殼牌 (SHEL) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Shell's Second Quarter 2022 Financial Results Announcement. Shell's CEO, Ben van Beurden; and CFO, Sinead Gorman, will present the results, then host a Q&A session. (Operator Instructions). We will now begin the presentation.

歡迎閱讀殼牌 2022 年第二季度財務業績公告。殼牌首席執行官 Ben van Beurden；首席財務官 Sinead Gorman 將介紹結果，然後主持問答環節。 （操作員說明）。我們現在開始演示。

Hello. Sinead and I welcome you to our second quarter results presentation. It was a turbulent quarter for the world and the global economy. The war in the Ukraine continued, destroying lives and disrupting supplies of food and energy, and aggravating the life of so many more through high energy prices and the cost of living crisis. It all reinforces the importance of getting the balance right. We need a system that provides secure supply of energy that is reliable and low carbon and affordable. And governments play a crucial part in achieving this balance, not least because that policies affect our long-term investment planning. And we need reliable policies that ensure a stable supply of energy products today and significant investments in the energy system of tomorrow. For example, by speeding up reviews for offshore wind projects and allowing the accelerated tax depreciation of renewable assets.

你好。 Sinead 和我歡迎您參加我們的第二季度業績報告。對於世界和全球經濟來說，這是一個動蕩的季度。烏克蘭的戰爭仍在繼續，摧毀了生命，破壞了食品和能源的供應，並通過高昂的能源價格和生活成本危機加劇了更多人的生活。這一切都強調了保持平衡的重要性。我們需要一個能夠提供可靠、低碳且價格合理的安全能源供應的系統。政府在實現這種平衡方面發揮著至關重要的作用，尤其是因為這些政策會影響我們的長期投資規劃。我們需要可靠的政策來確保當今能源產品的穩定供應以及對未來能源系統的重大投資。例如，通過加快對海上風電項目的審查並允許可再生資產加速稅收折舊。

But we know we also have a significant role to play. And Shell has been taken action in Q2 to deliver the energy the world needs today. In the North Sea, in the short term, we are adding vital gas production by completing the refit of a floating production storage and offloading vessel to produce natural gas from the [PS oilfields]. It's expected to start delivering gas as soon as this autumn. And we have taken the final investment decision for the Jackdaw fields, which has the potential to supply more than 6% of the U.K.'s gas production in the years ahead.

但我們知道我們也可以發揮重要作用。殼牌已在第二季度採取行動，提供當今世界所需的能源。在北海，短期內，我們正在通過完成浮式生產儲油卸油船的改裝來增加重要的天然氣產量，以便從 [PS 油田] 生產天然氣。預計最早將於今年秋天開始輸送天然氣。我們已經對寒鴉氣田做出了最終投資決定，該氣田有可能在未來幾年供應英國 6% 以上的天然氣產量。

And for the medium to longer term, we've also taken a final investment decision on the Crux field in Australia, which will provide gas for Prelude, our floating LNG facility. And we see significant value to come from our investment in the North Field East expansion in Qatar. But at the same time, we're also taking action to accelerate as an energy transition company. So in the Netherlands, we are building an electrolyzer that makes hydrogen for wind power. Holland Hydrogen I will be one of Europe's largest renewable hydrogen plants once it's operational in 2025. In fact, Shell owns and operates around 10% of the global electrolyzer capacity. And we plan to add further capacity through a strong funnel of hydrogen projects.

對於中長期而言，我們還對澳大利亞的 Crux 油田做出了最終投資決定，該油田將為我們的浮式液化天然氣設施 Prelude 提供天然氣。我們認為，我們對卡塔爾北部油田東擴建項目的投資具有巨大價值。但與此同時，作為一家能源轉型公司，我們也在採取行動加快步伐。所以在荷蘭，我們正在建造一個電解槽，為風力發電製造氫氣。一旦在 2025 年投入運營，Holland Hydrogen I 將成為歐洲最大的可再生氫工廠之一。事實上，殼牌擁有並運營著全球約 10% 的電解槽產能。我們計劃通過強大的氫項目漏斗來增加產能。

So our company is truly changing. It's transforming for the future. And we are setting ourselves up for that success in the transformation. Just look at the foundations that we have built over the past decade. We have become more disciplined. We become more resilient. And we have become a more profitable business.

所以我們公司正在真正發生變化。它正在為未來而轉變。我們正在為轉型的成功做好準備。看看我們在過去十年中建立的基礎。我們變得更有紀律。我們變得更有彈性。我們已經成為一個更有利可圖的企業。

Now the key similarity between today and how our operating environment looked in 2013 is the oil price. The average price of $108 a barrel for the first half of 2022 is almost what it was in the first half of 2013. But Shell has transformed since then, both financially and operationally. Over the first 6 months of this year, our adjusted earnings are up 65% compared with the first half of 2013. And in the same period, comparatively, our organic free cash flow tripled, and we have doubled our shareholder distributions. In fact, this quarter, our cash distributions were the highest ever.

現在，今天與 2013 年我們的運營環境的主要相似之處在於油價。 2022 年上半年每桶 108 美元的平均價格幾乎是 2013 年上半年的水平。但從那時起，殼牌在財務和運營方面都發生了轉變。今年前 6 個月，我們的調整後收益與 2013 年上半年相比增長了 65%。而在同一時期，我們的有機自由現金流增加了兩倍，我們的股東分配增加了一倍。事實上，本季度，我們的現金分配是有史以來最高的。

And we have done all that safely and responsibly. Our teams achieved 83% fewer process safety incidents and 32% lower Scope 1 and 2 carbon emissions. That's emissions from our operations and the energy that we use to run that. So what changed? Well, we have high-graded our portfolio, divested around $80 billion worth of assets and doubled down on integrated value delivery. And as a result, in our Integrated Gas business, we now sell over 2x more LNG, while our CFFO per barrel increased more than fivefold over the same period. And our upstream portfolio is much more concentrated, leading to 21% lower production, while our upstream CFFO per barrel increased by 74%.

我們已經安全、負責任地完成了所有這些工作。我們的團隊減少了 83% 的過程安全事故和 32% 的範圍 1 和 2 碳排放。那是我們運營產生的排放和我們用來運行它的能源。那麼發生了什麼變化？好吧，我們已經對我們的投資組合進行了高評級，剝離了價值約 800 億美元的資產，並在綜合價值交付方面翻了一番。因此，在我們的綜合天然氣業務中，我們現在的液化天然氣銷量增加了 2 倍以上，而同期我們的每桶 CFFO 增加了 5 倍以上。而且我們的上游產品組合更加集中，導致產量下降 21%，而我們的上游每桶 CFFO 增加了 74%。

So yes, energy prices are very high today, but they have been so before. And the real difference is that, today, we are performing much better in a similar price environment. And we are confident about the future because we have a strong capital framework and an energy transition plan that our shareholders firmly supported at our Annual General Meeting in May. So we are increasing our shareholder distributions with a $6 billion share buyback program for the next quarter.

所以，是的，今天的能源價格非常高，但以前一直如此。真正的區別在於，今天，在類似的價格環境中，我們的表現要好得多。我們對未來充滿信心，因為我們擁有強大的資本框架和能源轉型計劃，我們的股東在 5 月的年度股東大會上堅定支持。因此，我們正在通過下一季度 60 億美元的股票回購計劃來增加我們的股東分配。

Now Sinead can tell you more about our results and these distributions.

現在 Sinead 可以告訴您更多關於我們的結果和這些分佈的信息。

Our performance in the second quarter was strong amid volatile energy prices. Our adjusted earnings were $11.5 billion. We saw stronger performance in Upstream, Products, and Renewables and Energy Solutions, or RES. Our adjusted EBITDA was more than $23 billion, and we delivered $18.7 billion of cash flow from operations. Our trading and optimization results across our businesses were strong overall, especially in Gas and Power and our RES business.

在能源價格波動的情況下，我們在第二季度的表現強勁。我們調整後的收益為 115 億美元。我們看到上游、產品、可再生能源和能源解決方案（RES）的表現更為強勁。我們調整後的 EBITDA 超過 230 億美元，我們從運營中獲得了 187 億美元的現金流。我們所有業務的交易和優化結果總體上都很強勁，尤其是在天然氣和電力以及我們的可再生能源業務方面。

That brings me to our financial framework. The $6 billion share buyback program we announced today is expected to be completed by the time of our Q3 results announcement. And we expect our shareholder distributions to remain in excess of 30% of CFFO with the current energy sector outlook. Our net debt further decreased to $46.4 billion this quarter. And we will continue to strengthen our balance sheet given where we are in the cycle. We will be disciplined with the investment decisions we make and expect our cash capital expenditure to be in the $23 billion to $27 billion range for 2022.

這讓我想到了我們的財務框架。我們今天宣布的 60 億美元股票回購計劃預計將在我們公佈第三季度業績時完成。在當前能源行業前景下，我們預計我們的股東分配將保持在 CFFO 的 30% 以上。本季度我們的淨債務進一步降至 464 億美元。鑑於我們在周期中的位置，我們將繼續加強我們的資產負債表。我們將嚴格遵守我們做出的投資決策，並預計到 2022 年我們的現金資本支出將在 230 億美元至 270 億美元之間。

So without doubt, our delivery this quarter reflects the macroeconomic environment. But even more so, it reflects the transformation of Shell into a more disciplined and a more resilient company. We are using our financial strength to benefit society through secure energy supplies and to benefit our shareholders to increase distributions and to position the company for the future of energy. Thank you.

因此，毫無疑問，我們本季度的交付反映了宏觀經濟環境。但更重要的是，它反映了殼牌轉變為一家更有紀律、更有彈性的公司。我們正在利用我們的財務實力通過安全的能源供應造福社會，並讓我們的股東受益，以增加分配並為公司的未來能源定位。謝謝你。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Well, thank you for joining us today, and we hope that after watching this presentation, you have a strong sense of how Shell is transforming. We continue to invest in energy security and the energy transition to provide the energy that the world needs today, but also in the future. So Sinead and I will be answering your questions today. And please as usual could we just have 1 or 2 each, so that everyone has the opportunity to ask questions. And with that, could I have the first one, please, Elaine?

好的，感謝您今天加入我們，我們希望您在觀看本次演示後，對殼牌正在發生的變化有深刻的了解。我們繼續投資於能源安全和能源轉型，以提供當今世界以及未來所需的能源。所以 Sinead 和我今天將回答你的問題。請像往常一樣，每個人只有 1 個或 2 個，這樣每個人都有機會提問。有了這個，我可以要第一個嗎，伊萊恩？

We will take our first question from Lydia Rainforth from Barclays.

我們將向來自巴克萊的 Lydia Rainforth 提出我們的第一個問題。

Two questions, if I could. And it is notable that how interested the level of cash flow is, and I know that reflects a significant transformation. And 2 questions here. One on the financial frame, and I'm just wondering why are with additional buybacks and not the increase in -- and not increase the dividend? And I'm just -- and just within that, on the $6 billion buyback, should we now be thinking about that as $6 billion a quarter if this environment stays for next year? So just a little bit more detail about this on the financial frame.

