殼牌 (SHEL) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Shell's Third Quarter 2023 Financial Results Announcement.

歡迎閱讀殼牌 2023 年第三季財務業績公告。

Shell's CFO, Sinead Gorman, will present the results then host a Q&A session along with Shell's CEO, Wael Sawan. (Operator Instructions)

殼牌財務長 Sinead Gorman 將介紹業績，然後與殼牌執行長 Wael Sawan 一起主持問答環節。 （操作員說明）

We will now begin the presentation.

我們現在開始演示。

Welcome to Shell's third quarter results presentation. During Capital Markets Day in June, we outlined how we will deliver more value with less emissions, guided by our principles of performance, discipline and simplification. These principles are driving our everyday decisions and actions with the ultimate aim of enhancing shareholder value. Nearly 5 months on and we're capturing opportunities that are delivering robust results and furthering our strategy. And there have been some great examples of performance this quarter.

歡迎來到殼牌第三季業績發表會。在六月的資本市場日期間，我們概述瞭如何在績效、紀律和簡化原則的指導下，以更少的排放創造更多的價值。這些原則推動著我們的日常決策和行動，最終目標是提高股東價值。近 5 個月過去了，我們正在抓住機會，帶來強勁的業績並進一步推進我們的策略。本季度出現了一些出色的業績範例。

Take Pearl GTL, in Qatar, which has one of its best operational performances with a controllable availability of 97%. Or Timi, in Malaysia, where gas production has started. This unmanned platform is more cost efficient than the conventional platform because it is around 60% lighter in weight. Timi is also powered by solar and wind energy, overall, a great example of how we can reduce both costs and emissions from our operations.

以卡達的 Pearl GTL 為例，它是營運績效最好的項目之一，可控可用性高達 97%。或者是馬來西亞的蒂米，那裡已經開始生產天然氣。這種無人平台比傳統平台更具成本效益，因為它的重量減輕了約 60%。總體而言，Timi 還由太陽能和風能提供動力，這是我們如何降低營運成本和排放的一個很好的例子。

In our Downstream business, we are seeing that our EV strategy is progressing in China. In Shenzhen, together with BYD, we have opened Shell's largest global charging site for electric vehicles. With 258 public fast-charging points, it is already serving more than 3,300 EV customers today. China is the world's largest EV market, and our Shell recharge network of charge points in the country has grown to 25,000 and is already CFFO-positive. This demonstrates the pathway to the profitable decarbonization of our global mobility network.

在我們的下游業務中，我們看到我們的電動車策略在中國正在取得進展。在深圳，我們與比亞迪合作開設了殼牌全球最大的電動車充電站。擁有 258 個公共快速充電點，目前已為 3,300 多名電動車客戶提供服務。中國是全球最大的電動車市場，我們在中國的殼牌充電站充電網路已增至 25,000 個，且 CFFO 已呈正值。這展示了我們的全球出行網絡脫碳獲利的途徑。

Another performance highlight comes from our joint venture, Raizen, in Brazil, which started producing biofuel made from sugarcane waste at its new second-generation ethanol plant, the world's largest. Raizen is helping customers to reduce their emissions and is already turning cash to Shell while continuing to invest in the energy transition.

另一個業績亮點來自我們位於巴西的合資企業 Raizen，該公司開始在其全球最大的新第二代乙醇工廠生產由甘蔗廢料製成的生物燃料。 Raizen 正在幫助客戶減少排放，並已向殼牌提供現金，同時繼續投資於能源轉型。

We continue to maintain discipline and have taken the decision to further lower our 2023 cash CapEx outlook to $23 billion to $25 billion. This already puts us ahead of schedule in terms of delivering the range target for 2024 and 2025. We are able to do this as we have kept the bar high for all opportunities, reflecting our strong commitment to capital discipline and value generation.

我們繼續保持紀律，並決定將 2023 年現金資本支出前景進一步降低至 230 億至 250 億美元。這已經使我們提前實現了 2024 年和 2025 年的範圍目標。我們之所以能夠做到這一點，是因為我們對所有機會都保持了高標準，反映了我們對資本紀律和價值創造的堅定承諾。

And our journey of Simplification continues to progress. We agreed to sell our home energy business in the U.K. and in Germany as well as our Shell Pakistan business. And following the strategic review we announced earlier this year, divestment is a priority focus for our Singapore refining and chemical assets at the moment. These have not been easy decisions. But these are necessary steps to further simplify and focus our portfolio and to move us closer to the targets we set at Capital Markets Day. And we will give you an update on our progress against our financial targets in our Q4 results presentation.

我們的簡化之旅仍在繼續前進。我們同意出售我們在英國和德國的家庭能源業務以及殼牌巴基斯坦業務。繼我們今年稍早宣布的策略評估之後，撤資是我們新加坡煉油和化工資產目前的優先重點。這些都不是容易的決定。但這些是進一步簡化和集中我們的投資組合並使我們更接近資本市場日設定的目標的必要步驟。我們將在第四季度的業績報告中向您介紹我們在實現財務目標方面的最新進展。

Moving now to our results. In the third quarter, we delivered robust financial results. Our adjusted earnings were $6.2 billion, and we delivered $12.3 billion of cash flow from operations. The improved results were driven by a better macro environment, including increased refining margins, coupled with higher production in Upstream. This follows the successful completion of maintenance work in the Gulf of Mexico, where we produce higher-value barrels. At the same time, we saw continued low margins in Chemicals, where we keep seeking opportunities for economic optimization.

現在來看我們的結果。第三季度，我們取得了強勁的財務表現。我們的調整後收益為 62 億美元，營運現金流為 123 億美元。績效的改善是由更好的宏觀環境所推動的，包括煉油利潤的增加以及上游產量的增加。在此之前，我們在墨西哥灣成功完成了維護工作，我們在那裡生產更高價值的桶子。同時，我們看到化學品行業的利潤率持續較低，我們不斷尋求經濟優化的機會。

Moving on to our financial framework. I've already shared with you our lower cash CapEx outlook for this year. And in terms of net debt, it remained stable at around $40 billion.

繼續我們的財務框架。我已經與您分享了我們今年較低的現金資本支出前景。而淨債務方面，穩定在400億美元左右。

Now let's take a look at shareholder distributions. We continue to preferentially allocate capital to share buybacks as we believe that our shares are undervalued. And that's why today, we are announcing a $3.5 billion share buyback program to be completed over the next 3 months. This brings our second half announced share buybacks to $6.5 billion, exceeding the target set at Capital Markets Day by $1.5 billion. And with the step up we did in Q2, our dividend per share in Q3 is now 32% higher than in the same quarter last year.

現在我們來看看股東分配狀況。由於我們認為我們的股票被低估，因此我們繼續優先將資本分配給股票回購。這就是為什麼今天我們宣布將在未來 3 個月內完成 35 億美元的股票回購計畫。這使得我們下半年宣布的股票回購達到 65 億美元，比資本市場日設定的目標多了 15 億美元。隨著我們在第二季所做的努力，我們第三季的每股股息現在比去年同期高出 32%。

In summary, this quarter, we have delivered robust results whilst providing the secure energy our customers need, and we continue our focus on performance, discipline and simplification. We have backed up our words with actions, and we will continue to do so. At Capital Markets Day, we set out a path to increase shareholder value, and that is exactly what we are doing. Today's announced share buyback program elevates our total announced shareholder distributions to around $23 billion for the full year 2023. These returns mean we are delivering towards the top end of our shareholder distribution range, showcasing our strong commitment to be the investment case through the energy transition. Thank you.

總而言之，本季度，我們在提供客戶所需的安全能源的同時取得了強勁的業績，並且我們繼續專注於性能、紀律和簡化。我們已經用行動證明了我們的承諾，並將繼續這樣做。在資本市場日，我們制定了一條增加股東價值的途徑，而這正是我們正在做的事情。今天宣布的股票回購計畫將我們宣布的2023 年全年股東分配總額提高到約230 億美元。這些回報意味著我們正在向股東分配範圍的高端邁進，展示了我們對成為能源轉型投資案例的堅定承諾。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Thank you for joining us today. We hope that after watching this presentation, you've seen how we have delivered robust results and how we continue to focus on our guiding principles. Today, Sinead and I will be answering your questions. And now, please, could we have the 1 or 2 questions per person so that everyone gets the opportunity? And with that, could we have the first one, please, Luke?

感謝您今天加入我們。我們希望在觀看本次演示後，您能夠了解我們如何交付穩健的成果以及我們如何繼續專注於我們的指導原則。今天，我和西尼德將回答大家的問題。現在，我們可以為每人提出 1 到 2 個問題，以便每個人都有機會嗎？那麼，盧克，我們可以要第一個嗎？

Our first caller is Oswald Clint from Bernstein.

我們的第一個來電者是來自伯恩斯坦的奧斯瓦爾德·克林特。

I like the slide today showing some of the high-grading moves and some of the longevity decisions you've been taking recently. Probably it's only a snapshot, but it seems to be a lot high-grading moves and longevity moves in terms of the map. So it always begs the question of pipeline depth and pipeline length. So I know we discussed this a little bit back in June, but just in the context of some of the recent, let's say, chunkier deals in the sector, are you still feeling as confident in terms of the portfolio depths? That's the first question.

我喜歡今天的幻燈片，它展示了您最近做出的一些高級別舉措和一些長期決策。大概只是一個快照，但從地圖上看，似乎有很多高等級招式和長生招式。所以總是迴避管道深度和管道長度的問題。所以我知道我們在 6 月就討論過這個問題，但就最近該行業的一些交易而言，您是否仍然對投資組合深度充滿信心？這是第一個問題。

And then on the topics of high-grading, my second question was on the underlying OpEx trends, I think year-to-date $28 billion, it's about flat versus last year. And I'm just thinking ahead to the $2 billion to $3 billion structural cost elimination by the end of 2025. Maybe you could help us think about the big buckets or decisions that will help us get closer to seeing that number come out of the cost structure, please.

然後，關於高等級主題，我的第二個問題是關於基本營運支出趨勢，我認為今年迄今為 280 億美元，與去年持平。我只是在考慮到 2025 年底消除 20 億至 30 億美元的結構性成本。也許您可以幫助我們考慮哪些大項目或決策，以幫助我們更接近看到這個數字來自成本結構，請。

Super. Thanks for that, Oswald. I'll take the first question, and I'll come to you Sinead for the second one. First, also to your point around the strategy and where we are, really real conviction in the continued pathway that we have taken and that we announced just 4.5 months ago on Capital Markets Day. And we are seeing the fruits of that labor right now with that focus on performance discipline simplification.

極好的。謝謝你，奧斯華。我將回答第一個問題，然後我會來找你 Sinead 回答第二個問題。首先，也是關於您關於策略和我們所處位置的觀點，我們對我們所採取的持續道路以及我們在 4.5 個月前的資本市場日宣布的道路抱有真正的信念。我們現在正在看到這種努力的成果，重點是績效紀律的簡化。

If you look at what we said at the time, our focus was and continues to be growing the per share value. Clearly, that has multiple threats to it: one is the funnel, which I'll come back to in a moment; two is making sure that we continue to drive performance in the assets that we have, and you have seen now quarter after quarter, a steady drumbeat of steady performance; and then thirdly, we continue to exercise the discipline and simplification that allows us to right size our CapEx and reduce our OpEx so that we can unlock the full potential of the company.

