殼牌 (SHEL) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Shell's Third Quarter 2022 Financial Results Announcement. Shell's CFO, Sinead Gorman will present the results, then host a Q&A session with CEO, Ben Van Beurden. (Operator Instructions) We will now begin the presentation.

歡迎閱讀殼牌 2022 年第三季度財務業績公告。殼牌首席財務官 Sinead Gorman 將介紹結果，然後主持與首席執行官 Ben Van Beurden 的問答環節。 （操作員說明）我們現在開始演示。

Welcome to our third quarter results presentation. With winter coming for many people and energy prices high, consumers and businesses have been trying to find solutions. This requires collaboration across all parts of our society, so we continue to engage with governments to help make their new policies effective and avoid unintended consequences in the energy markets.

歡迎來到我們的第三季度業績報告。隨著冬天對許多人的到來和能源價格的高漲，消費者和企業一直在努力尋找解決方案。這需要我們社會各個方面的合作，因此我們將繼續與政府合作，以幫助他們的新政策有效並避免對能源市場產生意外後果。

A good example of such collaboration is our gas storage agreements for the upcoming winter in Europe, particularly in Germany and Austria. And in the Netherlands, we have started to supply liquefied natural gas to the recently created LNG import hub. We have also been providing support to our customers. For example, we have increased the hardship fund for our Shell Energy retail customers. And we will double the payment of the government's Warm Home Discount scheme to the account of more than 150,000 customers in the U.K.

這種合作的一個很好的例子是我們為即將到來的歐洲冬季簽訂的天然氣儲存協議，特別是在德國和奧地利。在荷蘭，我們已經開始向最近建立的液化天然氣進口中心供應液化天然氣。我們也一直在為我們的客戶提供支持。例如，我們為殼牌能源零售客戶增加了困難基金。我們將把政府的暖房折扣計劃加倍支付給英國超過 150,000 名客戶的賬戶。

To address the short- and long-term energy needs, we must have a resilient portfolio of assets. We will achieve this through focused and competitive investments in a disciplined manner. For example, we are further growing our partnership with Qatar Energy with our involvement in the North Field South expansion, and we took a final investment decision on developing the Rosmari-Marjoram Gas Project in Malaysia, which will be primarily powered by renewable energy. Once built, the offshore platform will use power from 240 solar panels, whilst the onshore plant will be connected to the Sarawak grid system supplied from hydroelectric plants.

為了滿足短期和長期的能源需求，我們必須擁有有彈性的資產組合。我們將通過有紀律的重點和有競爭力的投資來實現這一目標。例如，我們正在進一步發展與卡塔爾能源公司的合作夥伴關係，參與北油田南擴建，我們就在馬來西亞開發 Rosmari-Marjoram 天然氣項目做出了最終投資決定，該項目將主要由可再生能源提供動力。一旦建成，海上平台將使用 240 個太陽能電池板的電力，而陸上工廠將連接到水力發電廠提供的砂拉越電網系統。

Also, we announced the acquisition of Shell Midstream Partners in the U.S. to further simplify our organization. We are more disciplined, and that sometimes means taking tough decisions when activities don't meet our investment criteria or don't perfectly fit our strategy. For example, in the U.S., we have sold our majority interest in the oil and gas company, Aera Energy. We've ended our participation in the early-stage wind projects in Ireland, and we have withdrawn from a deal to take liquified natural gas from developer Tellurian. We do not take these difficult decisions lightly.

此外，我們宣布收購美國殼牌中游合作夥伴，以進一步簡化我們的組織。我們更加自律，這有時意味著在活動不符合我們的投資標准或不完全符合我們的戰略時做出艱難的決定。例如，在美國，我們出售了我們在石油和天然氣公司 Aera Energy 的多數股權。我們已經結束了對愛爾蘭早期風電項目的參與，並且我們已經退出了從開發商 Tellurian 那裡獲取液化天然氣的交易。我們不會輕易做出這些艱難的決定。

When I think about focus and competitiveness, I also think about our marketing business update earlier this month. Our marketing business reaches millions of customers with a vast range of products and services. We are already #1 in many areas and intend to be competitive in the emerging ones, such as e-fluids, electric vehicle charging as well as biofuels. These solutions will especially help sectors that are hard to decarbonize. Over the past 3 years, around half of Marketing's combined capital and operational expenditure went towards activities that generate low-carbon products. Impressively, these activities contributed almost 60% to Marketing's earnings during the same period. With all these offerings, Marketing has that perfect combination of strong growth and returns, diversifying our portfolio.

當我想到專注和競爭力時，我也會想到本月早些時候我們的營銷業務更新。我們的營銷業務通過廣泛的產品和服務觸及數百萬客戶。我們已經在許多領域排名第一，並打算在電子流體、電動汽車充電以及生物燃料等新興領域具有競爭力。這些解決方案將特別有助於難以脫碳的行業。在過去 3 年中，市場營銷的資本和運營總支出中約有一半用於生產低碳產品的活動。令人印象深刻的是，這些活動在同一時期為營銷部門的收入貢獻了近 60%。憑藉所有這些產品，Marketing 將強勁的增長和回報完美結合，使我們的產品組合多樣化。

It is the quality of our portfolio, together with our strong operational delivery that has allowed us to significantly increase our shareholder distributions this year. We have now completed $6 billion of share buybacks for the third quarter. And today, we are increasing our shareholder distributions even further. We have announced a new $4 billion share buyback program, which we expect to complete by our Q4 results. This is expected to bring our total announced shareholder distributions for 2022 to $26 billion, in excess of 30% of our CFFO for the last 4 quarters. Through our share buybacks announced in 2022, we expect to repurchase some 10% of our share capital. And as indicated before, the reduction in share count allows us to increase our dividend in the future.

正是我們投資組合的質量，加上我們強大的運營交付，使我們能夠在今年顯著增加我們的股東分配。我們現在已經完成了第三季度 60 億美元的股票回購。而今天，我們正在進一步增加我們的股東分配。我們宣布了一項新的 40 億美元股票回購計劃，我們預計將在第四季度業績前完成。預計這將使我們宣布的 2022 年股東分配總額達到 260 億美元，超過過去 4 個季度我們 CFFO 的 30%。通過我們在 2022 年宣布的股票回購，我們預計將回購約 10% 的股本。如前所述，股票數量的減少使我們能夠在未來增加股息。

So today, reflecting our progressive dividend policy, we have also announced our plan to increase our dividend per share by an expected 15% at Q4 results, subject to Board approval. These increased distributions show our confidence in our business, its ability to fund, both our energy transition and our shareholder distributions.

因此，今天，為了反映我們的漸進式股息政策，我們還宣布了在第四季度業績中將每股股息預期增加 15% 的計劃，但須經董事會批准。這些增加的分配表明我們對我們的業務、其融資能力、我們的能源轉型和我們的股東分配的信心。

Now let's see the results for the quarter. In the third quarter, we delivered robust results in a volatile market environment. Our adjusted earnings were $9.5 billion. In Integrated Gas, after a strong first half of the year, adjusted earnings were lower compared to the second quarter, primarily driven by trading and optimization. Due to increasing market volatility, there was a significant dislocation in historically correlated gas markers. This dislocation arose as a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and a subsequent impact on the energy markets and regional gas prices.

現在讓我們看看本季度的結果。第三季度，我們在動蕩的市場環境中取得了強勁的業績。我們調整後的收益為 95 億美元。在綜合天然氣方面，經過上半年的強勁表現，調整後的收益與第二季度相比有所下降，主要是受交易和優化的推動。由於市場波動性增加，歷史上相關的天然氣指標出現嚴重錯位。這種錯位是由於俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭以及隨後對能源市場和地區天然氣價格的影響而產生的。

Our trading and optimization organization manages risk through hedging our physical volumes. Due to a breakdown in correlations, some hedges were less effective. LNG trading and optimization were also impacted by a combination of seasonality and supply constraints where the business is geared towards supplying the Northern Hemisphere during the winter.

我們的交易和優化組織通過對沖我們的實物交易量來管理風險。由於相關性的崩潰，一些對沖不太有效。液化天然氣交易和優化也受到季節性和供應限制的影響，該業務的目標是在冬季供應北半球。

Our Upstream business performed extremely well, delivering $5.9 billion despite a decrease in Brent prices since the previous quarter. Our focus on value over volume as well as operational excellence continues to deliver strong cash flows and earnings. To give you an example, this quarter, in our operated assets in the Gulf of Mexico, we achieved the highest production in a decade. This quarter, we delivered a very strong adjusted EBITDA of $21.5 billion, and our cash flow from operations was $12.5 billion. Working capital outflows were mainly due to seasonal gas inventory buildup as well as higher initial margin requirements in Renewables and Energy Solutions.

儘管布倫特原油價格自上一季度以來有所下降，但我們的上游業務表現非常出色，交付了 59 億美元。我們對價值而非數量的關注以及卓越運營繼續帶來強勁的現金流和收益。舉個例子，本季度，在我們在墨西哥灣運營的資產中，我們實現了十年來的最高產量。本季度，我們實現了非常強勁的 215 億美元的調整後 EBITDA，我們的運營現金流為 125 億美元。營運資金流出主要是由於季節性天然氣庫存增加以及可再生能源和能源解決方案的初始保證金要求較高。

That brings me to our financial framework. Our capital allocation priorities are unchanged. We will remain disciplined and invest in opportunities that align with our returns framework. This year, we expect our cash capital expenditure to be in the range of $23 billion to $27 billion. Another important aspect of our financial framework is net debt. It is now around $48 billion, which is slightly higher than last quarter. Having a strong balance sheet and maintaining AA credit rating remains one of our priorities.

這讓我想到了我們的財務框架。我們的資本配置重點沒有改變。我們將保持紀律並投資於符合我們回報框架的機會。今年，我們預計我們的現金資本支出將在 230 億美元至 270 億美元之間。我們財務框架的另一個重要方面是淨債務。現在約為 480 億美元，略高於上一季度。擁有強大的資產負債表和維持 AA 信用評級仍然是我們的首要任務之一。

So this quarter clearly shows our financial framework in action, and we have demonstrated discipline and focus in managing our investments and financial position. We have confidence in our business and its delivery, which is why we are enhancing our shareholder distributions with new share buybacks and planned dividend increase for the fourth quarter. As we transform our business, we will continue to deliver the secure supply of energy that the world needs today and in the decades ahead. Thank you.

因此，本季度清楚地展示了我們正在實施的財務框架，並且我們在管理我們的投資和財務狀況方面表現出紀律和專注。我們對我們的業務及其交付充滿信心，這就是為什麼我們通過新的股票回購和計劃在第四季度增加股息來加強我們的股東分配。隨著我們業務轉型，我們將繼續提供世界今天和未來幾十年所需的安全能源供應。謝謝你。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Thank you for joining us today. We hope that after watching this presentation, you've seen how we are more focused, more disciplined and more competitive whilst we provide the energy which the world needs today and in the future. Today, Ben and I will be answering your questions.

感謝您今天加入我們。我們希望在觀看此演示後，您已經看到我們在提供當今和未來世界所需的能量的同時，我們是如何更加專注、更加自律和更具競爭力的。今天，本和我將回答你的問題。

And just before we kick off, Ben, as I said earlier, this is your last quarter.