兩個問題，如果可以的話。值得注意的是，對現金流水平的興趣有多大，我知道這反映了重大轉變。這裡有2個問題。一個關於財務框架的問題，我只是想知道為什麼會有額外的回購而不是增加——而不是增加股息？我只是 - 就在這 60 億美元的回購中，如果這種環境持續到明年，我們現在是否應該將其視為每季度 60 億美元？因此，請在財務框架上詳細說明這一點。

And then a second one, just in terms of the low carbon business, clearly, there's been a lot that has been done, but there's still lots of those value chains that have to be defined. So are you seeing more opportunities as -- now in this environment? Just obviously, we are seeing higher interest rates, some businesses are changing very fast. I'm just wondering how you're seeing opportunities in that space effectively.

然後是第二個，就低碳業務而言，顯然已經做了很多工作，但仍有很多價值鏈需要定義。那麼，在這種環境下，您是否看到了更多機會？很明顯，我們看到了更高的利率，一些企業的變化非常快。我只是想知道您如何有效地看到該領域的機會。

Yes. Thanks very much, Lydia, and I hope you're doing well. Good to hear you. Let me take the second question first, and then Sinead will talk a little bit about the financial framework, and the dividend question, I think, we sort of anticipated.

是的。非常感謝，莉迪亞，我希望你一切都好。很高興聽到你的聲音。讓我先回答第二個問題，然後 Sinead 將談一談財務框架，以及股息問題，我認為，我們有點預期。

On low carbon, indeed, the RES business is doing well. You see very strong results. We're pleased with that. But to your question, we indeed also do see more opportunities. But then again, let me just explain that the opportunities are not necessarily just more investments in commodity-producing assets. We see more opportunities in building new businesses. So we see more opportunities every quarter, again, by companies coming through us and say, we have a pledge to be at net zero or we want to reduce our carbon emissions. But we need help to do this. How can you help us?

在低碳方面，RES 業務確實做得很好。你會看到非常強大的結果。我們對此感到高興。但對於你的問題，我們確實也看到了更多的機會。但話又說回來，讓我解釋一下，機會不一定只是對商品生產資產的更多投資。我們看到了建立新業務的更多機會。因此，我們每個季度都會看到更多的機會，再次，來自我們的公司說，我們承諾實現淨零排放，或者我們希望減少碳排放。但我們需要幫助才能做到這一點。你可以怎樣幫助我們？

And our sort of customer-backed strategy and our overall strategy of basically decarbonizing our customers' use of energy is really helping us identify these opportunities, whether that is, indeed, more sustainable aviation fuels for the aviation business or for the customers of the aviation business that come through us to find ways and means to decarbonize their travel, or whether this is, for instance, through heavy-duty road transport companies who come to us for hydrogen or trucking companies who see the opportunities there as well. We see a lot of new businesses coming up.

我們以客戶為後盾的戰略，以及我們對客戶能源使用基本脫碳的總體戰略，確實幫助我們發現了這些機會，無論是對航空業務還是航空客戶而言，這確實是更可持續的航空燃料通過我們尋找方法和手段為他們的旅行脫碳的業務，或者這是否是，例如，通過重型公路運輸公司來找我們尋求氫氣或卡車運輸公司也看到了那裡的機會。我們看到許多新業務正在湧現。

Now of course, many of the business models with it are still immature, need to be proven out. So we talked in the video about Holland Hydrogen I. The ultimate business model is going to be for heavy-duty road transport. That business model, of course, still needs to be built out. So while the opportunities are there, we also see that we have to go on a joint learning curve with our customers and with governments to make sure that these opportunities crystallize. But I am more confident than ever, particularly also with the sort of macro environment and geopolitical environment that we are seeing today, that this trend will accelerate.

當然，現在很多使用它的商業模式仍然不成熟，需要被證明。所以我們在視頻中談到了 Holland Hydrogen I。最終的商業模式將是重型公路運輸。當然，這種商業模式仍然需要建立。因此，雖然機會存在，但我們也看到我們必須與我們的客戶和政府共同學習，以確保這些機會具體化。但我比以往任何時候都更有信心，尤其是在我們今天看到的那種宏觀環境和地緣政治環境下，這種趨勢將會加速。

But let's talk a little bit about the financial framework.

但是讓我們談談財務框架。

Thanks very much. And Lydia, good to hear from you. So indeed, we've chosen together with $6 billion of share buyback this quarter. And the debate, of course, that happened internally in the same as what is on your mind at the moment, is whether it should be dividend or should it be buyback.

非常感謝。還有莉迪亞，很高興收到你的來信。因此，我們確實選擇了本季度 60 億美元的股票回購。當然，內部發生的辯論與您目前的想法相同，是應該分紅還是應該回購。

And the way we looked at it was from an excess cash point of view, we want to allocate it according to value. And that's very important to us. And frankly speaking, where the share price is at the moment, it made sense to, therefore, go for the share buybacks. And that $6 billion, just because you added the question there, is specifically for Q3. And we expect that $6 billion buyback to be executed by the Q3 results, so by the time we come out with it then.

我們看待它的方式是從超額現金的角度來看，我們希望根據價值進行分配。這對我們來說非常重要。坦率地說，目前股價在哪裡，因此進行股票回購是有道理的。而這 60 億美元，僅僅因為你在那裡添加了問題，專門用於第三季度。我們預計 60 億美元的回購將在第三季度的結果中執行，所以當我們拿出它的時候。

And I guess just one other point to remind you, of course, is that in Q2, we effectively distributed $7.4 billion between the buybacks that we did in the quarter in terms of cash and in terms of the dividend. And I believe that's the highest we've actually ever done. So I hope that gives you some perspective of the thought process, Lydia.

當然，我想還有一點要提醒你的是，在第二季度，我們在本季度進行的回購中有效地分配了 74 億美元的現金和股息。我相信這是我們實際上做過的最高水平。所以我希望這能讓你對思考過程有一些看法，莉迪亞。

We will take our next question from Biraj Borkhataria from RBC.

我們將向 RBC 的 Biraj Borkhataria 提出我們的下一個問題。

Two please. So the first one is on CapEx. As you're starting, I guess, to plan the 2023 budget, could you say what level of inflation you're sort of baking into your spending for next year? And then maybe specifically for a project like Jackdaw, which you recently sanctioned, relative to what you put forward in 2021, can you talk about the difference in costs that project will be before and after?

請給兩個。所以第一個是資本支出。我想，當你開始計劃 2023 年的預算時，你能說一下你對明年支出的通貨膨脹程度嗎？然後可能專門針對您最近批准的像寒鴉這樣的項目，相對於您在 2021 年提出的建議，您能談談該項目之前和之後的成本差異嗎？

And then the second question is on the Pennsylvania cracker, which is due to start up. Is there any sense you can give more specific timing on both the start-up for that project and also the timing to get to full capacity?

然後第二個問題是關於即將啟動的賓夕法尼亞餅乾。您是否可以就該項目的啟動和滿負荷運轉的時間給出更具體的時間安排？

Yes. Thanks, Biraj. Let me take Pennsylvania and then the first questions will be dealt with by Sinead. So Pennsylvania, we're done building it. Now there's always a phase when you are completing construction and go into start-up mode. We try to do it as gradual as possible. And of course, we have in a way been starting up support systems and utilities already for many quarters. But over the summer, we will indeed start bringing production on gradually. It's very important we do that safely and reliably. And therefore, we do not put pressures on our teams to say, you have to have product done by x date. Everybody understands that today's environment is a good environment to start producing in.

是的。謝謝，比拉傑。讓我以賓夕法尼亞為例，然後第一個問題將由 Sinead 處理。所以賓夕法尼亞州，我們已經完成了建設。現在總有一個階段是您完成構建並進入啟動模式。我們盡量做到循序漸進。當然，在某種程度上，我們已經在多個季度啟動了支持系統和實用程序。但在夏天，我們確實會逐漸開始生產。我們安全可靠地做到這一點非常重要。因此，我們不會對我們的團隊施加壓力，要求您必須在 x 日期之前完成產品。每個人都明白，今天的環境是一個開始生產的好環境。

But I would imagine that somewhere in the third quarter, we will make a lot of good progress. And I would imagine that somewhere in the fourth quarter, this will be running more or less at design capacity. And next year, I think it should contribute to full pound too with good results, which will be very welcome, of course, because this is a very advantaged project because of its feedstock cost, but also because of the location where it is, in the middle of the large plastics demand in Northeast North America.

但我可以想像，在第三季度的某個時候，我們會取得很大的進步。我想在第四季度的某個時候，這將或多或少地以設計能力運行。明年，我認為它也應該為全磅做出貢獻並取得良好的效果，這將是非常受歡迎的，當然，因為這是一個非常有利的項目，因為它的原料成本，而且因為它所處的位置，在北美東北部中部塑料需求量大。

But -- Sinead, over to you.

但是——Sinead，交給你了。

Thanks, Biraj. And particularly so the 2 parts in a way to that first question. So first of all, as we go into 2023, we are looking to, of course, start going through our planning cycle. We will start setting our CapEx for next year. As we've said for 2022, very much within the $23 billion to $27 billion range. We are, of course, seeing inflationary pressures coming through. That is happening already. But of course, a company of our size has the benefits of being able to have the size and the volume that comes through.

謝謝，比拉傑。尤其是第一個問題的兩部分。因此，首先，隨著我們進入 2023 年，我們當然希望開始完成我們的計劃週期。我們將開始設置明年的資本支出。正如我們所說的 2022 年，在 230 億美元到 270 億美元的範圍內。當然，我們正在看到通脹壓力正在蔓延。這已經在發生了。但是，當然，像我們這樣規模的公司具有能夠擁有規模和規模的優勢。

We're seeing things like steel being very much pressurized at the moment, in terms of sort of 18% or so of inflation. But we run on framework agreements which allow us to be able to lock in prices over a period of time with certain volumes. So we don't see that full amount coming through as well. It means we have a very resilient supply chain, which allows us to mitigate some of those inflationary pressures.

目前，我們看到鋼鐵之類的東西受到了很大的壓力，通貨膨脹率達到了 18% 左右。但是我們根據框架協議運行，這使我們能夠在一段時間內以一定的數量鎖定價格。因此，我們也沒有看到全部金額。這意味著我們有一個非常有彈性的供應鏈，這使我們能夠減輕其中的一些通脹壓力。

You talked about Jackdaw specifically. We're very pleased to, as you say, take FID on Jackdaw, you are correct. It has taken longer than we would have hoped for. Of course, that was outside of our control. But beyond that, we do see some pressures coming through with respect to Jackdaw, but the economics remain very size. And as I said before, we have some of those contracts locked in already. Thank you.

你特別談到寒鴉。正如你所說，我們很高興對寒鴉採取 FID，你是對的。它花費的時間比我們希望的要長。當然，這不在我們的控制範圍內。但除此之外，我們確實看到有關寒鴉的一些壓力，但經濟規模仍然很大。正如我之前所說，我們已經鎖定了其中一些合同。謝謝你。

We'll take our next question from Christyan Malek from JPMorgan.

我們將向摩根大通的 Christyan Malek 提出下一個問題。

Congratulations on the results. So 2 questions. First of all, just in terms of back to the financial frame, and how you think about sort of aligning your sort of macro outlook in the context of a sort of clear line of sight in terms of how you think about dividend and buyback mix going forward. It does feel at the moment somewhat reactive to the macro outlook as opposed to sort of more proactive in terms of providing sort of a more explicit frame, given you've now broken through a 30% threshold. And you used to provide that range, but now seems that we'd be heading to 40-50. So if you can provide any sort of visibility in the context of how you see macro and how you think about anchoring your financial frame in the context of that.