如果你看看我們當時所說的話，我們的重點過去是、現在仍然是成長每股價值。顯然，這面臨多重威脅：一個是漏斗，我稍後會回到這個問題；另一個是漏斗。二是確保我們繼續推動我們擁有的資產的業績，現在你已經看到一個又一個季度，穩定業績的穩步鼓動；第三，我們繼續實行紀律和簡化，使我們能夠正確調整資本支出並減少營運支出，從而釋放公司的全部潛力。

From a portfolio perspective, we continue to be very confident with the run rate that we have. And what you see, for example, in LNG, the 20% to 30% that we expect to grow by 2030 represents around 11 million tons per annum of new equity capacity that's coming in, whether that's from Qatar or whether that's from LNG Canada or Nigeria, they are all important barrels into our portfolio.

從投資組合的角度來看，我們仍然對我們的運作率非常有信心。例如，在液化天然氣方面，我們預計到 2030 年將成長 20% 至 30%，這意味著每年新增約 1,100 萬噸權益產能，無論是來自卡達或來自加拿大液化天然氣公司或奈及利亞，它們都是我們投資組合中的重要組成部分。

On the Upstream side, we've had some, of course, important milestones with Vito ramping up, well now having just moved to Ingleside side so that's come to bring some new barrels. You're going to have Mero-2, Mero-3 and Mero-4 in Brazil, and so on and so forth. And that is [definitely] an important funnel that we're going to continue to liquidate over the coming months.

在上游方面，隨著 Vito 的發展，我們當然已經取得了一些重要的里程碑，現在剛剛搬到了 Ingleside 一側，因此帶來了一些新的桶。巴西將有 Mero-2、Mero-3 和 Mero-4，等等。這（絕對）是我們將在未來幾個月繼續清理的一個重要管道。

The one I will remind you of is north 500,000 barrels per day of new production expected to come by 2025 at a [breaky] price of just under $30. So definitely strong and we continue to believe that executing the strategy and the way we describe it is absolutely the right thing for us. Sinead?

我要提醒您的是，到 2025 年，預計每天新增 50 萬桶石油，價格將略低於 30 美元。絕對強大，我們仍然相信執行該策略以及我們描述它的方式對我們來說絕對是正確的事情。西妮德？

Thank you, Oswald. Indeed, in terms of the OpEx, so specifically, you're asking why it seems flat at the moment. Do we have confidence? What are the big buckets?

謝謝你，奧斯華。事實上，就營運支出而言，具體來說，您會問為什麼它目前看起來持平。我們有信心嗎？什麼是大桶？

So the way I would characterize it is, of course, it takes time. We've got a lot in the funnel at the moment, some of which you're seeing very much talked about in terms of the structural ones in the news. There's enough news article provided, it appeared. So we're very much looking at taking cost out in terms of the way we do business.

所以我的說法是，當然，這需要時間。目前，我們的漏斗中有很多內容，其中一些您在新聞中看到有關結構性內容的大量討論。看來提供了足夠的新聞文章。因此，我們非常希望透過開展業務的方式來降低成本。

And then secondly, of course, there's the other bucket, which is around divestments. And you've already seen us announce Pakistan, of course, now. You've seen [Toro] and there's many others as well coming through. So I'm pretty confident in terms of are we going to be able to deliver it. Yes, it takes time. You don't get it in a month or 2, Oswald. It will take the time to get this out and funnel through. And of course, we'll update you in Q4. Thank you.

其次，當然還有另一個方面，那就是撤資。當然，你現在已經看到我們宣布巴基斯坦了。你已經看過[托羅]，還有很多其他人也看過。所以我對我們是否能夠交付它非常有信心。是的，這需要時間。奧斯瓦爾德，你不會在一兩個月內得到它。將其弄清楚並進行漏斗需要時間。當然，我們會在第四季向您通報最新情況。謝謝。

Thanks, Sinead. And Oswald, thanks again for the questions.

謝謝，西妮德。奧斯瓦爾德，再次感謝您的提問。

Our next caller is Roger Read from Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個來電者是來自富國銀行的羅傑·里德。

I guess I'm curious, as we look out, there's been a lot of M&A on our side of the pond. So just wondering, as you're looking at it, not necessarily saying you have to participate but what you think of some of the opportunities that have occurred out there since some have been onshore some have been a little more offshore and whether or not any of that does make sense for Shell at this point.

我想我很好奇，當我們觀察時，我們這邊發生了很多併購。所以只是想知道，當你看到它時，不一定說你必須參與，而是你對已經出現的一些機會有何看法，因為有些是在陸上的，有些是在離岸的，以及是否有任何機會。目前，這對殼牌來說確實有意義。

Okay. Thanks for the question, Roger, and good morning to you. Of course, we've been keenly observing the transactions that have taken place. While I don't think I'm the best place to comment on those, I can tell you indeed how we think about them.

好的。謝謝你的提問，羅傑，早安。當然，我們一直在密切觀察已經發生的交易。雖然我認為我不是評論這些問題的最佳人選，但我確實可以告訴您我們如何看待它們。

As I mentioned in the previous question to -- that Oswald asked, we fundamentally believe that the strategy we have is absolutely the right one for us. And it's a balanced energy transition strategy. It's a strategy that continues to deeply believe in the role of gas and LNG. It's a strategy that continues to see an important tool for oil. And it's a strategy that's looking at leveraging our marketing and our trading capabilities to be able to drive the decarbonization journey. And so our value proposition, that theme that we brought out, the investment case through the energy transition, I think, plays out very nicely with the current portfolio that we have that we're very pleased with.

正如我在奧斯瓦爾德提出的上一個問題中提到的，我們從根本上相信我們的策略絕對適合我們。這是一個平衡的能源轉型策略。這項策略持續堅信天然氣和液化天然氣的角色。這一戰略繼續被視為石油的重要工具。這項策略旨在利用我們的行銷和交易能力來推動脫碳之旅。因此，我認為，我們的價值主張、我們提出的主題、透過能源轉型的投資案例，與我們目前擁有的投資組合非常吻合，我們對此感到非常滿意。

If we then look at how we want to be able to deploy capital, our preference right now is to continue to buy that very attractive asset base that we have and the free cash flow yield that is also a very healthy free cash flow yield and continue therefore to preferentially allocate our capital towards share buybacks, more so than going for big acquisitions. And from now to 2025, if we can unlock and when we will unlock the value of what we are, what we have committed to, you will see a significant amount of value being generated, to the tune of 10% free cash flow per share growth year after year between now and 2025 and then absolute free cash flow growth between now and 2030 or 6% per annum.

如果我們然後看看我們希望如何部署資本，我們現在的首選是繼續購買我們擁有的非常有吸引力的資產基礎和自由現金流收益率，這也是一個非常健康的自由現金流收益率，並繼續購買因此，優先將我們的資金分配給股票回購，而不是進行大型收購。從現在到 2025 年，如果我們能夠釋放以及何時釋放我們的價值、我們所承諾的價值，您將看到大量價值正在產生，每股自由現金流達到 10%從現在到2025 年，年復一年年增長，然後從現在到2030 年，絕對自由現金流增長，即每年6%。

So that strategy for us continues to be the right one and continues to be, in our view, the one that is most accretive for our shareholders without going for a big inorganic that could be diluted further. I hope that addresses your question, Roger. Thank you for it.

因此，這項策略對我們來說仍然是正確的策略，並且在我們看來，仍然是對我們的股東最有增值的策略，而無需尋求可能進一步稀釋的大型無機企業。我希望這能解決你的問題，羅傑。謝謝你。

Our next caller is Biraj Borkhataria from RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一位來電者是來自 RBC 資本市場的 Biraj Borkhataria。

The first one is on the LNG business. You cited that you sort of expect Prelude to come on towards the back end of the fourth quarter. And then I guess you've exercised some caution on Egypt. I was wondering, typically, you walk into the winter with net length in your portfolio. Are you able to optimize and take advantage of volatility, which is typically higher? I was wondering how you think you'll -- do you have the net length in the portfolio for the next couple of quarters? Do you think you have the capacity to be able to optimize as you see fit?

第一個是液化天然氣業務。您提到您預計前奏曲會在第四季末出現。然後我想你對埃及採取了一些謹慎的態度。我想知道，通常情況下，你的作品集中會帶著淨多頭步入冬天。您是否能夠優化並利用通常較高的波動性？我想知道你認為你會如何——你有未來幾季投資組合的淨長度嗎？您認為您有能力以您認為合適的方式進行最佳化嗎？

And then the second question is on -- project specific on LNG Canada. This is your largest capital project in the portfolio. And if you look at some of the press reports, it seems like everything is gearing up to sort of start up in maybe late 2024. So can you confirm when you expect that project to start up? And if you're not willing to commit to a year or a timeline, I was wondering where you see the biggest areas of LNG.

然後第二個問題是關於加拿大液化天然氣計畫的具體問題。這是您投資組合中最大的資本項目。如果你看一些新聞報道，似乎一切都在為 2024 年底啟動做好準備。那麼你能確認一下你預計該計畫何時啟動嗎？如果您不願意承諾一年或時間表，我想知道您在哪裡看到液化天然氣最大的領域。

Super. Let me take the second question and then go to you, Sinead, for the first one. LNG Canada, we have indeed been pleased with the progress that has been made. You will have seen early October when TCE, the pipeline developer, and Coastal GasLink, the pipeline itself has, in essence, completed the golden well, the final well on that pipeline and since then have also hydro-tested the pipeline successfully. So very pleased with that because, as you know, that was very much on our watch.

極好的。讓我回答第二個問題，然後再問你，西尼德，第一個問題。加拿大液化天然氣公司，我們確實對所取得的進展感到高興。您將在 10 月初看到，管道開發商 TCE 和管道本身 Coastal GasLink 實質上已經完成了黃金井，即管道上的最後一口井，並從那時起也成功對管道進行了水壓測試。對此非常滿意，因為如您所知，這在我們的監督下。

The second bit then is more facilities at site. The joint venture announced not too long ago that they had just passed the 85% completion threshold. And so that all continues to go according to plan. We're not announcing anything new. We continue to say today that we expect to have a start-up by the middle of this decade. What could go wrong? I mean typically teething issues in the start-up of the plant, but that is what we are very focused on. What we have said to the joint venture is our focus is not just on the first cargo and when it starts up; it's on when can we get to the 100 cargo because that will show us the stability of the overall plant. And that's what the team is focused on. And so, so far, we've seen good quality or the joint venture has seen good quality overall in the materials that we have received. The equipment was received. And so far, the progress has been as we would have hoped for. Sinead?

