and delivering more value from our existing assets.

現在讓我向您介紹我們產品組合的一些最新情況。在我們的上游業務中，我們宣佈在馬來西亞傑倫開始生產天然氣，為這個重要的樞紐增加了額外的有吸引力的產量。我們也對墨西哥灣的維托水驅做出了最終投資決定，並同意投資澳洲蘇拉特第二期工程，以延長使用壽命並從我們的現有資產中創造更多價值。

And we continue to strengthen our leading LNG portfolio following our acquisition of Pavilion and our entry into the Ruwais LNG partnership. We've also secured a 10-year supply contract in Turkey in the third quarter. We've also seen important developments in our Downstream renewables and energy solutions businesses. One example is in Norway where our Northern Lights joint venture has now completed construction. The project is ready to begin permanently storing CO2 to help European industries decarbonize.

在收購 Pavilion 並加入魯維斯液化天然氣合作夥伴關係後，我們繼續加強我們領先的液化天然氣產品組合。第三季我們也在土耳其獲得了為期 10 年的供應合約。我們也看到下游再生能源和能源解決方案業務的重要發展。挪威就是一個例子，我們的北極光合資企業現已完工。該計畫已準備好開始永久儲存二氧化碳，以幫助歐洲工業脫碳。

And last week, we announced the acquisition of a combined cycle power plant in Rhode Island where demand is expected to increase due to growing decarbonization efforts linked to electrification. This acquisition will allow us to provide the critical energy our customers need by leveraging our trading and optimization capabilities in the New England region.

上週，我們宣布收購羅德島州的一家聯合循環發電廠，由於與電氣化相關的脫碳努力不斷加強，預計該發電廠的需求將會增加。此次收購將使我們能夠利用我們在新英格蘭地區的貿易和優化能力來提供客戶所需的關鍵能源。

Now moving to our financial framework, we expect our cash CapEx for the full year 2024 to come in below the lower end of the $22 billion to $25 billion range. While we continue to see many attractive investment opportunities such as the Rhode Island CCGT that we just agreed to purchase. Every investment decision is benchmarked against our shares and given where they've been trading, we continue to preferentially allocate incremental capital towards share buybacks. This shows our ability to invest for the future whilst creating value today.

現在轉向我們的財務框架，我們預計 2024 年全年的現金資本支出將低於 220 億至 250 億美元範圍的下限。我們繼續看到許多有吸引力的投資機會，例如我們剛同意購買的羅德島 CCGT。每項投資決策都以我們的股票為基準，並考慮到它們的交易情況，我們繼續優先將增量資本分配給股票回購。這表明我們有能力在今天創造價值的同時投資未來。

As I said, at the start, our balance sheet has further strengthened, our net debt is at its lowest since 2015, less than half of what it was at the end of 2019. And if we exclude leases, our net debt was under $10 billion at the end of the third quarter. This balanced and consistent approach to capital allocation is what gives us the ability to remain resilient throughout the cycle whilst continuing to offer compelling shareholder returns.

正如我所說，一開始我們的資產負債表進一步加強，我們的淨債務處於 2015 年以來的最低水平，不到 2019 年底的一半。末達1000億元。這種平衡且一致的資本配置方法使我們能夠在整個週期中保持彈性，同時繼續提供引人注目的股東回報。

And so today, we have announced yet another $3.5 billion share buyback program which we expect to complete by the Q4 results announcement in January making this the 12th consecutive quarter in which we have announced $3 billion or more in buybacks.

因此，今天，我們宣布了另一項35 億美元的股票回購計劃，預計該計劃將在1 月份第四季度業績公佈前完成，這將是我們連續第12 個季度宣布30 億美元或更多的股票回購。

To summarize, we have delivered another strong set of results this quarter demonstrating Shell's resilience throughout the cycle. We've continued to make significant progress in strengthening our balance sheet while still being able to buy back another $3.5 billion worth of our shares. And we continue to further strengthen our world class portfolio within a framework of disciplined investment.

總而言之，我們本季又交付了一組強勁的業績，證明了殼牌在整個週期中的韌性。我們在強化資產負債表方面持續取得重大進展，同時仍能回購另外價值 35 億美元的股票。我們將繼續在嚴格的投資框架中進一步加強我們的世界級投資組合。

It's still the early stages of this journey. With more to come. We will play to our strengths and where we have differentiated capabilities as we aim to be the investment case through the energy transition. Thank you.

目前仍處於這趟旅程的早期階段。未來還會有更多。我們將發揮我們的優勢和差異化能力，目標是成為能源轉型的投資案例。謝謝。

Thank you for joining us today. We hope that after watching this presentation and how we are well-positioned to remain resilient throughout the cycle.

感謝您今天加入我們。我們希望在觀看本次演示之後，我們將了解如何在整個週期中保持彈性。

Let me start with a few updates. As you might have seen already, Mero-3 in Brazil has started up, and we have just completed the divestment of Shell Pakistan, another important step in high-grading our existing world class portfolio. Today, Sinead and I will be answering your questions and now, please, could we have just one or two questions each, so that everyone has the opportunity?

讓我從一些更新開始。正如您可能已經看到的，巴西的 Mero-3 已經啟動，我們剛剛完成了殼牌巴基斯坦公司的撤資，這是我們提升現有世界級投資組合的另一個重要步驟。今天，Sinead 和我將回答你們的問題，現在我們可以每人只問一兩個問題，以便每個人都有機會嗎？

And with that, could we have the first one, please, Luke?

那麼，盧克，我們可以要第一個嗎？

Josh Stone, UBS.

喬許‧斯通，瑞銀集團。

Hey, good afternoon. Two questions, please. Firstly, in your prepared remarks, you talked about Shell playing through its strengths through the energy transition. And as I sort of listen to that, and reread it, I just want to sort of unpick what that really means. Because on one hand, I could interpret that as business which is going to keep investing on low carbon assets where it sees it has some natural advantage.

嘿，下午好。請教兩個問題。首先，在您準備好的發言中，您談到了殼牌透過能源轉型發揮其優勢。當我聽並重讀它時，我只是想弄清楚它的真正含義。因為一方面，我可以將其解釋為企業將繼續投資低碳資產，因為它認為它具有一些天然優勢。

But on the other, I could also interpret that as Shell is going to stick to what it does best. So if I look at these results, that would be integrated gas, upstream, a more profitable mobility business. So can you just clarify? So where do you see Shell strengths today and what that really means?

但另一方面，我也可以將其解讀為殼牌將堅持其最擅長的領域。因此，如果我看一下這些結果，就會發現上游綜合天然氣是一項利潤較高的移動業務。那你能澄清一下嗎？那麼，您認為殼牌如今的優勢在哪裡？

And then secondly, on the cash flow, impressive result this quarter. Cash flow growth when in a declining commodity environment, particularly versus the peer group. If I look at look over history, your fourth quarter normally is when there's a weak cash flow performance in the year, sort of the way costs are accrued. Is there any reason this time might be different just in the light of the sort of cost savings you're seeing inside the business? Thank you.

其次，在現金流方面，本季的業績令人印象深刻。在大宗商品下滑的環境下，現金流量會成長，特別是與同業相比。如果我回顧歷史，第四季通常是當年現金流表現疲軟的時期，這與成本的累積方式類似。僅僅考慮到您在企業內部看到的成本節省，這次是否有任何原因可能會有所不同？謝謝。

Josh, thank you for two good questions. To start off with, I'll take the first one and then ask Sinead to cover the second one.

喬什，謝謝你提出兩個好問題。首先，我會講第一個，然後請 Sinead 講第二個。

On your first question, if I start maybe with just the beliefs that we have as a company, we fundamentally believe that this energy transition is going to be a multidecadal journey. We fundamentally believe that you're going to require multiple energy forms to be able to navigate the energy transition. And we do see that the energy system will start to see more uncertainty and more volatility in the context of geopolitical change, which is demand supply cycles and the like, of course, the intermittency of renewables as well.

關於你的第一個問題，如果我從我們作為一家公司的信念開始，我們從根本上相信這種能源轉型將是一個數十年的旅程。我們從根本上相信，您將需要多種能源形式才能實現能源轉型。我們確實看到，在地緣政治變化的背景下，能源系統將開始出現更多的不確定性和更大的波動性，即需求供應週期等，當然還有再生能源的間歇性。

And so we want to position ourselves for that set of beliefs. What does that mean? It plays much more to the latter interpretation that you had. We start from the perspective of believing that oil and gas have a critical role in the energy transition for a long time to come. I'd say gas in our view is a foundational part of the future and the energy complex for at least the next few decades. And so our leading advantage in LNG is one, we want to continue to hone over the coming years and you've seen the suite of announcements that we have had to be able to do that.

因此，我們希望為自己定位一套信念。這意味著什麼？它對你的後一種解釋更重要。我們的出發點是相信石油和天然氣在未來很長一段時間內在能源轉型中發揮關鍵作用。我想說，在我們看來，天然氣是未來的基礎部分，也是至少未來幾十年能源綜合體的基礎部分。因此，我們在液化天然氣領域的領先優勢是，我們希望在未來幾年繼續磨練，您已經看到了一系列我們必須能夠做到這一點的公告。

In addition, we continue to believe in the important role that low carbon, low carbon intensity oil have. And so we are very focused on how we can continue to be able to maintain our liquids production. We can deliver that crude either to our own infrastructure or for that matter. And then I'd say some of the real strength we have are our customers understanding what they need, so take the marine sector, understanding how that sector is evolving to be able to allow us to meet the growing demand, more and more moving into LNG with time into bio-LNG and possibly one day into alternative ELNG or for that matter, synthetic LNG.

此外，我們仍然相信低碳、低碳強度石油的重要作用。因此，我們非常關注如何繼續維持我們的液體生產。我們可以將原油運送到我們自己的基礎設施或就此而言。然後我想說，我們擁有的一些真正優勢是我們的客戶了解他們的需求，因此以海洋部門為例，了解該部門如何發展，以便能夠讓我們滿足不斷增長的需求，越來越多地進入隨著時間的推移，液化天然氣將轉變為生物液化天然氣，並可能有一天轉變為替代性液化天然氣或合成液化天然氣。

I would also say that our trading capability is second to none. And so in a world where you require multiple energy forms and you need companies to stitch them across the entire value chain, I think we are uniquely positioned. So we are playing to those competitive strengths that allow us to win in that future that I described. Sinead?

我還想說，我們的交易能力是首屈一指的。因此，在一個需要多種能源形式並且需要公司將它們整合到整個價值鏈的世界中，我認為我們處於獨特的地位。因此，我們正在發揮那些競爭優勢，使我們能夠在我所描述的未來中獲勝。西妮德？

Thank you. Thank you, Josh. So indeed, your question is really around the cash flow and thank you for pointing out. It's very strong cash flow for this quarter as you're aware. But in terms of Q4, you're talking different uplifts coming through. What I would say is what we're doing as part of the cultural change in channels to make sure that we're building a company which is very much focused around consistency and resilience. So of course, that means that whatever happens, we will be able to weather it.

