殼牌 (SHEL) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

(video starts)

（影片開始）

Welcome to Shell's third quarter 2025 results presentation. This quarter, we delivered another strong set of results. Our adjusted earnings were $5.4 billion, and we generated $12.2 billion in cash flow from operations. The quarter-on-quarter improvement was driven by strong performance across our businesses with all demonstrating positive momentum. This quarter clearly illustrates our focus on performance, discipline and simplification is laying the foundations of a winning performance culture across Shell.

歡迎參加殼牌2025年第三季業績發表會。本季度，我們再次取得了強勁的業績。我們調整後的收益為 54 億美元，經營活動產生的現金流量為 122 億美元。環比成長得益於我們各業務部門的強勁表現，所有業務部門都展現出積極的發展勢頭。本季清楚地表明，我們對績效、紀律和簡化的關注正在為殼牌打造一種成功的績效文化奠定基礎。

So let's start with performance. In Integrated Gas, strong operational delivery drove higher liquefaction volumes, which in turn enabled a higher contribution from LNG trading and optimization this quarter. The start-up of LNG Canada where 13 cargoes were delivered from Train 1 in Q3 contributed to these volumes, and there's more to come with the expected startup of Train 2 later this quarter.

那麼，我們先從性能說起。在綜合天然氣業務中，強勁的營運交付推動了液化量的成長，進而使得本季液化天然氣交易和優化貢獻更大。LNG Canada 的投產（第三季 1 號生產線交付了 13 批貨物）促成了這些產量，預計本季稍後 2 號生產線也將投產，產量還會更高。

In Upstream, our strong operational performance resulted in higher production. Together, Brazil and the Gulf of America made up more than half of our liquids production in Upstream. In Brazil, we achieved our highest ever quarterly production. And in the Gulf of America, we reached our highest quarterly production level since 2005. Both were supported by successful project ramp-ups such as the Whale project in the Gulf of America, which reached nameplate capacity with wells producing above the investment case expectations. This was achieved in less than half the expected time, showing the benefit of our design one, build many philosophy.

在上游業務方面，我們出色的營運表現帶來了更高的產量。巴西和美洲灣加起來占我們上游液體產量的一半以上。在巴西，我們實現了有史以來最高的季度產量。在美洲灣，我們達到了自 2005 年以來最高的季度產量水準。這兩個項目都得到了成功推進的支持，例如美國灣的鯨魚項目，該項目達到了額定產能，油井產量超過了投資預期。這項工作在不到預期時間的一半時間內完成，這體現了我們「一次設計，多次建造」理念的優勢。

And we also saw numerous examples of operational excellence in other parts of the company. In marketing, the business delivered its second highest quarterly adjusted earnings in over a decade, as we continue to capture more value through growing margins of our premium products. Chemicals & Products results also improved quarter-on-quarter with stronger crude and products trading, whilst chemicals continues to face challenges with weak margins.

我們也看到了公司其他部門在營運方面的許多卓越案例。在行銷方面，公司實現了十多年來第二高的季度調整後收益，因為我們透過不斷提高高端產品的利潤率，持續創造更多價值。化學品及產品業務的績效也較上季改善，原油和成品油交易走強，但化學品業務利潤率仍疲軟，面臨挑戰。

Moving to our second focus area, simplification, where the organization is making real progress. At our QGC asset in Australia, for instance, production reached an all-time high in the third quarter. This was supported by a reduction of almost 90% in well site permits ensuring operations are not only safe and fit for purpose, but also allowing the team to free up time for even more value-added activities.

接下來我們來看第二個重點領域──簡化，在這個領域，組織正在取得真正的進展。例如，我們在澳洲的 QGC 資產在第三季的產量達到了歷史最高水準。此外，井場許可證數量減少了近 90%，這不僅確保了作業的安全性和適用性，而且還讓團隊有更多時間從事更多增值活動。

We're also simplifying our portfolio, just as we said we would at Capital Markets Day. We continue to maintain a relentless focus on value over volume, high-grading the portfolio, where we see the opportunities to do so. And you can see this in our mobility business. Year-to-date, we've divested or closed some 400 lower-performing retail sites. Beyond mobility, we have completed the divestment of the noncore interest in the Colonial Pipeline, which generated around $1 billion in proceeds.

我們也在簡化投資組合，正如我們在資本市場日上所說的。我們始終堅持以價值而非數量為重，在有機會的時候對投資組合進行升級。這一點在我們的旅遊業務中也反映出來了。今年迄今為止，我們已經剝離或關閉了約 400 家業績較差的零售門市。除了交通運輸業務外，我們還完成了對 Colonial Pipeline 非核心權益的剝離，從中獲得了約 10 億美元的收益。

And we also completed the sell-down of five Savion solar projects as part of our power strategy, where we are allocating capital to part of the value chain that offer higher returns and where we have differentiated capabilities.

作為我們電力策略的一部分，我們也完成了五個 Savion 太陽能專案的出售，我們將資金分配給價值鏈中能夠提供更高回報且我們擁有差異化能力的環節。

Our third focus area is discipline. We take our responsibility as custodians of shareholders' capital extremely seriously. And that is why we made the difficult but value-driven decision to not restart the construction of our HEFA biofuels facility in Rotterdam. And we continue to apply that rigorous value-driven lens to all of our investments. Our disciplined approach to capital allocation allows us to remain resilient throughout the cycle while continuing to invest in growth within our $20 billion to $22 billion cash CapEx range such as the HI gas development project in Nigeria, where we took a final investment decision this month.

我們的第三個重點領域是紀律。我們極為重視身為股東資本託管人的責任。因此，我們做出了一個艱難但以價值為導向的決定，即不再重啟我們在鹿特丹的 HEFA 生物燃料工廠的建設。我們將繼續把這種嚴格的價值導向視角應用於我們所有的投資。我們嚴謹的資本配置方法使我們能夠在整個週期中保持韌性，同時繼續在 200 億至 220 億美元的現金資本支出範圍內投資增長，例如我們在尼日利亞的 HI 天然氣開發項目，我們本月已就該項目做出了最終投資決定。

Looking at our financial framework more broadly. In Q3, our net debt decreased as we continue to maintain a strong balance sheet. We also continue to deliver attractive shareholder distributions. And at the end of Q3, our four quarter rolling shareholder distributions were 48% of CFFO, in line with our target range of 40% to 50% of CFFO through the cycle. And today, we announced another $3.5 billion share buyback program, which we expect to complete by the time of our Q4 results announcement. This marks the 16th consecutive quarter in which we have announced $3 billion or more in buybacks. Once this program is completed, we will have repurchased more than a quarter of our shares over the last four years.

從更廣闊的視角審視我們的財務框架。第三季度，由於我們繼續保持強勁的資產負債表，我們的淨債務有所下降。我們將繼續為股東提供具有吸引力的分紅。第三季末，我們四個季度的滾動股東分紅佔 CFFO 的 48%，符合我們在整個週期內 CFFO 40% 至 50% 的目標範圍。今天，我們宣布了另一項 35 億美元的股票回購計劃，預計將在第四季度業績公佈時完成。這標誌著我們連續第16季宣布了30億美元或以上的股票回購計畫。該計劃完成後，我們將在過去四年中回購超過四分之一的股份。

So to summarize, in Q3, we delivered strong financial results, improving our performance quarter-on-quarter. This improvement was driven by strong operational performance across the company and we'll keep delivering on what we say, focusing on performance, discipline and simplification. So we can continue to deliver more value with less emissions. Thank you.

總而言之，第三季我們取得了強勁的財務業績，環比業績有所提升。這項進步得益於公司整體強勁的營運表現，我們將持續兌現承諾，專注於績效、紀律和簡化流程。這樣我們就能以更少的排放創造更多的價值。謝謝。

(video ends)

（影片結束）

Thank you for joining us today. We hope that after watching the presentation, you've seen how we delivered a strong set of results in the third quarter and how our principles of performance, discipline and simplification are guiding us in our actions. Today, we also released updated guidelines on how to model Shell, which you can find in our slide pack. We hope you find them useful.

感謝您今天蒞臨。我們希望您在觀看演示後，能夠了解我們在第三季度取得的優異成績，以及我們秉持的績效、紀律和簡化原則如何引導我們的行動。今天，我們也發布了關於如何對 Shell 進行建模的更新指南，您可以在我們的幻燈片包中找到它。希望這些資訊對您有所幫助。

And now Sinead and I will be answering your questions. So please could we have just one or two questions each so that everyone gets the opportunity.

現在，我和希妮德將回答大家的問題。所以，請大家每人只提一兩個問題，以便每個人都有機會提問。

With that, could we have the first one, please, Luke?

那麼，盧克，我們可以先看第一個嗎？

Matt Lofting, JPMorgan.

馬特‧洛夫廷，摩根大通。

Thanks for taking the questions, and congratulations on the strength of performance in 3Q. Two questions related to operational performance, if I could, please. First, I thought the performance in the Upstream business across Brazil and the Gulf of America looked like it was a highlight of the third quarter. How sustainable do you see that performance going into 2026 and beyond.

感謝您回答問題，並祝賀您在第三季取得了優異的業績。如果可以的話，請問兩個與營運績效相關的問題。首先，我認為巴西和美洲灣上游業務的表現是第三季的一大亮點。您認為這種業績在2026年及以後能持續多久？

And then secondly, in the IG business, to what extent was the third quarter improvement in trading supported by operational outperformance versus greater market opportunity? In other words, is there any change to the new norm market conditions that we referenced in the summer? Thank you.

其次，在投資管理業務方面，第三季交易績效的改善在多大程度上得益於營運績效的超常發揮，又在多大程度上得益於更大的市場機會？換句話說，我們夏季提到的新常態市場條件是否有改變？謝謝。

Appreciate that, Matt. Thank you very much. I'll take the first question and ask Sinead to address the second one. Very proud of the work in both Brazil and in the Gulf of America. I think it goes back to a journey we've been on now for a few years, really trying to go back to what we've called the brilliant basics, rigor in the way that we are executing the turnaround. So this quarter, we still had turnarounds in both Brazil and in the Gulf, and those have gone to plan below schedule -- faster than scheduled plan as well as actually below budget. So really pleased with that.

謝謝，馬特。非常感謝。我先回答第一個問題，第二個問題請希妮德來回答。對我們在巴西和美洲灣地區所做的工作感到非常自豪。我認為這要追溯到我們過去幾年一直在進行的旅程，我們真正努力回歸到我們所說的“卓越的基本原則”，以嚴謹的方式執行轉型。所以本季度，我們在巴西和海灣地區仍然實現了扭虧為盈，而且這些扭虧為盈的進度比計劃更快，實際成本也低於預算。對此我非常滿意。

But also just the rigor in the way that the teams are following through on all the different operational metrics that we are focused on at the moment. And so I think across the patch, I see that strength, not by the way, just in those two big bases, but also across our conventional oil and gas portfolio. In terms of how much is this sort of sustainable? I believe that the improvements we have are very much sustainable. Of course, we will continue to want to bring those facilities down for maintenance on the annual basis that we typically do.

但更重要的是，各團隊在執行我們目前關注的所有不同營運指標方面展現出的嚴謹性。因此，我認為在整個區域內，我看到了這種優勢，不僅體現在這兩個大基地，也體現在我們整個常規油氣投資組合中。這種模式的永續性究竟如何？我相信我們所取得的這些進步是完全可持續的。當然，我們仍將像往常一樣，每年對這些設施進行維護和保養。

But we've also seen some of the tailwinds that come from new projects. In Brazil, you have Mero-3 and Mero-4 that started up this year. And in a place like the Gulf, we've had Whale startup, actually start up and do much faster ramp-up than maybe traditionally we have seen in many of our deepwater projects. And so across multiple measures, very pleased with that momentum and looking forward to sustaining and improving it because we know there's more to do there. Sinead?

