殼牌 (SHEL) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Shell's Second Quarter 2023 Financial Results Announcement. Shell's CEO, Wael Sawan; and CFO, Sinead Gorman, will present the results, then host a Q&A session. (Operator Instructions). We will now begin the presentation.

歡迎閱讀殼牌 2023 年第二季度財務業績公告。殼牌首席執行官 Wael Sawan；首席財務官 Sinead Gorman 將介紹結果，然後主持問答環節。 （操作員說明）。我們現在開始演示。

Welcome, everyone. Today, Sinead and I will be presenting our second quarter results for 2023. During Capital Markets Day, we reiterated our commitment to our Powering Progress Strategy, including net 0 emissions by 2050. We also outlined our plans over the coming years to deliver more value with less emissions.

歡迎大家。今天，Sinead 和我將公佈 2023 年第二季度業績。在資本市場日期間，我們重申了對推動進步戰略的承諾，包括到 2050 年實現淨零排放。我們還概述了未來幾年提供更多價值的計劃排放量更少。

I'm pleased with the progress that we are making on our journey. In the first half of this year, we delivered our second highest adjusted earnings in a decade, better than in the same period in 2014 when the average Brent oil price stood at some $110 per barrel compared with $80 per barrel this year. And we continue to help our customers cut their carbon emissions while reducing emissions from our own operations.

我對我們在旅途中取得的進展感到高興。今年上半年，我們實現了十年來第二高的調整後盈利，好於 2014 年同期，當時布倫特原油平均價格約為每桶 110 美元，而今年為每桶 80 美元。我們繼續幫助客戶減少碳排放，同時減少我們自身運營的排放。

For instance, in the first half of this year, we removed 0.4 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions through abatement projects. This removal is equivalent to taking more than 160,000 cars off of Europe's roads for a year. Performance, discipline and simplification continue to be our guiding principles. And in the second quarter, we demonstrated strong operational performance across our portfolio.

例如，今年上半年，我們通過減排項目減少了40萬噸溫室氣體排放。此次拆除相當於歐洲道路上一年內減少 160,000 多輛汽車。績效、紀律和簡化仍然是我們的指導原則。在第二季度，我們的整個投資組合展現了強勁的運營業績。

Take Prelude, our floating LNG facility in Australia, which delivered its highest quarterly production since start-up in 2018. In Renewables and Energy Solutions, our crosswind JV produced its first green electricity engine. This is an exciting ongoing project that when completed, is expected to produce around 3% of the Netherlands total demand for electricity.

以我們位於澳大利亞的浮動液化天然氣設施 Prelude 為例，該設施實現了自 2018 年啟動以來最高的季度產量。在可再生能源和能源解決方案中，我們的側風合資企業生產了第一台綠色電力發動機。這是一個令人興奮的正在進行的項目，完成後預計將滿足荷蘭總電力需求的 3% 左右。

In the Gulf of Mexico, our turnaround operations at Appomattox, Perdido and Olympus were safely completed ahead of schedule and below budget. And in downstream, our improved Shell V-Power formulation, which can clean up to 100% of deposits on vital engine parts, delivered strong volume and margin growth. However, despite the strong operational performance, our financial results were impacted by lower commodity prices, planned maintenance and the SKU of our LNG portfolio towards the northern hemisphere winter.

在墨西哥灣，我們在阿波馬托克斯、佩爾迪多和奧林巴斯的周轉作業提前且低於預算安全完成。在下游，我們改進的殼牌 V-Power 配方可以清除重要發動機部件上高達 100% 的沉積物，實現了強勁的銷量和利潤增長。然而，儘管運營業績強勁，我們的財務業績仍受到大宗商品價格下降、計劃維護以及北半球冬季液化天然氣產品組合庫存量的影響。

Our 4 quarter business and financial delivery has been strong, enabling us to responsibly invest in our businesses with used debt, all while enhancing shareholder distributions. At our Capital Markets Day, we announced a 15% step-up in the dividend and a plan to buy back a minimum of $5 billion of shares in the second half of 2023, subject to Board approval.

我們第四季度的業務和財務交付強勁，使我們能夠利用已用債務負責任地投資於我們的業務，同時增強股東分配。在資本市場日，我們宣布將股息提高 15%，併計劃在 2023 年下半年回購至少 50 億美元的股票，但須經董事會批准。

We continue to believe our shares represent significant value. And so today, in addition to delivering on the dividend increase, we are commencing a buyback program of $3 billion for the next 3 months. With that, let me hand over to Sinead to tell us more about our financial results in the quarter.

我們仍然相信我們的股票具有巨大的價值。因此，今天，除了增加股息外，我們還將在未來 3 個月內啟動 30 億美元的回購計劃。接下來，請讓 Sinead 向我們介紹更多有關本季度財務業績的信息。

Thank you, Wael. We delivered resilient financial results in the second quarter. Our adjusted earnings were $5.1 billion, we delivered $15.1 billion of cash flow from operations, including a working capital inflow of $4.8 billion. The working capital inflow was mainly due to lower prices, inflows from initial margin and a reduction in accounts receivable.

謝謝你，韋爾。我們在第二季度實現了富有彈性的財務業績。我們的調整後收益為 51 億美元，運營現金流為 151 億美元，其中營運資本流入為 48 億美元。營運資金流入主要是由於價格下跌、初始保證金流入以及應收賬款減少所致。

In Integrated Gas and Upstream, we saw lower prices, fewer trading and optimization opportunities due to seasonality and lower production due to planned maintenance, which included higher value barrels in the Gulf of Mexico. As Wael mentioned, and as we outlined during Capital Markets Day, our LNG portfolio is geared towards the Northern Hemisphere winter, making Q1 and Q4 typically stronger than Q2 and Q3.

在綜合天然氣和上游領域，我們看到價格較低，由於季節性而導致的交易和優化機會減少，以及由於計劃維護（其中包括墨西哥灣的高價值桶）導致的產量下降。正如韋爾提到的，以及我們在資本市場日期間概述的，我們的液化天然氣投資組合面向北半球冬季，使得第一季度和第四季度通常強於第二季度和第三季度。

In our Downstream and res businesses, marketing achieved one of its highest mobility unit margins in recent years, largely due to a combination of the driving season in the U.S. and an improving macro environment. In Chemicals and Products, the Products business was impacted by fewer trading and optimization opportunities than in the first quarter, whilst Chemicals margins remain below historical averages, despite a slight improvement quarter-on-quarter.

在我們的下游和資源業務中，營銷部門實現了近年來最高的移動單位利潤率之一，這主要歸功於美國的駕駛季節和宏觀環境的改善。在化學品和產品領域，產品業務受到交易和優化機會少於第一季度的影響，而化學品利潤率儘管環比略有改善，但仍低於歷史平均水平。

Moving on to our financial framework. Today, we are lowering our 2023 cash CapEx outlook to $23 billion to $26 billion as we continue to demonstrate discipline in our capital spend. We have brought down our net debt to around $40 billion, which is almost half of what it was in 2019. And finally, we are delivering on the 15% dividend increase that we announced at Capital Markets Day, whilst also today announcing a $3 billion buyback program for the next 3 months.

繼續我們的財務框架。今天，我們將 2023 年現金資本支出預期下調至 230 億至 260 億美元，因為我們將繼續恪守資本支出紀律。我們已將淨債務降至 400 億美元左右，幾乎是 2019 年的一半。最後，我們將兌現我們在資本市場日宣布的 15% 股息增長，同時今天還宣布增加 30 億美元未來3個月的回購計劃。

As we continue to believe our shares represent significant value we will commence a program of at least $2.5 billion at the Q3 results subject to Board approval. So this means we are meeting our target shareholder distributions of 30% to 40% of our CFFO through the cycle. And with that, I'll hand back over to Wael.

由於我們仍然相信我們的股票代表著巨大的價值，我們將在第三季度業績中啟動一項至少 25 億美元的計劃，但須經董事會批准。因此，這意味著我們在整個週期內實現了 CFFO 30% 至 40% 的股東分配目標。說到這裡，我將把任務交回給韋爾。

Thank you, Sinead. Looking ahead to Q3, the macro outlook continues to be uncertain with mixed demand signals in China, healthy inventory levels in Europe and Asia, but with general tightness in the supply of oil and gas in the medium term. And in our own operations, we will undertake considerable planned maintenance activities, including the Prelude and Trinidad and Tobago IG assets in the coming months.

謝謝你，西妮德。展望第三季度，宏觀前景仍然不確定，中國的需求信號好壞參半，歐洲和亞洲的庫存水平健康，但中期石油和天然氣供應普遍緊張。在我們自己的運營中，我們將進行大量的計劃維護活動，包括未來幾個月的 Prelude 和特立尼達和多巴哥 IG 資產。

We will continue to deliver more value with less emissions. Not through words, but through actions, remaining committed to our guiding principles of performance, discipline and simplification and aiming to be the investment case through the energy transition. Thank you.

我們將繼續以更少的排放創造更多價值。不是通過言語，而是通過行動，繼續致力於我們的績效、紀律和簡化的指導原則，並致力於成為能源轉型的投資案例。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions).

（操作員說明）。

Thank you all for joining us today on what is a busy day for results I expect. We hope that after watching this presentation, you have seen how we have performed in the second quarter of 2023. Today, Sinead and I will be answering your questions. (Operator Instructions). And with that, Dan, can we have the first question, please?

感謝大家今天加入我們，這對於我期望的結果來說是忙碌的一天。我們希望您在觀看本次演示後，了解我們在 2023 年第二季度的表現。今天，我和 Sinead 將回答您的問題。 （操作員說明）。那麼，丹，我們可以問第一個問題嗎？

The first question is from Oswald Clint at Bernstein.

第一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的奧斯瓦爾德·克林特。

Two questions really around the results here. Firstly, Upstream, we had the $700 million volume and mix negative impact in the quarter. And I think that's high-margin barrels, probably Gulf of Mexico. I mean the question is, does that all swing back now positively in the third quarter?

這裡有兩個真正圍繞結果的問題。首先，在上游，本季度我們受到了 7 億美元的交易量和混合負面影響。我認為那是高利潤的桶，可能是墨西哥灣。我的意思是問題是，第三季度一切都會積極回升嗎？

And how much would be offset now by Trinidad and kind of Prelude coming off in the Integrated Gas business? And just extending that question is, I mean, how do you feel about your net length here in LNG in the third quarter, just given it's not too long ago, third quarter last year where we probably had perhaps one of the weakest trading and optimization quarters through probably -- at least over the last 10 years anyway? So that's the first one.

現在特立尼達和綜合天然氣業務中出現的前奏將抵消多少？延伸這個問題是，我的意思是，您對第三季度液化天然氣的淨長度有何看法，因為就在不久前，去年第三季度我們可能經歷了最弱的交易和優化之一可能已經過去了幾個季度——至少在過去的十年裡是這樣？這是第一個。

And then secondly, I think Sinead just mentioned mobility having -- and I see that gross margin is one of the highest you've had in the last, actually, 5 or 6 years despite some of those concerns over the economy here. So the question is, has that quarterly result surprised you? Has it made you think about leaning back into this side of the portfolio, given that during Capital Markets Day, we've obviously -- we're seeing the CapEx come down within that business from 2024 onwards?

