殼牌 (SHEL) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome, everyone. Today, Sinead and I will present Shell's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Results. 2024 was another strong year for Shell, despite some softness in our Q4 earnings impacted by some non-cash items. This year, we delivered the second highest cash flow from operations in our history. The culture that we are building with a focus on performance, discipline, and simplification has been key to achieving these results, enabling us to make great progress in delivering more value with less emissions.

歡迎大家。今天，Sinead 和我將介紹殼牌 2024 年第四季和全年業績。儘管受到一些非現金項目的影響，我們的第四季收益有所疲軟，但 2024 年對於殼牌來說又是強勁的一年。今年，我們實現了史上第二高的經營現金流。我們正在建構的注重績效、紀律和簡化的文化是實現這些成果的關鍵，使我們能夠在以更少的排放提供更多價值方面取得巨大進展。

Let me start with safety, which remains our top priority. Whilst I'm pleased with the improvements we've seen in personal safety this year, we must continue to do more on process safety and focus on delivering the fundamentals. We will focus on returning to the downward from the previous years including leveraging new technologies such as sensors, robotics and AI. These technologies have already started to have an impact, but there is so much more running room to go, and I'm encouraged by the progress that we are starting to see.

首先我要說一下安全，這仍然是我們的首要任務。雖然我對今年個人安全方面的進步感到滿意，但我們必須在製程安全方面繼續做出更多努力，並專注於實現基本安全。我們將專注於恢復前幾年的下滑趨勢，包括利用感測器、機器人和人工智慧等新技術。這些技術已經開始產生影響，但還有很大的發展空間，我們對我們開始看到的進展感到鼓舞。

Now on to Capital Markets Day 2023 and the progress that we are making against our targets. CMD '23 was an important milestone for us. And due to the efforts of so many across the organization, we are ahead of schedule across the majority of our key targets and ambitions. Starting with structural costs. We achieved a reduction of $3.1 billion by the end of 2024, one year ahead of our 2025 target date and above the range of $2 billion to $3 billion that we set in 2023. The first year of these reductions was more heavily weighted towards portfolio actions, but we have now entered the phase that increasingly leans towards reducing costs through performance initiatives and simplification.

現在進入 2023 年資本市場日，我們正在實現目標方面取得進展。CMD '23 對我們來說是一個重要的里程碑。而且由於整個組織許多人的努力，我們大多數關鍵目標和抱負都提前實現了。從結構成本開始。到 2024 年底，我們實現了 31 億美元的減幅，比 2025 年的目標日期提前了一年，也高於我們在 2023 年設定的 20 億至 30 億美元的範圍。削減成本的第一年主要側重於投資組合行動，但現在我們已進入一個越來越傾向於透過績效舉措和簡化來降低成本的等級。

On CapEx, I'm really proud of the discipline that we have shown, whether that be through the pausing of projects such as our biofuels project in Rotterdam or passing on opportunities that did not meet our high bar for investment. At CMD '23, we lowered our CapEx range from previous years. And in 2024, because of our focus on value creation, our CapEx number ended below the lower end of our guidance. All of this, together with our improved operational performance enabled us to outperform our targets for absolute free cash flow growth and free cash flow per share growth.

在資本支出方面，我對我們表現出的紀律感到非常自豪，無論是透過暫停鹿特丹生物燃料項目等項目，還是放棄不符合我們高投資標準的機會。在 CMD '23 中，我們降低了前幾年的資本支出範圍。到 2024 年，由於我們專注於創造價值，我們的資本支出數字低於預期的低端。所有這些，加上我們改善的營運業績，使我們超越了絕對自由現金流成長和每股自由現金流成長的目標。

And we have distributed this additional cash to our shareholders. At CMD '23, we increased our distribution range from 20% to 30% of CFFO to 30% to 40%, and we have delivered at the top end of that range. In 2024, we returned more than $22.5 billion to our shareholders, primarily through buybacks, just as we said we would. All of this while further strengthening our balance sheet. Moving forward, we will continue to preferentially allocate incremental capital to buybacks given the attractiveness of our shares, which are underpinned by the significant progress that we are making as an organization.

我們已將這些額外現金分配給股東。在 CMD '23 中，我們將分配範圍從 CFFO 的 20% 到 30% 提高到 30% 到 40%，並且我們已達到該範圍的最高水準。2024 年，我們按照承諾，主要透過回購向股東返還了超過 225 億美元。這一切也進一步加強了我們的資產負債表。展望未來，鑑於我們股票的吸引力，我們將繼續優先分配增量資本用於回購，而這得益於我們作為一個組織所取得的重大進步。

Now let's look at how we are delivering less emissions alongside more value. In 2024, we abated more than 1 million tonnes of CO2 from our operations. This allowed us to keep our total Scope 1 and 2 emissions, roughly flat compared with last year despite increased asset utilization. To date, we have achieved 60% of the reductions required to meet our 2030 target. Methane emissions remained well below our 0.2% target for 2025 and routine flaring remained flat year-on-year. And we achieved a reduction in the net carbon intensity of the products that we sell, moving us closer to our target of a 15% to 20% reduction by 2030 compared with 2016 levels. Progress against our carbon targets will not always be linear, but our plans are clear, and we have shown that when we commit to something, we deliver it.

現在讓我們看看如何實現更少排放的同時創造更多價值。2024 年，我們在營運過程中減少了 100 多萬噸二氧化碳。這樣，儘管資產利用率有所提高，但範圍 1 和 2 的總排放量與去年相比基本持平。到目前為止，我們已經達成了2030年目標所需減量的60%。甲烷排放量仍遠低於我們 2025 年 0.2% 的目標，常規燃燒量較去年同期持平。我們銷售的產品的淨碳強度降低，使我們更接近 2030 年比 2016 年減少 15% 至 20% 的目標。我們在實現碳排放目標方面的進展並不總是直線性的，但我們的計劃是明確的，而且我們已經證明，只要我們承諾做某事，我們就會實現它。

Let's now move to the progress that we've made on strengthening our portfolio. In our Deepwater business, we saw Wale and Mero-3 come online, adding significant production volumes. At CMD '23, we said we would deliver new projects with more than 500,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day of peak production by the end of 2025. Today, we've delivered over 80% of that with 2025 just beginning. In addition, we took a final investment decision on Bonga North in Nigeria this quarter, a project that's expected to deliver peak production of 110,000 barrels of oil per day another example demonstrating the strength and attractiveness of our project funnel.

現在讓我們來談談我們在加強投資組合方面所取得的進展。在我們的深水業務中，我們看到 Wale 和 Mero-3 投入使用，大大增加了產量。在 CMD '23 上，我們表示到 2025 年底，我們將交付日產量高峰超過 50 萬桶油當量的新項目。今天，我們已經實現了 80% 以上的目標，2025 年才剛開始。此外，本季我們做出了對尼日利亞Bonga North油田的最終投資決定，該專案預計日產量高峰將達到110,000桶石油，這也是我們專案通路實力和吸引力的另一個例證。

Earlier in 2024, we also further strengthened our leading integrated gas portfolio through the acquisition of Pavilion. We entered into the Ruwais LNG project in Abu Dhabi, and we took final investment decisions on a number of important projects, such as Manatee in Trinidad and Tobago.

早在2024年，我們也透過收購Pavilion進一步加強了我們領先的綜合天然氣組合。我們參與了阿布達比的Ruwais LNG項目，並對特立尼達和多巴哥的Manatee等多個重要項目做出了最終投資決策。

And we continue to look for innovative ways to unlock value across our existing portfolio. In the North Sea, we recently announced an incorporated joint venture with Equinor, adopting a new business model to deliver more value from our existing UK assets. In downstream and renewables, we continue to strengthen and high grade our portfolio.

我們將繼續尋找創新方法來釋放現有投資組合的價值。在北海，我們最近宣布與 Equinor 成立合資企業，採用新的商業模式，以從我們現有的英國資產中獲取更多價值。在下游和再生能源領域，我們繼續加強和提高我們的投資組合。

In mobility, we completed the divestment of Shell Pakistan, helping us achieve our Capital Markets Day aim of disposing of 500 sites annually. At the same time, we have now installed more than 70,000 EV public charge points globally, achieving yet another aim one year ahead of schedule.

在行動領域，我們完成了對殼牌巴基斯坦公司的資產剝離，幫助我們實現了資本市場日每年處置 500 個站點的目標。同時，我們目前已在全球安裝了超過7萬個電動車公共充電站，提前一年實現了另一個目標。

In renewables and energy solutions, we completed the acquisition of a combined cycle power plant in Rhode Island, and we are progressing well with the construction of our Holland Hydrogen I project, which will be Europe's largest renewable hydrogen plant once operational. And in Chemicals, we took a final investment decision to expand our CSPC petrochemicals joint venture with CNOOC in Diaba China. We are focusing the portfolio in areas where we can create value whilst also ensuring that we take opportunities to high-grade and all of these decisions are leading to improved delivery across the company.

在再生能源和能源解決方案方面，我們完成了羅德島一家聯合循環發電廠的收購，我們的荷蘭氫氣一號專案建設進展順利，一旦投入營運將成為歐洲最大的可再生氫氣工廠。在化學領域，我們做出最終投資決定，擴大我們與中海油在中國迪亞巴的石化合資企業——中海殼牌石油化工有限公司。我們將投資組合集中在能夠創造價值的領域，同時也確保我們能抓住機會實現高品位，所有這些決策都將改善整個公司的交付水準。

And with that, I'll hand over to Sinead, who will tell you more about our financial results and financial framework.

接下來，我將把時間交給 Sinead，她將向您詳細介紹我們的財務結果和財務框架。

Thank you, Wael. Let's start with adjusted earnings, where we delivered $3.7 billion this quarter. Whilst cash flow was strong, adjusted earnings reflected a lower macro and noncash items, such as well write-offs in addition to lower trading and optimization. This was partly offset by another quarter of strong operational performance. Our cash flow from operations was some $13.2 billion despite normal Q4 cash outflows such as the annual payments for the biofuel programs.

謝謝你，瓦埃勒。讓我們從調整後的收益開始吧，本季我們的收益為 37 億美元。雖然現金流強勁，但調整後的收益反映出宏觀和非現金項目的下降，例如油井註銷以及交易和優化的下降。但另一季度強勁的營運業績在一定程度上抵銷了這一影響。儘管第四季度存在正常的現金流出（例如生物燃料項目的年度付款），但我們的營運現金流仍約為 132 億美元。

I mentioned the strong operational performance this quarter. But if we take a step back and look at 2024, it was a year of improvements across the organization. Integrated Gas and Upstream performance improved year-on-year. At Prelude and QGC, we achieved record availability resulting in their highest-ever production. In Chemicals, we saw improved utilization, thanks to the ramp-up of all three units at Shell Polymers Monaca. And in marketing, we achieved the strongest annual adjusted earnings since 2020 at some $3.9 billion, just missing our end 2025 target despite a higher oil price than premise.

我提到了本季強勁的營運表現。但如果我們退一步展望 2024 年，就會發現這是整個組織進步的一年。綜合天然氣及上游業務業績年增。在 Prelude 和 QGC，我們實現了創紀錄的可用性，從而實現了有史以來最高的產量。在化學品業務方面，由於殼牌聚合物莫納卡工廠所有三個裝置的產能提升，我們的利用率都有所提高。在行銷方面，我們實現了自 2020 年以來最強勁的年度調整後收益，約為 39 億美元，儘管油價高於預期，但我們仍未實現 2025 年底的目標。

Mobility in lubricants had a great year, with lubricants delivering its highest result. All of this enabled us to achieve a full year adjusted earnings total of $23.7 billion. And on cash, we generated $54.7 billion of CFFO, our second best year on records. Whilst our free cash flow was $39.5 billion, higher than 2023 despite the lower price environment.