就在我們開始之前，本，正如我之前所說，這是你的最後一個季度。

Yes.

是的。

Feels, like, a very sad moment, I have to say. You've been our CEO for 9 years, and you've led us through some tough and some wonderful times. We've had the BG acquisition, which has been fabulous and, of course, also the difficult times through COVID. And you've set us up so well for the future. So just a big thank you from me. It's been -- yes, it's been wonderful to work for you.

感覺，就像，一個非常悲傷的時刻，我不得不說。您擔任我們的 CEO 已有 9 年了，您帶領我們度過了艱難和美好的時光。我們已經完成了對 BG 的收購，這非常棒，當然，也包括 COVID 帶來的困難時期。你為我們的未來做好了準備。所以我非常感謝你。一直——是的，為你工作真是太好了。

Same here. Thank you very much, Sinead.

同樣在這裡。非常感謝，西尼德。

Too short. And now please, could we have just 1 or 2 questions each so everyone has the opportunity? And with that, can we have the first one, please, operator?

太短。現在拜託，我們每個人都可以提出 1 或 2 個問題，以便每個人都有機會嗎？有了這個，我們可以有第一個嗎，請接線員？

The first question is from Irene Himona at Societe Generale.

第一個問題來自法國興業銀行的 Irene Himona。

Congratulations, Ben. Thank you very much. So I had 2 questions. First, can you please give us an estimate for your 2022 cash liability, firstly, for the U.K. windfall tax and then secondly, for the EU solidarity tax? And my second question, going back to the 15% dividend increase for the fourth quarter. Some will obviously be from the reduced share count and then there's the genuine dividend increase.

恭喜，本。非常感謝。所以我有2個問題。首先，您能否給我們估計一下您 2022 年的現金負債，首先是英國的意外之財稅，其次是歐盟團結稅？我的第二個問題，回到第四季度 15% 的股息增長。有些顯然是來自股票數量的減少，然後是真正的股息增加。

And for that progressive dividend increase, you had been guiding to a sustainable 4% a year growth at your reference oil price. Obviously, current commodity prices are well above that. So basically, if we remove the benefit of the reduced share count, what was the underlying genuine per share dividend increase you announced today, please?

對於股息的逐步增加，您一直在以您的參考油價實現每年 4% 的可持續增長。顯然，當前的商品價格遠高於此。所以基本上，如果我們取消減少股票數量的好處，請問你今天宣布的潛在每股股息增加是多少？

All right. Thank you, Irene. And I will actually take both of those, if that's okay, Ben. Yes, indeed. So on the first one, I mean, you asked specifically about the liability that we face with respect to both the U.K. and EU solidarity. So with respect to U.K. and windfall tax, per this quarter, we have not seen an impact coming through largely because of the amount of investment that we've got at this moment in time.

好的。謝謝你，艾琳。如果可以的話，我實際上會接受這兩個，Ben。確實是的。所以在第一個問題上，我的意思是，您特別詢問了我們在英國和歐盟團結方面面臨的責任。因此，關於英國和意外之財稅，在本季度，我們沒有看到影響，主要是因為我們目前獲得的投資量。

As you know, it depends on how much you're investing and what profits you make. Therefore, it's not going to apply, we believe, this year to us. Beyond that, what we're seeing, of course, is that we expect, given where prices are, that we'll pool will be impacted in Q1 2023, but let's see how it plays out.

如您所知，這取決於您投資了多少以及您獲得了多少利潤。因此，我們相信，今年它不適用於我們。除此之外，我們當然看到的是，鑑於價格在哪裡，我們預計將在 2023 年第一季度受到影響，但讓我們看看它是如何發揮作用的。

Your second part of the first was with respect to the EU solidarity. Because we haven't seen that enacted yet, we have not actually had any impact in Q3. You're asking how it's going to play out in Q4. It's quite difficult to tell at the moment, because each country has to enact that, Irene. So what we're waiting to see is what happens in the core countries as well. So I won't predict where that will end up.

你的第一部分的第二部分是關於歐盟的團結。因為我們還沒有看到它頒布，所以我們實際上在第三季度沒有產生任何影響。你在問它在第四季度將如何發揮作用。目前很難說，因為每個國家都必須制定，艾琳。因此，我們正在等待看到的是核心國家也會發生什麼。所以我不會預測最終會在哪裡。

Your second point was around the 15% dividend increase and question, really, how much is -- does that involve? Well, you're right. There are 2 parts to that, of course. We've been talking about how, by doing share buybacks, we create capacity for future dividend increases, and that's what's occurred here. We have a 4% progressive dividend and that's part of that 15%.

你的第二點是關於 15% 的股息增長和問題，真的，這涉及到多少？嗯，你是對的。當然，這有兩個部分。我們一直在討論如何通過股票回購為未來增加股息創造能力，這就是這裡發生的事情。我們有 4% 的累進股息，這是 15% 的一部分。

But if I were to take a step back and look at how much share buybacks 2022 have definitely given us capacity for, excluding Permian, it's around 7%. Including Permian, it's heading towards 9% to 10%. So you can see the building blocks there. Without Permian, 7% plus the 4% progressive and then you see the difference to 15%. I hope that helps, Irene. With that, operator, could I please have the next one?

但是，如果我退後一步，看看 2022 年的股票回購肯定給了我們多少能力，不包括二疊紀，它大約是 7%。包括二疊紀在內，它正朝著 9% 到 10% 前進。所以你可以看到那裡的積木。沒有二疊紀，7% 加上 4% 漸進式，然後你會看到 15% 的差異。我希望這會有所幫助，艾琳。有了這個，接線員，我可以請下一個嗎？

The next question is from Oswald Clint at Bernstein.

下一個問題來自 Bernstein 的 Oswald Clint。

Just a question, please, on the Upstream. Just looking at some of the margins here, the EBITDA per barrel, for example, $73, which pretty impressive and must be close to the highs. I know gas prices were higher, but you called out the Gulf of Mexico producing a decade-highs, and I think Wael was recently telling us how breakevens in that business have been pushed all the way down, I think, to $25. So is it gas? Or is it really a bit of evidence around these low breakevens in big basins like the Gulf of Mexico? Is it just the Gulf of Mexico or is it really a stronger performance across much of the Upstream portfolio, please? First question.

請在上游提出一個問題。只看這裡的一些利潤率，例如每桶 EBITDA 為 73 美元，這非常令人印象深刻，並且必須接近高點。我知道天然氣價格更高，但你說墨西哥灣生產了十年來的最高點，我認為 Wael 最近告訴我們該行業的盈虧平衡點是如何被一路推低至 25 美元的。那麼是氣體嗎？或者，在墨西哥灣這樣的大盆地，這些低盈虧平衡點真的有一點證據嗎？請問它只是墨西哥灣還是在上游的大部分投資組合中表現更強勁？第一個問題。

And then secondly, I wanted to ask around Integrated Gas here this quarter. I know there's been a lot of discussion. It looks like in my model, which is not accurate, but it looks like potentially a loss in trading and optimization, which I think would be the first time ever. So would I be wrong in saying you lost money this quarter, which, as I said, would be the first time? And frankly, what's your view on when these correlations start to relink? And will you change your hedging strategy for 2023, please?

其次，我想問一下本季度這裡的綜合氣體。我知道有很多討論。在我的模型中看起來並不准確，但看起來可能會在交易和優化方面造成損失，我認為這將是有史以來的第一次。那麼我說你本季度虧錢是不是錯了，正如我所說，這將是第一次？坦率地說，您對這些相關性何時開始重新關聯有何看法？請問你會改變你2023年的對沖策略嗎？

Oswald, let me take the second one, indeed. So with respect to Integrated Gas, Oswald, where you're looking at that. So if I take a step back so -- and think through, we tend to look, as you well know, on our Integrated Gas business as being pretty much second to none. It is an impressive portfolio that we have. And of course, you need to look at it over a number of quarters, because things do happen between quarters. So we look at it like that.

奧斯瓦爾德，讓我拿第二個，真的。所以關於綜合天然氣，奧斯瓦爾德，你正在看的地方。因此，如果我退後一步 - 仔細考慮一下，我們傾向於認為，眾所周知，我們的綜合天然氣業務幾乎是首屈一指的。這是我們擁有的令人印象深刻的投資組合。當然，您需要在多個季度中查看它，因為事情確實會在季度之間發生。所以我們這樣看。

If I look at the year-to-date, looking back at that, what I'm seeing this year for the 3 quarters is higher than I've seen from the previous year for the similar quarters as well. So I don't have any concerns there. With respect to -- from that point of view, so you asked specifically around the correlations. I'm not going to predict. I know better than to try and predict where we will see in terms of TTF and JKM.

如果我回顧一下年初至今，回顧一下，我今年看到的三個季度的情況也高於我在前一年的類似季度中看到的情況。所以我對此沒有任何顧慮。關於 - 從那個角度來看，所以你專門詢問了相關性。我不打算預測。我知道最好不要嘗試預測我們將在 TTF 和 JKM 方面看到的位置。

But what I would say in terms of the way we hedge, we ask our traders to look after price risk management for us, and we're very comfortable with that. What you have seen, of course, is that hedges are not 100% effective. And what we tend to do, of course, is to hedge from the perspective of a seasonality approach rather than quarterly, Oswald. And that's where you see just the difference across the 2.

但就我們對沖的方式而言，我想說的是，我們要求交易員為我們進行價格風險管理，我們對此非常滿意。當然，您所看到的是對沖並非 100% 有效。當然，我們傾向於從季節性方法而不是季度的角度進行對沖，奧斯瓦爾德。這就是你看到 2 的區別的地方。

And of course, you will always end up with basis risk regardless. So in terms of that, our hedging strategy is working very well for us. We always review hedging approaches as you go through different periods. And of course, with volatility, we always look at it, too, so thank you.

當然，無論如何，您最終都會面臨基差風險。因此，就這一點而言，我們的對沖策略對我們來說非常有效。我們總是在您經歷不同時期時審查對沖方法。當然，對於波動性，我們也會一直關注它，所以謝謝。

I can take the first question, indeed, but -- thanks for that question as well, Oswald. I think, indeed, the Gulf of Mexico had an exceptionally strong quarter. Can I add, by the way, that in addition to having the strongest performance volume-wise for the last 10 years, they've also completed a year without a single safety incident whatsoever, which, of course, is fantastic news, too.

確實，我可以回答第一個問題，但是 -- 也感謝 Oswald 提出的這個問題。我認為，墨西哥灣確實有一個異常強勁的季度。順便說一句，我可以補充一下，除了在過去 10 年中擁有最強勁的性能外，他們還完成了一年沒有任何安全事故，當然，這也是一個好消息。

But it's not just the Gulf of Mexico. I would say it's very much across, certainly, the entire Deepwater portfolio. Our Brazil business has been doing very well as well. And I think what you are seeing here, Oswald, also is basically the effect of the high-grading that we have been doing for the last year. So we have an extremely high-quality portfolio. I think the tail assets are getting out of the portfolio. And what you see when, indeed, macro is okay or supportive, you get very strong results. So I would say it's just more than that. It's more than just a (inaudible).