祝賀結果。所以2個問題。首先，就回到財務框架而言，以及您如何考慮在您如何看待股息和回購組合的清晰視野的背景下調整您的宏觀前景向前。鑑於您現在已經突破了 30% 的門檻，目前它確實感覺對宏觀前景有些反應，而不是在提供更明確的框架方面更主動。你曾經提供過這個範圍，但現在似乎我們將走向 40-50。因此，如果您可以在您如何看待宏觀以及您如何考慮在此背景下錨定您的財務框架的背景下提供任何形式的可見性。

And then the second question is around sort of the high-grading of your portfolio as you done so successfully. Are there any assets, particularly within the upstream piece, that you feel -- or sort of within the portfolio that you feel are missing and -- like demographic region? And to that end, would you sort of reconsider some of the assets which you have up to sale now that you, as you point out then, the macro outlook is very different? And maybe being more prescriptive around it, for example, in Nigeria, where it looks very different now in the context will the opportunity and others a bit. We don't know about that you may be rethinking.

然後第二個問題是關於你的投資組合的高等級，因為你成功地做到了。是否有任何資產，特別是在上游部分，你覺得 - 或者你覺得在投資組合中缺少什麼 - 比如人口統計區域？為此，您是否會重新考慮您現在要出售的一些資產，正如您當時指出的那樣，宏觀前景非常不同？也許在它周圍更具規範性，例如，在尼日利亞，現在在環境中看起來非常不同，機會和其他人會有點不同。我們不知道您可能正在重新考慮。

Thanks, Christyan. Let me have a stab at both and then I'm sure that Sinead may want to add a little bit on the first one. What I will cover on the first one, Christyan, is the sort of link between the macro that you referenced. So we are -- particularly if you look at the energy outlook, we are actually quite bullish. If you look at where we are today with supply-demand balances, the market is very tight. And there's not a lot of spare capacity around. OPEC hardly has any spare capacity. You could think of a little bit more coming out of Shell's. Strangely enough, the [SBR] release has actually helped, but that's hardly a price management tool, of course. So we are running out of steam a little bit in coming with supply-side solutions.

謝謝，克里斯蒂安。讓我對兩者都進行一次嘗試，然後我確定 Sinead 可能想在第一個上添加一點。我將在第一個中介紹，Christyan，是您引用的宏之間的那種鏈接。所以我們 - 特別是如果你看一下能源前景，我們實際上非常看好。如果你看看我們今天的供需平衡情況，市場非常緊張。而且周圍沒有太多的備用容量。歐佩克幾乎沒有任何閒置產能。你可以想到殼牌的更多。奇怪的是，[SBR] 版本確實起到了幫助作用，但這當然不是一個價格管理工具。因此，我們在提供供應方解決方案方面有點力不從心。

And on the demand side, we haven't even seen a full recovery to 2019 type of demand. So my concern is that we will have a very tight situation, a lot of volatility now. Sometimes we can benefit a lot from volatility, but I think that will continue to persist.

在需求方面，我們甚至還沒有看到 2019 年的需求完全恢復。所以我擔心的是，我們現在的情況會非常緊張，波動很大。有時我們可以從波動中受益匪淺，但我認為這將繼續存在。

But the other thing to bear in mind, which may not be a very popular thing to say, but it is a fact is that the impact on Russia in terms of self-sanctioning and all sorts of other actions that have been taken has actually been quite minimal. The volume of crude coming out of Russia has been diminished, but only with a few hundreds of thousands of barrels a day, not a sort of 2 million or 3 million that were originally foreseen. That might actually change in the new year when the real sanctions are starting to bite. So I think we're going to see a tight situation for some time to come. And then I haven't spoken yet about gas in Europe, and the impact that it has on the global LNG market. So all together, I think there is more upside risk than downside risk.

但是要記住的另一件事，可能不是很受歡迎的事情，但事實是，俄羅斯在自我制裁和採取的各種其他行動方面的影響實際上已經非常少。來自俄羅斯的原油數量已經減少，但每天只有幾十萬桶，而不是最初預計的 200 萬或 300 萬桶。當真正的製裁開始生效時，這實際上可能會在新的一年發生變化。所以我認為我們將在未來一段時間內看到緊張的局勢。然後我還沒有談到歐洲的天然氣，以及它對全球液化天然氣市場的影響。所以總的來說，我認為上行風險大於下行風險。

Now what does it mean for our financial framework. I will say one thing and then maybe Sinead can add to it, is we have changed the philosophy on our payout from one where we want to, first of all, earn the cash and then distribute. And that's why we are saying, the payout that we will see in the next quarter depends on how much we made in the last 4 quarters on average, and that will continue. So it is more a payout mechanism than a sort of forecasting mechanism that you will have to get used to here.

現在這對我們的財務框架意味著什麼。我會說一件事，然後也許 Sinead 可以補充一下，我們是否已經改變了我們的支付理念，從我們想要的一種方式開始，首先，賺取現金然後分配。這就是為什麼我們要說，我們將在下個季度看到的支出取決於我們在過去 4 個季度的平均收入，而且這種情況將繼續下去。因此，它更像是一種支付機制，而不是您必須在這裡習慣的一種預測機制。

On high-grading the portfolio, we have been high-grading quite comprehensively, as you will have seen. We probably sold more assets than our peer group combined. And of course, we invested quite significantly as well. BG, of course, being a large one, too. But I do think the trend that we have to deal with the tail assets, to deal with our lean portfolio is not going to change because we see very supportive economics at the moment.

如您所見，在對投資組合進行高評級時，我們一直在進行相當全面的高評級。我們出售的資產可能比同行組合的總和還要多。當然，我們也進行了相當大的投資。 BG，當然，也是一個大的。但我確實認為我們必須處理尾部資產、處理我們的精益投資組合的趨勢不會改變，因為我們目前看到了非常有利的經濟形勢。

You referenced Nigeria in there, Christyan. Nigeria, for us, the intent is very clear. We want to be out of onshore oil, no matter how the macro might perhaps change the outlook for those assets. And that is a case of risk management and appetite for dealing with the challenges onshore. So, no, I don't think there will be a big change, and our portfolio stands on tail assets. And -- but yes, the portfolio, of course, as a result of it is performing a whole lot better.

你在那裡提到了尼日利亞，克里斯蒂安。尼日利亞，對我們來說，意圖非常明確。我們希望擺脫陸上石油，無論宏觀可能如何改變這些資產的前景。這是風險管理和應對在岸挑戰的意願的一個案例。所以，不，我認為不會有很大的變化，我們的投資組合是尾部資產。而且 - 但是，是的，投資組合當然，因為它的表現要好得多。

Sinead, anything you would like to add on the financial frame?

Sinead，您想在財務框架上添加什麼？

I think just a small add to that, Ben, which is, Christyan, we've talked about 20% to 30% of distribution of CFFO through the cycle. And that's very much what this is about. But what is effectively happening here, what we're saying is, in effect, we have a hard floor and we have a soft ceiling. And that's what you're seeing. When the appropriate moment is there, we distribute an awful lot more than that, you saw it last quarter with $7.4 billion of distributions. And you're seeing it what we're suggesting now, which is, of course, $6 billion of share buybacks, and of course, the usual dividend of $1.8 billion to $1.9 billion as well. So these are significant sums of money. All in all, a quarter to be proud of.

我認為只是補充一點，Ben，也就是 Christyan，我們已經討論了 CFFO 在整個週期中分配的 20% 到 30%。這就是它的主要內容。但是這裡實際上正在發生的事情，我們所說的是，實際上，我們有一個硬地板，我們有一個軟天花板。這就是你所看到的。當適當的時候，我們分配的數量遠不止於此，您在上個季度看到了 74 億美元的分配。你看到了我們現在的建議，當然是 60 億美元的股票回購，當然還有通常的 18 億至 19 億美元的股息。所以這些都是一筆可觀的錢。總而言之，這是值得驕傲的四分之一。

Our next question is from Irene Himona from Societe Generale.

我們的下一個問題來自法國興業銀行的 Irene Himona。

Congratulations on these results. 2 questions, please. Firstly, could you perhaps give us an indication of what you expect the North Sea windfall tax to cost Shell? And then secondly, as you mentioned, your customers approach you seeking to decarbonize their energy. Do you get a sense of whether it is reasonable to expect that due to the complete immaturity of these value chains, due to the fact that actually markets do not yet exist, your returns can actually be quite significant?

祝賀這些結果。 2個問題，請。首先，您能否告訴我們您預計北海的意外之財稅會給殼牌公司帶來多少成本？其次，正如您所提到的，您的客戶會接近您，尋求使他們的能源脫碳。你是否知道，由於這些價值鏈的完全不成熟，由於實際上市場還不存在，你的回報實際上可能相當可觀，這是否合理？

Thanks, Irene. That's a really good second question. I will take that first and I will ask Sinead to talk about the windfall tax. Well, the short version of the answer is, yes, we do. Because we believe, ultimately, there is more value that customers will put on product attributes that really help them with a stated problem than what you can make if you serve commodity markets by being just a little bit better than the next person.

謝謝，艾琳。這是一個非常好的第二個問題。我會先拿那個，然後我會請 Sinead 談談意外之財稅。嗯，答案的簡短版本是，是的，我們這樣做。因為我們相信，最終，客戶將更多的價值賦予產品屬性，真正幫助他們解決一個既定的問題，而不是如果你通過比下一個人更好一點來服務於商品市場，你可以做出什麼。

So -- and take as an example our V-Power business, I've used this, I think, before. But we make really very good profits and very good margins on V-Power simply because of the quality of the product and the appeal that it has for customers. And that is not because we have better refineries for making this particular grade of fuel, it is because it's a superior product that customers are prepared to pay a premium for.

所以 - 以我們的 V-Power 業務為例，我想，我以前用過這個。但是我們在 V-Power 上獲得了非常好的利潤和非常好的利潤，這僅僅是因為產品的質量和它對客戶的吸引力。這並不是因為我們有更好的煉油廠來生產這種特殊等級的燃料，而是因為它是一種優質產品，客戶願意為之支付溢價。

Now the analog for that does exist in the energy transition as well. Customers who have a need to deal with the energy transition challenges will pay a premium if you provide a product that will help them there, which could be indeed just a plain vanilla products, like clean electricity, or it could be a product which is equipped with attributes like risk management, continuity of supply, or other attributes like, for instance, negative emissions, et cetera, et cetera. And that's where we see the value. We are harvesting that value. And we believe there is a much bigger business buyout there for us to go after. And we believe we are uniquely placed because we have the best brand in the industry. And we have a lot of experience with the attributes that are going to be needed for customers, like risk management and indeed like superior formulations. So it's a bit of an article of faith, on the one hand, Irene. But on the other hand, we have plenty of analogs to prove that it works. Sinead?

