殼牌 (SHEL) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Shell's Fourth Quarter 2022 Financial Results Announcement. Shell's CEO, Wael Sawan; and CFO, Sinead Gorman, will present the results, then host a Q&A session. (Operator Instructions) We will now begin the presentation.

歡迎閱讀殼牌 2022 年第四季度財務業績公告。殼牌首席執行官 Wael Sawan；首席財務官 Sinead Gorman 將介紹結果，然後主持問答環節。 （操作員說明）我們現在開始演示。

Hi. I'm Wael Sawan, and I'm pleased to present to you for the first time as Shell's CEO. Today, alongside Sinead, we'll be presenting Shell's fourth quarter and full year results. I'd like to start by thanking Ben for his leadership over the last 9 years and for building the strong foundations that I now inherit. We have a world-class organization with exceptional people, a leading portfolio and the right strategy, all of which, I believe, position us very well for the future.

你好。我是 Wael Sawan，很高興第一次以殼牌公司首席執行官的身份向大家介紹。今天，我們將與 Sinead 一起展示殼牌的第四季度和全年業績。首先，我要感謝 Ben 在過去 9 年中的領導，以及他為我打下的堅實基礎。我們擁有世界一流的組織、優秀的人才、領先的投資組合和正確的戰略，我相信所有這些都為我們的未來奠定了良好的基礎。

2022 was a year in which energy security was front and center. The world mobilized. We saw policy progress with Fit for 55 in Europe and the introduction of the Inflation Reduction Act in the U.S. This is evidence of moving from ambition into action. Despite this progress, the energy system still faces huge challenges, and it continues to need bold, decisive actions by companies, governments and society at large. The world requires a secure supply of affordable energy and, at the same time, needs this energy to be increasingly low carbon to make the transition to a net-zero emissions energy system.

2022 年是能源安全成為重中之重的一年。世界動員起來。我們看到了歐洲 Fit for 55 的政策進展以及美國出台的《降低通脹法案》。這證明了雄心壯志正在付諸行動。儘管取得了這些進展，但能源系統仍面臨巨大挑戰，它繼續需要公司、政府和整個社會採取大膽、果斷的行動。世界需要負擔得起的能源的安全供應，同時，需要這種能源越來越低碳，以過渡到淨零排放能源系統。

In short, the world needs a balanced energy transition. Moving too fast by dismantling the current energy system before the new system is ready could worsen the situation. But moving too slowly could waste precious time and lose the momentum to build necessary solutions for low-carbon energy at scale. However, this transition will not be linear and will play out with different solutions needed at different times in different places across the world.

簡而言之，世界需要平衡的能源轉型。在新系統準備就緒之前拆除當前能源系統的速度過快可能會使情況惡化。但行動太慢可能會浪費寶貴的時間，並失去為大規模低碳能源建立必要解決方案的動力。然而，這種轉變不會是線性的，並且會在世界不同地方的不同時間以不同的解決方案發揮作用。

We at Shell will do our part. We will invest with discipline where we have differentiated capabilities. We aim to deliver the oil and gas that the world sorely needs today while also leveraging our unparalleled customer reach to develop the scalable and profitable low-carbon products that are urgently needed. Shell, under my leadership, will work to be the trusted partner of choice as the world's energy systems transition for our customers, governments and investors. By doing so, we aim to deliver competitive returns and create significant shareholder value over the coming years.

我們殼牌將儘自己的一份力量。我們將在我們具有差異化能力的領域進行紀律性投資。我們的目標是提供當今世界迫切需要的石油和天然氣，同時利用我們無與倫比的客戶群來開發迫切需要的可擴展且有利可圖的低碳產品。在我的領導下，殼牌將努力成為我們的客戶、政府和投資者在世界能源系統轉型過程中值得信賴的首選合作夥伴。通過這樣做，我們的目標是在未來幾年提供有競爭力的回報並創造可觀的股東價值。

Now let's look at our Q4 and full year results and financial framework. And for that, let me hand over to Sinead.

現在讓我們看看我們的第四季度和全年業績以及財務框架。為此，讓我交給 Sinead。

Thank you, Wael. By continuing to provide the energy our customers need, we have again produced strong results. Our safety performance was impressive. We made good progress in both personal and process safety year-on-year. We also made good progress on carbon. By the end of 2022, we were more than halfway towards achieving our target reduction of 50% by 2030 for Scope 1 and 2 emissions.

謝謝你，威爾。通過繼續為客戶提供所需的能源，我們再次取得了豐碩的成果。我們的安全表現令人印象深刻。我們在人身安全和過程安全方面同比取得了良好進展。我們在碳排放方面也取得了良好進展。到 2022 年底，我們已經實現了到 2030 年將範圍 1 和範圍 2 排放量減少 50% 的目標的一半以上。

Moving to our financial performance. Our adjusted earnings for the fourth quarter were $9.8 billion, with strong contributions from our Integrated Gas business, and we generated $22.4 billion of cash flow from operations, including a positive inflow of $10.4 billion of working capital.

轉到我們的財務業績。我們第四季度的調整後收益為 98 億美元，這得益於我們的綜合天然氣業務的強勁貢獻，我們從運營中產生了 224 億美元的現金流，包括 104 億美元的營運資金正流入。

These strong quarterly results helped us to achieve our highest ever full year results, with adjusted earnings of some $40 billion, more than double those of last year and around $17 billion higher than in 2014 when Brent prices were similar. We delivered a full year cash flow from operations of over $68 billion. And our organic free cash flow was around $48 billion.

這些強勁的季度業績幫助我們實現了有史以來最高的全年業績，調整後收益約為 400 億美元，是去年的兩倍多，比布倫特原油價格相似的 2014 年高出約 170 億美元。我們全年的運營現金流量超過 680 億美元。我們的有機自由現金流約為 480 億美元。

In 2022, our financials were impacted by additional taxes of around $2.3 billion. Of this, around $1.5 billion related to the EU solidarity contributions in the Netherlands, Germany and Italy, with cash outflows expected in 2023 and 2024. For the U.K. Energy Profits Levy, they impact us some $900 million.

2022 年，我們的財務狀況受到約 23 億美元額外稅收的影響。其中，約 15 億美元與歐盟在荷蘭、德國和意大利的團結捐款有關，預計 2023 年和 2024 年將出現現金流出。對於英國能源利潤稅，它們對我們產生了約 9 億美元的影響。

And now on to our financial framework. Our strong performance over the year has allowed us to enhance our distributions to shareholders. Our total shareholder distributions for the year were around $26 billion in excess of 35% of our 2022 cash flow from operations. And today, we have announced a new $4 billion share buyback program, which we expect to complete on time of our Q1 results announcement. As planned, we have also increased our dividend per share by 15% in the fourth quarter.

現在進入我們的財務框架。我們過去一年的強勁表現使我們能夠增加對股東的分配。我們全年的股東分配總額約為 260 億美元，超過 2022 年運營現金流的 35%。今天，我們宣布了一項新的 40 億美元股票回購計劃，我們預計該計劃將在第一季度業績公佈時按時完成。按照計劃，我們還在第四季度將每股股息提高了 15%。

Demonstrating discipline, our total cash capital expenditure for 2022 was $25 billion. And our outlook for 2023 is to maintain the $23 billion to $27 billion range, absorbing inflation. Our AA credit metrics ambition remains. We intend to continue to reduce our net debt as part of our robust financial framework. Finally, we will continue to target shareholder distributions of at least 20% to 30% of our cash flow from operations.

為了展示紀律，我們 2022 年的現金資本支出總額為 250 億美元。我們對 2023 年的展望是維持在 230 億美元至 270 億美元的範圍內，吸收通貨膨脹。我們的 AA 信用指標目標仍然存在。作為我們穩健的財務框架的一部分，我們打算繼續減少我們的淨債務。最後，我們將繼續將至少 20% 至 30% 的運營現金流分配給股東。

And now I'll hand back to Wael.

現在我將交還給 Wael。

As you've heard, our results for 2022 were strong in what was a volatile external environment. So what do we expect to see for 2023? The balance between global energy supply and demand remains extremely tight. Small changes on either side can have a significant impact. So volatility and uncertainty will continue to be the watch words in 2023. And how will Shell respond to that? With confidence in the direction of our strategy and the strength of our businesses and with discipline and a focus on value. We've worked hard over the years to strengthen our portfolio. We have a clear strategy empowering progress. Our focus now is to further operationalize and profitably deliver this strategy. We will build from our strengths, where we will prioritize value over volume while reducing carbon emissions.

如您所知，我們 2022 年的業績在動蕩的外部環境中表現強勁。那麼我們期望在 2023 年看到什麼？全球能源供需之間的平衡仍然極為緊張。任何一方的小變化都會產生重大影響。因此，波動性和不確定性將繼續成為 2023 年的關鍵詞。殼牌將如何應對？對我們的戰略方向和業務實力充滿信心，遵守紀律並註重價值。多年來，我們一直在努力加強我們的產品組合。我們有一個明確的戰略來推動進步。我們現在的重點是進一步實施並盈利地實施這一戰略。我們將利用我們的優勢，在減少碳排放的同時優先考慮價值而不是數量。

In Upstream, we will continue to proudly deliver energy that the world needs while driving strong results with our high-graded portfolio. In Integrated Gas, we will leverage and extend our world-leading LNG position. And in Marketing, we will build on the robust performance that we have seen in recent years.

在上游，我們將繼續自豪地提供世界所需的能源，同時通過我們的高級產品組合推動強勁的業績。在 Integrated Gas，我們將利用並擴大我們在 LNG 領域的世界領先地位。在市場營銷方面，我們將以近年來的強勁表現為基礎。

Performance will be top of mind. In every area of show, we aim to demonstrate progress at pace, not through words but through results, and we will continue to simplify our organization. One example of this is the more aligned and focused senior leadership structure that we announced earlier this week, with fewer rules and greater accountabilities, simplifying decision-making. By building on our strengths, focusing on performance and simplification, we intend to deliver compelling shareholder returns. Shell is already a great company, and we are determined to be a great investment. And to give you more insights on how we plan to do this, join us in New York for our Capital Markets Day in June. Thank you.

性能將是最重要的。在展會的每個領域，我們的目標是展示進度，不是通過文字而是通過結果，我們將繼續簡化我們的組織。這方面的一個例子是我們本週早些時候宣布的更加一致和專注的高級領導結構，規則更少，責任更大，簡化了決策。通過建立我們的優勢，專注於績效和簡化，我們打算提供令人信服的股東回報。殼牌已經是一家偉大的公司，我們決心成為一項偉大的投資。為了讓您更深入地了解我們計劃如何做到這一點，請加入我們在紐約參加 6 月份的資本市場日活動。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Thank you for joining us today. We hope that after watching the presentation, you've seen how we delivered strong results and how we intend to further operationalize our Powering Progress strategy. Today, Sinead and I will be answering your questions. And now please, could we have just 1 or 2 questions each, so everyone has the opportunity.

感謝您今天加入我們。我們希望在觀看演示後，您已經看到我們如何取得了出色的成果，以及我們打算如何進一步實施我們的 Powering Progress 戰略。今天，Sinead 和我將回答您的問題。現在請問，我們能否每個人只提出 1 或 2 個問題，這樣每個人都有機會。

And with that, could we have the first one, please, Dan?

有了這個，丹，我們可以要第一個嗎？

The first question is from Oswald Clint at Bernstein.

第一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的 Oswald Clint。

Thank you very much, and good afternoon to both of you, and welcome, Wael, to the Q&A interrogation. First one on capital investment, please. Spend levels looking into the year in line with your guidance. That's good. I think Sinead mentioned the guide is also absorbing inflation. So I was curious just how much and where you're experiencing those hot spots at the moment. It doesn't imply any activity has to be phased or pushed back. And I see within CapEx, Marketing steps up a bit this year. I assume that's Nature Energy. But I'm just looking at Marketing, wondering that the earnings there are still a little bit below trend. And does Asia reopening here really start to help the earnings trend within that Marketing business? That was the first question.