但這不僅僅是墨西哥灣。我會說它非常廣泛，當然，整個深水投資組合。我們的巴西業務也一直做得很好。我認為你在這裡看到的，奧斯瓦爾德，基本上也是我們去年一直在做的高分級的效果。所以我們有一個非常高質量的產品組合。我認為尾部資產正在退出投資組合。當你看到，事實上，宏觀是好的或支持的，你會得到非常好的結果。所以我想說的還不止這些。它不僅僅是一個（聽不清）。

Indeed. Thank you, Ben. Thank you. Operator, could we have the next one?

的確。謝謝你，本。謝謝你。接線員，我們可以有下一個嗎？

The next question is from Biraj Borkhataria at RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Biraj Borkhataria。

Congratulations, Ben, firstly, and best of luck with your retirement. Two questions, please. The first one, just going back to Oswald's questions on the hedging and 3Q impact. So my understanding is this year has been quite hard to offload hedges, like, in the secondary market because of the huge margin requirements. And obviously, you can manage the margin calls but some smaller companies can't do that.

首先祝賀你，Ben，祝你退休好運。請教兩個問題。第一個，回到奧斯瓦爾德關於對沖和第三季度影響的問題。所以我的理解是，由於巨大的保證金要求，今年很難在二級市場上拋售對沖。顯然，您可以管理追加保證金通知，但一些較小的公司無法做到這一點。

At the same time, I guess investors will want some comfort around the 3Q results and that not being a structural issue. And given the basis kind of -- or the spreads have been blowing out since March, April, can you talk about what you've been doing since then to sort of ensure that this is a sort of a one-off rather than a structural issue?

同時，我猜投資者會希望對第三季度業績有所安慰，這不是結構性問題。考慮到基差——或者自 3 月、4 月以來價差一直在擴大，你能否談談自那時以來你一直在做的事情，以確保這是一次性的，而不是結構性的問題？

And then the second question is kind of just going back a few months ago. So you've moved your listing from a dual list to the U.K. There's actually a European company in a different sector, recently announced intentions to move to the U.S. And they talked about market structure issues and constraints on valuation. And you're seeing here as greater than 10% weighting in the FTSE100.

然後第二個問題可以追溯到幾個月前。所以你已經把你的上市從雙重名單轉移到英國。實際上有一家歐洲公司在不同的行業，最近宣布打算搬到美國。他們談到了市場結構問題和估值限制。您在這裡看到的 FTSE100 的權重超過 10%。

So I appreciate, Ben, you're probably not going to want to kick this off on your way into retirement, but you probably would have studied a potential U.S. listing a few months ago when you were considering the move to the U.K. So can you walk us through your takeaways on that analysis and how you ended up where you are?

所以我很感激，本，你可能不想在退休的路上開始這件事，但幾個月前，當你考慮搬到英國時，你可能會研究潛在的美國上市。你能帶我們了解您對該分析的看法，以及您是如何走到現在的？

Excellent. Thanks, Biraj. Two very different questions there. I'll take the first and I suspect we'll tag-team on the second, because it'd be interesting to hear the perspective as we made the U.K. approach. So you asked in terms of a few things there. First of all, it is not structural. I'm comfortable with that, without a doubt, very comfortable with where we are. And the way I would frame it as well, Biraj, is that when I look at our Integrated Gas business, I look at it from 3 different areas. I look at it from seasonality, supply and then paper versus physical.

出色的。謝謝，比拉傑。那裡有兩個非常不同的問題。我會拿第一個，我懷疑我們會在第二個上標記團隊，因為在我們接近英國時聽到這個觀點會很有趣。所以你問了那裡的一些事情。首先，它不是結構性的。我對此很滿意，毫無疑問，對我們所處的位置非常滿意。 Biraj，我也認為，當我審視我們的綜合天然氣業務時，我會從 3 個不同的領域來看待它。我從季節性、供應以及紙張與實物來看待它。

On the seasonality perspective of it, as you know, we tend to be very much set up for the Northern Hemisphere winter, and that's what you see here. So we tend to be shorter in Q3, a bit more length in Q4 and Q1, and that is consistent. The other thing that we look at is the supply side of things. As you know, Prelude was done for a large part of the quarter, and therefore, we didn't see some of those cargoes coming in so we were even tighter than we were before.

如您所知，從季節性的角度來看，我們傾向於為北半球的冬季做好準備，這就是您在這裡看到的。所以我們在第三季度往往更短，在第四季度和第一季度更長一點，這是一致的。我們關注的另一件事是事物的供應方面。如您所知，Prelude 已經完成了本季度的大部分時間，因此，我們沒有看到其中一些貨物進來，所以我們比以前更加緊張。

And then paper versus physical. And we talked a little bit about the hedges just a moment ago where I mentioned about the fact -- we ask for price risk management. And of course, you don't get perfect hedges. You don't get 100% effective hedges as well. So what we see there is the need to look at our hedging program from a seasonal perspective versus the quarterly perspective. And I'll just be very, very frank on that as well. When you're one of the largest LNG players out there, any small move, of course, gets magnified quite considerably as well.

然後是紙張與物理。剛才我們談到了對沖，我提到了一個事實——我們要求進行價格風險管理。當然，你不會得到完美的對沖。您也不會獲得 100% 有效的對沖。因此，我們認為有必要從季節性角度而不是季度角度來看待我們的對沖計劃。我也將非常非常坦率地說。當您是最大的 LNG 參與者之一時，任何小動作當然也會被大大放大。

So I will go back and remind us of the very good results that we've had earlier this year as well. So definitely not structural without a doubt. Second one was on dual listing. And Ben, would you like to start in terms of consideration?

所以我會回過頭來提醒我們今年早些時候我們也取得了非常好的結果。因此，毫無疑問，絕對不是結構性的。第二個是雙重上市。 Ben，你想從考慮的角度開始嗎？

Well, yes. Thanks, Biraj, also for your kind words. I would -- yes, of course, we looked at a number of options at a time. We were clear what needed doing in terms of the simplification of the share structure. Of course, you'd have to look at what options do we have. And the U.K. was an obvious option. The U.S. was 1 there as well.

嗯，是。謝謝，Biraj，也謝謝你的客氣話。我會- 是的，當然，我們一次查看了多個選項。我們很清楚在簡化股權結構方面需要做什麼。當然，你必須看看我們有什麼選擇。英國是一個明顯的選擇。美國也是1。

I think you have to also look at what is the art of the doable because, of course, moving not only our tax residents but also then, most likely, the indexation out of both the U.K. and the Netherlands would have meant a tremendous amount of upheaval for our shareholders.

我認為你還必須看看什麼是可行的藝術，因為當然，不僅將我們的稅收居民遷出，而且很可能，英國和荷蘭的指數化將意味著大量的為我們的股東帶來劇變。

And in the end, this was meant to be a shareholder-friendly move. I'm not entirely sure whether that would have voted for us to, well, to move the head office and the listing into the U.S. No matter how much you can look at it right now and say, well, you tend to get a better multiple if you are a U.S.-based and U.S.-listed.

最後，這本來是對股東友好的舉措。我不完全確定這是否會投票支持我們將總部和上市遷至美國。無論您現在如何看待它並說，嗯，您往往會變得更好如果您是美國公司和美國上市公司，則為多個。

Indeed. Thank you, Ben. Dan, could we have the next one, please?

的確。謝謝你，本。丹，請給我們下一個好嗎？

The next question is from Lucas Herrmann at Exane.

下一個問題來自 Exane 的 Lucas Herrmann。

Ben, thank you for putting up with me for the better part of the last 9, 10 years. And I guess to some good extent, congratulations as well in the -- I think you leave behind a better business than you inherited, and I think that's probably all one can ask as CEO and custodian.

Ben，感謝您在過去 9 年、10 年的大部分時間裡忍受我。我想在某種程度上，也恭喜你——我認為你留下了比你繼承的更好的業務，我認為這可能是作為首席執行官和託管人所能要求的全部內容。

Two questions. Sorry, the first 1 is back to the dividend, and it's a little conceptual, and dividends from Shell concepts are kind of difficult because of history. But it's -- what's the right level of distribution of dividend? And I ask because when I look at the mix -- or the mix of dividend and buyback across your major peers, not least your U.S. peers, or when I look at the percentage of cash flow from operations in a normalized environment, and by that, I mean, something near a 50-60, which, based on your past presentations, would suggest a cash flow from operations is somewhere around $45 billion.

兩個問題。抱歉，第一個 1 回到了紅利，有點概念化，殼牌概念的紅利有點困難，因為歷史原因。但它是——什麼是正確的股息分配水平？我之所以問，是因為當我查看主要同行（尤其是美國同行）的股息和回購組合時，或者當我查看正常環境下運營現金流的百分比時， ，我的意思是，接近 50-60，根據您過去的介紹，這表明運營現金流量約為 450 億美元。

The indication is you're paying out under 20% of cash flow now as dividend. Your peers are probably nearer 30%, 35% on a normalized basis. So what was the discussion within the Board around this increase? And more broadly, just commentary around what you think the right level is or why this is at the right level.

跡象表明，您現在支付的股息不到 20% 的現金流。您的同齡人可能接近 30%，在標準化的基礎上為 35%。那麼董事會內部圍繞這一增長進行了哪些討論？更廣泛地說，只是評論你認為正確的水平是什麼或為什麼這是正確的水平。

And then sorry, Sinead, I wanted to ask about storage and the gas that's gone into storage, which clearly has had a very significant working capital impact this quarter. But more to think about -- I guess, it's twofold, a, can you give us any indication of what the level of working capital associated with that gas is? And b, what the benefits that we might anticipate should be? Because I am presuming that you've hedged it and you've not left yourself exposed to what's a very volatile market. Any observations there would be helpful. Sorry, it's long-winded.

然後對不起，Sinead，我想問一下存儲和進入存儲的天然氣，這顯然對本季度的營運資金產生了非常重大的影響。但需要更多思考——我想，它是雙重的，a，你能告訴我們與這種氣體相關的營運資金水平是多少嗎？ b，我們可能預期的好處應該是什麼？因為我假設你已經對沖它並且你沒有讓自己暴露在一個非常動蕩的市場中。那裡的任何觀察都會有所幫助。抱歉，囉嗦了很久。

That's okay. Lucas, actually, I'm going to take both of them, if that's okay, Ben. So on the first one, in terms of the right level, indeed, it's the art versus the science, isn't it, as you go through those. We've been very clear in terms of the distributions, Lucas, in terms of basically saying hard floor, soft ceiling, 20% to 30% of our CFFO, and you've seen us go through with that.

沒關係。盧卡斯，實際上，如果可以的話，我會帶走他們兩個，本。所以在第一個方面，就正確的水平而言，確實，這是藝術與科學的對比，不是嗎，當你經歷這些時。我們在分配方面非常清楚，盧卡斯，基本上說硬地板，軟天花板，我們 CFFO 的 20% 到 30%，你已經看到我們經歷了這些。

So as we've gone through, we've looked at, well, where do we go from there? We've created, as we said many times, the capacity through the buybacks to be able to increase the dividend as well. But it is about sustainability going forward. And this is about us having confidence in our future cash flows. But of course, it's twofold to that. We have many shareholders who are very interested in the buybacks and many others that are income-related and very much pushing for higher dividend as well.