現在，能量轉換中也確實存在類似的情況。需要應對能源轉型挑戰的客戶將支付額外費用，如果您提供可以幫助他們的產品，這實際上可能只是普通的產品，如清潔電力，也可能是配備具有風險管理、供應連續性等屬性或其他屬性，例如負排放等。這就是我們看到價值的地方。我們正在收穫這種價值。而且我們相信那裡有更大的業務收購供我們追求。我們相信我們是獨一無二的，因為我們擁有業內最好的品牌。我們在客戶需要的屬性方面擁有豐富的經驗，例如風險管理，甚至是優質配方。因此，一方面，艾琳，這有點像信條。但另一方面，我們有很多類似物可以證明它有效。西奈德？

Thanks, Ben. Thanks, Irene. On the topic of windfall tax or the Energy Profits Levy, of course, it was enacted on the 14th of July. So what we're seeing is it's not hitting Q2. But what we expect to see in Q3 is around about $420 million of an impact on deferred tax. So you'll see that come through in our Q3 results as well. But beyond that, very relaxed as a sense of the windfall tax. We know how it's going to hit on this. We know that we've got the ability to continue to invest in the U.K. as we've discussed before. So we are very much focused on Jackdaw, on being able to get that asset through with the associated ability to see deductions with that as well. Thank you.

謝謝，本。謝謝，艾琳。當然，關於暴利稅或能源利潤稅的話題，它是在 7 月 14 日頒布的。所以我們看到的是它沒有達到第二季度。但我們預計在第三季度會看到約 4.2 億美元的遞延稅款影響。因此，您也會在我們的第三季度業績中看到這一點。但除此之外，作為暴利稅的感覺非常輕鬆。我們知道它將如何影響這一點。正如我們之前討論過的，我們知道我們有能力繼續在英國投資。因此，我們非常專注於寒鴉，能夠通過相關的能力來獲得該資產，同時也可以看到相關的扣除。謝謝你。

Our next question is from Christopher Kuplent from Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Christopher Kuplent。

Two hopefully quick ones for me. Ben, maybe for you, because it's kind of next door, what's your view on the Groningen gas field becoming a possible solution to Europe's gas crisis? And I'm not asking you because Shell is involved, but giving us a bit of an update on where you think the political debate stands today.

對我來說有兩個希望很快的。 Ben，也許對你來說，因為它就在隔壁，你對格羅寧根氣田成為歐洲天然氣危機的可能解決方案有何看法？我問你不是因為殼牌參與其中，而是向我們提供一些關於你認為今天政治辯論的最新情況。

And secondly, I wanted to see what your views are about the long list of potential FIDs in fresh LNG coming out of the U.S. and whether you believe there are some interesting opportunities there to act not as an equity owner as you're doing in Qatar, but actually as an offtaker considering a number of these operators that are proposing to build these terminals may not have the balance sheet to do so without offtake support. Hopefully, those will be quick.

其次，我想看看您對來自美國的新鮮 LNG 中的一長串潛在 FID 的看法，以及您是否認為那裡有一些有趣的機會，可以不像您在卡塔爾那樣充當股權所有者，但實際上作為承購商，考慮到許多提議建造這些碼頭的運營商，如果沒有承購支持，可能沒有資產負債表來這樣做。希望這些會很快。

Very good questions, Christopher. When you say next door, I'm not sure whether you refer to next door overseas or next door to Germany, because, of course, a lot of the question also come out of Germany, as I'm sure you are aware. On [Groningen] well, I can be very quick on it and just say, well, basically, this is for the government to decide that it is. And it -- we have no say -- nor do we want to have a say in making the very difficult trade-off between public safety or perceptions of public safety and security of supply. But in case you haven't really picked up on the sort of sentiment of the dialogue in the Netherlands, now the government is very clear. We want to use it as the very, very last resort. And only if indeed, it is almost sort of like a matter of life and death, if hospitals and schools and et cetera are getting sort of starved of gas, then maybe we want to consider it. And we're good with that. I think that is a good position to take. And we, of course, follow that debate with as much interest as many others in Europe. I hope it won't come to that, Christopher, to be perfectly honest.

很好的問題，克里斯托弗。當你說隔壁時，我不確定你是指海外的隔壁還是德國的隔壁，因為當然，很多問題也來自德國，我相信你知道。在 [格羅寧根] 好吧，我可以很快就說，好吧，基本上，這是由政府決定的。它——我們沒有發言權——我們也不想在公共安全或對公共安全的看法與供應保障之間進行非常困難的權衡時擁有發言權。但如果你還沒有真正理解荷蘭對話的那種情緒，現在政府已經很清楚了。我們想把它用作最後的手段。只有當這確實有點像生死攸關的問題時，如果醫院和學校等等變得有點缺乏汽油，那麼也許我們要考慮一下。我們對此很滿意。我認為這是一個很好的立場。當然，我們與歐洲其他許多人一樣，對這場辯論充滿興趣。說實話，克里斯托弗，我希望不會到那種地步。

On U.S. LNG, yes, indeed, we participate in U.S. LNG on the terms that you suggest, yes, so as an offtaker, which can be advantageous. There's not as many, by the way, as we used to have, i.e., 2 FIDs so far this year. But we are keen to understand how they can help us in our book of supply sources. But to invest, I'd much rather bet on the [AECO] versus JKM Delta than the Henry Hub to Europe at this point in time. For the long run, I believe that is a better bet for us to invest in. But it doesn't mean that we wouldn't participate as an offtaker in North American projects. Thanks, Christopher.

關於美國液化天然氣，是的，確實，我們按照您建議的條款參與美國液化天然氣，是的，因此作為承購商，這可能是有利的。順便說一句，沒有像我們以前那樣多，即今年到目前為止，有 2 個 FID。但我們很想了解它們如何在我們的供應來源書中幫助我們。但要進行投資，我更願意押注 [AECO] 與 JKM Delta，而不是此時的 Henry Hub 到歐洲。從長遠來看，我認為這對我們來說是一個更好的投資選擇。但這並不意味著我們不會作為承購商參與北美項目。謝謝，克里斯托弗。

We will take our next question from Martijn Rats from Morgan Stanley.

我們將向摩根士丹利的 Martijn Rats 提出下一個問題。

I've got 2. First of all, I recognize that a lot of questions have already been asked about the dividend and the financial framework. And I do appreciate the observation that the shares are cheap, and therefore, there is a preference for share buybacks. But I was wondering if you -- if it had been part of your consideration that perhaps the reason why the shares might be so cheap is that the dividend is too low. As in -- I'm a bit worried that we end up in a sort of cycle where the shares are cheap, then excess cash is used for buybacks. It's not translated in dividend growth, the shares stay cheap. And the observation -- the next time round will still be cheap. So we better do buybacks because the shares are so cheap. I was wondering what you would say to that logic.

我有 2 個。首先，我承認已經提出了很多關於股息和財務框架的問題。我確實很欣賞股票便宜的觀察，因此，人們傾向於股票回購。但我想知道您是否 - 如果您考慮的一部分是股票可能如此便宜的原因可能是股息太低。就像——我有點擔心我們最終會進入一個股票便宜的周期，然後多餘的現金被用於回購。它沒有轉化為股息增長，股價保持便宜。並且觀察 - 下一輪仍然很便宜。所以我們最好進行回購，因為股票太便宜了。我想知道你會對這種邏輯說什麼。

And the second question I wanted to ask relates to LNG, and particularly LNG trade. I recently revisited some of the observations in the IEA's net zero documents from last year. And although there is a much stronger story for gas in the long run than, say, for oil, it struck me how fast LNG trade actually declines in that scenario. Basically, after 2030, it really starts to deteriorate very, very fast in the IEA scenario. And I was wondering if this is any sort of impact on your sort of willingness or appetite to do new LNG liquefaction projects on that type of time around? Is that entering your considerations?

我想問的第二個問題與液化天然氣有關，尤其是液化天然氣貿易。我最近重新審視了去年 IEA 淨零文件中的一些觀察結果。儘管從長遠來看，天然氣的故事比石油要好得多，但在這種情況下，液化天然氣貿易實際上下降的速度有多快讓我感到震驚。基本上，在 2030 年之後，在 IEA 的情景中，它真的開始非常非常快地惡化。我想知道這是否會對您在這種情況下進行新的液化天然氣液化項目的意願或興趣產生任何影響？這是否進入您的考慮範圍？

Thanks, Martijn. I think you did a dividend question one more time, but this particular version of it. But let me, first of all, talk a little bit about the IEA and the role of LNG in it. Yes, you're right. Of course, we have to bear in mind that the IEA is a normative scenario, Martijn. So it's, in other words, working back from a preordained outcome and then basically drawing a sort of linear line to how would you get there. So if you now look at that scenario, which is a bit over a year old, and you sort of track the progress against how we are doing in that -- with that one year into it, then we are more than 2.5 years behind already. So in other words, we are traveling in the opposite direction. So that shows a little bit how challenging it is to sort of turn the big ship around. And we may, of course, have wishes and hopes and expectations that it will get better. But for now, it's not.

謝謝，馬丁。我想你又做了一次股息問題，但這是它的特定版本。但首先讓我談談 IEA 和 LNG 在其中的作用。你是對的。當然，我們必須記住，IEA 是一個規範場景，Martijn。所以，換句話說，就是從一個預定的結果開始工作，然後基本上畫一條直線來確定你將如何到達那裡。因此，如果您現在看一下這種情況，它已經有一年多的歷史了，並且您可以根據我們在這方面的表現來跟踪進展情況——一年之後，我們已經落後了超過 2.5 年.所以換句話說，我們正朝著相反的方向前進。因此，這表明了讓這艘大船掉頭是多麼具有挑戰性。當然，我們可能會有希望、希望和期望，它會變得更好。但就目前而言，它不是。

So therefore, I don't want to put too much cold water on the IEA report. But I think it is important to have a reality check and just say, well, is this really happening? And if it's not happening, why would that be? And maybe this has to do something with demand not being decarbonized rather than supply not disappearing fast enough.

因此，我不想對 IEA 報告潑太多冷水。但我認為進行現實檢查很重要，然後說，好吧，這真的發生了嗎？如果它沒有發生，為什麼會這樣？也許這與需求沒有脫碳有關，而不是供應沒有足夠快地消失。

But having said that though, I'm very mindful of the fact that we cannot continue to grow the LNG pie without decarbonizing that either. So therefore, we have a very clear philosophy that whatever project we undertake, so we build the asset, which is, of course, a portion of the value chain, it could be at risk if all of a sudden, there is no carbon budget for it anymore, whatever we build needs to be carbon competitive. And, therefore, we are pursuing projects like LNG Canada. And the projects that we are pursuing on top of it need to be having even better carbon credentials because the risk is indeed there -- or the risk, the reality is going to be there, that when we get to net zero, we have to have indeed a reduction in LNG carbon intensity and in LNG itself as well.

但話雖如此，但我非常注意這樣一個事實，即我們不能在不脫碳的情況下繼續發展液化天然氣餡餅。因此，我們有一個非常明確的理念，即無論我們進行什麼項目，我們都會構建資產，當然，資產是價值鏈的一部分，如果突然之間沒有碳預算，它可能會面臨風險對於它來說，無論我們建造什麼都需要具有碳競爭力。因此，我們正在尋求像加拿大液化天然氣這樣的項目。我們在此基礎上追求的項目需要擁有更好的碳證書，因為風險確實存在——或者風險，現實將會存在，當我們達到淨零時，我們必須確實降低了液化天然氣的碳強度以及液化天然氣本身。

Now you will also see that a large part of our LNG portfolio is indeed a traded portfolio. So we take energy from somebody else's assets and add value to it that comes to us. And therefore, we have a lot of flexibility to flex depending on where the world will go, how fast it will go and what detours it will take to get to net zero in 2050. That's our stated strategy. And so far, I think it proves to be the right strategy.