第二點是現場更多的設施。該合資公司不久前宣布，他們剛剛通過了 85% 的完工門檻。這樣一切都會繼續照計畫進行。我們不會宣布任何新內容。今天我們仍然表示，我們預計到本十年中期將成立一家新創公司。可能會出什麼問題？我的意思是，通常在工廠啟動過程中會遇到一些初期問題，但這正是我們非常關注的問題。我們對合資企業所說的是，我們的重點不僅僅是第一批貨物及其啟動時間；我們還關注第一批貨物及其啟動時間。問題是我們什麼時候能達到 100 批貨物，因為這將向我們展示整個工廠的穩定性。這就是團隊關注的重點。因此，到目前為止，我們已經看到了良好的質量，或者合資企業在我們收到的材料中整體上看到了良好的質量。設備已收到。到目前為止，進展正如我們所希望的那樣。西妮德？

Yes. Thank you, Biraj. Indeed, in terms of our LNG portfolio, of course, this quarter, we saw some 6.9% in terms of liquefaction volumes. And actually, when you look at the range, you rightly say it's between 6.7% and 7.3%. So it's -- we're sitting very well across that range. And that includes, as you say, both Prelude and also our anticipated impact with respect to Egypt as well. So according to that, that's all baked into where we're going to.

是的。謝謝你，比拉傑。事實上，就我們的液化天然氣投資組合而言，當然，本季我們的液化量約為 6.9%。事實上，當你查看這個範圍時，你正確地說它在 6.7% 到 7.3% 之間。所以，我們在這個範圍內的表現非常好。正如您所說，這包括前奏以及我們對埃及的預期影響。因此，根據這一點，這一切都融入了我們要去的地方。

You can see this quarter, we were able to access, of course, third-party volumes as well and be able to take opportunities in the market and actually very good results from our Integrated Gas business. We expect, of course, going into the Northern Hemisphere winter to not only have those equity volumes, but also to have the third-party volumes as well as what we can do with those, whether locked up or not. So yes, we do expect to be able to the quarter very well as well.

您可以看到本季度，我們當然也能夠獲得第三方銷量，並能夠抓住市場機會，實際上我們的綜合天然氣業務取得了非常好的業績。當然，我們預計，進入北半球冬季，不僅會有這些股權數量，還會有第三方數量以及我們可以用這些數量做什麼，無論是否鎖定。所以，是的，我們確實希望本季也能表現出色。

Thanks, Sinead. Thanks again, Biraj.

謝謝，西妮德。再次感謝，比拉吉。

Our next caller is Michele Della Vigna from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個來電者是來自高盛的 Michele Della Vigna。

Two questions, if I may. The first one I wanted to ask is about working capital management. If I regress the Shell results over the past few years, with a $15 increase end of quarter to end of quarter in the oil price, I would have had a working capital build between -- somewhere between $4 billion and $7 billion. Instead, this quarter, you actually managed to release operating working capital. I was wondering if something has actually changed in the way you manage it in order to preserve capital at times when prices have an extreme spike in the quarter.

如果可以的話，有兩個問題。我想問的第一個問題是關於營運資金管理。如果我對殼牌過去幾年的業績進行回歸，油價每季末上漲 15 美元，我的營運資金就會增加到 40 億美元到 70 億美元之間。相反，本季度，您實際上成功釋放了營運營運資金。我想知道您的管理方式是否確實發生了變化，以便在本季價格大幅上漲時保留資本。

And then secondly, I was just wondering if you could perhaps give us a quick run-through for Prelude in terms of what you've been able to fix in this shutdown, what probably still remains to be fixed in the future and where you think the long-term uptime could be on the project after all of the work that you've done in the last few months.

其次，我只是想知道您是否可以給我們快速介紹一下 Prelude，了解您在這次關閉中能夠修復的內容、將來可能仍需要修復的內容以及您認為的內容在過去幾個月完成所有工作之後，專案的長期正常運作時間可能會出現。

Michele, thank you for those 2 questions. Let me start with the Prelude one, and then I'll give Sinead the opportunity to talk about some of the brilliant tour that she and her team are doing on working capital management.

米歇爾，謝謝你提出這兩個問題。讓我從前奏開始，然後我將給西尼德一個機會來談論她和她的團隊在營運資本管理方面所做的一些精彩之旅。

On Prelude, just a sort of reminder. So we went into this turnaround having had the best one on Prelude, over 100 days of steady production. We were running north of 95%. So very pleased with the fact that we are now being able to really understand the operating envelope within which that facility runs. This is the first major turnaround that we have undertaken, of course, partly delayed because of the COVID event. So this really gave us the opportunity to be able to liquidate a number of issues, in particular around safety and reliability, but also gave us the opportunity to go into discovery scope, which allowed us to learn a bit more about how the equipment has responded. Very pleased with how the team has been responding. Of course, it's always tough to do the first of these major turnarounds. We learned that on other major assets. But the team has done well. A lot of the planned work has been worked through and then there was some discovery scope in certain parts of the facility that they have now -- that they are now focused on.

在 Prelude 中，只是一種提醒。因此，我們在 Prelude 上取得了最好的成績，經過 100 多天的穩定製作，進入了這次轉變。我們已經跑到 95% 以上了。我們現在能夠真正了解該設施運作的操作範圍，對此我們感到非常高興。這是我們進行的第一次重大轉變，當然，由於新冠疫情，部分時間被推遲了。因此，這確實使我們有機會解決許多問題，特別是在安全性和可靠性方面，但也使我們有機會進入發現範圍，這使我們能夠更多地了解設備如何響應。對團隊的回應非常滿意。當然，完成這些重大轉變中的第一個總是很困難的。我們在其他主要資產上了解到了這一點。但球隊已經做得很好了。許多計劃的工作已經完成，然後在他們現在擁有的設施的某些部分有一些發現範圍——他們現在正在關注這些部分。

In terms of how we expect to come out of this turnaround, look, at the end of the day, a lot of the improvements were meant to be able to establish more reliable and continued performance that we saw going into the turnaround and do it much more structurally. So I have confidence that we will continue to improve. But this won't be a journey of one single turnaround. This is a journey of multiple years to get the asset to continue to do what we expect it to do, though I have high confidence that on the back of what we have seen so far that we are going to get there soon. Sinead?

就我們期望如何擺脫這一轉變而言，歸根結底，許多改進都是為了能夠建立更可靠和持續的性能，我們在轉變中看到了這一點並做了很多工作更具結構性。所以我有信心我們會不斷進步。但這不會是轉變的旅程。這是一個多年的旅程，讓資產繼續發揮我們的預期作用，儘管我很有信心，根據我們迄今為止所看到的情況，我們很快就會實現這一目標。西妮德？

Sure. Thanks, Michele. Great question. You may remember last year, we had certainly some large flows of working capital. And I spent a lot of time trying to explain what occurred around those. That's certainly aligns with our focus. There are many things last year, of course, that have occurred. There was a huge amount of volatility that came into the market post, of course, the war with respect to Ukraine. But it also allowed us to focus very carefully on what we were doing. And there was a range of activities that took place in that nothing particularly difficult. It's just the usual things of making sure that you're doing the right trades on the same exchange rather than different exchanges. The collateral, et cetera, can be a bit more focused. So just the intelligent things that you should be doing around managing your working capital. But that's been very, very much focused. And I would say that everyone in the organization looks to that. Of course, you have volatility.

當然。謝謝，米歇爾。很好的問題。你可能還記得去年，我們確實有大量的營運資金流動。我花了很多時間試圖解釋圍繞這些發生的事情。這當然符合我們的重點。當然，去年發生了很多事。當然，在烏克蘭戰爭之後，市場出現了巨大的波動。但這也讓我們能夠非常仔細地專注於我們正在做的事情。進行了一系列活動，但沒有什麼特別困難的。這只是確保您在同一交易所而不是不同交易所進行正確交易的常見事情。抵押品等可以更集中一些。因此，您應該圍繞管理營運資金做一些明智的事情。但這是非常非常集中的。我想說的是，組織中的每個人都期待這一點。當然，你有波動性。

Beyond that, this quarter, because I see your point exactly on I think you said $47 billion of a build over the period or over a couple of quarters. What we saw, of course, was $0.4 billion of an inflow. And some of that, of course, will go out again next quarter. But what really happened there? What we saw fundamentally on that was -- Slide 8 is a good one to have a look at, by the way, in the pack. What it shows you there is, of course, with prices going up, you have the outflow in terms of both price and volume in terms of inventory. But beyond that, that was more than offset by both our AR and our AP. So Michele, if you have a look at it, what you see is, in effect, what occurred was that in terms of our AP, we started building in terms of middle distillate as coming into what we think we need for the next quarter.

除此之外，這個季度，因為我完全明白你的觀點，我認為你說在此期間或幾季內建造 470 億美元。當然，我們看到的是 4 億美元的資金流入。當然，其中一些將在下個季度再次推出。但那裡到底發生了什麼事？順便說一下，我們從根本上看到的是——幻燈片 8 是一張很好的幻燈片，值得一看。當然，它向您展示的是，隨著價格上漲，庫存的價格和數量都會流出。但除此之外，我們的 AR 和 AP 都足以抵消這項影響。所以，米歇爾，如果你看一下，你會看到，實際上，就我們的 AP 而言，我們開始建立中間餾分油，以達到我們認為下一季所需的水平。

In terms of AR, there's 2 things that's occurred there. We have some prepays coming in from some of our B2B businesses. And you do remember that from last year as well. And then secondly, of course, with the divestment of [Toro], which is reaching its conclusion, of course, there's an awful lot of collections that come in alongside that. So combined that meant we're in a position with 0.4 inflow, which is great to see, but a small amount of that will go out again next quarter. Thank you.

就 AR 而言，發生了兩件事。我們的一些 B2B 業務收到了一些預付款。你也確實記得去年的事。其次，當然，隨著 [Toro] 的撤資，該撤資即將結束，當然，隨之而來的是大量的收藏品。因此，這意味著我們的流入量為 0.4，這很高興看到，但其中一小部分將在下個季度再次流出。謝謝。

Thanks, Sinead, and thank you for the question as well, Michele.

謝謝，西尼德，也謝謝你提出的問題，米歇爾。

Our next caller is Giacomo Romeo from Jefferies.

我們的下一個來電者是傑富瑞集團 (Jefferies) 的賈科莫·羅密歐 (Giacomo Romeo)。

Yes. You mentioned in your prepared remarks that divestment is a priority focus for Singapore. Just thinking here in terms of where -- what that -- where that leaves you in terms of your overall strategy for the Downstream and what's your view with regards to your European assets.

是的。您在準備好的演講中提到，撤資是新加坡的優先重點。只是考慮一下您的下游整體策略以及您對歐洲資產的看法。

Second question on buyback. At the CMD, you gave us a helpful floor for buybacks in the second half of the year. Just wondering if you are willing to provide a floor for as we move into -- as we start to look into -- move into 2024. So sort of a floor for '24 or first half of 2024.

第二個問題，關於回購。在 CMD，您為我們下半年的回購提供了有用的底線。只是想知道，當我們進入 - 當我們開始研究 - 進入 2024 年時，您是否願意提供一個下限。因此，可以為 24 或 2024 年上半年提供一個下限。

Okay. You can start with the buyback question. I'll take the second one.

好的。你可以從回購問題開始。我要拿第二個。

Indeed. So Giacomo, it's going to be a short answer on that one. I think what you can predict is we will do what we said, which is very much around looking to a 30% to 40% distribution around CFFO. And of course, that means you could be at different parts of the range. You'll hear -- see me and the team very much focused around value.