所以當我們經歷過時，我們已經看過，好吧，我們從那裡去哪裡？正如我們多次說過的那樣，我們已經通過回購創造了能夠增加股息的能力。但這是關於未來的可持續性。這是關於我們對未來現金流的信心。但當然，這是雙重的。我們有許多對回購非常感興趣的股東，還有許多與收入相關的股東，他們也非常推動更高的股息。

And we've heard the message around that as well. I felt it was a good timing to be able to give some clarity around that. So given where we are, we weigh up and that was a discussion at the Board, the weigh-up between both the fixed element and the variable element and making sure that we keep both in our toolkit as we go forward. And you will continue to see that as well.

我們也聽到了這方面的信息。我覺得現在是能夠對此進行澄清的好時機。因此，鑑於我們所處的位置，我們進行權衡，這是董事會的討論，固定元素和可變元素之間的權衡，並確保我們在前進的過程中將兩者都保留在我們的工具包中。你也將繼續看到這一點。

Second question, sorry, flipping to a very different topic was around storage, as you say. And you saw that flow through, Lucas, in our renewables -- Renewables and Energy Solutions business. So it was coming through on that. So indeed, we have fed into storage, particularly in Europe.

第二個問題，抱歉，正如您所說，轉到一個非常不同的主題是圍繞存儲。盧卡斯，您在我們的可再生能源——可再生能源和能源解決方案業務中看到了這一點。所以它正在通過。因此，事實上，我們已經進入存儲，特別是在歐洲。

It's really what Europe needed as we went through. In terms of the working capital, what would you say, just over $3 billion, I would say, is around the number in terms of how much is in storage at the moment around that. And yes, we are hedged. So I hope that gives you some perspective. Dan, may we have the next question, please?

在我們經歷的過程中，這確實是歐洲所需要的。就營運資金而言，你會說，剛剛超過 30 億美元，我想說的是，就目前存儲的數量而言，大約是這個數字。是的，我們被對沖了。所以我希望這能給你一些觀點。丹，我們可以問下一個問題嗎？

The next question is from Roger Read at Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Roger Read。

Ben, congratulations. I hope your next chapter is as fun and fulfilling or maybe more fun and more fulfilling than the most recent one here. Questions for you all. I just want to understand the CapEx range. Obviously, you're going to come in at the low end or below it for this year. How should we think about it next year, at least conceptually, in terms of inflation, the projects that are underway, any other headwinds or tailwinds on that?

本，恭喜。我希望你的下一章和最近的一章一樣有趣和充實，或者可能更有趣、更充實。給大家的問題。我只想了解資本支出範圍。顯然，今年你將進入低端或低於它。明年我們應該如何看待它，至少在概念上，在通貨膨脹、正在進行的項目、任何其他逆風或順風方面？

And then my other question to follow up is the dividend raise. Obviously, it's been something people wanted to see at all. But just curious, as you think about this raise and how it sets up future rates or just how you're looking at the overall picture of shareholder returns in terms of the dividend versus share repurchases?

然後我要跟進的另一個問題是提高股息。顯然，這是人們最想看到的。但只是好奇，當您考慮此次加薪以及它如何設定未來利率，或者您如何看待股息與股票回購方面的股東回報總體情況？

Okay. Ben, would you like to take the CapEx? Well, I'm very happy to. I'm just...

好的。本，你願意接受資本支出嗎？嗯，我很高興。我只是...

Yes. No, Let me, first of all, Roger, thank you for your comments. And on your remarks, was it fun or fulfilling, actually, it was definitely fulfilling. It has been quite a consequential term and I had quite a bit of fun as well, so don't worry about that. Yes, on the CapEx, we normally don't make any announcements, of course, in the third quarter when it comes to CapEx.

是的。不，讓我，首先，羅傑，謝謝你的評論。根據你的說法，它是有趣還是充實，實際上，它絕對是充實的。這是一個相當重要的術語，我也玩得很開心，所以不用擔心。是的，在資本支出方面，我們通常不會發布任何公告，當然，在第三季度涉及資本支出時。

But what we -- and I would say, if you want to make statements about CapEx, it should be for the new CEO to do rather than for the outgoing CEO. What I can say though is that we are a disciplined company, and we have worked very hard to demonstrate that we are disciplined. And therefore, what you can expect is, again, a very disciplined approach to how we invest, understanding that we have to invest for the future. We have to also return to shareholders, and we have to continue to strengthen the balance sheet. So in that sense, philosophically, there is going to be no change in how we think about allocating capital.

但是我們——我想說的是，如果你想就資本支出發表聲明，應該由新任 CEO 來做，而不是由即將離任的 CEO 來做。不過我可以說的是，我們是一家紀律嚴明的公司，我們一直在努力證明我們是紀律嚴明的。因此，您可以再次期待我們的投資方式非常自律，了解我們必須為未來投資。我們還必須回報股東，我們必須繼續加強資產負債表。所以從這個意義上說，從哲學上講，我們對資本配置的看法不會發生變化。

Indeed. Thank you, Ben. Actually, that's really a large part of the answer to the second question as well, which you're asking really, Roger, about how do we consider the dividend range, et cetera? And how do we do that weigh-up? It is very much about being -- looking after the balance sheet. So strong balance sheet, ensuring we have discipline around our CapEx and our investment range and then making sure that we deliver compelling returns to our shareholders.

的確。謝謝你，本。實際上，這也是第二個問題答案的很大一部分，羅傑，你真的在問這個問題，關於我們如何考慮股息範圍等等？我們如何進行權衡？這在很大程度上是關於 - 照顧資產負債表。如此強大的資產負債表，確保我們對資本支出和投資範圍有紀律，然後確保我們為股東帶來可觀的回報。

And as I've said before, it really is that mix between the fixed, which is the dividend side of things, and the variable, which is the share buyback. So it's making sure we weigh those up at each time and making sure that it's sustainable into the future as well. So it will take some balancing. Thank you. Dan, may I have the next question, please?

正如我之前所說，這確實是固定因素（即股息方面）和可變因素（即股票回購）之間的混合。因此，它確保我們每次都權衡這些，並確保它在未來也是可持續的。所以需要一些平衡。謝謝你。丹，我可以問下一個問題嗎？

The next question is from Giacomo Romeo at Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Giacomo Romeo。

And Ben, good luck with whatever comes next for you. And 2 questions. So there are -- on issues that are already been discussed, but I would like to go back to the sustainability of the dividend and I completely understand that you want to keep a level that is sustainable through the cycle.

還有本，祝你接下來的一切好運。和2個問題。所以有 - 關於已經討論過的問題，但我想回到股息的可持續性，我完全理解你希望在整個週期中保持可持續的水平。

But if you go back to -- in the second quarter, you have raised your long-term oil price. So that, in theory, should support a higher level of dividend, right? And the 15% increase today that, as you discussed, is basically just barely reflecting the reduction in shares and the 4% annual growth that you already have in policies. Just wanted to understand how do you fit the increase in dividend today versus your change in terms of long-term views on sustainable oil prices.

但如果你回到 - 在第二季度，你已經提高了長期油價。因此，理論上，應該支持更高水平的股息，對吧？正如您所討論的，今天 15% 的增長基本上僅反映了股票的減少和您已經在保單中實現的 4% 的年增長率。只是想了解您如何適應今天股息的增加與您對可持續油價的長期看法的變化。

The other question is -- goes back on the gas trading, and it's -- just wanted to understand, because obviously, we don't see -- we haven't seen as much volatility in some of your other peers. Obviously, I understand there's a scale issue here.

另一個問題是 - 回到天然氣交易，它 - 只是想了解，因為顯然，我們沒有看到 - 我們沒有看到其他一些同行的波動性如此之大。顯然，我知道這裡存在規模問題。

But I'm just wondering whether -- following what happened in the summer, you are reassessing the way you sort of look at your basis risk within the portfolio, and whether we should expect your trading business to be impacted again should the TTF-JKM spread widen again as it did in the third quarter.

但我只是想知道 - 在夏季發生的事情之後，您是否正在重新評估您在投資組合中看待基差風險的方式，以及如果 TTF-JKM 發生，我們是否應該預期您的交易業務會再次受到影響與第三季度一樣，價差再次擴大。

Excellent, Giacomo. I will take both of those. With respect to the first one, you're correct. We did raise our long-term outlook with respect to oil, and that has been factored into, as we consider, where do we believe we're going forward. I would say, I think the 15% is a compelling change. We are feeding back the capacity that we've created, plus more, plus the 4% as well.

太好了，賈科莫。我會拿這兩個。關於第一個，你是對的。我們確實提高了對石油的長期展望，正如我們所考慮的那樣，我們認為我們將在哪裡前進。我想說，我認為 15% 是一個引人注目的變化。我們正在反饋我們創造的容量，再加上更多，再加上 4%。

And if I add up what we have announced in terms of buybacks plus the dividend as well for this year, I would say talking about $26 billion of returns back to shareholders is a compelling number, without a doubt. The $4 billion of share buyback is also sizable and we need to remember that as we go through.

如果我將我們宣布的回購和今年的股息加起來，我會說 260 億美元的股東回報是一個令人信服的數字，毫無疑問。 40 億美元的股票回購也相當可觀，我們需要記住這一點。

So when you said also, about the gas trading business and just thinking through your question there, you're asking really, should we expect more, I will never predict where the markets are going to go through into the future. I think what I've learned watching these in the last 6 months is that there are a lot of volatility and it is not sensible for me to try and go there.

因此，當您還談到天然氣交易業務時，您只是在思考您的問題，您真的在問，如果我們期待更多，我永遠不會預測未來市場將走向何方。我認為我在過去 6 個月中通過觀察這些事件了解到的是，波動性很大，我嘗試去那裡是不明智的。

What I would say, of course, is that we are very focused in terms of where we hedge, what we put in place and being quite measured in what we do. So our traders are doing exactly what we asked them to do in this price risk management as well. Again, as I've said, we tend to hedge seasonally so I wouldn't look at the basis risk carrying into other quarters. Things tend to move quite quickly and you have to see what occurs as it is. So thank you for the questions. Dan, may we have the next, please?

當然，我要說的是，我們非常專注於我們的對沖位置、我們實施的措施以及我們所做的事情。因此，我們的交易員也在做我們要求他們在價格風險管理中做的事情。同樣，正如我所說，我們傾向於進行季節性對沖，因此我不會考慮將基差風險轉移到其他季度。事情往往發展得很快，你必須看看發生了什麼。所以謝謝你的問題。丹，請給我們下一個好嗎？

The next question is from Amy Wong at Credit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Amy Wong。

And Ben, also, I'd like, to wish you good luck on your journey, and thanks for your vision all these years. A couple of the questions I have, firstly, is in the Renewables segment. We've seen a few more low-carbon transactions in the market, whether it's in renewable power generation or in the circular economy space.