現在您還將看到，我們的 LNG 投資組合中有很大一部分確實是可交易的投資組合。因此，我們從別人的資產中獲取能量，並為我們帶來的價值增加價值。因此，我們有很大的靈活性可以根據世界的發展方向、發展速度以及在 2050 年實現淨零排放需要走多少彎路來靈活調整。這是我們既定的戰略。到目前為止，我認為這被證明是正確的策略。

But on the dividend.

但在股息上。

Indeed, it's a popular topic. The first part of your question, am I worried about a vicious circle? No, I'm not. This is a choice that we have to make. And we're very, very conscious by making that choice in the quarter, which is what we've done in this quarter. What is very clear, of course, is by doing the buybacks, it creates dividend capacity in the future. I'm very aware of that, and it's a conversation we have regularly. So this gives us flexibility to look at the dividend per share and to have a sustainable and meaningful dividend in the future when the time is right. Thank you.

確實，這是一個熱門話題。你問題的第一部分，我擔心惡性循環嗎？不，我不是。這是我們必須做出的選擇。我們非常非常有意識地在本季度做出選擇，這就是我們在本季度所做的。當然，非常清楚的是，通過回購，它可以在未來創造分紅能力。我非常清楚這一點，這是我們經常進行的對話。因此，這使我們能夠靈活地查看每股股息，並在未來適當的時候獲得可持續且有意義的股息。謝謝你。

We will take our next question from Giacomo Romeo from Jefferies.

我們將向 Jefferies 的 Giacomo Romeo 提出我們的下一個問題。

And 2 questions. First one is, if I can, again, on dividend. And perhaps just looking at your decision to increase your oil price, back in particular, your long-term view on -- longer-term view on the oil price, just wondering how that fits within your broader view of sustainability of your dividend.

和2個問題。如果可以的話，第一個是股息。也許只是看看你提高油價的決定，特別是你對油價的長期看法——對油價的長期看法，只是想知道這如何符合你對股息可持續性的更廣泛看法。

And then the second question is on LNG. And you think you talked at the end of last year about a return to normalized liquefaction volumes by the end of the second quarter. Obviously, a lot has changed since then, Sakhalin in particular. But just wondering where we stand in that respect, and particularly regarding Atlantic LNG, Energia LNG. Where -- what sort of time line do you think you'll be able to get back to a normalized level of utilization?

然後第二個問題是關於液化天然氣的。你認為你在去年年底談到了在第二季度末恢復正常化的液化量。顯然，從那以後發生了很多變化，尤其是薩哈林島。但只是想知道我們在這方面的立場，特別是關於大西洋液化天然氣、能源液化天然氣。在哪裡 - 您認為您能夠恢復到正常使用水平的時間線是什麼？

Okay. Very good. Thank you, Giacomo. And let me take the first question and then Sinead will talk about LNG utilization and the normalization of the outages that you were referring to. And I think I already partly answered it in response to the previous question. So yes, indeed, we do have a bullish outlook on oil and gas prices generally, and then, of course, particularly, of course, in areas of greater stress like in Europe. And that is why we are also quite confident to say that, hey, if the conditions that we are witnessing today are persisting, then we -- yes, we expect to be paying out more than 30% of our cash flow. And of course, this is a cash flow that is also already significantly higher. So it is a higher percentage of a higher cash flow. And you will see, indeed, the effect that it has on numbers like the $7.4 billion record payout in Q2, which we're going to beat in this quarter.

好的。很好。謝謝你，賈科莫。讓我回答第一個問題，然後 Sinead 將討論液化天然氣的利用以及您所指的中斷的正常化。我想我已經部分回答了前面的問題。所以是的，確實，我們確實總體上看好石油和天然氣價格的前景，當然，當然，尤其是在歐洲等壓力更大的地區。這就是為什麼我們也很有信心說，嘿，如果我們今天目睹的情況持續存在，那麼我們 - 是的，我們預計將支付超過 30% 的現金流。當然，這是一個已經明顯更高的現金流。因此，它是較高現金流量的較高百分比。事實上，你會看到它對第二季度創紀錄的 74 億美元支出等數字的影響，我們將在本季度擊敗這一數字。

So indeed, confidence in the macro should translate for you in confidence in payouts that we are going to be able to pay. And therefore, I do think that if you want to sort of come back to the dividend, the dividend is very sustainable at the level where it is. It's $7.5 billion a year roughly and at a 4% growth. With the buybacks that we are doing, the absolute dividend quantum is actually declining. And therefore, I would like to add to the point that Sinead made just now. So we are building -- every time we do a significant buyback, we are building a significant capacity for a dividend per share increase. So the buybacks eventually will crystallize in terms of value in the DPS increase. And that is the model that we have. That is the financial framework that we launched over a year ago. And that is how we intend to prosecute it.

因此，確實，對宏觀的信心應該轉化為您對我們將能夠支付的支出的信心。因此，我確實認為，如果你想回到股息，股息在目前的水平上是非常可持續的。每年大約為 75 億美元，增長率為 4%。隨著我們正在進行的回購，絕對股息數量實際上正在下降。因此，我想補充一下 Sinead 剛才提出的觀點。因此，我們正在建設 - 每次我們進行重大回購時，我們都在建設大幅增加每股股息的能力。因此，回購最終將在 DPS 增加的價值方面具體化。這就是我們擁有的模型。這就是我們一年多前推出的財務框架。這就是我們打算起訴它的方式。

Now on the LNG portion?

現在在液化天然氣部分？

Indeed. And Giacomo, thank you for that. I think you're referring back to where are we in terms of the strength of our equity volumes, our own production volumes across the LNG plants. So we have very strong performance in Q2, really proud of how the Integrated Gas business has operated there. What we saw, of course, was pretty back up and running in Q2. We will deal with some of the action afterwards. That's coming through. But particularly, we saw Peru and Trinidad and Tobago okay, back again, all being able to produce where they should be. And of course, Colibri has been added to that as well. What we do see, of course with Nigeria, LNG is still being impacted by some of the security issues. That is well known and not a surprise there. What you do see going forward, of course, is that we have taken out the Sakhalin equity volumes from our predictions for Q3, and that's what you'll see in terms of the noise going forward there.

的確。還有賈科莫，謝謝你。我認為您指的是我們在股權數量方面的實力，以及我們自己在液化天然氣工廠的產量。因此，我們在第二季度的表現非常強勁，為綜合天然氣業務在那裡的運營方式感到非常自豪。當然，我們所看到的在第二季度已經恢復正常運行。之後我們會處理一些動作。這是通過。但特別是，我們看到秘魯、特立尼達和多巴哥還好，又回來了，他們都能夠在他們應該去的地方生產。當然，Colibri 也被添加到其中。我們所看到的，當然是尼日利亞，液化天然氣仍然受到一些安全問題的影響。這是眾所周知的，並不奇怪。當然，你所看到的未來是我們已經從我們對第三季度的預測中剔除了薩哈林的股票交易量，這就是你將看到的未來噪音。

We will take our next question from Henri Patricot from UBS.

我們將向瑞銀的 Henri Patricot 提出我們的下一個問題。

I have 2 questions, please. The first one, following up on the topic of LNG and long-term opportunities. You mentioned that you've added Qatar. You've taken the Crux FID. Can you comment on some of the other pre-FID options and whether you come to the point where actually quite -- already have quite a locked in portfolio and then maybe a pause or are you still looking to kind of accelerate, in particular, about the Canada LNG expansion.

我有2個問題，請。第一個，跟進液化天然氣和長期機會的話題。你提到你已經添加了卡塔爾。你已經接受了 Crux FID。您能否評論一下 FID 之前的其他一些選項，以及您是否已經到了實際上已經相當鎖定投資組合的地步，然後可能會暫停，或者您是否仍在尋求加速，特別是關於加拿大液化天然氣擴張。

And then secondly, I wanted to ask about the Renewables segment, which had an exceptional quarter. And I wanted to get a sense here, to what extent you can continue to maintain, maybe not quite this level of performance, but something close to the first half result given we continue to see significant price volatility?

其次，我想詢問可再生能源部門，該部門有一個特殊的季度。我想在這裡了解一下，你可以在多大程度上繼續保持，也許不是這個水平的表現，但考慮到我們繼續看到顯著的價格波動，接近上半年的結果？

Thanks very much, Henri. Good questions. Sinead, would you like to take the second one? I will take the first one then.

非常感謝，亨利。好問題。 Sinead，你想拿第二個嗎？那我就拿第一個。

Yes. So with respect to the Renewable sector, you're exactly spot on, Henri. We've had very good first half performance. And of course, what you saw was with our RES segment, you saw actually $700 million of adjusted earnings in Q2. Now of course, what you're seeing there is that's coming from significant volatility, particularly within Europe. So remember, what we're seeing there is, of course, gas is an input power, as an output in, and that spark spread really giving us some room to make some money around the volatility. That is very much playing out in our results. That will change over time. That is not going to be a prediction of quarter-by-quarter. But what will occur, of course, is that we have many underlying businesses in there to do with solar, to do with wind and many others that are beginning to come through as well. So you'll start to see those coming more and more a large part of our results as well.

是的。因此，關於可再生能源領域，Henri，您完全正確。我們上半年的表現非常好。當然，您看到的是我們的 RES 部門，您實際上在第二季度看到了 7 億美元的調整後收益。當然，現在你看到的是來自劇烈波動，尤其是在歐洲。所以請記住，我們所看到的當然是，天然氣是一種輸入動力，作為一種輸出，這種火花傳播確實為我們提供了一些空間來圍繞波動性賺錢。這在我們的結果中非常重要。這會隨著時間而改變。這不會是一個季度一個季度的預測。但是，當然會發生的是，我們有許多與太陽能有關的潛在業務，與風能有關，還有許多其他業務也開始出現。因此，您將開始看到這些也越來越多地出現在我們的結果中。

Thanks, Sinead. And on LNG, of course, we have actually quite a big program going on at the moment. We are right in the middle of building the LNG Canada project, very large project. And you're right, Henri, we see also potential to do a third and a fourth train. But it is not an imminent FID. We want to, first of all, of course, finish trains 1 and 2.

謝謝，西奈德。當然，在液化天然氣方面，我們目前實際上正在進行一個相當大的計劃。我們正在建設加拿大液化天然氣項目，非常大的項目。你說得對，Henri，我們也看到了開第三和第四列火車的潛力。但這不是迫在眉睫的 FID。當然，我們首先要完成火車 1 和 2。

But -- then we have Qatar, which we will be in construction and spending phase on as we speak more or less. And of course, we have another set of opportunities that can come behind that. I hope they are familiar to you. So things like Tanzania, for instance. We are working, by the way, also on Train 7 in Nigeria and some other opportunities that are a bit further back in the funnel.

但是 - 然後我們有卡塔爾，當我們或多或少地談論時，我們將處於建設和支出階段。當然，我們還有另一組機會可以在這背後出現。我希望他們對你很熟悉。例如，像坦桑尼亞這樣的國家。順便說一句，我們也在尼日利亞的 7 號列車上工作，以及其他一些在漏斗中稍遠一些的機會。

But at this point in time, it is also really important that we look at market developments. So we are focusing on new LNG import capacity in Europe. So we've seen us sign an MOU for capacity in the Brunsbuttel Terminal in Northern Germany. But we've also taken capacity in the [Eemshaven] which is the large port that is actually on the border of Germany and the Netherlands, close to [Groningen] and that we're close to European gas infrastructure. And of course, we are looking at other opportunities as well in addition to what we already have in Europe. But that's an important part, too. It's not only at this point in time about developing new supply points, but also developing more optionality on the demand side. Thanks very much, Henri.

