殼牌 (SHEL) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Shell's First Quarter 2023 Financial Results Announcement. Shell's CFO, Sinead Gorman, will present the results, then host a Q&A session along with Shell's CEO, Wael Sawan. (Operator Instructions) We will now begin the presentation. .

歡迎閱讀殼牌 2023 年第一季度財務業績公告。殼牌首席財務官 Sinead Gorman 將介紹結果，然後與殼牌首席執行官 Wael Sawan 一起主持問答環節。 （操作員說明）我們現在開始演示。 .

Welcome to Shell's 2023 First Quarter Results Presentation. Despite a less favorable macro environment than last quarter, we delivered another set of strong results. Our performance was due to our well-positioned resilient portfolio and improved operational delivery. Our adjusted earnings were $9.6 billion, and our adjusted EBITDA was $21.4 billion, exceeding last quarter's adjusted EBITDA. And we delivered $14.2 billion of cash flow from operations.

歡迎觀看殼牌 2023 年第一季度業績演示。儘管宏觀環境不如上一季度有利，但我們還是取得了另一套強勁的業績。我們的業績歸功於我們定位良好的彈性產品組合和改進的運營交付。我們調整後的收益為 96 億美元，調整後的 EBITDA 為 214 億美元，超過了上一季度的調整後 EBITDA。我們交付了 142 億美元的運營現金流。

Our Integrated Gas business performed very well with improved utilization, robust performance in Australia, continued excellent operational performance at Pearl GTL and strong trading and optimization results. We also played an important role in securing gas supplies for Europe this past winter by storing 50% more gas than the previous year.

我們的綜合天然氣業務表現非常出色，提高了利用率，在澳大利亞表現強勁，在 Pearl GTL 繼續保持出色的運營表現，以及強勁的交易和優化結果。去年冬天，我們還儲存了比前一年多 50% 的天然氣，從而在確保歐洲天然氣供應方面發揮了重要作用。

Moving to our upstream. In our Deepwater business, our assets in the Gulf of Mexico improved controllable availability, equaling our best performance in a decade. And in Chemicals and Products, we also saw improved refinery utilization and by safely delaying a turnaround for Norco, our Energy & Chemicals Park in Louisiana, we were able to maximize returns. Our total underlying operating expenses showed an improvement of $1.7 billion compared with Q4, which is typically higher than Q1.

移動到我們的上游。在我們的深水業務中，我們在墨西哥灣的資產提高了可控可用性，相當於我們十年來的最佳表現。在化學品和產品方面，我們還看到了煉油廠利用率的提高，並且通過安全地延遲我們位於路易斯安那州的能源和化學品園區 Norco 的周轉時間，我們能夠實現回報最大化。與第四季度相比，我們的基礎運營支出總額增加了 17 億美元，通常高於第一季度。

Moving to our financial framework. We continued to make good progress. we are announcing a new round of share buybacks of some $4 billion for Q2, which would bring our expected shareholder distributions for the first half of the year to around $12 billion. This demonstrates our commitment to generating attractive shareholder returns. However, we also continue to make disciplined investments to high-grade our portfolio. A great example of this is Vito, our newest offshore platform in the Gulf of Mexico, which has started production.

轉到我們的財務框架。我們繼續取得良好進展。我們宣布第二季度新一輪約 40 億美元的股票回購，這將使我們今年上半年的預期股東分配達到約 120 億美元。這表明我們致力於產生有吸引力的股東回報。然而，我們也繼續進行有紀律的投資，以提升我們的投資組合。一個很好的例子是我們在墨西哥灣最新的海上平台 Vito，它已經開始生產。

Vito has an estimated peak production of 100,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day. Changes to the original design created a reduction of approximately 80% in CO2 emissions over the lifetime of the facility. This rework also brought about a cost reduction of more than 70% from the original host concept. Projects like Vito serve as a blueprint for other projects, allowing us to generate greater value from the Gulf of Mexico.

Vito 的估計峰值產量為每天 100,000 桶石油當量。對原始設計的更改在設施的整個生命週期內減少了大約 80% 的二氧化碳排放量。此次返工還帶來了比最初的主機概念成本降低 70% 以上的效果。像 Vito 這樣的項目可以作為其他項目的藍圖，使我們能夠從墨西哥灣產生更大的價值。

Also in the Gulf of Mexico, we took a final investment decision for Dover, a project that will allow us to bring on new production through our existing Appomattox platform. And in the U.K., we have restarted operations at our Pierce field following a significant upgrade to allow gas to be produced.

同樣在墨西哥灣，我們為 Dover 做出了最終投資決定，該項目將使我們能夠通過現有的 Appomattox 平台進行新的生產。在英國，在進行重大升級以生產天然氣後，我們重新啟動了皮爾斯油田的運營。

Peak production is now expected to reach more than twice what it was before the redevelopment, bringing much needed gas to the U.K. We also continue to make progress in building our low carbon portfolio. We completed the acquisition of Nature Energy, Europe's largest producer of renewable natural gas, complementing our U.S. position. And we also completed the acquisition of Volta, which means we now own and operate one of the largest public charging network for electric vehicles in the U.S.

現在預計峰值產量將達到重建前的兩倍以上，從而為英國帶來急需的天然氣。我們還在構建低碳產品組合方面繼續取得進展。我們完成了對歐洲最大的可再生天然氣生產商 Nature Energy 的收購，補充了我們在美國的地位。我們還完成了對 Volta 的收購，這意味著我們現在擁有並運營著美國最大的電動汽車公共充電網絡之一。

As part of our focus on delivering more value from the portfolio, we divested 3 noncore upstream positions. Two of them are in Malaysia's Baram Delta and the other is Aera Energy in California. In summary, we delivered strong results, significant shareholder returns and continue to high-grade the portfolio whilst navigating a volatile market.

作為我們專注於從投資組合中提供更多價值的一部分，我們剝離了 3 個非核心上游職位。其中兩個位於馬來西亞的巴蘭三角洲，另一個是加利福尼亞州的 Aera Energy。總而言之，我們取得了強勁的業績，顯著的股東回報，並在駕馭動蕩的市場的同時繼續提升投資組合的評級。

Lastly, there are 2 important upcoming events. Our Annual General Meeting on May 23, where we ask you to support the progress we have made against our energy transition targets by voting for our energy transition progress report. I'm pleased also to join Wael, myself and several of the senior leadership team for our Capital Markets Day in New York on June 14, when we intend to share more on how we are driving value through improved operational performance and disciplined portfolio management to deliver attractive shareholder returns. Thank you.

最後，還有 2 個重要的即將發生的事件。我們在 5 月 23 日舉行的年度股東大會上，我們要求您通過投票支持我們在能源轉型目標方面取得的進展，支持我們的能源轉型進展報告。我也很高興與 Wael、我自己和幾位高級領導團隊一起參加 6 月 14 日在紐約舉行的資本市場日，屆時我們打算分享更多關於我們如何通過提高運營績效和嚴格的投資組合管理來推動價值提供有吸引力的股東回報。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Thank you for joining us today. We hope that after watching this presentation, you've seen how we delivered strong results and how we continue to high grade our portfolio. Today, Sinead and I will be answering your questions. And now please, could we have just 1 or 2 questions each so that everyone gets the opportunity. And with that, could we have the first one, please, Dan?

感謝您今天加入我們。我們希望在觀看本次演示後，您已經了解我們如何取得了強勁的成果以及我們如何繼續提升我們的產品組合。今天，Sinead 和我將回答您的問題。現在請問，我們能否每個人只提出 1 或 2 個問題，以便每個人都有機會。有了這個，丹，我們可以要第一個嗎？

The first question is from Oswald Clint at Bernstein.

第一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的 Oswald Clint。

Two questions, please. The first one, I'm not going to ask any big Capital Markets Day questions, I'm sure you want to leave those for next month. But the first one, maybe on the topic of capital investment levels. I've seen Shell pulling out of some carbon capture projects like the U.K. one, Northern Endurance. I've seen pulling out of big LNG resources like Browse. So both big areas where, I guess, we would expect Shell to kind of lean in further. So perhaps just talk around the rationale there. Is this signaling anything towards favoritism to perhaps faster payback oil at the moment? Or is it inflation? Or is it just some specific project economics around things like that?

請教兩個問題。第一個，我不會問任何大的資本市場日問題，我相信你想把這些問題留到下個月。但第一個，可能是關於資本投資水平的話題。我看到殼牌退出了一些碳捕獲項目，例如英國的 Northern Endurance。我已經看到像 Browse 這樣的大型液化天然氣資源退出。因此，我想，我們希望殼牌能夠進一步涉足這兩個大領域。所以也許只是討論那裡的基本原理。這是否預示著對目前可能更快回報石油的偏袒？還是通貨膨脹？或者它只是圍繞此類事情的一些特定項目經濟學？

And then secondly, going down to my favorite marketing division. We have the Mobility division, a very useful gross margin split that you give us. It looks like really strong first quarter performance, across even the basic fuels, the premium fuels, the convenience and even the e-mobility just actually isn't that far behind. So how do you explain what's going on there? Is this simply China reopening? Is it lag demand recovery post-COVID? Is it your own Shell initiatives? Or if you could respond to that and perhaps just talk around what you're seeing in terms of broader oil product demand so far on the ground today, please?

其次，轉到我最喜歡的營銷部門。我們有移動部門，這是您給我們的非常有用的毛利率分配。看起來第一季度的表現非常強勁，即使是基本燃料、優質燃料、便利性，甚至電動汽車，實際上也並沒有落後太多。那麼你如何解釋那裡發生了什麼？這僅僅是中國重新開放嗎？ COVID 後需求恢復是否滯後？這是您自己的殼牌倡議嗎？或者，如果你能對此做出回應，也許只是談談你今天在更廣泛的石油產品需求方面所看到的情況，好嗎？

Okay. Oswald, thank you for that, and thank you for recognizing that there's a few things we'll need to be able to leave to Capital Markets Day '23 next month and look forward to seeing you and others there. So just I start off with your first question and if you want to take the second question on marketing as well. I think what's important here, Oswald, is we have talked about wanting to be performance-focused as well as really driving discipline and capital discipline, but this is more broadly in terms of ensuring that we are in the projects that potentially have the running room to deliver the sort of returns we want. .

好的。奧斯瓦爾德，謝謝你，也感謝你認識到我們需要在下個月的第 23 屆資本市場日討論一些事情，並期待在那裡見到你和其他人。所以我從你的第一個問題開始，如果你也想回答關於營銷的第二個問題。奧斯瓦爾德，我認為這裡重要的是我們已經討論過要以績效為中心以及真正推動紀律和資本紀律，但這更廣泛地確保我們參與的項目可能有運行空間提供我們想要的那種回報。 .