謝謝。謝謝你，喬許。事實上，你的問題實際上是圍繞著現金流的，謝謝你的指出。如您所知，本季的現金流非常強勁。但就第四季度而言，你正在談論不同的提升。我想說的是，作為通路文化變革的一部分，我們正在做的事情是為了確保我們正在建立一家非常注重一致性和彈性的公司。當然，這意味著無論發生什麼，我們都能夠度過難關。

What we're doing on OpEx is driving that consistency through it. And you're seeing some of the cost take outs and I'm sure we will get to that later. In terms of the free cash flow for the fourth quarter, a number of things will occur. Of course, we have Pearl GTL done with a major turnaround which will be hundreds of millions of impact in that quarter.

我們在營運支出方面所做的就是透過它來推動這種一致性。您會看到一些成本被削減，我相信我們稍後會討論這個問題。就第四季的自由現金流而言，將會發生很多事情。當然，我們已經完成了 Pearl GTL 的重大轉變，這將在該季度產生數億的影響。

We also, of course, have normal tax phasing that happens in Q4 and things like the German mineral oil tax that gets paid. So those are usuals that occur in the fourth quarter. I think OpEx, we are very much on top of it focusing on throughout the organization. But all of those things, do they worry me? No, you know exactly where we are in terms of the resilience of this company and the balance sheet, which I'm sure we will spend a lot of time talking about today. So thank you.

當然，我們也有第四季發生的正常稅收階段，以及繳納的德國礦物油稅等。這些都是第四季發生的常態。我認為營運支出是我們非常重視的，重點是整個組織。但這一切讓我擔心嗎？不，你確切地知道我們在這家公司的彈性和資產負債表方面處於什麼位置，我相信我們今天會花很多時間討論這一點。所以謝謝你。

Thank you for that, Sinead. Josh, thank you for the question. Luke, can we have the second question please?

謝謝你，西妮德。喬什，謝謝你的提問。路克，我們可以問第二個問題嗎？

Ryan Todd, Piper Sandler.

瑞恩·托德，派珀·桑德勒。

Great. Thanks. Maybe a couple questions for me. First, on the capital side. Just impressive performance and driving capital costs down this year with '24 likely to come in below the low end of the range. Can you maybe walk through what are some of the biggest drivers of lower capital budget this year? And as we look into 2025, how we should think about what this implies for 2025 CapEx and whether we might see it fall further?

偉大的。謝謝。也許有幾個問題想問我。首先，在資本方面。今年的表現令人印象深刻，並推動資本成本下降，'24 可能會低於該範圍的低端。您能否介紹一下今年資本預算下降的一些最大驅動因素？當我們展望 2025 年時，我們應該如何思考這對 2025 年資本支出意味著什麼以及我們是否可能會看到它進一步下降？

And then maybe on the second front -- for a second question, sprint is kind of turning things around particularly in terms of capital allocation, driving down costs. Some of which has been doing lack of a better word stuff with your money as well as towards the coming years. I would think there's dial that will shift. With that in mind, can you maybe talk a little bit about what you view is as your portfolio of investment opportunities, where you feel like you're particularly well positioned, strengthen further the Q and of investment opportunities particularly on the upstream side?

然後也許在第二條戰線上——對於第二個問題，衝刺正在扭轉局面，特別是在資本配置方面，降低成本。其中一些一直在用你的錢以及未來幾年做缺乏更好的詞的事情。我認為有一個轉盤會移動。考慮到這一點，您能否談談您認為自己的投資機會組合是什麼，您覺得自己處於特別有利的位置，進一步加強了投資機會的質量，特別是在上游方面？

Super. Thanks, Ryan. I'll touch on those and then invite Sinead if she wants to add as well. Let me start with capital allocation. Where we see real strength at the moment is our ability to create incremental value from in particular, our LNG complex. You've seen us lean into that, for example, with the Pavilion acquisition just recently the recent happenings tons. We see that continuing to be a strength, whether it's through LNG projects, LNG Canada T4, the Qatari LNG projects, Nigeria. We will continue to lean into that space.

極好的。謝謝，瑞安。我會談談這些，然後邀請西妮德（如果她也想補充的話）。讓我從資本配置開始。目前我們看到的真正優勢是我們創造增量價值的能力，特別是我們的液化天然氣綜合設施。你已經看到我們傾向於這一點，例如，最近發生了很多事情，收購了 Pavilion。我們看到，無論是透過液化天然氣計畫、加拿大液化天然氣 T4、卡達液化天然氣計畫或奈及利亞，這仍然是一種優勢。我們將繼續關注這個領域。

On upstream, we have an established strength in our deep-water business and in particular in the basins in which we are playing. You see that capital coming through in areas like the Gulf of Mexico. We've just defined investment decision on the second phase of the Vito project. We have also, of course, our Brazilian assets where again, we took an FID recently on Atapu too and I mentioned earlier, the Mero-3 startup expect more in the Deep water space as we continue to mature, the funnel of opportunities we had, and we've talked about 500,000 barrels per day that we wanted to bring to fruition in this first sprint. We updated you last quarter to say we're just halfway through that. So a lot more to come there.

在上游，我們在深水業務方面擁有既定的實力，特別是在我們所在的盆地。你會看到資本流經墨西哥灣等地區。我們剛剛確定了 Vito 專案第二期的投資決策。當然，我們還有我們的巴西資產，我們最近也對Atapu 進行了最終投資決定，我之前提到過，隨著我們不斷成熟，我們擁有的機會漏斗，Mero-3 新創公司期望在深水領域獲得更多資產，我們已經討論了我們希望在第一個衝刺中實現的每天 500,000 桶的產量。我們在上個季度向您通報了最新情況，表示我們的工作剛完成一半。所以還有很多事情要去那裡。

We are also being selective in investing in growth in our marketing businesses; not typically capital intensive, but you're right. We are indeed just becoming much better, much more efficient in the way we generate value. So to give you a sense, take our marketing business for this quarter, the past three quarters, year to date at roughly the same average crude.

我們也選擇性地投資於行銷業務的成長；通常不是資本密集的，但你是對的。事實上，我們創造價值的方式正在變得更好、更有效率。因此，為了讓您有所了解，以我們本季、過去三個季度、今年迄今的行銷業務來看，平均原油價格大致相同。

We have incrementally generated 20% more earnings. That's just doing our work better. And of course, that inherently allows us the opportunity to see more value to for example, bolt on additional opportunities, but we need to earn the right to do that. We need to continue to hold.

我們的收入逐漸增加了 20%。這只是讓我們的工作做得更好。當然，這本質上讓我們有機會看到更多價值，例如抓住更多機會，但我們需要贏得這樣做的權利。我們需要繼續堅持。

Indeed, I mean what we are seeing is a real focused and high bar for all capital allocation. We've been very clear, our North Star is free cash flow per share growth, short term and long term, right. So that starts with making sure that the capital investment dollars that we are deploying today are going to earn us returns. You know our history, we've had some challenges in that space. This management team has said we are going to get on top of this and make this absolutely our focus and an area we want to improve. So that's what we're doing.

事實上，我的意思是我們看到的是所有資本配置的真正集中和高標準。我們非常清楚，我們的北極星是每股自由現金流的成長，無論是短期或長期，對吧。因此，首先要確保我們今天部署的資本投資能為我們帶來回報。你知道我們的歷史，我們在這個領域遇到了一些挑戰。該管理團隊表示，我們將解決這個問題，並將其作為我們的重點和我們想要改進的領域。這就是我們正在做的事情。

Our organic spend indeed is coming down to below $22 billion. That's what we want to be able to capture those growth opportunities as they come, as we did recently with the 600-megawatt combined cycle gas turbine that you heard Sinead talk about in the video or for that matter, as we did with Pavilion.

我們的有機支出確實降至 220 億美元以下。這就是我們希望能夠抓住這些成長機會，就像我們最近對600 兆瓦聯合循環燃氣渦輪機所做的那樣，您可以在影片中聽到Sinead 談論這一點，或者就這一點而言，就像我們對Pavilion 所做的那樣。

So we want to create the space while still staying in control and continuing to manage. For next year, the guidance hasn't changed. It's $22 billion to $25 billion as we continue to be really purposeful and the way we are investing our organic capital and keeping the opportunities to create some option value for our shareholders.

因此，我們希望在創造空間的同時仍然保持控制並繼續管理。明年的指導方針沒有改變。這是 220 億至 250 億美元，因為我們繼續保持真正的目標，以及我們投資有機資本的方式，並保留為股東創造一些選擇權價值的機會。

I think the only thing I would add, Wael, is that this is what dynamic capital allocation looks like. We're investing for value, whether it's to new opportunities or to share buybacks. Thank you.

韋爾，我想我唯一要補充的是，這就是動態資本配置的樣子。我們投資是為了價值，無論是新機會或股票回購。謝謝。

I think the only thing I would add, Wael, is that this is what dynamic capital allocation looks like. We're investing for value, whether it's to new opportunities or to share buybacks. Thank you.

韋爾，我想我唯一要補充的是，這就是動態資本配置的樣子。我們投資是為了價值，無論是新機會還是股票回購。謝謝。

Luke, can we go to the next one please?

盧克，我們可以轉到下一首嗎？

Lydia Rainforth, Barclays.

莉迪亞·雷恩福斯，巴克萊銀行。

Good afternoon both and thanks for taking my question. Two if I could. The first one and it's just a lovely memory. But can you take us on the appeal on the Hague court ruling to cut Scope 3 emissions [45]? And when might we expect a decision from the court? And can you talk us through Shell's options in both the case that you lose the appeal and then if you win as well, what do you think the outcomes are?

下午好，感謝您提出我的問題。如果可以的話，兩個。第一個，這只是一個美好的回憶。但您能否帶領我們對海牙法院削減範圍 3 排放量的裁決提出上訴[45]？我們什麼時候可以期待法院做出裁決？您能否向我們介紹一下殼牌在上訴失敗和勝訴的情況下的選擇，您認為結果是什麼？

And then secondly, just on the LNG side, integrated gas, we certainly need to be having less seasonality than we have seen before during 3Q. And is that something you think continues? And can you help us think about that LNG market into '25? Thanks.

其次，在液化天然氣方面，綜合天然氣方面，我們當然需要比第三季之前看到的季節性更少。您認為這種情況會持續下去嗎？您能否幫助我們思考 25 世紀的液化天然氣市場？謝謝。

Lydia, thank you for those two questions. Can I start maybe with you, Sinead on the second question? I'll take the first question.

莉迪亞，謝謝你提出這兩個問題。Sinead，我可以先跟你談第二個問題嗎？我來回答第一個問題。

Certainly. And indeed Lydia, I think you're spot on. We are seeing less seasonality coming through at the moment. It's definitely dampened. What you would have seen that those changes between what would have been summer and winter and a lot more volatility because of that, what you now see is that volatility aside because those temperature differences just aren't there in this the same way.