還有本，我想祝您旅途愉快，並感謝您這些年來的遠見卓識。首先，我有幾個問題是在可再生能源領域。我們在市場上看到了更多的低碳交易，無論是在可再生能源發電還是在循環經濟領域。

And I believe Shell's also mentioned in the news of potentially being interested in some biogas in Europe as well. So can you comment a bit on the M&A pipeline that you're now seeing, some of the bid offers there and compare that to what the conditions, say, a year ago, what you're seeing there?

而且我相信殼牌在新聞中也提到了可能對歐洲的一些沼氣感興趣。那麼，您能否對您現在看到的併購渠道、那裡的一些投標報價發表評論，並將其與一年前的情況進行比較，您在那裡看到的情況？

And then the second one is a rather quick one. Just on your R&ES business. I know it's always difficult to segregate the operations from the trading and all that. But it'd be helpful to understand whether your renewable power-gen assets are generating a positive EBITDA.

然後第二個是一個相當快的。就在您的 R&ES 業務上。我知道將操作與交易等分離總是很困難的。但了解您的可再生能源發電資產是否產生正的 EBITDA 會有所幫助。

Yes, okay. Thank you. Great. I feel bad always passing across, I'm never sure which one to go with. So I'll take the second one and then pass the first, if that's okay, Ben, to you. So in terms of just keeping it short, Amy, you're basically saying, what are they generating? It's a marginal loss, I would say, coming through.

是的，好的。謝謝你。偉大的。總覺得路過，不知道選哪一個。所以我會拿第二個，然後把第一個傳給你，如果可以的話，本，給你。因此，就保持簡短而言，艾米，您基本上是在說，它們在產生什麼？我想說，這是一個邊際損失。

It changes. Those are investments into the future. At the moment, so of course, we're in that start-up phase where we have to move through them. So it is, as you say, primarily what you're seeing coming through this quarter relates to volatility that you see in the gas and power markets as well. So I'll keep that short. Thank you.

它改變。這些都是對未來的投資。目前，當然，我們正處於啟動階段，我們必須通過它們。因此，正如您所說，您在本季度看到的主要與您在天然氣和電力市場中看到的波動有關。所以我會保持簡短。謝謝你。

Yes. And thanks for your comments, Amy. We never, of course, comment very much on M&A. Rest assured that we still have an M&A team that is looking at opportunities and not just divestments, also looking at opportunities in the market. Of course, we live in a very volatile time, not only for commodity prices but also interest rates, therefore, also valuations of companies.

是的。感謝您的評論，艾米。當然，我們從不對併購發表太多評論。請放心，我們仍然有一支併購團隊正在尋找機會，而不僅僅是撤資，還在尋找市場機會。當然，我們生活在一個非常不穩定的時代，不僅是商品價格，還有利率，因此，公司的估值也是如此。

And indeed, opportunities may come up that are interesting and attractive and that we may want to execute within the capital framework that we have. So let me not specifically comment on that 1 company that you referenced, but it -- but we always look at a whole range of options. And we want to make sure that not only do they strategically fit and that we have -- if we take on these opportunities, we have a long-term strategic plan for growing value with them, but also that if we were to transact on companies, no matter what they are, if we take them at the right point in the cycle.

事實上，可能會出現有趣且有吸引力的機會，並且我們可能希望在我們擁有的資本框架內執行這些機會。因此，讓我不要具體評論您提到的那家公司，但它 - 但我們總是會考慮一系列選項。我們希望確保它們不僅在戰略上適合而且我們擁有——如果我們抓住這些機會，我們有一個與他們一起增加價值的長期戰略計劃，而且如果我們要與公司進行交易，無論它們是什麼，如果我們在周期中的正確位置使用它們。

Thanks, Ben. And Dan, may we have the next question?

謝謝，本。丹，我們可以問下一個問題嗎？

The next question is from Matt Lofting at JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Matt Lofting。

Two quick ones, if I could, please. First, following up on the earlier points around Integrated Gas and the trading optimization contribution in the third quarter. Can you just talk a bit about the extent to which legacy derivative and hedging structures that were put on prior to the market developments post-Russia, Ukraine contributed to the third quarter and the extent to which, if they have had an adverse effect, particularly in the context of JKM, TTF movements, et cetera, that those structures roll off as we move into 4Q and 2023 and therefore, become more quarter-specific as opposed to recurring in nature?

兩個快點，如果可以的話，請。首先，跟進之前關於綜合氣體和第三季度交易優化貢獻的觀點。您能否談談在俄羅斯、烏克蘭之後市場發展之前實施的傳統衍生品和對沖結構對第三季度的貢獻程度，以及如果它們產生不利影響的程度，特別是在 JKM、TTF 運動等的背景下，隨著我們進入第四季度和 2023 年，這些結構會滾落，因此變得更加特定於季度而不是在本質上重複出現？

And then second, in the Upstream business, I think you highlighted the strength this morning of the contribution from some of the Deepwater businesses across E&P. If you could elaborate on that, on the portions of the portfolio that are functioning particularly well in this environment.

其次，在上游業務中，我認為您今天上午強調了勘探與生產中一些深水業務的貢獻。如果你能詳細說明一下，那麼投資組合中在這種環境下運行得特別好的部分。

Excellent. Okay. With respect to the first one, you're completely right, Matt. Hedges tend to be put on over a period of time and often well in advance, as you can imagine. We don't tend to hedge by cargo. We tend to hedge by portfolio when you're at our size and particularly by seasons. So you're right, a lot of these are very historical. And therefore, yes, there have been considerable dislocations, which is exactly what you're leading to, in recent months. So indeed, those changes have come through.

出色的。好的。關於第一個，你是完全正確的，馬特。正如您可以想像的那樣，對沖往往會在一段時間內進行，而且通常是提前進行的。我們不傾向於通過貨物進行套期保值。當您處於我們的規模時，尤其是按季節，我們傾向於按投資組合對沖。所以你是對的，其中很多都是非常具有歷史意義的。因此，是的，最近幾個月出現了相當大的錯位，這正是你所導致的。事實上，這些變化已經發生。

What you also see, of course, is they will roll off at different periods in time, and that's also what we're seeing as well. So I won't do predictions into the future. You secondly asked around Upstream and I'll ask Ben to build on me if he doesn't mind as well. Just our Upstream business has had a fabulous quarter. As you say, $5.9 billion of earnings is exceptional. And I think it's -- I'm trying to remember, I think this the highest earnings in the last 12 years, so it's really doing well. We talked about Gulf of Mexico earlier as being high-value, but also performing really well. And just to talk, I mean, its reliability is top quartile. We're hitting 96% in the Gulf of Mexico, and those are the sources of elements, which are driving our underlying business.

當然，您還看到的是它們會在不同的時間段滾動，這也是我們所看到的。所以我不會對未來進行預測。其次，您詢問了上游，如果 Ben 也不介意，我會請 Ben 以我為基礎。只是我們的上游業務有一個神話般的季度。正如你所說，59 億美元的收入非常出色。而且我認為這是 - 我試圖記住，我認為這是過去 12 年來的最高收益，所以它確實做得很好。我們之前談到墨西哥灣是高價值的，但表現也非常好。只是說說而已，我的意思是，它的可靠性是前四分之一。我們在墨西哥灣達到了 96%，這些是推動我們基礎業務的元素的來源。

And that's fair. I think it -- our entire portfolio, of course, over the last few years has been high-graded significantly. So therefore, many parts or all parts of the portfolio are doing well and certainly also in today's environment. I must say though that there is also a storage play that has done particularly well for us in this quarter, and that is contributing to the strong effects that we are seeing at the moment.

這是公平的。我認為它 - 當然，在過去幾年中，我們的整個投資組合都得到了很高的評價。因此，投資組合的許多部分或所有部分都表現良好，當然在今天的環境中也是如此。我必須說，本季度還有一項存儲業務對我們來說做得特別好，這有助於我們目前看到的強大影響。

A one-off. Thank you. And Dan, may we have the next one?

一次性的。謝謝你。丹，我們可以有下一個嗎？

The next question is from Martijn Rats at Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Martijn Rats。

And Ben, I would say, congratulations with a very eventful sort of 9 years. And thanks for taking all our questions so patiently over that period. You've been very helpful with all the time you've given to us. I wanted to ask you 2 things. First of all, sort of very briefly on the dividend. I know many questions have already been asked, but I think this 1 is suitably different, built a bit on what Lucas has said.

我想說的是，Ben 恭喜他度過了非常多事的 9 年。感謝您在那段時間如此耐心地回答我們所有的問題。您給我們的所有時間都非常有幫助。我想問你兩件事。首先，非常簡要地介紹一下股息。我知道已經問了很多問題，但我認為這個 1 是適當的不同，建立在盧卡斯所說的一些基礎上。

So the dividend increase of 15% is sort of 4% the underlying rate plus 2% being the shares bought back over the last 4 quarters. Broadly, that is the math. And I was wondering if you would suggest to us that, that is broadly a framework that we could use to think about dividend growth going forward? Can we use this as some sort of a mechanism or a framework to do dividend forecasting sort of in years ahead?

因此，15% 的股息增長相當於基礎利率的 4% 加上過去 4 個季度回購的股票的 2%。從廣義上講，這就是數學。我想知道你是否會向我們建議，這是一個廣泛的框架，我們可以用來考慮未來的股息增長？我們可以將其用作某種機製或框架來進行未來幾年的股息預測嗎？

And the second thing I wanted to ask relates to the Chemicals business. Of course, not the biggest 1 in your portfolio, but it seems to be sort of struggling, somewhat overweight, perhaps Europe and Asia, maybe a bit underweight, U.S. I was wondering if you would be considering any sort of structural changes to improve the profitability there, given what we've recently seen.

我想問的第二件事與化學品業務有關。當然，不是你投資組合中最大的 1，但它似乎有點掙扎，有點超重，也許歐洲和亞洲，也許有點低配，美國。我想知道你是否會考慮任何形式的結構性變化來改善鑑於我們最近看到的情況，那裡的盈利能力。

Excellent. Thanks, Martijn. Ben, I'm definitely passing Chemicals to you, given your expertise. On the first one, Martijn, indeed. So indeed, the way to calculate it, as you say, is we're basically saying we intend, subject to Board, 15% in the Q4 results. How does that play out? 4% is the progressive. And then if I were to look at where am I without Permian is 7% to 8%. Where am I with Permian brings me up to the 10% so indeed. So it's -- that's how the numbers come together as you add them up.

出色的。謝謝，馬丁。本，鑑於你的專業知識，我肯定會把化學品傳給你。在第一個，Martijn，確實。所以實際上，正如你所說，計算它的方法是，我們基本上是說我們打算在第四季度的結果中佔 15%，這取決於董事會。怎麼玩？ 4%是進步的。然後如果我要看看沒有二疊紀的我在哪裡是 7% 到 8%。我在哪裡與二疊紀確實使我達到了 10%。所以它 - 這就是當你把它們加起來時數字如何組合在一起的。

You asked specifically, is this something you can predict for the future? I think what I would say is that we've been very clear that this created capacity for this year, and we still view buybacks very favorably. But we are going to have a combination of both going forward.