Our strategy is clear. We have said we want to be in advantaged oil. We want to be strong in our Integrated Gas business. We also want to lean into some of the lower carbon energy value chains as long as they are profitable. So the examples you mentioned there, NEP, for example, in the Northern Endurance partnership in the U.K. was one that was a very specific project that did not fit our economic requirements. Browse similarly, is a project that's competing with some of the other projects in our portfolio and on balance, it simply does not attract the [FESX] nor the CapEx that other projects are out competing it for.

我們的戰略很明確。我們已經說過我們希望擁有優勢石油。我們希望在我們的綜合天然氣業務中變得強大。我們還希望涉足一些低碳能源價值鏈，只要它們有利可圖。所以你在那裡提到的例子，NEP，例如，在英國的 Northern Endurance 合作夥伴關係中，是一個非常具體的項目，不符合我們的經濟要求。類似地瀏覽，是一個與我們投資組合中的其他一些項目競爭的項目，總的來說，它根本不會吸引 [FESX]，也不會吸引其他項目無法與之競爭的資本支出。

And similarly, I was asked in the media interview today, the decision to pull out of a couple of projects at Bukom in Singapore. These are all project-specific decisions on the basis of making sure that we are a lot more focused early on and how we deploy our FESX , and eventually how we deploy our CapEx to be able to achieve the returns because that has to be a core part of how we can deliver value longer term to our shareholders. No change in strategy, just focused on discipline. Sinead?

同樣，我在今天的媒體採訪中被問及退出新加坡 Bukom 的幾個項目的決定。這些都是基於確保我們在早期更加關注以及我們如何部署 FESX 以及最終我們如何部署資本支出以實現回報的基礎上的特定項目決策，因為這必須是一個核心我們如何為股東提供長期價值的一部分。戰略沒有改變，只是專注於紀律。西尼德？

Indeed. And thank you, Oswald. Yes, our marketing division has certainly done very well this quarter and you see $0.9 billion of earnings compared to the $0.4 billion that we saw in Q4. Number of factors, as you said, good across the different areas. And of course, we build, particularly on the mobility side as you go into driving season that's coming through. What we also saw is very high from our perspective, margins from our lubricants business. .

的確。謝謝你，奧斯瓦爾德。是的，我們的營銷部門本季度確實做得很好，與我們在第四季度看到的 4 億美元相比，您看到了 9 億美元的收益。正如您所說，許多因素在不同領域都有好處。當然，當您進入即將到來的駕駛季節時，我們會進行建設，尤其是在機動性方面。從我們的角度來看，我們還看到潤滑油業務的利潤率非常高。 .

Indeed, in terms of being able to actually take the lower base costs that come through, which is partly linked to the macro, of course, but those margins were very strong and have played (inaudible) in the results. Overall, we are seeing recovery coming through from China, of course. More to watch on that one to see how fast that progresses, but we'll be watching that as we go into Q2. But particularly on marketing, we also look forward to seeing driving season come through as well.

事實上，就能夠實際承擔較低的基本成本而言，這當然部分與宏觀相關，但這些利潤非常強勁並且在結果中發揮了（聽不清）。總體而言，我們當然看到中國正在復蘇。更多值得關注的是，看看進展有多快，但我們會在進入第二季度時關注它。但特別是在營銷方面，我們也期待看到駕駛季節的到來。

The next question is from Michele Della Vigna at Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的 Michele Della Vigna。

Congratulations for the strong delivery and looking forward to the Capital Markets Day. Two quite specific questions, if I may. First, I wanted to see if you could provide us with an update on 2 very valuable, but also complex projects in your portfolio in Canada LNG and the Pennsylvania cracker? And secondly, I wondered if you had any comments on the temporary export tax imposed in Brazil. That's a very important and profitable asset in your portfolio. Is your understanding that the most likely outcome is this 4-month tax effectively expires at the end of June? Or you think there is a possibility that it gets extended beyond that?

祝賀強大的交付並期待資本市場日。兩個非常具體的問題，如果可以的話。首先，我想看看您是否可以向我們提供有關加拿大液化天然氣和賓夕法尼亞裂解裝置投資組合中兩個非常有價值但也很複雜的項目的最新信息？其次，我想知道你對巴西征收的臨時出口稅有何評論。這是您投資組合中非常重要且有利可圖的資產。您是否認為最有可能的結果是這 4 個月的稅收在 6 月底有效到期？或者你認為它有可能超出這個範圍？

Thank you, Michele. Nice to hear from you, and thank you for the kind words. Do you want to start with the Brazil tax question?

謝謝你，米歇爾。很高興收到你的來信，謝謝你的客氣話。您想從巴西稅務問題開始嗎？

Certainly. Indeed, so as you say, so in terms of Brazil, we are a very strong player in Brazil. We have great positions and great relationships in the country and that's somewhere we've been for a long time and see a long future to come. Of course, it's disappointing to see taxes come in play, which actually threaten some of the investment climate. But we understand that it is in place for this 4-month period. I certainly wouldn't want to speculate where the government will go next on that one. What we are seeing, of course is that we have put in place the -- and challenged the injunction as it stands. So we look forward to seeing where it plays out.

當然。確實，正如你所說，就巴西而言，我們在巴西是一個非常強大的球員。我們在這個國家擁有優越的地位和良好的關係，這是我們已經存在了很長時間並且看到了漫長的未來的地方。當然，看到稅收發揮作用令人失望，這實際上威脅到一些投資環境。但據我們了解，它在這 4 個月的時間內就位。我當然不想推測政府接下來會去哪裡。當然，我們所看到的是我們已經實施了 - 並挑戰了目前的禁令。所以我們期待看到它在哪裡發揮作用。

Thanks, Sinead. And Michele, your first question around LNG Canada and (inaudible) which we now [core] our Shell Polymers Monaca facility. So LNG Canada first, we continue to be incredibly excited about the prospect of that project coming on stream around middle of this decade. It's making good progress. So we are -- last update I got. We already passed the 70% mark in terms of construction on site. Coastal GasLink, the developer of the pipeline is also making good progress. And this is despite what has been, of course, a difficult period when you consider the COVID disruptions, broader supply chain challenges around the world. So no new guidance other than to say we continue to anticipate startup there around the middle of the decade and look forward to seeing where that goes.

謝謝，西尼德。米歇爾，你的第一個問題是關於加拿大液化天然氣和（聽不清）我們現在 [核心] 我們的殼牌聚合物莫納卡工廠。因此，首先是加拿大液化天然氣公司，我們對該項目在本世紀中期左右投產的前景感到非常興奮。它正在取得良好進展。所以我們是——我得到的最後更新。我們在現場施工方面已經通過了70%的大關。管道開發商 Coastal GasLink 也取得了良好進展。當然，當你考慮到 COVID 中斷、全球更廣泛的供應鏈挑戰時，這是一段艱難的時期。因此，除了說我們繼續期待在本世紀中期左右啟動並期待看到它的發展方向之外，沒有新的指導。

On Shell Polymers Monaca, again, a world-class facility, significantly advantaged in the location that it sits and an opportunity to really sort of create sustainable earnings into the future for us as a company. The ramp-up, as we have guided in the past, is going to take the rest of this year. It's been slower than we would have hoped for, but the team is doing a great job battling with some of the obvious technical niggles that startups typically have. We continue to be hopeful that through the course of this year, we should bring it up to the levels that we had anticipated in the plan. Thanks for the question, Michele.

在 Shell Polymers Monaca，同樣是一個世界級的設施，在其所在的位置上具有顯著優勢，並且有機會真正為我們公司的未來創造可持續的收益。正如我們過去所指導的那樣，今年餘下時間將進行加速。它比我們希望的要慢，但團隊在與初創公司通常遇到的一些明顯的技術問題作鬥爭方面做得很好。我們仍然希望在今年的過程中，我們應該將其提高到我們在計劃中預期的水平。謝謝你的問題，米歇爾。

The next question is from Lydia Rainforth at Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Lydia Rainforth。

Two questions, if I could. While I'm just building on (inaudible) question earlier. We've seen a lot of what you don't want to do in terms of selling Browse, the (inaudible) project. Can you talk us through what you do want to do more of? And possibly linked to that, obviously, the operational performance has been pretty good during 1Q, particularly in (inaudible). Has anything specific changed there? And then secondly, probably for Sinead. The OpEx number was down quite significantly quarter-on-quarter and essentially flat versus last year. I'm just wondering what if anything has changed in terms of how you're thinking about that number versus 4Q?

兩個問題，如果可以的話。雖然我只是在構建之前的（聽不清）問題。在銷售 Browse（聽不清）項目方面，我們已經看到了很多您不想做的事情。你能告訴我們你想做更多的事情嗎？並且可能與此相關，顯然，第一季度的運營表現非常好，特別是在（聽不清）。那裡有什麼具體的變化嗎？其次，可能是為了 Sinead。運營支出數字環比大幅下降，與去年基本持平。我只是想知道您對這個數字與第四季度的看法是否有任何變化？

Lydia, thank you very much for that. I'll indeed take the first one and then come to Sinead on the OpEx question. Or the first 2. The -- what we -- what I would like to do, I think, firstly, to recognize, what I don't want to do is to invest in projects that are weak returns and simply to spend [FESX] on projects that don't have potential to be able to be compelling return projects for us as a company. What do I want to do? I want to invest in the opportunities that are very much into our strategic focus, and we can touch on that, of course. But the opportunities that where we can see differentiated value being created by us as a company and where we can see the sorts of returns that you would expect when we make those investments in those projects.

莉迪亞，非常感謝你。我確實會接受第一個，然後就 OpEx 問題來找 Sinead。或第 2 個。我認為，首先，我想做的是認識到，我不想做的是投資於回報微弱的項目，而只是花 [FESX ] 在沒有潛力成為我們公司有吸引力的回報項目的項目上。我想做什麼？我想投資於我們戰略重點非常重要的機會，我們當然可以觸及這一點。但是，我們可以看到我們作為一家公司正在創造差異化價值的機會，以及我們可以看到在我們對這些項目進行投資時所期望的各種回報的機會。

So I would describe it much more of a ruthless focus on the allocation of capital in a way to be able to ensure we are delivering the returns that we expect. Multiple examples of how we do that, right? So with just FID Dover, for example, in the Gulf of Mexico, a very exciting opportunity to be able to bring back new molecules into Appomattox. Take the opportunities around our LNG. We've taken the NFE, North Field Expansion decision last year and look forward to taking the North Field South FID soon as well. So that's another area where we want to deploy capital because we see the sorts of returns.