當然。事實上，莉迪亞，我認為你說得對。目前我們看到季節性減少。肯定是受潮了您可能會看到夏季和冬季之間的變化以及因此而產生的更多波動，但現在您看到的是波動性除外，因為這些溫差並不以相同的方式存在。

And we do think that that's probably going to play forward as well. That's what we see as well. That will play out of course, in what you see across the market. But you'll also see it in integrated gas results for us as well as a link to a little bit we talked about earlier as well, which was around just what I see for Q4, whether it's the pearl turnaround that will come through. It's also just that movement of cargoes between this quarter and next.

我們確實認為這也可能會持續下去。這也是我們所看到的。當然，從你在整個市場上看到的情況來看，這將會發揮作用。但您還會在我們的綜合天然氣結果中看到它，以及我們之前討論過的一些內容的鏈接，這正是我在第四季度看到的，無論是否會實現珍珠轉變。這也只是本季和下季之間的貨物流動。

Lydia on the MD appeal, of course, the judgment comes out on November 12. We continue to be confident in the strength of our case and our conviction that -- to truly get the impact that we hope for the energy transition on route to the net zero outcome that we all aspire to. This is not a matter to be held by the courts. It's best to be done by a government looking at the entire ecosystem and very much trying to drive the demand side rather than trying to manage one company on supply side.

Lydia對MD提出上訴，當然，判決結果會在11月12日出來。我們仍然對我們的理由和信念充滿信心——真正實現我們希望的能源轉型影響，實現我們都渴望的淨零結果。這不是法院該審理的問題。最好由政府來完成，政府著眼於整個生態系統，並努力推動需求方，而不是試圖在供應方管理一家公司。

The court will decide. I think it's important to recognize November 12 is a way point because if I am to guess at the moment, I would say irrespective of what the judgment is, one of the two sides is going to appeal and take it to the Supreme Court that could take years. And so where we are focused is on delivering our strategy and our strategy is unchanged. We've talked about with less emissions. We are already moving at pace and with urgency.

法庭將做出裁決。我認為重要的是要認識到 11 月 12 日是一個轉折點，因為如果我現在猜測的話，我會說無論判決是什麼，雙方之一都會上訴並將其提交給最高法院，這可能會導致需要幾年的時間。因此，我們的重點是實施我們的策略，而我們的策略沒有改變。我們已經討論過減少排放。我們已經在快速而緊迫地採取行動。

So we have already been able to reduce our methane emissions by 70% since 2016. Our routine flaring by 90% since then are the most ambitious, not just in our sector but arguably more broadly of any sector with a 50% reduction aspired to by 2030. And we're over 60% of the way there. And we have set Scope 3 emissions reduction targets which we are on track to meet both intensity and absolute.

因此，自 2016 年以來，我們已經將甲烷排放量減少了 70%。從那時起，我們的常規燃燒量減少了90%，這是最雄心勃勃的，不僅在我們的行業中，而且可以說是在更廣泛的行業中，我們希望到2030 年減少50% 的燃燒量。我們已經完成了 60% 以上。我們已經制定了範圍 3 減排目標，我們有望實現強度和絕對減排目標。

So we are unwavering in our commitment to continue to drive that more value with less emissions and look forward to seeing what that way point of November 12 looks with the confidence that we have that we have a strong case there.

因此，我們堅定不移地致力於繼續以更少的排放推動更多價值，並期待看到 11 月 12 日這一點的情況，並相信我們有充分的理由。

Next question please.

請下一個問題。

Biraj Borkhataria, Royal Bank of Canada.

Biraj Borkhataria，加拿大皇家銀行。

Hi. Thanks for taking my questions. I just had to follow up on the CapEx guidance. Last call I asked this question, but you mentioned you had a number of payments towards the end of this year. That would -- that's why you kept the guidance. So could you just let us know whether the part of the reduction today is just phasing into 2025 or is the overall spend plan down for that period -- for '24, '25.

你好。感謝您回答我的問題。我只需要跟進資本支出指南。上次通話時我問了這個問題，但你提到你在今年年底有很多付款。這就是你保留指導的原因。那麼，您能否讓我們知道今天的部分削減是否只是分階段到 2025 年，還是該時期（24 年、25 年）的總體支出計劃有所下降。

And then secondly, I think just on capital framework, you know, one of the things that does separate you from the peers is how strong the (inaudible). And obviously, it shows through in slide 9, obviously, the environment has turned more negative relative to the last couple of years and you have a substantial buyback program in place.

其次，我認為僅在資本框架上，你知道，將你與同行區分開來的事情之一就是你的資本有多強大（聽不清楚）。顯然，幻燈片 9 中顯示，相對於過去幾年，環境變得更加負面，並且您已經制定了實質性的回購計劃。

So just wondering how you're thinking about where you want the balance sheet to be because the balance sheet obviously affords you flexibility and optionality. At the same time, your shares are cheap. So you you know may make sense to keep up the purchases. So just trying to get a sense of how you're thinking about those two competing factors. Thank you.

因此，只是想知道您如何考慮資產負債表的位置，因為資產負債表顯然為您提供了靈活性和選擇性。同時，你的股票很便宜。所以你知道繼續購買可能是有意義的。因此，只是想了解您如何看待這兩個相互競爭的因素。謝謝。

Thanks Biraj.

謝謝比拉傑。

Sinead, do you want to take both?

西妮德，你想兩個都帶嗎？

Yeah, happy to. On the first one on capital Biraj, very simply, so In terms for this year, it is below $22 billion and that is simply decisions that we have made. Of course, we have payments that will still go out in Q4. And those are there such as, you know, we just bought the power plant, Rhode Island Power Plant, etcetera with pavilion that still needs to complete whether it's now or into next year will depend on the closing process. But indeed, that's why we're keeping the $5 billion as well.

是的，很高興。關於資本 Biraj 的第一個，非常簡單，所以就今年而言，它低於 220 億美元，這只是我們做出的決定。當然，我們的付款仍將在第四季度支付。你知道，我們剛剛購買了發電廠、羅德島發電廠等，其展館仍需要完成，無論是現在還是明年，都將取決於關閉過程。但事實上，這也是我們保留 50 億美元的原因。

With respect to the balance sheet. You're right, we have an extremely strong balance sheet and you know, I've been consciously strengthening this balance sheet to position the company for exactly this to allow us to be able to perform and to be positioned in good times or bad times. And that's exactly where we're at. So it ensures -- frankly, it doesn't matter whether we, we don't even need to look through the quarter in terms of cash flows for distributions, we're able to look through the quarter as well in terms of the macro and that's where our balance sheet allows us.

關於資產負債表。你是對的，我們有一個非常強大的資產負債表，你知道，我一直在有意識地加強這個資產負債表，以使公司為此定位，使我們能夠在好時期或壞時期表現和定位。這正是我們現在的處境。因此，它確保 - 坦率地說，我們甚至不需要從分配的現金流量角度審視本季度，我們也能夠從宏觀角度審視本季這就是我們的資產負債表所允許的。

And it just means that we're operating from a position of strength without a diet. So, one of the previous quarters, which was -- sorry, one of the previous questions, which was about next quarter where we were asked, what do you see coming through? And I've talked about, the fact that we'll have a pearl turnaround, we'll have the normal payments that come through and we discussed all of those as well.

這只是意味著我們在沒有節食的情況下以強健的狀態進行操作。所以，前一個季度，對不起，之前的問題之一是關於下個季度的，我們被問到，你認為會發生什麼？我已經談到，我們將實現珍珠週轉，我們將獲得正常付款，我們也討論了所有這些。

The fact that we had actually -- this quarter, we had some of the (inaudibel) from Q4 into Q3 as well. All of those things mean that I know, you know what will come in Q4 including potentially some lease if we get LNG Canada, the pipeline in or not, whether we get pavilion close or not. So the leases might go up as well. So yeah, my net debt might go up, but my balance sheet is so resilient. That's exactly what we've been working for. It means that we're operating from a position of confidence, irrespective of the (inaudible).

事實上，我們實際上——這個季度，我們也從第四季度到第三季度有一些（無聲的）。所有這些事情意味著我知道，你知道第四季度會發生什麼，包括如果我們獲得加拿大液化天然氣公司、管道是否開通，無論我們是否關閉展館，可能會出現一些租賃。因此，租金也可能會上漲。所以，是的，我的淨債務可能會增加，但我的資產負債表很有彈性。這正是我們一直在努力的目標。這意味著無論情況如何，我們都充滿信心地開展業務（聽不清楚）。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, Biraj, for the question. Thanks, Sinead. Luke, can we go to the next question, please?

謝謝比拉傑的提問。謝謝，西妮德。路克，我們可以進入下一個問題嗎？

Alastair Syme, Citi.

阿拉斯泰爾·賽姆，花旗銀行。

Thanks Sinead. And can I just really one question? I mean you to look to make space in the capital budget. Can I really ask how you see the landscape for asset prices across -- different parts of the business, the Upstream, Downstream. I mean, normally I guess the best deals are done when sellers have a bit of stress. So, you know, are you seeing stress across these different parts of the system at any point? Thank you.

謝謝西妮德。我真的可以只問一個問題嗎？我的意思是你要在資本預算中騰出空間。我真的可以問一下，您如何看待業務不同部分、上游、下游的資產價格格局。我的意思是，通常我認為最好的交易是在賣家有一點壓力時完成的。那麼，您是否在任何時候都看到系統的這些不同部分面臨壓力？謝謝。

Alistair. Thank you for that question. I think the frame of your question is a good one because I think it speaks to how we're thinking about this.

亞歷斯泰爾.謝謝你提出這個問題。我認為你的問題框架很好，因為我認為它說明了我們如何思考這個問題。

We are trying to be as dynamic as we can be across these different parts of the energy system. And we are trying to avoid dogma in that sense that we have to sort of buy in that particular strategic segment because the volatility and the uncertainty that we are seeing. And the reality is that various companies are experiencing means that you will have opportunities and we just need to be able to move at pace to create value for opportunities.

我們正在努力在能源系統的這些不同部分保持活力。我們正在努力避免教條，因為我們看到了波動性和不確定性，所以我們必須在特定的策略領域中購買。現實情況是，各種公司正在經歷的事情意味著您將擁有機會，而我們只需要能夠加快步伐，為機會創造價值。

We want to be value hunters. And so we want to be patient and back to Sinead's earlier point around building the balance sheet and the strength and changing our diet to a lower organic capital diet affords us that optionality.

我們想成為價值獵人。因此，我們要保持耐心，回到西尼德之前關於建立資產負債表和實力的觀點，並將我們的飲食改為較低的有機資本飲食，這為我們提供了這種選擇。

So what do we see at the moment? I think undoubtedly the opportunities that we have seen in particular in the integrated gas space have been attractive, in particular because we are finding that with the same portfolio, given our trading capabilities, we are simply able to create more value than others. And that is giving us an alpha where we can actually find space with the potential seller and that's attractive and I suspect that plays longer term and something we continue to look at.