其次，我認為西尼德剛剛提到了流動性——我認為毛利率是過去五六年來最高的之一，儘管對這裡的經濟存在一些擔憂。那麼問題來了，這個季度的業績讓你感到驚訝嗎？鑑於在資本市場日期間，我們顯然看到從 2024 年起該業務的資本支出有所下降，這是否讓您考慮重新投資組合的這一方面？

Great. Thank you, Oswald. I'll take the first one, if you want to take the next one, Sinead? I think on the first one, Oswald, just around this quarter first maybe -- and maybe even backing out a bit. So the Upstream business actually is delivering very strong operational performance overall. As is IG actually, it's been a good quarter for both businesses.

偉大的。謝謝你，奧斯瓦爾德。我選第一個，如果你想選下一個，Sinead？我認為關於第一個，奧斯瓦爾德，可能會在本季度左右首先出現——甚至可能會稍微退出。因此，上游業務實際上總體上提供了非常強勁的運營績效。實際上，IG 也是如此，這對兩家公司來說都是一個不錯的季度。

To give you an example, in Upstream, we have seen Bonga at a 5-year high on availability. The Gulf of Mexico is ramping up nicely on the Vito asset up to north of 90% at the moment. And of course, we have indeed had 3 major turnarounds there this quarter. And all 3 were done safely. We're done ahead of schedule and we're done below budget.

舉個例子，在 Upstream 中，我們看到 Bonga 的可用性達到了 5 年來的最高水平。墨西哥灣 Vito 資產的產能目前已達到 90% 以上。當然，本季度我們確實實現了 3 次重大轉變。全部 3 次均安全完成。我們提前完成了任務並且低於預算。

And those are amongst the most valuable boes we have in the portfolio. So indeed, those come back into the portfolio going into the third quarter. A couple of points that I would make. We have other maintenance and turnarounds going on in the third quarter and also high-margin barrel locations, like, for example, the U.K. is one, Kazakhstan is another.

這些是我們投資組合中最有價值的股票之一。事實上，這些產品將在第三季度重新回到投資組合中。我想提幾點。我們在第三季度進行了其他維護和周轉，還有高利潤桶地點，例如英國是其中之一，哈薩克斯坦是另一個。

So we will have a bit more activity going into the next quarter. I won't give you numbers in terms of how that swing happens, but that gives you, hopefully, a feel. When it comes to Upstream, the other thing to consider is it will also depend, of course, on the weather and in particular, hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico.

因此，我們將在下個季度開展更多活動。我不會給你關於這種擺動如何發生的數字，但希望這能給你一種感覺。當談到上游時，另一件事要考慮的是，當然，它還取決於天氣，特別是墨西哥灣的颶風季節。

So something to keep an eye on, which we also do. On the IG side, T&T, Trinidad and Tobago and Prelude indeed go into turnaround season now. And that's why you see the lower guidance in terms of volumes. We -- typically Q2 and Q3 are not too dissimilar in that we don't have a lot of length. Again, we are much more geared towards the Northern Hemisphere winter.

所以需要留意一些事情，我們也在做。 IG方面，T&T、特立尼達和多巴哥以及Prelude現在確實進入了扭虧為盈的賽季。這就是為什麼您會看到銷量指引較低的原因。我們——通常 Q2 和 Q3 並沒有太大的不同，因為我們沒有太多的長度。同樣，我們更適合北半球的冬天。

And if we can continue to make sure that the volumes are delivered, our traders will hopefully have opportunities, but it is not a high optimization quarter. Typically, that comes in the fourth quarter and the first quarter, as you know well. I'll leave it there. Sinead.

如果我們能夠繼續確保交付量，我們的交易員有望獲得機會，但這不是一個高度優化的季度。正如您所知，通常會在第四季度和第一季度發生。我會把它留在那裡。西尼德.

Indeed. Thank you. And also, yes, great to see high numbers for mobility, indeed, $900 million coming through this quarter. We know that our marketing business is very robust coming into the season in the sense that you've got driving season occurring, of course. And you see that through the end of Q2 and into Q3.

的確。謝謝。而且，是的，很高興看到流動性的高數字，事實上，本季度收入達 9 億美元。我們知道，我們的營銷業務在進入季節時非常強勁，因為當然，駕駛季節即將到來。從第二季度末到第三季度，您都會看到這一點。

I think it's also fair to say that often with a lower price environment, we see our Downstream business, but particularly marketing actually being quite resilient in this. When we talked about Capital Markets Day, we were very much talking about value over volume and making sure that we focus on where we put capital. So I don't think anything has changed from then.

我認為公平地說，通常在較低的價格環境下，我們看到我們的下游業務，但特別是營銷實際上在這方面相當有彈性。當我們談論資本市場日時，我們更多地談論的是價值而不是數量，並確保我們關注我們的資本投入方向。所以我認為從那時起什麼都沒有改變。

You see the results coming through in terms of value from certain areas, and we will make sure that we continue to spend more of our money there and fundamentally believing in the future of that part of the business. So you'll see us being very rigorous in terms of where we are.

你會看到某些領域的價值所帶來的結果，我們將確保我們繼續在這些領域投入更多資金，並從根本上相信這部分業務的未來。所以你會看到我們對我們所處的位置非常嚴格。

Thanks, Sinead.

謝謝，西妮德。

The next question is from Irene Himona at Societe Generale.

下一個問題來自法國興業銀行的艾琳·希莫納。

My first question is on the second quarter group adjusted operating expenses. It was up 3.6% year-on-year. I presume maintenance had a part to play. Obviously, you have a target for a $2 billion to $3 billion reduction by 2025. And you have -- you will have initiated actions. How long do you allow before we start seeing the benefits of those plans, please?

我的第一個問題是關於第二季度集團調整後的運營費用。同比增長3.6%。我認為維護起了一定作用。顯然，你們的目標是到 2025 年減少 20 億至 30 億美元。你們已經——你們將採取行動。請問您需要多長時間我們才能開始看到這些計劃的好處？

And then my second question on Chemicals and the new plant in Pennsylvania. Can you talk about where capacity utilization stands now? And how long do you anticipate to get up to normal? And then is the slow ramp-up by design? Or were there some start-up snags perhaps?

然後是我關於化學品和賓夕法尼亞州新工廠的第二個問題。您能談談現在的產能利用率嗎？您預計需要多長時間才能恢復正常？那麼緩慢的增長是故意的嗎？或者可能存在一些啟動障礙？

Thank you. You want to take the first one? I can take the second one.

謝謝。你想拿第一個嗎？我可以拿第二個。

Sure. Indeed. Thanks, Irene. Indeed, we talked about in Capital Markets Day, as you say, $2 billion, $3 billion in terms of reducing our structural OpEx there. And that was by the end of 2025. So when I think of OpEx, I tend to think of it from 2 different points: one is where we pay; and the second is how we play.

當然。的確。謝謝，艾琳。事實上，正如您所說，我們在資本市場日談到了減少結構性運營支出 20 億美元、30 億美元。那是到 2025 年底。所以，當我想到運營支出時，我傾向於從兩個不同的點來考慮：一是我們支付的地方；二是我們支付的費用。第二是我們的比賽方式。

So in terms of the where we play, what we see there, of course, is very much around -- that's very much top-down. And in terms of top down, that's by the decisions we make at the Executive Committee in terms of what our portfolio is. That you'll see quicker, you'll see that much faster. And of course, you are seeing that already in terms of aspects where we've announced looking at Pakistan, hoping to get quite close to signing in terms of (inaudible) the U.K. energy retail in homes for gas and power.

因此，就我們比賽的地點而言，我們在那裡看到的當然是非常普遍的——這是非常自上而下的。從自上而下的角度來看，這是我們在執行委員會根據我們的投資組合做出的決定。你會看得更快，你會看得更快。當然，您已經在我們宣布關注巴基斯坦的方面看到了這一點，希望在（聽不清）英國家庭天然氣和電力能源零售方面非常接近簽署。

So those are different examples. And that will be much, much faster. And you'll see that probably over the next 12 months, and you'll see us report right on that. The other side of things in terms of how we play, that's much more, of course, as you can imagine, building from the bottoms up, and that's very much around getting the grassroots together and ensuring that we have everyone working with us. So that will take more time. You'll see that play out over a period. And yes, we look forward to coming back to you with some real examples of that as it plays out, but assume that takes time.

所以這些是不同的例子。這將會快得多。您可能會在接下來的 12 個月內看到這一點，並且您會看到我們對此進行的報告。事情的另一面，就我們的比賽方式而言，當然，正如你可以想像的那樣，是自下而上的建設，這很大程度上是為了讓基層團結起來，並確保我們讓每個人都與我們合作。所以這需要更多時間。你會看到這種情況在一段時間內發生。是的，我們期待著向您提供一些真實的例子，但假設這需要時間。

Thanks, Sinead. Irene, your second question. So Penn Chem what we call in our Shell Polymers Monaca. Firstly, just again, the strategic context of Penn Chem. It's an important valuable asset for us. It sits in this catchment area where you have 70% of North American demand within a 700-mile radius.

謝謝，西妮德。艾琳，你的第二個問題。 Penn Chem 就是我們所說的殼牌聚合物 Monaca。首先，再說一次，Penn Chem 的戰略背景。這對我們來說是一項重要的寶貴資產。它位於這個集水區，700 英里半徑內擁有北美 70% 的需求。

You are on a supply basis sitting right next to the Marcellus. And therefore, that Marcellus gas doesn't have to cross all the way to the Gulf Coast to be able to be monetized. And of course, there's fiscal advantages being there with the support that the Pennsylvania government provides for economic development. So the fundamentals of the project are sound.

你的座位就在馬塞勒斯旁邊，是有供應的。因此，馬塞勒斯天然氣不必一路穿越到墨西哥灣沿岸就能夠貨幣化。當然，賓夕法尼亞州政府為經濟發展提供的支持也具有財政優勢。因此，該項目的基礎是健全的。

It's a project that we expect to deliver some $1 billion to $1.5 billion of EBITDA when all is said and done. Where is the project at the moment, it has had a long ramp-up. No, this was not by design. There were elements of it, of course, that were by design, but there were a couple of equipment issues that we've had to work on, and we are in the process of repairing that equipment.

當一切塵埃落定後，我們預計這個項目將帶來約 10 億至 15 億美元的 EBITDA。該項目目前在哪裡，它已經經歷了很長的爬坡期。不，這不是設計使然。當然，其中有些元素是設計使然的，但我們必須解決一些設備問題，我們正在修復這些設備。

So no major issues, but it does mean that it has slowed down compared to what we would have wanted to be. So where are we at the moment? Two of the 3 polyethylene trains are up and running at or slightly above capacity at the moment. So roughly 2/3 of the plant is up and running. The other -- third train is the one that's being worked on with one particular piece of equipment being repaired. And that's what the focus is on.