因此，我將更多地描述為以一種能夠確保我們提供預期回報的方式無情地關注資本分配。我們如何做到這一點的多個例子，對吧？因此，例如在墨西哥灣的 FID 多佛，這是一個非常令人興奮的機會，能夠將新分子帶回 Appomattox。抓住我們液化天然氣周圍的機會。我們去年已經做出了 NFE、North Field Expansion 的決定，並期待著盡快做出 North Field South FID 的決定。所以這是我們想要部署資本的另一個領域，因為我們看到了各種回報。

And then if I look at the low carbon space, of course, we've completed Nature Energy. That's a space we're excited by, and we will continue to invest in that space. Because we see the synergies with a lot of our short positions, in particular, in Europe, in our commercial road transport, for example, where we will deliver a lot of that renewable gas.

然後，如果我看看低碳空間，當然，我們已經完成了 Nature Energy。這是一個令我們興奮的領域，我們將繼續投資於該領域。因為我們看到了我們許多空頭頭寸的協同效應，特別是在歐洲，例如在我們的商業公路運輸中，我們將在那裡運送大量可再生氣體。

And so I think it's critical to look at the individual projects. And what you will see us do is shut down projects that we don't see having running room and be very focused on the ones where we can create value. Do you want to touch on that? And maybe on the IG performance, which I didn't pick up as well.

因此，我認為查看各個項目至關重要。你會看到我們所做的是關閉我們認為沒有運行空間的項目，並非常專注於我們可以創造價值的項目。你想談談這個嗎？也許是關於 IG 的表現，我也沒有註意到這一點。

Certainly, indeed. So on the OpEx side, Lydia, I think in the same way as Wael talked about being ruthless on the focus on value and focusing on where you spend your dollars in terms of the CapEx. We're moving into that exactly the same view with respect to OpEx. So for us, it is very important to make sure we show that discipline and that focus with respect to OpEx. In terms of the -- specifically what you're asking about, which is the change between Q4 and Q1, we typically see our Q4 being higher. It's just traditionally what occurs in our business. Largely because we do look at decommissioning in particular, and look at the amounts that come through in Q4 there as well. There's also some staff costs. And actually last Q4 as well, we had some advertising that came in as well. So that's the side of things that would have flowed through.

當然，確實。因此，在 OpEx 方面，Lydia，我認為 Wael 談到要無情地關注價值，並關注你在資本支出方面花錢的地方。我們正在進入與 OpEx 完全相同的觀點。所以對我們來說，確保我們在運營支出方面表現出紀律和重點是非常重要的。就您所問的具體而言，即第四季度和第一季度之間的變化，我們通常會看到第四季度更高。這只是傳統上發生在我們業務中的事情。很大程度上是因為我們確實特別關注退役，也關注第四季度的數量。還有一些員工成本。實際上，去年第四季度，我們也收到了一些廣告。這就是本來可以流過的事情的一面。

Taking to the second IG one. The IG performance one, indeed, so really pleased to see IG delivering what it did incredibly strong earnings, as you will have seen. So what occurred there. First and foremost, just great congratulations to the assets, the performance was outstanding. So we saw operational performance hitting all of the metrics that we would like to see, and particularly in Australia. So we saw [preloads] up, but we saw all the other assets up as well, which is very, very pleasing. And you see that flow through those volumes were there for optimization, and we saw that.

進入第二個 IG。正如您將看到的那樣，IG 的表現確實如此，非常高興看到 IG 實現了令人難以置信的強勁收益。那麼那裡發生了什麼。首先，祝賀資產，表現非常出色。因此，我們看到運營績效達到了我們希望看到的所有指標，尤其是在澳大利亞。所以我們看到 [preloads] 增加了，但我們也看到所有其他資產都增加了，這非常非常令人高興。你會看到流過這些卷的流量是為了優化，我們也看到了。

And you'll see on Slide 7, in particular, I think, Lydia, in the pack where we refer back to what we've discussed before, really about the fact that we are very much situated for, as you've heard me talk about the Northern Hemisphere winter. So Q4 and Q1 looking at those volumes coming through -- and that's what you saw. But of course, it was great to see it coming very much from the operational assets as well. And of course, the risk management or the paper aligned very closely.

你會在第 7 張幻燈片上看到，特別是，我認為，Lydia，在我們回顧之前討論過的內容中，真的是關於我們非常適合的事實，正如你聽到的說說北半球的冬天。所以第四季度和第一季度看著這些交易量——這就是你所看到的。但當然，很高興看到它也非常來自運營資產。當然，風險管理或文件非常緊密地結合在一起。

The next question is from Christyan Malek at JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Christyan Malek。

First, congrats on the strong results. And 2 questions for both Sinead and Wael. And Wael, I appreciate you being on the call as well. The first is on trading and how you think about framing cash return going forward. In the context of contributions from trading as it continues to be an important but in itself, more volatile contribution to cash flow. So I think that the mix of the buyback versus dividend. And as you particularly compare your valuation to the U.S. majors, I would love to hear about how you think this gap can be closed, especially as it seems cash flow and in turn buybacks fueled by trading doesn't seem to be doing a great job in closing the multiple. That's the first question.

首先，祝賀取得了優異的成績。以及 Sinead 和 Wael 的 2 個問題。 Wael，我也很感謝你能接聽電話。第一個是關於交易以及你如何看待未來的現金回報。在交易貢獻的背景下，因為它仍然是一個重要但本身對現金流量更不穩定的貢獻。所以我認為回購與股息的組合。當你特別將你的估值與美國專業公司進行比較時，我很想听聽你認為如何縮小這一差距，尤其是在現金流和交易推動的回購似乎做得不好的情況下在關閉多個。這是第一個問題。

The second question is the macro outlook, seems totally conflicted with (inaudible) data points. On one hand, coming through in some subsectors, but then yet recession appears to be the dominant narrative. So I'd appreciate it's hard to take a strong view near term, but I want to know whether you are, and forgive me for asking, bullish or bearish over the long-term fundamentals in Energy macro, maybe first in oil and then in gas LNG.

第二個問題是宏觀前景，似乎與（聽不清）數據點完全衝突。一方面，一些子行業出現了衰退，但隨後經濟衰退似乎成為了主流說法。因此，我很欣賞近期很難採取強硬觀點，但我想知道你是否對能源宏觀的長期基本面看漲或看跌，請原諒我的提問，可能首先是石油，然後是天然氣液化天然氣。

Thank you for the questions, Christyan. Do you want to take the first one?

謝謝你的問題，克里斯蒂安。你想拿第一個嗎？

Sure. Indeed, Christyan. So from the trading perspective, it's a really interesting one because this can often come up. So the way we very much look at it is around the optimization rather than pure trading. I don't think it's any surprise that you're seeing a variety of the pure players out there, the pure trading highs who are actually just buying assets so that they can sustainably deliver exactly what we do, which is optimization around the assets. So that's very much coming through. And in the same way as I talked about with respect to Lydia in terms of IG, we're seeing the ability to be able to trade around water or to optimize around what actually comes from those assets.

當然。的確，克里斯蒂安。所以從交易的角度來看，這是一個非常有趣的問題，因為這經常會出現。所以我們非常關注它的方式是圍繞優化而不是純粹的交易。我不認為你看到各種各樣的純粹玩家，純粹的交易高點，他們實際上只是購買資產，以便他們能夠持續交付我們所做的事情，即圍繞資產進行優化，這並不奇怪。所以這非常重要。就像我在 IG 方面談到 Lydia 一樣，我們看到了能夠圍繞水進行交易或圍繞這些資產的實際來源進行優化的能力。

We see the same thing actually coming through, particularly this quarter in terms of our Refining & Chemicals business, our Chemicals & Products business. So there specifically, we saw, of course, some of our competitors bringing down refineries in Q1, particularly in the U.S. And we made a conscious choice to optimize around, particularly Norco, where we moved out some of the turnaround to later this year to be able to capitalize on both the -- really the stronger refining margins compared to where it may go to, but of course, actually, to get the volumes out there.

我們看到同樣的事情正在發生，特別是本季度在我們的煉油和化工業務、我們的化學品和產品業務方面。因此，具體來說，我們當然看到，我們的一些競爭對手在第一季度關閉了煉油廠，尤其是在美國。我們有意識地選擇優化周圍環境，尤其是 Norco，我們將一些扭虧為盈轉移到今年晚些時候能夠利用兩者 - 與它可能去的地方相比實際上更高的煉油利潤率，但當然，實際上是為了獲得產量。

So I would argue very strongly that a huge part of what we're doing, Christyan, is actually optimization around the assets that we have rather than what you would call pure trading. And therefore, I would say that that's what should be considered as we go through on it.

所以我會非常強烈地爭辯說，Christyan，我們正在做的很大一部分實際上是圍繞我們擁有的資產進行優化，而不是你所謂的純交易。因此，我想說的是，這是我們在討論過程中應該考慮的問題。

You alluded to, of course, the U.S. valuation gap, et cetera. I think I would come back to time and time again. We're very focused on creating a track record with delivery that's what you saw last quarter. That's what you're seeing this quarter. It's about ensuring we have performance, performance, performance, and you'll see the discipline coming through in particular in terms of the way we allocate capital. So this is about quarter-on-quarter coming through. I think both of those will occur. And as I said before, with respect to what you call -- what you refer to as the trading side of things, that is truly optimization. So providing we can keep getting our operational performance well, we hand over an ability to optimize or to trade around that.

當然，你提到了美國的估值差距等等。我想我會一次又一次地回來。我們非常專注於創造您上個季度看到的交付記錄。這就是您在本季度看到的情況。這是關於確保我們有績效、績效、績效，你會看到紀律，特別是在我們分配資本的方式方面。所以這是關於季度環比的。我認為這兩種情況都會發生。正如我之前所說，關於你所說的——你所說的事物的交易方面，那是真正的優化。因此，只要我們能夠保持良好的運營績效，我們就會交出優化或權衡的能力。

Thank you, Sinead. And Christyan, to your first -- your second question, sorry, about the macro outlook. I think you characterized it well. It's difficult space to predict where things are going at the moment. So I won't even try to go down that pathway. I'll give you a couple of perspectives. I think on the oil side, in the first instance. Of course, we've seen the selloff over the last 48 hours or so. Clearly, there are market jitters.