非常感謝你們，下午好，歡迎 Wael 參加問答環節。請先談談資本投資。根據您的指導，花費水平來展望這一年。那挺好的。我認為 Sinead 提到該指南也在吸收通貨膨脹。所以我很好奇你目前遇到這些熱點的程度和地點。這並不意味著必須分階段或推遲任何活動。我看到在資本支出中，營銷今年有所加強。我認為那是自然能源。但我只是在看市場營銷，想知道那裡的收益仍然略低於趨勢。亞洲在這裡重新開放真的開始有助於該營銷業務的盈利趨勢嗎？這是第一個問題。

Secondly, I'd love to ask about Integrated Gas. Wael, you mentioned volatility, uncertainty, your watch words for this year. We obviously had one hiccup last year around this business around hedging. So curious to know what the lessons learned were from 2022 and what's the hedging strategy for this year, if there's any changes needed in that approach.

其次，我想問一下 Integrated Gas。 Wael，你提到了波動性、不確定性，以及你今年的關鍵詞。顯然，去年我們圍繞對沖業務遇到了一個小問題。很想知道從 2022 年吸取的教訓是什麼，今年的對沖策略是什麼，如果這種方法需要任何改變的話。

Super. Oswald, thank you for that, and I appreciate being here for the interrogation. I guess I'll get used to it. Let me start by maybe giving you, Sinead, the floor on the Marketing question and maybe also the Integrated Gas learnings. I can reflect a bit on inflation in a moment.

極好的。奧斯瓦爾德，謝謝你，我很高興能來這裡接受審訊。我想我會習慣的。讓我首先給你，Sinead，關於營銷問題的發言權，也許還有綜合氣體學習。一會兒我可以反思一下通貨膨脹。

Certainly. So indeed, thank you for that, Oswald. So in terms of Marketing, so taking a step back for the moment. So 46 sites and regional sites, #1 in lubes, if anyone can make substantial returns out of this, it is us. We are well positioned for it. In saying that, I agree. $400 million of earnings for this quarter was a little bit disappointing. But if you take a step back and look at why.

當然。所以，真的，謝謝你，Oswald。因此，就營銷而言，暫時退後一步。因此，46 個站點和區域站點，在潤滑油中排名第一，如果有人可以從中獲得可觀的回報，那就是我們。我們已經做好了準備。這麼說，我同意。本季度 4 億美元的收益有點令人失望。但如果你退後一步，看看為什麼。

So what we're very comfortable with is seeing the fact that COVID has really not completely played out. So we're still seeing the impact of that. And you're right, you point out China as well. So we have great expectations with China opening up to be able to see that advance, and we've got green shoots already. And particularly in our lubes business, of course, we have a bit of a parachute effect. The normal where the high cost of the inputs, it takes a while for that to be passed through as well. So those combinations, including with our differentiated offerings, we're pretty confident in terms of how you will start to see some of our marketing results begin to improve.

因此，我們非常滿意的是看到 COVID 還沒有完全結束這一事實。所以我們仍然看到它的影響。你是對的，你也指出了中國。因此，我們對中國的開放寄予厚望，希望能夠看到這種進步，而且我們已經有了萌芽。當然，特別是在我們的潤滑油業務中，我們有一點降落傘效應。正常情況下，投入成本高，也需要一段時間才能通過。因此，這些組合，包括我們的差異化產品，我們非常有信心您將如何開始看到我們的一些營銷結果開始改善。

The second one was in relation to IG and the volatility around it. I'm just going to take a bit of an opportunity also to take that stuff back. We talked before about the fact that for IG, you really need -- or Integrated Gas, you need to look at it over a series of quarters, not one specific quarter. We use price risk management. Our hedging is price risk management, and we use it to look at the exposures we have across the period, not specifically quarter by quarter by quarter. Of course, that does mean that you see different things play out.

第二個與 IG 及其周圍的波動性有關。我也想藉此機會把那些東西拿回來。我們之前談到過這樣一個事實，即對於 IG，你真的需要 - 或者 Integrated Gas，你需要在一系列季度而不是一個特定季度中查看它。我們使用價格風險管理。我們的對沖是價格風險管理，我們用它來查看我們在整個期間的風險敞口，而不是逐季逐季。當然，這確實意味著你會看到不同的結果。

You do see correlations becoming more or less effective. This quarter, you saw them being very effective because we didn't see those dislocations between the EU and, in fact, JKM, et cetera. But those breakdowns are typically temporary, and that's what you saw as it came through. So this quarter, hedging acting very much as intended, and that's what we like.

你確實看到相關性或多或少變得有效。本季度，您看到它們非常有效，因為我們沒有看到歐盟與 JKM 等之間的錯位。但這些故障通常是暫時的，這就是你在經歷時所看到的。所以這個季度，對沖行為非常符合預期，這就是我們喜歡的。

Thanks for that, Sinead. And Oswald to your first question, just to play back. So the $23 billion to $27 billion includes a few things. One, we have said is it will include Nature Energy, which you know is to the tune of around $2 billion. Secondly, we've also said it includes general inorganics. So that's also within that number. And then thirdly, indeed, there is inflationary pressure that we're absorbing. The inflationary pressure we're seeing at the moment is in the range of, say, 10% to 12%, typically. Of that, we're being able to mitigate a decent portion of that but not all of it. Most of the mitigations come from long-term contracts with suppliers where we have these enterprise framework agreements that we can lean on because of the scale of our purchases with those suppliers. So that allows us to mitigate some of the exposure.

謝謝你，西尼德。奧斯瓦爾德回答你的第一個問題，只是為了回放。所以 230 億美元到 270 億美元包括一些東西。第一，我們已經說過，它將包括 Nature Energy，你知道這大約是 20 億美元。其次，我們也說過它包括一般無機物。所以這也在這個數字之內。第三，事實上，我們正在承受通脹壓力。我們目前看到的通脹壓力通常在 10% 到 12% 的範圍內。其中，我們能夠減輕其中的相當一部分，但不是全部。大多數緩解措施來自與供應商的長期合同，由於我們與這些供應商的採購規模，我們可以依靠這些企業框架協議。因此，這使我們能夠減輕一些風險。

You talked about delaying projects and the like. There are examples of that, of course. We took the decision on Gato do Mato, which is our Brazilian offshore opportunity, to recycle that project because of the cost estimates that came in were higher than we were comfortable taking a final investment decision on. And so with a disciplined focus on our capital allocation, we said this is not the right time to do it. And therefore, we punt it until there is a better environment to be able to invest in. So hopefully, that just gives you a bit of a flavor of how our thinking has gone with that.

你談到了延遲項目等。當然，有這樣的例子。我們決定在 Gato do Mato（這是我們在巴西的離岸機會）上回收該項目，因為所估算的成本高於我們做出最終投資決定時所能接受的水平。因此，在嚴格關注我們的資本配置的情況下，我們說現在不是這樣做的好時機。因此，我們一直堅持下去，直到有一個更好的投資環境。希望這能讓你對我們的想法如何發展有所了解。

Oswald, thanks for the question.

奧斯瓦爾德，謝謝你的提問。

The second question is from Biraj Borkhataria at RBC Capital Markets.

第二個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Biraj Borkhataria。

I've got 2, please. The first one is a few days ago, there were some headlines around you looking to review your U.K. electricity business. I was just wondering, I know this is not a huge part of the portfolio, but is this part of a broader review of your low-carbon efforts? Or is it specific to this business? Because I guess if I look from the outside in, this is a fairly low-margin business that actually has needed quite a lot of capital given all the volatility in power prices. So just wanted to get a sense of what has triggered that review there.

我有2個，謝謝。第一個是幾天前，您周圍有一些頭條新聞希望審查您的英國電力業務。我只是想知道，我知道這不是投資組合的很大一部分，但這是否是對您的低碳努力進行更廣泛審查的一部分？還是特定於此業務？因為我想如果我從外面看，這是一個利潤率相當低的業務，考慮到電價的所有波動，實際上需要相當多的資金。所以只是想了解是什麼觸發了那裡的審查。

And the second question is in the Upstream. So in 2020, 2021, you put out your emissions targets and all the targets related to the energy transition. And one of those was declining oil production, 1% to 2% per annum. If I look at the last 2 years, it's down something like 10% to 12%. So clearly, you've moved a lot faster on some divestments and so on, and that's been a part of that. So given you're well ahead of where you intended to be on that front, what does this mean for Upstream volumes going forward? Should we expect more stable production now or even growth? Because I guess the realities of the energy market are very different to when you put those targets out there as well. So just some thoughts on that.

第二個問題在上游。因此，在 2020 年、2021 年，您制定了排放目標以及與能源轉型相關的所有目標。其中之一是石油產量下降，每年下降 1% 至 2%。如果我回顧過去 2 年，它下降了大約 10% 到 12%。很明顯，你在一些撤資等方面的行動要快得多，這是其中的一部分。因此，鑑於您遠遠領先於您打算在這方面取得的進展，這對未來的上游交易量意味著什麼？我們現在應該期待更穩定的生產甚至增長嗎？因為我猜能源市場的現實與你將這些目標也放在那裡時非常不同。所以只是一些想法。

Super. Thank you for that, Biraj. I'll take both of those and start off with the SERL one, so Shell Energy Retail. The broad -- the review of SERL is specific to SERL. It's not a broader review of low-carbon investments. Ultimately, we are looking at every single one of our investments in its own right and trying to understand whether we can totally unlock the value out of that investment opportunity.

極好的。謝謝你，Biraj。我將把這兩個都拿走，然後從 SERL 開始，所以 Shell Energy Retail。廣泛的——對 SERL 的審查是針對 SERL 的。這不是對低碳投資的更廣泛審查。最終，我們正在審視我們的每一項投資，並試圖了解我們是否能夠完全釋放該投資機會的價值。

For Shell Energy Retail, what we have found is despite a few years of trying to make that work as part of an integrated value chain, the market conditions are just structurally not there for us to be able to create the returns we expect. We have seen significant interventions from the government, including price caps, including windfall taxes. We have seen nationalization in that sector. And so it is not a structurally advantaged sector for us to play in here in the U.K.

對於 Shell Energy Retail，我們發現，儘管幾年來一直試圖將其作為集成價值鏈的一部分，但市場條件在結構上並不適合我們創造預期的回報。我們已經看到政府的重大干預措施，包括價格上限，包括暴利稅。我們已經看到該部門的國有化。因此，對於我們來說，在英國這裡，這不是一個具有結構優勢的行業。

It also meant we had to review our German and Dutch positions because they run off a lot of common infrastructure. It wouldn't make sense to look at just one of them in isolation. That's what triggers the review and our ability to be able to understand how we can -- or what position we need to take going forward, and that will take a few months.

這也意味著我們必須重新審視我們在德國和荷蘭的立場，因為它們耗盡了很多共同的基礎設施。孤立地看其中一個是沒有意義的。這就是觸發審查的原因，也是我們能夠理解我們如何做的能力——或者我們需要採取什麼立場向前推進的原因，這將需要幾個月的時間。

Our broader low-carbon opportunities will, again, like everything else, also in our Upstream, be assessed on their own merits. Opportunities that we can see running room in, we're going to continue to scale up and invest in and grow. And we've seen some of these opportunities, and we can talk about that as well in the coming hour.

我們更廣泛的低碳機會將再次像其他一切一樣，也在我們的上游，根據其自身的優點進行評估。我們可以看到運行空間的機會，我們將繼續擴大規模，投資和發展。我們已經看到了其中一些機會，我們也可以在接下來的一個小時內討論這些機會。

On the -- on where we are with Upstream. Having had the privilege of being with Sinead in the Upstream business at the time when we set these targets, we have indeed moved very fast on being able to monetize the parts of the portfolio that we felt did not fit into the broader core of what we wanted in the Upstream. And just as a reminder, we've done a lot of work in the Upstream over the past several years to fundamentally high grade the quality of that asset base. I referenced earlier in the morning, the fact that in 2014, at the similar Brent price, we were delivering -- we had in 2022, 7% less production than we had in 2014, yet we're able to deliver some 80-plus percent free cash flow and 70-plus percent earnings. And therefore, the quality of the Upstream has significantly improved as a result of this focus on value over volume.

關於 - 關於我們與上游的關係。在我們設定這些目標時，有幸在上游業務中與 Sinead 一起工作，我們確實在能夠將我們認為不適合我們更廣泛的核心業務的投資組合部分貨幣化方面進展非常迅速想要在上游。提醒一下，過去幾年我們在上游做了很多工作，從根本上提高了該資產基礎的質量。我在早上早些時候提到，事實上，在 2014 年，以類似的布倫特原油價格，我們交付了——我們在 2022 年的產量比 2014 年減少了 7%，但我們能夠交付大約 80 多個% 的自由現金流和 70% 以上的收益。因此，由於對價值而非數量的關注，上游的質量得到了顯著提高。

As we look into the future, longevity of Upstream and our Upstream resource is a key focus area for me and for Sinead. That's going to be something we focus on. More on exactly how that looks, I think, is better discussed in our Capital Markets Day in June 2023. But longevity is a core part of our focus.