所以沒有什麼大問題，但這確實意味著與我們想要的相比，它已經放緩了。那麼我們現在在哪裡？目前，3 列聚乙烯列車中的 2 列已按容量或略高於容量啟動並運行。因此，大約 2/3 的工廠已啟動並運行。另一列——第三列列車正在維修，其中一台特定設備正在維修。這就是重點。

We're expecting to be at full throttle by the first quarter of next year. And importantly, as we go through that, we are looking to certify a whole bunch of our 40 grades of products that we have there to be able to achieve the premium valuation for those products. That will happen in stages, but that will take a bit more time, of course, once you have all 3 trains up and running. So it's coming, but it's taken a bit longer than we would have liked. Thank you for the question.

我們預計明年第一季度將全力以赴。重要的是，在我們進行這一過程時，我們希望對我們擁有的 40 個等級的一整套產品進行認證，以便能夠實現這些產品的溢價估值。這將分階段進行，但當然，一旦所有 3 列火車都啟動並運行，這將需要更多時間。所以它即將到來，但花費的時間比我們希望的要長一些。感謝你的提問。

The next question is from Lydia Rainforth at Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Lydia Rainforth。

Two questions, if I could. The first, I guess it has been 6 weeks now since we met in New York. So not that sort of long time, but lots of energy to get things done. Can you talk us through what reception you've had within the company? Because clearly, there were some highly publicized departures. And how much do you think you can drive cultural change?

如果可以的話，有兩個問題。第一，我想自從我們在紐約見面以來已經有六個星期了。所以不是很長的時間，而是大量的精力來完成事情。您能告訴我們您在公司內部受到的歡迎嗎？因為顯然，有一些廣為人知的離職事件。您認為您能在多大程度上推動文化變革？

And linked to that, Sinead, if I can come back to the OpEx side -- and thank you for the additional disclosure on the segment cost and the split between types of costs. What do you actually want us to track with this? And I'll come back, why have you got cost control? And you can see it in your Upstream business, the cost coming down and yet is that marketing and Chemicals and Products businesses where the costs are going up. Is that culturally something different between the 2 businesses?

與此相關的是，Sinead，如果我能回到運營支出方面，感謝您對細分成本和成本類型之間的劃分進行額外披露。您實際上希望我們跟踪什麼？我會回來問你為什麼要控製成本？您可以在上游業務中看到成本下降，但營銷以及化學品和產品業務的成本卻在上升。兩家企業之間的文化有什麼不同嗎？

Great. Let me start with the reception of the company and then let you Sinead address the second one. Lydia, thank you for the question. I think firstly, Capital Markets Day was received as a significant addition of clarity to the organization. The issue we have typically had is not what we do, it's what we stopped doing.

偉大的。讓我先從公司的接待開始，然後讓西尼德（Sinead）談談第二個問題。莉迪亞，謝謝你的提問。我認為首先，資本市場日被視為對組織的清晰度的重要補充。我們通常遇到的問題不是我們做了什麼，而是我們停止了做什麼。

And so a lot of what we try to do with Capital Markets Day is to provide real clarity around a few things that we are doing. So let me just give you an example to be able to bring it to life. We have multiple, what we call, sectoral organizations, many sector organizations, trying to do their best to help that sector decarbonize.

因此，我們在資本市場日所做的很多事情就是讓我們正在做的一些事情變得真正清晰。因此，讓我給您舉一個例子，以便能夠將其變為現實。我們有多個部門組織，很多部門組織，都在盡力幫助該部門脫碳。

We had an oil and gas sector, for example, we had an agricultural sector and so on and so forth. Since Capital Markets Day, we have moved very quickly to be able to focus on the 2 sectors we said we want to really focus on, which is transportation and industry. And that's just an example of when we made the choice, at least it helps the organization then really channel their collective energy into that space.

例如，我們有石油和天然氣部門，我們有農業部門等等。自資本市場日以來，我們採取了非常迅速的行動，以便能夠專注於我們所說的我們真正想要關注的兩個領域，即運輸和工業。這只是我們做出選擇的一個例子，至少它可以幫助組織真正將他們的集體能量引導到該領域。

By and large, of course, there's been a lot of positive feedback from the organization. I'd be lying to you if I said there weren't some who were also questioning, so what does that mean in terms of energy transition? Not because of what they heard or then hear in Capital Markets Day. But of course, there's also the media and the press which raises alarm bells in their minds.

當然，總的來說，該組織收到了很多積極的反饋。如果我說沒有人也在質疑，那我就是在騙你，那麼這對於能源轉型意味著什麼？不是因為他們在資本市場日聽到或隨後聽到的內容。當然，也有媒體和報刊在他們心中敲響了警鐘。

And the biggest reflection I've had is because our energy transition strategy is sitting in March to be published, it just does mean there's a bit of a gap. And so there's less of an issue around the culture of driving the organization forward, but making sure the organization fully sees that we are doubling down on both purpose and profit, not one or the other.

我最大的反思是，我們的能源轉型戰略將於三月份發布，這確實意味著存在一些差距。因此，推動組織前進的文化問題就不那麼大了，但要確保組織充分認識到我們在目標和利潤上加倍努力，而不是兩者兼而有之。

And our ability to be able to tell that through the energy transition strategy will be an important part, while holding absolutely true to the capital allocation and the Capital Markets Day messages because that is going to underpin how we go from here. Sinead.

我們能夠通過能源轉型戰略來判斷這一點的能力將是一個重要組成部分，同時絕對忠實於資本配置和資本市場日信息，因為這將支撐我們今後的發展方向。西尼德.

Yes. Thanks, Lydia. And glad you like the extra disclosures. What we're seeing here, so 2 parts to your question really was why are we seeing the costs going up in certain parts of the business? And is it due to cultural change? So on the first bit in terms of why we're seeing the costs going up. It's very much just the differences of the underlying businesses.

是的。謝謝，莉迪亞。很高興您喜歡額外的披露。我們在這裡看到的，所以你的問題的兩個部分實際上是為什麼我們看到業務的某些部分的成本上升？這是由於文化變遷嗎？首先，我們會看到成本上升的原因。這很大程度上只是基礎業務的差異。

So what you tend to see is, at the moment, what we're seeing is for the marketing business as we go into driving season, you do see us spend more on advertising costs. So you see the marketing costs going up as well. With respect to our Chemicals and Products business, what we've got there is twofold: one is, specifically, we, of course, have some maintenance spend on Deer Park.

因此，目前您傾向於看到的是，當我們進入駕駛季節時，我們所看到的是營銷業務，您確實會看到我們在廣告成本上花費更多。所以你會看到營銷成本也在上升。就我們的化學品和產品業務而言，我們擁有雙重優勢：一是，具體而言，我們當然在鹿園有一些維護支出。

Of course, as you know, that went down with the fire. And then secondly, we've got some restoration work going on in South Africa around the refinery that we have there. So that's more D&R type costs. On top of that, of course, you're also seeing now Nature Energy and Volta, the 2 acquisitions that we did in Q1, both of which actually sits in our marketing business playing through.

當然，如你所知，那件事隨著火災而消失了。其次，我們在南非的煉油廠周圍正在進行一些修復工作。所以這是更多的 D&R 類型成本。當然，最重要的是，您現在還看到 Nature Energy 和 Volta，這是我們在第一季度進行的兩次收購，兩者實際上都在我們的營銷業務中發揮作用。

So that's part of the ramp-up that you're seeing there. So that explains a little bit the $300 million difference that you're seeing between Q1 and Q2. In terms of the cultural differences, I think the bit I would probably come back to is that in our Downstream business, there is -- parts of the business have the opportunity to, of course, use OpEx to generate more yield, more returns that are out there. And you see that particularly the example I just gave you, Lydia, in terms of driving season and more advertising costs. So those are the differences rather than anything particularly cultural, I would say.

這就是您所看到的增長的一部分。這在一定程度上解釋了第一季度和第二季度之間 3 億美元的差異。就文化差異而言，我認為我可能會回想的是，在我們的下游業務中，部分業務當然有機會利用運營支出來產生更多收益、更多回報，都在那裡。你看，特別是我剛才給你的例子，莉迪亞，在駕駛季節和更多的廣告費用方面。所以我想說，這些都是差異，而不是任何特別的文化差異。

The next question is from Biraj Borkhataria at RBC.

下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Biraj Borkhataria。

The first one is just Q2 specific, the gas realization in the Upstream was much weaker than I had modeled. If I look at your gas realizations over time, you tend to track within the middle of the peer group or slightly above, and this is well below what we've seen from your peers so far. So could you just walk me through why were there such a significant drop quarter-on-quarter and whether this is the sort of new normal relative to the benchmarks we can see out there?

第一個只是第二季度特定的，上游的天然氣實現比我建模的要弱得多。如果我隨著時間的推移觀察您的天然氣實現情況，您往往會在同行組的中間或稍高一些的範圍內進行追踪，而這遠遠低於我們迄今為止從您的同行那裡看到的情況。那麼，您能否向我介紹一下為什麼季度環比出現如此顯著的下降，以及相對於我們可以看到的基準而言，這是否是一種新常態？

And the second question is on LNG Canada. I believe you took a fairly sizable impairment this quarter. I was a little bit surprised by the timing because normally the major projects start up before the impairments come through. But could you just help me understand what's going on there and also the remaining book value of that project after the impairment?

第二個問題是關於加拿大液化天然氣公司的。我相信您本季度遭受了相當大的減值。我對這個時機有點驚訝，因為通常重大項目會在減值發生之前啟動。但是你能幫我了解一下那裡發生了什麼以及減值後該項目的剩餘賬面價值嗎？

Thanks. Biraj. Both then your...

謝謝。比拉吉。兩者然後你的...

Yes. Absolutely. Thank you. In terms of -- let me start with the second one first. So LNG Canada. So what occurred there it is largely LNG Canada, as you say, Biraj. And as you know, when we look at impairments, we look at it from the point of view, typically us, if it's around price. Any portfolio change and effectively, the third one is typically avoided accounting mechanics.

是的。絕對地。謝謝。就——讓我先從第二個開始。所以加拿大液化天然氣公司。正如您所說，Biraj，那裡發生的事情主要是加拿大液化天然氣公司。如您所知，當我們考慮減值時，我們通常會從我們的角度來看待它，如果它與價格有關。任何投資組合的變化都有效，第三個通常是會計機制所避免的。

This one was in the accounting mechanics one, pure and simple, discount risk. So as you saw, risk-free rates changing, of course, that played into the WACC, and that's where we went up 1%. That's where it played in on this asset. And of course, when you look at this asset, you look at it across 3 elements again.

這是會計機制中的一項，純粹而簡單，貼現風險。正如您所看到的，無風險利率的變化當然影響了 WACC，這就是我們上漲 1% 的地方。這就是它在該資產上發揮作用的地方。當然，當您查看此資產時，您會再次查看 3 個元素。

Again, it's your Upstream, which we have good confidence in. As you know, a large part of the gas that's coming from this is coming for us from our own assets, Groundbirch and otherwise. It's the midstream, which is an infrastructure play, not surprising that you would see on an infrastructure play with the rising interest rates that you would have an impact.