謝謝你，西尼德。克里斯蒂安，關於你的第一個 - 你的第二個問題，抱歉，關於宏觀前景。我認為你很好地描述了它。很難預測目前事情的發展方向。所以我什至不會嘗試走那條路。我會給你幾個觀點。我首先想到的是石油方面。當然，我們在過去 48 小時左右看到了拋售。顯然，存在市場緊張情緒。

And I can understand the reactions to the Fed interventions and more central bank interventions with the tightening of credit is having an impact on the market. But if you look at the physical fundamentals, that doesn't play out. So the physical fundamentals continue to be strong all the way through looking at backwardation in the crude curve at the moment. People still want to be able to get their hands on cargos ASAP. And so those fundamentals are good.

我可以理解對美聯儲干預和更多中央銀行干預以及收緊信貸的反應正在對市場產生影響。但如果你看一下物理基礎，那是行不通的。因此，通過觀察目前原油曲線的現貨溢價，物理基本面繼續保持強勁。人們仍然希望能夠盡快拿到貨物。所以這些基本面是好的。

If I look at demand, we see China coming back. And right now, crude demand in China is almost back to 2019 levels. Of course, there isn't a huge amount of spare capacity left in OPEC. And you add to that the fact that the strategic petroleum reserve is at a historic low. All of it sort of tells you that the supply side is constrained. And this is all assuming Russia continues to produce as it has, which is, in essence, at or slightly above pre-invasion levels. And so the supply side is pretty tight and the question is going to be what happens on the demand side, in particular, in the U.S. and Europe.

如果我看需求，我們會看到中國正在回歸。而現在，中國的原油需求幾乎回到了 2019 年的水平。當然，歐佩克並沒有留下多少閒置產能。你還補充說，戰略石油儲備處於歷史低位。所有這些都在告訴你供應方受到限制。而這一切都假設俄羅斯繼續像現在一樣生產，這在本質上等於或略高於入侵前的水平。因此供應方面非常緊張，問題將是需求方面會發生什麼，特別是在美國和歐洲。

I think on the LNG side, the prompt is weak. You can see that, of course, and that's understandable given the fact that European storage levels are high. We're looking at roughly 55% at the moment in Europe storage, which is high compared to historic averages. But also North Asia has really high storage levels, Japan, Korea. And that's a function of significant storage done last year, and something which I think is putting some of that downward pressure. But if you look to the latter part of this year, the picture is a bit more mixed.

我認為在液化天然氣方面，提示很弱。當然，您可以看到這一點，鑑於歐洲的存儲水平很高，這是可以理解的。我們目前在歐洲存儲中看到大約 55%，這與歷史平均水平相比很高。但北亞、日本、韓國的存儲水平也確實很高。這是去年完成的大量存儲的功能，我認為這會帶來一些下行壓力。但如果你看看今年下半年，情況就有點複雜了。

There isn't a huge amount of new supply coming into the market, no more than 3 million tons for the rest of this year coming on. Maintenance will start to kick in as many of these facilities have been run hard for quite some time. And then, of course, Chinese demand is starting to really pick up. So all of that seems to indicate against a more bullish trend in the second half of this year.

沒有大量新供應進入市場，今年剩餘時間不會超過 300 萬噸。維護工作將開始，因為其中許多設施已經運行了相當長一段時間。然後，當然，中國的需求開始真正回升。因此，所有這些似乎都表明今年下半年的趨勢更為樂觀。

Put all of that together I think for a company like ours, we are well positioned, of course. I mean marketing will typically have stronger quarters in lower commodity price period. Volatility helps us, of course, on the trading and optimization side and so on and so forth. And so I think that's a beauty of the many strong businesses that we are blessed to have as a company. Christyan, thank you for those 2 questions.

綜上所述，我認為對於像我們這樣的公司來說，我們當然處於有利地位。我的意思是，在商品價格較低的時期，營銷通常會有更強勁的季度。當然，波動性在交易和優化方面對我們有幫助，等等。所以我認為這是我們作為一家公司有幸擁有的許多強大業務的優點。克里斯蒂安，謝謝你提出這兩個問題。

The next question is from Amy Wong at Credit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Amy Wong。

I have 2. The first one is -- just thinking about your decarbonization strategy. Based on my analysis, it looks like Shell is relying more heavily on using natural things and carbon capture as part of delivering that decline in CO2 intensity. So could you shed some insight on why that is the case? Or is there any scope to maybe put more emphasis on Scope 1 and 2 reductions as well? That's my first question.

我有 2 個。第一個是 - 只是考慮您的脫碳策略。根據我的分析，殼牌似乎更依賴於使用自然物質和碳捕獲作為實現二氧化碳強度下降的一部分。那麼，您能否解釋一下為什麼會這樣？或者是否有任何範圍可以更加強調範圍 1 和範圍 2 的削減？這是我的第一個問題。

And then my second one is on a rather small piece of your business sectors and decarbonization. I just want to question on that because it's small, but it's quite important in terms of kind of your growth there. And I see that the volumes, the growth there have slowed down significantly and even went backwards quarter-on-quarter as well. So just some insight into what's happening in your sectors and decarbonization offering, that would be very helpful.

然後我的第二個是關於你們業務部門和脫碳的一小部分。我只是想問一下，因為它很小，但就你在那裡的成長而言，它非常重要。而且我看到那裡的數量和增長已經顯著放緩，甚至環比倒退。因此，只要深入了解您的行業和脫碳產品中正在發生的事情，那將非常有幫助。

Great. Thanks, Amy. I'll take the first one, and then if you wanted to take the second one. On the decarbonization strategy, I would look at it, Amy, from 2 perspectives. One is what we can do to be able to bring down our own operational emissions. We've put a target out there of Scope 1 and 2 reductions of 50% by 2030 compared to where we were in 2016. And very pleased by the fact that we've gotten past 30% already with no utilization of credits for the Scope 1 and 2, no offsets, I mean, And we have a pathway to be able to achieve that 50% without a huge amount of dependence on nature-based solutions.

偉大的。謝謝，艾米。我先拿第一個，然後如果你想拿第二個。關於脫碳戰略，艾米，我會從兩個角度來看待它。一是我們可以做些什麼來降低我們自己的運營排放量。與 2016 年相比，我們已經制定了到 2030 年範圍 1 和範圍 2 減少 50% 的目標。並且非常高興的是，我們已經超過 30%，並且沒有利用範圍的信用1 和 2，沒有抵消，我的意思是，我們有一條途徑可以實現 50%，而無需大量依賴基於自然的解決方案。

But absolutely, CCS will be a core part of it because beyond what you can do to abate the emission somewhat through high-grading operational measures and the like. You do need CCS for the bulk of the next wave of reductions, both for Shell and for others. And so continue to be a believer that CCS will play a critical role, as it has in other parts of our portfolio, whether it's in Canada or the project that we're doing in Norway called the Northern Lights project with Equinor and Total.

但毫無疑問，CCS 將成為其中的核心部分，因為除了通過高級運營措施等在某種程度上減少排放之外，你還能做些什麼。對於殼牌和其他公司，您確實需要 CCS 來實現下一波減排的大部分。因此，繼續相信 CCS 將發揮關鍵作用，就像它在我們投資組合的其他部分中一樣，無論是在加拿大還是我們在挪威與 Equinor 和 Total 一起進行的名為北極光項目的項目。

In Scope 3, ultimately, this is all about where our customers want to go. And what we're trying to do on Scope 3 emissions is to be able to build low carbon value chains but the customer needs to be there to be able to buy into those. Now some customers are preferring to package our products with carbon offsets, that's a choice. We will be offering more and more of the lower carbon products. So something like our green hydrogen facility in the Netherlands we'll one day be able to offer green hydrogen molecules. We offer bio products to our customers. But the customer ultimately will need to choose how they want to be able to achieve their own balance of profitability emissions and the like. And so what we see ourselves doing is really offering the choice. And looking to continue to as much as possible, make that attractive for our customers. (inaudible)

在範圍 3 中，最終，這就是我們的客戶想要去的地方。我們在範圍 3 排放方面試圖做的是能夠建立低碳價值鏈，但客戶需要在那裡才能購買這些價值鏈。現在一些客戶更喜歡用碳抵消包裝我們的產品，這是一種選擇。我們將提供越來越多的低碳產品。因此，就像我們在荷蘭的綠色氫設施一樣，我們有一天能夠提供綠色氫分子。我們為客戶提供生物產品。但客戶最終需要選擇他們希望如何實現盈利排放等方面的平衡。因此，我們看到自己所做的是真正提供選擇。並希望盡可能多地繼續這樣做，使其對我們的客戶具有吸引力。 （聽不清）

Sure, indeed. Thanks, Amy, for the question. In terms of sectors and decarbonization, you said it's a small part of Shell at the moment and it is -- it's an incredibly valuable part in terms of where it can go to in the future, particularly. I certainly wouldn't look at it quarter-on-quarter. It just -- it doesn't play out because actually a huge part of what they do, of course, is reacting exactly as well was talking about in terms of what the customer needs are. So you do see lumpiness in it. .

當然，確實。謝謝艾米提出這個問題。在行業和脫碳方面，你說它目前只是殼牌的一小部分，而且它是——就未來的發展方向而言，這是一個非常有價值的部分，尤其是。我當然不會按季度查看它。它只是 - 它沒有發揮作用，因為實際上他們所做的很大一部分，當然，在談論客戶需求方面的反應也是如此。所以你確實看到了它的腫塊。 .

So in terms of the volumes, in particular, we tend to react in terms of what the customer needs in those particular periods. There's different delivery, et cetera. This is one that is going to grow. So I'm very comfortable in that. And we've seen Nature Energy, of course, come through. We just completed it, so you don't start to see those volumes come, but let's talk about that later in the year as well. But that, of course, completed in Q1, and we look forward to seeing its (inaudible) -- its growth trajectory as well.

因此，特別是就數量而言，我們傾向於根據客戶在那些特定時期的需求做出反應。有不同的交付，等等。這是一個將要成長的。所以我對此很滿意。當然，我們已經看到了自然能量的出現。我們剛剛完成它，所以你不會開始看到這些數量的到來，但我們也將在今年晚些時候討論它。但是，當然，這在第一季度完成了，我們也期待看到它的（聽不清）——它的增長軌跡。

The next question is from Irene Himona at Societe Generale.

下一個問題來自法國興業銀行的 Irene Himona。

Congratulations on the results. I've got a couple of questions left. First of all, a specific one on Kashagan. Can you help us appraise at all the risk behind the reported state request for open station from the consortium? And secondly, on capital expenditure, you continue to guide for an unchanged range, $23 billion to $27 billion. I appreciate this question may be answered in June, but I need to ask, as we're approaching midyear, are you not able to pin down the number a little bit more accurately?