的確。賈科莫，這將是對此問題的簡短回答。我認為你可以預測的是我們會按照我們所說的去做，這很大程度上是圍繞著 CFFO 周圍 30% 到 40% 的分配。當然，這意味著您可能處於該範圍的不同部分。你會聽到——看到我和團隊非常關注價值。

So you'll see us preferentially allocating to share buybacks, which is exactly what we did this quarter as well, of course. But in terms of are we going to go further to give some forward looks on this. We're not. We'll stick within the framework that we provided so far. Thank you.

因此，您會看到我們優先分配股票回購，當然，這也正是我們本季所做的。但就我們是否會進一步對此進行一些前瞻性展望而言。不是。我們將堅持迄今為止所提供的框架。謝謝。

Thanks, Sinead. And let me take the first question, Giacomo, around where does that leave us. Maybe to focus specifically on Chemicals and Products rather than more broadly across our Downstream businesses. On Chemicals and Products, what we said at Capital Markets Day is that if you look across our asset base, we have $28 billion of capital employed there. Our #1 priority is getting Shell Polymers Monaca up and running. That's around half of the capital employed. And we're very much focused on doing that. And we hope to see the steady ramp-up through the beginning of next year of that facility.

謝謝，西妮德。賈科莫，讓我回答第一個問題，這會對我們造成什麼影響。也許會專門關注化學品和產品，而不是更廣泛地關注我們的下游業務。關於化學品和產品，我們在資本市場日所說的是，如果你縱觀我們的資產基礎，我們在那裡使用了 280 億美元的資本。我們的首要任務是讓殼牌聚合物 Monaca 啟動並運行。這大約是所用資本的一半。我們非常專注於這樣做。我們希望看到該設施在明年年初穩步成長。

Then we talked about some real strength in our business, for example, the North Americas assets, the Chinese assets, and that we continue to drive and drive operational performance and continuous improvement. We then highlighted both the Singapore energy and chemical park as well as our European energy and chemical parks for review. As Sinead said both in the video and just now, we have taken a decision to preferentially look at the divestment route, and we are going through that process.

然後我們談到了我們業務中的一些真正的優勢，例如北美資產、中國資產，以及我們不斷推動和推動營運績效和持續改進。然後，我們重點介紹了新加坡能源和化學園區以及歐洲能源和化學園區以供審查。正如西尼德在影片中和剛才所說的那樣，我們已經決定優先考慮撤資路線，我們正在經歷這個過程。

For the European one, we continue to review it. We still believe that our energy and chemical parks give us a real opportunity to be able to use that infrastructure, the terminals, the pipelines and the equipment itself as an opportunity to be able to establish some of our low carbon solutions options. To give you an example. In the Netherlands, we are building facilities there like Holland Hydrogen I, a green hydrogen facility that will be linked into our energy and chemical park in the Netherlands, and we're also building a HEFA plant or a bio plant there as well. So leveraging that real estate to be able to create value as we look to help our customers decarbonize as a key part of that strategy.

對於歐洲的，我們繼續審查。我們仍然相信，我們的能源和化學園區為我們提供了真正的機會，能夠利用基礎設施、碼頭、管道和設備本身，作為建立一些低碳解決方案的機會。給你舉個例子。在荷蘭，我們正在建造 Holland Hydrogen I 等設施，這是一個綠色氫設施，將連接到我們在荷蘭的能源和化學園區，我們也在那裡建造 HEFA 工廠或生物工廠。因此，利用這些房地產能夠創造價值，因為我們希望幫助客戶脫碳，作為該策略的關鍵部分。

Long story short, we continue to do what we believe is going to allow us to improve the returns of that business and to create the sustainable delivery of the earnings and the cash that we expect of it. And we've guided, as you will have seen in Capital Markets Day, to roughly a flat capital employed from now to end of the year, roughly $3 billion per annum invested in these energy and chemical parks and looking to create a $3 billion to $4 billion of value add to them. So that continues to be very much our plan.

長話短說，我們將繼續做我們認為能夠提高該業務回報並創造我們期望的可持續盈利和現金的事情。正如您在資本市場日看到的那樣，從現在到年底，我們的資本使用大致持平，每年向這些能源和化學園區投資約 30 億美元，並希望創造 30 億美元為它們增加了40 億美元的價值。所以這仍然是我們的計劃。

Thanks for the question, Giacomo.

謝謝你的提問，賈科莫。

Our next caller is Peter Low from Redburn Atlantic.

我們的下一個來電者是來自 Redburn Atlantic 的 Peter Low。

The first was just on the lower CapEx range. I think you suggested in the prepared remarks that, that was because some investments perhaps had met your return criteria. Can you give any examples or perhaps some color as to what areas of the business that reduction has come in?

第一個是在較低的資本支出範圍內。我認為您在準備好的評論中表示，那是因為某些投資可能符合您的回報標準。您能否舉出一些例子或說明哪些業務領域出現了縮減？

And then the second was actually just a follow-up on Shell Polymers Monaca. You talked in the past about it contributing $1 billion to $1.5 billion of EBITDA once it is fully ramped up. Can you deliver that in the current margin environment once you are on top, of course? Or would it require a recovery in industry margins as well?

第二個其實只是殼牌聚合物 Monaca 的後續產品。您過去曾談到，一旦全面啟動，它將貢獻 10 億至 15 億美元的 EBITDA。當然，一旦你處於領先地位，你能在當前的利潤環境中實現這一目標嗎？或者是否也需要產業利潤率的復甦？

Okay. Let me take the second one first and then hand over to Sinead. On Shell Polymers Monaca, the $1 billion to $1.5 billion of EBITDA continues to be what we guide for. But we guide for it on the basis of reference prices, which we have indicated, and we provided those in Capital Markets Day. Clearly, the market that you see at the moment is being punished, the chemicals markets. We have an unprecedented wave of new supply that came over the past 3 years, meaning that the indicative chemical margins are beaten up. The way to think about $1 billion to $1.5 billion is think about it around the reference price that we indicated in the Capital Markets Day pack. Sinead?

好的。讓我先拿第二個，然後交給西妮德。對於殼牌聚合物莫納卡公司，我們的目標仍然是 10 億至 15 億美元的 EBITDA。但我們根據參考價格進行指導，我們已經表明了這一點，並且我們在資本市場日提供了這些參考價格。顯然，你現在看到的化學品市場正在受到懲罰。過去三年來，我們出現了前所未有的新供應浪潮，這意味著化學製品的指示性利潤率受到了打擊。考慮 10 億至 15 億美元的方法是圍繞我們在資本市場日包中指出的參考價格來考慮。西妮德？

Yes. And thank you, Peter. Indeed, we brought down our CapEx range. As you know, we started with 23 to 27. We brought it down to 26. The last one is the upper limit on 25 now. What you're effectively seeing is just really great discipline and scrutiny across the portfolio. We're basically ensuring that we're set up well for what we had promised for '24 and '25. So this is just putting our words into action bringing for this forward as rapidly as possible across the whole organization. So what are we really doing? It's really about scrutiny, as you say, very much focused on where the numbers make sense for us and where we could truly differentiate.

是的。謝謝你，彼得。事實上，我們降低了資本支出範圍。大家知道，我們一開始是23到27。後來我們把它降到了26。最後一個是現在25的上限。您實際上看到的是整個投資組合中非常嚴格的紀律和審查。我們基本上確保我們為 24 和 25 年的承諾做好了準備。因此，這只是將我們的承諾付諸行動，在整個組織中盡快推動這項進程。那我們到底在做什麼呢？正如你所說，這實際上是關於審查，非常關注數字對我們有意義的地方以及我們可以真正差異化的地方。

So what is that -- where does that play do? Integrated Gas and Upstream, of course, we're still continuing to spend, as you would expect. We're seeing us taking smaller mine site of Chemicals and Products. Per your point, well, difficult industry at the moment. That's logical given the market conditions. We're also taking some mines in terms of marketing because we've invested so much so far that they're not actually beginning to recoup the benefit, and that's what we want to focus on. And finally, of course, we're taking a little bit of eyes on the renewable side. And that's simply just market conditions as you can imagine. I speak plenty of that in the press recently. So thank you for your question.

那麼那是什麼──那場戲在哪裡發揮作用呢？當然，正如您所期望的，綜合天然氣和上游，我們仍在繼續支出。我們看到我們正在佔領較小的化學物質和產品礦區。根據你的觀點，目前這個行業很困難。考慮到市場條件，這是合乎邏輯的。我們在行銷方面也採取了一些措施，因為到目前為止我們投入了太多，以至於他們實際上並沒有開始收回收益，而這正是我們想要關注的。最後，當然，我們也會關注再生能源方面。這只是你可以想像的市場狀況。我最近在媒體上說了很多這樣的話。謝謝你的提問。

Thanks, Sinead. And Peter, thank you for the question.

謝謝，西妮德。彼得，謝謝你的提問。

Our next caller is Lydia Rainforth from Barclays.

我們的下一個來電者是來自巴克萊銀行的莉迪亞·雷恩福斯 (Lydia Rainforth)。

Two questions if I could. The -- actually just following up on the CapEx side, Sinead. The $2 billion range that you still have, there's only 8 weeks left. So can you just review what the battles are in that? And I know you've also invested the buyback, but basically you could have done more on CapEx and higher buyback even though you haven't. So just how you think of that.

如果可以的話，有兩個問題。實際上只是在資本支出方面跟進，Sinead。你還有 20 億美元的資金，只剩下 8 週了。那麼您能簡單回顧一下其中的戰鬥嗎？我知道你也投資了回購，但基本上你可以在資本支出和更高的回購上做更多的事情，即使你沒有。那你是怎麼想的呢？

And then secondly, and relative to the CMD, are things going exactly as planned? Or as now it happens so things are slower than you like and some things, I'm just wondering if you can give us a sense of you've talked a little bit about cost, but just overall, how you think progress is in that first sprint.

其次，相對於 CMD，事情是否完全按照計劃進行？或者就像現在發生​​的那樣，事情比你想要的要慢，有些事情，我只是想知道你是否能讓我們感覺到你已經談到了一些關於成本的問題，但總的來說，你認為進展如何第一個衝刺。

Thanks, Lydia. Do you want to take the first one? I can take the second one.

謝謝，莉迪亞。你想拿第一個嗎？我可以拿第二個。

Yes, in terms of the CapEx. Thank you for -- Lydia, I know it feels weird there's only 8 weeks left at the end of the day. Where that came from in terms of the range, it's just -- there's really nothing too exciting about it. It's just simply put, there are a number of payments that will come out between now and year-end depending on milestones. So things related to LNG Canada, things related to Qatar, et cetera. And those can fall one week, plus or minus, into this quarter or into next quarter. And that's what really throws us a little bit. Hence, we give the range as it is. But I assure you there's a lot of discipline to make sure we're only spending that, that gives us the returns we need. Thank you.