再說一遍，這是你們的上游，我們對此充滿信心。如您所知，來自此的大部分天然氣來自我們自己的資產，Groundbirch 和其他資產。這是中游，即基礎設施投資，毫不奇怪，您會看到基礎設施投資隨著利率上升而產生影響。

And the third one is trading and optimization. Of course, under IFRS, we don't put trading and optimization in when we do the impairment. So that's the thinking around that. It's 40-year assets. This is the accounting mechanics that came across. I don't think I have too much concern around that. It will change over time as we play through. And of course, we're continuing derisk it.

第三個是交易和優化。當然，根據國際財務報告準則，我們在進行減值時並沒有考慮交易和優化。這就是圍繞這個問題的想法。這是40年的資產。這就是遇到的會計機制。我不認為我對此有太多擔憂。當我們玩的時候，它會隨著時間的推移而改變。當然，我們將繼續消除這種風險。

The other one, I think, Biraj, just to -- I find quite useful when I look at it as well, it is sizable, as you say, but we've got depreciation of some $5 billion to $6 billion typically a quarter in Shell, and this is by -- the equivalent of about 1 month of that. So it just helps me put it into context as we run through an asset of that long of 40 years. In terms of your second one -- or your first one actually, which was around gas realization, I think there was a couple of things in there.

另一個，我想，比拉吉，我發現它也非常有用，正如你所說，它相當大，但我們通常每季度都會貶值約 50 億至 60 億美元。殼牌，這相當於大約 1 個月的時間。因此，當我們回顧長達 40 年的資產時，它只是幫助我將其置於背景中。就你的第二個——或者實際上你的第一個——圍繞氣體實現而言，我認為其中有幾件事。

Obviously, the weaker EU gas market, you alluded to that as well. drop of some 33%, of course, in EU TTF. But also, we had a bit of a change in some parts of the portfolio where we went from term deals to spot deals, and that did play out here. And then the final part that's really there is, of course, with the closure of the Groningen field, we're beginning to see lower volumes coming through and also then the weighting changes to other parts of the portfolio. That is why you saw lower gas realization coming through in the second quarter. I hope that helps.

顯然，您也提到了歐盟天然氣市場的疲軟。當然，歐盟 TTF 下降了約 33%。而且，我們對投資組合的某些部分進行了一些改變，從定期交易轉向現貨交易，這確實在這裡發揮了作用。當然，最後一部分是真正存在的，隨著格羅寧根油田的關閉，我們開始看到產量下降，然後投資組合其他部分的權重也發生變化。這就是為什麼您在第二季度看到天然氣實現量較低的原因。我希望這有幫助。

The next question is from Peter Low at Redburn.

下一個問題來自 Redburn 的 Peter Low。

Just quite a quick one. So you've lowered the cash CapEx range slightly for the year. Can you kind of give some color as to what's driving that? And then also you kind of touched on kind of your efforts to reduce operating costs within the business, but can you comment at all just on the kind of the wider cost environment that you're seeing out there and whether you're still seeing kind of inflationary pressures come through?

只是相當快的一個。因此，您略微降低了今年的現金資本支出範圍。您能透露一下是什麼推動了這一趨勢嗎？然後，您還談到了為降低業務內部運營成本所做的努力，但是您能否對您所看到的更廣泛的成本環境以及您是否仍然看到這種環境發表評論？通脹壓力來得及嗎？

Let me start with the second one, I'll come back to you, Sinead, for the first one. Inflationary pressure continues, Peter. Of course, what we see at the moment is it's anywhere between 5% to 10%. And I'm talking here very generically and averaging, which is always risky. And we are able to absorb around half of that, so potentially getting down to the 5% or so. And using our scale, our enterprise framework agreements to be able to manage the other half.

讓我從第二個開始，我會回到你身邊，西尼德，關於第一個。通脹壓力仍在持續，彼得。當然，我們目前看到的數字在 5% 到 10% 之間。我在這裡談論的是非常籠統和平均的，這總是有風險的。我們能夠吸收其中的大約一半，因此有可能降至 5% 左右。並利用我們的規模、我們的企業框架協議能夠管理另一半。

What you see is it's a mixed picture at the moment. So you still have inflationary pressures on things like industrial gases, energy costs, any high-voltage equipment. So transformers, for example, what was a 12-month lead time is now taking 36 months. Those are the sorts of things where we continue to see the pressures.

你看到的是目前情況好壞參半。因此，工業氣體、能源成本和任何高壓設備等方面仍然面臨通脹壓力。以變形金剛為例，原本需要 12 個月的交付週期現在需要 36 個月。這些都是我們繼續面臨壓力的事情。

If you flip to the other side, steel prices are down. That helps, of course, there's other elements that we also see downward pressure on. So by and large, there's a handful of categories that we are really trying to manage carefully.

如果你翻到另一邊，鋼材價格就會下跌。當然，這有幫助，我們也看到其他因素面臨下行壓力。總的來說，我們確實在努力謹慎管理一些類別。

Indeed and cash CapEx, Peter. You're right, we brought it down from the $27 billion on the top to $26 billion. So the range of $23 billion to $26 billion for this year. If you look at the context of where we are, we have spent around about $12 billion for the first half of the year so far. So that gives you a bit of a feel.

事實上，還有現金資本支出，彼得。你說得對，我們把它從最高的 270 億美元降低到了 260 億美元。因此，今年的金額範圍為 230 億至 260 億美元。如果你看看我們目前的情況，我們今年上半年的支出約為 120 億美元。所以這會給你一點感覺。

Of course, what we did coming out of Capital Markets Day, we were in the process of doing so with taking the same framework that we use there. So where do we want to spend our money. So a lot of that discipline is really showing through now. So you're seeing us be able to reduce down for this year as well.

當然，我們在資本市場日所做的事情，我們正在這樣做，並採用了我們在那裡使用的相同框架。那麼我們想把錢花在哪裡呢？因此，現在確實體現了很多這種紀律。所以你會看到我們今年也能夠減少開支。

The next question is from Roger Read at Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的羅傑·里德。

Yes. Just a couple of questions for you. It's been some news during the last month or so since the Investor Day kind of talking about Shell looking at certain businesses that it might be more interested in exiting. And I was just wondering, while as you look at it, what are the decisions to exit a business as simple as the returns you see that you're generating right now? Or are there some strategy things we should be paying attention to as well?

是的。只是想問你幾個問題。自投資者日以來，上個月左右一直有一些消息稱殼牌正在考慮某些業務，表明它可能更有興趣退出。我只是想知道，當你看到它時，退出一家企業的決定是什麼，就像你現在看到的回報一樣簡單？或者我們還應該注意一些策略方面的事情嗎？

Super. Okay. Thanks for the question, Roger. I don't know specifically what examples you're referencing, but let me sort of broaden, maybe, the response. I think what we try to bring across in Capital Markets Day is that this is going to be a management team that is absolutely committed to delivering more value with less emissions.

極好的。好的。謝謝你的提問，羅傑。我不知道您具體引用了哪些示例，但也許讓我擴大一下響應範圍。我認為我們在資本市場日試圖傳達的信息是，這將是一個絕對致力於以更少的排放創造更多價值的管理團隊。

And so at the core of the choices we are making, we are looking at indeed value. And you can use returns as a good proxy for that as well as how we could potentially contribute to lowering the emissions of the portfolio, either on our Scope 1 and 2 or potentially investing to support Scope 3 reductions. And so that's a bit of the frame we use.

因此，我們所做選擇的核心是真正的價值。您可以使用回報作為一個很好的指標，以及我們如何可能為降低投資組合的排放做出貢獻，無論是在我們的範圍 1 和 2 中，還是可能進行投資以支持範圍 3 的減排。這就是我們使用的框架的一部分。

What we have done, if I just sort of play out some of the choices we've made, take the recent sale, for example, or the announced sale this week of the Masela Block in Indonesia for up to $650 million, an asset we have been in for a while, and we had made the decision to get out of that asset. It's an LNG -- potential LNG asset.

我們所做的，如果我只是簡單地闡述一下我們所做的一些選擇，以最近的出售為例，或者本周宣布以高達 6.5 億美元的價格出售印度尼西亞的 Masela 區塊，這是我們的一項資產已經有一段時間了，我們已經決定退出該資產。這是一種液化天然氣——潛在的液化天然氣資產。

But we didn't feel that it would compete with some of the other capital choices that we had in the portfolio. And so we've made a very concrete decision on that one. Of course, in Capital Markets Day, we also announced things like the review of the assets in Singapore. We announced the sale of the Shell Pakistan asset.

但我們認為它不會與我們投資組合中的其他一些資​​本選擇競爭。因此，我們對此做出了一項非常具體的決定。當然，在資本市場日，我們也宣布了新加坡資產審查之類的事情。我們宣佈出售殼牌巴基斯坦資產。

Those were much more in the context of really high-grading the overall returns of the portfolio. And both of those assets were not contributing in the way that we would like from a capital -- the productivity of the capital employed there. Other considerations for us will tend to be carbon, the carbon footprint of the assets will indeed tend to be like in our marketing business.

這些更多是在真正高評級投資組合的整體回報的背景下。而這兩項資產並沒有以我們希望的資本方式——即那裡所使用的資本的生產力——做出貢獻。我們的其他考慮因素往往是碳，資產的碳足跡確實會像我們的營銷業務一樣。

Is it a tail or is it a core part of the portfolio? And as we do that across the portfolio, we're looking to just really go after the quality of the asset base that we have. High grade the quality of the asset base, be disciplined in the way we allocate new capital and over time, therefore, start to build a sort of competitive return that we would expect out of this business. Thank you for the question.

它是尾部還是投資組合的核心部分？當我們在整個投資組合中這樣做時，我們希望真正追求我們擁有的資產基礎的質量。高質量的資產基礎，嚴格分配新資本的方式，因此，隨著時間的推移，開始建立我們期望從這項業務中獲得的有競爭力的回報。感謝你的提問。

The next question is from Henri Patricot UBS.

下一個問題來自亨利·帕特里克·瑞銀。

Two questions, please. So the first one, following up on that topic of disposals, there have some reports recently that you could be considering selling a stake in the Renewable Power business. I was wondering if you can comment on that, whether that's something that you'd be considering in (inaudible) implication in terms of the timing, size of disposals in renewables that you mentioned last month?

請教兩個問題。因此，第一個是關於處置主題的後續報導，最近有一些報導稱您可能正在考慮出售可再生能源業務的股份。我想知道您是否可以對此發表評論，您是否會考慮（聽不清）暗示您上個月提到的可再生能源處置的時間和規模？

And then secondly, just on the European gas market. We're seeing quite a bit of volatility in gas price at the moment. It looks like from a European gas storage situation, we should be full before the start of the winter. Can you give us perhaps your view on possible scenarios for the next the 3 to 6 months or you see the potential upside risk for European gas prices?