祝賀結果。我還有幾個問題。首先，一個關於卡沙幹的具體問題。能不能幫我們評估一下國家要求財團開站背後的所有風險？其次，在資本支出方面，您繼續指導 230 億美元至 270 億美元的不變範圍。我很高興這個問題可能會在 6 月得到回答，但我需要問一下，隨著我們接近年中，您是否無法更準確地確定這個數字？

Great. Do you want to start with the second question?

偉大的。你想從第二個問題開始嗎？

Sure. Thanks, Irene. Thanks for the questions, indeed. So as you say, $23 billion to $27 billion in terms of the range that we're guiding towards. What you see, of course, is that we're very focused in terms of value. So we will take the opportunities that come towards us only in terms of the value lens. And you've seen that discipline coming through where particularly as Wael has discussed, a stepping back from certain projects as well. So you saw some of the ones he mentioned previously related to Bukom and some other ones as well that came through from different questions. .

當然。謝謝，艾琳。謝謝你的問題，確實如此。正如你所說，就我們指導的範圍而言，230 億美元至 270 億美元。當然，您看到的是我們非常注重價值。因此，我們將僅在價值鏡頭方面抓住向我們而來的機會。你已經看到紀律通過 Wael 討論過的地方出現，也從某些項目中退出。所以你看到了他之前提到的一些與 Bukom 相關的問題，以及其他一些來自不同問題的問題。 .

So what I would say on that in a sense of $23 billion to $27 billion we're very comfortable with. We know that will give us the opportunity to deliver against our strategy and to see what other opportunities come there, which have strong, strong value focus. That will be where we go. It will not be by providing numbers above that.

所以我要說的是，在 230 億美元到 270 億美元的意義上，我們非常滿意。我們知道這將使我們有機會實現我們的戰略，並看看那裡還有哪些其他機會，這些機會具有強大的價值重點。那就是我們要去的地方。它不會通過提供高於此的數字來提供。

Thanks, Sinead. And Irene, your first question around Kazakhstan and Kashagan specifically. Indeed, disappointing to see the request for compensation, but not hugely unexpected. We've had challenges in the past. And I think it's fair to say that we have typically resolved them amicably with the Kashagan government. I suspect the same will happen here. I do think we continue to be a major player, of course, in Kazakhstan. We have not just Kashagan, but also Karachaganak. We're making big investments in the country. I've had the opportunity to go there this year, and I'll be going back again later in the year. And I think there's a very clear understanding that we have the opportunity to continue to grow on the basis of a stable and secure investment climate.

謝謝，西尼德。艾琳，你的第一個問題是關於哈薩克斯坦和卡沙甘的。確實，看到賠償請求令人失望，但並非非常意外。我們過去遇到過挑戰。我認為可以公平地說，我們通常與 Kashagan 政府友好地解決了這些問題。我懷疑這裡也會發生同樣的情況。當然，我確實認為我們仍然是哈薩克斯坦的主要參與者。我們不僅有 Kashagan，還有 Karachaganak。我們正在該國進行大量投資。今年我有機會去那裡，今年晚些時候我會再次回去。我認為人們非常清楚地認識到，我們有機會在穩定和安全的投資環境的基礎上繼續發展。

The international or the foreign partners are joined up in our conviction that there is very little basis for the request for compensation. And we'll go through the appropriate channels, both commercial discussions and if needed, from the legal perspective as well to be able to defend our rights. But I do hope that we can resolve this in the right way. Thank you for the question, Irene.

國際或外國合作夥伴一致認為，要求賠償的依據很少。我們將通過適當的渠道，包括商業討論和必要時，從法律角度以及能夠捍衛我們的權利。但我確實希望我們能夠以正確的方式解決這個問題。謝謝你的問題，艾琳。

The next question is from Alastair Syme at Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗的 Alastair Syme。

Wael, Sinead, I wanted to understand where you're seeing unit development costs now across the Upstream and Integrated Gas business? I ask because since the fourth quarter call you've filed the annual report and the annual filings show that your sort of 3-, 5- and 10-year F&D costs remain stubbornly over $20 a barrel. I think you'll tell me that unit development costs are lower than this, but I just worry that the annual reporting numbers are not coming down or aligning to our underlying development costs probably at. Maybe if you could help reconcile that?

Wael、Sinead，我想了解您現在在上游和綜合天然氣業務中看到的單位開發成本在哪裡？我問是因為自第四季度電話會議以來，您已經提交了年度報告，年度報告顯示您的 3 年、5 年和 10 年 F&D 成本仍然頑固地保持在每桶 20 美元以上。我想你會告訴我單位開發成本比這低，但我只是擔心年度報告數字不會下降或與我們的潛在開發成本保持一致。也許你能幫忙調和嗎？

Great. Alastair, thank you for that. Do you want to address that?

偉大的。阿拉斯泰爾，謝謝你。你想解決這個問題嗎？

And thanks for the question, Alastair. And what I would say is we're spending a huge amount of time focusing in on costs across the group, making sure that we are competitive in everything that we do and making sure that we're really quite disciplined about where we spend our dollars. That is across groups. So it's also, as you say, the development space as well. We've had a very good track record in terms of driving these down. Is there more to do and more opportunities? Yes, and we look forward to going after those. Of course, it's very difficult when you look at it across the different types of businesses, but specifically even across the upstream business itself for those different types of wells, different types of fuels, et cetera, but we are continuing to drive those down as well.

感謝阿拉斯泰爾的提問。我要說的是，我們正在花費大量時間關注整個集團的成本，確保我們在所做的每一件事上都具有競爭力，並確保我們在花錢的地方非常自律.那就是跨組。因此，正如您所說，它也是發展空間。在降低這些方面，我們有很好的記錄。是不是有更多的事情要做，更多的機會？是的，我們期待著追求這些。當然，當你在不同類型的業務中查看它時，這是非常困難的，但特別是對於那些不同類型的油井，不同類型的燃料等的上游業務本身，但我們將繼續推動這些業務，因為出色地。

The next question is from Biraj Borkhataria at RBC.

下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Biraj Borkhataria。

Two, please. The first one is on the credit rating. So you're -- you're at A+ and your slides have noted several times that you want to aim for AA credit metrics through the cycle. I'm just trying to understand if there's any sense of urgency here. If I look at your balance sheet, it's always difficult. But if I normalize for things that you don't have relative to peers like hybrids and so on. Your balance sheet is actually cleaner than most of them. But if you're looking for a AA credit rating. Does that -- is the implication that you're looking to sit in a net cash position over time? Any comments around that would be helpful. And then the second question is an easy one, but the Pennsylvania cracker in a mid-cycle chemicals environment, what would you expect the earnings contribution to be from that project? .

兩個，請。第一個是信用評級。所以你 - 你在 A+ 並且你的幻燈片已經多次指出你想要在整個週期中瞄準 AA 信用指標。我只是想了解這裡是否有任何緊迫感。如果我看一下你的資產負債表，它總是很困難。但是，如果我對你沒有的東西進行標準化，比如混合動力等等。您的資產負債表實際上比大多數資產負債表都要乾淨。但是，如果您正在尋找 AA 信用評級。這是否意味著您希望隨著時間的推移保持淨現金頭寸？對此的任何評論都會有所幫助。然後第二個問題很簡單，但是賓夕法尼亞裂解裝置處於週期中期的化學品環境中，您認為該項目的收益貢獻是多少？ .

Thank you for that, Biraj. Do you want to take both of those?

謝謝你，Biraj。你想把這兩個都帶走嗎？

Certainly. On the first one, Biraj, and thank you for that for doing the hard work to actually do a proper comparison, of course, different our peers as well. So recognize that as well. Indeed, it is a healthy balance sheet and something that we've been focused on over the last couple of years, ensuring that, that is the case. Just gives us freedom as you say, for whatever the circumstances might be.

當然。關於第一個問題，Biraj，感謝你辛勤工作以實際進行適當的比較，當然，我們的同行也有所不同。所以也承認這一點。事實上，這是一個健康的資產負債表，也是我們過去幾年一直關注的問題，以確保情況確實如此。就像你說的那樣給我們自由，無論情況如何。

Specifically around the credit rating, I would say, if we look at the credit rating in its entirety, AA is of course, where we aim towards. But of course, you can see what our priorities are as well. We sit comfortably within the metrics range. Of course, the rating agencies will make their choice given their views in terms of the industry risks, et cetera, and they do that with all of our peers as well. You can see what our priorities are with respect to that. We've returned cash in terms of the buybacks this quarter, particularly to the shareholders.

具體圍繞信用評級，我想說，如果我們從整體上看信用評級，AA 當然是我們的目標。但當然，您也可以看到我們的優先事項。我們舒適地坐在指標範圍內。當然，評級機構會根據他們對行業風險等方面的看法做出選擇，他們對我們所有的同行也是如此。你可以看到我們在這方面的優先事項。我們在本季度的回購方面返還了現金，特別是股東。

I think that's where I would focus. In terms of the net debt level, you can see it coming down where we feel it fits. It's about proper capital allocation at the end of the day, and I'm quite comfortable with the levels we're sitting there at the moment. But no, I don't particularly have a focus on the net cash position.

我想這就是我要關注的地方。就淨債務水平而言，你可以看到它在我們認為合適的地方下降。這是關於在一天結束時進行適當的資本配置，我對我們目前所處的水平感到非常滿意。但不，我並不特別關注淨現金頭寸。

Thanks, Sinead. And maybe I'll just pick up the (inaudible) one. It's what we expect, Biraj, there is -- this to be a robust asset going forward. I don't know if we disclosed the numbers, but I think this is a healthy asset in the $1-plus billion earnings range is what we would expect in a normal year. And I suspect, of course, a lot of it is tied to what the macro looks like. But this is a really differentiated asset. We like the fact that we are uniquely positioned in that supply envelope. Roughly 2/3 of industry is around that specific asset. So we can get there from an advantage perspective compared to some of the competitors in the Gulf Coast. And of course, we have access to nicely priced gas in that area. So by and large, this is an asset that should be able to outcompete and is well positioned to do so.

謝謝，西尼德。也許我會拿起（聽不清）一個。這就是我們所期望的，Biraj，這將是一個強大的資產。我不知道我們是否披露了這些數字，但我認為這是 1 多億美元收益範圍內的健康資產，這是我們在正常年份所期望的。當然，我懷疑其中很多與宏的外觀有關。但這是一項真正差異化的資產。我們喜歡這樣一個事實，即我們在供應範圍內處於獨特的位置。大約 2/3 的行業圍繞該特定資產展開。因此，與墨西哥灣沿岸的一些競爭對手相比，我們可以從優勢的角度實現這一目標。當然，我們可以在該地區獲得價格合理的天然氣。所以總的來說，這是一項應該能夠勝過競爭的資產，並且有能力做到這一點。

The next question is from Paul Cheng at Scotiabank.