你特別問，這是你可以預測未來的事情嗎？我想我想說的是，我們已經非常清楚這為今年創造了產能，我們仍然非常看好回購。但我們將在未來將兩者結合起來。

And in the same way, as we're going to remain disciplined on CapEx, you should expect to see us disciplined in terms of shareholder return, and we will use the balance between them, because this is about making sure you've got the balance sheet, compelling returns, but also the ability to invest into the future. So I will, at that point, pass to you.

同樣，由於我們將在資本支出方面保持自律，您應該期望看到我們在股東回報方面自律，我們將利用它們之間的平衡，因為這是為了確保您擁有資產負債表，令人信服的回報，以及投資未來的能力。所以我會，在這一點上，傳遞給你。

Yes. Thanks very much. And thank you very much for your comments, Martijn. I always enjoyed taking your questions and many of the other questions as well. On Chemicals, well, it's a cyclical business, yes? We all know this. And of course, as we can see, the cycles can be quite severe and can be also quite long-lasting. The last time, of course, we saw something closely like this was 2008, 2009. And this looks to be, indeed, as bad.

是的。非常感謝。非常感謝您的評論，Martijn。我一直很喜歡回答你的問題以及其他許多問題。在化學品方面，嗯，這是一個週期性的業務，是嗎？我們都知道這一點。當然，正如我們所看到的，週期可能非常嚴重，也可能非常持久。當然，上一次我們看到類似的情況是 2008 年、2009 年。這看起來確實很糟糕。

It will recover though. And over the cycle, what we see, that our Chemical business has been performing very well, strong double-digit returns. But having said that, I do think that indeed, we need to change the makeup of our portfolio. We are much more commodity-exposed, so about 80% of our volumes are commodity volumes, either base Chemicals or they are commoditized intermediates like styrene, MEG, et cetera.

不過會恢復的。在整個週期中，我們看到，我們的化工業務表現非常好，強勁的兩位數回報。但話雖如此，我確實認為我們確實需要改變我們投資組合的構成。我們更多地接觸商品，因此我們大約 80% 的交易量是商品交易量，要么是基礎化學品，要么是商品化中間體，如苯乙烯、MEG 等。

Now we have been working on that. So today, we are in the process of starting up a very large polyethylene plant in Pennsylvania that will give us a different type of exposure to different markets, different margins and hopefully, also with it, of course, a shift to the Americas, which look to be more structurally advantaged, certainly now and maybe for some years to come. But that, of course, is going to be a process that will take years.

現在我們一直在努力。所以今天，我們正在賓夕法尼亞州開辦一家非常大的聚乙烯工廠，這將使我們對不同的市場、不同的利潤有不同的敞口，當然，希望也隨之轉向美洲，看起來在結構上更有優勢，當然是現在，也許在未來幾年。當然，這將是一個需要數年時間的過程。

Remember, conceiving of the idea of the Pennsylvania Chemicals complex when I was in Chemicals, and here we are so many years later, starting it up. So yes, indeed, we are looking at changing the makeup of the portfolio. But at the same time, we also have to bear in mind that this business is cyclical. And from time to time, you will enjoy it very much, and from time to time, it's going to be tough, like it is today.

請記住，當我在化工行業時，我就想到了賓夕法尼亞化工綜合體的想法，而多年後我們在這裡，開始了它。所以是的，確實，我們正在考慮改變投資組合的構成。但同時，我們也必須記住，這項業務是周期性的。有時，你會非常享受它，有時，它會變得很艱難，就像今天一樣。

Thank you, Ben. Dan, may we have the next one, please?

謝謝你，本。丹，請給我們下一個好嗎？

The next question is from Peter Low at Redburn.

下一個問題來自 Redburn 的 Peter Low。

The first 1 is on the working capital again. So over the last 8 quarters, there's been over $26 billion flow out of the business. Now I appreciate there will be a lot of different factors behind that. But at a high level, should we assume that as commodity prices fall, a large chunk of that should flow back in? Or is it a more structural increase driven by some changes to the business mix?

第一個是營運資金。因此，在過去的 8 個季度中，有超過 260 億美元的業務流出。現在我明白這背後會有很多不同的因素。但在較高的水平上，我們是否應該假設隨著商品價格下跌，其中很大一部分應該回流？還是由於業務組合的一些變化而帶來的結構性增長？

And the second 1 was just another clarification on Upstream. Can you quantify the contribution from the noncash provision releases and gains on storage transfer effects? I'm trying to understand whether it's within the $1.3 billion to $1.7 billion range you guided to in the trading statement. I just wanted to kind of better understand why that result was so much stronger than consensus.

第二個 1 只是對上游的另一個澄清。您能否量化非現金撥備釋放的貢獻和對存儲轉移影響的收益？我試圖了解它是否在您在交易聲明中指導的 13 億至 17 億美元範圍內。我只是想更好地理解為什麼這個結果比共識強大得多。

Excellent. Thanks, Peter. Two great questions. So on the first one with respect to working capital specifically, you ask, is it structural? Well, no. So what do we expect to see? So our working capital was at $4.2 billion, as you saw coming through, and it varies across the businesses. But if I look at it at the group level, I would always look at -- the frame I look at working capital is my initial margin. I then look at my inventory and then I'm looking at, effectively, the accounts receivable, accounts payable.

出色的。謝謝，彼得。兩個很好的問題。所以關於第一個關於營運資金的問題，你問，它是結構性的嗎？嗯，不。那麼我們期望看到什麼？因此，正如您所看到的，我們的營運資金為 42 億美元，並且因業務而異。但如果我從集團層面來看，我總是會看——我看待營運資金的框架是我的初始利潤。然後我查看我的庫存，然後我有效地查看應收賬款和應付賬款。

So if I split it across there, now you mentioned the fact that if prices are coming down, should you see us coming back? On that inventory, we did see it coming back for our Downstream business. So we saw it in Chemicals and we saw it in refining, effectively, or in product side of things. But what we saw specifically was that we built a storage position in our Renewables and Energy Solutions business. So we built up storage, and we talked about it earlier, some $3 billion there. So you saw that those 2, in effect, almost offset each other.

所以如果我把它分開，現在你提到如果價格下降，你會看到我們回來嗎？在該庫存上，我們確實看到它在我們的下游業務中回歸。所以我們在化學品中看到了它，我們在精煉、有效或產品方面看到了它。但我們具體看到的是，我們在可再生能源和能源解決方案業務中建立了存儲地位。所以我們建立了存儲，我們之前談到過，大約有 30 億美元。所以你看到這兩個，實際上，幾乎相互抵消。

Initial margin we had, as you would expect, you made the point, high prices, the margining and that comes through. And of course, on our accounts receivable and our accounts payable, we saw that as an outflow because, of course, the value came down in terms of the receivables. So that's where it played out. So the difference of what was intuitive, I think, for many was the fact that we were building a storage position in the quarter, because of energy security, because of where we believe markets may go. That was your first one.

正如您所期望的那樣，我們有初始保證金，您說明了這一點，高價格，保證金，並且通過了。當然，對於我們的應收賬款和應付賬款，我們將其視為流出，因為當然，應收賬款的價值下降了。所以這就是它發揮作用的地方。因此，我認為，對於許多人來說，直觀的區別在於，我們在本季度建立了一個存儲位置，因為能源安全，因為我們認為市場可能會走向何方。那是你的第一個。

And with respect to your second one, sorry, just before I forget it, it was around the noncash provision. You were correct that it remained within the range of what we guided to in the QUN, so -- the Quarterly Update Note. Thank you. Dan, may we have the second -- the next question please? Sorry.

關於你的第二個，對不起，就在我忘記之前，它是圍繞非現金條款的。你是對的，它保持在我們在 QUN 中所指導的範圍內，所以 - 季度更新說明。謝謝你。丹，我們可以問第二個——下一個問題嗎？對不起。

The next question is from Henri Patricot at UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Henri Patricot。

Congratulations, Sinead and Ben, I wish you all the best in the future as well. I have 2 questions on the Refining business. We're seeing extremely high Refining margins at the moment. I was wondering if you can share your views on what you expect to see over the next few months, quite a few moving parts with the EU embargo, potentially higher Chinese exports, et cetera.

祝賀你，Sinead 和 Ben，我也祝你們未來一切順利。我有 2 個關於煉油業務的問題。目前，我們看到煉油利潤率極高。我想知道你能否分享你對未來幾個月的預期、歐盟禁運的許多活動部分、中國出口可能增加等方面的看法。

And secondly, just in terms of your own ability to capture these high margins. I mean, you're guiding to a fairly high utilization in the fourth quarter in the 90s. So it looks like you should be in a good position to capture the high margins. But is there anything to remind as we look at the fourth quarter Refining performance?

其次，就您自己獲得這些高利潤的能力而言。我的意思是，您正在指導 90 年代第四季度的相當高的利用率。所以看起來你應該處於一個很好的位置來獲得高利潤。但是，當我們查看第四季度煉油業績時，有什麼要提醒的嗎？

Ben, would you mind if I pass Refining to you?

本，你介意我把煉製傳給你嗎？

I expected it anyway, Sinead. Thank you very much, Henri, for your nice remarks. I think Refining is going to be very difficult to get right under the best of circumstances. If you look at slide pack that we put out, see what the Refining margins have done, that's reduced by a factor 2 or 50% from last quarter to this. They're still high compared to historic numbers, and who knows where they will go next.

無論如何，我期待它，Sinead。非常感謝亨利，你的好話。我認為，在最好的情況下，精煉將非常困難。如果你看一下我們推出的幻燈片包，看看煉油利潤率做了什麼，從上一季度到現在，這減少了 2 倍或 50%。與歷史數字相比，它們仍然很高，誰知道他們下一步會去哪裡。

There are a number of things to consider. So first of all, as the sanctions further tighten in the -- at the end of the year, I think we will probably see more pressure on getting products and therefore, refinery capacity in Russia excluded from global markets. On the other hand, what we are also seeing is China taking more advantage of their refining system to now harvest value within international markets. How that dynamic will play out, I think, is very difficult to get an exact read of.

有很多事情需要考慮。因此，首先，隨著制裁在年底進一步收緊，我認為我們可能會看到獲得產品的更大壓力，因此俄羅斯的煉油能力將被排除在全球市場之外。另一方面，我們還看到中國正在更多地利用他們的煉油系統來在國際市場上收穫價值。我認為，這種動態將如何發揮作用很難準確解讀。

What I do believe, though, in the long run, is that Refining is going to be structurally long. And therefore, what you have seen us do is to really concentrate our footprint to, first of all, fewer refineries, but then moreover, turn the refineries into integrated energy and chemical parks so that indeed, we are still being exposed to the Refining margin, but we're, at the same time, also using these as springboards for growth, diversification of products. And of course, also, as the platform upon which we will build our low-carbon fuels business, our hydrogen business, et cetera, et cetera. But we are not in the Refining business in the long run to enjoy a very good Refining margin. I do think these years are behind us.