那我們現在看到了什麼？我認為，毫無疑問，我們在綜合天然氣領域看到的機會很有吸引力，特別是因為我們發現，在相同的投資組合中，考慮到我們的交易能力，我們能夠比其他人創造更多的價值。這給了我們一個阿爾法，我們可以真正找到與潛在賣家的空間，這很有吸引力，我懷疑這會發揮更長期的作用，也是我們繼續關注的事情。

Upstream, I think we are at a more transactable price but still every asset -- every seller is in a different vantage point around what is the right price to transact at, different realities. We don't want to simply buy resource, we want to buy a resource where we can unlock incremental value and contribute to our free cash flow per share. And so we are patient. We know that between now and 2030 we have a very good runway, great projects to be able to deliver. And so we are waiting to see what the right points in that cycle are, to be able to have these boltons as we have tried to do to add to our current strength.

在上游，我認為我們處於更易於交易的價格，但仍然是每種資產——每個賣家對於交易的正確價格都處於不同的有利位置，不同的現實。我們不想簡單地購買資源，我們想購買一種可以釋放增量價值並為每股自由現金流做出貢獻的資源。所以我們很有耐心。我們知道，從現在到 2030 年，我們有一個非常好的跑道，能夠交付偉大的專案。因此，我們正在等待，看看該週期中的正確點是什麼，以便能夠擁有這些螺栓，就像我們試圖做的那樣，以增加我們當前的實力。

I think in the downstream and renewable space, it's fair to say that we have built and we have acquired some of the key platforms that we need. Nature Energy was a core part of a broader fit that we needed as we looked at our integrated gas value chain for the future and wanted to be able to look at decarbonised options for that. So we don't need to buy more. We just need to be able to develop our current platform at the pace that the market allows.

我認為在下游和再生能源領域，可以公平地說，我們已經建立並獲得了一些我們需要的關鍵平台。當我們審視未來的綜合天然氣價值鏈並希望能夠為此尋找脫碳方案時，自然能源是我們所需要的更廣泛契合的核心部分。所以我們不需要買更多。我們只需要能夠以市場允許的速度開發我們目前的平台。

And that's why you see us just selectively investing in that space, in the marketing space in general. We will put small investments to, for example, augment our position in India around lubricants as we did recently, but we don't need to spend a lot of capital there. And so really, we are holding on to that capital and making sure the bar is high between putting it into buybacks or putting it into the right long term opportunities for us.

這就是為什麼我們只是有選擇地投資於該領域，即整個行銷領域。例如，我們將進行小額投資，以增強我們在印度潤滑油領域的地位，就像我們最近所做的那樣，但我們不需要在那裡花費大量資金。事實上，我們正​​在持有這些資本，並確保將其用於回購或將其用於我們正確的長期機會之間的門檻很高。

Thank you very much for the question Alastair. Let me go back to Luke. If we can go to the next question, please.

非常感謝阿拉斯泰爾提出的問題。讓我回到盧克。如果我們可以進入下一個問題，請。

Roger Read, Wells Fargo.

羅傑·里德，富國銀行。

Yeah. Thank you. Good morning or good afternoon to you, I guess. I'd like to hit on two things. One, as you think about the performance this quarter and the outlook in terms of cost controls or optimization as was mentioned earlier, maybe a little more info on what you mean by optimization. We've heard about, reducing head count in the company and so forth, how that's maybe flowing through to this, that big question number one.

是的。謝謝。我想，祝你早安或下午好。我想談兩件事。第一，當您考慮本季度的業績以及前面提到的成本控製或優化方面的前景時，也許可以更多地了解您所說的優化的含義。我們聽說過，減少公司的員工人數等等，這可能會如何影響這個第一大問題。

And then the other question, just anything else you can offer on the trading performance, given, what was generally a relatively low volatility in, in terms of commodity prices, just maybe what drove the performance there? Thank you.

然後另一個問題是，考慮到大宗商品價格的波動性相對較低，您可以提供有關交易表現的任何其他信息，也許是什麼推動了那裡的表現？謝謝。

Thank you for that Roger. Do you want to start with the second one?

謝謝你，羅傑。您想從第二個開始嗎？

Sure. Yes. Thank you very much Roger. And in terms of trading, indeed, it was a lower volatility than we've seen in previous quarters. What do we see play out across our portfolio? You normally see it between two areas, largely between our integrated gas business and then largely in terms of the products crude and products trading there.

當然。是的。非常感謝羅傑。事實上，就交易而言，波動性比我們前幾季看到的要低。我們認為我們的投資組合會發揮什麼作用？你通常會在兩個領域之間看到它，主要是在我們的綜合天然氣業務之間，然後主要是在原油產品和那裡的產品交易方面。

On the integrated gas side, what we saw was pretty much the same as the previous quarter. So we had the same as Q2. So basically our traders had the ability to have a bit more length because they had more volumes. Some of those volumes have come from Q4 into Q3, but they were able to trade around it in quite a healthy price environment.

在綜合天然氣方面，我們看到的情況與上一季幾乎相同。所以我們的情況與第二季相同。所以基本上我們的交易者有能力擁有更長的長度，因為他們有更多的交易量。其中一些交易量來自第四季度至第三季度，但他們能夠在相當健康的價格環境中進行交易。

And therefore, although there wasn't volatility, we did have some length and therefore we were able to equal out in terms of the performance Q2 versus Q3. Then if you look at crude and products or the product side of things, of course, we did see that dampen significantly. And of course, that's about the availability of what's out there at the moment, but that showed in terms of our chemicals and products performance and you saw it coming down versus Q2 as well. Thank you.

因此，儘管沒有波動，但我們確實有一定的長度，因此我們能夠在第二季和第三季的表現方面持平。然後，如果你看看原油和產品或產品方面，當然，我們確實看到了這種情況的顯著抑制。當然，這與目前現有產品的可用性有關，但這體現在我們的化學品和產品性能方面，您也看到它與第二季度相比有所下降。謝謝。

Roger to your first question around cost optimization. And the like -- I'd start by saying I've talked about in the past the transformation of shell. This is a multiyear journey. This is not a few quarters, but I'm very pleased with the momentum we have built. And, you know, while I can give you a long laundry list of the different elements of what's contributing to that, whether it's from portfolio activities, divestments, which by the way, don't even include Pakistan, which we announced today, nor [Buk] Jurong in Singapore. All of those are yet to come in.

請回答您關於成本優化的第一個問題。諸如此類的事情——我首先要說的是，我過去曾討論過 shell 的轉變。這是一個多年的旅程。這不是幾個季度的事，但我對我們所建立的勢頭感到非常滿意。而且，你知道，雖然我可以給你列出一份長長的清單，列出造成這種情況的不同因素，無論是投資組合活動還是撤資，順便說一句，這甚至不包括我們今天宣布的巴基斯坦，也不包括[Buk] 新加坡裕廊。所有這些都還沒進來。

There is a lot to do with in particular contractor headcount. But more importantly, it's the way we do work. I recognize you don't get to see what I'm seeing in terms of the activities happening in the organization. What I can tell you is I have very high confidence that we are able to sustain these improvements for some time to come because a lot of them will start to materialize in the coming quarters in the coming years.

特別是承包商人數有很多關係。但更重要的是，這是我們的工作方式。我認識到您無法看到我所看到的組織中發生的活動。我可以告訴你的是，我非常有信心我們能夠在未來一段時間內維持這些改進，因為其中許多改進將在未來幾年的未來幾季開始實現。

And so for me, that is what truly a culture change is not trying to pull a couple of levers and hope it changes. But working through just the standards we use de-bureaucratizing, simplifying the organization, getting a lot clearer on what we are trying to achieve and aligning the organization in pursuit of that. And that's why when people say, why do you preferentially allocate capital towards buybacks, it's because of what we see, we see that runway of continuous improvement ahead of us and that's what we are continuing to buy into.

所以對我來說，真正的文化變革並不是試圖拉動幾個槓桿並希望它能改變。但僅透過我們使用的標準來消除官僚主義，簡化組織，更清楚地了解我們想要實現的目標，並調整組織以實現這一目標。這就是為什麼當人們說，為什麼你優先將資本分配給回購，這是因為我們所看到的，我們看到前面有一條持續改進的跑道，這就是我們繼續買入的東西。

Thank you for that question, Roger. Luke, can we go to the next question please?

謝謝你提出這個問題，羅傑。路克，我們可以進入下一個問題嗎？

Michele Della Vigna, Goldman Sachs.

米歇爾·德拉·維尼亞，高盛。

Thank you and congratulations on the strong results. Two questions, if I may. The first one is on cost cutting, you are now effectively wrapping up the first year. You've made tremendous progress towards the $2 billion to $3 billion. I'm just wondering if you are starting to identify more opportunities as you go into the next phase of your efficiency program.

謝謝您並祝賀我們取得了優異的成績。如果可以的話，有兩個問題。第一個是削減成本，你現在實際上已經結束了第一年。你們已經在 20 億至 30 億美元的目標上取得了巨大進展。我只是想知道，當您進入效率計劃的下一階段時，您是否開始發現更多機會。

And secondly, going back to exploration, you've had success in Namibia, I believe you probably looked into the Galp. I believe you shared data with Total. So you probably have a very good understanding of that area after everything that you've learned. I was just wondering how you're thinking about that, that region and your opportunity for growth there towards, you know, the end of this decade or the beginning of the next one. Thank you.

其次，回到探索，你在納米比亞取得了成功，我相信你可能研究過高浦河。我相信您與道達爾共享了數據。因此，在您學習完所有內容之後，您可能對該領域有了很好的了解。我只是想知道您如何看待這個地區，以及您在這個十年結束或下一個十年開始時在那裡的成長機會。謝謝。

Yes, thanks Michael. I'll go for the second first and then come back. And if you want to add to the cost cutting discussion. I think Michael, to Namibia, indeed, we are privileged in a new basin like that to have so many players and the ability to be able to learn from others. So we're not having to de risk it on our own dime. We have already put quite a bit of capital for our own acreage. But of course, we continue to learn from others and to continue to look at opportunities there.

是的，謝謝邁克爾。我先去第二個，然後再回來。如果您想加入成本削減討論。我認為邁克爾，對於納米比亞來說，確實，我們很榮幸能在這樣一個新盆地擁有如此多的球員，並且有能力向他人學習。因此，我們不必用自己的錢來降低風險。我們已經為自己的土地投入了大量資金。當然，我們會繼續向他人學習，並繼續尋找那裡的機會。

I think what is universally agreed is that there is a significant amount of resource there that goes without saying. I think it would be fair. I don't know if that's universally agreed, but at least my strong perspective is it is very challenging acreage, in particular around the movability of the resource, the permeability and the like.

我認為人們普遍認為那裡有大量的資源，這是不言而喻的。我認為這是公平的。我不知道這是否得到普遍同意，但至少我強烈的觀點是，這是一個非常具有挑戰性的區域，特別是在資源的可移動性、滲透性等方面。

And so a lot of our focus is on figuring out whether we can find ways to be able to develop commercially investable projects. Because as I said earlier, our bar is high for investments and if it cannot pass water, then we are not going to invest in it. And that's what we are focused on right now, just really understanding and learning from everything happening around us before we have to make a decision on the acreage. Suffice it to say at this stage that we haven't yet reached a conclusion on that, and we hope to be able to do so in the coming months.

