殼牌 (SHEL) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome everyone and thank you for joining. Today, Sinead and I will present Shell's second-quarter results for 2025. Starting first with the broader external context, the macro continued to be challenging on multiple fronts. Against the backdrop of geopolitical and economic uncertainty, we saw knock-on effects on both physical trade flows as well as commodity prices and margins more broadly.

歡迎大家並感謝大家的加入。今天，Sinead 和我將介紹殼牌 2025 年第二季的業績。首先從更廣泛的外部環境開始，宏觀經濟在多個方面繼續面臨挑戰。在地緣政治和經濟不確定性的背景下，我們看到了對實體貿易流量以及大宗商品價格和利潤率的連鎖反應。

In spite of this, we delivered a robust set of results with strong operational performance while continuing to further our strategy and progress against the key targets outlined at our Capital Markets Day in March.

儘管如此，我們仍然取得了強勁的業績和營運表現，同時繼續推進我們的策略並朝著 3 月份資本市場日概述的關鍵目標邁進。

Let's start with cost, where we have demonstrated once again that we will deliver what we say. In the first half of 2025, we achieved some $800 million in structural cost reductions. This brings the total since 2022 to $3.9 billion putting us firmly on track for our target of $5 billion to $7 billion by the end of 2028.

讓我們從成本開始，我們再次證明我們會兌現我們所說的話。2025 年上半年，我們實現了約 8 億美元的結構性成本削減。這使得自 2022 年以來的總額達到 39 億美元，使我們堅定地朝著 2028 年底達到 50 億至 70 億美元的目標邁進。

What I'm particularly encouraged by is the fact that the majority of these savings come from what we call non-portfolio reductions, essentially changing the way we work as opposed to costs that are taken out as part of divestments or other portfolio choices.

令我特別感到鼓舞的是，這些節省的大部分來自於我們所說的非投資組合削減，本質上改變了我們的工作方式，而不是作為資產剝離或其他投資組合選擇的一部分而產生的成本。

We have delivered efficiencies throughout our operations in maintenance activities across our supply chains and in the corporate center, and all of this has resulted in cost takeout of almost $2.5 billion which is more than 60% of the total structural cost reduction since 2022.

我們在整個供應鏈和企業中心的維護活動中提高了營運效率，所有這些都導致成本減少近 25 億美元，佔 2022 年以來總結構成本減少的 60% 以上。

Now, let's turn to our portfolio, where we've also made considerable progress delivering on our strategy to strengthen our world-class businesses. A major milestone for us was the startup of LNG Canada in which Shell has a 40% working interest. Its strategic location on the country's west coast brings feedstock advantages and greater marketing flexibility, including transit routes to Asia that are more than 50% shorter than those from the US Gulf Coast.

現在，讓我們來看看我們的投資組合，我們在實施加強世界一流業務的策略方面也取得了長足的進步。對我們來說，一個重要的里程碑是液化天然氣加拿大公司的啟動，殼牌公司擁有該公司 40% 的營運權益。該國位於西海岸的戰略位置帶來了原料優勢和更大的營銷靈活性，包括通往亞洲的運輸路線比美國墨西哥灣沿岸的運輸路線短 50% 以上。

At CMD25, we said that we will grow LNG sales between 4% to 5%. And LNG Canada is expected to play a big part in that, having shipped its first cargo in June. To support future growth, we also took final investment decisions on projects in Egypt as well as Trinidad and Tobago. These will increase feed gas supply to our leading LNG portfolio over time.

在 CMD25 上，我們表示將使液化天然氣銷售增加 4% 至 5%。加拿大液化天然氣公司預計將在其中發揮重要作用，該公司已於 6 月運送了第一批貨物。為了支持未來的成長，我們也對埃及以及特立尼達和多巴哥的計畫做出了最終投資決策。隨著時間的推移，這些將增加我們領先的液化天然氣組合的原料氣供應。

We also said that we would grow production while continuing to sustain liquids, and in the second quarter we continue to do that, especially in our deep-water assets. In Brazil, we have some of our most competitive barrels in terms of operating cost and carbon footprint. This quarter we started up [Mirra 4] and agreed to increase our working interest and Gato do Mato. And in Nigeria, we deepened our interest in the Bonga field where we have been delivering top quartile operational performance.

我們也表示，我們將在繼續維持液體供應的同時提高產量，第二季我們將繼續這樣做，特別是在我們的深水資產方面。在巴西，我們擁有一些在營運成本和碳足跡方面最具競爭力的桶。本季我們啟動了 [Mirra 4] 並同意增加我們的工作權益和 Gato do Mato。在奈及利亞，我們加深了對 Bonga 油田的興趣，在該油田我們一直保持著頂級的營運表現。

At CMD25, we also said that we would high grade our downstream renewables and energy solutions business, which we have continued to do this quarter. In chemicals we completed the divestment of the Energy & Chemicals Park in Singapore.

在 CMD25 上，我們也表示將高度評價我們的下游再生能源和能源解決方案業務，本季我們繼續這樣做。在化學品領域，我們完成了新加坡能源與化學品園區的撤資。

And in mobility, with a value over volume lens we announced divestment of our retail networks in both Indonesia and in Mexico. So despite the more challenging macro conditions, we have been able to make important progress on our strategy.

在行動領域，我們以價值而非數量為導向，宣布剝離在印尼和墨西哥的零售網路。因此，儘管宏觀條件更具挑戰性，我們仍然能夠在策略上取得重要進展。

And with that, let me hand over to Sinead to provide some more details on our Q2 financial performance.

接下來，請容許我把時間交給 Sinead，讓她提供有關我們第二季財務表現的更多詳細資訊。

Thank you, Wael. In Q2, we delivered a robust set of results in what was a more challenging macro environment than Q1, as why I alluded to. Our adjusted earnings for the quarter were some $4.3 billion and we delivered $11.9 billion of cash flow from operations.

謝謝你，瓦埃爾。正如我所提到的，在第二季度，我們在比第一季更具挑戰性的宏觀環境中取得了強勁的業績。本季我們的調整後收益約為 43 億美元，營運現金流為 119 億美元。

Integrated Gas and Upstream both delivered strong operational performance in a quarter with higher plan maintenance, weaker margins, and fewer trading and optimization opportunities. Chemicals and Products faced another challenging quarter impacted by continued weak margins and unplanned downtime and chemicals, and a lower contribution from trading and optimization which saw oil markets experience a disconnect between market volatility and supply demand fundamentals.

綜合天然氣和上游業務在本季度均實現了強勁的營運業績，但計劃維護費用較高、利潤率較低、交易和優化機會較少。化學品和產品業務又面臨一個充滿挑戰的季度，受到利潤率持續疲軟、計劃外停機和化學品的影響，以及交易和優化貢獻的降低，導致石油市場出現市場波動和供需基本面脫節。

Marketing, on the other hand, recorded its best Q2 results in nearly a decade. Both Mobility and Lubricants had another strong quarter with Mobility entering the driving season, benefiting from its portfolio high grading, and an increase in premium fuels margin contribution.

另一方面，行銷部門錄得近十年來最好的第二季業績。移動出行和潤滑油業務均迎來另一個強勁的季度，移動出行進入駕駛季節，受益於其產品組合的高評級以及優質燃料利潤貢獻的增加。

Now, moving to our financial framework. Our cash CapEx outlook for the full year 2025 remains unchanged. And we continue to prioritize the highest return opportunities. Given our cash generation and balance sheet strength, we're announcing another $3.5 billion share buyback program today, which we expect to complete in time for our Q3 results announcement in October.

現在，轉向我們的財務框架。我們對 2025 年全年現金資本支出的展望保持不變。我們將繼續優先考慮最高回報的機會。鑑於我們的現金創造能力和資產負債表實力，我們今天宣布了另一項 35 億美元的股票回購計劃，預計該計劃將在 10 月公佈第三季業績之前完成。

This is the 15th consecutive quarter in which we have announced $3 billion or more in buybacks. And at the end of Q2, our four quarter rolling shareholder distributions were 46% of CFFO in line with our target range of 40% to 50% of CFFO through the cycle.

這是我們連續第 15 季宣布 30 億美元或更多的回購。在第二季末，我們的四個季度滾動股東分配為 CFFO 的 46%，與我們整個週期內 CFFO 的 40% 至 50% 的目標範圍一致。

And with that, let me hand back to Wael.

說完這些，讓我把話還給瓦埃爾。

Thank you, Sinead. To summarize, we delivered a robust set of results in Q2 in a challenging geopolitical and macroeconomic environment. We remain focused on executing our strategy, transforming our portfolio, and delivering on our key targets.

謝謝你，Sinead。總而言之，在充滿挑戰的地緣政治和宏觀經濟環境下，我們在第二季取得了強勁的業績。我們將繼續專注於執行我們的策略、轉變我們的產品組合併實現我們的關鍵目標。

We're confident that our strategy is the right one, and every day I see the momentum building across our organization to drive performance, discipline, and simplification in order to deliver more value with less emissions. Thank you.

我們堅信我們的策略是正確的，而且我每天都能看到整個組織積極推動績效、紀律和簡化，以減少排放，創造更多價值。謝謝。

Thank you for joining us today. We hope that after watching this presentation, you've seen how we continue to make meaningful progress on the delivery of our targets while strengthening our world class portfolio.

感謝您今天加入我們。我們希望，在觀看本次演示後，您能夠看到我們如何在實現目標的同時繼續取得有意義的進展，同時加強我們世界一流的產品組合。

Today, Sinead and I will be answering your questions, and now please could we have just one or two questions each so that everyone gets the opportunity.

今天，Sinead 和我將回答你們的問題，現在請允許我們每人問一兩個問題，以便每個人都有機會。

With that, could we have the first one, please, Luke?

那麼，盧克，我們可以先來一個嗎？

Matt Lofting, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的馬特‧洛夫廷 (Matt Lofting)。

Hi, thanks for taking the questions. A couple if I could, please. I wanted to start with trading, but perhaps you could frame in the context of the more challenged environment that you referred to in the opening remarks during the second quarter, how you see the outlook 3Q and beyond on those trading optimization businesses and if it's possible, perhaps break down the pieces between liquids and products and then gas in IG.

你好，謝謝你回答這個問題。如果可以的話，請給我幾張。我想從交易開始，但也許您可以結合您在第二季度開場白中提到的更具挑戰性的環境，談談您如何看待第三季度及以後這些交易優化業務的前景，如果可能的話，也許可以將其細分為液體和產品，然後是 IG 中的天然氣。

And then secondly, I just wanted to ask about the Upstream business, another consensus beat in the second quarter this morning, something of a trend around that over the last four to six quarters. I wonder if you could just zoom in on the upstream business, talk about what areas of that business stand out to you in terms of delivery and how sustainable you see that going forward. Thank you.

其次，我想問上游業務的情況，今天上午第二季的另一個共識是超出預期，過去四到六個季度一直呈現這種趨勢。我想知道您是否可以放大上游業務，談談該業務在交付方面哪些領域讓您印象深刻，以及您認為其未來的可持續性如何。謝謝。

Thanks, Matt. Let me start maybe with the second question first and then have Sinead if you want to address the first one. I'm very proud of the way the team has been responding in the Upstream space. Remember this is a high-graded portfolio. Over the years what we have done is really focused on trying to increase our cash flow per barrel, really focus on the basins where we have an advantaged position.

謝謝，馬特。我先從第二個問題開始，然後請 Sinead 回答第一個問題。我對團隊在上游領域的反應方式感到非常自豪。請記住這是一個高等級的投資組合。多年來，我們所做的真正重點是試圖增加每桶石油的現金流，真正專注於我們擁有優勢地位的盆地。

Most recently, of course, there was the divestment of onshore Nigeria that added to that portfolio high grading that we have. So what's the team doing? We've been very focused on going back to what we call the brilliant basics, and what we mean by that is just the blocking and the tackling that is required to be able to create value.