不過，我確實相信，從長遠來看，煉油在結構上將是長期的。因此，您看到我們所做的就是真正將我們的足跡集中在首先減少煉油廠，然後再將煉油廠轉變為綜合能源和化工園區，這樣實際上我們仍然處於煉油利潤率之下，但與此同時，我們也將這些作為增長和產品多樣化的跳板。當然，作為我們建立低碳燃料業務、氫業務等的平台，也是如此。但從長遠來看，我們並不是在煉油業務中享受到非常好的煉油利潤。我確實認為這些年已經過去了。

Thank you, Ben. Dan, may we have the next one, please?

謝謝你，本。丹，請給我們下一個好嗎？

The next question is from Christopher Kuplent at Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Christopher Kuplent。

Ben, I'm sure you're going to miss all of us and the challenges that you've managed through, but I did want to finish by asking you a very open question. What do you think is the biggest challenge that you're leaving on the desk of your successor? Anything -- a very open question.

Ben，我相信你會想念我們所有人以及你所克服的挑戰，但我確實想通過問你一個非常開放的問題來結束。您認為您留給繼任者的最大挑戰是什麼？任何事情——一個非常開放的問題。

And a bit more detailed one perhaps for you, Sinead. Could you give us an indication of your assessment of the gap, which I think is quite considerable, close to $10 billion between your tax charge and what actually flows through your cash flow payment? Any help in terms of outlook for Q4 and beyond would be much, much appreciated.

Sinead，也許對你來說更詳細一點。你能否告訴我們你對差距的評估，我認為這個差距相當大，在你的稅費和實際通過你的現金流支付之間流動的金額之間接近 100 億美元？對於第四季度及以後的展望方面的任何幫助將非常非常感謝。

The first one's definitely yours.

第一個絕對是你的。

But I can't dodge that one, can I? And Christopher, thank you very much for your very nice words. It -- I will miss you but it -- but I hope that there will still be opportunities to meet up or come across each other. Well, where to start with the biggest challenges for a while. It's not as if I designed a few for him to take care of. I think the world is presenting all of us in the industry with tremendous challenges.

但我躲不過那個，不是嗎？克里斯托弗，非常感謝你的好話。它——我會想念你，但它——但我希望仍有機會見面或相遇。好吧，從哪裡開始一段時間以來最大的挑戰。又不是我設計了幾個給他照顧。我認為這個世界正在給我們這個行業的所有人帶來巨大的挑戰。

And I basically come back to the energy trilemma. How are we going to balance, on the one hand, making energy more sustainable, but also making it affordable or keeping it as affordable and, at the same time, securing supply? And of course, if you peel that onion back, there are so many challenges in there already that have to be managed, with different expectations, quite often, not exactly compatible with each other. And navigating that, I think, will be anybody's challenge in the industry, including wells.

我基本上回到了能源三難困境。我們將如何平衡，一方面，使能源更可持續，同時使其負擔得起或保持其負擔得起，同時確保供應？當然，如果你把洋蔥剝開，那裡已經有很多挑戰需要管理，有不同的期望，很多時候，彼此並不完全兼容。我認為，駕馭這一點將是該行業任何人的挑戰，包括油井。

The other thing more specifically, I think, is the operationalization of Powering Progress strategy. Wael, of course, has been part and the member, a core member of conceiving and designing that strategy, I think we are well on our way to implementing the strategy. You can see us making progress, whether this is indeed a financial turnaround of the company but also the carbon turnaround and the focus that we have on supplying energy and protecting nature.

我認為另一件更具體的事情是 Powering Progress 戰略的實施。當然，Wael 一直是其中的一員，並且是構想和設計該戰略的核心成員，我認為我們正在順利實施該戰略。你可以看到我們正在取得進展，這是否確實是公司的財務轉機，也是碳轉機以及我們對供應能源和保護自然的關注。

But of course, the operationalization of that strategy will be very much further done on his watch. Now the good news is, Wael is incredibly smart. He is incredibly competitive. He has a laser-sharp focus on value. So I consider myself lucky being able to hand over this challenge to Wael, who I think will be doing a fantastic job in the operationalization of our Powering Progress strategy. But indeed, navigating the trilemma, I think, will be his biggest challenge.

但當然，該戰略的實施將在他的領導下進一步完成。現在好消息是，Wael 非常聰明。他具有令人難以置信的競爭力。他非常關注價值。因此，我認為自己很幸運能夠將這一挑戰交給 Wael，我認為他將在實施我們的 Powering Progress 戰略方面做得非常出色。但事實上，我認為，駕馭三難困境將是他最大的挑戰。

Indeed. Thank you, Ben. I was quite intrigued to hear the answer to that one myself. The second 1 is very specific, Christopher. So you're asking around really the difference between the tax charge that you're seeing come through on the tax paid. You're seeing a difference of around about $2.2 billion. And this quarter, that comes through in the difference which is timing. As you know, the way it plays out typically is that we see the -- hitting in terms of the charge coming through the books, depending on the price that you're paying at that point in time, but actual -- the payment can go out and different countries have very different structures. Could be once a year, it can be quarterly, many things like that.

的確。謝謝你，本。我很想親自聽到這個問題的答案。第二個 1 非常具體，克里斯托弗。因此，您實際上是在詢問您所看到的稅費與已繳稅款之間的差異。您看到的差異約為 22 億美元。而本季度，這體現在時間上的差異上。如您所知，它通常的表現方式是，我們看到 - 根據您當時支付的價格，通過賬簿收取費用，但實際 - 付款可以走出去，不同的國家有非常不同的結構。可以是一年一次，也可以是每季度一次，諸如此類。

So $2.2 billion is the difference at the moment. We saw about $2.1 billion last quarter as well. And the differences are typically due to the deferred tax movements, but also the phasing of it as well. So I would say, yes, you are seeing an increasing tax paid coming through, which is natural with the prices the way they are at the moment as well. Thank you. And Dan, may we have another question, please?

因此，目前的差異是 22 億美元。上個季度我們也看到了大約 21 億美元。差異通常是由於遞延稅的變動，但也是分階段的。所以我會說，是的，你會看到越來越多的稅收正在通過，這對於目前的價格來說也是很自然的。謝謝你。丹，請問我們還有一個問題嗎？

The next question is from Jason Gabelman at Cowen.

下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Jason Gabelman。

Maybe just 1 clarification first. On the dividend, you typically announce a raise in the first quarter. Is that still expected for this upcoming first quarter? And then maybe I'll ask 2 other questions quickly. On LNG, there's been, since last year, maybe lower output coming out of your portfolio. That's limited the ability to capture spot prices. Is that still ongoing? Is that something that affected 3Q with Prelude down? Just trying to understand what the segment did in 3Q versus the actual earnings capacity.

也許只是先澄清一下。在股息方面，您通常會在第一季度宣布加薪。對於即將到來的第一季度，這仍然是預期的嗎？然後也許我會很快問另外兩個問題。在液化天然氣方面，自去年以來，您的投資組合可能會出現較低的產量。這限制了捕捉現貨價格的能力。這還在進行中嗎？這是否影響了 Prelude 的 3Q？只是想了解該部門在第三季度的表現與實際盈利能力的對比。

And then, Ben, given this is your last call, I do want to ask kind of an open-ended question. Europe, clearly facing its own energy crisis. There have been a lot of proposals suggested out there. You said that the crisis maybe will last, not only this winter but into next one. Are there any easy fixes, short-term government intervention that could be done to help alleviate some of the pressure we're seeing on prices and which you expect to persist well into next year?

然後，本，鑑於這是你的最後一次電話，我確實想問一個開放式問題。歐洲，顯然面臨著自己的能源危機。那裡提出了很多建議。你說這場危機可能會持續下去，不僅是今年冬天，還會延續到下一個冬天。是否有任何簡單的解決方法，短期政府乾預可以幫助緩解我們看到的價格壓力，您預計這種壓力會持續到明年？

Thanks, Jason. Last one definitely to you, Ben. I'll take the first 2 quickly. With respect to the dividend, you're right. We typically announce that with our Q4 results, and then you see the payment coming around by May. What we have done now is to say that actually, we will make sure we announce it actually in Q4 and we will pay it in March. So to be clear, it is not additional. The 4% is already in the 15%. So I need to make that very clear out there.

謝謝，傑森。最後一個絕對是給你的，本。我會盡快拿前2個。關於股息，你是對的。我們通常會在第四季度的結果中宣布這一點，然後您會看到付款在 5 月份到來。我們現在所做的就是說，實際上，我們將確保我們在第四季度真正宣布它，我們將在 3 月份支付它。所以要清楚，它不是額外的。 4% 已經在 15% 中。所以我需要在外面說得很清楚。

In terms of LNG, in terms of lower output, as you asked, what we're seeing, of course, was that in the third quarter, we did have Prelude down due to the industrial action. That is -- came to an end just before the end of the quarter to those cargoes. We're not there and we hope to see them now. Of course, we're in the pitstop at the moment, which was always anticipated and expected. Just the normal maintenance that has to be done, but then we expect to have it up and running as well. So I'll pause there. Ben?

就液化天然氣而言，就產量下降而言，正如你所問的，我們當然看到的是，在第三季度，由於工業行動，我們確實讓 Prelude 下降。那就是 - 在這些貨物的季度結束前結束。我們不在那裡，我們希望現在就看到他們。當然，我們目前正處於進站狀態，這一直是預料之中的。只是必須完成的正常維護，但我們希望它也能啟動並運行。所以我會停在那裡。本?

Yes. Thanks very much, Jason. I wish I could give you a very simple one-liner open answer to your question. But there isn't really. I think this is a very difficult position we find ourselves in, in Europe. It's not necessarily a global picture, of course, but it's a European challenge. Will we manage to solve this? Yes, we will. But it won't be without pain and it won't be easy.

是的。非常感謝，傑森。我希望我能給你一個非常簡單的單行開放式回答你的問題。但真的沒有。我認為這是我們在歐洲發現的一個非常困難的位置。當然，這不一定是全球性的，但它是歐洲的挑戰。我們會設法解決這個問題嗎？是的，我們會。但這不會沒有痛苦，也不會很容易。

So very simply put, if you have to deal with such a significant drop away of supply of natural gas coming out of Russia, there's only a few things that you can do, of course, to help offset it. First of all, it is responding with reducing demand, and I think that is happening quite effectively.

簡而言之，如果您必須應對來自俄羅斯的天然氣供應大幅下降，您當然可以做一些事情來幫助抵消它。首先，它以減少需求作為回應，我認為這正在發生相當有效的事情。

If you have seen how much already, in Europe, demand has been reduced, that's quite encouraging. Some of it has to do with reasonably warm weather still. Some of it has to do with turning down industrial activity, which is not a great way to reduce demand, but there is definitely a very strong response.

如果您已經看到歐洲的需求已經減少了多少，那是非常令人鼓舞的。其中一些與仍然相當溫暖的天氣有關。其中一些與拒絕工業活動有關，這不是減少需求的好方法，但肯定會有非常強烈的反應。

The other thing, of course, is to bring on more supply. And this is exactly where we come in, in addition, by the way, to reducing demand. We have reduced demand very significantly in our operations as well. But bringing more gas into Europe, we have doubled the amount of gas LNG coming into Europe already. Here in the U.K., it's 3x as much compared to the last 12 months or the 12 months before that.