但我們也看到了新項目帶來的一些利多因素。在巴西，Mero-3 和 Mero-4 於今年投入營運。在像墨西哥灣這樣的地方，我們的 Whale 計畫已經啟動，而且啟動速度比我們以往在許多深水計畫中看到的要快得多。因此，從多個方面來看，我們對這種勢頭非常滿意，並期待保持和改進這種勢頭，因為我們知道還有更多工作要做。希妮德？

Thanks. And thanks, Matt. Indeed, last quarter, we talked about integrated gas, and we talked about it moving towards a new normal. And how fast it was it's a new normal absent any opportunities to be able to trade around additional length or a variety of things that could occur in the market. So what did we see in Q3?

謝謝。謝謝你，馬特。事實上，上個季度我們討論了天然氣一體化，並討論了它如何走向新的常態。而且速度之快，已經成為一種新的常態，沒有任何機會可以圍繞額外的交易期限或市場中可能發生的各種情況進行交易。那麼，第三季我們看到了什麼？

In Q3, we saw very strong as well, put its operational performance, not just on upstream, but also on our integrated gas business as well. And that gives us length and therefore, the ability to trade around those. In addition, of course, there were some arbs opening up in terms of the different price lines between both Asia and Europe as well, which give the results that you see, which we're really pleased with. It's not a given, and we're so proud of the team for what they managed to deliver this quarter.

第三季度，我們的營運業績也非常強勁，不僅上游業務如此，我們的綜合天然氣業務也是如此。這使得我們有了長度優勢，因此，我們能夠圍繞這些優勢進行交易。當然，亞洲和歐洲之間不同的價格線也出現了一些套利機會，這帶來了你們所看到的結果，我們對此非常滿意。這並非理所當然，我們為團隊在本季所取得的成績感到非常自豪。

When we then look at Q4 and beyond, what do we see in Q4? So already, we're seeing some of those opportunities, but nowhere near the amounts that we had before, and we don't see any one-off helps. Of course, as we look to 2026, what we're seeing at the moment, the spreads aren't there. We'll see how it plays out as the year continues. Thank you.

那麼當我們展望第四季及以後時，我們在第四季看到了什麼？所以，我們已經看到了一些這樣的機會，但遠不及以前那麼多，我們也看不到任何一次性的幫助。當然，展望 2026 年，就目前來看，價差還沒出現。我們拭目以待，看看今年接下來的發展如何。謝謝。

Thank you, Sinead. Matt, thank you for the question. Luke, let's have a second question, please.

謝謝你，希妮德。馬特，謝謝你的提問。盧克，請問第二個問題好嗎？

Lydia Rainforth, Barclays.

莉迪亞·雷恩福斯，巴克萊銀行。

Thanks, and good afternoon to you both. I have two questions, please. The first one, artificial intelligence. We do seem to be seeing an acceleration in recent months of agents of the tech available. How are you thinking about AI deployment cross-sell? I know you've been doing it for a while, but how far through the journey are you? And when you think about what it means to the cost base, does it make a difference there in terms of where you are with the plan?

謝謝，也祝二位下午好。請問我有兩個問題。第一個是人工智慧。近幾個月來，我們似乎看到現有技術的代理商數量增加。您如何看待人工智慧部署的交叉銷售？我知道你已經做了一段時間了，但是你現在進展到什麼程度了？當你考慮這對成本基礎意味著什麼時，它是否會對你在計畫中所處的位置產生影響？

And then secondly, can I do a big picture? I'm sorry about this, but what are you seeing demand-wise, because clearly, within the market that's competing seriously between is there an orgel versus market starting to tighten next year versus inventories not showing up? How do you see that given all the demand base you have? And how does the buyback fit into sort of that uncertainty? Thanks.

其次，我可以畫一幅全景圖嗎？對此我深感抱歉，但您認為需求的情況如何？因為很明顯，在競爭激烈的市場中，是否存在某種因素導致明年市場供應趨緊，以及庫存不足等問題？鑑於你們擁有如此龐大的需求基礎，你們是如何看待這個問題的？那麼，回購計畫如何應對這種不確定性呢？謝謝。

Lydia, thank you for those questions. Let me address them both, starting with the AI question. I think the reality is we are every single day learning the potential that AI brings to our business and continuing to grapple with that and what it means. It's requiring us to relook at workflows, the way we do work in general and how we can improve. And so I think we're at the cusp of some exciting things ahead, and we're challenging ourselves as a team, as a company, to be able to embrace some of those opportunities.

莉迪亞，謝謝你的提問。讓我來回答這兩個問題，先從人工智慧的問題開始。我認為現實情況是，我們每天都在了解人工智慧為我們的業務帶來的潛力，並不斷努力應對這種潛力及其意義。這要求我們重新審視工作流程、整體的工作方式以及如何改善。所以我認為我們正處於一些令人興奮的事情發生的開端，我們作為一個團隊、作為一個公司，正在挑戰自我，以抓住這些機會。

I spoke a moment ago to Matt's question about some of the improvements in the Gulf of America, for example. The platforms like Olympus in the third quarter of this year, but also Ursa, you'll recall, we deepened our interest in Ursa buying Conoco share. Those two platforms had outstanding performance this past quarter. A large part of that is driven by our ability to detect issues before they materialize on the platform. And that is very much leveraging AI, leveraging our data capabilities and being able to bring those signals to the front line, so they can intervene before a trip happens on a facility.

例如，我剛剛回答了馬特關於美洲灣一些改進措施的問題。今年第三季度，我們關注了像 Olympus 這樣的平台，還有 Ursa，您可能還記得，我們​​加深了對 Ursa 收購 Conoco 股份的興趣。這兩個平台在上個季度表現出色。這很大程度上得益於我們能夠在問題出現在平台上之前就檢測到它們。這很大程度上是利用人工智慧，利用我們的數據能力，並將這些訊號傳遞到前線，以便在設施發生事故之前進行幹預。

So it is already helping us today in the way we are driving business outcomes. We're also using AI and trading more and more and looking at how we can leverage some of those split-second decisions to be able to make sure that we can create value and we optimize across the portfolio.

所以它現在已經在幫助我們實現業務成果方面發揮作用了。我們也越來越多地使用人工智慧進行交易，並研究如何利用這些瞬間決策來確保我們能夠創造價值並優化整個投資組合。

The last thing I'd say about AI is, of course, beyond how we use it for ourselves. We are in constant communication with many of the hyperscalers. You'll have heard about our deal with Google here in the UK, where we provide them the low carbon renewable energy that allows them to be able to run their data centers. So we are in service of many of these hyperscalers and looking at the opportunities to do the same in the US through our Savion entity. So really exciting space that we're getting our minds around and continuing to drive value out of.

關於人工智慧，我最後想說的當然是，除了我們如何利用它之外的其他方面。我們與許多超大規模資料中心營運商保持密切溝通。您應該聽說過我們與英國谷歌達成的協議，我們為他們提供低碳可再生能源，使他們能夠運行其數據中心。因此，我們正在為許多這樣的超大規模企業提供服務，並正在透過我們的 Savion 實體，尋求在美國開展相同業務的機會。這是一個非常令人興奮的領域，我們正在深入了解它，並不斷從中創造價值。

To your broader question around demand, what we see at the moment is indeed headwinds on the supply-demand fundamentals going into 2026 and a highly credible scenario that there is an oversupply in 2026. Of course, what we've seen in the last quarter or two is significant uptake in Chinese storage, and we have seen a lot more oil on water. So that has, in a way, sort of pushed out some of the oversupply. And of course, there's the macroeconomic or the geopolitical reality that we see as well, which puts a premium on prices. And so I think in the short to medium term, there are headwinds. Longer term, we continue to have strong conviction in crude prices going forward.

關於您提出的更廣泛的需求問題，我們目前看到的是，到 2026 年，供需基本面確實面臨不利因素，而且很有可能在 2026 年出現供應過剩的情況。當然，在過去一、兩個季度裡，我們看到中國儲油量大幅增加，而且海上石油儲量也大幅增加。因此，從某種程度上說，這在一定程度上緩解了供應過剩的問題。當然，我們也可以看到宏觀經濟或地緣政治現實，這些因素都會推高價格。所以我認為，在中短期內，會面臨一些不利因素。長遠來看，我們依然對原油價格的未來走勢充滿信心。

In LNG, we see a balanced outlook for the next year or so as we continue to see that supply-demand balance in good shape. And then, of course, longer term, we continue to be very bullish as well on LNG, and we can talk about that a bit more.

液化天然氣方面，我們認為未來一年左右的前景較為平衡，因為供需平衡狀況良好。當然，從長遠來看，我們仍然非常看好液化天然氣，我們可以再詳細談談這一點。

Finally, on your point around buybacks. I think in the context of the macro that we are going to be seeing what we have said, what we have already guided and continue to hold on to is our 40% to 50% distributions from CFFO is sacrosanct. And we very much intend to be able to continue to be within that range. And of course, we have positioned the company to be able to do that and to weather any potential downturns that emerge over the coming months a year or so. Thanks, Lydia, for the question.

最後，關於你提到的股票回購問題。我認為，就我們將要看到的宏觀經濟形勢而言，我們已經說過、已經指導過並將繼續堅持的是，我們從 CFFO 中分配 40% 到 50% 的利潤是神聖不可侵犯的。我們非常希望能夠繼續保持在這個範圍內。當然，我們已經讓公司具備了這樣的能力，能夠應對未來幾個月到一年左右可能出現的任何經濟衰退。謝謝莉迪亞的提問。

Luke, can we go to the next question, please?

盧克，我們可以進入下一個問題了嗎？

Jason Gabelman, TD Cowen.

Jason Gabelman，TD Cowen。

Yeah. Hey, thanks for taking my questions. I wanted to ask about the outlook for the LNG segment, particularly with LNG Canada ramping up and then Pavilion kicking in. And if I recall correctly, you had mentioned that Pavilion wouldn't really contribute this year. So should we expect to see any uplift from those two items in 4Q and how should those impact results in 2026?

是的。嘿，謝謝你回答我的問題。我想了解一下液化天然氣產業的前景，特別是隨著加拿大液化天然氣計畫逐步推進，以及帕維利翁計畫投入營運。如果我沒記錯的話，你曾說過 Pavilion 今年不會做出任何貢獻。那麼，我們是否應該預期這兩項指標在第四季會帶來任何成長？這些成長又會對 2026 年的業績產生怎樣的影響？

And then my follow-up is just on kind of the resource hopper and at the Investor Day, you had talked about needing more long-cycle liquids in the 2030s, a couple of quarters since that Investor Day. How is the organic opportunity set shaping up to fill that resource hopper versus your outlook for inorganic? Thanks.

然後我的後續問題是關於資源儲備的，在投資者日上，您曾談到在 2030 年代需要更多長週期流動性，而自那次投資者日以來已經過去了幾個季度。您認為有機成長機會如何滿足資源需求？與您對無機成長的展望相比，有機成長機會又如何呢？謝謝。

Thank you very much for that, Jason. I'll take the second question and then ask Sinead to address the first one. Look, briefly, where are we? We have, of course -- we continue to drive what is a strong organic funnel. We've talked in Capital Markets Day around 1 million barrels per day of oil equivalent between now and 2030 to bring online at breakeven prices of just sub $35. And so there is a lot of work to do to be able to bring that across and to be able to drive the outcomes we want from that.

非常感謝你，傑森。我先回答第二個問題，然後請希妮德回答第一個問題。簡單來說，我們現在在哪裡？當然，我們一直在努力——我們持續推動強大的自然成長管道。我們在資本市場日上討論過，從現在到 2030 年，每天大約有 100 萬桶石油當量投入生產，盈虧平衡價格略低於每桶 35 美元。因此，要實現這一目標並推動我們想要的結果，還有很多工作要做。

Beyond that, I spoke at the previous quarterly call around exploration, how we've continued to really sort of tighten the team, get much more focused on the basis where we think we have a competitive advantage, leverage some of the capabilities we have also digital and AI to be able to drive that forward. And I'm pleased with what I'm seeing from that team, and I'll have a bit more to be able to update, hopefully, as we get to Q4 on that.