當然，最近我們對尼日利亞境內油氣資源進行了撤資，這進一步提高了我們的投資組合評級。那麼團隊在做什麼？我們一直非常注重回歸所謂的卓越基礎，我們的意思是創造價值所需的阻礙和解決。

It starts with reliability, availability, the operational improvements that we have, teams really getting into the rigor of all the operations we need, and you've seen that come through not just in operations but also in maintenance. Second quarter, of course, is one of the highest maintenance quarters typically for us, and the majority of our turnarounds or maintenance activities have ended either on plan, on budget or slightly better. So really good performance.

它始於可靠性、可用性、我們所擁有的營運改進，團隊真正深入我們所需的所有營運的嚴謹性，而且您已經看到，這不僅體現在營運中，也體現在維護中。當然，第二季通常是我們維護成本最高的季度之一，我們的大部分週轉或維護活動都按計劃、按預算或略好地結束。表現確實很出色。

I've also seen a lot of drive to be able to create that next level of competitiveness in Upstream. I was just in the US last week and looking at the Gulf and our operations in the Gulf of America. A real focus these days on cost, how we optimize the supply chain, how we enhance our planning so that we are able to leverage a much leaner supply chain, whether it's shipping, trucks or the like, and all of it with much more of a value focused mindset while delivering safe outcomes.

我還看到了在上游領域創造更高水平競爭力的巨大動力。我上週剛去了美國，考察了墨西哥灣以及我們在美國灣的業務。目前真正關注的是成本、如何優化供應鏈、如何加強規劃，以便我們能夠利用更精簡的供應鏈（無論是航運、卡車或類似物），所有這些都以更注重價值的心態來實現安全的結果。

In every part of the Upstream organization, I'm seeing more and more of that, and that to me is a great signal of the culture change that we're seeing as we drive performance, discipline, and simplification in the company, matt. Sinead?

在上游組織的每個部分，我越來越多地看到這種情況，對我來說，這是我們在推動公司績效、紀律和簡化時所看到的文化變革的一個很好的信號，馬特。西妮德？

Indeed. Thanks, Matt. So with respect to trading, it definitely had a decent contribution for us across this quarter, so pleased with the results. You can't have sort of one homogeneous conversation about trading because each of the segments contributes slightly differently. So let's take them one by one, which is what you requested.

的確。謝謝，馬特。因此，就交易而言，它在本季度確實為我們做出了可觀的貢獻，因此對結果感到滿意。你不可能就交易進行單一的討論，因為每個部分的貢獻都略有不同。因此，讓我們逐一討論，這正是您所要求的。

So in terms of our renewables segment, it's pretty much the norm. You always see it at the sort of level for the seasonality that we see. With respect to talking about normal, really moving on to LNG, what we see with our IG segment is really this is more the new norm. So this is where we're seeing volatility having changed coming out of the war.

因此，就我們的再生能源領域而言，這幾乎是常態。您總是會看到它處於我們所看到的季節性水平。就談論正常情況，真正轉向液化天然氣而言，我們在 IG 領域看到的是，這實際上更像是一種新常態。因此，我們看到戰爭結束後波動性發生了變化。

So we saw a lot of volatility around the time of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Of course, this is more towards that norm and of course from our perspective we have less volatility and a bit of a change in our portfolio mix as well.

因此，我們看到俄羅斯與烏克蘭衝突期間出現了許多動盪。當然，這比較符合常態，當然從我們的角度來看，我們的波動性較小，投資組合也有所改變。

Moving over to our products, our chemicals and products segment with respect to products in particular, good results coming through, traders doing well, being able to take advantage of what they saw there. On the crude side, it came through a little bit differently.

轉到我們的產品，特別是化學品和產品部門的產品，取得了良好的業績，貿易商做得很好，能夠利用他們在那裡看到的東西。從粗略的方面來看，它的表現有點不同。

So of course, we saw just a disconnect between what was market volatility and what we saw in the underlying fundamentals and therefore had basically a prudent approach and chose to risk off slightly, which meant that we didn't have the same contribution expect to see coming through on crude.

因此，當然，我們看到市場波動和基本面之間存在脫節，因此我們基本上採取了謹慎的態度，並選擇稍微規避風險，這意味著我們沒有像預期的那樣對原油做出同樣的貢獻。

That's a quarter aspect, and we would expect to see our traders picking up as you run through the rest of this year. So that gives you a bit of a view across the whole of the trading segment but looking forward to seeing what they can deliver for us as usual as we end the year.

這是季度的一個方面，我們預計，隨著今年剩餘時間的到來，我們的交易員數量將會增加。這樣您就可以對整個交易領域有一個大致的了解，但我們期待看到他們在年底時能像往常一樣為我們帶來什麼。

Thanks, Matt, for the question. Luke, let's go to the next question, please.

謝謝馬特提出這個問題。盧克，請我們進入下一個問題。

Lydia Rainforth, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的 Lydia Rainforth。

Hello. Thank you and good afternoon. Two questions again if I could. Firstly, on gearing, how much higher are you willing to take the gearing level if we're at about 19.5% at $70 that might feel okay, but it does feel like we've all got a little bit used to that $3 billion quarter buyback for more than 15 quarters. So at some point you have to think about slowing that.

你好。謝謝，下午好。如果可以的話我再問兩個問題。首先，關於槓桿率，如果在每股 70 美元時我們的槓桿率約為 19.5%，那麼您願意將槓桿率提高多少呢？這可能感覺還不錯，但感覺我們已經有點習慣了超過 15 個季度的 30 億美元季度回購。因此，在某個時候你必須考慮減緩這種速度。

And then secondly on the chemical side. A bit more unplanned maintenance here. So when I go back to CMD25, fixing the underperforming (inaudible) was a big focus and a big gap to close to get to optimal performance. So what's going on there and is it proving a little bit harder than you expected?

其次是化學方面。這裡有一些計劃外的維護。因此，當我回到 CMD25 時，修復表現不佳（聽不清楚）是一個重點，也是達到最佳性能需要彌補的巨大差距。那麼那裡發生了什麼事？是否比你想像的要難一些？

Lydia, thank you for those two. I'll again maybe start with the second question and then hand over to you, Sinead. On chemicals, I think firstly, Of course, the macro continues in what has been an incredibly prolonged trough and one that could potentially run for a lot longer as well.

莉迪亞，謝謝你們兩位。我可能還是會從第二個問題開始，然後交給你，Sinead。關於化學品，我認為首先，宏觀經濟當然會繼續處於一個令人難以置信的長期低谷期，而且這個低谷期可能會持續更長時間。

Of course, we're seeing the supply coming out of China, more supply coming out, but other parts of the world as well. So it just does mean that we're going to have to live with this reality for quite some time. What have we done to respond to that? I think firstly, what we've talked about is making sure that we continue to focus on high grading our portfolio.

當然，我們看到來自中國的供應正在增加，而且供應量還在增加，但世界其他地區也有供應。所以這確實意味著我們將不得不在相當長的時間內忍受這個現實。我們做了什麼來應對這個問題？我認為首先，我們所談論的是確保我們繼續專注於高評級的投資組合。

You've seen us move now this quarter. On April 1 we completed the sale of our Singapore chemicals and refining assets, and we look at the opportunities to be able to high grade and selective closures in Europe. We've also announced more broadly that we will be looking in the US at what we can do, but that takes time, and we've talked there about the strategic and partnering opportunities.

您已經看到我們本季的進展。4 月 1 日，我們完成了新加坡化學品和煉油資產的出售，並正在尋求在歐洲進行高品位和選擇性關閉的機會。我們也更廣泛地宣布，我們將在美國尋找我們能做的事情，但這需要時間，我們已經在那裡討論了戰略和合作機會。

But that's one bucket that we've been looking at on the portfolio side and executing what we have said we were going to do. I think the second bucket for us is also looking at what we can do in terms of self-help. We've been driving down the cost structure there. We've been looking at how we can optimize even further to unlock value, and that's helped us some.

但這是我們在投資組合方面一直在關注的一個領域，並且正在執行我們說過要做的事情。我認為我們的第二個目標是研究在自助方面我們可以做些什麼。我們一直在降低那裡的成本結構。我們一直在研究如何進一步優化以釋放價值，這對我們有一定幫助。

But the reality is it's just not enough. We are continuing to see a negative free cash flow there. And so, I have instructed the teams to take the next level of measures that will potentially bridge that gap and move us closer towards free cash flow neutrality. There are multiple levers we're pulling, but I think we have to move now to the stage where we have to stop the bleeding, and that is what we're going to be focused on.

但事實是這還不夠。我們繼續看到那裡的自由現金流為負。因此，我已指示各團隊採取下一階段措施，以彌補這一差距，使我們更接近自由現金流中立。我們正在採取多種措施，但我認為我們現在必須進入止血的階段，這也是我們要關注的重點。

This will be something that the team is very focused on while we continue to drive the reliability improvements and the like. And at the heart of it all, of course, is making sure the assets keep running. Shell Polymers Monaca, of course, has had a couple of good quarters.

在我們繼續推動可靠性改進等的同時，這將是團隊非常關注的事情。當然，這一切的核心是確保資產持續運作。當然，殼牌聚合物莫納卡公司已經經歷了幾個良好的季度。

The last one was a bit more challenged. We need to make sure that we are running that asset at capacity, so more for us to do and more for us to deliver in the chemical space, even though the macro continues to be very challenged. Sinead?

最後一個有點更具挑戰性。我們需要確保該資產以最大容量運行，這樣，儘管宏觀經濟仍然面臨巨大挑戰，但我們仍可以在化學領域做更多的事情，交付更多成果。西妮德？

Thanks, Lydia. And with respect to gearing and how high will we go, let me take it a little bit differently and say how I think about it. So the thought process is very much around a trade-off between value and risk, and it's that trade-off between buying back our shares at a very attractive yield whatever metric you want to use versus leaning on the balance sheet and any risk that comes with that.

謝謝，莉迪亞。至於槓桿率以及我們將達到多高，讓我從稍微不同的角度來看待這個問題並談談我的看法。因此，思考過程主要圍繞著價值和風險之間的權衡，即在以非常有吸引力的收益率（無論你想使用什麼指標）回購我們的股票與依賴資產負債表及其帶來的任何風險之間進行權衡。

Now of course, when your balance sheet is sitting at a gearing, as you say, of 19.1%, there's a lot of space there, obviously as well, and of course you're talking about that attractive yield we just discussed.

當然，正如您所說，當您的資產負債表的槓桿率為 19.1% 時，顯然也有很多空間，當然，您說的是我們剛才討論過的有吸引力的收益率。

Where we went to a net debt, of course, this time the gearing went up roughly just under 0.5%, which is about $1.7 billion equivalent. So what is it? What was in that? Probably worth unpacking that a little bit because what you saw was roughly speaking about a $1 billion of inventory built and roughly speaking about $0.5 billion related to leases.

當然，當我們談到淨債務時，這次負債率上升了大約 0.5% 以下，相當於約 17 億美元。那麼它是什麼？那裡面是什麼？可能值得稍微解釋一下，因為您看到的是粗略地說，已建成的庫存約為 10 億美元，而與租賃相關的庫存約為 5 億美元。

So in other words, Mirra 4 coming on. So you can see most of that net debt increase is actually about things that add cash and add value later on. So I'm very comfortable with where my balance sheet is, very comfortable with where the gearing is as well.

換句話說，Mirra 4 即將推出。因此，您可以看到，大部分淨債務的增加實際上與後來增加現金和增加價值有關。因此，我對自己的資產負債表狀況非常滿意，對負債比率也很滿意。

So what does that mean for us? It means that I need to focus in on what have we told you. We've told you that that 40% to 50% is related to basically our cash flow. That's a promise, that's sacrosanct to us in terms of that return. So we focus in on that and make sure we continue with predictability going forward. Thank you.

那麼這對我們意味著什麼？這意味著我需要集中精力於我們告訴你的內容。我們已經告訴過您，這 40% 到 50% 基本上與我們的現金流有關。這是一個承諾，就回報而言，這對我們來說是神聖不可侵犯的。因此，我們重點關注這一點，並確保我們在未來繼續保持可預測性。謝謝。

Thanks, Sinead. I like that sacrosanct. All right, Lydia, thank you for that question. Luke, let's go to the next next one.