當我們展望未來時，上游的壽命和我們的上游資源是我和 Sinead 的一個重點關注領域。這將是我們關注的事情。我認為，在我們 2023 年 6 月的“資本市場日”中可以更好地討論這到底是什麼樣子。但長壽是我們關注的核心部分。

Thank you for that -- for those 2 questions, Biraj.

謝謝你——關於這兩個問題，Biraj。

The next question is from Christopher Kuplent at Bank of America Global Research.

下一個問題來自美國銀行全球研究部的 Christopher Kuplent。

Wael, let me take your last comment and ask you a very mean question. What else did you feel like you can't tell us today that you're going to focus on in June? So apologies already for that question. But maybe I might want to make a suggestion to review that payout ratio. How do you feel about the formal 20% to 30%? As you've highlighted, you've gone well beyond that. It seems a little outdated. So hopefully, we can look forward to an update on that front as well as the longevity point that you just made. So any other thoughts in terms of what keeps you busy as you prepare for June would be great. And I'm not asking for a full preview of that event.

Wael，讓我接受你的最後評論並問你一個非常刻薄的問題。還有什麼你覺得今天不能告訴我們你將在 6 月重點關注的事情？所以已經為這個問題道歉了。但也許我可能想提出一個建議來審查支付比率。你覺得正式的20%到30%怎麼樣？正如您所強調的那樣，您已經遠遠超出了這一範圍。似乎有點過時了。因此，希望我們可以期待這方面的更新以及您剛剛提出的長壽點。因此，在為 6 月做準備時，關於什麼讓您忙碌的任何其他想法都很棒。我並不是要獲得該事件的完整預覽。

And then a quick one, hopefully, for Sinead. Just wondering whether you can give us a little bit of detail in terms of what you expect into Q1, Q2 when it comes to both the net working capital potentially a bit reversing as well as those derivative margining costs that went the other way in Q4.

然後是一個快速的，希望是 Sinead。只是想知道您是否可以就您對第一季度和第二季度的淨營運資本可能有點逆轉以及第四季度相反的衍生品保證金成本的預期向我們提供一些細節。

Thanks, Chris. I'm going to ask Sinead, if you want to cover Q1, Q2 and maybe also the point around distributions. The -- and then I'll come back and cover any other items on June.

謝謝，克里斯。我要問 Sinead，你是否想涵蓋第一季度、第二季度以及分佈的要點。然後我將在 6 月回來討論任何其他項目。

Super. Indeed. No. Thanks, Christopher. And specifically on working capital. So in terms of the working capital, we've had comments in the past about the fact that our working capital has been an outflow. And as you saw this quarter, it was a substantial inflow of over $10 billion as well. Volatility comes with working capital. Our working capital comes from volatility is probably a better way of putting it. And we are in a great position where we have the financial framework that allows us to take this and have the capability to make money from us, of course.

極好的。的確。不，謝謝，克里斯托弗。特別是營運資金。因此，就營運資金而言，我們過去曾評論過我們的營運資金一直在流出。正如您在本季度看到的那樣，這也是超過 100 億美元的大量流入。波動性伴隨著營運資金。我們的營運資金來自波動性可能是一種更好的表達方式。我們處於有利地位，我們擁有財務框架，可以讓我們接受這一點，當然也有能力從我們這裡賺錢。

So as we play through that, what are we expecting to see? In terms of the working capital that occurred this quarter, there were a number of things. It was price that came down obviously impacted. We saw a change less outflows with respect to margin, which you referred to as well, and that was [assigned] to active management. We really looked at what are the right returns we need for that side of things and for the margining. And the third one is some one-offs. So in those one-offs, we saw quite a few people actually prepaying us towards year-end, so their own form of active cash management. And we also saw, of course, some cash deposits from some of our joint ventures who have to pay tax in January rather than in December. So just a change in terms of how taxes are playing out for them.

所以當我們玩這個的時候，我們期望看到什麼？就本季度發生的營運資金而言，有很多事情。明顯受到影響的是價格下跌。我們看到保證金方面的變化減少了流出，您也提到了這一點，並且 [assigned] 主動管理。我們真的研究了我們在這方面和保證金方面需要的正確回報是什麼。第三個是一次性的。所以在那些一次性的情況下，我們看到相當多的人實際上在年底前預付了我們，所以他們自己的積極現金管理形式。當然，我們也看到了我們一些合資企業的一些現金存款，他們必須在 1 月而不是 12 月納稅。因此，只是改變稅收對他們的影響。

As such, specifically to your question, how much do I expect to see? I'm probably seeing $4 billion to $5 billion of that number that came in, I would expect to see flow out. Now of course, that's just simply about things that will reverse in Q1. How working capital will play out will depend on, as you well know, the pricing and the different deals that we do during that quarter. So I won't speculate more than that. I would say that our margin, we're very active in looking at, and we're ensuring we have an appropriate return for it.

因此，特別是針對您的問題，我希望看到多少？我可能會看到其中 40 億到 50 億美元的流入，我預計會流出。現在當然，這只是關於將在第一季度逆轉的事情。如您所知，營運資金將如何發揮作用將取決於我們在該季度進行的定價和不同交易。所以我不會推測更多。我會說我們的保證金，我們非常積極地關注，我們確保我們有適當的回報。

You also asked about the payout ratio, which I think you said was outdated. With respect to the payout ratio, as you know, we've been quite clear on this and the fact that we have 20% to 30% range of CFFO. And taking a step back from that as well, 20% to 30%, well, as you can see, when market conditions and economic conditions allow for it, we go beyond that. So you can see in the course of the year, we actually got to 35%. That's not about being outdated. That's about an effect of us having 20% to 30% through the cycle, and that's why we are very, very clear on the fact that it is a soft ceiling and a hard floor if that helps.

您還詢問了派息率，我認為您說的已經過時了。關於派息率，正如你所知，我們對此非常清楚，而且我們有 20% 到 30% 的 CFFO 範圍。並從中退一步，20% 到 30%，好吧，正如你所看到的，當市場條件和經濟條件允許時，我們會超越這一點。所以你可以看到在這一年中，我們實際上達到了 35%。這並不是說過時了。這大約是我們在整個週期中有 20% 到 30% 的影響，這就是為什麼我們非常非常清楚，如果有幫助的話，它是一個軟天花板和硬地板。

Thanks for that, Sinead. Let me touch on the broader question of what to expect in June. I think Chris, it's worthwhile to sort of restate here that I continue to believe that our Powering Progress strategy is the right strategy for us and that the focus that at least I'm really keen to bring is how we're going to operationalize that strategy.

謝謝你，西尼德。讓我談談更廣泛的問題，即 6 月會發生什麼。我認為 Chris，值得在這裡重申一下，我仍然相信我們的 Powering Progress 戰略對我們來說是正確的戰略，而且至少我真正熱衷於關注的重點是我們將如何實施該戰略戰略。

When we start from an incredibly privileged position; when you have something as strong as your current core Upstream business that is delivering significant value, higher margins, strong, strong performance overall; when you have this world-leading Integrated Gas business, of which we've been able to significant strength as well in 2022 with the many announcements we've made; and when you have the customer interface that we have with a very strong Marketing business, we start from a very strong position. And we recognize that as we move forward, we can continue to grow and strengthen that position while continuing to decarbonize our own assets and help our customers decarbonize their energy.

當我們從一個難以置信的特權位置開始時；當您擁有與當前核心上游業務一樣強大的業務時，它可以提供顯著的價值、更高的利潤率、強勁的整體業績；當你擁有這個世界領先的綜合天然氣業務時，我們已經能夠在 2022 年通過我們發布的許多公告實現顯著的實力；當您擁有我們擁有非常強大的營銷業務的客戶界面時，我們從非常強大的位置開始。我們認識到，隨著我們的前進，我們可以繼續發展和鞏固這一地位，同時繼續使我們自己的資產脫碳並幫助我們的客戶使他們的能源脫碳。

So that core is very, very strong. But there's 2 pieces that I have said, and I'll continue to reiterate. Our focus is going to be on performance and discipline. Performance is going to be very much about how do we continue to drive operational excellence in our business? How do we focus on making sure that we are getting the consistency and the predictability in our overall results? And so that has all sorts of elements around how we think about working capital and the like. But also how do we continue to be lean and fit in what is an inflationary environment? So those are all elements of the performance.

所以這個核心非常非常強大。但是有兩點我已經說過了，我會繼續重申。我們的重點將放在績效和紀律上。績效將在很大程度上取決於我們如何繼續推動我們業務的卓越運營？我們如何專注於確保我們在整體結果中獲得一致性和可預測性？因此，關於我們如何看待營運資金等，有各種各樣的因素。但我們如何繼續保持精益並適應通貨膨脹環境？所以這些都是表演的要素。

And why do we focus on performance? Because I think there's a lot more running room in the company. I know we've left money on the table in my previous business in Integrated Gas this year, so we can do better. And that's the aim. We want to really drive that performance.

為什麼我們關注性能？因為我認為公司有更多的運行空間。我知道今年我之前在 Integrated Gas 的業務中已經把錢留在了桌面上，所以我們可以做得更好。這就是目標。我們想真正推動這種表現。

And ultimately, to your question around distributions, if we can drive the performance to its full potential, we will have sufficient cash to be able to distribute even more to our shareholders. And that's very much a core part of our focus. And when it comes to discipline, it's about making sure we continue to be ruthless in our allocation of capital towards the value-enhancing opportunities we see there.

最後，對於你關於分配的問題，如果我們能夠充分發揮業績潛力，我們將有足夠的現金來向我們的股東分配更多。這是我們關注的核心部分。當談到紀律時，它是關於確保我們在我們看到的增值機會上繼續無情地分配資本。

And so you'll hear a lot more of that. I've given you a bit of a preview, and you'll get a bit more of the details as we work them out over the coming few months. Chris, thank you for that question.

所以你會聽到更多。我已經給了你一些預覽，在接下來的幾個月裡，當我們解決這些問題時，你會得到更多的細節。克里斯，謝謝你提出這個問題。

The next question is from Lydia Rainforth at Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Lydia Rainforth。

Two questions, if I could. Firstly, Wael, on the exec committee changes, you've talked about making the business simpler and that pure interfaces mean greater cooperation, discipline and faith. What in practice are you changing about that capital allocation process? And what leaves it to be better effectively?

兩個問題，如果可以的話。首先，Wael，關於執行委員會的變化，你談到了讓業務更簡單，純界面意味著更好的合作、紀律和信念。在實踐中，您對資本分配過程有何改變？是什麼讓它變得更有效？

And then just picking up on what you're thinking about the operational performance and particularly in Integrated Gas, it does look like that's been disappointing certainly relative to history. What can actually be done to improve that performance? And I'm not asking you to give too much, but just in terms of any kind of gap that you think is really there that we need to look at.

然後只是了解您對運營績效的看法，尤其是在綜合天然氣方面，相對於歷史而言，這確實令人失望。實際上可以做些什麼來提高性能？我並不是要你提供太多，只是就你認為確實存在且我們需要研究的任何類型的差距而言。

Yes, sure. I think on the first one, on the executive committee changes, I just mentioned to Chris' question there, Lydia, the fact that performance and discipline were key going forward. And those were the 2 that also played in the decisions around the executive committee changes. And let me elaborate on that. And through that, maybe pick up on the operational performance question as well.

是的，當然。我想在第一個問題上，關於執行委員會的變化，我剛剛提到 Chris 的問題，Lydia，績效和紀律是未來的關鍵。這兩個人也在執行委員會變更的決策中發揮了作用。讓我詳細說明一下。通過這一點，也許還能解決運營績效問題。

The structure we are creating is one where we're trying to minimize interfaces to be able to really allow the front line to deliver the value that's needed with clear line of sight that the business directors have. In this case, our Upstream, Integrated Gas director as well as our Downstream and RES directors to have clear line of sight towards those business outcomes while the integration of our strategy as well as finance as well as M&A into one shop that will report into Sinead is meant to be able to allow us to ensure that strategy, capital allocation, the monitoring of performance to make sure that our capital is being allocated to where we see sustained strong performance, that loop has been sort of cut across 3 different parts of the organization comes together now. And so when we talk about discipline, it's our ability to be able to look life cycle at the choices we make in the way we allocate capital and continue to improve the way we do that in an objective way, unemotional way, rather than leaving it to each business to sort of try to pitch for their own capital.