除此之外，我在上一次季度電話會議上談到了勘探，我們如何繼續真正精簡團隊，更加專注於我們認為具有競爭優勢的領域，並利用我們的一些能力，包括數位化和人工智慧，來推動這一進程。我對團隊目前的表現感到滿意，希望到了第四季度，我能有更多消息與大家分享。

I think in the broader context, we've also done some inorganic moves. We've deepened in Brazil in Gato do Mato as you know. We've deepened in Nigeria, deepwater. Not too long ago, we deepened in Ursa. So we are already moving with some of these bolt-on opportunities to be able to create value, while, of course, continuing to look at other opportunities that are attractive. But like I've said in the past, our bar is high and we will continue to hold ourselves to that high bar to make sure that we are able to generate value for our shareholders from any capital dollars that are spent in that space. Sinead?

我認為從更廣泛的角度來看，我們也進行了一些非有機成長的舉措。如您所知，我們在巴西加托杜馬託的業務已經深入開展。我們在尼日利亞深水區進行了更深入的勘探。不久前，我們深入探索了烏爾薩。因此，我們已經開始著手一些附加機會以創造價值，當然，我們也會繼續尋找其他有吸引力的機會。但正如我過去所說，我們的標準很高，我們將繼續堅持這一高標準，以確保我們能夠從投入該領域的任何資本中為股東創造價值。希妮德？

Indeed. And thanks, Jason. You were asking about the LNG segment or integrated gas for us. We've talked a little bit about the new norm in the previous question as well that came through from Luke -- sorry, from Matt. When we look at that segment, of course, we're looking at both the operational capability and then the trading opportunities that come with it.

的確。謝謝你，傑森。您問的是我們關於液化天然氣業務或綜合天然氣業務的問題。我們在之前盧克（抱歉，是馬特）提出的問題中也稍微談到了新常態。當然，當我們審視這一領域時，我們既要關注其營運能力，也要關注隨之而來的交易機會。

On the operational side, the team is, of course, focusing very hard to make sure that we get all of our assets fully running. And you asked specifically about LNG Canada. And of course, we're more than 13 cargoes, of course, now out on Phase 1 in terms of the first string.

在營運方面，團隊當然正在全力以赴，確保我們所有的資產都能全面運作起來。你特別問到了加拿大液化天然氣計畫。當然，就第一階段而言，我們現在已經運送了超過 13 批貨物。

So what we're looking at there is, of course, is when do we actually ramp up the next train as well. And that will come between now and year-end. So teams focused on that. But of course, as you say, it takes -- it's not the first cargo or the second cargo that matters. It's actually having those up and running fully and therefore, being able to rely on them and have the ability to trade around them. So you're right, that will be more into and the second half of next year.

所以我們現在要考慮的問題，當然是何時才能真正啟動下一班列車。而這將在現在到年底之間發生。所以各隊都把精力集中在這一點上。當然，正如你所說，重要的是——重要的不是第一批貨物或第二批貨物。實際上，關鍵在於讓這些系統全面運行，從而能夠依賴它們並圍繞它們進行交易。所以你說得對，那將更多地發生在明年下半年。

Pavilion very similar. We talked about it last quarter, if you remember, I talked about the fact that we're looking forward to getting those contracts in. We've got everything integrated into the portfolio at the moment, but actually how we manage them and utilize them, we need some of those to roll off and be able to have freedom on those volumes. And that will happen indeed towards the second half of 2026 as well. So we expect to see that coming.

展館非常相似。如果你還記得的話，我們上個季度討論過這個問題，我當時說過我們期待著簽訂這些合約。目前我們已經將所有內容整合到投資組合中，但實際上，我們需要逐步淘汰其中一些，以便能夠更自由地管理這些交易量，從而更好地管理和利用它們。這種情況確實會在 2026 年下半年發生。所以我們預料到這種情況會發生。

Thank you, Sinead. Thank you for the questions, Jason. Luke, let's go to the next question please.

謝謝你，希妮德。謝謝你的提問，傑森。路克，我們進入下一個問題吧。

Martijn Rats, Morgan Stanley.

馬丁‧拉茨，摩根士丹利。

Yeah. Hi, hello. Two questions, if I may. They're -- both a bit about sort of specific line items in the financial statement. I noticed that the line item, underlying OpEx was up sort of 10% year-on-year. And I was wondering what lies behind this. Of course, I know there's inflation in the system, there's inflation, almost everywhere, and it can be hard to fight. But 10% still struck me sort of as a reasonably noteworthy number. Maybe a year ago, this number was just luckily very low for some reason or another, but I was hoping you could say a bit about it.

是的。你好。請問兩個問題。它們都與財務報表中的某些具體項目有關。我注意到，營運支出這一具體項目年增了約 10%。我想知道這背後究竟隱藏著什麼。當然，我知道體制內有通貨膨脹，通貨膨脹幾乎無所不在，而且很難與之抗衡。但10%這個數字仍然讓我覺得相當值得關注。也許一年前，由於某種原因，這個數字幸運地非常低，但我希望你能談談這方面的情況。

The other thing I also wanted to ask you is, could you elaborate a little bit on the sale of the stake in the Colonial pipeline. Because the context around the question is that the trading is clearly very important for Shell that has become more important for Shell as the years has gone by. And I can totally see how an individual pipeline or a pipeline system might not be the highest returning asset. So you could say, okay, part of the disposal program. At the same time, assets like that, I would imagine, are precisely the type of assets that really help the trading business.

我還想問您另一件事，您能否詳細說明一下出售 Colonial 輸油管股份的情況？因為這個問題背後的背景是，貿易對殼牌公司來說顯然非常重要，而且隨著時間的推移，貿易對殼牌公司的重要性越來越大。我完全可以理解為什麼單一管道或管道系統可能不是回報率最高的資產。所以你可以說，好吧，這是處置計劃的一部分。同時，我認為，像這樣的資產正是真正有助於交易業務的資產類型。

So there's probably some sort of trade-off there. And I was wondering how that type of consideration come into discussion about some of the disposals, particularly this one.

所以這其中可能存在某種權衡取捨。我想知道，在討論某些處置方案時，特別是這筆處置方案時，會如何考慮這類因素。

Sure. Thank you for that, Martijn. Do you want to take those two Sinead?

當然。謝謝你，馬丁。你想帶走那兩個希妮德嗎？

Happy to. Thanks, Martijn. Two very different questions, but as you say, into the nitty-gritty of our numbers. On the underlying OpEx, just a couple of things are really flowing through there. What you're seeing, of course, is a combination of, as you say, inflation, although we're doing really well to eat inflation, there's also new assets coming in as well.

樂意之至。謝謝你，馬丁。這是兩個截然不同的問題，但正如你所說，我們需要深入到數字的細節中去探討。就底層營運支出而言，只有少數幾項支出真正順利進行。當然，正如你所說，你現在看到的是通貨膨脹的綜合影響，雖然我們在應對通貨膨脹方面做得非常好，但同時也有新的資產流入市場。

So a lot of that is about phasing. So what you're seeing is the likes of LNG Canada coming in with the full OpEx coming in, of course, because it's also just started up. So you have a lot of those ramp-up costs. You have the same, of course, when you're -- with respect to Chemicals and Monaca, all coming through whilst the platforms are still or the assets are still ramping up as well. So that's two things that come through.

所以很多事情都跟分階段進行有關。所以你現在看到的是像加拿大液化天然氣公司這樣的企業，其全部營運支出也隨之而來，當然，因為它也剛起步。所以你有很多啟動成本。當然，對於 Chemicals 和 Monaca 來說，情況也是如此，所有這些都在平台或資產仍在逐步完善的過程中進行。所以，這是兩點要注意的地方。

We've also been very, very focused -- sorry, on that as they ramp up, of course, you see those big costs hitting, but of course, you don't see the full operational performance yet. So that's one thing. You also have the same in terms of the divestments, there's also phasing around that. Of course, we've not seen the actual impact of all of the divestments coming through yet, so particularly the refinery and chemical plant in Singapore. We, of course, have cost as we handed those over and as we helped and the setup for the buyer the same with Nigeria. So those don't flow through yet as well.

我們也一直非常非常關注——抱歉，是關注這一點——隨著產能的提升，當然，你會看到巨大的成本，但當然，你還看不到完整的營運績效。這是其中一件事。在資產剝離方面也是如此，同樣需要分階段進行。當然，我們還沒有看到所有撤資的實際影響，特別是新加坡的煉油廠和化工廠。當然，我們在移交這些物品以及幫助買家進行設置時也產生了成本，尼日利亞的情況也是如此。所以這些也還沒流過。

So a little bit of that is phasing. And secondly, of course, is in terms of marketing, we've actually had a higher impact in terms of advertising or marketing, very, very focused knowing exactly where we want to make a difference, and that's what you're seeing in terms of some of the marketing performance come through actually very well where we've been able to push some of those premium products, and it's coming out in our actual numbers. But costs are if you do it year-on-year, they're actually the nine month costs are 4% dying at the end of the day. So doing really well and continually driving the team towards that $5 billion to $7 billion target that we gave, which we have no doubt we will be into that range. It's just how fast and how hard we can go. That's the first one on OpEx.

所以這其中一部分是階段性變化。其次，當然是在行銷方面，我們在廣告或行銷方面確實取得了更大的影響力，我們非常非常專注，清楚地知道我們想要在哪裡產生影響，這就是你們在一些行銷業績方面看到的，我們能夠推廣一些高端產品，這在我們的實際數據中也得到了體現。但如果你按年計算成本，實際上九個月的成本是 4%，最終死亡率會達到 4%。所以，我們做得非常好，並且不斷帶領團隊朝著我們設定的 50 億至 70 億美元的目標前進，我們毫不懷疑我們將達到這個目標範圍。關鍵在於我們能跑多快、跑多努力。這是關於營運支出的第一件事。

And it's Colonial Pipeline that you asked. It's a great question, Martijn. We've had this discussion quite a few times about what do we need for our trading business. And from our trading side of things, you've got a bunch of traders who are very focused on the maximizing return and maximizing the use of capital, as you can imagine, which is rather helpful. From their perspective, they look at where are their touch points, where are their control points where they can maximize value.

你問的是殖民地管道公司。馬丁，這是一個很好的問題。我們已經多次討論過我們的貿易業務需要哪些東西。從我們的交易方面來看，我們有很多交易員，他們非常注重最大化收益和最大化資本利用，你可以想像，這非常有幫助。從他們的角度來看，他們會專注於自己的接觸點、控制點在哪裡，從而最大限度地創造價值。

And for us, Colonial was not one of those. So it was just one that was in a long list of assets where they looked at it and said, I can put my capital elsewhere, that was really the rationale behind that, and you'll see small numbers of those come through where you can see us reallocating capital and that's everything about our story at the moment, as you know, is reallocating capital to that best return that we can get. They brought the opportunity to us. We managed to execute it this quarter.

對我們來說，殖民時期並不屬於這種情況。所以，這只是他們眾多資產清單中的一項，他們審視後說，我可以把資金投入其他地方，這才是背後真正的原因。你會看到少量這樣的案例出現，你會看到我們重新配置資金，而這正是我們目前故事的全部，正如你所知，就是將資金重新配置到我們能獲得的最佳回報。他們為我們帶來了機會。我們本季成功完成了這項任務。

And that's a good point. Indeed, it was the traders who brought that opportunity to us. Thank you, Sinead, and thanks for the question, Martijn. Luke, let's go to the next one, please.

你說得很有道理。事實上，正是交易員們為我們帶來了這樣的機會。謝謝你，希妮德，也謝謝你的提問，馬丁。盧克，我們去下一個吧。

Kim Fustier, HSBC.

金·富斯蒂爾，匯豐銀行。

Hi, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. I have two, please. Firstly, on LNG Canada. I wondered if you could give any color on how you're managing the feed gas from Western Canada. So maybe just a rough split between your equity tight gas production versus grid supplies and your ability to shift from one to the other depending on prices?