其次，就歐洲天然氣市場而言。目前我們看到天然氣價格出現相當大的波動。從歐洲儲氣情況來看，入冬前應該就已經滿了。您能否告訴我們您對未來 3 至 6 個月可能出現的情況的看法，或者您認為歐洲天然氣價格的潛在上行風險？

Sure. Thank you, Henri. I'll take the first one, if you want to take the second one, Sinead?

當然。謝謝你，亨利。我選第一個，如果你想選第二個，西妮德？

Sure.

當然。

On the media coverage of what we were looking at -- what we are looking at, look, if I go back to what we said in Capital Markets Day, we continue to believe that there is an opportunity space for us an integrated power that allows us to be able to achieve differentiated returns. But it's a limited space, right?

關於我們正在關注的媒體報導——我們正在關注的內容，如果我回到我們在資本市場日所說的話，我們仍然相信，我們有一個機會空間，一種綜合力量，可以讓我們能夠獲得差異化的回報。但空間有限，對嗎？

It's a space where we potentially have advantaged trading capabilities in that market. It's where we have a customer reach because we're not convinced that we have a differentiated capability in renewable generation. Having said that, we have a 40-gigawatt funnel of opportunities in the renewable generation space.

我們在這個市場上可能擁有優勢的交易能力。這是我們擁有客戶的地方，因為我們不相信我們在可再生能源發電方面擁有差異化的能力。話雖如此，我們在可再生能源發電領域擁有 40 吉瓦的機遇。

And so it's only natural that we would be looking to go after the market, not necessarily with -- let's sell this or do this, but really looking at how do we attract partners funding to be able to continue to high-grade the potential returns that we can get from this portfolio. And you would expect us, of course, to do that, just to make sure that if there are opportunities to attract lower cost capital, higher competence in operating something, then we should be looking at how we monetize that.

因此，我們很自然地會尋求追隨市場，不一定是——讓我們賣掉這個或這樣做，而是真正考慮我們如何吸引合作夥伴的資金，以便能夠繼續提高潛在回報我們可以從這個投資組合中得到。當然，你會期望我們這樣做，只是為了確保如果有機會吸引更低成本的資本、更高的運營能力，那麼我們應該考慮如何將其貨幣化。

No decisions taken. And we don't have a narrow lens on this. We are just really exploring what the potential options are so that we can follow through on our -- on what we have said we want to do. Sinead.

沒有做出任何決定。我們對此沒有狹隘的視角。我們只是在真正探索潛在的選擇，以便我們能夠貫徹我們所說的我們想做的事情。西尼德.

Indeed. And Henri, I think you're completely correct that there is certainly sufficient supply of LNG and pipe gas at the moment in Europe without a doubt. You're seeing certainly quite weak demand. And that's, of course, a combination of both weather at the moment and a reasonably slow ramp-up from China as well.

的確。亨利，我認為你完全正確，目前歐洲無疑有充足的液化天然氣和管道天然氣供應。您肯定會看到需求相當疲弱。當然，這是當前天氣和中國相當緩慢的增長的結合。

If it continues as it is, yes, I think Europe will be in a good position out of the summer. We're heading towards certainly -- hopefully towards 90% of storage full. But of course, it can play out very, very thinly. So it can go in many, many different directions. And particularly, we will watch very closely to see what China does because that thin balance could mean it changes very, very rapidly.

如果這種情況繼續下去，是的，我認為歐洲在夏季結束後將處於有利位置。我們肯定會朝著 90% 的存儲空間滿的方向前進。但當然，它可以發揮得非常非常薄弱。所以它可以朝很多很多不同的方向發展。特別是，我們將非常密切地關注中國的所作所為，因為這種微弱的平衡可能意味著它的變化非常非常迅速。

The next question is from Christyan Malek at JP Morgan Securities.

下一個問題來自摩根大通證券的克里斯蒂安·馬利克。

Just 2, if I may. First on just the recent German wind auction 7 gigawatts. I'm not too sure whether you participated or you didn't -- you lost, but we just had one of your competition talk about how solid the returns are and in terms of potentially elevated power prices and being able to optimize. I wonder, what is it about that project that you decided not to participate in?

如果可以的話，就 2 個。首先是最近德國風電拍賣的 7 吉瓦。我不太確定你是否參加了——你輸了，但我們剛剛讓你的一位競爭對手談論了回報是多麼可靠，以及潛在的電價上漲和優化能力。我想知道，你決定不參加的那個項目是因為什麼？

And how that sort of relates back to your agenda to be ruthless on returns, particularly as some of these big projects that are coming in without subsidies? That's my first question. And the second question is on Namibia. I know the flow rates are very strong and had lots of very good data points. But I wonder -- just talking to industry, I get the sense that it's not so clear how long these wells can flow for. So I wonder whether you can talk a bit about the efficacy in terms of just duration of these wells, given we know a lot more about sort the flow rates and how strong the potential is?

這與你對回報毫不留情的議程有什麼關係，特別是因為其中一些大型項目是在沒有補貼的情況下進行的？這是我的第一個問題。第二個問題是關於納米比亞的。我知道流量非常大並且有很多非常好的數據點。但我想知道——只要與業界交談，我就感覺到這些井能流多久還不太清楚。因此，我想知道您是否可以談談這些井的持續時間方面的功效，因為我們對流量排序以及潛力有多大了解更多？

Thank you, Christyan. I'll take both. I think on the first one, so on the German offshore wind, we did participate. We actually like that market. We have a strong trading position in that market. We have a very strong customer base in that market. So it was very natural for us to see that as one of the markets where if we could also get access to the green electrons, we could create real value. And we competed hard within the range that we had guided in Capital Markets Day within the 6% to 8%.

謝謝你，克里斯蒂安。我兩個都要。我認為在第一個方面，在德國海上風電方面，我們確實參與了。我們實際上喜歡那個市場。我們在該市場擁有強大的交易地位。我們在該市場擁有非常強大的客戶群。因此，我們很自然地看到，作為一個市場，如果我們也可以獲得綠色電子，我們就可以創造真正的價值。我們在資本市場日指導的 6% 到 8% 的範圍內進行了激烈的競爭。

But we lost. And we weren't willing to change our parameters around that. I can't speak for others. I think our focus was to make sure that we honor that return basis that we had committed to. And we couldn't even despite our ability to be able to leverage trading and our customer base, we just couldn't compete. And so I leave it to others to benefit from that opportunity.

但我們輸了。我們不願意改變我們的參數。我不能為別人說話。我認為我們的重點是確保我們遵守我們所承諾的回報基礎。儘管我們有能力利用交易和客戶群，但我們無法競爭。所以我把這個機會留給其他人來受益。

On Namibia, I think just stepping back, I mean Namibia for us continues to be a fantastic opportunity because it plays into the strength of our portfolio in deepwater, in particular, the Atlantic margin portfolio. Brazil, Gulf of Mexico, Nigeria and this is in another sweet spot for us to be able to leverage our capability.

關於納米比亞，我認為退一步來說，納米比亞對我們來說仍然是一個絕佳的機會，因為它發揮了我們在深水領域投資組合的優勢，特別是大西洋保證金投資組合。巴西、墨西哥灣、尼日利亞，這是我們能夠發揮我們能力的另一個最佳地點。

And here, in particular, a shoutout to the team that we have in our drilling organization, they are drilling wells safely faster and cheaper than any other competitor can do in the deepwater space. And that gives us a real advantage as we go into Namibia. We've already drilled 4 exploration wells and 1 appraised well in a very short period. I mean this is a different pace of Shell than I think you have seen in the past.

在這裡，特別要向我們鑽井組織中的團隊表示感謝，他們比任何其他競爭對手在深水空間安全地鑽井更快、更便宜。當我們進入納米比亞時，這給我們帶來了真正的優勢。我們已經在很短的時間內鑽探了4口勘探井和1口評價井。我的意思是，殼牌的步伐與我認為您過去看到的有所不同。

And it plays to that culture of performance, discipline and simplification that we're trying to drive. What we see right now is encouraging, including all the data I talked about, including the flow test that we did in May, which produced. What we need to make sure is this is a big area. We need to continue to derisk it.

它符合我們試圖推動的績效、紀律和簡化文化。我們現在看到的令人鼓舞，包括我談到的所有數據，包括我們在五月份所做的流量測試，它產生了。我們需要確定的是這是一個很大的區域。我們需要繼續消除風險。

And even if the volumes are there, I think to your point, we just need to see how the subsurface is behaving in different parts of the field to make sure we understand the porosities and permeabilities. And so that we can make -- we can assure ourselves that any development there, if we so proceed with one, is of an economic attractiveness that is meeting our thresholds and our expectations.

即使體積存在，我認為就你的觀點而言，我們只需要看看地下在油田不同部分的表現如何，以確保我們了解孔隙度和滲透率。這樣我們就可以——我們可以向自己保證，那裡的任何開發，如果我們繼續進行的話，都具有符合我們的門檻和期望的經濟吸引力。

More to come on that in the coming months as we derisk it further. But of course, we have a lot of knowledge from many other parts of our deporter portfolio that -- trust me, we are putting it all into Namibia to make sure that we are in a position to get to that determination soon.

隨著我們進一步降低風險，未來幾個月還會有更多這樣的事情發生。當然，我們從驅逐者組合的許多其他部分獲得了很多知識——相信我，我們正在將所有知識投入納米比亞，以確保我們能夠很快做出這一決定。

The next question is from Martijn Rats at Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Martijn Rats。

I have 2. I wanted to ask you about the balance sheet gearing because at the Capital Markets Day, I think there was a comment about targeting to pursue a AA credit rating. And given that it's only sort of 6 weeks since, as Lydia pointed out, we're now $0.5 billion of incremental share buybacks. And I was wondering how that jives with the target to get to AA?

我有 2. 我想問你關於資產負債表槓桿的問題，因為在資本市場日，我認為有一個關於目標追求 AA 信用評級的評論。正如 Lydia 指出的那樣，考慮到距離現在才 6 週，我們現在已經進行了 5 億美元的增量股票回購。我想知道這與達到 AA 的目標是否相符？

It sort of at least raises the question that might not be quite such a priority. But if that is not quite such a priority and that has forward-looking implications, then maybe -- well, maybe more of the free cash flows can be made available for distribution, if less of the free cash flows need to be used to pursue that credit rating upgrade.

它至少提出了一個可能不那麼優先的問題。但如果這不是一個優先事項並且具有前瞻性影響，那麼也許——好吧，也許更多的自由現金流可以用於分配，如果需要使用更少的自由現金流來追求信用評級升級。

So in that sense, actually, the sort of targeted level of balance sheet gearing is quite an important one. And I was wondering if you could say a few words about that. Is the balance sheet already actually broadly fine for the long run at this level of gearing? And the second question I briefly wanted to ask as a follow-up on Biraj's question about LNG Canada.

因此，從這個意義上說，實際上，資產負債表負債率的目標水平是相當重要的。我想知道你能否就此說幾句話。從長期來看，在這個槓桿水平下，資產負債表實際上已經大致良好了嗎？我想簡單問的第二個問題是比拉吉關於加拿大液化天然氣公司問題的後續問題。

I can see if the discount rate changes, then, of course, the net present value of the project sort of diminishes. But the reason why we have higher interest rates is that also the inflation outlook has changed. And given that many commodity prices are effectively real assets, you can reasonably expect that we have higher inflation that, of course, also future prices -- future commodity prices should be higher.