今年是潤滑油產業的輝煌一年，潤滑油業務取得了最高表現。所有這些都使我們的全年調整後總收益達到 237 億美元。在現金方面，我們產生了 547 億美元的 CFFO，這是我們有史以來第二好的年份。儘管價格環境較低，但我們的自由現金流仍為 395 億美元，高於 2023 年。

Moving to our financial framework. Our 2024 cash CapEx totaled $21.1 billion. We were able to invest for growth across the businesses, whilst also maintaining a high bar for investment. Our cash CapEx range for the full year 2025 is expected to be lower than our 2024 range. We will provide more specific guidance at our upcoming Capital Markets Day.

轉向我們的財務框架。我們的 2024 年現金資本支出總額為 211 億美元。我們能夠為整個業務的成長進行投資，同時保持高投資標準。我們預計 2025 年全年的現金資本支出範圍將低於 2024 年的範圍。我們將在即將舉行的資本市場日上提供更具體的指導。

We further strengthened our balance sheet and reduced net debt by $4.7 billion year-on-year whilst absorbing additional leases from major projects such as LNG Canada. We continue to deliver compelling shareholder distributions.

我們進一步加強了資產負債表，淨債務年減了 47 億美元，同時吸收了加拿大液化天然氣 (LNG) 等主要項目的額外租約。我們將繼續向股東提供令人信服的分配。

Today, we announced another $3.5 billion share buyback program, which we expect to complete by the Q1 results announcement in May. This is the 13th consecutive quarter in which we have announced $3 billion or more in buybacks. In addition, earlier today, we also announced a 4% increase in our dividend, in line with our progressive dividend policy, delivering even more value to our shareholders.

今天，我們宣布了另一項 35 億美元的股票回購計劃，預計該計劃將於 5 月第一季業績公佈前完成。這是我們連續第 13 季宣布 30 億美元或更多的回購。此外，今天早些時候，我們也宣布將股利提高 4%，這符合我們的漸進式股利政策，為股東帶來更多價值。

And with that, I'll hand back to Wael.

說完這些，我就把麥克風交還給瓦埃爾 (Wael)。

Thank you, Sinead. 2024 was a strong year for Shell, and we made significant progress towards our targets. I'm proud of the hard work and dedication demonstrated across the organization that has driven these achievements.

謝謝你，Sinead。 2024 年對於殼牌來說是強勁的一年，我們在實現目標方面取得了重大進展。我為整個組織所展現的辛勤工作和奉獻精神感到自豪，正是這些努力和奉獻推動了這些成就。

Our operational performance has improved. We brought some outstanding projects online, and we've taken final investment decisions that will help strengthen Shell for years to come putting aside our strong delivery. 2024 was also an important year for us given the external context. We're pleased with the Dutch court's ruling in favor of Shell in the MD case. We continue to believe our strategy is the right one for the global energy transition. And as a result, we will deliver more value with less emissions. As we build on the momentum that we have created, we aim to be the investment case through the energy transition.

我們的營運績效已經提高。我們上線了一些優秀的項目，並且我們已經做出了最終的投資決策，這將有助於在未來幾年內增強殼牌的實力，同時保持我們強勁的交付能力。從外在環境來看，2024年對我們來說也是重要的一年。我們很高興看到荷蘭法院在 MD 案中做出了有利於殼牌的裁決。我們始終相信，我們的策略是全球能源轉型的正確策略。因此，我們將以更少的排放提供更多的價值。在我們利用已經創造的勢頭的基礎上，我們的目標是透過能源轉型成為投資案例。

Now I'd like to highlight two upcoming events. First, our annual LNG outlook, which will be published on the 25th of February. And then on the 25th of March, we will host our Capital Markets Day in New York where I really hope you can all join us as we outline the next steps of our journey. Thank you.

現在我想強調一下即將舉行的兩場活動。首先，我們的年度液化天然氣展望將於 2 月 25 日發布。然後，3 月 25 日，我們將在紐約舉辦資本市場日，我真誠希望大家能夠加入我們，共同規劃我們下一步的旅程。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Thank you for joining us today. We hope that after watching this presentation, you've seen how we delivered strong results this year and how we are delivering on our targets. Today, Sinead and I will be answering your questions. And now please, could we have just one or two questions each so that everyone has the opportunity. And with that, can we have the first question, please, Seymore.

感謝您今天加入我們。我們希望，在觀看本次演示後，您能夠看到我們今年如何取得強勁業績以及我們如何實現我們的目標。今天，Sinead 和我將回答您的問題。現在，請允許我們每個人問一兩個問題，以便每個人都有機會。那麼，西摩，我們可以問第一個問題嗎？

Lydia Rainforth, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的 Lydia Rainforth。

When I think about the G&A, there's obviously been a lot of progress that you've made from 2023. So can you just talk about what philosophy you want to take going forward to help realize some of the value in the shares that you talked about? Are we thinking about now the base has been really good? So you can think about more of a radical agenda in a kind of jump delay fashion. But are you thinking that continued consistency and approach is probably still the best one for you?

當我想到 G&A 時，顯然自 2023 年以來你已經取得了很大的進步。那麼，您能否談談您希望採取什麼樣的理念來幫助實現您所談論的股票價值？我們是不是想想現在這個基礎已經很好了？因此，您可以以一種跳躍延遲的方式考慮更多激進的議程。但是您是否認為持續的一致性和方法可能仍然是最適合您的方法？

And then secondly, can you just talk about access to reserves in Canada? Because obviously, we've had the debooking of Groundbirch and as you think about the ramp up of LNG Canada and potentially a function of Phase 2, do you having this access organically to gas molecules in Canada, when I think about CapEx and just that area this is an organic discussion?

其次，您能談談加拿大的儲備資源的使用情況嗎？因為很明顯，我們已經取消了 Groundbirch 的預訂，當您考慮 LNG Canada 的增加以及可能作為第二階段的功能時，您是否可以有機地獲得加拿大的天然氣分子，當我考慮資本支出以及該領域時，這是一個有機的討論？

Lydia, thank you for those questions. I'll take the first one and maybe Sinead, if you want to pick up the second one.

莉迪亞，謝謝你提出這些問題。我會選擇第一個，如果你想選擇第二個，也許我會選擇 Sinead。

On your first question, so what's the philosophy? I think where we started in 2023, we said very clearly, we have an organization that has an amazing set of assets, a great portfolio, a great set of capabilities and that what we needed to do was to build a couple of key things. One, we needed to be able to make sure we consistently deliver results and do so through the cycle. So that point around consistency will hold not just for today, not for tomorrow, but I think throughout because we are still in a capital-intensive cyclical industry where value is created through the life cycle and what we want to try to do is make sure that we focus on the areas like performance, discipline simplification and inculcate that into our culture because I think that's a critical part of what we do. And part of the consistency is not just the delivery, but also the distributions, which is what you see us doing, 13 quarters in a row of $3 billion-plus, we need to create that.

關於你的第一個問題，哲學是什麼？我想，從 2023 年起，我們就非常清楚地表示，我們擁有一個擁有驚人資產、優秀產品組合和強大能力的組織，而我們需要做的是建立一些關鍵的東西。首先，我們需要能夠確保在整個週期中始終如一地提供成果。因此，一致性這一觀點不僅適用於今天，也適用於明天，我認為它將一直存在，因為我們仍然處於資本密集型的​​週期性行業，價值是透過生命週期創造的，我們想要嘗試做的是確保我們專注於績效、學科簡化等領域，並將其灌輸到我們的文化中，因為我認為這是我們工作的關鍵部分。一致性的一部分不僅在於交付，還在於分配，這就是你所看到我們連續 13 個季度實現 30 多億美元，我們需要創造這一點。

I think the second key piece we want to continue to do is to create a machine, a shell machine that also has resilience through the cycle, that we can generate cash to be able to take some of those countercyclical opportunities to have a healthy balance sheet to be able to do that. And that's what we are trying to establish.

我認為我們要繼續做的第二個關鍵部分是創建一個機器，一個在整個週期中都具有彈性的空殼機器，我們可以產生現金，以便能夠抓住一些逆週期機會，擁有一個健康的資產負債表，從而能夠做到這一點。這正是我們試圖建立的。

Now we have moved a long way. Capital Markets Day '23 to now you have seen us, in essence, do what we said we're going to do or a bit more. And of course, I'm playing out the structural cost reductions and the like. And so from here on, it's going to be -- we still have a lot more to do, and we have a bit more range now to look at other things, and you'll hear more about that, of course, in Capital Markets Day.

如今我們已經走了很長一段路。從 23 年資本市場日到現在，您已經看到我們基本上按照我們所說的去做了，甚至更多。當然，我正在實施結構性成本削減等措施。因此從現在開始，我們還有很多事情要做，我們現在有更多的空間來考慮其他事情，當然，您會在資本市場日聽到更多相關內容。

Sinead?

西妮德？

Thanks, Wael. And thank you, Lydia. Indeed, on Groundbirch, so two parts to that a little bit. So first of all, around the debooking and related to the reserves and then about what do we actually need. So first and foremost, yes, as you know, SEC bookings, et cetera, are very highly regulated, so they follow a specific process.

謝謝，瓦埃爾。謝謝你，莉迪亞。確實，在 Groundbirch 上，有兩個部分。因此，首先，圍繞退訂和與儲備相關的問題，然後討論我們實際上需要什麼。因此首先，是的，如您所知，SEC 預訂等受到嚴格監管，因此它們遵循特定的流程。

And in this case, it was really around the app, so the year average pricing that played out, which meant that the Groundbirch volumes got debooked as you know, that came about because of very low AECO pricing, which, of course, is due to almost the thinking process around LNG Canada coming up, so what people were doing was getting ahead of it and being able to produce the wells early on to sell into the market. And that, of course, drove the price down when Henry Hub was already very, very low and they had no ability to evacuate down to the US, so technical debooking. And of course, as you know, what we focus on in reserves very much is always around our contingent resources and the ability to extract value across things rather than the technical aspect of it.

在這種情況下，它實際上圍繞著應用程序，因此全年平均定價都發揮作用，這意味著 Groundbirch 的產量被取消預訂，正如你所知，這是因為 AECO 定價非常低，當然，這幾乎是由於圍繞 LNG Canada 即將推出的思考過程，所以人們所做的就是搶佔先機，儘早生產油井以銷往市場。當然，當亨利港的票價已經非常非常低，而他們沒有能力撤離到美國時，這導致票價下降，因此只能進行技術性取消預訂。當然，如您所知，我們在儲備方面關注的重點始終是我們的緊急資源和從事物中提取價值的能力，而不是其技術層面。

Second part of your question, of course, was around what do we actually need. And with LNG Canada, which is great progress and hoping to move forward towards the first cargo of course, middle of the year, same as we've talked about before. We've also talked about the ability for us to either buy in the markets or AECO directly or to be able to produce our own volumes. So we have that beautiful hedge implicitly in that, so what we see now, of course, is with very low AECO pricing. If it stays like that, I don't expect it to. But if it were to stay like that, we would be able to just take our own -- sorry, to be able to take from the market and we will not actually produce that much in. The alternative, of course, is if we are lower than where the market goes to, we will produce our own numbers. LNG Canada Phase 2 is also the part you brought to, that's for the future, and we look forward to working towards a proper decision on that at the moment despite getting LNG Canada Phase 1 up running and getting the cargoes out.