您好，下午好。謝謝您回答我的問題。我要兩份。首先，關於加拿大液化天然氣計畫。我想請您介紹一下您是如何處理來自加拿大西部的原料氣的。所以，或許可以粗略地劃分一下你的權益型緻密氣產量和電網供應量，以及你根據價格在兩者之間切換的能力？

And the second question is on Chemicals. I wondered if you could give an update on the restructuring of your chemicals business. I also understand that Monaca will have a turnaround in the fourth quarter. So what remains to be done in terms of works at Monaca? Thank you.

第二個問題是關於化學物質的。我想請您介紹一下貴公司化工業務重組的最新進展。我還了解到，莫納卡隊將在第四季度迎來轉機。那麼，莫納卡莊園還有哪些工程需要完成呢？謝謝。

Kim, I'll address both. I think on the first one, of course, we have had in the third quarter a number of days where AECO pricing went negative. And so to step back and remind you of the model, we actually use the Shell trading organization to source feedstock for our equity interest in LNG Canada. And we use on the other side, Shell's trading capability to be able to place those LNG cargo or equity LNG cargoes.

金，這兩個問題我都會回答。我認為，關於第一點，當然，我們在第三季經歷了好幾天的AECO定價為負值的情況。因此，為了回顧這個模式，我們實際上是利用殼牌貿易機構來獲取我們在加拿大液化天然氣公司（LNG Canada）的股權所需的原料。另一方面，我們利用殼牌的交易能力來安排這些液化天然氣貨物或權益液化天然氣貨物。

And so what our traders are doing are -- is looking at what is the best option to be able to create value for the enterprise. And so recently, we got up to roughly 100,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day capacity in Groundbirch, our Canadian feed gas. And we turned down quite a bit of it. We were running at around 70,000 to 75,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day because we could drive quite a bit of the flow coming out of third parties, and it was more -- it was better economics for us to do so.

因此，我們的交易員正在做的，是尋找能為企業創造價值的最佳方案。因此，最近我們在加拿大原料氣礦 Groundbirch 的日產能達到了約 10 萬桶油當量。我們拒絕了其中相當一部分。我們當時的日產量約為 7 萬至 7.5 萬桶石油當量，因為我們可以帶動第三方的大部分原油流量，而且這樣做對我們來說經濟效益更好。

And so I was out in Calgary just a few weeks ago and just sitting in that control room and seeing how those decisions to be able to shut off a well and to be able to source third-party supply are being made on the spot with the traders sitting by the side of the operator to maximize value. Exactly the model I would have liked to see and really looking at how we can create value through that integrated interface between asset and traders in the business. So we'll hopefully continue to see that. And of course, that will ramp up with Train 2, which as Sinead has already said, actually is days away at the moment, and we look forward to the first LNG cargo from that.

所以就在幾週前，我去了卡加利，坐在控制室裡，親眼目睹了那些決定，例如關閉油井和尋找第三方供應，是如何在現場由交易員和操作員一起做出的，目的是為了最大限度地提高價值。這正是我想要看到的模式，它真正關注的是我們如何透過資產和交易員之間的整合介面在業務中創造價值。所以我們希望這種情況能夠持續下去。當然，隨著 2 號生產線的投產，產量將會進一步提升。正如 Sinead 已經說過的那樣，2 號生產線實際上還有幾天就要投產了，我們期待著第一批液化天然氣貨物的到來。

To your second point around chemicals and chemicals update, indeed, I think you touched on Monaca's planned maintenance in the fourth quarter. More work to do to really get ourselves to the point where we are running at full capacity in that asset. But if -- if I maybe take that question, if you don't mind, Kim, and just step back for a moment. We said in Capital Markets Day 2025 that we have $45 billion of capital employed that is underperforming for us. $25 billion of that is sitting in chemicals and $20 billion is sitting in res.

關於您提到的第二個問題，即化學品和化學品更新，的確，我認為您已經提到了莫納卡在第四季度的計劃維護。我們還需要做更多的工作，才能真正使該資產達到滿載運轉狀態。但是——如果我能回答這個問題，如果你不介意的話，金，請你先退後一步。我們在2025年資本市場日上說過，我們有450億美元的已用資本表現不佳。其中250億美元閒置在化工業，200億美元閒置在資源業。

On the chemical side, of course, the deep trough we find ourselves in means that what we have done in terms of the cost take at over the last few years is still not enough to get us into free cash flow neutrality. And I said at the last call that I instructed the team to take the next set of cash preservation measures, which they have now outlined, there's a clear plan to go after them. And we have a trajectory to take out a few hundred million dollars more over the coming months from both the OpEx and CapEx.

當然，在化工方面，我們目前所處的低谷意味著，過去幾年我們在成本控制方面所做的努力仍然不足以使我們實現自由現金流中性。我在上次通話中表示，我已經指示團隊採取下一階段的現金保全措施，他們現在已經制定了明確的追蹤計畫。我們計劃在未來幾個月內從營運支出和資本支出中再節省數億美元。

I don't expect that to sort of feature in Q4 already. And you'll remember, of course, Q4 in both chemicals and products is traditionally a weaker quarter for us. So I don't expect that to flow through. But I do hope to see it coming through in 2026.

我預計這種情況在第四季不會出現。當然，您也應該記得，第四季度，無論是化學品還是產品，對我們來說歷來都是業績較弱的季度。所以我並不指望這種情況會持續下去。但我希望它能在 2026 年實現。

On the other side of it, on the res side, in particular, power where we have the bulk of the capital, we have been doing a lot of work to be able to reshape the nature of the capital employed in that portfolio away from renewable generation capital-intensive assets towards more trading backed assets. You heard yesterday in the news, we will have announced the withdrawal from Atlantic Shores, the offshore wind project in the US. We've sold some of our B2C platforms in the US, including Inspire, and we have also sold out of Cleantech in India, 49% equity interest not to mention the Savion a joint ventures that Sinead mentioned in the video.

另一方面，在再生能源領域，尤其是在我們擁有大部分資本的電力領域，我們一直在努力改變該投資組合中使用的資本性質，使其從可再生能源發電資本密集型資產轉向更多以交易為支撐的資產。昨天新聞裡你們都聽到了，我們將宣布退出美國大西洋海岸離岸風電計畫。我們已經出售了在美國的一些 B2C 平台，包括 Inspire，我們也出售了在印度的 Cleantech 業務，持有 49% 的股權，更不用說 Sinead 在影片中提到的合資企業 Savion 了。

So lots of good progress to start to reallocate that capital and put it into the much more productive share that allows us to get back towards that 10% across our segments that we are aiming to get to. So hopefully, Kim, that gives you just chemicals, but a bit more broadly how we're thinking about that unproductive capital that we have.

因此，在重新分配資本並將其投入到生產效率更高的領域方面取得了許多良好進展，這將使我們能夠恢復到我們力爭在各個業務領域達到的 10% 的目標水平。所以，金，希望這不僅能讓你了解化學品，還能讓你更廣泛地思考我們是如何看待我們所擁有的那些非生產性資本的。

Thank you for that question. Let me now turn Luke to you for the next question, please.

謝謝你的提問。現在請盧克向你提問。

Biraj Borkhataria, RBC.

Biraj Borkhataria，RBC。

Hi, thanks for taking my questions. Two, please. Just going back to LNG Canada. Have there been any further discussions on Phase 2 of the project? And I just wanted to update where we are there. I saw us put on the top of the list for Carney's major project review. So any color that would be helpful.

您好，感謝您回答我的問題。請給我兩個。回到加拿大液化天然氣計畫。關於專案第二階段，是否有任何進一步的討論？我只是想向大家報告我們目前的情況。我看到我們的專案被列入了卡尼主要專案審查名單的首位。所以任何顏色都會有幫助。

And then just on the cancellation of the biofuels project. I'm trying to get a sense of how much of this was project specific? And how much of this was sort of related to your view on the end market and policy risk because obviously, there is elevated policy risk in a bunch of ways right now. The alternative for you is to just keep deploying more capital to the buyback which, obviously, the value proposition is fairly obvious. So just trying to understand how the investment committee is thinking about political risk across the various FIDs you have in the hopper? Thank you.

然後就是生物燃料計畫被取消這件事。我想了解其中有多少是專案特有的？這其中有多少與您對終端市場和政策風險的看法有關？因為很顯然，目前在許多方面都存在著較高的政策風險。另一個選擇是繼續投入更多資金進行股票回購，顯然，其價值主張相當明顯。所以，我只是想了解投資委員會是如何看待你們正在籌備的各個最終投資決定中的政治風險的？謝謝。

Yeah. Thanks for that, Biraj. I'll take the first one and then Sinead, if you want to address the second one. LNG Canada Phase 2, look, I think the biggest things we're keeping an eye on at the moment is the joint venture is working with the various contractors to be able to at least frame a quality decision for us at some point next year and see what that looks like. What are some other important factors that we will have to sort of consider when we get to that decision point.

是的。謝謝你，比拉傑。我先回答第一個問題，然後如果你想回答第二個問題，那就請希妮德回答。LNG Canada 二期項目，你看，我認為我們目前最關注的是合資企業正在與各承包商合作，以便在明年某個時候至少為我們制定一個品質決策，看看結果如何。當我們做出決定時，還有哪些重要因素需要考慮？

Clearly, the support of both the federal and the provincial governments in Canada will be important. And I think as you rightly inferred there, we do see very strong support at the moment, both at the provincial and the federal side. So that's good news. We're very appreciative of that support, and that is enabling for a future investment.

顯然，加拿大聯邦政府和省政府的支持都至關重要。正如你所正確推斷的那樣，我們目前確實看到了來自省和聯邦兩方面的非常強大的支持。這是個好消息。我們非常感謝這份支持，這為我們未來的投資奠定了基礎。

But we're also looking carefully at the broader dynamics. You know our views that we are strong believers in the future of LNG demand through to 2040 and beyond. And we're also conscious of the significant investment that is taking place, the number of FIDs this year, in particular in the US is unprecedented. You're talking of the 70 million tonnes per annum of capacity that's been FID-ed. 60 million is sitting in the US.

但我們也正在仔細研究更廣泛的動態。您知道我們堅信，到 2040 年及以後，液化天然氣的需求將持續成長。我們也意識到正在進行的重大投資，今年的最終投資決定數量，尤其是在美國，是前所未有的。你指的是已經做出最終投資決定的每年7000萬噸產能。其中6000萬噸位於美國。

Now if we then think about future investment opportunities in liquefaction, it is about making sure that we are delivering to the demand destination from the right supply sources. Where Canada features is, of course, they have a transportation advantage vis-a-vis the US it takes 10 days to ship from Canada to Asia versus 25% from the Gulf. So there's an advantage there. And that's why we're trying to understand what that overall balance of new supplies coming in, at least in the medium term and how that features in our broader calculus because not all supply is equal, and we want to make sure that we get access to the best supply for our customers and also cost advantage supply to make sure that they can create value for themselves as well from that.

現在，如果我們考慮液化領域未來的投資機會，關鍵在於確保我們從正確的供應來源向需求目的地提供產品。加拿大的優勢在於其運輸效率，相較於美國，從加拿大到亞洲的運輸時間僅需 10 天，而從海灣地區到亞洲的運輸時間則縮短了 25%。所以這方面是有優勢的。因此，我們正在努力了解新供應的整體平衡情況，至少在中期內，以及這在我們更廣泛的考慮中扮演的角色，因為並非所有供應都相同，我們希望確保能夠為我們的客戶獲得最好的供應，以及具有成本優勢的供應，以確保他們也能從中創造價值。

So lots to consider over the next several months there, Biraj. Sinead?

所以，在接下來的幾個月裡，你有很多事情需要考慮，比拉傑。希妮德？

Thanks, Biraj. Two parts in the way to your question. So first and foremost, about the half a plant and the decision to stop. As you know, when we paused, we paused because we wanted to look at the ability, both internally to execute and ensure that we got something that was -- what we thought was the appropriate return. And then, of course, how we play out broader into the market. We took our time. It's a big decision to make and looked at it in every possible way and decided not at the moment to stop, right decision to be made.