但在這個時間點，我們關注市場發展也非常重要。因此，我們專注於歐洲新的液化天然氣進口能力。因此，我們已經看到我們在德國北部的布倫斯比特爾碼頭簽署了容量諒解備忘錄。但我們也在 [Eemshaven] 增加了產能，該港口實際上位於德國和荷蘭的邊界，靠近 [格羅寧根]，而且我們靠近歐洲的天然氣基礎設施。當然，除了我們在歐洲已有的機會外，我們還在尋找其他機會。但這也是一個重要的部分。這不僅是在這個時間點上開發新的供應點，而且在需求方面也開發了更多的可選性。非常感謝，亨利。

Our next question comes from Peter Low from Redburn.

我們的下一個問題來自 Redburn 的 Peter Low。

Yes. It is a strong quarter. But chemicals is one area which is still struggling. Can you perhaps kind of go through what the primary driver of that weakness is? And kind of what has to happen to turn that around? And then secondly, just on CapEx. I think on the last call, you intimated you'd be towards the middle of $23 billion to $27 billion range. Is that still the case? Or is there any other color you can give on that today?

是的。這是一個強勁的季度。但化學品是一個仍在苦苦掙扎的領域。您能否了解一下導致該弱點的主要驅動因素是什麼？為了扭轉這種局面，必鬚髮生什麼？其次，就資本支出而言。我認為在最後一次電話會議上，你暗示你將接近 230 億美元至 270 億美元的範圍。還是這樣嗎？或者你今天可以給它其他顏色嗎？

Yes. Okay. If you do the CapEx one, I will take the chemicals one.

是的。好的。如果您進行資本支出一項，我將採取化學品一項。

So on CapEx, indeed, our range is very clear. It's $23 billion to $27 billion and we intend to remain very disciplined to remain within that range. In terms of will it be at the middle, will it be at the end? Difficult to tell at this point in time, Peter. So what we are saying is within the range, what you'll see is some of the new projects that are coming in, whether that was -- this quarter, the payment of the signature bonus in Brazil for Atapu, whether that is Project Sprng, which is the acquisition in India in terms of the renewables acquisition. All of those will come in within that range as well. So I won't go further than that apart from $23 billion to $27 billion and remaining disciplined.

因此，在資本支出方面，我們的範圍確實非常明確。這是 230 億到 270 億美元，我們打算保持非常自律，以保持在這個範圍內。就它會在中間，它會在最後嗎？彼得，目前很難說清楚。所以我們所說的是在這個範圍內，你會看到一些新的項目，無論是 - 本季度，在巴西為 Atapu 支付簽名獎金，無論是 Project Sprng ，這是在可再生能源收購方面在印度的收購。所有這些也將在該範圍內。因此，除了 230 億至 270 億美元並保持紀律性之外，我不會走得更遠。

And on Chemicals, indeed, the Chemicals results are not strong this quarter. That is because the chemical sector that we are exposed to is actually still at the low end, if not the bottom of the cycle. Now it's always difficult to compare chemicals with chemicals, if you look between the chemical competitors, but we are exposed to a different type of product package. Basically because we are not large in polyolefins, particularly not in North America, now we will fix that, of course, once we have Pennsylvania on stream. But that's, of course, a very significant moneymaker at this point in time that we don't partake in. As a matter of fact, we are more exposed still to base chemicals, and therefore, to the main cracker margin rather than the derivative chemicals -- derivative margins rather, that follow from that.

事實上，在化學品方面，本季度的化學品業績並不強勁。那是因為我們所接觸的化工行業實際上仍處於低端，如果不是周期的底部的話。現在，如果您在化學品競爭對手之間進行比較，總是很難將化學品與化學品進行比較，但我們接觸到的是不同類型的產品包裝。基本上因為我們在聚烯烴方面的規模不大，尤其是在北美，所以現在我們將解決這個問題，當然，一旦我們在賓夕法尼亞州投產。但這當然是目前我們不參與的一個非常重要的賺錢工具。事實上，我們仍然更多地接觸基礎化學品，因此，接觸主要裂解利潤而不是衍生產品化學品——而是衍生利潤，由此而來。

On top of it, if you again were to do compares and contrasts, of course, we are more exposed to European chemicals where we, of course, see higher energy costs as well. We're not atypical, by the way, our chemicals performance is good. And if you look across the cycle, Chemicals is one of the best-performing segments in the portfolio with strong double-digit returns. But it is a cyclical business, and it is a cyclical business that behaves differently for different companies depending on how they are exposed with their products to different parts of the economy.

最重要的是，如果您再次進行比較和對比，當然，我們更容易接觸歐洲化學品，當然，我們也會看到更高的能源成本。我們不是非典型的，順便說一下，我們的化學品性能很好。如果你縱觀整個週期，化學品是投資組合中表現最好的板塊之一，具有強勁的兩位數回報。但它是一種週期性業務，而且它是一種週期性業務，對於不同的公司而言，其行為會有所不同，具體取決於它們將產品暴露於不同經濟領域的方式。

We will take our next question from Lucas Herrmann from BNP.

我們將向法國巴黎銀行的盧卡斯赫爾曼提出下一個問題。

A couple, if I might. The first is just refining and to try and better understand the moving parts. Clearly, that the marker margin moved up pretty aggressively. I can see the volumes were somewhat more modest than the first quarter. But just is there anything that we should be or if you can make as aware of that should have led to lower capture than I think most of us would have assumed going into the quarter. And it's clearly evident from the trading statement.

一對，如果可以的話。第一個只是提煉並嘗試更好地理解移動部件。顯然，標記邊距非常積極地向上移動。我可以看到交易量比第一季度要溫和一些。但是，我們是否應該做任何事情，或者您是否可以意識到這一點應該導致捕獲量低於我認為我們大多數人在進入本季度時所假設的。從交易聲明中可以清楚地看出這一點。

And secondly, apologies, I kind of want to come back to the dividend and rebate again. And look, I agree entirely with the direction you're taking in terms of maintain the absolute dividend at particular level, increase the share count, so on and so forth. You're about 400 million shares down now on where you were, I think, a year ago. By the end of the year, depends on price, obviously, but given the guidance at present, it looks like you'll be about 800 million down, which is a 10% or so reduction in the absolute level, and I guess, allowing for the increased 6% [below where it] would be. So your breakeven is improving all the time, and your breakeven is low anyway, not least given the more bullish view on oil and gas prices into the medium term. So when do you actually prosecute on a potential rebase in dividend? Can you give us any indications of how you may be? thinking. Sorry, it was a bit long-winded.

其次，道歉，我有點想再次回到股息和回扣。看，我完全同意你在保持特定水平的絕對股息，增加股票數量等方面的方向。我認為，與一年前相比，你現在下跌了大約 4 億股。到年底，當然要看價格，但是按照目前的指導，看起來你會降8億左右，絕對水平下降10%左右，我猜，允許對於增加的 6% [低於它的位置]。因此，您的盈虧平衡一直在改善，而且您的盈虧平衡仍然很低，尤其是考慮到對中期石油和天然氣價格更為樂觀的看法。那麼，你什麼時候真正起訴潛在的股息變基？你能告訴我們你的情況嗎？思維。抱歉，有點囉嗦了。

No. That's okay, Lucas. It's -- I think they are 2 very good questions. And I think I will take them both. On the dividend, I think we more or less said everything. And then I think you summarized it very well as well. And you also illustrated with numbers, which are indeed the correct numbers, Lucas. We will be significantly retiring shares. So we'll buy back a very significant part of the company. And therefore, as I said before, and as Sinead also said, we are building up a significant capacity for dividend per share increase. And that's the way we want to have dividends and share buybacks interacting with each other. So rather than say, let's raise the dividend and I will buy back some shares, I would much rather do it the other way around. And that is the way we articulated the financial framework when we launched it back in 2021.

不，沒關係，盧卡斯。這是 - 我認為他們是 2 個非常好的問題。我想我會同時接受它們。關於股息，我認為我們或多或少說了一切。然後我認為你也總結得很好。你還用數字來說明，這確實是正確的數字，盧卡斯。我們將大幅淘汰股票。因此，我們將回購公司非常重要的一部分。因此，正如我之前所說，正如 Sinead 所說，我們正在建立一個顯著的增加每股股息的能力。這就是我們希望股息和股票回購相互影響的方式。所以與其說，讓我們提高股息，我會回購一些股票，我更願意反過來做。這就是我們在 2021 年推出財務框架時闡明財務框架的方式。

But it -- the timing of that, I think the only thing I can reasonably say about it is when the Board has decided to do so. And there is no news on that today. So I'm afraid that we do not have some sort of formulaic guidance of this is the moment when. But I hope you can see what it is that we are trying to achieve, and your logic is indeed completely impeccable.

但是，我認為我唯一能合理地說的就是董事會決定這樣做的時間。而且今天還沒有這方面的消息。所以恐怕我們現在還沒有某種公式化的指導。但我希望你能看到我們正在努力實現的目標是什麼，你的邏輯確實是完全無可挑剔的。

On refining, I heard you say lower capture and the marker margin. Yes, the sort of marker margin has gone up significantly. You will have seen that in the [QUN] note as well. If you are referring to, well, but I can't work out, and how with the rule of thumb, you have come to the results that you booked? It is basically because extrapolations with the rule of thumb in a single quarter over such a wide range simply don't work anymore. There is just too many variables in there for that to mathematically work out. It works in a small range, but not in a large range.

在精煉時，我聽說你說較低的捕獲和標記邊距。是的，這種標記邊距已經顯著上升。您也會在 [QUN] 註釋中看到這一點。如果您指的是，好吧，但我無法解決，根據經驗法則，您如何得出您預訂的結果？這基本上是因為在如此廣泛的範圍內用一個季度的經驗法則進行外推根本不再適用。那裡有太多的變量，無法從數學上計算出來。它在小範圍內有效，但在大範圍內無效。

But what is really working or what's really happening in the refining business, Lucas, is, of course, that we are very short refining and we are short products. And that is largely because of Russia. Of course, because a lot of Russian refining capacity is basically locked out. It's constipated because they cannot get every stream of the refining system out of the country. That part of the sanctioning -- self-sanctioning is working very well. But it's also because the products like diesel, for instance, are difficult to place, particularly because they tended to go to Europe, the same with chemical feedstocks. And therefore, everything in that field is going to be very tight. And it's going to be very tight for a while to come. I think the refining segment is going to be driven for a long time by the availability of middle distillates, so diesel, jet fuel, for which there is actually very limited price elasticity. But on top of it, we also see China not exporting for all sorts of reasons.

但是，盧卡斯在煉油業務中真正起作用或真正發生的事情當然是，我們的煉油時間很短，我們的產品很短。這主要是因為俄羅斯。當然，因為俄羅斯很多煉油能力基本上都被鎖定了。這是便秘，因為他們無法將煉油系統的每一條流線都運出該國。制裁的那一部分——自我制裁運作良好。但這也是因為柴油等產品難以放置，特別是因為它們往往會流向歐洲，化學原料也是如此。因此，該領域的一切都將非常緊張。未來一段時間會非常緊張。我認為煉油部門將在很長一段時間內受到中間餾分油供應的推動，例如柴油、航空燃料，其價格彈性實際上非常有限。但除此之外，我們還看到中國出於各種原因不出口。

So I think this tightness is going to persist for some time, not forever. So we're not in the golden age of refining. Or if it is golden age, it will be a relatively short-lived one. So ultimately, everything will revert back to mean again. But at this point in time, yes, we are seeing a dislocation that we are indeed benefiting from, not only in our refining system, but also because we have the most capable trading team to really take advantage of the opportunities that it brings. Thanks, Lucas.