當然，你的問題的第二部分是關於我們真正需要什麼。加拿大液化天然氣計畫取得了巨大進展，希望能在年中完成第一批貨物的運輸，就像我們之前談到的一樣。我們也討論了直接從市場或 AECO 購買或自己生產的能力。因此，我們隱含地擁有美麗的對沖，所以我們現在看到的當然是 AECO 定價非常低。如果情況一直如此，我就不指望它了。但如果情況一直這樣下去，我們就只能自己拿貨——抱歉，只能從市場上拿貨，但實際上我們不會生產那麼多。當然，另一個選擇是，如果我們的水平低於市場水平，我們將制定自己的數字。LNG 加拿大第二階段也是您帶來的部分，這是面向未來的，儘管 LNG 加拿大第一階段已經投入運作並運出貨物，但我們期待目前就此做出適當的決定。

Thanks, Sinead. Thank you, Lydia, for the questions. Seymore, can we go to the next question, please?

謝謝，Sinead。謝謝莉迪亞提出的問題。西摩，我們可以進入下一個問題嗎？

Doug Leggate, Wolfe Research.

道格‧萊格特（Doug Leggate），沃爾夫研究公司。

Wael and Sinead, I wonder if I could take two completely different topics. The first one is with the Nigerian announcement at the approval at the end of December, and obviously, Singapore is still pending. I think you have the power sales or reduction in terms of your interests currently pending. Can you give us an idea of where things stand on the disposal visibility for 2025?

Wael 和 Sinead，我想知道我是否可以選擇兩個完全不同的主題。第一個是奈及利亞在12月底宣布批准，顯然新加坡仍未批准。我認為，就您目前懸而未決的利益而言，您有權出售或減少權力。您能否向我們介紹一下 2025 年處置可見性的情況？

And my follow-up is really on the progress on the cost cutting, obviously delivered the full number, 80% of the 500,000 barrels a day. You've done a lot of things the relation reset the balance sheet. At what point would the dividend growth start to get a bit more attention over and above just the pace of the buyback? Because at least from our standpoint, that seems to be what's holding back that market recognition of value?

我的後續工作實際上是關注成本削減的進展，顯然已經完成了全部數量，即每天 50 萬桶的 ​​80％。你已經做了很多事情來重置資產負債表。什麼時候股息成長會開始受到比回購速度更多的關注？因為至少從我們的角度來看，這似乎是阻礙市場對價值認同的因素？

Let me touch on the first one without giving a specific number at this stage and then maybe if you want to talk about the second one, Sinead. Let me just maybe pause there, Doug, and just update you on where things are. I mean I think firstly, on Nigeria, indeed, as you said, consent came through. We're still reviewing the conditions of that consent and are engaging with the regulator to be able to close that. That sort of will hopefully play out through the course of this year. Singapore, we're weeks away from hopefully getting to that completion. An important milestone for us and indeed another proof point of doing what we said we were going to do.

讓我先談談第一個問題，暫時不給具體的數字，然後如果你想談第二個問題，Sinead。道格，讓我在這裡暫停一下，並向您介紹一下最新情況。我認為首先，關於尼日利亞，正如你所說，我們確實得到了同意。我們仍在審查該同意的條件，並正在與監管機構接洽以完成此事。希望這種情況能在今年內實現。新加坡，我們希望還有幾週的時間來完成這項任務。這對我們來說是一個重要的里程碑，也是我們兌現諾言的另一個證明。

And then from a power perspective, we have, of course, evolved our strategy into one that is much more focused on how we are able to offtake electrons, with investments in batteries, but essentially also looking at flex investments, all to take those offtake -- those electrons through into our trading organization, which continues to be a real differentiated capability. We're not putting numbers out there in terms of each of those, what we're realizing in terms of proceeds. But I think suffice it to say that where we are focused is very much maximizing value from those divestments and strategically moving that capital into areas that we see more productive opportunities for ourselves in.

然後從電力角度來看，我們當然已經將我們的策略發展為更加重視如何透過投資電池來獲取電子，但本質上也關注靈活投資，所有這些都是為了將這些電子納入我們的貿易組織，這仍然是一種真正的差異化能力。我們並沒有公佈每一個的具體數字，而是公佈了我們所實現的收益。但我認為可以說，我們的重點是從這些資產剝離中實現價值最大化，並策略性地將資本轉移到我們認為更有生產機會的領域。

Sinead?

西妮德？

Indeed. Thanks, Doug. And certainly, your recognition of what we're doing in the company is appreciated. And as you say, it's beyond just cost cutting. It's about actually changing in the overall company. So yes, OpEx is down. Yes, CapEx is done. But fundamentally, this is by driving value. And you know we have a free cash flow per share metric, and that's very much our focus by creating value for each and every shareholder.

的確。謝謝，道格。當然，我們也非常感謝您對我們公司所做工作的認可。正如您所說，這不僅僅是削減成本那麼簡單。這實際上關係到整個公司的變革。是的，營運支出確實下降了。是的，資本支出已經完成。但從根本上來說，這是透過推動價值來實現的。你知道我們有一個每股自由現金流指標，而這正是我們為每位股東創造價值的重點。

So in terms of distributions, we have consistent distributions, as you know, in terms of both the progressive dividend, hence the 4%, but also in terms of the buybacks. So remember, 13th quarter in a row, $3 billion or above, which is giving you a bit of a feel for that consistency and the thought process behind it where we really value that and have a preferential distribution towards buybacks of the marginal dollar. And of course, it just makes sense for us. Buybacks are a great investment in our undervalued assets, of course, particularly when it's at this sort of share price, and that's where we focus at the moment.

因此，就分配而言，如您所知，我們有一致的分配，包括累進股息（因此為 4%）和回購。所以請記住，連續第 13 個季度，回購金額都達到或超過 30 億美元，這讓您對這種一致性以及其背後的思維過程有一點感受，我們非常重視這一點，並優先分配邊際美元的回購。當然，這對我們來說很有意義。當然，回購是對我們被低估的資產的一項很好的投資，特別是在這種股價水平下，而這正是我們目前關注的重點。

Thank you, Sinead. Thank you for the question, Doug. If we can go Seymore to the next question, please.

謝謝你，Sinead。謝謝你的提問，道格。請西摩回答下一個問題。

Matt Lofting, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的馬特‧洛夫廷 (Matt Lofting)。

I ask two, if I could. First, just reflecting on your earlier comments, execution on the strategic sprint phase has been very effective through the last 12, 18 months. I wonder the extent to which delivering on aspects like the cost reduction objectives so early, indicates the opportunity set that you see to enhance value and margins within Shell's existing asset base is even greater than perhaps you initially anticipated. I wonder if you could just share some thoughts on that?

如果可以的話我問兩個。首先，回顧您先前的評論，在過去的 12 到 18 個月裡，策略衝刺階段的執行非常有效。我想知道，如此早就實現諸如成本削減目標等方面，在多大程度上表明您看到的在殼牌現有資產基礎上提升價值和利潤的機會甚至比您最初預期的還要大。我想知道您是否可以就此分享一些想法？

And then secondly, integrated gas and hedging. It seemed that noncash derivative and hedging effects in IG are a key component of the lower EPS baseline versus cash generation in while that appeared to be somewhat quarter specific in nature, perhaps, could you just clarify whether there's material out of the market derivative position still on the book that could trigger a repeat of that going forward?

其次，整合天然氣和對沖。看起來，IG 中的非現金衍生品和對沖效應是 EPS 基線低於現金產生的關鍵因素，而這似乎在某種程度上與季度有關，也許您能否澄清一下，賬面上是否還有大量的市場衍生品頭寸，可能引發未來重複出現這種情況？

Thank you for those two questions, Matt. I'll take the first one and then have Sinead maybe respond to the second one. Thank you for the recognition of the progress on the Sprints. Like the way I'd characterize it is if I go back to this set of outstanding assets in this portfolio, we're blessed with a very, very good hand.

謝謝你提出這兩個問題，馬特。我會選擇第一個問題，然後請 Sinead 回答第二個問題。感謝您對Sprints進度的認可。就像我描述它的方式一樣，如果我回到這個投資組合中的這組未償還資產，我們會發現我們擁有非常非常好的運氣。

And what we have found as we have prosecuted the performance discipline simplification drive in the organization is, of course, started to challenge existing paradigms, paradigms that have been long lasting in the organization. So for example, our dependence on a very big contractor community in our IT spend, we have now reduced that by some 30%. The way we do work the amount we travel. So we have, for example, cut our travel expenses from the pre-curve time by some 30% to 40% in 2024. Those are just -- those are just examples. You can expand that into the way we mature projects where we used to often keep them too long in the funnel, spending a lot of money on them before we decide to can them or progress with them, the way we do our supply chain sourcing.

當我們在組織中推行績效紀律簡化運動時，我們發現，這開始挑戰現有範式，也就是組織中長期存在的範式。例如，我們在 IT 支出方面對非常大的承包商社群的依賴，現在已經減少了約 30%。我們的工作方式決定了我們的出行次數。例如，到 2024 年，我們將差旅費用較曲線前減少了約 30% 至 40%。這些只是——這些只是例子。你可以將其擴展到我們成熟專案的方式上，我們過去經常將專案在漏斗中放置太長時間，在決定將它們投入使用或繼續推進之前花費大量資金，這也是我們進行供應鏈採購的方式。

All to say that as we have gone into that space, we have discovered that we can do things differently. And that's why you saw the accelerated delivery of the structural cost reductions, but also that's why you saw the delivery of the more disciplined approach to capital allocation. We thought that it was going to take us a couple of years. From year 1, we were already able to bring it into the 22% to 25% range. And in year 2, we were able to come below that range. And so I think -- and I believe this organization has huge potential. Our collective job is to make sure that we create the space -- the ecosystem for our or people to unlock it. And so far, they have responded very positively, and I'm very convinced there is more to go.

總而言之，當我們進入那個領域時，我們發現我們可以做不同的事情。這就是為什麼您看到結構性成本削減加速實現，也是為什麼您看到更嚴謹的資本配置方法實現。我們原以為這將需要幾年的時間。從第一年開始，我們就已經能夠將其提升到 22% 到 25% 的範圍。第二年，我們就能夠降到這個範圍以下。因此我認為——並且我相信這個組織具有巨大的潛力。我們的共同任務是確保我們能創造出空間——為我們或人民解鎖的生態系統。到目前為止，他們的反應非常積極，我堅信他們還會做出更多努力。

Sinead?

西妮德？

Indeed. And thank you, Matt. And you asked specifically by Integrated Gas. And of course, you're referring to the fact of their earnings rather than cash, which, of course, was strong. So what you're referring to is the noncash impact of expiring legacy paper contracts or hedge contracts. So we don't tend to disclose in terms of specific hedging and why do you not do that because we tend to do risk management, of course, at a portfolio level typically and across many seasons.

的確。謝謝你，馬特。您特別詢問了 Integrated Gas。當然，你指的是他們的獲利情況，而不是現金，當然，他們的獲利是強勁的。所以你指的是到期的遺留紙本合約或對沖合約的非現金影響。因此，我們往往不會透露具體的對沖情況，為什麼不這樣做呢？

But specifically on this one, what you'll see in our audited accounts, which we've published. We talk about it this quarter, and we bring together both the derivative side or the hedge contracts on this side and the realized price, and you see it as being some $340 million for this quarter. That's the impact, noncash into the earnings. I do expect these legacy contracts to roll off over Q1, Q2 and Q3. So I expect an earnings impact of at least a few hundred million across both Q1, Q2 and Q3, so similar to this quarter. Of course, with derivatives, we have our hedges we have in place at the portfolio level, so there will be pluses and takes across that, but it's noncash. Thanks, Matt.

但具體到這一點，您會在我們發布的審計帳目中看到。我們在本季度討論了這個問題，並將衍生性商品或對沖合約以及實現價格匯總在一起，您會發現本季的價格約為 3.4 億美元。這就是影響，非現金部分計入收益。我確實預計這些遺留合約將在第一季、第二季和第三季到期。因此，我預計第一季、第二季和第三季的獲利影響至少為數億美元，與本季類似。當然，對於衍生性商品，我們在投資組合層面已經實施了對沖，因此會有好處和壞處，但它是非現金的。謝謝，馬特。

Thank you for the question, Matt. Thanks, Sinead. Can we go to the next question, please, Seymore?