謝謝你，比拉傑。你的問題需要兩個部分才能解答。首先，也是最重要的，是關於那半株植物以及停止生長的決定。如您所知，我們暫停的原因是，我們想審視內部執行能力，並確保我們得到我們認為合適的回報。當然，接下來也要考慮我們如何將業務拓展到更廣泛的市場。我們不慌不忙。這是一個重大的決定，我從各個方面考慮過，最終決定暫時不停止，這是一個正確的決定。

We continue to be very bullish about trading in biofuels in the prompt. But yes, the supply and demand fundamentals should play out further. We need to see how they play. And of course, we do need stable policy. And that's the second part of your comment in a way was about how are we looking at political risk or just policy risk, you could go beyond that.

我們依然非常看好生物燃料的即期交易。但是，供需基本面應該還會繼續發揮作用。我們需要看看他們的表現。當然，我們也需要穩定的政策。從某種意義上說，你評論的第二部分是關於我們如何看待政治風險還是只是政策風險，你還可以更進一步。

You mentioned the investment committee that we have, that we sit on and that we discuss -- we're discussing all of our projects, not only as a stand-alone opportunity as a capital allocation decision, but looking at them in the aggregate. So how much concentration risk do we have to different aspects. And it's exactly as you say, we're not just looking at country. We're looking at themes whether that might be around changing regulatory decisions, et cetera, and making sure that we understand what could go on and how bad could it get or how good could it get? So exactly that, cutting the data in every way we can to inform the best quality capital allocation decision.

您提到了我們擁有的投資委員會，我們參與其中，並進行討論——我們正在討論我們所有的項目，不僅將它們視為獨立的資本配置決策機會，而且還將它們作為一個整體來考慮。那麼，我們在各方面面臨多大的集中風險呢？正如你所說，我們關注的不僅僅是國家。我們正在研究一些主題，例如監管決策的變化等等，並確保我們了解可能會發生什麼，情況會變得多糟糕，或者會變得多好？所以，我們正是要從各方面對數據進行篩選，以便做出最高品質的資本配置決策。

Thanks for the question, Biraj. Luke, next question please.

謝謝你的提問，比拉傑。盧克，請問下一個問題。

Doug Leggate, Wolfe Research.

道格‧萊格特，沃爾夫研究公司。

Thank you. Good morning, or good afternoon, guys. Good morning from Houston. While I wonder what's the path back to profitability for the Chemicals business? And I'm wondering, is the Chemicals business -- should we consider it core for Shell going forward? That's my first question. And my quick follow-up. I don't know if you're able to talk to this.

謝謝。各位早安/下午好。休斯頓早安。我不禁思考，化工業要如何才能重回獲利軌道？我想知道，化工業務——我們是否應該將其視為殼牌未來發展的核心業務？這是我的第一個問題。我的後續簡報如下。我不知道你是否能和這個對話。

But obviously, one of your large peers had a different outcome with Venture Global, is there any recourse for Shell to revisit the arbitration that you had? What's the path forward for that as well? Thank you.

但顯然，你們的一家大型同業公司 Venture Global 的仲裁​​結果與你們不同，殼牌是否有辦法重新審理你們的仲裁案件？那麼，下一步該如何走呢？謝謝。

Thanks for that, Doug. Let me take both of those, starting with the Venture Global one. I think first, just to say deeply disappointed in the outcome of the arbitration tribunal, and we have a lot to reflect on and to learn, if I'm honest, in terms of how we can do -- to do better, because we deeply believe in our case, and we need to be able to continue to explore all pathways to protect our rights. And that is something, of course, we're looking at. So let me just leave it there out for now.

謝謝你，道格。讓我來看看這兩份報告，先從 Venture Global 的那份開始。首先，我想說我對仲裁庭的裁決結果深感失望。坦白說，我們有很多需要反思和學習的地方，例如如何做得更好，因為我們深信我們的案件有理有據，我們需要繼續探索所有途徑來保護我們的權利。當然，這也是我們正在關注的問題。我就先說到這裡吧。

On the path back to profitability for Chems, I would firstly just acknowledge once again the depth of the trough that we find ourselves in. And that's been just very challenging to navigate. We have already been working on a reduction of OpEx over a number of years, but it is just not enough. We were hoping that this is a typical cycle, and therefore, we would see the upside sooner than we are seeing it at the moment. We just don't see a line of sight to when that up cycle is going to come.

在化工產業重回獲利軌道的道路上，我首先要再次承認我們目前所處的低谷有多麼深。而這確實很難應付。多年來，我們一直在努力降低營運成本，但這還遠遠不夠。我們原本希望這是一個典型的周期，因此，我們本應比現在更早看到上漲行情。我們看不到經濟復甦週期何時到來的跡象。

And therefore, we have decided to really go after that cash preservation that I mentioned. The path towards free cash flow neutrality is squeezing more out of the OpEx juice and more out of CapEx. And that's where my previous reference to hundreds of millions more that we would look to be able to take out in the coming months to be able to at least get back to -- to stopping the bleeding from that unit. And I know my team is very, very focused on doing that, the plan has been established and now we're going into execution mode to be able to affect that. Thanks for the questions, Doug. Luke, next questions, please.

因此，我們決定真正著手實現我之前提到的現金儲備目標。實現自由現金流中立的途徑是：從營運支出和資本支出中榨取更多利潤。這就是我之前提到的，我們希望在未來幾個月內再拿出數億美元來至少恢復到——止住該部門的虧損。我知道我的團隊非常非常專注於此，計劃已經制定，現在我們正在進入執行階段，以便能夠實現這一目標。謝謝你的提問，道格。盧克，請問下一個問題。

Christopher Kuplent, Bank of America.

克里斯多福‧庫普倫特，美國銀行。

Yeah, thank you for taking my questions. In the same vein, perhaps. Can you comment on renewables and where you see the role here, considering where the M&A market is, the PPA market, where do you see capital allocation and opportunities perhaps. Just quoting one example is not just a gigawatts, but it's also your JV in Brazil that's crying out for fresh equity injections. So how do you feel about adding more commitments into that overall, I suppose, low carbon area.

是的，謝謝你回答我的問題。或許是出於同樣的道理。您能否就再生能源及其在併購市場和購電協議市場中的作用發表一些看法？您認為資本配置和機會在哪裡？僅僅舉一個例子，不只是幾千兆瓦，而是你在巴西的合資企業也急需新的股權注資。那麼，您對在低碳領域增加更多承諾有何看法？

And as a second brief mop-up question, could you give us an update on the Venezuela and Trinidad situation and how you so far have been dealing with that? Thank you.

第二個簡短的總結性問題，您能否介紹一下委內瑞拉和特立尼達的局勢，以及您目前是如何應對的？謝謝。

Thanks for that, Christopher. Let me take the second one and then ask Sinead to address the first one. On the second one, clearly, worrying. Our first focus is our staff and the well-being of our staff in case the situation escalates, which we hope it doesn't. Clearly, the Dragon license, which was granted by OFAC to the Trinidad and Tobago government, through which, of course, Shell would be implementing that license. We still have to figure out exactly what's happening there.

謝謝你，克里斯多福。讓我先回答第二個問題，然後請希妮德回答第一個問題。第二個問題，顯然令人擔憂。我們首要關注的是員工及其福祉，以防情況升級，但我們希望這種情況不會升級。顯然，龍礦開採許可證是由美國財政部外國資產控制辦公室 (OFAC) 授予特立尼達和多巴哥政府的，殼牌公司當然會透過該許可證來實施該開採活動。我們還需要弄清楚那裡究竟發生了什麼事。

So we're assessing the situation closely, working with the government in Trinidad and Tobago and making sure that we are able to then determine how to move forward. But I'd say, very early days to be able to judge exactly how this will play out, and we are on a wait and see mode at the moment to see what happens. Sinead?

因此，我們正在密切評估情況，與特立尼達和多巴哥政府合作，確保我們能夠確定下一步的行動方案。但我認為，現在判斷事情最終會如何發展還為時過早，我們目前只能靜觀其變。希妮德？

Indeed. And thank you, Christopher. In terms of renewables, as you remember, when we talked about renewables in Capital Markets Day, we talked about our role in it and how we would play. And there's two aspects to your question because you brought in both biofuels and, of course, the gigawatts, the electrons side of it. So looking at both in unison there.

的確。謝謝你，克里斯多福。關於再生能源，您可能還記得，我們​​在資本市場日討論可再生能源時，談到了我們在其中的角色以及我們將如何發揮作用。你的問題有兩面，因為你提到了生物燃料，當然還有千兆瓦級的電力，也就是電子方面。所以，讓我們同時看待這兩者。

In terms of the biofuels side, I talked a little bit about half of our view on let's see where supply and demand goes to into the future and about where we see the sort of trading in the prompt you alluded to, of course, a joint venture or a company that we are invested in, in Brazil as well. Of course, it's a listed company, so I always look to the company to speak for itself.

就生物燃料方面而言，我稍微談到了我們對未來供需走向的看法，以及我們認為您提到的那種交易方式，當然，還有我們在巴西投資的合資企業或公司。當然，它是一家上市公司，所以我總是希望公司自己能說明一切。

But just priority is there for them to look at really all of the different options that they have in terms of the turnaround and to ensure it's value accretive, and we see their management team doing a superb job on that as well. So making sure it's aligned with all of our goals as well.

但對他們來說，首要任務是認真考慮所有不同的扭虧為盈方案，並確保扭虧為盈能夠提升公司價值，我們看到他們的管理團隊在這方面也做得非常出色。所以也要確保它與我們所有的目標保持一致。

Moving back on to the electron side for a moment, and you talked about the gigawatts aspect there. What you can see us doing, of course, and what we talked about was moving from being 80% in producing assets or solar wind, different aspects like that, and 20% in trading and shifting that focus between now and sort of 2030 much more towards 20% into the producing assets and 80% into the trading side.

讓我們再回到電子方面，你剛才提到了吉瓦級的功率。當然，你們可以看到我們正在做的事情，也是我們討論過的，就是將目前 80% 的業務集中在生產資產或太陽能、風能等不同領域，20% 的業務集中在交易領域，並將重點從現在到 2030 年左右更多地轉移到 20% 的業務集中在生產資產，80% 的業務集中在交易領域。

That continues to move forward. While talk to a number of those different actual capital reallocation that's occurred, whether that was around Cleantech that he mentioned, and Savion, of course, the opportunity where we actually diluted our stake in some of the producing fields of the solar fields and actually kept the electrons. And that's about really where is our strategy going to.

這一進程仍在繼續推進。在與一些人談論已經發生的各種不同的實際資本重新配置時，無論是他提到的清潔技術，還是Savion，當然還有我們實際上稀釋了在一些太陽能發電場中的股份並保留了電力的機會。這就是我們戰略的真正方向。

It's making sure that from a strategy point of view, we're very much focused on considering how can trading maximize the value from the flow, and that's what you see us doing. We continue to look for opportunities in things like gas-fired combined cycle power plants as well. You saw us do one of those last year. And of course, we continue with some of the battery investments we're doing as well. So that process continues and really good progress, I would say, well.

從策略角度來看，我們非常注重考慮如何透過交易來最大化資金流的價值，而這正是你們所看到的我們正在做的。我們也會繼續尋找諸如燃氣聯合循環發電廠等領域的機會。去年你們看過我們做過一次。當然，我們也持續進行一些電池的投資。所以這個過程仍在繼續，而且進展非常順利，可以說。

Yeah. Thanks, Sinead. Christopher, thank you for those questions. Luke, next question please.

是的。謝謝你，希妮德。克里斯多福，謝謝你的提問。盧克，請問下一個問題。

Michele Della Vigna, Goldman Sachs.