我可以看到如果貼現率發生變化，那麼項目的淨現值當然會減少。但我們利率上升的原因是通脹前景也發生了變化。鑑於許多商品價格實際上是實物資產，您可以合理地預期我們的通貨膨脹率會更高，當然，未來的價格也會更高——未來的商品價格應該會更高。

And in that sense, I would have expected and even if you sort of changed the discount rate, you might have changed your price expectations and the impairment might not be necessary. Has this also fed through your sort of updated model for the project? Or is it -- or has that not been done? Because frankly, the LNG price outlook looks different from -- also looks different from the moment when the project was self ID-ed?

從這個意義上說，我預計，即使你改變了貼現率，你也可能改變了你的價格預期，並且可能沒有必要進行減值。這是否也反映在您的項目更新模型中？或者是——或者還沒有這樣做？因為坦率地說，液化天然氣價格前景看起來與項目自我識別時的情況有所不同？

Martijn, thank you for those 2 questions, which I'll pass on to Sinead.

Martijn，謝謝你提出的兩個問題，我會將其轉達給 Sinead。

Super. And really good questions Martijn on the second one because I'll just take it quickly. Actually, what you see is when we do the impairments, we don't include much of the T&O so the trading optimization value in there. So you're very on point about prices and how that flows through. There's only a very small part of it that actually gets updated into the actual model.

極好的。關於第二個問題，Martijn 提出了很好的問題，因為我會盡快回答。實際上，您看到的是，當我們進行減值時，我們並沒有包含太多的 T&O，因此其中包含交易優化價值。所以你對價格及其流動方式的看法非常正確。其中只有很小一部分實際上被更新到實際模型中。

So you're seeing much heavier weight on the discount rate than you are actually on the optimization that we can do through moving cargos to different places. So that explains -- but yes, you're spot on. There is a bit of a difference there. The first one was around the balance sheet. And really, where we are there. As you say, we have reduced in terms of the gearing, we've reduced the debt piled on considerably over the period.

因此，您會發現折扣率的權重比我們通過將貨物轉移到不同地方所進行的優化實際上要重得多。這就解釋了——但是，是的，你說得對。那裡有一點不同。第一個是圍繞資產負債表。確實，我們在那裡。正如你所說，我們減少了負債率，大幅減少了在此期間積累的債務。

We've had a very good quarter, as you know, in terms of cash generation. And really where my thinking goes through on this is simply it's less around the metrics. It's more about thinking about how can I allocate the cash at the end of the day. So in a stronger quarter or a good quarter from a cash point of view, I'll take that opportunity to reward both shareholders and to strengthen the balance sheet.

如您所知，就現金生成而言，我們度過了一個非常好的季度。事實上，我對此的思考只是不太圍繞指標。更多的是思考我最終如何分配現金。因此，從現金角度來看，在一個更強勁的季度或一個好的季度，我將利用這個機會獎勵股東並加強資產負債表。

And that's what you tend to see. So in this case, you saw both happening. So you saw it hitting in terms of bringing us down to just over $40 billion. And you also saw us being able to reward shareholders with some $3 billion in terms of the buyback. In terms of -- we'll have different quarters. We'll have different ones where we are higher on maintenance, where we have much more significant working capital moves, whether that's outflows or whatever.

這就是你經常看到的。所以在這個例子中，你看到了這兩種情況的發生。所以你看到它使我們的美元跌至略高於 400 億美元。您還看到我們能夠通過回購來獎勵股東約 30 億美元。就我們而言，我們將有不同的宿舍。我們將有不同的情況，我們的維護程度更高，我們的營運資金變動更大，無論是流出還是其他什麼。

And in that side of things, you'll see us -- you see my thinking will be much more about -- how do I say this? How do I make sure that I actually reward the shareholders at the same time. So you'll probably see me lean more on the balance sheet at that point in time. But directionally, for your question, do I want to go further on the balance sheet? Yes, directionally a little bit more in terms of there, but it's not significant in my mind, given how far we've come so far. I hope that helps Martijn.

在事情的這一方面，你會看到我們 - 你會看到我的想法會更多 - 我該怎麼說？我如何確保我同時真正回報股東。所以你可能會看到我在那個時間點更多地依賴資產負債表。但從方向上來說，對於你的問題，我想在資產負債表上進一步了解嗎？是的，在這方面有更多的方向性，但考慮到我們到目前為止已經走了多遠，這在我看來並不重要。我希望這對馬丁有幫助。

The next question is from Christopher Kuplent at Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的克里斯托弗·庫普倫特。

I think I've got 2 questions. And the first one, I apologize just shows you how simplistic my brain works. But if you add up the cost of your dividend, the buybacks that we now know across at least 3 quarters plus the 2.5 floor for the fourth, is that a way of -- I accept simplistic and stupidly gauging at the high end of your 40% payout ratio. Your view of CFFO this year?

我想我有兩個問題。第一個，我很抱歉，這只是向你展示了我的大腦是多麼簡單化。但如果你把股息成本加起來，我們現在知道至少三個季度的回購加上第四個季度的 2.5 下限，這就是一種方式——我接受在 40 的高端進行簡單而愚蠢的衡量% 支付率。您對今年CFFO有何看法？

Just trying to really, without wanting to be stupid, getting to your definition of, hey, this is my through the cycle payout ratio because the number that I get to is not low in terms of the implied CFFO. Question number one. Question number two, following on from the net debt comments just now. These are round numbers. And I do like them $65 billion was the target not so long ago.

只是試圖真正地，不想變得愚蠢，得到你的定義，嘿，這是我的整個週期支付率，因為就隱含的 CFFO 而言，我得到的數字並不低。第一個問題。第二個問題，是繼剛才的淨債務評論之後提出的。這些是整數。我確實喜歡他們不久前的目標，即 650 億美元。

And that was tied to a 20% to 30% CFFO payout ratio. You're now at EUR $40 billion net debt. And you're happy with a 30% to 40% payout ratio. Is there a number for net debt? As you just said, you'd like to see that go down further, where you would then be prepared to further increase the CFFO payout commitment. That's it.

這與 20% 至 30% 的 CFFO 派息率相關。您現在的淨債務為 400 億歐元。您對 30% 到 40% 的支付率感到滿意。有淨債務數字嗎？正如您剛才所說，您希望看到這一數字進一步下降，然後您將準備進一步增加 CFFO 支付承諾。就是這樣。

Thank you, Chris. Both to you.

謝謝你，克里斯。兩者都給你。

I know. And Chris as usual, they are far from stupid questions as you well know. On the first one, you're correct. When you start adding it up, where are we sitting? We are sitting towards the high end, you're correct. Indeed, so I will be -- at the moment, we're looking at over the year, where will we be? It will all be above 35%. That's very clear. You can see that. And in terms of this quarter, we're sitting at some 38%.

我知道。克里斯和往常一樣，這些問題遠非你所知的愚蠢問題。對於第一點，你是對的。當你開始加起來時，我們坐在哪裡？我們坐在高端，你是對的。事實上，我會​​——目前，我們正在展望這一年，我們會在哪裡？都會在35%以上。這非常清楚。你可以看到這一點。就本季度而言，我們的比例約為 38%。

So you can see the high views on that. So that gives you a view of certainly the strength of -- our perception of the strength of the cash flow from the underlying business is correct. I would say, though, the other thing I would comment on is I said this a few times, I don't just look at it quarter-on-quarter. You're right. I do look at it across the year. I also look at it beyond that.

所以你可以看到對此的高度評價。因此，這讓您對我們對基礎業務現金流實力的看法是正確的。不過，我要說的是，我要評論的另一件事是我說過幾次，我不只是逐季度地看待它。你說得對。我確實全年都在關注它。除此之外，我也著眼於它。

So it's about the future cash flows of the business as well. So it's not quite as narrowly just calculation I'm doing literally quarter-by-quarter, although I do watch those metrics very carefully. In terms of the second one in terms of net debt, I smile because you're trying to draw me into, am I going to reset CFFO distributions or anything like that, which I'm not, Chris, as you can imagine.

所以這也關係到企業的未來現金流。因此，儘管我確實非常仔細地觀察這些指標，但它並不是我逐季度進行的狹隘計算。就淨債務而言，我微笑是因為你試圖吸引我，我是否會重置CFFO分配或類似的東西，我不是，克里斯，正如你可以想像的那樣。

But you're correct that we have brought down the debt considerably. We've managed to strengthen the balance sheet as a result of that and be able to push more towards our shareholders. Now I'll say it again, the quarter has moved. So this is about us. We're investing over, of course, years upon years in cases of decades.

但你說得對，我們已經大幅減少了債務。因此，我們成功地加強了資產負債表，並能夠向股東提供更多利益。現在我再說一遍，季度已經移動了。這是關於我們的。當然，我們的投資年復一年，甚至數十年。

So we're trying to be very pragmatic in the view as to how we do this. And I will lean on the balance sheet from time to time to ensure that I can reward shareholders in a pragmatic manner as well. So I won't go further than that to be drawn into what happens if my debt goes down lower and whether I would increase. But thank you for the question.

因此，我們在如何做到這一點上嘗試非常務實。我會不時地依靠資產負債表，以確保我也能以務實的方式回報股東。因此，我不會進一步討論如果我的債務減少會發生什麼以及我是否會增加。但謝謝你的提問。

The next question is from Kim Fustier at HSBC.

下一個問題來自匯豐銀行的 Kim Fustier。

Firstly, could you talk about how a higher interest rate environment affects you in general, but particularly in renewables? Are you looking for higher target returns in order to maintain a decent spread over WACC? I know you talked about a 6% to 8% target unlevered return in renewables, but don't risk free rates of 5% or 6% made that look a little bit too low?

首先，您能否談談較高的利率環境對您有何影響，特別是在可再生能源領域？您是否正在尋求更高的目標回報以維持相對於 WACC 的合理利差？我知道您談到了可再生能源的 6% 至 8% 的無槓桿回報目標，但是 5% 或 6% 的無風險利率難道不會讓這個看起來有點太低了嗎？

My second question is on Integrated Gas. Beyond the seasonality effect that you've already outlined, how do we think about a new normal for LNG marketing and trading profits? I think at the CMD, you said the business makes money broadly speaking from 3 things: product that spreads and volatility and that it was unlikely that all 3 would be lower at the same time.

我的第二個問題是關於綜合天然氣的。除了您已經概述的季節性影響之外，我們如何看待液化天然氣營銷和貿易利潤的新常態？我認為在 CMD，您說該業務從廣義上講從三件事中賺錢：利差和波動性的產品，並且這三者不太可能同時下降。

But it seems to me that, that's pretty much where we are today, pricing is slightly lower and volatility is also a lot lower than last year, I mean, despite some doubts of volatility. So any help around that would be great.