我們正在創建的結構是我們試圖最小化界面的結構，以便能夠真正讓前線在業務主管擁有清晰視線的情況下提供所需的價值。在這種情況下，我們的上游、綜合天然氣總監以及我們的下游和 RES 總監對這些業務成果有清晰的視線，同時將我們的戰略、財務和併購整合到一個將向 Sinead 報告的商店旨在讓我們能夠確保戰略、資本分配、績效監控，以確保我們的資本被分配到我們看到持續強勁表現的地方，這個循環已經被分成了三個不同的部分組織現在聚集在一起。因此，當我們談論紀律時，我們能夠審視我們在分配資本的方式中做出的選擇的生命週期，並以客觀的、冷靜的方式繼續改進我們的做法，而不是離開它每個企業都試圖為自己的資本推銷。

So that's really a core part of it. In that strand, when you talk -- when we talk about operational performance and coming to the Integrated Gas assets, I want to maybe correct a bit of an impression because there's 2 things that we're working on hard in Integrated Gas. There's one element around feedstock in certain areas like Nigeria and Trinidad that has nothing to do with performance. The assets are doing very, very, very well. The problem is it's really challenging in Nigeria, given sabotage of the pipelines and the like to be able to get sufficient gas into the system. If we can overcome some of those challenges, the machine runs well.

所以這真的是它的核心部分。在這方面，當你談論 - 當我們談論運營績效和進入綜合天然氣資產時，我想糾正一點印象，因為我們在綜合天然氣方面正在努力做兩件事。在某些地區，如尼日利亞和特立尼達，有一個與性能無關的因素與原料有關。這些資產做得非常、非常、非常好。問題在於，考慮到管道遭到破壞等問題，要向系統中註入足夠的天然氣，這在尼日利亞確實具有挑戰性。如果我們能夠克服其中的一些挑戰，機器就會運行良好。

In Trinidad, it's simply a lack of gas supply. And you've heard recently that the U.S. government has -- OFAC has allowed now Trinidadian government and Shell to consider bringing gas from the Dragon field in Venezuela. So those are the sorts of solutions for that part of the problem.

在特立尼達，這只是缺乏天然氣供應。你最近聽說美國政府 - OFAC 現在允許特立尼達政府和殼牌考慮從委內瑞拉的 Dragon 油田進口天然氣。所以這些是解決那部分問題的各種解決方案。

The other challenge we've had is, in particular, Prelude has been a challenge, and that's one that we are very focused on right now with the team, and the leadership in Australia is really looking forensically at what are the things that would potentially mitigate further challenges.

我們遇到的另一個挑戰是，特別是 Prelude 一直是一個挑戰，這是我們現在與團隊一起非常關注的挑戰，澳大利亞的領導層真的在法證上尋找可能會發生的事情減輕進一步的挑戰。

And that's what I would say at the stage, Lydia, around where our focus has been. Thank you for the question.

莉迪亞，這就是我要在舞台上說的，圍繞我們的重點。感謝你的提問。

The next question is from Michele Della Vigna from Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的 Michele Della Vigna。

Really, congratulations for the excellent delivery in the quarter. I wanted to ask 2 questions. The first one is about the EU green taxonomy. It's going to be one of the biggest new regulations from an ESG perspective in Europe. It's far from perfect, but it still offers an interesting insight in change towards a greener company with especially the percentage of green CapEx. And I was wondering if you had an initial assessment of what percentage of your CapEx would be green taxonomy-aligned.

真的，祝賀本季度的出色交付。我想問2個問題。第一個是關於歐盟綠色分類法。從 ESG 的角度來看，這將成為歐洲最大的新法規之一。它遠非完美，但它仍然提供了一個有趣的洞察力，說明如何向更環保的公司轉變，尤其是綠色資本支出的百分比。我想知道您是否對您的資本支出中有多少百分比與綠色分類法一致進行了初步評估。

My second question relates to the gas market. You are one of the largest players worldwide. It seems to me like the market is getting a little bit too relaxed about the risks in the second half of the year. The price incentive is moving away from substitution. Gas-intensive industries are restarting in the EU. And I wonder if we run into a risk of potentially having another crisis this winter and how you think you can position yourself to be best positioned to benefit from that.

我的第二個問題與天然氣市場有關。您是全球最大的參與者之一。在我看來，市場對下半年的風險有點過於放鬆了。價格激勵正在遠離替代。歐盟的天然氣密集型產業正在重啟。我想知道今年冬天我們是否有可能發生另一場危機的風險，以及你認為你如何才能讓自己處於最有利的位置，從而從中受益。

Thank you for those, Michele. Do you want to start off, Sinead, with EU green taxonomy?

謝謝你，米歇爾。 Sinead，你想從歐盟綠色分類法開始嗎？

Indeed. So indeed, Michele, it's a really interesting one, the EU green taxonomy because, as you know, it will play out and be delivered across just a different period of time. Whether you're in the EU, whether you're part of the U.K., the timing of that will change. What you can do is actually, if you look back at our annual report from last year, you can see where we actually showed a breakdown of how the taxonomy works. And actually, the spend that we would say fits very well, and we sort of described our points of why we didn't feel the taxonomy was actually properly worded, et cetera. So that taxonomy is playing out. As you know, definitions are being challenged at the moment, and a variety of that will happen.

的確。確實，米歇爾，這是一個非常有趣的歐盟綠色分類法，因為正如你所知，它將在不同的時間段內發揮作用並交付。無論你是在歐盟，還是在英國，時間都會改變。事實上，如果你回顧一下我們去年的年度報告，你可以做的是，你可以看到我們實際上在哪裡展示了分類法如何運作的細目分類。實際上，我們所說的支出非常合適，並且我們描述了為什麼我們認為分類法實際上措辭不當的觀點，等等。所以分類法正在發揮作用。如您所知，目前定義正在受到挑戰，並且將會發生各種挑戰。

So I would say, look back at our one from last year. So from 2021, and you'll get a very good indication of that. What I would say as well, of course, is that we want consistency. That's the main thing. We have so many different regulations and rules that are coming, whether it's from the U.S., whether it's from the EU, whether it's coming from the U.K., or a benefit to all of us is to have standardization, transparency where we all use the same definitions. And we're very keen to do that as an industry.

所以我想說，回顧一下我們去年的。所以從 2021 年開始，你會得到一個很好的跡象。當然，我還要說的是，我們需要一致性。這是最主要的事情。我們有很多不同的法規和規則即將出台，無論是來自美國，還是來自歐盟，無論是來自英國，還是對我們所有人都有好處的是在我們都使用相同的地方實現標準化和透明化定義。作為一個行業，我們非常熱衷於這樣做。

Of course, what we've said before, and I described it this morning several times as well, was the fact that if you were to look at our CapEx and our OpEx together, we would say that 1/3 of that approximately at the moment is spent on low-carbon or zero-carbon investments or expenditure as well.

當然，我們之前說過，我今天早上也多次描述過，如果你一起看我們的資本支出和運營支出，我們會說其中的 1/3 大約在時間也花在低碳或零碳投資或支出上。

Thanks for that, Sinead. Michele, to your question around gas markets. When asked this morning in both CNBC and Bloomberg, my answer was the same that we are not out of the energy crisis in Europe. Far from, I think. And I would agree with your point that there seems to be some who feel that it's all back to normal. This is, I think, a multiyear energy crisis, and we want to have to collectively figure out how we address that.

謝謝你，西尼德。米歇爾，關於你關於天然氣市場的問題。當今天早上在 CNBC 和彭博社被問到時，我的回答是一樣的，我們沒有擺脫歐洲的能源危機。我認為遠非如此。我同意你的觀點，似乎有些人認為一切都恢復正常了。我認為，這是一場多年的能源危機，我們希望必須共同弄清楚我們如何解決這個問題。

Why do I say that? I think just looking at some of the facts. So last year, what happened with Russia was roughly 2.5% of global gas demand was taken out because of the reduction in gas supplies from Russia into Europe. That caused havoc in the markets, as you know well.

我為什麼這麼說？我想只是看看一些事實。因此，去年俄羅斯發生的情況是，由於從俄羅斯到歐洲的天然氣供應減少，全球天然氣需求的大約 2.5% 被抽走了。眾所周知，這在市場上造成了嚴重破壞。

What supported or what bridged the gap, of course, LNG played an important role. Mild weather played an important draw, and critically, demand destruction also played an important role. Let's take the first one. There isn't a huge amount of LNG coming into the market over the next 2 years. It's around 20 million tonnes is what we see, but that's about it. And that one shouldn't also forget that many of these machines have been running hard now for a good year. And you're beginning to see some of the challenges in just the reliability of the machines around the world. So that's an issue.

支持什麼，彌合差距，當然，液化天然氣發揮了重要作用。溫和的天氣發揮了重要作用，而至關重要的是，需求破壞也發揮了重要作用。讓我們來看第一個。未來兩年內不會有大量液化天然氣進入市場。我們所看到的大約是 2000 萬噸，僅此而已。那個人也不應該忘記，這些機器中的許多現在已經努力運行了好一年。您開始看到全球機器可靠性方面的一些挑戰。所以這是一個問題。

The second issue, of course, is that China was the one that diverted roughly 50% of its LNG to come here to Europe or 50% of Europe's needs was met with diverted LNG cargoes from China. That might change or is likely to change given where things are going with the recovery -- the economic recovery in China.

當然，第二個問題是中國將大約 50% 的液化天然氣轉移到歐洲，或者歐洲 50% 的需求是通過從中國轉移的液化天然氣貨物來滿足的。考慮到復甦的進展——中國的經濟復甦，這可能會或可能會改變。

So you look at that, you don't want to be in a position to be depending on the weather as your savior or the fact that you're going to destroy more demand. And so I do think this is a multiyear issue. We've been very vocal with governments here in Europe that we're going to have to move faster. What the Shell do as a result of this, of course, our portfolio has typically been positioned for Northern Hemisphere winters. That's where we typically have our [lungs]. We, of course, work on significant support in storage this year -- or last year, sorry, we invested in storage in Germany and in Austria, which was part of where we used our working capital, for example. We're investing in projects right now. We have Pierce depressurization that's coming on stream in Penguins in the U.K.

所以你看，你不想依賴天氣作為你的救世主，或者你將摧毀更多需求的事實。所以我確實認為這是一個多年的問題。我們一直與歐洲各國政府直言不諱，我們必須加快行動速度。當然，殼牌因此而採取的措施是，我們的投資組合通常針對北半球的冬季進行定位。那是我們通常擁有 [肺] 的地方。當然，我們今年在存儲方面提供了重要支持——或者去年，抱歉，我們在德國和奧地利投資了存儲，例如，這是我們使用營運資金的一部分。我們現在正在投資項目。我們在英國的企鵝隊中進行了 Pierce 減壓。

So we have a lot of opportunities to be able to supply the market and, of course, create value through the tremendous portfolio that we have in LNG. Thank you for the question, Michele.

因此，我們有很多機會能夠供應市場，當然，通過我們在液化天然氣領域擁有的巨大投資組合創造價值。謝謝你的問題，米歇爾。

The next question is from Christyan Malek at JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Christyan Malek。

Congratulations on the results. So 2 questions from me. Just first, sort of slightly different topic but some related on the industrial and financial logic of renewables at this stage with energy transition. One of your peers sort of appears to be dialing back in renewables and into the returns proposition or the evolving returns. Can you share more views on the case to scale clean energy at this point, be it M&A or organic and so the time lines around how you think about the transition in the context of clean energy?

祝賀結果。所以我有 2 個問題。首先，有點不同的話題，但有些話題與能源轉型現階段可再生能源的產業和金融邏輯有關。您的一位同行似乎正在回撥可再生能源並轉向回報主張或不斷變化的回報。您能否就此時擴大清潔能源的案例分享更多觀點，無論是併購還是有機，以及圍繞您如何看待清潔能源背景下的轉型的時間線？

My second question is regarding the oil outlook specifically. What does it take for you to grab the bull by the horns in oil investment and break out of the range you provided? As it still seems somewhat in contrast, the U.S. majors who are leaning into low-growth [base for Shell]. Yes, you framed the mood as more volatile and uncertain, and you're talking about energy crisis again on the other hand. So I'm just trying to understand what are the key milestones we're looking to see for you to step in on particularly the crude side.