因此，我們的重點是弄清楚我們是否能夠找到開發可商業投資項目的方法。因為正如我剛才所說，我們的投資門檻很高，如果過不了水，我們就不會投資。這就是我們現在關注的重點，在我們必須對面積做出決定之前，真正了解並從我們周圍發生的一切中學習。可以說，現階段我們尚未就此得出結論，我們希望能夠在未來幾個月內得出結論。

Sinead?

西妮德？

Indeed? And thank you. On the OpEx, I think while you answered quite a lot about that previously. So just to add to that, and there's quite a lot that of course has hit headlines, et cetera that hasn't played through yet. So in terms of how confident are we on the $2 billion to $3 billion, I'd say, you know, first and foremost, we set a target, we will deliver it. That's exactly what we're working towards.

的確？謝謝你。關於營運支出，我想雖然您之前已經回答了很多相關問題。補充一下，當然還有很多內容已經成為頭條新聞，等等尚未播放。因此，就我們對 20 億至 30 億美元的信心有多大而言，我想說，首先也是最重要的是，我們設定了目標，我們將實現它。這正是我們正在努力的方向。

We're very much moving towards efficiencies rather than portfolio as being the largest share in terms of those numbers. And we are working to achieve that and very clearly on track to do so, I'll bring you back to Q2 when we talked about it in some detail and give an update. We were [$1.7 billion] at that point. And of course, we'll give you an update at the end of the year and of course, the next steps will come after completion of the first sprint, but we are definitely on track. Thank you.

就這些數字而言，我們正在大力提高效率，而不是投資組合作為最大份額。我們正在努力實現這一目標，並且非常明確地正在這樣做，當我們詳細討論並提供更新時，我將帶您回到第二季。那時我們的資產為 [17 億美元]。當然，我們會在今年年底向您提供最新情況，當然，下一步將在第一個衝刺完成後進行，但我們絕對走在正軌上。謝謝。

Thanks Sinead. Michael, thank you for the question. Luke, let's go to the next question please.

謝謝西妮德。邁克爾，謝謝你的提問。盧克，我們進入下一個問題。

Irene Himona, Bernstein.

艾琳希莫納，伯恩斯坦。

Thank you and congratulations on another quarter of strong delivery. My first question, you've distributed 43% of CFFO in the past year. Your official range is [30 to 40] you have the strongest balance sheet, as you mentioned since the BG deal plus the stock remains undervalued. So, should we think of this as perhaps permanently moving to above your official range for the payout? And then secondly, if you can perhaps share your views on the 2025 outlook for European Gas and for your global LNG earnings. Thank you.

謝謝並祝賀又一個季度的強勁交付。我的第一個問題，去年你們分配了 43% 的 CFFO。你的官方範圍是 [30 到 40]，你擁有最強勁的資產負債表，正如你所提到的，自從 BG 交易以來，加上股票仍然被低估。那麼，我們是否應該認為這可能會永久高於您的官方支付範圍？其次，您是否可以分享您對 2025 年歐洲天然氣和全球液化天然氣收入前景的看法。謝謝。

I'll start with the second one and then give Sinead the opportunity to reference the first one, Irena. Thank you for the question.

我將從第二個開始，然後讓 Sinead 有機會參考第一個，Irena。謝謝你的提問。

I don't have a crystal ball. I mean, what we do see is continued uncertainty and volatility in the gas markets. It's fair to say that the prompt markets are looking tighter than maybe some envisaged in particular because of the slippage of some of the LNG major developments that were due to come up in the US. We have seen some good buying this year at different points in the cycle, in particular, China and India. European, in particular, industrial demand continues to be soft, but we are also seeing new buyers of LNG, Brazil. For example, demand has grown because of challenges with the hydro complex there. Egypt is importing.

我沒有水晶球。我的意思是，我們確實看到天然氣市場持續存在不確定性和波動性。可以公平地說，即期市場看起來比一些人想像的更為緊張，特別是因為美國即將出現的一些液化天然氣主要開發項目的下滑。今年我們在周期的不同階段看到了一些不錯的買盤，特別是在中國和印度。特別是歐洲，工業需求持續疲軟，但我們也看到了液化天然氣的新買家巴西。例如，由於那裡的水利綜合體面臨挑戰，需求增加。埃及正在進口。

So 2025 difficult to call in particular, given the volatility and the geopolitical context. But I think it's fair to say that the market at least for now continues to show balance at least through the next year on a physical basis. Having said that I'll just reiterate a couple of points that Sinead has made. What we also see is that the nature of the seasonality that we had been used to in the past, we don't see as much going forward. It's also fair to say that the volatility that we have seen since 2022 isn't there. We are more in sort of the pre 2022 price normalized space. And so it's a different context and we need to be able to adapt to back to pre 2022 realities as a company.

因此，考慮到波動性和地緣政治背景，2025 年的預測尤其困難。但我認為可以公平地說，至少目前市場在實際基礎上至少在明年繼續表現出平衡。話雖如此，我只是重申西尼德提出的幾點。我們也看到，我們過去已經習慣的季節性本質，未來不會有太大變化。可以公平地說，自 2022 年以來我們所看到的波動並不存在。我們更傾向於 2022 年之前的價格標準化空間。因此，這是一個不同的背景，作為一家公司，我們需要能夠適應 2022 年之前的現實。

And thanks Irene. Indeed, I'll keep it to a more the way we're thinking about it. This is about (inaudible) that's really the way we're trying to process this. It's about being able to do CapEx both organic and inorganic and distribute above the range, exactly as you said, and strengthen the balance sheet, which is a wonderful place to be.

謝謝艾琳。事實上，我會​​保持我們現在思考的方式。這就是（聽不清楚）我們正在嘗試處理這個問題的真正方法。這是關於能夠進行有機和無機資本支出，並在範圍之上分配，正如你所說，並加強資產負債表，這是一個美妙的地方。

So indeed, we have continued to distribute above the range at the moment. So it's 30% to 40% which was through the cycle, as you say, we are 12 quarters of distributions above $3 billion. And of course, you can look at what we've done in the past. So you asked me about what we're going to do in the future, I'll not go to the future. I'll ask you to look at our actions.

因此，事實上，我們目前繼續在該範圍之上進行分配。因此，整個週期中有 30% 到 40%，正如您所說，我們有 12 個季度的分配超過 30 億美元。當然，您可以看看我們過去所做的事情。所以你問我未來我們要做什麼，我不會去未來。我請你看看我們的行為。

What have we done? We've done 12 quarters now above $3 billion and beyond that, what we've also done is in times where we've had lower cash flow, you can go back to Q4 last year. If you should go back there, we had CFFO which was slightly weaker and of course, our net debt went up and still we did $3.5 billion of buybacks at the time. It is clear we are preferentially allocating to share buybacks. So have a look at what we've done in the past and use that as well. Thank you.

我們做了什麼？我們已經完成了 12 個季度超過 30 億美元的業務，除此之外，我們還在現金流較低的時候做了這些，你可以回到去年第四季。如果你回到那裡，我們的 CFFO 稍微疲軟，當然，我們的淨債務增加了，但我們當時仍然進行了 35 億美元的回購。很明顯，我們優先分配股票回購。因此，看看我們過去所做的事情並加以利用。謝謝。

Great. Thank you, Sinead. Irena, thank you very much, Luke. Let's go to the next question, please.

偉大的。謝謝你，西妮德。艾琳娜，非常感謝你，盧克。請讓我們進入下一個問題。

Giacomo Romeo, Jefferies.

賈科莫·羅密歐，傑弗里斯。

Yes. Thank you. Two questions for me and the first one is on the LNG market. You mentioned the contract you signed with the Botas in Turkey. There have been some headlines suggesting that term pricing is coming down particularly related to this agreement. Are you seeing a more challenging market in the (inaudible) market?

是的。謝謝。我有兩個問題，第一個問題是關於液化天然氣市場的。你提到了你與土耳其博塔斯隊簽訂的合約。有一些頭條新聞表明，期限定價正在下降，尤其與該協議有關。您是否在（聽不清楚）市場中看到了更具挑戰性的市場？

Second question I wanted to ask is the can you remind us where we stand in terms of the key hurdles to taking FID on the second phase of LNG Canada? And are you happy with the acreage? You have in around those assets. Are you -- would you be looking to add more acreage in the area?

我想問的第二個問題是，您能否提醒我們，在加拿大液化天然氣第二階段進行最終投資決定的關鍵障礙方面，我們所處的位置是什麼？您對面積滿意嗎？你擁有這些資產。您是否希望在該地區增加更多面積？

Thank you for that. I'll touch on both. I think on the LNG markets, you'll appreciate, I won't be able to sort of disclose specific term prices. What I would say is there is nothing that we are seeing at the moment that is different than previous cycles where you see sometimes the pendulum swings towards buyers, sometimes towards sellers and where we have always positioned ourselves is on both sides where we are a significant offtaker of volumes, we are a buyer. And of course, we are a significant seller being one of the largest players in the market.

謝謝你。我會談到兩者。我認為在液化天然氣市場上，你會明白，我無法透露具體的期限價格。我想說的是，我們目前看到的情況與之前的周期沒有什麼不同，在過去的周期中，你會看到鐘擺有時向買家擺動，有時向賣家擺動，而我們始終將自己定位在雙方，我們都是重要的。當然，我們是重要的賣家，也是市場上最大的參與者之一。

And so what we try to do as a company is not to worry about what we can't control, which is where the market fundamentals are. We can't control that. What we have control over and that's where we want to focus, is on our ability to be able to have options to create value through what will inevitably be cycles. And that's what we are positioning for. And that's what we are trying to secure, opening up an option like Turkey is very special for us because it is one of the largest, of course importers in Europe and gives us another delivery point for our growing portfolio of LNG projects.

因此，作為一家公司，我們要做的就是不要擔心我們無法控制的事情，這就是市場基本面所在。我們無法控制這一點。我們能夠控制的，也是我們想要專注的，是我們能夠透過不可避免的循環來選擇創造價值的能力。這就是我們的定位。這就是我們正在努力確保的，開放像土耳其這樣的選擇對我們來說非常特別，因為它當然是歐洲最大的進口國之一，並為我們不斷增長的液化天然氣項目組合提供了另一個交付點。

On LNG Canada Phase 2, I think before I get into Phase 2, we need to be able to sort of continue to see the momentum on Phase 1 and that we are seeing we are over 95% complete there. We have gas from the coastal gas link pipeline coming through to help with the commissioning of the systems. And we hope by middle of next year to be able to see first cargoes and the start of what will be an exciting project for us for the future.