但在我看來，這幾乎就是我們今天的處境，定價略低，波動性也比去年低很多，我的意思是，儘管對波動性存在一些疑問。因此，任何有關這方面的幫助都會很棒。

You want to take both?

你想兩者都拿嗎？

Sure. In terms of -- I'll start with the second one, actually, Kim, so thank you for that. In terms of LNG, what we saw is -- the way I tend to look at the LNG market, as you say, is very much around seasonality, is around the price, it's around volatility, but I can look at it in a different manner as well, which is really by access to the volumes that we've got coming through.

當然。實際上，我將從第二個開始，金，所以謝謝你。就液化天然氣而言，我們看到的是——正如你所說，我傾向於看待液化天然氣市場的方式很大程度上取決於季節性、價格、波動性，但我可以從不同的角度來看待它方式也是如此，這實際上是通過訪問我們已經閱讀過的書籍來實現的。

And then the opportunity for what we do with it, which is very much the same way we're talking about. IG had a great quarter. And to be frank, in terms of good operations, it was good. Volumes coming through. But it was about seasonality. So what we have said before is that we're very much focused on Northern hemisphere. So we're very much set up for Q1 and Q4. So you see a split into that manner.

然後是我們用它做的事情的機會，這與我們正在談論的方式非常相似。 IG 這個季度表現出色。坦白說，就良好的運營而言，這很好。大量的數據通過。但這與季節性有關。所以我們之前說過，我們非常關注北半球。因此，我們已經為第一季度和第四季度做好了充分準備。所以你會看到這種分裂。

That means that we have much less length in Q2 and Q3. So if you were to look back at the previous year, you see pretty much the same thing coming through. So yes, price wasn't there, volatility wasn't there, but we didn't have the length anyway to take advantage of that. We had exactly what we would expect to have coming through in this quarter.

這意味著 Q2 和 Q3 的長度要少得多。因此，如果你回顧過去的一年，你會發現幾乎同樣的事情發生。所以，是的，價格不存在，波動性也不存在，但我們無論如何都沒有足夠的時間來利用這一點。我們在本季度的表現完全符合我們的預期。

And of course, what you see next quarter is very much we have, as Wael alluded to, we have quite a bit of maintenance coming through in terms of our outlook. So you can see it in there, very much around Trinidad and Tobago and also, of course, Prelude. So you'll see some of the access to molecules coming out.

當然，你在下個季度看到的就是我們所擁有的，正如韋爾提到的，就我們的前景而言，我們需要進行相當多的維護。所以你可以在那裡看到它，在特立尼達和多巴哥周圍，當然還有 Prelude。所以你會看到一些分子的獲取途徑出來了。

In terms of the first one, in terms of higher interest rates and returns. 68%, it really is around the Power side, as we've talked about before. We're very much looking at the integrated value. So you're right. Those interest rates, although they do make it -- they're actually influencing quite interestingly in terms of the attractive opportunities on acquisitions and also you do see that coming through, but we do think about it long term as well.

就第一個而言，就更高的利率和回報而言。 68%，這確實是在電源方面，正如我們之前討論過的。我們非常關注綜合價值。所以你是對的。這些利率，儘管它們確實實現了——它們實際上對收購的有吸引力的機會產生了非常有趣的影響，而且你也確實看到了這一點，但我們也確實從長遠考慮。

For us, what we're looking at typically, when we're looking at any of these renewables player is about where can we do the uplift and where we actually make the money is round the trading and optimization, again. But it will be interesting to see how with this level of interest rate, the market actually plays, which I think is where you're going to, Kim. Just what do we see? Do we see actually a start to stagnate, do we see people with heavy borrowings start to have problems? So that's going to be an interesting one to watch.

對我們來說，當我們考慮任何可再生能源參與者時，我們通常關注的是我們可以在哪裡進行提升，以及我們真正在哪裡賺錢，再次是圍繞交易和優化。但看看在這樣的利率水平下，市場實際上如何運作將會很有趣，我認為這就是你要去的地方，Kim。我們看到了什麼？我們是否真的看到經濟開始停滯，是否看到負債累累的人開始出現問題？所以這將是一件值得一看的有趣的事情。

The next question is from Lucas Herrmann at BNP Paribas.

下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行的盧卡斯·赫爾曼 (Lucas Herrmann)。

Two if I might. I just wanted to go back to Peter Low's question on gas price, which I don't think you answered the second part of it, which was in essence, when we look at European prices, what we're seeing or is what we saw through the second quarter, a representation of change. So should we be expecting something near $4, $5, et cetera, rather than the numbers that we would have seen historically?

如果可以的話，兩個。我只是想回到彼得·洛（Peter Low）關於天然氣價格的問題，我認為您沒有回答第二部分，這本質上是，當我們查看歐洲價格時，我們所看到的或者是我們所看到的通過第二季度，出現了變化。那麼我們是否應該期待接近 4 美元、5 美元等的價格，而不是我們歷史上看到的數字？

I also am not quite sure how pricing could be that is quite as low as it is. And the second question, I guess, stays with gas as well. Sinead, last year, big build in working capital into the third quarter as you put gas into storage looking towards the winter season. Should we be expecting something similar this quarter? Can you give us any indications as to how we should be thinking about working capital moves from the underlying business rather than necessarily price over the course of the Q3 period? That's it.

我也不太確定定價怎麼會這麼低。我想第二個問題也與天然氣有關。 Sinead，去年，隨著您將天然氣儲存起來以迎接冬季，第三季度營運資金大幅增加。我們是否應該期待本季度出現類似的情況？您能否給我們一些指示，說明我們應該如何考慮第三季度期間基礎業務的營運資金轉移，而不是價格？就是這樣。

Thanks, Lucas. I'll take the first one and let you take the second one, Sinead. Lucas, on the first one, so a couple of dynamics playing at the moment. If I start with the demand side, firstly, what we see in China, maybe start there, is softer demand than what we had anticipated coming out of the pandemic, in particular in industry.

謝謝，盧卡斯。我拿第一個，讓你拿第二個，Sinead。盧卡斯，關於第一個，所以現在有一些動態正在發揮。如果我從需求方面開始，首先，我們在中國看到的，也許從那裡開始，需求比我們預期的大流行後的需求要疲軟，特別是在工業領域。

On the mobility side, actually, we see strength. So we see quite a bit of activity in our marketing business in China. We see it on aviation, but we don't yet see it in industry, in particular, export-oriented industry. And so that means there isn't the same yet amount of pull, though there are signals that it is improving slowly. You add to that to the fact that your storage levels in North Asia are high.

實際上，在移動性方面，我們看到了實力。因此，我們在中國的營銷業務中看到了相當多的活動。我們在航空領域看到了這一點，但在工業領域，特別是出口導向型行業，我們還沒有看到這一點。因此，這意味著拉力還沒有達到相同的水平，儘管有信號表明它正在緩慢改善。除此之外，北亞的存儲水平也很高。

Japan and Korea both have relatively high storage levels. And in Europe are high. It does mean that the gas price and the prompt is weak. You had a couple of wobbles over the last few months when there was questions around outages from the Norwegian pipelines and the like, but that was just noise and level back off.

日本和韓國的存儲水平都較高。而在歐洲則很高。這確實意味著天然氣價格和提示很弱。在過去的幾個月裡，當有人質疑挪威管道等的停運時，你遇到了一些不穩定的情況，但這只是噪音和水平回落。

That doesn't take away the reality that if you look a bit longer term into, in particular, going into this winter. And if you say come end of this year, if there is pressure on the storage levels because of it being a colder winter than anticipated or if you start to see a bit more buying by some of the more price-sensitive players like India and others, you can very quickly get into a tighter situation.

這並不能消除這樣一個現實：如果你把目光放得更長遠一些，特別是進入今年冬天。如果你說今年年底到來，如果由於冬季比預期更冷而導致存儲水平面臨壓力，或者你開始看到一些對價格敏感的參與者（例如印度和其他國家）的購買量有所增加，你很快就會陷入更緊張的境地。

How that plays out? There are just too many variables at this stage to be able to determine. And so I wouldn't want to give an indication of pricing other than to say, softer in the prompt and potentially stronger as you go into the medium term. Sinead?

結果如何？現階段有太多變量無法確定。因此，我不想透露定價信息，只是說，短期內會更加溫和，進入中期可能會更加強勁。西妮德？

And Lucas, in terms of the second part of your question, which is really around inventory, excluding price. What can we expect to see? On this one, I would look at it first much more intensive structural versus nonstructural. So what you see is coming through into sort of Q3, a little bit of build, particularly around some of the driving season aspects. So there is a bit of structural there.

盧卡斯，就你問題的第二部分而言，這實際上是關於庫存，不包括價格。我們可以期待看到什麼？在這一點上，我首先會更深入地研究結構性與非結構性。所以你看到的是第三季度的一些進展，特別是在一些駕駛季節方面。所以那裡有一些結構性的東西。

So you do see some come up because then that tails off into Q4 as we come out of that. In terms of the nonstructural side of things, it's really what you're alluding to in terms of the gas injection. So that -- very much last year when, of course, the market was tight and there was a real worry about a cold winter, we took quite a big opportunity to inject there.

所以你確實看到了一些問題的出現​​，因為當我們走出困境時，這種情況就會逐漸減少到第四季度。就事物的非結構方面而言，這實際上就是您在氣體注入方面所提到的內容。因此，去年，當然，市場緊張，人們真正擔心寒冷的冬天，我們抓住了一個很大的機會在那裡註入資金。

Given where the market is, I won't go into where I would speculate on the market and our strategy around that, but one could look at it now and say that there's not that much shortage in the market at the moment. But it will very much depend on what the opportunities are and what our views are in terms of the winter as it concludes same thing to say on oil supply to be perfectly frank, in terms of -- you hear a lot in the market about the risk of sort of limited capacity or spare capacity in terms of where OpEx is going with this cuts, et cetera.

考慮到市場的情況，我不會談論我對市場的猜測以及我們圍繞該市場的策略，但人們現在可以看看它並說目前市場並沒有那麼嚴重的短缺。但這在很大程度上取決於機會是什麼以及我們對冬季的看法，因為坦率地說，它對石油供應得出了同樣的結論，就——你在市場上聽到了很多關於石油供應的看法。就運營支出隨著此次削減等的去向而言，存在容量有限或閒置容量的風險。

In the same way we would look to take storage opportunities or options at that point, but that will depend on different things that will come through. So it's very much nonstructural.

以同樣的方式，我們會尋求當時的存儲機會或選擇，但這將取決於將要發生的不同事情。所以它非常非結構性。

The next question is from Henry Tarr at Berenberg.

下一個問題來自貝倫貝格的亨利·塔爾。

Two quick ones. One on LNG Canada, again, post the impairment. Does that have any implications for a second phase of that project or not really either from a returns perspective or anything else? And then secondly, could you give a quick update on Pennsylvania and the cracker? That would be great.