我的第二個問題是關於石油前景的。在石油投資中，您如何抓住牛角並突破您提供的範圍？與此形成鮮明對比的是，美國石油巨頭正傾向於低增長 [殼牌的基礎]。是的，你認為情緒更加動盪和不確定，另一方面你又在談論能源危機。所以我只是想了解我們希望看到哪些關鍵里程碑，以便您介入，特別是在原油方面。

Super. Thank you, Christyan, for those 2 questions. Sinead, do you want to start with the industrial and financial logic of how we're thinking about renewables?

極好的。謝謝 Christyan，提出這兩個問題。 Sinead，你想從我們如何考慮可再生能源的工業和金融邏輯開始嗎？

Yes, indeed. I'll keep it simple, Christyan. It sounds like you're in an airport without a doubt. But what I am seeing on that is the logic is very simple for us. We look first at whether any of the investments that come to us are fitting our strategic way forward. And then we're looking at very much how does it fit in terms of the returns profile. And we probably had this conversation before on that. Each investment has to fit both aspects of it. And on the return side, what we're seeing, of course, is that we have many different projects that are open to us. So we're not short of investment opportunities. It's finding the right one where we can actually differentiate and we can get those specific returns. I'm very comfortable that we have the right strategy for that. So that's where we're going to.

確實是的。我會保持簡單，克里斯蒂安。聽起來你毫無疑問是在機場。但我所看到的是，邏輯對我們來說非常簡單。我們首先查看我們的任何投資是否符合我們的戰略前進方向。然後我們非常關注它如何適應回報情況。我們之前可能就此進行過對話。每項投資都必須符合它的兩個方面。在回報方面，我們當然看到，我們有許多不同的項目對我們開放。所以我們並不缺乏投資機會。它找到了我們可以真正區分並獲得那些特定回報的正確選擇。我很高興我們有正確的策略。這就是我們要去的地方。

But in terms of the -- are we dialing back or any of that side of things, you can see from our capital investment, we have a very healthy budget within the side of things with respect to renewables, in respect to green. But it will depend, of course, on the returns that we see as those come through, and that will continue to be the case. At the moment, we're seeing good opportunities, Nature Energy being a great one where, of course, it's just a logic where it fits through. We're good at molecules. We're able to move those to different locations. And of course, having the sort of business that we have with a number of customers to be able to decarbonize them, it's a very clear logic as well.

但就我們是否回撥或任何方面而言，你可以從我們的資本投資中看到，我們在可再生能源和綠色方面有非常健康的預算。但這當然取決於我們看到的回報，而且這種情況將繼續存在。目前，我們看到了很好的機會，Nature Energy 是一個很好的機會，當然，它只是符合邏輯的地方。我們擅長分子。我們能夠將它們移動到不同的位置。當然，我們與許多客戶開展的業務能夠使他們脫碳，這也是一個非常清晰的邏輯。

Thanks for that, Sinead. Let me take the oil bit, Christyan. I think first to step back, I think the strategy that we have is a very balanced strategy. I mean we're playing the game for the short, medium and long term. So we're looking at how do we create value for our shareholders today but also how do we create the value opportunities for 2040 when the energy system will be fundamentally different.

謝謝你，西尼德。讓我來取油位，克里斯蒂安。我想首先退後一步，我認為我們的戰略是一個非常平衡的戰略。我的意思是我們正在玩短期、中期和長期的遊戲。因此，我們正在研究如何為我們的股東創造價值，以及我們如何在 2040 年能源系統發生根本性變化時創造價值機會。

By the way, by 2040, I'm still convinced you're going to need oil and you're going to need gas and you're going to need a lot more renewables. And so our strategy is one that's saying, how do we play across these multiple energy forms but really focus on the opportunities that create the most value for us, a bit like what we've done in Upstream, where we have gone to the core of 8 countries and really doubled down. And you're seeing the benefits of that through margin expansion and our ability to really focus on value drive.

順便說一下，到 2040 年，我仍然相信你會需要石油，你會需要天然氣，你會需要更多的可再生能源。因此，我們的戰略是說，我們如何在這些多種能源形式中發揮作用，但真正專注於為我們創造最大價值的機會，有點像我們在上游所做的，我們已經進入核心8 個國家，真正翻了一番。通過利潤率擴張和我們真正專注於價值驅動的能力，您可以看到這樣做的好處。

Does that mean we will continue to look at that? Absolutely, you've heard me say earlier as well, we will continue to look at how do we have longevity in our oil business. But I would also say I love the fact that we have a world-leading Integrated Gas business that actually has a significant portion, north of 70% of our term contracts indexed to Brent. I want to continue to grow that part of the business because I can get exposure to a business that we are uniquely differentiated in that gives Brent exposure and, at the same time, where we are able to have much more resilience as we go through the energy transition because of the lower-carbon footprint of that business.

這是否意味著我們將繼續關注它？當然，你之前也聽過我說過，我們將繼續研究如何讓我們的石油業務長壽。但我還要說，我喜歡這樣一個事實，即我們擁有世界領先的綜合天然氣業務，實際上有很大一部分，超過 70% 的定期合約與布倫特原油掛鉤。我想繼續發展這部分業務，因為我可以接觸到我們獨一無二的差異化業務，這為布倫特提供了曝光度，同時，我們在經歷挑戰時能夠擁有更大的彈性能源轉型，因為該業務的碳足跡較低。

That is at the core of the strategy. And so we will continue to follow that. And we've built on that in 2022, the North Field expansion, North Field South, our ability to be able to pick up significant volumes from the U.S. through Venture Global, Mexico Pacific Limited. And so we're really putting that strategy into action to be able to grow without necessarily saying it just has to be oil, but oil exposure is a good thing for us as a company, and that's what we're really looking. That exposure to Brent is going to be important.

這是戰略的核心。因此，我們將繼續關注這一點。我們在 2022 年建立了 North Field 擴張，North Field South，我們能夠通過 Venture Global，Mexico Pacific Limited 從美國獲得大量產品的能力。因此，我們真的將這一戰略付諸行動，以實現增長，而不必說它必須是石油，但石油風險對我們公司來說是一件好事，而這正是我們真正期待的。接觸布倫特原油將很重要。

Thank you for the question, Christyan. Safe travels wherever you're going as well.

謝謝你的問題，克里斯蒂安。無論您要去哪裡，都可以安全旅行。

The next question is from Irene Himona at Societe Generale.

下一個問題來自法國興業銀行的 Irene Himona。

My first question, if I can go back to the cash payout ratio, please. You point to 20% to 30% through the cycle and 35% at current prices. To be fair that 35% was clearly helped by the proceeds from the Permian disposal. My question is, can you give us a sense and indication of what for you is the Brent oil price which you would consider as average through the cycle and which would, therefore, correspond to the 20% to 30%?

我的第一個問題，請問我能否回到現金支付比率。你指出整個週期為 20% 到 30%，按當前價格為 35%。公平地說，二疊紀處置的收益顯然幫助了 35%。我的問題是，您能否給我們一個概念和指示，說明您認為布倫特原油價格是整個週期的平均價格，因此對應於 20% 至 30%？

And then the second question, just a numerical one on RES. Capital employed more than doubled basically between Q2 and the end of the year. I presume this was due to the spike in power prices possibly more working capital for trading. Is that correct? Or is there anything else behind the increase?

然後是第二個問題，只是關於 RES 的數字問題。從第二季度到年底，已動用的資本基本上翻了一番以上。我認為這是由於電價飆升可能導致更多的營運資金用於交易。那是對的嗎？或者增加的背後還有其他什麼？

Thanks. Do you want to take both?

謝謝。你想兩個都拿嗎？

Yes. I'll take both. So on the RES one, Irene, very simply put, there's a mixture in there. You're completely right. The working capital part of it is to do with power. But a large part of it is to do with the build into storage. So we talked about earlier, Germany and Austria, also some storage in the U.K., of course, as well. So you saw -- between Q2 and Q3, you saw that go up. You saw a little bit of that come down in terms of the storage side of things as well as it played out. So that's part of what occurs there. That will play out as we release out of storage as well.

是的。我兩個都要。所以在 RES 上，Irene，非常簡單地說，裡面有混合物。你完全正確。它的營運資金部分與權力有關。但其中很大一部分與構建存儲有關。所以我們之前談到了德國和奧地利，當然還有英國的一些存儲。所以你看到了 - 在第二季度和第三季度之間，你看到了上升。你看到了一些東西在存儲方面的下降以及它的發揮。這就是那裡發生的事情的一部分。這將在我們釋放存儲空間時發揮作用。

If I were to look at the first one as well that you asked around the payout ratio, fundamentally, it's -- if you said Permian, it's still above 30% as well. So I do acknowledge, yes, the Permian is in there. But of course, that's part of the capital allocation that we have. We make choices about which assets we are best kept -- best suited to keep and which should go out of the portfolio as well. Of course, that has implications on the CFFO as well that plays through. But we were over 30% in either way that you look at it.

如果我也看第一個你問的關於支付率的問題，從根本上說，如果你說二疊紀，它仍然在 30% 以上。所以我承認，是的，二疊紀就在那裡。但當然，這是我們擁有的資本配置的一部分。我們會選擇我們最好保留哪些資產——最適合保留哪些資產也應該從投資組合中剔除。當然，這對 CFFO 也有影響。但是無論你怎麼看，我們都超過了 30%。

We tend to look at in terms of price because you were quite specific on the price. I'm not going to be drawn on what specific price it is. As you can imagine, we look at scenarios. We don't look at one specific price or strip probably quite sensible as you can imagine, given how volatile we've seen in the last year as well. So we look at the different aspects of that. And that's how we play out as we plan beyond just next quarter but through the cycle as we look to invest.

我們傾向於從價格的角度來看，因為你對價格非常具體。我不會被吸引到它的具體價格是多少。可以想像，我們會查看場景。考慮到我們在去年也看到的波動程度，我們不會關註一個特定的價格或剝離可能非常明智。所以我們看看它的不同方面。這就是我們在下個季度之後的計劃中發揮作用的方式，但在我們尋求投資的整個週期中。

Thank you for that, Sinead. Irene, thank you for the question.

謝謝你，西尼德。艾琳，謝謝你的提問。

The next question is from Henri Patricot at UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Henri Patricot。

A couple of questions from me. The first one, a follow-up on renewables and the changes to the executive committee. Can you expand on the rationale for grouping renewables with the Downstream and whether this has any implications for the strategy for renewables?

我有幾個問題。第一個，關於可再生能源的後續行動和執行委員會的變動。您能否詳細說明將可再生能源與下游歸為一類的理由，以及這是否對可再生能源戰略有任何影響？

And then secondly, on Chemicals with the start-up of Shell Polymers Monaca, not just making full contribution. How long do you expect for that asset to ramp up to get to full contribution to earnings? And should we expect to (inaudible) improvement in the first quarter? Or does that take a bit longer?

其次，在 Shell Polymers Monaca 的啟動下，在化學品方面，不僅做出了全部貢獻。您預計該資產需要多長時間才能實現對收益的全部貢獻？我們是否應該期望在第一季度（聽不清）有所改善？或者這需要更長的時間？

You want to take the second question (inaudible)?

你想回答第二個問題（聽不清）？

Sure. Absolutely. No, indeed. And thank you, Henri. Yes, Shell Polymers Monaca, really great to see it actually starting up and beginning to run through. It's quite exciting when you're actually there and just see it. In terms of the ramp-up, you can imagine with anything of this size, I'd love to say we'd get up and running within a couple of months. It doesn't. It always takes approximately 12 months by the time you run up, you get certified on the quality of the products, et cetera. So that's what we're seeing. So you'll start to see it play out in the results more and more. Of course, we're getting all of the costs coming through now that we're operating, but the true value of it will take approximately 12 months to play out, and then you'll really see it hitting.