關於加拿大液化天然氣計畫第二階段，我認為在進入第二階段之前，我們需要能夠繼續看到第一階段的勢頭，並且我們看到我們已經完成了 95% 以上。我們有來自沿海天然氣連接管道的天然氣來幫助系統的調試。我們希望到明年年中能夠看到第一批貨物，並開始啟動一個對我們來說令人興奮的未來項目。

LNG Canada Phase 2, the joint venture which is an independent joint venture will have to present their proposal to their shareholders. Of course, that has to be an investable opportunity. They are developing that. And in due course, they will be able to put it forward for us to be able to reflect along with the other shareholders doing the same.

液化天然氣加拿大第二階段是獨立的合資企業，必須向股東提交提案。當然，這必須是一個可投資的機會。他們正在開發這個。在適當的時候，他們將能夠向我們提出這項建議，以便我們能夠與其他股東一起反思。

In terms of acreage, we are very pleased with the position we have, which really gives us the option, not the obligation, the option to be able to either produce out of our existing acreage or to pull from third party suppliers in [ACO]. That is the beauty of the position we have there. And that's one where we will continue to be able to look forward as we bring LNG Canada up to be able to optimize and to create value out of.

就面積而言，我們對我們所擁有的地位非常滿意，這確實為我們提供了選擇，而不是義務，選擇能夠在我們現有的面積中生產或從第三方供應商那裡獲取[阿科]。這就是我們所處位置的美妙之處。我們將繼續展望這一點，讓加拿大液化天然氣公司能夠優化並創造價值。

Thank you very much, Giacomo. Luke, let's go to the next question please.

非常感謝你，賈科莫。盧克，我們進入下一個問題。

Lucas Herrmann, BNP.

盧卡斯·赫爾曼，法國巴黎銀行。

Thank you very much and as with the others, it's very encouraging to see the performance. Couple if I might, I just wanted -- we're into the fourth quarter, it's that time of year when we all start to speculate around dividend, I guess, very frustratingly share price is the same level as it was a year ago. A year ago, you were very clear that the preference is very much the buyback that you held with the 4% growth in dividend. Would it be sensible to assume? And I know it's a board decision, but I guess it would be sensible to assume that that would be a practical approach this time as well. So, you know, question one is really around dividend and thinking and whether there's any change.

非常感謝你們，和其他人一樣，看到演出非常令人鼓舞。如果可以的話，我只是想——我們進入了第四季度，每年的這個時候我們都開始圍繞股息進行投機，我想，非常令人沮喪的是，股價與一年前的水平相同。一年前，你非常清楚，你的偏好很大程度上是你持有的股息成長 4% 的回購。這樣的假設是否合理？我知道這是董事會的決定，但我想假設這次也將是實用的方法是明智的。所以，你知道，第一個問題實際上是圍繞股息和思考以及是否有任何變化。

And second, sorry, it's a little bitty. It's again in part around LNG. Can you just remind me where are we with venture and the volumes actually starting to flow to your business? This is kind of leaving aside the litigation if one can, but is there a point at which actually the [2 million] that you were due should officially stop? I know you, but I can't say that because well, for obvious reasons. But was there effectively a day a hard deadline? Sorry just staying with volumes Pavilion, the expectation is still that the trade will complete by the end of the year? Thank you.

其次，抱歉，這有點小。這又部分圍繞液化天然氣展開。您能否提醒我，我們的創投進展到什麼程度以及實際開始流入您的業務的數量？如果可以的話，這有點像是把訴訟放在一邊，但是是否有一個點，你本來應該支付的[200萬]實際上應該正式停止？我認識你，但我不能這麼說，因為出於顯而易見的原因。但實際上有那麼一天是嚴格的最後期限嗎？抱歉，我們只停留在 Volume Pavilion 上，預計交易將在今年年底前完成嗎？謝謝。

Super. Thanks. Lucas. Do you want to start with the first one? I could take the second one.

極好的。謝謝。盧卡斯.您想從第一個開始嗎？我可以選擇第二個。

On dividends, I think it's interesting reflection of your right board decision, et cetera. Lucas, you knew exactly where I was going to go to on that one. Look, the position we're in is very clear. We have an amazing balance sheet which has been consciously put in place to allow us to weather what comes at us, whether it's performance or whether it's macro, which gives us a differentiating factor without a doubt.

關於股息，我認為這很有趣地反映了董事會的正確決策等。盧卡斯，你清楚知道我要講的內容。看，我們所處的位置非常明確。我們有一個令人驚嘆的資產負債表，它是有意識地建立起來的，使我們能夠經受住我們遇到的一切，無論是業績還是宏觀，這無疑給了我們一個差異化因素。

So then it comes down to how do we distribute around that? And as you say, we look to value, it's invest for value. It doesn't matter whether we're doing it towards new capital investments or whether it's in terms of buybacks or how do we distribute to the shareholders. It's just about the and around that and how we stick to value.

那麼歸根結底就是我們如何圍繞這個問題進行分配？正如你所說，我們注重價值，這是為了價值而投資。無論我們是為了新的資本投資，還是為了回購，或者我們如何向股東分配，這並不重要。這只是關於它及其周圍以及我們如何堅持價值。

So where are we? We've got share price which is not reacted yet. So in terms of the share price is still undervalued as far as we are concerned and therefore great confidence in terms of the share buybacks. And you can look to what we've done before. We'll see what we do next year. That's always what we do and we'll come back to you towards the end of the year or in our next Capital Markets Day. Thanks Lucas.

那我們在哪裡？我們有尚未做出反應的股價。因此，就我們而言，股價仍然被低估，因此對股票回購充滿信心。你可以看看我們之前做過的事。我們會看看明年我們會做什麼。這一直是我們所做的，我們將在年底或下一個資本市場日回覆您。謝謝盧卡斯。

Thanks Sinead. Lucas to your other two points. It's a very quickly Pavilion going through the regulatory approval expected early next year. We have only really sort of, it takes some time to ramp up into our portfolio. So we really only think about true incremental value creation in the second half of next year is the way we think about it.

謝謝西妮德。盧卡斯談談你的另外兩點。預計明年初，該展館很快就會獲得監管部門的批准。我們只是真正需要一些時間來增加我們的投資組合。因此，我們實際上只考慮明年下半年真正的增量價值創造，這是我們思考的方式。

On Venture Global, I have talked about it enough times. I wish I had something new to say on it other than it frustratingly, we have got no volumes against our term agreement. A term agreement of course, which underpinned the financing for that project. We are going to go through the arbitration hearings this quarter from what I recall and then see where we go from there but clearly a frustrating situation to be in. Lucas, thank you.

在 Venture Global 上，我已經談過很多次了。我希望我能對此有新的說法，但令人沮喪的是，我們沒有收到任何反對我們的期限協議的內容。當然是一份期限協議，它支撐了該專案的融資。根據我的記憶，我們將在本季進行仲裁聽證會，然後看看我們將如何發展，但顯然這是一個令人沮喪的情況。盧卡斯，謝謝你。

Matthew Lofting, JPMorgan.

馬修‧洛夫廷，摩根大通。

Hi, thanks for taking the questions and congratulations on a robust update, absolute and relative.

您好，感謝您提出問題，並祝賀您獲得了絕對和相對的強勁更新。

It strikes me looking at the numbers that again this quarter, if we combine the upstream and integrated gas businesses, the aggregated numbers of a beaten consensus expectations. That's been several quarters in a row, that's been the case now. So could you just talk a bit about sprint related underlying benefits and deal as within those businesses and where, where you think you're creating the value that they should sustain 2025 plus?

讓我震驚的是，如果我們將上游和綜合天然氣業務結合起來，本季的數據再次超出了共識預期。連續幾季都是這樣，現在也是這樣。那麼，您能否談談這些業務中與 sprint 相關的潛在利益和交易，以及您認為您在哪裡創造了他們應該在 2025 年以後維持的價值？

And then secondly, I think in Sinead's opening remarks, you mentioned the early stages that shell is still in on the journey that, that it's on. Clearly, we could interpret that in a multiyear and possibly even multi decade context in, in terms of the transition. But if we bring it back to the next 6, 12, 18 months, what are the sort of the big ticket milestones that you're looking at in an operational and fiscal sense? Thank you.

其次，我認為在 Sinead 的開場白中，您提到了 shell 仍處於其發展歷程的早期階段。顯然，我們可以在多年甚至可能幾十年的背景下，從轉型的角度來解釋這一點。但如果我們把時間拉回未來 6、12、18 個月，您在營運和財務方面所關注的重大里程碑是什麼？謝謝。

You want to take this?

你想拿這個嗎？

Happy to. Please feel free to add. So indeed, just looking at the context you're setting here, Matt. So indeed, we have beaten consensus in terms of upstream and integrated gas. I would say there's a number of things there. First and foremost, it's about in terms of versus consensus. We saw more feed gas come in from Nigeria in our integrated gas business and I alluded to it earlier as well that some cargoes also moved from Q4 into Q3. So that gave us a little bit of a lift in terms of IG.

很高興。請隨意補充。事實上，只要看看你在這裡設置的背景，馬特。事實上，我們在上游和綜合天然氣方面已經打破了共識。我想說那裡有很多東西。首先也是最重要的，這是關於共識與共識的問題。在我們的綜合天然氣業務中，我們看到更多的原料氣來自奈及利亞，我之前也提到過，有些貨物也從第四季轉移到了第三季。所以這給我們的 IG 帶來了一點提升。

And in terms of Upstream versus consensus, what we saw was, of course, production was up. Why was that up? That was up because of two things. One was getting up and running after hurricane season. So it's still going on, but it was less than we were expecting and we were able to get the assets up and running, amazing work from the team along the way.

就上游與共識而言，我們看到的當然是產量增加了。為什麼會這樣呢？這是因為兩件事。其中一個在颶風季節過後開始運作。所以它仍在繼續，但比我們預期的要少，我們能夠啟動並運行資產，整個團隊的工作非常出色。

And also interestingly on maintenance, and I think that's just a fascinating on maintenance. What we're seeing is the business, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico, being able to, in terms of maintenance, to be able to reduce the time. And this isn't cutting work, this is about efficiency and focus and that leads to your second question.

維護方面也很有趣，我認為維護方面非常有趣。我們看到的是，尤其是墨西哥灣的業務，在維護方面能夠減少時間。這不是削減工作，而是關於效率和重點，這引出了你的第二個問題。

So when we can get assets up and running 10 days shorter than they would have been in a previous maintenance round, that's an amazing amount of barrels that you get out there and be able to hit your bottom line. So, what we're seeing is that sort of cultural change coming through where that accountability where each and every person knows exactly what they do for the bottom line is flowing through to the bottom line results.

因此，當我們能夠比之前的維護週期縮短 10 天的時間來啟動和運行資產時，您將獲得驚人數量的桶，並能夠達到您的底線。因此，我們看到的是這種文化變革正在發生，每個人都清楚知道自己為底線所做的事情的責任正在流向底線結果。

So in terms of early stages, what does that mean? What am I saying there? We've started this journey, we are continuing to push it down at all levels of the organization and it's coming bottoms up as well. We're seeing people get excited about this. We're seeing them understand what they can do and bring ideas to the fore. So do I see it continuing? Absolutely. I see it continuing to ramp up as we go through, and we'll continue to update you. But first and foremost, let us deliver on sprint one and we'll give you an update on that towards the end of the year. Thank you.