謝謝你的提問，馬特。謝謝，Sinead。西摩，我們可以進入下一個問題嗎？

Biraj Borkhataria, RBC.

Biraj Borkhataria，RBC。

Obviously, you've made a lot of progress on the operational performance side and momentum on the cost. I just wanted to get a bit of clarity on how you're approaching sanctioning major projects. I saw the China chemical expansion FID. Could you just talk a little bit about the investment case for that project, how you're seeing the chemicals market? And I'm thinking in context of a number of the projects you may have sanctioned over recent years, a lot of them would have looked better at the time of FID than what they turned out to be in reality. So what makes you confident that this one is more robust?

顯然，您在營運績效方面和成本方面取得了很大進展。我只是想稍微弄清楚你們是如何批准重大專案的。我看到了中國化工擴建的FID。您能否簡單談談該專案的投資案例以及您如何看待化學品市場？我認為，考慮到近年來您可能批准的許多項目，其中許多項目在最終投資決定時看起來會比實際情況要好。那你憑什麼確信這個更強大呢？

And then the second one was just following up on your comments on the sort of projects in the funnel. You wrote off your exploration in Namibia. Could you just give a bit more color on any future plans you have there? And maybe a bit of color on that.

第二個問題只是跟進您對漏斗中的項目類型的評論。您放棄了在納米比亞的探險之旅。能否詳細介紹一下您未來的計畫？或許還有點色彩。

Thanks, Biraj. I'll take both. I think I think very quickly starting with the Namibia one, and then I'll come back to the broader question. Indeed, what is -- where there is no doubt in Namibia is there is a lot of oil. The reason for the impairment, of course, is more to do with our inability to be able to find a commercial pathway to be able to monetize that resource. And so that, by no way means that there won't be opportunities, and we continue to look at those. So of course, there's a lot of drilling happening in neighboring blocks. We continue to do our own analysis of the data that we have. So we have a lot of data that we are using. But suffice it to say, at this stage, we don't see that commercial pathway and, therefore, triggering the impairment. Who knows if things change, that will be a different view. But at this stage, this is a prudent way of being able to move ahead.

謝謝，Biraj。我兩個都要。我想很快先從納米比亞問題開始，然後再回到更廣泛的問題。確實，毫無疑問納米比亞擁有豐富的石油資源。當然，造成損害的原因更多的是因為我們無法找到將該資源貨幣化的商業途徑。所以，這絕不代表不會有機會，我們會繼續尋找機會。因此當然，鄰近區塊正在進行大量鑽探。我們將繼續對所掌握的數據進行自己的分析。所以我們有大量的數據可供使用。但可以說，在現階段，我們還沒有看到這種商業途徑，因此會引發損害。誰知道如果事情發生變化，那將是不同的觀點。但在現階段，這是一種能夠繼續前進的審慎方式。

On -- on the broader capital allocation frame, I'd start from a position of humility around the fact that we haven't always had a great track record in capital allocation. It's something which Sinead and I have spent a lot of time thinking through and trying to learn from the past and trying to improve. We do a lot of what we call investment learnings and understand everything from was the strategic context, the wrong one, was the -- do we have something behaviorally? Do we have something structurally? And we're putting a lot of remedies in place to be able to move us in the right direction.

在更廣泛的資本配置框架上，我首先要謙虛地承認，我們在資本配置方面並不總是有著良好的記錄。我和 Sinead 花了大量時間去思考這個問題，試圖從過去吸取教訓並加以改進。我們做了很多所謂的投資學習，並了解了一切，從策略背景來看，這是錯誤的，從行為上看，我們是否有所作為？我們在結構上有什麼嗎？我們正在採取許多補救措施以便能夠朝著正確的方向前進。

At the heart of it, when we're thinking through capital allocation choices, we start from the perspective of how are we able to drive towards our North Star free cash flow per share accretion. And when we look at these projects, we look at them from what is the risk profile of that project, and then what is the return for that project?

從本質上講，當我們考慮資本配置選擇時，我們首先要考慮如何能夠推動我們的北極星每股自由現金流成長。當我們審視這些項目時，我們會從專案的風險狀況來審視它們，然後看看專案的回報是多少？

And what you're finding is in a place like China, what we see is you have a terrific market or demand for chemicals continues to grow fast. We have a great platform in CSPC. We have one of the lowest cost delivery machines in the world when it comes to big infrastructure projects as we've seen in the first two phases of that project. We have technology, which we are deploying that allows us to have performance products coming out of that. You put all that together, it gives us confidence in that opportunity.

我們發現，在中國這樣的地方，化學品市場龐大，需求持續快速成長。我們在 CSPC 有一個很好的平台。正如我們在該專案的前兩個階段所看到的，在大型基礎設施專案中，我們擁有世界上成本最低的運輸機器之一。我們擁有技術，我們正在部署這項技術，它使我們能夠生產出性能卓越的產品。把所有這些放在一起，我們就對這個機會充滿信心。

We're still, by the way, within the Capital Markets Day '23 guidance of keeping our capital employed in chemicals flat through to the end of the decade. But what we're doing is we're building off existing platforms.

順便說一句，我們仍然遵循資本市場日 23 的指導方針，即到 2020 年末，我們在化學品方面的資本投入將保持平穩。但我們所做的是在現有平台上進行建置。

The final thing I would say is while we look at all those capital opportunities come our way, we keep a very close eye on how the risk reward balance there ranks up against the buybacks. Because at the end of the day, we're here to create shareholder value. And sometimes, that will mean this project does not make the cut because on the balance, it's better to go for the buybacks. And you saw us deliver some of that in the context of the 2024 results with the $21 billion of cash CapEx spend.

我最後要說的是，當我們審視所有出現在我們面前的資本機會時，我們會密切關注其中的風險回報平衡與回購的對比情況。因為歸根究底，我們是為了創造股東價值。有時，這意味著該專案無法成功，因為從整體上看，最好進行回購。您可以看到，我們在 2024 年業績中透過 210 億美元的現金資本支出實現了部分目標。

Let me leave it there, Biraj, Hopefully, that addresses the context. Seymore, can we go to the next question, please?

讓我把話題留在那裡，Biraj，希望這能解決背景問題。西摩，我們可以進入下一個問題嗎？

Josh Stone, UBS.

瑞銀的喬許史東 (Josh Stone)。

Two questions, please. Firstly, coming on to Chemicals. You highlighted all three units are now up and running at Monaca. When I look at your results, it's not obvious that's coming through to the bottom line, and we went to an even deeper loss in the fourth quarter. So maybe if you could just bode a bit more insight there. What was the contribution from the Monaca cracker and where the offset is coming from the portfolio? When do you expect this business can return to being at a breakeven at the net income line?

請問兩個問題。首先，談談化學品。您強調了莫納卡的所有三個單位現在都已啟動並運行。當我看到你們的業績時，我發現這對獲利的影響並不明顯，而且第四季的虧損甚至更大。因此，也許您可以預示著會有更多的見解。莫納卡裂解裝置的貢獻是什麼？您預期這項業務何時能恢復淨收入的收支平衡？

And then second question on the court ruling. You won your appeal on the MD case. I just think when you think about your investment priorities for the next five years, does this judgment to have any implications in your view and how you're planning to allocate capital?

第二個問題是關於法院判決的。您在 MD 案中上訴成功。我只是想，當您考慮未來五年的投資重點時，這個判斷是否會對您的觀點以及您計劃如何分配資本產生任何影響？

Thank you very much for that. I'll let you answer the first question in a moment and then come back to it. And maybe if you can build off Biraj's question just around the finance of China as well. So to the question there on -- Josh, on the MD case. So when the MD case came through, of course, we were in the midst of going through our own thinking around where we wanted to go as a company, and we had already chosen through the 2020, 2022 period to already have a number of targets out there from a carbon perspective.

非常感謝。我會讓您稍後回答第一個問題，然後再回來回答這個問題。或許您也可以圍繞著 Biraj 的問題進一步探討中國的財政問題。那麼對於那裡的問題——Josh，關於 MD 案例。因此，當 MD 案件通過時，我們當然正在思考公司未來的發展方向，我們已經選擇在 2020 年和 2022 年期間從碳排放角度製定多個目標。

And in a way, irrespective of where the case was going to go, we had already set our path, and we were moving in the direction we wanted. Our biggest concern and the reason we appeal that was the fact that the control of strategy was almost being advocated to be with a court in the Hague rather than actually with the Board where it should be. And so we were very pleased with the outcome of that case and hope to conclude it subject to the appeal, which happens by middle of February, the MD had the option to do that.

從某種程度上來說，無論案件最終走向如何，我們都已經確定了自己的路線，並且正朝著自己想要的方向前進。我們最大的擔憂和上訴的原因是，戰略控制權幾乎被主張交由海牙法院來行使，而不是真正應由委員會來行使。因此，我們對此案的結果非常滿意，並希望根據上訴結果結束該案件，上訴將在 2 月中旬進行，MD 可以選擇這樣做。

How does it change our perspective? Very little. I mean, the MD case did not change our perspective on how we were investing. We were very much going through in a responsible way. Having set the targets we set with a conviction that ultimately, the energy transition is not going to be solely driven by what energy suppliers do, but at the heart of it by what customers demand and by what regulators incentivize. And so we will continue to drive it from a prudent capital allocation basis, and nothing's changed in that.

它如何改變我們的觀點？非常少。我的意思是，MD 案例並沒有改變我們對投資方式的看法。我們正以非常負責任的方式進行。在設定目標時，我們堅信，最終能源轉型不僅取決於能源供應商的行為，而其核心在於客戶的需求和監管機構的激勵措施。因此，我們將繼續以審慎的資本配置為基礎推動這項進程，這一點沒有任何改變。

Sinead?

西妮德？

Thank you. And just as you say, while you mentioned about Biraj's question on China. So just also say, of course, when we look at capital, we're looking at every single dollar. And China is one of those unusual situations where as a stand-alone joint venture, and we're project financing it. So it's not about putting a significant amount of our own capital in. This is about ensuring that we utilize financing that is out there because of the stand-alone nature and its ability to generate its own cash flows. So that just gives you a feel from where are we allocating capital.

謝謝。正如您所說，您提到了比拉傑關於中國的問題。當然，當我們考慮資本時，我們會考慮每一美元。中國的情況比較特殊，我們作為獨立的合資企業，為其提供專案融資。因此，這並不意味著我們要投入大量自有資本。這是為了確保我們能夠利用現有的融資，因為它具有獨立性，並且能夠產生自己的現金流。這只是讓您感受一下我們在哪裡分配資本。

And Josh, you asked specifically on Monaca. So Monaca is indeed all three up and running of the units. So that's been progressed through Q4. Those are now focused very much on both the reliability of that, but also getting more products into the slate. So you see them begin to generate more and more money coming through from that, and that will continue as we progress through the year.

喬什，你特別問到了莫納卡。因此，莫納卡的所有三個單位確實都已正常運作。因此這已經在第四季度取得了進展。現在人們不僅非常關注產品的可靠性，而且也關注如何推出更多的產品。因此，你會看到他們開始從中賺取越來越多的錢，而且這種情況會隨著時間的推移而持續下去。

Of course, retail margins are very, very different. What you see, of course, is you're very much very low, shall we say, at the moment, very weak, but North America actually more on mid-cycle. And we're working on Monaca to be able to take advantage of that and pull it through. So I expect to see this year being the year where they actually begin to show into our numbers a little bit more.