謝謝，Sinead。我喜歡這種神聖不可侵犯的事物。好的，莉迪亞，謝謝你的提問。盧克，我們繼續下一個吧。

Martijn Rats, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的 Martijn Rats。

Yeah. Hi, hello. Two question for me as well. Given this rather strong result in marketing, I was wondering if you could say a few words about what you think the state of global oil demand is. Because of course, as the year progressed, many of us have been expecting quite soft oil demand, tariffs, GDP below trend, mostly seeing downgrades to estimates for oil demand growth this year.

是的。嗨，你好。我也有兩個問題。鑑於行銷方面取得的相當強勁的成果，我想知道您是否可以談談您認為的全球石油需求狀況。因為當然，隨著時間的推移，我們許多人都預期石油需求將相當疲軟，關稅、GDP低於趨勢，大多數人預計今年石油需求成長的預期將被下調。

But this was a strong result, and refining margins are strong and you see more than on that. So I was hoping you could say a few words on that. And then secondly, I wanted to sort of pick you up on the previous comment on the extended stock market conditions in chemicals. There seems to be at least from my esteemed colleagues here in our chemicals team, some enthusiasm about anti-involution in China.

但這是一個強勁的結果，煉油利潤率很高，你看到的遠不止這些。所以我希望你能就此說幾句話。其次，我想跟您回顧一下先前關於化工產業股票市場長期狀況的評論。至少我們化學團隊中尊敬的同事們似乎對中國的反內捲化表現出一些熱情。

To be honest, I didn't realize that that was a term before, but there seems to be some measures on the part of the Chinese government to start shrinking excess capacity in both chemicals as well as in refining, and that could perhaps remove some of that excess capacity. And therefore, I was wondering if you had any perspective of whether that can perhaps at some point bring a bit of solace to the to the chemical earnings.

說實話，我之前沒有意識到這是一個術語，但中國政府似乎正在採取一些措施，開始縮減化學和煉油領域的過剩產能，這也許可以消除部分過剩產能。因此，我想知道您是否認為這在某種程度上能給化學收益帶來一些安慰。

Thanks for those two, Martijn. Let me pick them up, starting with your second one maybe very quickly. Indeed, I mean we pick up the same, but at the end of the day what we can control is our own reality and what we find at the moment is there's been a discussion on this for quite a few quarters now.

謝謝你們兩個，馬丁。讓我來接手，可能很快就會從你的第二個開始。確實，我的意思是我們得到了同樣的東西，但最終我們能夠控制的是我們自己的現實，而我們現在發現，關於這個問題已經討論了好幾個季度了。

It hasn't materialized and this is why we needed to escalate our own interventions to the next level of levers that we have. Clearly, if there is a move in that space, it would impact the chemicals market and the chemicals margins just given the scale of production coming out of China at the moment.

但它尚未實現，這就是為什麼我們需要將我們自己的干預措施升級到我們所擁有的下一個槓桿水平。顯然，如果該領域有所舉動，考慮到目前中國的生產規模，它將影響化學品市場和化學品利潤率。

So we will watch that with interest, but I'm not in a position to speculate, of course, on where it might go. I think on the broader marketing and to your point around global oil demand, so year-to-date we've seen roughly 1 million barrels per day of oil products demand growth.

因此，我們會饒有興趣地關注此事，但我當然無法推測其未來走向。我認為從更廣泛的營銷角度以及您所提到的全球石油需求來看，今年迄今為止，我們已經看到石油產品需求增長約 100 萬桶/天。

That's pretty robust and it's being -- and that is despite some of the headwinds that we have seen, of course. We'll have to really understand what the impact of the tariffs might be in the second half of the year. Of course, we also have to keep a close eye on where OPEC+ goes as they continue to ease some of the production cuts that were that were in place.

這是相當強勁的——當然，儘管我們也看到了一些阻力。我們必須真正了解關稅在下半年可能產生的影響。當然，我們也必須密切關注 OPEC+ 的動向，因為他們將繼續放鬆部分已經實施的減產措施。

The other big question is how the US responds, of course, to Russia in terms of potential sanctions that have been talked about. That is a lot that I can't control, we can't control as a company. So what we have tried to focus on is what we can control, and really the investment thesis that we are building, Martijn, is one that is trying as much as possible to be non-price dependent.

另一個大問題是，美國將如何應對俄羅斯所談論的潛在製裁。很多事情是我無法控制的，身為一家公司我們也無力控制。因此，我們試圖專注的是我們能夠控制的事情，而我們正在建構的投資理論，Martijn，就是盡可能地不受價格的依賴。

What do I mean by that? And maybe just a moment to unpack it a bit further. We have been in this sort of mode of wanting to transform the company for just over two years now, and we have made excellent progress, right? I mean, you've seen today our structural cost reductions, which the majority of our non-portfolio are nearing $4 billion.

我這樣說是什麼意思？也許只需花一點時間來進一步解釋。兩年多來，我們一直處於這種想要改變公司的模式，並且已經取得了很好的進展，對嗎？我的意思是，您今天已經看到了我們的結構性成本削減，其中大部分非投資組合成本已接近 40 億美元。

A couple of years ago we thought we would be at $2 billion to $3 billion by the end of 2025. We're at close to $4 billion in the middle of 2025. That gives you a sense of the culture change happening in the company. We are really looking at how we are more and more disciplined in our capital allocation. You've seen that. You've seen that both in terms of the quantum and where our capital is going.

幾年前，我們預計到 2025 年底我們的營收將達到 20 億至 30 億美元。到 2025 年中期，這一數字將接近 40 億美元。這讓你感受到公司正在發生的文化變革。我們確實在研究如何讓我們的資本配置越來越規範。你已經看到了。您已經從數量和資本流向兩個方面看到了這一點。

You've seen us continue to drive operational enhancements in our business. That is what we can control. Sinead's already alluded to the strength of the balance sheet, and that is another element that we can make sure we have strength in as we go into choppy waters. But at the heart of it, what we have also promised is a 10% free cash flow per share growth between now and 2030 on a CAGR basis.

您已經看到我們繼續推動業務運營的改進。這是我們能夠控制的。Sinead 已經提到了資產負債表的實力，這是我們在進入波濤洶湧的水域時可以確保實力的另一個因素。但從本質上講，我們也承諾從現在到 2030 年，每股自由現金流將以複合年增長率成長 10%。

The attraction of that is just over half of it is coming from buybacks, again, something we can control. And then the remainder is coming from the transformation of our downstream renewables business, some of the ops cuts that we have alluded to. So a lot of it is non-price dependent.

其吸引力在於，其中超過一半來自回購，同樣，這是我們可以控制的。其餘部分則來自我們下游再生能源業務的轉型，以及我們提到的一些營運削減。因此，很多因素與價格無關。

That is what we can control and what we're trying to drive towards, and that in my mind is the heart of the investment thesis that we are trying to drive, all while we deploy capital to build that run rate for the 2030s and build that cash flow growth that we will expect in the next decade.

這就是我們能夠控制的，也是我們努力追求的目標，在我看來，這也是我們努力推動的投資理論的核心，同時我們部署資本來建立 2030 年代的運行率，並實現我們預期的未來十年的現金流增長。

Thank you for the questions, Martijn. Luke, let's go to the next question, please.

感謝您的提問，Martijn。盧克，請我們進入下一個問題。

Josh Stone, UBS.

瑞銀的喬許史東。

Hi. Thanks, and good afternoon. Two questions, please. Firstly, on the cost savings, you've had great success at bringing down costs, and if I look at the numbers divisionally, it looks like the Upstream has been a big component of that compared to some other parts of the business. Also noting some of your earlier comments on that.

你好。謝謝，下午好。請問兩個問題。首先，在成本節約方面，你們在降低成本方面取得了巨大的成功，如果我從部門角度來看這些數字，那麼與業務的其他部分相比，上游業務似乎佔了很大一部分。也注意到您之前對此的一些評論。

But when you look at the opportunities from now, where do you see the most room for further improvement? Are you running out of steam in the Upstream at all, or is that still an area of focus?

但是當您從現在的角度看待機會時，您認為哪些方面最有進一步改進的空間？你們在「上游」領域是否已經失去動力了，還是這仍然是你們關注的重點領域？

And then second question on acquisitions. Last time, you told us you want to be value hunters and you've been connected with a couple of companies this quarter. So I'm interested to see, yeah, how you think the hunter is going and any comments around your appetite to do deals today. Thanks.

第二個問題是關於收購。上次，您告訴我們您想成為價值獵人，本季您已經與幾家公司建立了聯繫。所以我很感興趣，是的，你認為獵人的情況如何，以及你對今天做交易的興趣有何評論。謝謝。

Yeah. Let me touch on those starting with the cost runway. As you said, Josh, I think we've made good progress, but as I said at Capital Markets Day, we started the journey with a top down target. Where we are today is with a bottom-up reality. We are seeing a lot more of the cost structural cost reduction ideas coming from the shop floor from the assets.

是的。讓我先從成本跑道開始談。正如你所說，喬希，我認為我們已經取得了良好的進展，但正如我在資本市場日所說的那樣，我們以自上而下的目標開始了這一旅程。我們今天所處的現實是自下而上的。我們看到越來越多的成本結構成本削減想法來自於車間資產。

I was recently in Malaysia. The offshore assets there have a funnel of 150 opportunities to be able to go after. They're going after each one of them. That to me is the change that I had been hoping to see and maybe was surprised to the upside as to how quickly that materialized in the organization.

我最近去了馬來西亞。那裡的離岸資產有 150 個機會可以爭取。他們正在追擊每一個人。對我來說，這就是我一直希望看到的變化，而且我對組織中實現這種變化的速度之快感到驚訝。

Where will the reductions come from going forward? Everywhere. Yes, Upstream has delivered, but it's important to recognize the Upstream is also the consolidation of some of the functional costs. The functions are on their own journey to simplify, to automate where we can to apply AI.

未來減排將從何而來？到處。是的，上游已經交付，但重要的是要認識到上游也是一些功能成本的整合。這些功能正在逐步簡化，並在我們可以應用人工智慧的地方實現自動化。

There's a significant push for us to be able to go after the next wave of opportunities in our supply chain. We spend over $40 billion a year, massive opportunities if we are able to standardize our requirements to be a lot more commercial in how we pursue that, and we continue to simplify the organization.

我們面臨著巨大的推動力，能夠抓住供應鏈中的下一波機會。我們每年花費超過 400 億美元，如果我們能夠標準化我們的要求，使我們追求的目標更加商業化，那麼我們將擁有巨大的機遇，並且我們將繼續簡化組織。

We are trying to, in essence, deconstruct the complexity that we have placed on the organization and rebuild at bottoms up with much more of a risk-based approach in the way we look at how we do work. So I'm still excited by those opportunities and I do see a line of sight towards that $5 billion to $7 billion of cost reductions that we have already signaled we are going to be delivering by 2028.

本質上，我們正在嘗試解構我們賦予組織的複雜性，並自下而上地重建組織，採用更多基於風險的方法來審視我們的工作方式。因此，我仍然對這些機會感到興奮，而且我確實看到了 50 億至 70 億美元的成本削減目標，我們已經表示將在 2028 年實現這一目標。

I think on the on the acquisitions, I'd say not much has changed since the last time we all spoke. The bar continues to be high. As I've said in the past, we will make the appropriate moves at the right points in time when we see value. We've made three such moves in the recent past.

我認為，就收購而言，自從我們上次談話以來，並沒有發生太大的變化。標準仍然很高。正如我過去所說的那樣，當我們看到價值時，我們會在適當的時間點採取適當的行動。我們最近已經採取了三次這樣的措施。

We increased our equity interest in Ursa, a platform in the Gulf of America which we operate. We've increased our equity interest in Gato do Mato in Brazil, a project that we operate. We've increased our interest in Bonga in deepwater in Nigeria, an asset that we operate.

我們增加了對我們營運的美國灣平台 Ursa 的股權。我們增加了對我們營運的巴西 Gato do Mato 專案的股權。我們增加了對尼日利亞深水區 Bonga 的權益，這是我們經營的資產。

And so, we have selectively used some of the flex we have in our capital budget to be able to build off those positions in areas where we think we have competitive advantages. Do we look at what's happening in the market and keep an eye on the opportunities? Of course we do.