米歇爾·德拉·維尼亞，高盛。

Thank you, and congratulations on all of the rejuvenation of your E&P portfolio through all of the FIDs and stake increases in the last year. I wanted to say really on that topic. And I wanted to ask you, what do you think is the scale of inorganic investment that you'll need to continue this 1% hydrocarbon production growth well into the next decade? And if there's any area in your portfolio and particularly that you would like to deepen in scale? Thank you.

謝謝，並祝賀您在過去一年中通過所有最終投資決定和增持股份，使您的勘探與生產投資組合煥然一新。我其實想就這個話題說幾句。我想問您，您認為要讓油氣產量在未來十年內繼續保持 1% 的成長，需要多大規模的非有機投資？如果您的投資組合中有任何領域，特別是您希望擴大規模的領域，那麼請繼續閱讀。謝謝。

Yeah. Thank you, Michele, for that question. I think -- thank you for the recognition on what already has been, I think, a successful strategy of bolt-ons, focusing on areas where we do have competitive advantage. And actually, in all of them, where we ourselves operate and so it is deepening of our existing interests. I mentioned earlier, some of the potential headwinds that we see coming into 2026 on oil prices, for example.

是的。謝謝米歇爾的提問。我認為——感謝你們對我們目前採取的附加策略的認可，我認為這種策略已經取得了成功，即專注於我們擁有競爭優勢的領域。事實上，在所有這些領域，我們自己都在開展業務，因此，這加深了我們現有的利益。我之前提到過，例如，到 2026 年，我們可能會看到石油價格方面出現一些不利因素。

And of course, we have been positioning the company over the last few years through cost reductions, performance enhancements, portfolio high grading. For the specific moment to be able to actually be resilient through a potential downturn. And what we have been doing, of course, is preferentially allocating distribution capital to our buybacks.

當然，過去幾年我們一直在透過降低成本、提高績效、優化投資組合來提升公司形象。能夠在特定時刻真正具備抵禦潛在經濟衰退的能力。當然，我們一直在做的，是優先將分配資金用於股票回購。

And so in a world where there might be softness in the future, I think it creates real opportunities for us, both on the buyback side, but also to look at other inorganic opportunities, which, by the way, over the last several months, we have seen more of those come through our desk, albeit none of them at an attractive enough level to be able to cross that high bar. But I really hope we get to see some good opportunities come through in 2026.

因此，在未來可能出現疲軟的市場環境下，我認為這為我們創造了真正的機會，無論是在股票回購方面，還是在其他非有機成長機會方面。順便說一句，在過去的幾個月裡，我們看到了更多這樣的機會，儘管沒有一個機會的吸引力足夠大，能夠跨越那道高門檻。但我真心希望我們在 2026 年能看到一些好的機會出現。

I'm not going to give a particular scale of opportunity because at the end of the day, what we have said and what I've said in the past that we've maintained is we want to be value driven. We want to look at the right opportunities and make sure that we are creating shareholder value using free cash flow per share accretion as an important north star for us. And so we will be pragmatic in the approach we take as we look at these opportunities. We know that between now and 2030, the requirement to be able to sort of maintain liquids flat we've, by and large, we're almost there. So this is not about 2030 where we have high confidence.

我不會給出具體的機會規模，因為歸根結底，我們過去和現在都堅持的理念是，我們希望以價值為導向。我們希望尋找合適的機遇，並確保我們能夠創造股東價值，而每股自由現金流的成長是我們重要的指路明燈。因此，在看待這些機會時，我們將採取務實的態度。我們知道，從現在到 2030 年，要實現保持液體平放的要求，我們基本上已經接近實現了。所以，我們並不是對2030年充滿信心。

It's about building that funnel for the 2035-plus where we indicated in the Capital Markets Day chart that there was a gap of somewhere in the range of 350,000 barrels a day and which we hope to be able to fill organically and where it makes sense inorganically. And so we will continue to position ourselves for that and continue to make sure that we create -- or that we make the best choices from a capital allocation perspective on behalf of our shareholders.

關鍵在於為 2035 年及以後建立一個管道，我們在資本市場日圖表中指出，每天存在約 35 萬桶的缺口，我們希望能夠透過有機成長來填補這一缺口，並在合理的情況下透過無機成長來填補。因此，我們將繼續為此做好準備，並繼續確保我們代表股東從資本配置的角度做出最佳選擇。

Indeed. And I think that's the opportunity that we have well because actually, we're in the best place to do it in the sense of a very healthy balance sheet at the moment. So gearing is healthy, as you know. I mean, we've talked about it before, it's below 19% as of today. And of course, it came down this quarter.

的確。我認為這就是我們所擁有的機會，因為就目前而言，我們擁有非常健康的資產負債表，處於最適合做這件事的位置。所以，如你所知，合適的齒輪比是有益的。我的意思是，我們之前也討論過這個問題，截至今天，這個比例低於 19%。當然，這季度它下降了。

It does oscillate up and down. And that's what we talked about. We're very comfortable with that ability to take it up or down. And you've seen us leaning on the balance sheet from time to time. You've seen us leaning on the balance sheet sometimes for distributions.

它會上下波動。這就是我們討論的內容。我們非常樂意承擔這種升降重任。你們也看到我們時不時會動用資產負債表。你們可能已經看到我們有時會依靠資產負債表來進行分配。

This quarter, we didn't have to, but we have done so in previous quarters. We're very comfortable with that And if you look at where our gearing has actually been, it's actually range between sort of 10% and 30% over time. So comfortable where it is today. Those moments when we have to lean in it, we can lean on it for a variety of things, whether it's distribution, as you said or inorganic. And of course, we will see debt as a result move.

本季我們不必這樣做，但前幾個季度我們都這樣做過。我們對此非常滿意。如果你看看我們實際的槓桿率，你會發現它一直保持在 10% 到 30% 之間。現在的生活狀態很舒適。在我們需要依靠它的時候，我們可以依靠它來做很多事情，無論是像你所說的分銷，還是無機物生產。當然，債務也會因此而增加。

And actually, I would expect, of course, our gearing to our debt, net debt to go up next quarter, largely because what do I see? I see that sort of Q4 being one of those quarters where we always have some unusuals coming through.

實際上，我當然預計下個季度我們的債務槓桿（淨債務）將會上升，主要是因為我看到了什麼？我認為第四季通常是那種會出現一些特殊情況的季度。

So we've had really strong performance from our Upstream and Integrated Gas business. The performance is superb this quarter, and that's actually helped us to be able to deliver on just bringing that net debt down. But of course, for Q4, I think everyone's getting boring of -- bored of me talking about this, but we have those unusuals that come through. So those unusuals are quite a broad range, but they add up to several billion, whether it's the German and US biofuels and certificates, the emission certificates payments that come through the German mineral oil tax, et cetera, but it adds up to a couple of billion, of course, next quarter.

因此，我們的上游和一體化天然氣業務表現非常強勁。本季業績非常出色，這實際上幫助我們實現了降低淨債務的目標。當然，到了第四季度，我想大家都會對我談論這個話題感到厭倦，但我們還是會遇到一些不尋常的情況。所以這些不尋常的收入範圍很廣，但加起來有數十億，無論是德國和美國的生物燃料和證書，還是透過德國礦物油稅獲得的排放證書付款等等，加起來當然有幾十億，下個季度也是如此。

And of course, beyond that, what we also see is the ability to have some of those opportunities, which help push up our CapEx levels a little bit into that quarter. And of course, at the same time, we see downstream typically being a little bit weaker in Q4. The data book says it all. You can go back and look at the last couple of years and see Q4 coming through as well on that, and it's really twofold. It's two different stories.

當然，除此之外，我們也看到了一些機會，這些機會有助於在該季度稍微提高我們的資本支出水準。當然，同時，我們看到下游業務在第四季度通常會略顯疲軟。數據手冊上已經說明了一切。你可以回顧過去幾年，看看第四季的情況，這其實是雙重的。這是兩個不同的故事。

One is chemicals and products, which is normally trading-related where it's a bit weaker into the quarter. And of course, we have a few turnarounds which were mentioned earlier by one of your colleagues will also hit in Q4 as well. But then, of course, on our marketing. Marketing has been doing superbly well. But of course, Q2 and Q3 are driving season. So it is seasonality coming into Q4, where you would see it be a little bit weaker.

一是化學品和產品，通常與貿易相關，在季度初會略顯疲軟。當然，我們還有一些轉機，正如你們一位同事之前提到的，也將在第四季實現。當然，接下來也要考慮我們的行銷。行銷工作做得非常出色。當然，第二季和第三季是汽車銷售旺季。所以這是季節性因素造成的，進入第四季後，你會看到它稍微疲軟一些。

So I look forward to in Q4 making sure that our performance is good, understanding that those items will drive down some of the cash flow and looking forward to seeing whether what opportunities we have as well, including potentially working capital build, depending on where the macro is, but that links back exactly to where you were going to, which is we have the balance sheet available to actually lean on for whether it's distribution or whether it's to lean on for inorganic opportunities as well. So yeah.

因此，我期待在第四季度確保我們的業績良好，也明白這些項目會減少一些現金流，同時期待看看我們有哪些機會，包括潛在的營運資本積累，這取決於宏觀經濟形勢。但這與您剛才所說的正好相關，那就是我們擁有充足的資產負債表，可以依靠它進行分銷，也可以依靠它來尋求非有機成長機會。是的。

Thank you very much, Sinead. And thank you for the question, Michele. Let's go to the next question, please, Luke.

非常感謝你，希妮德。謝謝你的提問，米歇爾。路克，我們進入下一個問題吧。

Josh Stone, UBS.

瑞銀集團的喬許史東。

Yeah, thanks and good afternoon. A couple of questions. One, just following up to date on the fourth quarter. Thanks for taking us through all those building blocks, particularly on the Integrated Gas because in an earlier question, at this time, you're sounding quite conservative. And yet I look liquefaction volumes should be up. Why would the ramp-up of those volumes not help you optimize margins in the fourth quarter?

好的，謝謝，下午好。幾個問題。第一，跟進一下第四季的最新情況。感謝您為我們詳細講解了所有這些組成部分，特別是關於綜合天然氣的部分，因為在先前的提問中，您此時的觀點聽起來相當保守。然而，我認為液化量應該會增加。為什麼提高產量不能幫助你在第四季優化利潤率？

Are there other things in integrated gas we should be aware of? And can you just remind us where we are on the hedging impact there and the potential headwind there that was inside these numbers this quarter?

在天然氣一體化領域，還有其他需要注意的事項嗎？您能否提醒我們一下，目前對沖效應以及本季這些數據中可能存在的不利因素處於什麼狀態？

And then second question on Namibia, there were some headlines earlier in the summer that you're expecting to resume exploration drilling next year in the midyear. So -- can you talk a little bit about what areas you're thinking about targeting? And maybe just more generally, your willingness to add more capital to this country, given what you know so far about the basin. Thanks.

第二個問題是關於納米比亞的，今年夏天早些時候有一些新聞報道稱，你們預計將於明年年中恢復勘探鑽井。那麼—您能談談您打算重點關注哪些領域嗎？更普遍地說，鑑於你目前對該盆地的了解，你是否願意向這個國家投入更多資金。謝謝。

Josh, I'll take the second one and ask Sinead to address the first one. On Namibia, indeed, we -- like we said in the past, we had -- we like the volumes we found. We were challenged by the high gas oil ratios and of course, just the movability of the fluid. And so -- what we have also been doing is just spending time to really understand what our appraisal program has resulted with the subsurface data points we have, not just ours, but also leaning on what others have been doing in the basin to be able to maximize our knowledge set.