當然，零售利潤率差異非常大。當然，您看到的是，目前您的經濟狀況非常非常低，可以說非常弱，但北美實際上處於週期中期。我們正在與莫納卡合作，以便能夠利用這一點並取得成果。因此我期望今年它們能夠更多地體現在我們的數字中。

One of the things you mentioned, though, is about CMP or chemicals and products being a little bit weaker. What I would say, of course, is also related to our trading and optimization. So it was Q4, and we saw less coming through on the trading side there. Just less activity in the market, and that played out relative to Q3. So it's probably just a good distinguishing aspect as well.

不過，您提到的一件事是 CMP 或化學物質和產品稍微弱一些。當然我想說的也跟我們的交易和優化有關。因此，這是第四季度，我們發現交易的進展較少。只是市場活動減少，這是相對於第三季而言的。所以這可能也是一個很好的區分面向。

Good. Thanks for that, Sinead. Thanks, Josh. If we go to the next question, please, Seymore.

好的。謝謝你，Sinead。謝謝，喬希。如果我們進入下一個問題，請西摩 (Seymore)。

Alastair Syme, Citi.

花旗銀行的阿拉斯泰爾‧西姆 (Alastair Syme)。

Sinead, a quick point of clarification on the indicative CapEx guide that you're giving. I think you said the 2025 range will be low than the 2024 range. Just a clarification that we were talking a 2024 reference that relates back to CMD '23. So that would be the $20 billion to $25 billion range. I just want to check if the baseline right.

Sinead，請簡單澄清一下您給予的指示性資本支出指南。我認為您說的是 2025 年的範圍將低於 2024 年的範圍。需要澄清的是，我們正在討論與 CMD '23 相關的 2024 年參考。所以這個範圍應該是 200 億到 250 億美元之間。我只是想檢查基線是否正確。

And then secondly, while how do you think about LNG European Asian gas markets given all this LNG supply that's coming in the pipes, do you feel a need to do anything different to prepare the business for this change in market dynamics?

其次，考慮到管道中大量的液化天然氣供應，您如何看待歐洲亞洲液化天然氣市場？

Thanks for that, Alastair. Do you want to quickly take the first one?

謝謝你，阿拉斯泰爾。您想快速拿下第一個嗎？

Yes, very happy to. And Alastair exactly. What we're looking at, of course, is we set a range in CMD '23 of $22 billion to $25 billion. And what we've said is that we expect this year's CapEx to be below the range of $22 billion to $25 billion. So you're exactly spot on. So the range will be lower than $22 billion to $25 billion. But that's all we've said at the moment and really look forward to being able to discuss both our thinking of that in more detail on that in March on our Capital Markets Day.

是的，非常高興。和阿拉斯泰爾完全一樣。當然，我們正在考慮將 CMD '23 的範圍設定為 220 億美元至 250 億美元。我們說過，預計今年的資本支出將低於 220 億美元至 250 億美元的範圍。所以你說得完全正確。因此範圍將低於 220 億美元至 250 億美元。但這就是我們目前所說的全部內容，我們真誠地期待能夠在三月的資本市場日上更詳細地討論我們對此的想法。

And to your question there, Alastair, on LNG, maybe just take a moment to sort of ground us with what we are seeing at the moment. 2024 was very light on new supply, so roughly 1% addition compared to the 400 million tonne sort of global market. We anticipate 2025 will be of a similar magnitude. So that's two relatively slow years at a time when latent demand continues to go.

阿拉斯泰爾，關於液化天然氣 (LNG) 的問題，請花一點時間來為我們介紹一下我們目前看到的情況。 2024 年的新增供應量非常少，與 4 億噸的全球市場相比，增量約為 1%。我們預計 2025 年也將達到類似的規模。因此，在潛在需求持續成長的同時，這是兩年相對較慢的時期。

Now you have two sort of different stories at the moment is what we see in Europe. Of course, the low supplies that -- the low storage that we see at the moment, that's just around 55% or so, which is low compared to the five-year average and could end up around 30% or even lower does mean -- and of course, the Russian situation does mean that there's quite a bit of demand still in Europe. Asia, a bit softer and partly because of price sensitivity, partly because of a warmer winter and partly because storage is healthy there. So you are going to see interbase in place.

目前我們在歐洲看到的是兩種不同的情況。當然，供應量低——我們目前看到的儲存量低，僅為 55% 左右，與五年平均值相比較低，最終可能降至 30% 左右甚至更低——當然，俄羅斯的情況確實意味著歐洲仍有相當大的需求。亞洲稍微疲軟，部分原因是價格敏感性，部分原因是冬季變暖，部分原因是那裡的儲存狀況良好。因此您將會看到 interbase 的存在。

As we look beyond that, the big question is what is the latent demand going to be? Because we know that at around $10 per million BTU, you have a lot of demand coming through. We've seen it, for example, in shipping, significant growth in shipping demand for LNG. We've seen it in LNG trucking in China and in India. And of course, we will see it play out in industry as many industries sort of go back to gas where they have the opportunity to do so.

如果我們進一步思考，最大的問題是潛在需求是什麼？因為我們知道，每百萬英熱單位的價格約為 10 美元，因此需求量很大。例如，我們看到，在航運領域，液化天然氣的航運需求顯著成長。我們在中國和印度的液化天然氣卡車運輸中看到了這種情況。當然，我們將看到它在工業領域發揮作用，因為許多行業只要有機會就會重新使用天然氣。

And so I don't have the luxury of just looking at the LNG market over the next two to three years. We need to be looking at it 10, 20, 30 years. It is a very robust market, 50%-plus growth between now and 2040. And really the opportunity for us to be able to take the incoming LNG Canada volumes, the cattery volumes, many of our LNG market creating opportunities and to really continue to cement ourselves to do that while recognizing that it will take time as Pavilion comes through for us as LNG Canada comes through for us.

因此，我沒有時間只關注未來兩到三年的液化天然氣市場。我們需要以10年、20年、30年的角度來看這個問題。這是一個非常強勁的市場，從現在到 2040 年成長率將超過 50%。這對我們來說確實是一個機會，我們可以利用即將到來的加拿大液化天然氣數量、貓舍數量以及我們的許多液化天然氣市場創造的機會，並真正繼續鞏固我們自己的地位，同時認識到，隨著 Pavilion 和加拿大液化天然氣的到來，這一切都需要時間。

We've always said 2025 was a year of balance in our supply portfolio. We don't have as much length as ideally we would like, but of course, we start to come into that length as we get towards end of the year.

我們一直說 2025 年是我們供應組合平衡的一年。我們的長度並沒有我們理想中那麼長，但當然，臨近年底時我們就會開始達到那個長度。

Thank you for the question, Alastair. If we can go to the next question, Seymore?

謝謝你的提問，阿拉斯泰爾。我們可以進入下一個問題嗎，西摩？

Martijn Rats, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的 Martijn Rats。

I've got two, if I may. I recognize there probably not an awful question we can ask the answer is not adjust it in a couple of markets day, but I'm going to give it to go nonetheless. I was wondering about the refining portfolio and Shell, in the sense that look, it's not that long ago that there were tens and tens of refineries. We're down to sort of 5%, but out of those two, Singapore being sold, the Iran and refinery in Germany being repurposed. So we sit down to three. And now they're quite large in and of themselves, but of course, three. This is a fairly small number. And I was wondering if refining still has sort of critical mass within Shell or whether we should also expect that, that much reduced portfolio of just sort of three units also at some point, become so disposal targets. I wanted to ask you about that.

如果可以的話，我有兩個。我意識到這可能不是一個糟糕的問題，我們可以問的答案是不要在幾個市場日內進行調整，但無論如何我都會嘗試一下。我對煉油組合和殼牌的情況感到疑惑，從某種意義上說，不久之前，這裡還有數十家煉油廠。我們的產量下降到了 5% 左右，但其中新加坡的煉油廠被出售，伊朗和德國的煉油廠被重新利用。因此我們三人坐下來。現在它們本身就相當大了，當然，只有三個。這是一個相當小的數字。我想知道煉油業務在殼牌內部是否仍然具有臨界規模，或者我們是否也應該預期，在某個時候，僅僅三個單位的大幅縮減的投資組合也會成為處置目標。我想問你這件事。

And then the other one, perhaps a bit more technical, but there is, of course, a reference to the additional lease obligations that will come when the Pavilion deal is completed. Can you give an indication of sort of the magnitude of what we should expect and put in our models for when that comes through in terms of the increase in the lease obligations?

然後另一個問題，可能更技術性一些，但當然，它指的是 Pavilion 交易完成後將產生的額外租賃義務。您能否透露一下，當租賃義務增加時，我們應該預期其幅度是多少，並將其納入我們的模型中？

Thank you for those questions, Martijn. Let me take the first one and then Sinead will address the second one. Look, I think what you said around our refining portfolio, of course, this was part of a long-standing strategic belief that we wanted to rightsize our refining footprint, which has brought us down from north of 50 to indeed sort of single digit at the moment.

感謝您提出這些問題，馬丁。讓我先回答第一個問題，然後 Sinead 會回答第二個問題。聽著，我認為您所說的關於我們煉油組合的問題，當然，這是我們長期以來的戰略信念的一部分，即我們希望適當縮小我們的煉油足跡，這使得我們的煉油足跡從 50% 以上下降到目前的個位數。

We have no plans to sort of get out of refining altogether, where we do have a strategic interest is to make sure that the midstream, the refining capacity, the storage, the pipelines are very much in service of what is a leading trading capability, and our ability to be able to continue to meet our customers' demand by having what I would call asset-right infrastructure. So our trading business -- our trading capability allows us to be able to really sort of draw on third-party supplies, but that needs to be underpinned with our own supply.

我們沒有完全退出煉油領域的計劃，我們的確有戰略利益，那就是確保中游、煉油能力、儲存、管道能夠服務於領先的交易能力，並且透過我所說的資產正確的基礎設施，我們能夠繼續滿足客戶的需求。因此，我們的貿易業務—我們的貿易能力使我們能夠真正利用第三方供應，但這需要以我們自己的供應為基礎。

So -- by the way, I wouldn't be shocked if we take a small minority equity interest in a refinery one day to be able to underpin that flow. But we're not looking to expand our refining -- our operated refining footprint. And if we do anything, it will be very selective investments to be able to just protect and support our flow. But we see this as a long-term play, not a -- let's sort of shrink ourselves out of this play.

所以——順便說一句，如果我們有一天在煉油廠持有少量股權，以便能夠支撐這種流動，我不會感到驚訝。但我們並不打算擴大我們的煉油規模—我們營運的煉油規模。如果我們採取任何行動，那將是選擇性投資，以便能夠保護和支持我們的資金流動。但我們認為這是一場長期博弈，而不是──讓我們退出這場博弈。

Sinead?

西妮德？

Thank you, Martijn. On this one, of course, we have to wait until it completes to be able to see the exact numbers. So -- but indicatively, it's less in LNG Canada and roughly speaking, you're in the $1 billion to $2 billion sort of mark. But let's see where it comes through. I'm expecting it to be probably a little bit towards the end of that range of lower part of that range that I've given you. But as I say, they are continuing to operate, of course, and we close in the course of hope, Q1, Q2. Thank you.

謝謝你，馬丁。當然，對於這一點，我們必須等到它完成才能看到確切的數字。所以 — — 但從指標來看，加拿大液化天然氣的投入較少，粗略地說，在 10 億到 20 億美元之間。但是讓我們看看它會出現在哪裡。我預計它可能稍微接近我給出的範圍的下限。但正如我所說的，他們當然會在繼續運營，我們會在希望的進程中結束 Q1、Q2。謝謝。

Thanks, Sinead. Thank you, Martijn. Seymore, can we go to the next question, please?

謝謝，Sinead。謝謝你，馬丁。西摩，我們可以進入下一個問題嗎？

Ryan Todd, Piper Sandler.