因此，我們有選擇地使用了資本預算中的部分彈性，以便在我們認為具有競爭優勢的領域鞏固這些地位。我們是否關注市場動態並留意機會？當然有。

But as I said, the bar is high and that bar is as a minimum competing with our own buybacks, buying back at a very attractive yield our own shares in the market. And so, our capital allocation thesis is one that is going to continue to be dynamic, that is looking at creating inherent shareholder value and not trying to be dogmatic about trying to get to a certain target or otherwise, and that is what we will continue to hold on to.

但正如我所說，門檻很高，這個門檻至少會與我們自己的回購競爭，以非常有吸引力的收益率在市場上回購我們自己的股票。因此，我們的資本配置論點將繼續保持活力，即著眼於創造內在股東價值，而不是教條式地試圖達到某個目標或其他目標，這也是我們將繼續堅持的。

Thank you for that. There are those questions, Josh. Let's go to the next ones, please, Luke.

謝謝你。有這些問題，喬希。路克，我們進入下一個吧。

Michele Della Vigna, Goldman Sachs.

米歇爾·德拉·維尼亞，高盛。

Thank you and congratulations on the strong results. Two questions if I may. First, I was just wondering if you could comment a little bit more on the resilience of your current buyback program to temporary lower moves in the oil price. Some of your peers are starting to show that, if oil went to $60 or below, probably the quantum would change. How would you feel about that?

謝謝您並祝賀您取得如此優異的成績。我可以問兩個問題。首先，我只是想知道您是否可以進一步評論一下您目前的回購計劃對油價暫時下跌的抵禦能力。您的一些同行開始表示，如果油價跌至 60 美元或以下，量可能會改變。您對此有何感想？

And then secondly, I wanted to come back to LNG. It was very helpful, the comment that this rate of earnings in the Integrated Gas business is probably the new normal, but I was wondering if you could perhaps expand a bit more into some of the moving parts for the next one to two years, including the contract expiry, the growth in LNG Canada, the unwinding of some of the hedges taken on during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and also what is probably going to be a more oversupplied LNG market. Thank you.

其次，我想回到 LNG。關於綜合天然氣業務的盈利率可能是新常態的評論非常有幫助，但我想知道您是否可以進一步擴展到未來一到兩年的一些活動部分，包括合約到期、加拿大液化天然氣的增長、俄羅斯-烏克蘭衝突期間進行的一些對沖的解除，以及可能出現的液化天然氣市場供應過剩的情況。謝謝。

Thank you for that, Michele. Do you want to touch on the first one, Sinead?

謝謝你，米歇爾。你想談談第一個問題嗎，Sinead？

Absolutely. So thank you, and I think we talked about it a little bit with Lydia's question as well. So we can look at it in different ways. So from a static point of view, where are we? You know as well as I do that we have a balance sheet which is very strong. We're sitting at below 20% in terms of gearing.

絕對地。所以謝謝你，我想我們也討論過莉迪亞的問題。所以我們可以用不同的方式來看待它。那麼從靜態的角度來看，我們處於什麼位置？您和我一樣清楚，我們的資產負債表非常強勁。我們的負債比率低於 20%。

And of course, we can look at it from that perspective and each quarter we do look at how are we going to take a decision quarter by quarter, but we also need to look at it from a dynamic perspective as well. And we've got the reality is it's not just static, it is dynamic, and it's not just impacted by the macro.

當然，我們可以從這個角度來看這個問題，每個季度我們都會研究如何逐季做出決策，但我們也需要從動態的角度來看待這個問題。而我們的現實是，它不僅僅是靜態的，它是動態的，而且它不僅受到宏觀的影響。

Of course, what we have to do is, and you've heard me say this a few times that we have to look through the quarter in terms of that cash flow volatility for that specific quarter, but beyond that we have to look through the long term, medium term and long-term fundamentals. So are they going to persist or not? So where do we believe the macro is going to go?

當然，我們必須做的是，你們已經聽我說過幾次了，我們必須從特定季度的現金流波動角度來審視該季度，但除此之外，我們還必須審視長期、中期和長期基本面。那麼他們還會堅持下去嗎？那麼我們認為宏觀經濟將會走向何方？

That means of course that whilst I consciously have been repositioning the balance sheet in terms of its strength, we also have the ability to look at different levers, and those levers are quite broad. We have OpEx levers and CapEx levers, and we've discussed those, but there are other factors to consider as well.

這當然意味著，雖然我有意識地根據資產負債表的實力重新定位，但我們也有能力考慮不同的槓桿，而且這些槓桿相當廣泛。我們有營運支出槓桿和資本支出槓桿，我們已經討論過這些，但還有其他因素需要考慮。

And those include things like the divestment proceeds from strategic moves that we've made as well. All of that allows us to have considerable predictability in terms of our results. So remember we're at the moment in terms of that 40% to 50% distribution level. We're at 46% in terms of gearing -- we're at 19%, so I'm very comfortable where we are.

這些包括我們採取的策略性措施所帶來的撤資收益。所有這些都使得我們對結果具有相當的可預測性。所以請記住，我們目前的分佈水準是 40% 到 50%。我們的負債比率為 46%——我們的負債比率為 19%，所以我對目前的狀況非常滿意。

Do you want me to take the LNG one?

你想讓我搭乘 LNG 嗎？

Sure, please go ahead.

當然，請繼續。

Sorry, apologies. In terms of the LNG side of things as well, we'd a little bit gone into it. Our thinking is that where LNG is at the moment it feels much more like the new representative of the norm. And why is that? There's a number of things there. We talked about volatility earlier, the fact that the volatility has changed.

抱歉，抱歉。就液化天然氣方面而言，我們也進行了一些深入研究。我們的想法是，液化天然氣目前的情況更像是新常態的代表。這是為什麼呢？那裡有很多東西。我們之前談到了波動性，事實上波動性已經改變了。

If you were to look back to 2019 and then look back to just at the war, you could see a difference, and we're now back to pre-war in terms of volatility. But beyond that, of course, there's a number of things that come into play as well. There's the product mix that we have as well, and that product mix changes.

如果你回顧 2019 年，然後再回顧戰爭，你會發現不同，就波動性而言，我們現在又回到了戰前的狀態。但除此之外，當然還有很多因素也會發揮作用。我們也有產品組合，而且產品組合會改變。

So we have flat price coming through. That of course has dropped. You also see, of course, where our volumes coming from. Some of those legacy contracts have rolled off, but also so too have some of the hedges that we have. That portfolio mix is very key, and you'll see that change as we see some of the molecules coming in and the change in those contracts. So it's really about that portfolio mix.

因此，我們的價格是固定的。當然，這個數字已經下降了。當然，您也會看到我們的交易量來自哪裡。一些遺留合約已經終止，但我們的一些對沖也已終止。投資組合組合非常關鍵，隨著一些分子的進入和合約的變化，你會看到這種變化。所以這其實與投資組合有關。

Excellent. Thank you very much, Sinead. Michele, thank you for those questions. Luke, let's go to the next one please.

出色的。非常感謝，Sinead。米歇爾，謝謝你提出這些問題。路克，請我們進入下一個話題。

Biraj Borkhataria, RBC.

Biraj Borkhataria，RBC。

Hi. Thanks for taking my question. The first one was on LNG Canada. There were some reports around some issues with the ramp up. Could you just unpack that a little bit and let us know whether there's any implications for the timing and ramp up of either train one or train two?

你好。感謝您回答我的問題。第一個是關於加拿大液化天然氣（LNG）的。有一些關於提升過程中出現的問題的報告。您能否稍微解釋一下這個問題並讓我們知道這對第一列或第二列列車的時間安排和提升是否有任何影響？

And then the second question is just a very specific one on the cash flow this quarter. CFFO headline numbers were flattered by the one-off sort of cash return from the NAM JV. Could you give a sense of what we should expect going forward that whether it's once a year and if there's anything penciled in for 2026. Thank you.

第二個問題是關於本季現金流的一個非常具體的問題。CFFO 整體數字因 NAM JV 的一次性現金回報而有所提升。您能否介紹我們對未來的期望，是否每年一次，以及 2026 年是否有任何計劃。謝謝。

Thanks, Biraj. Let me take the first one and then ask Sinead to address the second one. LNG Canada, super proud of the team. I mean this is a massive project. We brought the first part of train one on stream. It's been running steady and stable. We're essentially churning out a cargo at the moment every eight days, and as we progress the ramp up of train one that moves to [1] every four days, and so on and so forth as you get into train two.

謝謝，Biraj。讓我先回答第一個問題，然後請 Sinead 回答第二個問題。LNG 加拿大隊，我為這支隊伍感到非常自豪。我的意思是這是一個龐大的項目。我們已將第一列火車的第一部分投入運行。它一直運作平穩。目前，我們基本上每八天生產一批貨物，隨著第一列火車的進展，我們每四天生產一批貨物，依此類推，直到第二列火車。

The ramp up profile is very much in line with what we had expected. So indeed I've read the article. I still scratch my head as to some elements of it. Suffice it to say we are very pleased with the momentum that we're seeing in LNG Canada and the work that the team is doing there, and very much looking forward to as we get over the next month or two to start to see train two as well ramping up so. Indeed excited by the opportunities that brings.

成長情況與我們的預期非常一致。我確實讀過這篇文章。我對它的一些元素仍然感到困惑。可以這麼說，我們對 LNG Canada 的發展勢頭以及團隊在那裡所做的工作感到非常高興，並且非常期待在接下來的一兩個月裡看到二號生產線的順利運作。確實對由此帶來的機會感到興奮。

Maybe a couple of points around LNG Canada since we are on it. I think it's important to recognize the iconic nature of this project. We're talking about significantly shorter transit routes to get us to Asia. Of course, this is predominantly uncontracted volumes for us that allows us to be able to trade around that.

因為我們在 LNG Canada 附近，所以可能有幾個點。我認為認識到這個項目的標誌性性質非常重要。我們正在討論如何透過更短的交通路線到達亞洲。當然，這對我們來說主要是未簽約的交易量，這使我們能夠圍繞該交易量進行交易。

And that's particularly important back to Sinead's point earlier, because we have gone back to the pre-2022 volatility and mentioned the fact that the earnings of this quarter are more of the new normal. It's important to have some of that optionality so that when volatility comes into the market, we can use some of these cargoes to trade around.

回到 Sinead 之前的觀點，這一點尤其重要，因為我們回顧了 2022 年之前的波動，並提到本季度的收益更符合新常態。擁有一些可選性非常重要，這樣當市場出現波動時，我們就可以利用其中一些貨物進行交易。

But I do think LNG Canada is a critical part of our overall portfolio going forward and does of course create a bit of an offset for some of those advantage contracts which have rolled off as you're fully aware of. Second point --

但我確實認為，液化天然氣加拿大是我們未來整體投資組合中的關鍵組成部分，當然，正如您所知，它確實對一些已經到期的優勢合約產生了一些抵消作用。第二點--

Absolutely. And Biraj, you're correct in terms of the non-dividend, just to remind you that what in effect has occurred is a zero impact on cash. So in terms of free cash flow or net debt, zero impact. But you're right, it did flow through two different parts, CFFO and CFFO ex-working capital.

絕對地。Biraj，關於非股息，您說得對，只是提醒您，實際上發生的情況是，對現金沒有影響。因此，就自由現金流或淨債務而言，影響為零。但你是對的，它確實流經兩個不同的部分，CFFO 和 CFFO 前營運資本。

So it was a working capital move as well. But just to make sure there is no flattery on our free cash flow, nor on our bottom line in terms of the net debt, and ultimately what will occur in the next year or so, it will be up to NAM as a joint venture to decide on dividends each year. So whether they go ahead with that, I can't comment.

所以這也是一次營運資金的轉移。但為了確保我們的自由現金流、淨債務的底線不會被誇大，以及最終明年左右會發生什麼，每年的股息將由 NAM 作為合資企業來決定。因此，他們是否會繼續這樣做，我無法評論。

Thank you, Sinead. Biraj, thank you for that. Luke, can we go to the next question, please?

謝謝你，Sinead。Biraj，謝謝你。路克，我們可以進入下一個問題嗎？

Doug Leggett, Wolf Research.