那麼就早期階段而言，這意味著什麼？我在那裡說什麼？我們已經開始了這一旅程，我們將繼續在組織的各個層面上推動它，並且它也會自下而上。我們看到人們對此感到興奮。我們看到他們了解自己能做什麼並提出想法。那麼我認為這種情況還會繼續嗎？絕對地。我認為隨著我們的進展，它將繼續增加，我們將繼續向您通報最新情況。但首先也是最重要的是，讓我們交付一個衝刺，我們將在年底向您提供最新情況。謝謝。

Great. Thank you very much, Sinead. Thank you, Matt. Can we go to the next question please. Luke.

偉大的。非常感謝你，西妮德。謝謝你，馬特。我們可以進入下一個問題嗎？路克.

Our next caller is Doug Leggate from Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個來電者是 Wolfe Research 的 Doug Leggate。

Thank you. Good afternoon, everybody. Thanks for having me on. While I wonder if I know you're going to do the Capital Markets Day next year and give us an update post for sprint. But I wonder if I could just press a little bit on the capital flexibility below $22 billion this year are clearly very impressive. But it seems that as a result of selective decisions, largely pivoting away from renewables and energy solutions.

謝謝。大家下午好。謝謝你邀請我參加。雖然我想知道您是否知道明年您將參加資本市場日並向我們提供衝刺的最新消息。但我想知道我是否可以稍微強調一下今年低於 220 億美元的資本靈活性顯然非常令人印象深刻。但似乎是選擇性決策的結果，很大程度上偏離了再生能源和能源解決方案。

Why should we not expect that to continue or maybe to ask the question slightly differently? Is it possible that $22 billion to $25 billion stays in place? But the relative allocation of capital pivots back to some of the other businesses where you obviously have plenty of opportunities.

為什麼我們不應該期望這種情況繼續下去，或者也許以稍微不同的方式提出問題？220億到250億美元有可能維持不變嗎？但資本的相對配置又回到了其他一些顯然擁有大量機會的業務。

Doug thank you very much for that. Of course without sort of getting into CMD 25 I think already with what we said in CMD 23 we can hopefully use that as a foundation for your question.

道格對此非常感謝。當然，在不進入 CMD 25 的情況下，我認為我們在 CMD 23 中所說的話已經可以作為您問題的基礎。

We've been spending around the $20 billion mark organically. So we are not fundamentally changing the rhythm. What we are doing is we are trying to get more out of the capital that we are deploying to some of the examples that Sinead gave earlier. This concept of just getting the brilliant basics leveraging the capabilities in the organization to focus on more capital efficiency, being choiceful around what projects we go after and then just allowing the ones that don't work to stop.

我們的有機支出一直在 200 億美元左右。所以我們並沒有從根本上改變節奏。我們正在做的是，我們正在努力從我們部署到西尼德之前給出的一些例子的資本中獲得更多收益。這個概念是利用組織中的能力來獲得出色的基礎知識，專注於提高資本效率，選擇我們要從事的項目，然後讓那些不起作用的項目停止。

If I then reflect your characterization, I would characterize things differently. We have said as a company, we are committed to the energy transition. We have also said we will play to our competitive strength. So what you are actually seeing is indeed pulling back in certain areas like renewable generation, which we have now publicly said. And in CMD 23 we are very clear on, we do not see ourselves as being advantaged in renewable generation to create material returns over others.

如果我反映你的特徵，我會對事物進行不同的描述。我們說過，作為一家公司，我們致力於能源轉型。我們也說過我們會發揮我們的競爭優勢。因此，您實際上看到的確實是某些領域的倒退，例如我們現在公開表示的再生能源發電。在 CMD 23 中，我們非常清楚，我們不認為自己在再生能源發電方面比其他人具有創造物質回報的優勢。

And so you do see us stepping back from those areas where we have identified and we have learned if I'm honest with you that we do not have those advantages. We are however, investing in other areas, this idea that capital should be a proxy to our commitment to the energy transition, I think is flawed. We have invested $2 billion in Nature Energy. I do not plan to invest many more billions of dollars into biogas because we have acquired the platform.

所以你確實看到我們從我們已經確定的那些領域後退了，如果我誠實地告訴你，我們已經了解到我們不具備這些優勢。然而，我們正在投資其他領域，這種認為資本應該成為我們對能源轉型承諾的代理的想法，我認為是有缺陷的。我們已向 Nature Energy 投資了 20 億美元。我不打算在沼氣領域投資更多數十億美元，因為我們已經收購了這個平台。

Now, we need to make sure that we deliver value out of that platform before we earn the right to invest in anything more. And in these nascent businesses platforms like that, the investment we are making in ha which is one of the biggest players in the world in biofuels, the investments we are making EV, yes albeit in the focus markets where we see pathways towards profitability.

現在，我們需要確保在獲得投資更多東西的權利之前，先從該平台中創造價值。在這些新興的商業平台中，我們對哈的投資，哈是世界上生物燃料領域最大的參與者之一，我們對電動車的投資，是的，儘管是在我們看到盈利途徑的重點市場。

So this is about really making sure that our energy transition, which indeed is going to be multi decade is one that is planted on very solid foundations. And our job is to make sure that we can demonstrate those returns consistently and move at the pace and hopefully slightly ahead of what the transition happens. But it will require the right government policies. It will require customers leaning into this. And of course, it will require us to continue to drive down the cost of that delivered lower cost of energy or lower carbon energy.

因此，這實際上是為了確保我們的能源轉型（實際上將持續數十年）建立在非常堅實的基礎上。我們的工作是確保我們能夠始終如一地展示這些回報，並按照節奏前進，並希望稍微領先於轉型發生的情況。但這需要正確的政府政策。這需要客戶對此有所了解。當然，這將要求我們繼續降低能源成本或低碳能源的成本。

I hope that gives you a sense. The flexibility, of course, we will retain that as we really tighten on the organization and make sure that we are putting a high bar on value realization and being able to demonstrate proof points that link into the next level of investment. All by the way, in the context of having to compare that to the option of a buyback, which as you have heard us say time and time again is a very attractive option, so we need to be able to make sure that we are looking at both and not become myopic and looking at just one.

我希望這能給你一種感覺。當然，當我們真正收緊組織並確保我們對價值實現設定高標準並能夠展示與下一階段投資相關的證據點時，我們將保留這種靈活性。順便說一句，在必須將其與回購選項進行比較的情況下，正如您一次又一次聽到我們所說，回購是一個非常有吸引力的選擇，因此我們需要能夠確保我們正在尋找兩者兼而有之，而不是變得短視，只看其中之一。

Thank you very much, Doug. Luke, let's go to the next question, please.

非常感謝你，道格。盧克，我們進入下一個問題。

Kim Fustier, HSBC

金‧福斯蒂爾，匯豐銀行

Hi, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. I wanted to ask about Nigeria since the sale of the (inaudible) assets has been rejected by the authorities. How much due diligence do you feel you've done on the buyer? And what do you think the next steps are in the process?

嗨，下午好。感謝您回答我的問題。我想詢問尼日利亞的情況，因為（聽不清楚）資產的出售已被當局拒絕。您認為您對買方做了多少盡職調查？您認為接下來的步驟是什麼？

My second question is on power. You bought CCGD plant in the US this quarter. How much gas fire capacity do you believe you ultimately need to underpin sales of nonintermittent clean power to your customers? Thank you.

我的第二個問題是關於權力。本季您購買了美國的 CCGD 工廠。您認為最終需要多少燃氣火力才能支撐向客戶銷售不間斷的清潔電力？謝謝。

Okay, thank you for those two questions. I'll take the first one and then hand over to you Sinead.

好的，謝謝你的兩個問題。我拿走第一個，然後交給你，Sinead。

On Nigeria, as you are aware, we have done a lot of work on this transaction working with the authorities to -- in essence, be able to create a venture that outlives the current owner. As Renaissance, the acquiring consortium will take the capabilities that we have developed and honed over decades to be able to do that.

如你所知，在尼日利亞，我們與當局合作，在這筆交易上做了很多工作，從本質上講，能夠創造一家比當前所有者壽命更長的企業。作為文藝復興，收購財團將利用我們幾十年來開發和磨練的能力來做到這一點。

We have done extensive, extensive due diligence and we have worked very clearly to be able to establish a transaction structure that allows us to leave with the confidence that what we expect to happen happens. Now, the application of course is with the regulator, it's not time band, the regulator can take time. We are continuing to address the regulator's questions. I won't comment further than that other than to say that we continue to have confidence in our ability to be able to complete this transaction as we demonstrate to the regulator that we have complied with all their expectations.

我們已經進行了廣泛的盡職調查，我們的工作非常明確，以便能夠建立一個交易結構，使我們能夠滿懷信心地離開，我們期望發生的事情會發生。現在，應用當然是透過調節器來實現的，這不是時間帶，調節器可以需要時間。我們正在繼續解決監管機構的問題。除此之外，我不會做更多評論，只是說我們仍然對完成這筆交易的能力充滿信心，因為我們向監管機構證明我們已經滿足了他們的所有期望。

Thank you, Kim. And indeed, you refer back to the Rhode Island CCGD which we purchased this quarter. And by the way, that is a plant that we already had offtake from since it's very naturally linked to it. Look when we think about this and while has already talked about the fact that we don't see renewable generation as being a differentiating capability. What we do see though on our side of course, is the differentiation we have through our trading capabilities. So when we're looking at deploying capital, that high bar that we've talked about before, it really is there.

謝謝你，金。事實上，您可以回顧我們本季購買的羅德島 CCGD。順便說一句，我們已經從那家工廠獲得了產量，因為它與它有著非常自然的聯繫。當我們思考這個問題時，我們已經談到了這樣一個事實：我們不認為再生能源發電是一種差異化能力。當然，我們確實看到的是我們透過交易能力所獲得的差異化。因此，當我們考慮部署資本時，我們之前討論過的高標準確實存在。

So what we're looking at is in terms of the capacity or volume that we need, now that will depend on which market we want to be in. So it's very much dependent on where it will be. You do see it in the US, of course, and you'll see it in a few other you've seen in Australia and there's many more, but this is more about the offtake that we can get.

因此，我們正在考慮的是我們需要的容量或數量，現在這將取決於我們想要進入哪個市場。所以這很大程度取決於它的位置。當然，你確實在美國看到了它，你也會在澳洲的其他一些地方看到它，還有更多，但這更多的是我們可以獲得的承購。

In some cases, it's helpful for us to have the underlying asset and therefore be able to control the dispatch. But in many cases, it's pure and simple that third party supply that we purchase and of course, given our credit rating and our balance sheet, we're a very attractive customer or supplier to others as well. So this is about the link in the synergy between the underlying asset and fundamentally the trading capability, which is how we have a differentiation to others. Thanks, Kim.