是的，就資本支出而言。謝謝你——莉迪亞，我知道最後只剩下 8 週的時間了，這感覺很奇怪。從範圍來看，它只是——真的沒有什麼太令人興奮的。簡而言之，根據里程碑，從現在到年底將支付許多款項。與加拿大液化天然氣公司有關的事情、與卡達有關的事情等等。這些可能會在本季或下季的一周（前後）內發生。這才是真正讓我們有點困惑的地方。因此，我們按原樣給出範圍。但我向你保證，我們有很多紀律來確保我們只花這筆錢，從而為我們帶來我們需要的回報。謝謝。

And on the progress we're seeing, Lydia. I mean, firstly, at a high level, maybe to say I am very pleased with the progress that we are making not just since Capital Markets Day, but it's been a strong, steady drumbeat of performance for a while now. So the organization is responding and they're responding well. And I think we've been able to, hopefully you will see that, to do what we said we were going to do. But let's break it down into 3 elements that we have underpinned our first sprint by performance, discipline and simplification.

關於我們所看到的進展，莉迪亞。我的意思是，首先，在高水準上，也許我對我們自資本市場日以來的進展感到非常滿意，而且一段時間以來一直表現強勁、穩定。因此，該組織正在做出回應，而且他們的回應也很好。我認為我們已經能夠做到我們說過要做的事情，希望你們會看到這一點。但讓我們將其分解為三個要素，我們透過表現、紀律和簡化來支撐我們的第一個衝刺。

On the performance side, whether it's operational performance or financial performance, you're seeing us hopefully become more predictable and a bit more consistent in the way we're delivering, and we are very consciously going after that. And the businesses are really focusing on just getting on top of the day to day, just getting the basics right every single day.

在績效方面，無論是營運績效還是財務績效，您都希望我們的交付方式變得更加可預測，並且更加一致，我們正在非常有意識地追求這一點。企業真正專注於掌控日常事務，每天做好基礎工作。

On the project side, we had some big wins on projects like Timi coming on board; Vito being ramped up at the pace that we would have hoped for, if not a bit faster; and other projects in the funnel moving. So that muscle of performance, I'll never tell you I'm fully satisfied because it takes a long, long time to be able to get into the space we want to get to. But ultimately, we need to keep improving, and that's what we see right now. So I still see more running room there, but very proud of how far we've gotten.

在專案方面，我們在 Timi 等專案上取得了一些重大勝利； Vito 的提升速度符合我們的預期，甚至快一點；以及其他項目在漏斗中移動。因此，我永遠不會告訴你我完全滿意這種表現力，因為它需要很長很長的時間才能進入我們想要達到的空間。但最終，我們需要不斷改進，這就是我們現在所看到的。因此，我仍然認為那裡還有更多的運行空間，但對我們已經取得的進展感到非常自豪。

On discipline, again, Sinead will have told the story now a couple of times. We started with a belief that we can move into the range of 22 to 25 in 2024 and 2025. The fact we have now fast tracked that by a year, I think, speaks to how quickly the organization has responded to that real discipline and focus that we wanted to impose and at the same time, the word Sinead used is the right one, much deeper scrutiny of many of these opportunities coming our way.

關於紀律，西尼德現在已經把這個故事講了好幾次了。我們一開始的信念是，我們可以在2024 年和2025 年達到22 到25 的範圍。我認為，我們現在已經在一年內快速實現這一目標，這說明了該組織對真正的紀律和重點做出反應的速度有多快我們想要強加這一點，同時，西尼德使用的這個詞是正確的，對我們即將到來的許多機會進行了更深入的審查。

That also, by the way, applies to OpEx. And again, I won't repeat Sinead's point, but this is going to be a staggered process with divestments likely to be the more material contributor in the short term. And then over time, some of the organizational choices, some of the more focused choices around portfolios will all add up to supporting us in that space.

順便說一句，這也適用於營運支出。再說一次，我不會重複西尼德的觀點，但這將是一個交錯的過程，撤資可能會在短期內成為更重要的貢獻者。隨著時間的推移，一些組織選擇、一些圍繞投資組合的更集中的選擇都將在該領域為我們提供支持。

And that finally plays the Simplification. And we're trying to do a lot on that front. We've talked in the past about organizational application at the Executive Committee. We've now simplified the level -- the next level under that. Those leaders look how they can simplify how we continue to drive singular business outcomes and align the organization around those and how we can just take away a huge amount of churn that's coming into the system so that we can become faster and more agile in the way we make decisions and how we execute. And multiple small examples that I have seen in the organization around that, the time it's taking us to turn around certain material. Our business plan that we are in the process of reviewing used to take us a lot longer. We're much clearer. We're sure on what we need to do. And there are many stories like that, that are being now -- that are coming up in the organization, which gives me a huge amount of confidence that we're on the right track.

這最終發揮了簡化作用。我們正在努力在這方面做很多事情。我們過去曾討論過執行委員會的組織應用。我們現在已經簡化了這個級別——下一個級別。這些領導者著眼於如何簡化我們如何繼續推動單一業務成果並使組織圍繞這些成果進行調整，以及我們如何消除進入系統的大量流失，以便我們能夠變得更快、更敏捷我們做出決定以及如何執行。我在組織中看到了多個小例子，我們需要花時間來扭轉某些材料。我們正在審查的業務計劃過去需要花費更長的時間。我們更清楚了。我們確信我們需要做什麼。現在有許多類似的故事正在組織中出現，這給了我很大的信心，我們正走在正確的軌道上。

Thanks for the question, Lydia.

謝謝你的提問，莉迪亞。

Our next caller is Irene Himona from Societe Generale.

我們的下一個來電者是法國興業銀行的艾琳希莫納 (Irene Himona)。

My first question is go back to the experience with Monaca and indeed with Prelude. It seems that large project developments remain somewhat challenging, and we've seen that elsewhere in the industry. What lessons do you draw from these as you look to complete other large projects like LNG Canada, which you referred to, to improve the delivery and reliability of large-scale projects?

我的第一個問題是回到 Monaca 以及 Prelude 的經歷。大型專案的開發似乎仍然具有一定的挑戰性，我們在行業其他地方也看到了這一點。當您希望完成其他大型專案（例如您提到的加拿大液化天然氣公司）以提高大型專案的交付和可靠性時，您從中學到了哪些教訓？

My second question, in light of what is unraveling in the offshore wind industry, I wonder if you can remind us of how you view the returns and indeed the attractiveness of that business Europe versus the U.S. perhaps. I recall saying in the past that at least in Europe or Germany, perhaps that industry was looking quite attractive.

我的第二個問題，鑑於離岸風電行業正在出現的問題，我想知道您是否可以提醒我們您如何看待歐洲與美國該業務的回報以及吸引力。我記得過去我說過，至少在歐洲或德國，也許這個行業看起來相當有吸引力。

Thank you very much. I'll take the first one, if you want to answer the second one, Sinead. You mentioned there large projects and the complexity. I think it's a fair challenge there at the moment, Irene.

非常感謝。如果你想回答第二個問題，我會選擇第一個，Sinead。您提到了大型專案和複雜性。我認為目前這是一個公平的挑戰，艾琳。

I think -- and if you look back, say, 20 years, what we have progressively learned is while many of these projects ultimately do work, the challenge is the cumulative risk that you take on when you build these mega projects. And these challenges come whether it's from technical issues, supply chain challenges, execution capabilities and so on and so forth. And you are putting significant amounts of capital usually concentrated in one location, and that has its own impact on the inflationary environment. It creates the delays, the bottlenecks within the country and the broader system. And so we've learned those lessons.

我認為，如果你回顧過去，比如說 20 年，我們逐漸了解到的是，雖然其中許多專案最終發揮了作用，但挑戰在於你在建立這些大型專案時所承擔的累積風險。這些挑戰來自技術問題、供應鏈挑戰、執行能力等等。而且你將大量資本通常集中在一個地方，這對通貨膨脹環境有其自身的影響。它造成了國內和更廣泛系統內的延誤和瓶頸。所以我們已經吸取了這些教訓。

And what you see is our portfolio going forward continues, of course, to have large projects, but we are trying as much as possible to go back to basics around where can we design one and then build a few. Where can we modularize? So instead of building a significantly large facility, can we build 2 or 3 smaller facilities that allow us to be able to generate cash faster, that means that the execution risk is lower compared to the larger infrastructure and that allow us, for example, in the case of Upstream, to derisk the subsurface or we invest in the next tranche of growth.

你看到的是，我們的投資組合繼續前進，當然，會有大型項目，但我們正在盡可能地嘗試回到基礎知識，圍繞我們可以在哪裡設計一個然後建造一些項目。我們可以在哪裡進行模組化？因此，我們可以不建造一個非常大的設施，而是建造2 或3 個較小的設施，使我們能夠更快地產生現金，這意味著與較大的基礎設施相比，執行風險較低，並且允許我們，例如，就上游而言，為了消除地下風險，或者我們投資於下一輪成長。

Those are some of the things we've done. How do those loans then apply? Take a project like Vito. Vito came off the back of some of the learnings, specifically Appomattox and the like, big projects, which we're very pleased to have in the portfolio. But we said, what can we do differently in Vito? And what we did was we took a much simpler hull. We're very selective around what we put on the facility side. And then we are seeing today the fruits of that labor.

這些是我們所做的一些事情。那麼這些貸款要如何申請呢？以 Vito 這樣的專案為例。 Vito 總結了一些經驗，特別是 Appomattox 等大型項目，我們很高興將其納入產品組合中。但我們說，我們可以在維托做些什麼不同的事情呢？我們所做的是採用了一個更簡單的船體。我們對設施的投入非常挑剔。今天我們看到了這項勞動的成果。

On the back of Vito, we have now developed Whale, which is a 99% replica of the hull and some 80-plus percent replica of the top side and something which has moved very smoothly. It's already now in Ingleside, Texas, ready to be floated out of the location. And we will continue to look at that replication strategy, more modular, more digestible, things which allow us to hopefully achieve low capital intensity and be able to move at a faster pace than maybe traditionally we could have with the much larger projects. But we live and learn, and we'll continue to develop those -- and we'll continue to develop and deepen those learnings, of course, in the coming years. Sinead?

在 Vito 的背面，我們現在開發了 Whale，它是 99% 的船體複製品，80% 以上的頂部複製品，而且移動起來非常順暢。它現在已經位於德克薩斯州英格爾塞德，準備好被運出該地點。我們將繼續研究複製策略，更模組化、更易於理解，這些策略使我們有望實現較低的資本密集度，並能夠以比傳統上更大的專案更快的速度前進。但我們生活和學習，我們將繼續發展這些——當然，在未來幾年，我們將繼續發展和深化這些學習。西妮德？

Yes. Thank you. And thank you, Wael. Indeed, when we think about our renewables portfolio, of course, we're very much looking for integration. That's really been the focus. I hope that's come through. For us, it's about making sure that we actually have the optionality to be able to market the electrons and support our own portfolio. So it lies trading to be the spider in the web, in effect, to be able to go in either direction to the market or to our owned assets.