當然。絕對地。不，確實如此。謝謝你，亨利。是的，Shell Polymers Monaca，真的很高興看到它真正啟動並開始運行。當你真的身臨其境並看到它時，這是非常令人興奮的。就加速而言，你可以想像這種規模的任何東西，我想說我們會在幾個月內啟動並運行。它沒有。到你跑起來，你總是需要大約 12 個月的時間，你會得到產品質量的認證，等等。這就是我們所看到的。所以你會開始越來越多地看到它在結果中發揮作用。當然，現在我們正在運營，我們正在承擔所有成本，但它的真正價值將需要大約 12 個月才能發揮出來，然後你就會真正看到它發揮作用。

Thank you, Sinead. Then on the first question, Henri, on the RES-Downstream grouping. Dial back to 2017 when we started the renewables business, it was really nascent. We were looking at how do we think about power, how do we think about hydrogen, how do we think about CCS. And so that's been evolving. And what you have seen, in particular in 2022, we made some big moves, right? So we made a fine investment decision on a green hydrogen project in Rotterdam, leveraging our requirements in Pernis while, at the same time, being able to leverage our leading commercial road transport business as a potential sync for that green hydrogen and leveraging, of course, also the very strong incentives from the European government. We've made moves in India and in the U.S. around Sprng and Savion, respectively. And we continue to look at those opportunities.

謝謝你，西尼德。然後是第一個問題，Henri，關於 RES-Downstream 分組。回溯到 2017 年我們開始可再生能源業務時，它才剛剛起步。我們正在研究我們如何看待電力，我們如何看待氫，我們如何看待 CCS。所以這一直在發展。你所看到的，特別是在 2022 年，我們採取了一些重大舉措，對嗎？因此，我們在鹿特丹的一個綠色氫項目上做出了一個很好的投資決定，利用我們在 Pernis 的需求，同時能夠利用我們領先的商業道路運輸業務作為綠色氫的潛在同步並利用，當然，也是來自歐洲政府的非常強大的激勵措施。我們分別在印度和美國圍繞 Sprng 和 Savion 採取了行動。我們將繼續關注這些機會。

So we have a good base. The reality, of course, is we've always talked about a customer-backed strategy, and the majority of our customers have traditionally sat in our more conventional business in Downstream. And so there has been quite a bit of an interface between renewables and Downstream, what products should we be selling to our customer and the like. And so what this is doing is actually it's strengthening our ability to access customers with green products that we are developing in our renewables business. It also harmonizes things because, currently, biofuels, for example, sits in Downstream, doesn't sit in renewables. EV charging sits in Downstream, even though the power generation and power trading sits in renewables. So this is bringing cohesion, removing interfaces and duplication and allowing us to make sure that we can deliver for our customers the decarbonized products that they want. And then being agnostic as to what green electron or green molecule they want just trying to maximize value for the group from doing that. Thank you for the question, Henri.

所以我們有一個很好的基礎。當然，現實是我們一直在談論客戶支持的戰略，而且我們的大多數客戶傳統上都參與我們下游更傳統的業務。因此，可再生能源和下游之間存在相當多的接口，我們應該向客戶銷售什麼產品等等。因此，這實際上是在加強我們使用我們在可再生能源業務中開發的綠色產品來吸引客戶的能力。它還協調了事物，因為目前，例如，生物燃料位於下游，而不是可再生能源。 EV 充電位於下游，儘管發電和電力交易位於可再生能源中。因此，這帶來了凝聚力，消除了接口和重複，並使我們能夠確保我們能夠為客戶提供他們想要的脫碳產品。然後不知道他們想要什麼綠色電子或綠色分子，只是試圖通過這樣做為團隊帶來最大價值。謝謝你的問題，亨利。

The next question is from Lucas Herrmann at Exane.

下一個問題來自 Exane 的 Lucas Herrmann。

A couple, if I might. Sinead, this is probably directed at you because it's LNG and it's first quarter. And look, we've had a year of considerable volatility. You're a month into the quarter. Price has obviously been volatile. But can you give us any help in terms of how we should be thinking about the way that the current quarter is likely to shape up in LNG? Sorry, it's so short term.

一對，如果可以的話。 Sinead，這可能是針對你的，因為它是液化天然氣，而且是第一季度。看，我們經歷了相當大的波動的一年。你已經進入本季度一個月了。價格顯然波動很大。但是，您能否就我們應該如何考慮當前季度液化天然氣的發展方式提供任何幫助？抱歉，時間太短了。

And perhaps staying with gas, if I go back to last quarter, gas storage, a lot have gone into gas storage. You indicated the benefits of that would be seen through the fourth quarter, maybe the first quarter. Where are we in that process? Has it all been released? Have the benefits been seen? Please, just commentary around both those items.

也許繼續使用天然氣，如果我回到上個季度，天然氣儲存，很多都進入了天然氣儲存。您表示這樣做的好處將在第四季度，也許是第一季度看到。我們在那個過程中處於什麼位置？都放出來了嗎？看到好處了嗎？請僅對這兩個項目進行評論。

Go for it both.

兩者都去吧。

Thank you. Indeed. Thanks a lot, Lucas. Indeed, so you're commenting, first of all, and let's start with the LNG one, specifically. So in terms of the volatility and what we expect to see coming into this quarter. So strong pricing. Now if you go back to what happens, we've talked about supply, seasonality and, in effect, the dislocations.

謝謝。的確。非常感謝，盧卡斯。確實，所以你首先要評論，讓我們從 LNG 開始，特別是。因此，就波動性和我們預計本季度會出現的情況而言。如此強大的定價。現在，如果你回到發生的事情，我們已經討論了供應、季節性以及實際上的錯位。

So in terms of the supply, you typically see us being a bit longer in terms of Q4 and Q1. And we would expect to see that playing out as well. Hedging will work as intended. I have enough sense to not try and go anywhere on that because it will depend on where the markets will play out at the same time. But seasonality and the supply side, we hope and expect to work for us on that.

因此，就供應而言，您通常會看到我們在第四季度和第一季度的時間更長一些。我們也希望看到它發揮作用。對沖將按預期進行。我有足夠的理智，不會嘗試去任何地方，因為這將取決於市場同時在何處發揮作用。但是季節性和供應方面，我們希望並期望在這方面為我們工作。

Of course, it also comes down to how much third-party volumes we can actually access as well. And that's -- as Wael already discussed, it's going well. And of course, the performance of our equity production as well. It's great to see Prelude up and running and performing well at the moment.

當然，這也取決於我們實際可以訪問多少第三方卷。那就是——正如 Wael 已經討論過的那樣，一切進展順利。當然，我們的股權生產的表現也是如此。很高興看到 Prelude 現在啟動並運行並表現良好。

In terms of the gas and referring to, basically, we talked about -- last quarter, I talked about how we had been injecting into storage as well. We've seen some being drawn out of that, particularly around Austria, so that has come out in this quarter, but we still have quite a bit in storage as well. Of course, it's mild at the moment in terms of the winter warmer, if you want to put it that way. So that will have to play out as it goes through as well. I hope that helps.

在天然氣方面，基本上，我們談到了——上個季度，我談到了我們是如何注入存儲的。我們已經看到一些人被抽走了，特別是在奧地利周圍，所以這個季度已經出來了，但我們仍然有相當多的存儲空間。當然，如果你想這麼說的話，就冬天的溫暖而言，目前是溫和的。因此，這也必須隨著它的進行而發揮作用。我希望這有幫助。

Thanks, Sinead. Thanks for that, Lucas.

謝謝，西尼德。謝謝你，盧卡斯。

The next question is from Paul Cheng at Scotiabank.

下一個問題來自豐業銀行的 Paul Cheng。

Two questions, please. First, Wael, as the new CEO, first, congratulations. That how you look at Europe in the long term as a part of their long-term portfolio given the political environment for your legacy business, I mean, you've been reducing your Upstream exposure in Europe by half over the past 5 years. The Downstream still has a lot of operations there. So I mean how do you look at that?

請教兩個問題。首先，Wael，作為新任 CEO，首先表示祝賀。鑑於您的傳統業務的政治環境，您如何長期看待歐洲作為其長期投資組合的一部分，我的意思是，在過去的 5 年中，您一直在將歐洲的上游業務減少一半。下游仍然有很多業務。所以我的意思是你怎麼看？

And secondly, that if we look at in the past, both Shell and your peers sort of target or accept the wind and solar on an absolute return will be lower than your legacy business, like that you will target 8% to 10%. But is that acceptable going forward? And as a new CEO, when you look at it, will you be willing to accept just because there's no carbon that we generate a much lower return than your legacy business?

其次，如果我們回顧過去，殼牌和您的同行在某種程度上都以風能和太陽能為目標或接受風能和太陽能，其絕對回報率將低於您的傳統業務，例如您的目標是 8% 到 10%。但這是可以接受的嗎？作為新任首席執行官，當您審視它時，您是否願意僅僅因為我們產生的回報比您的傳統業務低得多而沒有碳？

Thank you very much. Thanks for that, Paul. And let me take both. So on Europe, you're right. We don't have a huge amount of Upstream left in Europe. We still have, of course, positions in the U.K. We still have positions in Norway and Italy. But the majority, in particular, when you think deepwater is in the U.S. and in Brazil. And then we have strong positions, of course, in Kazakhstan, in Oman, in Brunei, Malaysia and so on. So you're right to point out that it has shrunk over time. And we still have, indeed, in particular, when you think about our Energy and Chemicals Parks, we have the Energy and Chemicals Parks in the Netherlands as well as the one in Germany.

非常感謝你。謝謝你，保羅。讓我把兩者都拿走。所以在歐洲，你是對的。我們在歐洲沒有大量的上游。當然，我們在英國仍然有職位。我們在挪威和意大利仍然有職位。但大多數人，特別是當你認為深水在美國和巴西時。然後我們在哈薩克斯坦、阿曼、文萊、馬來西亞等地擁有強大的地位。所以你指出它隨著時間的推移而縮小是正確的。事實上，當你想到我們的能源和化工園區時，我們仍然有，尤其是，我們在荷蘭和德國都有能源和化工園區。

It is fair to say that there's a couple of considerations around Europe. We see Europe much more going forward as an energy transition play. We see a lot more in terms of the incentives that play into Europe. We see our ability to be able to leverage our German and Dutch position in a way as well as our marketing positions in Europe in aviation, in commercial road transport, in passenger transport. Those lend themselves very well to be able to play in the energy transition, and it is in line with where Europe wants to go.

可以公平地說，歐洲有一些考慮因素。我們認為歐洲在能源轉型方面取得了更大的進步。我們在歐洲的激勵措施方面看到了更多。我們看到我們有能力在某種程度上利用我們在德國和荷蘭的地位，以及我們在歐洲航空、商業公路運輸和客運方面的營銷地位。那些非常適合在能源轉型中發揮作用，這符合歐洲想要去的地方。

So I see a strong part of our focus, and you see it. You see it with the investments we're making, for example, with offshore wind in the Netherlands, green hydrogen in the Netherlands looking at opportunities to continue to decarbonize customers in Germany, in Italy and so on and so forth. So there is more of that while we continue to be committed to our oil and gas businesses in other parts of the world as well as whatever we still have here. But definitely, I think the disproportionate share of capital that's going into Europe is an energy transition theme.

所以我看到了我們關注的很大一部分，你也看到了。你可以從我們正在進行的投資中看到這一點，例如，荷蘭的海上風電、荷蘭的綠色氫能尋找機會繼續為德國、意大利等地的客戶脫碳。因此，在我們繼續致力於我們在世界其他地區的石油和天然氣業務以及我們在這裡仍然擁有的任何業務的同時，還有更多。但可以肯定的是，我認為進入歐洲的資本比例過高是能源轉型的主題。

The important thing I keep trying to remind the government in Europe is that, that capital that really needs to be -- or I need to be comfortable that we see investment stability in the climate in Europe. And I have to say 2022 did not reinforce that confidence. We have seen ad hoc interventions in windfall taxes, in price caps, in some areas, nationalization and the like. Of course, these are extreme conditions. I fully understand that. But any time you start to move from trying to manage risk to trying to manage price creates all sorts of concerns in a company like ours that's investing for the long term. So I would just leave that out there as well.