喬希，我來處理第二個問題，第一個問題請希妮德解答。關於納米比亞，的確，就像我們過去說過的那樣，我們很喜歡我們找到的那些卷冊。我們面臨的挑戰是高油氣比，當然還有流體的流動性。因此，我們一直在做的，就是花時間真正了解我們的評估程序利用我們擁有的地下數據點得出的結果，不僅是我們自己的數據點，還要藉鑑盆地內其他人所做的工作，以最大限度地提高我們的知識水平。

We continue to have appetite, of course, to invest in Namibia, but it's going to have to be at a level where it meets our high hurdles for investment opportunities. And so we are very willing to invest in an appraisal well for a new horizon if we have an investable case for it, and that's what the team is assessing at the moment. And we should be in a position to be able to decide that in the coming weeks.

我們當然仍然有興趣投資納米比亞，但投資規模必須達到我們設定的高標準才能吸引投資機會。因此，如果我們有合理的投資理由，我們非常願意投資開發一口新的評估井，以開拓新的前景，而這正是團隊目前正在評估的內容。我們應該能夠在未來幾週內做出決定。

More broadly, I would say, we continue to look at those options for basins where we think we can be differentiated in the way that we are able to play in that basin. For example, in deepwater, where we can leverage our knowledge of the North Atlantic to be able to potentially create opportunities like the well we're drilling at the moment in Sao Tome and like other wells we're drilling as well in the Gulf of America. So looking forward to continuing to see what comes out of that. Sinead?

更廣泛地說，我認為，我們會繼續關注那些我們認為可以在特定盆地中以不同方式進行開發的盆地。例如，在深水區，我們可以利用我們對北大西洋的了解，創造潛在的機會，就像我們目前正在聖多美鑽探的油井，以及我們在美洲灣鑽探的其他油井一樣。非常期待接下來的發展。希妮德？

Indeed. And thank you, Josh. So back to Integrated Gas. No, you're absolutely right in the sense that when we talk about the normal, we're always talking about whether we can deliver higher operational performance and then what opportunities we can find in the market as well beyond that. So when I look at Q4, indeed, we're looking at strong operational performance.

的確。謝謝你，喬許。所以，我們還是回到綜合瓦斯上來。不，你說的完全正確，當我們談論正常情況時，我們總是在談論我們能否實現更高的營運績效，以及除此之外我們還能在市場上找到哪些機會。所以，當我審視第四季時，確實看到了強勁的營運表現。

So we're looking at the team doing what they've said they're going to do and making sure they continue on the ramp-up of LNG Canada and other assets. But then we're looking at what do we see in terms of the availability of those lengths, so hopefully, we will have some. But in terms of the arbs and what are the opportunities to be able to trade around those.

所以我們正在觀察團隊是否按照他們所說的去做，並確保他們繼續推動加拿大液化天然氣專案和其他資產的產能提升。但接下來我們要來看看這些長度的貨源狀況，希望我們能有一些貨源。但就套利而言，有哪些機會可以利用這些機會進行交易呢？

What I was mentioning earlier on was that we're seeing some of it at the moment, but less in Q4 than we did in Q3. So there is that sort of notice board. Those are closing at the moment, and you can talk about Brent versus Henry Hub and also it's a fun item there, but it is closing a little bit.

我之前提到的是，我們目前確實看到了一些這種情況，但第四季的情況比第三季少。所以這裡有個這樣的公告欄。這些目前都在關閉中，你可以談談布倫特和亨利樞紐，這也是個有趣的話題，但它正在逐漸關閉。

You also mentioned then the impact in terms of the runoff by the way, in terms of the losses of the legacy positions. So I think I've positioned probably back almost a year ago, but I said we'd run through 2025. We're still seeing those legacy positions expire over this year. That impact is less pronounced than it was at the start of the year. That's just some really good work from the trading team in terms of effective risk management, but you will see that in Q4 as well.

順便一提，您當時也提到了後續影響，以及遺留職位的損失。所以我覺得我大概在一年前就確定了位置，但我說過我們會一直運作到 2025 年。今年我們仍然會看到這些遺留職位陸續到期。這種影響不如年初時那麼明顯。這充分體現了交易團隊在有效風險管理方面的出色工作，但您將在第四季度也看到這一點。

So looking to see what can we actually capture upside in the portfolio in terms of both net length and what's in the market as well? But of course, there is weakness versus downstream versus where integrated gas is. So as I outlined earlier, we're expecting to see downstream being weaker than it was in Q3 versus integrated gas, where we would not see it be able to capture some of the opportunities that we have seen this quarter, but we're looking at strong operational performance as well. So it's a tale of two halves there.

所以，我們想看看，就淨多頭部位和市場狀況而言，我們究竟能在投資組合中獲得哪些實際收益？當然，與下游一體化天然氣產業相比，下游產業存在一些劣勢。正如我之前概述的那樣，我們預計下游業務在第三季度將比綜合天然氣業務疲軟，無法抓住本季度我們看到的一些機遇，但我們也看到了強勁的營運業績。所以，這可以看成是一個分成兩個部分的故事。

Thanks, Sinead. Thanks for the questions, as well there, Josh. Luke, let's go to the next question, please.

謝謝你，希妮德。謝謝你的提問，喬希。路克，我們進入下一個問題吧。

Alastair Syme, Citi.

花旗集團的阿拉斯泰爾·西姆。

Thanks. While coming back on the portfolio because it seems you get a lot of questions on this now. Look, I've made the observation that the industry as a whole looks like it's delevered in the cycle. So I get your point about looking for opportunities in a down cycle. But I'm wondering if you think this down cycle needs to be quite deep for those opportunities to really emerge that you need?

謝謝。再次回到投資組合這個主題，因為現在似乎有很多關於這方面的問題。你看，我觀察到整個產業似乎在這個週期中已經去槓桿化了。所以我明白了你說的在經濟下行週期尋找機會的觀點。但我很好奇，您是否認為這次經濟下行週期需要持續相當長的時間，您所需要的那些機會才會真正出現？

And then the sort of the second part of this is do you think these new positions -- or do you think there'll be new positions in geographies? Or do you think that ultimately Shell can add more value by deepening in existing positions? Thank you.

那麼，問題的第二部分是，你認為這些新職位——或者說，你認為地理領域會出現新的職位嗎？或者您認為，殼牌最終可以透過加深現有投資來創造更多價值？謝謝。

Alastair, thank you for those questions. Look, I think who knows exactly how things play out. But what is clear is if I compare where we have been over the last few months to say, one or two years ago. We are getting a lot more proposals that are interesting, though, like I said earlier, not yet meeting that high bar that we hold ourselves to. That tells you that expectations of breakeven points around some of these transactions have come down from what maybe we had seen a year, 1.5 years ago.

阿拉斯泰爾，謝謝你的提問。你看，我覺得誰也說不準事情最終會如何發展。但顯而易見的是，如果我將過去幾個月我們所處的位置與一兩年前的情況進行比較。雖然我們收到了很多有趣的提案，但正如我之前所說，這些提案還沒有達到我們自己設定的高標準。這說明，人們對其中一些交易的損益平衡點的預期已經比一年前、一年半前看到的要低。

How far they come down? Question mark. We are, of course, looking at long-term strategic imperatives. We see ourselves as we look into the 2030s, we continue to see an important role for crude, and we continue to see ourselves one thing to have a portfolio that's able to serve our customers as we do as well for LNG. And so what we will continue to do is look at those opportunities that create long-term value, and they need to be at a price point that is interesting enough for us.

它們能下降到多低？問號。我們當然是在著眼於長期的戰略要務。展望 2030 年代，我們仍然認為原油將發揮重要作用，我們也仍然認為，擁有一個能夠像服務液化天然氣客戶一樣服務客戶的投資組合至關重要。因此，我們將繼續尋找那些能夠創造長期價值的機會，而這些機會的價格必須足以吸引我們。

Now exactly where we play typically, I'd say we want to look at where we can create incremental value beyond what the current owners can do, in particular, if you want to have to pay a premium for it. And so -- and that's why I talk about the high bar partly it's because of the price point and partly because it is not easy to be able to justify M&A, in particular, when it has to compare where it has to compete against the alternative of buybacks.

至於我們通常會在哪裡進行遊戲，我想說，我們希望尋找能夠創造超出現有所有者所能創造的增量價值的地方，特別是如果你願意為此支付溢價的話。所以——這就是我為什麼說門檻很高的原因，部分原因是價格，部分原因是併購並不容易證明其合理性，尤其是在必須與股票回購這種替代方案進行比較時。

And so what we're trying to do is to keep that tension in. And if it is affiliated with one of our existing positions, then there's much more likelihood we can create incremental value out of it, in particular now that we have really addressed some of the performance issues in the strength of our portfolio, like in deepwater, like an integrated gas, like in marketing. Those areas where we believe we have a comparative advantage are firing on not all cylinders yet but on many cylinders. And while we know we have a lot more to do, we think we can now create more value out of some of those assets that others hold than maybe what they hold. The question is whether we can get to a price point that's attractive enough to transact.

所以我們現在想做的就是保持這種緊張感。如果它與我們現有的某個持股有關，那麼我們就更有可能從中創造增量價值，尤其是在我們已經真正解決了投資組合實力方面的一些業績問題之後，例如深水業務、綜合天然氣業務和市場營銷業務。我們認為自身俱有比較優勢的那些領域，雖然還沒有完全發揮出全部潛力，但已經取得了長足的進步。雖然我們知道還有很多工作要做，但我們認為現在我們可以利用其他人持有的一些資產創造比他們持有的更大的價值。問題是，我們能否找到一個足夠有吸引力的價格點，從而促成​​交易。

Let me ask you, Luke, then for the next question please.

那麼，盧克，請容許我問你下一個問題。

Peter Low, Rothschild & Co Redburn.

Peter Low，羅斯柴爾德公司，雷德伯恩。

Hi, thanks. And maybe just one more on Upstream. You took FID on the HI gas project in Nigeria in the quarter. It's the sort of project we don't necessarily have great visibility on from the outside. I was wondering if you could give some examples of any other projects you're maturing at the moment that could potentially reach FID in the next 12 months or so? Thanks.

您好，謝謝。或許還可以再寫一篇關於 Upstream 的文章。本季您對尼日利亞的HI天然氣專案做出了最終投資決策。這類項目我們從外部不一定能很好地了解情況。我想請問您能否舉例說明一下，您目前正在推進的其他項目是否有可能在未來 12 個月左右達到最終投資決定 (FID)？謝謝。

Thank you for that question. I'll say a few words and please pitch in Sinead as well if you want to. So HI is one of those projects which will feed into Nigeria LNG our equity interest, and there's one or two of those behind as well that we are looking to mature to be able to grow the potential feedstock into Nigeria LNG. That, of course, builds on the Bonga North opportunity. And just even staying within that space, there is the potential one day for Bonga Southwest, which would be a new FPSO in Nigeria and therefore creating an exciting opportunity for us to grow there.

謝謝你的提問。我先說幾句，Sinead，如果你願意的話，也請你發言。因此，HI 是將為我們在尼日利亞液化天然氣項目（Nigeria LNG）的股權提供原料的項目之一，此外還有一兩個類似的項目，我們正在努力使其成熟，以便能夠增加尼日利亞液化天然氣項目的潛在原料供應。當然，這建立在 Bonga North 的發展機會之上。即使只在這個領域內，未來有一天，Bonga Southwest 計畫也具有發展潛力，這將是尼日利亞的新的 FPSO，從而為我們在那裡的發展創造令人興奮的機會。

In places like Brazil, what we're seeing at the moment is the opportunity to be able to develop a new hub like Gato do Mato, which we FID-ed recently, but also given the massive license that sits in the 2P field, as an example, there are opportunities there to be able to look beyond and that's what the team is looking at in Mero, in 2P, what can we do to be able to maximize production out of those. And those could be very interesting opportunities to tie back.

在巴西等地，我們目前看到的是有機會開發像 Gato do Mato 這樣的新中心，我們最近已經做出了最終投資決定。此外，考慮到 2P 油田的龐大油氣資源，例如，我們有機會放眼更廣闊的領域。這就是 Mero 團隊在 2P 油田所關注的，我們可以做些什麼來最大限度地提高這些油氣資源的產量。這些可能是非常有趣的聯繫契機。

There are opportunities as well that we continue to mature in the Gulf of America, tiebacks to existing facilities. One specific facility we're looking at how we can beef up is Appomattox. We have ullage there. We have capacity, which we are in the process of developing some opportunities to be able to go after. Ursa and Mars are other opportunities we look at.