是的。謝謝。謝謝你，瓦爾。事實上，當我們考慮我們的再生能源投資組合時，我們當然非常尋求整合。這確實是焦點。我希望這一切能夠實現。對我們來說，這是為了確保我們實際上擁有能夠銷售電子產品並支持我們自己的產品組合的選擇權。因此，交易實際上就是網路中的蜘蛛，能夠進入市場或進入我們擁有的資產。

So in the same way we look at offshore wind very similarly. We've had many opportunities throughout in terms of integration. If I take a step back for a moment and think about things like Australian projects, which is not offshore wind, but it's more renewable assets ERM, this was a business that we actually bought in Australia about 4 years ago, I believe. And what we saw there was the ability to have both renewables assets trading business and customers. It allowed us to be able to flow through those molecules or electrons and be able to decide where we put them. That's been incredibly profitable for us, actually very cash positive at the moment. And actually, the payback is much accelerated from where we thought.

因此，我們以同樣的方式看待離岸風電也非常相似。在整合方面我們自始至終都有很多機會。如果我退後一步，想想像澳大利亞項目這樣的事情，它不是海上風電，而是更多的可再生資產 ERM，我相信這是我們大約 4 年前在澳大利亞實際購買的業務。我們看到的是擁有再生能源資產交易業務和客戶的能力。它使我們能夠流過這些分子或電子，並能夠決定將它們放在哪裡。這對我們來說是非常有利可圖的，目前實際上現金非常積極。事實上，回報比我們想像的要快得多。

We've taken that same concept into when we could offshore wind. So when we look at offshore wind, our thought process is very much upon where can we see the integration. We don't look at specifically around geography, it's more about what is the actual space we exist in. Our team has been quite measured and quite paced around that. And of course, it is a challenged area as we've seen plenty of press reports on it recently. So we've been a bit careful to try and look at where can we ensure that we don't lock in the revenues before we've actually locked in the cost. That's difficult to do, of course, as you progress the project, but that's been very much our focus.

當我們可以使用離岸風電時，我們也採用了同樣的概念。因此，當我們考慮離岸風電時，我們的思考過程很大程度上取決於我們在哪裡可以看到整合。我們不會專門關注地理，更多的是關注我們存在的實際空間。我們的團隊對此進行了相當的衡量和調整。當然，這是一個充滿挑戰的領域，因為我們最近看到了大量關於它的新聞報導。因此，我們一直非常小心地嘗試著看看如何確保在實際鎖定成本之前不會鎖定收入。當然，隨著專案的進展，這很難做到，但這一直是我們的重點。

You alluded to specifically Germany. I would say that we did not win the German -- the auction at that point and quite pleased not to have done at those sort of rates. But what we did talk about before and I think is what you're alluding to is actually the Netherlands. We've talked before about the fact that across the Netherlands, it depends which project you're in, but that we do have optionality. So you see some of our offshore wind there having the ability to either use those green electrons to move them into either hydrogen or HEFA or wherever it may be, or to sell into the market. What we see, of course, is typically when we have merchant exposure, we have more flexibility. Yes, it's more risk, but we get to see those higher returns as well. Thank you for the question.

您特別提到了德國。我想說的是，我們沒有贏得德國的拍賣——當時的拍賣，並且很高興沒有以這樣的價格完成拍賣。但我們之前討論過，我認為你所指的實際上是荷蘭。我們之前已經討論過這樣一個事實：在整個荷蘭，這取決於您所在的項目，但我們確實有選擇權。所以你會看到我們的一些離岸風電能夠利用這些綠色電子將它們轉化為氫氣或 HEFA 或任何可能的地方，或出售到市場。當然，我們看到的是，當我們擁有商家曝光度時，我們通常會擁有更大的靈活性。是的，風險更大，但我們也能看到更高的回報。感謝你的提問。

Thanks, Sinead, for that. And Irene, thank you for the question as well.

謝謝你，西妮德。艾琳，也謝謝你的提問。

Our next caller is Martijn Rats from Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個來電者是來自摩根士丹利的 Martijn Rats。

I've got 2, if I may. I wanted to ask about the res segment, not the biggest part of the company, but nevertheless, about sort of 5% or so of forward consensus earnings estimates sort of sit in that segment. The earnings were sort of close to 0 on this quarter, which looks like compared to the last couple of quarters, but of course, the last couple of quarters had extraordinary conditions, particularly in European energy markets, which I would imagine will have benefited that segment given that it consolidates some of the trading activities. I was wondering if you could give some forward guidance on where we should expect res earnings sort of in quarters ahead now that some of the -- some of that sort of crazy volatility is gone. That was one.

如果可以的話，我有 2 個。我想問資源部門，不是公司最大的部分，但儘管如此，大約 5% 左右的預期獲利預測屬於該部門。本季度的收益接近 0，這看起來與過去幾個季度相比，但當然，過去幾個季度的情況非常好，特別是在歐洲能源市場，我認為這將受益於鑑於它整合了一些貿易活動。我想知道，既然某些瘋狂的波動性已經消失，您是否可以就我們未來幾季的收入預期給出一些前瞻性指引。那是一個。

And the second I wanted to ask relates to the Marketing segment. Sort of earnings were a little sort of on the light side there compared to expectations whilst actually industry retail fuel margins were sort of quite healthy. We can also see that in sort of independent data from others. But the statement mentioned quite a significant increase in cost of about $630 million as being the fact that sort of weighed on results. And I was wondering if you could say something about that $630 million of extra operational cost in Marketing, where it comes from, is that reversible? If you could say something about that, that would be most helpful.

我想問的第二個問題與行銷部門有關。與預期相比，獲利有點偏少，但實際上該行業零售燃料利潤率相當健康。我們也可以從其他人的獨立數據中看到這一點。但聲明中提到，成本大幅增加約 6.3 億美元，對業績產生了一定影響。我想知道您能否談談行銷方面 6.3 億美元的額外營運成本，它是從哪裡來的，這是可逆的嗎？如果您能對此說些什麼，那將是最有幫助的。

Super. Martijn, thank you very much. Do you want to take both?

極好的。馬丁，非常感謝你。您想兩者都帶走嗎？

Sure. On the first one with respect to res, you're referring to the fact that this is the quarter we've actually gone negative, I believe. So in terms of that one, what we're seeing there, you're absolutely spot on. You actually need to probably have more time to take a step back and look at back to the start of 2022. So of course, with the war, et cetera, you saw that volatility coming through and it came to in the gas markets, but also, of course, in the power markets as well.

當然。關於第一個關於資源的問題，我認為您指的是我們實際上在本季出現負成長的事實。所以就這一點而言，我們在那裡看到的，你絕對是對的。實際上，您可能需要有更多的時間後退一步，回顧 2022 年初。因此，當然，隨著戰爭等的發生，您看到了天然氣市場的波動，但當然，在電力市場也是如此。

And actually, what you saw was a big cash outflow for us in terms of Q1 to Q3 in '22, which is really about as the volatility came through in building inventory. And then from Q4 to Q2 of this year, you actually saw that cash come back in. Now that's interesting. Now that volatility, of course, doesn't get created in the earnings at the moment. So it is much more stable in terms of volatility as well.

事實上，你看到的是我們在 22 年第一季到第三季出現了大量現金流出，這實際上是因為庫存建設過程中出現了波動。然後從今年第四季度到第二季度，你實際上看到了現金的回流。這很有趣。當然，目前的收益並不會產生波動性。因此，它在波動性方面也更加穩定。

In terms of forward look, I'm not going to do a forward look, as you can imagine, around that. It is -- a considerable piece of it is around trading, of course. And as we begin to weight more towards power or gas, you'll see that volatility coming through, and you'll see that flow, and of course, as some of the operational assets continue to develop. So that's on the res side.

就前瞻性而言，我不會像你想像的那樣圍繞這一點進行前瞻性展望。當然，其中很大一部分是圍繞交易的。當我們開始更多地關注電力或天然氣時，您會看到波動性的出現，並且您會看到這種流動，當然，隨著一些營運資產的繼續發展。這是在資源方面。

And then the second one you had, which was around marketing specifically. So marketing is, from our perspective, we actually did see a squeeze in terms of the margins. So I would have a slightly different view on that in terms of just margins being compressed. And of course, that's just logical when we saw the rising commodity prices coming through, just an increase in the feedstocks at the end of the day.

然後是第二個，專門與行銷相關。因此，從我們的角度來看，行銷實際上確實看到了利潤的擠壓。因此，我對利潤率被壓縮的觀點略有不同。當然，當我們看到大宗商品價格上漲時，這就是合乎邏輯的，最終只是原料的增加。

Secondly what we saw, of course, was with respect to lubricants, which obviously comes in there as well. It's not just our mobility business, but we actually saw softness there. And that's, of course, down to the fact that you're seeing inflation hit some of the industrial side of things, so the demand is really just falling. So that on the lubricant side, combined with increased costs in terms of the mobility side and also just slightly less demand, we didn't see the driving season kick off quite as much as we would want. That's what you really saw flowing through.

其次，我們當然看到的是潤滑劑，這顯然也存在其中。這不僅僅是我們的行動業務，我們實際上也看到了那裡的疲軟。當然，這是因為通貨膨脹打擊了工業方面的某些方面，因此需求實際上只是在下降。因此，在潤滑油方面，再加上移動方面的成本增加以及需求略有減少，我們並沒有看到駕駛季節的開始像我們希望的那樣。這就是你真正看到的流經情況。

But fundamentally, when I take that step back and look at it as an integrated portfolio, Martijn, as you know. So I would expect our marketing business to do a little bit less when you're seeing our Upstream business doing so well. At the same time, am I confident -- what I'd suspect is where you're going to in terms of am I confident that we're going to hit the sort of numbers that we're talking about from Capital Markets Day. I am. I take a step back and look at it from the point of view of previous years.

但從根本上說，當我退後一步並將其視為一個綜合投資組合時，Martijn，如您所知。因此，當你看到我們的上游業務表現如此出色時，我預計我們的行銷業務會做得少一些。同時，我是否有信心——我懷疑的是，我是否有信心我們會達到我們在資本市場日討論的那種數字。我是。我退後一步，從往年的角度來看。

If you look at it from the perspective of 2019 where we had $65 Brent, and we were hitting about $3.9 billion in terms of earnings, can then compare it, of course, to where we were in 2022 where we were actually sitting at $100 and at about $2.8 billion. So full year so far, we're already hitting that level. So we haven't even hit, sorry, the full year. So that gives us the time in terms of the comparison between 2019 and 2022, that comparison effort. And if you read into that, you can see our confidence in terms of being able to deliver with the option, of course, of OpEx, which we're going after very heavily, which links to your cost question, and of course, focus, which is going to be key, hence Pakistan, and you'll see more of that flowing through in the next couple of quarters as well. Thank you for the questions.

如果你從2019 年的角度來看，當時我們的布蘭特原油價格為65 美元，我們的收益約為39 億美元，那麼當然可以將其與2022 年的情況進行比較，當時我們的實際收益為100 美元，約28億美元。到目前為止，全年我們已經達到了這個水平。所以抱歉，我們甚至還沒有達到全年。因此，這給了我們時間來比較 2019 年和 2022 年，即比較工作。如果你讀到這一點，你可以看到我們對能夠提供選項的信心，當然，我們非常重視營運支出，這與你的成本問題有關，當然，重點，這將是關鍵，因此巴基斯坦，你也會在接下來的幾個季度看到更多的情況。謝謝你的提問。

Thanks, Sinead. Martijn, thank you for the 2 questions.

謝謝，西妮德。馬丁，謝謝你提出的兩個問題。

The next caller is Christopher Kuplent from Bank of America.