道格‧萊格特（Doug Leggett），沃爾夫研究公司。

Thanks. Good morning or good afternoon, everybody. Thanks for taking my questions. Wael, I wonder if I could ask you about the commentary around LNG, I think if I heard Sinead correctly, she said, this is the new normal. But in your preview, you said trading and optimization will be significantly lower than Q1 '25.

謝謝。大家早安或下午好。感謝您回答我的問題。Wael，我想知道我是否可以問您有關 LNG 的評論，如果我沒聽錯的話，Sinead 說道，這就是新常態。但在您的預覽中，您說交易和優化將明顯低於 25 年第一季。

And obviously, there's a lot of questions over what the spot market could look like over the next five years. So what level of confidence do you have that LNG trading can come back to, I guess, what you would call normalized levels? That's my first question.

顯然，人們對未來五年現貨市場的發展前景有許多疑問。那麼，您對液化天然氣交易能夠恢復到所謂的正常水平有多大信心？這是我的第一個問題。

My follow-up is on cash flow very quickly. And that is, Sinead, you talk often about cash flow from operations, but you've got $2 billion-plus below the operating line on interest and lease costs. Where does that factor into your comfort with the buyback program?

我的後續工作很快就會關注現金流。也就是說，Sinead，您經常談論經營活動產生的現金流，但您的利息和租賃成本卻低於營業線 20 億多美元。這對您對回購計畫的滿意度有何影響？

Super, thank you for that, Doug. Let me take the first one and then hand over to Sinead for the second one. I think -- so where is the LNG market, right? Let's start off with, of course, prices are now sort of steadying at around $10 to $12 per million BTU.

太棒了，謝謝你，道格。讓我拿第一個，然後把第二個交給 Sinead。我認為——那麼液化天然氣市場在哪裡，對嗎？首先，當然，價格現在穩定在每百萬 BTU 10 至 12 美元左右。

Again, roughly what we had seen in the pre '22 timeframe, the volatility similarly is sitting in that space for different reasons by the way. Today, we see for example strength in Europe. We see maybe weakness in China, in particular on the industrial demand side.

再一次，大致就像我們在 22 年之前的時間範圍內所看到的那樣，由於不同的原因，波動性同樣處於那個空間。例如，今天我們看到了歐洲的實力。我們可能看到中國經濟疲軟，特別是在工業需求方面。

So the way that those trades around the world are playing up is changing. But there is no question that the attractiveness of LNG as a versatile, resilient energy form continues to be something that's key, and we continue to believe that there is a very exciting runway for LNG growing by 60% between now and 2040.

因此，世界各地的貿易方式正在改變。但毫無疑問，液化天然氣作為一種多功能、有彈性的能源形式的吸引力仍然是關鍵，我們仍然相信，從現在到 2040 年，液化天然氣將擁有非常令人興奮的成長前景，成長率達到 60%。

But then let's get specifically then on what we mean by this as a normalized quarter. So given that we start to look more like the pre-2022 realities, at that level of volatility at these price points, what you see this quarter in terms of trading is indeed much more of what the new normal looks like.

但接下來讓我們具體了解一下正常化季度的含義。因此，鑑於我們開始更像 2022 年之前的現實，在這些價格點的波動水平下，您在本季度看到的交易情況確實更像新常態。

Q1 had some really exciting arbitrage opportunities that played out. Hopefully, we see more of those in the future. What I'm trying to say is at the end of the day we have to be able to plan on the basis of what we see and then of course take advantage of the opportunities as they come.

Q1 出現了一些非常令人興奮的套利機會。希望我們未來能看到更多這樣的作品。我想說的是，最終我們必須能夠根據所見所聞進行規劃，然後抓住出現的機會。

As arbitrage opportunities come, we'll try to take them, but in terms of the baseline planning for us, we think this is more of a reflective quarter and it allows us to be able to continue to position the portfolio for strength as we go into the coming quarters.

隨著套利機會的出現，我們會嘗試抓住它們，但就我們的基準規劃而言，我們認為這更像是一個反思性的季度，它使我們能夠在未來幾個季度繼續保持投資組合的強勁勢頭。

There is more supply coming into the portfolio through LNG Canada, through Pavilion and so on and so forth, but remember, we've also lost supply, some very advantaged supply contracts that we had in the past, and that's what we're looking to be able to offset and over time be able to continue to improve on. Sinead?

透過 LNG Canada、Pavilion 等方式，我們的投資組合獲得了更多的供應，但請記住，我們也失去了一些供應，一些我們過去擁有的非常有利的供應合同，而這正是我們希望能夠彌補的，並且隨著時間的推移能夠繼續改進。西妮德？

And on the second one, Doug, absolutely, of course I consider all cash movements into free cash flows as well. So whether that is just the CFFO bit, but of course the CapEx impact, which obviously comes off that as well, and of course anything that flows through from an interest point of view or from leases.

關於第二個問題，道格，當然，我也會將所有現金流視為自由現金流。因此，這是否只是 CFFO 的一部分，當然還有資本支出的影響，這顯然也是由此產生的，當然還有從利益角度或租賃角度流經的任何事物。

So all of that gets considered whenever we consider just what are we going to do in terms of those value versus risk decisions each and every quarter. And those lease payments that you refer to in there as well. I mentioned one earlier of Mirra 4 being one, but of course there are more leases that come into our portfolio, it was only one that I mentioned earlier.

因此，當我們考慮每個季度在價值與風險決策方面要做什麼時，所有這些都會被考慮。還有您提到的那些租賃付款。我之前提到過 Mirra 4 就是其中之一，但當然我們的投資組合中還有更多的租賃，我之前提到的只是其中之一。

So that is very much just a consideration that comes through, but of course, it's all about value and of course those lease payments are ones that actually generate future cash as well. So we utilize those underlying assets. So, yeah, part of the consideration doesn't change where I stand in terms of 40% to 50% being sacrosanct in terms of distributions in terms of CFFO and being very comfortable with where my balance sheet is now.

所以這只是一個考慮因素，但當然，這一切都與價值有關，當然這些租賃付款實際上也會產生未來的現金。因此我們利用這些基礎資產。所以，是的，部分考慮不會改變我的立場，即 40% 到 50% 的 CFFO 分配是不可侵犯的，而且我對我現在的資產負債表狀況非常滿意。

Thank you for that, Sinead. Luke, let's go to the next question, please.

謝謝你，Sinead。盧克，請我們進入下一個問題。

Alastair Syme, Citi.

花旗銀行的阿拉斯泰爾‧西姆 (Alastair Syme)。

Hi, well, Sinead, Monaca, how far away are you from being profitable on this asset? And you alluded to potentially looking at JV structures and a strategy. Why does bringing in a partner help improve the performance of the business?

嗨，Sinead、Monaca，你們距離從這項資產中獲利還有多遠？您提到可能會考慮合資企業結構和策略。為什麼引進合作夥伴有助於提升業務績效？

And my second question is on biofuels. I mean a year ago, you hit the pause button on the Rotterdam project. I'm wondering if sort of one year on, you've got any reflections on what you want to do with that project and indeed, probably your biofuel strategy as a whole, given that politicians still seem intent on raising mandates?

我的第二個問題是關於生物燃料的。我的意思是，一年前，你們暫停了鹿特丹計畫。我想知道，一年過去了，鑑於政客們似乎仍然熱衷於提高授權，您是否對要如何處理該項目以及整個生物燃料戰略有什麼想法？

Thanks for those 2 questions, Alastair. Let me touch on those. On Monaca, what we have said indeed is we will look at strategic and partnering opportunities for the whole of the US. What we have reflected on is we have a terrific asset at that, advantaged in many ways, right? It's uniquely located in a part of the world where we are able to reach a significant portion of the customers that need that product.

謝謝你提出這兩個問題，阿拉斯泰爾。讓我來談談這些。關於莫納卡，我們確實說過，我們將為整個美國尋找策略和合作機會。我們所反思的是，我們在這方面擁有極佳的資產，在許多方面都具有優勢，對嗎？它位於世界上一個獨特的地方，在這裡我們能夠接觸到大量需要該產品的客戶。

We have fiscal advantages there from the state. We have access to an attractively priced resource as well. The issue is it's our only one, our only major facility. And that's why we said we're not the natural owner of that asset. Ideally, you want to be able to leverage that with two, three other plants and create optimization opportunities as we do, for example, with our LNG facilities around the world, where we can meet our customer demands through different channels at different points in time, take advantage of opportunities when one plant is shut down to supply from the other one and so on and so forth.

我們擁有來自國家財政的優勢。我們還可以獲得價格極具吸引力的資源。問題是這是我們唯一的、唯一的主要設施。這就是為什麼我們說我們不是該資產的自然所有者。理想情況下，您希望能夠利用另外兩三個工廠的優勢，像我們一樣創造優化機會，例如，利用我們在世界各地的液化天然氣設施，我們可以在不同時間點通過不同的渠道滿足客戶需求，利用一個工廠關閉時的機會從另一個工廠供應，等等。

Not to mention the obvious synergies on costs and the like. And so, what we are looking at is, again, not dogmatically but looking at how we can unlock more value, having reached the conclusion that we are not the natural operator and owner of that asset.

更不用說在成本等方面明顯的綜效。因此，我們再次強調，我們不是教條地考慮，而是考慮如何釋放更多價值，因為我們得出的結論是，我們不是該資產的天然運營者和所有者。

What I would say is, of course, the conditions in the market mean that it's not easy to be able to transact on something like that immediately. But we continue to have discussions, and we'll update you, of course, in due course as appropriate.

當然，我想說的是，市場狀況意味著要立即進行這樣的交易並不容易。但我們會繼續進行討論，當然，我們會在適當的時候向您通報最新情況。

Little to say on our Rotterdam facility at this stage, we continue to review the options. Of course, we are looking at the backdrop of the market. We see it's a market at the moment that is, I'd say, challenged, challenged because of excess supply coming in from the US, from Asia, but also there's been some backtracking on mandates here in Europe.

目前，我們關於鹿特丹工廠的報導不多，我們將繼續審查各種選擇。當然，我們正在觀察市場的背景。我們看到，目前市場面臨挑戰，挑戰來自於來自美國、亞洲的過剩供應，歐洲的授權也出現了一些倒退。

And so, I think to what you implied in your question, it is a weaker market. Having said that, this is one of the first levers you would look at for decarbonization, and the desk that we have, the trading desk that is continuing to be able to source bio products and sell into some of our own shorts, which are in the mobility space does very well in this market.

所以，我認為正如你在問題中所暗示的那樣，這是一個較弱的市場。話雖如此，這是脫碳的首要槓桿之一，而我們擁有的交易部門，即能夠繼續採購生物產品並出售給我們自己的一些空頭的交易部門，這些空頭在移動領域在這個市場上表現非常好。

And so, we are being selective around where we deploy capital to make sure that we continue to unlock value in a value chain where we continue to believe we are advantaged.

因此，我們在選擇資本部署地點時會非常謹慎，以確保我們能夠在我們繼續認為自己具有優勢的價值鏈中繼續釋放價值。

Let me pause on that one and go back to Luke, please. Thanks, Alastair.

請讓我暫停一下，然後回到盧克那裡。謝謝，阿拉斯泰爾。

Paul Cheng, Scotiabank.

加拿大豐業銀行的 Paul Cheng。

Thank you. Good morning, or good afternoon, your time. Wael and Sinead, just curious that you haven't talked much about exploration. But in order for you to sustain the liquid production or maybe at some point that maybe that to even grow it, this is a depicting asset base. So do you think you have the right size of the exploration program? Or do you think that you need to step it up? And do you want to step it up?

謝謝。早安，或下午好，你們的時間。Wael 和 Sinead，只是好奇你們沒有談論太多關於探索的事情。但為了維持液體產量，或在某個時候甚至可能增加液體產量，這是一個描述資產基礎。那麼您認為您的勘探計畫規模合適嗎？還是您認為需要加大力度？你想進一步加強嗎？

Where is the focus is going to be? And how do you -- the increase need to be in order for you to perhaps be able to use it to replace more of your results?