兩個快的。加拿大液化天然氣公司的一份報告再次公佈了減值。從回報的角度或其他方面來看，這對該項目的第二階段是否有任何影響？其次，您能否快速介紹一下賓夕法尼亞州和餅乾的最新情況？那太好了。

Okay. Happy to cover both. And Henry, I talked earlier about Pennsylvania, so maybe I'll just quickly connect that back up again. So on the Pennsylvania one, I tried to reference the strategic advantage of our cracker there. multiple dimension supply demand as well as the fiscal advantage. 2 of the 3, 4 ethylene trains up and running. The third one is has some technical issues, which we are working through and expect it to be up and running by the first quarter of next year.

好的。很高興涵蓋兩者。亨利，我之前談到了賓夕法尼亞州，所以也許我會很快再次連接起來。因此，在賓夕法尼亞州，我試圖引用我們那裡的破解者的戰略優勢。多維供給需求以及財政優勢。 3、4 條乙烯列車中的 2 條已啟動並運行。第三個是存在一些技術問題，我們正在解決這些問題，預計它將在明年第一季度啟動並運行。

LNG Canada, I'll use the same frame. LNG Canada continues to be an advantaged asset, a really advantaged asset. You have, in essence, a captive export scheme for Western Canadian gas. You have a demand -- a market -- the Asian market that is within proximity. And you have, in essence, the cleanest, most -- the lowest carbon intensity LNG out there in the market, all coming together at a good point in time for those volumes to -- all of which will be full flexibility portfolio volumes for us, something which we, of course, like a lot.

加拿大液化天然氣公司，我將使用相同的框架。加拿大液化天然氣公司仍然是一項優勢資產，一項真正的優勢資產。從本質上講，您擁有加拿大西部天然氣的自營出口計劃。你有一個需求——一個市場——附近的亞洲市場。從本質上講，您擁有市場上最清潔、最碳強度最低的液化天然氣，所有這些都在一個很好的時間點匯集在一起，以達到這些量，所有這些對我們來說都將是完全靈活的投資組合量，我們當然非常喜歡的東西。

All that coming together around middle of this year. That's a project that now is over 75% complete on the midstream, over 90% complete on the pipeline. So it's coming along nicely. All the major units are either at the plant or are on route to the plant. So knock on wood, all seem to be going well. Phase 2 is going to -- the impairment itself does not impact at all our view on Phase 2, back to all the reasons that Sinead explained around this being more driven by accounting.

所有這些都在今年年中左右匯集在一起。該項目目前中游已完成 75% 以上，管道中已完成 90% 以上。所以一切進展順利。所有主要裝置要么在工廠內，要么正在前往工廠的途中。所以敲木頭，一切似乎都很順利。第二階段將——減值本身不會影響我們對第二階段的看法，回到西尼德解釋的更多由會計驅動的所有原因。

And of course, while the asset itself is very attractive for us, a big part of the attraction is also the optimization opportunities that full flex LNG cargoes offers us in a portfolio like ours. And that doesn't change, of course. And so what we will do is we will wait for the joint venture to have put their best proposal forward. And with the other joint venture partners, we will assess it and make a decision at the time. Thank you for the question.

當然，雖然資產本身對我們非常有吸引力，但很大一部分吸引力還在於全靈活液化天然氣貨物在像我們這樣的投資組合中為我們提供了優化機會。當然，這不會改變。因此，我們要做的就是等待合資企業提出最好的建議。我們會和其他合資夥伴一起評估，然後再做出決定。感謝你的提問。

Today's final question is from Paul Cheng at Scotiabank.

今天的最後一個問題是豐業銀行的 Paul Cheng 提出的。

Two questions. First, I don't know whether it's fair (inaudible), but if you look at over the past 8 quarters, your Chemical operations loss money in 6 of them. We understand that you put Singapore up for review or maybe for sale. But other than that, I mean, is the rest of the portfolio is really performing according to your expectations or that we have some structural issue with the whole organization?

兩個問題。首先，我不知道這是否公平（聽不清），但如果你看看過去 8 個季度，你的化工業務有 6 個季度虧損。我們了解您將新加坡置於審查或出售狀態。但除此之外，我的意思是，投資組合的其餘部分是否真的按照您的預期表現，或者我們整個組織存在一些結構性問題？

And if they are some structural issue, what step then you are taking in order to make a (inaudible) on that? And secondly then there was a general article recently on -- about the offshore wind project seems to be struggling at least in the U.S. and including you and some of your competitors, may be going back and trying to renegotiate on the prices. So maybe there you can give us some idea then, I mean, how you look at the offshore wind in that market? Is it still considered as a reasonable market for you or meeting your criteria (inaudible)?

如果它們是一些結構性問題，那麼您將採取什麼步驟來解決這個問題（聽不清）？其次，最近有一篇關於海上風電項目似乎至少在美國陷入困境的一般性文章，包括您和您的一些競爭對手，可能會回去並嘗試重新談判價格。那麼也許您可以給我們一些想法，我的意思是，您如何看待該市場的海上風電？對於您來說，它仍然被認為是一個合理的市場或符合您的標準（聽不清）嗎？

Thank you, Paul. Do you want to take the second question first, I'll come back to the first.

謝謝你，保羅。你想先回答第二個問題嗎？我再​​回到第一個問題。

Sure. I think, Paul, offshore wind is a tough market without a doubt. And it's always been tough. And of course, you've got inflationary pressures. You've got a multitude of issues going through there at the same time. A lot of people are, as you say, looking at trying to renegotiate, looking at the terms and conditions there. And of course, we're no different than anyone else.

當然。保羅，我認為海上風電無疑是一個艱難的市場。而且一直都很艱難。當然，還有通脹壓力。你會同時遇到很多問題。正如你所說，很多人正在考慮嘗試重新談判，研究那裡的條款和條件。當然，我們與其他人沒有什麼不同。

We look at their value, and that's very much what we brought back in Capital Markets Day, very much a focus on driving the right returns for the risk that we take and getting the value that's there. So indeed, we will continue to do that. I think the market has a lot of work to do in that space to look at actually ensuring the right returns are there.

我們著眼於它們的價值，這正是我們在資本市場日帶回來的，重點是為我們承擔的風險帶來正確的回報並獲得其中的價值。事實上，我們將繼續這樣做。我認為市場在這個領域還有很多工作要做，以確保獲得正確的回報。

Super. Thanks, Sinead. Let me let me take your first question there, Paul, and then look to wrap up. If I reflect on it from a capital employed perspective, half of the capital employed in our Chemicals business sits in Shell Polymers Monaca, the Pennsylvania plant. So the biggest thing we can do for that half of the capital employed is get the kit up and running and delivering at the premium levels that we needed to deliver so that we can achieve that $1 billion to $1.5 billion of EBITDA that we expect to get out of the facility.

極好的。謝謝，西妮德。保羅，讓我來回答你的第一個問題，然後結束。如果我從資本使用的角度思考，我們化學品業務使用的資本有一半位於賓夕法尼亞州殼牌聚合物莫納卡工廠。因此，對於所使用的一半資本，我們能做的最重要的事情就是讓套件啟動並運行，並以我們需要的優質水平提供服務，以便我們能夠實現我們預期獲得的 10 億至 15 億美元的 EBITDA離開設施。

And so all hands are on deck to make sure that we are ramping up, we are certifying the grades and moving forward. That's how we want to handle the 50%. Of course, it hurts from a returns profile when 50% of your capital employed is not yet productive to the extent that you want it. So that's a key urgency for us.

因此，所有人都齊心協力，確保我們正在進步，我們正在認證成績並繼續前進。這就是我們想要處理 50% 的方式。當然，當您所使用的 50% 的資本尚未達到您想要的生產力時，回報率就會受到影響。所以這對我們來說是當務之急。

You've touched on Singapore, I would also add our review asset by asset of Europe, where we could potentially high-grade the returns on those specific assets. The rest of the portfolio is in good shape, the other 30%. And so what we're trying to do is to move quickly to be able to address the start-up -- the healthy startup and sustainable start-up of Monaca of Pennsylvania to make sure that we move on the strategic reviews that are ongoing, and to continue to do what we can to be able to move further and further towards top quartile when it comes to operations.

您已經談到了新加坡，我還會逐一添加我們對歐洲資產的審查，我們可能會在歐洲對這些特定資產的回報進行高評級。投資組合的其餘部分（另外 30%）狀況良好。因此，我們正在努力做的是迅速採取行動，以解決初創企業問題——賓夕法尼亞州莫納卡的健康初創企業和可持續初創企業，以確保我們繼續進行正在進行的戰略審查，並繼續盡我們所能，在運營方面不斷邁向前四分之一。

So we're pulling every lever we can to give ourselves options to be able to really create value out of this portfolio. That's what I would say. I think just in closing, and I know you didn't ask this, Paul, but I think given we're at the midyear point, maybe just worth reflecting for a moment. I think firstly, thank you to all of you for the support over the last few weeks.

因此，我們正在竭盡全力為自己提供選擇，以便能夠真正從這個投資組合中創造價值。我就是這麼說的。我想最後，我知道你沒有問這個，保羅，但我認為考慮到我們正處於年中，也許值得反思一下。我想首先，感謝大家過去幾週的支持。

We have taken up quite a bit of your time. And I recognize between Capital Markets Day, the dinner and all that, you spent a lot of time on Shell. So thank you for that. I can tell you coming back into the organization, we're excited to move from framing the opportunity to now delivering it. And we have great opportunities.

我們佔用了您相當多的時間。我認識到，在資本市場日、晚宴和所有這些活動之間，您在殼牌上花了很多時間。非常感謝你的幫忙。我可以告訴你，回到組織後，我們很高興能夠從構建機會到現在交付機會。我們有很好的機會。

This management team, we spent a few days together last week, really focused on now how are we going to deliver these outcomes. How do we get performance discipline simplification to go to the next level in the organization? How do we frame more value, less emissions in the way we are making choices project by project? And how do we make sure we over deliver on the 6% free cash flow growth per annum to 2030 and the 10% free cash flow per share growth for 2025?

這個管理團隊，我們上週在一起度過了幾天，真正關注的是我們現在將如何實現這些成果。我們如何將績效紀律簡化到組織中的下一個級別？我們如何在逐個項目的選擇中構建更多價值、更少排放？我們如何確保到 2030 年超額實現每年 6% 的自由現金流增長，到 2025 年超額實現每股 10% 的自由現金流增長？

You have a management team that's committed to be able to delivering that, and we're excited by the opportunities we see. And we'll make sure to keep you informed as we go through the coming months and years. As Sinead rightly said, this is not a quarter-by-quarter battle, this is going to be one of every single day, getting to the quarters and then getting to the year and delivering on the promises that we have set out.

您擁有一支致力於實現這一目標的管理團隊，我們對看到的機會感到興奮。在接下來的幾個月和幾年中，我們將確保隨時向您通報情況。正如西尼德所說，這不是一場逐季度的戰鬥，這將是每一天的戰鬥，進入季度，然後進入年度，兌現我們所做出的承諾。

Those of you who are taking some time off, I wish you a restful break. Thank you for joining us today and look forward to catching up with you at the next occasion. Thank you all.

正在休假的各位，祝你們休息愉快。感謝您今天加入我們，並期待下次與您見面。謝謝你們。