下一個問題來自豐業銀行的 Paul Cheng。

Two questions. One may be a bit granular. Looking at your E&P gas price realization, I was actually surprised how strong it is, given that the European spot gas price is probably down about $15 and the U.S. Handy HOP is probably down about $3. Can you help us try to reconcile why that your first quarter gas price realization is so strong there? Is it under some kind of lag effect or some one-off adjustments? Second question, I want to go back into CapEx. I mean you gave a range of $23 billion to $27 billion, for both including organic and inorganic. Could you give us a range what is the organic piece it's going to look like?

兩個問題。一個可能有點細化。看看你們的 E&P 天然氣價格實現，我真的很驚訝它有多強，因為歐洲現貨天然氣價格可能下跌約 15 美元，美國 Handy HOP 可能下跌約 3 美元。你能幫助我們嘗試調和為什麼你的第一季度汽油價格實現如此強勁嗎？它是在某種滯後效應下還是在某種一次性調整下？第二個問題，我想回到資本支出。我的意思是你給出了 230 億美元到 270 億美元的範圍，包括有機和無機。你能給我們一個範圍嗎？它看起來像什麼有機物？

Let me pick up the second one and then maybe if you can answer the first one. We don't separate it, Paul. And I hope you'll appreciate we want to make sure that we are deploying that capital in the best way for our shareholders. Sometimes that involves small acquisitions, and sometimes we preferentially go towards an organic investment. It's fair to say that the big bulky one, the $2 billion Nature Energy acquisition sits within the $23 billion to $27 billion range. But when we do guide for that, as you rightly say, we have guided for organic and inorganic within that range this year with the big one being Nature Energy.

讓我拿起第二個，然後也許你可以回答第一個。我們不分開它，保羅。我希望你會理解我們希望確保我們以最好的方式為我們的股東部署這些資金。有時這涉及小型收購，有時我們優先進行有機投資。可以公平地說，以 20 億美元收購 Nature Energy 的大筆交易在 230 億美元至 270 億美元之間。但是，當我們為此提供指導時，正如您正確地說的那樣，我們今年在該範圍內為有機和無機提供了指導，其中最大的是自然能源。

And very simply put on that one, Paul. It's all about very highly localized markets and very much localized prices. And of course, the relevant contracts are in place. I wouldn't go into much more detail on that, particularly on our contracts. So apologies for that.

保羅，非常簡單地穿上那個。這都是關於非常高度本地化的市場和非常本地化的價格。當然，相關合同已經到位。我不會詳細介紹這一點，尤其是關於我們的合同。對此深表歉意。

The next question is from Henri Patricot at UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Henri Patricot。

Two, please. The first one, on the buyback and the contract, we have the CMD next month. But I was hoping you could give some further comments on the background for keeping the buyback flat this quarter despite lower cash flow, a weaker macro at the moment? And then secondly, thinking about the cash flow generation of the rest of this year. Working capital movements have been quite significant the last few quarters. This time, not so much. Is there anything we should have in mind in thinking about working capital movements over the rest of this year beyond the macro changes?

兩個，請。第一個，關於回購和合同，我們下個月有 CMD。但我希望你能就本季度保持回購持平的背景給出一些進一步的評論，儘管現金流量較低，目前宏觀經濟較弱？其次，考慮今年剩餘時間的現金流量產生。過去幾個季度，營運資金流動非常顯著。這一次，沒那麼多。除了宏觀變化之外，在考慮今年剩餘時間的營運資金流動時，我們應該牢記什麼？

(inaudible)

（聽不清）

Yes, happy to. Thank you, Henri. Indeed, I would say we have definitely in terms of utilized outstanding performance from our businesses to ensure we have compelling returns for our shareholders this quarter, I would hope you recognize. What we do in terms of the distribution, of course, is very much the original frame that we've talked about before. It's about 20% to 30% in terms of distribution around CFFO. Of course, what that means is -- and we talked about it that soft ceiling and the hard floor comes into play.

是的，很高興。謝謝你，亨利。事實上，我想說的是，我們肯定會利用我們業務的出色表現來確保本季度我們的股東獲得可觀的回報，我希望你能認識到。當然，我們在分發方面所做的與我們之前討論過的原始框架非常相似。就 CFFO 周圍的分佈而言，它大約是 20% 到 30%。當然，這意味著 - 我們談到軟天花板和硬地板發揮作用。

And it depends then, of course, on a large bit of pragmatism that has to come in. We have to look at it not in terms of isolation across several quarters, of course, because there are those variations that you rightly bring in your second question around working capital and many other things that play out. So we look at it in terms of what we see in terms of our performance and what do we have in terms of the macro coming through as well, and that's how we make the decision. So I would say, yes, if you look back to the previous quarter, of course, sitting at some $21 billion of cash flow from operations compared to, as you said, you described it as weaker in terms of $14 billion, I would say, strong cash flow is the way I would put it, Henri, in terms of this quarter.

當然，這取決於必須引入的大量實用主義。當然，我們不能從幾個季度的孤立角度來看待它，因為你在第二個季度中正確地引入了這些變化關於營運資金和許多其他事情的問題。因此，我們根據我們的表現以及我們在宏觀方面的表現來看待它，這就是我們做出決定的方式。所以我會說，是的，如果你回顧上一季度，當然，運營現金流約為 210 億美元，而正如你所說，你將其描述為 140 億美元，我會說，就本季度而言，亨利，我會說強勁的現金流。

Of course, last quarter, what we saw was some unusuals in there with deposits from joint ventures, et cetera. And we warned that, that would reverse as well. If you look at it across both quarters, what you're seeing is, in effect, much more of a pragmatic decision that came across, what you see is above 35% of distributions coming off CFFO coming across. That was your first one.

當然，上個季度，我們看到了合資企業等方面的一些不尋常之處。我們警告說，這也會逆轉。如果你從兩個季度來看，你所看到的實際上是一個更務實的決定，你看到超過 35% 的分配來自 CFFO。那是你的第一個。

In terms of working capital movements, I will keep it very simple. This is above all of our capital allocation decisions. We make sure that we allocate what is appropriate for what we see the potential value that comes through. Of course, there are some unusuals that happen in that in terms of different things that will occur in terms of if price falls. What occurs in terms of the inventory levels, et cetera. But I wouldn't predict where it's going to go later this year. It will very much depend on where prices go to and where we see opportunity to truly generate value.

在營運資金流動方面，我會保持非常簡單。這首先是我們所有的資本配置決策。我們確保我們分配適合我們看到的潛在價值的東西。當然，如果價格下跌會發生不同的事情，就會發生一些不尋常的事情。在庫存水平等方面發生了什麼。但我不會預測今年晚些時候它會去哪裡。這在很大程度上取決於價格走向以及我們在哪裡看到真正創造價值的機會。

The next question is from Christopher Kuplent at Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Christopher Kuplent。

I think I wasn't fast enough pressing. My questions have been asked, but I'll try anyway. Sorry for wasting your time. I hope I'm not. On CapEx, you mentioned Nature Energy. And indeed, it's already in your Q1 number, right? So what we're actually seeing is ex Nature Energy, a run rate below $5 billion. Should we assume a famous question that therefore, your current run rate organically looks at a full year of $20 billion and you're sort of leaving yourself M&A headroom?

我認為我的施壓速度不夠快。我的問題已經被問到，但我還是會嘗試。抱歉浪費您的時間。我希望我不是。關於資本支出，您提到了 Nature Energy。事實上，它已經在您的 Q1 號碼中了，對吧？所以我們實際看到的是前 Nature Energy，運行率低於 50 億美元。因此，我們是否應該假設一個著名的問題，即您目前的運行率有機地看起來全年為 200 億美元，並且您有點給自己留出併購空間？

Or are there a certain number of project phasings that you'd like to make us aware of? Whether it's FIDs that you're planning that are still ahead that you can already see today, I'm obviously not asking about future M&A announcements. And then secondly, again, without wanting to touch on CAD messages, but again Sinead, perhaps you wanted to give you the opportunity to highlight to us why yet again, you feel happy going over and beyond your 20% to 30% payout ratio.

或者您是否想讓我們了解一定數量的項目階段？無論您計劃的 FID 是否仍然領先於您今天已經看到的，我顯然不是在詢問未來的併購公告。其次，再次不想觸及 CAD 消息，但 Sinead，也許你想給你機會向我們強調為什麼你再次感到高興超過 20% 到 30% 的支付率。

Go ahead, both?

繼續，兩個？

Sure. Thanks, Chris. I'm very happy to take both of them. So in terms of the CapEx number, you're correct that we actually are looking at some $6.5 billion for this quarter, and it does include Nature Energy. But please don't assume that subtracting it and then multiplying by 4 is indicative of where we will end up. If you look back at time, you'll see that we typically are a lot lower in Q1 in terms of our CapEx. So there's no indicative of where you would expect us to end up.

當然。謝謝，克里斯。我很高興把他們兩個都帶走。因此，就資本支出數字而言，您是正確的，我們實際上正在為本季度尋找約 65 億美元，其中確實包括 Nature Energy。但是請不要假設減去它然後乘以 4 就是我們最終結果的指示。如果你回顧過去，你會發現我們在第一季度的資本支出通常要低得多。所以沒有跡象表明你會期望我們結束。

And we do have a number of things that will come through in the course of the year. We've already spoken about, of course, some of the FIDs that are coming. So as you start to see different aspects, different projects. And the development of those coming through as well continues to stand as we see (inaudible) continue to spend, et cetera, you will see that flowing through as well.

我們確實有很多事情會在這一年中發生。當然，我們已經談到了一些即將到來的 FID。所以當你開始看到不同的方面，不同的項目。正如我們所看到的（聽不清）繼續花費等等，那些通過的人的發展也將繼續存在，你也會看到它也在流動。

So I would not suggest that it is indicative. I would say there are other aspects in there as well. We've entered into things like if I look at our [red] space, battery storage in Australia, you'll start to see that phasing coming through as well, which isn't there in Q1. So please don't take it as a historical number in any way and no it's a lot about building for M&A headroom at all. So I would definitely confirm that.