焦點將會放在哪裡？那麼您怎樣才能增加它以便能夠用它來取代更多的結果？

Second question is on I want to go back into trading, but in a different angle. In the US we do have a President not to treat, day and night on many topics, and unfortunately, that oftentimes when he treats, it will impact the market condition.

第二個問題是我想重新開始交易，但從不同的角度。在美國，我們確實有一位總統，他日夜談論許多話題，不幸的是，當他談論時，往往會影響市場狀況。

So from that standpoint, that's not really tradable. And when you guys manage your trading business, how you take that into consideration, if that means that you would take maybe a risk compare that to previously and correspondingly, your future trading result, everything else equal, will be lower than what it was in the past or that you think you will be able to handle and manage and doesn't really impact your future result and you don't have to change the way how you manage your trading operation. Thank you.

所以從這個角度來看，這實際上是不可交易的。當你們管理貿易業務時，你們如何考慮到這一點，如果這意味著你可能會承擔與以前相比的風險，那麼相應地，你未來的交易結果，在其他所有條件相同的情況下，會低於過去的水平，或者你認為你將能夠處理和管理的水平，並且不會真正影響你未來的結果，你不必改變你管理交易操作的方式。謝謝。

Thank you, Paul. Let me start with the first question and then ask Sinead to address the second one. Exploration, I think our program -- our exploration program is rightsized at the moment. We went through a significant reset, I would say, of our exploration department, capability, the funnel because the hard truth is while we have had some good progress in certain areas, it hasn't delivered what we had wanted.

謝謝你，保羅。我先回答第一個問題，然後請 Sinead 回答第二個問題。探索，我認為我們的計劃—我們的探索計劃目前規模合適。我想說，我們對勘探部門、能力和管道進行了重大調整，因為殘酷的事實是，雖然我們在某些領域取得了一些良好進展，但並沒有達到我們的預期。

So we have rightsized the spend. We have refocused. We have challenged ourselves to raise the bar on how we can deliver better results for every dollar we're spending in exploration. The areas where we continue to invest in our basins where we have established track records like the Gulf of America, areas like Malaysia, like Oman, where we have also significant assets and more.

因此，我們調整了支出規模。我們已經重新集中註意力。我們不斷挑戰自己，力求讓在勘探上投入的每一美元都發揮出更好的效果。我們繼續在已建立業績記錄的盆地進行投資的地區，例如美洲灣、馬來西亞、阿曼等地區，我們在這些地區也擁有大量資產等等。

We also selectively look at opportunities. Of course, you know we have Namibia. There, we are looking at what others are doing, continuing to learn and positioning ourselves in case something interesting comes up. And so, our exploration portfolio, I think, is one now that is getting grounded into a better place.

我們也會選擇性地尋找機會。當然，你知道我們有納米比亞。在那裡，我們觀察其他人在做什麼，繼續學習，並針對有趣的事情出現進行自我定位。因此，我認為，我們的勘探組合現在正朝著更好的方向發展。

We have some exciting wells coming in the next, I'd say, 6 to 12 months, which I'm looking forward to seeing what will come out of that. While always recognizing, of course, exploration, we play the long game. But the levels that we are investing in, I think are the right ones, and I'm very confident in this reset that the team has now put into place. I'm very confident in the quality of leadership that we have, and I'm excited by the opportunities that are coming through. Sinead?

我想說，在接下來的 6 到 12 個月內，我們將會有一些令人興奮的油井投入使用，我期待著看到它們會帶來什麼成果。當然，我們始終體認到探索的重要性，但我們打的是長遠之計。但我認為，我們所投資的水平是正確的，而且我對團隊現在已經實施的這項重置非常有信心。我對我們的領導特質非常有信心，並且對即將到來的機會感到興奮。西妮德？

Thank you, Paul. You're really asking about sort of the impact on trading with geopolitical uncertainty and how we handle that, et cetera. So this is one of those moments where having a very high-quality trading team matters, and we do. Our capability, I do believe, is second to none. And that team has the ability to be able to focus in on what matters, and they will make the calls quarter-to-quarter.

謝謝你，保羅。您實際上想問的是地緣政治不確定性對貿易的影響以及我們如何應對這種影響等等。因此，在這種時候，擁有一支高素質的交易團隊非常重要，而我們確實如此。我確實相信，我們的能力是首屈一指的。團隊有能力專注於重要的事情，並且他們會按季度做出決定。

They have fundamentally an excellent set of assets, which they can optimize around. And for them, it's all about making sure that we have those assets up and running and being able to provide the molecules that they can then optimize and put into the right place to take advantage of that.

他們基本上擁有一套優秀的資產，可以圍繞這些資產進行最佳化。對他們來說，最重要的是確保這些資產能夠正常運轉，並能夠提供他們可以優化並放置在正確位置以利用這些資產的分子。

And then secondly, of course, you have on the other side of it, their ability to make judgments, depending on whether or not they're going to trade around fundamentals or whether it's something else that's coming through. And what we've seen is they will make a different call quarter-by-quarter.

其次，當然，另一方面，他們有做出判斷的能力，這取決於他們是否會圍繞基本面進行交易，或者是否有其他情況發生。我們看到的是，他們每季都會做出不同的決定。

But overall, we've seen the Capital Markets Day guidance at the 2% to 4% rightly uplift in the medium term being held and no earnings losses in any quarter, that hasn't changed. Of course, I talked about it earlier, in terms of crude, they made a call to be more prudent this quarter and to be focused in on the fact that they wanted to trade around fundamentals rather than being able to understand what that volatility was, which did seem to be based on fundamentals. And that was the judgment they took and we support them. So we're looking forward to seeing what they deliver for us in the next couple of quarters, full support.

但總體而言，我們看到資本市場日的指導在中期內正確地提高了 2% 至 4%，並且任何季度都沒有盈利損失，這一點沒有改變。當然，我之前談到了這一點，就原油而言，他們呼籲本季度要更加謹慎，並專注於他們希望圍繞基本面進行交易的事實，而不是能夠理解波動性是什麼，這似乎是基於基本面的。這就是他們所做的判斷，我們支持他們。因此，我們期待看到他們在接下來的幾季為我們提供什麼，全力支持。

Thank you, Sinead. Thank you, Paul, for those questions. Luke, let's go to the next question.

謝謝你，Sinead。謝謝保羅提出這些問題。盧克，我們來討論下一個問題。

Lucas Herrmann, BNP.

法國巴黎銀行的盧卡斯·赫爾曼。

Couple of relatively straightforward questions, well, maybe one of them is a little abstract, but Sinead, for you, straightforward divestments this year, can you just remind me where we are in terms of -- well, let's start with, where do you think you'll be divestments for the full year and where what are we on things like colonial and the sums you're expecting to come in at the present time.

幾個相對簡單的問題，好吧，也許其中一個有點抽象，但是 Sinead，對於您來說，今年的直接撤資，您能否提醒我我們處於什麼位置 - 好吧，讓我們首先，您認為您將在全年撤資哪些方面，我們在殖民地等方面處於什麼位置，以及您目前預計獲得的金額是多少。

And the slightly off the wall, Wael is Zabazaba or OPL 245, I only mention it because a number of projects that have been sitting in the portfolio for a long time are starting to come to life, and I wonder whether that's something that one should be thinking about as well. That was it, thanks very much.

稍微離譜的是，Wael 是 Zabazaba 或 OPL 245，我之所以提到它，是因為許多長期存在於投資組合中的項目開始變得活躍起來，我想知道這是否也是我們應該考慮的事情。就是這樣，非常感謝。

Thank you, Lucas. Let me maybe start with the second one, and then Sinead, if you want to address the divestments. Of course, we're looking deep into our funnel of opportunities. And it helps there, Lucas, that we have now really focused our portfolio, in particular, in a place like Nigeria, I think for everyone's benefit, the licenses and the blocks that you refer to are deepwater Nigeria blocks.

謝謝你，盧卡斯。讓我先從第二個問題開始，然後是 Sinead，如果你想解決資產剝離問題的話。當然，我們正在深入研究我們的機會管道。盧卡斯，這很有幫助，我們現在真正集中了我們的投資組合，特別是在尼日利亞這樣的地方，我認為為了每個人的利益，你提到的許可證和區塊是尼日利亞深水區塊。

We are looking at opportunities within the deepwater space to continue to expand. Of course, you know we FID-ed Bonga North. There is the potential for the next phase in Bonga, what we call Bonga Southwest, which would require its own FPSO. That's something which is still work in progress.

我們正在尋找深水領域內繼續擴張的機會。當然，您知道我們對 Bonga North 進行了 FID。Bonga 有可能進入下一階段，我們稱之為 Bonga Southwest，這將需要自己的 FPSO。這項工作仍在進行中。

There are other tieback opportunities, but there's also greenfield opportunities, like (inaudible) and others which are in the area. OPL 245, of course, is one that Eni operates, and we will, of course, defer to them to come up with a plan for that opportunity to see whether it's investable or not.

還有其他回接機會，但也有綠地機會，例如（聽不清楚）和該地區的其他機會。當然，OPL 245 是埃尼公司經營的項目，我們當然會聽從他們的建議，制定計劃來利用這個機會，看看它是否值得投資。

But I think to your broader question, Lucas, in particular, as we see our well costs continue to be attractive vis-a-vis the competitors, as we continue to look at how we have simplified the funnel of project opportunities on the back of something like a Vito, Whale, Sparta, we're learning more and more have to be able to create more value with less resource. And I think we are looking at how we can apply that in different fields, including in Nigeria deepwater.

但我認為，對於你提出的更廣泛的問題，盧卡斯，特別是當我們看到我們的成本相對於競爭對手仍然具有吸引力時，當我們繼續研究如何在 Vito、Whale、Sparta 等產品的支持下簡化專案機會管道時，我們越來越明白必須能夠用更少的資源創造更多的價值。我認為我們正在研究如何將其應用於不同的領域，包括尼日利亞深水區。

And on divestments, Lucas. So the thinking on divestments for this year was not that it was going to be a core part or a needed part of the underlying sort of financial framework. You can see that with the perspective of where we are in gearing.

關於撤資，盧卡斯。因此，今年關於撤資的想法並不是將其作為底層金融框架的核心部分或必要部分。您可以從我們目前的槓桿情況中看到這一點。

So for us, it was more about actually that sort of capital reallocation across the portfolio and cleaning up different aspects of it in line with our strategy. So that's very much what we've been focused on doing. And you've seen that on a couple of things. You see it in our renewables portfolio in particular.

因此，對我們來說，這實際上更多的是關於整個投資組合的資本重新分配，並根據我們的策略清理其不同方面。這正是我們一直致力於做的事情。你已經在許多事物上看到了這一點。您可以在我們的再生能源組合中特別看到這一點。

So we've, of course, just announced a JV with in terms of Savion and indeed with respect to Savion. So you'll see some proceeds come through on that later on. We also, of course, announced divestment of Inspire, which was a B2C in the US that needs to come through as well.

因此，我們當然剛剛宣布與 Savion 建立合資企業，事實上也與 Savion 有關。因此您稍後會看到一些收益。當然，我們也宣布剝離 Inspire，這是一家美國的 B2C 公司，也需要剝離。

But these are not massive amounts of money in the sense of the greater scheme of things, but it's more about aligning with our strategy. Of course, [Bochum] is already done, as you know. And beyond that, of course, there's some mobility and portfolio upgrading that we're doing, which is Mexico, Indonesia and of course, South Africa that still has to come through as well. But again, it's less about the proceeds.

但從更大層次來看，這些資金並不是巨額資金，但這更多是為了符合我們的策略。當然，正如你所知，[波鴻]已經完成了。除此之外，當然，我們還在進行一些流動性和投資組合升級，墨西哥、印度尼西亞，當然還有南非也需要升級。但同樣，這與收益關係不大。

It's more about taking things that don't fit our strategy off the books and actually being able to redeploy OpEx, CapEx, et cetera, elsewhere. [Colonial] is the one that's still to come. And that's hoping to come. I would imagine, we'll see what closes out, but probably in Q3, Q4. So we will see that come through before the end of the year and see those proceeds as well.