當然，另一件事是增加供應。這正是我們進入的地方，順便說一句，減少需求。我們也大大減少了運營中的需求。但是將更多的天然氣引入歐洲，我們已經將進入歐洲的天然氣液化天然氣數量增加了一倍。在英國，這是過去 12 個月或之前 12 個月的 3 倍。

And of course, we are bringing on, where we can, short-term projects like, for instance, the North Sea project, Pierce. We are working on Jackdaw. We are looking here and there what we can do with sort of near-field tiebacks, et cetera, to bring new supply on that. All these things will have to be done and will bring some form of relief.

當然，我們會在力所能及的範圍內實施短期項目，例如北海項目 Pierce。我們正在研究寒鴉。我們正在到處尋找我們可以用近場回接等做些什麼，以帶來新的供應。所有這些事情都必須完成，並會帶來某種形式的解脫。

And then finally, what we also have to do is accelerate the energy transition. At the moment, what we are seeing out of necessity almost, there's a certain amount of gas to coal switching and we have to reverse that again. We have to make sure that we bring on more renewable capacity. That's not going to be a short-term focus either.

最後，我們還必須做的是加速能源轉型。目前，我們幾乎不得不看到，有一定數量的天然氣轉煤，我們必須再次扭轉這種局面。我們必須確保我們帶來更多的可再生能源。這也不會成為短期關注點。

But this better be the wake-up call for policymakers to see whether we can accelerate permitting processes when we can do other things to award contracts just to make sure that we are seeing an effect over the next few years. But a short-term fix, I'm afraid, is not going to be available other than demand response.

但這最好是為政策制定者敲響警鐘，看看我們是否可以加快許可流程，當我們可以做其他事情來授予合同以確保我們在未來幾年看到效果時。但恐怕除了需求響應之外，沒有短期的解決辦法。

Thank you, Ben. And Dan, I suspect we have time for 2 more questions. So let's take 1 now, please.

謝謝你，本。丹，我懷疑我們還有時間再回答 2 個問題。所以，讓我們現在取 1，拜託。

So the next question is from Alastair Syme at Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗的 Alastair Syme。

Sinead, for you, the current spot gas prices in Europe have collapsed, as Ben just mentioned. I was wondering if that persisted through fourth quarter. Would that have an impact on the inventory position that you've built, i.e., is the inventory sold forward or not is really the question.

Sinead，對你來說，正如 Ben 剛剛提到的，目前歐洲的現貨天然氣價格已經暴跌。我想知道這是否會持續到第四季度。這會對您建立的庫存狀況產生影響，即庫存是否遠期銷售確實是個問題。

And then Ben, for you, I think one of the very positive aspects that I think you've brought to Shell and probably to factor the industry has been the way in which you sort of pushed for a reform management compensation. And you yourself are tied to metrics that I think, compared Shell's financial performance to market performance to your global peers.

然後本，對你來說，我認為你給殼牌帶來的非常積極的方面之一，可能是考慮到這個行業，你推動改革管理薪酬的方式。我認為，您自己與殼牌的財務業績與市場業績與您的全球同行進行比較的指標息息相關。

And I appreciate that you said it's sort of a U.S. domicile is off the cards. But I made the observation that unfortunately for you, 2 of those global peers at the U.S. have had pretty spectacular market performance. And that really means that your targets have become quite difficult to hit.

我很欣賞你說它有點像美國的住所是不可能的。但我觀察到，不幸的是，美國的全球同行中有 2 家的市場表現相當出色。這確實意味著您的目標變得非常難以命中。

So my question to you is as you leave the helm here at Shell, your perspective on whether Shell -- who you think shall compete on a level playing field versus all of the industry peers and where the change in the peer group might make your successor better equipped to make investment decisions in the future direction of the company.

所以我要問你的問題是，當你離開殼牌的掌舵人時，你對殼牌是否——你認為誰應該在公平的競爭環境中與所有行業同行競爭，以及同行群體的變化可能會成為你的繼任者——的看法更好地為公司未來的發展方向做出投資決策。

You take the first...

你拿第一...

Two very different questions. First one, very short, Alastair. Yes, we are hedged, which is really the underlying question you're asking me there with respect to the majority of the portfolio in storage at the moment. Ben?

兩個非常不同的問題。第一個，很短，阿拉斯泰爾。是的，我們被對沖了，這確實是您就目前存儲的大部分投資組合向我提出的根本問題。本?

Yes, do we compete at the same level as U.S. peers? And I'm not entirely sure whether I heard your question correctly on compensation. But it -- but I think what you are seeing, if I take it a little bit more generally, Alastair, is that there is, indeed, a divergence in how the industry peer group is choosing its path and choosing its priorities.

是的，我們的競爭水平是否與美國同行相同？而且我不完全確定我是否正確聽到了您關於賠償的問題。但是，如果我更籠統地說，阿拉斯泰爾，我認為您所看到的是，在行業同行群體如何選擇其路徑和選擇其優先事項方面確實存在分歧。

I think we belong very firmly in the camp that believes that while there is still a very long-term need for oil and gas that we can tap into, that we can make value from, that we have to also develop responsibly for the benefit of the world. There's also more future value in the new forms of energy that have different fundamentals also how value gets created.

我認為我們非常堅定地屬於這樣一個陣營，即儘管我們仍然可以利用石油和天然氣的長期需求，我們可以從中創造價值，但我們也必須負責任地發展，以造福於世界。具有不同基本面的新能源形式還有更多的未來價值，以及價值的創造方式。

Value gets created closer to the customer, and value gets created by advantaged products rather than advantaged projects. So yes, we have chosen a somewhat different path. In the end, we'll have to see which path plays out well or which path will have more longevity. I think the path that we have chosen plays to our strength and that's why we have chosen it.

價值是在更貼近客戶的地方創造的，價值是由優勢產品而不是優勢項目創造的。所以是的，我們選擇了一條稍微不同的道路。最後，我們將不得不看看哪條路演得好，或者哪條路更長壽。我認為我們選擇的道路發揮了我們的優勢，這就是我們選擇它的原因。

I think the path we have chosen also plays more closely to who we think we are as a company identity and the people that make up that identity. So I'm very comfortable with what we are doing. It is, indeed, different. And it will probably take a few years, if not longer, to find out ultimately who is right. In the meantime, though, I am absolutely certain that we can also, in terms of underlying financial performance, take on our U.S. peer group, and very much look forward to doing that as well or at least watch how Wael is doing it.

我認為我們選擇的道路也更接近於我們認為我們作為公司身份的身份以及構成該身份的人。所以我對我們正在做的事情感到非常滿意。它確實是不同的。而且可能需要幾年甚至更長的時間才能最終找出誰是對的。不過，與此同時，我絕對確信，就潛在的財務業績而言，我們也可以與美國同行相提並論，並且非常期待這樣做，或者至少看看 Wael 是如何做到的。

Thank you, Ben. Dan, this is going to have to be our last one. I'm going to ask the IR team to go back to anyone else who has a question. My apologies. Over to you, Dan.

謝謝你，本。丹，這將是我們的最後一個。我將要求 IR 團隊回復任何有問題的人。我很抱歉。交給你了，丹。

So the final question is from Quirijn Mulder at ING Financial Markets.

最後一個問題來自 ING Financial Markets 的 Quirijn Mulder。

First of all, Ben, thanks for everything, and I would like also to congratulate you with your retirement in fact, or probably no time for it, but also your other half as well. And then with regard to the, let me say, the whole geopolitical situation and the behavior of the politicians, is there any reason to think that there will be some acceleration in the F&Ds next year and 2024 and further with regard to developed projects, especially in the North Sea or maybe on all places in the world because of this geopolitical situation? And I think you have already answered this question for -- with -- but maybe you can elaborate on that somewhat. That's my question.

首先，Ben，謝謝你所做的一切，我也想祝賀你退休，事實上，或者可能沒有時間，還有你的另一半。然後關於整個地緣政治局勢和政客的行為，是否有任何理由認為明年和 2024 年的 F&D 會有所加速，而對於已開發的項目，尤其是由於這種地緣政治局勢，在北海或世界各地？我想你已經回答了這個問題——用——但也許你可以稍微詳細說明一下。那是我的問題。

Thanks, Quirijn. Ben, I think -- oh, you're passing to me?

謝謝，奎里恩。本，我想——哦，你要傳給我？

No, no, no.

不不不。

I was going to say I was going to like you have the last word on the geopolitical aspect, if that's okay with you.

我本來想說我會喜歡你在地緣政治方面有最後的發言權，如果你同意的話。

Yes. Thank you very much. I think it will be very interesting to watch this, Quirijn. And as I've said in other fora as well, it's been a long time since we've had so many and so many good discussions with governments who, for a long time, of course, have taken certainly the availability, but maybe also the affordability of energy as a given and had a somewhat singular focus on 1 side of the trilemma, taking the 2 for granted.

是的。非常感謝。我認為觀看這個會很有趣，Quirijn。正如我在其他論壇上所說的那樣，我們已經很久沒有與政府進行過如此多的良好討論了能源的可負擔性作為給定的，並且在三難困境的一側有一些單一的關注，而將第二側視為理所當然。

I think we have a better discussion now. And I'm sure that will lead to new insights. And therefore, it may well be indeed that governments are going to significantly focus also on developing their own natural resources again. I think it is then for companies like us to decide whether that is where we want to play or whether we want to play our Upstream and Integrated Gas business in areas where we have established strength.

我想我們現在有更好的討論。我相信這會帶來新的見解。因此，政府很可能確實會再次將重點放在開發自己的自然資源上。我認為，由像我們這樣的公司來決定我們是否想在這方面發揮作用，或者我們是否想在我們已經建立實力的領域發揮我們的上游和綜合天然氣業務。

Maybe from the way I posed that question, you can probably deduce where the answer is going to be. But let's see how that plays out. There may, indeed, be new opportunities for us, for instance, in the North Sea. But let me also say that I will look at Europe much more as a play for us to demonstrate our energy transition capacity and credentials and find out how we're going to make money with many of our customers and counterparts here, particularly also as they need that -- even more so than they needed it before. But I'm sure that geopolitics, at the moment, will continue to shape the energy system for a long time to come and the other way around for that matter, Quirijn. But thank you very much for your question.

也許從我提出這個問題的方式，你大概可以推斷出答案會在哪裡。但讓我們看看結果如何。例如，在北海，我們可能確實有新的機會。但我還要說，我將把歐洲更多地看作是一場讓我們展示能源轉型能力和資質的遊戲，並了解我們將如何與這裡的許多客戶和同行一起賺錢，尤其是當他們需要它——甚至比他們以前更需要它。但我敢肯定，目前地緣政治將在未來很長一段時間內繼續塑造能源系統，反之亦然，Quirijn。但是非常感謝您的提問。

A nice way to end, Ben, thank you. Thank you to all of you for your questions and for joining us on this call, and we wish everyone a pleasant end of week. Thank you.

一個很好的結束方式，本，謝謝。感謝大家提出問題並加入我們的電話會議，我們祝大家週末愉快。謝謝你。