我一直試圖提醒歐洲政府的重要事情是，真正需要的資本——或者我需要對我們看到歐洲氣候的投資穩定性感到滿意。我不得不說 2022 年並沒有增強這種信心。我們在某些地區看到了對暴利稅、價格上限、國有化等的臨時干預。當然，這些都是極端條件。我完全理解這一點。但任何時候你開始從試圖管理風險轉向試圖管理價格都會在像我們這樣的長期投資公司中產生各種擔憂。所以我也會把它留在那裡。

I think on low carbon, let me be, I think, categorical in this. We will drive for strong returns in any business we go into. We cannot justify going for a low return. Our shareholders deserve to see us going after strong returns. If we cannot achieve the double-digit returns in a business, we need to question very hard whether we should continue in that business. Absolutely, we want to continue to go for lower and lower and lower carbon, but it has to be profitable.

我認為在低碳方面，讓我在這方面是絕對的。我們將在我們從事的任何業務中爭取豐厚的回報。我們不能為低迴報辯護。我們的股東理應看到我們追求豐厚的回報。如果我們無法在一項業務中實現兩位數的回報，我們需要非常認真地質疑我們是否應該繼續從事這項業務。當然，我們希望繼續追求更低和更低的碳排放，但它必須有利可圖。

And so I recognize there's a different risk profile. Let's be clear, Upstream hasn't always been in the 20% returns. On a commodity -- or on a commodity basis, you find that the risk typically plays between the 10% to 15%. We need to be able to see those sorts of returns on an integrated value chain basis in the renewables as well, and that's what we're focused on. And we have great examples of that. We'll share a bit more of that in Capital Markets Day through getting in at the right time, through diluting, through creating more value all the way down the value chain, but it is important to say we will continue to focus on value and returns.

所以我認識到存在不同的風險狀況。讓我們明確一點，上游並不總是有 20% 的回報率。在商品上——或者在商品基礎上，你會發現風險通常在 10% 到 15% 之間。我們也需要能夠在可再生能源的綜合價值鏈基礎上看到這些類型的回報，這就是我們關注的重點。我們有很好的例子。我們將通過在正確的時間進入，通過稀釋，通過在價值鏈的各個環節創造更多價值，在資本市場日分享更多內容，但重要的是要說我們將繼續關注價值和回報。

The next question is from Amy Wong at Credit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Amy Wong。

A couple of questions from me. The first one is looking at your operating expenses. It seems like it's been creeping up across the group. So could we get a bit more color on what's happening with underlying OpEx and whether management has plans to address that?

我有幾個問題。第一個是查看您的運營費用。似乎它一直在整個小組中蔓延。那麼我們能否對基礎運營支出的情況以及管理層是否有計劃解決這個問題有更多的了解？

And then my second question is unrelated, but it's related, and it's more about your Upstream and Integrated Gas business, particularly your exploration strategy. It's not an area we hear a lot about on your exploration there. I mean a couple of years ago, you told us that you had a commercial resource base of over 20 years of production. I'm just kind of rolling that number forward. Where do we sit there?

然後我的第二個問題是無關的，但它是相關的，它更多地是關於你的上游和綜合天然氣業務，特別是你的勘探戰略。這不是我們聽到很多關於你在那裡探索的領域。我的意思是幾年前，您告訴我們您擁有 20 多年生產的商業資源基礎。我只是把這個數字往前推。我們坐在那裡？

Amy, thank you. Do you want to take both of these?

艾米，謝謝你。你想把這兩個都拿走嗎？

Sure. So on the OpEx or operating expenditure, Amy. So for this year, it has gone up, where it's sort of some 39 billion. What we're seeing there is, number one, there's a bit of a Q4 effect, which is always there related to just some of the costs that tend to come through. But if I take a step back because, of course, it's one that I watch very closely. When you look at it for the full year, what are we seeing for that increase? We're seeing inflation hitting. It really is. We're seeing that come through in just across the different cost bases. We're also seeing, of course, our D&R or decommissioning and restoration. We're spending more in that space as well. That's good expenditure, but it's also an element of inflation in there as well.

當然。所以關於運營支出或運營支出，艾米。所以今年，它上升了，大約是 390 億。我們看到的是，第一，有一點 Q4 效應，它總是與一些往往會產生的成本有關。但是，如果我退後一步，因為當然，這是我密切關注的事情。當您查看全年時，我們看到的是什麼增長？我們看到通貨膨脹正在襲來。確實如此。我們看到這只是在不同的成本基礎上實現的。當然，我們也看到了我們的 D&R 或退役和恢復。我們也在那個領域花費更多。這是很好的支出，但它也是通貨膨脹的一個因素。

We're also growing. So a number of those new investments that have come in, that OpEx for those new ones at the start is just more. We have to get on top of that, and it's higher than we're seeing in terms of the divestments that are coming through. So that's flowing as well.

我們也在成長。因此，許多新投資已經進入，這些新投資的運營支出在一開始就更多了。我們必須控制住這一點，而且它比我們所看到的正在發生的撤資要高。所以這也在流動。

And then finally, just the same as everyone else, the utility costs, of course, have increased this year. We're seeing it flow through our own results. Are we happy with it? No. Will it be an area of focus? Yes.

最後，與其他人一樣，今年的公用事業成本當然有所增加。我們看到它流過我們自己的結果。我們滿意嗎？不，這會是一個重點領域嗎？是的。

In terms of your second question, which was really around our exploration strategy, we have a great exploration team. And they're still very much focused on various areas. You're seeing some of the progress coming through in terms of Namibia and some other aspects as well. What you we're talking about specifically, I'm going to take it back to sort of our reserves numbers there as well. So you'll see our reserve replacement ratio, of course, at 120% for this year as well. But what I would look at there is we've often talked, of course, and you've heard us say many times about volume over value. But fundamentally, we want to see the longevity of our Upstream and IG businesses. These are fabulous businesses, and they're generating great returns, and we're very much focused on that.

關於你的第二個問題，這實際上是圍繞我們的勘探戰略，我們有一個很棒的勘探團隊。他們仍然非常關注各個領域。你看到了納米比亞和其他一些方面取得的一些進展。我們具體談論的是什麼，我也將把它帶回我們那裡的儲備數字。所以你會看到我們今年的儲備替代率當然也是 120%。但我想看到的是，我們經常談論，當然，你已經聽過我們多次談論數量超過價值。但從根本上說，我們希望看到上游和 IG 業務的長壽。這些都是很棒的業務，它們產生了豐厚的回報，我們非常關注這一點。

The reserves numbers that we see coming through, those are very much around the requirements that you have, the SEC reporting, and we adhere very, very closely to that. Of course, it does mean that some of the things just don't flow through in those numbers but are still producing and making us money. So very clearly, it is value over volume. Yes, so I hope that helps.

我們看到的儲備數字非常接近您的要求，美國證券交易委員會報告，我們非常非常嚴格地遵守這一點。當然，這確實意味著有些東西並沒有在這些數字中流過，但仍在生產並讓我們賺錢。很明顯，價值高於數量。是的，希望對您有所幫助。

Thank you for that, Sinead. And thanks, Amy. Giacomo? Dan, I understand Giacomo is next.

謝謝你，西尼德。謝謝，艾米。賈科莫？ Dan，我知道 Giacomo 是下一個。

Yes. The next question is from Giacomo Romeo at Jefferies.

是的。下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Giacomo Romeo。

Congratulations, Wael, for your excellent start of the new tenure here as CEO. Two questions left. First one is on Chemicals. We have seen a disappointing numbers and losses getting larger. Just wanted to understand whether there's anything you can do there on the cost side to mitigate some of these effects and whether what you're seeing in terms of the market right now if you start to see a little bit of an improvement.

Wael，祝賀你在擔任 CEO 的新任期中取得了出色的開端。剩下兩個問題。第一個是關於化學品的。我們看到令人失望的數字和越來越大的損失。只是想了解您是否可以在成本方面做些什麼來減輕其中的一些影響，以及如果您開始看到一點點改善，您現在在市場方面是否看到了什麼。

The second question is on liquefaction. You give us a liquefaction guidance for the first quarter. And it looks just over the -- what you reported for this -- for Q4, and it's -- which was a quarter where you had quite a bit of hiccups. So I'm just wondering what shall we expect in terms of if this range you give for first quarter, it should be a reliable level of liquefaction that we can apply for the following quarters in 2023 or whether we could see an improvement there.

第二個問題是關於液化的。您給我們提供了第一季度的液化指導。它看起來剛剛結束——你為此報告的——第四季度，這是一個你有很多小問題的季度。所以我只是想知道，如果你給第一季度的這個範圍，我們應該期待什麼，它應該是一個可靠的液化水平，我們可以在 2023 年的以下幾個季度申請，或者我們是否可以在那裡看到改進。

Thank you very much, Giacomo. Do you want to talk about liquefaction? I can touch on Chemicals.

非常感謝，賈科莫。你想談談液化嗎？我可以談談化學品。

Sure. I'll be very short on the liquefaction. We put it out quarter-to-quarter, of course, because it is the best estimate that we have at the time, Giacomo. So it's a good estimate for where we are seeing for Q1. We obviously have a different phasing for turnarounds, et cetera. We don't tend to bring -- go out with those in advance. So you'll see that play out over the year as it's phased. But what you're seeing is a very good estimate for Q1.

當然。我會很短的液化。當然，我們按季度發布，因為這是我們當時最好的估計，Giacomo。因此，這是對我們在第一季度看到的位置的一個很好的估計。我們顯然對周轉等有不同的階段。我們不傾向於帶 - 提前出去。所以你會看到它在一年中分階段進行。但你所看到的是對第一季度的一個非常好的估計。

Thanks, Sinead. And Giacomo, with your question around Chemicals. I think there's a couple of things that we're looking at. Firstly, of course, we're at the bottom of the cycle on Chemicals. So it's painful where we are, but this is a cyclical sector, of course. The structural, there's little we can do about at this stage. The performance we're very focused on. So indeed, we're looking at all opportunities to be able to pull levers that we can, whether that's from a cost perspective or how do we enhance the top line. That's what the team is focused on and continuing to drive hard at the moment.

謝謝，西尼德。還有 Giacomo，關於化學品的問題。我認為我們正在研究幾件事。首先，當然，我們處於化學品週期的底部。所以我們所處的位置很痛苦，但當然這是一個週期性行業。在結構上，現階段我們無能為力。我們非常關注性能。因此，事實上，我們正在尋找所有機會，以便能夠拉動槓桿，無論是從成本角度還是我們如何提高頂線。這就是團隊目前關注並繼續努力的目標。

In addition to that, we continue to play out the strategy that we have, which is shifting more and more away from commodity chemicals to intermediate and to performance chemicals. That's an important part of it, and we have some good opportunities to continue to do that. Earlier, we talked about Shell Polymers Monaca. The whole point of continuing to certify these 40 grades is to continue to actually add value to the molecules we have and to the pellets we have and to be able to make sure that we maximize the return that we get from selling those. So all sorts of ideas being worked to ensure that we counter the cyclicality and are ready when we start to move back up the cycle to be able to maximize value for our shareholders from that.

除此之外，我們繼續實施我們的戰略，即越來越多地從商品化學品轉向中間體和高性能化學品。這是其中很重要的一部分，我們有一些很好的機會繼續這樣做。早些時候，我們談到了 Shell Polymers Monaca。繼續認證這 40 個等級的全部意義在於繼續為我們擁有的分子和我們擁有的顆粒增加實際價值，並能夠確保我們從銷售這些產品中獲得的回報最大化。因此，各種想法都在努力確保我們能夠應對周期性，並在我們開始重新回到週期時做好準備，以便能夠從中為我們的股東創造最大價值。

Thank you, Giacomo, for the question.

謝謝 Giacomo 提出的問題。

The next question is from Peter Low at Redburn.

下一個問題來自 Redburn 的 Peter Low。

Just one and one more on Integrated Gas. Clearly, a very strong result. Is (inaudible) say to help us try and quantify the contribution from trading and optimization. I guess what I'm trying to gauge to what extent this was an exceptional quarter versus being within the range of normal volatility you actually expect within that business. So yes, any color around that would be very helpful.

關於集成氣體的只是一個又一個。顯然，這是一個非常強大的結果。是（聽不清）說幫助我們嘗試和量化交易和優化的貢獻。我想我想衡量的是，這在多大程度上是一個特殊的季度，而不是在您對該業務實際預期的正常波動範圍內。所以是的，周圍的任何顏色都會非常有幫助。

Okay. Thank you for that, as well, Peter. Do you want to say a word on that?