瑞恩·托德，派珀·桑德勒。

Great. Maybe first question on inorganic spend. You've done a great job driving capital down -- capital spend levels lower over the last couple of years but it's also been characterized by noticeably low levels of inorganic spend. How should we think about your approach to our appetite for acquisition going forward? And maybe any thoughts or comments on how you would characterize markets across your portfolio, E&P, low carbon, et cetera?

偉大的。第一個問題可能是關於無機支出。你們在降低資本方面做得很好——過去幾年裡，資本支出水準有所降低，但無機支出水準也明顯較低。我們該如何看待您對我們未來收購意願的態度？您對如何描述您的投資組合、勘探與生產、低碳等領域的市場有什麼想法或評論嗎？

And then secondly, on CapEx trends, I mean as we think about the go forward, I appreciate the guide in the 2025, but going forward, if the potential for further downward pressure, is that more likely to be driven by capital avoidance similar to what we've seen from the Rotterdam Biofuels project or are there other trends in terms of cost reductions, efficiencies, et cetera, that you believe can continue to drive further downward pressure on CapEx?

其次，關於資本支出趨勢，我的意思是，當我們考慮未來時，我很欣賞 2025 年的指南，但展望未來，如果存在進一步下行壓力的潛力，是否更可能是由類似於我們從鹿特丹生物燃料項目中看到的資本規避所驅動，或者是否存在成本降低、效率等方面的其他趨勢，您認為這些趨勢會繼續推動下行壓力支出的進一步推動下行壓力？

All right. Thank you for this, Ryan. Do you want to take those 2?

好的。謝謝你，瑞安。您要拿那兩個嗎？

Yes, certainly. So thank you, Ryan. I'll take the -- actually, the second one first. So with respect to the second one in terms of the CapEx trends, what is it? Are we seeing further on avoidance? Are we seeing efficiencies, et cetera? What we see there is a bit of a mixture.

是的，當然。所以謝謝你，瑞安。我首先要選擇—實際上第二個。那麼就資本支出趨勢而言的第二個趨勢是什麼？我們是否看到了有關迴避的進一步資訊？我們是否看到了效率等等？我們看到的是一些混合的東西。

So yes, you mentioned the Rotterdam Hafa project, of course. That's where we see, of course, stopping CapEx. But actually, what we're seeing is the teams are really just digging deep to be able to be more efficient in what they're doing. We see that on the wealth side. We see it in actually our project execution as well, where we're seeing people very, very thoughtful about where they spend and looking at what a risk tolerance is and what we can do to ensure that we drive the best we can out of our contracts. So actually, whilst you see inflation, of course, being quite hard in the last year, you see our team has been able to really work hard to absorb as much of that as possible. And that came through also in OpEx as well. So you'll see more of that come through on both the CapEx and OpEx side.

是的，您當然提到了鹿特丹哈法計畫。當然，這就是我們看到停止資本支出的地方。但實際上，我們看到的是，各團隊正在深入挖掘，以便能夠更有效地完成工作。我們從財富方面看到了這一點。我們在實際專案執行中也看到了這一點，我們看到人們非常非常認真地考慮他們的支出方向，並考慮風險承受能力以及我們可以做些什麼來確保我們能最大限度地履行合約。因此實際上，雖然你會看到通貨膨脹在去年相當嚴重，但你會看到我們的團隊已經能夠非常努力地吸收盡可能多的通貨膨脹。這也體現在 OpEx 中。因此，您會看到在資本支出 (CapEx) 和營運支出 (OpEx) 方面出現更多此類情況。

You then ask about inorganic. And of course, what we've done is our capital has come down in the last couple of years. And particularly, if you look at what we've done in 2024. We've really been about very limited inorganic in there. So it's roughly sort of $1 billion to $2 billion is in there from an organic point of view.

然後你問到無機物。當然，我們的資本在過去幾年已經減少了。特別是，如果你看看我們在 2024 年所做的事情。我們實際上已經了解其中的非常有限的無機物。因此，從有機角度來看，其金額約為 10 億至 20 億美元。

But that's not because we're not seeing opportunities. We're not seeing opportunities that hit on very high bar at the end of the day. So this is about a value lens. We're very much focused on every investment decision we make is benchmarked against our shares. So we will be absolutely happy and willing to do deals where we see growth in value, and you see that Pavilion being a case in point and plenty of others where you see smaller deals that we're doing, and we take a couple of percentage points in Gulf of Mexico or other places.

但這並不是因為我們沒有看到機會。到頭來，我們並沒有看到達到很高標準的機會。這是關於價值的視角。我們非常注重以我們的股票為基準做出的每項投資決策。因此，我們非常樂意並願意進行那些價值成長的交易，Pavilion 就是一個很好的例子，還有很多我們正在進行的小額交易，我們在墨西哥灣或其他地方佔據了幾個百分點。

So we are about investing for the future but fundamentally by making sure we compare one is the best alternative. That drop in organic is probably key to say. Most of that has been around downstream renewables because we're high grading and transforming a business where we spent a lot in the past, and we now need to deliver the returns against that as well. Thank you.

因此，我們要為未來進行投資，但從根本上來說，我們要確保比較出最好的選擇。有機產量的下降可能是關鍵因素。其中大部分都圍繞著下游再生能源，因為我們正在對過去投入大量資金的業務進行高品質發展和轉型，現在我們還需要實現相關回報。謝謝。

Thank you, Sinead, and thank you, Ryan, for that. If we can go to the next question, please, Seymore.

謝謝你，Sinead，謝謝你，Ryan。西摩，請我們進入下一個問題。

Christopher Kuplent, Bank of America.

美國銀行的克里斯多福·庫普倫特（Christopher Kuplent）。

Just two more quick ones, hopefully. I wanted to check what is currently the most tempting option for you to not cut capital. I appreciate you've done extremely well on the CapEx front, but actually deploy more capital. You've written off those wells in Namibia. Canada and AECO is causing you pain on the reserve replacement front, but wouldn't that speak in favor of an expansion of [filler] LNG? Or are you excited about Argentina? So I appreciate we're not going to get a list of projects now from UIL, but maybe you can give us a bit of a hint where you're currently most tempted to deploy more capital.

希望只要再快速回答兩個問題。我想檢查一下目前對您來說不削減資本最誘人的選擇是什麼。我很欣賞你們在資本支出方面做得非常出色，但實際上你們部署了更多的資本。你已經放棄了納米比亞的那些油井。加拿大和 AECO 在儲備替代方面給您帶來了麻煩，但這是否有利於擴大（填充）液化天然氣？或是你對阿根廷感到興奮嗎？因此，我知道我們現在無法從 UIL 獲得項目列表，但也許您可以給我們一點提示，告訴我們您目前最想在哪些方面投入更多資金。

And at the same time, perhaps a question for you, Sinead, you've put your 30% to 40% payout policy back on the slide. And I wonder whether you aren't worried that this looks a little out of date. I mean CFFO, the way you use it has been flat. Payout ratios have been above 40% for two years in a row now. How do you address investors' concerns that if CFFO for whatever reason goes down, your cash return run rate doesn't go down with it considering that you're already through the upper end of that range.

同時，也許我想問您一個問題，Sinead，您已經將 30% 到 40% 的支付政策重新擱置。我不知道您是否擔心這看起來有點過時了。我的意思是 CFFO，你使用它的方式一直很平淡。派息率已連續兩年維持在40%以上。您如何解決投資者的擔憂？

Super. Thank you, Christopher, for those. And I will start with the first one and then ask Sinead to cover the second one. Look, if I link back to the previous question, we are not approaching capital allocation from a dogmatic perspective, Christopher.

極好的。謝謝你，克里斯多福。我將從第一個問題開始，然後請 Sinead 介紹第二個問題。看，如果我回到上一個問題，我們並不是從教條的角度來處理資本配置，克里斯多福。

I mean, I think that is the big thing that we are trying to change from the lessons of history where we have said hey, look, this is the direction we need to take, therefore, buy through the cycle rather than actually one of the best things about our portfolio is we have breadth. We have leadership positions in multiple parts of the portfolio. We can be patient, and we can capture opportunities at the right points rather than trying to rush into that and even more so now, given the underpriced value of our shares, we can actually come in and buy shares to be able to continue to deliver value from the cash that we're generating. So we have multiple options.

我的意思是，我認為這是我們試圖從歷史教訓中改變的一件大事，我們說，嘿，看，這是我們需要採取的方向，因此，在整個週期內買入，而不是實際上我們的投資組合最好的事情之一是我們具有廣度。我們在投資組合的多個部分擔任領導職務。我們可以保持耐心，在正確的時間節點抓住機會，而不是倉促行事，更重要的是，考慮到我們股票的低估價值，我們實際上可以介入併購買股票，以便能夠繼續利用我們產生的現金實現價值。所以我們有多種選擇。

Some of the examples where we could deploy, I think picking up exactly where Sinead left off, downstream renewals, we have deployed quite a lot of capital and now it's about delivering the returns, which means you move closer to the integrated gas and upstream space, and there, we have opportunities through the funnel. We've just taken one of them with Bonga North in Nigeria. LNG Canada will be one that when the venture is ready to put a proposal in front of us we will scrutinize it, and we will look at it in the context of does it give us the appropriate return for the risk that we would be taking.

我們可以部署的一些例子，我想可以從 Sinead 停止的地方繼續，下游更新，我們已經部署了相當多的資本，現在是為了實現回報，這意味著你更接近綜合天然氣和上游領域，在那裡，我們有機會通過渠道。我們剛剛與尼日利亞的 Bonga North 合作拍攝了其中一部電影。當 LNG Canada 企業準備向我們提出提案時，我們會對其進行仔細審查，並考慮它是否能為我們所承擔的風險帶來適當的回報。

You mentioned Argentina. We're also investing there and are encouraged by what we're seeing from the new government. But again, we want to be able to make sure that the capital is going to compete with other options. So I'd sort of -- I'd say we're really continuing to look. And of course, inorganic will play in that if we find interesting opportunities. But like Sinead said, the bar is very high and to be able to beat buying back our shares with the risk profile that comes with that is not easy at the moment.

您提到了阿根廷。我們也在那裡投資，新政府的舉措令我們感到鼓舞。但我們再次希望能夠確保資本能夠與其他選擇競爭。所以我會說——我們會繼續觀察。當然，如果我們發現有趣的機會，無機材料就會發揮作用。但就像 Sinead 所說的，門檻很高，要克服回購股票帶來的風險，目前來說並不容易。

Sinead?

西妮德？

Indeed, and thanks, Chris, for the question. So indeed, where are we at the moment, 30% to 40% payout policy and four-quarter rolling basis, we're at 41%. So -- but more than that, we've actually had 13 quarters where we have now hit $3 billion or above in terms of share buybacks. With prices varying and at different points, I've had lean length on the balance sheet and at different points, we've been very thoughtful. So that pragmatism that we've talked about before comes through. So hopefully, that shows you consistency and predictability in terms of what we're doing.

確實，感謝克里斯提出這個問題。那麼事實上，我們目前處於什麼位置，30％到40％的支付政策和四個季度的滾動基礎，我們的支付率為41％。所以 — 但更重要的是，我們實際上已經有 13 個季度的股票回購金額達到或超過 30 億美元。由於價格在不同點不斷變化，我在資產負債表上持有少量頭寸，在不同點，我們都非常謹慎。這樣，我們之前談到的實用主義就體現出來了。所以希望這能向您展示我們所做事情的一致性和可預測性。

So any updates to our financial framework. As you know, I'm going to tell you we'll be at the Capital Markets Day '25, but I hope it's clear that we are distributing at Shell with a thoughtful point where predictability consistency and resilient and of course, we have a balance sheet strength, which will allow us to underpin that. So to remind you, I mean where are we sitting on gearing at the moment. So if I exclude leases, from a net debt point of view, roughly other by $10 billion. And if you do it from a gearing point of view, it's less than 5%, this is from the point of view of net of leases. So I hope that gives you a feel on our thinking around that.