這更多的是把那些不符合我們策略的東西從帳面上剔除，然後真正地把營運支出、資本支出等等重新部署到其他地方。 [Colonial] 是即將推出的。我希望這能夠實現。我想，我們會看到最終結果如何，但可能是在第三季或第四季。因此，我們將在年底之前看到這一成果並看到收益。

Thank you, Sinead. Thank you for the questions, Lucas. Let's go to the next question, please.

謝謝你，Sinead。謝謝你的提問，盧卡斯。請讓我們進入下一個問題。

Irene Himona, Bernstein.

艾琳希莫娜，伯恩斯坦。

Thank you very much. I had two questions, both on marketing. First of all, lubricants. I can see fast half earnings are up substantially on flat volume, so your unit EBITDA is up materially. I wonder if you can talk around what is driving that and is it sustainable.

非常感謝。我有兩個問題，都是關於行銷的。首先，潤滑劑。我可以看到，上半年獲利在持平的情況下大幅上漲，因此您的單位 EBITDA 大幅上漲。我想知道您是否可以談談推動這一現象的因素以及它是否可持續。

And then in mobility again, your unit EBITDA margin is the highest in a very long time. I think you referred in your speech to better premium product margins, but mobility includes other things like convenience and e-mobility, etc. You no longer disclose those margins by segment on a quarterly basis. Can you talk around the different moving parts, please, and whether you anticipate the margin improvement to be sustainable? Thank you.

然後在行動領域，您的單位 EBITDA 利潤率在很長一段時間內都是最高的。我認為您在演講中提到了更好的高端產品利潤率，但移動性還包括其他方面，例如便利性和電子移動性等。您不再按季度按部門揭露這些利潤率。您能否談談不同的活動部分，以及您是否預期利潤率的提高是可持續的？謝謝。

Happy to. So in terms of lubricants, well, actually just our marketing segment full stop did really well this quarter. Really pleasing to see just the change that's coming through. So specifically on lubricants, you're correct, margin doing well, which is that premium products growth. Very much the teams are pushing that and making sure we focus on where can we differentiate.

很開心。因此，就潤滑油而言，實際上，我們的行銷部門本季表現非常好。看到正在發生的變化真的很高興。因此，具體到潤滑油方面，您說得對，利潤率表現良好，這是優質產品的成長。各團隊都在大力推動這一點，並確保我們專注於能夠實現差異化的地方。

Of course, we've also had stable base oil pricing. So that's helped a lot. OpEx is very much under control, and they are line by line, making sure that they reduce OpEx there and focusing on where it actually adds value.

當然，我們的基礎油價格也保持穩定。這很有幫助。營運支出 (OpEx) 得到了很好的控制，他們逐行進行，確保降低營運支出，並專注於真正增加價值的地方。

In terms of mobility, which you asked about. Again, it is the premium brands coming through. We did take away the breakdown because we weren't seeing that as being particularly useful. But in terms of premium fuels, it's up over 1% quarter-on-quarter. We're seeing Europe doing very well and Americas.

關於您詢問的移動性方面。再次，高端品牌脫穎而出。我們確實取消了故障，因為我們認為這並不是特別有用。但就優質燃料而言，其價格較上季上漲超過 1%。我們看到歐洲和美洲表現都很好。

The convenience retail is beginning to differentiate, but that depends on where you are. So it's different across the different areas. What I think is probably most key about that and the teams are doing in mobility is they're not trying to play the same aspects in each area.

便利零售開始呈現差異化，但這取決於你所在的位置。所以不同地區的情況有所不同。我認為最關鍵的一點以及各支球隊在機動性方面所做的就是他們不會試圖在每個區域發揮相同的作用。

They're looking at how can they make the most money and extract the most value, and it's country by country, and that's what you're seeing come through. So slightly different tweak and strategy for each one of them, and it's playing out in the overall numbers.

他們正在研究如何賺取最多的錢並獲得最大的價值，而且他們針對每個國家都採取了不同的做法，而這正是你所看到的。因此，對於每個項目，調整和策略都會略有不同，並在總體數字上反映出來。

And I'd maybe just add, I think there's more to go. I'm excited by what the marketing team has been doing, two, three years ago, when we came together in CMD23, we laid out a vision for that business. We reset the expectations, and they have followed through on it and have pushed even beyond that.

我可能還想補充一點，我認為還有很多事情要做。我對行銷團隊所做的事情感到興奮，兩三年前，當我們在 CMD23 聚在一起時，我們為這項業務制定了一個願景。我們重新設定了期望，而他們也確實實現了這個目標，甚至超越了我們的期望。

And I think there's more to do. But it's a great example of how we're going about trying to turn around some of our underperforming businesses. I mean we were clear in Capital Markets Day '25, $45 billion of our capital employed is returning nothing at the moment or close to nothing.

我認為還有很多事情要做。但它是一個很好的例子，說明我們如何努力扭轉一些表現不佳的業務。我的意思是，我們在 25 年資本市場日就明確表示，我們投入的 450 億美元資本目前沒有任何回報或幾乎沒有任何回報。

And so, this is the opportunity for us. If we can truly unlock the full potential of those businesses, and if not, how we recycle capital, we reallocate that capital to the higher-returning businesses, therein lies an exciting opportunity that we have.

所以，這是我們的機會。如果我們能夠真正釋放這些企業的全部潛力，如果不能，我們如何回收資本，如何將資本重新分配給回報更高的企業，這就是我們擁有的一個令人興奮的機會。

Irene, thank you very much for those questions. Luke, let's go to the next question, please.

艾琳，非常感謝您提出這些問題。盧克，請我們進入下一個問題。

Christopher Kuplent, Bank of America.

美國銀行的克里斯多福·庫普倫特（Christopher Kuplent）。

Yeah. Thank you for taking my questions. One quickly to mop up on the quarter, again, marketing. It's also outperforming on much less CapEx than you told us about their budget at the CMD in March. So I wondered whether you can give us a steer on that, considering the very light run rate for the first half.

是的。感謝您回答我的問題。首先要快速完成本季的工作，再次是行銷。它的資本支出遠低於您在 3 月的 CMD 會議上告訴我們的預算。因此，考慮到上半年的運行率非常低，我想知道您是否可以給我們指導。

And then one for you, Sinead, and I can see your eyes roll already. The question around buyback, balance sheet payout, I think you've given us many ways to show you're comfortable. But let me ask you a mean question. You've had, for a number of years, a 30% to 40% payout ratio and paid out above that. Can we therefore assume that if you stood above 50% that you'd still answer in the same way, pointing to balance sheet strength in that hypothetical scenario, of course? Thank you.

接下來是你的，Sinead，我已經看到你的眼睛轉動了。關於回購、資產負債表支出的問題，我想您已經向我們提供了許多方法來表明您對此感到滿意。但請容許我問你一個尖刻的問題。多年來，您的派息率一直保持在 30% 至 40%，並且還高於這個數字。因此，我們是否可以假設，如果您處於 50% 以上的位置，您仍然會以相同的方式回答，當然，在這種假設情況下，指的是資產負債表實力？謝謝。

Would you like me to take both?

你想讓我兩者都服用嗎？

Yeah. Why not take both.

是的。為什麼不兩者兼具呢？

I would never eye roll, Christopher, of course. So let me take them both. So the first one in terms of mobility CapEx. You're right, it's light on CapEx at the moment into the sort of middle of this year. What we've asked the team to focus on is really extracting the maximum return they can.

我當然不會翻白眼，克里斯多福。所以讓我把它們都拿走。因此，就行動資本支出而言，這是第一個。你說得對，目前到今年年中，資本支出很少。我們要求團隊真正專注的是獲取最大回報。

They've had a lot of CapEx in the past and they now need to show that they can return against this. They also need to put the right opportunities to us to show the right returns, and then we're willing to release more. But 80% of the cash CapEx is into 10 key markets for mobility. So that focus is working, and you're seeing that. So let's encourage that to continue and be able to extract even more results from that.

他們過去已經投入了大量資本支出，現在他們需要證明自己能夠收回成本。他們還需要向我們提供正確的機會以展示正確的回報，然後我們才願意釋放更多。但 80% 的現金資本支出都投入了 10 個關鍵的行動市場。所以這種關注是有效的，而且您也看到了這一點。因此，讓我們鼓勵這種做法繼續下去，並能夠從中獲得更多成果。

So your second part, which was around the buyback and the comfort level around us. So you're right. I mean, we have moved from 20% to 30% to 30% to 40% to 40% to 50%. I am saying that 40% to 50% is sacrosanct. Where are we standing at the moment, we're sitting at 46%, as you know, in terms of that on a rolling four quarter basis.

所以你的第二部分是關於回購和我們周圍的舒適度。所以你是對的。我的意思是，我們已經從 20% 上升到 30%，再上升到 30%，再上升到 40%，再上升到 40%，最後上升到 50%。我說的是 40% 到 50% 是不可侵犯的。我們目前的狀況是，如您所知，以連續四個季度計算，我們的成長率為 46%。

You're asking specifically the question of, will we move above 50%? That's really what's underlying there. To be able to do that, we need to believe it's the best capital allocation decision for the quarter or for the company, actually, more importantly, and then in that specific quarter. And we've had that conversation a little bit. I've alluded to it earlier as well.

您特別想問的是，我們會超過 50% 嗎？這確實是潛在問題。為了做到這一點，我們需要相信這是該季度或整個公司最好的資本配置決策，實際上，更重要的是，在那個特定季度。我們已經就此進行過一些討論。我之前也提到過這一點。

That is a competition that we have, between Wael and myself, at the Board level, et cetera. Just thinking through quarter-to-quarter, what is that value versus risk decision that we need to make. And of course, we look at the company performance. We look at the macro, and I said it before, short term isn't just the point, it has to be about what our belief is and whether that macro will continue to persist into the medium term and the long term, and we'll see what goes about that.

這是我們之間的競爭，在董事會層級等等，我和瓦伊爾之間。只要逐季思考，我們需要做出的價值與風險決策是什麼。當然，我們也會關注公司的業績。我們來看看宏觀，我之前說過，短期並不是重點，還必須考慮我們的信念是什麼，以及宏觀是否會持續到中期和長期，我們將拭目以待。

So no eye roll, I promise. But I'm just saying to you, I do believe in the strength of the balance sheet, I will lean on it and we will make the decision that is appropriate for the company on a value lens.

所以我保證，你不會翻白眼的。但我只是想告訴你，我確實相信資產負債表的實力，我會依靠它，我們會從價值的角度做出適合公司的決定。

Let me maybe help you, Sinead, because I think you've been asked the question every which way. What I would say is the following. The 40% to 50% that Sinead has described as sacrosanct is one that we have been very, very clear on. This is one that we're going to be committed to through the cycle.

也許我可以幫你，Sinead，因為我認為你已經以各種方式被問到過這個問題。我想說的是以下幾點。Sinead 所描述的 40% 到 50% 是不可侵犯的，這一點我們非常非常清楚。這是我們在整個週期中將致力於的事情。

We're going to generate our free cash flow through all the improvements that we have talked about, and we have said very clearly that we will continue to preferentially allocate towards buybacks because we do believe that is the best capital allocation decision for us at this point in time.

我們將透過我們討論過的所有改進來產生我們的自由現金流，並且我們已經非常明確地表示，我們將繼續優先分配回購，因為我們確實相信這是目前對我們來說最好的資本配置決策。

So we're absolutely committed to it. And you've seen us continue to deliver on that. I would also say that we still have a lot more to unlock from this company. There is a lot more to come, whether it is from the OpEx opportunities that we see, which are moving faster than planned.

所以我們絕對致力於此。並且您已經看到我們繼續實現這一目標。我還想說，我們還有很多東西需要從這家公司挖掘出來。未來還會有更多，無論是從我們看到的 OpEx 機會來看，其發展速度都比計劃的要快。

We still, as I mentioned a moment ago, have unproductive capital that we need to be able to do better on. We still have businesses that we are looking to take to the next level of outstanding performance. Indeed, I think Sinead touched earlier on some potential strategic divestments that we have coming through, which will bring in proceeds.