所以我不建議它是指示性的。我想說還有其他方面。我們已經進入了一些事情，比如如果我看看我們在澳大利亞的 [紅色] 空間，電池存儲，你會開始看到分階段進行，這在第一季度是沒有的。因此，請不要以任何方式將其視為歷史數字，並且根本不涉及為併購淨空進行建設。所以我肯定會確認這一點。

In terms of second question -- in terms of being above the 20% to 30%, and it's very much about performance. So again, as I will go back to Chris, as we go through that decision point, we're looking at to make sure we're not doing it in isolation, and there has to be some pragmatism in this, which I'm sure you understand. What we're looking at is, do we truly believe in the performance of this company that we can deliver on that buyback at this point in time and do believe in where the macro is going to -- how does that position us across it? With a healthy balance sheet, operating assets -- sorry, assets operating incredibly well. It gives us the confidence to do the $4 billion of buyback. I hope that helps.

關於第二個問題——就超過 20% 到 30% 而言，這在很大程度上與績效有關。所以，我要再一次回到克里斯，當我們通過那個決定點時，我們正在考慮確保我們不是孤立地做這件事，而且在這方面必須有一些實用主義，我是你肯定明白。我們正在看的是，我們是否真的相信這家公司的表現，我們可以在這個時間點實現回購，並且相信宏觀將走向何方——這將如何定位我們？擁有健康的資產負債表，經營資產——抱歉，資產經營得非常好。它讓我們有信心進行 40 億美元的回購。我希望這有幫助。

The next question is from Lucas Herrmann at Exane.

下一個問題來自 Exane 的 Lucas Herrmann。

A couple, if I may. Sinead, I wanted to go back to Biraj's question first of all and try and understand how you think about the operating lease component of debt. Clearly, it's the majority of your debt or operating finance leases, the majority of your debt. It's really just to get a sense of, I guess, ultimately where you feel bank or commercial debt or what level we should be thinking about you driving towards.

一對，如果可以的話。 Sinead，我想首先回到 Biraj 的問題，並嘗試了解您如何看待債務的經營租賃部分。顯然，這是你的大部分債務或經營性融資租賃，你的大部分債務。我想，這實際上只是為了了解您最終感覺到銀行或商業債務的位置，或者我們應該考慮讓您朝著什麼水平前進。

As I think of this in the past, it's quite difficult to get a sense from this side. So that was observation, number one. But the second, and I don't know, again, that this is more appropriate for Capital Markets Day, but if I look at the build in some of the transition growth businesses, EVs, biogas, biofuels, others. Clearly, you're putting quite a lot of capital cost in. We can see returns deteriorating across some of the divisions. I suspect there's reasons. You're also obviously putting quite a lot of operating cost in.

過去想起來，從這方面很難有感覺。所以這是觀察，第一。但第二個，我也不知道，這是否更適合資本市場日，但如果我看看一些轉型增長業務、電動汽車、沼氣、生物燃料等的建設。很明顯，你投入了大量的資本成本。我們可以看到一些部門的回報正在惡化。我懷疑是有原因的。你顯然也投入了大量的運營成本。

How do we get a sense of the expense which the underlying performance of the existing businesses is -- I'm going to use the term suffering or certainly the headline numbers are suffering as a consequence of operating and CapEx growth spend. In part almost what's the scale of the OpEx and CapEx growth spend at this time?

我們如何了解現有業務的基本績效所帶來的費用——我將使用“痛苦”一詞，或者肯定是標題數字因運營和資本支出增長支出而受到影響。在某種程度上，此時 OpEx 和 CapEx 增長支出的規模幾乎是多少？

Thank you for those questions, Lucas. Do you want to take the first one? I can take the second one.

謝謝你提出這些問題，盧卡斯。你想拿第一個嗎？我可以拿第二個。

Absolutely, Lucas, so indeed, when you look at leases again, I apologize. I feel like I'm repeating too much but it really is just about the value side of things. So we discuss it actually as part of our capital allocation as well. So in the same way as when we -- when we've talked before about our sort of Capital Investment Committee and the teams come to us with opportunities. We do the same with large leases as well. .

絕對是，盧卡斯，確實如此，當你再次查看租約時，我深表歉意。我覺得我重複得太多了，但這真的只是關於事物的價值方面。因此，我們實際上也將其作為我們資本配置的一部分進行討論。所以就像我們 - 當我們之前談到過我們的資本投資委員會和團隊帶著機會來找我們時一樣。我們也對大型租約做同樣的事情。 .

So a huge number of our leases are related, of course, to our midstream and particularly around integrated gas, as you can imagine, particularly around the vessels, et cetera. So we take those from the point of view of just value. So it doesn't make sense to lock in now, same with some of our FPSOs, et cetera. We make the call to lock in now versus different things that will come in the future. It serves us very well to do so. But that's really the focus that comes in on that.

因此，我們的大量租約當然與我們的中游相關，尤其是圍繞綜合天然氣，正如您可以想像的那樣，尤其是圍繞船舶等。所以我們從公正價值的角度來看待這些問題。所以現在鎖定是沒有意義的，就像我們的一些 FPSO 等一樣。我們呼籲現在鎖定而不是將來會發生的不同事情。這樣做對我們很有好處。但這確實是關注的焦點。

I think, Lucas, the second bit, which I'm certainly not avoiding, but you asked but is there a level that we should look at. For me, there isn't. I fundamentally uncomfortable with where we are in terms of our debt level at the moment. Will I see opportunities to take it down? And you saw that, you saw us reduce. Last quarter, you see us reduce a smaller amount this quarter as well. But I'm also very comfortable if our debt level has to go up as well because we will do a link back to that value conversation.

我想，盧卡斯，第二點，我當然不會迴避，但你問過我們應該關注的水平。對我來說，沒有。我從根本上對我們目前的債務水平感到不安。我會看到取消它的機會嗎？你看到了，你看到我們減少了。上個季度，您看到我們在本季度也減少了較小的數量。但如果我們的債務水平也必須上升，我也很放心，因為我們將與價值對話建立聯繫。

So if you remember in Q3, many comments about the performance in Q3, but particularly our debt level did go up. It was for a very good reason. We were very comfortable. And you can see the performance coming through, particularly from integrated gas in Q4 and Q1 accordingly. So I'm comfortable that my debt levels will merge. But I would say just back to that first one on, specifically on the operating leases, it is very closely managed and is very much a focus as well.

所以如果你還記得第三季度，很多關於第三季度業績的評論，尤其是我們的債務水平確實上升了。這是有充分理由的。我們住得很舒服。您可以看到性能的提升，尤其是第四季度和第一季度的綜合天然氣。所以我很高興我的債務水平會合併。但我想說回到第一個，特別是關於經營租賃，它受到非常密切的管理，也是一個非常關注的焦點。

Thank you for that, Sinead. Lucas, on your broader question, I think a few things to point out. One, from a strategic perspective, we're absolutely convinced that biomolecules, green electron-based molecules eventually and so on, will dictate the premium in the market. And we see that actually in a number of different markets. I mean our Bio business has been doing very, very well. driven largely by regulatory requirement, right? So compliance requirements, but also increasingly through voluntary demand by certain enterprises that have made net-zero commitment. So there is a very attractive market.

謝謝你，西尼德。盧卡斯，關於你的更廣泛的問題，我認為有幾點需要指出。第一，從戰略角度來看，我們絕對相信生物分子、綠色電子分子等最終將決定市場溢價。我們實際上在許多不同的市場中都看到了這一點。我的意思是我們的生物業務一直做得非常非常好。很大程度上是由監管要求驅動的，對吧？所以合規要求，也越來越多地通過某些做出淨零承諾的企業的自願要求。所以有一個非常有吸引力的市場。

Now like any investment profile, you're going to have to put some of that capital upfront. And here, we need to be very conscious and very transparent around where we are deploying that capital. I hope you see that. But indeed, Capital Markets Day, we can talk a bit more about the specifics across the different segments. And we need to be very conscious of the OpEx. And I've already said and I think Sinead has also said, we feel that the OpEx is on the heavier side at the moment. So we are very focused on how we are going to be able to manage the allocation, not just of the CapEx but also of the OpEx.

現在就像任何投資概況一樣，您將不得不預先投入一些資金。在這裡，我們需要對我們部署資金的地方非常有意識和非常透明。我希望你能看到。但事實上，在資本市場日，我們可以多談談不同領域的具體細節。我們需要非常注意 OpEx。我已經說過，我認為 Sinead 也說過，我們認為目前的 OpEx 偏重。因此，我們非常關注我們將如何能夠管理分配，不僅是資本支出，還有運營支出。

And we will continue, of course, to refine the transparency of the numbers that we are sharing with you to give you the sort of insights that allow you to determine whether we are appropriately investing shareholder capital, which I can assure you, we spend a lot of time on internally, not just in terms of the decisions we're making, but a lot of look backs on the wisdom of the choices we're making, what can we learn and how can we optimize and improve going forward. And you will see more and more of that come through.

當然，我們將繼續改進我們與您分享的數字的透明度，以便為您提供某種見解，讓您確定我們是否適當地投資股東資本，我可以向你保證，我們花了很多時間在內部，不僅僅是在我們正在做出的決定方面，而是很多回顧我們正在做出的選擇的智慧，我們可以學到什麼以及我們如何優化和改進未來。你會看到越來越多的事情發生。

But it is a critical piece that we're going to have to accept that to be able to create those sustainable returns that are going to come in the latter part of this decade, we need to make some investments right now. We need to be measured. We need to be choiceful. But we also need to be very clear that we see pathways towards double-digit returns for those investments, which is what we are very focused on when it comes to the Capital Investment Committee (inaudible) . Thank you for those questions, Lucas.

但我們必須接受的一個關鍵部分是，為了能夠創造將在本十年後半期出現的可持續回報，我們需要立即進行一些投資。我們需要衡量。我們需要有所選擇。但我們也需要非常清楚，我們看到了這些投資實現兩位數回報的途徑，這是我們在談到資本投資委員會時非常關注的（聽不清）。謝謝你提出這些問題，盧卡斯。

The next question is from Henry Tarr at Berenberg.

下一個問題來自 Berenberg 的 Henry Tarr。

Two, one is just on chemicals, which is clearly sort of cyclically weak currently and you have the cracker in Pennsylvania ramping up. But what's the outlook for the utilization of assets and margins there? And what are you aiming for as well as the assets do come back on in terms of sort of returns through cycle? And then secondly, just in terms of operating costs, I think you talked about those a little bit. Are you seeing inflation currently coming through the supply chain? Or is that moderating at this point?

第二，一個只是關於化學品，目前顯然是周期性疲軟，賓夕法尼亞州的餅乾正在增加。但那裡的資產和利潤利用前景如何？你的目標是什麼，以及資產在整個週期的回報率方面確實回來了？其次，就運營成本而言，我想你已經談到了一些。您是否看到當前供應鏈中出現通貨膨脹？還是此時正在緩和？

I can take the second one, if you want. Do you want to talk about chemicals?