對我們的財務框架有任何更新嗎？如你所知，我要告訴你，我們將參加 25 年資本市場日，但我希望大家清楚，我們在殼牌的分銷是經過深思熟慮的，具有可預測性、一致性和彈性，當然，我們擁有資產負債表實力，這將使我們能夠支撐這一點。因此，提醒你一下，我的意思是我們目前的槓桿情況如何。因此，如果我排除租賃，從淨債務的角度來看，大約有 100 億美元。如果從槓桿率的角度來看，該比率低於 5%，這是從租賃淨額的角度來看的。所以我希望這能讓你了解我們對此的想法。

Thanks, Christopher. Thanks, Sinead. Seymore, can we go to the next question, please?

謝謝，克里斯多福。謝謝，Sinead。西摩，我們可以進入下一個問題嗎？

Lucas Herrmann, BNP.

法國巴黎銀行的盧卡斯·赫爾曼。

Two, if I might. One, apologies, it's slightly philosophical. The first is straightforward per billion. Can you give us any better guidance as to when you actually expect that transaction to complete?

如果可以的話，我說兩個。首先，抱歉，這有點哲學化。第一個是簡單的每十億。您能否給我們更好的指導，告訴我們您預計交易何時完成？

And the second, Wael, is really to you and it's -- I'm just intrigued as to your own perception as to why it is that despite the very strong cash performance, earnings performance, you're essentially doing what you said you'd do. The shares continue to languish on I'd say, a pretty insulting multiple, but then that's my view, not necessarily yours. So -- yes, it's simply to get your perception of what it is needs to happen to drive the multiple ahead given the market increasingly seems to recognize what you are doing and the benefits are very clearly coming through in the numbers that you're presenting.

第二個問題，瓦埃爾，對你來說，我很好奇——為什麼儘管現金表現和盈利表現非常強勁，但你仍然在做你說過要做的事情？我想說，股價繼續下跌，市盈率太高了，但這只是我的看法，不一定是你的看法。所以 - 是的，這只是為了了解您對需要做些什麼才能推動倍數增長的看法，因為市場似乎越來越認識到您正在做的事情，而且您所提供的數字中的好處也非常明顯地體現出來了。

Lucas. I'll pick up the second one if you wanted to then the first one. Look, we -- I'll start with this as an engineer, I fundamentally believe in the forces of gravity. And I do believe that if you keep doing the right thing long enough, you will see that value coming through. You will see that re-rating coming through.

盧卡斯。如果您願意的話，我會選擇第二個，然後再選擇第一個。看，我們——身為一名工程師，我從根本上相信重力。我確實相信，只要你長期堅持做正確的事情，你就會看到價值的實現。您會看到重新評級的出現。

If I reflect back on the last two years, it's the beginning of 2023, and I look at our performance share price-wise compared to all of our peers, American and European. I'm pleased with the momentum we have. Of course, we'd like more. But ultimately, the market will dictate what the fair share price is.

如果我回顧過去兩年，現在是 2023 年初，我會將我們的股價表現與美國和歐洲的所有同業進行比較。我對我們的發展勢頭感到滿意。當然，我們還想要更多。但最終，市場將決定公平的股價。

What we can do and my own belief is focus on what we can control. And what we can control is just making the right decisions, building the confidence that the investors have in this management team, demonstrating a strong track record of delivery. We recognize we have and not to make up for, whether it was the dividend cut or whether it's the -- our ability to be able to deliver the returns on some of the capital investments we've made in the past. This is our opportunity now to be able to demonstrate that.

我們能做的以及我自己的信念是專注於我們能夠控制的事情。我們所能控制的只是做出正確的決策，建立投資者對這個管理團隊的信心，並展現出良好的業績記錄。我們認識到我們已經並且無法彌補，無論是股息削減，還是我們實現過去部分資本投資回報的能力。現在正是我們證明這一點的機會。

And I'm very pleased with the momentum. But as I said earlier, there is a lot more to do. And while this discrepancy continues, what a fantastic opportunity for those who believe in our story to hold on or to buy more as we continue to buy back our own shares and really deliver the free cash flow per share accretion that I think is exciting and one of the sort of opportunities in the sector to really ride the wave.

我對這一發展勢頭感到非常滿意。但正如我之前所說，還有很多工作要做。當這種差異繼續存在時，對於那些相信我們的故事的人來說，這是一個絕佳的機會，可以繼續持有或買入更多股票，因為我們會繼續回購自己的股票，並真正實現每股自由現金流的增長，我認為這是令人興奮的，也是該行業真正乘風破浪的機會之一。

And so that's all my own view, Lucas. Sinead?

這就是我自己的觀點，盧卡斯。西妮德？

And on the first one on Pavilion, Lucas, waiting for regulatory approvals. Hoping and expecting them by the end of Q1, but we'll see what occurs. And of course, with Pavilion, giving timing of flows, et cetera, I expect it to really start having an impact in 2026, but we will see it come in, in the course of this year.

Pavilion 上的第一家公司 Lucas 正在等待監管部門的批准。希望並期待它們能在第一季末推出，但我們會看看會發生什麼。當然，有了 Pavilion，給出了流量的時間安排等等，我預計它將在 2026 年真正開始產生影響，但我們將在今年看到它的影響。

Thank you for that, Sinead, and Lucas. And maybe Seymore, if we can go to the next one, please.

謝謝你，Sinead 和 Lucas。也許還有西摩，如果我們可以進入下一個話題的話，請講講。

Giacomo Romeo, Jefferies.

賈科莫‧羅密歐 (Giacomo Romeo)，傑富瑞 (Jefferies)。

Yes. Just two remaining questions for me. One I'd like to go back to the discussion around the Canadian gas price and LNG Canada and trying to understand that what price condition in the AECO markets will you be looking to develop your own resources. Obviously, now you said it doesn't make -- it wouldn't make sense at the moment. But I'm just trying to understand at what price level you think you'd consider start developing your own resources.

是的。我只剩下兩個問題了。首先，我想回顧一下有關加拿大天然氣價格和加拿大液化天然氣的討論，並試圖了解在 AECO 市場中您將尋求什麼樣的價格條件來開發自己的資源。顯然，現在您說這沒有意義——目前這沒有任何意義。但我只是想知道您認為在什麼價格水平上您會考慮開始開發自己的資源。

And if I stay on LNG Canada, it's -- and you look at the potential for an FID on the second page, you talked about some indication from local governments. What are the key hurdles do you see in order for you to have enough visibility to take a final investment decision on this project in the coming month or so?

如果我繼續談論加拿大液化天然氣公司 (LNG Canada)，那麼 — — 您在第二頁看到 FID 的可能性，您談到了來自地方政府的一些跡象。您認為哪些主要障礙可以讓您有足夠的了解，以便在未來一個月左右對該專案做出最終的投資決策？

Yes. I'll touch on the second one and then Sinead can talk a bit about how we're proceeding with Phase 1. I think on the second one, firstly, appreciate the support that we are getting from the provincial government. I appreciate the support we are getting from the federal government. We appreciate the support we're getting from the indigenous people as well in the area there. And we appreciate the support we're getting by and large from many of our neighbors in Canada.

是的。我將談談第二個問題，然後 Sinead 可以談談我們第一階段的進展。我認為第二點，首先，我們要感謝省政府給予我們的支持。我感謝聯邦政府給予我們的支持。我們也感謝當地原住民給予我們的支持。我們感謝加拿大眾多鄰國給予我們的大力支持。

So this -- I think the concept of an LNG development and the criticality of the role that it plays, not just for the economy in Canada but also in terms of what it does to support multiple different countries around the world as they go on their own energy journey, I think, is now well appreciated. If there was one thing that we will need to keep an eye on, it is going to be what is the capital that is going to be required to invest. And is this investable. We know that the AECO advantage is one that is strategically interesting for us. We have offtake from on Henry Hub basis, so having more AECO linkage is good.

所以，我認為液化天然氣開發的概念及其發揮的關鍵作用，不僅對加拿大的經濟，而且對支持世界各地不同國家進行能源開發的作用，現在都得到了充分的重視。如果有一件事我們需要關注，那就是投資所需的資本是多少。這是值得投資的嗎？我們知道 AECO 優勢對我們來說具有戰略意義。我們從亨利樞紐獲得了供應，因此擁有更多的 AECO 聯繫是件好事。

LNG Canada is one of the cleanest plants in the world in terms of -- from an emissions perspective. Therefore, the carbon intensity will be advantaged versus anything out there in the market. And of course, you have the proximity to the Asian market being on the West Coast of Canada. So there are so many attractive things, but it needs to make commercial sense, and we'll need to see whether the price is one that the press of the EPC, but I mean it's one that we can eventually bank on to be able to pass our expectations of returns against the risk profile we take.

從排放角度來看，加拿大液化天然氣工廠是世界上最清潔的工廠之一。因此，碳強度與市場上的任何產品相比都具有優勢。當然，加拿大西海岸距離亞洲市場很近。因此，有很多有吸引力的東西，但它需要具有商業意義，我們需要看看價格是否符合 EPC 的壓力，但我的意思是，我們最終可以依靠它來實現我們對回報的預期，以滿足我們承擔的風險狀況。

Thanks, Wael. And Giacomo, you're asking around when would we start to develop our own resources rather than buy from the market. It's actually a little bit more complex than that because when I look at Groundbirch specifically, what is very attractive about it is location and the subsurface. So we have an advantaged acreage at the end of the day because what we have there is quite prolific volumes.

謝謝，瓦埃爾。賈科莫，你問我們什麼時候才能開始開發自己的資源，而不是從市場上購買。事實上情況要比這複雜一些，因為當我具體觀察 Groundbirch 時，我發現它最吸引人的是其地理位置和地下層。所以最終我們擁有得天獨厚的土地優勢，因為我們那裡的產量相當豐富。

But beyond that, we also have many of them already discovered, developed and ready to go. So we have rigs there, we're producing at low rates at the moment. But more importantly, we also then have access to a plant where we can do the processing side of things and then access to transportation. So the proximity to be able to get it into the main pipeline and be able to bring it over, of course, to LNG Canada is key.

但除此之外，我們也發現、開發了許多可供使用的技術。我們在那裡有鑽井平台，目前生產力很低。但更重要的是，我們還可以使用工廠進行加工並進行運輸。因此，能否將其輸送到主管道以及輸送到加拿大液化天然氣公司 (LNG Canada) 的距離是關鍵。

So when we look at it, it's actually about the integrated economics on this. It's not just the local price because whilst I find AECO prices coming down and very attractive in many locations, it's why then access to the pipeline and the transport element office, which in some cases is just not there or the distance is too big to be able to do that.

因此，當我們看待它時，它實際上是關於綜合經濟學的。這不僅僅是當地的價格，因為雖然我發現 AECO 價格在下降並且在許多地方非常有吸引力，但這就是為什麼可以使用管道和運輸要素辦公室，而在某些情況下，這些辦公室根本不存在，或者距離太大而無法做到這一點。

And beyond that, some of the processing, of course, cleaning it up. So we continue to, as I say, produce at the moment, at small levels, and we have the ability to ramp up. And we have an A team there who know exactly when to pull when trading tells us to do so or not because of the difference and what they see in the differentials between the prices and the transportation. Hope that helps.

除此之外，當然還要進行一些處理，包括清理。因此，正如我所說，我們目前繼續小規模生產，並且我們有能力擴大產量。我們有一個 A 團隊，他們準確地知道在交易時何時應該撤軍，並根據他們在價格和運輸之間的差異告訴我們是否撤軍。希望能有所幫助。

Thank you, Sinead. Thanks, Giacomo. And let's go to the next question, please.