所以我認為這種緊張會持續一段時間，而不是永遠。所以我們還沒有處於提煉的黃金時代。或者如果是黃金時代，那將是一個相對短暫的時代。所以最終，一切都會重新回到意義。但在這個時間點，是的，我們看到了一種錯位，我們確實從中受益，不僅在我們的煉油系統中，而且因為我們擁有最有能力的交易團隊來真正利用它帶來的機會。謝謝，盧卡斯。

Our next question will come from Paul Cheng from Scotiabank.

我們的下一個問題將來自豐業銀行的 Paul Cheng。

Ben, the world seems to be in the type of war between the recession fear and the supply concern, and commodity prices are very strong. Under this cost current, I mean, how internally, that when you guys are looking at next year budget at equity level, shareholder return, balance sheet positioning, I mean how do you factor the fear of recession or the recession risk into the thinking? And is there any positioning that you guys will do differently as a result? That's the first question.

Ben，世界似乎處於衰退恐懼和供應擔憂之間的戰爭中，大宗商品價格非常強勁。在當前成本下，我的意思是，在內部，當你們從股權水平、股東回報、資產負債表定位來看明年預算時，我的意思是，你們如何將對經濟衰退的恐懼或經濟衰退風險納入思考？有沒有什麼定位會讓你們做不同的結果？這是第一個問題。

Second question, with the natural gas situation in Europe, does it in any shape or form change the way how you look at the hydrogen investment over there? Will you change the pace? Or that that's not how you guys will decide or that's the decision process?

第二個問題，就歐洲的天然氣形勢而言，它是否會以任何形式改變您對那裡的氫投資的看法？你會改變節奏嗎？或者這不是你們將如何決定或這就是決策過程？

Thank you, Paul. I'll have Sinead talk about recession fear. The only thing I will say about it is that we are not as bearish as a lot of people are when it comes to recessions. On Europe and natural gas, well, it's -- let me say 2 things about it. First of all, the whole idea that we can also do blue hydrogen in Europe, so in other words, take natural gas, reformat and do CCS with CO2, that I think is a little bit difficult, of course, with the sort of gas prices that we are seeing. So I think for some while, Europe will focus very much on making green hydrogen. So hydrogen out of electricity -- renewable electricity. And maybe over time, indeed, will also look at importing hydrogen, which can then be also blue hydrogen, for instance, if it comes out of gas-rich countries.

謝謝你，保羅。我會讓 Sinead 談談對衰退的恐懼。我唯一要說的是，在經濟衰退方面，我們並不像很多人那樣悲觀。關於歐洲和天然氣，好吧，讓我說兩件事。首先，我們也可以在歐洲做藍氫，換句話說，用天然氣，重新格式化，用二氧化碳做 CCS，我認為這有點困難，當然，用那種氣體我們看到的價格。所以我認為在一段時間內，歐洲將非常專注於製造綠色氫。所以氫沒有電——可再生電力。也許隨著時間的推移，事實上，也會考慮進口氫氣，例如，如果它來自天然氣豐富的國家，那麼它也可以是藍色氫氣。

But when it comes to hydrogen, we are driven in the long run by the value of hydrogen in the transportation system. Of course, at the moment, there is no hydrogen-based transportation system that has to be built. So the large hydrogen plant that we are building in Rotterdam will actually be using the hydrogen to feed our refinery and make the products in that refinery a little bit greener, for which we get a regulatory premium, which pays more or less for the CapEx. But then ultimately, of course, value uplift needs to come from building out a transportation hydrogen infrastructure through Europe. That is not going to really compete or be driven by natural gas. That is going to be much more driven by how can you make this against middle distillates.

但是，當談到氫時，從長遠來看，我們會受到運輸系統中氫的價值的驅動。當然，目前還沒有必須建造的氫基運輸系統。因此，我們在鹿特丹建造的大型氫氣工廠實際上將使用氫氣來為我們的煉油廠提供燃料，並使該煉油廠的產品更加環保，為此我們獲得了監管溢價，這或多或少地支付了資本支出。但最終，當然，價值提升需要來自於在歐洲建設運輸氫基礎設施。這不會真正競爭或由天然氣驅動。這將更多地取決於您如何針對中間餾分進行此操作。

And again, how fast the transportation companies or the customers of transportation companies want to decarbonize the logistics that they depend on. And we believe there is a tremendous potential there, and of course, also a tremendous driver from governments to make these things happen. And then I think it's much more determinant for how the hydrogen business will develop in Europe than what might happen with natural gas. Sinead.

同樣，運輸公司或運輸公司的客戶希望以多快的速度使他們所依賴的物流脫碳。我們相信那裡有巨大的潛力，當然，政府也是推動這些事情發生的巨大動力。然後我認為氫業務在歐洲的發展方式比天然氣可能發生的情況更具決定性。西奈德。

And Paul, you asked about what really would happen in terms of how do we plan for whether there's going to be a recession or not. And we're going through the planning process at the moment. We're just kicking it off. So it's a great timing to ask the question. We run our plan with scenarios. We look at the what if, what could happen in different scenarios. And we plan accordingly. So we look at if that scenario were to happen, what will be the CapEx level we will be comfortable with to ensure our balance sheet remains strong and our returns to our investors equally remain compelling and strong. We run that through. And that means we will vary the investments that we make. But fundamentally, what we're looking for is, for each of the investments we make, what is that return we're going to get? And we look at that investment by investment and stress test it, high scenario, low scenario and broad based scenario. And that allows us to be prepared. We don't wait for it to happen. We know what our creaming curve is and we know what we're going to do when it hits us and if it hits us.

保羅，你問到關於我們如何計劃是否會出現衰退，真正會發生什麼。我們目前正在完成規劃過程。我們剛剛開始。所以現在是問這個問題的好時機。我們用場景來運行我們的計劃。我們看看假設，在不同的情況下會發生什麼。我們相應地計劃。因此，我們研究如果這種情況發生，我們將感到滿意的資本支出水平將是多少，以確保我們的資產負債表保持強勁，我們對投資者的回報同樣保持引人注目和強勁。我們通過它。這意味著我們將改變我們所做的投資。但從根本上說，我們正在尋找的是，對於我們所做的每一項投資，我們將獲得多少回報？我們通過投資和壓力測試來看待這項投資，高情景、低情景和基礎廣泛的情景。這使我們能夠做好準備。我們不會等待它發生。我們知道我們的奶油曲線是什麼，我們知道當它擊中我們以及如果它擊中我們時我們將要做什麼。

We have Jason Kenney from Santander.

我們有來自桑坦德的 Jason Kenney。

Looking for some guidance on the Renewable & Energy Solutions business because it was a relatively low key contributor to EBITDA 2020, '21. And then your 4Q rolling EBITDA at $1.5 billion is quite a step up actually. And so I don't know if you've got in your mind what an EBITDA from that business could be by the middle of the decade. I know you're aiming to double the external power sales, terawatt hours by 2030. But what kind of uplift are you going to get from pipeline gas sales? What portion of revenues do you think renewables could be or a portion of EBITDA? Any kind of split in that business in the direction of travel and the magnitude of change over the next few years would be very interesting?

尋找有關可再生能源和能源解決方案業務的一些指導，因為它是 EBITDA 2020, '21 的一個相對較低的關鍵貢獻者。然後，您的 4Q 滾動 EBITDA 為 15 億美元，實際上是一個很大的進步。所以我不知道你是否想過到本世紀中期，該業務的 EBITDA 可能是多少。我知道您的目標是到 2030 年將外部電力銷售量翻一番，即太瓦時。但是您將從管道天然氣銷售中獲得什麼樣的提升？您認為可再生能源可能佔收入的哪一部分或 EBITDA 的一部分？該業務在發展方向上的任何形式的分裂以及未來幾年的變化幅度會非常有趣嗎？

Great question, Jason. And I'm going to give it to in Sinead first and then see whether I can add something to it.

好問題，傑森。我會先把它交給 Sinead，然後看看我是否可以添加一些東西。

Yes. It's also a difficult one, Jason as well. So I think there's 2 parts to this business. There is the fact that we have, as I said before, so the gas and power, the trading around it, being able to deliver that to the end customers. And what, of course, you're seeing at the moment and what you're pointing out perfectly is that over the last year, that spark spread, that difference between gas as the input and power as the output, that has created a huge amount of volatility between them. And we've been able to trade around that incredibly well. And that's what you're seeing on. I think you used $1.5 billion, which is approximately we'll have a go in terms of the full year -- sorry, the fourth quarter EBITDA.

是的。這也是一個困難的，傑森也是。所以我認為這項業務有兩個部分。事實上，正如我之前所說，我們擁有天然氣和電力，圍繞它進行交易，能夠將其交付給最終客戶。當然，你現在看到並且完美指出的是，在過去的一年中，火花的傳播，氣體作為輸入和功率作為輸出之間的差異，造成了巨大的它們之間的波動量。我們已經能夠以非常好的方式進行交易。這就是你所看到的。我認為您使用了 15 億美元，這大約是我們全年的規模——抱歉，第四季度 EBITDA。

What I would say on that, of course, is that's subject to the market and it depends what happens in the market. Alongside that, we have a significant number of other businesses in there as well. We have delivery of power and gas to homes in the U.K. We've got carbon capture and storage. We've got hydrogen, the Holland Hydrogen that Ben alluded to earlier. All of those, of course, are building up, and we're really at the start of those as well. So you're right to suggest that by 2025, you will see that much more heavily as part of our portfolio. But those are developing markets, and those price lines are also developing as well. So we're focusing in on making sure that we can get great returns from them. But that will take time for us to build out as well.

當然，我要說的是，這取決於市場，這取決於市場上發生的事情。除此之外，我們還有大量其他業務。我們為英國的家庭提供電力和天然氣。我們有碳捕獲和儲存。我們有氫氣，Ben 之前提到的荷蘭氫氣。當然，所有這些都在積累，而我們也真正處於起步階段。因此，您的建議是正確的，到 2025 年，您將在我們的投資組合中看到更多。但那些是發展中的市場，這些價格線也在發展。因此，我們專注於確保我們可以從他們那裡獲得豐厚的回報。但這也需要時間讓我們建立起來。

Absolutely. And 2025 will indeed be an important year. We're not so much a year to target, but a point where we will see the great inflection with this business really taking off. Okay. Thank you very much.

絕對地。而2025年確實會是重要的一年。我們的目標不是一年，而是我們將看到這項業務真正起飛的巨大轉折點。好的。非常感謝。

We will take our next question from Roger Read from Wells Fargo.