如果你願意，我可以拿第二個。你想談談化學品嗎？

Sure. Happy to. In terms of the chemical side of things. So indeed, we saw margins actually improve, of course, this quarter, largely due to the sort of lower prices on feedstocks there, Henry. But indeed, I think where we will go to -- because you asked specifically about utilization going forward. We've provided some of the guidance in terms of the quarterly update notes. So you'll see that coming through as well.

當然。高興。就事物的化學方面而言。因此，事實上，我們看到利潤率實際上有所提高，當然，本季度，主要是由於那裡的原料價格較低，亨利。但事實上，我認為我們會去哪裡——因為你特別詢問了未來的利用率。我們已經根據季度更新說明提供了一些指導。所以你也會看到這一點。

We don't tend to advise on the -- or give forward-looking on the specific assets. But of course, it will be purely about economic optimization. So we will ensure that if it's looking like there's great margins, we will try to keep those assets up. If it is not, we will ensure that it is by an economic decision. In the same way as we looked at this quarter, ensuring that Norco our refining side of things. We saw Norco stay up this quarter, and we will push the maintenance to later. So those will be the decisions that we will make.

我們不傾向於就特定資產提供建議或給予前瞻性。但當然，這將純粹是關於經濟優化。因此，我們將確保，如果看起來利潤率很高，我們將努力保持這些資產。如果不是，我們將通過經濟決策確保它。與我們看待本季度的方式相同，確保 Norco 在我們的精煉方面。我們看到 Norco 這個季度一直在熬夜，我們會把維護推到後面。所以這些將是我們將做出的決定。

And I think your second part of the first question was return to the cycle indeed. Very much focused on ensuring that we have a robust level of return, which is acceptable for each of these businesses, where we go to on this. We've given those IRRs as we've come through before as well.

我認為您在第一個問題的第二部分確實是回到了周期。非常專注於確保我們擁有穩健的回報水平，這對於我們所從事的每一項業務都是可以接受的。我們也給出了我們之前經歷過的那些內部收益率。

Thanks, Sinead. Henry on the OpEx question, we do see pressures coming through. 10% to 15% is on average, what we're seeing, but I think that's a bit of a blunt instrument because, of course, it depends on the category. Our scale helps here. So we're leveraging significantly our supply chain organization to be able to use the weight and the demand of Shell to mitigate some of the impact of that.

謝謝，西尼德。亨利在運營支出問題上，我們確實看到了壓力。 10% 到 15% 是我們所看到的平均水平，但我認為這有點生硬，因為當然，這取決於類別。我們的規模在這裡有所幫助。因此，我們正在大力利用我們的供應鏈組織，以便能夠利用殼牌的重量和需求來減輕其中的一些影響。

So it's coming in below 10%, but that's because of the many levers that we have to draw on. But once again, I think it's very local. It's very circumstantial. We pick up. We're no longer, for example, in the shales patch in the U.S. We recognize that seeing a lot more inflationary pressure. In parts of the Middle East, where we are making investments and where we have day-to-day OpEx, we don't see a huge amount of bump-up. And Europe is indeed experiencing a bit more inflation. So it is very circumstantial.

所以它低於 10%，但這是因為我們必須利用許多槓桿。但再一次，我認為它非常本地化。這是非常間接的。我們接。例如，我們不再處於美國的頁岩油田。我們認識到，通脹壓力要大得多。在中東的部分地區，我們正在進行投資並且我們有日常的運營支出，我們沒有看到大量的增長。歐洲確實正在經歷更多的通貨膨脹。所以這是非常間接的。

And our weight and our size, I think, allows us to be able to manage it. But also we're being very choiceful around where do we continue to cut back in areas that we no longer see running room for ourselves, so that we can actually redeploy our scarce OpEx into the areas where we can find the biggest bang for buck for the future. So being very choiceful around, a bit like what we're trying to do for the CapEx, of course. Thank you for the question.

我認為，我們的體重和身材使我們能夠應對。但我們也非常有選擇地圍繞我們在我們不再看到自己運行空間的領域繼續削減哪些領域，以便我們實際上可以將我們稀缺的 OpEx 重新部署到我們可以找到最大收益的領域未來。所以非常有選擇性，當然有點像我們試圖為資本支出做的事情。感謝你的提問。

The next question is from Kim Fustier at HSBC.

下一個問題來自匯豐銀行的 Kim Fustier。

I have 2, please. Firstly, I'd like to follow up on the cancellation of the Bukom conversion projects. Are you able to give any more detail on why you pulled the plug? Was it the cost associated with the conversion project or the location or the lack of feedstock in the region? What do you now intend to do with that facility? And in terms of your SaaS production target that you had by 2025, I think, do you believe you're still on track to hit that target?

我有 2 個。首先，我想跟進Bukom轉換項目的取消。你能提供更多關於你拔掉插頭的原因的細節嗎？是與轉換項目或地點相關的成本，還是該地區缺乏原料？你現在打算用那個設施做什麼？就您到 2025 年的 SaaS 生產目標而言，我認為，您是否相信您仍有望實現該目標？

And secondly, could you provide an update on Nigeria. I think oil production in the country had recovered over the past year or so, but we've seen more outages in the last few weeks. So what's the latest there both on the oil side and the LNG side? And then anything on the potential disposal?

其次，你能否介紹一下尼日利亞的最新情況。我認為該國的石油生產在過去一年左右的時間裡已經恢復，但在過去幾週我們看到了更多的中斷。那麼石油方面和液化天然氣方面的最新情況是什麼？然後是關於潛在處置的任何內容？

Okay. Thanks for that, Kim. I'll take the first one. If you want to take the second one, Sinead. On your question there came around Bukom. So that's our Singapore facility. It's refinery there, and we have right next to it Jurong which is our petrochemical complex. And we have been developing options for 2 particular projects. One was a Hafa plant. So Bio for sustainable aviation fuels. And the second one was a basal unit as feedstock to our lubricants business. And we developed the plans for it. But ultimately, the economics was simply not robust enough.

好的。謝謝你，金。我要第一個。如果你想選第二個，Sinead。關於你的問題，Bukom 來了。這就是我們的新加坡工廠。那裡是煉油廠，旁邊就是我們的石化廠裕廊。我們一直在為 2 個特定項目開發選項。一個是 Hafa 工廠。 So Bio 用於可持續航空燃料。第二個是基礎單元，作為我們潤滑油業務的原料。我們為此制定了計劃。但最終，經濟學根本不夠穩健。

Biggest reason for the bio plant was the fact that actually in Asia, we don't yet see the regulatory requirements in place that would potentially create the price points that would make this an attractive investment to make. We see those for example, in Europe, where we are investing in a similar plant at our Pernis facility in the Netherlands. So you need the market to be able to be there, and we were simply choiceful in our allocation of capital. If the market isn't there, we're not going to simply invest that capital, hoping it's going to come.

生物工廠的最大原因是事實上在亞洲，我們還沒有看到可能創造價格點的監管要求，這將使這項投資成為一項有吸引力的投資。例如，我們在歐洲看到了這些，我們在荷蘭的 Pernis 工廠投資了一個類似的工廠。所以你需要市場才能存在，而我們在資本配置上只是有選擇。如果市場不存在，我們就不會簡單地投資那些資本，希望它會到來。

And similar calculus on basal. So both of them, I would say, were very specifically project-specific economic decisions that we made in that regard. Now of course, our staff are running the much broader facility that we have there and continue to do so. And of course, we continue to look at how we can optimize our margins in those facilities, pulling on all the levers we have, both on the top line as well as on the bottom line.

和基礎上的類似微積分。因此，我想說，它們都是我們在這方面做出的非常具體的項目特定經濟決策。當然，現在我們的員工正在運行我們在那裡擁有的更廣泛的設施，並將繼續這樣做。當然，我們將繼續研究如何優化這些設施的利潤，利用我們擁有的所有槓桿，無論是在頂線還是在底線上。

Indeed. And thank you for that, Kim. In terms of Nigeria, so I would start, first of all, with the fact that we've -- of course, we've discussed our intent in terms of exiting from the onshore oil side of that business. So that intent is, of course, there. We stand behind that. Of course, it is currently paused given some of the -- given specifically the injunction in the court case, but that is the intent and nothing has changed there. .

的確。謝謝你，金。就尼日利亞而言，首先，我要從一個事實開始——當然，我們已經討論了退出該業務的陸上石油方面的意圖。所以這個意圖當然是存在的。我們支持這一點。當然，鑑於一些——特別是法庭案件中的禁令，它目前暫停了，但這就是意圖，那裡沒有任何改變。 .

In the meantime, we continue to operate safely and efficiently the assets through the joint venture that is there, SPDC, which is the onshore joint venture. So what I would say is the team are working very hard to ensure there's appropriate delivery on the oil side. And of course, we are blessed with many partners in the LNG business, which is very attractive as we go through at the moment.

與此同時，我們繼續通過現有的合資企業 SPDC（在岸合資企業）安全高效地運營資產。所以我要說的是，團隊正在非常努力地工作，以確保石油方面有適當的交付。當然，我們有幸在液化天然氣業務中擁有許多合作夥伴，這在我們目前所經歷的過程中非常有吸引力。

Beyond that, what I would say, of course, is I think you're alluding to some of the activities, particularly with some of our peers. In terms of offshore, I would leave that to the operator to comment on specifically. So once again, we're very much focused on those assets where we operate, making sure that we deliver and we're making sure that we bring the performance up increasingly. That's what you're seeing in terms of the results, which is what is driving the results that we had, which are outstanding this quarter and allowing us to be able to give those compelling returns to our shareholders as well.

除此之外，我當然要說的是，我認為你指的是一些活動，特別是與我們的一些同行。在離岸方面，我會留給運營商具體評論。因此，我們再次非常關注我們運營的那些資產，確保我們交付並確保我們不斷提高性能。這就是你所看到的結果，這就是推動我們取得結果的原因，這些結果在本季度表現出色，並使我們能夠為我們的股東提供令人信服的回報。

Thank you, Sinead. And Kim, thank you for that, which ends up being the final question. And Dan, thank you for taking care of us today. Thank you all for your questions and for joining the call. We wish everyone a pleasant end of the week and hope that you can join us at our Capital Markets Day 2023 next month in New York. Thanks all.

謝謝你，西尼德。金，謝謝你，這最終成為最後一個問題。丹，謝謝你今天照顧我們。感謝大家提出問題並加入電話會議。我們祝大家週末愉快，並希望您能參加下個月在紐約舉行的 2023 年資本市場日。謝謝大家。