我們在美洲灣也擁有不斷成熟的機會，例如與現有設施的回接。我們正在研究如何加強阿波馬托克斯工廠的建設。那裡有積水。我們有能力，目前正在開發一些機會來抓住這些機會。大熊座和火星也是我們正在考慮的目標。

And then you can go to places like Oman, where we continue to look to bring some FIDs through -- they're more localized FIDs. We're talking sub 20,000 barrels per day each one. But as you add them up, they are part of that funnel that I referred to earlier, which when you add it all up, it gets you to the 1 million barrels plus per -- of oil equivalent per day at those sub-$35 breakevens. And so Peter, there are many of those opportunities that we continue to be able to bring into the portfolio. And to be honest, that create the most value for our shareholders at the end of the day.

然後你可以去像阿曼這樣的地方，我們繼續努力在那裡引入一些最終投資決定——它們是更具地方性的最終投資決定。我們說的是每艘船每天產量低於 2 萬桶。但當你把它們加起來，它們就成了我之前提到的那個漏斗的一部分，當你把它們全部加起來，就能達到每天每桶100萬桶以上的石油當量，而盈虧平衡點低於35美元。所以彼得，我們能夠繼續把很多這樣的機會納入投資組合。坦白說，這最終將為我們的股東創造最大的價值。

Anything you want to add, Sinead?

希妮德，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

I think that was well.

我覺得那樣很好。

Good. Thank you. Luke, let's go to the next question, please.

好的。謝謝。路克，我們進入下一個問題吧。

Ryan Todd, Piper Sandler.

瑞安·托德，派珀·桑德勒。

Thanks. Maybe first, your operational execution, particularly in the Upstream and Integrated Gas business continue to be really impressive. If we think about it in context of the outlook that you've provided to the end of the decade and even beyond, you've laid out a plan that allows you to largely hold volumes flat to 2030, if you think about how well your assets seem to be performing and the success that you've had in getting more out of your existing asset base, particularly in places like the goal from Brazil, how does this inform your confidence in the ability to meet or maybe even exceed the plan that you've laid out?

謝謝。首先，你們的營運執行力，尤其是在上游和一體化天然氣業務方面，依然非常出色。如果我們結合您對本十年末甚至更遠未來的展望來考慮，您制定了一項計劃，使您能夠在 2030 年前基本保持產量不變。考慮到您的資產表現似乎非常出色，並且您在從現有資產基礎中獲得更多收益方面取得了成功，尤其是在巴西等地取得的成功，這如何增強您對實現甚至超越您所製定計劃的信心？

And then maybe one on LNG. If you think about global gas and LNG demand in the coming years, you've been optimistic, at least over the longer term and the demand will respond at least at a price to growing capacity additions. LNG demand this year out of some of the big Asian players has been a bit disappointing. How are you thinking about global demand, particularly in Asian markets? And what are some of the moving pieces that you're watching there?

然後或許還會有一篇關於液化天然氣的文章。如果你展望未來幾年全球天然氣和液化天然氣的需求，你會發現，至少從長遠來看，需求將會樂觀地成長，而產能的增加至少會付出一定的代價。今年一些亞洲主要國家的液化天然氣需求有點令人失望。您如何看待全球需求，特別是亞洲市場的需求？那麼，你關注的重點有哪些面向呢？

Thanks for that, Ryan. I'll try to address both pretty quickly. LNG, what I would say is, of course, you're going to go through the cycles. You saw strength in Europe this year. You're seeing weakness in Asia after quite some stock building and weather patterns.

謝謝你，瑞恩。我會盡快處理這兩個問題。對於液化天然氣，我想說的是，當然，你會經歷各種週期。今年歐洲展現了強大的實力。在經歷了一段時間的股市上漲和天氣變化之後，亞洲股市開始走弱。

What are we looking at? We're looking at new supply projects and what that means for the overall complex in the latter part of the decade. We continue to see positive signals on transportation in particular, big marine shipowners are looking more and more for LNG as a solution and, of course, trucking.

我們看到的是什麼？我們正在研究新的供應項目，以及這些項目對未來十年後半段整個綜合體的影響。我們持續看到交通運輸領域出現正面訊號，尤其是大型海運船東越來越傾向液化天然氣作為解決方案，當然還有卡車運輸。

And we're looking at what happens in the broader geopolitical space. Russia, how that plays vis-a-vis China and others. And so we are well positioned given the breadth of our portfolio of supply points and our multiple customer touch points to be able to navigate that space and, of course, to weather any storms while looking at the long term to build the portfolio that we think we can continue to lead in as the premier LNG player in our sector.

我們正在關注更廣泛的地緣政治領域正在發生的事情。俄羅斯與中國及其他國家之間的關係會如何發展？因此，憑藉我們廣泛的供應點組合和多個客戶接觸點，我們處於有利地位，能夠駕馭這一領域，當然，也能經受住任何風暴，同時著眼於長遠，構建我們認為能夠繼續引領行業，成為行業領先的液化天然氣企業的投資組合。

On the Upstream, look, we continue to make progress in our portfolio. As I said, I'm proud of the team, but I wouldn't, at this stage, yet say that we are at the full potential of this company. We still leave money on the table, and we are relentlessly going after that, whether it is in the -- in our turnarounds, whether it is in the reliability of our assets, whether it is in areas like water injection, we have more to do. And the more we can derisk that, of course, the less we need new molecules to be able to address the 2030 ambition.

在上游業務方面，我們持續在投資組合方面取得進展。正如我所說，我為團隊感到自豪，但就目前而言，我不會說我們已經發揮了公司的全部潛力。我們仍然有很多錢沒賺到，我們正在不懈地追尋這些錢，無論是在扭虧為盈方面，還是在資產可靠性方面，亦或是像注水這樣的領域，我們都還有更多的工作要做。當然，我們越能降低這種風險，就越不需要新的分子來實現 2030 年的目標。

I will not, at this stage, sort of make a prediction as to where we get to by 2030. But what I will say is I'm very pleased with the progress we're making across the patch to be able to deliver on that objective, and to start to position ourselves for the latter -- for the next decade as well. Thank you for those questions. We can go to the next question, please, Luke.

現階段，我不會對2030年我們會達到什麼程度做出預測。但我必須說的是，我對我們在整個領域的進展感到非常滿意，我們能夠實現這一目標，並開始為後者——以及未來十年——做好準備。謝謝你提出這些問題。盧克，我們可以進入下一個問題了。

Mark Wilson, Jefferies.

馬克威爾遜，傑富瑞集團。

Thank you. A lot of emphasis on allocating capital to the best return. So I'd like to ask you about the UK. North Sea business combination and your forward plans with that? Is -- do you consider that an investment area? And obviously, combined with that expectations for fiscal changes in the UK and how strategic you see that UK North Sea portfolio?

謝謝。非常注重將資金配置到回報最高的領域。所以我想問你關於英國的情況。北海業務合併以及您未來的計劃？您認為這是投資領域嗎？顯然，還要結合對英國財政變化的預期，以及您對英國北海資產組合的策略看法？

Yes, I'd say on the UK firstly excited by the EUR JV and hope that that kicks off before the end of the year. So good progress there. Look at the end of the day we have been very clear when we invest in the upstream, we are looking for predictable and progressive tax systems that allow us to be able to make sure that the investment we are making is one that we Can see the returns on and the reliability of that fiscal set up is key to us.

是的，我認為英國方面首先對EUR合資企業感到興奮，並希望該合資企業能在年底前啟動。所以進展不錯。歸根結底，我們一直非常明確地表示，當我們投資上游時，我們尋求的是可預測且累進的稅收制度，這樣我們才能確保我們的投資能夠獲得回報，而這種財政制度的可靠性對我們來說至關重要。

What EUR will do is, I think it takes the best of both. It takes the best of Ecuador, the best of Shell, puts it together, has a nice development runway with the projects that are already sanctioned, but also has a great asset base to be able to go for follow-up opportunities if the conditions are right. But the conditions need to be right to attract that marginal dollar of capital. And so without speculating on where the budget goes in November, we continue to be hopeful that the fiscal situation is improved and at the end of the day that predictability and reliability come to play so that we can make the investments that allow for indigenous production to be able to serve the needs of the UK longer-term.

我認為歐元會兼具兩者的優點。它匯集了厄瓜多爾和殼牌的精華，並將它們結合在一起，憑藉已獲批准的項目，擁有良好的發展前景，同時還擁有強大的資產基礎，如果條件合適，還可以抓住後續機會。但要吸引到那微不足道的一美元資本，條件必須合適。因此，在不猜測 11 月預算走向的情況下，我們仍然希望財政狀況能夠改善，最終能夠實現可預測性和可靠性，以便我們能夠進行投資，使本土生產能夠長期滿足英國的需求。

And just to add on that a while because the second part of that about capital allocation as well. So I think as we've discussed previously, the whole idea of capital allocation, you emphasized very clearly earlier, we have decisions on where we put the capital, whether it's organic opportunities, inorganic opportunities, whether we look to share buybacks, et cetera. And that decision criteria is key to us, the framework we use, which is really where Mark was going to at the end of this question as well.

再補充一點，因為第二部分也牽涉到資本配置。所以我認為，正如我們之前討論過的，關於資本配置的整個理念，正如你之前非常清楚地強調的那樣，我們需要決定將資本投入到哪裡，無論是有機增長機會、無機增長機會，還是股票回購等等。而這個決策標準對我們來說至關重要，這是我們所使用的框架，這也是馬克在這個問題最後想要表達的意思。

So we do look at both the performance of the company in the quarter, but we also look at the macro and where it's going to as well. And of course, that's sort of the decision criteria when we look at the buyback versus actually putting capital to some of our assets as well.

因此，我們既會關注公司當季的業績，也會關注宏觀經濟及其未來的發展方向。當然，這也是我們在考慮回購資產還是將資金投入某些資產時需要考慮的決策標準。

We keep coming back to the fact that on a distribution policy perspective, 40% to 50%, as you said, is sacrosanct. And we want to remain within that range and that's what we will do. And of course, then we look at how do we fund it, whether it's the free cash flow or whether we are looking to lean on the balance sheet, as we've said. So we have a large range of different capital allocation decisions as we go through, but always focused on what we've said consistently, 40% to 50% of distribution is sacrosanct, and we look forward to growing the business as we can.

我們始終認為，從分配政策的角度來看，40% 到 50% 的比例，正如你所說，是神聖不可侵犯的。我們希望保持在那個範圍內，我們也會這樣做。當然，接下來我們還要考慮如何籌集資金，無論是自由現金流，還是像我們之前說的那樣，依靠資產負債表。因此，我們在前進的過程中會面臨各種不同的資本分配決策，但始終專注於我們一直以來所說的，40% 到 50% 的分配是神聖不可侵犯的，我們期待著盡可能地發展業務。

Thanks, Sinead. And thank you, Mark, for that question as well. I think we're at the end. So thank you all for your questions and for making time to join the call. In conclusion, we delivered a strong set of results despite the continued volatility we see.

謝謝你，希妮德。也謝謝你，馬克，提出了這個問題。我想我們已經到了最後。感謝大家的提問，也感謝大家抽空參加電話會議。總之，儘管市場持續波動，我們仍然取得了一系列強勁的業績。

Our strong delivery this quarter has enabled us to enhance another $3.5 billion of buybacks. And as we close out this year, we will continue to focus on performance, discipline and simplification. Wishing everyone a pleasant end of the week. Thank you all again for joining us today.

本季強勁的業績表現使我們能夠再增加 35 億美元的股票回購計畫。在今年即將結束之際，我們將繼續專注於績效、紀律和簡化。祝大家週末愉快。再次感謝各位今天蒞臨。