正如我剛才提到的，我們仍然擁有非生產性資本，我們需要更好地利用它們。我們仍在尋求將一些業務提升到更高水平的卓越表現。事實上，我認為 Sinead 之前提到我們正在進行的一些潛在的策略撤資，這些撤資將帶來收益。

So we are in a position where we have the capital to be able to actually stand there and make some choices. And what we are looking at every time we take one of those choices is what is the best use of that capital to unlock intrinsic shareholder value.

因此，我們有足夠的資本來真正站在那裡做出一些選擇。每次我們做出選擇時，我們都在考慮如何最好地利用這些資本來釋放內在股東價值。

Again, not being dogmatic, but looking at, at that point in time, what is it. And at some point, we will be looking at more buybacks. At other points, we are looking at acquisition, as we've done with the last three that I've mentioned. Those are all the right steps at that point in time. But we don't want to sort of give a blanket answer other than to say, please trust us to allocate in the best way that we think is there for our shareholders.

再說一次，不是教條主義，而是看看在那個時間點，它是什麼。在某個時候，我們會考慮更多的回購。在其他時候，我們正在考慮收購，就像我提到的最後三個收購一樣。在當時，這些都是正確的步驟。但我們不想給出一個籠統的答案，只想說，請相信我們會以我們認為對股東最有利的方式分配。

Let's go to the next question, please, Luke.

盧克，請我們進入下一個問題。

Ryan Todd, Piper Sandler.

瑞恩·托德、派珀·桑德勒。

Thanks. Maybe one in the Gulf of Mexico or at least at Whale, the project, it looks like the ramp if that project went very well. Can you talk about this in the context of improving operational performance overall, but also maybe specifically in the basin, the Gulf of Mexico, which seems to continue exceeding expectations.

謝謝。也許在墨西哥灣或至少在鯨魚項目中有一個，如果該項目進展順利的話，它看起來就像一個坡道。您能否從提高整體營運績效的角度來談談這個問題，也許具體來說，是提高墨西哥灣盆地的營運績效，因為墨西哥灣的營運績效似乎繼續超出預期。

How does that improvement and maybe even the change in administration play into how you think about opportunities for sustaining volumes or growth going forward there?

這種改進，甚至是管理階層的變動，對您如何看待維持未來銷售或成長的機會有何影響？

And then maybe on refining. So the markets are really tight, which have been sustaining margins. Can you maybe talk about how you think about refining market dynamics looking into 2026. So whether your portfolio is now where you want it to be there?

然後也許進行精煉。因此市場確實緊張，因而維持了利潤率。您能否談談您對 2026 年市場動態改進的看法？那麼，您的投資組合現在是否達到了您想要的水平？

Ryan, thank you for those questions. Let me address them. Very pleased with Whale ramp up. You'll recall we started with this template on Vito. We then carried it across to Whale, and we're in the process of carrying it across to Sparta as well.

Ryan，謝謝你提出這些問題。讓我來回答這些問題。對鯨魚的增加感到非常高興。您會記得我們是在 Vito 上從這個模板開始的。然後我們將它帶到了鯨魚港，現在我們也正在將它帶到斯巴達港。

It's achieved nameplate -- Whale has achieved nameplate capacity within five months of first oil delivery, which is outstanding, right? The wells have delivered what we had hoped. The performance all the way through the project, whether it was the drilling of the wells, the construction was all very much as per plan. I think to your point around the underlying operational performance, why is Whale different than maybe the old model of projects we had.

它已經達到了額定容量——Whale 在首次交付石油後的五個月內就達到了額定容量，這很出色，對吧？這些油井實現了我們所期望的效果。整個工程的表現，無論是鑽井或施工，都完全按照計畫進行。我認為，關於您提到的底層營運績效，為什麼 Whale 與我們以前的專案模式不同。

We have looked as much as possible to be able to simplify the setup to really get much more rigorous in the way we maintain our equipment and not allowing for redundancies and the like but really making sure that we are focused on delivering with the equipment that we have. I do think it is symptomatic of the improvement that we have seen in the Gulf of America across our asset base, by the way.

我們盡可能地簡化設置，以便更加嚴格地維護我們的設備，不允許冗餘等，但真正確保我們專注於使用現有的設備進行交付。順便說一句，我確實認為這是我們在美國灣看到的資產基礎改善的徵兆。

We're seeing it in everything from what we call, well reservoir and facilities management to producing more out of our existing wells and infrastructure. We're seeing it in the stability of our planning sequence when it comes to turnarounds and the like. We're seeing it in the cost structure. We're seeing it in the availability and reliability stats. So across the patch, this is starting to really become much more structural and intrinsic in the way we're driving the business.

我們在各個方面都看到了這一點，從我們所說的井庫和設施管理到利用現有井和基礎設施生產更多產品。當談到週轉等問題時，我們可以從規劃序列的穩定性中看到這一點。我們在成本結構中看到了這一點。我們在可用性和可靠性統計數據中看到了這一點。因此，在整個補丁過程中，這開始真正變得更加結構化和內在化，成為我們推動業務的方式。

Part of your question was also what all this means with the change of the administration. Clearly, with the Big Beautiful Bill, there is also now a much steadier lease sale schedule that's planned for the next 15 years to a year, which, of course, is critical to be able to keep these facilities full.

您的問題的一部分也是政府更迭意味著什麼。顯然，隨著《大美麗法案》的實施，未來 15 年到一年內也制定了更穩定的租賃銷售計劃，這當然對於維持這些設施的滿載運作至關重要。

And that gives me a lot more comfort that we will see that opportunity to continue to tie back to many of our facilities. And with new hubs like Whale and Sparta and some terrific ZIP codes, that does mean that we will have many of the key hubs that allow us to be able to continue to bring new volumes in. So a good story and I think a great example of how performance discipline and simplification are coming to life.

這讓我更加放心，我們將看到繼續與我們的許多設施連結的機會。有了 Whale 和 Sparta 等新樞紐以及一些很棒的郵政編碼，這確實意味著我們將擁有許多關鍵樞紐，使我們能夠繼續引入新的業務量。所以，我認為這是一個很好的故事，也是一個很好的例子，說明了績效紀律和簡化是如何實現的。

On refining, 2026. Look, the current reality is that market, of course, went through a challenging period for the first half of the year. You'll have seen the July numbers and what you're seeing in strength with margins moving to double digits at the moment.

煉油方面，2026年。看看，目前的現實是，市場當然在上半年經歷了一段充滿挑戰的時期。您可能已經看到了七月份的數據，並且看到了強勁的成長勢頭，利潤率目前已升至兩位數。

In particular, it's diesel that is in short supply. Inventories are relatively low at the moment. So you could have a more robust market for all products for the second half of the year. But it will all depend on where geopolitics goes. It all depends on where the tariffs impact will go.

尤其是柴油供應短缺。目前庫存相對較低。因此，今年下半年所有產品的市場都會更加強勁。但這一切都取決於地緣政治的走向。這一切都取決於關稅的影響範圍。

Where we sit, I mean, I think the portfolio we have is the portfolio that we think allows us to optimize as well as we can. We have the critical hubs in our portfolio. The Dutch hub, the German hub. We have Canada. We have the US. And those are the ones that we are optimizing around.

我的意思是，我認為我們所擁有的投資組合是我們認為可以讓我們盡可能優化的投資組合。我們的投資組合中擁有關鍵樞紐。荷蘭樞紐、德國樞紐。我們有加拿大。我們有美國。這些正是我們正在優化的。

Our traders don't just depend, by the way, on the refineries. They depend very much on the flow of third-party products. They depend on our shipping length. They depend on our blending storage. It's all these arteries that are allowing us to be able to create value out of that market, and I think we are well positioned to continue to do that.

順便說一句，我們的貿易商不僅僅依賴煉油廠。它們非常依賴第三方產品的流量。它們取決於我們的運輸長度。它們依賴我們的混合儲存。正是這些動脈使我們能夠從該市場中創造價值，我認為我們已準備好繼續這樣做。

Thank you for the questions there. Luke, let's go to the next question, please.

謝謝你們的提問。盧克，請我們進入下一個問題。

Peter Low, Rothschild & Co Redburn.

彼得‧洛 (Peter Low)，羅斯柴爾德雷德伯恩公司 (Rothschild & Co Redburn)。

Hi. Thanks for taking my questions. The first was just on C&P. This was the first quarter without Singapore. I think in the past, you suggested that was a heavily loss making asset. We didn't maybe quite see the step up we might have expected in that division, given that dropped out.

你好。感謝您回答我的問題。第一個就在 C&P 上。這是沒有新加坡參與的第一個季度。我認為過去您曾認為這是一項嚴重虧損的資產。考慮到退出的情況，我們可能沒有看到該部門取得我們所期望的進步。

Was that simply a result of the issues of Monica, or is there any reason to think that the benefit of that disposal might just take a little bit longer to come through? And then just very quickly on working capital, you had to build in the first half. In recent years, it looks like you typically have a bit of a seasonal release in the second half, particularly in 4Q. Are you expecting something similar this year? Thanks.

這只是莫妮卡問題的結果嗎，還是有理由認為這種處置的好處可能需要更長的時間才能顯現出來？然後，你必須在上半年迅速累積營運資金。近年來，似乎你們通常會在下半年，特別是第四季度，有一些季節性的發布。您預計今年也會有類似的情況嗎？謝謝。

So I'll be very short on this one if you don't mind, Peter. In terms of the first one in terms of CMP in Singapore, basically it's just that we only completed in -- sorry, on the first month of this. Quarter and of course that has to play out. Obviously, there's settlement amounts that always happen in any transaction, those flowed through in Q2 as well.

所以如果你不介意的話，我會簡短地講這個，彼得。就新加坡 CMP 的第一個專案而言，基本上我們只是在第一個月就完成了 — — 抱歉。季度當然必鬚髮揮作用。顯然，任何交易中都會產生結算金額，這些金額在第二季也流通了。

So you will see that, particularly on OpEx really flowing through and some of the losses that we would have had later in the year. So we'll see some of that play out. In terms of working capital, we did have a small build, as you say, it will depend quarter to quarter -- it will depend on the opportunities for us.

因此，您會看到，特別是在營運支出真正流出以及我們在今年稍後會遭受的一些損失方面。因此我們將會看到其中的一些結果。在營運資金方面，我們確實有小幅成長，正如你所說，這將取決於每個季度的情況——這將取決於我們的機會。

What we use working capital for, it's about opportunities. It's the same as any dollar, whether it's deploying it for OpEx, CapEx, distributions, et cetera. We think through very carefully where we use it and for our working capital, we'll make a choice as to what we want to do on inventory and what opportunities we see, and that will very much depend on market conditions.

我們將營運資本用於什麼目的，是為了機會。它與任何美元都一樣，無論是用於營運支出、資本支出、分配等等。我們會仔細考慮如何使用它以及我們的營運資金，我們會選擇如何處理庫存以及我們看到哪些機會，而這在很大程度上取決於市場條件。

It's quite a difficult one to predict, of course we have given a certain amount to our trading team for them to be able to deploy, but we will have those discussions with them depending on the market conditions. So I'm looking forward to seeing what they can come up with.

這是一個很難預測的問題，當然我們已經向我們的交易團隊提供了一定數量的資金以便他們能夠部署，但我們會根據市場情況與他們進行討論。因此我期待看到他們能想出什麼成果。

Thank you, Sinead and thank you, Peter. And thank you all for your questions and for joining the call.

謝謝你，Sinead，謝謝你，Peter。感謝大家的提問和參加電話會議。

In conclusion, we delivered a robust set of results in a challenging geopolitical and macroeconomic environment. We continue to remain focused on executing our strategy, transforming the portfolio that we have, and delivering on our key targets, and we are confident that our strategy is the right one to deliver more value with less emissions.

總之，我們在充滿挑戰的地緣政治和宏觀經濟環境中取得了一系列強勁的表現。我們將繼續專注於執行我們的策略，轉變我們現有的產品組合，並實現我們的關鍵目標，我們相信我們的策略是正確的，能夠以更少的排放創造更多的價值。

Wishing all of you a very pleasant end of the week and hopefully a well-deserved rest for many. Thank you very much.

祝大家週末愉快，希望許多人都能得到應有的休息。非常感謝。