好的。也謝謝你，彼得。你想就此說點什麼嗎？

Sure. I would say Q4 was a very strong trading quarter. It was exceptional in isolation, absolutely. But we tend to, as I've said before, really is good to look at it across the 12 months. So when you look at it across the 12 months, our Integrated Gas as an entirety to both the physical assets and the trading and optimization part have had a great year. It really is fabulous. And when you look at that, of course, trading and optimization has played a key role in that, but I wouldn't look at it from quarter-to-quarter. As I said, it's much, much better to look at it across the 12 months.

當然。我會說第四季度是一個非常強勁的交易季度。絕對是獨一無二的。但正如我之前所說，我們傾向於在 12 個月內審視它真的很好。因此，當您在過去 12 個月中查看它時，我們的綜合天然氣作為一個整體，無論是實物資產還是交易和優化部分，都表現出色。這真的很棒。當然，當你看到這一點時，交易和優化在其中發揮了關鍵作用，但我不會從一個季度到另一個季度來看待它。正如我所說，在 12 個月內審視它要好得多。

So the final question is from Jason Gabelman at Cowen.

所以最後一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Jason Gabelman。

My phone actually cut out on the part of that question, so I may be asking the same question I was just asked, and if so, I apologize. I actually have 2. The first one is on Integrated Gas. And there's clearly an elevated seasonality in the business, as you alluded to, that seems kind of underappreciated by the market. And I'm trying to understand how to quantify that. And I guess I'll ask the question in this way. 4Q was very strong. If we had a similar environment in 2Q or 3Q, do you have any sense of how much different the earnings would have been? Can you give us an order of magnitude on that?

我的電話實際上在那個問題的部分被切斷了，所以我可能會問我剛才被問到的同一個問題，如果是這樣，我道歉。實際上我有 2 個。第一個是 Integrated Gas。正如您所提到的，該行業的季節性顯然有所上升，這似乎被市場低估了。我正在嘗試了解如何對其進行量化。我想我會以這種方式提出問題。第四季度非常強勁。如果我們在第二季度或第三季度有類似的環境，您是否知道收益會有多大差異？你能給我們一個數量級嗎？

And then my second question is on the...

然後我的第二個問題是關於...

Sorry, Jason, we lost you when you started to talk about the second question. Can you repeat the second one?

抱歉，傑森，當你開始談論第二個問題時，我們失去了你。你能重複第二個嗎？

Business model. The way it was kind of communicated was add a lot of options in optimizing those electrons (inaudible) value chain, which I would have guessed included this retail energy business. If you decide to move away from retail energy in Europe and that removes one of the avenues to optimize those electrons, does that change how you think about the return profile potential of the renewable power business?

商業模式。它的溝通方式是在優化那些電子（聽不清）價值鏈時添加了很多選項，我猜這包括這個零售能源業務。如果您決定遠離歐洲的零售能源，這就消除了優化這些電子的途徑之一，這是否會改變您對可再生能源業務回報潛力的看法？

Thank you for that, Jason. I think I picked up the second one. Let me take a shot at both and build off what you said there, Sinead, on the first one. So Jason, I think the way to reflect on this and what Sinead had mentioned earlier is the importance of looking at this across 4 quarters. And what's important is that we typically have a portfolio that is geared towards the Northern Hemisphere winter. So we try to go -- to try to go longer in the Q4, Q1 months. And the way we do that typically is through supplementing our equity production with third-party volumes.

謝謝你，傑森。我想我拿起了第二個。讓我對兩者都進行一次嘗試，並在第一個問題上建立你在那裡所說的內容，Sinead。所以 Jason，我認為反思這一點的方式以及 Sinead 之前提到的是跨越 4 個季度來看待這個問題的重要性。重要的是，我們通常擁有適合北半球冬季的投資組合。所以我們試著去 - 嘗試在第四季度，第一季度的幾個月裡走得更遠。我們這樣做的方式通常是通過第三方產量來補充我們的股權生產。

So the best way to look at some of the underlying performance is just look at the volumes we provide on a -- over the last 2 years. And what you will see is quite some differences quarter-to-quarter in terms of that volume. Now I think what's important to recognize is there's different ways we create value in the Integrated Gas value chain. Of course, there is at the asset side, and you can see how much equity production we're selling. We then create a significant amount of value at the T&O side. And then there's a small piece that is also opportunistic as we play it.

因此，查看一些基本性能的最佳方法就是查看我們在過去兩年中提供的數量。你會看到，就該數量而言，季度與季度之間存在相當大的差異。現在我認為重要的是要認識到我們在綜合天然氣價值鏈中創造價值的方式不同。當然，在資產方面，你可以看到我們出售了多少股權產品。然後，我們在 T&O 方面創造了大量價值。然後有一小段在我們演奏時也是機會主義的。

My best advice is just look across the different quarters, look at the prices there, and you'll get a good sense of it. This is not about us trying to not be transparent, but of course, as Sinead also said earlier, our hedging, the way we price manage our exposure is such that we look at it over an entire year and not simply quarter-by-quarter. We don't manage it on a quarterly basis. And that's why you can see sometimes the disruptions on a quarterly basis as you did in Q3. It doesn't mean the fundamental business is not strong. It simply means that you have to look at it in a broader perspective.

我最好的建議是看看不同的區域，看看那裡的價格，你就會對它有一個很好的了解。這並不是說我們試圖不透明，但是當然，正如 Sinead 之前也說過的那樣，我們的對沖，我們對風險敞口進行定價的方式是這樣的，我們會在一整年而不是簡單地按季度查看它.我們不按季度管理它。這就是為什麼你有時會像第三季度那樣每季度看到一次中斷。這並不意味著基本業務不強大。它只是意味著你必須從更廣闊的角度來看待它。

On the -- on our decision around Shell Energy Retail and the broader value chain, the strategy continues to hold, which is we believe we can create more value out of a green electron than simply selling a green electron through a PPA. We do that through a few ways. One is we have a balance sheet, and we have a trading organization that can take merchant risk -- measured merchant risk, maybe 20%, 30%. And that allows us to be able to use that exposure to create incremental value beyond what a smaller operator can do.

關於我們關於殼牌能源零售和更廣泛價值鏈的決定，該戰略繼續保持不變，我們相信我們可以從綠色電子中創造更多價值，而不是簡單地通過 PPA 銷售綠色電子。我們通過幾種方式做到這一點。一是我們有資產負債表，我們有一個可以承擔商家風險的貿易組織——衡量的商家風險，可能是 20%、30%。這使我們能夠利用這種風險來創造超越小型運營商所能做到的增量價值。

We also have a huge B2B business that allows us to also cross-sell beyond the current molecules we're selling those businesses. We could also provide them green electrons. And so that's another avenue. A third avenue is indeed something like what we used to -- want to do with Shell Energy Retail. That works in other markets. It works for us in Australia. It works for us in the U.S. at the moment. It is not working in the U.K., and that's more to do with the structural nature of the market. So this is not a condemnation of B2C. It's more a fundamental issue in the structure of the market that we are currently operating in, which has, therefore, necessitated this review that is still ongoing without any firm decisions taken at this stage.

我們還有一個巨大的 B2B 業務，這使我們也可以交叉銷售我們正在銷售這些業務的當前分子。我們還可以為他們提供綠色電子。所以這是另一條途徑。第三條途徑確實類似於我們過去的方式——想與 Shell Energy Retail 合作。這適用於其他市場。它在澳大利亞對我們有用。它目前在美國對我們有用。它在英國不起作用，這更多地與市場的結構性有關。所以這不是對B2C的譴責。這更像是我們目前經營的市場結構中的一個基本問題，因此，有必要進行這項審查，這項審查仍在進行中，但現階段沒有做出任何堅定的決定。

Super. Jason, thank you for that. Dan, I think we're done, aren't we?

極好的。傑森，謝謝你。丹，我想我們已經完成了，不是嗎？

No. We do have one more question. We have a question from Alastair Syme at Citi.

不，我們還有一個問題。花旗的 Alastair Syme 向我們提出了一個問題。

Wael, can you talk a little bit about the Nature Energy acquisition, just the strategic rationale and any framework to help us think about the financials?

Wael，你能談談 Nature Energy 的收購，只是戰略依據和任何框架來幫助我們考慮財務狀況嗎？

And then as a follow-up, I'm not sure I quite got the point you're making on Upstream longevity. I guess the question is, do you think you can or want to grow your Upstream business? And I say that across the combined Upstream and IG (inaudible).

然後作為後續行動，我不確定我是否完全理解你對上游壽命的看法。我想問題是，您認為您可以或想要發展您的上游業務嗎？我說的是整個上游和 IG（聽不清）。

Yes. Thanks for that, Alastair. Do you want to start maybe with Nature Energy? I'll talk about the Upstream.

是的。謝謝你，阿拉斯泰爾。你想從自然能源開始嗎？我會談談上游。

Happy to. So indeed, thanks, Alastair. Glad we managed to fit it in. With respect to Nature Energy, so what do we see there? It was just a very logical strategic fit. When you look at the business that we have, so we have just such a huge customer base that is out there who have a strong need to decarbonize. And of course, you see that with both the convenience retail. You see that with aviation and stuff like that, but you also see beyond that. So what we're seeing, of course, is that with Nature Energy when we bought it, it is both cash-accretive and earnings-accretive as well. So those 2 things play out as it goes through. It has a range of projects in the hopper, which are coming up to both FID, and the team has just set it up very well for growth. So we're going to be able to take the amazing capability that they have in terms of actually generating these projects and be able to link it into the customers and create value in that sense.

高興。所以確實，謝謝，阿拉斯泰爾。很高興我們設法適應了它。關於自然能量，我們在那裡看到了什麼？這只是一個非常合乎邏輯的戰略契合。當您查看我們擁有的業務時，我們擁有如此龐大的客戶群，他們非常需要脫碳。當然，您可以通過便利零售看到這一點。你在航空和類似的東西上看到了這一點，但你也看到了除此之外的東西。因此，當然，我們看到的是，當我們購買 Nature Energy 時，它既能增加現金又能增加收益。所以這兩件事隨著它的進行而發揮作用。它在料斗中有一系列項目，這兩個項目都將提交給 FID，並且團隊剛剛為增長做好了準備。因此，我們將能夠利用他們在實際生成這些項目方面所擁有的驚人能力，並將其與客戶聯繫起來，並在這個意義上創造價值。

Thanks, Sinead. Alastair, to the question around longevity. We will go after the most attractive projects that come our way. We don't have a specific restriction where we're not going to go into oil or into gas. Clearly, we think we have more gas opportunities at the moment because we're able to add a lot of value. So yes, we are looking at growing our production in gas. And you can see it through our efforts on Integrated Gas, for example, what we did last year.

謝謝，西尼德。阿拉斯泰爾，關於長壽的問題。我們將追求我們遇到的最具吸引力的項目。我們沒有特定的限制，我們不會進入石油或天然氣領域。顯然，我們認為目前我們有更多的天然氣機會，因為我們能夠增加很多價值。所以是的，我們正在考慮增加我們的天然氣產量。你可以通過我們在綜合天然氣方面的努力看到這一點，例如，我們去年所做的。

On oil, what we're looking to do is to have just a much longer period of ability to be able to produce our oil profitably simply given where the world is. We continue to believe that oil has a role to play. A big part of what we announced a few years ago was how are we going to be able to move to actually prune the portfolio to high grade what we have as an Upstream business. I think we have done a lot of that, and therefore, what you see right now is a lot more strength and stability in that business, and I'd like to extend that strength and stability into the coming years.

在石油方面，我們希望做的是，只要考慮到世界所處的位置，我們就有能力在更長的時間內生產出有利可圖的石油。我們仍然相信石油可以發揮作用。幾年前我們宣布的很大一部分內容是，我們將如何能夠真正修剪投資組合，使其成為我們作為上游業務所擁有的優質產品。我認為我們已經做了很多，因此，您現在看到的是該業務的強大和穩定，我想將這種強大和穩定擴展到未來幾年。

Let me pause there, and thank you, Alastair, for the last question. And thank you all for your questions and for joining the call. Wishing you all a very pleasant end of the week and hope that you can join my team at our LNG outlook later this month as well as our annual ESG update in March. Thank you, everyone.

讓我暫停一下，謝謝阿拉斯泰爾提出的最後一個問題。感謝大家提出問題並加入電話會議。祝大家週末愉快，並希望您能加入我的團隊，參加本月晚些時候的液化天然氣展望以及 3 月份的年度 ESG 更新。謝謝大家。