謝謝你，Sinead。謝謝，賈科莫。請讓我們進入下一個問題。

Irene Himona, Bernstein.

艾琳希莫娜，伯恩斯坦。

My first question on mobility earnings. Your margin per barrel last year was the highest since the pandemic, I think. But of course, the strategy is to dispose of lower margin assets. So in trying to think ahead about '25 mobility earnings, do you anticipate that disposal process can support further margin improvement?

我的第一個問題是關於流動收入。我認為，去年每桶的利潤是疫情爆發以來最高的。但當然，該策略是處分利潤率較低的資產。那麼，在嘗試展望 25 年的行動收益時，您是否預期處置過程可以支持進一步的利潤率提高？

And then my second question, you said Wael, there's a lot more to do. I was just looking at your slide 13, which plots the asset availability for upstream and LNG. And [about said made], I was a bit surprised by upstream. It's below 90%, below your LNG assets and definitely below one peer who reports the metric. Do you think there's an issue to be fixed there? And if so, what is the issue?

然後我的第二個問題是，您說瓦埃爾，還有很多事情要做。我剛剛看了您的第 13 張投影片，其中繪製了上游和液化天然氣的資產可用性。而且，[關於所說的製造]，我對上游感到有點驚訝。它低於 90%，低於您的液化天然氣資產，而且肯定低於報告該指標的同行。您認為那裡有需要解決的問題嗎？如果是，那麼問題是什麼？

Irene, thank you for those two questions. I'll take the second one and if you want to touch on the first one, Sinead. Look, I think I'll firstly start by saying we have really, really been driving what we call the brilliant basics. So just getting back to fundamentals all across our Upstream and Integrated Gas businesses. And you're seeing the benefits of that.

艾琳，謝謝你提出這兩個問題。我將選擇第二個問題，如果你想談談第一個問題，請問 Sinead 是誰。你看，我想首先要說的是，我們確實一直在推動我們所謂的輝煌基礎。因此，讓我們回顧一下上游和綜合天然氣業務的基本面。並且您已經看到了它的好處。

I mean, Prelude's performance last year was very strong. The Gulf of Mexico was very strong. You see it in our non-operated ventures as well. Typically, what -- it's important to sort of differentiate some of our peers' report reliability, and that sort of ends up -- ends up being in the 95%-plus, which is roughly where we end up seeing it.

我的意思是，Prelude 去年的表現非常強勁。墨西哥灣海浪十分強勁。您也可以在我們的非營運企業中看到這一點。通常情況下，區分一些同行的報告可靠性是很重要的，最終結果是 95% 以上，這大致就是我們最終看到的水平。

We report very much availability. And the reason is because when you get into areas like, for example, turnarounds, that's just time where you can be very reliable when you're up and running. But when you're in the middle of a turnaround, that's the asset is down. So one of the key levers for us is how to manage the turnaround cycles in the optimal way.

我們報告的可用性非常高。原因是，當您進入諸如週轉之類的領域時，這正是您在啟動和運行時可以非常可靠的時間。但當你處於轉型期時，資產就會下降。因此，對我們來說，關鍵槓桿之一就是如何以最佳方式管理週轉週期。

Having said all that, there is more to do, which is back to your earlier sort of comment around what I said earlier. There is more to do in terms of how we deploy, for example, technology. We now have centers of excellence that support our availability efforts globally rather than each one have each asset having its own, which doesn't allow you to optimize to the full potential. We have a lot more data understanding now of where our weaknesses and vulnerabilities are, and we're investing in them. So there is a lot of work that we know we can and should do. And that's where when I talk about more to do, I mean it across the board. And to me, that's a fantastic opportunity rather than a concern because what I have seen is when we put our mind to it as we have done over the last two years, we will improve.

儘管如此，還有很多事情要做，這又回到了你之前對我之前所說內容的評論。例如，在如何部署技術方面，我們還有許多工作要做。我們現在擁有卓越中心來支援我們在全球範圍內的可用性工作，而不是每個資產都有自己的卓越中心，這不允許您充分發揮其潛力。我們現在透過更多的數據來了解我們的弱點和脆弱性在哪裡，並且正在對其進行投資。所以我們知道我們能夠而且應該做很多工作。這就是當我談到要做更多的事情時，我指的是全方位的事情。對我來說，這是一個絕佳的機會，而不是擔憂，因為我看到的是，當我們像過去兩年那樣專心致志地去做時，我們就會進步。

And thanks, Irene. As you say, around marketing, well, first and foremost, $3.9 billion of earnings just off the CMD target. And of course, that was due at the end of 2025. And of course, we've set it from the perspective of a $65 real term. And of course, you know the price is certainly way more detrimental to them than that. So just immense pride and the team and well done to hybrid and the team won a way to go on it. It's just fantastic on that.

謝謝你，艾琳。正如您所說，在行銷方面，首先，39 億美元的收益略低於 CMD 的目標。當然，這個目標將在 2025 年底實現。當然，我們是從 65 美元的實際期限的角度來設定的。當然，你知道價格對他們來說肯定比這更不利。因此，我們感到非常自豪，並且祝賀混合動力汽車團隊取得了勝利。這真是太棒了。

So going to mobility, as you say, so 70% higher year-on-year despite detrimental price, which is what you're talking about, the margin per barrel that's coming through there. So what do we expect? We're seeing high grading coming through with [idodite]. So you've already seen some of the divestments. You saw Pakistan coming through. So it's not just by portfolio management.

所以，正如您所說，從流動性來看，儘管價格不利，但同比仍然增長了 70%，這就是您所說的每桶的利潤。那我們期望什麼？我們看到高評分通過了[艾多美石]。您已經看到了一些撤資行為。你看到巴基斯坦正在過來。因此，這不僅僅透過投資組合管理。

And we've got a couple more in the in the works as well. We've talked about Indonesia at 4, and of course, there will be a few others as well. But it's also by expanding our high-margin retail. You know at the start of the year, we actually bought Brewer oils 45 sites. So it's like making the most of the things that we buy using our capital very specifically to drive that high margin.

而且我們還有其他一些工作正在籌備中。我們在 4 點討論了印度尼西亞，當然還會討論其他一些國家。但這也是透過擴大我們的高利潤零售來實現的。您知道，今年年初我們實際上購買了 Brewer Oils 45 個網站。因此，這就像充分利用我們用資本購買的東西來獲得高利潤。

And of course, for us, it's the differentiated fuels that we get. And that's where we see the big difference. The difference at fuel brings the footfall in the sites, of course, which means that we get our convenience margins up as well. So we're focusing really on the strict cost discipline. You'll see a bit more coming through in terms of the portfolio high grading, and you'll see more in terms of cost efficiencies as well. So I really look forward to seeing what this team can do in 2025 that are off to a great start.

當然，對我們來說，這是我們獲得的差異化燃料。這就是我們看到的巨大差異。當然，燃料的差異帶來了站點的客流量，這意味著我們的便利利潤也提高了。因此，我們非常注重嚴格的成本紀律。您將看到在投資組合高評級方面有更多進展，並且還會看到在成本效率方面有更多進步。所以我真的很期待看到這支開局不錯的球隊在 2025 年能取得怎樣的成績。

Thanks, Sinead. And Seymore, let's take the final question, please.

謝謝，Sinead。西摩，請我們回答最後一個問題。

Michele Della Vigna, Goldman.

高盛的米歇爾‧德拉維尼亞 (Michele Della Vigna)。

And again, congratulations on what has been a very strong year. I would like to focus on the Renewable and Energy Solutions business, which has been loss-making for most of this year. You are making significant strategic changes there, but I was just wondering, in order for the division to turn back into profit, what do you think is needed? Is this an issue of portfolio or better integration with trading? Or is this also impacted by market conditions?

再次恭喜您度過了非常豐碩的一年。我想專注於再生能源和能源解決方案業務，今年大部分時間都處於虧損狀態。您正在那裡進行重大戰略變革，但我只是想知道，為了使該部門重新盈利，您認為需要做什麼？這是投資組合的問題還是與交易更好結合的問題？還是這也受到市場條件的影響？

Thank you very much. You want to take that?

非常感謝。你想拿走那個嗎？

Yes sure. Thank you for that, Michele. Indeed, what you saw this quarter, of course, was loss-making, and that's more about returning to sort of more normal volatility because there's two parts to remember to the renewables portfolio, which I think I talked about with Lucas last quarter as well. So we've got the underlying assets, the renewable assets that are being built out and those are loss-making at the moment and will be for the foreseeable future. But what we're doing there, of course, is trying to high-grade our portfolio. So you see us make changes. You saw some of that in terms of the impairment and some of the offshore wind walking away from early on at some hydrogen projects, et cetera, which we're very, very early stage. There's real discipline there.

是的，當然。謝謝你，米歇爾。確實，您本季度看到的當然是虧損，而這更多的是回歸到更正常的波動，因為可再生能源投資組合有兩個部分需要記住，我想我上個季度也與盧卡斯討論過這個問題。因此，我們擁有基礎資產，正在建造的可再生資產，這些資產目前處於虧損狀態，並且在可預見的未來仍將處於虧損狀態。但我們所做的當然是試圖提高我們的投資組合的品質。所以你看到我們做出了改變。您可以看到，有些氫能計畫早期就出現了一些損害，離岸風電也因此退出了，等等，這些計畫都處於非常早期的階段。那裡有真正的紀律。

And of course, you then have the trading side of things where we are seeing less volatility because this is a blend of both sorry, both gas and power coming together, so less volatility coming through that, and that really hit this quarter, along with the deferred tax number that sort of just crept in, which isn't quite as transparent in there, of course, which added to it. What we're doing is we're moving much more towards a trading led strategy, and you see that focus on particularly those flexible assets.

當然，從交易方面來看，我們看到波動性較小，因為這是天然氣和電力的混合，所以波動性較小，這對本季度造成了很大影響，再加上遞延所得稅數字的悄然出現，當然，這並不那麼透明，這也加劇了波動性。我們正在做的是，我們正在更多地轉向以交易為主導的策略，你會看到，我們特別關注那些靈活的資產。

And when we talk flexible assets, we talk about batteries and some of the combined cycle gas plants and things like that, that come through. So we're changing that portfolio mix. And you saw it particularly with the acquisition, of course, that we did this quarter, which also pushed up our CapEx, which was around the Road Island plant that we bought. So we're looking forward to seeing that coming through. But at the moment, yes, indeed, it is loss-making.

當我們談論靈活資產時，我們談論的是電池和一些聯合循環燃氣電廠等。因此，我們正在改變投資組合。當然，您尤其可以從我們本季度進行的收購中看到這一點，這也推高了我們的資本支出，這些資本支出與我們購買的 Road Island 工廠有關。所以我們期待看到這項成果。但目前，它確實是處於虧損狀態。

Thank you, Sinead. Michele, thank you for the question. And let me thank -- thank you all for your questions and for joining the call.

謝謝你，Sinead。米歇爾，謝謝你的提問。我要感謝大家的提問和參加電話會議。

I'm proud that we've delivered a strong performance in 2024. And today, we announced 4% dividend increase and another $3.5 billion of share buybacks, making this 13 quarters in a row in which we have announced buybacks of at least $3 billion. As we continue to build a track record of delivery and as we aim to be the investment case through the energy transition.

我很自豪我們在 2024 年取得了出色的成績。今天，我們宣布增加 4% 的股息並再回購 35 億美元股票，這是我們連續 13 個季度宣布至少 30 億美元的股票回購。我們將繼續建立交付記錄，並致力於透過能源轉型成為投資案例。

We wanted to wish everyone a pleasant end of the week. Look forward to further engaging many of you at our Capital Markets Day in New York in March. Thank you, everyone.

我們祝福大家有個愉快的週末。我們期待在三月於紐約舉行的資本市場日上與大家進一步交流。謝謝大家。