在某些情況下，擁有基礎資產對我們很有幫助，因此能夠控制調度。但在許多情況下，我們購買的第三方供應品是純粹而簡單的，當然，考慮到我們的信用評級和資產負債表，我們對其他人來說也是非常有吸引力的客戶或供應商。所以這是關於基礎資產和交易能力之間協同作用的聯繫，這就是我們與其他人的差異化之處。謝謝，金。

Thank you, Sinead. Thank you, Kim.

謝謝你，西妮德。謝謝你，金。

Luke, let's go to the next question please.

盧克，我們進入下一個問題。

Christopher Kuplent, Bank of America.

克里斯多福‧庫普倫特，美國銀行。

Thank you very much. I'll keep it very short. Just checking. Singapore is still held for sale. Can you comment a little bit around the tailwind you expect now that you've put through impairments on all those lovely items like depreciation and underlying OpEx, et cetera and let's face it. What is an underperforming division given the macro environment that we're in, right?

非常感謝。我會保持很簡短。只是檢查。新加坡仍待出售。既然您已經對所有這些可愛的項目（如折舊和基本營運支出等）進行了減值，您能否對您期望的順風發表一些評論，讓我們面對現實吧。考慮到我們所處的宏觀環境，什麼是表現不佳的部門，對吧？

So just wanted whether you can comment a little bit around those tailwinds and perhaps talk us through some of the other assets that you've mentioned are always on, let's say the test block. Where you see more exciting tailwinds from underperformance, particularly thinking about your downstream positions. Thank you.

所以只是想知道您是否可以對這些有利因素發表一些評論，也許可以向我們介紹一下您提到的其他一些始終處於啟用狀態的資產，例如測試區塊。您會看到表現不佳帶來更多令人興奮的推動力，特別是考慮到您的下游職位。謝謝。

Thanks Christopher. Do you want to take that?

謝謝克里斯多福。你想接受嗎？

Yeah, happy to. So, a couple of things in there, Chris as well. So Singapore, as you say it is held for sale, we're in the middle of a turnaround at the moment. So teams very much focused on getting that over the line and of course, looking to be able to come back and say it's completed likely into the new year, but very much focused on that.

是的，很高興。所以，克里斯也有一些事情。因此，新加坡，正如你所說，它正在出售，我們目前正處於轉變之中。因此，團隊非常專注於完成這個任務，當然，希望能夠回來並說它很可能在新的一年裡完成，但非常專注於這一點。

Taking chemicals and products, which is really what you're referring to because we've talked about marketing and the very strong performance that we're seeing there, great. I will just simply say great earnings this quarter in terms of over $1 billion for our marketing business. But let's talk about chemicals and products a little bit.

就化學品和產品而言，這確實是您所指的，因為我們已經討論了行銷以及我們在那裡看到的非常強勁的表現，非常棒。我只想簡單地說，本季我們的行銷業務收入超過 10 億美元，收益非常可觀。但我們來談談化學品和產品。

So refining margins of course, were down, not surprising as you come out of maintenance season as you know, so that is challenging to 28% down versus the previous quarter in terms of that and a bit of lower demand. On the chemical side, of course, it is depressed market in terms of the margins. So what are we actually looking at there? In terms of that, what we're seeing is that actually margin that ICM is the lower bound of 150 which is what we said at CMD. So that's at the lower end of it. So we need to remember that. And of course, Singapore will leave and that will change that number as well.

因此，煉油利潤當然會下降，這並不奇怪，因為正如您所知，當您結束維護季節時，因此，就這一點和需求的下降而言，與上一季相比下降28% 是具有挑戰性的。當然，在化學品方面，市場的利潤率很低。那我們實際上在看什麼呢？就這一點而言，我們看到的是 ICM 的實際餘裕是 150 的下限，這就是我們在 CMD 上所說的。這是它的下端。所以我們需要記住這一點。當然，新加坡將會離開，這也會改變這個數字。

So in terms of the portfolio, so we've got the external. So the macro, in terms of the lower bound, we've got the portfolio in terms of Singapore, but also what we're doing in Europe where we're looking to do economic optimal on specific units. So we're doing the self help, we're making sure that we run things when it makes sense rather than anything else.

所以就投資組合而言，我們有外部的。因此，就宏觀而言，就下限而言，我們有新加坡的投資組合，但也有我們在歐洲所做的事情，我們希望在特定單位上實現經濟最優。所以我們正在做自助，我們確保我們在有意義的時候運行事情，而不是其他任何事情。

And then of course, there's Monaca. And in terms of Monaca, what are you seeing there? You saw Q1 basically being all about getting it up and running Q2 about making sure it was operational and we could actually say that. Q3 being about making sure it's predictable and that we're getting more products coming through and that's what will go on. This will be about reliability and getting those up and running. So you'll see that start to flow through the numbers as well.

當然，還有莫納卡。就莫納卡而言，您在那裡看到了什麼？你看到第一季基本上都是關於啟動和運行第二季是為了確保它可以運行，我們實際上可以這麼說。第三季的目標是確保它是可預測的，並且我們將推出更多產品，這就是將要發生的事情。這將涉及可靠性以及如何啟動和運行這些設備。所以你會看到這一點也開始體現在數字上。

So that the chemicals and product side. So you can see we're really focused in on improving the (inaudible) which is in our chemicals and products business. And of course, marketing exactly the same thing. We're making sure that we get delivery in sites. So you've seen some of the tail coming off and while referenced earlier, Pakistan, etcetera. So that's some 400 sites that have left the portfolio which were lower in our portfolio. We're also very focused on cost and making sure we drive the business to deliver exactly what they should be doing from a competitive perspective; out of the capital they've already employed.

使化學品及產品方。所以你可以看到我們真的專注於改善我們的化學品和產品業務（聽不清楚）。當然，行銷也是同樣的事情。我們正在確保我們能夠在站點上交付。所以你已經看到一些尾巴脫落了，雖然前面提到過，巴基斯坦等等。大約有 400 個網站離開了我們的投資組合，這些網站在我們的投資組合中排名較低。我們也非常關注成本，並確保我們推動業務從競爭的角度準確地交付他們應該做的事情；他們已經使用了資本。

And then on the third side, of course, renewables, we've talked about generation, I think we said it very well about our renewable generation capacity and moving away from that more towards where we have really strong capabilities linked to trading, which will mean less capital employed in that as well. So I hope that gives you a bit of a feel for it Chris.

然後在第三方面，當然是可再生能源，我們已經討論了發電，我認為我們對我們的可再生能源發電能力說得很好，並從這一點轉向我們擁有與貿易相關的真正強大能力的地方，這將這也意味著更少的資本投入。所以我希望這能給你一點感覺，克里斯。

Thanks Sinead and thank you for the question Christopher. As you know, we're literally just passing the midway point of our Sprint sale. So still some way to go to be able to get to where we need to get to.

謝謝西尼德，也謝謝克里斯多福提出的問題。如您所知，我們的 Sprint 銷售實際上剛剛過半。因此，要到達我們需要到達的地方，還有一段路要走。

Let's go to the next question, please. Luke.

請讓我們進入下一個問題。路克.

Martijn Rats, Morgan Stanley.

馬丁‧拉茨，摩根士丹利。

Hi. Hello. Well, I look most of the important questions have been asked, but there's one left that I'm somewhat intrigued about which hope you could help me with. I noticed that refinery throughput was down about 100,000 barrels a day or so quarter on quarter. And also the guidance for that line item for the fourth quarter doesn't imply much of a rebound to sort of suggested that refined utilization could sort of continue to tail off a little bit.

你好。你好。好吧，我看起來大部分重要的問題都已經被問到了，但還有一個問題我有點感興趣，希望你能幫助我。我注意到煉油廠的產量環比每天下降約 10 萬桶。此外，該專案的指導在第四季度並不意味著會有太大反彈，這表明精細化利用率可能會繼續略有下降。

And I think many of us are trying to figure out sort of where exactly we are in terms of refining margins versus the level that would trigger economic run cuts. So I was wondering in that 100,000 barrel a day reduction in refinery throughput, is there an element of economic run cuts in there or is it all just explained by maintenance and operational issues?

我認為我們中的許多人都在試圖弄清楚我們在煉油利潤方面與引發經濟運行削減的水平相比究竟處於什麼位置。所以我想知道煉油廠產量每天減少 10 萬桶，其中是否有經濟運作削減的因素，或者這一切都只是由維護和營運問題來解釋？

I'm happy to take that very quickly. So I think what you've seen Martin in the third quarter is a combination of things. The start of the quarter had softer than hoped for performance, particularly unplanned downtime. And then the latter part of it had quite a bit of maintenance. Actually, what you're seeing going into Q4 is some big turnarounds per (inaudible), for example, standing out as the biggest one, which would essentially flow through the entire quarter of Q4.

我很高興能很快接受。所以我認為你在第三節看到的馬丁是多種因素的結合。本季初的業績低於預期，尤其是計劃外停機。然後它的後半部有相當多的維護。實際上，您在第四季度看到的是每個（聽不清楚）的一些重大轉變，例如，作為最大的轉變，這基本上將貫穿第四季度的整個季度。

So you are not seeing material run cuts as part of that refining guidance. It's much more the choices of when we want to be able to run our maintenance and turnarounds. Anything you want to add to that one Sinead before I close off?

因此，您不會將材料運行削減視為精煉指南的一部分。更多的是我們希望能夠進行維護和周轉的時間的選擇。在我結束之前，你想對 Sinead 說點什麼嗎？

And I'm sure Martin if you need a sort of long list of where the other maintenance activities and turnaround activities are over the coming months in our refining footprint, including, for example, Bookham itself is going through one, Sarnia Rhineland in Germany, Norco in the US. So there is quite a bit of activity going as we speak.

我相信馬丁，如果您需要一份長長的清單，列出未來幾個月我們煉油足跡中的其他維護活動和周轉活動，包括，例如，布克漢姆本身正在經歷一個，德國的薩尼亞萊茵蘭，諾科在美國。因此，就在我們說話的時候，有相當多的活動正在進行中。

Thank you very much for the question, Martijn. And thank you Luke for helping me navigate the hour and thank you to all of you for your questions and for joining the call. As you've heard, we've delivered a strong quarter, we announced another $3.5 billion of share buybacks, which makes this 12 quarters in a row with announced buybacks of at least $3 billion as we are building a track record of delivery and aiming to be the investment case through the energy transition.

非常感謝你提出這個問題，馬丁。感謝盧克幫助我度過這一刻，感謝大家提出問題並加入電話會議。正如您所聽說的，我們已經交付了一個強勁的季度，我們宣布了另外35 億美元的股票回購，這使得我們連續12 個季度宣布了至少30 億美元的回購，因為我們正在建立交付記錄並瞄準成為能源轉型的投資案例。

Wishing you all a very pleasant end of the week. Thank you for joining us.

祝大家週末愉快。感謝您加入我們。