下一個來電者是美國銀行的 Christopher Kuplent。

Just following 2 questions. The first one probably for you, Sinead. You've now obviously told us it's going to be $23 billion or thereabouts of cash returns. I just wanted to understand a little bit what you're trying to tell us with your 30% to 40% payout ratio. Are you guiding us towards CFFO in the fourth quarter that I -- on my bad math, then needs to be $60 million or so. And are you telling us something here on perhaps a reversal or part reversal of some of these derivative cash outflows that you've seen not just in the third quarter, but really all year? So a broad question. Make of it what you like.

只是以下 2 個問題。第一個可能適合你，Sinead。您現在顯然已經告訴我們這將是 230 億美元左右的現金回報。我只是想了解一下您想用 30% 到 40% 的支付率告訴我們什麼。你是否會引導我們在第四季度實現 CFFO？根據我的糟糕數學計算，我需要 6000 萬美元左右。您是否在這裡告訴我們一些衍生性商品現金流出可能出現逆轉或部分逆轉的情況，您不僅在第三季度，而且在全年都看到了這種情況？這是一個廣泛的問題。把它變成你喜歡的樣子。

And then secondly, you just mentioned Pakistan. I wonder whether that process has gone as you would have expected in terms of interest from the trade and how you feel about that indication you gave us in June while cutting that marketing tail a little further?

其次，你剛才提到了巴基斯坦。我想知道這個過程是否按照您預期的行業興趣進行，以及您對 6 月份向我們提供的指示有何感想，同時進一步削減了營銷尾巴？

Great. Let me start with the second one and then go to Sinead rightly as you advised, Chris. On Pakistan, what I would say is it's moved faster than I would have expected. Because these are not typically liquid markets for some of these transactions. We did have good interest, and we're very pleased to have signed with Wafi, the company that's going to be acquiring it.

偉大的。讓我從第二個開始，然後按照你的建議正確地去西尼德，克里斯。關於巴基斯坦，我想說的是它的進展速度比我預期的還要快。因為對於其中一些交易來說，這些市場通常不是流動性市場。我們確實有很大的興趣，而且我們很高興與即將收購它的 Wafi 公司簽約。

If I broaden the question indeed more holistically, we are already making a number of moves to be able to continue to high-grade the portfolio as we pursue value over volume and marketing. This is one of more examples, as Sinead's already indicated, that you will see in the coming quarters. I'll just reiterate the point Sinead made there.

如果我確實更全面地擴展這個問題，我們已經採取了一些舉措，以便能夠在我們追求價值而不是銷售和行銷的同時繼續提高產品組合的品質。正如 Sinead 已經指出的那樣，這是您在未來幾季中將看到的更多示例之一。我只是重申西尼德在那裡提出的觀點。

The few things we're trying to do in the mobility and marketing space, in general, are: number one, continue to manage our costs; number two, high-grade that portfolio; number three, look to premiumize more and more, so push for differentiated products in both our mobility and in our lubricants business; and then, number four, selectively invest capital. We still invest around $3 billion in marketing. Invest that capital in the areas where we see that we can deliver the sorts of returns, the 15-plus percent IRRs that we have seen. And these typically can be relatively short cycle investments. And so we are, in essence, executing that strategy, and you will see more proof points of that over the coming quarters as we bring it to life. Sinead?

一般來說，我們在行動和行銷領域嘗試做的幾件事是：第一，繼續管理我們的成本；第二，高品位的投資組合；第三，尋求越來越高端化，因此在我們的行動出行和潤滑油業務中推動差異化產品；然後，第四，選擇性地投資資本。我們仍投資約 30 億美元用於行銷。將這些資本投資於我們認為能夠帶來回報的領域，即我們所看到的 15% 以上的 IRR。這些通常是週期相對較短的投資。因此，從本質上講，我們正在執行該策略，當我們將其付諸實踐時，您將在未來幾季看到更多的證據。西妮德？

Indeed. And thanks, Chris. I always find myself dancing around I'm not doing forward guidance with you in terms of the questions. Now to be really clear, we're not guiding, in any sense. This is just a mixture of buybacks and delivered buybacks and dividends so far. So simply put, Q1 was $4 billion, Q2 was $4 billion, $3 billion in Q3 and $3.5 billion, of course, in (inaudible) as well. So that's the $14.5 billion coming across.

的確。謝謝，克里斯。我總是發現自己在跳舞，我沒有就問題向您提供前瞻性指導。現在要明確的是，我們在任何意義上都不是在指導。這只是回購以及迄今為止已交付的回購和股息的混合。簡而言之，第一季為 40 億美元，第二季為 40 億美元，第三季為 30 億美元，當然，（聽不清楚）也為 35 億美元。這就是 145 億美元。

And with the dividends, roughly speaking, in terms of what's announced, it's $8.4 billion, of course, for -- so far in terms of taking across those 4 quarters, hence the $23 billion. Nothing more than that, but yes, very much committed to my 30% to 40% over across the cycle. So that's where we are. Thank you.

粗略地說，就已宣布的股息而言，當然，到目前為止，就這 4 個季度而言，股息為 84 億美元，因此為 230 億美元。僅此而已，但是，是的，我非常致力於在整個週期中實現 30% 到 40% 的目標。這就是我們現在的情況。謝謝。

Thanks, Sinead, and thanks for the questions, Chris.

謝謝西尼德，也謝謝克里斯提出的問題。

Our next caller is Alastair Syme from Citi.

我們的下一個來電者是花旗銀行的阿拉斯泰爾·賽姆 (Alastair Syme)。

Can I just ask on the LNG business? The Panama Canal is currently constrained, and it looks to be affecting flows of LNG cargoes for the U.S. Gulf. From your perspective, is this a cost or an opportunity as you think about the fourth quarter and any sort of magnitude, please?

可以問一下液化天然氣業務嗎？巴拿馬運河目前受到限制，似乎正在影響美國海灣的液化天然氣貨物流動。從您的角度來看，當您考慮第四季度時，這是一種成本還是機會，其規模如何？

And then secondly, perhaps if you could give us some perspectives on where you think you're at in the midyear? There's a lot out there in the industry press and I'm not really sure what to believe. So maybe some sort of holistic overview from you about where you think you're at? And do you understand the geological system that you have?

其次，也許您能給我們一些關於您認為自己在年中所處的位置的看法嗎？行業媒體上有很多說法，但我不確定該相信什麼。那麼，也許您對自己所處的位置有某種整體的概述？您了解您擁有的地質系統嗎？

Thanks, Alastair. Let me take the second one and go to Sinead for the first one. On Namibia, we continue to like what we see. So we are in the process where we have now appointed a full-time leader to be based in Namibia to oversee the overall play, and he will be moving out there early next year. To date, we have drilled 5 exploration wells. We've drilled one appraisal well, and we've had one successful flow test.

謝謝，阿拉斯泰爾。讓我拿第二個，然後去找 Sinead 拿第一個。在納米比亞，我們仍然喜歡我們所看到的。因此，我們現在正在任命一名全職領導者駐紮納米比亞，負責監督整體比賽，他將於明年初搬到那裡。到目前為止，我們已鑽探5口探井。我們鑽了一口評價井，並成功進行了一口流動測試。

What's particularly pleasing is that all of those wells drilled have been top quartile across every benchmark that we find in the wells space. And so as important as discovery, making sure that we can actually outcompete when we drill those wells is a key area that we're focused on. And of course, we're leveraging significant learnings that we have across our global portfolio.

特別令人高興的是，所有鑽探的井在我們在井空間中找到的每個基準中都名列前四分之一。與發現一樣重要的是，確保我們在鑽探這些井時能夠真正在競爭中脫穎而出，這是我們關注的關鍵領域。當然，我們正在利用我們在全球投資組合中獲得的重要經驗。

As we look into the coming months, so do we fully understand the geology and subsurface? I would say, no, this is an evolving picture as you would expect. There's a lot of encouraging data that we have identified, and you have picked some of it around volumes in place and the like. And critically now, it's about making sure that we understand the producibility of a lot of the various horizons that are there in that play.

當我們展望未來幾個月時，我們是否完全了解地質和地下情況？我想說，不，正如你所期望的那樣，這是一個不斷發展的圖像。我們已經確定了許多令人鼓舞的數據，您已經根據實際數量等選擇了其中一些數據。現在最重要的是，確保我們了解該劇中許多不同視野的可製作性。

In the next 6 to 9 months, we expect to drill another exploration well, another appraisal well as well and at least one more flow test, which starts to converge on understanding the overall development pathway we take for it. To give you a sense of our belief in Namibia, roughly 1/4 of our deepwater exploration spend in 2023 and 2024 will be directed to Namibia. So it is a theater that we fundamentally believe in and we are looking to understand what is the optimal pathway for us to be able to go forward. Sinead?

在接下來的 6 到 9 個月內，我們預計將鑽另一口勘探井、另一口評估井以及至少一次流動測試，這些測試將開始集中於了解我們為此採取的整體開發路徑。為了讓您了解我們對納米比亞的信念，我們在 2023 年和 2024 年的深水勘探支出中大約有 1/4 將流向納米比亞。因此，這是一個我們從根本上相信的劇院，我們正在尋求了解我們能夠前進的最佳途徑是什麼。西妮德？

Yes. And thank you, Alastair. It's an interesting time at the gas markets at the moment because what we saw, of course, in this quarter in Q3 was fundamentally that you didn't have any changes to fundamentals, but you had changes to events. And that was what really drove some of the volatility coming across. Of course, the market is incredibly fragile at the moment. So you've seen big swings, for instance, all the speculations (inaudible) and strikes. We saw, of course, the European market move by many dollars, and of course, free porting the (technical difficulty)

是的。謝謝你，阿拉斯泰爾。目前天然氣市場處於一個有趣的時刻，因為當然，我們在第三季的這個季度看到的是，基本面沒有任何變化，但事件發生了變化。這才是真正導致一些波動的原因。當然，目前市場非常脆弱。例如，您已經看到了巨大的波動，所有的投機（聽不清楚）和罷工。當然，我們看到歐洲市場波動了很多美元，當然，也自由移植了（技術難度）

Alastair, thanks again for the questions.

阿拉斯泰爾，再次感謝您的提問。

Our next caller is Matt Lofting from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個來電者是來自摩根大通的馬特·洛夫廷（Matt Lofting）。

Luke, I can't hear Matt if he's speaking.

路克，如果馬特在說話，我聽不到他的聲音。

Apologies. Matt has dropped off the line. Our next caller is Kim Fustier from HSBC.

道歉。馬特掉線了。我們的下一個來電者是來自匯豐銀行的 Kim Fustier。

Firstly, just a quick follow-up on offshore wind. You handled the South Coast offshore project a few months ago in the U.S. Can you confirm whether you've taken impairment against that asset? And are you looking to rebid the project at a later stage? Or has this been permanently shelved if you can't really see the integration benefits?