我們將向富國銀行的 Roger Read 提出我們的下一個問題。

The questions that are really good have been hit. But I was curious, as we think about the energy security aspect of, call it, the overall market competing a little more with the energy transition, what kind of discussions, if any, are you having with any of the host governments in the countries you work in, in terms of changing some of the investments, pushing faster on some of the others? I mean you mentioned earlier to Paul's question on hydrogen, it probably has more to do with demand more so than just a cost structure. I was curious from a policy standpoint or a request standpoint, anything that's changed on that in the last roughly 6 months, right, since the Ukraine conflict brought a lot of this to the floor?

真正好的問題都被擊中了。但我很好奇，當我們考慮到能源安全方面，稱之為整體市場與能源轉型的競爭更加激烈，您與這些國家的任何東道國政府進行了什麼樣的討論（如果有的話）你工作，在改變一些投資方面，更快地推動其他一些投資？我的意思是你之前提到保羅關於氫的問題，它可能更多地與需求有關，而不僅僅是成本結構。從政策的角度或請求的角度來看，我很好奇，在過去大約 6 個月裡，這方面有什麼變化，對吧，因為烏克蘭衝突帶來了很多這樣的問題？

Yes. Thanks, Roger. And you said lots of good questions being asked already. Well, this one is a really good question as well. I think in the last 6 months, since the conflict started, sadly, I should say, I've never had as many good discussions with governments since then compared to before. And yes, a lot of them on energy security. A lot of them, indeed, well, how does this work? What can you do? Deeper realization of the depths of the challenge that we are in with when it comes to energy security, also a better appreciation that, well, if this is what it takes to deal with conventional energy, how difficult can the energy transition then really be? And so I think the quality and the depth of the discussion, the intensity is definitely stepping up. I think governments are also realizing that we would need to work harder on demand, which is, of course, what we have been saying for a long time. And you see the policies coming into effect as well.

是的。謝謝，羅傑。你說很多好問題已經被問到了。好吧，這也是一個非常好的問題。我想在過去的 6 個月裡，自從衝突開始以來，很遺憾，我應該說，從那以後，我與政府的討論從未像以前那樣多。是的，其中很多是關於能源安全的。他們中的很多，確實，嗯，這是如何工作的？你能做什麼？更深入地認識到我們在能源安全方面所面臨的挑戰的深度，也更好地認識到，如果這是處理傳統能源所需要的，那麼能源轉型到底有多困難？所以我認為討論的質量和深度，強度肯定在加強。我認為各國政府也意識到我們需要根據需求更加努力地工作，這當然是我們長期以來一直在說的。你會看到這些政策也開始生效。

Now, I think, at this stage, it's probably fair to say that Europe is still leading when it comes to demand side policies. But I think soon enough, that will go across the world. But different discussions, more effective discussions. And I think also much more enabling discussions for us to make the investments, to take on the risks, also new business model risks that we are looking for. And that is across the board. It's not just in power. It's not just in hydrogen. It's also in sustainable aviation fuels and in other ways of bringing both energy security and energy transition, which, in a way, of course, go hand in hand. Thanks for that good question.

現在，我認為，在這個階段，可以說歐洲在需求側政策方面仍然處於領先地位。但我認為很快，這將傳遍世界。但不同的討論，更有效的討論。而且我認為也更有利於我們進行投資，承擔風險，以及我們正在尋找的新商業模式風險。這是全面的。它不僅僅是掌權。它不僅僅是在氫氣中。它還體現在可持續航空燃料和其他實現能源安全和能源轉型的方式中，當然，這在某種程度上是齊頭並進的。謝謝你的好問題。

We will take our next question from Amy Wong from Credit Suisse.

我們將向瑞士信貸的 Amy Wong 提出下一個問題。

Two quick ones from me, please. Firstly, in your prepared remarks, you do a very interesting exercise comparing and contrast your financial results today to the 2013 period. So clearly, it's a reflection of the hard work the organization has gone through to streamline the business and do some cost savings there. So the first question is, what's the scope to improve that profitability?

請給我兩個快速的。首先，在你準備好的評論中，你做了一個非常有趣的練習，將你今天的財務結果與 2013 年期間進行比較和對比。很明顯，這反映了組織為精簡業務和節省一些成本所付出的辛勤工作。所以第一個問題是，提高盈利能力的範圍有多大？

And then my second question is, in your Upstream business, and you mentioned that the -- on an underlying basis, your field decline was offset by growth from new fields. So my question is, what is your decline rates in your fields at the moment? And given some of the comments around inflation, how are you managing those decline rates? Are the fields behaving the way you expected them to when you set out your Upstream strategy? And is the CapEx allocation to the Upstream business appropriate?

然後我的第二個問題是，在您的上游業務中，您提到 - 從根本上講，您的領域下降被新領域的增長所抵消。所以我的問題是，你目前在你的領域的下降率是多少？鑑於一些關於通脹的評論，你如何管理這些下降率？當您制定上游戰略時，這些領域的行為是否符合您的預期？上游業務的資本支出分配是否合適？

There's a lot of questions in there, Elaine, and let me have a go at some of them. I'll take your first question was really about comparing 2022 with 2013, interesting. But what really can you do going forward from 2022? And I would say, well, first of all, it is very important to look back on how much we have strengthened this company. And the reason for doing it really is because there's also a narrative out there that the results we are seeing today are accidental or actually just a windfall because there happens to be a war on the continent here. .

那裡有很多問題，伊萊恩，讓我來看看其中的一些。我認為你的第一個問題實際上是關於將 2022 年與 2013 年進行比較，很有趣。但是，從 2022 年開始，您真正能做些什麼呢？我想說，嗯，首先，回顧一下我們為這家公司做了多少加強是非常重要的。這樣做的真正原因是因為那裡還有一種說法，即我們今天看到的結果是偶然的，或者實際上只是意外之財，因為這裡的大陸恰好發生了一場戰爭。 .

And while, indeed, the war is a driver of a lot of the pricing that we are seeing, if you reference it back to the last time you saw this price, of course, you cannot just explain it away by just a price effect. And indeed, we have significantly improved the portfolio. We have significantly improved the strength of the organization. We just picked out a number of indicators. I could have picked another dozen to just show that the company has become a better company, a higher-quality company.

儘管戰爭確實是我們所看到的許多定價的驅動因素，但如果您將其追溯到上次看到此價格的時間，當然，您不能僅僅通過價格效應來解釋它。事實上，我們已經顯著改善了產品組合。我們顯著提高了組織的實力。我們剛剛挑選了一些指標。我本可以再選一打來證明這家公司已經成為一家更好的公司，一家更高質量的公司。

And on the back of that, I would say that yes, we can, therefore, also grab more opportunities. We have more discipline, not only demonstrated, but we just have a better discipline, discipline. So in other words, when we take decisions right now, we are just better able to understand what is right, what is wrong. And we are basically high-grading all the decisions that we can make into the best decisions possible. So I would say, yes, there is more running room when it comes to the performance going forward.

在此基礎上，我想說是的，因此我們也可以抓住更多機會。我們有更多的紀律，不僅表現出來，而且我們有更好的紀律，紀律。所以換句話說，當我們現在做出決定時，我們只是能夠更好地理解什麼是對的，什麼是錯的。而且我們基本上將我們可以做出的所有決定都進行了高度評價，使其成為可能的最佳決定。所以我想說，是的，在未來的表現方面還有更多的運行空間。

On the field decline, I'm not entirely sure whether I got your question in the right spirit. So therefore, I will also ask Sinead to add. If you look back on the Upstream side, we actually reduced production compared to 2013 by 21%. That's not field decline, of course. There's also portfolio. But it's also taking into account a very significant acquisition with BG. So in other words, again, you see that we have significantly upgraded the portfolio in terms of production because that 21% we have coincides with 74% CFFO per barrel increase. I think in general, field declines, I don't have the number off the top of my head. But I don't think we see surprises there. Sinead?

在現場拒絕時，我不完全確定我是否以正確的精神提出了您的問題。因此，我也會要求 Sinead 補充。如果您回顧上游方面，與 2013 年相比，我們實際上減少了 21% 的產量。當然，這不是領域下降。還有投資組合。但它也考慮到與 BG 的一項非常重要的收購。因此，換句話說，您再次看到我們在產量方面顯著升級了投資組合，因為我們擁有的 21% 與每桶 74% 的 CFFO 增長相吻合。我認為總的來說，場下降，我沒有想到這個數字。但我不認為我們在那裡看到了驚喜。西奈德？

No, indeed. And post Permian, what we expect to see between now and 2025 is around about 1% to 2% decline coming through, Amy. But what I would say is, when you look at our Upstream business at the moment and you look at $4.9 billion of adjusted earnings in this quarter, which just shows you that -- and that, by the way, is significant -- actually the last time I think we got near, that was 2011. So it's even beyond the dates that we're looking at now at similar prices. So what we are seeing is significantly lower production, but really the value over volume coming through, and it's really working. So quite relaxed from that perspective on it as well.

不，確實。在二疊紀之後，我們預計從現在到 2025 年之間會出現大約 1% 到 2% 的下降，艾米。但我想說的是，當您查看我們目前的上游業務並查看本季度 49 億美元的調整後收益時，這只是向您表明——順便說一句，這很重要——實際上上次我認為我們接近了，那是 2011 年。所以它甚至超出了我們現在以相似價格查看的日期。所以我們看到的是產量顯著下降，但實際上是價值超過了產量，而且它確實有效。所以從這個角度來看也很放鬆。

And you asked a little bit about the -- sorry, the CapEx as well coming through. So we're spending $7 billion to $9 billion, that's the intent for our Upstream business. What we're seeing there is an awful lot of new things coming in. You saw Atapu. You saw, of course, Pierce will come back online, Jackdaw FID, of course, (inaudible) starting up this quarter as well. So there's a lot happening in our Upstream business. And clearly, it's a business that we're very proud of as well.

你問了一些關於 - 抱歉，資本支出也通過了。所以我們要花費 70 億到 90 億美元，這就是我們上游業務的意圖。我們看到有很多新事物進來。你看到了阿塔普。你當然看到了，Pierce 將重新上線，Jackdaw FID，當然，（聽不清）本季度也將開始。因此，我們的上游業務發生了很多事情。顯然，這也是我們引以為豪的業務。

Thank you very much. And that was actually the final question. I'm very mindful that there's still quite a few questions in the queue, and apologies for those that haven't had time to speak. But we will get to you and make sure that your question is being taken care of as well.

非常感謝。這實際上是最後一個問題。我非常注意隊列中還有很多問題，對於那些沒有時間發言的人表示歉意。但我們會聯繫您並確保您的問題也得到解決。

For now, I would say thank you so much for all your questions. We really enjoyed doing this call together with you. But I also hope that you have enjoyed it and that it has given you some insights to the delivery of our strategy, how we are striving to ensure secure supplies of energy during one of the most challenging periods the world has faced.

現在，我非常感謝您提出的所有問題。我們真的很喜歡和你一起做這個電話。但我也希望你喜歡它，它讓你對我們的戰略實施有了一些見解，我們如何在世界面臨的最具挑戰性的時期之一努力確保安全的能源供應。

But we also hope to see you in person at our Shell Insights Event on Marketing on October 6, which will be here in London and which will be host by (inaudible) and our marketing team. And I wish you a very pleasant end of the week. And I hope you and your families will stay safe and will stay well. Thank you very much.

但我們也希望在 10 月 6 日的 Shell Insights 營銷活動中與您見面，該活動將在倫敦舉行，由（聽不清）和我們的營銷團隊主持。祝你周末愉快。我希望您和您的家人能夠保持安全並保持健康。非常感謝。