首先，對離岸風電進行快速跟進。幾個月前，您在美國處理了南海岸海上專案。您能否確認您是否對該資產進行了減損？您是否打算在稍後階段重新投標該項目？或者如果您無法真正看到整合的好處，這是否已被永久擱置？

Secondly, I wanted to ask about the Venture Global LNG arbitration case. I think one of your senior executives has been quite vocal about the whole situation. To what extent does the situation change your view, if any, on growing LNG volumes through equity positions versus third-party offtake? Or do you think this is a problem that's very specific to Venture Global and you still remain comfortable with growing through third-party offtake?

其次，我想問Venture Global LNG仲裁案。我認為你們的一位高階主管對整個情況直言不諱。這種情況在多大程度上改變了您對透過股權部位與第三方承購來增加液化天然氣產量的看法（如果有的話）？或者您認為這是 Venture Global 特有的問題，而您仍然樂於透過第三方承購實現成長？

Thank you for that question. Sinead, do you want to start off with the first one?

謝謝你提出這個問題。 Sinead，你想從第一個開始嗎？

Sure. Absolutely, happy to, and thanks, Kim. Indeed, on offshore wind, you're referring to sort of 1 of the 2 JVs we have in the U.S. I referred earlier to the fact that we've been quite measured in terms of how we're taking those forward. But the one in particular that you referred to, I think you're referring to the news article that hit that we had pulled out of effectively a PPA there. That links to the comment I made earlier today, which was really about not liking to be -- locking in revenues when you have unlocked in costs in the hyperinflationary sort of environment. So what you saw us do there was to agree with our partner. And we both agreed that we would exit the PPA, not the project, but the PPA specifically at this point in time, and we will pay the penalty. In terms of Shell's share of the penalty, you'll see it's considerably less than 100 million, but that gives you a bit of a feel for what it is at the end of the day, Kim.

當然。當然，很高興並感謝金。事實上，在離岸風電方面，您指的是我們在美國擁有的 2 家合資企業中的 1 家。我之前提到過這樣一個事實，即我們在如何推進這些項目方面已經相當謹慎。但你特別提到的那個，我認為你指的是一篇新聞文章，該文章稱我們已有效地退出了那裡的購電協議。這與我今天早些時候發表的評論有關，這實際上是關於不喜歡在惡性通貨膨脹環境中釋放成本時鎖定收入。所以你看到我們在那裡所做的就是同意我們的合作夥伴的觀點。我們都同意我們將退出 PPA，而不是項目，而是在此時退出 PPA，我們將支付罰款。就殼牌公司所承擔的罰款而言，你會發現它遠低於 1 億美元，但這讓你對一天結束時的情況有所了解，Kim。

Thanks, Sinead. And Kim, to your second question on Venture Global. Look, where things stand at the moment is that we continue to be very disappointed by the fact that a facility that was or that is continuing to run at capacity or just around that and has now shipped over 200 cargoes continues to claim that they are in commissioning phase is not in the spirit of what we have typically seen nor is the norm in the energy -- in the LNG business.

謝謝，西妮德。 Kim，關於你關於 Venture Global 的第二個問題。看，目前的情況是，我們仍然感到非常失望，因為一家曾經或正在繼續滿負荷運行或接近滿負荷運行、現在已經運送了 200 多件貨物的設施仍然聲稱它們處於滿負荷狀態。調試階段不符合我們通常看到的精神，也不符合能源（液化天然氣）業務的規範。

The LNG business has been built over the past 60, 70 years on the back of sanctity of contracts, on the back of really ensuring that suppliers and buyers live up to their part of the bargain. In particular, in times like these where Europe as a specific example, but more generally when energy security is so top of mind, and the important role that the U.S. has to play in LNG supply in the future, it is very worrying that the actions of one player could potentially start to undermine confidence in LNG coming out of the U.S. And so we, at Shell, as one of the players that, in essence, provided the bankability for that project through our offtake, we'll use all everything within our means to be able to ensure that the -- we enforce the sanctity of the contract that we have there.

液化天然氣業務是在過去 60、70 年裡建立在合約神聖不可侵犯的基礎上的，是在真正確保供應商和買家履行自己的協議的基礎上建立的。特別是在這樣的時期，以歐洲為例，但更普遍的是，當能源安全如此重要，以及美國未來在液化天然氣供應中必鬚髮揮的重要作用時，其行動非常令人擔憂一個參與者的參與可能會開始削弱人們對美國液化天然氣的信心。因此，殼牌作為本質上透過我們的承購為該項目提供融資能力的參與者之一，我們將使用內部的所有資源我們有能力確保——我們執行我們在那裡簽訂的合約的神聖性。

What does it mean for us going forward? This is very much an isolated case. We haven't seen this with other players. We have good experiences with a number of third-party suppliers in the U.S. and well beyond the U.S. This is not unique to the U.S. And that is what this industry has been built on a combination of equity and third party, and that is a space we will continue to occupy. We will focus our capital on the areas where we think we can uniquely bring value by building a facility like, for example, in LNG Canada as part of our partnership there. Whereas other areas where, for example, there is available capital to underwrite it, we will leverage the fact that we are the biggest LNG trader in the world, the biggest LNG optimizer in the world, to be able to underwrite those projects with our offtake agreements. That strategy is unchanged. But that specific situation with Venture Global is a unique one that we are looking to work on over the coming days and weeks. Thank you.

對我們前進意味著什麼？這在很大程度上是一個孤立的案例。我們還沒有在其他玩家身上看到過這種情況。我們與美國和美國以外的許多第三方供應商擁有良好的經驗。這並不是美國獨有的。這就是這個行業建立在股權和第三方相結合的基礎上的，這是一個空間我們將繼續佔領。我們將把資金集中在我們認為可以透過建設設施來獨特地帶來價值的領域，例如在加拿大液化天然氣公司，作為我們在那裡合作夥伴關係的一部分。而其他領域，例如，有可用資金來承銷的，我們將利用我們是世界上最大的液化天然氣貿易商、世界上最大的液化天然氣優化商這一事實，能夠用我們的承購來承銷這些項目協議。該策略沒有改變。但 Venture Global 的具體情況是一個獨特的情況，我們希望在未來幾天和幾週內解決這個問題。謝謝。

Our next caller is Henry Tarr from Berenberg.

我們的下一個來電者是來自貝倫貝格的亨利·塔爾。

I have two. One on exploration, and I think you said around 1/4 of the deepwater exploration spend is going into Namibia this year and next year. How is exploration spend overall moved through this year and into next? Have we seen a pickup in exploration spend relative to the last few years? I guess that's the first question.

我有兩個。一是關於勘探，我想你說過今年和明年大約 1/4 的深水勘探支出將投入納米比亞。今年和明年的勘探支出總體狀況如何？與過去幾年相比，我們是否看到勘探支出有所回升？我想這是第一個問題。

And then the second, just to come back on the derivative moves in the cash flow. I mean they're fairly opaque from the upside, but I think it was $13.5 billion over the last 4 quarters. How should we think about that kind of looking forward? I presume it will all wash out or is otherwise trading off, but would be good to get a sense.

然後是第二個，只是回到現金流中的衍生性商品變動。我的意思是，從上行趨勢來看，它們相當不透明，但我認為過去 4 個季度的收入為 135 億美元。我們該如何看待這種期待呢？我認為它會全部消失或以其他方式進行權衡，但了解一下會很好。

Thanks, Henry. Sinead, do you want to take the second one first?

謝謝，亨利。西妮德，你想先拿第二個嗎？

Yes, certainly. So in terms of derivatives, I'll just address this quarter specifically because it gives you a bit more of the effects. If you see one of the slides, of course, Henry, that you see 2.5 billion in terms of derivatives. What you don't see, of course, is that this is the roll off of some of our paper positions that occurs in this quarter where we've had some of the cash before. So you can't see the linkage, of course, the timing effect that comes through. That's just natural in the way these roll off.

是的，當然了。因此，就衍生性商品而言，我將專門討論本季度，因為它會給您帶來更多影響。當然，亨利，如果你看一張投影片，你會看到衍生性商品價值 25 億美元。當然，你看不到的是，這是我們在本季度發生的一些紙面頭寸的滾動，而我們之前已經擁有了一些現金。所以你當然看不到這種聯繫，也看不到所產生的時間效應。這些滾動的方式是很自然的。

We do hedge, absolutely. We find that very helpful to our business, and you see that flow through in terms of the profitability that we have. So it's not unusual for us. I don't really expect to see anything unusual in terms of releases or anything. That's just the way we run our business. So you see the 2.5 now, and you would have seen cash in previous quarters.

我們絕對會進行對沖。我們發現這對我們的業務非常有幫助，你會看到這對我們的獲利能力產生了影響。所以這對我們來說並不罕見。我真的不希望在發布或其他方面看到任何不尋常的東西。這就是我們經營業務的方式。所以你現在看到的是 2.5，而且你在前幾季也會看到現金。

And on your first question, Henry, on exploration. Over the last 2, 3 years, we've been sort of running at just north of $1 billion per annum on exploration. What has continued to happen is we have looked to focus that exploration more and more on what we call our heartlands, our core countries. Gulf of Mexico attracts quite a bit of that. Brazil will attract some of that. And of course, countries -- a country like Namibia will get a significant portion, as I identified earlier.

關於你的第一個問題，亨利，關於探索。在過去的 2、3 年裡，我們每年的勘探費用接近 10 億美元。持續發生的事情是，我們希望將探索越來越集中在我們所謂的中心地帶、我們的核心國家。墨西哥灣吸引了相當多的人。巴西將吸引其中的一些。當然，正如我之前指出的，像納米比亞這樣的國家將獲得很大一部分。

That's important because we look at the balance of what we would call greenfield exploration versus what our backfill opportunities, near-field exploration. You'll have seen us, for example, recently pick up some licenses in the U.K. next to existing facilities. We continue to aim to do the same in places like the Gulf of Mexico. Unfortunately, at the moment, there's unprecedented uncertainty with those leases, which we hope will be resolved by the federal government because the stability, I think, is critical to be able to make those long-term investments. But by and large, what you see us do is continue to leverage existing infrastructure to be able to explore and bring short-cycle opportunities into production and for cash generation as quickly as possible. And that is consistently what we have been doing over the last couple of years and what we will consistently continue to do in the coming years.

這很重要，因為我們會考慮綠地探勘與回填機會（近場勘探）之間的平衡。例如，您會看到我們最近在英國現有設施旁邊獲得了一些許可證。我們繼續致力於在墨西哥灣等地做同樣的事情。不幸的是，目前這些租賃存在前所未有的不確定性，我們希望聯邦政府能夠解決這個問題，因為我認為穩定性對於能夠進行這些長期投資至關重要。但總的來說，我們所做的是繼續利用現有基礎設施來探索短週期機會並將其帶入生產並儘快產生現金。這就是我們過去幾年一直在做的事情，也是我們在未來幾年將繼續做的事情。

Thank you for that question, Henry.

謝謝你提出這個問題，亨利。

Okay. I think we're at the end of the session, Sinead. So I think time to close it down. Thank you all for your questions and for spending some time with us this afternoon here in London. We wish all of you a pleasant end of the week. Thank you very much, and stay safe.

好的。我想我們的會議已經結束了，Sinead。所以我認為是時候關閉它了。感謝大家提出問題，感謝你們今天下午在倫敦與我們共度時光。我們祝大家週末愉快。非常感謝，並注意安全。